USAGOLD Discussion - May 2002

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Usul
(05/01/2002; 01:23:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74662)
The growing property bubble
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,2-284073,00.htmlIn 1977: bought for �12,500
Estate agents now value the property at �250,000.
Knallgold
(05/01/2002; 01:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74663)
@IGWA
"In France, there are great concerns about North African black migrants who integrated into French society, and are now DIS-integrating from society as they take up radical Islam."

A reason why LePen got that much votes.The politicians should finally accept that there is an immigration problem in Europe and act accordingly.Not keep their heads in the sand any longer.And call them warners all racists etc.,the socialists famous fascism-cudgel.

Thank you IGWA for your post.For some reason the (NWO)establishment wants to keep this debate totally suppressed.

ME: maybe you know of the old/new links and friendship between the left terrorists (RAF etc.) and palestinian terrorists.

As a Swiss,I am naturally "neutral" (even though our governement calls us supporters of this old value now parasites,not solidaric with the world).But I know whom I should help in the ME conflict.
Usul
(05/01/2002; 01:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 74664)
Far north's gold fever
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,4235904%255E462,00.htmlThey are drilling a 1000m deep hole- just to see what's there.

Such a lot of effort to dig up a "barbarous relic"!

This phrase was used by John Maynard Keynes in his 1923 book: "A Tract on Monetary Reform".

http://www.usagold.com/NewGoldMarket.html

His argument was "that the gold standard after World War I was nothing like the gold standard of earlier years"-

http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/cema2000.html

- and that "the stability of gold now depended increasingly on the policies of a few central banks"

Perhaps it still does... for as long as they have the upper hand. Have I not heard that there is a structural deficit in the supply and demand of gold, and that the demand is only met by the dishoarding of official gold? The blip up in price at the announcement of the Washington Agreement testifies to their influence.

Sometimes, there comes a drought of such magnitude to make ground thirsty for water that can no longer be slaked by its rivers. Then the inhabitants of that great inland desert will pay the "going rate" for their water!
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 04:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74665)
Mega-Hedger Barrick 1Q earnings fall on lower sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020501/minerals_barrick_earns_1.html
Snippit:

TORONTO, May 1 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (Toronto:ABX.TO), the world's second-biggest gold producer, said on Wednesday its first-quarter earnings fell as declining gold sales failed to offset a higher average realised gold price. Barrick, which has extensive gold properties in North America, South America, Africa and Australia, reported earnings of $46 million, or 9 cents a share, for the period ended March 31, down from $87 million, or 16 cents a share, for the same period a year earlier. This lagged the expectations of 13 analysts polled by Thomson Financial/First Call, who had forecast earnings in a range between 11 cents and 14 cents, with a consensus earnings estimate of 12 cents.


Black Blade: Lowered earnings and they didn't even make the lowered earnings estimates. Hmmm�
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 04:26:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74666)
Gold To Consolidate Before Trying $325/0z
Gold To Consolidate Before Trying $325/0z In Late '02-CBA

SYDNEY , May 1 (Dow Jones) - Gold is likely to take a breather after its rally late last week before a brief push to US$325 a troy ounce in the second half of calendar 2002, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said Wednesday in its monthly precious metals report.

The report also noted improved fundamentals for gold, as the past month's rally to decisively break the US$300/oz mark had little to do with short covering, which the bank said was the key factor in previous rallies above US$ 300/oz in recent years....


Black Blade: Whaddya know, and after they sold off all the bank's Gold a couple of years back. Trying to keep up with the Brits I guess. Hmmm�
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 04:38:15 MDT - Msg ID: 74667)
Austria gold coins sell briskly in Japan
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/020430/kyodo/d7j7e71o0.html
Snippit:

Austrian gold coins featuring the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra have been selling in record volume in Japan after Japanese maestro Seiji Ozawa conducted the New Year concert in Vienna on Jan. 2. According to Austrian Mint officials, 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) of the gold coins were sold in Japan from January to April, five times the volume in the same period last year. The volume of Austrian gold coins sold in Japan in the four months has already exceeded the entire foreign sale last year, they say.


Black Blade: Japanese sales are still booming!


Whoa! This is not good! Mega-Hedger Barrick's earnings of 9 cents a share are only "operating earnings" and not "net earnings"! I smell trouble!!!
Canuck
(05/01/2002; 05:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74668)
@ Cavan Man
Thanks.

I hate virtuous circles!
Pizz
(05/01/2002; 06:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74669)
Black Blade
Re: Barrick Earnings

Nothing to stop a company from underreporting earnings from the accounting profession. Conservative accounting to take the heat off gold shares to take some heat off spot, therefore their hedgebook???

Was that your hmmmm.. or just the fact that they're hedgers?

