USAGOLD Discussion - April 2002

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 00:02:30 MDT - Msg ID: 72455)
Without mercy: Israelis execute Arafat's elite guards
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,676624,00.html
Interesting accounts

Black Blade: There are other reports of summary executions of unarmed prisoners in the West Bank. This isn't anything new. We in the US have seen this behavior before at the hands of the Israelis. Case in point � The USS Liberty massacre in June 1967.
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 00:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 72456)
Authorities hope that removal of protection for account holders will not cause total collapse of confidence
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,677140,00.htmlJapan's savers have to share banks' pain


Snippit:

Japanese depositors will be exposed to the risks of the country's sickly banking system from today, raising concerns that a rush of withdrawals could push wobbly financial institutions over the edge. Although the country's banks hobbled through the end-of-year book-closing season without the crisis that had been widely predicted, they are still straining under the weight of trillions of yen of bad loans. As the authorities winnow out the weakest institutions, smaller regional banks and credit unions have collapsed at the rate of about one a week over the past year.

These failures made little impact on public confidence because the government has guaranteed all deposits since the financial crisis in 1997. From today, however, this protection will be scaled back, which means ordinary savers will share the pain if their institutions go under.

That has already prompted a flight to safety. Over the past 12 months, deposits in ordinary savings accounts (which will be fully protected for one more year) increased 16.3%. Since January, the price of gold has shot up by more than 40%.

That has not stopped the big banks from trying to deter savers from moving their assets. Mizuho, the world's biggest banking group, and several other institutions will cut their standard account interest rates from 0.001% a year from the current 0.02%. This means that a �1,000 deposit will make less interest in an entire year than the charge for a single ATM withdrawal.



Black Blade: In a word � "GRIM"
Waverider
(04/01/2002; 01:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 72457)
Arab policies blamed for massive flight of capital
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=46077Snip:
"The Arab League's top monetary official has lambasted Arab governments' economic and fiscal policies, saying they are to blame for an exhaustive capital flight, slow growth and a festering unemployment problem.

Manai acknowledged some progress had been made in economic reforms in the region but stressed more measures are needed. He noted most Arab governments do not have control over the interest rates because their currencies are pegged against the dollar or a basket of currencies.

"The dollar or the basket is determining the interest rate. Arab states cannot expect overseas Arab funds to return with a move by a magic stick...we should stop being emotional because such investments will start coming back if our investors feel something concrete has been achieved rather than listening to mere talk."

Recent estimates put Arab funds abroad at nearly $2.4 trillion, but officials and experts believe there is no accurate figure about such assets, which are concentrated in the West in bank deposits, bonds and real estate."

Waverider: It appears the Arabs are examining the need for financial and economic reforms to facilitate repatriation of their overseas assets. Could that be one reason ME Gold purchases have increased....hmmmm. Cheers!
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 02:23:20 MDT - Msg ID: 72458)
Arabs could check Israel through economic measures: Saddam
http://news.accesscom.net/clarinews/wed/bo/Qmideast-unrest-iraq-us.RHAV_CMV.html
Snippit:

BAGHDAD, March 31 (AFP) - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said Sunday that Arabs could halt Israel's military push in the West Bank by threatening an economic sanctions on the United States.

"If just two Arab countries used the economic threat against a part of the world which only understands the language of its own interests, the Israeli army would immediately withdraw from autonomous areas" Saddam was quoted as saying by state television.


Black Blade: He's probably right.
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 02:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 72459)
NY Crude Blasts Higher!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
NY Crude is higher by 98 cents. Light sweet crude is sitting at $27.29/bbl on fears that the war in Palestine will spread to other regions in the Middle East and even possibly lead to US intervention and ultimately to war in Iraq. There are possible actions that other OPEC members may take as well as increased odds that terrorist attacks may spread to Europe and even the US. So far Gold and Silver have not reacted to these threats.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 02:44:54 MDT - Msg ID: 72460)
Israeli Tanks Enter Bethlehem
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&u=/ap/20020401/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_palestinians_2814

Snippit:

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Israel was at war for its survival and vowed to smash Palestinian militants in an uncompromising offensive as he addressed a nation rattled by five suicide bombings in five days � including back-to-back attacks Sunday that killed 15 Israelis.

Marking a widening of the operation in the West Bank, Israeli tanks entered Bethlehem just before sunrise Monday, stopping 500 yards from the Church of the Nativity, which marks the traditional birthplace of Jesus, witnesses said. Forces also moved into the village of Al Khader, southwest of Bethlehem, witnesses said.

In Ramallah, under Israeli control since Friday, dozens of European peace activists, their arms raised and holding white flags, marched past Israeli soldiers surrounding Yasser Arafat (news - web sites)'s office to join the Palestinian leader, saying they would stay with him as human shields. Thirteen of the peace activists were arrested after they left Arafat's office, the military said. The spokesman's office said they could face charges of violating order closing Ramallah to foreigners.


Black Blade: Just on the wires is that two Palestinians went on a shooting spree killing 8 Israelis. This war is really escalating as Israeli troops and tanks invade other regions of Palestine.

Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 03:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 72461)
Russia Not Likely To Deliver Palladium (or Platinum) ..... Again

There are rumors that Russia will not deliver Palladium to Japanese markets as expected this month. Gee, what a surprise. We will have to wait and see if the dishonest managers at the TOCOM will default on PGM contracts as they have in the past. It appears that Russia's state precious metals export agency, Almazjuvelirexport simply does not have sufficient supply in their stockpile as the mining at Norilsk has been rather slow and therefore the mining of by-product PGMs has not yielded the necessary supply to meet Russian obligations. This is nothing new of course, however, I would suspect that both Palladium and Platinum prices will rise as PGM deliveries fail to materialize and TOCOM defaults are announced. It could be at least 3 months before stockpiles are built up to sufficient levels for export. We have seen this scenario play out time after time with the Russian PGM contracts.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 03:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 72462)
Japan Starts New Fiscal Year Haunted by Old Demons
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020401/japan_economy_fiscal_1.htmlSnippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan began its new fiscal year on Monday haunted by familiar demons -- weak economic data, eroding public support for scandal-tainted politicians, a corporate bankruptcy and lingering worries over banks.

Souring the first trading day of the new business year, prices of government bonds fell and the yen came under pressure, while Tokyo stocks hovered in and out of negative territory before ending flat.

Markets took their cue from disappointing results in the Bank of Japan's ``tankan'' quarterly survey, which showed corporate confidence leveling out in March after falling for five straight quarters -- worse than market forecasts of a modest improvement.


Black Blade: A study of world events and the depressed Global Economy confirms that we live in "Interesting Times". Gold and Silver portfolio insurance is a must.

Belgian
(04/01/2002; 04:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 72463)
@ Waverider - Gulf article
The Middle East and the Gulf states in particular are slowly but surely waking up from their previous US$-automatisms ! One day, the US$ will not be that holy cow, they considered almost as good (reliable) as their Gold !
The speeding and scaling up on the Dubai Gold and trade center is evidence of the increased tendency/initiative for more dollar independance . Expat US$ might even return under the form of euro currency when the euro succeeds in gaining its dept ?
The same applies for all Russian expat dollars, located in Europ.

My TI on the euro/dollar-chart is positive in favor of the euro. There must be a European advantage, connected to the temporary and artificial undervaluation of the euro to the dollar. An euro/dollar exchange rate waiting for the most opportune moment to reverse completely the proportions, together with a POG already gaining momentum.
A substantial strengthening euro against the dollar will inevitably attrackt a lot of specific attention ! Even without taking the fundamentals into consideration...the chart (pattern) is suggesting this already very strongly.
No, we don't have breaking points or reverse directional move already ! But a bottoming pattern is building, without excluding another small(er) period
of dollar strenght.
IMVHO, it is not the US$ who is in charge of the euro exchange rate. The euro decides for itself how it wants to relate to the dollar. Big difference.
The dollar cannot colonize the euro as is done with so many other currencies, where strong dollars can plunder (systemically) these countries (South Africa/Argentina/Turkey/Australia/etc...) valuables. Some day this euro-independance will be
remarked by the enslaved and even appreciated or copied. The modus operandi of the Argentine-dollar-Trap is a good up to date lesson on how the dollar and its pseudo-confidence are plundering people and states OVERNIGHT ! Nothing about this drama in European news ! You certainly guess why. Not only single emotion of all these Argintine savers who lost 2/3 of their life savings OVERNIGHT ! And still aren't able to pick up some pieces of what is left from it. But it happened to so many other innocent and unknown individuals. It might happen with the world's number one savers as well : The japanse !
Chinese, Russians and Gulfers will intuitively starting to feel from where the wind is coming. That's why the euro waits for the appropiate moment to pop up as a valuable alternative. Not too early and not too late !
Regards. Belgian.
Pippin
(04/01/2002; 04:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 72464)
Nickel62 - SierraMadre - Cavan Man : many thanks...
...for your suggestions of reading material. Some interesting hours in perspectives indeed.
Independently of the "trail", I started with Nickel62's repost of ORO/Aristotle message. Quite counter-intuitive sometimes - at least at my level.

Before I started this effort, I believed that the foundation of Economy was advanced mathematics. I now realise that it is also, or even more, related to philosophy - and basic arithmetic.

Thanks again.
Chrusos
(04/01/2002; 07:40:45 MDT - Msg ID: 72465)
The ant and the elephant - Howe case fulminations
http://pacer.mad.uscourts.gov/dc/cgi-bin/recentops.pl?filename=lindsay/pdf/howe%20memorandum%20and%20order.pdfThis is a bit late but i have been enjoying the holidays and taking a break from my pc.

Howe has fought valiantly and will go down in history as an individual who tried to reveal the gold fraud and who clearly specified the gold price manipulation by international governments and central banks on the public record.

Interestingly - the judge does not address or dispute the fact that the gold market is manipulated (somewhat like the defendants I recall). In fact he gives quite an able summary of the mechanics of manipulation indicating he might have found the evidence persuasive. However the legal point addressed is that that Reg. Howes shares are only indirectly related to the POG. So he cannot be paid damages under the Sherman anti trust act.

A direct participant who trades the gold market should be the plaintiffs or the gold mining companies themselves the judge alleges. These parties do not have the mettle of Reg Howe as we all know. Gold traders are happy to pick up the precious metal at these non precious prices and for central banks to transfer the accumulated gold wealth of millions of taxpayers in the Western nation states to private and other parties possibly purchasing it in behalf of their countries and governments. All this in a vain effort to prolong a doomed debt and fiat paper/digital currency!

In the second part of the judgement where it was argued that the defendants Greenspan Summers et al were immune from prosecution as they are specifically authorized by statute of congress to deal in gold and therefor did not exceed their authority.

Under further actions ie the BIS violates SEC law - there is complex set of legalese and the judge concludes BIS actions do not. Lastly on the fraud or violation of fiduciary duty of the parties the judge does not find any instance although this part seems a triumph of form (legalese) over substance e.g. unless your hand in the till while on camera then despite the fact that cash is missing it does not count.

The shameful and deceptive activities covered under a quilt of interlocking US legalese cases will drive US taxpayers crazy when they find out - yes we sold/ swapped/encumbered much of US the gold but we had authorization even though we didn't openly declare or show this and Congress actively supported this except for 1 man Ron Paul.

Just like Enron - the whole value has been destroyed but there is not one person to recover from. Regulators, Directors and staff, accountants, Wall street analysts, investment banks, pension fund asset managers, credit rating agencies, the press - the whole system was too stupid or actively supported or turned a blind eye to an $80 billion lie. "The emperor was fully clothed we thought - at least from our narrow perspective you can argue that he was not unclothed or if he was naked in the part we were observing we assumed, as he was the emperor, that the rest was in fact clothed."

Reminds of the Martin Mayer's quote "that derivatives are a way of shifting risk to the dumbest guy in the room"

Ultimately one gets the impression in the case judgement of ant challenging an elephant and to even get so far has proved that a very determined ant could get ten thousand times further than could ever be imagined.

Reg we SALUTE YOU for succinctly and completely revealing the gold manipulation on the public record for posterity. We commend your supreme courage and superhuman effort in your quest against all the key US Govt. financial institutions and the powerful international central bank of central banks the BIS.

BRAVO SIR.

nickel62
(04/01/2002; 07:53:48 MDT - Msg ID: 72466)
Chrusos May I join you in your tribute to :
Reg Howe, and the courageous effort he put forth? Thanks also for your analysis. It was very helpful...The Martin Mayer's quote "that derivatives are a way of shifting risk to the dumbest guy in the room"

Is the best line I have heard in days. Thanks
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(04/01/2002; 09:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 72467)
In bookstores for $14.95 (plus tax). Get it here for ONLY $5.95 ($3 shipping)!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

USAGOLD Market Commentary
(04/01/2002; 09:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 72468)
Gold Registers Strong First Quarter PerformanceNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Gold Market Brief . . . .Gold started the week retracing from recent highs despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential effect they might have on oil prices. Hong Kong, Australia and London are still closed for the Easter holiday. We'll keep this short and to the point this morning hoping to drive one important point home: Gold continues to benefit from investors worldwide adjusting their portfolios to current market conditions. For the first quarter, the yellow is up 9.6% in U.S. dollars; 10.5% in euros; 10.8% in yen and 319% against the lowly Argentina peso -- making it for the moment the world's top performing primary asset. For U.S., Japanese and European investors gold's appreciation against local currencies approaches and in some cases exceeds 40% annualized. For some of the reasons why gold has become the top performing asset internationally, please review the articles to the right under Top Gold Stories and Latest / Gold Education. (At the News & Views page)

USAGOLD
(04/01/2002; 10:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 72469)
On Becoming a Client of USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals
Randy, in reading the snippet from the ABCs just below I realized that some of the advice given was based on an erroneous presumption, i.e., that gold brokers would guide their clientele to the gold products which would meet their individual needs.

I am beginning to wonder:

One well-known gold retailer is advertising a gold bear trap which can be avoided by buying high-priced exotic rare coins and reproduction medallions at four figure prices. I would think that they can no longer refer to themselves as a "gold firm."

Another is running a television advertising program where they extol the virtues of "safe-haven" gold buying only to turn that conservative investor into a gambler through leverage plays in the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.

Two others, sell their silver and gold products at such high mark-ups, it's hard to imagine how the investor will ever get his head above water.

Check with USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals before commiting elsewhere. We can't tell you how many calls we've received from investors who have fallen for various sales pitch and then called us AFTER the damage had been done when they can't be helped.

We've been in the gold business for a long time. We have satisfied clients whose files nearly fill one room in our office. We have one of the best reputations in the business -- both with investors and the trade -- and we work hard to keep it that way.

Belgian
(04/01/2002; 10:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 72470)
What if....?
...Arafat is forced to go in (second) exile (Morocco) ?
No viable Palestinian state will ever be negociated and Gulf escalation is therefore guaranteed. US and Israel trapped in their WAT. Anti Israel events in Europ (France/Belgium). T. Blair must temporize on the Iraq issue.Not enough evidence against Saddam Hussain ?
Euroland (France) is strongly divided on the matter. Theoretically and tactically, no islamitic (!) terror acts are to be expected .
The islamic martyr/victim role is optimized (Euroland activists protecting Y.Arafat). What if Israel becomes a Libanon and US forces are lured into Israel ? How to manoeuver when more evidence of Iran's support for Palestine shows up ? This in combination with Iran being Afghanistan's neighbour. Pfffft !

Dollar declined 1% against the euro as happened with 9/11!?
Is there a consensus about the dollar's weakness when the US should carry on with its ME consolidation, dispite the obstructing events (unforeseen escalation) in Israel ?
Or is it POO (rise) that indicates dollar's weakness ? A POO above the 27 1/2 $ is a break out of the declining price-channel pattern (TA/TI).
Cavan Man
(04/01/2002; 11:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 72471)
then....
armageddon?
Pippin
(04/01/2002; 11:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 72472)
Suicide bombing due to religion ? New to me.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46507-2002Apr1.htmlFirst paragraph article in the Washington post (URL above):

Quote
<>
EndQuote

First time I read that the reason for the bombing is RELIGION ?? What does this mean ? Any reason for the relationship ?
Sierra Madre
(04/01/2002; 12:03:35 MDT - Msg ID: 72473)
Pippin: what that means....

What that means is that the person you quoted, is not capable of thinking clearly.

Sierra
Waverider
(04/01/2002; 12:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 72474)
Anti-Israel protests intensify across Arab world
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=147597&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0Snip:
"Police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrators headed toward the Israeli Embassy in Cairo as Arabs took to the streets for a fourth straight day of anti-Israeli protests on Monday, keeping up the pressure on their governments to get tougher with Israel.
Police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrators headed toward the Israeli Embassy in Cairo as Arabs took to the streets for a fourth straight day of anti-Israeli protests on Monday, keeping up the pressure on their governments to get tougher with Israel.

Palestinian Planning Minister Nabil Shaath on Sunday rejected U.S. criticism that Yasser Arafat can do more to stop Palestinian suicide attacks. "President Arafat is a hostage. The Palestinian people in Ramallah are hostages of Israeli forces, and the American president speaks of Israel's right to defend itself ... This is very astonishing. We have not seen this before," Shaath said after talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher.

In Iraq, President Saddam Hussein urged Arab countries to adopt "economic measures" against Israel and its supporters. He did not elaborate, but the ruling Baath party in a statement called on the Arabs to use oil as a weapon against Israel, apparently by cutting off supplies to the West in order to force Western powers to pressure Israel.

Waverider: Begium, you are right. But there is a variable here that shouldn't be underestimated and that is Saddam. He's using the situation to his advantage to strengthen relationships with his neighbors and convince the Arabs to cut off oil supplies...then how does the US respond...Many Arab nations are calling for an immediate UN presence in Palestine - where are they...or does the west want this to escalate?
Chrusos
(04/01/2002; 12:50:30 MDT - Msg ID: 72475)
Mid East Terror War - some of the hard facts
I refer to Black Blade (04/01/02; 00:02:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 72455)
Without mercy: Israelis execute Arafat's elite guards


USA Gold is a gold site and Black Blades news snippets are extremely valuable to keep us informed of events that will impact gold. I prefer HIS economic news or straight war news but one-sided sniping at the most complex issue in the world the Mideast is not helpful.

Just like I wouldn't go to the normal media to find out what's up in the gold market I don't go there to find out what's happening in Israel. I subscribe to a number of first rate intelligence briefings as well as other media and persons on the ground. I feel no more sorry for Arafats Elite guards than I do for Bin Ladens elite guard. They are exactly the same � international terror groups. Do you suppose that if a Palestinian state was established it would follow western democratic principles and open society practices? Or would it join their comrades on the axis of evil? Every thing was offered to Arafat by Barak who wanted to prove that Arafat did not want peace. He wants war and is trying to ignite a holy war over the whole of the Mideast in which many Americans are likely to be killed both in the war theatre and at home before it is over.

The Palestinians are Jordanians displaced when colonial powers drew lines in the sand � naturally Jordan doesn't want them hence they don't go home to their brothers who own 22 times the territory of Israel in the mideast so they sit in refugee camps rejected by their own people. From age 3 they are taught to hate, act out suicide bombings and killings and this constant incitement continues day and night in the Palestinian and Arab media. Want to see pictures of the Palestinians rejoicing when the 9-11 attacks took place? The Palestinian holy martyrs come and collect their suicide belts and briefing from Palestinian police headquarters or groups of which Arafat is the head. Many of these terrorists and their explosives are transported in Palestinian ambulances.

Arafat is master of deception. Just like Bin Laden claims he is a peace loving man of God but the US is the super aggressor and root cause of every world problem for the faithful as they use their global reach and power to terrorize and victimize peace loving followers of Islam who then are forced to declare Jihad in retaliation.

Here is a conservative report extract on the PLO compound in Ramallah which incidentally sits on top of massive tunnels with serious military hardware � this is just one of hundreds of similarly politically incorrect intelligence briefings.

""Bush disclosed that Secretary of State Colin Powell had been unable to reach Prime Minister Ariel Sharon by telephone because Sharon was not taking calls after the Tel Aviv caf� suicide bombing. In this latest terror outrage, 30 Israelis were injured, 10 seriously, most of them youngsters out on the town on Saturday night.

DEBKAfile's sources report that the prime minister had a second reason for not taking overseas calls: He had just issued ultimatums to the Palestinian West Bank security chief, Jibril Rajoub, in Bitunya, and to Yasser Arafat in his besieged office in Ramallah. Rajoub was told to hand over Tanzim chief Marwan Barghouti to the soldiers encircling his command post. Arafat was called on to surrender top master terrorists responsible for dozens of serious attacks, who were enjoying sanctuary in his quarters. Among them were organizers of Israeli minister Rehavam Zeevi's assassination last year.

Arafat's response, according to military sources, was adamant: If Israeli troops attempted to take the men under his protection and remove any more documents from his office, he would fight to the death.

This brought the Israel-Palestinian standoff to a critical point. Sharon could make good on his ultimatum, send the troops in to seize the terrorist chiefs at whatever cost. Or else, both sides could take a step back from the brink, letting the wanted men trickle out from the confinement of the two-room apartment, one by one. In this tense situation, Sharon decided not to lay himself open to international pressure and ordered his aides to stop putting through calls.

Arafat, for his part, made the international lines hum, pleading with world leaders to save him from great danger, without explaining that he was using his personal immunity to shelter top terrorists and send suicide bombers on the rampage in Israeli cities.

According to military sources, the Israeli prime minister is running the Ramallah operation in person because of the high stakes involved.

In the 48 hours of the Ramallah operation, military intelligence and Shin Beit operatives, who went in with Israeli forces, collected documentary proofs from Arafat's presidential suite linking the Palestinian leader in person and his most trusted lieutenants -- some with high diplomatic standing in the international community -- to some of the most horrifying terror outrages in Israeli cities, including Jerusalem. DEBKAfile can report exclusively that Israel has passed these findings to President Bush, together with the first results of the interrogation of Sahar Habash, one of Arafat's closest aides, who is the biggest fish rounded up by Israeli troops since the onset of the Ramallah operation early Friday.

Habash, an apparently gray figure, is charged with his leader's most vital confidential tasks. In January 2001, DEBKAfile first exposed his function as chief coordinator of Arafat's connections and communications with the Lebanese Hezbollah and the al-Qaida militants hiding in -- and passing through -- the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. On Feb. 17, DEBKAfile reported that Sahar Habash was involved in setting up the visit to the Gaza Strip of the al-Qaida shoe-bomber, Richard Reid, in July 2001, six months before he attempted to blow up a Paris-Miami American Airliners flight. Habash was instrumental in obtaining explosives for Reid's operation, passing them to him through the Gazan Hamas activist, Nabil Aqal.

Sharon is anxious to lay hands not only on Zeevi's killers, but also on the men and documents that will demonstrate to the U.S. president beyond doubt the degree of Arafat's complicity and that of his close followers in crimes of terror -- not only in Israel, but also their interaction with international terrorists""

The Bush establishment knows exactly what's going on despite posturing for the benefit of the press and the UN. Cheney read the riot act. The US is pulling out of Saudi which sends billions to the radical Islamic schools to appease their masses while their leaders swan around with Harems in London. I live in South Africa the large Moslem community here treat it as common knowledge and basic unarguable fact that the US is a global aggressor and victimizes both poor and Islamic nations and forces peace loving followers to at least resist or even better retaliate against a global anti Allah power � the US.

A US Christian lady who discovered her Jewish roots issues a convenient daily summary sent on email. To subscribe visit www.foryourglory.org.

Alternatively Worldnet daily will give you the conservative viewpoint. Also Konigs site is useful roundup http://www.watch.org/articles.html?mcat=1
� there are more conservative sites but I have just stuck to these to give more balanced view than in the myopic media.

This coming war on global terror fanatics is going to probably make the cold war, which we have lived most of lives our under, look like the good old days. Gentlemen controlled the nuclear triggers while the CIA and KGB played cat and mouse with one another. You think the US wants to attack Iraq just because they are bully boys or because they know what a nuclear device will do in the hands of these fanatics who would blow away a city in the same way we would exterminate a vermin rat.

Your government does not want to unduly alarm your people and keep your bubble economy going but make no mistake they know exactly what they are dealing with � US friends of mine who toured ground zero with the FBI do as well.

"The Palestinians are so blinded by their narcissistic rage that they have lost sight of the basic truth civilization is built on: the sacredness of every human life, starting with your own. If America, the only reality check left, doesn't use every ounce of energy to halt this madness and call it by its real name, then it will spread. The Devil is dancing in the Middle East, and he's dancing our way.

� The New York Times, March 31, 2002"
Belgian
(04/01/2002; 13:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 72476)
@ Waverider
Indeed, Saddam pushes for the POO weapon. He invaded Kuwait for the simple reason that other ME oilstates (SA) didn't want to follow him in his demand for a POO of 21$/barril !
Saddam is an oil hawk.
Israel doesn't want UN troops as neutral buffer. As long as the US keeps supporting their vision of a final deportation(exodus) of all Palestines to neighbouring Arabic states (Jordan/Egypt). As you suggest, there is that escalation strategy � la Kissinger and Co. The Palestines are the actors/victims of the Arabian agenda. Needles to repeat the sadness of all the atrocities that go with this.

Isn't it remarkable that *no-one* dares to mention the POO as the economical fundamental behind all this suffering and manoeuvering. POO is always mentioned as a side-effect and never as the main cause ! The reasons for this are divergent. The globe's polarizations would change dramatically. Crude Oil would be seen as a tool of superiority and consequently, generate less sympathy for the Arab suppression/domination. Euroland doesn't mention
the oil fundamental for a variety of reasons (Tax-revenues).
And the US has a global strategy for dominating cheap oil(ME + Caspian).

Israel has no oil and must stay under the US (economical/political) umbrella. All the 50 year old problems could be solved at once if this globe could agree on a fair price of oil wich serves the widiest of interested parties. But such a positive action is not even considered by the other-globalists.

That's why the theories (gold/euro/oil/dollar-concept) of TG are so positively interesting (to me) !

mikal
(04/01/2002; 13:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 72477)
@Chrusos
Your "hard facts" are the brainwashed delusions of an egocentric American sycophant, resigned to share the fate of his barbaric mentors. Can you find some better sources to quote than declared socialists, Zionists, and controlled media! At the same time, you attempt to assassinate Black Blades character, all with more abstractions and distortions than Chairman Greenspan, without any civility.
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 13:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 72478)
Re: Chrusos � Middle East

Come now, they are all terrorists. That is why we will never see peace in the Middle East. Isn't it quite odd that if one murders a million with an organized army he's a conqueror, whereas if he kills a few with some disorganized individuals he's a terrorist? The situation is more complex than that. One-sided? Hmmm� I would think that both sides are equally at fault here. I also personally think that we in the west should profit from the situation and sell weapons to all sides and let them go at it. Perhaps full-scale annihilation of one side over the other (it doesn't matter who) is needed to finish this nonsense once and for all.

Israel is a nation born out of terrorism. After, even Ariel Sharon was a member of the Irgun, a terrorist organization that murdered British citizens among others. He also gave orders for the attack on the USS Liberty where helpless unarmed US sailors were machine-gunned down in lifeboats (I thought that was rather cold-blooded myself). He also gave the order to slaughter men, women, and children in UN refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. Sorry, but I don't see any real difference between either side. Arafat, Sharon, Bin Laden, Netanyahu, Saddam Hussein, etc. � They are all terrorists.

Aside form that, I would not call DEBKA anything but an Israeli tabloid. They have never been reliable as a news source. I thought it strange that they claimed that the Mainland Chinese army invaded Afghanistan and captured 18 US military personnel. Credibility is certainly a problem for DEBKA.

On the positive side, we should see the POG and POO rise and break loose from market manipulators as this situation in the ME deteriorates. As I see it, there is nothing wrong with anyone profiting from the Israeli-Arab folly in the ME.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 14:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 72479)
BushSpeaks.com under investigation by Justice Department
http://news.yahoo.com@64.45.54.134/bush%20speaks%20under%20investigation%20by%20united%20states%20justice%20department.html
Snippit:

United States Attorney General John Ashroft disagrees, "The owner of this web site is a foreign national who had permission to be in this country as long as he upheld our laws and system of government. His web site was unpatriotic, offensive and it not only undermines the military goals of our great country, it puts our military at risk. As far as I'm concerned, he gave up any rights he may have had under the law. We're looking into what charges we may bring against him."


Black Blade: April Fools Day joke or just another erosion of the Bill of Rights? Safer not to criticize or speak up. Best to keep quiet and watch as they come and send off the neighbors to the "camps". We really do live in "Interesting Times" Hmmm�
Old Yeller
(04/01/2002; 14:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 72480)
Point/counter -point at MS
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020401-mon.html#anchor0
Always a dissenting opinion,especially when the subject of unsustainable US debt loads come up.Personally,I favor Roach's opinion as it seems much more logical.

One can never discount the trickery the Fed may have in store though.

On with the show.
Old Yeller
(04/01/2002; 14:25:09 MDT - Msg ID: 72481)
Bolstering Roach's case
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/b-wall_c03292002224412.gif
One little graph says it quite nicely.
Guided
(04/01/2002; 14:28:35 MDT - Msg ID: 72482)
Precious Metals and Terror
Come on. Let's at least respect the integriy of MK's forum. If not the feelings of others on some off topic subjects. Kindly leave this Israel, Arab thing alone aside from gathering and reporting the facts related to PM's as some here do so well. I doubt that few if any here have any real understanding of that.
I could name an act that I consider terror at it's worst conducted on millions of innocents right here in the USA. And, all American taxpayers have had a part in funding it, like it or not.
In the end, we are each responsible for the acts we do. Let's stay on the subject.
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 14:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 72483)
Middle East Conflict

The Middle East conflict is the most serious event of late that has put pressure on the worlds markets. This has had an effect on both the price of Oil and Gold. The Middle East question is not something that should be avoided because someone might have his/her "feelings" hurt. To bury ones head in the sand is to ignore one of the most serious events that will drive energy prices higher and Gold out of the manipulators hands. As the conflict escalates it will drive the price of Oil and Gold as it threatens to spread throughout a region that is vital to the economic survival of every nation on earth.

- Black Blade

Chrusos
(04/01/2002; 14:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 72484)
Mid East Mess
Hey mikal

Your post tells me a lot about yourself. Firstly you threaten a fate for me suitable for that of my barbaric mentors � I presume this refers to the US which though flawed has much I admire.

I never "assassinated" (Freudian slip?) BB's character at all. I said his posts were extremely valuable but the one was one-sided on the complex Israeli Palestinian issue.

I can also back up all the other facts I stated. I have also seen shocking videos of the Israeli troops breaking the arms of Palestinian stone throwers.

They are hard facts and not Greenspan abstractions but who wants untidy facts in an emotional issue that is going to split the world into 2 camps. Like Mugabe we don't need to pay any attention to facts. We can call famine - plenty and oppression - freedom and murderous deceived suicide bombers - holy martyrs beloved of Allah and give out sweets and celebrate with the parents when one of our teenage children blows herself up in a restaurant

I am not entering into any further debate, as this is a gold site.


BB

Thank you for your post. I have tried to study the recent history of the Jewish Palestinian issue, which goes back to Ishmael and Isaac. War is barbaric full of atrocities the US civil war or the second WW, where whole cities were bombed by both sides.

I haven't studied the Liberty issue but will do so. Of course as I recall there is also the Jewish refugee ship that was turned away from US ports consigning the Jews aboard who were fleeing from the holocaust to certain death. I am not going into the Lebanese camp issue, which as you are well informed, know is not as simple as you make out.

Debka are no more infallible than any other news source whatever its sympathies � I read many to try and get a picture of what is actually happening.

Yes this whole deadly mess is likely to be positive for the POG and that is something to rejoice about. I've said my piece and I'm sticking to the gold war from now on, on USA Gold - its much more fun and the villains are more clearly identifiable! At least to goldbugs that is!!

Thanks for all the timely posts they save me a lot of time especially because you post an extract so one can see if its worthwhile to pay a visit to the URL

Adios

Chrusos



Guided
(04/01/2002; 15:56:58 MDT - Msg ID: 72485)
Black Blade
Bad choice of words on my part. Should have said opinions rather than feelings.
A Canadian
(04/01/2002; 16:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 72486)
MIDEAST SOLUTION
The obvious answer is that ARAFAT and SHARON need to roll up a big one and burn it together.
The resulting peace accord would be bad for the price of my physical but I couldn't care less cause it aint for sale.
Cavan Man
(04/01/2002; 17:52:06 MDT - Msg ID: 72487)
@Pippin
If you pay close attention, you can observe that we are devolving into an "US vs them" paradigm. People who are so frustrated economically, socially and politically that they will commit suicide before their 19th birthday are classified not only as terrorists but also religious fanatics. For them, a career as a "freedom fighter" is not an option. What is lost upon most is the fact that although Islam has always spread by the sword (I'm not an apologist for them), the core issues are large masses of people living lives of complete hopelessness who have a natural and historic affiliation with solidarity vis a vis their preferred form of divine worship who must act out their frustrations. This solidarity, when targeted by unscrupulous and so-called "leaders" as means of their own empowerment and raison d'etre then becomes lethal.

I wonder what Thomas Jefferson would say; better yet, John Adams?
Mr Gresham
(04/01/2002; 18:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 72488)
Chrusos, BB
Way to do it, bro's. State it, and move on. None of us made the situation, and none of us are involved as propagandists for either side. We _are_ pro-active types, problem-solvers, so we look for causes and effects. We land on some opinions that way, and they clash with others' opinions. But we're not pointing guns at each other, thank God. A different accident of birth, and any of us might be in the same pickle. "There but for... go I." Kind of humbling, when you think about it.

You've shown respect, for each other, and for all readers whose thoughts you touch each day. Keeping this a "heads up", problem-sniffing-out, and possibly -solving, place. Thanks!
Canuck
(04/01/2002; 18:54:29 MDT - Msg ID: 72489)
Pondering
Here's a statement that I heard a few times over the weekend which I feel is most important for the immediate and near future.

During the recent Arab Summit, the Arab nations declared that "an attack of Iraq would be construed as an attack to all Arabs."

As an aside I believe I heard that all journalists in Israel were moved out of 'harms way' ie: no commentary of Arafat's condition. What have we heard of his condition today?. Is Arafat a dead man?

Connecting the dots of paragraph 1 and 3 might lead one to believe that any foul conclusion (re: Arafat) will immediately cause a 'clear and present danger' of horrific
magnitudes.

Thoughts?

On a different note, there is a 'pure-play' non-hedger on the TSE that I watch very closely. It is a very low cost producer that I have marked as a proxy for the price of gold. There are now clear definitions in stock prices for companies that will prosper for a rising POG and others that have stalled fearing a rapidly rising POG. Be careful!!

It was up handsomely again today, as were many other gold producers. The XAU and the HUI were up smartly as well. I heard recently that the POO has a 3 or 4 dollar war premium attached, is there a war premium attached to gold at this moment, and if so, how much?

TIA.

Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 19:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 72490)
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Wall Street Reacts to War

Snippit:

The other uncertainty for the financial markets is perhaps the most difficult one for the markets to digest, which is war itself. It appears now that the decades long standoff in the Middle East will have to be settled once again on the battlefield. Only when one side emerges as victor will the prospects for peace stand a chance. The failure over the last decade of diplomacy to bring resolution to conflict makes war the only solution. The violence that has been escalating since September of 2000 is now coming to a head. Like the last era of violence in the Middle East, it once again pits Arafat against his old nemesis, Ariel Sharon. The seriousness of the approaching war took on greater significance this weekend as Israel called for general mobilization of its reserves. The military is calling up between 20,000-30,000 troops. The fact that troops were called up during a major religious holiday gives emphasis to the serious nature of the approaching conflict.

At the same time, Washington is building up a major military presence in the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces in the region have increased significantly due to the war in Afghanistan. However, new troops and equipment are being moved into the region -- a fact that hasn't been lost on the financial markets. The fact that the U.S. and Israel are mobilizing speaks of military conflict in the days ahead. U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf have gone from 25,000 to now 80,000. In Kuwait American troops have doubled from 5,000 to 10,500 since last September. Meanwhile in Saudi Arabia, weapons and military gear are being pulled out of storage. Administration officials are quick to say the Gulf buildup is not a prelude to an invasion of Iraq. However, if they were, it wouldn't be substantiated anyway. They are obviously there for a reason -- peacekeeping isn't one of them. The force is too large for that.

In the general markets gold, silver, oil, natural gas, defense stocks were being accumulated by investors. Other areas doing well were drug, biotechs, and chip stocks. On the selling side were airline stocks which fell as the price of oil rose to within a hair of $27 a barrel. Crude futures soared above $27 a barrel with another suicide bombing in Jerusalem. Saddam Hussein also issued a plea to the Arab world to use the oil weapon against the U.S. as they did in the Yom Kippur War back in 1973. Volume levels came in at an anemic 1.04 billion on the NYSE and at 1.55 billion on the Nasdaq. Market breath was negative by 17-14 on the NYSE and by 20-16 on the Nasdaq.



Black Blade: Perhaps this snippit from Puplava gets my point across much better. Unfortunately I agree that war is the only possible outcome. These two enemies have been at war since the two sons of Abraham have disputed their birthright. This family squabble will never be settled short of annihilation of one side or the other. That is nature � in fact we have a name for this � it's called "natural selection". The real uncertainty is how far this current "squabble" will spread through the region. The implications for petroleum and precious metals is obvious.

Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 19:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 72491)
Pro forma earnings falling out of favor
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/03/31/BU240874.DTL&type=business
Snippit:

With corporate America desperate to avoid even a hint of financial wrongdoing after Enron's collapse, an accounting tool long used to pump up earnings reports is quietly falling out of favor.

Pro forma results, which exclude one-time expenses from a company's earnings, are being subtly de-emphasized by some of the firms that relied on them in the past. Some of these newly scrubbed earnings will likely be on display in the coming weeks as Wall Street gears up for its next round of quarterly earnings reports.

Merrill Lynch recently told its stock analysts not to rely too heavily on pro forma when rating companies even though Wall Street typically bases its predictions for a firm's performance on the numbers. The moves come as analysts and investors submit corporate earnings to greater scrutiny, punishing companies whose reports even suggest unusual accounting.


Black Blade: The only purpose of Pro Forma accounting is to deceive and confuse investors. Once investors realize that the Emperor wears no clothes, then they will severely punish any corporation that uses Pro Forma accounting as having suspect earnings (ala Enron and Global Crossing).
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 19:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 72492)
Price of gold set to soar
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=28960960&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

GOLD prices are about to surge as the world's central bankers prepare to renew a 'ceasefire' on sales of their own bullion reserves. The present deal, agreed in Washington in September 1999, expires in 2004, but talks behind the scenes suggest it will be extended, or even made permanent.

Black Blade: Already presented here before but from a different source. Word is getting around.

Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 19:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 72493)
Time To Buy Japanese Stocks Or Gold?
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/020401/0401inlwatch_1.htmlSnippit:

Yes, but what about the exchange-rate currency risk? If Japan does expand its money supply, doesn't that mean--all other things being equal--that the yen will depreciate? Dessauer says nothing in this context about exchange rates--it's a blind spot for this investment letter.

But Harry Schultz of the International Harry Schultz Letter is acutely aware of yen risk and the gold buying it's provoking among the sorely-tried Japanese public. This famous 1970s gold bug, who baled out after its historic 1980 price spike, is once again bullish on gold: "In due course the Japanese people will own over 70% of the world's gold! Wrap your mind around the implications of that!"

Black Blade: The Japanese could buy all the available Gold bullion several times over. It is certainly something to think over though. As Harry Schultz says: "In due course the Japanese people will own over 70% of the world's gold! Wrap your mind around the implications of that!"

Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 20:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 72494)
Investors with mettle turn to gold
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_1056758,00.html
'Hard assets' were winners in 1st quarter

Snippit:

Precious metals, natural resources, real estate and emerging markets were the mutual fund winners of the first quarter, while the already battered communications funds fell hard, fund trackers said Thursday. "Gold, natural resources and real estate -- those are the hard assets that investors flock toward in times of uncertainty," said Jeff Tjornehoj, research analyst in Denver for Lipper Inc.


Black Blade: There are more and more positive pronouncements for gold in the investing community. Today, even Merrill Lynch raised their positive outlook for Gold and the Gold mining sector. Current world events appear to have helped the POG rise and hold onto recent gains.
YGM
(04/01/2002; 20:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 72495)
Currency,Politics & Gold....
http://www.safehaven.ca/GoldenBar/GBR040102.htmGoldenBar aricle..."Excellent read".....YGM.
YGM
(04/01/2002; 21:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 72496)
Snippet..
From Another Gold Site......Which I'll not link for obvious reasons...(They sell Au)
.........................................................
"Technically, gold has established a new range with the break above $302. A test of resistance at $308 could be the next stop, with some technicians looking for $330. Support is now found between $300 and $298, and below that $292."
.........................................................
Gotta love those 'Short Sighted' technicians whether it be price wise or time wise....After years of mining/waiting/watching and even fighting (thru GATA) this Goldbug believes our time "IS" now finally at hand....YGM.

"Go Physical" & "Sleep Well"
Horatio
(04/01/2002; 21:30:36 MDT - Msg ID: 72497)
Mid East
A PLAN FOR PEACE


A Letter to Kofi Annan,United Nations

It is quite evident that both sides in the mid-east conflict have chosen the most hostile people for leadership ,both are terrorists or former terrorists.
Its time for UN to do something with its troops.The Mid -East conflict can be solved simply by using UN troops to arrest Ariel Sharon and Yassar Arafat. Send them to the Hague for trial as War criminals when they should receive ten year sentences for their crimes against humanity.
Then each side can choose their second worst leaders who will probably suffer the same fate, as revenge dies hard. This should continue on down the line to their third worst set of leaders and forth worst set ,as you can see, things are getting better .At some point a set of leadership will emerge that has in mind the fate of its predecessors and will begin to think that their predecessor was not such a bad guy ,yet he went to jail . At this point the thought of increasing hostilities will cease to be an option and peace will have been achieved . This plan will take courage ,but it affords you the opportunity make the UN achieve something no one else has been able to do and your place in history will be assured..


Sincerely

A Friend
Sierra Madre
(04/01/2002; 21:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 72498)
Cavan Man: some words about a young girl who died recently...
You said:

"People who are so frustrated economically, socially and politically that they will commit suicide before their 19th birthday are classified not only as terrorists but also religious fanatics."

I hope neither you nor I nor any reader, ever has to see an eighteen-year-old daughter, sister, niece or cousin destroy herself as this young girl did.

She did not die for "economic, social or political reasons"!!

She died because her home was bulldozed; her father's business destroyed and the family penniless to feed their children; subsequently, her father and her brothers killed by Israeli bullets. Her cousins brutalized, their homes razed. Her town in ruins.

This young girl was brave, very brave. Everything of value in life for her, was destroyed by the Israelis. Vengeance is perhaps something that Americans - used to watching atrocities, on T.V., that happen to OTHERS - don't understand. She wanted revenge, she wanted it so badly, she gave her life for it.

Anybody fools with the lives of MY family, the way this girl's family was treated...you fill in the dots.

Sierra
YGM
(04/01/2002; 21:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 72499)
Horatio (04/01/02; 21:30:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72497)
Sir...You have "The Best Solution" I've heard yet.....
& so simple it is!!.........YGM.
Horatio
(04/01/2002; 22:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 72500)
Arthur Anderson ,Cabal Controllers
It appears to me that Arthur Anderson is the accounting firm for several mining companies and Enron ,who engaged in metal commodity trading.I now suspect they were involved in a Mafia like conspiricy to use dirivatives to control gold prices .Top insiders at Anderson would be in a perfect position to advise and control Dirivative trading on a World Wide scale .Such access would be necessary to do what has been done.Now with its demise ,prices seem to be rising.
None other than Paul Volker has been sent in to see to an orderly reduction in operations and maybe to cover some tracks.Hmmmmm
tedw
(04/01/2002; 22:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 72501)
Best performing sector

Wall Street Jouranl

4/01/2002 page R3

Best Performing Industry Groups Globally in the first Qrtr

#1- Precious Metals +28.7%
GoldnSilver2002
(04/01/2002; 22:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 72502)
Gold holding,cabal scared and the middle east
HMM Justifying suicide,cant be done.The people this girl killed never met here,never shot anyone or drove a tank.Imagine Arafat is hosting people who intend to attack innocent u.s citizens?Now everything is justified,didnt the us level afghan?So let me understand this,one terroist attack on u.s soil justifies what america does,but repeated terrorist attacks on Israel and the Jewish people must turn the other cheek,perhaps the world should take its own advice!

Well gold is holding above 300,dont think for one second the cabal would bring it back down if they could,but with very little gold left euro banks now say they will extend the wash agreement for five years or perhaps forever'so much for Bundesbank giving the cabal away.They are desperate and know the tide has turned,their supplies of physical are so low they can sell no more.This is indeed a bull run which will go on for years.A breakout is building,
along with rising oil prices,the spectre of inflation and the dow now going sideways.For a look at history go look at the charts for 1979.It starts the year well under 200.In may it begins a radical climb,almost vertical.Just 8 months later in jan 1980 it peaks at 850 per oz.Do we really believe all this bad news will just go away?Ill go on record gold will be over 1000 per oz by jan 03,after all gold wasnt supressed in 1979 and terrorsits werent blowing up whole chunks of america.The belief that life will just suddenly go back to normal now are sheer fantasy,foolishness and blatant denial of truth.When gold goes it explodes'soon the black star will reach critical mass and nothing will hold it back,not even the cabal!
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 22:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 72503)
Japan's grads enter jobless market
http://www.iht.com/articles/53142.html

Snippit:

TOKYO With Japan's economic engine stuck in neutral for over a decade, the recession's invisible victims are young people starting out in a radically changed job market.
.
Two decades ago, about 90 percent of Akirudai graduates who wanted to work went straight into good-paying, stable, full-time jobs. This month, about half of the work-bound graduates drifted into part-time, temporary jobs with no benefits. Starting monthly salaries have fallen to $1,000 today, from $1,200 six years ago, said Tamiichi Okuyama, the school's guidance counselor.
.
Officially, Japan's unemployment rate is 5.3 percent. But Richard Katz, an American economist, argues that the real rate would be 8.5 percent if government statisticians counted discouraged workers, who are not currently looking for work, and part-time workers who lose their jobs. Official statistics show that young men have the nation's highest unemployment rate, 10.7 percent. "Unemployment is at least double the official figures," said Kiyoshi Sasamori, president of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, known as Rengo.


Black Blade: This is a very "grim" sign of the times in Japan. The economy is trashed and as Japan slips beneath the waves, many Japanese fear for their savings and continue to purchase Gold bullion in a "flight to quality" away from insolvent Japanese banks. Next year at this time all savings deposits will be restricted to very low deposit insurance. The people are being set up for the "fleecing", and the lucky one will have prepared by bailing out of banks and into hard assets.
.
Mr Gresham
(04/01/2002; 22:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 72504)
I've always wondered...
if someone might have a more deadly bombing planned some day, especially if the Dome of the Rock (Al Aqsa mosque) is threatened by the Temple Mount project...

"When ye therefore shall see the abomination of desolation, spoken of by Daniel the prophet, stand in the holy place, (whoso readeth, let him understand:) Then let them which be in Judaea flee into the mountains. . . . For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be" (Matthew 24: 15, 16, 21).

"For the days shall come upon thee, that thine enemies shall cast a trench about thee, and compass thee round, and keep thee in on every side, and shall lay thee even with the ground, and thy children within thee; and they shall not leave in thee one stone upon another; because thou knewest not the time of thy visitation" (Luke 19:41-44).

"O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, thou that killest the prophets, and stonest them which are sent unto thee, how often would I have gathered thy children together, even as a hen gathereth her chickens under her wings and ye would not! Behold your house is left unto you desolate" (Matthew 23:37,38).

"And when ye shall see Jerusalem compassed with armies, then know that the desolation thereof is nigh." Luke 21:20

They have healed also the hurt of the daughter of my people slightly, saying, Peace, peace; when there is no peace. Jeremiah 6:14

For they have healed the hurt of the daughter of my people slightly, saying, Peace, peace; when there is no peace. Jeremiah 8:11

"...A Time for Peace, I swear it's not too late." "Turn, Turn, Turn" -- Bob Dylan/The Byrds


Waverider
(04/01/2002; 22:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 72505)
Japan's day of reckoning put off
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/views/story/0,2276,40588,00.html?Snippit:
"JAPAN entered the fiscal new year yesterday with the satisfaction of having avoided a much-feared 'March crisis'.

Unfortunately, this simply means the day of reckoning has been put off, and when the day does come - as come it must - it will require actions more radical and painful for having been delayed so long.

It became obvious a month or so ago that the government was simply buying time when its package of emergency financial measures turned out to be little more than an exercise in propping up the Tokyo stock market. The aim was obviously to allow banks to hobble through to the end of fiscal 2001 without showing huge losses on their equity portfolios - and thus suffering a capital crisis.

In coming weeks, it is likely that economic data relating to Japan's exports, industrial production and private capital investment will give the appearance of recovery. But this should not fool anyone into thinking that the root problems have been solved. The day of reckoning is approaching, and will most likely arrive before fiscal 2002 closes."

Waverider: Yup...more on Japan...should bode well for Gold!
Mr Gresham
(04/01/2002; 23:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 72506)
BB: Eternal enemies & natural selection
Just to put the question mark to a couple of your comments you've made several times.

The little bit I recall reading about Arab/Jew history had them living together in the Holy Land, and slaughtered side-by-side when the Crusaders came through. Under the Ottoman Empire, Jews lived mostly undisturbed in Moslem countries. I don't have time to read up on this now, so don't hold me to it; just off the top of the ol' cranium.

Natural selection: Weaponry changes all that. It allows some pusillanimous puke with a degree from Oxford to order strong brave men to charge into machine guns. It allows an oil sheik at home in his Geneva mansion to dial up Henry Kissinger and order up some F-16s. The mechanical extension of man's ability to mangle the bodies of others has clipped the feedback wires of natural selection and made the process into a SYSTEMIC selection; what system can harness the most violence (and human conformity/compliance) to its own self-perpetuation. (Temporary as it may be, as it burns its support platform out from under itself.)
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 23:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 72507)
Qwest sees goodwill charge; may face SEC action
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020401/telecoms_qwest_sec_6.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, April 1 (Reuters) - Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) warned on Monday it may take a charge up of to $30 billion due to accounting changes on goodwill, and said the Securities and Exchange Commission staff recommended action against the telephone company for excluding certain information from a January 2001 earnings report.


Black Blade: More phony baloney accounting comes under fire. I used to have Qwest shares that I acquired during the US West merger but I sold this dog. I just couldn't stand the absurd accounting and the dishonesty displayed by CEO Nacchio any longer. This company or any number of others can be the next Enron. Beware when investing and insure with Gold and Silver.

Mr Gresham
(04/01/2002; 23:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 72508)
Al Martin: Beating About the Bushes
http://www.almartinraw.com/column54.htmlThis guy does NOT like Republicans.

Get gold -- because you don't know WHO'S driving the bus!
Black Blade
(04/01/2002; 23:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 72509)
Re: Mr. Gresham


You forgot the alliance of Spain's Sephardic Jewish community and the Moors. The Sephardic Jews were the Gold (money) managers for the Moors. Unfortunately they seem to have always let their petty differences get the best of them eventually. Note that there is a community of Jews who live in Iran. After several years of living together peacefully, the Jewish males were arrested and charged with treason (likely trumped up charges) and were sentenced from several years in prison to death. Eventually they were freed after legal appeals (which I find amazing as this is the revolutionary regime where the courts are ruled by the Mullahs). Granted many Israelis and Arabs would just as soon that the extremists (Jewish and Muslim) would just kill each other off so they could get on with their lives. Unfortunately these few periods of time where both sides live together in peace don't seem to last. Maybe it is time that we in the west just wash our hands of them and let the chips fall where they may. Heck, since they all claim to be God's chosen people - maybe we will get to see whose side God is on after all ;-)

As far as Natural Selection is concerned, You may be right. Therefore we just may have to even up the odds by selling weapons to all sides, and as some of my old friends are fond of saying � "let God sort em� out".

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Grubstaker
(04/01/2002; 23:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 72510)
Thank You Chrusos...excellent post..!!
Chrusos (4/1/02; 12:50:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 72475)
Mid East Terror War - some of the hard facts
I refer to Black Blade (04/01/02; 00:02:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 72455)

It seems the self-appointed "expert" posters don't appreciate a reality check..
I encourage you to continue ...the balance is appreciated and most welcome...
Regards and well wishes to you and yours,
Grubstaker
Carl H
(04/01/2002; 23:33:30 MDT - Msg ID: 72511)
Cabal's Next Move
I just received an investment newsletter touting a new gold mine just discovered in South Africa. It supposedly huge, high grade and, is strip mineable (only 60ft deep). The claim is that it could double world gold production.

Sound like a tactic to try to drive down the price of gold and the price of gold mining shares so that the gold shorts can try to get out cheap.

This smells even worse that Buba, Putin, and all the other stunts they have tried.

The cabal is desparate. I can hardly wait to have a JPMC Bankruptcy party!
Mr Gresham
(04/02/2002; 00:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 72512)
Sieg Heil, y'all
http://www.almartinraw.com/column53.html{Black Blade: I _knew_ you'd have some historic tidbits to make the discussion interesting -- always worth poking things a bit...}

"Imperial State Power in America

"Now even US postage stamps will project the supremacy of American Imperial Power into the world. The new 57-cent stamp shows an eagle, which is an exact copy of the symbol of the Waffen SS, which in turn was taken from the Imperial Praetorian eagle of Ancient Rome. This is one of the first in a new series of postage stamps being released by the US Post Office to commemorate the New Age of State Power."

A stamp using the Waffen SS design. Don't that beat all? What WILL they think of next? Real crosses with real occupants for NEXT Easter?

I confirmed this wasn't just bizarre April 1 humor (on the part of Al, or the Post Office);
the stamp is shown at

http://shop.usps.com/cgi-bin/vsbv/postal_store_non_ssl/display_products/productDetail.jsp?OID=1003615&BV_UseBVCookie=yes


G: Well, I'm shocked! Shocked to find there's Fascism going on around here! Corporal! Round up the usual suspects!

Waiter! The von Stauffenbergs look good today. But I'll have a Rommel omelette, and a side of Guderians to go. (Those WERE the Good Germans.) But, ah, can you hold the Heydrichs...and you DO trim off the Sepp Dietrichs before cooking it, don't you? ("I rode a tank...")

Tired of those stale old Boy Scout uniforms? Imagine YOUR son, glowing radiantly in his new USA Jugend uniform!

"It can't happen here" sang Frank Zappa, satirically, echoing Sinclair Lewis' book title. "Whooo-oooo could imagine...?"

--Haven't we seen this movie before, dear?
-- Yes, but I didn't realize it until it was half way through...
--oh, let's just finish it! I've sort of forgotten the ending...

"And here I sit so patiently,
waiting to find out what price
you have to pay to get out of
going through all these things twice."

----Bob Dylan, Memphis Blues
Belgian
(04/02/2002; 00:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 72513)
Crude Oil !
Important : Kuwait rushes to denounce Iraq's hard line on the POO as a weapon ! The force of "divide and rule" axiom seems still actively in place concerning Kuwait's alliance, but no so for Saudi Arabia.

A stagnant (or declining) economy + war-premiums + a prolonged period of higher POO = GDP getting more and more out of proportion with the debtberg. Only solution (as usual) = PRINT MORE DOLLARS !! These re-enforced dollar-printing demands stronger counter measures as : 1/ increased dollar hedging and 2/ more POG control !
Hedging the dollar on the gold-paper-contract-market (LBMA + outside) is done to protect/ensure the gaining intrinsic weakness of this confetti ! That same old mechanism ad nauseum. More and more dollars need to be insured/protected with less and less Physical Gold available into an atmosphere of increasing Physical Gold demand !!!

The "SPECULATIVE" war-premium on Oil can come and go and therefore less relevant. It is the consensus amongst the Arabian cartel that is much more impacting. WAT is the newest flag (name of the game) for creating divergences amongst the different cheap oil producers ! WAT is the ideal creator of violent emotions amongst leaders and people. This symphony is written and orchestrated by very silent rulers. They have this ridiculous New World Order, nightmare, night after night !
Spartacus
(04/02/2002; 01:05:22 MDT - Msg ID: 72514)
Fed Funds
http://www.bloomberg.com/
Fed Funds is up 0,44 to 2,06%.
Black Blade
(04/02/2002; 02:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 72515)
ENERGY CRISIS 2002-2003
ENERGY CRISIS 2002-2003


Energy Crisis

Energy is in chronic short supply. With energy demand rising in spite of the economic recession, energy prices over the next 12 � 18 months are certain to go a lot higher. Considering current world events and the Global Recession this may be hard for some to believe. I would not be surprised to see NY light sweet crude eclipse the $35.00/bbl price and natural gas prices greater than $8.00 Mbtu and possibly nearing last year's $10.00 Mbtu. There are many reasons why energy prices will continue rising much higher.

Oil Production

Both the Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency project that demand for oil will grow from today's 76 million bbl/day to about 120 million bbl/day in the next 20 years. Actually that is a very conservative projection. However, that oil demand will not be met. The Global Hubbert Peak for oil is likely to be reached in the next 4 to 8 years after which Global oil production begins to decline. In fact the west will be even more dependent on the Middle East for oil as western sources are already in various rates of decline. The US Hubbert Peak for oil production was reached about 30 years ago.

Even so, Middle East oil supply is not only in doubt due to unstable politics and war, but rather these fields may be nearing peak production as well (including Saudis vast fields - some over 100 years old). Saudi has actually asked foreign companies to help develop additional oil and gas production. This will probably result in marginal gains in reserves, if at all.

The former Soviet Union will be of no help either. This is in spite of nearly 20% growth in domestic energy production since 1980. The only reason that the former republics are able to export any oil at all is because there is a severe recession at home that has resulted in a drop of about 10% in demand while while marginally increasing reserves.

Also more recent exploration of Caspian Sea oil has been disappointing. Poor results from Chevron's concessions suggest that exploration activity may be severely curtailed and they are not alone. An economic recovery in the former Soviet Republics will make it an unlikely source of oil exports.

Natural Gas Production

In 2001 natural gas prices reached record highs of about $10.00 Mbtu. There was record drilling activity that resulted in a pathetic net gain of 2% natural gas supply. The recent reduction in natural gas prices result from the US economic recession and in a reduction of drill rig activity and declining production. As the excess supply is drawn off from storage (at a record withdrawal rate more than double last years withdrawal rate), the typical drilling season passes by. We could see severe shortages of natural gas by this fall or winter.

Industry estimates are that natural gas production will fall more than 3% this year. Add to that increasing demand and sharply increased decline rates (up to 29%) we are looking at a repeat of last years "energy crisis" that pushed the US economy into the current recession.

Other Energy Sources

Hydroelectric power generation is likely to fall short this year. The Pacific Northwest is still in recovery from last year's drought. Recent precipitation may alleviate some early energy demand, however, come this summer and fall it may be difficult for Californians once again as Pacific Northwest hydroelectric power is crucial to the states energy needs. The East Coast is in the midst of one of the most severe droughts on record. There are already water restrictions in force in many regions. This will likely continue for several more months. The result is that there will be ever more reliance on fast depleting natural gas supply.

Nuclear power production may be restricted over the next several months as recent discoveries of boric acid corrosion has prompted the NRC to require all nuclear facilities (of the Three Mile design) to undergo inspection and repair. This may take anywhere from 90 days to 2 years depending on the possible damage. There are 69 facilities of this design. If only a handful of reactors are shutdown for repairs this will require a substantial additional draw on natural gas supply.

Coal-fired power generation may be a problem this year as well. Calpine Energy for example depends on purchases of "carbon credits" to operate additional power. This year that will not happen. They are not alone, as "carbon credits" are in short supply. When Calpine made the announcement their share prices dropped sharply. There is also pending environmental legislation that will restrict some coal-fired power generation.

Economic Recover Is In Doubt

The limited energy supply and possible foreign oil supply disruptions all most guarantee that there will be no economic recovery this year. Energy costs drop straight to the the corporate "bottom line". An economic recovery depends on "Cheap Energy" and there will be no "Cheap Energy" this year. With higher oil prices, we will likely see duel-fuel power facilities switch to cheaper natural gas. However, with the higher price hydrocarbon fuels and all other sources of energy priced much higher, we will see corporate "bottom lines" severely tested. In short � scratch one economic recovery.

Gold and Silver Portfolio Insurance

As the US economy crashes, Gold and Silver prices will surge higher as investors seek a safe haven in a "flight to quality". This is where the insurance portion of ones portfolio comes into play. As a counter-cyclical hard asset, Gold and Silver prices will rise against falling equities prices. There will be some (actually very few) stocks that will do well, however, as hard assets Gold and Silver are the ultimate hedge against a falling stock market and a possible currency crisis. Of course it is a sure bet that the Fed will increase liquidity to unbelievable levels to fight the deteriorating economy resulting in sharply rising inflation. And we know how these events will play on Gold and Silver.

- Black Blade




YGM
(04/02/2002; 04:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 72516)
'Here's the Future Energy Crisis'
http://www.prahlad.org/pub/bearden/scalar_wars.htmMaybe we could Gold Plate Lead Hats. Truly thought provoking
pile of info here. More than most 'can' or "would want" to fathom....YGM
LeSin
(04/02/2002; 05:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 72517)
OIL CARD NOW ON FIRMLY ON THE M/EAST TABLE
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/020402/1/2ncc1.html
Tuesday April 2, 1:17 PM
Iran would 'consider' using oil as weapon against US over Israel

Iran would consider using oil as a weapon to force the United States to pressure Israel into withdrawing from Palestinian territory, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said.

Responding at a news conference to a proposal floated by Iraq Monday, Kharazi said the use of Arab oil to turn the screws on the US and Israel would depend on a collective decision by Islamic countries.

"If they decide to use oil as a weapon certainly Iran will consider it. It will be effective if all Muslim countries would take such a decision," he said on the sidelines of an Organisation of the Islamic Conference meeting on terrorism.

Iraq's ruling Baath party on Monday called on Arab countries to use their oil power against Israel and the United States to ensure the liberation of Palestinian land.

"Use oil as a weapon in the battle ... otherwise it will become a burden which will lead to (more) humiliation," the party's national command said in a statement.

Arab oil producers, who account for half of world supplies, have not used the oil card since the 1973 crisis, despite repeated calls by Iraq and others to do so.

The statement branded the United States "an enemy and a partner of Zionism," and alleged that the Israeli military offensive in the Palestinian territories "was mounted in joint agreement with the American administration."

Washington dismissed Baghdad's call as "random musings".

Deputy State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said the idea was not being taken seriously in the Arab world.

"I just don't have anything on random musings from the Iraqi regime," Reeker told reporters when asked about Iraq's call. "I don't think the Arab world takes that seriously," he added.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri, who is also attending the OIC conference here, told reporters: "It is up to the Arab oil producing countries.

"But in general terms the Arab world has the right to coordinate their policies and efforts to stand by their brothers to defend themselves.

"The Israeli threat is not only designed against the Palestinian people but against the whole Arab world."

The Minister of Justice and Human Rights of Southeast Asian oil producer Indonesia, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, said however he believed it was "quite impossible" to use oil as a weapon.

"It is quite difficult now. Oil is not so easy to be used as a weapon," the representative of the world's most populous Muslim nation told reporters.

"A lot of other countries like South America and China are also producing oil as well as other countries outside OPEC.

"Competition among these countries is quite high. Also it is not easy to reach consensus in OPEC about oil prices. What more the use of oil as a weapon? I think it is quite impossible."

LeSin
(04/02/2002; 05:48:09 MDT - Msg ID: 72518)
Mr Bush & USA Gov - How Many War Fronts Do You Desire?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20020402-960421.htm
China assembles missiles near coast facing Taiwan
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


���� China's military is deploying more short-range ballistic missiles near the coast opposite Taiwan, as tensions in the region are increasing over growing U.S. support for the island.�
���� U.S. intelligence agencies tracked a shipment of some 20 CSS-7 short-range missiles to a missile base near the town of Yongan in Fujian province.
���� The missiles were delivered in the past two weeks and were identified by U.S. military intelligence, the officials said.
���� The shipment is part of a continuing Chinese missile buildup that has raised questions among senior defense officials about Beijing's announced commitment to seeking a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan.
���� Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in an interview with The Washington Times in August that the buildup of missiles near Taiwan has been steady and is destablizing.
���� Mr. Wolfowitz said the deployments are counter to China's announced policy of seeking a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan. "I don't see that building up your missiles is part of a fundamental policy of peaceful resolution," he said.
���� U.S. intelligence agencies now estimate that China has between 350 and 400 missiles deployed at several bases within firing range of Taiwan.
���� The missiles are considered destabilizing because their flight time is so short � they can reach their targets within minutes � and there is no defense.
���� Last year, the Bush administration deferred a decision on whether to sell advanced Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers to Taiwan in the hope that Beijing could be persuded to halt the missile buildup against Taiwan.
���� U.S. officials have said the new CSS-7s may lead to sales of the Aegis equipped warships to Taiwan.
���� China's government last month denied a U.S. warship access to Hong Kong after the Bush administration permitted Taiwan's defense minister to visit the United States to attend a defense conference in Florida.
���� A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said "The U.S. side has done a series of things that interfere with China's internal affairs and undermine China-U.S. relations."
���� China's government also was angered by disclosure of a secret U.S. nuclear policy review that said nuclear weapons could be used against China if a conflict over Taiwan broke out.
���� Chinese press reports have indicated that Beijing's leaders may cancel the visit to the United States this month of Hu Jintao, the vice president who is viewed as the leading candidate to succeed current President Jiang Zemin in the coming months.
���� Asked about Mr. Hu's visit, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman would not answer directly but said: "Smooth and healthy development of China-U.S. relations will not be possible without proper handling of the Taiwan question by the U.S. side."
���� The Pentagon took steps to update its war plans to defend Taiwan last year after President Bush announced the United States would do "whatever it takes" to defend the island from mainland attack.
���� Chinese missile deployments opposite Taiwan have been continuing at a rate of at least 50 new missiles per year, defense officials have said. Additionally, the Chinese are believed to be increasing the accuracy of the short-range missile force, the officials said.
���� Last year, missile activities near Taiwan were detected in March, May and August. The missile developments were first reported by The Washington Times.
���� CIA Director George J. Tenet told Congress last month that China is continuing to "upgrade and expand the conventional short-range ballistic missile force it has arrayed against Taiwan."
���� Adm. Dennis Blair, outgoing commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told the House Armed Services Committee that China could do "great damage" to Taiwan with its missiles.
���� "Where we are right now is that China is capable of causing a great deal of damage to Taiwan, damage that cannot be stopped by the Taiwanese armed forces or by forces of the United States, if they were ordered in," Adm. Blair said.
���� "And this is because of China's buildup of short-range ballistic missiles, which there are only small numbers of Patriots that can intercept. However, China is not now capable of taking and holding Taiwan and satisfying that goal of China."
���� Military stability "will depend on not only what China does, but what Taiwan does and what the United States does," Adm. Blair said.
Christian
(04/02/2002; 05:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 72519)
Short Gold Banking
Banks- Central Banks have, are selling Gold Calls, naked Calls, Puts, Naked Puts to maintain a gold price that is range bound. In this way holders of Calls, Puts expire worthless in order to produce income on a non producing asset called gold. This can be done with any commodity traded. The idea is to make a (1st) profit and (2nd) to control the public's inflation expectations by keeping commodities (gold) prices flat. For years now the Federal Reserve has and presently is monetizing the national debt by buying Treasury Bonds they are unable to sell without driving up interest rates. The FED banks simply buy this paper by establishing a gold short position to act as an book-keeping position. Many bond fund managers warn of the dangers inherent in an over-leveraged U.S. balance sheet. Presently the fiat Federal Debt is increasint at a rate of $0.72 per person, while the gold short debt position is increasing at a rate of $15.00 per person per day. What killed the Argentinian Banks is their gold short positions, same is true in Japan and the same is going to happen here. All this debt will make the indebted property worthless because people will simply be forced to walk away from their property that is indebted more then what it is worth. For those who still think they have equity in their property the debt becomes a burden just to make the monthly mortgage payment. then there is still the good old property tax payment, insurance and upkeep. We live in an economic concentration camp.
LeSin
(04/02/2002; 05:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 72520)
Geo/Political Wars, Oil, Currency Wars, Gold, Terror - All So Very Handy
What relief for the A.Anderson's of the USA financial system. The media & news focas away from the over valued and hyped USA stock market, together with its' 'proforma' and fruadulent accounting practices provides some respite
for the sick system.

All we need now is for MicroSoft, IBM, GE, Ford & GM to come clean and it is 'game-over'.

Cheers "S"
LeSin
(04/02/2002; 06:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 72521)
US$ Value Questioned -- GOLD GET YOU SOME - QUICKLY DO NOT DELAY
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020402&ID=1528043
Buy Dollars to Flee Crisis? Maybe NOT!
April 02, 2002 04:12:00 AM ET


By Anchalee Worrachate

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The raging conflict in the Middle East is creating a dilemma in foreign exchange markets over whether the U.S. dollar is the safest harbor for investors worried about the potential economic impact of the crisis.

On Monday, as Israeli tanks rolled into Palestinian-ruled areas of the West Bank, investors were quick to jump out of the U.S. dollar, the traditional port of first call in times of conflict or economic stress, into the Swiss franc, an alternative safe haven.

The U.S. currency clawed back ground on Tuesday as a dithering market decided rising oil prices would probably hurt huge oil importers such as Japan and the euro zone, where the European Central Bank's inflexible inflation target leaves it exposed to any short-term energy-related surge in prices.

Analysts said the most pressing question being asked in the market was whether the Middle East violence was likely to escalate to the point that it could derail a U.S. economic recovery.

``It depends on how the U.S. is drawn into the conflict. If it's plain vanilla Middle East tension, then you can expect people to buy the dollar, buy oil, sell Hong Kong forwards and the yen, for example,'' said Claudio Piron, the head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore.

``If the U.S. involvement in the conflict becomes deeper and the situation gets messy, it's likely people will diversify and get out of the dollar. The problem will raise questions about the sustainability of its huge current account deficit.''

The staggering size of the U.S. current account deficit -- more than $400 billion -- means the U.S. needs to attract more than $1 billion a day to fund its capital shortfall and maintain the stability of its currency.

So far, the United States has had no difficulty meeting the challenge even when it faced recession, thanks to its robust equity and bond markets.

``This is not an issue anyone will raise during the good times. But be careful, once a pin drops, there could be a stampede,'' said a senior forex dealer at an Asian bank in Singapore.

``That said, I still think the dollar should continue to be in favor despite the Middle East conflict because there are lots of positive things being loaded up into the pipeline that will cause a strong rebound in the U.S. economy.''

Moreover, some analysts believe calls from some Arab nations to use oil as a weapon against the West would be hard to carry out because of their fragile economies.

The world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, for example, has been running a current account deficit for the last 17 years and has barely enough oil revenues to meet immediate budgetary needs.

But other analysts cautioned that a ''when-in-doubt-buy-the-dollar'' mentality might not be the best option at this point.

``The degree of risk and uncertainty in the Middle East is higher now than it had been previously,'' said Clifford Bennett, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore. He recently made a call to buy the Swiss franc, which is up one percent against the dollar since last Thursday.

``Over the weekend, Iraq and Kuwait becomes friends again. Basically, the message to the U.S. is, 'Hands off Iraq'. What that symbolizes is the Arab world is more angry and more upset than it has ever been previously about the U.S. foreign policy on Palestine,'' he said.

Bennett said the conflict is taking place as the United States' financial market status is diminishing due to its perceived foreign policy shortcomings in the Middle East, huge current and credit account deficits, and high-profile corporate failures.

``In the late 90s, people would buy anything American because of its brand name status. Now M&A flows have fallen and portfolio flows are appearing to be more balanced between the Europe and the U.S. The current crisis could hurt sentiment toward the U.S. and that could cause people to go for the European currencies to play it safe,'' he said.

� 2002 Reuters
Black Blade
(04/02/2002; 07:20:51 MDT - Msg ID: 72522)
Gold Higher
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Gold appears set to break through $305/oz. level - currently $304.70/oz.
Black Blade
(04/02/2002; 07:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 72523)
Market Futures Lower, Gold Higher, Oil and Natural Gas Higher
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Looks like a wild day on Wall Street. Gold and Petroleum are higher on ME concerns and investors searching for a safe haven. There are several earnings warnings and lower "guidance" warnings. AOL reports that they will write off $40 billion. Looks to get "Interesting".

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/02/2002; 07:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 72524)
Gold Higher Still

Gold just popped through the $305/oz. resistence level. Will we see a rush to short coverin today? Maybe!
Operative
(04/02/2002; 07:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 72525)
3 Days & Counting
Looks like gold going for four days in a row with a close above 300.
Black Blade
Calandra of Marketwatch With "Golden Hair"?

Tom Calandra of CBS Marketwatch made a bet that if Gold stayed above $300.00/oz. for a minimum of 5 days in a row, he would dye his hair "Gold". Well, just a couple of more days to go.

So far no mention of the Gold rally on CNBC.Though Faber is wearin a Gold colored tie.
Mr Gresham
How does it feel to be on a "winning team"?
Don't die of shock when it happens; you're gonna find out soon enough.
barnacle bill
Israelis fire on unarmed peace activists
The above subject line was the headline on page 7A in today's St. Paul Pioneer Press, St. Paul, MN.
This is the American tax dollar at work. Remember that Israel gets $3billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars every year with no strings attached.
RobotGuy
Black Blade - - - Thom Calandra
I sent him an e-mail mentioning that I would be looking forward to seeing him dye his hair gold, and he responded "that was back in November" he didn't really seem to be too enthusiastic to do it right now.

All I can say is that I'm a man of my word, and if I made a promise like that with no apparent 'additional' boundaries, I'd be more than happy to honour it.

Good to see spot movin'!! cheers all!!
Belgian
Informative postings from...
Le Sin : Yep, the dollar dilemma and the war fronts !Excellent Chineze timing for reactivating the Taiwan burner.

YGM : Scalar wars!? Fascinating !

Gresham :Sharon's dictatorial ultimatum on Arafat will solve nothing and make things worse !

Thanks for the info.
YGM
U.S. Default Avoidance.....
Borrow from Peter to pay Paul......Desperation ????U.s. Moves To Avoid Default

Tuesday April 2, 2002 3:40 PM


WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration will take steps this week to prevent a federal default, given Congress' failure to raise the government's borrowing limit.

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, in a letter to congressional leaders Tuesday, said the government would avoid a default by temporarily shifting money in a retirement fund for civil servants into a non-interest-bearing account.

That would take tens of billions of dollars out of the calculation of the federal debt, freeing room for more borrowing. The shift will begin Thursday and end about April 18.

Eventually, the money - along with all lost interest - would be put back into interest-bearing instruments.

The affected account, the Government Securities Investment Fund, ``will receive complete restoration of all funds temporarily affected by this necessary action, including full and automatic restoration of any interest that would have been credited to the fund,'' O'Neill said in the letter. ``Beneficiaries will be the same as if this temporary action had never taken place,''

The action will be taken Thursday because it will be about that time that the government expects federal debt would otherwise reach the $5.95 trillion ceiling. O'Neill has repeatedly asked Congress to boost the ceiling by $750 billion. But with Democrats and many conservative Republicans on Capitol Hill opposed, efforts to raise the debt ceiling have foundered.

The shift of some retirement accounts was used in 1995 by President Clinton's treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, to avoid default during a budget fight with the Republican-controlled Congress.

Since the government began raising money to fight World War I in 1917, Congress has let the Treasury borrow the money it wants, as long as it stays within limits.

O'Neill, in the letter to congressional leaders, raised hopes that a deal boosting the debt ceiling would eventually be done.

``Together we must continue working to enact an increase in the statutory debt limit as quickly as possible to avoid any negative repercussions at home or abroad,'' O'Neill said.

YGM
No Wonder Arafat Declines to leave...
http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=215He's a one man equivalent of the Fed. Res., printing his way to prosperity! Wonder what his Swiss account holds!
Morroccan currency is probably cheaper to buy than print tho.......Got Gold?
Cometose
HECLA MINING
This silver mining (hecla mining: hl)company is up dramatically in the last two trading sessions. I can't find a site to log its competitors on one graph together to measure what may be happening industry wide. Anyone else looking at this? Please confirm if a trend is occuring. Hope this is showing the way for the metal.......the word squeeze comes to mind....

Pippin
Cometose - chart comparison
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Pizz
Comatose
Regarding Hecla - they mine gold too.

On Friday they announced they hit gold at depth at their La Camorra mine in Venezuela. Yesterday they announced the acquisition of a major lease for gold property also in Venezuela.

My broker has a volume alert on it right now, big blocks are being bought.

There was some speculation on another board yesterday that they may be a take over candidate - though I hope not.

Due your own due dilligence and not investment advice, I own a litte bit of this one.

Pizz
TownCrier
Pippin and Cometose
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NEM&d=c&k=c1&c=HL&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=lWe generally try hard to avoid the slippery slope that will rapidly turn this particularly unique gold discussion forum into little other than a stock chat room, which are already a dime a dozen elsewhere on the internet. Many here very glad to have among the vastness of the internet at least this one site free from the blitz of promotions for Wall Street's paper in one form or another -- wheter it be debt securities (bonds) of the government, banks, manufacturing, mining, or retail corporations, or else the asset securities (stocks) of banks, manufacturing, mining, or retail corporations.

But briefly, since the two of you would have us all turn our attention to the fortunes of the Hecla and Newmont corporations, every picture tells its own story, and you'd be sure to want to cosider this one (see link above) in addition to the one offered by Pippin. How much real and steadfast comfort has been offered by the paper asset class representing these corporations by holders since long ago 1988? Since 1996?

In the meanwhile, to holders anywhere in the world under a wide assortment of currency regimes, gold metal offered all of the real security unique to gold metal, a bulwark against privation that gains in power even as confidence in all others is lost.

Again, there is ample material to discuss regarding gold's part in an evolving world in which economics plays an ever increasingly important role. I don't think that we need waste time or space here in giving one particular corporation or another a leg up with free publicity or attention. There are other avenues specifically provided to acheive those ends, and anyone with vested interests toward those ends are encouraged to seek them out for such purposes. Our attention here should remain on discussion of the unique merits of gold metal ownership as part of a diversified portfolio to stand against the shifting political and economic realities of each new day. Discussion of those shifting socio-political/economic realities being also fair game for discussion as they relate to a person's contemplation for gold ownership.

Randy
Solomon Weaver
Red Gold - an update on Gold in China
http://www.cbbc.org/ezine/archive/sector-reports/sector-report1.html
Red Gold
Slowly, the shroud of secrecy surrounding China's gold production and reserves is lifting and plans are afoot to deregulate the sector. But, as John Adams explains, there are still many steps to be taken before a free market in gold will happen

For many years the amount of gold produced annually in mainland China, its geographical source and the level held in the official reserves were mysterious state secrets, whose possession was dangerous to the holder. Much effort was devoted by Western analysts to determining exactly how much gold China had at any one point, and how much had been sold on the world markets to cover bad harvests or political upsets. China was known to be mining gold in modest but useful amounts of perhaps 50 tonnes a year, but beyond that little was known.

The food shortages which followed the disastrous Great Leap Forward in 1958 forced China to sell gold to buy grain abroad, depleting the national reserves. During the autumn of 1966, as the equally disastrous Cultural Revolution got underway, Red Guard searches in Shanghai alone are reported to have turned up some 35 tonnes of privately held gold, presumably in bullion or coin, and 450 tonnes of gold and silver jewellery. This is not surprising: China is estimated to have some 5,000 tonnes of gold in private hands, worth billions of dollars.

Despite the disruption created by the Cultural Revolution, the banking system continued to function, at least abroad, and China is reported cannily to have sold its sterling balances in 1967, prior to the devaluation of sterling, and to have bought gold at US$35 per ounce, benefiting from subsequent gold price rises also.

In 1976, at the end of the Cultural Revolution, some 81 tonnes of gold were reported to have been sold after the Tangshan earthquake and Chairman Mao's death. Similarly, there were gold swaps after the events of Tiananmen in 1989, when China's credit rating was low.

As China moves forward into the 2000s it is faced with some tough decisions as a new world trade order (another international structure not of China's designing) emerges. No longer politically isolated, and groaning under the multiple cash demands from state industries on declining state revenues, China is examining all expenditure with a cold eye.

Gold, which once served as a silent and efficient cordial to oil the wheels of trade, is no longer seen as central to its needs. Since the 1990s foreign exchange earnings from exports have soared to about US$154bn, and while the amount of gold held at reportedly 12.7m ounces has not diminished, the proportion has fallen back from perhaps 50-60 per cent to only 3 per cent of total reserves.

To get things into perspective
China currently produces some 170 or so tonnes a year of gold from a large number of small deposits in almost every province in China. This is nonetheless only as much as one large multinational such as Anglogold. Most gold originates from mines in Shandong province (about 25 per cent) though there are also useful amounts of alluvial gold in China's many rivers. The far west of China is still being explored, and the major foreign gold mining companies are convinced that there is a major strike still to be made.

The gold mines are coming under budgetary and lending constraints. Official subsidies for prospecting are being cut back, smaller mines closed down and polluting processes restricted. So long as the world price for gold remains around US$280-330 per ounce, Chinese production is likely to stagnate or falter in the medium term. Listing of mines in China or abroad, or take-overs, are possible solutions.

The mines, where they have been modernised, have used the most modern equipment available. Nonetheless, productivity levels per person remain unsatisfactory, and the general level of production even at the bigger mines may only be 5 tonnes or so. The many small-scale mines are being closed down or else starved of funds.

Foreign direct investment in gold mining has so far been disappointing. Even the gold "seniors" (the major gold companies) have found the approval process daunting (with over 40 separate steps), while the legal framework (such as on ownership and transfer of property rights) is unclear; the taxation regime does not allow for the special nature of mining investment. Dry wells may cost up to US$25m in prospecting and exploration costs which cannot be offset.

A dozen or so gold "juniors" have signed up to develop properties in China, but are constrained by the current low world gold price, and lack of bank and investor interest in funding. China has yet to attract the billion-dollar gold mines currently up and running in Indonesia.

On the structural side big changes are afoot in China. At the moment, all gold mined in China has to be sold to the People's Bank of China, which in turn onsells it to the wholesalers, manufacturers and retailers. In the recent past, the price paid by the People's Bank to the mines was well below the prevailing world price, giving a strong inducement to smuggling gold out of China. This was rectified by the authorities, and the price adjusted upwards. There it remained, while the world price plummeted, thus giving a strong incentive to smuggle gold back into China and sell it to the authorities as domestic production.

The only thing which made this system viable was the ruinous mark-up added to the price paid by the consumers of gold. The People's Bank now has the power to change the gold price without reference to the State Council, and it closely shadows the daily international price.

Towards a new system
In the first week of November 1999 the World Gold Council, in conjunction with China's National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, the Development Research Centre of the State Council and the Financial Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China organised a forum in Beijing attended by over 120 delegates from the central bank, gold mining companies, the gold jewellery trade and various financial institutes.

The conference discussed a series of papers on the changing role of gold, but also concentrated on the reform of the Chinese gold market. In particular, the World Gold Council, the forum for gold producers worldwide, presented its paper entrusted to the National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, on deregulating the gold market in China. The paper pointed to the special characteristics of the gold market in China, the lack of any precedent in any other market, and the difficulties inherent in the reform. The report suggests a several-staged reform of the gold market, among them:

Establishment of a gold market to replace the monopoly of the People's Bank over purchase and allocation via a gold exchange limited in membership to large producers, purchasers and brokers

Business to be limited to spot only transactions

People's Bank to begin decontrol of gold purchases with a dual-track system: this would allocate a purchase ratio to producers, who would, however, be free to decide whether to sell to the People's Bank or to the market. Any production surplus over quota to be sold on the market

Complete opening of the gold market with individuals able to buy and sell gold products for the purpose of savings and investment

Quota-based allocations to manufacturers to be abolished

Brokers to provide gold sales to small and medium-sized manufacturers

People's Bank purchases cease; all gold production sold directly on local market

Individuals free to purchase gold

Mechanisms for futures to be set in hand

Removal of the ban on gold exports and imports; direct linkage to the world gold markets. The report emphasises that this will also be conditional on complete convertibility of the renminbi

The establishment of a stabilisation fund in the interim period before China's domestic gold price is completely aligned with the international level, in order to smooth price fluctuation. The fund to be entrusted by the People's Bank to some local agency. These operations to cease on full linkage to the world market

The report also underlines the view that gold will continue to play an important part in China's national reserves as a stabilising factor in financial crises

These reforms will be difficult to implement, and carry a number of thorny problems concerning the convertibility of the renminbi, and the VAT status of gold when sold to private customers. Silver, for example, was deregulated at the start of 2000. It, too, was a metal held in the official reserves to the tune of perhaps 2,500-3,000 tonnes, but VAT is now chargeable at an assumed rate of 17 per cent, which has cast a shadow over the new market.

Gold fingers
In the meantime, gold sales to the private sector in China continue to boom. The major off-take is now in gold jewellery, which may consume 200 tonnes a year (more than total domestic mine production). The World Gold Council has identified Chinese demand for gold jewellery as one of the forces to drive world gold production in general, and has instituted marketing programmes in conjunction with local jewellers and media.

In 1998 the WGC worked with Shanghai Lao Miao Gold Company to set up a publicity campaign using a local television series "Love in Shanghai" to launch the Amour range of jewellery. Lao Miao's sales rose some 15 per cent after this campaign.

This was followed in late 1999 by a larger scale media campaign, again organised by WGC and Shanghai Lao Miao Gold, but this time launched in 18 major Chinese cities, and linked into Lao Miao's range of 24K jewellery collection, Forever, with items from the collection again worn in a 20-episode television programme.

The major target of this campaign was young women office workers, with salaries in the region of Yn2,500 per month (US$300). In 1999 Lao Miao was able to register a rise in sales of some 30 per cent. Not surprisingly, it has identified the major sales period as being the Chinese New Year (which varies according to the lunar calendar) and, less traditionally, St Valentine's day.

The main market in China is for gold of between 95.9 per cent content (959 fineness, 23 Carat) and 100 per cent (999, 24). While many items of jewellery are universal in appeal, some items are culturally specific to China: the astrological year signs of animals such as pigs and snakes, or the berobed Gods of Health, Wealth and Happiness, may have limited appeal elsewhere, though will be of interest to the large numbers of overseas Chinese.

But the big wide world moves on. The Bank of England has been directed by a reforming Chancellor to treat Britain's gold reserves as though gold was no different from frozen concentrated orange juice futures, or pork bellies in Chicago. In Beijing, resource nationalism may reign for a few years more, but Guangdong now buys its coal in Australia, and China is becoming heavily dependant on oil imports from abroad: "commoditisation", for gold as well as other products, is the new game.
Pippin
TownCrier
I stand corrected - sorry.
I really did not intend to draw the attention of anybody to a certain security - I just answered a question of somebody who needed a comparison tool. But I understand the point.
CoBra(too)
Echos of my fleeting Thoughts?
http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD03Dj01.htmlInteresting article -calling the push for globalization for what it is. A globalization of financial markets to the detriment of the real produc(tive- or)ing countries.

A rude awakening to these facts may be in the cards. Sooner as some think. cb2
R Powell
From Bob Pisani and CNBC
In his at the bell closing comments he mentioned "the concept of gold as a safe haven is making a comeback".
Maria mentioned both oil and gold as the "news of the day".
Joe Kernan mentioned the higher prices of commodities as a group as one reason why the equities were down today. Apparently he sees an inverse relationship between the two and his preference would be higher stock prices. I would agree that the CRB will go higher at the expense of money inflow in stocks in our present situation. Is/has there always been such an inverse relation? Are paper and tangible assets always at odds?
The peoples stock market television channel has been mentioning gold, silver and oil all day. Of course, stocks related to both oil and metals were also mentioned with the usual charts, graphs, whistles, bells and opinions. We are getting exposure. If Joe and Jill bubblevision viewers are going to jump in, we may see it soon. Momentum and trend following buying may also be approaching.
I believe the Japanese deposit insurance coverage reduction April 1st deadline pertains only to long term or certificate of deposit type investments. Next year it will be lowered on common bank deposits. I hope gold buying continues in Japan but I know how quickly I attend to tasks that can be put off for a year.
On the technical side, I'm watching open interest which in silver has increased from approx. 66,000 contracts to over 77,000 contracts during this latest run up which started around the $4.30 level and must exceed $4.77 to assure a higher high. Maybe tomorrow!
Gold and oil, oil and gold all the day long. Now, isn't CNBC a wonderful thing? As to why, they haven't a clue but further investment money into gold/silver will gladly and unquestioningly accept their Middle-East tensions and "flight to safe haven" as reason enough to buy.
Mikal, if silver breaks above the old 477 high, am I then allow to yell!?
Rich
RobotGuy
Investor motivation??
I was amused/surpirsed/dissapointed today as I watched a number of mining companies stocks trade lower even as the POG was advancing. I don't understand why individuals would be selling lower in what appears to be a bull market. Is it merely a 'follow the lemming' market, or am I missing something here?

I know, I know, physical, physical, blah blah blah. I already own physical, I just want to understand how the market is functioning, because I believe there are also gains to be made in the securities markets. Don't pretend you don't know what I'm talking about, I know there are a few of you out there who also trade stocks.

Does anyone know what would motivate an individual to sell stocks on a "commodity" while the prices are moving higher? Add to that, that these stocks were trading for more when the POG was significantly lower. Please, assist a rookie would ya? Are we losing PM momentum? Are people already becoming bored with AU now that it's crossed the 300 mark and seemingly sitting strong? I don't understand.
Old Yeller
Making yen at the office
http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_531444.html
Why not,the BOJ seems to love it,the common folk are just getting in on the action.

Is there something wrong with that?

Pretty hard to moralize,given the destruction of the Japanese economy thanks to official debasement of the currency.
TownCrier
A grand juggling act by the U.S. Treasury
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/02/markets/bondcenter/treasury_debt.reut/index.htmHEADLINE: Treasury acts to avoid debt limit -- Department will tap government retirement fund as U.S. nears $5.95 trillion debt cap.

WASHINGTON (CNN/Money) Apr. 2 - ...As of Monday, U.S. government debt subject to a Congressionally set limit stood at $5.928 trillion, about $22 billion below the ceiling.
The Treasury said it will suspend investment in Treasury securities of the so-called G-Fund, one of five different funds that government employees have available in their federal savings plan, to avoid hitting the limit.
+
By suspending investment in the G-Fund, the Treasury will create about $40 billion in headroom for its usual debt securities. In order to tide it over until the mid-April tax flows. Treasury also said Tuesday it will sell about $46 billion in bills that will mature in mid-April to enable it to pay monthly benefits and payroll costs. Treasury usually has to sell debt in the early part of April, by far the biggest month for receipts, to make ends meet.
---(click link for full article)----

Worldwide, holders of U.S. debt securities watch this performance and they think carefully about the future and alternatives...

R.
R Powell
Robot Guy
Good question.
Without naming any specific companies, I believe we can say the mining company indexes like the XAU, the HUI and the TSE index are market indicators and may be mentioned in that context.
These indexes were up this morning but ended the day down. However, one day is much too short a time (unless you are a daytrader). Look at them in a much longer time frame. The XAU upmove preceeded POG by a good long time, measured in months not days. It's been advancing for over a year now and probably will continue (I hope) for many years to come accompanied by both POG and POS. Up, down, down, up but over any reasonable length of time- up!
These indexes started long before both gold or silver.
Will a definite end of this index trend announce the imminent ending of the metals' price bull? Blasphamy, you say? Hey, I'm looking ahead five or ten years. There will be a peak somewhere in both POG and POS. Anywhere north of $100/ounce for silver will suit me just fine.
Rich
TownCrier
Understanding the industrially-driven metals
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news≠ws_id=reu-n02204955&feed=reu&date=20020402&cat=USMARKETHEADLINE: Ford confirms PGM sales, palladium mkt steady

NEW YORK, April 2 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. is gradually selling palladium it no longer needs to reduce pollution from its automobiles, confirming in its latest government filing [its annual 10-K report] market suspicions that it had been reducing the precious metals inventory that cost it $1 billion when prices fell last year.

..."For our precious metals physically held, we have accordingly revised our stocking requirements and are in the process of reducing metals that are in excess of those stocking requirements (including market sales to the extent the market can absorb the metal in an orderly fashion)," Ford said in the the document.

Because of the catalyst design breakthrough, it projected that its palladium usage in 2002 will be down more than 50% from 2000.

But supplies of the metal have been very erratic in recent years ... prodded automakers and other industrial users to research cheaper and more readily available substitutes and to develop alternative technologies to meet increasingly stringent emission control laws...

To guarantee supply, Ford bought the metals aggressively in 2000 and early 2001 when palladium prices were on their way to record highs near $1,100 an ounce early last year.
But palladium prices collapsed to near $300 an ounce in late 2001 because of the global recession and frequent selling from Russia.

...Ford's annual report said it planned several actions for outstanding precious metal forward purchase contracts, including cash settling instead of taking physical delivery of the commodities.

-----(click link for full report)----

Similarities may be seen to exist through time and space, but modern circumstances are working to reveal that not all precious metals are alike for purposes of portfolio diversification and wealth preservation. Viva la difference! Call Centennial to discuss a diversification/investment strategy that is right for you.

R.
Black Blade
Gold Higher � Shares Lower

Gold prices are higher yet the mining shares are lower. How can this happen some ask. It is quite simple as the Gold shares overshot on the upside. Now the underlying asset must work to catch up (notice that Gold is still higher). As a result speculative market players are locking in profits and others are taking some profits to lower their "cost basis" on remaining shares (I have done this myself in the past). Interesting is that the physical metal appears to be in "accumulation". I suspect that there are greater (much greater) gains in Gold yet to come.

Another reason that Gold mining shares stalled out is that many fled to Gold shares for a "flight to quality" in the face of ME tensions (actually most did so for the speculative edge). This is not a concern to those who buy physical Gold for portfolio insurance purposes. However, some are debating how long these ME tensions will last or if they will escalate. It appears that the Israeli invasion is spreading and Palestinian attacks are continuing. If the war heats up some more we will likely see both physical and mining shares resume higher.

Also, today news has revealed that Stillwater Mining (SWC), the PGM producer in Montana is under SEC investigation for how they valued reserves. I bailed out of that dog long ago as they had a knack for selling forward at the lowest possible prices. Management is utterly incompetent.

On the PGM front, Russia still is not delivering into their metal contracts. This was not unexpected of course as Russian stockpiles have been essentially depleted since 1998. Any PGM supply must come from current production. As most PGM supply is from by-product nickel production form Norilsk Nickel, I would not hold my breath waiting for delivery. Base metal production is down due to lower base metal prices (although recovering of late) and therefore PGM production will be slow. Russian exporters have stated that they are waiting for Palladium prices in the $400 to $600 range. Another wildcard is that Ford Motor Co. is selling off some excess Palladium that they acquired at much higher prices (somebody had to have lost their job over that one).

Meanwhile Oil and Natural Gas prices are much higher. Most of this is due to ME tensions, yet there is also a growing consensus that there will be petroleum supply shortages come this fall and winter. I covered much of this earlier. There are growing concerns on Wall Street that the "economic recovery" was an illusion dreamed up by analysts based on murky data and overly optimistic projections based on dubious data. The chickens are coming home to roost.
sector
@RobotGuy...Wht Gold Equities Slipped at the End of the Day
More and more funds are buying gold equities, still not enough to push a feather though. So when these 20 somethingfund managers [Who don't know Jack about this market] get a tiny gain they sell to "lock in their profits".

Never mind that the trade will run away from them as it has, lo these many months for about 15 months now. They imagine they can ride the crests by buying the dips. Trouble is, there aren't so many real dips any more.

Hui usually bounces back the next day and even overshoots the trend sometimes.

I've been thinking that the golds may detach from pog the way internets detached [Upward] from their non-existent earnings in late 1999 and 2000. Thus the normal 3X leverage of equities to pog may swell to 6X or 10X.

The problem with all this speculation is that we are in uncharted territory for gold...uncharted due to the skewed, deformed market fundamentals caused by US Government manipulation through the sales of our treasury's gold bullion.

Looking at historical [Back to the 60's] M3 Growth rates, Don Lindley has revealed an enormous spike of late in this metric. Only bad things are ahead for the cabal and everyone else who doesn't have gold.

On a personal note, this weekend I tried to persuade my sister to sell her Vivendi stock [Her husband is a Muckety-Muck for them]. She couldn't hang up the phone fast enough. "It will come back", she said.

This process...the belief mechanism that shuts out all reality is well examined by the the following quote:

"Of the ten leading vacuum tube manufacturers, none participated in the transistor revolution"...Chet Raymo [The "R" in TRW]. The same mechanism at work there is at work now in the gold paradigm shift. Most fundfs still shun gold...meaning they remain potential buyers.

The ME is a powder keg...Arabs are heavily buying gold in a militaristic sense...they may have guessed that doing so will hurt the US.

Think of your gold investment as the purchase of well-situated land.
Sierra Madre
The XAU index descends...with gold rising...???

Yes, I saw it and it does seem strange.

"Manipulation" - it can work both on physical as well as on futures and stocks, too.

The stock market can be kept up - for a time - via manipulation. I guess certain stocks which are not supposed to go up, can be manipulated so they don't.

Not many people are attracted to physical gold; but a great many are into stocks; it is rather embarrasing, for the financial establishment, to have gold stocks go up. Too many commentators would have to notice. And that won't do.

We'll have to wait and watch. Much more of this, and we'll know the PPT is slamming gold stocks. If I am wrong, please let me know. Would shorting do the job, or not?

Sierra

Pippin
Gold occurences in Switzerland - recreational activities :-)
http://www.goldwaschen.ch/egold_occ.htmJust for the fun of it: you may have heard the sentence that <>.

What you may not know is this is also true for gold, as demonstrated by the URL above, which displays a map showing that gold exists in Switzerland also (apart in the banks' vaults of course), although in homeopathic quantities.

Can you imagine that a total of ...73 gold coins ("Goldvreneli") were minted from the mine of Gondo in Valais ? This may explain the Swiss National Bank's sales.

So if POG moves to $ 10K per once, who knows ...we'll maybe see gold prospectors even in Geneva :-)
mikal
@RPowell
Nothing ventured, nothing gainedRe: Your "yell" signal- 1) After some false signals a few weeks back, maybe our "irrational exuberance" should take this form: "I am indeed rich since my income is superior to my expenses, and my expense is equal to my wishes."-Edward Gibbon, Memoirs 2) Variety is the spice of life, so celebrate a little, diversify into AU (metal), and flame me once in a while! 3) Major resistance levels, recently posted here and there conclude >$4.48>>$4.75($4.80)>>$5.70>galactic enumeration. To consider: Can David Morgans $6.50 year 2002 top, satisfy you? Have you ruled out more selling from the Phillipine hoards? Mexican silver output, just announced, is up 25%, can Peru, Argentina, etc. be far behind, and is this just the prologue? Will you diversify into physical gold- the choice of Kings? :)) Thanks, your a breath of fresh air.
nickel62
With apologies to COBRA TO
I thought the article you posted was so important I wanted to post it in it's entirety to make sure as many people saw it as possible.

Creative accounting and the destructive risk
By Henry C K Liu

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, frequently credits US growth in the 1990s to a rise in productivity made possible by advances in technology. Yet studies have shown that computerization did not simulate much rise in industrial productivity in the 1990s. Industrial computerization was essentially in place long before 1995. The 1990s boom in the US was not an industrial boom but a financial boom. This was made possible by three developments: the deregulation of financial markets, the computerization of trading of financial instruments, and globalization, particularly financial globalization.

The entire structured finance (derivatives) phenomenon would not be possible without any one of the above mentioned developments. Structured finance in essence allowed an unprecedented explosion of credit, by unbundling risks for a wide range of risk-takers who sought corresponding compensatory returns. While hedging initially provided protection against volatility to individual market participants, it soon became a profit center for financial institutions. This led to the institutionalization of volatility as a market opportunity. Financial institutions actually sought volatility in the system to provide a continuous profit stream.

Creative accounting, whose peculiar logic evolved from structured finance, also made the traditional debt/equity ratio immaterial. Ways were devised for the large market participants to structure debt as hedges, through swaps that avoided taxes and balance-sheet liabilities. Swaps enabled borrowers legally to book loan proceeds as current operating income and loan liabilities as future capital expenditure that could be kept off the balance sheet, inflating current earnings. Circular counterparty risks suddenly became neutralized risk, and cash flow from swaps became net revenue. These practices are now known as Enronitis.

On the macro level, the global finance game has become a sure win for those who use dollars, especially those whose government issues dollars by fiat. The world market has become a place where the United States makes dollars and the rest of the world makes what dollars can buy. But after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the whole world essentially adopted dollarization, if not directly, at least through hedges, albeit sometimes at prohibitive cost.

At that point, the US economy suddenly began to lose its exclusive dollar hegemony advantage because US entities were no longer the only ones with access to dollars nor could US transnationals avoid non-dollar revenue. To maintain the "strong dollar" monetary policy instituted by US treasury secretary Robert Rubin at the beginning of the Bill Clinton presidency, the US Federal Reserve progressively tightened dollar money supply throughout most of the 1990s. But this did not slow the US economy because structured finance permitted debt to expand without a corresponding expansion of equity. A strong dollar gave the US economy a boom in low-cost imports, while the US trade deficit merely forced foreign exporters to hold dollar reserves to finance the US debt bubble through a US capital account surplus. Japan did this for a whole decade, pushing its own economy into permanent recession while its dollar reserves mounted. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan took up the slack from Japan by 1995 and the three Chinese economies together now hold more dollar reserves than Japan does. China, starved for capital for domestic development, thus finds itself stuck with US$200 billion in US Treasury bills that pay 5 percent while it is forced to offer foreign direct investment high double-digit returns. The annual interest gap alone is in excess of $20 billion, which amounts to half of China's current annual foreign-capital inflow.

Growth in the 1990s came from a structural shift of the US economy from industrial capitalism to finance capitalism. Through financial globalization, the US shifted labor intensive manufacturing off US soil to low-wage locations, thus lowering the cost of manufactured products. Financial products and services and intellectual property valuation constituted most of the growth, making the US a consumer market of last resort for the whole world. London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore became financial outposts of New York, sucking up dollar reserves to support the US debt bubble.

This game is ending, as the US consumer market becomes saturated and condemned to low single-digit growth, regardless of business cycles. The wealth effect from a tripling of equity value did not double consumption in the US, because aggregate demand is constrained by a widening income disparity. The rich have bought all the manufactured products they need and the working poor cannot afford to buy all they want. The wealth effect did double investment globally, reflected in the phenomenal rise in market capitalization of US transnationals and financial institutions, particularly in the so-called New Economy. The competition for credit favored double-digit growth markets in the developing countries, but the US continued to dominate global finance through its sophistication and innovation in finance and through dollar hegemony.

The problem is that all unregulated markets eventually self-destruct. Weak competitors are naturally forced off the market, leading to monopolies that are the result of market failure of competition. Yet regulation cannot cure the problem preemptively because remedial regulation only makes sense after disasters, never before.

There is increasing evidence that the real threat to China is not democracy or the market economy per se but the peculiar US version of these institutions. The 19th-century industrial capitalism that Marx observed no longer exists. Finance capitalism is a system in which capital is only a notional value upon which to build a gigantic mountain of hidden debt. Representative democracy and unregulated market fundamentalism in the US mode now work as legalized constitutional devices to disfranchise the poor and weak, both locally and globally.

Greenspan acknowledged this in his semiannual monetary policy report to the US Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services on February 27: "From one perspective, the ever-increasing proportion of our GDP [gross domestic product] that represents conceptual as distinct from physical value-added may actually have lessened cyclical volatility. In particular, the fact that concepts cannot be held as inventories means a greater share of GDP is not subject to a type of dynamics that amplifies cyclical swings. But an economy in which concepts form an important share of valuation has its own vulnerabilities." He was of course referring to Enronitis.

Greenspan's observation about the vulnerabilities of conceptual valuation was on target, although his warning of vulnerability was disproportionately misplaced. Even after the Enron and Global Crossing controversies, Greenspan continues to resist regulation, preferring to rely on market discipline. The risk is much higher than he admits.

Past records do not reliably project future vulnerability risk. Any risk manager knows that accidents are always waiting to happen. The fact that it has not happened in the past does not mean it will not happen in the future. In fact, with each passing day without an accident, the risk of borrowed time increases. Low probability is only a source of comfort if the impact is not fatal.

Also, what Greenspan did not say, but admitted by implication, was that finance capitalism is operating with less and less reliance on capital. Capital has become a notional value in structured finance. Credit is no longer anchored by equity but by circular hedges. Debt-to-equity ratio is no longer a relevant consideration. Practically all US major businesses nowadays, with their high debt leverage, would have negative real equity if the price/earning (P/E) ratio were to return to historical norms. Blue chips are being shut out of the unsecured short-term commercial paper market. Corporate credit ratings are inflated by exorbitant market capitalization value, which in turn reflects irrational P/E ratios. Even now, during what many on Wall Street contend to be a savage bear market, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index yields 25 times earnings. It would have to fall by another 41 percent to reach the median valuation prevailing since 1957.

Such a decline can happen in a period of days in this age of program trading and socialized risk, even with circuit breakers and trading curbs. When that happens, structured finance will be a sea of dead and wounded in counterparty casualties, regardless of who won and who lost.

Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New York-based Liu Investment Group.

R Powell
More from Bob Pisani
Or, more likely, the research department behind the scenes. Bob now has a list of seven reasons why the POG is on the move.
1. Tensions, in the Middle-east (war) and tensions over bank deposit insurance in Japan
2. Safe haven buying in unsure times
3. Fewer bank auctions (but no mention was made of the Washington Agreement or its expiration date)
4. Momentum (a politically correct term for mania or blind, unthoughtout buying) investing. This should not be confused with rational exuberant gold accumulation sometimes known as "buying with both hands"
5. Short covering
6. Inflation fears (!!) Added emphasis is mine.
7. Alternative to the dollar. Bob had trouble reading this last reason and quickly added that some people actually question the eternal strength of the American dollar. He used the adjective "apocalyptic" in describing the thought process of these crazy people. Can you imagine? What next? Will someone suggest a slowdown in personal debt growth or (shutter) savings!
Rich
Trapper
Mr. Gresham
Re. your post #72512Your observation of the new postage stamp and it'e new world order link reminded me of somthing you might enjoy. When the Germany fell the US army spirited off with most all of the goverment files law books etc. Some years later after the translaters got the english done many of the US congressmen and senators found them good reading. Then about mid 1960's one senator layed in wait for an event to put his new knowledge to good use. President Kennedy gets killed in Texas by Oswald (yeah right)using a rifle delivered to him via US mail. Perfect.
Now our senator has his chance and viola the 1968 gun control act. Not only a law that is in scope and style of Hitlers 1938 gun control act but in many many places word for word. Oh well...live small.
RJ
Canuck
Additional comments to the POG up/shares down day.
I went thru a dozen or so companies checking the days events. A couple of the majors drifted slowly down thru the day but most interesting quite a few did the big slide (ie: Agnico) at 2:00pm.

So we have a couple theories floating about that the shares got ahead of themselves, day traders now involved in the volatility etc.

One thing not mentioned, that does bother me, is the possibility of a negative factor after the Comex (1:30?) close. This would explain the sudden slide in the case of Agnico.

I hope I am wrong in a gut feeling that POG is heading down, a take that the market recognized late in the afternoon.
Cavan Man
@sector
My concern for owning stocks in lieu of metal is simply that the gold market is so thoroughly screwed up with shorts and specs and paper dreams to hedge dollar denominated wealth etc. ad infinitum, is that this very abnormal market will implode and then who can forecast the outcome? BTW, I own shares and metal.
Cavan Man
Canuck
Why would POG go down under these current circumstances? I am talking about the metal not share prices.
R Powell
mikal
Thought you might be about! Good quote from Gibbon. Getting rich satisfies the need for a goal and being free from bill paying worries is a novel idea but making the journey may be more fun that reaching the destination. Here's another thought, "Please Lord, let the POG go to $10,000/ounce so I can prove that I can remain humble while being filthy rich."
I remember seeing that Mexican silver production was temporarily way down so that the 25% increase is just restoring its previous levels. I've forgotten why it was down, energy? The GFMS estimates of the silver deficit for year 2001 are between 80-90 million ounces. This is down from previous years but still a 7-8 million per month drawdown. Higher prices will increase production but it may take some doing. Doing often takes time, increasing production will too.
I'll be more than happy to see $6.50/ounce silver by year's end! And yes, when funds allow, I'll be a buyer of physical gold. I see merit in the physical-in-hand opinion but, when I look in my wallet, only silver is affordable so silver it is. I'd rather 100 silver coins than 2 gold ones. With paper option investments, I hold both and see about the same potential % return with an equal % increase in price. Some risk required!
Philipine silver stash? I wish I knew for sure. Ted Butler does too. Are you watching open interest? This rally may have some perseverence. Hope so!
Rich
slingshot
R Powell Msg# 72553
Bob Pisani's Magnificent List of SevenLet the music begin!

Is that all the reasons they could come up with for the POG to move higher? May the Saints preserve us. How many are on this team? Wonder how long Bob's list would be if he ever logged on to this forum? Double for sure and even triple. Who will be first to buy Gold? His research team or Bob?

Bob must have seen a glimpse of the BIG PICTURE.
Just goes to prove.
If all they can do is come up with seven, we are way ahead of the pack.

Thanks USAGOLD and all at the Forum


Slingshot-----------<>
RobotGuy
Sector and all
Thank you for ideas supporting why some equities may have travelled lower today.

Sector,.. you mentioned that the 'arabs are heavily buying gold in a militaristic sense'... Are they buying significant quantities?

I think this could really hurt North America if they decide they want gold for oil as others have stated in this forum. First buy as much gold as you can, and then charge others gold for exchange of commodities, suddenly North America has no gold, or as we all knew, nothing reserved. Who were the monkeys that ever decided we didn't need a gold standard? Who are the monkeys who continue to believe gold is a commodity?

I'll look forward to seeing this mess pan out. As for my stocks, I've learned from experience to just leave 'em sit. I lost a lot of money last year by moving it around too much, not to mention all those lost dollars in paid comissions.

Cheers!!
The Stranger
Sierra Madre
With respect, I think you may be making too much of the weakness in gold stocks today. Gold traded up to the high achieved earlier this year and then stutter-stepped into the close. Gains in these equities have been so impressive. Who wouldn't blame those who "lightened up" here, just in case the resistance implied by this level holds?

But, in a day or two, I suspect most of that money (and more) which exited today will be getting right back into those same gold mining issues...and probably at higher levels. After all, where else are profits being made with such facility these days?

Canuck
@ Cavan Man
How are you mon ami!

I agree with you, there is no reason for gold to go down. Someone today mentioned that the fundamentals and technicals do not warrant a slide. I concur 100%. It in fact warrants a major gallop through and past 1999 resistance; there is much, much more wrong with fiat today than in Sept. 99.

I wonder though if some scam is underway in Japan, I wonder if some bullsnot conspiracy is underway in the M.E. I wonder if the accounting scandal is being swept 'under the carpet'. Given the supply/demand fundamentals gold SHOULD be much higher.

There are days when I wonder if FREE MARKETS will prevail.

Sorry, just thinking aloud.

Canuck.

P.S.: I feel slightly better that POG is presently above the NY close.

I am reading a book about the silver explosion in the winter 1979/spring 1980. Apparently the final straw was the 'demand for delivery', the physical squeeze beginning in October 1979. I remain thoroughly convinced that the 'bull' we speak of begins and ends with supply/demand fundamentals, the 'real' thing.

Sierra Madre
Good move for gold, but other thoughts intrude

YGM's post at 4:16MT No. 72516 is absolutely ominous.
I don't discard the contents at all. Time to get religion!
Remember, the Mayan calendar ends with the "end of the 5th Sun" on Dec. 22, 2012. Coincidence? (The Mayan calendar counted 1,344,560 days. There is no Dec. 23, 2012.)

Gold is acting up. Is this thing about to explode? A panic is like nuclear fission. Once it gets going, it will not be stopped. We MAY see 10, 20, then 50 and 100 dollar rises per day. Game over!

Then we'll have a whole new set of problems to deal with.

I hope everyone is well stocked-up!

Sierra
Solomon Weaver
Canuck - your book
And what, pray tell might the title of your book on the explosion of silver be?
Chris Powell
James Turk's analysis of the decision in the Howe case
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1070Reg Howe won even though his lawsuit was
dismissed. The suit just needs to be taken
over by some gold-mining companies.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1070

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1071


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Canuck
@ Solomon Weaver
I was unaware of your fascination with silver Sir!!!!!!

;)
R Powell
Canuck
Solomon beat me to the punch in asking for the name of the book. If rather obscure, please include the publisher which helps in locating a copy.
Solomon's probably thinking that some detailed history of the last price explosion may give insight into how best to profit from the coming one. Also, is it well written and fun reading?
Thanks
Rich
R Powell
Canuck
Where have you been, my friend? Solomon was thinking about silver before Warren Buffet got his first pair of long pants.
Rich
R Powell
Canuck
"I remain thoroughly convinced that the 'bull' we speak of begins and ends with supply/demand fundamentals, the 'real' thing."
Well spoken. The rest is market noise, some self-fulfilling technical trading or market manipulation. All these will yield over time to the invisible hand. Even the central government control of the soviet USSR couldn't overcome the influence of supply and demand.
It isn't nice to fool with Mother Nature.
Rich
sector
@RobotGuy The Dubai Gold Market...
...is leading pog's price. The gold volume is up 500%.

The shieks don't have to embargo their oil to make a point. All they have to do is purchase physical gold. The same goes for wise US investors.
Canuck
@ Solomon Weaver
Silver Bulls: The Great Silver Boom and Bust

Paul Sarnoff

page 31:

"..exchange officals were trying to find out from the longs what their intentions were with respect to their contracts...bullion dealers were becoming increasingly uneasy....if the longs had let go...willing to sell their contracts rather than holding out for metal."

page 23:

"...it became apparent that (longs) intended to accept delivery on their long futures contracts in the COMEX Sept. future."

page 21:

"....was worried about the pattern he saw developing in the silver market. Some of the silver longs, as their contracts approached maturity, were refusing to sell offsetting contracts, but instead were giving notice that they intended to take delivery....silver was becoming alarmingly scarce under the market's relentless demand..."

---------------------

I'm only a quarter way through the book, much reference to the Hunt brothers so far. I am at the part where Comex began to severely increase the 'costs' for the longs, the author makes reference to the blatant 'impartiality'. I sense that the long physical holders could not 'hold out' until the very last gasp of blood-sucking air was expelled by the crooked 'paper-traders'. I hope to understand, in the end, how fortunes reversed so abruptly.

It is also very clear, so far, that initiating the 'corner' would be relatively easy, the amount of money would be insignificant ie: a la Bill Gates, a la Saudi Arabia. The trick, I believe, would be to maintain the 'corner' whilst dodging the death threats!

Awesome read so far!!
Canuck
Rich
Pulling your leg amigo!

You and Mr. Weaver are tied for silver bull of the century.

;)
LeSin
Auschwitz Logic - Letter From Israel
http://www.antiwar.com/hacohen/h-col.html
Letter From Israel by Ran HaCohen

The Auschwitz Logic�� April 1 , 2002
Black Blade
SEC: Corrupt or Merely Incompetent?
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1017759064.htmlSnippit:

Berkeley, California, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- We are living through one of those times when it is more fun than it should be to work at the Securities and Exchange Commission. An accounting scandal that began with Enron Corp.'s collapse and bankruptcy has touched all sorts of unlikely suspects. There isn't a company in America that cannot plausibly be investigated, and there isn't an investigation unworthy of public attention.


Black Blade: A matter of the fox guarding the hen house? Then again, incompetence would not be all that surprising.
sector
There Never WAS a Recession...So Your Fired!
CSFB Fires 300 Investment BankersCSFB fires 15% of investment banking workforce
By Lina Saigol in London and John Labate in New York
Published: April 2 2002 19:52 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 00:52

Credit Suisse First Boston on Tuesday fired 300 investment bankers, including 50 managing directors, in the latest effort by new chief executive John Mack to cut the company's high cost structure.

The job cuts, which represent around 15 per cent of CSFB's investment banking workforce, are some of the most aggressive on Wall Street this year. Investment banks have cut more than 25,000 jobs already as activity on Wall Street and in London's financial district slowed dramatically in profitable areas such as underwriting and mergers and acquisitions.

But for the first time the axe is falling on significant numbers of senior employees, many of whom at CSFB are on lucrative guaranteed contracts put in place by Alan Wheat, Mr Mack's predecessor.

Adebayo Ogunlesi, appointed head of investment banking at CSFB last month, told staff of the job cuts in a memo on Tuesday afternoon.

"I understand that change is not easy, but I have been enormously proud of the effort and contribution that all of you have made to ensure our Division's success . . . With these changes behind us, we now need to unleash the energy and extraordinary talents of the best group of professionals in the industry," Mr Ogunlesi wrote.

Mr Mack has pledged to cut $1bn in costs by the end of the year. Between September and October, the investment bank shed 2,500 positions, including 700 investment bankers, which were in addition to a round of cuts made soon after its merger the year before with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.

The merger with DLJ is part of the reason CSFB has such high compensation costs. CSFB's compensation is about 58 per cent of net revenue. That compares with rivals such as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, whose compensation accounts for roughly 50 per cent of revenue.

After the latest cuts, CSFB will have around 1,900 staff in investment banking, about the same number it had before the DLJ merger.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The mouth pieces from Treasury [Paul O'Neill] will think twice before making any more announcements of a "Recovery".
Bulldog
Price of Oil
Black Blade some advice pleaseI am assuming that the entire Islam world is looking to wreck havoc on the U.S. Arabs supply money, Iraq & Iran weapons of destruction and the various terrorist groups, Hamas, Al Quaeda, etc. do the physical damage. I have heard you wax eloquently about the future price of oil. Since oil today hit a six month high, do you think this is an excellent opportunity for oil futures on the long side?
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
POG up,SharesDOWN,What's Up Doc?
Hello fellow Gold bugs, Long time lurker with macro-economic theory for a hobby. This is the 400 level finance course I never found at the university in the "happy valley". Methinks the disparity of the POG vs. the shares is due to the high volumes sold at upper price levels in expectation of 320 gold. Early birds are taking profits and too many late pidgeons have landed on a hot wire. The fact that POG is hovering over 300 is actually a negative factor for the shares because it's the Anticipation of it crossing 300 that gets the lemmings a leapin. Now it's like "I actually got to talk to her", but maybe she won't want to go out with me. Hey baby lets go to 310 and see if there is any oil on sale under 35 a barrel? Nope she's skittish and it's good for the scottish because ya gots ta buy em a wee bit cheeper so ya can become again a sounder sleeper. In like six months which ones haven't doubled?? wELL How much more fireworks are left in the bag. Better check my Fibanichi Ratios to sprinkle on my ramen noodles. Are they ready for a 30% or a 50% or the 22% retracement FROM WHAT the past month's rally or from the whole six month move? Big question on the Big Boy's minds. "Well we aren't quite sure". So they shorted in and they're selling to knock them down so they can buy it back cheaper. Smart money chasing dumb money like cats and dogs. But since gold and defense are the only bull sectors the lemmings will be back for slaughter house five in the panic sell. All that has to happen is for POG to drop under 300 for a few days and you can reread Withering Heights. Personally I don't see the minor's patterns resembling the majors and HL proved the late bloomer could hit a home run too. And I'm crying over ROOY again II. I wouldn't touch a geld moan share at this time. I'd only sell, like tomorrow at the open or catch the big red candle down. I'm only saying this for the short term. In the long term I think we will see a bifurcation of the gold market, when futures contracts get stamped "payable in cash only" before TSHTF, IMNSHO. And little physical to go around. Faith is what Jimmy Carter said we needed when POG was over 750. I remember the speech. We had a faith crisis. How much faith crisis do we have is the upside blush on the precious metals rally. Israel does not have the manpower to do another six day war, not with all the hardware the sons of Ishmael have now. So are we talking low level nuclear and a realm of USA haters because "Bush failed to contain the Israelis". That is exactly what I think it's headed to. In the long run, Israel ends up being occupied for 42 months, from the back of my history book. For it to be "occupied" it has to exist. So with all the holy people not caring about what's holy 'Thou shalt not kill' whoever wins is another's choice. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the US could get in serious trouble fighting in two hemispheres with a serious lack of oil. China wants Taiwan and whoever sells their bonds will inhibit the other ones from selling theirs. Money is bullets in the financial war. The fed uses bonds to soak up excess M1 and M2. Monetary expansion is only jeopardized by a lack of economic expansion. If the US is able to tender its currency all over the world then that is how far the tentacles reach. Only where there is an alternative do we see competitive fiat systems making inroads to the big scam. I'm a realist. The US dollar is now backed by the big gun. Does anybody want to play? So as we see the European bloc forming under monetization of the euro that is not "backed by gold", the Americas under the dollar, and the Asian Tigers in their own circus with the yen. Britian ends up breaking up because its too small. What's a pound of pounds worth without any gold behind it. So Europe gets the UK islands near it. Australia will kiss up to the US for a new clear umbrella. And Canada is going to end up as the 51st state of America infront of Mexico that's destined to be the 52nd. Repatriation of wealth is the circus of this decade that no one can get a real grip on. Who can measure M3? The derivative casino is a deflationary force that soaks up dollars that may never get redeamed for real goods. That is where I see the water coming over the edge. Dollars will eventually get redeamed for real goods. Its amazing how the whole world loves green ink and paper. But for how long? There aren't many hamburgers at the stand for all the coupons they have printed. Britain may cave in to the Germans and go with the Euro but they aren't going to sell out of the USA. It's not a all-or-nothing scenario either. The rich have freedoms to domicile their wealth anywhere they want to. The Euro is near the status of the Confederate States of America 1860's style. They had two futile wars for a union but no one could speak enough German. So why do you think they can get a union without force? People in high places sipping wine just give up their power. Yeah the Federal guys all move down to the state level and the state guys move down to the local level. But where do the local guys go to? Oh yeah, they all go home. Never son. The southern Euro members will bleed the union dry with mismanagement. Lira into the river because they're too heavy to carry around. The only way the US could keep their union together was by force in a bloody worthless civil war. Europe is going to try it the peaceful way. Why do some goldbugs think the whole world needs to get to Armageddon for the POG to hit 1000. If gold was like any other commodity that was in demand as it is right now it can do 1000 POG. The dollar can go up with gold I've seen it. I'm more bullish on gold when I see that because it makes no sense. It shows an extreme demand not fear driven. When the dollar goes up and gold goes up it means a purer demand for gold is present in a proactive trend not merely reactionary. Like how Eggnog only comes around once a year. It's unique. I'm not touting geld moaning shares because its takes alot of guts to hold them. Look up ASL and check for the crash down, ABX and AU are about as scarey, sometimes the robbers get stuck in the hedges and can't escape. Just wait, all is not wonderful in the world of mining finance. When they want to buy back stock they flood the mines. Not that they have to add any water as they flood naturally when they turn off the pumps. Then they survey high grade areas and project vast reserves. Enron would never happen at a gold mining company because the accountants there are so much more adept at hiding numbers with new acquisitions. It's what it is, gambling. And everything I said is wrong if POG spikes up to 310 and holds. Hopefully I opened up a few cans of worms so we can spark up some more worthwhile discussion in keeping with the heritage of the greatest forum in gold. To keep truth in your innermost being I think one must run the gauntlet of this world. Getting ridiculed and jabbed is nothing new for the older goldbugs. I bought my first 3 Kruggerands at 174 and sold at 385. All my grass cutting money, hard earned kid cash. Those were the days. Then interest rates hit 22% and there were lines outside coin stores of people wanting to buy gold at 800 an ounce. The gold rush of '79...............to be continued............. :)
Black Blade
Russian Oil Companies Struggling To Replenish Reserves
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020402/200204021223000508_1.html

MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Russian oil companies are struggling to replenish reserves this year, the news agency Interfax reported Tuesday, citing Deputy Energy Minster Valentin Shelepov.

Expected new reserve discoveries this year will be less than last year, Shelepov told a press conference in St. Petersburg .

In 2001, the country discovered about 300 million metric tons, or 2.2 billion barrels, but produced 347 million tons, or 2.536 billion bbl, an average of 6.950 million barrels a day.

Shelepov didn't forecast how much oil would be found in 2002, but said: " Distressing reports have been coming in from explorers in the first few months of the year."


Black Blade: As I have posted before. Don't look to the former Soviet republics for oil.
Pizz
A few comments to any interested
Hey friends, relax. Mood of the forum is starting to resemble day traders with more than they can afford bet on the come.

QUIT LOOKING AT EVERY LITTLE SPIKE, DIP, AND TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE MARKETS. Wether spot or paper.

YOU'LL DRIVE YOURSELF NUTS!!!!! Calm and confident should be the mood of the day, week, month and year as we watch what we believe, come to pass.

Gold and Silver are moving up. We know why. PM stocks are moving up - THEY WILL LEAD SPOT JUST LIKE THE SM'S LEAD THE ECONOMY. Stocks will not move like spot, they are more emotional because they are easier to buy and sell. Today they are neither ahead of gold or behind it, they are just there. Tomorrow will be different. They do not have to move in tandem and make sense hour by hour or even day to day.

Stock buyers are not spot PM buyers and vice versa. Some of us here are part of a small group that both buy spot and dabble in a little bit of paper. Most buy paper and are in for the short term. Don't follow the herd. NOTHING MOVES STAIGHT UP (OR DOWN FOR THAT MATTER).

Keep adding to your physcial position - it's the safest bet in town. THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NEVER BEEN BETTER IN ANY OF OUR LIFETIMES.

If you play paper (and most of us do), take your positions, ride them up - that's where they're going LONG TERM - and liquidate as you feel comfortable and buy more physical. Gold and silver are ready to break - up -. When they do, at the worst case senario IMHO, 10 to 15 years from now, gold should be trading in the thousands. Silver in the hundreds. May be 1 to 3 years - so what. Most of us still think in terms of fiat. THINK IN TERMS OF WEATH ACCUMULATION AND ANY FIAT YOU MAKE, INVEST IN WEALTH. We know the definition of wealth - Don't we???

Keep the faith and patience will be a virture you can either retire on or live very well (at least better than your peers.)

For those of you who like silver (I do), keep the faith. 90% of this country either can't (thats most of them) or won't buy gold because of price. When the bulk of the populace finally figure out what we know, just what in the heck are they going to buy???? My guess is silver.

GR2 - WHAT???????

Pizz
Black Blade
Re: Bulldog � Oil

Sorry, but I don't speculate with futures contracts. However, I believe that the long-term outlook for energy is higher prices due to dwindling supply and increased demand. That said, it is possible that Middle East tensions may smooth out and oil prices might pull back some. I tend to invest in energy trusts (oil and natural gas), partnerships (propane), niche energy markets (uranium fuel reprocessing), natural gas pipelines, and some natural gas dominated utilities. And Gold and Silver of course.

The point is that we are not likely to see "Cheap Energy" again. The transmission grid is antiquated and in serious disrepair. Any economic recovery will only increase demand for energy � energy that we simply do not have. Energy is one cost that must sink straight to the corporate (and consumer) bottom line. This cost cannot be avoided or trimmed back if corporations wish to expand production. The bull market of the 1980's and 1990's were mostly due to an abundance of "Cheap Energy". Therefore any economic recovery in the short term is speculative at best.

In fact over the last couple of days while the price of oil and natural gas (and Gold) were rising strongly, the same oddball statements about "energy is not important to the economy anymore" were heard on various financial media. Even Alan Greenspan said such nonsense. Yet during the tech and dot.com boom we saw a tremendous growth in computers, server farms, increased telecom use of the Internet, a general rapid growth in industrial manufacturing, etc. The system finally imploded and the result was rolling blackouts in California, near collapse of the electrical grid on the East Coast (New York in particular), and states such as Washington refusing to sacrifice energy for energy deprived California (partly due to drought and partly due to phenomenal demand increases).

Since energy is strategically important to US national security and economic prosperity there have been calls in some quarters for an Energy Marshall Plan" to develop energy sources with the goal for energy independence. This is a desirable goal of course although extremely difficult given the political realities. It is possible that there will be a push from official quarters to move toward energy independence (possibly through a combination of conservation measures, relaxation of some environmental regulations and tax breaks). This of course will take several years. Therefore the long-term outlook for energy (natural gas in particular) is very strong.

This brings us to Gold and Silver as portfolio insurance. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an "energy crisis". Whether it was the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution and Russian Invasion of Afghanistan, or the 1990 Gulf War, each event preceded an economic recession. Of course Gold and Silver prices responded as well they should during periods of economic uncertainty. Some these event also led to double digit inflation and prompted politicians to emplace price controls. The end result was make a bad situation worse. We also know that Gold and Silver rocketed to record high prices. So from my point of view one could do well to invest in energy and insure ones portfolio with precious metals (the alternative currency).

I hope this helps, Cheers!

- Black Blade


YGM
ALL.......Gold Rush!
Question of $20. or $30. day runs.....From my view that would be lovely to see, 'BUT'
Remember Oct. /99 Gold ran up as much as +/- $10/$15 a day for a couple days and went from ?$260. range to $325. range +/-(I don't remember exact #'s) but my point is it stayed up for about 10 days/2 wks and the shorts (major ones)& Cabal never blinked, they just drove it back down over time. What I wish to see is the small but significant moves we're having now continue and the shorts continue their Kamakaze dives over a period of at least 30 days give or take and when they wake up and and smell the fire it will be too late and then and only then will they "PANIC" and feed the non-extinguishable fire with their own buying. I know about "ALL" the factors that can and will fuel the fire but think we definately need long exposure to higher prices before the Cabal will abandon the leaky ship that they have kept afloat for so long.....FWIW....YGM

PS: I do believe that time is finally under way and not another false hope. Their Bilge Pumps are worn out with rhetoric and over use. Go Physical & Sleep Well.
Black Blade
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Energy on the Rise

Snippit:

Tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices and lower profit forecasts all weighed on today's markets. Oil prices rose by $0.83 a barrel to $27.75, while natural gas prices ended the session with a $0.09 gain at $3.635. Prices of energy have been rising across the board due to rising tensions in the Middle East, which could cause a disruption in oil supplies to the West. Oil prices climbed higher after Iraq, a key OPEC state, threatened to cut off supplies to the West to force Israel to capitulate to Palestinian demands. Iraq is in discussions with Iran to impose and oil embargo against the U.S. should it decide to support Israel or move against Iraqi leadership. Iran has been caught supplying Arafat with arms, putting it on the list of states that contribute and support various terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Fattah, and al Qaeda. Today, Iran said the use of an oil embargo could be very effective in forcing Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories. Iraq and Iran are moving to gain consensus with other OPEC members for an oil embargo against the U.S. and its allies in the region. With OPEC having cut back oil production and inventories of oil falling more than expected has resulted in oil prices heading back towards $30 a barrel. Crude prices at the end of the day were at their highest level in more than six months.

The growing conflict in the Middle East is also helping to push up prices in gold and silver. Gold prices closed at $306.90 on the NYMEX while silver prices rose $0.04 to $4.74. Up until recently during periods of political tension or an economic crisis, the U.S. dollar was the preferred haven in times of crisis. Not this time. The greenback is now considered vulnerable, and the attack on the Trade Towers also shows the U.S. itself is susceptible to attack. Therefore, global investors are turning toward gold and silver as a safe refuge during times of economic and political turmoil. Central bankers are trying to fight the shift out of paper assets into gold and silver by trying to resurrect the gold carry trade, hoping to encourage the selling of gold. Right now gold lease rates have come down while Treasury yields have gone up. The spread between the two rates, what it costs to borrow and sell gold, and invest in U.S. Treasuries has widened over the last three months.



Black Blade: Another interesting article.
Black Blade
U.S. to Tap Pension Funds to Avoid Hitting Debt Limit
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APKnL3RU4VS5TLiB0
Snippit:

Washington, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will reach the limit of its authority to borrow money on April 4, forcing the Treasury Department to tap a $40 billion civil service retirement fund to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said.

In a letter to congressional leaders, O'Neill said their refusal to lift the mandated $5.95 trillion debt limit will force him to tap the Federal Retirement Thrift Savings Fund, also known as the G-Fund.

Over the next 10 business days the government has obligations totaling $45 billion to $55 billion, including $27 billion in Social Security payments which it would be unable to meet without the maneuvering.



Black Blade: Can you say: "We're bankrupt!" I knew you could.
Black Blade
Soaring Oil Prices Seen Jeopardizing Economic Recovery
http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buildhbee/cn/GoArt!201098,201098,515813/SH/0/depot/0/index.html
HB/svu D�SSELDORF/BERLIN. As the Middle East conflict escalates, economists and other experts are debating the extent of the threat that rising oil prices can be said to present to the upturn in the global economy expected later this year.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that if the price of oil rises by a further $10 a barrel, it could shave half a percentage point off GDP growth in the industrialized world. Based on this calculation, Germany's GDP would grow by just 0.2% in 2002.

The current oil price already stands above the upper level of $25 a barrel on which the German government's council of independent advisers based its economic forecasts in autumn last year. "Expensive oil is a risk factor which we didn't see at the time," said Jens Weidmann, general secretary of the council. But the council as yet sees no reason to revise down its GDP growth forecast of around 0.75% for 2002.


Black Blade: These are rather optimistic projections IMO. Many foriegn countries are basing an economic recovery on a "supposed" Us economic recovery.
Black Blade
Economic wild card: oil prices
http://www.iht.com/articles/53290.html
Snippit:

If nerves are jittery right now in the Middle East, jitters likewise are rippling through the oil markets - and from there rattling perceptions about inflation and world economic growth. For now, the sharp jump in oil prices this year - and particularly in the last couple of weeks - isn't causing economists to race to their computers to recalculate global growth rates.
.
But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery.
.
With Iraq and Iran both threatening Tuesday to use a cutoff of their oil supplies as a weapon in support of the Palestinians, the Middle East looms large as a powerful catalyst - along with the recovering world economy - to higher oil prices.
.
But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery.
Strad Master
General Question
Several months ago someone here posted up the URL for a peculiar web site that proclaimed that around this time there would be great turmoil in Israel and throughout the world. It was called something like "Zion Time". I only scanned it briefly, preferring to bookmark it and come back to it now, when the time was ripe. I do recall, though, that it had something to do with specific advice for Jews and non-Jews on surviving the crisis which they claimed was imminent, part of which involved tearing a dollar bill in half and sending half to them in Israel. Anyway, the bookmark I had for that site no longer seems to work. Considering recent events, I was curious to do a more comprehensive read of what they had predicted. Any information on where that site may have moved to if it still exists at all?
Pippin
Black Blade - your 72.585
<>

Strange - I don't clearly understand this statement. I always believed that one had to own goods (and be in debts) in case in inflation rather than owning cash.
Since product will be more expensive in one month than today, I will buy it today and sell it in one month, even sometimes if I have to get in debts. So this is likely to accelerate the spending - not the opposite.

What did I miss ?

Black Blade
Minister slams Japanese bureaucrats
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1906000/1906265.stm
Snippit:

Japan's finance minister has delivered a tongue-lashing both to his own officials and to Japan's biggest bank, Mizuho. In a near-unprecedented public tirade against both the bank and his own officials, Masajuro Shiokawa complained that the urgency of Japan's financial problems was not getting through to them.


Black Blade: At least someone understands the dire situation surrounding insolvent Japanese banks and the crumbling Japanese economy. It appears that the Japanese government pension fund came into the market to give support to the Nikkei that fell off a cliff at the start though finished positive by +196 points at the end of the trading session.

Topaz
Strad Master
http://550.org.il/index.htmlThe site goes around in circles a bit.....enjoy!
Golden Bear
Pippin (msg#: 72587)
Greetings Pippin,

Both you and BB are correct: inflation causes the value of each fiat unit to be worth less so you must pay more for the same goods than you did previously. During gradual inflation, many go into debt to purchase goods to be paid back later in devalued fiat.

But at some point, the inflation begins to get out of hand - the bond market starts to demand higher interest rates to take on the risk of buying bonds, and this forces the central banks to raise rates to cool off the economy -> decreased consumer spending.

Cheers.
Mr Gresham
nickel62, Pizz, Gauntlet-Runner2
nickel62, great post from Henry Liu, with lots of perspectives on the big picture as we may not have seen it yet. The move to US finance capitalism ahead of Chinese and others is a game-ending move, but not a winning one. "Resigns."

Pizz -- good reminder to keep eyes on Wealth.

GR2 -- great first post! A little bit of Harry Schultz, by way of Vonnegut & Joyce, eh? (Or is it Tom Robbins?) BTW, (ask R Powell for our old homies list), might your Gauntlet be Rt. 9, if your valley be the happy one?



Belgian
With (reserved) conviction ?
With the help of Fibonacci on POG (LT) : When POG goes through 308$ (with two day closes) >>> GOLD is set FREE !
NIA = No Investment Advise !

CBII : The article by Henry C K Liu = Marvellously worded and the greatest encouragement for all those, not yet *Physically* into the yellow lifeboat. Thanks.
Topaz
nickel62 (4/2/02; 15:56:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 72552
Mr Liu certainly walks the path less tread eh? Great perspective - a little bit of the Oil "SPONGE" factor ( rising oil prices to sop up US$'s )we are witnessing - NOT to cause inflation but rather to attempt to control DEflation!! "Black Gold"..HA!....rather more like "Liquid Paper".
Black Blade
Gold Rebounds
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=1&t=l&a=1
Gold was under pressure in after hours, though now has recovered above the $305/oz. level (see graph). Meanwhile tensions in the Middle East are still a concern as street battles have broken out with several Palestinians taking sanctuary in a christian cathedral and another group in a christian convent. Israeli tanks have moved into Jenin and are about to move into some other West Bank towns for house to house searches and minor skirmishes.

Iraq and Iran (at the behest of Iraq, the PA, and Hezbollah) both are now contemplating an Oil Embargo against the west. Combined they both can create shortages that would resemble the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. It appears that this situation has a way to go yet.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Businesses sing bottom-line blues
http://www.msnbc.com/news/732418.asp
Despite rebound, firms� profit crunch haunts recovery

Snippit:

THAT�S BECAUSE THE mildness of the recession masked a ferocious corporate-profits crunch that has many chief executives still slashing jobs and other costs. If they continue, the cuts could slow the recovery. But the recession was one of the harshest in memory when measured by changes in profit levels. The Commerce Department said aftertax corporate profits declined 15.9 percent last year, one of the worst annual profit declines since World War II.

Black Blade: And it's not getting any better. Profits (the real kind of profits) have failed to materialize in spite of the wildest Pro Forma accounting from the Arthur Andersen school of finance. The investing public now more than ever realize that the Emperor wears no clothes.
Grubstaker
the REST of the story. RE: usagold.com msg#: 72583) the REST if the story...
04/02 10:18
U.S. to Tap Pension Funds to Avoid Hitting Debt Limit (Update1)
By Simon Kennedy

Washington, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will reach the limit of its authority to borrow money on April 4, forcing the Treasury Department to tap a $40 billion civil service retirement fund to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said.

In a letter to congressional leaders, O'Neill said their refusal to lift the mandated $5.95 trillion debt limit will force him to tap the Federal Retirement Thrift Savings Fund, also known as the G-Fund.

Over the next 10 business days the government has obligations totaling $45 billion to $55 billion, including $27 billion in Social Security payments which it would be unable to meet without the maneuvering.

Treasury will sell $46 billion in short-term cash management bills this week to cover those expenditures. By mid-April, a slew of income tax receipts will provide the government with fresh cash and end the need to juggle funds. In his letter, O'Neill said he would end use of the G-Fund ``on or about'' April 18.

Congress has refused O'Neill's repeated requests to raise the limit by $750 billion, a move necessitated by additional spending for the war on terrorism, a drop in tax receipts brought on by the recession, and regularly increasing payments for Social Security benefits.

``We must continue working to enact an increase in the statutory debt limit as quickly as possible to avoid any negative repercussions at home or abroad,'' O'Neill wrote in his letter, which was released by the Treasury Department.

Following Rubin's Lead

Republicans in Congress want to maintain the limit as a check on spending. Democrats want to keep it so they can blame President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the government's inability to pay its debts. Congress is now in recess until April 8, and no action is expected for several weeks.

In tapping the G-Fund, O'Neill is following the lead of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.

The last time the government reached its borrowing limit, in 1995 and early 1996, Rubin reworked auction schedules, stopped selling savings bonds and manipulated government retirement accounts such as the G-Fund to find $139 billion and remain beneath the ceiling.

The G-Fund was created in the early 1980s. Its assets are represented by a non-marketable government security with a one-day maturity. Each night, a new security paying the latest interest rates automatically replaces the maturing one.

Beneficiaries Protected

By suspending the nightly update or rollover, and leaving an IOU in place of the assets, O'Neill extinguishes debt, enabling Treasury to sell new notes or bills without threatening to breach the debt ceiling.

``G-Fund beneficiaries are full protected and will suffer no adverse consequences from this action'' because the money will be paid back in full once the debt limit is raised, O'Neill wrote.

``In short, the result on the G-Fund and its beneficiaries will be the same as if this temporary action had never taken place,'' he wrote.

Treasury officials have also used regular auctions to buy time. The department's debt managers pared the size of 4-week bill auctions, cutting issuance to $19 billion from $23 billion. They also capped the amount of two-year notes sold in March at February's level of $25 billion.

In a statement, Peter Fisher, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, said the department would take ``every prudent step'' to avoid breaching the debt limit. ``As we work with Congress to raise the limit going forward, we will do our utmost to avoid disruptions in our normal borrowing patterns,'' he said.

The government sells securities to pay its bills while it waits for tax receipts to come in, and to pay the interest on existing debt. The first debt ceiling of $11.5 billion was introduced in 1917. It reached $1.1 trillion in 1981 and was last boosted, from $5.5 trillion, as part of a bipartisan balanced budget agreement in 1997.

Few Repercussions

While the 1995-1996 crisis injected volatility into the $3 trillion government security market, few analysts expect there to be any repercussions from O'Neill's moves.

Treasury began to highlight its problem in December and signaled that it was considering copying Rubin's strategy, limiting the likelihood that the maneuvering will cause higher interest rates, analysts said.

``They made it clear early enough what they were thinking of doing so they'll not incur costs,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Associates Inc., a research firm.

And unlike 1996, when Moody's Investors Service placed U.S. debt ``on review for possible downgrade,'' the creditworthiness of U.S. government debt is not in doubt now.

``It's still the top credit on the planet,'' said Sean Egan, managing director of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Wynnewood, Pennsylvania. ``Terrorist attacks didn't change that so neither will this.''

Political Fallout

There are some risks. Foreign investors who don't understand the nuances of his actions could begin to ``question the credibility'' of the Treasury when it says it can back up its debt obligations, said Gerald Lucas, a government bond analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. That could mean a rise in interest rates.

``There are methods to get around Congress, but when it's playing politics with the debt limit that leads to a risk premium on U.S. debt,'' he said.

Rubin's actions in 1995 also brought threats of impeachment from Republicans in Congress.

The worst O'Neill may face is criticism for touching retirement accounts at the same time as lawmakers are complaining about the impact of Enron Corp.'s collapse on its employees' pension funds, said Stephen Stanley, an economist at Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut.

``There may be political fallout because the Enron crisis has raised sensitivity toward retirement funds,'' he said. ``But that will be the only fallout.''
***********************************************************
For the record:
I am personally fully invested in this US Government fund as a former civil service employee. This is not the first time the "G" fund has been used as a political football.
This fund is safer than ANY US Treasury issue, period. It is a special issue US Treasury fund open ONLY to US Government employees, including US Senators and US Congressmen.
"It is better to refrain from commenting when one does not know of which he speaks"
Good Day,
"G" man
nickel62
Can anyone comment on this or on its factuality ....It is fairly significant I think...Bestse Post open pit mine was the wellspring that made American Barrick the financial behemouth that it became...
The "Deep Post" high grade underground mine was located under the open pit mine but I only saw this information posted on Le Metropole Cafe website. Now I can't seem to locate it again..This is a quote from a mining executive's letter sent to Murphey and published there on the web site.


"Do you find it interesting that recently Barricks Betze Open Pit in Nevada failed a little earlier than expected bringing down 70 Million tons of rock. Guess where it landed ? On top of the Deep Post underground mine, burying 180,000 ozs of gold forever. And my my not a word in the press. Why ? Because the failure was expected ? Maybe, but not the loss of the ounces in the Deep Post !!!!!!!!!!! Ounces that may be important to delivery into thier hedge ? This information came to me at an annual mine safety refresher class given by the State of Nevada ...."
nickel62
Please take note of GOldman news only let out last friday when no one was around....Very important...!!!
Here is a sign that the manipulation is finally being recognized for what it is...Goldman did manage to get it released on Good Friday when the markets are closed...maybe we can help them get it publicized a little more broadly...too bad CNBC hasn't had a chance to mention this yet! Must be too busy touting GE 30 year bonds...
Goldman May Be Charged Over Bond Trading, People Say (Update1)
By Vicky Stamas


Washington, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been notified that the Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement staff plans to pursue a case against the third-biggest securities firm for trading Treasury bonds based on inside information, a person familiar with the case said.

The agency began investigating Goldman after a consultant the firm had hired gave traders advance warning Oct. 31 that the U.S. Treasury Department would stop selling 30-year bonds. The $3 trillion Treasury market rallied, with the 30-year bond having its biggest one-day gain in 14 years.

The SEC notification, called a ``Wells notice,'' is one of the last steps before the agency's staff asks the commission to discipline a securities firm by filing a civil lawsuit or administrative proceeding.

``It means the staff has reached a conclusion, subject to your persuading them otherwise, that your client ought to be charged with some violation of the federal securities laws,'' said John Olson, senior partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher in Washington.

A case against Goldman would be the first insider-trading bond case in memory, some lawyers said. ``I'm not certain I can recall a single case involving bonds, but there's absolutely no reason that a case could not involve bonds,'' said Joel Seligman, dean of the Washington University School of Law. ``It can involve any security.''

Lucas Van Praag, a Goldman spokesman in New York, declined to comment, as did SEC enforcement chief Stephen M. Cutler and Treasury spokeswoman Betsy Holahan. The consultant hired by Goldman, Peter Davis, president of Davis Capital Investment Ideas, had no comment.

Davis also received a Wells notice, according to the person familiar with the case.

Explaining a Surge

Goldman spokesman Peter Dietlmaier said Nov. 12 that the firm was among the companies told of the Treasury's decision before the government announcement. The firm didn't engage in wrongful behavior and will assist authorities with an investigation, he said at the time.

The firm, the third largest by capital, wouldn't comment then on whether its traders tried to benefit from the information by buying bonds before the government's announcement. Securities laws prohibit trading on non-public information.

Davis said he told clients of the Treasury's decision to stop selling bonds, based on a press briefing he attended at 9 a.m. on Oct. 31, before the department made the announcement at 10 a.m. Government officials held the briefing, intended for reporters, on condition that the media not release the information until 10 a.m.

The Treasury itself posted the news on its Web site at 9:43 a.m., 17 minutes before the embargo ended.

The Davis leak helped explain a rise in prices that at the time dumbfounded traders and investors in the bond market, where $300 billion of securities trade daily.

The benchmark Treasury bond price jumped from 102 1/2 at 9:30 a.m. New York time, when the meeting with the press ended, to 104 at 10 a.m. By contrast, between 9 a.m. and 9:30 a.m., the bond traded within a range of 1/8 point.

Treasuries had fallen on an 8:30 a.m. report that showed U.S. growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations. Traders scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve would lower its target interest rate by half a percentage point.

Buying soon overwhelmed those who were selling on the economic report. The rising bond price sent its yield down 9 basis points in the 12 minutes before 10 a.m.

Falling Yields

The price surge wreaked havoc among bond traders, many of whom were locked into bets that yields on 30-year bonds would rise relative to short-term debt, such as two-year notes, traders said.

Instead, the bond buying shrank the two- to 30-year yield gap by 30 basis points in a few hours, marking the reversal of the strategy that had proven profitable for almost a year.

By day's end, the Treasury's announcement had sparked the biggest one-day gain in 14 years, and pushed the yields to levels not seen since Russia's debt default and the collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998.

U.S. Treasury General Counsel David Aufhauser said in November that his agency would ask the SEC to investigate the matter.

Davis said he also disclosed the Treasury's decision to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates and Capra Asset Management. Ray Stone, a managing partner of Stone & McCarthy, declined to comment.

James Capra, president of Capra, didn't return a call. He chairs the Treasury Advisory Borrowing Committee, a group that advises the government on the mix of debt securities it sells. The group had recommended the elimination of the 30-year bond in January 2000, when surpluses were projected to continue growing. Traders hadn't expected the bond to be eliminated because a return to budget deficits meant an increased borrowing need.

The SEC has authority to determine whether insider-trading laws have been violated. It can subpoena trading records to see if Wall Street firms were given advance notice of the Treasury's decision.


YGM
Nickel 162
burying 180,000 ozs of gold "forever"From a Goldminers viewpoint a couple things spring to mind.. Firstly, nothings buried forever! Not if the grades were high enough. Secondly, if it buried the part of the deposit that was being worked underground then a new adit is not that expensive to open. Remember they had to move alot of overburden in the first place to get to the Gold. Also all large Cap miners like ABX don't even mine small deposits like 180 K oz's. They usually sell off any property with less than 500 K oz's to a junior producer. All things considered it seems like either smoke and mirrors for whatever reason or media is making too much of it....FWIW....YGM.
Spartacus
Japan
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3X6RGJJZC&live=true&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
Japan deflation unmoved by monetary base growth By Mariko Sanchanta.

---Japan's monetary base surged in March by its largest monthly increase in 28 years, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday.

The monetary base, a combination of bank reserves and money in circulation, rose 32.6 per cent year-on-year to Y87,150bn, and has risen consecutively for over a year

Banknotes in circulation increased by 14.6 per cent in March year-on-year, following a rise of 12.4 per cent in February. ---


nickel62
YGM
I know you are an actual miner with many years of experience so I appreciate your comments. But if I am correct and I have been to the Goldstrike property five or six times with both Barrick and Newmont over the last ten years, the Betse Post deposit was one of the northernly parts of the gigantic open pit that used to be a mountain that was collectively called the Goldstrike Mine. It was located in the northern part of the property right near the property boarder with Newmont. What I interpreted happened is that the slope was too steep and collapsed a little sooner then expected and closed access to the underground, I assume from the bottom of the goldstrike open pit with the 70 million tonnes of waste falling from the sides of the open pit. If that is the case it might mean that the economics of getting to that portion of the underground deposit beneath the open pit is no longer viable economically. Newmont's underground is also under their deposit a few miles away and if I remember correctly the Deep Post deposit was a large deposit that was accessed via adits driven into the bottom of the open Goldstrik pit and it seems that was the access that was "lost" under the collapsed overburden from the pits collapse. With all of the forward hedging I wonder why no one has mentioned this before though if it was indeed true. There must be at least a few Nevada miners that lurk at this site or citizens of Elko Nevada that might have some accurate information on this situation. Thanks for your insight YGM, If I remember correctly you had a gold deposit with some high grade ore that was troubled by mud separation in the Yukon. Is there any chance that mine might be economic here again?
Spartacus
Inflationary Pressures
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APKsDlxX4VS5TLiBU

New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation.

``The longer rates stay at this level, the greater the likelihood that credit to finance growth will accelerate, the money supply will accelerate and inflationary pressures will result in time,'' Hoenig said in a speech to a Kansas City economic forum. He is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes next on May 7.

His comments differ from those of other Fed officials, including Robert McTeer, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, who said last week he is ``in no hurry'' to raise rates. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Robert Parry and Anthony Santomero have said they expect inflation to remain under control.


Spartacus
Inflationary Pressures
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APKsDlxX4VS5TLiBU

New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation.

``The longer rates stay at this level, the greater the likelihood that credit to finance growth will accelerate, the money supply will accelerate and inflationary pressures will result in time,'' Hoenig said in a speech to a Kansas City economic forum. He is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes next on May 7.

His comments differ from those of other Fed officials, including Robert McTeer, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, who said last week he is ``in no hurry'' to raise rates. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Robert Parry and Anthony Santomero have said they expect inflation to remain under control.


Henri
Whoa!
Someone is trashing the POG in NY
YGM
Nickel 162
I gave up and went bankrupt due to low Gold prices for last 7 years and am returning to the Placer workings of Dawson area (better grade creeks than my previous undertakings)
for the coming season on a wage and Gold sharing arrangement. No more shouldering of all the costs :))
An old adage of Placer miners is that the best way to mine is w/ someone else's money....YGM.

PS: Let the Cabal and Short crazies hammer Gold (ie: today's a good example of my last nites post) they will eventually find the anvil of physical offtake to much to bear. We still may be months away from that time IMHO....
People buying paper Gold will not keep the price high. Only those taking delivery of Physical will do that. Again just my opinion.....YGM
YGM
Bull Mkt in AU......
Will prove itself if.....The buyers are laying in the weeds waiting to go again after the Cabal have driven the price backwards to the limit. We'll see what the buying strength and true demand is then. This fools game they play couldn't be any more perfect for those players with deep pockets like Soros or Buffet etc........YGM.
CoBra(too)
POG - over $300 -
Hoping that the ceiling is turning out to be a new floor. More later - Best cb2

@ Belgian: Hello, friend -seems youre interpreting our chinese friend Liu as I do.

@ Nickel - You're more than welcome and re Betse Post - have heard same rumours too, though didn't have time to verify. BTW, YGM - good to see ya back - hope everything is going well with you!

@ Lady Leigh - thanks for your kind message before Easter - hope you've had also a great one.
Truthcaster
Gold's getting kicked
Wow looking around at the gold mining stocks
they are really being taken to the woodshed.
This all started yesterday with the gold stocks down from
3% to 8% and then with gold falling today down 4.50 at 8:45am cdt we have seen all of this week and last week gains
wiped out, with the big losses in glg, gold, cde, I hope
the 300 mark can hold if not look out below.. Truthcaster
nickel62
Panic of Truthcaster..
Yes that would be terrible if gold were to punch through $300! It would be almost a 2% drop certainly a reason to panic. Man thanks for sharing your insights about the downside potential..
nickel62
In actual fact truthcaster!
Newmont is off less than a $1.00 per share as we speak trading at $27.59 off it's low which is a same because I was trying to buy more. AEM and Goldcorp are barely off their highs. The hedgers are down less then a percent and a half...Where exactly are you seeing this collapse?
nickel62
YGM sorry to hear about the situation with your past mine..but glad to hear you are persavering...
I got wacked at the other side of the business as an investor so I understand the situation quite well. Do you have any insite into the situation of the old Wolverine Discovery that was trumpeted by Aetna Reasources in late 1995 and then ended up being controlled by Archer Cathro who are big in the Dawson area if I recall correctly. There was some talk of refinancing that property through their Expatriate Resources but I have lost touch. Any rumors in your area? Thanks in advance and good luck. Welcome back.
nickel62
Well "Truthcaster" cat got your tongue?
Feel free to respond if you care to continue. Or are you simply intested in making sure that the market gets your words of wisdom about the potential dangers of falling gold prices?
nickel62
Truthcaster the truth is even the stocks which you quoted are off only a fraction
GLG an old time Canadian spec stock which is off 2.6% intraday, GOLD or Goldfields is off .38 cents on a $10 plus stock after having doubled in the last four months and Cour de lane is a silver stock and is off 2 cents, hardly a reason to throw myself or any investor off the Brooklyn Bridge...what exactly is your interest in posting here?
Cavan Man
Belgian, CB (too)
Did I miss comments by this Mr. CK Liu? Can you illuminate? Homeward bound....CM
Cavan Man
PIZZ
Great thoughts on AU and AG; paper and metal.
Waverider
Cavan Man
Re: Mr. Liu - see yesterdays post by Nickel62 #72552. Cheers!
YGM
Nickel162
Wolverine Dep.I think it was an area play that lost it's luster. Atna president Peter Delancey (whom I know) is as sharp as a pin and never would have let it go otherwise. Atna had a good run w/ it tho....Expat----- is a ship of fools.
sector
Telcos Layoffs Continue...WorldCom
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3GSK0BLZC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BCWorldCom to cut 5,500 jobs and redeem bonds
By Richard Waters in New York
Published: April 3 2002 15:56 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 16:04

WorldCom is preparing to cut up to 10 per cent of the jobs at its main business services division, according to a person familiar with the plans.

The cuts, which would affect as many as 5,500 workers, mark the latest attempt by the US telecommunications company to come to terms with pressures in the troubled long-distance and data communications industries.

The lay-offs will not affect the 20,000 workers at MCI Communications, WorldCom's independently-listed consumer long-distance business, the person familiar with the plans said.

Separately, WorldCom said it would redeem $700m of bonds issued by MCI. The repurchase follows persistent speculation that a shortage of cash would eventually force WorldCom to cut the dividend paid to MCI's shareholders, and possibly repurchase the tracking stock. The telecoms company had consistently said that it has no such plans.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Weeeeeeee! Isn't this recovery GREAT! Just imagine how much FUN these workers are having�.as they prepare to visit the local unemployment office.
nickel62
Thanks YGM
Your insights as an actual participant in the business is invaluable to all of us.
nickel62
Belgian glad to repost best wishes to you! Cobra to found this one...
Creative accounting and the destructive risk
By Henry C K Liu
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, frequently credits US growth in the 1990s to a rise in productivity made possible by advances in technology. Yet studies have shown that computerization did not simulate much rise in industrial productivity in the 1990s. Industrial computerization was essentially in place long before 1995. The 1990s boom in the US was not an industrial boom but a financial boom. This was made possible by three developments: the deregulation of financial markets, the computerization of trading of financial instruments, and globalization, particularly financial globalization.

The entire structured finance (derivatives) phenomenon would not be possible without any one of the above mentioned developments. Structured finance in essence allowed an unprecedented explosion of credit, by unbundling risks for a wide range of risk-takers who sought corresponding compensatory returns. While hedging initially provided protection against volatility to individual market participants, it soon became a profit center for financial institutions. This led to the institutionalization of volatility as a market opportunity. Financial institutions actually sought volatility in the system to provide a continuous profit stream.

Creative accounting, whose peculiar logic evolved from structured finance, also made the traditional debt/equity ratio immaterial. Ways were devised for the large market participants to structure debt as hedges, through swaps that avoided taxes and balance-sheet liabilities. Swaps enabled borrowers legally to book loan proceeds as current operating income and loan liabilities as future capital expenditure that could be kept off the balance sheet, inflating current earnings. Circular counterparty risks suddenly became neutralized risk, and cash flow from swaps became net revenue. These practices are now known as Enronitis.

On the macro level, the global finance game has become a sure win for those who use dollars, especially those whose government issues dollars by fiat. The world market has become a place where the United States makes dollars and the rest of the world makes what dollars can buy. But after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the whole world essentially adopted dollarization, if not directly, at least through hedges, albeit sometimes at prohibitive cost.

At that point, the US economy suddenly began to lose its exclusive dollar hegemony advantage because US entities were no longer the only ones with access to dollars nor could US transnationals avoid non-dollar revenue. To maintain the "strong dollar" monetary policy instituted by US treasury secretary Robert Rubin at the beginning of the Bill Clinton presidency, the US Federal Reserve progressively tightened dollar money supply throughout most of the 1990s. But this did not slow the US economy because structured finance permitted debt to expand without a corresponding expansion of equity. A strong dollar gave the US economy a boom in low-cost imports, while the US trade deficit merely forced foreign exporters to hold dollar reserves to finance the US debt bubble through a US capital account surplus. Japan did this for a whole decade, pushing its own economy into permanent recession while its dollar reserves mounted. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan took up the slack from Japan by 1995 and the three Chinese economies together now hold more dollar reserves than Japan does. China, starved for capital for domestic development, thus finds itself stuck with US$200 billion in US Treasury bills that pay 5 percent while it is forced to offer foreign direct investment high double-digit returns. The annual interest gap alone is in excess of $20 billion, which amounts to half of China's current annual foreign-capital inflow.

Growth in the 1990s came from a structural shift of the US economy from industrial capitalism to finance capitalism. Through financial globalization, the US shifted labor intensive manufacturing off US soil to low-wage locations, thus lowering the cost of manufactured products. Financial products and services and intellectual property valuation constituted most of the growth, making the US a consumer market of last resort for the whole world. London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore became financial outposts of New York, sucking up dollar reserves to support the US debt bubble.

This game is ending, as the US consumer market becomes saturated and condemned to low single-digit growth, regardless of business cycles. The wealth effect from a tripling of equity value did not double consumption in the US, because aggregate demand is constrained by a widening income disparity. The rich have bought all the manufactured products they need and the working poor cannot afford to buy all they want. The wealth effect did double investment globally, reflected in the phenomenal rise in market capitalization of US transnationals and financial institutions, particularly in the so-called New Economy. The competition for credit favored double-digit growth markets in the developing countries, but the US continued to dominate global finance through its sophistication and innovation in finance and through dollar hegemony.

The problem is that all unregulated markets eventually self-destruct. Weak competitors are naturally forced off the market, leading to monopolies that are the result of market failure of competition. Yet regulation cannot cure the problem preemptively because remedial regulation only makes sense after disasters, never before.

There is increasing evidence that the real threat to China is not democracy or the market economy per se but the peculiar US version of these institutions. The 19th-century industrial capitalism that Marx observed no longer exists. Finance capitalism is a system in which capital is only a notional value upon which to build a gigantic mountain of hidden debt. Representative democracy and unregulated market fundamentalism in the US mode now work as legalized constitutional devices to disfranchise the poor and weak, both locally and globally.

Greenspan acknowledged this in his semiannual monetary policy report to the US Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services on February 27: "From one perspective, the ever-increasing proportion of our GDP [gross domestic product] that represents conceptual as distinct from physical value-added may actually have lessened cyclical volatility. In particular, the fact that concepts cannot be held as inventories means a greater share of GDP is not subject to a type of dynamics that amplifies cyclical swings. But an economy in which concepts form an important share of valuation has its own vulnerabilities." He was of course referring to Enronitis.

Greenspan's observation about the vulnerabilities of conceptual valuation was on target, although his warning of vulnerability was disproportionately misplaced. Even after the Enron and Global Crossing controversies, Greenspan continues to resist regulation, preferring to rely on market discipline. The risk is much higher than he admits.

Past records do not reliably project future vulnerability risk. Any risk manager knows that accidents are always waiting to happen. The fact that it has not happened in the past does not mean it will not happen in the future. In fact, with each passing day without an accident, the risk of borrowed time increases. Low probability is only a source of comfort if the impact is not fatal.

Also, what Greenspan did not say, but admitted by implication, was that finance capitalism is operating with less and less reliance on capital. Capital has become a notional value in structured finance. Credit is no longer anchored by equity but by circular hedges. Debt-to-equity ratio is no longer a relevant consideration. Practically all US major businesses nowadays, with their high debt leverage, would have negative real equity if the price/earning (P/E) ratio were to return to historical norms. Blue chips are being shut out of the unsecured short-term commercial paper market. Corporate credit ratings are inflated by exorbitant market capitalization value, which in turn reflects irrational P/E ratios. Even now, during what many on Wall Street contend to be a savage bear market, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index yields 25 times earnings. It would have to fall by another 41 percent to reach the median valuation prevailing since 1957.

Such a decline can happen in a period of days in this age of program trading and socialized risk, even with circuit breakers and trading curbs. When that happens, structured finance will be a sea of dead and wounded in counterparty casualties, regardless of who won and who lost.

Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New York-based Liu Investment Group.

nickel62
Sorry Belgian
I should have address the last post to Cavan
nickel62
Truthcaster Motive?
Your stocks that you were so concerned about an hour ago are now recovering nicely...the canadian gold Glamis is now down only a penny or two and Newmont is now off only 55 cents. Coure De Lane CDE is still of 2 cents and GOld is now off almost 37 cents WOW! Thanks for warning us about that disaster!
Pippin
WSJ: questionning the books
Found an interesting article in the electronic version of the Wall Street Journal with the subject "questionning the books".
Till now, I ignored that this type of investigations had already been started years ago, leading to surprising discoveries :

Quote
<>
UnQuote

So this is not an entirely problem. A two-year investigation does not look like normal auditing.

Restate four years of earnings!
I wonder what will happen if the SEC demonstrates that dividends paid to shareholders were exxagerated. Ask the shareholders to give them back :-) ?
Could this have a tax-related aspect? Because tax are paid on earnings and/or dividends in most countries. So if earnings were over-started, undue taxes were also paid...

One day, maybe, one will discover that cheating took place in the gold market-related accounting also...
Mr Gresham
Liu: China & WTO
http://csf.colorado.edu/pen-l/nov99/msg01829.htmlHere's a Henry Liu re-post on the longwaves forum...
Mr Gresham
Liu: Military Keynesianism
http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/pkt/2000/msg02796.htmlHope you don't mind if I stick this (kinda long) up here for later reading -- I think I like this guy...
R Powell
(No Subject)
Truthcaster and nickel62, please reread yesterday's posts 72561 from The Stranger and 72579 from Pizz. They should give some comfort and calm your nerves.

GR2, hello, does the Connecticut River flow through that "happy valley" you refered to? I agree that the POG has entered and can sustain a long term bull phase without any major crisis. Many of the underlying potential crisis causing problems you refered are fundamental reasons supporting a higher POG but can do so just by their existence, their potential to cause crisis. Hopefully, most will be defused over time. A much higher POG is actually the solution to some of these, no?

YGM, good to hear from you again. Even when you left to work (driving heavy equipment?) for wages I thought that the lure of a substantial strike would be with you. May the force be with you when you resume the search!
Rich
Mr Gresham
O Little Town of Bethlehem
http://www.msnbc.com/news/677951.asp?pne=msn"Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Michel Sabbah offered sanctuary to Palestinian militants in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity."

I've been. Very tiny place.

"A tank was stationed Wednesday at the edge of Manger Square, adjacent to the church."

David and Goliath. Roles claarly reversed.

Un-self-conscious arrogance.

Something not quite right here.

Including dumb moves on the chessboard of international relations -- and religions. Shooting yourself in the rear end. "Hey -- let's blow up EVERYONE'S religious icons while we're at it!" (Look what happened to the Taliban after they blew up those Buddhist statues.)

Bush and Sharon. Dumb and dumber. Can't these guys hire better advisors? Or, do they just not listen to the ones they already have?

I'm tryin' to get some work done today. Do I have to come down there and knock some heads together? That's what we hired YOU to do, Georgie. Tail wags dog again, don' look too good...
uponroof
'The American Advisor'
Just listened to their 12:30 report:

"...Gold beaten down today by the selling of a single large Bullion Bank. Their effort alone caused bullion to dip..."
* * * *

Now think about that...WHY WOULD YOU SELL GOLD IN THIS GLOBAL CLIMATE, INTO A RISING MARKET?!

If this doean't illustrate the desperation nothing does. 305 POG is NOTHING in historical terms!!!! But apparently it is something to be fiercly defended today thanks to a failed manipulation policy.

Don't know if this is related but just read that the Swiss were now selling 'only' 1/2 tonne per day, while up until recently they were selling 3/4 to 1 tonne per day. Perhaps they've increased selling today to make up for the reduced amounts of late. If not them, there's always the Germans to consider.

But ya know...who cares?!
Global demand will not be denied or deterred by strategic Central Bank selling. In fact, if they keep dicking around using reserves to fight a pissy little 305 mark, 'reserves' might become nothing but a memory after the dam breaks at 340.
RobotGuy
Blame it on,...hmmm,...let's see,.....
It seem to me that there's every excuse in the books for a downed market. Yesterday it was 'waiting on government decisions', the day before it was terrorist attacks and fear thereof, and today it's trouble in the mid-east and worries associated. When the markets are slightly up, they're "Soaring!" "Cruising" "Blasting off" "ripping through the ceiling" and my favorite "Off the canvas." Positive notes on good days are solely responsible for a climbing market, and positive notes on bad days are conveniently weighted to appear not so special. Why is it that the Japanese stock market can have a good day in all this terrible mid-east stuff that's drowning the North-American markets? Are the Japanese not affected by goings on in the middle-east, or do we merely need to find an excuse for a failing market?
How hard will it be for Alan Greenspan to swallow his tongue and admit to the public, 'oops we were wrong, we're not in recovery mode after all,.. teeheeheee. Hope you can forgive us for dipping into your civil servant retirement funds, and driving us deeper into the abyss.'
What happens to all of those poor souls who spend money on government bonds and hope to see thier money in thirty years,.. and oops, we spent that too, didn't we tell you?... Sorry.
This whole speil is like me and credit. I used to make more when there was more work, so I don't mind using a little credit, cause I know I'll make more when it gets busy again, and I can maintain my luxurious lifestyle and pay for it next year,.. or the year after,... or the year after. Soon my credit company says hmmmm,.. we've been looking at you're income lately and we feel you owe too much, so we're going to stop allowing you to utilize your credit for awhile. Sound familiar? Congress,... raise debt ceiling?? What can I do as an individual? Go to the bank and take out the money I was earning interest on and repay my creditors. If necessary, I could dip into my retirement savings. Government? Same Same. Or should we say Shame Shame. The only difference between individuals and government, is that individuals must come clean in one lifetime, governments screw up many lifetimes.
Where do we go for more money after depleting retirement savings? More Debt? Who's going to vote for you next time?

If you read anything in this post, read this line first and you'll understand everything above - - - Blah Blah Blah

Sometimes I just write.

RobotGuy.
YGM
R Powell (04/03/02; 10:42:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72626)
Thanks ......(FOA & Another still "MIA" & Missed!)It's very nice to be back among the friendlies....YGM

Missing FOA alot tho! Actually hoped to see some comments by old friend Another by this time. They must both be very busy because any slights given them by obnoxious posters in the past are long forgotten along with the posters who spoke them.....C'mon back gentlemen and share your thoughts again......
Old Yeller
What's up with gold?
Mr Gresham
uponroof, RobotGuy, R Powell
uponroof -- my thoughts exactly! only possible "why" is: because they're already insolvent at certain higher prices, so might as well defend it, play for time, and hope for a miracle. I guess we'll find out some day.

RobotGuy -- that's what I always wonder when I hear those "traders were concerned about blah blah today" -- does anyone actually go around and ask the guys putting in sell orders what they're thinking. No! You know that doesn't happen. No one calls the investors with a daily opinion survey (I don't know why not, if they really wanted to lend credibility to these blatant fabrications.) No, some reporter knows all he has to do is pick something else off the wire and put it together with the market direction and a boilerplate paragraph and get his hourly blah-blah filed. I mean, how wrong am I here?

R Powell -- Methinks our friend GR2 has a little shack in Hadley down 'tween the river and the potato fields, and grows his own favorite 'baccy nearby. Ever do the canoe trip?
Hipplebeck
To all my friends on the forum
It appears to me that there are many wealthy people in the Middle East who are divesting themselves of US stocks and putting their wealth somewhere else. I say this because I want any of you that are in the stock market to think seriously about this. I don't think the market is going up any time soon. I don't know about gold mining companies, but I personally think it is much better to have the physical in hand anyway. I never have understood how someone who wants truth and justice in the markets could play the paper game anyway. The way derivatives work, if everyone just played with paper, it wouldn't matter how much gold was out there. It only has an effect on price if people actually buy the metal. No matter how much a gold mining stock goes up, it is completely irrelavent if someone is not actually buying gold. Think about it, what if all these folks who think they have so much more leverage with gold stocks never bought gold itself. Gold stocks will only hold higher levels if someone is actually buying gold.
Now I am not giving investment advice, because I am not a professional, and it may be that there is quite a bit of selling of stocks because it is almost April 15 and people need the money to pay their taxes like a couple of years ago, but I believe that the USA is on the worlds sh#tlist these days, and in my opinion rightly so. We all know the dollar is overpriced, accounting is a lie, etc. It may be that the Middle East war is giving a lot of people the push they have needed to reevaluate where they are invested.
Just my humble opinion
Siochain
A view of what is happening
Dow Jones Newswire

Tokyo April 3 After breaking through the key $305anounces resistance level overnight in New York, gold could shoot for $325 and then $350m said John H. Mesrobian, president of Virginia based Constantinople Advisors.

"Many hedgers, bullion banks and shorts are exposed to gold breaking above $305. Gold taking out this level will put these bullion banks and hedgers in a panic, for their positions will be under water. In the end these shorts will have to cover and they will cause some spikes along the way", he told Dow Jones newswire in a recent interview.

Mesrobian said Constantinople Advisors, which advises corporate and individual investors on currencies, sovereign bonds, gold and other commodities, has issued a "multiple spike alert" for the gold market.

"Gold could see a $25 to $50 move at any time in these unstable political times. We have problems in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other places," he said.

Mesrobian is also predicting a further rise in oil prices, which could help gold as these two commodities have historically moved in step

"We expect to push through $30 or $32 a barrel based on the current state of the markets and other conditions. We would add that if there is a war or if (Yassaar) Arafat is killed, then oil prices will shoot much higher, even past the $40 mark," he said.

Mesrobian sees a strong appetite for bullion in the Asian region, especially among Japanese investors.

"As the yen continues to weaken you will see the Japanese buying more gold. Watch the Y147.50 area. If the yen breaches this level it will drop a lot more, and then watch the gold market," he said.

"We were told over a year ago by a well known Japanese investor that the Japanese will give up on both the yen and the dollar at some point and start buying more gold. This move will be slow at first and then speed up." Mesrobian said.


Siochain...What we are seeing now is one of those spikes ...though down...as TPTB seek to get above water...gasping...it should be quite a battle for a little longer...though the war has been won IMO...it's just a matter of time and circumstance
RobotGuy
Mr. Gresham - - - Hipplebeck
Thank-you Mr. Gresham, you said exactly what I was trying to say.

Hipplebeck, I do own gold, and my measly purchase of a little more isn't going to inspire the POG, but I do also own gold stocks. What you are saying is very legitimate, and those types of thougts go through my mind every day when I look at my portfolio and think about withdrawing my money and dumping it all into physical gold. There are a few things however in the back of my mind that keep telling me that if and when there is a real run-up, people won't be able to buy physical fast enough. Once everyone who is a long term investor has accumulated the world supply, we must rely on newfound sources ie. mining companies. Most people who purchase gold will look at historical prices and determine when they will sell for a quick buck, and that will cause the market to roll for quite some time, but eventually those who want to keep it for stability will get a hold of it and we're going to have to start looking at mother earth for what's left. That my friend is precisely why I continue to hold stocks in mining companies with little or no obligations or debts, and proven in ground resources,.. even gold exploration companies. Don't get me wrong, a fast buck is very appealing, but I'm starting slowly to get it through my thick head that a fast buck is much harder to find now more than ever. In my opinion the most important thing for the benefit of gold or any PM is that it gets divided into many hands and I think we're seeing that these days alas.
Black Blade
SEC accounting probe broadens
http://www.msnbc.com/news/733409.asp?cp1=1

Investigation of irregularities targets some of largest U.S. firms

Snippit:

April 3 � The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into accounting methods at some of the nation's largest companies, broadening the scope of its inquiry beyond the accounting issues raised by the collapse of Enron Corp. to include a laundry list of other potential accounting abuses.

Black Blade: The "toothless tiger" � the SEC appears to have found some courage and is finally doing its job investigating accounting irregularities. We may see several Enrons come to light.
Black Blade
Options-Expense Bill Meets Opposition
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000023704apr03.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Snippit:


A bill to force companies to treat employee stock options as an expense faces opposition in House and Senate tax committees, and from a countermeasure offered by a Senate committee chairman.

House Ways and Means Chairman William M. Thomas, a Bakersfield Republican who oversees tax legislation, opposes a bill sponsored by Michigan Democrat Sen. Carl Levin and Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain that would force firms to report options as corporate expenses and deduct them from income. So does Thomas' counterpart in the Senate, Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus of Montana.


Black Blade: There are many Senators and Congressmen who oppose ethics and honesty � gee, go figure. Just another sign of the times.

RobotGuy
Saddam - - - Boosts Martyr payments
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20020403_1000.htmlArticle:

NABLUS, West Bank April 3 � Saddam Hussein has increased money for the relatives of suicide bombers from $10,000 to $25,000, drawing sharp criticism from Washington. But Palestinians say the bombers are driven by a priceless thirst for revenge, religious zeal and dreams of glory not greed.

Since Iraq upped its payments last month, 12 suicide bombers have successfully struck inside Israel, including one man who killed 25 Israelis, many of them elderly, as they sat down to a meal at a hotel to celebrate the Jewish holiday of Passover. The families of three suicide bombers said they have recently received payments of $25,000.

The devout Muslims among the bombers, a majority, believe they will go to heaven as martyrs and spend eternity in the company of 72 virgins. In grainy farewell home videos, they often read passages from the Muslim holy book, the Quran, and praise God. Secular attackers know that after the deed, their families will win the adulation of friends, neighbors and strangers.

The other motive seems to be a strong yearning for revenge. Relatives of many of the bombers recall how many of the young men's formative years were spent in Israeli jails. The mother of one bomber said her son once watched Israeli soldiers beating his father.

Mahmoud Safi, leader of a pro-Iraqi Palestinian group, the Arab Liberation Front, acknowledged that the support payments for relatives make it easier for some potential bombers to make up their minds. "Some people stop me on the street, saying if you increase the payment to $50,000 I'll do it immediately," Safi said. He also suggested such remarks were made mostly in jest.

Saddam has said the Palestinians need weapons and money instead of peace proposals and has provided payments throughout a year and a half of Israeli-Palestinian battles. "I saw on Iraqi TV President Saddam saying he will continue supporting the (uprising) even if it means selling his own clothes," said Safi.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Saddam's payments inspire a "culture of political murder."

"Here is an individual who is the head of a country, Iraq, who has proudly, publicly made a decision to go out and actively promote and finance human sacrifice for families that will have their youngsters kill innocent men, women and children," Rumsfeld said Wednesday.

But Saddam is not the only one giving money. Charities from Saudi Arabia and Qatar both U.S. allies pay money to families of Palestinians killed in the fighting, including suicide bombers.

The mother of Jamal Nasser, a 23-year-old architecture student who died trying to ram an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying Jewish settlers, said she received a check for $10,000 from Iraq and another for $5,000 from Saudi Arabia. She said she plans to put the money toward buying an apartment. She wants to move her family from the small place they've been renting for more than 20 years. The money she received is about half the cost of a small apartment in Nablus.

Fifty-five Palestinians have blown themselves up in attacks on Israeli civilians in the past 18 months of fighting.

Under the new Iraqi payscale, decided on March 12 during an Arab conference in Baghdad, the families of gunmen and others who die fighting the Israelis will still receive $10,000, while the relatives of suicide bombers will get $25,000.

Safi and two others from the Arab Liberation Front visit families in the northern West Bank and make the payments. "We go to every family and give them a check," he said. "We tell them that this is a gift from President Saddam and Iraq."

###########################################################

RobotGuy; Well, I think that might be an indication of support for terrorism. I wonder if the payments are upped if the attacks take place in the 'western world'?
Black Blade
Companies reduce hedge positions
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29022173&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

Gold's return as an investment choice has been spurred by the announcements by several large mining companies that they will reduce their hedge positions. Potential investors were pleased to hear that.

Black Blade: It makes no sense to sell forward with interest bearing investments falling flat. Also, the outlook for Gold is quite positive. World events are also positive for Gold and Energy.

Warfare in Palestine is intensifying with reports of fierce gun battles in Jenin and tanks starting to move into Nablus. Today Egypt cut off diplomatic relations with Israel. Sharon and one of his generals were overheard on an open mike discussing how they should assassinate of one of Arafats advisors. There exists the possibility that Israeli tanks may level Christian shrines in Bethlehem to get Palestinian gunmen. This mess is getting out of hand.
Siochain
The Morgans Orchestrate Gold Sell-Off Right On Cue
From the cafe:
The Morgans Orchestrate Gold Sell-Off Right On Cue

The John Brimelow Report:

Indian premiums: AM $1.54, PM $ $1.19, with world gold at $305.10 and $304.90. Below legal import levels.

Today has proven quite a triumph for the predictive qualities of both the gold shares, which sold off ominously yesterday afternoon, and for MarketVane's Bullish Consensus, which finally showed exuberance, jumping last night 3 points to a dangerous 77%. Actually, Tocom gold opened firm and pushed gold up to $307 - 70 cents short of February's high. But once the active contract reached 1300 yen, a popular trading objective, a reaction set in. This was exacerbated by a marked strengthening in the yen, and by the appearance of "US bank selling" (UBS Warburg) which has continued this morning. Volume was 34,200 Comex equivalent, moderate by recent standards, and open interest fell by only 79,600 ozs, which does not suggest a major liquidation is underway.

Short term, Tocom buying is extremely yen sensitive, and a wave of complacency about the currency is on the move. However, a currency experiencing 34% monetary base growth is not going up long.

JB

As John pointed out via the UBS Warburg comment, it was US bank selling that capped the gold rally in Japan. It was as active a gold market in Japan last night as I can recall. Gold was on the move and then The Gold Cartel showed up to do their thing again.

These crooks are most predicable and most irritating. They do get an "A" though for consistency.

Late yesterday I learned that Morgan Stanley went around during the day telling the hedge funds that the gold move was over for the time being. That is what halted the gold share move higher. Today it was JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs taking gold down on the Comex - one big happy family, the New York bullion bankers.

Of note is that Morgan Stanley has been much more visible on Comex in recent weeks compared to year's past. Over those years I have pointed out that Morgan Stanley was one of the silent cabal members. My sources tell me they have been all over the gold and silver action lately, but have here-to-fore been low-key about it.

At this time I think it might be a good idea to point out that the criminals in these firms are only a few in number and they are the very senior people. All of these corporations employ many superb people, a few are even Caf� members - ones interested in the financial truth like the rest of us.

Silver was stopped with gold at critical $4.75 resistance - perfect timing by the market manipulation crew.

Every day the financial news and related commentary gets more gold/silver bullish and more stock market bearish:

New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation.

``With the funds rate at a 40-year low, and one Fed official saying there will be inflation down the road, that suggests the Fed is going to raise rates,'' said George Adell, director of fixed-income research at Philadelphia-based Starboard Capital Markets. He expects the Fed to boost its rate target as much as 1.25 percentage points to 3 percent by the end of the year.
Siochain
Also a comment re yesterday's last hour
From cafe
From savvy Jim Puplava

Bill,
There was unusual activity in the gold share markets today. As the price of oil, natural gas, gold and silver moved up so did share prices. Then during the final hour of trading an unusual pattern developed. Gold and silver bullion prices rose while share prices fell. I watched daily money flows on several key stocks. The big ones first. Then there appeared to be a big sell-off in all the major shares. This seemed unusual in that the metals price was rising. Oil and natural gas, and oil service shares rose along with defense stocks which we own. The only unusual pattern was in the metals shares. They may now become the new target for the cabal. The momentum crowd would not have been selling on a day like this. So somebody(just guessing) triggered the sell-off which got picked up by the radar screens of day traders. Then stocks sold off.

With all of the publicity that gold and silver shares have been getting lately the last thing they want is for John Q. Public to start buying gold and silver mining shares. I own 4 percent of a junior mining company and will take that interest higher in the next week. I know that when the shares hit $1.50 my market maker told me that Charles Schwab sold the shares short. Now those shares are over $2. Today my market maker was telling me Schwab was shorting the stock. This company is owned by very strong hands. All of us who own it are long-term holders of the shares. So I don't know where Schwab is going to get the shares to cover their position. The shares are thinly traded on the Toronto and on the Nasdaq. They are going to get squeezed. The last block I bought was from a hedge fund that had gotten itself in trouble. They were trying to sell the only thing they had that was up which was their mining shares. This is how I'm picking up my next block position.

Anyway I thought I would just mention today's action in the precious metals shares because it was so unusual. It didn't add up. There was no sector rotation taking place that would have caused the momentum crowd to exit their shares. I think the cabal is looking at the precious metals stocks as well. It is tough to explain many of the juniors stocks are up over 100 percent since January. The HUI is up over 47 percent YTD and up close to 100 % over the last 52 weeks. Gold shares were the best performing sector last year and the best performing sector during the first quarter. This should be front page news everyday but it isn't outside CBS's Tom Calandra.

All The Best
Jim Puplava
Sierra Madre
Siochain: about Puplava's view of yesterday's sell-off of gold stocks

I said exactly the same thing yesterday.

After so many years in this, one develops a sort of intuition about these matters. Sometimes it is wrong, of course.

The price of gold - actually, the price of the dollar in gold would be a more correct expression - is in an established up-trend. This is not going to be changed by manipulation. The bullion banks are fighting a rear-guard action, in retreat - the hardest of military exercises, by the way.

"They're on the run, boys!"

Sierra
segel_flieger
Slope collapse at Betze Mine
http://www.newmont.com/inv_relations/newsreleases.htmI read the post here about a week ago concerning the slope collapse at the Betze Mine. What was puzzling about it was the reference to the Deep Post Mine in a context that suggested it belonged to Barrick. I seemed to remember that mine as being owned by Newmont, so I just did a little checking on Newmont's web site. For what it's worth you can read the Newmont side of the story, (link above). At any rate, it doesn't sound as if there is any problem with production at the Deep Post Mine. Sounds like a misunderstanding to me?

Click on "general", then look for the articles;

9/5/2001 Newmont's Deep Post Mine Reopened
8/29/2001 Slope Movement Occurs at Nevada Mine
nickel62
segel_flieger Thanks for your help
I did not realize that the Deep Post deposit was on the Newmont part of the property. Thank you for the information.
USAGOLD
Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.htmlSomething interesting is going on in the overall gold derivatives' positions. The top three U.S. gold bullion banks' positions fell from $73.2 billion in Dec00 to $48.9 billion in Dec01 reflecting the overall reduction in the gold carry trade positions over the course of 2001. John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) says "recent CB efforts, overt and covert, are designed to keep a short-term lid on gold's price, effectively 'holding the door open' for the commercial banks to get positions squared, or get out all together. If one of these major banks was to require rescue by the Fed or the German or UK Central Bank, it would be far more damaging to world economies, and the rescue more costly, than to keep a lid on gold and allow the big commercial banks get out with survivable losses."

Taking a closer look at the Gold Derivatives Table published at the News & Views page (linked above), one can see that most of the reduction has occurred at J.P. Morgan which went from $30.5 billion 12/00 to $7.3 billion 12/01. I find this very interesting. That makes two out of the big three American gold derivatives' players showing a reduction to the $7 billion level.

Is it now Chase's turn in 2002 to move to the $7 billion level?

I think Doody's right. There holding the door open with derivatives in order to exit their carry trade positions or get the losses to a manageable level -- a workout as we have described many times before. And Chase may be the last to squeak through before the gold demand slams it shut.

This is the best evidence available why gold might be ready to explode. It's like holding a spring with your foot -- when you let go you'd better get out of the way.

Everywhere you look in gold's numbers -- derivatives, the LBMA, etc -- the numbers are telling us that the gold carry trade and mine lending are being unwound.

This is one of the most solid indicators I've seen in a long while why the knights and ladies at this Table might take heart - - Nay, not just take heart, but tip their flagons in celebration.

The battle is being carried, the war won.

TownCrier
HEADLINE: Gold hovers near two-month high mark
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020403185945762N243665&set_id=60(Reuters April 04 2002)
London - Gold markets shadowed their strongest level in two months yesterday as Israel widened its assault in the West Bank and traders predicted further price gains.

Gold is just shy of its firmest level in two years, when it touched $309 in spot markets on February 17 2000.

"While tensions remain elevated in the Middle East and the lack of selling continues, gold looks set to make fresh gains," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.
----------

Knowing what technical trade can do to a market once it nudges past long term resistance, you'll want to establish your position in metal. When push comes to shove and liquidity tightness precipitates a whole new ballgame, you will be glad you were proactive rather than reactive.

R.
TownCrier
TRUE ON MANY LEVELS: "You know going in, it takes awhile to change people's habits."
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/03/rtr558670.htmlHEADLINE: US Mint suspends production of dollar coins

By Jonathan Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Only a few years after their introduction, the U.S. Mint has suspended production of "golden" dollar coins for commercial use and said it will evaluate its need to produce them next year.

The move came to light with the recent release of a Treasury Inspector General's report that urged a production halt to save money.

"We are not currently producing circulating golden dollars," Mike White, spokesman for the U.S. Mint, said on Wednesday.

Rep. Michael Castle, the Delaware Republican who sponsored the legislation creating a new dollar coin, said the coin's problems are due to its lack of use commercially.

White also said the coin is finding acceptance for uses such as in vending machines and for urban subway systems, but the Mint knew it had a tough job when it introduced the coin.

"You know going in, it takes awhile to change people's habits," White said.
------------

Widespread public attention in America to such "revolutionary concepts" as prudent gold diversifaction can require a long trip down the runway before taking wing, skyward. It happened in Japan, it will happen here. There's nothing quite like the sinking feeling of being caught out of a good thing to motivate the next wave of buyers. Unlike stocks, new "shares" of gold metal can't be suddenly registered for distribution out of thin air to satisfy investor demand and to further allow the corporation to capitalize on the newfound interest.

Only gold in metal form has the beneficial qualities that have through the long ages been attributed to gold. Think about it...

R.
segel_flieger
Jim Grant - bullish on Gold
On a related note, thanks to the person(s) who recently posted about Louis Rukeyser being canned by WSW/MPT. The show really had become a bit of joke from a journalistic perspective. I must admit though, I did watch it from time to time. But mainly as a substitute for the funny pages. I figured that if the "elves" or whatever they were called should ever turn bearish, it might be a sign that the stock market was finally bottoming.

Anyhow, I tuned in last friday based on the news here that LR had been given the boot. The show was hosted by Marshall Loeb (sp?) and one of the guests was none other that Jim Grant, the king of the "Bond Vigilantes". I don't remember his exact words, but his comments on the markets went something like; "Unlike some people, I don't have much confidence in the central banks. I'm very bullish on Gold, which is much like the opposite of the central banks." I had known long ago that Jim was bullish on Gold, but it was sure nice to see it said on WSW without some security guards appearing on camera to take him away. (Given that LR always went out of his way to ridicule Gold on virtually every show, I'll bet he was enraged by that if he was watching).

In what little "mainstream" press that I follow, I have noticed that Gold has been mentioned more and more lately, and sometimes with a positive tone. My take is that this is NOT a coincidence. It suggests (to me) that a big move in gold is coming and the only question is when? Many people who own(ed) stocks feel betrayed by Wall Street for having been mauled by Mr. Bear when they were told to just close their eyes and hold on. For a megabull market in Gold to appear without ANY warning at all from the GE Capital Channel and the rest of the puppet press would only add to the growing distrust of Wall Street. Just my 0.02/35 oz of gold...
YGM
Black Blade
Your Post....USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72645)
Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html

---Is the best news yet. Proves the rats are abandoning ship. This is the most concrete evidence yet that "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT"...Thanks much...YGM.

YGM
Sorry Michael..
That was a USA Gold Post...But love those BB Posts nontheless :0)
Black Blade
Mk, Siochain,�All

MK � Thank you for that information on the Gold derivatives positions held by these banks. That certainly is a Bullish signal. I haven't checked for a while, though I believe that total derivatives positions for these banks were a staggering $47 Trillion (with JP Morgan Chase holding the lion's share � roughly $29 Trillion). I would wonder if they are trying to extricate themselves from those positions as well. If not, then we would know that they feel extremely vulnerable with these Gold derivatives � an extremely Bullish signal.

Siochain � I think that Jim Puplava may be on to something. After several years of keeping a cap on Gold prices, institutions may be looking for a new means to keep Gold prices under control. Most unhedged miners are held closely so short sales of these mining shares may be short lived, however, the price of larger mega-hedger shares may feel the pain as investors in those shares are not as passionate about Gold as a store of value or as an alternative currency.

Recent large scale selling of US government paper and the sell off on Wall Street can be partly attributed to Japanese institutions and investors selling. There is circumstantial evidence that this cash is being repatriated for propping up domestic markets and paying off debt. For years Japanese investors has kept cash in US based investments as interest rates fell to zero and domestic markets crumbled. Now much of that cash parked in US investments may be coming home. The result is that the withdrawal of this foreign investment and lack of fresh investing from domestic sources has caused the US markets to pull back. Also, a daily listing of earnings warnings, restated earnings, accounting scandals and numerous new SEC probes appear to have cooled the urge to invest.

- Black Blade






R Powell
Assorted thoughts
Even with the down day in both mining stocks and metals' prices, gold still received more bubblevision attention again today- charts included.
Why do I now have the feeling that down days like today are just the normal down days that every bull market contains. I even took advantage of silver's 8 cent decline, a trick I learned from the 1990's, buy the dips!
From today's IBD, open interest numbers
Gold 150,180 +3,200
Silver 78,356 +931
I view increasing open interest in a price rising market as a sign of strength. I expect to see some decline in these numbers tomorrow after today's decline but this is to be expected now and then, no?
Now that the March 27-31 time has passed, I guess we can say Arch Crawford correctly called the SM downturn but I guess we should say his "market meltdown" prediction was a little overstated. Interesting also was commentary today by the CNBC regulars that volume was very light and the market down due to a noticeable lack of buyers rather than excessive selling. This reminds me of similar comments used to describe "market meltdowns", like 1929 when "there were no buyers!" The CNBC analysts were also concerned that they could not identify any sector rotation. There was no noticeable buying anywhere. Stocks, bonds and commodities were all down. Where did the money go?? Something is not right seemed to be the unspoken thought.
Interesting times.
Rich
Black Blade
US natural gas production decline accelerating
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=140117

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Apr. 3 -- US natural gas production is on the decline, and the decline is accelerating rapidly, according to preliminary results of a Raymond James & Associates Inc. first quarter survey of 30 of the largest US natural gas producers. Supply is declining much faster than most analysts expected, Andrews said. US gas production trends generally lag the rig count by 3-6 months, but last year, US gas production began showing declines before drilling activity peaked in July.

Producers were drilling wells that they could bring on production quickly at high flow rates. With activity on these types of prospects now halted, production from high-flow-projects likely will be down by 30-40% this year, he projected. "As a result, sequential production declines should continue to gain momentum as the year progresses, and we continue to believe that US natural gas production could be down by as much as 5-6% this summer on a year-over-year basis," Andrews said.


Black Blade: as I have been reporting here for the last several months. It should also be noted that withdrawal rates have more than doubled over last year's rates. This situation may become more critical as the drought on the east coast and other regions deprives hydroelectric facilities of needed water flows. Also, recent boric acid corrosion in nuclear reactors will require extended maintenance and shutdown. Pending legislation on clean-air proposals and a lack of new carbon credits may restrict coal-fired power production. The higher costs of oil and natural gas will sink straight to the bottom line. In short � scratch one US economic recovery for 2002-2003.
USAGOLD
All. . .Drifting through Internet Channels. . . .
Every once in awhile I go to various bookmarks and see what's happening in the internet world. Tonight's journey revealed USAGOLD posters appearing as quotable items (and in some cases highly visible) at various websites. Here is where the foundational thinking is being done and subsequently quoted elsewhere. This is not intended as a swipe at anyone else. . . long may all the gold web sites live in cyberspace, but it is here where the ground is being broken -- THE LEADERSHIP PROVIDED.

My thanks to all the top-notch who have decided to make this place their place -- the knights and ladies of this Table Round. It does us proud to see so many of you quoted at so many different places nearly every day.

God bless you, all of you.

And let me at the same time invite anyone -- no matter where you post now -- to come here and help us move the cause forward.
You'll find the welcome mat rolled out -- you'll find a place where you'll be read.
Waverider
R Powell: Where did the $$ go?
Here's a thought Rich...apparently the Arabs have approximately $2.4 trillion expatriated dollars. Every day the ME mess escalates and the probability of regional full scale war grows greater, as does justification for a US invasion of Iraq. One could debate the political pros and cons and probability of these issues, but the point is this...fear. And we know fear and confidence drive the markets. Now...if I were an Arab...particularly if I were a scared Arab...scared of what Saddam might do...scared of what the US might do...scared of the implications of regional escalation...would I be leaving my fiat in the USA, or would I be repatriating my money? I know what I'd do...hence no sector rotation today?

Trading volume was about 1.2 billion shares on the DOW, and about 1.7 billion on the Nasdaq...hmmm..light trading they say? Interesting times indeed! Cheers,

Waverider
Black Blade
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

A Crisis of Confidence

Snippit:

There are many famous quotes that describe today's economic and financial environment. Perhaps you have heard of many of them. The obvious one is "Figures lie and liars figure." Winston Churchill once said, "There are a terrible lot of lies going around the world, and the worst of it is half of them are true." There is even a book out by there called, How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff. Unfortunately, we live at a time when numbers, facts, and statistics can no longer be taken at face value, especially today when looking at economic and financial numbers. It doesn't matter whether you are looking at economic or earnings reports coming from corporations and Wall Street analysts. A crisis of confidence or a lack of trust in our government and financial institutions is the number one crisis now facing the financial markets.

Unemployment

Snippit:

Another example of this malarkey is the way the unemployment numbers are reported. Last month the government reported the unemployment rate fell in February from 5.6% in January to 5.5% in February. Those numbers are seasonally adjusted (manipulated). This number surprised the financial markets helping to trigger a rally in stocks as another sign the economy was improving. This lower unemployment report stood in stark contrast to daily headlines of continual job cuts being announced by major corporations. The actual numbers unadjusted portrayed a different picture.


Black Blade: Amen Brother!!! As I have been pounding on these points for some time. Also not that Jim Puplava tackles the obscene options issue that is defended by unethical deceptive politicians such as Sen. Lieberman (D-CT). And the Trolls on CNBC are wondering why trading volume is so light these days. Hmmm...

This is a very good article that nails it! We do definitely live in "Interesting Times".

JA
Call for return of posters of past years
Michael

I rarely post, but have followed this site for years. Over the years there have been a number of posters whose contributions I have greatly valued. Because of such contributors I feel my knowledge and understanding of Gold and how it relates to the financial markets has been enhanced. I am appreciative of their efforts. While you have many great posters at this site currently, a number of the great posters of the past seem to have disappeared. Some days I feel like Black Blade is holding back the villains that would storm the Castle single handedly. He is very capable but your post (#72654) where you throw out an invitation to new knights and Ladies of the Round Table, got me to wondering whatever happened to some of the very strong contributors of past years. Do they no longer visit the site? Did they give up on this ongoing battle over gold? Or are they still around and just tired of posting?

I suggest you call a reunion or do a roll call to see if you can get some of those great posters of the past to give us an accounting of their wellbeing and current thoughts on gold.

I know it is a mistake to try to name them because many valuable contributors will be overlooked. However I will name just a few that come to mind anyway:

ORO
Aristotle
Aragorn III
The Stranger
Steve H
Gandalf the White
Peter Asher
Holtzman
Al Fulchino
And of course FOA or Trail Guide

You might nominate a committee just like they do for high school reunions in an attempt to find those not accounted for.

Just a thought

Waverider
Middle East tension affects markets
http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid=1092045Snippit:
"The Swiss franc has risen, oil prices have strengthened and gold has climbed to its highest level in two months as violence in the Middle East continues.

Clearly, the Swiss franc has risen sharply against the euro and the US dollar in the last few days," said Hans-Peter Hausheer, a senior economist at UBS.

It's part of a historic trend, whereby gold and the Swiss franc are always considered to be safe havens by investors when there are world events that threaten to involve the US or the European Union," he added.

Waverider: Yup...if I lived in the ME I know where I would place my $$$$...
Black Blade
Israel's Military Sweeps Into Nablus
http://www.wn.com/?action=display&article=12838882&template=gas/indexsearch.txt∈dex=recent
Snippit:

BETHLEHEM, West Bank (AP) � Israeli tanks rolled into the West Bank's largest city, Nablus, on Wednesday and other troops laid siege to a refugee camp in Jenin, battling Palestinians who barricaded entrances and fought back with bombs and guns. Soldiers also encircled hundreds of Palestinian gunmen holed up in the church marking Jesus' birthplace.


Black Blade: There are reports of heavy fighting tonight in Nablus and Jenin. However, it appears that the suicide bombings have ceased (for now). Protests against the US outside embassies in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt have erupted into violence. Saddam Hussein has increased payouts to families of suicide bombers from $10,000 to $25,000. Also, Israeli anti-war protesters are in combat with Israeli police and many Israeli reservists are refusing to appear for duty and instead going to Israeli military prison (some have signed a petition protesting the war). This war in the Middle East is likely to spread and get much worse.

Oil Embargo?

Iraq and Iran both have said they may consider an Oil Embargo. That could remove as much as 6.5 million bbl/day from the world market demand of 77 million bbl/day. That is far more than the 1.5 million bbl/day production cuts agreed to by OPEC and Non-OPEC. Even so, Saudi is the only producer capable of increasing production (about 2 to 4 million bbl/day) above pre-agreement levels.


YGM
JA
Your previous Post....JA (04/03/02; 21:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 72657)
Call for return of posters of past years

FWIW... Your suggestion and thoughts are (I am sure) shared by many here. There have been so many profound & articulate posters pass thru these halls it is somewhat sad to not have the sharing of their thoughts. I have learned much here and shared a little, but what great discourse we've been privy to! If I may "I Second" your motion....YGM.
YGM
Speaking of Profound Minds/Discourse....
http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/index.htmlMy apologies for another off topic post but thru the reading of Tom Bearden's correspondence letters one 'May' see the reality of holding some physical Gold in an ever changing and uncertain world........YGM

Footnote: Toms site contains knowledge and information most of the populace will disbelieve or choose to ignore. But be forewarned he can and does have the proofs of his statements by and large. If you said you could send pictures thru the airwaves 60 years ago you would have had few followers. An open mind has always been the key to new knowledge! We all know knowledge is the greatest wealth and weapon for survival.
Black Blade
Gold sets standard in Japan
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020404001562&query=gold
PRECIOUS METALS HOUSEHOLDS ARE STOCKING UP IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC TENSIONS:

Snippit:

Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal. "It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist At JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investment can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

But talk of a "March crisis" saw many Japanese shift their money from bank deposit accounts into gold and other assets. Gold sales were also spurred by the government's decision to lift the guarantee on bank time- deposits of more than Y10m from April 1. Although that deadline has now passed, the guarantee will be lifted from other types of bank accounts in April next year, leaving Japanese savers still fearful for their life savings. The Financial Services Agency's report on its special inspection of the banks' non-performing loans, due out this month, is likely to deepen concern about the banks.


Black Blade: Gold sales should continue to beat last years pace due to the next "April Fools Day Surprise" where deposit guarantees are rescinded for all savings deposits. Considering that there is a lot of cash sitting in insolvent Japanese banks that will seek safety before next April, we could see a lot of physical buying. Imports of Gold should increase steadily as April 2003 approaches.


Black Blade
Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre as a Safe Hedge in Troubled Times
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29040017&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

However, gold has to become more than just an icon of gold bugs, conspiracy theorists and short-term speculators. Instead it needs to broaden its appeal as an asset among mainstream investors anxious to protect themselves in an increasingly uncertain financial and political environment.

Black Blade: It looks like time for a mainstream ad campaign. So where's the WGC now that the POG has made some progress? Hmmm�

Golden Bear
YGM (msg#: 72661) Speaking of Profound Minds/Discourse....
Greetings YGM,

thank you for the link - it is brilliant. I suspect that the theories and practical applications of Tesla and others like Tom Bearden would be kept quiet (if possible) by the powers that be for reasons of weilding power over the masses and for military purposes rather than improving the conditions that everyone on this planet live by.

You are right in stating that this information would not be believed by the average person - how can it be when most academics are ignorant of it and denounce what they fail to comprehend.

Ah, the power of the internet...

Cheers.
Golden Bear
Manipulation of Gold
Hello everyone,

About an hour ago there was a clown from Barclays on CNBC Europe stating that the manipulation of the gold market story has no merit (geez, someone conveniently chose to ignore Reg Howe's evidence and the Judge's conclusions). I only caught the last phrase of the interviewer reiterating the clown's view, but missed the bulk of the argument as put forward by him.

Did anyone catch this?

Interesting that the story is being discussed now after the ruling by the Judge - attempts to discredit the whole case? - another attempt by the cabal to divert the attention of the masses...

Cheers.
Black Blade
China issues first batch of 2002 silver export quotas
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020402001514&query=precious+metals

Snippit:

BEIJING : China issued its first batch of silver export quotas for 2002 totalling 1,260 tonnes, higher than the full amount for 2001 due to a recovery of global prices and weak domestic demand, an industry official said on Monday. China, the second largest producer behind Mexico and a major global exporter of the precious metal, issued three batches of silver quotas last year amounting to 1,180 tonnes, traders said. "This is just the first batch and we expect the government to issue more if world silver prices remain at current bullish levels," said the official.

Black Blade: "Interesting"

Black Blade
Is U.S. ready for chaotic oil markets?
http://www.msnbc.com/news/732411.asp?cp1=1

Reserve provides less import protection than it did in �85

Snippit:

April 2 � As oil prices soar above $27 a barrel for the first time in six months and Saddam Hussein calls on Arab states to use oil as a weapon to punish countries supporting Israel, America's insurance policy against an import cutoff stands at less than half of what it was in 1985. The 560 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are enough to replace about 53 days of imports. Seventeen years ago, the reserve afforded a 118-day cushion. "WE HAVE LOST substantial ground. Our level of import protection has declined dramatically," said Larry Goldstein, a veteran analyst with the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York think tank.


Black Blade: Note that Bill Clinton authorized a draw down of the SPR during the last "Energy Crisis" in a failed bid to secure the presidential election for Al Gore. That oil also has not been returned. As a result the security of the nation was put in jeopardy for the sake of politics. Oil prices current hover around $27.50/bbl and Natural Gas is higher at $3.55 Mbtu.
Canuck
@ Aristotle
We await your words of wisdom Sir.
Spartacus
Central Banking 101 Re-Visited
http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=4631
What matters is the Fed's rationale for the campaign and how it sells that rationale to the markets. By Paul A Mc Culley from Pimco.


Canuck
@ BB
A question for you Sir.

I hold a sizeable chunk of change in an energy trust that literally fell off a cliff yesterday.

Why the sudden reversal yesterday? Oil & gas have made the same sudden spin-around as PM's.

What do you make of this? Are traders looking at a de-escalation in the ME? The non-rebound in the economy? Both? Neither?

This is really confusing.

HELP!!!

TIA
barnacle bill
Reg Howe - Class Action Lawsuit
The judge said Mr. Howe did not have standing, but that others; gold-mining companies and investors do. Personally, I have lost a lot of money on gold options sincethe manipulation began. Does this include you? How hard would it be to file a class action lawsuit? How much would a full page ad in the WSJ cost? Call it the NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD LAWSUIT; or JASON RETURNS-YOU CAN'T KEEP A GOOD LAWSUIT DOWN. I'll bet the WSJ would not print it. They would probably say we didn't have standing.
Spartacus
IMF
Cavan Man
Bethlehem
200 Palestinians hold out in reputed site of Christ's nativity



The bodies of Samaya Moussa Abda (64) and her son Khalid Yakoub Isa Abda (37) were locked as if in a final embrace, sprawled against a bloody sofa on the floor of their little shop in Bethlehem's old quarter. By Peter Beaumont, in Bethlehem and Michael Jansen, in Jerusalem.

The Israeli soldiers who came to their door on Monday had been shouting through the metal door for Samaya and Khalid to open up.

When they refused, the soldiers fired 18 bullets through the door, cutting down Samaya and her son, who had collapsed and died in the gloomy ground floor room.

Yesterday, as a tense stand-off continued in the nearby Manger Square, site of the Church of the Nativity built on the reputed birthplace of Jesus, a few hundred metres from the Abdas' little house Israeli soldiers continued to move through the streets from door to door.

We came across two columns of them, retreating ahead of us in the direction of Manger Square, firing shots into the doors that they had already blasted from their hinges as they went.

On every corner and every block the soldiers had smashed the water pipes and mains, destroyed cars and ripped up electricity cables.

Elsewhere we found other remnants of the continuing fighting: an armoured panel, ripped from an armoured personnel carrier that had run into a wall. Elsewhere, the drifts of spent shell casings from the Israeli soldiers' weapons.

We halted when the Israeli soldiers called to us to come no nearer to the square, where some 200 Palestinian armed militants were holed up in the Church of the Nativity.

Among those trapped inside the church, the Vatican confirmed yesterday, are 40 Franciscan monks and nuns, as well as 30 Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks.

Ms Mary Kelly, a nurse from Baltimore, West Cork, was among a group of volunteers who tried and failed to reach the church to treat 30 wounded. She is a friend of Ms Caoimhe Butterly, also from West Cork, who has been inside Mr Arafat's headquarters since last Friday night.

"I was moved to come out to support the Palestinian people," Ms Kelly asserted. "We are hoping the international community will halt this brutal aggression. Two ambulances have been crushed by Israeli tanks. The Holy Family Hospital is riddled with bullets, which also destroyed the statue of the Virgin on the roof of the church nearby. There are women inside giving birth, and 30 terrified children."

The aim is to get an ambulance manned by a doctor and a medic to the church to treat less serious cases and evacuate those who need hospital care. The Red Cross has not been able to get through.

(Guardian Service)




Black Blade
Re: Canuck - Energy Share Prices and Oil

Why are energy shares falling while oil and natural gas prices are much higher? That's the big question. We just discussed something similar about Gold and Gold shares. I was watching a Brit analyst who asked the same question about oil. No one seems to know the answer. The only possibilities I can think of are 1) profit taking; and 2) more Enronitis. Williams (a pipeline and energy compny) is under investigation by the SEC for questionable accounting. Where have we heard that before?

Another blow to the sector came when an energy trust Eott Energy Partners Ltd. (EOT) declared that they were not going to make a first quarter distribution. Other than that Euro regulators declared that they have assurances from OPEC that the trading range for oil will remain between $25 and $28. Meanwhile Oil holds at about $27.50, and natural gas is higher by 5 cents at $3.55 Mbtu.

The outlook for energy is that we will have higher prices so this general trend may be temporary. At the same time the situation continues to deteriorate. The press got ahold of unflattering pictures of Israeli police and military beating peace demonstrators. Througot the Middle East there are Arab demonstrations around US embassies. It would not take much for outside terrorists to do something while attention is diverted. We definitely live in "Interesting Times". Cheers!

- Black Blade
Canuck
I more I read and listen the more I am confused
You know, after the statement out of Hussein yesterday ( first, admission of paying suicide bombers and second, increasing pay from 10k to 25k) I cannot find any reasonable explaination why a flurry of bombs haven't leveled Iraq yet.

What is Arafat's condition? Every stinking news channel was riveted on him all Easter week-end telling us of each of his urinations and now nothing. I understand they (media) has been booted out but what is going on?

Israel has taken over, 100's on tanks mobilized in every town, Hussein waving MORE terrorist money around, admission that he is behind all this and GOLD, OIL & GAS falls off a cliff?

Why is this so MUCKED UP?
SteveH
JA
Present.

SteveH

ps. Thanks
Canuck
@ BB
I appreciate your message but I think (fear) we are missing
something. I went thru approximately 20 PM stocks, half-a-dozen energy trusts and another dozen O&G majors, they ALL simultaneously fell off a cliff at (more or less) the same time, an extreme, sudden, unexplainable reversal.

They can't all be accounting crooks, I appreciate that possibly they got painted with the same brush. Please notice that after Comex/Nymex closed on Tuesday (gold rising to approx. 305) the sell-off started between 2 and 3pm. The traders were telling us something (markets always lead, yes) and sure enough POG and shares dived yesterday.

Do you find it odd that the Nikkei is rising? Most markets are struggling post-Apr. 1 but the Nikkei is rising, why? Has the Japan crisis thing been glossed over?

Israel has taken over, the bombers have stopped. Is the ME situation de-escalating? In the eyes of the traders it sure is. Are they correct? This will determine short-term trading, will it not?

I mentioned a key statement from the Arab summit the other day. The Arabs said, "...an attack of Iraq is an attack of ALL the Arab world." Has the imminent attack of Iraq been traded off for Israel's peace?

A couple weeks ago a very long article in the Globe and Mail suggested that a deal was being struck under the table for Hussein and Sharron's 'head-in-a-basket'.

I believe the opposite may be occuring now. Iraq's peace has been traded for Israel's (temporary?) This, in my very humble opinion, will be confirmed by the non-attack of Iraq even after Husseins blatant terrorist statements yesterday.
After all, the US was warned, in no uncertain terms as a result of the summit. This is why the US is 'doing nothing'.

Thoughts.

Canuck.
Black Blade
Canuck

It could be that the markets were spooked with all the accounting scandals hitting energy and energy related companies from Enron to Williams. With the current situation in the Middle East, who knows what will happen. As far as the Nikkei, there is some evidence that Japanee are calling cash home to Papa. In other words, other markets are suffering due to lack of investment and Japanese calling home cash from foriegn investments. Anyway, that is the speculation from some people. Today looks like it could be another wild ride on Wall Street as no one has a clear feel for the market. Who knows - could be fun. I have no fear though as I have made my preparations (have PMs and still in positive territory in my investments) and now it is all a game. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Canuck

It may be possible that much of that repatrioted cash is finding its way into the Nikkei. Oh yeah, I should point out that the Japanese government pension fund has been propping up the Nikkei as well with strong buying on occasion.
RobotGuy
My Fellow Canuck
IMO I think you hit the nail on the head when you said "profit taking." It would seem to me that after all these years of people slamming precious metals as a reliable investment, people who are easily influenced will tend to listen closely and of course follow like lemmings. If someone who has never supported the idea of investing in the realm of precious metals is suddenly impressioned to do so they might be rather nervous once climbing aboard, and they will probably likely be the ones who jump overboard as soon as there's a mild swell. I think we might see this for awhile, as there are a lot of people including many of my close friends who are still very comfortable bashing precious metals. I told a few of my very good friends a year and a half ago to take all of their investments out of techs and put them into gold and they all laughed at me. Today many of them are angry at me, or so it seems, cause they didn't listen to me. I have another close friend who is just completing a university course that will enable him to be a market analyst or 'cheerleader' as I prefer to call them. I had a good long discussion with him over the subject of precious metals being a wise long term investment in light of recent and past events including but not least the suppression of gold and silver. My good fiend has been taken by the masses of mainstream education and will have nothing to do with it, even though I proved to him over the course of the last year that precious metals funds have had superior gains over any other funds. "It's merely a fluke!" he would say, precious metals funds have been losers for many years and they will be in the future. My mother is also quite involved in the investment world, and she told me a year ago not to put my money in gold, that it was too risky. I proved her wrong, but she will never admit that I was right.

My point is, is that there are a great many doubting Thomas' out there, and for good reason, they've just been burned bad by every other market. I think many will jump at small profits in the beginning, but when they see that this market is going to be the new(old) market for security and that it isn't going to fail we will see a neverending gradual incline for our PMs.

I hear people talking about investing their money in something tangeable like houses, cars, anything that might have some significant value, but let's not forget over the long run houses get run down, cars rust, and cd's may soon be a thing of the past. We all know that once all the known PM resources are exhausted, they won't be making any more. I have always considered precious metals an excellent long term store of wealth.


But after all, I'm just a RobotGuy.
Truthcaster
Trouble brewing for J.P. Morgan and more.
Hi All-
I was reading on Bloomberg were there is a law suit
against J.P. Morgan chase on the enron collapse. And I
see that the jobless rate is up again, if in fact it ever
went down. Hope to see a pop in gold's today I wonder if
300 mark will hold thru the rest of the week? I guess will
wait and see. Have a good one.... Truthcaster
RobotGuy
Black Blade - - - Did you already post this one??
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B518277B7%2D56DD%2D4DDE%2D822E%2D84BA56240D63%7D&siteid=mktwsnippet:


First-time requests for state unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped 64,000 to 460,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists looked for jobless claims at a level of 377,000.

A Labor official said the unexpected surge was due to re-applications for extended benefits from already out-of-work individuals who haven't yet been hired again.

After recently signed legislation extending benefits, workers whose benefits had already expired are now able to receive funds for another 13 weeks if they signed up after March 15.

The four-week moving average, which irons out weekly fluctuations, stood at 403,750, up from 384,000.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
(More to article)

RobotGuy - - - Surprise numbers, go figure. You mean we weren't able to predict everything like we thought we could?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html


They make new BULLION every day.

They stopped making these BEAUTIES long ago.

A fixed supply has its advantages.

Call USAGOLD / Centennial to discuss the investment strategy that's right for you.

Old Yeller
Stephen Roach on the US C/A deficit
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020404-thu.html#anchor0
Adjustment coming,not a matter of if,just when.

He feels it's going to be a "hard landing",too.Due to the scale of the problem and the total lack of focus on the implications,I would agree.
Hipplebeck
Canuck
It is my personal opinion that the price of gold is still tightly connected with the perception of inflation. The price does rise a little when something happens like the WTC or a flare-up in the Mid East, but not nearly as much as you would expect. Everytime they feel like the economy is coming back strong, they fear inflation is coming with it. When it feels like Uh-Oh we are maybe not coming out of this downturn yet, the price of gold goes down. I have said this before here, gold will not really take off until there is a real fear of inflation, then watch out.
JCTex
Hipplebeck (4/4/02; 08:05:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72686)
My personal opinion is that it doesn't matter what anybody thinks about much of anything.

The bought-media tells us what to think, and the government "statisticians" feed us what all mushrooms need.

As long as paper prices physical, the only opinions that count are the cabal's opinions.
Truthcaster
Gold just above 300
Gold is still under pressure this morning and is holding
just above the 300 level at 300.50 dwn $3 It looks to me that we may visit the 290's again good time to buy more
I guess. Crude oil is up at open 39 cents a barrel to $28.
and today at the pump here in the midwest for the cheap
gas, 1.50 a gal. ouch.. Truthcaster
sector
Japan Telco NTT...Hammered for $15.9 Billion...More "Good News" from a Moribund Economy
NTT warns of record loss after $15.9bn charge
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: April 4 2002 14:28 | Last Updated: April 4 2002 14:36

NTT, Japan's dominant telecommunications group, on Thursday revealed the extent of the damage incurred from its overseas foray. It warned that its net loss would be more than double previous forecasts due to an extraordinary charge of Y2,095bn ($15.9bn), the largest ever by a non-financial Japanese company.

The charge reflects write-downs on overseas investments by its international and mobile subsidiaries and restructuring costs needed to cut excess personnel at its two domestic operating companies.

NTT said its net loss for the year would surge to Y865bn, from the Y331bn originally forecast, although sales and recurring profit forecasts remained the same at Y11,812bn and Y665bn respectively.

But analysts and investors put a positive spin on the revised outlook, saying it cleared the way for a profit rebound.

"True, this is a huge pool of red ink. But getting the write-downs out in the open wipes the slate clean," said Fumiaki Sato, of CDIC IXIS Asset Management. "The bad news is out there and the market can now refocus on prospects for the core businesses."

Of the extraordinary losses, Y1,403bn stems from overseas investments made by NTT DoCoMo, its mobile arm that went on a Y1,800bn buying spree at the peak of the telecoms bubble, and NTT Communications, its long-distance and international subsidiary.

An additional Y692bn charge reflects restructuring costs at NTT East and West.

DoCoMowrote down Y616bn to reflect the decline in value of its investment in AT&T Wireless, Hutchison 3G UK and KG Telecom in Taiwan. This followed a charge of Y300.8bn related to its investment in KPN Mobile in the first half, bringingDoCoMo's total write-downs of overseas investments to more than half the Y1,800bn it has spent expanding outside its home turf.

As a result of the additional charges, DoCoMo will report its first ever loss of Y36bn at the net level.

NTT said its directors would not receive a bonus for the first time, with the president and chairmantaking pay cuts of 20 per cent, the vice-president 15 per cent, and 10 per cent for other directors.

NTT Communications, which has already taken a Y4,980 charge against the decline in value of its investment in Verio, the US web-hosting company, will book a further Y40bn impairment loss against Verio, and Y52bn against its investment in PLDT in the Philippines and others.

The charges allow NTT to deal with the value of its investments in one swoop and concentrate on tackling the increasingly difficult domestic market.

The group faces severe pressure in practically all areas of its business as competition has intensified amid Japan's deflationary market environment.

At the same time NTT faces renewed pressure from the US, which on Thursday published a report calling on Japan and the EU European Union to lower mobile phone interconnection rates and provide "reasonable" prices.

However, Keiji Tachikawa, DoCoMo president and chief executive, on Thursday disputed the US claims: "Access charges in Japan are lower than in Europe. Japan's [charging] system is different from the one in the US, so a comparison can't be made."
+++++++++++++++++++++
This should only add to the gloom and loss of confidence of the Japanese savers...pushing them towards gold.
TownCrier
INSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS: 'Bush's muddled approach to Mideast does nothing'
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020402.htmlLatest Jensen (excerpt):

Never has President Bush seemed more impotent -- or muddled -- than he does as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians moves from mayhem to madness.

While other world leaders demand that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon halt his military offensive in Palestinian cities, Bush demands that Yasser Arafat "stop the violence" -- even while Israeli troops are shooting his policemen.

Arafat, in fact, has repeatedly condemned suicide bombings, but this has not stopped them. The 18-year-old schoolgirl who blew herself up outside a Jerusalem supermarket did not have Arafat's OK; actually, she defied his orders not to harm Israeli civilians.

Such distinctions are lost on Sharon, who blames Arafat for everything: He is the architect of a "terrorist infrastructure," an "enemy of Israel and the free world in general," and a danger to the Middle East. Bush apparently agrees, while his State Department does not.

Asked if the storming of Arafat's office was justified, the president replied: "Israel is a democratically elected government and the government is responding to the will of the people for there to be more security. Israel will make the decisions necessary to defend herself."

The State Department [...] is "greatly concerned about civilian casualties" and has asked Israel to "carefully consider the consequences" of its military actions.

...Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security adviser to President Carter, in an interview with CNN: "I can see two major jeopardies ahead if we don't step into the breach. If the tragedy between Israelis and Palestinians degenerates into total violence, if Arafat is killed, we'll probably see major uncertainty, major instability in the Middle East. We'll become more isolated in the war on terrorism because the Arabs will unite against us. And we could even get an oil embargo with the Saudis, the Iraqis and Iranians joining forces despite their disagreements. That's a very, very ominous scenario."

----(click link for full article)-----

A diversification into gold makes sense. Gold represents real wealth during good times, and during bad times it represents portable protection from financial collapse resulting from lost confidence and from couterparty default.

R.
Mr Gresham
RobotGuy: Pearls Before...
It makes you wonder just who to tell anything to, doesn't it? And wish you hadn't...
Mr Gresham
Here's the rub...
IMO, the birth of Israel, in our lifetimes (or at least mine), was all about the right of a people to survive attempts at extermination, and to have a safe homeland. It was about burying Hitler's ghost with a big final "Nyahh nyahh, you LOST, sucker!"

Now, obviously Israel, the actually-existing nation of today, doesn't believe it has to live up to my ideals, or anyone else's outside its own borders. It gets to play like any other nation, using what it has to get what it wants. Fair enough. But that threatens to erode the special sympathies that I and many others hold for it, which it doesn't count as worth very much at all.

It really is the conflict between the ideal and the realpolitik, written in a stark contrast for our noses-pushed-into-it viewing.
RobotGuy
Nice to see the old Canuck buck heading for the hills again - - - NOT!! I'm getting really tired of this dollar, I wonder if my employer will pay me in gold?
Belgian
Decoding the speech ....
POG (307$ >> 301$) was the only one in the knew of this speech and its content. Enough is Enough...!?
To Europ : Shut up and leave us alone. Don't interfere with Arafat support. Only Germany (+ Russia) is "with us "...ask Welteke...and remember their holocost past !
Emphasis on the Palestine support(ers) on the adress of Iraq/Syria.
Blair meets Bush this weekend and will co-decide on the Powell C.(not Rich) message to the ME. Hypocritical US/Saudi friendship was also in the message. The word "viable" disappeared out of the mentioning of Palestinian state.
27$ + for POO HURTS ! Arafat is most probably out ! My guess is the (wanted) escalation as a result. But for the time baing, the speech has temporary avoided POG to break its 308$/310$ barrier ! Thanks.
RobotGuy
North Korea - - - Strong Words
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=F1ARAMXCAU3XECRBAEKSFEYKEEARMIWD?type=topnews&StoryID=774243SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Thursday that the United States was its "most wicked sworn enemy" in a series of diatribes issued less than 24 hours after Pyongyang dropped hints it might restart frozen dialogue with Washington.

"The U.S. is the most wicked sworn enemy of the Korean nation as it is not only hindering inter-Korean exchange and cooperation ... but also putting a stumbling block in the way of achieving Korea's reunification," the state media quoted the North's Asia-Pacific Peace Committee as saying.

A separate KCNA report quoted a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman as demanding Washington pay compensation for what it said was a U.S. failure to uphold a key deal which froze Pyongyang's suspected nuclear weapons program.

Yet another statement, in the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, demanded the withdrawal of U.S. troops in South Korea, saying "it is imperative to put an end to the presence in South Korea by the U.S. imperialist aggression troops."

In what was taken in Washington as a possible sign North Korea was willing to talk, late on Wednesday, KCNA quoted a Foreign Ministry official as saying Pyongyang would re-engage with an international consortium at the heart of the crucial nuclear agreement with the United States.


__________________________________________________________________________________


RobotGuy; North Korea surprised me when it was implied they were considering talks again, but then they've just done a seemingly 180 and surprised me again. Might as well throw Canada in with the U.S. too, cause we seem to have an affinity with each other, and Cretien seems to be quite willing to assist wherever assistance is required. North Korea, Iraq, surprising news headlines in roughly the same 24hrs, hmmmm.
TownCrier
Jensen update shows the face of terrorism worn by many, for "good" and "bad"
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020404.htmlHEADLINE: 'Israelis, Palestinians both have blood on their hands'

(excerpts)

Fifty-seven Islamic nations ended a three-day conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, by condemning terrorism "in all its forms" but failing to define it.

Arab delegates unanimously rejected "any attempt to link terrorism to the struggle of the Palestinian people in the exercise of their inalienable right to establish an independent state."

It all boils down to that age-old question of who is a terrorist and who is a freedom fighter. Some of today's nations were, in fact, born of terrorism and some terrorists of yore are now respected statesmen and Nobelists.

Terrorism freed the southern Irish Republic from British rule and has forced Britain to relax its hold on Northern Ireland. Much of colonial Africa and parts of Asia were liberated by terrorist wars. Israel had its terrorists and the Palestinians, too.

Menachem Begin blew up the King David Hotel to drive the British out of Palestine. The Irgun and Stern Gang terrorized Palestinians before the creation of the state of Israel. And Yasser Arafat has employed terror against the Jewish state.

Yet Begin won the Nobel Peace Prize for signing the Camp David accord, as did Arafat and two other Israeli leaders for signing the Oslo accord. And the ANC's Nelson Mandela, who spent most of his life imprisoned as a terrorist, is not only a Nobel laureate but hailed around the world as one of its premier peacemakers.

That's why the United Nations, which has spent years grappling to define terrorism, has never managed to do so. And that's why President Bush has been forced to admit that he cannot brand Arafat a terrorist simply on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's say-so.

While Sharon compares Arafat to Osama bin Laden "that's not a comparison the president accepts," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, noting that Arafat participated in peace talks before they broke down and, for better or worse, remains a symbol of Palestinian aspirations.

Lev Grinberg, a sociology professor at Ben Gurion University who frequently writes for the daily Maariv, says the United States is "evil" for supporting Sharon, whom he considers as bad a terrorist as the suicide bombers he is after. "The state terror and war crimes perpetrated by the Israeli government are legitimized as 'self-defense' while Arafat, even under siege, is demanded to arrest 'terrorists.'

"At the same time, Sharon's responsibility for Israeli war crimes is completely ignored. Who should be arrested for the targeted killing of almost 100 Palestinians? Who should be sent to jail for the killing of more than 120 Palestinian paramedics? Who will be sentenced for killing more than 1,200 Palestinians and the collective punishment of more than 3 million civilians during the last 18 months?

"And who will face the international criminal tribunal for the illegal settlement of occupied Palestinian lands and disobeying U.N. resolutions for more than 35 years?"

Sharon and Arafat both have blood on their hands. Perhaps the European Union's Javier Solana was right in pointing out that "neither is a saint" and both sides would be better off with new leaders.

----(more at link above)-----

In a tumultuous world beyond your personal control, it makes good sense to own some gold. Gold is wealth itself, while the value of paper depends on counterparties who tend to fail or simply step away from financial obligations when chaos permits.

R.
Galearis
@Black Blade and all: Ted Butler on Ag exports by China
http://216.234.182.183/members/eagleranch/#os-2While the market may face a rough patch in the near term, due to the lopsided and negative (and manipulative) COT position in gold, silver and copper, the fundamentals in silver are something else. There have been multiple posts recently, on every metal site around, about how much silver Red China is exporting. Not only are these stories pure c()ap and unsubstantiated, they are obviously being leaked out for an entirely diffrent purpose - to help Red China buy silver on the cheap. Here, you're going to have to use some common sense. The numbers being thrown out go like this - China produces around 60 million ounces per year, and is exporting around 40 million oz. That implies a net consumption of 20 million ounces a year.

The US (the world's largest consumer of silver, and every other commodity) consumes around 250 million ounces a year, on a population of 280 million. Let's call that an ounce per head. China has a population of some 1.3 billion, and consumes just 20 million ounces? Huh? Does that make sense to you? While I know China is not consuming an ounce per person, it is consuming a hell of a lot more than 20 million ounces. After all, its economic growth has been blistering for years, compared to the US and the rest of the world. It is Kodak's second largest market currently, and that company says it will be its number one in the not too distant future. Additionally, China is said to be the world's second largest consumer of copper. It is not possible for them to consume the small amounts of silver implied in the planted stories. I don't deny that China is refining and smelting more waste recycling silver, with the waste imported and the refined silver being exported. Obviously, the folks sending the waste to China for refining, demand the finished product in return. That's because of China's willingness to tolerate environmental damage not acceptable elsewhere in the world. But its willingness to be the toxic processor of last resort, does not make them a big net exporter.

Red China treats its commodity statistics as state secrets. It only tells you what it wants you to think. It wants you to think it has plenty of silver. Common sense should tell you with a mine production of only 60 million ounces a year, a population of 1.3 billion, and a goal and trend for its people to enter the modern world, China, of all countries on the face of the earth, faces a silver need and crunch more desperate than can be imagined. These stories are intended to make it easier for them to buy silver. Don't be fooled by their lies - use your common sense.
**********

As usual, well said.

G.
Belgian
@ Old Yeller
Sir, your Morgan Stanley article on CA-deficit, learns us that the politico/financial collusion, chooses the most appropiate moment for the final inevitable corrections !
Stockmarket / Gold / Interest rates, are managed against the clock, ticking economic realities. Adjustments or better "crashes" up or down just wait for their approval signal ! Than the markets get a fresh bout of freedom...alas for temporary adjustments. The dollar (down) and interest rates (up) are still defying gravity. And there are so many dollar-holders out there ! The main reason why long awaited approval for adjustment stays away is the monstrous "Derivative" positions that builded the mega anomaly in the first place. It was not assurance but speculation with a purpose of blowing things up out of proportion. etc...etc... Thanks for bringing it up.
RobotGuy
Forum Grey Matter
I thought of something just now. We often speculate in this forum on the causes of the immediate past; why did ths happen; why did that happen etc. The fluctuations in precious metals are often followed by a flurry of hypothesis, and sometimes cold hard facts.
Key word, followed.
Why is it that we do not combine our many talents and hypothesize the immediate future? Is it because we're all under the understanding that precious metals are rising in value and there are no two which ways about it.
I think this recent subtle drop in gold could have been determined had we stuck our heads together and speculated what the immediate future might hold. Sure, there are always random functions, but for the most part we all have a general consensus of what is happening, and what is likely to happen in the near future.

For example, last weekend I was thinking to myself gold will probably go down this week, without thinking too hard of the reasons why it might. If I were sure about myself, I could have stood to make a little money. I am also thinking that gold may continue to drop a little over the course of the next several hours, but will probably go back up on Friday, closing above 305. Now here's the clincher, I'm not certain, that's just my gut feeling.

Would anyone care to join me in my speculation of the near immediate future of market conditions?

If I were to provide reason for my speculation it would probably be another page of blah blah blah, so I'll stop here for now.


RobotGuy.
YGM
Quite Interesting site...
http://www.reformation.org/rome_robs_fort_knox.htmlLinks

West Point Gold Reserves belong to German Bundersbank.

Freemarket Gold and Money Report

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Gold-Eagle.com

Gold.org

Link to the Mexican-American War of 1848

Gold rush Museum in Oakland, California

Sir Francis Drake's voyage to North America

Diary of Drake's voyage from a Roman Catholic college

Thanks to all the Australians that visit

Gold Discovery in Australia

Vatican ship sinks

Vatican bank has Nazi gold!!

Vatican Revealed As Major Dealer in Gold!!

Vatican Bank Top 10 Money Laundering Destinations!!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Editor's Notes

Before the fall of the Papal States, the stolen gold was brought directly to the Vatican and stored in huge deep underground vaults. That is not possible now because the Italian customs would see the gold and the Italian government would keep it. For that reason they cannot ship directly but must use Swiss and German vaults to store the loot. Maybe it is wishful thinking on the part of the U.S. Treasure but they have re-classified all the U.S. gold as "deep storage gold."

Before the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Vatican feared a Soviet invasion of Western Europe and did not want to accumulate a lot of gold there. However, within the past 7 years, the flow of gold out of the U.S. and into Swiss and German banks has been enormous.

After South Africa, Russia is the second largest producer of gold in the world. By keeping the price of gold artificially low, Russia is deprived of millions in revenue that could be used to resist a NATO invasion.

According to the Bible, gold is so plentiful in Heaven that they use it to pave the streets and the Popes cannot steal any of it:

Pizz
Volitility, Momentum, Market Makers, and Big Players, or Why You Shouldn't Play Paper
The game is so rigged against the average "Joe", that even if he can keep his sanity, he will lose his money surer than in a casino with the overall odds for the house. I'll try to explain as best I can.

Let's take a nice little PM stock trading for 10.00, but with a market maker(MM) trying to establish a long term position in the stock. Fundamentals are good for PM's and the market maker estimates the stock can (will if he's good) go to up over a three month period.

The MM establishes a "floor" for the stock with say a bid of 100,000 shares @ 9.50. These bid/ask prices are transparent to anyone with the right software (Level II Nasdaq for example).

Now, once a few traders realize that some big player hasn't stepped in and sold into the bid (a real risk for the MM or any player placing large limit orders), they start bidding the stock up and in effect taking all the limit sell orders over 10.00. All the while the MM uses his short term trading account keeping bids just below the market, capturing stock from the "market sell orders".

If a MM or big player keeps substantial bids right below the market price, the stock goes up with the MM accumulating shares. He also more than likely moves his "floor" bid up as a trailing buy to help protect the price of his trading account. Don't want a large trader who is playing the opposite game (short sellers) to be able to take the price down too far with a sell of 50,000 shares or so that would put the MM's trading account under water.

Complicated enough yet???

Now lets say the MM gets the stock up to 15.00 or so without attracting a big short player, who is someone who thinks or knows he has the resources to play the same game as the market maker, but on the downside with short positions. It's now time for him to take some profits or basically unload some of his stock. Now he puts in a block sell order in above the current price, and the whole thing starts over but on the downside. The MM can usually control the price on the way down so as to put a big bid back in at key technical levels - say fibbanchi numbers (smile)??? and then work the price back up.

Throw in day traders, short sellers, funds, option writers, into the mix, all with their own views on where the markets and stocks are going, all with different resources, most all with computers programmed with trading strategies, and you may just start to see why markets are volitile.

All the big players "war" with each other for their share of the invester's money, and each others. The above example is played out by some in seconds with spreads in the pennies, by others in minutes with spreads in the tenths, by others in hours with half point spreads, etc.

Now, big traders and MMs will also place big bids in and then pull them almost instantainously just to fool the other traders and try to trigger computer programs that they are positioned to profit from. Others have computer programs that place bids into the market at one price, but actually show another price on the level II screens in order to make their bids invisible.

Still want to trade paper????? Do you really think you know just when or where the MM is going to place his floor bid. Or how about a fund that has written a block of calls on your rising stock as they unload their positions and force the price down or cap the rise while there is good news. Sound familiar???

It's only about 100 times more complicated than my feeble example and explanation above.

Playing paper or buying physical??? Which makes more sense?

There's a storm on the horizon. Want to live in a paper house or a PM house. (Ah, hell, go play paper if you want, the big boys are having to fight it out amongst themselves right now and they'd love to have you toss your few bucks into THEIR GAME.)

Pizz

darkhorse
@Pizz
You're a breath of fresh air...it's nice to know there are some people that know the "numbers" game and aren't one of the bad guys. Even a financial idiot like me can understand enough from your post to know which side us rookies need to stay on. Thanx for all your insight.
RobotGuy
Well, to my pleasant surprise gold managed to pop it's head above 300 for the comex close!
Hipplebeck
Possible?
Mining company sells forward to Bullion Bank, Bullion Bank swaps forward contracts for vault gold and sells. Voila! Deep Storage Gold
RobotGuy
Pizz, I know exactly what you're talking about.
I do the same thing with smaller valued stocks. You need to have a good reserve to keep feeding the market to stimulate upward buying, not to mention it's all so helpful when the POG fluctuates, and everyone get's excited. Gold price fluctuations are the mechanism by which the overall expanding floor is advanced and strengthened. Sure, I'm not a billionaire, if I were I wouldn't bother with anything paper related, but even a rookie like myself can earn far greater returns than that percentage the bank pays on a savings account. I take losses, but generally overall my capital manages to continue growing.

Why not put it all into gold? This is my gambling money :)


Thank you for your post.

RobotGuy.
Hipplebeck
rising floor
$252
$272
$292
$302
Pizz
@Darkhorse
Learned the hard way. My wife's Barbi doll collection has a better track record than my option trading over the past 10 years.

She's getting ready to sell a few dolls now and buy gold. Haven't figured out if it's because of me or just the fact that she's run out of space in her doll room. At least she's pointed in the right direction.

Pizz
miner49er
Pizz @ 72703
Nice follow-the-bouncing-ball example...!

I already sent your post to a couple of guys here to help illustrate the travesty that goes on in the name of "reasoned and deliberated investment."

Good point, that these guys may intentionally reverse at key TA levels. Lots of technical players provide a nice solid wall to bounce off. This also serves to fool people into thinking that these kinds of analysis are as magical as they are made out to be -- which then reinforces the process, so that they have predictable fodder to work with the next time they cycle through... what a gas...?!

cheers,
miner
Strad Master
Question for Town Crier
RE: Posting # 77698In following the URL link to the Centennial Precious Metals page you included with your recent post one finds at the top the following: "While we find Mr. Jensen's columns particularly informative with respect to foreign affairs, his opinions do not necessarily represent those of Centennial Precious Metals, USAGOLD, its management and clientele." If that is true, why do you bother posting Mr. Jensen's one-sided opinion piece at all? At best, it is laden with half-truths. At worst, it is morally confused claptrap. I've discussed the Middle East situation on mumerous ocassions with MK so I know that he doesn't subscribe to the ideas of moral equivalence that Jensen espouses. It seems to me that, while you are entitled to share Jensen's misguided opinions, it certainly does no good for CPM to post inflammatory opinion pieces on official CPM pages as if they were truly "informative with respect to foreign affairs."
JCTex
TownCrier/Terrorists
Not sure why I am even bothering to reply.

"...It all boils down to that age-old question of who is a terrorist and who is a freedom fighter..." sounds like b.s. to me.

What difference who, why, or what awards; if you knowingly kill innocents, including women and children, that sounds like murder to me. Mass murder is a qualifier for how many.

Years ago, I was personal friends with a mass murderer. They shot him like a mad dog for his rampage. He died on the University of Texas Tower, and never got to win any those awards.

Charley was a mass murderer, and they killed him right where he was. They did the right thing.
sector
The Coming "Adjustment" to the Current Account Deficit...Morgan Stanley's Roach
The Word "Adjustment" is a Euphamism for "Devaluation"Apr 04, 2002
Winds of Change Finally Blowing

On Current-Account Adjustments
Stephen Roach (New York)

Hints of America's coming current-account adjustment are already in the air. As Joe Quinlan noted in yesterday's Forum, just-released data on foreign capital inflows into the US for early 2002 point to a significant shift in the sources of external financing. In January, portfolio inflows into dollar-denominated assets slowed to just $11.3 billion, a marked deceleration from average monthly flows of $44 recorded during 2001. If this trend remains even remotely intact, I believe America's ability to finance its massive external deficit will become severely impaired. And then the US current-account adjustment will begin in earnest.

What might such an adjustment entail? That's a question I get a lot these days as I pound the table on what I believe is the key macro tension point for the US economy. Fortunately, there are important lessons from history that may shed some light on what the future holds for America as it faces up to the coming external adjustment. A recent research paper by a Fed economist provides some compelling evidence of potential responses as drawn from the experiences of some 25 current-account adjustments that occurred among industrialized countries over the 1980-97 period (see Caroline L. Freund, "Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries," Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion paper #692, December 2000, available at www.federalreserve.gov). While this history offers no guarantees of what lies ahead for the United States, there are some important lessons that I do not believe should be taken lightly.

First of all, the Fed study finds that the median current-account (CA) adjustment of these 25 episodes occurs when the external gap hits about 5% of nominal GDP. It then takes about three years, on average, for the adjustment process to run its course. Even after those three years, the median CA is still in deficit to the tune of about 1% of GDP. There is considerable variability within this sample as to which CA deficit threshold triggers the adjustment. The last time it occurred in the United States was in 1987, when the CA gap was 3.7% of GDP; three years later it had shrunk by 56% to 1.6%. There are, of course, many episodes of CA adjustments that predate the 1980 time frame. But the sample in the Fed study was restricted to that period largely because it had two key characteristics in common with current international financial conditions -- broadly based financial capital mobility and flexible exchange rates.

It's the dynamics of the CA adjustment process as revealed in this Fed study that I find most fascinating and pertinent for the economic outlook. (Note: The results reported below are for the median CA adjustment over the 25 episodes contained in the 1980-97 sample period). First, the adjusting country typically experienced depreciation in its real effective exchange rate of about 20%; in only two of the 25 instances did the exchange rate appreciate -- Canada in 1981 and Denmark in 1988. But they were the obvious exceptions. Typically, the devaluation began about a year before the CA gap hit its peak and then continued for another three years. At the same time, the depreciation in the nominal exchange rate was, on average, more than double the decline in the real exchange rate. Second, real GDP growth slowed, on average, by about three percentage points from the year prior to the CA peaking; that impact was largest in the first year of the adjustment process. Third, short-term interest rates typically rose in the beginning of the CA adjustment as central banks attempted to limit currency depreciation; toward the end of the adjustment process, short rates typically fell as the downside of the business cycle played out.

Fourth, the Fed study found that an improved trade balance was an important by-product of most of the CA adjustments in this sample period. Interestingly enough, trade turnarounds were mostly export led, with real export growth being boosted, on average, by four percentage points over the course of the three-year CA adjustment. Import growth, by contrast, slowed quite sharply in the first year of the CA adjustment -- a four-percentage-point reduction, on average -- but then returned to its pre-adjustment trend two years later. Fifth, CA adjustments are typically more investment- than saving-led; national saving ratios change little over the first two years of the adjustment period, whereas aggregate investment ratios typically fell by close to two percentage points over the same period.

All this paints a pretty clear picture as to what to expect in the coming US CA adjustment -- a weaker dollar, slower GDP growth, a less accommodative Fed, firmer exports, and weaker imports and investment. It's yet another manifestation of America's post-bubble adjustment process. During the Roaring 1990s, Americans (especially consumers) took great confidence from equity wealth effects and drew down their income-based saving balances to historic lows. The result was a saving-short US economy that had to rely increasingly on foreign capital to finance its IT-led investment boom. And America had to run a massive CA deficit in order to attract that external capital. But in doing so, the nation lived well beyond its means -- as those means were defined by the domestic income generation associated with national production.

The coming CA correction suggests that this same movie is now about to run in reverse. In my opinion, it's just a matter of when, not if -- and what triggers the adjustment process. Along those lines, there is great debate on whether the coming landing will be "soft" or "hard" -- gradual or abrupt. This is particularly problematic since the dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency and the US is the world's largest international debtor. Given the saturation of dollar-denominated assets in foreign portfolios, a crisis of confidence is not inconceivable. Should that occur, I believe a hard landing would be inevitable. The metrics of past CA adjustments has little to say about differentiating between these two possibilities. But one thing is certain: The longer the day of reckoning is put off, the more severe the macro impacts of the adjustment process are likely to be. That's because CA adjustments are not complete until the deficit gets reasonably close to balance. In the 25 instances covered in the Fed study cited above, CA deficits ended up, after three years, being less than 2% of GDP on all but four occasions. In other words, there's little dispute over the endgame. It's just a matter of when -- and from what extreme -- it begins.

Needless to say, all this has important implications for financial markets. As I see it, two aspects of America's looming CA adjustment should be especially important in that regard -- weaker GDP growth and a fall in the dollar. A shortfall in GDP growth implies a weaker earnings trajectory than most equity investors are assuming. And a weaker dollar should provide ample incentive for global investors to diversify out of dollar-denominated assets -- consistent with our global decoupling thesis. I remain convinced that America's ever-widening current-account deficit is on an inherently unstable path. A correction is coming and there's no dark secret as to what that means. It's just a matter of when the denial finally cracks.
+++++++++++++++
The writer has suggested for months that such a move is in the works.
Chapman's sources have the deval at 19% [Canadian dollar to rise by that amount]

The real problem is the "control" of gold. A $360-$375 pog will be shock enough for the paper sellers on Wall Street [The Pisanis of the World]. There are just too many variables swirling around to be certain about the consequences of a deval...but one is mandatory nonetheless.

This piece is a loud warning...an unmistakeable clarion call from a semi-official Fed mouthpiece...perhaps the final warning to GET GOLD...NOW.

It could easily "Get away" from the Fed. Especially with the arrogance factor radiated by AG.
Siochain
Stock Manipulation as a way to get at gold
Black Blade & Sierra Madre...I agree with your points of last night re using gold stocks as another way to attack POG that's why I had posted those articles showing stock movements and comments by Big Boys this week.

Today, I have been watching Level II on NEM for well over an hour ....during the beginning of the time frame gold stocks were going up ....as we are aware NEM is often seen as the Leader in unhedged.....there was an interesting play between NYS and NAS ...both exchanges...where they would keep putting large numbers up and then pulling them ...trying to limit sales and lower price ...it certainly cut back action when NEM was on a good rise...finally NEM broke thru but it was a fight!

Now who do you think is behind these exchange moves...normal investor doesn't move large blocks and constantly pull and re-do...it was like a dance between the two
Black Blade
J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Other Banks Will Be Named in Enron Case
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APKvt_hUSSi5QLiBN
Snippit:

Houston, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Credit Suisse First Boston will be named as defendants in suits seeking billions of dollars over Enron Corp.'s collapse, people familiar with the litigation said.

Enron investors and former employees have decided to add law firms and as many as eight banks on Monday when they amend their suits, alleging fraud, against the energy trader and its former auditor, Arthur Andersen LLP, the people said.


Black Blade: Not really much of a surprise here. However, the scope of the Enron affair can be damaging to some corporate bottom lines.

Siochain
(No Subject)
Appears same game playing on GG ...and they did succeed there....well we know every trick will be played...but the time is getting short
nickel62
Trust your stockbroker? What that job has really become in the modern era!
In all honesty it is
not really a question of the greed factor so much as the way the "Brokerage
firms" "financial advisors" or whatever you want to call them have structured
themselves in the last twenty years. They have made it very difficult to be an
honest broker for your clients. There main money makers are investment banking
and various asset collection and sale products. In other words they look at
the clients only as a potential market for the bonds and stocks that their
real clients the companies want to sell to them. The stockbroker is viewed as
simply someone who has a personal relationship with a collection of potential
buyers for "deals". So that when there is a new stock issue or a bond issue,
Merrill Lynch can say we have seven thousand brokers that will sell that issue
for you at the best price. That is it. The rest is just window dressing to
keep the clients passive and fully invested in whatever the brokerage firm
wants them to own. The various half truths like "long term investing" "buy and
hold" and you will make 10-15% if you wait long enough are really just buzz
words that years of salesmanship has divised to make it easier to tell the
client to stop whining when the stockbroker is really as confused and scared
as the client is. The main problem is that all the money of these firms is
made by selling stocks and bonds for corporate clients when the corporate
clients want to raise additional capital through debt or equity issues. The
commissions that you and other clients pay that they are looked upon as simply
a subsidy to reduce the cost of having the seven thousand stockbrokers there
to sell the securities of the firm for the large deals. In order to keep the
pigeons in the roost the firm spends a lot on advertising and positioning and
self serving "research" that is really only designed to acheive the main
reason the firm exists at all. This field much like medicine is not really the
Marcus Welby type of place that it once was, when capital was scarce and each
stockbroker had to work hard to get his client to take it out of the bank or
his business. Today capital is abundant and can be created by a refinancing
gimic or through the Federal Reserve waving their magic discount rate and
flooding the market with some more recently printed up liquidity. The whole
game has changed and just like in medicine if you think you are talking to a
caring Marcus Welby type on the other side of the investment desk, you are
either amazing fortunate to have found one or deluding yourself. There are a
few old timers left who have the clients best interests at heart and have such
a strong relationship with their clients that the firms leave them alone, but
in reality most are young inexperienced second tier intellects that are
totally clueless about what really drives the investment markets but know all
to well what gets them paid. Caveat Emptor was first uttered in ancient Rome
by a disgruntled mutual fund client. He was right, and wiser for the
experience. Most of the problem with the whole industry, and I am a
stockbroker by the way although I refuse to practice, is that truely reasoned
opinions that reflect the actual factors that should be considered in the
investment process are not discussed or really allowed to be aired. They would
queer the deal! If the public wakes up and hits the road we have no one else
to make a living off of. So you constantly hear only the bullish side of the
story and anyone who dares try to inform the investing public of the other
side of the equation is ridiculed, mocked as a pessemist, and marginalized. It
is like a court room trial where the search for justice is carried on by only
the prosecution being allowed to present their case. The defense is not
allowed to talk. The media who lives off the advertising revenue from the big
mutual fund companies and brokerage houses,tends to understand the concept of
not biting the hand that feeds it and the so called corporate "free press"
largely follows along. That said, it has not been that bad to be an investor
in this world until the politicans and wall street conspired to bubble the
market to levels way beyond any sensible level of value. With a Dow near
eleven thousand that would be highly valued at half that price the
consequences for our generation become their ability to retire. So the game is
rapidly becoming much more important, whether the clients want it to or not.
So that is what I meant by my reference to the Wizard of Oz. It is a period in
time when to not be informed of what is really going on with your capital will
throw a very long shadow.
Hipplebeck
My take on the Middle East
Every day that the Isrealis can stretch out negotiations, they are able to build more settlements and acquire more land. They have succeeded in stretching out these negotiations for years now and have taken large tracts of high ground in a strategic system of dividing up the Palestinians into smaller and smaller clumps. the Palestinians know this and they are watching their lands being taken over. They have tried fighting this slow encroachment in many different ways to no avail, and now are reduced to suicide bombing. What else can they do? The longer the status quo the more they lose. There are UN resolutions requiring the Isrealis to halt the building of settlements, but they are ignored.
I really believe that the Isrealis cannot give up the Zionist dream of having it all.
The great problem here is that unless they do give up the Zionist dream, they will one day want to build the new temple on the temple mount which requires removing the Mosque now in that location. If they do this, they will plunge the world into war, no doubt about it.
So it comes down to this, will the Isrealis be able to let go of Zionism and recognize that that mosque is going to remain there and they are going to have to stand down there praying at the wailing wall with Muslums standing up above them looking down from the temple mount? I think not.
Because if they do this they will not only have to let go of their long history, but they also fear that Arabs will be so emboldened that the Islamic dream of wiping them off the region will grow. There is no solution other than that which God has ordained, whatever that may be, but it aint gonna be pretty. I think most of us call it Armageddon
Siochain
And another story on declining mined gold
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/04/rtr559047.htmlGlobal gold mine supply seen in sharp decline
Reuters, 04.04.02, 7:03 AM ET

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada.

"A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.

The findings are likely to encourage gold market bulls who see the prospect of reduced mine supply driving prices above $300 a troy ounce, where bullion has been capped for most of the past two years.


(Need to be sure you have gold on hand as well as BB's other listed items...I have some mining shares for play but like the real thing for security)
nickel62
JC TEX
I noticed your comment about the shootings at the University of Texas back in the sixties. That was really one of the first such events that I was cognizant of. Would you mind telling how you came to know him and what drove him to that level of desperation?
Hipplebeck
stock markets
Every week huge amounts of money go into all those 401K plans. That has to mean that there is constant pressure on stocks to go up. Now, when stocks aren't climbing, where is all this money piling up?
TownCrier
Catching the ECB/euro drift, yet? Good for gold.
I've been provided with the latest weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, worth special note because it reflects the latest asset revaluations based on their quarterly mark-to-market practices.

Cutting to the chase, the gold assets of the Eurosystem rose by 12.994 billion euros on the revaluation from last quarter's price per ounce, now standing at 139.808 billion euros in value.

And lest you think for a minute that the phenomenon was a result of the euro losing value, think again. Here's the quarterly performance of Eurosystem assets on a per unit basis as priced in euros.

DOLLAR unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.135 euro
@ end March �02 = 1.146 euro

YEN unit value
@ end 2001 = .00867 euro
@ end March �02 = .00866 euro

SDR (Special Drawing Rights) unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.4245 euro
@ end March �02 = 1.4297 euro

GOLD unit value (per troy ounce)
@ end 2001 = 314.99 euro
@ end March �02 = 347.32

Here, then, is the summary of the percentage performance of each asset over the quarter on a per unit basis:

dollar UP 1.0%
yen DOWN 0.1%
sdr UP 0.4%
gold UP 10.3%

Through this, even the dimmest central banker can see the future glowing firmly; and we can, too.

With this compelling trend, there is no wonder that the European Central Bank and its national member CBs allowed, for example, the EUR 1.6 billion drawdown last week of their net position in foreign currency. This asset account of foreign paper now stands at a still massive EUR 258.6 billion to start the next quarter.

Meanwhile, the gold asset account continues its generally steady climb since euro-launch January 1999 where it stood on the books at 99.598 billion euro. Allowing for the bolstering of the gold asset account by 1.5 billion euro with the Greek membership in January 2001 (and not forgetting the measure of early Dutch, Austrian, and late German sales in accordance with the Central Bank Agreement on Gold), the gold assets of the Eurosystem have performed nicely over the years, now valued at EUR 139.808 billion.

Look for more of this -- letting the winners keep running while the weaklings get cut from the team. I hope this summary has been helpful for showing gold in its new light.

Again, here's a reminder of the first element from ECB president Duisenberg's September 26th 1999 joint Statement on Gold from Washington, D.C.:

"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves."

Amen.

Randy
Black Blade
Jobless Claims Log Surprise Rise
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020404/economy_jobless_7.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of new U.S. jobless claims filed last week skyrocketed by 64,000, partly due to applications for a new government program that extends unemployment benefits for 13 weeks.

Black Blade: Note that recession level unemployment growth is often quoted at 400,000. The BLS announced 460,000 new unemployment claims (partly due to extended benefits). However, these are "seasonally adjusted" numbers (read statistically manipulated). Many others simply do not qualify for extended benefits. Tomorrows numbers are expected to show 50,000 new jobs. I seriously doubt it though as these numbers will be massaged as well � I expect to see additional job losses as there has been for several months.

Siochain
@Hipplebeck
Actually both sides have a dream of having it all...that's why they are enduring a nightmare....and the world faces a potential for a Major war.

Both have to give up their dreams and face reality of compromise...which so far they appear unwilling to do.

By the way, speaking of dreams...I had a strange one several weeks ago where I was seeing the Dome of the Rock blow up....I hope this was also a nightmare and not a premonition...for the women of my family seem to have a Celtic strain where dreams often come about when strongly felt ...so say a prayer ...for if that were to happen...the proverbial Hell would break loose!

Black Blade
@Nickel62

If we are talking about Charles Whitman, then we are talking about someone who was mentally ill. He had approached professionals and clergy for help, however, they were not equipped to deal with his illness. After he was killed by the Texas Ranger who entered the upper deck, his body was transported to the medical center. An autopsy revealed a brain tumor (the cause?). Perhaps not a real comparison to terrorist though.

The situation in the Middle East is much more complex. One man's terrorist is another man's freedon fighter. Asw far as killing innocents as rationale for the difference, then we maybe we should reevaluate the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima, Nagasaki, the carpet bombing of Dresden (not a military target), The bombing of London, etc. Certainly many innocent were purposely killed in war and yet we do not refer to the combatants as terrorists. As I have said in the past - Murder millions and you're a conqueror, murder a few and you're a terrorist. Go figure.

- Black Blade
slingshot
Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
RobotGuyThere are plenty of reasons in the world for Gold to rise and it still hanging around the $300.00 level. Every time we see a $2.00/$5.00/$6.00 rise in POG we tend to believe the BIG ONE is close at hand. Only to have the POG beaten back.
Looks like we are a family going on vacation. Driving to some amusement park and have two children in the backseat.
Yepper, you know that after about an hour driving they start in with, Are we there yet! Of course your answer is,Just alittle longer. You know you still have about 4 hours drive and you begin playing those on the road games. I SPY, Licence Plates,etc. So where is there? What is it going to take to get there? Yes, for the POG to rise.
Will it take China to invade Taiwan? North Korea to invade South Korea? Maybe. How about a full scale war in the ME.
Well, I don't think so. Not even a nuke or some Bio out break will do it. How can I say this. Just that with all that has happened GOLD IS DIRT CHEAP. So what do I think will do it. When it hits the public in the wallet hard.
When they finally realize it is just paper. If the stock market dropped again there would still be payroll deduction going into it. If you always do what you always done, you end up with the same results. They have to change their way of thinking. Otherwise, why would they take any provision to secure wealth. We are a society of credit. And credit equals debt. Gas is going up. Going to buy it anyway. Have to go to work. Grocery bill going up. Got to eat. Electric bill going up. Have to have lights. They public knows it going to take more fiat for the same things yet they fail to make the connection on how to preserve wealth. So, THERE is when it hits the wallet. That paper is just paper. By that time it will be too late for some. The warning signs are there. Argentina and Japan Knows. Until the general public of any country gets a jolt and the rug pulled out from under them, Its is my opinion gold will be slow to rise. But rise it will. So along the way, accumulate and enjoy the veiw.
All the roadsigns are there. We just have to be patient and follow them.
Heck, Are we there yet!

Slingshot----------------<>
Pizz
First Quarter Earnings - Or "When the Worm Turns"
Must be real tough in the COO offices this quarter. Trying to justify multi-million dollar salaries, bonuses, etc with LESS THAN REAL NUMBERS to publish.

If my intuition is correct, nearly all public companies books are either pushed or at least aggressive. They've had to do it to keep their stock prices competitive and to keep their investors happy.

Now thanks to Enron, not only are the beancounters keeping the current books straight (or straighter) they are also on a witch hunt and are reserving the heck out of anything that has been optimistically booked (nice term for fraud) from quarters past that had been negotiated past the auditors. (Final numbers are negotiated just like barter - believe it).

Controllers are not intimidated in this environment and the real laughing matter from their point is that their marketing executives can't even gripe or put a spin on the fact that they feel current numbers aren't reflective of what they did in the past quarter.

What are the executives going to say?? We feel current numbers are low because we've been pumping our books in the past? I don't think so.

Market support seems to be drying up. Kind of like sliding real fast over thin ice on a frozen pond. When your momentum (earnings) slows, the ice has a bit of a problem supporting your wieght. JPM at 40 plus earnings???? Wish I could throw them a golden anchor.

Pizz
JCTex
nickel62 (04/04/02; 14:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 72720)
Nickel62, I just saw you post. If you don't mind, I'll have to get back to you later today, or in the morning.

For now, Charley was a great guy, the All-American type. Some of his other friends & I were talking about him the other day. All of us felt like he simply "went nuts." Not the type to kill a bunch of people, especially his mother and wife. He absolutely adored both of them.

But killing innocents is NOT okay....even when a friend does it.

Sorry, but have to get back to you later.
regards
Black Blade
Retail Job Cuts Have Accelerated
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020404/retail_job_cuts_1.html

Retail Job Cuts This Year Could Be the Worst in at Least Two Decades

Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The pace of retail job cuts, which increased dramatically after Sept. 11, has accelerated in 2002 and this year's losses could be the worst in at least two decades, as the industry consolidates, according to a major employment study to be released Monday.


Black Blade: This doesn't sound like much of an economic recovery to me. In a recovery one would expect more consumer spending and therefore more hires in retail. Not a good sign � in a word "GRIM"

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food storage and basic goods program started.
Black Blade
Oil Prices Close Lower After Bush Orders Powell to Middle East
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020404/200204041648000751_1.html
NEW YORK -- Oil prices tumbled Thursday after President George W. Bush called on Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories and announced that he was sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East in a bid to end the violence.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for May delivery slumped 98 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $26.58 a barrel, after setting a new six-month high of $28.35 during intraday trading. June crude oil surrendered 85 cents, or 3.1%, to $26.81 a barrel....


Black Blade: This is much of the reason for the sudden reversal of Oil and Gold today. Oil had hit prices above $28.00/bbl, and soon as Dubya gave his speech prices tumbled. Apparently there's a lot of faith in Dubya's and Colin Powell's abilities. We shall see.
miner49er
nickel62 @ 72717
Yes, yes, yes... well put...!

Then there's the additional consideration of each firm having to keep up with its most daring rival. If firm X, is willing to take certain risks to eek out a little more return to outdo its competition, each similar competitor generally has to undertake these practices to keep up, as the typical investor does not know enough of what goes on under the hood to satisfactorily gauge the additional dangers, and thus make a sound risk/reward discrimination.

Boxman
Black Blade is famous!
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=2174794&cftoken=13913πd=1156Well, maybe a slight exaggeration, but still nice to see him quoted elsewhere. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, given all the insight to gold and energy that he has given us.

BB, you're not going to start charging us, are you?

Best regards.

The whole segment:

An interesting USAGOLD post:

USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72645)
Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html
Something interesting is going on in the overall gold derivatives' positions. The top three U.S. gold bullion banks' positions fell from $73.2 billion in Dec00 to $48.9 billion in Dec01 reflecting the overall reduction in the gold carry trade positions over the course of 2001. John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) says "recent CB efforts, overt and covert, are designed to keep a short-term lid on gold's price, effectively 'holding the door open' for the commercial banks to get positions squared, or get out all together. If one of these major banks was to require rescue by the Fed or the German or UK Central Bank, it would be far more damaging to world economies, and the rescue more costly, than to keep a lid on gold and allow the big commercial banks get out with survivable losses."

Taking a closer look at the Gold Derivatives Table published at the News & Views page (linked above), one can see that most of the reduction has occurred at J.P. Morgan which went from $30.5 billion 12/00 to $7.3 billion 12/01. I find this very interesting. That makes two out of the big three American gold derivatives' players showing a reduction to the $7 billion level.

Is it now Chase's turn in 2002 to move to the $7 billion level?

I think Doody's right. There holding the door open with derivatives in order to exit their carry trade positions or get the losses to a manageable level -- a workout as we have described many times before. And Chase may be the last to squeak through before the gold demand slams it shut.

This is the best evidence available why gold might be ready to explode. It's like holding a spring with your foot -- when you let go you'd better get out of the way.

Everywhere you look in gold's numbers -- derivatives, the LBMA, etc -- the numbers are telling us that the gold carry trade and mine lending are being unwound.

This is one of the most solid indicators I've seen in a long while why the knights and ladies at this Table might take heart - - Nay, not just take heart, but tip their flagons in celebration.

The battle is being carried, the war won.

-END-

TownCrier
Strad Master, how is it that you feel Jensen's material to be inflamatory?
It's certainly gritty in its detail, but I'm not hearing anything from him that I haven't also been hearing on the televised news -- CNN to cite an example.

In recent days I've received scathing e-mail from all sides, asking why we would dare muck up our website with this Jensen nonsense since he "clearly has a pro-Israeli bias" according to one visitor and he "is grossly sympathetic to Palestinians" according to yet another. I'll assume that it is either one of these two positions that have you frustrated, rather than his other Mideast regional commentary.

So, which of the two is Jensen's handicap, or can it be both at once? Can it be that some people unknowingly filter the same commentary according to their own predispositions on the subject, overlooking the commonalities while focusing instead on the contentions? And just as surely, there are some people who can be at peace with everything, overlooking the differences while paying heed only to the points that fall on "their side". Yet some other people are like willow trees, bending whatever what the last wind blew; thus changing their viewpoint according to the last thing they heard. Others stand their ground against all winds, while yet others run headlong into any wind from any direction, merely for the sake of bending to no outside counsel.

Within the parameters of this discussion forum, the many items I post here are for informational purposes -- wind from many directions. I leave it to each man to assess the weather and thus chart his own course according to his craft.

R.
Sierra Madre
Colin Powell to Middle East, Bush calls on Israel to withdraw from territories...

What's going to happen? Nothing!

No earthly power can dictate to Israel. They will carry out their plans, or take down the whole world with them.

Please tell me I am completely mistaken!

Sierra
YGM
Worthwhile Cause...............
http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/icc_petition_online.htmAmerican Justice for Americans -- No International Criminal Court for Us
>
>
> April 4, 2002
>
>
> Dear friend of liberty,
>
> The International Criminal Court (ICC) will soon become a reality. The
United Nations will hold a celebration for their new world court on
Thursday, April 11, 2002 in New York and Rome.
>
> The International Criminal Court will claim judicial supremacy over the
United States and its people. We are asking President Bush to make it clear
to the International Criminal Court that the supreme law of our land is the
Constitution of the United States -- not the ICC. Rescinding the American
signature to the ICC treaty that former President Bill Clinton authorized
would clearly express that conviction.
>
> If you haven't signed the petition to President Bush, please do so now. We
are in the process of preparing the petitions for delivery to the White
House.
>
> Link to Petition:
http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/icc_petition_online.htm
>
> Also, please tell a few friends about this petition.
>
> If you are one of the 100,000-plus people who have already signed the
petition, thank you!
>
> Kent Snyder
> The Liberty Committee
> http://www.thelibertycommittee.org
YGM
Liberty Committee.....Ron Paul,......
Tireless Advocate of Gold and Liberty is at forefront again.....The Liberty Caucus
******************
Rep. Ron Paul
Chairman
*********
Texas
Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett
Maryland
Rep. John J. Duncan, Jr.
Tennessee
Rep. Virgil Goode, Jr.
Virginia
Rep. John Hostettler
Indiana
Rep. Walter B. Jones, Jr.
North Carolina
Rep. Jack Kingston
Georgia
Rep. Butch Otter
Idaho
Rep. Richard W. Pombo
California
Rep. Denny Rehberg
Montana
Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado
Rep. John Shadegg
Arizona
Rep. Bob Stump
Arizona
Rep. Tom Tancredo
Colorado
Rep. Pat Toomey
Pennsylvania
Rep. Zach Wamp
Tennessee
Rep. Dave Weldon
Florida
YGM
Randy........(TC)
Excerpt....-- wind from many directions. I leave it to each man to assess the weather and thus chart his own course according to his craft...........(TC)

Keep us informed of wind and it's directions. "All STORMS" start with a...... "Gentle Breeze"......YGM.
Pizz
@Black Blade
I had dinner at my best friends house last weekend. Hadn't seen him for a few weeks and asked him if he thought the economy had bottomed like the economists have said.

He looked at me kind of funny and said "Not Yet". I found out why a little later. His 25 year old daughter just got layed off last week, and his brother the week before. His daughter worked for the City and his brother worked in a support industry for telecom.

Trickle down effect from last year should start increasing lay-offs. Most of these will be (are) small companies and will not be picked up by the news media. Many companies in the Pacific NW held employees anticipating the "recovery", but now reality is setting in.

Second wave down won't be as noticable, but much more devastating to the economy.

Another real time economic flag. Our organization has had 3 burglaries in last two months. Hadn't had any for previous two years.

Should be at least a 3rd wave next year, but that will probably be banckrupsy related as the small businesses finally throw in the towel.

Tough times ahead as we know. I'll have a real good idea when reality really starts to kick in, because I work in retail auto, and we still can't find people willing to sell cars. Just as soon as I start seeing resumes come in for sales with Boeing, Lucent, etc. as previous employers, we'll be close to the bottom, or at least a lot closer. Until then, the ship (economy) is just taking on more water.

Pizz



nickel62
JCTex Thank you for the insight...It really is a very small world isn't it...
I was friends in high school with Willie Wolf who was killed a few years later in a police shoot out in LA. He was in the house with the other members of the Symbonese Liberation Army when the (he was the one white guy that Patty Hearst fell in love with or was raped by depending on who you believe) police snipers shot it up and set fire to it. I also like you think they probably did the right thing. I was just stunned that the quiet very peaceful guy I knew ended up that way less than two years after we were playing tag in the yard together. Strange world sometimes.
Siochain
Today was Chase's Turn
From the cafe:
It's The Same Old Song?

It's The Same Old Song, brought to you by The Four Tops and The Gold Cartel. But is it? Maybe yes, maybe no. Chase was the massive seller today on Comex, pounding away at all those who dare be long gold in defiance of His Majesty's cabal and rigged market. The arrogant Gold Cartel has been seriously challenged and they don't like it, so they are doing what they always do � sell, sell, sell, to take gold back below $300 in order to quiet down the newly created excitement over the precious metals. They do so by mobilizing their resources, which means draining more of the west's central bank gold reserves.

It is the same modus operandi used over an over again the past many years. The only question is whether they will get away with it this time. Is the physical gold market so strong that their mobilized resources are inadequate to get the job done? Has The Gold Cartel been found out to such an extent that the big investment players of the world are going to take them on? My guess is that the answer to both those questions is YES!

We shall see and it may take weeks, but the feel of this gold market is much different than the ones of days gone by. Today's Comex gold close was certainly different than in past years as it finished $2 off the lows. In the past gold would have closed near the lows and below $300 after the kind of effort Chase put in today.

The day-to-day is practically impossible to predict, especially when one of our adversaries is the U.S. Government, but gold and silver could take off again at any time. That is why trading in and out is very dangerous. A move of a lifetime is upon us. It is not a time to be out of position.

Silver closed a $4.60/$4.64 gap on the May contract, finishing in the middle of that gap. A highly regarded silver local loves the silver close and the fact that the gap was not violated to the downside. His feeling is that some commercial silver shorts are going to cover fairly soon.

The U.S. economic news was dreadful this morning:

Washington, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. initial jobless claims surged last week to the highest level in four months, distorted by a new law permitting workers whose benefits had expired to apply for an extension.

State unemployment offices received 460,000 new applications last week, up 64,000 in the week that ended Saturday, the Labor Department said. A week earlier, initial claims rose by 20,000.

Siochain
FIGHTING BACK!!!!
A thought for your consideration.....

How about a new campaign....one against the Bullion Banks and Market Manipulators

IF every time we hear of a particular group such as Chase today, we write to them as well as newssources etc

Further...if you have an account with them...demand answers and if need be close the account and let them know why very specifically

Yesterday in the post I made from the cafe, it was mentioned that Schwab was shorting gold stocks heavily yesterday...well Schwab is one of my brokers..as well as for my Mother's estate as well as two brothers

I got on the phone and demanded to know what the story was...I got moved up several times...I let them know that if I found out that THEY were doing the shorting ..first my account and then the others would be moved

They claimed if any shorting it was done on behalf of clients...I followed up with an e-mail to Jim Puplava...who was kind enough to answer confirming that his sources said it was Schwab shorting but they did not know if for their own account or clients.

I got follow-up calls from Schwab today to make sure I was a happy camper...they know I am disturbed but since no proof it was done for their own account...they said no,,,then for now the accounts stay

I think this approach could work if we all did it ...making sure that first your broker cannot use your shares to short...and then if you hear that your broker is negatively impacting...then raise a ruckus

Deal with ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY (GOLD!!!) banks...brokers...and raise cane with the others...very loud...wide ...and clear!!!!

Anybody who deals with Chase should call...e-mail etc your displeasure and let them know that you may be changing ...others can also write!!!!

Let's get going...we may be small...but lose enough accounts and it hurts some...and deprives them of funds to further their dirty work...DEAL WITH GOLD FRIENDLY BUSINESSES!!!



Sierra Madre
On Sovereign Powers in this world

I call that country a Sovereign Power, which is run by its ruler or rulers as he or they see fit, whatever other countries may think of it.

I see only these Sovereign Powers in the world at the present time: China, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, Syria, and of course, Israel.

I do not include the U.S. as a Sovereign Power. Nor any European power.

China is treated with kid gloves, for very good reasons: 1.3 billion Chinese plus nuclear weapons.

North Korea is treated gingerly, it also has nuclear weapons and a strong-willed government. It is classified as part of an "axis of evil", which includes Iran and Iraq, which have resisted being pushed around.

Libya does its own thing, but is quiet about it. Syria is also its own master. (seems to me)

Cuba belongs to Fidel, and no nonsense there.

And nobody, but nobody, tells Israel what to do or not do.

A showdown between these powers, would leave only Israel/U.S. and China. The others can be overcome by the U.S., with heavy losses, perhaps, but they can be levelled.

So that would leave Israel/U.S., against China.

That's the way I see it. Tell me I am all wrong, please! (I may be simplifying too much)

"Them as can, DO; them as can't, send envoys."

Facing the facts is disagreeable. I hope I am not sent to Siberia again, for this.

Sierra


Belgian
@ Sir Strauss Randy
Thanks for the ECB/euro/Gold drift posting ! Driving on Another's trail to the game park...but w're not there yet ! (smile slingshot). Regards, Belgian.
RobotGuy
SlingShot
Oooh, I hope I'm not the one screaming 'are we there yet' in the back seat, my dad used to whack me for that one. "Shut up, you're driving me nuts, you'll know when we get there"

Anywho, I didn't mean to come across as wondering if anyone could predict any immediate radical changes, but just more or less a daily commentary of reasonable speculative analysis.
Like the example I provided of my opinion of what might transpire tomorrow and with reason if the curiosity is there. We could simply state that I don't think anything major is going to happen, but that leaves an idividual's statement open to definition of what major might be.

All I mean to say is that I often see cause before explaination, but I would enjoy also hearing explanation before cause. I think we have enough brain power in this forum to make educated speculations, but that is often something people wish to keep private for fear of being wrong, and having someone point it out.

My dear friend would you care to speculate what might happen with the price of gold by tomorrow's close? I gave my unsupported whim! I have reason, but very basic.


Cheers!

RobotGuy.
AU_Poor
@Sector - your post today from Stephen Roach
Thanks for the Roach article.

If he's right about a double-digit devaluation of the dollar, this should be a significant factor in raising the price of PMs especially gold.

Do your sources give a time-frame? I got into PMs several years ago thinking this was imminent but the amazing, levitating dollar has persisted in spite of all the fundamentals.



Canuck
@ Hipplebeck
Saw your posts today.

My manager is Palestian, his family fled Israel in 1972. Almost each day I stop by his office for more info., more stories. He is obviously anti-Israeli and tries to re-count episodes in a neutral light but I feel his pain. He normally ends our conversations by expressing the horrors in that area as 'a way of being'. It has been a powder keg for a long, long time. The other day I asked him what was the root of all evil, his story mirrors your post earlier.

I have emailed your post to him, I hope that is okay.

Your other post regarding inflation is interesting. As interest rates have fallen in the last year and a half, closing down on gold borrowing costs I noticed gold began to rise. Inflation has been neglible (apparently?) so I wonder if inflation is the driving force. I tend to believe it is the spread between inflation and what one can earn in US treauries. Gibson's paradox, low and behold. I watch the Canadian Bond Index for the 'real return rate', presently at 3.70%. I wonder what 'inflation index' it uses? [ ;) ]

So if one is buried in government securities that are fighting to stay above water, ala closing spreads, and rising risks, would one, should one spread risk in gold?

We hear the ancient arguments of inflation/deflation being good/bad for gold which I now tend to believe is hogwash. Either can be good/bad depending what pays better, yes? Bonds at 15% while inflation is 15% (1980ish) is the same as bonds at 2.5% while inflation is 2.5% (2000ish). Now let's throw in a war, overvalued dollar, an increasing gold supply/demand deficit and ask yourself what 'spread' is tolerable?

So 'real inflation' is 5%, not the reported CPI 2% and bonds are hurting because the phoney SM is rising and what do you have, a negative spread, RED ALERT!! So now we have a theoretical rising SM, pushing bond yields up while the economy is not ready for rising interest rates, oh no! The SM cannot stand rising rates presently while inflation pressures stand ready to smash the entire recovery merciless, RED ALERT! RED ALERT!

Throw Bush in the mix not knowing whether to urinate or pull up his zipper, Morgan Stanley's CA crunch (thanks sector) and we have trouble. One really has to ask oneself, what is the stock market doing? Can you say the government(s) are now running the funny farm!!

I am almost finished reading the crooked nonsense during the 1980 silver bull at the CBOT and Comex, what a joke. The silver longs were jammed, cornered and near beaten. The commodities market is a scam. The stock market is a farce. Let's see, the DJIA has been flat at 10,000 for how many years now while every other 'indicator' has been beaten into an inert mass. Well let's 'manage' 30 stocks okay! Give me a break.

Let's see these buffons 'manage' the bond and currency markets. Gold is a tiny, tiny market, of course it's managed, it's linked to inflation and the dollar and a host of other tangibles. Let's manage this tiny entity so that the monster that we can't control looks like it's under control, good idea, eh?

Why does government mess with stuff they don't fathom? They meddle and tinker and soon they are over their heads. Now we have this monstrosity of a mess that is unmanageable.

Mr Gresham
"Who now remembers the Armenians?"
http://groong.usc.edu/fisk.html" 'WHO NOW remembers the Armenians?' Hitler asked, just before he embarked on the destruction of European Jewry. Precious few, it seems. As the memorial day for the Nazi genocide against the Jews was proclaimed by Mr Blair this
week, there was not a single reference to the slaughter of one and a half million Armenian Christians by the Ottoman Turks in 1915. The world's first holocaust - and Hitler's inspiration for the slaughter of the Jews - was ignored."
Pizz
@Robot Guy
Not to throw water on your idea, but no one can predict accurately over the short term. So why try?

Day to day or even week to week price predictions are an exercise in futility. Way too many variables. You can both be right, for all the wrong reasons, or wrong, for all the right reasons or anywhere in between. Every once in a while a psychic, astrologer, or market advisor gets lucky like a crap player who makes 15 or 20 passes once or twice in a life time. If they're smart they'll write a book or start a subscription service and cash in quick. Ever wonder why if these people are so good, why do they have to take the time to write a book or advise others? Out of the goodness of their heart.?

It's hard enough trying to figure out which way the macro tides are running. Stock's APPEAR to be overvalued based upon everthing I have absorbed from many areas and gold and silver APPEAR to be undervalued. We are also printing more fiat than we are mining metals. EVERYTHING can change tomorrow morning, and probably will, somewhere.

Any day to day speculation also encourages people to trade, and that's gambling in my book. It will do more harm than good to those who try, IMHO. Many very intellegent people have tried and failed to beat the markets consistantly and failed. Intelligence is to wisdom as fiat is to wealth. I'd rather be a wise gold holder than a smart speculator.

Pizz
Siochain
Gold as a Safe Haven
From CNN Money Watch:

Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre as a Safe Hedge
in Troubled Times
Source: Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Publication date: 2002-04-03


Apr. 3--After years of playing the part of Cinderella to
other more-favoured financial assets, gold is finally
shaking off its dowdy image and taking a shot at gaining
the prize for best-performing asset market of 2002.

Since 1997, $300 (UKpound 208) an ounce has been a ceiling
for gold as a combination of central bank auctions and
lending to hedge funds, forward sales by gold producers
and the much-touted death of inflation conspired to keep
the price well below its historic high of $870 hit in
1980.

To those gold bugs who have never given up hope that
this once lauded store of value would again take its
rightful place in the pantheon of credible financial instruments, the poor performance of the commodity
has been nothing short of a conspiracy.

Indeed, according to many gold aficionados, particularly
those at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, the US
Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and European central
banks, in league with major US investment banks, have
conspired to keep the price of gold low.

Gold broke through the $300 level to reach a two-year
high of $307.80 on 8 February. But the move did not last
long, and as the price drifted off German Bundesbank
President Ernst Welteke conveniently speculated that
Germany might at some stage start selling gold. The
timing of his statement was seen by many as an attempt
by the central banks to ensure the price of the commodity remained capped below $300. However, the price has
since rebounded, trading back above the key $300 level
last week.

The latest rebound has been driven by new-found interest
from the hedge funds, many of whom are betting that
persistent selling by large investment banks to keep
the price down, and central bank comments to achieve
the same end, will ultimately fail to cap the upward
trend.

Indeed, the talk now is that this so-called cartel is
about to get its come-uppance, with some gold optimists suggesting gold may hit $600 or even $1000 an ounce.

The Enron scandal has brought to the fore the issue of
cartels and especially the role of so-called bullion
banks that reportedly have very large short positions
in gold via the derivatives market. These are now being
squeezed as the price of the commodity rises. Indeed,
there is wildfire speculation among some US gold
watchers that if the price of gold moves even $20-$30
higher we are going to see these shorts getting hammered.

There are plenty of other reasons why gold and gold-related stocks are worth serious consideration. As well as Enron,
the markets also have to contend with Argentina's debt
default and the huge bankruptcy cases of US companies.

Another factor favouring gold is the quadrupling of
purchases of bullion by Japanese consumers worried about
the safety of their bank deposits. Also, investors in
the Middle East have started to actively purchase the
metal as tensions over Iraq, Israel and Palestine mount.

Finally the all-powerful US dollar, which has held up
remarkably well in the face of a weaker US economy,
evaporating corporate profits and heightened worries
over the threat from terrorism, may be set for a downturn,
which usually means higher gold prices.

Against this backdrop there is a genuine case for thinking
that gold provides an attractive hedge against financial
and political stress.

However, gold has to become more than just an icon of
gold bugs, conspiracy theorists and short-term speculators. Instead it needs to broaden its appeal as an asset among mainstream investors anxious to protect themselves in an increasingly uncertain financial and political environment
Black Blade
@Boxman - Lemetropolecafe Post

I thank you anyway, however, I think your accolades should be directed toward our host MK. As it was his post about the "disappearing" Gold derivatives. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, how's the economic "container indicator" these days?
Carl H
Re: FIGHTING BACK
Not patronizing the brokers would probably not hurt them that much (it would, however, make you feel better). Consider this instead -- in most brokerage accounts your shares can be used by others for shorting. If memory serves me, the shorting party need not even be at the same brokerage house. (I do not know if shares held in a retirement account can be used for shorting -- that is a point that I have been meaning to research.) What I might suggest is that owners of shares in mining companies place those shares in a situation where they cannot be used for shorting. One way of doing this is to take posession of the stock certificates (This is what I have done for our non-retirement account). It is a pain, but you then know that your shares are not being used against you. In my case, it has also helped temper the desire to sell on every little bump.
slingshot
RobotGuy
Cause before ExplainationIf cause before explaination is simular to cause and effect,why not. Gold should close at $298-$299.
I'm getting use to the ups and downs. There may have been some sabre rattling but nothing unusual. The ME tension has a messenger on the way and Hope has filled a void for the time being.The news of Argentina and Japan has run its course and even A. Anderson is beginning to go to the back burner. The media has turned its eye to the Catholic church and its doing and the masses are lulled into a sense of security. The demand for gold has eased as some now want to wait and see what happens next so I would expect a slight down turn but not to break the support level.
Slingshot
Mr Gresham
Disappearing Derivatives: BB, MK, Randy, anyone?
I've gotta be quick with this or I may not get it out today at all, but HOW could they disappear without driving the price back up?

Only thing I can think of is options, which, if you can get enough time to go by, can expire out of the money. Those meanwhile might have shown up at great nominal value, but not much actual profit with small premiums.

Shorts, and (I think) swaps, require actual buying (or paybacks) to cover, right? Equal effect on the other end. So where do the derivs go?

You can't postulate a mountain of derivatives driving AU down from 500 to 270, and covering most of it sends it only back up to 300???????

If some dumb turkey Enron-style was found to take the other side from these banks, then they had to fork over some real cash to do it, or these banks wouldn't be off the hook, would they?

Help me with the disproportionalities here, willya?
Cavan Man
Mr. Gresham
Let us not forget the Ukranians during the Stalin era and the Irish in the mid-19th century. Many Greeks were slaughtered by the Turks as well.
Black Blade
Mr Gresham and Cavan Man

Then again if you want to discuss holocaust the we can't leave out the American Indian. There was a US governmnet policy of genocide. The US government even went as far as using biological weapons (small pox infected blankets). We in the US are certainly not blameless when it comes to genocide.

- Black Blade
USAGOLD
Mr. Gresham. . . .
Excellent question. . . .Options do not have to be covered. They can expire worthless. As such, for the so-called "cabal", they are a cost of doing business -- always have been . Q. What the business? A. The gold carry trade.
Rockgrabber
Perhaps a decent stategy for those in the paper markets.
This is for those of you who may be looking for a way to profit in the paper markets. (probably best off just skipping this one over) First you have to make it so you dont have the tendency to lose money over and over. Next you must take money out of your winning posotions, with still keeping them. Those are the two principles for this idea. OK example. You have to enter you positions with a straddle (A put and call) Gold is at 300, buy a 305 call. Then buy a 295 put. Lets say you are bullish, even with the market rigged, for the purpose of how to take profits and keep from losing money, I need to clarify this is for the bullish position. For the profit strategy is different if you are bearish. Now if the position drops to say 295. You keep your 305 call sell your 295 put (may need to drop a bit below 295 I realize) for double what you paid for it. OK so you sell the 295 put you own and buy a 290 put and a 300 call. Now you own a 305 and 300 call and a 290 put. With no loss even though the market went against you, your put profit is in another put and a call. Now say it falls to 290 (or a bit below). Sell your 290 put once again. Keep your 305 and 300 calls and add another 295 call and a 285 put. You now own a 305,300,&295 calls and one 285 put. Now see you are ready for a spike. Just do it that way incase you are wrong about being bullish in paper.-------
Now what do you do if the market goes up when you enter you initial posotion. Think about it and you can come up with a strategy. If you make a killing with this technique you can buy me gold here at CPM and let me know. Personally I cannot trade. I am 28 and have a mess of a tax problem, and no credit. I have studied for 8 years (While commercial fishing) and 3 times lost my trading account. So carefull taking this advise!! ahahah. Not kiddin though, I bet that works very well. I should have listened better to Sir Trail Guide back in those ol days. With this technique I believe I would have been fine however. If you see any holes in this let me know if you would. Thanks
Cavan Man
Further if I may....
Mr. GreshamOne could also ask; "Who now remembers the Orthodox"? Orthodox Christians have been murdered by the tens of millions in the 20th century. Most of the Armenians you refer to are counted among those numbers. The horrors of Nazi Germany were far eclipsed in these many slaughters. She is called "the Church of martyrs" for good reason.

Black Blade: Thanks and cheers!
Grubstaker
GOLD $$ REALITY..
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/04/rtr559047.htmlLONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada.

"A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.

The findings are likely to encourage gold market bulls who see the prospect of reduced mine supply driving prices above $300 a troy ounce, where bullion has been capped for most of the past two years.
end of article.......
***********************************************************
During the early-mid 1990's the "accepted" and often quoted mining "break even" $$ price of GOLD was accepted as $325. Any price below this point was considered a bargain for us physical buyers. As the "new economy" madness ensued this price "evolved" into $275...well folks it's time for the wake up call here....the GOLD bear days are gone and any opportunity to accumulate at below $300 are numbered (if not already past)...
I will state for the record;
Soon we will most certainly see the return to the $325 "break even" price..any accumulation of PHYSICAL GOLD BELOW THIS PRICE WILL BE PERCIEVED AS A BARGAIN...funny how reality seems to change...kind of like "pro forma " earnings..al� "spin"..
silvester
Waverider
Hey Waverider,

Do we know how much of the Arab 2.4 trillion is in the Dow or the Nasdaq? How many total foreign and domestic dollars are in the Dow and the Nasdaq?
Mr Gresham
BB, Cavan Man
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/087558070X/qid=1017973329/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_3_1/104-6439043-4675136No, it wasn't a specific group of victims I was after. It is honoring ALL of them, by honoring the slogan "Never again", to which I fully subscribe. To anyone -- anywhere. The details may be sticky (especially in this instance) but the principle still holds. And re-asserts itself in just about every news headline each day.

Gandhi and King were on to something, and anyone who does not take their movements into consideration is shearing off the possibilities of better outcomes for the people they seek to help or liberate. Palestinians of all people should have been commended to this path, but I understand the difficulties they would have had in wholeheartedly adopting it. And, yet, what has been their outcome in the alternative?

BB: There was a guy named Chivington, up Denver way, whose men rode through the streets of Denver with the anatomical evidences -- too gross too detail here -- of their slaughter at Sand Creek skewered on the ends of their swords ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee" -- Dee Brown). That is one that was demonically inspired, I am sure, and makes me embarrassed to admit Anglo-Saxon heritage in common with these savages.

I think the smallpox blankets were the British during the 1763 war, but it was probably tried elsewhere by U.S. later (Sherman?). There's enough shame to go around...

Hey -- I believe in Black reparations, too. (So -- shoot me, fellas) -- I believe every descendant of a Black slave would be entitled to about $20,000 (back of the envelope) in a fair court settlement for denied wages. Clear conscience knows no price tag, true, but at least it's not an infinite one. It's just a message -- Don't do it again!
Chris Powell
Howe lawsuit against BIS, U.
Howe files motion for more proceedings in
suit against BIS and U.S. government:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1072

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Chris Powell
Howe lawsuit against BIS, U.S. government revived
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1072Reg Howe files motion for more proceedings in
his lawsuit against the BIS and U.S. government.


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by email and get them immediately so
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nickel62
Black Blade.
Thanks for the insight into the Charlie Whitman situation. I was quite young at the time and never understood exactly what happened. I lost my first wife to a brain tumor so can understand what might have transformed him. Thanks again.
Chris Powell
GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1073GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout on
the gold price suppression scheme.


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Trapper
Siochain
Read your post about Schwab and the shorts. I too have lots of gold stocks at their place so I call. Well I never heard a man studder so much. Can you belive that he said it must have been Mr. Schwab who was shorting.Well I got no place with him but it is after hours.
Question do you have any more info cause I will find a gold friendly place spend my money?
Live small.
RJ
R Powell
Rockgrabber / Mr. Gresham
Warning- post content concerns paper trading
Rockgrabber, I've often used your straddle opinion idea but think of buying both the call and put at the money, then sell whichever increases enough to cover the costs of two more (again one call and one put and again with the same market current at-the-money strike price). If the market is volatile enough the number of held options will increase with no more than the inital investment. A good size reversal profits on the larger number of options (puts or calls) accumulated. Buying more time (further out months until option expiration) as you accumulate increases the time frame.
This has not worked well in the gold market over the years because big moves in both directions are needed, along with discount commission rates, for this to work.
I've used it in copper, selling one leg of the straddle and then initiating another full straddle on every 2-3 cent move. With 3-4 cent moves another month's time can be included in the deal. Without price movement, the options loss value quickly with the passage of time.

Mr Gresham, if the large derivative positions in the gold market were from options sold then the sellers exposure to those would decrease with time. Options are time wasting assets for the buyer. So, by discontinuing the sales, the potential exposure (for the sellers) simply fades away with time. Also, I can not understand how anyone can even estimate the true potential exposure of Goldman or anyone since futures or options sold can be covered or the potential losses limited with other strategies. It gets incredibly complicated. Risky? Yes! Complicated Yes! Dangerous? Absolutely! How complicated? Risk in short deverative positions in gold or silver might be somewhat or even completely offset by long positions in the XAU index!
I am very suspect of any figures concerning anyone's position, even outright OTC sales as there are so many ways to offset risk. This does not eliminate risk, it offsets or transfers it. I consider my knowledge as barely adequate to play the game so please question my supposins but I'm supposin that the ever fluxuating derivative exposure may have been reduced with the time wasting nature of sold options and reduced through offsetting strategies. Perhaps there is a formula for how many Drooy shares must be bought to counter the potential loss for every sold call or future, with more Drooys bought for every dollar increase in POG after the options' strike price has been exceeded. Perhaps the potential losses have been limited with bought calls with higher strike prices? Perhaps the potential gain from every ten Drooy shares covers the spread between the short options potential loss up to the point (POG) where the loss is covered with options held at a higher srike price. My point is to express the complexity of the situation. Perhaps absurd but part of the puzzle nonetheless.
If they have greatly lowered the exposure, it has not been done without cost other than those that have lost value due to the passage of time. Sorry for talking shop here but it's an essential part of the question. It's the money management part of the game.
Rich
Black Blade
Energy futures prices undergo corrections
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=140200

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Apr. 4 -- Energy futures prices regressed Wednesday as international markets adjusted from earlier spikes this week. The May contract for benchmark US sweet, light crudes dropped 15� to $27.56/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June position lost 18� to $27.66/bbl. However, both rebounded in after-hours electronic trading to $27.65/bbl and $27.76/bbl, respectively.

Unleaded gasoline for May delivery fell 2.14� to 84.84�/gal, wiping out the previous day's gain of 2.08�. Natural gas for the same month was rolled back 14.8� to $3.51/Mcf, nullifying Tuesday's gain of 12.3�. The May heating oil contract dipped 0.12� to 70.83�/gal on the NYMEX.

The American Gas Association reported early Wednesday an unexpectedly heavy withdrawal of 65 bcf of natural gas from US underground storage last week, compared with drawdowns of 69 bcf the previous week and 51 bcf during the same period a year ago. That ended the traditional winter withdrawal season with a little more than 1.4 tcf of gas still in storage, up 804 bcf from last year. "We now expect storage levels entering next winter at the beginning of November to be at 3-3.1 tcf, based on an expected 2% year-over-year decline in domestic natural gas production," with a projected growth of 2.9% in the US gross domestic product, said Robert Morris of Salomon Smith Barney Inc. That economic growth should increase US demand for natural gas by an additional 1.75 bcfd, or 3%, this year, Morris reported Thursday.


Black Blade: Of course growth projections for natural gas are based on continuing production. The decline in natural gas will only accelerate as fewer drill rigs explore and produce natural gas. Decline rates have been accelerating as these producing fields age and reserves are not being replenished. Storage withdrawal rates are still higher than year ago levels. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate and threatens to spread to other regions. Thankfully the US is in an economic recession as we would be heading into another "energy crisis" that we are not prepared for (dodged another bullet?).

R Powell
Mr. Gresham/ Michael
Carry trade included in derivative number? I wonder if the large amount of gold, leased and sold over many years which is the true unwindable position is being included in the derivative exposure numbers?
If so, I'll echo your question. This gold carry trade gold has warped the supply/demand equation for these many years, I can't see how it could possibly be bought back without POG going into orbit.
Again, this leasing, carry-trade-created huge short position sets gold and silver apart as unique from all other commodities. This is said in reference to the manner in which they are traded. That gold and silver are money also clouds the issue, no?
Rich
sector
Options on Options to secure a futures position which hedged a short with a double straddled alligator bull spread.
Or how my brother got hosed trying to outsmart the big boys in goldI must remember that some people actually can make money in the futures and options trade.

It's just that I swore an oath never to even try. Maybe I lost a fortune in doing so.

This gold trading thing is not as simple as the Elliot wavers would have you believe. My brother, a university associate professor, sent me all the pamphlets...he did all the due diligence. In the end he had kids and his priorities changed. He never did make too much money at it.

The point is that there are hundreds of very savvy Fed economists who have unlimited funds and time to set you up for failure in this manipulated COMEX market.

You win by being long gold with money you don't need.

Cutely trading in and out is needlessly risky in my view. The upside is 10X physical...just as it was in 1971. Maybe more now.

GATA and a small army of dedicated soldiers have exposed the truth that the Treasury is running a bit short of ammunition these days and that big, long players across the globe are now offsetting the cabal's past strength.

Swinging for the fences with paper options and COMEX futures just isn't necessary. The authorities can change the COMEX rules whenever they please. Ask the Pt players on the TOCOM. They may be getting close to yet another default in Platinum.

I have some physical. I don't calculate how much it's worth today vs. what I paid...I don't care now. It's in the future that I will care...when eyes will pop as I bring them out. I also have some unhedged miners...they manufacture and distribute actual "money". They are the JPMs of the future.
sector
Keeping Eyes on Japan and Mrs. Watanabe
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold sets standard in Japan
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: April 3 2002 21:56 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 22:03



Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal.

Japanese households bought Y24bn ($180m) of gold in February, according to JP Morgan, and gold imports increased more than seven times from February 2001 to almost 20,000kg.

"It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist At JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investment can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, Japan's leading retailer of gold bullion, reported a nine-fold year-on-year increase in retail sales in February, while Mitsubishi Materials, Japan's biggest non-ferrous metals maker, saw sales surge to 13 times last year's level.

Concerns about the health of Japanese banks, believed to hold large portfolios of non-performing loans, run deep, even though speculation about an impending financial crisis in March was proved wrong.

But talk of a "March crisis" saw many Japanese shift their money from bank deposit accounts into gold and other assets. Gold sales were also spurred by the government's decision to lift the guarantee on bank time- deposits of more than Y10m from April 1.

Although that deadline has now passed, the guarantee will be lifted from other types of bank accounts in April next year, leaving Japanese savers still fearful for their life savings.

The Financial Services Agency's report on its special inspection of the banks' non-performing loans, due out this month, is likely to deepen concern about the banks.

Meanwhile, Japanese corporations will begin to report their annual results, which are expected to reflect the bleak economic environment, from next month.

"Gold sales are still much higher than last year and that's because of the state of the economy and the banks. May and June could be another panic point that could trigger another big surge in sales," said Yoshihiro Matsumoto, head of the gold retail group at Mitsubishi Materials.

The price of gold futures has surged in Tokyo recently on fears that the Arab-Israeli conflict and tensions between the US and Iraq could spill into a bigger regional war, but retail investors continue to buy. "Usually the Japanese don't buy when the price goes up, but this time it's different," said Mr Matsumoto.

A broker at one of Japan's leading general trading companies said she expected gold retail sales to increase if the price fell even slightly. "The public are holding long positions in gold and enjoying the surge in prices.

"If prices fall, brokers and short-term traders will sell but the public will buy."

There is anecdotal evidence that Japanese investors are buying gold futures and other commodities, such as platinum. Platinum futures surged yesterday, sending the spot platinum price above $540 an ounce for the first time since July.

"It's calmed down since February's peak, when we had crazy sales. But even now people come in with tens of millions of yen and take several kilos of gold bars home with them," said Mr Matsumoto.
Pizz
R Powell
Could this be possible:

Leased Gold = Mine Hedge Books??

Senario: Lease gold with a bank guarantee, sell gold, invest most of fiat, and buy forward contracts on margin with rest of fiat from hedge miners as insurance.

If you own the forward contract you do not have to sell, you can demand delivery.

Could our hedged miners be in a position where they can't cover directly and they are just going to have to deliver?

Who did the leasing? Enron partnership type entities set up for the sole purpose of controlling gold's price? Nice scam but the monkey wrench could have been 911 and mid east war. Even if gold spikes, it's the mines that get hurt, not the banks or leasers. Hmmmm...

Makes sense to me from a sort of conspiratorial mind set.

Pizz
Mr Gresham
BB: History lovers only
http://www.yiddishbookcenter.org/story.php?n=6I forgot before, in the heat of the post, but one of history's delicious ironies (to me) is that the National Yiddish Book Center, founded by Aaron Lansky & friends driving around the East in a beat-up van rescuing books, and a dying culture, is now located in a beautiful new library in the town named after the English commander who sent the Indians the smallpox blankets in the hopes of exterminating them.
Rockgrabber
***Mr. R Powell***
*** Regarding those straddle ideas. I have not fared so well in the past trying to short the stock market. I think any trading in any market for me in the future will (unless I find out it does not work for yet another unforseen occurance) include the use of the straddle technique.*****



If for nothing else having played in these markets has taught just what a mess they have created in the paper gold market. Many people who yeild the mighty power of wealth are rats and not to be trusted. Their interest does not look for your best. All they have to do is sell all the paper it takes to hold prices to wherever they wish. I am sure it wont be to long untill for some strange reason the premiums on physical gold rise. As a "temporary" physical shortage hits the markets. It wont be temporary most likely however. The paper players may never see the gains, and if they do they will be in dollars. I have to say the best reading I have ever just happened to come across has been here on this page ("The Gold Trail"). Gold in Hand looks better and better all the time.
Rockgrabber
$$Mr. Black Blade$$
$$Man I wish I could buy you a Negro Mendelo my freind. It sure is easy when all I have to do is come here and get all the great relavent stories you have found and posted. I bet you are a great guy to twist one up with. The pleasures that others must have had in your company at those times I am sure is super. I by the way loved the ant and grasshopper analogy. I live here in California (sorry). Its amazing what little brats are driving around on these roads here. Big Suburbans, BMW's, decked out trucks with motorbikes in the back. Peircings and scribble marks all over their bodys. They pay attention to not a thing, and this lifestyle the feel they deserve? I am definitly not going to cry for these folks I am sorry to say. Thank you for your efferts good sir. Cheers. $$


Sorry for the jibber folks. Wanted to let Mr. Black Blade know he is much appreciated in my eyes.
Black Blade
Mr. Gresham � Germ Warfare and the American Indian

It would appear that the Brits also may have engaged in the American Indian Genocide. Lord Jeffrey Amherst commanding general of British forces in North America during the final battles of the so-called French & Indian war (1754-1763) apparently wrote of using small pox to "inoculate the vermine". These stories are reported, for example, in Carl Waldman's Atlas of the North American Indian [NY: Facts on File, 1985]. Waldman writes, in reference to a siege of Fort Pitt (Pittsburgh) by Chief Pontiac's forces during the summer of 1763:

... Captain Simeon Ecuyer had bought time by sending smallpox-infected blankets and handkerchiefs to the Indians surrounding the fort -- an early example of biological warfare -- which started an epidemic among them. Amherst himself had encouraged this tactic in a letter to Ecuyer. [p. 108]


Other sources:

See Ann F. Ramenofsky, Vectors of Death: The Archaeology of European Contact (Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1987):

Among Class I agents, Variola major holds a unique position. Although the virus is most frequently transmitted through droplet infection, it can survive for a number of years outside human hosts in a dried state (Downie 1967; Upham 1986). As a consequence, Variola major can be transmitted through contaminated articles such as clothing or blankets (Dixon 1962). In the nineteenth century, the U.S. Army sent contaminated blankets to Native Americans, especially Plains groups, to control the Indian problem (Stearn and Stearn 1945). [p. 148]

The use of small pox as germ warfare was also used by the US Army against the Cheyenne and earlier against the Cherokee under orders from President Andrew Jackson.

See also Robert L. O'Connell, Of Arms and Men: A History of War, Weapons, and Aggression (NY and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989):

Marking a milestone of sorts, certain colonists during the French and Indian Wars resorted to trading smallpox-contaminated blankets to local tribes with immediate and devastating results. While infected carcasses had long been catapulted into besieged cities, this seems to be the first time a known weakness in the immunity structure of an adversary population was deliberately exploited with a weapons response. [p. 171]

Anyway, it's all water under the bridge. We certainly don't live in a perfect world. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Rockgrabber

Why thank you. I used to live for a time in Hayward, Castro Valley, and (Gulp) Escondido many years ago. In many ways it was very nice, and in other ways I felt as though the inmates were running the asylum. Still, I have relatives and several friends living there. Two cousins in LA who are lawyers (one is even a "Jewish lawyer" in the Entertainment biz - as he constantly reminds me), and another is a Moravian minister in Oakland. Even so, I do have fond memories of how life used to be in "Kalifornia". Cheers!

- Black Blade
Waverider
Silvester
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/datapage.htm"Do we know how much of the Arab 2.4 trillion is in the Dow or the Nasdaq? How many total foreign and domestic dollars are in the Dow and the Nasdaq?"

I don't know, nor do I know where one could find that information...maybe someone else here does? I think the Arabs are even guessing the 2.4 trillion figure in expatriated funds. I've seen a number of estimates suggested in the various Arab economic websites I've bookmarked.

You may find the above link of interest - good raw economic data. Check out the "Federal Debt Held by Foreign Investors" and the "US Balance on Current Accounts" - interesting given the article that Sector posted earlier today. Hope that helps at least a little. Cheers,

Waverider
Black Blade
Global gold mine supply seen in sharp decline
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/04/rtr559047.html
Snippit:

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada. "A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.


Black Blade: There hasn't been any significant exploration for about 6 years in the US. I am sure that this corresponds to most mining companies worldwide. Within the next couple of years we should see many large mines run out of reserves and go on "care and maintenance". It takes a minimum of 5 years from permitting to even begin mining. Mine supply will run short very soon and it will be years before any new supply comes to market.

Spartacus
Japan
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APK0QyBTcSmFwYW4n
Tokyo, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Japanese government's debt collecting agency has 20 officers trained in martial arts and small arms, a vital skill when much of the $33 billion it aims to recover was lent to yakuza gangsters.
----------------
The need for action is getting more urgent, investors say. This year, an average of 55 companies are going bankrupt each day, defaulting on loans whose collateral is often backed by real estate. Last year, land prices fell an average 5.9 percent, the fastest pace in nine years.

Still, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for all but 10 months of the past 50 years, doesn't seem to want to expand the agency's role. It's betting eventual recovery of the economy will help creditors meet payments and reduce the level of non-performing loans, which Goldman estimates to total 237 trillion yen, or 39 percent of all bank lending.

``There is no need to rush the disposal of non-performing loans as any gain in land prices or the stock market would help clear a significant portion of Japan's bad debt problem,'' LDP policy chief Taro Aso said last month.


Black Blade
Wall Street job cuts highest since '74
http://www.suntimes.com/output/business/cst-fin-wall04.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK--Wall Street shed 43,300 jobs in the year ending in February, marking the biggest cuts in more than 25 years. The firing spree may not be over. Credit Suisse First Boston's John Mack, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Henry Paulson and other chief executives of securities firms are finding they still have too many employees given that mergers plunged by two thirds last quarter and stock sales slumped 15 percent, corporate recruiters say. ''Every firm has a list for the next wave,'' said Henry Higdon, chairman of New York-based recruiting firm Higdon Group.

Merrill Lynch & Co. has cut the most jobs, shedding about 9,000 positions in the fourth quarter, while Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. eliminated 3,800 jobs in the year ending in February. More cuts have occurred since then. Credit Suisse First Boston said Tuesday it fired 300 investment bankers. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month said more layoffs are coming.


Black Blade: Of course the reason for so many firings was due to the 1973-1974 recession triggered by the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Many Wall Street pimps continue to deny that there ever was a recession this last year. I suppose that the expected recession is yet to come � perhaps these Wall Street institutions are firing people because they know what is coming. Obviously they do not expect business to pick up anytime soon.

Mr Gresham
Musical Tribute: Somebody had to do it...
http://www.gaytan.org/lyrics/my_sharona.txtWhere are the great old lyricists of yesteryear? Was it Goldfan or Goldhunter? Forgive me, whoever is still up, but I can't go to bed till I inflict this upon you...

MY SHARONA
- written by Doug Fieger and Berton Avarre
- as recorded by The Knack
- reached #1 in 1979 {great year for gold!}

Ooh, my little pretty one, my pretty one
When you gonna give me some time, Sharona
Ooh, you make my motor run, my motor run
Tanks are comin' over the line, Sharona

Never gonna stop, or give it up, now their dirt is mine;
I always get it up for the touch of that Palestine.
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Sharona

Come a little closer, huh, a-will ya, huh?
Close enough to look in my eyes, Sharona
Whoa! That's close enough! Now I see, yes I see
Mushroom cloud risin' up in the skies, Sharona

Never gonna stop, give it up, ...

When you gonna give to me, a gift to me
Is it just a matter of time, Sharona?
Standing trial with Slobodan, Slobodan
In the wars you ordered those crimes, Sharona?

Never gonna stop, give it up, ...


Black Blade
Still Legal To "Cook The Books"
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000023971apr04.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2DbusinessAccounting Rules Regulations: Companies may have more time before they must add some off-balance-sheet financing to the books.

Snippit:

Accounting rule makers may delay tougher new guidelines for the financing vehicles used by Enron Corp. to hide debts. The delay may allow many companies more time before adding costly liabilities to their books.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board said Wednesday that it may phase in the change for certain existing entities used to finance property purchases. For new entities, however, the rules probably will take effect by August. FASB Chairman Edmund Jenkins previously said the rules would take effect for all companies by year's end.

The biggest effect of the proposed changes would be on thousands of companies that financed property using so-called synthetic leases. Those firms would have to begin including that debt on their balance sheets. The change could add an estimated $100 billion in debt to corporate balance sheets, analysts said.


Black Blade: In other words � It's still legal to "cook the books".

Black Blade
"Face The Facts: Gold Mines Are Closing"
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barron.htmStraight Talk on Mining
February 16, 2002

Snippit:

What a week it has been! There have been numerous reports for the last two weeks of the Japanese piling into the yellow metal, in advance of the March 31st cap on bank deposit insurance. Those who watched ABC Evening News in the USA tonight were treated to the spectacle of Japanese housewives buying kilo bars to protect the family savings. Let me say that again just in case you can't believe your eyes. Yes, they were buying gold bars - not US Dollars - GOLD BARS, and it was on mainstream media T.V. at prime time. This wasn't like the Argentines lined up to sell pesos for dollars as we've seen on the news recently. The Japanese have substantial savings socked away, and they're sinking it into gold. The commentator talked about a possible debt implosion that could rock America if substantial holdings of American bonds and equities are liquidated.

Monday, the Japanese market was closed; other Asian markets were closed for several days this week. On Monday morning, Prudential Securities analyst John Tumazos chopped his target for Newmont Mining Corp. by more than half, and moved his rating to "sell" from "hold". This was trumpeted by Bubblevision on a half-hourly basis the whole day, beating the gold price down from a two-year high. On Tuesday, Bloomberg News blamed the preceding day's fall in the gold price "on expectations that a 6% surge in prices last week will curb demand from jewelers".


Black Blade: An older article worth reviewing. Yes indeed, the mines are closing � and they are not being replaced. In fact large miners aren't exploring, but rather are buying up smaller operators. This can't go on forever. At some point the Gold runs out. Then � Blast Off!!!

Good article
Pippin
6 Banks, 2 Law Firms Added to Enron Suit
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020404/enron_lawsuit_1.htmlQuote
HOUSTON (Reuters) - At least six investment banks and two law firms that advised Enron Corp. (ENRNQ - news) and auditor Andersen will be added to a huge shareholder class action suit over the bankrupt energy trader's collapse, sources close to the case said on Thursday.
The banks and law firms will be named in an amended complaint set to be filed on Monday, two sources told Reuters. If the plaintiffs are successful, the suit could have potentially destructive consequences for Wall Street if they are found to be liable.
The suit will name investment banks Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER - news), Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM - news) and Credit Suisse First Boston (CSGZn.VX), Citigroup (C - news), Barclays Bank Plc (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BARC.L), law firms Vinson & Elkins, Enron's Houston-based outside counsel, and Andersen lawyers Kirkland & Ellis of Chicago, the sources said.
UnQuote

Stormy weather in perspective.
Black Blade
Barbarous Relic Found in UK
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/D/20020404/wedit0404?hub=homeBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wedit0404&date=20020404&archive=RTGAM&site=Front&ad_page_name=breakingnews
And the gold cup goes to ...

Snippit:

London � An extremely rare gold Bronze Age cup has been found by an amateur treasure hunter � only the second such discovery in Britain, archeologists said Thursday.

The embossed 11-centimetre-high cup was found in a prehistoric burial mound in a field in Kent by a member of the public using a metal detector.

Dating back to 1700-1500 B.C., the ceremonial vessel beaten from a single lump of gold is roughly the same age as the famous prehistoric stone circle at Stonehenge and is one of the oldest treasures ever discovered in Britain.

A similar treasure, the Rillaton cup, was found buried with a human skeleton in Cornwall 1837 and is now in the British Museum.


Black Blade: All that commotion over a barbarous relic. Hmmm�
Black Blade
Asian Markets Mixed and Oil Higher
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Asian markets were mixed with very little movemnet in either direction. Oil is up 29 cents and threatening to rebound over $27.00/bbl. Gold has slipped into a coma. In the ME, Arafat now says he is willing to accept "Bush Peace Plan". Meanwhile fighting is still flaring up in Bethlehem while Israelis and Palestinian fighters demolish Christian shrine. Also, Lebanese have fired Katushka rockets into Israel.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Iran - Call For Oil Embargo?

Just across the wire is a report that Iran has called for a month-long Oil Embargo against the west. Awaiting details.

- Black Blade
Spartacus
Japan
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APK11phQYU3VtaXRv

Tokyo, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. said it expects a full-year loss more than three times its earlier forecast because it wrote off more bad loans than previously planned.

Sumitomo Mitsui, the world's second-largest lender by assets, said its group loss probably totaled 480 billion yen ($3.63 billion) for the year ended March 31, larger than the 150 billion yen loss it forecast on Nov. 26.

Black Blade
Iran's small Jewish minority celebrates Passover festival
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020404/ap_wo_en_ge/iran_jews_1
Snippit:

SHIRAZ, Iran - As members of Iran's tiny Jewish community celebrated the festival marking the biblical delivery of Jews from slavery, others longed for 10 people imprisoned on charges of spying for Israel.

Black Blade: As posted a couple of days earlier.

Spartacus
Argentina
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1912000/1912144.stmIMF 'to ignore' Argentina cash plea

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is unlikely to release new funds to help Argentina's struggling economy, a report has said.
-----
IMF insiders said the fund's tough stance was backed by Horst Koehler and his new deputy, Anne Krueger.
-----
A formal announcement is not expected from the IMF until early May, after the political considerations of the board.


Black Blade
Smart Glass Knows When It Needs Another Beer
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=573&ncid=757&e=4&u=/nm/20020404/od_nm/glass_dc_1

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Drink up that beer -- another will soon be whisked to the table thanks to a hi-tech pint glass that tells bar staff when it needs refilling.

Developed by a Japanese electronics company, the intelligent glass is fitted with a radio-frequency coil in its base and emits a signal to a receiver set in the table when it's empty, New Scientist magazine reported Thursday.

The iGlassware system works by coating each glass with a clear, conducting material, enabling it to measure exactly how much liquid has been sipped or guzzled. When empty, the glass sends an electronic cry for more beer from the table to waiters equipped with hand-held computers on frequencies similar to those used by mobile phones.


Black Blade: Oh Yeah!!! I'm making my Christmas list.

Black Blade
Iran Supreme Leader Wields Oil Embargo Threat - BBC

MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Iran 's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called on Islamic oil-producing countries to suspend their exports to "pro-Israel" western states, the BBC reported on its Web site Friday.

"Arab governments can use oil as a weapon. They can cut off the flow of oil to all the countries which have good ties with Israel ," Khamenei said in a sermon during the Friday Prayers in Tehran .

Khamenei said that exports should be stopped "for a symbolic period of one month."...


Black Blade: If Iran cuts off oil it's certain that Iraq and possibly Libya will follow.
Boilermaker
Mr Gresham's Disappearing Derivatives
http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed14.htmlSeems like you'd be looking for the dumbest guy in the room to offload to. Or maybe the most corrupt. Or both. My bet would be the ESF or some other government operation. But that's just a hunch since I really don't understand derivatives.
Black Blade
Glimmer of hope in Middle East keeps gold subdued
http://www.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9628658-0.html?tag=ats
Snippit:

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - European gold struggled above $300 an ounce on Friday morning as a glimmer of hope emerged in the Middle East and profit-taking appeared to have run its course, traders said.

Gold dipped below $300 in late European business on Thursday and did so in U.S. and Asian trading, after U.S. President Bush eased market fears by calling for a halt to Israel's drive in the West Bank. But dealers said the $300 barrier looked like holding as speculative buyers move in at lower numbers.

"We now need something new to push the market higher. The Middle East has been factored in to a certain extent, although Bush helped smooth fears yesterday. There has been some good physical buying in Asia and in Europe this morning which has helped it above $300," one dealer said.


Black Blade: Maybe Gold has support at $300.00/oz. Buy the dips to $300.00?
Spartacus
Robert Mundell
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/search/tgam/SearchFullStory.html&cf=tgam/search/tgam/SearchFullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&encoded_keywords=HEATHER+SCOFFIELD&option=☆t_row=2¤t_row=2☆t_row_offset1=#_rows=1&search_results_start=1
Nobel winner pushes single world currency By HEATHER SCOFFIELD Friday, April 5, 2002

Ottawa -- The world should move toward adopting a single currency system based on the U.S. dollar, Canadian Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell said yesterday.

Tommy P
ADDING to the BONE PILE
nickel62
Mr Gresham, I loved the website you posted of the "Yiddish Cultural Center" in Amherst
If the book center is as interesting as the web site commentary I can see why it has grown so tremendously. Thanks.
Belgian
Nice Coctail
Arabian oil calling for an embargo to Western-Israel supporters and Nobel prize winner Mundell calling for a single currency system based on the US$ !
As if an euro simply didn't exist !
Since the situation in the ME has NO peacefull solution...the present embargo (selective oil offer) is a prelude somewhat closer to oil for euro. Prof. Mundell feeling the heat threathening the dollar survival as reserve currency on an oil standard.
Arabian oil doesn't want the US to solve the 50 year old problem and favors an Euroland approach, without military force but rather a well "oiled" currency (euro)/gold - concept as pressure on Western hostiles with incompatable ambitions. Germany acts against the French euroblock, because of its alliance with Russia (gas+oil).

Sorry, Pof. Mundell, but y're a bit late with your single dollar-derivative currency !
RobotGuy
Slingshot - - - Thank you
Thank you for your ideas, and humouring my supposed waste of time, they were different than my ideas and it is very nice to hear someone else's ideas. I guess for me the excitement of possibly being right is similar to a guessing contest, but for the most part I do believe each of us has an inclination, however few are willing to share.
I can tell that you are an individual of stamina, and that a little informative guessing isn't going to destroy your day by the possibility of being wrong.
It was merely an interpretation that I was seeking, and it was an interpretation you provided.
You made my day!

RobotGuy.
Mr Gresham
nickel62: Yiddish Book Center
http://www.yiddishbookcenter.org/story.php?n=6My reaction was the same, and I forgot to mention it as you did. It is just such a clear example of intelligent people doing intelligent things in a situation of dire need, it deserves to be seen by anyone who appreciates such things.

I tried to visit while passing through the town but missed the closing time by an hour. I was permitted to stand in the central raised lobby and look out over the evidence of Hitler's final defeat. I find the idea of this place's existence thrilling, and I'm not even Jewish.

But I'm a guy who's still saddened by the loss of the Library at Alexandria 1600 years ago.

http://www.unesco.org/webworld/alexandria_new/index.html

I met some of the people with the tattooed numbers on their arms at times in my youth, and I'll never forget the wisdom they had to offer as Holocaust survivors. But their survival was personal and they mostly wanted to leave the past behind. It was left for their grandchildren to rediscover the culture they had left behind.

The fact is that Europe's Jewish culture was about to suffer a "second death", and Lansky and others prevented it. This is true heroism, in my book. (I don't know what other libraries, if any, were being preserved in Israel or elsewhere, but the sheer volume of Lansky's discoveries says that the "aftershock" of the Holocaust was still in effect.) As a life's work, this is something I could be proud of.

This should also be a lesson that if you feel drawn to do something you believe is right, but think conceptually you are not the "right person" (or don't have "standing", in the words of a certain Boston court), well, maybe you should go ahead and explore it just a little bit further...


"Number of distinct Jewish languages: 18
Age of Yiddish in years: 1,000
Approximate percentage of the world's Jews who, until 1939, spoke Yiddish as their first or only language: 75%
Number of Yiddish speakers in the world in 1939: 11,000,000
Percentage of all Yiddish speakers killed in the Holocaust: 50% ...
"Total number of Yiddish books that experts, meeting in 1980, estimated were still extant and recoverable in all of North America: 70,000
Total number of Yiddish books recovered by the National Yiddish Book Center in 1980 alone: 70,000
Yiddish books we've collected to date: 1.5 million ...
"Folios of mint-condition Yiddish and Hebrew sheet music we recovered from a garage in Boro Park, Brooklyn, in 1986: 85,000
Folios of mint-condition Yiddish and Hebrew sheet music we recovered from a warehouse beneath the Brooklyn Bridge in 1992: 75,000
"Significant Yiddish library collections that existed in all of North America when we opened our doors in 1980: 6
Major university and research libraries where we've established or strengthened Yiddish holdings today: 455 "





YGM
CNBC Talking Heads and other Economic Illiterati....
From New Australian article...Gerard Jackson sums it up in this qoute from his latest article in the New Austrailian.....

(Quote)

The more anyone is promoted by the media and the rest of the economic illiterati as an economic thinker the more likely it is that they are an economic illiterate peddling half-baked ideas guaranteed to impoverish people......unquote

How True!
GO GATA & "GO PHYSICAL"

:o)
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A fixed supply has its advantages.

Call USAGOLD / Centennial to discuss the investment strategy that's right for you.

TownCrier
Here's a collection of good reading for the weekend ahead
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_miner49er.htmlThanks again to Miner49er and to EVERYONE who provides their friends here with delving thoughts and discussion on gold, money and wealth.

R.
Waverider
NY gold stretches shakeout below $300 then steadies
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020405/markets_precious_13.htmlSnippit:
"COMEX gold dipped back below $300 an ounce for the first time in nine days early Friday on dealer selling and liquidation of safe-haven positions booked during this week of violence in the Holy Land.

But the market quickly reclaimed the psychological support level, still nervous about one of bloodiest episodes in the Mideast in years while the head winds remained forceful in an overbought market, dealers said.

``The action has been a little spasmodic this morning,'' said Donald Tierney of Pell Brothers Futures. ``For the moment, with still enough uncertainties in view, it appears that the $300 level will hold.''

``The daily studies are still unwinding from overbought,'' wrote JP Morgan Chase analyst in a technical commentary Friday. ``However, looking at the bigger picture, we believe this is merely a correction within the underlying bull trend which is targeting a move to and through the $308.50 previous high.''

Funds have shown surprising fortitude with their holdings, and even stepped in to purchase more during a drop Thursday which held at $300, where their bids were reinforced by physical demand from hoarders from India and the Mideast.

Waverider: ? JP Morgan Chase analyst sees POG moving through $308.50? A Good Day to All!
TownCrier
GOLD MARKET: "the head winds remained forceful" --Reuters
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020405/markets_precious_13.htmlExcerpts:

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - COMEX gold dipped back below $300 an ounce for the first time in nine days early Friday on dealer selling and liquidation of safe-haven positions booked during this week of violence in the Holy Land.

But the market quickly reclaimed the psychological support level, still nervous about one of bloodiest episodes in the Mideast in years while the head winds remained forceful in an overbought market, dealers said.

``The daily studies are still unwinding from overbought,'' wrote JP Morgan Chase analyst in a technical commentary Friday. ``However, looking at the bigger picture, we believe this is merely a correction within the underlying bull trend which is targeting a move to and through the $308.50 previous high.''
----(click URL for full article)----

More and more, the mainstream media are shedding their former anti-gold dispositions. Those with an eye to the realities of the physical market know its price (derived spot plus premium) has the potential to explode higher with very little warning should it happen that more people pay heed to the world around them and simply seek modest diversification. Further, any serious investment interest in gold ownership would likely very quickly reveal alternative "paper gold" as nothing more than paper which requires confidence and counterparty performance. Can you see how such items could rise early but then fall off a cliff even as physical gold swept onward and upward with increased momentum?

See my post yesterday (#: 72722). The European Central Bank (among others) is marking gold assets to market value -- and not by accident or without much forethought for the world ahead. Place your order with Centennial today and get your delivery in the pipeline.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
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sector
Telcos Lament Continues...There's NO Recession!
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020405/549205.html
April 5, 2002
Nortel's debt turns to junk
Moody's downgrades credit rating three notches as major borrowing deadline looms
Mark Evans
Financial Post

Jim Young, Reuters
Nortel's credit rating remains two notches higher than that of ...

Nortel Networks Corp. had its credit rating downgraded to junk status yesterday by Moody's Investors Services Inc., amid concerns that the sharp downturn of the telecommunications equipment market will likely last longer and be much more painful than previously expected.

+++++++++++++++++++++

BTW The unemployment numbers from last week have been revised upward...now the rate is 5.7%

Are we having FUN yet?

Oh yeah...almost forgot...for the first time since the 1930's dividends have fallen for three consecutive years. But we aren't in a recession. Nope...NO RECESSION!
YGM
Counterparty performance.....
Can you spell...."Default"Excert from previous T Crier post....

---interest in gold ownership would likely very quickly reveal alternative "paper gold" as nothing more than paper which requires confidence and counterparty performance.


***Pretty hard to have a default on what you can see, hold and hide!......In the case of public owned and traded CO.'s
which have major paper shorts & Derivative trade losses on the books, well we all know who gets left holding the bag. Not to mention they may be liable for debts/losses.....
Insiders like Brian Mulrooney/Barrick, and others too numerous to mention, have already found the lifeboats.
.....YGM.
RobotGuy
Slingshot
Well done! Your intuition was quite accurate! Gold closed today slightly under 300.
Truthcaster
Did gold hold on at 300?
What did gold end at? Did we hold the front lines at
300? I see here there's a post saying gold closed just
under 300, but bloomberg is showing it closed at 301.10
dwn. 90 cents. Good if it did.. Truthcaster
YGM
Next Week...
Cash on the sidelines....IMO,,,if ME crisis continues next week we'll see renewed buying from the specs as I imagine there was alot of cash already sitting and more acummulated on the sidelines this week. That kind of money does not sit idle long and the only reasonable bet is PM's......World full of uncertainty out there and smart money follows old money......YGM
RobotGuy
Truthcaster - - - Ahh yes, the age old question, what price is it really?
I was referring initially to my trusty .gif stolen from a popular gold web site, and it gave me 299.80, but after a quick glance at NYMEX, I saw another value of 301.10 for the most recent close. Now I really am not sure what it is sitting at.
Gandalf the White
Sir Robo's Question
RobotGuy (04/05/02; 12:44:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 72814)
Truthcaster - - - Ahh yes, the age old question, what price is it really?
==
You can choose any of the following --
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO
From the USAGOLD page --
Which shows: Bid $300.00 Ask $300.50 Last $300.50
--
http://informer2.comdirect.de/de/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sTimeframe=iD&useSettings=0&showSettings=&sid=&hiddenTimeFrame=&sOrdType=price&sScale=linear&sMarket=GLD.FX1&iType=1&sAv1=38&sAvfree1=&sAv2=200&sAv2free2=&sAv2count=1&iInd0=na&sBench1=na&sBenchcount=1&sBench2=&sBench2count=1&showBenchmarkSearch=&iInd1=na&iInd2=na&iIndcount=1&sSettings=na
===
WOWSERS--What a long link --- Perhaps because it is far far away in Germany ! <;-)
which shows: close at $300.10 and a graph !!!
----
OR
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/
and click on the Bullion -- Interactive Gold chart and see:
Bid $299.8 Ask $300.3 Last $299.8
===
OR
you could take a look at the often error ridden "K" chart !
NAW
--
Good luck
<;-)
Old Yeller
More from Stephen Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020405-fri.html#anchor0
Plus a very interesting commentary on the US dollar going forward.Congratulations to MSDW for speaking the unspeakable on Wall St.; the possibility of free liquidity moving to gold,both as a safe haven and as a poltical weapon to effect change.
CoBra(too)
@ Sector's - Coming Adjustments to CA Deficit -
By Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, whom I've had the honor to meet together with Byron Wien years back.

Thanks Sector for putting it up. I find those two Analysts are still down to earth and just want to highlight the gist of the statement again:

*** "The longer the day of reckoning is put off," writes Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, "the more severe the impacts of the adjustment process are likely to be." Roach is referring to America's coming current-account adjustment..."hints" of which, he says, "are already in the air."

*** Foreign capital inflows into the U.S. have slowed considerably in 2002. "In January, portfolio inflows into dollar-denominated assets slowed to just $11.3 billion, a marked deceleration from average monthly flows $44 billion recorded in 2001."

*** What should we expect if the trend continues? "As I see it," says Roach, "two aspects of America's looming current-account adjustment should be especially important [to financial markets] - weaker GDP growth and a falling dollar...A correction is coming, and there's no dark secret as to what that means. It's just a matter of when the denial finally cracks."

... I guess, it was Doug Noland, who has foreseen that portfolio inflows have to reach about 2 Billion $'s a day, just to keep up the status quo. Well now we have only about
1/3 of a Billion reaching the US shores, in order to shore up deteriorating CA. While Japanese, Europeans and others are accelerating their departure, as funds are increasingly needed at home.

Looks like High Noon for the goons at the FED - while they already try to rescue their bullion banking bums, scum or scams?

Whom do they wan'na kid? Me, You? cb2

CoBra(too)
@ Old Yeller
I got the liquor
but the Sheriff got it quicker ...

Similar thoughts across the big splash -
Regards - cb2
RobotGuy
Thank-you Gandalf, for the friday afternoon humour :)
TownCrier
Created by popular demand! (i.e., one client, but that's enough for me.)
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_index.htmlFrom time to time I have brought forth an individual "Golden Chalkboard" page as warranted by events or discussion topics. Until now, there was no easy way for anyone to revisit these pages unless they bookmarked them, explored the forum archives, or found them with an internet search engine.

Here now for the first time I have thrown together an INDEX. Although for future reference you won't find this dainty little nothing of a thing on the homepage, (it's not worthy), you will find it on our site map. Has anyone discovered the whereabouts of that yet? I can be quite handy at times for site navigation.

As the weekend draws nigh, I'll be sure to raise a toast to the good health of the first person I see that manages to find and post the link to our sitemap.

R.
TownCrier
oops -- "IT can be quite handy at times..."
The sitemap, that is. For "I" am never handy.

(Although I rhyme)

Randy
The CoinGuy
Hmmm...
TownCrier
CoinGuy
"May you live to be a thousand years, sir."

Randy
Belgian
Crude Oil
The symbolic and selective embargo-call, expressed by Iran
is a different beast than what happened in the 1970-ties (1974 ATH) ! With Nixon having closed the dollar/Gold-window, POO was revaluating the dollar-reserve-currency WITHOUT having the present euro-alternative. The dramatic surge in POO was indiscriminate and the whole globe suffered from this renewed price-setting. Today, a total economic sanction is NOT wanted ! It is not the dollar as such that is targeted but rather the government behind that dollar and more precisely its (gvnmt) ME policy. This new way of "selective" oil-threath must be the result of inclination versus the euro and TG's concept.

But Iran's statement is only a post factum explanation of what already had been done : POO from 16$ to the 22$-28$ price zone. And therefore to be interpreted as a warning for more of the same if nothing changes drastically on the Palestinian question. The attitude of Russian (private) oil is of course an unknown. But they go/follow where the profit is ! Ties between Russia and Iran are re-inforced.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia play their double cross game and Iraq is probably winning time. Next week we have to decode a possible Blair briefing on his Texas visit.

The geo-political waves are a nice playing field for the speculators on oil/gold futures. Does Arafat AND Sharon want to lure US forces (instead of UN) into Israel ?
Israel can't face its economic reality without the permanent aid from the US. That's why peace will never happen in Israel (unfortunately). UK citizens start to question the closeness of UK politics (support) with the US ! The whole Israel problem is functioning as a polirazator between the pro and contra blocks. Oil-dollar-euro and therefore Gold are surfing these waves, again, with the euro as third party (newcomer).

The euro (concept) must be the only reason that the ME isn't attacking the dollar directly with the Gold weapon !
Gold Giants could induce dollar-hyperinflation instantly with the Gold canon. But then they are disturbing and jeopardizing the outside US dollar-reserves policies !
And this was not planned ! An organized, fast dollar crash would make it impossible to compensate dollar-reserve losses with Gold-reserves appreciation for the euro allies who are not yet ready. China exports wants to profit as long as possible from a stable (strong) dollar.

Nice weekend to all.
Black Blade
Japan's Debt Squad Battles Govt Inertia, Gangsters
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APK0QyBTcSmFwYW4n
Snippit:


Tokyo, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Japanese government's debt collecting agency has 20 officers trained in martial arts and small arms, a vital skill when much of the $33 billion it aims to recover was lent to yakuza gangsters. Japan's mafia isn't the only clique the Resolution and Collection Corp. is finding hard to crack.

The banks aren't disposing of their bad debts because to do so on a significant basis would bankrupt them, the RCC said. Banks ``don't want to realize losses because they will become insolvent,'' said Kurihara. ``There would have to be an injection of public money'' to keep lenders solvent.

And collection is getting more difficult.

``There are lots of mob loans,'' said Kurihara. ``The yakuza bought real estate. The mortgage is with the failed financial institution and we have bought the mortgage from them. The private sector doesn't want to collect the money.''

Debt Busters

That's where the debt squad comes in. The 20-person unit -- seconded from Japan's police force -- specializes in collecting loans from potentially violent customers.


Black Blade: So the bankers come to break your kneecaps. Hmmm�

As always, get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program started.
TownCrier
Thanks for the comments, Belgian
Sample:
"The dramatic surge in POO was indiscriminate and the whole globe suffered from this renewed price-setting. Today, a total economic sanction is NOT wanted ! It is not the dollar as such that is targeted but rather the government behind that dollar and more precisely its (gvnmt) ME policy."
---
Nice work as always. You're aces in my book.

Randy
USAGOLD
Belgian. . .
Thanks for your recent posts -- some interesting ideas.

How would you rank the reasons for the Welteke gold gaffes of late between. . . .

1. A desire to drive down the price of gold

2. Angling for a piece of the next Washington Agreement annual allotment

3. Bailing out one or more German banks

Or do you have list of your own?

Also, I wonder what this sort of thing does to the "fabric" of the EU and the ECB. After all, I do not believe the French would have ever believed that their primary partner would be a gold seller. Welteke's gold comments certainly took most of the gold world by surprise given German history and currency policy since WWII -- a departure to say the least from the old days of a solid D-mark with gold in the background to make it stick. Cobra Too mentioned to me in private conversation that the conservative party in Germany looks for very good for the upcoming election -- one wonders if this could become a campaign issue.
USAGOLD
All. . .
By the way, I invite comments, observations, etc from any and all on the Bundesbank/Welteke situation -- particularly our European posters.
YGM
From the Daily Reckoning.....
Omitted as per the rules.......Interesting Stats tho!!Business


Dear Daily Reckoning Reader,

"The Arabs have a saying," John Myers tells me, "Trust in Allah,
but make sure you tie up your camel." In short, things aren't
what they seem. And right now -- you're not getting the whole
story behind one of this year's biggest headlines: the growing
conflict in the Middle East.



Every year for the past two decades the oil industry has pumped
more oil than it has discovered. Over the 1990s, that trend
accelerated. Oil companies drained more than 3 times what
they've even found. John's "little black book" contains a host
of these gems...

* Today's oil estimates don't take into account 2 billion
barrels of Kuwaiti oil burned by Iraq in 1991.

* Not one super-giant oil field has been discovered since
Prudhoe Bay. That was 33 years ago.

* Yet OPEC recently added 287 billion barrels to their official
reserve tallies in a single year -- without making a single new
oil discovery... that's more oil than we've ever discovered in
the United States -- plus 40% (what's going on there?!).

* Today a terrific oil field will yield 250,000 barrels per day.
The United States alone burns through that much oil in a little
under three hours!

Industry secrets like these make the developing Middle East
crisis all the more tense for everyone involved.

Fact is, despite being the lifeblood of the economy... the oil
"reserves" are anything but the stable supply you are led to
believe. Therein lies the secret. Insider knowledge like this is
how oil industry execs make a killing when a crisis develops.
silvester
YGM and Daily Reckoning article


If I were an Arab and my primary export(oil) provided my only source of income, I would be very concerned about accepting 27 paper dollars per barrel.

What would my kids and grandkids do for income when the oil is gone? It's not like they have many options. The Arabs sell oil. It's all they have. We have used a lot of it up and continue to do so at a much faster rate than most of the world.

How long will they continue to take only $27? How long will that paper last?

I think he's right YGM. Lot more to it than we hear.
Jin-Yin
Israel Nationhood
I received this by e-mail and just throwing it out to the board. There are a few questions that come to mind after reading it, like who was the territory taken from to establish a Jewish Nation in 1312 BCE. Where did the non-Arab refugees that existed previous to any influx come from or how long have their ancestors been living in the territory. Anyway there are some interesting facts.
__________

Many free people who live in democratic countries, particularly Americans, are confused by what's happening between Israel and Yasser Arafat. This confusion is generally caused by a lack of historical understanding about this region. I hope you find the following useful in developing your own informed views of this difficult situation.

SO, HERE ARE THE BRIEF, INDISPUTABLE FACTS ON THE ISRAELI CONFLICT
TODAY...

Takes just 1.5 minutes to read! It makes sense and it's not slanted. Jew and non-Jew ... it doesn't matter. Please read.

1. Nationhood and Jerusalem - Israel became a nation in 1312 BCE, two thousand years before the rise of Islam.

2. Arab refugees in Israel began identifying themselves as part of a Palestinian people in 1967, two decades after the establishment of the modern State of Israel.

3. Since the Jewish conquest in 1272 BCE the Jews have had dominion over the land for one thousand years with a continuous presence in the land for the past 3,300 years.

4. The only Arab dominion since the conquest in 635 CE lasted no more than 22 years.

5. For over 3,300 years, Jerusalem has been the Jewish capital. Jerusalem has never been the capital of any Arab or Muslim entity. Even when the Jordanians occupied Jerusalem, they never sought to make it their capital, and Arab leaders did not come to visit.

6. Jerusalem is mentioned over 700 times in the Tanach, the Jewish Holy Scriptures. Jerusalem is not mentioned once in the Koran.

7. King David founded the city of Jerusalem. Mohammed never came to Jerusalem.

8. Jews pray facing Jerusalem. Muslims pray with their backs toward Jerusalem.

9. Arab and Jewish Refugees - In 1948 the Arab refugees were encouraged to leave Israel by Arab leaders promising to purge the land of Jews. Sixty-eight percent left without ever seeing an Israeli soldier.

10. The Jewish refugees were forced to flee from Arab lands due to Arab brutality, persecution and pogroms.

11. The number of Arab refugees who left Israel in 1948 is estimated to be around 630,000. The number of Jewish refugees from Arab lands is estimated to be the same.

12. Arab refugees were INTENTIONALLY not absorbed or integrated into the Arab lands to which they fled, despite the vast Arab territory. Out of the 100,000,000 refugees since World War II, theirs is the only refugee group in the world that has never been absorbed or integrated into their
own peoples' lands. Jewish refugees were completely absorbed into Israel, a country no larger than the state of New Jersey.

13. The Arab - Israeli Conflict - The Arabs are represented by eight separate nations, not including the Palestinians. There is only one Jewish nation. The Arab nations initiated all five wars and lost. Israel defended itself each time and won.

14. The PLO's Charter still calls for the destruction of the state of Israel. Israel has given the Palestinians most of the West Bank land, autonomy under the Palestinian Authority, and has supplied them with weapons.

15. Under Jordanian rule, Jewish holy sites were desecrated and the Jews were denied access to places of worship. Under Israeli rule, all Muslim and Christian sites have been preserved and made accessible to people of all faiths.

16. The UN Record on Israel and the Arabs - Of the 175 Security Council resolutions passed before 1990, 97 were directed against Israel.

17. Of the 690 General Assembly resolutions voted on before 1990, 429 were directed against Israel.

18. The U.N was silent while 58 Jerusalem Synagogues were destroyed by the Jordanians.

19. The U.N. was silent while the Jordanians systematically desecrated the ancient Jewish cemetery on the Mount of Olives.

20. The U.N. was silent while the Jordanians enforced an Apartheid-like policy of preventing Jews from visiting the Temple Mount and the Western Wall.

These are incredible times. We have to ask what our role should be. What will we tell our grandchildren we did when there was a turning point in Jewish destiny, an opportunity to make a difference?
TownCrier
Another nation's gaffe is our seigniorage...and inflationary burden to bear?
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/05/rtr561128.htmlHEADLINE: Crumpled bills lead Ecuador to offer "gold" US coin

QUITO, Ecuador (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar may be one of the world's strongest currencies, but the greenback has lost a battle in Ecuador to the newer gold dollar coin due to locals' habit of crumpling paper bills.

The Andean nation adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2000 to halt spiraling inflation and the devaluation of its local sucre currency amid the worst economic crisis in decades.

...The Central Bank, tired of having to ship tattered bills north to exchange them for fresh dollars, plans to put 5 million of the U.S. gold dollar coins into circulation starting April 15.
------(click URL for full article)--------

You know how the banking system works. Whenever the people, government, and corporations in this inflation-prone country seek to borrow money from their network of banks, they will effectively be creating U.S. dollars.

Gold for savings. Need I say more?

R.
TownCrier
A sea-change in reporting, public sentiment sure to be not far behind.
http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=46653HEADLINE: Middle East crisis sets off rush into gold market

London (Reuters) 06-04-2002: The Middle East's plunge into turmoil has driven gold prices towards their highest for more than two years as investors scramble for a safe home for their money, analysts said on Friday.

...Bullish gold fundamentals, including falling supplies from mines worldwide and a reluctance by producers to sell unmined nuggets in forward markets, has also underpinned the rally.

Analysts now wonder if the precious metal is about to enjoy the investor limelight after years of taking a backseat when stock markets boomed, the dollar was mighty and gold appeared to be an investment tool from a distant age.

"There's more interest being seen in gold now than in the last 15 years. There's been a mind-set change," said Peter Hillyard, senior manager at ANZ Investment Bank.

..."Gold is absolutely flying...physical buying is extremely good. The Middle East has unsettled people's thoughts of a stable political and economic environment," said Ross Norman, analyst at TheBullionDesk.
------

Unlike the popping of a speculative investment bubble in which prices fall when confidence is lost, what we shall likely see is a reverse -- the popping of the bullion banking illusion that there is adequate physical gold to satisfy all claims against it. Prices will soar for metal in hand. Believe it.

R.
sector
Gold Derivatives "Drop", Other "Drops" and the Deval Thing
The Importance of MS's Roach and his coming currency "Adjustment"Morgan dropped their gold derivatives by $19 Billion to $7 Billion, CitiBank followed by halving theirs to $7 Billion and we wait on Chase's future actions[Although JPM has conjoined their OCC reporting of late].

These gold shorters have reduced their positions in a big way. To whom they have shifted their risk is an important unanswered question. The logical recipient is the Fed. Thus, they "Borrowed" gold and sold it to amass their $60 Billion aggregate position [At its peak] and now somehow have "returned" the gold to "Cancel" their short derivatives. It seems reasonable that the Fed will "Cancel" any physical obligations they may have in the future since they can't possible cover all their gold banking and "loaning" activity with physical metal.

Is this the only problem the Fed has? Well, there is the currency destabilizating current account deficit Then there is JPMs interest rate derivative mountain [Firmly inked to the price of gold]. JPM has dropped their IRDs by $4 Trillion in the latest OCC report. So we can guess that there is a coordinated [If not crash] effort under way to reduce gold-related risk at the largest Fed banks.

The risk to the Fed's banks is the likelihood of a gold price rise.

That event happens in only two ways (1)the Treasury decides [At some random moment] to cease selling gold [A "devaluation" ostensibly to assist US manufacturers in becoming more competitive] and (2) the Treasury is overwhelmed by spiking gold demand which precipitously drains its remaining gold stocks.

The deval is estimate at 19% from Fed reports of past deval events. But that is too weak. Too weak because Mr. Greenspan hasn't told the governors about everything and thus at the eleventh hour the 19% will become 30% to cover the skeletons he has hidden.

Gold will overnight be trading 19% [30% If I'm right] higher. POG =$360 to $420.

That a deval must happen is virtually certain.

The essential question is will gold get away from the Fed once the move is made? After all, there is no shortage of danger in the world.

NORTH OF 49
(No Subject)
test
Privateer
The Treasury's Debt limit
http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/02040400.txtAs of April 4, the Treasury has hit its debt limit

Limit: $US 5,950,000,000,000
Debt Subject To Limit: $US 5,949,975,000,000

Note that the level is now $25,000,000 short of the limit. Back in 1996, Mr Rubin stopped Treasury debt growth precisely $US 25,000,000 short of the then debt limit and kept it there for weeks. Mr O'Neill is certainly following Mr Rubin's recipe to the letter.
YGM
Silvester
Paper for Oil or Gold for Oil?I think if you read in depth the posts of Another and FOA which are here linked at USA Gold (I'm in a hurry w/ this note BTW) you will find clues as to which they recieve more of. Many of the more conversant posters here could give you a much better sense of that than I. However I believe some Arab Nations have refused the US $$ in payment...Hope this helps....Back tommorrow....YGM.
Mr Gresham
sector: overnight devaluation
I think you've nailed it once more. I don't understand the supposed derivatives drop, except as part of the context for an overnight POG shift that attempts to balance the Fed's position in fiat/gold at a level it estimates (via minmax gaming outcome calcs plugged into its econometric models) as defensible for at least a usable interval going forward.

Overnight, indeed, is the corresponding discontinuous move to the low-volatility "stability" we have experienced these past frustrating/patient years. And the defenestrating of the chart-followers who wait for a "confirmation" of the bull market. The physical "fools" will smile their private smiles and the rest will compose their rationalizations. In this case "better a year too early than a day too late" will prove the perfect maxim.

We'll have years and years following to poke and examine and explain the new economic landscape (hey -- most of us didn't know that things changed in 1971, did we? -- and how many years afterward has it taken for 1971 to become a known point in our econ history?) that others will still be floundering to adjust themselves to.

"Day after day, alone on a hill
The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still.
And nobody wants to hear him,
they can tell what he wants to do.
And he never shows his feelings,
but the Fool on the Hill sees the sun going down
And the eyes in his head see the world spinning 'round."

(I think this might have been one of FOA's selections for us, if he had been of the "Beatles generation".)

"Like a thief in the night..."
Sierra Madre
A few thoughts for the weekend

1. Bush Sr. was a great hero of the war against Iraq, and thought it was he who pulled together a great alliance against the "New Hitler" Saddam - whom he never deigned to mention by his full name and title.

During that war, he steadily refused any "linkage" of the issue of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, with the observance of Resolution 142 of the UN, calling for Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories. "First, we deal with Saddam. When that is over, we'll talk about Israel and the Palestinians."

The war ended and Bush Sr. had a terrific popularity rating.

Then, he declared that a U.S. guarantee covering $10 billion in borrowings by Israel, would not be forthcoming.

James Baker III, Sec. of State, received an insulting treatment on his visit to Israel.

Things began to fall apart. The election was coming, and Bush Sr.'s popularity began to plunge. The media were all over him for "It's the Economy, Stupid!".

Bush Sr., having saved Israel from the Iraqi threat, thought he could now strongly influence Israel and settle the problem of the occupied territories. Talks in Madrid.

How wrong he was! Everything was coming up roses for Bush Sr., until he made the big mistake of thinking it was he who put together the great Western Alliance against Iraq, and that he could call the shots for Israel.

At the height of his popularity, I saw what he was doing and said to all who would listen: "George Bush Sr. will NOT be re-elected." No one believed me. They believed the polls.

Well, you know what happened.

2. Is the same story to be repeated in the case of Bush, Jr.? Looks like it to me.

There are just too many sympathizers of Israel in positions of great influence in the U.S., for Bush to adopt a policy contrary to Israeli objectives. That there might be a purge of these people from those positions, in totally unthinkable.

Bush Jr.'s popularity rating is today up in the high 80's. Watch for that rating to fall like a rock in the coming days.

I do not think Bush Jr. will be re-elected.

3. There will be a period of calm and hope in the next couple of weeks. But it will be based on false bases. Nothing is going to change in the Israeli-Palestinian problem. Look for a possible "terrorist attack" on U.S. soil, to allow the Israelis to move again.

Gold and oil will fall in value during this period. An opportunity to buy gold cheaply.

4. There will be no "one-month selective embargo of oil shipments to pro-Israeli countries". Iran and Iraq may attempt this, but nothing will come of it but losses of dollars for those countries. They will cave. There will be no war by a union of Moslem countries against Israel.

5. Things will get worse for the Palestinians. Much worse. The world, the UN, Europe, will groan about it, but nothing will be done. Israel will probably, in my opinion, carry out a massive "ethnic cleansing". It has been done before. The Turks drove out - how many hundreds of thousands? - of Greeks from eastern Turkey back in the 20's. Massive death toll. Nobody stopped them.

6. Oil flows will continue. In 3/5 years, the Palestinians will be forgotten. Israel will have triumphed.

7. The financial problems of the U.S. are not going to go away, nor can they be solved. The U.S. is in the process of destroying itself, or at least, it is its own worst enemy. Gold will reassert itself, as we all expect it to, because it is not a military problem, it is a financial reality that cannot be dissipated. Roach of Morgan Stanley has spoken truthfully.

8. When countries sink, if the sinking is gradual no one notices it much and few have the clarity of vision necessary to understand the underlying causes. So people become impoverished slowly, and their memories being short, they cannot really compare their previous well-being with present conditions. So they just go along, as best they can.
This is going to happen to the Japanese. Very, very few will buy gold. Of course, those very few may be sufficient to cause a permanent important rise in the price of gold.

And the same will happen to Joe Six Pack. All men are not created equal, some are smarter than others. The political result of '29 and the 30's for the U.S., was an opportunity for an FDR to carry out a revolution. No such opportunity, from the Left or from the Right, will be available in these times. Depression will come, but it will be denied by the Media. So, Joe Six Pack will just think it's his own bad luck. No political cohesion will be possible, among those down and out. Diverse groups may raise a ruckus, but they will be thrown a sop, and quiet down.

Pornography, drugs and hard rock will dull the minds of the young and strong. They will accept everything.

9. And so, let us watch the unfolding drama of our times, and take what precautions we may, by holding as much physical as we can. Never doubt for one instant, the wisdom of that approach. For we really KNOW only ONE THING: paper always has, and always will go to zero value eventually. We must act on that ONE THING THAT WE KNOW.

Have a happy weekend, all! We have a duty to be happy:

"Si fractus inlabatur orbis
Impavidum ferien ruinae" Horace 15 B.C.

"If the Universe should collapse upon us,
Unshaken we shall withstand its blows."

Sierra
Black Blade
Silvester � Arabs and oil

I think that the best way to describe that quandary is through an Arab saying about Arab reliance on this depleting asset. "My grandfather rode a camel, my father drove a car, I fly a jet, and my son will ride a camel".

Years ago before FDR confiscate US Gold, the Saudi region oil producers required payment in Gold to Aramco for oil concessions. However, this means of payment was suddenly in peril after the FDR confiscation. US oil companies got around this for a while by using Gold from other sources (such as British Gold Sovereigns). I used to have a link to this history but have lost it some time ago when I wiped my hard drive clean. Maybe some one here on this forum has a link to this Gold for Oil history. Cheers!

- Black Blade
DOWNUNDER
JIN- YIN - - - Your Post 72831 -- Israel Nationhood
Personally I found this message to be completely provocative and I wonder why you would post if it was not to put a one sided view over that you agreed with. To say you just received it by E/mail & just throwing it out on the board is a bit disingenuous --- especially when you finish by saying --"anyway there are some interesting FACTS."

For most of my 50 + years I have admired & supported Israel & always thought of them as a brave & resourceful people. However over recent years my views have changed to the point now where I view Israel as the real enemy of peace in the Middle East. People all over the world have seen how Israel has been treating the Palestinians. The Israeli Government has been taking their land, bulldozing their houses & allowing the most rabid extremist Jews to continue with the spreading out off their settlements.

This is not a good look & while it is not all one sided the Israelis are being seen as the aggressors. The Palestinians mainly have stones to fight with against tanks, bulldozers & well-armed & trained soldiers. One can't help thinking that if the state of Israel was really wanting a lasting peace then it should start by pulling out of the extremist settlements & giving the land back to whom it belongs. Currently Israel is systematically smashing the Palestinian infrastructure needed to sustain even basic living standards. This is exactly what the bastard Indonesian jungle bunny soldiers did when they trashed Dili -- the capital of East Timor. Is no wonder that Palestinians resort to suicide bombings.

The following quote is from a post earlier this week - can't recall who said it but I concur :
"Israel is a nation born out of terrorism. After all, even Ariel Sharon was a member of the Irgun, a terrorist organization that murdered British citizens among others. He also gave orders for the attack on the USS Liberty where helpless unarmed US sailors were machine-gunned down in lifeboats (I thought that was rather cold-blooded myself). He also gave the order to slaughter men, women, and children in UN refugee camps in Southern Lebanon."

The US Government has not had the courage to tell Israel the truth. Israel should not be supported UNTIL it seeks a genuine and long-lasting peace with the Palestinians. Other US foreign policy is also suspect -they have many enemies. The American people are rightly patriotic --you have to stand by your country. However there is every reason why educated Americans should be yelling out about the way you are being used & abused by a rotten administration. They are TRAITORS indeed to have left the gaps they did in your Airport security allowing Sept 11 to happen. What a$$holes.
Hipplebeck
The public debt
Just to bring it into focus on a real life level,
Every child born in this country is starting off with a debt of over $20,000.
That's right.
Every one of us owes more than $20,000 on top of any personal debt we have run up.
If the government balances the budget from here on in, we will all have to pay $133 per month for the next 30 years to pay off what has already been spent. (at 7% interest).
Yes that's right.
For a family of four that's $532 a month.
Guided
Israel's Birth
Guess again. Israel is a nation born out of slavery. Delivered by God out of Egyptian slavery into their promised land. Read the record in scripture.
darkhorse
@everybody
Everybody has an opinion, and understandably quite a few of them have surfaced the past few days re: Israel and the Palestinians. I really don't believe too many people here (or ANYwhere in the general population) have enough personal experience to say who's the good guys and who's the bad guys. From what I've seen the past few weeks, and learned over my 40+ years, neither side has done anything that could objectively be taken as true strides toward a peaceful settlement. Oil or no oil, this conflict will go on. As someone pointed out the other day, these people have been at each other for centuries...to think that any modern day peace proposal will end everything is nothing more than naive arrogance (IMHO)! Leaders from both sides won a Nobel Peace prize a few years back...but to paraphrase Miss Jackson "What have you done for your people lately?" Both sides have committed unthinkable atrocities (unthinkable except to those that have been taught nothing but hate/self-preservation) upon the other. I don't believe anyone (person, group, nation...whatever) has the right to set out to destroy anyone else, but both sides have committed themselves to just that! Neither side will be happy until the other is gone...period! This latest session may very well get totally out of control despite the best efforts of those trying to end it. The fallout (hopefully no pun) if it does go from bad to worse could be very bad for more than just the US. Hope and pray for the best, but be responsible enough to do as much as you can to prepare for the worst.
Waverider
Gold Still Boiling in Oil
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/goldoil2.htmSnippit:
"In what seems like a century ago in terms of all the incredible financial market and geopolitical developments of recent years, I penned an essay on gold and oil way back in June 2000.

In my earlier essay, titled "Gold Boiling in Oil", we took a look at gold and oil in their historical price context and examined their very strong relationship over time. I arrived at the conclusion that the relatively high oil prices at the time were exerting substantial upward pressure on gold prices, that ice-cold gold was heating up as it was trapped in the bottom of a great cauldron of boiling oil.

So, during this seemingly fitting time after a geopolitically-breathtaking couple of weeks, we decided to update our key gold and oil comparison graphs to see if the intricate dance between the gold and oil markets is ready to yield any more secrets now than it was way back in June 2000."

Waverider: Another excellent and timely read from Adam Hamilton - enjoy!
Black Blade
YGM � Oil Reserves and Declining Projection

I have addressed this issue over the years and here over the last couple of years or so. But your post from the "Daily Reckoning" is essentially correct. Each new Giant (reserves of 1 billion bbl/day not "Super Giant" of 5 to 10 billion bbl/day) oil field found over the last 50 years has been progressively smaller. Roughly 120 of the largest oil fields produce about half of the worlds oil. The average age of the largest (Super Giants) is 43.5 years (Matthew Simmons, 2002).

Consider that there have been no new oil fields that produce more than 250,000 bbl/day (most of those are deep and ultra-deep water), yet the world's largest 19 Super Giants produce more than 500,00 bbl/day though they have an average age of about 70 years. And most of these fields are in various stages of decline � in other words they have already reached their "Hubbert Peak" (named after M. King Hubbert). The last two Super Giants with production over 1 million bbl/day that were discovered were Alaska's Prudhoe Bay in 1968 and Mexico's Cantarell Field in 1976. That's it! Since the 1970's all the new discoveries supply only a miniscule 13% of the world's daily production and new discoveries have been declining since the 1960's.

Of course this discussion does not consider recoverable oil or "Cheap Oil" which is necessary for fueling a robust economy. If the concept of "Cheap Oil" is ignored then we could conclude that there is enough oil for many decades. This is especially true is we consider the combination of Tar Sands, Heavy Crude Sludge, Oil Shale, Biofuels, natural gas liquids (NGL), etc.).

The point is that all the "Super Giants" and possibly "Giants" have been discovered. That is because they are obviously the easiest to find. Each successive discovery has been smaller than the previous discovery. All US Super Giant oil fields are in decline (including Alaska's Prudhoe Bay). Recently the North Sea Oil Field has been projected to have reached it's Hubbert Peak production and is now in decline. It is suspected that the Saudi Ghawar Field is close to reaching its Hubbert Peak projection (production data is a closely held secret). Interesting is that once a field reaches its Hubbert peak it then production declines rapidly. Of course with declining drilling activity and without a drilling boom in the works, it is very unlikely that we will have enough smaller fields to replace declining supply from Giant and Super Giant oilfields in future years. Immediate and long term prospects for "Cheap Energy" look rather grim.

- Black Blade

Resource:

Simmons, M. R., The World's Giant Oilfields, Hubbert Center Newsletter #2002/1. January 2002

Mr Gresham
Israel
Wow! As usual, Sierra has gotten some great points in, and gotten me going again. I was gonna take the night off...oh well.

From the lay, non-Jewish American's point of view, Israel was born out of the photographs of the death camp survivors, and the heaps of bones, ashes, and remnants of the dead. It has taken us decades to integrate the shock of this history into our lives in this world. But it did not take us long to conclude that this people's survivors deserved a home as safe as any of us had at present.

Israel's military was born out of the memory of the helpless ghetto inhabitants quarantined, then rounded up with no weapons, no defenders to stop the Gestapo's goon squads, and sent to die. "This will never happen again." was a response we could all identify with. Young Jews who acted out that response seemed heroic. Any of us would hope to have done the same. (The cause they were then enlisted in might be more questionable, but perhaps inevitable.)

Israel's politics was born out of a staunch resolve never to trust the world's nations again, even the above-stated sympathies to never let Jews be in peril again. Israel will imprison Vanunu, who reveals its nuclear arsenal. Israel will influence US politics and elections, spy on US policymaking, attack the USS Liberty -- in a fanatic devotion to its own survival. Understandable in its ruthlessness -- but therefore tolerable?

Meanwhile, politicians arise, as in any society. "I can advance myself by seizing upon these issues, these fears, these sympathies." Chameleonlike, will adapt to whatever history has propelled them into nationhood. Ideals aside, it is power that rules them. The evidence is in their deeds.

Getting Israel to act in its own long-term best interests -- this is the observer's dilemma. Calculations are made from different platforms; mine is not theirs. I can see theirs; but I must still speak from mine.

The Palestinians were not the evil enemy that threatened Israel's survival, certainly not since 1967. But Israel -- understandably -- came into existence PRIMED for such a second enemy. Palestinians had been the most likely COOPERATING neighbor for Israel among Arabs, most likely to help economic development, AND acceptance into the Arab neighborhood, after the initial war faded away.

Not an enemy, but they were a "competitor" for the same lands. Which some saw as lands for the taking. And what example did Israel have before them. "Where are the Jews of Europe now?" Germany is largely "Judenfrei", only 45,000 left out of millions gone, 50 years later. Never to come back. They see that people CAN be cleared out of spaces, and time will pass. And grass will grow over the graves. (Having been done to them, some may even think the world "owes them one.") That can set a policy course, unable to be spoken, but just as determined upon.

That is what we are seeing today.

Jews have taught the world more about Conscience, perhaps, than any other people, paying the highest price as its teachers. Conscience may seem like a weak second to tanks and bomber squadrons. But if we all speak -- and they act -- from what we have learned, perhaps we can help this resolve, as other "eternal" conflicts have recently resolved, in some way other than a Final Solution, that will tarnish the name "Israel" with a sadness that will be centuries in the dispelling.




Belgian
@ USAGOLD /All : Welteke's Gold (threath)
Wim Duisenberg - ECB Press Conference :

He (WD) iterated the "very sensible matter" in wich CBs sell(sell=?) Gold under the CB Gold Agreemenet (WA) and commented that any future sales (leasings-reschuffles) by current (! more/less later)signatories would certainly not (NOT) be until the expiry of the current Agreement in 2004 !!!! (WGC)

A German faction is in support of the US$ for God knows what reason. Balkan / Russia common agenda (military) ? German dollar-investments in US � la Daimler Chrysler and impact on Deutsche Bank ? Disagreement with the Euroland euro/gold/oil concept (Russian oil/gas) ? Still on the look out for clues indicating the direction to look for.

1/ A desire to drive down (consolidate) the POG is a pro US$ stance and not a Goldsale pro !
2/ Next WA allotment (2004) is too late for relief to the present problems of unemployment (Elections-sept.'02).
3/ Bailing out (support) Deutsche Bank ? Possible, but impossible to know ! cfr. Nobody (except few insiders) knew about the Holzmann debacle for years !!! Any kind of suspicion is perfectly camouflaged and covered (see Enron-new culture of selfdelusion).

That there is a German Gold-Problem is clear ! Duisenberg W.
called for : Order ! Reassuring !?
Not ALL Eurolanders are Gold minded and desire to use the ancient Gold reserves for immediate relief and political support rather than backing the euro/gold-concept. Remember the discussion on 15% or 30% Gold-reserves. Gold's immense power is anti-social ! And talking about Gold in Euroland, automatically splits the pro and contra's in two camps.
Plunderers for immediate profit and Savers Long Term Stability. And it is exactly this same diversion that pops up each time the Gold word (reserves) is mentioned. Ahhghh Democraty...(Swiss referendum)!?

If next ECB presidency can't be given to the French Gold-Lovers (German opposition), the lilliputan Belgian alternative (compromis) presidency is also a quasi guarantee for (liberal) Gold sympathy !?

Sorry for not being able to offer more facts (certainties) on the matter.
Black Blade
US drilling activity resumes its downward spiral
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=140386

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Apr. 5 -- US drilling activity declined this week, wiping out last week's gain that was the first after 9 weeks of straight losses, officials of Baker Hughes Inc., Houston, reported Friday. There were 738 rotary rigs drilling in the US and its waters this week, 23 fewer than last week when there was a gain of 11 units. A year ago at this time, the US rig count was at 1,200 and still climbing.

This week's losses were in the usual areas�land and natural gas drilling. There were 613 land rigs working in the US this week, 21 less than last week. The number of units drilling inland waters was up 2 to 15. But the number of rigs drilling in the US offshore sector was down 4 to 110. That included 107 working rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, down 2 from last week. The total number of US rotary rigs drilling for natural gas was down by 18 to 591 this week. There were 145 rigs drilling for oil, a decrease of 5. Another 2 active rigs were unclassified.


Black Blade: Without replenishing reserves the domestic market is in peril and energy independence in extremely unlikely. The US is likely to be held hostage to Middle east oil from here on out. It is "Cheap Energy" that fuels the economy. It won't take much if one major ME oil producer decides to "punish" the western economies.
Black Blade
Bush's push for Middle East peace dampens energy prices
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=140328Market watch: Bush's push for Middle East peace dampens energy prices

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Apr. 5 -- Energy futures prices fell sharply Thursday as strong talk from President George W. Bush fanned hopes of at least a ceasefire in the Middle East. Traders were encouraged by Bush's demand that Israel withdraw its forces from Palestinian territories and by his decision to send US Sec. of State Colin Powell to the region.

The first bearish reports of US petroleum inventories from both the American Petroleum Institute and the US Department of Energy in several weeks also accelerated downward momentum from Wednesday's trading session, analysts said. Price declines during the 2 days wiped out most of the increases earlier this week, bringing energy futures back near their pre-Easter levels.


Black Blade: This is a temporary measure as inventories have been in a general downward trend, even with Russian quota cheating. We now enter into the so-called "driving season" when traditionally gasoline use begins to rise and fuel prices start to rise. "Thankfully" this is not inflationary as it is not calculated in the "core rate" (dripping sarcasm). .

Mr Gresham
Fed tightening ahead?
http://www.pimco.com/bonds_commentary_fedfocus_recent_index.htmDon't miss this great Pimco read on the Fed's operating system overall, including the Continental bank run.
Mr Gresham
"Dead Presidents"
I wonder how many Americans think Franklin ($100) was a President?
Black Blade
The Rise and Fall of "Hydro-Carbon Man" (Reprise)
The following is a repost that I put forth on this forum quite some time ago. In light of recent events I repost it here. There have been some changes in Oil and Gold prices, however, the premise remains the same.

The Rise and Fall of "Hydro-Carbon Man" (Reprise)

HYDRO-CARBON MAN:

The modern industrial economy is dependent on cheap oil. Cheap oil has fueled the industrial age and has advanced modern man to what can best be described as the age of "Hydro-Carbon Man." Yes, there is evolution, as man evolved from the hunter-gather and agrarian society to the heavy industry of modern society. It was crude oil that gave rise to heavy industry, efficient mechanized transportation, increased out-put of goods and services, and has become vital for modern agriculture. But how long can Hydro-Carbon Man continue without cheap oil?

The question is not whether, but rather when cheap world crude oil productivity will begin to decline bringing about the long awaited "permanent oil shock." Demand for cheap oil continues to increase, all the while, the world's population continues to grow. The real problem of course, is when the production of oil peaks while demand continues to increase and the world's population continues to grow unabated. Emerging economies that are entering into the industrial age will also demand their share of oil. Oil was the principal fuel powering the "Asian Tigers" economic growth. A booming US economy continues to consume ever-increasing amounts of oil.

It was the abundance of cheap oil gave rise to "Hydro-Carbon Man ". Oil and its refined products allowed "Hydro-Carbon Man" to expand his productivity several fold. Now Hydro-Carbon Man's existence is threatened by the limitations of "cheap oil". Like a drug addict who suddenly has to face a very high price for his fix, Hydro-Carbon Man is about to learn the realities of life without an abundance of "cheap oil". Oil is the primary energy source for the world's economies and now we are faced with the limited ability to increase production of "cheap oil" and continue fueling future economic growth.

When the price of petroleum rose in the past it has had profound effects on the economy. Since oil is a vital commodity for everything from energy, to petrochemicals, to plastics, and to agriculture, it is perfectly understandable that high oil prices have resulted in economic recession. Gold and Silver prices generally increased in dollar terms as the effects of higher petroleum prices filter through the economy. Every postwar economic recession has been preceded by sudden oil price increases. In 1973 prices tripled in response to an Arab oil embargo as punishment for the western nations support of Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict. In 1979, prices nearly doubled when the Shah was dethroned in Iran and the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Oil prices rocketed to over $40.00/bbl during the 1990 Gulf War. The major economies went into a tail-spin and suffered through major recessions. These were only temporary disruptions to the economy. The coming oil crunch is not going to be so temporary. Gold and silver prices increased in the past as recession and inflation (stagflation) followed those oil shocks. Precious metals will rise in value in the coming oil shock as well. If we learn anything from our past, it should be that history does repeat time and again (my apologies to philosopher George Santayana).

WORLD OIL SUPPLY:

The first thing that one must remember is that the problem is not how much oil is left, but rather how much oil is recoverable, and more importantly, how much is economically recoverable. Secondly, what is perhaps more important is what happens when production no longer increases or worse, tapers off, while demand increases. Thirdly, the question arises whether or not non-conventional oil, alternative energy sources, new technology, and energy conservation measures can make up for the dwindling conventional oil reserves.

How did we get to the point where we risk not being able to produce sufficient oil? The member nations of OPEC have attempted to act in concert to manipulate oil prices by setting production quotas that often resulted in both cheating by various members. Many countries and companies have grossly exaggerated the estimates of their petroleum reserves in order to get increased OPEC production quotas, to increase their stock prices, or to obtain more collateral for their loans. Another problem lies in the definition of "reserves." Reserves are generally referred to as proven oil reserves that can be economically recovered using existing technology. However, many countries have played "fast and loose" with this definition. True that much of that oil does exist, but whether it is economically recoverable is debatable. Many simply do not understand the difference between "resources" (petroleum known to exist) and "reserves" (economically recoverable petroleum). They are unaware of the limitations of cheaply produced petroleum and point to the vast deposits of "non-conventional" petroleum sources such as tar sands and oil shales without awareness that these are "resources" and not "reserves." Without new improved technology or willingness to pay perhaps $60.00 or more per barrel of crude oil, these deposits are not likely to be extensively exploited.

Most of the world's oil has been found. The so-called "Super Giants" (extremely large oil fields) have been found prior to 1973. None have been found since, and this includes the time period encompassing the early 1980's when crude hit all-time highs and new technology was developed. In fact, the discovery rate for "Large Fields" has declined. Perhaps as much as 90% of the world's crude oil has been found. The amount of new discoveries in the world has dropped from a peak of 41 billion barrels in 1962 to an annual rate of 5 billion to 6 billion barrels a year now.

Predicting when oil production increases will peak and when the inevitable decline begins can be fairly accurately calculated. This mathematical model was first published in 1956 by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geologist. He realized early on that the unrestricted extraction of oil from a region eventually reaches a maximum production level. He fitted a bell curve to production statistics and projected the point when production peaks would occur. He did this for US oil production in the lower 48 states and concluded that oil production would peak in 1969, give or take a year. US production actually peaked in 1970. Oil productions from other regions around the world have successfully followed the Hubbert Curve model. The analysis reveals that Norway and the U.K. have likely reached their production peaks. Mexico's largest oil field, offshore Cantarell, has a $10 billion nitrogen injection project about to be commissioned to re-pressurize the field to offset declining production. Venezuela is facing a similar situation as Mexico. The Persian Gulf states are expected to reach peak production between 2006 and 2009. Global peak production could be reached as early as 2002, then decline over the next 70 years. As oil stocks peak and eventually decline, prices will rise steeply. Provided that there isn't a global recession (a more likely probability), then worldwide oil production should peak during the first decade of the 21st century.

What about undiscovered oil fields? There are very few geologically probable places that have not been actively explored. This includes extremely deep water and the polar regions. Since these areas are in remote and generally inaccessible regions, the costs alone would make any such oil fields uneconomic, if in fact they did exist. The problem is not so much that there is a shortage of reserves, but rather a shortage of production. For years energy companies have not invested in increasing their oil production capacity and refining capacity. In fact, in the US, no new refineries have been built since the 1970's due to EPA regulations and perceived liabilities.

WORLD DEMAND:

World demand for cheap oil is growing exponentially due to population and economic growth. The emerging economies of China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are rapidly industrializing and becoming more important to the world economy. To fuel this industrialization, ever increasing amounts of oil must be found, produced, and refined. Increased oil production has come from existing wells that have been exploited for many decades. Many advances in technology have allowed man to squeeze ever more oil from these oil fields. Yet no significant new fields have been discovered for many years. The refining capacity for any new oil would be severely restricted as oil companies have not invested in any new refineries or infrastructure. Regulatory limitations and recent low prices have created an environment where oil companies do not want the added liabilities. Any additional demand will severely stress the already deteriorated and fragile oil production infrastructure. Production from untapped reserves are limited by the simple fact that it takes years to meet regulatory criteria, drill wells, to setup production and lack of new refining facilities. In the US much of the known reserves are off-limits in such areas as the Alaskan north slope, Southern California coast, and Rocky Mountain Front.

Additional pressure on the world's oil supply is coming from the emerging economies of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The added economic and political tension will only increase as competition for world oil supply intensifies. The third world emerging economies such as China and India with over one third of the world's population will require ever increasing energy as they become major suppliers of goods. The energy needs of China and India are projected to increase by at least 400% in the next decade.

All the while, the Middle Eastern nations of OPEC continue to gain greater share of the remaining global oil business in a politically unstable region of the world. Increasing prices could reduce demand, however, the world as we know it runs on oil. In truth "Hydro-Carbon Man" and his addiction to "cheap oil" is about to come crashing to an end.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY:

The debate over whether or not there is plenty of cheap oil is a moot point when one considers that there is not enough refining capacity to produce from any significant increase in oil production. The only country believed to have any excess production capacity is Saudi Arabia. Kuwait recently admitted that they are unable to meet their OPEC quota. This is a recipe for disaster.

CLASSIFICATIONS OF OIL:

There are generally two classifications of oil. These are "Conventional Oil" and "Non- conventional Oil." "Conventional Oil" refers to oil that is easily economically recovered. "Conventional oil" is that which is found and produced today from large oil fields. "Non- conventional Oil" is that which is or can be produced from a variety of sources at higher oil prices.

CONVENTIONAL OIL:

Conventional oil sources are those that can and have been exploited easily and profitably. The largest oil fields were the easiest to find and exploit. The largest oil fields, so-called "Super Giants" were found early on as there were usually many clues as to the existence of a large pool of oil. Much of the time oil would even be found at the surface in what are called oil seeps. As the geology of these large oil fields was more fully understood over time, other surface expressions were useful in finding oil. The sheer size of these "Super Giants" (basins or oil province) were the easiest to find with any given technology. The exploration for oil improved with technological advances with the use of refraction seismic, analog reflection seismic, digital reflection seismic, 3-D digital reflection seismic, and electric well logs. Eventually as these oil fields were exploited and new ones were found, advances were made in drilling technologies as well such as horizontal (directional) drilling. The search for oil has advanced offshore and there too drilling technology has improved with the use of offshore drilling barges to deepwater drill ships, jack-up drill-rigs, and semi-submersible rigs.

In all probability, all the major oil basins or provinces have been found and the world is in effect, truly running out of oil. At least out of easily exploited conventional oil. In fact, the peak year for oil discoveries in the US was in 1930, and the peak for worldwide oil discoveries was in 1962. Discovery rates have steadily fallen since. In fact, most increases in oil production since then have come from technological advances that were applied to already discovered oil fields. 3-D Seismic and horizontal drilling techniques improved oil recovery in known fields, but have not resulted in any significant discoveries of major fields.

NON-CONVENTIONAL OIL:

Much has been discussed about non-conventional oil sources and alternative energy sources. It is true that there is a substantial amount of non-conventional oil. The problem of course is that it is much more costly and much of this oil is not economically recoverable at current prices. The Oil Sands of Canada's Athabasca region may have as much as 900 billion to 1.3 trillion barrels equivalent oil (maybe 300 to 600 billion recoverable). The wholesale processing of tar sands (effectively asphalt) is difficult and the impurities creates a whole set of environmental problems as it is mined and therefore is likely to face a lot of political pressure. There are at least 2 major producers in the region: Syncrude (a consortium of oil producers), and Suncor (SU). The same problems arise from even more difficult oil shales. The problems of course are the included heavy metals and sulfur content.

Some non-conventional oils are those that are not easily recoverable and also are difficult to process. An example is the massive deposit of heavy oil sludge such as that found in the Orinoco Belt. The Orinoco Oil Belt in Venezuela is thought to contain 1.2 trillion barrels of heavy oil sludge. The Orinoco Belt, or "Faja" of eastern Venezuela may become a major source of oil, yet this is a costly enterprise as this heavy sludge may not be easily recovered. This sludge has been described as having the consistency of peanut butter. The belt is a thick lattice of ancient river beds about 280 miles (450 kilometers) long and 60 miles (100 kilometers) wide. The heavy oil must be warm enough to be pumped and specialized horizontal drilling rigs are used. To keep this oil moving, solvents are used to dilute the oil before it cools and hardens. Obviously this will be not only costly to produce, but since it is still a heavy oil even after it is upgraded for shipment, the additional processing at the refinery will also be costly.

Other possibilities do exist. Liquid natural gases and condensates could be a source of fuel. Unfortunately, the need for clean burning fuel for the current generation of power plants for the world's power grids mean that the competition for natural gas will become intense. The difficulties of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be easily illustrated by a short case study of such a project in the small Arab country of Qatar on the western coast of the Arabian Gulf. Qatar has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world, and the country's North Field is the world's biggest source of non-associated natural gas (that is natural gas not associated with oil). The field has reserves of more than 500 trillion cubic feet - 3 times greater than in the entire US. Qatar is developing the capacity to deliver almost 11 million metric tons of LNG annually for sale to power companies and other customers in a number of Asian and European countries, as well as the United States. Natural gas is piped from the field to a processing facility. It is at this processing facility where the natural gas is liquefied by chilling it to -260 degrees Fahrenheit and transporting it in newly designed tankers with nickel and steel membranes. Once these tankers reach their destination, the LNG is regasified and consumed as pipeline natural gas. Obviously this will help offset some of the coming oil crunch, but a lot more specialized tankers and a lot of infrastructure needs to be built.

The possibilities do exist for clean energy from nuclear power. However, nuclear power is politically incorrect and faces regulatory and political pressures that make it an economic uncertainty. The Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl nuclear power plant accidents are still fresh in most peoples memories. Nuclear power in some countries is still acceptable (such as france and Japan) and may help relieve some of the pressure on limited oil reserves. Solar and wind power also face opposition as the infrastructure requires vast tracts of land and may impact on some wildlife. Solar and wind power are not likely to become widespread sources of power as they are climate dependent and it is not easy to store electrical power for use when needed. Another relatively expensive possibility is the development of Biomass fuels such as ethanol. The problem of ethanol is that it requires much more energy to create than is ultimately obtained. Ethanol that is used in reformulated gasoline is only available because of government subsidies. Non-conventional natural gas will become increasingly important. Coalbed methane (absorbed into coal molecular structure) is produced from wells drilled into coal seams. NG from gas shales require fracturing and pending recent requests for environmental legislation in the US to restrict Hydro-fracturing, this resource may ultimately become unrecoverable. NG in Artic regions and deepwater are problematic at best. Hydrates (methane ice-like solids) in Artic and oceanic regions are presently unrecoverable and do not migrate into commercial traps.

There is another classification that fits under the heading of non-conventional oil and that is oil in the conventional oil regimes that require uneconomic measures for exploitation. This includes oil that is in small oil traps that is currently uneconomic at current prices. Such oil is found in mature oil fields, and requires that wells are drilled near existing primary wells to access these small pockets of oil. Also oil that requires extraordinary measures such as steam, water or gas injection to force oil to migrate to where it is economically recovered could be considered non-conventional oil.

NEW ECONOMY AND OLD ECONOMY:

The financial analysts, government parrots, and media drones continue to rant about the new economy and occasionally attempt to describe how oil is not very important in the world's economies and therefore rising petroleum prices are no threat. They even continue to ignore the importance of petroleum when calculating core inflation statistics for the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer price Index (CPI). They even use dishonest measures in these calculations by incorporating dubious valuations derived from "Hedonic Deflators" and "Seasonality" statistics. These fools overlook the big picture and the importance of petroleum in the economy (New or Old). The claims are that Hydro-Carbon Man no longer needs oil because now he has communication through the Internet and the invention of the computer. He can buy his toys through a computer and a phone line. If it were only that easy.

The Old and New economy debate can be misleading. The future economy is likely to blend traditional business (Old Economy) with new developments and inventions (New Economy). The question is where does petroleum fit into this future economy? It is only obvious to even the most causal observer that energy and petrochemical use will grow several fold because they are so embedded in our economic life and power the engine of economic growth. The use of plastics (derived from oil) has increased and will continue to do so. The invention of the personal computer and development of the internet assures that electrical use will dramatically increase and thereby consume much more energy. Products purchased over the Internet will be delivered by conventional means such as by courier (i.e. United Parcel Service, Fed-Ex., Postal Service, etc.), consuming ever more energy rather than delivered to a central location where the consumer can retrieve several items at a time. As more people and countries join the new economy, ever more energy will be consumed.

The world's population continues to grow and recently surpassed the 6 billion mark. Agriculture is stretching its limits. Food is cheaply produced. Much of that cheap production is directly related to mechanized farming and the cheap production of petrochemicals such as fertilizers and pesticides. Without these petrochemicals, agricultural productivity would drastically decline. Approximately 90% of the energy in crop production is oil and natural gas. About a third of the energy is to reduce the labor input from 500 hours per acre to 4 hours per acre in grain production. About two-thirds of the energy is for production, of which about one-third is for fertilizers alone. Agricultural products are delivered to cities and remote areas by vehicles that run on oil.

POLITICAL STABILITY:

A major problem in many of the oil producing regions around the world is political stability. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have many social problems. Social programs are dependent on oil. The only business in most of these countries is the business of oil. The threats of war and internal strife are always a concern. Iran and Iraq have been to war and both have ethnic derision from minorities such as the Kurds who desire their own homeland. Saudi and Kuwait have had their own difficulties with Iran during the so-called "Desert Storm" event, and both must keep a wary eye on Iran. Even now Iraq accuses Kuwait of sniping it's oil along the border and has threatened renewed military action. The possibility always exists that another Arab-Israeli conflict could arise. There are numerous possible events that could disrupt oil supplies from the middle-east. As oil supply becomes tighter, we could expect the next president of the US go begging the Iraqis and Iranians for oil and better diplomatic relations. Israel could even eventually find itself without a benefactor.

The oil producing regions of Africa and South America are also vulnerable. Angola and Nigeria have been through several civil wars, and the current governments are young and constantly under threat from renewed internal conflict. Venezuela has elected a socialist that has openly praised Fidel Castro of Cuba as a hero of the people, and has also instituted economic and political changes that could erupt into civil strife as well. Colombia has oil reserves, pipelines, and refineries that are under constant attack by revolutionaries (bandits?). The tight supplies of oil could be disrupted at anytime and therefore the threat to the world's economies from political instability is very real.
Black Blade
The Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" - Part II

The Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" - Part II

GOLD - OIL LINK:

The coming oil price shock/oil crisis will make the last temporary oil price shocks look very mild in comparison. On January 21, 1980, the price of gold on the London fixing set a record at $850 an ounce. This ended an inflationary decade of oil price shocks, freezing of Iran's assets and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which sent investors rushing for gold and silver. The average London price of gold for the year was $614.63 per ounce. Could it happen again? You bet it will. Gold has it's own intrinsic value and several thousand years of history is not about to vaporize and disappear. As philosopher George Santayana stated, that those who forget history are condemned to repeat it.

Every postwar recession has been preceded by a rapidly rising price of oil. Gold prices lagged the price of rising oil, yet the price of gold eventually rose as well. The question one must ask: If oil is rising in price, then why is gold not rising as well?

When the price of oil had risen in the past due to OPEC oil supply disruptions, the price of gold responded with a price rise as well. In 1974 gold rose 20% in response to the Arab oil embargo, and in 1979 gold also rose over 125% in response to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and subsequent Iranian revolution and hostage crisis. Oil and Gold have had roughly a 15 barrels of oil to 1 ounce of gold ratio. If this ratio were to be stable, then at today's $35.00/bbl, gold should be valued at $525.00/oz. If oil were to be priced at $50.00/bbl as some sources expect will likely happen, then gold should rise to $750.00/oz. Oil at an inflation adjusted value of $140.00/bbl that roughly matches its past record high, then gold should reach $2100/oz. (similar to recent projections in Forbes magazine).

Another way to look at the oil-gold relationship is to compare pricing during the 1973 Arab oil embargo and into 1974. Oil rose in price from $2.00/bbl in 1971 to $10.00/bbl in 1974, or a 500% increase in price. Following the relationship of the oil-gold ratio, an increase of 300% in the price of oil (similar to recent prices) should yield a price of $962.50/oz. for gold. A similar increase in the price of oil as the 1973 500% increase in the price of oil should yield a price of $1375.00/oz gold (based on a recent $275.00/oz gold and a projected $50.00/bbl oil). These back of the envelope calculations are based on the recent price of gold at $275.00/oz, which in my opinion is grossly undervalued, so it would appear upon closer examination that gold could and should increase much more in value. However one were to look at it, the oil:gold ratio appears to be out of balance and is due to readjust to the norm.

GOLD MANIPULATION:

Why is gold priced so low? If some are correct in their assumptions that the Saudi's and others in the Middle-eastern countries prefer payment in gold for oil (as per the 1920's oil deals), then they also have an interest in having a low gold price vs. a high oil price. This yields more gold per barrel of oil. This is unsustainable of course and eventually the lid will blow off unless some powerful forces cap the price of gold. The current gold prices are unsustainable in face of a growing energy crisis. As the price of oil continues to rise, the producers will not be very excited about receiving devalued dollars for their diminishing natural resource. The Central Bankers know that there is pressure on gold so there is a concerted effort to malign the perception of gold as portfolio insurance and as an investment. That is the primary reason for the Bank of England auctions, and the various other auctions that have come from European central banks and from the little CB's that can be leaned on to submit to their stronger cousins. This is only a temporary measure as it cannot continue indefinitely. There is not enough gold to continue with this charade forever. The longer it continues, the more explosive the rise in the price of gold. This is apparently the reason for the frantic efforts by so-called "Gold Analysts" at the major Bullion Banks who engage in hysterical effort to talk down gold prices and damage gold's reputation as a hedge against inflation.

The situation is more dire as one recognizes that the LMBA and Bullion Bankers have loaned out millions of ounces at ridiculous interest rates to those who sell short gold and then invest the proceeds in the equities markets or in higher yielding government paper and scalp the spread (Gold Carry Trade). Simply put - that gold is gone. The forward selling gold producers borrow gold, sell it, and usually use the proceeds to advance their mining operations. Some miners, however, act as hedge funds and invest in higher yielding government paper and they too scalp the spread. When these miners get in trouble and go bankrupt, the counter-party bank is on the hook. It is in the best interest of the LBMA and Bullion Bankers to maintain the illusion that gold is abundant and move the price lower in an effort to discourage gold investment. A sharp rise in gold prices would likely result in "margin-call" requirements that could level many financial institutions and hedged miners.

Eventually, something has to give. As the price of oil continues to rise and the ripple effects work through the economy in the form of higher prices, that is inflation in spite of government manipulated gauges of inflation such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics US Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and Producer Price Indices (PPI), the price of gold will explosively rise in value like a tidal wave as it is recognized as a hedge against inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank is trying to slow the economy with mild on-again and off-again interest rate hikes in an effort to engineer a "soft- landing" This is likely to fail as it has in the last 8 out of 10 times it was attempted. The odds are against it. It is a delicate balancing act between adjusting interest rates and money supply. Once inflation is truly felt, then people will run to hard assets. If oil rises to $50.00/bbl, then the government will have an extremely difficult time hiding and manipulating the inflation figures.

PRECIOUS METALS AND PREPARATION:

Physical precious metals are not an investment as much as insurance for the possibilities of economic disaster, natural disaster, or even temporary disruptions such as family tragedy, illness or unemployment. Many people prepared for possible disruptions to everyday life in advance to Y2K. Fortunately there were few problems encountered during the transition from 1999 to 2000. Those who prepared for Y2K and remain so now are better positioned for the problems that may be encountered during the coming energy crisis. A prolonged recession should be expected. In a worse case scenario, hard assets such as gold, silver, and platinum bullion and coin will transfer wealth across any pending disaster. We have health insurance if we become ill or am injured, we have life insurance for our heirs should we pass away, we have insurance if we have an automobile accident, and we have home insurance in case our homes are damaged or destroyed. Does it not make sense to insure our investment portfolios as well?

Hard assets are king when all hell breaks loose. Is it any wonder then that George Soros buys vast tracts of land and in the Silver miner Apex Silver (SIL), that Bill Gates purchases 10.3% of Pan American Silver (PAAS), and that Warren Buffett purchases 137 million ounces of silver and keeps it offshore out of the grasp of a potentially hostile US Government? Does it not seem reasonable that one should follow the lead of those who are supposedly in the know? Why stop at hard assets? Have a storage program of food, water and necessities in storage in case of unemployment, natural disaster, or worse. Get out of debt as soon as possible. Get a well-stocked first-aid locker. Get firearms and ammunition for hunting wild game. Maybe even a wood burning stove and plenty of fire wood. Disaster may not come, but many people tend to sleep better at night knowing that they have "battened down the hatches" so to speak. Think of the panic during the Cuban missile crisis as people rushed to the super markets and stripped the shelves bare. Why even when Johnny Carson on the "Tonight Show" a few years ago on US television joked about a toilet paper shortage, he unwittingly created a shortage as people rushed to get plenty of toilet paper. You see, anything can happen, but then I (and a few others) sleep very well at night.

CONCLUSION:

We have already learned the consequences of an oil crisis. In 1973 during the Arab oil embargo, the resulting higher costs were passed along to the consumer and the world's economies were thrown into recession. Those of course were only temporary blips. The world's economies are addicted to cheap oil. The new oil shock is coming and it is permanent. Hydro-Carbon man is going to suffer the effects of forced Hydro-Carbon withdrawal. Oil supplies from mature oil fields are diminishing and no new significant discoveries are being made to replace them. Current reserves have been inflated for political and economic reasons. Alternative and non-conventional energy sources are more costly and most are not likely to be recoverable. The discovery of new fields is not keeping up with current depletion rates. The crucial point however, is not when the world "runs out of oil," but rather the half-way point when production is no longer is increasing and when it begins to decline (Hubbert Peak), and ever increasing demand for oil forces prices to rise dramatically. There is a finite amount of oil. As oil reserves are depleted there will be rampant inflation and irreparable damage to economic growth. It is possible that much of the "non-conventional" oil may be eventually recoverable with new technology, new refining methods could conceivably be developed, and reclassified as "conventional" oil. However, at current prices these "non-conventional" sources are not profitable. The current infrastructure and refinery capacity limits our ability to keep up with demand. The world is an unstable place and the inability to expand energy only makes the world more unstable. The ratio of the historical oil to gold relationship is severely out of balance and offers a unique opportunity in gold (and silver) investments. Gold is about to reassert itself as a hedge against the coming inflationary pressures and world turmoil. "Hydro-Carbon Man" must adjust to his new environment of declining energy resources, higher energy costs, or go extinct.

RECOMMENDED READING:

Campbell, C.J., The Next Oil Price Shock: The World's Remaining Oil and Its Depletion," Energy Exploration and Exploitation, v. 13, no. 1, 1995, p. 36.

Campbell, C.J., The Coming Oil Crisis, Multi-Science Publishing Company & Petroconsultants, 1997.

Campbell, C.J., and Laherrere, J.H., The End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American, Mar. 1998.


Jin-Yin
Israel
@darkhorse � totally agree with you about many of us not having understanding of all information through personal experience. Atrocities on both sides make this developing situation all the more difficult to grasp.

@DOWNUNDER � G'day. Trying to understand what the facts are help to better comprehend the world at large. I have no opinion on the subject and certainly don't want to pass judgement on who is right or wrong. Like many people I don't have a clear understanding of most of the facts anyway, that is why some of the facts, if true, I found interesting.

Yes the e-mail was one sided and that is why I asked a few questions in my commentary; rhetorical questions that highlighted such concerns. I would have also liked to receive an e-mail with a Palestinian view but didn't. Thanks for the heads up as next time I will be clearer so as to be better understood when posting, especially with such a touchy subject.
Black Blade
The Next Big Thing by Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Snippit:

During the 70's the U.S. experienced a loss of confidence in government and in financial paper. The period was characterized by a series of policy failures that directly contributed to a rise in inflation. Investors preferred to put their money in tangibles rather than intangibles. These graphs of gold, silver, and oil show the tremendous price rise of key commodities during this time. Other commodities such as grains, cotton, and base metals also rose in value. Everything tangible from gold, oil, real estate, and rare art to collectables rose in value. The stock markets languished during this same period as reflected in the previous graphs of the Dow Industrials. If you made money in stocks, it was mainly in small cap companies or the commodity producers.

Basic Needs and Population

My observations lead me to believe the next big move will be in commodities. I believe it will be driven by supply and demand factors aided and abetted by a growing world population. Food, water, and energy are necessities. These items aren't optional, but are considered basic necessities of life. Without them, civilization would perish. At the end of the last century, world population was estimated to be 6 billion. By the year, 2020 global organizations from the World Bank to the UN estimate the human population on this earth will grow to 9 billion people, a fifty percent increase from where we are today. This population growth will become the primary driver of the demand for commodities of all kinds, will special emphasis on clean water, energy, and food. This demand for basics will take place regardless of the condition of the economy be it inflationary of deflationary.

Central Bankers' Two-Front War

For these reasons it has been necessary to maintain confidence in all things financial be it stocks, bonds or currencies. Central bankers are fighting a two-front war. One front is in the financial system that requires constant injections of liquidity to hold back the debt defaults and prevent the system from collapsing. The other battle is to prevent users inside the system from shifting their funds to an alternative medium such as gold, silver, oil or any other tangible good that would compete with paper and credit. It is a lot like a fork in the road. On one side is the credit and paper money system that makes up the world's financial system. On the other road are tangible goods such as base metals, oil, silver and gold. The war is a constant battle where the public must be corralled on the one side of the road. Therefore, in a crisis, the only alternative is to shift from one paper asset to another rather than exit the system for the other side of the road.



Black Blade: A new Puplava report. Are we due For a Repeat? I say that it's very possible. Much is discussed in Puplava's article (a good read).

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program.

Belgian
The euro's Ambitions
Still NOT yet recognized by the vast majorities of Dollar-blind, that the euro's alternative for STABILITY is Crucial ! Morgan Stanley for instance, classifies the euro in the Gold / SwissFr line !? As if the euro is a temporary refuge for temporary dollar-problems and holds nothing more than that. (mistake of course)
The euro is hesitant to show its real ambitions. Ambitions to overthrow Emperor Dollar ! Not an easy task, as we all do know. The plan/concept is there but some fear/hesitation to execute/materialize it,... reigns. The euro/gold-concept, needs the help and alliniation of Arabian oil. And it must be here that doubts might exist. Doubts about present or future division between Arabian oil producers themselves. Euroland and allies Doubts about the not foreseeable consequences of a substantial dollar fallout.
Doubts about the scale and intensity of US retaliatons.
These doubts must be living in Germany ! The French have much more selfconfidence (flexibility) on these matters.

A New Free Market for Physical Gold Trade, combined with another currency (the euro) must have some flaws and weaknesess. Can there be another kind of manipulation or unbalancing of power shifts ? Hot soup, isn't it ?

An alliance of Euroland + China + Russia + ME is quite a BIG piece of cake to put it undamaged on the currency table.
That's why the introduction of the "concept" must proceed with extreme care and precission. The architects and builders are a small minority of CEOs.

Whatever Welteke and his German faction might have in mind, is subordinate to the reality force and intentions of oil-euro allies. The POO and its consequences will inevitably bring the euro on the foreplan as the better "STABILITY" factor and tool ! Simply because of the *POSITIVE* Gold-Connection in blatant contrast with what the dollar has always stood for,... a Gold rival!

It is or the euro as a special (better) currency or the POO that will set Gold Free ! Both euro + Gold will enhance and perpetuate the initiated Gold move.

ST technical interpretation on POG : If 297,6$ holds a mini inverse SHS (bar-chart) is in place and a fib. target of 329$ is the next attraction point. Will see if POG rise has dramatic consequences for the shorters (Deutsche Bank included), already unloading their threathening derivatives or not ?


Black Blade
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Uncertainty of War

Snippit:

There were three factors that influenced the markets this week: 1) tensions in the Middle East, 2) economic numbers, and 3) earnings warnings. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East had the greatest impact on the markets with worries of the conflict erupting into a regional conflagration. Suicide bombings continued all week as Israeli troops took over and occupied many key Palestinian towns. The uncertainty of war breaking out in the region and the impact it would have on the oil markets helped to keep energy prices high this week. The Bush/Powell peace initiative helped to cool down tensions, which resulted with oil and natural gas prices pulling back by the end of the week. But there was still a sense of unease with investors with so many unknowns having no closure.

The Economy

This week the data was mixed with most economic reports indicating a weakening economy. The week began with a drop in U.S. factory orders, which fell in February. This report contrasted earlier reports on the manufacturing sector that indicated the 18-month slump was beginning to recover. Factory orders fell by 0.1% in February, the first drop since November of last year.

Other reports out this week showed the unemployment rate rose last month from 5.5% in February to 5.7% in March. It looks like those numbers may go even higher with a sharp jump in jobless claims this week. The number of Americans filing unemployment claims jumped from 396,000 to 460,000. Companies continue to downsize in an effort to squeeze costs down. In this competitive environment companies lack pricing power due to still competition, so what is left is companies are reigning in costs, which means further reductions in payroll.


Black Blade: I had thought to comment on the rise of 58,000 new jobs vs. the rise in the unemployment rate. How can this be? Simply put we are looking at more BLS trickery. These are "seasonally adjusted" numbers (read statistically manipulated) that ignore many thousands more who are out of work from various sectors that are conveniently ignored (otherwise there would be too many embarrassing questions to address). Remember that Februarys 66,000 new jobs disappear to be readjusted to a 2,000 lost jobs ("seasonally adjusted" ones of course or the losses would be much greater). Notice how the Trolls on CNBC and other media focus on the new jobs while neglecting to refer to the unemployment rate rising from 5.5% to 5.7%. More and more US economic data makes little sense � all that is required as far as the BLS is concerned is that enough people are fooled. Fooling the US public is becoming a more difficult proposition each day as trading volume on US markets have fallen off a cliff, unemployment rolls keep growing, corporate and consumer debt grows rapidly, corporations warn on earnings at a growing pace, corporate accounting scandals appear daily, public confidence reaches for all time lows, etc. The House of Cards is wavering and ready to fall. We do live in "Interesting Times".
Black Blade
Middle East crisis sets off rush into gold
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2002-04-05-gold.htm
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) � The Middle East's plunge into turmoil has driven gold prices toward their highest in more than two years as investors scramble for a safe home for their money. Gold prices have gained nearly 4% this week as Israeli tanks and troops poured into the West Bank in reprisal for a wave of Palestinian suicide bombings unleashed in Israel. With the West Bank in turmoil, speculation rife over a U.S.-led attack on Iraq and ongoing military deployment in Afghanistan, gold's reputation as a retreat in times of trouble has shone through.

Bullish gold fundamentals, including falling supplies from mines worldwide and a reluctance by producers to sell unmined nuggets in forward markets, have also underpinned the rally. "There's more interest being seen in gold now than in the last 15 years. There's been a mindset change," said Peter Hillyard, senior manager at ANZ Investment Bank. "Israel, Iraq, additional troops in Afghanistan, higher oil prices � the list is endless. In that environment gold goes up. ... There's enough going on to add gold as a portfolio diversifier," Hillyard said.

In local currency terms, gold prices in India, the world's top consumer, were at five-year highs and at nine-year highs in Australian dollar terms, Norman said. Japanese savers, worried over the safety of their bank deposits and the yen, have also scurried into gold to bank a dollar-denominated asset away from a lumbering stock market. Gold was trading in London at $301.00/301.50 on Friday, off its highs after President Bush called for a halt to Israel's weeklong drive into the West Bank and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area.


Black Blade: The list is endless indeed. Meanwhile the Bankers, Investment Houses, and Central Banks are walking a tightrope�..one misstep anywhere and the POG is off to the races once again.
Black Blade
Energy crisis costs ongoing
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/xml/story.ssf/html_standard.xsl?/base/business/10180113662067117.xml
Snippit:

Portland General Electric ratepayers will spend the next 31/2 years paying for an energy crisis that lasted little more than 12 months. This week, PGE's 738,000 customers began reimbursing PGE for $90.9 million in unanticipated electricity costs incurred last year when wholesale power prices skyrocketed. The payments will continue through August 2005.


Black Blade: The lack of preparation is costly. Yet the "Grasshopper" mentality has set in again � outta sight, outta mind. At least until the next "Energy Crisis".
Black Blade
Venezuela oil dispute escalates
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1912000/1912201.stm

Snippit:

The dispute between Venezuelan oil workers and the government has intensified, increasing the risk of a supply squeeze. Protests already caused some disruption to oil supplies on Thursday, and the workers at state-owned oil firm PDVSA vowed to step up the strike on Friday. "Workers of all sectors of PDVSA are starting today a progressive, collective suspension of work in operational and administrative areas," a spokesman for the group said.

The news comes amid growing concern over global oil supplies due to political troubles in the Middle East. Venezuela is the world's fourth largest exporter of crude oil and is a key supplier to the US market.


Black Blade: Venezuela is the largest oil importer to the US.
Black Blade
Alcoa 1st-Qtr Profit Falls 46 Percent as Sales Drop
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APK3RFRRlQWxjb2Eg

Snippit:

Pittsburgh, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's largest aluminum company, said first-quarter profit fell 46 percent and sales dropped because slumping demand from aircraft and automotive makers eroded prices. Earnings fell to $218 million, or 26 cents a share, from $404 million, or 46 cents, in the year-earlier period, Alcoa said in a statement. Sales declined for a third quarter in a row, dropping 19 percent to $4.98 billion.

Black Blade: Amazingly, yet not surprisingly, the spin from the media Trolls was that earnings fell 46% but "beat analysts estimates". Hmmm� This ridiculous spin has to be getting old. That is reflected in extremely low trading volumes on Wall Street.
Black Blade
AGA Natural Gas Storage
http://highlandenergy.com/
The American Gas Association (AGA) has stated that natural gas in storage is at very high levels compared to last year. That may or may not be true due to disputes about sample population collection, data acquisition, and the methodology used. However, it should be noted that withdrawal rates have been exceptionally high � at times several times the withdrawal rate of last year. Natural Gas is the real sleeper that is slipping below the radar.

Note from the graph (at the link � click on AGA Storage, then graph or table menu) that storage levels are not all that much out of line compared to previous years.

The reason for such low natural gas storage levels last year are due to the booming "New Economy". In fact ever-more energy is consumed as more computers, Internet backbone, server farms, telecom infrastructure, etc. are built and used. This dramatic growth in the "New Economy" helped to create last years "energy crisis" as demand outstripped energy supply.

Natural Gas demand has been increasing at a very rapid pace as new power plants have been built in response to last years "energy crisis". Virtually every new power plant being built or planned is natural gas-fired due to environmental and political regulations that make coal, oil, and hydroelectric less desirable. Fuel cell technology will eventually be built, however, the fuel here is also natural gas (easier and energy efficient to break four hydrogens from one carbon than it is to break two hydrogens from one oxygen). That will of course add more pressure to natural gas supply. The new energy commission in California is studying this possibility with stacked fuel cells (daisy-chain) for critical centers such as hospitals, government services, etc.

Natural Gas demand will rise as aging nuclear power plants are retired or shutdown for maintenance. Recently boric acid corrosion has become a concern as the Besse-Davis nuclear power plant near Toledo has been found to be damaged. There are 69 such nuclear power plants (Three Mile Island design) that may be shutdown for inspections and possible repairs. The whole process may take anywhere from 90 days to 2 years.

Hydroelectric power is becoming questionable due to drought in many parts of the US. On the East Coast from New England to Georgia, drought has been enough of a concern that some regions have implemented water restrictions. There will be a greater reliance on other sources of power as water levels will likely be kept high as possible in some rivers for environmental reasons.

Coal-fired and Oil-fired power generation will probably be restricted due to lack of "carbon credits" that are routinely traded among power producers. Older plants are being retired after many years of use and the switch has been to natural gas while "carbon credits" are used to keep other older power plants operating.

Drilling activity for natural gas exploration and production has fallen to very low levels (Rig counts are far below last year's levels). This may result in a shortfall in supply this coming fall and winter � at the worst possible time. Production has already fallen by nearly 3% while decline rates in several fields have increased by as much as 29%. As reserves are not being replenished the outcome is almost a forgone conclusion. Last year with record drilling activity, production increased only 2%. The AGA storage data could very well be misleading and giving a false sense of security. If the economy is in recovery as some economist claim (doubtful), then we may find a different kind of "October Surprise".

- Black Blade
nickel62
Elephant size gold mines really as scarce as the giant oil field discoveries that YGM and BB mentioned!
As far as I can remember, the number of truely large gold discoveries is really quite limited. The Goldstrike mine in Nevada for all intents and purposes has built both Newmont and Barrick into what they are today. You have the Yanacocha mine in Peru, The Red Lake Mine of GOld Corp which is really the same ore body as the Placer Dome Mine Campbell Mine,a thousand yards away, and numerous other large districts in the world that have two or more mines sharing them and produce a million ounces or more. Not many of those type babies out there. And really you need that kind of economies of scale and high grades to be producing at the kinds of low total production costs that you need to stay in business at $300/ounce gold. We keep hearing about the ability of the mines to flood the world with production but realistically unless the technology has changed significantly in the last six years, even at $400/ounce the number of new production mines that could produce above 500,000 ounces per year is rather limited. I would be interested in a discussion where we shared our collective knowledge about what is out there in terms of potential new finds or more likely old fines that became uneconomic at sub $300/ounce gold and now might have a chance of comming back. Anyone interested? I don't mean touting various juniors by the way but talking about where the gold districts that could be brought back are and who has the best mothballed type of properties. As we all know the number of actual exploration plays that are out there is very limited. What do you think? I hope you understand that there can be a difference between sharing areas of potential and touting spec stocks. I have no interest in the latter, thanks. But there are some commodity discoveries of the past that might be finally starting to pay off. LEt me know if the members of the table think this is not doable.
Belgian
Welteke...
Germany : "Welt am Sonntag" (World on sunday-Finance) by Ulrich Reitz : Translation
Bundesbank president E.Welteke made a beautifull eastern present to his friend (!) Financeminister H. Eichel (SPD-Socialist Party Deutschland) with the past intervieuw on Germany's Gold reserves (parts of) for interest bearing (German) stocks (utilities-RWE-?). Welteke will elaborate on what exactly he was suggesting previously on april the 11.
H. Eichel is happely waiting to see if sleeping Gold will be exchanged and handed over for interest producing paper.
Welteke's plan will bring nothing to compensate for the Brussel's deficit criteria. That was stated by the CBs. No more sales before 2004 (W.Duisenberg.)

April 11 will bring exclusion on this ridiculous little "political" (small) play that Welteke has been bringing. First statement was to test the water. Duisenberg responded and now the finale on april 11. Very little storm in a very little glas of water.

When you Google on Welteke's past intervieuws, you get a nice picture on his personality ! Judge it for yourself.
YGM
GATA
Finally!... some serious Media coverage....If Chris already posted this then please forgive me...YGM
*********************************************************

Le Metropole Members,

[GATA] GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout
Date: 4/4/2002 8:25:39 PM Central Standard Time
From: GATAComm@aol.com
To: gata@yahoogroups.com

9:08p ET Thursday, April 4, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A remarkable financial market commentary that
centered on GATA's work was distributed
yesterday by the Knight-Ridder/Tribune news
service and published at the CNN and London
Evening Standard Internet sites.

While we don't know at this hour how extensively
the commentary has been published in the United
States, the Knight-Ridder/Tribune news service is
delivered to many major newspapers owned by that
company, including the Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia
Inquirer, and Miami Herald. So with this commentary,
we have finally cracked the U.S. media blackout
on the scheme to suppress the gold price.

This is all the more delightful because GATA
has not had any direct contact with the commentary's
author, Richard Morrissey, publisher of
www.CreditCurve.com. That is, GATA's work has been
reaching many people in the financial markets despite
the U.S. media blackout.

So don't despair at the dismissal of Reg Howe's
lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Boston. The
suit is not only is still alive with the motion
Howe has just filed for a revision of the
dismissal judgment, but the suit already had
brought the gold-suppression scheme to an
international audience. Exposure of that scheme
remains our biggest weapon, and we continue to
attack with it.

The Morrissey commentary appears below, along
with the Internet link to it at the CNN site. If
you use the link, please close any spacing that
may appear in it in this dispatch.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?
story_id=29040017&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&

Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre
As a Safe Hedge in Troubled Times

By Richard Morrissey
Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
April 3, 2002

After years of playing the part of Cinderella
to other more-favored financial assets, gold
is finally shaking off its dowdy image and
taking a shot at gaining the prize for best-
performing asset market of 2002.

Since 1997, $300 an ounce has been a ceiling
for gold as a combination of central bank
auctions and lending to hedge funds, forward
sales by gold producers, and the much-touted
death of inflation conspired to keep the
price well below its historic high of $870
hit in 1980.

To those gold bugs who have never given up
hope that this once-lauded store of value
would again take its rightful place in the
pantheon of credible financial instruments,
the poor performance of the commodity has
been nothing short of a conspiracy.

Indeed, according to many gold aficionados,
particularly those at the Gold Anti-Trust
Action Committee, the U.S. Federal Reserve,
the U.S. Treasury, and European central
banks, in league with major U.S. investment
banks, have conspired to keep the price of
gold low.

Gold broke through the $300 level to reach a
two-year high of $307.80 on 8 February. But
the move did not last long, and as the price
drifted off German Bundesbank President Ernst
Welteke conveniently speculated that Germany
might at some stage start selling gold. The
timing of his statement was seen by many as
an attempt by the central banks to ensure the
price of the commodity remained capped below
$300. However, the price has since rebounded,
trading back above the key $300 level last
week.

The latest rebound has been driven by new-
found interest from the hedge funds, many of
which are betting that persistent selling by
large investment banks to keep the price
down, and central bank comments to achieve
the same end, will ultimately fail to cap the
upward trend.

Indeed, the talk now is that this so-called
cartel is about to get its comeuppance, with
some gold optimists suggesting gold may hit
$600 or even $1,000 an ounce.

The Enron scandal has brought to the fore the
issue of cartels and especially the role of
so-called bullion banks that reportedly have
very large short positions in gold via the
derivatives market. These are now being
squeezed as the price of the commodity rises.
Indeed, there is wildfire speculation among
some U.S. gold watchers that if the price of
gold moves even $20-$30 higher we are going
to see these shorts getting hammered.

There are plenty of other reasons why gold
and gold-related stocks are worth serious
consideration. As well as Enron, the markets
also have to contend with Argentina's debt
default and the huge bankruptcy cases of U.S.
companies.

Another factor favoring gold is the
quadrupling of purchases of bullion by
Japanese consumers worried about the safety
of their bank deposits. Also, investors in
the Middle East have started to actively
purchase the metal as tensions over Iraq,
Israel, and Palestine mount.

Finally the all-powerful U.S. dollar, which
has held up remarkably well in the face of a
weaker U.S. economy, evaporating corporate
profits, and heightened worries over the
threat from terrorism, may be set for a
downturn, which usually means higher gold
prices.

Against this backdrop there is a genuine case
for thinking that gold provides an attractive
hedge against financial and political stress.

However, gold has to become more than just an
icon of gold bugs, conspiracy theorists, and
short-term speculators. Instead it needs to
broaden its appeal as an asset among
mainstream investors anxious to protect
themselves in an increasingly uncertain
financial and political environment.

---------------------

Richard Morrissey is publisher of
www.CreditCurve.com.

------------------------------------------

COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS
WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA
AND BEEN RECOMMENDED BY OUR MEMBERS

Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East 1st Ave.
Suite 403
Denver, Colorado 80206
www.USAGold.com
Michael Kosares, Proprietor
US (800) 869-5115
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
cpm@usagold.com


***Many other Coin dealers omitted here by me as per advertising rules. But USA GOLD is at the "TOP" of the list.......YGM.
Hipplebeck
The public debt (reposted)

Just to bring it into focus on a real life level,
Every child born in this country is starting off with a debt of over $20,000.
That's right.
Every one of us owes more than $20,000 on top of any personal debt we have run up.
If the government balances the budget from here on in, we will all have to pay $133 per month for the next 30 years to pay off
what has already been spent. (at 7% interest).
Yes that's right.
For a family of four that's $532 a month.
Cavan Man
@Sierra Madre
History can only be made in the context of preceeding events.
Canuck
Pondering
I saw Hamilton's recent essay on oil/gold ratio's (tks Waverider). He rediscusses the ancient 15/1 gold/oil ratio and outlines today's 11 to 1 ratio discussing if oil is too expensive and/or gold too cheap.

Other ratios are interesting, the Dow/Gold, Dow/Silver, Gold/Silver, Gold/XAU etc.

Ratios are statistical, what do they mean? In the case of the gold/oil ratio Hamilton makes the point that from 1950 to 1971 the ratio averaged some 14.8 and in the last 30 years it has increased to over 16.

So where is it going? Well, reading the numerous 'cheap oil' essays, posts and messages it seems to me that the ratio may swing strongly in oil's favour in the next few decades. As cheap oil becomes scarce will it's price not accelerate faster than gold? Let's guess a little. When the last barrel of oil is sucked out of the ground (in 2099??) suppose the ratio is 1 (gold $10,000/oil $10,000). Alarming, absurb, impossible? In 2006/2008, as we approach Hubbert's Peak, oil may fetch $80/bbl while gold languishes at $400/oz. The ratio, a mathematical convenient 5.

The long term view of 15/16 as the historical gold/oil ratio in my opinion will drop.

Silver is in my books as a love/hate metal; I can't decide to be bullish or bearish. Yes, silver is consumed (little above ground) and more industrial use than gold but silver has indeed lost it's largest use. That use, as we know, is the making of coin/currency. The US had a hoard of 2 billion ounces many, many moons ago and now it has a mere handful. This is alarming at face value but the other side of the coin is why do they need it? Why does the US Treasury and/or the US Mint need a massive stockpile of silver? Do they stockpile zinc, lead, ....apples?

The ageless/endless commodity/monetary argument for silver appears to have reached its conclusion. Silver has slowly shifted over the last 30 years to commodity status. Even the goods folks here and at other forums boast of more and more commodity uses and there is (as one must admit) less and less monetary use of silver.

Some time ago I chanced on a Dow/Silver ratio chart. I forget the exact numbers but I recall numbers of 100 and 200 to 1 generations ago while the ratio hit a mind-numbing 2200 when the Dow peaked at 11,000 and change. Where will this end up?

Back to the gold/oil ratio. Let's assume for the moment that alternatives to oil, NG, coal etc. will not be discovered/invented in the next 20 years. These conventional sources of energy will rise; given the assumption above, this is not a debatable fact. So, if the gold/oil ratio is to increase to its historical 16/1 gold must rise. Why will it rise?

If silver is being de-monetized and the debate rages that the PTB is doing the same where all this lead?

Forget about the ratios, I can concoct a corn/apples ratio that will be as meaningless as any other. The bottom line, IMVHO, is the attack on the monetary value of gold.

As Hamilton pointed out in 1995, the traditional 16/1 gold/ratio was severed. So began the de-monetization of the yellow metal. This is where my focus will be, trying to understand where gold is headed. Will it follow oil? Will the PTB lose control? Will gold be a commodity metal for high-performance printed circuit cards and jewellery?

The WA gave us a crumb but I do not know for sure if it's for real. Yeah, yeah "gold will remain an inportant reserve", blah, blah, blah. The $260/330/260 ramp up/ ramp down didn't convince me of the EU's intentions, seemingly not the market's either.

We know as much today as we did 5 or 6 years ago, nothing.


(Must run, sorry for the non-proofread; I await the flaming!!!)

YGM
Wildcard in China's future......
Internal strife can & will deflect external plans of Hard Line Communist Leaders, IMHO.China's labor
unrest a portent
by Manik Mehta*
Taipei: Taiwan
TNA News with Commentary
No. 330, Weekend 6-7 April 2002

The pressure cooker has been whistling for quite some time, but few international analysts have taken notice of what has been happening in mainland China. The euphoria over what many anticipate will be a larger market has drowned out the cries of laborers, who are afraid of joining the ever-increasing hordes of the jobless.

With Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji's new emphasis on productivity, it is natural to expect millions of workers to be laid off from unproductive, bloated government organizations. Indeed, the mainland's labor problems will intensify further, with inefficient, unproductive units facing closure and workers being phased out of hitherto cozy sinecures. Layoffs will create social unrest. Workers depend on such jobs for basic survival. The socialist thinking of many workers, who still cling to past ideals regarding "overall good," has still not been completely eliminated. Organized labor in state factories is very much a problem � a situation that has come to the fore in recent days.

The mainland's "Rust Belt" was rocked March 21 by escalating unrest in two cities. Workers, angry about unpaid wages and job losses, took to the streets in face-to-face confrontations with military police. The communist leadership is fearful of social unrest in that the majority still lives in poverty while a small minority along the southeastern coast enjoys prosperity.

Eye-witnesses in the northern province of Liaoning told journalists that the military police had to be called in to safeguard the local administration office in the industrial center of Liaoyang, and break up demonstrations. While eye-witnesses said there were 10,000 demonstrators, local officials, in typical fashion, denied that there had been any protests at all.

Another scene occurred in Daqing � an oil town in Heilongjiang Province in the North � where employed and laid-off workers picketed the local office of China National Petroleum Corp. Angry protestors overturned a car, although it was not clear if there were any occupants inside the vehicle or whether anyone was injured. Despite all these incidents, the communist regime in Beijing declared that "nothing had happened" and that everything was "normal." But the "normal" situation continued to deteriorate further. Thousands of angry demonstrators marched to government offices calling for the release of four labor leaders, who had been arrested. Three leaders were arrested while holding talks with government officials in Liaoyang. The fourth was arrested near his house.

Strikes and demonstrations were unusual when workers were guaranteed jobs regardless of whether they were engaged in productive work or not. But as modernization continued and competition became fiercer, particularly after accession to the World Trade Organization, inefficient state-owned firms are being closed and the ranks of the unemployed continue to swell.

While demonstrations have, by and large, remained nonviolent, burgeoning unemployment will produce a great deal of worker frustration. Such frustration can lead to social unrest that may eventually culminate in violent upheavals. Already, the size of the demonstrations and intensity of the protests have taken both local and foreign experts by surprise. Workers believe that they have been cheated by factory managers and by extension the state, which after using them for decades is now throwing them out onto the streets.

The communist regime deployed armed police to quell what have been some of the largest protests in the country, highlighting the pressure the Chinese Communist Party is under from millions of workers who have lost their jobs since reform began. The workers at the Daqing oil company were particularly angered by a plan aimed at abolishing welfare benefits in exchange for a one-off payment unless workers continued to contribute to the pension fund, despite no longer being employed.

Many are already wondering if these protests will one day turn as volatile as those held at Tiananmen Square in 1989. Such an eventuality cannot be ruled out. After having jumped on the WTO bandwagon, the mainland's main priority is to remain competitive in global markets.

According to independent sources, another 20 million job losses are expected nationwide because of WTO membership. Indeed, as the mainland opens its market to imports, it will not only face the onslaught of sophisticated foreign technology but also products of superior quality. As purchasing power grows, a quality-conscious class of people will be more inclined to purchase imports.

The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions stated that workers in Daqing have established an unofficial union and that demonstrations have spread to other oilfields as an expression of solidarity. Activists are reportedly hiding to avoid arrest.

The Daqing unrest is reminiscent of trade union activity in communist Poland in the early 1980s when an unknown shipyard worker named Lech Walesa emerged as a trade union leader. He banded workers together, eventually leading them to liberate the country from the communist yoke. Is the mainland next?

*Manik Mehta is a free-lance writer based in New York.


YGM
More failures......Who's "Next"??
Just the "Tip of the Iceberg" .......And the Public Investor Rides the Titanic....DEFAULT BY NTL CABLE-TV WOULD MARK
THE BIGGEST CORPORATE BOND DEFAULT IN HISTORY,
even surpassing that of Enron.

A Bloomberg wire on Thursday pointed to the fact
that, according to Moody's Investors Service,
the corporate bond default by Enron last year
amounted to $9.9 billion ***(excluding bank credits and derivatives, of course),***
while the British cable-TV company NTL, based in New York,
is now about to default on $11.5 billion of corporate bonds.

On Monday this week, NTL was not able to meet interest payments
on its bonds. As Bloomberg writes: "It now has time until May 1
to make good on the payment or trigger
the world's biggest corporate debt default,
which would send it into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from
creditors."

NTL is the leading cable-TV group in Britain.
Its stock price plunged 43% on Monday alone,
while its market capitalization since the beginning of 2001 melted down from $11 billion to $23 million.

London's Financial Times notes that with total debt
more than 500 times larger than market value,
NTL surely qualifies for the "Guinness Book" of records.

NIPPON TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH (NTT), JAPAN'S MAJOR PHONE COMPANY,
said today that it expects to post the biggest annual loss
by a Japanese nonfinancial company. NTT said it will record
a loss of 865 billion yen ($6.5 billion) for the fiscal year
ended March 31 of this year. This will result from NTT writing
down
2 trillion yen ($15 billion) in its investments in overseas
companies AT&T Wireless of America, Royal KPN of Netherland's
mobile phone unit, and Verio, Inc. of America,
and including a reorganization charge of NTT's own domestic unit.

Meanwhile, financially troubled Worldcom announced it would
layoff another 3,700 workers, or 4% of its total workforce.
Worldcom is America's second largest long-distance phone company,
and the world's biggest carrier of Internet traffic.

The Hoople
Handy dandy references
I have come to use about 6 reference points to gauge the health (or lack of) of the U.S. economy. While these aren't anything new it quickly gets me to real information that can't be seasonally adjusted, hedonically deflated, or any other form of skewed reporting. So unless you just like watching Bartiromo blather about why the arrows are all red you can get your cost down to a weekly Barron's , a quick visit to your state web site, and visiting this site to convert those worthless fiats into money.

* IBM / GE stock prices - this is the faith in the market, period. If either did an Enron its all over.

* JPM/ Chase - barometer of derivatives bubble. When trillions go by- by this flag will be bright red.

* Fannie/ Freddie and HD - barometer of housing bubble. This is mostly the only prop under the economy right now. Trillions of government-backed cheap mortgages are doing the trick. For how long?

* Insider selling - Wall Street faith (or lack of) in Wall Street. As they say they are talking the talk, but aren't walking the walk right now.

* State sales tax collections - measures the real economic vitality and not just vague references to recovery. Our state just had a 9% drop in collections for the month of March. It isn't recovering if the sales tax revenue is dropping.

* M-3 non-adjusted - the real inflation rate. When M-3 was about a trillion gold was still about $300. Now M-3 has surpassed 7 trillion and still the same $300 gold. I figure the delayed rate therefore at $300 per trillion, or $2,100 for the real price of today's gold. Whenever I see 50 billion added almost weekly to M-3 I figure gold is up about $16.50 that week. Anything less is suppression. Remember when 1 share of Amazon would buy 2 oz of gold? Now it would barely cover the premium to spot. Think dollar instead of Amazon stock and you get a better idea of the risk. I know there are many excellent guides other than these 6 but I really think it clearly and quickly gives a picture.














miner49er
Belgian @ Welteke
Very interesting info... great analysis!

On the topic of Germany, do you have any thoughts regarding their unification? It had always seemed to me, that the 1:1 West/Ost Mark exchange would manifest itself in much worse price inflation. Yet, despite all the economists warnings, it seemed politically pre-determined, and indeed, that is what happened. And, in the same way (on a smaller scale) that the U.S. seemingly mystified its critics when it broke from gold in 71, so this superinflated new German state has had only mild inflationary indigestion, hardly the rupturing ulcer their physicians warned against.

Regarding the U.S. dollar actions of the 70s, a more complex understanding of factors like oil, gold, and the politics regarding a replacement currency, help fill in the gaps. Do you think there are any such considerations to be had in the German situation as well?

While Russian troops left the East ostensibly as a bankrupt, vanquished foe, with little alternative, do you think there was any other price paid for such an easy withdrawal? Seems to me, that despite the blown up state of the Soviet "empire," at that time, this was truly one of their prizes. It seems odd they let it go with so little fuss...

All this to suggest the question, if there were prices paid for an "easy" absorption of East back into West, was payment deferred to sometime in the future? Is payment coming due in this day?

While an official intervention on the part of a German utility (presumably because it needs help), is a typical short-term political goodie, it seems there would be more to it. Is this utility some metamorphosis of an old East German utility? If so, I would gather there are not too few shareowners still, that were former Soviet officials. This being some way of washing a payout promised a decade ago through transparent political channels. Maybe not, but I'm sure this kind of thinking goes on.

If gold is about to undergo an "official" revaluation, there are settlements that need to be made before the fact in cheap gold, just as much as settlements will be made after the fact, in revalued gold. Depending on who had strength in the bargaining position at the time...

Gotta run right now... will check in later. Would love to hear your take, though...


cheers,
miner
mikal
@Canuck, All
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/comHSP27a.htmBy Hugo Salinas Price- "The right way to use silver in coinage." Written last fall and more relevant today than ever. This excerpt from the link concerns full legal tender status for silver!!!: "...Russians have plans similar to one we have..." Also he wrote in February 2002, this gem: "Mexicans buy more gold"-http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/comNOT24a.htm
mikal
Correct title to link below: "The right way to use silver in coinage. Part 2"
Site links other articles in English or Spanish
nickel62
The Hoople Thanks for the Handy Dandy Quick References
I found them very intriguing and most likly correct.
Belgian
Hoi Miner49er
I doubt that any Gold was/is/will be used for eventual Ost/West settlements !? Think you are running a bit too far with the Welteke Gold incitement. But indeed, Gold stands at the end of unemployment > contraction > stagfla > currency depreciation + welfare (re-distribution) etc. Basically confetti expansion in economic contraction, should be accompagnied with Gold (POG) value adjustments.
But that's what the ECB is doing (shy though) with its quarterly marking to market of Gold !!! Germany's reunification + expansion to Balkan and Russia is expansion. But is it a passive (redistribution) or a healthy productive expansion !? And here comes that desire of a specific monetary policy of the unified Germany, within the rest of Euroland. Yes Germany wants and has the capability of growing faster and deeper than the rest of us. And all this when they lost their total autonomy on monetary policy.
So far the euro and EMU has protected Euroland from heavier inflationarry burdens. But how difficult is speed of growth (different speeds of growth) and stability compatible in an Euroland with different economic velocities. This creates tensions and is reason for political fights (Welteke) on different programs. Euroland the Big "Compromis" ! Uhhgg.

Internal EMU tensions work on this quarterly valuation of the ECB gold reserves and on top of that the remaining goldreserves of the respective 12 member National Central Banks. Imagine you having to manage a household with 12 spouses (smile with understanding) ? And these 12 spouses have different spending patterns, but tied up to the Miner Agreement (WA) for periods of 5 years ...do you follow me ?
Add to the problem that it is not only your 12 spouses (EMU) but also other big spenders (U/UK/Japan/etc)having signed the WA and not belonging to your household. Woehaaa !

The final intention of FREE GOLD is having a constant Valuation of the Physical trade as a reflection of monetary management ! Bad management with strong currency depreciation = Higher POG or inversely.
This is surely not yet reflected in the present quarterly price marking of POG by the ECB !!! POG in euro is escorting the dollar/euro or euro/dollar trap ! Note that the US Gold is only reclassified and not marked to market since 30 years. And w've not yet come to any explanation for that reclassification and the possible role of Germany
into this. I'm at a complete loss here ! But don't give up searching.
Kind Regards to you Miner49er.
slingshot
RobotGuy
The POGWhat was the official POG? $299.80 or $301.00. There are two people who have something riding on the price. First my reputation and second the guy who is going to dye his hair blonde if gold stayed above $300.00 for Five consecative days. Betcha he was in my corner.
As for this experiment in calling the POG there are two ways to look at it.
Perception. That is what Joe Sixpack uses to evaluate the market. For him all is fairly well so his investment sharpness has been dulled. Why else would he continue to put large amount of money into the stock market and not invest in PM's.
Now sizing up the market that is a different animal altogether. The amount of information is far greater and researched for truth.

Perception and Sizing Up are almost the same except and I use this example.


When you meet somebody new and he is big. You think this guy is a nice guy. Thats perception.

Then this guy gets angry with you. And you think, can I take this guy or should I leave. That's Sizing Up. You might precieve that if you hang around you might get a whoopin.

So, Do you want to know when Gold goes to $1000.00 an oz.?


Slingshot-----------------------<>
Belgian
David W. Tice and Associates
** When central bankers become asset managers **

Gold and the previous (non US) US$ as good as Gold have always been the assets to be managed by CBs under direct order of the oligarchic governments, no ? What difference does it make if "stocks" are directly (Welteke+FED) or indirectly (Interest Rates) managed as asset or asset derivative ? Goldreserves and consequently the respective floating currency's valuations have been managed by CBs for already more than 70 years. We just are allowed to see some more transparancy on how this gigantic interventionism is to evolve. It is nothing more than explaining what is ment by the financial tail, wagging the economic dog ! What is the essential difference in se between the PPT and central bank ?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is making the difference or at least WANTS to make the difference with the management of one particular and very special asset : GOLD !!!
Who cares if between the assets (Gold/currencies) there will be some stocks or apples ? Wich of the present or future assets will remain as for all seasons to come ? All together now : GOOOOOOOLD ! Repeat : Phyyyyysical GOLD !
Stocks are paper contracts, stating virtual ownership of the underlying enterprise. So are Bonds, notes and any other paper contract, derivative or not.
I could appreciate if tomorrow CBs start stockpiling Crude Oil ! Than we talk about an asset worthy to manage.
But it is exactly these two VERY REAL assets (Gold + Oil) that are subject of denigration ! Both can NOT and will NEVER reach zero value ! Japanese IRs rerached 0,01 % level and track the purchasing power of so many currencies as notes or bonds. Real estate and land values are constantly taxed away. Why do the Rotshields have such a treasure on high value antics (and Gold of course) ? No taxes and transferable to the next generations ! Let them (CBs) play and manage as much different paper as they wish. I'll keep my yellow coins under the matrass.

These high profile but minuscule Goldsales by CBs is a lot of sand in people's eyes. I even start to enjoy official announcements (threaths) of some more Goldsales/exchanges/reschufflings (no sarcasm intended)!
YGM
Economic Control & Steps Toward a World Bank...
http://educate-yourself.org/brotherhoodpart3.htmlInteresting reading.........(NWO stuff)
USAGOLD
Belgian, 49er, All. . . .
Bundesbank, Old Bankers' Trust and DeutschbankI would like to throw a thought into the mix.

In the early 1990s Bankers' Trust made a decision to go from being primarily a commercial bank involved in the kind of business your neighborhood commercial banks does to a global money-center bank replete with wholesale currency dealings, loan repackaging, investment banking, i.e., the works. In the late 1990s stories began to surface that Bankers Trust was having all sorts of internal problems -- much having to do with complex derivatives arrangements. If I recall correctly, Proctor & Gamble at one point filed a suit against Bankers' Trust for fraudulent representation with respect to derivatives' packaging sold P&G. For awhile the details of the suit were suppressed by the courts and I don't know if they ever became public. I lost track of the story after Bankers Trust mergerd with Deutschbank (in 1999 I believe). The fact of the matter is that Bankers' Trust had the reputation on Wall Street of being one of the big risk players in derivatives. This modus operandi usually includes gold loans. I am not certain that Bankers' Trust was inolved in the gold carry trade business but I would not be surprised if we learned that they were deeply involved.

What is interesting about the Bankers' Trust/Deutschbank merger (beyond the on-going strategy of merging an entity that has gotten itself in a trading hole with a stronger, more conservative entity -the Barrick/Homestake merger also fills this mold) is how risk can be transferred across national borders. What was once the lender of last resort problem in the United States is now the lender of last resort problem of Bundesbank. (It would be interesting if someone could find out how this would affect ECB as well should Bundesbank decide to bump the problem downline). And I don't think any of us should lose sight of the fact that the lender of last resort function remains a central bank's most fundamental responsibility. As James Turk most notably documented several years ago, a central bank can print paper money to bail out a failing commercial "debtor" but it cannot print gold to bail out a commercial [gold] "debtor."

Can it be that the responsibility for the Banker's Trust gold loans transferred to Bundesbank via Deutschbank and the merger? My guess is they have and as a result altered the long term German financial establishment's alliance with gold. Deutschbank inherited a problem it didn't really want (or understood it was taking on) and in the process affected German monetary policy. The Welteke gold gaffes follow on that. It seems to me that some gold depositor[s] need[s] reassurances and that's what these statements are all about. Who that depositor might is anyone's guess. If Bundesbank can get in line for WA2, that reassurance carries weight beyond anything simply verbal. Gold lenders understand the supply problems with gold -- if they don't, they should.

There simply is not a lot of gold around in size. Bundesbank cannot make a few discreet phone calls and find 500 tonnes. It's not going to happen. Everyone in the upper echelons of the gold business knows this and I will stick with my original analysis that the British, the Swiss and the German sales (if there are any) are essentially lender of last resort activities resulting from the on-going and structural shortage of hard metal. Germany cannot afford to let Deutschbank go down (as Doody references in the generalized sense). So it may sell unless the German people through one of its political parties stops it. The depositor will be forced to remain patient and hopeful. Welteke's there to provide comfort.

In the future, I think the eurozone will look long and hard at mergers with external banks, particularly British and American banks, to make sure that the lender of last resort responsibilities on gold loans is not dumped on their doorstep.

Hard to believe that Deutschbank made such a costly mistake, but they did. And, once again, its interesting that a simple merger would have such a ponderous effect on German gold policy. One wonders if there hasn't been some behind the scenes quid pro quo involving gold between the U.S. and Germany -- but in my mind the flow would be opposite of what has been contended: From the United States to Germany instead of the opposite.

This is all theory, my friends --an educated guess as to what might be happening behind the scenes. I'll leave you and future events to determine whether or not this scenario holds water.

TownCrier
Question for Belgian
Since you've proven yourself to be quite adept at, shall I say, cutting through the underbrush, I was hoping you might be able to provide your particular brand of insights on this following matter.

You recently commented nicely on the motivations behind BuBa President Welteke's recent comments, and as you know, ECB President Duisenberg offered his own response regarding expectations of (fiscally- socially- economically-(?)) responsible activity from the BuBank with respect to gold. I can grasp that well enough.

My question for you is whether you have any inkling (translation = hunch, notion) of what Mr. Duisenberg may have been driving at when, beyond the jurisdictional element, he answered the equities question with a wink?

As a refresher, here again is his delivery Thursday regarding both the official practicality and official "endorsement" let's call it of Mr. Welteke's suggestion that the BuBank might purchase equities:

-----"Well, the management of both the foreign reserves and the domestic assets of any national central bank falls, beyond certain thresholds, under the guidelines and guidance of the ECB. That is one thing. And to buy equities is, let me put it this way, for many central banks not unusual."----

Your thoughts on the list he likely had in mind?

Thanks for your time.

R.
TownCrier
Thanks, Belgian
It seems that while I was typing my previous question, you were busy giving the lion's share of the answer I was ultimately expecting. Well done! That is, unless you have more you'd like to offer on the matter...

R.
Sierra Madre
Cavan Man: your statement about History:

"History can only be made in the context of preceeding events." - This you said in relation to my "Thoughts for the weekend."

I am puzzled by the connection between your clear, declarative statement, and the things I had to say; which I offered as thoughts, as suggestions to mull over.

"History can only be made in the context of preceeding events": yes, I suppose I can agree. But - there are lots of "buts" - WHAT are we to consider as the pertinent "preceeding events"? How do we select them? What rule do we apply to select the preceeding events? This is the problem of writing history: how to select the meaningful events. No two historians, however well-qualified, will ever write the same "History". Enough books to fill a library have been written on this subject. Herodotus, the Father of History, was hated by others as biased and malignant - Plutarch and Thucydides for example.
So if we want to stick to the "facts" - just what are the "facts"? Some historians even today are punished.

Black Blade writes about the End of Hydrocarbon Man; but, we have a preceeding event that is hardly known at the moment, which may change the outlook drastically: the Longitudinal Waves of the Vacuum which it appears MAY allow the construction of generators of energy in limitless quantities, such generators possibly to be on the market initially, by next year. See cheniere.org.

Incidentally, I can't think of an event more dangerous and destabilizing for humanity, that to provide it with unlimited and virtually cost-free energy! Disregard for limits, in any field, always brings with it Nemesis, the punishment of Nature, or of God. This invention may be the death of humanity.

Hoople: thanks for your six guidelines. I agree with you heartily. We don't have to know too much. Just the most significant data suffice (Again, what is "significant"?) Well, we can pick and choose as we like. I like your selection. 99.44% of the content of the WStJ is insignificant, as far the big picture is concerned. "So pure it floats!" Pure fluff.

M3: M3 is a good indicator. Very strictly speaking, prices in general are not - in Austrian economics - mechanically determined by money supply. But as a practical rule, I feel that prices DO follow the path of M3 over the long run. (Here we have Historical insight working together with Economic insight which is of another nature entirely.) I like your parallel between an M3 of 1 trillion, gold at $300, and M3 at 8 trillion, gold at $300. An objective of $2,400/oz is entirely reasonable, in my view.

Thanks for reading!

Sierra

USAGOLD
Randy, Belgian, 49er. . . .
The deeper you go into this analysis, the more you realize that physical gold remains the Holy Grail of the gold business -- the objective of all operations and precisely the opposite of what the opposition would have the public believe. Those who buy time, buy time to acquire the metal. That's why all paper representations are threatened on a continuum of risk for the holder the further you move away from the metal itself.

FOA and Another were right.
TownCrier
Good summary, MK...
Very nice to see it in print. A real treat for our Saturday visitors, to be sure.

R.
Old Yeller
More good analysis of the US C/A deficit
http://www.2000wave.com/home1/home1.html
The elephant at the cocktail party is finally getting some serious notice.European M&A activity has slowed to a crawl(little wonder in light of massive "good-will" writedowns as a conesquence of buying into bubble valuations)and the Asian tigers are carrying the ball now.

Perhaps bomb ia better word.

Short sighted monetary officials and brain dead politicians;supposedly acting in their peoples' best interest.Best argument yet for buying physical gold and saying NO to destruction of years of hard work and diligent saving in an inevitably valueless currency.

Can't happen in America,those who should know better endlessly bleat.

Another fine mess,the search is ongoing for villians to blame.Hopefully,the diversionary tactics will not work this time.
Cavan Man
@Sierra Madre
Pondering your thoughts as always; and, merely stating a truism though perhaps indirectly connecting your dots.

Best2U....CM
Rockgrabber
USA Gold, Thank you so much for this gold trail.
"""In the same way as prices rise against a currency durring inflation, physical gold prices begin to rise against paper gold. Less gold will delivered against contracts untill we end up with totall cash settlement. All the while the physical "Free Gold" market trades at higher and higher currency price. This is what dollar hyper inflation may look like in our modern paper gold markets. AS LONG AS INVESTORS BELIEVE IN PAPER GOLD, THEIR WEALTH WILL BE SLOWLY ABSORBED BY PHYSICAL GOLD BUYERS UNTILL TRADING BREAKS DOWN.""" By our Trail Guide.

I can feel the stomach of paper gold traders feel like they have just swallowed a bucket of ice water when they read that. That was written some time ago as well. Talk about a valuable lesson to learn before it is too late. I would be happy to buy physical gold at double the paper cost, even more. FOAs message has not fallen on deaf ears around these parts!!

Old Yeller
FWIW,Reg Howe's commentary on questionable Bundesbank/DB gold
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary12.html#anchor29020
Derivative activities from May 2000.Wenteke is squirming in a open and brazen fashion,however,at the moment,central bankers are still above suspicion in the financial skullduggery that envelopes our planet.

It's up to the people in the steet to expose these criminals(I do not use this word lightly),as it is obvious we are only recieving cursory coverage in the mainstream media despite GATA's assertions to the contrary.

Look at how quickly Enron disappeared into the ether when it became clear how these people in postions of power and trust so insidiously work together.
mikal
US troops suffer heavy losses?
http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/070402/dFOR09.aspNoninterventionism- Embracing this tenet, our founding fathers weren't only concerned with preserving lives, but the quality of life, and for each succeeding generation. The linked story originates from Moscow.
CoBra(too)
Usagold, Belgian, Miner et al ...
Just dropped in and skimmed the interesting posts re DB/BT and the potential blunder of landing BT's derivative - possible gold shorts at DB and eventually BuBa's door step.
Makes sense.

And probably makes even more sense by pondering DB's failed trial balloon to take over JPM, which would have re-delivered the gold problem back to the original sender.

Anyway, DB has bought the proverbial cat in the sack with BT and was squarely taking it on the chin, while part of a US/UK problem was neatly exported into the (pro gold?) euro lands.

Again, pure speculation on my part only, though the absolute
silence on euro CB's on any gold issue (remember my repeated queries to Klaus Liebscher the Austrian CB Gov. and a l.t. friend, to no effect) - except Wetelke's pathetic ramblings - would prove that something is very amiss in regard to gold.

... A final thought on the lender of last resort, which after the demise of Bretton Woods should have been the IMF
SDR's. We know seem to grasp that SDR's had a foster child called SDR Certificates, regulating gold equivalents as final barter payments for products necessary to keep up the grand illusion of inherent value in the free floating confetti currencies.

This system is doomed and the potential outcome can be read at the latest Atzteca di Oro at the Cafe - hopefully not the Dark Ages again.

- late night ramblings - cb2








Old Yeller
Looking for villains,in all the wrong places
http://www.smithers.co.uk/esnews.shtml?209
It's stock options and cooking the books by unscruplous CEOs,thatwould be today's bad guys,according to the esteemed Mr.Greenspan.

Who is responsible for allowing these charades to be created and continue in an unabated fashion,while the ROW withered away'sir?

Why were they heroes two years ago and villians today?

Where are the profits generated in your productivity boom?

Note the comments of the FASB spokesman,possibly hundreds of billions of off-balance sheet debt that must,at some time,be reconciled on companies' books.

Just another unexpected surprise,that's all.
Black Blade
Arab Oil Embargo Gains Support
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020406/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_palestinians_120Arab Foreign Ministers Meet

Snippit:

CAIRO, Egypt - Arab foreign ministers gathered here Saturday to discuss ways of increasing their response to Israel's military offensive on the West Bank amid calls from Iraq and Iran to use oil as a weapon. The Arab League ministerial meeting comes after a week of daily protests against Israel and the United States, the like of which the Arab world has rarely seen. Jordanian demonstrators beat up riot police and sent them packing in Amman on Saturday while Bahraini protesters set fire to structures in the U.S. Embassy in Manama.

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came out Friday in support of the Iraqi oil proposal. "I suggest, only for one month, as a symbolic gesture, that Arab and Islamic countries switch off oil to all countries who have close relations with Israel," Khamenei said in a Friday prayers sermon in Tehran. However, support for a cutback came from a newspaper in a fifth oil producer, the United Arab Emirates, on Saturday.

"The time has come to stop talking and start action ... Time now to reflect upon the success of the oil embargo of 1973 ... So it is time to use it again. Then, perhaps, the international community will once again listen to the voices of the Arab peoples," said an editorial in the English-language Gulf News.


Black Blade: Support for a new Arab Oil Embargo is picking up steam. Libya could also be expected to give support. There also exists the very real possibility of terrorist acts against the oil industry infrastructure of those producers who do not support an embargo. This Middle East affair is intensifying and spreading throughout the region.

Black Blade
Labor Dispute Affecting Oil Exports
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020406/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_oil_protest_42
Snippit:

An escalating confrontation between the government and workers at one of the world's largest oil companies has started to affect exports from Venezuela � the largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States.

Protesting workers closed two of Venezuela's five major loading terminals Friday, stranding a dozen ships waiting to load cargo, Venezuelan oil officials told Dow Jones Newswires.


Black Blade: Oil workers have called a strike for Tuesday. Another possible restriction of oil supply is in the works.
mikal
Correct link- Afghan story
http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/070402/dLFOR09.aspPlease accept my apologies for oversight. Article suggests resistance reminiscent of VietCong. If the US public overwhelmingly approves of this conflict as we are told, why aren't our dead and wounded casualties being honored publicly?
Sierra Madre
Like taking candy from children...

Just a couple of weeks before the famous "Washington Agreement" I had a converation with the Managing Director of a venerable PRIVATE Swiss Bank.

I was dumbfounded by the ignorance of this individual in such an important position. Let me tell you, he did not have a clue!

Gold has been expunged from the mind of this man, and I suppose if he is so ignorant, the rest of his colleagues must be in a similar situation. For him gold is through, finished, Kaput, a thing of the past. He said, "The Central Banks don't really WANT any gold any more." Just those words.

The Swiss have many virtues, and I hope they keep them. But what is one to think when coming up with such a character?
I remember Orson Welles' line in "The Third Man": "What have the Swiss contributed to civilization? - The cuckoo clock."

Load up with gold, it's like taking candy from children at this point. It won't be so much longer. See my next post.

Sierra
Sierra Madre
Uh-Oh!!
For what it is worth, here is a message received today, from a prominent New Yorker:



King of Jordan has warned Bush he fears for his
life and could be assassinated at any time. President
Mubarek of Egypt believes he could be overthrown imminently and has so warned Bush. The Arabian street is in turmoil.
The situation is extremely fluid.

The CIA thought they had the Middle East under control
and I was assured that there was nothing to worry
about as little as two weeks ago. Now, they are
clearly alarmed.

DEBKA weekly says that 15 dinghies have been
discovered along Israel's shore carrying an
estimated 150 highly trained commandos possibly carrying
weapons of mass destruction and assessed to be working in
teams of three, or fifty teams. The security
breach is almost incomprehensible as this is the most
secure shoreline in the world with the Israelis and American fleets offshore and DEBKA believes that security
codes and technology has been compromised as in the 9-11
attack. In other words, there appears to be inside
help. Someone clearly wants the world turned
upside down.

This whole area could explode into a catastrophe.

Such a catastrophe would clearly wipe out any thought of Central Bank control of anything, and it is
questionable that this amateur hour over at the
Federal Reserve is capable of handling anything of
this magnitude.

DEBKA says that targets such as London and various
ones in the United States are on the highest alerts
and may be struck. This is the DEBKA weekly.

The situation is clearly different from that of
1973 and ten times more dangerous. It is even worse
than the Lebanon-Beirut invasion.

It is important to note again and again that the
international financial situation has never been at greater risk with over 60 trillion of counterparty risk in derivatives, and the international current account
imbalances almost unprecedented in magnitude and
proportion. The current account deficit of the United States alone is approaching 500 billion a
year, or 5% of the Gross Domestic Product, and the
net deficit position is approaching 3 trillion dollar or 30% of the GDP. There was nothing like
this in 1973 when the United States reigned supreme
as the world's greatest creditor and was able to successfully absorb the oil shock at extreme cost.
We had better men to handle it then.

It is questionable whether the international
financial system is resilient enough to handle an oil cutoff of the magnitude of 15 million barrels a day
of 76 million barrels produced to underpin the
world economy, and a collapse of that system would lead to the overthrow of the liberal regimes in the United States, England, Western Europe, Japan, etc. as in Germany in 1929 to 1933 that collapsed over similar current account imbalances. The political ramifications and consequences would be similar.

The Bush crowd, like that Gadarene herd of old, is
rushing like the possessed to a ruin that is almost without precedent since the old Christian monarchies were overthrown by the atheistical forces of international finance that have almost completely corrupted the western world in order to effectuate its submission. Benjamin Disraeli's novel, "Coningsby," tells the true story of the history of our time, and who was behind this.

.......

A worrisome message, indeed.

Sierra
Belgian
Deutsche Bank - Gold - Bundesbank Goldreserves ?
DB has most probably found the needed physical in the South African underground ? Crash the rand and it (the Gold) can be mined (faster). Combine a certain goldmine with the web of holocaust restitutions...? Add DB's introduction of derivatives (warrants) on SA mines (Gold Fields).
To be continued...
Henri
USAGold Msg 72899 Banker's Trust Intrigue
As I recall, at the tim of the BT defection over the pond, BT was a Federal Reserve Bank able to legally trade in gold certificates drawn on US Teasury gold in accordance with the the Federal Reserve Act. I expect they escaped holding a sizable quantity of these notes and that the US Treasury, not DB or the bundesbank is the party that is liable for delivery. This may be the origin of the 'custodial' gold designations. I also recall that those officers defecting to germany with BT drew very large compensations for their role in the coup (or their silence?). One has to beleive some serious monkey business went down here but then Rubin was still Sec of Treasury.

If you search the archives following the announcement of the merger, you may find I commented upon it then but not really knowing of what significance it was...(perhaps none)....just musings.
RobotGuy
Slingshot
There is an individual in this forum who has made it his priority to pretend he doesn't see what I have posted. He does this by reason of untrust. One thing I would like to convey is that I respect this individual's opinion very much, and that there was never an intentional attempt on my behalf to belittle this individual's opinion. Study previous posts, and you will see that I was the first to jump to this person's defense when a non-substianted post was delivered. The negative post has been deleted, however, the individual I defended's post remains. Do not forget, how feeble my opinion may seem, that I am capable of recognizing the fact that there are individuals in this forum who are very capable of presenting ligitimate ideas and arguments relevant to current discussions.
I participate in this forum because I seek knowledge that I do not posess, and opinions that I haven't considered. How big or how small a person may be, or how many similarities I might share with any individual will not deter me from speaking my opinion. Perhaps I might be banned by lack of interpretation of my intended message, but I would like to have you know that I do not participate in this forum for reasons of slander.
I would like to consider myself to be of above average intelligence as some have indicated to me through results of various tests of modern day science, however, as any truly intelligent person will tell you, I know nothing relatively speaking.
I am a physically/mentally active person, and this forum provides me with a link to others who are similar to myself, and in most cases much more informed.
As I have already stated, I am greatful for your response to my 'futile' quest, and you have managed to gain my respect as a logical straight-forward type individual.
I will look forward to exchanging ideas with you in the future.

Thank-you,

RobotGuy.
Pippin
Elliott Waves - a basic question
Is the Elliott Wave theory applicable to precious metals ?
USAGOLD
Pippin. . . .
In making my morning visit to this esteemed Hall, I saw your question and can provide something of a response. I am not an expert on Elliot Wave Theory, but I've always been intrigued with it because I too believe it reflects a rythmic pattern not just within the markets but applicable to other aspects of life on this planet -- including human history.

Can EWT be applied to gold?

It can and is -- with varying degrees of success. The entire plausibility of the theory in any given situation can be reduced to where the analyst puts the number "1" on the chart -- all else follows from there. The weakness in the theory is that it cannot readily predict at any given moment whether we have reached a top (or bottom) in an given numerical sequence, therefore the endless debate among proponents of the theory (and the introduction of mathematician Fibonacci to cover the price predicting "hole" in the theory).

For example, Robert Prechter, who I consider to be a brilliant economic and social analyst, has one count on the gold market which projects a bearish thesis. His mentor, British analysts AJ Frost, has a different count which projects us at the start of a long term bull market in gold which could stretch for many, many years. We (GC and I) were curious about Mr. Frost's EWT count some years ago and GC got his address from Mr. Prechter. Unfortunately, we came to find out the Mr. Frost was very ill, but still willing to forward his count. At the time he believed we were in a bottoming phase (long term) and about to go into a new (upward) cycle. We published it in News & Views some years ago and we could probably dig that up if we had to. Prechter sees the bottoming phase still in progress with a major spike down required to culminate the move. He then sees a springboard effect upward over a short period of time vaulting gold into the initial stages of a new bull market. As such, he recommends investors begin acquisition of physical now because the upside is so large and he projects a sharp "V" configuration to the downside.

My own view, and I am far from an expert on the subject, is closer to Frost's than Prechter's. I see the break from mid-1999 to be the initial stages of new, long term 1-2-3-4-5 (abc) with these first rumblings descriptive of the "1" Wave -- what Prechter calls the True-Believer phase. Both the chart and my personal experience confirm this. Being in the gold business for all these years, one thing I can do is identify the type of people buying gold and characterize them (to some degree). Today's buyers are the "True Believers" -- typical of the "1" wave. The trend buyers aren't in the market yet -- except on a limited basis -- and they characterize the "3" Wave -- or the steady, long term uptrend. The "5" wave buyers are herd instinct, madness of crowd types that come into the market at the end and provide sustenance to all the "1"s and "3"s. You don't want to be "5"; always better to be a "3"; even better to be a "1".

By the way, I hear from the good Professor von Braun that Rob't Prechter has just published a brilliant new essay which I hope to read sometime next week. I see the weakness in the RP analysis as not giving enough weight to the importance of the Washington Agreement and subsequent break over the $300 level -- which amounted to the first manifestations of the "1" Wave. As I say, I could be wrong, but that's the way I see it.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
A complete gold education! Order direct and save!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

YGM
Off Topic......(Sorry)
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2002/0326.htmThe other day someone questioned the reality of Red Mercury in Nukes, I believe. As I cannot remember who asked I'll just post this link....Again sorry for interupting the financial discussion ongoing (as it should be).....YGM

BTW>>I myself am not necessarily convinced of the veracity of this article, but do want answers to many questions, so I continue to read and question endlessly.....Posted links are the key to ongoing knowledge and understanding.....
Got any to share :o)
sector
@Pipin The answer to your question...
...flows from the reality of market manipulations.

As in the JPM/Hamanaka/Copper fraud [Case just closed this week], the commodity prices were [for copper] and are [for gold] under the sole control of the manipulator.

It really IS that simple...and also that complex when the supply of physical metal to sell runs dry.

One can examine all the wave theory in the universe and still end up with that reality. The London Gold Pool and many other examples abound.

The US [Or any other central government] does not view gold as wealth, they view un-backed paper as wealth therefore they cannot be lumped in with other gold market participants in a theory of action. This heterogeneous mix of players with different goals makes the Ellioit Wave Theories useless for today's gold market.

The more useful analysis tends toward viewing the government's actions in the context of a pending exhaustion of metal to sell.

The consequences of this exhaustion is a 10X devaluation as in 1971. So as we edge closer to the denouement, government actions should become more frenetic [As in the Jan FOMC statements about "...buying gold mines...any asset"], extreme [As in the long bond assassination] and predictable [as in Paul O�Neill's "�what recession? Comment].
Belgian
Deutsche Bank (DB) derivatives and Bundesbank Gold reserves ?
DB is the largest bank in the world by assets but trading barely over bookvalue. (EMU/US banks = 2,3/3,7 times bookvalue). This makes DB somewhat special not in the least that it is a possible take over target (?).
DB = Germany Incorporated as a very large Shareholder of German quoted stocks (Holding).

If (!) DB is in the need of Physical Gold to protect/consolidate its "unknown" derivative position...it (DB) will search for Physical Gold and find it ! Be it in some more minehedging on top of the 3.000 tonnes existing...or private Gold holders... or the Bundesbank 3.500 tonnes of reserves !
We don't have the slightiest clue on the *nature* and lifetime (volume-?) of the derivatives. Therefore we can't project/guess the amount of Physical needed and for how long and at what POG-level. All speculations are are indeed theory.

ECB Gold and EMU-members National Gold are different in nature and this must still have some space for discussion.
Is all this Physical Reserve Gold equal to euro-currency Gold-reserve ? How much of these total Gold Reserves can be used (consumed) for National emergencies or applications ?

Bottomline : The more Physical reserve that leaves the vaults...the higher POG/Valuation shall be / must be , once EMU will use Gold-Reserves for dollar-loss COMPENSATION !

At present the Japanese are the only savers in need and possibility (!) to accumulate (unexpectedly) more Physical than the gold-derivative architects (hum) ever could have expected. Kind of imponderabile that causes accidents.

So far no other holders of dollar/euro confetti felt the urge to start buying/accumulating abnormal/disturbing volumes of Physical Gold. And as long as POG doesn't give a signal (EW II), all is fine in LALA-Land(s).
No POG rise, no US$ decline...no US$ decline, no POG rise !

No default possible for DB or any Japanse or other banks !
The perfect managed world !? Only an infinitesimal minority has enough perception of the coming storm(s) to justify buying Gold coins at 300$ and holding them for revaluation at 3.000$ or 30.000$ !

If Welteke and or DB don't find the necessary Physical in this falsified goldmarket anymore...they will find another way of making the whole circus keeping afloat ! Selective and contained defaults and genial inventivity in all kinds of constructions is on its highs in this sub-culture.
Creative wizards can make derivatives appear and disappear on books and places.

Once this culture (?) hits the iceberg...the spotlights flash full power on the yellow and make it shine brightly.
Indiscriminately of how much tonnes of Physical remain in wich vault. Did we ever had full exposure or any kind of transparancy on the London Gold Pool affair ? No !
Today, Gold's transparancy is as dark as the new war-reporting. No pictures or pr�-fabricated (misleading) pictures and comments !

The only way of prooving your belief in Gold's future is by accumulating coin after coin. Give this 21 th century Gold Pool a hard time by Exchanging your honest deserved confetti for the most precious tangible ever. Participate in the paper-sub-culture at your peril. And don't count on other Japanese to exchange savings for Gold. The Argentinians had put their faith into the US$ and Honest Banks ! They didn't had the chance to scramble for Gold.
How many other people have that same faith and will be excluded from the life saving boat ? Talker Welteke and other more silent central bankers, know the value of Gold as a monetary reserve and realize very well that we will never know how much of it we will need, shortly !
Paper punters (banks) will be saved....with more of that same paper they produced and at worst with an absolute minimum of monetary reserve Gold. Plunder uncertain underground gold fist !
Siochain
Goldman & Morgan Stanley led Friday's assault (plus Rubin's new ally)
From Cafe

Gold was fixed in the AM in London at $300.80, followed by a PM Fix of $301. Demand was strong as evidenced by a quick pop in the price during the early New York trading session. Right after the pairing up of buyers and sellers at the PM Fix was finished, gold was trashed by Goldman Sachs, followed by a pelting from fired-up "Hannibal Cannibal" Morgan Stanley.

Funds were early buyers, except for one big fund that was selling above $300, basis April. Goldman and Morgan Stanley got shorter and shorter along with the locals as the Comex trading day went on. They tried to get the fund seller to blow out below $300, basis April, to precipitate stops. But their effort failed, as he would not sell down. Meanwhile, strong physical buying showed up on the gold price break from dealers. Near the close it became apparent that the orchestrated Gold Cartel ploy to bash the market would fail, so the pressing shorts covered, which caused the late run-up.

For the second day in a row, gold closed $2 off its lows. I cannot recall that happening before and gives credence to the notion that the cabal is having great difficulty in their efforts to bury gold again.

(Note to Trapper....I am staying with Schwab because their is no proof whether the shorting was for their account or clients...though as I mentioned,,,it is important that we all be sure that brokers cannot use our shares for shorting...you can call your broker to verify about your shares...and if they use for shorting,,,get it changed.

I will continue to post those banks/brokers etc that are actively working each day to take down gold...and would hope that any readers will consider moving their accounts or writing )

One other "interesting" tidbit:

Reuters Securities
Deutsche Bank hires Rubin as energy credit analyst

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a unit of Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), said on Friday it has hired Robert Rubin from Goldman Sachs & Co. (GS - news) as a senior investment-grade credit analyst covering the electric utility and energy sectors. Rubin had been responsible at Goldman Sachs for credit research in the utility, power and natural gas sectors, Deutsche Bank said. Previously, he was a credit analyst at Bear Stearns & Co., it said. Rubin will report to Marion Boucher-Soper, Deutsche Bank's head of U.S. investment-grade credit research.


Pippin
USAGOLD - Sector - Elliott Waves
I want to thank you both for having taken the time and made the effort to give me an answer.

Usagold: I obviously don't need Elliott Waves to know that I have to continue buying gold :-) but I find the subject fascinating and intellectually stimulating indeed ...although the gold trail is even more challenging for the newbie.

Sector: I understand. I wondered about the same question concerning the stock market and the impact of automatic trades generation by computers (Pension Funds and Mutual Funds particularly): they probably don't reflect the average investor's psychology either, so I don't know how they fit in the Elliott Waves system.

I believe it was in this forum that I read something about Kondratieff's cycles and waves. Any relationship with the Elliott waves, and any interest as far as gold is concerned?


Siochain
@YGM
I do not consider it off topic....but very pertinent.

Though I do not know much on the subject,,,I'd rather have info to check out ....both what may be happening and possible preparation

There is much going on that we are not hearing about...it bothers me that more info is often found in non-USA news while our mainstream media keeping mum and non questioning

Apparently the rule of the day is to keep the people in the dark and happy...doesn't sound like a republic to me!
Siochain
@Sierra Madre
Actually Debka had predicted that the King of Jordan and the President of Egypt would not attend the Arab Conference long before it was announced that they would not go ....Debka's reason was that credible details of assassinations had been picked up and taken quite seriously.

Belgian
Tony Blair Speech in the lone star state !
ONLY "ONE" ALL ENCLOSING WORD AT THE EPICENTER OF FUTURE ACTIONS AND POLICIES < LOUD AND CLEAR >:

******** OIL ******

For the rest I don't dare to express my opinion on the decodations of the speech !
uponroof
What happens to POG when US soldiers invade Iraq?
Just checking in.

Interesting middle east events underway.

The diminishing of the Israeli/Palestinian crisis through Bush/Blair politicizing is going to have a direct affect on POG.

First POG will retreat as those tensions ease. We'll probably see that this week. Perhaps even testing the low 290's.

This crisis 'easing', real or perceived, will signal the Bush administration to act quickly on another front. That being to renew the war on terrorism inside of Iraq....

after which POG will easily break the 307, and then 330 cielings.

FWIW.
TownCrier
A good reason for gold ownership
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020407/ap_on_re_mi_ea/blair_5------Many foreign leaders, including U.S. allies, worry about Bush's intentions. Chinese President Jiang Zemin, in remarks published Sunday, urged the United States to refrain from military action against Iraq. "International disputes cannot be solved by force," Jiang said.---------
---

The fate of the dollar -- perhaps moreso than any other single national currency -- rests in the global hands of "the market", and China is among those whose decisions to hold or to sell could "influence" the matter in no small way. A point of leverage for solving disputes without force, I'd say.

R.
Siochain
@YGM
I think one of the tests as to whether Sadam has those terrible weapons will be the outcome of the British talks...I find it hard to believe that if the USA has convincing proof of these new bombs in Iraqi Hands or placed in the US and elsewhere in the world that Blair would not support FAST removal...and that other European nations wouldn't support ...even if reluctantly
goldquest
Ah, Yes,
I used to enjoy visiting this site when it was still a gold forum!
Leigh
goldquest
If you go back a ways in the archives and the Hall of Fame, you'll find that this has always been a gold forum with oil overtones. Read Aristotle's series on Gold and Oil, or some of Another's old posts. For a long time, though, oil and the Middle East weren't in the news as they are today.
RobotGuy
Hmmmm, uh sorry folks.
Mental note to self, do not attempt to participate in an intellectual forum while heavily influenced by barley/malt nectars.
If there were an option to delete one's own post, I would have wisely exercised this option in a moment.
If I could figure out exactly what I was trying to say, I would translate it for you.

Please pay no attention to my previous post.

:)
Siochain
@Robot Guy
Hey...after doing some of the catch up reading and research on the net today...I think I need some of the barley!!!

Glad I've got gold too!!
goldquest
@Leigh
I stand corrected. I was just basing my thoughts on the title that proceeds the latest messages, "WELCOME TO TODAY"S GOLD DISCUSSION!" My apologies.
YGM
More fuel on the fires of protest...
http://www.arabia.com/afp/news/mideast/article/english/0,10846,177039,00.htmlOne can only wonder what the next week holds....
BTW...world events to my mind "ARE" the singlemost important factor affecting Gold/PM prices. Therefore it stands to reason talk of same is not detracting from Gold but adding to insight and reasons for owning same. One big difference between here and over-there is lack of censorship. Civility and in the case of off topic comments, then brevity is or should be respected..IMHO

"GO GATA & GO PHYSICAL"
goldquest
correction message #72923
make that precedes.
slingshot
RobotGuy
Ah, The Nectar of the Gods.Hang in there RobotGuy for it may be a long trip to the End of the Rainbow. :o)
Slingshot-----------------<>
Privateer
Privateer copyright infringement
Siochain (04/07/02; 16:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 72917)

Your entire message - and the previous one - is lifted verbatim from the latest (April 7 - Number 447) issue of The Privateer. You have quoted the first three pages in their entirety.

Any Privateer subscriber reading your posts can veryify this with the latest issue, which was emailed yesterday.

You have trampled all over my COPYRIGHT - which is stated right on the newsletter, you have also done so with woefully inadequate attribution.

MK, having been given the opportunity to include some of my material on your site, I know you for an honourable individual. I would appreciate it if you would pull Sochain's two postings, as they are in blatant copyright violation.



Siochain
@Privateer
I sincerly apologized..I believe I did refernce from Privateer at the begiining of the first post and then wrote and further...I thought the paragraphs/analysis were of such importance that they needed to be shared...again my apologies
USAGOLD
Privateer. . . .
I wish you well my swashbuckling friend. I know many appreciate your analysis. We do not need freebies here. Siochain has posted the appropriate apology and the posts are gone as I know Siochain would have it. So, can we get you to post something of interest to the Table that might interest us all? Please attach a link back to your site -- on the house. MK
Privateer
From The Privateer to USAGold and Soichain
http://www.the-privateer.comThank you MK, and thanks for the opportunity to post my link

Siochain, I do appreciate your evaluation of my analysis. I know that there is a great tendency, especially amongst people who take ideas seriously, to want "everybody" to read stuff they deem worthwhile. I do NOT think you had any other reason for posting my material. Your apology is accepted.

Cavan Man
Privateer,USAGOLD,Siochain
Thank you all. I am reminded to renew my subscription.
Cavan Man
Iraq: end game?
Despite MP and Brit Military "unease"....Blair backs military action to topple Saddam

British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair tonight risked a furious row with a significant element in his own Labour Party by threatening military action to topple Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's "brutal" regime.

Mr Blair pledged there would be no "precipitive action" but delivered a blunt warning to Saddam that he had to allow weapons inspectors back into his country "any time, any place that the international community demands".

The British Prime Minister's toughest talk yet on Iraq came in a speech at the George Bush Senior Presidential Library in College Station, Texas, after two days of talks with the present president, George W Bush.

Mr Blair said: "We must be prepared to act where terrorism or weapons of mass destruction threaten us.

"The fight against international terrorism is right. We should pursue it vigorously, not just in Afghanistan but elsewhere ... Since September 11 the action has been considerable, in many countries, but there should be no let up.

"If necessary the action should be military and again, if necessary and justified, it should involve regime change."

In recent weeks nearly 150 backbench MPs, most of them Labour and several of them former government ministers, have signed a Commons early day motion expressing "deep unease" at Britain's potential involvement in any military action against Iraq.

Tonight one of the EDM's signatories, former Labour minister Ms Glenda Jackson, branded Mr Blair's comments "irresponsible".

Ms Jackson said: "I think it is very irresponsible to be upping the rhetoric with regard to any possible action on Iraq without the relevant evidence that Saddam is engaged in the creation of weapons of mass destruction and has the ability to deliver them.

"Until that potential has been verified, the international community should be concentrating on what is already happening in the Middle East."

In his speech, Mr Blair said the international community could not intervene in all cases "but where countries are engaged in the terror or weapons of mass destruction business, we should not shirk from confronting them".

Mr Blair said he hoped Syria, Iran and North Korea could be persuaded to reform.

But he went on: "As for Iraq, I know some fear precipitive action. They needn't. We will proceed, as we did after September 11th, in a calm, measured, sensible but firm way.

"But leaving Iraq to develop weapons of mass destruction in flagrant breach of no less than nine separate United Nations Security Council resolutions, refusing still to allow weapons inspectors back to do their work properly, is not an option.

The regime of Saddam is detestable, brutal, repressive, political opponents routinely tortured and executed.

"It is a regime without a qualm in sacrificing the lives of its citizens to preserve itself, or starting wars with neighbouring states and it has used chemical weapons against its own people.

"The moment for decision on how to act is not yet with us. But to allow weapons of mass destruction to be developed by a state like Iraq without let or hindrance would be grossly to ignore the lesson of September 11 and we will not do it.

"The message to Saddam is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in, anyone, any time, any place, that the international community demands."

PA

� The Irish Times/ireland.com
Canuck
Silver Bugs
As I mentioned last week I am reading a great book about the silver bull run of Oct. 1979 - Mar. 1980. I am nearly finished and will probably re-read importants sections thereafter.

This is what I have picked up so far:

Although unreal amounts of money are bet whether silver will be X or Y in a given month, the 'bet' is simply that; the winner takes the losers money. It is rare that silver changes hands, in fact less than 2 or 3% of the time. As at the 'track' (as ORO pointed out) vast sums of money are placed on various horses (ie: their time to run the race) There is no interest in the horse, the horse owner, the track itself or for anything involving the track; the winner takes the losers money.

Perhaps if horse races were being outlawed there might be a vested interest in purchasing the horse?

If the commodities betting arena (ie Comex) is betting heavy on the price to drop it HAS INFLUENCE on the price of the real thing to drop; and conversely, likewise. Should one appreciate the 'paper' price, definitely but the betting price (ie of silver) is not the price of (physical) silver.

During the fall of '79 it appeared that several physical longs were going to suddenly 'take delivery' and force a 'squeeze'. If the longs had intention to hold their position the price would skyrocket and the shorts would be trapped. The rule makers changed the rules (apparently often) so that the physical trap could not be set. It was very disconcerting for COMEX that the longs would take delivery. This apparently was the key to the squeeze. I feel it paramount to mention that the seizing of physical was the setup. I also feel it important to mention that as paper longs came to play, endless paper shorts appeared to squash any trend. As silver rose the weak shorts went bankrupt leaving only a handful of shorts to battle only a handful of longs.

Comex changed the rules in the favor of the shorts repeatedly to end the bleeding. The paper markets almost lost 'connection' to the physical price. This has been mentioned numerous times on this forum, the paper/physical disconnect.

Notice to 'take delivery' played a vital role in 79/80, it may again as we see the quantity of shorts narrow to any a handful. Thanks to Mr. Butler for continuing reports.

I read on...............

Canuck
What?
"Ms Jackson said: "I think it is very irresponsible to be upping the rhetoric with regard to any possible action on Iraq without the relevant evidence that Saddam is engaged in the creation of weapons of mass destruction and has the ability to deliver them."

It is rumoured that Ms. Jackson has no opinion of the fact that the Iraqi leader pays people to strap dynamite and bombs around their waists and blow up civilians in restaurants.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Just a ramble before the Rumble
The morass of the paper gold pushers is not to be taken seriously, friends in gold! It is as simple as this to me. I walked into the seafood shop and wanted to buy a dozen crabs. There were some live ones in a bucket in the window. The man says "Its only a dollar extra to have them steamed". I know they sell old dead cooked re-steamed crabs after they do the switcheroo behind the backcounter and not wanting to die prematurely, I said "No thankyou I want the real live ones. I could hear him curse under his breath as he picked up the dozen wigglers. He probably was selling crabs that died all day long to dummies who bought "steamed crabs". It's no different with gold. The "live gold" market RULES and the paper dead-gold market WILL GET TRASHED in the process of time. What fool is going to part with physical gold at the dead gold price? Well we just have a few too many live crabs in the window. Once physical delivery orders back up and can't be filled, it will start a bidding "premium" war. "yes I can fill your order but the premium has increased". This will happen all over. Gold cannot sell for 312 "physical" in India and for 299 "paper"in New York at the with half a day apart. BIFURCATION will occur and the futures contracts redeamed in dollars will be trashed with a falling dollar. Like bailing out your boat as it goes over the falls. Dual markets occur once new supplies cannot be secured for sales. We can have peace in the mideast, gold will still rise. When have the Japanese ever parted with things real. They are an old world mentality. Gold buryers, all of them. We have nothing to fear the Japanese housewives are here. Joe sixpack is one day going to one day roll out of bed and want to buy an ounce of gold. It's like the fear of impotence. I GOT NO GOLD...........bummer dewd......gotta go get some. Pronto. So it's 1849 all over at your corner coin store getting ripped of with excessive premiums. Lemmings a leapin. Like volume dries up before the breakout. What no one has everyone will want.

Britian--which way did it go, euro or buck? They physically have to join the euro but their assets are in America. So if the dollar falls they loose. If they don't integrate with the EU they stagnate and become a swamp. Expect some eloquent double talk while royalty rigs their yachts for New Zealand.

Japan--with "the mob" instead of the SEC, senile reformers who never figured out that they could have become the Switzerland of Asia back when they had strong yen. Now it's a whitewashed basket case.

China--bonds for Taiwan....you take down those hotels on New York, Tenessee, and St. James Avenue and I'll let you pass since you landed on my hotel on Boardwalk.

Mideast Peas Process--They call for a ceasefire because its difficult to prepare sand bags with snipers active. It gives them time to dig in, finish some concrete, string up some razor wire, mourn for the dead, father to son chats, etc. Have to brief the troops on all the new lands they now own.

Price of Oil--Duke,duke,duke...duke of Earl...duke,duke....nothing can stop.....the Duke of Earl. The drainplug of the American Empire. No, don't touch that dial. TXCO...look at the pattern....whiskey on steriods. Hold your horses because that's what we're all going to be driving if we mess with Iraq. They'll never nuke us. They can nuke the oilfields and let us eat cake. Like a complicated chess game during an earthquake. MADD---mutually assured "Daddy we just want to move in with you".

The book you can read to heed..."The Great Reckoning" by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees Mog. A Classic you gotta have it. If you never read it you just aren't scared enough. 3 inches thick and too real to enjoy. Macroeconomic theory in a non-linear world of spoof economic policy voodoo.

I love my country too so don't be scorning this above like I don't bleed red, white, and a Hue of blue. I'm a realist. Those not saying truth are supressing it. Dig your shelter and pray it won't be your grave. The priests bear rule by their own means and my people love to have it so and what will ye do in the end thereof. Two bit superficial plastic church religion, where everyone pays and nobody prays.. thats why fiat will fail. The Almighty isn't getting "good vibes" from the lower 48. The house of cards is all held together with the His glue. When it's to come down, it's coming down.







mikal
As financial news zeroes in on scandal and dissappointment, the world economies future is darkened, at times shrouded from view by stories such as this: future
http://timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_ID=6186067

MONDAY, APRIL 08, 2002
THE TIMES OF INDIA Israel needs three more weeks to finish operation
AFP�[ SUNDAY, APRIL 07, 2002��8:39:55 PM ]
JERUSALEM: The Israeli army needs around three more weeks to complete its military sweep of Palestinian towns and cities in the West Bank, chief of staff General Shaul Mofaz told parliament on Sunday.
"We need at least four weeks from the beginning of the operation. Eight weeks would be much better for the second step," said Mofaz, who sent in his tanks and troops to Ramallah on March 27 before re-occupying most other West Bank towns.
He did not specify what the second step might be, but said the political leadership was examining the situation. "After that we'll withdraw but we will deploy our forces in a different way to before," he said.
Operation Defensive Wall, as Israel calls its invasion of Palestinian self-rule towns, has been underway for 10 days, plunging the West Bank into frenzied fighting and sending shockwaves through the region........click link for more
sector
Bay Area Housing Inflation...In a Recession?...It Seems So...Sounding Like the Late 70's Every Day
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/04/07/IN110083.DTLREAL ESTATE
How High Can Home Costs Go?
California's castles in the air defy the law of gravity

Louis Freedberg, Insight Senior Writer Sunday, April 7, 2002

When it comes to the Bay Area housing market, it's as if the dot-com collapse and the other economic setbacks of the past two years never happened.

As traffic eased up on Bay Area highways because there were fewer commuters traveling to work, housing prices were supposed to ease up too.

But we're right back to the familiar rituals of mobbed open houses, competing offers and houses selling for way above the asking price. "After all the economic upheaval of the past few months, I never expected it to be this crazy," said Norma Sayage, the owner-broker of Realty Executives in Millbrae.

In fact, she added, it's as crazy as it was a year and a half ago. The competition these days is not only for single family homes, but for multi-unit buildings, where multiple offers have become the norm. What on Earth is going on?

By conventional economic rules, the Bay Area's unemployment rates should have had a dampening effect on the housing market. "If people are hurting for jobs, they shouldn't be jumping over themselves to get a home," said Sayage.

But people are continuing to jump, lured by low interest rates and fears of investing in anything they can't see (like hidden partnerships or inexplicable derivatives).

Housing prices in the Bay Area did go down, briefly. In February, the last month for which figures are available, they declined by 2 percent from a year ago.

Big deal.

The median cost of a Bay Area house is still $373,000, down from $381,000 a year ago. Housing prices dropped 14 percent in San Mateo County, the biggest decrease of any Bay Area county. But they're still far above what most people can reasonably afford. In San Francisco, the median price is $504,000; in Burlingame, it's $782,000, and in Tiburon, a cool $1.4 million. In Contra Costa, Solano and Napa counties, home prices increased by 5 percent or more over the
Sierra Madre
Blair, you're one tough hombre...

Yeah, sure, real tough guy...

But what we shall NEVER EVER hear you say is:

"The message to Sharon is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in, anyone, any time, any place, that the international community demands."

Because you know very well who can whup your....

Right?

Sierra

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Upside resistance levels: The Shadows Knows
If the POG breaks 320 and holds for a month, then it begins a derivatives short covering meltdown. What would the Cabal do in such a scenario? Simple, it's a replacement of shorting attack at a new higher level. "We can't hold it below 300 so we'll move to 350 and attack it from there." That is what I think it will do. And they will finance the merger mania of hedged after unhedged producers to get their gold sold forward.

But....Once the Chinese see the profits the Japanese made buying gold....Then the Koreans will be choking on their kimchee not owning enough gold.....full scale buying frenzy in the ricelunds.
timbervision
From FOA
"A simple person can control his controllers by staying out of debt and owning a wealth no government can dictate the value of: Gold Bullion!"


FOA in his posts describes how there will not be a deflationary depression rather an inflationary one. And in his 10/25/01 #125 post he asks the question "So what does this have to do with Real estate?". After reading what he had to say I wasn't clear how one might handle their real estate investments in preparation for this coming inflationary spiral. Because FOA recommends we get out of debt, is this necessary, provided one locks in a multi-year fixed interest rate. The debt could then be paid off with inflated dollars. Even if one couldn't get a long term (low relative to the rising inflationary rates) fixed rate of interest, say on a credit card balance, would it still not be better now to use any spare cash to buy gold instead of paying off debt. Since gold is set to rise quickly and then inflate with inflation wouldn't one be better off buying gold vs. paying off debt?

Any thoughts from anyone would be appreciated.

Also does FOA's inflationary argument apply equally to other currencies, for example the Canadian dollar?
darkhorse
@Timbervision
There's quite a few big IF's to your questions. You're asking "...would it still not be better now to use any spare cash to buy gold instead of paying off debt. Since gold is set to rise quickly and then inflate with inflation wouldn't one be better off buying gold vs. paying off debt?" Well, maybe so...

IF you and FOA are right about "...there will not be a deflationary depression rather an inflationary one." and "The debt could then be paid off with inflated dollars." Inflated dollars (as long as you've still got your income) would go further towards more "old" debt, but if deflationary times come after you've run up all that debt you're in serious trouble (still assuming you've got your job).

IF you're right that gold would go up, fast. If it doesn't go up as much/as fast as you figured, you may get caught that way also.

Let's compare it with the idiots, uh, investors that took out a second mortgage and max'd out their credit cards to get more cash to invest in the tech mania. I'm sure they were thinking along the same lines as you are asking, but it most definitely didn't go the way they thought it would. How do you think those people are sleeping these days (nights)? IMHO, better to accumulate what you can, when you can without going further into debt. Just basic ideas, I'm sure you can get a better answer from quite a few people here. A wise man always seeks good counsel.
TownCrier
Guilty or not, there will be a growing taint to build upon that of A.Andersen and Enron
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020407/markets_bonds_goldman_2.htmlGoldman Sachs falls under scrutiny

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An investigation by U.S. regulators into Treasury bond trading at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. could break new legal ground if it leads to the first-ever charges against a Wall Street firm for insider trading of U.S. government securities.

...The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has asked Goldman for information about its dealings in 30-year bonds on the morning of Oct. 31, 2001, when the Treasury triggered an explosive bond rally by announcing it would suspend sales of the one-time benchmark issue.

Goldman Chief Executive Henry Paulson told his firm's shareholders on Friday that a private consultant who was in the Treasury press room on Oct. 31 called the firm with early news that the government would suspend future sales of 30-year bonds.
-------(click URL for more)--------

Where can you turn when all on Wall Street appears tainted?

Gold remains unstained, shining brightly as a beacon of unassailable integrity and wealth. Call Centennial and get your order in the pipeline.

R.
timbervision
darkhorse
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your thoughts and understand exactly what you mean by the "IF's". I sold my house recently and now rent, and used the proceeds to pay off my mortgage, some debt, and buy gold. My remaining debt is relatively manageable. Partly what led me to ask the question is that I've been suggesting to some people to get out of debt and get into gold and one friend has sold his 5 condo rental properties. Until I reread FOA's point about inflation not deflation, I'd been thinking that the housing bubble was the next to go, and thus a major deflation in housing was pending. I wrote my question partly from worry that my suggestions might not necessarily have been the best or at least critically necessary.

Thanks again. "Just basic ideas" can't go too wrong.
Golden Bear
TownCrier (msg#: 72942)
Greetings TC,

your post intrigued me, having earlier read Siochain's msg#: 72909. Rubin is renowned as a shrewd trader, and I'm wondering whether he has just established himself a lifeboat to jump the Titanic, oops Goldman ship if/when they are taken to trial...

Cheers.
Black Blade
Oil Embargo Is On!

Just coming over the wires - Iraq suspends oil exports for 30 days or until Israel withdraws from West Bank. Iran is expected to follow with similar sanctions and Venezuelan strike at petroleum production facilities set for Tuesday.

Rocket attacks along the Lebanon and Israel border are intensifying as this second front opens up. Gun battles in West Bank cities Jenin and Nablus are intensifying. Jordan king expresses concern that stability in Jordan is threatened and riots break out in Rabat, Morrocco. Assassination attempt on government ministers in Afghanistan kills bystanders. The Middle East looks to get rocked.

Oil prices are rising fast just jumped over $27.00/bbl. Meanwhile Gold is comatose at $299/oz. We live in "Interesting Times".
Golden Bear
Breaking News!
Report from CNN TV:

Saddam Hussein has stopped all oil exports for period of 30 days - to punish (in his words) the Zionists and the Americans... the events of the 70's loom larger, hmmm.


Golden Bear
(No Subject)
Nice to see you manning the fort as always BB. Currently looking for a live spot crude chart.

Cheers.
Black Blade
Europe Awash In Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are solidly in the red and sinking more as the POO rises on new "Oil Embargo". On CNBC Jim Cramer is pleading with people to sell their oil stocks. Hmmm...

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Petroleum (Oil, Distillates and Natural Gas) Higher, Market Futures Lower, PM's Comatose
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Petroleum prices are rising, market futures are sharply lower from a few minutes ago, and PMs are slowing recovering. Could be an "Interesting" day on Wall Street. Trading volumes have been sharply lower on the NY exchanges for the last several weeks and will likely continue to be light as more earnings warnings and lowered "guidance" is revealed.

- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
BBC: Tit for Tat - Saddam vs Blair
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_1916000/1916755.stmIraqi leader Saddam Hussein has announced that his country will stop all its oil exports for the next month.
In a televised address, Saddam said Baghdad would decide its next move after 30 days or when Israel withdrew unconditionally from the Palestinian territories.
Senior leaders had decided "in the name of the people of Iraq ... to stop exporting oil totally as of this afternoon through pipelines flowing to Turkish ports and the south for 30 days" unless Israel withdrew, he said.
Earlier, the Iraqi leader responded defiantly to calls for some future military action against Baghdad by Washington and London.
This followed direct warnings by British Prime Minister Tony Blair that action would be taken if Iraq failed to let United Nations weapons inspectors back into the country without conditions.
===
How can the invader of Wales and Scotland (and England)oppose Saddam's invasion of Kuwait? (And what did the ancestors of W do with the Indians?) So why can Saddam not be allowed to develop weapons of mass destruction?
Black Blade
Oil Rises as Venezuela, Mideast Raise Supply Fears
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020408/markets_oil_14.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices recouped pre-weekend losses on Monday as a strike by oil workers in Venezuela and intensifying violence in the Middle East rekindled concerns over security of crude supplies.

Black Blade: Add to this Iraqi "Oil Embargo". CNBC Trolls said that Iraqi oil is "insignificant", and that oil will come from Mexico and Venezuela. I hate to burst their bubble but Iraq supplies about 10% of US imported oil and Venezuela may not be too reliable, as far as Mexico is concerned, they don't have much wiggle-room in oil production these days. Don't count on Russia to supply extra oil as they haven't cut production in spite of agreements with OPEC. If Iran joins Iraq as threatened, then will see supply problems develop.
Black Blade
Eurostocks Slip Further on Iraq Action
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020408/markets_europe_stocks_46.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - European stocks extended their losses at midsession on Monday after Iraq suspended oil exports, a move that sent oil shares higher on the back of soaring crude prices.


Black Blade: Euro stocks are fading fast. Meanwhile in the ME, Israeli troops set fire to Christian shrine (Church of the Nativity) and shoot Palestinian worker trying to put out flames. The situation in the ME is getting worse � not better.
Black Blade
Venezuela President Fires Oil Execs
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020408/venezuela_oil_protest_2.html
Venezuela's President Fires Seven State Oil Execs; Businesses, Unions Gear for Second Strike

Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- President Hugo Chavez dismissed seven dissident oil executives, moving to crush a revolt against the leadership of Venezuela's state oil monopoly that had threatened the production of one of the United States' top crude suppliers.

Chavez also announced Sunday that he had forced the retirement of 12 other employees at Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, and warned there would be more firings if the monthlong protest continued. But rebellious workers -- who are upset by recent government appointments to top company posts they say were political -- ignored his threats, staging a rowdy protest at the company's Caracas headquarters.


Black Blade: The Marxist "El Presidente" may have bitten off more than he can chew. I doubt that he will have enough support in the military to force the workers back on the job. It looks like a major US supplier may not be bringing in the crude. Tough times ahead for the US economy? Maybe so.

Golden Bear
Oil and it's link to 9/11 - real streaming video
http://clients.encoding.com/imc/philly/02-03-16-201227.ramDiscusses the geopolitical implications of oil in the past, present and future. Essential viewing.

miner49er
timbervision @ 72940
Greetings, Sir timbervision -

Let me to reiterate another concept forwarded by Another, FOA, and echoed here by others. Buy gold as your understanding allows.

In other words, don't be moved by fear or greed. Typically people never feel they've accumulated enough. They are always afraid the train is leaving the station, and they're not ready to go yet. Or, let's face it, we don't like to admit it publicly, but we all have done the math ("hmmm... let's see $300 oz --> $30,000... wow...! Say, what about $50,000???).

If fear or greed drive an individual, it is to these that the individual has become enslaved. Better to be enslaved by your own rational understanding, rather than emotion. Your understanding can always be improved. Emotion can be just as intense for the fool, as well as the sage, and is thus a poor guide for decision making.

The purpose of owning gold, is not an end in itself. Remember, it is a STORE of wealth. It represents the savings of the excess earned from your own productive efforts. Ultimately, you or your forebears will spend it. Hopefully, prudently. In spending it, it is hoped that what they get in return fairly represents the toil and sweat you expended today to obtain it. By saving gold you attempt to store this potential wealth as best as possible in something that gives you maximum freedom from the whims of our "controllers," and likewise best represents the future value of these productive efforts engaged today, anywhere, and at anytime.

What is unique about today, is what FOA calls a "political gift" for those who have eyes to see it. Gold, for all the reasons this forum discusses, is artificially way, way under its true price, if it were let free from the leash of official systemic management. This gives the added punch of an extremely rare prospect of a most significant investment return as an added bonus. This is something you or I will never see again in our lifetime.

Wealth represents "well-being." If you did sell your house, and use the proceeds to buy gold, how will you sleep at night..., now? Suppose gold languishes another year, two years..., five years? Are you so convinced of the dynamics surrounding this issue, that you won't waiver, and get afraid, and end up selling at a loss, and swearing to never own gold again? Or will you live as best as we mere mortals can, living as much as possible in peace and quiet, while steadily accumulating a tried and true wealth store for your future, as well as those who come after you? And acquiring it without the frenzy of "what if..." that impels so many, that makes you no better off than the speculators who are always on the edge, always monitoring the price of everything they've gambled on...

Better to just acquire gold steadily, as you have the means, and do it as your understanding of these issues gives you freedom and peace to do so.

cheers,
miner
USAGOLD Market Commentary
Gold Starts Week Higher, Iraq Rekindles Embargo FearsNEWS & VIEWS Update!
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Belgian
OIL and GOLD
This present flaring oil battle/struggle/war will reach a much higher peak as the ones we witnessed in the past 50 years ! And it is not only the *cheap* ME oil that is targetted but ALL oil ! Venezualan ...Angolan (Savimbi-kill)...Nigerian (another 200 deaths)...Russian/Caspian oil and gas fields ! Tony Blair has been shining Bush's shoes in his yesterday's speech. He's in the oil-club now and will never ever have any meaning in or for Euroland !

These Gigantic geopolitical efforts for Oil-Control by the dollar-block are the same efforts that, though less visible, are brought up to Control Gold ! The analogy on both (gold/oil) are to be found in the efforts to deviate the looming total economical collapse ! An interdependant global economy that can't survive (its present nature) a sustained POO above the 40$ or a POG that crushes the worthless dollar to its true proportions !

This massive global Oil offensive is the REASON for WAT+WMD and NOT the RESULT of war !!!!! Don't tell this to the sheeple !!!! The *Civilized* (???) part of the world knows what is best for all of us ??? Here I'm getting furious (sorry).
The Dutch and UK royals (+ Bush-clan) are the biggest shareHolders of the underground oil !

Islamic and Jewish hostilities will be exported and rising emotions will ripen ordinarry citizens for more and easier manipulation, with needless suffering as a consequence.
And ad nauseum...all this...with quasi gratis Gold for the few (right miner49er ?) !
USAGOLD
All. . . Variation on a Theme by Belgian
I have this image in my mind of the Iraqi and Kuwaiti ministers hugging at an Arab conclave signalling to all present that by-gones will be by-gones. That was a symbolic event -- not just for Iraq and Kuwait but for the entirety of the Arab world and particularly the Gulf -- a radical patching it up with a monarchist. What is different this time is that Islamic fundamentalists are a concern within the theocratic monarchies as well as the socialist states where for the most the fundamentalists are already in power. When Isama bin Laden hit the World Trade Center, he was also setting his sights on Saudi Arabia -- the key to Western oil flows. To cover its flank, the Gulf monarchies must seem Arab first, suppliers to the West second. They must play to their populations or risk revolution -- Iran-style. Reports at the time said bin Laden wanted oil over $100 (if I remember correctly). In order for he monarchies to stay in power, they must cater to the rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism within their borders -- a deadly game. In the past, the financial markets could look to Saudi Arabia (for example) to pump up oil production to cover the deficit. Will they do it now? That is the key question the market will be asking themselves starting today. A report in the New York Times yesterday related how continental Europe had a far different attitude toward the Middle East than what appears to be the American largely pro-Isareli mind set. Europeans are not as concerned with the threat from Iraq and for the most part they come down on the side of the Palestinians as they have for a long time. This makes it difficult for the US to mount the same coalition that made the first Gulf War possible. Without European support and because the monarchies have their backs to the wall, the door is open for a strong push for higher oil prices which in turn will ignite inflation throughout the industrialized world along with the demand for gold. The Japanese by luck, circumstance and the survival instinct are simply ahead of the curve.
sector
JPM: Ringleader in Enron Fraud and Financial Treachery...So...what ELSE is New
04/08 01:42
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase Named in Enron Complaint (Update1)
By Patrick Oster

Houston, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse First Boston and Merrill Lynch & Co. are among nine banks accused by Enron Corp. shareholders of engaging in ``an enormous Ponzi scheme'' to inflate Enron stock prices and make billions for themselves in the process.