Pizz
Mr Gresham
(05/01/2002; 07:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74670)
Morning Wake-Up Apology
I know there were several posts addressed (at least partly) to me that whizzed by in the past week. I couldn't come back to them (at least I got to scan the Forum that day) and probably won't be able to do them justice in near future -- so that's probably just water under bridge. Sorry for that, and other past ones I might have missed altogether!

I think it's important that we respond to each other ('s non-argumentative posts) here, as that's what brings out the best in any forum -- when you know that someone is at least listening.

It seems some busy days we have the choice of (1) reading without being able to comment on all the good ideas just read, (2) posting without reading (huh? what's THAT about?), or (3) reading down from the top far enough to find something provocative (+ or -) and respond to that. None very satisfying, but necessary when you want to "have a life" elsewhere.

This is just to let you know that I can't stand the thought of missing something good, so I'll at least dip into just about every post (obsessive-compulsive?) to see if it grabs me. Even after eyes and brain have just about stopped functioning at day's end, gotta have my fix!

Just knowing that good minds are catching, sorting, and filtering the day's events does it for me. Thank you!
Econoclast
(05/01/2002; 07:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74671)
"GoldTrust Receipts" are made of paper, No?
The second half of this year is going to be Very Interesting! The "prescription" for the economy is going to be higher interest rates, but how can the FED do that without blowing up the derivative books of the banks?
Policy/management is going into uncharted territory. Isn't gold for protection during those "uncertain" times?
Mr Gresham
(05/01/2002; 07:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74672)
Dip Day?
Oh, and I was going to propose (semi-humorously?), if we're not about to take up a Spike Day contest, how about a Dip Day one? Or, more to my interest, what price level of the current or next dip do YOU think will be the take-off bottom for the next wave up? And what dip level would interest YOU in breaking open that piggybank (college savings fund, Savings Bonds tucked away, etc.) for another allocation AU-ward?

Interesting that the commentaries in the financial world now speak with such confident inevitability about a "push to US$325" this year, conceding a rate of return more than 10% annually going forward. (If it goes up 20%, they feel they'll have been covered by their milder positive prediction.)

If any financial advisor had what they believed was a nearly-guaranteed 10% return before them, on ANY item, could they neglect to put it before a client for consideration? Especially since the world's stocks in general would have to be considered at best a neutral near-term choice.

But they're commenting on this so off-handedly, as if this was just detached predicting or news-watching, and not something to be acted upon for one's long-term financial well-being. Perhaps it's the parallel "other story" that goes along with it, that everyone's soft-pedaling: the likely/possible/potential Dollar breakdown, and world system lockup possibly resulting from it. (Physical gold is the REMOVAL of monetary value from the banks playful hands!) Maybe they can only "break it to us gently" as we the public awake from our "Quickened" dreams of life on Easy Street in early retirement.
YGM
(05/01/2002; 08:03:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74673)
The Poor old Canadian Peso.....
It's Our Government That's 'Looney'......Canada sold 95,000 ounces in Feb./02 and has 1 million left of a total of 22 million ounces in 1979. Believe it or not, we wonder why our dollar is worth 62 cents U.S. At one time the Canadian dollar was worth more than the U.S., but now with US T-Bills and other US Paper Promisary Notes as backing for our currency we have little hope of seeing the strength of a realistic Canadian $ that we had in the 1970's.....Ahhh the power of the Banking Octopus and it's stealthy far reaching theft of Nations.......Not much left to take after all they own most of the land/property by way of Collateral Loans.......Peasants and Peons in our own lands.......YGM.
Econoclast
(05/01/2002; 08:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74674)
I was struck with a thought while thinking on this statement
Physical gold is the REMOVAL of monetary value from the banks playful hands?If I trade a dollar for physical gold, now I have privacy for the wealth represented by that dollar, safety for it, security for it. On top of all that, I believe that it is the investment of a lifetime right now.
But follow that dollar. It went to Mr Kosares' firm. From there to his supplier (a bullion bank?) From there to either a central bank, a goldmine, or someone else who sold their gold. From there, continually onwards and outwards. That dollar is still sloshing around somewhere representing a liability owned by the FED.
Where am I going with this? I'm not sure. But it seems like I received the primary benefit out of the whole thing.
YGM
(05/01/2002; 08:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74675)
Mr. Gresham
Dip Day...Could it be that we've already passed it :>)

Terrible tuesday for the shorts?......YGM
Pizz
(05/01/2002; 08:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 74676)
YGM
RE: Canadian Peso

Sell a little gold, prop up the "peso" a bit and tread water til the US buck catches "down" with your "peso".