The banks made misleading statements about Enron's income and debt that deceived shareholders in a ``grand illusion'' of phony profits and sham transactions, the plaintiffs say in their expanded version of an earlier suit. Enron was a ``hall of mirrors inside a house of cards,'' said the 502-page document, which will be filed later today in federal court in Houston.

The complaint, and a similar one to be filed on behalf of Enron employees, is aimed at asset-rich defendants by plaintiffs who say they lost $23 billion in Enron's collapse. Once the world's largest energy trader, Enron lost almost $70 billion in market value and is now mired in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Some 5,000 workers have been fired.

The latest accusations against the banks mark a new chapter in the unfolding scandal, alleging that some of the wealthiest institutions in the world are implicated. Still, legal experts say the plaintiffs face difficult obstacles in proving their case and winning the billions in damages they seek.

Novel Interpretation

For example, the companion employees' suit is expected to make novel use of a federal statute originally aimed at organized crime, said Robert Prentice, a business law professor at the University of Texas.

The shareholders and bond owners rely principally on federal securities laws, which require very detailed allegations of fraud in a complaint. To win damages, they must show a defendant made a material false statement or committed some manipulative act they relied on.

``We believe that our business dealings with Enron were entirely appropriate and therefore we think there is no merit to the lawsuit,'' Daniel Noonan, a Citigroup spokesman said last week. Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch and J.P. Morgan declined to comment last week when questioned about the expected suits.

The banks named in the complaint include Bank of America, Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank, Lehman Brothers and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. They couldn't be reached for immediate comment.

The complaint also adds several former directors of Enron and former executives of Arthur Andersen LLP, the nation's fifth largest accounting firm and Enron's auditor for 16 years.

Individuals Named

They include former Andersen Chief Executive Joseph Berardino; Andersen's chief Enron auditor, David Duncan, and Andersen lawyer Nancy Temple, who sent out an e-mail that Duncan said ordered destruction of Enron documents. The shredding was the basis for a March 7 federal indictment charging Amdersen with obstruction of justice.

The individuals couldn't be reached for comment.

The shareholders' complaint also names Enron's principal law firm, Houston-based Vinson & Elkins, and another law firm, Chicago- based Kirkland & Ellis, which advised off-the-books partnerships Enron used to misstate income and debt.

``There is no basis to add Kirkland & Ellis to the Enron lawsuits,'' Laurence Urgenson, a partner in the firm, has said.

Pocketing Billions

``This fraudulent scheme,'' the shareholders' complaint said. ``enabled defendants to pocket billions of dollars of legal, accounting, auditing and consulting fees, underwriting commissions, interest and credit facility payments, cash bonuses based on Enron's reported earnings and its stock performance.''

With the federal obstruction-of-justice indictment threatening Andersen's survival, the suit also adds Arthur Andersen Worldwide, an umbrella group of Andersen's independent overseas affiliates. Chicago-based Andersen LLP has lost more than 100 clients since Enron declared bankruptcy.

Shares of the energy trader fetched $90.75 in August 2000. They traded for 33 cents last week.

A February report commissioned by Enron's board said the company's top executives, including founder Ken Lay and former Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling, amassed fortunes while workers lost their life savings and many investors fared almost as badly.

Financing Partnerships

The key charge in today's suit against the banks is that they helped Enron finance the off-the-books partnerships while many of them sold Enron stock or bonds to the public at inflated values.

For example, J.P. Morgan helped Enron hide almost $4 billion in debt in the partnerships, some of which were controlled by Enron's former chief financial officer, Andrew Fastow, the complaint said.

J.P. Morgan made ``huge underwriting and consulting fees'' and some of its top executives were permitted to invest in one partnership, LJM2, earning them guaranteed profits before the scheme fell apart, it said.

At the same time, the bank's analysts promoted the sale of Enron stock and bonds to an unsuspecting public while bank executives were aware of the true state of Enron's finances.

Citigroup, whose executives were in daily contact with Enron's top officials, was a principal lender to Enron, helping it to maintain an unjustified investment-grade credit rating and to finance some of the partnerships, the complaint said. Citigroup kept its own credit exposure to a minimum because of its knowledge of Enron's true finances, the complaint said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Federal Reserve's largest bank [JPM] is now wallowing in yet more charges of fraud. Only last week it finally settled the damages portion of its Sumitomo/Hamanaka/Copper market fraud. Recall that JPM was formally convicted. In that fraud, they set up secret offshore accounts for Hamanaka to short copper [Not informing Sumitomo's management]. Sumitomo ate $2 Billion in losses. The piddling $125 Million settlement no doubt masked back door payments [Vie BOJ] to make Sumitomo whole.

On top of this Enron stench, GoldGate's stealth facts are weighing on JPM too. Their protestations of innocence in both scandals now sound particularly hollow.

Let us all wait breathlessly for the Fed Chairman to pipe up about JPM's "Solid performance"...or perhaps..."Its marvelous use of derivatives"...or perhaps its timely "Management" of "Volatile commodities" which aided the US in its time of post 9/11 "Need".

Better yet, we yet might hear that the Chairman "Can't control" EVERY aspect of the bank's operations...somewhat akin to Mr. Arafat's "Inability to Control" Al Aqsa.

JPM's and the Fed's mission has always been to destroy gold...no matter what they may say in public.

The Fed has been found out.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

GOLD

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

Old Yeller
Fannie and Freddie under scrutiny
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020408/financial_mortgages_review_2.html
Oh-oh,that's a dangerous minefield to dance in.
Jon
Mahendra says buy tech shares
IBM off 10% today!
TownCrier
Jensen claims in his latest column: "Pro-Israeli bias stifles needed debate"
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020406.htmlJensen writes:
-------Pro-Israel bias is so ingrained in our government, media and public consciousness that anyone who sympathizes with the Palestinians or tries to explain the Arab point of view is immediately labeled "anti-Israel." Some have been called "anti-Semitic." And Jews who dare to question are branded "self-haters."

Ironically, there is a far healthier debate on these issues in Israel than here. In Jerusalem, I asked an Israeli colleague, who writes pretty much what I write, whether he received hate mail. "Only from American Jews," he replied.-----

Jensen concludes with these remarks:

------As Michael Lind points out in a thoughtful article for the British magazine Prospect, "What is needed is a debate between those who want to link U.S. support for Israel to its behavior, in the light of America's own strategic goals and moral ideals, and those who want there to be no linkage."

Such a debate is long overdue. If, heaven forbid, Palestinian suicide bombers move to our shores, we should at least know why.-------

(Click link for complete commentary)
Belgian
Crude Oil and inflahopsahyperlala....
USAGold, allow me to add the following to your ME analysis.
Russian oil production equals the Saudi output today !
The Russians are NOT (repeat NOT) going to let their oil flow for a *friendly* price !!! On the contrary, they will add oil(not the crude) to the (ME) fires, stealthly (Iran connection) ! Compare their coming oil-policies with the Norilsk tactics ! Cruel, efficient and without mercy (social engagement).
TownCrier
An update from 'The Rocket School of Economics'
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.htmlIn this lecture titled "Currencies versus Gold", Professor von Braun takes aim at the position of the central banks. He says:

------When the investing public begins to see that the(ir) [currency's] purchasing power is being eroded AND that the CB's are helpless to stop this event, then gold and silver will begin a serious rise in price.

The CB's cannot grow wheat, corn or beans, nor can they produce cotton, or oil and gas, or metals for that matter. All they can do is issue promises to pay promises to pay promises, something they have gotten remarkably good at doping and are still doing it to this day.

We suggest that a close watch be kept on the CRB index as overall rising commodity prices associated with this index will be the clue to the first test of the CB's abilities to maintain the promises-to-pay-promises game, a test which will reveal their inability to lie about how healthy things are. Perhaps their first reaction will be to dump on the gold market even harder than they have been doing, who knows. But it needs to be remembered that a falling gold price is the only weapon they have against the early warning signs of rising commodity prices and they still have a considerable amount of ammunition should they need it.

A twofold strategy of buying into a rising commodity market and buying physical gold in a falling market may be the way to play the collapsing currency/stock game that is in the process of beginning, but do not expect the CB's to give up without a fight.--------

Click URL above for his full commentary
TownCrier
WGC weekly gold market overview
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlLast Thrusday I gave a rundown of the Eurosystem's quarterly asset (including gold) revaluation on a mark-to-market basis. Switzerland, not being part of the monetary union, nonetheless has through its central bank also adopted these international "best practices" to mark gold reserves periodically to market value.

Priced in Swiss Francs, the unit-value of gold over the quarter rose by 9.3%.

Click link for more on this and other items.
Siochain
Rubin appointed to Harvard Governing Board
http://www.hno.harvard.edu/gazette/2002/04.04/99-rubin.htmlRubin is certainly spreading his wings ......positioning hinself for cover?
Part:"Robert Rubin is one of the most accomplished and admired Harvard alumni of his generation," said James R. Houghton, a member of the Corporation and chair of the search committee. "He is a person of superb judgment and wide-ranging experience, and I'm very pleased that he has agreed to serve Harvard in this important role."

"Rubin is widely regarded as having been one of the most effective Treasury Secretaries in the nation's history. His years in government were characterized by the longest domestic peacetime expansion in U.S. history, low inflation, low unemployment, and a stock market that rose to record levels. On the international front, he worked to strengthen the dollar and to defuse financial crises in Mexico and Asia, carefully navigating the U.S. economy through a period of transformative global change."

Siochain...Unhuh...that's why economy is doing so well...NOT...and by the way I though GWB is a Harvard graduate of Rubin's generation...guess he's not admired
Hipplebeck
Bush Speech
I saw a Bush speech today, and it made me think of a movie that I saw. If you haven't seen it, I recommend it highly.
It''s called Swing Kids. It's about a group of young men who were into swing music in Germany as the Nazis took control of the country.
Gandalf the White
< ; - )>>
Be it known that on Saturday April 6th 2002, that at High Noon in the Capital City of the Evergreen State of Washington, twenty-eight GOLDHEARTS, (many from distances far), met to share words of encouragement and wisdom. Known names of many present and "past" Knights of this TableRound were seen at this PNW gathering, and some are planning another such gathering to occur at a PNW location soon.
<;-)
Cavan Man
What can we make and sell for a profit?
Levi Strauss to Fire 3,300, Close Six U.S. Factories (Update6)
By Andria Cheng


San Francisco, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Levi Strauss & Co., whose sales are falling for the sixth year in a row, will fire 3,300 people and close six U.S. plants as the jeansmaker shifts production to lower-wage countries such as Mexico.

``It's a painful but necessary business decision done for competitive reasons,'' Chief Financial Officer Bill Chiasson said in an interview. The job cuts equal 20 percent of Levi's workforce.

Three factories in Texas and one each in Georgia, California and Tennessee will be shut, Levi said. That will leave the closely held company with two U.S. plants, in San Antonio. Another 300 jobs may be cut from one of them, spokeswoman Linda Butler said.

Chief Executive Phil Marineau, who took over in 1999, is expanding a program predecessor Robert Haas started to focus on marketing and design instead of production. Levi has shut 22 U.S. plants since 1997. Other apparel and shoe companies already had started moving production overseas. Nike Inc. shifted all whole- shoe manufacturing operations to Asia in the early 1990s.

``In this industry, if you don't restructure and constantly lower costs, you won't make it,'' said Carla Casella, a fixed- income analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.

Levi, which began making jeans for goldminers in 1887, is still trying to determine the cost of shutting the plants, Butler said. The maker of Levi's jeans and Dockers slacks currently has 21 plants worldwide and employs 16,600, including 9,000 factory workers.

San Francisco-based Levi releases financial results because its bonds are registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Levi's bond prices have risen, analysts said. For example, the price on the company's 11 5/8 percent coupon bond maturing in 2008 has increased to $1,049 per $1,000 face value, from a year low of $693 reached in October, according to Bloomberg data.

Lower Costs

Low-cost manufacturers abroad have forced U.S. clothing and textile companies from T-shirt maker Russell Corp. to underwear producer Fruit of the Loom Inc. to close their own plants and farm out production, analysts said.

``The Indonesias and Chinas of the world can produce these goods much cheaper than in the U.S. (because of) cheaper labor costs and the strong dollar,'' said Jay Bryson, chief international economist at Wachovia Securities Corp. in Charlotte. ``Fifty years from now, there may not be a textile or apparel industry in this country at all. We may be importing everything.''

About 28 percent of Levi's jeans for its U.S. business have been made at its own plants in the U.S., down from about two- thirds in 1997. With today's announcement, that percentage will decline ``significantly,'' Butler said. The company doesn't have percentage of that on an overseas basis, she said.

Unions

Levi plans to shut plants in Blue Ridge, Georgia, and San Francisco by the end of June, and the factories in Brownsville and San Benito, Texas, in August. The plants in Powell, Tennessee, and El Paso, Texas, will be closed in October.

A sewing plant, with 600 workers, and a finishing plant, with 530, will remain, Levi said. The additional 300 cuts will come only from the finishing plant, Butler said.

Levi said it has negotiated an employee-separation package with the United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represents workers at the Tennessee and San Francisco plants. Talks are still in progress with the Union of Needletrades Industrial and Textile Employees, which represents the other four plants.

The company in January said it would shut two plants in Scotland and an unspecified number in the U.S.

Reviving Sales

Marineau already has been trimming advertising and inventory and getting better fabric prices to help reduce costs.

He also has been adding products such as low-rise jeans to win back teenagers and young adults, many of whom switched to the styles of Italian clothing maker Diesel SpA and the cheaper brands of stores such as J.C. Penney Co., analysts said.

``Their business was strictly reliant on a basic commodity: five-pocket jeans, when the market was moving into more fashionable washes and cuts,'' said Mark Minsky, senior vice president of merchandising at Doneger Group, a fashion merchandising and consulting firm in New York.

Levi's sales have dropped every year from a record $7.14 billion in 1996. Last year, they were $4.26 billion.

This year, sales, excluding the effect of foreign-currency translations, are expected to fall at a low-single-digit percentage rate, Levi said last month.

Levi had total debt of $1.96 billion as of Feb. 24, according to an annual filing with the SEC. About $106.6 million of that matures in the year ending February 2003, Butler said.

The company said it has no off-balance-sheet debt.


Belgian
Some underground Gold news
DROOY and Yes, Anglogold are making a loan / issue convertible bond, for...guess what : To get those oh so clever HEDGES from their backs !? Don't bother to ask them "how" this will be done.

But wait...the hedgers paid for some very interesting IN DEPT research (hohum) : (Miningweb)
Research done by Don Maclean-Beacon Group Advisors (Toronto). 85 Pages with a cost of 8.500$ (not payable in the equivalent of almost 1 KG of Refined Gold-smile) .
Conclusion (after payment done) : 10 yrs of steadily declining POG resulted NOT in a declining Gold output ! OHHH yeahhhh.
But the best part of the research is in finding an answer when those expected output declines will come ! And in these projections we decode what dear Don Beacon is paid for and by whom.

1/ A POG staying at 275$/300$ : Output decline to start in 2005. Reaching 29%/22% below 2001 level in 2010. In this case, dear Don will do the "in dept" reseach again for the same amount of 8.500$ with no Gold equivalent as to not disturb the offer/demand balance with its 2% annual increase (smile) ! Though Don emphasises that the miners must ensure that demand was healthy . Meaning jewelry gold of course.

2/ POG between 325$ and 350$ would bring additional output of Gold. He did not say Hedged gold.

Telling the miningindustry that there was no decline in output and using a POG range of 275$/350$ (max 27% fluctuation range) in a timespan of 10 years...is worth 8.500$. The WA POG spike was + 25% in a matter of days !

A perfect example of (paid) linear thinking on Gold as a commodity. Without even taking a POG decline in consideration. Don Maclean was able to present his very in dept research (grrr) due to the absence of Barrick's A.Hill as shedualed speaker on the Forum.

What did Don do what the WGC didn't do on output statistics ? I'll leave it here and judge for yourself on the "serieux" (seriousness) of these miners .
uponroof
Rubin......funny, that's not what I remember
http://lists.essential.org/corp-focus/msg00048.htmlRead this carefully and understand what Rubin's agenda is.... Note the date (1999) and the now prophetic points the author makes.

btw-I sent this link to the Harvard University Gazette.

Rockgrabber
Modern Day Dollar World. What a Joke
Will this modern day dollar world prove to be a bigger scam then the illigal drug scam? What one has or will hurt more people?
Lets just put our money where our mouth is. GOLD
RobotGuy
BUSH "I meant what I said!"
I've been looking for an 'or else' clause, but I haven't been able to find one. Stern words backed by action, or merely words to appease those in disagreement with Isreal's activity? What are you going to do if Sharon continues besiegement of the Palestinian state, Mr.President? IMHO (RobotGuy) absolutely nothing.
Iraq couldn't possibly be trying to team up with the rest of the global community by cutting oil shipments, but Saddam is definitely getting involved. Could this be an effort on Saddam's behalf to inspire an immediate agressive end to occupation of Arabian territories? An action to force other nations to get more heavily involved while sitting on the sidelines and watching? If Saddam's actions appear to have the ability to inspire immediate action, why wouldn't the other OPEC's take part? It has been implied by other nations that the embargo idea was just a psych, but now it appears that Saddam is serious.
I have a feeling that soon we will see Isreal's withdrawl with a statement that they have accomplished their mission and wiped out a large portion of Palestinian terrorist activity. I also expect that if and when it happens, Mr. President Bush will somehow be the hero. Perhaps Colon P. will have some amazing affect while visiting.


RobotGuy - - - Just blabbin. :)
uponroof
A lot of iceberg tips being found these days.....this one is larger than most
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20020408/bs_dowjones/new_york_gets_courts_order_forcing_merrill_to_change_analysis_processNew York Gets Courts Order Forcing Merrill to Change Analysis Process
Mon Apr 8, 3:50 PM ET

By: Charles Gasparino, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal


NEW YORK -- New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer confirmed the office has obtained a court order forcing Merrill Lynch & Co . (MER) to overhaul the way its analysts rate corporate clients.

He said "dramatic and troubling" evidence showed that Merrill's supposedly objective independent advice was tainted by a desire to aid the firm's investment-banking business.

"Research was openly used as a sales hook for investment-banking business," claimed Mr. Spitzer. "Public assessment of stocks was often false."

He added the continuing investigation isn't limited to Merrill, saying, "As dramatic and damning as this evidence is against Merrill Lynch, it may be tip of the iceberg." Mr. Spitzer went on to allege the problems at Merrill went far beyond a single analyst or research unit..."

Cavan Man
Paper Gold
So, if you are a large paper gold holder/player and your paper gold is in your portfoilio to hedge against a variety of risk; and, further; if you see that in light of various and sundry current events which would normally support a significantly higher gold price, even a modest + 10% or so; do you exercise good judgment and prudence and sell those same paper instruments because they are not delivering what you paid for? Is this how the bifurcation of the market might unfold?

Note: This is not a paid, testimonial for metal ownership.
timbervision
miner49er
Your comments are much appreciated. Of course one never see's oneself as one of those "... speculators who are always on the edge, always monitoring the price of everything they've gambled on...". But one needs to step back frequently and really think about what is best.

I did sell my house but it was right for many reasons and being able to buy some gold was a bonus. My "sleep at night" issue has more to do with timing-- when to convert mining shares to physical. The idea "what your understanding allows" is very critical. Homestake Mining had a tremendous rise and dividend after the crash of '29. I know that is what many people are anticipating this time and so far mines have been good. Because of FOA and the Gold Trail we are all offered another possibility, that seems counter-intuitive -- "when" gold takes off, mining shares go down. This is my current understanding. Am I right? Will FOA return and update us with his thoughts? Can world events transpire that alter this thesis? I don't know.

My own gut feel is that when something happens it will be a bit like 9/11, sudden and unexpected in its magnitude.

The best I can do, which parallels your final point is to steadily accumulate physical. A strategy of converting with each upward move in gold is the one for which my current understanding allows. But I'm all ears.

Thanks,
timbervision

Black Blade
Opec warns of oil crisis
Snippit:

Oil pipelines from Iraq have already shut down

A global oil crisis is looming with Iraq's decision to stop exports and a strike hitting production in Venezuela, the head of industry cartel Opec said on Monday.
Saddam Hussein has announced an immediate halt to oil exports for 30 days in protest at Israel's military action against the Palestinians. Exports from Venezuela have been almost halted by industrial action in protest against the company's new board of directors. Iraq and Venezuela jointly export about 4.5 million barrels a day, with Venezuela a major supplier to the US market.


Black Blade: It appears that emergency meetings will be called by OPEC. Wall Street is putting on a brave face and saying that oil will magically appear and that oil is not important anyway. However, commentators and some guests tonight on CNBC are saying � don't be so sure. Oil is important to almost every aspect of the US economy. I agree. Dubya today expressed concern and stated that Congress had better get on the ball with the "energy policy". Wait to see the reaction of US consumers at the pump. Meanwhile petroleum prices are rising.
YGM
Golden Sextant Latest.......(Sir Reginald Howe)
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary20.html#anchor8601Apr. 8th Commentary.......

Reg, you're a pitbull aroused!...YGM.

We all thank you and should help with costs or at least help support GATA with cash....www.gata.org

(anyone want to start a Reg Howe Fund?)

"GO GOLD & GO PHYSICAL"
Ten Bears
Notes from previous posts
It is said that, "when the student is ready the master will appear". I have lurked for several years here, USAGold has many "masters". Thanks, and thanks to the proprietor of this site for making their knowledge available. My purpose in this post is to outline in paraphrased form some small amount of information previously provided by the masters themselves.
(1)The argument for sound money is an argument against the international financiers and the central banks.
(2)Debt money requires perpetual growth to re-finance the debt (plus interest).
(3)Cutting interest in the last few years equals a welfare program for the banks.
(4)Too often, modern American business : a. borrows money; b. cooks the books to make loans look like earnings;c. sells new issues to cronies/speculators who re-sell at huge multiples based on the phony earnings;d. insiders unload stocks to pension funds and 401K accounts;e. the true purpose of the business is to hype and sell worthless paper.
(5)The term 'free markets' is a code word for the freedom of the market makers and cronies to manipulate the markets
(with full support of the central bankers).
(6)Government regulators are captured by the very interests they are supposed to regulate.
(7)The term US Treasury Gold may really be gold owned by the privately owned (Federal Reserve).
(8)The term 'free trade' is a code term for the importation of slave labor produced goods manufactured in modern factories constructed with borrowed US dollars.
(9)US imigration policies import poverty.
(10)US trade policies export technology and the manufacturing base.
(11)The huge number of dollars leaving the USA in the trade deficit partially returns to service debt but does not flow to the majority of Americans (particularly the workers).
(12)The financial corporations have sucked the life out of domestic manufacturing, enslaved foreign workers, and impoverished American workers.
(13)Financial engineering/derivatives have distorted most markets and have created disconnects between actual availability and paper deliverability of commodities and gold.
These are only a few of the points made here in the last few years.
Thanks for reading...Ten Bears
Black Blade
Reforms Coming to Remedy '90s Abuses
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000024691apr07.column?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Snippit:

The scope of reforms coming to the U.S. corporate regulatory system could be greater than any seen in the six decades since passage of the first securities laws and the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission. That became clear last week when the SEC said it had opened inquiries into the accounting practices of 49 companies, many of them on the Fortune 500 list of the largest firms in the United States.

Regulators suspect a widespread pattern of corporate managements inflating revenues and earnings by adroit and misleading accounting. Enron Corp. was the tip of the iceberg. So laws and regulations on the governance of corporations are being considered by Congress, the SEC, corporate boardrooms and business schools. A few changes almost certain to come in the new era of reform era are:


Black Blade: Interesting article. Some interesting proposals. I agree that overpaid worthless CEOs and other executives should be prosecuted for abuses and if convicted sent to a "real" prison for a very long time. And auditors should also be held responsible for their work. These proposals could change the face of corporate America.

Black Blade
New York goes after Merrill Lynch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BE63490D2%2D5419%2D4C69%2D8E96%2DA1FECA09DF5A%7D
Misleading analyst ratings allegedly linked to i-bank ops

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The New York attorney general sharply criticized the stock-rating practices at Merrill Lynch on Monday and obtained a court order compelling the country's largest broker to disclose to customers the ties between its equity analysts and investment bankers.

Black Blade: A change is in the wind. I smell many major lawsuits coming. Remember that Internet analyst guru Henry Blogett was paid off and allowed to "pursue other interests".
Black Blade
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase Named in Enron Complaint
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APLEtuRVqQ2l0aWdy
Snippit:

Houston, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse First Boston and Merrill Lynch & Co. are among nine banks accused by Enron Corp. shareholders of engaging in ``an enormous Ponzi scheme'' to inflate Enron stock prices and make billions for themselves in the process. The banks made misleading statements about Enron's income and debt that deceived shareholders in a ``grand illusion'' of phony profits and sham transactions, the plaintiffs say in their expanded version of an earlier suit. Enron was a ``hall of mirrors inside a house of cards,'' said the 502-page document, which will be filed later today in federal court in Houston.

The complaint, and a similar one to be filed on behalf of Enron employees, is aimed at asset-rich defendants by plaintiffs who say they lost $23 billion in Enron's collapse. Once the world's largest energy trader, Enron lost almost $70 billion in market value and is now mired in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Some 5,000 workers have been fired.

The latest accusations against the banks mark a new chapter in the unfolding scandal, alleging that some of the wealthiest institutions in the world are implicated. Still, legal experts say the plaintiffs face difficult obstacles in proving their case and winning the billions in damages they seek.


Black Blade: Very interesting. Just another lawsuit added to the growing list. A lot of wealth was blown away like wisps of smoke. That's money gone � "Gone to Money Heaven" � never to be seen again.
Siochain
@uponroof
Thanks for the link...very good summary on Rubin's activites!
Black Blade
Market Wrap Up - Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmOil Markets and Middle East Tension

Snippit:

The oil markets and tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate investor concerns. The price of crude moved up again this morning after Iraqi President Saddam Hussein decided to impose his own oil embargo against the West to protest Israel's occupation of hostile Palestinian territory. Iraq and Iran have both called for a 30-day oil embargo by OPEC to protest Israel taking action to stop Palestinian terrorism. Up to this point OPEC has been unwilling to impose an embargo and has rejected both calls from Iraq and Iran to do so. Iraq's decision to impose an embargo came after Libya said it would support a halt of oil production by Islamic countries against countries that back Israel. The biggest fear right now in the financial markets is if other members of OPEC decide to join Iraq.

The combination of Iraq, the reduction of oil production by Venezuela, along with Middle East turmoil could force oil prices even higher. An embargo at a time when OPEC has already made significant cutbacks in production could severely draw down oil inventories in Western countries. Western economies are very vulnerable at the moment to another oil shock. Most economies in the West are either in recession or trying to work their way out of one. The last three oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 1990 came at a time when western economies were at a vulnerable point in their economic cycle. They also occurred at a time of Middle East tensions. In 1973 was the Yom Kippur War; in 1979 there was the fall of Shaw during the Iranian Revolution; and in 1990 it was the advent of the Gulf War. A common thread associated with recessions during these periods was a spike in oil prices.


Black Blade: A good rundown on the Oil situation. Oil and Natural Gas prices are rising again. There is growing unrest in the Middle East with rioting and demonstrations in the Arab world from Morocco to Egypt to Yemen to Saudi to Iran. There is growing internal pressure from the people on these governments to react to the Israeli invasion. There still exists a good possibility that they will use the oil weapon.
Black Blade
Global: Another Oil Shock?
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020408-mon.html#anchor0Stephen Roach (New York)

Courtesy of an increasingly tragic chain of events in the Middle East, the world could well be facing its fourth oil shock in the past 29 years. The first three were decisive in pushing the global economy into recession. Would it be any different this time?

Another oil shock would hit the global economy at an especially vulnerable time. Even under the most optimistic assessment -- one that I do not share -- the world is only a few months into recovery from the rare synchronous recession of 2001. It is a global recovery that is being led by a US-driven inventory dynamic that has sparked a concomitant cyclical upturn in the global trade cycle. The optimists argue that this recovery is now being reinforced by a revival in final demand. We pessimists -- the "we" is, perhaps, a bit of a stretch -- doubt the case for a final demand follow-through and look, instead, for a relapse, or double dip, later this year. In either instance, however, there is nothing solid about the cyclical upturn in the world economy. It would be one thing if this cyclical revival were unleashing a torrent of pent-up final demand that was about to take on a life of its own. But for a US-centric global economy, the classic sources of pent-up demand -- consumer durables and homebuilding activity -- have already been exhausted, in my view.

Black Blade: In fact every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. What sets apart this current recession is that it was not preceded by an "Oil Crisis" as much as a general "Energy Crisis" where electrical generation was in short supply resulting in sky high utility rates. The same variables that led to this latest crisis are still in place, therefore an economic recovery is highly unlikely until the issue of stable abundant energy is addressed.

USAGOLD
Hedging Blows a Hole in Newcrest Profit
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/04/08/1017206311201.htmlNewcrest Mining's short-term hedging nightmare came back to haunt it yesterday, after currency and gold hedging
losses triggered a near 90 per cent fall in third-quarter earnings.

Newcrest's net profit for the three months to March 31 fell to just $1.3 million from $12.5 million in the previous quarter.

Despite reporting gold sales of 159,752 ounces at $545 an ounce, Newcrest's result was hit by a $13 million loss on
foreign exchange contracts, a gold loan loss of $4.7 million, a $6.5 million loss on gold options and a $4.4 million loss
on surplus hedge contracts.

MK Comment: And you thought I was kidding when I said that certain gold stock owners will lose money when the price of gold rises.
uponroof
How to incite a class action lawsuit....start with this statement from the NY Attorney General .....
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020409/ap_wo_en_bu/us_merrill_lynch_3"...Spitzer said he did not know how much money customers lost because of the 112-year-old firm's practices, but he said he believes the clients "number in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions..."

* * *

Now read this paragraph which states the investigation is far from isolated on Merrill...

"...Spitzer called the order an "interim" step. He said the investigation is continuing into several other companies and could lead to criminal charges..."

My my my...

Why do so many of these 'Spitzer types' now have a hardon for Wall St?

Times are certainly changing.

TownCrier
As a mining stock investor, you might open your pocket wide for government hands
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020408/markets_argentina_2.htmlRemember discussions here about commodity production controls a la the Texas Railroad Commission and also about such things as windfall profits taxes?

Here we se more lessons from Argentina to build upon those already presented, including the recent capital controls there.

As you'll recall, the peso devaluation -- under straightforward economic analysis -- portended well for exporting companies. But that was then, and this is now.

Excerpt:
---
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, April 8 (Reuters) - Argentine stocks fell on Monday on low volume due to export taxes on farm goods...

The Argentine government doubled export taxes to 20 percent on grains, oil seeds, vegetable oils and vegetable meals last Thursday to boost dwindling tax revenues.
---- (click URL for more)-----

Since the devaluation, the peso has thus far lost nearly two-thirds of its purchasing power against the dollar (and yet more against gold whixh is up over 300%), and with the latest taxation on exports, the MerVal (Argentine stock market) is sliding off of its comparatively anemic 40% gains.

The underlying message is to be sure you know what you own and the characteristic risks each asset is susceptible to. A certain class of gold coins (pre-1933s) may be your best friend when gold rises in price, with mines and bullion falling under congressional scrutiny as an easy means to raise revenue.

R.
Black Blade
Central banks aim to extend gold sale deal
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020408192447483N243753&set_id=60
Snippit:

April 09 2002 at 12:05AM
Frankfurt - European central banks aimed to extend a landmark deal that had helped lift gold prices by capping sales of bullion reserves, the industry-backed World Gold Council said yesterday.

The Washington Agreement, signed in 1999, limited gold sales by its 15 backers, thus removing the threat that central banks would rush to sell gold reserves and put the sales proceeds into other investments such as bonds.



Black Blade: Washington Agreement to be extended. Oh boy, is Welkete going to be bummed.
Black Blade
Gold supply fall of 30% predicted for this decade
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020405010453&query=gold
Snippit:

LONDON - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30% by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed yesterday. Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets. Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output drops from mature mines in the United States and Canada. "A gold price above US$325 is needed to prevent the decline," Don MacLean, Beacon Group managing director, told a mining conference where the study was presented.

Black Blade: I agree completely. Today I talked with a former colleague of mine in Elko, NV and he told me of a couple of mines in Nevada that will lay off several hundred people this September, and at least one mine closure. Many mines are nearly played out as they high-graded and have done little exploration to replace reserves due to the low POG. Gold supply from existing mines will precipitously decrease over the next few years.

Hipplebeck
goldbug on glenfiddich
I remember about 6 months ago watching a senate hearing and listening to some of the boys (mostly Dominici)talking about how we need to see gold at $300 because of the overvalued dollar. Well boys, you have it, and we don't see that current account balance any better. I also remember seeing him actually rubbing his hands together in anticipation of how he and his pals were going to spend that surplus. No, I am not kidding. He was actually ribbing his hands together as he talked about it like a little kid would.
The classic description of a ponzi scheme is that you always need exponential growth to keep the game going. Well, we have got that dollar ponzi out there. Are we almost at the point where everyone realizes what the hell it is all about? I mean, there are are bound to be some folks living in the primitive tribes of the rainforest who we can still exploit, but we are using them up fast these days, and the end must surely be in sight.
Pokemon should surely have been a clue.

Black Blade
Asian Markets Look A Little Red Tonight
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are pulling into negative territory as threats to world Oil Supply weigh heavy on the markets. The major Asian market import virtually all their oil.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Andersen to Cut 7,000 Jobs in U.S.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020408/financial_andersen_3.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Andersen (ANDR.UL) started cutting 7,000 jobs on Monday, or a little more than a quarter of its U.S. staff, and held open the possibility of more cuts as the accounting firm disintegrated further under the weight of its involvement in the Enron Corp.

Black Blade: No accounting for those "Bones". Meanwhile the "Bone Pile" continues to grow as Levi Strauss lays off 3300, and now reports of accelerating layoffs in retail (at record levels since the 1970's). In a word - "Grim".
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Gold's Bright Future
Bullish on gold....at 299 it's showing its fallback zone. This can't last for long with oil on the rise. If anyone with 50 IQ points in his head ever picks up a WSJ paper or an issue of IBD the only bull sectors are gold and defense and probably oil real soon. It's been that way for weeks. As the curtains close on Enronitis and Nasdip techno tragedy its a full focus on the gold sector. If the sector ever gets the limelight, which it will in time, it's going to be like cramming 500 people into a little conference room at a Howard Johnsons. With only 32 flavors to choose from will any of it not go up. Yes we know what a hedge crash is............ASL............but Freddy stock flipper doesn't know and that is the mentality out there. I see people going through stages. No one becomes a goldbug overnight. First they buy some physical to get a feel for gold. Then it might be a dabble with a gold based mutual fund. Maybe gold stocks if they have the kidneys for it. But all the time the anti-fiat paper psychosis sets in then they want more physical. Why do some expect every paper gold sinner to run up to the altar of physical and dump his soul. Its no different than some fat preacher ranting on and on to mock people's intelligence demanding that they come up to their altar. I've got an altar by my bed. There I'll figure out how much physical to own with money entrusted to me. I also need a better paying job as construction work is wearing out my physical that I can't buy. So if I can read charts and plot lines and swing trades and generate cash.......as much as a weeks paycheck in one trade....why is that a crime. I'm directly opposed to the bullion banks shorting attacks. I'm goreing the bears so why tread on me. Who causes short squeezes on gold and sounds the stampede. I'll go brain dead if I go all-physical. Or maybe some of you hate traders because you had positions but got skeered and soul..d out and fed those bears. The sign at the park says DON'T FEED THE BEARS. But who fed them? Well, I never saw the movie. I only read all the books. Gamblers usually loose until they learn to count the cards, then they win and get their name cast out as being worthless.

I can't go along with the success of Sadam's ploy to not sell oil. Eventually he will sell and the others who took his place will have better relations. He can't drink the crude so is enemployment in those oilfields good or not. It's a good upside spoof for the POG but we all know the true guzzler of oil is your SUV. Monster trucks make the price of oil and gold go up.
Hipplebeck
goldbug on glenfiddich
Wouldn't you think that if some other countries besides Iraq were going to do an oil embargo they would be smart enough to do it like the blue flu or something? Why announce it? Why not just have a little problem?
Hipplebeck
goldbug on glenfiddich
One thing that people seem to be overlooking on the embargo by Saddam is that he is not really hurting himself. He is cutting off sales through the pipelines which have to go through the oil for food deal which the US gets to skim off about a third of the price right off the bat and then decide what he gets to buy with it. The oil for food deal is also about 5 billion behind, meaning he has about 5 billion in that trust fund that hasn't been released because of all the dual use restrictions. In other words, he is pumping oil and it is just building up in the UN bank account. He really makes his money on the black market stuff that goes to his neighbors in trucks, and he is not cutting that off. Saddam may be dumb, but you don't get in a position of running a country full of Arabs by being that dumb.
Black Blade
Japan Banks Suffer Loan Losses
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020408/japan_bad_loans_4.html
Report: Bad Loan Losses at Japan's Major Banks Higher Than Expected

Snippit:

TOKYO (AP) -- A government probe has found that losses related to bad loans at Japan's 13 major banks are likely higher than previously thought, a newspaper reported Tuesday. The Financial Supervisory Agency discovered the figure to be $15.2 billion more than the $49.2 billion estimated in September, the Nihon Keizai said.

The Japanese government estimates there are $323 billion in bad loans throughout Japan's banking system. Private analysts say the figure could be much higher. The government is promising to clean up the bad debts in three years, a task analysts say is necessary before Japan can begin to emerge from its decade-long economic slump.



Black Blade: I believe that it could be much higher. Japanese banks have be very reluctant to write of bad loans. Now they have their backs against the wall. As guarantees for regular savings deposits due to expire next year, we could see many if not most of these banks go tits up.
RobotGuy
Hipplebeck - - - Ah, the old GlenFiddich
I love 'er on the rocks! Golden in colour,.. you can't beat that! Bell's and Dewars are next in line for me, I like a good cheap scotch, tee hee hee... I've got a 60 of Glen just dying to be cracked, but I'm savin' 'er for a special occasion. If we see what I think we're all waiting to see, I'm gonna crack 'er and try to avoid posting, but you can bet I'll be tuned in!!

Cheers!!
TownCrier
STORM WATCH Update
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20020405.htmlJim Puplava's commentary this week is filled with graphs and plenty of food for thought.

-------"Central bankers are fighting a two-front war. One front is in the financial system that requires constant injections of liquidity to hold back the debt defaults and prevent the system from collapsing. The other battle is to prevent users inside the system from shifting their funds to an alternative medium such as gold, silver, oil or any other tangible good that would compete with paper and credit. It is a lot like a fork in the road. On one side is the credit and paper money system that makes up the world's financial system. On the other road are tangible goods such as base metals, oil, silver and gold. The war is a constant battle where the public must be corralled on the one side of the road. ...The way the battle is waged is through�the derivative markets."-------

Click URL for more
The Hoople
IBM blinker light turned on !
One of my warning indicators turned bright red today. That IBM missed by such a huge margin should send shudders up and down Wall Street. The spin on this was pretty silly, and does anyone really believe that the Nasdaq got bid up while gold and silver flatlined all day? Another bizarre day in the bubble tales. Fleck is right about IBM being the warning to exit stocks IMO. What if just a little of that market cap headed toward gold? Maybe IBM could hire JPM to devise a new hedge strategy like Enron's. Oh wait a minute, maybe they already have.
Black Blade
The Once & Future Petro Kings
http://www.msnbc.com/news/732026.asp
Saudi oil clout isn't what it used to be. But the sheiks still control the world's main energy faucet--and they still use their power mainly as a force for stability

Snippit:

April 8 issue -- The kings of oil are the Saudis, now and until the wells run dry. Of late the sheiks have been cast as the wobbling heads of a withering oil cartel, weakening next to a rising Russian petro power, as Iraq waits in the wings to usurp their place in Arabia. Dream on. There's some truth to the image of a declining desert monarchy: Saudi oil clout is not quite as absolute as it used to be, and the proliferating Saudi people are less prosperous. But there are some basic facts on the ground, and under it, that just can't be ignored. The Saudis not only sit on the greatest share of global reserves, they are also the only nation with so much spare production capacity they can flood the oil markets any time. As one Saudi official boasts, "We can always turn on the faucet and really screw the other producers."


Black Blade: As it is, only the Saudis had any spare oil production during the last "energy crisis". The western economies are hostage to the whims of the major OPEC and former Soviet oil producers. Energy independence is a national security and economic issue.
Black Blade
The Thirst for Oil
http://www.msnbc.com/news/732017.asp
Bush warns of the worst energy crisis since the '70s. But even if that's so, his strategy--pump more U.S. oil--wouldn't solve it. The anatomy of a bad policy

Snippit:

April 8 issue -- The fat book opens like the tale of another age, with a nighttime image of auto lights streaking red and white past the World Trade Center. Released last May, the Bush energy policy warns that dwindling supplies of oil and gas, an antiquated power grid and burdensome regulation threaten to drag the United States into the "worst energy-supply crisis since the 1970s." In his introductory speech, Bush spelled out a scary 20-year scenario in which America becomes increasingly "vulnerable to price shocks, supply interruptions and, in the worst case, blackmail." Four months later the World Trade Center was suddenly gone, and it would no longer do for the U.S. president to evoke other crises, or a time of post-oil-shock stagflation. Yet if Bush's projections were ever true, they still are, raising a scary question: is there really an energy crisis ahead?


Black Blade: Interesting article though most is meaningless drivel, however, it completely misses the point. Worldwide oil production is likely near its peak (Hubbert Peak). It's also not a matter of how much oil, but rather how much "cheap oil" is available and for how long.
Black Blade
When Wells Go Dry
http://www.msnbc.com/news/734648.asp
Snippit:

Energy: The rate of global oil production will start to fall in just a few years, says a controversial geologist. And alternative technologies aren't ready yet

DEFFEYES HAS REACHED a conclusion with far-reaching consequences for the entire industrialized world. So far-reaching that many of his colleagues in the field of petroleum geology dismiss it. The conclusion is this: in somewhere between two and six years from now, worldwide oil production will peak. After that, chronic shortages will become a way of life. The 100-year reign of King Oil will be over. And there will be nothing that President George W. Bush or Saudi princes or the invisible hand of the marketplace will be able to do about it. "There's nothing we could conceivably do now that would have much of an effect on the oil supply for at least 10 years," says Deffeyes.

Already, Saudi Arabia is the only oil-producing country that doesn't sell as much as it can pump. That fact has allowed the Saudis to dominate global markets, but they can't offset the shortages yet to come. Pumping at maximum capacity, they would add less than 4 percent to the world supply. Nor is technology likely to offer a way out. Energy companies, says Deffeyes, invested billions of dollars in the past 30 years to improve their ability to discover and extract oil, and it's unlikely that any breakthroughs in the offing would significantly change the equation. Technology would help eke out the hardest-to-reach reserves, but the curve would still fall. "What would it take to get another hump in the curve, with a peak farther out?" says Deffeyes. "There would have to be another kind of oil field altogether. And there's no evidence that such a thing exists."


Black Blade: Discussion of Hubbert's Peak. Fairly good article that described the situation well.
Usul
Hipplebeck re-phrased to seek insight
Would you not think that if certain countries besides England were going to do a central bank gold auction, they would be smart enough to do it like the Swiss or something? Why announce it? Why not just sell it through the normal markets without any fuss?
And�ril
Usul?
Why announce? Among reasons of "REASSURANCE" previously suggested and not now to be repeated, this FACT also remains: the POLITICAL PROCESS when conducted properly requires this "etiquette" so the perma-whiners must look elsewhere to cry foul if they are to cry with legitimacy.

Case dismissed! A familiar sound. Do you follow?
miner49er
Cavan Man @ 72976 - Paper Gold

Dear Sir CM... I had to weigh in on this topic after reading your post. You stated: "So, if you are a large paper gold holder/player and your paper gold is in your portfoilio to hedge against a variety of risk; and, further; if you see that in light of various and sundry current events which would normally support a significantly higher gold price, even a modest + 10% or so; do you exercise good judgment and prudence and sell those same paper instruments because they are not delivering what you paid for? Is this how the bifurcation of the market might unfold?"

What you say has validity for certain players, but it calls to my attention what is a significant mis-perception of the contract gold markets, and why so many find their action bewildering. Sir timbervision used the term counter-intuitive, when describing this type of activity, where the metal goes up, but associated paper instruments go down. I think it's not so much that their behavior is counter-intuitive, as it is this mis-apprehension of the nature of these markets in respect to this. Once gaining the additional perspective, it should be perfectly understandable, the plausibility of this seemingly contrary action. Indeed, it should now appear to be..., intuitive...

Not out of the Woods, yet...

Permit me to indulge a discussion of Bretton Woods as a back drop. In Bretton Woods, a system was set up in which the U.S. promised to retain a fixed convertibility to gold, while other signatories would fix their exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. This created an odd relationship, where the U.S. theoretically would have its monetary policy checked by the other Bretton Woods signatories. The U.S., using a mix of gold and their own debt as reserves, would expand or contract according to a determined gold reserve ratio. When they expanded, the additional currency would find its way overseas by virtue of a trade deficit. If the central banks perceived the dollar expansion excessive, or became pressured by the inflation the U.S. was exporting, they could purchase U.S. gold from the Treasury with these excess dollars. This lowered the U.S. gold reserves, and put pressure on the reserve ratio that the U.S. targeted. In response, theoretically, the U.S. would slow down on the expansion until an appropriate reserve ratio was again met.

Likewise, were the U.S. to contract too severely, thereby reducing currency supply, this would manifest itself overseas in deflationary pressure. In response, the foreign banks could sell gold back to the Treasury for dollars. This would pressure the U.S. to reverse course, as they were now holding excessive gold relative to their targeted ratio. Once again expanding, this would relieve the deflationary pressure in the foreign countries by re-introducing more dollars to their reserve systems.

In both cases, the gold operations were performed to pressure U.S. monetary policy, in whose hands (by the design of Bretton Woods) was their monetary fate.

What was discovered, of course, was that if one is big and powerful enough, and also retains control of the very asset being used as a counterweight to their policies, this entity can and will eventually do what they jolly-well please. And so it was in the U.S., in the 60s. Considering Viet Nam, Johnson's "Great Society" initiatives, and importantly, the dramatic increase in real economic growth during that phase, tremendous upward pressure was exerted upon the gold ratio. And the U.S. expanded its currency with an attitude...

A basket of currencies, or a handbasket to...?

Ultimately in 1971, the U.S. defaulted on its obligations under Bretton Woods, and broke the fixed convertibility gold link to the dollar. So what have we gained by this rehash? What I want to bring to the forefront is the nature of the monetary operations involved. Typically, we have been given the impression that the gold draw down that began escalating in the late 60s was solely motivated by fears that the U.S. dollar was going to hell-in-a-handbasket. And the banks were furiously acquiring as much gold as possible, so as not to be left holding the basket... While on one level, this certainly has merit, I think we should look at this a bit differently.

Part of the foreign bank action was simply responding, with monetary operations, a la the designs of Bretton Woods. Dollar expansion, resulting in trade deficits (surpluses in the opposite countries), resulted in currency expansion in these countries from the excess reserves. These countries in large part were simply reacting in the prescribed fashion, seeking gold purchases to alter the U.S. reserve ratio, and thus pressure the U.S. to slow down expansion (subsequently alleviating the inflationary pressure in their own countries).

Understanding this, and making a distinction here between a motivation of action within scripted protocol, and a frantic, desperation drawdown is important as we progress in this discussion to the current environment. While there was undeniably worrisome expansion of U.S. debt during this era to pay for Johnson's social programs, and the war in Viet Nam, there was equally as substantial a period of real economic growth. This was catalyzed in large part by new technologies, and the new usages they found for oil. As FOA points out, the U.S. was able to derive exponential productivity gains from a barrel of oil with these new technologies, and was expanding debt currently on the basis of projecting this extensive new real-growth potential far into the future.

This did not escape the attention of the foreign central banks, who in light of this awareness, were most likely not so much afraid of a U.S. dollar/economy collapse, as they were the unknowns of a gold de-linkage, and what that augured. FOA posits that Nixon's default wasn't to stop gold hemorrhaging, but to force price inflation. Under Bretton Woods, the foreign banks were trying to contain their inflation by the established process of purchasing gold to alter U.S. reserves. Nixon, and the U.S., on the other hand, wanted some price inflation -- particularly in oil. This would encourage domestic producers to bring reserves online that were uneconomic, when competing with cheaper Mid-East oil at current prices. The bet on the part of the U.S., was that they could sustain the price inflation, and hence contain it from becoming monstrous, because of the buffer they anticipated in the real-growth potential of oil with its new technology uses.

In summary, the gold operations of this period were not the impulsive or reactive behavior of a bunch of idiots, but more a combination of carrying out designed prescriptions within a well articulated framework, and the strategic exploitation of the system for larger geo-political purposes. With this perspective, let's look at where we are now...

Seeing the forest for the trees...

It is important to make clear that gold has always, does currently, and always will have economic uses within our financial/monetary systems. Gold's purpose is not to be squirreled away in a vault, never to see the light of day again. Gold is an asset. Assets, to be useful as assets, are to be allowed deployment under appropriate conditions. If conditions for some group warrant nothing more than acquisition and holding, so be it... If, as under Bretton Woods, the U.S. would buy and sell gold at the demand of foreign banks in some coordinated scheme to manage reserves, so be it. If the banks exchanged it with oil producers on the side for cheap oil, so be it. If the U.S. did away with much of its holdings in order to gain some strategic objective, or to even buy time in a crisis, so be it. The purpose here is not to give commentary on the rectitude of this or that action, but to point out that gold is used. It is used to achieve bigger objectives. (And sometimes, these objectives may be the procurement of...more gold...)

Why do contract markets exist in the first place? They exist to provide buyers and sellers a place to contract, in various ways, the future purchase or sale of some thing, for whatever reasons. Chiefly, they help participants smooth out rough spots, mitigate uncertainties, or stabilize cash flows -- they are a medium for the exchange of risk, for the principal purpose of promoting stability and predictability to participants. Speculators are ancillary to the process.

Typically, a large, sophisticated institution participates in the gold markets for the reasons of portfolio balance, hedging, or "insurance." They do not, participate in this context, for investment or speculation. These markets are an evolution of the foregoing Bretton Woods arrangement. Where official gold is no longer "ballast" to stabilize the currency, these markets in an evolved way, exist mainly to accomplish the same purpose. These large, institutionalized participants are in need of some means to keep the currency, in which they have instrumented their substantial affairs, at some predictable value.

The main reason behind the U.S. allowing those under their jurisdiction to again privately hold gold bullion, was as a necessary pre-requisite for U.S. based corporations, institutions, et al., to undertake the task of gold management on their own. Those participants, whose business strategies demanded outright acquisition, would come to realize that the marketplace differed decidedly from the Treasury's bullion window, as any display of large, outright demand, would gun the price, causing unwanted volatility. In order to take some of the pressure off physical demand, an outlet was necessary for those who's purpose in acquiring gold, was simply for the effects of gold. These entities did not need to, and typically did not want to possess it outright, other than for its current stabilizing properties. If the stability could be provided without holding the metal, but just a derivative of the metal (deriving the desired properties and packaging them in some instrument), then more gold would be freed up for those who really demanded it. (Like oil producers, if we follow Another/FOA's reasoning.) One might view this as a means to obtain/retain the "value suspension" attributes of the currency, that we discussed a while back.

For this purpose, contract markets are ideally suited. Hence, a dichotomy of interpretations now exist for gold. It is at once a reserve asset of the monetary system (although technically no longer a monetary asset). It is simultaneously, a commodity, for the purposes of its exchange in the futures markets. This is by design, and this design was to generate stability in the financial arena.

If I have to do business in a world, where all currencies' values are dependent on the policy and performance of the U.S. dollar, and all I want to do is protect myself against problems arising from the currency, or its supporting economy, then the functioning dynamics of a contract market may suit me just fine. I view my contract expenditures as a cost of doing business -- something like insurance premiums, if you will. Contract expirations with no pay off, are not met with groans, but relief. Just as when I insure my property, I don't relish the occasion of an "insurable event," so I can say I got my money's worth, so here too, I would as soon that things remain likewise stable. I only want to have some insurance, just in case. In the same vein, as I insure my property against fire and flood, I also don't expect the policy to be of much use in the event of a nuclear war. It's not the purpose of the policy, and if I want coverage against more severe cataclysms, I expect to pay more for the service. Perhaps much more.

Each entity participating has different reasons for participating. They too, have different levels of "coverage" that they desire to obtain. In life insurance, some may insure their lives at $250,000, and determine this to be adequate in light of their anticipated needs, and a cost/benefit analysis to premiums paid. At the other end of the spectrum, a successful CEO of a large corporation may be insured in the tens of millions, the company considering the substantially greater cost worth the expense. In each of these cases, though, the preferred outcome is to not ever need to exercise the policy. If, however, the CEO is replaced by another, there is now no longer a need to keep insuring the former CEO's life, insofar as the business is concerned. The impact of his living or dying has become irrelevant to the business.

A river runs through it...

In FOA's introductory post, he uses an illustration of a river's flow to portray the political flows of time and history as characterized by our perspective. Up close, the haphazard movement of the water can lead one to make all sorts of improper conclusions, based entirely on an incomplete point of view. From far above, the direction is clear. Despite all obstacles and impediments, the course of the river is endlessly, unstoppably toward the sea. It is this observation, FOA tells us, that reflects the inspiration behind the design of a new monetary system for this age. Instead of fighting the natural flow of mankind, as the restrictions of a fixed gold standard do, why not rather design a system, that does not inefficiently spend such effort and resources going against the course of human nature? Further, the pent up force from centuries of fixing the gold price, have yet to be realized. They will one day be released with incomprehensible fury. Why not have a system in place that rides the wave to one's advantage, instead of one that insists on further damming the flow?

It is in this analogy, that a host of other issues can be addressed. Were not the foreign central banks furious over the 71 default, and wanted to make sure they got a fair portion of U.S. gold for all the dollars they held? Partly, yes, but this is to look at one arbitrary portion of the haphazard swirls, eddies and other disturbances found, when getting too close a view. What is important regarding this perspective, is that this activity is energized by, and carried upon, the bigger, overall flow of world affairs, and not the other way around. Similarly we can look at the issue of a "cabal" suppressing the gold price. What we should look at, at least for the purposes of this discussion, is not whether or not one exists, but why one can exist in this framework so successfully. It is not enough to merely say one exists and operates solely at the behest of governmental discretion, as such a dynamic would not of itself be able to control all the world's gold movements. It would be necessary for such an effort to find success, that it leverage the power of the natural coursing of this river, to obtain its ends. And in the case of the "cabal," it is instructive to note in what context they find it expedient to work. If their purpose is to suppress the price of gold, why not use a market environment that is conducive to, and in large part exists, to advance a stable price environment, hence the modern contract markets. This is obviously why they did not choose to implement some strategy in the spot markets. Why swim upstream?

The advent of the euro brings with it an alternative to the dollar. Importantly, it is an alternative to the dollar concept. Each day, more entities, who participate in the current gold markets in order to provide dollar "insurance," hedging and portfolio balance, will find they can achieve the same business objectives, more efficiently (i.e., at less cost) with the euro. They should be able to do this, by system facilitated, outright gold ownership, within a currency structure that is designed to work best (find stability) in a freely priced gold setting. All this without the inefficiencies introduced by the current markets: counterparty risk, political surprises, and the hideous complexity of the derivatives game -- all in an effort to foster an illusion of gold price (and by extension currency) stability, which is the requirement of the current paradigm.

Down and down she goes..., where she stops, nobody knows...

As this transition occurs, participants begin refinancing their business operations in euros as their international currency of choice. What this means, is that each day fewer and fewer participants are found in the dollar gold markets. They no longer need to insure against loss of life and accident for the former CEO. Hence, fewer long contracts ("policies") are purchased with every passing day. What's more, these former participants will also sell their unneeded existing contracts, further exerting downward pressure on the price. The only people buying them will be the long speculators, who still foresee price action in these markets as one day discovering the real price of gold. Instead, they will likely be met with wave after wave of institutional longs, leaving the arena. On top of this, the emerging divergence between the paper price, and the spot price will, by this type of action, be further exacerbated. Those who were insuring against "fire and flood," (gold at maybe $400, or $600), will now see imminent catastrophe on the horizon, and realize that their "insurance policies" are not going to be of any use, when this storm hits. The policies they purchased were not designed to cover this class of event. The long spec views this action, and interprets an imminent short squeeze, with the long awaited price discovery that saves his bets, while the institutional players are getting the heck out of Dodge -- and taking all their market volume with them...

On top of this, you will likely see one last assault by the shorts, who now smell blood. Following in the wake of these exiting institutional longs, they will make one final, lunging thrust into the heart. And who will stop them?

All the while the price of the physical metal begins a long and sustained bull run, and those who bet on this with paper leverage are the ones left holding the aforementioned handbasket...

Hopefully, if anyone has stayed with me, you can see this now from a different perspective. What I've tried to contribute, in addition to what Another/FOA have laid out all along, is an emphasis on the simple business aspects that drives market behavior. The financial considerations of gold, for these large institutional participants, are very technical and sterile -- devoid of the tensions of speculative interest. This is what the contract markets are suited for, and designed for. Speculators delve into them to find some angle to work, and work it for a killing, and while playing an important part in the mix, are again, ancillary to their essential functions. This is true of gold or gasoline, palladium or pork-bellies. These markets exist most happily when there is nothing more going on than yawning, hum-drum, monotonous stability, and the implicit lack of price movement that this brings with it.


Best to all ,
miner
Jin-Yin
FYI - Elliot Wave
To stay within the guidelines of etiquette here, someone well known in the big world of the Internet is offering its annual free week or great commentary and counts starting tomorrow. Should be some information on gold and silver.

Enjoy.
CoBra(too)
Don't disturb the Waters - Or not a Ripple across the Pond!
Gata's Chris Powell reported the following and I'll leave it to him to follow up with the article:
snip
Last week you could read about GATA in The Wall
Street Journal ... as long as you were reading the
paper's European edition, which carried a longer
version of John Connor's Dow Jones Newswires
story about the dismissal of Reg Howe's lawsuit.
For some reason the paper did not consider the
lawsuit and the gold price suppression issue to
be newsworthy on Wall Street itself, for the story
never made the United States edition.
unsnip

Don't ripple the waters at home comes to mind, though we've
diligently reported the facts - somewhere, that is - or is it? - Strange? ... cb2



Econoclast
Greaaat Post Miner! I stayed with you.
"The main reason behind the U.S. allowing those under their jurisdiction to again privately hold gold bullion, was as a necessary pre-requisite for U.S. based corporations, institutions, et al., to undertake the task of gold management on their own"

An idea that I have not seen expressed, yet it recently hit me like a slap in the face in my own private ruminations. The implications for the motivations are profound.

I have long been contemplating an essay on why confiscation is not a viable possibility. The ideas have been below the surface and have not yet made their way to my fingers. Your quote occured to me while thinking on that subject. When you realize that the change had nothing to do with wanting to help out the goldbug, the importance is put in its proper perspective.
Truly, gold bullion is the gift of our lifetime by an otherwise "taking" government. The allowing of gathering up of crumbs by those whose vision has let them see the truth. Only crumbs though--try to find a billion dollars worth of bullion!
I guess this goes to the heart of what was going to be my argument against a future confiscation. Those in the know, who have been quietly taking advantage of this gift for their own personal protection are not going to let it be taken back by the controllers they control.
Nomad
Venezuela Oil War
JCTex
Black Blade (04/09/02; 00:04:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 73002)
BB,
Several years ago, I asked a good friend, and very good economist, what he thought the price of oil would do.

He answered by saying, "Whatever the King wants it to."

Pippin
What's the known reason for gold's pullback ?
Sorry to come back with a na�ve and very basic question again, but I'd like to know why gold has gone down for a couple of days again, in spite of ME still being an issue of concern, japanese people still worried, the Enron scandal spreading and impacting large banks and brokers with claims reaching the billions, and (last but not least) oil-related embargos.
Is there any embryo of rationale here? A few weeks weeks ago, we had an even less explosive cocktail, and gold jumped like a grasshoper.
So - what did I miss? What's the reason for gold's retreat?



sector
@pippin...The Kernal of Reason
...for the current mini-pullback is that the cabal is selling to beat the band in order to produce a negative feed back.

In other words, since the tyraditional macroeconomic climate is conducive to gold's rise, the cabal can't allow that impression to take root so they sell.

One can trade this counter-intuitive situation if one wishes to risk being out of place in a breakout.

It's why oil went down. The SPR has been sold to keep poo down at just the time when it should go up. Sharon doesn't sound like a happy camper this afternoon. He may just resort to blasting suspected weapons dumps with tank rounds instead of troup searches.

Recognizing the cabal's price management derivative tactics is the difficult part in all this. See...they only have so much gold and oil to sell. Black blade has shown us that the Vens are running at 50% in their refineries so you can be absolutely certain of much higher oil...you just can't see higher oil prices today.

The derivatives buffer is a limited thing.
Cavan Man
@miner49er
"Hey, wait a minute fellas; we've got NEVADA 'ya know!"Hello. Thanks so much for your (always) thoughtful response. I took the fork you might be travelling a long time ago. The global monetary system has been patched up over and again for over thirty years maintaining the status quo. The world needs and in fact must have a new system. I beleive the world will have a new system. I'd just like to get it behind me and move on. While the transition will be bumpiest here, the US will do well. After all, there's a lot of gold in them that hills (of NV).
Cavan Man
test
test
Black Blade
Pipeline Brigade
http://www.msnbc.com/news/731891.asp
President Bush is arming troops to protect Occidental Petroleum in Colombia. What next?

Snippit:

April 8 issue -- Is George W. Bush using war as an extension of his oil policy? It looked that way in February, when Washington announced a $700 million aid package for the Andean region, largely to fight the twin threats of guerrilla war and drugrunning that threaten the area. As is usual, half the money will go to Colombia, but with a new twist: $98 million for training and equipping a Colombian brigade of around 2,000 soldiers to protect the 772-kilometer Cano Limon pipeline. Used to transport crude oil to the Caribbean coast from a field pumped by Occidental Petroleum of California in partnership with the Colombian state oil company, the pipeline is a favorite target of rebel saboteurs.

Black Blade: There has been talk that another oil and gas pipeline would be built in Afghanistan to transport petroleum from the Caspian Sea region. Again the name Occidental pops up. The problem with the Afghanistan pipeline proposal is that it will require $Billions to protect as it is longer, through several hostile regions, will require payoffs to every piss ant warlord in the region, and a permanent presence of about 3 US Army divisions to protect. Not a very likely outcome. Even the Colombian brigade proposal is a tough proposition as they will be fighting FARC, and a number of left-wing and right-wing paramilitaries 24 hours a day over 772 kilometers. The war in the Gulf (1990) was about oil, not because we have such a cozy warm feeling for the Emir and his family. We in the US had better get used to the idea of using the US military to protect our foreign petroleum supply.
Goldfly
Test
"Test"
Just a test.
Pippin
@Sector - thanks but...
I still have problems with this explanation: I just cannot imagine that anybody, any entity, any cartel has enough money to play this little game for so long and at such a level, especially if we consider that we are not talking about one metal only, but about silver as well, plus oil plus maybe other commodities.
In addition, all this "cheating" is done in one direction only: making price(s) to decrease. This means that "they" can never reconstitute a long position, otherwise it would reverse the trend. This implies that a colossal "golden faucet" has to exist at the top of all this to allow a continous flow of sales.

Nobody has infinite resources - and infinite resource seem to be what's needed for a deception of this magnitude.

I accept I'm only at the beginning of my reading of the "gold trail", so I still ignore most of the mechanisms involved, which have been probably discussed here many times. Sorry. And I'm not that strong at the level of the derivatives yet (although I'm working on it :-).

But I must confess that this looks too big to be true.
On the other hand, if this is not true, I really don't understand how POG can decrease in such a moment.

On the other hand (makes lots of hands), if a story like Enron was possible at such a level, well...

I'd like to know. I really would like to know.
Gandalf the White
Hello, Goldfly
Goldfly (4/9/02; 13:00:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 73018)
Test
===
OK Goldfly -- The TEST worked.
NOW, please send us a SONG !
Thanks
<;-)
miner49er
test
ignore...
miner49er
bingo...
it's [a glitch] in the url link, for you IE users who are perplexed by the strange behavior...
Black Blade
Japanese gold demand no flash in the pan
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/09/rtr562767.html
Snippit:

Japanese demand for bullion has cooled since peaking in February but analysts say the metal's recent sparkle as a safe-haven asset is no flash in the pan. The government pulled off some fancy footwork to shore up stock prices before the fiscal year ended in March, heading off a financial melt-down, but investors are still finding plenty of reasons to hoard.

Concerns that violence in the West Bank could erupt into a wider regional war and trigger an Arab oil embargo shoved spot gold prices to seven-week highs last week. "Gold's in the spotlight," said Akio Shibata, chief economist at Marubeni Research Institute. "The Middle East crisis is driving up oil prices, raising fears of inflation."

The surge was reminiscent of early February, when Japan's decision to scrap full guarantees for term deposits in the event of a bank failure prompted Japanese savers to pile money into "safe" assets as the April 1 deadline approached. That flow of wealth helped to drive bullion prices above $300 an ounce for the first time in two years.

"We've named this phenomenon not a gold boom but a money shift", said Hitoshi Kosai, general manager of the precious metals division at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., Japan's largest bullion retailer. He said investors would probably continue diversifying portfolios in the run-up to next April, when the government is due to end guarantees on current deposits as well.

With the yen in spitting distance of four-and-a-half year lows against the dollar, today's gold prospectors are less bargain-conscious. "Sales in March are similar to the January level, down from February's peak," said Masahiro Arai, assistant manager of the precious metals section of Tokuriki Honten Co Ltd, Japan's second-biggest bullion house. "But they're still five times greater than they were a year ago."


Black Blade: The "Japanese Gold Rush" appears to still be moving along. Japan's problems are far from over and without Japanese government intervention in the Nikkei and the banking sector the Japanese economy would crash into oblivion. Obviously Gold buying in Japan should remain rather strong.
Black Blade
Private investors return to gold
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mw/editors/?show=19229
Snippit:

In 2001 gold's perceived 'safe haven' or 'hedge against risk' status, together with lower interest rates on currency assets, saw individual investments in the precious metal stage a strong return in international markets. World Gold Council senior economic adviser Jill Leyland tells Mining Weekly that there are several factors contributing to the resurgence of interest in gold.

She notes that the past 12 months have seen a steady upward trend in the US dollar gold price, bucking the long-term decline in the precious-metal price that had existed in the markets since 1996. The Far and Middle East experienced an upturn in gold activity, the US saw a rise in gold coin buying, and markets in Europe stopped dishoarding gold.

While the immediate effects of the attacks (9-11) have worn off, Leyland refers to a lingering aftertaste for gold that still permeates the markets. Following the Enron collapse, doubt surrounding equities has also diverted investor confidence towards gold, while the euro and the yen do not inspire much confidence, limiting the choice for investors about where to put their money.

Market concern for central bank sales has also been dissipated following the Washington Agreement. Leyland states that it is hoped that the five-year Washington Agreement, which expires at the end of September 2004, will be renewed in some form. The Bank for International Settlement head of gold markets Giacomo Panizzutti is on record as saying that central banks will renew the agreement in some form.

"In addition to all the factors already mentioned there is an inherent concern for the Japanese economy and in particular the financial stability of a number of banks," explains Leyland. Japanese individuals have traditionally kept more than half of their wealth in the form of bank deposits and from next April the government guarantee on bank deposit insurance, which currently covers 100% of bank deposits, is going to be limited to ten-million yen on time deposits and the same from April 2003 on cheque deposits. With the financial stability of banks in question and limited returns from interest, the Japanese will look for alternative investment opportunities.


Black Blade: Interesting commentary. More and more Gold has been getting more positive press. This may change some as Gold has recently pulled below the $300/oz. Level, yet demand remains strong (because it's a bargain?). I am curious, now we find out that Louis Rukeyser will snivel and whine on CNBC on Friday nights at 8:30 pm. I can almost imagine that he will sniffle and sneer as he spews against Gold (as he did before he was fired by PBS). Even so, Gold has broken loose and has gained acceptance in the investment community. Heck, we just might even hear of money managers recommending a minimum 5% investment in everyones portfolio like they did a few years ago. Hmmm...
Black Blade
Will Gold......
http://www.seabridgegold.net/the_case_for_gold.htmWill Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable supply/demand imbalance


Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable short position


Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable low inflation


Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable U.S. dollar


Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable pricing for financial assets


Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable gold price manipulation


Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Gold is money again


Black Blade: Nice graphs and bullet lists emphasizing Gold as an investment from Seabridge (a Gold miner). I had to check a couple of time to make sure this wasn't a competitor. A nice synopsis for Gold as portfolio insurance and investment.
uponroof
POG ...... war premium weakness
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020409/markets_precious_2.htmlPOG is all about the middle east right now

Withdrawls and related (now discounted) embargos are allowing some ease.

Bush will interpret this momentary easing as an opportunity to invade Iraq....possibly in the next few weeks?

POG will interpret this a a chance to breakout 307.

So as we lament the easing of POG understand that it is only temporary in the now permanent upward channel.
USAGOLD
Gandalf, Goldfly. . .
OK. I vote for a song too.

What's with the purple copy or is it just my computer?

As Murphy would have it, Randy, on road today. Are we having a problem?
Belgian
Enjoyed Miner49er Posting. Thanks Sir !
The Gold-Manipulation by the government (Goldstandard) being privatized in 1971 ! In analogy with the government organizing wars to allow private dollar-colonialism.
Ever since 1913 > 1933 > 1971 >...The cycles of domestic (USA) permanent dollar creation, created the need to export these dollar-excesses abroad to newly conquered colonies.
First the development of the americas itself...1918/1945-WWI-WWII, the euro-dollars...1970-ties, the petrodollars and now Eurasia from out of Afghanistan/Pakistan.

The USA is profitting from the present weakening, Euroland leadership/unity. Not in the least due to the ridiculous double edged sword of veto-right in voring. The present geopolitical events are nefast for a united stance from Euroland against the US modus operandi. It will take time to overcome this. But we need A/FOA's help for enlightment on how this dis-unity is affecting the progres on the euro/Gold/oil-concept. Thanks miner49er.

All-Correction of previous error : It is not Anglogold but AngloAmerican that is issuing convertable bonds ! Has nothing to do (most probably) with AU's desire for elimination of its 500 tonnes hedged gold. Sorry for the mistake.
CoBra(too)
@ uponroof
As it seems Sir, there is little hope of withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Westbank. After leaving 2 towns others have been invaded.

In Jenin a bloody battle killed 150 - 200 believed Hamas or Jihad fighters, while 13 Israeli soldiers were killed by an ambush of a suicide bomber in the narrow streets of its old city center. Nablus is totally devastated and Bethlehem is still besieged. The Vatican urges the Isrealis to spare the spiritual capital of 3 world religions. The ME, and Palestina is more of a powder keg than ever before.

Today, Israelis are commemorating internationally the Holocaust Day (-Vienna held a symposium for two days -and it was devastating to observe the total hatred even among highly intellectual participants).

Sharon said that Israelis agree to the need to defend themselves. Until the goals of purging terror are not reached the Israeli soldiers will not leave the West Bank territory. - While Colin Powell is not expected to arrive in Israel before Friday, the populace of the arab Capitals are rioting against Israel and the US.

... And then there is the OIL! - an incendiary mixture - though POG will be driven by its fundamentals, which are realized more by the day.

Gold - get you some, as Aristotle used to say. BTW, the same promised some insights recently - regards cb2



R Powell
USAGold
What you're seeing as purple copy I'm seeing as a yellowish-green. What is discolored is also underlined. I thought maybe you were experimenting with a new Timothy Leary look for the forum. I believe most goldbugs are more likely to be "creatures of habit" (not the religious habit) and would not take well to psychodelic postings although changing all type to green when POG is higher and red when lower comes to mind.
******
Does anyone know a Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS? I'm always looking for information but always leary (not Timothy) of paying in advance for unknown quality.
My analysis of both the stock and precious metals markets as compared to the markets movements has me totally dumbfounded once again. This is not an unusual condition for my brain, I'll survive. I guess I need to study both the individual trees and also take some wide-angle lens pictures of the forest. Patience, Rich, patience.
Rich
Golden Bear
Pippin (msg#: 73019)@Sector - thanks but...
Greetings Pippin,

please consider that in any market, the buying and selling pressure ebbs and flows. The drop in gold prices may not necessarily be excessive selling by the cabal, but rather minor selling which has taken advantage of buyers backing off and taking a breather for whatever reason. It is these opportune times that the cabal can really press the pog lower without expending too much ammunition.

Most participants in the markets do not realize that said markets are auction markets - the price of the commodity is pressed higher by buyers until a point is reached where price has become too high relative to perceived value and the buyers move to the sidelines as the sellers move in to take advantage of higher prices. This pushes the price lower and eventually reaches a point where again perceived value is higher than the current price, and the buyers move back in... this is what creates the ebb and flow that we witness. It is the battle of perceptions of buyers versus sellers.

It must be taken into consideration that many see gold only as another commodity, and therefore it is easy to see that market players "preceive" gold's price to be too far above its value, causing them to move to the sidelines irrespective of how we goldbugs perceive gold very differently.

Cheers.
Cavan Man
@miner49er
Sir miner: I truly enjoyed your thoughtful response. It's very rewarding playing your straight man. Before I clean the dishes and cook dinner (renaissance man that I am), I wanted to get off a quick not.

You and I might be travelling the same trail. I made my bet a long time ago and am sticking to it thru thick and thin. The simple reason is change is needed after a thirty year period of band aids.

I watch with interest and comfort as the US fights the good fight knowing in the final analysis that Nevada is the 51st state in the lower 48. Best2U...CM

PS: MY only "paper" bet is the very best Jr. which happens to be in Nevada of all places.
Cavan Man
PS Sir Miner49er
That's a quick "note" and I do realize that we only have 50 states in the US. It's been a rough day. The AG economy has been brutal as of late.
R Powell
B.B.
Thanks for the seabridgegold link. I know what you mean about wondering who they are. I wandered around for a while, read different stuff, met the directors and bigwigs and then left, all without anyone trying to sell me anything! Who are those guys?
Nice article. You have a knack for finding them. Good work! I nominate you for the star of the day. M.K. can now post that star in any color you want. I got yellowish-green myself. It was probably an attempt at Gold.
Rich
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Pippin, why gold down
All the factors combined in the supply / demand equation. Every item in the store ends with the price "something.99" or .98. Over that mark is a heavy psychological resistance. Sharon saying about peace and the belief that the US can "whip" peace on the mideast conflict... spurious notions not based on facts or reason. Then we have the banksters shorting gold hard in NY. What we should not forget is that in NY we got some good bull runs of 4-5$ a day. That to me was the Jewish financial arm pre-empting the Israeli assault and the went long strong enough to KO the Cabal in overtime. The financial strength of Israel is in NY and some millionares/billionares of Jewish heritage around the world. When they go into gold, it's a big move. But can it be sustained? Once the longs are all long it's the shorters who try to shake them out. The ice is melting under goldstocks below 299 so we may see the other edge of the sword. I judge the bottom by the shakey spike zones occuring and they represent "hammers" and doji's which indicate shorts getting burned by new longs. They haven't shown up yet but soon they will. Gold longs will hit like a bluefish frenzy and the duration of the rally should be brief it it starts off with a short squeeze. We want shorts to pile on to panic later as they get out of Dodge. $300 gold is the Caldera. I don't think we will ever see 280 gold forever, history like this 60 year implosion of a credit cycle is a one time event and that is why it's such a fluke to try to predict its unraveling. Bubbles upon bubbles, doll hairs stuffed in jars from the Baja to West Russia. We are in the game of leveraged faith and ploys of disinformation. Greenspan is not young. Ponder his absence in the faith-in-fiat equation. This circus has ringleaders and they are all brilliant. But markets are more powerful than governments. Rome was led to debase its currency. Pun intended.
CoBra(too)
GR2 -
You haven't read "Crashmaker" yet - Or have you?
Cheers - cb2
mikal
Re: Rome and POG
Currency debasement is ongoing since FRN's debutted. And before that throughout history, which does repeat itself over and over and ... Shakespeare's words resound yet again: "O mighty Caesar! Dost thou lie so low? Are all thy conquests, glories, triumphs, spoils, Shrunk to this little measure? Fare thee well. I know not, gentlemen, what you intend, Who else must be let blood, who else is rank." -Antony to Brutus and Cassius, Act III, Scene I, JULIUS CAESAR Before Colon Powell visits the Middle East on Friday, it feels to me as if someone will be sacrificed again, 9-11 style.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
My two cents worth!
With a lot of people lamenting about the decline of the price of GOLD, I have to remember the immortal/mortal words of my 23 year old economics graduate son:
"You GOLDBUGS have got it made; this is the best of times for you!
a.)You are smart enough/able to follow the words/instructions of ANOTHER and FRIEND OF ANOTHER!
b.) You can buy pre-1933 Gold Coins just above the melt/production price with the strong dollar policy.
c.) BUSH will help to keep up the pressure to keep oil prices down/manipulated for cheap pay at the pump gas prices.
d.)You can hedge your paper fiat exposure at bargain basement/fire sale prices. No Pressure Form INFLATION.
e.) Deflation everywhere else for buying/consuming your heart's desire.
SO WHY DO YOU WANT ANYONE TO SPOIL ALL YOUR FUN BY LETTING GOLD RUN FREE! DO YOU REALLY WANT TO DEAL WITH ALL THOSE ISSUES AND THE RESULTING REPERCUSSIONS?"
I think he is completely right with his point of view!
mikal
Re: Powell
Should be more precisely: "As Colon Powell prepares to visit the Middle East this Friday, someone, somewhere, perhaps Powell himself, will be sacrificed again, 9-11 style. It feels to many, as though the world is at a critical juncture, a calm before the storm. The USA alone faces unprecedented crisis and danger, ranging from domestic military vulnerability to social and financial fragility. Perhaps the time is now. With USA having an unserviceable deficit, faced with shrinking foreign funds inflow, credibility, and prestige. Oil interests, financiers, corporate oligarchs worldwide would benefit from another major calamity, enabling them to secretly shift funds, consolidate military, financial, political power, reap windfall profits from guaranteed market movements, and cover their trails.
mikal
@GR2
I liked your point about goods ending in .99 or .98. And, your thoughts: "Markets are more powerful than governments. Rome was led to devalue to currency. Pun intended." Yes, we cannot fool with Mother Nature, can we?
mikal
Post should read:
"...Rome was led to devalue its [not "to"] currency."
RobotGuy
Pardon me for not paying attention but,...
Didn't someone ask in this forum a short time ago if there were any charts or indications of the amount, or volume that trades hands during daily AU swapping? Was there ever a response?
One thing I can tell you, but it's paper related. All you paper haters close your eyes! The volume of many popular precious metals mining companies has been very low during these few days of mild AU pullback. Another thing that is very amusing to me is the number of outstanding shares compared to average volumes traded during busy days. I am sure there are a good number of investors who are quite aware that we're in for a decent advance in the values of precious metals whether or not they are willing to say it publicly or not. When? In our lifetimes for sure. Tomorrow? Probably not, but I'm always up for a good surprise. Plus, if AU went through the roof tomorrow and made us all multi millionaires, who would come back to this marvelous forum for daily news and views?
I'm gonna miss you guys when I'm tourin' the world on my brand new Harley!!(Of course after the gold rush)

Cheers!!

Robotguy.
slingshot
Hoosier Goldbug
Good time for GoldbugsI'm in the shute, sitting on top of a 1600 pound bull named "GOLDIE". My Rope is tight around my leather gloves and I'm ready for the ride of my life. Let Him Loose!

Slingshot-------------------<>
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
GOLDBUG RIDE!
Slingshot, I have no doubt with your expertise and knowledge you will score all 11 out of 10 scores by the judges for your ability to ride that GOLD BULL, but
a.) Every Joesixpack in the stands will be gunning for you, so the bull may be the least of your concern.
b.) No fun when economic life is unmanageable, in utter chaos, just look at the pictures of the miserable people in Argentina in the streets, etc..
c.) You will be viewed as different, queer, unpatriotic by your government and may be forced to relocate.
I just want to continue to live this exciting/dull/mundane life of mine, strong dollar purchasing power fiat ponzi scheme, cheap gas, working my no real estate bubble bursting real estate appraisal practice, keep accumulating the physical for my two sons, and die, leaving to them to playout the consequences of the impending financial perfect storm. Guess I am a coward and do not want to face what is coming down the pipe.
slingshot
Hoosier Goldbug
Looking through a different facetHoosier Goldbug just by being here proves your smarter than the average dude and far away from being a coward.And even I have a comfort zone. We both know the world is sick and we are making preparations for our children in the future. Gold is the best way. We also know that if we are going to get from here (present wealth) to there (stinking rich) something has to happen to POG. I knew there would be repercussions when I started accumulation but that is part of the game. I do enjoy putting away some stash. I'm not too worried about them gunning for me. Lets say they better give me a wide berth. I'm not moving and I'm one h-ll of a Patriotic person. So my friend think positive. My guess is they will be worried about covering their bottoms than thinking of us. ;o)
Slingshot
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
AMEN BROTHER SLINGSHOT!
And so it shall be! Thanks!
R Powell
RobotGuy
Another item worthy of note in the paper trading game or Comex casino is that open interest (total number of contracts) in both gold and silver increased appreciably during the recent run higher. For silver this most recent run was from about $4.30/oz to $4.75/0z while open interest increased from approx. 66,000 to 78,000 contracts. What is noteworthy is that this open interest has not fallen off very much at all, at least, not yet. I interpret this as a good sign that there is strength supporting the market price.
Your comments on mining stock numbers would seem to confirm this. My gut feeling is that the momentum or trend followers have only just begun to enter precious metals so that many stock holders are long suffering believers less likely to abandon ship. Sometimes I think almost all the Drooy stock is owned by the guys next door. Many futures players will follow the price swings changing positions constantly but the resilience of the O.I. number does not confirm this yet. This is encouraging. At least, so far.
Rich
Ray Patten
Pippin...why can't Gold keep going up?
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htmI've discussed this before; I guess it's time to discuss it again. In the early 1990's, I noticed an unusual pattern in the open interest of Gold futures. The same pattern hasn't changed much to this day. According to the weekly committments of traders report, the commercial traders would get short the market on rallys and get long on breaks. The normal cycle is about 2 or 3 months. All the revelations of GATA have convinced me that the "commercials" are none other that the Exchange Stabilization Fund. So there are 2 manipulators in the Gold futures...the cabal and the ESF. History has proved to me that the ESF is only interested in stabilizing the market. It's the cabal that noticed the ESF doing that and tried to break the market since 1996. The ESF was very long at the bottom and accually helped make the bottom. Hopefully, the cabal is out of amo.

The situation now is that the ESF is very short...just doing their job. I like the way the market is acting under the circumstances. The market is very "bouncy", with obvious support on every break. If June Gold can hold 295 and basically stay in the 300 area for another week or 2, the cabal will have to reach to cover their shorts. The real fun will then begin.
Hipplebeck
PIPPIN, if I may,
I've said it before and I'll say it again, it is the perception of inflation that is the number one influence on gold. Just watch how they are talking about the economy. If it looks like the economy is going to take off again, so will gold. If it looks like oh no, we are not out of this recession thing yet, then gold falls. Sure the tensions in the Middle East are having their influence, but EVERYONE knows about golds great rise in the eighties, and they know that it was inflation that did it. The only other thing that will get it to go way up is the perception of a complete financial breakdown in the whole world system.
Pizz
Miner49er/Black Blade/Others
Miner - Your recap/summary right on. Thanks for reaffirming big picture. ALL need to reaffirm BIG PICTURE.

Haven't had time to read all posts, last couple weeks, but from what I have had time to read, and this has been selective, OIL appears to be bigger problem than most realize.

Black Blade - you scrounge and dig up enough on energy (etc) to give us the inside scoop - keep it up and thanks.

PPT and government proxies would appear to be applying paper and dirivitive solutions to both OIL and the DOW as they have done to gold over the years. (IMO)

NASDAQ appears to be on it's own. Scant resources left to prop markets. OIL, GOLD, and DOW appear to be the last to be controlled/ supported. All three appear to be on brink. Oil, gold, to go up, Dow to go down. $ appears to be a secondary consideration due to its position and proliferation. Still a safe haven in most eyes. Again, IMHO.

Cash flow for businesses is getting critical (spending 12 hours a day robbing Peter to pay Paul). My organization is not the only one. Without a strong Spring/Summer it will be a long cold winter. The advertised "recovery" IS NON-EXISTANT. Any corporation with assets is borrowing all they can - even short term. This is all that's keeping the major banks from earnings warnings. It's the last "powder" the banks have for earnings. My guess is Japanese/multinational banks have 6 to 12 months before implosion.

I'm adding systematically to all my positions, physical and other. Do your own due dilligence, but day to day, week to week variations are immaterial, IMHO.

Again, thanks to all, I hope to be able to give more due dilligence to this forum soon, even as controversial as I can be. Right now I'm getting more than I'm giving and it's appreciated.

Pizz








miner49er
Cavan Man @ 73032 - Paper Gold...
Greetings, again, Sir CM - First, I apologize if I left the impression that I was using you as a "straight man." The last thing I would want to do is ricochet off someone's post...

Second, I hope the post was not too confusing. I wrote it very, VERY late last night, partly while I was on the phone handling some other crisis (tempest-in-teapot stuff, really...). After having read it just now, it could certainly use a little rework, but c'est la vie...

Mainly what I wanted to address was the issue of "large paper gold holder/player[s]," and risk management, and the conclusion that many would decide they perhaps were not getting what they wanted insofar as hedging risk was concerned, and leave the markets for, presumably, a better risk-management tool. And that the condition that indicates this, is the evidence of a languishing POG. At least, this is how I understood your post.

I chose this point to illustrate what I feel is the reason so many observers have a hard time understanding why the price languishes, more importantly, why it will likely never reflect the true price of the physical metal... Even when the very conditions they know should cause a price rise are looming large over yon' horizon...

The point is fundamentally, that these big players don't necessarily care one way or the other about whether there is a gain, or not, and whether they exercise their contracts, or cash them out, at a regular loss (cost of insurance, if you will). It is as if they are holding "insurance policies" for a certain level and type of coverage, which over the past quarter century, has been satisfactory, given the operative paradigm. They have not insured in this system for the eventuation of 1000% POG increases, or rollercoaster volatility. And, by and large, through happenstance, market force, government intervention - overt and covert, dollar performance has delivered, and these markets have, indeed, been adequate.

Smart money recognizes the storm on the horizon, and realizes that the herculean potential contained in the storm clouds will deliver damage that these contracts ("policies") do not insure against. Thus, they are not selling out because they have thus far failed to perform. They know they cannot perform in the future, as they are the wrong instruments to hold altogether for the coming events. Add to this the consideration, that not only are they "underinsured," they are insuring something that will no longer need to be insured. Like the former CEO, why continue to waste premiums on him? Insure the new guy, instead... If moving to an entirely different currency for the denomination of your affairs, use the tools that work best for that currency. Dollar gold contracts will have no place in hedging/balancing a portfolio of euro instruments...

Thus the great "bifurcation" you speak of (btw, nice word...) takes place because of the obsolescence of the previous market paradigm, and the awareness of its insufficiency for tomorrow's world. Lack of price movement, until now has been Ok, as indeed, for whatever reasons, the instrument hedged against has not needed it. You are rightly perceiving the moment, I believe, as these players are NOW looking ahead. At this moment, so far, the gold substitute markets have outperformed the instrument they are hedging against. They have done quite well against the dollar this past year. At this rate, you would think they would stay with it.

But this is where the crux of the issue lies. These guys are now perceiving the storm against which they are not protected, and are exiting this arena. Without an apprehension of this concept, people are prone to think that it's simply the lack of upward price movement that is causing the exodus, which they perceive more as capitulation, rather than smart people heading for the hills... Thus many are saying to themselves, "I know better, the shorts, the cabal, the Fed, BuBa, whoever, can't hold this together forever, one day the squeeze will come..."

In this they are right, these guys can't hold it all together forever. They won't have to, though, if this forecast is at all correct. And there are likely to be painful squeezes, but they won't be the end game, and it won't bring financial wholeness and satisfaction to those leveraging for that end. These markets will likely not melt up into oblivion, but down instead.

This is partly how the shorts will hope to get out of this. As physical buying accelerates, the conventional logic has it that people will leverage these increases with futures and options. Actually, the bulk of the volume in the contract arena, are these institutional risk-managers, who are only concerned with the contracts' ability to keep parity with gold, and have interest only in taking any gains in cash, which is what they do their business in... They don't care about physical, that's why THESE guys play THESE bets. For them, paper is a more efficient medium to work with. Preferrable to dealing with physical storage, transport, and insurance concerns, etc. As long as cash price performance keeps some predictable, and stable relationship with the metal itself, they... are... happy... They exit when they no longer believe their contracts will provide this stability. Their sell out will decimate the paper price, because they foresee the discrediting of their "insurance" policies, altogether. The shorts will not only be relieved at this, but if they perceive the price on its way to single-digits, they'll chase it all the way down... and then rub it in the ground at the end...

Sure, some people will get hosed, they always do, and some spiking and squeezing will take place, and some people and houses could be ruined or badly damaged, but the overall thrust is likely to be as stated.

Yes, dear Knight, we probably do travel the same trail, but I am wont to go exploring, and sometimes get myself into trouble... but we both help each other stay on the path less traveled by, as it does certainly make all the difference...

cheers,
miner

p.s. I am also quite aware that the insurance analogy is imperfect, and that these contracts are not technically to be construed as insurance, but that's another story...
Black Blade
U.S. Oil Sinks on Israel Pullback
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020409/markets_energy_5.html

By Richard Valdmanis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices retreated on Tuesday after Israel withdrew some troops from Palestinian cities in the West Bank and as No. 1 world oil exporter Saudi Arabia eased worries over the impact of Iraq's one-month embargo. Crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 72 cents to $25.82 a barrel for May delivery, pulling back from gains made Monday due to Middle East violence and Iraq's call for a ban on exports in protest of Israeli incursions.


Black Blade: Still Israeli troops invaded other towns instead and the battle wages on. Meanwhile 13 Israelis were killed during a home invasion by remote controlled booby traps. This war is far from over -- the whole region is set to explode. Also, the petroleum worker strike in Venezuela is picking up and may erupt into a bigger problem similar to that in Argentina. El Presidente may find that his days are numbered, and somehow I don't think Hugo Chavez will go quietly.
Black Blade
Rick and Pizz - Thanks

I try to find the news that might have a profound impact on the economy (and Gold by extension). Lately in the financial media we hear much more about how higher energy costs act as a tax and reduce consumer spending (we can add war to the equation as well). We also hear the Wall Street pimps and trolls who claim that energy isn't important anymore. I even heard one guest on CNBC this morning claim that energy isn't important - silicon chips are important! I hate to burst his bubble - but someone already did (the dot-com, telecom, and tech bubbles that is). Anyway now we have a petroleum worker strike in Venezuela - the most important exporter of oil to the US. In fact, Venezuela also refines gasoline for the US as we don't have enough refining capacity anymore - no new refineries have been built in about 30 years and every year we hear of on closing up due to environmental, NIMBY and regulatory reasons.

Without energy - the economy ceases to exist. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Japan money supply grows, little help for economy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020409/economy_japan_money_4.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, April 10 (Reuters) - Japan's money supply rose at its quickest pace in two years in March, central bank data showed on Wednesday, but analysts said it was more a sign of financial insecurity than of any pick-up in the real economy.


Black Blade: No need to comment -- the situation in Japan is desperate.
Cavan Man
@miner49er
No offense taken. As your straight man, I am flattered you chose to answer my question. Thanks again. Timing is of course problematic but while we are hiking together I should ask are we within a couple of years IYHO?
sector
Enron and Gold...The Plea Bargain from Anderson's Duncan...
"...many songs to sing"...may just be the level needed to extract the truth behind the known LBMA registration of Enron and the suspected heavy offshore gold "carry trade" shorting [Set up secretly by JPM].
++++++++++++++++
April 9, 2002

Enron Plea Boosts Gov't in Court

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 8:06 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The admission in court Tuesday by a senior auditor at Arthur Andersen LLP that he broke the law destroying documents in Enron's collapse gives U.S. prosecutors a powerful tool in the broadening financial investigation, legal experts said.

David B. Duncan, a partner at the Andersen accounting firm who was fired in January, could provide the government with details about Enron's most controversial deals preceding its dramatic failure in December, along with insights into what the Justice Department says was Andersen's widespread and illegal shredding of related papers and e-mails, experts said.

``I predict he has many songs to sing,'' said Lowell Peterson, a New York lawyer with Meyer, Suozzi, English and Klein, which is pursuing severance benefits on behalf of about 40 Enron employees. ``I would be more worried if I were an Enron officer; Duncan didn't shred these documents for nothing.''
timbervision
miner69er
Dear miner69er...Your two posts 73007 and 73051 demand comprehension for anyone wanting to better understand this gold situation. From Cavan Man's post his question finished with "do you exercise good judgement and prudence and sell those same paper instruments because they are not delivering what you paid for?" Does he mean "you paid for" them to go up in a leveraged way with a rising price of gold? So far they have been moving up with the price of gold in a leveraged way, so is that not what "you paid for" them to do. Is Cavan Man referring to the retracement this week of the mining shares? And are you, in your second post, saying the same thing when you say "these guys are now perceiving the storm against which they are not protected, and are exiting the arena."?

A question which really supercedes the above is one of definition. When we refer to paper gold are we absolutely including mining shares, hedged and unhedged. I thought I understood from FOA that the reason mining shares would underperform gold bullion was because as the price of gold takes off, governments will either nationalize gold mines or tax them heavily, to in effect steal the mining companies day in the sun and rob the shareholders of there just rewards (at least in the unhedged mines). I understand that other paper gold vehicles exist, but my question specifically calls attention to unhedged mining shares.

As an aside, I understand that mathematically as the price of gold goes up, the value of the mining shares leverage decreases vis-a-vis gold, but that is not what we are talking about here.

Thanks,
timbervision
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
TOP 10 goldbug book list............U-Vote-2........
#1"The Great Reckoning"
by James Dale Davidson, lord Rees Mog
Why? Because in America we have very little financial history only about 300 years. And what's there to know on the big island of Dr. Moro. We invented the houses on the hills where we push aside the older generation that may have had some wisdom. It's our culture to embrace the new and reject the old. All that means, the lemmings keep a leapin and the #1 book will never be a best seller here. It's full of historical realities beyond the dimensions of delusional dollar-surreallyosis, a disease commonly found among partially educated populations who no longer read.

#2"Sovereign Individual" same authors. Taking it into the twilight zone. A little way out but it's not to be missed. Makes megatrends read like a dime novel.

#3 Farenheight 451 I don't know who wrote it but those guys at the river were living on barter and gold and silver were there too. Sci-fi that became reality about 5 years ago. History is being re-written for political correctness, reduced to CD-Rom and scanned for objectionable concepts. Your burnt books. Kids on legal dope Riddlin. Basic "NO Discipline " policy enforced at home while being administered through the schools, "one bruse and he's gone". Children are the property of the state..........eeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeoooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

#4 How to Be Rich by J. Paul Getty. Its philosophy of a blue collar guy who had pounds of common sense.

#5 The ABCs of Gold Investing by Michael J. Kosares. Runs the golden thread down through history and how gold is history. A good "base" gold book to gain perspective from.
And you can just look at the front cover instead of digging up your stash to "see the gold glitter one more time".

#6-9 for others to define

#10 Amen, the book of all books, Solomon's Wisdom is in there. Had to be last cuz the last is becoming first.



CoBra(too)- I never read "crashmasters" is it good. Does it read like Isaiah 24, Daniel 11-12. Zechariah 12-14.
============================================================
We can buy-n-bury or dig up and re-denominate, bottom line is it's all in a migration pattern in a 3000 year Jerusalem cycle. May the streets be under your feets.
Solomon Weaver
miner49er (04/09/02; 20:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 73051)
Nice post Miner

Where we seem to stand right now is that the paper price of gold "does" fit the physical price....in the sense that MK and those folks in Japan and Dubai are paying that price in the physical markets.

If papergold was like bonds or stock certificates, we could anticipate that as their "claim on real gold" came into question, and their "claim on counterparty payment" thus became compromised, they could plummet in value as nobody would want to hold them.

The part which will be very hard to avoid is falling into the illusion that the paper price of gold is the physical price.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Pre-1971 metals markets had to exist but in what form?
So what type of "market" did mined gold sell under before 1971? That would be the throwback to a possible future scenario when gold would be confiscated by a failing gubermint, like Argentina for example, that just keeps on printing money backed by "dudes in suits in suites".
Black Blade
Gold Analyst SJ Kaplan Blows It Bad

I see that Gold analyst SJ Kaplan is "STRONGLY BEARISH" on gold, just as he has been for the last several months. I find that quite amusing as he has completely missed out on the whole Bull Market rally in Gold. I looks to me as if he foolishly pissed away his time signaling a Bear Market in Gold and missed the whole event while many people doubled (or more) their earnings in Gold shares and those with physical were secure in the rising value of their share of portfolio insurance while the equities markets floundered. Of course anyone who followed his advice on shorting Amazon.com and Ebay at the time of his recommendation would have been whipsawed so badly, they would be in the Poor House long ago. He is quite a contrary indicator.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") - "Fahrenheit 451"

"Fahrenheit 451", wasn't that written by Ray Bradbury? I do admit, his concept of Fireman was interesting. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Colin Powell Ordered To Stay Away From Israel For "A Few Days"

An interesting revelation came today as Colin Powell was seated with the King of Morocco for a photo op. During this period with cameras flashing and cameras rolling, the King asked Colin Powell "Why are you here and not in Jerusalem?"

Colin Powell was understood to have replied that Ariel Sharon needed "more time".

Where did Powell go next? He went to Cairo of course. Next he will go to Madrid for a meeting with European leaders, some who expressed concern and are hinting at sanctions against Israel. While this American Nero fiddles, cities in the West Bank burn.

It appears that this war will last for quite some time yet. Israeli tanks and troops pulled back from Nablus and Jenin and invaded a couple of other towns in the West Bank. Gold and Oil prices retreated on the news, however, it appears that the drop in prices may be a bit premature.

Oil supply could be cut back as the Venezuela strike and the Iraqi embargo take oil off the market. Iran and Libya (and now possibly Algeria) are threatening to join the embargo. All this is occurring at the start of the traditional Spring/Summer "Driving Season". Also note that insolvent Japanese banks are reporting greater losses than expected while at the same time the Japanese government is plowing Yen into the Nikkei to prop up the market. US markets are under assault by a push from the SEC for transparency, accounting scandals, crushing consumer and corporate debt, lowered corporate earnings and earnings warnings. Even so, Gold and Oil prices are dropping tonight. However, with so many problems plaguing the Globe it won't take much to push Petroleum and PM prices higher.

- Black Blade
Waverider
What really killed Argentina?
http://atimes.com/global-econ/DD10Dj02.htmlSnippit:
"So the Argentine economy has collapsed and social and financial chaos reigns.

We have read a great deal about it, but very few analysts have mentioned the actual and fundamental cause of this disaster. To do so is too horrifying, for what has destroyed Argentina is the same cause at work all over the world today. Argentina's fate is the world's fate - and that is too drastic a conclusion for any analyst who wants to be paid for his work.

Argentina's fate was determined by the deliberations of John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White when they drew up the Bretton Woods Agreement as World War II was coming to an end. There, they created what France's General Charles de Gaulle later called "an exorbitant privilege": the right, pertaining to the victorious United States, to have its dollars considered as equivalent to gold in the reserves of central banks the world over.

What killed Argentina? In the last analysis, a world monetary system that turned its back on gold. Under the previous system, the gold standard, there was a minimum of exploitation. Gold only moved from one country to another in minimal amounts to settle transitory differences in value of goods and services traded. There was no system of worldwide payment of tribute in favor of one country, as today. Not surprisingly, financial crises were the exception, not the rule.

An equitable and stable world will not emerge until gold reassumes its role as the world's money."

Waverider: An *interesting* and provocative article. Cheers!
Black Blade
Another Suicide Bomber

Just over the wire is another suicide bomber takes out a bus in Haifa. Preliminary reports are that at least 10 are dead. Looks like the palestine invasion has not stopped the suicide bombers. If anything, the violence is intensifying.
Pippin
@All : many thanks for your help (my question related to POG level)
Things are becoming clearer.
Belgian
Fundamentals + Intuition + T. Interpretations =
Hyperinflation is on its way to MANIFEST itself, shortly !
The coming, still possible decline, in the different indicators WILL BE THE LAST ONE ! Many of the past falsified TRENDS gave a "break" signal and announce a coming reversal of those trends !
The anxieties about POO / ECONOMY are on the rise (US-O'Neil/Euroland-analysts). The signs indicating w're on a one-way street become more visible for the blablablah-ers.

At today's 100th day of the euro-currency, the architects are on a program of euro-deepening acts to be implemented within the next 2 years (monetary+fiscal harmonizations)!
The euro will not stop COMPETING with the dollar ! First Prize = reserve status + revalued wealth asset of FREE GOLD !
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
So where is this new bottom anyway?
From the 30 day chart it seems serious resistance is around 295, but that triple dip Elliott rolldown in Sydney overnight could be leading to the first leg at 297. Why? Look at the angle of the pop off of 297. If it retouches 297 and comes up a little from there then maybe that was all the near of 295 that it's going to get. I'm looking for a small double bottom with the gateway to the new wild west arch in the middle. The shorts are feeling no pain at this point and it's simply picturesque to see them get so over-extended. Just when they're licking their chops the kid slams through the door and crams the jelly donut into Daddy short's new $310 suit he paid $299 for. Can you imagine all the buy stops being placed slightly above 300. It's going to momentum through 300 like a John Deere cutting through onion-grass. The preceding announcement contains certain "forward looking statements". Readers are asked to wear safety belts and keep their arms in the vehicle for the duration of the ride.
===========================================================
Ore what if............The Israelis posture instead of pull back. Pullin back isn't worth a wasted suicide bomber. Barbed wire and fence posts, don't leave home without them. What will you do? What will you do? Next time your aunt gets blown up for shopping at the mall. Carry only genuine barbed-wire and fence posts. Accepted all over the third world for creating "safety" in a war zone. Once the wire goes up then you pull back the troops you don't need anymore and leave behind the "security force". Well done young Jedi...sit up a little, its good for your posture.
Pippin
@ Gauntlett - your 73068
<>

So there IS a use for the Elliott Wave Theory in Precious Metals :-)

At what Wave Degree do you expect a change to take place ? Minor-Intermediate-Primary etc.?
Hipplebeck
Gold down overnight
I see England's Ozzie puppets were selling again last night
Hipplebeck
Glaring hypocracy in the age of the politaclly correct
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the country that has everyone condemning the killing of civilians in war the same country that dropped nuclear bombs on cities?
Black Blade
Gold Hits $300/oz.
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Gold is making a good solid move since trading on London. Oil was higher though Natural Gas is now higher. The Middle East situation is heating up as a suicide bomber takes out a bus load in Haifa. Bush and Euro leaders tell Sharon to get out of West Bank and Sharon tells Bush to mind his own business. This is getting "Interesting". Also, Iran says that they will join Iraqi embargo if another muslim OPEC producer will join also.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
That Didn't Last Long

Gold just did a huge U-Turn. Hmmm...
RobotGuy
War?
I've been reading about suicide bombings for several years now. There is no war, there are many acts of cowardice, and returned acts of vengeance, but I wouldn't consider the ME mess a war. A war is something my grandfather fought in, where there are mass numbers of soldiers committed to battle, not a bunch of civilians getting blown up in a restaraunt.
My father is a strong believer in the christian faith, and he and others I know who are also christians have been telling me for years that Armageddon is just around the corner. Listen to yourselves, do you realize how many hundreds of years people have been saying that? As we all tippy toe around the Middle East and try not to stir things up too much because we wouldn't want to trigger the end times. It isn't stated in the media, but isn't that what the big scary deal is? I'm sorry, but I just don't buy that. I don't mean to bash religion, because that's an age old battle, after all it's what everything in the 'holy' land is about. Can't we all just hold hands and be friends? Hyah right.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Ramblings before the rumble.
It seems there is some contention as to why gold would go up during deflationary times. We don't want to talk about that. Well, I need my porridge just right, or I don't eat.

page 447 The Great Reckoning...........
Warning signs of deflation:
-continued shrinkage of M-2
-double digit increases in the portion of the money supply that is held as cash
-flight from high risk bank instruments, a widening of the ted spread between T-bills and eurodollars
-a dramatic drop in the market price of freely trading instruments that mimic the valuation of bank collateral
-falling commodity prices. But note that a rising nominal price of gold implies either the crunch is still ahead or it is already passed. *****At the end of past credit cycles, the real price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, THEN RISEN SHARPLY.
-continued declines in real estate, in spite of easy money
-a fall in loan demand in the face of falling interest rates.

from page 503
The extreme character of these monetary risks can be judged from history. Five credit cycles have come to an end over the past three centuries, the last in 1929. On average, the price of gold in real terms rose within four years of the end of the cycle to exceed its high of a decade earlier by 8.5 percent in real terms. This implies that the inflation-(or deflation) adjusted price of gold would come to about $1600 in 1990 dollars. A tremendous monetary disturbance lies in store if history repeats itself.

page 510, right after they say buy some gold in Guideline #9

There is also more than a slight possibility that political and economic breakdown would force governments to revert to gold-backed money to reliquify a bankrupt world.

The authors are not goldbugs and they even say to buy gold. They say gold doesn't go up during deflation but rises sharply at the ending of the credit cycle. So the inversive is the ease of credit. Sprint can't get loans with short term paper. Unsecured loans are drying up for weak corporations and I think it will move on down to light commercial and eventually the consumer level. Rates are low but the banksters are scared to lend to all the new needy loosers. As we saw the ending of the deflation by gold's 250 low, we now see the buildout of the gold mining stock patterns, in reverse symmetry to the past two years. Before the spikes were caused by short squeezes and didn't last long. Now we see prices stubborn to retrace even 50%. This buildout is different. In the economy we see inflation mixed with deflation. Oil is up but China crap is down. 0% financing (deflationary) but do YOU qualify? I surmise that the deflation is ending as monopolies reform from mergers and with the competitors in chapter 11, the new monopoly raises prices and has little competition. It has been said an American would rather have an inflated dollar than no dollar at all. The government's decision to apease the troubled masses vs. their interest in protecting owners of their debt, the bond holders, is a big important question. I'm not trying or go Orwell 84 on everybody but its looks to me the way US policy is clearly reactionary and not proactive in design. We are headed for a German model of at first monotering all flows of everything everywhere. That gives peace to the planners. They will stretch out their arms and want to measure everything. Ceasar's census is stage 1. How much is M-3 and where is it going? No need for currency controls if you can assign the beavers new places to keep the dam up. Stage 2 is reacting the big leaks over the dam. Limiting repatriation and reducing bond sales by old bond holders. Stage 3 is knowing stage 2 won't work so they enact controls with computerzation against the lemmings. 25 million daytraders simultaneously shorting stock was too much antacid for the big boys to handle. So they enacted rules to eliminate shorting capabilities of the little traders. Margins gone and your boat can only float downstream now. I found an eddy current in gold and the sun is shining in my boat through the trees. Taxes are going way up in tandom with the postage increases, even worse. They can sugar coat their speeches but the accountants will not be sleeping when the dwindling tax revenues don't come in. Budget surplus was a mountain spring but it's now summertime and the critters are dried up in the muddy hole way downstream. Pour on the umemployment baby. Government is dumping out is dead and by droping wage levels they will hire them all back for 1/3 the price. You eliminate a job costing you $50,000 and create two more that each pay $15,000. Import some more cheap rubber spears from China and keep the natives happy. The Clintoons were masters of disinformation. Perot had the flip charts. Reality check? No just split off the white male vote and sabatoge the conervative vote. Clintooned again. Now Bush has to wash all the dishes after the party. Taxes will go up so high he'll be running for the bushes. The "war is good for the economy" only works when you can do things like going to the moon and have money in he bank instead of IOUs. Late 60's early 70's was the zenith of America's industrial might. Well the gym was sweaty and dirty so we took up jogging. High tech is on, we can talk instead of drive. Sorry pilgrims, telecommunications is a service not and industry. Gambling at casinos, lotteries and race tracks is a service not an industry. It is going to take more than consumer spending at pizza shops and nail-care salons to revive the giant. Will dollars be redeamable in Chinese produced goods forever? Study the port history in western Russia, the fur trade with China. What did China do to lower prices on furs they bought? THEY CLOSED THE PORT. Sun Tzu carries a mean shank. They'll get you addicted to their imports like economic opium, then they'll cut you off and watch with glee as you go into withdrawl. South American solid labor is America's ace in the hole. We can leverage our industries with it. Europe doesn't have it. I'm a goldbug but the way some gold bugs want to live in shelters and the like........Where's da luv mun. Lets talk about a higher quality of life with gold if it's at all possible. Johnny panned for some gold and a caught a trout which he shared with his neighbor. Johnny was a good guy and had a good woman. And lived in a good house and used his guns for hunting.

But one man's doomsday is another's dreamscape. We need to be at the right place at the right time to survive. Don't be counting your K-rations in New Jersey, just bury some beans in Wyoming. Learn from the wildabeast to avoid the mark of the beast...move to where the food is. He only has power where there are lots of dumb lemmings and electricity. Gerbels and chips with wheels for them to run on. Outback digger dudes with 4 wheel drive vehicles and no gasoline. Where's a towelhead when you want to trade gold for a camel. How many ounces for that mule in the window? Hey, I was talking positive. I always smiled when I was on the pony ride.
miner49er
timbervision @ 73057 - Paper Gold, etc...
Hi, timbervision - just quickly, as I gotta run...

a) Your Q: "Does he mean "you paid for" them to go up in a leveraged way with a rising price of gold?"

The issue is again, and most, most importantly, why do the institutional risk-managers participate in these markets to begin with?

They engage a different thought process from the speculator. The spec is trying to find a way to leverage the existing system in his favor by getting out in front of what he perceives to be the system's weaknesses. Thus, he would be the one prone to say, "Look at all the reasons gold SHOULD be increasing, but it's barely up 10%, I can't park my money here forever, I'm outta here!" He would, by getting out, be saying in effect that the angle he thought he could work, was unworkable. Or that his timing was so far off, it doesn't meet his objectives to just sit and wait.

This is not what the risk-manager is saying. He is managing risk. Risk of what? Here, the dollar, or some instrument that relies on the dollar. If the dollar performs with stability and predictability, he is happy. His hedge in paper gold is only there to mitigate, and help smooth out RELATIVELY minor bumps and glitches. He might, say, import some raw material for his business. If the dollar devalues a bit and his costs are up 5%, he wants to be able to offset that with a cash gain in some instrument that provides nothing more than ballast for his operation. If paper contracts provide him cash gains to offset accordingly, his objective is reached. He again is happy.

If statistics were reliable, and honest, an inflation indexed government note would work. But they are not, and indexed notes are suckers bets. So he goes for the gold, and because in a world where the cash price in dollars is, by design, kept relatively stable in terms of the metal, these guys go for the cash contracts -- for the cash benefits. This ties over into another question you had:

b) "And are you, in your second post, saying the same thing when you say 'these guys are now perceiving the storm against which they are not protected, and are exiting the arena.'?"

Since "these guys," the risk-managers, are not thinking along the lines of the speculator above, they are not getting out because of the system's failure to have produced sufficient price action -- so far. In terms of their business, the system has, is, and still is providing sufficient price action, but just barely now... And it is the forecast, that it may not do its job much longer, that is causing the slow, snowballing exodus of the large commercial player. He, again, is not saying, "My gosh, look at the aggregates, the current acct. deficit, the Mid East, oil, etc., gold should be skyrocketing! This is ridiculous! ..Ciao!" That is more the mindset of the spec. The risk manager, on the other hand has been happy with the market's performance, as it has successfully managed his risk, by providing the little bits of "hedge" when needed. Yet, for the most part it has not been needed, since the insured instrument -- the dollar -- has performed as desired. Only NOW is he starting to notice, that the dollar, in WHATEVER business aspect he is concerned with, is devaluing, and that his hedging instruments (paper gold), are beginning to NOT keep pace, and that conditions are that the market is slipping, and his instruments may NOT be credible much longer.

So, what does the crusty old commercial institutional manager do...? Wait for a spike, and sell into it like there's no tomorrow...

Consider this also. I'm speaking here mostly of long contract holders whose business requirements need to protect against a weakening dollar... Hence they go long to make up in a higher gold price. What of the evisceration in U.S. manufacturing, who's real-live, warm-blooded people, who run these businesses, must also live with the devastation they experience from a STRONG dollar...? This is surely some of the force behind the short gold...? These guys, recognizing a trend to a weaker gold price, most likely hedge the other way around. Much more risky, but maybe it is as FOA says here, "So how will these big derivative players make out on their paper gold loans and paper gold shorts? I think they will make a fortune because they understood Another better than the Western Gold bugs could!"

c) Lastly - mining shares...

Yes, mathematically the leverage does decrease proportionately as POG increases. Say a mine brings to market at 270, and gold is 280. Gold at 294 is a 5% rise, but the miner sees a 140% increase per oz. Gold goes now another 5% to 308.70. The mine now sees only a 61.25% gain relative to the POG increase, ceteris paribus, of course... The big issue here is this little Latin stuff which we like to use to make us look smart... "The rest being equal..." Hmmm...

If POG increases, then prices are also increasing, and thus wages, oil, and every other cost... The mine is not likely to keep costs at 270 for long in this scenario. This makes some difference, but is not that terribly important while gold is still at these levels -- and the dollar is still at its levels. The price of gold presumably should beat the price increases. A significant increase in gold portends more ominous conditions however, and those conditions are the transition out of the dollar to the euro. The very hyperinflation that mine speculators want to leverage -- as they see this manifesting in the POG -- will come about because of the transition to the euro. This hyperinflation WILL be felt overwhelmingly in dollar costs, that WILL make a big impact on the mines' profits.

It seems odd to want to speculate on the impending discrediting of the dollar, by buying investments and bets denominated in the very instrument one believes will be discredited...

This compounded with all the other pain and woe: nationalizing, rapacious taxation, regulation, plus takeovers by hungry hedgers..., and you have a very risky sandbox in which to now play with your hard earned, and scarce capital... so in my opinion...

...So much for just quickly... Hope this makes things clearer to you,

miner
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USAGOLD
Religious Posts
Discussions on religion tend to inflame. Let's not get caught up in that trap at this gold forum.

Long scriptural postings have little or nothing to do with the price of gold in New York.

Sorry to all for lifting those posts. I know we have many spiritually oriented clientele, but this isn't the place for it. Most of you who are clientele know where I stand on this.

Please work with me on this. MK
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
When volumes fall back on a handle.....
Volumes for goldshares traded have been falling off on the daily chart and it means sellers are less and less. Selling momentum is abating. Longs have not jumped in as it's a little scarey to be buying into a pullback without confirmation. Well all the "talk" aside Goldfields and Harmony are pushing 6 and 7% up for the day. When these skitish longs come back they are going to find market makers empty of stock and when you can't catch the bus and it means a trip to Bermuda or not. You run hard and catch that bus. Chasing it. Partial fills only, and moving right past them. I don't know why the goldstock patterns shed good light on a POG breakout, even better than the gold futures patterns. So why do trees grow in the woods? So birds can land in them. But they do and today we were headed for the breakaway down or up. This three flags up with the first one being rounded over IS a mega-breakout pattern. It doesn't always rocket launch up but I've seen it on AIPN went from 1 1/8 to 4 in three days a year or two ago. I normllly only see it happen to the tech pennystocks absorbing mutual fund money. The bid ask spreads are tight and mostly larger numbers on the bid. If it stays that way all day it's a minor breakout begun. The last hour will tell. Shorts get squeezed, buyers can jump in or out. Everyone's going to stir their coffee more than twice today. Guess I'll have to go to GOLDEN corral today to eat yellow corn bread and shiney buttered potatoes. It was not raining today, it's all liquid sunshine.
CoBra(too)
Re: "Crashmaker"
@ "GR2" - Crashmaker - A federal Affair, recently published and authored by Victor Sperandeo and Alvaro Almeida. It's about a group crashing the FED and fiat regime and re-instating a goldstandard.
James Turk has warmly recommended it last fall, though I'm only trough part one, I would think it's a great read.
Regards cb2
RobotGuy
I apologise MK, I shouldn't have. Feel free to delete "War?" also if it is out of context. Thank-you.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Elliot Wave Theory
Pippin:

Elliot wave theory patterns human psychology and the oscillations of mood swings among the traders. He said bull and baer movements occur in groups of three or five waves. A flag would be two waves, one up and one down. PDG was doing 3 mountain tops often and in a three wave sequence. Its all cocktail talk fodder. 20-20 hindsight is a help for providing some humility but when we are at the end of the third wave Elliot himself said he can't tell if it goes on to wave 4 and 5. If you dig in deep to the theory it is valid as you can see it all over the charts. The little three wave rift down I see it as a small sellout indicator in the short term. Long term look at MDG as it did three loops down to 11.30 about two weeks ago. That slinky roll down in three waves is what Elliot wave theory is about. PDG goes up slow and falls hard, say 5 up and 3 down. Most are up in 3 and may go down in 5. In the yearly chart on a daily candle. I look at prior valuations during 380 gold from 94-96. We may be in for a ride. I gave up trying to guess intraday volatility and I only mentioned the three wave rift in Sydney because it was cool and I was bored. Look at the small M bottom completed in NY this morning. They are supposed to be level and this is on an incline. The roller coaster has that ratchet sound on the safety catch going on up. They all thought the high handle was going to crash with a big red streak down......why, we are at war with an unseen enemy. The national debt is only 6 TRILLION dollars compounding at what percent.

G$
(No Subject)
Anybody got word on the $2.6 move up in gold futures?

G$
Mr Gresham
Wow! miner49er, GR2
miner: You surpass yourself these past few days. I have only about 1/9 the usual time available to read, so I'll print yours and also be back for thorough re-read of the discussions. You bridge that "big pictur"/"our picture" gap with your added perspectives.

GR2 -- You rock! Keep it rolling.

an All-Star cast here today, even the "OT" is so "T"al. Add a little rain: Spring flowers bloom in fertile soil...
RobotGuy
GR2 - - - Elliot wave
You know sir, I never had any training in playing with the markets, I just jumped in and started swimming. I have noticed this type of pattern and thought to myself how peculiar! If people knew this was happening why wouldn't the wave pattern randomly change. I am glad to see that I wasn't imagining this!
Thank-you for your post!!

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.
Mr Gresham
But then...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=sC'mon, baby! Break 306 and I'll take the rest of the day off!
RobotGuy
Miner49er - - - "It seems odd to want to speculate on the impending discrediting of the dollar, by buying investments and bets denominated in the very instrument one believes will be discredited..."
I have considered this on another occasion, and after some serious thought, I have come to a conclusion. If let's say gold were to be revalued according to a devaluation of currency, then everything related to gold would be modified to suit that new value. For example let's say a dollar today is worth a penny tomorrow. Suddenly the price of gold is 30000 dollars, but let's not forget gasolene bread and fresh oysters, which have also become 200, 100, and 500 relatively speaking. My point is, that my shares are related to gold, because I have lent my hard earned dollars to Mr. Miner and he is producing the product that everyone wants which is now worth 30000. As suddenly as the value of my dollar is .001 and gold is worth 30000 my shares will also be worth their relative value. Perhaps I may no longer be able to trade my useless fiat for gold at 300 dollars an ounce, but I know someone who owes me gold.

Just my idea.

RobotGuy.
goldfool
Current violence in the ME not going to abate until Saddam is removed from power.
It's pretty obvious to this casual observer that the flames of war and terrorism in Israel and the occupied territories are not going to abate until Saddam is removed from power. Knowing that he is the next most likely candidate in Bush's war on terrorism Saddam is hoping that he can postpone his day of reckoning by providing the Palestinian terrorists with the moral and material support needed to continue the current violence and in the meantime increase anti-Israeli sentiment throughout the region and in the world in particular. (Note that he has turned off the oil spigot for 30 days, increased the amount paid to families of suicide bombers, etc.). On the other side of the coin I wouldn't expect Bush or Powell to get too agressive in their demands for an Israeli pull-out from the occupied territories. This was probably a coordinated effort in the planning by the White House and Sharon who seized upon an opportunity to root out the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure before the US takes on Iraq. Israel knows that it is a primary target for retaliation if and when the US starts its offensive against Iraq so why not at least clear the immediate area of weapons and extremists prior to any hostilities and hopefully the only threat they'll have to deal with is from the air where they have overwhelming superiority. Interesting to note also that Mr. Bush is using the current unrest in the ME and the spike in oil/gas prices to promote in Congress the passage of legislation to drill in ANWAR to reduce foreign dependence. I have to ask myself why are the Republicans and Bush so focused on this issue considering the other problems the country faces both at home and abroad? Being an Independent and considering the risks and rewards of the situation I have come to the conclusion that it basically boils down to it being a symtom of the ever-increasing polarity that exists in Congress between Republicans and Democrats. Hopefully in the long run they can put their ideological differences behind them and be objective in their decision making on all issues and do what's best for the majority fo the people of this country.
Sierra Madre
News from Kuwait...

I received this e-mail from a friend this morning; I have deleted names to preserve privacy:

"-----------, an attorney -accountant that lives here in ----------, is in London today. Shutting down a Kuwait oil company. ------- is on the Board of Directors and according to his wife ------ who advised me this afternoon that the Kuwaities will not load the company's American Flag tankers. The company owns three such tankers so their purpose to continue operations is over and now closing down."

It appears the idea of a selective embargo on oil exports is getting some real support.

Sierra
Truthcaster
Greenspam got woke from his nap
I can just see it, old greenie was kicked back in his
big leather backed chair when all at once his computer
cried out WARNING! WARNING! Gold is at 300 and ounce and rising. He wakes startled because things were going
great today the dow was up the dollar looked in good shape
gold was down a little oil was only up a hair. So we thought
sure I can squeeze a little nap in before lunch. Oh well
to bad.. 300 and ounce, were back baby!
RobotGuy
Truthcaster
You didn't say GREEN leather backed chair, but that is what I envisioned. Bizzare how we interpret things, it must be true, cause the image popped into my head instantly :)

Cheers!
Trapper
Mr. Robot Guy
I think the answer to your delima on the pricing of gold stocks in dollars can be fixed by one of two methods. The one I like is buy a company who pays its divend in Gold as a few are now doing. This is a trend that I'm sure will expand.
Second buy a mine that is priced in a fiat that you like. There are a couple of apologist here who think the Euro will be the fiat of the future. Live small.
RJ
Cavan Man
@miner49er
Valuing Paper AssetsWatching the US equity markets one can see the sharp contrast between wishful thinking and reality; a definite disconnect. Likewise, we witness the Comex disconnect eh?
RobotGuy
I really need to get back into literature, I find the more I ponder ideas and wish to share, the harder it becomes to express my intended message.
Gimli_
NY gold resuscitated by AngloGold hedge reductions
URL: http://investor.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9676523-0.html NY gold resuscitated by AngloGold hedge reductions
04/10/02 12:20 PM
Source: Reuters
URL: http://investor.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9676523-0.html

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - COMEX gold jumped on Wednesday, recovering from early profit taking after top-tier South African producer AngloGold Ltd. said it was "aggressively" running down its hedge book.

Though the company gave no details, saying only that it was taking advantage of market conditions, June gold accelerated a mild morning bounce back above the $300 an ounce level around which it has consolidated recent gains all week.
------------snip------------
The trend toward reduced selling by gold companies has been bullish for gold this year. The tone was set by U.S.-based Newmont Mining, after it bought Australia's Normandy Mining, became the world's largest producer, and pledged to unwind Normandy's large hedge book and avoid all hedging.

Producers hedge by selling their output forward to lock in prices and protect themselves against falls in the market. But it can work against their interests because heavy hedging activity can prevent the price of gold from rising.

"We haven't changed our hedging policy per se, but market conditions at the moment dictate that we are running down our hedge book and we have been for a little while," AngloGold Financial Director Jonathan Best told Reuters.

AngloGold closed 1.7 million ounces in its hedge book in the last quarter of 2001, leaving it with a hedge book of 14.6 million ounces. Best said the company was reducing its book because it was more bullish on the gold price and because U.S. interest rates are low, raising the cost of carrying short gold positions.
USAGOLD
All. . .Anglo Hedge Book
Looks like Belgian was right when he said that Anglo was going for debt financing in order to run down its hedge book.

Good call, Belgian!

Also, here was a hint of things to come as published Monday at the News & Views page/Short & Sweet section:

"Dow Jones reports that mega-hedger Anglo American seeks debt restructuring under a proposal to sell $1 billion in debt instruments. Hedge funds, the report goes on, immediately began to short the South African miner's stock. Anglo American doesn't have a formal credit rating, but one analyst told Dow Jones 'it is viewed by the market as a BBB company -- the lowest category in investment grade."

Comment: With hedge funds making a target of Anglo (as a company to short), it seems they figured they'd better do something to make themselves less unattractive.

This could be big news, my fellow goldmeisters -- significant as an industry trend likely to put a rising floor under the market.
silvester
SingLion

Anyboby else read the post by SingLion at another forum? Sounded very familiar.
LeSin
Pure FOA/Trail Guide from SingLion @ GE Forum
Sylvester
I have not checked The Trail, however like you, I thought surely, Singlion's post content at the GE Forum was lifted from FOA/TG's Gold Trail USA Gold Site.
With repect to SingLion, I do not think that it was intentional as he is a champion for Another & FOA/TG views and message re gold & currencies.
Cheers "S"
LeSin
"Silvester" not "Sylvester" - Apologies Sir
Sorry

"S"

Arcticfox
http://www.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9674451-0.html?tag=ats
NY gold pops after AngloGold says cutting hedges
4/10/02 9:35 AM
Source: Reuters

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - The following are New York midday prices and market updates for precious metals and copper:

GOLD

COMEX June gold at 1228 EST up $1.80 at $301.40 an ounce, recovering from early slippage and accelerating a bit after South Africa's Anglogold says running down hedge book aggressively. Range so far $298.10-$301.70. Gold digesting the 37,000 contract long, still supported by firm oil prices and safe-haven buying after Israel vows to carry on its offensive. Estimated volume 16,000 contracts at noon. Open interest rose 1,434 on Tuesday. Spot gold quoted at $299.10/9.60, up from the close at $298.10/60. The last fix in London was $298.


SILVER

COMEX May silver was up 5.2 cents at $4.61 an ounce, recovering morning slippage and trading a $4.53-$4.61 range. Volume at midday was 11,000 lots. Spot silver fetched $4.60/62, up from $4.54/56. The fix was at $4.555.



R Powell
Singlion's post
LeSin and Silvester
I also saw that post and thought exactly as you did. As to Singlion's connection with FOA or Another I have absolutely no knowledge but did notice that several posters there did ask precisely that question.
It seems logical that those convinced of the truth or probable fulfillment of any prediction would talk of it especially after spending a great deal of time assimulating, disciphering or comprehending it. Perhaps Singlion is just such a person. I have lurked there for many years and have learned which to read and which to bypass. Singlion, I read.
*********
Comex open interest was actually increased yesterday (on a price down day) very slightly but up on both gold and silver. Tomorrow's paper will give today's numbers. More new contracts indicate a growing interest in PM.
What great fun!
Rich
Simply Me
The End of Bargain Basement Prices, America
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APLSm0BTsU2VhcnMg&ao=2270820404/10 16:55
Sears Shares Rise After Profit Forecast Increased

"Chief Executive Alan Lacy is tightening controls on inventory at the largest U.S. department-store company's more than 800 stores by reducing the number of suppliers. The changes allow Sears to offer fewer discounts, which widened profit margins in the first quarter, and may boost earnings this year."

Simply says: Those suppliers who are being cut are going to be hurting with the loss of such a big buyer. Sears is not alone in this trend. It's just good business. More layoffs, bankruptcies, etc, for manufacturers. Rising prices for the consumer. This is just the beginning of the inflation. Add the ME conflict, rising oil costs and possible interest rate hikes later this year...and "BAM", as Emeril Lugossi would say, "We're gonna crank it up a notch!", gold, that is.

Simply
Black Blade
Japan � Is It just The Banks That Are Insolvent � Or Is It The Whole Damn Country?

Recently George "Dubya" Bush went to China and on his way he stopped over in Japan for a "courtesy call" on Japanese Prime Minister Junichero Koizumi. The problem it seems is that this was no ordinary "courtesy call" or just a couple of chums yukking it up over a few cases of sake. It seems that the problem of Japan's insolvent banks and failing currency are very likely to drag the rest of the world into a deep Global Depression and the Japanese aren't doing much to stop it.

Japan is the world's second largest economy and it also has the world's largest level of public debt to the tune of 140% of GDP. That's a colossal load of debt. Across this Island nation bankruptcies and unemployment are rising to new record levels never seen before. The Nikkei 225 has recently hit new lows, consumer confidence is nearly nonexistent, and consumer prices are falling fast. In fact housing prices are falling to levels not seen since 1982. Many properties are priced far below the mortgage values creating some major concerns for the insolvent Japanese banks (more on this later).

Joblessness, bankruptcy, crime, and suicide were once almost unheard of in Japan, and now these problems are so common that they rarely even make it to the back pages of Japanese newspapers. These days it is not uncommon to see middle-age educated men and even some women walking about in Japan's cities begging for money with signs around their necks that read "Restructured" � that's Japanese for fired or shuffled off to the "Bone Pile".

Actually the biggest crisis may be the failed Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan is hard pressed to keep the printing presses running 24 hours a day to offset the growing liquidity crisis. The Yen recently hit about 135 Yen to the US Dollar. This of course is a major concern to US manufacturers who depend on exports as a chief source of income and the increased competition from a weakened Yen is resulting in much of the US "Bone Pile" growth. But it is actually much worse than that � this crisis will likely trigger currency devaluations throughout the Asian community. This may very well result in "Asian Contagion � Part II".

The Japanese have even forsaken the Yen in some quarters. The massive "run for the Gold" is partial evidence of this falling confidence in the country's currency. In fact a new currency is circulating now. This script is called "Yufu". Actually it is more of a barter script. People contribute their skills (under the table of course) for Yufu that they can exchange for goods and services. Japan is in the beginning stages of a growing currency crisis and it is no wonder that the Japanese people are "going for the Gold" (or platinum, or almost any hard asset).

The Insolvent Japanese banking sector is not a pretty sight either. Here Japanese banks have over $5 Trillion in debt that they are not willing to (or can't) write off. They are trying to collect on these bad debts. The result is that suicide and bankruptcy rates are accelerating and Japanese bankers are going so far as to hire armed martial arts experts to collect from some unsavory characters (such as members of the Japanese mob � Yakuza). The banks are being forced to write off bad loans while the rate of bad loans are growing even faster. That results in a loss of confidence that leads to even more bad loans (a death spiral).

It appears that it is now up to Koizumi to drum up yet another bailout for Japan's banks (the fifth since 1998). If anyone here thinks that the US S&L crisis in the 1980's was bad, this Japanese banking crisis makes that look rather insignificant. This crisis will sink Japan and its economy to the point of total collapse and in the process take many of the world's economies with it. So what has the Japanese government done? So far they have changed regulations that allow for guaranteeing only the first $75,000 in time deposits beginning on April Fools Day. Next year this restriction carries over to all Japanese savings deposits. There is a lot of Yen to steal when the banks collapse.

There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide for many Japanese. Many Japanese are making the decision to get hard assets like Gold and Platinum rather than take their chances on a failed government and a failing banking sector. As more Japanese end up on the growing "Bone Pile" and the Yen becomes worthless they simply do not want to end up as those poor people in Argentina who were lied to and screwed by their government. People in Japan still have fresh in their memories news reports of survivors of the Kobe earthquake digging through their ruined homes and pulling out Gold bullion that survived while their currency and possessions burned in the resulting fires. The growing crisis in Japan's insolvent banking sector and crumbling currency are fanning the flames of a different fire that threatens to consume the wealth of most Japanese. Therefore it is a foregone conclusion that the "Japanese Gold Rush" will continue for quite some time to come.

- Black Blade
Mr Gresham
Singlion post
Hard to locate there, so it was 19:05 on April 9.

Seems a restatement of FOA, in another voice and style. A younger speaker, different grammar, but neither adding nor detracting from the FOA we know. A good paraphrase. Didn't really carve into any new depth, or much of an update since we last heard from him. Didn't seem to be entirely claiming to be him, but close; so what...

Almost as if one of us had read the entire Trail and taken excellent notes; then tried to write it into a summary document for an audience somewhere between the average investor and average Gbug.

I welcome anyone keeping these ideas before us, and I especially welcome anyone delving into the views of those who move these markets with or without us, as those like miner49er, Belgian, and many others do here and elsewhere.

I think we should welcome the cross-fertilization of ideas from ALL forums. We are in for quite a ride ahead, and our joys should be boundless...
YGM
BIS Paper, (India) Evolving Role of Gold, Trends & Future. (Reddy) Mar 21/02
http://www.bis.org/review/r020326c.pdfLink to further BIS Gold related papers next....YGM.
YGM
BIS Search Link to Gold
Cavan Man
singlion
I believe he is from Singapore and I have a guess as to who he might be. He is a long time commentator on the posts of FOA/A at GE. I think he is wise beyond his years.
Black Blade
N.Y. probe of Wall St. banks expands
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B840C7F40%2DAD12%2D4578%2D9C77%2DAE5AE2238E99%7D&siteid=mktw
Goldman, Lehman, Salomon, Morgan reportedly named

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Prosecutors have widened their investigation into the alleged conflict of interests of Wall Street analysts to include at least eight investment banks, the state attorney general's office said Wednesday. Juanita Scarlett, a spokeswoman for Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, wouldn't confirm the names of those firms or how many have been subpoenaed, but said that they comprised all the major investment banks.

Black Blade: This could be interesting though I suspect that ultimately nothing will come of it. These people have their politicians and bureaucrats bought and paid for. Just a shell game.

Black Blade
EXPOSING THE SHELL GAME ON WALL STREET By JOHN CRUDELE
http://www.nypost.com/business/41267.htm
Snippit:

April 9, 2002 -- IT'S getting harder for Wall Street to hide the pea. Just a week ago the investment community had this little shell game going: the economy was not only improving, but it was improving rapidly. Find the evidence to prove us wrong. Then came rapid fire bad news from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday and IBM yesterday, and suddenly it's a lot harder for Wall Street to flim flam investors.

But the guys moving the shells around on Wall Street aren't satisfied with just improvement. They want you to believe not only that there has been improvement but that the economy had gotten so good that the recession barely happened. In fact, the there-was-no-recession crowd was getting more vocal these past few weeks.

This idealized view of the economy fit the needs of both Washington and Wall Street.

Washington got to ease fears that the slow economy couldn't handle the sudden surge in the nation's debt. And on Wall Street, the peddlers of stocks could finally make a credible case that the very overpriced market really wasn't such a bad deal after all.

The second shell that was being shuffled had to do with corporate profits.



Black Blade: I think that it must be easy to flim flam American investors. Americans are quite a gullible lot. Then again, trading volumes on the Wall Street exchanges have fallen off a cliff. Guess what's under the Third Shell. Hmmm�
Black Blade
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmNews in Oil

Snippit:

Events in the Middle East today are proving once again how fragile peace is and how vulnerable Western economies are to fluctuating oil prices. Technological advances in energy may be in the works, but for the majority of world economies, they are still powered and run by oil. Nothing is done in our economy that doesn't require energy to produce it. If there is an energy shortage or disruption in the flow of oil to any western economy, that economy will suffer. The failure of the Democratic Senate to pass an energy bill makes the US economy much more vulnerable to an energy supply shock. The price of oil has jumped over $7 over the past three weeks with about $5 out of the $7 accounted for as a Middle East risk premium. If the Arab world decides to use the oil weapon, western economies in Europe, Japan, and Asia, as well as the U.S., would greatly be affected. The problem at the moment is that politics once again is dominating the oil markets. In the Middle East and Venezuela, OPEC's fourth largest exporter is beset by strikes, oil production could be sharply curtailed. Throw in an unusual weather pattern forming with El Ni--o, and demand for energy could soar. As pointed out in Hubberts Peak, weather has proven to be the deciding factor when determining demand for energy.

Black Blade: The situation for energy could become critical not so much due to oil imports (though that could certainly happen), rather it is the whole energy picture. Natural gas is not imported to any significant degree, and yet exploration and production is falling off fast due to relatively low prices and a perceived temporary supply overhang. This will come back to bite us this coming fall through winter. This summer we are likely to experience much warmer weather due to El Ni--o effects if the NOAA projections are correct. Many nuclear power plants may be shutdown this year for NRC mandated inspections and possible repairs. Some coal power plants will likely be restricted in output as all available "carbon credits" are spoken for. Also the attrition of older power plants being shutdown and the building of new NG-fired power plants could create another round of "energy crises" this next year. When we get a reprieve to remedy a crisis situation we just blow it off - we just never learn. Scratch one economic recovery.
silvester
On Singlion & a question

Even if he has taken good notes like many of us, it is good hear again. I think we're on right trail.

Many belive our currency timeline will end with hyper-inflation. Just how does hyper-inflation end?
Black Blade
Loophole inflates earnings
http://www.usatoday.com/money/finance/2002-04-08-option-costs.htm
Effects of stock option costs

Snippit:

How earnings of the S&P 500's largest companies would drop if companies included stock-option costs in earnings An accounting loophole that lets companies leave the cost of stock options off their books, now under fire in Congress, gave earnings last year an even bigger lift than before.

Earnings would have been 10% lower last fiscal year at the 50 largest companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 that have filed year-end results had they counted options as an expense, according to a USA TODAY analysis. That's even greater than the 6% hit the same companies would have suffered during fiscal 2000.

What's more, under the loophole these same companies cut their tax bills by an estimated $10.1 billion in 2001 by deducting the costs of options, as is allowed by current rules.


Black Blade: Just one of the tricks of the accounting scandal trade that we have been watching for some months now. But truthfully, I seriously doubt that we will see any meaningful laws to fight this abuse of the shareholder who are the companies "true owners".

miner49er
Yufu - Blade, All -- this is CLASSIC!
http://www.time.com/time/asia/features/changed_japan/yufu.htmlGreat catch!! I read the blip about yufu, did a google on it, and found this gem of an article... A must read for the understanding of currency, and exchange...!

------ Some snips: (but read the whole thing...)

Recession-ravaged residents of this tiny hot-springs town found a way to improve their standard of living. Stuck with low-paying and seasonal tourism-related jobs, Yufuin's citizens solved a chronic yen-flow problem by boosting the local monetary supply: they print their own currency.

In Yufuin you can get a taxi ride, buy a bottle of sake, eat lunch, book a train ticket and supplement your wardrobe using a self-generated scrip the townspeople call yufu. "The yen isn't very stable anyway, is it?" says Ryuji Urata, a 38-year-old liquor-store owner who came up with the scheme two years ago. "So instead of being subject to what the national government does, we have our own strong currency."

[ ... ]

Still, the scrip has value BECAUSE VILLAGERS AGREE THAT IT DOES.

The system is a form of barter.

[ ... ]

Barter allows villagers with little cash to trade labor for life's small necessities. When resident Tetsuro Yamamoto came down with a serious illness and had to be hospitalized last year, the group lavished yufu on him, which he used to pay part-time workers to assist his wife at their restaurant. "The government doesn't give me that kind of help," he says. "Yufu saved my life."

[ and now the real beauties... ]

Says Eisuke Sakakibara, the former Vice Finance Minister known as "Mr. Yen": "There's no deep implication to this. [ ... ] In the end I think people want real money."

Sometimes, though, the pretend money will do just fine. "It's all based on trust and credibility," says Mutsumi Nagai, a Yufuin restaurant owner...

Of course, basing financial transactions on trust instead of the national currency involves certain risks.

If villagers can individually mint hundreds or even thousands of yufu, what's to prevent hyperinflation, with the locals carting wheelbarrows of Monopoly money to the neighborhood izakaya (bar)?

[ ... and finally ... ]

Checks and balances exist. Every yufu user is required to sign the notes they issue.

Ultimately they will be called upon to redeem those notes by performing a service for the bearer. The specter of weeks spent washing other people's clothes after a yufu spending spree at the sake shop EFFECTIVELY LIMITS THE MONEY SUPPLY.

The moral: being your own central bank isn't so much fun when the yufu stops here.

------ End snips

No need for any comments (phew, I can hear them say...). Let me only add a personal anecdote that I think dovetails with this in pointing out what is almost an innate sense we have, of how to do it, when it comes to "money."

Some time ago, my children were playing Lego. They had industriously built quite an extensive society of homes, and tree-lined avenues with all sorts of enterprises along the thoroughfare (...use your imagination, you were all kids once, too).

They were using a particular type of Lego block for "money." (Actually, they were some type of Lego-look alike, and frankly, an ugly sort of beige...) I watched them for awhile, and then asked my nine-year old, who was busy building a ship or something, why he didn't use these white pieces (as they seemed much more numerous...)

Without looking up, or stopping his work, he just said in his characteristic, matter-of-fact way, "'Cause that wouldn't be any fun." "Why not?" I asked. Still without looking up, or breaking concentration, he replied, "'Cause there's too many of them..."

(Out of the mouths of babes...)

Black Blade
Japanese money supply growth accelerates
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3TK7YNUZC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=ZZZR4COD20C⊂heading=asia%20pacific%20equities

Snippit:

Japan's March money supply grew at its fastest pace in two years, figures released by the central bank showed on Wednesday, but the increase was attributed primarily to investor jitters, prompted by the relative instability of Japan's debt-laden banks.

The news comes as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day policy meeting, where it is likely to leave monetary policy unchanged, despite evidence that the Japan's recovery from its recession will be relatively flat. Data released on Wednesday showed that lending by Japanese banks fell 4.5 per cent in March, year-on-year, reflecting nearly a full year of decline.

The money supply data showed that Japanese investors preferred to hold more liquid assets such as cash. In addition, the end to Japan's guarantees on bank deposits on March 31 caused investors to pull their assets out of banks and instead hoard cash or buy gold.


Black Blade: Yep, as I already stated.
R Powell
Silver news
http://library.northernlight.com/FC20020410850000043.html?cb=0&dx=1006≻=0&doc If I managed to copy the link correctly it will lead to a good article. There's nothing earth shattering but its a confirmation of what many of us have been thinking. There's an estimate of available supply at 500 million ounces with yearly demand approaching 900 million and, of course, the ongoing yearly deficit. 2002 will be the 13th in a row. Mention is made that much of that 500 million guesstimate is not for sale at the current low price. The U.S. government alone once held billions of ounces so it stands to reason that the last remaining silver stashes will not be sold cheaply. Myself, my coins are simply not for sale (how much am I bid?) The 2002 silver survey is not yet available but word has leaked out that CPM has revised its 2001 deficit number downward to 80-90 million ounces. This, I believe, is also a guess but probably the best one available. It would not surprise me to see 2001 useage down as industrial use was probably down with the economic slowdown. Hope I got the link right. I tried to copy and paste but it did not work. Does transfering links this way require some trick I'm not aware of??
Funny that the U.S. markets used to lower PM prices coming out of Europe and now the buyers seem to be here rather than in London. What up?
Rich
Black Blade
Strike touches off violence in Venezuela
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1356205
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Venezuela's government and its opposition engaged in an escalating game of brinksmanship today that jeopardized the country's oil exports and triggered scattered street violence in several cities.

A 48-hour strike appeared to be losing steam today, but oil officials acknowledged for the first time that a slowdown at Petroleos de Venezuela was creating supply problems. The conflict erupted after Chavez angered longtime employees by naming new management at PDVSA, one of the world's largest oil companies. Venezuela said it had released buyers and sellers from completing contracts with PDVSA, citing disruptions in supplies. "Shipments will be delayed and the situation obviously is not normal," PDVSA Vice President and board member Jorge Kamkoff said.

Combined with Iraq's suspension of oil exports to Israel's allies, Venezuela's oil troubles stirred concern abroad. Major refineries in the world's No. 4 oil producer are running below capacity, and tankers are lined up at ports.

In Washington, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said the Bush administration was closely watching events. "Various people in the administration are obviously monitoring both of these things (Iraq and Venezuela), and we're keeping in touch with each other," he said.

An army general -- the fifth officer in recent months -- accused Chavez of politicizing the armed forces and lying to Venezuelans about the presence of Colombian guerrillas along Venezuela's western frontier. "Mr. President, you have betrayed the country," Brig. Gen. Nestor Gonzalez Gonzalez told a news conference. "Respect the national armed forces."



Black Blade: It appears that the situation in Venezuela is deteriorating. El Presidente is losing support among his top brass while rebels (actually bandits) from Colombia mass on the western border. Meanwhile US oil supply is in jeopardy.
R Powell
Happiness
Is a link that works. Thanks to AlterEgo next door which is where I found it.
Miner49, great work. My first reaction was that the government would try to surpress this on the grounds that its counter-fiat and the IRS would be there to collect tufu taxes on all taxable transactions. I used to live in the Berkshire hills of Western MA. There was a steady subculture of barter type business among the working folk of the hilltowns outside the cities. Problem was that everyone was poor so while you can survive, no matter what you did real financial advances were very seldom seen.
However, it was a much less stressful manner of living. In seven years there, we never locked the back door to the house. Good thing to, I never had a key.
We also had a true artisian well. We supplied many neighbors during the dry season when hand dug wells often went dry. For this we never charged but we recieved favors instead, like free babysitting from those wanting to take a shower (running water!) Nothing was taxed. Money was not only not exchanged but often not thought of. Funny how memories become selective over time. There were some tough times and tough people there as well.
YGM
Media, Analysts, PM Funds Promoters, Hedge Adjustments, Other ass'rtd Factors..
Must seem like a bad dream to Cabal & all w/ interest in Gold suppression.. You know the mainstream media covers where the best action is and chases it's own tail (near plagurism of the other guys commentary) so to my way of thinking those with a vested interest in suppression of Gold and Silver prices must be worried like never before. The hyperbole surrounding Gold, crooked accounting, economies, banks and public co's nearly under water is escalating more rapidly almost daily. Then add GATA to the list and the new interest being given to it in press. (ie:Europe,Russia) Soon all these factors and probably some as yet unforseen ones added to the mix will push the negative hype to the point of no return. We have truly entered a new dimension of public knowledge and interest with respect to Gold and PM stocks, compared to that which we've suffered thru for many years......About time! Now the wait becomes much easier for many.....Greenspan must feel akin to the Capt.of the Exxon Valdez waking from a drunken sleep....YGM
R Powell
Silvester
"just how does hyper-inflation end?"

About a month or so ago I read a good account of the exactly such a situation. It's titled "When Money Dies" by Adam Ferguson. It was hard to get a copy as it's out of print.
It recounts the hyper devaluation of the mark in early 1920s Germany after WW1. I found it fascinating and a little scary. Think of having to spend your daily pay on your way home from work while it still could but something. Think of the government adding zeros on the bills' denominations and even then having the bills basically worthless by the time the printer delivered them. Imagine the government totally broke as the cost of collecting taxes is inflating faster than the value of what is collected. Fixed income people sometimes starved and farmers sometimes paid off mortgages with the partial profit from one year's crop. There was a total civil breakdown, the perfect environment for a new strong fascist dictator. Scary, no!
And yes, gold and silver saved many lives!!!!
Rich
DOWNUNDER
goldfool--msg 73092 --Current violence in the ME not going to abate until Saddam is removed from power.
I've read your post several times & am sure that you are coming at this subject from a biased hard line Jewish perspective. This is not the forum to promote that line.

What about the hundreds of innocent Palestinian men, women & children that are killed? Their refugee camps & homes are being trashed & their survival infrastructure is being demolished --on a daily basis. If YOUR family were being treated like this what would YOU do? (Its rhetorical-please don't respond)

A goodly part of this whole problem HAS to be laid at the feet of the Israeli Govts --past & present because of their lack of common sense! They have continually let religious fanatical zealots build settlements on Palestinian land. They
Have continuously bulldozed homes & buildings & paid NO compensation.

As far as I'm concerned --good on Saddam!
timbervision
miner49er
Hi miner49er, thanks a bullion for the great response. I read it this morning but didn't have a chance to respond until now. Given today's nice action in mining stocks compared to the smaller relative spike in gold it would seem that the market has not yet appreciated the pending disconnect. Do you envisage the US dollar's slide from its present state of "stability and predictability" to be a cataclysmic one and would there be any identifiable warning signs? Or are we already seeing them? I can believe that the Goldman Sachs report yesterday that gold will top out at 300 for the next year and a half may be one such sign.

Thanks
timbervision
ax
P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )


STOCK DATE EXCHANGE P/E DIVIDEND % YIELD

1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE 22.22 3.5


2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE 98.83 1.2


3. Gold Fields 4-10-02 JSE 44.25 1.18


4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE 33.78 1.16

5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .40


6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .80


ax
P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and
dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )
STOCK DATE EXCHANGE P/E DIVIDEND % YIELD
1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE 22.22 3.5
2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE 98.83 1.2
3. Gold Fields 4-10-02 JSE 44.25 1.18
4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE 33.78 1.16
5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .40
6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .80

ax
P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and
dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )

STOCK DATE EXCHANGE P/E DIVIDEND % YIELD

1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE- P/E 22.22 DIV 3.5

2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE- P/E 98.83 DIV 1.2

3. Gold Fields 4-10-02JSE- P/E 44.25 DIV 1.18

4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE- P/E 33.78 DIV 1.16

5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE-P/E Earn Loss DIV .40

6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE-P/E Earn Loss DIV .80
The CoinGuy
Spitzer on the Prowl...New York Probe of Wall Street Banks expands.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={840C7F40-AD12-4578-9C77-AE5AE2238E99}&siteid=mktwI'm not holding my breath, but it's a start.

N.Y. probe of Wall St. banks expands
Goldman, Lehman, Salomon, Morgan reportedly named

By Allen Wan, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:34 PM ET April 10, 2002

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Prosecutors have widened their investigation into the alleged conflict of interests of Wall Street analysts to include at least eight investment banks, the state attorney general's office said Wednesday.

Juanita Scarlett, a spokeswoman for Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, wouldn't confirm the names of those firms or how many have been subpoenaed, but said that they comprised all the major investment banks.

The Financial Times named Morgan Stanley (MWD: news, chart, profile) and Credit Suisse First Boston, a unit of the Credit Suisse Group (CSR: news, chart, profile), as targets of the investigation over their research practices. Goldman Sachs (GS: news, chart, profile), Lehman Bros. (LEH: news, chart, profile), UBS Paine Webber (UBS: news, chart, profile) and Salomon Smith Barney were also on the list, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Some of these banks have received subpoenas, while other will get them shortly, the Journal said, citing people close to the inquiry.

(the rest of the article is at the link above)

Black Blade: Read in IBD yesterday about a major refinery in St. Criox, VI closing down putting pressure on gasoline prices here in the U.S. They didn't mention how long the refinery would be closed, or the reasons for the closure. Heard anything?

The CoinGuy
Black Blade
Venezuela strike is extended
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1922000/1922289.stm
Chavez accuses the strikers of trying to overthrow him

Snippit:

Venezuela's largest labour and business confederations have announced that they will continue a 48-hour general strike indefinitely. "We have agreed on an indefinite general strike," union leader Carlos Ortega said at the end of the two-day stoppage, which was called in support of workers and managers of the state-owned oil company PDVSA. The strike was called by the million-strong main union confederation

Venezuela is the world's fourth largest oil exporter and on Wednesday a senior PDVSA official acknowledged for the first time that its exports had been affected. The strike could also cause more nervousness in the global oil market following Iraq's decision to suspend oil exports for 30 days.


Black Blade: Extended indefinitely. That combined with the Iraqi embargo and OPEC production cuts will likely rattle the Petroleum markets.
Sierra Madre
Miner49er...fascinating post about the "Yufu" in Japan....

There is more than meets the eye to this Yufu scheme. It's not so crazy, I think.

I think one can discover a certain relationship between the Yufu and the origin of banknotes.

The Scots developed a very fine system of banking, and it produced banknotes which did not work as today. They were redeemable in gold, at sight. The system survived until swallowed up by the Bank of England, probably by force. (I am not well-versed in the precise facts of that story.)

The banks of the time, would discount Bills. Bills were what we would call invoices for the delivery of goods. Discountable bills were those drawn on ("invoices payable by") reputable merchants for goods produced and delivered to them, such goods to be sold in a term of not over 90 days, and bearing two good signatures: the signature of the seller and that of the buyer. Both were liable for prompt payment of the discounted note and if not paid within 24 hours of due date, action for collection resulted in the immediate bankruptcy of either or both the signers of the Bill.

The holder of a Bill who discounted it, might get either gold or Notes in exchange. The notes were redeemable at sight, so the bankers were careful always to maintain a sufficient supply of gold for redemptions.

Thus the volume of Notes in circulation was regulated by the volume of real, bonfide commerce in goods to be sold in 90 days. Not inflationary!

This was a excellent system and since the consequences of abuse were so drastic, both bankers and merchants were extremely cautious in their dealings - as they should be. The result was prosperous commerce and sound money, together.

Much more has been written on this honest use of paper money by Antal E. Fekete. Not ALL paper money has been dishonest!

I see some connection between the "Yufu" and this system, now defunct - for the shame of mankind.

A Bill for goods to be sold and paid for in 90 days, is the next best thing to gold, and as Fekete has said, such Bills would circulate under their own intrinsic worth, with or without banks. Thus the banks became a facilitating factor, substituting for the individual Bill, a Note which was a proxy or, yes - a derivative! - of the Bill.

I hope the "Yufu" works for the people of that town in Japan. It just might, if not abused. Good for them!

One of these days, some commercial banker somewhere may remember what the original function of commercial banking was, and begin to discount Bills again, rather than financing cars which are going to be paid in 5 YEARS and credit card consumer finance, where the asset financed goes down the throat of the consumer.

I understand Larry Parks of "FAME" is going to publish Fekete�s forthcoming book.

Sierra
Black Blade
Coin Guy - Refinery Outage

I am unaware of this particular refinery problem. However, I might add that Venezuelan refineries supply US gasoline since we cannot refine enough for ourselves due to a severe lack of refining capacity. Now with the strike we could see crude inventories dwindle, gasoline prices spike, and gasoline shortages in selected markets (probably on the east coast).
Rockgrabber
USA Gold, Good promo idea for you
You should have shirts made up that read "GOT GOLD?". Then have your usagold.com. You can give them out to clients, or sell them, I would buy a few. What fun that would be to wear out. I can even picture the sinking feelings in folks gut just reading that out in public. hehehehe.
The CoinGuy
BB: did a little research...
CHRISTIANSTED, U.S. Virgin Islands (AP) -- An explosion on Tuesday rocked Hovensa, the hemisphere's largest oil refinery, seriously burning at least one person and forcing a halt in operations.

about all I could find,

The CoinGuy
ski
Move over PM bugs ... others are on the way.
.. the link does not want to work

Like it or not, it looks as though mainstream investors are on the way into the PM sector according to my interpretation of this recent AP news item.

From the recent story: "RYDEX offers an new SECTOR ROTATION FUND. The premise of sector rotation ... and the fund .. is to put money into segments of the market believed to be hot, and get out of those that appear to be fizzlng. Each month the fund manager will calculate the precious 12-month price appreciation for the 59 sectors that make up the S&P 1,500 index. He will then identify the 10 sectors that have had the biggest gains and buy stocks within those areas. ..... There are presently 14,000 U.S. stock funds."

Ski .... Here they come. I can't possibly see how this fund manager can avoid buying PM stocks due to their spectacular performance over the last year or so. This new fund just opened for business at the end of March. They can't have a whole lot of investment money at this point .... but all major trend changes have similar humble beginnings.
Belgian
Underground gold Hedging....
Any miner saying (pretending) that he is/will "running down (close) the hedge book"...suggests 2 different operations possible :

1/ The existing gold deliveries are done on expiry dates and the hedge contract is not renewed.

2/ Mobilize cash > buy Physical in spotmarket > deliver at hedge expiry date > keep/mine, the underground reserves with rising prices or constructing a floor (POG-Bottom) !?

AU hedges (+/-500 tonnes) go under at POG > 308$ ! Pretty close h� boys and girls ! ABX hedges at 345$ with even more tonnes ! Imagine that total of 3.000 tonnes that should start panicking ? Mamma Mia.

Theoretically, AU could sink ABX if the market-conditions should allow it (AU) to do so ( not a suggestion for actually doing it - bad boy ! ). Ohhhh, let them (AU/ABX) play and run these terrible risks. *WE* The Physical Holders-Advocates haven't hedged and paid already for what we have/possess.
Where I'm convinced MK doesn't sell on credit or yufus (smile Sir).
Black Blade
Evolving Role of Gold - BIS
http://www.bis.org/review/r020326c.pdf
This is a 7 page pdf file.
Black Blade
Gold tea set stolen from SA's parliament
http://www.africaonline.com/site/Articles/1,3,46929.jsp
Snippit:

South Africa's rampant crime rate continues with a report that a solid gold tea set worth millions has been stolen from the Presidential offices at Tuynhuys in the country's parliamentary capital.

CAPE TOWN: The missing items, a teapot, milk jug, sugar bowl, and tray with ivory handles, had been a gift to the South African government from the British royal family in 1952. It's value is reckoned by in the region of R3 million, and authorities fear that the thief will melt it down in order to sell the metal. The thief had taken the set out of its case, which had been left in a safe.

The South African parliamentary complex has been plagued by theft for years. Among other items, the historic five-carat Mendelssohn diamond was stolen from its display cabinet in the parliamentary library in mid-1999. An employee was subsequently arrested and the diamond recovered.


Black Blade: Some one went through a lot of trouble over a barbarous relic.
Black Blade
Gold price revives as AngloGold reduces hedging
http://afr.com/marketwrap/commodities/2002/04/11/FFXUPOGIVZC.html
Snippit:

South African gold giant AngloGold said overnight it is aggressively running down its hedge book due to current market conditions and prices, causing an upward surge in the gold price back above $US300 an ounce.

Financial director Jonathan Best told journalists in South Africa that while the company has not changed its hedging policy per se, it had cut back its hedge position substantially during the March quarter. He said AngloGold is taking out weaker positions in its hedge book so that going forward it does not have a period where it is receiving lower prices or incurring an opportunity loss.

Black Blade: When AngloGold and Newmont-Nevada Franco were on a bidding war for Normandy I had mentioned this as a possibility. AngloGold is desperate and their hedges are about to drag them under. They had no choice but to either acquire other companies to feed their hedge book (difficult now that NEM stuck it to them), or to drastically unwind their hedge book. Even so, they are in a difficult situation. Either unwind the hedge book driving prices higher and face risk margin requirements, or desperately look for other takeover targets with dwindling funds to feed the voracious hedge book.
Usul
Market report
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=549263∈_review_text_id=515535"... traders in London failed to join the party mood. They said they did not trust Wall Street's sudden burst of euphoria and were not going to be lured into chasing share prices higher..."

Perhaps Enron, Arthur Andersen, New York's attorney general's investigation into alleged conflicts of interest by Wall Street analysts, "pro-forma" results, the so-called "Greenspan Put," "seasonal adjustments", "hedonic price deflators" etcetera is weighing on their minds?
Black Blade
Yen Snaps Rally as Japan Raises Warning
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020411/markets_forex_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The yen retreated from recent three-week highs against the dollar and euro on Thursday after Japan indicated its concern over the currency's export-crimping strength.

Senior Japanese Finance Ministry official Zembei Mizoguchi warned he was watching foreign exchange moves closely, noting the yen's strength was not justified by current economic conditions. His comments came just a day after Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa cautioned that an excessive rise in the yen would be a problem.

``Japan still sees a weak currency as a tool in the pro- growth, anti-deflation battle and is not keen for the yen to strengthen just yet,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS Warburg.


Black Blade: A weak Yen policy looks like a clear signal for more Japanese Gold buying. Shades of Argentina? Hmmm�
miner49er
Sierra Madre @ 73132 - Yufus, Scot's redeemable notes, etc...
Yes Sir! You are correct. I don't think the idea, and what these folks in Japan are practicing with the Yufu is crazy at all... (My annotations about "peals of laughter," etc. had to do with the stuffed-man, automoton responses of the establishment.)

I think there is a wealth to be learned simply by meditating on the prospects, and consequences of this endeavor. It would be a great case study to watch how things unfold here over the next 12-18 mos. Who will try to take advantage of the system? Will the government stop it, or subsume it? Will they try to evolve it to handle more complex operations? Or will they prudently recognize certain limits?

Good supplementary info about the Scots, too. It is a good point where you say, "Not ALL paper money has been dishonest!" Indeed, it is just another medium. If it evolves of its own, as the commerce requirements of a culture naturally demand it, for the purpose of "facilitating exchange," (i.e., make it easier to do what they need to do, anyway...), good on 'em...

The downside is introduced when mankind, as it is prone, ends up somehow abusing, and finally trashing it. Maybe sort of like re-phrasing the saying: "Paper doesn't kill systems, people kill systems."

Best regards,
miner
Cavan Man
Has Wolfowitz gone mad?
White House backs strong defense of Taiwan
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


The Bush administration will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan from military strikes by China, according to a recent closed-door speech by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz that drew an angry response from China yesterday.

"As President Bush and others have said, the United States is committed to doing whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself," Mr. Wolfowitz said March 11 in Florida at a meeting of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, an industry group.

We're fighting the WAT, a Vietnam style conflict in Afghanistan, we've told Iraq we're coming and declared against Iran and North Korea. Is anybody writing their Congressman?

LeSin
Bush Reckless Language - Threats - Only serve to De-Stabalize - Go Gold
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020411-31348917.htm
April 11, 2002


White House backs strong defense of Taiwan
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

���� The Bush administration will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan from military strikes by China, according to a recent closed-door speech by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz that drew an angry response from China yesterday.

���� "As President Bush and others have said, the United States is committed to doing whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself," Mr. Wolfowitz said March 11 in Florida at a meeting of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, an

Snip: -----------------------------------------------------

"What ever it takes" sounds like sport shoe add.

Bush,His Gov & Team's choice of reckless, cowboy, punk unsportsman like language is certainly doing USA foriegn policy irreperable harm. Does he think he is living in a John Wayne western movie, re; Bin Laden, 'we're gonna smoke um out, we're gunna roundum up' Hello! Send this wannnbe Cowboy home to the Rio Grande to chase wet backs.

Please excuse me, however Bush and his team parading around the world with tough talk, reckless language, veiled
and unveiled threats of war and the use of nukes and disinfranchising allies is scary to say the least. Bush and his team daily remind me of Nazi Germany after all Hitler only wanted Europe, Russia, Poland, North Africa, UK and the bits in between. National Security and identification of individuals and ethnic groups in the nation was paramount. Loss of civil liberties in exchange of national security was undertaken and achieved. Daily I am less worried about Saddam Hussain and more fearful of Bush & USA.
I was born and spent my first 30 years there in good old USA. After all what country was not afraid to use weapons of mass destruction on civilians and still threatening so?
Nappon (spelling) gas fire balls on civilians in Viet Nam?

You boys in the USA better send your boss a message that he understands: The World is not his Texas ranch and his red-neck pick-up truck image is wearing thin. As a matter fact
"down-right-embarrassing" Thar you go- put that in your peace pipe- dubya

Having now completed my tirade/rant- All of this sadly will
be simply wonderful for physical gold holders- Go get somemore cowboys and cowgirls. "S"

"S"

LeSin
Repeat of Article
Cavan Man
Sorry I must have been venting while you posted the same article. Like your views and contributions to this site.
While I am here, I too like Singlion views and contributions
when I lurk at GE forum. I have a few times past copied some of his statements here.

Cheers and good night from the wonderful land of OZ Down Under "S"



LeSin
Now Yemen Too - George Get that Little Yemen They Surely are Terrrorist Too
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=4/11/02&Cat=4Νm=008Tehran Times [April 11] snippet:
SANAA - Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has urged countries neighboring Israel to let Yemeni troops in to fight alongside the Palestinians. "If our brothers in the countries (bordering Israel) allow it, we are prepared to send our sons and our youth to fight alongside our brothers in Palestine,....."

"The next battle will be decisive when the borders are open before the Mujahedin and the Arab fighter to support their Palestinian brethren," Saleh said, quoted by the official Saba news agency. Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria all border Israel and the Palestinian territories. Yemen was "determined to support President Yasser Arafat and the heroic Palestinian people by sending funds and (military) equipment because the war is not yet over......"
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=4/11/02&Cat=4Νm=008

-------------------------------------------------------------
Good night for sure - "S"

Usul
Manipulation?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17315549&s=rubinDid the US Treasury move government pension fund money into stocks?
YGM
BB...You missed the rest.....
http://search.atomz.com/search/?sp-a=sp09132b00&sp-q=Gold&Search.x=21&Search.y=18All BIS Gold commentary since 96...Quite interesting to look back upon. Time consuming tho...YGM.
Siochain
@Cavan Man
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz is one of the hawks I've mentioned in the past who really scares me...."right" from the beginning of Bush's term he has been out front in wanting to take down Iraq ...no matter what...among other countries.

You may recall that Time ran a cover plus an extensive article on 9/10 ...day before WTC ...asking about Colin Powell...missing in action...and power.

The gist was that Powell was being pushed aside in favor of some extreme right wing hawks and chief among whom was Wolfowitz ... one of Powell's chief adversary.

Wolfowitz appears to have a lot of influence...and IMO rigid one way thinking.

Stock Note;;;Isn't it nice to see M/L drop 5% ...and JPM 3% so far today...couldn't happen to a ..uh...more manipulative group!
YGM
ME Peace? ............. Not if "MadMan Insane" can help it!
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=27166Just another thorn in the Gold Manipulators butts.....
Pretty sad that we have to look to a world in chaos to see reality come about in the financial world......YGM
YGM
A Preview of " Future News ".....
@ WND......"Could GOLD hit $1,000 an ounce?" It may not be a news story yet and only a commentary for advertising now, BUT it sure must be catching alot of folks attention just the same. It has my vote for best (semi) news caption to hit the cyber media sites yet.......YGM

Go Gold, Go GATA & "GO PHYSICAL"
Siochain
@ Black Blade
Your articles and commentaries on oil and natural gas have been quiye helpful.

I was wondering if you have an opinion of energy options for the future (both for individuals and for the Country)....and which looks most likely/possible....from natural gas to coal to solar power to?????
TIA
USAGOLD
Bundesbank to Dump Dollars Central Bank Policy May Drive Currency to Depths of Hell
http://www.iii.co.uk/uknews/?articleid=4327046∾tion=article
(USAGN, 4/11/02) Bundesbank vice president Juergen Stark announced today that the central bank would continue its policy of dumping dollars. Simultaneously, the bank official reiterated the German central bank's position that it would not be selling gold over the next two to three years, delivering a blow to dollar holders internationally, and inspiring gold investors to add to their holdings.

Stark also said that even if the Bundesbank sold gold after 2004, it would only be in small amounts to prop up the German stock market through the purchase of index options. He also said that the dollar sales were not because of any grudge it might hold against the dollar or dollar holders, or the result of "any kind of hidden currency intervention" but "with the high dollar and low euro last year it seemed right to sell that amount."

Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke said that proceeds from the sale of gold will be used to purchase stock indice options like the Stoxx 50, rather than individual stocks. Governments more and more are moving toward a policy of manipulating recalcitrant stock markets which might collapse otherwise and leave the nation's citizenry with little or nothing in their retirement plans.

Companies included in the Stoxx 50 immediately released statements that they do not think the government is playing favorites, but doing what is best for the country. The rest of Germany's businesses were left in a quandary over just how the government might help boost their stock values. "There's more to Germany than 50 companies," one company representative told USAGOLD News, "We're going to start a new Index Fund for Stark and Welteke to invest in." Both Stark and Welteke refused to comment on suggestions by reporters that they start a hedge fund so that they can play both sides of the market.

The policy of central bank dollar sales has been instigated by officials wanting to get a better return on their reserves and could encourage widespread dumping by the world's central banks, said one London gold trader. Neither the U.S. Treasury Department nor the World Gold Council were available for comment. Stark explained that "ever since 2000 it has been following a policy of continually reducing its dollar positions over the market."

Welteke said that he believes the agreement the sale of gold by central banks would be renewed in 2004 and he just wanted to make sure that the Swiss or the Brits didn't push the German bank to the back of the line. "After all," he said, "fair is fair. They got to sell gold the last time and nobody even let us sell a single ounce." Welteke stunned the financial world recently when he said he wanted to sell the German people's gold to buy his favorite stocks -- none of which (of course) were in his or his family's portfolio.

USAGOLD News will be following this story with much interest in the weeks and months ahead.

CoBra(too)
@ USAGOLD
Hello MK,

You sure beat me to that story. The difference of opinion between J�rgen Stark and Ernst Wetelke is indeed stark to pathetic.

Austria in the meantime just had its own pathetic little (un-)popular referendum, which only achieved 700K votes. Incidentally it was the socialist plan to amend the constitution to underwrite a total wellfare plan. Not to different from Wetelke's plan to use the proceeds of gold sales to prop the SM's in order to save retirement funds.

This is the ultimate recommendation to privately hold gold -or the capitulation of fiat and financial assets. Also see IBM and GE - the real Bell-weather's of the SM's are sinking -fast.

Got your golden raft? - cb2


Cavan Man
USAGOLD73154
A "coming out"?Trail marker
Cavan Man
@CB (too)
Agree. When officialdom publicly acknowledges the need to support financial assets by whatever means it is time for GOLD!

Thanks Mr. Stark for the testimonial. I know you completely understand the method to you madness (or do you?)
YGM
Commentary......
From another Gold Site......5 % = 25,000 T of AU!!!

With equivalent of $5 trillion dollars (US) of public savings held in a potentially insolvent Japanese banking system, earning near zero interest, denominated in a depreciating Japanese currency, the Japanese are seeking safer 'alternatives'. And that appears to be gold!

With government bank savings guarantee being scaled back to $75,208 per saver, the Japanese are removing cash from bank savings accounts like mad and buying physical gold. Who can blame them?

This currently accounts for only a trickle of total world gold buying so far. But, the Japanese have watched gold appreciate 40% in Yen terms in just over a year and now the investment volumes are rising.

Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal.

Japanese households bought Y24bn (US$180m) of gold in February, according to JP Morgan, and gold imports increased more than seven times from February 2001 to almost 20,000kg.

"It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist at JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investments can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

A 5% Japanese public savings allocation to gold, which is being mentioned in Japanese investment circles as prudent and conservative, would translate into 25,000 tonnes of demand. If the Japanese investors alone were to create a wave of gold buying, they could nearly empty every central bank in the world of their gold holdings.

While we're not predicting that to happen, it's important to realize that there's already a short-fall between current gold demand and newly mined gold. Now that the Bank of England has ended all gold sales, the question becomes one of "Where will the fresh supply of physical gold come from to meet the already high demand?"

Most importantly, what will happen to gold prices this year, if anything triggers this potentially explosive Japanese demand for gold?



YGM
Another article from same site.....
Mining Trust....(possibly a repost)

By: Ken Gooding
Posted: 2002/03/17 Sun 18:45 ZE2 | � Miningweb 1997-2002


LONDON - Merrill Lynch World Mining Trust (LSE:MLW) has been aggressively building up its gold holdings, a move that has included, among other things, buying US$2.74 million-worth of the Bank of England's bullion. "Gold is looking more interesting than it has been for a very long time," Graham Birch, the investment manager, pointed out when Miningweb discussed the Trust's performance ahead of its annual meeting on March 27. "There are now some hints of investment interest appearing � and it's investment demand that powers bull markets for gold."

By the end of last year the Trust, which has a market value of about �200 million, had boosted gold's share of the portfolio to 25 percent of the net asset value, Birch reveals in his annual report. That compares with 16 percent of NAV at the end of 2000.

The Trust mainly invests in gold shares but is permitted to hold bullion. And it was among the successful bidders at the Bank of England's gold auction at the end of November. It bought 10,000 ounces of bullion at US$273.50 an ounce. This proved to be good timing because, although the price has not exactly raced away, the Trust is showing a profit of about US$175,000, or 6 percent, in less than four months.

YGM
Marc Faber Report..Apr 7/02
Boilermaker
James Grant on CNBC
I just saw James Grant (Interest Rate Observer) give a strong thumbs up for gold on a CNBC interview. He reasoned that Japanese, US and Euro CB's have tilted the paper vs. gold game in favor of gold due to low interest rates and high paper growth. He sees a consumer revolt stirring against currency and a long term bull market starting in gold. He offered no specific ways to play this market.
YGM
Faber Report...
Use Market Commentary button to view...This is subscription only site, but Market Cammentary is viewable.....
Belgian
OOOhhhh Neil....
O'Neil iterates, that the policy of a strong dollar will be continued/maintained and US exporters must adapt to the exchanges !!! (Basta !) Hedge your US$ and keep moving !

In other words...the trade deficit will keep on growing.
OIL / GOLD / INTEREST RATES, all indicate that more dollars are needed to obtain a barril or ounce. Global economy projected a POO-average for 2002 at 18$ ! It will be much higher ! Infla-pressure.
Whatever the reasons are/may be, for maintaining such a virtual strength on the dollar...it will NOT last !

O' Neil is holding hands with the frightened dollar-child, that has something serious to hide for already a very long time. What else can we conclude out of such a statement suddenly out of the blue...or not so suddenly ?

Saudi Arabia reaches the helping hand on the oil taps (turning them clockwise-open). BTW, where's OBL ?
CoBra(too)
@YGM
Hello YGM,

You sure put up some interesting reading since you're back.
Looking back at the years since USAGOLD, GATA and the Cafe started the world has changed dramatically. And so has the investment climate.

Finally PM's are getting to be the topic of the day - and as I feel "you ain't seen nothin' yet". It's like that little snowflake tumbling down the mountain, joining with other flakes until a veritable avalanche builds up the devastating momentum no-one can stop.

As a matter of interest, what would be your minimum POG to induce you to go back to your sluice boxes up North?

Happy Trails, Ken - cb2

The CoinGuy
Belgian...
Other than the suppression of the gold bullion price, and as of late, they seem to be losing their grip, I'm still trying to figure out what their "Strong-Dollar Policy" is...other than verbal-hype.

The CoinGuy
Old Yeller
Strong dollar policy
http://atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html
Quite simply,the biggest and most over-reaching sting operation ever foisted upon mankind.A operation so stunning in scope and complexity,any other historical monetary "operation" pales in comparison.All the while, cleverly concealed from the rank and file of planet Earth's denizens.

This Henry C.K.Lui better watch out,many more articles like this one and he might give OBL a run for top spot on GWB's evil-doers' list.
Sierra Madre
Might as well say it...

WOLFOWITZ is an Irish Catholic, he was an Eagle Scout and altarboy at the Church of the Sacred Heart at his home town.
100% American as Apple Pie and if he says, "Nuke Iraq", you can be absolutely sure it is the RIGHT THING TO DO.

Take that, you mealy-mouthed appeasers of Terrorists!

Sierra



Belgian
Thanks USAGOLD !
Stark / Welteke / Bundesbank : Dumping (!) dollar-reserves and selling (?) a minuscule amount of hugely appreciated Gold-reserves !!! Voila the TG scenario on Gold compensating for crashing dollars. Or even better : Exchanging dollars for euro and supporting Euroland stockmarkets as to not plunge as dramatically as the US stockmarket ? Did O'Neill react on this (dollar-dumping)with his dollar-statement ?
Sierra Madre
Ski, you said:
"Here they come. I can't possibly see how this fund manager can avoid buying PM stocks due to their spectacular
performance over the last year or so."

Reply: "None so blind as those who will not see." Prejudice and a lifetime of ignorance and parroting stupidities about gold can work wonders. What is plain as day to us, is doubtful to the standard mind; it recoils from gold, NO MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY. Eventually, a new point of view will prevail - ours. But, it may take a long time or a terrific, wrenching economic change to bring that about.

MINER49ER: Thanks for your consideration of the Scottish banking system. The creation of the Yufus denotes a deep-seated need and is respectable as a community attempt to do something about their plight.

Remeber, the Colonists of American colonies were also desperately short of money, due to the British impositions, and they too resorted to scrip. Finally, as B. Franklin noted, the Revolution against the English was motivated more by the financial control by the Bank of England, than by anything else.

However, I don't think the "Yufu" will go far, nor last too long. Though motivated by sincere desires to do something, it is essentially weak, and will either be abused or dissolve eventually.

***

The whole world-paper-show is weaker by the day - not stronger! Its rout is in the cards. The Germans, with Stark and Welteke, are intellectually bankrupt and are talking total nonsense. What further debasement of the mind, than to complain about "not being allowed to sell even a tiny bit of gold"?

World-paper-money is actually finished. The big boys know this. The biggest of the big boys are accumulating - that's what Central Bank sales are all about!

Sierra
YGM
CoBra(too)
Hi Back @ you...Yes the snowball from H seems to be coming down the mtn.
Been a looong battle huh? Well we've persevered, fought, shared and especially learned from one another. (I think I've gained wisdom and patience here)....it's been great & continues to get better. If Gold went to the moon I wouldn't return to Yukon to mine as the environmental policy is worse each year. (I may go back for wages + % of profits tho) Just had a ph call today from a friend up there this AM. He's flabbergasted that the Mining inspectors are going to set up camp in his area this yr to monitor on a daily basis his and surrounding operations. One may ask what next? Well I'd bet the Gov't will eventualy
want a gestapo employee present for each and every clean-up so as to collect tax. (Raw Gold still not taxable at present until it's sold) I would like at a future time (when kids older) to return to Bolivia and dredge. Lots of virgin rivers & creeks with awsome potential. Had a taste of it in 95 and would love to go back....Wonderful people out in the Andes and foothills....Take care old friend....
Randy will give you my email if you care to correspond again....Ken
TownCrier
Eurosystem revisited
Thanks again go out to MK (known here as USAGOLD) and Belgian for highlighting this important matter, thus using the developments in Euroland to better scrutinize our our own (U.S.) situation. Cast in this light (great commentary, MK -- #73154), we sure look frail, propping up our debt-paper (currency) with asset-paper (stocks) that is in turn "propped up" through the abundance of the original debt-paper. Where the immediate difference between the U.S. and Euroland rests is that the situation with U.S. dollars has grown more nearly beyond the hope of rescue through prudent management.

"We shall have the hyper-inflation", I heard him say.

In the article MK posted, I want to highlight this excerpt:

------The Bundesbank also revealaed in its full year results for 2001 it had sold some 7.4 bln usd worth of US dollar from its currency reserves during the course of the year.
The bank's vice president Juergen Stark explained that ever since 2000 it has been following a policy of continually reducing its dollar positions over the market.--------

Now, with that in mind, it might be easier to "catch the drift" of euro Management as I alluded to in last week's overview of the latest quarterly asset revaluation. Here is is again. Have a look, and maybe the lightbulbs will start coming on that physical gold is the place to be.

R.
---begin--
TownCrier (04/04/02; 14:44:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 72722)
Catching the ECB/euro drift, yet? Good for gold.
I've been provided with the latest weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, worth special note because it reflects the latest asset revaluations based on their quarterly mark-to-market practices.

Cutting to the chase, the gold assets of the Eurosystem rose by 12.994 billion euros on the revaluation from last quarter's price per ounce, now standing at 139.808 billion euros in value.

And lest you think for a minute that the phenomenon was a result of the euro losing value, think again. Here's the quarterly performance of Eurosystem assets on a per unit basis as priced in euros.

DOLLAR unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.135 euro
@ end March �02 = 1.146 euro

YEN unit value
@ end 2001 = .00867 euro
@ end March �02 = .00866 euro

SDR (Special Drawing Rights) unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.4245 euro
@ end March �02 = 1.4297 euro

GOLD unit value (per troy ounce)
@ end 2001 = 314.99 euro
@ end March �02 = 347.32

Here, then, is the summary of the percentage performance of each asset over the quarter on a per unit basis -- [all nearly even except gold which is strongly up]:

dollar up 1.0%
yen down 0.1%
sdr up 0.4%
gold UP 10.3%

Through this, even the dimmest among central bankers can see the future glowing firmly; and we can, too.

With this compelling trend, there is no wonder that the European Central Bank and its national member CBs allowed, for example, the EUR 1.6 billion drawdown last week of their net position in foreign currency. This asset account of foreign paper now stands at a still massive EUR 258.6 billion to start the next quarter.

Meanwhile, the gold asset account continues its generally steady climb since euro-launch January 1999 where it stood on the books at 99.598 billion euro. Allowing for the bolstering of the gold asset account by 1.5 billion euro with the Greek membership in January 2001 (and not forgetting the measure of early Dutch, Austrian, and late German sales in accordance with the Central Bank Agreement on Gold), the gold assets of the Eurosystem have performed nicely over the years, now valued at EUR 139.808 billion.

Look for more of this -- letting the winners keep running while the weaklings get cut from the team. I hope this summary has been helpful for showing gold in its new light.

Again, here's a reminder of the first element from ECB president Duisenberg's September 26th 1999 joint Statement on Gold from Washington, D.C.:

"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves."

Amen.
---end----
Black Blade
RE: Siochain usagold.com msg#: 73153


I know that several people have bought small generators for emergency purposes (many bought during Y2K preparations). I also knew an individual in the SF Bay Area a few years ago who had a couple of windmills on his property. They were somewhat inconsistent for power but did cut his power bill a bit even though the neighbors complained as it "offended the eyes" and at times were noisy. I understand that researchers at Bezerkley are working on a "spray on" plastic based solar cell technology � perhaps some day it may be viable for individuals.

As far as the country's power needs are concerned, I think that the trend is toward natural gas fired power generation because of the cleaner burning fuel. Virtually every new or planned power plant is NG-fired. Also, many storage facilities have been acquired and many more are in the works. This would lead me to think that the long-term strategy is toward NG as the fuel of choice. I would think that nuclear power is still a viable option as well. However, all combustible forms of power generation are used to heat water for steam and this creates water vapor � the largest contributor to so-called greenhouse gasses � but hey, it's invisible so outta sight, outta mind.

Oil and Coal power has a lot of environmentalist-political based opposition that presents a few problems for the industry (mostly due to sulfur and carbon emissions). Maybe clean-coal technology will advance to where it is politically correct (we have about 350 years of known US coal reserves). Solar and wind are actually quite costly. PETA opposes windmills as they are known to kill birds (actually they refer to them as "Quisenarts for Birds"). Some places are better suited for wind power (like the Altamont Pass Wind Farm in the east SF Bay Area) however, there is a lot of opposition from landowners as these windmill farms are a safety hazard due to many fires in the grasslands from sparks as many of these older mills occasionally breakdown, attract lightening, etc. Hard-core environmentalist opposes both Solar and Wind farms as aesthetically unpleasing because they "offend the eyes". It really comes down to "you can't please everyone".

Anyway, that's my take on the energy situation. Cheers!

- Black Blade

TownCrier
National pride glows with golden hue
http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/12Apr2002_biz20.htmlHEADLINE: Central bank gets final lot of gold bars

(Bangkok Post) -- Luangta Maha Bua made another gift of 40 gold bars, raised through public donations, to the Bank of Thailand yesterday.

Governor M.R Pridiyathorn Devakula said it was the final contribution the central bank would accept from the revered monk, who has campaigned since 1997 to shore up foreign reserves.

...M.R. Pridiyathorn said the country's finances were now well on the road to recovery with foreign reserves of US$36.6 billion.
--------

Citizens can see this as well as central bankers can -- when there is one item in your First Aid Kit that was able to save you last time, you'll think more highly of it and ensure that you have plenty on hand for the next potential emergency. A lesson learned that gold is good.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
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http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

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TownCrier
Attention English citizens: Diversify into gold, writing is on the wall
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APLXIUhTWVS5LLiBFBloomberg HEADLINE: U.K. Euro Debate Would Improve If Pound Fell, BOE's George Says

In a nutshell, this excerpt from the article is what you will want to get your mind around:

-------``The undoubted attraction of nominal exchange rate certainty vis a vis our European trading partners, which is a major potential advantage of adopting the euro, must depend to some degree on the likely exchange rate at which we might join.''

U.K.-based companies like Nissan Motor Manufacturing (U.K.) Ltd. say they've had to cut prices so their products can compete with cheaper ones made in continental Europe. Entering the single currency with the pound at its current value against the euro would lock in the advantage continental companies have.

At the same time, a pound that's fluctuating in value makes it hard for businesses to plan.--------
---
If the prevailing market-motivated trend continues, expect the pound to drop by hook or by crook against the euro, to be followed by its fixed placement in the EMU. Preserve your purchasing power today with a prudent diversification into gold because it shall surely continue an upward move in euro-price if we are reading the official signals and market signs correctly.

Call USAGOLD / Centennial for assistance; doing good business in the UK.

R.
Black Blade
Re: Randy
Is this a subtle hint or what?

-------``The undoubted attraction of nominal exchange rate certainty vis a vis our European trading partners, which is a major potential advantage of adopting the euro, must depend to some degree on the likely exchange rate at which we might join.''

It has been speculated that Cap'n Tony and First Mate "Little Buddy" Eddie George were hot to trot on joining the Euro currency club for a long time.

Yep, the writing is on the wall. Cheers!

- Black Balde
Belgian
@ Coinguy - Strong dollar policy.
Verbally hyping a currency is usually backed by deeds. These under the chapters of the difficult notions of monetary and/or fiscal policies. But I do think it is a bit simplier than that. It is the financial brotherhood that is making or not making "the" waves. Since I'm convinced that the major part of finance is in close collusion with politics...interventions are telephoned !
Another aspect on the dollar-strength is "who" is benefitting from it ? With the increasing trade deficit it is clear that all exporters to the US have some interest in a strong dollar. And it is the US only that will decide when dollar-strenght becomes unbearable.

This weekend might (???) produce shocking results with C. Powell negotiating (a ceasefire) in Israel. And whooooops, the US$ takes another bout of (artificial) strenght out of it. A failur is already in anticipation with SM and $ decline. The Arabian supported Palestinian tactics as the ME burning flame are of a different character as what we witnessed in the past 30 years. The problem is now not isolated to the small Palestine/Israel question. There is a much stronger and broader mobilization of the people in the whole ME ! Euroland / Russia and soon China are going to be involved indirectly into a more intensive way than ever before in this 35 years old conflict. The danger for the dollar has never been so serious as now and not in the least because a dollar decline would be devastating to the US economy ! Much more than the 1985 - 1995 roller coaster from an ATH to a ATL. Reason : the looming euro-alternative.
And than Stark/Welteke/Bundesbank talking about "dumping dollars" ?
Black Blade
Powell's mission snubbed by Israel
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,3-263699,00.html
Snippit:

ARIEL SHARON defiantly toured a Palestinian town yesterday from which he has refused to withdraw troops, in a rebuff to international pressure to end operations in the West Bank. His response greatly complicates the peace mission of Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, who arrives in Israel today. The Israeli Prime Minister also described as a "tragic mistake" General Powell's decision to meet Yassir Arafat, the Palestinian leader. But the Secretary of State insisted that his mission was not in jeopardy, saying that he had decided to meet Mr Arafat because he was the elected leader of the Palestinian people.


Black Blade: The war in the Middle East is not improving much. Another suicide bomber attempted to get into Israel, however, he prematurely detonated killing himself. Meanwhile Israeli troops attempted to kill Armenian Christian Monks in Bethlehem (one made it to a hospital and is in critical condition � the fate of the others is unknown). Israelis are also firing on Christian shrines and landmarks (note that many Jews and Muslims in this part of the world refer to Christians as "Cockroaches"). Last week a Christian caretaker was shot in the back by Israelis as he fought a fire at the Catholic church in Bethlehem. Meanwhile, Hamas fighters have been launching rockets into Israel along the Lebanese border threatening to open up a second front. There is still the possibility that war and more unrest could spread throughout the region. The US State Department has warned that all US citizens avoid the Middle East due to more kidnapping and terrorist threats. Rioting continues in many ME countries as their citizens demand action against Israel. "Interesting Times"
Cavan Man
Hey Sierra....
I don't care if Wolfowitz is an altar boy, rabbi or buddhist monk on leave from Tibet. He is a NUT IMHO and the guy he works for is crazier still. I am glad to know you figure to be the last man standing after the various and large scale acts of violence that are sure to occur as a result of foreign policy incoherence 101. My only question for you is sir, where will you spend your winnings!
Cavan Man
@Sierra Madre
Such presumption!
Sierra Madre
Stark und Welteke...

Their talk about having been excluded from the possibility of selling even a tiny bit of gold, and other nonsense:

These Germans may be:

1. Talking nonsense because they are stupid, or corrupt, or are frightened by things we don't see clearly yet.

2. Talking nonsense because they are spreading disinformation regarding their real purposes.

3. Talking nonsense because they want to distract attention from other issues.

Cavan Man - sometimes the craziness of this world gets to me and I also talk nonsense, for relief.

Sierra
sector
@CavenMan...About SECDEF Rumsfeld and Paul Wolferwicz
See...it only makes sense if they were selected BECAUSE they were insane, marginally controllable, power-mad, crazed lunatics.

Who would believe a good-old-boy from West Texas could nuke millions and then have a cold Heinekin?
Sierra Madre
More nonsense....
Herr Stark and Herr Welteke
Were walking close at hand;
They wept like anything to see
Such quantities of gold:
`If this were only cleared away,'
They said, `It would be grand!'

`If seven maids with seven mops
Swept it for half a year,
Do you suppose,' Herr Stark said,
`That they could get it clear?'
`I doubt it,' said Herr Welteke,
And shed a bitter tear.

"Oh Oysters, come and walk with us..."

Thanks for the invitation, but, no thanks!

Find the whole story at google.com - The Walrus and the Carpenter.

Sierra


silvester
US Oil Consumption

I should have kept better notes over the years but I know someone here can answer, Blackblade? or anyone?

What is the daily oil consumption is the US and does that number include all motor fuels since they are refined from the oil?

YGM
Gold Quote....
Gotta like this one......"If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a beautiful pine tree, worth about $4,000 - $5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp and then paper, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?"

Kenneth J. Gerbino

**Federal Reserve Logging & Paper Co?????? :o)
YGM
Gold Quote...
Sounds Familiar....."Gold is not necessary. I have no interest in gold. We'll build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration. That's the bastion of money."

Adolf Hitler
Guided
Talk
After all the talk and shoulda, coulda, woulda, it seems there are basically three kinds of people. First, those who love truth and freedom and are willing to fight for it. Second, those who fear truth and freedom and want to take it away from those who have it. And third, those who mistakenly think the second type will go away if ignored.
Mr Gresham
Backwaters of Political Evolution
"Political Evolution?" Now there's an oxymoron. My fingers nearly fell off the keyboard laughing as they tapped out those two words side-by-side.

Are the Darwin Awards nominations already closed for this year? Possibly a special re-opening, or a monthly awarding, is in order in these "interesting times."

BB: "Another suicide bomber attempted to get into Israel, however, he prematurely detonated killing himself. Meanwhile Israeli troops attempted to kill Armenian Christian Monks in Bethlehem (one made it to a hospital and is in critical condition � the fate of the others is unknown). "

"Powell's mission snubbed by Israel: Ariel Sharon defiantly toured a Palestinian town yesterday from which he has refused to withdraw troops, in a rebuff to international pressure to end operations in the West Bank. "

CoBra(too)
Mission Impossible!
While Colin Powell arrived in Israel tonight - the first views of devastated towns of the Westbank were reaching the world. Jenin, Jamallah and even Bethlehem are smoldering and the streets are littered by debris, burned out cars and probably human victims. The death toll will not be known readily, though up to 500 Palestinians may have perished in the last ten days.

Sharon's brand of WAT, while understandable in view of the recurring suicide bombings of late, will only lead to more hatred and stepped up terror acts. There seems no solution possible in this mission impossible.

The Madrid resulution by USA, EU, Russia and UN had absolutely no effect and now Sharon may become the monster, while Arafat a martyr. - Just great geo-politics to be lenient vis a vis Sharon, who probably comes from similar terrorist stock as Arafat.

... Meanwhile, Venezuela, another important oil producer is erupting into chaos.

Just great - while the precarious balance in the globe's economy, already riddled, if not ridiculed by ongoing fraudulent scandals and scams in the corporate and financial sectors, threatens to tear apart the whole system of fiat debauchery.

On top of that we've had IBM and now GE - forget Enron - the system is rapidly unravelling - for all to see!

Got Gold? ... The ultimate security - cb2
Graefin
Miner49er...msg # 73117
YOU are a classic! Can't tell you how much I enjoyed reading your snips and pearls of laughter! You made a long day that much more enjoyable! Go Gold!
- Gr�fin ;-)
Boilermaker
Siilvestor- US oil consumption
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/historic/hpetroleum.htmAbout 19.5 million bbls/day in 2000 of which 5.8 million bbls/day come from US wells. Natural gas liquids (NGL's) account for another 2.0 million bbls/day from US wells. We imported about 11.1 million bbls/day in 2000. The link above gives all petroleum (and other energy) historical data for US.
Black Blade
Silvester - Daily US Oil Consumption

Boilermaker is about right. I believe that we in the US are running at about 22 million bbl/day on oil and condensates. This rate of increase has actually slowed due to a combination of warmer weather and the lowered demand due to the economic recession. Thankfully we have an deep economic recession or demand would be much higher (along with much higher energy prices) that would deepen a worsening recession further.

The real concern however, is natural gas (NG is the real sleeper in the energy sector). natural Gas supply is reported to be higher than last year and therefore lower prices have led to less exploration and production. Yet all new power generation is NG-fired and demand is increasing. The NOAA projects a warmer than usual summer and that will likley draw a lot of energy in warmer regions (the "air conditioner season"). It appears that this fall and winter we could see a hurried rush to build up supply as producers are caught flat-footed in a new "Energy Crisis". Of course if fuel cell technology becomes viable then we will see an even faster demand growth for NG.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
R Powell
Sierra Madre
Well done. Your nonsense made sense and evoked smiles. Thanks
Rich
Arcticfox
What's up on Wall Street...
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={46A26C4B-2893-4AF8-944B-3C9BC6CB97A1}&siteid=mktwDAVID CALLAWAY




In a delicious twist to the growing analyst research scandal, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is using the very symbol of the Internet economy - e-mail - as his weapon to bring down the investment banks that fleeced America during the Internet bubble.

The affidavit filed by Spitzer this week against Merrill Lynch and its former star Web analyst, Henry Blodget, contained dozens of incriminating e-mails from Blodget and his team, privately referring to stocks that they had favorable recommendations on as "dogs." Or "pieces of junk" or "powder kegs."

Although the affidavit is contested by Merrill (MER: news, chart, profile), the world's largest brokerage, as a compilation of quotes taken out of context, it's pretty hard to imagine what kind of context they could have been in to make them OK.

Like this one, from Blodget himself, following a dispute with management at the end of 2000 over whether to downgrade the company's ratings on Aether Systems while Merrill's investment bankers were pursuing a private placement deal with the company.

"The more I read of these the less willing I am to cut companies any slack, regardless of predictable temper-tantrums, threats and/or relationship damage that are likely to follow," Blodget said. "We are going to start just calling the stocks, including AETH, like we see them, no matter what the ancillary business consequences are."

Or this one, when Blodget's team downgraded shares of GoTo.com, now known as Overture Services, the day after the company left Merrill at the altar and went with Credit Suisse First Boston on a public offering.

"Beautiful f-k em."

Or the examples on how some companies were allowed to edit the Merrill research team's recommendations before they went out, approving or rejecting suggested ratings and even writing in quotes for the analysts themselves. In one instance, a company agreed to a particular rating, but only if its chief rival's shares were downgraded to that same rating, the affidavit said.

But the most damning e-mail of all comes from Merrill analyst Kirsten Campbell, in the middle of another dispute about GoTo.com, regarding how to initiate coverage of the company in the autumn of 2000. GoTo's chief financial officer, Todd Tappin, was pushing for a higher rating as the company was weighing its options on its public offering.

Campbell wrote to Blodget:

If (an accumulate rating) means that we are putting half of Merrill retail (investors) into this stock because they are out accumulating it then I don't think that's the right thing to do," she wrote. "We are losing people money and I don't like it. John and Mary Smith are losing their retirement because we don't want Todd (Tappin) to be mad at us."

There you have it, the essence of the problem. In its never-ending race to win more business, Wall Street runs right over the individual investors who grease its very wheels. Everyone always knew there were conflict of interest problems on the sell side, but never has it been more dramatically illustrated.

Merrill has made some changes in the last few months and was ordered this week to make some more, including disclosing whether it has banking relationships with companies whose stocks its analysts are writing about. But as my colleague Mike Tarsala points out in his column this week, Merrill will ultimately get past this without much legal punishment at all. See Mike's column.

In this business, however, public humiliation can be far worse than any legal remedy. Just ask Arthur Andersen. It will take Merrill months - if not years -- to recover from the damage Spitzer's e-mail collection has done to its reputation. And that's only if Spitzer doesn't follow through on his threat to indict certain analysts and make them testify in court.

Next in line for humiliation: everybody else on Wall Street. Spitzer has subpoenaed records - and likely e-mails - from the likes of Salomon Smith Barney (C: news, chart, profile), Goldman Sachs (GS: news, chart, profile), Morgan Stanley (MWD: news, chart, profile), Lehman (LEH: news, chart, profile), and CSFB (CSR: news, chart, profile). See full story.

You can be sure those banks are now in furious rounds of settlement negotiations to avoid Merrill's fate. Money will be no object in trying to keep their e-mails private. Let's hope Spitzer can hold out. This time, we need a lot more than a slap-on-the-wrist fine and a promise not to do it again from Wall Street.

Wholesale change in investment banking research is needed. Analysts must not be put in positions where they are receiving pressure from both the companies they cover and their own company to juice the numbers or provide a favorable mention.

It's not as simple as hacking off the research departments from each firm. The answer is going to be more transparency for the public into how big investment banks work, because the conflicts are not just in research, but throughout their operations.

Who would have thought that e-mail could be such a powerful weapon in this case, succeeding in forcing change where congressional hearings and regulatory penalties never have?

Blodget, who earned $12 million in 2001 as his stock picks tanked, will from this week on forever be known as the poster boy for conflicts on Wall Street. But if the result of these investigations is a fairer and more transparent marketplace, then maybe he will have done some good after all.

David Callaway is executive editor of CBS.MarketWatch
Black Blade
NOW KPMG's IN HOT WATER OVER XEROX
http://www.nypost.com/business/14141.htm
Snippit:

April 11, 2002 -- Another big accounting firm, KPMG, has been dragged into the widening probe of the cooked-books epidemic in corporate America. The accounting firm said yesterday the Securities and Exchange Commission may file fraud charges against the firm for its role in Xerox's accounting scandal.

KPMG, the auditor for 30 years, said it was fired by Xerox for refusing to sign off on Xerox's annual report for 2000 unless auditors could do a broader internal probe of books. Xerox later came under two federal investigations of its books. Last week, Xerox settled the claims from the probes and agreed to pay a record $10 million to put the matter behind it and restate earnings for five years.



Black Blade: Oh oh � another criminal enterprise is exposed. We were looking for the next Enron (though there have been several such as Qwest, Global Crossing, Waste Management, etc.), what we find now is the next Arthur Andersen. The cockroaches are running for cover as "cooking the books" is no longer acceptable and corporate earnings are being restated en masse. "Interesting Times"
Mr Gresham
Rodney King Awards
Or, maybe that's what's needed alongside the Darwin Awards?

"Can't we all just get along?"

(Only it usually has to come from the average-type non-heroic guy who took the beating, but is willing to give up his rights to gripe. Also requires some impartial listeners who can hear the magnanimity and generosity in his request. Bomb blasts and tank engines on the move particularly suited to drowning out such questions.)
Cavan Man
US Troops in ME
How they gonna take it down on the farm?
Or, why not; we're everywhere else. What ever happened to arming ouselves to the teeth and trading with everybody to our economic benefit? You know; pulling out of all the countries we haave our troops in around the world?


US force may monitor ceasefire in Middle East
By Harvey Morris in Jerusalem, Judy Dempsey in Madrid and Roula Khalaf in Amman
Published: April 11 2002 20:08 | Last Updated: April 11 2002 21:24



Colin Powell, the US secretary of state, embarks on a series of crucial meetings on Friday to end Middle East violence that could lead to the dispatch of a small US force to monitor a ceasefire, diplomats said on Thursday.

As the Israeli army pursued its two-week-old offensive with incursions into two more towns and a refugee camp near Nablus, Mr Powell again warned that the offensive would not end the conflict.

Israeli officials said more than 4,000 people had been detained in the offensive. Relief agencies said several thousand had been left homeless around the Jenin refugee camp, scene of some of the worst fighting between Palestinian gunmen and Israeli forces.

Mr Powell, speaking in Madrid before departing for Jordan and Israel on Thursday, said: "No matter how effective the Israeli defence forces believe they are right now in rooting out terrorism and going after other targets they have set themselves, when it's over there will still be people who are willing to resort to violence and terror."

Mr Powell refrained, however, from reiterating Washington's demands for Israel - so far rejected by Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime minister - to begin an immediate withdrawal from the West Bank.

The two men spoke by telephone on Thursday and they are due to meet on Friday in Jerusalem. Mr Sharon said the army had pulled out of 22 West Bank villages.

However, troops went into the small towns of Bir Zeit and Dahariya and the refugee camp of Ein Beit Elma on Thursday. A number of students at Bir Zeit University, a strongly nationalist campus north of Ramallah, were among those arrested. The army said 121 of more than 4,000 Palestinians arrested in its two-week sweep through the main West Bank towns were on Israel's most-wanted list.

UNRWA, the United Nations relief agency, said 3,000 people were homeless around Jenin. The army continued to bar entry to the refugee camp there on Thursday.

With Mr Sharon apparently determined to continue the offensive in the face of US and world pressure, Mr Powell was expected to urge him to address underlying aspects of the conflict that would figure in peace talks, such as the future of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories and the fate of Palestinian refugees.

In his Friday meeting with Yassir Arafat - which Mr Sharon opposes but is unlikely to prevent - Mr Powell will urge the Palestinian Authority leader to issue a statement in Arabic to his people condemning terrorism.

While he will again urge Mr Arafat to crack down on terrorism, diplomats said the US recognises that the ability of the Palestinian security forces to act has been crippled by the offensive.

They said the issue of international observers to monitor a ceasefire, which the Palestinians favour but Israel has until now opposed, was bound to be raised.

Mr Sharon might be prepared to accept a small US-only force, but this in itself would be symbolic of international involvement in attempts to solve the conflict, diplomats said.

Gideon Saar, Israeli cabinet secretary, said on Thursday that Israel remained totally opposed to an international observer force.



Black Blade
Calif. seeks rules to lure Northwest power imports
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020411/utilities_california_ferc_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, April 12 (Reuters) - California power industry officials proposed a range of pricing schemes on Thursday in a bid to persuade reluctant out-of-state marketers to ship badly needed electricity to the state this summer.

The operators of the California grid say they need 3,500 megawatts of electricity imports -- mainly from the Pacific Northwest -- to avoid toppling the grid when consumer demand for air conditioning peaks in the hot summer months.

Utilities and marketers in the Northwest, however, have threatened to hold back supplies this summer as long as a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) market order is kept in place -- an order they claim denies them a fair price for their electricity. ``We are trying to find a way to allow the market to function this summer so imports can continue and we can keep the lights on,'' Jan Smutny-Jones, head of the California Independent Energy Producers, told Reuters.


Black Blade: It would appear that the Kalifornia Grasshoppers will be begging their neighbors for electricity again this year. Some people never learn. At some point they must decide to build more power plants, upgrade and add to infrastructure, and just bite the bullet.

The CoinGuy
Interesting read from the Bond Guru...Bill Gross
http://www.pimco.com/bonds_commentary_investmentoutlook_recent_index.htmHis call might be a little late by my clock, but Bill's commentary is usually ahead of Wall Street's curve:

snippit:

And because Greenspan must keep short rates relatively low, the risk of inflation in future years will be greater than otherwise, the yield curve will remain more positively sloped than otherwise, and the dollar will ultimately be weaker than otherwise. Bond investors should therefore continue to emphasize the front-end of the yield curve, avoid long-term bonds and keep durations close to index levels

(Rest of the article at the link above)

Belgian: Thanks for commentary; well received on this end...Physical metals, and Euros are looking better by the day; I also might add, my diversification lies in that order.

The CoinGuy
timbervision
RobTV
I just heard a guest analyst on ROBTV, Canada's business TV station,answering a phone in caller's question about Glamis Gold. He recommended that investors look at the unhegded mines and the Barrick would not be leveraged best for an increase in the gold price, but he finished by saying don'
timbervision
continued
I just heard a guest analyst on ROBTV, Canada's business TV station,answering a phone-in caller's question about Glamis Gold. He recommended that investors look at the unhegded mines and that Barrick would not be leveraged best for an increase in the gold price, but he finished by saying don't buy the metal because it won't give you the leverage that the gold mining companies will give.

More gold slander and leading the lambs to slaughter.
Black Blade
Lucent seen cutting 5,000 more jobs
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B602B3BCB%2DC25B%2D4C22%2D9225%2DA7809582C02A%7D
Shares of telecom firm fall to all-time low

Snippit:

MURRAY HILL, N.J. (CBS.MW) -- Lucent Technologies is reportedly planning to trim as many as 5,000 jobs, as weak growth continues to dog the phone-equipment industry.

Black Blade: More "Phone Bones" are off to the growing "Bone Pile".
Black Blade
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell by 55,000 to 438,000 Last Week
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APLWBzBMbVS5TLiBJ
Snippit:

Washington, April 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. initial jobless claims dropped last week, as fewer unemployed workers filed new applications to receive an extension of benefits.


Black Blade: Aside from this data presented as being "seasonally adjusted" or filing for extended benefits, any value above 400,000 is considered recessionary. In a word � "Grim"
Black Blade
El Nino May Strike U.S. by Mid-Summer
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APLWwOhOlRWwgTmlu
Snippit:

Washington, April 11 (Bloomberg) -- The effects of an El Nino weather pattern, which caused about $5 billion in U.S. crop and property losses when it last appeared five years ago, may be felt in the U.S. as early as mid-summer, a U.S. weather agency said.

Pacific Ocean temperatures rose 2 to 3 degrees Celsius, or almost 4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit, above average near the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru in March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. Warming ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific precede an El Nino, scientists say.

An El Nino occurs about every four to five years and can last as long as 18 months, triggering severe storms, heat waves, drought and floods. The El Nino of 1997-98 caused flooding in California and the U.S. Gulf Coast, meteorologists said. The last El Nino was blamed for thousands of deaths and as much as $96 billion in crop and property losses worldwide, a United Nations report in October 2000 said.



Black Blade: Get that air conditioner ready and watch the energy prices rise along with the temperature.

Black Blade
Argentines snowed under by paper IOUs
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3DOW4JVZC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
Snippit:

As they finish their tea and croissants, two elegantly dressed ladies at a Buenos Aires cafe ask their waiter how they might pay.

As if reciting the day's menu from memory, the waiter gives them several options: pesos, lecops, patacones (but only series I) and all classes of tickets - luncheon vouchers that circulate widely at restaurants and supermarkets in the city. Oh, and of course, US dollars, which will be accepted at a rate of three pesos each.

It is no wonder that many Argentines feel that they are swimming against the global current. At the same time that Europeans from 12 different countries have moved to adopt a single currency, Argentines have gone the other way, with upwards of a dozen new forms of money appearing in recent months.


Black Blade: Maybe they should use Yufus.
Black Blade
Colombian rebels targeting oil companies
http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/world_industry_news/apr02_rebels.html
Snippit:

(4/11/2002 - OGI: Caracas) Colombia's Ej�rcito de Liberaci--n Nacional (ELN) rebels have declared the state oil company Ecopetrol as well as Occidental and Repsol-YPF operations in the country military targets. In the past, ELN as well as the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), the largest guerilla organization in the country, have kept their attacks on oil industry installations almost entirely focused on pipelines such as the Cano Limon, which was bombed more than 170 times last year.

Now, however, ELN has expanded its campaign against oil company operations to include not only pipelines, but all other infrastructure, according to ELN Commander-in-Chief Manual P�rez Martinez.

Black Blade: More constraints on western oil supply.
Canuck
@BB
Good day good man.

I heard a pimp on the 'Headline News' exclaim that the strike in Venezuala was 'wrapping up'. Any truth to this statement?

In regards to gold, I see the bearishness of the settling down of the ME equal to the bullishness of the uprising in the 'accounting world'. I see weakness in gold short-term, your thoughts?

Anyone else?

Thanks,

Canuck
Black Blade
North American investors get the gold bug
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=20714
Snippit:

A higher gold price, low inflation and fading memories of the nightmare Bre-X mining fraud have sent North American gold stocks surging in the past few months, whetting investor appetites again for mining and exploration companies. "People remain cautious but it is still the most positive sentiment we have seen in about four years in mining investment generally," said Gordon Bogden, MD of Beacon Group Advisors in Toronto.

Gold stocks were almost forgotten for nearly half a decade as investors were swept up in the tech-stock bubble. The bubble burst in March 2000, and now, for the first time since about 1996, the investment pendulum has swung back toward gold-mining stocks as bullion tests levels of between $295 and $300 an ounce.


Black Blade: Clearly sentiment is changing for Gold. Even the financial media has been giving more positive press. Gold elicits an emotional response. How often do you hear � "Gadzooks! Zinc just jumped 5 cents!" or "I had better buy an ingot of copper!" or "I had better put some silicon chips in my safety deposit box". No, people are more likely to say "Gold is rising and the economy is a bit shakey, maybe I should get some Gold".

R Powell
Keep the change
I've been watching the price of silver as compared to a bushel of soybeans.
On the May contract, soybeans closed today at $4.580 while the May silver contract closed at $4.583 so one ounce of silver buys one bushel of soybeans with 3/10 of a penny in change.
There is no apparent reason for any comparison here that I'm aware of other than that I believe the price of both will rise this year and next. Perhaps we might have a race.
How much falsifying of records, conflict of interest and lack of financial integrety will be tolerated before wholesale disinvestment strikes the equities markets? I sense that it wouldn't take too much now. External events with bad consequences can be viewed as unfortunate but external as in a streak of bad luck. But when price declines become perceived as self-inflicted by way of outright fraud from within the system itself, my sense is that investors will cash out, saying, it's not bad luck- the cards are marked! It will be very hard to spin doctor this "bad" news into something that becomes market supportive. Is this another horseman? Will the sudden realization that the casino games are rigged end the madness of mania? Certainly falling prices, no earnings, outrageous valuations, war and more threats of war only slowed down the casino action. When the average Jill and Joe start placing blame, by association, on Ted David, Joe Kernan and poor Maria, (without whom the bull market would never have thrived as well as it did), then maybe, for many, the game will simply end. What then? The hustlers will have to play against one another until another generation of suckers arrives. The game will have fewer players and become even more cutthroat. I believe many of us would have a better chance playing one on one against the hustlers. They're not that good in an above board, honest game.
Some investors will seek a different game entirely. Perhaps the next fad will center on tangible possessions?
One more day until the Weekend!!!
Rich
R Powell
Argentina snowed under by IOUs
B.B. What's wrong with those people. Haven't they heard of yufus?
Waverider
Venezuela Clashes Kill Eight as Chavez Ouster Sought
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Business&T=sa_content.ht&s=APLYowxY3VmVuZXp1Snippit:
"Venezuelan military tanks moved into the nation's capital [Caracas] as at least eight people were killed in clashes between supporters and opponents of President Hugo Chavez as a dispute over the state oil company escalated into a struggle for control of the government.

Chavez cut the main signal for private television stations and rejected calls to step down after three years in office. Tens of thousands of protesters marched on the presidential palace in Caracas, demanding his resignation. Police tossed tear gas and fired shots. Generals opposed to Chavez said on Radio Caracas TV, a station that restored some service, that they would fight the president.

``We're either at the door to a civil war in the country, or at the beginning of the generals taking over,'' said Erik Ekvall, a Caracas-based political analyst. ``There is no chance for dialogue, Chavez has blood on his hands. It's just a matter of time until the military makes its move.''

Waverider: It seems that Venezuelan oil exports could be halted for more than a few days given the escalation of the political and social crisis.
Black Blade
Re: Canuck - Venezuela Strike and POG
Hi Guy,

The strike in Venezuela was originally set to last one day. Then El Presidente made several threats and began acting like a "piss ant" Third World dictator. That ticked off quite a few people including labor union leaders and even some top military brass. Today the unions responded by saying that the strike would last indefinitely. Who knows, anything is possible. So far the strike continues.

Every time so far the POG has rebounded after falling below $300/oz. It is possible that Gold could pull back but then again, the world is proving to be an uncertain place. The Japanese economy and banking system is in collapse threatening to crush the rest of Asia with it, The Middle East could blow up anytime as Israel says that they are pulling out of the West Bank only to attack another area, Oil supply from other ME OPEC members could be cut if the conflict spreads, the western economies are in sorry shape as corporations report falling earnings, crushing corporate debt and numerous reports of corporate accounting scandals break daily, etc. I don't know, but I see no reason for the POG to retreat in the face of such "grim" news everywhere one looks. Then again, who can account for some of the senseless market rallies after all the terrible economic news and unbelievable media spin over the last couple of years.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
silvester
US Oil Consumption

Thanks Boilermaker and Black Blade for the info.

I work for a major US based chemical company. I am in the marine shipping part of the business and decided to convert this daily oil consumption into numbers I can understand since 20,000,000 billion barrels per day is mind boggling.

The bulk liquid cargo barges I work with are of 10,000 barrel capacity and resticted to inland waterways. Imported oil comes by way of ship and ocean going barges capable of carrying much higher capacities than what we use, but to get a real picture of the amount of oil we consume daily I used the smaller barges which are very common to the chemical industry.

If we were to line these barges up end to end they would cover 75 miles. Thats 2000 barges per day!

We handle several hundred barges a year at the facility I work at so 2000 a day quite a large number when compared.

So, we're paying 50 something billion a day for oil. Importing over half of it. 30 something billion dollars a day going overseas! Thats just oil dollars, that don't count the other billions.

We got a bad habit friends and the world can't support it any longer. Not at $300 gold. Something has to give.
silvester
Last post
Oops, mean't to say 20 billion. Not 20,000,000 billion, what ever that is.
timbervision
silvester
I think you meant 20 million barrels per day, or 840 million gallons/day.
Black Blade
Silvester - Daily US Oil Consumption

I think that you mean 22 million bbl/day, (not billion). However, worldwide the daily oil consumption is about 77 million bbl/day. Cheers!

- Black Blade
silvester
Oil Consumption
Yes, 20 million. That is the number I used. Just can't seem to write it. A huge number for a day rate. Thanks

Black Blade
Drill Alaska -- for the children
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2002/04/11/ED116189.DTL
Snippit:

NOW THAT Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has threatened to cut oil exports for 30 days to protest Israel's military presence in Palestinian territories, the U.S. Senate has urgent reason to vote in favor of drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

It's a "national security imperative," Chuck Brooks, of the American Jewish Council, told Reuters news service as the reason his group switched its position and now supports drilling in ANWR. More domestic oil means greater American energy independence.

Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska, added that since Hussein helps pay Palestinian suicide bombers $25,000 each, "Each time an American goes to the gas pump, he is funding indirectly the suicide bombers." While the exact amount of oil in ANWR is not known, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said that ANWR production "could replace more than 35 years of Iraqi oil imports."


Black Blade: And you probably have seen the government's commercials telling Americans that they support terrorism if they buy drugs, now they should explain that Americans support terrorism every time they fill up at the pump. Maybe we need a Gasoline Czar. Hmmm�
Waverider
General says Venezuela's Chavez ousted
http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&eid=1103073Snippit:
"A Venezuelan general says President Hugo Chavez's government has "abandoned its functions" and the South American country is under the control of the armed forces.

National Guard Gen. Alberto Camacho Kairuz made the announcement on local television on Thursday after senior military officers blamed the president for violence during a huge anti-Chavez protest march in which at least 10 people were killed.

"All of the country is under the control of the national armed forces," Camacho said.

The shooting broke out as Chavez was giving a broadcast, carried on all national television and radio channels, in which he criticised as "irresponsible" and "subversive" an indefinite general strike called by business and labour opponents who organised the march."

Waverider: It appears that the military coup is fait accompi. Implications for oil...comments?
sector
On the Possibility of "Retreating Gold Prices"
@ Black Blade Like you, I agree that pog goes up from here......there are several related indicators (1) the largest gold mine in the world [Anglogold] just declared that the will buy 14 million ounces "Aggressively" to cover short positions (2) the US Federal Reserve has directed its two main bullion banks [CitiBank and Morgan] to cut their gold derivatives by 50% and 70% respectively (3) JPM has cut its interest rate derivatives monster book by $6 Trillion [Not a misprint], IRDs are indirectly related to pog (4) unrelenting stress on Japanese savers as their account insurance has been halved and finally, as you point out, world political instability of which the next US terrorist event and its consequences is but a part.

Arrayed against these gold-positive factors are the dwindling US reserves used to sell and suppress pog. While experts in derivatives management, the Fed's acolytes now have shown convincing signs of a coming capitulation� or at least a retrenchment effort to hold gold at $350 or so for as long as they can.

Gold has a floor under it.

This is something that almost no other investment can offer today.

Too many folks have stopped at this point and not given sufficient attention to the long-term landscape when gold breaks through the current "line in the sand".

Perhaps if we could resurect John Law he could give an interesting dissertation on what the future holds for the US and its currency?
Black Blade
Waverider � Venezuela Coup

I had heard that independent media outlets were closed and that police were firing on demonstrators. I had heard that some generals were giving their support to the demonstrators. This could actually be a positive step as long as the military does not try to take over the functions of government. El Presidente is a certifiable idiot. If these reports are true, then the strike could end in the next couple of days. Still, there could be a lot of civil unrest as El Presidente has a lot of support among the impoverished that saw a Marxist state as a good thing. Now we wait to see what develops. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Siochain
Eurosystems Treatment of Gold leasing!!!!
http://www.bundesbank.de/ezb/de/publications/pdf/statintreserves.pdfIn do some research, I ran across the Bundesbank prepared summary of Eurosystems treatment of international reserves published in October 2000 (I don'[t know if there is an update)...including gold....I haven't digested it all yet but a few things are very "interesting" and offer some intriguing possibilities:

1- On what we here term leased gold.....the Bundesbank carries the gold on their books at current gold closing prices even though the gold is in for example JPM's hands and the Bundesbank ONLY has COLLATERAL for the "original price of gold at the time of the lease plus additional collateral to cover interest" (again based on gold price at time of lease)

2- The payment of cash interest is not due UNTIL the gold is returned and the transaction completed (or called!!!)....thus the JPMs of the world also not only owe gold but accumulated interest in cash (though in example below...it is deposited in JPM when settled...nice deal!)

3- If the gold is not returned...the collateral is kept by the Bundebank ....which in the case of a US leaser of gold would be US Government Securities .......and remember this collateral is in the amount based on gold price at the time of the lease and would also be impacted by the worth of the US government security.

For example if JPM put up Treasuries and they later take a hit in value ...not only does JPM have to return gold purchased at current price plus cash interest...they get back devalued securities....seems like a recipe for default ....or means the Bundesbank may need to ensure the US Securities stay high or they might only get to keep devalued US securities

4- The Bundesbank appears to have the right to- at least in the example below - be able to make a demand return of gold...I wonder if this is a standard agreement....if so...could be some real fireworks ahead as gold increases .and/or US Securities are devalued...note item 2 in the following example given in the report for the JPM transaction

"IV.1 Gold transactions

An NCB iCAlr of the euro area performs the following transactions in gold:

1. 5 Dec. 1999: purchases 20,000 ounces of gold from the Bank of England, at USD 300 / gold oz. This
transaction is settled by means of a credit entry in a six-month deposit in USD in the Bank of England in
inAls (at 3%).

2. 15 Dec. 1999: one-month gold deposit of 10,000 ounces in J. P. Morgan New York. JPM places USD
3,100,000 in US government securities as collateral. Under the terms of the loan, JPM agrees to return
the gold on demand; otherwise, the collateral would be exercised. At maturity (on 15 January 1999), in
addition to the gold, ioAl, receives from JPM USD 3,000; this amount is placed in a deposit denominated
in USD in JPM. At the same time, the collateral returns to JPM.

3. 20 Dec. 1999: i9Al: undertakes a gold swap with the United States Federal Reserve in which i��Al��
provides the Federal Reserve with 1,000 ounces of gold in exchange for USD 300,000, in currency. The
transaction will be reversed on 20 January 1999, at the spot price of the gold prevailing in the market at
that moment."

Comment:There are many more "facts" in this paper...but I'll leave it here for tonight...I've been so busy reading this...I'm beat ...and off to sleep!


Black Blade
'WE CANNOT ACCEPT A TYRANT'

Late on Thursday, local TV stations showed pictures of armored vehicles rolling through the streets of central Caracas. One TV station showed heavily armed soldiers and armored vehicles around Fuerte Tiuna military headquarters in Caracas.

In another prerecorded TV statement, a group of at least 10 officers from different branches of the armed forces denounced Chavez.

"We, generals and admirals of the Army, Navy, Air Force and National Guard ... we have decided to address the Venezuelan people to reject the current government, the authority of Hugo Chavez Frias and the military high command," said an officer dressed in a white uniform.

"We cannot accept a tyrant in the presidency," said the officer, who identified himself as Adm. Hector Ramirez.

He accused the Chavez government of violating democratic principles and human rights. Ramirez also accused the president of "massacring innocent people with sharpshooters."

"There were snipers firing from the rooftops," a Reuters cameraman said. Police took cover and returned fire.


Black Blade: "Interesting Times"

Black Blade
Venezuela renationalises gold mine
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1923000/1923139.stm
Snippit:

Vannessa Ventures is ousted from Venezuelan gold mine

A Venezuelan state company is looking for new investors in one of Latin America's largest gold deposits, after revoking an exploration license for Las Cristinas in the south-east of the country. Canadian mining group Placer Dome was awarded the rights to develop the mine 11 years ago.

The Venezuelan government had hoped it would generate billions of dollars for the economy and hundreds of jobs. But ten years later the site had still not started commercial production and Corporaci--n Venezolana de Guayana (CVG), the state-owned conglomerate and partner in the project, has made it clear that it does not want the Canadian firm there.


Black Blade: Current events could turn this story into an "interesting soap" opera.
miner49er
Graefin @ 73190
Liebe Gr�fin...

Seit du auch einen lange Tag hattest, bin froh dieses Post war unterhaltend...

Wenn Tageszeit ist voll und schwer,
Und ganz zu schnell kommt Abend,
Dann liegt mann in der Nacht so still,
Heute nimmermehr zu haben.

Zuerst rastlos, dann beruhigte,
Besinnlich, dann Besinnungslos,
Bis wieder aufgenommen im
Arbeiten und dem Alltagstrott.

Aber immer nochmals m��en wir
Zeit machen, um zu lachen...


mit freundlichen Gr��en,
miner49er

(Hoffentlich war mein Deutsch verst�ndliche geschrieben... nicht mehr habe ich Gelegenheiten sie zu spechen.)
Black Blade
Nikkei and Hang Seng in the Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The two major market indices are lower tonight. Also Gold is lower by -$1.50 and Oil is off by 45 cents.
Black Blade
Oil Sinks on Venezuela Turmoil
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020412/markets_oil_1.html
By Himangshu Watts

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped to a four-week low on Friday after a Venezuelan general said President Hugo Chavez had been ousted, prompting speculation of an end to an oil workers strike, which had crimped the country's exports.

U.S. benchmark light crude fell 48 cents to $24.51 a barrel in Asia, extending Thursday's $1.14 loss in New York. Crude is at the lowest level since March 18, when prices kicked off a rally to six-month peaks above $28 on fears of a potential supply squeeze due to escalating violence in the Middle East.

``This should mean that the strike is over and greater availability of spot crude on the market,'' Simon Games-Thomas at NM Rothschild & Sons in Sydney told Reuters by telephone.



Black Blade: It appears that some expect oil supply from Venezuela to resume right away and therefore petroleum prices are plummeting.
Black Blade
Venezuela President Chavez Reportedly Resigns

CARACAS , Venezuela -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has resigned and is reportedly at the airbase La Carlota downtown Caracas , Globovision network reported early Friday morning.

The official announcement is expected any time now, Globovision reported. It remains unclear whether Chavez is giving himself in to military authorities or is trying to leave the country. Footage shows about a dozen cars circling around the airport and some small private jets are stationed at the airbase.


Black Blade: I am sure it was a "voluntary" resignation too.
RobotGuy
Blah blah blah!! !! !!!

Jin-Yin
Where's it going?

Looking at the recent upswing in gold, one has to ponder a contrarian contrary view to be the devil's advocate to future price action. Reasons to question any further increases in price:

-Miner49er's excellent analysis of how the paper markets could play out in the very near future and effect prices. Great thinking and illumination of a possible trail marker. Thanks!

-No alternative to the dollar, yet, which will only strengthen the mighty value midget in the short term against other currencies with all the turmoil in the world. Even after Argentina's turn at being sucked dry due to dollar hegemony, they still covet the dollar. Still no bad taste and maybe soon twice bitten.

-The press is giving more attention to the metal because of recent performance.

Sell the news, buy the rumor.

-EWI's Elliot count.

-In the short term goldbugs see the price shooting up to 320 or resistance.

When the majority thinks the same, they are usually wrong.

Obviously the WAT, M.E., the dollar and stock market's overvaluation, account deficit, debt private and public, Japan and CHINA's influence, market manipulations, derivatives, etc., all could do wonders to increase the price in the short term as well. Having said that these things take time to work out and in the interim we could see a correction in gold indexes as well as the price of the metal.

Just because the markets start to tumble in the next few months doesn't mean investors around the world will turn to gold. Look how long it took the Japanese to catch on. If the gold price were to move in tandem with the markets down, then for sure investors would stay away mainly due to lack of understanding of what value is. Knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing, so the saying goes.

The best thing about this contrarian contrary view is that we could possibly be given even more time to accumulate at even better prices. Hope springs eternal that the day of reckoning is put off just a little longer.
Jin-Yin
The Marvel That Is Capitalism
http://www.mises.org/fullarticle.asp?control=929&month=43&title=The+Marvel+That+Is+Capitalism&id=43If credit expansion, protectionism, and government spending were a path to prosperity, mankind would have long ago created heaven on earth. But the politicians engaged in this activities have to contend with reality, and the reality is that economic forces in society must be mutually sustaining. To have production and borrowing, there must be savings, which only occur when people forestall consumption today to prepare for tomorrow, and in investment that pans out in the form of consumption. Absent such conditions, economic growth lacks a foundation in reality and turns to dust when economic conditions change.

. . . .

Prior to our own bubble, we saw a similar situation in Asia, and, before that, in Mexico. In each of these cases, what we find is not market failure but a failure of the system of money and credit to provide reliable signals for investors and lenders. It is helpful to think of the interest rate as a price signal, so that Fed attempts to drive down rates simply mis-price credit. In the same way that a government price ceiling would cause overconsumption of any good�whether eggs, gas, or electricity--distortions of the interest rate encourage overconsumption of credit.

It is not surprising, then, that we are seeing a spending boom take place today among consumers even as producers are pulling back in many areas. Certain sectors have prospered since the reflation began after mid-2001. Housing, in particular, has boomed all out of proportion to what it would otherwise do in a free market. If any sector is being set up for a fall today, it is this one.

. . . .

His next book, from 1919, sought to defend the idea that governments ought to be small and geographically limited, for the sake of social peace. Next, in 1920 and 1922, he proved that socialism could not work as an economic system because it abolished property rights in capital and thus destroyed the system of profit and loss that allows for economic calculation. His methodological and business cycle writings from the 1930s are some of the most profound in the history of the social sciences. Finally in 1940 and 1949, he produced what is quite possibly the finest product of any economist in history: his monumental treatise called Human Action.

Incidentally, he wrote most of his treatise in exile in Geneva from his native Austria. The invading German armies deemed his work dangerous. They entered Mises's apartment and looted his files and papers. Mises, you see, was against socialism, whether Bolshevik or Nazi. Reflect on that and begin to understand the absurdity of calling communism leftist and Nazism rightest, as if they were polar opposites. They are both varieties of the very opposite of freedom itself.
Graefin
@robotguy...
Graefin
MAHENDRA SHARMA:
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/Gold%20prices.htm"GOLD PRICES

I had already predicted about Gold for next 3 months that it will reach $350. I again predict about Gold that prices will keep on rising for next 20 days.

On my flash news on 12-3-2002, I had predicted that Silver prices will move upwards. Again for Silver I see a great future and rise in prices from 22-03-2002 until July 2003. I also foresee some downfall of prices in from now and July 2003, but overall prices for Silver will move upwards.

Check for further predictions on Gold and Silver very soon on my website."

Interesting!!
-Gr�fin :)



Canuck
@ sector
From your earlier post:

"(2) the US Federal Reserve has directed its two main bullion banks [CitiBank and Morgan] to cut their gold derivatives by 50% and 70% respectively"

I missed this gem!! Has this been verified? (Link/source)

TIA

Canuck.
Graefin
Liebe Miner...
Danke f�r deine Antwort, aber dein Deutsch ist besser als mein; ich die Bedeutung schribend erhielt. (Not to worry...will have mein deutscher Ehemann �bersetzt das restliche!!)
Peace!
- Gr�fin :)
Waverider
Germany's Schroeder takes hair battle to court
http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&eid=1103408Snippit:
"German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is due in court today to deny that he dyes his dark-brown hair and to try to stop a news agency repeating such suggestions.

DDP news agency quoted an image consultant as saying the 58-year-old chancellor would be more believable if he did not cover up his greying temples, prompting Schroeder's lawyer Michael Nesselhauf to issue an angry denial and demand a retraction.

The conservative opposition has jumped on the affair to cast doubt on Schroeder's credibility. "A chancellor who dyes his hair will also dress up statistics," said Karl-Josef Laumann, a member of parliament for the Christian Democrats."

Waverider: And that's the colourful political news out of Hamburg...thoughts re: implications for the Euro? :) Cheers!
Jon
Graefin msg # 73233 re: Mahendra Sharma
He also predicted big rise in nasdaq tech shares! You undoubtedly noticed what happened yesterday.
Waverider
Chavez Exit From Venezuela May Weaken OPEC Control
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APLbEvxSvQ2hhdmV6Snippit:
"The ouster of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez after a three-year rule may also mean an end to OPEC's ability to keep oil prices high, analysts and industry executives said.

Chavez, who early this morning heeded calls by protesters, political rivals and the military to step down, had reined in Venezuelan oil output in an agreement with other OPEC nations. That agreement helped rally oil prices after they reached a 12- year low of $10 a barrel in 1998. Crude oil surged to $37.80 in 2000 and now fetches about $25.

``The terrible thing about Chavez is that not only did he reduce production, but he also cut investment and reduced our production capabilities,'' said Juan Carlos Sosa, president of the Grupo Petroleo YV, an oil industry consultant in Caracas.

``We've lost about a million barrels of capacity in the last 3 years under Chavez. One of the first decisions a new government should do is repeal the new hydrocarbons law.''

``We have to increase our market share in the U.S. and become its No. 1 supplier again,'' Sosa said. ``After Chavez we will be in a very good position to do that.''

Waverider: It appears that a new government may break from Opec quotas. Meanwhile, Chavez apparently is under arrest at an army base in Caracas and may be criminally charged for the deaths of civilians during yesterday's riots.
Topaz
Late night musings
OK, we all accept TPTB "fiddle" with POG.....of late all the momentum is coming out of NY. Is this just another "flag" supposedly to indicate "mild" inflation in the US of A?
The Washington agreement saw POG rise to mid US$330's....."HELLO".....no-one got blown up.....no-ome threatened Oil embargos....no-one but we could give a damn!
.....and yet NOW, the Physical (reportedly!!) is being gobbled up en-masse......Interesting times indeed..
Graefin
Of course I did, Jon...
But I don't trust Nasdaq right now! Guess we'll have to "wait and see" what happens over the next 45 (?) days!
Graefin
Amer Kanzler Schroder!
hehehehehe!
Rock
Gold Futures posted on Squawk Box
I foung it pretty interesting this morning for the first tine in 5 years that I have been following the stock market on CNBC I noticed Gold futures posted along with the Dow and Nasdaq futures. It thrills me to see gold is finally getting the attention it deserves. Good day to all!

Rock
Topaz
Trust@graefin
(sorry if the spelling is crook "G")
This matter of trust is of consern...today on the radio, the (normally) matter-of-fact commentator indicated he was "VERY" sceptical of the Dow uptick Wednesday and said yesterdays retreat was to be expected!...also, those who watch CNBCAsia will be familiar with their commentators continual reference to "public" buying proppiong up the Japanese Bourse when it needs it most.
I think the public is starting to smell the Rat that has been stinking out these halls for several Years now.
RobotGuy
Looks like I didn't read mental note to self a few days ago, oh well, good thing I didn't write more while hammered out of my tree. Graefin!!! Good to see you back!
RobotGuy
POG
Merely ripples in a rising high tide.
RobotGuy
I better get my lazy backside into work before I get canned!
Graefin
Danke, 'BotGuy...
Ich bin Zur�ck!
Buena Fe
POO + Opec + Ven. = US desperation (a portion there of)
I wonder which covert US agency will be found out (20 yrs from now) to have sponsored Chavez's ouster?

System seven is in freefall (judgement), system eight marches on. Gold IS Precious!
RobotGuy
DOW
Merely turbulence fluttering the wings of a Lancaster in an engineless nosedive.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
In bookstores for $14.95 (plus tax). Get it here for ONLY $5.95 ($3 postage)!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Siochain
Supposedly Middle East War/attacks planned for end of April
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=27203Parts:"The minute Secretary of State Colin Powell departs the region empty-handed, Washington's Middle East foes � Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinians � are set to initiate a coordinated military action with a view to reducing the United States to a powerless spectator.

Powell meets Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat today and tomorrow. His chances of bringing them anywhere near a cease-fire are generally rated nil � hence the pessimistic scenario seen by DEBKAfile's sources
...
While openly slamming Sharon, the Bush team has not missed the burgeoning operational partnership between Palestinians and Hezbollah and their combined buildup with Iraq and Iran � with Syria's tacit blessing � for military action. This bloc's first goal is to ward off a U.S. military assault on Iraq, while at the same time rocking pro-American Arab regimes by rousing violent anti-government demonstrations in their cities.

After that, according to DEBKAfile's U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources, Iran and Iraq mean to stoke Middle East tensions, making sure that they strike first before America fires a shot in its campaign against Baghdad. This strike is expected to take the form of an Iraqi missile attack on Israel.

Yesterday, hours before Powell's landing in Israel, the Iranian foreign minister turned up in Damascus. At about the same time, Sharon was telling a Fox TV interviewer that Arafat is keeping an open channel of communication to Saddam, whom he accused of smuggling weapons to the Palestinians through Jordan and across the Dead Sea.

The point of maximum danger will arrive at the end of April. The countdown towards that moment begins Monday when the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards start a large-scale five-day military exercise called "Wadat," or "Unity" in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian naval and air units will rehearse the seizure of the strategic Straits of Hormuz and impose a mock blockade on Gulf oil shipping bound for Western and Japanese ports through the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. They also will practice amphibious landings on the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb in the mouth of Straits of Hormuz.

About 50,000 soldiers � paratroops, marines, naval commandos and members of amphibious armored units � are gathered at the port of Bandar Abbas, with a fleet of landing craft, fast missile boats, submarines and aircraft at their disposal. These units will rehearse the forcible seizure of the Gulf islands.

Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei and its president, Mohammed Khatami, will use the occasion of a visit to the troops to announce Iran is joining the Iraqi oil embargo announced this week against pro-Israeli countries, primarily the United States. They also will place the Iranian units exercising in the Gulf on supreme alert to meet any regional military threat, explaining that the ongoing Palestinian-Israel showdown may call for a response.

According to DEBKAfile's military sources, Iran last week secretly opened a permanent military liaison office in Baghdad to align Iranian military movements in the Gulf with the Iraqi general staff. Iraq also granted passage through its airspace to Iranian military aircraft heading to Syria. The Tehran-Damascus route via Iraqi air space has been operating now for nearly a month. Iranian military flights have been granted landing and refueling rights at Iraqi air bases in case Syria or Hezbollah come under Israeli or U.S. attack.

There are angles to the new partnership between the former foes, Iraq and Iran, aside from the use of Baghdad as a coordination center or transit point for Iranian military flights to Damascus.

DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources describe the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut-Palestinian bloc's alignment as planned down to the smallest detail.

Iran will wrap up its military exercise and declare an oil embargo � as arranged � after which Iranian transports will begin ferrying ammunition, shells and missiles to Hezbollah, via the military section of Damascus international airport. These deliveries will keep the daily war against Israel well fueled. At the same time, the Palestinians will step up their suicide attacks against Israel, either directly or with outside help.

When the violence has been wound to its highest pitch, Iraq will step in with a dramatic and dangerous move. From April 24, Israel stands in grave danger of an Iraqi missile attack, launched for the sake of saving the Palestinians. This threat was signaled by Qusai Hussein, Saddam's son and commander of the elite Republican Guards, when he declared on Wednesday: "The Iraqi people is ready to fight Israel alongside the Palestinians, but its geographical location makes it hard to join the struggle. � Still, the Jews know that their doom will come from Babylon."

Now more than ever, with the Palestinians in dire straits, Iraqi leaders must make good on their high-flown pledges of aid, or else the Palestinian option in which Saddam has invested and held as a reserve resource will be dissipated. The level of rhetoric has escalated in the last couple of days. Sharon appears to be aware of Saddam's decision. He therefore is laying stress on exposing Arafat's operational links with Hezbollah and with Baghdad.

The top item on the agenda of his talks today with secretary Powell is most likely to be how Israel will retaliate for an Iraqi missile strike or, put another way, the strength of Israel's deterrent.


Siochain...I think we know what Israel's deterrent might be!!! Also Debka is an Israel voice but there are independent stories of the Iran build-up and exercises....and the rhetoric in the Middle East is getting to extremes...did you see the Saudi telethon for families of the "martyrs"


Also intersting that Senator Frist came out yesterday with the following:"
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Every American home should have one, says one of the U.S. Senate's foremost bioterror experts -- a well-stocked "safe room" where people can seek shelter when the next biological or chemical attack strikes.


For Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist, the first medical doctor in the Senate since 1928, preparing for such an attack is an option no family can afford to ignore. It is a question of being prepared when, not if, America is hit by another biological attack like last year's anthrax scare, he said.


Siochain/Peace...and prayer







YGM
Back to Gold Stuff.....
From Business Day....Final straw for gold hedge

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NO MATTER how it is dressed up, the news that AngloGold is cutting back its hedge book ought to be the final straw that breaks the back of the argument in favour of hedging.
AngloGold has undoubtedly been one of the most successful gold companies in the world at managing its hedge book. For AngloGold to effectively acknowledge that this time it has missed the boat shows just how difficult these balls are to juggle.

The evidence will become clearer in time, but the betting seems to be that AngloGold's hedge book will show that its achieved sales price is below the average gold price for the period for the first time in nine years. It has been a remarkable run.

But in terms of the logic of a true hedging strategy, it should be welcomed as simply inevitable. The whole point of hedging ought to be to smooth out the commodity price bumps. Hence, gold companies ought to be giving away a little in the good times in order to be more secure in the bad times.

But all too often this is not the way they see it. Gold companies want (and investors expect) the hedging strategy to be benefitial to earnings in both the good times and the bad times. But if this is the philosophy, these companies are not hedging their position, they are just gambling.

The whole point about hedging is that it simply delays the inevitable. In times of steep downturns, a partly delayed earnings dive may be very useful. But when the gold price jumps 10% and the rand drops 40% investors should expect to be hurt if they invest in hedged companies.

A tale of distrust

THE private e-mails of former star Merrill Lynch IT analyst Henry Blodget, recently ousted from the company with a $12m parachute, make hilarious reading. While Blodget was rating IT companies either as buys or holds, his private e-mails were referring to the same companies as "dogs" and worse, adding that certain companies were "going a lot lower" and were "powder kegs about to explode". The New York State attorney-general has now won a court order forcing Merrill's to overhaul its research on companies that are also investmentbanking clients. Since investment banking draws huge fees, analysts have always been under pressure to present a positive view of companies that are either actual or prospective clients.

A whole range of other Wall Street companies is also now being investigated. The attorneygeneral is under huge pressure to intervene as large numbers of investors blame Wall Street analysts for misleading them into buying massively overvalued IT stocks during the IT boom.

To most investors, the fact that analysts tend to be overoptimistic will come as absolutely no surprise at all. At almost all times, whether the market is part of a bull or bear trend, in almost all regions of the world, the average number of buys actually published by analysts outnumber sells, sometimes by a factor of almost 10 to one. Blodget has conceded that the internet group in Merrill's never issued a "reduce" or "sell" recommendation on any stock.

What makes the current situation different is the spectacular nature of the IT boom and bust. The bursting of the speculative bubble has left many investors badly hurt, creating a pool of resentful investors eagerly looking around for someone to blame.

For this very reason, the complaints about the supposedly misleading calls of research analysts need to be taken with a pinch of salt just as the calls themselves are often taken with a pinch of salt. Most asset management houses buy research from a host of brokers, but they still do their own research as well. That asset managers don't trust the research of their own colleagues really tells the whole story. The proposed solution suggested by the state attorney-general that analysts should clarify whether their firm is involved in corporate finance work for a stock may be sort-of useful, but it will hardly be a wide-ranging foolproof method of enforcing objectivity.

One other suggestion (made not by the attorney-general) is that heads of research should ensure that the total proportion of buy and sell recommendations is loosely aligned with the direction of the market. But this is a rather forced method of imposing mathematical objectivity from the top rather than allowing it to emerge out of the research itself.

At least in the US, ordinary investors might get to know what these calls are because there is a mentality of information sharing that is entirely absent in SA. In SA, analysts jealousy guard not only their research but also their bottom-line assessments, arguing that they sell this information to institutional clients.

This is true, but it is also convenient as it means these actual calls are never open to public scrutiny. And locally, this is where the problem really lies. If analysts' reputations were at stake, maybe we would see more honest assessments and less snuggling up to management.

Market Watch

THE JSE made a solid stab at a record level, but seemed to get depressed when it missed and closed just in the red. Bonds firmed while the rand was steady.

Associate editor Tim Cohen edits The Bottom Line. E-mail news and views to bottomline@bdfm.co.za
Apr 12 2002 12:00:00:000AM Business Day 1st Edition

Friday
12 April 2002








YGM
Further Hedge Closing....
News24.comHarmony Gold shuts
Randfontein hedge book

Johannesburg - Harmony Gold Company said on Friday that it has closed the balance of the Randfontein hedge book at a net cost after tax of R125 million.

Harmony said that the closure cost was financed from existing cash resources, and will not have an impact on the company's financial results because it has been accounted for previously.

"The closure of the Randfontein hedge book is a continuation of Harmony's strategy of being unhedged," Harmony financial director Frank Abbott said in a statement.

All the remaining forward sales contracts and call options totalling 490 000 ounces have been closed. In addition, as a result of the higher gold price, the company closed a further 220 000 ounces of forward purchases.



YGM
Gold Clearing Stats.
www.fururesource.comODJ LBMA: Gold Clearing Stats Dn 13% In Mar Vs Feb To 17.4 Mln Oz

By David Elliott
London, April 12 (OsterDowJones) - Gold and silver clearing statistics
fell in March, the London Bullion Market Association said Friday, with silver
dropping more sharply than gold as prices for both metals were confined to
tight ranges.
Gold ounces transferred fell from a daily average of 20.1 million to 17.4
million or 13% from February to March while value, based on an average fixing
of $294.0550 decreased a daily average of $5.1 billion.
The number of transfers also dropped to an average of 714 a day from 822
in February, the LBMA said.
They reported gold clearing statistics fell year-on-year with ounces
transferred down by 39% and value 32% lower while the number of transfers fell
25% from a daily average of 954 to 714.
Silver ounces transferred fell 28% to a record low daily average of 77.9
million, the LBMA said. Based on an average fixing of $4.5322, the value of
silver transferred also decreased to a fresh daily low at $0.35 billion while
the number of transfers fell by 7% to a daily average of 239.
Measured year-on-year, silver statistics were again sharply lower, they
said. Silver ounces transferred and value were 40% lower and the number of
transfers fell by 8%.

---
David Elliott, OsterDowJones, (+44-20) 7979 5750,
delliott@osterdowjones.com

FSN44798 MTC FINANCIAL METALS
2002-04-12 11:00:00 UTC
^^^^^
YGM
7 Ways to Corral The Gold Bull....Johm Myers.....
From the Daily Reckoning.....YGM Comments....Note he picks Physical Bullion as preferred 1st choice. Coins in point...But then why would storage be a problem for all those wonderful Dory Bars. Use your own imagination.....
****
Seven Ways to Corral the Gold Bull
"...Gold is the ultimate financial lifeboat. Throughout the ages, princes and paupers have used it as money and turned to it for security. And it has withstood every test: war, revolution, hyperinflation and depression. It's the only "real" money, not subject to the promise of or recall from any bank or pontiff, and it is universally accepted..."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


John Myers

Now is the time to accumulate gold investments. Of all the asset classes, none will fare better, with less risk, than gold and gold-related equities. After all, gold is quoted in U.S. dollars. If the dollar falls, the price of gold invariably rises. And unlike currencies, gold is no one else's liability. Demand for the yellow metal is rising quickly - so, if you want to get in on potential big profits, you have to act now.

There is certainly no shortage of choices when it comes to investing in gold. I've listed seven different opportunities below.

Physical gold - Bullion is the ultimate financial lifeboat. Throughout the ages, princes and paupers have used it as money and turned to it for security. And it has withstood every test: war, revolution, hyperinflation and depression. Gold is the only "real" money, not subject to the promise of or recall from any bank or pontiff. It is universally accepted. Unfortunately, gold is a dead asset. Instead of collecting a rate of return, you actually have to pay to have it stored. It is also subject to widespread gaps between the bid and ask price. The best way to own physical gold is in coin form, preferably 1-ounce South African Kruggerands, Canadian Maple Leafs or American Eagles.

Gold mutual funds - If you don't want to own physical gold and you don't have the time or the inclination to study individual stocks, a mutual fund is a terrific way to go. As with any mutual fund, a pillar to success is the fund's management. Look for a fund whose managers try to stay away from companies with a large hedge position (locking in future sales at fixed prices). Two of my favorites are American Century Global Gold and the Tocqueville Gold Fund. I'll have more to say about these two a little later on.

Senior gold companies - In a bull market, senior gold stocks are a terrific investment. They offer solid returns and let you sleep easy. The reason is pretty straightforward. Senior golds have the best management, technology and reserves. But just as a $10 a barrel increase in the price of crude doesn't have a large impact on the price of a multinational oil company, neither does a jump in gold prices manifest itself on blue-chip producers the way it does on junior golds. Also keep in mind that several senior gold companies hedge future production. These companies don't benefit from sharp increases in gold prices to the extent that unhedged companies do. One last thought: senior golds are best bought after gold has begun an upward move in earnest. For information on a good senior gold company, read my recommendation of Newmont Mining.

Gold ADRs - Huge fortunes were made in the 1970s and 1980s by astute investors that bought the American Depositor Receipts (ADRs) of South African gold companies. An ADR is a certificate held by U.S. banks and represents a specific number of shares of a foreign stock. ADRs are traded on U.S. stock exchanges, are widely available and have a dollar-denominated price. And just like a stock, ADRs may pay dividends.

Junior gold stocks - These are smaller, usually less established gold and mineral companies. Most juniors are pure exploration plays. And much more often than not they come up empty-handed. As a result, junior golds are for sophisticated investors. You should find a broker or advisor that understands that market and who can partner with you in such an investment. Quite simply, these are rich man, poor man stocks - on any given day you can be one or the other. The profits from junior stocks can be so big that when you hit it right, two thoughts pop to mind: (1) I've made a ton of money, and (2) how much tax do I to have to pay?

For example, in March 2001 I started tracking Metallica Resources, a small mining company with interests in Mexico and Chile. Selling for 19 cents Canadian, 2,000 shares would have cost you just C$380 (not including commissions, etc., of course). In mid-March the company released some good news, and the stock promptly doubled. By the time we sold it in January 2002, the stock was up to C$1.46, a 668% gain. And 2,000 shares would have been worth C$2,920. The junior gold universe is always changing - see the most recent issue of Outstanding Investments for my most up-to-date junior gold picks.

Gold options - This is the line between investing and speculating. You can buy options on physical gold or gold stocks. Options can be a little bit complicated, however, and the odds are also against option buyers (three out of every four options bought expire worthless). The big enemy when you own an option is time. You have to reach your strike price by a specific date or your option expires worthless. Options can also be very volatile, able to take off or plummet very quickly. Still, options provide terrific leverage, and the most you can lose when you buy an option is the price you paid for it. Best of all, they give you an opportunity to earn homerun profits.

Gold futures - I have one rule when it comes to playing the futures market. Don't. Yes, fortunes can be made...but they can just as easily be lost. The methods mentioned above are much safer ways to play gold. And their profit potential can be just as good.

End........
TownCrier
Two updates 'INSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS'
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/index.htmlFrom the Index URL above, you can access Mr. Jensen's latest two commentaries.

HEADLINE: Only small fish caught in U.S.-Cuba trade net

(Excerpt) -----Almost unnoticed in President Bush's war on terrorism is his parallel war on those who trade with Cuba. ....The case has caused a public outcry in Canada, where members of Parliament accuse the United States of trampling on Canadian sovereignty.--------

---and---

HEADLINE: Sharon's defiance of Bush is clear -- so is the danger

(Excerpt) -------The entire Islamic world is in an uproar over U.S. support for what Muslims see as a genocidal Israeli war against the Palestinians. Even Morocco's King Mohammed, who has not allowed an anti-American demonstration in two years, was forced to give in to a million marchers carrying signs reading "Sharon assassin. Bush his dog."
+
All the region's pro-American rulers feel universally threatened by their anti-American subjects. Unless Bush reins in Sharon, they warn, the "Bulldozer" will succeed where Osama bin Laden failed: forcing us into a war of civilizations against 1.2 billion Muslims.-------

(See URL for access)
RobotGuy
I keep hearing (reading) "Bush said get out now", but I still haven't heard an 'or else'
Or else what? What are you going to do Mr. President?

Siochain, very compelling article. I printed it out for a couple of co-workers, one said it was very "Clancy" sounding. I guess we'll know the reality of the DEBKA intelligence if we see an Iranian embargo.

Thank - you!

Happy Friday all!

RoboLoser.
Black Blade
Justice probes Computer Associates
http://www.msnbc.com/news/737702.asp
Accounting crackdown focuses increasingly on top officers

Snippit:

Also, Charles Neimeier, chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission's enforcement division, discusses the agency's rising number of accounting investigations on CNBC Friday.

April 12 � The federal crackdown on aggressive accounting is setting its sights on more top executives, with the management of Computer Associates International Inc. among the latest to come under scrutiny. A joint Justice Department/Securities and Exchange Commission probe of the big software maker is focused on whether it improperly boosted its financial results to help produce $1 billion in stock awards for the company's top three executives in 1998, say people familiar with the matter.

Black Blade: Enrons everywhere one looks. Wall Street is more powerful than even the Mafia ever thought possible. BTW, look at that curious last half hour push on the DOW.
TownCrier
Euro enlargement, HEADLINE: Sweden, Britain in ongoing EMU talks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020412/eu_sweden_britain_euro_1.htmlFrom article:
PITEA, Sweden, April 12 (Reuters) - Sweden and Britain are consulting each other regularly on membership in the European Union's single currency but have not discussed coordinated action toward that end, Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson said on Friday.

Morgan Stanley put the likelihood of Sweden joining the euro during the forthcoming four-year parliamentary term at 75 percent.
----(click link for more)----

Always bear in mind, each gain for the euro is also an incremental nudge of the dollar toward the rubbish heap of history's fallen currencies. Whatever your currency unit may be, protect your purchasing power with the real wealth savings of gold.

R.
Black Blade
S&P says debt default rate higher than in last recession
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3WLH9YXZC&live=true&tagid=IXLTEW9YICC⊂heading=bonds

Snippit:

The rate of corporate debt defaults in the first quarter of this year rose above that seen in the recession of the early 1990s, credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's said on Friday.

The agency said 94 companies defaulted on $33.6bn of rated corporate bonds in the quarter, and warned the outlook for the rest of the year was not much better.


Black Blade: The Pimps and Trolls on Wall Street and in the media keep spouting off that "all is well" like the traffic cop at the blood splattered crime scene shooing away spectators and saying "nothing to see here people". They can't pull the wool over every ones eyes. The recession continues to deteriorate. In a word � "Grim".

Also, the more I read about the Internet gurus of yesterday (Henry Blodget, Mary Meeker, etc.) it reads like the script of the movie "Boiler Room") � strange indeed.
Black Blade
US rumour hits techs and telecoms
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,682999,00.html
Market forces

Snippit:

Leading telecom and tech stocks got a pasting in London and New York yesterday caused by fears of the imminent collapse of Janus Capital Management, the sixth-largest US mutual fund company. A spokeswoman for Janus in Denver, Colorado, denied that the company was liquidating its positions, saying "daily our portfolio has trading activity".

But dealing rooms on both sides of the Atlantic were awash with rumours that many stocks are about to hit the market from Janus, which alongside its 5.6% stake in collapsed energy firm Enron has stakes in many London-listed, blue-chip tech and telecom companies.


Black Blade: It may be true as trading volume spiked on Wednesday and Thursday. Very few people or institutions have that capability to move markets. Janus is one of those few entities.
Black Blade
The Outlook: Profits -- and Pessimism
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/apr2002/nf20020411_7522.htm
Economists' forecasts are generally upbeat, but many frontline execs continue to see no return to high growth any time soon

Snippit:

Don't talk to business executives about last year's mild downturn. Although many economists don't even qualify the slump as a true recession, for corporations the past year has been nothing less than a disaster. After nine straight years of increases, operating profits for the companies of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index plunged 31% last year, in what has been called the worst corporate slump since the end of World War II.


Black Blade: Many of the so-called "economists" on Wall Street who were calling for a recovery in the second half are now calling for the recovery next year. Yeah right, this should instill a lot of confidence. It appears that many companies have not warned this quarter (yet) as some have decided to ask for time to "restate" earnings. The sweeping Enronitis and Andersenitis plagues are spreading across corporate America as the SEC and Dept. of Justice begin to sharpen their axes � heck, even the AG of New York city is getting in on the fun as he goes after Merrill Lynch. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Citibank over fraud charges. "Interesting Times"

YGM
CLOSE CALL.....
For what little stability remains left...Palestinian Attack on Powell Motorcade Foiled
DEBKAfile Special Report
12 April: Israeli security foiled a Palestinian terrorist attempt to hit the motorcade driving US secretary of state Colin Powellfrom Ben Gurion Airport to Jerusalem Thursday night, April 12, shortly after he landed. The Secretary was accompanied by Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres and heads of the US embassy.
Just before 9 pm IT, two hours before the US Secretary arrived, a Palestinian Red Crescent ambulance was stopped by a hidden Israeli security patrol near the gas station on the Modi�in-Jerusalem Highway 443. The driver and his mate had all the necessary permits for transporting a dead Palestinian policeman to the Gaza Strip. However, since Yasser Arafat's confinement in Ramallah, security has been intensified on all traffic coming from the direction of the Palestinian town, in case of an attempt to smuggle him out. In any case, in a war situation, in which passage from the West Bank to the Gaza Strip has been suspended, all permits are checked for forgeries.
The ambulance was therefore opened up and searched carefully. Hidden under the corpse was a large supply of explosives and a suicider's bomb belt.
According to some of DEBKAfile's sources, the two Palestinians admitted under questioning that they had planned to pull the ambulance up on the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv expressway, the route taken later by the Powell motorcade. One of the men was to stay in the vehicle, while the other strapped on the bomb belt and hid in some roadside bushes. When the secretary's car drove by, the ambulance was rigged to explode. The second bomber was then supposed to leap into the milling crowd of officials and security men and blow himself up.
At 22:07 IT, the booby-trapped Red Crescent ambulance was blown up in a controlled explosion, creating a bang loud enough to frighten dwellers in a broad radius and start the rumor of a rocket attack. Israel security is now investigating the provenance of the Red Crescent ambulance and the official permits.
________________________________________
Black Blade
Another Suicide Bomber

I don't know all the details yet, however, a female suicide bomber strolled up to a busy market and detonated killing self and at least 6 Israelis in Jerusalem. I think that all Sharon has done by invading Palestine is to create many more recruits for Hamas.

This situation in the MIddle East is getting out of hand and threatens the stability of the region. Hamas fighters are launching rockets into Israel from Lebanon, Saddam Hussein is paying destitute families whose children walk off as human explosives, the peoples of the Arab and Persian World are rioting and demonstrating against the Israeli invasion, and the US State Department is warning that Americans avoid the region due to kidnapping and terrorist threats, and the Powell-Sharon meeting is postponed. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Boilermaker
Taxpayers get stuffed by LTV Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020412/financial_ltv_ross_2.htmlsnippet;
Once among the biggest steelmakers, LTV sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2000, listing $2.2 billion in assets and $4.4 billion in liabilities, largely worker pension and health benefits.

LTV was among the 25 domestic steel makers to declare bankruptcy since 1998 in the face of stiff foreign imports and high benefit costs for retired workers.

Under the terms of the deal, ISG will acquire none of LTV's $2.2 billion in unfunded pension liabilities, said Ross in an interview. The U.S. government Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. said March 29 it would take over three underfunded pension plans covering about 82,000 workers and retirees of LTV.

The pension release and new steel tariffs recently announced by President Bush will allow the plants to run profitably, he said.

``We believe the combination of the new tariff structure that was imposed and all of the new arrangements - the shedding of legacy costs, work rules and health benefits - will make us quite competitive,'' said Ross in an interview.

Comment,
In view of the "strong dollar policy" of the US Treasury it seems that the only sensible option for US steel companies is to declare bankruptcy and get out from under their unmanageable pension and health care costs. This process will probably spread to other industries as a means to dump financial burdens on taxpayers. A stock market break will decimate pension fund assets and further exacerbate the problem. Looks like a house of cards coming down.
USAGOLD
Black Blade. . . .On the possible Janus collapse:
Do we have an example of a mutual fund collapsing before?

What happens to investor funds? Few people know that most mutual funds have a clause in their contract which allows them to deliver stock -- any stock (at their choosing) -- to the mutual fund shareholder instead of cash upon liquidation. Believe it or not, I'd be willing to lay a wager that a good 25% of the people who have their money with mutul funds believe the are protected by the FDIC. Over the years, we've warned consistently about this sort of thing, but most did not believe that in the New America a mutual fund could collapse. Now this nearly surreal story published by a very credible newspaper -- The Guardian (UK).

An indredible story developing. . . . . .

Siochain
@USAGOLD
There is another concern re mutual funds...I heard that some such as Fidelity and Putnam may have dropped their default insurance due to high premiums...and that Vanguard was considering doing so.

Anyone who has a mutual fund ...or actually any brokerage account...should check to see exactly what their insurance coverage is ....limits etc

Gold looks better and better!
Belgian
The Middle East Disaster....
Israel having / claiming the right to imitate the US modus operandi in Afghanistan (and elsewhere), will boost zionism. Extermination of terror (Palestinians) and its protectors (Guld states). The US WAT has this nasty side effect of not being able to control Israel's actions and not in the least because of the large and influential american jewish community. DEBKA is interesting to such extent that Israel's manouevering can be read between the lines. And indeed, Arabian oil embargos/bloccades are suggested / outlined as to incite the western world (US/Europ) to come to their side without reserve.
Oil deliveries and the POO will decide into wich camp the western world will fall. Once a POO>35$ starts to bite...the Palestinian cause will become less sympathetic.
Arabian oil does know this phenomenon and will act accordingly with caution and specific timing. A progressive price rise can be combined with proportionate decline in output not to be compensated with Venezualan oil (or Russian) now again into the US grip after the organized putch (classic CIA-job/signature) ! We better not expect a 1974 scenario. Sept.11 has changed a lot and the last word on this drama hasn't been said.

In other words, ALL oil producers (and speculators) are not into this business for charity and will stealthly try to profit at maximum from the turmoil. There will be no lasting peace possible and therefore POO will constantly rise. A weak signal has been given by peeping out of the declining channel with POO=+27$ ! Consolidation around the 25$ (22$-?) zone. Or even a desperate attempt to lower POO for such a period as to comply with the projected 2002 average of + 18$ (???). Just for statistical reasons.

A positive break through (temporary peace) might come up with the acceptance of a UN/US peace corp. But this will be nefast for zionism and most probably not acceptable therefore.

TG : Forget about deflation ! No way ! Hyperinflation will Manifest itself as a raging bull, soon if not very soon !
CoBra(too)
Memory Black Out (not Blade)...
MK - even if the names of the major "player" escapes me now - #2 guy was infamous Robert Vesco-, I'm thinking of the Fund of Funds pyramiding game of the 70's, which was a total disaster, though both guys have been sought after as prominet speakers at in their time ... the NY Harvard Club luncheons.

... And as history has it, it was in 1928, when the then Goldman Sachs Co. issued the first ever mutual fund at 98 $ per certificate. After the crash its NAV was 1.50$ and never ever recuperated over 2.50$.

Uh, oh fading memory - seems to come with age ... cb2
USAGOLD
Cobra. . .
Fading memory?!?

Remarkable recall is a more apt description.

Thanks.

One thing. . .In those days the public did not view mutual funds as a form of savings. Now many investors see mutual funds as akin to a savings account and many have their life savings, even retirement plans fully vested in these funds. I remember a financial story a few years back wherein one investor was not aware that mutual funds could go up or down. This sad soul believed that if you put $10, 000 in a mutual fund, there would always be $10,000 no matter what. One wonders how Janus and the others deal with that sort of thing on a daily basis. I know, some of you think I'm kidding. I'm not. The lack of sophistication is monumental in some cases, but one should expect that at the height of a stock mania. Alas, the Bear doesn't differentiate between those who know and those who don't -- the wasting disease raging through Colorado's deer population treats Bambi and fiercest buck alike. And it's deadly. . . .

I know I'm not telling you anything you don't already know probably better than I, CB. Just thought I'd focus on what might be at stake here with this Janus thing. Almost bought an Austrian antique display cabinet today -- extraordinary workmanship and state of preservation. Unfortunately, we don't have a place for it. On second thought, I'd rather own that than shares of one of the Janus Funds. Maybe we should revisit that idea as go from the age of paper, to the age of hard assets.
The CoinGuy
Michael, on Mutual Funds
In recent years, as prospectus' for mutual funds started adding "in kind", when speaking of redemptions, I didn't realize at first what this was, but later found out, that yes, you could be paid in shares, or shares in failing companies.

Later on alot of these mutual funds were adding dollar rolls, puts, options, reinvestments, swaps etc. This is when I decided to stay away from the funds all together, and have recommended my client, and friends do the same. We have utilized some of the short-term funds of one company, but watch it rather closely. These short term money markets aren't much better(short-term corporate paper in government funds etc).

With these mutual fund companies. Let the buyer beware, and "ALWAYS" read the prospectus, and any Statements of Information carefully.

Something to keep in mind, there was a buildup of mutual funds during the 1995-1999 period. I would imagine as this Bear market gathers steam, half of these funds will disappear as quickly as they got started. This has been the same case for each bear market I've been through. I haven't seen to many closings as of yet, this is one of my guages I use in a macro-environment to guage where we are and where were headed.

The environment I believe were headed into(FOA's scenario), we should start to see some of these companies begin to foldup shop. I'm looking for a 25% clipping as a minimum. This would be in line with past experience.

ALL: This is just my opinion, but I believe were passing the denial phase of this market, into realization of what could possibly lie ahead for the economy. It's no time to be careless with your finances, and as TownCrier has stated so many times in the past, a prudent diversification into the physical metal should be the order of the day, but time is getting precious.


Good luck to all,

The CoinGuy
CoBra(too)
MK - Bernie Cornfeld was the guy - (Fund of Funds)
Don't know what triggered the memory - though here it is!

Kind'a remarkable that you've mentioned old furniture. I'm having some of my antique pieces restored - one by one - mostly baroque - my favorite style - while I've sold all Biedermeier and Empire while moving to a smaller place - you'd presumably still call it 5 bedrooms and not pied a' terre - mein Herr :-)...

Also, there was some mention of "saving", or better keep up the delusion of stock market In-(f?)trusion in the context of BuBa's Welteke gold reserve collusion.

Getting more weird by the day - best cb2




YGM
Devils Derivative Dictionary, A-Z.
http://www.margrabe.com/Devil/DevilA_E.htmlHighly used by the many forms of "Paper Pushers" and CEO's of Shady Funds....
:o)
Black Blade
MK, CB2, � All �Mutual Fund Pitfalls
http://www.portfoliocr.com/specials/

Wow, I come back from a couple of hours in the gym and we have a discussion on something that really jogs ones memory. The early 1970's were some "Interesting Times" with a lot of intertwined stories from a Presidency in crisis, closing the Gold window, a criminal that stole a record sum from investors (a record at the time), family connections reaching as high as the Oval Office, etc.

Twenty years ago, Robert Vesco was known as the biggest swindler of the twentieth century and close friend of former US President Richard M. Nixon. Much a similar situation that has developed between former President Bill Clinton and fugitive financier Marc Rich. Vesco's mistake is that he was ahead of his time. Because of this he became a wanted man, at which point he figured he might as well get into drug smuggling. He started on his criminal career by stealing $224 million from Investors Overseas Services (IOS), a huge Swiss-based mutual fund empire founded by Bernard Cornfeld and looted by Vesco. He ultimately jaunted about the Caribbean and lived the good life (for a time).

Vesco fled U.S. authorities in 1971. He resided in Costa Rico until 1982 when authorities were closing in. He was allowed to come to Cuba in 1982 on humanitarian grounds, despite U.S. calls for his extradition. He is charged in the United States for bilking mutual funds investors of $224 million. In 1996 he was arrested in Cuba for fraud and illicit activity along with Donald Nixon (yep, Richard Nixon's nephew) and for conspiring along with Fidel Castro's nephew (who was not charged) who ran a medical research center called Labiofam to market a "wonder drug" called TX that would help a patient's immune system fight AIDS, cancer and other illnesses. Reportedly he bilked several investors of millions of dollars over this bogus drug. During this time he also ran a cocaine smuggling operation out of Cuba with friends in Cuba's military (for which he was not charged). A leopard truly never does change its spots!

Anyway, Janus Mutual Fund family is a completely different animal. They like many others got caught up in the Tech and Dot.com mania. I had holdings in the Janus Mercury Fund (fortunately I was lucky enough to get out early in 2000. I remember receiving a notice that fund manager Warren Lammert had changed his style and focus as other funds were gaining and the Mercury Fund was languishing. He had decided that there was a new paradigm shift and that valuations, etc. no longer mattered. I saw that as a Red Flag. I watched to the point of being too nervous about the unsustainable valuations and the humongous positions in many corporations. I finally bailed out. Another problem was that if one held more than one Janus Fund, they also had some serious overlap as they all held most of the same shares. If there was a corporate failure (Enron anyone?) then the situation would have been compounded several times as several Janus managers would be running for the exits at the same time to lighten their top heavy funds. That is exactly what appears to have happened more than once - OUCH!!!

I suspect that we will see much more of this in coming months. I still have some holdings in Fidelity's sector funds, a small amount in Pilgrim PM fund (formerly Lexington), and Eaton Vance World Health Services. I also have several holdings in profitable unhedged Gold miners, energy (and related) and utilities. I find that I am much better at picking stocks than so-called professionals. Nevertheless, "Mama raised no fool". I have a nice (about ~30%) position in physical Gold, Silver, and Platinum as portfolio insurance. As the foregoing commentary attests � anything can happen � even bad things can happen. Always best to be prepared.


- Black Blade


BTW, check out the link. Robert Vesco's old house is on the market. If I had the cash and the time - who knows.
CoBra(too)
Further to last post ... old. lazy brain ...
- omitted - saving the retirement funds by propping up SM's in my last post on Wetelke's remarks on potential BuBa gold sales ... remarkably similar to what is reportrd by the actions of PTB! ... cb2
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Donde es el presedente de Venezuela aqui? Crystalex yo
Who is the president of Venezuela here? Looks like KRY just did the high dive to 1.45 from Acapulco, but he landed in deep water. The warning was the Batman Top and the small red dribble afterwards. A batman top represents extreme rally failure that occured twice. It is inversive of the double bottom, big W that bulls like to buy on. It could go up like a dolphin or down like a fluke, Ashanti style. The long slow trek through the re-evaluation jungle. Notice what others thought, not a long red but a tall white. My gambling days are not over but I can find lower risk fish that won't leave me fried.
CoBra(too)
WOW- BB -
You're a real fountain of never ending wisdom and history.

Thank you for helping out my memory - and of course it was Bernie's IOS - another name I couldn't remember - though the issue of the FoF Management shares - in the end broke their neck.

BB - again thanks and kudos to you - youre quite a marvel -
cb2
MarkeTalk
DEBKA intelligence reports, Iraq & Iran, American & Israeli response
Today's posts and related links are some of the richest and most thought-provoking I have seen in a while. Perhaps it is the juxtaposition of news stories (fulfilling various past predictions) that is most telling. In short, things are definitely heating up in the Middle East.

If DEBKA's intelligence is to be believed, then there is no way the Israelis under Ariel Sharon will just sit there and wait for the Scud-B missiles full of anthrax or chemical weapons from Iraq to rain down on them. Let us remember Israel's response to Iran's growing nuclear threat in 1981 when Israeli F-16s bombed a nuclear reactor facility, which was already under construction, before it could become functional. I expect Israel to launch pre-emptive strikes against either Damascus or Baghdad or both, especially if Teheran is flying in materiel to Damascus for Hezbollah to attack Israel's northern border.

Add to the above scenario the April 11th prediction by Mahendra Sharma which was posted on our site today, saying gold was now ready to run to $350 per ounce. Without the advice of Mr. Sharma, I have been telling my clients the same thing and urging them to get positioned before the next bomb goes off,which will cause gold and silver to skyrocket.

Finally, while on the topic of predictions and disasters, last night I listened to part of the Art Bell interview of Sean David Morton. While calling himself a "sensitive", Sean David Morton is really nothing more than a technical remote viewer (which is the same as a glorified psychic). His track record of predicting events is so so.

Anyway, he spoke about his latest meeting with Pentagon officials who are using his psychic abilities to locate Ossam bin Laden, among other things. He spoke about the Russian transfer of red mercury technology (www.jrnyquist.com) to the Iraqis and the missing suitcase nukes and missing vials of smallpox from Russia. When asked by Art Bell what he saw for the rest of 2002, Mr. Morton said he foresaw a major event happening in Washington, D.C. on or around May 25th. While he could not be more specific, he said it would be a catastrophic terrorist event which would cause many people to leave the area.

My comment: Sean David Morton may indeed be sensing a second terrorist attack, especially in response to an Israeli and/or American first strike against Saddam Hussein. I would not discount his vision, even if his track record has been hit and miss recently. And from the pace of recent world events, cycles related to the sun and earth changes, and war cycles coupled with the fulfillment of biblical prophecy, I am more inclined to believe that we stand on the threshold of terrible times ahead.

So once again, I make another appeal to all my clients, past and present or future, to take a sobering look at their investment portfolios and to add at least 15% gold. By gold, I mean the real, "hard stuff" and not just mining stocks which are nothing more than paper claims on gold still in the ground. I will also make a prediction that someday--maybe sooner rather than later--you will get only a busy signal and you will not be able to get through to me on the telephone because one or more of the foregoing catastrophic events will have occurred.
A word to the wise is sufficient. All others (fools, morons and procrastinators) will suffer needlessly.

GC
Mr Gresham
Michael
"I'd be willing to lay a wager that a good 25% of the people who have their money with mutul funds believe the are protected by the FDIC"

Haven't gotten to mutual funds article (sounds good) yet; nap ahead (ZZZZ)

But, I had to explain to a client yesterday that buying stock in her favorite alternative bio-something company did NOT support the company, but merely exchanged assets with a previous buyer. Had to re-state it several different ways before the light went on...

My unfavorite pet peeves -- mutual fund ads that give a percentage historic return -- people compare those with bank CD rates advertised side-by-side. Sheesh! And, the advent of the Quicken financial "planner" program where you could plug in your desired stock return and "plan" when your golden years were to begin. "Oh, I think I'll be conservative and only pick 9%." Yeah, right.
Black Blade
First Quarter Earnings Worse than Expected
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Another notable fact this week is deepening profit recession. Earnings, which were expected to be bad this quarter, are turning out to be much worse. For most companies, the last year has been an earnings disaster. Estimates for operating profits fell by 31% last year for S&P companies. This makes 2001 the worst year for profits since the end of World War II. Despite what has been a difficult year for most companies, analysts remain bullish about the future. According to Thomson Financial/First Call, which tracks analyst estimates, profits are now expected to rise by 9% in the current quarter. This is the view from Wall Street and not Main Street. On Main Street, corporate executives who are on the front lines see the profit picture differently. Most execs don't buy Wall Street's rosy scenario. It is the same scenario they have been trying to peddle to investors for the last three years. They have been wrong every year.


Black Blade: As I have said before � in a word � "Grim". I completely agree. He also has a good take of the oil markets. First Venezuela's oil infrastructure is in disrepair and like the US, has not upgraded infrastructure or replaced declining reserves. It will take a lot of time to correct the mistakes made under the leadership of El Presidente.

Black Blade
The Last Wave - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Snippit:

While Americans no longer have an aversion to debt, they also unwittingly changed their aversion to risk. With the financial markets offering consistent double-digit returns for close to two decades, investors lost sight of the risk aspects associated with most financial instruments. Investor preference turned from safe investments like cash, bonds, and gold to equities and property. Fear of loss of assets or wealth has completely disappeared. The superior performance of financial assets these last two decades has completely anaesthetized investors from the pain of wealth destruction. It has been nearly three decades since the last real bear market of 1973-74. This absence of fear has been replaced by a myopic belief in paper assets, real estate, and a confidence in central banking to uphold these asset values -- a confidence that is historically misplaced.


Black Blade: Another good compilation of information from Jim Puplava. He puts together a good commentary on debt and credit in America. As I have before: Get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months of expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and get a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program started.

Siochain
So Will Gold Be Taken From Us Again???????
There is an excellent article on the Cafe that is thought provoking re confiscation especially the notion that gold has already been confiscated plus the view of the future where the author's position is that physical WILL be confiscated in the future...we should do some serious thing about this issue IMO....By the way, I wrote the author David Upham for permission to post ....he said to feel free to post for the more education the better

(Main parts)

Will Gold Be Confiscated Again?

On December 30, 1974, then President Gerald Ford signed a bill permitting Americans to once again buy, sell and own gold again. In the 28 years since then, there has been persistent worry that the government could confiscate it once again. These fears are not unfounded. The government can suspend the law at any time in order to "protect the currency system of the United States".


Apologists for the confiscation say that gold was never really confiscated at all. After all, they say, people were compensated! Yes, but by force and at a price fixed by government. If you did not "sell" to the government at their price, you were liable for fines of up to $10,000 and imprisonment for up to 10 years. When the executive order was issued in 1933, $10,000 was a lot of money. As you can see, they were serious. They wanted the gold. Soon after the government had picked up the lion's share of the gold, it raised the official price by 75%, making a huge profit. Can anyone say that was not a confiscation?


Who is the Enemy?


Can executive orders of the President or laws made by Congress be contrary to the US Constitution? In theory, no. But experience shows that the Constitution is seldom allowed to stand in the way of what those with sufficient power deem appropriate. President Roosevelt's authority to issue his famous executive order of April 5, 1933 was the so-called Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917. Among other things, that law enabled the President to "�investigate, regulate or prohibit, under such rules and regulations as he may prescribe, by means of license or otherwise, any transactions in foreign exchange for the export, hoarding, melting, or earmarking of gold or silver coins or bullion or currency." Some have asked, "Hey wait a minute. Wasn't the law supposed to apply to the enemy? How can they seize gold from our own people?" In the climate of the 1930's depression and the accompanying banking crisis, anyone who did not go along 100% with the President's program to end the depression was the enemy. The power of the government was to be used to fight the most dreaded foe: depression. So the concept of the enemy came to mean ordinary American citizens if the government chose to so classify them. Between 1933 and 1974, the law was been challenged numerous times. Always, the government has trotted out the "national emergency" claim.


In 1971, when then President Nixon closed the gold window, even foreigners who held US dollars which the US government had always promised to redeem in gold were shut out. At last, gold and the US Dollar were officially decoupled. Fiat money was complete. The cry of central bankers everywhere could be heard: "good riddance".


Wasn't the Law Confiscating the People's Gold Repealed?


Yes and no. The reasoning for the 1974 bill apparently was not because of pressure by the gold community or recognition that to usurp the people's right to own gold was unconstitutional or immoral. Instead, the government believed its currency manipulation (the ability to inflate at will) had obviated their need for gold. Gold had been dethroned as a monetary asset because it imposed to heavy a burden on the ability of governments and central banks to control their currencies. In plain English that means if gold is money, it would restrict the ability of governments and banking systems to perpetuate and enlarge the fraud of inflation. Gold's legalization has not restored it as money. Government legal tender laws continue to force the use of so-called federal reserve notes. The use of gold as money remains forbidden. The absolute governmental monopoly of fiat money continues to be protected by law against competition from gold. And if the government decides that it's paper money is somehow being usurped by the people who can now legally own gold, it can suspend the effect of the 1974 bill.


Indeed, at the time the 1974 bill was signed there was some worry that gold might sky rocket in price, disrupting the ability of central banks to inflate at will. On the eve of the bill becoming law, then Fed Chairman Dr. Arthur Burns said, "It is my duty to point out that prompt removal of present restrictions on the private trading in gold could complicate a financial situation that is already beset by strains and stresses."


Government intervention to keep gold's price down is nothing new. In 1975, the U.S. Treasury announced two public gold auctions. The purpose was to exert downward pressure on the price of gold in the upcoming free market. From the Treasury's point of view, these auctions were highly successful. Very little of the gold was actually sold at these auctions, but the presence of the Treasury in the market was a major factor in the price of gold then. A high price would have established gold in the public mind as a store of value and a true way to protect assets against fiat money inflation. A low price would cause the public to lose interest. The auctions amounted to taking what had always been a strategic asset of the United States and dumping it in order to depress the price. In May of 1976, as a partner in crime, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would auction 780 thousand ounces of gold every 6 months until 25 million ounces had been sold. The schedule was changed in 1977 to 524.8 thousand ounces every month. As you might imagine, gold fell in price reaching a low of $103.50 per ounce on August 25, 1976.


Subsequent US Treasury and IMF gold auctions took place for several years. Despite ongoing auctions of increasing amounts of gold, the price of gold turned around, climbing to $186.60 at the end of March, 1978. Everything possible was done to depress the price. The reason stated was that U.S. Treasury officials, the IMF and other central banks wanted to "continue progress toward the elimination of the international monetary role of gold."


Monetary history details the relentless pursuit of inflationary policies of the US government and the Federal Reserve Bank over the ensuing years. Because of the inflation problem and despite massive gold sales, gold's price rose eventually to $850 per ounce in 1980. More gold was sold, but the primary reason that gold fell after that was the successful effort of the Federal Reserve to curb inflation. Rather than institute a program to establish sound money over time, the Fed chose to inflict draconian interest rate increases on the economy by switching from targeting interest rates to targeting the money supply. Short-term, the program was successful and inflation's back was broken. Gold prices came down.


Subsequent to that time, the rate of money creation has again accelerated. The problem for the Fed became how to maintain a stable currency without having to resort to monetary discipline. Answer: target the price of gold. It has now become common knowledge that the Fed continues to engage in actions to do just that. It knows that a rising gold price is indicative of a weak dollar. So keeping the price of gold down should keep the dollar strong. For the dollar to keep its status as a reserve currency if not the reserve currency, it must remain relatively strong. In "cooperation" with other central banks, large gold dealers and the US Treasury, there is an ongoing effort to keep gold at or near a target of about US $300. So far the program has enjoyed remarkable success. The dollar remains relatively strong despite economic fundamentals that would normally have weakened it. Gold has seldom been over $300 since mid 1997.


So Will Gold Be Taken From Us Again?


The debate today about whether gold will be confiscated again continues. The proponents say gold will be confiscated again because of the governments insatiable appetite for wealth and desire to control its citizens. The other side says our freedom to own gold will never be challenged because "the environments of 1933 were light years away from what we live today". The government, they say, doesn't need our gold. It has been demonetized.


Both these viewpoints have elements of truth. But any conclusion that gold will or will not be again confiscated misses the point: to the extent that it really counts, gold has already been confiscated. The real problem gold presents to modern politicians and central bankers is the same as it has been since the dawn of history. In biblical times, kings engaged in "coin clipping". Now they do it with paper, promises to pay in the future, computers and legal tender laws. Gold is a discipline. It requires bills to be paid. It cannot be printed, created with a computer or in any other way made flexible so as to allow for transfer of wealth from those that have it to the bankers and politicians or those they wish to confer favor upon. As we have seen, central bankers and governments are ingenious at concocting schemes to maintain the fiction of fiat money so as to allow the massive fraud and transfer of wealth that it affords.


Instead of gold, national treasuries and central banks counted their reserves in dollar terms. The Fed can inflate at will. Now, citizens here can own gold. But who cares? It is a lousy investment, because the price is fixed by force of fiat money.


The problem for the Fed remains that gold is still recognized as the world's premier monetary asset, even if outside official circles. So, as we've seen, keeping the price of gold low has become a policy objective. Reg Howe, Bill Murphy and others have done a masterful job at exposing the process. As a consequence of the mammoth campaign to force down surging demand for gold, an entire industry has been irreparably damaged and the opportunity for Americans to profit from owning gold has been dealt a body blow.


So, let's review the question. Should we worry about physical confiscation of our American Eagles or Krugerrands? Let's ask another question: What would be the value of those gold coins if we had a free market in gold? Yes, of course, far higher. The Fed and Treasury, along with some institutional players (as a group called the gold cabal by some) have confiscated that value already by destroying it with massive intervention in the market. This time, they haven't used fines and imprisonment as Roosevelt did. They've used fraud on a scale unknown in monetary history. It is "coin-clipping" in its highest form. Government and the Fed has used the tremendous wealth so confiscated to support its fiat currency and a few favored partners in crime.


Recent events have clearly shown that the gold cabal may indeed be losing its grip. The price continues to surge, being depressed only by massive intervention. Eventually, of course, the gold cabal will no longer be able to force down the price through bullion sales, threat of such sales, forward sales, etc. There is some indication that some of the players in this whole conspiracy may not be willing to "go to the mat" (trade away all their gold for fiat money). The cabal may indeed be able to carry on their fraud for a good many years. At some point, they will run out of gold to sell or, more likely, come to realize that even they see that their gold reserves are dangerously low. However it unfolds, it seems clear that eventually the free market will indeed emerge the victor in this war. How many years can the charade can continue? It is anyone's guess. But of this we can be sure: in the end, free markets always win. No dictatorship, whether it be over gold or a nation, can endure forever.


What Lies Ahead For Gold?


So far, one might conclude that we are saying, "Since gold has been effectively confiscated already, there's no sense in worrying about the coin police taking our gold." We're not saying that at all. On the contrary.


When the gold cabal's house of cards tumbles � and at some point tumble it will � the Treasury and the Fed will become desperate. The dollar will have collapsed. The world will look to a trusted source of value � gold. The vast sums of US dollars and Treasury debt outside the country will be sold at some point and the dollar may no longer be a "hard currency". Most likely the Treasury has very little gold now. It will become every American's patriotic duty to turn in gold. Granted there won't be the rich trove that was available in the �30s. But desperation drives governments to take ill-advised measures. The government will need it to buy oil and other vital necessities.


In our opinion at some point, we will see a physical confiscation again.

... (Note: His view is that the government will also try to go after numismatics too as well as bullion due to how serious the crisis becomes)

When has the Constitution stopped them before? In the recent case, Howe vs. Bank for International Settlements, we note that Judge Lindsay said: "I conclude that Greenspan, McDonough and the Secretary of the Treasury in their official capacities are not �persons� within the meaning of the antitrust laws. They enjoy the protection of sovereign immunity." As James Turk summed it up, "In other words, they are above the law."


Some say that the slightest move by US authorities to confiscate gold would set off such a hue and cry as to render the effort useless. Under normal circumstances, certainly. But in any scenario envisioning a new confiscation, circumstances would not be normal. In his excellent article on this subject, Adam Hamilton says he doubts that any US government would ever "intentionally kill the US dollar by recalling gold and annihilating global confidence in the fragile fiat currency". But such arguments miss the point. It is only in the aftermath of the annihilation of global confidence that such a confiscation is likely occur. Hamilton further comments that he thinks going door to door to pick up gold here in the good �ole USA will just never happen. Again, we must observe: true, but only in more normal times. The depths of the 1930s depression were not normal times. And the government seized the people's money! They can't do it again today? Maybe not today. But today is disappearing quickly to be replaced by a tomorrow when the chickens will come home to roost. In fact with the exception of a few, we believe the public will approve, even demand it. Except for the few die-hards (a remnant if you will), it will be far easier this time. It will occur when:



The dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency. It has become, for all intensive purposes, a third world currency.



Foreign holders of the dollar are demanding to be paid. Foreign sales of US Treasury and other debt are swamping US debt markets and interest rates are moving quickly up in spite of Fed efforts to "stabilize".



Paying the dollar debts in fiat money has set off trade wars the likes of which have not been seen in living memory.



Demographics are vastly changed. Continuing a current trend, people are living longer. A smaller percentage of the total population is in the work force. Medical care is consuming a much larger percent of federal and state budgets. Productivity is falling.



The balance of trade is a real problem. Prices of imported goods has escalated. "Made In China" is a label seen less often. Exports are shrinking because of cut-throat trade wars.



Demands on government for transfer payments are rampant. Most of these are automatic � to undo them would require the congress to unwind decades of legislation. Federal loan guarantee programs will be triggered as never before. The government tries (but fails) to deliver on these promises. Picking up the gold is one method to employ to stem the tide of red ink. After all, upsetting a few gold owners is allot easier than facing millions of unhappy citizens.



War threatens and the US needs to buy strategic items from others who will no longer accept dollars.



Because of dissatisfaction with economic conditions and as a result of years of shallow, ineffective public school education, crime is increasing dramatically. The first phase of a government operation to confiscate private firearms is underway. As in the case of gold, many welcome it. The streets, they think, will be safe!


There are many more points we could add, but you get the drift. Most likely, this scenario develops over a half dozen or so years, maybe longer. Some will say that this bleak future just can't happen here. But that sort of Pollyanna thinking just does not come to grips with reality. The nation is spending away its seed corn. The nation's gold is being sold out from under the people. The United States is the world's largest debtor nation. Such debt cannot be paid with fiat money alone. That money must be redeemable in something. If our money were managed so as to minimize or eliminate devaluation, the nation could conceivably reverse its fortunes. But as has always been the case, fiat money offers just to big a temptation to those who control it.


For many years, gold enthusiasts and others who understand what drives economics and history have warned that debasing a currency cannot continue unabated, ad infinitum. These warnings have been largely dismissed by most who say only, "it can't happen here!" But many of the things that couldn't happen here have now happened! More are on the way.


Note: We sincerely hope that time will prove the foregoing scenario to be totally wrong. Historical trends can be reversed if only people will act! Many have tried, but so far the effect has been akin to the proverbial drop in the bucket.


What Should Individuals and Families Do?


We believe it just isn't prudent to rely on statements to the effect that gold will not be confiscated no matter how bad things get.

....(Gold) is the ultimate insurance. Above all, develop a habit of looking at the long�term. The nation is not pre-ordained to the scrap heap of history. But things will no doubt get worse before they get better. Those with the foresight to hold gold today may be those in a position to help rebuild the nation in the future.


A Last Word


Gold has by and large already been confiscated primarily through having it's value forced down by massive intervention in the market place. But that may soon change. As we've seen, the gold cabal will eventually lose control. There is plenty of demand to send the price up once the fraud is exposed and eliminated. Gold at $300 will one day be seen as a bargain-basement price. Investors have a truly "golden opportunity" to get into position for the biggest run since the tulip bulb mania. But this one will not be based on flowers which wither and die � it will be based on a respected imperishable asset that has been around since man first walked on the earth � gold!






















Cavan Man
I remember Vietnam very well although not a veteran.
(Thanks to those who are.)Afghanistan War Will Cost $10.2B
Fri Apr 12, 5:42 PM ET
By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The war in Afghanistan (news - web sites) probably will cost $10.2 billion this year, Congress' nonpartisan budget analyst is estimating, a figure that seems roughly in line with projections the Pentagon (news - web sites) has been making.

Photos

AP Photo


The Congressional Budget Office (news - web sites) estimate covers the federal fiscal year that runs through Sept. 30. It assumes that the Defense Department will follow through on announced plans to withdraw some troops and ships from the area, and that fewer targets remain than existed when the war began last October.

"If operational conditions change from those assumed in the estimate, however, then the costs may be higher or lower than CBO estimates," the budget agency said in an April 10 letter providing the data to Sen. Pete Domenici (news, bio, voting record), R-N.M.

The estimate excluded the Defense Department's broader costs of battling terrorism in the United States, such as providing combat air patrols over some American cities, or in other parts of the world besides central Asia. It also omitted the price tags of economic and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan and nearby nations.

So far this year, Congress has provided $17.4 billion to the Defense Department for the overall war against terrorism abroad and at home. In March, President Bush (news - web sites) requested another $14 billion for the Pentagon for the remaining months of this fiscal year. Lawmakers have yet to begin writing that bill.

The Pentagon and Bush administration have provided little public information about precisely how much anti-terrorism money has paid for costs of U.S. operations in and around Afghanistan, which have involved hundreds of aircraft, 80,000 troops and dozens of ships.

Pentagon officials estimated in February that the war was running about $1.8 billion per month, but that included the costs of Defense Department activity in the United States.

According to figures the Pentagon privately provided lawmakers in recent weeks, the Afghanistan war had cost $4.4 billion through Feb. 12. For the same period, the Defense Department said it spent nearly $3.5 billion at home, mostly for calling up National Guard and Reserve troops and for air patrols over U.S. cities.

Republicans said the budget office estimate seemed reasonable, but some Democrats said they believe it is too low.

"We've been told this is extremely expensive, with the overall war in the neighborhood of $30 billion" this year, said David Sirota, spokesman for Democrats on the House Appropriations Committee.

Sirota said that figure included the costs of action against terrorists beyond Afghanistan and came from Pentagon officials. He provided no details.

Of the CBO cost estimate, the biggest share was $7.9 billion for operating aircraft and ships, equipping ground troops, replacing munitions and repairing equipment.

Another $1.2 billion was for moving troops and equipment to central Asia, and $1.1 billion was for salaries and other personnel costs.

The estimate covered only costs incurred because of the fighting in Afghanistan. For example, the regular salaries of troops was not included, but combat pay was.


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Churning At Resistance for how long?A FORTUNE or a fortune cookie?
When I see how far these Geldsticks have overran the POG by percentage comparison.........and I know they have a leveraged liftoff, it still doesn't justify these high prices when half of them don't even have a PE ratio. The QQQ's are showing some consolidation like the shorts have beaten the tar out of the kid. He's calling his mom and she is on the PTA. The Nasdip bulls are coming out of the woodwork next week and it's going to put a "churn at the top" effect on the geldsticks. Did you fall in love with paper-gold when deep down somewhere in your heart you wanted only physical? DON'T WAIT TO BIFURCATE.....I mean bifurcate your own holdings going from paper back into physical when you see your goldsticks hovering on long term resistance with the war already priced into the +300 POG. The flippers that caught some glee over their goldsticks glitter are going to wipe their face and curse the goldstocks when this wimpy Nasdip rally hits. It could get bad. We have no idea how stong the hands are that hold the goldshares. Jon Kaplan may be way off in his price analysis but his general synopsis about the goldstocks is straight right on. I don't believe gold will drop to 280 or anywhere near there, not with all the hedgebooks being unwound. AU is a scared giant and they are going to be buying the dips in the POG. Traders can read,usually, so when they all saw the gold run they jumped on. Some got converted, but most won't be. What the average American knows about the macroeconomic picture and gold is like what we know about the backside of Mars. What the general public knows about gold is like how much it costs to get an earring in their naval. Wallstreeters are not goldbugs and they don't think like normal people. I was sitting next to a big bond trader who worked for Pain Weather. He said he had few clients with under 10 million. This was at our trader club where I get to stand on my soapbox for gold and stop getting laughed at. Anyway, he was an expert at moving money all over the world. His perception of REAL Greenspan economics was dim. Greenspan knows gold. All real economists do or they have no historical understanding. So it was shown to me how Wallstreet considers gold like cocoa or soybeans, passe and inconsequential. It was also shown to me that He was one I hated and I was wrong. He had a nice wife and four kids. Maybe they'll all grow to be paper pushers like their dad. So what, just move to the back of the herd. Am I able to coach someone like this down of a window ledge or a high bridge. This is where reality is at. These will be the ones wiped-out, left to pawn the car. One very successful options writer said he'd sell naked calls on it over 300. He said he never leaves his computer when he has naked calls sold, so he can buy them back if he had to. Sure that was post '96 short the gold mindset that isn't worth a pair of dimes now. The world has changed alot. It's that old "short the gold mentality" that is going to cause gold to base out just over 300 but like anything that passes over a resistance zone, it moves on up to the next level in bold moves. Burning out the shorts with slow upward pressure. What is going to cause it to go to 350? I know what, slow physical buying that creeps along slightly more and more,then faster, then in a "gold movement" then in a rush. Slow steady buying pressure all over the world. With 280 million people in USA most without an ounce of gold to their name........People will eventually brag about their gold purchases to family and relatives. The demand for physical among big investors is difficult because they have a bond and paper mentality. Joe Sixpack is the opposite. He has little money but trusts no paper. If you get a few million Joes to want to buy even one ounce of gold,you also have the certainty the what they buy stays off the market. Do you think the Japanese will ever sell this gold they are buying? Physical being diffused throughout the populations is a conservative mindset developing due to PAPER DISILLUSIONMENT. Stocks are junk, mutual funds are negative, bonds suffer ratings downgrades, what's left? No not the G-word, yes the G-word. Gold is a curse word to Wallstreet. It messes with their head the way football players don't talk about rugby. Baseball players don't talk about softball. So paper pushers don't talk about gold ownership.
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Don't forget about Billy-Joe and Bobby-Sue, two paper goldbugs with nothing better to do, but sit around the house watching their goldstocks fly and watch the tube. Here's what happened when they decided to never sell.........and there still running down in the south with no physical to this day. TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!
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A stock is only worth what another fool is willing to pay for it. Who me? No I'm the one who sold DROOY at 3.98. The fox got away. Lives to trade another day, might be back but only to play. Who sold SWC at 47.50. When it's all so happy, it's time to start getting scared.



USAGOLD
Siochain. . .
Another writer who sees the problem but doesn't have a clue what to do about it. In the investment business we deal with possibilities and probabilities, but never certainties. There is a possibility -- even a probablility -- of a gold confiscation given the scenario he describes so well. In the face of that, there is a probability -- but not a certainty -- you will survive it through the ownership of pre-1933 U.S. and European gold coins. You will not -- repeat "will not" -- have to pay an arm and leg to increase your probability of surviving a gold confiscation. That's all you can do!! Not all the rhetoric, all the suppostion, all the arguments in the world is going to change that, or improve your odds. All you can do is the best you can do. Take that, put it in your pocket and better your life with it. That's why I always preferred the philosophy advanced here by Aristotle better than any other in terms of what it can do for any of us ON A PRACTICAL LEVEL.

To paraphrase my long lost friend, gold get you some. And get you some pre-1933s to help you put confiscation fears on the back burner.

Related: Black Blade, that 30% diversification into physical makes all the other trials, tribulations and triumphs possible, and makes that Negro Modelo feel awfully good going down. . . . .comforts and companions, the Forum, a favorite beverage, the comfort of solid savings. Thanks again for all you do, my friend.

Mr Gresham
GR2
FOA -- on acid!

Quite the eye-opener.
Black Blade
U.S. Economy: Higher Energy Costs Erode Spending
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APLcT.BPRVS5TLiBF
Snippit:

Washington, April 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in March as shoppers spent more on higher- priced gasoline and reduced purchases of furniture, clothing and automobiles, suggesting the recovery may be losing momentum. Consumer optimism slipped this month, the University of Michigan reported. The most likely reason was higher energy costs, which pushed up the producer price index by 1 percent in March, the largest increase since January 2001. Sustained higher oil costs may limit the amount of money consumers have for other purchases, causing growth to cool in the current quarter.


Black Blade: So much for those who say that energy is no longer important to the economy.
Black Blade
MK - Negra Modelo - Yum!

Gee, thanks for the reminder I have some cold ones waiting, I raise my glass to you and thank you again putting up with us here at this forum that you so graciously have provided.

Cheers!

Black Blade
Siochain
@USAGOLD
I'm convinced...the ABC's of Gold you wrote & sell made a major imoression on my financial planning....I now have much more pre 1933...some investment grades for the enjoyment and appreciation...and other coins that are not too far above melt or bullion...to me it is added layer of security

I highly recommend your book to all who are interested in gold and trying to figure how to proceed.

This still though leaves open the question of planning in case things ever get so bad as to precipitate confiscation...I would agree that the liklihood is that straight bullion would go first....but I still have not made satisfactory prepations/plans and am hoping we get to discuss this important issue as time goes by...I want to keep my gold!
Black Blade
Salomon sued over analyst rating
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/12/news/companies/grubman/index.htm

Investor alleges firm's telecom analyst, broker misled him with Global Crossing recommendation.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The attorney who won a settlement with Merrill Lynch & Co. for a client who lost money following an analyst's advice has filed a similar action seeking $10 million from Salomon Smith Barney and its telecom analyst Jack Grubman for his advocacy of the stock of now-bankrupt Global Crossing Ltd.


Black Blade: I think that this is just the tip of the iceberg. I suspect that we might see many more analyst related lawsuits as more accounting scandals and suspect earnings reports come to light. It is simply a matter of honesty or in the case of Wall Street a simple lack of ethics.
USAGOLD
Siochain. . .
Please discuss, question and discover. That's why we provide this Forum. Your concerns are my concerns. The Denver Post runs a banner quote on its editorial page every day from its 19th century founder, Frederic Bonfils. It reads: "There is no hope for the satisfied man." I've always felt an attachment to that sentiment, and I certainly believe a similar sentiment is what, at the heart, drives this Forum. Please carry on , Siochain. I, like many here, very much appreciate your on-going contribution. The subject of confiscation is far from closed.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
your gold others want to hold
Gold confiscation has been going on all through time. It was important to "act poor" and pay taxes in goods of what the land produced. My clan lost their land after they agreed to pay taxes in gold instead of what the land could produce. Taxation beyond one's consent is confiscation. "Do they take taxes from their own children or from others? So then their own go free. Do you pay the head tax? What coin was in the fish's mouth? Another little "shakedown of some One for gold" episode we have recorded since ancient times. The order of money is scaled down according to relative value. Paper scrip is offered first making someone else liable for the exchange. Then would be barter of goods. Fiat currency is scrip. A coupon redeamable to whoever else will accept it. Then after real goods were refused it was commodities, general essential grains or metals. Iron,then copper,then silver,then gold. Gold was king of all metals. It was never offered first. Try the deuce then the three finally the jack or the queen, but never the King gold. Futures contracts are real money when good faith backs them. A farmer had no money so he would barter with his pledged promise of his future crop of corn or wheat. Thus "futures contracts" have been around as long as trust has been bestowed. Governments have always tried to wrestle gold and silver away from the peasants. Legalized gold ownership is a rare priviledge. It shows an advanced society with more noble ideals is in power. "Our paper money is so trusted that we can legalize gold and people can buy as much as they want." Quite a priviledge. It would sap the dollar of belief to confiscate gold. It would put the dollar on death row. Make it legal to own gold and no one will want it. Make gold illegal and it will become in high demand. Prohibition caused bars to pop up everywhere. Once it was made legal again, it was uncool to get drunk.

So intelligent rulers who derive great advantage pushing paper out by calling it "legal tender" have alot to loose by criminalizing gold ownership. By confiscating gold they are declaring it to be real money.
============================================================
Let us be of better memory than the squirrels who practice long term planning in their burying endeavors and who regenerate the oak trees in the process.
Black Blade
Tokyo Bank Report Calms Few Nerves
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1925000/1925169.stm
Snippit:

The FSA's probes into loans to 149 of Japan's shakiest companies are a vital part of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's plan to revitalise the recession-mired economy.

According to leaked details this week in the influential Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper, Japan's big banks will dispose of 30% more bad debt than initially expected.

Banks' willingness to begin putting their own house in order does not go far enough for some analysts, however. "The report has no more meaning than showing the inspections got stricter," said Naoto Odagiri, BNP Paribas analyst. "There's no guarantee figures disclosed cover all existing bad debts."

Most hope that Mr Koizumi will follow the report up with strict instructions to sort out the banking sector, rather than the mild persuasion the government has so far employed.


Black Blade: It gets worse, many private analysts believe that the total bad debt is much greater than the FSA has revealed. Is it any wonder that Japanese are pulling savings from time deposits and buying Gold? The "Japanese Gold Rush" should accelerate as the next "April Fools Day Surprise" approaches next year when all savings deposits above $75,000 are no longer guaranteed.
Gandalf the White
Question to Black Blade
Black Blade (4/12/02; 21:19:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 73290)
Salomon sued over analyst rating
====
Does not your Brokerage House send you a "disclaimer" to sign when you buy stock in any precious metal mining firm ? They sure do me ! They want me to certify that it was not the House's, or Broker's recommendation !!!
I laugh as I sign them and keep asking if they have done the same to clients on their previously recommended Dot.coms ???
===
<;-)

Black Blade
Re: Gandy

Actually I never recieved one, however, I always purchase shares or trade online (Fidelity Financial Services Brokerage and BuyandHold.com). That isn't to say that it isn't buryed deep in the fine print. At my age (and ever since my Lasik surgury a few years ago) I have to wear reading glasses anyway. It wouldn't surprise though if they put in disclaimers hidden amonst the legalese. Cheers!

- Black Blade
darkhorse
confiscation
IMHO (MOST humble), I believe that, if and/or when our government (which most definately has our best interests at heart) wants to run the confiscation route again, they will go after any and all gold, no matter what the "old rules" say. If/when things get so bad that they figure they need to bring home the gold to save what's left of our economy, they won't stop at one kind of gold or the other, and I won't stop to take any action I deem necessary to provide for the well-being of my family. I do support (and will in the future) our government (even with their flaws), until they start to take the food out of my kids mouths. That will be the day this old(er) man will become an enemy of the state, I'm most definately sorry to say!
Nomad
Confiscation

With all due respect to our host and others ... I just don't understand this talk of confiscation ???

In my mind the whole point of owning physical gold is that it is beyond the power of the government to ILLEGALLY appropriate it from the common citizen. For example, should the goverment seize my bank accounts, safe deposit boxes, even my house, they would never find my Gold ! (That's what shovels are made for :)

Yes, of course they could make it illegal to buy and sell gold in the Brave New USA, BUT surely not every country in the world would do be so greedy.

I will admit (and I do feel sorry for the fact that) our host will suffer under such a 'policy change' and will undoubtedly be singled out for special treatment, but I fail to see why anyone with a modicum of common sense should suffer the same fate. Thus the most important consideration is to BUY GOLD in the first place, and only secondarily is it important to deliberate about which vehicle one should place one's savings.

just my 2 cents ...

Nomad
Mr Gresham
GR2, Siochain, BB
GR2: "Governments have always tried to wrestle gold and silver away from the peasants."

Perhaps someday our castle will take on another mytho-historic setting, but we will call it "The Forest", where sturdy Anglo-Saxon yeomen (and their families) resist the murderous taxes imposed by Prince John and his Sheriff. If such becomes necessary, then let us be sharpening our aims, and our arrowheads...

Siochain: I've been surprised at how low the premiums on the popular Swiss, French, and British coins have been. Only a few % over melt. How long?

BB: Somewhere in the world, there must be a local newspaper named "The Blade", though it probably is not our Black one. We are fortunate, and I am one of those who uses you as my "front page" most days. Don' need no steenking paper -- I got The Blade!

The wife got mixed up and bought a case of Black Butte Porter, instead of Negro Modelo. (She thinks in Spanish sometimes, I believe, and also needs eye surgery.) Oh well, I suppose I can "suffer" through such an alternate brew, for a few more days...mmmmmmm
RobotGuy
I've once again had a few drinks, including but not least the old scotch.
I will do my best to not be offensive, but there has been posted a question by our honourable groundsperson that I would like to submit thoughts toward. "Why do we have this forum?" Perhaps I've already taken the question out of context but I would like to submit my story although it may seem irrelevant.
I have been interested in the success of precious metals for a very long time, and it appears as though the goldbug's dream is about to be realized. I discovered this forum roughly a year and a half ago, and there were some very thought provoking posts that both made me interested in returning, and eventually inspired in me the desire to participate.
This forum is a gathering of many very itellectual individuals who are willing to share their thoughts even despite any possibilities that they may be contrary to 'popular' beliefs. This is a forum where articulate and interesting individuals may share their understanding of unfolding stories that may be related to the events that many a goldbug have been waiting to witness.
I have been a member of the internet community for quite some time, and I will be quick to add an interesting site to my "favorites list."
I am also somewhat perseptive, and I am able (in my opinion) to collect information that may pertain to my benefit.
Psychologically speaking, this particular forum essentially consists of persons similar to myself who are both contrarian (idioligically), and interested in self fulfillment. I have no intentional insults when I say that we are likely more informed here than your 'average Joe'.
I do not wish to speak on behalf of the many wonderful persons who contribute to this forum, but personally speaking, this forum allows a gathering of inquisitive minds.

As I have said on previous occasions, this is a fantastic forum, and I am extreemly greatful for happening upon it.
Grateful, greatful,... you know what I mean.

I attend this forum before I sleep, and when I wake. As feable as it may sound I rely on this forum to maintain strength in decisions I have made that might be adverse to 'mainstream' opinion.

Thank-you USAGOLD, and keep up the good work. Some day I will make my free membership up to you.

RobotGuy.
Hipplebeck
Venezuela coup predicted March 4 2002
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/PAL203A.html



excerpt from transcript of Interview of Greg Palast, Journalist for BBC and Observer,
London, by Alex Jones


GP: What they said was here you've got an elected president of the government and the
IMF has announced, listen to this, that they would support a transition government if the
president were removed. They are not saying that they are going to get involved in politics
- they would just support a transition government. What that effectively is is saying we will
pay for the coup d'etat, if the military overthrows the current president, because the
current president of Venezuela has said no to the IMF. He told those guys to go packing.
They brought their teams in and said you have to do this and that. And he said, I don't
have to do nothing. He said what I'm going to do is, I'm going to double the taxes on oil
corporations because we have a whole lot of oil in Venezuela. And I'm going to double
the taxes on oil corporations and then I will have all the money I need for social programs
and the government - and we will be a very rich nation. Well, as soon as they did that,
they started fomenting trouble with the military and I'm telling you watch this space: the
President of Venezuela will be out of office in three months or shot dead. They are not
going to allow him to raise taxes on the oil companies.
YGM
Sharon and Arafat...
Going to kiss and make up....Well them swapping spit should give us all about 10 min of stress relief. Want to bet Powell gave Sharon a timetable for removal of Madman Insane? Time for a flyrod and spring trout feed....AWOL....YGM.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
The Bury-er the Merry-er
How to bury gold and pgms. Never where fire or "friends" can find them. Let me ramble a little here. After 1933, people would come into my grandfather's gift shop in Jersey City. They were afraid to be caught owning gold so they would ask if they could purchase gifts with their gold after people had already turned in theirs. My grandfather had an interest in keeping happy customers so he said, "Sure". Slowly the stack of gold eagles and double eagles increased. Where to hide it??? The maid had free run of the house and had access to everyplace everywhere. My grandfather decided to put all the coins in a sock, over 40 ounces, and bury it in a toy drawer filled to the top with marbles about a foot deep. The maid would never clean the drawer or remove it as it weighed over 60 lbs. There the gold stayed for some 40 years. True story. Psychology is better than concealment. Another guy I read about had a false pipe in his basement filled with silver coins running the whole length of his back wall. Way out.....yes indeed.
The safe can be discovered rather easily and removed with a chain saw or a cutting torch. Do they put chains and cables around ATM machines and drag them off?. Desperate crack heads are all around. My favorite method that I haven't tried yet, is to take a chain saw and plunge cut a slot into a big tree, then drop my coins in and hammer a wood dowel into the slot behind it. Spraypaint it the same color of the tree and within a short time it grows over and is forgotten. No metal detector guy is ever going to dig in a tree. And it is in a place I won't be able to easily get but I'll never forget. Or bury the jar under some concrete pour near the corner so I could dig it out later. The backyard is good too but what happens........we like to look at it so we dig it up. Then we think up a better location. Now we remember the old location but the stuff is buried in the new location. We find the new location, look at it again, then think up a safer location. Soon we have stashes all over and a memory that has "gold lost flashbacks". WAIT I'VE GOT MORE GOLD THAN THIS, I KNOW IT. So we go back and check the old spots and don't find any. So I'm saying make it hard to get at so it stays there in one good place. I was cleaning cobwebs out of my basement and discovered and old silver stash. It made me a little angry that I had forgotten about it for so long. I probably had others too. Forget about the POG fluctuations when you've got multiple stashes and no map. Because with our healthy sense of paranoia we say we don't want any maps lying around. Three shots of whiskey and a bout of "re-burier enthusiasm" and I can loose big bucks. I'll try to post in whole sentences without dangling modifiers and run-ons. It's good medicine for me to go back a week and re-read the forum. Then I see some of the stuff I wrote and it is not to the literary level that this forum is known for. I do enjoy reading the posts that are "over my head" because they make me reach for more understanding.
============================================================
I'd get some lead bars and spraypaint them gold and put them in a safe. So when the loosers attack and tear out the safe it pulls their back out and they end up at the chiropractor, with nothing. If they get caught it is still the same charge. Sunny-Zoo for you.
TownCrier
To Nomad: Visit the link below on confiscation -- my rainy Saturday ramblings
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/Hoppe.htmlYou said yesterday, "I fail to see why anyone with a modicum of common sense should suffer the same fate. Thus the most important consideration is to BUY GOLD in the first place, and only secondarily is it important to deliberate about which vehicle one should place one's savings." [end quote]

You've echoed the early sentiments that are shared by many when they first start giving thoughts to these matters. Although you've made this issue into what would seem to be a two-phase operation, there is really no reason that the very same FIRST steps into gold cannot be taken with firm resolve -- built on a newfound personal wisdom in this matter which can be built quickly, thanks to the work of others who have walked this road before.

There's no shame, in fact it is often advised, that a person would "look before they leap", and that is precisely what a visitation to this website (not just the forum portion of it) is all about, getting good, targeted information about gold quickly so that one need not stumble any longer than needs be in the darkness of uncertainty. And on the extent of that issue, I would refer you to these recent words by MK, the founder of this operation and a man who understands the benefits of gold ownership more than any other that I personally know.

He said yesterday in reply to Siochain:

[begin excerpt] "[confiscation] ...what to do about it. In the investment business we deal with possibilities and probabilities, but never certainties. There is a possibility -- even a probablility -- of a gold confiscation given the scenario he describes so well. In the face of that, there is a probability -- but not a certainty -- you will survive it through the ownership of pre-1933 U.S. and European gold coins. You will not -- repeat "will not" -- have to pay an arm and leg to increase your probability of surviving a gold confiscation. That's all you can do!! Not all the rhetoric, all the suppostion, all the arguments in the world is going to change that, or improve your odds. All you can do is the best you can do. Take that, put it in your pocket and better your life with it."
[end excerpt]

I believe it was Anduril who several weeks ago offered the remarks (memorable in their simplistic elegance) about "form" and "function", suggesting that those who held their gold in the proper form (pre-1933 coins) would gain additional benefits of private property security on top of the bare financial security offered by bullion alone.

I certainly echo the thoughts that, in such a time that gold comes under congressional scrutiny as a strategic national asset, the first form to be confiscated will be the mining corporation's in-ground reserves (through heavy taxation, production controls, and/or outright nationalization).

Next on the list would be bullion coins and bars in which the government pay the citizens a fixed price in compensation for the taking. To put muscle behind the effort, the goverment would likely legislate new controls on any and all "free market" buying and selling of bullion coins and bars -- limited to the government's official redemption price per ounce of bullion.

Last on the list would be the old world gold coins (collectively referred to as pre-1933s) because at such a time, owners would legitimately argue that these historic coins have individual collector value, uniquely determined by each date and every little scratch, dent, or state of perfection. There is little chance that the government, to facilitate a "fair market compensation" as required on all takings, would entangle itself in this mirk when all the gold they would likely need could come from easy controls on mines and from bullion seizure or bullion price controls -- allowing you to sell but not to buy. It takes very little by way of imagination to picture such a day -- in ANY given country, but this one in particular -- where it is only the pre-1933s that are left to jingle about in pockets, on their way home to the mattress-savings account.

R.
TownCrier
Buying gold with your eyes wide open -- help for first-time buyers
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.htmlHere's another page specifically provided to help bring the novice gold investor quickly up to speed.

R.
TownCrier
Jensen's latest reveals a potent mixture and potential for danger
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020413.htmlSome excerpts:

-----The Israeli Defense Force, as it is called, is now the world's fourth-strongest military machine. Besides an awesome array of American-supplied weapons, it has the largest and most sophisticated nuclear arsenal outside the five declared nuclear powers -- the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain -- estimated at up to 2,000 warheads. These include nuclear artillery shells and nuclear-tipped medium-range ballistic missiles (the Jericho 1 and 2).

The man who now controls those nukes has devoted his entire life to Israel's security, and ruthlessly so.

...What kind of man is Secretary of State Colin Powell trying to persuade to make peace with the Palestinians? At 74, Ariel Sharon may be the last Israeli leader who fought for the Haganah, politely described as part of the "underground" that helped create the Jewish state in 1948....

[Quoted in the daily Davar on Dec. 17, 1982], "If anyone even raises his hand against us we'll take away half his land and burn the other half, including the oil. We might use nuclear arms. Even today I am willing to volunteer to do the dirty work for Israel, to kill as many Arabs as necessary, to deport them, to expel and burn them, to have everyone hate us. . ."

---(click link for full article)---

Like many men through life, has he, also, mellowed with age?

Remember: when danger lurks, financial paper promises become frail, yet physical gold shines on.

"For as long as cannons have thundered, they have echoed with the sound of men yearning for gold."

R.
USAGOLD Market Commentary
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News stories:

Gold Prices Continue to Outshine Other Investments
(Knight Ridder, 4/11/02)
"Slowly and with little fanfare, gold prices have been inching higher for more than a year now."
***
Private Investors Return to Gold
(Miner's Weekly, 4/10/02)
In 2001 gold's perceived 'safe haven' or 'hedge against risk' status, together with lower interest rates on currency assets, saw individual investments in the precious metal stage a strong return in international markets.
***
Middle East Crisis Sets Off Rush into Gold Market
(Reuters, 4/6/02)
The Middle East's plunge into turmoil has driven gold prices towards their highest for more than two years as investors scramble for a safe home for their money.
***
Gold Surge Fueled by Central Bank Ceasefire
(This Is London, 3/31/02)
At Easter-time, talk of renewal in the gold market.
***
Phenomenal Japanese Gold Demand
(The West Australian, 3/30/02)
What happens when a nation of savers goes for the gold?
***
Escalation Of Mid East Conflict Clouds US Asset Outlook
(Dow Jones, 3/30/02)
With markets closed on Friday, Monday could be a big day in stocks, bonds, gold, oil.
***

timbervision
Confiscation
When the talk of gold confiscation surfaces and we are faced with the prospect of not just burying our gold to protect from typical theft but also from government theft, what are we to think? Does the cabal already know that it can pump fiat on us for decades, profit enormously from the transfer of wealth from the productive sectors of the whole world to the unproductive sector, the banks, and then at the point of collapse of their ponzi scheme just steal back the very substance they have insulted and devalued but now need to save their skin. When I read between the lines in Venezuela I suspect the confiscation of another country's wealth has just occurred, again!! Will they treat their own countrymen better? Its one thing to diversify one's portfolio because of uncertainties but is this just one big rigged game?

I don't know if FOA reads this web site regularly or at all anymore, but I would really like to know his thoughts. The Trail is not cold, but it needs his feet again.

RobotGuy's post from early this morning expresses my own sentiments about this site but in his own words,

"...I attend this forum before I sleep, and when I wake. As feable as it may sound I rely on this forum to maintain strength in decisions I have made that might be adverse to 'mainstream' opinion."

timbervision
TownCrier
Changing of the guard
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APLhSgBZ1QmVsZ2l1Appointment of Lucas Papademos of Greece as European Central Bank vice president as term of France's Christian Noyer comes to end after May.

from Bloomberg:

-----Spain, the holder of the EU's rotating presidency, posted an announcement of the selection of Papademos on its Web site at 3:15 p.m. It erased the Web page an hour later, saying the news was ``released by mistake.'' Papademos, 54, favors the ECB's goal of capping inflation at 2 percent...

Belgium held out for its candidate, Paul De Grauwe, ..... De Grauwe, 55, has favored letting inflation drift above 2 percent.....

The next vice president will serve for eight years, helping steer the ECB through the succession of President Wim Duisenberg when he retires in July 2003. The front-runner for that job is Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the French central bank.-----

Stay tuned, and watch for official policy signals.

R.
nickel62
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") A million thanks
Your post was right on target and exactly what I was wondering about myself now that my bank has cameras taking photos of me everytime I load up my safety deposit box. If you have any more stories or whatever about those experiences or thoughts I would enjoy hearing them as I am sure many others that read here would as well.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
decoy ploy
Sure, glad I could help. But I'd keep going in to your box and descreetly switch all the Reales for the surreals. Shiney coppers to go with a little bit of rolls of lead pipe. Change it all out but do not close out the box. Or even better put in nice 2x2 holders of heavy foreign coins that happen to have so much sentimental value. Then when they drop a tag on your box that says, "To only be opened in the presence of a government inspector", they open the box and they get to discover the wonders of foreign coin collecting. Pound for pound worth its weight in scrap copper. That's your downside risk. Decoys work for ducks and for those trying to duck. I think what we don't know can kill us. So i've learn to read until I drop.zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
mikal
Gold barter, transfer, exchange
If you wish to bypass a tax on sales of bullion, sell to a familiar local dealer. ;) Give him your business again and again, one good turn deserves another. Don't forget those trades and purchases with that surplus cash. As for coin shows, flea markets, antique shows, and gun shows, if these didn't exist, generations of US gold advocates and coin collectors would not exist today. Why? They were indispensible from the '30's thru early '70's, just as they serve an important niche today.
sector
Another Big Telco Bites the Big One...
...a $3.9 Billion loss...probably "...can't continue". Ho Hum what ELSE is new.UPC's Friday night surprise - a E4.4bn net loss
By FT.com staff
Published: April 13 2002 11:58 | Last Updated: April 13 2002 13:06

United Pan-Europe Communications, the troubled Dutch cable television company controlled by Liberty Media of the US, reported a net loss of E4.4bn ($3.9bn) in audited 2001 results released late on Friday.

UPC said it was in "constructive discussion with stakeholders" about the recapitalisation of its balance sheet.

But Arthur Andersen, UPC's auditor, said in a statement filed as part of the Dutch group's 10-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday that UPC had a "net capital deficiency that raises substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern."

UPC's consolidated balance sheet shows liabilities rising to E11.16bn at December 31 2001, from E9.62bn a year earlier. Cash and equivalents fell by almost a half from E1.69bn to E855m.

The net loss for 2001 was more than double the E2bn deficit reported in the previous year. UPC said the main difference was a one-time E1.5bn writedown of its fixed assets, based on a revaluation undertaken as part of a previously announced strategic review.

UPC also said it taken take a E200m restructuring charge as part of a programme to lower operating expenses and strengthen its competitive position.

Other components of the net loss included E1.1bn in depreciation and amortisation charges, E900m in interest charges and a E500m non-cash loss on the merger of UPC's Polish DTH interests.

On April 2, the Dutch group had reported total consolidated revenue of E1.38bn for 2001, up 38 per cent from E1bn in 2001. At the time, it said full results awaited final agreement on accounting treatment of interest rate cross-currency hedging agreements. On Friday, UPC said the issue had been "satisfactorily finalised". Its SEC filing revealed that UPC had changed its method of accounting for derivative financial instruments.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
The difference between success and failure often hinges on a tiny bit of information
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Trapper
Black Blade
Being an energy guy i thought you might like this. It seems that some money guys from chicago ahve beat the system. They are building a 100 megawatt power plant in the Upper Michigan that will be fired by COAL and WOOD. It will be 4 25 meg plants end to end with room for 2 more. Cost is 3.3 billion and will take 3 years to get on line with the power headed down the Chi town side of lake Michigan. The warm water from the turbines will heat an ethanol plant that will use all the corn grown for 100 miles. Heres the trick it will be built on Indian lands...no permit needed...cool huh. Where ther is a will there is a way.
Live small.
RJ
Buena Fe
Chavez loyalists take hold of palace
http://www.msnbc.com/news/735910.asp?0cm=c20&cp1=1WASHINGTON CAUTIOUS
In Washington, the State Department issued a carefully worded statement that appeared to accept at face value the military's declaration that Chavez had willingly resigned. The statement praised the Venezuelan military for refusing "orders to fire on peaceful demonstrators and [refusing] to support the government's role in such human rights violations." It blamed "undemocratic actions committed or encouraged by the Chavez administration" for the change in power.
--------------------------------------------------------
Artilce above really casts doubt about the media line that Chavez went voluntarily. US State department appears way too smug over this beneficial (lower POO) turn of events.

Thanks Hipplebeck for the story below. The stench of IMF (globalist cabal) ativity is all over this event. The only good news may be that they are getting sooooo desperate (after Argentina revolt and successful Euro) that they are taking huge risks to cling to control/influence, which will lead to their exposure! and thereafter downfall.

GET GOLD, MORE POWER TO YOU!
Belgian
Germany and the USA
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/GER108A.htmlThis article gives a splendid understanding into the backgrounds as to why Germany and the USA share very important goals and huge mutual interests ! This large scale cooperation between these two giants might explain, why Welteke/Bundesbank + Deutsche Bank/Bankers Trust have strong links over Gold's back.
It also explains why Putin's N�I friend is Germany and N�II
is the US. Again the depleting resource *OIL* (Caspian) is
at stake before commerce and political reconversion of socialism into...global capitalism, whatever this may be.
Buena Fe
Venezuelan Inauguration Postponed
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&ncid=716&e=5&u=/ap/20020413/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_49Chavez's daughter, Maria Gabriela Chavez, said in an interview with Cuban television aired Saturday that her family had received information that Chavez had been moved by helicopter overnight from the base to an unknown location.

She and other Chavez backers deny he resigned.

Ex-Education Minister Aristobulo Isturiz said top commanders military "want to call this anything, make Venezuelans believe that a junta took over because of a vacuum of power after Chavez resigned. But the truth is, there was a coup d'etat here."

Former National Assembly President Willian Lara, who was present when Venezuela's military confronted Chavez Friday, told The Associated Press that Chavez refused to resign.

Carmona, the 60-year-old head of Venezuela's largest business chamber, had played a key role in a general strike this week that snowballed into Chavez's ouster.
------------------------------------------------------

Chaos, coming to an "IMF (cabal) snubbing" democracy near you!
Buena Fe
Chavez Provoked His Removal, U.S. Officials Say
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A41210-2002Apr12?language=printerAdministration Expresses Guarded Optimism About Interim Regime, Calls for Quick Elections

By Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, April 13, 2002; Page A17


The Bush administration yesterday blamed former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez for the events that led to his forced resignation and arrest, calling his toppling by the nation's military a "change of government" rather than a coup. Officials said Chavez's departure was the will of Venezuela's people.

After years of frustration with Chavez and his leftist agenda, administration officials spoke with guarded optimism of future relations with an interim government led by Pedro Carmona, the head of Venezuela's chamber of commerce, including improved cooperation against terrorism and potential increases in oil imports.

Officials offered a barely veiled sense of satisfaction at the demise of Chavez, whose anti-American rhetoric, political alliances with pariah states and authoritarian ways drove the administration and its Latin American allies to distraction.

President Bush last month showed the administration's distaste for Chavez by meeting in Peru with the leaders of four of Venezuela's Andean neighbors and pointedly denying him an invitation. Although Chavez appealed personally to neighboring leaders to intervene on his behalf, the administration said the session primarily concerned trade preferences that did not include Venezuela.

"Obviously, nobody's shedding tears up here," said Steve Johnson, a Latin American affairs analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

At the same time, the administration emphasized that it wants Venezuela's temporary government to hold national elections, preferably by the end of the year. Officials noted that the leadership will face difficulties in restarting the country's economy and building political credibility. One said, "There are still a lot of details unclear."

An early sign of change was the pledge from a director of Venezuela's giant state-owned oil company that the firm would halt exports to Cuba, where Cuban President Fidel Castro became one of Chavez's closest allies and friends. Cuban foreign minister Felipe Perez Roque denounced the Caracas events as a "coup" and said Chavez remains Venezuela's constitutional president.

Human Rights Watch said it was "deeply concerned" that the military ousted Chavez -- whose popular support had fallen dramatically despite a 1998 landslide victory -- outside the democratic process. The presidents of 19 Western Hemisphere countries, meeting in Costa Rica, issued a statement that said, "We condemn the interruption of constitutional order" and called for "clear and transparent elections."

The presidents, who have mixed feelings about Chavez's forced resignation, invoked the Inter-American Democratic Charter, adopted in September by the Organization of American States. The charter requires specific actions by all 34 members when an "interruption" occurs. OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria will convene a meeting today of ambassadors and likely will report to a special meeting of OAS foreign ministers after a trip to Caracas.

The White House, which just yesterday proclaimed Pan American Day and described "democracy as the birthright of every person in the Americas," said the ouster of Chavez was prompted by peaceful protests and justified by the Venezuelan leader's own actions.

Chavez lost his job "as a result of the message of the Venezuelan people," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, who asserted a series of human rights violations by the Chavez government. "We know that the action encouraged by the Chavez government provoked the crisis."

Fleischer said the Chavez government tried to suppress peaceful demonstrations, ordered its supporters to fire on unarmed protesters and blocked media broadcasts of the events. After the military and police refused to fight further, Chavez dismissed his vice president and cabinet.

Chavez had been an annoyance to Washington long before his overthrow. A paratrooper who led a failed coup attempt in 1992, he won election as a leftist in 1998, styling himself as the populist defender of the Venezuelan people. He made a show of criticizing the U.S. government, while shipping enough oil northward to make the United States his country's best customer.

U.S. officials largely tolerated Chavez's words, while watching his methods and deeds ever more closely.

Intelligence reports suggested that Chavez was supporting anti-government opposition groups in neighboring countries. In October, the State Department recalled Ambassador Donna Hrinak for "consultations" after Chavez criticized the U.S. war in Afghanistan as "fighting terror with terror" and met in Tripoli with Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell testified to Congress in February that Chavez visits "some of the strangest countries," referring to the Venezuelan's visits to Iran, Iraq and Cuba -- all on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. Chavez supporters noted that Libya, Iran and Iraq are members with Venezuela of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in which Chavez played a leading role.

"In short order, the expectations are going to be high that this transition government can deliver something that Chavez was unable to do," said Heritage's Johnson. "If they hold elections and elect a new government, that government is going to be asked to do things that previous governments have been unable to do in Venezuela's 20-year decline."

Staff writer Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.

� 2002 The Washington Post Company
--------------------------------------------------------
Sorry to harp, but things are really coming into the open now!
Buena Fe
system cycles
below is why euro-creators, ME leaders, etc. walk so tenderly around cabal's interests. They just wait patiently for the natural destruction that history documents for every vaccum of greed.
Buena Fe
system cycles 2
wise individuals do same by "cuddling physical"

not long now .....
Black Blade
Re: Trapper - Energy Project

Sounds like some energy project. It is good to see people taking advantage of opportunity when they can. I have worked on projects on western Reservation lands in the past. Usually the politics and bureaucracy can be even more daunting than on US public lands. A typical scenario is first make a proposal with the Mining Council � if that passes, then go to the Business Council � if that passes, then go to the Environmental Council � if that passes, then go to the Cultural Council � if that passes, then go to the Tribal Council � if that passes then there may be another set of conditions (along with various sets of conditions throughout the process). I was amazed that anything ever gets accomplished.

I had heard of another proposed project using wood (western junipers) on BLM land that were to be "chained" - cleared and used for fuel to fire a wood burning power plant near Ely, NV (as if there are a lot of trees near Ely, NV). I don't know what became of the plan or if it is still likely to be built. However, the area is economically depressed as the major employer (the Robinson Project � Copper Mine) closed down about 3 years ago. There are a couple of other Gold mines that closed down over the last few years and the last two relatively nearby Gold mines will close this year (one near Eureka and one northwest of the town). If there is an upside, that means less Gold coming to market putting pressure on the supply-demand curve. However it is not good for the town.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym.
YGM
Gold Confiscation in Ancient Times.....
http://www.dalitstan.org/books/b_gold/Many parallels we could envision today....Interesting reading....."Brahmin Gold The Plunder of Paradise"
YGM
Nazi Gold, Swiss Gold/Banks etc Confiscation of Jews Wealth
http://www.lib.uchicago.edu/~llou/nazigold.htmlVirtual Library of articles......
YGM
For those who've never read this...
We all know history has a bad habit of repeating itself....The United States Gold Confiscation Executive Order 0f 1933.


Under the doctrine of The Emergency War Power Act of 1917
President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt yanked the security of gold from the American people. A state of National Emergency was declared to exist. The following is the Executive Order of 5 April, 1933.

From: President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt
To: The United States Congress
Dated: 5 April, 1933
Presidential Executive Order 6102

Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion and Gold Certificates By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5(b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, entitled



An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes~',

in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists,

I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of the order:

Section 1. For the purpose of this regulation, the term 'hoarding" means the withdrawal and withholding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates from the recognized and customary channels of trade. The term "person" means any individual, partnership, association or corporation.

Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933, except the following:

(a) Such amount of gold as may be required for legitimate and customary use in industry, profession or art within a reasonable time, including gold prior to refining and stocks of gold in reasonable amounts for the usual trade requirements of owners mining and refining such gold.

(b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins.

(c) Gold coin and bullion earmarked or held in trust for a recognized foreign government or foreign central bank or the Bank for International Settlements.

(d) Gold coin and bullion licensed for the other proper transactions (not involving hoarding) including gold coin and gold bullion imported for the re-export or held pending action on applications for export license.

Section 3. Until otherwise ordered any person becoming the owner of any gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates after April 28, 1933, shall within three days after receipt thereof, deliver the same in the manner prescribed in Section 2; unless such gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates are held for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a),(b) or (c) of Section 2; or unless such gold coin, gold bullion is held for purposes specified in paragraph (d) of Section 2 and the person holding it is, with respect to such gold coin or bullion, a licensee or applicant for license pending action thereon.

Section 4. Upon receipt of gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates delivered to it in accordance with Section 2 or 3, the Federal reserve bank or member bank will pay thereof an equivalent amount of any other form of coin or currency coined or issued under the laws of the Unites States.

Section 5. Member banks shall deliver alt gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned or received by them (other than as exempted under the provisions of Section 2) to the Federal reserve banks of there respective districts and receive credit or payment thereof.

Section 6. The Secretary of the Treasury, out of the sum made available to the President by Section 501 of the Act of March 9, 1933, will in all proper cases pay the reasonable costs of transportation of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates delivered to a member bank or Federal reserve bank in accordance with Sections 2, 3, or 5 hereof, including the cost of insurance, protection, and such other incidental costs as may be necessary, upon production of satisfactory evidence of such costs. Voucher forms for this purpose may be procured from Federal reserve banks.

Section 7. In cases where the delivery of gold coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates by the owners thereof within the time set forth above will involve extraordinary hardship or difficulty, the Secretary of the Treasury may, in his discretion, extend the time within which such delivery must be made. Applications for such extensions must be made in writing under oath; addressed to the Secretary of the Treasury and filed with a Federal reserve bank. Each applications must state the date to which the extension is desired, the amount and location of the gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates in respect of which such application is made and the facts showing extension to be necessary to avoid extraordinary hardship or difficulty.

Section 8. The Secretary of the Treasury is hereby authorized and empowered to issue such further regulations as he may deem necessary to carry the purposes of this order and to issue licenses there under, through such officers or agencies as he may designate, including licenses permitting the Federal reserve banks and member banks of the Federal Reserve System, in return for an equivalent amount of other coin, currency or credit, to deliver, earmark or hold in trust gold coin or bullion to or for persons showing the need for same for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a), (c), and (d) of Section 2 of these regulations.

Section 9. Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order or these regulation or of
any rule, regulation or license issued there under may be fined not more than $10,000, or, if a natural person may be imprisoned for not more than ten years or both; and any officer, director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.

This order and these regulations may be modified or revoked at any time.
/s/
Franklin D. Roosevelt
President of the United States of America
April 5, 1933


Old Yeller
Chile/Venezuela

Different Republican President'same players.

Kinder,gentler CIA;that's progress,anyway.

All the freshly spun news,manufactured in the Charlotte Beers' Ministry of Truth.
Mr Gresham
Venezuela Eyewitness
http://www.zmag.org/ZNET.htmWhat's the point of being a great power if you can't bulldoze thousands of little bodies out of your way whenever you feel like it? (Or have your vassals do it for you?)

Time to see Jack Lemmon's "Missing" again...
Mr Gresham
The "veneer of civilization" ...
http://www.erblist.com/erbmania/nkima/veneer.htmlwearing thin again. Thought I'd look for the origin of the phrase.

Seems to be Edgar Rice Burroughs, in his Tarzan series, and earlier essays.

"Civilization (which is part of the circle of his imaginings) has spread a veneer over the surface of the softshelled animal known as man. It is a very thin veneer; but so wonderfully is man constituted that he squirms on his bit of achievement and believes he is garbed in armor-plate.

"Yet man to-day is the same man that drank from his enemy's skull in the dark German forests, that sacked cities, and stole his women from neighboring clans like any howling aborigine. The flesh-and-blood body of man has not changed in the last several thousand years. Nor has his mind changed. There is no faculty of the mind of man to-day that did not exist in the minds of the men of long ago

"It is the same old animal man, smeared over, it is true, with a veneer, thin and magical, that makes him dream drunken dreams of self-exaltation and to sneer at the flesh and the blood of him beneath the smear. The raw animal crouching within him is like the earthquake monster pent in the crust of the earth. As he persuades himself against the latter till it arouses and shakes down a city, so does he persuade himself against the former until it shakes him out of his dreaming and he stands undisguised, a brute like any other brute."

YGM
Mr Gresham...
Thank You..I shall hereafter view Burroughs in a new light. Liked him as a kid and never gave thought to him since...YGM.
YGM
Foraging for truth...
http://www.palestinemonitor.org/index.htmlas I do, I came upon this site....A view from the 'OTHER' side of the ME conflict....I make no judgements, only passing on an avenue of reflection......
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Why It took a gunboat to open up a nation for trade.
Another true story about gold.......In a land far far away there was an island. They had strict codes of honor and became open to traders. The traders soon discovered that on this island the ones in power insisted that silver was worth almost as much as gold and their exchange rate was much different than the rest of the world. The traders knew about this disparity. So whenever the traders could they paid in silver and insisted in being paid in gold. After so many months of this it was finally brought to the attention of the nobles that their realm was nearly void of gold and quite flooded with silver. They became enfuriated and vowed to drive out all foreigners. Only a few Dutch were allowed to set up a trading post on one small island. The island nation was Japan. The event was called the Bakumatsu Currency Crisis. It is the reason that Japanese gold coins are extremely rare. I also believe that it is their destiny to have their gold returned to them via their purchases and so we see what goes around comes around. Western traders riped them off on a grand scale. We will see how their gold purchases effect the island of the paper pushers.
The Invisible Hand
Success vs Failure
MK said:
"The difference between success and failure often hinges on a tiny bit of information."
Why then are even prominent posters on this Forum boasting about not having 100 % of their portfolio in the physical thing?
Rock
Invisable Hand
I do!

Rock
mikal
@Invisible Hand, Re: Human nature
We are independent: "You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink." We are adventurous: "Experience is the best teacher." And a bit cautious: "Believe nothing of what you hear, and only half of what you see."
The Invisible Hand
SM-crash on Monday at the opening?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1926000/1926880.stmThe BBC was announcing on Friday, late in the evening, that the European Commission would say in a submission to EU finance ministers, who began their three day meeting in Spain on Friday, that

"Recent evidence from the US and Europe has underlined concern that general recommendations on issues by financial analysts can give rise to false or misleading signals as to the underlying value of an instrument."
and that

" �Systematically skewed� recommendations by analysts may �significantly� have fuelled the dot.com bubble of the late 1990s "

Let's see on Sunday evening what came out of this meeting.
Siochain
Personal note
Since I have been posting I have come to look at many of the wonderful people here as friends on a unique journey,

So I thought I'd let you know that I may not be posting for a little bit for I need some time away.

As many of you know I lost my Mother quite suddenly eight weeks ago today

Then I've been having quite a bout with Tinnitus and Vertigo...which doctors say is probably related to the shock and loss of Mom

Then today my good friend and companion of almost 14 years ...my Maltese dog Fluffer (she was nothing but a ball of Fluff when I got her) passed away...she had never been the same after Mom's loss

Those of you who are animal lovers (& I bet a lot here are) know what roles they play in our lives

So I have had several weeks I'd just like to erase from my life...but since I can't, I may take off to spend some time at our family cottage on Martha's Vineyard.,,,I need some time away

So keep the gold market UP for me...I'll be counting on you

Siochain....Peace/Mary Ann
mikal
Shakespeare's "golden" healer
Excerpt of: MACBETH, ACT IV, SCENE III: Macduff: " What's the disease he means?" Malcolm: "'Tis called the evil: (scrofula, called 'the king's evil' as the disease the king's touch had repeatedly cured) A most miraculous work in this good King, Which often since my here-remain in England I have seen him do. How he solicits heaven, Himself best knows: but strangely-visited (oddly afflicted) people, All swoll'n and ulcerous, pitiful to the eye, The mere (utter) despair of surgery, he cures, Hanging a golden stamp (coin) about their necks, Put on with holy prayers: and 'tis spoken, To the succeeding royalty he leaves The healing benediction. With this strange virtue (power) He hath a heavenly gift of prophecy, And sundry blessings hang about his throne That speak (proclaim) him full of grace."
goldquest
@Siochain
This forum is blessed with having kind and thoughtful people like you. Our thoughts and prayers are with you. Please don't stay away to long. goldquest
Black Blade
Re: Invisible Hand � Percentage Physical

Hi IH,

I don't know how others feel, but as for myself I have physical PMs as portfolio insurance and not as an investment (at least not in the traditional sense - though at times it can be). Physical metal is the ultimate insurance as it carries with it intrinsic value and is easily transportable. The amount of physical precious metal ownership is dependent on ones comfort level. If one is comfortable with 10%, 20% 30%, �.100% then fine. It used to be a rule of thumb among financial planners that everyone should have a minimum of 5% Gold in their portfolio. I am currently comfortable with about 30% split among Gold and Silver, with a smaller amount of platinum maples.

On the other hand I have investments in other instruments such as stocks, trusts, and limited partnerships. I guess it comes down to how comfortable you feel with your percentage of wealth tied up in either one instrument or diversified across more. Of course if I were able to, I would be making more PM purchases (currently I am sitting on the "Bone Pile", going to the gym, getting fishing and hunting gear ready, and consuming good beer). Perhaps after business picks up I will make more PM purchases (ya just can't ever really have too much though). Right now I am comfortable getting by with no debt and secure that no matter what happens I have a healthy stash of PMs, cash, and a substantial supply of food and necessities.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
mikal
@Siochain
Sorry to hear of your losses and pain. I hope that you are receiving good and sound medical care. May your retreat bring you an abundance of blessings. We await your safe and successful return.
Mr Gresham
Siochain
Take that recuperative rest for yourself -- and for each of us in our turn -- it really does work! And we go too long without it. You'll see that clearly about one week into it.

We live in times that are psychologically demanding -- and demeaning. Not the physical bombardment some are under, for sure. But real exhausting of our psyches.

When we go across to our island, we come to realize the burdens we are carrying for others, and re-apportion them accordingly when we return.

Our animal friends (our loss was at Thanksgiving) keep us in touch with our animal bodies, and our physical land (am dodging deer poops, but no dog poops, lately) which we enjoy together with them, and see partially through their eyes.

"The dog up and died, up and died...after 20 years, he still grieved." Mr. Bojangles -- Nitty Gritty Dirt Band
Black Blade
EU wades into analyst integrity row
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1926000/1926880.stm
Snippit:

The European Commission is to join the battle to promote integrity among financial analysts, following concerns that gurus have given favourable stock reports to win business. The commission is to tell EU finance ministers, meeting in Spain, of loopholes in legislation being drawn up to fight market abuse.

Systematically skewed recommendations by financial analysts appear to have significantly contributed to the overvaluation of many telecoms, media and technology securities. While the laws address issues such as the spreading of false financial information to markets, they do not fully address the conflict of interest concerns which have launched a mass of lawsuits in the US.

Black Blade: Monkey see � monkey do. Now that the SEC is pursuing criminal enterprises known as Accounting firms and Boiler Room analysts that work for the large bankers and investment houses, now the EU is following up with the same. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade
siochain

I hope all goes well with your rest. Martha's Vineyard - not a bad place to recoup. I used to go to Chatham occasionally many years ago. Take care and rest.

- Black Blade
Mr Gresham
Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmSounds like he's been pondering Noland, and FOA?, lately, and filling in detail where they haven't gotten to yet. Carves out some nice insightful language as his reports get deeper into the mechanisms turning our economy's "gears"...

"'Thus, the only place to be invested at the approach of a credit crunch is in short-term highly-liquid depository accounts". 5

"In The Long Wave Analyst, Gordon describes the pattern and bust that renews itself in each credit inflation cycle. We�ve gone through the boom period. Now comes the bust. However, history never repeats itself in the same way. Patterns and outcomes may be similar, but never the same. There are unique circumstances in this last credit boom, which are going to make the next bust cycle different. They are the product of the parallel financial system that mutated out of the 1970's inflationary experience. The transference of the credit creation mechanisms outside the banking system and through the securities market has created a uniquely different set of circumstances. One of which has been the explosion of risk transfer vehicles known as derivatives. These financial instruments have allowed the expansion of leverage to an unprecedented degree never thought possible before. This has led to a process referred to as "gearing." Gearing is a process in which derivatives are used to gain control of a more expensive financial or tangible assets through the use of leverage at a very low cost. It allows for dominance of an asset class at a fraction of the cost of direct ownership.

"Paper Markets Control Physical Markets or Why We Have Investment Fractional Reserves

"This process of leverage has been the main vehicle by which central banks have waged war against tangible assets in order to keep their prices suppressed. It has also allowed hedge funds to place sizable bets on everything from currencies and interest rates to commodity prices. A small amount of capital can control a much larger asset class. It doesn't matter whether that asset class is gold, silver, oil or a currency. The point to understand is that the paper markets control the physical markets and not the other way around. The explosive use of derivatives and the amount of leverage they employ has become the financial equivalent of fractional reserve banking for the investment world. The whole system works as long as confidence in the system is maintained. Should confidence evaporate, the system would implode if settlement were made in the physical rather than in cash.

"The process of gearing has controlled the commodity markets for decades. It has kept prices low; while demand for products has expanded. This runs contrary to general economic laws. As a result, the demand for everything from gold, silver, oil, natural gas and food has expanded; while their prices have declined. This has led to disinvestment, divestiture, and contraction of most commodity-like businesses. We've seen that most commodity type business have contracted, consolidated or merged which has further reduced supplies. In many commodities such as gold, silver, oil and natural gas we are living off decades of accumulated reserves in order to meet demand. This is a process that can't go on indefinitely. Eventually the process will reverse itself when accumulated inventories and stocks are drawn down. Raw materials have gone through a bear market that has lasted more than 25 years. No new refineries have been built in close to two decades and we wonder why gasoline prices jump when supplies get tight due to demand. There isn't any excess refining capacity."

Waverider
Musings...
Buena Fe - I thought the timing of Chavez's departure was more than "coincidental" - the US needs to stabilize oil supply and prices before all h*** breaks lose in Iraq/ME? Thanks for your posts and thoughts.

Invisible Hand - I'm sure there's variation in the percentage people who post here have in physical. I'm around 30% based on many factors. The important thing is I'm comfortable with my decision, sleep well at night, and well prepared should calamity strike.

Siochain - it's a good decision to take some time for yourself. I lost my mom several years ago, and my best friend just a few months later - know that it *does* get better with time. Meanwhile, nurture yourself and allow others to nurture you. We'll man the POG while you're away - and maybe even have a pleasant suprise for you upon your return. Thanks for all your thoughtful contributions here. Take care.

Black Blade - thank you!

Waverider
Gandalf the White
Your ATTENTION, Please !!
TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MDT) on Friday, April 19th. We stand at the time of numerous world calamities, a time of feeling peoples pain, a time of needing to stop and think what the future might bring to you and your family. We have all seen pictures and read stories of the financial pain of the people of Argentina, so Sir MK asks:

"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines ?"

We ask contestants to treat the present potential economic, and political status, together with the recent Argentine financial scenario, as a basis for their entry thinking. Your Contest post must be at least 50 words and it must contain in the subject box the following:

******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

(Note the surrounding STARS !)

The "GRAND PRIZE" will be an Argentina 5 Peso "Argentino" gold coin, over 100 years old and containing 0.2334 troy ounces of gold. There will also be two "runners-up" who will receive Prizes of a one ounce silver Canadian Maple Leaf coin.

(Did you see that you Silverhearts ?) <;-)

We wish you good luck, good fortune. . . . . .And. . . . .

Let the contest begin!

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Siochain
Siochain, I hope for you the best. Whenever I see my health running down a little I drink some V-8 juice and then sip a slimfast shake in the can. It's like a liquid vitamin pill. I keep the half opened can in the refrigerator. It slows me way down if I drink it all at once. This remidy can pick me up well. I think I have alot of chemicals in my body, trace plastics and toxins from food preservatives. I'll miss your input. Have a relaxing vacation. -GR2
YGM
Siochain...
Dear Lady....Hurry back. This forum excels w/ those like yourself who can put pen to hand and gain the ear of many. As I was gone for so long I've missed many of your thoughts and wonderings but have much enjoyed since my return. Remember I'm just the resident redneck who loves to absorb but offers little and I'll miss your posts. I truly admire those who are fortunate enough to expound thoughts/knowledge as well as they gather. I'm sure you know, loss of loved ones is a good time for reflection by those left behind. Crossing over seems like the ultimate adventure to me....Sincerely..YGM..(Ken)
mikal
@Invisible Hand, Re: Upcoming market week
http://167.216.192.97/moneymatter/mmnewstoryht.jsp?newsid=13524Seems Wall Street will need an extra dose of plunge protection from the Working Group on Financial Markets, spin doctoring, and auspicious planetary alignments...........
US stocks to remain range-bound in week ahead Reuters New York , 13-04-2002 �
Stocks are likely to sag or remain unchanged next week as Wall Street braces for a storm of weak earnings and poor forecasts from Corporate America.
"Because companies ... have not sounded encouraging, I think we will be in a range-bound market for the next two weeks," CIBC World Markets chief investment strategist Subodh Kumar said in Toronto. "The key factor that people want to see with the market recovery is the corporate earnings."
Indeed, a surge in corporate profits remains the missing ingredient. Analysts forecast profits will fall 9.7 per cent in the first quarter, compared with a year ago, according to market research firm Thomson Financial/First Call.
Wall Street, which rallied from late September through early January on hopes the economy and corporate profits are on the mend, has been in a funk the past four weeks amid warnings of disappointing earnings from behemoths such as International Business Machines Corp.
The tidal wave of earnings reports next week will flow from household names and some of the bluest of the blue chips.................. Investors also will sift through a slew of reports on the US economy. These include data on business inventories, consumer prices, housing starts, industrial production, international trade and weekly unemployment statistics as well as the leading economic indicators, a key forecasting gauge............... Now the moment of truth beckons as the actual earnings begin to emerge. What the market wants to see now before any big leg up is that companies start verifying what a mountain of recent government reports and other economic data has shown, which is that things are getting better. Many fear such good news will have to wait............. "The data on aggregate will continue to show the economy having some kind of recovery. People will focus on industrial production and housing starts," said CIBC's Kumar"....click link for more

mikal
Correct link is one of my weakest links:
Gandalf the White
WOWSERS !! Also a Price GUESSING CONTEST !!! Thanks, MK
The COMEX JUNE '02 (GC2M) FRIDAY, April 19th Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
--
THE RULES --

1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)

3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 18th.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.


THE PRIZES !!

To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argenitine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!

The Ol'e Wiz is seeing that there will be over one hundred entries this time, so do not wait toooo long before you make that claim of the correct settlement price !!
In order to start things off in the correct direction, the Hobbits shall make their entry SOON. BTW, Friday's GC2M settlement price was $302.9 and over 110,000 contracts are "Open".

GOOD LUCK ALL !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
$$$$$308.1$$$$$
The COMEX JUNE '02 (GC2M) FRIDAY, April 19th Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
The Hobbits have their answer already !
---
WHY? -- Because that is the next TEMPORARY resistance point on the TA chart !
<;-)
Black Blade
Turnaround signs unseen: If history's an indication, we're in for a long slump
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134435930_stox13.html
Snippit:

Burke said that if Wall Street does follow past patterns, stocks could be in for a really long slump after an extended expansion that began in 1982. "What has happened in the past, after big run-ups like this, is the Dow has engaged in a very long-term decline or has been flat in order to digest the growth it has experienced," Burke said.

Just how long of a wait is the market in for? At worst case, it could be years, Burke said.

According to his research, the Dow reached a high in 1966, but then lost 75 percent of its value between that point and the low it made in 1982.


Black Blade: An economic recovery is out of the question. There is no way that energy capacity can expand enough to meet rising demand if a recovery gets underway. Therefore economic expansion is severely limited. In short � scratch one economic recovery.
Black Blade
Profits take another hit
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB7720C25%2D3525%2D4B38%2D95B9%2D19C1ADF2EC56%7D&siteid=mktw
Commentary: Corporate borrowing costs rising

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Just when you thought it was safe to expect a rebound in profits, Corporate America has been hit with yet another increase in costs - the cost of borrowing money.

Black Blade: Another nail in the coffin.
Mr Gresham
Perhaps a "Venezuelo" Contest: Palace Re-taken
Mr Gresham
Did anyone get this Mauldin article yet?
http://www.2000wave.com/home1/home1.htmlPart of what is new and interesting is about the flattening of interest rates to corporate America via interest rate swaps, by way of Bill Gross.

"How do you make $500 million [GE's added interest expense] go away, or become "de minimus"? You go to your favorite investment banker, and he arranges a "swap" with another firm. You trade your long term debt for short term debt, minus the investment banker's handling fee. You probably do not even know who is on the other side of the swap. You trust your investment banker to take care of the details.

"Why would someone want the long term debt? There are hundreds of reasons. Maybe you can lock in a rate for debt that is cheaper than you could get on your own, or you are buying a long term investment and want to lock in financing. It could be part of an interest rate trade. The list is endless. As long as you can find a willing investment banker, you can arrange the swap. The swap market now dwarfs the bond market as a vehicle for financing.

"[Bill Gross] ..."And that is where I came upon what might be another [new idea]- and this too is where I shall leave the GE saga and move on to the broader context of Corporate America which is what I intended to do in the first place. The fresh idea (although it's been lying in the grass for years now) was that if lots of corporations were doing the same thing, then the short-term Fed Funds rate is driving the economy. Now that of course is no brilliant observation, it has been thus for eight decades or so with a temporary disconnect in the 1940s for wartime finance. But when a creation of the last 10 years - the interest rate swap - makes it possible for Corporate America to term out their debt and still pay near commercial paper rates, then that's a revelation - or better yet, a revolution.

"It means that short-term rates are even more critical to the profitability of Corporate America - to the level of the stock market - to the growth rate of the American economy than ever before. It means that Alan Greenspan dare not raise interest rates too much or risk sinking the stock market and the economy once again; it means that because his ability to raise short rates is limited, that ultimately inflation may be higher than it otherwise would be in a still near deflationary world; it means that bond investors should do certain things and not do others."

He illustrated this by going to one of my favorite sources, Bank Credit Analyst, and shows graphs that demonstrate corporate debt it rising dramatically but corporate interest rate expense is not, even while long term rates have not come down all that much. Then he notes:

"It seems reasonable to me that if recent debt levels have risen to record highs, while interest expense remains well below 1990 peaks, then corporations have got to be loaded with lots of short-term debt exposure even as they supposedly "term out" their commercial paper. Short rates have dropped from 8% to 2% since 1990 while long rates have only declined 200 basis or so. The dampening influence which permits corporate interest expense as a percentage of cash flow to appear so benign in Chart 2 has got to have come from lower short, not long rates, which in turn have resulted from large amounts of commercial paper/bank debt/ or - which is the hidden link - long-term debt "swapped" back into floating. Corporate interest expense truly does appear to be "de minimus" and probably because of swapped liabilities into the front-end of the yield curve.

"De minimus is as de minimus does, or better yet, de minimus is as long as short rates stay low. But corporations, which load up on the short side with visible CP, bank debt, or invisible swap lines, are truly taking an open-ended risk of loss. Swaps hold no magic really - if short rates move up, one side loses while the other gets paid and if corporations with short-term liabilities are on the losing side of that trade then profits, the stock market, and the economy all feel it when the Fed marches upward. An increase of 175 basis points in short rates from 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2000 was a factor in causing a mild recession in 2001. Does Greenspan dare do more in this next tightening cycle? Nay - he will do less once the 9/11 emergency reductions have been taken back to a more normal 3% or so. Too many big time "players" are on the short side. The systemic risk is certainly anything but de minimus."

G: Mauldin concludes that this militates for short-term rates staying low, under a deflationary recession scenario. I read it the opposite, in that the sheer volume of short-term debt is understated due to the swaps, and the rates therefore are spring-loaded for a jump upward as the swap writers lose their first big bucks and refuse to roll them over, leaving all liquidity operations to the Fed...



Waverider
Venezuela interim president quits
http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&eid=1105637Snippit:
"Venezuela's interim president, Pedro Carmona, has resigned after one day in office, and the former deputy of ousted President Hugo Chavez says he is assuming the presidency until Chavez returns.

After a day of confusion and street protests in Caracas by thousands of angry Chavez supporters, Chavez's brother, Adan, told local television on Saturday that the left-wing leader would soon be returning from the Caribbean island of Orchila, where he was taken into military custody after Friday's military coup."

Waverider: More confirmation...(thanks Mr. Gresham). Apparently Carmona has been arrested. My thought is whether this could lead to civil war...no doubt POO will jump.
darkhorse
***** $312.3 *****
The XAU seems to be taking steps up along x5 and x0 (i.e. 60 => 65 = > 70 => etc); physical seems to be taking steps up along x2 and x7...therefore the 312 part - the .3 part is just a wild guess. :) We all know all the bad stuff just waiting to happen, and on the other side of the coin (pun intended) we all know it's not a free market. So I'm thinking up, but with a leash.
Waverider
Gandolf
Yahooo...I love these contests...and such generous and precious prizes! You make these contests soooo... much fun! Kudos to Darkhorse for being the first entry!
Black Blade
Venezuelan Interim President Resigns
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&ncid=716&e=1&u=/ap/20020414/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_72
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's interim leader resigned Saturday after a single day in office as thousands of supporters of ousted President Hugo Chavez protested for his return. "Before the nation, before the Venezuelan people, I present this resignation," Pedro Carmona said over the radio as gunfire rang in the streets in a third bloody day of upheaval that officials said left at least nine people dead and 40 injured on Saturday.

Venezuela, the No. 3 oil supplier to the United States, was left without a working government. Carmona said he was handing over power to the National Assembly, but Chavez's vice president, Diosdado Cabello, declared himself acting president until Chavez's return. Cabello was later shown on TV being sworn in.

Carmona had been named president by the military high command on Friday, the same day the generals had ousted Chavez after gunmen loyal to him fired on opposition demonstrators amid a general strike called to support dissident oil executives at the state oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela.


Black Blade: Reportedly Hugo Chavez is on his way to the Presidential Palace to resume duties as El Presidente and senior military staff are under arrest. . My guess is that a few generals will probably face the firing squad (or maybe just prison). The old guard back in power and military enforcers making sure that the oil flows at the point of a gun. The Venezuela Oil industry continues to come apart as no improvements to infrastructure have been made and reserves have not been replenished. New taxes in place to punish the capitalists for attempting to overthrow El Presidente. The economy continues to slide. Just like the good old days.
Grubstaker
$$$$306.0$$$$
CONTEST ENTRY
goldenkiwi
thankyou
A big thankyou to all who post from a keen goldbug a special thankyou to Blackblade for your excellent posts

Goldenkiwi
Mr Gresham
Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin
http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=10617Doug gets pretty agitated this week -- keep at 'em, scout! They're on top of the world -- until they ain't. "I told you so" doesn't count for beans the week after. Better a year or two early, than a day...
Mr Gresham
Now, THAT'S News!
Sort of a Man Bites Dog story. You don't see too many reverse coups these days. Kissinger Associates must be going into semi-retirement. "Vell I told him, you must be shuah ze gunss ah loatet, ven you go into ze palass."

Anyway, I'm sure we'll have it all straightened out by morning. Certain agencies already have enough inter-governmental-rivalry and budgetary egg-on-their-face from Sept. 11, to let this one go by as a further blooper...

Belgian
Sunday morning...
Soichain : Have an intensive rest and come back soon with renewed energy and ambitions. Take care Sir.

T. Invisible H. : 100% of my (modest) wealth = Physical Gold ! And if more paper should land into that faction of "wealth", I'll exchange it immediately for more Physical.
1/ Stocks will be promoted by bogus gurus and professional falsifiers. But they are all honoroble men...(Nice weather now in Spain for talking (EC) about *intergrity* amongst the Financial Analysts, carriers of the new sub-culture of get rich, fast !
2/ Bonds will continue to decline in value for rising interest rates and Permanent depreciation of all currencies.
3/ Cash and permanent depreciation are incompatible.
4/ Real estate/land will receive higher and higher taxing (zero operation).
5/ Other alternatives (antics) do need specific expertise.

And last but not least as justification for storing *wealth* 100% in Physical Gold in Possession is the Puplava argumentation on resources (see Gresham #73343). Fundamentals on the situation as it is and will evolve until inevitable collapse ! Financial collapse. A trendy doom-word, that must be experienced first, before understanding its fullest meaning. The sheeple's realities.

= that part of your assets that is ment for secure transfer to next generation as final destination (I'm getting older > physically that is) and not that part of assets (assets=not wealth) you need for daily living/speculations, sorry investments, etc...
Multiplying confetti with confetti has become an extremely dangerous occupation (speculation)! Forget about *Investment* ! We landed into a financial sub-culture. The derivative on derivative era. The oil-drama will NOT go away. The confetti-currency mismatch, evolves to a final reckoning. The globe...my village. And a big Bravo to all these who are still succesfull in productive speculation and still find sound investments (LT) other than Gold !
The ultimate strength of Gold is that you (theoretically) will never can/will be forced to sell it in catastrophe at a firesale (under)valuation. Compare this with the realities of holding real estate assets (even your own house).
Gold is autonomy > Independance > Individual Freedom !
These aspects are ignored and not enough discussed sufficiantly. We keep to much focus on present / future valuation in terms of currency numbers or digits. As we do the same for the Extreme importance of Crude Oil, without sufficiant alternatives possible, at present.
Pippin
@Belgian
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=2&cid=578&u=/nm/20020414/ts_nm/venezuela_dc_77Good Morning Belgian. Thanks for your instructive post.
I never made the differentiation between and till now. Changes the perspective a bit, indeed.
However, your following sentence:

< = that part of your assets that is ment for secure transfer to next generation as final destination (I'm getting older > physically that is) and not that part of assets (assets=not wealth) you need for daily living/speculations, sorry investments, etc...>>

implies that you NEVER speculate with your the portion of assets you consider as your wealth. Is this what you mean or do I misunderstand this portion of your post ?

Saw that Chavez was back (see URL above). Will be interesting to see the impact on POO next Monday.



Black Blade
Venezuela Chavez On Way Back To Assume Power - Cabello

CARACAS -(Dow Jones)- In a stunning sequence of events, Venezuela 's Hugo Chavez is on his way back to the presidential palace Miraflores in downtown Caracas and is preparing to assume the presidency again, Diosdado Cabello said.


Black Blade: That was one short revolution and counter-revolution. We could see NY Crude Oil prices spike when trading opens. El Presidente may not be too anxious to sell oil to the US after this latest fiasco.
Black Blade
M-East attack supports gold
http://news.24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1167674,00.html
Snippit:

London - Further violence in the Middle East kept gold above the key US$300 an ounce mark in European trade on Friday and analysts saw scope for more gains by the metal, which has already risen 10% this year.

Black Blade: The POG may very well be supported by continuing tensions in the ME. The Saudis have had a telethon for Palestinian martyrs families and raised over $92 million. Obviously sentiment is spreading and intensifying in the region. Yesterday a news crew was able to get into Jenin, West Bank go undetected past Israeli military. They were able to take footage of mass killings and devastation that was at first denied by Israeli sources. This does not look good for Israel's public image especially after having denied the massacre of civilians. Meanwhile bodies are being pulled from collapsed buildings bulldozed by Israeli forces. This will likely help to keep tensions high in spite of a planned Colin Powell � Yasser Arafat meeting today, and therefore the POG and POO may even move higher on Monday.
Black Blade
Terrorist Funding?

The George Dubya Bush people are pushing the idea that terrorists are funded by Americans who buy drugs. Does anyone here think that now while the Saudis and Iraqis are paying funds for families of martyrs lead to another wholly different conclusion?

Since these funds come from many sources including Americans who fill their gas tanks with foriegn petroleum products, I somehow do not think that we will see any truth in advertising from the Government on this. For example, I somehow seriously doubt that we will ever see a Television commercial that states: "Everytime you fill up your gas tank or visit Jiffy Lube for an oil change, you are supporting terrorism".

Nah, I didn't think so. Such hypocrisy from our elected eletists. The point that should be made is that the US is held hostage by the Middle East OPEC oil producers. As I have said many times before - Energy independence is a national security issue. So everytime you go to the gas station to fill that gas tank - keep in mind that you are supporting terrorism - and you don't even get high on that. (just kidding of course)

The point is that "Cheap Oil" is critical to the US economy. Without "Cheap Oil" or more correctly, without abundant "Cheap Energy", we will never see an economic recovery. More so than drugs, Hydrocarbon Man is addicted to oil, and the pusher is not so friendly these days, but then he's the only one who can keep the price "cheap" to feed the addiction. Not a pretty picture. Hmmm...

- Black Blade
OZ
@ Black Blade
Thank you and congratulation for all the nice posts and comments on such a variety of subject.
When do you sleep? G'day from OZ, downunder.
da2g
$$$$$$$$307.9$$$$$$$$$$$
The trend upward for the ancient metal of kings will continue to grind upward despite the best efforts of those suppliers of paper who stand to lose mightily from this trend. An interesting array of forces have arrayed themselves to support the demand for gold, not the least of which may be the price of oil this week upcoming following the interesting "double reverse" revolution (coup d'etat?)in Venezuela.
Black Blade
Re: OZ - Sleep? What's That?

G'day Mate! Thanks for the kind words, I will snooze shortly. I have been writing binge tonight (like many nights) and getting some technical papers and proposals together for a couple of natural gas projects and even a geothermal project in So. California. They may be ready to start in late May or early June. I also have been doing a peer review for an old colleague who has a paper to be published in a professional journal. Meanwhile I have the net tuned in on one computer and writing (and correcting and deleting and ...) on another. What can I say, I'm an insomniac.

It is always good to see some of our friends from OZ drop in. I haven't seen Zenidea for a while and Topaz was here just a couple of days ago. Even a couple of neighborly Kiwis stop by occasionally to say hello. Again thanks. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Rock
My guess is: 307.20
Good day, Rock
Hipplebeck
On the Middle East
Well, it appears to me that the tide is running against Isreal these days. They have to go through the negative press that is coming when people are once again allowed into the closed camps and towns that have been devastated.They are back on their heels in the negotiations and are being seen by the whole world as aggressors right now. The US has taken a few blows lately too. Afghanistan is turning out to be the quagmire that everyone thought it would be, The plot against Cahvez just took a big setback, The president is looking pretty impotent these days, etc.
I expect that Sharon will blow the lid off somehow, either with some mossad or cia terrorism, or by escalating the war agianst the norther border. His only hope is to get a bigger war started, otherwise he is facing the end of the Zionist dream of having the whole country and rebuilding the temple.(the red heifer has been born and confirmed by the rabbis, so things are coming to a head very soon)
That dream isn't going to die without plunging the whole world into a war first.
I do not believe that the usual process of dragging out negotiations while building more settlements is going to work this time, so extending things out into another calming cycle looks like a no go.
The spring is wound about as tight as it can get, the fuse is lit, and the clock is ticking.
PHYSICAL gold is the safe bet. Trading in paper is fun and all, and as long as everyone still thinks that this world situation is going to be solved, it will still work, but as the Zen quote goes:
What happens when an irresistable force hits an immovable object?
The temple mount is the vortex.
Neither side is going to give up on Jerusalem. No matter what else happens, this is the sticking point that cannot be solved. Will they blow up the mosque? Who knows, but please protect yourself and family.
slingshot
contest
$$$$$$$$306.6$$$$$$$$

The POG has not been able to break resistance at $307/$308 and remain. There has been a slow move up with some retracement. On the other hand TPTB have been sucessful in keeping the POG below $305. World events as they are may put the POG in a new support level.

Slingshot
goldenpeace
Price Guessing Contest
$$$$$$$311.90$$$$$$$$
Although the Cabal's short sellers will again be under extreme pressure from diversifying buyers worldwide, the panic will not yet be complete. There is just not enough time to get a higher price by Friday's close ....Maybe the explosion will be the week after.
Blessings
Bowing
slingshot
Siochain Msg# 73335
Sorry to hear.A few prayers coming your way.
goldenpeace
*********Argentinean"Tears"*************
As the Argentineans have learned, when so-called fractional reserve financial "institutions" fail through loss of confidence and overindebtedness, there is often little warning and less recourse....money can be tied up in limbo indefinitely, its return and in what form a question mark.
For U.S. or Japanese bank depositors, not to think that it couldn't happen to them given today's precarious unbalanced financial/derivative economies, is folly. Already we see the Japanese moving to diversify away from the banks and into the one area of the monetary spectrum( and this is the MAIN point for Argentina and anyone else) THAT IS NO ONE ELSES LIABILITY...physical gold....portable and spendable for necessities when other monies are "unavailable". This is what Argentineans with physical gold found when the banks shut down..they were solvent and whole...imagine having Type 1 diabetes and no way to fund critical insulin purchases from the banks or if you did have "paper", still not able to afford due to inflation.
Physical gold, the best insurance.
Blessing
Bowing
Albatros
Hellow !
Greetings from Perth, Western Australia. Have been viewing for some months now, since a Polish gentleman stimulated my interest in physical gold & I became a true believer. Funny about woman's intuition too, my trouble & stife's been saying "buy" for years. Have found the forum very interesting. The sentiments expressed reinforce the Polish experience & my wife's intuition. Thanks to everyone for your illuminating info. Does anyone have any ideas about where the Aussie dollars headed?
Boilermaker
Barron's
The Doug Noland article posted by Sir Gresham today reminded me that I will be ending my 25 years as a Barron's
subscriber. The publication has become so shallow and predictable that recently the only part that I felt worthwhile was Alan Abelson's weekly commentary. His normally contrarian and humorous comments have always been like a beacon amongst the fog of financial euphoria that permeates the rest of the paper. The last straw was a couple of weeks ago when Abelson was commenting on the recent gold run and dismissed it as a temporary phenomenon bound to quickly evaporate.
When Robert Bleiberg was managing editor there was a sense that a much higher moral financial code was in place including frequent reviews of gold. Bleiberg was a strong proponent of gold as the following brief bio suggests:

"Barron's flourished under the direction of Robert M. Bleiberg.

He served as editor for 27 years, from 1954-81. In that time, the weekly's circulation grew fivefold to 300,000. As editor, Mr. Bleiberg read all the copy and wrote a weekly column, which he continued until he retired in 1991.

In total, he spent 45 years at the publication, having joined in 1946 after serving in World War II, during which he was wounded at Okinawa.

In 1980, he was named vice president of the Dow Jones magazine group and also publisher of Barron's.

He was known for supporting a free-market philosophy, one that was cultivated, to some extent, by his encounter with Alan Greenspan and a number of other free-market proponents in 1961.

Mr. Bleiberg reprinted some of Mr. Greenspan's writings after attending a lecture given by the future chairman of the Federal Reserve. Like Mr. Greenspan, an ardent follower of novelist Ayn Rand, Mr. Bleiberg was "persuaded of Rand's rightness," according to a 1995 article in Worth magazine.

But he refused to become more closely aligned with the group of Rand followers, known as the Collective. "It became evident to me that they were a cult or that there was a cultlike atmosphere about them," he said in Worth.

Mr. Bleiberg strongly believed business journalists should pursue a business degree. "To be equipped, to call yourself a business or financial journalist, you should have taken courses in security analysis," he said in the dinner journal commemorating the 50th anniversary of the New York Financial Writers' Association in 1988.

He received the Elliott V. Bell Award in 1985. Mr. Bleiberg died in 1997 at 73."

It's ironic that Bleiberg and Greenspan started on the same page in the 60's. Too bad that Greenspan outlived him.

wiley
Price Guess
The dam is just getting leakier and leakier-it has got to go soon. $$$$$$$$$306.90$$$$$$$$$$$$$
RobotGuy
YIPPIEKAIYAAAYYYYY!!! ANOTHER POG GUESSING CONTEST!!!
I think we should have these contests more often, even without prizes!

Gold has been waiting to blast colourfully upward for a very long time, and as I have been feeling for a long time that it is possible to happen at any moment, next week is as good as any for this to take place. Activity in the ME may act as a trigger, but the cannon has been loaded for a long time even without these crazy tensions. Had there been no suicide attack on the U.S., and none of any of the events that have followed, I am positive we still would have witnessed the changes we have seen in POG, just perhaps over a longer period of time. Investment articles for gold have been more commonplace, and PM touters have been coming out of the woodwork recently. If investers start to get serious about including a small percentage of gold in their portfolios, I think the whole supply/demand scenario will play out quite rapidly, as one our regular posters has made very clear to me. If Americans decide they want something, they expect to have it NOW! and rightly so. If they are told they'll have to wait twelve weeks for delivery because inventories are low I think the POG will indeed explode.
I believe next week is as good as any for the beginning of true precious metal valuation.

$$$$338.70$$$$ will be an indication that gold is going to go somewhere and is as valid to me as any other number:)

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.
Boilermaker
$$$$$$$$$$317.40$$$$$$$$$$$
I echo the cheers for Gandalf and MK for the contests at hand. May the best goldbugs win!!

POG guess;
Thats my birthday number. Besides, we've been watching this $300 war for too long. Time for the good guys to push through to the next level.
slingshot
********* Argentinean Tears ***********
The Argentines have learned that some things are not carved in stone. That things are not what they appeared to be and who can you trust? They have learned that their greatest financial institutions constructed from steel and concrete are built on a foundation of paper. Their dreams and aspirations stolen from them overnight.By what right do these
institutions have to steal my hard earned wealth?,they shall asked. I make the money! is the reply. It is only paper which you put your trust. Why do you complain so? The hardship now begins . To be at the mercy of governments whim to devalue or inflate. They have learned that now their lives could be in jeopardy as social unrest takes place.
What have we to learn from the tears of the Argentines?

We must first learn how to learn.


We believe that our institutions are to big to fall and that it will never happen here. Therefore we see the trouble brewing but fail to take action. We have been brain washed into a false security and that the government will take care of us. And so we assume no respondsibility for our actions.
The Argentinean woes are just another trailsign along the way. Asian Contagion, Japan, ME, Venezuela and others.
And there will be others! Yet we refuse to admit that there will be and fail to learn how to learn to read the signs.
Gold and its capabilities was one lesson that was learned
the hardway by most Argentineans.

If you are reading this you can rest assured you are at the right place and over time you will acquire some very good study habits. In turn you will learn how to learn to read the the trailsigns.

Slingshot---------------------------<>






USAGOLD
Boilermaker. . . . .Robert Bleiberg . . . Some thoughts on your important post and an old Bleiberg story that's always stuck with me
I agree with you on Barron's. There was a time when I would go to the Tattered Cover bookstore, take a chair and read a book and wait for that publication to arrive on Saturdays -- a part of my weekly ritual. Now, I wouldn't walk across the street for it. Robert Bleiberg was one of those gritty financial reporter types of a by-gone age who took nothing at face value. Much of what is now being exposed on Wall Street -- the greed, arrogance, crimes and humiliation -- would have been fertile ground for criticism when Bleiberg was the editor there and exposed long ago. Particularly the arrogance, because I'm sure he would have pointed out that it is from there that all other financial sins proceed. He would have seen exposing the Wall Street's dirty backwash as part and parcel of the newspaper's mission to protect the integrity and reputation of Wall Street. He had his moral gyro in motion at all times not just when someone else in the press tripped it for him. Barron's now has some clever writers, and in the case of Alan Abelson a very good writer, but overall, it lacks the depth present when Bleiberg was editor -- morally and intellectually. Intellectually, Barron's has become essentially the New-Ager against which it occasionally rails. And morally, it comes around only when the hounds are at the door and there's no choice but to throw them a carcass or two as ritual offering. All in all, Barron's is a shadow of its former self and not a very well defined one at that.

Bleiberg had trouble with Wall Street's analysts long before the Henry Blodgett's of the world inflicted heavy damage to investor portfolios. I remember when he had a stock picking contest for Wall Street researchers and they all made their entries replete with reams of analysis, charts, graphs and justification. Bleiberg made an entry as well only he did his picking a little differently. He hung a copy of the Barron's stock page on the wall and threw darts at it. Where they landed was what he picked. When the results came in Bleiberg was near the top and he had very effectively make his point. I don't recall Barron's telling that story before the shoe dropped on Wall Street's market engineers. They may tell it now -- Johnny-Come-Lately's that they are.

This morning Gretchen Morgenstern reveals more on General Electric in the New York Times. The stock plummeted again even after the latest convoluted balance sheet renderings hit Wall Street. It seems that GE told the world its earnings had risen 17%. When the earnings were fully quantified by outside analysis, GE earnings actually fell 2.7%. Says Morgenstern, ". . .gone are the days when investors accepted at face value what corporate managers told them about their businesses and their books." Indeed, but its already too late for most investors. GE considered a conservative, blue chip stock is down nearly 40% over the last 52 weeks and almost 50% from the 2000 high -- a symbol of the wreckage behind the scenes on Wall Street.

Mr Gresham
"Ze Bed Eccents" Come Home to Roost?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APLlu7RadVmVuZXp1"Chavez said his captors didn't maltreat him, rejecting comments by his ally Brigadier General Raul Beduel who had said that Chavez required medical treatment after being beaten during his confinement. "

(I should have copied the middle of the night's version which mentioned him needing liver and kidney treatment after the beatings.)

"Zose bungling eediots! I tolt zem "Be shuah to de-LIVER ze Pekkige -- NOT to beat him in ze LIVER! Zey vere supposed to drop him OUT of ze helicopter -- NOT to drop him OFF in ze helicopter!"

K. Associates -- Terminating inconvenient democratically-elected governments for over 30 years!



Knallgold
$$$$296.6$$$$ (Gold price contest)
I learned from Don_L. that the June futures/options are very important for the paper (anti)-Gold players and they always "win" it.So I expect POG to be fixed here preemptively for another while,as June options expire 10. May.
Gandalf the White
In case you missed it ! ---- TWO CONTESTS
The Hobbits say "NAW, HOW could they have missed all those TRUMPETS blasting late last night ?"
WELL, just in case, here it is again !
AND, thanks you earlybirds for the GREAT start of posts on both of the CONTESTS.
<;-)
====================

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MDT) on Friday, April 19th. We stand at the time of numerous world calamities, a time of feeling peoples pain, a time of needing to stop and think what the future might bring to you and your family. We have all seen pictures and read stories of the financial pain of the people of Argentina, so Sir MK asks:

"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines ?"

We ask contestants to treat the present potential economic, and political status, together with the recent Argentine financial scenario, as a basis for their entry thinking. Your Contest post must be at least 50 words and it must contain in the subject box the following:

******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

(Note the surrounding STARS !)

The "GRAND PRIZE" will be an Argentina 5 Peso "Argentino" gold coin, over 100 years old and containing 0.2334 troy ounces of gold. There will also be two "runners-up" who will receive Prizes of a one ounce silver Canadian Maple Leaf coin.

(Did you see that you Silverhearts ?) <;-)

We wish you good luck, good fortune. . . . . .And. . . . .

Let the contest begin!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


The COMEX JUNE '02 (GC2M) FRIDAY, April 19th Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
--
THE RULES --

1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)

3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 18th.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.


THE PRIZES !!

To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argenitine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!

The Ol'e Wiz is seeing that there will be over one hundred entries this time, so do not wait toooo long before you make that claim of the correct settlement price !!
In order to start things off in the correct direction, the Hobbits shall make their entry SOON. BTW, Friday's GC2M settlement price was $302.9 and over 110,000 contracts are "Open".

GOOD LUCK ALL !
<;-)
balzac
April 19 th prediction!!
IMHO The cabal will take advantage of the current lull in
ME fighting to put downward pressure on Gold, much to my personal dismay. However we will overcome at some point in the future
and if my guess is exceeded by $10. I will be very happy.
As a result I will guess $$$$$$298.6$$$$$$$.
Balzac.
Shermag
$$$$$$$$345.0$$$$$$$
I thought I should grab that price soon, before someone else gets it.
Gandalf the White
GOLD Price Guessing Contest PROGRESS REPORT !!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
GUESSES (to date) in order of DECENDING Value
---
$$$$345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argenitine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
=====
OK ALL -- The EARLY "Guessers" have outlined the range !! Be sure to enter your prognostication before someone takes your lucky guess. What is it that is said about holding your breath until one turns "BLUE"? Turn "GOLDEN" soon.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
<;-( ---FIRST GOOF !
DARN POOR "cut and paste" job you dumb Ol'e Wiz !
the End for Guesses is Thursday, APRIL 18th at HIGH NOON, Denver, CO TIME ! (NOT in Feb.)
<;-)
Hipplebeck
$$$$$302.9$$$$$
We are not going down because of the tension in the Middle East, but we are not going up because inflation is not yet recognized.
Albatros
$$$$305.0$$$$
I'm guessing..........
nickel62
My guess
$$$$308.5$$$$
Boilermaker
************Argentinean "Tears"***********

The world has become a financial jungle. There are greedy and hungry beasts afoot who will devour the unlucky souls who disregard the danger. The traps are set. The hapless quarry that grazes contentedly by the waterhole of largesse is but a predator's leap from ruin. There is no protective cover for the unwary. There is no safety net that will protect them from the attack. There is only one way to avoid the carnage. The survivors will create their own shield for financial and personal safety before the attack.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Que as Nada.........
So Hugo Chavez just steps in off the porch and reclaims the throne. First it was a cue but now it was a temporary leave of absence. "I didn't know they liked me, sorry for all the blood in the streets, guess I'll be your El Presidente one more time." Sort of makes me want to kry.
Belgian
@ Pippin
There is a *time* for everything Sir. Entered the financial world as a novice in 1980. It was the interest rates (16%) and Gold (850$) bonanza and a disaster on stock valuations ! Realized that all good stocks were priced at give away valuations and each and everyone could make his/her choice at zero risk ! Locking in AAA bonds for 10 years at above 12% returns was very attractive and rewarding. Gold behaved foolishly and was a pure momentumplay as stocks have been behaving for the past decade. I was lucky and accumulated some excess fiat.

Today it is the complete reverse situation. Bonds at rockbottom returns, stocks skyhigh and obscenely overvalued (all of them) and all cash just waiting for a dramatic loss in purchasing power (hyperinflation-financial collapse).

What to do and/or where to risk that saved confetti ?
Answer : What is and always was so very precious and is at a rockbottom price as antipode of the 1980 extravaganza ?
GOLD, Physical Gold ! And on top of this economic given, we have these terrific fundamental prospects/probabilities (TG) for Future Valuation of aboveground refined Gold ! Now it is high time to exchange continiously that gathered/produced/saved confetti asset into an eternal store of WEALTH . Yes, surely there is still room for speculative roll on roll offs (derivatives). But the whole psychology about Gold today is exactly the same as the one that reigned in 1980-ies on stocks : FEAR...enormous Fear and doubt ! That's my favorite environment for wise and rewarding action with a high reward for minimal risk.
Hope I made it somewhat more comprehensable. Regards to you Sir.

The Venezuela flip-flop coup d'�tat around the fourth biggest oil producer is Grandioze ! Hugo doubled oil-taxes to be resistributed amongst the poor (?). Something similar is in the make for Arabian moslims. Depleting oil reserves and higher consumption will evolve into a socialisation (?) of the remaining oil reserves ! A higher and higher POO will reach a critical point (+35$) and than we must not forget the possibility of euro for oil !!!! Oil will become more than just a resource commodity. Like it or not.
Osama already made his calculations and named the figure of 144$ per barril. The Chavez razmattaz will not pass unnoticed for all oil producers in the third world. The focus on the dollar will follow ! My intuition only but taking a more reality form, with the evolving daily events.
Will see how oil-futures react this week ?
The american jewish community, integrated into the powerfull financial houses, will put more pressure on Bush's attitude towards the Israel/ME escalation. Presidents have been killed for less than the possible mistakes that Bush could make in his coming policies. Sorry for mentioning such a terrible thought.
Believer
Believer
$$$$321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02)
Max Rabbitz
Information Technology: The good, bad, and the ugly
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020412-fri.html#anchor0I just read Friday's column by Stephen Roach addressing the "new redundancy creeping into corporate cost structures" from use of the new Information Technology systems. I then looked at the Email addresses at my small University of 4000 students. We currently have 25 employees listed for the Office of Information Technology. Up go the tuitions. It's been about a 4-5% increase per year.

Also, I noted the speculation about whether the CIA were involved in the Chavez removal. I doubt higher oil taxes had much to do with it. Venezuelan oil companies are nationalized and Chavez was putting his politicized cronies onto the boards, who would further devastate the energy infrastructure. Many Venezuelans understand the damage done by the man who wants to follow the Cuban model. Yet socialism is still the opiate of the masses in much of South\Central\North America.

Closer to home we have our own "progressive" politicians who shoot from the hip. Cynthia McKinney (U.S. Rep. from Georgia) believes George Bush planned 9/11 to make money for his Carlyle business interests. Lots of strange things can be found on the internet. Anyone can set up a site and put out half truths. It seems to be true that U.S. fighters were not sent up immediately to shoot down the 4th plane. Conspiracists claim they did not have to wait for Presidental OK to shoot down a commercial airliner and that they didn't immediately scramble shows that they were deliberately held back. Not so. Although it was once true that no Presidental OK was needed to shoot down any plane considered a threat this changed when the American Aegeus Cruiser shot down an Iranian commercial airplane over the Persian Gulf back in the 1980's, effectively ending the Iraq-Iranian war. I believe the no-shoot directive has now been dropped after 9/11.

Ms. McKinney would find more substance should she set her sights on the Gold manipulation story or the huge silver short by a few big players. Without the internet and especially this site I wouldn't have had a clue. I'd also have far less physical.
Believer
I forgot to include my reason with my guess.
$$$$321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02)
Because I need it to happen. It's been a real-lly long time in coming.
Pippin
$$$$$$307.3$$$$$
My guess.
Black Blade
What Comeback?
http://www.nypost.com/business/45519.htm
Snippit:

The latest market action comes as no surprise to veteran market watcher Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters - a man worth listening to - since he first started on Wall Street in 1958. Russell has been right since his 1999 forecast - calling the burst of the market bubble and correctly predicting its aftermath.

Back in 1999, Russell, warned of a bear market that would be "long, tedious, grinding and painful." And he hasn't been convinced by any comeback since 9/11. Rather, Russell says big money has been selling heavily into this rally. And he's not just talking institutions and mutual funds - but corporate insiders.

Since last summer, insider sales have swamped purchases by a gaping margin of 12-to-1.

Come to think of it, when was the last time you heard of a big CEO bellying up to the table to buy a big chunk of stock?


Black Blade: I really don't see any economic recovery either. It is frustration to listen to the Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls spewing about how rosy things are or will be (always next quarter � holding out that proverbial carrot on a stick). The signals are so obvious that for the life of me, I cannot understand how they think that the people can be fooled over and over. Trading volumes have been falling for the last several weeks (and especially so this last week).

Then to hear idiots (maybe they are just looking at the world through rose-colored glasses) claim that energy is no longer important to the economy (just try working in the dark or manually carrying merchandise from NY to LA). Corporate earnings are almost nonexistent, corporate debt is rising, interest rates are rising, consumers are tapped out, there is now the threat of rising inflation, energy supply is in doubt going forward due to lack of exploration and production, the Soviet era style energy grid is antiquated and falling apart, etc. I suppose that hope springs eternal because based on the facts I just don't see any economic recovery on the horizon.
Cavan Man
Contest Guess
$999.00 What are we guessing about and does it really matter? Time is our friend.
Belgian
@ Max Rabbitz
The hidden truth(s) about the 9/11 atrocity will cause a lot of incomprehensible (unexplicable) twists and turns in coming events. The truth will never be exposed to the general public openly, but will be used (abused) at high level as (classic) extorsion methods in the ever ongoing struggle and lust for power. 9/11 is certainly not the first and regrettebly not the last of events with dramatic/cruel consequences for the future. This remark is not ment as the start of a polemic but rather as a hint for facing harsh and complicated realities.
It is an ugly world out there. And indeed, look at what they have done to our Gold...
Regards. Belgian.
Creosote
Guess
$$$$$304.0$$$$$$ I expect peace proposal will drop safe-hedge demand.
The Invisible Hand
ECOFIN: Economic Recovery On Track Despite Oil Price
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20020414/bs_dowjones/ecofin__economic_recovery_on_track_despite_oil_priceIn yesterday's message# 73334, I wondered what would come of the three day meeting of EU finance ministers as the European Commission criticised dot.com recommendations. Well, here it is:
OVIEDO, Spain -(Dow Jones)- European Union (news - web sites) officials said over the weekend that economic recovery remains on track as the unexpected speed of the U.S. rebound should offset any drag from higher oil prices on European growth.
Finance ministers also sent a signal to the European Central Bank not to prematurely raise rates as inflationary pressures remain under control. "It's clear that with the present range of oil prices, ... the effects are very limited on growth and prices," said Spanish Foreign Minister Rodrigo Rato, whose country holds the rotating E.U. presidency.
�.
Buena Fe
Ousted Venezuela president returns
http://www.msnbc.com/news/735910.asp?cp1=1U.S. WARNING
The United States, which did not condemn the military coup that ousted Chavez, greeted his return on Sunday with a stern message that his policies were not working and he should be more responsive to his people.
"I hope Hugo Chavez takes the message that his people sent him that his own policies are not working for the Venezuelan people," National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
"We do hope that Chavez recognizes that the whole world is watching and that he takes advantage of this opportunity to right his own ship which has been moving, frankly, in the wrong direction for quite a long time," Rice said.
----------------------------------------------------

I am not suggesting that H Chavez is an angel, but the hipocrasy of the "cabal" (US politic/financial/IMF) has (IMHO) reached the point/moment when "God in Heaven" intervenes!!!!!

I "sence" (esoteric I know) that His "swift answer" approacheth.

The Ven. flop has shown many world leaders (emboldening them) that the cabal is losing power (soon to crash).

get gold fast (the horseman are here)
IGWA
Heard it all before....
I've been lurking here for a few weeks, and I like you guys - you make me smile with your total enthusiasm and unwavering belief in gold.

Of course, you, or people like you, have been saying the same things for YEARS!

Just take a look at the archives on this site going back to 1998. They could be re-posted today, word for word and you'd never know the time difference!

There's other stuff, newsletters etc going back much longer, again saying the same things about gold. And again, PROVED (by subsequent events) totally WRONG�

Don't misunderstand me. I'm certain we're in for a massive break-down - financially, economically, and that of society generally. Scary stuff on the horizon. But you under- estimate the power, determination & ruthlessness of governments under threat.

Gold is the enemy of governments, because it's a constraint upon their profligacy. It prevents them creating money out of thin air, and transferring wealth from the productive, to the unproductive. They don't want that and will go to any lengths to prevent it. If you think democratic governments are benign, think again.

In America, WACO & Ruby Ridge come to mind domestically; internationally, is there anything the USA government wouldn't do? (all for the good of the nation, or to save the world, of course. Tick appropriate box).

Other countries have their own examples of benign, democratic governments resorting to ultimate force, when sufficiently provoked (re-action to WTO demos are a case in point. Here in Australia the authorities sure gave them a good whack, and hey!, our government is really benign!)

Governments can, if they have a mind to, ban the buying, selling or holding of gold. That would be nothing new. They can, if they decide, by 'World Decree', close down every gold mine in the entire world and fill them with cement. That would be new. In a world- wide crisis, governments of all persuasions will act in unison to protect their power and privilege. New laws will be draconian. Politicians don't resign. And governments won't take prisoners.

I don't know what will happen - maybe a true 'World Government' and new a 'World Currency' - but it will be totally & completely unexpected and probably utterly shocking. Can't happen? The really big events are seldom generally predicted. 9/11 for one. It's also certain that (even more) freedoms that we take for granted will be lost.

But what ever happens in response to the coming crisis, it won't be gold 'going to the moon'. Not for long, anyway. Not if my assessment of governments is anyway close.

Whatever the response, it'll be sold to the sheeple as for their own good, and the sheeple, very afraid, confused, weak & ignorant, will buy it and be happy.

So as I was saying, I like you guys - you accurately observe & interpret financial & economic events, apply logic & intelligence and the result is you're sold on gold. You're right�but wrong by not taking into account likely unprecedented government action to protect their rear ends at any cost. IMHO, of course.

BTW, I'll bet most of you guys were Y2K horders, right? And you've probably used up your supplies by now? Sell your gold & gold shares now while you still can, and buy more tins of beans and boxes of candles. They'll be worth more, and useful too.
Regards all




timbervision
Black Blade
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htmBlack Blade, as bad as the 12:1 ratio sounds it doesn't even begin to tell the whole story of the lopsidedness of insider trades. From the Crosscurrents web site, in the 30 Dow Industrial companies,

"...the average buy transaction took in 3870 shares while the average sale dumped 241,057 shares, a ratio of 62.3-1. It gets still worse! A grand total of 89,000 shares were purchased versus a grand total of 33,989,000 sold, a ratio of 381.9 shares sold to each share purchased!"
slingshot
IGWA Msg#73408
Heard it all before. Welcome. Always nice to hear from down under. Enjoyed your post. Just have a couple of revisions to make.

Will not turn in my guns.
Will not turn in my Gold. PERIOD!

Slingshot-----------------------<> Confiscation.
RAP
$$$$$$$$$$$300.00$$$$$$$$$$
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Unless something major happens this week the price will not be allowed to go out of the $300 -$305 range. If something major does happen, all bets are off.
Trapper
My gold guess
$$$$303.80$$$My reason is the next big jump will be because of the Iran invasion. I don't think we will be ready to invade until at least the end of the month.

Blak Blade.. The drug comercials made me laugh too. We should have comericals like a young girl filling her car and says "I just helped Saudis pay for more hate schools. Next the older man " I just helped pay the family of a homicide bomber". Live smal..
RJ
rsjacksr
Contest
$$$$$339.00$$$$$
Sierra Madre
IGWA....You had better stop lurking....

STOP now! Right now!

Otherwise, good sir, you'll find yourself stuck in this group and will no longer be able to say "you guys" but will begin to talk about "we" and "us".

As it is, you are already showing dangerous symptoms of goldbugitis by lurking here. And, you have already posted. I'm afraid you've caught it.

And believe me, IGWA, all you say - we already know it.

Stay away! It's for your own good. No further warnings!

Sierra
slingshot
Sierra Madre Msg#73414
IGWAYepper, he's a Goldbug. Just doesn't know�9���9�
slingshot
Sierra Madre Msg#73414
IGWAYepper, he's a Goldbug. Just doesn't know it yet.
Slingshot--------------<>
The CoinGuy
$$$$$297.9$$$$$

My charts don't seem to be clear on the direction of the market, so I thought I'd just go with the easier method.

First price that popped into my head, and after confirming it wasn't on the list. Took a sip of java, thought about it for a second, then decided to run with it...

Good luck to all,

The CoinGuy
The CoinGuy
This is interesting...Disney being called another Enron?
http://www.drudgereport.com/mattnf.htmDEEP, DEEP POOH-POOH: FINKE LAWSUIT CLAIMS DISNEY IN ENRON-LIKE COVER UP

**Exclusive Details*

Here's one you won't be reading on Page Six.

A reporter fired by the NEW YORK POST after WALT DISNEY CO complained about two of her stories filed a $10 million breach of contract and slander lawsuit late Friday against DISNEY, NEWS CORP and the POST.

Pierce O'Donnell of O'Donnell & Shaffer represents Nikki Finke in the action, which alleges DISNEY is trying to cover up financial perils from shareholders by trying to silence reporters like Finke.

"This really is ENRON all over again!" notes one legal source.

(rest of the story at the link above)


I'm expecting a slew of these are hiding in the woodworks,

The Coin(physical)Guy
CoBra(too)
@IGWA
Just feel like to welcome you to the forum - even if if you
might snicker after reading for a few months - and yes, some of your observations ring true and even your suggested outcome ... may, unfortunately, come true!

Nah, not in the long, or is it now short run!

Well, let me tell you, we've effectively had a true world government since the Bretton Woods Agreement and the only ones to default was the US of A in 1971- of course, after defaulting in 1933 on their own citizens and the constitution.

- The system brought despair and unfair competition to the poorest, though some of the most productive countries were blamed to overindulgence of debt - by the IMF and some such institutions - working for the FED and its masters.

... And as history clearly states - an empire built on nothing but debt - no matter how great the "defense" capability" - is doomed. - And the winner is the US of A.

Ok, back to economic matters. The world is awakening to the fact, that they're exporting their goods to the consumer of last resort - and, yes, still relying upon it, for their own delusion. ... And delusion it is, as the US has nothing, but paper, based on debt to pay for it.

Sorry, Sir, sounds a bit harsh - as I know the're lots of other values like R&D, financial and other services and a lot of RE to reckon.

Done that, been there - and stepping up my gold purchases, while even being a citizen of the EU - see u cb2

neer-do-well
preparation
$$$$$325$$$$$ not a penny less

Good idea to be ready for the bottom line, for me it's a root wad in SE Alaska's wilderness zone. I can be quite confortable in a medium sized bundle of roots.

Grubstaker: Thanks for the greeting the other day!
YGM
IGWA.
Welcome to the ongoing Gold Ownership support group :>)If I may can I put a couple aspects of your perceptions in another light. (more simply put by me as I'm a simple guy)
Lets say if we agree that the Bankers (CB's) control basicaly the world, and if they knew they would lose control because of a total financial collapse (due to all the fiat in existance created from 'airy nothing') and many other factors we are aware of and some we're not (probable) they might want something more tangible than just the assets they would invariably seize due to said collapse, which I must stress is just about everything we see looking up and down the average street, from Homes, Businesses, Vehicles, Land, Toys, etc. etc. Now we know they already (in recent years) control about 30% of the worlds gold bullion and 70% is in private hands. So if you want to control what history has proven to be the greatest asset of value for 3000 yrs, first you would try to corner all that "Private Gold". Now how would you keep the fiat at a high value and depress the price of the yellow metal you lust after. Obviously you lead the sheep away from reality
into the bubble and easy money, bash Gold with a never ending stream of bad press and while waiting for the enevitable repeat of 1929 you secretly accumulate Gold and quite probably Silver also. I realize the actual scenario of such an ongoing fleecing as I'm proposing here is far, far and away more complicated than that which I've just described if in fact it is really taking place. As I said before I'm just a simple guy with (obviously) no economics education, nor am I gifted with much writing ability. I see things in a very uncomplicated way IMHO. In closing just let me say the foggier the the trail becomes for some, the clearer it is for others. I hope you get to the trails end w/ all those who hope for the best and "Prepare for the Worst".......YGM.
VanRip
Contest
$$$$304.50$$$$
Commercials will try to keep price below 305 to save their hides as long as they can, perhaps waiting for some news that will propel price lower.
R Powell
IGWA
Hello,
You reminded us that we've been waiting for years for the POG (and silver!) to start some serious move to the upside. As of now, it simply has not happened.

You stated, "There's other stuff, newsletters etc. going back much longer, again saying the same things about gold. And again, PROVED (by subsequent events) totally WRONG"

I believe you have stated the totally efficient market theory that states that all past analysis calling for any prices other than what the actual prices were, is therefore obviously wrong, proved wrong by the price. It also states that the current market price is correct and has taken everything into account to arrive at that price. Therefore, analysis is useless.
Jessie Livermore once said, "Markets are never wrong, opinions are." This is much closer to what IMHO determines prices. No markets are totally efficient.
There is an analogy of two Wall St. investors walking down a busy New York street. The first points out a one hundred dollar bill on the sidewalk but the second, a totally efficient market believer, simply walks on by saying, "It can't be a real hundred because, if it were, someone on this busy street would have already picked it up."
Indeed, it has been the lack of price rationing (higher prices) which analysts expected based on the supply/demand fundamentals that has created the intense interest in the POG and POS among some analysts. This discrepency was the driving force behind Bill Murphy's and others intense interest in the gold market. We are still very few in number but the facts underlying the analysis have been confirmed, by all means other than (as you point out) price. Something is obviously not right. It almost shakes the supposition that these metals trade in a "free" market!?! Have you considered this possibility?
I also think that your statement that low price belies analysis is an extremely common belief among investors both large and small, especially those with no sense of history- whether lived through or studied. Precious metals as an investment or store of value are so far off the radar screen of the vast majority that they receive no consideration at all. Goldbugs as you say are somewhat diehard. This should not surprise you, we are the "last of the breed" and extremely small in number among the investment world. We are the only ones left who believe in precious metals for both much higher value in fiat equivalent and as a monetary basis of some sort to control government's expansion of power at the expense of liberty. Have you ever thought of contrarian investment theory?
Thanks for stating you thoughts. Keep them coming.
Rich
YGM
Contest...
$$$$305.50$$$$I still feel the (Bill Murphy) $5.00 rule is working in the reverse now, only it the buyers controling it not the shorts....So I'll stay below 308 307 level. Would love to
make it a $350. guess, but it'll come soon enough!...YGM
R Powell
And in silver
I remember an analogy of silver in regards to it's lack of price movement.
Silver investors and commercial users are like thirsty people all drinking from the spigot of a huge rain collecting barrel. Not one of them has ever thought of lifting the lid to check on the water level and there's a good chance no one will until the spigot no longer delivers.
"What do you mean there's not enough!"
"Oh don't worry. At $10.00/ounce I'm sure there will be enough."
Are you sure?
I'm sure there has been 12 years in a row of supply/demand deficit. I'm sure that the world's above ground storage has been severely depleted. I'm sure primary silver mining production has been cut back due to lack of profitability from low silver prices. I'm sure this situation can not continue much longer without price rationing (one-two years?) I'm sure demand for silver has been increasing, year over year.
I believe the POS is going higher. Hey, Rich, how can your analysis determine that when people have been saying exactly that for years and it hasn't happened yet? Yeh, I know. Why isn't POS already $15.00/ounce??
Hey Wiz, exactly HOW much silver do the hobbits have stashed away?
Rich

Jon
Argentinian Tears
******299.9****** because "they" don't want to lose control and will go to all necessary means to maintain status quo.
IGWA
Replies to my gold bug friends....
Co Bra (too)
Thanks for the welcome; didn't intend to 'snicker' - sorry it came out like that. It was meant to be 'respectful & empathetic but surprised you don't realise Big Brother has some real big sticks behind his back'? Agree re world government - but we 'ain't seen nothin' yet�

Sierra Madre.
Hi. I got over the bug, feeling quite well now, thanks.. And if what I say is 'likely to be true', aren't you sticking your head in the sand?

Rich Powell
What a thoughtful response - thanks. I'm not arguing that gold isn't a store of value, or that it will not increase dramatically in price. Equally, Bill Murphy (and many others) are I'm sure quite correct in stating that the POG has been manipulated. As you say, 'something definitely is not right'.

That fact (the manipulation) is at the core of what I'm trying to say: If the government (and/or its agents) will go to those lengths now, what will they do when things really start to get out of hand, and their very 'raison d'etre' is threatened?

Governments, and a gold standard (or even general world-wide acceptance of gold as a store of value - basically the same thing - are mutually exclusive. They cannot co-exist.

As the crisis deepens, and the POG rockets, governments will have to act or capitulate. They will have to choose watching everything they stand for turn to ashes, or go for broke.

They already lie, cheat & steal. Are they going to stop all that and start being (unemployed) good guys?

What do you think?

PS Contrarian investing is watching as POG heads north at a rate of knots, with every man and his dog jumping on board, and cashing out just before the govt closes the game down. Too exciting for me. I'll watch it on TV, eating my tin of beans.






sector
Barrick to Sell Half its Production at US$365
Barrick to sell half gold output this yr at US$365

MELBOURNE, April 15 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp (Toronto:ABX.TO - news) said on Monday it will sell half its gold output this year at a minimum price of US$365 dollars an ounce, with the balance to be sold on the spot market.

``That extra gold exposure to gold prices means that for every 25 dollar increase in the gold price we will see earnings and cashflow increase by 70 million this year alone,'' Randall Oliphant, chief executive office of Barrick said in a speech to be delivered later on Monday in Melbourne.

For 2002 Oliphant said Barrick will mine about 5.7 million ounces at an average cash cost of US$167 dollars an ounce. Oliphant said gold miners worldwide needed to increase marketing efforts to support any long term increase in the bullion price.

``Our industry can no longer ignore the role of modern marketing in driving consumer demand than it can act in isolation from the forces of consolidation,'' Oliphant said.

Over the last year or two some of the world's largest mining companies have merged in a bid to increase their mine reserves of gold.

In February, U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM - news) compleated a A$4.2 billion dollar ($2.24 billion) takeover of Normandy mining which was Australia's largest gold miner.

Barrick last year merged with Homestake Mining to become one of the world's largest gold mining companies with a market capitalisation of around US$10 billion.

About 55 percent of its production comes from mines in the United States and Canada. Barrick, like some other gold miners, sells a portion of its output at pre-fixed prices, a practice know as gold hedging.

The bullion price, which averaged around US$273 an ounce last year was last bid at US$300.80 an ounce, underpinned by the latest tension in the middle east and the higher oil price.

Barrick shares closed at 28.18 Canadian dollars on Friday.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This suggests two scenarios (1) a pog rise to an average of $365 for the remainder of 2002 or (2) an immediate USD$ devaluation of 20% from today's $302. [Bob Chapman has a reliable source that has predicted #2]

Should #2 be the one, then they [The government Thugs at Barrick/USTreasury] may try to hold the price there as long as they can...hoping to lure more central bank gold selling into the market.

The effort to manage gold has succeeded only since June 1996. Now it is on the verge of a collapse with totally unpredictable consequences other than a gold price at levels that now seem as unsupportable as the dot com stocks posted in 1999. POG may not stop even at those levels...we will be in uncharted waters.

This release along with last week's Anglogold hedge closure announcement all but settles the issue as to the immediacy of a big move up in gold...it's now a done deal.
goldquest
Contest
$$$$337.30$$$$
My previous guesses on other contests have usually been about $40 too high! So this time, my choice was $377.30. I subtracted the $40 and Bingo! It's gonna close exactly at $337.30.
IGWA
(No Subject)
73421YGM
Hi. They won't lose control - they'll gain total control, using whatever means it takes (what did that guy in the funny suit say about power?)

When they have total control, they won't need gold, yours or theirs.

Got to do some work now!!
Cheers!
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
The 1998 Novocaine-fix will wear off in Asia.
Hello IGWA, yes it is amazing how the nation states are able to perpetuate their own power with all the smoke and mirrors known to man. We have some undercurrents and dynamics in world trade that cannot be ignored. The iceberg never moved and the cut along the hull was thin. Titanic still went under. Asian contagion has never gone away. It was postponed by international banksters who jumped in to give them a blood transfusion (loans) in exchange for their firstborn male child (compounding interest payments). The markets in the US are saturated with goods. This is why the deflationary spiral was more like the depression of the 1870's than like the 1930's. We can import deflation and export our inflation. Pendulums swing back however. With saturated markets the Asian tigers cannot repay their loans. Winter of 1998 will probably occur all over again. Like a haunted house with no rubber bars in the last cage. Their only game is to cut each other's throats to sell you the last CD-rom burner, the last camcorder, the next vehicle to sit next to the last vehicle that sits in the back of your yard. So what will all the export driven economies do? They will suffer 1930's style depressions as unemployed wanderers (eventually) while we import their products for next to nothing. The pain level they can endure is high but so are their aspirations. The China trade is the only thing keeping the US out of the dustbowl. China has people who will basically work for food. No other economy in Asia is cheaper for labor costs. So as the imports dry up as Americans don't need to buy much of anything, the Chinese government WILL devalue the yuan to remain the lowest cost producer simply to keep themselves at full employment. You see Japan playing a cheap yen strategy. China does not like that, neither does Korea. They want the Japanese to sub-out the contracts to them because they are cheaper. So as the yen gets cheaper and cheaper eventually China will retaliate and devalue their yuan. The big tiger slaps the little tigers into submission. You think Japan is strong? Not when they can't sell anything and have to maintain supply lines that crisscross the globe by ship. The mideast crisis will pale in comparison to the instability in Asia when these next "bouts" of currency devaluations occur. It is only a matter of time.
The only way they can get out is to form a currency bloc and this is what Japan could have done when it was strong. Now they will still seek to form a currency bloc but they will have to share more with China. Sort of in Britian's shoes only in Asia. The US defends them but they have to eventually form a union with China because they cannot compete with Chinese labor, nor with S. American labor. Asia will become destabilized because of their export driven economic model which they must adopt because they lack resources compared to the sizes of their populations. If they cannot export they will literally starve. This does not portend towards stability. The whole world calls the USA "the engine" but the engine is just sitting on the tracks while the crew cuts down trees for more fuel. The folks in the coach cars will be screaming of hunger pains before they show up with the first wood. Americans are so far in debt OR they are turning into savers and refuse to take on more debt. Either way they are not spending money, "It will be cheaper next month honey". The hypothetical scenarios can wind out in many directions. Remember, next to Argentina is Brazil. Brazil is the giant of S. America and we aren't going to be pulling their coach cars either. When Brazil hits the skids like Argentina, it will cause serious financial hemmorage at whatever banks are exposed to their loans. That is not a wild card. It can be known who is more exposed to Brazil's loans. The EU or the USA? Sorry fans the tango is over no more chairs in this room. They can rewrite the loans but still, DOES any bank write a mortgage for a house for a guy with no job? We need cash flow ratios for loan approval. Oops sorry cheap steel, no cash flow there. Trade wars lead to real wars. Tarriff games threaten loan payback probabilities. Like waves in surfing come through in "sets". So these debt crisis relapses come in waves too,(my own theory). Feel free to critique this if you see another angle. Ravi Batra's wave theories are not ludicrous just because they are so long. Elliot waves can be seen anywhere. There is a delay, then a buildup, then a breakout of honking in a traffic jamb.
So, in conclusion, it's not what you read in the news that matters. It's all the news that's too scarey to print that matters. And it can only be perceived because it is never stated only alluded to. When the truth surfaces and the evil truth supressors are exposed it causes panic. How many cars do you see on people's lawns for sale at giveaway prices? Are markets saturated? I see pawn shops in Norfolk going broke. I'm saying the markets are saturated and the toilets are going to back up in Singapore. Don't laugh too hard. This war monger prez is going to be forced to draft some talent to figure out how to use the smart weapons because the army can't compete with the private sector for wages for smart people and only smart people can use the smart weapons. No one is going to entrust ex-prisoners with million dollar equiptment. So the theory of " Lets empty out the prisons as they are already trained killers." I don't think it will work.
Gold is the the Chernoble metal, it can cause financial meltdown and Greenspan knows it. Germany is going to be calling the shots because they can manipulate the Swiss who say Yea or Nay to physical gold sales. Germany is the Yang force with the Swiss as the Yin. Banks need industry and industry needs banks. They have to listen to each other. They are the only supply of physical gold able to support the dollar so it will be up to them to see how low the banksters in the US will have to bow to stay in a realm of sanity on the island of Dr. Moro. Sure it's all coming to a one world coalition government. I don't like German economics because they dispise individual freedoms. Become a Catholic or we'll give your head in a basket a long time to think it over. New Werld Odor. @%&*@! that. Just expressing my frustrations over what I overheard a rich guy into unity saying. Global economy means global comparative wages. Do you want to work for 2.25 an hour?, no benefits with hourly job security? 1890's II.
I try to understand things and how they relate to gold. When the price of gold explodes and it eventually will.It's going to be right up there with the transitional elements being so radioative in the markets. I little sliver is going to buy a whole lot of bread. Just pound out the coin and take out the scissors.....with your little pocket scale........purest legal tender the world has ever known, GENESIS 3:11 "the gold of that land is good".
Black Blade
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

Petroleum prices are rebounding on the Venezuela news. Oil is higher by 64 cents so far and rising, and natural gas is higher by 5 cents. Meanwhile Gold is comatose.

- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
IGWA
If I recall, there was some royalty in Europe who would resort to anything to keep their governments in place, but they ended up losing their heads.
Black Blade
Oil Set to Rise as Chavez Back in Office
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020414/markets_oil_venezuela_1.html
Snippit:

DUBAI (Reuters) - World oil prices are set to rebound on Monday after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reclaimed power, easing market fears the OPEC producer would change tack and abandon its cartel output limits. OPEC champion Chavez returned to Caracas in jubilation on Sunday after two days of imprisonment following a military coup. But oil dealers continued to monitor the world's fourth biggest oil exporter as it attempted to restore internal stability.

Black Blade: Then again the workers just might strike again.

Horatio
Barrick
Earnings If Barrick sells half its production (hedged portion)at 365.00 and the other half @ spot 300.00+,the earnings for 2002 should be a steller performance especially with a cash cost near 160.00.I don't know another gold stock that can earn that much. Merril Lynch and Zacks recommending Barrick
gives it institutional exposure and above average liquidity for mega investors.Institutional investors must have liquidity(large Cap)to effectivly move in and out .Only U.S,. stocks like Newmont and Barrick can give that liquidity .Newmont has less hedges but with lots of debt that can be a drag on earnings,Barrick has more hedges that are going to ADD to earnings this year and a lot less debt coupled with LOTS of cash .Ill bet Barrick beats Newmont this year in performance.IMHO
BILLYG
POG
$$$$$$$292.70$$$$$$$ Just a terible feeling. Feels heavy in here. I am a long term bull, but I think we will be working lower for a few months.
Henri
Cobra(too) 2
It's probably a worse picture than you painted...The US paper is not only debt based but it is bad debt at that
Horatio
Fed Warnings
Did anyone here hear what I did ?The Federal Reserve ordered J.P.Morgan Chase to cut thier Dirivatave exposure in half ! It it was true that they were shorting gold, the implications of this are very bullish for gold.
Black Blade
Barrick???
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=NEM+HGMCY+MDG+GG+GOLD&k=c1&t=1y&s=abx&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l
Ha Ha Ha Stop it please! Your killing me, Ha Ha Ha. A picture is worth a thousand words (see link)

- Black Blade
Henri
Contest
$$$$$$$320.0$$$$$$$$$

Because the grip of the cabal is loosening.
Gandalf the White
GC2M Settlement Contest PROGRESS REPORT !!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436

---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
=====
OK ALL -- The EARLY "Guesses" have outlined the range !! Be sure to enter your prognostication before someone takes your lucky guess. What is it that is said about holding your breath until one turns "BLUE"? Turn "GOLDEN" soon.
<;-)

SilverSurfer
Contest
$$$321.62$$$$
I believe[hoping]nothing too dreadful will happen in the weeks ahead, but with the added interest, and continued
reductions in mining Co. hedges, the POG will continue
to make a steady, yet slightly faster ascent.
Black Blade
FSA FINDINGS 'UNTRUSTWORTHY'
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20020413a1.htm
Analysts give little credit to financial regulators

Snippit:

The nation's 13 largest banks are saying they expect to slide further into the red for the 2001 business year, booking 7.8 trillion yen in credit costs for risky loans -- up 21 percent from November projections.

Their gloomy projections come as the Financial Services Agency prepared Friday evening to announce the results of its special audit launched in autumn. The audit was supposed to speed up banks' bad-loan disposal and restore credibility to the FSA's supervision of the banking system by targeting loans made to major banks' most heavily indebted borrowers.

But economists, citing the problems raised by Japan's debt-ridden condition, believe there is no immediate end in sight to banks' growing bad-loan problems. Nor has the FSA succeeded in regaining its credibility as a watchdog, they said.


Black Blade: As reported last week, the FSA data doesn't add up. Most private analysts believe the bad loan picture is much worse. It is quite possible that some Japanese banks will go tits up later this year.
IGWA
Gold Guessing Game
73441$$$$$274.30$$$$$

The manipulators will teach the longs (another) short, sharp lesson

IGWA
Brett Woods
Contest

****309.6****
Things are heating and it's going to be difficult to vent the steam this month.
Spartacus
Euro
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_566526.html?menu=business.currencynews
OVIEDO, Spain (AFX) - A decision by the UK and Norway to join the euro could mean a greater role for the single currency in oil and gas payments, a senior Opec official said.

Javad Yarjani, general director of markets, said in a speech originally intended to be delivered by secretary-general Ali Rodriguez said UK and Norwegian euro entry could "create the momentum" for the denomination of oil and gax prices in euros.

Norway is not a member of the EU, let alone the euro zone.

The official added that "others would stay with the dollar".s

EU european and monetary affairs commissioner Pedro Solbes said: "The denomination of oil and gas prices in euros is an objective, but it's not the fundamental issue."


Black Blade
Petroleum Higher - PMs Comatose
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The price of oil is steadily rising +88 cents and NG up +6 cents. Meanwhile Gold is lower by 70 cents and Silver is flat. Should get interesting when NY opens.

- Black Blade
Spartacus
Euro
http://www.reuters.com/markets_news_article.jhtml?storyID=811557&marketID=1&ric=
OVIEDO, Spain, April 14 (Reuters) - The euro has acquired international standing since its launch but has yet to threaten the dollar or overcome British hesitancy about joining the single currency, central bankers said on Saturday.

Within three and a half years of its birth, the euro is the second most important currency in central banks' warchests and demand for it will grow further, they said at a seminar which coincided with a European Union finance ministers' meeting here.

Still, it will be some time yet before the euro matches the dollar's stature on the international stage.

"Economic history has taught us that a currency's progress towards global status is a very gradual one," European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William McDonough was less specific about the timeframe but made it clear the dollar was still in pole position.

He said he would like to "have the euro join the dollar as an immensely important and strong reserve currency."

This can't happen soon enough for European Union finance ministers, according to Rodrigo Rato, the Spanish Economy Minister who is their current chairman.

"I would like to stress the importance of European economic fundamentals which are clearly the most solid right now of any OECD economy and the wish of European governments is to have a stable, solid, strong currency which corresponds to our fundamentals," he said.


ECB WON'T HYPE THE EURO

Duisenberg was adamant the ECB would not actively tout the euro as an international reserve currency. Instead, the bank could best help the euro's standing by focusing firmly on healthy economic policies.

The signs were already encouraging, according to the ECB chief, who said China planned to increase the euro's share in their official reserves -- a prospect backed up by a Chinese central banker.

"The integration of the market in the euro zone and the strengthening of policy coordination are likely to enhance the role of the euro as an international reserve currency," said Xiao Gang, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China.

"The composition of Chinese foreign exchange reserves will reflect this...change."

-----------------

However, Britain has yet to be convinced that the potential advantages of euro entry outweigh drawbacks, Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George said.

Spartacus: The game is on! Who will England choose?

The CoinGuy
New York Attorney General Spitzer's affadavit
http://www.oag.state.ny.us/press/2002/apr/MerrillL.pdf
after the fact of course, but what else do you expect. Looks as though someones gotten off their duff. Let see how long he can run with the ball....

For those interested in what is going on in the Brokerage community, this is an enlightening read. I'm looking forward to reading the next in the series.

If I recall an article I read and posted earlier this week, 7 more brokerage houses were served or waiting to be served with subpeonas(Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs et al).

Looks like the retail investor was the dupe in the first act.

What a mess,

The CoinGuy
MOJO-JOJO
contest
$$$$301.4$$$$
Seems like a good bet.
Just waking up
POG guessing contest

$$$$$$$$$$$$302.50$$$$$$$$$$$$$

It's impossible to predict the daily fluctuations in the POG, but extrapolating the year-long uptrend would put it about here.

Nothing like a POG guessing contest to pull the lurkers out of the woodwork! Thank you MK and Gandalf.
Spartacus
UK
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_567028.html?menu=business.currencynewsForex - Sterling in focus in early London after weekend Treasury reports

Major currencies remained stuck in a tight range in early trade though some interest was provided by weekend reports suggesting that the UK Treasury has concluded that sterling would have to devalue by up to 30% against the euro to ensure EMU membership would be a success, dealers said.

Sterling remained resilient in the light of these comments as expectations of a speedy referendum on UK membership subsides even further.

"It looks like an attempt by the Treasury to impose another hurdle to UK entry," said Neil Mackinnon, senior currency strategist at Merrill Lynch.
-----
WestLB currency strategist Michael Klawitter agrees that the reports may push back a referendum even further.

"Nevertheless, the risk in euro/sterling has turned to the upside (who wants to be long sterling if it is 30% overvalued) although activity ahead of Wednesday's Budget, activity should remain light," he said.

For BNP Paribas' global head of forex strategy Hans Redeker Wednesday's Budget is the main focus of the week. With taxes set to rise to pay for improvements in public services, Redeker thinks the Budget "will make clear that the UK has started to convert to a 'European' country."
Black Blade
Final straw for gold hedge
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1061182-6094-0,00.html

Snippit:

NO MATTER how it is dressed up, the news that AngloGold is cutting back its hedge book ought to be the final straw that breaks the back of the argument in favour of hedging.


Black Blade: The day of the hedger is over. As the POG rises the hedgers go under water. That defeats the purpose of holding shares in companies that short sell their product. Ever since Anglo lost the bidding war for Normandy they had to either acquire another producer to feed the hedge book or unwind their hedges before they got out of hand with a rising POG. Checkmate!
Black Blade
The Trouble with Gold
http://www.commodities-now.com/cnonline/march2002/article3/a3-p1.shtml
Snippit:

"So, why did gold perform so dismally in the aftermath of the WTC attacks ?" lamented the Chief Executive of a major gold producing company. In this article Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com attempts to answer this important question and links it to the world of the online media, suggesting ways in which the Internet will play a pivotal role in turning around gold's fortunes.

A reading of the recently published gold price forecasts commissioned by Reuters suggests that the declining band of industry analysts are cautiously optimistic about gold's prospects � which may rise from an average of $271.04 in 2001 to a forecasted $289.73 this year. One senses from within the various commentaries provided an even greater groundswell of optimism than their price forecasts suggest, citing the opening of the Chinese market, the contraction of the producer base, rising economic prospects, rising investment demand, unwinding of producer hedges, a low interest rate environment depressing producer forward sales, more effective marketing, a weaker US dollar, declining mine exploration expenditure, flight to quality in Japan � the list is endless. We at TheBullionDesk stand towards the top end of the spectrum in terms of expectations and, at the risk of being thought a zealot, believe gold is ripe for a sustainable rally.


Black Blade: Interesting article. The main point about the lack of marketing Gold is a good one.

Topaz
The Guessing contest
$$$$$ 298.1 $$$$$
Talk of a lull in the Mid East conflict should give the "Managers" an opportunity to pour water on POG yet again.
18K
Contest
$$$$$303.2$$$$$
Another lurker out of the woodwork...
Black Blade
'Profitless recovery' fears to limit stock gains
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020412/markets_stocks_profits_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is on the mend and economists are rushing to raise their year-end growth forecasts. Why, then, are stocks mired? The answer lies in a new catch phrase sweeping Wall Street that sums up investor fears: A profitless recovery.

This oxymoronic phrase illustrates a jump in economic growth but a slow-by-comparison recovery in corporate earnings. The paradox has emerged as businesses hold back from spending on new equipment and as reports of business accounting irregularities have made Corporate America cautious about financial forecasts.


Black Blade: A profitless what? Sounds like a Recession to me.
Canuck
@ Horatio, Sector, All
You mention the FED has instructed JPM to reduce derivative holdings by 50%. Sector posted the same news last week. Do you (or anyone) have a source for this spectacular news?

Thanks,

Canuck.
darkhorse
@IGWA
You may have been lurking here for a while, but it seems (according to your guess in our little contest) the message hasn't gotten thru yet. Seems as tho, these days, TPTB work their a**es off and STILL can't keep it under $300 for more than 2-3 days before it comes right back up. Time to sit down and do some more homework.
Frosty
CONTEST
Greeting,

$$$$308.20$$$$ I learn so much from this forum every day and I am very greatful to all of the fine minds that post here. The central bankers will keep a lid on gold at any cost. They must or they are out of a job. My father taught me as a young man the "Golden Rule". He with the gold rules! Cheers, Frosty
Cavan Man
De Ja Vu (all over again)
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 15, 2002; Page A01


The Bush administration is poised to complete the biggest increase in government spending since the 1960s' "Great Society," the result of conducting the war on terrorism while substantially boosting the education and transportation budgets, according to a detailed analysis of government spending patterns.

Spending on government programs will increase by 22 percent from 1999 to 2003 in inflation-adjusted dollars, according to the analysis by The Washington Post and vetted by budget experts in both parties.

The president's 2003 budget proposals, combined with spending approved in the first year of his administration and the last two years of the Clinton administration, dwarf the spending increase from any four-year period since President Lyndon Johnson fought the Vietnam War while launching a war on poverty. Other periods of substantial increases in domestic spending, including the Nixon and Carter administrations, were accompanied by cuts in military spending. President Ronald Reagan boosted money for the mili- tary while trimming the domestic budget.

In the short term, the latest spending hike is one factor helping to pull the nation out of recession. But over the long run, some experts say, most of the spending will be a drag on the economy, heighten the risk of sustained budget deficits and limit the maneuvering room of policymakers when, 10 years from now, the government must help fund the baby boomers' health care and retirement needs.

"We should be very concerned," said John Cogan, a budget expert at the Hoover Institution who advised the Bush campaign. "Clearly, the defense and national security increases are warranted. The failure to offset those increases with reductions should be a source of concern. The wrong thing to do is not confront those choices."

President Bush has regularly warned against the perils of federal spending, declaring last year that "excessive federal spending threatens economic vitality." Although administration officials vow to control spending once the current emergency has passed, many experts believe that will be difficult, if not impossible. Last year's tax cut and the recent recession may result in the first back-to-back years of falling revenue since the late 1950s.

Now, the military is slated to get the biggest increase in two decades, matching the previous Bush administration's budget when adjusted for inflation. Homeland security needs dominate the nonmilitary budget in 2003, but nonmilitary spending had already risen dramatically in recent years as the nation briefly enjoyed budget surpluses.

Measured another way, federal spending, minus interest costs on the debt, will have grown by nearly 2 percentage points of the overall U.S. economy from 1999 to 2003 -- from 16.6 percent to 18.5 percent.

The total for the 2003 budget likely will go higher as pressure builds in Congress to add to the administration's budget requests in this election year and to enact new benefits such as a prescription drug plan for Medicare recipients. The calculations also do not include the effect of the administration's recent $27 billion supplemental spending request for fiscal 2002.

Bush administration officials say that they tried to clamp down on spending -- and intend to take a hard line in the future -- but that now they are focusing on ensuring the safety of Americans. Spending on annually funded programs, in inflation-adjusted dollars, rose about 9 percent in the last two years of the Clinton administration and is scheduled to grow nearly 15 percent in the first two years of the Bush administration.

"This is an important phenomenon that needs to be closely watched," Office of Management and Budget Director Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. said after reviewing The Post research. "We cannot make the 'guns and butter' mistake" of the 1960s, he said, referring to simultaneous spending hikes for military and domestic items.

Daniels said he believed much of the homeland security spending would be one-time expenses, such as building a vaccine stockpile, and thus would not be built into future spending. He said the administration has tried to slow the growth in other spending. For example, after approving last year a substantial increase in education spending -- which has risen nearly 50 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars since 1999 -- the administration has proposed essentially to freeze education spending until 2007.

The White House says that if homeland security and Sept. 11 emergency spending is excluded, nondefense spending rose by 3.3 percent in 2002 and is slated to decline by 0.4 percent in 2003. In a meeting with congressional leaders last week, Bush vowed to veto spending bills that exceeded his spending targets, a White House official said.

"If we are not prepared to roll back spending" once the current crisis is over, Daniels said, "we will make a fundamental mistake."

That may be difficult. Robert Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, noted that only once during the 1990s, when the government struggled to get the deficit under control, did the spending on annually funded domestic programs decline after inflation is taken into account.

"Congress didn't really show a great ability to hold down nondefense discretionary spending," Reischauer said.

Kevin Hassett, a budget expert at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said the emergence of budget surpluses led directly to the spending growth. "It is really obvious that when there is money around, they will spend it, even if they are Republicans," he said.

Hassett noted that the administration last year pushed for a tax cut by arguing it would restrain spending. "They said it would starve the beast," he said. "But we have a hungry beast who is somehow finding food anyway. . . . You've got to wonder how fiscally conservative the Bush guys are. Granted, you could say there are a lot of priorities. But shucks, couldn't we find other things to cut?"

Peter Orszag, a former Clinton economic aide and now fellow at the liberal Brookings Institution, said much of the spending growth could be attributed to pent-up demands after a period of frugality.

"These are significant increases, but from very low levels," Orszag said. "Discretionary spending as a share of the gross domestic product had fallen to low levels. There were needs and demands that had been built up and needed to be addressed."

Orszag said the revenue loss from the Bush tax cut in future years will begin to dwarf the spending increases in the recent past.

Thomas Kahn, Democratic staff director of the House Budget Committee, noted that the calculations do not include the huge defense buildup that the administration plans beyond 2003.

"The story is even more troubling than these numbers suggest," he said. "Republican rhetoric suggests they are fiscally tight. But they are big spenders as long as it is on programs they want to spend money on."

Reischauer said that despite the recent emergence of deficits, the overall fiscal picture is still bright, in part because the deficit this year will be relatively small. "We are not in deep doo-doo by the standards of the 1980s and 1990s at all," he said.

But he added, "the pressures for additional spending are going to be very strong. Institutionally, the restraints are crumbling. The political environment is not auspicious" given the narrowly divided Congress.

"The administration doesn't want to lose the House, and it is mindful of the fallout of any discipline they impose on their election chances," Reischauer said. "They can talk the talk. Can they walk the walk?"


� 2002 The Washington Post Company


YGM
Remember this Bankers Pawn.....
http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/index.htmlStill silent our once reviled Martin Armstrong....I'm sure when his story is told it'll read like a conspirators best seller.....Over 2 yrs in jail so far....
Belgian
No subject
ABX's threath / warning / of selling-hedging at 365$ is the 1001-th effort to contain buying pressure and declining availability of Physical Gold ! IGWA (hoi) is convinced that the financial brotherhood can hold the world in its hand !? Venezuela's Chavez will have made some concessions on oil-export and OPEC infidelity...or face another coup attempt with a less happy end. In the mean time Columbia's two factions (Oil and Drugs) are gearing up for some more confrontation. Another oil price front. Whilst Iraq/Syria provides the necessary for a second front (Linanon) against Israel, Iran iterates its 1 month oil embargo, again !
Oil analysts (speculators) aren't worried. Perhaps they are confident that one nuclear bomb on Iraq, will calm down the oil-offensive at once and for good ?

China is touring around and paying some friendly visits to...yes, oil states (Nigeria-Iran). Is there something going on with oil...? And Spartacus posting on Norway and UK (oilproducers) wanting to join and...oil for euro...but not urgent ! Why not two different prices for oil : in euro or dollars, Sir ? Isn't this a nice way to let these two currencies compete on their real intrinsic value ? Yes, and guess wich one has 1% / 15% of Gold-reserves as concubine ?

Is this temporary double priced oil a solution for getting rid of obsolete dollar-reserves, holded by Euroland and China (+), where the latter will grow to become the largest oil consumer ever ? But our friend IGWA remains convinced that a US financial brotherhood can keep 6 billion people minus 500 million US$-blockers at bay ? Soon he (IGWA) will call our host for...a few soft yellow coins (smile Sir).

5 US$ of (bad) debt for 1 US$ of GDP (nominal) and increasing ! He who thinks that such a situation can be overcome without HYPERINFLATION, needs some assistance.
Sub 10$ POO or near zero interest rates or fiscal paradise or a 1 US$>2 euro, etc...will not revive an oversaturated economy ! Reread Henry C K Liu (Liu Investment Group-NY)
Rock
A gold poem from Rock
It was a sunday back in 98 when i first learned of gold,
my pastor mentioned a guest would speak,
a wealthy man i'm told.

He spoke of a time when markets would crash
and stocks would tumble down,
and gold would soar to hights not heard
and silver would rebound.

I knew inside this man was right
in all the things he said,
about how those who were not prepare
who's stocks were good as dead.

he said that gold would one day be
at 40,000 an ounce,
and silver would follow that blazing trail
while taking a huge bounce.

I took heed of this mans words
and invested all i had,
because i knew that one day soon
that a many would be sad.

I try like him to inform to others
to see the light and act,
but many of my friends and family
are still not believing that.

The man I heard was Peter Daniels
the man who spoke that night,
and it was he who woke me up
to finally see the light

To all of you who read these words
please harken to my plead,
the time is right to buy gold now
just open your eyes and see.

And when you do you'll know for sure
that everything you learned,
was not just smoke going up
you surly wont be burned.

I know of some who lost so much
of their 401 and pension,
but i'll hold tight to what i have
and not reget to mention,

That gold by far is your greatest assest
for future times to come,
so get it now while its cost is low
and you wont be feeling dumb.

Those who can see things before their
time are the ones who are sucessful.
Good day to all my fellow goldmisters.

Rock
sector
British Trial Balloon?
2-4-6-8 When are we gonna DEVALUATE! GOLD as your shieldSterling shrugs off devaluation talk
By Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: April 15 2002 10:10 | Last Updated: April 15 2002 15:04

Sterling was steady against the dollar and the euro on Monday despite reports over the weekend that the Treasury favoured a 30 per cent devaluation of the pound should the UK enter the eurozone.

A forced depreciation of that magnitude is generally deemed too risky, and could rule out EMU entry for the forseeable future.

The Treasury is currently conducting its five economic tests to determine whether entry into the euro would benefit the UK. It is expected to report on its findings in the next year.

The market broadly believes the government would want to see a devaluation of between 10 and 15 per cent ahead of an entry, taking the exchange rate to about �0.70 against the euro. A 30 per cent devaluation from current levels would force the pound to about �0.80.

The reports also coincided with a cautious view of the benefits of monetary union by Sir Edward George, governor of the Bank of England.

Speaking on the international use of the euro at a conference in Spain, Sir Edward said the one-size-fits-all monetary policy of the eurozone would not suit all countries all the time.

Sterling was was at �0.6122 agains the euro, compared with a New York close of �0.6112. Against the dollar, it was at $1.4359 by 1400 GMT, virtually unchanged from Friday's close .

The euro was steady against the dollar at $0.8798, unchanged from last week's US close. Analysts said leading currencies were likely to remain range-bound this week as attention remained focused on events in the Middle East.
USAGOLD
A Contest Entry by E-Mail from "Farfel" ********Argentinean Tears********
Although very involved in the world of arts once again, I still check in
now and then to see what is happening in the world of finance.

The bad news is that very little has changed in terms of American
policies, both domestic and foreign.

Although it appears that the gold carry trade may be in a slow motion,
stealth, unwinding, there seems to be no indication of any notable
changes in the various currency carry trades. The major Wall Street
institutions continue to target commodity dependendent countries -- most
notably Canada and Australia -- for carry trade operations.

In Canada's case, it has become blatantly obvious that Wall Street is
set upon creating a huge currency crisis with the utlimate intention of
seeing Canadians demand currency unification with America at the very
least, possibly an actual national merger at worst. Americans see in
Canada a country possessing the most valuable commodity of the 21st
century, specifically an abundance of clean potable water. Wall Street
is busily instigating the conditions that will exploit Canada's economic
vulnerabilities to the fullest and result in American control of
Canadian water.

With respect to Argentina, Wall Street continues to facilitate economic
disequilibriums that lead to capital flight, most notably those that
inspire the wealthy class to transfer funds into American Dollars,
American stocks, and American bonds. In doing so, the US Establishment
hopes to use such ad hoc foreign inflows to buttress the entire spectrum
of US financial instruments.

As such, the tears of Argentinians are of no greater importance to
Americans today than were the tears of the Mexicans, Southeast Asians,
Russians, and Brazillians during the previous decade. US dollar
imperialism is of paramount importance and whatever is necessary to
maintain capital inflows to support current bubbles in US stocks, bonds,
and real estate overides all moral considerations.

The change of regime (from Clintonites to Bushbabies) has not resulted
in a single noteworthy change in carry trades policies. Can there be
no better proof that, under the current US two party political system,
where economic policies are concerned, the Federal Reserve (and its
member bullion banks) control the political process so that it matters
little who happen to be the figureheads representing them?
America is in desperate need of a strong viable third politcial party,
independent of the Federal Reserve, which will endeavor to clean up the
current global economic mess, one that under US dominance is now replete
with moral hazard, cronyism, and market rigging.

Although the tears of the Argentinians are not to be disregarded, I
think we may get our most significant lessons today from the tears of
the Japanese. The Japanese have suffered an amazingly lengthy
recession/depression and one can only wonder why they have suffered so
long in stolid silence without attempting to shake up the global
economic status quo? I would imagine that the absence of a strong
military coupled with the chronic Chinese threat have left the Japanese
feeling that they cannot upset the apple cart of US Dollar hegemony.
To that end, the Japanese have felt that so long as they don't upset
America, then America will continue to provide a military shield against
hostile aggression.

However, now we are seeing the first major currency that appears to be
doing its very best to break the shackles of the carry trade in which it
finds itself attacked. Although the Yen carry trade has been a very
successful investment strategy for Wall Street this past decade, it now
appears that particular carry trade is in a process of undwinding.
With net sales of US treasuries plus a sudden astonishing escalation of
gold purchases, the Japanese seem to be stating in no uncertain terms,
"Enough is enough." A country can only stomach a sustained economic
depression (whilst simultaneously witnessing the strong prosperity of
its major trade partner, America) for so long before it lashes back,
indifferent to the consequences. It is my hunch that Japan's final
break with US dollar hegemony will occur suddenly, dramatically, and in
a very unexpected left field manner. The break will be predicated
upon a "nothing left to lose" attitude amongst the Japanese. Whatever
its form, there seems to be little doubt that the Yen carry trade has
proven to be a failure in the long run insofar as today the Japanese,
despite the worst economic conditions at home and the continuing Wall
Street suppression of the Yen, refuse to transfer significantly greater
funds into US dollar instruments. Instead, the Japanese are looking
elsewhere - -and precious metal investment is becoming one notable
avenue of protest against US dollar hegemony conducted in concert with
various currency raids.

So in conclusion, to summarize briefly, I will emphasize that
Argentinian tears teach us that, despite a change of administration in
America, the global economic status quo prevails under US dollar
hegemony. On the other hand, it is Japanese tears that may yet
present Americans with their greatest lessons as Japanese futility and
desperation lead them to challenge boldly US dollar imperialism.

During the potential impending wave of currency upheavals, precious
metals will likely prove to be the most dependable refuge from the
storm.

Farfel

Brett Woods
Oops! A USAgolden Rule
$$$$309.6$$$$
Things are heating and it's going to be difficult to vent the steam this month.

sector
Japan Banks... Flatliners
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3CTLEXXZC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=ZZZR4COD20C⊂heading=asia%20pacific%20equitiesJapanese banks in 'intensive care', says FSA
By By David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: April 12 2002 11:55 | Last Updated: April 12 2002 21:07

Japan's Financial Services Agency said the nation's banks were in "intensive care", although none of the top 13 financial institutions had fallen below required capital adequacy ratios.

The agency, which has been conducting special inspections of banks and their problem borrowers since October, said on Friday that losses from the disposal of non-performing loans in 2001 would be �7,800bn, �1,400bn ($10.6bn) more than projected in November.

The FSA carried out inspections of 149 large borrowers, of which 34 un-named companies - with total credits of �3,700bn - were reclassified as being "in danger of bankruptcy or below." Yoshio Okubo, deputy commissioner at the FSA, said banks would have to write off half these losses within a year and 80 per cent within two years. Banks would almost certainly have to cut all further credits to the companies, nearly all of them in the construction, real estate, retail and non-bank sectors, he said.
Pizz
Contest
$$$$313.90$$$$$
CoBra(too)
@ USAGOLD - Thank's for Farfel's Essay !
Not only on the dot, but spot on timing as well. Great thoughts Farfel - even if I feel being on a similar strain of thought, I'd never be able to put it together in your inimitable style. Thank you - and please come back more often.

Would like to recommend it to HOF as it's a keeper. Any seconders out there -
cb2
Operative
US Govt Buys me a Gold Mine
Thank You Uncle Sam. Thanks a Lot!!
I enjoy simple woodworking projects. Birdhouses, bird feeders, shadow boxes, wooden projects of all kinds. Last year I had built so many of the darn things ( twas good for the heart and soul on rainy days) that I decided to take some of the items to a local fall festival. Actually sold some of them and put a few bucks in my pockets. However, in order to sell them at the county fair, I was required to get a business license. No biggie, cost me 85 bucks. I brought this to the attention of the tax preparer. Yes, I needed to declare the $$$ I made at the county fair. (couple hundred) The good news is that I took a sizeable tax write off of wood working equipment, cost of doing business such as business license, part of my shop "rent", and INVENTORY. Hmmmm. I think this year I am going to make wooden coasters in sets of four. Perhaps of walnut, or maple. In the center of each wooden coaster will be an one ounce gold eagle. Pretty dont you think? Very upscale, very unusual...doubt anyone else has had this idea. So lets see, the govt will allow me a tax deduction for more tools, and more INVENTORY. This idea might just be a real seller so I think I should build up a very sizable inventory of maple, walnut, and lots of gold eagles. Thank you Uncle Sam, for helping me invest in my inventory. Thank you for buying my gold mine of gold eagles. Appreciate it. And I know one is not suppose to advertise at this web site, but just in case anyone is interested in a most unique, up the jones's thing, set of drink coasters, I think I will begin to take orders for say....oh....10,000 us fiat dollars. (Remember, you get four in each set) Perhaps they are a bit pricy, but as an "artist", I am allowed my whims. Tell you what, I will even number each set and wood burn my john doe into the underside. There, a real collectors item!! I need to run now and begin to build a huge inventory of these soon to be much sought after coasters. And if I am wrong, (it could happen) and the world does not beat a path to my shop door, then I guess next year I will get another tax write off when I cant sell them and have to write off my inventory of another great idea that just did not sell. I trust that some of you are following this thinking on today, April 15. Makes you want to get into woodworking and making similar tax paid for products. INVENTORY. Yep, thats the ticket.
Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !! POG Settlement Contest
WOWSERS Sir MK, It's working ! Lurkers coming out of the ... The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
THE RULES (Revisited)--
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
====
$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456



$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392

$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436



$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
=====
<;-)
The CoinGuy
Gandalf
Hello Gandalf,

perhaps my #73417 was overlooked? Thanks for doing all the yeoman work on these contests. Doing a better job than I could...

Best of wishes,

The CoinGuy
Pizz
Contest - with "why"
$$$$313.9$$$$

I'm expecting more negative news on the banking sector this week with JPM earnings on Wednesday. Looks like they will be at lower end of target - but down the raod does not look too rosy. Lower financial assets should equal higher POG.



Pizz
Gandalf the White
Don't forget THAT other CONTEST !!! <;-)
In case YOU missed it !
NOT everyone did, as there have been a few excellent entries, AND WOW, even Farful could not resist giving us his thoughts !! I know that many are still composing and there is plenty of time remaining, BUT, do not miss the chance !!
<;-)
====================

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MDT) on Friday, April 19th. We stand at the time of numerous world calamities, a time of feeling peoples pain, a time of needing to stop and think what the future might bring to you and your family. We have all seen pictures and read stories of the financial pain of the people of Argentina, so Sir MK asks:

"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines ?"

We ask contestants to treat the present potential economic, and political status, together with the recent Argentine financial scenario, as a basis for their entry thinking. Your Contest post must be at least 50 words and it must contain in the subject box the following:

******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

(Note the surrounding STARS !)

The "GRAND PRIZE" will be an Argentina 5 Peso "Argentino" gold coin, over 100 years old and containing 0.2334 troy ounces of gold. There will also be two "runners-up" who will receive Prizes of a one ounce silver Canadian Maple Leaf coin.

(Did you see that you Silverhearts ?) <;-)

We wish you good luck, good fortune. . . . . .And. . . . .
Let the contest begin!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Gandalf the White
OOPS, Sorry there, "The Coin(physical)Guy"
I got so interested in this story and WENT to the LINK, that I failed to go back and see your PRIOR POG Guess post ! Thanks for the reminder.
<;-)
====

The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:11:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 73418)
This is interesting...Disney being called another Enron?
http://www.drudgereport.com/mattnf.htm
DEEP, DEEP POOH-POOH: FINKE LAWSUIT CLAIMS DISNEY IN ENRON-LIKE COVER UP

Pierce O'Donnell of O'Donnell & Shaffer represents Nikki Finke in the action, which alleges DISNEY is trying to cover up financial perils from shareholders by trying to silence reporters like Finke.

"This really is ENRON all over again!" notes one legal source.
(rest of the story at the link above)
===





Foreigner
Oliphant hypocryte
http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/2002/04/item20020415112951_1.htmThere is some very interesting article I'd like to bring to your attention



Gold industry's future bright: CEO

The chief executive of one of the world's biggest gold producers is predicting a bright future for the gold sector through more responsible industry practices.

The president and chief executive of Barrick Gold Corporation, Randall Oliphant, has told the Australian Gold Conference in Melbourne he is encouraged by the price of gold rising to record four-year highs.

Mr Oliphant says the gold sector has been driven by a broad mix of factors including uncertainty in the capital markets.

"Personally, I'm very encouraged about the price of gold and think that the future will be better than what we've had [in] the past few years," he said.

"I think the market is agreeing with us, I think that our industry is getting better positioned and hopefully this will be a new golden age."



Any comments please!

I will post some views later today.....
Mr Gresham
Operative
It's great to see someone like you with the thinking cap on. The expenses that would help you declare a "loss" in your business are the license, the shop rent (but not a space in your home -- this just helps you zero out any profit), your mileage driving on business, and just about any other out of pocket.

Except inventory. Inventory is what you haven't sold yet, and at year-end, you're supposed to back the fair market value of your inventory OUT of the expense totals, those expenses including what you paid for the items that went in to your inventory. Now, your inventory calculations, or eyeballing, might be subject to some creative variations, but with an eagle in the middle of each one, that is something that would have a certain rock-bottom market value for sure.

What PM holders SHOULD do is to be sure to close out this year any investments that have lost significant value over the years, for a capital loss in the year of sale. $3000 of this will subtract from this year's taxable income, saving you 10 or 15 or 27.5 or whatever percent marginal tax bracket you are in. (Or sell enough each year to "harvest" the $3000 allowable loss. Any remainder over $3k goes into future years.)

Do not buy the identical (or substantially-identical) item back within 30 days or the loss is not counted. Selling to a close relative would most likely void the loss on sale, too. After the 30 (+ a counting safety day or two) you buy and hold for the long-term or whatever you determine.

This is one way to have your "partner", Uncle, help pay for your investments, though you have certainly fronted the "partnership" enough money already yourself ;)

Old Yeller
Foreigner

Pale,well dressed Oliphant speak with forked tongue.
Rockgrabber
Contest
$$$$294.00$$$$

I expect more bad news that would be good for gold. However I look for this paper market to show it is made for fools. Thank You.
SteveH
Cobra (2)
Seconded.
Truthcaster
Did someone say contest!!?
Hi all-
Well I see we have a contest going on.
That's good I like contest's
So lets see Gold is down some today but I bet it holds
on to the 300 mark so I'll say $$$$$300.60$$$$$
for this contest.... Thanks... Truthcaster.....
SMU
Kitco's Weakest Link Contest Flash Movie
http://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6Bart the Impaler meets the Cheshire Cat.
If you have Flash and need a chuckle....turn up the volume.
Old Yeller
Buffett comments on the stock option gravy train
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16890-2002Apr8.html
The kings pay off the loyal public servants,it shall be done.

Money for nothing;one,after all'should be compensated richly for creative accounting and financial engineering.

Don't look to the SEC for any justice,it's peak of integrity occured while under the jurisdiction of Joe Kennedy,rum-runner.

Old Yeller
GE says loss of $890 million on derivatives doesn't matter
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=230501
Of course not,it's only money and Greenspan doesn't know what money is anymore,anyway.

We await the day of Oliphant's ludicrous excuse for derivative losses.
jayzee
Energy from coal-water fuel
Most all of us are concerned by a possible cut-off of oil from the ME. There is a process that has been developed by Silverado Green Fuels, Inc., a division of Silverado Gold. (SLGLF) Their Low-Rank Coal-Water Fuel is clean burning, and environmentaly friendly. With this process, the coal does not settle to a sludge, and can be transported by pipe to electric generaters that can burn the coal-water mixture instead of oil!!

This would reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and reduce

the dollar outflo to other countries.

Silverado has applied for a grant from the Energy Dept. to fund a large scale demonstration of this process. They may get this grant after the energy bill is passed. I am in favor of ANWAR drilling, but I have called my congresspeople to suggest that the Republicans drop ANWAR for now, and the Democrats do what is in the best interest of the USA and vote for a compromise energy bill. There are other processes in development for burning coal with less polution, and I am for funding all of them and let the best process(s) win!! Please consider calling, writing, or e-mailing your congresspeople and let them know how you feel about the Energy Bill.

(Disclosure - I own a modest amount of SLGLF stock.)
Arcticfox
Japan Credit Downgraded...
(Reuters)
S&P Cuts Japan Credit Rating One Notch
April 15, 2002 12:01:00 PM ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Monday lowered Japan's long-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings to AA-minus from AA, saying the world's second largest economy has not done enough to promote structural reform.

The downgrade dealt a severe blow to the country that is struggling to emerge from the doldrums of a decade-long economic slump and to the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is losing popular support following a series of scandals that have rocked the government.

``We had hoped that Junichiro Koizumi administration would press for private-sector and governmental reform but, given the government's falling popularity and the problems that have beset key ministers and aides, Standard & Poor's has lowered its expectations in three key areas,'' said Takahira Ogawa, head of the Asian sovereign ratings team.

The AA-minus rating puts Japan on par with countries such as Malta, the Czech Republic and Cyprus and comes after the agency downgraded Japan in November 2001.

S&P said the outlook for Japan remains negative due to the delays in structural reform, which Koizumi pledged would be the cornerstone of his administration.


Old Yeller
Equity players face potential losses on massive collar positions
http://www.derivativesweek.com/top+stories/equity+players+face+potential+losses+on.asp
No need to regulate these people,hopefully they'll all disappear soon enough.
RobotGuy
Hong Kong and N.Y. selling while London buying??
My interpretation of today's POG movement would indicate that Hong Kong and New York were selling, and London was doing a little buying. Is this just what it looked like, or is it reality?

Are we a little over confident that this week will be a quiet week across the globe?

Perhaps Mr. C. Powell will be successful in delaying events for a few more hours, and at home our markets will be booming! I doubt both.

Cheers!

RobotGuy.
Graefin
Here's my guess...
����302.3����� OOOOOPS! How about $$$$$302.3$$$$$...almost messed it up! Can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket, eh? K...why my guess of $$$$$302.3$$$$$?? How does "Because" sound??
Peace!
- Gr�fin
Graefin
Cavan Man??
$$$$ - In your dreams! - $$$$
Graefin
Because no one wants to come out and play...
I'm goin' to bed! Tsch�ss und guten Nacht!
- Gr�fin
Hipplebeck
todays action
My interpretation is that the US of A is defending the dollar. They are afraid to do it by raising rates, so they have no choice but to sell down gold.
We watch as the citizens gold disappears, as do their retirement funds in their mutual accounts. 401ks are bleeding into foriegn accounts.
I wonder how long before those foriegners quit accepting paper gold and demand delivery, or if they already have.
Cavan Man
Hipplebeck
All the gold we need is in Nevada.
Black Blade
Iran Calls for One-Month Anti-Israeli Oil Embargo
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020415/wl_nm/energy_iran_embargo_dc_6
Snippit:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran on Monday called for Islamic states to declare a one-month oil embargo against Israel's main allies to support the Palestinians. The call by moderate President Mohammad Khatami echoed a similar one by powerful Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 10 days ago which largely fell on deaf ears. Neighboring former foe Iraq last week enforced a unilateral oil export embargo. Libya has said it would support an embargo by other Islamic exporters.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein urged Iran on Sunday to give part of one month's oil revenues to the Palestinian people. He criticized Iran for making the call for an oil embargo, but then doing nothing to implement it. "Khatami in a message to the head of the Organization of the Islamic Conference called for a simultaneous cut of oil exports from Islamic oil exporting countries for one month to Israel's main supporters," state television said. He said the embargo would be in response to what he called "crimes against humanity" committed by the Israeli army in their two-week operation in the West Bank.


Black Blade: Iran produces over 3 million bbl/day, second in OPEC only to Saudi. Let's see now, Chavez is back and the production cuts in Venezuela remain (as well as a possible continuation of the strike), Iraq cuts exports for 30 days, and OPEC restricts production along with agreements from non-OPEC producers. Hmmm�
Black Blade
GE to cut 7,000 jobs in 2002
http://www.msnbc.com/news/739003.asp?cp1=1
Stock under pressure on Wall Street

Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 15 � General Electric Co. said Monday it was reducing its total headcount by 7,000 in 2002, about 2.3 percent of its total workforce. GE said the cuts would be made at its huge financial arm, GE Capital, in an ongoing drive to cut costs and improve productivity. On Wall Street, GE shares were down sharply ahead of the layoff news, amid investor disappointment with the company's first-quarter results and doubts about its future performance.

Black Blade: Also, Goldman Sachs turned down a request from GE for a $1 billion loan. Meanwhile the "Bone Pile" grows higher as GE's media Trolls tout the strong US economic "recovery". Hmmm...
Black Blade
Corning Sees 4,000 More Job Cuts, CEO to Leave
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020415/telecoms_corning_outlook_9.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW), the world's largest maker of fiber-optic cable, said on Monday it may cut up to 12.5 percent of its work force and close some plants amid the lingering telecommunications slump.

``Perhaps up to 4,000 people,'' or about 12.5 percent of the company's 32,000 employees worldwide, might be laid off, Chief Financial Officer James Flaws told Reuters. He said a specific number is not yet decided.


Black Blade: Oh yeah, Corning too! Also, Oracle warns on earnings, and Cisco is expected to do the same. Some "recovery".
Black Blade
Strategists point to shrinking indexes but like gold - Thom Calandra Goes Golden
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6D974C52%2D2DFC%2D4C3B%2D9A12%2D624904A590AC%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - I can't say I've done the entire peroxide treatment on my head of dark brown hair, but after one session at a workingman's hair-dresser in north London during the Easter break, my hair is definitely sun kissed. My bleach job came in celebration of spot gold's price staying above the $300-an-ounce watermark for five straight days. It was a pledge made last year, and one I was glad to honor.

James Dines, an investment newsletter editor known to many as "The Original Gold Bug" for his belief in gold mining companies in the 1960s and 70s, sums up what he sees as rough times ahead for the stock market with this quip: "What do you call falling out of an airplane at 10,000-feet without a parachute? Jumping to a conclusion."

Dines, editor of The Dines Letter, notes that May is the beginning month for the worst six months (May to October) of the year. That's "a bullish factor for gold stocks since they tend to move opposite the market." Dines, whose recommended portfolios in mining companies the past nine months have doubled and in some cases tripled, advises folks to steer clear of most stocks outside the precious metals group. He especially dislikes pharmaceutical companies that have been hit hard by shrinking portfolios of branded drugs and currency fluctuations in Argentina and elsewhere.

Dines, based in California, sees Nasdaq and other broad market gauges jumping to a conclusion, one that is far below their current levels. Looming trade wars, currency turmoil, more terrorism and a tapped-out American consumer are some of the culprits, he says.

Black Blade: Thom Calandra dyes his hair Gold (find the Golden Boy's picture down the page). Dines gives a positive outlook for Gold. I agree that the stock markets are in deep S***. Corporate earnings are failing to materialize and there is no real economic recovery. If anything � the economic situation is getting much worse. Corporations are deep in debt (at record levels) and they are not making capital expenditures. The consumer cannot keep floating the economy for ever. The consumer is about tapped out. Next could be a real estate bust. Today I saw a report on the possibility of real estate being the next bubble to pop. Many bought 2 or 3 extra homes on the hope of selling for a profit. Not likely in a deepening recession. As always, get outta debt (as soon as possible), get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare just as you would as if there were no income for a year.
Black Blade
Accounting, revenue worries assail GE
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4AEF8C32%2D5836%2D49E8%2D953B%2D187508C7719D%7D&siteid=mktw
Industrial giant to cut 7,000 jobs at GE Capital this year

Snippit:

FAIRFIELD, Conn. (CBS.MW) -- Shares of General Electric tumbled Monday after a published report voiced some money managers' concerns that the corporate giant's robust earnings growth had benefited from "financial engineering" and aren't certain to be sustainable.

Black Blade: A GE corporate VP was on CNBC trying to desperately refute these claims. He was almost outta breath, yet was very unconvincing as he hemmed and hawed about GE's phoney books. Good thing that Jack Welch got out while the "gettin� was good" (aside form his wife wanting half his wealth in divorce settlement over his adultery).
Black Blade
Electricity Prices in U.S. Midwest Rise as Hot Weather Returns
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APLrucxYURWxlY3Ry
Snippit:

Rochester, Minnesota, April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Midwest electricity prices had their biggest gain since last summer as unusually warm weather prompted homeowners and businesses to crank up their air conditioners for the first time this year.

High temperatures in Minneapolis will be above 80 degrees Fahrenheit today, close to a record and well above the normal 59, the National Weather Service said. The warm spell comes as many utilities, which expect low demand at this time of year, have shut some power plants for annual spring repairs.


Black Blade: Here we go again. Just like last year. Notice that natural gas prices jumped by 30 cents to $3.43 Mbtu on concerns of early draw on supply. There has been very little exploration and production of NG this year and we are setting ourselves up for a severe energy crisis (perhaps not as bad as last, then again maybe so). The NOAA has projected that this year will be the beginning of a new El Ni--o weather pattern along with higher temperatures. Fewer power plants, degrading antiquated infrastructure, drought conditions in some parts of the US, and lower hydrocarbon supply almost guarantee higher energy costs. Just another nail in the coffin for the supposed economic "recovery".
Rock
Operative
That was a real classic idea Operative. I love the true entrepreneural spirit that you have. Good day mate.
Rock
YGM
US Gold Stats....
http://www.goldinstitute.org/supply/Nevada the prospectors nirvanna......
Black Blade
Venezuela's crippled economy
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1925000/1925514.stm
In Venezuela, there's no action outside the oil business

Snippit:

It's not every day that demonstrators take to the streets in support of oil company executives.

Key figures, 2001
Population: 24.5 million
GDP growth: 2.7%
GDP per head: $5,250
Oil production: 3.1 million barrels/day
Exports: $27.8bn
Imports: $16.8bn
Inflation: 12.5%
External debt: $35bn

Like many a previous Latin American leader, Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's populist president, was eased out of office by a last-minute shove from the army. But his real usurpers were the ranks of the middle class, office workers and union officials protesting against Mr Chavez's perceived mismanagement of the economy. In particular, they blame Mr Chavez for wrecking PDVSA, the vastly dominant state oil company, by sabotaging its strategy and replacing its management with yes-men. Although their attempt to put in place a new government has failed, the episode will serve as a stark warning to Mr Chavez that many Venezuelans are running out of patience with his handling of the economy. The result was that dollar earnings from oil were down 20% year on year at the beginning of 2002, bringing to an abrupt end years of double-digit growth in the industry.


Black Blade: There was Brazil with extreme inflation, then Ecuador with an imploding Sucre that led to dollarization, then Argentina having gone tits up, and now there's the next domino to fall - Venezuela.

YGM
Gambling on Derivatives- - - -
YGM
Financial Scandals...
http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals/Derivatives, Non existent Gold reserves etc...W/Links.
Christian
Gold price guess
$$$$297.60$$$$ Rigged Commodity gold price. Credit creation gold is $9,000+. Everything is monetized. Fed can buy anything with its unlimited digitized money and sell it for less and still make money. I wish i could do that. Free Trade = U.S. trades its junk created money that cost nothing to produce for goods the poorest people on earth are forced to produce for us.
Alchemist
contest guess
$$$$300.50$$$$$$
Having watched the behavior of the powers that be to control and keep gold in certain range of price, I believe that the price is being 'managed' higher but under controlled conditions. There is much talk about $350.00 this year so it will move in approximate increments of about $10.00. There seemed to be a range of around $290 in the past but we are now around the $300 range. Thus my guess.
Arcticfox
cnbc
Can't believe that Jim Kramer's(spelling)sidekick and guest just predicted DOW headed towards 30,000+...Amazing!
YGM
Money Mongers...BANKERS/UN/NWO.. Not Only Gold But The Public Trusts of LAND.
http:www.themoneymasters.com/article.htmExcerpt....


There has also been afoot for some time the "debt-for-nature" scheme proposed at the 4th World Wilderness Conference held in Denver, Colorado in 1987 of forcing nations to transfer national parks and undeveloped areas (up to 30% of the world's wilderness - 12 billion acres) to a World Wilderness Trust or similar U.N. agencies (and thereby effectively losing sovereignty over part of their national territory) which would function as a collection agent for the IMF, the World Bank and private banks and would operate as follows:

Creditor banks transfer 3rd world debt to the World Conservation Bank (a new bank with a "soft" name) thereby relieving the debtor nations of their debt to the original banks;


at full book value (even though these loans now have market values as low as 6-25 cents on the dollar and cost the banks nothing to create due to fractional reserve banking - the legally required reserve ratio on such loans being typically 0%);


in return for such debt relief, the debtor nations would transfer to the World Wilderness Trust natural resource assets of equivalent value (World Heritage sites such as the Amazon basin or the gold-laden hills around Yellowstone will likely be included at some point);


the World Wilderness Trust will eventually allow development by the World Conservation Bank in order to pay the private banks full value for the transferred debts.

Obviously, this scheme, which is already being implemented in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Ecuador, simply interposes a new bank to act in the name of the international community (or the U.N.) as collection agent for the private banks and their jointly run banks (e.g. the IMF and the World Bank), thereby obscuring the stark reality of de facto foreclosure proceedings by private banks against whole national territories. This transforms a politically unpalatable worldwide land grab by private banks into a "conservation transfer" to a body that appears to be a neutral conservation agency of some kind. One of the remarkable features of such institutions is their immunity to popular influence and their hostility to democracy and human need. Widespread economic exploitation of these transferred territories by the private banks will be authorized by the new bank owners, absent the many inconveniences of national sovereignty, regulation and authentic environmental control.

Similar schemes propose every imaginable means, referred to as "substitutes for war", to exploit or eliminate the poor through coercive forms of demographic control including poverty, famine, forced abortions and sterilization, euthanasia and eugenics, the introduction of new diseases, environmental pollution, etc., and, of course, war itself. A goal of 300-500 million people worldwide (less than 10% of the current world population) is a common theme. Selected, smaller numbers are far easier to manipulate and control, besides, having reduced those on the bottom to unemployment, total desperation and utter destitution, they have no more material utility and being in unresigned and irreligious poverty are too susceptible to authentic "reactionary" alternatives or disturbance. Obviously, such "solutions" are morally repugnant and sound reform alternatives must be presented, which do not destabilize the entire financial system with the attendant risks of a generalized crisis.

What Christianity forbids is to seek solutions ... by the ways of hatred, by the murdering of defenseless people, by the methods of terrorism ... - Pope John Paul II

The granting of loan extensions, rescheduling, rate reductions or partial remission of debts, though helpful, are at best temporary stop-gap measures merely delaying the day of reckoning. Of course, a debt jubilee (total remission of debts) would entirely solve the problem for the present, but is more than unlikely as few creditors take a broad, selfless or charitable enough view to support such a solution.

Rather, too many creditor banks foist policies on their nations, which assume the shape of a ruthless war on the poorer nations, and on the poor in their nations, financing projects over-priced through the fraudulent complicity of corrupted politicians creating odious debts. For example: during the decade 1980-90 Latin American countries paid $418 billion in interest on original loans of $80 billion.

By the end of 1990, 3rd world debt had passed $1.3 trillion � over $200 for every living person on earth. This debt had increased by 30% in three years. Debtor nations had total arrears of $26 billion in interest. The Financial Review (October 4, 1990) pointed out that much of the debt was owed to private banks, and that:

...the swelling of arrears has drawn concern from the IMF, where some officials complain that banks are successfully pressing the IMF to become their debt-collection agency...

Nations endowed with power are creating new forms of relationships of inequality and oppression, perverting the use of modern technology and global organizations for this purpose, rather than seeking just revision of loan terms or fundamental reform.

Since most modern money is created by banks as bank loans with an equivalent debt, all nations trade from a position of indebtedness. As a result, nations attempt to export more than they import, deliberately seeking an imbalance of trade, trying to gain a surplus of foreign revenues to reduce their indebtedness. This has caused international trade and foreign relations, to descend from trade for mutual benefit, to thinly disguised economic warfare.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

****And how do you battle this giant? I would guess you don't, you just prepare for the enevitable. Guns, Gold & Beans = Survival....YGM.

R Powell
YGM and Old Yeller
Thanks for the derivatives links.
POG down, POS way down.
So, buy the dips!
Rich
The Invisible Hand
Bis repetita placet ***** $ 8,752 *****
The Invisible Hand (02/13/02; 20:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 69957)
***** 8,752 *****
Contest - What contest?
Here's my entry

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****

Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
YGM
Try again w/ Money Masters Link...
http:www.moneymasters.com/article.htmStrange happenings here in my box...Maybe I visit sites the cyber cops monitor cause I sure get alot of freeze ups & other strange problems from time to time.....YGM
YGM
Ah ha!
http://www.moneymasters.com/article.htmTime for eye rest or glasses, sorry for repetitiveness....
YGM
#!%&^*#@!
http://www.themoneymasters.com/article.htmRed face or what! Sheeesh!
R Powell
arcticfox
Dow at 30,000?
Perhaps Cramer's sidekick was merely giving us his inflation adjusted prediction. Now, if POG reverts to its Dow divided by POG mean of 6, then we'll have the Dow at 30,000 and POG at $5,000/ounce and a two bedroom fixer-uper at about half a million.
Do you suppose the government will still bother to mint pennies? I have an extensive collection.
Rich
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
MY CONTEST ENTRY!
$$$$$$$$ 297.70 $$$$$$$$
Cocky Cabal having things going their way! DOWN!
Does not matter; The only beneficial thing
about the price of the JUNE or any other month
contract, is providing valuable information to
us GOLDBUGS when we buy PHYSICAL. Gives us a heads up
on what we can expect to pay!
U.S. GOLD: THANKS for the contest!
d.j.p.
sector
Corning-400; GE-7000 Layoffs...Now the Housing Glut...The "Chumps Recovery" Marches On.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Real-Estate-Blues.htmlApril 14, 2002
Cities Have Too Much Office Space
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:57 p.m. ET
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Economists see signs the recession is abating, but that's little consolation to those who own office space in America's cities, where rents are plummeting because of the biggest glut of commercial real estate in years.

Even as U.S. companies are adding jobs and home sales remain brisk, the nation's office vacancy rate hit 14.7 percent in the first quarter -- the highest since the mid-1990s, according to Reis Inc., a New York real estate investment firm.

It might be hard to summon sympathy for landlords, but thinned-out business districts create plenty of pain for other people -- and provide a snapshot of the state of the economic recovery.

``More empty buildings mean less business for everything to coffee stands to small restaurants, cafes, business services, personal services,'' said business consultant Tapan Munroe, former chief economist for Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Perhaps no place illustrates the issue as vividly as San Francisco, which is still marveling at how fast the dot-com boom went bust.

A record 21 percent of the city's office space is vacant, nearly three times the rate at this time last year, according to the Grubb & Ellis real estate company.

Henri
YGM...moneychangers article
Thank you for this link...very impressive presentation which should be placed in every surviving real newspaper that has an editorial section (A lost aspect of true free press) or be debated and or just presented at every town meeting.
YGM
Henri & Rich.....You may have this already.....
http://www.barefootsworld.net/usfraud.html(Excerpt)

THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS NOTHING BUT CREDIT AND DEBT.

THE WORLD CREDIT UNION

Here is what is going to very quickly happen internationally. All of the governments around the world are going to unite. They will create one big giant credit union for collecting the debt for the International Bankers. We have allowed ourselves do get into this very sad situation, but THAT IS THE WAY IT IS.

The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -- "State Tamperings with Money Banks" -- Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)


WELCOME TO YOUR
NEW WORLD ORDER


**Note** Main barefootsworld page...
www.barefootsworld.net/index.html
**Well worth the visit, many links and info....YGM
Bulldog
manipulation
We all agree that most markets are manipulated today. When does adverse news like the thousands and thousands that have lost their jobs, the alleged buying of gold by Japanese housewives, the 21% vacancies in S.F. office buildings, etc
have an impact on gold? I am concerned about an outright depression because the news does not get any rosier. At some point in time, this economic scenario is going to crash. I would like to hear from someone in San Francisco
with their impressions on the report earlier posted that one fifth of all office buildings are vacant, which means that some are completely vacant. What has that done to housing prices? Is there double digit unemployment there or did all those people who are no longer in the offices leave for jobs elsewhere?
I assume that the balls in the air will come crashing down
when it is finally recognized that the state can no longer make its social security payments. Gonna get ugly.
Mythical
Contest Entry $$$$ 301.9 $$$$
No signs of the "paper pushers" loosening their grip and letting gold wander out of it's tight trading range. You'll hear no complaints from this gold advocate as I will continue to add to my growing stash... today was a good day...added a few Hamburg 20 Marks to my family's "insurance policy." Can you say Clink,Clink?
YGM
From the Geneva Papers.....DERIVATIVES RISKS....
As Identified By the...B.I.S./B.O.E./C.F.T.C./G.A.O./G-30 ****These risks were identified prior to 1994 and one must remember that the OTC Derivative Trade at the time was insignificant compared to today....Many of the top US Banks today have Deriv exposure 500 to 700 times their Capital Asset base.....How fast can you say 'Insolvency'or get your cash during the stampede. Remember Brazil not so long ago!
**********************************************************



Market Risk: The exposure to the possibility of financial loss resulting from unfavourable movements in market parameters, such as interest and currency rates as well as equity and commodity prices.

Settlement Risk: The exposure to the possibility of financial loss resulting from settlement failures which can cause widespread disruption of payment systems.

Credit Risk: The exposure to the possibility of financial loss resulting from a counterparty's failure to meet its financial obligations from a derivative contract.

Systemic Risk: The possibility that due to some unforeseen event the liquidity of a financial system suddenly dries up causing chain reactions such as counterparty defaults or asset price crashes and a breakdown of the financial system as a whole.

Legal Risk: The exposure to the possibility of financial loss resulting from legal uncertainties, such as an action by a court or by a regulatory or legislative body that could invalidate a financial contract or a netting agreement.

**BTW...Bankers probably hate me as much as I hate them cause I deal in cash, & Gold, no loans or credit cards, and barter as much as possible....One can only function so far out of the system, but every little bit makes me feel less under the yoke of the control freaks and their nefarious plans for society...Oh yes and I sold all my properties and lease a farm. If the SHTF badly who'll buy whatever land you own anyway. Here today, somewhere else tomorrow if need be...........YGM.

(lessons learned from life thus far)

sector
@BullDog Not Everybody Agrees thet Manipulation Exists...
...The Elliot Wavers Press OnPrechter's hypothesis of technical analysis stipulates that markets are driven by human decisions of fear and greed. Those controlling forces can be "charted". "Channels" and other graphical patterns lead the believer to "profits".

Where the theory fails is in its founding definitions...that markets are driven by a single group with predictable desires and fears. This premise is not true in precious metals.

In precious metals the government [Which is the largest player] has goals vastly different from the bulk of ordinary participants. While PM commodities participants are driven by profit motive and fear its loss, the government goal is to undermine interest in PMs and support its interest-bearing paper scrip [Which unlike gold and silver can be freely replicated at will].

This heterogeneous mix of market participants rules out any meaningful technical analysis since one can never know when the dominant player will change its tactics...tactics which are based upon private committee decisions.

On the more transparent TOCOM gold market, three players for years maintain precious metals open interest which is almost always 98% to 100% short. No randomly traded market could allow such extreme positions to survive for long. The players would lose so much in their gambles that they would eventually be replaced by their profit-conscious managers.

Sumitomo, Mitsui and Mitsubishi are obviously supported by another entity uninterested in the ultimate profitability of their always-short positions. The most likely entity is the BOJ.

The fly in the ointment is the problem that physical metal must be sold to maintain such a scam. That metal is an exhaustible resource. When it resourse runs dry a kind of gap-up happens as it did in 1971 with Nixon's dollar/gold devaluation of 10X.

I attended the Sun 'N Fun fly-in in Lakeland and found a neat new trainer which was selling for $145,000. In 1971 a similar Piper Cherokee 140 sold for $14,000. Thus, the exact 10X devaluation through currency inflation was apparent.

The gap-up is looming now as the big players seem to have covered their shorts just ahead of the May FOMC meeting...and a pending Middle East war.





turkey hunter
@ YGM
Hey thanks for that "Barefoot" home page. I've been looking for info on the "Civil" flag of the United States.
Pizz
More Derivitives Games - The SEC slipped up
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/willettalway041502.html
An interesting senario may be brewing this week in IBM (and tech) derivitives this week. It has the potential for media spin, PPT intervention, and just plain old market manipulation. In any case, it will probably help reinforce the attributes of buying and holding physical, since I have no reason to believe that the PM derivitives markets are any different than stock; are just as volatile; (and will get much more so with an upward bias - smile); are manipulated (as we all know) and probably should not be traded by us little guys (gals) unless we have twice the physical we need and extra fiat to burn (not likely at least for me).

If nothing else, just substitute gold for IBM and you may get a feel for how paper can control spot prices and how the big players can work the system.

Now, I've followed IBM for years and the above article really snagged my attention:

A quote from a portion:

"On April 11 IBM was down almost 10% at its worse level but rebounded to close down only by 5.42%. The healthy dose of pessimism that hit IBM's stock price was that SEC Insight (the newsletter) reported that the SEC might still be investigating IBM.

Up until the close of the session everything was ordinary: IBM's share price was fluctuating, and an IBM spokeswoman said, "We don't comment on rumors". However, after the closing bell rang something miraculous took place -- the SEC said that, "Regarding the reports of a preliminary inquiry by the SEC into IBM, the SEC staff opened an inquiry and closed it without action shortly thereafter."

There are two related problems with the SEC making this statement:

1) The SEC has rarely, if ever, done this before (or commented on rumors in an attempt to calm the markets - stock(s)).

2) The announcement sets a precedent which will not be followed � a precedent which will most certainly confuse many investors in the future."

-------------------------------------------------------

Now, I do not believe (yet) that the SEC is part of the PPT, but I do believe that someone may be on the brink or in some serious trouble and some high level phone calls were made. Why else would the SEC comment on a rumor when IBM did not feel it necessary?. But since the SEC comment failed to rally IBM, and if there's a problem out there, the PPT will have to take over.

To set the stage, last week IBM worked down to 97 and change and was just above a 5 year up trend line at 96. A lot of speculators were expecting IBM to bounce and had written a lot of April puts from 100, 95, 90, and 85 strike prices. On the 8th IBM warned and the stock price gapped down 10 points and the put writers lost their breakfasts.

If you go to the link below, you'll see that there are still over 100,000 April puts open at these strikes at an average price of about 10 bucks. If I can still multiply, that's about 100,000,000 dollars worth of in or at the money puts. Rumors of IBM warning were out there, but obviously someone didn't believe it, or gambled they wouldn't warn rather than cover.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ibm&d=o

Now, who writes puts? Shorts can write them for income, but it's not really in their nature to hedge their positions. Mutual funds can't, but private hedge funds have no qualms about writing naked puts, especially if you either believe or know that the PPT is on your side, and you're convinced the markets are going to move sideways or up. Is it coincidence that a lot of very wealthy connected people invest in these private hedge funds? (Just like gold leasing - it's no lose - right???). If you really want a chuckle, imagine a Kramer type managing drug money in a private hedge fund and making the wrong bet . . . . .

Do we have a large hedge fund overexposed by writing put options on tech stocks that may have TPTB worried?? My guess after the little SEC issue is yes, and we may have some market manipulation coming this week before these puts are excercised and the wrong someone(s)has a bunch of overvalued tech stocks "put" to them at 10 - 15 % over market value.

Right now the options market-makers are holding a ton of in the money puts, the short stock players want to hold their gains, and the writers are in the ditch. Who will win? My bet after the SEC comment is that the writers are going to be in much better shape come Friday and the market makers and shorts may find themselves in the same position as when Mr. G lowered interest rates 30 minutes before close on options expiration day a couple years ago. An IBM short squeeze to cover a hedge fund???

As I write this at 9:30 PM PST, Island has the tech stocks up 1 to 3 percent.

If the tech rally holds, PM's may correct this week, but it's a buying oportunity. Think long term and buy the metal. Don't trade paper in a rigged game - metal or stock.

Pizz

YGM
@Pizz...
Thanks for that info...we should have a contest to name the next "LTCM" .....
Gandalf the White
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
PROGRESS REPORT !!

GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456

$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392

$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451

$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490

$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444


---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
=====
<;-)

Belgian
The Financial Brotherhood - Goldminers - POG
Have a look (last one) at the (depressing) Miningweb (= Anglo Amereican), with a nice example of 2 articles wich do illustrate how POG is *mastered* by seemingly contradictory interests (goldminers and moneyprinters-banks).
JP Morgan (Australia) trumpets gold-hedging again as the nec plus ultra for smart miners ! JP Morgan's CRYSTAL BALL says that the consensus (= all crystal (ca)balls) forecast for 2005 = 313$ !!!Yep, 3 years from now without a POG move ! Give me one single commodity that can be predicted with such a consensus-certainty for a period of 3 years ?
And suddenly ABX (Oliphantus) discovers the South African (brotherhood) underground riches ! We definitely must go down there and profit from the concialitory SA-central bank in adapting (crashing) the rand as to give authority to JP Morgan's crystal ball(s) forecast(s) ! A flat POG for the next 3 years !

Yesterday's intraday move of POG was (again) a shool-example
of a mini panic : nic tictactictactic up to 303$ and bangggg...knock off under the 300$...because the crystal ball(s) was heating up and melting (melting point 308$ degrees). Remember the Deutsche Bank 290$ melting point when UK goldreserves came to rescue.

So basicaly the main tactic is to stabilize POG as much as possible to dis-encourage Gold accumulation by the fore-runners � la Japanese. It has become less a matter of finding new Gold, volonteering for intervention...but rather disencourage healthy Gold accumulation.
Currency debacles (rand/Aus$) keep the miners afloat and reward them for their hedging cooperation with some profits.

In such a collusionary situation...surprises are not to be excluded ! You always have infidels, looking for a surprise attack and fatal blow to a competitor. Dogs eat dogs, don't they ?

Chosing the wrong mine is a high probability (risk) for many punters...accumulating Physical is equal to zero risk with all the chances in the world for very high rewards.

Miners and bullion banks are brainwashing us (goldbugs + advocates) with very, very specific Gold price ranges !
Dear reader, they have a well defined purpose for such a net-propaganda. It is OK and fine to prop up goldshare valuations as long as POG remains in line with the massive derivative positions. The www-public (goldbugs) do feed share valuations, whilst Giants further accumulate the Physical at obscene prices. Forget the eternal blahblah of offer and demand and look what happens to oil prices (analogy).

This morning Dow futures + 45 ! What a circus ! What a show ! Before it was only in love and war that everything was permitted...now we can definitely add financials as well !




Grubstaker
Mr Gresham
I have always regarded you as a gentleman here. What you have posted is applicable to "PAPER" transactions. In the case of a write off on physical GOLD the rules are quite different. In this case the 30 day period is not applicable among other particulars. I realize I am being elusive to all the details and await sufficient interest to expound further in detail. The method is 100% legal and totally above board. The IRS also has a name for it...
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
@Hippelbeck - Will they knock down the mosque?
There is a time for everything and a season for all activities under heaven:

A time to be born and a time to die,
A time to plant and a time to uproot,
A time to kill and a time to heal,
A TIME TO TEAR DOWN AND A TIME TO BUILD,
A time to weep and a time to laugh,
A time to mourn and a time to dance,
A time to scatter stones and a time to gather them,
A time to embrace and a time to refrain,
A time to search and a time to give up,
A time to keep and a time to throw away,
A time to tear and a time to mend,
A time to be silent and a time to speak,
A time to love and a time to hate,
A time for war and a time for peace.

As the twin came down in New York,
So also the twin in Yerushaleim must surely come down

Is there anything new under the sun?
Is not the Cornerstone already laid?
However, this third one shall not be for the Glory of Hashem Elohim.
That will be the fourth.

Incidentally, some gold will be required for this activity.
Two lots from Eddie and Gordon's Roadshow would suffice. For now.

Henri
YGM NWO and such
Was wondering if you have read any Galambos? "Sic Itur Ad Astra"? More advanced volitional science than presented in the articles you sent. The answers the world is not ready to embrace yet
Black Blade
Gold Fields: Gold prices too low
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Companies/0,4186,2-8-24_1168791,00.html
Snippit:

Melbourne - Gold Fields Limited said on Tuesday that gold prices are too low to stimulate widespread exploration in the gold mining industry. "At US$300 (an ounce), the gold price is not yet high enough to either justify massive increases in expenditure and/or development of any resulting discoveries," Gold Fields chief executive Chris Thompson said. "Most of what is available out there can't really be profitably developed at $300," Thompson told the Australian Gold Conference.


Black Blade: I have discussed this before. There is no exploration for PMs anymore. Very little exploration is occurring around existing mines. Obviously as reserves are depleted and the lag time for starting a mine is several years, expect declining production even after the POG rebounds.
Black Blade
Japan may drive gold price to $330
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020415194109438N243211&set_id=60

Snippit:

Melbourne - Gold prices might rise to $330 an ounce this year, the highest since 1999, as demand gained in Japan and violence in the Middle East would lead investors to buy the metal as a safe haven, analysts said yesterday.

"What you're getting in Japan is a real crisis of confidence in their banking system," said Brian Bath, the managing director of Australian Gold Refineries, which is half-owned by Newmont and refines two-thirds of Australia's gold production. "People are going into gold coins or any other gold as a defence against any concerns that they have."

"The Japanese have lost confidence in political leaders to right their economic woes and are buying gold by the bucketload," said Tamara Stevens, the Australian Gold Council's chief executive.

Japanese demand might rise again in early 2003 if banking rules were changed again, analysts said. The nation's investors were concerned about the weakness among Japan's banks, which hold about '151 trillion in problem loans.

"The gold boom may emerge again before next April, when the government will expand its limit to other deposits," said Nobuyuki Kudo, a gold researcher at Ace Koeki, a Tokyo-based commodity futures brokerage. "The rising trend in gold demand from Japanese investors will continue."


Black Blade: The Japanese are still buying physical metal while the TOCOM traders are selling. Looks like a transfer of paper wealth to Gold.
Black Blade
Gold is still a safe haven for offshore investors
http://www.businessday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1063232-49567170-0,00.html
Snippit:

Gold has been the place to be over the past year, with local fund manager Johan van der Merwe delivering an astonishing 129% return in rands to investors in his Investec GSF Global Gold Fund. Equally heartening is that his fund provided a 60% return in dollar terms.

Black Blade: Gold has risen very well in foreign currencies. If the Argentines had only known.
Black Blade
Gold Catalysts Research Advances
http://www.gold.org/finalgold/d_value/sd_science_and_technology/publications/Spring%20Issue.pdf
The link is to a 4 page pdf file. Very interesting research on industrial, automotive, and fuel cell gold catalysts for pollution controls. Well worth reading - from the WGC

- Black Blade
Arcticfox
Supply Shortage Looms...
http://free.financialmail.co.za/02/0412/busec/bbus.htm12 April 2002
GOLD PRODUCTION
SUPPLY SHORTAGE LOOMS UNLESS PRICE IMPROVES
By Brendan Ryan


The chickens of exploration underspending come home to roost




The world's supply of newly mined gold has peaked and will drop from this year because of a lack of investment in exploration for new projects and replacement of reserves by the major producers.



Ian Cockerill
That's one of the supply-side fundamentals supporting the metal as the gold price sticks to its higher new trading range of around US300/oz.

The debate over whether a bull market in gold really has returned continues; the case in favour was spelt out in a bullish presentation by Gold Fields CEO-designate Ian Cockerill at the recent Paydirt Gold Conference in Perth. A similar assessment was given at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto by New York-based Toqueville Asset Management's John Hathaway.


According to Cockerill, the past 20 years of declining gold prices and low profit margins have resulted in little investment in replenishing reserves, many of which have been overstated anyway. Spending on exploration has decreased dramatically and there has been considerable high-grading of existing reserves.


"Included in current reserves are a number of projects, representing a sizeable chunk of reported reserves, which are unlikely to proceed unless we see a marked and sustained increase in the gold price," says Cockerill. "This becomes an issue when one realises that, at current production rates, we are mining between 75m oz and 85m oz of our reserves every year, but not replacing them. Current world reserves will last about 10 years."


Hathaway reckons total mine output peaked last year, at about 2 600 t, and will now decline, assuming there is no change in the gold price.


"Even if the gold price were to rise by 100/oz, the supply response would be muted. Mothballed capacity is negligible. Lower exploration means fewer ounces are being discovered," says Hathaway.


"Industry production has been achieved at the cost of depleting capital, especially through high-grading and starving mine-development expenditure. The growth' in output achieved by several of the major companies has been acquisitive rather than organic," he says.


Research by Toronto-based Beacon Group Advisors indicates that gold supply will drop rapidly - by up to 22% - over the next few years if the gold price stays at around $300/oz.


But there are about 40 new mines or expansion projects in the pipeline that would come on stream should the price rise to between $325/oz and $350/oz. That prediction does not affect Cockerill's bullish outlook for the metal.


"You may argue there are sufficient projects in the pipeline to make up for the decline in production and reserves. Research shows the 10 best projects in the global pipeline will at best, and given a substantially higher gold price, add only about 5m oz to production annually.


"This is not remotely enough to fill the gap. To do that, we need a gold price of around $350/oz, sustained for a significant period, on top of which we need at least two years to construct the new projects," he says.


The other gold supply sources are hedging and central bank sales, but Cockerill does not believe either will fill the looming deficit. "In a declining gold market, hedging is a source of supply to the market; but in a rising gold market, hedging rapidly turns into a source of demand for gold as producers scramble to cover their positions.


"The hedging of previous years is coming home to roost and companies that have pawned the family gold may have to face serious challenges, as well as tough questions from shareholders," he says.


Turning to central bank sales, Cockerill points out the Washington Agreement limiting such sales remains in force until 2005. He believes the agreement will be renewed, and says central banks are faced with a tough choice in selling gold while it is in an upward trend and "outperforming all other currencies, as it has been doing for the past year".

Black Blade
Gold Lower, Oil and Natural Surge Higher
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is down in London by about a buck, while NY Crude has been over $25/bbl and natural gas is back to $3.49 Mbtu on Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq news and renewed incursions by Israeli troops and tanks into other Palestinian towns in spite of pleas by Dubya to withdraw. Also a large scale military operation in the eastern Afghan mountains is underway this morning. It appears that Americans, some Brits, and Afghans are sweeping the high country along the Paki-Afghan border. Also reports that Osama Bin Laden survived and may soon be actively directing new terrorist activities again. Also, over the weekend the Saudis had a telethon that raised over $92 million for the families of martyrs (like the Iraqis). Other news is that the "Energy Plan" is dead as far as the Senate is concerned. Conditions are ripening for much higher petroleum prices. Scratch one economic recovery.

- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
WAC
I can't wait!
Then we'll have WWIII, the messiah, the new order of things, etc.
I expect the Arabs to accept only gold dirhams for their oil one day. They will be moneychangers. If they have that long.
Cavan Man
Hipplebeck
That's their history, trade and exchange. The circle stays unbroken.
EagleOne
Contest
$$$$ 303.50 $$$$ Seems to be on the slowly rising trent line beginning late last year.
YGM
@ Henri
Andrew J. Galambos
Astrophysicist, Integrator of the Science of Volition, Founder of the Free Enterprise Institute and the Liberal Institute of Natural Science and Technology

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This site is dedicated to Andrew J. Galambos, innovator and integrator of the Social Sciences, which he calls the Science of Volition. It is through his theories of Freedom and Primary Property that a durable social structure can be built, where the individual is paramount and Freedom is the quality.

YGM
@ Henri.........
http://www.galambos.com/Andrew J. Galambos
Astrophysicist, Integrator of the Science of Volition, Founder of the Free Enterprise Institute and the Liberal Institute of Natural Science and Technology

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This site is dedicated to Andrew J. Galambos, innovator and integrator of the Social Sciences, which he calls the Science of Volition. It is through his theories of Freedom and Primary Property that a durable social structure can be built, where the individual is paramount and Freedom is the quality.

*** Henri...thanks you very much. Terrific new thinking to
ponder. Thanks again......Ken

PS; AltaVista search is always helpful with web sites...
Here are two more relating to Andrew Galambos...

www.bridgetofreedom.com
www.tuspco.com
USAGOLD Market Commentary
Gold Sideways, Still Consolidating from Recent HighsNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Belgian
Goldminers blahblahblah.....
All these statements on reserves, output, central bank sales, etc...just don't make any sense at all !
The oil CARTEL (!!!) does exists and is operational, isn't it ! This *cartel* makes no other statements than price supporting or price increasing. Yes, oil is consumed, but so is 85% of Gold as jewelry/and other. Oil is not a store of one's wealth, but Gold is.
Goldminers are begging for a price rise to God knows who.
And in the mean time they pay for "in dept" study to reiterate that production hasn't declined in spite of a more than 20 years POG decline. Reason enough to define all these minetalks as nonsense. Goldminers are scared to death by the bullion banks and their supporting backgrounds. Goldminers are scared to death that Gold will be considered as the ultimate store of wealth and that mining Gold will come under control by international agreements or taxed (to death) by the nation state in wich the mine resides.
It is much more fun to explore and dig for Gold in God forgotten places where the currencies are worth less than the paper they are printed on (Africa/South America/China/Russia). The same goes for oil exploration and exploitation.

The Exploitation of global resources at present is to be compared with the early start of the industrial revolution dilemma : If the producing workers should have kept sweating for nickels and dimes, they would never be able to buy the goods they were producing. This idiotic anachronism remains in place for global resources ! And w're even prepared to organize crusades for it to be maintained !
No this is NOT leftist nonsense but rather an expression of indignation about the formidable imbalances and stupid egocentrism, far from pragmatic realism. More wealth for more workers is much more fun and happiness.

I'm not expecting a social reflex from goldminers or oil cartels, but a golden midway policy would be much less complicated.
But reality commands the eternal dogma of the world belonging to the strongest and survival of the fittest.
These primitive principles still rule for those who pretend to export civilisation permanently !? Sorry for getting a bit phylosophical so early in the morning, whilst still sober.
Gandalf the White
Don't forget THAT other CONTEST !!! <;-)
******** Argentinean "Tears" *********ALL
In case YOU missed it ! Tis time to stop crying over what is happening to the SHEEPLES paper wealth and educate them.
I know that many are still composing and there is plenty of time remaining, BUT, it is time to start finalizing your thoughts. Do not miss this chance !!
<;-)
====================

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MDT) on Friday, April 19th. We stand at the time of numerous world calamities, a time of feeling peoples pain, a time of needing to stop and think what the future might bring to you and your family. We have all seen pictures and read stories of the financial pain of the people of Argentina, so Sir MK asks:

"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines ?"

We ask contestants to treat the present potential economic, and political status, together with the recent Argentine financial scenario, as a basis for their entry thinking. Your Contest post must be at least 50 words and it must contain in the subject box the following:

******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

(Note the surrounding STARS !)

The "GRAND PRIZE" will be an Argentina 5 Peso "Argentino" gold coin, over 100 years old and containing 0.2334 troy ounces of gold. There will also be two "runners-up" who will receive Prizes of a one ounce silver Canadian Maple Leaf coin.

(Did you see that you Silverhearts ?) <;-)

We wish you good luck and good fortunes.
YGM
For The "What Next File".....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/04/15/nuke15.xml&sSheet=/news/2002/04/15/ixnewstop.htmlExcerpt.....