Then we can have the loonie greenback as the new North Amercian fiat. Sounds a bit like a new species of waterfoul. Ought to make the environmentalists happy, and at least that might be one voting block for the new protected species.

Pizz
YGM
(05/01/2002; 08:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74677)
What's up w/ Spot?
Watching Bullion Desk Link...Spots jumping around like a cat w/ turpentine on it's butt.
+1.50, -.20, +1.20, -.10, +1.30, -.20, +1.10 looks like the buyers are given em hell in the pits.....YGM
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(05/01/2002; 08:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74678)
"Quietly, Happy Gold Investors" Assess Future ProspectsNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

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"For more than 2000 years gold was viewed by generation after generation as a safe haven in times of crises. Gold was an insurance asset, in fact, formuch of the time the only insurance asset. 2000 years\of history is not wiped out within two decades. This wave of global prosperity cannot continue forever, andI believe, history is busy proving that right now as we speak."
- - - - - - Ian Cockerill, CEO, GoldFields

Gold Market Brief (5/1/02) . . . Gold inched forward in New York this morning after a relatively quiet night overseas. There are reports of renewed physical buying in Japan and bank covering in Europe -- and this is kind of steady supplort that some analysts claim has put a floor under the gold market. Gold has eased back a little in recent days in concert with reduced tensions in the Middle East, but the pullback has been less than what the bears had anticipated. "Gold still looks like it's breaking out of formation and still showing surprising strength," Alaron's Phil Flynn told CBS Marketwatch. "People are going to more traditional investments on concern in the stock markets." The safe-haven metal has enjoyed something of a resurgence over the past several weeks in response to tensions in the Middle East, strong Japanese buying, bullion bank and mine company covering, and a general sense that world equities markets still have their worst days ahead (the DJIA is down 95 as we go to fetch this over to the server). The dollar, which had experienced a selloff last week, seems to have stabilized for the moment but doubts have begun to surface about the long term despite repeated comments from the U.S. Treasury Department that the strong dollar policy is still in force. The markets do not appear to be convinced. Reuters reports that "the dollar appeared to have stemmed its fall by Wednesday, but hard-hitting liquidation in gold was unlikely." Reuters quoted one trader as saying "Most people are long in gold but they're long at lower levels, so there is no panic around in either gold or silver. People are just sitting there quietly happy." So to all the happy gold owners, I bid you good day. See you back here Friday.. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .MORE (See above for access to the full Briefing)
______________________
Michael J. Kosares is the author ofThe ABCs of Gold Investing: Preserving Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership, editor of NEWS & VIEWS: A Quarterly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals, and president of USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. He has nearly 30 years experience in the gold business. He also writes these (almost) daily reports and commentaries.

RobotGuy
(05/01/2002; 09:57:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74679)
GO LOOOOONIEEEEEE!!!
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/01/2002; 10:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74680)
Like Nitro on a hot sunny day.
If Newmont closes above $30 today. That has the psychological impact of a cinderblock falling off a skyscraper and crashing into a CEO's Mercades. So where is the rally in the Diamonds, Ques and Spiders? This is not your fine house. This is not your beautiful wife. How did you get here?

"Hey boys how about we take out some of the liquidity out of this market before we can't sell a share. We'll blink around the bid and say quiet prayers over the ask."

Darth Vader is back and the Jedi bulls forgot their flashlights. Dumb jedi, go back to the desert and eat porrige. Luke, the force isn't with you. Newmont is becoming Mount McKinley. Dig a small hole and try to climb in.
The CoinGuy
(05/01/2002; 10:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74681)
All
http://www.mrci.com/qpday.aspThe dollar is looking extremely ugly on the intraday chart.