MoD shows terrorists how to make an A-bomb
By Michael Smith, Defence Correspondent
(Filed: 15/04/2002)


THE Ministry of Defence has placed a step-by-step guide on how to build an atomic bomb in the Public Record Office for anybody to see.

It has also released a file describing various ways in which such a bomb could be smuggled into the country.

There are complete cross-sections, precise measurements and full details of the materials used for all the components of the first British bomb, including the two key parts: the plutonium core and the initiator that sets off the chain reaction causing the blast.

The plans, seen by The Telegraph and available to anybody of any nationality, are contained in files released over the past five years.

They would enable a terrorist to make an atomic bomb without difficulty, according to an engineer who worked on the British atomic weapons programme.

Knallgold
Do I work for an Enron?
I'm working for one of those big global players'since 16 years so I have gained some insight in whats going on.After the (big) merger in 1997 when a new management took over and mobbed the old one out,everything started to degrade'social climate,IT'salaries,equipment,procedures etc..

I attributed this first to the merger itself,and after some time it really got a bit better,but only until a new round of trash hit our faces.Hard working as I knew and loved it was impossible,too many bureaucratic distractions and stupid procedures.I couldn't be silent and spoke up,but mostly without success as the others kept silent (or already left the company).

Then in january our departement was eliminated,I won't go into details here :-(

Well,I found soon a new job internally,but didn't sign the contract in the last moment."Something just doesen't add up in this company" I thought.At the same time the stock got pushed by analysts,Goldman Sachs etc,a great internal information event took place,everything looked rosy.

"Thats how it must have sounded at Enron" was my thought.Though most told me I am painting black.But I was sure I was seeing something different,especially in this liquidation phase.

So I had to find again a new job in 3(!) days or risk the letter.

Yes,I quit.I couldn't trust anyone anymore (SS!).Especially as it was getting obvious that the company can't do simple mathematic operations.1+1 gave 1.98.Or couldn't(!) pay the promised bonus,with 7 billions profit!Something is terribly wrong,I can't say what,but I suspect a scheme is running.

And yes,I found a new job.A much much better one,with much more salary.And the feeling is back "they do something for their people".I will enjoy work hard for them!

Last but not least,my locked shares got free,"locked stock" has a little bit a bad taste after the Enron scandal...

Plus,for some reason,the company where I left pays a fat compensation for those who leave (no,we are not top-shots!).My friend early called it hush-money.Now I believe her.If I only could shut my mouth...

So I have a lot money at hand,it feels good to form my destiny on my own with it.At 32 you begin to think about "when you get 64".Buying physical Gold is IMHO the best choice right now.(And USAGOLD the best company to buy).Hope POG stays here until the money arrives.Ooops,I hope for a low POG?New experience...




CoBra(too)
DJIA - Up almost 2% ... While the Spin goes on!
- O.K.- while gold is marginally down and production output is up ... actually .7% the best number in 2 years. And early estimates of GDP growth for the latest quarter is probably + 5%!

Yikes, I love it! And even if IBM and GE, the most visible companies in the S&P shed some 100 billion $ market cap in the last few weeks - does it matter? Nah, not really, since we didn't even notice the NASD tanking to the sound of 4-5 Trillion - and why should we? Allan G. is making up for any and every potential loss by printing more of the green stuff.

Well, so far he's been right ... though, it reminds me of the old Western, where James Stewart told his friend: ' Knew a guy, who jumped from the tenth floor ... and at every floor he passed he was reassured - nothing has happened yet! You bet! ... So much for propping up a system, that is technically K.O.

Pathetic, Immelt CEO of GE, looked like a hurt lemming stating that his company - trading at any un-realistic PE -
is sold down for the wrong reasons. The reason is in line with the US Economy, where only 17% of GDP are in the realm of producing goods - in the case of GE it's only 7% - and the guy's complaining!

The current account deficit for the consumers of last resort is 4.5% of GDP - expected to grow to 6% in the next 2 years. A number, where the expected (idiots) of balancing the debt of the US may well decide to pull out of the ride - after all, the US would need about 2 billion $ per day to keep up the fray. ... Oh, well - What do I know?

One thing I do know, so, is that the unholy alliance of keeping the whole (global monetary) system afloat, is the fact that inflation has been concquered forever. Even if it is concquered to the very demise of any and every real productive country - does it matter?

It is for the aggrandization and prolongation of the seignorage of the imperialistic Greenback, a system starting to enslave its own citicenry.

Globalisation - a global scam to keep up the illusion of delusion - until? ... Until, the fiat grand slam $ goes the way of all fiat systems.

Sorry - just venting and will prolong the vent - later -
see u - cb2


Aristotle
Hello Belgian.
Your comment gave me a nice chuckle:

"Sorry for getting a bit phylosophical so early in the morning, whilst still sober."

It's never to early to get philosophical, my dear friend! And now that I've survived the ever-stressing and (de)pressing April 15th deadline of tax season, hopefully I'll be able to join you in waxing all things philosophical.

I think your comments about miners were (a manipulated)Spot On, but I wonder if you would concede a small point, or else set my own thinking straight. You said:

"Goldminers are scared to death that Gold will be considered as the ultimate store of wealth and that mining Gold will come under control by international agreements or taxed (to death) by the nation state in wich the mine resides.
It is much more fun to explore and dig for Gold in God forgotten places where the currencies are worth less than the paper they are printed on (Africa/South America/China/Russia)."

I'm willing to bet that a goodly number of people (mostly the mine investors) who read that, bent upon understanding, will have either of two responses. They will be doubtful, or they will say, "Huh, wha?"

The fact is that someone invested in Gold mining these days could only be committing their investment resources to that end in good conscience if they failed to comprehend the true (Big Picture) state of affairs regarding Gold. Hence, the "Huh, wha?" responses. (Surely, there are others who claim to know better, but invest anyway saying they are fast and nimble enough to trade out with their winnings, but these people are probably beyond any aid that you or I could possibly offer.)

Regarding the other group who read your comments but are doubtful, my guess is that a good share of these people have vision that is clouded by what I might call a Junior syndrome. Through lack of exposure, experience, or mentors, there is a disconnect between their understanding of the realities of operating at a Junior level versus what goes on in the Major leagues. On the Junior level, they go about their business, inexperienced or unexposed to the high level political realities, and consequently remain naive to the clear threat to their operational autonomy resulting from higher Gold (i.e., "Free Gold" as we have come know it) -- something understood by Major leaguers.

For purposes of clarification, wouldn't you agree, Belgian -- so that all those with Junior mentality don't dismiss your comments outright, that the "Goldminers (whom) are scared to death that Gold will be considered as the ultimate store of wealth" are primarily the Majors who see the Big Picture? The Juniors just bubble along in the Majors' wake, knowing it or not, yet sharing their Fate just the same.

My view is that the evolution toward Free Gold (i.e., Gold as the ultimate store of wealth) continues its unrelenting trek driven onward by the "Invisible hand" of the world market. Further, that all these public parades, espousals and intrigues of (most of) the Major miners, the bullion banks, the swap dealers, and the central banks are merely the natural expressions one might expect from participants of a system in transition, perpetrated by those trying to adjust and to buy "just a little more time."

For as surely as you've said it, the day will come when the Juniors will be as conscious to the looming political realities (national control) as the Majors currently are in this, and will also be "scared to death" as the world moves and changes beneath their very own feet.

As we each look to manage the productive fruits of our life's labors, you know this, and I know this: It is truly the Gold we want and shall be glad to have for life's security, not the meager paper leavings of a group of companies (enlightened Majors and unwitting Juniors) now in an epic struggle for their very survival. The grim political reality is simple -- no matter how fast an executive can run, burdened as he is with gold ore in the ground, he can't outrun the taxman.

Nor can he hide. His autonomy and desire for his company to profit by future Free Gold will be swept away by the power of the vote. (We all know the tendency of voters, don't we? Collectively they want something of value, but prefer others to foot the bill.) Where might this lead? We have National Forests, don't we? Logging can be permitted and controlled. We have ANWR? We are a nation blessed with abundant national resources, exceeded only by the number of rules that our Congress can bring to bear on any given situation, problem, or... Opportunity (in their eyes.)

Are we together in our thinking on this? I'm looking forward to the promise of our future conversation.

The time to step lively is now. Go for the Gold and ride the wave of the future.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
YGM
A "MUST READ" interview text......(More for the "What Next" Files)
http://www.infowars.com/palast_interview.htmlExcerpt.....

4/5/02 Alex Jones Show
Interview of Greg Palast

AJ: - one of the top presenters on BBC Newsnight, has broken just dozens of bombshell stories - from the election of 2000 to the IMF and World Bank, getting the secret documents of how they blow out economies, to the government prior knowledge of September 11th and Bush's connection to bin Laden and now a lot of other reporters from around the world followed suit in the footsteps of the real trail blazer, Greg Palast.

Greg, it's great to have you on the show this evening. It's good tohave you back in the states because you are after all a Yankee with the rest of us, aren't you?

GP: Yeah, very much a Yankee. Like I say, I've got that big giant, huge American flag in my office in Britain and it just drives the Limies just nuts.

By the way, Alex, since the last time we were on, I should tell you that you and I, you are a big hit in Argentina and all over Latin America in the Spanish speaking world. Our last interview was translated into Spanish and it hit like a bomb there. It's just been all over the papers and radio and television in Argentina, Venezuela, Spain, just explosive stuff and I've been getting a lot of interviews coming out of Latin America about the manipulation of the World Bank and the IMF and the interventions in their economy on behalf of Enron and other corporate big shots.

AJ: Well this shows that we can have an effect. And the reason that I think the stories that you have broken and that we just elaborated on here is my audience spread the word and emailed it out to everybody. That's the power of talk radio. That's why they hate uncontrolled talk radio. They either want phony left-wing or phony right-wing and then they just kind of divert our energies off into what I call steam valves. But let's go ahead and tackle that now because that is such a big story. A few months ago, Mr. Stiglitz, the former chief economist of the World Bank, goes public, you suddenly get a bunch of documents,
and those have again been confirmed to be accurate. Let's spend some time on that and then get into the election in 2000 and then get into government prior knowledge of September 11th. And, of course, your book, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy, now on the New York Times best seller list, thank God. I mean, getting into it, the sinister nature and how Enron ties into ties predatory fascistic capitalism, that's not free market. Hit 'em hard.

GP: Well, it's not free market. Look, I was a student at the
University of Chicago, in fact I was (garbled) in Chicago. And I was a student of Milton Friedman at the University of Chicago. And I was part of a little group called the Chicago Boys, and we actually, our group really pretty much took over the economy of Chile after the dictator Pinochet seized power in a military coup. The program was supposed to be free market, you know, like really open up the markets but, in fact, that's not what happened. What it became is a few operators seized the banks, seized the copper mines, seized the resources of the nation and it was basically a big smash and grab operation. And then we saw this plan spread across the Americas, into Britain and then it's banging up against American shores. So I saw the inside back on this scheme from the beginning. And then once I became an investigative reporter, I had the opportunity to not only get a bunch of documents that kind of walked out of the file cabinet at the World Bank. By the way, once again you are correct, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, and the IMF. I have their inside documents. They have never ever said that the documents are not authentic. They just - that they don't agree with my interpretation, or I don't have the full thing, or you know there's excuses and then they just try to slam me out.

A couple of weeks ago, the President of the World Bank, Jim Wolfensen, was supposed to meet me on - suppose to confront him on CNN. And he said, "if Greg Palast is on CNN, I won't be and I will even pull my taped interviews that I have previously done for CNN." And CNN then pulled me off the air. You know, it's amazing, after all I am a
reporter for BBC Nightly News - not exactly a fly-by-night operation. You know, they can't, you know what I mean, they can try to call me a kook. That's hard to do. I'm quite mainstream.

AJ: So, let's talk about these documents. And Stiglitz, the Chief Economist quit, just to recap for those who missed the interview back in March 4th, that again has gone out worldwide and has been called a bombshell just because we focused on the great reports you've done. But to just help give it some extra legs there, which is up to the listeners to do. Boil it down, the IMF/World Bank with private shareholders but with government license as the shell corporation, go in, pay off a dictator, pay off a group of corporations in the country to sign over water rights, pipeline rights, roads, the entire infrastructure to them if they (quote) don't pay back the loan but, wink, wink, billions are put in the Swiss bank account of the dictator.


They never pay back the loans. And then in the contract, the people are basically signed over as serfs, as chattel to the IMF/World Bank. And then they come in the next phase and say "all right you have got to go to a cashless society, you got to have national ID cards," and then they
raid the pension funds and totally blow out the economy.

I mean this is highway robbery. This is, this is sacking countries. You know the way you put it so well in your articles. And it's mass criminality on a global scale. Greg Palast, again from the BBC, one of the presenters on
Newsnight

GP: I'm an investigative reporter for Newsnight.

AJ: Absolutely, over there, again on British television, I like to watch the BBC right here on the local cable channel in Austin, and he writes for the Guardian Observer - bringing the folks up to speed on who we are interviewing. You break this story and how does Enron tie into this, as one of their front companies?

GP: Well, Enron is big in this story because their creation, Enron is basically a creation of Bush family politics and the World Bank and the IMF. They wouldn't exist without this... This company, remember, only began in 1986. They only came into existence because of the deregulation of markets in America, beginning in Texas and California,
when George W. Bush was governor of Texas. Poppy Bush, as his last act, one of his last acts in office was to pass a deregulation of utility and electricity markets in America at the federal level. And this led to this, not to free markets, but to, in fact, the creation of super companies, about six giant super companies, big supporters of his, Enron the number one political contributor to the Bush family campaign. Number three in contribution levels is Southern Company. They were one of the early power players - really dangerous characters to be very honest. And mainly their agenda was pushed through the World Bank and IMF.

Now, look, it may be, I'm still waiting to hear from Wolfensen, the President of the World Bank, that he really believes in this stuff. It looks like on paper what they are doing is planning financial coup d'etats of various nations.

AJ: Yeah, they go in and set up a fall, like in 1929, blow out the economy and have the dominoes set to fall off the table into their bag
as they run out the door and take their masks off and jump into the
get-away car.

GP: Right, so that was like - you take a country like Argentina. Enron. George W. Bush called, when he was an oil man in 1988, called up the public works minister of Argentina. Under pressure from the World Bank, they are privatizing all the nations infrastructure and assets
like the pipelines, the gas pipelines. George W. called the public works minister and said, "My daddy's been elected President of the United States and he would really appreciate if you would give this pipeline to Enron." Which is interesting because George W. said he didn't get to know Ken Lay, the CEO of Enron, until 1994. This was six years earlier. The public works minister tells me, on camera, that this
deal, he remembers the deal, even if our president doesn't, because the deal he felt was clearly, it was part of a corrupt offer to him. If he went along with a deal which basically would give away the natural gas of Argentina for one-fifth its price, of its value, world market price, that he would end up with money in his Swiss bank account.

AJ: So what happens here is - they come in, do backroom deals, government owns the assets and they just hand it over under the so-called free market term privatization to globalist companies.

GP: Right, it's really free market but it's not what I'm talking about free market, we are talking for example, Enron also seized the water company of Buenos Aires. But once they seized the water company, another company, a state beneficiary, a French operator, Vivendi, which
is a French company, and Suez, two big giant French operators, moved in and seized assets, especially Argentina water assets. Now these are not
free market companies, I mean you don't have free market water. These are just private companies that seized the water systems and raised prices as much as 400%. Again, under orders from the World Bank to sell off these systems. They fire 40% of the workers. The water pipes break. The water is contaminated. And the prices are up. Then the
World Bank writes a little report that says, "Gee, it seems we are having trouble getting water to poor people." Well, of course, you raise the price of water 400% and then contaminate it. It's kind of hard to get water to poor people.

AJ: And now, I see the Chicago Tribune last year, the government has handed over the Great Lakes to the regulatory control of the IMF, International Monetary Fund. So, and you raised this in the last interview, these predators have been feeding on third world countries but now they are doing it to a great extent here in the United States.

Hipplebeck
From a struggling hiker.
I thought that yesterdays gold market was due to the defense of the dollar, but now I'm thinking -duh- the low inflation numbers (cpi) were leaked out.
Also. I have no doubts that the last week or so action in the stock market is directly related to April 15 tax deadline. It is probably common knowledge, but I am just figureing things out.
Am I stating the obvious? I'm on the trail. but it is foggy.
Chrusos
Competition
$$$$$$314.17.00$$$$$$$

After feeding every posssible scenario and relationship my Cray computer has devised an infallible algorithm to calculate the closing price of the nearest gold future

start with equilibrium price a modest $1200 subtract x add y

"x" a factor derived by (multiplying 8 bullion banks short sales in tons, 50 central bank loans in tons (don't forget the one ton swapped from the central banks of Rumania, The Canary Islands and Mali), divide by the gold lease rate multiply by the coefficient of the integrity of the defendants in the Reg Howe case, multiply by number the members of Congress excluding Rep Paul who cant smell smoke or fire, increase further by the square of the Barrick's share price and 0,9 times the square of Anglogold, increase the product by the number of years Clinton Rubin Summers and Greenspan were in power and the number of subsequent downward revisions in total jobs in the DOL statistics

"y" a factor derived by the total number of GATA supporters divided by those with no sense of humor and object to the Bill Murphy Hannibal Cannibal and Zulu enveloping horn jargon, add the Dow price divided by the share prices of Newmont, Goldfields, Harmony multiplied by the number of years and complete months Japanese politicians have dithered divided by their 0.0001% interest rate, increase the result by the derivative book of JPM/Chase and the off balance sheet liabilities of the GSE's divided by $trillion,

Voila � oh lastly, divide by the number you first thought of.

PS I have subtly altered one parameter so no one can beat me to the maple!

Cavan Man
Lots of refining capacity there.....
"UNITED STATES officials have met with a broad spectrum of Venezuelans over several months," press secretary Ari Fleischer said of diplomats� efforts. "These have included business association representatives, to include the chamber of commerce president, interim President [Pedro] Carmona as well as pro-Chavez legislators."
"Our message has been consistent: The political situation in Venezuela is one for the Venezuelans to resolve peacefully, democratically and constitutionally, which I said on Friday. We explicitly told opposition leaders the United States would not support a coup," he said, responding to question following a report in the New York Times that disclosed details of meetings.
One unidentified senior official quoted by the Times insisted the Venezuelans use constitutional means to remove Chavez while a Defense Department official said the message was less categorical, saying U.S. officials sent "informal, subtle signals" that the Bush administration did not like Chavez.
Fleischer said he did not know of even an implicit suggestion that a coup be attempted.

PENTAGON DENIAL
Asked if the U.S. military gave logistical or intelligence support for the failed coup, Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clarke said she was "not aware of that."



"I can say emphatically that we had somebody ... who met recently with the chief of staff and made it very, very clear that the United States intent was to support democracy, human rights � that we in no way would support any coups or unconstitutional activity," Clarke told a news conference Tuesday.
She said the message was delivered by Roger Pardo-Maurer, assistant defense secretary for the hemisphere, in a meeting with Venezuelan Gen. Lucas Rincon. She said she didn't know the purpose of the meeting or how the subject of coups came up.

EMBARRASSMENT FOR BUSH
President Bush, who considers himself a champion of democracy and moral clarity in foreign relations, has been embarrassed by his administration's quick embrace of the Carmona presidency, which lasted two days before Chavez returned to power.
"We're encouraged by President Chavez's calls for national reflection," State Department spokesman Phil Reeker said Monday. "And we urge all Venezuelans to take advantage of this opportunity to promote national reconciliation and a genuine democratic dialogue."
Chavez appeared to have been driven from power Friday by military officers following violent street demonstrations against his rule, only to be reinstated Sunday after large protests by his supporters.
On Monday, he called on Venezuelans "to reunite, to reflect" and said he would begin talks with opposition leaders Tuesday.
The United States long has been at odds with Chavez, particularly because of his friendly relations with Cuba, Iraq, Libya and Iran.

A young boy walks in front of the metal grate shopfront in Caracas on Tuesday. The spraypainted message says "I was looted."



OUT OF STEP
Despite the U.S. insistence that nations in the Western Hemisphere follow democratic procedures, the Bush administration did not protest when Chavez appeared to be forced from office.
While Latin American leaders were condemning the coup, the State Department said Chavez was to blame for his fate. A spokesman charged that Chavez authorized his followers to open fire on demonstrators, leaving more than a dozen dead and hundreds wounded.
After Chavez was reinstated, the administration went along with an Organization of American States resolution that condemned "the alteration of constitutional order in Venezuela."



On Monday, both Chavez and the U.S. government seemed to try to discourage speculation about any U.S. role in the coup. When a reporter in Caracas asked Chavez whether the United States may have been involved, he responded: "The root is here."
He spoke well of the United States, saying he saluted the U.S. government with "love and affection."
Chavez also vowed that oil would continue to flow to the United States � Venezuela is its third largest supplier � as well as to Cuba.
State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said the Friday statement criticizing Chavez was based "on what appeared to be the facts at the time."
He said there are "lots of rumors and lots of conflicting reports" coming from Venezuela.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.


jalljatiri
MAPLE
Ok. I want to close at 450 as I am starting to work the gold placer. But for now $$$$$299.4$$$$$ is not so bad.
Tommy P
a great read folks, cheers!
Beowulf
$$$$$299.70$$$$$
I'm going to guess the above because I think they will try to keep the price under $300.00 to prove a point they can still control the price.

Beowulf
CoBra(too)
Pa(u)per-Dollars ?
http://m1.mny.co.za/mgag02.nsf/Current/85256B99004FDEF642256B9D00310B07?OpenDocumentA medium of exchange, which was introduced at Bretton Woods in 1944 as an international gold backed, gold redeemable and accepted currency until 1971, when Nixon defaulted the $ internationally. In the footsteps of FDR, who has done the same thing domestically and unconstitutionally in 1934.

These are the facts. And since then the US controlled IMF, together with the (unconstitutional)Fed have usurped the global markets by introducing a unit of last resort 'lending' - SDR - while the global currencies were set to freely float against each other- ideally according to their underlying economical potential. A concept, which left the US of A and its $, perceived as the savior of the western civilzation as the hegemonial reserve currency. A seignorage, which has deteriorated into a global taxation of all and every producing country - and, yes enslaving its own citizenry along with the rest of the world.

Re: link -

... Rhona O'Connell was T. Hoare's gold analyst for many years - she also analysed gold miners.
Even if she now joined WGC, an institution I've never really credited for being pro gold - as our Belgian and Ari (great to see you back, Sir!) are true and blue gold advocates.
As I'm probably too timid to follow the footsteps of giants all the way - being aware of the mounting problems of a paper monetized world, sucking the life-blood from producers of real and tangible assets - I'm probably beyond aid.
Still, being a citizen of the euro 12, which only may be the next best (or is it worst?) paper, I've gambled along and in the process almost doubled my physical. Not something I would really want to recommend now, so I just may have been lucky.

Far from nimble, nor a great trader ... just beyond reclamation - I do see the the light at the end of the tunnel - gold as the ultimate asset to preserve your wealth, health and sanity ...

Regards and sorry for venting - cb2
Gandalf the White
With your permission Sir Chrusos !
Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 73552)

Base Z, subtract x, add y, and ROUND to nearest tenth = Competition Entry !!
===
PPS: The Hobbits LOVED the explaination of items x and y !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GC2M Settlement Contest ! == LOTS of open slots !! <;-)GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540

$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456

$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392

$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451

$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490

$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426

$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
=====
<;-)

Belgian
@ Aristoteles and many other advocates, invited to share these thoughts
An old question of mine, here at the forum was : What happens when *FREE* Gold revaluates into the thousands of US$ or/and � ? Not one single answer. Couldn't give one myself at that time. Just for the simple reason that I didn't understood what was ment by *Free Gold*. And so what...with POG at 850$ (x25), nothing special happened either. Now I'm talking / reasoning as a goldbug and minelover.

Your question : Do goldminers (majors) or WGC and alumni, suspect Free Gold (POG into the thousands) or a possibility to it ? My intuition says YES, they do ! But they have all different opinions on how this Free Gold will turn out for them and the related businesses. See the subtle differences between the attitudes of Harmony/Gold Fields faction and the Anglogold and Barrick faction ! Not that much about the hedging but more about their phylosophies (profiling).
The miners are divided into 4 completely different blocks : Africa - the Americas - Australia - Rest (China/Russia etc). Once Gold has been set free, these different blocks will fall under a completely different avalanche of laws and regulations ! And what will happen to an American miner having assets in Africa or Australia ? You certainly guess the degree of complications.

Another (subtle) indication for the possible birth of Free Gold. China's publication of the increasing state owned Gold reserves + massive exploration efforts within China for underground Gold to be exploited under state control ! Not for export !!! The silence around the Japanese Jipangu initiative and Harmony flying Tola bars into China !

Imagine POG exploding from 300$ to 3.000$ !? What will happen to all these different mines in different regions and with all these diverging profiles ? The WA agreement was a first mouse step to international regulation on a more or less voluntary basis. What regulation(s) will come next ? EMU mentioned again the possibility of oil for euro, though not urgent.
And indeed, once POO can reach and hold above 30$, a lot of freeing regulations will pop up at once. But the taxman will always be there to collect the bulk of profits as compensation for whatever will sound convenient (greentax).

It is the dramatic changes that Free Gold (thousands per ounce) will bring with it that is a guarantee for uncertain and risky outcomes for this mining industry in particular and certainly in sharp contrast with the savety of Physical Gold in Possession. Here also might be a difference between Euroland and the US ?

There is some analogy with oil companies. We cannot afford them to become profitless !!! But we must avoid that their cartel can dominate the POO AS TO ENDANGER OUR PROSPERITY.
Once goldminers will upgrade from pure commodity diggers to additional wealth producers...their status will / must drastically be altered. Free Gold oblige as well as noblesse does.

The possible trap for any goldbug (minelover) lies him in the surprise attack of Free Gold ! A 1933 /1971 sort of replay. A London Gold Pool varietas.

What will happen with the 80.000 tonnes of aboveground Gold in jewelry when POG goes into the thousands ? And how will the 30.000 tonnes official + 25.000 tonnes private Gold react when Free Gold is suddenly installed ?
Will we need another 2.500 tonnes of fresh mined Gold for trading the Physical Free ?

Sir, our (difficult) job is to decode who is suspecting the Free Gold coming (not when). The unbelievable fact that the majors stubbornly don't want to cartelize or embark on a massive promotion campaign for Gold is a strong indication to me that they do suspect Free Gold is possible. How easy it is to show the world how Japanese housewifes are loading kilograms of Physical as protection !!!
How many different currencies can be offered Gold as an alternative against dollar hegemony ? No, it doesn't happen because Gold is in collusion with the US$ ! This to postpone the inevitability of the coming Free Gold !

Does the average US citizen has enough savings for an orderly accumulation of Physical as a store of wealth and this in proportion to the total amount of dollars floating around ? Reflect on the consequences of your answer to this one. Japanese and Eurolanders have a lot of savings and Gold can be exchanged in each and every small country village.

Yes Sir, the Invisable Hand and the evolving transition is indeed cause for irrational behavior of the goldmine community that remains paralysed. High grade ores can be mined abundently, because POG into the thousands will make extremely low ore grades as profitable (after tax) as any other rich veins. To be compared with future alternative (more costly) resources for crude oil. A major concern for OPEC's pricing policies. And one day this globe will promote the remaining oil reserves as of international interest. And peace will reign in the ME ! Sorry for dreaming a bit in advance.

As long as miners keep on acting against Free Gold...I remain convinced it is in the make. As soon as miners will start promoting Gold...I suspect Free Gold will never be imposed by its architects and we are left to do the job on our own. But therefore we must have evidence that the 30.000 tonnes are indeed melting away around women's necks or wrists ! And that isn't going to happen. Central banks stand ready to sell PAPER should the price of Gold rise prematurely before the day of Freedom. In the mean time Duisenberg (and the French) still and always will consider Gold as an important reserve up until it becomes VERY IMPORTANT INDEED ! Thanks Ari.
Rock
Tommy P good read!
Hey Tommy P that article just coincides with what the Wall Street Pimps and trolls have been saying all along as well. They conviently ignore those things that may damage their own interest and the part that gets me is that they think we're stupid enough to belive them. I mean hasn't the sheeple learned yet not to believe what the media and big wig brokers are spewing out of their lying lips? Had I lost as much money as some have in the market I sure would be doing more research and less listening to the media.

Perfect case and point, Lou Dobbs on CNN tonight was saying after todays stock spike we must be back in a bull market. Come on big Lou, you can't preach to this choir, so many decent individuals lost the shirts off their backs listening to that kind of hype and lies, I only hope they have learned.

Rock
Cavan Man
Series B preferred and all common "worthless"
Ad For Hard AssetsAnchor Glass Files for Bankruptcy
Tue Apr 16, 4:57 PM ET

TAMPA, Fla. - Anchor Glass Container Corp., the nation's third-largest manufacturer of glass beverage containers, has filed for bankruptcy protection.


The reorganization plan was filed Monday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Middle District of Florida, Tampa Division, which must approve any plan.

Under a deal worked out with its creditors in a so-called "pre-packaged" bankruptcy, the Tampa-based company will erase about $50 million of debt.

"The action allows Anchor Glass to re-capitalize and provides us with a more stable financial base for the future," president and chief operating officer Richard M. Deneau said in a statement.

Anchor Glass said reorganization was partially necessary because its Canadian parent company, Consumers Packaging, Inc., defaulted on $75 million in bonds last year.

Anchor also blamed an overleveraged balance sheet, constant short-term liquidity complaints and an underfunded pension, which will require about $177 million over the next four years.

Under terms of the reorganization, Anchor has signed agreements with bondholders, who will receive $50 million in cash, and a majority of holders of its Series A preferred stock, who will receive cash payments of $22.5 million.

All Series B preferred stock and common stock will be cancelled, meaning it is worthless.

Anchor Glass had 2001 revenues of $702 million. It employs 2,900 at 12 U.S. locations.


CoBra(too)
@ Belgian - Off Topic ... Mostly
I truly respect and admire your thoughts - though I have to admit I'm lost - ... as a fellow and small participant in the EU - BTW, compromised by your late-(st) Premier, thanks to our choice to turn more conservative - we've been purged as the underdogs (Not necessarily being a Haider fan!).

As Italy went the same way with Berlusconi the uproar was distinctly ... more subdued.

Well, I guess, that's the fate of the "equal" small - being officially equal until quenched ... Maybe, the Republique of Belgique will still see the light, as your neighbouring Wim Kock feels the plight and resigns, before the atrocities in Bosnia come to light.

Sorry, all of the above is beside the point - though we tend to forget "re'al"-istic history - as good old austrian Empire didn't only divide and reigned - though - tu felix Austria nube!

Is the common currency the only potential unity the europeans may ever achieve - if so, I'm all for it.

... and still prefer gold - bless you cb2
Mr Gresham
Views of world today...
http://www.thismodernworld.com/such as:

"Overlapping realities


By Israeli novelist Amos Oz, a founder of the Peace Now movement:


Two Palestinian-Israeli wars have erupted in this region. One is the Palestinian nation's war for its freedom from occupation and for its right to independent statehood. Any decent person ought to support this cause. The second war is waged by fanatical Islam, from Iran to Gaza and from Lebanon to Ramallah, to destroy Israel and drive the Jews out of their land. Any decent person ought to abhor this cause.


Yasser Arafat and his men are running both wars simultaneously, pretending they are one. The suicide killers evidently make no distinction. Much of the worldwide bafflement about the Middle East, much of the confusion among the Israelis themselves, stem from the overlap between these two wars.


Decent peace seekers, in Israel and elsewhere, are often drawn into simplistic positions. They either defend Israel's continued occupation of the West Bank and Gaza by claiming that Israel has been targeted by Muslim holy war ever since its foundation in 1948, or else they vilify Israel on the grounds that nothing but the occupation prevents a just and lasting peace.


One simplistic argument allows Palestinians to kill all Israelis on the basis of their natural right to resist occupation. An equally simplistic counter-argument allows Israelis to oppress all Palestinians because an all-out Islamic jihad has been launched against them. "

G: How do we get out of these closely-wound traps?


Black Blade
U.S. March Housing Starts Decline 7.8% to 1.646 Million Rate
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APLwZTRMlVS5TLiBN
Snippit:

Washington, April 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. housing starts fell in March after rising a month earlier to the highest level in more than three years, government figures showed.


Black Blade: Real estate bubble popping?
sector
Another Very Timely, On Target Piece by Marshall Aeurbach
http://www.prudentbear.comInternational Perspective, by Marshall Auerback

Moral Hazard Psychology Expands

April 16, 2002

Two weeks ago we noted that the presumptively conservative president of the Bundesbank, Ernst Welteke, proposed that the German central bank sell a portion of its gold reserve and invest the proceeds in European equities. This trial balloon came on top of an article in which the US Federal Reserve pondered the use of "unconventional" measures, including the purchase of equities, to boost the economy.� We found both these statements to be most bizarre. But perhaps even more extraordinary was the more recent matter-of-fact acknowledgement by European Central Bank President, Wim Duisenberg that central banks buy equities all the time and that there was nothing "unusual" at all about the practice.

Duisenberg is probably correct in saying some central banks have already taken equity positions in their portfolios. After all, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority took on the Western speculative community by openly buying stocks in 1997. After the blow-up of Long Term Capital, there was speculation that the Italian central bank had taken huge losses stemming from a $100m investment in the fund. But even if Wim is factually correct, his blas� dismissal of the Welteke statement, and the sheer nonchalance of his defense at this time tells us something which is new. After all, whenever the question of intervention in equity markets had been raised before, the questions raised were usually met with vigorous denials (particularly from Alan Greenspan). In our view, these more recent statements, (which ring more credibly than earlier Fed denials), are consistent with an attempt to mainstream the idea of equity market holdings by central banks, to make the unconventional seem more conventional.

The question is why? Perhaps the European central banks have come to similar conclusions that their Fed counterparts seem to have reached last January: namely, that there would be a need to have massive coordinated intervention in the US equity market once/if the remaining credit and dollar bubbles break.� Notwithstanding the relaxed tone in Duisenberg's comments, the breach with decades of central banking practice implies that the central banking community envisages serious problems ahead. Otherwise, there is no readily explainable reason for the ECB President to bail out or even back Welteke's stance. The final moral hazard card has, as we judged earlier with the January minutes and the FT article, now been engaged.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Mr. Weltke is clearly a man under duress from superiors concerned about the safety of Germany's gold reserves. His every word and move suggests some kind of guilt with respect to gold.

By watching things "Outside the box" we may gain a modicum of warning when the upward gold move(s) arrive. But one can never pick the "right" moment so why not move now, relax and have a Heinekin.
Horatio
Barrick

With labor costs falling in Argentina cheap labor should be very abundant .Argentina currency crisis will spill over into competing DEVALUATIONS making cost of mining GOLD in the area fall just like S.Africa. In one fell swoop the whole area suddenly becomes profitable for mining.It woulden't surprise me if cash cost went down to 120.00 /oz.
Barricks hedges give it 365.00/oz for 2002 ,and low labor costs will pile on the profits,this will help finance the projects that have even lower cash costs.


Barrick dusts off $1.6bn projects

By: Stewart Bailey
Posted: 2002/04/16 Tue 08:00 | � Miningweb 1997-2002
MELBOURNE � Barrick Gold, the world's number two gold producer, has
responded to the persistent strength in the gold market this year by
announcing it will resuscitate its Pascua Lama and Valadero projects in
South America. The move to breathe life into the mega-projects, which was
shelved last year, should go a long way to addressing concerns over how the
group will effect the next phase in its growth strategy and how it will spend
its $700 million cash pile.

Barrick's $1 billion Pascua project and the adjacent $600 million Valadero
project, inherited from Homestake Mining, were both shelved last year as
bullion treaded water below $275 an ounce. The group used the declining
gold price to justify its decision to mothball the projects' development,
coming in for enormous flak from market analysts, given that the synergies
between the two projects had been used as a selling point for the Homestake
transaction.

Amid the storm of criticism, Barrick said it would wait for improving market
conditions before deciding to go ahead with what it has now labelled the
Valadero District. "We put them on hold as gold was trading lower over time,"
Barrick chief executive Randal Oliphant said today. "The gold price was not
going anywhere and, rather than invest on the expectation of better
conditions, we [waited] for them," said Oliphant. True to his word, Oliphant
said the company had decided to revisit Valadero and Pascua.

"We're taking a fresh look at our largest development project, the Pascua
Lama � Valadero District, now unified as a result of the Homestake merger
into a single 25 million ounce district; the largest undeveloped gold district in
the world," said Oliphant.

Initial studies on the individual mines by Barrick and Homestake put the
development costs of Pascua at $1 billion and Valadero at $600 million.
Oliphant said "fiscal difficulties" in Argentina and the resultant devaluation in
the peso would play into Barrick's hands.

"It will make the investment more attractive. In the long term we see this
district as capable of producing 1.5 million ounces annually at $125 million
an ounce," he said. In previous studies on the viability of the mines, Barrick
had used a $300/oz gold price, while Homestake used a gold price of
$275/oz.

Broker's view

In the most recent HSBC Gold Book, US-based gold analyst Victor Flores
says the joint development of Pascua and Valadero is the main growth driver
for Barrick, post the Homestake acquisition.

"Clearly, the best opportunity for value creation lies high in the Andes, on the
border between Chile and Argentina. Barrick has struggled to make a viable
project out of Pascua in the current gold environment, while Homestake has
advanced Veladero but has not yet made a production decision. Since the
numbers on Veladero are not yet final it is difficult to say whether the two
projects can be combined into a single, financially robust mine, but this is
where the opportunity to unlock value truly rests," says Flores.

With low levels of debt and $700 million in cash, some murmurs from
investors have begun surfacing, calling for Barrick to spread some of its cash
to shareholders. Proceeding with Pascua-Valadero could put any plans of
becoming a dividend play on ice, given the weighty capital commitments the
project would require.

HSBC gives this assessment of the future of the company: "[T]he company
will need this cash if conditions change sufficiently to justify construction at
Pascua-Veladero. Barrick's future is now intimately tied to events in that
region, and it will be events in the Andes that determine whether the market
once again falls in love with the company," says Flores.
Black Blade
Natural Gas Supply Not Enough
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=141322 Conventional Natural Gas Supplies Not Enough To Meet Growing N. American Demand

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Apr. 16 -- Conventional natural gas supplies will not be enough to meet the North American market's demand for gas over the next decade. In the coming years, demand will have to be met through all industry players working together to expand North America's gas network as well as exploring for gas in various frontier areas of the US and Canada.

Natural gas drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico doubled during 1995-2001 and has come off strongly during the first part of this year, Ziff added. Meanwhile, although onshore gas drilling levels in the Lower 48 have grown by 130% over the last 7 years, it has fallen off sharply during the first part of 2002, Ziff noted.

Natural gas consumption

Natural gas consumption in the US and Canada will grow to 28.5 tcf by 2010, slightly less that a 2% compounded growth average, said Doug Whisenaut, president, Williams Gas Pipelines Group. "Over half of this increase in gas consumption is for power generation peaks, which is expected to grow 5%/year over the same period. While power generation itself is expected to grow by slightly less than 2%/year over the decade, almost two thirds of that growth is expected to be gas-fired," he said.

As a result, Whisenaut noted, gas-fired power generation will represent 21% of total generation in the US. "Since the growth of US gas-fired generation capacity is to serve summer cooling demand, we forecast a smaller growth in the annual gas consumption for power generation. Clearly pipelines need to be able to handle the demand sweeps of power generation."

Natural gas supply

Significant increases in production will be required to meet growing gas demand in the US and Canada, most panelists concurred.

At least one panelist, meanwhile, felt that gas supplies could better meet increasing demand through the expansion of existing and construction of new storage facilities. "With the amount of load that [industry is] bringing on in terms of electric generation as well as the growth in the [local distribution company] market, we've got to bring new storage resources on," said Thomas O'Connor, senior vice-president, marketing and capacity management, Duke Energy Gas Transmission, a unit of Duke Energy Corp., Charlotte, NC.

Infrastructure development

One of the biggest challenges facing the pipeline industry, specifically, Wuori said, is infrastructure development policies in US and Canadian frontier areas. "All over North America�particularly onshore�there are issues whenever new construction is contemplated," he said. "There is growing North American demand and supply from the frontiers, but the connection of those becomes the big challenge, because there is always someone who has an issue.

The issues of NIMBY, or "Not in my backyard,"�or the less-familiar BANANA, or "Build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone,"�remain the mantras for those taking issue with new construction, Wuori said.


Black Blade: I could have written this article � I probably did over the last few years. It is quite true that we are probably setting ourselves up for a severe "Energy Crisis Part II". The demand for NG is increasing at a phenomenal rate while exploration and production is falling off. NG is more important as summer electricity demand grows and environmental regulations put more emphasis on cleaner burning fuels. The antiquated energy infrastructure is another valid point along with NIMBY. This fall and winter could very easily catch the NG industry flat-footed when supply may not be sufficient to meet demand. Production can't just start up by turning a valve. The resulting higher costs will stop any economic recovery cold.
Black Blade
Barrick? - A picture is worth a thousand words.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=NEM+GG+HGMCY+GOLD&k=c1&t=1y&s=abx&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l
From the graph one can see that mega-hedger Barrick (ABX) has been a very big disappointment for its shareholders. The reason is that the price is already discounted in the share price and therefore there is no upside potential in a rising POG environment. Also like Cambior, Ashanti, etc. - Barrick is exposed to margin risk should the POG rise above $345/oz. on existing hedges (forward sales). That defeats the purpose of holding Gold mining shares.

Meanwhile Gold mining companies that do not sell forward such as Newmont (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Harmony Gold (HGMCY), and Goldfields (GOLD) and (and several others) have left Barrick in the dust. The only people to profit from Barrick's performance are the corporate fat cats (Peter Munky and CEO Dandy Randy Oliphant - rhymes with elephant) who give themselves big bonuses every year. As it is mega hedgers Barrick and Placer Dome (PDG) have a pathetic performance record and have left a lot of dissapointed shareholders who look at other Gold producers and their shareholders who are enjoying fantastic gains.

In short, owning Barrick mining shares is a dead issue as the hedge price has already been figured into the share price and therefore no significant gain in a rising POG market (see graph).
Horatio
Barrick
Barrick says its not exposed to margin risk.The Valedero
district has enough gold to deliver into ALL of Barricks hedges at a cost of 120/00 per oz.I'll take that any day.
Don't let your hatred of hedgers blind you from making money.I never bought a share of Barrick,but when I inherited it from Homestake ,a non hedger I started to see possibilities in a company loaded with cash and no debt and guarantees of profitable price structure.I never liked hedgers but I'm not stupid when it comes to making money.
Horatio
Making money
It woulden't be the first time I bought a company that everybody hated and made a pile of money.Circuit City at .65 cents'sold at $54.00,toys r us at 60cents ..sold at 13.00(sold too soon)A & P bought at 5.00 when everybody said "why do you want that dog"'sold at 54.00....I bought that one at 5.00 a share and everybody said they have no future!
What they didn't realize was they had 11.00 a share cash in the bank and an OVER funded pension plan.I have made more money on "dogs"than people made chasing dot coms.
Black Blade
Horatio - Barrick

Make money" Hmmm...

OK. let's compare portfolios one year from today. I have GG, HGMCY, and GOLD.

BTW, did you see the chart? Also, I woule love to see what counterparty bank would assume "all" the risk in a short sale and give cash "Risk" free to Barrick. I find that unbelievable. Someone is not telling the whole story here.

- Black Blade
Gimli_
Contest
$$$$ 301.0 $$$$
Hoping we move above $300 and keep going....
YGM
Horatio...
Correct me if I'm wrong...But last time I looked Barrick had "FOUR YEARS" worth of it's production sold forward. So what if they get $350 0r even $400. from forward sales. If Gold is at $800. + a year from today, (which many astute Gold analysts believe possible) where does that put Barrick (read shareholders)Monk, Bush, Mulrooney made their money already. Just like Goldman Sucks and so many others who've sold the farm to foolish shareholders, Barrick paper holders and Gold Futures paper holders will suffer....IMNSHO!
Do you think Barrick can produce 4 yrs prod in 1 or that w/ gold at $800.00 we won't have major inflation in mining costs.....Barrick is a swear word to most who know how and with whom they've bedded....YGM.

PS: I hope you can maintain that confidence level 6 mo from now sir.
Horatio
Diversity
I'm not on an ego trip ,just trying to point out that there are different points of view that have value.
I hope you make lots of money ,we all share the view GOLD is under valued and even with different view points we can share in golds future. Its not a zero sum game for us.
Horatio
stock markets
I've traded stocks since 1960 and if there is one lesson I've learned .The conventional wisdom is WRONG and the market is PERVERSE.
YGM
Horatio...I for one totally respect your views and you!
Sorry if I came off venting....Obviously (or not so) as a former miner I just despise Monk and Barrick among others for the years of damage they had a hand in dealing to the rest of the industry participants and wish all buyers would boycott them even at the cost of losing a few bucks. BTW...here's a little commentary from Greg Palast on Bush/Barrick deals. Imagine how long Barrick would have the Nevada property if a Congressional committee
ever got going to investigate....YGM

Excerpt from interview previously posted today...

one of the Bush family corporations that they were
connected to, Barrick Gold Mining of Canada, did sue my paper over reports that they didn't really like. Not many people in America know that after Poppy Bush left the White House, he went to work for Canadian Gold Mining Corporation. A real group of characters that, believe me,
they don't want any one exposing what their operations are or that Bush has been helping them. So Daddy Bush went to work for these Canadian Gold Mining operation and one of the things, before he left office, Daddy Bush, his administration set up an expedited procedure for gold
mining companies to lay claims to gold mine properties. And his company, the company he ultimately went to, Barrick Gold Mining, through this special expedited procedure he set up, was able to lay claim to the largest gold mine in the world, which is in Nevada, with $10 billion worth of gold ore in it. And they paid $10,000 to the U.S. Treasury to make that claim.

AJ: So, $10,000 for $10 billion, that's another great return. And guaranteed that was basically grabbed from other people who probably already had claims on it. Amazing. Greg Palast, stay right there, we've got to break again. Long segment coming up. The website for our guest is gregpalast.com

End of Excerpt...
Horatio
Barrick
The more everybody hates barrick ,the more I like it.
I'm also a computer junkie and everybody I know that is really good at computers hated AOL and still does.
I can therefore forsee Barrick trading at 100 times earnings ,and everybody questioning thier earnings just like AOL.Remember the market is PERVERSE.You may not understand it,but its the way to bet.
Black Blade
Horatio - Go For It!

I think that you should do exactly what you think is right for yourself and yours. I suggest that you buy even more shares of Barrick. I think that you perhaps should take it further and use all available cash. If I were you I would even take out a hefty mortgage and use the proceeds to buy even more shares. You know that there are 125% mortgage loans available. I say go for it buddy. Back up the truck and scoop up them Barrick shares with both hands. Good Luck, Cheers!

- Black Blade
Horatio
This says it all
I have no mortgage,paid it off in 1988 from money I took out of the market.I have no debt,not even credit card debt.
My cars are paid for.My four children have been through college with no debt and I paid for two weddings cash. I will not be goaded .I retired at 55.Enough said....
JCTex
Horatio (04/16/02; 21:13:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 73578)
Horatio,
I hope you take huge, breath-taking profits from Barrick paper; and I hope that the day after you sell it, that it goes down to 2 reddish-colored pennies of very little value.

And I hope all this happens very soon.

Sierra Madre
Hello Horatio!

Well, you come across as one inordinately self-satisfied fellow. Good for you, that you have made so much money on stocks. Some people have a gift for that sort of thing. Some don't. Some people are not able to disregard principles when it comes to investments. Some people can do that. The ones that can't, are what form what is called "The Remnant".

I am proud to be one of The Remnant. But, you would not understand, not being one of The Remnant.

We have heard about your exploits in the stock market. As I say, "Good for you!" You might even be right about Barrick. Who knows, this is a perverse world. But, those who lurk and post at this Forum, are not part of the perverse world, and don't want to have anything to do with it.

We, The Remnant, have the whole world against us, or so it seems, at times. All the Principalities and Powers are against us. If they are triumphant - and they may triumph, but God forbid! - then both you and ourselves will be nothing but worms under their feet, to be crushed at will.

So, having had your say, go your way, and let us go ours in peace.

Sierra
Sierra Madre
Massive strikes in Italy....

The BBC reports that 13 million Italian workers, about half of the total work force, are on strike. Italy is paralyzed, nothing is moving.

Students are joining the strikers. The BBC shows big rallies with prominent displays of the Communist hammer and sickle on red flags. The "students" look like the worst scum, I must say. What a mess!

This is a classical Leninist procedure: A "Workers and Students Strike". Is Berlusconi on the ropes? And we thought "Communism is dead".

Thoughts: What will the impact on the Euro be? This is the kind of situation that can torpedo the Euro - Italy caving in to strikes abandons the rules for Euro membership, and the Euro falls apart(?) Just this situation has been forseen by those who have pointed out the weakness of the Euro construct.

Will there by a "flight to safety" in the dollar? Or will the flight to safety also impact gold?

A further question - surely silly, I mean who could seriously entertain the thought - is there possibly, maybe, some dirty work going on by the secret services of an unnamed country, to undermine the Euro?

Italy reminds me of De Gaulle and May'68. But, surely I am wrong.

Sierra
darkhorse
Sir Horatio
oh, please stop...my knees are getting tired from all the genuflecting (sp?), my back is killing me from all the bowing, and my ears are ringing from all the trumpets blowing your fanfares...

I really don't resent you or your position, but your style is a bit over-bearing and it comes across as not much more than bragging. I'm happy for ya, but give it a rest. You sound like a Barrick salesman!
YGM
Robert Service.......
The Yukon Balladeer...His fortune from pen w/ Gold in every creek nearby!Eldorado

I pitched my tent beneath a pine
Upon a grassy mound,
And all that summer worked my mine,
Yet never wealth I found;
Each night I dreamed of fortune dear,
of pokes of virgin gold:
Alas! what riches were so near,
The grass roots could have told.

So broke and burdened with despair,
Abandoning my "lay,"
Believing that no gold was there,
I upped and went away;
And then a Swede came to my mound;
With careless pick he struck,
And where I slept a fortune found,
For that's the way of Luck.

God save us all from sudden wealth
That makes the head to swell;
Champagne and women mined his health
And he went plumb to hell.
And me? To win my bread I drive
A heavy highway truck . . .
But he is dead and I'm alive,
- And that's the way of Luck.

Black Blade
Gold supply crisis looming � Gold Fields
http://m1.mny.co.za/mgag02.nsf/Current/85256B99004FDEF642256B9D00316E86?OpenDocument
Snippit:

MELBOURNE � Rapid consolidation of global gold production had diverted attention away from massive structural problems looming on the supply side of the gold industry, said Gold Fields chief executive Chris Thompson.

"Simply by buying assets, the major gold producers are camouflaging the fact that there is a shortage of reserves," said Thompson. "Existing gold reserves are simply being shifted from one pocket to another and it's really a case of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic." He said the top 10 gold producers had reserves of between 10,000 and 12,000 tons, which were "being burned up at an enormous rate". To highlight the dwindling production, Thompson said South African new mine production had peaked at 1,000 tons a year in 1970, fallen back to 428 tons in 2000 and dropped again to 393.5 tons last year. "It will probably go down again from here; in South Africa its almost all a question of declining grades," he said.

Thompson said the deficiencies on the supply side would become increasingly evident as he expected the recent spate of mergers among the world's top gold producers to slow to a trickle.



Black Blade: Just as discussed here on a number of occasions. Chris Thompson is quite correct. I saw this day coming when I sold my services to the Gold mining industry in Nevada.
Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTREMINDER -- TICK TOCK -- The end of the Contest is less than three days away and the entry deadline is HIGH NOON, Denver time on Thursday the 18th. FYI, the GC2M Settlement on Tuesday the 16th was $299.5
<;-)


GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540

$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456

$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392

$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451

$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490

$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 301.0 $$$$ Gimli_ (04/16/02; 20:43:05MT msg#: 73573

$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426

$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
=====
OK ALL -- The EARLY "Guesses" have outlined the range !! Be sure to enter your prognostication before someone takes your lucky guess. What is it that is said about holding your breath until one turns "BLUE"? Turn "GOLDEN" soon.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
MORE ******** Argentinean "Tears" *********
Did everyone see what happened in Argentina yesterday on the Argentina Stock Market ?
MerVal Apr 16 362.340 -25.560 -6.58%
<;-(
Spartacus
Equities
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_568182.html?menu=business.economy
The outlook for world equities has deteriorated in the past month, according to the April edition of the Merrill Lynch Fund Managers' survey.

"The outlook for world equities has taken a turn for the worse," said David Bowers, Merrill Lynch Chief Global Investment Strategist.

"Institutional investors are heavily invested, but the markets are not responding," added Bowers. "They find themselves uncomfortably long and it doesn't feel good."

--------

Separately, the survey revealed a rotation of interest away from the US and global emerging markets and towards the euro zone.
Belgian
@ CBII @ Sector
Cobra : Ostenreich ist kein unterdog ! And we ALL have that Haider part (the evil one) in us ! Belgium made a grandioze mistake with hyper focussing and personal political mega profiling ! Minister Michel has been compensating for this with his (honest) efforts for peace and support to both parties in Israel. The Dutchbath story has a hypocritical and disgusting finale. Don't give it too much praise. But that's off topic.
Berlusconi (Italy) is embararassing Euroland. But if this kind of razmattaz should be at the origin of some euro pressure...I am (naively) confident that the *GOLDWEAPON* will be used in a disciplined way to surprise friend and foo !!! So much dollar-reserves waiting to find happyness in scarce Physical. Euroland never has to issue a warning against the dollarblock for euro attacks of any kind ! The euro/gold concept is a gigantic stick.

Sector : Central Banks and sharedealings / holdings !?
My two cents : Stockmarket indexes and the core of big stocks are not allowed to crash or must be prevented at any cost. CBs are the lenders of last resort ! And with soooooooo much confetti installed in those stock funds and their derivatives...the consequences of a sharp downturn would expose the mania in all its ugly nakedness. Masses of savings down the drain � la Argentina and THE FATAL consumer panic and economic DEBT CRASH ! Went to an investor's congress yesterday and smelled exactly that enormous hidden fear ! It is when "they" start talking / promoting / advizing about *GOLD*, that you may be confident that all is OK ! So never, never say one word about the vitues of Gold. Gold does NOT add anything to the financial mania !

It is the ABSOLUTE SILENCE AND DENIAL about Gold that is
worrisome. And talking about Gold is the most sensitive subject to be exposed with tonnes of subtility. Because it still is so very recognizable for all great and small.
Mr Gresham
Ever hear of Gen. Smedley Butler?
http://www.thismodernworld.com/weblog/archive/2002_04_07_bloggera.html#75287105...excerpt from a 1933 speech by Marine General Smedley Butler:


War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses. . . .


There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its "finger men" to point out enemies, its "muscle men" to destroy enemies, its "brain men" to plan war preparations, and a "Big Boss" Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism.


It may seem odd for me, a military man to adopt such a comparison. Truthfulness compels me to. I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.


I suspected I was just part of a racket at the time. Now I am sure of it. Like all the members of the military profession, I never had a thought of my own until I left the service. My mental faculties remained in suspended animation while I obeyed the orders of higher-ups. This is typical with everyone in the military service.


I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefits of Wall Street. The record of racketeering is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-1912 (where have I heard that name before?). I brought light to the Dominican Republic for American sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to it that Standard Oil went its way unmolested.


During those years, I had, as the boys in the back room would say, a swell racket. Looking back on it, I feel that I could have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.


Mr Gresham
Smedley Butler, Marine Corps Legend
http://www.grunts.net/legends/butler.htmlCombat heroism, Medals of Honor. Does that get his words listened to? Bwa-ha-ha-ha!

American sheeple, with your conceit of liberties. Geographic isolation and abundant resources gave you what little slack you peasants have had, temporarily, and the rest is the rich and powerful doing unto others what they've done for millennia everywhere. Just too depressing a comedown in your own eyes to let yourselves see it -- understandable, but still -- you could have had a Republic. Just a little bit farther might have done it...
ax
P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

Despite how well or how poorly we perceive the various
gold mining companies as doing based on their relative
hedging or non hedging policies, it is still valuable to
actually look at the numbers.

This data from 4-10-02 is still close to current values
and is reposted here.


ax (04/10/02; 22:54:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 73129)

P/E RATIOS & DIVIDEND YIELDS ON MAJOR GOLD STOCKS

With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and
dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )

STOCK DATE EXCHANGE P/E DIVIDEND %YIELD

1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE- P/E 22.22 DIV 3.5

2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE- P/E 98.83 DIV 1.2

3. Gold Fields 4-10-02JSE- P/E 44.25 DIV 1.18

4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE- P/E 33.78 DIV 1.16

5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE-P/E Earn Loss DIV .40

6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE-P/E Earn Loss DIV .80
Black Blade
******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines?"

We can learn the fate of all currencies that are based on confidence in a system of "faith and credit". That is the ultimate fate of all currencies is that they eventually fail. Why has Gold survived as a form of wealth for at least 9,000 years beginning with the ancient Thracians until now? Gold survives because Gold requires no faith. Gold has intrinsic value and is not dependent on any government. It is the ultimate currency of sovereign beings. History gives us an almost endless list of failed currencies from ancient China, to the Weimar Republic, and more recently Argentina.

The Argentine Example

Recently the Argentine Peso collapsed and now has lost about two-thirds its value. In fact to go shopping (if you are fortunate to have any script) you can pay in pesos, lecops (another government script), patacones (One year Argentine government bonds) various tickets, vouchers, other forms of monopoly money (lecors, quebrachos, cecacors, bocanfor, bocades, bosos, independencias, federales, petroms and huarpes), and of course in US Dollars. If the Argentine people had only a third of their savings in Gold, they would have broke even. Instead most lost at least 66% of their saving (at a minimum).

Argentines were already getting used to dealing with a dizzying array of new "quasi-currencies", as many of the nation's cash-strapped provinces started printing their own bills. So much for the theory of "faith and credit" applied to fiat currency. Argentines are allowed to use these paper IOUs (patacones) to pay provincial taxes. But to prevent them from quickly falling below face value and incurring the wrath of the people, the authorities required that everyone from petrol station proprietors to McDonald's accept them.

Barter clubs are springing up across the nation as people trade goods and services for "creditos". Meanwhile with all the influx of these "quasi-currencies" (probably as much as 5 billion pesos worth) along with about 12 billion pesos in circulation, the accumulated debt of Argentina is growing at a staggering rate. Argentina's currency crisis is too far gone to save and the Argentine economy truly is in a "Death Spiral". The truth is that Argentina is bankrupt. Its institutions are dysfunctional, its government disreputable, its social structure is failing. For Argentina it's "Game Over".

Like sheep, dishonest International bankers and politicians fleeced the Argentine people of their wealth. The bankers have absconded with the countries wealth with the help of the corrupt politicians. The Argentines wealth was destroyed while the banks were closed thus preventing them from withdrawing funds while the Argentine Peso was devalued. We have seen this scenario play out time and again.

A Scottish/French Example

John Law (1671-1729) was a Scottish economist, gambler, banker, murderer, royal advisor, and exile. Exiled in Europe because of a duel, Law ingratiated himself into the French court through patronage and friendship of the Regent, the Duke of Orleans. The state of French finances after Louis XIV's death in 1715 was so dismal that the Duke turned to Law for assistance. Law proposed the establishment of a state-chartered bank with the power to issue unbacked paper currency, the Banque G�n�rale, which was established in 1716. Around the same time, Law also established the Mississippi Company, an enterprise designed to develop the then-French colony of Louisiana in North America. French merchants were required by law to accept these "notes" as payment under threat of death. Another great transfer of wealth had begun. Gold and Silver flowed to the bankers and paper flowed to the people.

Law's note-issuing bank was a spectacular success - until it collapsed after a bank run in 1720, plunging France and Europe into a severe economic crisis, which had an important role in setting the stage for the later French Revolution. Indeed, the experience of Law's banking schemes on France were so traumatic that, until recently, the term "banque" was largely eschewed by French banks in order to avoid stoking up memories of Law's unfortunate institution (the common substitute term was "credit", as in "Credit Lyonnais", "Credit Agricole", "Credit Foncier", etc.).

An American Example

In 1933, a dishonest thief in presidential clothing did the exact same thing in the United States. He confiscated the Gold and issued an executive order making private ownership illegal. Then as banks closed up this thief had the value of the US Peso (also known as the dollar) was devalued in 1934 from $35.00/oz. to $20.67/oz. by nearly as much as 41% by changing the rate of exchange of dollars to Gold. Who was this thief? His name was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

As the Spanish philosopher George Santayana (1863-1952) said: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." In a similar vein, Americans are doomed to repeat the same mistakes. A great transfer of wealth is under way as bankers create credit and the people go into debt. They trade their sweat and blood for easy credit in order to live large. When that day comes to pay the piper, all that they have will belong to those to whom they are indebted. The great wealth robbery will make criminals like Franklin Delano Roosevelt and John Law mere footnotes in history.

A Current Japanese Example

Japanese have an approaching date with disaster. The Yen has fallen in value as the insolvent Japanese banking system careens into a "Death Spiral" of accumulating debt. The bank loan debt picture is so bad that collapse is inevitable. Bankers have even gone so far as to hire martial arts experts to collect.

Many Japanese citizens are at least taking some personal responsibility by accumulating Gold as the ultimate insurance. Sales are accelerating since the banks and the government no longer insures time deposits over 10,000,000 Yen (about $75,000). Next April Fools Day 2003, deposits of all types of savings will no longer be insured over 10,000,000 Yen. Another fleecing is about to happen.

Conclusion

We can't learn anything from the Argentines, though we should. We've been down this road before. If we haven't learned anything yet, we never will. We are being set up just like the Argentines with fast easy credit. Just sign on the dotted line and spend away. The banks and the equities markets will always be open � right? Don't count on it.

On September 11, 2002, Wall Street closed up shop and the closure lasted several days. That was because of a terrorist attack. How does anyone think the US Government will react when confidence in the US banking system or currency is lost? Since the "Gold Window" was closed in 1971 and the US Dollar was no longer backed with Gold or coined in Silver, the value (purchasing power) of the US currency has fallen hard.

As the national debt rises to unsustainable levels we too face the same fate as Argentina. The transfer of wealth in the US has already begun ever since Richard M. Nixon met with his advisors on Sunday August 15, 1971. The shift can be seen as the mighty US Dollar has lost purchasing power since the "Gold Window" slammed shut.

Europeans should also take note. How can 12 countries with different political systems adopt sound fiscal policies at the same time to keep this currency viable? At the very least Europeans had better make some preparations as well. Better yet, accumulate physical precious metals as the ultimate insurance policy against the ravages of criminal bankers and governments.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
Black Blade
Central Bank Holdings - April 2002
Black Blade
Mystery of missing gold

The Times of India; Apr 16, 2002

KOLKATA: The Netaji Subhas Bose international airport police in Kolkata are in a tizzy over the mysterious disappearance of gold jewellery worth over Rs 9 lakh from a Guwahati-bound consignment of a courier company.

While the seal on the consignment was found intact, the jewellery was missing, as it was ripped open at Guwahati airport. It was then concluded that the jewellery must have been stolen at the time the consignment was being handled at NSCB airport.

Subsequently, a complaint was lodged with airport police by the courier company.The airport police initiated an investigation. Superintendent of airport police Om Prakash Gupta said,"We have interrogated all persons involved with handling of the consignment. But the mystery remains."

According to airport police, A well-known courier company was carrying nearly one kilogram well-crafted jewellery from Mumbai to Guwahati in their own cargo plane on April 9.The jewellery were meant for a number showrooms in Guwahati.

In Kolkata, the jewellery was repacked with a larger consignment of goods weighing 198 kg. The consignment was sealed before it was loaded in a Guwahatibound flight. At Guwahati airport, the police found the seal intact but the gold missing.


Black Blade: Sheesh, these people are making such a big deal. Someone went through a lot of trouble over a barbarous relic.
Black Blade
Gold, Oil, and Nat Gas - Higher
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Asian and Euro markets are much higher on Pro Forma earnings estimates. Yeah, they beat greatly lowered analysts estimates. Hope springs eternal. More earnings "estimates" are due out today.

Meanwhile Gold is rising in London, up +$1.50, NY Crude is up at $25.53/bbl, and NatGas is rebounding at $3.34 Mbtu.

It appears that Ariel Sharon has lied to George Dubya and Colin Powell. While he was telling US officials that troops were withdrawing from some areas in the West Bank, Israeli troops and tanks invaded several other towns. It now appears that reports of hundreds of Palestinians have have indeed been killed, some perhaps even summarily executed. Obviously Arab OPEC producers are hopping mad. This could play on higher petroleum prices if Iran and Libya are incensed enough to join Iraq in cutting off the flow of oil. Today the US oil inventory data is released.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
PMs and Petroleum Rising - Bridge CRB
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
These markets look good on the Bridge CRB futures as well.
4gold
contest
$$$$$291.1$$$$$

Just a lucky guess!
Black Blade
Oil Inventory Drops Sharply

OOPS! The API crude oil inventory is out (yesterday was tuesday right?). Anyway, US crude oil inventories dropped by a staggering 76.3 million barrels. Obviously imports slowed a bit.

Today we see the less reliable AGA natgas storage data. Also, very high temperatures are expected today in the eastern half of the US (about 93 degrees in NY). Expect short term higher electricity prices and many power plants are shutdown for spring maintenance. There will be more draw on NG supply to make up the shortfall.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
POG Still Rising
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is now up +2.30/oz. Apparently Colin Powell is not giving much hope of any resolution to the ME conflict. He is not happy with Sharon or Arafat and apparently he says the hell with it and will go home. Personally, I don't know why the USG even bothers to work with these people. It's hopeless.

- Black Blade
Spartacus
*** Argentinean "Tears" ***

"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines?"

The strong (overvalued) US dollar got Argentina in big troubles. Argentina needed badly a devaluation and a modest devaluation would have been good for Argentina. But Argentina could not devalue because of the dollar peg. The only way to devalue was to abandon the dollar peg...

In 1934 and 1987 the only way out for the US was a large devaluation.

Today the US dollar is grossly overvalued....
Belgian
No subject
Euroland's March inflation up to 2,5%...whoooops, the "stability" pact ! Berlusconi (Italy) stated today that Euroland should integrate economically with Russia !? Hoeewww, Germany, Italy and later maybe Japan...going for Russia...new Axis forces � la 1940/45 ?
US handing out more confetti to the Palestinians (through UN) and (!) Turkey (hahaha). Print...print...copy and multiply !
POG (mini) inverse SHS-pattern still intact. Upside potential remains when 297,6$ holds !
China's figures are good and show expansion. US a bit embarresed with Venezuela's flip flop coup d' �tat.
Greece will become vice president in ECB (Belgian didn't made a chance for reason of anti stability pact policy).
The euro is gathering strength against the dollar ! Watch for parity soon (The Gold-Power)!?
RobotGuy
Lowest I've seen the Canuck Buck in awhile! Keep goin' baby!!
RobotGuy
I meant highest, was thinking ratios, oops :)
RobotGuy
My typical beef (Stock market cheerleading)
Here's another one for ya, "Markets poised to move higher today" That just kills me, especially when the title is displayed moments after markets open lower. What is this? Pre-market open psychology?
'Understanding social psychology 101' Oooh, musta had a good prof! Here, take my submission, 'Markets poised to crash and burn at any forseeable moment' I wonder what kind of effect that might have?


Sorry Kids, just blabbin

RoboWhiner.
YGM
Latest INS Report
Gold Moves a little....Barrick up 0%
Drooy up 4.17%
CoBra(too)
Financial Services Sector in Slump!
Merrill Lynch profits fall 26% outweighing its cost cutting, while J.P. Morgan Earnings Fall 18% on Stock Losses, Investment Banking Slump
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said first-quarter profit fell 18 percent as stock holdings and revenue from investment banking tumbled. The second-biggest U.S. bank's earnings have dropped for eight straight quarters.

Gee, who wud'da have thunk, as the financial services sector gained such a prominent status in the US economy? Fat chance for second half recovery. Even Greenspan is testifying to the fragile state of the recovery.

Se u -cb2
YGM
Chinese Gold Marhet Poised for "Flight"
Lets see, hmmm! 10 grams physical times how many 100's of millions..Melbourne (Platts)--17Apr2002

The Chinese gold market is poised to take off on the back of market liberalization, governmental deregulation of the domestic gold industry, and restructuring in the local retail and jewelry sector, according to the World Gold Council. Speaking at the WGC annual general meeting in Melbourne Wednesday, WGC Chinese manager Roland Wang said China's reform in the local gold industry was a gradual process. "It is evolutionary rather than revolutionary," he said. He added there was huge market potential for higher gold production and consumption as the Chinese general public, like Japan, have high amounts of savings. "Increased income, concerns for future needs, limited investment channels means there are not enough investment channels for local investors, and they may look towards gold."
The WGC expects 0.1% of private savings moved into gold would see consumption rise by $942-mil, or over 100mt. "The Chinese gold market has entered a new era," Wang said. The official opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in May will increase transparency in the domestic gold industry. "It will have a positive impact on gold production and circulation in China," he said. The WGC has been closely working with the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese central bank in formulating guidelines and rules to assist in deregulation of the industry. This includes abolishment of retail and manufacturing licenses, development of new products, and providing information, suggestions on VAT policies. The central bank has been boosting its gold reserves over the past three years, and at end-2001, held 500mt in gold.






techbull....
$$$$ 352.00 $$$$
This base of around $300 is looking more and more stable. I think its only a matter of time before it spikes sharply.
YGM
30% Gold Shortfall Predicted.....
Optimistic? Gold Supply to Fall 30%

17.04.2002 12:36
Mature mines are running out of gold faster than new mines are being developed, which is leading to a drop in world supply of the precious metal, the worlds second largest miner of gold, AngloGold Ltd of South Africa, said today.

New mine supplies of gold will at best just keep pace with depletion of old mines or fall behind as big discoveries of the previous two decades run dry, AngloGold's chief executive Bobby Godsell said.

"Over the next ten to fifteen years, new mine supply is likely to be neutral or negative than it is to increase as it did in the last fifteen years," Godsell said on the side of a gold industry meeting.

The Toronto based Beacon Group Advisors earlier this month forecast a nearly thirty percent drop in mined gold by 2010 unless bullion prices rose to at least US$325 an ounce. Gold currently fetches around $300 an ounce after averaging around $273 an ounce last year.

Higher prices would prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, Beacon said.

**Gold Fields of South Africa chairman Chris Thompson called the studies estimate of a thirty percent drop "optimistic", predicting the decline would be greater**.
[Neftegaz.ru]

YGM
WGC Comments Apr 17 in Melbourne
More pos blah blah blah from Ms Fakuda..World Gold Council Creating New Relevance and Image for Gold

4/17/2002 7:01:00 AM

Australian meeting focuses on crucial Global Industry Issues

NEW YORK, Apr 17, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- More than 150 gold industry leaders, together with delegates and media from around the world gathered in Melbourne today to attend the World Gold Council Annual Meeting, the first to be held in Australia.


FRONT PAGE NEWS
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The meeting focused on a number of global industry issues, including perception, demand and retention of gold and the liberalization of the gold industry in developing markets, such as China and India. It also considered the three functions of gold, as money, as jewelry, and as an industrial commodity.

Addressing the Meeting today, Haruko Fukuda, CEO of the World Gold Council, said that the past few months had given a stunning demonstration of gold's value as an investment and that the World Gold Council was helping to influence the huge demand for gold triggered by the Japanese anxiety about the safety and soundness of their banking system.

Meanwhile a new study with the World Gold Council by Bain & Co. had identified, researched and documented a longer term strategy to promote gold to individuals and institutions worldwide. "In this field as in so many others, new products need to be developed and designed to meet today's rapidly changing marketplace and we have made considerable progress along this road", she said.

In discussing gold's continuing role in the world's financial markets and as an official reserve, Miss Fukuda said that governments continue to hold gold broadly for the same reasons as private individuals - because it is money that can be relied on in the long term.

However, she warned of the threat to gold's role as an official reserve asset and said that the World Gold Council vigorously counters that threat at every opportunity. "The latest threat comes from an unexpected quarter - Germany's Bundesbank - but that too, I hope, has been contained," she said, adding that the markets muted reaction arose out of its growing confidence in the Washington Agreement on Gold and that this underlined the importance of securing a renewal of the agreement on appropriate terms.

With regard to jewelry, the World Gold Council has had to remind consumers of gold's enduring values. Miss Fukuda said: "In a major advertising campaign launched in the US and Europe last year, we responded to the marketplace and began to move it again in gold's favour. With our latest development of that campaign we really are changing the way millions of people around the world think and feel about gold."

"Gold", said Miss Fukuda, "has adapted to changes in the marketplace and the World Gold Council is helping to find new roles for it in today's market, as money, as jewelry, and as an industrial commodity".

balzac
INFLATION??
Goodmorning North America and all the ships at sea.

FWIW Yesterday the Cdn. Central Bank increased interest rates

by 25 basis points. The whole commodity sector moved up

this morning. These are 2 good indicators of inflationary
pressure.
Waverider
Greenspan Says Strength of Recovery Is `Uncertain'
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APL2DpBVnR3JlZW5zSnippit:
"The strength of the U.S. economic recovery is ``still uncertain'' and inflation pressures are ``largely absent,'' which means Federal Reserve officials probably won't have to raise interest rates any time soon, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said.

Although some of the forces that had weighed on the economy over the past year, including a rapid sell-off of business inventories, have ``begun to dissipate,'' and ``prospects have brightened'' for the economy, other factors ``such as the sharp increase in world oil prices, have arisen that pose new challenges,'' Greenspan said.

Higher energy prices may take a toll on consumer spending, ``sapping the purchasing power of households,'' he said. If prices stay in their current range, the effect ``will be limited,'' Greenspan said.

``However, a price hike that drove oil prices well above existing levels for an appreciable period of time would likely have more far-reaching consequences,'' he said.

Waverider: Given the state of the US economy, there is no option to raise rates...therefore inflation data *has* to be absent. As Black Blade has being saying for some time - they'll be no economic recovery given energy prices - seems that Greenspan in his wisdom agrees. A raise in bank of Canada interest rates yesterday by .25% has strengthened the wings of the loonie today. Cheers!
Cumber
gold price guess
$$$$307.5$$$$
Hopeful the market price will continue to rise.
sector
The Looming ME War
...propaganda site's headline viewWednesday, April 17, 2002
HEADLINES

DEBKAfile Analysts:

Danger of Mid East War and Oil Embargo Aggravated
by Failure of Powell Ceasefire Mission

Powell Ends 10 Days Mid East Shuttle Wednesday
Without Palestinian-Israeli Truce or Breakthrough

Mubarak Cancels Their Meeting� � Powell to Meet
Egyptian and Jordanian foreign Ministers in Cairo

Palestinians: Second 2-Hour Powell-Arafat Encounter
Was "Catastrophic"

Arafat: "My Situation Will Reflect on Stability of Whole Middle East"

Talking to Reporters in Jerusalem, Powell Reports Sharon's Precise
Timeline of Days for Israeli Military Pullout from Palestinian Towns �
But Siege of Arafat's Ramallah Compound and Bethlehem's
Nativity Church Are Separate

Powell Demands Palestinians Renounce Terror
"Which Holds their Dream of Statehood Hostage"
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

All this downward spiralling turmoil places much greater pressure upon the Saudi ruling family as it has given their opponents [Who hate them] traction....thus increasing the probability of an oil embargo if the royals are deposed.

One can reasonably predict that gold demand in the ME is ramping up even more now.
Basil
Gold Price Contest
$$$$ 318.75 $$$$


When is this inflated housing market going to unravel?
Everywhere one looks are offers to borrow against home equity.Once these tragic layoffs start to really bite-- can growing levels of foreclosures and price drops be far behind?

Why do we let that clown Greenspan and the folks he fronts for--control most everything in world's economy via the freedom to create money out of nothing?
YGM
World's Second Largest Gold Nugget....
http://www.usc.edu/dept/earth/people/morrison/gold.htmlPaint it black and put it in the garden rockery, plant poison oak all around it????? We should 'all' have such a problem!
Cavan Man
USGOV.DEBT
Income Taxes Help U.S. Treasury


By Leigh Strope
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, April 17, 2002; 11:25 AM

WASHINGTON �� A flood of income tax payments has helped ease pressure on the national debt ceiling and allowed the Treasury Department to begin restoring money shifted out of government employee pension accounts last month to avert an unprecedented government default, officials said Wednesday.

The Bush administration also continued to press a deadlocked Congress, which has avoided an election-year vote to extend the government's authority to borrow, to act because the $5.95 trillion debt limit could be hit this summer.

"The need to raise the debt ceiling has only been postponed," Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said in a Wednesday letter to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. The Bush administration wants a $750 billion increase.

O'Neill earlier this month moved federal retirement funds into a non-interest-bearing account to free room for more borrowing. The juggling of federal retirement accounts has been done before in standoffs with Congress and has no effect on employees' retirement funds.

The money was moved back Tuesday and interest paid after income tax payments began flowing into Treasury coffers after Monday's tax deadline.

Without the shifting of funds, the government would have been technically in default on the debt � which has never happened in the country's history. That would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, which are considered the world's safest investment. It also would mean the government would be forced to pay billions of dollars in higher interest payments on the national debt in future years.

The debt limit issue is more about politics than economics.

Some Democrats want to use the issue in November's election to help drive home their message that President Bush's $1.35 trillion, 10-year tax cut last year was too generous and has pushed the country back into deficit spending.

Republicans who control the House have lacked the votes to pass legislation increasing the debt limit because of opposition from conservatives, who are leery that it will lead to more spending.

G$
$$$$$$$$$$$ 309.10 $$$$$$$$$$$$$
The market will rally and close within pennies of the Feb 8 high and we will wait with baited breath through the weekend for the exogenous event that the cabal can not predict to break the market wide open.....Hey I can dream can't I?

G$
YGM
David & Goliath....
http://www.goldnuggets.com/nuggets/lp/lp_001.jpgHere's the rock with which GATA (David) will slay Cabal (Goliath)......YGM.
Gandalf the White
QUESTION to Sir Basil !!!
Basil (4/17/02; 10:35:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 73617)
Gold Price Contest
$$$$ 318.75 $$$$
===
Shall we ROUND off the nickel UP or DOWN ?
Tenths please.
Tks
<;-)
Gandalf the White
NOTICE !! <;-)
Wednesday's GC2M Settlement Price was $302.8 and the outstanding open contracts decreased slightly Tuesday to 106K. LESS THAN 48 hours until we know the winners !
BUT, LESS THAN 24 hours until the DEADLINE for entries !!
DEADLINE is HIGH NOON, Denver time on Thursday, for entries.
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK !! Do not contempulate tooooo much.
<;-)
BLUENOSE
Contest
I have been a lurker at USA Gold for many years. I would like to thank all of you for taking the time to post so that the rest of us can learn. I would also like to thank MK for the site. I am hoping that Another and FOA will soon return so that we can again start hiking. I think that the trail is becoming more dangerous with every passing day and we need our guide back. I believe that gold will break violently upwards without any notice or reason visible to the average person on the street and that if you are not on board you may miss the train altogether. I do not see any reason why gold can't start moving now so I will guess $$$$$317.20$$$$$
YGM
More on Japan's Waterloo, 11 Trillion Dollars and Gold.
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256B9E0050CEFC?OpenDocumentNow they're talking 500 T of Au could possibly be moved into Japanese holdings......Get goin I need another +/- $2.50 by noon tomorrow :<)
The Hoople
$$$306.40$$$
FRN's coming down on us like a blizzard. How long before those rube foreigners realize the Fed is a traveling huckster wagon selling worthless snake oil? Wait until all the dollar holders want out of the burning building at once? Nope, not me. 306.40 seems the proper suppressed price. Good for another Rukeyser sneer Friday. ABX lives to hedge another day. JPM can concentrate on what they do best, field SEC inquiries into Enron's manipulations. Fannie/Freddie can continue making mortgage deals we (literally) can't refuse.
Basil
Sir Gandalf
$$$$ 317.7 $$$$

Regards

Artie Farkle
gold price guess
$$$302.6$$$
Just because. : )

Black Blade
Might recovery around the world be checked by dearer oil?
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=4366.topic
Snippit:

THE spectre of another oil crisis all of a sudden looms large, and this at a time when the world economy has barely begun to recover from last year's recession. There are fears that conflict in the Middle East could once again send oil prices sharply higher�and send world economic output tumbling. To judge by the rise in oil prices thus far, such fears are overdone. But do not underestimate the power of oil.

If Libya and Iran joined a putative embargo, however, that would create a further shortfall of 3.5m barrels a day�too much even for the Saudis, as swing producers, to fill. Spare oil capacity outside OPEC might fill the gap eventually�but in the short term, the oil price would soar.



Black Blade: It was the "Economist" magazine in 1998 that had the feature article "Awash in Oil". The point of the article was that Oil would never rise above $5.00/bbl. They had to eat a lot of crow since then. Also, Bob Pissani on CNBC said that there is a rumor that there will be a new tax on North Sea Oil as the fields are declining in production (actually he said that they were "running out of oil").

BTW, I made a misprint this morning � Oil inventory shramk by 7.3 million bbl, (not 76.3 million � small key board?).

Guided
Contest
****** 299.80 ******
I wish I thought it would be different but it's been dropping just below 300 at weeks end for a while now if I remember right. Big if... Just think it's gonna be a while yet before big changes. Months, not years would be my guess.
I would like to ask a few questions of persons here who may be able to give reasonably accurate answers. Don't know if it's possible.

1. How much physical gold does the cabal possess. Who is the cabal other than a gold price control entity.
2. How much physical gold is owned by governments. Or is the cabal and government one in the same in some cases.
3. How much free gold exists in the world (individually possessed)

Thanks all.
Guided
Contest guess surrounds - Make that dollar signs
$$$$$$ 299.80 $$$$$$
Black Blade
Wall Street's Den of Thieves
http://www.fastcompany.com/online/58/jellis.html
If you follow the trail of deceit from Enron to its natural lair, it only leads to one destination: Wall Street. Here's why.

Snippit:

The first thing you learn on Wall Street: Earnings don't mean anything. Everyone assumes that earnings are financially engineered ( sometimes downward! ) to meet a variety of stakeholder expectations. The key expectation -- the one that stakeholders want companies to meet -- is steady growth. Earnings that spike and swoon set off alarm bells at places like Fidelity. Steady growth makes fund managers feel calm and content.

Black Blade: Interesting article that dissects the role of the Wall Street Pimps, Trolls, and other crooks.

BTW, look at that last hour rebound on Wall Street. Hmmm...
timbervision
Belgian
I heard today, but didn't see it myself, on ROB TV, Canada's national business news channel, a guest financial expert, extolling the virtues of gold. He also mentioned several times that gold has been suppressed in a rigged market. He predicted that gold could rise to $500 or more within two years or earlier.

That said, if the current unhedged mines are priced at a forward looking price of gold of say $325 an ounce, what is the tripwire point at which a rising gold price causes the short squeeze on the cabalistical fiat banker types (of course provided you believe this linkage). If this price is somewhere in the next $25 to $50 worth of gold's rise then should we not all be making our leisurely shift into physical now?
Graefin
Contest...
WOW! What a way to flush people out of the woodwork!!! ;)
- Gr�fin
cwa
price guessing
$$$$$306.3$$$$$

That is my best possible guess.
Joanne
Timbervision
That was John Embry on ROB TV. He is the manager of the Royal Bank's Precious Metal Fund. He and Ross Healy are the only ones I watch on that show. About a month ago, someone called in and asked which is better, gold stocks or metal and Ross Healy said up until gold reaches $600 the stocks are better, after that get the metal. (Unfortunately the metal will be a little pricey at that stage.)
Yukon
Contest
Thanks to MK for holding this contest and providing this forum. Thanks also to all who take the time to share wisdom and insight in this arena of constant change. While it seems that the rules always get changed midway to bolster the PTB, it is refreshing to see that I am not alone in my strident beliefs and uncompromising morals as we await the final hour of judgment. While waiting for the Truth and the restoration of Constitutional government to return (I hear there will be a vote in both the House and Senate next week! ;))I submit the following for the contest...

$$$$304.8$$$$

This number is based on both fundamental and technical analysis, projected two days into the future with information presently available using RSI, Stochastics, 3 separate moving average lines as well as a host of other prognosication tools including current mining data, CFTC commitment of traders report, and a call to JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Deutche Bank, HSBC (Thats Hong Kong Shang-Hai Banking Corp. in case you did not know...I personally find it a bit decieving)and CSFB, of which I am still awaiting a return call from them all. I.E. A guess!

Thanks again and good luck to all!

Yukon

P.S.: A quick question to the forum if there are any takers. Would there have to be an official gold price ($42.44, $424, $4240 or whatever) in order for legislation like that proposed by the National Economic Stabilization and Recovery Act (NESARA) to be effective? If so, what would be the most reasonable(?) price? Also, if the U.S. government fixed the price of gold and silver and issued coinage for circulation of both metals, would gold trade freely elsewhere in the world or would this prompt a return to a fixed bi-metal standard within all countries since the U.S. is the worlds largest economy?

CoBra(too)
Interesting day in the markets!
SM's down, long bond down and $ down hard. Usually the POG is bopped in this kind of environment. Even if the battle for 300$ per oz of au may not be terminally decided, it does seem the upward pressure will eventually persevere, as the CB's, BB's and hedgers lose ground - and the metal to defend the Maginot Line (Bill Bucklers 300$ au term).

Demand/supply fundamentals were upheld for too long and now may come back with a vengeance. Too many people are starting to wake up to the fact that all may not be as good as it seems in Fiat Land. 401K's are eroding 'value' at a pace and to a degree, where even the most ardent bull starts to question the wisdom of to hock his future financial safety - unhedged - to the Wall Street Casino.

And besides it is starting to sink in that the only real advances were registered in the natural resource, energy and particularily the PM-Sector.


- Still wondering about POG in the immediate future - and Greenspan's alleged advise to the BB's some time ago - that come May there might find themselves alone in the Gold Hedging (Shorting) Arena. Wonder also, what in reality is left in the CB's vaults as this time the equivalent of the old London Gold Pool has been going on for at least 10 to 15 years until it took on steam in late 1996? - Anyway, we'll probably know soon enough - come May.

Therefor, it seems the POG may still be checked for a week or two - and my price guessing entry hopefully will be:

$$$$ 305.30 $$$$


@ Belgian, Sir - Thanks for your kind words on my country. As I must admit Mr. Michel was seen as public enemy for a while in my country and he seemed berserk at the time frontrunning the rest of EU's socialist politicians.

Anyway, as always good to read your insights.

Regards - cb2



luckypierre
Contest
$$$$$304.2$$$$$

No analysis involved - I would just like to see it go higher.

I just joined this forum - great insights, and a refreshing dearth of weird conspiracy theorists.

Luckypierre
goldroadlx7
price guessing contest
$$$$$305.80$$$$$ thanks mk for another chance at the gold,looks like we've made a base at 300.00+ and it seems to be holding rather well. hopefully by thurs close we can move the base up to 305.00+?building a solid base works everytime and its working now.all the best to mk and everyone who posts here goldroadlx7
Belgian
@ Guided @ Timbervision
Guided: My 2 cts answer attempt on your suestions :
1/ Theoretically one can mobilize as much Physical Gold for manipulation (intervention) as one likes ! Keep POG in a downward spiral with paper-gold-contracts and there will always be volunteers to risk some of their precious Physical, be it above or underground. But of course there are limits. WA and alikes / part of the 2.500 tonnes yearly mined Gold becoming unsustainably unprofitable to mine /
permanent Physical uptake (panic/fear) / a sudden declaration on Free Gold by officials etc...
Cabal = The Gold faction in the financial brotherhood in collusion with the political rulers.
2/ Governments + Institutions = 32,633 tonnes (see post BB)
3/ 144.000 - 32,633 = 111.367 tonnes of Gold in Private hands (75% jewelry). Add some black unknown Gold too.
Good luck with your POG guess.

Timbervision : It is exactly because we/us don't know HOW POG will rise, that carry the high risk for holding Goldminestocks ! All kind of scenarios for the POG revaluation are open. Impossible to predict at what point into the POG run, that minevaluations and POG will decouple and not relate anymore !!! In the best case scenario that you succeeded in cashing your mineprofits...you will always have missed the final revaluation of Gold ! POG of FREE GOLD, will not cycle anymore as it did for the past 30 years. And it is exactly here that each one of us has to decide if he believes or not in FREE GOLD !
But even in the case of postponed Free Gold...you will always regret of having missed this once in a lifetime period / opportunity of having REAL PHYSICAL GOLD in your possession at obscene prices. And just investigate WHY 300$ is an obscene valuation. What happened with the confetti avalanches (+ digits) during the past 30 years whilst POG went from 42$ to today's 300$ ? Put 144.000 tonnes x 300$ = 1 trillion $ into many perspectives and proportions.
Let 32.633 tonnes of official Goldreserves *compensate* for
the coming manifestation of the accumulated depreciation during alll these years, of all dollar-reserves ! You will be surprised. Good Luck to you Sir.
Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTOK-- The entries are starting to bunch-up now !
Don't wait too long before you make you choice.
WELCOME to all the FORMER Lurkers !!
Come on in all you others.
The TableRound is large enough for ALL.
<;-)



GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 352.0 $$$$ techbull.... (4/17/02; 08:33:26MT msg#: 73610

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ Basil (4/17/02; 13:33:10MT msg#: 73627

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ BLUENOSE (4/17/02; 13:01:12MT msg#: 73624

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 309.1 $$$$ G$ (4/17/02; 11:07:04MT msg#: 73620

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Cumber (4/17/02; 09:39:08MT msg#: 73615

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.4 $$$$ The Hoople (4/17/02; 13:23:27MT msg#: 73626
$$$$ 306.3 $$$$ cwa (4/17/02; 14:35:39MT msg#: 73635

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.8 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (4/17/02; 15:40:05MT msg#: 73640

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.3 $$$$ CoBra(too) (4/17/02; 15:19:39MT msg#: 73638

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.8 $$$$ Yukon (4/17/02; 15:18:31MT msg#: 73637

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.2 $$$$ luckypierre (4/17/02; 15:28:04MT msg#: 73639

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540

$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456

$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392

$$$$ 302.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (4/17/02; 13:34:25MT msg#: 73628
$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451

$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490

$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 301.0 $$$$ Gimli_ (04/16/02; 20:43:05MT msg#: 73573

$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426
$$$$ 299.8 $$$$ Guided (4/17/02; 13:44:12MT msg#: 73631
$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436
$$$$ 291.1 $$$$ 4gold (4/17/02; 04:30:37MT msg#: 73599

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!
===
<;-)
USAGOLD
Graefin:
Your comment: "Contest...WOW! What a way to flush people out of the woodwork!!! ;)"

Now if we can just get some of these folks to stick around and share their thinking, sources, information, etc. on a regular basis, we would all become that much richer. Two of the reasons (among many) we started this forum was to

(1) show all the goldmeisters around the world that they were not alone in their convictions (we were just spread out)

(2) show the rest of the investment business that the gold community is not what Wall Street and the press would have the world believe, but diametrically the opposite.

As I have said a couple times before, gold advocates are among the most intelligent and involved people in the society -- some of the people who care the most for themselves, for their families, for their communities including the nations they live in. When CNBC or Louis Ruykeyser take it upon themselves to criticize the gold owner they are criticizing the physicians who care for them when they are ill, the dentists who spend long hours at the chair, the hardware store owner who we visit on Saturday mornings to work down that "honey-do" list, the cop that keeps us safe, and the soldier who fights our battles for us. Just to name a few. When you criticize the gold owner, you criticize those who make this country work.

You see it here everyday. I'm not talking anything you don't already know.

My thanks to all who have entered the contest. A thank you as well to thosewho went to the trouble to post a kind word about USAGOLD and Centennial Precious Metals. We work hard to bring this site to you as well as all our gold services. Please think of us when the time comes to make that gold purchase.

Many thanks to my wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White, who makes these contests so enjoyable for all.

Good luck to all. Somehow I don't think Cavan Man's gonna win.

Canuck
Test
5:50 Eastern
Canuck
Test
17:52 Eastern
turkey hunter
Price guessing contest
$$$$$$$$$ 315.00 $$$$$$$$$$

I'm getting ready to build my first house. I suppose the economy will tank real bad and the bank will want there money back and gold will only go up about 15 bucks. At least the bank doesn't know about the gold and silver.
CoBra(too)
Re: USAGOLD Post re Gr�fin
MK - your afterthought CM may not win the contest. - He probably has won already as he's stating 999 fine ... way to go CM :) - Cheers cb2
YGM
New GATA Site (Chinese)
http://www.GATAChinese.org GATA and Samex Mining Announce
www.GATAChinese.org to Promote Gold

DALLAS (Business Wire, April 17, 2002) -- The
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee is proud to
bring the following announcement to your
attention, which was released this afternoon
by Jeff Dahl, Chief Executive Officer of
Samex Mining, headquartered in Vancouver,
Canada:


SAMEX MINING CORP.
CDNX:SXG, OTCBB:SMXMF)
Contact 800-828-1488

NEWS RELEASE No. 7-02
April 17, 2002

GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION WEB SITE
LAUNCHED IN CHINESE LANGUAGE

In continued support of the Gold Anti-Trust
Action Committee (GATA -- see http://www.gata.org),
SAMEX is pleased to sponsor the creation,
translation, and hosting of a Chinese language
version of the GATA web site
(http://www.gatachinese.org).

SAMEX has been an outspoken supporter of
GATA, a U.S.-based not-for-profit
organization, which contends that a hidden
scheme exists to manage and even manipulate
the U.S. dollar price of gold for the benefit
of certain knowledgeable parties to the
detriment of others.

GATA has researched, documented, and is now
supporting ongoing U.S. federal court
litigation against certain international
banking, government, and quasi-government
institutions. GATA has received much support
through the efforts of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-
Texas,, who has introduced legislation (the
Monetary Freedom and Accountability Act)
designed to curb the potential manipulation
of worldwide gold prices.

Samex management is convinced that the
research GATA has assembled over the past
three years may be of significant interest
internationally. The new web site will enable
Chinese investors to read and evaluate
pertinent GATA information in their native
language, thereby broadening the
understanding of these important issues to a
large segment of the global population.

NAI Interactive LTD., a subsidiary of
ChineseWorldNet.com ("CWN") has constructed
and will maintain the GATA/Chinese web site.
CWN hosts a leading Chinese financial Web
portal in North America with more than 30,000
members. With operations in Toronto,
Vancouver, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing,
CWN aims to link the Chinese financial
community worldwide.

Through e-mail disseminations, Internet
banner links and coverage in CWN's Chinese
language bi-weekly newspaper, the
GATA/Chinese Web site will receive
substantial worldwide coverage through a
variety of media over the weeks and months
ahead. Pertinent GATA updates and news
releases will also be translated and
disseminated through these channels.

GATA has tirelessly researched and published
much evidence supporting Samex management's
conviction that something has been amiss in
the "free markets." GATA's contentions have
important implications for investors in the
exploration and mining sector. We are
grateful for their efforts and consider the
GATA/Chinese initiative an appropriate way to
support them with the dissemination of this
information in another language. Go, GATA,
go!

-- Jeffrey Dahl
President, Samex Mining Corp.
Boxman
Contest
$$$$$$$298.40$$$$$$$

Entrails. After the last contest, and being well out of the money, I decided to go this route. That darned cabal truck that ran over my entrails has made it more difficult than I had hoped for, But it does look like a 2, or maybe it is a 3, blurred by tire tracks.

Cavan Man, if you win, I'll send you one of mine also (1 oz. that is)

If The Invisible Hand wins, I will be most generous.

PS: Black Blade, I have not forgotton your request for information concerning the box business, but next week is my last week before retirement, and it has been nutty. I will respond as soon as I have the time to give it the thought it deserves.

CoBra(too)
A Snippet from Perth's Gold Conference ...

Chris Thompson
Chairman
Gold Fields

"If gold gets way above its replacement price � we'd hedge it!"

"Australians have been eating our lunch at rugby and cricket. Sorry to say they also found gold in South Africa before we did. But they didn't stick around to see what happened."

"Most signals are that gold will get better. The reward for a small contango is just not worth the risk and gold is still below its replacement value."


As Chris has now retired to Denver, he might tell us more about replacement prices ... and at what price renewed exploration may kick in?

cb2

A Canadian
Gold Kist says chicken sales to Russia may lag.

This just spotted on K "gold news". I view this disturbing element as another clearly bullish indicator for AU. Hence my conservative guess of ****555.50***** for P.O.G. guessing contest.
FluorideCommie
Contest
$$$$$$$299.00$$$$$$$

How did I arrive at this price? The fluoridation of Canadian water was more than just a Godless Communist plot that turned Canadians to socialised health care while strengthening our teeth; it also gave me the ability to incorrectly predict the price of gold in every other price guessing contest I've entered at this site. So I looked at what prices were left and filled in a gap!

I don't always have time to keep up with all the postings at this site, but what I have read has fundamentally changed the way I view and understand the world. My congratulations and thanks to USA Gold and all the fine contributers here.
Pizz
*****Argentinean tears********

As the Argentine economy falls into the abyss, taking the bulk of the Argentineans with it, I cannot help but think we are witnessing a compressed view of our own future.

Deficit spending, the tying of the peso to the dollar to give the illusion of a noninflationary economy, and the subsequent devaluation and floating of the peso has nearly completely destroyed their entire economic system.

An individual, group, or nation can only live beyond their means at someone else's expense. When governments print and spend money at a greater rate than resources can be developed for consumption, the beneficiaries of the government's excesses are at the expense of all through inflation. Governments just do not understand that someone, somewhere, sometime will have to pay for that "free lunch".

As we continue to export our inflation through dollar hegemony, trade deficits, and government budget deficits, I cannot help but think we are on the same path as Argentina. Controlling the price of gold to give the illusion of a strong dollar is the Argentinean equivilent of tying the peso to the dollar. Rather than accept the warning signs of a weakening currency brought on by loose monetary policy, they elected to "give the illusion" of strength. As the financial pressures finally grew to great, their economy imploded. A very selfish, short-sighted, democratically engineered economic policy.

The following quote from Alexander Tyler in the late 1700's may be more profound, astute, and applicable than most may think. I personally agree.

------------------------------------------------------------

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasury. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship.

The average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage."

Alexander Tyler

------------------------------------------------------------

In my humble opionion, Argentina is entering the dependency stage Tyler suggests. History may just support Tyler's views, and if so, what can we learn from Argentina's economic failure and the tears of their citizens?

The realization that if Tyler is correct in his assumptions, we are probably only one or two stages ahead of Argentina. Would it not be prudent to have our assets denominated in something other than fiat "backed by the full faith of" a government system on the brink of collapse?

Gold has a better longevity and track record than any government or fiat in recorded history.

How will your wealth be denominated as we continue to prove Tyler correct?

Pizz
Sierra Madre
Comment on the World Gold Council plans...

I believe this quote is from the recent WGC statement; I picked it up from a neighboring site:

"In a move to promote gold as an investment vehicle, Gold Council Chief Executive Haruko Fukuda said the
council plans to launch shortly some new gold- backed investment products to attract institutional investors."

This sounds very typical of the WGC. Too typical.

Why on earth "GOLD-BACKED" investment "PRODUCTS"? Simple, this is a red herring, a distraction. When you hear of brokers or banks promoting a "product", you just have to know it is a scheme to separate you from your money. Or haven't we learnt that yet?

For Heaven's sake, if you want to INVEST, invest in the gold itself! But, no. For WGC, it has to be a "product" which is "gold-backed" - in other words, the gold is not there, it just might be to some extent.

Whatever the plan, I say right away the plan stinks, before I know anything else about it.

These people at the WGC are the worst enemies of gold - and placed where they can do most harm: disguised as "spokesmen" for gold.

Just get the gold at usagold.com! That's "the product", seek no further.

.............

YUKON - your questions regarding what would happen if the Fed or the Treasury were to fix an "x" higher price for gold.

Forget about any future "fixing" of the gold price. It cannot be done. Of course a new price can be SAID to be the new, fixed price. But, it must cave in sooner or later. There can be no confidence whatsoever in a new "fixed" price, for the simple reason that the financial structure of the U.S. economy is so terribly distorted by immense amounts of debt, that credit must continue to be expanded and expanded until the final collapse of the whole structure.

Any real, permanent fixing would require putting a brake on the expansion of credit, and that brake on expansion would spell the instant meltdown of the whole financial structure.

So, gold is effectively going to the moon. It may do so in stages, where some gold holders will be taken in and deceived into parting with their gold, only to see it take off again when they have none any more.

The wise gold holder will hold on to his gold, no matter what the price, until conditions change. And conditions will not change, in my opinion, for a very long time. Many of us will not live to see the changes in conditions which will warrant parting with gold, except as small portions of total holdings and for very good personal reasons.

Thanks for reading

Sierra
Bound Spirit
Reluctant Entry
$$$$$300.2$$$$$

I'm Reluctant to enter because of my lurker status. Like all lottery winners - gain without out effort can ruin your life. However, due to the daily counciling I receive from this forum, I think I can avoid the abyss.

My guess is based on the POG going virtually nowhere because cataclysmic opposing forces (eg. bubblehead propaganda vs GAAP earnings ) will virtually cancel each other this week.

Gandalf The White - I'm interested in learning more about your message #72969. I live in the PNW and would like to participate. My "over achievement disability" (i.e. I work all the time) prevents much change to my lurker status - but I still would like an opportunity to enter the fray and prove my worthiness.
Scarab
Price contest
My geuss: $$$$301.7$$$$
Why: this guess is as good as any in the 295-305 range. Ie. teh bullish forces ahve not dicisively broken the bearish ones.
Sierra Madre
Comment on Pizz post regarding Argentina

I quote from your post:

"Governments just do not understand that someone, somewhere, sometime will have to pay for that "free lunch"."

I am quite sure that governments do understand, quite clearly, that someone, somewhere, sometime will have to pay for that "free lunch".

Governments are made up of individuals and they are interested only in what happens under their watch. That the people are going to be ripped off, means nothing to them, all they care about is not getting the blame while they are in office. That's the way the system operates; although there are surely some good people in office, they cannot fight the system.

How this is to be remedied, I have no idea. Such is the world in which we live.

Sierra
YGM
Sprott Asset Management,...Hedging Investments With !5 Million (US) in Gold Fund
"Wise Move"...The "Trend of the Future" by many Institutions....IMHOMAJOR PRIVATE PLACEMENT FOR CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA



Central Fund Of Canada Limited announces completion of a private placement today of 4,153,846 Class A shares for aggregate gross proceeds of U.S. $15,660,000. The shares are being issued at a non-dilutive price of U.S. $ 3.77 per share, being Cdn. $6.00 at the exchange rate of 1.5918.

The subscription was received unsolicited from Canadian Investment Manager, Sprott Asset Management Inc., together with its managed accounts, Sprott Canadian Equity Fund and accounts and/or pooled investment vehicles managed by Sprott Asset Management Inc.

The U.S. $15,660,000 has been invested in an additional 26,800 fine ounces of gold and 1,340,000 ounces of silver with approximately US $992,400 retained, after expenses of the issue, as working capital.

The new total of issued and outstanding Class A shares of Central Fund of Canada Limited is 23,566,706. The holdings of Central Fund are now represented by 159,027 fine ounces of gold, 7,955,768 ounces of silver and U.S. $1,852,989 primarily in cash and other net assets.


J.C. Stefan Spicer, President and CEO.

Au-some
Contest
$$$$$302.1$$$$$
The POG is sidewinding, it could strike at any moment...
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
megatrends indicate that the chickens may all come home to roast
In simple concepts..........

Each hemisphere has its own gravity towards free trade in a common currency and those nation states in that hemisphere each want to extract the advantages of issuing its own reserve currency.

So the slow migration of dollars across the oceans to other nations

Asia may be too unorganized to form a currency bloc but if they run into gold then what's the difference. Then GOLD becomes their common denominator. Do we have any comprehension of what the demand for gold could become if the dollar got weak and all of China had freedom to buy gold? Legalized gold ownership in China means it becomes a big provider of gold on the black market for all of Asia that still has any gold ownership restrictions. How many borders touch mainland China? We know the force of envy will be at work affecting those in Asia who ignored gold's move from 280 to 300. How about a move to 330? Qea sera sera, SAYONARA Goldmeistersan, physical gold how much you have? In my family....................

The bull market in gold may involve a general bull market in commodities (things real), and gold is just the king of the commodities. The next bull market is going to be in commodities I believe, because all this paper is going to find a home in something real as the stock market is suffering another liquidity crisis. Real estate may boom to but for what if corporations are selling it off to create earnings. The surveyors will be so busy slicing off any parcels and tracts that can be sold to generate cash. People say they aren't making any more land. Wrong thinking, they make more land every time they relax a zoning ordinance or shoot a line with a "total station". Surveyors create land. Wilderness sits there until it gets surveyed, then deeded, then sold.
Goldilocks 1
Price Contest
$$$$$302.7$$$$$
Poised to move up but not this week.
USAGOLD
A Few Random Thoughts. . .
�� Picked up a U.S. News and World Report today to read over lunch. The main story in the financial section had to do with the first decade of the 2000s becoming a repeat of the 1970s. They asked if anyone had kept their old Whip Inflation Now buttons.
By the way, anyone remember who dreamed up the WIN program? I'll be Black Blade does. Don't give it away, BB. Let's see who else might know.

�� Gold is up about 40� in the after-market. Wall Street can't seem to sustain anything. Since mid-1999 many stocks have lost between 30% and 50% of their listed value. If you put $10,000 in General Electric -- generally considered a conservative, blue chip investment -- in September, 1999 when the Washington Agreement was signed, it would be worth $7500 at present. If you put that same $10,000 into gold it would be worth about $11,500. That amounts to a swing of roughly 35%. If you did the same analysis using the NASDAQ index instead of GE, the level of capital incineration becomes much more interesting. The swing would have been roughly 50% -- from $11,500 to $6000. Gold represents capital preservation in times like these and you can't just look at where gold is going, but the opportunity cost accrued by not owning it.

�� Got an e-mail from my publisher today saying that the Nigerian justice department had ordered 100 copies of The ABC's of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Gold Ownership.....Now that one throws me. Any ideas?
Goldfly
WIN Buttons
Ford...I don't know who among his advisers was ultimately responsible, but I do remember the Dems suggesting the button be turned over for

"No Immediate Miacles"

Horse Steaks anyone? (Carter years, because beef became so expensive, the were laying horsemeat in the grocery shelves.

"Waiter, we shall have the hyper-inflation, with a side of Horse d'oeuvres."
Nomad
Contest

Contest
$$$$$302.8$$$$$

Unfortunately I don't see the price moving much soon. On the good side, some of us would like to get more before it goes up :)

Also, I am convinced that there is a bubble in real estate just like there was (and still is) in stocks (in my old neighborhood, a 3 BR house runs $750,000 on average ... give me a break !).

Unlike stocks, which are paper wealth, real estate is backed by loans which need to be repaid. When the housing market starts to crumble, the fourth turning begins in earnest (http://www.fourthturning.com).

the other day housing starts fell by nearly 8 percent, but this is just a fall from the atmospheric heights of Feb.

Not yet kids ... but soon.
mikal
@USAGOLD
Congratulations on your sale of 100 copies of your classic treatise on gold to the government of a major oil producer and exporter. Let us know if they come thru for a little AU. ; )) This is just more bullish, bullish news. Again congratulations.
Waverider
USAGold and Nigeria
http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/West_Africa/0,1113,2-11-998_1169142,00.htmlSnippit:
"Closely listened to by his African peers, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo urged African leaders Tuesday to put in place their own systems for monitoring good government and human rights on the continent.

Obasanjo, speaking ahead of a promised massive infusion of aid by the world's wealthiest nations, also challenged African heads of state to open debate on Western demands linking aid to good government by them."

Waverider: MK - The NEPAD initiative will be top of the agenda at the G8 Summit in Canada in June. Maybe Nigeria is contemplating how they will manage expected foreign aid...did you ever think your words of wisdom on Gold investment would have such far-reaching consequences on a continent half way around the globe? Cheers, off for a run, later.
ji
Contest
$$$$$343.00$$$$$

If I stick with this guess I'll be right sooner or later.
Black Blade
Supply drop lifts oil to one-week high
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Futures+Movers&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures prices rose past $26 a barrel Wednesday to touch their highest level in a week as a hefty decline in last week's U.S. crude supplies rekindled concerns over reduced output in Venezuela and Iraq's oil embargo. "The domestic problems in Venezuela that have slowed loadings could potentially put a bigger dent in crude import numbers next week," said Bruce Cavella, a senior economist at DRI-WEFA.

Natural gas rises on supply update

Also on the Nymex, May natural gas rose by 18.3 cents, or 5.6 percent, to $3.477 per million British thermal units after the American Gas Association posted a rise in last week's inventories that on the low end of many analysts' expectations. The AGA said supplies rose by 10 billion cubic feet to total stocks of 1.425 trillion cubic feet. A year ago, supplies stood at 705 billion cubic feet.

The market was looking for a climb of 10 billion to 40 billion cubic feet, according to Ron Denhardt, an analyst at DRI-WEFA. Denhardt pegged his own estimate at a rise of 30 billion cubic feet. The smaller-than-expected rise suggests that "the supply/demand balance is tighter than most expected," he said.


Black Blade: Next week the data could show a drop in Oil and NG supply based on ME and Venezuela supply drops in Oil and higher temperatures on the East Coast. NG supply is about even with storage levels of 2 years ago (2000). It was the over-optimistic veiw of supply in 2000 that led to the "Energy Crisis" last year.

WIN Button? Even after all these years I still get a chuckle over that.
USAGOLD
Goldfly, Black Blade. . . .
For our younger readers who didn't live those times, I think its important to explain the innocence and naivete of it all. In those days, we had already experienced long gas lines, double digit inflation, a slow-motion stock market crash and a gold price which had gone from $42 to well over $200 and then back down again to $100. That -- and polyester (oil) suits in a nutshell was what the 1970s were all about. Along came the Ford administration amidst a classic stagflation -- and remember after a president had left the office in disgrace -- to tell us that inflation was a behavioral problem with the American people. All we had to do is have the right attitude and inflation would disappear. Gold advocates and political conservatives at the time went ballistic when the Whip Inflation Now program became the public relations ploy of the U.S. government. They knew that inflation was a monetary phenomena, not a frame of mind harbored by the American people -- an attempt to shift the blame from government, the real culprit. The rest of the population just thought it silly as they paid astronomical prices for gasoline, food and life's necessities. A song came out during the period titled "Stick the Hose Up Your Nose, Ayatollah" -- a reference to the Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran, who had taken an aggressive role in witholding oil production. (In case you think all this nonsense in the Middle East is anything new.) More people probably remember the song than who was responsible for the Whip Inflation Now button program. At the same time, some will be surprised who dreamed it up, others will nod their head in appreciation. As I wrote this I couldn't help but think about Japan where the politicians there are convinced that the problem has to do with the Japanese cultural aversion to spending money. Some financial wizard there might come up with a Japanese version of WIN. It would be Spend It Now (Sin).. . . .Everyone line up for your button.

Goldfly. . . .Wait til Gandalf sees you posted. (Smile) And in classic Goldfly style.
turkey hunter
USAGOLD and 100 copies of ABC's of gold
The former Nigerian President probably got some copies for his family to study so they can convert their 2 billion dollars they looted into metal. I think I got this from the TimesOnline. Not sure. Good a reason as any!


April 18, 2002

Plundered $1bn to be returned to Nigeria
By James Doran

THE family of General Sani Abacha, the former Nigerian President who plundered more than $3 billion of state cash in the 1990s, has agreed to return about $1 billion (�695 million) in an out-of-court settlement. The agreement shunts one of the biggest international money-laundering cases towards an unexpectedly early close.

The Nigerian authorities have agreed to cancel all legal actions against Mohammed Abacha, the former President's son, his associates and members of the Abacha family who participated in the settlement, freeing them from the threat of multimillion-dollar fines.

Only Abdulkadir Abacha, the former President's brother, remains on the list of potential defendants in connection with some $90 million he is alleged to have hidden in Switzerland.

Swiss banks, which held the bulk of General Abacha's plundered loot, will return $535 million to the Nigerian Government. Banks in Jersey are expected to return some $200 million, and those in Luxembourg and Liechtenstein a total of $300 million.

No money was found in Britain although an investigation involving the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), the Metropolitan Police, the Home Office and the Financial Services Authority found traces of $1.3 billion which had passed through the City.

More than $100 million will be returned to the Abacha family by the banks in Switzerland because it can be proved that the money was removed from the country before General Abacha came to power.

The settlement leaves more than $2 billion of Abacha's loot unaccounted for, with little prospect of its ever being recovered. The settlement came after the SFO and the Home Office helped to gather a huge body of evidence to support the Nigerian Government's legal action.



Trurl
GANDY - Cross the i's and dot the t's
Gandalf --

Nice contest. But, what is the prize for the two runngers-up?

"and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf !!!"

Do they get to choose the metal?

I know of other contests where the prize has been a diamond shaped pear, or a plover's egg the size of an emerald.

I believe we are already winners, just for having this site.
Trurl
Contest guess
$$$$$302.70$$$$$

WHY? Prices are going to drift in current range for a while( end of May? )
timbervision
@Joanne, @Belgian
Joanne, thanks for the name, I will look to see if he's on re-runs tonight. As for the $600 level at which John Embry recommends shifting from mining shares to physical gold, I suspect that his estimate is based simply on the diminishing leverage that mines afford as the price of gold increases. It is not the same thing that my question to Belgian was trying to clarify. If I am understanding FOA, Belgian and others, it is probably unlikely that we will ever see gold of $600, rather it will decouple from the paper market, which includes mining shares,long before. Gold mining shares will fall and the POG will climb to much, much higher elevations. However, read Belgian's reply to me, where he says it is "Impossible to predict at what point into the POG run, that minevaluations and POG will decouple and not relate anymore !!!

Belgian. Thank you for your propelling reply. I was wondering if there has ever been a similar or comparable decoupling event before in history, or is this an unprecedented event?

Thanks,
t

Trurl
Revised contest guess
Revised contest guess
$$$$$303.1$$$$$

I see I thought too long...what a moral. Prices should still just drift in this current range for a while yet.
sector
Inflation?...What Inflation!....It's Only Those Gold Bugs AGAIN!
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000027270apr17.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2DbusinessApril 17, 2002
CalPERS to Raise Health Premiums 25%
Move would sharply increase costs for many of the state's government workers, as well as retirees.
LA Times Headlines
By DON LEE, TIMES STAFF WRITER
SACRAMENTO -- In a dramatic sign of health-insurance cost increases ahead for employers and workers across the country, the California Public Employees' Retirement System is expected today to approve a stunning 25% increase in health insurance premiums next year.

The move could cause coverage disruption for tens of thousands of Californians and sharply raise the out-of-pocket costs for many of the state's 1.2 million government workers and their families as well as retirees.

The premium increase, approved Tuesday by a key panel of CalPERS, would be the largest for the pension fund since at least the late 1980s. It was a stark acknowledgment that even a powerful buyer like CalPERS--the nation's second-largest purchaser of health insurance--was helpless in the face of spiraling health-care costs. "Looking forward to next year, it's even worse," said CalPERS' board president, William D. Crist, noting that he expected the panel's recommendations to be accepted by the full board today.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each time the Fed tries to sell the no inflation party-line, they undermine their credibility. Now even rank and file government woker-bees can wave their pay stubs and show inflation.

BTW the insurers aren't paying provider claims either...so the providers just jack up the per-claim charges to extract more from each.

I just had a non-contrast spinal MRI that was billed to the insurance carrier at $2,250. The doc got only $338 and wants $558 more from me...on top of my already-paid deductable.

There is a melt-down in the health insurance and medical delivery business going on behind the scenes. Good doctors are disgusted. Insurance companies are being squeezed because of huge losses in their premium income due to massive layoffs as a result of Paul O'Neill's recession that never was.

Here in Florida things are a little better than in some areas but not by much.

In addition to Black Blade's admonitions to get gold, food supplies and get out of debt, I would add to this list:

Get to know two doctors...a GP and a general surgeon...talk about cash up front at the time of needed service [Via a letter agreement]...they will be all ears.


Horatio
Mining Web 4/17/2002
Chris Thompson
Chairman
Gold Fields

"If gold gets way above its replacement price � we'd hedge it!"
auenboy
gold guess
$$$311.10$$$$
Because I want to beleive in the break-out when we least expect it, no reasons just power thru.
Horatio
Durban
y: David McKay
Posted: 2002/04/17 Wed 19:00 | � Miningweb 1997-2002
JOHANNESBURG � Durban Roodepoort Deep [NASDAQ:DROOY] is set to
report lower than expected earnings for the March quarter following seismic
events at Hartebeestfontein, a major component of DRD's North West
operations which accounted for 43 percent of the company's output in the
December quarter. Chief executive Mark Wellesley-Wood said production
problems were compounded by logistical difficulties associated with opening
up old parts of the company's mines, a decision motivated by the stronger
rand gold price.

One analyst said production problems at Hartebeestfontein could result in a
15 cents or 7 percent reduction in quarter-on-quarter share earnings. DRD
reported share earnings of 39.5 cents in the December quarter. DRD's share
price was not much influenced, however: it gained about 6 percent to trade at
R42.20 during the last hour on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on
Wednesday (17 April). This was despite news that a fire had also broken out
at the No 6 level in Hartebeestfontein, one of the shafts being reopened.
timbervision
POG contest
$$$$309.40$$$$

Argentinian tears, coming, soon, to a country near you. I don't think that the cabal will let the price of gold rise and stay very much above 300, but I'm prepared to imagine that it could be sustained at 309.40. There still isn't much general awareness of gold so the groundswell of support may be still a while away.
Yellow Jacket
Price Guess
$$$$$302.4$$$$$
Wont move that much this week unless something unexpected happens.
Horatio
Argentina on Silver Standard ?
Hi O'Silver HE PRESCRIPTION FOR ARGENTINE RECOVERY

Hugo Salinas Price

The Government orders the opening of the Argentine Mint to free coinage
of silver. (1)

This means that any person or corporation, Argentine or foreign, can
deliver its silver of .999 purity or better, to the Mint for coining into silver
ounces. The silver tendered may be of lesser purity, in which case a
discount will be made to cover the cost of refining to the necessary
purity; the discount will be reflected in the lower number of ounces to be
returned to the owner of the silver. The coinage will be free of cost to the owner of silver.

The silver is to be coined in one troy ounce pieces, which will be the monetary metallic
standard, and which will circulate in parallel with the established r�gime of fiduciary
(irredeemable paper) money. The troy ounces will bear no stamped nominal value.

The Mint, or the Central Bank, will determine the floating value of these one troy ounce coins,
which will be expressed in units of the circulating paper money issued by the Central Bank.
The determination of the floating value will be done by the Central Bank periodically, 1.
according to variations in the international price of silver; 2, according to the value of the paper
unit of money issued by the Central Bank, in international markets and 3. according to the
degree of overvaluation which the Central Bank may consider prudent.

The floating value may rise in terms of paper money units, but this value will on no account be
diminished once established.

Considerations regarding the Banking System and silver coin

There will be an immediate authorization of:

Sight deposit accounts. These accounts will not pay interest. The banks which open these
accounts, will act only as warehouses, and they will charge a small fee for their warehousing
service. All coins deposited, must be maintained physically in vaults of the banks which
receive silver on deposit at sight.

When the amount of silver in circulation shall have reached an adequate level with regard to
the paper money in circulation, there will be an authorization to open:

Time deposit accounts. These accounts will pay interest in silver. No deposits in silver will be
allowed for a term under 90 days.

The bank which opens these accounts, will have to maintain a physical supply of silver of not
less than 40% of the silver received as time deposits.

Granting of loans in silver. For their account and at their risk, any bank receiving silver time
deposits may grant loans denominated in silver, for a term not in excess of 90 days. Such
loans will not be renewable. The total of loans granted in silver, may not exceed at any
moment, 60% of the total amount of silver received in time deposits.

Considerations regarding taxation and the silver coin:

All profits of those who use the silver coin, which may be attributed to a rise in its floating
value, will be tax free.

********

On the foundation of these measures, and without alteration of their intention, the course of
events will suggest additional incidental measures guided by convenience and prudence, that
will allow for the establishment of a solid and lasting economic recovery which will produce
results in a short time: social stability, optimism with regard to the future and economic
prosperity.

There is no other viable road to the economic and social reconstruction of a nation devastated
by the instability intrinsic to irredeemable paper money.

The return to real money, silver, complemented with paper money redeemable in silver, is
essential for the reconstruction of those countries which have collapsed into total crisis, as
well as for the salvation of those inevitably approaching such a crisis. In due course
redeemable paper money will be issued, but this will take place at a later stage still distant at
this point, when financial conditions may allow it and after a clean-up of the present financial
structure takes place.

For international relations, eventually it will be necessary to discard the Central Bank use as
reserves, of irredeemable fiduciary (paper) money of any another country, and to demand
exclusively gold as a reserve asset. This situation will come about sooner or later, as a result
of a new international monetary order.

What is indispensable at this time, is formally to graft silver onto the national monetary
system of fiduciary (paper) money, and this can only be done by granting a floating value to a
silver coin which will not be stamped with a fixed value in terms of that fiduciary money.

It is entirely predictable that in time, and after a great number of events which it is impossible
to visualize individually, fiduciary irredeemable money will disappear, and when all is said and
done, only silver coins will remain as the basis of the monetary and financial system,
complemented with fiduciary (paper) money redeemable in silver. We do not need to know in
advance all details with regard to this transformation. We know, because all history
demonstrates the fact and theory confirms it, that the result of using silver will be stability,
tranquility, optimism and its perennial concomitant, economic prosperity, and that as the use
of silver is introduced into the national economy, further changes will take place which will
result in the complete elimination of irredeemable fiduciary (paper) money.

From the very instant when free coinage of silver ounces with a floating value is announced, a
wave of optimism and hope will rise up among the people, because this measure means the
introduction of quality into the monetary system, an element that has been absent for many
decades. The quality of silver, will spill over into the paper money and increase confidence in
it, providing much needed relief in the present situation.

Prognosis for Argentina: if it follows this prescription, a complete recovery in a short time.


Hugo Salinas Price
hsalinas@elektra.com.mx

19 April 2002


(1) Note: The actual minting can also be carried out at any mint in the world through a
contract.
mikal
Price Guessing Contest
$$$$$$$$298.80$$$$$$$$....................................As the metals, energies, CRB index, & long bond yields rose once more, the "almighty dollar" fell to a new low today, plunging well below the Head and Shoulders Top neckline at 117.50. A $300 June contract close on Friday, or higher, will be fought by the usual Exchange Stabilization Fund(ESF) and bullion bank selling- increasingly desperate to avoid a premature gold breakout, they must hinder the growing appetite of those hungrily feeding on news of $300+ POG............. Impending are the stock options expirations. Now doesn't this merit extra loving attention from funds and the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT-Plunge Protection Team)?
auric
$$$$$$299.5$$$$$$$ Gold Price Guess
$$$$$$299.5$$$$$$$cabal must keep price below $300 to show their domination!
Gandalf the White
WOWSERS !!!!! Goldfly LIVES !!!!! <;-)
He has been getting ready to enter BOTH CONTESTS and warming up with WIN pins.
<;-)
Black Blade
US F-16 Fighter Bombs Canadians

Just on the news, an American F-16 dropped a laser-guided bomb on Canadian troops in Afghanistan, Reports are that there are many dead. Looks like a bad situation developing.

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTJust to HELP the remaining "PLANNERS" in the last minute rush toward the GOLD prize in this contest -- I am dotting some "i's" and crossing some "tees" ! <;-) Tick Tock !!

GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 555.5 $$$$ A Canadian (4/17/02; 17:12:48MT msg#: 73651

$$$$ 352.0 $$$$ techbull.... (4/17/02; 08:33:26MT msg#: 73610

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (04/17/02; 19:58:46MT msg#: 73667

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ Basil (4/17/02; 13:33:10MT msg#: 73627

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ BLUENOSE (4/17/02; 13:01:12MT msg#: 73624

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ turkey hunter (4/17/02; 16:02:45MT msg#: 73646

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 311.1 $$$$ auenboy (04/17/02; 20:55:14MT msg#: 73677

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 309.4 $$$$ timbervision (04/17/02; 21:23:07MT msg#: 73679

$$$$ 309.1 $$$$ G$ (4/17/02; 11:07:04MT msg#: 73620

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Cumber (4/17/02; 09:39:08MT msg#: 73615

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.4 $$$$ The Hoople (4/17/02; 13:23:27MT msg#: 73626
$$$$ 306.3 $$$$ cwa (4/17/02; 14:35:39MT msg#: 73635

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.8 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (4/17/02; 15:40:05MT msg#: 73640

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.3 $$$$ CoBra(too) (4/17/02; 15:19:39MT msg#: 73638

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393

$$$$ 304.8 $$$$ Yukon (4/17/02; 15:18:31MT msg#: 73637

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.2 $$$$ luckypierre (4/17/02; 15:28:04MT msg#: 73639

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540

$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456
$$$$ 303.1 $$$$ Trurl (04/17/02; 20:36:58MT msg#: 73674

$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392
$$$$ 302.8 $$$$ Nomad (4/17/02; 19:39:04MT msg#: 73664
$$$$ 302.7 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (4/17/02; 19:00:39MT msg#: 73661
$$$$ 302.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (4/17/02; 13:34:25MT msg#: 73628
$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451
$$$$ 302.4 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (04/17/02; 21:38:16MT msg#: 73680
$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490


$$$$ 302.1 $$$$ Au-some (4/17/02; 18:53:17MT msg#: 73659

$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.7 $$$$ Scarab (4/17/02; 18:38:39MT msg#: 73656

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 301.0 $$$$ Gimli_ (04/16/02; 20:43:05MT msg#: 73573

$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.2 $$$$ Bound Spirit (4/17/02; 18:23:38MT msg#: 73655

$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426
$$$$ 299.8 $$$$ Guided (4/17/02; 13:44:12MT msg#: 73631
$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.5 $$$$ auric (04/17/02; 22:03:57MT msg#: 73683
$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 299.0 $$$$ FluorideCommie (4/17/02; 17:21:53MT msg#: 73652

$$$$ 298.8 $$$$ mikal (04/17/02; 21:57:25MT msg#: 73682

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.4 $$$$ Boxman (4/17/02; 16:38:30MT msg#: 73649

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436
$$$$ 291.1 $$$$ 4gold (4/17/02; 04:30:37MT msg#: 73599

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- A one ounce SILVER Canadian Maple Leaf <;-) Thanks Sir Trurl!! (BUT this is a guessing contest and a runner-up prize is usually less than the top prize ! SOOOO guess which metal the Leaf would be ?)
<;-)
GuyGold
ARGENTINEAN "TEARS"
$$$$$$302.00$$$$$
I am a newcomer to this gold game, but gut feel that there has been too much hype lately about an imminent jump in gold prices, thereby attracting much speculative interest in paper gold. Barring any unforseen incident by Friday to cause a surge in gold, I think the big boys will keep the price flat or maybe a little lower to keep contracts from being profitable. Someday it will break, but I don't think it will be by Friday.
Pizz
Sierra Madre
Re: Governments,free lunches, and payment.

Yes, there are a few in government that know exactly what's going on with inflation. They're there for the ride and they know who's paying.

My thoughts were more in line with the situation with Argentina, and my thoughts could have been better expressed by saying:

"Governemnts don't understand that they may not have the opportunity to pay for the "free lunch" over time without realizing that the entire bill may come due rather quickly with very adverse consequences."

As far as our elected officials knowing that deficit spending that is monetized by the FED is inflationary? Most think it's nothing more than taking out a loan to buy a car.
It'll just be paid over time. "What do you mean we can't afford it? We're the richest nation in the world? Hey Al, lower those rates a bit will ya, I want the SUV for 395 a month".

Also, I think you might be giving too much credit to our elected elite for brains, education, and common sense (yes I realize most at the higher levels are dishonest), keep in mind that we tend to both underestimate ourselves on this forum and overestimate our elected officials. The level and depth of the thoughts and ideas presented on this forum are advance degree material, form, diction, and spelling (smile) aside.

Thanks for the comeback and the opportunity to clarify my thoughts, assuming I haven't fogged the mirror more.

Have a great day tomorrow Sierra, it looks like I'll be eating a bit of crow for lunch over my IBM post a couple days ago. Heck of a time for a stock to do what it should. Now what's holding JPM up other than the government's anti-gravity machine?

Pizz

(Go Mariners - 4 to 3 bottom of sixth for 10 in a row on the road)

milos
The stars are lined up
$$$$$326.0$$$$$ Bush is a goldbug but he don't know it..yet
Maiden Fan
$$$$$300.7$$$$$
I'm guessing this price for no better reason than the fact that there's a $0.50 gap between $300.6 and $301.1 available.
Waverider
Puplava: Wednesday Market Wrap-Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmSnippit:
"Mr. Greenspan's Testimony on Capitol Hill
Maybe it's a mood swing, or maybe it's just the news, but market sentiment shifted once again on Wednesday. Yesterday there was a pending earnings recovery; today it was just the reverse. Stock prices pulled back midday as more corporate earnings reports took away some of the delusion of profit miracles. Mr. Greenspan testimony on Capitol Hill put a damper on the robust economy theory. Although inventory levels for business have continued to be drawn down, the economy faces "new challenges" for growth in Mr. Greenspan's view. One of those challenges is rising oil prices that could have far reaching consequences. Rising energy prices would spill over into all sectors of the economy raising costs at a time of economic fragility. The other concern for the Fed is declining stock prices. Both oil and stock prices seem to be exerting a major influence on the economy at the moment. The Fed Chairman said, "A price hike that drove oil prices well above existing levels for an appreciable period of time would likely have far-reaching consequences. The decline in the stock prices over the past months may also be a drag on spending, particularly for upper-income households."

Trade Deficit Worsening
The U.S. trade deficit for February worsened. The February deficit was the widest in 10 months with Americans� appetites growing for foreign cars, consumer goods and business equipment. The trade deficit came in at $31.5 billion, an increase from the $28.2 billion in January. Economists had estimated a deficit of $29 billion. It seems the economy has improved over the last quarter with a greater amount of spending going into foreign goods. Imports are expected to keep rising after spending rose in the fourth quarter. The government reported the economy grew at a 5% annual rate in the first quarter of the year. How that figure is arrived at, nobody knows. It probably entails a good deal of seasonal variation, hedonic indexing, and other methods of statistical maneuvering.

The Technology Sector
While earnings could be hypothetically improving, the markets could be traumatized by Fed rate hikes, which could hurt the earnings recovery. Higher interest rates make future earnings worth less since they are discounted by a higher rate of interest. There are too many uncertainties for the markets to digest from the events in the Middle East to the accompanying rising oil prices. We may be entering a time where the markets go sideways, propped up by the government, until a large enough rogue wave hits that sends the market down into the depths of a real bear market. Today's graph of the bull market of the late 70's may be reminiscent of times to come. Stock prices are definitely overvalued and there are no new catalysts to drive a new bull markets at the moment.

In the meantime, a new bull market in gold and silver equities is now entering its second year. The Amex gold index is up 56% year-to-date, and is now up 94% over the last 52 weeks. If that can't be described as a new bull market trend, then what is? The same thing is happening for oil and just about everything in the energy sector. Oil and gold were again on a tear today as money kept pouring into the sector. The markets experienced very aggressive buying of gold and energy.

Waverider: As always Puplava provides a succinct and complete overview of todays market activity. Cheers!
milos
Horatio - Argentine silver
Is a scam to round up local silver for the CB, probably US inspired for the shorts in COMEX. Hope the locals don't fall for it.
sstins
ARGENTINEAN "TEARS"
$$$$$$303.60$$$$$

8,752 was already taken.

Has the BOE ordered any of the "ABC's of Gold" books?
Econoclast
***************Argentine Tears**************
There are a number of important truths that we can and should learn from the recent plight of the Argentines. The economic events that have befallen them, lay bare for all who care to look, the dark-underbelly of the global political economy, which is built on the promises of the fiat-banking system. The Argentines have just experienced the truth that these promises can and will be repudiated when necessary, to keep "the system" afloat.
After the large multi-national banking corporations, who knew the score and what was coming, funneled billions of dollars out of the country, the government froze the accounts of the people and raided the pension funds. They simultaneously converted accounts from dollars to pesos and then proceeded to devalue the pesos. By aiding and abetting this "money fraud" on a national scale, the Argentine government exposed another important truth: When the chips fall, politicians and governments will hang out to dry the people that they supposedly represent. They exposed the fact that their true allegiance is to the global fiat money machine.
But it can't happen here can it?
It already has. In 1933, FDR forced the United States off of the constitutional gold standard, and confiscated our ancestor's gold, before revaluing it upwards and delivering it to the same multi-national banking interests who are still active, and whose names surfaced once again during the recent Argentine scenario. It is still happening here, but through a stealthy and slow process.
Inflation is currently a "very tame and acceptable" 3.6% right now.
Why do we find it acceptable that the money-masters can devalue our currency at the rate of 3.6% a year? That is more than a bank will pay in interest on a deposit! The constitutional definition of a dollar has been perverted, and is slowly and insidiously being devalued to 0; it's current intrinsic worth.
In addition to the recent plight of the Argentines, recent history is littered with the discarded promises of the world's banking/government axis.
This leads to another important truth that is visible to all who care to put the stories together and examine the "big picture". Whether it happens overnight, or over generations, repudiation of the fiat banking system's "promise to pay" happens over and over again because we, the citizens of all the countries of the world, let it happen through our willingness to trust and be deceived by a money system that few want to understand.
If you see an acquaintance continually break promises to others for their own benefit, and you know their actions are cheapening the promises they have made to you, would you continue to trust them and give them all of your faith, all of your money? That sounds crazy! Yet that is exactly what we do whenever we store our excess productivity, the fruits of our labor, as journal entries in a database that spits out a piece of paper with some ink on it every month which then gets mailed to us. Or for the "old-fashioned" among us, when we save those colorful little pieces of paper with some ink on them under the mattress.
The tears of the Argentines show to all, the folly of placing our trust in a system, with entities that time and time again, have been shown to be untrustworthy.
We can, however, take some steps to protect ourselves and this is what we must learn from the tears of the Argentines. We must remember the effort that went towards "earning" that little piece of paper with ink on it. And we must remember what was done to the Argentines when their elected representatives said that the banks would not redeem the promises made. Then we must decide if we want to store, or save, our excess effort that wasn't needed to pay the bills and survive today, with an entity that has openly broken its promise to keep that excess effort safe for us for the day when we want or need to use it.
We all have our own wants and needs in life, and must search out and make our own economic decisions. We can trade our excess pieces of paper for the things that we want or need right now. We can trade them for the things that we will want or need in the future, thereby lessening the need to possess a future medium of exchange. The problem with that is that some of the things we will need in the future are perishable and will not last if purchased now. In other cases, we might not know what we will want or need in the future. In these cases, we will need to save our excess productivity in a medium that cannot be devalued, and is not dependent upon someone else's "promise to pay". Humanity has experimented with many different ways of doing this. For roughly 5000 years, different civilizations throughout the world have found strength and truth in their medium of exchange when their excess productivity was stored in gold. Gold's weakness as a medium of exchange is really a weakness in human nature. Human greed has always tried to find ways to achieve the dreams of the alchemist and unnaturally, or falsely, add to the supply of gold. But as a means of storing one's excess productivity, gold has proven itself to be a sound and unassailable savings and wealth preservation vehicle throughout history.
If only the Argentines had not been deceived of that truth.


Black Blade
Oil wars: The Middle East is shaking a volatile market
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,542-268353,00.html
Snippit:

After a period in which oil prices had fallen and assisted the process by which the global economy recovered from the shock of September 11, they are once again moving sharply upwards. The predictions in some quarters that the price might hit $50 per barrel seem excessive, but motorists are nervous. The fighting in the West Bank, prompting calls in the Arab world for a new oil embargo, brings back memories of the devastating rise in prices after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Iraq has halted all exports for 30 days, causing a spike in prices last week. The overthrow and rapid return of Hugo Ch�vez in Venezuela has increased uncertainty about quotas in the world's third largest producer. And President Bush's renewed call for more drilling in Alaska to ensure American supplies suggests that the White House also sees trouble ahead.


Black Blade: Economic recovery is in doubt � especially so if energy prices climb higher.


Econoclast
$$$$$$$$$300.9$$$$$$$$$$
The more reasons that gold should be moving up, the more that it will be pushed down. The range, however, is getting tight and there is not much room on the downside. Any significant move from now on will only be up.
Pippin
AngloGold also sounds alarm on gold supply
http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020417181124215N210777&set_id=60Quote
London - Gold mining companies have warned that supplies of the precious metal are poised to fall sharply but analysts believe the world has more than enough gold to prevent significant price spikes.

The latest producer to sound the alarm bell that the industry was running out of gold faster than it could replace it was world number two miner AngloGold, which predicted that the big discoveries of the past 20 years would run dry.

"Over the next 10 to 15 years, new mine supply is likely to be neutral or negative than it is to increase as it did in the past 15 years," AngloGold chief executive Bobby Godsell said on the sidelines of a mining conference in Australia yesterday.

Godsell's admonition was the latest in a string of industry warning lights over the prospects of future gold supplies, which ran at an estimated 2 595 tons last year.

Mined output is seen falling to around 2 570 tons this year, with no short-term sign of an immediate pick-up, while jewellery demand alone is running at about 3 000 tons, according to industry experts.

An industry-backed survey released by Toronto-based Beacon Group Advisors this month even warned that supplies would plummet by nearly 30 percent by the end of the decade unless prices rallied from current levels of around $300 a troy ounce.

Some miners, including Gold Fields of South Africa, have even called this conservative.

"The gold price has to go at least $25 an ounce higher, stay there and look sustainable before we see people dusting off mining projects. The supply side is probably the best support the market has," said Martin Potts, a mining analyst at Williams de Broe in London.

Gold prices have been supported this year by the prospect that the existing gap between mined supply and demand will grow as output from leading mature producers South Africa and the US levels off and declines.

A decision by the same miners to curb the amount of their nuggets sold into forward markets to guarantee their income has also been instrumental in dragging gold above the key $300 an ounce level this year from lows of $250-60 in 2001.

But not all analysts are entirely won over by the doom and gloom predicted by the industry, with sceptics pointing to other readily available sources of gold, notably central banks.

"Supply shortages aren't really an issue in the gold market," said Howard Patten, metals analyst at Barclays Capital. "Even if there is a chipping away of supply from producers there is a very strong chance that other sources will step in, the main source being the central banks."

The world's biggest central banks, led by the US and Germany, sit on about 32 000 tons of gold in officially declared reserves. - Reuters
EndQuote

What I dont exactly understand is this sentence :
<>
Do they know better than the miners, who say that the reserves would go dry?

Econoclast
Ink and Paper
That is the source of the "supply" in the current gold market. Sell, sell, sell. It's just ink and paper. There's more than enough paper to cover any demand spike in gold. It's ludicrous, but that's our world. I wonder when I'm going to have to start eating paper pork and drinking paper orange juice.
DOWNUNDER
$$$$$$$ 310. 50
GATA feeling a "surprise" event will occur sooner rather than later.Hopefully by this W/End! :) I have physical G&S plus large position in gold shares-- the shares are all up today here in OZ with DRD(Drooy) closing @ A$7.05.(Paid 2.6)

Thanks to all for some great contributions.
DOWNUNDER
WHOOPS - - - Forgot $ all round
"Guess" is ---$$$$$$ 310.50 $$$$$$$$$$
Shanti
Another sign.....

$$$$$$$$$$303,3$$$$$$$$$$$

Higher Canadian interest rates seems to be the trigger of
recognizing inflation, who will be the next.............?

Shanti !!
Black Blade
Words From Gold Fields Chief Executive Chris Thompson

Words From Gold Fields Chief Executive Chris Thompson -

"Simply by buying assets, the major gold producers are camouflaging the fact that there is a shortage of reserves," said Thompson. "Existing gold reserves are simply being shifted from one pocket to another and it's really a case of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic." He said the top 10 gold producers had reserves of between 10,000 and 12,000 tons, which were "being burned up at an enormous rate". To highlight the dwindling production, Thompson said South African new mine production had peaked at 1,000 tons a year in 1970, fallen back to 428 tons in 2000 and dropped again to 393.5 tons last year. "It will probably go down again from here; in South Africa its almost all a question of declining grades," he said.

Black Blade: These words keep reverberating over and over. I have discussed this over and over in the past. Yesterday. Booby "Goldsellforward" Godsell, CEO of AngloGold said essentially the same thing. Anglo has been desperately trying to either acquire another miner to feed the hedge book � and having failed that, are now unwinding hedges. The day of the hedger is over and any miner that doesn't get out soon � very soon, will likely suffer badly as a result. Remember Ashanti, Cambior, Emperor mines, etc.

Black Blade
$$$$$$ 303.30 $$$$$$$$$$


Why $303.30? I don't see a lot of movement yet (by Friday close). After the investing public looks over the corporate earnings reports and brush off the dirt (Pro Forma, operating earnings, wishful thinking, etc) they may soon wake up from their sleep walk toward the abyss and realize that the awaited "economic recovery" is nothing more than an illusion. The rise in POG today and tomorrow may be muted until then.
Chrusos
Argentinian tears - IMF solution
http://www.capitalstool.com/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=11⊤ic=56Marks commentary never ceases to give me at least one belly laugh per day - here's the latest

"The International Monetary Fund's mission in Argentina reports some progress, IMF Managing Director Horst Kohler said Wednesday ahead of this week's spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Kohler said the Argentine federal and provincial governments must "face reality, pull together, and agree on an economic reform program." Kohler said he is deeply concerned about the "social hardship" of the poor in Argentina. The country's problems teach several lessons, he said. "Borrowing .... breeds disasters" if it's not accompanied by increased external revenues. The world needs more trade, more globalization, more integration, and more effective social safety nets, Kohler said."

Mark's Translation:

It is too late to reverse the effects of excessive borrowing and speculation in Argentina. Therefore, all other countries must pitch into the collection plate. What the world needs now is more integration and safety nets by using an even greater number of derivatives, swaps, and exchanges in order to offload risk into Outer Space

Good one hey!
ProGold
$$$$303.4$$$$
Why..the ME is heating up and for Wall St the heat is on. I see the contract price slightly higher by Friday.
Pippin
Changes in official reserves statistics (April 2002)
http://www.gold.org/finalgold/html/index.html?pageBookmark=1&domain=value&content=../finalgold/d_value/sd_reserve_assets/statistics/html/home.html&menuPath=OFFICIAL%20SECTOR%20GOLD/StatisticsThe URL above leads to the World Gold Council's site. Figures are included in an April statistic, but are related to the months of Dec-Jan-Feb.

What impressed me was the amount of gold apparently acquired by China in December through trading : 105 TONS!

Philippines seem to be also a regular, also lots smaller, buyer. Switzerland's unfortunate sales are also mentionned.

There are two distinct lines for "trading" aned "sales/purchases". Does anybody know the difference ?
Waverider
USAGold and Nigeria
http://www.gamji.com/MK - you may find the attached story interesting about Switzerland returning embezzled state funds to Nigeria - there's also some interesting links for background information. Cheers!
Waverider
USAGold: Nigeria - BBC Direct Link
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_1935000/1935646.stmOops...here's the direct link for the previous post...
Topaz
$200 mil to promote Gold........"jewellery"
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29382501&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&Ho boy!
The not insubstantal weight of the WGC has been seconded to prove gold is nothing but a Barbarous relic..... BUT it can be crafted into pretty trinkets.
tacky....TackY......TACKY!

BB
Guess again.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(No Subject)

$$$$$$$$$$$302.35$$$$$$$$$$$$

Seems to be a fair amount over the 300 level. It seems to be a little sluggish to move right up to 310. Maybe the war is already priced into it. It's a slow creeper steadily up. I guess it's "my guess". -GR2
Canuck
@ BB
Hey buddy,

I think I see Shanti at 303.3 just before you.
Canuck
$$$$$$$$$301.6$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I feel Comex still has to defend the 302 barrier. As soon as shorts begin to cover the next threshold is 308.

I hope Invisible Hand wins!!!!!!
Black Blade
$$$$$$ 304.40$$$$$$$$$$

Oh....OK, then I raise you $1.10 to $304.40. (For the same reasons).
LeSin
$$$$$$$$$$$$$- $666.00 - $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Just a tad lower than Cavan Man
Cheers
"S"

Black Blade
Fund managers aren't cheering
http://www.iht.com/articles/55021.html

Snippit:

There was a nice rally in many of the world's stock markets Tuesday, but according to the people who are paid to know, equities are unlikely to show large gains from current levels in the coming year. Merrill Lynch Co.'s monthly Fund Manager Survey for April indicated that corporate earnings do not seem to be growing quickly enough to allow for a strong advance from current stock-market levels.
.

Black Blade: Yeah, I know.
Golden Bear
(No Subject)
$$$$$303.0$$$$$
Slotting into one of the few places left...June contract seems rangebound for the last session of the contract, unless something dramatic occurs - Greensham ordering the FED to start buying Au aggressively - yeah right!
Jin-Yin
$$$$300.8
Should come under more of the usual pressure, short of a really big disaster. Hope springs eternal.
Jin-Yin
$$$$300.8$$$$
Sorry.
LeSin
New Happy Pastel Colour Money Alternative for When (Not If) the Greenback $$$$ Crashes Down to Earth
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/droke/droke041802.html
Part of C. Droke's article:

Dollar Bills, Bulls and Deficits
Clif Droke
April 18, 2002

"In a shocking revelation, the U.S. Treasury has announced it will soon issue a new paper currency. The Wall Street Journal of March 19 reported that the Treasury will maintain the design of the old currency but will introduce "subtle colors." This announcement coincides with the dollar near all-time record strength against a basket of other major international currencies. So what does this portend for the future of the U.S. Dollar? Devaluation! There can be no other explanation for the introduction of a colored currency, which will represent a bifurcated dollar policy of a domestic-use-only dollar for Americans and a foreign dollar overseas. The U.S. version of the currency would be valid only within U.S. borders. It also is a rather convenient way of driving out hoarded cash from among U.S. citizens who try to circumvent the banking establishment. This is the second time the Treasury has attempted a major overhaul of the domestic dollar. The last time was in 1996 when a major redesign of the actual engraving began and was completed in 1999 featuring water marks, security threads, altered portraits, and a script of metallic ink at the bottom of one side of the bills. When run through a scanner utilized in processing checks by a bank, it reveals a hidden code number which allows cash to be traceable. Comments Lawrence Patterson of Criminal Politics magazine, "There has been more manipulation of the money than you can imagine!" The colored money is due out in 12 months or so according to the WSJ, but may be introduced sooner. Advises Patterson, "Convert cash hordes in advance, or lose it!"
- -------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -------- ------------ -----------

So many sound & valid reasons abound in support of physical GOLD ownership. The more gold coins & bullion one holds in physical safe-keeping the better one sleeps. In the world of money, finance, banking & savings: It is like adopting the highest moral ground of integrity & credibility & owning IT. Gold Get you some & come to the mountain top.

Cheers "S"
Humble Pie
Gold Price picking contest
$$$$$$300.10$$$$$$$ The cabal is losing their grip.
Golden Bear
***************Argentine Tears*****************
Man in general learns through repeated doses of pain, whether physical, emotional or financial, and the Argentines are the latest chapter of a sad and sorry book that has spanned thousands of years. Yet few are those willing to open this book and absorb the wisdom of its pages.

As long as disaster strikes someone else, the lesson does not register to most as there is no physical or emotional connection to another's suffering. The warnings are not heeded and the same mistakes are repeated until that searing pain is so unbearable that one will avoid it at all costs in the future. This is what the Argentines experience today, and any Japanese who have no gold tomorrow... and the rest of civilization who chooses not to see that what they think has worth, is really worthless.

It is a rare breed of individual who can see the suffering of others and learn from it - it seems that this forum has many souls who fit this description and I am proud to be amongst you and learn from your collective wisdom. I myself learnt through much pain and suffering to reach current understanding.

Regards,

Golden Bear.
YGM
Gee the Treasury Bank Account Looks Sickly....
US Treasury balances at Fed fell on April 16


Wednesday April 17, 4:13 PM EDT

WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

April 16 April 15
Fed acct 3.680 6.103
Tax/loan note acct 0.492 5.181
Cash balance 4.172 11.283

National debt, subject to limit 5,938.371 5,949.975
Treasury said there were $10 million in individual refunds
and $577 million in corporate income tax refunds issued.


YGM
Gee the Treasury Bank Account Looks Sickly....
A little more readable....That's 3.68 Billion Left in acc't...US Treasury balances at Fed fell on April 16


Wednesday April 17, 4:13 PM EDT

WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve, based on the Treasury Department's latest budget statement (billions of dollars, except where noted):

April 16 / April 15
Fed acct 3.680 / 6.103
Tax/loan note acct 0.492 / 5.181
Cash balance 4.172 / 11.283

National debt, subject to limit / 5,938.371 / 5,949.975
Treasury said there were $10 million in individual refunds
and $577 million in corporate income tax refunds issued.


compwiz4u
Gold Contest
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]waclyymy[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]$$$$$$304.90$$$$$$$

Slowly but surely this administration is letting gold move up. I believe they do not want it to run away as that would be too destabilizing, but check out the chart. A change was clearly evident in early 2001 as we spiked up in April, then we had periodic steps up to higher highs in Oct & Jan 2002. Now it looks like another high around 315 will occur within a few weeks. It must be very difficult holding gold back as it wants to get back to its much higher trend level from which it has been suppressed for years, probably even back to after the the crash of 1987 under Papa Bush's Administration. The Clinton Administration took the suppression to absurd levels, thus the Washington Agreement. Anyway, this will be a long term bull market so just sit back and enjoy the rushes from the quick spikes up and don't despair when there are corrections. 10-15 years from now we will all be amazed at the price level as we were when the stock market peaked after its multi-year run.

Finally, many thanks to Michael J. Kosares for hosting this site, the best gold forum on the web.
Hipplebeck
Brave New World
http://cs5.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD45B1412%2D99D6%2D41BD%2DAA44%2D2A9C636ED1C4%7D&siteid=compuserveCompare what the New World Order has in store for you compared to what Hugo Salinas recommends.
Which way will the people choose?
Gandalf the White
ATTN: "GR2" AND "Black Blade" !!!!
PRIOR Guesses !!!BB -- STRIKE TWO -- BOTH were taken before you !
Missed it by that much < > !!! <;-)
Try again.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (4/18/02; 04:11:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 73710)
$$$$$$$$$$$302.35$$$$$$$$$$$$
====
MUST be in Tenths of a whole $ --- Like $302.4 or $304.3!!
BUT check the list above and see if that new GUESS is "available" !!!
Thanks
Max Rabbitz
$$$$305.2$$$$
The current average of all guesses is $408. Throwing out the 3 most exuberant estimates leaves $307.2. Then, because a number of posters are known to favor adult beverages, I subtracted $2 to obtain what I believe is the cumulative average of all wisdom.

Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTThings are "heating-up" and the Guesses are FLYING IN !!
Thanks DOWNUNDER !
Please look at this LISTING and see if someone has BEAT you to the NUMBER !
I TOLD YOU SO, BB <;-)
(NOW, off to slay some more ORCS ! Catch you later.
===

GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 666.0 $$$$ LeSin (4/18/02; 05:29:53MT msg#: 73714

$$$$ 555.5 $$$$ A Canadian (4/17/02; 17:12:48MT msg#: 73651

$$$$ 352.0 $$$$ techbull.... (4/17/02; 08:33:26MT msg#: 73610

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (04/17/02; 19:58:46MT msg#: 73667

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ milos (04/17/02; 23:37:55MT msg#: 73689

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ Basil (4/17/02; 13:33:10MT msg#: 73627

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ BLUENOSE (4/17/02; 13:01:12MT msg#: 73624

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ turkey hunter (4/17/02; 16:02:45MT msg#: 73646

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 311.1 $$$$ auenboy (04/17/02; 20:55:14MT msg#: 73677

$$$$ 310.5 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (4/18/02; 00:51:45MT msg#: 73700

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 309.4 $$$$ timbervision (04/17/02; 21:23:07MT msg#: 73679

$$$$ 309.1 $$$$ G$ (4/17/02; 11:07:04MT msg#: 73620

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 300.8 $$$$ Jin-Yin (4/18/02; 05:55:01MT msg#: 73717


$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Cumber (4/17/02; 09:39:08MT msg#: 73615

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.4 $$$$ The Hoople (4/17/02; 13:23:27MT msg#: 73626
$$$$ 306.3 $$$$ cwa (4/17/02; 14:35:39MT msg#: 73635

$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.8 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (4/17/02; 15:40:05MT msg#: 73640

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.3 $$$$ CoBra(too) (4/17/02; 15:19:39MT msg#: 73638

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393
$$$$ 304.9 $$$$ compwiz4u (4/18/02; 07:08:37MT msg#: 73724
$$$$ 304.8 $$$$ Yukon (4/17/02; 15:18:31MT msg#: 73637

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.2 $$$$ luckypierre (4/17/02; 15:28:04MT msg#: 73639

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.6 $$$$ sstins (04/18/02; 00:03:12MT msg#: 73693
$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540
$$$$ 303.4 $$$$ ProGold (4/18/02; 01:38:14MT msg#: 73705
$$$$ 303.3 $$$$ Shanti (4/18/02; 00:55:58MT msg#: 73701
$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456
$$$$ 303.1 $$$$ Trurl (04/17/02; 20:36:58MT msg#: 73674
$$$$ 303.0 $$$$ Golden Bear (4/18/02; 05:51:50MT msg#: 73716
$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392
$$$$ 302.8 $$$$ Nomad (4/17/02; 19:39:04MT msg#: 73664
$$$$ 302.7 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (4/17/02; 19:00:39MT msg#: 73661
$$$$ 302.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (4/17/02; 13:34:25MT msg#: 73628
$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451
$$$$ 302.4 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (04/17/02; 21:38:16MT msg#: 73680
$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490

$$$$ 302.1 $$$$ Au-some (4/17/02; 18:53:17MT msg#: 73659
$$$$ 302.0 $$$$ GuyGold (04/17/02; 22:36:17MT msg#: 73687
$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.7 $$$$ Scarab (4/17/02; 18:38:39MT msg#: 73656
$$$$ 301.6 $$$$ Canuck (4/18/02; 04:28:15MT msg#: 73712

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 301.0 $$$$ Gimli_ (04/16/02; 20:43:05MT msg#: 73573

$$$$ 300.9 $$$$ Econoclast (4/18/02; 00:14:43MT msg#: 73696

$$$$ 300.7 $$$$ Maiden Fan (04/17/02; 23:43:13MT msg#: 73690
$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.2 $$$$ Bound Spirit (4/17/02; 18:23:38MT msg#: 73655
$$$$ 300.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (4/18/02; 06:17:06MT msg#: 73720
$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426
$$$$ 299.8 $$$$ Guided (4/17/02; 13:44:12MT msg#: 73631
$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.5 $$$$ auric (04/17/02; 22:03:57MT msg#: 73683
$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 299.0 $$$$ FluorideCommie (4/17/02; 17:21:53MT msg#: 73652

$$$$ 298.8 $$$$ mikal (04/17/02; 21:57:25MT msg#: 73682

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.4 $$$$ Boxman (4/17/02; 16:38:30MT msg#: 73649

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436
$$$$ 291.1 $$$$ 4gold (4/17/02; 04:30:37MT msg#: 73599

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine golden "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- An one ounce Canadian SILVER Maple Leaf !!!
=====
<;-)
Gandalf the White
POG CONTEST
REMEMBER -- DEADLINE for ENTRIES is High Noon Denver time TODAY !!!
PS: Got ya Max R !
<;-)
darkhorse
@ Max R
The logic you used to determine your guess is, IMHO, the best so far. :)
darkhorse
by the way...
Anybody been watching spot wake up this morning?
Tommy P
$$$$$ 327.25 $$$$
tHANKS
White Rose
contest
$$$$ 311.50 $$$$
YGM
Standard Bank Daily PM Market report...Apr 18
http://www.standardbank.com/marketComment.asp?comment=PreciousMetals Excerpt>>

The yellow metal looks set to make further gains today after yesterdays encouraging performance and with the weekend approaching the gold price should gain further support from the dealing community as traders will be reluctant to hold short positions into Fridays close.


PS: "GO GATA"....First China Site then Russia???
Tommy P
$$$$325.2$$$
sorry
Buena Fe
$$$$310.90$$$$
$$$$310.90$$$$

Because the PPT is losing its grip. Perceptions are changing with ever greater momentum etc etc
Guided
@Belgian - Thanks for the numbers yesterday
Still trying to comprehend the scope of this. So the people own roughly four times what is owned by governments and government controlled financial "brotherhoods"? Is that roughly the case?
Good luck to all on the price contest. Looks like it's moving the right direction. Will it hold through the weekend?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
In bookstores for $14.95 (plus tax). Get it here for ONLY $5.95 ($3 postage)!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Waverider
$$$$$305.10$$$$$
...jobless claims up...middle east tensions...I like that number!

Thanks Gandolf and USAGold :)
Joanne
Timbervision
Yes, I learned about the (decoupling) relationship between stocks and metal many moons ago through the generous patience of people like Sector and Atocha and others.

Did you see our little exchange was quoted by Michael Murphy on LeMetropole Cafe last night? Whoa! How do I wipe the smile off my face (as the old joke goes). Actually he was just emphasizing the excellent reputation of John Embry in the fund world.
R Powell
$$$$$$$$$ 309.90 $$$$$$$$
All the technical indicators are pointing up and the last few day's warm, summer-like weather is a feel good factor favoring higher prices.
I can not confirm this guess with a Rhode Island Red chicken entrail reading until tomorrow night (new moon) but alas, the deadline approaches.
Rich
R Powell
Joanne / Timbervision
The information you two discussed and that you just now refered to concerning Embry and the Canadian gold fund was also reprinted as part of a Metropole report posting by G-ghan late last night at the neighboring forum.
Keep smiling!
Rich
USAGOLD Market Commentary
Gold in Break-Out Mode; Godsell Out-Thompson In as World Gold Council ChairmanNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

"These are treacherous times for investors." The Bank Credit Analyst

"Gold is an insurance policy, and a cheap one, against something going bad." Jean-Marie Eveillard, SoGen Gold Fund

Gold Market Brief (4/18/02) . . . .Gold continued to make headway this morning following yesterday's breakout rally with renewed Asian, Middle East and European interest cited by the news services as the chief motivation. Getting less notice was a report published in Germany that the International Monetary Fund appears ready to point a finger at the strong dollar as the chief "risk to a global economic recovery." Such talk heightens the potentiality for a de facto dollar devaluation -- a policy change that if agreed to by the biggest trading nations would be a bullish signal for gold. We appear to be on course with the J.P. Morgan Chase scenario published here last week: "After some consolidation in the next few days down to $299, further gains should be seen towards the previous highs around $308," JP Morgan Chase Bank said in a briefing note reported by Reuters. "Once attained, we expect a move towards the $315/320 area before stalling," the bank said.

Beyond the current concerns about the Middle East, the gold market is being driven by bullish supply/demand fundamentals including across the board hedge book reductions among several mining companies, including mega-hedger, AngloGold; continuing strong demand from Japan and the Mid-East; and, the loss of confidence by stock and bond investors over the escalating scandals on Wall Street. But it is Japan more than any other factor that is putting a floor under the gold market and laying the groundwork for a major move upward. "What we are getting in Japan is a real crisis of confidence in their banking system," refinery executive Brian Bath told South Africa's Business Day. People are going into gold coins or any other gold as a defense against any concerns that they have." Japanese investors purchased 45 tonnes of gold in the first quarter nearly quadruple the amount for the same period a year earlier. In that same article Japanese analyst Nobujuki Kudo said that "the rising trend in gold demand from Japanese investors will continue."
For the first quarter, the yellow is up 9.6% in U.S. dollars; 10.5% in euros; 10.8% in yen and 319% against the lowly Argentina peso -- making it for the moment the world's top performing primary asset. For U.S., Japanese and European investors gold's appreciation against local currencies hovers in the 40% - 45% range annualized. "After years of playing the part of Cinderella to other more-favoured financial assets," says CNN, "gold is finally shaking off its dowdy image and taking a shot at gaining the prize for best-performing asset market of 2002."

Short & Sweet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The World Gold Council announced today that Chris Thompson, Chairman of Gold Fields Limited, has been elected its Chairman. He succeeds Bobby Godsell, Chairman of Anglo Gold, according to a news release. "As I will soon have more time available as a non-executive Chairman of Gold Fields Limited, the Board of the World Gold Council has asked me if I could commit more time to the organization at this exciting point in the development of the gold markets," Thompson said in the statement. "I believe passionately in the industry and feel that it should concentrate on marketing as much as it concentrates on costs. The World Gold Council is the organization that can deliver the marketing expertise the industry needs." USAGOLD Comment: Thompson is known for his strident anti-hedging viewpoint and enjoys a reputation for gold advocacy of the first order. This is welcome shift at the World Gold Council which reflects the prevailing and rapidly changing attitude in the marketplace. Anglo under Godsell had become synonymous with gold hedging polices which many believe to be at the root of gold's problems over the last several years and harmful to its future prospects. Let's hope that Thompson can turn around the organization's sagging image -- a goal which can only be achieved by emphasizing gold's safe-haven portfolio role both for individuals and nation states. . . . . . . . . . . .

Neubie
$$$$$310.1$$$$$
This game is a lot more fun than the lottery and you only have to guess one number.
YGM
Hipplebeck...Which way would Islamic Peoples Choose??
http://www.murabitun.org/WITO/introduction/03uses.html***Lets see if the Millions of Islamic peoples will go for the Chip/Credit NWO plans.....YGM :<)


Excerpt::::

Gold and silver are the most stable currencies the world has ever seen
From the beginning of Islam until today, the value of the Islamic bimetallic currency has remained surprisingly stable in relation to basic consumable goods:






"A chicken at the time of the Prophet, salla'llahu alaihi wa sallam, cost one dirham; today, 1,400 years later, a chicken costs approximately one dirham."




** In 1,400 years inflation is zero. **



Could we say the same about the dollar or any other paper currency in the last 25 years?

In the long term the bimetallic currency has proved to be the most stable currency the world has ever seen. It has survived, despite all the attempts by governments to transform it into a symbolic currency by imposing a nominal value different from its weight.

USAGOLD
Whip Inflation Now. . . .The Rest of the Story. . . .
Picked up a U.S. News and World Report the other day to read over lunch. The main story in the financial section had to do with the first decade of the 2000s becoming a repeat of the 1970s. They asked if anyone had kept their old Whip Inflation Now buttons. By the way, anyone remember who dreamed up the WIN program?

It was a modest, bespectacled Wall Streeter known for his strong belief in free markets and a severely limited government role in the economy named Alan Greenspan.

(Paul Harvey can be heard in the background saying: "And NOW you know the REST of the story. . . ."
Econoclast
a threshold has been crossed
recalling previous price guessing contests from the recent past, guesses over 300 were just hopefulness. Well, it looks like it is here folks. In reality it is just a random number of chits, a bending measure of "value", yet it has been seriously defended due to it psychological value. I am ecstatic that someone who guessed higher than I did will win this contest. The world is turning, gold has a new floor, and I have serious doubts that we will EVER see gold under 300 again (barring some kind of 10:1 devaluation or something).
jlfletc
Contest
$$$$306.1$$$$$
I think TPTB will let POG run a while longer before being reined in again. I like gold....I mean, I really, really, really, really, really, really like gold (and silver)..........but, it's not the most important thing, you know. As Peter wrote..."For you know that it was not with perishable things such as silver or gold that you were redeemed from the empty way of life handed down to you from your forefathers, but with the precious blood of Christ, a lamb without blemish or defect."
R Powell
Silver leads gold higher
Gold is currently up by $2.40, obviously riding on the coattails of silver's +.09 morning gains. Both appear very strong. I'm amazed at the growing number of positive recommendations from the gold industry, market analysts and the media. The much awaited money flow into commodities in general may be about to begin in earnest.
The lastest issue of "Consensus" (National Futures and Financial Weekly) features an article by James Flanagan of Past Present Futures Newsletter who has been calling for a once in a lifetime upside price move in commodities. His basis is a 30 and 60 year cycle which he believes is beginning now and may offer outrageous gains, especially for soybeans and silver. He first talked of this about a year ago but now seems, as do many other prominent analysts, more definitive and willing to call for specific gains. Although very few explain gold and silver from a wider economic viewpoint, I believe this trend verifies what so many of us have been stating for so long. The actual price happening lends credence to the underlying reasoning upon which the prediction was made. The pot we've been watching for years may be starting to boil!
Along these same lines, I listened to Maria on the peoples stock market picking channel this morning ask a corporate CEO how his company might fare in light of growing concerns over the growing number of corporate bankruptcies and the possible coming problems with consumers struggling with credit card debt. Consumer credit card debt! Where have we heard of that before?
My thinking is still one of positioning to catch the upside without any attempts at specific market timing which I know is far beyond my ability and IMHO beyond that of all but the very best analysts but the signs are increasingly positive. Physical possession is, of course, the surest way to profit. Paper haters will have to forgive the gambler in me that invests with options. Either way, (or both) the path of least resistence appears upward. Hope so!
Rich

MidEastGold
contest is looking up$
$$$$$313.4$$$$$

The dollar will drop its value and international stocks are very heavily influenced by the Dow. So what else is left for the big Funds to by.

People are no longer trying to get rich on stocks, they are just trying to get hold of something that wouldn't sink.
Rock
56% of Dow said to have met street expectations!
Did anyone catch Maria Bartaloma (however you pronounce her name) this morning on CNBC? She said that 56% of the Dow has met the streets expectation this 1Q. Then she said but thats because they revised their earnings forcast. Thanks for throwing that in Maria. I think someone is learning to be more upfront concerning the truth about these numbers for a change. Also it sure felt good to see the gold futures up over 2.00 this morning before opening bell. I knew it would be a good day for gold.

Rock
AUthentic
contest
$$$$$308.4$$$$$
Because no one else guessed it.
Belgian
POG and VOG !
The ** PRICE ** of GOLD and the ** VALUE ** of GOLD !
We all do realize the VALUE of life-saving medication when disease strikes. Then suddenly the PRICE of the needed medicine comes in on much lower order.
The disease is " CONFETTI-ITIS " a well known lethal , chronic and inflammatory viral infection !

Gold has two lovers : Price lovers (bugs) and Value lovers (advocates).
Sir Michael Kosares at CPM is the the best goldminer for as far as I know. He (MK) will never go out of business, because he is GOLD-VALUE (VOG) oriented and has little to do with price (POG).CPM will trade the refined for ever. Underground gold (miners), permanently has to worry about new reserves to replace the mined ounces, and the price of Gold ! That's why the goldminer's statements at the Melbourne reunion are so contradictionary (again).
The 10 top producers are left with as little as 10.000 tonnes of underground reserves against 144.000 tonnes of aboveground refined ! What is the impact or input of this relative little amount of underground gold to be added to the already existing aboveground stockpile ?
Proportions dear Watson...proportions !

The BULK of refined Gold (32.633 T.) is in the hands of the confetti printers !!!! Exclude all carat gold (jewelry) owners from having any impact on POG. They don't trade gold for a living or maximize the value of their jewelry with paper gold contracts (derivatives).
It is the confetti printers and allies with Physical Gold in their reserves (Official + Private) that manage the price of Gold they ** VALUE ** !!! And there is a very little amount of Gold-Medicine for the viral disease CONFETTI-ITIS ! The patients (non gold holders) are extremely weakened. The virus has been brought in an optimum multiplication medium (stagflalala in Debtsauce).

FREE GOLD is the only "Galenic" form in wich this only medication has a lasting effect. Galenic, being a a specific pharmaceutical form. And it is Official Gold (Reserve Gold) that is / must manufacture that very specific FREE GOLD medicine as only workable (lasting) cure for the virus proliferation ! As in all Pharmaceutical experimental evolvement, there are different phases. We will soon witness in vitro trials.

The ECB manages POG with quarterly price settings to VALUE their Gold Reserves in relation to the obsolete dollar-reserves, accumulated for decades ! Dear forumers, what better evidence can we come up with, than this Official Gold Reserve Holder (ECB) who sees Gold as a VALUABLE ?
Goldmines risk going out of business but Physical Gold Holders will never have to face such a risk ! If central banks should have decided to abandon Gold as a Reserve and STORE of Wealth...they would have sold already everything.

Two remarkable little details with much more significance than on first appearance :
1/ Goldminers never, ever talk about the "euro" ! They act as if it still was a euro-dollar !? Yes, many americans do think that the euro is the same as a US$ (not kidding).
2/ On the daily BBC financial news headlines (tele), sterling/dollar/euro-exchanges are showed...and guess what other currency : the rand !!!-??? Why the hell rand ? Why not Indian/Pakistani rupee ? If only 4 currencies are to appear on your screen...sterling/$/� seem quite obvious...but why exactly the rand !? Has it something to do with honoring Cecil Rhodes spirit ?

What will be the valuation of goldminers, with decreasing underground reserves, when Gold starts its inevitable RE-VALUATION and POG becomes less relevant as the price of insulin for a diabetes ? Underground reserves of 10/12.000 tonnes at a yearly depletion rate (plundering) of 2.500 tonnes per year = 4 years to go ! Physical Gold in Possesion will last FOR EVER !
TownCrier
Positive gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020418/markets_precious_1.htmlExcerpts:

------NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - COMEX gold churned to a two-week high early Thursday, gaining technical momentum as continued weakness in the U.S. dollar increased the bullion purchasing power of overseas investors.

...The U.S. dollar index, watched by commodity analysts for its inverse correlation with gold, broke lower Thursday and was last at 116.26, its lowest since Jan 4.

The greenback continued to erode against the Euro and yen. Firm commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and South African rand made it even less attractive for gold producers, who are already scaling back hedging activity, to sell.

The dollar was losing support after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan indicated Wednesday that the central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates because the strength of the current economic recovery was unclear.
------

Bottom line: there is no time like the present to get serious about getting your gold in the pipeline. Underneath these concerns lurks a stark reality of tightness in the physical market that won't likely show itself significantly in prices until the bullion banking stopgap measures for liquidity fail outright, and prices race away. (My view.)

Call USAGOLD / Centennial for friendly assistance and great prices. George, Marie and MK are ever-ready to discuss the diversification strategy that is right for you.

R.
R Powell
USAGOLD
Thanks for the information. Thompson as WGC chairman should be good news for the promotion of gold for it's most valuable characteristic as an inflation resistent store of wealth, immune to the failures of the financial world mechanisms. Now, maybe we'll see some results for the dollars spent by the WGC supporters other than just jewrellry advertisements.
You're mention of the U.S. News and World Report article comparing the 1970s to the present time has been mentioned by many, including Flanagan (see 73750). I'm not convinced that time cycle analysis is truely valid ( I question all analysis) but the conditions for inflation appear awfully similar.
I had heard that the Philadephia mint was closed for maintanence and know that the government has run out of silver to supply the mint. Have you any current information as to the production of Silver Eagles? Also, from your unique viewpoint, can you offer any insights into the availability of gold and silver? Do you see any signs of tighter supply available to those in your business or to small local coin dealers?
Thanks
Rich
sector
Cabal Has No More Rocks Left to Hide Under...Justice Department Circling
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APL5GWBU6Q2l0aWdy04/18 00:06
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Role in Enron Bankruptcy Under Review
By Patrick Oster

New York, April 18 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. Justice Department official who appointed the creditors committee in Enron Corp.'s record bankruptcy is reviewing whether Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. should be removed from the panel.

An Enron creditor, Exco Resources Inc., complained to the official, U.S. Trustee Carolyn S. Schwartz in New York, that the banks should be disqualified because they are responsible for conflicting missions: maximizing returns for creditors while defending two lawsuits that say they are liable for an Enron fraud that may produce a damage award benefiting creditors. Schwartz is reviewing the complaint, said Exco's general counsel.

``It is deeply ironical that we have the largest bankruptcy in history, caused by conflicts of interest that were not disclosed, and we now have major creditors who are participants in the Enron scheme, and they failed to disclose those conflicts prior to the bankruptcy,'' said Lynn Sarko, a Seattle lawyer. He represents Enron employee pension funds that lost $3 billion as the energy trader collapsed and are suing Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and other banks.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
At every turn these days JPM and CitiBank shoot themselves in their feet. To an outsider it all seems strange.

Did they not think people would notice the Enron BK conflict of interest?

Questions like this are easily answered by inserting the fact that monstrous egos, galactic-sized arrogance and total moral loss is at the core of the cabal's ideologies...the idolatry of avarice..."Greed is Good"...Gordon Gecko on steroids...pumped up ...mutated almost beyond recognition. Juiced by Harvard "Appointments"...dressed in caps and gowns...at the podium...amulets gleaming.

Smashing the economies of the Third World in order to artificially advance ours was only a start. The steps following that fateful manipulation decision put in motion in June 1996 have been characterized by ever larger risk taking, unmindful of the eventual disaster looming ahead. But what about Enron?...

Blow it OFF!......Boys!
Canuck Gold
$$$$$307.7$$$$$
At this rate, it's anybody's guess where things are going. ME, Japan, you name it. It's up today but who knows what will happen tomorrow.

CG
Gandalf the White
REPEAT of PRIOR MESSAGE to "GR2" and "Black Blade" !!!!
ATTN: "GR2" AND "Black Blade" !!!!
PRIOR Guesses !!!
BB -- STRIKE TWO -- BOTH were taken before you !
Missed it by that much < > !!! <;-)
Try again.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (4/18/02; 04:11:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 73710)
$$$$$$$$$$$302.35$$$$$$$$$$$$
====
MUST be in Tenths of a whole $ --- Like $302.4 or $304.3!!
BUT check the list above and see if that new GUESS is "available" !!!
Thanks
24Wortel
Contest
$$$ 305.2 $$$

I went into the bathroom at my local bar, Neil Young was singing "Heart of Gold", and there on the wall was the following: 'Sister Goldenhair : x3052.' I don't know what the extension was for, but I saw a gold price in that number and knew it had to be so.

Long may you run.


Pizz
(No Subject)
Just on news, plane hits 30 story building in Milan Italy.

Hang on!

Pizz
Gandalf the White
PROGRESS REPORT !! UPDATED to 10:11 MT Denver !!!!
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTREMEMBER -- less than TWO Hours before the DEADLINE for ENTRIES !!!
---
I am now reporting to the FORUM from deep in Mordor. Having checked in to see if things were going well just before the HIGH NOON DEADLINE Time in Denver. Tick Tock !!! (NOW, off to slay some more ORCS ! Catch you later.)
<;-)

=====
GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 666.0 $$$$ LeSin (4/18/02; 05:29:53MT msg#: 73714

$$$$ 555.5 $$$$ A Canadian (4/17/02; 17:12:48MT msg#: 73651

$$$$ 352.0 $$$$ techbull.... (4/17/02; 08:33:26MT msg#: 73610

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (04/17/02; 19:58:46MT msg#: 73667

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ Tommy P (4/18/02; 07:39:57MT msg#: 73732

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ milos (04/17/02; 23:37:55MT msg#: 73689

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ Basil (4/17/02; 13:33:10MT msg#: 73627

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ BLUENOSE (4/17/02; 13:01:12MT msg#: 73624

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ turkey hunter (4/17/02; 16:02:45MT msg#: 73646

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 313.4 $$$$ MidEastGold (4/18/02; 09:23:42MT msg#: 73751

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 311.5 $$$$ White Rose (4/18/02; 07:44:38MT msg#: 73733

$$$$ 311.1 $$$$ auenboy (04/17/02; 20:55:14MT msg#: 73677

$$$$ 310.9 $$$$ Buena Fe (4/18/02; 08:06:38MT msg#: 73736

$$$$ 310.5 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (4/18/02; 00:51:45MT msg#: 73700

$$$$ 310.1 $$$$ Neubie (4/18/02; 08:41:32MT msg#: 73745

$$$$ 309.9 $$$$ Powell (4/18/02; 08:29:10MT msg#: 73742

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 309.4 $$$$ timbervision (04/17/02; 21:23:07MT msg#: 73679

$$$$ 309.1 $$$$ G$ (4/17/02; 11:07:04MT msg#: 73620

$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394
$$$$ 308.4 $$$$ AUthentic (4/18/02; 09:29:06MT msg#: 73753

$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 300.8 $$$$ Jin-Yin (4/18/02; 05:55:01MT msg#: 73717


$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370
$$$$ 307.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (04/18/02; 10:04:37MT msg#: 73758

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Cumber (4/17/02; 09:39:08MT msg#: 73615

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372

$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.4 $$$$ The Hoople (4/17/02; 13:23:27MT msg#: 73626
$$$$ 306.3 $$$$ cwa (4/17/02; 14:35:39MT msg#: 73635

$$$$ 306.1 $$$$ jlfletc (4/18/02; 09:11:03MT msg#: 73749
$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.1 $$$$ Waverider (4/18/02; 08:23:35MT msg#: 73740

$$$$ 305.8 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (4/17/02; 15:40:05MT msg#: 73640

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424







$$$$ 305.3 $$$$ CoBra(too) (4/17/02; 15:19:39MT msg#: 73638

$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393
$$$$ 304.9 $$$$ compwiz4u (4/18/02; 07:08:37MT msg#: 73724
$$$$ 304.8 $$$$ Yukon (4/17/02; 15:18:31MT msg#: 73637

$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422

$$$$ 304.2 $$$$ luckypierre (4/17/02; 15:28:04MT msg#: 73639

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.6 $$$$ sstins (04/18/02; 00:03:12MT msg#: 73693
$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540
$$$$ 303.4 $$$$ ProGold (4/18/02; 01:38:14MT msg#: 73705
$$$$ 303.3 $$$$ Shanti (4/18/02; 00:55:58MT msg#: 73701
$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456
$$$$ 303.1 $$$$ Trurl (04/17/02; 20:36:58MT msg#: 73674
$$$$ 303.0 $$$$ Golden Bear (4/18/02; 05:51:50MT msg#: 73716
$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392
$$$$ 302.8 $$$$ Nomad (4/17/02; 19:39:04MT msg#: 73664
$$$$ 302.7 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (4/17/02; 19:00:39MT msg#: 73661
$$$$ 302.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (4/17/02; 13:34:25MT msg#: 73628
$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451
$$$$ 302.4 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (04/17/02; 21:38:16MT msg#: 73680
$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490

$$$$ 302.1 $$$$ Au-some (4/17/02; 18:53:17MT msg#: 73659
$$$$ 302.0 $$$$ GuyGold (04/17/02; 22:36:17MT msg#: 73687
$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.7 $$$$ Scarab (4/17/02; 18:38:39MT msg#: 73656
$$$$ 301.6 $$$$ Canuck (4/18/02; 04:28:15MT msg#: 73712

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 301.0 $$$$ Gimli_ (04/16/02; 20:43:05MT msg#: 73573

$$$$ 300.9 $$$$ Econoclast (4/18/02; 00:14:43MT msg#: 73696

$$$$ 300.7 $$$$ Maiden Fan (04/17/02; 23:43:13MT msg#: 73690
$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.2 $$$$ Bound Spirit (4/17/02; 18:23:38MT msg#: 73655
$$$$ 300.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (4/18/02; 06:17:06MT msg#: 73720
$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426
$$$$ 299.8 $$$$ Guided (4/17/02; 13:44:12MT msg#: 73631
$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.5 $$$$ auric (04/17/02; 22:03:57MT msg#: 73683
$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 299.0 $$$$ FluorideCommie (4/17/02; 17:21:53MT msg#: 73652

$$$$ 298.8 $$$$ mikal (04/17/02; 21:57:25MT msg#: 73682

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.4 $$$$ Boxman (4/17/02; 16:38:30MT msg#: 73649

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436
$$$$ 291.1 $$$$ 4gold (4/17/02; 04:30:37MT msg#: 73599

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine golden "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses --- An one ounce Canadian SILVER Maple Leaf !!!
=====
<;-)
CoBra(too)
Joanne & Timbervision
Nice to see you guys and gals on the cafe. Seems Bill Murphy is now really lurking at USAGOLD.

It was nice to see POG at my # for tomorrow 305.30 just now, though that was spot price. Hope one of the higher betters win the gold.
@ Belgian's POG & VOG - Nice essay and even neater thinking. Best cb2

PS: Just heard a Piper Plane hit the Pirelli Tower in Milan - ...
Zhisheng
Price of Gold
$$$307.0$$$

Seems like trends should continue through Friday. Surprising news is often held till week-end to minimize effect on markets
mudr
Contest: $$$$ $308.80 $$$$ (4-18-08)
Contest; $$$ $308.80 $$$$
Only right!!!!!!
Rock
Breaking News, Passenger Plane Hits tallest building in Milan Italy
Although the details arn't clear yet the stock market
dropped 160 points within minutes of the breaking news. That just goes to show how volitile the market is. Although most of the dow has recoved from the initial impact once again it shows how sensitive the market reacts to bad news.

Rock
USAGOLD
Rich. . .
I don't follow the silver situation like I should. Have my plate full trying to understand the gold market. I generally leave the silver analysis to George Cooper and I'll pass your question along to him.

On gold supply, what TownCrier alluded to in his post this morning is something I think every investor needs to consider. There is not much gold available in size.

If you were the finance minister for Japan (for example) and you wanted to increase your gold reserves, you would have only a few options available to you.

1) Hope that some other central bank is forced to sell and that the gold is "free." By "free" I mean available for the open market. The BOE sales were not "free" but channelled sales -- available only to LBMA members at which point control of BOE reserves was delimited to whomever the members chose. As I have said before, I believe the BOE sales were meant to help some bullion bank in trouble with gold loans. The BOE in essence became the lender of last resort though they tried to disingenuously tried to paint the sales as prudent change in their asset structure. The same can be said about the Swiss sales which as you recall first went through the Bank for International Settlements, but when things did go as the Swiss had hoped, were altered to go through bullion banks designated by the Swiss central bank. To acquire metal through central bank channels, no matter how many sales are announced in the future, may be a waning hope for any central bank since most of the big ones need to hold something in reserve should one of their primary banks be pushed to the ropes due to a high failure rate in gold loans. When one puts this thinking to use, it becomes obvious that gold sales by central banks are no longer something to be feared by the marketplace since nearly all the metal will be channelled to deals already on the books. This metal is unlikely to see the light of day.

2. Attempt to structure a deal direct with mining companies at a fixed cost (or escalating cost within a band in your domestic currency) over any number of years to fulfill the need. This is going to be difficult to get done in the current environment.

3. Attempt to buy from a private holder. Once again, this is unlikely since for major private holders, gold is not an investment but a currency holding (Footsteps of Giants scenario) not to be touched except in the case of dire emergency. In fact, with this group, the opposite becomes a problem: They will be buyers as the world's major currencies continue to depreciate recklessly against one another in this beggar thy neighbor environment.

4. Attempt to buy in the open market. Essentially this is what Japan is doing now by standing aside as national investors' scramble to acquire yellow metal. By doing this, the Japanese people get some of the advantage of these ridiculously low, bullion-bank-sponsored prices, and the metal flows within Japanese borders. (Once again, probably never to see the light of day). This is stealth economics at its best -- the redemption of paper dollars for gold while no one is thinking about it (as such) -- and without the national government having to make a public issue about it.

5. Force the United States government to begin shipping its hoard of bullion to the Japanese central bank in the same manner that France forced the US to ship metal to the continent in the late 1960s -- a strategy which forced the collapse of the London gold pool and the phony $35 benchmark price. Japan may force the issue in the same way now with its on-going citizen purchases. That's why I have tried to bring the proper emphasis on the Japanese situation to bear. When Japanese gold experts say that they believe that gold demand in Japan could rise sharply from here, we should pay close attention. This is phenomena beginning to take on the feel of an economic policy. Ron Paul's legislation to make US gold dealings more transparent takes on an even more important hue when thought about in the context just outlined. If the U.S. has uncommitted reserves (and that in itself is a question straining to be answered), will Japan, Europe and China (our chief trading partners) make a claim on them? And if so what will be the U.S. response. At current prices, I don't think that even this would be a threat to the gold market as the current currency situation progresses. The price will have to be raised substantially to keep these countries from collapsing their largest export market.

Much to think about. . . . .

So what does all this mean to the gold investor?

It means that you could be easily crowded out of the market and it could happen before most even understood what had happened. Even now, when things get moving, the supply of gold coins tightens up AND IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH. In 1999 when we had the post Washington Agreement run-up coupled with the Y2K buying spree, the pre-1933 market was completely bottled up by major investors working through brokers like USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals. I expect that to happen again. Believe it or not though, I believe that the flow of pre-1933 because it is a smaller, targeted market detached from the bullion banks, will be better than bullion coins. That will be good for those who buy now because it will lubricate a two-way market.

I don't know how the small dealers will do, but they will have trouble like everyone else keeping metal in stock. Their ability to fulfill orders will be directly related to their long term business arrangements with primary suppliers -- a problem we don't have at USAGOLD due to our consistently large volumes.

I only ran through this once so please excuse any typos and thought gaps. If I can fill in any gaps for anyone, please ask the questions and I'll try to get back here for some answers. Right now, I have to return some phone calls.

Intriguing question. . . and maybe the most important, Rich. Thanks. MK
RobertG
Contest
$$$$ 304.7 $$$$

Don't think the Cabal want to see a week end close above 305 but just a guess. We all expect gold to be higher in the ong run, but it may be months, even years, who knows.
zorro
(No Subject)
My guess for contest

$$$$306.06$$$$

Please acknowledge Thanks Vince
TownCrier
Note to these new posters: 2me, ESSEN, Annie (B), twili, and Hedgehog
The e-mail addresses you've each provided (in order to receive your posting info) do not appear to be functioning properly. In trying to mail your passwords, the e-mail has been bounced back as undeliverable.

Please feel free to contact me directly by e-mail so that I may successfully respond to your request to participate at the forum.

Randy
sitemaster@usagold.com
Simply Me
$$$$$$ 302.20 $$$$$$....My guess for tomorrow's Comex Gold Close
I expect that a slow news day tomorrow will give the anti-gold cabal chance to push gold prices a little lower in all areas. But they won't want to push to hard or too fast, so as not to trigger alot of buying.

The dollar is drifting lower and gold drifting higher. The powers that are in control want a nice orderly market. And I expect they'll have it until one unpredictable event spooks the herd and the stampede into gold begins.

Simply
Little Feet
$$$$$304.6$$$$$
This is my first time posting to this erudite forum. Thanks for all of the great information and thanks to MK for this forum.

Buy Gold
and buy it from Centennial Precious Metals
JackFlash
Price guessing contest
$$$$$319.00$$$$$

I'm anticipating the possibility of a "rogue wave" which will cause a price spike before the close.
Voyager
GOLD CLOSE
$$$$ 307.10 $$$$

Gold price now plus $2.20.
THX-1138
Contest Entry $$$$$308.60$$$$$$$$$
Financial markets are getting out of hand, and I believe the powers that be have taken a slap to the face with the announcement of the silver coinage minting in Argentina. A side note is the fact that many financial managers don't want to be shorting the gold market over a weekend.
JA
Contest
$$$$$ 315.2 $$$$$

Like others have mentioned, I tend to think the markets will get the jitters prior to the weekend. Todays action in Gold already made new near term highs. I believe if tomorrow, Gold gets above 308 then it could be off to the races for a little while. While 315 by the end of the day tomorrow is a stretch, it's very possible with the current world situation where a crisis could occur any number of places.
Carl H
Contest
$$$$ 304.40 $$$$

Mr Gresham
Pennies -- from Heaven?
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/11/pf/q_pennies/index.htmGreat summary, MK. And exciting to see new posters coming in from lurker-land, more than I ever remember seeing at contest time.

I'm always on the lookout for any little tweaks in fiat-land. There is a theory that charges the Bureau of the Mint with never letting ANY shortage of ANY denomination occur, for fear it will start a hoarding rush on -- guess what? PHYSICAL -- fiats, leading to a -- guess what, again? SEPARATION -- of "physical" from electronic currency. Perhaps revealing the underlying nature of the whole game to formerly trusting people.

The excerpt shows a fun little sideshow in the "Pennies" debate, where the home state for the "next coin up" nickel is Arizona, the leading copper-producer.

It's kind of like the 19th century tug-of-war between gold and silver interests, on a micro scale today bordering on financial trivia. But my side thought is wondering if COINS have some kind of subconscious "in" for people's sense of money, vis-a-vis paper, echoing from long ago.

A fish may rot from the head down, but a sweater unravels from the bottom up...

"And many note the interests of the copper and zinc industries. Pennies are made of 97.5 percent zinc, with a copper coating. To confuse you further, nickels aren't made of nickel -- they're actually made of 95 percent copper.

"Kolbe is from Arizona, the largest-copper producing state. The nickel is made predominantly of copper, as is the dollar coin, which he also supports. If we introduced a rounding bill, we would need more nickels. The whole proposal is special-interest lobbying at its worst," said Mark Weller, president of Americans for Common Cents.

"The folks at the Coin Coalition counter that the zinc industry funds Americans for Common Cents. "

RobotGuy
USAGOLD - - - Question for ya:
Is there a way to search out forum archives by message#? I know we often refer to message #'s, but I can't find where to search for them.

Thank-you kindly,

RobotGuy.
Mr Gresham
compwiz4u
"just sit back and enjoy "

Love your attitude -- hope you're around more to mellow us all out with the long view...
Mr Gresham
RobotGuy: Searches
I just use on the keyboard and put in the Msg # I want. If I have to go back a day into the archives, then it still pops up with the number I entered when I do Ctrl-F again. Most of our references don't go back more than a few days, anyway, so I don't find it too much work to hit the Previous Day link a couple times. Quick 'n' dirty searching, an old programmer's instincts...
Pizz
@LeSin post 73719
Thank you very much for the link to Clif Droke. IMO this could be bigger issue as year goes by.

My initial reaction would be a currency call rather than a formal devaluation. Besides, how do you devalue a reserve currency? Against the Euro or gold or oil?? I don't think so. Against every fiat currency? Too messy.

A two currency system would be a nightmare - too many international companies and trade.

Now, a currency call and an ensuing set up similar to Euro? That would make sense. Let gold run, eliminate the black market underground with high tech bills and counterfeit dollars off the US balance sheet (along with all the US assets of any terrorist nation????.

The combination of all the above might just prevent a formal devaluation. It appears all the major traders with US are or have been moving to gold. The devaluation of the dollar will be letting the gold price run, as Euro, etc. have to mark to market and strengthen (or print - their choice).

Didn't I read a post lately that stated the FED ordered JPM to lighten their derrivitives positions 50%?

Gold set free without total financial collapse. What a marvelous idea. Must be something wrong with my thinking (smile).

Thanks again LeSin. I'm sleeping better already.

Pizz

Goldfinger 2
$$$$$$$$304.4$$$$$$$
JUST A GUESS!!
Mr Gresham
Smart Bombs -- Stupid Wars
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&ncid=716&e=1&u=/ap/20020418/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/afghan_mistaken_bombing"Poor Canada! So far from God, and so close to the United States." -- adapted from the famous quote from Mexican President Porfirio Diaz.

May this be the beginning of some truly "independent" thinking. Time to see "Gallipoli" again...
Max Rabbitz
Gandolph
You forgot to include my $305.2 (07:17:50MT) in your update at 10:35:06MT. And then.........24Wortel has the same $305.2 at 10:18:57MT. Lots of action this time. :-)

Mr Gresham
LeSin, Pizz: Droke
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/droke/droke041802.htmlThanks for the link -- my first impulse was to look at the date, for "April 1". Monkeying with the paper -- again -- ver-r-r-y risky IMO. Indicator lights flashing...
YGM
Robert Mundell, Goldbug & Father of the Euro Dollar
Why not make the Canadian Peso a World Peso! Nobel laureate thinks globally on currency


Times Colonist (Victoria)


Friday, April 05, 2002



OTTAWA -- Canadians should think bigger than working for a single North American currency and begin building consensus toward a single world currency, says Robert Mundell, the Canadian-born Nobel Prize-winning economist.

"A global economy requires a global currency," Mundell said Thursday during a speech at Carleton University's Sir John A. Macdonald lecture series. "The optimum currency area is not North America, it's the world."

During his 100-minute speech, Mundell, an economics professor at Columbia University in New York, delved deep into economic history to explain how the emergence of the United States led the world away from the gold and silver standards of the 18th and 19th centuries, where exchange rates were essentially fixed, to today's world of mostly flexible currency valuations.

Using his concept of optimal currency areas -- a theory he developed in the late 1950s that examines the geographical area in which a single currency would be most effective -- Mundell said a North American currency would be largely impractical and that the best thing for the world would be to gravitate toward a single currency.

"I am not an enthusiast of a single currency (for North America) that is different from the U.S. dollar," Mundell said. He said that the U.S. would never agree to give up its dollar, which was the dominant currency of the 20th century and will probably retain that position in this century.

Instead, Canada should fix the loonie's value to the U.S. and begin urging other countries, notably members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, to do the same. He said with APEC, which would include China, Japan, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, Peru and Chile, all pegged to the U.S. dollar, more than half of the world's economic production would effectively be under one monetary system. Meanwhile, in Europe, the euro would continue to stabilize and would eventually be predictable in its valuation when compared with the U.S. dollar as well.

Mr Gresham
Undermining Fiat
http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?action=press_release&ID=326When I saw this one on Monday, the thought flashed: "These people are not minding the store, while trying to turn their currency into a shopping item."

When you turn the regular currency into a "collector's item", and price it above par (aside from the ethics of creating artificial scarcities in some items), you are undermining the fundamental "Money" property of Fungibility, the exchange of all legitimate currency items at face value.

They make their money, transparently, from seignorage. To impose a profit markup on top of that is Stupid, Stupid, Stupid.

When you overvalue one item -- ESPECIALLY the gov doing it, as opposed to letting the market do it -- and thereby undervalue other items, you are introducing uncertainty into the "consumer market" for fiats, and the question becomes "Hey! We're not supposed to have to think about valuing our cash in pocket. What is the next one to go?"

"2002-Dated Golden Dollars Featuring Sacagawea Available April 29th In Bags and Rolls at www.usmint.gov


WASHINGTON - The United States Mint today announced that 2002-dated Golden Dollars featuring Sacagawea will be available in bags of 2,000 coins and rolls of 25 coins online at www.usmint.gov beginning April 29, 2002 at 12:00 Noon (Eastern Time).


These coins will be available to customers in 25-coin rolls for $35.50 and in 2,000-coin bags for $2,190.00. These coins bear either the Philadelphia mint mark (�P�) or the Denver mint mark ('D') and there is no order limit. The Golden Dollar rolls will be shipped by Priority Mail, and the bags will be shipped by registered mail through the United States Postal Service."


G: "No order limit." Indeed.

RobotGuy
Thank-you Mr. Gresham, that will be very helpful! I haven't invested enough time programming and playing with these things. I see it's on my Edit control bar, if I could only read!! :)
RobotGuy
I see Thom Calandra has updated his photo! Blond highlights (GOLD) A man of his word - - very well done! (I hope it's not just a photo-edit job.)
Jon
contest participants
Is list of submissions up to date? Don't see my favorite poster - Black Blade - listed.
Gandalf the White
DID you hear the Twelve O'Clock Bells ? <;-)
The magic hour of HIGH NOON in Denver has sounded !!
THAT means that the DEADLINE for entries in the POG Contest has arrived! I shall prepare the final OFFIIAL LISTING and post it later this day in the GREAT HALL !
WE ALL await the Settlement Price tomorrow on the GC2M COMEX Contract.
<;-)
-----
PS to Sir Max R. -- the PREPARATION time of my last listing was before your "GUESS" -- Don't worry you have it !
(and anyone that made a non-duplicate legal entry BEFORE the DEADLINE will be included in the FINAL list.
Thanks for you interest in this contest and NOW start working on the "Tears of Argentina" essay challenge CONTEST that ends TOMORROW.
<;-)
--
PS: I am still "in the field" dealing with the Orcs and shall return to the CASTLE before sunset. Til then !!
GO GOLD !!
---
Sierra Madre
Econoclast's post 73748 this morning...

I have just been reading today's posts and before reading Econoclast's opinion regarding $300/oz as a floor, I came to the very same conclusion. If we see gold under $300 it will be only momentary, if at all.

The controllers of the price are in a strategic retreat mode, they are digging in their trenches at higher and higher prices as the buyers overcome their forward (lower price) trenches. Perhaps they will come to thinking that instead of "wasting" their ammo defending $300, they had better think of defending it at $325?

But the buyers will not be satisfied. Once the trenches at $325 are overrun, they will not stop there, they will rush forward to the $350 trench.

And one of these days, the whole thing will become a full-scale rout, no prisoners taken, $500, $600, $1,000 and more.

That's what I see coming. FWIW.

Sierra

PS About Mundell's silly idea, I'll comment later.

Pizz
Mr. Gresham
Agree with your "verry risky".

But, if you can squeeze a little time put your reorganization experience into what we know over the next week or so and throw me back some feedback. I'm going to put some time into this new currency thing. It may have merit, it could be planned (hopefully), and I'm a little confused that it was put out in March and Droke is the first one to pick up on it a month later?

If nothing else, it'll keep my mind off the Armaggeddon senarios - both my mind and golf game need a little "light at the end of the tunnel" time.

Pizz
YGM
Gandalph...."Reminiscing"...So many contestants compared to Apr/9/99
I wonder if 'Goldfly' is hiding here under an assumed name :>) You may remember he won 'Both' the essay and the Au price contests.....The Archives are quite a trip to scan back thru, so many great thinkers that are not around or at least not posting anymore.....YGM.
Mr Gresham
Aye-aye Pizz!
That's the first I've heard -- what to make of it, taking time to put pieces together. I'm sure since the widespread fact of 2/3 of US green paper (300 BD of 450 BD last I read) is under the mattresses of Russians, South Americans, and -- Heaven Forfend! -- Moslems! , that this goose has been targeted for a rich plucking ASAPracticable.

Not sure I've addressed your posts adequately -- rushing --Yes, time to relax a bit...
YGM
Mr. Gresham & Pizz.................
I went thru all the US Treasury news releases this AM:......and could find no mention of any "New Currency".....
But then I have not searched WSJ archives either.....
It surely is a mystery if this report is true why no fanfare in the media......
Boilermaker
Today's gold stock prices
Gold stocks turned down rather sharply this PM. Must be an assault coming tomorrow against the metal. Seems that there are some insiders who know what's coming and will trade accordingly.
Black Blade
Gandy

You sure that 304.40 was taken already? I did not see it listed. Oh well. At least I got the "Argentine Tears" posted. Cheers!

- Black Blade
CoBra(too)
The Euro and a Constitution?
The German President, Johannes Rau and his Italian colleague
Carlo Ciampi have again put forward the idea of creating a Federation of European States within its own constitution.

This resolution seems to gather popularity among Europeans. A recent EU poll sees 67% of EU citizens in favor of adopting a basic EU legislation (Grundgestz), which in time could be converted into a EU Constitution.
(Snippets translated from "Die Presse")

Interesting developments, as Helmut Kohl has always seen the common currency as the first step from an economic union towars a political union. He may still be proven right.

Food for thought, as such a development could clearly have an important impact on global economic, monetary and foreign politics. And last, but not least the euro would have a real country.

Regards cb2

RobotGuy
Playnig Gold
I don't know if this is an obvious trend, but it seems to me that those who play games in the stock markets are doing the same thing with POG. Buy lots low and sell them for a small gain and repeat process. I think we've had a similar discussion before, but isn't it acceptable if there isn't market domination? Some might say, there is market domination, but I feel it's a little different than that. If you study the volumes exchanged of most common stocks, they are a mere percentage of companies total volumes of outstanding stocks. We call it day-trading, and it's what establishes the value of a company's shares on any given daily basis, however, what is the true value of the share/gold? There are many, obviously, who are just holding and not playing the daily game. At what price have these individuals mentally established that they might be willing to give up their gold/stocks. It all seems so similar to me, and it seems that lately the buy and sell of gold is following a similar trend to stocks. You have your day traders, and you have your devoted holders. I guess that is what's meant by going short and long, not sure.

However, the point that I'm trying so meagerly to establish is that if there were a true instantaneous demand of sizeable volume, what would be the average breakdown point for longtime holders? Are we going to sit and wait to see what happens, or have we established an expected return? What is it that you would trade your gold for once it reaches that particular setpoint? Fiat?

The idea of gold as an investment seems like a very logical idea for me, but it's becoming more apparent that a percentage of on hand gold must be maintained in the event of a possible hyper-inflationary period. Oh, some will say that will never happen! I would prefer to say that it is quite unlikely to happen under current circumstances, but never is a very naive term.

Are there those among us who play the gold like a day trader? I would probably do it if I had the kind of spare change most people dream of. Let's see, a few simple calculations, 304000 worth of gold today, modify the price by two dollars an ounce, and it becomes 306000 after a week let's say. So there's two grand in a week, not bad but there are lower priced stocks that could pay you much more than that with a little trading. Perhaps there are, but even though you might be dealing with paper contracts, there is still a somewhat ligitimate link to gold there and it might provide a wee bit more comfort in safety than stocks. I know you paper haters have a thought or two about that, but look at it this way, I'm a crafty individual with a little experience in a lot of feilds, if someone sells me a promisary note and fails to deliver I will get whatever was promised through legal means or not. Either way, those who promise and don't deliver will pay one way or another.

So, after all my blah blah blahing, the question remains. What price will you dump your gold for fiat at? Or will you purchase something directly with your gold? Enquiring mind needs to know.

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.
Boilermaker
Windfall Profits Tax coming to UK
http://www.platts.com/archives/61415.htmlLondon (Platts)--18Apr2002

The UK's new tax regime for North Sea production could cost the UK offshore industry an extra $3-bil by 2010 and hamper mature and marginal field projects, UK oil industry group UKOOA said Thursday.
UK chancellor Gordon Brown unveiled Wednesday a surprise 10% levy on North Sea oil and gas profits to help boost public revenues as part of his 2002 budget. He also said he planned to lift a 12.5% oil royalty charged on pre-1982 fields and increase capital allowances on first-year investment in the North Sea. But oil companies said the new tax was likely to damage new investment in the North Sea. "This is very disappointing and there is a big risk it will discourage investment over the longer term," a BP spokesman said. The oil major said earlier it expected the tax to cost the company GBP120-mil in profits each year.

BP and Shell saw their stocks lose up to 1.7% in London after Brown's announcement as investors factored in the impact of the tax on the majors' earnings. In early Thursday trade, however, BP and Shell's stocks recovered most of the losses.

Smaller producers, however, such as the BG Group, which produces about 55% of its oil and gas from the North Sea, saw their shares fall by up to 6.75 pence, or 2.2%, in early London trading. "We haven't had time to go through the number, but [the impact] will be significant for us," a company spokesman said. Shell said it was "very surprised" at the new tax. "The other proposals are welcome but are not expected to come close to offsetting the supplementary charge," a Shell spokeswoman said.

Comment:
This is what will happen to any commodity industry that suddenly gets healthy. A precursor of the gold industry.
Boilermaker
Environmental Hazards
snippet;
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Jan. 31, 2002 - American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) today outlined its strategy for addressing the unexpected changes in plume appearance encountered at the Gen. James M. Gavin Power Plant last summer. Details of AEP's plans were presented to community officials from the nearby village of Cheshire, Ohio, as part of the company's ongoing efforts to share information on the situation with the community and its leaders.

AEP�s senior vice president of operations and technical services, John F. Norris Jr., said the company will install three separate injection systems on Gavin�s 1,300-megawatt Unit 2 by May, the start of the 2002 ozone season. AEP estimates the capital investment for the installation will be approximately $7 million.

The new systems will inhibit the formation of sulfur trioxide (SO3) during the combustion and environmental control processes. Operation of the unit�s new Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) system, in conjunction with the plant�s flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system, increased the concentration of SO3 and was responsible for the changed appearance of the plume.

Gavin Plant�s SCR systems were completed and placed in service in May 2001 to allow the company to earn "early reduction credits" to address new federal environmental requirements to substantially reduce the plant�s emission of nitrogen oxide (NOx). The systems are designed to operate during the five-month ozone season from May through September.

Norris indicated that the company will install the new systems on Unit 2 and bypass the SCR system on Unit 1 during 2002. "Our goal is to first demonstrate the SO3 solution on one unit and gain important operating experience before making the commitment to install and operate the system on both units," Norris said.

During the startup of the systems in 2001, plant employees and area residents began to notice that the exhaust plume from the 830-foot-high stack had changed. Ironically, the change seemed to be connected to the recent installation and operation of Gavin�s SCR systems in conjunction with the operation of the FGD systems. Subsequent analysis confirmed that the same mechanism used in the SCR systems to reduce NOx produced a small increase in the level of SO3. The situation was compounded by weather conditions that periodically forced the stack exhaust plume to the ground producing a "blue haze" at ground level that many residents found irritating.

AEP Response:
Washington (Platts Coal Outlook) 18Apr2002

American Electric Power said it will buy the Ohio community of Cheshire for $20 million "to enhance the operations" of the Gavin power plant. The purchase involves payments to the town's 221 residents so they can relocate and AEP can expand Gavin's barge and emissions-control facilities. Gavin is now receiving coal strictly by barge as the plant's dedicated Meigs operations have been closed. The plant now needs expanded barge facilities for that reason, as well as to handle shipments of lime for scrubbers, a utility official said. The real estate purchase�which has not been closed� calls for AEP to acquire about 200 parcels that make up the village adjacent to the two-unit, 2,600-MW plant. With that purchase, AEP gains "the potential for expanding our barge unloading capabilities to facilitate fuel deliveries," said Bill Sigmon, AEP senior vice president.
"[The purchase decision] also addresses the concerns of our neighbors, who experienced unanticipated conditions during the initial operation of new pollution control systems at Gavin last year," he said, referring to a "blue haze" that occurred as operators started a new selective catalytic reduction system in 2001.

Comment:
Unexpected consequences of trying to clean up coal fired boilers. These two boilers each burn about 1000 tons coal per hour to produce 1300MW's and must remain on line. Village must go.
Goldfly
My Gosh.....
YGMDid you use "Goldfly" and "Great thinker" in the same sentence?

Get ahold of yourself man...!

YGM
Goldfly....
Good to see you.....Didn't see your handle in the contest names, but then I do need glasses. Went back to 98 in the archives today and took a walk down memory lane. Seems like yesterday almost. So many great days here, then & now....Take care Mr. ModestGoldfly.

PS: if you've been posting of late, it's my memory going w/ these eyes. Must be mad cow disease or ?
:>))
Sierra Madre
Thinking is a hard thing to do...

Evidently, judging from the marketing effort by the U.S. Mint to sell the "Golden Dollar" for more than it's worth.

Let see now, if I buy 25 of the pieces of yellow-colored metal called the "Sacagawea dollar", they will cost me $1.42 each.

If I buy 2,000 - that's a two thousand dollar purchase, not exactly pocket change - the gold-en dollar will cost me $1.095 cents - say $1.10 each.

Suppose I want to spend one of these bits of base metal, I'll have to convince the seller of something that it's worth $1.42 in the first case, or $1.10 in the second case. So what are the prospects for being able to do this? Zero.

Are they trying to sell the Sacagaweas like baseball cards?

On the other hand, why make the coins evidently falsifications of a real, solid gold coin? Why produce coins which are imitations of what is supposed to be a "barbarous metal"? Isn't everyone supposed to FORGET ABOUT GOLD?

These people are shooting themselves in the foot! Advertising for the REAL stuff. Get it at usagold.com!
.......

Now to Bobby Mundell, Nobeler working for the Establishment. It is clear the Establishment wants to abolish all other currencies except the dollar from the Western Hemisphere.

"The better to eat you with, said the Wolf".

The dollar as the world currency means the U.S. empire gobbles up the wealth of the world. If it is restricted to the Western Hemisphere, it means the total economic rape of the Hemisphere.

I think there is a race against Time by the Establishment. They can see the writing on the wall. In a short time, by historical standards, the dollar will fall drastically, and hobble U.S. efforts at world domination. Hard to fight the WAT all over the world, with a worthless dollar!

Necessary to get the M.E. oil, by whatever it takes, including unrestrained use of nukes, while the dollar still buys something. The window of opportunity is closing by the day.

Ditto for the WEstern Hemisphere, "The Americas - for the Americans".

....

I remember hearing about "colored currency (notes)" about ten years ago. Eyewitness reports of having seen the stuff, being printed in huge amounts at least at one place, in Texas, and distributed in 18-wheelers all over the counry.

The existence was strenously denied, of course. Then, little by little reports came out of a new type of dollar notes, which we now have. The colored currency was forgotten. Evidently, it was forgotten but not abandoned. Now reports surface again.

Such colored currency portends some drastic measures, somewhere down the road.

Sierra
Black Blade
O'Neill To Congress: Stop Debt Limit Madness
http://mktnews.nasdaq.com/newsv2/pullstory.asp?textpath=D:\www\Nasdaq\news\35\2002\04\18\200204180815DOWJONESDJONLINE000439.html&usymbol=9999&site=nasdaq
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill expressed his frustration Wednesday with Congress for dragging its feet on passing legislation that would boost the federal debt limit. "Why can't we stop this madness?," O'Neill asked lawmakers during an appearance before a House Appropriations subcommittee. O'Neill was referring to the political wrangling that is often involved when Congress has to vote on legislation to raise the debt ceiling, which currently stands at $5.95 trillion.

Earlier Wednesday, Treasury announced that it was now getting enough tax revenue that the ceiling won't be likely be reached until June or July. On April 4, the Treasury had to tap into government employee pension funds to keep from hitting the limit. Treasury said it has repaid that money. But eventually Treasury will "run out of tricks," O'Neill said, and the U.S. will risk defaulting on the national debt unless Congress raises the limit.


Black Blade: "Running out of tricks" � That speaks volumes!
Black Blade
First week of net storage injection shows slightly tightening US gas market
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=141444
By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Apr. 18 -- The latest natural gas storage injection data suggest a slightly tightening market despite a storage overhang left over from the heating season during what is normally a seasonally slack period. However, analysts still point to the likelihood of near-term downward pressure on gas prices. "The current level of natural gas in storage is like getting a 6-week head start on the injection season," Murry said. "If we do not have abnormally warm weather in the key areas using gas for the air conditioning load, the market fundamentals of this supply in storage will help hold down prices during the summer."

"The net injection compares with the net 9 bcf withdrawal [the prior] week, 64 bcf injection last year, 25 bcf withdrawal the year before and [Wall Street's] 25-30 bcf average estimate," Barone reported.


Black Blade: However, the storage levels last year were drawn down on increased demand for air conditioning, drought in the Pacific NW, and high demand from the New Economy. Current storage is about equal to the 1999 storage levels. There is also increased demand overall and more storage facilities have been built to meet that demand thereby increasing the storage capacity. Add to this the NOAA has determined that this summer may be much hotter than usual due to the effects of a building El Ni--o weather pattern � also likely to cripple the hydroelectric generating capacity of the drought ravaged North East.
Black Blade
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Energy Prices Going Up

Another concern for the markets and economy is rising energy prices. Due to a lack of refining capacity, summer gasoline prices, which have soared 27% in the past three months, are expected to head even higher by this summer. The price could spike as high as $3 a gallon if there are any supply disruptions. What is making it difficult for refiners to supply the markets is that the U.S. has 50 different environmental standards for refining gasoline. The gasoline used in Chicago is different than the gasoline used in Detroit or Los Angeles. This prevents refiners from using one standard and making long production runs that could ease up on shortages in one part of the country. The multiple environmental standards imposed by the EPS and other environmental organizations in different states are creating a shortage of gasoline, driving up prices. Energy experts say the solution to part of the problem is to have one standard for environmental friendly gasoline instead of the Heinz 57 approach that we now have.

Other factors causing gas prices to rise are local, state, and Federal taxes and fees. Recently, I filled my tank at a cost of $1.679 a gallon. Of that amount, $0.89 went to local, state and Federal government. The companies that explored for the gas, shipped it, refined it and sold it at the retail level received 47% of the price of the gallon of gasoline, while the government, which did nothing, received 53%. There is something wrong with that picture.


Black Blade: Today the Senate shelved the "Energy Plan". There will be no drilling in ANWR. They are also working to prevent drilling off the coast of Florida, and various other parts of the US. There is also an effort to cut back on "carbon credits". Then the House passed legislation to ban all Iraqi oil imports to the US (meaningless but "feel good" legislation). Energy independence is impossible anyway, however, we are backing ourselves into an ever smaller corner. On the other hand as one in the energy business, I could profit quite handsomely on the misery of Americans over the next few years � in fact I plan on it. Maybe we all can profit as the long touted "economic recovery" becomes as illusory as a wisp of smoke with our stockpile of precious metals. Better get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program.
Mr Gresham
Sierra Madre: Mundell
"The better to eat you with, said the Wolf".

My thoughts exactly, except in my version, the Wolf invites Mundell over for dinner, then gives him a choice which end of the fork he wants to be on...

Black Blade
Jobless claims rise
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/18/news/economy/economy/index.htm

New claims top 400,000 again; index of leading indicators weaker than forecasts.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - New jobless claims edged up in the United States last week, the government said Thursday, pointing to more weakness in the labor market and reinforcing the notion that the Federal Reserve might leave interest rates lower for longer.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 445,000 last week from a revised 444,000 the prior week, the Labor Department reported. It was the third straight week that claims came in above 400,000, a level pointing to a sluggish job market. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 415,000 new claims.


Black Blade: BLS trickery and statistical massage has not worked well this week (again). A level above 400,000 is considered recessionary. In spite of tricks like "Seasonality" the statistical massage did not help. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow as corporations look for ways to cut costs in an environment of declining earnings.
Black Blade
SBC Communications Expects to Cut 4,000 More Jobs This Year
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APL70UhPmU0JDIENv

Snippit:

San Antonio, April 18 (Bloomberg) -- SBC Communications Inc., which is lowering costs after first-quarter sales fell, expects to eliminate 4,000 more jobs this year, Chief Financial Officer Randall Stephenson said in an interview.

SBC, the second-biggest U.S. local-phone operator, already cut 4,000 jobs in the first quarter. Since September, the company has eliminated a total of 10,000 positions.


Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows with more "Phone Bones".
Black Blade
Hong Kong unemployment soars
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1936000/1936882.stm
Hong Kong's jobless total is rising

Snippit:

Unemployment in Hong Kong has surged to its highest level for at least 20 years, official figures have revealed. The unemployment rate hit 7.0% in the January-to-March period, up from 6.8% during the three months to February, Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department said. The latest figure, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 6.9%, is the highest since the current system of measuring joblessness was introduced in 1981. And analysts warned the figure could rise

Black Blade: The "Bone Piles" grow around the world.
Canuck
All
http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfmDon Coxe's 'latest call'. Very good this week; discusses the possibility of the 'monetary nuclear bomb'.
Canuck
@ BB, Anyone
BB,

Saw your link to the WGC yesterday reflecting 'offical held gold' as at Apr. 2002. The numbers look to me to be the same, 32,000 tonnes.

What's up with that?

I thought he had CB's going down but yet they are flat, giant shell game going on?
timbervision
Joanne
I had to get a trial membership to see the posts. Wow, was that unexpected. Its good though to see the message of gold's value being made public more and more.
Black Blade
Re: Canuck - Central Bank Sales

Virtually all CB sales are from one Central BAnk to another. In effect, yes it is a giant "shell game". That's why when people like Sheryl Einhorn of Barron's and others report that Gold prices are capped by CB sales are really being dishonest by not reporting the "whole story". The recent BoE auction sales were only by "invitation only" and then only to LBMA members. The Dutch, Belgians, Argentines, etc. all did the same and the Swiss are doing the much the same selling only to CBs. Very little if any makes it to the publis and only very rarely does a miniscule amount ever make it to investment houses like Merril Lynch or some obscure hedge fund. Hope that helps.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
slingshot
RobotGuy Msg# 73801
Dumping Gold For FIATOr are you looking for an exit?

Take the total amount of purchase of gold and silver.
Decide how much gold you want to keep vs. the amount of gold needed to pay the total amount of purchase making your gold and silver repaid and free so to speak. Divide the amount of gold into purchase amount and that should give you your exit price for gold.

With your free PM's you do what you want to. Its free and clear and gold go low or high and you still wouldn't lose.

Gold is dirt cheap! Silver is dirt cheap! Soon Real estate will be dirt cheap and gold and silver expensive. Buy island and do my own survivor thing. :o) Ya HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO


Slingshot-------------------------<>
Gandalf the White
OFFICIAL LISTING of POG Guessing Contest !!! <;-)
The COMEX JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTI know you all are eager to see this "Listing", but first I wish to make some personal comments. As luck would have it, today I was requested to assist on a project "in the field" and spent the whole of the day (7 a.m. to 4 p.m.) away from my office computer. However, I was able to borrow a site computer and get "on-line" for a few minutes. I see that my inattention has caused some problems and I do apologize for those. BUT, when you see this "Listing", you should be, like myself, AMAZED ! ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY entries ! MANY are new WELCOMED FORMER LURKERS that finally decided to get "Registered" and post their first post. Also, I am told, that there were many lurkers that attempted to "Register" and be able to enter, BUT were thwarted by minor errors and the clock running faster than the busy USAGOLD Forum staff could complete the "paperwork". I would also like to thank each and everyone of you for minimizing the effort required in TRYING to keep track of the GUESSES.
The FEW potential problem entries are given the symbols of asterisks (****) instead of Dollar signs ($$$$) and shall be given "some consideration" if my entry of $308.1 is not the winning Settlement price. <;-)

We all now await the Friday COMEX Settlement Price, but FYI, the Settlement Price on Thursday was $305.2
====

FINAL REPORT !!

GUESSES (to date) in order of DESCENDING Value
---
$$$$ 8,752 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (04/15/02; 18:54:16MT msg#: 73511

$$$$ 999.0 $$$$ Cavan Man (04/14/02; 14:20:46MT msg#: 73403

$$$$ 666.0 $$$$ LeSin (4/18/02; 05:29:53MT msg#: 73714

$$$$ 555.5 $$$$ A Canadian (4/17/02; 17:12:48MT msg#: 73651

$$$$ 352.0 $$$$ techbull.... (4/17/02; 08:33:26MT msg#: 73610

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Shermag (04/14/02; 11:44:09MT msg#: 73389

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (04/17/02; 19:58:46MT msg#: 73667

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (04/14/02; 16:40:44MT msg#: 73413

$$$$ 338.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (04/14/02; 10:14:45MT msg#: 73381

$$$$ 337.3 $$$$ goldquest (04/14/02; 20:31:14MT msg#: 73429

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ milos (04/17/02; 23:37:55MT msg#: 73689

$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ Tommy P (4/18/02; 08:03:27MT msg#: 73735

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (04/14/02; 18:07:30MT msg#: 73420

$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ SilverSurfer (04/14/02; 22:16:52MT msg#: 73442

$$$$ 321.3 $$$$ Believer (04/14/02; 13:19:20MT msg#: 73398

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Henri (04/14/02; 21:39:03MT msg#: 73440

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ JackFlash (04/18/02; 11:47:35MT msg#: 73773

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ Basil (4/17/02; 13:33:10MT msg#: 73627

$$$$ 317.4 $$$$ Boilermaker (04/14/02; 10:30:44MT msg#: 73382

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ BLUENOSE (4/17/02; 13:01:12MT msg#: 73624

$$$$ 315.2 $$$$ JA (04/18/02; 11:50:57MT msg#: 73776

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ turkey hunter (4/17/02; 16:02:45MT msg#: 73646

$$$$ 314.2 $$$$ Chrusos (04/16/02; 13:22:42MT msg#: 73552

$$$$ 313.9 $$$$ Pizz (4/15/02; 09:13:34MT msg#: 73469

$$$$ 313.4 $$$$ MidEastGold (4/18/02; 09:23:42MT msg#: 73751

$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357

$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375

$$$$ 311.5 $$$$ White Rose (4/18/02; 07:44:38MT msg#: 73733

$$$$ 311.1 $$$$ auenboy (04/17/02; 20:55:14MT msg#: 73677

$$$$ 310.9 $$$$ Buena Fe (4/18/02; 08:06:38MT msg#: 73736

$$$$ 310.5 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (4/18/02; 00:51:45MT msg#: 73700

$$$$ 310.1 $$$$ Neubie (4/18/02; 08:41:32MT msg#: 73745

$$$$ 309.9 $$$$ R Powell (4/18/02; 08:29:10MT msg#: 73742

$$$$ 309.6 $$$$ Brett Woods (04/14/02; 23:17:08MT msg#: 73445

$$$$ 309.4 $$$$ timbervision (04/17/02; 21:23:07MT msg#: 73679

$$$$ 309.1 $$$$ G$ (4/17/02; 11:07:04MT msg#: 73620

$$$$ 308.8 $$$$ mudr (04/18/02; 10:38:38MT msg#: 73765

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ THX-1138 (04/18/02; 11:50:28MT msg#: 73775
$$$$ 308.5 $$$$ nickel62 (04/14/02; 12:48:06MT msg#: 73394
$$$$ 308.4 $$$$ AUthentic (4/18/02; 09:29:06MT msg#: 73753
$$$$ 308.3 $$$$ Hedgehog via email to the Castle just b4 Deadline.
$$$$ 308.2 $$$$ Frosty (4/15/02; 07:01:17MT msg#: 73460
$$$$ 308.1 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/13/02; 21:55:45MT msg#: 73351

$$$$ 307.9 $$$$ da2g (04/14/02; 04:54:01MT msg#: 73370
$$$$ 307.7 $$$$ Canuck Gold (04/18/02; 10:04:37MT msg#: 73758

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Cumber (4/17/02; 09:39:08MT msg#: 73615

$$$$ 307.3 $$$$ Pippin (04/14/02; 13:54:20MT msg#: 73401
$$$$ 307.2 $$$$ Rock (04/14/02; 07:50:56MT msg#: 73372
$$$$ 307.1 $$$$ Voyager (04/18/02; 11:48:25MT msg#: 73774
$$$$ 307.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (04/18/02; 10:36:12MT msg#: 73764
$$$$ 306.9 $$$$ wiley (04/14/02; 09:53:57MT msg#: 73380

$$$$ 306.6 $$$$ slingshot (04/14/02; 08:32:51MT msg#: 73374

$$$$ 306.4 $$$$ The Hoople (4/17/02; 13:23:27MT msg#: 73626
$$$$ 306.3 $$$$ cwa (4/17/02; 14:35:39MT msg#: 73635

$$$$ 306.1 $$$$ jlfletc (4/18/02; 09:11:03MT msg#: 73749
**** 306.06 *** zorro (04/18/02; 10:53:53MT msg#: 73769
$$$$ 306.0 $$$$ Grubstaker (04/14/02; 00:10:58MT msg#: 73360

$$$$ 305.8 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (4/17/02; 15:40:05MT msg#: 73640

$$$$ 305.5 $$$$ YGM (04/14/02; 19:01:15MT msg#: 73424

$$$$ 305.3 $$$$ CoBra(too) (4/17/02; 15:19:39MT msg#: 73638
$$$$ 305.2 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (4/18/02; 07:17:50MT msg#: 73727
**** 305.2 **** 24Wortel (04/18/02; 10:18:57MT msg#: 73760
$$$$ 305.1 $$$$ Waverider (4/18/02; 08:23:35MT msg#: 73740
$$$$ 305.0 $$$$ Albatros (04/14/02; 12:27:49MT msg#: 73393
$$$$ 304.9 $$$$ compwiz4u (4/18/02; 07:08:37MT msg#: 73724
$$$$ 304.8 $$$$ Yukon (4/17/02; 15:18:31MT msg#: 73637
$$$$ 304.7 $$$$ RobertG (04/18/02; 10:47:24MT msg#: 73768
$$$$ 304.6 $$$$ Little Feet (04/18/02; 11:41:52MT msg#: 73772
$$$$ 304.5 $$$$ VanRip (04/14/02; 18:50:11MT msg#: 73422
$$$$ 304.4 $$$$ Black Blade (4/18/02; 04:31:59MT msg#: 73713
**** 304.4 **** Carl H (04/18/02; 11:59:10MT msg#: 73777
**** 304.4 **** Goldfinger 2 (04/18/02; 12:34:34MT msg#: 73783

$$$$ 304.2 $$$$ luckypierre (4/17/02; 15:28:04MT msg#: 73639

$$$$ 304.0 $$$$ Creosote (04/14/02; 14:28:14MT msg#: 73405

$$$$ 303.8 $$$$ Trapper (04/14/02; 16:29:23MT msg#: 73412

$$$$ 303.6 $$$$ sstins (04/18/02; 00:03:12MT msg#: 73693
$$$$ 303.5 $$$$ EagleOne (4/16/02; 07:28:55MT msg#: 73540
$$$$ 303.4 $$$$ ProGold (4/18/02; 01:38:14MT msg#: 73705
$$$$ 303.3 $$$$ Shanti (4/18/02; 00:55:58MT msg#: 73701
$$$$ 303.2 $$$$ 18K (4/15/02; 03:57:31MT msg#: 73456
$$$$ 303.1 $$$$ Trurl (04/17/02; 20:36:58MT msg#: 73674
$$$$ 303.0 $$$$ Golden Bear (4/18/02; 05:51:50MT msg#: 73716
$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392
$$$$ 302.8 $$$$ Nomad (4/17/02; 19:39:04MT msg#: 73664
$$$$ 302.7 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (4/17/02; 19:00:39MT msg#: 73661
$$$$ 302.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (4/17/02; 13:34:25MT msg#: 73628
$$$$ 302.5 $$$$ Just waking up (4/15/02; 01:45:09MT msg#: 73451
$$$$ 302.4 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (04/17/02; 21:38:16MT msg#: 73680
**** 302.35**** Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (4/18/02; 04:11MT#: 73710
$$$$ 302.3 $$$$ Graefin (4/15/02; 15:17:11MT msg#: 73490
$$$$ 302.2 $$$$ Simply Me (04/18/02; 11:30:56MT msg#: 73771
$$$$ 302.1 $$$$ Au-some (4/17/02; 18:53:17MT msg#: 73659
$$$$ 302.0 $$$$ GuyGold (04/17/02; 22:36:17MT msg#: 73687
$$$$ 301.9 $$$$ Mythical (04/15/02; 21:37:22MT msg#: 73521

$$$$ 301.7 $$$$ Scarab (4/17/02; 18:38:39MT msg#: 73656
$$$$ 301.6 $$$$ Canuck (4/18/02; 04:28:15MT msg#: 73712

$$$$ 301.4 $$$$ MOJO-JOJO (4/15/02; 01:31:20MT msg#: 73450

$$$$ 301.0 $$$$ Gimli_ (04/16/02; 20:43:05MT msg#: 73573

$$$$ 300.9 $$$$ Econoclast (4/18/02; 00:14:43MT msg#: 73696
$$$$ 300.8 $$$$ Jin-Yin (4/18/02; 05:56:49MT msg#: 73718
$$$$ 300.7 $$$$ Maiden Fan (04/17/02; 23:43:13MT msg#: 73690
$$$$ 300.6 $$$$ Truthcaster (4/15/02; 11:49:02MT msg#: 73482
$$$$ 300.5 $$$$ Alchemist (04/15/02; 18:19:35MT msg#: 73507

$$$$ 300.2 $$$$ Bound Spirit (4/17/02; 18:23:38MT msg#: 73655
$$$$ 300.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (4/18/02; 06:17:06MT msg#: 73720
$$$$ 300.0 $$$$ RAP (04/14/02; 16:14:25MT msg#: 73411
$$$$ 299.9 $$$$ Jon (04/14/02; 20:02:55MT msg#: 73426
$$$$ 299.8 $$$$ Guided (4/17/02; 13:44:12MT msg#: 73631
$$$$ 299.7 $$$$ Beowulf (04/16/02; 14:44:08MT msg#: 73556

$$$$ 299.5 $$$$ auric (04/17/02; 22:03:57MT msg#: 73683
$$$$ 299.4 $$$$ jalljatiri (04/16/02; 14:28:52MT msg#: 73554

$$$$ 299.0 $$$$ FluorideCommie (4/17/02; 17:21:53MT msg#: 73652

$$$$ 298.8 $$$$ mikal (04/17/02; 21:57:25MT msg#: 73682

$$$$ 298.6 $$$$ balzac (04/14/02; 11:35:31MT msg#: 73388

$$$$ 298.4 $$$$ Boxman (4/17/02; 16:38:30MT msg#: 73649

$$$$ 298.1 $$$$ Topaz (4/15/02; 03:53:55MT msg#: 73455

$$$$ 297.9 $$$$ The CoinGuy (04/14/02; 17:06:13MT msg#: 73417

$$$$ 297.7 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (04/15/02; 19:43:42MT msg#: 73516
$$$$ 297.6 $$$$ Christian (04/15/02; 18:11:44MT msg#: 73506

$$$$ 296.6 $$$$ Knallgold (04/14/02; 11:17:22MT msg#: 73386

$$$$ 294.0 $$$$ Rockgrabber (4/15/02; 11:08:57MT msg#: 73480

$$$$ 292.7 $$$$ BILLYG (04/14/02; 21:24:01MT msg#: 73436
$$$$ 291.1 $$$$ 4gold (4/17/02; 04:30:37MT msg#: 73599

$$$$ 274.3 $$$$ IGWA (04/14/02; 23:12:32MT msg#: 73444
---
THE RULES --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 19th of April.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$$$543.2$$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany your prognostication.
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest guess --
An Argentine golden "Argentino" !!!!! -- and to the persons with the next two closest guesses - An one ounce Canadian SILVER Maple Leaf !!!
=====
<;-)


Pizz
Sierra - old colored money rumors
Just as soon as I try to get my mind going a bit positive, you jog my memory on the colored currency - I recall the same rumor, cause Texas really sticks out in my mind - 1991 or there abouts - right after the first major downleg in Japan.

I was very bearish then, thinking our current senario was to take place then (if we'd had a decent recession then, we'd be a lot better off now, but that's water under the bridge).

At the time, both myself and a few financial peers speculated that it was probably true, and would be used in a worse case banking crisis. A stop gap plan for a dollar crash if the Japanese started selling our bonds to support their banks. Convert all internal debt and currency to new dollar, let specific or all foreign debt burn.

Thanks for the mind jog, cause if the rumor's correct and our memories are, this won't be a planned move in a positive direction, but a totally defensive move for a more out of control senario.

(Belgian - I still remember your comment on stubborn denial by US to the bitter end supporting sometype of fiat dollar - still like to think your wrong, but. . . . .)

Back to the mental drawing board, my jigsaw puzzle just had another box of lose pieces thrown on the board.

Pizz
Black Blade
Qwest Warns on 2002, Plans to Cut Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rt/020418/telecoms_qwest_outlook_1.html
Snippit:

DENVER (Reuters) - Voice and data services company Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE:Q - news) said on Thursday it will cut 2,000 jobs and warned its first-quarter and full-year 2002 results will fall below expectations due to slack demand and the weak economy.


Black Blade: More "Phone Bones" shuffled off to the growing "Bone Pile".
YGM
Mundell on Gold and Monetary System of 21st Century
http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/LBE.htmDraw your own conclusions....YGM
Black Blade
PPG cutting 1,000 jobs, profits down 39 percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020418/chemicals_ppg_earns_2.html
Snippit:

PITTSBURGH, April 18 (Reuters) - Chemical and paint maker PPG Industries Inc.(NYSE:PPG) said on Thursday its first-quarter income fell 39 percent as it struggled with lower sales and took charges to eliminate 1,000 jobs and close plants.


Black Blade: Oh my, more "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile".
silvester
Sierra Madre, Thinking is a hard thing to do...

We're paying in excess of $300 for a $50 Gold Eagle because we think it's cheap. Maybe they think copper is worth $1.42 per Sacagawea?
Black Blade
Argentine Tears � Appended

I had been thinking about how the Argentine economic collapse would alter thinking about economic difficulties around the world and especially in the US ever since I wrote the post "Argentine Tears". These interesting facts appear to solidify my thoughts and add to my position that we will not learn anything from the Argentine economic collapse (though we should). Throughout history we have seen economic disasters play out over and over, and yet the same mistakes are made over and over. Whether it is Tulipmania (Holland 1630's), Mississippi Bubble (1719-17200, South Sea Bubble (1720), the Crash of 1929, The Japanese Real Estate Bubble (1989-present), or the Dot.com Mania Bubble Bust (2000-present), the point is we never do learn.

I think that perhaps it may be better to say that the main lesson that we learn from bubbles and crashes is that what has been said by Yale Professor of Economics Robert Schiller (author of "Irrational Exuberance"): Human natures continues to be the way it has always been and probably always will be. People always feel that innovation has somehow changed the equation in the way that the market operates".

Of course nothing really changes and the same mistakes are made over and again. We will not learn anything from the problems of Argentina, or Japan, or (insert economic collapse of you choice here).

- Black Blade
sector
Ford's $5.5 Billion Down in a Year...But There "Wasn't a Recession" [Paul O'Neill]
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/18/business/18FORD.html?pagewanted=print&position=topApril 18, 2002
Ford Motor Reports Fourth Consecutive Quarterly Loss
By DANNY HAKIM
DETROIT, April 17 � The Ford Motor Company reported its fourth consecutive quarterly loss today, though its performance was better than analysts expected.

The results were somewhat overshadowed by reports that a top executive was disgruntled and might leave the company. The executive, Wolfgang W. Reitzle, runs the Premier Automotive Group, Ford's luxury arm that oversees brands like Jaguar, Lincoln, Volvo and Aston Martin.

The luxury division is considered crucial to the success of the turnaround plan that Ford officials announced in January, aimed at reviving a company that lost $5.5 billion last year. That plan requires Premier to account for about a third of the company's profits by 2005, up from more than an eighth in 2000.
+
+
+
Excluding special items, like a $708 million charge stemming from changes in accounting rules related to good will, the company lost 6 cents a share. That was ahead of a 15 cents-a-share loss that was the consensus estimate of financial analysts compiled by Thomson Financial/ First Call.

The losses were deepened by the price war among the Big Three as they upped the ante on rebate and financing deals. Ford's United States marketing costs ate up 15.7 percent of its revenue in the first quarter, compared with 12.2 percent a year earlier. The company's sputtering sales of light trucks, which include sport utility vehicles, minivans and pickups, have also cut into its profitability.
+
+
+
"That was partly offset by them earning less than I expected from Ford Credit," he added. Ford Credit, the financing division, has been troubled by an aggressive practice of making risky loans. The unit earned $242 million, down from $406 million a year earlier.

The company's Hertz rental car unit has also struggled along with the rental car industry after the terrorist attacks. It posted a loss of $48 million, compared with a $4 million loss a year earlier.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
No mention of the Nasser disaster Explorer/Firestone.
Doug Nolan will especially love the "...aggressive practice of making risky loans" part.

Here is your barometer of recession...and it just ain't gettin betta.


Black Blade
Phoney Baloney Accounting
Phoney Baloney Accounting

I have discussed some of the problems with the bogus accounting measures in the past. There are other points to consider beyond Pro Forma accounting. There are many examples we can use, and now that this is "Earnings Season" as referred to in the financial media, I will bring up some more dirt.

Stock Options

There has been a lot of discussion whether stock options should be considered an expense. In short stock options are a form of payment in most compensation packages to employees. This compensation however, is kept off the books and worse yet, when these options are exercised the company can count off the amount as a tax deduction. Oracle, Cisco, etc. are notorious for this scam. Former Democrat VP candidate Senator Joseph Lieberman heads the Senate committee that can stop this abuse has instead sided with those corporations who cook the books with this trickery.

On Time Write Offs

This is best illustrated with a notorious example from Cisco. Cisco for years has pulled the wool over the eyes of less than brilliant investors. Last May Cisco announced that they were going to write off $2.25 Billion in obsolete inventory. CFO Larry Carter told analysts in a conference call that they would destroy most of the inventory. Two quarters later Cisco had a net loss of $268 million on a 32% drop on sales � "abracadabra" - $290 million suddenly and magically appeared as clear profit on the books. How the hell did that happen? It turns out that a lot of "destroyed" inventory was � well not destroyed but rather sold. It is not illegal � but it certainly dishonest.

Synthetic Leases

This is another scam that works for those who cook the books. Recently Microsoft announced a $142 million real estate deal to expand the Redmond Washington campus. Investors won't find this expense (and many more) on the corporate balance sheet. Why" Because of a scam called "synthetic leasing".

A synthetic Leasing is an off balance sheet transaction that allows companies to control real estate without having to show it as an asset on the books. The downside with owning costly assets is that you have to write off depreciation against earnings. What Mr. Softy does is find a bank that buys the property and leases it back (usually with up to 100% collateral up front). All completely "off the books".

I'm not just picking on Microsoft. Synthetic leases helped Cisco hide $1.1 billion in synthetic leases. Novell did the same for properties in Provo, UT and San Jose, CA to the tune of $223 million, and Inktomi hid $120 million in expenses (restricted).

Swaps

The most famous one to come to light so far (dreamed up by Arthur Andersen no less) is the concept of swaps practiced by Qwest Communications and now bankrupt Global Crossing. Essentially this is where two companies trade assets or services of equal value and count them as gains on the books. These two telecoms traded access on each others communication lines and booked the value of each trade as revenue. The legality is in question as an SEC investigation is underway.


There are many more legal ways to screw the investor, but these are among the more egregious and they will get a lot of exposure in coming months if the SEC really does dig up the dirt on dishonest accounting.

- Black Blade
Waverider
Nortel slashes jobs
http://globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/D,B,B/20020418/wnortel?hub=businessBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory_Bus.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wnortel&date=20020418&archive=RTGAM&site=Business&ad_page_name=breakingnews-businessSnippit:
"Nortel Networks Corp. announced Thursday it would cut 3,000 jobs as it met lowered earnings expectations, and provided little hope the current tech slump is over, saying that revenue will not improve in the next quarter.

When the latest cuts are completed by the end of the second quarter, Nortel will have 50,000 fewer jobs than it had 16 months ago."

Waverider: The Canuck contribution to the Bone Pile - 3,000 strong!
Simply Me
@Black Blade: Arthur Anderson didn't invent Swaps....
Beavis and Butthead invented swaps!! I saw it on an episode ten or fifteen years ago.

Beavis and Butthead each have a box of candy bars to sell for $1/bar as part of a school fundraiser. So they take the boxes of candy home and both plop down on the sofa to watch heavy metal music videos, of course.

After awhile a hungry Beavis gets a dollar out and buys a candy bar from Butthead. A few minutes later Butthead uses the same dollar to "buy" a candy bar from Beavis. And so it goes, with the same dollar going back and forth till both boxes are empty.

Then the next day, they both had to explain to their history teacher how they had sold two boxes of candy and had only one dollar to show for it.

Maybe an Arthur Anderson exec. was watching TV with his teenaged son a few years back. I can just see the AA exec. slapping his forehead and saying, "Geez...that's it!! I finally have the solution to that accounting problem!!"

Maybe he can hire Beavis and Butthead to explain to the SEC how it all really works out~!

Thanks for all you do.
Simply


Black Blade
Re: Simply Me - Swaps

I almost hate to admit it, but I saw the same Beavis and Butthead episode. I still think that was a great show. Probably because I actually knew some people like that when I was younger (OUCH!). Cheers!

- Black Blade
Mr Gresham
Simply Me
It's possible they (B & B) already work there (at the SEC), d'ya think?
The CoinGuy
Looks like Eliot Spitzer(New York AG) may no longer be a lone wolf...
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/17/news/companies/merrill/index.htm
SEC may join analyst investigation

Federal regulators may take part in the investigation of alleged analyst conflicts of interest.
April 17, 2002: 8:13 PM EDT



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Securities and Exchange Commission may be joining New York's investigation into brokerage analysts allegedly giving misleading stock ratings because of investment banking relationships with the companies they analyze.

(Rest of the article at the link)


Comment: Was wondering where the SEC was in all of this, looks like Spitzer's getting them off their duff. Nothing like making a regulatory agency look bad to get them motivated. Looking forward to seeing if Pitt has any teeth.


The (physical)CoinGuy
Simply Me
@Black Blade
Aren't you glad we don't use our real names here?

Def Leppard rocks and Gold rules !!
Simply
Simply Me
@ Mr. Gresham
Yeah! Scary thought. From my generation, Abby Hoffman and the like went Peace demonstrations to Wall Street. So now that the Beavis & Butthead generation is hitting thirty...where else are they gonna pop up!
Simply
Simply Me
@Mr. Gresham....one more time
Guess I'm getting a little slow on the uptake in my old age.

I guess we'll know when we see a newsclip on CNN showing Arthur Anderson lawyers carrying boxes of chocolate bars into the SEC hearings instead of charts and graphs.

Simply

PS If I understood Gold Swaps better, I might be laughing even harder. Is Mr. Greenspan a B&B fan??....naahhhh




Sierra Madre
Looking at the charts...

If you'll click on "U.S. Dollar" on the square at the top of this page, you'll go to the ino.com charts page. Very interesting. Click on the Dollar there, and you can get a chart for the dollar for the past 12 months.

I'm not a "chartist" by any means, but just looking at the 12 month chart and the 50 and 200 day moving averages, you can see the dollar has fallen below both. From what I have picked up about "charting" it appears to me the next stop is down around 1.15, and after that, its about 1.12/1.13. After that, who knows!

Look at the 12 month gold chart, and you see we are in a definite up-trend.

The powers that be must be desperate at this point. A devaluation is looming right ahead! The enormous trade gap is mortal.

When devaluations appear to threaten, there is usually, from my experience, nothing to be done but to allow it to happen. Britain threw billions of dollar reserves into the market back in '92, and had to devalue anyway. I was in Spain at the time, and it was obvious to me that would happen. Soros saw it and acted, made billions. It's not in my character to enter those speculations, so I just watched it happen.

Mexico's President L--pez Portillo made a big mistake thnking the price of oil would continue climbing past $40/barrel back in his term of office, 76-82. The bottom fell out of the oil market and the peso was threatened with a devaluation. He swore he would "defend the peso like a dog". He lost. Wherever he went, after he left office, people would bark, reminding him of the mess he made of the economy.

The Fed and the Treasury are now "defending the dollar like dogs". They will lose. They are throwing gold at the market, in this case. Same situation. The collapse of the dollar is inevitable. Gold will rise strongly. And once the dollar is seen as less than Divine, there is no telling where the devaluation will stop, as a run into gold MAY take place. In that case, think of thousands.

Thomas A. Edison: "There is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the trouble of thinking." (I think I got it right.)

Sierra
Mr Gresham
YGM, Simply Me
http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/LBE.htmYGM -- Thanks for the Mundell link -- it was a good read. I don't think I can ever get enough history, but he puts it in such understandable ways. Sure he's an academic?

Simply Me -- that's way outa my league. No TV here, I have not volunteered to receive the cultural assault, though I'm sure it will infiltrate soon enough as young'un imports it from her friends. Couldn't be more quiet here now, but I'll have to start building that cabin in the woods any day now...
Black Blade
Gold mines warn of supply fall, analysts sceptical
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=21114

Snippit:

Gold mining companies have warned that supplies of the precious metal are poised to fall sharply but analysts believe the world has more than enough gold to prevent major price spikes. The latest producer to sound the alarm bell that the industry was running out of gold faster than it could replace it was world number two miner AngloGold, which predicted that the big discoveries of the last 20 years would run dry.

"Over the next 10 to 15 years, new mine supply is likely to be neutral or negative than it is to increase as it did in the last 15 years," AngloGold CE Bobby Godsell said.

Godsell's admonition was the latest in a string of industry warning lights over the health of future gold supplies which ran at an estimated 2 595 tons last year. Mined output is seen falling to around 2 570 tons this year with no short-term sign of an immediate pick up while jewellery demand alone is running at some 3 000 tons, according to industry experts.

An industry-backed survey released by Toronto-based Beacon Group Advisors this month even warned that supplies would plummet by nearly 30% by the end of the decade unless prices rallied from current levels of around $300 a troy ounce. Some miners, including Gold Fields of South Africa, have even called this conservative.


Black Blade: Stating the obvious.

Black Blade
New gold product in Hong Kong
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1170034,00.html
Snippit:

Hong Kong - Hong Kong's Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society will begin trading a new "kilobar" contract on Friday in a bid to hold its own with the up-and-coming Shanghai gold exchange.

The new product is a spot contract equivalent to 5kg of four nines' gold - 99.99% purity - the most popular grade in Asia.

The Hong Kong exchange aims to match the product to be offered on the future Shanghai gold exchange, thereby enabling arbitrage trading between the two.


Black Blade: All that trouble for barbarous relics.
Black Blade
Chinese Gold Market to Take Off

17Apr2002

The Chinese gold market is poised to take off on the back of market liberalization, governmental deregulation of the domestic gold industry, and restructuring in the local retail and jewelry sector, according to the World Gold Council. Speaking at the WGC annual general meeting in Melbourne Wednesday, WGC Chinese manager Roland Wang said China's reform in the local gold industry was a gradual process. "It is evolutionary rather than revolutionary," he said. He added there was huge market potential for higher gold production and consumption as the Chinese general public, like Japan, have high amounts of savings. "Increased income, concerns for future needs, limited investment channels means there are not enough investment channels for local investors, and they may look towards gold."

The WGC expects 0.1% of private savings moved into gold would see consumption rise by $942-mil, or over 100mt. "The Chinese gold market has entered a new era," Wang said. The official opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in May will increase transparency in the domestic gold industry. "It will have a positive impact on gold production and circulation in China," he said. The WGC has been closely working with the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese central bank in formulating guidelines and rules to assist in deregulation of the industry. This includes abolishment of retail and manufacturing licenses, development of new products, and providing information, suggestions on VAT policies. The central bank has been boosting its gold reserves over the past three years, and at end-2001, held 500mt in gold.


Black Blade: Looks good.






OZ
Black Blade
Just briefly, you must be aware I am sure of the Gata site in chinese. That should help pass on some thruth over there.
This is how I got interested....once I found out about Gata and Lemetropole cafe
cherrs oz123au
Black Blade
Gold buoyant at 2-1/2 week highs, others steady
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020419/markets_precious_report_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Gold remained stable ahead of the weekend, with a weaker dollar, high oil and ongoing Middle East tensions helping to buoy prices at 2-1/2 week highs, traders said. Trade was calmer in Europe on Friday morning after gains late on Thursday when a small tourist plane crashed into a Milan skyscraper, killing at least three people, and raising fears of another attack like September 11 in New York. The Italian Interior Ministry later said the crash was probably an accident.

However, buying interest, due to a weaker dollar against the euro (EUR=), filtered into the market and spot prices looked comfortable trading at their highest level since April 3. "The buying interest is continuing, due to a weaker U.S. dollar against the euro, and is keeping gold at these levels,'' one trader said.

Tension in the Middle East has dominated trade since the end of last month when Israel's military forces re-occupied West Bank towns after a wave of Palestinian suicide bombers. News on Friday that the Israeli army had pulled out of Jenin and the West Bank city's refugee camp did little to quash bullish sentiment, with the next upside target at $307.00. ``In contrast to the previous rallies of the past couple of years, this latest rally has been stronger for longer. We still feel that the sentiment pendulum for gold is swinging towards substantially firmer prices,'' J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd said. ``We reiterate our view that $300 could in the months ahead be viewed more as a price floor than as an impenetrable ceiling,'' they added.

Ongoing tightness in the forward market and angst about the potential disruption of platinum supply, if workers go through with a threat to strike again at Anglo American Platinum's (AMSJ.J) Rustenburg refinery in South Africa, held platinum prices steady around nine-month highs.


Black Blade: This sentiment has been building for the last 2 or 3 weeks. $300.00/oz. looks like floor price. Every attempt to pummel Gold below this level has been short lived. Meanwhile, there has been much more support with buying, especially in Asia (Japanese citizens, Hong Kong investors, and the Mainland Chinese Central Bank).
Black Blade
World gold demand Higher By 8%
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200204/18/eng20020418_94303.shtml

Snippit:

World Gold Demand increasing

According to World Gold Association's report on gold demand trends, individuals' gold demand for investment in the 4th quarter of 2001 registered an 8% growth and this had been mainly due to an unstable world political situation and unsteady financial and economic markets developed throughout the world.

World gold demand in 2001 was placed at 3,235 tons for a cut of 2% less than 2000. Of these, 2,840 tons had been used to an ornament purpose to show a reduction of 2% less than 2000. Meanwhile, 395 tons had been utilized as investments for a growth of 4% over 2000.


Unstable economic situation results in rising demand

Experts told that an increased amount of gold had been demanded for being used for investment last year and this was because primarily an unstable international economic situation had been developed. Consequent upon this was a cut of interest rate of deposits by banks and increased gold purchases by small-amount investors. Following the "September 11" terrorist attacks in the US, a demand growth to 110 tons of gold in the 4th quarter of 2001 was reported to show an 8% rise over the same period of 2000 in specifying role of gold as the sanctuary of capital at a perilous time.


Black Blade: Possibility it is time for Gold to shine. It is an uncertain world out there.

Black Blade
Chinese Bank Prepares for Opening of Gold Market
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200111/12/eng20011112_84403.shtml
Snippit:

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will actively participate in the operation of the Shanghai Gold Exchange which will start trial operation on November 28, said a spokesman for the ICBC.

The spokesman said that, as a financial member of the exchange, the ICBC is making preparations to meet the opening of the gold market.

He said that the bank has been following the preparations of the gold market since April this year, and has formulated capital clearing plan for gold trading. The headquarters of the bank has set up a gold market working team to manage related issues.

So far the ICBC has worked out a range of service plans, including clearing, storehouse, gold trading, leasing, financing for gold projects, gold purchasing, gold investment projects, gold import and export and individual gold trading.



Black Blade: Gold demand has been rising in China ahead of the official open of the Chinese market on November 28. We could see explosive growth in sales when over 1 billion Chinese have an option for preserving wealth.
Black Blade
Correction - Old News

Correction - That should be when the Mainland Chinese markets become fully deregulated. The full deregulation of the Mainland market has been moving slowing to expand toward other regions in China. The markets are already open for Chinese investors and demand has been growing steadily. Now, Hong Kong will compete with the Shanghai exchange with similar comtracts.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
World gold prices shine in times of trouble
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/19/rtr575278.html
Snippit:

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Gold is back. Prices have grasped two-year highs and investor interest is at its keenest for 20 years, analysts said on Friday. Why? It's a jittery world. Step forward gold -- the "war commodity". Middle East violence, prospects of a U.S. military strike against Iraq and the campaign to flush out Taliban and al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan has triggered gold through the key $300 a troy ounce mark.

Gold has again displayed its credentials as a haven for investors, especially when global equity markets are brittle, the dollar is losing ground and even bonds don't offer full protection from a volatile world.

"There is a belief in the market that gold's time has come again...Suddenly fund managers see gold as undervalued and are now paying attention to it," said Peter Hillyard, senior manager at ANZ Investment Bank.


Black Blade: The times are a changing. Sentiment toward Gold is turning positive and even the Gold shorts are forced to admit that Gold is gaining in popularity as a "flight to quality" and a "hedge against economic uncertainty". Gold had held its shine until about the time of the Bre-X scam and then the Gold-Carry trade blasted full on the scene. Now the pendulum has begun to swing the other direction and Gold shines brighter each day.

Topaz
Another Planetary "alignment"
http://www.planetary.org/html/news/articlearchive/headlines/2002/alignment.htmA glorious evening here in Oz - we've been out trying to get a handle on the Planets, kinda puts Earth in perspective.
Pete
Topaz, Another Planetary "Allignment"
It's in the stars and numbers. The author claims by using his system any market can be predicted into the future. I thought you might be interested in the hidden mysteries of planetary effects on our world. This is part and parcel of Freemasonry secrets.

www.cycle-trader.com/

Four-Dimensional Stock Market
Structures and Cycles

SUPERTRADERS 1997 "Book of the Year"

"READERS CHOICE AWARD - Stock Trading Systems" - Technical Analysis Magazine


Snip: Market Cycles

"This Home-Study Course is the Only Source for this Information

The material in FOUR-DIMENSIONAL STOCK MARKET STRUCTURES AND CYCLES is an entirely new way of analyzing financial markets. YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN THIS MATERIAL BEFORE, because it has never before been released to the public by any author. Even if you are the head of technical analysis at the leading brokerage firm in the country or the world's greatest trader, this material will be new to you. For example, listed below are just some of the topics uniquely solved in this course.

Explains Why the Periodicity of Cycle Bottoms and Tops Varies"


ascension2000.com/Shift-of-the-Ages/shift16.htm

CHAPTER 16: MAURICE COTTERELL AND THE GREAT SUNSPOT CYCLE



www.greatdreams.com/gem1.htm

Snip:

"A Frequency of Light

Carl was shocked when he multiplied the two Gematrian tangents:

3.077683537 x 0.726542528 = 2.236067977

He knew that 2.236067977 is THE SQUARE ROOT OF FIVE!!!

That's the pyramid codex talking!", Carl says.

He asks, "Why does the square root of five answer the sine waves of the Sacred Numbers? What was the reasoning behind it?"

"Because the square root of five is ITSELF a Tangent; the Tangent of 186234.09485."

Which is the SPEED OF LIGHT IN AIR!!!

Carl points out that the speed of light in a vacuum is 186282.5894 miles per second, but when light travels through air, it is slowed down to 186234.09485 miles per second. Enter this speed-of-light-in-air number into your calculator, and then press the tangent key, to see that it is very close to the number arrived at by multiplying the two Gematrian tangents. My computer calculator gives these figures:

Tangent of 36 = 0.7265425280054
Tangent of 108 = -3.077683537175
0.7265425280054 x -3.077683537175 = -2.2360679775
Tangent of 186234.09485 = -2.236067197552
The difference is: -2.2360679775 - -2.236067197552 = 0.0000007799473440429

Carl concludes -

"And there we have it, the reasoning behind the Sacred Numbers of Gematria, the same ones preserved in eastern metrology and western calendrical computing; square roots and tangents - all keyed to the terrestrial speed of light - AND DELIVERED THROUGH THE PYRAMID CODEX IN NEARLY THE EXACT METHODOLOGY THEY USED IN KEYING THE EARTH'S EQUATORIAL CIRCUMFERENCE TO THE CUBE ROOT OF DOUBLE-PI when they built the Great Pyramid at Giza."

"No communications across ancient oceans? No prehistoric writing that makes any sense? Ignorant stone age progenitors? I'm afraid I'm not buying anymore, not when I can so easily find this kind of mathematical evidence to the contrary."

"Someone back there had it all; maps of enviable accuracy, a complete knowledge of every inch of our planet, a thorough understanding of mathematics and, yes, even calculators and computers we take for granted today - because without such tools, they could never have put it all together. Why do I say that? Because the U.S. Geological Survey advises me that they have the only computer in the United States which is programmed to calculate accurate distances between widely separated points anywhere on the planet - which means - that before the ancients could have marked out the pyramid grid system, they required a computer of the same caliber!!"






Pete
OOPS, I apologize for multiple posts
I received error message first two times which led me to believe my message wasn't posted.
da2g
Pete- numerology, pyramids etc.
Years ago I read some works of a former New Zealand airline pilot Bruce Cathie ("The Bridge to Infinity", I think), where he went through similar mathematical gyrations. He attempted to relate various items such as UFO's and space travel, the pyramids of Egypt and the Mayan civilization, the speed of light, Stonehenge etc. Quite entertaining, although he really had to do some mathematical manipulations to make his numbers work, and I don't think that I ever really understood it. I don't know how this relates to gold so I'll leave this be.
Rock
Milan plane crash a mere accident or major coverup?
First of all I want to say Bravo to Black Blade on that great piece of work you put together on "Argentinean Tears" the other day. It really puts things in proper perpective. On a side note, I heard it said and I think it was here to believe only about one third of what the media tells us and to question even that. Yesterdays plane crash in Italy disturbs me in more than one way. First of all this has to the be first plane crash in history that they have had the quickest answer within the hour saying it was an accident.

I thought these investigations take months to determine the certanity of these kinds of crashes. Secondly, in my 47 years of existence this is only the 4th time that I can remember a plane has crashed into a high rise building and all within the same year, ( pretty concidential wouldn't you agree) and the first three crashes were all done intentially, that being the two world trade center crashes on 9-11 and that freaked out teenager who crashed his plane in that office building in Texas a few months ago.

Does anyone becides myself find that quite odd within one hour of yesterdays crash they said it was a definite accident? I dont believe them. I think the pilot was probably killed at the wheel and the hijacker ran the plane right in the building at full speed. It was traveling so fast it actually came out the other side of the building.
Just because it wasn't full of fuel doesn't discount a terriorist attack.

I just find it strange that of all the places to crash the pilot would decide to go straight thru the main and largest government building in Milan. But it was an accident, after all we have to protect our stock market even if it means lying to the sheeple. You can bet the Italian version of the FBI is checking the names of those passengers on board that flight.

And something else I noticed was the media used the word "small" plane as if it was the same type of "small" plane that hit that office building in Texas. I noticed the gap in that building yesterday and it didn't look small to me but maybe thats because I need glasses.

I guess the old pilot figured his air bag would stop the concussion of the impact and it was safer for him to ram into a building rather than to nose dive in to some open field or something. On a side note gold futures were down a few bucks today but that doesn't concern me because I know how gold can break out on a moments notice and take a nice pop as its done before.

Rock
Waverider
Zimbabwe Auction Executes Hyena Futures, Putsi Calls
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APL_wahYiWmltYmFiSnippit:
"There are some real killings to be made on the Zambezi Valley Hunt Exchange. Baboon options are opening at $9 per baboon, traders expect a stampede on bull elephant derivatives and phone orders from New York and London are overwhelming Zimbabwe's wireless circuits.

It's not a market for the faint of heart. Williams says investors here best be familiar with how to leverage a .404- caliber H&H single-shot against a rampaging 3,000-kilogram (6,600- pound) hippopotamus. As hybrid markets go, there's clearly none more volatile than the Zambezi exchange, where a 14-day option to kill a hippo this year sold for $3,700 and traders say U.S. investors pushed warthog futures to $690 from last year's high of $327.

An auctioneer by trade and a big-game hunter by inclination, Ferreira has run the one-day exchange for 27 of his 61 years. The market, he explains, is the descendant of the shadowy Zimbabwe tusker exchange, where foreign businessmen once gathered to haggle over ivory prices with local white hunters and native tribal leaders. In the mid-1960s the government banned the trade and created a regulated market to curtail the commercial slaughter of elephants and other endangered species."

Waverider: Now *this* could be worth cashing in some Gold shares!
YGM
Harry Schultz comment.....
"In due course the Japanese people will own over 70% of
the world's gold! Wrap your mind around the implications
of that!"

Harry Schultz
..............
*Sounds a little far fetched considering 70% is already in "Private" hands but then who am I to argue w/ the likes of Harry! He gets his point across tho especially if one considers the intrinsic value of Gold in the lives oF Muslims, Asians, East Indians and how they hoard week by week a gram here and a gram there all of their lives. That Gold saved buys the first home, pays the daughters wedding, and most importantly buys relocation in times of military turmoil.....The masses of the western world will awaken at the sound of the alarm and they'll have missed the boat! All except a few wise and prudent few....."and those who frequent these great halls"................YGM.
YGM
Robert Mundell paper.....
Mr Gresham, you're welcome ...........I believe, like many others, that Mundell not unlike other great economists (Greenspan for one) knows and believes in the value of Gold as as reserve asset and an ultimate store of wealth. I feel he at the same time gives too much credit to, and faith in, the power of the US dollar. But he also gives himself an escape hatch when he states..Quote..

"But the United States would not talk about international monetary reform now anyway, because a superpower never pushes international monetary reform unless it sees reform as a chance to break up a threat to its own hegemony. The dollar liabilities of the United States have been rising by bushels and bushels. From a national standpoint, the United States is never going to suggest an alternative to its present system because it is already a system where the United States maximizes its seigniorage." end Quote....

He as many, realize that economic policies, military power, hedgemony and seniorage 'can, will, & are' subject to failure and eventual collapse no matter how much control and manipulation is exerted. He as much as admits to the fact that Gold is manipulated to prove there is no inflation and keep the US dollar policy on track.....Well I for one would bet that both Mundell and Greenspan have very substantial Gold based assets of their own, and quite possibly more Euro's than US greenbacks in the mattress....
I think his financial thesis's (sp) always try to work from within the system we now have but allow for unforseen change and possibly even a return to honest money...Gold...In any event it's enlightning to hear his views and thoughts...FWIW...YGM.




Nomad
China and Gold

Living in China, I read with interest some of the info posted here.

Some things ...

1) the currency in China is RMB (yuan/reminbi : 'the people's money') and is not convertible. It will be interesting to see how arbitrage is carried out with the HK market. A lot fo people now keep some or all of their savings in USD.

2) I think there is a lot of interest in Gold as Chinese have a much higher percentage of their income in savings than even the Japanese.

3) all the info I have seen here (and my girlfriend was a manager at ICBC the bank mentioned in the previous article) leads me to believe that it will be a bit difficult at first for individual to participate. I am sure later that will change.

4) there most likely will be some type of tax on the sale and purchase of gold ... but if there is one thing the Chinese are good at, it's avoiding taxes :)

5) Chinese banks are HUGELY insolvent. In every city I have lived in there are 100's (in the case of Shanghai, maybe thousands) of NEW EMPTY office and apartment buildings. At the beginning of the 90's the banks were begging for people to take loans and they did ... then skimmed the proceeds and left the buildings vacant. Great Scam. Responsible for better than 50 percent of the rich people in china in IMO. Everyone knows about it and nothing is done because of the guanxi (relationships) between the scammers and the banks.

6) Chinese are great gamblers. They bet on anything and a lot of them have been pouring their money into the stock market (and losing it) ... sound familiar ??? One of my students came to me the other day wanting my advice because his wife has lost a bunch of money and just now let him know :) We all know the lure of futures, so I think the paper market will explode. Hopefully physical will as well.

Nomad



Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
You say "Goodbye", and I say "Hello"
It's very interesting to watch this short selloff of the "BigThree" SA goldstocks. The POG is down a little and the market is absorbing the panic well in the shares. I was looking at the patterns and suddenly it dawned on me that the consolidation is more compacted and of shorter duration than during the last consolidation when Rooy came across from 2.75. It means the flippers are flopping in less and less float all the time. Swing traders are turning to "buy and hold" guys. Fans soon become players. The little run up in the Nasdaq should have been with alot more gusto as the tech sector was heavily defended at resistance levels. One major analyst called cisco an $8 stock. Well that may be true but if it went to 8 then it wouldn't be worth 4, so the big boys who are loaded to the gills with it decided to halt the shorts at 15 to defend their funds. Well not many longs are jumping on as planned. The big boys are eating stock that could be saved for wallpaper in a few years. Money is accumulating on the sidelines with no where to go!!! I always believed that daytraders were just hyperactive people with a chronically short attention span. Then I realized that the high volatility in a trending market with downward bias is producing the flipper mentality. No one wants to wake up one morning and see their portfolio doing a 9-1-1. So they sell at any decent profit. This mentality is in the goldstocks because people are a little slow to change. The buy and hold strategy is coming back to all things gold but the flippers are being wrenched by upside volatility while they have a "pro-shorting" stance from being ground down in everything else when they were hopeful longs. What I'm saying is the goldshares are becoming like the former IPO madness. Mania with solid numbers to boot. The available floats are getting tighter. As traders flip around they often only catch a portion of the move so each time they buy back in, they end up with less and less numbers of shares. This makes them angry. Frustrated over not conquering their "inner knucklehead". They resort to say," I'd have been better off to buy in anywhere and go out and play golf". Forget market timing, forget selling, forget the retracement loss, I'll ride it out, forget comissions. That's right the flippers are feeling dumber than the dolphins who are having fun in the sun. Normally any rally that gets so far ahead of itself is tempting mutual funds to take profits with large block sales crushing down the prices in a blaze of flames lit by a big red candle. But what I see is absorbtion buying and small retracements. It used to be that all their finances were so messed up, it didn't matter which dog you chose. Now with the hedgebooks being covered, money is running into them and leaving the lame behind. BEWARE of hedged goldmine companies. KRY is set to blow up like ASL did in Oct. 1999 and the pattern shows it. If it was a normal goldstock, it would show a normal pattern. It's a red jellyfish with poison. Notice on their website how they never show even a bar of gold? Because they don't have any interest in a runaway gold market resulting in a hedgebook crisis. KRY has two entire years of production hedged and nearly 1/3 of all their reserves. These guys are sipping too much wine in Caracas for me, maybe a little too much white powder on the brain.
ASL is actually a sleeping giant with Lonmin brainchildren at the helm. What more could they have done in such a short time with a crisis so bad. The runt of the SA litter has massive reserves much more than rooy or goldfeels. When there is more money to be made in an unhedged position, then that is the way they go. Ruby dude-port will have no hedgebook within two months. Every trader will be attending the ceremony, market orders only, do I hear 6 going 10. Mania son, Hey dude you're getting a goldstock! It was difficult for it to break through major long term resistance at 4, very difficult. I assumed it would bounce of it three or four times before taking it out. Once past these "thresholds of belief/unbelief" they are going to catch the momentum players who only enter once a resistance level is surpassed. I'm a price sniper so i don't buy on momentum but many big players do. I'm a shrimp among the whales. At this point I am a forward looking statement. Forward looking to my golf clubs and a trip to clear blue waters after I sell my house. Sorry brokers, the way you always made me broker. I'm going after an inactivity fee, my goal. Locked in and loaded, keep doing what you can for the POG. -GR2

I seem to have "split my bid" on the POG contest. Trying to be so between that I failed to make it in tenths, thus forfeiting my guess to a more worthy member Shanty.

Read till you drop. Then stand up forever..........
YGM
Nomad...
http://www.gatachinese.org/ Very nice to have a poster from the great Asian nation of China giving us some insight as to the view from there. I hope you will enlighten your associates with the link to the new GATA site for China....Hope you tell us more of what you see from your vantage point.....YGM.
jlfletc
"GR2"
I must say, it's an absolute pleasure to read your posts! Very entertaining and informative. "Gold Feels" and "Moaning Geld" shares? You have a slight dementia when it comes to the english language........and I like that!
Shine on, and Bless you!
YGM
What Next Column....Debt Mongering Bankers Target Teens...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_ID=7310015Not content with indebting all the adult world, now these ungodly, unconscionable, perverts of equitable society want to chain our youth to an early life of debt....How sick they are! How sick society is to let the Money Mongers keep this world in chaos and poverty....When will we stand and be heard?....Thank goodness we can still hope and teach by example....Buy gold & silver, and denounce the system is all we pitiful 'useless eaters' (NWO & Bankers coined this term) can hope to achieve! Entirely disgusting!....YGM





YGM
Virus Warning Message from Sharefin....
Some one hit me with this virus so be warned if opening an email from me.

It's a Worm_MYLIFE.B virus and comes under the name of CARI.SCR
As far as I know I didn't receive it via email (I do get many though) but rather the file was in my tempoary internet files folder.
So I presume I picked it up surfing via html.

I have my settings at no load for these files & never triggered it:
http://www.antivirus.com/vinfo/safe_computing/

This virus is dangerous and should be checked for.
As well as running an ani-virus program the file can be found by doing a file search for CARI* in your Windows directory.
If you find it then follow the instructions for using it.

Also watch out for an email containing a file called TAMB.BAT
I received a copy of this bouced back to me from a dead email address.
I also presume that this is a virus .

Sorry for the problems

Nick

http://www.antivirus.com/vinfo/virusencyclo/default5.asp?VName=WORM_MYLIFE.B


sector
Brown Tells Us...THINGS AIN'T SO GREAT!...Skip the pie.
http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/epaper/editions/today/business_c3fb2b353115b13700f2.htmlEconomic recovery skips UPS
Dave Hirschman - Staff
Friday, April 19, 2002

If a robust U.S. economic recovery is truly under way, as many economists theorize, United Parcel Service saw little evidence of it during the first quarter.

Domestic air and ground package deliveries fell in the first three months of 2002, and the world's largest transportation firm expects the lackluster economic conditions to continue through the first half of the year.

"There were no definitive signs of the much-rumored recovery in the first quarter," said Scott Davis, chief financial officer at Sandy Springs-based UPS. "We believe the worst is behind us, but when the economy will start heading north, we can't tell."

UPS said first-quarter net profit fell to $563 million, or 50 cents a share, from $556 million, or 48 cents, a year earlier.
Mr Gresham
(No Subject)
GR2 -- Another masterful spinout. Probing psychology as it shifts from one attention span side of the compass to the other. Ah to meet the mind behind the keyboard.

Sierra: "A devaluation is looming right ahead! " You framed the situation exactly -- in terms of a deval -- there's a history to these things, which are always officially denied and covered up, until they can't be any longer. Market players "play" stickball out in the busy street, until someone gets run over. "Small dogs hide..."

Nomad: Didn't know you're in China -- you addressed much of what I just wrote in the paragraph below. Thanks, and keep giving us your views, please.

Black Blade -- Another evening of great news gathering. Wouldn't it be great to know more of the gov/individual relationship in China with regard to banking and savings? I remember hearing the banking industry is in trouble there. But the gov is accumulating AU and individuals are being encouraged to, seemingly. Isn't this rare among govs, or is China cutting loose an old fiat regime that has milked its victims to the last degree possible, and now Chinese are being Chinese to the hilt -- using their full-press business sense to move forward. The kleptocracy has milked its position fully, and now must move the country forward to create any further gains?

Topaz -- Thanks for the planetary "alignment" link -- we'll be out on the hill seeing what we can see!

Pete -- WOW! My first thought was, if somebody's put all this stuff together in one place, where I can do some math for myself in under an hour and see what matches, I could see if that "pyramid stuff" really interests me any further. Thanks, it's a keeper!

Waverider: Hyena futures, hippo calls. CATCH OF THE DAY! Aside from the gruesome aspects, what if they find out that someone has sold the "paper elephants" several times each via derivatives, or that all the baboons in Zimbabwe have already been "custodially storaged" for debts to South Africa?

I can hear Aristotle now: "Baboons, get you some. Before someone makes a monkey out of you."

YGM -- Maybe it would be better stated that "the Japanese people will BID FOR over 70% of the world's gold! " And when they flock that way, it will be with a ferocity we have yet to imagine. Interesting that A/FOA had no mention of Japanese savers as a body having a driving influence on POG, but only Japan as a lost economic entity, which may be on track as a prediction.

And, yes, you pulled out the Mundell paragraph that seemed most applicable. I wondered if anywhere in Mundell's writing was a clue to the Euro "strategy" to displace the dollar, and benefit from that seigniorage. He comes closest with:

(1997) "I believe that Europe is going to be much more successful than people generally believe. It will take three years after 1999 to put the currency into place. Then it will take another seven or eight years of growing pains while countries get used to the new procedures that are needed. By the year 2010, we will probably have a European currency firmly in place and generally accepted. "

This doesn't sound as urgent as FOA's timeframe, but he probably has credentials that get him in any door on both sides, and now must remain above any conflict that develops.

Mundell:"Let me just conclude with a final thought: Bismarck once said that the most important event in the 19th century was that England and America spoke the same language. In the same spirit, the most important event in the 20th century was the creation of the Federal Reserve System, the vehicle for the spread of the dollar. Without that, you would not have had the subsequent monetary events that took place. Let us hope that the most important event of the 21st century will be that the dollar and the Euro learn to live together. "









Brett Woods
******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

Mr. Consuelo cut the leg from a pair of new trousers and clamped one open end around the faucet of the small washroom at the back of his clothing store. He directed the other open end into a mop bucket that his wife was holding at the edge of the sink. People had gone mad in the street below their bedroom, smashing windows and looting the furniture and appliance store next door. Marlene had called the police and they assured her they knew about it and were doing everything they could. Now someone had set a fire and Jorge in a pitched staccato voice agreed with his wife that they should change places so that he could hold the bucket. Her smaller hand groped over his and water from the tap leaped in all directions before Marlene cold make a good seal. The fire would eventually cause damage to bolts of cloth, three sewing machines with their tables and chairs and most of the inventory before firemen put out. The items for sale were ruined by smoke.

Four days earlier, Mr. Consuelo had delivered the cash contents of his register to be deposited at the bank. He used to be on friendly terms with all the staff, but in recent years there had been a high turnover. All the women he knew, including the manager and the loans officer, were now gone. The number of tellers had been halved and the operating hours had been reduced to a number lower than those of any other business he could think of. He had been issued a plastic card and persuaded to use the depository box. Three days ago, Mrs. Consuelo had tried to use that card. The machine screen only blinked at her. It was out of service. The doors to the branch were locked.

Two days ago Mr. and Mrs. Consuelo had run out of money. Today they would have no business, and as Jorge held his softly sobbing wife with her damp night clothes and his damp shirt clinging together, a sense of dread filled him; a sense of desperate horror and teeth grinding self recrimination.

It doesn't matter if you believe that Gold is an old fashioned and out moded store of wealth that now has nothing more that industrial uses. Perhaps you've been told that. It doesn't matter that in your life time you've seen the price of Gold go up and down radically and so feel unsure about the right time to own it. That is separate from my argument here. The fact is, that owning some Gold is the simplest way to protect yourself and your family both against complete destitution, in the case that you be made a refugee, AND in the case where cash currency becomes inaccessible or devalued.

If you think this can't happen, if you think that the only people who keep gold coins or a 10 oz bar, are elderly men and women with irrational night terrors from WWII, perhaps you might want to reconsider. As USAGOLD forum posters have pointed out, it's not inconceivable that this scenario or a worse one involving military muscle could in this generation, come to a town near you. It could come to your town. Recognizing what brought about the tears in Argentina, and thinking about what resources you personally would have if that situation transpired here, seems only prudent.

Brett Woods

http://www.usagold.com
Hard assets...Easy access
Welcome to USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. May your future now be brighter.
Gandalf the White
Please Await my return ! <;-)
Just a note to advise that I am again in the DEEP WOODS fighting the Orcs, and wiil return to the Castle this afternoon to check out the WINNERS. WOW, did you see that?
A Golden Bear just passed me in a HAPPY mood. <;-)
YGM
Congratulations....
Golden Bear, Hipplebeck and Trurl....It appears you won the Gold....Well done!

Now don't hide it where you can't find it again!....YGM.
R Powell
Congratulions to the winners
Also, my vote for line of the day goes to Mr. Gresham for "Baboons, get you some".
Good reading today, thanks
And
Happy weekend!!!
Get some silver too!
Rich
Rock
Crashed Pilots son, it may be suicide!
I didn't predict the spot price of Gold but I did say that Milan plane crash yesterday wasn't an accident. How did I know that? Because I wasn't born yesterday.

Snippit:
Friday April 19, 4:46 PM
Milan plane crash pilot wanted to commit suicide

The pilot whose plane crashed into Milan's tallest building killing himself and two women was a failed businessman who wanted to end his life, his son said in comments in the daily La Repubblica.

The paper identified the pilot as Luigi Fasulo, who made a fortune in the airplane business then lost it all after becoming a self-styled investor.

He was reported variously as 65 or 67-years-old and said to live in Pregassona, a suburb of Lugano, Switzerland -- not far from where the flight originated.

La Repubblica quoted his son Marco and a friend, identified only as Franco, who both insisted the incident Thursday that immediately raised the spectre of a new September 11-type attack was a suicide.

"What do you mean an accident? It was a suicide, a suicide, I'm telling you. There were people who wanted to ruin him, to destroy him financially, so he committed suicide," Marco Fasulo said, without elaborating.

Have a great weekend,

Rock
Black Blade
Mr. Gresham and Nomad � Chinese Gold Sales


The one thing that stands out is the issue of taxes on Chinese Gold sales. I would expect that the government would place a Value Added Tax (VAT). I don't know how much that would affect sales. However, if only a fraction of a percent of Chinese put savings into Gold, the overall effect would likely be huge. It would not take much to move the Gold market. Cheers!

- Black Blade
CoBra(too)
FBI warns against ...
"physical" attacks against financial institutions and name Al Quaeda - ...
Kind'a funny as the said financial institutions attacked "Physical" for quite some time.

What goe's around - come's around ... cb2
Black Blade
How Banking Fees Corrupt Wall Street
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1019137586.html
Snippit:

Berkeley, California, April 18 (Bloomberg) -- A report this week that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined General Electric Co.'s request for a $1 billion line of credit was the most-read article on Bloomberg. Small wonder. The world's largest corporation, warned by Moody's Investors Service that its credit rating might slip if it didn't line up more backing for its short-term borrowings, had asked the world's toniest investment bank to lend it money and was turned down. Amazingly, this was treated by many not as a warning signal about GE but as a problem for Goldman Sachs.

The general view, implicitly accepted by the 11 banks and Wall Street firms that bowed to GE's credit demands, was that any firm that didn't give GE what it wanted would be excluded when it came time for GE to dole out its huge banking fees. As the former head of corporate bond research at Deutsche Bank AG put it, ``If you say no to GE, you get banished to the underworld.'' This is a perversion of the way capital markets are supposed to work. In essence, GE, along with many other big U.S. companies, has been demanding that Wall Street firms extend lines of credit they otherwise would not, in exchange for future banking fees.


Black Blade: More scandals await in the wings. These incestuous relationships between the analysts and banking side of the business have dire consequences for those who expect clean information untainted by the dirt of two divisions that may have interests that may conflict. Aside from that, GE has a lot of questionable accounting on its own. Recent decisions such as that by the EPA that reveal the company to be one of the largest polluters in the US (and possibly the world) did not help its PR image. Now the company will be required to dredge several miles of the Hudson River for decades of PCB contamination at considerable expense (plus fines).
Mr Gresham
R Powell
Thanks. The material to work with here is "pure gold". I have only three needs I'm trying to meet here; two are somewhat within my control.

1. Have fun.
2. Learn.
3. Make some money.

So far, I'm only waiting on #3 to come in...
18K
Chinese Central Bank Holdings
The Chinese central bank has increased its gold holdings, negotiated several currency agreements with neighboring countries, and refused to devalue the RMB during the Asian financial crisis several years back. Japan is mistrusted in much of Asia for historical reasons, and with its economy weak (yet again), the yen might not be seen as the safe parking place it once was. Could it be that China is positioning itself to become the next reserve currency in Asia?
Beowulf
20-somethings meet the new NEW economy
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0410/p01s02-usec.htmlA little interesting article about the NON-RECESION.

Snip--
"Last spring, recruiters � the kind boasting five-figure signing bonuses and hosting tailgate parties under tents � showed up at Drew Snow's school, practically handing him plum job offers. He and his four housemates graduated from Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business in May with high-salaried investment-banking, high-tech, and consulting jobs."...

"A year and a recession later, their fat paychecksand grand plans have given way to unemployment checks and revised career paths."

Unsnip--


Snip--

"Indeed, as the dotcom arrogance burns off and the dust of the recession settles, young workers and economists themselves are learning some valuable lessons.

In the heyday of high-tech and dotcom, today's 20-somethings were notorious for their "free agent" mentality. They accepted and abandoned jobs as though they didn't owe anybody anything, complained older workers and employers. But as the past year's layoffs have shown, many companies felt at least as little loyalty to their employees."

Unsnip--

-Beowulf





Beowulf
US assigns higher priority to World Bank, IMF issues
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0419/p04s01-usec.htmlSnip--

"For years, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have been low on the United States' list of foreign-affairs priorities. That's changed.

The two multilateral institutions, assembling this weekend at their Washington headquarters for their joint spring meeting, have assumed new importance."

Unsnip--


If you go down the page a little you'll find this tidbit.

Snip --

"In addition, the CGD and the Institute for International Economics, another Washington research group, yesterday called on the IMF to sell some of its gold to finance further debt relief for the poorest countries."

Unsnip--


-Beowulf

CoBra(too)
@ Beowolf - Re: IMF and World Bank (&BIS)
Sir, we've heard it before.

... Though, now we're coping with the axis of evil.

... and it comes to mind that said kind of institutions ... institutionalize this kind of axis ...

Pray, tell me, am I going to be institutionalized ... ?

cb2
TownCrier
A mea culpafrom Holger Jensen
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020415.htmlJensen writes:
--------
"I made a grievous error in not verifying the authenticity of 20-year-old quotes attributed to Ariel Sharon that I used in my Saturday column on the Israeli leader. As it turns out they were made not by Sharon but another unnamed Israeli soldier who died 11 years ago.

"The interview in question was conducted by Amos Oz, one of Israel's leading authors and prominent in the Peace Now movement. He had access to many Israeli generals and politicians of that era but identified some of his interview subjects only by letters of the alphabet, leaving it it up to his readers to decide who they were.

"...When the interview first appeared after the invasion of Lebanon, "Z" was widely assumed to be Sharon ...Oz never revealed who "Z" was, saying he had promised to protect his identity. He held to that promise when I telephoned him Monday, but confirmed that it was not Sharon.

"The Middle East is full of mythology. History is rewritten to promote the viewpoints of Israelis or Palestinians and both sides in the conflict suffer from selective recall when it suits their purpose.

"My job is to cut through mythology, not add to it.

"So there it is. Another myth exploded, leaving much egg on my face. My critics will doubtless be delighted, and my supporters disappointed -- but not nearly as disappointed as I am in myself for not going to the source of those quotes in the first place. After 33 years in this business I should know better.

"My apologies to all."
-------

Click link for full commentary
Beowulf
Yeah, I'm in a posting mood tonight
This is the last time I'll be able to access the net for the next two months as I'm in the process of moving and my computer will be in shipping. Anyway, I've been wanting to post for a while, but where I'm at currently accessing the net I pay per minute so the daily routine for the last two years has been to get access, view mail, copy the forum posts for the day, log off, and then read what was posted all night long.

Anyway, I recently purchased the book "The Creature from Jekyll Island: A second look at the Federal Reserve" due to recommendations from this site, and am in the process of reading through it.

Here's a little tidbit from chapter 3, which talks about the Penn Central railroad bankruptsy that I thought sounded suprisingly familiar to current happenings in the market.

pg 42 -

"..The banks provided large loans for disastrous expansion and diversification projects. They loaned additional millions to the railroad so it could pay dividends to its stockholders. This created the false appearance of prosperity and artificially inflated the market price of its stock long enough to dump it on the unsuspecing public. Thus , the banker-managers were able to engineer a three-way bonanza for themselves. They (1) received dividends on essentially worthless stock, (2) earned interest on the loans which provided the money to pay those dividends, and (3) were able to unload 1.8 million shares of stock- after the dividends, of course - at unrealistically high prices."

Later under the paragraph "THE PUBLIC BE DAMNED" on page 43 it states the following:

"In his letter of transmittal accompanying the staff report, Congressman Patman provided this summary:
It was as though everyone was a part of a close knit club in which Penn Central and its officers could obtain, with very few questions asked, loans for almost everything they desired both for the company and for their own personal interets, where the bankers sitting on the Board asked practically no questions as to what was going on, simply allowing management to destroy the company, to invest in questionable activities, and to engage in some cases in illegal activities. These banks in return obtained most of the company's lucrative banking business. the attitude of everyone seemed to be, while the games was going on, that all these dealings were of benefit to every member of the club, and the railroad and the public be damned."

Definitely familiar ground, don't you think?

-Beowulf

Beowulf
Sorry about the double post
Lost my connection when I hit the submit button, and didn't see if it had gone through.

-B
TownCrier
Jensen gives Arafat, Sharon equal time
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020418.htmlJENSEN: Statesman Arafat can't shed his guerrilla skin

Excerpts:
------
Since I examined Ariel Sharon's background in a Saturday column, readers say I should do the same with Yasser Arafat.

Fair enough.

Arafat, 73, was a terrorist for at least two decades before he assumed the mantle of statesman. He directed the Palestine Liberation Organization which, between 1968 and 1988, waged a worldwide campaign of terrorism in the misguided hope of destroying international support for Israel and creating sympathy for the Palestinian cause.

...Thrown out of Jordan in 1970 and expelled from Lebanon by an Israeli invasion in 1982, Arafat continued to direct terrorist attacks on the Jewish state from Tunisia until 1988. Then, seeing the looming demise of communism and loss of Soviet support, he suddenly switched tack and began advocating peace with Israel.

...As the democratically elected leader of an autonomous Palestinian Authority widely seen as the precursor to statehood, Arafat found it hard to shed his guerrilla skin.

He ran a corrupt and authoritarian regime that jailed political opponents, failed to provide adequate levels of government service and advanced the fortunes of PLO hacks, widely derided as the "Tunis Mafia," at the expense of more able Palestinian technocrats who had flocked to offer their services to the new administration.
--------

(click URL above for full text)
YGM
CB 2....Intitutionalized?
No Way...Pray, tell me, am I going to be institutionalized ... ?

cb2

**If they try that I'll break you out & you can stay @ the Ranch and help me fish & feed horses. Gotta bring your own computer tho!......I'm off to fix fences with my friday nite cocktails. Margueritas in a canteen.....YGM.
CoBra(too)
@ - Beowolf ...
Softly, Sir ... close the door - Oh, dam'n it - Don't SLAM it ! cb2

Waverider
Argentina Closes Banks Indefinitely to Block Deposits
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APMCRdRa1QXJnZW50Snippit:
"Argentina closed banks indefinitely in an effort to block a rising outflow of deposits.

Total deposits dropped 11 percent to 71 billion pesos this year even as the government imposed withdrawal restrictions, said Standard & Poor's analyst Gabriel Caracciolo.

Central Bank Vice President Aldo Pignanelli told the Argentine Banks Association that the closure would last until Congress approved legislation halting withdrawals, according to a copy of an internal association memo obtained by Bloomberg News. A central bank spokeswoman declined to comment beyond confirming that banks had been closed.

Franklin D. Roosevelt took a similar step to close banks in the U.S. to halt a banking panic during the Great Depression. On March 4, 1933, the day after taking the oath of office, he declared an indefinite banking ``holiday'' until Congress passed legislation giving him emergency powers over financial institutions. The bill was passed and the following week the healthiest banks were allowed to reopen while weaker banks were shuttered."

Waverider: More Argentine tears - elephant tears. Why don't we learn from them? Because we hear but we don't listen.
CoBra(too)
@ YGM - Thanks Friend -
A real and noble offer - though, let's try to defend -
to the end our efforts for reality - and not only monetary -also ethical, true and constitutional!

Who am I to preach? ... An EU Citizen wishing to install a constitution for the states of a new union - along the lines of Adams and Jefferson.

EU, dreamers R'US ... g'night - cb2


YGM
From the "CAFE" ...Adam Hamilton
www.lemetropolecafe.comI hope I'm not taking liberties here. Blame it on Margueritaville...Adam always extolls the true essense of market realities.....YGM.

Excerpt:

The only thing that can save US stock prices from plunging far lower is a sudden miraculous explosion of corporate earnings growth of unprecedented proportions. If corporate earnings do not only roar back but soar to the heavens very soon, the current priced-to-perfection stellar equity valuations will crumble as increasingly nervous investors sell their overvalued companies to attempt to avoid the inevitable day of reckoning.



The US corporate earnings realm is currently plagued with a myriad of vexing problems including tremendous productive overcapacity, very high consumer and corporate debt loads, dwindling demand, and widespread accounting fraud and deceit, making a miraculous jump in corporate earnings to bailout the overvalued US stock markets all but impossible.



Great equity bubbles do have consequences, and the brutal post-bubble busts we are suffering through in the States have yet to run their full courses according to the hard lessons of market and economic history. Investors should strive to preserve their scarce capital through these tough times by avoiding the vastly overvalued US equity indices. There is no excuse for destroying capital by taking big chances in brutal bear markets that history tells us are inevitable after widespread systemic speculative excesses like we witnessed in the late 1990s.



Want to survive this vicious bear with your capital intact? Sell aggressively into these bear market rallies, preserve your scarce capital elsewhere through the post-bubble busts, and wait for the enormous bargains to come when general equity market valuations finally unavoidably fall below their historical norms.



The bear market is running on target.

YGM says: Kick the system in the ass! Buy & take delivery of "PHYSICAL GOLD"



TownCrier
Until Puplava's next StormWatch becomes available, be sure to review this one
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20020412.htmlExcerpts....
-------
Storm Watch: The Last Wave

Gearing is a process in which derivatives are used to gain control of a more expensive financial or tangible assets through the use of leverage at a very low cost. It allows for dominance of an asset class at a fraction of the cost of direct ownership.

This process of leverage has been the main vehicle by which central banks have waged war against tangible assets in order to keep their prices suppressed. It has also allowed hedge funds to place sizable bets on everything from currencies and interest rates to commodity prices. A small amount of capital can control a much larger asset class.

It doesn't matter whether that asset class is gold, silver, oil or a currency. The point to understand is that the paper markets control the physical markets and not the other way around. The explosive use of derivatives and the amount of leverage they employ has become the financial equivalent of fractional reserve banking for the investment world.

The whole system works as long as confidence in the system is maintained. Should confidence evaporate, the system would implode if settlement were made in the physical rather than in cash.

The process of gearing has controlled the commodity markets for decades. It has kept prices low; while demand for products has expanded. This runs contrary to general economic laws. As a result, the demand for everything from gold, silver, oil, natural gas and food has expanded; while their prices have declined.

In many commodities such as gold, silver, oil and natural gas we are living off decades of accumulated reserves in order to meet demand. This is a process that can't go on indefinitely.
-----(click link for full article)-----

Crier's Bottom line: If confidence in the paper (derivatives/futures) goes hand in hand with the price suppression, do you have any legitimate reason to believe that the value (price performance) of the paper will somehow increase as gold is ultimately "set free" by the loss of the confidence in these same paper instruments? Think about it seriously.

What say you?

Get your physical gold order in the pipeline. It will be the surest way to ride this "wave".

R.
Gandalf the White
CONGRATULATIONS POG Contest WINNERS !!!
TA TA TA TA TA TA TA TA TAAAAA TAAAAA TAAAA $$$$ 303.1 $$$$ Trurl (04/17/02; 20:36:58MT msg#: 73674
$$$$ 303.0 $$$$ Golden Bear (4/18/02; 05:51:50MT msg#: 73716
$$$$ 302.9 $$$$ Hipplebeck (04/14/02; 12:09:31MT msg#: 73392
===
The above "CUT & PASTE" from the OFFICIAL LISTING tells tha complete story. The COMEX June '02 Contract Settlement on April 19th was $303.0 and the CONTEST WINNER is Sir Golden Bear wining the golden Argentine Argentino, and with the two "runners-up" being Sir Trurl and Sir Hippleback winning the SILVER Maple Leaves.
===
Sir MK, will you please send the Guards into the vaults and obtain the prizes for the winners ?
Thanks
<;-)
Black Blade
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The latest natural gas storage injection data suggests a slight tightening that is beginning to take hold. There is still a stores left over from the heating season as a result of unusually warm winter weather. Analysts worry that unseasonably warm weather in the US Northeast may draw down gas supplies. Weather people are watching a Pacific Ocean phenomenon known as El Ni--o developing off the coast of South America. El Ni--o could bring warmer summer weather as we are now seeing in the Northeast, and colder weather this next winter. If weather patterns change for the worse, the US economy could be in for another energy shock that could begin as soon as this summer. There are already predictions that California is heading for another crisis this summer. California's Energy Commission predicts Silicon Valley is already dangerously close to blackouts over summer. Businesses in the region are starting to conserve and pray for mild summer temperatures. Silicon Valley is the most energy deficient region of the state with only 15% of its power produced locally. The region is a hotbed for environmentalism that has stopped the building of pipelines and power plants in the region. California's "not in our backyard" philosophy is now starting to haunt the state through repeated energy crises.

The state must import a large portion of its needed energy from states such as Arizona and Washington. The problem with California and the rest of the nation is that energy has become a political problem and not a market problem. The crisis over higher gasoline and energy prices could be solved by the markets. However, the political system prevents the markets from solving the problem by blocking the building of new refineries (the last refinery was built in 1983), with the myriad of conflicting environmental laws, the stopping of drilling for oil and natural gas on land or offshore, and the prevention of building nuclear power plants or using clean coal technology. The country is held hostage by environmental extremism. The result is the energy price spikes, power outages, and shortages that we now deal with almost every year.

This week Senate Democrats led by Tom Daschle blocked passage of a key energy bill. The bill would have opened up ANWR to drilling for oil and natural gas that could keep the west coast of the US supplied. The deception used to defeat the bill included a video of a pristine northern wilderness with caribou and other wild life that would be damaged by the President's energy bill. After the bill was defeated, Gail Norton, head of the Interior Department, released a video of the actual ANWR site. The region is under darkness for half of the year. It is also mainly mud and mosquito infested tundra, which is not the pristine wilderness shown in the Democrat video. As for the caribou, they are thriving.

Daschle pledged to defeat the President's energy bill as long as the Democrats held control of the Senate, which they gained as a result of the defection of Vermont's Republican Senator Jeffords. Daschle proposes higher energy taxes to discourage consumption, conservation, and foreign imports instead of expanding energy supplies. Daschle's views and actions went against his own labor constituency, which favored the energy bill because of the 700,000 high paid jobs it would create. This is the kind of extremism that holds the country hostage to higher energy prices. The enemy on energy isn't on the battlefield, but it is of the Democratic-led US Senate, and on the extreme end of the environmental movement. The environmental extremism that has taken grip over the country is leading the nation towards another energy crisis with profound effects on the American economy. When it comes to the energy issue, the President proposes, and Daschle disposes energy into obscurity.


Black Blade: I certainly agree overall. The People's Republik of Kalifornia will likely either come within a hairs breath of an energy crisis or will teeter over the edge into another full-blown crisis like last year. Much of the problem that was not discussed in the article is the problem of antiquated infrastructure and numerous bottlenecks. Interesting to note that Silicon Valley will not permit power plant construction yet much imported electricity is lost over distance on power lines. So much for conservation. The end result of course is the end of "cheap energy" and the consumer, the corporation, and possibly the bankrupt utilities in the state will absorb these higher costs. Fortunately we are in the midst of a deepening recession and that could take some of the pressure off of the growing need for electricity. More interesting tidbits are in the article (see link
Black Blade
Silicon Valley may face blackouts
http://www.msnbc.com/news/740587.asp?0si
Snippit:

April 18 � Hot temperatures and a hotter economy could combine to put Silicon Valley dangerously close to blackouts this summer, predicts a California Energy Commission study of the local power transmission grid. But local business leaders are hoping that conservation efforts and a mild summer will keep the lights on while Northern California utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. puts the finishing touches on plans to increase the amount of energy it can draw from the grid.

SILICON VALLEY power substations and transmission lines have the capacity to handle up to about 2,300 megawatts at one time, just slightly more than the 2,100 megawatts used locally in peak times during the heady days of 2000. And Silicon Valley is expected to exceed that 2,300-megawatt threshold within the next couple of years as the economy improves and business electricity demand increases, says Justin Bradley, energy director for the Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group.

The June 14, 2000, blackouts in Silicon Valley that heralded the beginning of California's energy crisis were caused when transmission lines became overextended and the California Independent System Operator was unable to send more power here. In other words, there was enough power available but no way to get it into Silicon Valley, Mr. Bradley says. "We don't have enough transmission lines into Silicon Valley," says Jeff Smith, a Pacific Gas & Electric Co. spokesman. "[Los Esteros] gives us another vital link to [the state's grid system]."



Black Blade: As I have said before. The People's Republik teeters on the edge.
Black Blade
More pink slips fly at Boeing
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134439105_boeing19.htmlMore pink slips fly at Boeing: 1,006 in region affected; total now exceeds 25,000

Snippit:

Boeing will issue layoff warnings to 2,383 more workers today, bringing its tally of job cuts since October to 25,433.


Black Blade: More "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". Gee, aren't we all full of giggles that the BLS tells us the unemployment picture is improving? Gimme a break!
CoBra(too)
Mind You! - Abby & Lou - ...

Thank you, or better tank you - we'll probably may do , even worse than you can predict the future ... sans Waterloo!
- and even if you're correct, your concept is inept, as the hidden (hedonic) inflation in your yardstick - the US $ - is sick (sic)! ...

- As I understand Abby - Joseph Cohen - and Lou are re-iterating their Buy Signal (not bycicle) on the SM's.
Fine with me! As valuations are far north of the norm - no, untrue out in orbit would be the description, and capital investment is true to happen ... elsewere, let's be at least honest enough to guess ... where the recovery is supposed to be?

... failing to see - any recovery - though a debt Tsunami -
piercing the RE and debt bubble ... the current $-account melee - is and will be at the mercy of the avoiders of systemic risks .. until the system implodes ... on the depravity of realistic gravity ...

... and it will - cb2
Gandalf the White
Don't Forget the "Argentinean Tears" essay Contest !!
Some GREAT entries, but a low total number (compared to the POG Contest) <;-) SOOOO your chances of winning is perhaps better ? Let us hear your views.
Midnight tonight (Friday) is the Deadline. Tick Tock
<;-)
Black Blade
Next battle over drilling: The Rockies
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/134439222_drilling19.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON � With the Senate's dashing of President Bush's hopes of drilling for oil in north Alaska yesterday, the administration is taking steps to expand oil and gas exploration throughout the Rocky Mountains, a region that could prove just as rich � and just as controversial � as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The administration is mulling dozens of proposals to drill on public lands in Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico, and has stepped up permit approvals in some areas, according to environmental groups. Those groups say they're worried about the possible impact on wildlife, watersheds and historic landmarks.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there are 137 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and several billion barrels of oil underlying federal lands in the Rocky Mountain states.

Montana and Wyoming

Proposals for drilling have drawn objections from some ranchers, environmentalists and sportsmen. In the Powder River area of Montana and Wyoming, for example, there are concerns about ambitious plans to extract methane gas from shallow coal beds. Marathon Oil, Williams Companies and Phillips Petroleum are all active in the area.

The industry has proposed drilling up to 26,000 new methane wells in Montana and 39,000 in Wyoming during the next decade. But a major concern is how to dispose of water brought up in the drilling process. In a letter to the White House task force in October, the Isaak Walton League of America warned that contaminated wetlands formed by the waste water could poison waterfowl and wildlife. Administration officials said environmental considerations are being carefully considered. In both the Powder River and Green River Basin areas, BLM is conducting major environmental studies to gauge the impact of wells on wildlife such as elk.


Black Blade: Actually the water exceeds the DEQ drinking water standards. After all, it is essentially charcoal filtered. The problem with saline water is due to those companies that do not use geologists or have geologists who are not capable enough to place the production casing deep enough into the "hard coal" and the contamination from the overlying/underlying strata results in problem waters. Another possibility is in those areas where the coal seams are too thin � yes they produce methane, however, they also have the same problems as outlined above. As far as impacts on elk � there are none. Elk tend to stay in the high country whereas in the Powder River and Green River Basins the deer and antelope really do play. I have seen hundreds of deer and antelope graze and crowd around drill rigs.

In short, there is a lot of opposition to energy development and that will also result in much higher energy costs. Forget about an economic recovery for a few years.
Black Blade
CB2 - Lou and Abby Jo

I turned the channel as soon as the new Lou Rukeyser show started, then I changed it back just to see how it was. I wasted my time. It was some of the driest television I ever saw. Abby Jo gives us a new prediction - DOW 11,300 and S&P 1300 by year end. That's a far cry from last years predictions. She was eating a lot of crow tonight, though she blamed the analysts (of course - but isn't she also an analyst?).

Last night I saw Lou on CNBC with Larry Kudlow. What a shameless lovefest - I almost expected gay porn to break out. Thankfully it didn't go that far. This new show is rather bland. I suspect that they may have to change the format - Do you suppose that maybe James Cramer will be his new sidekick. Hmmm...

- Black Blade
R Powell
B.B./ CB2
I'm glad you both enjoyed the return of the mummy.
Abby also mentioned along with the numbers B.B. just gave us that she (her company?) no longer gives predictions on the Nasdoggie since many of the component companies have no earnings. This never stopped them before. Didn't this beg the question of P/Es on the Dow and S+P? Of course, none of these learned experts thought to ask.
I was struck by the blandness of the whole thing. Maybe Abby's smooth delivery is beginning to give her presentation that of a snake oil salesman. Too slick (sorry Willie).
I remember years ago watching Rukeyser and thinking that he and his guests were the smartest financial minds in the business. Ah, the good old days- young, ignorant and innocent. Maybe it's too bad I wasn't talked into investing in the 90's bubblemania? But no, if I had, I'd still be wondering what happened and probably still buying the techies on dips. I'd be riding the buffalo over a cliff with blinders on. Many, I think, are still wondering and have now been reassured by the Lou and Abby show. Kudlow added just the right amount of doubt so that Abby and Lou could say, No, everything is going to be just fine. Here's your buba and we'll leave the night light on.
B.B. Lou and Larry in the closet?!
Baboons, get you some! And silver too!
Rich
YGM
Black Blade:
I'm in Stitches: Usually I view your comments on the latest news with somber attention, but you got me laughing w/..........

What a shameless lovefest - I almost expected gay porn to break out. Thankfully it didn't go that far........

Good to see you haven't lost a sense of humor.....
Hard to have one with the likes of Blabby Colon and her ilk!
Now back to my 60's rock & roll, Tequila, my woman and the fireplace. (No Bearskin rug tho, he just bolted across the field when we got naked).....Have a good weekend....YGM.
Waverider
Golden Bear, Hipplebeck, Trurl
Congratulations on your WINS!

Thank you again SIR GANDOLF for your work and organization of the contest, and USA GOLD for your generosity. Cheers!
Waverider
'Mona Lisa' of coins may fetch record price
http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&eid=1114557Snippit:
"Sotheby's has began displaying a 1933 Double Eagle $20 gold coin, the only one the United States will permit to be privately owned. The auction house said the Double Eagle could fetch as much as $6 million (4.1 million pounds), a record for a single coin, when it is auctioned July 30.

The $20 gold coin was first minted in 1850. It became known as the "Double Eagle" because the $10 coin that was already being minted was known as the "Single Eagle," Fore said.

The Mint melted down most of the 1933 Double Eagles, reserving two for the Smithsonian Institution. But 10 escaped into the black market. In the 1940s and 1950s, the Mint retrieved and destroyed nine of these. Sotheby's believes the 10th coin, the one it says it is auctioning, found its way to the Royal Legation of Egypt.

For 50 years, the coin vanished. But in 1995 British coin dealer Stephen Fenton bought it, and in Feb. 1996 tried to sell it at New York's Waldorf-Astoria Hotel to U.S. Secret Service agents posing as coin collectors. The coin was seized."

Waverider: Quite a fascinating history, but how does one test the authenticity of such a piece?
goldquest
New Comedy Show Replacing Bud Abbott and Lou Costello
to be known now, as the, Butt Abbey and Lou CosKudlow Show!
USAGOLD
Central Bank Politics
This is for those of you who believe that central bank politics is a slam-dunk, no-questions-asked phenomena that emanates from some mysterious, cabalistic center. As published by centralbanking.com. . . . . . .If we had it my way, the entire ECB would be Greek (well, and at least one Austrian -- hats off, CB2) Now there's a policy. . . . . .A look behind the scenes from our regular central bank reporting service. . . . . .All kidding aside -- I think Trichet is the way to go -- what's best for the EU. After all, a deal's a deal. And CB, if Europe is going to go this way, then a constitution is imperative -- and now. I think the Europeans could learn much from U.S. history is this regard. . .and yes, Adams and Jefferson are reliable references, but don't forget my favorite founder, old Ben Franklin. . . ..


ARISE, PAPADEMOS
Now, at long last, a successor for Christian Noyer, vice president of the
ECB, has been announced. European Union finance ministers decided that
Lucas Papademos, governor of the Bank of Greece, was the most appropriate
candidate to fill the first vacancy on the ECB's executive board since its
creation four years ago. Belgium's candidate, Paul de Grauwe, will be
disappointed but Papademos blushingly admitted to be "pleased and honoured"
to have been chosen. Wim Duisenberg breathed a sigh of relief at the
decision: "I am very happy that we have a timely proposal for the
succession of Noyer." Let's hope the nomination of his own successor runs
as smoothly! (Duisenberg has said he will step down in July 2003).

Papademos's nomination must still be approved by the European Parliament
(on 22 April) before EU leaders confirm his appointment when they meet in
Seville in June. Possibly Papademos's experience at the Boston Federal
Reserve and his standing as a former MIT academic alongside Franco
Modigliani tipped the balance in his favour - some say that this will put
him in a good position to make European monetary policy easier to decipher
for the US. Also, he is credited with being one of the driving forces
behind the Greek economy's transformation allowing it to join the euro.
When interviewed for Central Banking journal back in 1995 he made clear he
was determined to press on with the rationalisation of the Greek economy
and he has done an excellent job. He is seen as an orthodox central
banker, well versed in the ECB's strategy, and unlikely to rock the boat.
In short, his shining academic qualifications together with plenty of
hands-on experience means that Papademos perfectly fits the template for
the modern central banker.

But the proceedings did not pass by without a little excitement. There was
concern that Belgium had not endorsed Papademos's appointment. Belgium's
finance minister, Didier Reynders, abstained from an otherwise unanimous
decision, although the Belgians have since been quick to play this down and
write it off as having no significance. Alain Gerlache, a spokesman at the
prime minister's office, said, "We will not block the appointment. Our
decision to abstain was due to the fact that we had our own candidate. It
was not meant at all to block the decision."

Cynics have alleged that Belgium only nominated Paul De Grauwe for this
appointment to put down a marker for their man to succeed the Finnish ECB
director Sirkka Hamalainen when she comes to the end of her term, at about
the same time as Duisenburg. Even more controversially, some have been
saying that Paul De Grauwe is a pawn in a longer-term game in which Peter
Praet, currently a director in the Belgian National Bank, is the real
candidate the Belgians hope to sit on the ECB executive board (which has
six full time members).

The media leapt on the chance to invent a Belgian plot to secure a place on
the ECB board, reporting that Belgium intended to veto Jean-Claude Trichet
next year from succeeding Duisenberg unless a national from the Benelux
countries (Belgium, Luxembourg or the Netherlands) gets a seat on the ECB
board. Reynders, referring to a deal agreed in 1998 that promised France
that its candidate would become ECB president before the end of
Duisenberg's full term in office, said: "I do not deny that there is an
agreement between Chirac and Duisenberg. I do deny that it is binding on
the Belgian government� There is no demand from Belgium for us to agree on
the name of a candidate or the name of a country, but there is a demand
that we take account of the place of Benelux in new decisions on the bank's
executive committee."

But Luxembourg's prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, has made quite clear
that "there is consensus among EU governments that a Frenchman will replace
Wim Duisenberg at the helm of the ECB� Neither dreaming nor wide awake can
I imagine anyone would block a French candidate for the ECB presidency, or
even try do so."


HIS SUCCESSOR?
Papademos's transferral to the ECB will leave central bankers in Greece
deprived of their star player - so they will be looking for another to
replace him. The Greek press has touted Panagiotis Thomopoulos or Nick
Garganas as possible contenders. They are both currently deputy governors
of the central bank. Nick Paleokrassas, a member of the central bank's
monetary policy council, is a likely candidate to edge into the post of
deputy governor.
Golden Bear
WOW!
This bear awoke from his slumber in the forests of the Land of Oz with the most pleasant Golden surprise!

I would like to thank Sir MK and his loyal staff for their efforts in allowing us all to have this intellectual round table where we can all learn and prosper. I also give thanks to Sir Gandalf for his work in making the contest run as smooth as possible. All those Orcs to battle and still time to manage contests - a valiant display Sir...

And not forgetting Sir BB for his constant vigil for breaking news and keeping us abreast of world shenanigans.

This Argentino will be a constant reminder that preparation and defense against the Saurons of this world can only be golden, whether they be rings, coins, or bars....

A very Golden weekend to all from the Bear.
mikal
Actress seeks meeting with Castro
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=entertainmentnews&StoryID...Please excuse the subject matter but couldn't help connecting this with Rukheisters reemergence along with Abby Cohex. The PTB are resorting to clouds of coffin dust to obscure real news reporting. Socialists come back to life whenever big changes are afoot. Castro gets a makeover and we get conditioned to thinking hemispheric:
Actress Liv Ullmann Seeks Castro in Havana
April 19, 2002 05:46 PM ET
� HAVANA (Reuters) - Norwegian actress and film director Liv Ullmann said on Friday in Havana she wanted to meet with Cuban President Fidel Castro as they were more or less the same age.
"I wanted to come for various reasons, but my main interest is to meet President Fidel Castro. I think I can achieve that through friends. What's more, he is the right age..... Ullmann, star of many films by Swedish director and screenwriter Ingmar Bergman, arrived in Cuba on Thursday to present her most recent film, "Faithless", written by Bergman. Ullmann and Bergman, who were involved in a long relationship, have a daughter.
As part of Cuba's homage to Ullmann, classic Bergman films in which she starred, such as "Whispers" and "Scenes from a Marriage", are playing in Havana theaters.....click link for more.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
quietly sublime in the AM
Remember the horizon tomorrow gold meisters for you may never see sub 300 gold again in your lifetime!

According to my charts, the breakout actually began today. With no sudden motion nearly at all. However, it could do 23 plus today's 302, thats 325 gold by May 1. The big 3 are going parabolic with trapped shorts screaming all the way up, MACD's are rolling up positive, to be or not to be?

"You have to ask yourself one question? Do you feel lucky?"

I have no clue as to why the charts "work". A seven year old could master pattern recognition, but it takes an adult to get doubtful about reality. I don't know why it's going there, but it is. You just came off a lower double bottom along the sloped resistance line, look at the yearly POG chart with a daily candle, before you assign me to a place with padded walls.
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In the land of OZ, all was make-believe except for the yellow brick road.
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Hey dad, why is this line here going way up in the air like that, what's holding it up? Well that's what we call a PARABOLA, son, and it isn't really being held up. It's that way because everything else is going down. Kind of like a see-saw. Normally gold is very heavy, as heavy as lead like a car battery. But once you put all the phony economists and analysts on the other side it makes gold as lite as a feather.

And they said -"charts are for darts" just a rabaling prognosticator, our shorts will go in the money soon enough.................and some were not feeling so lucky.

An entirely new dawn for .999 fyne gould
DOWNUNDER
THE STATE : SOURCE OF OUR PROBLEMS - - - by JOHN KELLER
Guess the heading should be "Your Problems" as I'm here in Oz BUT it sure effects all of us--world wide.I downloaded this on 9th Oct 2001(not sure now from what site)& came across it when tidying up outlook express. A great read and very pertinent to still existing problems. Enjoy.

The State: Source of Our Problems ---JOHN KELLER
What would you do if you were a bank owner that contracted with a security firm to guard your branches? One day, a group of armed robbers simultaneously stormed four of the branches, and successfully robbed three and killed all the customers inside. In the process of robbing the fourth, a group of your customers happened to hear a radio report that three of your branches were robbed, and all inside killed. They banded together, and foiled the robbery, although they died themselves. The security firms� contract specifically states that they are responsible for all security, and since this just a hypothetical case of two firms, the bank naturally made failure to protect the branches a breach of contract. Furthermore, any liability incurred for failure to protect the branches also falls on the security firm.

As a rational CEO, you would fire the security firm, denounce their incompetence in no uncertain terms, and make sure the next security firm actually dealt with the problem, instead of giving it lip service, or taking actions designed to stop, say, jay walking in front of the bank. The security firm would be liable for millions in tort claims from you, the bank owner for monies lost and property destroyed, and perhaps millions of dollars in wrongful death claims from the relatives of those killed in the robberies.

Now that we've taken this little exercise to its conclusion, let's compare it to our present situation with the airports, the airlines, security, and the FAA. In a previous essay, I recommended the abolition of the FAA. Seeing how this is anti-state.com, I'll go a little farther. The entire apparatus of the State is to blame for our lives being endangered. In a pre-taped announcement, Osama bin Laden spells out in no uncertain terms what it will take for terror attacks to on the United States to stop. First, get troops out of the "Holy Land" of Saudi Arabia. This is his homeland, and the spiritual homeland of Islam. We have ~6,000 troops there "guarding" "our oil" that the Saudi's just happen to be baby sitting for us. At least that's the mentality Washington City displays by keeping US Forces there long after any possible threat of invasion from Iraq has passed. Not that there ever was one, and if there was some remote possibility that Iraq invaded Saudi Arabia, so what. They still have to sell us oil. In case you haven't noticed, sand is hard to eat, and wheat just doesn't take to it.

Second in Osama's pronouncements to end terror attacks, is to cease our killing of one million Iraqis, mostly children. Hey folks, he's a fruitcake, but he's right. While we've been watching "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" and contemplating the value of our tech sector stock portfolios, our military has been doing some nasty shit in our name. "But we're protecting the Kurds from Iraq!" Horse Apples. Go check the facts, and you'll see we're not only not doing that, but we're actively looking the other way while our ally Turkey kills Iraqi and Turkish Kurds with military hardware we sold them. This ties in nicely with pronouncement number one. Why not get the hell out of Iraq? Let them rebuild their shattered country with the money from oil they WANT to sell us, but we won't let them. Then we can get the hell out of Saudi Arabia while we're at it. Pronouncements number one and two solved.

Third pronouncement from our Arab Hitler du Jour is the statement that until the Palestinians are not terrorized, Americans will be. This is a thinly veiled reference to our uncritical support for Israel. I have an idea. Let's cut off all government foreign and humanitarian aid to everyone. Israel, Egypt, and all the assorted African plutocrats that we prop up with dollar diplomacy should be cut off. Then we should withdraw from the U.N. and kick those no good socialists off Manhattan. Without our seat on the security council to constantly run interference for Israel by vetoing resolutions condemning their occupation of Palestine, it would be pretty hard to point a finger at the U.S. and say we support terror against them.

The objections are already forming in your mind. First will be the old "we can't give in to terrorism, it will only breed more terror." Folks, we're not dealing with a dog begging for table scraps and some kind of Pavlovian conditioning. These folks have a reason for wanting what they want. Put aside the atrocity of 9-11 for a minute and ask yourself if there's a grain of truth in any of what the terrorists are asking for. Yes, the means are despicable. Then realize that we've killed one million innocents in a country of 23 million. Realize that we would be pretty pissed if foreign troops were stationed outside New York to protect us from Canada. The reason terrorism works is because the terrorists keep at it as long as they think they have the moral high ground. Think of France and Algeria, The United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, the Serbs and The Austro-Hungarian Empire. Each time, the attacks stopped when the occupying force left.

The next objection will be "We can't just let Israel be destroyed." I don't want to see genocide. I also don't want to support a naked land grab half way around the world. If you're so keen on Israeli security, why not send them a personal check when we cut off foreign aid. You'll have more money in your pocket. If you're still gung-ho on Israel, why not go over there and sign up for the army? I think Israel would be forced to end their occupation and really try to make peace if we weren't shoveling them cash at the rate of $8.2 million dollars per day. As it stands, they keep putting settlements on Palestinian land, squatting on the old "principles" of might makes right, and possession is 9/10ths of the law.

In the final analysis, it really is the State that's gotten us into this mess. Our founders said the only reason government exists is to protect the rights of the governed. What we've got is an out of control empire with troops all over the world, and it's finally caused more trouble than it can "protect" us from. From the military and the planners that indirectly caused this by antagonizing the world, to the morons at the FAA who's security couldn't protect us on 9-11, and still can't, to the extra police that uselessly guard the airports, while terrorists plan the next attack on some other piece of infrastructure, to the keystone cops in the FBI, CIA, and NSA that now predict that another attack is certain, but don't know where, the entire apparatus of the State is revealed for the worthless hoax that it is. Let's scrap the whole thing, and aim for the unknown ideal of anarcho-capitalism.

October 8, 2001

John Keller is an Internet networking and security professional about to be unemployed in Atlanta, GA.







YGM
Off Topic....But Not Beyond Interest.....from our friends on the other side!
http://www.disclosureproject.comPresident Eisenhower's farewell address to the nation, January 1961


"In the counsels of Government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the Military Industrial Complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty may prosper together."
Mr Gresham
YGM: Ask the Man Who Knows
http://www.ushmm.org/outreach/denmark.htmThat quote from Ike should be the inscription over every doorway into the Pentagon or wherever it will be read. Means become ends, then ends justify means, and so on down the slippery spiralling slope.

Rome had its honest generals, too, (Hell, even Hitler did), but history played out the way humans will, except for a few Schindlers, Wallenbergs, and Flight 93 heroes. "The Empire That Wasn't" is a story yet to be written. Time to go back to read "Island", by Aldous Huxley...?

"Denmark was the only occupied country that actively resisted the Nazi regime's attempts to deport its Jewish citizens. On September 28, 1943, Georg Ferdinand Duckwitz, a German diplomat, secretly informed the Danish resistance that the Nazis were planning to deport the Danish Jews. The Danes responded quickly, organizing a nationwide effort to smuggle the Jews by sea to neutral Sweden. Warned of the German plans, Jews began to leave Copenhagen, where most of the 8,000 Jews in Denmark lived, and other cities, by train, car, and on foot. With the help of the Danish people, they found hiding places in homes, hospitals, and churches. Within a two-week period fishermen helped ferry 7,220 Danish Jews and 680 non-Jewish family members to safety across the narrow body of water separating Denmark from Sweden.

"The Danish rescue effort was unique because it was nationwide. It was not completely successful, however. Almost 500 Danish Jews were deported to the Theresienstadt ghetto in Czechoslovakia. Yet even of these Jews, all but 51 survived the Holocaust, largely because Danish officials pressured the Germans with their concerns for the well-being of those who had been deported. The Danes proved that widespread support for Jews and resistance to Nazi policies could save lives."

Where are such men today?

Waverider
Currency Exchange Rates
Does anyone know please, where I can find historical currency exchange rates? I'm looking for the CHF rates over the past few weeks and can only find the current rate. TIA,
Waverider
Mr Gresham
Waverider
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.htmlWhy, certainly m'dear, and one just down the street from you...
Waverider
Mr. Gresham
You have no idea of how "right on" you are...I live right at the edge of the woods and natural forest that encircle the university - it is literally, just down the street. Nothing like finding the answer in your own back yard...thank you, Cheers!
Waverider
Black Blade
Argentina Declares Banking Holiday
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020419/argentina_economy_5.html
Argentina Declares Indefinite Banking Holiday to Rescue System

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- The Argentine government ordered an indefinite halt to all foreign exchange and banking transactions Friday, saying it needed time to finalize a plan to bolster the troubled banking system. The Central Bank announced the move as President Eduardo Duhalde works to slow a steady outflow of cash that Argentine officials say could spark a collapse of the country's financial system.

Economy Ministry officials said the banking holiday would remain in effect until Duhalde and his economic team can complete a program to convert most savings accounts into bonds -- a plan they say would brake a growing number of lawsuits against a four-month-old banking freeze. Long lines of Argentines seeking to pull out cash from automated teller machines immediately began forming outside many Buenos Aires banks.


Black Blade: Ah, just like the good old days (the Great Depression). The tears are becoming a flood.
Old Yeller
How the US will play China in the new Cold War
http://www.atimes.com/china/DD19Ad01.html
There always has to be an enemy,doesn't there?

While we await China's ascension to the role,Bush has found another flunky to fill in.

Is this freedom the real reason they hate the US,Georgie?

"The enabling role of this strategy was the hegemonic role of the dollar as the dominant reserve currency for world trade.Out of this emerged an international financial architecture that does real damage to the producer economies.Money,instead of a neutral agent of exchange,has become a weapon of massive economic destruction more lethal than nuclear bombs and with more extortionary power,which is exercised ruthlessly by the IMF all over the developing world on behalf of the Washington consensus."

The real story is getting out,thanks to writers like Mr.Lui.
Black Blade
6 Yemeni women held in gold smuggling racket
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=7190392&sType=1
Snippit:

he airport customs recently busted a multi-crore gold smuggling racket amounting to more than Rs 40 crore. This followed the arrest of six Yemeni women at Chhatrapati Shivaji International Aiport. Though the women were arrested in mid-February, their marathon interrogation enabled customs officers to discover a major smuggling racket only now, involving 25 Yemeni women, who had made 15 to 20 trips each to and fro in the last year. According to a customs officer, each woman carried at least two kilos of gold during every trip � in the form of coins concealed in their uterus.



Black Blade: Some people go through a lot of trouble for such a barbarous relic. Hmmm�
Black Blade
My daughter was killed for dowry, says father
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=7196122&sType=1
Snippit:

IJAPUR: Somashekar Gouda, father of Dr Shashikala Bentur who died under mysterious circumstances, has filed a complaint with the APMC police here alleging that his daughter was murdered by her husband and in-laws. He said he had given Rs 2 lakh as dowry along with 25 tolas of gold and four kg silver to Dr Sanjay Bentur during marriage. But Shashikala was harassed to bring more dowry after the marriage and was told to get money from her father to complete her post-graduation in gynaecology.


Black Blade: And some people go through more trouble than others.
Black Blade
Japan to send gold soaring
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256B9E0050CEFC?OpenDocument
Snippit:

MELBOURNE � Japanese investors facing financial ruin are expected to switch a portion of their $11 trillion in savings to bullion in coming months in a move which could trigger an unprecedented run in gold demand. The World Gold Council is forecasting the possibility of a large-scale systemic collapse of the Japanese banking system and the decimation of the country's currency; only a 0.1 percent conversion of cash to gold would drum up demand for 200 tons of bullion. Since the middle of last year, Japanese demand has rocketed by some 500 percent, from 9 tons in the June quarter to 45 tons in the three months ended March.

Black Blade: It still looks good. I would expect to see Gold sales to increase as the next April Fools Day surprise approaches. If 0.1% of Japanese savings will yield 200 tons of Gold, then just a 0.5% or more could strip out 1000 tons. It could get very interesting.

Black Blade
Baby I'M Back - Rukeyser
http://www.boston.com/dailynews/109/economy/_Baby_I_m_back_financial_journ:.shtml
Less than a month after his unexpected exit as host of public television's ''Wall $treet Week,'' he was back with a brand-new show, ''Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street,'' on financial cable network CNBC. ''Well, as I was saying when I was so rudely interrupted,'' he began, wearing his avuncular smirk, ''welcome back.'' ''How has Wall Street behaved in my brief, unintended three-week absence?'' he continued. ''The financial markets went on a three-week crying jag, ending only this week .... Purely a coincidence, I'm sure.''

Rukeyser put himself on the market and, April 9, announced he would set up shop at CNBC, which is offering the program to PBS stations as well. Despite being a commercial network, CNBC is airing his show with underwriter support and no advertising interruptions the same sort of arrangement public television enjoys. Shrewdly hedging its bets Friday, Oppenheimer Funds partially underwrote each rival show.


Black Blade: What an egomaniac. He also sounds like a bitter old man. The first episode was so dry, I think I'll pass on future airings.
luckypierre
Charts
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts.htmWaverider, look in the link posted here. They have some historical currency charts.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
So you want a Constitution for Europe.
In the late 1600's and early 1700's religious refugees from Europe arrived to America to stay alive and humbily survive. They made peace with the indians and many whites were allowed to sit in on council meetings. Thus a "circle structure" was what early white man discovered as a political governing body already functioning with a dynamic cohesiveness that they had never seen before. This circle structure was already present in Quaker meetings but not on the grand scale as the Iroquoy Six Nation Confederacy. This "We're open to new ideas, but wait your turn to speak" system became the political/culture around Philadelphia in the early 1700's. At that time Philadelphia was bigger than New York City. New York City was a port whereas Philadelphia was the Capital where peace with the indians had been ongoing and that peace allowed land grants and deed titles to be more valuable. No one wants to buy land where they need to provide a small army just so they can raise crops and animals. The colonies had rich nobles who would go to Philadelphia to discuss trade and the overburden of taxation. As time went on they met and formed the Continental Congress. Meetings were often degenerating into yelling sessions with delegates fighting each other in brawls. "Order" was not common and had to be maintained by the "Speaker of the house". After this went on for many years, it wrought disillusionment among the elite of society who declared that they wanted their own King. But they all knew what oppression a king could bring in time so what was established culturaly in Philadelphia became the "well of ideas" to draw upon when writing up a constitution.

This is nearly a quote:

"Why is it that whenever we meet we rarely ever wholey agree on anything and it degenerates into a brawl. Yet when these indians meet (whom we consider to be savages), they discuss things and there is order and democracy."
-Ben Franklin

The founding fathers knew that their pyramid power structure system of a "King concept" was their problem they all carried like a disease from Europe. It would ruin them in time if implimented. Ben Franklin studied the ways and power structure of the Iroquoy Indian's Six Nation Confederation along with others and sought to codify it in a written document. They didn't dream up democracy, they copied it from the indians. The Supreme court represented the council of elders. The Senate represented more powerful established tribes. The Congress represented a balance to give representation to the younger braves and weaker tribes. The Chief held only about 1/3 the power and no one individual had much power at all. The "savages" had it going on. Their system had evolved because it revolved in a circle structure with replaceable parts. Our Constitution was a bizarre concept to early settlers who couldn't comprehend it's system of interwoven checks and balances. They wanted a king and Washington was the man. His picture was stamped on many coins after the war for independence. He declined the offer and refused to promote the crap he fought over. They were enslaved by the gold standard where loans made in goods had to be repaid in gold or silver. Money was scarce. After beating the British, the Continental Congress declared itself to be a sovern nation able to print its own currency. The British were told, "Here is our money, we are paying back our loans with this paper, or you can trade it for comodities grown here". So on the currency they printed pictures of what the notes could be traded for, corn, wheat, tobacco, cotton. The right to print these coupons had to be fought over. As long as the notes were sufficiently backed by goods, they were of no ill intent. Once banksters got involved practing usury, it got ugly again. The first currency among the indians were skins and mother of pearl (oyster shells)for making beads.

My two points were:

The Constitution of the USA did not originate from white man it was copied from the Iroquoy indians.

The currency system began to escape from the clutches of banksters practicing usury.

And I must add to balance this out,

The Continental Dollars were so overprinted that the expression was common, "It ain't worth a continental dollar" to denote something worthless. The notes were a faith project until the new government could put itself on the gold standard before they had any gold.

If Europe wants a constitution like America, the people need to get away from the "divine right of kings" crap. You can only bow down to Dad halfway not all the way. A king is a "father knows best and is never to be questioned, or auf wit iz ed". That concept comes from the lies of Babylon and I won't mention the very rich and powerful institution that seems to be so adept at covering up its sins while declaring itself to be above an old book.

The people never fell in love with the truth, so the circle structure never took hold. To this day I'd bet the eskimoes in the tundra have more democracy than Europe will ever have. The farther East you go, the less you get. Russia was conquered by Gengas Kahn and the Mongols, their mind never left. War to them is a sport. In Psalm 120 "Meshech" is Moscow. What is the guy to girl ratio in Russia? Looks like the woods in PA after buck season.

You could recreate an atmosphere of which democracy could come out of but the democracy is the byproduct of open honest discourse and all must be satisfied with only a sliver of power.

We had the British who love to chat and discuss everything in an idealistic sense. We had the Germans with a love for industriousness and discipline who are full of future planning. And we had the French with a love for life in the present who didn't want to kill off the indians but simply trade with them. French were the translators who lived with the indians, nothing bothered them, alive in both worlds.

If the USA had all British or all Germans or all French it would have never worked. Synergistic chaos is what occured and you need to recreate that in Europe to form a union. With every tribe snubbing their noses at each other, ya got less order than the savages in the woods.

The writings of John Locke and Thomas Aquinas need to be studied in Universities not Neitzie and Lenin and other liars which bankrupt generations have misproduced. Lenin actually developed his theories from the successes of the Hutterites who held all property in common and migrated to Russia being a clan that kept a verse in Acts 4:32 for a motto. They still live somewhere out west keeping common property but they aren't communists. But when government becomes god you ended up with magog.

sorry for the spelling errors, It's really bad when I can't even see the mistakes. CB2 was hopeing for a constitution in Europe so I got enthused and some ideas enfused in a cerebral conflagration that needed an outlet. I'm trying to restore my mind having been in the south so long, I almost forgot what democracy was.

Good Day to all. GR2

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Democracies are rare on our planet and often short-lived.



I was always fascinated by the Swiss. How they managed to remain neutral through so many wars. Altitude has something to do with preservation of independent attitude. The air was so thin the attacking soldiers would fall over. Snipers coming down on skiis in white camo, way out. Not the people you want to try to take over due to a difference of ideology. They have democracy with their Canton system of representation. I don't know much about it but I see they are smart to stay with the gold backed Swiss franc and not cave in to the fiat euro. (correct me if I'm wrong).

Have to go out and lay some block and lay up a flagstone patio. Should yield about two ounces for a days hard labor. Only in America can I earn that much with the craft of the caveman. Zog say Mrs. Zog want shiney stones flat but so water run off side. Sub boss say house sink into ground if just built on dirt. Needum square rocks under house in line.

Sweltering heat is better than being boxed up in a cubicle staring into a monitor, maybe.
mikal
@GR2
http://hawk.hama-med.ac.jp/dbk/iroquois.htmlEnjoy your informative posts, with essential truths from many perspectives. Swiss Franc lost its gold backing, you are correct otherwise. Many have discussed them here with great skill and eloquence. Have included this sample link, containing more links, which validates and expands your generous political and social perceptions: __ snippit
"...As the years passed, the numerous Iroquois families became scattered over New State, and also in what is now Pennsylvania, the Mid-west, and southeastern Canada. Some lived in areas where wolves were in great abundance, and so, these people came to be called the Wolf Clan. Others lived where turtles were plentiful, and they were called the Turtle Clan. For similar reasons, the Bear, Beaver, Deer, Snipe, Hawk, and Eel clans received their names. In time, through intermarriage, some or all of these clans became associated with each of the Iroquois nations, with an individual's clan affiliation being inherited from the mother's side, since all the clans were led by women.
When the original Iroquois Confederacy was formed, the locations of the five original nations formed a west-to-east arrangement. The leaders came to interpret this, symbolically, as a long house with a west door, a central fire, and an east door. This is why they came to call thems the "People of the Long House." The Seneca nation is the "Keeper of the Western Door," the Onondaga nation is the "Keeper of the Fire," and the Mohawk nation is the "Keeper of the Eastern Door." These three nations are also known as the "Three Brothers," in the Iroquois Confederacy. At council meetings, each nation is represented by a varying number of male representatives who are chosen by the female clan leaders, yet, the number of representatives does not affect decisions, since each nation has only one vote, and unanimity is the goal. The Iroquois Confederacy is still active, and the Iroquois Constitution, created at the beginning of the Confederation, is now more than 500 years old. This Iroquois form of government and constitution had a strong influence on the form of government devised by the framers of the younger United States government and constitution..." click link for more
Econoclast
Argentine Tears
Unbelievable yet true! The story is happening right now. The news story posted by the unrelenting Black Blade is a perfect exclamation point to the week here on this forum. It is not some barely recollected, fuzzy history. If the media weren't owned by and trying to uphold the status quo, maybe people everywhere could see what is happening and try to wrap their brains around what it could mean in their life.
Hopefully, some Argentines were searching and thinking for themselves this week while we were discussing them here.
An open mind and the willingness to take action, and they'd be in a much better place right now. It's not too late for people in other places controlled by funny money.

YGM: I feel that some such men are lurking and writing right here. The anonymity of the internet is great, but let's keep in mind, we really have nothing to fear from eachother. The anonymity we seek is to protect our thoughts and words from the prying eyes of those who don't share our beliefs and seek to either prey on us or silence us completely.
YGM
Hi Econonclast...
Scratchin my head...Trying to figure out what post or part of post you're referring to. Methinks I must talk too much ( or oldtimers disease) to not grasp your point. Can you elaborate a wee bit for me....?
mikal
Scrip and the future
http://www.lightlink.com/hours/ithicahours/Scrip issuance is a massive growing practice on in widespread use for fundraising for schools, social groups, and other nonprofits for redemption at businesses such as grocery chains. However, the best use of the term refers to the venerable and classic traditions fast evolving into a better style and form- new clothes, same Art. GR2 and others point out that currency needn't be metal in all cases, nor debt based. Scrip was featured in Coin World several months back, stating growing local use. This link supports that without the censorship of Coin World: http://www.lightlink.com/hours/ithicahours/otherhours.html The sponsors embody and embace fair trade, honest value, the work ethic, and our shared outlook on the fate of the dollar and financial system.
mikal
Correct link:
mikal
Alternative link
http://beta.search.msn.com/partner.asp?q=ithica%20hours&co=15&FORM=WEB...If your browser is having trouble accessing the previous link, as mine now is, the above page provides links (was the result of a search under: ithica hours).
YGM
Argentine Paper to Gold Chart....
http://attach1.groups.yahoo.com/v1/gJDBPMLlyCKwzVsyquwIXk4cjqoDO7NYTIUQTN_jYn3x-iHtdncsuDiBr6SEwimmflMVnmBW3gwZY3QD3pMZlrXxWQJCjMT2gGVtYg/Gold%20Argentine%20Pesos%20Chart.gifGot this from a friend in a private group.....
Take a look into the future and imagine the currency of your choice in place of Argentine tears.....

GET GOLD & GET THE REAL THING! PHYSICAL IN YOUR HAND FROM OUR HOSTS HERE.....I know 'quit yelling'--------- YGM.
YGM
Do I get a prize.......
for the longest link ever posted?Looks as long as the line-up at the Argentine bank machines
mikal
Search engine accepts two spellings, Ithica and Ithaca
http://www.lightlink.com/hours/ithacahoursMy original search was done using the less commonly used Ithica, instead of Ithaca! Also, there is: http://www.ithacahours.org for excellent details and links.
Old Yeller
Cold War;a make work project for the MI complex
http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=old§ion=current&issue=2002-04-20&id=1779
There always has to be an enemy,that's why one must have dishonest money.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
I Dare you to do due diligence.


I'm looking at what's cooking.

I'm seeing a set rolling in that is so big...........don't get caught trapped inside the breakers. Paddle out quick as you can.

Look at the 1 decade time frame on a monthly candle of the XAU. Do you see Feb of 1987. The next month it went ballistic. Like your kid cousin flying out of the half-pipe. XAU going 105-135. I see accelerated buying. I see no high wave shadow selloff.

Hot dog with japanese horseradish and a hot coffee to go.

"Well we want proof......." Do you feel LUCKY?

Will I pawn my car on Monday? Singing the Perot song.
shelllus
mikal and old yeller--make/work war and scrip/usury are very
important issues AND current---suggestyou read 'war cycles, peace cycles' by richard hoskins
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
being more specific
www.cboe.com I'm calm and collected now,

If you click around you can find the bigcharts tools.

from the "All data" chart with a monthly candle

XAU correlation:

1985 to mid 1986- small low level triple mtn top
mimics Oct 98-Oct 2000 same small low level 3m top

91-93 - 3 wave roll up
mimics a condensed version from Oct 2000- Dec 2001

Mid 86 to Dec 87- 1st wave up, 5 months to complete
(note one last month down, red candle)
mimics Dec 2001-April 2002, 5 months to complete

Jan 87 to April 87 - XAU went from 75 to 145
to be or not to be?
maybe we'll skip the red candle at the end of Dec 87?

I need to sell a call option on a Honda Accord for 2 months out.
------------------------------------------------------------
To guess the movements of intraday volatility just watch the flapping banana peel of the jumping chimpanzee.
------------------------------------------------------------The six million dollar man ran in slow motion then we could see where he was going.
koala bear
Question
Hi guys. This is my first post and I would like to thank USAGold and MK for this interesting forum. I am currently reading 'The Gold Trail' by FOA, and I was wondering what does 'LBMA' stand for?
Thanks in advance.
TownCrier
koala bear - LBMA
London Bullion Market Association

Glad to have you join us. Enjoy the reading.

R.
Mr Gresham
GR2: You da man!
Keep those circuits firing! Burn synapses clean!

Q: What do you get when you add the '30s (depression) and the '70s (stagflation)?

A: The '00s.
Boilermaker
GR2 on a roll
Keep the words rolling. I'm enjoying your posts even when I'm baffled. I had the good fortune of spending my summers on the Jersey shore in the 40's and 50's. Body surfing, no boards, no wet suits. Freeze your ass off waiting for the next set. The beaches still had tar from WWII tankers sunk by UBoats. Dirigibles flying along the shore from Lakehurst. Trains ran on coal. We lived near an army shooting range in Sea Girt. I loved the order "Commence Firing". Like 4th of July every day. I caught and sold Killies to fishermen.

How do you interpret the Thursday and Friday action in gold, ie, Thursday's physical up, stocks down and Friday's physical down, stocks up. Is this all from the flippers or something else? Try to make it simple for a geezer like me. Bless you and yours.



Arcticfox
Took this off another site, any comments....
This is a criticism of a post Droke made recently regarding why gold could not possibly go to $250/ounce. Here is another perspective. Go to http://briefcase.yahoo.com/itmmyfav and open up a file (Word document) called "Why gold will go to $250/ounce". The graphs are there with the entire article for viewing. Below is the typed text, but best viewed with all the charts.
Below is information as to why gold is still in a bear market, and a criticism of Drokes latest post "Will gold decline to $250?". I personally think gold could go to $250/ounce, but am aware it could have the potential to go up. This essay examines the downward possibility. Everyone knows of what could cause the upside, but an examination from an Elliott perspective reveals something different.

XAU (Going back from 1980 for which I do not have data, the graph can be labelled as shown below

Supercycle � in ( c) ( shown as (III) below but data back to 1980 would show this as (V)
Cycle- in III
Intermediate � in [2] currently, will be going into [3] soon.

Long term graph shows the above trend. If we dissect the wave from November 2000, the second graph shows the wave pattern is a corrective one, and ending diagonal. This is important and lends support to the fact that wave[2] is corrective by nature, and did not need prior data for the wave construction. The second graph puts this wave in (5) or (C ) of the upward correction.

The Gold Bugs Index (third chart) also shows a similar pattern, although I do not have enough data going back that far. SO regarding the importance of triangles being used for price projections, they must fit within the properly labelled pattern to be applicable. If one has a bad wave count, drawing triangles that are out of phase with the wave patterns are utterly meaningless.

When one looks at the Elliott Wave patterns, news or daily events are not even a factor in projections, strictly the wave formations. Deflation is coming, and Droke stated "gold generally tends to move in the opposite direction during this phase". True, but we are entering a grand supercycle and supercycle correction [V] of (V) which will have conditions not experienced since the last grand supercycle correction of 1720. Gold is still viewed as a commodity by governments (hence the dumping) and should also be subject to the same delflationary pressures.

Droke went on to state the US dollar should start to falter by Juneish. Look at chart 5 to see EWA of the USD. Elliott wave analysis has the USD forming a contracting triangle (this is where labelling is important, triangles could have data from other waves incorporated into the wrong wave structure. In order to support Drokes theory of gold prices rising, a weakeing US dollar is a prerequisite for that to occur. According to the Elliott labelling, once the contracting triangle is complete, a fifth wave upwards will carry the US dollar to new heights. If this would drag down gold, then the price would drop, causing an even larger influx of people trading their currencies for US fiat. This would be the "BUBBLE of ALL BUBBLES". A collapsing US dollar will bring gold soaring to new levels. I am a gold bug by nature, bu the wave patterns must be considered a possibility given opposing views in this sector.

The wave pattern for oil (chart 6) shows a very bullish wave pattern. Certain commodities will move in different wave patterns, and each must be examined differently. Oil still has a strong upward trend, while gold is nearly out of its bear market, but not quite. Owing physical bullion is a good investment for long term, since while other currencies and gold may be decreasing in value relative to the US dollar, a turning point will come where they will increase in relative value. Gold stocks could get pummelled be a decrease in gold prices, which makes a diversified portfolio critical. Prechter et al are calling for a bottom in gold some time in 2003. Hopefully the evidence presented draws question to gold having a potential to go to $250/ounce. It may not occur, as all probabilities can occur, but to say flat outright that is not possible is a biased opinion.

The last chart shows EWA of the S&P 500, and where it is heading over the next while. The graph is pretty much self explanatory, DOWN. Elliotticians are not bending rules or altering counts. The entire analysis below is software driven, which takes an unbiased view of counts. It is ensuring one has the right counts to begin with, or all analysis going forward is of no merit.

ITMmyFAV

TownCrier
CURRENT ECONOMIC HEADLINES -- click URL below for our newswire links to new articles around the clock
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Global Economy, Terrorism, Aid to Dominate IMF, World Bank Meeting

Economy needs more than US engine

Wealthy countries see economy mending over next year, G-7 ministers say

World economy needs more than US engine: O'Neill

Weekend away for Britain's Brown gets eventful

France's Fabius News Conf.: G-7, World Economy (French)

Treasury's O'Neill Says U.S. Leading Global Recovery (Update1)

EU's Rato, ECB's Duisenberg News Conf.: G-7 (Eng/Span)

G7 MEETING Italy's Tremonti says G7 did not discuss yen, other forex issues

G7 finance chiefs welcome economic recovery

Taka strong against US dollar

Economic powers agree on terrorism fight, how to handle international financial crises

Forex reserves approaching $55b

G-7 Ministers Call on Argentina to Make Good on Spending,...

Treasury's O'Neill Says G-7 Agrees on Terror Funds, Debt Plan

ECB's Duisenberg Comments on Interest Rates, Euro (Update1)

G-7 Ministers See Global Economic Recovery, Oil Risk (Update2)

U.K.'s Brown Comments on G-7 View of Crisis Resolution, Oil

IMF MEETING Shiokawa says Japan's economy will begin recovery in H2

Hamish McRae: Mind the gap, Mr Chancellor

G-7 sees global economic recovery under way

IMF MEETING O'Neill says global economy needs more than one engine

World Economy Looking Good

G7 MEETING UK's Brown says risk from oil prices uncertain

DELETED: G7 Communique Says Economic Recovery from Slowdown Underway

G-7 pledge more co-operation to deal with economic crises, terrorist financing

DBCC defers revision of economic targets

G-7 Ministers See Global Economic Recovery, Oil Risk (Update1)

G-7 Leaders OK Debt Crisis Plan

G7 sees improved world economy but cites oil risk

ECB's Duisenberg Comments on Interest Rates, Euro

G-7 Ministers See Global Economic Recovery, Oil Price Risk

G7 MEETING Duisenberg says ECB monetary policy 'appropriate' in medium term

G-7 Ministers See Global Economic Recovery Under Way; Oil May...

British Majority Think Euro Will Eventually Replace Pound, Guardian Says

Dollar May Have Longest Decline Since August: Currency Outlook

Bank of America's Gittler: Dollar-Yen, Euro Trading and Central Bank...

Citigroup's Saywell: Greenspan Testimony and Dollar, Pound and Swiss Franc

Flat tax would ignite economy: Forbes

G7 finance chiefs hopeful but wary on economy
Arcticfox
Comment from other site for previous post....
Something I dont get very well is the fact that any tecnical analysis doesn't take into consideration the fundamentals. Someone posted yesterday I think that gold is the index of fear, I am in agreement with that! And there is plenty of room for more fear!I dont think gold will go at 250, but if does it will be the time to load up. In five of the last seven recessions, the economy
staged a false rebound -- only to roll right over
again and slide back into recession. And it's
happening again today!
Much has been made of the economic bounce that has
occurred recently. No one can deny that -- the data
is there for everyone to plainly see.

But a rebound from deeply depressed conditions is
one thing; a sustained expansion is another matter
altogether. The former is easy to achieve. The
latter must be driven by abundant savings, healthy
balance sheets, strong investment, and VALUE.

You'd be hard-pressed to find any of these qualities
in the current economy. Just take a look at how much
"value" there is in the stock market right now. All
you get for a buck these days is a paltry 24 cents!
Why? Because the S&P 500 is now selling for 62 times
earnings. The average throughout history was 15-to-1.
So that makes the S&P over four times more expensive
than it should be -- giving you no more than 24 cents
of value for every dollar you invest in an S&P stock.

Wall Street wants you to believe that earnings are on
the mend and that your investment would be worth it.
But they're wrong. They've based their assumptions on
a swift, robust recovery.

But this is what's actually happening:

Profit margins were so crimped that last year, the
plunge in corporate profits was the worst in nearly
30 years. With producer prices on the rise, profits
will continue to get squeezed this year.

Excess capacity, despite a blip up in March, is still
near its lowest levels in 20 years. For the past
seven months, the equivalent of 25% of the nation's
factories has sat idle. Factory orders would need to
be pouring in for a strong recovery to occur --
they're not ...

Factory orders surprised economists when they fell in
February, the first indication that the so-called
recovery may not be doing so well after all. The
plunge in capital spending by corporations is not
over! This was the leading, driving force behind the
recession in the first place. And it may lead the
economy into a second recession.

Or, the next driving force of recession may be the
mountains of debt that corporations and consumers
have piled on!

Just one of these would be a huge obstacle to profit
gains. All combined, they create a wall of resistance
that will be almost impossible for Corporate America
to climb.

Here's more ...

* Jobless claims hit a NINETEEN year high! Continuing
unemployment claims have reached 3.84 million -- the
highest since February 1983. That's nearly 4 million
people and their families who aren't thinking about
buying new cars or new homes -- they're only thinking
about their own survival.

http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=041802

* Alan Greenspan identified rising oil prices as a
huge factor in whether or not consumer spending can
help lift the economy out of its slump. Well according
to Merrill Lynch, every dollar increase in crude
oil prices takes $5 BILLION a year out of the economy.
In the last five months, crude has jumped from $16.36
to $25.72 -- sucking $46.8 billion out of corporate
America's bottom line.

http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=041702

* The housing boom may soon turn into a housing bust.
Housing starts fell 7.8% in March -- their biggest
drop in two years. Plus, applications for building
permits tanked 9.9% -- which means fewer Americans
are planning to build in the near future.

http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=041602

* Layoffs continue to mount. Take a look at just a
few examples of pending layoffs:

=> Boeing says it may cut several thousand more
workers.
=> Delphi is eliminating an additional 6,100 jobs
in the US and Europe -- bringing the grand total
of layoffs since last year to 17,540.
=> Hewlett-Packard will lay off 15,000 workers
once its merger with Compaq is approved.
=> General Electric plans to cut 7,000 jobs at
GE Capital.
=> Arthur Andersen will fire 7,000 workers, or 27%
of its staff as a result of its recent troubles.

These are good jobs and many of them are gone for
good. Their loss will certainly sap consumer
spending, and damage the economy's prospects for
recovery.

http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=041502

For all of these stories, visit:

Black Blade
Gathering clouds of the energy storm
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=19042002-062612-9451r

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, April 19 (UPI) -- Publicly at least, the Bush administration remains confident the United States will not face any serious oil price or supply crisis in the event of a war with Iraq over the next year. Certainly, no worry over that ever crosses the minds of the administration's cheering section in the U.S. press. But the real picture is much more doubtful.

In the past 30 years, almost nothing has been done by either Republican or Democratic administrations to prepare the United States for another embargo or price-gouging rise by major global oil producers, especially of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC.

Quest for Oil, Money & Power," recorded six global oil crises in the past half century. Through the first three -- the 1951 nationalization of British oil interests in Iran, the 1956 Suez Crisis and the 1967 Six Day War, the United States had spare pumping capacity and handled the disruption in oil supply effectively. However, the three crises since then have each proven disastrous. They triggered stagflation and recessions in the industrialized world, and devastated fragile Third World economies. And there are overwhelming signs that another would be probably even more harmful.


Black Blade: A very good article. Every postwar Recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. The current Recession is no different. If we have another event to trigger an additional energy crisis (which is very likely), this Recession will deepen much further. It is already a severe Recession that has been covered up with dubious statistically massaged government data. I hear the economists screeching getting louder each day. The refrain is always the same: Energy is not important to the economy anymore. Energy used to be 8% of GDP and now is only 3% GDP. I guess that really means that it takes a lot less disruption to the energy supply to cripple the economy then. Energy is the lifeblood that fuels the economy and without it the patient (the economy) dies � end of story. That lesson was driven home most recently in early 2001. We will likely face the same lesson again as ME tensions build, with the eventual attack on Iraq to come, and the sharp drop off in energy exploration and develop activity.
TownCrier
Hey, Belgian, you may have new company (in the euro zone) sooner than you might think
http://www.tiscali.co.uk/cgi-bin/news/newswire.cgi/news/reuters/2002/04/21/business/blairsaidtobespeedingupeuroplans.html&template=/money/templates/newswire/business_news_story.htmlHEADLINE: Blair said to be speeding up euro plans

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Tony Blair is accelerating moves for the country to join the European single currency and may hold an early referendum on the issue...

Brown has promised to deliver by mid-2003 his assessment on the five tests ... However, the Independent on Sunday said those economic tests could be brought forward to June -- a year ahead of the deadline -- to possibly pave the way for a referendum before the end of the year or early next spring at the latest.

"Our approach on Britain's membership of the European single currency is, and will continue to be, considered and cautious: one of pro-euro realism," Brown said at a speech in New York on Friday.
------

As I see it, at such time as The City shifts its bookkeeping unit to match the contents of its own wallet, the dollar will quickly become a "has been". Agreed?

R.
TownCrier
Do not take this lightly. Remember de Gaulle and Rueff 35 years ago?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020420/group_france_meeting_2.htmlHEADLINE: France urges US to cut current account deficit

WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius said on Saturday that while the United States showed signs of economic recovery, its current account deficit should to be dealt with soon.

"The deficit could, in time, put pressure on the currency and lead to instabilities that would be harmful to everyone..."

Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters that as well as the U.S. deficit, the lack of savings in the United States also should be rapidly addressed.

Fabius said the United States took unfair measures to make up for its imbalances, citing a recent decision by the Bush administration to impose 30 percent tariffs on steel imports.

The European Commission now wants EU states to impose duties of 100 percent on a range of U.S. goods. ``Europe was right to react,'' Fabius said.
-------

Crier's Bottomline: Trichet being the odds on favorite to take the helm of the ECB next year is no small matter to those who know their history. If you don't, and time is too pressing to bone up, here's the short version fallout of it all:

Buy gold.

R.
TownCrier
Tea leaves
Trichet (or someone of like spirit) will preside over the "next generation" of the Central Bank Agreement on Gold.

This is as close as it gets to insider trading, my friends.

Randy
YGM
Reg Howes latest Court Motion Denied......
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary20.html#anchor141322Haven't read this myself yet....Chris Powell says it's a scathing commentary....

Go Reg & Go GATA.
www.gata.org/
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Boilermaker
Watching the symbol GOLD (leader in tandom with HGMCY)I think the April's 14th trading day was a red down day (last Thurs)and was exactly a duplicate of the 13th trading day of March. Problem is the high volume spikes beside the "buy days" on either side of March's 13th whereas April has a higher sell volume on that day compared to the weaker buying on either side. Candlesticks alone cannot predict the internals of the market but we must look at the volumes and the oscillators for whatever comfirmations we can perceive. The tall white of Friday shows a negation of the bearish engulfing accomplished on Thursday.

So its a fight at the top. The shorts are getting whipsawed by new longs on Friday. If new longs don't enter then it will tank down to a lower resistance level. But new longs are entering and those who sold on Thursday feel stupid now. Like the guys I bought from 10 minutes into the open. I differ to the one year weekly candle chart for "a bigger picture" we don't see any high wave shadows so the buying has been steady and fund managers are not taking profits yet. When they do, you'll see high wave shadows, the thin skinny lines that act like springs toward the opposite direction. Long shadows down show longs bottom fishing. Tall shadows up show rally failures and selloffs. No high shadows mean to me that the longs are holding tight. There will be selling though and it may lift off slow until all the sideline waiters get convinced then it can blastoff. The divergence between the falling POG and the rallyback on Friday shows that those two dips down in the POG are a valid double bottom. If the shares fell and the POG fell it means maybe a nother lower low is next. The share's attitude can pick up the POG. One leads the other and I'm not sure exactly which. Let's say it's real good bullish divergence to see the POG slip and the shares picking up the slack. We have a good chance of a rally going up on weak volume and rolling over quick and doing a red streak down. If it does that it shakes out weak longs and the shorts will attack with a vengance only to be burned so bad as happened in Jan of 87. It should recover within 1 or 2 weeks if the breakout fails and the second time back it won't fail. That's a worse-case scenario. At best as the rest of the stock market does a flight to quality the DOW stocks end up in over bought territory (too high) so they selloff. More money on the sidelines headed for bonds #1. Then if the dollar ever drops and bonds get weak, the money is coming back out of bonds and into gold #2. Gold will have made over half its move before the paper pushers ever wake up and see the Springboks jumping.
The breakout is underway but the POG needs to follow or the rally in the shares is going to fail. It is impossible for this runup to sustain itself without more new longs relieving the first string team of buyers who are now selling. MACD's must turn up and go positive for it to do a Jan 87. But where do investors have to go? Name one bull sector aside of defense (snail motion). Yes, the traders have to buy goldshares because it's the only thing they can sleep over as most are lousy shorters. They have no where else to go, too much money on the sidelines. The dogs are barking and they all want to be in gold. People don't know how to buy physical. That comes in later.

I got in a little late trying to resolve an IRQ conflict on a computer I sold. Back when building them was fun and profits were easy. Don't ever sell a computer to a friend. You'll be friends for life for sure.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(No Subject)
BoilermakerI guess I never answered your original question. Sometimes the shares just act like stocks in their own orbit. Like a couple headed for a restaurant. If one leads too much and the other one shakes her head, then He's probably coming back to the car. He being the shares and her being the POG.
YGM
Bullion Desk Market News...Apr.20th
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/News.aspAckerman, Droke, Gebhard, Africa, lots for a saturday....G'nite.
YGM
Geo Bush Sr.....Unauthorized Biography
http://www.tarpley.net/bushb.htm#TableDownload complete book....Could keep you awake all nite!




Introduction -- AMERICAN CALIGULA (47,195 bytes)

1 --- THE HOUSE OF BUSH: BORN IN A BANK (33,914 bytes)

2 --- THE HITLER PROJECT (55,321 bytes)

3 --- RACE HYGIENE: THREE BUSH FAMILY ALLIANCES (51,987 bytes)

4 --- THE CENTER OF POWER IS IN WASHINGTON (51,699 bytes)

5 --- POPPY AND MOMMY (47,684 bytes)

6 --- BUSH IN WORLD WAR II (36,992 bytes)

7 --- SKULL AND BONES: THE RACIST NIGHTMARE AT YALE (56,508 bytes)

8 --- THE PERMIAN BASIN GANG (64,269 bytes)

8-b --- THE BAY OF PIGS AND THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION(46,903 bytes)

9 --- BUSH CHALLENGES YARBOROUGH FOR THE SENATE (110,435 bytes)

10 -- RUBBERS GOES TO CONGRESS(129,439 bytes)

11 -- UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR, KISSINGER CLONE (99,842 bytes)

12 -- CHAIRMAN GEORGE IN WATERGATE (104,415 bytes)

13 -- BUSH ATTEMPTS THE VICE PRESIDENCY, 1974 (27,973 bytes)

14 -- BUSH IN BEIJING (53,896 bytes)

15 -- CIA DIRECTOR (174,012 bytes)

16-- CAMPAIGN 1980 (139,823 bytes)

17 -- THE ATTEMPTED COUP D'ETAT OF MARCH 30, 1981 (87,300 bytes)

18 -- IRAN-CONTRA (140,338 bytes)

19 -- THE LEVERAGED BUYOUT MOB(67,559 bytes)

20 -- THE PHONY WAR ON DRUGS(26,295 bytes)

21 -- OMAHA (25,969 bytes)

22 -- BUSH TAKES THE PRESIDENCY(112,000)

23 -- THE END OF HISTORY (168,757 bytes)

24 -- THE NEW WORLD ORDER (255,215 bytes)

25 -- THYROID STORM (138,727 bytes)





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You can get the entire book at once, by dowloading the following compressed file:
bushbook.zip
(The zip file about one Megabyte. It contains all the chapters in HTML format.)
YGM
More from Palast
Venezuela & ChavezDon't believe everything you read in the papers about Venezuela
Guardian UK
Wednesday, April 17, 2002
E-Mail Article
Printer Friendly Version


by Greg Palast

Contrary to the reports of a spoonfed western press, Hugo Chavez was not unpopular and did not resign, says Greg Palast

Here's what we read this week: On Friday, Hugo Chavez, the unpopular, dictatorial potentate of Venezuela, resigned. When confronted over his ordering the shooting of antigovernment protestors, he turned over the presidency to progressive, democratic forces, namely, the military and the chief of Venezuela's business council.

Two things about the story caught my eye: First, every one of these factoids is dead wrong. And second, newspapers throughout the ruling hemisphere, from the New York Times to the Independent to (wince) the Guardian, used almost identical words - "dictatorial", "unpopular", "resignation" - in their reports.

Let's begin with the faux "resignation" that allowed the Bush and Blair governments to fall over their own feet rushing towards recognition of the coup leaders. I had seen no statement of this alleged resignation, nor heard it, nor received any reliable witness report of it. I was fascinated. In January, I had broadcast on US radio that Chavez would face a coup by the end of April. But resign? That was not the Chavez style.

I demanded answers from the Venezuelan embassy in London, and from there, at 2am on Saturday morning, I reached Miguel Madriz Bustamante, a cabinet member who had spoken with Chavez by phone after the president's kidnapping by armed rebels. Chavez, he said, went along with his "arrest" to avoid bloodshed, but added: "I am still president."

The resignation myth was the capstone of a year-long disinformation campaign against the populist former paratrooper who took office with 60% of the vote. The Bush White House is quoted as stating that Chavez's being elected by "a majority of voters" did not confer "legitimacy" on the Venezuelan government. The assertion was not unexpected from a US administration selected over the opposition of the majority of American voters.

What neither Bush nor the papers told you is that Chavez's real crime was to pass two laws through Venezuela's national assembly. The first ordered big plantation owners to turn over untilled land to the landless. The second nearly doubled, from roughly 16% to 30%, royalties paid for extracting Venezuela's oil. Venezuela was once the largest exporter of oil to the USA, bigger than Saudi Arabia. This explains Chavez's unpopularity - at least within that key constituency, the American petroleum industry.

There remains the charge that, in the words of the New York Times, "Chavez ordered soldiers to fire on a crowd [of protesters]." This bloody smear, sans evidence, stained every Western paper, including Britain's newest lefty, the Mirror. Yet I could easily reach eyewitnesses without ties to any faction who said the shooting began from a roadway overpass controlled by the anti-Chavez Metropolitan Police, and the first to fall were pro-Chavez demonstrators.

I have obtained a cable from the CIA to its station chief in the Capitol: "Re: Coup. Activities to include propaganda, black operations, disinformation, or anything else your imagination can conjure... "

Admittedly, this is old stuff: written just before the coup against Salvador Allende. Times have changed. Thirty years ago, when US corporations demanded the removal of a bothersome president, the CIA thought it most important to aim propaganda at the Latin locals. Now, it seems, in the drumbeat of disinformation buzzwords about Chavez - "dictatorial", "unpopular", "resigned" - the propagandists have learned to aim at that more gullible pack of pigeons, the American and European press.

###

� Greg Palast is the author of The Best Democracy Money Can Buy, out this month from Pluto Press.

At http://www.GregPalast.com you can read and subscribe to Greg Palast's Observer column, Inside Corporate America, and view his BBC television Newsnight broadcasts.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,685907,00.html
The Invisible Hand
From the bottom of the deck
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary20.html#anchor141322Reg Howe writes:

Even worse, by refusing to clarify whether the "power to deal" in gold includes the power secretly to manipulate the free market price of gold, Judge Lindsay has in effect decreed that the power to deal -- at least when given to U.S. government officials -- includes the power to deal from the bottom of the deck. When this sort of conduct is tolerated at the highest levels of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, no one should be surprised at an Enron or an Arthur Anderson.

==

As an anarcho-capitalist lawyer, one sometimes get accused of using arguments which are inadmissible from a government point of view and thereby become, through some legal pseudo-motivation of the court, inadmissible or at least unfounded in jure. What Reg is writing here, and as a non-native English speaker, I needed my dictionary to understand that "deck� is a pack of playing cards, is that the government(-al court system) does not allow certain arguments to be heard in court. The established disorder has to be conserved, you know. Sic transit gloria mundi.

This led yours truly to leave the bar. I think (but who am I to post this?) that Reg and GATA should refresh their efforts towards changing minds, thereby shaking the pillars of the established order. Teach, teach and teach. Ideas result in actions and actions result in changes. But, wait a minute, what is Argentina teaching is us this week-end? No, no abstract teaching, but sending shockwaves through the markets on Monday.
Simply Me
Congratulations to GoldenBear, Trurl, and Hipplebeck!
Congratulations to Friday's Comex Gold Price Contest winners, GoldenBear, Trurl, and Hipplebeck!

I'm just happy that I was pretty close. Shows me how much I've learned hangin' out at this forum for a couple of years.

Thanks MK, for this forum and the chance to participate in these fun contests!
Simply
Golden Bear
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (msg#: 73950)
Greetings GR2,

your quote:

"The breakout is underway but the POG needs to follow or the rally in the shares is going to fail."

The daily GCM2 graph is showing an extremely bullish ascending triangle with the upward sloping supporting trendline being very steep. If this pattern plays out as expected, watch for POG to spike up big in the next 5-10 trading days... watching in anticipation this week.

Cheers.
Simply Me
@Waverider RE: usagold.com msg#: 73903)
Waverider (04/19/02; 21:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 73903)
RE: Sotheby's to auction 1933 Double Eagle $20 gold coin.
Your question: ....how does one test the authenticity of such a piece?

Most high caliber coins are vouched for by paperwork (sales receipts, etc.) and the collector's, or dealer's, reputation.
This particular coin is pedigreed by history. It was given to a member of Arab royalty (the name escapes me) by a President of the US (fairly certain it was FDR). I don't think anyone else owned it until it was sold two or three years ago to a very famous US coin dealer (whom I won't mention because of possible forum conflict). The Treasury department confiscated it almost as soon as it came into the US on the grounds that 1933 Double Eagles were never authorized to leave the Mint (all others were melted) and the coin dealer had to fight the US gov't in court to get the coin back.

Enjoy reading your posts, Waverider!
Simply
Simply Me
Do you see a trend here?
ONE...
Black Blade (04/20/02; 03:50:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 73919)
HEADLINE: Japan to send gold soaring
Japanese investors facing financial ruin are expected to switch a portion of their $11 trillion in savings to bullion in coming months, ahead of the reduction of government gaurantees on their savings in April of....NEXT YEAR.

TWO...
TownCrier (04/20/02; 21:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 73946)
HEADLINE: Blair said to be speeding up euro plans.
Possible referendum before the end of the year or early....NEXT YEAR....at the latest, sure to end in UK joining the Euro community....otherwise they wouldn't be taking the vote early, now would they.

THREE...
TownCrier (04/20/02; 21:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 73946)
HEADLINE: France urges US to cut current account deficit
Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet favorite to head ECB.....NEXT YEAR.

Me: Looks like the cat is out of the bag and chasing the rats who haven't jumped the good ship Gold-Shorts yet. Better put in an extra store of food; if you need a pair of shoes, buy two pair; and grab physical gold with both hands while there's still time.

"We shall have the hyperinflation."
(And gold is going to be the only antidote for the heartburn this dish is gonna cause!)
Simply
Pippin
Argentina suspends all banking activity
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3D1WCP80D&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CCQuote
The Argentine central bank on Friday declared a complete and indefinite suspension of all banking activity in the country, in a sign of its desperation at money leaking out of the shattered financial system.

The bank said the suspension of all deposit and foreign exchange operations would begin immediately following the close of business on Friday.

Although temporary halts have been called before, this is the first complete freeze since the country plunged into crisis around the turn of the year, following a default on its external debt and the suspension of International Monetary Fund crisis lending. A spokesman for the IMF had no immediate comment on the action.

On Saturday, finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven leading industrialised countries meeting in Washington as of "serious concern
UnQuote


This raises another question: what can a gold owner do if all his gold is in his bank's vault, and what if the bank remains closed?
This reminds me of a sentence I read on another site dedicated to Elliott Waves: "possession is 90% of the law". It looks that actual physical possession goes beyond storing PM in a vault. But all this raises another set of organizational problems.

Pippin
Golden Bear - your 73957
Golden Bear,
Concerning your point "extremely bullish ascending triangle".

I have a subscription to a newsletter related to Elliott Waves (ElliottWaves.com - Prechter's site), and it looks that the issuer is still bearish on PM in the sense that the present moves seems to be more considered as a bear rally than as a real impulse wave.
They don't exclude POG to go to $310.- near term, but they still think that the bear market rally is over - or nearly so.

Have you heard this opinion already ?
Could you also be so kind as to letting me know where I
can find this chart ?
Many thanks.

Topaz
Where does Au trade on Weekends
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOCan anyone enlighten me as to why the ino.com graph is showing trading activity over the w-end?......currently $303.6
Belgian
Towncrier....on Euroland.
Goodmorning to you Herr Strauss.
Yes, Euroland's target(s) have been set at an expansion of 300 to 500 million Eurolanders. At present we are more worried about Poland (2004) than about the UK.
And indeed Sir, Euroland in its sometimes un-natural conglomerations, is *definitely* a (subtle) block-building against (or next to) the US$ ! To unite or melt together 300/500 million different people (cultures) NEEDS a common cause. No, Euroland can not start or evolve at the beginning as a dollar-terminator...but sooner or later the euro / dollar, intrinsic differences will become more pronounced ! That's why the common currency (euro) was (is) the priority before the political/economical aspects of the matter!
Example : Euroland suggested (volunteered-naively) for peacekeeping in Afghanistan. And...wanted to have the euro installed/distributed there. No way of course. But such a simple side-thing indicates the drive behind the euro's ambitions.

And when we witness the polarization between euro/dollar-blocks...we must never forget that it is all about "currencies", making or breaking "economical" supremacy / prosperity and of course more peace or more war.

And as TG desperately wanted to make us (me) understand is that the pivotal force into this Big struggle is...GOLD !!!

During my evolution to a Gold Advocate, I realized that so few little authorities (politico-economico) were/are aware of Gold's role (the concept) into all this. But believe it or not...some of them (total ignorants) just ask some more insights on the concept, though in a shy way. It seems to start filtering through.

Subconsciously, most out there, know there is something very, very wrong with the whole global economic situation.
There are nothing but reasons to increase falsification / intervention and selfdelusion ! And it always takes a drama to conclude how stupid we actually are, all of us !
Without knowing full details, a Belgian high profile analyst made it into the ECB hierarchy : Peter van Praet.
He is the archetype of a "created" , abused for more and more loudspeaking/ventilating, official policies and TRANQUILISING (sedative) Talk. Most of us know his track record and when he still was a young and more or less indepant wolve, dragged many saving sheeple, right into the 1987 crash ! P. van Praet is the one who has to ridicule the impact of oilprices, officially on tele...etc !

My point is that what most of us have left on good gut/stomach feeling must be removed by semi-authorities on the economic field. And in the mean time the strategies are set and executed in the small ivory towers. In other words...que sera, sera...what will be, will be (Doris Day).
Whatever the intermittend statements of all sorts.

The aging dollar-block will face the growing euro-block !
And the two main jokers in this : GOLD and OIL, must be low profiled, permanently. Once understood, our investigating tasks become less heavy and timeconsuming. Do I have to remember us all about the outstanding geniality of TG's insights ? Available FOR FREE here at CPM ! Thank you AGAIN gentlemen, yes real Gentlemen !
Belgian
VOG breaking 308$/310$/325$ or back to 250$ down under 200$ ????
Elliot Wave / Fibonacci / Technical Interpretations...all say the same thing : WE ARE AT THE CROSSROADS !! Make it or break it.
Nor Fundamentals or Technicals have full *Prediction* power ! Life and death are nothing more than *probabilities*. Fundamentals on VOG can be extremely positive, while Technicals show and prove the contrary !
And to make things worse...never exclude a *False* break out/down.

Fundamentals for Physical owners/holders are brilliant. A VOG fall from 300$ to 250$ = minus 15%.
In such case the Technicals for the minebugs are dramatic.
A decline to possibly ATL or 4 times the Physical's 15% !
At 250$ ALL MINEPROFITS are gone !!! But VOG stays !!!

Accumulating Physical Gold within a 20% BOTTOM range (250$/300$) is a God's gift. Nailbiting profits/losses on mines can and did melt as ice under laser heat.

Elliot Wave counts have ALTERNATIF counts and many exceptions. Nothing is absolute, except death (live after death-?).
Imvvvho, the dollar has made and finished his up-retracement (B) within the further (fundamental-Technical) decline (C)(Big picture). A giant ABC-pattern from the ATH in 1985 ! VOG (Value of Gold) in 1985 = 280$ !!!!! at the ATH for the dollar. VOG from '85 to '87 (crash year) = 270$ >>> 510$ !!! This time ALL hats will swirl into the tornado. Am in an optimistic mood because of the bright sunshine outside and excellent conditions for gardening.
Good WE all.
Belgian
UK in EMU .
It are the German financial centers that are particulary interested in the financial hart of the city of London !
And it is not the Britannic citizen who will make the choice for or against EMU ! Read pseudo-democraty !
The faster the financial masters can glue together the better. The choice has definitely already been made in the ivory towers. How much trade will shift from dollar-currency to euro currency at how fast a pace ?
Tony has been playing the role of a double agent (mole).
Speaking in the US on behalf of Euroland whilst ensuring Bushocio that the old empire still has the same Anglo American ambitions and commitments. What a shizofrenic spectacle. The main obstacle for UK-EMU entering was (is-?)
how much financial power does the city has to share with rival Germany ? And what concessions has Euroland to make to the US for letting the dollar been taken over by the euro ? US : Yes, Euroland, we know you can kill us with your Gold and dollar-reserves...but give us some more time and we will work things out together as long as our interests are mutual...or something like that.

In other words, The financial powerhouses are taking the lead in the different force-relations and social/fiscal/etc aspects have to folllow as good or as bad as they can.
Canuck
Musings on a Sunday morning
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/taylor042202.htmlJay Taylor's latest above.

snip:

Absolutely not, according to Congressman Ron Paul, M.D. As we reported in this letter previously, in February of 2001, Dr. Paul asked Alan Greenspan to autograph a copy of his 1966 article, after Congressman Paul and other House Banking Committee members finished questioning the Chairman. While he was autographing the article for Congressman Paul, Dr. Paul asked Mr. Greenspan if he would change anything since he wrote it back in 1966. According to Dr. Paul, Mr. Greenspan then said, "No, I recently read this article and I would not change a word."

end

What is Greenspan doing? What DOES he believe?

snip:

But alas, as Frank Veneroso noted, a huge amount of net new gold has been leaving central bank treasuries year after year such that one of these days, Wall Street's game of musical chairs will sometime stop. That will happen when there is no more gold left or when a stampede into gold in the general market makes it impossible for the banks to sell gold, because of the loss of confidence that would result

end

Did we not see from the WGC 'offical held gold' (thanks BB) than CB's are not dishoarding gold? What gold is leaving CB's as Mr. Veneroso states?

Golden Bear
Pippin (msg#: 73961)
Greetings Pippin,

yes I have seen that prediction and isn't it interesting? Belgian beat me to a very important point regarding Elliot wave theory - there is always alternative counts, almost like fine print that most readers fail to regard seriously, and are then disappointed when the main count fails.

A longer term chart shows gold futures making a rounded bottom (saucer pattern) which is traditionally very bullish as it shows long term accumulation.

With all technical analysis, there is as Belgian also stated probabilities of both success/failure in all patterns, but some are more reliable than others, but nothing is fullproof.


GCM2 is just looking mighty good at the moment and we'll just have to wait and see how it pans out. Traders would have close stop loss points to minimize loss of capital in the event of failure of a pattern, long term holders of the physical don't really care, due to the opportunity to buy more at just over production cost. How fortunate we are currently.

You can get a good chart of gold futures at www.prophetfinance.com and select either snapcharts or javacharts from the menu.

One final thought: In 1994 when I just began my apprenticeship in technical analysis, I was subscribed to Prechter's newsletter - at that stage he was saying that Dow was over valued at 3000 and would not go higher and would crash like 1929. I followed that advice and bought S&P puts and watched them evaporate all the way up the bull market - I bet you don't hear that in his newsletters...

I am not blaming Prechter for my loss, for the decision to go short was my own; my point is that his view, like everyone else's is just an opinion (no matter how much he makes it sound like gospel) and to do your own due diligence.

Cheers.
Pippin
Golden Bear - Belgian
Many thanks for your replies.
I must confess that reading a bearish forecast based on Elliot Waves was a bit surprising given the present circumstances. And the chart was pretty convincing.
I am presently learning Elliott Waves using Glenn Neely's book. Good material, but not a walk in the park for a newbie.
YGM
United Arab Emirate Gold Imports & Italy.
Bullion Desk News Link. & Comments.....Jewellery, gold account for 25pc of Italy's trade with UAE



21 April 2002



JEWELLERY and gold items account for almost one quarter of Italy's trade with the UAE, making the country the second most important market for this sector, according to Dr Masimo Sessa, Italian Trade Commissioner, Dubai.



The value of UAE imports from Italy topped $355 million in 2000 compared to $195 million in 1995, according to Italian Trade Commission figures.



Meanwhile, at the eighth annual International Jewellery Dubai (IJD) expo to be held at the Airport Expo from April 23-27, Italian jewellery designer Benedetti-Milano is to showcase its creation, said a Press release. Benedetti-Milano has won awards both in the necklace and bracelet section of Italy's national competition and a place in the international final to be staged during fashion week in New York in September, the release said. Viken Hadidian of Benedetti-Milano, who designed both winning pieces, said no one had ever won two sections in that competition before.

By a staff reporter

� Khaleej Times 2002

Article originally published by Khaleej Times 21-Apr-02


******** I recently read from an article I found how Italy is the hub of worlds Gold smuggling racket...IF/WHEN I can find it in my maze of savings I'll post it........I strongly feel that the UAE is given little thought when we focus on the effect of nations such as Japan & China over the future of Gold. They (Arabs) use Gold and Silver for money, they hoard it more than paper, (read:play money) they undoubtably recieve it as partial payment for oil (FOA) and they have the wealth to corner the market in PM's all by themselves....One must wonder what effect the UAE alone could bring to Gold prices if they began a major buying spree. The UAE also could create havoc in USA property values by dumping Real Estate, havoc in general by dumping US currency and Bonds/T-Bills/Stocks/Funds, etc etc etc....The Arabic nations are the wild card in any "FUTURE FINANCIAL ARMEGEDDON"........YGM.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Fed-America's gold?
http://www.fgmr.com/whatgold.htmThere is also supposed to be a large hoard in the underground salt mine complex in Utah. I'd like to know if this is true.
YGM
Gold Anti-Trust Action Websites......
English, Chinese.........Now we need an "ARABIC GATA site"If I wasn't afraid of that part of the world being the scene of a real biblical armageddon and glowing green I'd own a savings acc't in a system that has no ursury and still has Gold in the Banking system.....YGM.
YGM
Wallace Institute......(Devvy Kidd)
http://www.devvy.com/wallaceindex.htmlYou can rattle around in this maze of pages forever...Truly an amazing site....3 yrs later and I still get lost here.
YGM
Quicker Devvy Link to Financial Stuff
http://www.devvy.com/money0.html#artindex
Benjamin Franklin and Colonial Scrip
Dr. Viera - Return to Constitutional Money
The President and the Economy (Part 1)
The President and the Economy (Part 2)
The President and the Economy (Part 3 coming soon)
Any Way Out Of The Global Crisis?
CURRENCY KILLERS - by Steffan M. Bertsch
50 Years of the Federal Reserve System
Money - What Is It? (NewsMax)

MONEY GURU ALAN GREENSPAN BEFORE HE CAME A PLAYER FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER BANKING CABAL. READ GREENSPAN'S OWN WORDS ABOUT HOW THE PRIVATELY OWNED "FED" CREATED THE GREAT DEPRESSION!
The Shiny Stuff
FDR: Part 1 of 4 -- CONGRESSMAN CRIES TREASON!
FDR: Part 2 of 4 -- HARBINGER OF TREACHERY
FDR: Part 3 of 4 -- The Greatest Benefit
FDR: Part 4 of 4 -- You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet
Bank Overhaul Becomes Law
Consumer, Business Debt at Alarming Highs
BCCI
The Greatest Story Never Told
The Global Economy
Cafr's - How To Oust Governor Red Davis
What's To Worry About, Fdic? The Economy Is Booming!
War And Emergency Powers
Stock Market Mystery
The Market
The Great Dot-com Investment Bubble
Casualties Mount In Greenspan's War On Growth
How the Government Lies About Inflation
Money Issues
Greenspan Urges Review Of Fannie MAE, Freddie MAC
Riches To Rags In 34 Days
The Coming Battle Now On-line!
The Two Faces Of Greenspan
JFK & The Federal Reserve
Taxation: Outdated?
Russians Anticipate Dollar And Bush Crash
U.S. Financial Condition Must Be Addressed
Great Myths Of The Great Depression
Bush's Economic Stimulus Farce
When Gold Goes Back Up
Gold - It's On The Move!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

mikal
Gold Trail, a few months back, seems like yesterday...
From Sir Douglas, Trail Guide, FOA- Friend of Another(and all) on 11-02-01: "...At this point in time, there is no longer a concern that the Dollar's timeline might have no end in sight. With the world's more favorite form of trade settlement, digital currency, about to be represented by the moneys of a group of nations, the dollars singular drive to enhance the lives of only one people is about to end with the currency's credibility..." "...We will print whatever amounts needed..."
YGM
Worthy Link.....
http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals/political.htmlPolitical Corruption
A Collection of Links on politics and political corruption in relation to financial scandals.
mikal
Link
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.htmlOr click "goldtrail" at top of this page.
goldquest
1933 Double Eagle
YGM
F.O.A.'s "Profundity"
His Greatest...IMO....Gold has always been the most political metal our world has ever known; political because it offers
so much power to those that hold it in their hand. Many of the downtrodden look at government policies and say:

-----"they dictate our wealth and put us in debt so as to control us"! -------

Conversely; A simple person can control his controllers by staying out of debt and owning a wealth
no government can dictate the value of: Gold Bullion!

GOLD:
-- value it with official contracts and currencies and your wealth is their power ,,,,,,,,,, keep it as your savings of ages,,, and your wealth becomes their master!

TrailGuide


Boilermaker
GR2's Candlesticks
Many thanks for the candlestick lesson. You're trying to teach an old dog new tricks and that's not easy. Then also I'm conditioned to think anything that leads to trading is the work of the devil and the road to hell is lined with candlesticks. But its probably just the sign of a lazy mind or lack of talent. Anyway I just signed up for my 30 day trial at a candlestick site down the street and will see if I have any aptitude.

In the meantime I own the real stuff and shares in several producers with no loss of sleep(yet). I fully expect that things will get dicey when the financial system implodes. Whatever cards you hold on that day will spell your destiny. Sort of like the judgement day. Repent.
CoBra(too)
Gold and Gardeners ...
@ Belgium - It seems gardeners have a natural affliction to gold. To a true gold advocate and fellow gardener I tip my hat as an enthused gardener and a mere gold bug - though still seeing the VOG vs POG.

Thanks for all your great posts - Leve Yong ... cb2

Belgian
@ Canuck - CB Gold
Let us consider one FACT only and make logic deductions :
China : 1,2 billion people and close to second largest economical power, has *Officially* 500 tonnes of Gold-Reserves !!! We do suspect it is (or will become) much more than these 500 mt, but we can be sure it is certainly not less ! Because of the high profile public announcement of the increase from 400 mt to 500 mt.
Now put this tiny little stash in perspective. For instance lilliputan Belgium (10 million citizens) has 258 mt left from the 1.000 mt !!!
China is swimming in dollar-confetti, generated by exports to US and others. China is not selling Gold but accumulating. How does China has to take some 5.000 or 6.000 tonnes out of the market to match the US reserves for instance ? They can't. Where I want to suggest that if there were/are CB goldsales, there is always a willing amateur (China) to exchange its excesses of confetti for the yellow. But chineze are exporting at very competitive (absurd) prices and therefore isn't ready to pay a fortune for the ounces/kilograms/tonnes of the refined.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH GOLD !!! Not enough to satisfy each and everyones appetite for it. And in full paradoxal contradiction the CB goldsales MYTH must be fostered. It is *paperized* sales and nobody gives any Physical presents.
Gold is PRICED for the paper-public and VALUED for the happy holders.

Repeat from previous post : 1985 = US$ ATH and POG (not VOG) is 280$ ! Seventeen years later (2002) we are at the same price. See Sextant charts on POG/M1/M2/M3 and note the opening of the confetti gates at the date of 1971 ! 30 years of Carnaval with POG for everyone to see and VOG for those who did everything for NOT being forced to sell Gold-Reserve !

All loudspeakers (parots) on CB Gold sales don't see (understand) the difference between sales (reshuffle) of
Physical and paper-contract-gold-sales !!! Compare to what shareholders are doing with their holdings of (cheap) shares of known value. They never want to sell these holdings of the company they value. They optimize (and play) with an increasing diversity of derivatives on these holded shares ! These shareholders of the first hour have been doing this for generations. They will only sell Physical (shares) when they know their ship is sinking.

Derivative losses on precious tangibles (wichever) will always be settled with everything exept the sale of the tangible itself.

And on the other hand...those nations that have enough tonnes of Physical Gold in their reserves don't bother about a temporary *price*. Even if temporary means 20+ years. For the simple reason that they know how valuable that precious tangible is and that this Value will get an appropiate price at the appropiate moment, within a certain strategy (the concept) with a purpose !

We cannot expect inktkoelies (analusts/media) to elaborate on this theory, in dept for a weekly salary.

Remember we still don't know TO WHO this Gold is supposedly sold ! Hope I've taken away some CB-fear or itis. Regards.
Leigh
Belgian, Canuck
"Gold is PRICED for the paper-public and VALUED for the happy holders."

That's what Christian has been saying! He has actually been putting dollar amounts of the "VALUE" the happy holders are paying. I have been reading Christian's posts with a somewhat jaundiced eye, but now you're saying the same thing!!

This is getting interesting!

Canuck, the link you posted this morning from G-E wouldn't get by my family-friendly web filter! There must be a racy word in it somewhere.
CoBra(too)
WGC - Chris Thompson
@ MK - Since C.T. is in the neck of your woods -ah sua hope he's going to re-structure the WGC in the way he structured GOLD.

Considering the participants - it's going to be an uphill battle.

Let's hope for the best and as I've got trust in the man it may just work out fine ... See U after hours - cb2
YGM
The Man Behind the Great OZ...(Alan Greenspan)
TownCrier
Order today, enjoy by next weekend(??) How quickly do these ship, MK?
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlAt $5.95 for 175 pages, it's the best education going.

From the Foreword:
"This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter-century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor."
Sierra Madre
Do humans really learn?

Since it is Sunday afternoon here, perhaps the good people at this Forum will excuse a little philosophical musings?

Do humans really learn? I mean, really, really learn? To be a little clearer, after the age of 18 or so, can we learn anything new? By learning I mean, significantly change one's scale of values.

Perhaps by that age, (or even earlier?) we are already stuck with or have implanted in us, the values that are going to determine the rest of our lives. AFter 18, everything else that we do is a reflection of what we value, and those values change little, if at all. That's what I mean by "learning something new".

With regard to gold, I remember that by 18 I had come to the conclusion that gold, though not productive, was an extremely good thing - the ultimate thing - to own, because everyone wants it. Gold is power, because if you have what everyone wants, you can get (almost) anything you want from them.

The desire for power is innate in a man. In a woman, it is a perversion; a beautiful woman with desire for power is mighty - through sex, not gold. Such women are dangerous, mightier than armies! And they prepare for their loss of beauty, by - gold and diamonds. "Square cut or pearshape, these rocks don't lose their shape."

The powerful today - those behind the Central Banks - know this, and are accumulating gold. An "a priori" fact for me. If the powerful of today do not accumulate it, tomorrow they will not be powerful, deluded by their present paper games.

Thanks for reading!

Sierra




barnacle bill
Elliott Wave - The Great Schism
I remember back in the mid-eighties two elliott wave gurus; Frost and Prechter, having different wave counts. I think Frost said the Dow would go up to around 10,000 and Prechter said the Dow would top out at 3600.

Now I am seeing a similar situation in the gold market. The solution is obvious; dollar cost averaging. Do your thinking on a long term basis. An outstanding astrologer, Ray Merriman said to be prepared for a big move up or down. I know this sounds wishy-washy to you astrology skeptics out there, but for those who have studied astrology and know how it works will not find it wishy-washy at all.

And for all the religious skeptics out there remember that the six words God said after he created the sun, moon and stars was: "and let them be for signs..."
THX-1138
Mr.T translates the USAGold Forum
http://firefly.sparse.org/%7Emrt/cgi-bin/t.cgi?field=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usagold.com%2Fcpmforum%2FI just ran this website through the T'inator translator website.
http://firefly.sparse.org/%7Emrt/

It's hilarious to read the site translated by Mr. T.
Black Blade
Ericsson May Cut Up to 17,000 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rt/020421/tech_ericsson_jobs_1.html
Snippit:

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Loss-making telecom equipment maker Ericsson may lay off up to 17,000 staff with news on reductions expected on Monday when the firm unveils its first-quarter results, Swedish tabloid Aftonbladet said Sunday.


Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.
TownCrier
Thanks for the comments, Belgian. Your insights and intuitions are keen indeed!
Earlier today, Pippin posted this latest development in the monetary crisis sweeping Argentina:

-------"The Argentine central bank on Friday declared a complete and indefinite suspension of all banking activity in the country, in a sign of its desperation at money leaking out of the shattered financial system.
+
The bank said the suspension of all deposit and foreign exchange operations would begin immediately following the close of business on Friday."------

With the peso down 70 percent (measured against the also-floating dollar) since January, Argentine stocks, as represented by the MerVal, are up more than 40 percent. Not to be outdone, the gold PRICE in Argentina is up 250 percent since January began -- selling today near 950 pesos per ounce, up from 275 four months ago. And its VALUE for peace of mind going forward? Priceless.

Well-reported has been the recent gold-buying spree by the Japanese, driven by uncertainties in their own banking system.

Yet, despite its obvious superior performance as a financial asset even as this monetary crisis continues to grind along, can anyone guess why gold has remained largely "off the radar screen" of the typical Argentine citizen continually befuddled and vexed by bank "holidays" and capital controls, one after another? Certainly, those who owned gold in December are very glad that they did. How long until the mainstream comes around to this way of thinking and saving?

Currency/money is best seen as a thin layer of grease for the wheels, cogs, and sprockets of the real economy. Useful, to be sure, but messy beyond its purpose. Gold, on the other hand, is part of the physical economic machinery; that is, it is real wealth with a real value when owning it outright -- as with all other property. And no matter where you live or what your station in life might be, gold is the common ground -- property that is equally useful to all. A reliable vehicle for savings, now and through time. The more grease, the better it goes. Just be wary for any sudden changing rules of the road!!

R.
Black Blade
Armor-Plated Car Demand Rises in Mexico
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020421/bizautos_mexico_1.html
Snippit:

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Carolina stared through her windshield into two gun barrels pointed at her face by a pair of masked men who ordered her out of her car in a dark and deserted intersection of Mexico's capital city.

Frozen with fear, the businesswoman couldn't bring herself to meet the eyes of the assailants, who opened fire on her car. When the bullets bounced off, however, they quickly ran off in search of easier prey.

Only months before, Carolina's husband, worried about a growing wave of kidnappings and robberies targeting drivers, insisted that she have her car armor-plated to give him peace of mind.


Black Blade: I seem to recall that in South Africa a car was available that had flamethrowers on each side angled upward at 45 degrees to protect against car-jackings. I guess personal protection around the world has heated up a notch.
Belgian
@ Lady Leigh
The PRICE of a glass of water at niagarra falls is different from that same glass in the midst of the dessert.
Christian pretended to know the desert Value of water. I don't. Christian never elaborated (answered) on his price on the value. That lifesaving glass of water in the desert will certainly not be sold for *only* a fiat price. More is needed (cfr. oil : gold + fiat). Goldreserve's Value is more, much more than simply a price.
It is Valued by its function of acting as a *Reserve* and associated with the practicallity of fiat as a trade-settlement instrument.
Gold's precious function is double : Reserve and Valuator.
Reserve, needed in periods of crisis and Valuator of confetti and its policies.

Christian pretended to know how Gold insiders (CBs) were handling these two functions (reserve/valuator) with price-figures. Why did he never explained what he knew or suspected ? We also suspect (and accept) that Gold has been used in oil trade settlements, but have no concrete evidence of quantities (prices) involved. Each lifesaving glass of water will be traded differently according to the traders and the circumstances. How many times did a Gold coin (without price) saved a life ?

In other words, prices are there to see for everyone, every single second. Value is a constant and will sometimes be expressed with a price for practical reasons. cfr. My kingdom for a (golden) horse. Smile Lady.

France elections breaking news: The left excluded from presidency. More rightwings on Euroland and the euro !?
Debka : China and Iran (arms for oil trade)!!! Saudi Arabia questions US presence on Holy ground. Israel pushing the conflict closer to extremes with much further consequences ? And lots of other rocking news.
Leigh
THX-1138
I'm dying laughing! Everyone, click on THX's link!!! I've always wondered if we would get a "Mr. T" as a poster one day, but now he's crashed the party!
Leigh
Belgian
Belgian, I'm sorry I misunderstood you. We're all so hopeful for a "sign" around here that I really thought you were privy to Christian's secret information.

You're right; Christian isn't very forthcoming about the source of his wild assertions. Thanks for the thoughtfulness of your postings. I always look forward to seeing them and thinking about them.
Canuck
@ Belgian
Thanks for the note.

I agree with your thoughts. As fiat grows and thus to maintain (fractional) reserves, reserves of fiat must grow as well. Is it safe to assume then, especially in the case of Euroland that gold holdings must increase as well, a la 15%?

Rambling on this theory, coupled with your/my belief that many CB's will increase gold reserves ie: China, Russia etc
why do some believe that offical held gold will drop? Will we see 35,000 tonnes some day, 40,000 tonnes etc.?

The WGC site is most interesting, this is held gold yes? Of what proportion is 'out on loan'? I was shocked to see offical held gold steady at 32,000 tonnes. I wonder if anyone has been watching this closely? Does the WGC publish this number each quarter? I once asked Randy if he kept tabs of the ECB,(tonnage that is, not $/Euro value);is Euroland increasing reserves?

TownCrier
Note to new forum registrant, "amery"
I don't know what's going on with the hotmail.com e-mail system, but lately every time I have attempted to pass along requested posting info to anyone with a hotmail address, it gets bounced back as undeliverable. This has also eclipsed my efforts to provide passwords very recently to

2me
Hedgehog
Annie (B)
twili

If indeed these messages are not going through, please feel free (each and any one of you) to e-mail me directly with suggestions or an alternate e-mail contact.

Regards,

Randy
Mr Gresham
Leigh -- You're right! This is incredible
http://firefly.sparse.org/%7Emrt/cgi-bin/t.cgi?field=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usagold.com%2Fcpmforum%2FI didn't even watch the show that much -- imagine what could be done with other characters...
Mr Gresham
Now, if dis don' bring dat crazy fool FOA back
CoBra(too)
There was an important Election Sunday - Today -
in Euroland - First leftist chancellor Jospin stepped back and left the field to Chirac and (sorry to say) to Le Pen.

Much more of importance seems Sachsen-Anhalt - a province, which sent away socioalists and Schroeder - who always reminded me more of the Peanuts character than a life size politician - ... So, we'll see!

In Hungary the old leftifts - even if not winning- have made deals with liberals - and conservative Victor Orban can now look for a new Christian Name! Shame ...

... Interesting, as I didn't believe the socialists are outed in the old EU - though, I'm all for it!

Cheers - cb2
Hipplebeck
Argentina
I've seen a few stories lately about how the Argentines are trying once again to get IMF loans.
All I can say about this is if they can't find another way out of this mess than to crawl back into slavery they deserve what they get.
TownCrier
Canuck
Your comment:

"why do some believe that offical held gold will drop?"

I hope Belgian will jump in on this as necessary, but my own comment would be as follows: in popular perception, a rising *value* for gold should also be attended to by a rising *price*, and not just as an expected expression of monetary inflation.

Therefore, for clarity, we must be precise when we talk about increases or decreases in official gold. I do not think it likely that the *value* (as roughly expressed through snapshots in time) of these important holdings will ever decrease as a trend. HOWEVER, it may in fact become expedient at times for the tonnage to decrease -- reallocations dictated by political and economic circumstance.

And indeed, thus far there has been a (nearly insignificant) drawdown of the Eurosystem's gold *tonnage*, but the overall *value* (meaning -- as near as I can articulate -- its expression in current *price*) of the gold assets on hand have INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY nonetheless.

I touched on some of this in the following post --
TownCrier (04/11/02; 13:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 73171)
-- and have done likewise, in varying degrees of detail (with respect to actual tonnage in addition to price) with each prior quarterly mark-to-market operation of the ECB.

Hope its all been helpful.

Randy
mikal
A typical opinion piece that reveals bias in accepting suicide actions and violence- from another mouthpiece of the military/industrial establishment press. and medias role as the mouthpiece for the military-industrial complex stirring up a war frenzy
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020506&S=saidsnippit......But it is safe to say that the infrastructure of life itself and of any future Palestinian state--roads, schools, electricity pylons, water pipes, telephone lines--has been devastated."
By what inhuman calculus did Israel's army, using dozens of tanks and armored personnel carriers, along with hundreds of missile strikes from US-supplied Apache helicopter gunships, besiege Jenin's refugee camp for over a week, a one-square-kilometer patch of shacks housing 15,000 refugees and a few dozen men armed with automatic rifles and no missiles or tanks, and call it a response to terrorist violence and a threat to Israel's survival? There are reported to be hundreds buried in the rubble, which Israeli bulldozers began heaping over the camp's ruins after the fighting ended. Are Palestinian civilian men, women and children no more than rats or cockroaches that can be attacked and killed in the thousands without so much as a word of compassion or in their defense? And what about the capture of thousands of men who have been taken off by Israeli soldiers, the destitution and homelessness of so many ordinary people trying to survive in the ruins created by Israeli bulldozers all over the West Bank, the siege that has now gone on for months and months, the cutting off of electricity and water in Palestinian towns, the long days of total curfew, the shortage of food and medicine, the wounded who have bled to death, the systematic attacks on ambulances and aid workers that even the mild-mannered Kofi Annan has decried as outrageous? Those actions will not be pushed so easily into the memory hole. Its friends must ask Israel how its suicidal policies can possibly gain it peace, acceptance and security.
The monstrous transformation of an entire people by a formidable and feared propaganda machine into little more than militants and terrorists has allowed not just Israel's military but its fleet of writers and defenders to efface a terrible history of injustice, suffering and abuse in order to destroy the civil existence of the Palestinian people with impunity. Gone from public memory are the destruction of Palestinian society in 1948 and the creation of a dispossessed people; the conquest of the West Bank and Gaza and their military occupation since 1967; the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, with its 17,500 Lebanese and Palestinian dead and the Sabra and Shatila massacres; the continuous assault on Palestinian schools, refugee camps, hospitals, civil installations of every kind. What antiterrorist purpose is served by destroying the building and then removing the records of the ministry of education; the Ramallah municipality; the Central Bureau of Statistics; various institutes specializing in civil rights, health, culture and economic development; hospitals, radio and TV stations? Isn't it clear that Sharon is bent not only on breaking the Palestinians but on trying to eliminate them as a people with national institutions?...click link for more
mikal
Story: What Israel has done, by Edward Said
This is the attribution for the story I excerpted below. I apologize for its length, for I intended to cut and paste one paragraph, not two and a part of another. Thanks. MK-Please delete this if its too long. Thank You.
IGWA
Did I win the gold contest?
Been in the bush for a while, doing some work on my property (150 acres, tank water, solar power & a long way from anywhere) and with no 'phone/electricity out of touch.

So how did I go with $374.30?

igwa
IGWA
Oooops!
That should be $274.30.

$374.30 was when I was hooked like you guys, before I saw that the light at the end of the tunnel was the Government Express about to run me down.....
Gandalf the White
IGWA's Question !!
Sorry, IGWA, you missed it by that much !
$303.2 <--------------------------------------------------------> $274.3
<;-)
Canuck
@ TC, Belgian, All
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.htmlThanks TC, I see the trend and I await comments from Belgian and others.

Before I continue I must thank Mr. Gresham for the historical (graphing) of exchange rates (also of gold) via the link above.

I went back to your post 73171 and yes gold, has moved more strongly against the Euro than its counterparts, ie SDR, USD. Is it not true however that gold has moved strongly against many currencies in the last quarter including the USD (some 10% if one considers $275-->$302.50)? Referencing the above link shows much higher numbers using the rand and the yen. However this is easily justifiable considering the rand/yen fall against the USD, yes?

The statistical plotting in **price** gain of gold vs. currency X and as a function to all others seems to me to be nothing more than statistical mathematics. As currencies move and float about, and let's include gold as a currency for this discussion, is it not not much more than a giant matrix. Assume again for the sake of discussion, a static moment in time.

So I guess where I was going in the last couple of posts is who/ what is buying, who is increasing quantity. Let's start with the smallest 'Central Bank' in the world, me. I am dishoarding CDN dollars and accumulating physical gold. Why? Because I believe gold will perserve purchasing power more readily than CDN 'pesos' both in the intermediate future and in the long term. Let's be honest, I believe that gold will be a 'life perserver' and a 'store of value' to the extent that an ounce will someday allow me to use it 'as a medium of exchange' whereby paper might not even be considered.

Let's be static once again, $480 CDN today buys my family groceries for 2 weeks. An ounce of gold also is $480 CDN. One in theory could trade an ounce of gold, in this land for 2 weeks of supplies. As a kid I could buy candy for one-tenth of the money that is required today so I will assume, all things being equal, that $4800 will be required to buy 2 weeks groceries in the next generation. Will an ounce of gold be $4800 CDN in 15/20 years? What would then be the point of holding fiat, other than to lose one's shirt? So money must be invested, converted to maintain purchasing power. What then is the perfered medium to maintain the above?

Is gold the vehicle, is it the investment of choice? Will it outperform all others? Judging from the recent past(ie: 20 years) gold is ridiculously undervalued. Many have plotted the 'fair inflated price' for gold using the 1971 $35 price and agree at the notion of $600. Many have used the 1980 price and come up with $2000/3000/4000+. FOA has used a figure of $30,000, how has this number been calculated? The notion that the dollar has lost 99% of its puchasing power, (ie: the 100 multiple, 100x$300=$30,000)?

The fair **price** of gold, again I believe, is a exercise in arithmetric and statistical posturing. I believe gold will rise above and be greater than inflation, whatever and however that is defined by our fearless leaders.

The comment of the ECB that USD reserves has been lowered does raise eyebrows, this is significant. The thought that China and Russia (others?) are increasing gold reserves bodes well. The fact that Japanese are trading their local currency for gold is good news.

I noted a post the other day where someone mentioned that the last currency battle to be settled is the brawl between gold and the US dollar. It is interesting that a handful of CB's have made the choice.

I will watch the WGC site for quantities of CB held gold. It is probably the most accurate source of information that we have for this fact. I, at this point in time (might change tomorrow) will be tickled pink to see offically held gold INCREASE. This will reinforce my belief that "Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves".

Canuck

CoBra(too)
VOG -Again ... vs POG
... Whatever the POG today ... or tomorrow - Guess you've all given up any TA or fundamentally based demand/supply equations?

... As it seems - real money - however barbarous the relic may be - it turns out to be the - ONLY - real "Money"

Thogh - B's VOG may be the clincher! cb2
Hipplebeck
New World Order
Here we sit looking at events, and my biggest fear is that my fellow citizens become complacent in what they see.
It looks like this:
We are the borg
You will be assimilated
resistance is futile
If you resist
you are a terrorist
and will be destroyed.
The great black creature that dresses himself up in military garb with masks covering his face is a creature of fear.
Your fear?
No!!!
It is his own fear that causes him to hide his face.
It is his own fear that causes him to cluster behind slogans.
Why do you think they fear gold so much?
It is because gold represents individuality and freedom.
I wrote two years ago how I was taking gold and silver coins everywhere I went in my community and letting everyone I came into contact with handle the coins. I am afraid to say that the experiment was probably a failure. I am sure that some are rethinking, but my goal has probably not been met. I am now engaging in a new experiment. It was inspired by Jesus so many years ago. Now I am no longer charging for my labor. I am giving it away. In this new experiment, I don't have to pay taxes to these leaches that use the fruits of my labor for their awful designs. I know that this means I no longer have anything. I cannot live the normal life that we all yearn for, but what is the alternative? We talk here on the forum about how unfair this system of things is, and how the cabal and government, and bankers, and whoever else are corrupt, etc. but are we actively doing anything about it?
I am desperately trying to make a difference. I don't care anymore if I have to live in poverty. Jesus lived that way too. Unless we do something, all the talk is just bullshit.
I will keep you informed about what consequences this trail serves up to me. I just do not want to be a part of the system that I believe is so screwed up.
I don't have any kids thank God, and I expect my wife will leave me, but I am at a crossroads. I can no longer pay taxes to scum, and I can no longer put my labor into a system that I believe is corrupt. I am going to try to give my labor to older folks in need. Wish me luck.
CoBra(too)
Big Bro is watchin' u!
@ Hipplebeck - Sir and friend HB,
You're cavin' in to the PTB - Just what they thought to achieve in the long run.

C'mon on. You can do better - and you know it ... just imagine they're more desperate than you - since they need you ... cb2
Hipplebeck
Cobra
Sir,
Please explain what you mean by caving in.
I don't see it that way at all.
Cavan Man
@ Hipplebeck
Sir: Enjoy the surreal!The Lord is my Shepherd; I shall not want. (etcetera)
Cavan Man
PS Hipplebeck
Never fall in love with cars, houses, women or gold. Now, that doesn't mean you can't enjoy their company.

Cheers CB
Hipplebeck
Cobra
The salt of the earth turns to a new order of things, and the sharks devour each other. It was the Christians that built a new order and took away the foundation of the Roman Empire.
Hipplebeck
Cobra
Sir,
In any case, may we agree to disagree, and hope for the best?
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
May the Wind have Its Wings!


Hipplebeck, you're for real. You are on the trail of the real gold. The Spirit of Truth knows only victory, gives only wisdom, can give calm peace that surpasses understanding. Smiles at a hurricane and laughs at a tornado. Your right there. When we dig at the great "X" we can find the gold. Gold that has no fear. The small voice of truth that whispers behind your head saying "Go this way" "Stop and wait here""look at this, do you see this truth?". That is the way to walk on his hands like stepping stones.

Remember to seek out the circle of truth structure where we are all kindred brothers. Like a simple AA meeting is where truth comes forth and truth makes a man strong inside that no wife can compare to. The upper room was a circle with true love in the center. Organized religion where it's turned into a business is there to take away those who were not interested in staying in reality. Our belief levels will rise and fall like a stock chart but our faith IS our only possession no one can take away.

The only religion that the Golden One accepts is a simple obedience to the Spirit of Truth. In children's eyes it can be seen. Jesus paid his taxes in gold. But now He shines like gold, it says "burnished bronze".

Along the peak of the mountain is a narrow well worn trail but if we step to the right or left we fall off the edge.

MK -I had to say "hi" here and this is all about gold.
Only GOLD can show one how to keep gold, because the thief only comes to steal, to kill, and to destroy.
Christian
Credit Creation Gold.
I am going to try to make this as plain as I can....so bear with me!!!!! The Fed is owned my its member banks. Fed buys Treasury, GSE debt or anything else it wants to in order to ad reserves to its member banks by simply printing or digitalize the money out of nothing... Fed owns the U.S. Treasury gold stock which is now at the IMF. This gold is no longer available as a reserve. The Treasury now operates with a gold short position. This gold short reserve is deep storage gold not yet mined or processed. Bullion banks are backstopped by our government (taxpayers) or I should say the taxpayers are the counterparty. Stock indexes hold a core of big stocks and are held up in price of an ever increasing gold short position. Same is true with real estate. Corporations, banks use swaps to enable them to book loan proceeds as current operating income and the loan liabilities are swapped as capital expenditures. This makes possible for shareholder profit reporting and an expense for income tax reporting. Paper markets are used to control physical markets. These paper markets are derivatives - financial instruments that make possible the expansion of leverage (gearing) are used to gain control of more expensive financial tangible assets. This allows for dominance of an asset class at a fraction of the cost of direct ownership. This process of gearing (leverage) controlls the commodity, housing and stock indexes prices. Commodity gold is paper gold unless a person uses it for credit creation. Credit creation gold is priced at a much higher price because the same gold is leased and sold back to leasee again and again presently 30+ or - depending on reserve requirements. The public should figure this simple method out and create their own credit instead of sucking up to a credit card or bank. Banks no longer lend money a depositor deposited. A loan is an I.O.Y or promissory note formoney credit creation gold created. --. My house still has a $96,000 loan against it even tough I paid $40,000 for it and have a clear deed. The previous owner still owes the $96,000........ Under the doctrine of parents patriae, Government as Parent, all assets of the people and themselves are held as assets of the Depository Trust Corporation. The Federal Reserve is the "State" of the United States.......Treasury Act of 1921 our Congress turned the Treasury over to the FED....
Hipplebeck
GR2
Thanks for your encouragement. I have been at this crossroads for quite awhile, and finally got up the gumption to act. I can use all the support I can get. I am fully aware of what happens to those who buck the system, but I am not going to resort to violent rebellion. I seek a higher path. I think we live in a time of polarization. I believe we are in a time of crossroads not only for myself, but for all of civilization. I heard G. Bush say that we must choose, but I don't think he has a clue of the magnitude of the choices that confront us all in these times.
Golden Bear
Hipplebeck (msg#: 74009)
Sir Hipplebeck,

It can be difficult to keep positive when your awareness shows you corruption in abundance all around. However, if you can change your perception even slightly, it may make it easier for you to reconcile your desire for a just world and the current mess we have: Work for your money, pay your taxes to allow you and your family to enjoy the infrastructure that surrounds you for the benefit of all in your community - without our taxes it would not exist. And whatever savings are left, sink them into bullion as your financial insurance policy. Then in your spare time, give of your efforts freely to satisfy your soul's yearning to give... you win all round as your heart is satisfied with your efforts, without the need for extreme sacrifices.

just my humble opinion...

Cheers.
CoBra(too)
Hipple & GR2 ...
... I'm realy sorry to have stressed you - though, if you want to forgive me - please forget the topic -as it seems way beyond me - thank you - cb2
R Powell
Hipplebeck
Your new experiment reminded me of the story of a socialist teacher and his wife who left the teaching professing to live a subsistence life in northern, rural New England. Scott Nearing explained in "Living the Good Life" that what little money he had to earn to buy the few necessities they could not produce was earned with a set hourly rate if and only if it could not be earned with the barter system.
May I put a thought out for your consideration? It is similar to how I price some of my work. I try to charge, by the day, on an equal basis to what my customer makes. Doctors, lawyers and highly paid professionals often pay more for the same work than would the poorly paid working stiff. Those (homeowners) that offer coffee or cold drinks on hot days automatically get a $10.00 discount. Those that eat and drink around the pool patio while I drink from their garden hose pay a surcharge. Those that pay the bill in silver coins get a very substantial discount. I wish there were more payments in silver. No one has yet to offer gold.
The man you spoke of said something about rendering unto Caesar his due and rendering unto your God that which is due there. Clearly Jesus indicated that both obligations could exist simultaneously. If it's civil disobedience that is moving you, may your conscience be your guide. But remember, like both Thoreau and Prometheus, there is a price charged for nonconformity.
Good luck.
Rich

Hipplebeck
Christian
I follow what you are saying.
I have long said right here on the forum that bankers are monetizing everything. I think deep storage gold means that they have swapped gold in hand for unmined gold.
I believe that things have become so bizarre that I can find a counterparty for an acorn because some day that acorn represents hundreds of board feet of oak. The reality is that these financiers are monetizing all future commodities and all future labor into present financial instruments. How far will it go? Who knows, because it is cloaked in a veil of complicated doubletalk that only a "rocket scientist" can understand. It takes that classic moment when the child cries out "The King has no clothes!" before the veil is lifted and everyone realizes what fools they have been. It is possible that before it all blows up, some financial wizard will be able to monetize the labor of his great, great grandchildren into an instrument that he can trade now. Hell, hasn't the government already done that with the public debt?
email me at Hipplebeck1@cs.com if you would like to communicate further. I have a chainsaw, a lot of experience cutting trees, and soon will probably have no place to go.
Hipplebeck
R Powell, Cobra, Goldenbear
Thank you so much for responding to me!
These thoughts are ones that I have been considering for years. I do have all my assets in gold and silver coins. The only other asset that I have is my home, and my wife and myself are in the process of converting it into her name only so that I don't drag her into anything that she is not prepared for. I know that Jesus said render unto Ceasar that which is Ceasars, and I have contemplated this for years. I also know that he was different than the rest of us and that I am not him, but I am trying to find a way to emulate his path. I know that it is hard to understand, but I want to find a way around this new world order thing that looks so evil to me. I am 49 years old, a carpenter, and always have been a practical man, that is why I am trying to find a practical solution.
slingshot
Hipplebeck
Hang in there!You are not alone in your thoughts of the world. Yes it is giving me a fit too. I would also like to run for the mountains. Guess I like giving my wife hugs. (Hint Hint)
Your almost at Golds Goal.
Slingshot--------------------<>
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
CoBra(too)
Glad to see you online. The other day I wrote about Europe getting a Constitution as I read one of your posts and it was our interest. I wrote it hopeing you'd see it and maybe get a glimpse of how ours evolved out of our culture and that of the American Indians. I like the Indians because they were "in the earth" and had simplicity for a virtue. I used to search through books at college to get the original sayings of their chiefs and elders. It was my alternative to becoming a hippie. I didn't really want to be a hippie when I was young but I wanted to know why they rejected my whole "civilization". My folks were "Establishment" lots of money, toys, the whole suburban brat gig.

Well before I ramble off a ream, did you get to read my jib and jab about Europe's Constitution? And there was an excellent link another provided about the Iroquois Indians that made my day.
Hipplebeck
(No Subject)
Thanks for your encouragement.
I do not intend on giving up those hugs from my wife. Luckily I am married to a very special woman! I suppose all goldbugs could say the same. I am not really running for the mountains although that sounds like such a romantic fantasy. It is so frustrating to try to find some plan that can offer a practical life while finding a new way of doing things that also doesn't involve going to jail or losing your home and belongings. I probably look pretty paranoid to most people, but I have not forgotten that the early Christians were put to death for the crime of trying to find a better way of society.
I am going to quit taking advantage of the generosity of our host to talk on such a personal basis. Thank you Michael for your indulgence. And thank you fellow goldbugs for your support.
Waverider
1933 Double Eagle
http://americanhistory.si.edu/csr/nnc/doubleea/doubleea.htmMore on this gem...the coin is apparently in the confines of the Fort Knox Gold Bullion Depository in Kentucky, and the proceeds of the sale will be divided between the US Mint Enterprise Fund and Stephen Fenton, the British dealer who imported the coin. The coin was struck from the same dyes as the two 1933 double eagles housed in the National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Institute (see pictures via the attached link). I presume it is the matching of the dyes that is the ultimate test of authenticity. Quite a fascinating history...thanks Simply and Goldquest for your information too. Cheers!

Waverider
Black Blade
NEW JUNK BONDS ON A RECORD-SETTING RUN
http://www.nypost.com/business/46055.htm
Snippit:

April 21, 2002 -- Yield-hungry investors are pumping billions into junk bond funds while new high yield bond issues are looking to set a new 12-month record.

Black Blade: Desperation or just bringing in the suckers to the craps tables.
Black Blade
In Argentina, fear feeds gun sales
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0422/p06s02-woam.html
Gun stores report a 50 percent increase in sales since December, as citizens respond to increased crime.

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES � Fernando Janeiro fetches a short-barrelled, stockless shotgun from the shelf, breaks the barrel, and hands it to a potential customer. Mr. Janeiro has little need for a fancy sales pitch, as the weapons are selling themselves. "The doors have barely closed when the next customer walks in," he says.

These days, however, customers are spurning hunting rifles in favor of short-range weapons designed to inflict maximum damage at minimum range. Argentina's laws on gun ownership are more relaxed than elsewhere in Latin America. Permit applicants are required to pass a series of proficiency, medical, and safety tests, but most ordinary citizens can obtain a permit in 10 days.

Black Blade: The times are changing in Argentina. Now that the banks have gone belly up and are closed absconding with the peoples savings, crime will rocket higher.

Black Blade
When the going gets tough, wary investors turn to gold
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/3109476.htm
In 2002's first quarter, gold stock mutual funds posted a 35.20 percent total return.

Snippit:

After a long and deep slump, gold is the stock market's new sensation. In the first quarter, gold stock mutual funds posted a 35.20 percent total return, according to Lipper, the mutual-fund tracker. "What's causing this is a number of things, all associated with a weak economy," said Joe Foster, a geologist who manages Van Eck International Investors Gold, a mutual fund that is up 50 percent this year and 79 percent over the last 12 months. The decline in stocks since early 2000 and low interest rates over the last 15 months, Foster said, have pushed investors into a place where they feel they can protect their investments against extreme downturns. "Gold tends to do well when other asset classes are doing poorly," he said.

The recent action in gold also has centered on its sudden attractiveness in Japan, where the government plans to impose a $75,000 limit on insurance on timed bank deposits - such as certificates of deposit. That insurance limit will be expanded next year to all Japanese savings deposits, Foster said. That takes some of the security out of bank deposits - and makes gold seem safer. In fact, Japanese investors, reeling from the nation's recession and fearful of a banking system collapse, were seen buying bags full of gold coins in late March, according to a British press report.

At the same time, the supply of gold is tight: Worldwide production has declined to such a point that a number of analysts are saying gold bullion prices should stay at or above $300 an ounce.


Black Blade: Old news, but fun to read as Gold rises on bad economic data worldwide. Gold should continue to outperform on news of war, economic collapse, banking disasters, and higher energy costs. There has been one story after another that has shaken confidence in the investment world. As banks collapse in Argentina, it's a cinch that the same will happen in Japan. These problems are certain to wash up on European and US shores just as what happened in the late 1920's.
YGM
Pretty Interesting Reading .............(long)
http://www.doprocess.net/articles/FREEMN5A.HTM***Excerpt.......


America is Bankrupt

Later, when I went to visit the judge, I told him of my problem with the supreme Court cases dealing with Public Policy rather than Public Law. He said, "In 1938, all the higher judges, the top attorneys and the U.S. attorneys were called into a secret meeting and this is what we were told:

America is a bankrupt nation it is owned completely by its creditors. The creditors own the Congress, they own the Executive, they own the Judiciary and they own all the State governments.

Take silent judicial notice of this fact, but never reveal it openly. Your court is operating in an Admiralty Jurisdiction call it anything you want, but do not call it Admiralty.

Admiralty Courts

The reason they cannot call it Admiralty Jurisdiction is that your defense would be quite different in Admiralty Jurisdiction from your defense under the Common Law. In Admiralty, there is no court which has jurisdiction unless there is a valid international contract in dispute. If you know it is Admiralty Jurisdiction, and they have admitted on the record that you are in an Admiralty Court, you can demand that the international maritime contract, to which you are supposedly a party, and which you supposedly have breached, be placed into evidence.

No court has Admiralty/Maritime Jurisdiction unless there is a valid international maritime contract that has been breached.

So, you say, just innocently like a lamb, "Well, I never knew that I got involved with an international maritime contract, so I deny that such a contract exists. If this court is taking jurisdiction in Admiralty, then place the contract in evidence, so that I may challenge the validity of the contract. What they would have to do is place the national debt into evidence. They would have to admit that the international bankers own the whole nation, and that we are their slaves.

No Expedient

**But, the bankers said it is not expedient at this time to admit that they own everything and could foreclose on every nation of the world. The reason they don't want to tell everyone that they own everything is that there are still too many privately owned guns. There are uncooperative armies and other military forces. So, until they can gradually consolidate all armies into a WORLD ARMY and all courts into a single WORLD COURT, it is not expedient to admit the jurisdiction the courts are operating under.**

When we understand these things, we realize that there are certain secrets they don't want to admit, and we can use this to our benefit.

Cont'd.........................
Black Blade
Nikkei Flies While the Hang Seng Dies
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei 225 is flying high since April 1st when the April Fools Day Surprise was unleashed on the Japanese public. In order to keep the Nikkei from falling further, the Japanese Government Pension Fund has been buying select shares to prop up the market just as they claimed they would. The question is: will the Nikkei continue to rise strongly once funds are depleted and will investor confidence be restored. Meanwhile the rest of the Asia markets are generally lower to unchanged.

Petroleum prices are rising higher as well. Oil isup to $26.57/bbl and NG is up to $3.57/Mbtu. The US Dollar is falling skightly to most foriegn currencies. Gold is slightly higher by 50 cents. This week should get interesting on Wall Street as Telecoms and Techs release earning warnings (oops! I mean earnings statements).

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
Get ready -- SPOT and SPIKE are awaking !!!
SPARKS are flying in the Crystal Ball tonight !!!!!!!
<;-)
YGM
Papacy, NWO, Banks etc..............
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/bb000723.htmExcerpt.....

In Revelation 17:12-13 - Part II: The Black Nobility we learnt how the Royal Families of England and Europe (known as the Black Nobility because of their inherent evil) will be honored by Rome from the outset of their New World Order. "The ten horns on the beast are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but will receive power as kings one hour with the beast. These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast."

The "Divine right of kings" stems from the presumed temporal authority of the Pope who is feared by their subjects because of his presumed Spiritual authority as "Vicar of Christ". In return for Papal accreditation Royalty support Rome's edicts militarily. So "ends" justify "means", and one legitimizes the other. History is about to repeat.

To the founders of the Jesuits (which arose from the Illuminati or Alumbrados) it seemed clear that it was necessary not only to combat the Reformed religion but also to oppose the rising spirit of nationality -- a spirit which, if allowed to work unchecked, would bring to naught the Imperial pretensions of the Papacy. What we call a New World Order or one world government today has been a long time in the womb (Matthew 4:8-11; Revelation 12:7).

Those who are wise will see how the Illuminati began to infiltrate and take control of Rome through the Jesuits. Their insignia forms the Great Seal of the United States (approved in 1782), and has appeared on the back of the U.S. one dollar bill since 1933. Ask yourself, who controls the United States?

Without the knowledge or consent of citizens, Illuminatus and Communist U.S. President F.D. Roosevelt signed Senate Document 43, which states, "The ultimate ownership of all property is in the State; individual so-called ownership is only by virtue of government, and use must be in accordance with law and subordinate to the necessities of the State." (Before leaving office on March 4, 1933, President Hoover had refused to sign the original draft of this document prepared by the Federal Reserve Board -- NOT Congress -- declaring it "unconstitutional").

Upon taking office the following day, Roosevelt signed it into law by Executive Order 2039 without Congressional approval then on March 9 he convened Congress and bullied them into authorizing what he had already done, declaring it a "national emergency".

What this means to Americans today is that they do not own their car, home, land or any other material object. They merely possess a right or license from the State for its use. And that can be withdrawn by caprice. America is legally already a Communist state and knows it not. (A certain Man prophesied this would occur in the Laodicean Age. Read Revelation 3:17).

What citizens consider personal possessions are collateral for the bankers who call the shots. "Government" has a right to tax anything and everything because "government" owns everything. They call these taxes "licenses" and "permits."

Interestingly, Canon Law states, "The Pope, as Vicar of Christ on earth and universal Pastor of his sheep, has indirectly a certain supreme power for the good estate of the Church, if it be necessary, of judging and disposing of all the temporal goods of all Christians".

As the Seal of Solomon was attached to the Shield of Britannia, and the Judaistic symbol of the Serpent was entwined around her Trident, Roosevelt handed over the gold supply of the USA to the privately-owned tax-exempt Federal Reserve. You should make it a point to learn who owns the shares of the Federal Reserve?

In 1933 the U.S. owned 40% of the gold in the world. By 1963, it was said that the Rothschilds (remember that name) had withdrawn all the gold from England and the United States to their coffers in France, Belgium, Switzerland and Holland.

The ideal of the Papacy at the Reformation was, as it is now, universal dominion, which was seriously threatened by the rise of separate nationalities. To restore the national dominion of the Papacy by making war against the national spirit was the consistent and persistent policy of the Jesuits. The ideal of the founder of the Order was, in the words of Goethe, To "fuse all nations."

When Ezekiel saw God, he saw a wheel in the middle of a wheel (Ezekiel 1:16). Who (under Lucifer) controls the Illuminati, the Jesuits and the Roman Catholic church? Wheels within wheels below.


Cont'd................
TownCrier
More for Canuck, all -- on the making of "Free Gold"
You offered the following comment: "The statistical plotting in **price** gain of gold vs. currency X and as a function to all others seems to me to be nothing more than statistical mathematics. As currencies move and float about, and let's include gold as a currency for this discussion, is it not not much more than a giant matrix."

Yes, efficient markets being what they are, the price of any globally traded asset in terms of one currency is adequate to determine its corresponding price in any other currency -- assuming that you have access to the exchange rates for the day. One big "matrix" as you say.

It is important to understand, however, that gold lies outside of this matrix. Its value is free to float universally, and thus, any increase in value according to a shift in usage would (under ideal circumstances) correspond to an increase in its price throughout the whole matrix. And as has been a prevailing topic of my posts among others, there is growing evidence of structural changes underway that shall ensure in coming days that the spot price associated with gold will in fact become representative of its PHYSICAL value. (The current "spot" prices, based on the illusory abundance of paper gold created by bullion banking, is a fiction of understated value when applied to physical gold in hand. Therefore, take advantage of this (and take delivery!) while the illusion holds.)

In looking at my post from April 11th, you seemingly focused on the ECB asset performance over the first quarter of 2002. You noted that gold was up by 10% in terms of its price.

However, the paragraph I had hoped you would take particular note of was the one regarding asset performance since EMU launch in 1999. While the amount of eurosystem gold TONNAGE has been affected only marginally during this time, there is no mistake that the amount of its VALUE (as reflected by the market PRICE -- warts and all) has risen significantly. Here's the paragraph from my post:

"the gold asset account continues its generally steady climb since euro-launch January 1999 where it stood on the books at 99.598 billion euro. Allowing for the bolstering of the gold asset account by 1.5 billion euro with the Greek membership in January 2001 (and not forgetting the measure of early Dutch, Austrian, and late German sales in accordance with the Central Bank Agreement on Gold), the gold assets of the Eurosystem have performed nicely over the years, now valued at EUR 139.808 billion."

And to ensure my underlying point comes through, I would now pause to draw your attention specifically to the ECB-driven Central Bank Agreement on Gold in September 1999 as a means to begin to address some of the structural "price-versus-value deficiencies" in the physical gold arena. There remains much more yet to achieve toward these ultimate ends. Foreseen and discussed by a small handful of other progressive thinkers (including himself), FOA gets the credit here for giving this end goal a name: "Free Gold".

It shall be. And though it may go against the intuitions of those who think governments would never cede an inch of control, they will ultimately support and endorse its arrival in the interests of warding off undue systemic risk in this financial realm. It is the final evolutionary phase of this gold-as-property fair-pricing system that will result in the "one-time revaluation" adjustment that will cause physical gold to be the "investment of a lifetime" as FOA and ANOTHER have endeavored to explain.

Randy
Sierra Madre
YGM your message 74034

This is not the appropriate site for the material you have posted.

Beware! Siberia is cold.

Sierra
TownCrier
Heads up on structural monetary reform, follows Saturday's posts of grousings by the French
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020422/economy_asia_stiglitz_1.htmlHEADLINE: Asia should pool forces to stand up to US

TOKYO, April 22 (Reuters) - Asian economies should pool their huge foreign exchange reserves as a step toward a reshaped international monetary system that would be less of a tool of U.S. interests, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Monday.

...Because a substantial proportion of reserve assets is held in U.S. Treasury securities, the United States enjoys access to capital on cheaper terms that allows it to live beyond its means, he said.

``An Asian monetary arrangement, an expansion of what is already going on, could serve as the beginning of this new global regime,'' Stiglitz said.

``That agenda would be of enormous benefit to the economies of the region but also for political and economic stability not only in the region but also for the whole world,'' he said.
--------

This is all probably more than enough to absorb for one weekend. It's been fun!

Call Centennial this week to get your own gold order in the pipeline.

Regards,

R.
YGM
Sierra Madre
What are you the off topic referee...?The link was not intended for it's religious content partner
So unless your comment was meant friendly and my link was taken out of context as per CABAL, NWO/Gold etc I'll not worry about what you think is appropriate here. YGM
Just waking up
Dear Hipplebeck,
If you are motivated to go out and freely fulfill people's needs by a spirit of love and faith, then my hat is off to you and I'm sure you will behold miraculous providence.

But if there is even just a little anger in your motivation, the evil of this world has gotten to you, and your path will be a greivous mistake.

Be sure it is God who is leading you and not your own sense of frustration.

God be with ye,

Bob
neer-do-well
whatever
Late Sunday night, lookin for change, don't see much.

I've a good use for GOD if and when he starts seeing things my way. Judging by religious people that could take awhile.
Mr Gresham
Hipplebeck
Blueberry Hill"Now I am no longer charging for my labor. I am giving it away. "

Now you've really touched a nerve! Making an end run around gold's "appreciation", and right to the root question of exchanging our lives for fearful materiality. To "coin" an image, I think I just saw satan's throne shake a tiny bit. While reaching the hearts of your neighbors with a power beyond our fear of impoverishment.

You confront evil from a higher level than challenging those mired in doing it work. More certain than trying to deduce and undo its games. Your sure-footed path will be from heart to heart as you touch others.

Your challenges will be many, but they will be to discern Love from Fear inside yourself, as others mirror it to you from themselves when they see your work.

Of Jesus' words for you, the ones that jump out for me were: "Behold, I send you forth as sheep in the midst of wolves: be ye therefore wise as serpents, and harmless as doves." Matt.10:16

Means, to me, an invocation against blind martyrdom. Keeping an eye open to giving your labor to instruct (and learn) something. Means you don't have to take s*** from anybody, just move on, but stay on course as best you can.

I also know a hill you could build a treehouse up on -- though not the original location, 'cause the locals burned that one, tree and all...

excerpt from below:

"A magic dwells in each beginning,
protecting us
tells us how to live."

Steps
from "The Glass Bead Game" by Hermann Hesse, Nobel Prize for Literature 1946

"As every blossom fades
and all youth sinks into old age,
so every life's design,
each flower of wisdom,
every good attains its prime
and cannot last forever.
In life, each call the heart
must be prepared courageously
without a hint of grief,
submit itself to other new ties.
A magic dwells in each beginning,
protecting us
tells us how to live.


High purposed we must traverse
realm on realm,
cleaving to none as to a home,
the world of spirit
wishes not to fetter us
but raise us higher,
step by step.


Scarce in some safe
accustomed sphere of life
have we establish a house,
then we grow lax;
only he who is ready
to journey forth
can throw old habits off.


Maybe death's hour too
will send us out new-born
towards undreamed-lands,
maybe life's call to us
will never find an end
Courage my heart,
take leave and fare thee well."




Old Yeller
Fed Bubble Symposium in Chicago
http://www.chicagofed.org/newsandevents/conferences/assetprice/assetbubblesprogram.cfm#tue
Looks like quite a show,don't forget your Mr.Bubble.

We could raise quite a ruckus,or at least,raise a few eyebrows,with our opinions on the matter.
Mr Gresham
Bubbles, Bubbles, Bubbles!
http://www.chicagofed.org/newsandevents/conferences/assetprice/assetbubblesprogram.cfm#tue"Somebody turn off the bubble machine!" -- old Lawrence Welk joke.

Old Yeller you really caught one:

"Keynote Speaker:
The Honorable Jean Claude Trichet, Governor,
Bank of France"

Anybody who's anybody (almost) will be there...
Black Blade
Gold, Oil, and NG Higher
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is up a buck, Oil and NG are moving higher as well. Market indice futures are lower as fears of more earnings warnings dominate and earnings estimates are severely lowered. All the while, war is more likely with the ME situation still looking ugly, Irag invasion is certain, and now terrorist bombings in the Philipines.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
CRB - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Oil, and NG all Higher
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
The CRB Bridge site has PMs and Petroleum all higher. War and ME tensions are playing a role.
Black Blade
Europe Awash In Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are very unhappy this morning as all are negative (unless anyone really considers Russia a market). Gold should strengthen on French election results.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
French Elections: The Right Versus The...Really Right

PARIS -(Dow Jones)- They weren't kidding.

In Sunday's first round of French presidential elections, voters predictably put incumbent center-right president Jacques Chirac in the May 5 runoff. But in a stunning upset, voters chose Jean-Marie Le Pen from the far right National Front party as Chirac's opponent, and rejected Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin - who has run much of the government's operations since 1997 - despite a broadly positive economic record....

Black Blade: Very interesting.

Spartacus
Canada
http://www.nationalpost.com/
VANCOUVER - Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine, predicted yesterday Canada will adopt a common currency with the rest of North America.

"I don't know what it will be called but there will be a common currency," said Mr. Forbes, who campaigned for the Republican nomination for the presidency in 2000.

Black Blade
Boomers' bursting bubble
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=19022002-053237-5292r
Snippit:

As the pattern of overstretched accounting and unexpected bankruptcies widens, it is becoming clear that in the United States we are facing a once-in-a-generation financial meltdown, whatever the effects on the real economy. For the baby boom generation, the late 90s was the bubble of a lifetime, and its bursting calls into question whether that generation's attributes, which made the 60s unique, were also responsible for the 90s.


Black Blade: The bubble is still deflating and it has a very long way to go. Valuations for the techs, telecoms, and dot.coms are in the stratosphere. The housing bubble may be next.
Black Blade
Argentina's Daylight Robbery
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1019412498.html
Snippit:

New Canaan, Connecticut, April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's President Eduardo Duhalde has given yet another convincing reason to foreign investors to shun his country. He is mulling a plan to forcibly exchange embargoed bank deposits for government bonds. If this is what Duhalde is willing to do to his own countrymen, think what he might do to foreign investors. Duhalde's government says it is attempting to limit the flow of funds hemorrhaging from the banking system. In fact, this plan, and any other loose talk about confiscating deposits, only maximizes the outflow.


Black Blade: "Argentine Tears". They are coming in the form of government bonds. More transfer of wealth from the people to the ruling elite. The people never learn. If they only had put a portion of their savings in Gold and Silver. Japan is soon to follow.
Black Blade
Argentina 'risks financial collapse'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1941000/1941739.stm
The government wants to stop the withdrawal rush

Snippit:

Argentina's entire financial system could collapse if the run on its banks continues, President Eduardo Duhalde has warned. People have to be prepared to overcome the crisis that is affecting the whole country - President Duhalde. His comments come a day after all foreign exchange and banking transactions were halted indefinitely. "We run the risk that the system will explode if the judges continue to authorise people to withdraw their money," he said.

Banks have come under renewed pressure because of increasing cash withdrawals after courts overturned restrictions on access to savings. On Friday alone, account holders withdrew $200m dollars from banks in Argentina, according to one newspaper estimate. Huge crowds gathered outside banks as people tried to cash their salary cheques and get money from automated teller machines.


Black Blade: Wait until Japanese depositors run on the insolvent Japanese banks. I am sure many in Japan have a nervous eye on Argentina these days. In a word � "GRIM"
Black Blade
G7 concern as Argentina suspends all banking
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3D1WCP80D&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CC
Snippit:

The Argentine central bank on Friday declared a complete and indefinite suspension of all banking activity in the country, in a sign of its desperation at money leaking out of the shattered financial system. The bank said the suspension of all deposit and foreign exchange operations would begin immediately following the close of business on Friday.

Although temporary halts have been called before, this is the first complete freeze since the country plunged into crisis around the turn of the year, following a default on its external debt and the suspension of International Monetary Fund crisis lending. A spokesman for the IMF had no immediate comment on the action. On Saturday, finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven leading industrialised countries meeting in Washington as of "serious concern".


Black Blade: "serious concern" is putting it mildly. As the first domino in a continent of shaky economies and even shakier currencies, Argentina is foremost on the minds of many. If Argentina goes, it is a sure bet that Venezuela, Brazil, and Uruguay )and possibly Paraguay) are sure to follow. The Venezuelan Bolivar is shaky, the inflation rate is in double digits, the oil sector and the state owned petroleum company (PDUSA) is in turmoil with no real tech improvement and no significant replacement of reserves, and El Presidente Hugo Chavez has now to prove himself. Brazil's currency the Real is falling fast, inflation has been a problem in Brazil for many years, and last years energy crisis in Brazil has not been addressed. Brazil is also a major trading partner with Argentina. Uruguay was considered the Switzerland of South America with secrecy and safety in banking. Now with the banking problems next door in Argentina a lot of cash is coming home to needy depositors. Paraguay is the most impoverished nation in SA, and when their neighbors suffer, they too are sure to suffer. Anyone in SA who has not any savings in Gold and Silver may eventually find themselves as bad off as the Argentine people.
nickel62
Black Blade refered to this article in Bear's Lair....this snippit caught my eye..
At least the first part of this saga appears to have repeated itself in the 1990s. Previous standards of executive remuneration were swept aside by the mania for stock options, and the refusal to book them properly in company income statements. Previous standards of stock valuation were swept aside in the dot-com mania, where companies that were far from even the prospect of showing a profit were able to raise billions. Previous standards of Wall Street analysis were swept aside by Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget and their cohorts, using their privileged positions as Wall Street analysts, not to provide investors with information, but to pump up the ever-escalating bubble. In political life, previous standards of veracity (even that of Richard Nixon) were swept aside by a president who refused to define the word "is." And of course, as Enron showed, previous standards of conflict of interest avoidance were ignored by the Enron executives who benefited from the special purpose companies, and previous standards of audit behavior were trashed along with Enron documentation by the Andersen accountants even as lawsuits loomed.

The result was a gigantic stock market bubble, which swept aside not only recent standards of valuation but even those of the late 1920's, regarded by all observers until about 1995 as an aberrant peak never again to be approached.

Clint H
Sierra Madre, thanks for saying it.
Sierra Madre (04/21/02; 23:28:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74036)

I agree. Thanks for saying it for many of us.
nickel62
Hipplebeck I really enjoyed this commnet of yours and I think it helps put derivatives into perspective and allows us to start to understand why they are so hard to grasp..thanks..from Hipplebeck #70022
I have long said right here on the forum that bankers are monetizing everything. I think deep storage gold means that they have swapped gold in hand for unmined gold.
I believe that things have become so bizarre that I can find a counterparty for an acorn because some day that acorn represents hundreds of board feet of oak. The reality is that these financiers are monetizing all future commodities and all future labor into present financial instruments. How far will it go? Who knows, because it is cloaked in a veil of complicated doubletalk that only a "rocket scientist" can understand. It takes that classic moment when the child cries out "The King has no clothes!" before the veil is lifted and everyone realizes what fools they have been. It is possible that before it all blows up, some financial wizard will be able to monetize the labor of his great, great grandchildren into an instrument that he can trade now. Hell, hasn't the government already done that with the public debt?
Boilermaker
Gold and Raligion
I have noticed that periodically the subject of religion enters the forum with many views expressed. While this is undoubtedly not directly connected with gold and while it makes our kind and generous host understandably nervous, I see a valid though abstract connection between the two.

Gold has been the truest form of monetary expression for millenia but it is inevitably corrupted by persons and governments who knowingly or unknowingly corrupt the original standards. Religion, at least the Christianity that is my faith, has as its golden standard Christ, the untarnished Son of God. Christianity is inevitably corrupted by men and religious groups who knowingly or unknowingly corrupt the original standards.

So it is not surprising to me that many on this forum feel a similarity between the two subjects and periodically express them.
Christian
Stagflation
Central Bankers are monetizing everything, including future production of commodities. Real Estate is a commodity. These are paper contracts and the paper contracts allow control over physical. Some time later this year interest cost will start to move up and that will bring on stagflation. Less money available to buy new things with.------------------- More carbon is stored in thinned forests then undisturbed forests. Biomass removal from a forest will lower carbon storage- because the wood is not allowed to decay on the forest floor. The ground area available influences its growth. Every year I can turn 60,000 brush trees into growing trees by thinning. I can double the growth rate and value of each tree. I have at least 11 million trees on my wood lot but really only have room for 1 million. The one million trees presently gain in value about 5 cents per tree per year. Most of this woodlot could be harvested in 25 years. How can I continue to thin and improve the growing condition of 60,000 trees a year and cash flow the operation without having to sell the trees when they have the least value? In this state 42% of the woods has been stripped of its wood over the last 14 years. Most of it goes for pulp and chips. By thinning I select the best tree to grow into a log and at the same time ad nutrients to the ground. Tree mortality from overcrowding is a direct drain on tree growth. My goal of timber translates into growing high value trees faster. Tree growth repond to increased sunlight and a straight clear stem to produce high value. But how can I bankroll it? I have about 250 acres done out of the 967 acres.
Nomad
Thank You BB !
http://www.fourthturning.com
I read with (great) interest the UPI article based on Strauss & Howe's book. For those of you who have noticed I have posted the link above again and again in an effort to entice some of you to read more of their writings.

I think that NO ONE can truly understand the events of the last decade (and the decades to come) without reading some of the excerpts from this book. 'Generations', the book mentioned on UPI is the precursor to the 4T book above.

Just an anecdote to help you understand what a help this has been ...

Last year in the fall, my father was in the local country coffee shot shooting the s**t with the other local oldtimers and he got into one of his usual conversations with a new guy. My father explained about the various social/generational cycles and how the end result always seemed to be a Crisis which occurs with clockwork regularity in the USA about every 80 years. In fact my father told his friend, we should be now on the lookout for 'an event or series of events which will radically change the economic and politically landscape and ideas of this country'. Just as my father imparted this bit of information, one of the other patrons walked over, and with a shell-shocked look on his face and said the the WTC had just been hit by two airplanes ... My father said, well, that's it then ... that's what I have known was coming for quite some time.

My father's friend look as green as anyone could possibly get before he stammered out 'How in the **** did you do that ?!@#@@!'

This is the power of the 4T book.

My father knew something like 911 was coming and so did I. We even knew (within a 5 year window) exactly when it would happen, and what would be the effect on the mindless masses (a huge move to the right, increased government surveillance and extensive clampdowns on all sorts of 'aberrant' activities). We knew it and you should have too :) Equally importantly, we also understand that 911 is not the endgame, but simply the first volley in a long drawn out generation-long script. 911 was only the 'Catalyst' not the Crisis. The best/worst is yet to come.

Anyways, thanks for posting the link, BB and letting me vent and with a bit of luck a few more eyes will be opened.

Nomad
Mr Gresham
R-E- (ligion?)-S-P-E-C-T
http://www.devvy.com/viera.htmlFor me, it's about using respect, for the patience and the beliefs of fellow readers, when you post using words we associate with religion. Self-restraint rather than censorship necessary. Bringing something interesting to others yes. Pushing a doctrine, no. I don't feel like anyone has been overdoing anything lately, and I can skip over one or two things if they don't grab my attention.

I stayed up last night reading the Vieira lecture given on the devvy.com site. Talk about taking things back to square one. My brain is struggling with "Are these the same right-wing nuts I grew up fearing and hating -- or was that just propaganda? Am I turning into one, as my beliefs change?"

How can my beliefs ever evolve if I'm not exposed to new ideas? I'll have to make my own selection, however. Sure is hard when you feel like you've just started to grow up, and you're feeling kinda old at the same time...
USAGOLD Market Commentary
Gold on the Move; French Elections, Japan Fuel UpsideNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Mr Gresham
John Mauldin: Muddle Through Economy
http://www.2000wave.com/home1/home1.htmlHaven't seen him linked here before -- more about swaps and Greenspan's interest rate strategy -- or trap.
YGM
Bulliondesk News Links....
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/News.aspIs a very busy page today....Gold is definately more newsworthy of late than in many years past...


Sierra & Clint H (apparently speaking for many)....

My apologies if you took offense to the link. I still maintain that parts of the page had relative info, and as I said it was not meant to be about any Religious, Secular or Ethnic views. I should have edited the excerpt possibly but it's not right to be selective w/o providing the page so others can review. This would be akin to censorship or maybe a form of plagurism. I shall be more forumiticly correct in future......YGM
TownCrier
Celebrate "Earth Day" today with your own piece of Mother Nature...
YGM
Old (1905) But Parallel To Today....
http://www.shout.net/~bigred/ff-+- *Frenzied Finance* Is Announced -+-

"In the great financial happenings of recent years story tellers
have given their version; political economists their theories;
reformers their pictures; and historians their tablets. For the
first time in the history of High Finance we have the High Priest
tell it as it happened..." -- New York Evening Post, June 21,
1904

"Personally I know that one hundred million dollars were lost,
thirty men committed suicide, and twenty previously reputable
citizens went to the penitentiary, directly because of
Amalgamated... [Amalgamated] was created because of my work...
the plain people invested two hundred million dollars of their
savings, and it was because of trickery and broken promises that
the public lost the enormous sums they did." -- Thomas W. Lawson

-+- Mr. Lawson's Dedication -+-

"...that public indignation may be so aroused against the
practices of high finance that it shall come to be as culpable to
graft and cozen within the law as it is lawless today to
counterfeit and steal."

"...that in the minds of all who read this eventful history there
may grow up a knowledge and a conviction that the gaining of vast
wealth is not worth the sacrifice of manhood, and that poverty
and abstinence with honor are better worth having than millions
and luxury at the cost of candor and rectitude."

"My profession is business. My writing is an incident.
'Frenzied Finance' was set down during the twenty-fifth and
twenty-sixth hours of busy days. I pass it up as the history of
affairs of which I was a part."

-+- Foreword -+-

[Synopsis of *Frenzied Finance* by Thomas W. Lawson. New York:
Ridgway-Thayer, 1905]

USAGOLD
YGM
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlI don't know if you know this but our News Feed at the Daily Market Report is from the same service as the one at Bullion Desk, but better -- we additionally carry economic and financial stories from around the world of interest to our clientele

Thanks, MK
Econoclast
I hope we all get 1 month closer to our goals this week
Thoughts/responses from weekend postingsYGM:
Accept my apologies, the post that led to my response to you the other day was "Mr. Gresham's" #73911. Otherwise, that was a lot of heavy links posted this weekend.
Hipplebeck:
More than good luck, I wish you God's blessings. I believe that if you can find Jesus's path and follow it, He will provide and you will survive. Hopefully, our paths will merge.
YGM
MK...Sorry.
I had not realized News Feed was public and had thought it a paid for subscript...Was just trying to add to your wealth of info...No further duplication. I shall be a daily visitor to News Feed.....YGM
YGM
Some May Find This Site Interesting......
http://www.perfecteconomy.com/index-links.html"The cost to the good people for their indifference to their public affairs is to be ruled by evil men."

Plato



Econoclast...I may have confused you as there was naught to apologize for, just my (our) joint confusion...Thanks...
TownCrier
Last chance to order these Belgian gold francs online...
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html...soon to be replaced with a new selection.

(But never fear... as always, you can call the office directly to speak with Marie, MK, or George for ANY type of coins you'd prefer. Just ask!)

R.
YGM
Just R'cd This From GATA....
By Thom Calandra
CBS.MarketWatch.com
April 22, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- With gold playing hopscotch
around $300, some analysts expect more fireworks from the
precocious metal.

Gold's spot price Monday morning rose $2 to $304.10 an
ounce. Gold stock prices, meanwhile, seemed poised for
another leg up in their six-month rally. Gold stocks as
measured by the XAU miners' index and the Toronto Stock
Exchange's gold-share index rose more than 1.5 percent
Monday morning.

Andy Smith at Mitsui Precious Metals in London has a
forecast for gold this year at the very high end for
professional analysts: $355 an ounce. Smith says
"technical analysis suggests gold may test $290 to $292
support in the near term, then, if this holds, move onward
and upwards to $328."

Smith says fiscal turmoil and price momentum are gold's
best friends. "The momentum of international risks is
increasing," Smith says from London. That includes French
voters' move toward an extremely conservative candidate,
Jean-Marie Le Pen, who placed second in national
elections this weekend.

On the momentum angle, Smith points to U.S. gold mutual
funds, which dominated first-quarter rankings. Most
gold-only mutual funds are up more than 40 percent since
Jan. 2. Smith also sees less gold selling in the futures
market. Speculators in New York, he says, are running
net long positions of more than 100 tonnes for only the
fourth time ever.

Smith said he rests much of his bullish case on the
willingness of miners to reduce or eliminate their tricky
selling strategies, called hedging. Most major producers,
anticipating higher bullion prices, have reduced their
hedge books, a practice that floods the market with
gold as executives attempt to lock in slightly higher
prices for their mining output.

Smith says gold, which is up about 12 percent since
January, has yet to enjoy platinum's massive rally
since September. The spread between an ounce of
platinum and an ounce of gold is now $247; on Sept.
10 it was $170.

Smith takes solace in how well gold's price has stuck
above $300. Pronouncements of possible selling from
Germany's central bank and from the International
Monetary Fund have done little damage to gold's rally,
he says.

"I favor 'thinking small' as explanation' for the rally,
especially miners' abstinence from hedging, and
speculators' almost unprecedented patience on the
long side, rather than the 'big picture' stories," Smith
said Monday morning from London.

Another gold optimist, Barry Cooper at CIBC World
Markets in Toronto, has forecast an average $325
an ounce for the metal for 2003. "We may have to
change that," he said Monday morning.

Cooper, who ends his voicemail messages with
"Have a golden day," said gold prices will benefit
from many factors this year and next. Top of the list is
supply and demand. Last year was a peak year for
global gold production, he said. He estimates 2,600
new tonnes of gold came to the market in 2001, with
another 1,000 tonnes of scrap gold and about 400
tonnes of the metal sold by central banks.

"The production of the large producers will be off 3
percent to as much as 10 percent this year," says
Cooper. "There are not a heck of a lot of new mines
being developed." Cooper also sees reduced
hedging by producers as a big plus for the metal.
He counts only Placer Dome and Barrick Gold
as "active hedgers."

Investors, says Cooper, are voting with their dollars,
preferring to buy shares of the world's largest
unhedged producers, Denver's Newmont Mining
and South Africa's Gold Fields, as opposed to their
hedged counterparts.

"Investors just don't want to be stuck with a hedged
position if gold rallies strongly," he said.

Indeed, shares of unhedged producers have outpaced
by a wide margin those that hedge by forward-selling
their gold. Shares of Gold Fields, South Africa's second
largest gold miner, are up 145 percent. The company
has no hedge book. In contrast, shares of hedger Placer
Dome have risen 13 percent and Barrick Gold is up
just 16 percent.

"Hedging has got to be a dirty word," says Cooper. So
have central bank sales of the metal. Cooper predicts
the Bank of England, which recently concluded a
three-year series of gold auctions, will not announce
another auction of gold reserves. "The U.K. needs all
the gold it has (about 300 tonnes) as a precondition for
entry into the euro, if they decide to go that route," he says.

Cooper, like Smith, also sees a fading connection
between the dollar and gold. From 1996 through most of
2001, a strong dollar translated into weak gold prices.
This year, with the dollar holding most of its gains against
a global basket of currencies, gold's price is rising
steadily. "There is no longer a negative correlation between
the two, which means we don't have to see a dollar
collapse for gold to perform," he says.

Cooper's favorite gold stock is the unhedged Goldcorp.
The Canadian producer's shares are up 41 percent this
year. Most of Goldcorp's gold comes from the Red Lake
district of northwest Ontario, an area that has produced
some 16 million ounces of gold since the 1930s.
Goldcorp's average grade from its underground Red
Lake mine runs about 2 ounces per tonne vs. a worldwide
underground average of 0.25 ounces per tonne.

Cooper estimates Goldcorp will be able to pull as many
as 6 million ounces of gold from the mine. Production this
year will approach 500,000 ounces. With Goldcorp shares,
which sell for about 28 times current earnings, "you are
buying the option to participate in future gold rallies and
on their expanding their reserves through discovery," the
analyst says.

Copper says he has a sheet hanging near his desk that
shows 15 investment banks with their 2002 gold-price
forecasts. All of them, he said, were in $270 to $290 range:
Barclays at $271 an ounce, Deutsche Banc, CS First Boston,
Merrill Lynch and Salomon Smith Barney all at $280 an
ounce.

"The average was $283 an ounce, and I was the only one
with a 3 in front of their estimate," he says with a chuckle.

-END-
Boilermaker
Energy (along with gold) coming up on the financial world's radar screen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020422/financial_fund_score_2.htmlNo surprises to those on this forum. Just preaching to the goldbug choir.

snppet:

Monday April 22, 4:11 pm Eastern Time
Reuters Business
Gold, gas prices, buoy natural resources funds

By Cal Mankowski
NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - Surging natural gas prices and a
gold price that has climbed above $300 an ounce have ignited
interest in stock funds that invest in natural resources.
Natural resource funds, which may also invest in forest
products companies and other commodity stocks, were up 1.3 percent
in the four weeks ended April 18, according to fund tracker Lipper
Inc. These funds are up 12.14 percent year to date, better than any
category of diversified funds and also better than all industry
sector fund groups.
The average diversified stock fund was down 0.81 percent in the
one-month period and was just below break-even with a negative 0.17
percent return year to date.
"If you're a company involved in extracting and producing gas
you're realizing 75 percent more on your sales," said Rahim
Kassim-Lakha, manager of the U.S. Global Investors Global Resources
Fund (Nasdaq:PSPFX - news). The price has climbed to around $3.50 per million
British thermal units (mmBtu) from around $2.00 last year.

neer-do-well
hipplebeck
Best of luck
slingshot
Things are changing!
Comments Over the weekend had a friend of mine who is afraid of her husbands paper investments asked about Gold. She had some friends who went down with Enron. Hope she is lurking now.

Today while dropping some change in the Coke machine I notice the machine kept on rejecting a dime. You know how some machines are and after a couple of drops in the slot I took a look at the coin. Couldn't believe my eyes. It was a 1964 silver. Guess the weight was off and the machine would kick it out. So don't get too ticked off if your Coke machine keeps dropping the coins in the return slot. It may be Silver.

Slingshot-----------------------<>
R Powell
http://www.pimco.com/bonds_commentary_investmentoutlook_recent_index.htm
The link if I copied it correctly leads to an article by Bill Gross of Pimco. He's the guy controling one of the biggest bond rating companies around and the one who just questioned GE's bookkeeping.
He mentions this while proving he has a sense of humor but the main point, I think, is that he says long term corporate debt is being "swapped" into short term to take advantage of the extremely low short term interest rates. However, he goes on to say that this will deter the Fed. from raising rates which (if I'm reading correctly) will take away the Fed.'s ability to fight inflation. Or, fighting inflation by raising short term rates will have an immediate and negative effect on corporate profits.
Maybe this will be another piece of the POG-inflation-interest rates-dollar strength puzzle in the near future. Mr. Gross does mention that not being willing (able) to raise rates (for fear of hurting corporate debt paying ability) will make supporting a declining dollar that much harder. All things considered, maybe $600/ounce gold will appear the least damaging option. Maybe the Greenman has already forseen this impass and this is the reason for his "get out of the short side of gold derivatives" warning to the bullion bankers?
Does any of this sound plausible? Was all this discussed last week when I was sleeping in class?
I've heard that gold is a political metal. It certainly appears deeply involved in an incredibly complex puzzle. Any thoughts?
Rich
R Powell
Second try
slingshot
R Powell Msg#74075
More Pro Forma?De Minimus? Or is it, No Problem! After reading the article it shows just another shell game. The question is, Whos money is it they are playing with?
Alas poor Greenie, We knew him well. Or did we? Has he come to face pay me now or pay me later. Interest have been flat and like magma , deep in the earth, comes to the surface in a violent eruption. The money creation is just unbelievable and as long as the war on terrorism exsist it will increase at even a faster rate.

Fiat,Fiat everywhere
Our safe life savings shrink
Fiat, Fiat everywhere
For the price of paper and ink
Slingshot------------------------------<>
Black Blade
Counting Down
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/stockmarket_inflation020422.html
As Earnings Fall, Some Wonder: Has Accounting Inflated the Entire Market?

Snippit:

Two recent studies draw detailed conclusions about the effects of corporate accounting in the 1990s. The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) in London has claimed that even after plummeting earnings in 2001, U.S. corporate profits were still overstated at year's end by 27 percent, or $130 billion � and points to suspect bookeeping as a prime cause. "The figure is likely to reflect a gradual loosening of accounting discipline during the long economic upswing," states the CEBR report.

Given traditonal Price/Earnings ratios and a correction for inflated profits, that would put the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the 5,500-7,500 range, far below its perch above 10,000 in recent months.

Additionally, a March study by analyst Albert Edwards of investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein suggests that starting specifically in 1997, bookkeeping practices began to have an enormous effect on profits reported by U.S. companies. Like the CEBR study, Edwards compared the earnings public companies announced to the U.S. economy's so-called national-accounts profits � essentially, those reported on companies' tax returns. And he reached a similar conclusion. "The curious divergence between the stock market and whole economy profits � can be explained by the appetite in the U.S. for creative accounting," writes Edwards.


Black Blade: Word is getting out. The market valuations are still in the stratosphere and each day more accounting scandals come to light that suggests that the problem of valuations may be much worse than thought. I have been hammering this home for the last couple of years and the sleepers are slowing awakening.
Black Blade
WANTED: REAL EARNINGS
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmPuplava Market Wrap Up

Snippit:

If there is one thing missing from this quarter's earnings season, it is a lack of real earnings. What is reported in the financial press and what will be reported to the SEC are two entirely different sets of numbers. The analysts and anchors have been excited about the possibilities when in fact none exists. Company after company has followed each other reporting earnings that continue to beat estimates. Today, that feat has become far too easy because the benchmarks and standards have become so low. What is actually happening with corporate earnings paints an entirely different picture. Things aren't going as well as the analysts and anchors relay to the investment public. The earnings game is still played by the same predictable rules: companies beat estimates, stocks get a quick pop, and then quickly sell off. It has been that way since the first quarter of 2000. At some point, the real story becomes known and stocks head for the basement again.


Black Blade: Exactly what I have been saying. A very good srticle tonight in Puplava�a Market Wrap Up. Definitely worth reading.
RobotGuy
Slingshot - - - Funny Change
I always take a quick look at the change I receive, it doesn't take much to recognise the silver from the other stuff in the handful. Generally your silver will be slightly duller, an a little more 'yellowy' than the other change. You wouldn't believe the silver I've collected over the years. Last year alone in one store I was handed two 1954 quarters. I asked the clerk if i could make a trade for any others she might have in the till similar to the ones she gave me. It turned out she had a bit of silver in the till and didn't mind handing it over for more recent fiat. I think what happens is children find their parents or grandparents hoard and not knowing the value other than chips and sodas they scoop up a handful. It's a little off topic, but I also received a fairly crisp 1965 twenty dollar bill once.
A friend of mine did his mechanical engineering thesis on machine detection of legitimate fiat, and he informed me that most machines have a few checks they perform including an electrical resistance test to detect proper metal types.

To All - - - Check your change, the silver still shows up once in awhile, and you have nothing to lose by asking the clerk if they've got any more they'd like to trade. some poeple think it's all worth the same and are happy to oblige.

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.
Black Blade
Pro Forma Earnings Don't Tell The Truth
http://www.nypost.com/business/46051.htm
More and more companies rely on Pro Forma earnings to snow ball the investor. Unfortunately most investors don't know what Pro Forma is. The result is that the unsuspecting sheep are being led away to the shearing house and eventually off for slaughter. This dishonest and unethical tactic by US corporations continue in spite of warnings from the SEC.

- Black Blade
RobotGuy
I guess I've been spoiled too much recently.
I'm getting tired of seeing a lack of activity in POG lately in foreign markets. It's almost like they're waiting to see what happens here, then they adopt the new level and pass the buck. I guess I'm essentially responsible for similar action, as I haven't done much buying lately either.
Canuck
@ BB
Puplava is right on again.

I have a question however, when does the analyst of the analysts' opinion become apparent.

Puplava, like Roach, like Hamilton, like Butler, like Noland, like GATA, like Howe, like a dozen of our favorite antagonists, when do we get our fair hearing.

Merrill is up to its eyeballs in shit, Anderson is down the toilet, the SEC, Enron, Bush, Japan, Argentina, Venuzuala, blah, blah, blah and whoever else in over their necks, WHEN DOES JOHN DOE GET TO REAP WHAT HE HAS SOWEN FOR THE LONGEST TIME.

The energy play is a foregone conclusion, thank you for your much for play by play. I mean that as a compliment. The Wall Street pimps, whores and freaks might have me convinced of an energy crash except that my energy trust is still climbing and low and behold I am still reaping a 10.3% dividend. Golly gee, my 'guaranteed investment certificate' is locked in for 3 years at 4.75%, I wonder if oil is the place to be? I could be so heartless to say that I hope they squabble and fight in the M.E. for another 100 years but that would be meritless since oil and N.G. will be very short supply in 10 years, so it really DOESN'T MATTER IF THEY SHOOT EACH OTHER ANYWAY.

My other core investment, my 'retirement residence REIT' is 'underwater' also. It only yields 10.5 % and as I drive down the road I see old farts clutching canes and strollers
wobbling 'home'. Wonder if this is a trend?

I have a small piece of the action in guns. About two years ago, a very, very bright individual on this forum alerted me to a a ticker on the NYSE for a GUN company. Well, RGR is up handsomely. Guns , I thought, what a queer investment.

So, in the years past I grabbed a piece of G.TO, RGR.N, FN.TO, TLM.TO etc and scooped a handful of gold and a bucket of silver. I have shed paper, namely dollars and NT.TO what a shame. The energy trust PGF.UN serves me rightly.

Am I bragging, no, who would give a rat's ass. I might be so bold to compare myself to you, I don't listen to ML, Alan Greenspan, AJC or Sherry Cooper. Who the hell is Sherry Cooper?

So why do John Doe's like you and I see things so crystal clear? Why is oil and gold and tangibles (meat; I bought a third freezer last week) so clear? Why is the government pushing paper when it it so clear that it will fail?

This will end in guns and gold, when the earth reaches 9.5 billion people in 2070 who will pay, who will pay the taxes, this is not a guess this is a demographic reality. In 10 years when oil, NG and fiscal responsibility reaches its timeline WHO WILL PAY THE PIPER? ML, SACHS, BUSH, who will pay the bill?

The boy with the toys wins, guess what are the toys, boys!!!

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the next 5/10/20 years are going to be brutal. ACCUMULATE NOW, it can be sold if you are wrong, probably at a profit.

The new vision of a hedge, big time.
Black Blade
O'Reilly says world will continue to need Saudi oil
http://www.worldoil.com/news/newsstory.asp?ref=http://62.172.78.184/feeds/worldoil/new/article_e.asp?energy24=249796
Snippit:

ChevronTexaco Corp chairman and chief executive officer David O'Reilly said the world will continue to need oil from Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future despite the growing power of non-OPEC producers such as Russia. Speaking at a US-Saudi energy summit here, O'Reilly said it is "flawed thinking" to believe the Middle East will be displaced as the dominate oil region. "The world needs and will continue to need Saudi oil for a long time to come," O'Reilly stressed adding, however, that the nation needs to diversify its economy further to help encourage new investment.


Black Blade: As I have said on a number of occasions when people would make ridiculous claims that Russia will control Oil. Besides the "lifting" costs of Saudi oil is about $2.00/bbl and the "lifting" costs of Russian oil runs as high as $8.00/bbl. Saudi also is the only producer with extra production capacity. If for example some country decides to invest in another region or pursue an alternate energy, Saudi opens the spigot and drops the POO and away goes all those investment dollars. The ME owns us � pure and simple.
Black Blade
Gee Canuck � "Enjoy It While You Can"

So far the POG, POS, POO, etc. is priced quite low. These are not fashionable and politically correct investments. I hope that they remain cheap so I can accumulate more (though I am currently atop the growing "Bone Pile"). People have left hard assets long ago for the allure of fast easy money. Well, the Dot.com, Tech, and Telecom manias are over and though the investing public stand around like deer caught in the headlights, we can still accumulate PM's and ride the high yields of the energy patch while we bide our time and watch the economy crumble about us. I suspect that the time will soon be upon us (in the next few months or many even a couple of years) when we see this house of cards on Wall Street fall down. Let the financial media Trolls and Wall Street pimps tout stocks of companies with dubious balance sheets. I and presumably you and several others here at the USAGOLD forum have prepared just in case. So like I said, in the meantime, "enjoy it while you can" � and quietly accumulate Gold and Silver while cheap, get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Canuck
@ R.Powell
I read two of Gross's essays last week, the theme that caught my interest was the one of the inability of the FED to lower rates.

Apparently, in Bill's estimation was that corporate debt had shuffled its obligations so severely into the short-term nature that a reversal was non-attentive.

If short-term rates were to increase it would 'stroke' such a fire for a) corporate financing liability b) mortgage liability and c) consumer panic that it is indeed unattenable.

Thus, in his wisdom the FED is caught between a rock and a had place, no interest hike for the above (a,b,c) or 'stroke' the fires of inflation.

I financed my life and soul in November 2001 at 5.4% and presently rates have risen to 7.45%. This is in Canuckland but it may be a representative of things to come elsewhere. Our CB hero, David Dodge, just increased rates by a quarter last week and it is alleged he is not waiting for Greenspan to sh*t or get off the pot. He is concerned inflation is at the doorstep. Noranda (N.TO), is a big-time base-metal miner that has increased from $15 to $20 (33%), I wonder where he gets his inflation concern from???

Bill Gross is a cool guy, I watch his stuff very attentively, his comments of G.E. I am sure are not in general passing (Hint..hint)

Have a golden day Rich.
Black Blade
Canuck - How oil became everyone's obsession (Canadian Obsession)
http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20020422/712741.html
More regions rely on what was once Alberta's fixation

Snippit:

CALGARY - Bouncing oil and gas prices -- and the boom and bust cycles they inevitably unleash -- used to be an Alberta-only preoccupation. But with the Canadian energy industry pushing increasingly toward the frontiers, understanding the complex geopolitics of oil has become essential for provincial leaders from B.C. to Newfoundland and the Far North.


Black Blade: An interesting article on Canada's new "Black Gold Rush".
jaberou
Test on behalf of 'jaberou'
If anyone sees this, Sitemaster says, "Password works!"

R.
Pizz
R Powell - Interest rate swaps
http://home.earthlink.net/~green/whatisan.htmHere's the best link I've found on interest rate swaps. It's real complicated in parts, but you should be able to get a good idea on swaps. Your interpretations in your post appear to be correct.

If you read through the link above and start to comprehend the 40 - 50 trillion in interest rate derivitives that are out there (probably more), it'll scare you right down to your local PM store.

As I understand, when you swap long term for short term paper, the cost is less, but you assume the risk of the higher rates later and higher costs, even if rates stay the same.

When rates turn, companies like GE will have to do reverse swaps, but they will have to pay a premium to do it, and it will be an expense, but that's not current expense, and the corporations will do all most anything to keep their earnings up (as we know).

If you stop and think about all the foreign debt out there that has the ability to crash our debt markets and raise rates. . . . there's only 43 trillion or so nominal that has been "bet" on rates. Even if rates stay the same, the short term holders will pay more in the future (less earnings???). The only way they can win or stay even long term is to have short rates keep dropping - how low can they go?? Banks paying us to borrow??. Now, who's on the fixed rate side of the swaps? The banks and hedge funds? Probably.

So now the battle lines are drawn, Corporate America keeping earnings up by swapping long term debt for short term, the banks and hedge funds taking the fixed side (the smarter move, but both are dumb in this environment) the FED holding neutral and controlling the short end of the curve, and most of the rest of the world holding the linch pin debt that controls the longer term rates.

The only way I see to fix the situation is to start over, and unfortunately, it is starting to look like we might, but the trip back to square one not going to be pleasant.

The "non-existant" recovery (world wide) is the only way out, and it just ain't there. What a &$##$$ mess.

Pizz

Canuck
@ BB
I could not find any 'Negro' tonight so I have settled for a couple Canadian silly pops.

My spelling is succumbing to my typing skills so I shall retire before I 'pull a Megatron' and thrash Greenspan on my front lawn.

I have my 1979 miners hat (laden with $850 gold drillings) in my shed and I hope some day you and I can reciprocate large lies with the 'real McCoy'.

Canuck.
Canuck
@ Pizz
That's what Gross said without saying it, "what a *&$#&(^% mess"
Black Blade
Playing With Energy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18708-2002Apr20.html
Snippit:

Although there is drilling for oil and gas in 29 wildlife refuges, the most fiercely contested question about the energy bill was about drilling on one-hundredth of 1 percent of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which is described, by people more passionately devoted to preserving it than visiting it, as "pristine." Yes, and the moon's surface is pristine. Except ANWR is less so, because the moon does not have -- as ANWR's coastal plain, where the drilling would have occurred, does -- roads, military installations, an airstrip, a school, houses, stores.

ANWR could produce at least 1.3 million barrels a day for 25 years, almost what we import from Saudi Arabia. The House of Representatives voted for drilling, but it lost in the Senate, which is the habitat of Democratic presidential candidates who burnish their environmental credentials by jumping through the hoop of opposition to ANWR drilling.

Some senators said that drilling would interfere with the reproduction of caribou. However, the herds have tripled in the three decades since opponents of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline said it would interfere with the caribou's reproduction. Many caribou even cluster around the heated pipeline, perhaps just for warmth, perhaps to do things from which a gentleman would avert his gaze.


Black Blade: An "interesting" commentary from George Will. True, ANWR would be god for the US, however, it would add pressure to my personal bottom line. "A moral dilemma" � Hmmm�

Black Blade
Fuels 'crisis' looms
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,4178019%255E462,00.html
Snippit:

AUSTRALIA was entering a crisis of dwindling energy self-sufficiency and higher prices that could lead to its own version of California's electricity meltdown, the petroleum industry has warned.

Black Blade: A looming energy crisis in OZ. This could really impact the largely forward sold Aussie Gold mining industry by significantly increasing production costs.
Waverider
Black Blade
The link at the bottom of the article on how finance professionals can combat budget time stress is equally interesting! (((LOL))) Cheers!
Rockgrabber
Canuck #74083 & and Good ol Black Blade
Cheers to you both (sorry I ((charas)) Corona's). Anyhow "interesting times" to say the least. A few beers with this crowd would be a most rewarding insight. Love the company!!

You have seen Argentina. I am shocked that there are people buying gold, and then who put it in a safety deposit box in a bank. Ya, banks look out for their clients. Argentina(Side thought)? Does the word have something to do with silver?

Cheers to the future of the world. I believe it to be in good hands, when it is out of ours.
Waverider
Argentina Opposition Party May Vote Against Bank Plan
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APMSbrhZZQXJnZW50Snippit:
"Argentina's opposition Radical Party signaled it may reject a plan to stem an outflow of money from the country's banks by forcing depositors to accept long term-government bonds in exchange for their savings.

Duhalde needs opposition support to obtain the two-thirds Congressional vote required for fast approval of the proposal. Broad legislative support would help Duhalde limit the political costs of seizing deposits, reopen banks quickly, and show that his government has a broad consensus as it negotiates with the International Monetary Fund for emergency aid.

Duhalde, who has resisted spending cuts demanded by the IMF as a condition for new loans, today said Argentina was capable of rebuilding its economy without international financial aid. His remarks appeared to affirm concerns voiced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and other officials that the country isn't willing to meet tough IMF conditions.

Transener SA, which operates most of Argentina's high-tension electricity lines, today said it would default on all debt payments. The company is owned by U.K.-based National Grid Group Plc and Perez Companc SA. Earlier, Telecom Argentina Stet-France Telecom SA, the second-biggest phone company, and MetroGas SA, the largest gas distributor, said they were halting debt payments."

Waverider: Okay, we know what the Argentines should have done to avoid the economic abyss they're in, but the question now is...how do they extricate themselves? Is there hope for the Argentines?
Black Blade
PMs Flat, Oil and NatGas Soaring
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold and Silver are barely budging tonight, yet Oil is up at $26.52/bbl and NatGas is rocking at $3.65 Mbtu. Petroleum prices are higher on the ANWR drilling proposal defeat and on the certainty of an Iraqi invasion by year-end and the continuing Israeli invasion.

It has also come to light and has outraged many worldwide that Israeli troops apparently massacred many unarmed Palestinian civilians in the West Bank refugee camp - Jenin, in spite of Sharon's assurances that all Palestinians are terrorists. There are concerns that some OPEC producers are not at all very happy all while Saddam Hussein pleads for oil producers to cut production by half as "punishment".

Meanwhile French elections have resulted in a runoff with a far-right candidate (le Pen). Protests are raging in France. Also there is a growing concern of a severe petroleum crisis in Australia and that more imports will draw off supply from other oil consuming nations.

We live in "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade
TownCrier
Distinctions: men versus metal
http://www.thewest.com.au/20020423/business/tw-business-home-sto53771.htmlMining stock might serves a speculative investment purpose, but the fact that the product being mined happens to be gold in no way engenders an armslength participation in company ownership as a substitute for the reliability and financial insurance availed by having the free and clear metal in your portfolio. Just ask an Argentine stock investor who discovered today that the whole damn stock market has been shut down. Here's a Reuters brief on that:

------SANTIAGO, Chile, April 22 (Reuters) - Chile's peso slid on Monday on market uncertainty following an indefinite suspension of financial markets in neighboring Argentina, traders said.
+
Argentina's Central Bank implemented on Monday the closure of the foreign exchange and stock markets after a massive run on deposits on Friday threatened to collapse the financial system.------end-----


And beyond government intervention, here's a good example where vagaries of corporate operations manage to deliver LESS than what was expected:


---see URL above---(PORT MORESBY) -- Lihir Gold Ltd said today it had deferred the consideration of dividend payment at the request of the company's second-largest shareholder, the Lihirian community.

Shareholder Paul McLaren, managing director of Capital Stockbrokers, told the meeting that investors were very concerned by the decision.

Mr McLaren said it was unfair to other shareholders who had bought stock expecting dividend payments.

[Additionally, a] report by Australian journalist Greg Roberts said Lihir's operations were devastating local communities and their fishing industry.

Lihir said the report had contributed to the plunge in Lihir's share price when the world's biggest gold miner Newmont Mining sold its stake in Lihir on April 3.
------(click URL for full article)-------


As we continue to stress here -- with good reason -- only GOLD METAL IN HAND can convey all the financial benefits and securities that have historically been associated with gold ownership. Anything else (i.e., stocks, derivatives) is just pretending -- until events prove their inferiority.

R.
Black Blade
Enron fears $14b write-down of assets
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=7690718

Snippit:

HOUSTON: Enron said up to $24 billion in assets and derivative values could be erased from its books, potentially shaving 38 per cent off the total assets. The Houston-based firm said the $14 billion in potential asset write-downs may have resulted from "possible accounting errors or irregularities" that overstated their value, pointing a clear finger at former auditor Andersen and prior management.


Black Blade: More phony Baloney accounting at the hands of Arthur Andersen. That's at least $14 Billion gone to "Money Heaven" � vanished never ever to be seen again. I wonder how many other companies are out there with similar problems.
Black Blade
Japan's gold demand jumps sixfold
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,2276,42685,00.html?
Japan's gold demand jumps sixfold

Snippit:

JAPAN'S gold demand surged sixfold in March as investors bought the precious metal as a safe haven before the government imposed limits on insuring time deposits in the nation's debt-laden banks. Gold imports jumped to 13.2 tonnes last month, a gain of 569% from March 2001, the ministry of finance said on its website, without giving the amount of gold imported in March last year. The value of gold imported in March surged eightfold to 16.3 billion yen (S$228 million).


Black Blade: Still going strong and should even accelerate going into next April Fools Day Surprise when insolvent Japanese banks no longer insure savings deposits.
Black Blade
Gold well supported by Mideast tension, Argentina
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news≠ws_id=reu-l22343555&feed=reu&date=20020422&cat=USMARKET

Snippit:

LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Gold prices held firm on Monday against a background of Middle East tension and investor uncertainty triggered by Argentina's banking crisis and the political fallout from France's presidential election. "With no shortage of political activity around -- the Middle East, French elections, Venezuela, Argentina -- any one of the elements has the potential to influence gold, either directly or via currencies," said John Reade, analyst at UBS Warburg.


Black Blade: It appears that Argentina's current government may fall. The IMF is making unreasonable demands of the government and rather than give in, the country's leaders may simply resign leading to even more unrest (possibly a popular revolution).
Black Blade
Gold panners deprive fiscus of millions
http://www.africaonline.co.zw/mirror/stage/archive/020422/business22880.html
Snippit:

ZIMBABWE�S mining sector, which generates half of the country foreign currency earnings and contributes 6 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP), has been riddled by an influx of informal miners depriving the country of millions of dollars. Driven by the harsh economic climate and near starvation due to the current drought, a ruthless class of informal miners has emerged countrywide. Specialising in the gold and emerald trade, the new breed of panners has invaded the Great Dyke region's alluvial gold rich rivers.

The Business Mirror has established that the gold panners do not operate within the confines of the Gold Trade Act and are scattered in various locations with no authority monitoring them. Since the minerals are sold on the black market, it is almost impossible to police the gains from the panners. Reports say that 1 g of gold fetches between $2000-$4000 for the illegal miners. In a move to legalise small-scale mining activities in the country, the government has encouraged the formation of co-operatives so that they can channel their panning proceeds to the RBZ. However, most informal miners have snubbed the initiative because the RBZ pays lower rates than the black market. Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Simba Makoni, last month announced policy measures to curb losses in gold through shady exports.



Black Blade: Ah yes, barbarous relics. When the local currency is trash, then the people migrate to real money �.. errr, barbarous relics. ;-)
Knallgold
Gold arbitrage
Ah yes,flying with 5 kilobars over to Shanghai...

Hong Kong (Platts)--23Apr2002

The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society in Hong Kong has debuted trading 99.99% purity gold kilobars, a source from the Exchange said Tuesday. "The new trading service started last Friday (Apr 19) and the minumum trading lot is 5 kilograms for one full settlement," the source said.

"The commencement of the 99.99% purity gold trading is in response to the growing demand in Asian markets, as people from countries like China and Japan mostly trade 99.99% purity gold," he said, adding that the exchange aimed to look for hedging and arbitrage windows with the yet-to-be-opened Shanghai Gold Exchange. "We aim to devise the new product, which can be used in the Chinese market. We will see if there would be arbitrage opportunities between the two Exchanges later on," he said.

The official refused to comment on what the market response has been so far as "we've only started the gold kilobar trading for a few days". The source added that the Exchange has granted five gold refiners, who are also members of the exchange, the rights to supply gold kilobars for trading purposes. The members are Hing Fung Goldsmith & Refinery, Johnson Matthey Hong Kong, King Fook Gold & Jewellery, Po Sang Financial Investment Services and Wing Fung Gold & Jewellery Wholesale.

"This is the first five gold refiners we authorise to supply the gold kilobars and we have plans to increase the number of suppliers later on," the source said. Gold refiners can now apply to the Exchange to become a recognised refiner to supply gold kilobars for trading.



Knallgold
The link...
Black Blade
Citigroup, Other Banks' Argentine Losses Rise
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APMUQRBNIQ2l0aWdy
Snippit:

New York, April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and six other international banks have lost $8.5 billion in Argentina, 60 percent more than what the banks reported in January, an analysis of first-quarter earnings showed. With $23.6 billion of Argentine loans on their books at yearend, the banks face more losses in the months ahead from the government's peso devaluation and debt default, analysts and investors said.


Black Blade: It looks ugly for banks these days. JP Morgan is rumored to have lost several billions of dollars as well. Telecoms looks ugly as well. Williams Communications is has just filed Chapter 11. There is a rumor that Qwest Communications is in serious trouble as well. Could get rather interesting on Wall Street today.
Black Blade
Massive telecom shortfalls, cuts loom
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/113/business/Massive_telecom_shortfalls_cuts_loom+.shtml
News trips markets, suggests the industry still locked in crisis

Snippit:

The latest in a stream of bad news from the shattered telecommunications sector helped drag down major US stock markets yesterday, with WorldCom shares dropping by a third to a nearly all-time low after it warned of a billion-dollar shortfall in projected cash flow this year.

Black Blade: It looks like a bad start today for Telecom shares. It has come to light last week that ATT (That's right � Ma Bell) shares will do a 10-1 reverse split in order to remain above $5.00/share and marginable � also to remain in major mutual and hedge funds. Even Euro telecoms are in deep doo-doo. Apparently Duetcshe Telecom is having some difficulties as well. Oh yeah, Lucent will whack off another 6,000 nonessential "Bones" and place them on the growing "Bone Pile".
nickel62
More of the same from the boys who own us...
Fri Apr 19 07:47:49 2002 Pacific Time

International Monetary Fund Gold Should Fund More Debt Relief for Poorest Countries
WASHINGTON, April 19 (AScribe Newswire) -- The international community should sharply increase debt relief for the world's poor countries to help alleviate global poverty and launch a new "aid architecture." The additional debt reduction should be financed by mobilization of more of the IMF's undervalued gold as well as increased foreign aid. This new plan is presented in "Delivering on Debt Relief: From IMF Gold to a New Aid Architecture" by Nancy Birdsall, president of the Center for Global Development, and John Williamson, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, with the assistance of Brian Deese, a researcher at the Center. The new study is being released on the eve of this spring's IMF/World Bank meetings and just as a bipartisan congressional coalition is introducing the first major debt relief legislation in three years.

The proposed new plan would have three main features:

- Limiting annual debt payments of all poor countries to 2 percent of their GDP;

- Extending eligibility for debt relief to all poor countries, including larger ones such as Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan; and

- Creating a contingency fund to protect these countries against external shocks that would undermine the debt relief programs and throw their development off course.

To pay for these proposals, the authors recommend mobilizing a further portion of the IMF's gold stock of about $20 billion, mainly to fund relief of debt to the IMF itself. They also call for stepped-up debt relief contributions from the United States and other industrialized countries.

"Delivering on Debt Relief: From IMF Gold to a New Aid Architecture" proposes deepening and expanding the scope of present debt relief and offers a strategy for financing those steps that could cost as much as $80 billion over 10 years. It also describes how an invigorated debt reduction effort could help build a new economic aid "architecture," characterized by increased efficiency and increased accountability of both aid recipients and aid donors.

The book provides an independent assessment of the present debt reduction plan, the "enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative," which was launched three years ago following a global lobbying campaign by an international coalition of faith-based groups and other nongovernmental organizations. It traces several ways in which debt reduction may be more efficient than increased aid disbursements in supporting the growth of poor countries-debt reduction enables countries to better "own" their own development programs; it reduces the transaction costs of supplying aid; it offers budget support which is often more valuable than new projects; it limits donor tying of aid; and it encourages private investment. But the authors also point to the danger of diverting resources from countries that might make better use of the funds to those that have built up large debts in the past. Their proposals seek to minimize this danger.

The release today of the Birdsall-Williamson study coincides with the introduction of the first major piece of legislation on developing-country debt since Congress approved a large US contribution to international debt relief three years ago. The bill introduced today--"The Debt Relief Enhancement Act of 2002"-- was sponsored by a bipartisan and bicameral team of legislators including Senators Joseph Biden (D-DE) and Rick Santorum (R-PA), and Representatives Chris Smith (R-NJ) and John LaFalce (D-NY).

"Delivering on Debt Relief provides a bold plan that deserves the attention of policymakers worldwide," noted Congressman John LaFalce, top Democrat on the US House Financial Services Committee.

The Birdsall-Williamson book is the first major publication of the Center for Global Development, a development policy research institute launched in late 2001. The Center is closely allied with the Institute for International Economics with which it conducts collaborative projects, such as the current study, and makes joint staff appointments.

About the Authors

Nancy Birdsall is president of the Center for Global Development. She was formerly with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and director of the Economic Reform Project there. She was the executive vice president of the Inter-American Development Bank (1993-98) and before that director of the Policy Research Department at the World Bank. She is the author of numerous publications on labor markets, human resources, economic inequality, the relationship between income distribution and growth, and other development issues. She serves on various boards, including the Population Council, and is special adviser to the administrator of the United Nations Development Program.

John Williamson, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics since 1981, was on leave as chief economist for South Asia at the World Bank during 1996-99. He was a professor of economics at Pontifica Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (1978-81), University of Warwick (1970-77), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1967, 1980), University of York (1963-68), and Princeton University (1962-63); adviser to the International Monetary Fund (1972-74); and economic consultant to the UK Treasury (1968-70). He is author or editor of numerous studies on international monetary and developing world debt issues, including Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option (2000), The Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime (1996), What Role for Currency Boards? (1995), and The Political Economy of Policy Reform (1993).

Brian Deese is a research assistant at the Center for Global Development. He was previously a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

About the Center

The Center for Global Development is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution dedicated to reducing global poverty and inequality through policy-oriented research and active engagement on development issues with the policy community and the public. A principal focus of the Center's work is policies of the United States and other industrialized countries that affect development prospects in poor countries, and of the international institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF that are so central to the world's development architecture. The Center's Board of Directors includes distinguished leaders of nongovernmental organizations, former officials, business executives, and some of the world's leading scholars of development. The Center also receives advice from an Advisory Committee that comprises respected development specialists and activists. The Board of Directors bears overall responsibility for the Center's programs. The Center's President, Nancy Birdsall, works with the Board, the Advisory Committee, and its own senior staff in setting research and program priorities, and approves all formal publications. The Center is supported by an initial significant financial contribution from Edward W. Scott, Jr., and by funding from philanthropic foundations and other organizations.

About the Institute

The Institute for International Economics, whose Director is C. Fred Bergsten, is the only major research center in the United States that is devoted to global economic policy issues. Its staff of about 50 focus on macroeconomic topics, international money and finance, trade and related social issues, and international investment, and cover all key regions-especially Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The Institute averages one or more publications per month; holds one or more meetings, seminars, or conferences almost every week; and is widely tapped over its popular Web site (http://www.iie.com). In 2001, it celebrated its twentieth anniversary and moved into its new headquarters at 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW. The Institute has recently helped create the Center for Global Development, an independent but closely affiliated institution that will address poverty issues in the developing countries and policies toward them in the United States and other industrial nations.

Delivering on Debt Relief: From IMF Gold to a New Aid Architecture Nancy Birdsall and John Williamson, with Brian Deese April 2002. 192 pp. $25.00 ISBN: paper 088132-331-4

Waverider
Argentina May Open Banks Friday; Fills Cash Machines
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Business&T=sa_content.ht&s=APMVYEBVhQXJnZW50Snippit:
"Argentina's central bank said an indefinite bank closure ordered last week after a run on deposits would end Friday.

The central bank also agreed with banks to replenish some of the country's cash machines that were depleted over the weekend, said Banco Credicoop Ltd. president Carlos Heller in a televised interview. Depositors will be limited to a one-time withdrawal of 200 pesos ($64), he said.

Courts continued to enforce injunctions yesterday. A client of state-owned Banco de la Provincia de Buenos Aires withdrew $160,000 from a branch after court officials forced their way into the vault with a locksmith and blowtorch, Clarin newspaper reported."

Waverider: Hollywood couldn't come up with this if they tried. Gold and Silver in possession!
nickel62
Just in case you thought Arthrur Anderson was the only criminal orgainzation in the accounting field...The best take on this is a new billboard just outside my town that has a picture of DEWARS SCOTCH turned upside down and the caption underneath says.."DISAPPEARS FASTER THAN A BIG FIVE ACCOUNTING FIRM"
04/23 02:46
Auditors Failed to Warn in More Than Half of Big Bankruptcies
By David Dietz


New York, April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Ernst & Young LLP didn't find much good news as it audited Loehmann's Inc., a clothing retailer based in the Bronx, New York, in March 1999.

The company had gone through two years of losses and three years of rising debt totaling $139.4 million. It was down to $1.3 million in cash at the end of the fiscal year, with a $5.5 million loan payment due May 17, 1999. The company's lender, United States Trust Co. of New York, had restricted new borrowing and asset sales.

Then came the inevitable: Loehmann's missed the loan payment and, on May 18, announced it was seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Ernst & Young never cautioned investors, creditors and suppliers about any risks. Just 18 days before the Chapter 11 announcement, on April 30, Loehmann's had released its annual report, including the auditor's letter certifying the financial statement.

Auditing standards say accountants should disclose the risk of a company's failure within 12 months; Ernst & Young's audit opinion raised no concerns.

Ernst & Young's performance in this case isn't unusual. In 54 percent of the 673 largest bankruptcies of public corporations since 1996, auditors provided no cautions in annual financial statements in the months before bankruptcy, according to a study by Bloomberg News.

High Debt Levels

Major accounting firms routinely certify books with audit opinions that don't inform investors of risks, the 673 cases show. Many of the companies involved were, like Loehmann's, suffering from high levels of debt, eroding sales and declining profit margins.

One company given a clean audit -- Chicago-based business software developer System Software Associates Inc. -- was under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for alleged accounting fraud.

Shareholders lost $119.8 billion in the 10 largest bankruptcies following audit opinions that had raised no concerns, and many investors say they're fed up with the entire auditing system.

``Common sense tells you something is rotten,'' says Ann Yerger, research director of the Council of Institutional Investors, which represents 120 pension funds with more than $1 trillion in assets.

Anger at Andersen

Investors have focused much of their ire on Arthur Andersen LLP, which is under indictment for its destruction of records prior to the Enron Corp. bankruptcy. Yet Andersen raised concerns in audits before bankruptcies more often than any of its competitors among the five largest accounting firms.

``The system is doing everyone a disservice,'' says Thomas Herndon, executive director of the Florida Board of Administration, which oversees $96 billion in state employee pension funds. ``It's contrary to the whole purpose of being an auditor. It seems they've forgotten what they were created to do.''

Auditors raise concerns far less often with large companies than with small ones, the Bloomberg study shows. The 50 largest companies that filed for bankruptcy protection received an auditor's caution letter 24 percent of the time.

Caution Letters

By comparison, auditors gave caution letters to 70 percent of the 50 smallest companies. Larger firms pay higher fees for auditing and other services such as consulting and tax work.

Companies such as Owens Corning, Finova Group Inc., Bethlehem Steel Corp., Trans World Airlines Inc. and ANC Rental Corp., which owns National Car Rental System Inc. and Alamo Rent A Car, received audit opinions that raised no concerns before the companies filed for bankruptcy protection.

``What that tells me is that auditors are timid and are afraid to do something that would cause loss of the client,'' says Roderick M. Hills, former chairman of the SEC, now retired. ``The tools of the accounting profession today are too limited. And chief executives don't want any quality advice from auditors.''

Larger companies have more ways to stay afloat, such as tapping the credit markets, and auditors may fear their accounting firms could be fired for expressing concerns in audit opinions, says Andrew Bailey, a former SEC accountant who's a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign.

Large Fee Effect

``It's a reasonable hypothesis that a partner on a job with large fees may not be able to remain unbiased,'' he says.

Five of the seven largest bankruptcies ever -- including Enron, Global Crossing Ltd. and Kmart Corp. -- followed annual reports with clean audit opinions.

A clean opinion tells investors that auditors raised no questions about that financial statement. When auditors conclude that a company may fail in the next year, they must issue a so-called going-concern opinion, according to industry standards.

The only opinion an auditor issues in an annual report is a boilerplate one-page letter saying whether a company presented its finances fairly and in accordance with accounting and auditing standards.

`Not a Meaningful Document'

``The audit opinion is not a terribly meaningful document,'' says Richard Breeden, former chairman of the SEC and now chief executive of Cendant Corp.'s Equivest Finance Inc., a resort developer. ``Enforcement regulations are like toothless tigers; actually, they're more like toothless poodles.''

Auditors should disclose more information about companies, according to professors, accountants, lawyers and former SEC officials. Auditors must use plain language to explain the risks companies face rather than issue only a clean opinion or a going-concern opinion, they say.

Even accountants say they're failing the public. ``This system is bad for everyone,'' says Joseph Berardino, who resigned in March as chief executive of Arthur Andersen, the fifth-largest accounting firm in the U.S. ``It is bad for investors most of all.''

Proposed Reforms

Proposed reforms don't go far enough to resolve decades- old problems, say many experts. Auditors too often give clean opinions even when a company has made admissions in the management discussion and analysis section of the annual report, known as a 10-K, which gets filed with the SEC.

``All we've heard are the same old weak proposals for more oversight of a failing system,'' says Abraham Briloff, a professor emeritus of Bernard Baruch College in Manhattan. ``If we don't get substantial changes in what auditors are asked to do, then let's get rid of them altogether and let management produce its own statement -- which is in good measure what we've got now.''

Ninety-seven percent of all publicly traded U.S. companies are audited by the five largest U.S. accounting firms: Arthur Andersen, Deloitte & Touche LLP, Ernst & Young, KPMG LLP and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. The accounting firms reported revenue of $65.6 billion in 2001.

An SEC analysis shows that 31 percent of the firms' revenue came from auditing in 1999, with the rest coming from other services such as consulting and tax work.

Public Confidence

No laws say what should be in an audit opinion. Audits were originally required by Congress in an effort to restore public confidence in financial reporting following the 1929 stock market crash. The SEC decided in 1934 that auditors should follow standards written by industry-sponsored accounting organizations, not by the government.

The SEC says staff size prevents it from looking at about 90 percent of all of the financial statements filed. That means investors rely on accounting firms as the only experts to certify companies' financial statements.

Auditing standards are set by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, or AICPA, which in 1989 introduced the guideline known as SAS 59, telling auditors to issue a going-concern opinion when they conclude a company may fail within 12 months.

`Professional Skepticism'

Auditors must use ``professional skepticism'' in examining transactions, inventories and invoices on a test basis to support the company's financial reporting.

The most controversial parts of the process often are the discussions auditors have with the audit committee of a company's board, experts say. They discuss risk assessment and other issues affecting future performance, which can bring the greatest pressure on auditors to issue clean opinions.

``There's a process of negotiation with management,'' says John Collard, chairman of Strategic Management Partners, a management consultant firm in Annapolis, Maryland. ``It may be in that process that management convinces the auditor that what should be a real concern to the stockholders wasn't really as bad as the auditor thought it was.''

Auditors say bankruptcies develop over time, so they review two or three years of performance, looking for such patterns as falling profits, increasing debt, declining cash supply, uncollected bills and violations of loan terms.

Bleak Indicators

When financial indicators are bleak, management suggests plans -- such as closing plants, firing workers or selling or renegotiating loans. Auditors must examine the legitimacy of such plans.

``There's always pressure from management not to issue those going concerns,'' says Daniel Goldwasser, a Manhattan lawyer who advises 125 accounting firms. ``No public company wants to get a going-concern letter. It's like Hester having a red A around her neck.''

The AICPA cautions against blaming auditors for not forecasting bankruptcies. ``It's unfair to say an auditor has a crystal ball,'' says Chuck Landes, AICPA director of auditing standards. ``There are conditions that make it very difficult for an auditor to assess a company's ability to continue as a going concern.''

Some of the companies that declared bankruptcy soon after a clean audit had been in disarray.

Under a Cloud

Such was the case with System Software Associates. It entered 2000 under a cloud. The company had faced a class- action lawsuit by shareholders and an SEC investigation following its report in 1997 that it had inflated earnings by $30 million.

The SEC had tentatively concluded the company had improperly booked revenue from 1994 to 1997. System Software shares closed at $2.47 on the day of the audit opinion -- a 64 percent fall from their 1999 high of $6.88.

The auditor, KPMG, had even more reason to be cautious: System Software had agreed in 1997 to a $3.2 million settlement of a shareholder lawsuit, and the company's previous auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, had been sued by shareholders who said the firm had issued false and misleading audit opinions.

In its 2000 annual report, System Software disclosed the SEC investigation and reported two years of losses and a net worth of negative $73.6 million. KPMG issued a clean audit opinion in January 2000. System Software filed for bankruptcy protection three months later.

`Deep, Pervasive Problems'

``This company clearly had deep, pervasive operational problems and liabilities as well as problems with the SEC,'' says Charles Drott, a former partner at Touche Ross -- Deloitte & Touche's predecessor company -- and a plaintiff's expert witness in the PricewaterhouseCoopers litigation. ``At the time of this 10-K, in the absence of other significant information, a going concern should have been issued.''

Gores Technology Group, which brought System Software out of bankruptcy on April 5, 2000, declined comment.

``We think what we did was appropriate,'' says George Ledwith, a KPMG spokesman. ``An auditor's consideration of a company's ability to continue is a matter of professional judgment.''

In July 2000, six months after KPMG's clean opinion, the SEC sued System Software and the company's former chairman and chief financial officer for allegedly fraudulent accounting practices. The commission said the company had improperly booked $110 million in revenue.

Consent Judgment

The company later signed a consent judgment, neither admitting nor denying the allegations and promising to avoid future fraudulent statements. The two officers are scheduled for a civil trial with the SEC in 2004.

System Software faces a federal trial in June on class- action allegations by shareholders. In December, a U.S. judge approved a settlement in which PricewaterhouseCoopers agreed to pay shareholders $14 million while neither admitting nor denying the allegations.

The SEC says shareholders lost $1.4 billion before the bankruptcy.

In some cases, companies that have expanded too rapidly to control expenses and debt still receive clean audit opinions.

Case History

Tokheim Corp. became the world's largest maker of gasoline pumps with its 1996 acquisition of Sofitam SA's petroleum dispenser business for $107 million and its 1998 purchase of Schlumberger Ltd.'s Retail Petroleum Systems fuel dispenser unit for $330 million.

Demand for gasoline pumps weakened in 1998 and 1999 as oil prices dropped and companies cut their spending on service station equipment. Tokheim shares plunged 76 percent in seven months during 1999 to $3.06 from a high of $12.50.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, which already had a junk-status rating of CCC+ on Tokheim's subordinated debt in 1999, dropped the company's rating to CCC in January 2000. ``The outlook is negative,'' said the S&P report. ``The downgrade reflects Tokheim's weaker-than-expected operating results and strained liquidity.''

In its February 2000 annual statement, Tokheim reported $36.5 million in losses on sales of $693.9 million in fiscal 1999, the second consecutive year of losses.

The company, based in Fort Wayne, Indiana, reported more liabilities than assets, with stockholder equity of negative $22.8 million and debt of $478.6 million.

`Clear Patterns'

``Clear patterns and trends over three years tell you that absent substantial information not in the 10-K, there should have been a going concern for this company,'' says Drott.

PricewaterhouseCoopers raised no concerns in a clean audit opinion on Feb. 22, 2000. Six months later, Tokheim filed for bankruptcy protection.

Douglas K. Pinner, Tokheim's former chairman and chief executive, says auditors didn't suggest they would issue a going concern.

``There were no serious discussions about going concerns,'' he says. ``It wasn't patently clear at the beginning of 2000 how fast the sales were dropping.''

PricewaterhouseCoopers spokesman Steven Silber declined comment, saying the company doesn't discuss client audits.

Blowing the Whistle

Even when companies advertise their troubles, auditors sometimes balk at blowing the whistle. Amresco Inc., a lender to home owners and small businesses, said it had reported losses of $69 million as early as 1998, in part because investors had shied away from its asset-backed securities.

The company had closed its home equity loan unit and said it couldn't find a buyer for its residential mortgage business. In annual reports, it cited turmoil in capital markets, which had been caused by Russia's debt default and losses at funds such as Long-Term Capital Management LP that drove investors to safer U.S. Treasury bonds.

Amresco shares plummeted more than 75 percent to less than $9 by the end of 1998 from a high of about $39 in April 1998.

In its March 2000 annual report, Amresco listed losses for three consecutive years and said loan delinquencies had increased. Revenue had fallen 57 percent over two years to $170 million from $397 million. The company's debt was three times its net worth.

No Questions

The company's auditor, Deloitte & Touche, raised no questions in that financial statement, giving Dallas-based Amresco a clean opinion on March 2, 2001. Amresco filed for bankruptcy protection four months later.

``This is about as bad as it gets,'' says Philip Frohlich, manager of Prescott Group Capital Management LLC, which lost about $3 million on its Amresco shares. Prescott and Frohlich himself owned about 14 percent of Amresco, or as many as 1.26 million shares, at the time of the Chapter 11 filing. ``The thing that's most outrageous is that Deloitte & Touche put out an unqualified opinion, with no disclosure of any problems they had on the balance sheet. We basically got snookered.''

Randy Brown, former chief executive of Amresco, defends the company's financial reporting. ``Management made some pretty explicit disclosures in the annual report,'' he says. ``To my knowledge, there were absolutely no issues as it pertains to auditing. I'm not sure what red flags they would have raised.''

Deloitte & Touche declined comment, citing client confidentiality.

Warning Signs

Accountants say signs of pending failure can usually be spotted 12 months in advance. Drott says it's incomprehensible that Loehmann's filed for Chapter 11 protection just 18 days after releasing its annual report that contained a clean audit opinion.

``A few months of bad sales don't make a bankruptcy,'' he says. ``Companies don't go through a demise that quickly.''

Even though Loehmann's annual earnings showed a second year of losses and growing debt, Chairman and CEO Robert Friedman was optimistic. ``We are pleased with the progress we have made to improve customer traffic in our stores,'' he said.

Different View

Paine Webber Group Inc. and Wheat First Union equities analysts had a different view. They cautioned then that the company, which sold clothes from such designers as Vittadini and Ungaro at discount, had underestimated the trend toward casual wear and was getting outflanked by larger competitors.

Ernst & Young gave Loehmann's a clean audit opinion on March 10, 1999. On March 26, Standard & Poor's downgraded Loehmann's senior debt rating to B- from B. On March 31, Egan-Jones Rating Co. dropped the company's status to junk at CCC, the second rating drop it had issued for Loehmann's in two months.

``Loehmann's is living dangerously,'' wrote Egan-Jones.

Loehmann's stock price, which hit an all-time high of $30.25 in November 1996, fell 75 percent in 1997 to $5.75, from $23. In fiscal 1999, shares fell an additional 68 percent.

The company filed for bankruptcy protection on May 18, 1999. The company, which had operated 69 stores in 22 states before bankruptcy, now has 44 stores in 17 states.

Following the Rules

Friedman says his company and the auditor followed all of the rules. ``Everything that needed to be shared with Ernst & Young would have been shared with them,'' Friedman says.

Ernst & Young, through a company spokesman, declined comment because of client confidentiality.

Eliminating simple pass-or-fail opinions by auditors might improve financial reporting, experts say. Companies and auditors should tell investors in clear English about financial risks companies face, they say.

``Financial statements are not being prepared for what I would define as the average investor,'' says Raymond Bromark, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers. ``They're too complicated. We've got to change the mind-set of the companies, the auditors and the users.''

Good Housekeeping Seal

J. Michael Cook, former chairman and chief executive of Deloitte & Touche, agrees. ``Auditors' opinions are like Good Housekeeping seals that look the same for everyone,'' he says. ``We need to find a way so that financial statements tell a lot more beyond the fact that the numbers look OK.''

States should consider making it a crime for company accountants to lie to an auditor, says Allen Fetterman, chairman of the audit committee of the New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants.

``If the company accountants face criminal liability, they might be less inclined to misstate financial statements,'' Fetterman says.

Company managers and audit committees should be held accountable if they lie to auditors, says Manhattan bankruptcy attorney Richard Tilton. He adds that the SEC should require sworn affidavits to ensure that executives tell the truth about company finances.

``The SEC should make management attest to the effectiveness of their internal controls, and the auditors should examine that statement,'' says James S. Gerson, a PricewaterhouseCoopers partner and chairman of the auditing standards board at the AICPA. ``The idea has been around for a long time, but corporate America opposed it.''

Confidential Discussions

Discussions between management and auditors remain confidential under current rules and aren't mentioned in financial statements. Some of the most meaningful information for investors comes from those talks and should be made public in financial statements, says Dan Guy, who helped write many of the AICPA's auditing standards and who's now a consultant to KPMG.

``The audit report is the tip of the iceberg,'' Guy says. ``There's a lot more in the iceberg you don't see that is required to be communicated to an audit committee. Maybe the time has come when some of that information should be included in an auditor's report.''

In the end, investors may help force changes in the system through the courts. Andersen's handling of Enron's bankruptcy has spawned a welter of lawsuits, and irate shareholders are seeking legal relief in other such cases as well.

Sued by Shareholders

Deloitte & Touche, for example, has been sued by shareholders of Heilig-Meyers Co., which two years ago was the largest U.S. retailer of home furniture, operating 872 stores in 30 states.

In its June 2000 annual report, Heilig-Meyers reported a third straight year of red ink, including a $56.8 million loss in 1999 on revenue of $2.29 billion. The company, based in Richmond, Virginia, said sales had fallen 16 percent and cash reserves had dropped by 78 percent. Heilig-Meyers had renegotiated some loans to avoid default and was selling businesses to raise cash.

None of those difficulties stopped Deloitte & Touche from giving the company a clean opinion on March 22, 2000. Heilig-Meyers filed for bankruptcy protection on Aug. 16.

Seven shareholders sued the auditor. ``Deloitte knew or should have known, based on its review of the results of operations that bankruptcy was inevitable,'' said their lawsuit. ``Deloitte was paid substantial sums for its clean audit.''

Deloitte & Touche denied the allegations, saying the firm's auditors didn't know Heilig-Meyers would file for bankruptcy, which Deloitte said was triggered by financial decisions that took place after the audit.

The case is pending.

Cavan Man
@nickel62 & @USAGOLD
RE: IMF GoldWhile I personally doubt sales will ever take place due to the increaasingly unstable monetary architecture in the world and the realization that gold in hand is everyone's ballast, I would like to know what the process is to approve IMF sales. Does anyone recall the mechanic of potential sales?
CoBra(too)
Recessions and Perceptions?
There are few minds out there, who really state the big picture. One of theese is Bill Bonner and his associates on the Daily Reckoning (-Plus I like their style), so please excuse me to put up anothet snippet:

Any self-respecting recession would have at least knocked stocks down to at least 15 times earnings. A good recession would have decked them to 10 times earnings. But this puny excuse for recession has left the S&P, currently, at 45 times earnings.

How long can the consumer keep it up, we wonder? We notice his knees getting a little weak - under the weight of debt. And his main asset, his house, may not remain the source of his energy for very much longer.

"Housing Prices on Shaky Ground," says a headline from San Diego. "Small down payments and cash-out refinancing have left many homeowners heavily in debt," says the accompanying article.

"We go through these cycles," says a San Diego-based economist, "they can't continue for ever."


Seems to say it all. And so has our host, MK in his latest essay about CB's selling gold.

I've wondered and said it all along, any sales of CB Gold are neutral in terms of physical equation ... well, not so in terms of perception. Though perception is changing rapidly and even J6P is starting to feel a leetle beet uneasy!

Now, why is that? Credit is in abundance - says Fannie and Freddie Mac - both GSE's - have doubled and tripled their mortgage credits at the very height of a housing bubble - leaving maxxed out consumers to the historical fate of another S&L like debacle.

Bubbles here we come - see Argentina - cb2

Gandalf the White
******* Argentinean "Tears" ******** FIVE CONTEST WINNERS !!
"What can we learn from the "tears" of the Argentines ?"After a lot of study and deep thought, FINALLY, the WINNERS have been chosen!!! This message just arrived from the Castle. Sir MK says,
--
"Gandalf, thanks for going to all this trouble. I really appreciate it. It just so happens that I thought the Brett Woods essay to be exceptional the first time I read it. Everyone likes a story and Brett Woods tells a good one. Nothing could be more timely for current and potential gold owners than to gain an understanding of Argentinean Tears. It could provide the critical edge. Most of us do not have an idea what it's like to separated from our assets -- as Randy pointed out last night, even to the extent that the
Argentinean investor cannnot sell a stock he or she owns -- gold stock or otherwise. Gold in the hand is the lesson in mind when you think about Argentina. Our winners touched upon that sentiment in grand fashion. The gold
Argentino to Brett Woods; silver to the other four -- Farfel, Econoclast, Pizz and Black Blade. Please ask them to contact Jill with their current shipping
information. Thanks for the good work, Gandalf. You are truly the Castle Contest Master." MK

P.S. You can reprint the above in full inlcuding the last about you being Castle Contest Master. Good work. Jill should be getting out the contest prizes either today or Thursday (the two days she's in the office). In the future please co-ordinate prize mail-outs with Jill.
===
SOOOOO, there you are !! FIVE WINNERS, with the Gold Argentino going to Sir Brett Woods, and Silver Maple Leaves to Sirs Farfel, Econoclast, Pizz and Black Blade. (Really, I thought that ALL the essays were WINNERS! I only wish that I could compose such thoughts into pictures.)
<;-)
Gandalf the White
"Tears" Contest Winners
Please send an email to the attention of Jill at cpm@usagold.com and confirm your mailing address for the prizes. Thanks
<;-)
Gandalf the White
<;-)
"Marie, Oh Marieeee. . . .where did you put the key to the vault? I've been
looking for the confounded thing for over an hour now. We need to get into the
Argentino drawer and get out the coins for the contest winners -- Brett Woods
and Golden Bear. Why do I consent to these contests? There nothing but a
drain on the Treasury. Oh, I know. . . .the Brett Woods essay was wonderful --
full of magic -- but we are talking gold here -- hard metal, the real thing.
Not only that, once I find the Argentinos, I'll have to put up those awful
trumpets -- the infernal fanfare, whenever we announce our winners. Thank the
Good Lord, this isn't Monday. I don't think I could endure it. So, you found
it!! Marie, the Key!! To the Vaults!! Forthwith.
===
AND here is a reprint of the WINNER !
---
Brett Woods (04/19/02; 12:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 73866)
******** Argentinean "Tears" *********

Mr. Consuelo cut the leg from a pair of new trousers and clamped one open end around the faucet of the small washroom at the back of his clothing store. He directed the other open end into a mop bucket that his wife was holding at the edge of the sink. People had gone mad in the street below their bedroom, smashing windows and looting the furniture and appliance store next door. Marlene had called the police and they assured her they knew about it and were doing everything they could. Now someone had set a fire and Jorge in a pitched staccato voice agreed with his wife that they should change places so that he could hold the bucket. Her smaller hand groped over his and water from the tap leaped in all directions before Marlene cold make a good seal. The fire would eventually cause damage to bolts of cloth, three sewing machines with their tables and chairs and most of the inventory before firemen put out. The items for sale were ruined by smoke.

Four days earlier, Mr. Consuelo had delivered the cash contents of his register to be deposited at the bank. He used to be on friendly terms with all the staff, but in recent years there had been a high turnover. All the women he knew, including the manager and the loans officer, were now gone. The number of tellers had been halved and the operating hours had been reduced to a number lower than those of any other business he could think of. He had been issued a plastic card and persuaded to use the depository box. Three days ago, Mrs. Consuelo had tried to use that card. The machine screen only blinked at her. It was out of service. The doors to the branch were locked.

Two days ago Mr. and Mrs. Consuelo had run out of money. Today they would have no business, and as Jorge held his softly sobbing wife with her damp night clothes and his damp shirt clinging together, a sense of dread filled him; a sense of desperate horror and teeth grinding self recrimination.

It doesn't matter if you believe that Gold is an old fashioned and out moded store of wealth that now has nothing more that industrial uses. Perhaps you've been told that. It doesn't matter that in your life time you've seen the price of Gold go up and down radically and so feel unsure about the right time to own it. That is separate from my argument here. The fact is, that owning some Gold is the simplest way to protect yourself and your family both against complete destitution, in the case that you be made a refugee, AND in the case where cash currency becomes inaccessible or devalued.

If you think this can't happen, if you think that the only people who keep gold coins or a 10 oz bar, are elderly men and women with irrational night terrors from WWII, perhaps you might want to reconsider. As USAGOLD forum posters have pointed out, it's not inconceivable that this scenario or a worse one involving military muscle could in this generation, come to a town near you. It could come to your town. Recognizing what brought about the tears in Argentina, and thinking about what resources you personally would have if that situation transpired here, seems only prudent.

Brett Woods

http://www.usagold.com
==
Gandalf the White
TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Contest Winners INSTRUCTIONS Your ATTENTION, Please WINNERS !!

====
The POG CONTEST WINNER is Sir Golden Bear wining the golden Argentine Argentino, and with the two "runners-up" being Sir Trurl and Sir Hippleback winning the SILVER Maple Leaves.
and
!! FIVE WINNERS, with the Gold Argentino going to Sir Brett Woods, and Silver Maple Leaves to Sirs Farfel, Econoclast, Pizz and Black Blade.
===
Would all EIGHT Contest Winners please confirm their mailing address via email to Jill at cpm@usagold.com
Thanks and congratulations to ALL.
<;-)
Waverider
Congratulations.....
To Sirs Brett Woods, Farfel, Econoclast, Pizz, and Black Blade. Well done - noble prizes for such noble knights! I raise my glass to all of you, Cheers!
YGM
Barricks New 3.5 M Oz, Peruvian Elephant. (Like an Independent Evaluation?)
http://www.barrick.com/3_Financials/ Mighty fishy timing I'd say partner! When all the best Gold producers are cutting off and scaling back hedges, and having it show up with 200 to 300% share value increase over last 12 months, compared to Barricks measley +/- 60%.

Barrick Spot Deferred Contracts from 2002 to 2008 total 18,200,000 oz of Au at an average price of $345.00 p/oz.

Now keeping in mind things like Bre-X, Enron, and what we know to be a totally corrupt book-keeping and accounting system in public companies, would a little hedging on grades/total tonnage etc. not be out of the question. Especially when the majority of wise Gold analysts & investors are either awaking to the realities of Barrick or already shunning them.

Well I'd say this Elephant size discovery of Barricks should be viewed with a grain of salt and I'd play the penny juniors in the ensueing area play if I wanted to take risks. Does anybody think Brian Mulroney ex Canadian PM/Barrick director sold his shares recently w/o prior knowledge of this (PINK) Elephant in the works. I think he knew of the discovery then and he was playing it safe. Besides he'll get new options set anyway if he sticks around! 2008 Gold @345.00 p/0z Ha! Anybody believes that would buy the hole under an outhouse if I called it a mine!
Pizz
USAGOLD - thankyou
MK and all, thank you.

A great topic to read and write about, and the contest aside, you're putting emphasis on the subject brought me quite a bit closer to the reality of the Argentine situation. Let's hope we never have to witness it first hand.

Thanks again.

Pizz
YGM
More BARRICK......(In-) Digestion....
Feel free to correct my errors here or my misunderstandings... Barricks current hedges for year 2008+ have 5,600,000 oz sold at $345.00 p/oz. Now we've seen Gold go up approx 15% since Apr last year ($264.00). For sake of conjecture if Gold values escalated a compounding 15% each year onward, then we would have an approx price of $700.00 p/oz in 2008.

What's the scenario if Gold goes ballistic for any of the dozen reasons we all know exist!! I know they have paper whatevers to offset higher prices but the "WHOLE THING STINKS"............YGM, (the very amateur # cruncher).

YGM
Excerpt....Reminder!
Daily Reckoning...................Gold producers used to hedge by selling their gold before they mined it [and some, notably ABX, PDG & AU, still do]. But the rising price of gold makes hedging no longer sensible. The forward price is but a hop, skip and jump from the current spot price.

In a falling market, hedging adds supply, and forces the price lower. But in a rising market, hedging has the opposite effect. Producers who hedged their product have to buy on the open market in order to cover their positions.


******** Well maybe in 2008 (if they last that long w/o chapter 11) I'll sell Barrick a little of mine....Probably alot higher than $700.00 p/oz tho!..........YGM.
Old Yeller
Sennholz on the US deficits,fiat currency inter-dependence and...
http://www.sennholz.com/debt.html
Gold,he's sounding quite a bit like FOA in this essay.

It's been quite a run for the dollar,it's going to be an interesting journey coming down the mountain.

YGM
Old Yeller
Thanks...I'd given up checking for his latest...
Good reading for sure....
Black Blade
Argentine saws open bank vault to withdraw savings
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/argentina_banks_1.html
Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, April 23 (Reuters) - One Argentine depositor had a solution to a government freeze of his accounts and a bank holiday to prevent withdrawing his life savings as per a court order -- he had the bank vault cut open and took his cash. ``Despite the bank holiday, this man came with an order to open up. He came with laborers, a locksmith who had to cut the vault open with a circular saw,'' Banco Provincia spokesman Marcelo Bonin told Reuters.

The depositor, who lives in 9 de Julio, some 160 miles (270 km) west of Buenos Aires, showed up with the court order on Monday at the branch of Banco Provincia where he had $160,000 in a term deposit. The bank vault, however, did not contain any U.S. dollars, the safe-haven currency of choice in this Latin American country which at the end of 2001 accounted for two thirds of deposits. ``Since there were no dollars there was a negotiation,'' Bonin said. ``He opened the vault and took 400,000 provincial bonds ($124,600) and 35,000 pesos ($10,900).''


Black Blade: An interesting solution. He probably did a bit of damage to the bank vault too.

Black Blade
YGM - Barrick Find A Non Event

Barrick must have new reserves to feed their hedge book. Production is declining - even at the large Pierina deposit in Peru. This Gold "discovery" has already been forward sold so it is really a non event and will not even show up as a gain on the corporate bottom line. In the end only the upper management will benefit with year end bonuses (as usual).

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Williams Communications Group Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020423/williams_communications_1.html
Snippit:

TULSA, Okla. (AP) -- Williams Communications Group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a deal that will divide the broadband wholesaler's equity between bondholders and its former parent company.


Black Blade: There is likely to be more bad news in coming days affecting the telecom sector.

BTW, As I understand it, the price that Barrick receives for their forward sales includes the interest gained from bonds over the length of the holding period "until maturity" which can be years. This is not a gain that is pocketed immediately.
Sierra Madre
Latin America and other stuff...
I happened to find a copy of Frank Tannenbaum's excellent book "Ten Keys to Latin America", published about 1962.

He was a very perceptive individual with a wide cultural background and he knew L.A. and its people like the back of his hand. He explains in his book, the peculiarities of the Latin Americans, originating in their history, diverse indigenous cultures, their ethnic differences, the religion (Catholic and under it, the remnants of pre-Columbian beliefs.

Bottom line: As of 1962, at least, L.A. required "caudillos" that is to say, leaders or "f�hrers" in German. Democracy just was a dream for intellectuals with no basis in the prevailing culture.

It seems that Ch�vez is the last of the "caudillos", with the exception of Fidel, whose days appear to be numbered. (There is a grave spat with Pres. Fox of Mexico and a rupture of relations is likely)

.....

For historic reasons, the U.S. has been able to maintain the facade of "democracy" in the U.S., but, it seemeth to me, that the point is approaching when that facade will come down and the U.S. will also be run by a "leader" - dare I say, "F�hrer"?

Some people are already suggesting that this is already the case. The increasing militarization of the U.S. internally would seem to point in that direction. Also, the mentality of the average American is moving in the direction of supporting "a leader who knows what must be done, but we can't ask, it's restricted information". Which is what keeps a "caudillo" in power. FWIW.

In her autobiography written with the help of Peyrefitte, Manouche, the French "gallant lady" of the 40's said that Mistinguett, the vaudeville gal of French stage kept gold bars all over her house, then forgot where she stashed them. People were constantly stumbling over something under the carpets - gold bars.

Do think of good places to keep your stash, but, keep a record and tell your family where the record is. They don't want to hunt for treasure maps when you are gone!

A numismatist in Switz. told me once, that treasure troves are constantly turning up - 2,000 years later!

Sierra
R Powell
slingshot/ B.B./ Canuck/ and Pizz
Thanks for the insights on my interpretation of Bill Gross's corporate debt swaps. I thought I understood but, with a little help from my friends, I now know that I learned something correctly. Cool, I now possess a little more knowledge. If the Greenman has to decide between large scale corporate suffering or a little inflation reflected in a higher POG, well?
Thanks also to Mr. Gross for writing the article.
Thanks Bill!
Rich
Sierra Madre
ABout Manouche...
This gal was beautiful, intelligent and shall we say, "pragmatic" and got along quite well during the Occupation. Her memoirs refer mainly to that period. She moved to the Riviera and - no problema. Caf� Society went on as usual, for the most part. "Manouche" was her handle, so to speak, in her "professional capacity" and when Mistinguett asked her what she would like as a "handle", Manouche was the name chosen. And so, she became known by that name.

In typical French fashion, it appears that the best place to live - for a single man, at any rate - during the Occupation was a house of ill-repute. Always plenty of good food.

Ah, the French! Savoir Vivre!

Off topic, but perhaps I shall be forgiven for this lapse.


Sierra
Boilermaker
Secretary of the Treasury throwing stones from a glass house
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/economy_oneill_saving_1.htmlTuesday April 23, 6:02 pm Eastern Time
Reuters Securities
U.S. Treasury to set up office to boost literacy

WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, a staunch believer in boosting financial literacy, announced on Tuesday that his department was setting up a unit to push education.

``The Office of Financial Education will develop and implement financial education policy initiatives, and will oversee and co-ordinate our outreach efforts,'' O'Neill said in remarks prepared for delivery to Operation Jumpstart, a community group.

O'Neill said the proliferation of choices for investment meant people needed to have more education in order to make wise choices. ``Even as the fruits of financial freedom hang so low on the tree today, some of the fruit is rotten,'' he said.

O'Neill noted some investments were frauds and some credit cards and mortgages concealed punishing fees.

``Education is our best defense against the unscrupulous and the criminal, who would foist their schemes on our citizens,'' O'Neill said.

Comment:
Wow! Paul is really looking after us poor ignorant slobs.
CoBra(too)
A(o)u ...ch!
As we can see - the final outcome of fiat currency - is absolute chaos.

The Argentinian Duhalde government resigned after 4 months, apparently after a parliamentary debate about the wisdom of closing the banks - indefinetely.

Nixon closed the $/gold window ... though, gold is still around and in argentinian Peso terms ... gold appreciated some 300% ... pretty neat for the barbarous relic. ... come to think about it - it's been the barbars of the North nibbling away at the Limes and finally bringing down the allmighty Roman Empire. (Uh, oh didn't mean you Canuck friends :)).

Though in Argentina's case it's Big Bro is not watching you, only swallowing you!

Or the moral of the story - don't ever put your faith in fiat - a classic oxymoron for classical ... eh, morons.

... Und die Moral der Geschicht' , vertraue diesem Dollar nicht!

Or should you? ... cb2
YGM
Argentine Woes....
Musing................The news re: Bank machines getting restocked and only allowing $64.00 (in pesos) to be withdrawn would be patheticly funny if it were not unblievably sad for the hardships caused to the young and old and the sick etc.

Imagine opening the vault and finding "NO" American currency by the guy w/ the court order.

How many of the sheeples can visualize Bank runs in N. America? Most people over 70 have some remembrances of the dirty 30's but even most of them had no bank acc't at the time. When those of us with the knowledge/foresight to have Gold/Silver etc stored for such a time as Argentina now faces (who's next cause there's alot of dominoes to fall before the good ole USA $$) we will need to have broad shoulders to weather the fate of fellow men.

While we've all tried so hard to share knowledge, foresight and understanding of future financial armegeddon with these same fellow men we won't be able to share our (my) meager wealth. There invariably are some hard times ahead for all of us 'w/ or w/o any Wars' & 'w/ or w/o any Gold'......YGM
slingshot
Contest Winners
And everyone is a Winner at USAGOLDCONGRATULATIONS to the Winners of the Argentinean Tears CONTEST.

Thanks to Gandalf the White for his time in running the contest.

Thanks to MK and USA GOLD for having the contest.

Thanks to all who participated and shared their thoughts from around the world.


Slingshot----------------------<>
Boilermaker
Congratulations for "Argentinian Tears" winners
I would like to thank MK and Gandalf for hosting this contest of wordsmiths. It was not surprising to me who were chosen the winners, the Gold Argentino going to Sir Brett Woods, and Silver Maple Leaves to Sirs Farfel, Econoclast, Pizz and Black Blade. They show their class at the forum on a regular basis.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted 1800's), also uncirculated $20's from 1877
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

MS61 Graded Liberties

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be...

...Priceless.

Call Centennial for Arrangements or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115

IGWA
Here's What Will Happen...Fanciful? Tell me why...
The crisis will come. Another terrorist attack, more Enrons, Japan, the ME or something that isn't presently even on the radar screen. It doesn't matter what will be the catalyst for the crisis. It will come.

Stock markets world -wide go into free fall and trading is suspended. When they re-open, more precipitous drops cause panic among investors and governments.

Gold jumps $30, then $60 then $150. Gold shares rocket 100%, then 200% in days.

The US $ drops like a stone. Currency markets are chaotic as the corrupt financial system unravels.

Crowds of silent, stunned investors gather outside stock exchanges in cities, watching as the tape records the debacle. Large crowds watch the unfolding drama on TV screens in shops, restaurants & cafes. Long queues form outside PM shops, at first many selling gold and silver, then, as the price of gold passes $1000 and the dollar drops even further, all are panic buyers.

Leaders appear on TV calling for calm. There are runs on the banks as prices increase dramatically. Supermarkets sell out and shut their doors. Trucks and trains bringing supplies into cities are set upon by gangs and robbed. The supply chain begins to break down. Businesses close en masse.

Troops are called in to assist police in keeping order in and around banks as people scramble to get their money out. There is rioting.

After just 6 days, banks close their doors throughout the world.

PM shops have sold all their stock by now, and are closed. Gold sells for $3,000 oz. privately. This site is very busy. Lots of caps�(I'M RICH!!! WE WERE RIGHT!!! GO GOLD GO!!! WE ARE THE TRUE BELIEVERS!!!)

The under class rise and LA burns again. And London. And Paris. Terrorists seize the moment.

The POO reaches $180 pb as the Muslim world seizes it's chance to destroy the infidels. Industry grinds to a halt. The US uses its armed forces in Saudi in an attempt to keep the pipe lines open.

Locally, martial law is declared. Essential services start to fail. The nightmare has begun.

World leaders meet in a secret location and hammer out a new world order over 3 days of intense negotiations.

Almost half the world's population watch the live telecast. People are shell -shocked having seen everything they took for granted turned upside down. They want stability, at any price.

 A World Council has been formed using the structure of the old United Nations as a template.
 World Council Law will apply throughout the world. All parliaments and other forms of governments, politicians, heads of state, & royalty, are banned/dissolved forthwith. The World Council will control all nations from its New York head office, using proxies in each country to carry out its instructions.
 The World Council Armed Forces will be trained and sent to every major city in the world to keep order. This force will eventually number 5,000,000. They will answer only to the World Council, and be very highly paid, attracting loyal, elite servicemen (no women).
 The World Council Bank will control all finances for all countries from the Central World Council Bank. Mr A. Greenspan will be its first Director.
 A new world currency, the NEW is effective immediately. All existing currency is to be exchanged for the NEW at pre-determined rates of exchange.
 The World Council believes that many of the present problems have been brought about by that barbaric metal, gold. The selling, use or possession of gold or silver is banned from the time of this announcement. All gold & silver in private hands is to handed over to authorities within 48 hours. Failure to do so will result in 15 years imprisonment, without trial, or appeal. All gold/silver mines are to be closed and guarded. Gold/silver shares are suspended indefinitely.
 The World Council understands the enormity of these changes, which are for the good of the people of the world. It has decreed that in order to manage this crisis, resistance to it in any way, will result in immediate death by firing squad.
--------------------------
Fanciful stuff. Right?









Black Blade
Puplava Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmA good run down on outstanding bank loans that will not be recovered from Argentina to Japan. Also some nice tidbits on continuing SEC investigations, etc.

Also this from the article:

"Meanwhile ordinary Japanese citizens continue to withdraw money from the banking system. Japanese gold demand rose sixfold in March. Investors are buying precious metals as a safe haven from government imposed limits on bank deposit insurance. Gold imports jumped 569% last month to 13.2 tonnes. Based on the latest buying patterns, Japanese gold buying is expected to add 200 tonnes of additional demand this year. The gold market is already running a supply deficit estimated to range between 1,000-1,500 tonnes of gold a year. This deficit has been increasingly made up by central banks, whom have been dishoarding much of their gold reserves in an effort to keep prices suppressed. That may be coming to an end. At the moment, it is the only thing plugging the holes in the dike and keeping the financial system from imploding."

"Gold is coming back into favor after a multi-decade long slumber. The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society in Hong Kong just debuted trading in gold kilobars. Minimum trading is in lots of 5 kilograms. The commencement of these new pure gold instruments is in response to the growing demand in Asia for gold. The rise in new gold trading instruments reflects an important inflection point in the precious metals markets that have been preceded by the rise in gold and silver shares over the last year."


I agree that the investment world is imploding and the sleepers are beginning to wake up. The spin from the monotonous drones on CNBC and the Pimps of Wall Street is no longer being accepted by the people on Main Street. They see that where there's smpke � there must be fire � and there is a hell of a lot of smoke out there.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
U.S. Will Probe Analysts for Criminal Misconduct
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APMWRohQ5VS5TLiBX
Snippit:

Washington, April 23 (Bloomberg) -- The government, spurred by Enron Corp.'s collapse and concern over accounting irregularities, will conduct criminal investigations to determine whether securities analysts are misleading the public, a federal official said.

Michael Chertoff, head of the Justice Department's criminal division, said in an interview the government will focus on whether securities firms slant research to win investment-banking fees. His remarks escalate the pressure on Wall Street companies already facing congressional inquiries and shareholder lawsuits.

Punishing analysts for ``breaking the rules in the way they disseminate and handle the information of publicly traded companies seems to me to be one of the front-burner white-collar enforcement issues for the next several years,'' Chertoff said. ``We're going to be doing a lot of cases involving financial reporting.''



Black Blade: It's about time.
Gandalf the White
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!!
<;-)
Cavan Man
Japanese Gold Buying: A theory?
Deposit insurance withdrawn to encourage gold buying in private sector. Japan Inc. realizes they cannot sell large quantities of UST without turning over the apple cart and also realize their portfolio is overweight UST. At the same time, they do reaize the need for gold within their shores as they are underweight in this asset class (gold). Will the trickle become a flood?
Gandalf the White
Suggestion --
Save yourself from a HEART ATTACK -- Do not watch the K Chart !!!
<;-)
--
SPOT is doing well and JUMPING tonight with LARGE VOLUME !
SPIKE is "in the wings", getting ready.

slingshot
Siege Engine
The Battle ContinuesThe Lord of the castle had gazed for sometime at the stone.
Just two little words with a major meaning. For a momment he thought, "Could they be right?". Only to be summoned to the wall again. The call rang out that riders approach under a white flag. Upon reaching the parapet he could see the riders below at the beginning of the bridge that crossed the moat.The image they presented were of simple living men bound by a cause. One of importance to be at the foot of a great bastion with many soldiers within its walls.
"What do you want? Why do you lay siege to my castle?" The Lord said with contempt in his voice.
"We come to set Gold free". replied the lead rider.
It shall not be! It is against the Laws of Pro Forma and the Derivative Decrees of the King, answered the Lord.
"Who is this King?" from the horseman on the left.
Who is this King who has no name,yet rules over the land.
Who is this KIng who sets families to poverty and places us in debt?
There was silence from the castle Lord for if he told them the truth he would have no more power. That he would not give up and could not for it would be the end of the Kingdom.
Instead he said, Sir Howe has been defeated in the north in his attempt against my brother. Our carrier pigeons are quite fast to carry news.
From the horseman on the right, Yes we have heard he has taken loses but not defeated. He is on his way here and his ranks grow each day.
The Lord surprized by his bold statement shouts out,"We have nothing more to say to each other,return to the safety of the woods. Gold will remain in chains!"
"We shall not let you sleep", are the final words heard as the three riders turn to go back across the open field.
When they reach their lines the machine again comes to life,hurling another large stone at the castle walls.
And the Lord of the castle wonders if this is the beginning of the end.
mikal
"Wealth of Reasons..."!
http://www.businessweek.com/daily/dnflash/april2002/nf20020423_1120.htmThe title in this week's Business Week article is suspiciously catchy: The tone of the article, the obvious censorship, and distortions are predictably mainstream, giving another bullish contrarian indicator. But sudden fresh exposure given to GOLD!, a big emphasis on gold's role, & a great title MK could have written!
goldquest
IGWA
Yeah, Right! Fanciful BS!
Black Blade
Brownouts, Blackouts Ahead
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020423/nyfnsg02_1.htmlBrownouts, Blackouts Ahead - Power Shortages Likely Due to Deregulation, According to 29-Year Power Industry Engineer

Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Deregulation is forcing the nation into serious shortages of generating and transmission capacity, which, within five years, will ultimately result in widespread-rotating-local and regional electrical brownouts and blackouts. The worst possible consequence of deregulation is the decline or decay in the reliability of the nation's electrical power supply. This is according to Jack Duckworth's paperback ``Power to the People, Electric Power Deregulation, An Expose''


Black Blade: I don't agree on the causes, but I do agree that we are facing a severe "energy Crisis" in the next few years, possibly as soon as this winter. When a problem is outta sight and outta mind, the problem is forgotten until it returns again. Nothing has been done to correct the energy generating and transmission shortfall of early last year.
mikal
Re: IGWA Posting
This kind of extreme scenario has been predicted for as long as I can remember being able to read a newspaper. Fanaticism, myopia, paranoia, hysteria, neurosis all come in many forms- individually, socially such as cults, religions, and fan clubs, and institutionally such as religous extremists. Given the gravity of the threat and the time to contemplate and prepare, the government, military, businesses, and individuals have evolved highly effective deterrents and countermeasures. These include computer security, building and infrastructure security and ongoing enhancements, law enforcement investigations and arrests, gun ownership by truckers, businessmen, etc. Security surveillance is highly advanced over the day of the watchman or guard. Also in the highly improbable event of gold confiscation or banning, POG would be higher than you ever imagined- the blackmarket is alive worldwide for illegal goods, always has, always will. Gold was traded at coin shows, flea markets, pawn shops, and elsewhere in the US before 1974 legalization.
darkhorse
@IGWA
Judging by your posts in the past few weeks, it's my guess your "fanciful stuff" was put up for provocation. You put all the elements together to make the worst case scenario for PM advocates...everything goes belly up, PM's go into orbit but it doesn't do any good for the average guy because they're declared illegal. I wouldn't presume to know what will happen in the future, so I won't say your scenario couldn't happen. I'm not very strong on economic theory, so I'll stick to a bit more of the pragmatic, Joe Six-Pack answer. If it happens:

- your level of economic, financial and social chaos COULD NOT be controlled until the world as we know it has totally disappeared
- there won't be any "...silent, stunned investors..."
- no "...long queues...outside PM shops..."; who's going to stand in line when "...all are panic buyers."? If gangs are going to rob trucks and trains, what will stop them from getting into these?
- when the supply chains break down (around the world), banks close their doors (around the world), businesses close en masse (around the world), GOOD people are going to be looking to provide for themselves and their families, so...
- you won't have any troops to call in to assist police (if it goes down the way you say, they won't be able to keep order, and they themselves will be deserting to go take care of themselves/their families)
- "World leaders meet in a secret location and hammer out a new world order over 3 days of intense negotiations."
YEAH, RIGHT! We're still talking about the kind of humans that live in THIS world, right? The kind of people meeting to set this up will not be the kind of people to agree on ANYthing over a 3 day period. C'mon, let's keep it this side of B movies.
- assuming (a big assumption considering your level of upheaval) some World Council does come out of it (definitely won't be over a period of days), how is it going to have such/any control over a world that just got the crap kicked out of it's infrastructure? (you name the sector...utilities, transportation, production, communication, etc)
- still assuming this World Council has "assumed control" over what's left, how are they gonna train and deploy ANY kind of force ANYwhere in ANY kind of time frame to do any good? After all, we're talking about 6 BILLION people (minus a couple billion or so that, in one way or another "didn't make it") to keep an eye on!
- this World Council won't have any form of government to ban/dissolve...your level of social chaos took care of that pretty early!
- here's what must be a stupid question...why in the world (what's left of it) would this World Council think all the problems stemmed from gold? This part gets REAL hard to believe! Anyway, whoever is left will NOT turn over anything that has been serving as valuable barter since TSHTF. I don't care if it's gold and silver or toilet paper and can openers. And after what they'd been thru, I'm sure they'd be real worried about prison or a firing squad (some just might look forward to the latter!)

I could expound on a lot of this, and bring other points to bear, but I think you get the point. Your scenario is total anarchy in some areas, and Little House on the Prairie in others. Anyway, enough is enough, so I'll let it rest....
slingshot
IGWA
Post on NWOKind of gives you something to look forward to. :o)
Slingshot-------------------<>
CoBra(too)
The Bullion Desk is quoting Spot-
at 304.75 - 305.25 - a # I've expected somehow - maybe, that's why I'm still around tonight... a'''hem, this a.m.

... remind's me of a night - when I sold 5 K Poseidon in 71 - a penny stock going on to 300 Aussie's and broke the next day - and so did the US $ - as it was the same night when Tricky Dick decided to cave in to De Gaulle -on the mere question of gold redeemability of the US $ ... Debt!

Seems a futile question in view of the sheer enormity of outstanding - debt - where no one can ever dream to redeem the paper floating around the globe - for the value rendered to the system of irredeemable delusion.

What a scheme - perpetrated by the illusion of cold war and extended by the tenacity of ending up as the only super-power ... by supremacy and hegemony and seignorage of the printing press.

... Don't even want to continue my thoughts ... as they may be regarded as obstructive to the imperative - go gold - cb2 and g'nite to you too!

Ray Patten
Tonight's Gold rally...
gttp://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.htmlSomeone on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) bought 2500 contracts of April Gold on the opening. As the open interest is only 4500 contracts for that month, it means that some short doesn't want to deliver or some new long is hungry for the real stuff. We'll know tommorrow night about this time when they publish today's open interest. The Tokyo market is already tight. Nearby prices are higher than the distant prices.
Ray Patten
(No Subject)
Aristotle
darkhorse (msg#: 74147) A marvelous response.
You have more energy than I do, and more generosity, too. I'd have cut it short by borrowing (with one modification) from your conclusion:

"Little OUThouse on the prairie."

He has lost everything who has lost all perspective.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
IGWA � Investment Apocalypse and Gold Confiscation


I find that post quite humorous. If things do get that bad, then the US Government is irrelevant and the best thing to have are hard assets. Making Gold illegal would be meaningless and many in the previous Gold confiscation imply ignored the order. The Government can't even fight a war on drugs so there is no chance of any effective war on Gold. Besides, not every country will fall in line. Those who had Gold after the confiscation could simply cross either US border with their Gold and exchange for fiat if they wished. Actually I look at most victimless crime laws as nothing more than mere suggestions � they're nice but not for me. Cheers!

- Black Blade
goldquest
U.S. Treasury Rules To Take Aim At Terror Funding
slingshot
Goldquest
Patriot Act and PM dealersIn an effect to counter the financial transactions of terrorists from today on all purchases or sale of precious metal will be accompanied by filling out form 2002 when the price exceeds $25.00 and reporting to the IRS is mandatory.
This action is no more complicated as filing a yellow sheet in the case when purchasing a gun. Just the paper is blue in color.
Slingshot--------------------------<> <> <>
mikal
@goldquest
This proposal comes as no surprise, many expected it. It's effect on gold investors would be, to make it more difficult to evade capital gains taxes on certain classes of precious metals- i.e. the profits from sales to a dealer who chooses to report the transaction to the IRS as required by law. This reporting is required on a sale of bullion of $10,000 or more (in a single transaction) if I am correct, and certain numismatic coin sales too? Either way, I purchase largely anonymously, always tax-free, and will not sell large quantities all at once. If need be, I can sell a large quantity at one time anonymously.
mikal
Re: Proposed law on reporting
"It's effect on LAW ABIDING, average middle-class investors..." should be minimal, and tax-related, whereas large investors, smugglers, dealers, terrorists, etc. will be subject incarceration, interrogation, confiscation, and more.
darkhorse
another intrusive, obnoxious law...
I read in the article that PM businesses (among others) will have >90 days for compliance. I really doubt if they want to know about little guys like me trying to buy an ounce or two at a time.
JCTex
IGWA
"Fanciful stuff. Right?"

Yep, right out of hollywood.
Nomad
(No Subject)

well I wrote a nice long post and then lost it all at the last second, so you will be spared my words of wisdom ... :)

but the essence of it is that I AGREE with IGWA ... maybe not with the timing or the specific events, but with the idea that some huge changes are coming down the pipe. I happen to believe that we (well most of us hopefully) will come out the other side of the next two decades into a VERY different world of much more security (either through strict government control or vast decentralization) and longevity (150 years not being out of the question).

But in the meantime,hold on to your hats, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

And even though I am not a big fan of NWO conspiracies, it is also obvious that the world IS moving in the direction of a one-world governement. Witness the recent calls to indite US officials (including Clinton) for their partiBosnian/Serbian War.


Nomad
(No Subject)

well I wrote a nice long post and then lost it all at the last second, so you will be spared my words of wisdom ... :)

but the essence of it is that I AGREE with IGWA ... maybe not with the timing or the specific events, but with the idea that some huge changes are coming down the pipe. I happen to believe that we (well most of us hopefully) will come out the other side of the next two decades into a VERY different world of much more security (either through strict government control or vast decentralization) and longevity (150 years not being out of the question).

But in the meantime,hold on to your hats, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

And even though I am not a big fan of NWO conspiracies, it is also obvious that the world IS moving in the direction of a one-world governement. Witness the recent calls to indite US officials (including Clinton) for their partiBosnian/Serbian War.


Nomad
American Tears ...

Well I wrote a nice long post and then lost it all at the last second, so you will be spared (most of) my words of wisdom ... :)

The essence is that I AGREE with IGWA ... maybe not with the timing or the specific events, but with the idea that some huge changes are coming down the pipe. I happen to believe that we (well most of us, hopefully) will come out the other side of the next two decades into a VERY different world than we see today.

And even though I am not a big fan of NWO conspiracies, it is also obvious that the world IS moving in the direction of a one-world governement. Witness the recent calls to indite US officials (including Clinton) for their participation (tacitly, illicitly or openly) in Bosnian/Serbian war crimes. And why do organizations such as the IMF and WTO exert such tremendous influence on internal personal freedoms and business practices in ALL countries around the world ? (re: Argentina and China)

Most of you, I think, are angry that he (IGWA) is attacking your (and my) own personal sacred cow ... but one of the things that I have learned over the years is that I have to pay particular attention to those arguments that push my buttons and make me angry in some way, because that means that there is SOME truth to those arguments ... and I need to adjust my strategies to accomodate that truth instead of dismissing it out of hand.

Don't get me wrong, I think gold is a VERY wise investment/personal security blanket ...

It just isn't the ONLY one.



Nomad
American Tears ...

whoops :)
IGWA
Gentlemen....
Aristotle....I've already got my little house - and outhouse - on the prairie, thanks.

darkhorse... hard to provoke those with heads deeply in the sand...

Your RIGHT about no queues o/s PM shops - the mobs will storm them..and the troops WILL desert to look after their own.. Yep. it's gonna be worse than I thought, thanks for the pointers.

mikal... "Fanciful, myopic, paranoid, hysterical & neurotic" Spot on. And that's just a few of the posters here...

As for no "silent, stunned investors" Well my friend, in Oct 87 I was silent & stunned, with hundreds of others outside the Sydney Stock Exchange as I watched my life time investments evaporate before my eyes. Fear is tangible. You can smell it. I smelt it then - my own fear, and that of others. We were fortunate(?) then that it didn't go on from there into a full blown economic catastrophe. This time, I don't think we'll be so 'lucky'.

OK. Maybe I am being provocative. But you guys report on the disintegrating financial world around us - Blackblade and others do a fantastic job of that - but you fail to aknowledge that governments WILL act. And that action could be very negative for gold. I just think you should face facts. That's all.

Cheers!

igwa




darkhorse
@Nomad
I'm not sure anybody is really angry with IGWA or anybody else that seems to want to question/challenge the popular beliefs we hold around here. I, for one, can't stand anybody that believes their way or beliefs are the only ones that matter, and dismiss anybody elses just because they differ. What I DO object to is making an argument just for arguments sake, and not having anything concrete to back it up with. To paraphrase an old saying, "There's no substitute for knowing what you're talking about." Some of us aren't the best writers and this type of media leaves a whole lot of room for misunderstanding, but I'm pretty sure most here can tell when a big pile of it has been thrown down.
goldquest
@Nomad
Thanks for your input and opinion. However, I doubt that any of us are angry at IGWA over his (her) posts. I have found that the majority of the members of this forum are open minded and tolerant of most contributions to this forum. My only comment about a negative position to the gold community is, if you walk into a biker bar and start badmouthing Harleys, look for a very vigorous debate and counter attack!
darkhorse
@IGWA
Unless I missed a big part of it, Oct 87 wouldn't even be considered a ripple compared to what you described in your "fanciful stuff". I'm sure a lot of people got pretty quiet back then, but you/they weren't looking at the beginning of TEOTWAWKI, either. (TEOTWAWKI => anybody remember that one?) And I think you miss the point around here when you make statements like "...you fail to aknowledge that governments WILL act...". You may be right, those actions MIGHT not be conducive to holding PM's. But I think you should realize that not everybody thinks our government (ANY government) has our best interests at heart, and has proven time after time that they DON'T know what's best for all us little peons. Therefore, measures should be taken to provide for the health, safety and welfare of our families. You're playing the devils advocate around here, but I know what you're trying to say. Now, it's time I go nite-nite with my 3-y/o.
YGM
OK!......Us Doom & Gloomers (Possibly Realists....Time Will Tell All)
http://www.happynews.com/Can turn over a new leaf (put on a happy face) and look for our daily fix of info here and finish the day with the link above, so we can all sleep better........YGM.
YGM
Well the Happy Link was....
A little "Nauseus"....Except for this....I am Thankful for ...


.... the mess to clean up after a party
because it means I have been surrounded by friends.

.... the taxes I pay
because it means that I'm employed.

.... the clothes that fit a little too snug
because it means I have enough to eat.

.... my shadow who watches me work
because it means I am out in the sunshine.

.... the spot I find at the far end of the parking lot
because it means I am capable of walking.

.... all the complaining I hear about our government
because it means we have freedom of speech.

.... that lady behind me in church who sings off key
because it means that I can hear.

.... the piles of laundry and ironing
because it means my loved ones are nearby.

.... the lawn that needs mowing, windows that need
cleaning and gutters that need fixing
because it means I have a home.

.... my huge electric bill
because it means that I am comfortable.

.... weariness and aching muscles at the end of the day
because it means that I have been productive.

.... the alarm that goes off in the early morning hours
because it means that I am alive!

LIVE WELL, LAUGH OFTEN, LOVE MUCH
Goldfly
Hipplebeck and Everyone....
Hip, you have nailed it. I'm wrestling with the same dilemma - How do I unplug myself from this inherently evil and ever-expanding fiat scam and still provide for my family? Do I just go carve out some land and squat? Let God handle the bill? Dunno. Doesn't seem quite right. It is a possibility though. Please continue to post, I will be interested to know your progress in the path you've embarked.

Everybody, IGWA's post is kid's stuff. The day is coming that will make Hitler, Stalin and Mao look like Huey, Dewy and Louie. I think we North Americans especially don't understand the depths of depravity of which we are capable and the kind of order that can be maintained by a reign of terror. We've been largely spared experience of that kind of thing. And it just isn't pleasant to think about. So we don't and when someone brings it up we shrug it off.

Of course, I am holding on to the PMs. They just may provide the leverage needed in a time like that. Maybe.

Golly, this is thoroughly depressing me. How about you? Ok I'll stop.
goldquest
@YGM
Thanks my friend! You have put things back into perspective! Best wishes, goldquest.
mikal
@Goldfly
Why do you "shrug off" the posts that talk about the economy, gold manipulation, war, etc.? Can't you be balanced and original?
mikal
@IGWA
Irrelevant posts here are always welcome by me, even when they disregard the background and precedent of preceding posts. Mistakes are are greatest teacher. Also, quotes from other posters should be accurate and taken in their original context if you would expect to be convincing.
mikal
Spelling correction
"Mistakes are our greatest teacher." : )
Goldfly
Mikal - Shrugging
Actually, I was talking about you... (and others...)
mikal
@Goldfly
No kidding! BTW, my message to IGWA applies to ALL posters, in case you can't read.
Waverider
Argentine economy minister quits as crisis grows
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3GXMF3E0D&live=true&tagid=FTDO9DHMZJCSnippit:
"Argentina's economy minister resigned on Tuesday, throwing the future of the country's economic policy further into question and placing government in fresh disarry.

Jorge Remes Lenicov is the fifth economy minister to quit since the end of 2000. He decided to go after failing to secure congressional support for an emergency law converting at least 45bn pesos ($10bn) in bank deposits into government IOUs.

On Monday, President Eduardo Duhalde had put the problem in Congress's lap, saying that the future of the banks would remain "in God's hands" if the law was not passed. He added that legislators were free to elect a new president if they were unhappy with his performance. Congress appointed Mr Duhalde as interim president in January after nationwide rioting toppled two governments in December.

On Tuesday, Mr Duhalde was locked in crisis meetings to determine whether the loose parliamentary coalition that sustains him could survive. Participants were said to be studying broader changes in the cabinet as well as alternative plans to rescue the banking system, which is losing more than 100m pesos a day.

Amid the renewed political chaos, the country remained at a near-standstill, with transactions mainly limited to cash. Around the country, Argentines queued for hours outside bank machines in often frustrated attempts to get enough cash to see them through the bank holiday measures, which are due to be lifted on Friday. Many businesses were closed and others would not accept credit or debit cards."

Waverider: The abyss just seems to be getting deeper and darker for the Argentines, with no ray of light apparent on the horizon yet.
Goldfly
"Boys they are that shout at the wind....
But a strong wind has no ears!"

- ANOTHER
Goldfly
I hate emoticons
YGM
Goldfly...
My 2 bits...I don't see you shrugging off at all. If you read you wonder & if you wonder you question. It's all a series of progressions I think. I first started rethinking and looking for new answers a few years ago after reading James Davidsons comments on how the big boys in the know were selling their homes in plush areas of NY. (The Great Reckoning) He siad they knew that there was going to be a day of reckoning financialy and so they were preparing for the storm. Sell & lease a place to live is essentially what he said. He never got into hoarding gold etc but it made me think. Well since then I've had many changes and many self doubts myself. His & Moog's predictions of total meltdown haven't yet come to pass but thier reasoning is becoming ever more evident. So to make a long story short I've offed all the land, stocks and debt, credit cards and leased a farm/ranch near a small town with good people and good schools and at the base of the Rockies :-)) continue to work at what I do but put more effort than ever before to be happy w/ family and life. Stress relieved in all ways if one does not get overwhelmed with what the world may or may not come to. I still learn all I can and pass on what I feel others may like to know (I may be overbearing here in that respect, and apologize) but my point is having security is what "IS" most important to me. Food stored, Gold, Camping Gear and a weapon to protect my family etc a P/U truck to haul it all if the need ever arose to become migrant is all I can do for that security and peace of mind.
Otherwise my friend I still got lots of room left in the basement for ping-pong and lots of hope in human nature and our future. Just staying aware and prepared is all we can do. Maybe trying ever so softly to awaken friends and loved ones comes with all of that....G'nite...YGM
Mr Gresham
IGWA, T-ranslated
I just thought we could benefit from some further exegesis of the IGWA (whom I do thank for his contribution) scenario, courtesy of a well-known T-V celebrity...

IGWA (04/23/02; 17:56:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74136)
Here's What gonna Happen...Fanciful? I pity the fool! ~ Tell Murdock why...~The fool's crazy! that darn crisis gonna come. Where's that Murdock? ~ Another terrorist attack, Helluva Enrons, Japan, the the Faceman or something that darn isn't presently even on the darn radar screen. It doesn't matter what gonna be some catalyst for some crisis. It gonna come. ~
dollahs markets world -wide go into free fall and trading gunna be suspended. Foo! When they re-open, Helluva precipitous drops cause panic among investors and governments.~Shut up, fool!

Gold jumps $30, then $60 then $150. ~Not again... Gold shares rocket 100%, then 200% in days.~You couldn't take on a bunch of girlscouts singlehandedly!

that darn US $ drops like a stone. ~Get out of my way, sucka! Currency markets are chaotic as the crazy corrupt financial system unravels.Crazy Fool!

Crowds of silent, stunned investors gather outside dollahs exchanges in cities, watching as the crazy tape records the darn debacle. ~One of these days I'm gonna pound you all into the ground... Large crowds watch the unfolding drama on TV screens in shops, restaurants & cafes. ~Come on, you can do better than that! ~ Helluva queues form outside PM shops, at first Helluva selling gold and silver, then, as some price of gold passes $1000 and that darn dollar drops even further, all are panic buyers.Crazy Fool!

Leaders appear on TV calling for calm. Fool! ~ There are runs on the crazy banks as prices increase dramatically. ~You got that right, crazy man. Supermarkets sell out and shut their doors. ~You lied to me! Trucks and trains bringing supplies into cities are set upon by gangs and robbed. ~You don't have no plan. You didn't have no plan 'till now. the darn supply chain begins to break down. ~I ain't goin' to no airport. I ain't flyin' with that crazy fool Murdock. ~ Businesses close en masse. ~

Troops are called in to assist police in keeping order in and around banks as people scramble to get their dollahs out. ~I ain't afraid to fly, and I ain't afraid of no monkeys either. There gunna be rioting.~This man's nuts!
After just 6 days, banks close their doors throughout the darn world.~If you don't get your finger out of my face, I'm gonna turn it into chopped liver!
PM shops have sold all their fool's gold by now, and are closed. ~Murdock... Is this your chicken? ~ Gold sells for $3,000 oz. privately. Foo! ~ thoze site is Helluva busy. ~Leave the man alone! Lots of caps�(Mr.T'M RICH!!! Foo! WE WERE RIGHT!!! ~Murdock... Is this your chicken? ~ GO GOLD GO!!! This milk better not have no sleepin' powder or nothin' in it. ~ WE ARE the crazy TRUE BELIEVERS!!!)

the crazy under class rise and LA burns again. And London. This milk better not have no sleepin' powder or nothin' in it. And Paris. ~What! Idiot shot the tires on my van!!!! Terrorists seize the moment.~

the darn POO reaches $180 pb as the darn Muslim world seizes it's chance to destroy the darn infidels. I pity the fool! Industry grinds to a halt. ~No way, fool... ~ the US uses its armed forces in Saudi in an attempt to keep the crazy pipe lines open. ~I'm gonna hit you so hard I'm gonna knock you into next week!

Locally, martial law is declared. This milk better not have no sleepin' powder or nothin' in it. Essential services start to fail. ~Kill those suckas! that darn nightmare has begun.~Got no time for the Jibba Jabba.

World leaders meet in a secret location and hammer out a new world order over 3 days of intense negotiations.Darn fool!

Almost half the darn world's population watch the live telecast. Crazy Fool! People are shell -shocked having seen everything they took for granted turned upside down. ~You couldn't take on a bunch of girlscouts singlehandedly! ~ They want stability, at any price.

 A World Council has been formed using the structure of the darn old United Nations as a template.~I ain't goin' to no airport. I ain't flyin' with that crazy fool Murdock.
 World Council Law gonna apply throughout the crazy world. ~No, fool! All parliaments and other forms of governments, politicians, heads of state, & royalty, are banned/dissolved forthwith. ~Murdock... is this your chicken? some World Council gonna control all nations from its New York head office, using proxies in each country to carry out its instructions.
 some World Council Armed Forces gonna be trained and sent to every major city in the world to keep order. Prepare to feel the T's fist! thoze force gonna eventually number 5,000,000. ~Shut up, fool! ~ They gonna answer only to that darn World Council, and be Helluva highly paid, attracting loyal, elite servicemen (no women).~One of these days I'm gonna pound you all into the ground... >
 the darn World Council Bank gonna control all finances for all countries from some Central World Council Bank. ~Dont stay up late, eat all your greens. Remember I love you. I'll see you soon. Mr A. ~Now get the first-aid kit before you have to use it on yourself! ~ Greenspan gonna be its first Director.~What's keepin' those fools!
 A new world currency, that darn NEW gunna be effective immediately. ~Don't touch that! ~ All existing currency is to be exchanged for the crazy NEW at pre-determined rates of exchange.~
 the crazy World Council believes that crazy Helluva of that darn present problems have been brought about by that darn barbaric metal, gold. ~That's right, I hate coincidence! ~ the darn selling, use or possession of gold or silver is gunna be banned from that darn time of this crazy announcement. ~ All gold & silver in private hands is gunna be to handed over to authorities within 48 hours. Foo! ~ Failure to do so gonna result in 15 years imprisonment, without trial, or appeal. ~ All gold/silver mines are to be closed and guarded. ~ Gold/silver shares are suspended indefinitely.~Shut up, fool!
 the crazy World Council understands the darn enormity of these changes, which are for the Helluva of the people of that darn world. ~I don't think so, suckah. It has decreed that darn in order to manage 'dis crisis, resistance to it in any way, gonna result in immediate death by firing squad.Foo! ~
--------------------------
Fanciful stuff. ~ Right?~This man's nuts!




IGWA (04/23/02; 21:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74164)
Gentlemen....~What you doin'?!? You can't drive, sucka!!
Aristotle....the Faceman 've already got Mr.T little house - and outhouse - on the darn prairie, thanks.~You mind your own business, fool!

darkhorse... What's this Jibba Jabba? ~ hard to provoke those with heads deeply in some sand...Foo! ~

Your RIGHT about no queues o/s PM shops - some mobs gonna storm them..and the troops gonna desert to look after their own.. ~ Yep. ~ it's gonna be worse than some T thought, thanks for that darn pointers.~Yeah... I think I can rig something up...

mikal... ~This man's nuts! ~ "Fanciful, myopic, paranoid, hysterical & neurotic" Spot on. ~Who me? I ain't afraid of nothin'. And that crazy 's just a Helluva of the darn posters here...~Not again...
As for no "silent, stunned investors" Well the crazy Faceman's friend, in Oct 87 Mr.T wud silent & stunned, with hundreds of others outside some Sydney fool's gold Exchange as I watched that darn Faceman's life time investments evaporate before Murdock's eyes. ~ Fear is tangible. ~My fist's gonna see you later if you don't get that lizard away from me! Mr.T can smell it. Crazy Fool! Murdock smelt it then - Murdock's own fear, and that crazy of others. ~When I get finished with 'em, they're gonna be really big on pain. ~ We were fortunate(?) then that darn it didn't go on from there into a full blown economic catastrophe. Drink your Milk! this crazy time, Mr.T don't think we'll be so 'lucky'.~Not again...

OK. Maybe that darn T gonna being provocative. But Murdock guys report on some disintegrating financial world around us - Blackblade and others do a fantastic job of that darn - but the T fail to aknowledge that crazy governments gonna act. And that crazy action could be Helluva negative for gold. Mr.T just think Mr.T should face facts. that crazy 's all.~You better make sure nothin' happens to my gold.

Cheers!~This man's nuts!

igwa


Mr Gresham
oops, link
MarkeTalk
New proposed Treasury reporting requirements for gold dealers
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/economy_treasury_terror_1.htmlWe must be getting close to a financial meltdown for the Treasury, i.e. IRS to propose new dealer-reporting requirements on precious metals dealers. Today's Wall Street Journal carried a front-page article smack dab in the middle of the paper so no one would miss it. Of course, the spinmeisters referred to the new legislation as The Patriot Act and in the process equated terrorism with money laundering. However, this is nothing more than a disguised ploy to find out where the gold is in the event of a crisis. And a crisis will open the door to another gold confiscation. The new legislation hopes to ostensibly stop tax evasion as well. This tactic has been used by the IRS for some time because it is easier to get a conviction on money laundering than on tax evasion. The requirements of the money laundering statute are easier to meet.

So what does all of this mean to the average investor??? To those thinking individuals who have more than just a body temperature and a pulse (which sadly is the majority of American society), it means BUY YOUR GOLD NOW BEFORE THE RULES ARE ENACTED!!! I have repeatedly told my clients over and over again to expect a further closing of the loopholes with respect to gold transactions. And now that fateful day is coming upon us. But you don't have to be a victim. BE PRO-ACTIVE, NOT REACTIVE!

The only reason the IRS did not include gold dealers in past legislation was because gold has been in a bear market for so long--about 19 years from 1980 to 1999. But now the gold bull market is about two years old and the price won't go back down below $300 per ounce. The chart looks great and many people are turning to gold. Economically, the insiders in Washington, DC know the poop is ready to hit the fan and the gold price is ready to go beserk. Just look at the headlines of this week. Argentina's economy has collapsed and so has its new government. The IMF is refusing to give new aid as the whole mess gets nastier. US and European banks have taken bigger hits on Argentina's loan defaults than they first admitted. Japanese banks are still in the intensive care unit and on life support. And now add to this fine mess the most recent meltdown in the telecoms sector (MCI Worldcom, Ericsson, Deutsche Telekom, Lucent (again!), the list goes on) and you can see why gold is so robust.

In conclusion: What the final rules will say about reporting gold transactions to the Treasury is anyone's guess. But why wait?? You know it is going to be bad news, so ACT NOW before the gold dealers are required to get your social security number and other personal information. To all of my present clients and prospective clients: Just pick up the telephone and call me here at Centennial on extension 102. As I am wont to say: a word to the wise is sufficient. All others--this means all procrastinators and idiots--will suffer needlessly. That is a guarantee you can take to the bank!

GC
Gandalf the White
Is it a FULL MOON tonight ?
<;-(
Jin-Yin
IGWA
http://www.trufax.org/welcomemsie.html
Heavy stuff but unfortunately much of it rings true in my twisted mind. Coming from that point of view, for what it is worth; 2 cents, you have some valid points to ponder. Because your post is a prognostication, it therefor is open to interpretation and speculation just like our politically correct history. No problem as nothing is written in stone and from the sounds of it you and most everyone else certainly don't know for sure what will happen in that future. Therefor any and all ideas should be welcome and discussed.

If some become upset at your and others� ideas about the future, then that is their problem and only shows lack of understanding and compassion. Whether you are right or wrong is inconsequential as all things are possible. Only a narrow mind would ignore certain facts to suit their needs in order to avert discomfort. This doesn't mean that all who responded negatively to your post are narrow minded or that this future will play out as you see it but at least people are aware that it is a possibility. Certain people do scheme to bring back an order that is not new but a reversion to serfdom and slavery. That is a fact and well documented if anyone wants to research it. Otherwise television is the next best source of information. Read sarcasm here.

This slow boil so to speak happens on a day to day scale over many years to become imperceptible as the changes take place. There is a more important side to this equation that is eternal and permanent but less focused on which helps some see through the soup; spirituality, not new-age clap trap but knowing that we are more than our physical bodies and earthly beliefs. Our spiritual side will last forever, full stop. This is easily dismissed because it is not a tangible like so much other phenomenon that goes on around us unnoticed and ignored. There in lies the paradox that all is not what it seems. Our reality is impermanent and will not last the test of time. It is really an illusion that is so convincing that we take it so seriously like an actor in the big production. Disassociate yourself from the play and become an observer is much more palatable and bearable without having to stick your head in the sand or to take drastic measures.

There is so much more out there that is not discussed but would raise consciousness levels, which is an individual endeavor and will never be dictated, to a degree that we would not have to worry about what you speak of. Will there be a critical mass or will we all destroy much of what generations before us have done or not done to protect our freedoms? Time will tell but as Nomad said, there is something coming down the pike. Being prepared both mentally and physically is a good start because we do live in interesting times.

Will have the chance to visit your neck of the woods soon, East Coast. Look forward to few VBs, Katoomba trails and Jamison Valley views. Not necessarily in that order.

Cheers.

PS. Try this link if you haven't found it in your quest: http://www.trufax.org/welcomemsie.html

Read Robert Monroe's stuff too.
Black Blade
Golden Celebration
http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html/2002/04/20/12572.php
Note that mega-hedgers ABX and PDG did not far as well as Non-Hedgers NEM, GLG and MDG.
Black Blade
Nevada Silver
http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html/2002/04/20/12571.php

Snippit:

In 2001, Nevada � the largest producing state � generated 17.5 million ounces of silver, down slightly from 2000, the sixth year out of the past seven that silver production exceeded 20 million ounces. By comparison, the United States produced 57.6 million ounces of silver in 2001, valued at about $290 million. During the past decade, demand for silver increased 32 percent worldwide, according to the Silver Institute, an association of silver miners, refiners and wholesalers.


Black Blade: Most of Nevada's Silver production is by-product of Gold mining.
Black Blade
Gold Deposits of the Carlin Trend
http://www.rgj.com/news/files/2002/04/20/8491.jpg.php
A map of the Carlin Trend Gold deposits. Other noteable trends and districts not shown are the Getchell trend, Walker Lane, and several isolated mines.
Topaz
Gandalph re Moon.
Not from where I'm sitting - Guesstimate Friday eve.
Black Blade
Argentine economy chief quits
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1945000/1945566.stm
Snippit:

Argentina's government has lost its economy minister, in a crisis which feels like a replay of the serial government collapses of last year.

Black Blade: �Basta! �No M�s! They're dropping like flies.
Black Blade
'Our dreams have been stolen'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1750000/1750411.stm
Snippit:

In Argentina, post-devaluation prices are rising on everything from bread to electronics, delivering a further blow to consumers. Three residents tell BBC News Online of their hardships.


Black Blade: As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Black Blade
There Is No Future
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1723000/1723711.stm
Snippit:

The poverty you see in the Greater Buenos Aires is incredible. Here too, but there you see more of it, because everyone goes there looking for work and there isn't any. You see huge areas of people who have nothing to eat. In recent years I have seen more and more people scavenging in the rubbish bins. You see whole families doing - parents with young children.


Black Blade: This same scenario will spread throughout much of South America and a similar future awaits Japan. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Black Blade
Argentina president in crisis talks
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1947000/1947766.stm
Economic proposals were met by protests

Snippit:

Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde is holding crisis meetings to put together a new cabinet after the resignation of the economy minister and other officials.
Jorge Remes Lenicov - Argentina's fifth economy minister in as many months - stepped down after Congress refused to consider emergency legislation to prevent the banking system from collapsing.


Black Blade: It just gets better all the time.
Black Blade
AOL Seen Posting Big 1st Quarter Loss
AOL Seen Posting Big 1st Quarter Loss On Asset Writedown

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- AOL Time Warner Inc. (TWX ) (AOL) is expected to post one of the biggest quarterly losses in corporate history when it reports first-quarter results Wednesday.

The primary reason for the loss is a mammoth charge of $54 billion to write down the value of media company's goodwill assets, in accordance with a new accounting rule. The writedown, which AOL previously disclosed, reflects the decline in the value of AOL's assets since America Online (NYSE: AOL) 's $147 billion purchase of Time Warner in January 2001.

Black Blade: Old news, but - This is one for the record books! $54 Billion write off!
Canuck
How soon they forget re:IGWA
..and on Sept 10 if he had written of planes flying into buildings killing thousands..........

...and prior to dropping atomic bombs on civilian Japanese...

Three months ago there was a debate over nuking Afganistan and/or Iraq.

What do you think will happen, you are going to get a pat on the back for buying gold?

...and when the world runs out of oil, food and water simultaneously in the year....

We talk (many hope) for the devirative meltdown, what then?

Be careful what you hope for.

The average home here is $200,000 and the average home over there is $200, do you think THEY are a little vindictive?

a) I buy gold because I am afraid of the future.
b) I buy silver in case I am wrong in a)
c) I buy guns in case I am wrong in a) and b)

When, and not if, gold wealth replaces paper wealth do you think THEY are going to be complacent about it?

THEY already stole the gold once, do you think that they are not going to do it again?

To be continued.......

Black Blade
GE's Long-Term Debt Skyrocketing
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1019581057.html
Snippit:

New York, April 23 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. has a debt problem. That paragon of management? True enough. GE has been taken to the woodshed and forced to reduce its reliance on short-term borrowings -- which had totaled about $100 billion. GE's capitulation to a pair of market enforcers won't be the end of the story. The company is replacing much of its commercial paper, which matures in nine months or less, with longer-term securities. While that will make General Electric's interest costs more predictable, it'll also make them higher. What's more, the new bonds will balloon GE's long-term debt, which was $79.8 billion at the end of 2001. After Enron Corp., General Electric's critics may be no happier with that than they were with high short-term debt.


Black Blade: The rumor is that Moody's will downgrade GE's debt rating soon. Recently GE was denied a $1 Billion credit line. You won't hear this on CNBC (GE is the parent company of CNBC).
CoBra(too)
@ Canuck Re: IGWA
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/dospassos.cfm?cfid=93093&cftoken=38325355πd=2163Havn't seen a more gloomy outlook by a regular contributor
at the Cafe - apologize for making a loan at the Cafe - it's just so fitting with the latest thoughts.

Marke Talke's finding is probably as scary. Thanks George!

Regards cb2
Hipplebeck
To Goldfly
So far, I have not sent in the usual quarterly tax payment that I have been doing for years. I am suspending all taxes, because I am not going to have income. That is my main objective right now. I refuse to give these government guys any more money to be used against me. The only way I can find to not give them any tax money is not to have income.

I am doing some work on my own house right now while I think of ways to carry on. I am going to go out to my Mom and Dads house when I am done and paint it for them. Even though I have been living with my "wife" for 16 years, we are not legally married, and we are refinancing the house into her name. She is just not prepared to risk losing it, and I don't blame her one bit. I am taking some money out on this refinancing. I don't know yet whether I will need it, but I don't have to pay taxes on it. I might buy a piece of property somewhere out in the sticks just so I will have a place to pitch a tent if I need to some day. I am not against society, just this gang of criminals who are currently in charge of the US government. I think it is totally ridiculous that they steal half of what we make and then use the money in such corrupt ways. There is only one way to stop them that does not involve armed rebellion, and that is take away their money.

Personally I think this is the path to my own poverty, but I still feel a lot better that I am not going to be paying for the demise of this great country. They have stomped the constitution into nothingness. They think nothing of interferring into the business of other soveriegn nations or bombing people. There is a Nazi regime coming into power, and that is a fact. Any one who doesn't see the fascist beast rearing it's ugly head has their head in the sand. To me it's almost like a nightmare watching what is happening.
If you haven't seen the movie "Swing Kids" go out and rent it. It is about a group of young kids who have a swing music club in Germany just as the Nazis are gaining in power. It's a really good movie with great music and dancing. The pressure is on them to quit that "evil American music" and join the Nazi youth clubs. That is what we are looking at.


To IGWA:

Dude, don't underestimate the power of the masses. History is full of stories about people who have had their heads cut off while attempting to carry out their dreams of world dominance.
da2g
Mr Gresham: T-ranslated
Unfortunately Mr. Gresham, the world (nor the price of gold for that matter) has not been the same since The A-Team went to work for the government.
LeSin
Gulf States View of ME Situation - OCCUPATION Can Make One Irritable, Yes
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/print.asp?ArticleID=48669
� �
Occupation root cause of violence
Dubai | By Bassam Za'za' | 23/04/2002



Dr. Graham E. Fuller
�The main reason for the violence in the Middle East is the occupation, said a leading political consultant yesterday.

Dr Graham E. Fuller, an analyst in Muslim World Geopolitic Islamic Issues, told a press conference at the Dubai Press Club: "All European Foreign Ministers and the European community as a whole have called for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and that is exactly what should be done.

I believe that the main cause for the continuous escalating violence in the Middle East is the occupation itself. The Palestinians won't return to negotiating the peace process unless Israel withdraws from their lands.

"The Jewish lobby inside the American Congress exerts a lot of pressure on the Bush Administration especially when it comes to the U.S. policy in the Middle East. That is why we see that the administration is highly supportive of Sharon and his government in their brutal policy against the Palestinians.

The closest example is the right wing extremists who support the Jewish lobby inside the government which is trying to impose political and economic pressure on the administration regarding U.S. policy in the Middle East."

On U.S. President George Bush describing Sharon as a man of peace, Dr Fuller said: "I think Bush chose the wrong words when he called Sharon a man of peace. During the latest escalation in violence, Israel committed brutal massacres, especially in the Jenin refugee camp, and I call upon the UN to conduct a criminal investigation.

"Sharon's policies and tactics failed clearly, and it has made him look a total mess and in a desperate condition in front of his people. Palestinians now feel more humiliated and are more persistent to fight for their just cause.

"Sharon thought that through his artillery he could prevent the Palestinians from retaliating, but now he has clearly failed. He succeeded in encouraging them to become more determined to fight."

The former Vice-Chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA pointed out that the Evangelical Christians in the U.S. (a Protestant extremist group) support the Jewish lobby in the American Administration in its policy on Israel in the Middle East.

"Depending on one's perspective, the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon can be seen either as a success, evidence that a few activists can deal a grievous blow to a superpower in the name of their cause, or as a failure, since the attackers brought on the demise of their state sponsor and more likely of their own organisation while galvanising near global opposition.

"To help the latter lesson triumph, the U.S. will have to move beyond the first phase, which punished those directly responsible for the attacks and address the deeper sources of political violence and terror in the Muslim world today.

"President Bush has repeatedly stressed that the war on terrorism isn't a war on Islam. But by seeking to separate Islam from politics, the West ignores the reality that the two are intricately intertwined across a broad swath of the globe from Northern Africa to South East Asia."
Hipplebeck
Next week
Is going to be very very interesting. Saudi Abdullah coming to Texas on Thursday with an Arab mandate outlining their idea of a just settlement in Isreal. Sharon is not going to give up the settlements, much less East Jerusalem. Sharon has only one way out as far as I can see, and that is to make sure the war is escalated. He has got to get the US against all Arabs. The US must decide. Bushies are trying to play both sides, and that always ends up with both sides hating you.
The fuse is lit, the clock is ticking.
Just like in the movies. I can hardly stand the suspense.
Hipplebeck
Gold and Oil
will take off big time if Abdullah doesn't get some satisfaction from his meeting with Bush. He is making up for all shortages right now, but I sure don't expect that to last unless he gets some respect from the US.
tick tock tick tock
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Econoclast
Thanks to the Castle, Congrats to all the entrants and Brett Woods
This Argemtinian situation is very disconcerting to me because it is not history that our grandparents can barely remember. It is happening right now! Today! With current leaders (?) and banking corporations and structures.
Yet no one (except us) seems interested.
Is opium engineered into our food supply or what?
I just don't get why people here want to keep their heads in the sand.

Wake up America! The government will not save or protect you! You must take that responsibility for yourself and know that "they" are who you need protection from!

And to top it off, now I guess there's some kind of time limit before I have to start giving my SSN to buy gold? But I thought it was a commodity? If it is a barbarous and worthless relic, why is it treated differently than wheat?

I am really coming to believe that when "they" come knocking on the door (before they kick it in) 99.999% of Americans will still think nothing of it and at that point simply think "I must have done something wrong, for my beloved government to come here".

Do I need shock treatment to fit in with the current groupthink of this country?

O.K., I'm going off, I'll stop.
I guess it's now;
Gold--get you some before it's too late.
YGM
Land Grab By Gov't.....
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/4/23/135321.shtmlSupreme Court Supports Land Grabs.........

Bush White House Backs Land Grabs.........

**Why have many thousands of dollars invested in a piece of land so as to become a caretaker for Federal Gov't or the UN as per their special resolution # -------. It makes more sense to long term lease while awaiting iminent transitions and especially as the real estate bubble expands. When the bubble pops and some form of transition has taken place then and only then will I personally purchase land again.
The less I have to do with the #@%^! system the better I like it! Hidden assets are much more durable and so are those that hold them. IMHO......YGM.
Knallgold
Humour
On the first day of the new school year in Houston, the teacher decided to get to know the kids by asking them to tell their name and what their father does for a living.

The first little girl says: "My name is Mary and my daddy is a postman."
"That's great," says the teacher.

Next a little boy says: "I'm Andy and my Dad is a mechanic."
"Wonderful!" says the teacher.
Then the next kid says: "My name is Jimmy and my father is a striptease dancer in a cabaret for gay men."

The teacher gasps in horror and disbelief and quickly decides to stop this and immediately starts in to math. Later at recess, she pulls Jimmy to the side and privately asks him if it was really true that his Daddy dances nude in a gay bar. He blushes, looks around, and says "No, my Dad is an auditor for Arthur Andersen but I was just too embarrassed to say so."
YGM
UN Land Grab Plot....Scary or Silly?
YGM
The UN Wants to Take Your Land......
http://www.getusout.org/property/index.htm"AND" a hell of alot more!
YGM
Main Index Page....
http://www.getusout.org/un/index.htmI'll get back to my corner of the room now.
YGM
Financial News...
Daily Reckoning E-Mail.Eric Fry on Wall Street...

- Another down day on Wall Street, as more grim news
from the telecom sector ushered stocks lower. The Dow
lost 47 points to close at 10,089, while the Nasdaq
dropped 28 to 1,730. Former telco darling Williams
Communications - following a well-trodden path - filed
for bankruptcy protection yesterday. Meanwhile, the
shares of Ericsson and Worldcom both continued their
death spirals. So far this week, Worldcom has lost about
45% of its remaining market capitalization.

- The devastating two-year bear market in tech and
telecom shows no signs of abating, and yet many of the
analysts who promoted these former high-flyers have
sailed through the devastation relatively
unscathed...until now.

- If Wall Street analysts' careers were traded like
stocks, Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget's career
would have to be downgraded immediately to a "Sell." At
best, it is a "Market Underperform."

- That's because the New York Attorney General Eliot
Spitzer has discovered incriminating internal e-mails
from the superstar Internet analyst in which he trashed
the very same stocks he was recommending in his
"research" reports.

- In one email, written on October 10, 2000, Blodget
described the Internet company 24/7 Media as "a piece of
shit," even though he was publicly recommending the
stock as a "short-term accumulate and long-term
accumulate."

- In effect, Blodget seemed to have established a dual
rating system - one for the gullible public and one for
his buddies.

- Back in the go-go days of October 2000, Blodget
probably thought himself quite clever for encouraging
investors to buy stock in a company that he privately
knew to be a piece of you-know-what. But in the post-
Enron days of April 2002, Blodget's behavior appears to
some folks to have been more criminal than clever.

- The news of Henry Blodget's scandalous emails broke a
few days ago. But it came to light for the first time
yesterday that the Justice Department has taken an
interest in the troubling disparity between the public
Henry and the private Henry.

- Michael Chertoff, the head of the Department's
criminal division, told Bloomberg News that criminal
charges are possible if investigators find that research
analysts tilted their "buy" and "hold" recommendations
to help their firms win investment-banking business. Do
we really need an investigation to answer that question?

- Traditionally, the SEC would be the government agency
responsible for investigating alleged wrongdoings by
Wall Street analysts - not the New York Attorney General
and certainly not the Justice Department.

- But now that the government's big guns have strolled
into the Corruption Corral, Henry Blodget's largest
concern might no longer be whether his annual bonus will
be $2 million or $5 million. Instead, he might find
himself worrying about things like conjugal visits and
getting enough clean pairs of socks.

- Yesterday, I attended the "Grant's Spring Investment
Conference." Given the bearish outlook of most of the
speakers, the "Spring DIS-Investment Conference" might
have been a more appropriate title. Of the eight
presenters at the conference, only one expressed a
bullish thought...and that was about gold.

- In short, it was a vintage Grant's affair, where bears
are welcomed and bulls are tolerated.

- Kicking off the bearish barrage, Charles Peabody, the
contrarian-minded banking analyst at Ventana Capital,
argued that J.P. Morgan Chase might be forced to cut its
dividend before the end of the year and that, therefore,
"the stock might fall into the low 20s."

- Next up, Akio Mikuni, founder of Japan's first
independent bond rating agency, described the unpleasant
string of events that might cause Japanese government
bond yields to skyrocket. Mikuni explained that the bad-
loan situation in Japan remains a very big problem. As
he put it facetiously, "In Japan, charity begins at the
banks."

- Later in the day, James Bianco, president of the
fixed-income research firm that bears his name, took the
podium to explain why the high-growth days at Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac are numbered. He also cautioned that
these two "government-sponsored hedge funds" are much
more vulnerable to rapid changes in interest rates than
most investors appreciate.

- Pierre Lassonde, co-CEO of Newmont Mining, delivered
the lone bullish presentation of the conference.
Predictably, he was bullish about gold...very bullish.
The basis of his conviction is a simple demand and
supply analysis: Investment demand for gold is picking
up from Tokyo to Toledo. Meanwhile, the annual supply of
newly mined gold will be falling steadily over the next
few years.

- Based on the numbers, therefore, Lassonde believes the
yellow metal has entered a new bull phase. (For more,
see: A New Bull Market in Gold)
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2017

- Unfortunately, Lassonde was the only presenter to hand
out a glossy, four-color outline - the kind of pricey,
high-sheen document that a "Global Crossing" or a
"Corning" might have passed around to the attendees of a
high-tech conference in February of 2000.

- As a rule, value investors don't like to see glossy
handouts. That's because, as a rule, bona fide early
bull-market stories are told in black and white...if
they are told at all.

******
Mr Gresham
Econoclast: Mental Gymnastics
Good thoughts. When it's history, people dismiss it: "Oh, that was back then." But when it's happening right now, it's "Oh, that's in Argentina / Japan / Russia / Indonesia."

The closer it gets to themselves, the more difficult it gets to tell themselves a new story -- and since they haven't protected themselves, and their children, with real actions, all they have left is: a new story.

Sure, it feels crazy living in a "doomer story", because the official story is the Pollyanna "don't worry be happy we'll take care of you" story. That works for those who live off the masses.

Actually, evolution built in a portion of the "doomer story". Most people lived only one bad growing season, or bad hunting season, away from starvation. Thus, methods of saving were necessary, and enhanced survival value of both individuals and groups. And that's really all we're about here, at least economically: Saving.

In a land where it has been decreed "There shall be no more rainy days," saving for a rainy day is quite frowned upon, and thought to be in bad taste. Best done quietly, and privately.

Where did I read that most of the elderly in Kazhakstan, or a nearby country, had starved off during the 90s? That happened during our right-now lifetimes, too. Guess those people just didn't care enough to feed them? Or maybe they just had to choose between saving the children and saving the elderly?

It all works quite well, really, until it doesn't.

Pizz
Senarios
Since we've been priviledged to see one poster's vision of the future, thought I'd venture one of my own. Comments and critisizms welcome.

One major rule of business is that the only way you have total control is to have an iron grasp on the money. Nothing else works. Same rule can be applied to nation states.

The United States will protect the banks and the financial markets right to the end. We may have a systemic, rolling banking failure in the works right now. It will hit the U.S. last, but as it spreads thru Japan, it will be hard to surpress the news, and the panic will gain speed.

How will they stop bank runs, cash hording, and financial market collapses?

Call the currency, and at the same time limit new cash to a set amount. This effectively kills the capital now behind the underground economy, they will not follow in Russia's footsteps. (Black markets will develop, but from scratch.) We have rumors the currency has been printed (second rumor of same cash in ten years or so, and I'm leaning towards believing it.)

At the same time they will drastically limit capital outflows from the banks to foreign accounts. Legitimate international business transactions will be closely monitored and HEAVY penalties for violators. Freezing foreign assets (our enemies)and limiting outflows will put a floor under the markets, albeit much, much lower (realistic valuations based.)

Our current dollar and debt markets will have collapsed, and selective international debt will be refuted, and balance paid at cents on the old dollar (it's true value).

Domestic stock market will be down fairly dramatically, but not unmanageable due to the fact that reasonably valued, viable stocks will be as much in demand (maybe more) as bank credits. Banks will be recapitalized by the government, and old dollar debt will be converted to new dollar.

Gold? Controlled and taxed, normally as with any asset (they're starting). The government will not confiscate, still way too little out there to make it cost justifiable, it's extremely high valuation (put your own number in) will preclude too much black market and barter use, since there will not be an overabundance of new cash in circulation. Silver would more than likely be the black market currency of choice, but even it's valuation will be high enough to limit day to day use.

One man's opinion if things get real messy, and subject to change as situations develop. Tough times ahead, but not armeggeddon.

PM's are the best investment out there right now and our goverment just confirmed it with the new reporting laws. They've even given us a short window for unreported buying.



Pizz

YGM
Forbes Sees Canada Using New Currency...
http://www.nationalpost.com/search/story.html?f=/stories/20020420/699336.html&qs=steve%20forbes%20and%20common%20currencyHe predicts a common $ across N America.....

Well given the fact it takes about $1.50 to buy a US $ I'd say Canadians should trade all their Can bucks for Gold here at CPM and at least regain the missed dollar parity if/when this happens. I am jealous of the US $ buying power in Gold vs Canadian, but then I benefited greatly when mining Gold and spending here in Canada....Win some, lose some....Gold---Get some!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted 1800's), also uncirculated $20's from 1877
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

MS61 Graded Liberties

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be...

...Priceless.

Call Centennial for Arrangements or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115

Pizz
Karen Hughes
Anyone else catch Bush's comment yesterday regarding the Hughes departure? He used the term "my government" rather than "our government". Little bit too pompous for even my taste.

Is Hughes gettin out of Dodge before the gunfight?

Pizz
Black Blade
Data suggest recession delivered blow to incomes
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/114/business/Data_suggest_recession_delivered_blow_to_incomes+.shtml
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Last year's recession, currently viewed as the mildest in US history, may not have been so mild after all, some private economists said after looking at new government data yesterday. A state-by-state report released by the Commerce Department showed that Americans' incomes for all of 2001 were considerably smaller than the government had previously estimated in another report on the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health.

''It sounds to me that they are going to have to revise away a lot of last year's growth, and it will turn out that the recession was indeed a recession and was more severe than previously thought,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.


Black Blade: No kidding. These rocket scientists are just figuring this out. Strip away the statistical massage from the BLS and the picture looks even worse.

Black Blade
Saudi troops mass on border
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020423/ap_wo_en_ge/saudi_israel_1≺inter=1Saudi troops mass on border with Jordan following reports of Israeli military buildup

Snippit:

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia has sent eight brigades to its border with Jordan after receiving intelligence reports that Israel was massing troops along the Jordanian border, Saudi officials said Tuesday.

Black Blade: A lot of tension in the ME.
darkhorse
@ Pizz, your 74212
There are some posts that I almost automatically pass by, then there are those that get me to lean a little closer to the screen (due to interest, not just because my eyes are getting older). :) Your posts get the latter response because I noticed you write at a grass roots level with a financial/economic background...I doubt if there are many of your type around. Your last statement of "PM's are the best investment out there right now and our goverment just confirmed it with the new reporting laws. They've even given us a short window for unreported buying." made my day! You put into words what I'd been hoping to hear from somebody other than that little voice in the back of my head. Just confirms my beliefs that most all non-essential buying needs to be put off until a better position in PM's is gained for future use. Thanx! (Now, if I could just get an idea of that future into the wifes head, buying would be a lot easier) :)
Belgian
Crystal Ball
The * nearby * future outcome of 30 years fundamental mismatch is simply *** HYPERINFLATION ***. Nothing else but hyperinflation and there is no need to prognosticate what this overwhelming effect will bring with it. Hyperinflation is the expression / surfacing of such a long period of Permanent Currency Depreciation. Impossible to foresee what measures will be taken...because no one has the slightiest idea of how HYPER this inflation will be. It has been underestimated (managed) for already more than 30 years.
Hyperinflation (yes, HYPER) will be the outcome (solution) for Argentina. Destructive of nature and setting things on the right track again after having adjusted for all tangibles and valuables. All anomalies (artificialities) must be wiped out with that devastating hyperinflation.
The restart will take place after all debt the bulk of speculation has been erased and written off. Than we can go back with real economics and *natural* expansion.

The fact that central banks (Welteke) and institutions (IMF) even dare to suggest that their ultimate reserve should be used (abused) to save us from disaster is mega-significant on itself. Complete desperation. Selling the farm (gold) to keep cattle (currency) alive ? Coming hyperinflation will be swift and no goldsales are going to prevent the unavoidable healing process. There is not enough sand (gold) to hold the dike from breaking. The debtberg ice will melt faster than the evaporation of the water.

Keeping the banks open or closed will have the same effect.
Worthless paper in or out of the bank. Argentina tries to prevent currency printing mania by artificially making confetti scarse. The dollarblock does the same with the VOG. Lock Gold and its Value up, out of sight and unfree !
Force everyone to keep on moving for intrinsically worthless paper.

Hyperinflation is a natural process and the path of least resistance for pulling everything on the right track again.
This Hyper-Storm must have its way and as soon as the wrecks are stranded, life starts again with some major changes, unknown at present. Simply because we have no idea of the storm survivers and their condition. Will it be a new dollar or the euro who will be the fittest ? How much of the productive economical apparatus will have survived the debt reckoning ? And who lied about being able to swim ?

During this process of Hyperinflation nobody will care about VOG rising into the thousands. Everybody will be occupied with the different aspects of his own survival and uncertain future (unemployment and debt). A lot of imaginary prosperity must be wiped out. Fortunes and savings will be lost and other fortunes will be made (The Wheel).

There is nothing as simple as Hyperinflation ! It is a natural resultant of false deflation not having the opportunity to run its full course. Deflation is allowing all BAD debt to default, and this is and will not be the case. Therefore the only natural and unwanted reaction is Hyperinflation less devastating than disciplinairy deflation (default). The enormous excesses of confetti can only burn with massive depreviation. Deflation is NOT currency destructive, on the contrary ! It is not the value of your indebted house that is increasing...it is the artificial strength of the currency given for your house that gives the notion of value, whilts you get unemployed due to default. Better to keep your job and be paid with worthless, depreciating money and keeping your house rising in price whilst keeping the same value. In deflation / default / unemployment...everything dies by suffocation and comes to a virtual standstill. Hyperinflation has the advantage that things keep on moving and selective destruction will take place.

GOLD...don't hesitate too long anymore !

Brett Woods
Gold Argentina 5 Pesos - the Argentino

Thank you MK. Thank you Gandalf the White. And thank you Sir Slingshot, Sir Waverider, and Sir Boilermaker for your support. I am thrilled to have the chance to own a coin of this age, rarity, and quality. I plan to keep it safe and keep it close.

Argentino!!!!!

whew!
Black Blade
NY gold pops higher after econ data, buyers in wings
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020424/markets_precious_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - COMEX gold stretched its gains early Wednesday, with an extra pop in prices after weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods numbers, while floor buzzed about buy orders building up near the recent high. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 0.6 percent in March but were revised up to a 2.7 percent rise in February from a previously report 1.8 percent increase.

``As soon as the number came out we had buying in the gold market,'' said one floor broker. ``We had selling in the copper market and buying in the gold market for who knows what reason. I think it had more to do with the revision of last month.''

In its Gold Survey 2002 released Wednesday, GFMS also said gold miners are expected to reduce their hedge books in the coming months, offering a potential support to world gold prices. Prices first cracked the important $300 level in February, reaching a two-year high helped by major gold producers such as AngloGold aggressively unwinding their hedge books. GFMS estimated that hedging fell for a second consecutive year in 2001, generating a significant 147 tonnes of physical demand, with the fall mainly in the fourth quarter of last year.


Black Blade: As hedges are unwound the demand side increases. Even mega-hedgers Barrick and Placer Dome can't stem this tide of rising demand.

Pizz
Darkhorse
Thanks for the compliment. Didn't think my writing was that transparent. I was a poor country boy, moved to the city, worked my but off blue collar and put myself thru college nights during my 30's. (working on my masters in economics and international finance right here at USA Gold (smile).

I still highly recommend to those so motivated to go back to school at any age. You have to wade thru a lot of extraneous BS, since most teachers don't have a clue how the real world works, but if you have a work backround, especially in a field you're studying, you'll know what to learn and what to ignore and you'll retain a lot more.

Worked for me, but the downside is you don't make too many friends with knowledge and opinions contrary to the establishment. Never was much of a social animal anyway - would prefer to be Trapper's next door neighbor (about a day's walk away).

The best thing about this forum is the synergy of all the posters, their sources, and what we pick up and interpret. There's enough clues out there to give us a bit of a head start on the rest of the world. Black Blades comment regarding economists and last years recession which is in the process of being reevaluated is a prime example. We already pretty much know.

Pizz
Sierra Madre
Belgian: great message, No. 74219!

Yours is a very perceptive post, clear and reflective of reality. Both deflation and inflation (hyperinflation) are painful but perhaps the least painful is hyperinflation. At least we get to go to the poorhouse in a car, on the last gallon in the tank.

You wrote: "Everybody will be occupied
with the different aspects of his own survival and uncertain future (unemployment and debt). A lot of imaginary prosperity
must be wiped out. Fortunes and savings will be lost and other fortunes will be made (The Wheel)."

You are quite right about this. When things get real, real bad, and people don't know where the next meal is coming from, they become very docile. They don't riot at all. They are scared and worried and don't have time to go to riots, nor the energy. They will do what they are told in return for just about anything to live on. This has been MY EXPERIENCE, I am not talking about theory.

Gold has gone in Mexico, where I live, from $510 pesos for a $50 peso goldpiece (about 1.2 oz) to some $3,600,000 pesos for the same piece. Nobody seems to notice or care about this. Great bankers of yesterday are nobodys today. Fact!! As you say, "the wheel turns".

Today I learn that all Argentina is up for sale. Want to buy bargains? Antiques? Libraries? Mansions? Just fly down and take your pick, pay into a Miami bank account. Carpetbagging, it is called. Not my style, but some can pick up beautiful and valuable things for a little money, which is desperately needed by Argentinians right now.

Sierra
luckypierre
Reporting Laws
Pizz, you mentioned new reporting laws in one of your posts. I haven't seen any reference to them elsewhere, and would like some more detail. Can you give us a summary of them?

Luckypierre
Pippin
Interesting source of charts and data
http://www.topline-charts.com/Just an interesting link I wanted to share with the Forum.
Black Blade
Markets in the Red

The market indices are negative, but expect a last half hour push to force the indices into the black.

Oil and NG are lower. Oil inventories are down but gasoline inventories rose. NG is lower on a very strong rise in inventory (+69 bcf)in spite of lower production. It appears that the economic environment across the landscape is crashing. It appears that business across America is very bad and energy supply is growing due to a severe economic recession. Gold will have to rise on such a dismal economic prognosis.

- Black Blade
Solomon Weaver
Reuters noticing gold.
String of uncertainties put shine back in golds
April 24, 2002 3:46:00 PM ET


By Frank Pingue

TORONTO, April 24 (Reuters) - North American gold shares were in strong demand on Wednesday as bullion prices firmed on concerns over Middle East jitters and Japan's faltering economy.

Analysts said gold prices are well placed to rise this year, encouraged by investors' desire to shelter from global political and economic uncertainties.

"The fact that golds react to news reinforces the fact that there is a safe haven in golds and that is why we're seeing equities and bullion perform so well," said Barry Cooper, an analyst with CIBC Wood Gundy Inc.

"Also, people have been looking for alternative investments and, since gold has been out of favor for so long, they feel it is due for a turnaround."

Tensions in the Middle East following Israel's incursion into the West Bank and U.S. warnings about military action against Iraq have prompted investors to look to gold to diversify their portfolios.

Japan is dealing with an ongoing recession, but a Reuters poll of 28 economists feel an uneven recovery lies ahead, driven almost entirely by exports and overshadowed by rising unemployment.

Analysts are also content with a wave of consolidation in the gold mining industry which they say is resulting in the closing of inefficient mines in favor of high-grade and high-margin operations.

On the Toronto Stock Exchange, home to some of the world's largest gold miners, the gold and precious minerals index was ahead 1.49 percent on Wednesday afternoon.

So far in 2002, Canadian gold stocks have gained 27 percent.

Shares of Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) were higher on Wednesday as investors applauded the company's ability to produce improved earnings on rising gold prices and strong cost controls even though its production levels fell.

The shares rose 57 Canadian cents, or 3 percent, to C$19.67 on the TSE and were up 28 cents, or 2.3 percent at $12.52 in New York.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) shares trekked higher one day after the world's second-biggest gold producer said a $6 million investment in a remote property high in the mountains of Peru had netted it one of its most significant gold discoveries of the past decade.

Shares of Barrick rose 44 Canadian cents, or 1.5 percent, to C$30.48 in Toronto, and climbed 43 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $19.43 in New York.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the world's biggest gold company, was up 3 cents at $29.27 in New York.

On the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, the benchmark XAU North American gold and silver mining index , rose 0.8 percent to 74.31, its highest level since October 1999.

The XAU index is up about 37 percent in 2002, compared with a 1 percent gain in the Dow Jones industrial average .

($1=$1.57 Canadian) REUTERS

� 2002 Reuters


Aristotle
Chatting with Belgian
Did you see Black Blade's #74221 Reuters report? Of special interest was this part of it.

---START---
``As soon as the number came out we had buying in the gold market,'' said one floor broker. ``We had selling in the copper market and buying in the gold market for who knows what reason.''
----END----

Not very enlightening by itself, but it got me thinking in more general terms, and I wanted your thoughts -- especially after your excellent commentary on hyperinflation as the socially preferred expedient (to deflation) to work out monetary excesses.

My thinking is that people, in general, are far smarter than discussion groups tend to give them credit for, and that these same people -- in both their professional and personal capacities -- will tend to act in such a way that most benefits their future self interest.

To that end, what we may take for granted here as some sort of "elite knowledge" regarding the benefits of Gold ownership -- as things, shall we say, heat up -- may not be so unique to a small group of Goldbugs (sorry for the term) after all. Just as a Goldbug (sorry) will justifiably contemplate selling his various assets, selling his labor, and selling his money for the purchase of Gold, as the economic writing on the wall gets written bigger and bolder for all to see, it really shouldn't surprise us to see similar activity from the (smart and self-interested) public at large. Ahead of the approaching storm it doesn't take long to evaluate ones holdings of excess or idle assets (certain land, copper, silver, contracts, stocks, bonds, cash, grains, inventory whatever) with an eye toward selling them in order to buy the one thing that will best help them come through these hot hyperinflationary winds seen building now on the horizon.

Here's an interesting thought. If people are looking at a generalized price index as their windspeed indicator (aerometer???) to mark the storm's arrival, couldn't the advanced selling pressure of real things give a temporary false signal of calm as prices come under selling pressure even as the torrents of invisible currency begin to swirl and mount? Even COMEX Gold contracts would be sold! Price discovery being what it is for Gold, only the rising premium per ounce on the delivered goods would send accurate signals of the arrival of the storm's first wave.

Building on the previous paragraph, there's a facet I'd like your opinion on (or Miner49er, or Mr. Gresham, or John Doe, etc etc). Would it be possible for a society to lessen the real economic damage of a hyperinflationary workout by channeling all practical monies through the course of the storm into Gold? As current production, idle assets (both real and finanancial) and excess inventories are sold off in the rush for Gold, the price of Gold could truly run to the stars even as the price levels of other goods and services are kept, generally speaking, to modest historical levels albeit with the all the necessary relative pricing adjustments and shifts in asset ownership to facilitate the overall financial reckoning imperative for the times.

The process and resulting price adjustments would result in a more proper perception of Gold's value based merely on its physical merits as a scarce resource -- an asset that no savings-minded person should be without. Gone forever would be the illusion that bullion banking deposits and their body of derivative contracts were in any way akin to the real thing.

If, indeed, the aggregate economic dislocations and adjustments resulting from a hyperinflationary workout could be kept minimal (to the fullest extent PRACTICABLE) through a channeling of the hypermonetary hyperenergy into Gold as a means to absorb the impact, wouldn't it be conceivable that a forward-thinking group of economic advisors or central bankers would in early warnings counsel precisely this approach so that the political leaders of their threatened society could take steps to engender such an inevitable workout -- directed into Gold?

It seems to me from all the signs coming in that we're "on the road" like it or not. And IIIIIIII LIKE IT!

Thanks for your time and thoughts.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
neer-do-well
pizz
Yeah I caught the "my government" remark. Has a different meaning when he says it or I says it.

I think he was forced to fire her, she probably gave him some of that tough talk to the Israels, sort of miss-read the tea leaves. He will be lost without her, his confidence is on it's way to Texas.

Prince Abdulall, ahem, is the kind of guy George can relate to, somebody with princely clout, his political ideal. Trouble is its across the table from him. I wonder if Chenny will be able to blunt what the prince came here to say? NO WAR with Iraq most likely.

The end game discussed here yesterday had some interesting points. I wrote a senario very much like it 10 years ago. Doing the same thing today I'd be much less optomistic. The American people are even dumber now and so self-rightous, when the SHTF they will regress to the 7 year old level. They don't question themselves, nor anything else of substance.
Simply Me
@Sierra Madre RE:(04/24/02; 12:31:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74223)
Sierra Madre:"Today I learn that all Argentina is up for sale. Want to buy bargains? Antiques? Libraries? Mansions? Just fly down and take your pick, pay into a Miami bank account. Carpetbagging, it is called. Not my style, but some can pick up beautiful and valuable things for a little money, which is desperately needed by Argentinians right now."

My response: Don't bother with the antiques and libraries. Watch who's buying commodities and utilities...electric plants or service lines, water and gas pipelines, mines, etc. They want the gov't and the people by "the short hairs".

Enjoy your thought provoking posts,
Simply
slingshot
Thought Provoking Posts.
Which one buys more Gold? Yepper , there is one heck of a full moon. The forum is now divided into two camps. On one side TEOTWAWKI and on the other we are in for some hard bumps. If you think the end is near your extreme. If you do not, you have your head in the sand. So who buys more gold? Bunker mentality or ostrich
hide and go seek? Now I'm a few degrees off center and with all the things happenning in the world I would say that Bunkers buy more gold at this time. Just because they seem to buy everything.
Slingshot
Pizz
luckypierre
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/economy_treasury_terror_1.htmlPM reporting requirements as part of terrorist money laundering precautions.

I'm having a hard time buying this in the name of terrorists. We already have some pretty good cash laundering laws already for cash transactions in excess of 10,000 which was done to curb drug dealing. Hasn't worked for drugs, why will it work for terror?

Must have another use in mind - but if I ever have to cash in my PM's, tax evasion or withholding won't be my first concern, (or 100th for that matter).

Pizz
Max Rabbitz
Pizz and Neer-do-well on Bush
If true I suspect that Bush simply mis-spoke...again. He probably meant to say "my administration" not "my government." He certainly knows he's not getting his way with ANWAR, court appointments and lots more. Bush is not alone in sloppy wording. Remember the press saying there was a "shadow government" when what was described was just part of the executive branch of government? If I have to choose I'd prefer mis-speaking to a slick wordsmith. George is going to miss that lady advisor of his but I sympathize with her. I wouldn't want to live anywhere near D.C. at this time. What percentage of trucks crossing the Mexican border are checked? 5%? Probably the same for Canada. Remember that the INS gave a student visa to Mohamed Ata 3 months after 911. Time for more gold.



CoBra(too)
No Topic - Actually ....
Scanning the last century - rapidly - the old hegemon Europe had self destructed in two WW's. The former colonials stepped in and filled the vacuuum - as well building up the new $ - Hegemon.

And at the end of the 'cold war' an unchallenged and only global "Superpower" resulted. Including the $-Hegemony, supremacy of the also unchallenged printing press - as the sole safe haven ideology, by simultaneously degrading the only challenge - gold as money. Or even worse - degrading any real asset in terms of the Superpower's prowess to price finding truism's - or better intrigues via derivatives, hiding under the oblique risk management boutique. A li'l old shop, having outmaneuvred the global GDP manifold!

... While it's true - the US technological armory is not to be smitten in the forseeable future - and 911 helped the status of the US and - Russia, as Putin was fast to see the win-win situation - the EU is on no basis to dispute the hegemony ... alas, and true, only by their economy and the euro.

Though not disputing the global political clout, the economical equation is starting to equalize the hegemon. And even if the political will is not yet standardized ... the EU convent and the will to establish a legal, i.e. democratically legitimized Constitution for the EU - where-ever it may end to the East - may at some day present a challenge to the US of A.

That's not to say, that the EU does not accept the hegemon, though in the longer range every hegemon has found its selfdestructing demon.

As long has the hegemon is still capable of reigning in its
serfs - hyperinflation will not happen. The question remains - for how long can the hegemon keep up the delusion?- In view of what is destroying the illusion - on a daily basis - not Argentina, nor Enron ... the growing numbers of personal defaults ... IMHO ...

cb2 - and much more to add - sad - gettin' late - more tomorrow - though maybe 'nough said!


TownCrier
HEADLINE: Dollar falls as market eyes investment shift
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/24/rtr581515.htmlNEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar buckled to three-month lows against the euro and the Swiss franc and set a one-month trough against the yen Wednesday as investors reconsidered the once-unrivalled lure of U.S. assets.

The dollar has been under broad pressure this month, amid fears that a global economic recovery will prompt international investors to reconsider their love-affair with U.S. assets, and look elsewhere for better returns.
----------

John Hazelton, director forex at PNC Bank, alludes to the future threat everpresent from our dollar "overhang": "There's no huge demand to sell it off, but people are long dollars around the world, they've been buying for so many years," he said.

In a world awash in currencies, gold ownership puts you on a firm and independent footing.

R.
YGM
Timeline To Global Governance.......
http://www.sovereignty.net/timeline.htmlA link for those so inclined to know the history to date of what the elder Bush and other high profile people such as Walter Cronkite, Kissinger etc call 'One World Gov' or the much dreaded NWO......If you don't like hearing about it don't go there...Quite simple really. We all have choices & the right of self expression here, especially when posting links that will & do relate to our topic of Gold ownership.

"GO GATA" "GO GOLD & GO PHYSICAL"


"MY BEST @ HIPPLEBECK" in your search for answers. It's a tough trail. I know I'm still on it & the end seems no closer......Respectfully......YGM.
YGM
This Link is Relative to my Previous one.....
http://freedom.org

Quote:

F.A. Harper, who said: "the man who knows what freedom means will find a way to be free."
Belgian
The 1001 different Goldrushes !?
Who (1) is buying what (2) Gold and when (3) ?
Jewelry / Investment / Speculative Gold, are 3 different kinds of Gold. Officials (CBs-Institutions) / Gold-traders / The General Public / Gold-Holders are 4 different groups of Gold-philes.
The POG/VOG alternates as a result of the actions of the above amalgame of actors and actions.
A POG-trend is initiated by different people for different reasons and VOG will be exposed by other Gold groups for a series of other reasons. Yes, indeed, rather complicated and surely hectic for no other reason that Gold has been freed only partially (fractionally) for such a short period of 30 years (1971).

So, pinpointing who moved POG when and for what reason is looking for a needle in the haystack. Don't search the net for information of WHO is buying/trading Gold in what form and for what purpose. The Gold-Enigma ! The very secrecy of Gold ! It is only our collective intelligency that can give this trade some logic content, but alas without much evidence.

All these different Gold-Actors with all these different strategies and timings, alternating during the prevailing circumstances. All this ultra secrecy leaves us with only POG-behavior (price-pattern) as only handle. POG is the resultant of all forces working on the VOG. Please do realize that 30 years is just a bit more than one generation (25 years). Just enough of a time lapse to have Gold ready to respond to new filosophies. Less and less price for more and more Value orientation.

The discovery phases of the awaiting Hyperinflation to become expressed are different for the multitude of Gold-Actors. But all have one red line in common : Pricebehavior ! Price-patterns glued on the shift to Valuation, away from pure pricing.

Private holders of tonnes (or/and ounces) of Physical become interested in Gold RE-Valuation, when the confetti generating machine slows down. Official Gold-Reserve managers have other agendas and timing, all in function of the intrinsic value of the reserve fiat (dollar). All other traders are price-momentum swingers.

It is TG who managed to change my idea about Gold as follows : The past 30 years POG had its cycles/waves organized by the main private Physical Gold holders (25.000 tonnes)+ Official interventions (32.000 tonnes). The core faction within those 55.000 tonnes were orchestrating the price of total above (144.000 mt) + underground reserves.

In '95/'96, something changed dramatically and purposely.
The cyclic/waving pattern changed into a concerted linear decline, also for a purpose and a reason, no other than the euro becoming a reality. The different main Gold-Actors started to change their vieuw on the precious. Price was and still is increasingly evolving to Value, anticipating pro-activily the later inevitable expression of the building Hyperinflation with great consequences for the dollar. The pr� 1971 syndrome awakened around '95/'96.

The postponement of the dollar-execution with linear POG decline had a pleasant side effect for the "PRIVATE" traditional Gold Holders *MOVERS* (not the ouncers or carateers). THEY WERE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE MORE OF THE PRECIOUS AT ALL TIME OBSCENE PRICES !! Exactly the same big classical moves that absolute rulers organize to plunder and loot the ones wich they managed to weaken (cfr. Argentina). That's how real big and voracious money operates and always will.

The modern derivative-leverages are able to flattening out any accidental period of disturbing Gold accumulation by small fish (we and the japanese or others). The derivative tools have replaced the containing effect of the pr� 1971 Gold-standard (London Gold Pool) and resulted in another form of unfree Gold. Lucky dollar ! For this reason the natural and intuitive Gold Accumulation (by the public)against the permanent currency depreciation has been softly and progressively murdered (20 years from 1981 ATH of POG).
Is this intuitive selfdefense Gold-reaction still operative ? Yes, but very subdued / tempered. What will awaken this old adjusting reflex ? A combination of factors enhanced by strong price signals and a progressive RE-understanding of Gold's VALUE. It is against this combination of evolving fundamentals and price behavior that I base my Technical Interpretations. And imvvvvho, it looks GREAT for the time being ! And this ongoing process can NOT be aborted anymore. RE-Valued Gold in the future will not change man's (general public) behavior. Once VOG is set completely FREE, other abuses and falsifications will re-appear and create other discrepancies (Cycles).

Please note that this only by intuition and I don't have lead heavy evidence for it. Just trying to get under the skin of these Big Gold Holders (Giants) and guess how they feel and act with their 12 Kg bars. This must certainly be completely different than us with our fists of coins.
And let us not forget that there must be fundamentally different Giants (oil/non oil). Once Official Goldreserves abandon their extended management (falsification) of the floating currency circus...they will certainly encourage the full REVALUATION of ALL Gold to its true proportions!
Matter of abandon the confetti ship, Gold first and Hyperinflation rocketing together with Gold's momentum.
It will not NOT stop at 600$ !!! Because a stop at 600$ is evidence of the previous cycle/wave system re-installed ! No way ! This time it is different from the past 30 years and analog to 5.000 years of Gold history.

CoBra(too)
@ Belgium, Sir ...
... Would it be in-appropriate to ask if you'd be one
of those giants, who's footsteps may only be followed by the chosen few?

... and please, dear Sir, don't ever take this meek remark as criticis'm as I only wear 42 (8 1/2), I believe in shoe size ... somit lebe ich auf kleinem Fuss, oder?

Kidding aside, Sir B., I for one, more than appreciate your
views, though I'd be grateful if you could leave a li'l leeway for the strays - as they're apt to be homin' in before the adept chosen few, who have still to split the Red Sea - a time consuming chore.

Oh, well, whom do I tell - as the global politics lead to hell - I'd rather sell all paper for the millennial proven value of gold ... VOG - as B says - yes - und Nichts f�r Ungut mein Freund B. - CB2

Golden Bear
Belgian (msg#: 74219) Crystal Ball, Aristotle (msg#: 74228) Chatting with Belgian
Greetings Belgian, Aristotle,

Belgian,

One of the best summaries I have read on the relative definitions of hyperinflation vs deflation, and how the world scenario might play out. Bravo!

Aristotle,

you stated:

"If, indeed, the aggregate economic dislocations and adjustments resulting from a hyperinflationary workout could be kept minimal (to the fullest extent PRACTICABLE) through a channeling of the hypermonetary hyperenergy into Gold as a means to absorb the impact, wouldn't it be conceivable that a forward-thinking group of economic advisors or central bankers would in early warnings counsel precisely this approach so that the political leaders of their threatened society could take steps to engender such an inevitable workout -- directed into Gold?"

The very fact of Gold's scarcity will make it extremely difficult for those in power to minimize the destruction of wealth across the board. As fiat money evaporates in value, the stampede will begin into Gold - millions of people scrambling to get any scraps of PM's they can lay their hands on - sudden fierce contraction of the money supply (as gold becomes the new money). Isn't this the true definition of Deflation, as the value of all other commodities and assets collapse as the value of money (gold) soars?

My simple mind cannot see how they would contain the damage - how do you stop an avalanche?

Cheers.
R Powell
Thanks to someone?
My local library called saying that a copy of "Silver Bulls" by Paul Sarnoff had been located for me.
The book jacket says Arlington House Publishers and the special tag on the book from the library lending it to our Cape Cod library association tells me it came from the Robbins Library in Arlington, MA. Anyway, it took some time to arrive and now I've forgotten who recommended it. I haven't begun yet other than the table of contents (chapter headings) but it looks very interesting.

Much of what I'm hearing of the situation in Argentina reminds me of what was described by Ferguson in "When Money Dies" which is also out of print but worth looking for. Now we hear talk of antiques and other possessions selling for cheap by people desperate for acceptable currency. Ferguson wrote of one city dwelling woman who traded a baby grand piano to a farmer for one pig and enough sacks of potatos (no e in potato) to feed her family through the winter. About this time workers demanded daily wage payment and spent the money on their way home while it could still buy something. Sometimes the cost of a restaurant meal increased between the time it was ordered and the time the bill was paid! Checks were no longer accepted by anyone for anything as their value depreciated so much before they could be cashed. Foreign currency and gold and silver were the most acceptable "money".
Out of print, hard to find books which now seem so pertainent and relevent. Is this a positive contrarian indicator?
Internet or no, I still love book reading. Who am I suppose to be thanking?
Rich
John Doe
Aristotle

Aristotle: "Would it be possible for a society to lessen the real economic damage of a hyperinflationary workout by channeling all practical monies through the course of the storm into Gold?"

An interesting question, and one I've considered myself. In practical terms, I don't believe isolating the effects of such a conversion is possible. I sense that the prices of many items are tied directly or indirectly to the price of gold, almost certainly this is the case with world oil pricing. And if oil moves with gold, so will everything else.

Certainly, to "channel" excess fiat issuance into ANY particular destination, even a deserving medium such as gold, would be tantamount to the further continuation of anti-free-market manipulations. Isn't this, more or less, what has been occurring with, first, the tech bubble, then the general market, and now residential real estate? The system-minders do all in their power to enact debt origination, minimize carrying costs, and grant tax preference to "certain" areas so that the system continues to expand unnaturally and uneconomically to the detriment of the market mechanism, negating the correct and instructive signals the market system would render. Likewise, a manipulation of fiat debt-load into gold will subvert the market, create an immense gold bubble leading to a collapse of that bubble, and further hobble the correct functioning of the market economy and any possibility of returning to functioning markets and free-market fiduciary media.

I believe in ending the rigging, including the endless collusive rigging of the government-banking cartel. I believe in letting everyone, every bank, and every government taking their lumps, more or less cold turkey, with just punishment meted out to the criminal actors and a return to free-market principles. And if gold benefits in this work out, so be it.

In short, directing money flows into gold to stem a general hyperinflation is most likely not only impossible, but counterproductive as well. That's not to imply that the system-minders wouldn't do it or try to when the time comes. Because they will if they can call the shots (they can), profit from it (they will), and be in a better (or at least recoverable) position from running gold to the moon�and part way back. This is essentially what happened in the 70's, though on a smaller scale and look where it's led us.
Arcticfox
Market wrap up...Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmWednesday's Stock Market WrapUp

MIXED MESSAGES

The much-heralded second half recovery is starting to amass a few more critics. The army of disbelievers is starting to grow. If the recovery is supposed to be on track, it certainly isn't showing up in the numbers. The plethora of earnings reports over these last few weeks is turning out to be less than stellar. In fact, many now question whether Wall Street has been much too optimistic and premature in forecasting an earnings turn around. Instead of a 7-8% downturn in earnings this past quarter, it looks like that number will be closer to 11-12% before this reporting season is over. Companies reporting so far have given no indication that things are about to miraculously improve this quarter. The best that can be said is the downturn in profits this quarter isn't as bad as the last quarter. Therefore, things must be getting better.

The problems for the stock market lie in market valuations. At the moment they are priced at perfection. Price earnings multiples of 45-60 imply growth rates that are unachievable in today's highly competitive market. Companies are saddled with high debt, which has increased interest expense eating into the bottom line. In addition to higher labor, raw material, and energy costs, companies lack pricing power in the marketplace. This limits their ability to recoup rising prices thereby reducing profit margins. In addition to lower profit potential the inherent risks in the market place is causing risk premiums to rise with investors demanding a higher return to compensate for additional risks. This translates into lower PE multiples for the same dollar in earnings. The market is resolute in its punishment of companies who fail to deliver high potential earnings growth. This is very much evident in the fall in the market's generals.

The large cap stocks that led the 90's bull market have all fallen on hard times. If you look at any graph of the market leaders such as IBM, GE, Microsoft, Cisco, and Dell, one thing is obvious -- market capitalization has fallen precipitously. With falling market caps and closer scrutiny of financial statements, companies have been deprived of their main source for growing earnings, which is rising stock prices. In the past, rising market caps reflected in inflated stock prices allowed companies to use their stock as currency for making acquisitions. This became a dependable source of earnings growth. The ability to buy sales and earnings became the chief engine for growth during the final boom years of the 90's bull market.

Those acquisitions are now starting to come home to roost as one company after another is forced to write off those expensive acquisitions through impairment charges. In addition to higher interest rate expense, impairment charges is one of the main factors hurting earnings this year. Without the ability to acquire earnings and with financial engineering now frowned upon by analysts and regulators, an important source of earnings growth has been removed from the market. This makes Wall Street consensus estimates highly suspect. There aren't any catalysts around that would create the miracles imbedded in the Street's second half recovery. In fact, the possibility for improvement in earnings has already dissipated. In the last recession, earnings rose slowly until the Fed brought down interest rates. As rates fell, companies refinanced their debt, lowering interest rate costs. This contributed to the boost in profits during the early part of the decade following the 1991 recession.

This option has already been exploited during the unprecedented interest rate cuts of last year. As the Fed cut the federal funds rate 11 times, companies used the opportunity to refinance their debt. In many cases, companies also took on more debt as cash flows dried up from a lack of real profits. Instead of unloading debt, companies actually took on new debt, adding additional interest expenses on to the income statement. The current high level of debt has been one of the main reasons profits have been so dismal outside of the impairment charges from writing off goodwill.

Today was another example of the earnings woes facing major companies. AOL Time Warner reported a loss of $54.2 billion, the biggest in US history, in costs associated with its purchase of Time Warner last year. The loss was up from the $.37 billion the company lost the year before. AOL's monstrous loss was followed by AT&T, which reported its fifth consecutive quarterly loss. The biggest long-distance telephone company said its losses widened during the current quarter to $975 million from $192 million a year ago. Sales slipped 11% for the fifth consecutive quarter. The company went on to say that long-distance sales would decline by 20% this year. AT&T's CEO, Michael Armstrong, is trying to pare back the debt from his reckless acquisition spree and prepare the company for a possible sale. It is likely the company may not survive the year before it is sold off to a much stronger and well-capitalized competitor.

Jean Marie Messier, the CEO of Vivendi Universal, faced angry shareholders and protestors at the company's annual shareholder meeting. The company reported a record loss for 2001 because of acquisitions made over the last year. Shareholders have seen their share price drop over 38% as investors have lost confidence in management's strategy to boost earnings.

Tensions in the Middle East persist, and the crisis in Argentina is far from being over. Argentine President Duhalde may fix the exchange rate bid for the Argentine peso in an effort to avert a banking collapse. Setting the rate at 3.5 peso's per dollar would make it more difficult for Argentina to get $20 billion in IMF aid. The government is refusing to cut spending, change labor laws, or take steps to cut the government's deficit. The government refuses to go on a diet and is looking for outside money to continue its profligate spending.

On the economic front, it looks like the recovery is starting to stall. On Wednesday several economic reports show mixed signs for the economy. Durable goods fell by 0.6% last month versus an expected increase of 0.1%. Excluding heavy spending on defense by government, durable goods actually fell by 1.2%. While inventory levels continue to be worked down, there is no sign on the horizon that businesses are increasing their spending. If it wasn't for defense spending by government, the declines each month over the last few quarters would be much greater.

Another report out today showed new home sales fell in March following a big surge in February. The Commerce Department reported new home sales fell by 3.1% last month to an annual rate of 878,000 units. Although the sale of new homes is getting softer, economists still hold on to beliefs that the housing sector will remain strong throughout the year. However, experts don't agree. The pace and sale of new construction isn't sustainable.

The plethora of worries from earnings to Middle East tensions caused an early morning rally to fizzle. At the end of the day all the major indexes were in the red. The tech-laden Nasdaq came close to hitting a six month low. Volume was moderate with 1.35 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.88 billion on the Nasdaq. Market breadth was negative with losers beating out winners by 16 to 15 on the New York Stock Exchange and by a wider 19 to 16 margin on the Nasdaq. Just about all sectors pulled back today led by natural gas, oil, retail and paper. The only standout was airlines, which rose on analysts� upgrades.

Treasury Market
Government bonds rallied after a tentative start, with the morning's softer-than-expected data giving investors a reason to bid up fixed-income securities. The 10-year Treasury note advanced 14/32 to yield 5.105% and the 30-year government bond rose 22/32 to yield 5.615%.

Overseas Market
European stocks fell, led by Royal Dutch Petroleum Co. and other oil companies, which dropped with crude. Ericsson and Nokia Oyj slid for the fifth day amid concern about demand for their phone equipment and handsets. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index fell for the fifth day, dropping 12.84 points, or 0.4% to 3555.03. Only three of the eight major European markets were up during today's trading.

Japanese stocks fell led by Tokyo Electron Ltd. on mounting signs that upcoming earnings from major computer related companies won't justify the 25% they gained as a group in the past 11 weeks. The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 0.5% to 11,672.88. The Topix index lost 0.5% to 1098.72.

� Copyright, Jim Puplava, April 24, 2002

CoBra(too)
@ R. Powell
Hello, Rich ... I'm only responding because of my good old friend Paul Sarnoff - who's passed away - and can't ever be replaced - in his unique way. - And to the end he was answering any question put to him - always gallantly! One of the true and blue gold advocates - even with a book called 'Superleverage' ... cb2



Arcticfox
Don't know if anyone posted this yet......
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020423/economy_consumers_abc_1.htmlTuesday April 23, 6:31 pm Eastern Time
Reuters Securities
ABC/Money-U.S. consumer confidence drops sharply on week

NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - A weekly measure of U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply last week as the faith of Americans in the economy recovery appeared to falter, the ABC News/Money Magazine poll indicated on Tuesday.


ABC/Money said its Consumer Comfort Index slipped to negative 5 in the latest survey from positive 1 in the prior week, one of the steepest drops on record. The index ranges from positive 100 to negative 100.

The decline was roughly in line with a decrease in confidence seen in the University of Michigan's more closely watched index of consumer sentiment.

That index fell in March to 94.4 from 95.7 in February as a rise in March unemployment and violence in the Mideast weighed on Americans' outlook on the future, the University of Michigan said last week.

In the ABC/Money poll, the number of Americans who believe the economy is in good shape right now fell three percentage points to 41 percent. That component stands at just over half a high of 80 percent touched during the last boom, in January 2000.

The survey's buying climate gauge, which measures consumers' willingness to part with their cash, fell to 41 percent from 45 percent.

Sixty percent of consumers rated their personal finances as excellent or good, down three percentage points from the preceding week.

The ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide each month. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.

This week's results are based on 1,000 interviews taken over four weeks ended April 21.

Arcticfox
Recession or not...
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/114/business/Data_suggest_recession_delivered_blow_to_incomes+.shtmlData suggest recession delivered blow to incomes


By Associated Press, 4/24/2002

ASHINGTON - Last year's recession, currently viewed as the mildest in US history, may not have been so mild after all, some private economists said after looking at new government data yesterday.



A state-by-state report released by the Commerce Department showed that Americans' incomes for all of 2001 were considerably smaller than the government had previously estimated in another report on the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health.

Some private economists believe the lower estimate of personal incomes - a component in calculating the GDP - will result in a significant downward revision to GDP for all of 2001. Last year, the economy, already slumping when it was jolted by the Sept. 11 terror attacks, grew by just 1.2 percent, a big slowdown from 4.1 percent increases posted in 1999 and 2000.

Each year, the government revises estimates of GDP for certain periods, based on more complete data. It will release annual benchmark revisions for 2001, along with 1999 and 2000, on July 31.

Yesterday's report showed that incomes grew 3.7 percent in 2001, while the most recent GDP report, released in March, said incomes rose 4.9 percent. The difference of 1.2 percentage points works out to $90 billion.

''It sounds to me that they are going to have to revise away a lot of last year's growth, and it will turn out that the recession was indeed a recession and was more severe than previously thought,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

Even if that turns out to be the case, private economists said, it doesn't change the widespread belief that the economy is now recovering from a recession that began in March 2001.

Steve Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, wouldn't comment on potential revisions. But he did say the initial estimates in the GDP reports included assumptions the government makes about wages and salaries that often get revised.

Sung Won Sohn, Wells Fargo's chief economist, said he didn't believe the lower personal income figures were significant. ''I don't think it will change the conclusion that we had the mildest recession during the postwar period.''

Zandi said it's possible that GDP in the second quarter of last year, which grew at an anemic rate of 0.3 percent, could be revised into negative territory. That would mean the economy shrank during the period.

Black Blade
Gold on edge of 'new era'
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BA500629E38?OpenDocument
Snippit:


GFMS said the crux of gold's recovery, which culminated in the metal bursting through the $300 per ounce barrier, was the net decline in producer hedging. This was, in turn, influenced by the less favourable contango, corporate activity and expectations of higher prices. These factors would probably keep hedging down and keep shorts out the market in the future, Walker said. Producer hedging declined for a second consecutive year generating 147 tons of physical demand with the fall most pronounced in the fourth quarter, GFMS said.

The other important factor was the swing to reinvestment among gold investors. Total world reinvestment by gold investors was 235 tons in 2001, compared to disinvestment of 26 tons in 2000 (and a positive 558 tons in 1999). "Let's call this a bull market, although a modest one at the moment," Walker said. Implied net disinvestment fell dramatically to just 53 tons last year, owing to a sharp decline in physical sales by private investors in Europe and North America.


Black Blade: Gold Bears are falling over themselves as they rush to become Gold Bulls. Of course the big turning points in Gold have been the "Japanese Gold Rush" and the end of any significant hedging.

Black Blade
Survey: Gold shows more upside
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1172721,00.html
Snippit:

London - Prospects of increasing investor interest and declining producer hedge books continue to support the gold price despite weak fabrication demand, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services' Gold Survey 2002, released on Wednesday.

Black Blade: Yet another Bullish Gold article.
Black Blade
Dubai greedy for gold trade
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1172642,00.html

Snippit:

Dubai - Dubai, the self-styled "city of gold", on Wednesday launched a metal and commodities centre for trading gold, diamonds and key commodities with an initial goal of securing half of the global gold trade.

The Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC) will be a free zone offering 100% ownership and a 50-year tax holiday to resident companies, DMCC financial advisor Hamid Kazim told a press conference.

The centre will offer physical trading facilities, storage, hallmarking, package and delivery facilities, a training centre and a gems lab, as well as "transparency, flexibility and a regulatory environment of international standard," said Kazim.



Black Blade: All for a barbarous relic. I wonder how this will fit in with the US Government claims of terrorist financing. Hmmm�
Arcticfox
Look what just happened in Japan..
Black Blade
Worldwide worries raise gold price expectations
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1172166,00.html
Snippit:

London - Political and economic uncertainty in the world and strong market fundamentals have led gold experts to lift their price forecasts for the metal, analysts said on Tuesday. But analysts caution that the metal will have to stay above $300 for a sustained period and break through a new trading level to continue to attract buyers.

"Gold cannot carry on treading water at the $303 mark... Even $305 is not going to keep investors holding on to long positions," said Kevin Crisp, director of global commodities research at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.


Black Blade: If Gold can establish $300.00/oz. As a floor, then it should begin moving higher soon. Over the last 24 hours (NY close) � Gold attempted to break through the $305.00/oz. 14 times before being pushed back.

Trurl
better link for gold reporting requirement changes
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/po3034.htm
Here's a link to the US Treasury site which has slightly more details about new gold reporting regulations.

snippit:

The Department is also exercising its authority to defer, for a period of no more than six months, the application of section 352 to the remaining categories of financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act to allow Treasury time to study these new industry sectors and develop regulations applicable to them.

The business sectors subject to further study include dealers in precious metals, stones, or jewels; pawnbrokers; loan or finance companies; private bankers; insurance companies; travel agencies; telegraph companies; a business engaged in vehicle sales, including automobiles, airplanes, and boats; persons involved in real estate closings and settlements; investment companies other than mutual funds; and commodity pool operators and commodity trading advisors.

end snippit.

comment: So its going to be less than 6 months. Still, considering what happened in Argentina, wouldn't you rather be a month early than one day late?
Trurl
Reaction to winning Argentina tears essay
The various Argentina tears were excellent; much harder than guessing a number.

In reading the winning essay, two ideas for concrete action came to mind.

Yes, this is a gold site; gold 24x7. But what do you do with short term funds you may need soon? It is this which makes me expect we will always have fiat/plastic credit. It's just too convenient.

But here are two things to consider doing with non-PM funds.

1) Ever consider giving your bank a seven day notificiation of your intent to withdrawal funds *NOW*?
Why wait? ( in the US at least, banks can by law require the written notification of seven days notice of intent to withdrawel funds from interest bearing accounts.

2) Consider US Savings bonds for at least some of your funds. There is no overhead expense. There is no state tax. Taxes can be deferred until they are cashed. You can cash them at *ANY* bank. ( It's part of their franchise of being called a bank that they must do this...) Currently fairly good interest rates. Bank regulation changes may miss them, since they are really outside the banking system.
You can always cash them at a Federal Reserve Bank...Maybe.

This is where I keep my unemployement fund stashed.

Just things to think about for the holistic PGA. Why yes, I do live in CA ;-)
R Powell
Nevada Silver
Black Blade's earlier post (74187) gives a link to an article in a Nevada Newspaper. I noticed especially the last line in which a Mr. Coyner states that mining supplies money. It's not debated, just stated.

CoBra- thanks for the reply as the jacket cover gives a picture of Mr. Sarnoff and the book was copyrighted in 1980 so I was wondering if he is still alive. The book also lists other books by the author. It lists 29 titles. I hope your friend found satisfaction in their creation.
I'm not quite half way through my first. If I succeed and there are to be more, then the first will have to be, by far, the hardest.
Rich
Canuck
"...channeling the hyperinflation..."
Interesting topic, bounced about this forum about a year ago when Aristotle was AWOL.

We saw the FED 'channel' the monetary excess into the stock market in 1999/2000. As the SM's crashed and burned money was backpeddled and stored in 'cash'. Record amounts, trillions.

So in the last couple years (along with the late 90's) 'cash' was re-directed to the housing market, well why not. Money ALWAYS chasing the highest ROI.

If one gets a fat egg in the tech sector while realizing 20% in real estate where is the flow? I heard the other day from a top notch realtor what defines a hot housing market:
a) low interest rates
b) a rising return ie: housing going up
c) consumer confidence ie: wealth effect and low unemployment

I might add d) no other alternative viable investment.

So enormus money sits on the sideline, Wall Street is begging (kissing ass actually) for J.Q. Public to put his hard earned stash back into the market because a) the 'bottom is in' and b) the economy has turned the corner.

Mr. Public is concerned, he is only a year, year and a half past his most recent flogging. Know many people jumping back into tech and index funds? A little ripple is flowing into resource, a ripple into energy, a ripple into 'value' stocks.

The big money is ready to rip and roar. Aristotle's question of 'channeling into gold' is indeed eye-popping. We know the numbers, a couple percent into the yellow would go a long way. Will this arrest the inflation? We shall see.

I have heard 2 speeches from David Dodge, head of the Canadian Cental Bank, in the last 2 days. He is worried of inflation. He pulled the trigger last week and raised rates and today mentioned probable, serious rate increases this year. Big time, sloshing money chasing goods, RED ALERT!

Yesterday we debated Greenspan's reluctance to raise rates, he might wait until August, right! He will be so behind the curve so severely, check articles from bond experts. And we hear rumours that the FED is demanding interest rate devirative curtainment of 50 and 70 percent. Yes, rumours, no one has verified jack diddly. We hear gold short covering and the like blah, blah, and big time open interest closure.

So the heavies need time to sort out big time issues before Greenspan goes on a rambage? Greenie went overboard on the overheated economy and then went overboard on the cooling, the FED is out of control.

Where's the pent up demand going? Well I hope Ari is right but who really knows? What's the next wave?

As the recent posts go, when gold hits several thousand dollars imagine the mess of everything else we are accustomed to.
Solomon Weaver
Hey Sierra
Doesn't the French word for Money mean "silver"?

POS
Golden Bear
Article on inflation / deflation from the Daily Reckoning.
Excellent point regarding inflation and deflation co-existing as bubbles grow and then pop...

------------------------------------------

THE JANUS ECONOMY
by Sean Corrigan


The manic enthusiasm for property - the so-called
"housing boom" fuelled by loose credit on both sides of
the Atlantic - has another, darker face. Alongside the
flourishing residential real estate boom, we also have
an ongoing commercial property glut.

In the U.S., for example, office vacancy rates are
between 16-22% in key metropolitan districts such as
Miami, LA, Atlanta, Dallas-FW and Boston.

The Denver-Boulder high-tech "corridor" is suffering so
heavily that "For Rent" signs swing over 35% of the
buildings there.

In London, the first quarter of 2002 saw the worst take-
up in a decade with lettings (rentals) running at half
the rate of two years ago, and with speculative
construction amounting to around 16 months' current
absorption.

But this real estate anomaly is only one manifestation
of what might be termed the Janus Economy.

Janus, to step back a bit and explain, was the Roman God
of gates and doors, beginnings and endings, represented
by a double-faced head, each looking opposite
directions.

For some time the economies of both the U.S. and the UK
have been grappling with the twin evils of deflation and
inflation. One represents the collapse of over-
investment in the IT sector. The other is the result of
a coordinated effort by central bankers around the globe
to try and stave off economic crises.

While technology in the U.S. has undergone a once-in-a-
lifetime bust, with "networkers" off 77% since the 2000
top and "telecoms" down 68%, health care is up 185%,
home builders gained 190% and defense is up 245%.

Where does this all lead? Luckily - or maybe not - we
have a model, which teaches us...almost nothing. Witness
an article in the Japan Times this weekend, where the
latest crank suggestion came from one Professor Ron Dore
of the London School of Economics.

The mad professor thinks the only way for Japan to get
out of the mess it is in is to...um...create inflation.
Dore has come up with the novel idea that during the
spring wage talks, the Japanese government needs to
coerce the private sector into boosting wages across the
board by at least 4 percent...thus creating inflation
and giving consumers confidence.

Companies would then be willing to invest in new
ventures as they could envisage better returns, he
argues. Professor Dore appears to have neglected to
calculate the threat posed by inflation to the companies
who must pay the wages. With increased labour costs,
companies will be forced to shed labour to reduce the
wage bill again.

"Such a coordinated wage rise has never happened in
post-war history, but then neither has such a prolonged
period of deflation," enthuses the Prof.

Could this perhaps be because when Herbert Hoover
persuaded businesses to coordinate a real wage rise in
1929 - by keeping dollar wages flat in the face of
declining prices - there soon followed exactly such a
"prolonged period of deflation," one which has since
gone by the colloquial title "The Great Depression"?

Probably not. Because academics don't do history like
the rest of us. The professor is not likely to ascribe
any cause - especially not one contrary to economic
theory - to the greatest financial crisis of the 20th
century.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, pure and simple. If
people are given more money than they wish to hold, they
will exchange it for goods or assets. To the extent that
these are also not supplied in a greater profusion than
the demand absorbs, their prices will rise.

The change in prices will not be homogeneous. If only it
were, there might be a faint hope of at least some
offsetting benefits. Instead, when the newly increased
money begins to work, it will critically alter costs
throughout the economy and thus exert sizeable
influences on business planning.

These influences - being highly arbitrary - are usually
unpredictable and almost inevitably damaging to
investment and profitability.

Think of it this way. If high consumer spending is
keeping labour rates elevated and is diverting energy
resources, building materials and whatever else to
realtors and shopping malls, multiplexes and therapists'
couches, "productive industry" has a harder fight not
just for the end dollar, but also for the means of
producing a final product.

This is true even absent inflation, but if extra money
is added to the mix, a wedge is now being driven between
those who create and those who destroy.

With this extra money, people will increase their
spending first on necessities - such as health insurance
and energy - and on ineluctables - such as government
defence spending - and their prices will rise.

Rising prices in these areas will attract more
production, as well as more credit and capital to
reinforce their enhanced cashflows. Products with rising
prices will tend to be bid out of the hands of
productive industries and hence withdrawn from them,
stifling their expansion.

It is crucial to realize that whereas producer credit
can lead to wasteful business misdirection and specific
over-expansion (i.e. the New Era), consumer credit can
also end up impugning economic well-being by divorcing
the use of "purchasing" power from "earning" power...or
productive capacity.

As long as foreign producers or their governments are
willing to make up the shortfall - the former, by what
is the equivalent of a global USD vendor financing
programme, the latter, through what is effectively an
export subsidy expropriated from their own consumers -
all may seem well to Fed Chairman Greenspan and his
cohort across the ocean, Eddy George.

However, in an article in the Yomiuri Shimbun this
weekend, the downside effects of attempting to inflate
your way out of a deflationary spiral are clearly laid
out.

"Consumer goods manufacturers," says the article, "are
unsure whether to pass a surge in material prices onto
consumers, despite the ongoing deflationary crisis.
Steel and chemical manufacturers have repeatedly raised
prices of industrial materials following a decline in
inventories and surging oil prices...Semiconductor
prices have tripled since autumn...prices of steel,
fibre materials and materials for liquid crystals have
also risen.

"So far, only the prices of personal computers, gasoline
and some other consumer goods have increased as a
result, but economists warn that more price increases
would further hamper consumer spending."

However, manufacturers of finished goods would most
likely suffer a drop in profits if they did not pass
rising prices of materials onto consumers.

"This dilemma," continues the article, "has caused
manufacturers to resist attempts by material makers to
increase their prices. Meanwhile, industrial material
makers that have long suffered production cutbacks and
falling profits are determined to try to recover profits
by at least maintaining the current prices."

Ahhh! The curse of wish fulfilment in the Janus Economy.
Janus was worshipped in Rome at the beginning of the
harvest time, planting, marriage, birth and other types
of beginnings, especially the beginnings of important
events in a person's life.

One wonders, with one face looking back at the failure
of capital allocation during the New Era and the other
looking forward to the uncertainty of opening the global
money spigots what - if anything - we ought to be
celebrating this spring.

Cheers,

Sean Corrigan,
for The Daily Reckoning
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
No Comment, Did I say something beef or?
The way POG is now above 300 and bouncing along a few dollars above means they have admitted defeat in the short term. Once resistance is broken it often "lays" on that zone and hops until buying dries up all offered. The shares are pre-empting the POG move beyond 320. Major analysts who have large followings are calling for 350 gold by years end. So the publicity there, and continued deterioration of the stock market indexes is funneling money into the goldshares and this breakout shows it's only about 25% completed. MADC's are rolling positive and have not leveled off. Previous breakouts during the past 3 years were started with short squeeze covering panics. This one is different, shorts have covered and it's longs climbing onboard. The two wave rally thus far could be a retake of possibly a Spring 93 rally, as that one took two initial waves to finally do a mega-breakout. The question is being asked this week,"So what do YOU think about gold?", to every analyst. Any analyst who gives back negative talk sounds like an idiot. So negative press is abating. They'd rather just change the subject. This thing is moving faster than even the internet rallies. The entire goldmine sector could be purchased with some 25 billion dollars. So when the scared money wants to go into it, it always looks undervalued. The sad thing about this is that once they double and triple from here, they will be subject to radical selloffs as the funds move into metal and leave the politically "rigged" goldshares to the dumb money. It's blasting off now but mega-breakouts do not last long. They are going to move up so fast, by the time the dumb money arrives, there will be plenty of funds selling off and moving into physical.

A mega-breakout can be understood by observing the shell of a snail. The unwinding of an ellipitcal spiral, exponential buying demand is what the Fibonacci sequence is about. How much water is contained in two equal shape and width water waves one being 8 feet high and one being 16 feet high? Not a 2 to 1 ratio as we might think. Exponential volume growth occurs as you move up from the 8 to the 16 foot height of the wave. Exponential rates of growth are mind boggling and this is why logarithmic scales are used to factor out the exponent and return the scale to linear dimensions so it can be more easily charted. Then you can put away the french curves and draw straight lines again. That is beyond what I do but the theory is interesting to me. The POG bouncing above 300 for this duration is sending out the signal "We lost this trench and pull the guys back to 325 and re-establish shorts there." It's an admission of failure. We'll see at what level they re-attack the price. No one knows where it will be. The shorting attack on the shares has been ocurring on the backside after the rallies are temporarily over. They try to shake the shares out of the weak hands. The Cabal is not strong enough to stop a rally in progress but they do enjoy shorting the rally after the first sign of weakness. There should be a serious rally in the POG very soon. The gold rally was always called a "temporary event". Since it is not returning, it invalidates the false premis and solidifies the consensus that "it is different this time" it's a bull market in gold!
People just want to stop worrying, they want financial peace. There is a day for every event under the sun. Now is not the time to sell too early. There will be a day when all this stuff (paper gold) will be way overpriced and the big funds WILL shift into physical metal at some point. So let each man remain in the state in which he was converted to "goldbug". Hast thou metal, why dost thou wish to sell thy metal and purchase shares? Do you have shares? Why do you want to sell too early and lack funds for metal? That's my take on it. The same people who laugh at 300 gold will be going bananas to buy it at 450. And if you say "Sounds like another goldbug crying "gold" like a boy who cried "wolf". Is a parabolic XAU a bluff in the dark? Today was caldera smoke. DON'T sell too soon. We have been patiently waiting for this REAL breakout for 5 long kicked in the mud years. After they rocket up, fire in the sell order and send the proceeds to your physical fund site. Hey dude your getting real gold metal? I'm not hypeing gambling in papur goald. I'm just saying if you are so inclined, then best to you.
Canuck
David Dodge leads 10:00pm news
Economy is too hot, CDN CB has an obvious bias towards tightening, projecting an average 'short rate' of 3.25 this year, raised from 2.00 to 2.25% last week. (I might have that number incorrect; maybe 2.50 from 2.25)

Big time news, Bell Canada boss John Monty packs his bags, after 27 years at the head, internet volatility has him spooked.

Maybe. A successor was on the business news at 6:00pm this evening. He was on his babble, John this, John that and then I heard a slip. Apparently BCE COULD NOT JUSTIFY ITS ACQUISTIONS, ITS GROWTH NUMBERS, ITS BOTTOM LINE. He said this, not as direct as above but damn near.

Red Alert! The accounting fallout is gaining ground.



Canuck
Let's have a poll
A)Chances of Iraq invasion
B)The magnitude
C)Why

A)98%
B)Major
C)Hussein admission of sponsering suicide bombers ($25,000)
Probable involvement in 911, again monetary sponsership. Lead terrorist on planet.
Canuck
@ CR2
Good analysis, very technical.

I plan to run out of the gold shares early. I have a couple that I know very little about, bought on rumour, sold....
They will be exited early maybe on the next run-up, ie: the Sept. 99 resistance.

A couple stronger ones might be held until run-up two, $350/$360. At this point the hedged mighties might be feeling the heat. This point will surely separate the so-called hedge strung-out from the 'non-hedgers'.

My 'proxy-for-gold' will be held well past $360 probably to $500 (although less of) and then I will be too nervous to hold any paper. By $500 an ounce paper should be well of fire.

Plan 'Black Blade' will be underway post $500, when, wow, within a year? I see struggling at the $330 Sept. 99 resistance at or near end of 2Q02.

Happy charting.
Waverider
Canuck
Greetings from the wild west coast.

a) ditto
b) ditto
c) OIL
D) Within the next 3 months

I thought we might have heard from RobotGuy today with the loonie flying higher - it likely will fly higher still as the interest rate spread b/t Canada and US widens.

Did you happen to see R. Powells #74241? It seemed to me you had recommended "Silver Bulls" - I thought you had posted a quote from it some time back, but I could be wrong.

Cheers,
Waverider
Grubstaker
Not to be dismissed lightly...
DEBKAfile's Exclusive Military sources:
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier � Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements
24 April: Saudi Arabia denies it has massed 8 brigades on its Jordanian border following secret intelligence reports of Israeli troop concentrations on its frontier with Jordan. (The Kingdom of Jordan is wedged between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and Syria.) Israel denied the Saudi claim Tuesday, April 23. The comeback was fast:� "A responsible source" at the kingdom's defense and aviation ministry stated that Saudi armed forces units are merely conducting "routine exercises" in the northwestern region, not beefing up their troop presence there.
The next step in this unfolding exchange of claims and denials was another report from Riyadh on Thursday, April 24, that Israeli jets were flying over Jordan's border with the oil kingdom. Saudi air defenses were said to be under orders to shoot down any intruding craft.
DEBKAfile's military analysts have taken due note of Riyadh's public admission that it fears an Israeli invasion of Jordan. Even more noteworthy is its timing: 48 hours before Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz travels to President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas.
Here, then, is a transparent Saudi gambit, based on the cynical exploitation of the Israeli military bugbear. This gambit, in the view of our analysts, is employed by Riyadh for three purposes:
First, to manufacture tension on the Saudi-Jordanian-Israel borders in order to back up Abdullah's attempt to railroad Israel as the generator of military escalation in the region.
Second, as a device to cut short the Saudi crown prince's American visit. Riyadh-Washington relations have never been so bad. (Read earlier DEBKA report on this page: Bush-Abdullah talks: To Paper over Cracks?) Since the Saudi ruler could not wriggle out his American trip, he needed a pretext for an early departure for home.
Third, Saudi rulers have been forewarned of impending Iraqi troop movements focusing on Jordan and are taking military precautions to keep the coming military exchanges from spilling over into home territory.
Riyadh, while attempting to fabricate a crisis around Jordan's borders � and pin it on Israel � knows exactly what is really going on. The Israeli troop presence along the border of the Hashemite kingdom � which Israeli spokesmen consistently deny � is there with Amman's consent for the sole purpose of deterring Saddam from invading Jordan. The Saudis are also perfectly aware that Iraq led the way in kicking off this round of military moves and that Israel countered with a blocking tactic.
DEBKAfile 's military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop movements.
The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago consists of 3-4 of its 7 crack Republican Guard divisions, which are stationed in the center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are fanned out across a 300-sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest � 350 km. west of Baghdad - and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the town of Rutbah.
The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried out under the cover of a bombing and missile barrage, will try and capture this area and take over the four bases - much in the way a main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afghanistan. From there US forces will threaten the capital, Baghdad.
The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents. One, led by Saddam Hussein's son, Qusay, will fall back toward Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and seize its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital, Amman.
The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to � whose presence Israeli spokesmen deny � is poised to defend Jordan against this very Iraqi assault.
By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in an isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in the Jewish state, as well as American militaryfacilities in the Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar.
Iraq is also getting set to counter alternative US tactics. This week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US and British allied planes. This move was a preventive measure against a possible US attempt to seize Iraq's northern and southern oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also large-scale helicopters squadrons flying US and British Marines in from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey.
All these plans are still on American and Iraqi drawing boards. Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli military planners are also working hard on contingency plans.
The Americans therefore have no reason to expect a short campaign. Our military experts estimate the first stage alone will last between one and two months. Saddam will certainly wield oil as a weapon. The Saudis have taken steps to reassure Washington that they have no intention of joining Baghdad in an oil embargo. On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market.
Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom.
But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.
Already the Saudis are operating on two levels � one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first.
Mr Gresham
GR2: Wow!
So many things so well said...
Black Blade
USD Weakening
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Foriegn currencies are strengthening against the USD. PMs, Oil and NG are slightly positive. Market indices are slightly lower. Still, it could be "interesting" in NY as more earnings disappointments come to light. We might see the DOW slip beneath the waves (sub 10,000). There is absolutely no positive market news.

- Black Blade
Topaz
It"s a US$ problem.
Seeing several posts re: the CDN Dollar, I think it's worth mentioning pretty well EVERYTHING is positive USD lately.
While we laboriously watch POG claw it's way northward, a check on E/POG; A$/POG; Yen/POG etc reveal slow progress indeed. - As A$ has made ground against US$, it is still range bound E/Yen and is only slightly down on Gold, so the Prince of Currencies (Au) is really only marching in time with it's Fiat counterparts.
Waverider
Retreating to the sanctuary of gold
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/companies/story/0,2276,42992,00.html?Snippit:
"'GOLD is back,' declared a leading news agency this week in an analysis into why the yellow metal has pushed resolutely back above US$300 an ounce for the first time in two years, and why investor interest is at its highest in almost 20 years. An appropriate retort might be that gold has never been away - for the past 3,000 years or more - and that it is simply reasserting the appeal it has had throughout decades, centuries and millennia.

Those unaccustomed to looking beyond the near-term horizon may believe that gold has been eclipsed by financial instruments that promise higher returns, and yet which are often secured only by the issuer's promise to pay. Gold, however, is 'one of the few assets which does not represent someone's else's liability', (to quote the World Gold Council) and it has a way of reasserting itself from time to time and proving that it cannot be treated as a mere 'commodity'."

Waverider: Good article - more positive press for Gold in the Asia Business Times.
MOJO-JOJO
Tensions loom as Bush meets with Saudi crown prince
http://www.nj.com/newsflash/national/index.ssf?/cgi-free/getstory_ssf.cgi?a0412_BC_US-SaudiArabia&≠ws≠wsflash-nationalSaudi intellectuals call U.S. and Israel axis of terrorism and evil in the World. Also, news of a Saudi telethon for Palestinians that may have actually funded Hamas.
Black Blade
Dodge Says U.S. Currency Union 'Feasible'
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020424/wl_canada_nm/canada_currency_col_1
Snippit:

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Wednesday that a currency union between Canada and the United States is feasible but that doesn't mean it's desirable.

Black Blade: Loss of Sovereignty should follow. After currency union how long until Canadian provinces merge into the US as new States?
Black Blade
Jewellers sell 13, not 22 carat gold
http://in.news.yahoo.com/020425/61/1mk5c.html
Snippit:

New Delhi, April 24: Gold consumers are being cheated of Rs 8,000 crore every year by jewellers and the country has to import 800 tonne bullion per annum to satisfy the Indian family's craving for the precious metal.

Black Blade: Looks like a widening scandal in India. The WGC is supposedly trying to sell "hallmarked" jewelry.
Black Blade
Retreating to the sanctuary of gold
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/companies/story/0,2276,42992,00.html?
Snippit:

'GOLD is back,' declared a leading news agency this week in an analysis into why the yellow metal has pushed resolutely back above US$300 an ounce for the first time in two years, and why investor interest is at its highest in almost 20 years. An appropriate retort might be that gold has never been away - for the past 3,000 years or more - and that it is simply reasserting the appeal it has had throughout decades, centuries and millennia.

Why should gold be making a comeback now, just when the global economy is showing signs of recovery and equity markets are regaining some of their poise? The answer lies, to some extent in rising Middle East tensions and the impact these are having - or threaten to have - on oil prices. Oil and gold have a way of moving in tandem, as the massive run-up in the gold price following the oil shock in the late 1970s illustrated very dramatically.

One factor is leading gold producers' decision to stop selling forward output that has not been mined. Another is that central banks (with the possible exception of the German Bundesbank) appear less anxious to sell gold now than they were in the 1990s when they attempted to demonetise the metal.


Black Blade: Gold wins. A fairly good article that covers the many reasons that Gold has begun to recover.
Black Blade
Aussie Banks' Buying Boosts Gold

Buying by a few Australian banks boosting spot gold, says Sydney bank trader; adds gold's ability to hold $302/oz support over last week plus overnight rally to $304.60 make "a move up quite logical," with immediate target $305 before trying 2-year high of $308 reached in early February. Spot gold now at $304.55 vs late NY's $303.65. (WCP)

Black Blade: Aussie Banks buying Gold? Hmmm�
Black Blade
More SEC Probes

Just over the wire - JP Morgan Chase and FleetBoston are under investigation for improprieties over their IPO marketing and various conflicts of interest and possible insider deals. Very "Interesting" developments.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
U.S. Units Attacking Al Qaeda in Pakistan - Post
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020425/ts_nm/afghan_pakistan_dc_7

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Covert U.S. military teams have been quietly participating in attacks on suspected al Qaeda hide-outs inside Pakistan in recent weeks, opening a new front in the battle along the Afghan-Pakistan border, the Washington Post reported on Thursday. U.S. Special Operations troops based on the Afghan side of the border have come under frequent attack over the last month and have suffered some injuries, U.S. military officials told the newspaper, adding that no Americans have been killed. The U.S. forces have been in several firefights, the report said.


Black Blade: Just over the wire is that US Troops are currently attacking Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Also just over the wire is that Saudi has just backed off their promise to not join in an Oil embargo. Maybe Dubya insulted his Saudi guest (like not eat the sheep eyes or offered a Lone Star beer).

Meanwhile, Gold is popping higher, the US Dollar has fallen sharply against the Yen, and the Market Futures indices are falling off into the abyss. If these futures levels hold we are looking at a very hard crash in the markets at the open. Even Oil has rebounded some.
Black Blade
TYCO In Big Trouble

It looks as if TYCO (TYC) will report very bad news this morning and very strong earnings warnings for the next year. They will not split into four companies after all because they could not find a buyer for the plastics division. They will also take a $3.3 Billion charge. The company is drowning in massive debt. It looks like David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund was right after all. TYCO is toast!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Saudi and Qatar to Extend Oil Production Cuts

Both countries have announced that they plan to extend Oil production cuts, and Saudi is backing off their promise to not use Oil as a weapon against the US. I had mentioned this as a possibility and I was planning on discussing this possibility a bit more. It should be noted that Saudi is ripe for revolution and that there is strong anti-American sentiment among the population and the Wahabbi clerics. However, there is a split in the Saudi Royal family. These are "interesting" developments.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Euro Markets Awash In Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Looks very "grim" this morning. A lot of earnings warnings are expected. The USD is falling against foreign currencies. It is interesting to watch the CNBC anchors the last couple of days lay into corporate representatives for touting "Pro Forma". Liz Clayman just laid into the Webmethods chairman and CEO. Yesterday it was Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.bomb. Mark Haines has really been leveling a lot of sarcastic remarks about Pro Forma with each earnings release. This is quite a change - are the gloves coming off? Who knows, but it is quite funny watching these CEOs stammer when grilled.

- Black Blade
Canuck
POG
Local headline news, which is usually accurate, shows gold +2.00, Kitco is flat, what's up.
Canuck
INO has spot at 306.50
Might be rip day.
Black Blade
Canuck - POG
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Try the CRB link. It seems to be working lately, while the Kitco quote ticker is usually having fits. Also, ino above occasionally works as does bulliondesk quotes. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Dollar's Woes Deepen
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020425/markets_forex_2.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar came under fire from all directions on Thursday, hitting the year's low against the Swiss franc as concern the U.S. economy was lagging the global recovery dimmed the once-unrivalled allure of U.S. assets. The greenback fell to its weakest since early January against the euro and sterling and hit a fresh six-week low against the yen even after Japan stepped up warnings that it could take action to stem the move.


Black Blade: Should be good for the POG.
Golden Bear
Spot is jumpin'!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=30&t=f&a=3It was only a matter of time, and continual bad news....

Cheers.
Black Blade
Gold - Flying High - +$4.60
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is now punching upward at $309.40/oz. and climbing as Wall Street worries, war in the ME and Pakistan, falling US Dollar, etc. are taking a toll. It looks like tere is nothing but worry in NY this morning. Dismal corporate earnings are causing a lot of nervous stock investors to look elsewhere. This could be a very "Interesting" day. Even Oil is turning positive on ME Oil news.

- Black Blade
Grubstaker
$US @115.53 down $.53
GOLD straight up to $308 and no other major news on the wires..
Something is definitely comin' down the chute...
Grubstaker
US$@115.45 down $.70
The US$ is dropping ...the 117 level has been breached then to 116 now 115. 117 was the level of support for the dollar. Recently it has moved quietly to 116+ This is what is causing the spot POG do do it's thing..correction to last post, it should have read "US$@115.53 down $.62"...
Black Blade
Nice Gold Chart
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=1&t=l&a=1
Look at this chart (link). Someone came out and bought Gold in a hot hurry. Now for the momentum to carry it over at least $310.00/oz. and hopefully hold for a new floor price. We are about due for a break out to the upside. Everything else on Wall Street has turned to mush.

- Black Blade
Knallgold
New Goldmarket in Dubai
Wasn't this predicted by FOA? Dubai,Shanghai and Europe somewhere will open New Gold Markets.


(Copied from GE)Dubai greedy for gold trade

Dubai - Dubai, the self-styled "city of gold", on Wednesday launched a metal and commodities centre for trading gold, diamonds and key commodities with an initial goal of securing half of the global gold trade.

The Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC) will be a free zone offering 100% ownership and a 50-year tax holiday to resident companies, DMCC financial advisor Hamid Kazim told a press conference.

The centre will offer physical trading facilities, storage, hallmarking, package and delivery facilities, a training centre and a gems lab, as well as "transparency, flexibility and a regulatory environment of international standard," said Kazim.

"DMCC will provide ... strategic location, world-class facilities, a secure, regulated environment," said Kazim, who is managing partner of the Dubai branch of US auditors Andersen.

"The physical location of Dubai is a huge asset in this project as the city is close to many of the key markets. We also have the opportunity to build on the established infrastructure that we have in place, particularly in the gold trade.

"Investment is going to be significant," Kazim said, without giving details or a timetable for the centre's construction.

Three gold refineries, fully operated by local firms ARY, Emirates Gold, and Gulf Import and Export, will also be housed on the complex.

Kazim said the aim was to increase five-fold Dubai's share of the global gold trade of 2 300 tonnes per year from 10% currently to 50%.

Dubai, one of seven emirates that make up the federation of the United Arab Emirates, is one of the world's main handling centres for gold, exporting up to 660 tonnes in 1998 but only 280 tonnes last year.

Its main markets are India and the other Gulf monarchies.


Grubstaker
US$ verses GOLD spot charts
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/Seeing them both together on the same page brings things into perspective.
Spartacus
Gold
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?drversion=1A New Bull Market in Gold by William Rees-Mogg

---If the dollar falls, the dollar price of gold is likely to edge up. If that creates a new expectation in Asia, the gold bandwagon could again start to roll. Gold may be on the edge of the next bull market. ---

Spartacus: The unofficial spokesman for the anglo-saxon financial oligarchy has spoken. Take notice!
Cavan Man
Knallgold
Yes. You are right. It was commented on by FOA. I had intended to point that out yesterday but forgot to post.
nickel62
What a beautiful day gold is having.!!!!!
For just this little moment in time it appears that the free market price of gold is returning...could that be???
It would be nice to see again in my lifetime. It might take troops massing on both sides of the Israeli border to take the Plunge Protection Teams eye off the ball long enough to free the markets but it is wonderful none the less. Out of all the various factors effecting gold this morning I think that the Saudi movement of six brigades to the Jordanian frontier with Isreal is probably the straw that broke the back of the gold market masters. It's ramifications for the US dollar, the stock market, the "war" against terrorism, the price inflation projections, and the general disinformation campaign of the Western media are profound. Can't manipulate everybody all the time has always been my hope. I guess we might actually find out if the excesses are about to become uncontrollable. I wonder if those rocket scientist model builders that price those derivatives are about to discover the unpredicted event that we have all expected and they never did?
Gandalf the White
GOOD MORNING, SPIKE !!!! <;-)
Jump SPOT, JUMP !!
Where are you Goldfly ?
<;-)
Nomad
more probing ...
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,1870,116168,00.html?
CONFLICT OF INTEREST CLAIMS

New 12-state probe targets Wall Street banks

NEW YORK - Pressure mounted on Tuesday for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the main United States markets regulator, to help resolve conflict of interest claims against Wall Street investment banks, with the launch of a new probe by 12 state securities regulators.

Spitzer smells a promotion to mayor or senator ...
G$
right on nickel62
Your comment about the rocket scientists and the complex machine is very apropos. Every new lie they have come up with over the years has added another cog, another belt, another lever etc. to the machine. Eventually a janitor is going to walk by and accidentally drop a wrench in the gears and it will sieze and implode. Ever seen an engine sieze? I have, and it's not pretty. Fast and violent with a whole lot of noise and smoke. Is it today, tomorrow??? Stay tuned...I believe we will all know it when we see it.

G$
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
The 1877 $20s offered online have already SOLD OUT. Click for details on these MS61 $10s.
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

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A picture may be worth a thousand words,
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Mr Gresham
Gandalf: Contest idea?
How about a "Spike Day" guessing contest? Whoever gets the closest to the first LimitUp, or $50, or whatever (passes WA Spike high?) day -- now somewhere on our horizon.
Henri
On the practical side
OK, given the fact that the go'mint wants a piece of any profit we derive from trading physical gold in the form of capital gains, and in expectation that a sharp rise in POG will be synchronized with a plunge in US $ value, the true capital gain for tax purposes should be offset by the amount of fiat currency inflation. Tax should then be offered to Ceasar only upon the difference. A penalty claimed upon such taxing authority for either engineered collapse or just plain inept management of the value of our beloved FRN.

For this, we need a different measure or indicator of relative value that is unrelated to gold or the US dollar. My first cut at this is to think in terms of foreign Oil as oz/barrel. This presupposes that domestic oil will be subsidized interfering with a fair valuation.

Here is how to calc your taxable profit on physical gold trading. If you paid an average of $300/oz of gold in the last year and the average POO was $20/barrel then your cost basis for the gold was 15 barrels of ME oil.

When you get ready to sell gold at $10,000/oz, ME oil is $75/barrel. the dollar value of your cost basis is now $1,125/oz rather than $300/oz. Your net is $8,875 which would be taxable for capital gain. (perhaps a barrel of ME crude cannot be obtained then for any amount of money then...only gold itself. This would make the calculation easier. oz/barrel at time of sale - oz/barrel basis. Any thoughts?
USAGOLD
Analysis: What's Behind the Current Market Action
http://www.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9785638-0.html?tag=atsThis Reuters report (linked above) summarizes well what is happening in the gold market this morning. It emphasizes that the move this morning is dollar related. The greenback is tumbling against the major currencies. Gold is strong.

"A cheaper dollar makes dollar-denominated bullion more attractive for European and other non-U.S. investors. 'The dollar has been sliding all day and this has simply triggered stop-loss buying all the way up,' one trader said. When the dollar is weak, international equity markets brittle and even bonds don't offer complete protection in a volatile world, gold is seen to offer a safe home for investors."

Though I can't verify it, the market action across the boards (strong gold, oil, currencies/weak dollar, equity markets) points to the probablility that the United States and the Bush administration have been pushing for a cheaper dollar behind the scenes. Since the decision to devalue a currency no longer rests with the issuing country, but with the "Group," Bush would need to have gotten tacit approval from the other countries in G-7 to move forward. Is that what happened at the recent international economic meetings? What were all those central bankers beaming nervously about at the photo ops?) It may be. It is because currency decisions since 1971 are done by committee that I refer to any dollar devaluation as 'de facto' as opposed to 'de jure.' For a very long time, the United States has been a chief export market for the other major industrialized countries due to the strong dollar policy we've talked so much about. Now, it seems that the Bush administraion, the election of which was largely financed by the 'old economy', has persuaded our trading partners that a de facto devaluation of the dollar is in the international trading community's best interest. No one wants to kill the golden goose (also known as the American consumer). That can only happen if some sort of artifical balance is maintained -- and that means rebuilding the capital base of the market to which you would like to expert.

Related: Also, do not underestimate the impact of the AOL-Warner massive loss reported yesterday. The financial pages this morning attribute the loss to "changes in the accounting rules." This has implications up and down the line for corporate American at a time that the country is experiencing a second wave in the Recession. This is going to cripple an already reeling stock market and create even more pressure from the major American industrial corporations to devalue the dollar. This is what I believe the market is reading in the economy this morning and translating to the markets.

The statement featured above is telling. In the fiat money economic cycle, it seems we have certain time-frames which favor different investments. Increasingly the world's investors are beginning to vote with their checkbooks. They are saying now is the time for gold. Internationally, we have had strong capital movement into gold already and the demand could get even stronger, as we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg here as to what massive dollar availability could do for gold demand and dollar pricing (Thanks Belgian and Aristotle). The shorts had better cover. This is their worst nightmare. Huge international gold demand from private citizens that cannot be controlled at the bullion bank trading desks (though I am certain they won't cave-in without a major fight). The fact that this is happening when certain bullion banks have pulled out the stops to keep gold below the $305 strike price in London by expiration tomorrow tells you that their grip is slipping. Even if they succeed in driving gold back down today and tomorrow (which is up in the air), Monday and Tuesday potentially could turn out to be big days for the gold market. As many old-time gold experts have already said: This market has a different feel. (Congratulations are in order for those who bought early. We had very strong sales in the $260 to $280 area. You were right!!)

Please don't take any of this as trading advice, and if you do trade on it, do so at your own peril. I could easily be wrong on this. Those who buy the physical metal as safe-haven portfolio insurance would be well served to increase their holdings now. What I describe above is a plausible scenario that calls for ownership of the hard metal. It could get ugly as the new economy's sins cry for retribution.

I won't be doing a report at the News & Views page today.
PH in LA
Keepin' an eye on the trail!
"For just this little moment in time it appears that the free market price of gold is returning...could that be??? It would be nice to see again in my lifetime." nickel62 (04/25/02; 07:11:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74292)

Please, Nickel! Let's not err on the side of moderation, either. Instead, how about pausing for a quick look around the trail as seen from the long view... maybe from the air.

Think back to the dark days around �$250 when there was no end in sight... no light at the end of the tunnel... When we all were thinking $235 or worse. Now we have $310 in our sights after a series of small surges that never gotten taken back.

FOA was right. Higher prices ARE coming. In fact they're here.

But that doesn't mean that the forces in command have thrown in the towel. Maybe they are doing exactly what they intended to do all along. Exactly what FOA told us they would do.

They're taking prices higher. $5.00 at a time. Two steps forward, one step back. We don't have to tremble any more that they'll be pulling the plug anytime soon and send us plunging back to $250 again.

We're on the road, now. But we've been on it so long that it's easy to forget how far we've come.

But don't worry! There's plenty of trip left on the map.
Pippin
Viacom posts 1,1 Billion loss
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46904-2002Apr25.htmlQuote

Viacom Inc., the media conglomerate that owns CBS and MTV, posted a $1.11 billion net loss for its first quarter Thursday due to an accounting writedown at its Blockbuster video rental unit. Without the charge, earnings were better than analysts had been expecting, and Viacom executives said they were optimistic about a turnaround in advertising.

The $1.48 billion charge reflects a writedown of goodwill at Blockbuster, which is 81 percent owned by Viacom. New accounting rules require companies to periodically test whether the goodwill, or the premium they paid to acquire a company, has lost value. Viacom bought Blockbuster in 1994.

The net loss at Viacom, which also owns the Paramount movie studio and the Simon & Schuster publishing house, was equivalent to 63 cents a share and compared with a net loss of $7.3 million or zero cents a share in the same period a year ago.

Without the effect of the Blockbuster writedown, Viacom had earnings of $367.4 million or 21 cents a share, well above the 16 cents a share that analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call had been expecting.

Viacom said it doesn't expect to take any other writedowns of goodwill related to the new accounting standard, which is known as FAS 142. That means that it won't write down the value of its acquisition of CBS, which was announced in 1999.

Viacom's overall revenues fell 1 percent to $5.67 billion from $5.75 billion in the same period a year ago as a slowdown in advertising continued to hold back the company's advertising-driven businesses such as radio and TV. Viacom relies on advertising for about half of its revenues.

Earnings before taxes, interest payments, depreciation and amortization fell 5 percent to $1.09 billion from $1.15 billion a year ago. That measure, known as EBITDA, is closely followed by investors.

Revenues and earnings slumped in two of the company's major business segments, television and radio, but results were flat to up in video and entertainment. Cable networks, a key business area that includes MTV, VH1 and Nickelodeon, had a 12 percent rise in pretax earnings on a 5 percent increase in revenue.

Viacom executives, speaking to investors on a conference call, said they were optimistic that they had hit the bottom of the current advertising cycle and that the market was likely to improve in the second quarter.

"This clearly was a tough quarter, but we really think we see the light at the end of the tunnel," Rich Bressler, Viacom's chief financial officer, said on the call.

Mel Karmazin, the company's president and chief operating officer, said the company was seeing price increases of 10 to 15 percent in television advertising prices in the second quarter compared to a year ago. "We are encouraged by indications of improvement across all of our businesses," Karmazin said in a statement.

Viacom's shares were off 41 cents at $49.78 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchan

UnQuote
RobotGuy
Explosion in Manhattan
There are breaking stories of an explosion in a technical facility in Manhattan. Initial reports say that the explosion is likely the cause of the explosion. There are currently 100 firemen present at the scene which is cordoned off.


RobotGuy.
RobotGuy
Sorry - - - A boiler is likely the cause of the explosion
The Hoople
Mr. Gresham , Gandalf re: spike day
#### Tuesday, April 30 ####
I realize it isn't an official contest yet but I thought I would beat the rush. Hell, if it is Tuesday I'll personally donate a Rooster or Sovereign to the runner-up. Should a reason be needed for why that day will be spike day I would say I hear a loud ticking noise (did Rukeyser get a pacemaker?) in the form of all indexes perched precariously on breakdown/breakout numbers , declining M-3 similar to early September and a "prison of the gold shorts" that can't hold any longer. I am told $75 is Comex limit, would that be the criteria? Spike's collar is choking him, he is going to tear into the fiat's ---es very soon.
YGM
MK....
USAGOLD (04/25/02; 09:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74299)Thanks for the 'Very' understandable overview. Sometimes us Dwarf Hobbits get lost in the words of Giants.....Let us hope this movement is steady and steadfast. The $50.00 spike of Sept/Oct /99 was short lived, contrary to popular belief/expectations at the time. Hopefully circumstances and the times are diffent now...My raw Gold Dory Bars like others Coins and Bullion represent our and our families futures, and they're getting shinier by the week....YGM.
Gandalf the White
Sir Hoople's SPIKE Date
LOVE IT !
The "Why" is a classic thought.
Poor "Rukie", I can see his face now.
<;-)
And�ril
Do not lose sight of the ball, Mr. Gresham
There is no price limit up for the physical trade. Your limits apply to COMEX guessing contracts... they may lose credibility as a result?! Expect price divergence as metal rises and contracts fall limit DOWN, maybe? Own the metal and do not let your heart be troubled.
Old Yeller
Central banks and asset inflation
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1087225
The Economist comments on where those who should know better may have erred.They make it appear as if increasing interest rates is the only option available.

I remember an unabashed technology stock shill(goes by the name of Alan Greenspan)pounding the bongos at the height of the mania.

Didn't have a thing to do with interest rates,now did it?

Put away the kid gloves,Economist,we know where the blame lies.
Gandalf the White
Thanks Sir And�ril for keeping us on the "True Trail" !!!
and all should know that SIR MK is thinking about the next Contest and welcomes all suggestions (within reason) !!
<;-)
YGM
A Glaring Difference in Latest Gold Chart Uptrend....
Since Apr. /01The previous 3 uptrends since Apr/01 have been 7 to 10 days in the making. his latest one started +/- May 18th and we are at Apr 25th and still going strong. IMO this portends a new reality for a Gold Bull!....YGM
YGM
June 02 $308.70 (on paper)
Some Fight Goin On......Paper pushers battling Physical demand...I'd love to watch the trading floors tomorrow....Might just compare to Ali (Gold) beating the crap out of Tyson (Paper) To bad we'll never get to see the latter. Well let the bell ring and every day we get a rematch. My bet's on the Gold Paperwieght!
Old Yeller
The latest on Argentina,questioning the IMF
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=574&574&e=3&u=/nm/20020424/wl_nm/argentina_dc_118
It's about time, maybe they should also ask them why Turkey gets boatloads of largesse,while O'Neill sticks pins in his Argentina voodoo doll.

A bakery doubling as a temporary bank,that's fitting.Maybe the Fed should investigate this option,they seem so accomplished at adding a little yeast and puffing up the world's currency.Meanwhile, adeptly using the big rolling pin to squash the malleable former holder of that role.

YGM
This Statement Has to Be Effecting Gold Price..
EGYPT WANTS CASH TO WAR W/ ISRAEL...Egypt ready to wage war on Israel ... for $US100 billion
April 25 2002





Egyptian Prime Minister Atef Ebeid said his country would go to war with Israel if Arab countries stumped up $US100 billion ($A186.32 billion) to pay for the confrontation, in an interview published yesterday.

"If you want to undertake an action and be ready to face up to challenges, you need at least $100 billion," he told the Abu Dhabi Government's Al-Ittihad newspaper when asked why Egypt had taken no measures against Israel's military offensive against the Palestinians.

"I told you we want $100 billion," he repeated in response to a question why Cairo had not expelled Israel's ambassador to Egypt.

"Let the Arab world give $100 billion from Arab funds deposited around the world. Let it say to Egypt: 'This is a budget for confrontation. This budget is at your disposal. Undertake confrontation,' " he said.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak accused Israel yesterday of going "beyond all limits" with its military actions in the West Bank, particularly in Bethlehem and Jenin.


Egypt became the first Arab country to make peace with Israel and signed a treaty in 1979. Protesters in Egypt have frequently called for cutting diplomatic ties with Israel and expelling the Israeli ambassador.

AFP

YGM
Can it get Worse!
It Is!...Not to Mention Jordinian Border......Excerpt...

The New York Times



Saudi to Warn Bush of Rupture Over Israel Policy
Thu Apr 25, 8:56 AM ET
By PATRICK E. TYLER The New York Times

HOUSTON, April 24 Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is expected to tell President Bush (news - web sites) in stark terms at their meeting on Thursday that the strategic relationship between their two countries will be threatened if Mr. Bush does not moderate his support for Israel's military policies, a person familiar with the Saudi's thinking said today.



Reuters
Mideast Conflict


In a bleak assessment, he said there was talk within the Saudi royal family and in Arab capitals of using the "oil weapon" against the United States, and demanding that the United States leave strategic military bases in the region.

Such measures, he said, would be a "strategic debacle for the United States."

He also warned of a general drift by Arab leaders toward the radical politics that have been building in the Arab street.

The Saudi message contained undeniable brinkmanship intended to put pressure on Mr. Bush to take a much larger political gamble by imposing a peace settlement on Israelis and Palestinians.

But the Saudi delegation also brought a strong sense of the alarm and crisis that have been heard in Arab capitals.

"It is a mistake to think that our people will not do what is necessary to survive," the person close to the crown prince said,

"and if that means we move to the right of bin Laden, so be it; to the left of Qaddafi, so be it; or fly to Baghdad and embrace Saddam like a brother, so be it."

It's damned lonely in our part of the world, and we can no longer defend our relationship to our people."

Whatever the possibility of bluster, it is also clear that Abdullah represents not just Saudi Arabia but also the broader voice of the Arab world, symbolized by the peace plan he submitted and that was endorsed at an Arab summit meeting in March.

Cavan Man
@Marke Talk
From another......
Cavan Man
@Marke Talk
OOPS!Thursday April 25, 21:02 PM


Planet line-up heralds tough time-Indian astrologer

BANGALORE, India (Reuters) - A prominent Indian astrologer who predicted a grim tragedy for the United States eight months before the September 11 attacks says the world faces tough times in coming months.

The prediction is linked to a rare grouping of five planets in a single house in celestial charts on May 13 and 14, Gayatri Devi Vasudev, editor of the monthly Astrological Magazine, said in the May issue.

"On the day of the combination itself, no dire calamity will befall the world. But the months of May and June 2002 will not be peaceful for the world," Gayatri Devi wrote.

"The United States may face major setbacks in its war against terrorism though it may succeed with a major terrorist catch," she says. Other hazards the United States could face included terrorist threats and an earthquake, she said.

Until early June the five planets -- Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn -- can be seen with the naked eye as they move into a rough grouping on the same, visible, side of the sun, something that happens only once a century.

Gayatri Devi, who calls astrology a science, says the charts only indicate trends that can be countered by "faith in God and in the inherent divinity of fellow humans".

She says the combination was also significant for India.

"The Indian government may get caught in complex developments threatening its very life but due to the inbuilt strength of its horoscope, the worst may be staved off," she said.

The Hindu nationalist-led coalition government already faces stiff criticism over its failure to end religious violence in Gujarat state where more than 850 people, most of them Muslims, have been killed since late February.

Gayatri Devi also said a Mars-Saturn conjunction on May 4 in Taurus "may have the effect of stimulating a wild aggression by Pakistan on the Indian borders".

India and Pakistan have been locked in a military standoff since an attack on the Indian parliament in December that India blamed on Pakistan-based guerrillas fighting its rule in disputed Kashmir.

She said Pakistan's military ruler General Pervez Musharraf may be in an "unresolvable situation" that could lead to his exit.

Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, is seeking five more years in office through a controversial referendum on April 30. He said earlier this week he would not stay in power against the wishes of voters.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YGM
Will Saudis Close The Oil Valves......What to Believe!
From Apr 24 Debka File...Excerpt...

On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market.
Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom.
But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.

"Already the Saudis are operating on two levels � one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first."

**The entire Apr 24 file report is rather disturbing to say the least....YGM.
Cavan Man
@YGM
Duplicity: a hallmark, yes?
Black Blade
The Wall Street Pump and Prime
http://www.mrci.com/qpday.asp
We have come into the last half hour of market trading and surprise, the market indices are going positive with an all out effort to keep the DOW above 10,000, and NASDAQ above 1700. All this in spite of horrific news at every turn. Strange indeed.

Oil is moving higher and NG is sharply lower. Duel fuel facilities will switch to lower priced NG. The Saudis have restated that they will keep the Oil weapon as an option because it is "the will of the people". "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
TownCrier
"Howard, its Dermot... there are brains on the floor in here".
http://www.shef.ac.uk/~cm1jwb/lotrdvd.htmSome days are like that, aren't they?

Inspiration for Strad Master and the other talent among us.

R.
Jon
Cavan Man, CoBra[too]
Cavan re: your #74316 -what does Mahendra Sharma say?
CoBra[too] - your closing price for Drooy tomorrow?
TownCrier
HEADLINE: Safe-haven gold hits new bull market highs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020425/markets_newyork_gold_1.htmlAs noted earlier, the media seems to have finally rid itself, to a large extent, of its former mantle of anti-gold sentiment. The views (and buying power) of the general public shouldn't be too far behind.
------

Excerpts:
NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Gold futures rallied to new highs in New York on Thursday and the spot metal sparkled after touching a 26-month peak in London, as a tumbling dollar and anxiety about the Middle East fanned a flight to quality and perhaps snapped a 20-year bear market in the precious metal.

...``Even if you take out today's move, gold has been hanging above $300,'' said Amaury Conti, a stock trader at U.S. Global Investors. ``Not that $300 is a huge number, but it is psychologically important. When you look where gold is now, versus, where it's been in the past it still has a lot of room to go to make up for the last 15 years or so.''

...Many analysts say gold could reach $330-$350 in 2002.
-------

And nary a spatter of mud was anywhere to be seen.

R.
TownCrier
Jon
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlUntil the day that Durban Roodepoort Deep (or any other that you might name by ticker) makes a known contribution to support the bottom line of Centennial Precious Metals, it is probably in poor form for any of us to use this particular space for such tacit promotional purposes beyond the spirit of the guidelines here.

Fair enough?

R.
YGM
GATA ..E-Mail......
By Thom Calandra
CBS.MarketWatch.com
April 25, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO -- Gold's spot price approached $310
Thursday for the first time since Oct. 22, 1999, confirming
what observers say is a sustained rally for the precious
metal.

The metal's rise, up $4.20 to $308 an ounce, came as the
euro gained to almost 90 cents on the dollar and the yen
rose almost 1 percent against the greenback. The metal,
which traded around $270 in January, is reflecting Middle
Eastern turmoil, a visit by the Saudi king to Texas, and
the U.S. stock market's decline below what technicians
say are support levels.

"We're in the second stage of a raging market for gold,
and eventually silver and palladium will follow," said
James Dines, editor of The Dines Letter, an advisory
service that covers mining companies.

Investors' shift to gold and other mining companies
comes as the stock market whips once-mighty issues
like Tyco International (TYC), IBM (IBM) , AOL Time
Warner, and General Electric (GE). On Thursday
morning, Tyco saw $9 billion of market capitalization
vanish after the ailing conglomerate abandoned its
break-up plan. The move by Tyco led one market
trader, whose name will stay safely anonymous, to
label the company "psycho Tyco."

Robert Bishop, longtime editor of The Gold Mining
Stock Report, said spot gold's price of $305 was a
so-called resistance level for wary investors who
preferred to believe their beloved NYSE and
Nasdaq stocks would stage a comeback. If gold
holds its gains above $305, Bishop expects the price
to rise another $50 to $60 an ounce in the coming year,
and perhaps more.

At the same time, he says, gold-related equities are
trading at prices that suggest far higher levels for the
metal. "Gold's persistent stay north of $300 suggests
that the next stage of the gold market is fast coming into
view," Bishop says. Most Main Street and Wall Street
investors, he says, are still "much more interested in
seeing their Dow and Nasdaq-heavy portfolios
restored to some measure of their former selves."

Of course, that won't happen anytime soon.

Pravin Banker said gold will continue to benefit from
a growing disgust with mainstream securities and
sloppy interest-rate guidance by the Federal Reserve.
Banker, principal of LDC Bond Watch and The Financial
Network Inc in Connecticut, accurately forecast Tyco's
debt woes, IBM's accounting snafus and other red flares
among blue-chip companies.

"For 6 years now, lured by the Rubin-inspired strong
dollar policy, foreigners have forsaken gold for the safety
of dollars and faith in that Der Alte Greenspan, its guardian,"
Banker said Thursday about Robert Rubin and Alan
Greenspan. "Enron has revealed the ugly side of
manipulation and collusion, and the risks inherent in
unserviceable debt burdens, Tyco the last straw. Asian
faith is shaken. They are reverting back to their age old
haven, and tempting U.S. institutions to follow in their
wake, and buy gold."

For investors, gold's latest rally has lifted gold equity
indexes across the globe, none more so than in South
Africa. With a market cap of $6 billion, Gold Fields Ltd.
(GOLD) is that nation's most richly valued bullion miner,
surpassing longtime heavyweight Anglogold (AU). Gold
Fields, its production entirely unhedged against the
possibility of the metal's decline, has built its 85 million
ounces of gold reserves through the rapid -- and
cheap -- purchase of mines in Africa and Australia.

Gold's rally leaves many large and small investors
searching for mining companies whose shares look
reasonably valued. Trouble is, as newsletter editor
Bishop points out, many established gold names
trade at levels that almost demand a gold price that
is at least 15 percent greater that the current price. In
this year's first quarter, gold-based mutual funds,
many of them up 40-plus percent, made up 18 of the
top 20 spots for domestic funds in the three-month span.

Bob Bishop's Recomendations omitted...YGM.

Dines, who tracks low-priced mining stocks, says America's
brokerage and research houses "are still sniffing in the
empty mouse holes of Microsoft and AT&T. Meanwhile,
this is the biggest gold rally of the past 20 years."

Dines, whose model stock portfolio was one of the first
quarter's top 10 performers for the 165 newsletters tracked
by Hulbert Financial Digest, says investors would do well to
buy silver miners at this stage.

"You cannot get a raging bull market in gold without
dragging the silvers higher," Dines said Thursday. "Silver
is the poor man's gold; it is not just an industrial metal.
Silver will be dragged higher from $4.60 an ounce as
people look for the cheap stocks to buy."

Dines & Bishops Recomendations ommitted by myself per forum guidelines.YGM

-END-
Black Blade
Tyco Scraps Breakup Plan, Takes $3.3 Billion in Costs, Fires 7100
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APMflFhTuVHljbyBT
Snippit:

Exeter, New Hampshire, April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Tyco International Ltd. dropped plans to split into four companies and had $3.3 billion in costs after the conglomerate's shares tumbled 44 percent since the proposal was unveiled in January. The company will eliminate 7,100 jobs, close 24 facilities and take a $2.4 billion writedown of the value of its undersea telecommunications network. Full-year profit forecasts were slashed. The stock fell 14 percent in early trading.


Black Blade: The smaller version of GE is in deep trouble and now 7,100 are shipped off to the growing "Bone Pile". Not much of an economic recovery. Also, JDS Uniphase just announced that they will fire over 2,000 people � more to go to the growing "Bone Pile".
YGM
Cavan Man..
Duplicity, and many other traits inconcievable to western civilizations, I'm afraid. Fact of life and doing business there....Definately a major culture shock above and beyond most other ways of the world....
Black Blade
Dollar Hugs Lows, Investors Look Elsewhere
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020425/markets_forex_6.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A chastened dollar sagged to multi-month lows against all major currencies on Thursday, as analysts speculated that investors, once enamored of U.S. assets, now look askance at American markets.


Black Blade: Looks ugly for the US Dollar. The toilet currencies Yen and Euro look surprisingly strong today. The US Dollar could weaken further as many have been surprised that the USD has been as strong as it has. Many others (especially exporters) have been calling for a weaker USD to stimulate the US manufacturing sector and US exports. The effect on Gold is obvious.
Black Blade
Gold shines brighter
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/25/markets/gold/index.htm
Gold price soars to over $308 an ounce on Mideast worries and weaker dollar.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The price of gold surged to $308.70 an ounce Thursday morning -- its highest level since February 2000, when it touched $319 -- on worries over the situation in the Middle East and continued weakness in the dollar. Gold broke through its long-standing range of resistance between $305 and $308 in early trading although it slipped off its morning high of $309 an ounce. "If it can sustain this, then prices can hit $310 and even $315. But if it doesn't hold $307 it will be a disappointment," a trader said.



Black Blade: I agree, Gold must hold here and build a base to work higher.
Black Blade
12 States Join N.Y. Probe of Wall Street
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44183-2002Apr24.html
Prosecutor Spitzer Says He Has Enough Evidence to File Charges Against Merrill

Snippit:

New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said yesterday that a dozen other states are joining him in an expanded investigation of Wall Street firms' practice of touting stocks of companies that pay them fees.


Black Blade: Every day it's a new accounting scandal, SEC probe, lawsuit, Earnings warning, corporate bankruptcy, etc. Obviously many people will begin to look elsewhere for alternatives for wealth preservation (including Gold).
Mr Gresham
On the other hand...
...this $2 a day stuff, I could get along with just fine. Where's that old sock I had some quarters stuffed into?
mikal
@Jade, Re- Posting Rules and Decorum
Please read msg#74323 by the site moderator- Town Crier (Randy)
White Rose
A modest question about the rules
I love this site and deeply respect the rules. Rules well applied keep this an island of sanity in an internet swamped with klez's, bad vibes, spam, and mis-information.

Yet, I question the strict rules about mentioning gold stocks. What happens to some of the gold stocks is of great interest to many of the participants. I have bought hundreds of oz's of gold from our hosts. I intent to buy thousands more with the proceeds of some of the gold stocks (and some physical silver). Thus, if I get timely news about gold stocks and their ups and downs may put me in a position to buy more physical.

Perhaps we can have some guidelines. We can assume that all the participants have the ability to locate information about which stocks to buy. Anyone contemplating purchases or owning stock can be assumed to be able to track the ups and downs of the stock price. Thus I think any message intending to push a stock or give routine price information should be banned.

But if someone has some genuine information that may not be so obvious, such as a large block sale after-hours, that is worth mentioning, as long as the message stayed strictly to the facts.

The more useful and true information I find here, the more I will ultimately be able to buy here.
mikal
@Black Blade, Mr. Gresham, Waverider, JGM, etc.
What do you think about the new colored currency story from last week; is it really going to stop counterfeiters? Also do you think it will have a different denomination? Some currency watchers proposed that possibility for the current bills, when they were new- take a peek at the lower right hand corner, backside. They observed: 1) that the different bills' denomination is set-off by itself, outside the traditional border, with very plain numerals and nothing i the background 2) this has never been done in the US before 3) this has been done in other countries that devalued 4) the space could be used for a new imprint.
YGM
More Positive GATA News.....
http:www.gata.org/Snipped from Bills Cafe Report this evening.....

Samex CEO Jeff Dahl informs me that the GATA/Samex joint promotion of the real gold story to the Chinese investment community is moving right along. A 30,000 email blast to Chinese investors announcing www.GATAChinese.org went out last Friday and Frank Veneroso's supply/demand analysis went up today:

http://www.gatachinese.org/essay02.html

Chinese investors around the world are being alerted to the real size of the gold loans/swaps and what that means.

Next week the Chinese World Net financial newspaper is doing a front page story on GATA. That will also be read all over the Chinese speaking world. Nice work Jeff.
----------------------------------------------------

**The thought of even a few thousand Chinese buying Physical makes my heart flutter. A few 100 thousand would be
surreal......YGM
mikal
@White Rose
That is very interesting. Also let me thank you, for supporting USAGOLD generously. It just goes to show you that posters such as Jade, if they know the rules, are nonetheless willing to violate them for someone's good. Very understandable. But please resolve the concern you have addressed, when stock information suddenly crosses the line between ordinary and indispensable- who's responsibility is it to decide? MK's, of course, and inside, you knew that all along. Thanks for listening. Mikal
slingshot
New Funny Money
Colored Red I PresumeThe news of this new red colored money has been around for sometime. It is suppose to be in a vault in Texas. How about that. As to its purpose I have heard a few reasons.

That this currency will only be circulated inside the US.
That besides thwarthing counterfeiting it will bring hidden money to the surface as per drug money and cash not reported to the IRS.
More recent is the devaluation factor.
All this to be accomplished within a time frame.
This red money will only appear when thing have really gone bad.

Gold goes to $1000.00 an oz and the government states you have to turn in your green for red. Hmmmm.

Slingshot---------------------<>
Black Blade
mikal

I don't know much about the currency story, but if things continue as they are, I would not be surprised to see advertisements for Subway, McDonald's, Nike, etc. or even coupons on any available space on our currency. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Trapper
Slingshot
I have it from one of best sources that something big is in the wind. In the past when new notes were put into use the old ones were just left there and were destroyed as they came into the bank being replaced with new ones. Now think about the counterfeiting ruse...say the gang is making it's own $20.00 1957 series notes and the goverment changes to 1967 type notes, what do we do make new 1967 plates? NO. We still use our old ones as they are still legal notes. This has been bs for a long time, oh it's JUST about counterfeiting. I hear this time we will turn in the old cash. But wait we have gold right, not so fast very soon we will have to furnish ssn for all buys, you must already give your number for 10k sale but it will on everything. Don't belive the hype that collectors coins will be exempt from the records either. All of this is from the terror bills being passed both fed and states. Michigan just passed theirs and the state police can come in at any time without a warrant search even if you are not home and do not have to tell you there were there. Worse gold is going to be considered a terror tool. Oh yes my friend live very small.
RJ
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
The Geyser in London.
What is most significant to me is the sharp pure vertical stair-step up in London to the 308 price level. It's no winding slow "willy nilly" moving up like a sheep in the sun. That's Stair step #1, Crisp and clean. It's wax on a new POG of boots. The squarer the step, the more its "fallback resistance" is. When we see buying in Australia it will be history. They seem to usually be net sellers from my past observations. So let's be a bit happy about our little pop-up spike because it's all we've got, and we're making it work, cuz it's doing it's little job of sparking on the kindling that seems a little wet, but we're all feeling a little bit cold ............ramble, ramble, ramble.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Be careful with that pointy thing... somebody could lose an eye.


Hi. Randy here. Hopefully this act of bravery doesn't backfire by spiralling out of control under a deluge of additional special requests, but Solomon Weaver submitted this chart by e-mail, requesting that I work my online magic to make it appear within the body of today's forum for posterity. What the heck. You only live once, right?

Solomon's comments: "would you consider dropping this one in so it will be preserved for historic purposes? I pulled this down from the INO.com site, but as a link it will update hourly and that beautiful little spike will just slide on by...
Does not today's action look like the common pattern of buying around the world and selling in the USA?"

Gandalf the White
Thanks T.C. for the LINK !!! <;-)
http://www.shef.ac.uk/~cm1jwb/lotrdvd.htmTownCrier (04/25/02; 14:03:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74320)
"Howard, its Dermot... there are brains on the floor in here".

TownCrier
White Rose -- grey areas and slippery slopes
Your (very legitimate) concerns, summarized:
"I question the strict rules about mentioning [i.e., promoting] gold stocks. ...if I get timely news about gold stocks and their ups and downs may put me in a position to buy more physical. ...The more useful and true information I find here, the more I will ultimately be able to buy here."

Seems true enough. But where do we draw the line when it comes to making the money in which people ultimately diversify some of it into gold?

One of my fondest acquaintances that I was fortunate to meet through this venue is also a good customer of Centennial Precious Metals. For discussion purposes, let's just say that he is a manufacturer of diesel engines. That's how he makes his money. And sure enough, "the more useful and true information" he can find here about metallurgy and thermodynamics as they affect the performance of engines, the more he will ultimately prosper and be able to support our business. But dare we go there?

Another favorite of mine is a singer in a prominant rock band. Should we then delve here into the latest commercial trends in popular music for his money-making benefit?

Some are doctors. Should we also then delve into pharmaceuticals for their better prosperity?

No, probably not.

I think this site is pretty much on target as is -- focusing on the specific fundamental matters of diversification and latest economic developments that may influence the level of diversification that may be in order for your region of the world. Centennial has clients making their primary earnings in all feilds of employment in America, Canada, Europe, and Australia.

The fact that a handful of people here might be using various facets of the gold industry as their money-making avenue does not warrant a special exception. The doctors, rock stars, and captains of industry would surely become bored with the various corporate affairs of gold miners and their industry as an investment in particular.

To be sure, fair game for discussion continues to be their hedging practices as it affects the free market price not only of their current output but also the many existing tonnes that were mined and are now in someone's possession long before these miners were born. Their stock price is largely irrelevant, that is, until perhaps they go bankrupt and cease to add supply to the market.

I hope this helps keep us on track for continuing discussion. Each of the thousands of forums on the internet must fill a unique niche, or else they cease to be of practical relevance -- just another room full of people talking about everything under the sun.

Randy
Operative
In Hindsight, this man was Right ON !!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey051601.htmlAbove link is to an article dated May 15, 2001. The author has proven extremely accurate with his forecast of gold stocks leading the price of gold higher. His article is worth a read, IMHO. (Let's hope with his accuracy, he does not enter the fun and games here at USAGOLD or the rest of us wont have a prayer. )
Operative
Census Economic Briefing Room
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/briefroom/BriefRmAll this talk of recovery, etc
Not seeing it at this link.
Operative
If CNBC had been around from 1927-1933 here is some of the talking heads comments.

1."We will not have any more crashes in
our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

2."I cannot help but raise a dissenting
voice to statements that we are living
in a fool's paradise, and that
prosperity in this country must
necessarily diminish and recede in the
near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New
York Stock Exchange, January 12,
1928

"There will be no interruption of our
permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce
Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

3."No Congress of the United States
ever assembled, on surveying the state
of the Union, has met with a more
pleasing prospect than that which
appears at the present time. In the
domestic field there is tranquility and
contentment...and the highest record
of years of prosperity. In the foreign
field there is peace, the goodwill which
comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

4."There may be a recession in stock
prices, but not anything in the nature
of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist
, New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

5."Stock prices have reached what looks
like a permanently high plateau. I do
not feel there will be soon if ever a 50
or 60 point break from present levels,
such as (bears) have predicted. I
expect to see the stock market a good
deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics,
Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much
effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of
Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago,
October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the
break of yesterday... I have no fear of
another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the
Equitable Trust Company), quoted in
NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall
Street is sound, and that for people
who can afford to pay for them
outright, good stocks are cheap at
these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter
quoted in The New York Times, Friday,
October 25, 1929

6."This is the time to buy stocks. This is
the time to recall the words of the
late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is
bearish on America will go broke.
Within a few days there is likely to be
a bear panic rather than a bull panic.
Many of the low prices as a result of
this hysterical selling are not likely to
be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as
quoted in the New York Herald
Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now
will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in
the New York Herald Tribune,
October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are
now buying stocks... Unless we are to
have a panic -- which no one seriously
believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in
October 1929

7."The decline is in paper values, not in
tangible goods and services...America
is now in the eighth year of prosperity
as commercially defined. The former
great periods of prosperity in America
averaged eleven years. On this basis
we now have three more years to go
before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist
and author), NY Herald Tribune,
November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from
Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2,
1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean
that there will be any general or
serious business depression... For six
years American business has been
diverting a substantial part of its
attention, its energies and its
resources on the speculative game...
Now that irrelevant, alien and
hazardous adventure is over. Business
has come home again, back to its job,
providentially unscathed, sound in wind
and limb, financially stronger than ever
before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that
the slump in stock prices will prove an
intermediate movement and not the
precursor of a business depression
such as would entail prolonged further
liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES),
November 2, 1929

8."... a serious depression seems
improbable; [we expect] recovery of
business next spring, with further
improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock
Market will probably not be long, only a
few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of
Economics at Yale University,
November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of
this country, this Wall Street panic
will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block
newspaper chain), editorial, November
15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to
Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

9."I see nothing in the present situation
that is either menacing or warrants
pessimism... I have every confidence
that there will be a revival of activity
in the spring, and that during this
coming year the country will make
steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of
the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these
measures we have reestablished
confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment
year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's
Forecast, December 1929

10."For the immediate future, at least,
the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in
early 1930

11."...there are indications that the
severest phase of the recession is
over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan
18, 1930

12."There is nothing in the situation to be
disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew
Mellon, Feb 1930

13."The spring of 1930 marks the end of
a period of grave concern...American
business is steadily coming back to a
normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's
National Business Survey Conference,
Mar 16, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930

14."... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

15."While the crash only took place six
months ago, I am convinced we have
now passed through the worst -- and
with continued unity of effort we shall
rapidly recover. There has been no
significant bank or industrial failure.
That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the
United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery
forecast in our letters of last
December and November should clearly
be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days
too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a
delegation requesting a public works
program to help speed the recovery,
June 1930

16."... irregular and conflicting movements
of business should soon give way to a
sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

17."... the present depression has about
spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

18."We are now near the end of the
declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

19."Stabilization at [present] levels is
clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

20."All safe deposit boxes in banks or
financial institutions have been
sealed... and may only be opened in the
presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Colin J. Seymour, June 2001
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking
20 June 2001











shelllus
coppock curve for gold bull top?
can anyone make a chart of a daily gold fund [inivx or userx] with a Coppock curve back to 1976? i only have data back to 1986 on metastock---god, it identified the beginings and tops of bulls beautifully-- at oscillator levels tops and extent of coppock move up for tops, and the lows with a divergence--i want to see if worked on 1980 and 1982 bull--might be great help to us in our next great problem--when to sell!

Black Blade
A few choice excerpts from JS Kaplan (April 8, 2002):

SUMMARY: My current outlook for gold collectibles and gold itself remains SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH. My outlook for gold mining shares remains STRONGLY BEARISH. Gold shares appear to have made a euphoric peak on the morning of Tuesday, April 2, 2002, with a near record concentration of call buying on individual gold mining shares. Put buying has finally begun to appear in recent days, though at quite modest levels. It will be very important to see how the traders� commitments for gold, which most recently showed commercials net short nearly 72 thousand contracts, improve as the gold price declines.

Traders� commitments for gold and silver, as well as for most currencies, point toward a decline in gold prices and gains for the dollar versus the euro, Swiss franc, British pound, and Australian dollar, all of which would be negative for gold.

KAPLAN�S CORNER: QUESTION: Are there any changes to your investment strategy? ANSWER: My latest modification is to be long U.S. equities, which are oversold and likely to bounce through the morning of Thursday, April 18. At that time, assuming that euphoria has returned to the stock market, it will probably be time to purchase puts on QQQ and also buy zero-coupon long-dated U.S. Treasuries. I am maintaining a modest short position in gold mining shares in anticipation of a general decline in precious metals valuations over the next several weeks.


Black Blade: Yeah, that worked out well. I would say that he's been a bit off. Also, the BoE hasn't been tootin its horn lately about the great gains they made by selling about 400 tons of Gold at about $275/oz. Hmmm�

TownCrier
Mr. Operative, this might be more graphically appropriate than your #74346
chttp://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/prognost.htmlThe groundwork has been laid, and necessary permissions granted.

Enjoy.

R.
The CoinGuy
TC, you have an extra C, on the front of that URL
Interesting Though...


The Coinguy
Black Blade
Gold To Make Run At $325 � Analyst
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020426/15/2ol4h.html
Snippit:

President of U.S.-based Constantinople Advisors John Mesrobian sees gold making run at $325/oz in near future, meeting some resistance between $310-$315/oz; attributes continued strong interest to softer USD, falling equities markets and rising oil prices. Adds shorting gold at moment very risky, considering "wild cards" that could push prices even higher, such as possible terrorist attacks, full-blown war in Middle East. Gold at $307.65/oz, unchanged from late yesterday NY. (JSH)

Black Blade: Maybe so. However, London just opened so expect a full court press to beat down the POG.
Black Blade
Dollar Under Siege
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020426/markets_forex_1.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar was under siege in Asian trading on Friday with Japanese officials making only vague noises about support while formerly loyal investors fretted over the uncertain pace of U.S. recovery. In late Asian trade the dollar was being pressed at 128.60 yen having bounced from 128.15 lows offshore only to meet fresh offers from Japanese exporters and a Swiss name at 129.92.

Black Blade: There is a lot of pressure on the US administration to let the US Dollar float lower for the sake of the US economy.

Black Blade
Gold boom remains intact
http://m1.mny.co.za/mnsprds.nsf/Current/C2256A2A0053110AC2256BA5005270A6?OpenDocument
Snippit:

Making money out of gold used to be a no-brainer. It was simply a case of waiting for the metal price to lift its head and then taking a short position using spreads or gold related warrants. Inevitably the surge would prove to be unsustainable and gold would head straight back to whence it came. But in the past year that cash cow has, to a large extent, dried up for bullion bears. Now the momentum is clearly trending upwards with gold managing to hold above $300 level with relative ease. It's also a trend that is likely to continue according to analysts that ply their trade scrutinising charts. A snap poll of some of South Africa's leading technical analysts suggests that a target price of $330 per ounce might not be far off.


Black Blade: Only last week analysts were predicting a price of $305/oz. Now they are upping the price.
Black Blade
Gold group 'bearish on Japanese banks'
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020425001433&query=gold
Snippit:

A collapse of Japan's strained banking sector offers one of the strongest chances of a continued rise in gold prices in the second half of this year, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services. "I'm bearish about the Japanese banking sector. It would only have to move a fraction of its assets into gold to produce a marked effect (on the gold price)," said Paul Walker, a director of the London-based precious metals research consultancy.


Black Blade: Insolvent Japanese banks are very likely to collapse in similar fashion to that of Argentina. The Japanese banking sector is loaded with crushing debt that will never be repaid.
Spartacus
Big Mac Index
http://www.forexnews.com/outgoing/link/wraphead.asp?loc=http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x36865858
---Despite the falls over recent months, the Economist's Big Mac Index, which tries to measure the value of currencies by comparing the price of a Big Mac in 120 countries around the world, judges the US dollar to be more overvalued than ever before.---

Belgian
POG >>> VOG
The "price" of Gold has NOT been rising !!! It was the dollar-paper that declined !!! The *VALUE* of Gold remained the same and has been confirmed against the last standing paper currency, named US$.
The VALUE of Gold should NEVER be questioned...but the worthlesness of confetti should be questioned all the time.

The *TRUE* Valuation of Gold hasn't yet started. It is the worthlesness of the dollar that has embarked on its *FINAL*
wave of complete depreciation. The dollar had too much pretention for too long, as a False reserve. Time out. Wave down *C* from 1985 ATH has been confirmed as a trend-starter.

Now we only have to look out at the point where Precious Gold decouples from the false dollar reserve and embarks on its true Valuation, without any regards for the dollar purchasing power/weakness.

Saudi oil came to Texas with a very clear message (look at Bush's bodylanguage) : If you want some more survival time for your economy (dollar-currency)...listen and comply with what Arabian oil is communicating quasi publicly and with a lot of affirmation ! With us or against us !?

Yesterday's intervieuw with H. Kissinger (fluent in German) on German tele was significant ! The almighty US should take care not to collapse under its own imperial weight !

As MK pointed out, the globe is managing in a concerted way, the orderly (?) retreat of the US$-reserve-currency !
During this process, Gold's *Value* will slowly shift into the spotlight. And it is at TG's breaking point of runaway hyperinflation's exposure (!!!) that VOG will decouple from the US$-reserve. Impossible to pinpoint when and at what point this will be. Up to the euro-architects to decide with or without the dollar-block. VOG will rise more than POG and all paper will be into Gold's shadow.

This scenario is still ignored by ALL paper hypers ! They keep on rambling about POG. And that's perfect !
Black Blade
Investors applaud gold hedge cutting
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=21271
Snippit:

Gold miners are getting a pat on the back from investors for a nice piece of housekeeping � trimming their hedges, analysts said. �Hedge cutting� has been hailed as good husbandry and has helped sparked the gold price close to its highest level in more than two years and led to a surge in gold equity stocks.

A laudable policy during the gold bear market of the last few years, hedging has proved a dead loss since gold prices have cleanly broken through the key $300 a troy ounce level on jitters over the Middle East and the safety of Japan's financial system. With bullion in the ascendant, leading gold miners such as South Africa's AngloGold have called time on their hedge books containing fixed prices for future output. Now it is time to take advantage of expected higher prices.


Black Blade: The day of the hedger is over. Notice that the hedgers share prices have lagged behind the shares of non-hedgers.
Black Blade
Gold Moving Higher
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is knocking on $310.00/oz. this morning. This could get interesting as more corporate losses (lowered earnings?) are due to be reported. The USD is looking weaker and the equities markets are in doubt as more scandals and official probes are announced. Toss in an insolvent banking sector in Japan and Argentina, and we have a recipe for economic disaster. An excellent breeding ground for higher Gold prices.

- Black Blade
miner49er
Belgian @ 74356
Good posts of late, Sir Belgian... I took a (very) brief look around for any news or excerpts on Dr. K's interview, but had no luck. Also, am at an extreme premium for time right now... Have you (or CB2) seen any links about it? I always find the Dr.'s words very informative.

All the best, and thank you for your thoughts...

miner
Spartacus
Gross domestic product
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APMlIUBNqVS5TLiBF
Washington, April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter at the fastest rate in more than two years, a sign the recession that began in March of 2001 is over. Gross domestic product, the total value of all goods and services produced in the nation, rose at a 5.8 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said. That was faster than expected and the biggest increase since the last three months of 1999. ---

But...

---Businesses reduced stockpiles at a $36.2 billion annual pace in the first quarter after cutting a record $119.3 billion from October to December. That adjustment contributed 3.1 percentage points, the most since the fourth quarter of 1987, to the increase in GDP.

That also suggests the magnitude of the swing in inventory levels in coming quarters will be less and won't provide much of a boost to economic growth, economists said.---



Boilermaker
SJ Kaplan Gold Forecasts
Here is what SJK had to say about gold three years ago;

LONG-TERM (ONE- TO THREE-YEAR) OUTLOOK:

The price of gold exceeded $420 an ounce in 1989, 1990, and 1991, but could not close above $425 in either year. In 1988 the yellow metal briefly touched $500. Therefore, once gold closes above $425 an ounce, this event will trigger an upside breakout causing the price to surge rapidly to $500. Notice that exactly this kind of upside breakout occurred in 1997 first in palladium, then platinum, and finally in silver. As euphoria begets euphoria, the stock market blowoff will also act as a stimulative spur to increase the likelihood of such a move happening in gold. The resulting public attention and likely insider selling will cause a counter-reaction, causing it to retreat all the way back to $380 before rallying again.

When gold reaches $500 an ounce, the XAU will make a euphoric top around 270. This will happen three to nine months after the S&P 500 begins to decline. The subsequent drop to $380 will cause the XAU to make an intermediate-term bottom near 130. That will occur as stability is temporarily restored to the general equity markets. (Since platinum touched $500 per ounce in 1997 and then fell back, this makes a useful technical guide for gold.)

VERY LONG-TERM (FIVE- TO TWELVE-YEAR) OUTLOOK:

In January 1980, spot gold traded at $850 per troy ounce while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was about 800. Late Friday afternoon, March 20, 1998, the Dow to gold ratio went slightly above 30.6, a new all-time record. As the bear market approaches its inevitable nadir sometime in the next decade, we might see the Dow at 1850 (dividend yield 7.5%, indicating a moderately severe bear market bottom) and gold at $1000 per ounce (adjusted for inflation, equal to its average price from 1979 through 1983). Since panic bottoms often follow euphoric tops, and vice versa, one could imagine the Dow at 1485 (dividend yield 9%; it was 11% in July 1932) with gold at $1500 per ounce (adjusted for inflation, its January 1980 peak will top $2000 per ounce in a few years). If these numbers seem absurd, consider what an investor from any month in the early 1980s would think upon getting a sneak preview of the financial section of today's newspaper!

Boilermaker comment; Apparently since this was written Jon
- has had a lobotomy, or
- has had too many mind expanding episodes, or
- was recruited by the cabalistas.
Operative
TownCrier
Thank You for the link. All I had was the written comments. Your link provides much more information, including the copyright of the author. I plea my mea culpa for my ignorance of the source on this one.
Operative
Asking for Confirmation from anyone ???
Can anyone confirm what I believe is true: that the GDP, Gross Domestic Product, includes the US. Government Budget in it's total? If this is indeed correct, than like many other "official" government figures, CPI, Unemployment, etc, it is a tainted number to be highly suspect. If correct, then basically I expect the GDP to climb consistently in years ahead since the government is on a spending spree unmatched since the 1960's.
Belgian
@ Miner49er (H.Kissinger)
You haven't missed a thing with the Kissinger intervieuw.
I've only cited that one particular statement on US external policies made by him. The remaining of the intervieuw was more or less a soft accusation on his adress about human rights. A questioning on how well he sleeps at night and if he can look at himself in the mirror when shaving. This very intelligent and driven person never seems to question the (human) consequences of his services provided to state(s) and private enterprises. But so never did the inventors, builders and launchers of the atomic bomb(s).
So, do you feel the pressure on the US from crownprince Abdullaha AND H.Kissinger touring arouns in Euroland, inclusive the intervieuw with human rights sauce ? I am putting the Irak invasion into question from now on and will not be surprised if a serious oil embargo would suddely bite into our prosperity, when things should turn out badly. 1971 ambiance !
Operative
California's Cure For Road Rage
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=27391The residents of Ca get to keep thier 50 cals !!
Please note that I am a firm believer in the right to bear arms and have a collection of my own. But is it really a good idea to let those west coast types keep thier 50 cal sniper rifles? Course, when the gov decides to consficate gold one day, I suppose you could gold plate the 6 inch 50 cal round and claim that it is only ammo.
goldquest
Congressman Ron Paul Predictions
http://www.rense.com/general24/paul.htmGold will play a big part if any of his predictions come true.
sector
@Black Blade--About the Japanese Bank's "Crushing Debt"
or..."How to Implement a Final Solution"Since there is now [Post April 2002 Rules change]about $620 Billion in uninsured deposits, the government has the opportunity to selectively "Fail" or "Nationalize" the worst performing banks thereby implementing a "Bailout" with the life savings of their elderly citizens. Upon natinalization, the banks will absorb the uninsured deposits in order to pay down bad loans.

There can be no doubt as to this strategy. The recent rise in yen/dollar value is but a temporary ruse to lull the unsuspecting, trusting masses into inaction and away from gold. The yen will fall again to support their industrial export base.

The only question remaining is whether the nationalization process will be en mass or by a thousand timed cuts.

Argentina's financial throes are therefore all the more crucial as an indicator of the Japanese future...and ours.
nickel62
sector could you please repost your prior comments
Except this time in Japanese? Thanks...if the awareness of what you are saying is ever able to take hold in Tokyo then we will have arrived.
nickel62
Okay market close on friday at my predicted price of $308.30!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh was that last week the contest ended....?????
RobotGuy
I think she'll test 310 today.
Gandalf the White
HIGH NOON in NY !
THIS is time for SPIKE !!!
Jump SPOT, JUMP !!!
<;-)
nickel62
Okay it is $308.30 Bid !!!!
Do I hear $310 ?????? $310 bid anyone, do I hear $310?
RobotGuy
310.20, just to remember what it looks like.
G$
(No Subject)
Any one hearing what is going on? Technical trading? Breaking news?


G$
Sierra Madre
Sector - would you spell it out, please?

I refer to your post 74367 at 9.22MT today, where you state your opinion that the Japanese Government, "Upon nationalization, the banks will absorb the uninsured deposits in order to pay down bad loans."

In accounting, one uses debits and credits; just what do you mean by "absorb" in this case? How does the "absorbing" turn into "pay down bad loans"?

As my son Sierra says of me, "He is a slow learner, but, he learns eventually - just give him time."

Please help this slow learner!

REgards

Sierra
RobotGuy
"G" Money
I think it's regular Friday afternoon preparation for the possibility of the unknown over the weekend. Friday is your last chance to cover your @ss in case something bizarre might happen over the weekend. Not to mention, we've been slowly climbing all week, I'm sure serious investors are starting to come to terms with the fact that 310 isn't that much more than 306 if it means buying peace of mind.
USAGOLD
All. . .
Isn't that interesting. The boys in the City head for the pubs (TGIF). . . .and gold jumps.
goldquest
A Full
Golden moon tonight!
nickel62
$311 BID !!!!!!!!!!
Do I hear $320????? $320 anyone? Do I hear $320????
Ulysses
nickle62 re your 09:31
http//wwwusagold.comExcellent idea! Can you imagine what kind of gold bull run you could accelerate if this and other pro-gold sites were interchangeable with the Japanese language? Is that type of software available?
nickel62
Katachama is sold in a english to Japanese version I think
I was really with tongue in cheek trying to see if we could find some readership that is resident in Japan to maybe increase the USA gold site distribution. Many of us have friends there, but I don't know of their access to sites like USA GOLD. Maybe our host could comment if any of the lurkers are from Japan. I liked my second post better since I also was kidding since gold was $307.75 when I posted and the market seems to have heard my call. Happenstance no doubt but hey anything that works since it really is $311 bid currently.
Truthcaster
See spot run!!
Nice move to the upside in gold.. See spot run..
$311.20 (o: Oh yea!!!
nickel62
$311.20 !!!!!!!!!!!
With apolegies to the long lost CHEESEHEAD TO DAAAAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!
Christian
(No Subject)
US government budget has to be included in the GDP numbers. Without it the economy comes to a standstill. The one world government, the plan is the founding of Novus Ordo Seclorum. One world government leaders own the FED and have full control of the money and credit machinery of the USA via the gold short position. HINT: SEPT 16 Bush 41 visits New York City pictured with firefighter wearing a helmit with 164 when added =11. There is going to be a big bang in the USA on 6-04-02. 911= 9+1+1=11 Just how many times must Bush 41 say,"nations as we know will be obsolete; all countries will recognize a simple, global authority. Why is it that the IMF has told our Treasury that gold must rise in price in order for them to bail out Argentina. The IMF in bailing out Argentina will trade gold it has for Argentina gold in the ground, in the same way the IMF has settled our trade deficit with our gold in the ground. The IMF is smart enough to know that it has to increase the price of gold in order to make it possible for Argentina to get that gold from the ground. This is also true with our ability to continue to settle our trade deficit with gold. The USA is by far the biggest exporter of gold for settlement of trade deficit. This will work as long as the FED can buy gold from stupid countries who are dum enough to accept our worthless script. Our gold or oil imports cost nothing as long as these countries take our toilet paper script and invest it in our financial markets. The problem starts when they buy gold and compete with the very gold we are trying to buy with our script. They are using the very same script to buy their gold with.....
nickel62
Oldtimers....THE GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD USED TO POST HERE DIDN'T HE?
My imagination is not fooling me is it? The Golden Cheesehead did used to post at this site didn't he. I remember his posts of his enthusiasm

TOOOOOOOOOOOO DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!

for a gold spike up day quite well, but frankly can't remember if it was here or next door that I remember it from.
Mr Gresham
Naps
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=1&t=l&a=1I think I'll take more of 'em -- I like what happens while I'm out!
nickel62
GOLD $311.30 LAST
Shamelessly excited....I hope every short in the gold market is currently getting a phone call from his margin broker....Hello?
About that gold we lent you. Would you please see if you could have it back by monday....Yes that would be this monday....Do you think that would be a problem? No. Well that is fine. We will see you on monday then. .... What do you mean he just jumped?
G$
(No Subject)
Nice to see gold charging up in the last few minutes rather than backing off.

G$
RobotGuy
I am surprised the COMEX didn't close early today as they usually do on Fridays.
nickel62
$311.40 Bid !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Do I hear $320?????????
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one ELSE will do it FOR you. USAGOLD/Centennial is here to help!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html


Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, an event on the far side of the world (even while you sleep or play) can adversely affect the performance-credibility of your commercial positions and financial portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its reliable "form and function" -- a steadfast financial commodity with value immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

nickel62
$311.90 Last trade price.....
Can we see $320 at the close...????
nickel62
$312.20 Last trade
Closing strong so far..must be significant for those trying to cover..
TownCrier
"We shall have the hyperinflation."
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1100657Excerpts: (click URL above for more)

(The Economist - Apr 26) -- ...Government figures released on April 26th showed that GDP grew by 5.8% at an annual rate in the first three months of this year.

A closer look at the elements which make up the GDP figure ...a large rise in government spending. Defence for instance, rose at a 20% annual rate, the fastest since the Vietnam War. The combination of higher government spending and tax cuts is likely to continue to contribute to the recovery over the coming months, though there are limits to how long that can be the main engine of growth.

...Even before the latest figures were published, Mr Greenspan had begun to consider the appropriate monetary policy for recovery. The Fed's job is to nurture the economy at this still-delicate stage in the cycle while at the same time keeping a careful eye on the threat of nascent inflation. It is a tricky balance to strike...getting the policy response right can be especially important when economies are at a turning point: moving too soon or too late could undermine the recovery, or allow inflationary pressures to build up.

As recent forecasts from both the IMF and the OECD made clear, a sustained American economic recovery this year and next is important for the rest of the world, not just for America. The United States remains the engine of global economic growth. There is a lot riding on what Mr Greenspan and his colleagues decide. That is a pretty hefty weight for anyone's shoulders.
---------

And what if Atlas shrugged?

R.
Boilermaker
Louis Rukeyser's Friday Nite Live
I won't be near a TV tonight but am hoping someone will report on that white-haired old stock pimp loved by so many of us. Perhaps he will be kissed by Abby J and turn into a toad sitting on his overstuffed leather chair.

Not a bad day for us "bugs".
TownCrier
HEADLINE: Has tide turned for the dollar?
http://www.iht.com/articles/55982.htmExcerpts: (click URL above for more)

International Herald Tribune -- April 26, 2002

If currency forecasting is the graveyard of the economics profession, the seemingly indefatigable U.S. dollar must have killed many a career over the last few years. Each time strategists predicted that the dollar was headed for a fall, it bounced back strongly against the euro and the yen. Now, as the dollar slowly weakens anew, some analysts are cautiously saying that this time it could be different.

...Few analysts, having been burned in the past, are willing to predict a sharp decline in the dollar. ...Still, analysts see signs of a shift in sentiment. The U.S. stock market, which rebounded strongly after Sept. 11, has stagnated more recently, hurt by questions about accounting practices at American corporations...

...economists are renewing their warning that the ever-growing U.S. current account deficit, which widened to $417 billion last year, could further undermine the dollar.
---------

Danger to the left, danger to the right. Dial gold right down the center.

R.
Gandalf the White
WHAT a DIFFERENCE a week makes in the POG !!
GC2M Settlement Price on 4/26/02 was 312.1!!!!!AND THE last weeks Guesses had
$$$$ 312.3 $$$$ darkhorse (04/13/02; 23:26:38MT msg#: 73357
$$$$ 311.9 $$$$ goldenpeace (04/14/02; 08:34:55MT msg#: 73375
===
<;-)
TownCrier
HEADLINE: Stronger rand zaps gold stocks
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=qw1019838240730B256&set_id=60(April 26 2002 -- Johannesburg) - The rand recovered to R10,70 to the dollar by late Friday, which saw the JSE gold sector drop by 3,7 percent despite the price of bullion holding steady.
--------

A rising tide does not necessarily float all boats. Bear in mind, it really depends upon which beach you're standing.

R.
Old Yeller
Argentina
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1101482
As the implications sink in for debt ridden economies and onerous government future obligations,the spotlight may soon be moved to the main stage.

In America,they will always have fresh money on hand,unlike Argentina.No matter,the end result will be the same.

Note the assertion that even God wants dollars;wrong.Fiat currency is not something that is high on God's list of mankind's honorable endeavors.
TownCrier
Check out this midday HEADLINE: "Gold Firm But Capped At $310"
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4247863667595083840New York, April 26 (OsterDowJones) - Comex Jun gold futures remained robust Friday morning and even entered fresh contract-high territory by probing resistance at the $310 per ounce mark mid-morning.

...The U.S. dollar made fresh 16-week lows against the euro of 1.1115 euros to render dollar-denominated gold cheaper and entice further physical demand out of the euro region.

..."things are not looking great in the equity market, the dollar is looking progressively weaker, and the tensions in the Middle East threaten to cause absolute chaos across the world so people are obviously hedging their bets," the dealer said. "Also, there seems to be a trend forming here that gold and gold stocks are going higher, and people just love being involved in an upwards trend," he added.

This source expected resistance at $310 to hold firm over the near term but come under close inspection next week...

Beyond $310, the next key level of resistance is seen at $320.
--------------

Well, judging from today's close versus those closing comments, gold seems to be ahead of schedule. Onward and upward?? What will Monday bring? For gold buyers considering the grand scheme of things, today is still an attractive price to accumulate...exchanging wayward paper "assets" for real assets.

R.
The Hoople
Boilermaker
Maybe Rukeyser will go on Smackdown against Gail Dudak. Speaking of Abby J. I haven't noticed her making any gutsy calls lately. Must be the Elliot Spitzer factor. Don't look for Ruky to flip any overlay charts up of gold vs. GE stock YTD. Wonder how many blue-haired investment clubs are still following him? Many are so destitute they can only shampoo the poodle every other week now.
R Powell
Happy Weekend !!!
http://money.cnn.com/funds June gold 312.1 +3.50
May Silver 465.2 +3.2
June Crude 27.15 +.42
June USD Index 115.30 -.45
XAU index (still trading) about 77 up approx 3.0
Stock market indexes are presently all negative with about 20 minutes to go.

The link comes from Jesse Livermore (forum next door) and list some fund gains YTD. All these funds have something in common and are (IMHO) indicators that POG and POS have some serious catching-up to do. Hopefully soon!
Happy weekend
Rich
Hipplebeck
Markets today
By the looks of things I would guess that the meeting between Bush and Abdullah didn't go too well.
darkhorse
@Gandalf #74397
See, I knew I was right on the price...everybody else is/was wrong about when the contract expired! (Do I at least get credit for trying?) :)
Black Blade
"Interesting" Day on Wall Street
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
In all, not a bad day for Gold and petroleum. The rest of the market took a dive as no one in their right mind wants to buy more equities this weekend ahead of next weeks economic data. There also appears to be a major shift in sentiment about Gold as far as the investing public is concerned - just wait until the momentum crowd jump on board.

Just heard an "interesting" comment on CNBC. Marci Rossell, the "perky" resident economist stated that the headline GDP number is really not as rosy as the number appears. Most of the increase in GDP was due to declining inventories. Also, she admitted that we really are in a Recession - that the 2 quarters of declining GDP is really a myth - and that the real important data is jobs. Using unemployment as a criteria, we are in a deepening Recession. An unemployment number for new claims above 400,000 is recessionary. Yesterday the number was 421,000 and last weeks number was revised upward to 452,000.

As always, get out of debt (as soon as possible), get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (just might not be cheap from here on out), get enough cash on hand for several months expenses (just look at Argentina), and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started (the 3 year drought will extend into this year and higher cost for fertilers, etc. are sure to increase).

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade

R Powell
darkhorse
What a great day!! Yes indeed you get credit. Being right in choosing between higher and lower is all that is required to profit. There isn't an analyst, economist, commodity broker or stockpicker alive that wouldn't be very happy to be able to just know whether up or down is currently correct.
Maybe I'll be right next Friday- $319.+
I think (IMHO) that it may take a little more time to hit Invisible Hand's guess.
CNBC just mentioned gold stocks. The secret is leaking out!
BC BN BG and silver too.
Happy weekend
Rich
Black Blade
hipplebeck - Abdullah-Dubya Meeting

You are right about the Bush-Abdullah meeting. The crown prince informed Dubya that he risks alienating the Arab world by giving unqualified support to Israel at the expense of the Arab world. Of course the Saudi royals are scared to death. They know that there is a lot of discontent among their people. They hate the west and all that it stands for. We infidels are not exactly the most moral people as far as they are concerned and add in a mix of radical Islamic fundamentalism (like Wahabbism) and the problem is obvious.

Osama Bin Laden has been hoping to create a situation where the Royals would be overthrown and a more radical Islamic government take over. He also wants the POO to rise to $144.00/bbl and for the Saudi people to be repatriated for past barrels sold. He has a lot of support in Saudi. The crown prince has no choice but to plead for a more conciliatory position from the US and Europe. The day of the Royals is coming to an end and they know it. There is a method to their investing overseas and stocking up of foreign bank accounts. They are making preparations for that eventual exit from center stage.

That is the reason that daily reports of possibly using the "Oil Weapon" come to the surface. They know that if they do not get some concessions, they can take down the US economy if they feel in danger. They would rather have support from their people to stay in power even if it means economic hardship at home. The truly hardcore Islamists don't care about the wealth as much. Remember � 15 of the 9-11 terrorists were Saudi.

Dubya is caught in a vise. He either continues to support Sharon and the occupation, or he concedes to some degree to the Arab demands (if only publicly). On the other hand it could strengthen his position for his energy plan- especially so if the Arab OPEC producers turn off the "spigot". However, that could destabilize the ME region further.

I will hopefully cover this in more detail when I get time. Cheers!

- Black Blade
YGM
Golden Thoughts To Ponder........
By Great Thinkers....."The gold standard sooner or later will return with the force and inevitability of natural law, for it is the money of freedom and honesty."
-Hans F. Sennholz

"Every individual is a potential gold buyer, although he may not need the gold. It may be added to the store of personal wealth, and passed from generation to generation as an object of family wealth. There is no other economic good as marketable as gold."
-Hans F. Sennholz

"To prefer paper to gold is to prefer high risk to lower risk, instability to stability, inflation to steady long term values, a system of very low grade performance to a system of higher, though not perfect performance."
-William Rees-Mogg

"Start now buying gold coins, any kind, and hoarding them."
-Dr. John L. King

"The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independent of the changing, ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence."
-Ludwig von Mises

"Place 5 percent to 10 percent of your total assets in gold bullion and selected gold and silver coins. No one knows with certainty whether the coming depression will be inflationary or deflationary."
-James Dale Davidson

"The standard of living of the common man is higher in those countries which have the greatest number of wealthy entrepreneurs."
-Ludwig von Mises

"...there seems to be a correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises."
-Hans F. Sennholz

"I see a great future for gold and silver coins as the currency people may increasingly turn to when paper currencies begin to disintegrate."
-Murray M. Rothbard

"Nothing beats a little cash in a bear market, of course, and the oldest form of cash is gold."
-James Grant

"Gold is as steady as a rock, a standardbearer by which all currencies can be accurately measured."
-Mark Skousen

"Buy gold and sit on it. That is the key to success."
-Dr. Franz Pick

"Whenever an overall breakdown of a monetary or financial system occurs, return to gold always restores order, revives confidence and brings back prosperity."
-Donald Hoppe

"The possibility of a discriminatory capital-gains tax on gold 'profits,' or even of outright confiscation, cannot be wholly dismissed. We must remember that in 1933, when private citizens began to exercise their clear legal right to convert their Federal Reserve notes and gold certificates into gold, President Franklin D. Roosevelt suspended the conversion, ordered the citizens to exchange their gold for paper money, and made it illegal for private citizens to hold or own gold. In other words, the government not only broke its solemn and explicit pledge to convert its notes into gold on demand, but treated the holder (and dupe) who had taken the pledge seriously as the real culprit."
-Henry Hazlitt

"The authorities in the United States confiscated private gold holdings in the Depression of the 1930's. They may seek to do so again in the Depression of the 1990's."
-James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg
ax
USD AXINDEX BREAKS BELOW 100 MG !

AT THE CLOSE OF GOLD TRADING TODAY IN NEW YORK THE

US DOLLAR AS MEASURED BY THE AXINDEX DROPPED TO

99.88 MG (MILLIGRAMS) OF GOLD
goldenpeace
@Gandalf 74397
Am VERY happy to be correct (along with darkhorse) a week late!
Peace
Bowing
Blessings
Canuck
Wicked
Wild couple of days, special note that spot closed on its high today.

As the Blade man would say.... Hmmm.
mikal
Trail Guide's spring rains awaken the seed.
Trail Guide: May your travels be safe and satisfying, may you share this Table again soon, may you always be remembered. Shakespeare, MERCHANT OF VENICE IV,i: "The quality of mercy is not strained, It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven."
Canuck
The Durbanites (hedgers) are getting nervous
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Should get one more spike up.
The first stair step was sharp and vertical. The next one was at a slight angle. The next one may be at a lower angle yet. As to what I've seen studying breakouts for the past two years, they rarely occur in groups of two waves. We should get a third wave spike into the 320 zone + or - a few bucks. The stock market indexes are deteriorating, and another liquidity crisis is beginning to unravel. When all the hopeful longs are all filled up with stock, there is no one left to buy from the wave of coming sellers. It's the morasse of the bottom fishers.

As the senior manager taps the junior fund newby on the shoulder, "Hey, no more of that stuff!". "But it's so cheap!" "Yeah it's cheap and it isn't going up either". They don't know to hold or to sell but they won't be buying anymore troubled company stock. Back to establish short positions is what they are doing, bigtime. Why? Because the DOW is under 10,000. So it's headed to 9,000? No, try 7,000. Our new bottom fisher level. Complete with the new "pennystocks are the rage" kit. All the old names are there, some even have business models now. Oops, can't find it listed anymore, that's OK you can find in on the BB list.

What happens in a credit implosion is capital destruction. Keynesian Theory but in reverse. As people pull their money out of the system, it compounds the implosive effect along an exponential scale. "I don't have your money, get it from them, because they owe me". "We'll take your stuff and sell it!" Well no we won't because the markets are saturated and no one is buying anything they don't absolutely need. Everyone is selling but no one is buying because you can always buy it cheaper next week............except gold, whose demand is not rising on a linear curve BUT ON AN EXPONENTIAL CURVE!!!. Why? Because the manipulation has reduced mine production and supply of physical will dry up.

Brazil............we need to watch Brazil because it may go the way of Argentina. What will be the first signs of trouble? It's beyond me. I'm asking the brilliant ones and that includes you. Today it does. What is the difference between Brazil's financial picture vs Argentina's.
MarkeTalk
Boilermaker--Louis Ruykeyser
I just happened to turn on the TV when "Rooky" was giving his sermon on why Chicken Little was wrong about the stock market after all. Ruykeyser summarily dismissed the recent rise in gold as a mere nothing and then began his age-old mantra of touting stocks as the only road to wealth. I could only stomach a couple of minutes of his condescending attitude accompanied by that smartalecky trademark grin of his. Sorry I cannot report if he kissed Abby J, and we will have to read the papers to see if he retained his human form or was turned into a toad.
nickel62
Brazil is a huge economy that has already broken off its unreal fix with the US Dollar!
I am far from the smart one but have been to Brazil and think that the primary difference is that the currency is already worth fifty percent less than it was five years ago when it was semi frozen in a relationship with the US dollar. I do think that the inflationary situation will continue to worsen significantly in Brazil but I think they will have a different trajectory then Argentina which was frozen into the dollarization sceme way past the time it made any sense. Brazil's citizens are not blase enough to think that their currency might not continue to lose value and I think they are moving to protect themselves on a daily basis. This should make the approaching inflationary situation difficult but different then the Argentine.
darkhorse
@MK et. al.
Okay, I'm ready for the next contest...and I'll throw in the first bid at $8500/oz. I was off by only a week (and .20) this time; I'll be happy to, uh, "lose" by a week (and maybe a dollar or two) this time also!
MarkeTalk
Gauntlet-Runner2
I applaud your insight concerning the question about Brazil. In counseling my clientele here at Centennial, I have always pointed to Brazil as the lynchpin of the whole South American economy. Brazil is a real economic powerhouse in comparison to everyone else. Argentina is really an agricultural economy with very close ties to Brazil through the trading block known as the Mercosur. If my information is correct, Argentina is the second largest economy in South America.

While the bankers say that the two countries are unrelated in their economic performance and hence their country-risk ratings, that is only partly true. I don't pretend to have international expertise in this area but I do have one client out of New York who works for a large German bank and he tells me that not all is well. He specializes in restructuring South American sovereign-nation loans which are in the process of defaulting. Now if he is buying gold from me, doesn' t that tell you something!! His outlook for the region is not rosy and is downright pessimistic.

As far as tell-tale signs go regarding Brazil's potential default on its government debt, I would watch the government bond yields and the currency exchange rates. (Brazil seems to have been in a constant state of currency devaluation for the last 30 years.) You can find this information in the Financial Times--a truly great newspaper. You will have read the newspaper quite often in order to accustom yourself to the region so you can really understand what you are reading. By the way, when you read about Brazil's problems in the newspaper, the big money has already made its move. Don't think you will be able to outsmart billion dollar players. In my opinion, the price of gold is still the best barometer of where scared investment capital is heading, whether it be from Brazil or from Wall Street or (increasingly) from Main Street America.

GC
YGM
COMING SOON TO A THEATRE NEAR US....
REAL ARGENTINE TEARS.......(Full Article)
World > Americas
from the April 26, 2002 edition


CLOSED TO ALL: Argentine depositors bang in protest on a Buenos Aires bank facade.
ENRIQUE MARCARIAN/REUTERS



Argentines cling to last pesos

ATMs are empty, banks are closed, and the economics minister has resigned.

By Colin Barraclough | Special to The Christian Science Monitor

BUENOS AIRES � Argentina is suddenly the world's largest laboratory for a cashless society.
Since the Argentine government took the extraordinary step of closing the nation's banking system last weekend, the country's 36 million people have been plunged abruptly into penury. Automatic teller machines are empty. Bank doors are bolted shut. Perhaps for the first time in Argentina's history, lawyers and laborers, models and maids are experiencing a similar hardship.

Barraclough tells the story behind the story.

"People who were planning to go to Europe can't even go to the supermarket now," says Ver--nica Palmieri, a leading fashion illustrator.

The streets of Buenos Aires are normally teeming with night life. But an eerie quiet has settled on the capital, as diners, theater-goers, and party animals opt to stay home to save their pesos. "This is a disaster," explodes Omar Vlacich, a taxi driver, after hours of vainly trolling the streets in search of a customer. "It's so quiet, it's like the city died."

With no access to cash, Argentina's sophisticated and cosmopolitan middle classes are turning to the country's fastexpanding barter clubs, once the preserve of the jobless and desperate, to survive. The national daily newspaper Clar'n ran a cover story recently when a barter club opened in Barrio Norte, one of the most upscale neighborhoods in the capital.

Many saw the event as yet another sign of the death of the middle class. "A new group is emerging from the middle class in Argentina," says Sylvia Baez, a charity worker. "They're hungry, they have inadequate clothing, and they have anguish in their faces. We call them the 'new poor.' "

Until this week, the country's four-year recession has hurt most deeply those on the bottom rungs of society. With the jobless total reaching 20 percent, a currency whose value has plummeted by some 70 percent since January, and a threadbare welfare benefits system, real hunger has appeared for the first time in Latin America's second largest economy.

President Eduardo Duhalde halted all banking operations and foreign-exchange transactions, effectively closing the banks. Yesterday, Argentina's Senate voted to strengthen the banking freeze. Argentines have been going to court to gain access to their money. The legislation will allow the government to appeal any court ruling before the depositor can receive their money.

Mr. Duhalde had hoped the freeze would help prop up the country's banking system, reeling from the outflow of about $100 million a day as depositors sought to withdraw their savings before the value of the Argentine peso plummeted further.

But the move has inflicted hardship on all levels of Argentine society. "Even the privileged are feeling the pain now," says Ms. Baez, the charity worker.

"We'll survive, but it's not going to be easy," says Juan Maciel, a prominent lawyer. "I have seven employees depending on me, as well as the laborers at my dairy farm, and my family, of course. I'll try to give them each enough to survive for four or five days, but the truth is that I don't have much cash left."

Argentines have already endured a five-month partial banking freeze that has limited cash withdrawals to about $500 a month. The president's economy minister, Jorge Remes Lenicov, devised a plan to convert bank deposits into low-interest five- to 10-year bonds in lieu of cash, effectively forcing Argentines to lend to the government.

The plan collapsed in disarray on Tuesday when Remes resigned after failing to win political backing for his project. Argentina is seeking $9 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund to help stabilize the economic crisis. Testifying before the US Congress Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill expressed concern that Argentina wasn't on the right track.

"I'm not eating much at the moment," says Sidney Page, a sculptor and film student. "I've eaten almost everything in the fridge. The only place I can afford is the discounted food section at the local supermarket, and I have no idea how long I can afford to go even there."

The country's cash shortage has become so acute that many of the immigrants who once flocked to Argentina for work from Paraguay, Bolivia, and Peru have opted to return home.

Others are just scraping by. "I have 50 pesos ($16) in cash, which might last me for two weeks if I'm careful," says Dionisia Acu--a, a Paraguayan who works as a maid for a prosperous Buenos Aires family. "I can't ask my boss for more because she has no cash either."

Even those too poor to hold a bank account are feeling the pressure. Susanna Ortega, a homeless mother of two, spends her days rummaging through trash cans for food, or anything else of value. "I usually ask around for money, or ask at shops if they can spare some meat or bread," she says. "No one can spare anything at the moment. I've run out of diapers for the kids, so we're using old rags at the moment."

With a touch of desperation, some Argentines are searching for meaning in their new poverty. Many take heart from a renewed sense of community, as neighbors and even strangers learn to depend on each other. Others draw parallels with their pioneering ancestors, mainly dirt-poor immigrants from southern Europe, who survived and sometimes prospered through frugal living and constant struggle.

For some, however, impotence in the face of governmental mismanagement is just too much to bear. "For sanity's sake, I prefer to to be disconnected from the news," says Sidney Page. "I don't want to read a newspaper or watch TV. It's better not to know what's coming next."


YGM
Wisdom To Be Gleaned Here @ Guilded Opinion
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.htmlNot to be overlooked....
YGM
Then And Now....The Parallels Between Bubble of /29 and Now......
http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Crash14.html-Excerpt-

The Great Crash

The U.S. stock market boomed in the 1920s. Prices reached levels, measured as a multiple of corporate dividends or corporate earnings, that made no sense in terms of traditional patterns and rules of thumb for valuation. A range of evidence suggests that at the market peak in September 1929 something like forty percent of stock market values were pure air: prices above fundamental values for no reason other than that a wide cross-section of investors thought that the stock market would go up because it had gone up.

By 1928 and 1929 the Federal Reserve was worried about the high level of the stock market. It feared that the "bubble" component of stock prices might burst suddenly. When it did burst, pieces of the financial system might be suddenly revealed to be insolvent, the network of financial intermediation might well be damaged, investment might fall, and recession might result. It seemed better to the Federal Reserve in 1928 and 1929 to try to "cool off" the market by making borrowing money for stock speculation difficult and costly by raising interest rates. They accepted the risk that the increase in interest rates might bring on the recession that they hoped could be avoided if the market could be "cooled off": all policy options seemed to have possible unfavorable consequences.

In later years some, Friedrich Hayek for one, were to claim that the Federal Reserve had created the stock market boom, the subsequent crash, and the Great Depression through "easy money"policies.

pp. 161-2: "[U]p to 1927 I should have expected that the subsequent depression would be very mild. But in that year an entirely unprecedented action was taken by the American monetary authorities [who] succeeded, by means of an easy-money policy, inaugurated as soon as the symptoms of an impending reaction were noticed, in prolonging the boom for two years beyond what would otherwise have been its natural end. And when the crisis finally occurred, deliberate attempts were made to prevent, by all conceivable means, the normal process of liquidation."
Black Blade
The Glitter of Gold - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

As an asset class, gold has been forgotten, discarded, dishoarded, and disowned. For more than two decades, gold has been ignored by most investors. While stocks were experiencing the bull market of the century, gold was in a severe bear market. From its peak of $850 an ounce on January 21, 1980, gold would fall throughout the following two decades, reaching a low of $255.675 an ounce on August 31, 1999. In September of 1999, an historic agreement was made in Washington where central banks agreed to limit the future sale of gold. Central bank gold sales and gold leasing had depressed the price of the precious metal since the beginning of 1995. It became part of the US strong dollar policy of the Clinton Administration. Since that time gold has gone through a series of brief rallies, but mostly declines until the spring of last year.


Black Blade: Puplava tackles Gold and the Stock Market tonight.
Black Blade
Oil Prices Rise on U.S.-Saudi Relations Fears
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,51130,00.html
Snippit:

LONDON � Oil prices over the world rose on Thursday ahead of a meeting between Saudi Arabia and the United States amid fears that their strategic relationship could be threatened by the deepening crisis in the Middle East. In a pivotal meeting with President George W. Bush on Thursday, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah was expected to voice Arab anger at Israeli incursions into Palestinian areas of the West Bank.

Black Blade: And so it goes, Oil is up over $27.00/bbl today.

Oh yes, I saw Louis Rukeyser's pathetic pleas for the investor to dive back into the stock markets. Senility and incontinence have caught up to the "mummy" as some call him. Meanwhile he still marches out the shills to tout stocks and scream that everything is OK while the investing public is all wrong � so much for Malkiel's(?) efficient market theory.
Black Blade
U.S. Can't Produce The Oil It Will Need
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vpfre262683940apr26.story?coll=ny%2Dviewpoints%2Dheadlines
Snippit:

IT'S TIME for a reality check on energy policy.

Politicians are fond of claiming that increased domestic oil production can restore energy "independence," but anyone who actually believes those claims is living in a world of self-delusion. U.S. energy independence hasn't been physically possible since the days when Elvis was still singing and, if we're talking about oil, it won't ever be possible again.


Black Blade: There is plenty of Oil in North America, the question should be is there enough "Cheap Oil". Yes we have the Athabasca Tar Sands, various untapped Oil fields, and Oil shales. The real question is how much is economically viable and at what price. The fuel of the future is Natural Gas and possibly Nuclear.
Black Blade
Blanchard Gold Bear Report and Other Investment Blunders

Remember that report from the Blanchard crowd? It was a report that detailed the demise of Gold as an investment and even stated that Gold prices would crash. I don't suppose that they will admend the report though.

Other blunders include the BoE Gold auctions where the losses are piling up fast in the face of rising Gold prices. Then there is the SJ Kaplan blunder. Bailing out of Gold shortly before the the strong rallies and putting the proceeds into NASDAQ shares just prior to the renewed NASDAQ crash does not appear to be a winning strategy in my opinion.

A lot of investment houses will be likely to work the phones over the weekend in order to pump and prime the market for Monday and attempt to push down the POG. The rally in Gold is likely to continue even with a few bumps along the way. The stock markets are crashing, the bond markets are pathetic, and there are very few viable investments left. Even the "real estate bubble"/"housing bubble" is bursting (down 8.3% in March).

- Black Blade
EagleOne
Black Blade
Matthew Simmons, in his Water and Energy presentation last February, listed the options he thought most likely to be the source for the future generation of electrical power.

*Snip* The world needs to continue to pursue the development of wind, solar, tidal and wave energy. All will have a role to play as our energy resources get further strained. None of these sources can realistically become genuine replacements for our core energy supplies. It is intellectually dishonest to pretend otherwise. None of these sources, from all we know, have the ability to scale to a size that could accommodate the total energy
needs of a region like New England, let alone become a substitute for our main sources of energy supply.

Electricity use can grow as rapidly as new power plants can be constructed but these plants need real energy input for kilowatts to be created. If few new dams can be built,
and coal gets restricted due to environmental concerns, and growth in natural gas supplies is suspect, the only real hope to grow electricity supply on any meaningful scale
is to return to nuclear power in a big way. Whether this can happen, given all the fears which nuclear engenders, will be a critical issue for the world to resolve. Absent a return to nuclear, coal is the only alternative. Without coal growth, there are real limits to the world's ability to grow electricity use. *unsnip*

I have heard somewhere that it was possible to convert coal into a slurry that could be then transported by current pipelines to refinerys and other users. Have you heard of this and where do you rate coal in out energy future?








EagleOne
Correction and link to Simmons
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/Correction: out = our
Black Blade
Don't laugh -- take a shine to gold
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF14D8063%2D290E%2D4B45%2D91D3%2D9376E4A60C22%7D&siteid=mktw
Commentary: It's not just for dreamers anymore

Snippit:

But you need look no farther away than Argentina and France to see why gold still has its place in our financial system. It remains the ultimate hedge against the unknown catastrophe that might lie somewhere down the road. In Argentina today, he with a stash of gold coins is king. Its worth stands at a time when the banks are closed indefinitely, the currency markets are shut down, and people are literally beginning to run out of any acceptable "means of exchange" that they can use to buy the necessities of life.

The French have memories of similar economic and financial chaos in their long history where the only reliable store of value was the gold bullion they kept in their bank in Geneva. What, some must be asking themselves, does the rise to political prominence of a fascist like Jean-Marie Le Pen portend for their future?

The political climate in the Middle East also favors gold, since investors there have traditionally been large hoarders of that metal, again as a hedge against the unknown. Some of them must be thinking about accumulating more as worries mount about the future staying power of the region's autocratic regimes, including the House of Saud, regimes that have allowed the privileged few to accumulate immense wealth while leaving behind in poverty the increasingly revolutionary masses.

As the list of countries and regions under stress grows, so will the interest in the ultimate financial hedge. Under such circumstances, $350 gold no longer seems just the impossible dream of gold bugs alone.


Black Blade: Unfortunately the author of this article has some bizarre perceptions of Gold Bugs. However, he is right about one thing � The price of Gold is more likely to go up than down. Also, the more positive reports on Gold in the "Mainstream Press" then so much better.
Black Blade
EagleOne � Power Generation

Matt Simmons has been on the ball for a long time when it comes to energy. Sometimes I wonder about a couple of his underlings though. The way that I see it:

Oil � the US currently imports over 70% of its daily Oil consumption.

Natural Gas � The US has vast reserves of NG, though the infrastructure to utilize this resource is lacking. It is a favorite of environmentalists because it is clean burning. If fuel cell technology becomes viable it will be the main source of hydrogen fuel.

Nuclear � This is perhaps the best choice for power generation. It is more costly though that is mainly due to regulatory matters than anything else. However, there are many who do not understand Nuclear energy and they oppose Nuclear power based on misunderstanding and the disaster at Chernobyl (a graphite core design) and hysteria over the Three Mile Island incident. Chernobyl was a disaster from the beginning and there are many such designs in the Third World (mostly Russia and eastern Europe). The containment structure at Three Mile Island performed as designed and no real release of radiation above background levels occurred. The best Nuclear Power generating facility may be the Pebble Reactor design (one pilot project operated in Germany for over 20 years and one is being considered for construction in SA). The problem for Nuclear is political more than anything else.

Coal � The US has nearly 350 years of supply at current rate of usage. There is the possibility of "clean coal" technology. Unfortunately the problem here is more political/environmental than anything else. The environmental regulations are piled on year over year and the restrictions along with "carbon credits" will likely reduce coal fired power generation for years to come. There is some coal slurry projects underway such as that done by Silverado Gold Mining (which is branching out from Gold of course), and Sasol of SA has been manufacturing coal oil fuels for years. The political reality is that coal will be under pressure until the next real energy crisis that hits the average American. When mom can't watch all my children, little Johnny can't view porn on the net, and dad's beer is warm � that's when there will be a cry for using coal to generate power.

Hydroelectric � simply put � there isn't anywhere left to build any new dams. Besides, the regulatory hurdles are insurmountable. In fact there is a growing movement to dismantle the dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers to save the salmon (though it's way too late for that � they're good as extinct).

Tidal wave generation � this is decades away from reality. Already environmentalists are opposed as it may interfere with migratory patterns for sea mammals and fish. It also could be a costly proposition even if it could pass the regulatory hurdles. The other questions are where to put these facilities. Care must be taken to avoid areas of intense weather and shipping lanes.

Solar � this is difficult to say. The parabolic mirror design as that used in So Cal in the Mojave Desert (Kramer Junction Company) is not very efficient and without government grants and subsidies they would be out of business due to the great cost. A new parabolic design shaped like a satellite dish has more promise. The mirrors focus a beam on a salt solution cylinder that heats up and in turn heats water to steam for power generation (the KJC design heats cylinders of oil which dissipates heat quickly). Here again environmentalists are opposed as it "offends the eyes" and takes away from the "aesthetic value" of the landscape. There is some promising new solar research at Bezerkley that is interesting though such as the "spray-on" plastic solar sheets. Such new technology may be years off and the cost effectiveness is uncertain. Of course the sun does not shine at night either.

Wind � Also known as "Quisenarts for Birds". PETA (not People Eating Tasty Animals � the other one) and several environmentalist groups are opposed to Wind generated power as raptors and other birds are for some reason attracted to windmills and when they approach the slice and dice begins. Windmills have been a concern for the California condor as well as slow flying eagles. Many even are opposed as the windmills are unsightly and again "offend the eyes". Of course the wind does not always blow and sometimes the winds blow too hard and the windmills are shutdown. The windmills at Altamont Pass in northern California have been responsible for numerous grass land fires and have threatened many homes and ranches. Most if not all windmill farms are subsidized by the government (actually the taxpayer).


There are no simple solutions to the growing "energy crisis". It is a given that we will see a severe energy crisis soon, possibly even this coming winter unless NG production kicks up a few notches. If this summer is hot as NOAA projects it will be ugly as more energy is consumed when air conditioners are turned on. After so many close calls around the nation and a small series of rolling blackouts in California over the last couple of years, virtually nothing has been done. Once the problem has passed it is no longer in the minds of the people (until the next crisis � then it is always the fault of the power company, big oil, etc. � go figure). This is a problem that will plague the nation for many years to come � especially if the economy recovers and the "New Economy" grows. One average sized server farm consumes as much energy as eight 40-story buildings. Before the Recession there was about one server farm completed each week.

It should also be noted that NIMBY is still strong. People are opposed to building more power generating facilities, transformer stations, building more transmission lines, building pipelines, etc. There are severe bottlenecks in the energy infrastructure across the nation. Just building power plants alone is meaningless unless there is a way to deliver the energy to where it is needed. The building of sufficient energy is highly unlikely as environmentalists are opposed to technology and the modern world (unless it affect them of course). Even the energy plan has been scuttled in the senate. So we can easily write off any economic recovery for the next several years.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Dollar most overvalued in 16 years - Big Mac index
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020426/markets_dollar_bigmac_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, April 26 (Reuters) - Despite being nibbled down to multi-month lows on Friday against major currencies, the dollar is considered at its most overvalued point in the 16-year history of The Economist's Big Mac Index, which measures the cost of the ubiquitous sandwich in 120 countries. "Overall, the dollar now looks more overvalued against the average of the other big currencies than at any time in the life of the Big Mac Index," the weekly wrote in its April 27 edition.

The Australian dollar is undervalued against the dollar by 35 percent, the most among the rich-world currencies. The Swiss franc and sterling, however are among the few overvalued currencies, at 53 percent and 15 percent, respectively, the newspaper wrote. Canada is undervalued against the dollar by 15 percent. The average cost of a Big Mac in the United States is $2.49. The cheapest Big Mac can be found in Argentina at $0.78 due largely to the devaluation of the peso from its decade-old one-to-one peg with the dollar in January. It costs diners $3.81 to feast on a Big Mac in Switzerland, currently the highest rate in the world.

Black Blade: Hmmm�
Black Blade
Once upon a time in Jenin
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=288592
What really happened when Israeli forces went into Jenin? Just as the world is giving up hope of learning the truth, Justin Huggler and Phil Reeves have unearthed compelling evidence of an atrocity
25 April 2002

Nurse shot through heart and man in wheelchair among Jenin dead

Snippit:

The thought was as unshakable as the stench wafting from the ruins. Was this really about counterterrorism? Was it revenge? Or was it an episode � the nastiest so far � in a long war by Ariel Sharon, the staunch opponent of the Oslo accords, to establish Israel's presence in the West Bank as permanent, and force the Palestinians into final submission?

The rubble in Jenin reeked, literally, of rotting human corpses, buried underneath. But it also gave off the whiff of wrongdoing, of an army and a government that had lost its bearings. "This is horrifying beyond belief," said the United Nations' Middle East envoy, Terje Roed-Larsen, as he gazed at the scene. He called it a "blot that will forever live on the history of the state of Israel" � a remark for which he was to be vilified by Israelis. Even the painstakingly careful United States envoy, William Burns, was unusually outspoken as he trudged across the ruins. "It's obvious that what happened in Jenin refugee camp has caused enormous suffering for thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians," he said.

The Israeli army insists that its devastating invasion of the refugee camp in Jenin earlier this month was intended to root out the infrastructure of the Palestinian militias, particularly the authors of an increasingly vicious series of suicide attacks on Israelis. It now says the dead were mostly fighters. And, as always � although its daily behaviour in the occupied territories contradicts this claim � it insists that it did everything possible to protect civilians.

But The Independent has unearthed a different story. We have found that, while the Israeli operation clearly dealt a devastating blow to the militant organisations � in the short term, at least � nearly half of the Palestinian dead who have been identified so far were civilians, including women, children and the elderly. They died amid a ruthless and brutal Israeli operation, in which many individual atrocities occurred, and which Israel is seeking to hide by launching a massive propaganda drive.


Black Blade: Quite a few stories of Israeli "homicide troops" invading Jenin and participating in cold blooded murder and mayhem. This is what has stirred up the Arab world and may result in the use of the Oil Weapon against the west and it will result in more terrorism. The Israeli response is very reminiscent of the attitude demonstrated by the Israeli "homicide military" after the Israeli terrorist sneak attack on the USS Liberty. Meanwhile Israeli homicide troops have retreated from some areas only to reenter others. The ME situation is no closer to being over than before.

Gold Standard
@ BB - energy options
Sir BB, I always enjoy your informative posts re energy, and your refreshingly scary "inside" information.

However, your 74429 post re NG has me somewhat confused.

You say in part:

"If fuel cell technology becomes viable it {Natural Gas} will be the main source of hydrogen fuel."

I always thought that fuel cells were a "stop-gap" solution pending safe and efficient hydrogen storage for mobile transport purposes.

Why would one not simply burn Natural Gas or CNG, rather than putting it through a fuel cell to produce hydrogen (which you then burn in any case), for a depleted BTU quotient.

Sir BB, I'm not criticising, but perhaps you could expand on this?

Cheers!
Black Blade
Five Killed in Attack on Israeli Settlement
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=586&ncid=721&e=1&u=/nm/20020427/wl_nm/mideast_attack_dc_4
Snippit:

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Five people were killed when one or two Palestinian gunmen attacked an Israeli settlement in the West Bank Saturday, the army said. "Five people have been killed" and six wounded, one seriously, an army spokeswoman said after the attack on Adora, a few km (miles) west of the divided city of Hebron. There was no immediate word on what happened to the attacker or attackers. The army said it was searching the area.


Black Blade: Tit for tat. There is no solution to the ME violence. Best to just let them alone to do what they do best � kill each other. We have more to lose by supporting one side over the other. All we should be concerned about is a secure supply of oil. Of course on the bright side if this situation escalates the POG should rocket higher.
Black Blade
Gold Standard � Fuel Cell

That's a good question. It has much to do with politics and political correctness. There a loss of energy by cracking the NG for the hydrogen. However, this is the environmental flavor of today. Some have flights of fancy and believe that the hydrogen will be separated from water. The problem is that the energy required is about as much the net energy gained from the hydrogen used in the fuel cell. To make hydrogen from water by using high-voltage electricity is expensive (about $2.40/kilo � more when factoring in the cost of building facilities to make hydrogen, pipelines, distribution, etc.). The cost of hydrogen from hydrocarbons such as natural gas with steam is cheap (about $0.65/kilo with similar costs for facilities, distribution, etc.).

Of course if is possible that some fuel cells will simply use NG or some other stored hydrocarbon as fuel and the hydrogen separation take place in the vehicle. However, most planned fuel cell vehicles are based on the premise that hydrogen (as liquid or compressed gas) will be stored in a special tank on board. Fuel cells on busses are one thing, on small compact vehicles are another. The safety concerns are well founded. From a practical standpoint, it may be easier to just use NG as a fuel since many homes have NG pipelines and major pipelines can be directed to distribution centers.

I have stated in the past that the Hindenberg was a fuel cell. I was joking of course, but you can imagine the danger of millions of four-wheeled Hindenbergs rolling down the nation's highways. I have a friend who experienced the danger of an exploding propane tank on his work vehicle a few years ago. He was not amused. Just imagine if it was a tank of compressed hydrogen gas.

Some major cities have large "stacked" fuel cells for critical services such as city buildings, hospitals, etc. There of course run of natural gas. There are those who propose using fuel cells in new construction of homes and businesses for generating onsite electricity. It could work I think. I am not sure of how it works other than the carbon is filtered out in a "scrubber" and collected or discarded once the hydrogen has been separated. At least in many areas there is enough infrastructure for home and business based fuel cells for on site power generation. Still widespread use of fuel cell technology is decades away if ever.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Gold Standard
Fuel Cells

Many thanks, Sir BB - but I still reckon that safe and efficient hydrogen gas storage for mobile applications is the "Holy Grail", where you have direct combustion of the stored hydrogen, thus obviating the need for a fuel cell.

This, of course, assumes an infrastructure of delivery - i.e. "gas" stations that actually provide "gas" rather than petrol. It also assumes efficiency of capacity, in that you will get several hundred km from a tank of "gas", and not have to refill too often.

Fuel cell technology, such as (I think) Ballard Power Systems in Canada (with HUGE financial backing from Ford, GM and DaimlerChrysler) is more or less considered a "stop-gap" to a full hydrogen-based fuel system, insofar as the delivery system is unchanged - one would still fill up with petrol, but the fuel cell cracks this into hydrogen, which is the combustible material.

I am in no way an expert or involved in this industry, but I would have thought that the money being spent on fuel cells for hydrogen combusting engines would be MUCH better spent on the delivery infrastructure.

I have owned LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) cars in the past, though not CNG. The filling procedure is not difficult, and hydrogen delivery should be no different.

The problems with hydrogen as I see are:-

1. Low thermal efficiency of the combustion process - i.e. less "bang for your buck". You either need to comparatively use a lot more of the combustible material (hydrogen) to garner the same performance, or suffer a significant performance reduction. This applies to either "full" hydrogen, or a fuel cell use.

2. You would have to have highly pressurised tanks and delivery systems, to provide sufficient hydrogen not to be an inconvenience (i.e. filling up every 100 km). This creates a safe storage problem.

3. Assuming that the delivery/performance problems of hydrogen are sorted, we then have the situation where there is available to the general public a non-polluting and (presumably) relatively cheap means of personal transportation. Wonderful stuff, but the traffic jams, road trauma rate (people will still be idiots despite technology) and lack of parking facilities will create its own urban chaos.

Then again, I've always wondered what would happen to a rescuer who attends to a collision between two electric vehicles..... Zzzzzzap?

BB, maybe the whole social infrastructure pertaining to personal transportation should be looked at - otherwise events may overtake us faster than we realise!

Boilermaker
EagleOne
About 20 years ago I worked for two years on coal water fuel (CWF)development for the B&W Company. That was a response to the 70's oil crisis that forced us to think about alternative fuels. We even built a CWF production facility to produce demonstration quantities, 20 tons per hour, of fuel for test burns. At that time CWF was envisioned as a replacement for oil and gas fired boilers and in fact CWF could be fired in burners that resemble oil burners. However, the major stumbling block was the fact that O&G fired boilers are designed to burn (per cubic foot of furnace volume) about three times the fuel quantity (BTU's) compared to coal. This ratio reflects the need for much longer furnace residence times needed to combust coal even when it is ground to powder size and the fact that bituminous coal contains significant amounts of ash (anywhere from 5 to 30%) that is entrained in the gas stream leaving the furnace.

The ash leaving the furnace must be cooled to a tempeature below its softening point so that it does not cause excessive slagging in the superheater and the velocities in the convection passes (superheaters, boiler surface and economizers made of tubes) need to be reduced so that the erosive effects of the ash will not wipe out the boiler's guts. All this means that boilers designed for oil and gas normally require a two or three to one derating on coal.
Of course there was also the need to add gas cleanup systems for any conversions.

Another factor that helped kill CWF was that the railroad lobby prevented CWF pipelines projects from employing eminent domain for right-of-way aquisition.

In the early 80's when oil was priced above $20/bbl and coal was $10-15/ton there was a strong incentive to make this work even with the problems noted above. However as soon as oil dropped below $20 most of these projects died and remain idle. My best guess is that these alternative fuel projects will start to reemerge when prices exceed $30/bbl and gas goes over $6/mcf. Some will become economic when prices reach $50/bbl and $10/mcf. However, these prices must be seen as stable and not boom and bust because of the tremendous amounts of long term capital needed for alternate fuel development.

It is my opinion that had we experienced gradually rising O&G prices from the 80's forward instead of $10/bbl oil $2/mcf gas, we would now be relatively independent of foreign imports. Sort of like letting the price of gold rise to provide the kind of financial and monetary disipline that a free market for gold would have imposed.


Many other alternative fuel ventures have had a similer history but they will reemerge when the market is right.
Hipplebeck
*----O
The symbol on the subject line above is a bomb with a lit fuse.
That is how the Middle East problem looks to me.
The US war on terrorism has now morphed into a war between Zionists and Islamists with the US caught in the middle. Instead of being the worlds only superpower, the US has become the worlds most important pawn.
If the US does not restrain Isreals expansion into the West Bank, then the Arab countries are going to wield a much bigger weapon than oil, they are going to take down the US financial system, and they have the ability to do it.
The Bush administration is attempting to play both sides, but as I've said many times when you do that, both sides end up hating you.
Apparently you cannot get elected for any office in this country if you have the Jewish lobby against you, so Congressmen are making sure that the Jews know whose side they are on.
The most important and explosive piece of real estate on the earth right now is the temple mount in Jerusalem. It is the linchpin in this great struggle. It symbolizes who's got the covenant.
The game of "stretch out the negotiations while taking over on the ground" has been exposed and is over I think.
I believe that there is not the political will in this country to restrain the Zionist dream, so it looks to me like we are headed for a war against all of Islam.
If it is not a shooting war, then they have the advantage.
It is a matter of dollar flow.
The media is already demonizing Saudi Arabia with the "money to suicide bombers" and other stories, so I think we will turn on them and label them part of the axis of evil eventually.
If you have not bought physical gold and put it in a safe place then you have not taken out insurance for your family.
Rock
Food for thought
50 billion dollars was lost in one day in the great 1929 stock market crash, that sounds pale in comparison to what the market has lost in 2002 yet the wall street pimps keep telling us there is no recession. AOL Timewarner recently lost much more than than 50 billion and thats just one company. Whats up with that?

Sir Rock
SteveH
CNBC
Something they do seems to raise hackles. Why? It isn't so much what they do but who they don't air. According to them the US is well on its way to recovery. They dwell on the common economic statistics, but ignore derivatives, bears of substance, and commodities. As such, they take the bull position and go overboard in creating a picture of an economy in recovery, without fullfilling their journalistic imperative of unbiased reporting.

They are unabashed cheerleaders to a stock market of days gone bye, hoping to 1)not contribute to a bear market by negative reporting and 2) create an image of a healthy economy even to the extent of avoiding significant danger signals or properly emphasizing the importance of same, when they do mention them.

mikal
@Hipplebeck
Interesting possible outcomes. Too bad that isn't the only region without security and mutual understanding. So many problems and issues remain unresolved on account of ignorance, greed, etc. Most foreign policy "analysis" is just beating a dead horse, delaying progress. The countries' politicians who sponsor war should return to the front lines like their ancestors, they would not be so quick to advocate war.
Arcticfox
Hedges
What I don't understand about this hedging is say a gold company is forward hedged at $310.00 US and gold goes to $350.00 US. Can't they still supply back the borrowed gold from their production and only loose out on the 40 dollar profit. For example, Newmont is letting their(Normandy's) hedgebook expire naturally. They would only run into trouble if the entity that they borrowed the gold from demanded all of the physical right away and the gold company had to go into the spot market and pay higher prices. Now if a bank is facing this predicament, can't they just buy call options to cover themselves. I quess I don't understand how hedgebooks can go "under water". What am I missing?
Rockgrabber
Mid-East and its dependency to our dollar BULL@%#$
Just caught on Fox News a segment with Daniel Yergin author of "The Prize," a book on oil. He is suppose to be an expert. His claim was the same as everyone elses, they cannot oil embargo us cause they depend too much on our dollars. Very shallow thinking I would think. What if they give us an embargo, and cut to half of what they are now pumping? WHat would that do to the price of oil? More importantly are these not "The Giants" whose tracks we have been walking. If they cut production by half, with an embargo to the west, their "real gold" goes to maybe thousands, crushes our paper markets in a panic, along with our very fragile banking system right now, they keep much oil in the ground, are you sure they would not like that? Europe is now very well proved that they have worked out the flaws in the Euro. What do they need our dollars for? They have already used them for what they wanted them for, Gold. Why not show your Ace now? Let China build up, with the emargo to the west. Let them send their pollution across the Pacific into America (I think they see it that way). Sell cheap oil now to China and let them become dependent on it. Embargo only the west. They are only cutting old worn out bridges, and building better new ones it looks.
Cometose
EPILOGUE / IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF GIANTS P67 /MK EDITOR
"What would I consider to be ANOTHER's most important contribution after spending all this time with it? I would have to say it is the revelation that the recent "good years" in the economy have been the result of a quid pro quo between central bankers and the oil states: that the latter would supply cheap oil in terms of dollars as long (as) they could receive gold in exchange. If true, it is this "understanding"' , as ANOTHER calls it, that paved the way for the longest period of sustained economic growth in the 20th century. It explains the long-term strength of the stock and bond markets not only in the United States, but thourghtout the industralized world. One can only imagine the consequences if the quid pro quo is removed from the current economic equation, though ANOTHER provides some frairly well developed scenarios if such a thing were to occur."

Another (thoughts!)
Resonse to ) A. Goose: Nothing is assured! Life is a risk and subject to many changes . I ask you, if the USA could not remove the Iraq leader when they were in full battle dress, then???? No, the US tanks are not a factor in this . The risk is to each person and how they hold their wealth. The concept of what wealth is , is going to change. Concept is but a thought and a thought of what value is, changes thru life. time will prove all things.

Hugo Chavez is reinstated after a brief interruption....


.... and the dollar begins exhibiting more damatic

weakness...

and the US Stock market dramtically moves below key support levels......

my, my ,my.........

what are we, here, on the threshold of?????
Old Yeller
Hello,Steve H

Good to see you.Hope all is well and you are enjoying the latest positive twists in our favorite market.

We have watched many icons and organizations fall due to
factors we were all well aware of months and sometimes years
before the "surprise" announcements in the mainstream media.CNBC will join the club of the totally discredited and despised,it's just a matter of time now.I agree completely with your views,their slick,one-sided presentations of business and economic "facts" borders on criminal.Just remember who owns them,the little GE shop will produce many horrors before this stock promotion to end all stock promotions is deconstucted.
darkhorse
(No Subject)
I'm just a bit excited about the recent outlook for/behavior of our favorite spot on the table of elements. Technicals, fundamentals, geo-politicals, economics, hedging, media exposure...the list goes on and on in favor of gold. I've noticed more opinions have been putting gold to at least $1000 before all is said and done. Anybody got any idea where silver might end up?
And�ril
darkhorse: "any idea where silver might end up?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=XAG&a=1&c=2Beating this dead horse, we do not expect him to run differently in time. This trend you see will continue as silver is sold for gold. Silver will not "end up" as you ask. It will end down.
Cavan Man
Anduril
Why?
Christian
GDP
Private spending, being more efficient than state spending, does little to boost GDP figures. An entity can contract out services needed to reduce the cost and in the process reduces the GDP figure. On the other hand an entity can waste money in fraud, inefficiency or bribery- all these sums are counted as part of GDP. Selling a stock be it at a profit or loss is part of GDP. People use their homes as income. 1/4 of all homeowners refinance their homes every 5 or less years, 1/2 every 7 years or less, 1/5 every 10 years or less and the money taken out to spend is part of GDP. More people will file for bankruptcy than graduate from college and all is counted as GDP. Debt is not part of GDP. Private debt is expanding at a rate of 10% a year. Public debt is expanding at a rate of 20% a year. The government reports a 5.8% GDP increase.You can not borrow yourself out of debt. When it is all said and done as long as investors believe in paper confetti their wealth will be absorbed by physical metal buyers. The coming political and economic brekdown will force the government to revert metal backed money to reliquify.
Boilermaker
Argentina falls further into the "abyss"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020426/argentina_6.htmlPOCKETS EMPTY

"I have some cash but not enough to make it through the weekend," said Graciela, a marketing manager and mother of two. "I can't withdraw my salary; stores won't accept my bank cards, so now I have to choose what I will stop buying."

Argentines had already been cutting back on all but necessary goods since January's devaluation sent the local peso currency plummeting more than 70 percent against the dollar, to which it had been pegged at par for more than a decade.

With inflation soaring, supermarkets sold 15 percent fewer goods last month than in March 2001.

Some academics urged the International Monetary Fund to act to revive the comatose banking system now that an estimated half of Argentina's 36 million people cannot meet their basic food needs or cover their cost of living.

One apparently good piece of news was Duhalde's pact with powerful provincial governors on Wednesday to heed calls from foreign lenders to rein in high public spending -- which forced Argentina to default on $140 billion in public debt this year.

The IMF, which has held back aid awaiting concrete action on long-promised spending cuts, has yet to react; but U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, an acerbic critic of Argentina's spending habits, hailed the provincial pact and urged the government to "move forward in close contact" with the fund.

Still, some economists ridiculed the deal and looked askance at possible government plans to peg the exchange rate after four months of a free flotation which was demanded by the IMF but has sparked inflation and banking chaos.

Other economists questioned the effectiveness of a new law meant to stem the exit of bank deposits. Instead of swapping deposits for bonds, it would require the Supreme Court to rule on all appeals against the deposit freeze.

"Thursday our executive board studied the new law and our unanimous opinion is the law is unconstitutional," said Angel Bruno of the Argentine lawyers' association.

However, the Supreme Court on Friday suspended all bids to free deposits from the system, overruling decisions by some lower court judges across the country who had opposed the law and went to some banks demanding cash be handed over.

Banco Provincia, Argentina's second largest bank, earlier closed its head office an hour after opening when court clerks showed up with a lawsuit demanding the release of deposits.

A bank manager in the poor northern province of Formosa told pensioners and unemployed people eligible for $50 in dole money that he could only offer them provincial bonds since no cash had been sent from Buenos Aires.

"We are going hungry. We are not trying to loot the bank; we just want our own money back," said a woman in the line outside his branch of the Formosa provincial bank before protesters pelted the building with stones.

Boilermaker comment;
Buenos Aires is a beautiful city with a vibrant nightlife (at least when I was young enough to enjoy it). The country is like Italy, no stability but lots of action. I sincerely pray that the Argentinians will find a true leader who understands what has happened and why it happened and will proscribe remedies that will return this wonderful country and its people to prosperity.

We Americans will need a similar leader in the not too distant future.
mikal
@Anduril
It is good to see you posting often this week. Your work reveals a profound perspective similar to FOA, Sir Douglas. Thank you very much for your comment re: silver. Please let me know if I am underestimating the above-ground silver supply, by my holding significant physical Ag. I wish to say that I greatly appreciate all your posts and look forward very much to your opinions and fellowship.
And�ril
Cavan Man: "Why?"
Men take wives. Why?
Men specialize in labor. Why?
Men gather gold. Why?

Through the long course of human events, we see what there is to see. No thing more, no thing less. This trend is real and it has yet far to go at slopes first steeper then flatter.

Something there is among economic peoples that rises to the position of pinnacle wealth. If not the #79 atom, then something else in its place. Does it matter to this gold discussion what the # or compound is if men give it the name "gold" just the same? For us, #79 it is that carries this name, and we march to that music of our forebears.

This pinnacle thing (gold by any other name or number) by definition draws forth a predictable response relative to all things. As primitive men rise up to join the cities, they leave their pagan tools behind. No longer do they drag their knuckles under the weight of stone tablets, bear skins and copper wheels. These are sold at falling value for lines of credit, cellular phones, Armani suits, BMWs in the fast lane and a personal vault of gold.

How does this happen? The First World grows, and the Third World leaves behind the deserts and forests faster than gold is mined to fill their modern lifestyle.

The banking structures of the past century have done much to mask the economic separation of gold and silver. This has been well covered by others and need not be repeated now. As these old influential effects continue to fall away under the learning curve of each generation, the slope will approach vertical as the gold value is reasserted even as old silver hoards join with the steady stream of aluminum cans sold to the recycler for a buck or two. The formative stages of this movement is now under way.
Hydro
Boilermaker: correction (I hope):
Regarding Boilermaker's comment:
"Buenos Aires is a beautiful city with a vibrant nightlife (at least when I was young enough to enjoy it). The country is like Italy, no stability but lots of action. I sincerely pray that the Argentinians will find a true leader who understands what has happened and why it happened and will proscribe remedies that will return this wonderful country and its people to prosperity.
We Americans will need a similar leader in the not too distant future."

I hope you meant to say "prescribe" (to lay down a course of action) instead of "proscribe" (to prohibit). We already have too many leaders in the US who proscribe remedies to return our country to freedom and prosperity; they are called "Democrats", and many others are called "Republicans".
mikal
@Anduril
Re: Last post to Cavan Man. Thanks! I find that I am balancing more and more of my physical precious metals to the yellow, over the last year because of posts like yours. (Also, I have found AU much easier and safer to store). Although I disagree that Ag will devalue, your explanations are highly useful, revealing much insight into the behavior of large investors and a likely complete severance of silver's monetary and reserve status. I can only hope that those who believe in honest money will at least have some gold.
Arcticfox
Bonner...
THE REVENGE OF GOLD
by Bill Bonner

"In due course the Japanese people will own over 70% of
the world's gold! Wrap your mind around the implications
of that!"

Harry Schultz


The price of gold hit $305 yesterday. "BUY GOLDS!!" says
the headline of a James Dines ad in Barron's.

Dines, whose headline - it seems like it was only a few
months ago - was "Buy Internets," now believes that it
is gold stocks that are in "RAGING UPTRENDS!"

"If you honestly want to make money, it is obvious that
you should be interested in uptrending stocks," says
Dines. Internets, as all the world has noticed, are no
longer in uptrends. Even "downtrend" seems too gentle to
describe the white-knuckled descent of the companies
Dines used to recommend. Perhaps "death spiral" would be
more appropriate. Many of them went down so far, so
fast, they will never get up again. But the trends have
changed.

One of James Dines' 61 "Dinesisms," explains the ad, is
that "a trend in motion will continue in motion until it
actually ends." We will not dispute this. In fact, the
crystal elegance of this dictum makes us wonder about
the 60 other "Dinesisms." In fact, we have a suggestion
for a 62nd one: "The price of gold will go up...unless it
goes down. Or nowhere."

Dines thinks he knows what direction gold is going in.
"It's an actual fact that golds and silvers are in
uptrends," continues the author of three-score and one
Dinesisms, "and have been outperforming the rest of the
stock market. Serious money is made by getting into bull
markets early, before the crowd 'gets it', and precious
metals have been sneaking quietly higher, unnoticed by
the crowd..."

We've been urging you to buy some gold, too, dear
reader. Not because we know something...but because we
don't.

There are so many things we don't know, we hardly know
where to begin to describe them. We do not know how long
the world will continue to accept dollars in exchange
for goods and services, for example. Nor do we know how
long American consumers can continue to spend money that
they don't have. Nor do we know when real estate markets
might turn downwards, ending the illusion of additional
wealth caused by rising house prices. But in a world
with so many unanswered questions, gold seems the
perfect thing to own.

There was a time when we thought we could predict what
would happen in the markets. But today, even the dim
recollection of those days brings a sigh of regret. How
could we have been so na�ve, back in the 1970s, we ask
ourselves? How could we have been so foolish and so
cocksure back in the 1980s, we wonder? Ah...but then, we
had the confidence of youth...the knowledge of the
innocent...and, most importantly, we had hair.

But by the 1990s, we were losing our mane and gaining
our doubts. Age and modesty were beginning to catch up
to us. Nature, in her majesty, had already found many
ways to separate us from our dignity and our money; we
had to conserve what little we had left.

When forecasters told us - back in the '70s - that gold
would rise to $5,000 an ounce, we believed them. For
what would stop it? Government was inflating the
currency. Government always inflated currency - if it
could. There was no example from history of a currency
that had not been inflated away to a bare trace of its
original value. Why would the dollar be any different?

The logic of that argument was persuasive then, and
still is. But the timing proved difficult to forecast.

In a better world, predicting the course of future
events would be much easier. If man were merely the homo
economicus that economists think he is, he could be
expected to do the rational thing at the rational time.

Back in 1971, for example, the rational thing would have
been to sell dollars and buy gold. Gold had an
established track record dating back thousands of years.
It got excited when compared to paper currencies -
jumping up and down with the fashions of the time. But,
in terms of what it would buy, gold seemed
extraordinarily calm.

Through many generations of trial, and mostly error,
humans had discovered that paper currencies eventually
drifted away to nothing - unless they were anchored to
gold or some other solid rock of value. Thus did the
Western money system of the 19th century function so well
- the major nations, Britain, France and America, had
currencies tightly moored to gold. At the end of the
century, the franc, the pound and the dollar were nearly
in the same place as they had been at its beginning.

But the 20th century brought changes. "The classical gold
standard died like a soldier in WWI," writes James
Grant.

Governments yield to emergency like a dieter to devil's
food. In war, for example, restraining influences -
gold, habeus corpus, and common decency - give way to
mass hysteria. We have already described how the
emergency of WWI effectively bankrupted all the major
belligerents - save one, the U.S.

Britain, France, Germany, Russia - all were on the brink
of destitution in 1919. They had lost millions of young
men, and billions of dollars, but they had not
completely lost their senses. A movement to re-establish
the gold standard began almost as soon as the fighting
stopped. But it wasn't until early 1924 that Germany
ended its hyper-inflation by tying the mark to gold.
Then, on the 28th of April 1925, Winston Churchill - then
chancellor of the exchequer - announced that the pound
would be once-again convertible into gold, as it had
been before the war - and at the same rate!

"Why did he do something so stupid?" John Maynard Keynes
asked. Answering his own question, Keynes said he
believed Churchill was led to his biggest mistake
(perhaps even worse than his Dardanelles campaign in
WWI) by his own advisors - notably, Norman Montagu,
England's chief central banker at the time.

The rate was too high. During the war years, Britain had
expanded its money supply and run up billions in debt -
most of it to the U.S. The general price level in
Britain had doubled between 1914 and 1918. Unemployment
increased in the post-war years. And exports, even by
1924, were still down 25% from their levels of 1913.

A reasonable man might have concluded that the pound -
loosed from gold - would likely float lower. It did. But
then, a bull market in the pound in the early '20s
produced a "sensational" run up in sterling. By 1924,
the pound was once again trading at pre-war levels.

Taking the bait, Churchill fixed it by law. The result
was disastrous. "The revenge of gold," declared the
French newspaper, Le Temps.

Churchill realized his error almost immediately.

"Something terrible is beginning to happen to the
economy," he said, adding "If that happens I hope Norman
Montagu will be hung."

"It was the biggest mistake of my life," Churchill later
said to his doctor.

General Foch, returning from a visit to London in June
1925, described the situation:

"England's government coffers are full. But the economic
situation is poor...and its industry is operating at
half-speed. From every side, you hear complaints that
British producers can't possibly compete with foreign
suppliers..."

Churchill's mistake had far-reaching consequences. As
England grew weaker, Germany grew stronger. Another
French commentator: "We thought Germany had been
sidelined for a long time, if not forever. But barely 7
years after the war, she has become an even more
dangerous rival."

Churchill's mistake did nothing to enhance the glory of
gold. Many believed it was the gold standard itself that
was at fault...a few even blamed it for the '29
crash...or for the inability of the government to
correct the Great Depression that followed.

Alas, the gold standard had entered a bear market...

More to come...

Your editor, always trying to connect the dots...but no
longer so sure what picture it will give him...

Bill Bonner

CoBra(too)
I've been on a Tight Schedule - and sorry not to respond ...
Eexcept being more happy than anybody thinks about POG's advance -
belatedly to JON's Question a couple of days back - who may have been taken aback by a (negative- after build up reserves to do away with the last hedges) quarterly result of DRD - asking me the next day's closing price ... - huh, I know, what's that in real money ... - still made my day ...


You, know, my friend you remind me of a young Swiss Banker ... admittedly, years back who asked Senator Bentse-(o?)n of Texas and (at least Ron Paul's) equivalent - who asked the same question to the Japanese , what counter exports they would be willing to take on from the US ... after 20 y's we may know - none, as we all exported our production to the productive SE Asian Nations - the US, The EU and Japan ...

While the Swiss Banker may have meant Swiss FR, you may have meant US$ vs AU - ... would you now please tell me JON - the POG vs $ vs Yen and vs � ?

After all consideration and the avoidance of any disturbance to your life style you - JP6 - should probably
be invested by in physical assets like PM's - payed by a hyper-mortgaged home - and infested with other recurring debts - now about 140% of your disposable income.

Wow, sounds like you're privately no better off than the Gov. of Japan, sporting the same 140% debt to total GNP.

- After playing devil's advocate today, anyway - just look again at the compos(t)ition of the latest qu. GNP # of 5.8% -annualized growth. Again it's the sole detriment of debt, and the remaining bubbles - gov. debt, priv. debt, corp.debt and GSE's real estate - or better the unreal pricing for the state of the consumer Debt... or worse - for the boomer finding his retirement nest egg - worth "less" than he can afford to "care less"!

The Boomer only was told to buy and hold - stocks - and buy again on dips - while the US of A changed from a productive country to Financial and other Services and Wall Street to M&A and Main Street to applaud what their typical old producing co. was doing in your neighbourhood.

Take GE - It's now everybody's neighborhood on CNBC - and how many touting Bob's, Joe's and Maria's do you need to make up for the fake 'feel good' sake ... while you know that GE has left your very own neighborhood obsolete with ... golden? handshakes of redundancy ... as we exported your productivity to the real needy in the second and third world.

... Oh, well, all of you know the story better than I - so I will retire and just say - the POG has proved to be a counter-measure to weaker hegemon paper reserve currency - and so have some mine(o)rs -

So, at the final analysis - you'll probably find your only pot of gold at the "REAL" end of the Rainbow - and then you've got to hold physical - right with you ... and now we know that any caballero or gaucho will tell you so!

So better have some security and barter close to thee! cb2 -


Mr. Bill
Silver Scam
http://endgame.caYou might want to check out that site. Has another view on why silver might not be the right bet.
CoBra(too)
Mr. Bill -
Who ever you may be...

Please spare us here with your - thankfully, not working links - to Mr. Endgame's unending stories of why the guy feel's nothing is at it seems ... cb2



Arcticfox
More Bonner....
THE REVENGE OF GOLD, PART II
By Bill Bonner
"It will be desirable to select as the standard of value
that which appears likely to continue to exchange for
many other commodities in nearly unchanged value."

William Stanley Jevons


Recall the 1970s.

Back then, the future of the financial world seemed to
depend on the money supply...as it seems to hinge on the
consumer today. People watched money supply figures the
way they watch consumer confidence tallies today.

As the money supply rose, it seemed inevitable that
commodity prices...particularly gold...would follow. A
man with a little imagination didn't even have to open
the newspaper. Because he knew that government
controlled the money supply and that no government could
resist increasing it. Ergo, the dollar would fall like a
stone in a well...and the price of gold would soon hit
$5,000.

What made the '70s were the years preceding - the 1960s.
A war on terrorism, '60s-style...in Vietnam...had
escalated into a full scale war - in fact, if not in
law. Congress had never bothered to declare war...and
never bothered to raise the funds to pay for it. With
the additional burden of the Great Society programs at
home, it began to look as if the federal government was
living beyond its means. Foreign dollar holders began to
wonder.

The gold standard of the 19th century had "died like a
soldier" in WWI. It spent some time convalescing,
disastrously in England's case, in the interwar years,
only to get drafted and shot again in WWII. But the
habit of monetary rectitude was so firmly established
that it was hard to break. The U.S. government had
organized a Gold Pool, by which major central bankers
conspired to keep the price of gold below $35.20 an
ounce. Managed by the Bank of England, member nations
supplied gold - which was sold at critical moments to
keep the price down.

But General de Gaulle noticed the weakness in America's
financial position in the mid-60s. In 1968, France
pulled out of the Gold Pool arrangement and demanded
gold in exchange for its dollars. Soon after, other
nations began to wonder too. How could America continue
to print so many dollars and still maintain the dollar's
value at $35 per ounce of gold?

It couldn't, of course. Three years after de Gaulle
broke ranks with the London price fixers, Richard Nixon
was obliged to "close the gold window" at the Fed.
Henceforth, a dollar was just a dollar - a piece of
paper with no value beyond what the world is willing to
give to it.

Thus began a remarkable experiment. No nation had ever
made a sustained success out of paper money. Instead,
each episode reads like a cautionary tale. The dates,
names, places and circumstances change - from Imperial
Rome to Revolutionary France - but the moral of the
story remains the same: paper money is not merely a
mistake, but a kind of sin; like bestiality, it is
unnatural...like larceny, it is repugnant...like sloth,
it is ruinous.

Nothing in the experience of the '70s suggested that
this time would be any different. The price of gold rose
from $35 an ounce in 1971 to over $800 in 1979. Silver
ran up from under $5 to nearly $40. Oil went from under
$15 a barrel to over $30. Who could doubt that the
process would continue? With no golden anchor to moor
it, the dollar would soon float out to sea and disappear
over the horizon.

But tides go both ways. Just about the time people
became convinced that gold would continue to float
higher, the water level dropped. The decade which had
been the best time ever to buy gold was replaced by two
decades in which gold was nearly the worst investment a
man could make. From more than $800 an ounce in 1979
dollars, the price fell to less than $275 an ounce in
1999 dollars.

But, there is a lot of ruin in a nation, dear reader -
more than can be drawn out in a single decade. Besides,
markets do not destroy people right away, they toy with
them first...flattering them cravenly before knocking
them down.

Twenty-three years after gold reached its peak, people
no longer watch the money supply figures. Who cares
about them? No matter how many dollars or yen or euro
central bankers create, people seem to want more of
them. Nor do they seem to care that nothing but bad
intentions stand behind the paper.

In attempt to gin up economic growth, Japan is
increasing its money supply at the fastest pace in 30
years. In January, the Bank of Japan's monetary base was
clocked at a 35.7% annual rate of increase. Just a year
earlier, it was falling. "I genuinely fear
hyperinflation in Japan once banks slow down the write-
off of bad debt," said an analyst to Grant's Interest
Rate Observer.

Meanwhile, in Europe, de Gaulle's successors seem to
want to get back in the Gold Pool. The European Central
Bank recently announced that it would sell gold at
auction.

It has been the fashion of the last few years for
central banks to sell gold and buy yield-producing
dollar-based assets. Central banks still have many tons
of gold - the legacy of the gold reserve years. Central
bank sales have kept the price low, and the threat of
greater sales discouraged buyers.

Charles de Gaulle has been dead for many years. Barring
some incredible breakthrough, he will stay that way. But
while the general may have been sui generis, Gaullism
(the annoying trait that makes a man break ranks in
order to secure an advantage) is probably widespread. In
a gold bear market, central bankers may readily stick
together, taking turns offering their gold for sale in
order to keep the price down. But when the tide
turns...and the price of gold rises...Gaullism is sure
to rise too.

More tomorrow...including why the banks will not sell
their gold.

Bill Bonner

Arcticfox
Bonner....Part III
REVENGE OF GOLD, PART III
by Bill Bonner
"We are seeing a gradual but marked change in investor
sentiment toward gold and a simultaneous return of gold
to its 2000-year old status as a reserve asset..."

Ian Cockerill


We begin with a confession. In our first and only
encounter with the voting booth, we pulled the lever for
Jimmy Carter back in the '70s. We learned our lesson and
promised never to do it again.

We have been recalling the '70s in the last few letters.
The era was unlike today, of course. Those were the days
when graphs of Jimmy Carter's popularity...consumer
confidence...and the dollar...all headed in the same
direction - down - and few people could imagine that
they would ever turn up. Gold, meanwhile, only seemed to
go in the opposite direction - up - and few people
(certainly not your editor) could imagine that it would
not continue. So different were the '70s from today that
we can scarcely imagine how they were, even though we
can recall the major events.

What is hard to remember is how we felt at the time.
Today, we are full of pride, confidence and irrational
exuberance. Then, the national mood was one of sullen
despair, negativity and irrational desperation.

Remember waiting in line four hours to buy gasoline?
Remember consumer prices rising at 13% per year? By the
end of the decade, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds
had soared to over 10%; and who wanted them? Everyone
knew they were nothing more than "certificates of
guarantee confiscation." Then, barely months after the
end of the decade, Business Week famously announced - on
its cover - that equities were not just down, but out
forever. But, even at 8 times earnings, who wanted
stocks at the end of the '70s?

And yet, we were human then too. Coming to the central
question of today's letter: might we feel tomorrow the
way we once felt yesterday?

That is the weakness of the human condition, dear
reader. We have strong powers of logic, but weak powers
of imagination. Give us a trend and we will put
"reasons" in it faster than maggots can find a dead
chicken. Then, the "reasons" will help us look ahead to
what happens next - extending the life of the trend into
the future as if nothing could stop it. But something
always does. Just as maggots soon eat their way through
dead flesh, so does a trend sooner or later exhaust
itself...and have to move on.

Fighting a war against terror in Vietnam was expensive.
But it wasn't just the money that brought American low
in the '70s. It was also one little detail - the
terrorists won!

"I remember those years," said a French army officer at
dinner the other night. "After WWII and then the war in
Algeria, the French military was totally discredited. In
the '60s, it was almost an embarrassment to wear a
uniform. People in Paris practically spat on us. It was
not so different in America after Vietnam. The army lost
its prestige."

But at the beginning of the '80s, Carter gave way to
Reagan, stocks headed up, interest rates headed down and
a major change of sentiment began. In a series of little
wars and big defense budgets, the Reagan administration
rebuilt the military. Meanwhile, stocks climbed over a
wall of worry in the early '80s and eased into a warm
tub of rising cash in the '90s. Gradually, too, the
tough anti-inflation Fed of Paul Volcker eased into the
accommodating bath of Alan Greenspan. From then on,
every crisis that came along was salved with the same
healing ointment - more cash and easier credit.

Then, on September 11th, the world changed remarkably.

But this September 11th was not the one you are thinking
of. It was September 11, 1989 - the day the Berlin Wall
came down. Americans peeked around them and realized
they no longer had any competition. The U.S. was on top
of the world - in a class of its own, the world's only
superpower. A new glow of confidence began to light up
the American countenance. Stocks soon went from making a
reasonable rise from depressed levels to an unreasonable
rise from reasonable levels. Gold fell as central banks
unloaded their reliquary assets in favor of yield-
producing dollar assets.

And why not? Could anyone doubt the staying power of the
dollar?

Then, the Nasdaq crashed...and another September 11th
came along - in 2001. People are beginning to wonder -
as Charles de Gaulle did in the 1960's - how much is a
dollar really worth?

"During March 2001," writes Ian Cockerill, CEO of
Goldfields, "there was a turning point in the price of
gold. What you see from here on out is a gold price
coincidently testing new highs and concomitantly
creating higher lows. We are seeing a new trading
channel, with a general upwards trend, developing.

"In my opinion, this is a systemic response to the
increasing risk profile of the world. Over this period
we have seen an upsurge in interest in gold from retail
investors, especially in Japan and Germany, as well as
institutional investors worldwide. Are investors
returning to gold because they are nervous?"

Demand for gold outstrips new mine supply, Cockerill
points out, by more than 1,000 tons per year. And at
current production rates and today's prices, mines have
only enough reserves for about 10 years.

Gold producers used to hedge, by selling their gold
before they mined it. But the rising price of gold makes
hedging no longer sensible. The forward price, Cockerill
notes, is "but a hop skip and a jump from the current
spot price."

In a falling market, hedging adds supply - and forces
the price lower. But in a rising market, hedging has the
opposite effect. Producers who hedged their production
have to buy on the open market in order to cover their
positions.

The big threat to the price of gold, though, is selling
by central bankers. In recent years, central banks have
operated an informal Gold Pool - taking turns selling
gold. Whether intentional or not, the effect has been to
depress gold's price. And while the terms of the
Washington Agreement limit the amount of gold that
central bankers are allowed to sell, the threat of
future sales continues to menace the gold market.

But a strange thing happens when the trend turns and
gold begins a sustained bull market. Extrapolating from
the last 20 years, we can barely imagine it. But,
recalling the way we felt in the '70s, with our
basements full of freeze-dried emergency rations...our
portfolios full of gold stocks...and our heads full of
hair...we can almost imagine it.

No one wants to sell a rising asset. And while central
bankers may have a common interest in keeping the price
of gold low (coincidentally keeping the price of their
paper high), Gaullism has not completely disappeared
from the gene pool.

Recently, gold has been outperforming all other
currencies and every other major asset category. If the
newborn trend continues, even central bankers will grow
to like gold. Who knows, instead of selling it, they may
become buyers.

Yours truly,

Bill Bonner,
often accused of being a gold bug, but never
convicted...

Mr. Bill
@mikal - silver scam
http://www.endgame.ca/This link should work. Thanks for the heads up cb2.
Cavan Man
Hello CB2
Is that "hegemon" or, POKEMAN? Is there a difference?

Excellent post!(as usual)
CoBra(too)
Arctic Fox - Bonner Part IV.
Gold's Revenge - "so what do I know - and I'm quite good at knowing nothing - officially, that is.

Still I've been a little wee doubtful at the rich valuations we've had - oh, still having on tech and almost all other stocks! But, what do I know?

Is the US $ priced to perfection - against what - who- ever has mentioned the Big Mac Index is at least on a value, sorry purchasing power approach - again I caught myself thinking in archeological terms.

... Big Mac's may be - by some quirk of nature be partially embedded in (plastic) and buried for another era to excavate - and now Moscow and Bejing is hung with the original - Junk Food - craze of your neighborhood.

- Oh, well, forgot my thought anyway - ... just figure some future archeologist finds a silver a/o Gold Eagle on your property in San Fran and says to his fellow rescue team after a 7.8 Richter scale tremor - those ancient guys knew how to anchor their buildings ....

- True and their family savings - as well - insurance too ... cb2
darkhorse
@Mr. Bill
I read a few articles off your Mr. Endgame's site...sounds to me like he makes that stuff up as he goes. Some people shouldn't be allowed to have a PC.
Old Yeller
FT jumps on the dollar dogpile
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3D5FJDI0D&live=true
This isn't your usual gloss-over job either.Seems pretty clear now the agenda has been shifted,Plaza Accord II is really getting a solid media send off.

Hope they've lined up some buyers,or it could get real crowded at the exits.
darkhorse
(No Subject)
I'm watching my local Fox newscast, and they're running a story on how people are losing sleep and worried about their investments, the SM, the economy and all the lay-offs. One of their lead-in lines was "Maybe you should just quit worrying."
CoBra(too)
@ CM - Hegemon?
... Funny you've asked - Listened to a great interview with
Prof. Herman Bahr, a real european philosopher, even a former german socialist politician - who used hegemon in a monetary, economic and political sense.

The outcome was - the US is the only global superpower - left - in a sense of superiority of technological - let's call it defense (hopefully)- for some time not to be challenged. The "hegemon" of the us $ reserve currency - as the payback for protecting the Nato and other allies from the cold war - have lent their 'acquiescence' to the unequal deal.

As now it becomes more clear that the US $ Hegemon, in conjunction with being rewarded with the only global Super Power Status - and real enemies are not readily found - WAT may become the equivalent of - worst case scenario, to blindfold the formerly free US citizens - via Patriot and other idiot Acts - to forfeit the quest to liberate, free and aid the the rest of the world to become a global free trading democracy!

- Uh, OH; so only under the auspices of a global and hegemonial in-equilibrity of pricing any product or service to a degree of lasting stability ... in the Idea of global sharing of labor - or better wealth and real productivity ... is inadequately dealt with today's hegemon of the US - Reserve Currency - a Fiat Monster taking on the "Aes Aliena" of the late Roman Empire!

G'nite cb2







Mr. Bill
@darkhorse
Different stokes, I guess. Sounds like you have seen the way.
mikal
@Old Yellar
http://www.ft.comRe: Your FT (Financial Times ) link below- Their "Editorial Comment" deserves another look. Regarding the US dollar: snippit....."Monetary authorities outside the US should stand ready to ease policy further to offset falling external demand. And though the Federal Reserve would have to monitor inflation closely, it should not rush to tighten policy as the US economic recovery remains fragile.
A rapidly falling dollar represents perhaps the most significant threat to a smooth global recovery. The greenback's value, in turn, relies upon the willingness of others to continue to fund the yawning US trade gap. Neither can be counted on." End....click Old Yellar's link for more
darkhorse
Mr. Bill
Just to keep the record straight...I've definately got clearer vision than your Mr. Endgame.
Golden Bear
@darkhorse
darkhorse - what is it about these writings that you find so far fetched,

just curious...

One point Endgame made got me thinking...

the central banks signed the WA without the USA, and the USA didn't respond or protest as far as I know (correct me if I am mistaken).

Doesn't it seem odd? Just playing with the pieces of this vast jigsaw puzzle...

Cheers.

Black Blade
The dollar's precarious perch
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3D5FJDI0D&live=true
Snippit:

So long predicted yet so elusive, the prospect of a significant fall in the US dollar is exciting currency markets again. Since it began to rise in 1995 the greenback has looked vulnerable to speculative attack but year after year it has proved immune.

Triggers for a dollar decline - the enduring Japanese trade surplus, the launch of the euro, the US recession - have come and gone. None has impeded its steady rise against the currencies of the US's trading partners.

That should not come as a great surprise: forecasting short-term currency movements has always been a mug's game. That the dollar has defied gravity for so long does not invalidate the view that it is overvalued. It simply means we cannot predict when it will fall. But fall it almost certainly will, for the US has spent more than it has earned for the past six years.

Sorry performance

US equity returns this year have performed worse than those in other industrial countries' markets; this sorry performance has not been mitigated by a rising dollar; fears regarding the fragility of US corporate profits in spite of high productivity growth have been realised; and US equities remain highly valued against all usual benchmarks.

If sufficient capital flows are not forthcoming, any dollar decline will be far from limited or orderly. Portfolio investment flows pushed the dollar ever higher. These can reverse just as quickly. If they did, dollar investments would perform considerably worse than equivalent assets elsewhere, redoubling any flight from the greenback.

Moreover, there is no doubt that the dollar would have to decline significantly to bring the US current account back close to balance. With exports representing just about 10 per cent of GDP, the US would need to increase their volume by 40 per cent to eliminate its 4 percentage point current account gap. But as it is by far the largest economy in the world, such a change would require a significant drop in US export prices - so the real increase in exports required would have to be larger and hence the dollar fall bigger. The same logic would apply, were the adjustment to take place via reduced imports.


Black Blade: The USD is falling and if it should fall rapidly as it should, then we could see the POG rocket higher. The conditions are ripe for a collapse in the USD. The strong dollar policy has hurt many US businesses and imports are so much cheaper and therefore displace similar domestic goods. The strong US dollar also hurts domestic businesses as the can not compete in foreign markets. As the article points out, US equities are grossly overvalued and these equities markets are falling causing Trillions of dollars of investor wealth to vanish into the ether. I would expect that the USD will fall in tandem as the markets continue to crash. The future looks "Golden".
Black Blade
U.S. stocks suffer worst week since September
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/020427/01b427b5d8724e2d160bc8dda6190473_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks suffered their most disastrous week since late September, with the Nasdaq down 7.4 percent, the Dow off 3.4 percent and the broad S&P 500 down 4.4 percent. You'd never tell from the 5.8 percent gain in first-quarter GDP that investors are worried about the state of the economy. But worried they are. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the bulk of the economic growth is coming from the rebuilding of inventories -- and not from new business investment. And if consumers waver and companies don't start ramping up spending plans soon, inventories will begin to retrench once again and produce a relapse into recession.


Black Blade: The US is still in Recession and will likely remain in a deepening Recession. US equities are grossly overvalued and corporate earnings have failed to materialize. The consumer and corporate America are burdened with record levels of crushing debt. There is no choice expect to accept the fact that the markets must fall to reasonably priced levels. When the S&P 500 sports a "actual" (not operating earnings) PE of about 60, the index is overvalued by more than 4 times a reasonable historical PE valuation, and that is when the outlook suggests earnings growth going forward � not like now when earnings warnings common. I would expect that soon the markets will dive and frightened investors search for alternative investments or wealth preservation. One of those alternative sectors of course is Gold.
Black Blade
Avgold in currency double-whammy
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BA500622810?OpenDocument
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG � Avgold [JSE:AVG], the listed gold producing subsidiary of South African mining house Anglovaal Mining [JSE:AIN], enjoyed a thin 2.4 percent increase in average gold sales compared to the 20 percent improvement if could have received had the gold company been unhedged. In contrast, the depreciation of the rand and the improvement in the dollar gold price is likely to improve gross revenue for South Africa's other gold producers by leaps and bounds when the balance report their March quarterly operating and financial figures. Durban Roodepoort Deep reports tomorrow (25 May), but it's Gold Fields and Harmony Gold that will really show the benefits of being unhedged.

The mark-to-market value of the hedge book was a negative R1.2 billion at a gold price of roughly $303 per ounce. At today's price, testing about $305 per ounce, Avgold's opportunity losses will have deepened. "The negative value of the book represents an opportunity loss which is continuing to be actively managed," the company said. Having to hedge production has taken the gloss off Avgold's Target gold mine. That's a bit hard on Avgold, since the company had no choice but to commit to hedging as a covenant to bank debt. Only months later the dollar gold price picked up its head. But who knew?


Black Blade: Hedging is taking down another hedge fund miner. It was inevitable. It is obvious why hedge fund miners (such as AngloGold, Ashanti, Cambior, Durban, etc.) are bailing out of forward sold positions. Many hedge fund miners are under water on their hedge books. The day of the hedger is over.
Old Yeller
Fresh out of miracles,how about some more debt?
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
The recovery being trumpeted loudly throughout the land is dubious at best.

The authorities continue their deception of the American people at their own peril.Some of the charts presented here
of the true pictures of Mr.G's quaintly termed "imbalances",are frightening.

How does one gently lower the value of the dollar,while at the same time attract $400 billion of offshore savings to reconcile the books.Meanwhile,interest rates must stabilize or fall to keep consumers and companies solvent.Next,fund
massive government spending and contemplate going to war because someone is deemed to be dangerous to world peace.

Someone is dangerous all right,dangerously ambiguous,dangerously deceptive and definitely dangerous to world peace and prosperity.
Belgian
1970 >>> 2002
Having studied the statistical charts (long term) on display in the contraryinvestor's archives...inspired to some conclusions :
The charts of ALL macro-economic data of past 30 years do show 2 very distinct periods : 1970 to 1980 (I) and 1980 and present (II).

I / Ten years of expansion. Year on year Growth, nominal + real. 1970 > 1980 was the culminative result of policy-options taken during the sixties. 1971 POG exploded (x 25).

II/ 1980 was the year where lots of all time highs were registered and the global managers realised that ALL economical policies had the effect of running things out of hand. They decided to change dramatically. They wanted ANOTHER kind of *growth* (and expansion)! A more genuine and sustainable growth ? A more disciplined expansion ?
POG was *used* and confirmed the policies that were decided on.

Today we start realising that both periods (I and II) are nothing more than *periods*, where homo economicus has been experimenting with the up until now, known, economic policy options. And both systems don't work to our satisfaction.
Both lead to deathpoints.

The reason for this is simple : We always want to grow too fast and much too unbalanced. Therefore a lot of artificiality needs to be build into the system. Too much management, over-engeneering to be compared with artificial insemination.

Much More than 25 trillion $ (last know total Bond-Debt) were necessary to arrive at a global GDP (nominal or real) of 40 trillion $. Now we are reaching another ATH with 5 $ on debt for each 1 $ of GDP expansion ! Very close to another deathpoint (surely not the last one).

Period *I* was inflationary growth, period *II* is/was deflationary growth...period *III* will go HYPERINFLATIONARY WITH DESTRUCTION in anticipation of a new set of economic policies/options to be started from ground zero. Global economy has to land (crash) and can't be refueled in the air whilst flying. The floating (flying) currency and Debt parts of the economic jumbo need complete overhaul/replacement. Hyperinflation is the diving trajectory of the plane.

This is exactly what GOLD has been waiting for ! Gold will be related to currencies and trade settlements in yet another fashion as the ones that preceded during the past milleniums. Gold will remain *ABSOLUTE* and everything else will remain "relative" to it. Ready to withdraw this statement, immediately, as soon as anyone can come up with another absolute (tangible) to wich can be refered to relativate everything else of Value. Gold is not oil !!!
Gold is NOT consumed. Even land/water/air, can become worthless when intoxicated.

Gold has been put on reserve (not sacked/discarded) for the past 20 years and will soon be re-employed for that same old job it has been doing for millenia. THE ABSOLUTE VALUATOR OF ALL RELATIVES !
Hipplebeck
Placer Dome in on the Venezuela coup.
http://www.vheadline.com/0204/11992.aspAttempt to control Las Cristanis
Black Blade
Don't Count On Canadian Natural Gas
http://hubbert.mines.edu/
The new Hubbert Peak newletter (pdf file) reveals that NG production in Canada is nearly hit the wall. Increasing domestic demand and static to declining production means less available NG for the US. Don't count on Mexico either. Mexico imports NG from Texas now and demand is increasing. It is also now known that NG in the Athabasca Tar Sands will soon go into decline (2003) as it is used to process synfuels. T

he decline rate for domestic US NatGas has increased to 24% and in some areas (such as the Powder River Basin, WY) it is as high as 29%. Most of the large NG fields are are over 20 years old and are in serious decline. Nearly all new fields are smaller, deeper, or are non-conventional sources with higher decline rates.

Many suggest that the large inventory in storage is cause for celebration, however, the increase is due to warm weather, deepening economic recession, and several new storage facilities for new power NG-fired power plants. 275 new and planned NG-fire power plants are scheduled to be online over the next 5 years as older coal and oil-fired power plants are retired.

The drought in the east and midwest will mean much of hydroelectric supply will not be available this year, several Nuclear power plants are scheduled for extended maintenance, and fewer "carbon credits" are available for coal-fired power plants. If the NOAA is correct in their projections then we may have a hot summer and that means more electricity demand as air conditioners are fired up. Add to all this the fact that there is less exploration and production of NG in the US this year. We just may see a repeat of the California energy crisis late this year. In other words, scratch on US economic recovery and plan on a deeper economic recession.

- Black Blade
Mr. Bill
@darkhorse
Perhaps you could post the prescription used for your lenses. Then maybe we all could see things from the same perspective.
Rock
Great read Artic Fox
I really enjoyed those reads Bill. Thanks for the enlightening data.

Sir Rock
Boilermaker
Hydro
Many thanks for yesterday's correction of my misuse of the word proscribe vs. prescribe. You are correct that I did mean prescribe.
darkhorse
@Mr. Bill
Common sense, wise counsel and knowing how to use the brains God gave me.
EagleOne
Black Blade Msg. #74479 et al
I thank you and my family thanks you for your relentless pursuit and presentation of the reality of *cheap energy*.
And of course thanks to our host for giving you the opportunity.
SteveH
Any lawyers out there?
Below is a letter to Mr. Butler from CTFC. Correct me if I am wrong, but a Writ of Mandamus could be filed against the CTFC for failure to investigate. The Court can ensure they do investigate, but not the finding of the investigation. Failure of a public officical whose task it is to investigate alleged violation of law, is itself violating its charter. A court could order it to use its discretion, not what the discretion is. If sufficient evidence was provided to a court, the court could order the CTFC to exercise its discretion. Failure on the part of the CTFC to look into or use its discretion can be a cause of court action against the CTFC, no?

Mr. Butler...

The CFTC's Reply of April 12, 2002, And My Response

April 12, 2002

Dear Mr. Butler:

This is in response to your letters of February 12, March 11, March 25, April 1, and April 8, 2002 in which you alleged an "ongoing manipulation in the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) silver contract." You cite as evidence a concentration in net short positions by 4 or less traders that you believe "defies economic justification." Your allegation would potentially involve violations of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) and Exchange rules prohibiting price manipulation.

The Commodity Exchange Act makes it unlawful to manipulate or attempt to manipulate the market price of any commodity in interstate commerce, or for future delivery on or subject to the rules of any contract market. In order to prove a manipulation, it must be shown that a trader intentionally caused the price of a commodity to become artificial or, in other words, intentionally moved the price of a commodity away from a level reflecting the legitimate forces of supply and demand.

Thank you for the information contained in your letters. As to your suggestion that the Commission should disclose the identity of traders, Section 8(a)(1) of the Commodity Exchange Act provides that the "Commission may not publish data and information that would separately disclose the business transactions or market positions of any person."

I hope this information is helpful to you.

Sincerely,

William C. Kokontis
Acting Director
Market Surveillance Section



The Honorable James E. Newsome April 22, 2002
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Washington DC 20581 VIA FAX and E-MAIL

Dear Chairman Newsome:

Thank you for the response of April 12, 2002, from your new Acting Director of Market Surveillance, Mr. William C. Kokontis, to my five (5) letters concerning the ongoing manipulation in the Commodity Exchange, Inc.(COMEX) silver contract, by the 4 or less traders with the uneconomically large and concentrated net short position.

Since this is the first response I have ever received from your agency that didn't refute my allegations about this ongoing manipulation, nor disagree with the information I provided, I understand that you now see the problem and intend to act upon it. Hooray and Hallelujah. I wish you luck in rooting out and punishing the perpetrators of this manipulation.

According to your most recently released Commitment of Traders Report (COT), of April 19, 2002, for positions held as of April 16, 2002, the 4 or less concentrated shorts have succeeded in reducing their net short position by some 6000 contracts, or 30 million ounces of silver, in the sell-off in silver prices they have engineered over the past two weeks. This is just as I predicted, and as has occurred on a regular basis for years. Real hedgers don't trade such quantities on a 20 cents per ounce move, only manipulators do. Of course, the 4 or less traders are still net short over 183 million ounces of silver futures, much more than when I first wrote to you.

If you investigate fully, you will see that the dominant commercial net short position holders have actually increased their net short position dramatically in percentage terms, compared to the entire commercial net short position. In the two weeks in which the manipulators reduced their absolute net short position, the concentrated net short position of the 4 or less traders increased from under 72% of the total net commercial short position, to over 85% of the total commercial net short position. This is an unprecedented concentration.

Regarding my suggestion that the Commission disclose the identity of very concentrated position holders in all regulated markets - I knew it was in contrast to current law when I made the suggestion. But I also know that the Commission is continuously working with Congress to update and improve the code. There is no good reason for you not to try and implement my suggestion, as the markets are clamoring for more disclosure and transparency.

I am grateful and encouraged that the Commission finally recognizes this problem, and I await your follow-through. The American silver mining industry faces bankruptcy and extinction due the unlawful activities of the manipulators. Only your forceful and immediate action can save it.

Respectfully yours,
Ted Butler
A Canadian
The Tide is Turning.....

Alarm-radio woke me yesterday at 5:30 am (to face my tanking contracting business) and low and behold the first thing to greet me was an interview with a GOLD ANALYST!!(some putz from Mitsubishi). A stupid grin spread across my face at the realisation of the impending stampede on the horizon. Although mainstream coverage tends to be out to lunch, the fact that it finally exists is great.

With major SM indices still on schedule to correct further down and with real estate and the U.S. dollar not far behind,investors are being forced to face the reality (while kicking and screaming)that a radical change in wealth preservation strategy is the only "safe haven".

I have tried to help many stockmarket casualties in the past year with talk of gold...was usually received with incredulous looks...might as well have been speaking about Roswell New Mexico!...but not anymore! now at least they listen (but still don't move while waiting for the herd to confirm the obvious.) The markets are speaking for themselves and soon all will have no choice but to listen. The tide is turning indeed...

Many thanks from this lazy lurker who HAS been listening and frantically constructing his own FORT KNOX. Bring it on Greenie, you can't hurt me. ( Is there any way to digitally send a couple of pitchers of mead to the round table?)
shades
a lesson in semantics re butler response
It would seem that if the federal reserve can bypass a constitutional decree that no STATE shall print money ( or words to that effect) why cant the same method be used to force the CFTC to divulge the business transactions or market positions (sec a 1 ) of any CONGLOMERATE that is forcing silver manipulation and not Person as described in the section. What is the CFTC telling us in this section? FWIW
pdeep
Nailed to the cross of an over-valued dollar
http://www.cepr.net/columns/weisbrot/trade_deficit_driven_by_bad_policy.htmI had been thinking about the forces which have come into play over the past few years to supress the price of gold, and maintain a relative over-valuation of the dollar. The answer can be found in "follow the money." Thanks to the Web, I found this link which serves as a good reality test, mirroring some of my thoughts. A plutocracy of the rich, with the likes of JPM and GS at the helm, wrapped themselves in the the flags of of "Free trade" and "Open markets" while at the same time engaging in currency and gold manipulation which would have caused Adam Smith apoplexy. Who benefits from an over-valued dollar and therefore the under-valuation of the only absolute currency, gold? Multinationals corporations, since they can buy foreign assets assets and labor at bargain prices, move production facilities abroad, sell products back into the country at a virtual discount, causing further contraction of what is left of our manufacturing concerns. Financiers, like JPM and GS, reap the benefits of high rates of return of dollar-denominated loans from countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar price, and when those cuntries (like Argentina) devolve, they can move in and buy assets at discount values. A wrecked economy is just another opportunity, and they know that those foreign loans will be paid back, thanks to the maniupulations of the IMF. Meanwhile, holders of US bonds, and GSE's like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enjoy the benefits of relative low interest rates, inducing US consumers to refinance, borrow, and increase their debt to historic levels. Meanwhile, the same financiers enjoyed the wonderful carry trades, where yen and gold are borrowed, and the proceeds reinvested in higher interest rate dollar based paper. The losers are the millions of Americans who lost manufacturing jobs as they moved to countries like Mexico, and the American economy as a whole, whose only major real products are in the high tech sector, which through a combination of artificially low interest interest rates and dollar bubble induced mania now have so much overcapacity that it will literally take years for supply and demand to come into balance. Finally, those investors who believed in the hype of Wall street and invested money in the tech markets only to watch it vaporize or end up in the pockets of the insider hucksters.

The good news is that the dollar currency / gold manipulation is unraveling, and we're witnessing the first visible (to the majority of investors here and abroad) cracks in the system, though participants in this forum have known about it for a long time, thanks to A and FOA's warnings, and have hopefully prepared themselves. The bad news is that when the dollar finally crashes, the value will have been skimmed by the rich financiers and insiders. It will cause tremendous pain and dislocation, as all discover the reality that the house of the dollar was built on the quicksand of fiat. I hope that it is not free markets and free trade that become the scapegoats, since they have never existed, and if they did, could never have resulted in this disaster, but that the real culprits, a la Enron, will be brought to an accounting, from the Federal Reserve and US Treasury, Rubin, Greenspan and Sommers, to the rich houses on Wall street. Maybe some populist genius will emerge (Ron Paul?) who can concisely frame the manipulation and corruption so that it is understood and acted on by the majority.... Thanks to all for your informative posts over the years, to MK for providing a forum and golden life preservers, and to the readers who suffered through this rant!
Mr Gresham
pdeep, A Canadian
A Canadian: "Bring it on Greenie, you can't hurt me. " That's gotta be our one-liner of the day!

pdeep -- that was a great overview, returning wisely to the perpetual legal question "qui bono" -- who benefitted from the crime(s)? Making them the most likely suspects, unindictable, of course.

And they'll get away with most of their real assets intact -- homes in several countries, PMs (almost wrote PMS -- they can have that, too ;), ownership of businesses that own productive assets and will continue, boats and cars, etc. etc.

Their paper losses will be proportionately less ("just part of playing the game") while other simpler folk will have lost proportionately more -- suitable employment, pensions, education savings, etc. (Wait till the middle-class hunger/starvation stories arrive from Argentina. Dress rehearsal for our own...)
slingshot
Crossroads
Reflection. Will tomorrows POG exceed the initial price at which I first started buying? Compared to some at this forum my ride to the bottom, $255.00 was short lived. My window of opportunity is closing but during this time I was able to aquire some insurance against the possible bad times ahead.
As always a Thank You to USAGOLD and to all, past and present posters. More important is the Why for my thank you.
USAGOLDs Forum, is the most informative. The dedication of individuals to post the most up to date information from around the globe concerning Gold , is second to none. Our Host has sponsored contests and opened his vaults just to hear our opinions and is most tolerant when we venture into off topics. May I add we should not take advantage of his
patience. I can only guess what it takes to put a website together, but I can see what it takes to make it work.
That makes all the difference.
The wheels of the goldrush are picking up speed. In the near future the posts of the $311.00 gold will be history.
I am looking forward to reading USA's Archives with a big smile.
Slingshot-----------------<>

tedw
Cusac gold
Any informantion on Cusac Gold (CUSIF) greatly appreciated.

Old Yeller
More on the "recovery"
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=26042002-050404-9542r
Not very healthy looking,especially the increases of government largesse.When Bush was elected,George Ure immediately dubbed him "Herbert Hoover Bush".

Of course,that was well before the "War on Terrorism",which neatly dovetails with Bush and his father's business interests.In retrospect,the immediate increases in stock prices of defense industries following Bush's election looks all the more suspect.
pdeep
Level playing fields
Mr Gresham, "cui bono" pretty much sums it up. I had some hope that Howe's lawsuit would proceed, but then again I have been accused of being an optimist. As a prudent invostor, it became clear a long time ago that the playing field was not level, and I adjusted accordingly. But it was a real eye opener to realize (thanks to some informed analysis such as found on this forum) that it went further than that, because the possibility of long-term preservation of wealth in dollars is not possible, that the people "entrusted" to manage the paper medium of exchange are just as sociopathic as the likes of Fastow and Lay. The idea that the US money system, such as it exists, has been used to decimate not only the US economy, but the economies of a large nujmber of other countires, required some time for me to accept. We've gone from having a dynamic industrial base that turned natural resources into products, to a nation of consumer and service heads that have to import almost everything in daily use. The computer I'm writing this from, the car I drove this afternoon, the clothes I wear, the list is endless. The very same crooks have engaged in time-travel robbery, stealing value from the future (how much is our public and private debt?), from those not even born yet. What should have been a mild, steady deflation with wages slipping at a slower rate than prices, due to technological advances, has been turned into a monetary inflation unique in economic history. To slip into the vulgate, I'm extremely pissed off. I'll withstand the coming storm, but when I compare what probably will unfold, to what could have been if we had not given the banks away to the gangsters, the rage intensifies. And as you point out, the gangsters will never be called on to make amends. Even if they were called on it, which as you point out is highly unlikely, there's not enough real wealth in world to accomplish that.
Mr. Bill
@darkhorse
Now that you have the proper perspective, maybe you should look again.
Horatio
Barrick
I've been away for a week and came back to good news..

UPDATE 3-Barrick unveils rich Peruvian gold find

(Adds Pierina comments paragraphs 13-15) By Scott Anderson

TORONTO, April 23 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. said on Tuesday that
a $6 million investment in a remote property high in the mountains of Peru has netted it
one of its most significant gold discoveries of the past decade, helping it expand its
presence in South America.

Barrick Gold, the world's second-biggest gold producer, said on Tuesday the discovery at
its Alto Chicama property in north-central Peru could contain more than 3.5 million ounces
of gold.

"This is one of the most significant gold finds in the past decade and the most significant
grass-roots discovery in the history of Barrick," Randall Oliphant, the company's president
and chief executive, told Reuters.

The find could also kick-start development of Barrick's other properties in the area, giving
the already dominant gold miner more presence in the area.

What is even more satisfying for Barrick is that it won the property for what could be
considered spare change to a company that has more than $700 million in cash on hand.

Barrick has been exploring the property since early 2001 after it was the only bidder in a
tender by Centromin, the Peruvian state mining company.

The only financial commitment Barrick had to make was to agree to spend $6 million over
a three-year period and prepare a feasibility study for mine development. It has already
spent $3 million.

It must pay an additional $2 million and give Centromin a net smelter royalty of 2.5
percent over the life of the mine.

"The deal was set up in such a way that you had to spend exploration dollars to earn the
interest. If we didn't find anything, we were going to walk from it," Alex Davidson,
Barrick's senior vice-president of exploration, told a news conference.

"We felt good about it and of the potential of the property. We felt good about the area.
We were prepared to take a punt and pleased that we were the only bidders."

SIXTY HOLES DRILLED SO FAR

Barrick said it will increase its 2002 exploration and development program for Alto
Chicama to $20 million from $5 million.

The discovery is about 175 km (105 miles) north of its Pierina property, a low-cost
producer.

In Lima, Pierina Managing Director Igor Gonzales told reporters Pierina's production was
expected to fall to 820,000 ounces this year, from 911,000 ounces in 2001, because of
lower-grade ores.

"However, this forecast could change. Last year, we were expecting 870,000 ounces and
we finished the year with 911,000," he said. Pierina has reserves of 4 million ounces with
an average grade of 2.4 grams per tonne and production costs of $70 per ounce, he said,
adding the company expected to invest $2 million in Pierina this year.

"For the moment, in Chicama we have drilled 60 holes but we still have more to do,"
Gonzales said. "Although, as far as we can see, it is an oxides deposit similar to Pierina
which is good from the point of view of ease of treatment."

In 2001, Pierina produced 911,000 ounces of gold at a cost of $40 an ounce.
R Powell
Mr. Bill/ Endgame/ Silver Trules
Thanks for the link. I read some of Endgames essays and have some comments on "Silver Trules".
Endgame says "trules" is a combination of tools and rules and applies these to the current silver market. His thoughts are not historically correct concerning the 1979-1980 silver market but reflect the common misconception that the sons of H.L.Hunt, Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt tried to corner the market. In reality the Hunts started accumulating silver about 1973 as did the House of Saud who were also long in 1979-1980 dealing with Norton Waltuch of ContiCommodity Services. There were also other huge long positions from other agents representing Mid-east interests.
As to the Hunts, they willingly agreed to offset for cash, roll over into distant delivery dates or exchange long positions for physical when asked by the CFTC. They agreed not to add to their long position when asked. They also terminated longs directly (exchange for physical) with Mocatta (big short) to relieve tensions on Comex. The Hunts went as far as to exchange for less than 99.9% acceptable silver. They were by no means attempting a corner but could not meet margin reguirements after the exchange greatly increased them and, also initiated a "liquidation-only" order on the market. This meant the only buying available (allowable) was from the selling from an established long position. This will sink ANY market. The Hunts did NOT corner the silver market, did NOT attempt to corner it and were themselves trapped by rule changes initiated by market regulators defending the shorts. Sound familar?
Endgame also speculates that silver has been accumulated over a length of time. Agreed, as with most any commodity, it's owned by someone. Endgame also states that silver is no longer money, just another commodity. This is his opinion, I disagree, but I see this as a mute point. Endgame does not but says that as silver is no longer money and further since digital photography is destroying that 40% of demand that supplies photography, silver now has less value. He further argues that the accumulaters now want to manipulate sentiment (price) upward in the silver market so that they can unload their long-time accumulated silver (since it is no longer money).
This arguement is hogwash. Silver did not become valueless just because the government no longer uses it for money (coins in circulation) or someone no longer considers it as money. It's three main uses, in coins and jewelry, in photography and as an industrial metal exist now and will continue to exist whether or not you or I think of silver as money or as a commodity.
Silver is not a transparent market but the best figures or most widely accepted come from Gold Fields Mineral Service once a year in the annual Silver Survey (due out next Month for calendar year 2001). These numbers show only a very slight decline in silver use in photography. The number of film using cameras in the world is increasing much faster than the number of film using cameras being retired from new digital camera buyers. In general, the demand for silver has been increasing yearly from the existing and ever growing uses for silver. A great deal of photographic silver use comes from photography that is not being replaced by digital such as in medical use.
Endgame now says that the hoarders of silver are trying to depress prices to slow new mining supply to create the right environment for a price run-up into which they can sell. This kind of market cycle is more the norm than unusual but I don't think it's silver hoarders trying to depress the POS. Most of those who have accumulated over many years are almost indifferent to the price as were the Hunts and the Saudis 22 years ago. They wanted physical. Many still do. Wealth preservation is not related to price movements for short, medium or long term gain. Wealth preservation is a hedge against currency valuation or, as Belgian says, the price and the value are not interchangeable terms.
Strangely enough, it was the government who helped arrange the loan so that the Hunts could cover their (inflated by rule changes) margin. The government's interest may have been not to disrupt by default a market in which the oil producing Middle East held long positions! Oil for gold? Yes. Oil for silver? Yes, again! Collateral for this Volcker arranged 1.1 billion dollar loan was arranged and the markets suffered only a scare, no real default. In fact, the POS bottomed above $11.00/ounce and quickly started upward again. Many of the long positions had been established well below $10.00/ounce.
Endgame sees the decline in photographic silver use as a "discontinuity" which he says is necessary for a price change. I've heard triggers called many things, even horsemen. Call it what you will, digital cameras are not going to cause a reduction in silver useage for many years (if at all!). Silver's use in energy transmittion in the near future may eclipse the current total photographic use. This is just one of the many emerging markets that will need silver.
Mr. Endgame's essay projects his opinion that the POS is heading lower but his arguement is only loosely based on facts of very questionable veracity. He would do well to read some history of the late 1979-1980 silver market and to also check the numbers (year over year) concerning silver use and photographic use in particular. His facts are incorrect and his arguement seems not much more than opinion based on these errors.
Happy weekend!
Rich

YGM
The Tension in the Air is Electrifying........
The Goldrush of 2002 Will reverberate around the World...........Websites, Analysts, Investment TV, Coffee Shops, Chat Groups, Financial Press, Executive Bars, Investment Reports, ...... you name it and Gold "IS" the main topic!
The holders, hunters, gatherers and advocates of Gold have arrived at the days of vindication. For those who lived in constant denial as we the few clung to our beliefs and kept open minds, I feel no sorrow. The abuse and ridicule heaped upon Gold Advocates has been mighty, and long endured! For some of us there's been great financial loss added to the mix. But no matter what the suffering or circumstance involved over the last few years, "I" for one (like many others) will look back with humility and pride on these past times. For it was such a time of renewal and learning. A time of pushing aside long held false ideals and attitudes and being privy to enlightenment from many great minds that have resided in these halls for so long and so selflessly educating. Thanks for the journey ladies & gentlemen it's been awesome, and the best is yet to come!

PS: Save some junk silver for the many new Hot-Dog and Sandwich Venders soon to be crowding the financial district in your City. "They won't have change for Gold!"....YGM.

"GO GATA, GO GOLD & GO PHYSICAL"
YGM
Horatio....Good News.
BARRICK??If this new find is good news I would hope to think you meant that it gave you a window (of oportunity) to unload if you do indeed hold Barrick paper. Check the Lemetropole Cafe report today. Bill has a couple (5) negatives to pass on, re: the Altitude/Depth of Deposit etc......YGM.
darkhorse
Mr. Bill, re: R Powell's 74496
Like I said...
Black Blade
Mexican gas demand may surge
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=49062
Mexio City - Mexican natural gas demand is expected to grow 8 per cent annually by 2010, requiring output to rise by some 4.8 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) to meet that, Mexico's state oil monopoly Pemex said. "If we want to satisfy that demand with production we need to virtually double production in the decade," Horacio Guevara, a director at Pemex in charge of designing multiple service contracts, told a meeting of businessmen.

Mexico currently produces around 4.5 billion cfd a day of natural gas, he said, noting that natural gas output was only growing at 6 per cent on average each year. The 2 per cent difference between production and demand is made up with imports. Last year, Mexico imported 292.2 billion cfd, or around 11 per cent of its gas needs. Oil and gas exploration has lagged in Mexico in the past years due to a lack of investment.


Black Blade: Mexico imports the shortfall of NG from the United States. Mexican production increases are limited due to the need for NG injection to keep oil production steady. Mexico has already passed the Hubbert Peak oil production and relies on NG injection for continued oil production. So anyone who believes that Mexico can supply any NG supply to the United States during the next energy crisis is sadly mistaken. We are headed toward a version of the "Perfect Storm" for energy and the consequences for the economy are obvious.

Mr. Bill
@R Powell
All that you state may be very well and good, but it does not seem to have much relevance to the posts there. Maybe you did not read far enough. My take is that silver will be used in a sting operation. Both metals will be driven high. At a certain point silver will be delivered. This will cause a collapse of the price of both metals. And then only gold will be repurchased.

This whole thing is driven by a collapse of the US dollar and a need to draw in as much gold as possible by the instigators of this scheme. Silver is just the vehicle. It is irrelevant as to what silvers prospects would normally be.
YGM
Mr. Bill......
Thanks.........for the link to this topic...I shall be up late again I fear. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, & time is well spent in these explorations of the financial netherworld.
To many facets of this NWO ideal being overlooked by the masses in denial.....Thanks....YGM.
sourdough
Where`s it gonna go?
April 29, 2002
Financial liquidity in Japan seen to have reached 100t yen

20t yen could head for foreign shores: ex-BOJ official

By
Anthony Rowley
In Tokyo



A SEA of financial liquidity of around 100 trillion yen (S$1.4 trillion) has built up in Japan as depositors fled bank time deposits and the Bank of Japan pumped huge amounts of money into the system.

According to some informed estimates, as much as 20 per cent of this could wash up on foreign shores, provoking capital outflows from Japan far in excess of those normally seen and boosting foreign bond and stock markets, as well as triggering further declines in the value of the yen.

Where the money goes to depends in part upon how Japanese investors view foreign exchange risks, analysts say.





With a growing perception that the 'strong' US dollar may be about to 'correct' substantially in the short to medium term, Japanese investors may fight shy of dollar securities and prefer euro or sterling bonds and equities as well as emerging market securities in Asia and elsewhere, they suggest.

The liquidity build-up in Japan reflects in part the alarm felt by financial institutions, companies and individuals as the end of the so-called 'payoff' period approached on March 31, after which the authorities ceased to offer a blanket guarantee on time deposits in the event of bank failures, and instead limited the official guarantee to just 10 million yen.

The desire to hold cash or 'near cash' also mirrors the general unease that customers feel about the safety of banks in general, analysts say.

According to one former senior Bank of Japan official, funds withdrawn from time deposits and converted into demand deposits in recent months amount to 30-40 trillion yen.

With huge holdings of cash and 'short-term paper' of one kind or another in Japan, total liquidity in the system probably amounts to around 100 trillion yen at present, he said.

The BOJ has also boosted its target for 'excess' bank reserves from five trillion yen to 15 trillion yen - further boosting liquidity.

'The question is, where will this money go?' said the former official, who remains close to the central bank. As much as 20 trillion yen of it could 'go abroad', he speculated, with the main impetus behind the outflows coming from financial institutions and business corporations.

An outflow of this size would be very significant since it would equal nearly twice Japan's annual current account surplus, one OECD official in Tokyo told The Business Times.

Gold has been one beneficiary from the tidal wave of liquidity in Japan. Japanese gold purchases during the January-March period were 3.5 times higher than their level a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. Purchases of gold bullion amounted to 45 tonnes worth 65 billion yen in total during the period.

But while gold purchases in Japan remain at a high level (with prices rising accordingly), they still are absorbing only a tiny proportion of the total liquidity sitting in current accounts at major banks and in the postal savings system, or held in cash.

If as much as 20 trillion yen of this were to flow overseas, as suggested, this would boost very considerably the value of foreign securities held by Japanese financial institutions, companies and individuals and could have a marked impact upon a range of foreign assets from US Treasury bonds and euro bonds to major and emerging equity markets, analysts say.

In the first quarter of this year, some four trillion yen of Japanese funds flowed into overseas bond markets, according to the Ministry of Finance and while there were heavy repatriations just before the end of the final year, outflows are expected to pick up sharply again.

'Japan's external assets have swollen to record levels,' according to economist Tomoko Fujii at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney in Tokyo. 'The yen value of foreign assets outstanding climbed by 8 per cent to an all time high of just under 364 trillion yen in calendar 2001,' she says. This included more than 100 trillion yen of overseas loans by Japanese banks and also 'direct investment' in manufacturing and other business by Japanese companies, while the total value of overseas financial securities held reached just over 200 trillion yen.

Canuck
Puplava is red hot
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm?321gold"It is only a matter of time before we face another LTCM or Enron or the simultaneous occurrence of multiple LTCMs and Enrons hitting the markets at the same time. The question now is who is on the wrong side of a trade. Below the surface, rumors are flying that someone big on The Street is in trouble with their derivative book. The question is not if, but when and who."
Artie Farkle
See spot jump!
: )
mikal
Ignorance is bliss
"We Communists are like seeds and the people and the people are the soil. Wherever we go, we must unite with the people, take root and blossom among them."- Mao Tse-Tung "[Communism] has never come to power in a country that was not disrupted by war or internal corruption or both."- John F. Kennedy, speech, July 3, 1963
Canuck
POG
Kitco has gold up $0.40 to 311.80 and INO has gold up $1.05 to $312.30.

mikal
From Canada
From Canada's Financial Post:
E-mail message

From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com Date: Sun, Apr 28, 2002, 5:42pm (EDT-1) To: constellation3@webtv.net Subject: [GATA] Financial Post story on new bullion fund cites GATA
Le Metropole Members,
[GATA] Financial Post story on new bullion fund cites GATA Date: 4/28/2002 3:10:22 PM Central Standard Time From: GATAComm@aol.com To: gata@yahoogroups.com
4p ET Sunday, April 28, 2002
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The story below from Canada's Financial Post, about a new bullion investment fund, mentions GATA's work.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
Bullion fund holds equal weights
in gold, silver, and platinum
By Jonathan Chevreau
Financial Post (Canada)
April 25, 2002
More than two years after it was originally meant to be released, the Millennium
Bullionfund has finally received regulatory approval and is available for sale in
Ontario. Registration in other provinces is expected at the end of the summer.
Managed by Toronto-based Bullion Management Services Inc., the mutual fund trust is
invested one third in physical gold, one third in silver bullion and one third in platinum, says president Nick Barisheff. There are no derivatives, futures contracts or options, just the actual physical precious metals, which will be delivered to investors if requested. Up to 5% cash may be held.
Otherwise, the bullion is held in a
segregated vault at the Bank of Nova Scotia, with twice-yearly inspections by auditors at Ernst & Young. Barisheff buys each metal at the prevailing spot price and has insurance to protect against destruction or theft. The annual management fee is 2.25%, which allows the firm to pay dealers trailer fees
comparable to other mutual funds. There is also an early redemption fee.
Barisheff created the fund for Canadian RRSP and RRIF investors who before now have not been able to hold bullion either directly or through an open-ended fund in registered plans. Most RRSP investors participate
indirectly through precious metals mutual funds, which usually own mining stocks rather than the underlying bullion. The only other fund to hold bullion is the Central Fund of Canada Ltd., a closed-end fund.
Barisheff concedes gold stocks or mutual funds offer a more leveraged play but views his new fund as a cash equivalent that hedges against paper-based assets. Gold bullion is up from US$254 this time a year ago to more than US$300 currently, but some precious metals funds are up 100%.
If the global economy deteriorates the way he expects it might, Barisheff believes physical metals may hold their value better than mere paper, whether stocks or funds.
For history to repeat gold's rise from US$35 in the 1970s to US$800 in January, 1980, gold would have to rise to US$6,000, a possibility Barisheff can envision.
He's convinced the global economy of the early 2000s is gloomier than the conditions of the 1970s which contributed to the last surge in gold prices.
His Web site at www.bullionfund.com outlines the forces he believes will make the last year's runup a mere prelude to what may come. If the artificial supply of leased gold were removed, that alone would make the
equilibrium price of gold more than US$700 an ounce.
Barisheff originally developed the fund with a hope to beating the expected Y2K rush to precious metals. Delays from the Ontario Securities Commission prevented him making the deadline, but the fund finally was
approved in January and was available for sale in March.
Barisheff says precious metals currently offer a "rare risk/reward relationship." While he sees a huge upside, he believes that because the gold price is near its production cost, gold's floor is US$250.
Demand for gold, silver and platinum
outstrips mine supply, he says. With silver, "a situation is rapidly developing in which above-ground stocks will be completely
depleted in 2002."
Barisheff has his eye on a dozen possible events that could trigger the next rise in metals prices. These include war, terrorism, an unexpected collapse in derivatives
markets, a move by foreign currency holders to the euro and a court victory by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.
R Powell
Mr. Bill
My previous comments, as I stated, were a response to one of Endgame's articles, namely "Silver Trules"
I thought I had clearly stated that Mr. Endgame's historical facts are fiction. His statement that digital photography will greatly decrease silver use is also incorrect. Digital photography is not new. The amount os silver consumed in photographic use has increased every year with the exception of a slight decrease in the year 2000.
How can you not see the "relevance to the posts there" (meaning Endgame's essays). I'm saying that opinions based on totally distorted history and on incorrect factual statistical useage numbers is hogwash. Garbage in, garbage out.

I'll agree with Endgame that the POG and POS are headed higher. We disagree on why. He points to manipulation. I see many fundamental reasons and the possible ending of market manipulative forces, namely reduced mining company hedging, forward bullion bank sales resulting from leasing and a possible end to government intervention supporting an overvalued dollar. I'll agree also that "AT a certain point silver will be delivered". Of course. When the price of any commodity goes up, the higher price stimulates more production and dishoarding. There is a greater supply of silver available in above ground, ready for delivery form right now at $20.00/ounce than there is a $5.00/ounce. Indeed, grandma's tea set and some collectable coins may become available at $100.00/ounce
It's interesting that Endgame thinks silver is hidden with the express purpose of supplying the market after prices of both gold and silver have advanced AND with the express purpose of lowering the price of both. He has already stated in "Silver Trules" that silver is no longer money, just a commodity so, why does he think that lowering the POS will also lower the POG? Why not manipulate the price of cotton or soybeans higher, then lower them with the dishoarding of hidden stores to lower the POG? Cotton and soybeans, like silver are just commodities (according to Endgame) and not considered money. Yet he basis his conspiracy theory on a given assumption that lowering the POS will automatically lower the POG. ( I happen to agree, but I consider both metals as a store of wealth, money).
I admit to not reading all the essays. Why should I read more opinions based on errors? He gives no references and very few facts. Those that he did rely on in "Silver Trules" I know to be false. Would you listen to numerous essays written on mathematics if the author started by stating that 2+2=7??
If Endgame opines that a collapse of the U.S.$ will raise the POS, I'll nod in agreement. Supplying a national trade deficit by increasing debt created paper money will IMHO eventually cause the devaluation of that currency. When this happens and as its result I'm guessing that silver and gold won't be the only things to be taged with higher numerical dollar valuations. I think all tangible commodities are going to advance in price during the rest of this year and throughout 2003. Most will at least double in price. Some will double again. It's not inconcievable that some like sugar, gold and silver may double yet again.
I routinely receive solicitations from salesmen trying to raise money (my money!), mostly to trade in commodities investment pools (funds) or to invest in oil exploration or emerging bio-tech companies. I am a poor man, have no extra money to invest and certainly wouldn't give it to others to invest even if I had! However, I'm on their calling lists and often talk with them after they've read their prepared sales pitch. Most know very little beyond that sales pitch line but will forward me to more knowledgeable personel. Sometimes I gain information from them but mostly I'm amazed by how little they know of that which they're promoting. When their sales pitch predictions are loosely based on facts which I know to be false and they have no further knowledge of the subject, then what have I to gain?
They don't know their facts are flawed and don't care that their facts are lies! Endgame's thoughts are based on assumptions that I know to be false. There is too much well researched, well written, substantiated and footnoted knowledge available and so little time. Thanks again for the reference but unless others have some positive remarks in Endgame's favor, I'll read elsewhere.
Rich

Black Blade
Rising Oil Prices Bad News for Wall St.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020428/stocks_oil_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is having a flashback -- to the 1970s.

Investors, casting a nervous eye on rising oil prices, are worried about escalating violence in the Middle East. "There is an inverse historical relationship between the stock market and oil prices," said Fadel Gheit, oil equities analyst with brokerage Fahnestock & Co. "Low oil prices subsidize the economy and higher prices tax it."

Oil prices have been on the rise in recent months, hovering at around $26 a barrel, and analysts warn the nascent economic recovery in the world's largest economy might be in danger of being derailed, should they go back up to over $30.

The impact of rising energy costs was last felt in 2000, when crude shot as high as $38, sending costs higher for companies ranging from airlines to plastics manufacturers. This was partly to blame for the U.S. economic slowdown, which sent Wall Street deeper into bear market territory.

FRIGHTENING PROSPECT

Pundits are saying the flow of oil from the Middle East could even dry up if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalates to an all-out war. Some think Saudi Arabia may not be as willing to cover for shortages when others opt to cut back the supply. "This could spin out of control if (President George W.) Bush does not get it contained," Gheit said.


Black Blade: As I have been saying for quite some time. Of course we know the reaction of the Gold markets in the past when the POO moved higher. The POG dropped after the POO started down in 1996 (also along with the Bre-X scam). When the POO hit a low of $10.00/bbl we saw Gold test new lows. Lately the higher prices of oil along with last years energy crisis that triggered the current recession we now see the POG rising in response. Note that higher energy costs hit consumer spending and drop straight to the corporate bottom line. Remember the Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls last year spewing forth misinformation that energy was not important to the economy anymore? Now these same toads are crying about the rising costs of energy. Hmmm�
Mr. Bill
@R Powell
You still seem to keep basing all of your opinion on one issue, the digital camera. No one is arguing that the digital camera has had much effect yet, but that it probably will in the future. That was an early post looking for a reason to dump silver. Unless you explore the topic further, your opinion does not get to the heart of the matter. This is not a supply and demand issue, it is a "smell a rat" issue.
Ray Patten
Do the shorts have to buy over a million Gold contracts?
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?search=comex&count=50In my 40 years of trading commodity futures, I have found that it always pays to look at the numbers. This is a possible explanation for the coming spike in Gold prices that many people are expecting.

32,156 troy ounces per tonne X 5000 tonnes = 160,780,000 troy ounces divided by 100 = 1,607,800 Comex Gold futures contracts. (Correct my math if you know it's wrong.) The 5000 tonnes is the admitted total of leased Gold. We all know it's at least double that. If a decent percentage of this leased Gold tries to stop the pain by buying futures, we could see this rally happen in the next month. The key is going to be the open interest figures. Open interest has always told the story in Gold trading and this time will be no exception. Who will sell this tremendous total of contracts? The Exchange Stabalization Fund (also know as the Plunge Protection Team) is already short 100,000 contracts, so each $100 is going to cost them a $billion.

The above link has the Gold futures open interest figures for the previous day about noon New York time every business day. This site's News & Views page should also have them about that time. I'm not the first to say that this could be the greatest short squeeze in the history of finance.
R Powell
Mr Bill
I'd like to add that there are many analysts that have been warning of reduced silver use from digital photography. Both Philip Gotthelf and William Frejlich have been repeating this for years and are still saying so. Both of these are well known, respected commodity analysts. The discussion around this possibility was one of the reasons I searched for some sort of reliable, verifiable numbers on photographic silver use before and after the advent of digital cameras. I'm still looking for more reliable and verifiable numbers. However, analysis from the available numbers shows photographic use increasing. Many still believe otherwise. Maybe they have access to information that I can not find?
Also, the misconception that the Hunts did try to and did corner the silver market is probably the majority opinion or belief concerning the price advance in 1979-1980. I also thought this to be true until I researched further. I know that there is much I don't know. What I believe to be true that is in fact, not, is more harmful to me than that which I don't know. It takes two opinions to make a market!
Rich
shelllus
trapped?! shorts--you dont 'trap' a 500lb. gorilla--remember the Hunts cornered the silver market--only trouble was that the shorts they trapped ran the exchange AND changed the
rules rather than let themselves be ruined-the Hunts were ruined instead--so issue is WHO are the trapped gold shorts in 2002 and how high does their influence reach?--anyone disaagree?-please say so, i hope i am wrong
Mr. Bill
shelllus
Unless I am missing something also, if the leasor does not ask for the gold back, I would think that the leasee could wait until forever to pay it back.
mikal
@Christian
http://www1.timesofindia.com:80/articleshow.asp?art_id=8226817
MONDAY, APRIL 29, 2002
THE TIMES OF INDIA
WORLD: AMERICAS
CIA official warns terror attack unavoidable
AFP�[ SUNDAY, APRIL 28, 2002��7:20:04 AM ]
WASHINGTON: A top Central Intelligence Agency official has warned Americans that a new terrorist attack is unavoidable..............The warning was contained in an address delivered by Pavitt, who is in charge of all clandestine operations conducted by the agency, at an April 11 conference at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. The CIA released its transcript over this weekend.
US law enforcement agencies are already on heightened alert after the Federal Bureau of Investigation has issued at least two terrorism warnings over the past 10 days.
The FBI told local police officials it had intelligence information about attacks being planned against financial institutions in northeastern US states and against shopping malls.....click link for more
Christian: Could an incident on June 4, 2002 fulfill this warning? You have a good handle on their occult number games. What do you think?
GoldnSilver2002
The jokes on the cabal..the game is over and theres no escape
I wont flatter myself that anyone read my post last month in which i clearly stated april would be the match to lite the fire on gold.The cabal have an entirely different problem now,every time they drive down the price,more buying occurs in the dips as panicking shorts and wise investors jump in.The more they drive the price down,the more people buy gold.The perfect catch 22,do they allow gold to float up and allow the american people to realize the only thing making money is gold,or do they dump gold at what will soon become pathetically low prices ,thus increasing their own losses such as the idiots in the uk did?There is no escape now and gold will now slowly begin an exponential growth curve.As JP morgan chase and others collapse panick will set in and gold will drive higher crushing its enemies mercilessly all the way.

Soon the chinese will jump into the fray,quite intentionally'selling useless u.s dollars and increasing its gold reserve from 2 percent to closer to 15 percent.Simply put the usa has tried to dictate poverty to the rest of the world and the world will resoundingly say NO!All we can do now is sit back and watch the u.s media lie as everything unravels.Soon even the u.s business shows will be cancelled as people lose their money listening to these morons and liars leaving nothing in golds path as it soars past 1700 per oz by 2003.The game is over ...enjoy!
canamami
Will there be a CB dump? Does it matter?
Will one of the CB's attempt to derail this, or will this rally be allowed to survive? If the dollar is due for a tumble, the Fed/Treasury may want to keep its gold, which will soon rise in value and which may have strategic importance. The counter argument: What is the status of the Swiss gold which is to be sold? The great variable: grassroots and perhaps official demand in Japan, China and India.
Black Blade
canamami - CB Sales? It Does Not Matter

Does it matter if the CBs sell any Gold? They only sell to each other and the demand outstrips supply by about 1000 tons. Only the brain dead on Wall Street are concerned about CB sales. Note that the official sector Gold has been and still is about 32,000 tons over the last several years, so the much touted Gold sales have not contributed much to actual demand. Personally I would prefer that the official sector Gold was "liberated" to the people and taken out of the hands of our rulers. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
SPOT is getting jumpy tonight !! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTA[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GAND, if you like X's and O's -- check out the ALERT on the LINK ! $324 is next "bump-in-the-TRAIL"
<;-)
Sierra Madre
GoldnSilver2002
Well, all I can say is "Hmmmm..."

I've watched this show for a long time, longer than most, and from experience I have become a sceptical and would refrain from shouting "Yeehaah!" as Cheesy used to do.

You never know what these banksters are going to come up with. They always seem to have a new rabbit to pull out of the hat. Remember, at stake is the enormous worldwide influence of the U.S. of A. It is not going to be taken down easily. "Whatever it takes..."

We shall see what we shall see. Looks interesting, but let us be aware of the vast resources of those who wish to control gold.

Prepare mentally for $298 by next week. If it doesn't happen, fine and good. If it does, take it in stride.

Sierra
Black Blade
Gold Flat, Oil Lower, NG Higher
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is still hovering at $312.10/oz., Oil is lower by 27 cents, and NG is higher by 2 cents. Asian markets are trading lower tonight.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Market's Long Affair With Dollar Hits Rocks
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,51302,00.html
Snippit:

Analysts say U.S. assets have lost their allure. Stocks look expensive while bond markets, the biggest draw for funds in the past year, hardly seem a better bet in the face of rising interest rates.

Against this backdrop, analysts add, the United States just cannot keep drawing in cash to finance its huge current account deficit, already at $400 billion and getting bigger by the day. "That sword of Damocles is a focus again. We are positioned for this to be a real move to dollar weakness and have been encouraged by the events of the last week," said Tim O'Dell, fund manager at Investec Asset Management.


Black Blade: All good reasons to be leveraged with Gold and Silver. The markets may rally occasionally even though there is no real positive economic news, however, these will be empty rallies based on nothing more than hope.
Topaz
canamami
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/USDollar.htm Long time no see Your Honour, methinks this little runup is dollar strength related ie: a paper rally (see chart) but it may have unintended consequences in the short physical Dep't....the long term chart indicates we've been in a papergold Bull since 1999, so relax, sit back and watch ;-)
Interesting to note the IMF/ World Bank are on a mission to Africa to inspect all the good works their "Debt relief to poor Countries program" is achieving (Hastily organised I'll bet).....no doubt they'll be SO impressed, another Gold "swap" will be announced within the week.
Black Blade
Atlantic Wind Farm Hits Stormy Weather
http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=928C64EE-FC9A-4629-B4480B305554A518&Title=Atlantic%20Wind%20Farm%20Hits%20Stormy%20Weather
Snippit:

Wind power is the fastest growing alternative energy source in the world today. In the United States, the pace of wind power development was recently given a boost when the U.S. Congress renewed a tax incentive for companies to invest in wind energy. One of the beneficiaries could be a proposed project off the Atlantic coast of Cape Cod, in the northeastern state of Massachusetts. If built, it would be the nation's first off-shore wind farm. But the project faces fierce opposition from local residents.

With their huge rotating blades fully extended, the Cape Wind turbines will each be forty stories high. Opponents like to point out that this would make them taller than the Statue of Liberty. Longtime Cape resident Peter Hickman says that would create an eyesore for tourists and residents alike. "We think that this would represent an industrial intrusion, degradation is the right word, of a beautiful pristine body of water," he says. "If we lose our coastal waters, Cape Cod might as well be plunked down in the middle of Ohio."


Black Blade: Another humorous story of NIMBY. Environmentalism is nice as long as it affects someone else. We will see a lot of opposition to all energy projects (not just ANWR, power plants in California, drilling anywhere, transmission lines, pipelines, etc.). The economy does not exist without energy and with building up or upgrading our energy infrastructure we can cancel the "recovering economy" for a long time.


Old Yeller
Chinese academic 's comments on the dollar
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/020423/reuters/asia-101518.html
Doesn't mince words;giant Ponzi scheme,huge risk and world trade turning into a game where other countries exchange goods for evermore dollar commitments.

Sounds like a USAGOLD poster or reader.
Black Blade
Argentina to Reopen Banks, Float Peso
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020428/argentina_5.html

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina's new economy minister will allow banks to reopen and a battered currency to float on Monday, emphasizing his free-market and pro-IMF credentials and appeasing a cash-hungry public unable to access ATMs or use credit cards for nearly a week. "The economy has to be oxygenated," said Roberto Lavagna in an interview with leading newspaper Clarin on Sunday, a few days after his predecessor resigned amid a mounting financial crisis that forced the government to close banks for a week.

Pressure from some politicians on Duhalde to change course had been growing amid speculation he would be forced to call early elections after then-economy minister Jorge Remes Lenicov quit, failing to win support for a plan to help nearly broke banks by transforming deposits into bonds.

After pegging the peso to the dollar for a decade, the government hoped that a switch to a free-floating currency would boost competitiveness in Latin America's third largest economy by making it cheaper to do business and hire labor. But so far it has only led to near chaos as Argentines purchased the safe-haven U.S. dollar, weakening the peso by 70 percent and sparking inflation. With wages stagnant, Argentina's 36 million inhabitants took an effective wage cut as prices of basic goods from cooking oil to bread rose.

One in two Argentines live in poverty on a few dollars a day and the middle class -- once the strongest in Latin America -- has been impoverished, sparking street protests in December in which 27 people died amid supermarket looting. One TV program over the weekend, titled "Returning to the epoch of our parents and grandparents," showed how Argentines could no longer afford disposable diapers. The middle class was now forced to use old-style cotton diapers, and some slum dwellers were using garbage bags tied around their babies.


Black Blade: It is destined to get much worse. Only those lucky few Argentines who held Gold and the USD have survived with their wealth intact. Even so, if those USD were held in bank accounts it was stolen by the government and replaced with nearly worthless pesos. This scenario is likely to be played out around the world. Japan looks to be a prime candidate as the next April Fools Day Surprise will leave Japanese depositors vulnerable.

As always, get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Argentina is just the beginning.
Topaz
.....may be of interest
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Charts/GoldCurrency7.htmThe tireless Sharefin also produces these Gems showing Au in world currencies. The Prince of Currencies is now positive EVERYTHING!
Black Blade
US Dollar Index Dives
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD Index drops below 115. World currencies are rising against the US Dollar. Gold is holding flat since the Friday NY close. Oil drops slightly on Israeli-Palestinian agreement though Israeli forces are moving into other West Bank towns. NG is slightly higher. Meanwhile market indices are higher ahead of the NY open and may rally slightly after Fridays market losses. We should have a week of economic data and some earnings reports from stragglers that did not report last week (such as Proctor and Gamble). Could get "interesting" especially if the USD continues to weaken further.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
The Price of Gold Is Shining. Hedging of Gold Is Not.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/28/business/yourmoney/28PORT.html?ex=1020657600&en=ffab17332a27b772&ei=5006∂ner=ALTAVISTAThe Price of Gold Is Shining. Hedging of Gold Is Not.

Snippit:

The performance of Barrick Gold's stock shows that the sentiment of the gold market has swung sharply against hedging. Hedgers and anti-hedgers have been battling for years. Hedgers lock in the current price of gold, plus a premium, by borrowing gold, selling it and then investing the proceeds. They say this is good management and smart protection against a price decline. Anti-hedgers are more bullish on gold, saying hedging prevents a company from reaping the full benefit of a price rise. They talk much less about the downside risk. So far this year, the stock of Barrick Gold, the third-largest gold mining company and a leader of the hedging faction, is up 27.8 percent, as the price of gold has jumped 11.9 percent. Sounds great. But the Chicago Board Options Exchange index of eight gold mining companies is up 42.4 percent for the year, and Newmont Mining, the largest gold mining company and a leader of the anti-hedgers, is up 57.4 percent.

As the price of gold has risen � it hit $312.10 an ounce on Friday � the argument against hedging has become so persuasive that an anti-hedging reputation is what really counts these days when investors pick gold stocks. The move away from hedging is clear. Last year, the amount of gold hedged plunged by 147 tons, or 4.7 million ounces, after a modest 15-ton decline in 2000 and a 506-ton increase in 1999, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services.

The downturn helped start the rally in gold prices this year. Unwinding of hedges requires buying of gold, helping to push prices higher. That has led to less volatility in the market and allowed producers to think more about the upward potential for gold, making hedging even less attractive. In addition, the Gold Fields report said a decline in interest rates last year narrowed sharply the premium a company could earn by selling gold to hedge. By the end of last year, that premium was down to $2.47 an ounce from $15 an ounce in 2000. Randall Oliphant, president of Barrick, said the battle over hedging "is a bunch of nonsense." But it is not, because it is having an impact on his stock. His problem is that Newmont gets a bigger benefit because it has more unhedged gold to sell this year. A $25 climb in the price of gold this year, to $325 an ounce, would mean $71 million in added revenue for Barrick but would bring Newmont $156 million.


Black Blade: The day of the hedger is over. Those who hedge are suffering the consequences (or at least their shareholders are). The less hedging (forward sales), the better for the POG.
Black Blade
Euro Higher, Oil Recovers, ....
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The Euro jumps above 90 cents (US), Oil recovers above $27.00/bbl, Gold is flat though could rally on positive indicators, and the USD has come back to 115 (but still lower than Friday's close). A lot of telecoms and techs look weak in pre-market trading. Looks like it could get "interesting" today.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Euro Markets Awash In Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Euro markets are mostly negative ahead of the NY open. It appears that Euro markets are awaiting direction from the US markets - Monkey see, Monkey do.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold boom!
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BAA00317883?OpenDocument
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG � It was all about the dollar-gold price this morning as first Australian and then South African gold shares ran in early trade. Investors piled into gold shares as bullion broke through technical resistance levels of $310/oz to trade around the $311/oz mark for much of the morning, its strongest level since February 2000. Greg Hunter, gold analyst at Deutsche Bank in Johannesburg, said the fundamentals for gold continued to look positive. "This is really just phenomenal price action. Gold continues to move through technical resistance levels. We're seeing dollar weakness and the tensions in the Middle East aren't going away," said Hunter. He said a continued run in the dollar gold price made it increasingly likely that companies with substantial hedge positions like Newmont [NYSE:NEM] and Placer Dome [TOR:PDG], would adopt a more aggressive approach to pulling back their positions, thus adding to demand.

Black Blade: Indeed, it does look good for Gold these days. The USD is falling, energy prices are higher, the equities markets are ridden with scandals and legal problems, and the World looks more dangerous all the time. As they say on CNBC these days about Gold � "A flight to quality".
Leigh
Gold in the Headlines
The AT&T WorldNet headlines are saying this morning, "Wall Street Woes Infect Asia Stocks, Gold Glitters."

What great news to wake up to!!
R Powell
Recommended reading from GATA
http://www.fame.org/goldwars.htm Written by a Swiss banker. Has anyone read it yet?
Rich
Belgian
@ Old Yeller
As usual, you picked a very interesting article on Asia.
Please check the following simplified maths on Asian dollar foreign exchange reserves and their GOLD reserves.

Total dollar reserves for Asia = 1 trillion $
Total Gold reserves for Asia = 1.000 tonnes

By how much must POG (1.000 mt reserves) rise to compensate for a 30% decline in worth for the dollar reserves ?
Answer x 30 ! = 300$ x 30 = 900$ per ounce.

(same math for Euroland dollar and Gold-reserves). And why not add those 25.000 mt off private Gold + their accompagning dollar stashes.

Yes, I do agree we don't have the exact numbers on dollar and Gold reserves. And a dollar decline of 30% is a modest estimate. Post factum it will indeed be considered as very, very smart from the US-side to print, export en masse the highly valued confetti...to be erased / vaporized in value/purchasing power at the appropiate moment in a crashing blitzkrieg. Great play !
Is this the reason why Asian *Giants* have been accumulating the Physical in anticipation ? Must be !
Belgian
Mistake
300$ x 30 = 9.000 (nine thousand) $ per ounce !
Japan + China alone have 500 billion dollar-reserves and 1.000 metric tonnes of goldreserves worth 10 billion $ at 300$/ounce. For both countries the compensation would be 15(x) times actual POG = 300$ x 15 = 4.500$ per ounce.
After this has been done...Asia will compensate US trade losses with Euroland trade in strengthening euro (TG !).
sector
@Black Blade..The Japanese are at risk now...it just gets worse next April
$621 Billion in elderly Japanese Savings at RiskThe 60s and 70s group have $150,000 and $158,000 in net savings exclusive of realestate holdings according to official Japanese demographic data.

As you know, the government has reduced the insurance ceiling to just $85,000 this year and only $75,000 next April. Therefore half of the life savings of elderly Japanese citizens is NOW at loss risk in the event of a bank failure or more likely a bank "Nationalization" [Nationalization would not shield uninsured deposits].

With 50 bank failures last year we can be certain of a similar number this year...only these failures will produce real tears...from real Mrs. Watanabes. Those tears will spur other Japanese to protect their remaining assets from the avarice of government thieves.

Lats week the EBCs Wim Duisenburg said that Japan would have to use "Public funds" to rescue itself. Those "Public funds" no doubt are the life savings of elderly Japanese citizens.

The Japanese people will accelerate their purchases of gold.
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sourdough
Why not?
What`s to keep a central bank from loaning a 100 tonnes of gold out at 1%.When the gold is sold on the market the central bank buys it back on the sly.
The central bank now has it`s gold back in the vault at a cost of $280 (say).
The bank now has it`s gold back and a loan that requires payback in gold.
If the gold price sometime in the future is allowed to go to $560, the gold they loaned and bought back has doubled it`s value on the books. They are even, plus they are receiving their 1 %, plus they have the loan outstanding that must be payed back at $560 gold, "or" they can appraise how much the gold seller can be squeezed and still survive. Don`t worry about payback right away, just give me 15% interest and I will wait,perhaps sign over a lean on your assets.
"Now thatsa good business for you".
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted dates -- 1800's)
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

MS61 Graded Liberties

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be...

...Priceless.

Call Centennial for Arrangements or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115

GoldnSilver2002
In Gold's favour...Nature and history
Of course Sierra Madre,Gold may have some retracement but it wont be to 298 per oz.There are no simply too many factors in golds favour.Flaky Japanese banks,terrorism,record debt levels(public and private),rising oil prices,Argentina,Venezuala,Global warming,fed money printing(inflation),Gold suppression(the longer something is held down,the more radically it rebounds),middle east tensions,a shaky stock market,growing world population,china(opening a gold exchange),holes in the ozone layer,dieing fish and forests,enron,iraq,columbia,phillipines.JUst as rome found out its expensive being the worlds policeman and i could go on.What is my point?None of these things will go away and in time they will worsen putting more pressure on the world markets and blowing under gold ,the ultimate safe haven as it always has been throughout history.I know a lot of people would like to beleive these things happen all the time and will go away,but they wont!The snowball is rolling and gaining momentum,heaven forbid we should have a major earhtquake in california!No my friend,you cant fool nature and history is on golds side even if the american media isnt.Did you hear their latest recoomendation?Enron "buy and hold!" gold: "a barbaric relic".Yes it is and its survived all the attempts of man to control it,time after time after time.The cabal is scared and retreating while still hoping to hide gold from the u.s public,the problem is other countries do matter and the u.s isnt the center of the universe...even rome shall pass!
Henri
GATA reco
ordered the Lips book today...looking forward to reading it.
Jimbo
What's the downside
This is my first post and I'd appreciate some feedback. I've been investing in gold stocks and funds for two months and have seen good results. But my financial advisor, buddies and family think I'm nuts. They warn me that gold is "too volatile" and predict I'll lose my shirt. My advisor reminds me frequently about gold's precipitous drop in 1980. Of course, he pointed out that gold had a big drop today and warned me that when the economy turns around, "gold's value will diminish quickly." I think I've made a smart investment in gold. But my advisor's gloomy picture makes me wonder. Can someone provide valid arguments that will help me defend my position? Thanks.
Black Blade
Re: Jimbo

Why don't you ask your investment advisor how much he's made in the market over the last couple of years? Then ask him: When will the economy turn around? If he answers that he has lost money since the market pulled back and he doesn't know when the economy will improve, then tell him to find another career as he isn't much good at his present one. The point to remember is that Gold is an insurance policy exactly for when there is economic uncertainty. People buy insurance for their homes, their lives, their autos, their health, etc. � so why not insurance for your economic health and for diversification? I have absolutely no sympathy for those "Grasshoppers" who end up like the Argentines if they take no personal responsibility for themselves and their families well being. Living on a hope and a prayer that all will be well forever - that's just being irresponsible.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Re: Jimbo - One More Thing

BTW, What "Big Drop" today? I see that the POG is off by 60 cents. Also, Gold has not precipitously dropped since 1980. The POG has dropped sharply in 1996 due the a combination of the Gold Carry Trade, the loose monetary policy adopted by the Fed, Gold Hedging, and the Bre-X scam. It is true that Gold spiked to $850/oz. Due to a combination of runaway inflation, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and the overthrow of the Shah of Iran (a friend to the West and a major supplier of oil). That was a one time effect where Gold performed just as is should have in an economic crisis. After these crises reversed, the POG settled into a range of $380 to $420 an ounce until late 1996. The Gold Bear Market since 1980 is a fallacy that is perpetuated by Keynesian (or even John Law) economists. Notice that today even on CNBC they refer to Gold as a "flight to quality". Cheers!

- Black Blade
Graefin
Jimbo...
What goes up must also come down...no matter what you invest in. But look at where the world economy is. Uncertainty with war, oil, accounting practices (which all of us know is called "creative accounting" and everyone does it)...then look at the floating market the "ever clever American" has created for himself. No longer pegged to gold or silver, all other currencies are pegged to the dollar. How convenient.
Throughout world history, this is the only era where gold was not the standard to which a currency was pegged. And what happens when the economies of the world go to h*** in a handbasket? Is Argentina a fair example??

If it smells like a goat and it looks like a goat, why are you surprised when it acts like a goat??
Peace!
- Gr�fin
R Powell
Jimbo
I'll bet your financial advisor reads either the Wall Street Journal or the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) every day. Ask him to look at the "leading sector" section of the IBD. Most stocks are grouped into different sectors, retail stocks, drugs, financial, manufacturing, entertainment, etc. Precious metals mining is one of these sectors which are listed daily. Check out the year-to-date numbers and perhaps last year's numbers.
There are a few other reasons why gold, silver and mining stocks might prove to be profitable investments. I'd suggest that some of these may be found here in the daily reports and the archives.
Our host also publishes quarterly "News and Views" information. It can be accessed here and is just what you're looking for. Have fun.
Rich
P.S. I don't want to seem pompous but I'd suggest that you ask your advisor for his reasons why precious metals and their producers are not worthy holdings. Please give us his specific reasons and perhaps we can give you specific referenced articles to print out and return to him. Hopefully, you'll study them first. It's your money, no? If it were mine, I'd want to learn all I could about where it is invested. Will you be surprised if, after some diligient study, your knowledge dwarfs that of your advisor?? He/she won't like or encourage that. It ought to be fun!
Black Blade
Bad Day On Wall Street

I see that oil is up 46 cents to $27.57/bbl and NatGas is up 19 cents to $3.56 Mbtu. This has to take a toll on the US economy. Also note that the market indices are falling off again. Last week the DOW dropped about 350 points. So far today the DOW is off nearly 90 points, the NASDAQ is off 12 points and the S&P 500 is off 11 nearly points. This sickly economy is destined to get mush worse. I see that the Wall Street Pimps are all smiles and touting that all is well and that the economy is improving � HUH? Truly the blind leading the blind.

- Black Blade
TownCrier
Jimbo -- a good opportunity to get acquainted
http://www.usagold.com/sitemap.htmlWelcome to the forum. Cutting to the chase, to help you get a more balanced view of things you might simply want to pick up the phone and discuss these important investment matters with MK (Mike Kosares) or George Cooper at Centennial headquarters. Toll Free (800) 869-5115. This is what they do for a living, and MK's been giving good advice in this business for 30 years. Again, the emphasis here is to get a **balanced** perspective -- you've already gotten an earful from your advisor who sounds like he comes to the table loaded with the investment sector's traditional "new era" anti-gold biases.

In the interests of developing a well-structured portfolio, you (and everybody else, for that matter) owe it to yourself to learn more about the big picture as it includes gold.

A phone call can be quick and easy, but you can also learn a lot through the many bright posters here and from many of the pages within this USAGOLD website. I would like to draw your attention to MK's difinitive book, 'The ABCs of Gold Investing', to the posts in our 'Hall of Fame', and also the wealth of solid commentary in our 'Gilded Opinion' section. Links to these and others can all be found near the top of this discussion forum page. Best wishes!

R.
Sierra Madre
GoldnSilver 2002
OK, OK, OK already!

You win, I'm sure you're right, gold's goin' to da mooooon!

But, don't get upset if it doesn't. It has a habit of "letting us down" and that is what the manipulators are counting on, to discourage the whole world from buying the yellow metal. Their fight is NOT over. Expect setbacks.

The trend is our friend and the trend is UP. But there may (will) be bumps along the road.

Sierra

R Powell
Black Blade
Did I hear you mention Wall Street Pimps?
One of the better known made a year end prediction of Dow 11,300 and S+P 1300 today on the peoples stock picking television channel. Yep, the one and only Abbey-Joe!
She was Louie's first guest analyst on his re-located Friday night special.
Rich
canamami
Saudi-Iranian (oil) alliance
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-sieff042602.aspApril 26, 2002, 8:45 a.m.
The Saudi-Iranian Alliance
United by oil.

By Martin Sieff



Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals whose traditional approach to the Israel-Palestinian conflict has been diametrically opposite. But now they are moving closer together on that and other issues, with probable immense consequences for the United States and the entire world.

TownCrier
Snapshot of markets as Wall Street was wrapping up today's trading...
http://www.usagold.com/mkpics/forum/ino29apr02.gif(click link to quotes)

As you'll see from this snapshot of the INO graphic taken about 10 minuts ago, only gold was up.

The dollar was down, bonds were down, S&P 500 was down, Nasdaq was down, and even the CRB(!!!) was down.

More of this general breakaway (of gold from everything, including other commodities) can be expected "if"/when indeed the freemarket gold scenario comes about fully-fledged as several here have foretold. The nice consequence of such a thing is the pleasant effect that your gold-as-insurance plays a double role -- also providing handsome capital gains.

Of course, if you never bring yourself to own the stuff, these particular benefits of security and gains will not be yours to enjoy. The initiative remains yours to take, although there are people who will help along the way. Give them a call.

R.
Boilermaker
Abbey Joe
"Madame" Abby used to run a first rate whorehouse. Her "stock" is getting old and tired but she's still pushing the same "ladies". Pretty soon the "Johns" will put their money in the beauty of the ages.
Pizz
Jimbo

Here's a few questions to put to your skeptics (it's what I do and it works):

"What is there more of in the world? Dollars or Gold?"

"What's increasing faster, new dollar supply or new mine supply of gold.?"

"What's easier to do? Print money or mine gold?"

"Is there a paper shortage anywhere that I have not been made aware of?" (I usually smile when I ask this one.)

Now, long term, just how can the dollar price of gold go anywhere but UP?

Stick to you're plan, your on the right track.

Pizz


TownCrier
Updated weekly gold commentary from WGC Rhonna O'Connell
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlExcerpts:
...Dubai is launching an initiative to develop its market share in the trading of gold, diamonds and other key commodities. The expressed intention is to try to lift its gold trading market share from the current locally estimated 10% of total, to 50%. To this end, His Highness General Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and Defence Minister of the UAE, yesterday announced the establishment of the Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC).

...The People's Bank of China has today [April 26] implemented an unscheduled gold fixing, raising the price by two yuan per gram, or 1.48%.

...Japan's imports of gold in March were almost six times higher than in March 2001, at 13.18 tonnes. WGC estimates that investor demand in the quarter reached 47.5t, the highest since the second quarter of 1995, which followed the Kobe earthquake and the terrorist attack on Tokyo. Imports for the quarter reached 77.1t, a gain of 15% over the previous year.
------(click URL for more, including year-to-date gold graph in dollars, yen, and euro)------

Speaking of Japan, despite the Japanese trading holiday today, gold prices held up quite well even after last week's move toward higher ground. Strong legs...

R.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
Jimbo: the Indians only shoot arrows at those who stand outside the fort.
You already answered your main question, What is the downside risk? People are nearly brainwashed from their exposure to old "set modes of thinking" types. The herd always ends up running over the cliff.

Our first ancestors learned this ........."lets start a stampede.......we'll guide the herd through a certain valley that opens up to a steep cliff.......then when the animals are slaughtered by their own stupidity, we'll go down and have a feast. And the great thing is that WE don't get hurt."

Financially this is exactly what the media trolls are, they are the sticks that guide the herd to the slaughter. Your first victory was to begin thinking for yourself. The cost of being a maverick is ridicule and rejection. "To gain acceptance with us, you must agree with the investments we made in beatup paper stocks with lying accountants." "If you won't agree with us we cannot be your friend because your presence in the room says we are all idiots."

This is what you face, the wrath of the paper-pushers or the eventual destruction of your portfolio. Do you want to retire with a bicycle and a bag of groceries? So keep up the fight for the truth in your mind. The devil is always trying to steal truth out of our lives by talking through liars who seem to have their act together, but they only have short range thinking.

Gold is honest money. Who funded the honeymoon of Mary and Joseph? And with what? The wise men brought GOLD. The wise men still keep gold. Vietnamese refugees who had no gold are still over there. The ones who had gold, used it to buy their way to freedom. Ask a Vietnamese man over 50 of how they got out. Ask some Chinese people over 60 how they escaped to Taiwan, with what. Ask yourself what is more valuable than gold, and you may find out why those people were willing to part with their gold. With a pair of scissors they cut a thin strip off the edge of a tael sheet of gold used to pay off border guards.

Close your mind to the voice of the insane, those who have rejected ancient truth to wallow in the mire of self chosen derision. Because they have rejected truth they cannot recieve wisdom. Fools despise wisdom and instruction. They say "WE KNOW" so they can no longer learn. Good day in GOLD -GR2
TownCrier
Fighting for the dollar tooth and nail now...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020429/economy_treasury_forex_1.htmlI remember when I first heard SecTreas O'Neill mention this a year ago. I didn't laugh then, but I'm laughing now...in the context of the dollar's war on the euro and the rest of the currency world.

Derivatives. You gotta luv 'em!!

Here's the plum from the article linked above:

HEADLINE: O'Neill won't sing new forex tune at hearing
------O'Neill has said in the past that companies can use tactics to hedge against changes in currency values ......... O'Neill is slated to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on [...] foreign exchange and international economic policies. Also at the meeting will be representatives of U.S. manufacturers, who argue that the dollar is overvalued on foreign exchange markets and is hurting their ability to compete overseas.-----------

Now, I probably don't need to tell anyone this, but what the SecTreas is in effect telling American corporations to do is, in layman's terms, to short sell on (an ever continuing and increasing basis(??)) the national currencies of their target export destinations. Then, the American companies are to use the profits from this derivative activity in order to subsidize the export selling of American-made goods at prices specially slashed below the natural profit margin given the relative high cost of production.

Taking the long view of this:

Hey Belgian, ol' buddy. I guess this means that we'd be able to buy the very same GoodYear tires that were manufactured in my hometown more cheaply (with $s) in your euroland neighborhood than I'd be able to buy them here in my own backyard.

Seemingly, all of this "Government-blessed" shorting activity by our companies against your euro will just add more pressure to spiral the problem of "strong dollars"... but never fear! We'll just have our exporting companies increase their forex derivative/hedging activity, and they'll all be more than compensated with forex profits to underwrite their ever-cheaper export prices as necessary. In fact, with all of these forex profits, why bother with the dirty business of manufacturing and exporting at all?!

Perhaps in the course of time we'll just buy everything that you make, and, in place of exports (to maintain some semblence of trade legitimacy), we'd sell some of it back to you. And in this way, we could do it without the overseas shipping costs incurred under the old business model. See? We're saving you money already! The strong dollar can be good for everyone!

Sigh. The pathos...

R.
timbervision
Jimbo
Jimbo, you said that you had bought gold funds and stocks. The ultimate safety, and potential for meaningful gain will be in physical gold. Funds and stocks are mostly paper gold and will not share in the rise of value of physical gold when the "proverbial something hits the whatever." (SHTF)
YGM
First Japanese Banks, Then China's Banks....EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT
http://www.newaus.com.au/aatemp336taipei.html--AND WITH OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD ABOVE AND BEYOND THE NEWLY FORMING CHINESE GOLD MARKETS------YGM.

Excerpt--

The economic rot, though, is much wider. The mainland banking system is crisis-ridden and corrupt. In an open political system, it would in all probability have collapsed by now, considering that half to two-thirds of all bank loans are nonperforming and growing.

High-level linkages between the perpetrators of such fraud, however, result in disinterested investigations. According to the Far Eastern Economic Review, "China Construction Bank has been involved in financing the information-technology business activities of President Jiang Zemin's eldest son." Still, banks like these control US$900 billion in individual savings. If people knew what was going on, there would be an instant run on the banks, which would bring the Chinese economy to a halt.

--More @ Link--
R Powell
CoBra(too) // Gold Wars
I finished your friend's "Silver Bulls" over this part weekend. It is excellent. I'm now thinking that, once again, the accepted historical view of the whole 1979-1980 silver bull market is that version promoted by the shorts and market regulators who cried wolf and convinced themselves that there really was a wolf at the door. Losers don't write the history. If silver went to $50/ounce, 22 years ago without any real squeeze or overwhelming (or even unusual) call for delivery at all, what are the dollar limits this time? How little is left compared to the larger supply of that day!?
GATA has recommended another book called "Gold Wars" by a retired banker named Ferdinand Lips who resides near Zurich. I gave a link to this earlier (74535). I thought perhaps you might be familar with the book and/or author?
Has anyone read this one yet?
Thoughts?
Thanks, Rich
Canuck
@ Jimbo
Very simple my man; supply and demand.

As the price of a product lowers to meet it's 'all-in-costs' to produce, the weak producers disappear thus decreasing supply.

As supply-demand balances distort, prices increase to reach equilibrium.

If it costs a dollar to make, market and distribute a hamburger you won't find anyone out there selling it for less (at least for long).

The 'gold-game' can be won on the supply side and/or the demand side. After years of the 'all-in-costs' of some $275-350 the supply numbers are in our favour (ie: mine closure). With the smouldering paper-fire (ie: negative ROI), demand is also in our favour.


The gold game will begin and end with fundamental supply-demand statistics. The paper game is a mirage.

The following is somewhat speculative:

The bonus in all of this will be the
a)evitable scramble to cover short positions as the EXIT door begins to close
b)the mountain of 'cash' and equivalents that are waiting for the next run.

The entire market cap of all gold companies in the world is less than McDonalds. The 'cash' holders are pleading for the next momentum run. Raise the POG to $400 and double all gold stocks and THEY WILL COME, in hoards. I envision 4 digit gold and ten-bagger stocks moments after 'they come'.

This will not be a linear run-up. When TSHTF, passing thru 360/380/400 will be blinding. As paper ignites from the decade long smoldering it will go fast.

Check out the Saudi-Iran post today supplied by cananami. Remember the Arab summit a few weeks ago, "an attack of one Arab state will be viewed as an attack of all". These guys are pissed, large. The vacuuming up of bodies in Israel is not going over well. The Headlines boast of "Israeli-Palestine deal cut". Oil went up half a dollar in this joyous celebration. Israel won't let anyone into Jenin, I wonder why? And they are really pleased that Powell showed up late to the party. Did you see Arafat glaring at Powell in that one clip?

A couple more grand deals like the latest and we will see $30/bbl.

I have hedged some of my money into oil. The escalating war front warrants some money into oil, yes? The hedge is in case the economy bounces back. So the only bad news for oil is no war and no bounce; the hedge in that is the USD will fall off a cliff and we know the answer for that, yes!

Ya see Jimbo, the world has gone to hell in a handbasket. The paper world is unravelling quicker than a cheap suit. I leave you with a final thought. With the masses piled into short rates how are they going to squeeze out any sort of profit with rising interest rates? This is the theory of likes like Noland and Puplava. So if the US cannot raise rates anytime soon where are people going to plant their money? Did you notice the 6% beating the consumer sub-index took today? The proverbial "watch what the market is doing, not what they are saying" is the order of the day. The USD is on very shaky ground.

The debt-trap is set, damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Not investment advice, just the subjective ramblings of a guy in the same boots as you.
White Hills
Canuck
One good reason that Israel has for being reluctant to let the UN IN TO
JENIN IS THE MAKE UP OF THE PEOPLE THAT WILL DO THE INVESTIGATION. I am sure they are worried that they will have trumped up charges and even try to pull a SERBIA on them and charge Sharon with WAR CRIMES. It Worked before. The UN is not a friend to Israel. White Hills
sourdough
Where will the money go? With this type of editorial not to the U.S.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/April 30, 2002
EDITORIAL
Danger signs for US dollar



THE US dollar is widely perceived to be overvalued, its vulnerability highlighted not only by a sudden decline against the euro and the yen but also by gold's recent rise by more than 10 per cent in dollar terms.


This is being attributed to the size of the US current account deficit, and to fears that recovery by the world's largest economy from a shallow recession may prove to be equally shallow. But there are more fundamental reasons for fearing a dollar debacle.





It is bad enough that the US should run a huge external deficit - meaning that it is critically dependent upon the outside world to finance its excess private consumption; but when the government budget also plunges into deficit and Washington embarks upon military spending that seems likely to push America's twin deficits to intolerable levels, then it becomes cause for real alarm.

What is worse, this strategy threatens to undermine that very stability in oil prices which has underpinned US prosperity for nearly two decades. A sustained hike in oil prices - made even more likely since Washington has antagonised Middle East producers by its policies towards Israel - also threatens the global economy.

If the US has appeared invulnerable on a military level, its soft underbelly is being exposed now by developments in the foreign exchange market and in the oil market. Both the IMF and the OECD have issued unusually explicit warnings about the dangers of a 'disorderly' correction in the record US current account deficit, but US officials have been inclined to dismiss these.

It is doubtful, however, whether they can afford to ignore the danger signals flashing in financial markets. The dollar has long been viewed as a safe haven - safer than gold even - because the US economy was previously perceived to have entered a virtuous circle of rising productivity and expanding economic growth. Good fiscal management under the Clinton administration produced a substantial budget surplus and added to the justification for a strong dollar. If the US ran a large external deficit, this was simply because the outside world was willing to finance it by investing eagerly in Treasury bonds and on Wall Street. How different things look now.

The US current account deficit is expected to rise above 4 per cent of GDP in 2002 (to US$470 billion) and to reach 5per cent next year. Such a position cannot be sustained for long, even by a country that's able to print money and have it universally accepted as the world's principal reserve currency. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated a deficit of US$46 billion in fiscal 2002 but tax receipts are already running US$40 billion below projections, and this could push the projected deficit even higher. Congress is also considering a US$27 billion supplemental spending bill; though only part of it would be spent in this fiscal year, the overall deficit could rise above US$100 billion - compared with a US$127 billion surplus in fiscal 2001.

Slower spending

The US depends upon foreign investors to fund its twin deficits; but the risk of the deficits going unfunded is rising. At the very least, the US might be forced to raise interest rates in order to continue attracting investments. The fact that the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.8 per cent in the first quarter is little cause for comfort since that growth was against a very depressed fourth quarter of 2001. Consumer confidence and spending have slowed and expectations of a robust recovery in corporate profits have waned.

This raises the prospect of a retreat from US equities just when the government bond market is also vulnerable. A government which apparently believes it can go it alone on military issues may be given a salutary warning of its dependence upon its allies to finance that strategy.
SINGAPORE Business Times


turkey hunter
@ R Powell Gold Wars
Hello. Looks like the book "Gold Wars" was released in February 2002. I went over to Amazon.com to see if anyone has reviewed it. So far no one has. It also must be the first book by the author; no other books were listed by him. Someone is waiting to buy a used one is that you? :) I went over to Amazon.com UK and still no one has reviewed it but someone did have a used one to sell.

Blacklade: That Negra Modelo is good stuff. Finally found some to try.
Trurl
WOW! Thank you CPM!
I was a recent contest winner of "the other white metal".

I was very pleasantly suprised to have received this today. In over two decades, this is the fastest I've ever got PMs in the mail; and I didn't have to pay for it.

Also, Thanks and complements to MK and Jill: I can see they know how to correctly package things. Unlike some horror stories I have from, err, other places.

Since I'm on a roll, I suggest we have a posting handle contest. *That* is a contest I could win the gold in!

What, you've never heard of Trurl?
Sierra Madre
White HIlls....
You say that "the U.N. is not a friend to Israel."

Pray tell, why should they be?

Except for most Jews, very, very few people love Israel. That's a fact. Sharon has given Dubya "the finger" or didn't you notice?

The Jews are always complaining about persecution, but when you see how they are behaving in Palestine, it makes you wonder how it could be otherwise. The Jews have knack for instigating persecution against themselves. Thousands upon thousands of others have said this, before me. Is there going to be a Palestinian Holocaust Museum funded with U.S. taxpayer money? Not bloody likely!

This latest Zionist adventure is likely to devolve into World War III, and it won't be pretty. We have forgotten what war looks like - on one's OWN SOIL. Plenty of T.V. and videos about mayhem of war, on OTHER PEOPLE'S LAND.

As BB says, stock up on gold, silver, food, water, etc.

Big, big events are around the corner for May, I suspect.

Sierra
Black Blade
Book Recommendations

Since we have brought up the subject of books, I might mention that MK's book the "ABC's of Gold Investing" as a start. We now also have recommendations for "Silver Bulls", "Gold Wars", I would add "Hubbert's Peak", and one that is out of print that I think Randy mentioned once "Green Monday".

Turkey hunter: Indeed. I am consuming some delightful nectar of the Gods (Negra Modelo) right now.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Jimbo � Gold Investments


You just have to invest in what makes you comfortable. Two of the mining shares that you mentioned (GG and GOLD) are probably among the best as they are unhedged and exposed to the POG. I also have HGMCY for the same reasons. However, as far as percentages are concerned one must determine what they think is likely to occur based on available evidence. Right now, the world of investing does not look very good. I just saw David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund on CNN Money Line. He mentioned that the stock markets have a long way to go to correct. Valuations are extremely high. He also mentioned that it could take another 3 to 5 years before this "correction" is over. I agree and have been hitting this for some time.

I was in Techs/Telecoms/dot.bombs for some time and then I began to bail out in early 2000 as the valuations and talk of "new economies" and "new paradigms" did not match with reality. I switched into energy (actually I started to build up energy in 1998). Through it all I added both cheap Gold mining shares and Physical Gold. I was fortunate to be able to buy Gold at spot with my inside track (I bought many ounces of physical Gold and Silver safety and attendance awards from Nevada miners). I also bought many Gold maple leafs and 10 oz. Silver JM bars as well. Hell, I even bought some Uruguay 5 peso pieces from the castle treasury. My position in Gold alones (both physical and mining shares) is about 40% of my portfolio. Actually I have more physical (about 30%). That is mostly due to rising POG and declining shares in my other investments (other than energy).

It comes down to where you feel comfortable. I see that the world has become ever more unstable and most other investments have very little potential now. My physical precious metals are my anchor to the "real world" hard assets (portfolio insurance), my Gold shares are my counter-cyclical investments, my energy shares are mostly current income and based on the ever present need for energy regardless of what happens, and my other investments are � well in the toilet. I think that the mistake many make is that they feel that Gold and Silver will be their road to great wealth (and perhaps so), but I prefer to think of my Precious Metals as insurance and as a wealth preservation vehicle, and they can be passed along to heirs tax-free (if you get my drift). Anyway, I have always thought of keeping a store physical first as you would have the ultimate insurance and then later adding shares for the speculative nature of investing. Either way you decide to go, happy investing and good luck. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Sorry about all the rambling (it's the Negra Modelo).
Horatio
Iraq
It woulden't surprise me to see Saddam GOADED into making another "make my day" mistake.
The last time U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie told him ,we would view an invasion of Kewait as "an Arab problem".Yeah right!!This could be followed by a U.S. invasion and takeover of his oil fields.
We then could drop oil prices and flood the market with oil to everyones benefit including Iraq people.
The British are currently setting up a Government in Exile in Britan.This plan could be seen as the way to recover from the coming crash in equities and the Dollar.I expect the crash in Aug-Sept time frame.
Is he smart enough to avoid the mistake he made last time ?We'll see!!!!
Solomon Weaver
Jimbo - That which cannot be taken away.
Jimbo

You asked about being safe....with how much paper gold....If it is of any interest to you.....about 85% of this poor old philosophers paper IRA assets are in two companies....one gold and one silver. About 2% in a little satellite company and the rest in cash (which means money markets). It is a very dangerous portfolio since it responds wildly to the PM markets...ie..nice as of late...but I saw worse times.

. . . . . . . .

There is an old song that I know Frank Sinatra sings and I like the modern version by Diana Krall....."the way you wear your hair, the way you sing off key.....etc. oh they can't take that away from me".....the song is a study in how the personal impression of the object of your love cannot be removed from your heart and the memory cannot be devalued.

Pardon me for speaking for "most" on this forum...but I believe that one important thing that all of the regulars here share is that an ounce of gold or silver, struck in the image of a coin, or perhaps a few ounces in a bullion bar can be put carefully in a safe place and will not change in response to "political or economic events"....just like the way your love of old used to smile...the metal is unchanged.

One common misperception is that the futures contracts for June Gold somehow influence the "value" of that gold coin in your drawer. To feel "safe" in a gold investment, you must nurture the part of your mind and heart that understand what you have in your drawer is an ounce of gold and the value of that gold is "the value of an ounce of gold"...secondarily, that goldounce may have a certain dollar value on a certain day. If you feel "safe" in this thought, then you will feel safe in physical. You have been trained to measure value in dollars...you have not been trained to measure value in gold ounces, if you were, you would understand how fortunate you are to have the opportunity to earn you wage in the strong dollar and be able to spend little of those dollars to have a gold coin, and you might ponder that such a condition is temporary.

If you have not taken the time to read the postings on the Gold Trail......please do....because FOA weaves together a view which is practical and historical.

Poor old Solomon

PH in LA
The Middle East: Making the hard choices!
http://www.larouchepub.com/pr_lar/2002/020414clinton_mistake.htmlDubya probably thinks he has put to rest the spectacle he made of himself (running to the supreme court to have the vote counting stopped in Florida) by throwing rocks at Afghanistan and making himself look "presidential". Unfortunately, he still has to confront reality and act like a president. But then, whoever said being president was going to be as easy as becoming president?


LaRouche Tells Bush: Do Not Repeat Bill Clinton's Mistake!

President Bush has but one problem which he must face personally, if he is going to escape successfully from the "lame duck" trap being set for him currently by both the Lieberman- Brzezinski cabal, which is doing just that intentionally, and also the manifest majority among his relevant current advisors, who are doing it out of stupidity.

He must dump every consideration but standing before a mirror, to ask himself, "Forget the election-campaign. Do what neither Senator Lieberman or Al Gore would be capable of doing: Think like the kind of President our Constitution implies." Remember President Eisenhower and the Suez Crisis. It would help the President to see his available pathway more clearly, if he would tell Ari Fleischer to dump the current White House line on Bill Clinton's performance.

Clinton expressed excellent intentions, but he failed on four leading counts, four counts on which he acted more like a sponsor and lawyer for Ehud Barak's career, than as the President of the U.S.A. First, he entangled himself in Barak's career publicly. Second, when Barak set the President up as a patsy, Clinton swallowed it. To this he added two fatal mistakes which helped to make Ariel Sharon's currently ongoing, Nazi-Warsaw-Ghetto-like operations against the Palestinians possible. First, he evaded the fact that no peace between Israel and Palestine would ever become possible, without a major economic-development program based upon massive desalination and related water development programs. Second, when Chairman Arafat had been ready to sign on the dotted line, so to speak, the President publicly blamed Arafat, rather than Barak, for blowing up the Camp David negotiations, by bringing the issue of redistributing Middle East religious sites, such as Holy Mountain, thus creating the circumstances under which Sharon unleashed the present campaign of religious warfare and radical-right-wing Likud ethnic cleansing policies, into the situation.

Clinton's biggest blunder of all, was his fatal error of allowing himself to be put in the position of presiding over a negotiation over Middle East religious sites, thus helping Sharon set the stage for unleashing a form of religious warfare in the Middle East which threatens to enflame most of the world. No inaugurated President of the U.S.A. should ever permit any political or personal pressures to cause him to forget the unique meaning of the words "President of the U.S.A." among the governments of the world.

President Eisenhower typifies the quality of President who made a decision of that quality in the matter of the Suez Crisis. A President must put his political career at total risk, if need be, if he must take that risk by making a Presidential, rather than a partisan political or career decision, in any moment in which the nature of the constitutional office of President is a stake. Such a moment, such a decision, hovers before President Bush right now.

Our Federal constitutional government is historically unique among the nations of the world. In spite of the several existential crises which our system of self-government has suffered, such as that of 1932-1933, it has never been necessary to disturb the principles of our Constitution, especially as this pertains to our Executive Branch, with its implicit constitutional personal powers and responsibilities of the President. The assurance that this will continue to be the case, depends upon the degree to which the incumbent President, as a person, is able to recognize that it is to that Constitution and its implications, that he must be faithful, above all other possibly conflicting considerations.

The President who can say "No. Do not push me to cross this line," even when virtually all his advisors and constituents are pushing him, is a true President, whenever that decision is based on Constitutional considerations inherent in that office.

The present Middle East crisis is such a point of decision, one of several most crucial such tests which are now piling up to confront the recently inaugurated President. The United States' most vital strategic and related interests, including the interests of our European partners, requires an immediate historic intervention establishing a just peace in the Middle East, meaning an immediate establishment of the Palestinian State under its currently elected head of government, Arafat. If President Bush makes that decision right now, it will happen, since the President's decision as President will set into motion the other forces, around the world, which would produce that result. Indeed, all things considered, the fate of the planet as a whole could depend upon just such a decision.

Admittedly, it has been a long time, perhaps since President Johnson on civil rights, that a U.S. President has acted in a crisis as a true President in the sense of our Constitution. It is time for President Bush to close and bar the doors, while he takes on one or two crucial decisions, working with a handful of the coolest heads from among those around him who are capable of thinking about Presidential crises in a Presidential, rather than partisan way.

I think that most Americans would rejoice to think that that is what is about to happen at the White House about now.

As for the rest of you, remember this. The office of President of the U.S.A. is the most crucial among our Constitutional institutions. You, as a citizen, must never lose sight of that fact. Whoever happens to be President, the Presidency as an institution must be protected, even against its own tendency for folly.
tedw
Spot

A Friend of mine sold some Kruggerands today, 30 or so.
2 of the major dealers in this area are not paying even spot, saying they think this rally is not sustainable. He eventually sold for $302 today.
darkhorse
tedw
You can tell your friend he's an idiot! Let's say gold has been at $310/oz for the past five years, and it's expected to stay there for the next five...why would/should he take less than what the current market value is. This obviously doesn't even get into the BS the dealers were putting out.
jinx44
Jew Bashers, et al.
Whether most here like it or not, Israel is much more an ally than the Muslim nations. Our/my European heritage was formed upon the same theological precepts that Israel is founded upon. The Constitution and Bill of Rights are a secular legal paraphrase of the Laws of The Lord from the Books of Moses. Recent jewish history (last 1000 years) is European history, American history. As a Christian, I pray to the same God, the only God, of the Jews. Muslims, on the other hand, are pagan nations that still practice child and human sacrifice like they did 3000 years ago. They just do it with high explosives these days. Their religion is like marxism, it seeks to overthrow the world by violent death or conversion to their false way. Do you want to give aid and succor to a religion that abuses women and children and chops off heads and hands for preaching God's Word?? Not I, sir. Genesis 16 will explain about the arab nations and their role in the world.

Regarding Jenin, the jihaddis were running an armed camp in Jenin. The IDF went in to neutralize the terrorists controlling the camp. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the jihaddis didn't kill a lot of their own people. After all, they like it when their women and children die for their cause. They revel in making martyrs of the very widows and children that our nation would protect. How sick, twisted and pagan is that?? The media falls for it every time.

We western Christians abhor that flagrant disrespect for life. If you are not a Christian (born again by His blood), then this will, predictably, sound like foolishness. Tough luck for you if you don't fear the Lord.

The muslim nations are not our friends, they do not share our values and heritage, they want the west to crumble under their boot. If you think for a minute that they are tolerant and loving, you have been duped.

All nations stray and do wrong, as do their citizens. Israel is the only friend worthy of our help in that whole region, in spite of our political differences. The UN is a corrupt marxist body that feeds on class and religious warfare for power. We are wandering right into their hands if we legitimize ANYTHING they do.

'Nuff said. 1Cor2:2
Black Blade
US oil and gas industry entering long-term recovery
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142271

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Apr. 29 -- Natural gas prices in the US will recover sharply this year. Next year promises to be a very good year for the number of drilling rigs working and for the use of coiled tubing services. Oil and gas supply and demand fundamentals in 2003 should yield replacement-cost pricing for rigs. These are all early signs of a long-term recovery beginning for the oil and gas industry. That was the message delivered by J. Marshall Adkins, managing director of energy research and senior oil field service equity analyst for Raymond James & Associates Inc. (RJA), St. Petersburg, Fla., at the Society of Petroleum Engineers and International Coiled Tubing Association's coiled-tubing conference last week and earlier in the month at IADC's (International Association of Drilling Contractors) 2002 Land Contractors Day in Houston. Adkins said, "The past 8 weeks have seen a huge change in the fundamentals for oil and gas." Referring to natural gas, Adkins said, "The weather has cleaned up the storage overhang that we were worried about a few months ago."

He also noted that production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have shown up in the markets, causing inventories to fall dramatically and thus fundamentally supporting higher oil prices. Adkins reported that the oil and gas industry, beginning in 1995-96, has entered a secular upward trend that should last for 10-15 years. He said the outlook is very bullish. "We're still going to have cycles within the secular move, but the upward trend is still very much there," he said.

He makes the point, however, that the industry's current situation is closely related to its position in the early 1970s. During 1972-74, the oil field service stock index behaved almost exactly as it has from 1999 through today. The trends are similar. The sharp oil price increase of the 1970s triggered an economic recession, which is the same that happened in 1999 when oil, natural gas, and electricity prices increased sharply at the same time.

Adkins said, "Energy has a much greater effect on the economy than people think." For the entire 1970s, oil industry stocks did extremely well at the expense of the rest of the economy. He thinks the same trend might occur over the next 10 years. He predicted that within the next 5 years, there would be a substantial increase in the rig census, like what the industry saw in the late 1970s.

In Adkins's view, enhanced technology will yield higher exploration and development success rates. New technologies, notably advances in horizontal and directional drilling, have gained a substantial share of the market. In addition, improved technology has allowed the industry to open access to new areas, such as deep water. Adkins said, however, all of this has had a tangible impact on finding oil and gas, but on the other hand, average well depth has increased 40% in the past 20 years, making the wells more expensive to drill.

Considering the sharp rate of decline in field size for new discoveries, Adkins said, most people don't realize the commodity is finite. Putting more rigs to work doesn't necessarily mean industry is going to add a lot of production. In the 1970s, the industry tripled the number of rigs drilling for oil, but production still declined by 35%. Because natural gas depletes faster than oil, even steeper declines will occur for natural gas, according to Adkins. Adkins said, "I don't think there are enough rigs out there that we can throw at this problem to meaningfully change the declines that we're seeing in natural gas production right now."

Canada supplied the US with a lot of gas production in mid-2001, which was a function of the drilling they did in the winter of 2000-2001. Adkins said he didn't think that Canada would provide the boost that it had during the past year. Adkins said it is amazing that gas prices are at $3.50/Mcf today, after the warmest winter on record. The unusually warm winter weather reduced demand by 7-8 bcfd. The US would have had a huge problem if the winter weather had been closer to normal. Adkins predicted that increased demand from an improving economy, reduced supply rate due to decline, and a return to more normal and colder winter weather would cause excessive withdrawals from natural gas storage. Gas prices could spike to as high as $10/Mcf and certainly to more than $5/Mcf, in response.


Black Blade: Gee Whiz, I could have written this article. He's exactly right. There's another energy crisis on the horizon and we will see higher energy prices going forward. Just as the higher energy prices triggered this economic recession and the fact that nothing has been done to mitigate the fall in hydrocarbon production, we are certainly doomed to repeat the energy crisis we saw last year.

I called some friends in Oklahoma City, OK, Houston, TX, and Casper, WY (all industry insiders). I had asked why with NG prices double the average rate did we see so little increase in exploration and production activity. The response was unanimous - they are waiting until prices improve further and remain higher (also to burn off stored inventory). A couple of them said that prices were still too low to justify expenditures should prices retreat. In effect they said that they wanted to hold back on production until prices were much higher. One even told me that they were looking for prices nearer to the $10 Mbtu area that we saw during the last energy price spike in California last year. It looks to me that we are set up for another energy price hike this winter. The data suggests that this could occur and now I suspect that we will see the energy companies just hold off production until prices rise further. Another point that I heard was that they are also waiting until the BLM and EPA get their act together so that they can work to bring on production efficiently without having to "hurry up and wait". It appears that this economic recession will be with us for quite some time. An economic recovery "must" have cheap and abundant energy and with the BLM and EPA in a "pissin match", this recession will be with us for a long time.

Horatio
Israel
The"American"plan to get the Palestineans out of the Christian site is nothing more than a plan to transfer the hatred of the Israel's to the Americans.They will now be seen as responsible for the prosecution of these criminals.

Bush first instints were correct to avoid involvement.
He is being sucked in.
LeSin
"They are Running Scared" or Simply Do Not Understand
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3XMA6PM0D


Lex: Gold
Published: April 29 2002 20:02 | Last Updated: April 29 2002 20:05

Goldbugs rejoice! The yellow metal hit a two-year high in European trading on Monday, touching $312/ounce before closing at $309.65, up 12 per cent since the start of the year. Over the same period, the FTSE Gold Mines index has risen a staggering 55 per cent. And this on top of substantial gains in 2001.

Gold's supporters claim it is recovering its old position as a mainstream asset. They attribute the latest rise to fears about the Middle East, the dollar, oil and inflation. However, this analysis is confused and self-contradictory. It is hard to imagine a recovery that is profitless and inflationary. Anyway, the gold market is too illiquid and inaccessible to be of much use to mainstream investors. There is a more mundane explanation. Since 2001, gold miners have reduced their hedging positions. This trend gained force with Newmont's recent acquisition of Normandy. The reduction of forward sales put upward pressure on prices, reinforced by speculative funds taking long positions of their own.

Can this continue? Not much longer. There is a natural cap, as rising prices tempt renewed hedging and central bank sales. Some argue that the spot price should follow mining shares still higher. But mining stocks are geared plays on gold; and much of their gain relates to weakness in the rand and Australian dollar, which makes mines in those countries more profitable whatever the gold price. With gold funds holding net long positions of 4m ounces, a retreat could be messy.

Snip-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What Garbage the FT Prints!

Cheers "S"


neer-do-well
PH inLA
Glad to see you in print again. Good anaysis of the ME situation by La Rouche, I wasn't aware of all the background but I sure agree with the solution. Trouble is, we got the wrong man (boy) for the job. Good for the POG but little else.
Ag Mountain
tedw, your friend suffers needlessly and it's his own damned fault
If your description of his selling exploits are any indication of his buying techniques, I have one thing to say: If he didn't whore around like that, he'd probably have a real relationship with a single quality gold firm willing to treat him right regardless of whether he's coming OR going. Chalk this up to a repentant voice of experience and don't repeat the mistake.

The good news for everybody is that wisdom can come with these experiences, be it your own or the experience of another poor sod. Let this be a lesson to everyone out there. And for what it's worth, as far as precious metals brokerages go, Centennial is probably as good as you'll ever find in a lifetime of trying. So stop chasing skirts all you old dogs out there and dance with the one that's treating you right in more ways than just one.

In other words, say Thanks for the great forum and great education! Business is wherever you find it, but GOOD business is always a two-way street.
IGWA
Jinx 44 Message: 74578
Agree with you 100%. An accurate analysis.Well said!
Black Blade
Jews and Muslims? Who Cares?

Arm them to the teeth and let them kill each other. If any of them are God's alleged chosen people we would certainly find out � wouldn't we? Besides, my Gods (Odin and Thor)told me different � while I was drinking copious amounts of ale with Odin and Thor they revealed to me that it is none of the United States business to get involved with any of these murderous scum.

- Black Blade

BTW, you would have to first assume that we are believers to take a position based on emotion. All I can say as far as the United States is concerned is - "remember the USS Liberty".
Black Blade
Chaos as Argentine banks re-open
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1957000/1957796.stm
Snippit:

Argentina's banks and financial markets reopened on Monday after a 10-day emergency shutdown. The first day of business as normal was predictably chaotic. The peso surged almost 9% due to the cash shortage and rumoured action by the central bank to prevent collapse. And the leading stock market closed the day 7% lower as investors showed increased nerves about the corporate outlook in the recession-stricken country.

Today's Argentina looks very different, with unemployment rates topping 25%, millions now relying on barter to feed and clothe their families, and shanty towns multiplying. The once-prosperous middle class is now protesting in the streets, and 27 people have died in food riots and other disturbances. Inflation in April is likely to run at 10%, boosted by the effects of the plummeting currency, while the economy is likely to contract as much as 15% this year. Four presidents and five economy ministers have come and gone, and Argentines appear to see no sign of improvement.


Black Blade: This is only the beginning. Japan will soon follow, perhaps as early as next year. Japanese are being setup just as the Argentines in order to salvage the insolvent bankers. Oh those poor people, if only they took personal responsibility and held Gold and Silver and kept enough cash on hand for several months expenses.

Black Blade
Asia Flat - Except Taiwan

Most Asian markets are flat, although the tech heavy taiwan market is hammered on lowered estimates of semi-conductors. It appears that the rest of Asia is in a holding pattern. Meanwhile petroleum is flat and Gold is lower by 30 cents.

- Black Blade
Spartacus
Prodi
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3F9D8QM0D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
Prodi attacks British ambivalence to euro

The president of the European Commission has sharply criticised the UK for its ambivalence over the euro and its emphasis on ties with Washington but stepped back from some of the most biting attacks in his prepared text.

"Perhaps Britain sees the special relationship with the US as giving it that extra leverage in the world," Romano Prodi said on Monday in a speech at the Said Business School in Oxford. "I don't think that is the case." He added that a decision on joining the euro was "a matter of political will and courage".

Arguing that "the UK's stance in Europe has often been too defensive", Mr Prodi said: "In a world of globalisation . . . no country can hope to be a global player if it stands alone. This political dimension has been understated and misrepresented on this side of the Channel."

The Commission president steered away from previously leaked prepared comments that Britain was "constantly . . . dragging its feet on vital issues" and was "happy to be a junior partner in a transatlantic relationship but afraid to take its rightful place alongside its European allies".

Brussels officials said the remarks were from an earlier version of the speech. Such drafts are often used to float ideas not present in the final text.

However, Mr Prodi did not stint from comparing the UK's predicament to the long decline of Venice after its peak as "a world centre of international finance and one of Europe's real powers". He concluded: "If you don't change and you don't adapt to the new reality, you simply disappear."
Belgian
Hoi Randy
Euroland's debates on the "Le Pen" - effect(s) of anti-Euro stirring : The passionate (nationalist) French, waking up and in full defense (!!!) of the Euroland AND EURO (!!!)- CONCEPT(S). Yes, Sir...all debates conclude on that single one and most important aspect of *STABILITY*. Currency stability that is ! Yes, Euroland is concentrating on its euro-currency through thick and thin.
And here I do refer to the recently mentioned (discovered) Ferdinand Lips (Rich-GATA / Thanks). The Swiss *Another* and Gold-illumunati. The syntax (pdf) of his "Gold Wars", already says it all. Indeed, Lips even adds much more side aspects to Gold than I ever dared to contribute to it.
GOLD is the choice between Peace and Prosperity or war and chaos ! And all misery or happiness is currency related (simplified of course).

Today Sir Lips F. increased my personal deep affection for Gold with a quantum leap. Conclusion : He who dares and is able to bring GOLD back into its right monetary perspective is the winner. The globe can never walk away from GOLD too long and MUST always embrace it back with much regrets and feelings of guild.

Little note for Aristoteles : F. Lips is a former Rothschild executive and on board of several miners !?
Remember your question if and why miners are so scared of their own product * GOLD * ?
Belgian
@ Spartacus
The Brits are stepping up their Euroland adherence campaign, not because they suddenly became so continental minded...but because they feel/smell the dollar-block final reckoning. Euroland doesn't pushes the UK to speed it up because we are so in love with old time rulers...but we need them to finish off the new dollar imperialism.

Gold waits patiently in the background, whilst political events take a much higher profile over the strict monetary underlyings. And the economical aspects only come third in the row. The US external policies show a close analogy with european ambitions (wars-expansionism) in the periods 1914/1918-1940/1945. Remember TG saying that the US is rolling downhill and Euroland climbing uphill.

British citizens will accept (with reluctance though) to change side and the UK will remain the go-between of Euroland and the US. Tony has already been acting this way.

The present power struggles are currency battles for supremacy. Globalization has provided the same economic tools to all who want to participate and have therefore equal chances. The currency imbalances are the only obstacle left to be removed for having 100% equal economic arms/tools and chances. GOLD will be the arbiter !
Black Blade
DuPont to Cut 2,000 Jobs, Close Parts of Two Plants
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM12IBO5RHVQb250
Snippit:

Wilmington, Delaware, April 29 (Bloomberg) -- DuPont Co., the inventor of nylon, will eliminate about 2,000 jobs in its textiles unit and close portions of two plants in New York and Virginia as it prepares to shed the business.

Black Blade: And so it goes, the "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade
Qwest faces new probe
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/29/technology/qwest/index.htm
States said to investigate deals reportedly made to keep rivals quiet about expansion.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Regulators in six states are investigating Qwest Communications International Inc. for making secret deals with rival telecom firms that agreed not to oppose Qwest's expansion of its long-distance operations, according to a published

Black Blade: Yep, another scandal on Wall Street. Glad I sold that dog (Qwest).

CoBra(too)
@ R. Powell - Re: Gold Wars
Hello, Rich - see that Belgian has already answered. I may only state in addition that Ferdi Lips has been a staunch Gold Advocate throughout his career.
He has had the distinction to "found" the Rothschild Bank of Zurich in the late 60's or early 70's, where he has served as CEO for several yeras.
Ferdi went on to found the Lips Bank, which again was heavily involved in PM's. Have ordered his newest book too- regards cb2
Black Blade
Credit card late payments hit 5-year high
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2002-04-29-late-payments.htm
Snippit:

Legions of less affluent consumers are falling behind on credit card bills, pushing late payments to the highest level in nearly five years and losses from uncollectable debt to an 11-year high. Charge-offs, the amount of bad card debt that banks write off, climbed to 6.59% in March, up from 4.74% a year ago and highest since February 1991.

Yet many consumers are reining in card use. In the first two months of the year, revolving debt, which is mostly credit card debt, grew at an annual rate of 1.2%, compared with 20.8% a year earlier, according to Federal Reserve data. Low interest rates help to explain the slowdown in card debt. Many homeowners have used low-interest home-equity loans or cash back from refinancing a mortgage to pay off higher rate card balances.


Black Blade: Looks like a recovery to me (yeah right). Consumers are tapped out and now many are putting their homes at risk. What insanity! Get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started.

Black Blade
Media Gold Bears

I see that the financial media is bringing out the Gold Bears again. The latest was Howard Patten of Barclay's Capital. The usual line that central banks will sell Gold and that Gold is not a good investment, yada yada yada...

You get the picture. Meanwhile Gold is down almost $2.00 an ounce. Petroleum and the USD are relatively unchanged. However, the market indices are higher.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Worldcom CEO Resigns - May File Chapter 11


Just over the wire is that Worldcom CEO Bernie Ebbers has resigned ahead of a possible Chapter 11 filing. The stock has fallen from $64 to $2.39. Reportly Ebbers has been asked by the board of directors to return hundreds of billions of dollars in company guaranteed loans. This should be "interesting" as I am sure his stock options are under water and he does not have the cash on hand. It should be noted that the company is under investigation by the SEC for "accounting irregularities". Hmmm...

- Black Blade
Aristotle
Of course!! Thanks for the awakening rap on my noggin, Sir Belgian!
It's the ****Suits**** on the Board of Directors that are running scared! In that old post to you I completely overlooked the fact that even the smallest, grubbiest group of engineering-dominated mining companies will often have access to the Big League mentality via the Suits sitting on the Board. That makes many of these darling juniors of the Gold investment world more than the hapless followers of the Biggies that I made them out to be. It puts them right in the thick of the battle, many fighting for their tired old jobs rather than for the Right Market structure for their product -- Free Gold! Sheeeeeeeesh!! Will they ever learn?

Apparently they like to keep their executive positions where people will return their phone calls. Ha! Do they forget that raw massive wealth is persuasive and attractive, too, when it comes to having your calls returned? Personally, I'd rather take the days off -- load up on Gold having sold my stake in the company, and then do the media circuit spouting every chance about a Free Gold market. The time is right, wouldn't you say? Wouldn't you say that the primary central bankers are "open and receptive" to the idea, to put it in plain vanilla?

Maybe Chris Thompson, stepping down from a job well done at Gold Fields, will become the visible hero on the talk show tour while us "anonymous nobodys" remain in the shadows, smiling, nodding, and watching our Gold swell with recognized value. Whaddaya think...will anyone return our own calls?

Ya know, that good old boy FOA was a helluva lot smarter than anyone openly gave him proper credit for. I'll bet he's got an answering machine that can't keep up while he's in the garden, the rascal. You think?

Sir Belgian, thanks for sharing your latest keen insights from Europe. Were they carved in stone, they'd be worth their weight in Gold -- double-spaced and with wide margins!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
Chancellor Brown Loses US$700 Million Of UK Assets Through Gold Sales.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/April-2002/brown300402.htm
Snippit:

Let us hope that some keen gofer in the Treasury Office remembers to append the price of gold on a daily basis to the vital information arrayed on the Chancellor's desk when he enters his office in the morning. It will serve to remind him that his obstinacy over selling UK gold assets is costing the country more and more each day as the gold price rises and the US dollar falls. According to the calculations by Minews the sum is now US$ 700 million - a sum which could buy two or three hospitals and pay nurses a bit more.

Black Blade: This just gets better doesn't it? Looks like "stunning" results from the home office all right. I guess they may take the crown jewels from the queen next and sell them at Sotheby's.

Black Blade
The Price of Gold Is Shining. Hedging of Gold Is Not.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/28/business/yourmoney/28PORT.html?ex=1020657600&en=ffab17332a27b772&ei=5006∂ner=ALTAVISTA
Snippit:

The performance of Barrick Gold's stock shows that the sentiment of the gold market has swung sharply against hedging. Randall Oliphant, president of Barrick, said the battle over hedging "is a bunch of nonsense." But it is not, because it is having an impact on his stock.

Hedgers and anti-hedgers have been battling for years. Hedgers lock in the current price of gold, plus a premium, by borrowing gold, selling it and then investing the proceeds. They say this is good management and smart protection against a price decline. Anti-hedgers are more bullish on gold, saying hedging prevents a company from reaping the full benefit of a price rise. They talk much less about the downside risk.


Black Blade: The "Day of the Hedger" is over. Good article worth reading.

Black Blade
Crying Argentines

I just saw an interesting segment on the Argentine crisis. The first one was about the banking mess. they are going to have other segments today. The next segment will be about the barter trades. In a word - "GRIM"

If only they had some of those Gold Argentinos.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
From The Barbarous Relic Files
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020429221309906P650888&set_id=60
Missing gold bars strike note of discord

Snippit:

Johannesburg - Harmony Gold Mining's management team was left scratching their heads after two 1-ounce gold bars went missing at a presentation of the gold producer's March quarter results yesterday. The case of five gold bars, all with the Harmony logo, were passed around during the presentation but returned to the owners two bars short.

Black Blade: A lot of noise over a barbarous relic. Hmmm�
Black Blade
Women continue with �gold rush�
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=8111425&sType=1
Snippit:

HANDIGARH: Women of the city are not bored with buying gold chains and bangles. Despite the rate of the precious metal soaring to Rs 4,900 for ten grams in the past few days, sales have increased to almost double, which proves that the fascination for the metal has not waned, but on the contrary has increased as the glittering metal becomes dearer. ��Women of the region have a fetish for bangles and gold chains.The sale of these ornaments exceeds sales of all other ornaments,�� says Arvind of Bhola jewellers, Sector 8 as orders pour in at his shop.

Although the excuse offered by buyers is that traditionally it is auspicious to buy gold during the navratras, jewellers are ecstatic about the rising trend in buying gold as an investment and speculate that this trend is here to stay. ��People are once again confident that gold is not a dead investment and although prices are rising, they are nonetheless buying more of the precious metal,�� revealed Sunil. ��Gold as an investment is simple to buy and easy to dispose of and once again people's faith in it has been revived by the rising prices,�� he added. An additional reason for city residents going back to investing in gold is also quoted as the cause behind erratic prices of immovable property.


Black Blade: Good article that states in no uncertain terms that demand for Gold has increased along with the price. The higher the price � the higher the sales.
Grubstaker
A GOLD "WHODUNNIT"....
Missing gold bars strike note of discord
Sherilee Bridge
April 30 2002 at 12:02AM

Johannesburg - Harmony Gold Mining's management team was left scratching their heads after two 1-ounce gold bars went missing at a presentation of the gold producer's March quarter results yesterday.

The case of five gold bars, all with the Harmony logo, were passed around during the presentation but returned to the owners two bars short.

Fearing a hoax, management waited for the bars to be returned but they failed to surface. Harmony director Ferdi Dippenaar said last night that the new bullion bars had still not turned up.

....Old precious yellow is known to do strange things to normally upright folks....

The ounce bars were valued at R3 283.50 at yesterday's spot price. Their value could rise with global political uncertainty. - Sherilee Bridge



Henri
Spring Gobbler season is upon us
I'm off in pursuit of the elusive and noble prey, that would have our national symbol had Ben Franklin had his way.

Uh oh I've lapsed into rhyme, cb2 is contagious
Tommy P
adding to the bone pile
Mr Gresham
Black Blade
Just to repeat myself, one more time, again: In that squeezed 15-minute interval between when I wake up, and others wake up, it's a treat to read "The Morning Blade", rather than the Morning Blab.

You oughta stop and think about all the paperboys you're probably sending off to the Bone Pile? (They never really had a very good shot at our front porch anyway...)

(Shall we plan on a Cinco de Mayo "Negrafest" this weekend? Sierra Madre? Someone invite Hugo Salinas-Price? Time to celebrate many of Mexico's gifts to our economic understanding, and to thank it for never imposing a fiat currency in place of real value.)
darkhorse
?
Kitco's chart has spot at just above $307 and on a most uncomfortable looking dive...who's the bad guy today?
goldquest
Spot Dive
Just shaking out the weaklings before the climb back. $315+ or- by close Friday!
Belgian
The Time is Right........(Aristoteles)
My intuition strongly says...it is !

The dollarblock has been pushing (postponing) the (currency)troubles away, with all the efforts possible, by drawning the yellow saviour. Euroland will manage its coming problems exactly the opposite way by praising Gold, again.
Different central bankers (US>
It takes quite some time before a currency has accumulated enough ballast from mismanagement before the final and sudden total collapse. Very analog with the management of stockmarket paper, managed with printed confetti.
The US$ as a currency is as falsified as its peer stockmarket paper(s). Tired, falsified, profitless and intrinsically worth much less as indicated ! Euroland's stockmarkets are priced much more reasonably than the US market. So is the intrinsic value of the euro.
Overvaluations are therefore systemic and general.

Those central bankers know VERY well what they have done and are doing with the intrinsic parameters of their respective currency and its reserves. They never forgot about Gold's utmost importance. But there is an appropiate timing and ritme/pace of development for everything.
I bet that the UK entrance in EMU (very soon) will enhance the intensity of Goldreserve's use. I even do suspect (false hope ?) that Japan might jump onto the euro/gold/oil concept to escape dollar-dictate as to survive in the midst of Asian's flaming rise. Japanese finance ministry complained, today, about the credit ratings on japanese debt! The US might possible have to retreat /regroup within the americas for dollarization. Argentina, Chili, Suriname and maybe a few others might chose for the euro-concept ?

The growing currency disorder is evolving into currency chaos and Gold will gradually rise and present itself again as the saviour. No pool of any kind can hold this for ever.
The central bankers have already anticipated the coming chaos with their respective positioning on Gold. And there must certainly be some very powerfull private identities having done the same. Evidenced by the yearly offer/demand deficit, agreed on by friend and foe. Regards to you Aristo.
YGM
Get an Idea Of Where The Cabal "EXPECT" to Hold Gold Price for 3 Yrs.
SURE, OK!...4.2% for /02, 3.4% in /03, 4.5% in /04. = 12.1% for 3 yrs, How about 16.5% for LAST 12!Deutsche ups 3-yr gold price forecasts

2002-04-30 16:00:44 GMT (Reuters)

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday it was raising its forecasts for the average prices of gold over the next three years because of political tensions, strong market fundamentals and current high prices.

Deutsche lifted its forecast for the metal for this year by 4.2 percent or $11.90 to an average of $296.90 a troy ounce from its previous $285.

The bank added $10 or 3.4 percent onto its original forecast for 2003 to average $300 from $290 previously, with their assessment for 2004 rising by $13 or 4.5 percent to $305 from $292 an ounce.

"With prices closing on April 29 in London at their highest level since February 8 2000, our rising price profile built around a marked change in the dynamics of producer hedging and increased investment demand has already been exceeded," Deutsche Bank said.

"This has largely been the result of renewed strength in safe haven investment buying in the face of rising political tensions in the Middle east, mounting inflationary concerns fuelled by a weakening U.S. dollar and rising oil prices, continued investor concern about the security and stability of the Japanese banking system and weakness in the U.S. equity market," Deutsche said.

Traders have separately identified Israel's military incursions into the West bank, rising oil prices, the campaign to flush out Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan, the threat of U.S. military attacks on Iraq and brittle U.S. equity markets as driving the price of gold to its present levels.

Gold ended in London on Tuesday at $307.30/307.80 a troy ounce, 16.5 percent higher than at this time a year ago.

YGM
'Last 12' should read...
16.5 % in last 12 Months....Nobody is better at double talk and B>S> than a Banker....
Pippin
"Flight from the dollar": Interesting article fom James Turk.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/apr302002.htmlFirst two paragraphs of a long article:

Quote
One of the most basic premises about which I have been writing for years is about to be tested. Will we get a flight from the dollar or will there be some other alternative? The moment of truth is rapidly approaching.

It has been one of my basic contentions that arguments about inflation or deflation have been misguided. Like generals who prepare for the future by fighting the last war, those who argue that we face inflation or deflation are looking backwards at past events to extrapolate their vision of the future. I see something different. I call it a flight from the dollar.
UnQuote
Rock
Goldquest I agree with you buddy!
I don't worry about the gold dips because when gold spikes it spikes hard. You have to expect some down play here and there just like todays market is up pretty good but again it won't be sustained. I watched gold go from 260.00 to where it is today so I don't fret the days it dips a bit. All we need is one straw to break the camels back to change things in a moments time. Cheers to all,

Sir Rock
Cavan Man
@YGM
If wishes were horses beggars would ride.
White Hills
Black Blade, Sierra Madre
The USA was attacked on 9/11. we have, and rightly so, launched an attack on world wide terrorism. The 9/11 attack was also economic and more such actions are threatened. An old saying seems appropriate, THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND. We have only one friend in the ME and that is Isreal. The fact that they are Jews is beside the point. White Hills
Jefreypeterson
HELLO FOLKS, Gooday to you all.
This sure is an informative and interesting forum, I'm happy I found it.
YGM
Press Release....Reg Howe Fights On....
With "Big Name Law Firms".....'Upping The Volume'Berger & Montague, P.C. and Reginald H. Howe
Sue Kinross Gold Corp. And Related Persons
on Behalf of Unaffiliated Investors in Kinam Gold Inc.

PHILADELPHIA, April 30 /PRNewswire/ -- On April 26, 2002,
the law firm of Berger & Montague, P.C. and attorney Reginald
H. Howe, through the Nevada law firm of Kummer Kaempfer
Bonner & Renshaw, filed a class action suit against Kinross
Gold Corp. ("Kinross") (Amex: KGC - news), Kinross Gold
U.S.A. Inc. ("Kinross USA"), Kinam Gold Inc. ("Kinam")
(Amex: KGC.pb - news) and Robert M. Buchan, Chairman
& Chief Executive Officer of Kinross, in the United States
District Court for Nevada on behalf of all persons or entities
unrelated to Kinross who now hold Kinam Preferred Stock
or who tendered Kinam Preferred Stock to the issuer
tender offer (the "Tender Offer") by Kinross USA effected
February-March 2002.

A copy of the complaint filed in this action is available from
the Court, or can be viewed at (http://www.bergermontague.com)
or at (http://www.goldensextant.com).

The Complaint alleges that defendants, over an extended time
frame and in numerous separate steps, breached the terms
of the Kinam Preferred Stock, breached the fiduciary duties
owed by control persons and major shareholders to other
shareholders, violated the "best price rule" promulgated under
Section 13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the
"Exchange Act"), violated anti-fraud provisions of rules
promulgated under Sections 10(b), 13(e) and 14(c) of the
Exchange Act, violated the anti-racketeering law set forth
in Section 207 of the Nevada Revised Statutes, committed
common law fraud, and violated New York Stock Exchange
Rule 311.03.

Since the 1998 merger pursuant to which Kinross acquired
control of Kinam, as alleged in the complaint, Kinross has
consistently and repeatedly acted to impair the value of
Kinam Preferred Stock in order to facilitate a subsequent
purchase at an unfair price, culminating in the coercive
and illegal Tender Offer of February-March 2002.

If you now hold shares of Kinam Preferred Stock, or if you
tendered shares of Kinam Preferred Stock to the Tender
Offer, you may, no later than 60 days from today, move
to be appointed as a Lead Plaintiff. A Lead Plaintiff is a
representative party that acts on behalf of other class
members in directing the litigation.

If you hold or tendered Kinam Preferred Stock, please
contact Berger & Montague, P.C. at investorprotect@bm.net
for a more thorough explanation of the Lead Plaintiff selection
process.

The law firm of Berger & Montague, P.C. has over 50
attorneys, all of whom represent plaintiffs in complex litigation.
The Berger firm has extensive experience representing
plaintiffs in class action securities litigation and has played
lead roles in major cases over the past 25 years which have
resulted in recoveries of several billion dollars to investors.

The firm is currently representing investors as lead counsel
in actions against Rite Aid, Sotheby's, Waste Management
Inc., Sunbeam, Boston Chicken, and IKON Office Solutions
Inc.

The standing of Berger & Montague, P.C. in successfully
conducting major securities and antitrust litigation has been
recognized by numerous courts. For example:

"Class counsel did a remarkable job in representing the
class interests." -- In Re: IKON Offices Solutions Securities
Litigation. Civil Action No. 98-4286(E.D.Pa.) (partial settlement
for $111 million approved May, 2000).

"...[Y]ou have acted the way lawyers at their best ought to
act. And I have had a lot of cases ... in 15 years now as a
judge and I cannot recall a significant case where I felt people
were better represented than they are here... I would say this
has been the best representation that I have seen." -- In Re:
Waste Management, Inc. Securities Litigation, Civil Action
No. 97-C 7709 (N.D. Ill.) (settled in 1999 for $220 million).

If you now hold shares of Kinam Preferred Stock, or if you
tendered shares of Kinam Preferred Stock to the Tender Offer,
please visit our website at www.bergermontague.com to view
the complaint and join the class action. If you have any questions
concerning this notice or your rights with respect to this matter,
please contact:

Merrill G. Davidoff, Esquire
Jacob A. Goldberg, Esquire
Kimberly A. Walker, Investor Relations Manager
Berger & Montague, P.C.
1622 Locust Street
Philadelphia, PA 19103
Phone: 888-891-2289 or 215-875-3000
Fax: 215-875-5715
Website: http://www.bergermontague.com
e-mail: InvestorProtect@bm.net

-END-

YGM
Derivative Thread....
http://www.credit-deriv.com/crenewsaug01.htm#scandalExcerpt--

Credit derivatives market had priced Enron collapse long before it was public

Next time, you need to predict the bankruptcy of a company, you do not have to run Altman's Z-score: simply look at the way the default swaps on the company's name are quoting. It is either a case of the credit derivatives market being used as a premonition for impending bankruptcies: it appears that good 2 months before the actual news of the collapse of Enron was out, the default swaps market had already begun pricing it.

An article in Forbes of 4th March says that on Aug. 15, the day after Enron's chief Jeffrey Skilling abruptly resigned, the default swap price on Enron moved up 18%, though there was no impact on the stock prices. On that day, default swaps were priced 185 basis points By Oct. 25, the default swap price had soared to 9000 bps which essentially meant the protection seller would get 90% to guarantee a 100% repayment of Enron's debt. The article says that even at that price, it was a great deal buying protection. Several banks did buy protection.

mikal
@White Hills
Double, double, toil and trouble Paper BURN and cauldron BUBBLE Round about the cauldron go Witches chant the spell they throw Seeds of death and bodies plow Barren land and bloody brow Tobacco chew and bloody scarab Finger of babe and retching Arab Demons dance, watch it BUBBLE
RobotGuy
It just occurred to me,... North Americans seem to think that they aren't susceptible to suffering a long term recession....Hmmmm.
Just because the past follows a somewhat regular pattern of ups and downs, doesn't mean the future will duplicate that pattern. Perhaps hindsight may be 20/20, but forsight is completely blind.
YGM
A Question For The "Wiser Forum Minds Here".....
http://www.credit-deriv.com/crenewsaug01.htm#argentina_enronLINK...Credit derivatives News Aug 2001 to Date.

Question:.........Will Derivatives Market and exposure to same be the "Big Trigger" to financial Armegeddon????


Known Derivatives Exposure held primarily (estimated at 85/95%) by US Banks and their Holding Co's.....(Approx. figures all)

27+ Trillion $ in 1996
29+ Trillion $ in 1997
33+ Trillion $ in 1998
44+ Trillion $ in 1999

*I'm currently looking for 2000/2001 stats at treasury site.
Black Blade
Sharon Takes Us Back To 1948

Snippit:

Indeed, there is even an ironic symmetry in the fact that Ariel Sharon's old "special" forces Unit 101 was as active in Jenin this month as it was half a century ago in the attack on the Palestinian village of Qibya in October 1953 when 69 civilians were killed, their houses blown up over their heads as the future Israeli prime minister oversaw the operation in person. Jenin can thus be seen as the latest episode in a long-running Israeli attempt to break the back of the Palestinian national movement by attacking its soft civilian underbelly. Sharon's ongoing assault on the authority in many ways represents a return to the raw existential confrontations of 1948 in the land of Palestine, albeit with an even greater imbalance in tools of confrontation available to each side.

Sunday's apparent resolution of the impasse over Arafat's imprisonment in Ramallah should not be misconstrued: Israeli rightwing triumphalism is in full swing and its appetite for colonial expansion and a "greater Israel" whetted again. Even before the latest violence, 34 new settlement outposts had been established by Sharon on the West Bank and plans are apace to expand into densely populated areas of Hebron and Arab Jerusalem. The apparent defeat of the authority can only serve to fire the right wing's enthusiasm for yet more radical solutions - including a return to the basics of "transfer", or ethnic cleansing, supported by about 50% of the Israeli electorate, according to opinion polls. Sharon is now likely to extend his war to Gaza and is still bent on the political, perhaps physical, elimination of Yasser Arafat. His ultimate goal is no less than the total subjugation and dissolution of the Palestinian national movement.


Black Blade: As I said, this conflict will never end. The whole region is a tinder box and US involvement only jeopardizes the US economy by putting our Oil supply at risk. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose. The whole Israeli invasion is the same as the US invasion of the West and subjugation of the Native peoples by forcing them onto slivers of usually the most worthless land. When the American Indian resisted we did not call them "terrorist", we called them "savages". The victor gets to write the history books.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,707555,00.html
Black Blade
Sorry - The Missing Link
YGM
Many Pages from Google search on 'Derivatives Collapse'
http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=+site:www.gold-eagle.com+Derivative+CollapseI find it interesting that few discussions here ever delve into the world of the Derivatives mess....YGM
Pizz
YGM
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmWe've discussed derivitives off and on, but not too much lately.

Main reason is there is no difinitive data to analyze, since the bulk of the derivitives that we need to worry about are all "netted" out on the financials and you can't tell who's exposed where, how. and when. The other problem is that most of them are not exchange regulated (I know that's a bit of a joke) or exchanged traded and the terms can be whatever the two parties agree to.

I think Blake Blade found the above link a few days ago, and Puplava estimates current outstanding derivitives notional value at over 100 trillion.

Will this be what sends us over the edge. IMHO yes. It's only a matter of time (as Puplava states) before the whole mess comes unglued.

It's kind of like the biggest gambling game in world. Hundreds of thousand gamblers placing bets, some laying off the odds, some naked, and everybody's computer models say everyone is going to win. Can't happen.

It will come apart as soon as the liquidity and capital dry up, and it's already starting. The smart big players are cutting back activity (due to Enron), and the short duration derivitives will be the first to be covered. The problem with this is that there are many longer term players laying off (offsetting) with short term positions. Without the ability to renew or roll the short term positions, we'll have many players naked on their derivitives, and a couple spikes (rogue waves as Puplava like to call them) will start the end game.

JPM's backing away from major short term lines of credit for a good reason. A month or so ago Tyco drew down on something like 12 billion of bank lines right out of the blue. If you can't hedge your derivitive portfolio, you better have the cash, or if you know your're going to need it, best get it while you still can. Borrowing short and lending long only works if you can predict, hedge, and or control the short end. The same with derivitives, if there's no short end to hedge the long, you better hope for stability.

Pizz
Black Blade
CNBC Boots Another One

I see that resident economist Marci Rossell has been "allowed" to spend more time with her family. I noticed that something was amiss when she was suddenly missing from the network commercials (the same ones that she was originally in). She has been more critical of Wall Street and the bogus reports from the government agencies (such as the BLS) lately. Apparently shecould not deal with palying the part of brainless cheerleader anymore.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Pizz
Black Blade
I was just starting to like that gal just a bit. Maybe she had enough character to tell them where to put it, in economic terms of course.

Wonder how long before they'll go to T & A to keep their ratings, course that means a few more replacements.

Cold beer only two hours away PDT.

Pizz
Rock
CNBC Boots another one!
Black BladeI as Pizz liked Marci Rossell a bit because she seemed to me to go against as you say the cheer leading mantality. Oh well another one off to the bone pile.

Sir Rock
YGM
Pizz.....Thanks......
....for the run down...I should have caught our friend
sharp "Blade's" link but missed it somehow...Like you say the derivative world is very murky. I'm just suprised more anti-cheerleading analysts don't spend more time focusing on this area. I guess those in the know "Already Know" and have invested and re-acted accordingly. If the grip of the so called Cabal can control the major media w/ respect to Gold they could do as much or more when it comes to info that would/could cause no small amount of panic in the Banking world. I'm still trying to get a handle on Bank exposure to Derivatives at present. I would not be at all surprised to see the same 500/700 times capital asset base positions by the top 8 US Banks as I had found 3 yrs ago. The site where I found this info (Graph) that I posted on the GATA forum in the early days does not exist today.....
Now that's not a surprise?? When one considers there are some experts predicting that if the truth were known, the Exposure (Deriv) could be +/- 140 Trillion dollars, then that makes the PPT indispensible and a mighty force w/ every power short of God backing them up.....Interesting and fraudulent times we live in.....Well this sheeple keeps very little in the system. My Bank is the "Creek Bank"....
...among other places...YGM.
YGM
Pizz.....Anyone?
Interest RatesThe same with derivitives, if there's no short end to hedge the long, you better hope for stability......

Question: Stability?

*So then a sharp rise in Fed Interest Rates could become a death toll possibly sending another fund etc to the bone pile?.....YGM.
IGWA
Black Blade: Mess 74585 "Jews & Muslims? Who cares?
After 9/11, Black Blade, I would have thought that you (and the USA) cared. You can no longer let them 'fight it out' (and I appreciate you were being somewhat flippant..I hope..) They (Muslims) won't let you stand on the side lines.

This post is very much about gold so bear with me.

Look around the world's trouble spots and what do you find? Muslims killing non Muslims, mostly.

The Koran states: "when you meet unbelievers, smite their necks, then, when you have made wide slaughter among them, tie fast the bonds" (Sura 47:4-7)

and

"slay the idolterers, wherever you find them, and take them captive and beseige them and lie in wait for them in every ambush". (9:5,6)

Clear enough? Better be, 'cos that's what's starting to happen as Islamic fundamentalism takes hold throughtout the world.

In Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, (and just up the road from where I live) the mass murder of Christians by Muslims is an almost daily occurance. Just because they are Christian. (and yes, the Christians do reciprocate -just like the Jewish state does when its citizens are murdered).

In Europe - France particularly - Arab/Muslim "immigrants" are the main cause of serious crime.

Here in Australia gangs of - listen to this - SECOND GENERATION Arab/Muslims gang-rape Australian girls BECAUSE THEY ARE AUSTRALIAN..

They are involved in serious crime - murder, rape, robbery, drugs - out of all proportion to their numbers. A day doesn't go by without a report of serious crime committed by "men of Middle Appearance".

Well excuse me, sounds like they're a bit different. Different culture, different values. Certainly otally different to mine, and totally unacceptable to me.

And in case anyone acuses me of a little xenophobia, my wife is a wonderful Asian girl; smart too, with a Masters Degree. I have great respect for different values & cultures. But I judge them by their actions, and Muslim culture, by it's actions is c***. IMHO, of course. Read what Jinx 44 eloquently said in his post of 74578. He tells it 'like it is',the truth, far better than I can.

So back to the point. I believe we're at the start of what may turn out to be a 50 or 100 or 200 year long conflict - Muslims v. the rest.

And I understand, Balck Blade, that there are around 3 million Muslims in the USA. Most - the vast majority I'm sure, are good people and want to live their lives in peace and do the best they can. Just like the rest of us. But if only a tiny fraction are radicalised, then my friend, you have BIG problems. As will have the rest of the world. (In France, there are great concerns about North African black migrants who integrated into French society, and are now DIS-integrating from society as they take up radical Islam. Ring any bells over there in the good 'ol US of A??)

9/11 expressed Muslim hatred against the USA as the representation & personification of Western/Democratic/Christian-Judeo valaues. You 'aint seen nothin' yet....

As this conflict grows and expands it'll have a dramatic effect on the POG. Along with all the other factors. You can start cheering now, but when gold hits $5,000 oz, the world will hardly bear living in. That's when the World Council will step in and 'save us from ourselves' and ban gold. Happy days, folks, enjoy while you can....

igwa






YGM
IS THIS NEWS?........"GOLD TRUST RECIEPTS"
Or have I been asleep at the wheel again?Excerpt from Dow Theory Letter, Apr. 30.......


Russell

The gold industry has been holding discussions with various stock exchanges including the NYSE about issuing "gold trust receipts." These could be bought and sold like stocks. Each gold trust receipt would be backed by part of an ounce of actual physical gold. Thus, they wouldn't be leveraged with depositors' assets the way banks are. When you buy one of these receipts it would show that you actually owned an measure of gold, and this gold would be taken off the market and held in a bank vault. Result -- an inexpensive liquid gold investment that would create some physical demand for the metal without the investor worrying about where to keep his gold.

Russell comment -- a good idea, and I think it's going to happen. The negative -- a lot of skeptics want to keep their gold off the record and in their own hands. Gold is anonymous if held by you. As soon as you buy a receipt, the government can know who has the gold and how much they have.


**Comment**....Sure they'd be honored just like the Gov Gold Certs after the "Great Confiscation" (THEFT) of the 30's....Ahh well some fish will bite a hook with no bait even.... and this gives you 'Part' of an ounce, HA >>>>>


Black Blade
Re: IGWA � Middle Eastern Affairs

I think that you may have missed my point. I don't really care who wins or loses in the region. I doubt that the majority of Americans do. There are certain realities that people tend to miss because they are too focused on emotion (or religion). As a non-believer (I guess that makes me a Godless infidel � OK, so be it, at least my Gods are Scandinavian � Odin and Thor), I am in a position to use common sense and logic as I have no "emotional" ties to either side. The reason that Muslim and Israeli radicals attack the US is because unlike other nations, we (the US Government) interject ourselves into their affairs and support the enemy of one side over the other. We have more to lose by playing these games. The best thing to do is leave them alone to destroy each other until they either come to an agreement to live together in peace or simply exterminate one side or the other.

Either way who really cares who wins? The only concern for the US is a steady supply of oil. The victors will sell the ME oil for a price as greed exceeds all variables. The western nations depend on oil for our very economic survival and to jeopardize that supply (in the face of denial and a lack of commitment for energy independence) for a few votes from a certain constituency and the "soft money" that accompanies it is just foolishness. In fact all sides (both Arab and Israeli) despise the US. One side call us "goyem", the other side calls us "infidels", and both refer to us a "cockroaches". If anything all out warfare would be beneficial for the POG and hopefully settle the issue once and for all.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold and Petroleum Falling
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
It must be that oil inventories (as per API) are surging as the POO and NG are dropping in after hours. It appears that the POG is also falling in tandem with petroleum prices.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
The China Factor - Why Won't Crude Oil Prices Come Down?
http://www.oil-gasoline.com/default.asp?id=645
Why Won't Crude Oil Prices Come Down?

Snippit:

For the past few months, crude oil prices have hovered above OPEC goals despite increases in the availability of additional production. Initial research into the problem suggests a shortage of transportation capacity. It appears that although all refineries are able to obtain as much crude oil as they need to operate, they are not able to import additional crude oil without bidding prices up. It's not good business to pay a higher price for something you intend to store in the future unless you are sure prices will increase. In recent months, refiners seem to be betting on crude oil prices going down. But spot prices continue at high levels. A slightly deeper look into what's happening suggests prices may not go down for two or three years. In fact, they could peak well above current prices unless the international refining community makes some very important operational changes.

The Problem is China's Rapidly Emerging Economy

China's emerging economy is in the process of changing the entire oil supply-demand picture. Until now, the US was the country that provided the marginal demand in the crude oil market. But that was when China produced enough oil to satisfy it's relatively meager demand. Recently, things have changed in China.


Black Blade: I have hit on this before. And it gets even better � China has been in negotiations to "import" oil from Iran because they are unable to meet growing demand. As the Chinese economy grows and its 1.2 billion people improve economically and they demand their "fair share" of the worlds energy, we will see energy supply become tighter. Also, do not forget the large population of India (fast approaching 1 billion). They too will make the same demands on energy. The POO is not likely to decline to the levels of 1998 ever again. A very good article that outlines that and other problems with the economic boom in China.
IGWA
Black Blade
O.K. But the real point is the conflict will be much wider than the ME. It won't be "them over there". It'll be everywhere. We live in interesting times.

Anyway, I don't mind a drop of Odin & Thor myself, when my real god, J. W. Black Label is unavailable.

igwa
Pizz
YGM
RE: Derivitives and Interest rates

Here's my understanding of how interest rate derivitives work in a simplified manner. The actual workings are much more complicated and formal.


Company A issues a 1M bond for 1 years @2%. Interest payments will be 20,000 per year.

Company B issues a 1M bond for 10 years @6%. Interest expense 60,000 per year.

Company A has lots of cash (or cash flow) and has the ability to borrow short term because of a high credit rating.

Company B is not as finacially strong and is limited to longer term financing. (To borrow short term you have to be able to prove you can pay the principal back in a short period of time).

Now the two companies do an interest rate swap (derivitive contract) that in effect says that for one year company A pays company B 40,000, the differecnce between the interest, with the understanding that company A will in the second year pay the difference between the, then, short term
rate on the new 1 year bond that replaces the current one.

(Company A may also gets a fee for the swap, since the less credit worthy company is the one trying to mitigate his higher interest expense - more earnings per share).

So the net effect is company A has the effect of 6% long term money, and company B has the effect of 2% short term money (plus a fee?).

Short term rates spike to 10%, and instead of receiving 40,000 from company A in the second year, Company B has to pay 40,000 to company A, the difference between the 6% long term bond and the new 10% 1 year bond.

Interest rate swaps put the risk back upon those least able to pay.

Now it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why the companies do it. The less credit worthy company is trying to pump earnings using short term financing rates, and the credit worthy company is getting a better than market rate on their short term bond by way of the fee AND THE TRANSFER OF THE INTEREST RATE RISK INHERENT WITH SHORT TERM FINANCING. they can put their cash to work longer term and into less liquid investments - like capital expenditures.

If the FED cranks the rates too quickly, the weak company's stock crashes due to the earnings problem and/or they go bankrupt. All due to the pressure to keep EPS up. Even the credit worthy company may have a problem if they used the money for plant and equipment, the economy goes south, and they have to go back into the credit markets at higher rates to replace the short term bond that was swapped.

Now can the economy crash with higher interest rates? Only if foreigners bail out of our paper assets, we get another terrorist strike, or if the cabal can't hold gold prices in check. We could get three for three and the derivitives game will be over, IMHO.

Pizz







Canuck
@ BB
Good job buddy, finally someone calls a spade a spade.

I have been reading theories on Bush being 'goated' into getting involved at the last minute. Now we wait the Arab retaliation?

There are as many radical, self-interested theories from one side of the fence as the other. Who is right and who is wrong? Well apparently decades of fussing have accomplished jack diddly.

The US has made the mistake of 'picking sides', well since a spade is a spade, the numerous theories of the 'cause' of 911 comes to mind. Maybe playing a little 'Switzerland' and watching from the sidelines instead of 'introvention' would be a novell approach.

Apparently, and this is highly speculative, Saudi is not pleased that Bush entered into the array late. Could it be now that a herd of 'oil producers' have a hard-on for the US?

Time will tell if the belated introvention has back-fired.

There might be some merit in that old expression, play big or stay at home.

Black Blade
Tuesday's Stock Market WrapUp
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

One of the ironies of the economic world was amplified in today's Senate hearings in Washington on energy. The Senate was looking into gasoline price spikes and accusing the industry of conspiring to keep gas prices high by lowering supply. Today was a perfect example of how economic illiteracy permeates much of Washington. This is the same Senate that just over a week ago vetoed a bill that would expand oil and gas exploration in Alaska on the bogus idea it would harm the environment and the Caribou. Not once in the testimony headed up by Democratic Chairman Carl Levin did the hearings touch upon the myriad of government regulations and red tape that have led us to this crisis. Nor was it ever mentioned that during the first quarter of the year refinery margins and profits fell. If the industry was gouging consumers, it certainly wasn't reflected in the industry's bottom line. Profits fell during the first quarter across all sectors of the energy business. The drop in prices occurring over the last half of 2001 was caused by a dramatic drop in the number of rigs now operating and drilling for oil and natural gas.


Black Blade: Puplava nails it. It will get worse (there's absolutely no doubt about it). Actually I think that the real sleeper is natural gas where the US has not taken the initiative to prevent a replay of the California energy crisis. All it will take is a warmer than usual summer and continued lack of production. Then � "lights out".
Black Blade
Security fears shut down 8 ChevronTexaco Nigeria oilfields
http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/world_industry_news/apr02_security.html
Snippit:

(4/30/2002 - OGI: Lagos) ChevronTexaco has closed eight of its producing oilfields in Nigeria's Imo State due to security fears following a failed negotiation with community leaders. According to reports in Nigerian newspapers, Chevron Nigeria, the ChevronTexaco operator in the country, was unable to reach a compromise with spokesmen for the local community and decided to shut down the fields to prevent damages or injuries in the event of unrest as a result of the impasse.

Black Blade: Less Oil coming to market.

Black Blade
Iran renews its call for oil embargo to support Palestinians
http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/world_industry_news/apr02_embargo2.html
Snippit:

(4/30/2002 - OGI: Cairo) Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, the Iranian Minister of Petroleum, has once again called for an embargo of oil exports to Israel and its supporters, according to IRNA, the Iranian news agency.

Zanganeh was quoted as saying such an embargo would serve as a symbolic move and be influential in relieving the suffering of the Palestinian people. He asked that both "OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries support the call for sanctions in word and deed as a humanitarian gesture."

Although only Iraq has put such an embargo into effect, Iran has called several times for a concerted action by all Muslim countries that produce oil. Earlier in the month, both Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, and Iranian President Mohammad Khatami voiced their support for suspending exports to all supporters of Israel for a symbolic period of one month.


Black Blade: Ho hum. Maybe, then again maybe not. I am watching a news-commentary show that states some members of the US administration has plans in place for an Iraqi invasion early next year. "Interesting Times"
R Powell
Blake Blade
If I recall right Odin is the father of Thor and Loki but is Odin also kin to Crom of Cimmeria?
Interesting too that none of these gods promised any kind of peace, happiness or everlasting life.
The longer I live on this earth, the stronger becomes my belief that my death will be a great blessing- mostly to myself. This is a blessing I hope to anticipate for a good deal longer.
Coveting (good religious term) gold and silver has never been restricted to any one race, religion, nationality or creed. In political terms, sort of unilaterally recognized by the believers of all the different gods and by those who believe in none.
Rich
Nomad
Oil & China

After reading the article regarding oil and China I thought some general comments my be in order :)

For those of you who don't know, I live in China. I've been here off and on for several years and been in most of the major cities. Several items that you might want to factor in :

1) Chinese cities are SMALL. Physically that is. I lived in Shanghai most of last year and I could easily ride my bicycle from the outskirts of the city to the center in about 20-25 minutes. This is a city of roughly 15 - 17 million people. The city I live in now has 5 million people (a small town by chinese stahdards :) and is about the same size the small TOWN I grew up in the midwest (pop : 15,000).

2) The vast majority of the 'rich' I know in China got that way through trade with America. This means that the Chinese economy is intimately linked with that of the USA. As a result you would be interested to know that information about the USA and it's people is in high demand here. It's one of the few places in the world Americans are stilled liked and appreciated :)

3) People who are rich enough to have cars generally do NOT use them for long distance travel. They are primarily status symbols. I took a trip a few weeks ago between two major cities with a decent highway between them and you could count the number of private cars on one hand. Most people take airplanes or use the excellent train system.

3) As a result of the above China will NEVER have a thriving auto industry, in spite of what any of the pundits say. IT IS NOT PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE to allow millions of city residents to own cars. There is no parking, there are not enough streets and already in some cities traffic jams are a big problem. And by extension, gasoline usage may rise but not to the extent all predict.

Remember this is the country that has a one child per family policy. Restricting the number of auotmobiles will be a forgone conclusion. This has already occurred in Shanghai where a fixed number of licenses are given out each month via auction. And recently, for the first time all licenses went at the minimum bid. i.e. no buyers.

China's transportation system and city layout is so good that only those 'highly' concerned with keeping up with the 'Joneses' (or Wong's in this case :) would bother getting a car. For less than $3 I can go anywhere in the city (usually it's about $1) by taxi and 12 cents by bus or trolley.

And one last thought. Because of the huge population and because of the central government planning of the last 60 or so years, the result is highly compact and EFFICIENT city layout. Thus, in the coming energy crunches (and I agree with BB, they ARE coming) China will fare well.

Unfortunately, their economic relationship is that of a symbiote (or parasite depending on your view) with the west and specifically with the US. Thus, the Chinese (and especially the Chinese workers) will suffer greatly as the USA economy slowly tanks and as a result of the WTO reforms.

Look for them to possibly take a page from Dubya's playbook and demonize outsiders to take the sheeple's minds of problems at home, especially in the time period around the full implementation of WTO (around 4 to 5 years from now).

just my 2 cents.

Nomad

Canuck
Third time in as many weeks
Where is this coming from? Strong rumour again
(322) Apr 30, 14:11

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding
gold derivative positions."

Black Blade
Crude under $27 as oil supply rises Gold futures close off less than 1% on Nymex
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B2F752866%2D5970%2D406F%2D87B5%2D20AC5D156C36%7D
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Selling pressure continued to weigh on crude futures Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a sizable build in petroleum stocks in the latest week, well above the market's expectations.

Crude slumped below $27 in overnight trading after the API reported a "huge surprise" in inventories in the latest week. The API reported a 7.6 million-barrel build in supplies vs. the expectation of a draw of 5 million barrels to a build of 1 million barrels. It was the second week in a row for the API to report a large rise in crude inventories. "This turned out to be very negative for crude," said Phil Flynn, Alaron.com's senior market analyst. "Where is all this oil coming from?"

Gasoline supplies, the API reported, fell 1.6 million barrels in the latest week. Expectations ranged from a draw of 3 million to a build of 2 million. "This is at a time when you'd like to see them build," Flynn said. "Last year, we were at 198 million barrels and now we're at 210 million barrels. That's just a 12-million barrel lead over a year ago -- one day's consumption." Refinery output rose to 95.8 percent from 92.9 percent a week ago.

In precious metals, gold futures ended lower on what market players attributed to profit taking. The June gold contract came off session lows to close at $309.20 an ounce on Nymex, down $2.30.

South Africa-based AngloGold Ltd. (AU), in reporting quarterly results earlier Tuesday, offered a relatively upbeat outlook on the pricing environment for gold, noting "a number of favorable circumstances" that have supported prices.

These include Middle East tensions, the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the euro, the South African rand and the Australian dollar, and the Japanese government's recent withdrawal of savings deposit guarantees, AngloGold said.



Black Blade: On the Oil front � OPEC producers and Russian producers have been cheating on quotas. It was inevitable and all production cut agreements have broken down in the past. Still, oil inventories are only up a mere 12 billion bbl and with refineries running at capacity � remember we were at this stage during last years energy crisis and "driving season" has not even begun yet. On the Gold front � the fundamentals are still very positive for Gold. The corporate earnings picture is extremely "grim" as earnings have failed to materialize. There are many positive earnings outlook "guidances" given by the corporate community, yet this is the same story that was given last quarter, the previous quarter, and the one before that. The strong dollar must be reined in or US manufacturers will suffer as a result and the "Bone Pile" will grow more. Foreign goods are cheaper and that will place a greater burden on US manufacturers. The US stock markets will continue to flounder. The result is less consumer confidence and a "flight to quality" � Gold.

silvester
@Canuck

Was'nt it last year about this time that we heard this? But it seems they had until the end of June and the message was delivered by him at one of his regular scheduled meetings. It could have been the year before.

What is the source this time?
Leigh
Canuck
That sounds like Bob Chapman. He's always talking about his intelligence sources.
Operative
El Nino may factor in
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/magazine/stories/mag24.htmAttn Black Blade, El Nino may be adding to the stress factor in the coming months. (Response to your earlier post,
"Black Blade: Puplava nails it. It will get worse (there's absolutely no doubt about it). Actually
I think that the real sleeper is natural gas where the US has not taken the initiative to prevent
a replay of the California energy crisis. All it will take is a warmer than usual summer and
continued lack of production. Then � "lights out"."
Bullrider
Gold Essay
Here's my latest essay which was first published earlier today at another website. Hope you find it both entertaining and informative...


Riding the Golden Bull
(and knowing when to get the hell off!)

"Do you think I�ve missed most of the run-up?" a young friend asked me the other day, referring to gold�s recent price increases.

From a big-picture perspective, the question is laughable, of course. But for those investors too young to remember the late �70s and early �80s, the question seems meaningful. After all, for them gold is a merely another metal used in crafting jewelry for body piercing. For the younger generations, gold�s use as an investment is about as meaningful as a Jennifer Lopez film: nice to look at, perhaps, but without any lasting value.

The question got me thinking, though, about what we gold and silver bugs might expect when the next true gold bull market begins. How high is high? For that matter, how do we know for certain when the bull�s run has actually begun? And, finally, what signs do we look for to clue us in on when the bull has ultimately run its course?

I�ll attempt to bring some light to these questions and some related issues. I�ll even give you a few "magic numbers" to look for when things really get moving. Because it�s important to know ahead of time approximately when you plan to exit a position. Formulating a game plan after the opening kickoff just doesn�t make much sense. It�s best to know right up front when you�ll get out.

But before I tell you about the magic numbers, let me share with you some important background information. I like to keep things really simple, so I�ll stick to the gold market�s performance over the past 25 years only. Sure, we could go back 50 or even 100 years. For that matter, we could go back to the days of ancient Egypt. But for the purposes of this article, let�s just focus on what we might call "modern" times, since our society doesn�t really bear much resemblance to that of the Pharaohs or, as far as that goes, even to the days of Lincoln or Hoover.


Of Tulips and Technology

To begin with, how do we know when a gold bull market has actually started? In answering that question, it�s important to make a crucial point and one which all precious metals investors should understand clearly: bull markets always begin for a reason (or, more likely, for several reasons). In other words, a commodity doesn�t increase drastically in price just because it appears to be undervalued. Or because it holds sentimental value (think of the poor fellow who purchased gold at $400 per ounce in the late �80s or early �90s, only to watch it languish for the next decade or more!). And it certainly doesn�t rise just because it appears inexpensive relative to its chart history.

No, my friends, gold will never rise merely because a group of diehard investors wants it to rise. It will rise in value, as all other commodities from T-Bills to tulips, from pork bellies to belly dancers, from bonds to Buicks, for one reason and one reason alone: perceived demand begins to exceed perceived supply. Until that happens, expect the price of gold to remain relatively stable and range-bound.

Why do I use the word "perceived"? Because it is the average investor�s perception that motivates him to invest (or dis-invest). When the Dutch tulip mania was unfolding, there was never an actual shortage of tulips -- only a perceived shortage. The average investor, not understanding the situation, concluded that there just weren�t enough doggoned tulips in the world, and he began paying outrageous sums of money for them. As with all manias, reality ultimately asserted itself and proved, after all, that tulips were in quite plentiful supply relative to actual demand, and the price came plummeting back to levels which few investors imagined they would ever again witness only weeks prior to the inevitable crash. (The old saying is that trees don�t grow to the sky. Evidently, this is equally true for tulips.)

We need look back no farther than 1999 and early 2000 to see a modern example of a classic mania: the now-infamous NASDAQ "bubble." Here was a situation where the perceived need far exceeded the perceived supply. To use just one example, investors (be honest now: were you one of them!?) were crawling over each other to buy up all the telecom and fiber optic companies they could identify, because everyone "knew" that there just wasn�t enough fiber in the ground. We all know now, of course, that the actual supply/demand fundamentals were a far different story. But we didn�t realize how overbought this and other tech sectors had become (unless we were members of LeMetropoleCafe!) until hundreds of billions of investor dollars had been squandered forever on various telecom, biotech and other technology-related "investments."

So what do the prices of tulips and tech stocks have to do with the present-day gold situation? Just this: as the GATA camp has been shouting from the treetops for years now, the artificial price manipulations of the gold and silver markets have given investors the perception that gold and silver supplies far exceed gold and silver demand � the exact reverse of the situation which develops in a mania. The reality is, both gold and silver usage are increasing annually while supplies are actually declining! "Holy Conspiracy, Batman! The Joker is secretly confiscating their wealth while the citizens of Gotham dance in the streets!" And before you know it, investors around the world, believing they were investing in a legitimate free market, were WHAMMed, BAMMed and KA-POWed out of their hard-earned dollars, rubles, pesos, francs and rupees.

I provide this little historical vignette only to emphasize that leverage works both ways. When demand is artificially exaggerated to the upside, the result is an unnatural swing upward in price. When that demand is artificially exaggerated to the downside, as in the present gold/silver situation, the resulting price is also exaggerated downward. But just as Nature abhors a vacuum, She also isn�t very fond of artificial imbalances. Thus, we can be all but certain that when the Gold Cartel finally loses control of its manipulation scheme, the subsequent explosion upward will likely be both drastic and violent. This never could have happened in a free market, but now that the cards have been played, there�s no pulling them off the table. And those of us who know about the Big Scam may as well profit from it.


Modern History�s Most Shining Example

Which leads me back to my original point: what are the characteristics of an emerging � and a dying � bull market in gold, and how do we make a buck or two from the historical lessons?

First, if we look back at the most famous gold bull in modern history from August 1979 to September 1980, we find that its foundation was being laid far earlier, beginning about mid-1977. To re-emphasize, bull markets happen for specific reasons, and the reasons back then were legion: economic imbalances, high unemployment, high interest rates, large trade deficits, etc. Other than the high interest rates, do any of these things ring a bell today?

We certainly don�t have to look far these days for such trigger points. Even an Enron CEO can see that sky-high consumer and corporate debt, low savings rates, high unemployment, record trade deficits, record levels of circulating paper currency (many of them experiencing frightening rates of decline in value!), and growing worldwide economic and nationalistic tensions can hardly lead to stability -- either politically or monetarily. Add to this the unnatural suppression of gold and silver prices for several years running, and you can readily see that we have a textbook recipe for both economic disaster and unprecedented profits.

Assuming, then, that the great gold bull market of �79-�80 actually began quietly igniting in mid-�77, with baseline gold prices much lower than the baseline prices of today, it doesn�t seem unreasonable to conclude that the next great bull market will last at least as long as that particular 3-year run. Moreover, assuming that the triple-bottom of early last year around the $255 mark was, indeed, the beginning of this bull run, I believe we can reasonably conclude this trend will last well into 2004 (perhaps longer) and that we ain�t seen nothin� yet!

Additionally, we can look back on our 25-year gold chart and see that, after the big selloff from the 1980 conclusion of "the big one," another bull market in gold began in mid-1982. While this one lasted only about seven or eight months, again the price increase was substantial: nearly 70% from trough to peak (just under $300 to just over $500). Can you imagine what such a move these days would do to your current precious metals portfolio!? Many gold and silver equities have risen four- to six-fold on a gold price increase of just fifty bucks!

So, do I think you�ve missed most of the run-up? Ha! That�s a good one! Did Ken Lay maximize shareholder value?!!! Are all priests celibate? Do Wall Street analysts have your best interests at heart? Will Colin Powell create peace in the mid-east? Not only have you not missed most of the run-up, the run-up hasn�t truly begun!


The Amazing Leverage of Equities

Let�s proceed on to the subsequent gold bull market after the big run-up in �82. After the price of gold again fell back to the $300 level in 1985 (are you beginning to notice that the $300 mark is gold�s modern-day floor price and not its ceiling!?) we see, once again, yet another 3-year bull market commence, beginning in March of 1985 and continuing until the end of 1987. In this impressive run, gold climbed fairly steadily and persistently until, once again, it was back to the $500 level. Another 70% climb!

Not to belabor the point, but consider how magnificently the precious metals stocks have performed in the last 12 months with gold merely rising to the pathetic $300 mark and lowly silver still below a measly five bucks! These stocks are spurting 10% a day in some cases on price moves in the metals of only 1--2%. Can you imagine what will happen when you wake up one morning and gold is up $20, $30 or even $50 an ounce! Can you imagine what the prices of these stocks will be if gold were to climb to just $500/ounce!!!???

Given the prolonged and unnatural manipulation of the gold and silver markets, it isn�t even beyond consideration that the two metals could make historic highs before the results of the artificial contortions so long imposed can finally be wrung out of the markets. While resisting the cerebrally dancing sugarplums, it�s nevertheless mouthwatering to consider the wealth-building possibilities such an historic run would create. Who knows � we might even be able to pay off our credit cards!


Dangerous Ideas that can Wipe You Out

After 1987�s stock market washout in October and the 20-year bull market in equities resumed, modern-day investors began "learning" a very dangerous concept � the myth of "buy-and-hold." In each instance, until the big POP! in the NAZ a couple of years ago, investors had, indeed, been rewarded for this long-touted strategy of Wall Street. Never mind that the Wall Street insiders have never subscribed to the buy-and-hold theory themselves. Why should they? For them, "pump-and-dump" has worked infinitely better � just ask folks like Abby Joseph Cohen and Henry Blodgett!

But the late, great bull market in equities has also persuaded most investors to adopt two other equally perilous concepts: 1) that paper currencies are actual money and 2) that gold is no longer of any value monetarily. I find it astounding that almost every generation is forced to learn anew the single outstanding lesson of economic history: nearly everything a government touches turns to sh*% -- ultimately including every paper currency in the history of this planet! You�d think after a few thousand years of clear historical evidence of this proposition that we humans would be a little more wary of trusting our future prosperity to politicians (or central bankers) of any brand!

It isn�t that I believe every politician or central banker is out to screw us. That wouldn�t be a fair assessment. But as the saying goes, it�s always the 95% of politicians that give the other 5% a bad name! It�s just that, when it comes to spending other people�s money, very few human beings are prone to wise and honorable action. It�s as if they suddenly believe they�re playing a big game of Monopoly and the money is fake (in a way, I guess it is). Soon, they�re implementing and experimenting with plans and schemes so incredibly lunkheaded that only a highly educated person -- or a bureaucrat -- could ever have thought them to be good ideas in the first place. It reminds me of the old joke about the famous last words of a redneck ("Hey, y�all, watch this!"). I swear, sometimes I wonder, as the latest political huckster stands behind the podium ranting, if these folks really believe this stuff they�re spouting, or if they�re merely trying to impress their dates.

Every time I witness a political rally with hundreds or even thousands cheering on the candidate du jour, it makes me want to grab each and every one of them by their shirts and demand to know, "What has any politician ever done to make your life better!? When did any politician ever spend your tax money in a way he would spend his own!? When has any politician in recent history ever actually reduced overall government spending, reduced the overall size of the government or actually implemented a government �of the people, by the people and for the people�!? Did the politician you cheered for in the last election do so!?" Perhaps things will change when we cease electing so many elitists and multi-millionaires to high office.


Is This "The Big One"? � Magic Numbers to Look For

But I digress. As most of you reading this article are no doubt aware, paper currency is not real money, and gold has not lost its monetary value. Given that several currencies around the globe are losing large percentages of their value even now, it certainly seems to make sense to keep some of your wealth in precious metals and related equities.

So meandering back to my original questions, how do we know when a genuine, bona fide gold bull market has begun? It�s easy to answer, "Well, silly, the price begins to rise!" But a few months of gradually rising prices does not necessarily comprise the makings of a powerful bull market! Then what else do we look for? Well, for one thing we look for the "magic numbers" I promised you earlier.

Once again, let�s take a look at our most recent modern-day examples. One of the characteristics we find when examining gold bulls over the past 25 years is that the first -- and most violent -- wave of the great �79-�80 bull market (which, you�ll recall, actually began forming in mid-�77) contained at least four subsequent monthly highs within a six-month period. These new highs need not occur in four consecutive months; they just need to occur within a six-month timeframe. In other words, after the bottom of the cycle in June of �77, there was a new high established in July, another in September, a third in October and a fourth in November. Again, I want to emphasize that this pattern applies only to the first and earliest stage of a newly forming major gold bull market (such as the one I believe we are entering right now).

Have we established four subsequent new highs within a six-month period since the triple-bottom lows last year? Let�s take a look. Since the third occurrence of those lows in April last year (around $255), a new high was established in May. A second new, subsequent high was not established until September. So even if a new high had occurred in October (which it didn�t), it wouldn�t have mattered, since it would have been only the third new high in the series and October was the six-month deadline after the first new high in May.

But what about this year? After the double-bottom lows in November and December a new monthly high was established in January (high #1); another new monthly high was established in February (high #2). No new high was established in March. Then, this month (written in late April), a third new high has been established (just last week). Now, we need only surpass it one time between May 1 and June 30 to have our fourth monthly high within six months. Remember that the first high in this series was presented to us in January, thus making June 30 the six-month deadline. Should a fourth new high occur on or before June 30, it�s a strong indication we are, indeed, in the early stages of a powerful new bull market in gold. This would apply to silver as well, since it always follows gold in the major moves.


A Rare Occurrence Happening Before Our Eyes

Just to put this rare four-highs-in-six-months phenomenon in perspective, the last time the gold market established four or more subsequent new monthly highs within six months was nearly a decade ago in 1993! Even during the buying frenzy ensuing after the announcement of the Washington Agreement, gold put in only two subsequent monthly highs before the Cartel "managed" the price back down to below even pre-Agreement levels. So, the bottom line is this: we now have two full months to establish a fourth new subsequent high above April�s final high. Don�t forget, though, that after this initial stage of the early gold bull market, this indicator becomes worthless.


How High Can Gold Fly?

Once a gold bull market gets going in earnest, it makes sense to ask the next logical question: how high is "high"? Here, we can make use of a few more additional "magic" numbers. The first is $400. Since 1989, which was the bottom of the downleg of the last great gold bull market begun in 1987, gold has met consistent resistance at, or just above, $400 per ounce. This was the case in �89, �90, �93, �94, �95 and �96. Since we now know that the Gold Cartel�s ongoing indiscretions have created serious imbalances in the gold market and that a higher-than-normal price increase is likely, we�ll assume that gold can, indeed, blow past the $400 level. If it does, the next serious resistance point is $500, as shown in �82, �83, and finally in �87 � the last time gold ever sold for $500. Since then, it hasn�t even been in the same zip code, much less in the neighborhood.

But what if there really is justice in the world and the Gold Cartel has its head handed to it on a platter? What if the price of gold really soars? Well, then, we have two more "magic" numbers to watch for. The first is $730, which represents the peak price of gold after the 50% retracement of the original tsunami wave increase, which took gold to around $875 per ounce. Should the $730 level be taken out, I suppose you could theoretically view the all-time high of $875 as "resistance," but to do so would be exactly that: mere theory. Because in today�s anything-goes, derivatives-laden, cheap-money environment, were gold to explode upward of $730 we would be navigating uncharted waters and anything would be possible.


Planning Your Exit � the Most Important Number of All

Every chess match has an endgame, of course, and the coming gold party will be no exception. Whether the gold scenario plays itself out in two years or twenty, no one can say for sure. If history is to be trusted, the fireworks display we expect will likely be drawn out over 4 to 6 years. But history rarely repeats itself. Rather, like a politician trying to rework someone else�s old material, it tends to paraphrase. No doubt this time around the market will throw in a few surprises. In any case, we�ll have to "know when to fold �em," as any good "gambler" must. Once again, thankfully, we have a "magic" number to help us determine when to scoop up our chips and leave the casino. It may be the most important "magic" number of the bunch: That number is 25%.

Let me explain. When "the Big One" hit in 1979 and took gold from about $215 to more than $850 in 12 months, there were three months (September and December �79 and January �80) when gold moved up about 25% or more in one month! These three big moves all occurred within a 5-month period. (Are you beginning to see now why Bill Murphy has so often cautioned traders in the gold market to be careful? It�s easy to get caught without a position only to watch the market skyrocket almost overnight, leaving you standing knee-deep in swamp water!).

Later, after the initial 50% retracement of the first huge run-up, gold resumed its ascent in mid-1982. Once again, this time for each of three consecutive months, gold climbed about 25% or more in only four weeks� time! That, my friends, is how you know you�re in a gen-yu-whine bull market!


Don�t Get Caught at the Top

And that, too, is how we�ll know when to get out. Because just as a charging bull knows no bounds, neither does a dying one take any prisoners. Once again referring to the 25-year gold chart, we see that once gold made its initial stunning ascent to the $875 level, it promptly began declining at equally breathtaking rates. Even bull markets in gold have their share of greater fools, and once all the fools had bought at $800 and above expecting gold to proceed on to $1,000, they were promptly slaughtered in the ensuing decline! (Anyone buying in right now won�t lose money in such a scenario, of course; but you could certainly risk forfeiting the bulk of your profits.)

Notice that gold opened in January 1980 at roughly $565, climbed in stellar fashion to the peak at $875 (a stunning 55% increase in less than one month!) and then immediately began plummeting. It closed the month at $680 (a 22% decline in just a few days!), and less than eight weeks later was back down to $450 (an additional 34% decline). For those who bought at the top, nearly half their wealth had disappeared (or perhaps more than half if they were leveraged) � all in fewer than 90 days!

The point is, the first time you see a 25% (or greater) decline after a serious bull run has unfolded, begin protecting your positions. For those bolder investors who are willing to take the chance, it is possible to wait out a decline and hope to get out on the 50% retracement back up. But while they did indeed take place in the bull markets we�re studying, such retracements are only theoretical, and there�s no guarantee they�ll happen. I suspect there are plenty of Lucent, Global Crossing, Enron, and millions of other high-tech investors waiting for 50% retracements that never happened � and never will!

To put the 25% number in perspective, were gold to decline 25% from
Black Blade
Re: R Powell � My Gods

Odin

Odin - Leader of the Aesir. Odin had a myriad of names including Allfather, Ygg, Bolverk [evil doer], and Grimnir. He also had many functions including being a god of war, poetry, wisdom, and death. His halls were called Gladsheim Valaskjalf and Valhalla. Odin's high seat, Hlidskialf, was in Valaskjalf. It was from this throne that he could see over all the world. Valhalla is where he gathered his portion of the slain warriors, Einheriar, whom the valkyries had chosen.

The valkyries would serve mead which forever flowed from the udder of Odin's goat, Heidrun. They also served the warriors meat that came from the boar Saehrimnir, which the cook Andhrimnir would prepare for eating by boiling it in the cauldron Eldhrimnir. The boar magically came back to life before the next meal. After eating, the warriors would go outside the hall and fight each other to the death. They were, of course, brought back to life before the next feast. All of this fighting was practice for when Odin would lead the Einheriar in the final battle, Ragnarok.

Odin had a spear named Grungir which never missed its mark and a bow which unleashed ten arrows with every pull. He also owned a magic ring called Draupnir which created nine of itself every night. It was this ring that Odin laid on his son Balder's funeral pyre and which Balder returned to Odin from the underworld. Another one of Odin's prized possesions was his wonderful steed named Sleipnir which had eight legs.

The horse was the offspring of Loki, who in mare form seduced a giant's horse named Svadilfari. Sleipnir could travel to the underworld and through the air. Odin also had two wolves, Geri and Freki, and two ravens, Hugin [thought] and Munin [memory]. He sent his ravens out every day to gather knowledge for him.

Odin sacrificed himself for knowledge by hanging on the world tree, Yggdrasil, which means Ygg's horse. Ygg is a name for Odin and horse is a metaphor for the gallows. He thereby learns the runes. Another sacrifice he made for wisdom was his eye. He gave it up in order to drink from the Well of Mimir which bestowed great knowledge. Because of this, he is typically depicted as having one eye. He is also depicted as wearing a cloak, being old, having a long grey beard, and wearing a wide brimmed hat down low over his face to conceal his one-eyed visage.

Odin was destined to die at Ragnarok; Fenris-Wolf swallowed him. Knowing his fate, he still chose to embrace it and do battle. Showing the true warrior ethic. He was the god of warriors and kings, not the common man. Many heroes genealogies start with Odin, including Sigurd. His name is not found in many place names and therefore it is believed that not many people worshipped him. He was thought to be a traitorous god, as shown in the sagas, who would strike down a warrior at his whim.

Loki

Loki - is a giant. He became a member of the Aesir when Odin made Loki his blood brother. He is the god of mischief, a trickster, and very cunning. After causing the death of Balder, he was bound by the gods until the Ragnarok, at which time, he will be freed.

Thor

Thor - the son of Odin and a member of the Aesir, he was the god of thunder and the main enemy of the giants. He would smash their heads with his mighty hammer Mjollnir. To wield this awesome weapon he needed iron gloves and a belt of strength. Mjollnir would return to Thor's hand after being thrown and was symbolic of lightning. Thor would ride around middle-earth in his wagon drawn by two goats, His abode was Thruthheim [Land of Strength] and his hall, Bilskinir. His wife was Sif.

He was foremost of the gods to the common man, who would call on him to ensure fertility, and widely worshiped. Hammer shaped amulets, a symbol of Thor because it was his weapon, were worn about the neck well into the christianization of Scandinavia. There are molds from that time which contain both cross and hammer shapes, side by side. His name occurs in numerous place names, and it was his statue which was central in the great temple at Uppsala. Thursday is named for him and he was associated by the Romans with Jupiter. Donar was an early version of Thor among the early Germans. The anglo-saxons worshiped a thunder god named Thunor.


My favorite: Aegir

Aegir - The meaning of his name is associated with water. He was also called Hler and Gymir [the Blinder] (the name of Gerd's father -- it is not known if they are one and the same). Aegir was the god of the seashore or ocean, and called the ruler of the sea by Snorri. He was a personification of the ocean, be it good or evil. Aegir was one of the Vanir and a giant.

Aegir brewed ale for the gods after Thor brought him a big enough kettle. Every winter the gods would drink beer at Aegir's home. He was, therefore, famed for his hospitality. Instead of having a fire, gold was put onto the floor of the hall to provide light. Gold is therefore called Aegir's fire. The cups in Aegir's hall were always full, magically refilling themselves. Aegir had two servants in his hall, Fimafeng [Handy] and Eldir [Fire-Kindler]. According to Lee Hollander, Aegir's function as the gods' ale brewer was suggested by the ocean's foam.



And so these are some of my Gods. I can't speak to Crom (although I think that Arnold Schwartzenegger may have mentioned him). Now I shall grab a horn of ale. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Cavan Man
Canuck
That quote is one year old. Don't take your eye off the ball.
Nomad
Communism
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/01/international/asia/01CHIN.html
For those interested, this is as accurate as anything I have read about the state of Communism on China. Especially the part about people looking at you weird ...

(you'll need to register I think)

Nomad
Operative
Refreasher on Saudi Oil
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=27445Snip:
"The Saudi government needs
cash, and needs it fast.
Economic growth has not
kept up with population
growth over the last decade.
The result is plummeting per
capita income, around $7,000
today compared to $25,000 in
the mid-1970s.
Unemployment has grown
along with social discontent.

Oil revenues supply more
than 75 percent of the Saudi
budget � which is focused on
placating the public with jobs
and services � and the
government issues debt to
cover any shortfalls. Over 55
percent, or $114 million, of
the 2000 budget was spent on
salaries for government
employees. Millions more are
spent on healthcare,
infrastructure and free
education. The Saudi
government must also spend
tens of millions to buy
support from the scheming
uncles and power-hungry
cousins within the fractious
royal family. "
YGM
@ Pizz.....& Black Blade.....
Thanks....Pizz...
Your explanation tho basic (simplified for the likes of myself :>)) was very understandable....AND 3 for 3 seems very possible seeing all three have direct correlation to each other....Dominoes anyone! Thanks again.


BB...You've made me want to explore further your Nordic Gods & legends. Also 1/2 of my descent. Does that account for my preoccupation with Gold, Grog, Women, Adventure and
the High Seas for most of my life?? Maybe there's a little Viking ancestry in us all!.......YGM.
Rocketman
Bullrider & your gold essay

Thank you, Bullrider, for your interesting essay! I appreciate your insights though I'm not sure I'll be able to part with my gold when if as you say many more pieces of paper called dollars will one day be required for each piece of gold.

Gold is much more to me than pretty yellow pieces of metal to look at. It represents what is just true and right while paper currencies are critical tools governments use to disposess and control their own people. Paper currencies are part of the greed/theft game whereby the sheeple think they will gain more than they loose.

It is with government backed paper currencies (the lure of easy money) that the enslaving ring is deftly hooked into our noses, and the masses are led about, allowing our lifes to be slowly traded for money which in turn is devalued.

Slavery used to be more honest. A person was actually physically taken. Now thinking we are free, we voluntarily trade our lives for pieces of paper (money) from which the value is slowly squeezed out. In essence we become voluntary slaves. Or perhaps some of you like paying taxes and having your hard earned savings devalued.

Gold is more than a pretty yellow trinket. It is the store of wealth of all freemen and I won't volunarily trade mine for paper.

Rockgrabber
Operative (post # 746540
I believe Saudi Arabia has seen this all coming for some time. With all the physical gold they have, why not make what they have been saving what its worth and then some? Rip up the paper markets. Their wealth that they have collected for their gold will be made known. Then we will see just how costly this oil we have been using really is. I think their dependency on our dollar has been great, but is being made less everyday. With the Euro as an alternitive, and good support from its creator, might as well cash in their paper dollars for paper Euros. Allow China cheap oil, to devolop a dependency now. Do it by cutting oil production to the west. That will only do good things for Saudi Arabia. They dont have to have their dollars, matter of fact they are better off by cutting dollar ties and sending inflation soaring out west. Their Gold that they have been collecting will be valued so high that they will be very mighty and proud. Just thoughts.
YGM
More Tightening of Credit....
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC05/01 00:11
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years
By George Stein


New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks have been hitting the brakes on loans to companies harder than at any time in at least three decades, tightening standards and refusing to finance businesses that don't retain them for other services.

Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and others loaned companies $1.02 trillion during the first quarter, down 7.4 percent from the first three months of 2001, according to U.S. Federal Reserve figures. The decrease followed a 6 percent year-over-year drop in loans to U.S. companies in last year's fourth quarter.

**Cont'd @ Link....
YGM
Risk Based Capital, OCC Bulletin.....From 100% to 20% w/ new Qualifications.
http://www.occ.treas.gov./ftp/bulletin/2002-13.txtExcerpt...

OCC 2002-13
OCC Bulletin
Subject: Risk-Based Capital
Description: Final Rule
Date: April 9, 2002

TO: Chief Executive Officers of All National Banks,
Department and Division Heads, and All Examining
Personnel

PURPOSE

This bulletin transmits the final rule, "Risk-Based
Capital Standards: Claims on Securities Firms" that was
published in the Federal Register on April 9, 2002. The
rule permits banks to reduce the risk weight on certain
claims against qualifying securities firms from 100
percent to 20 percent.

Cont'd @ Link.....

YGM
OCC, Derivatives Report 4th Q /01
http://www.occ.treas.gov/query/oop/qfullhit.htw?CiWebHitsFile=/ftp/release/2002%2D19.doc&CiRestriction=%20Derivatives%20Report%20&CiQueryFile=/query.idq&CiBeginHilite=%3CB%20CLASS=HIT%3E&CiEndHilite=%3C/B%3E&CiUserParam3=queryhit.htm&CiHiliteType=Full#CiTag0Noteworthy Excerpt...

O NEWS RELEASE Comptroller of the Currency Administrator of National Banks,NR 2002-19,, FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Kevin Mukri March 7, 2002 (202) 874-5770 OCC Reports Derivatives Volume Falls Below $50 Trillion WASHINGTON -- U.S. commercial banks saw earnings from cash instruments and derivatives activities drop $805 million, to $2.65 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2001, while the notional value of derivatives fell by $5.9 trillion, to $45.4 trillion. The drop in the notional value of derivatives from the previous three months was attributable to the merger of Chase Manhattan Bank and Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. Despite the elimination of contracts between those two large institutions, derivatives activities at U.S. banks rose slightly during the quarter, said Michael L. Brosnan, the OCC's Deputy Comptroller for Risk Evaluation. "The notional volumes at the other U.S. banks engaged in derivatives transactions increased $1 trillion during the quarter, reflecting the continued interest by customers of banks in risk management products," Mr. Brosnan said. In its fourth quarter report on bank derivatives, which was released today, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency noted that while the notional amount of derivatives is a reasonable reflection of business activity, it is not an amount at risk. The risk in a derivatives contract is a function of a number of variables, such as whether counterparties exchange notional principal, the volatility of the currencies or interest rates used as the basis for determining contract payments, the maturity and liquidity of contracts, and the creditworthiness of the counterparties in the transaction.

Noteworty Excerpt...

Total credit exposures for the top seven banks decreased to 158 percent of risk-based capital in the fourth quarter of 2001 from 322 percent in the third quarter. "The significant decline in notional volumes was the primary reason that current mark-to-market -more- exposure declined $19 billion and potential future exposure decreased $58 billion," Mr. Brosnan said. During the fourth quarter of 2001, banks charged-off $296 million from credit exposures associated with derivatives. "We expected charge-offs to begin to rise as the downturn translated into corporate bankruptcies and defaults," Mr. Brosnan said. "Most large companies use derivatives, so even though banks have collateral on lower rated exposures, the probability for charge-offs increases during economic downturns.

Noteworthy Excerpt...

The top seven commercial banks engaged in derivatives trading account for 96 percent of the total notional amount of derivatives in the commercial banking system, with more than 99 percent held by the top 25 banks.

Complete copy @ Link....
compwiz4u
The idea is to create wealth not paper profits.
http://www.compwiz4u.com/images/gold.gifThanks for noticing my first post Mr. Gresham.
It's nice to be recognized when you enter a group.
What a rush this past week was, huh? This week's pullback is to be expected, however depressing it may feel.

I'm really enjoying these exhilarating up moves, especially now that we've broken through some major resistance at $305-310 with $300 proving it is now a support level for Gold.

This time sure looks and feels differently, as the mining shares� expected price corrections are shallow and don't last long. Looking at their charts, it appears they are starting to go parabolic, as trend lines are getting steeper. A good example is Gold Fields, Ltd. (See Above link) It just shot through major resistance at 10 in a parabolic rise with short, shallow corrections as it broke through a 14-year downtrend.

I think we can forget most technical analysis tools now, as I believe a paradigm shift is occurring.

Aside from the nice technical breakout, I have a few reasons why I like Gold Fields.

Of course, most of us know they have good management, superlative assets & a decent dividend, but in the coming bull market, Gold Fields should be piling up incredible earnings and their dividend payout will be huge. On their Website, goldfields.co.za, they state: "It is the company's policy to pay around 50 per cent of its cash earnings as dividends." Therefore, you should get all your investment back in dividends before too long and you'll still own the stock. Finally, their listing on the NYSE as GFI, starting today, will put them among the elite and increase their liquidity and visibility immensely.
Of course, there are many other excellent miners like GG, MDG, & AEM, but GFI is my favorite.

There are so many short and long-term social and economic trends in gold's favor now that it seems like GFI and other miners are sure bets. However, we have to be careful of governmental intervention at some point. We must be sure to take profits along the way, but not too early. Set some goals and stick to them. Don't get greedy expecting even higher prices the next day as they may evaporate as Bullrider (04/30/02; 20:40:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74649) stated in his Gold Essay about the end of the 1980 move. Use logic, not emotion. The idea is to create wealth not paper profits. The toughest part will be knowing when to sell, so plan now.

I dread the thought of an excess profits tax on the miners or a mine buyout by the US or other governments as their needs for real currency will be enormous with the coming depression. What would that do to your planned profits? As Bill Buckler says as a prelude to his excellent weekly Gold Commentary at the-privateer.com: "In any discussion of the future of Gold, or of the price of Gold, the first thing that must be realized is that Gold is a political metal."

If you take Bullrider's essay to its logical extreme, we could see a similar 25-fold increase from last year's $255 to $6,375 an ounce sometime this decade. After all, it went from the fixed price of $35 an ounce to $875 in 1980, if only for a moment.

The system is bankrupt so anything is possible.

Finally, I thank God for the internet, which at little or no cost, has allowed us to gather thoughts from the best minds in the world, research many government documents and bring us to the point where we can see what is actually occurring to the world's financial system. If we are wise, we can take advantage of that knowledge.

(Thanks to bigcharts.com for the GOLD chart.)

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