The CoinGuy
YGM
(05/01/2002; 10:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74682)
Printing Press Mania....
Poor old Alan......Greenie running those presses creating more toilet paper from 'Airy Nothing' for so many years is probably sweating bullets right now. Him and many more I suspect. The paper of yesterday is tomorrows firestarter.....Dump paper & buy some of MK's beautiful coins, before your buying power dwindles like the Loonie.....*If I knew then what I know now, I'd have twice as much of the Yellow stuff.....(Voiced by many Canadians)*
sourdough
(05/01/2002; 11:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74683)
Black Blade (05/01/02; 04:17:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74665)
Concerning Barrick.
A few years ago TRIZEC HAHN secured a loan that I believe was (backed)convertible into Barrick shares somewhere around the 30/31 dollar range. I forget exactly how many shares was involved but I think it was "many millions of shares.
At the time I thought it was probably organized by J.P. MORGAN because they had a board member and connections with Trizec Hawn.
I saw a release yesterday that a reorganization had taken place a Trizec Hawn (having not followed the company, I was at a loss to what they have done).
The question I have: WHAT IS THE SITUATION REGARDING THIS CONVERTIBLE LOAN? I always wondered, although it appeared that TRIZEC and Munk appeared to exert control over Barrick,If in reality, a great deal of that control was actually held by those bondholders. I tried at the time to find out from Barrick who held them, but that was a dead end.
Anybody up on these bonds?
sourdough
(05/01/2002; 11:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74684)
Concerning Barrick
Follow up.
I think "oli" moved up in Barrick at around the same time.
The "angle" I was trying to research back then, was the possibility that Munk and his group, Bush,Mulroney, etc. had sold their souls and the gold industry, in return for Trizec access to cheap money, and access to perhaps government and/or big financial entity leases for their buildings.
If a large entity gave notice they would not be renewing their leases on certain buildings, the owners might sell them at a discount. Then Trizec with money and a promise that "lucrative leases would be forthcoming under Trizac ownership, would be to great a temptation for Munks TRIZEC HAWN. If the governments and big banks were interested in manipulating gold prices through Barrick hedging, this could be the link.
I could never find a link for the building/lease angle, but that sure doesn`t mean there is not one.
I think it would be a great project for a financial investigative reporter,time has passed and the trail might be a little clearer. Is there any here?
Belgian
(05/01/2002; 12:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74685)
Gold Wars....
Sir Lips Ferdinand signaled record interest in his book : Number 44 out of 3 million at amazon.com ! Congrats to you Sir.

In the mean time, the UN-free press (media) and analysts (gold-authorities) continue quessing the future price (not Value) of Un-free Gold, during its raging war !?
The present POG compensation for dollar decline is mediaticaly explained by the goldminer's declining hedging !
No, no POG is not rising because the dollar has changed trend...nonooooo ! And goldbugs must already be *pre-conditoned* with a POG stabilizing at the preset number of 325$. This corresponds with an oxygenated dollar level that "they" want to reach with "the" management.

And surprise'surprise...325$ is a very visible and important TA-TI point ! Oh boy what a lot of co-incidences !

Conclusion : Gold is on its way to heaven. No matter what levels or targets are fixed on the program of any anti-gold warrior . No matter how much different coctails of derivatives there are out there. No matter if or not these derivatives can be unwinded/untangled orderly or not. One day any kind of gold- management (enforced or not) will have to abondened when the ship (dollar-debt) capsizes and makes plent of water.

Those who turn their backs to the different aspects of this growing Big Brother world and are strong enough to remain FREE individuals...will keep on accumulating GOLD !
Sir Gresham, I strongly suspect you are also one of these Freedom lovers and hesitate / doubt as to find the right moment for having excess paper exchanged for the precious.
I've done so almost completely for myself. The only paper left is for settlement of daily expenses and enjoyment of some materialistic aspects of life.

On BBC hardtalk (tele) today, the Italian representative of the triumvirate (Belgium/France/Italy) preparing an Euroland constitution...was enlightening. Giscard d'Estaing (France) is an aristocrat and a passionate french world citizen. Euroland is fully engaged in the competitive run for ...alternative supremacy and UK fully EMU integrated is
part of a big jump forward. Another 10 countries out of 25 must join EMU as soon as possible (2003/2004) before the present 12 nucleus has run too far away. Always take into consideration that the fundamental of this Euroland expansion is the euro ! And euro is antipode of the dollar, in itself the worst enemy of GOLD ! The political unity of Euroland is NOT an absolute priority. We will agree to agree on a minimum minimorum. The euro-stability is the one and only basis (first half decade) for ensuring progress and prevent failure. Any Euroland failure would be a disaster. This places the US for a very difficult dilemma analog to what happened in 1940/45 .

This very, very fundamental aspect has been communicated by us through A/FOA in exclusivity and for free. It is the one and only explanation *why* Gold is behaving and has behaved as such. UNFREE GOLD serving two masters (dollar/euro) with a different timetable / agenda and manoevered into a condition where both have no point of return.

Under these conditions, GOLD prefers to remain "low profile" for as long as possible. Never tell the full truth and the real reasons behind any great story. Gold was/is and will remain *exclusive* ! It is the currencies that will be affected and be spotlighted for everyone to see.
I'll stubbornly repeat that there is not enough Gold for balanced and proportionate distribution. It would become so enormously Valued (in currency prices) that new imbalances would arise. That's why it will be managed as a reserve with a certain limit in its importance. So far a reasonable solution to avoid total and destructive collapse. Once Gold will be Valued into the many thousands...it will become automatically and unfortunately out of reach for a large majority of people. New candidate owners that is.

Why talk today, about Gold Valued into the thousands when the present rise from 253$ to 312$ is only a ridicule 20% ?
Because I do personally believe that we will never see 250$ never again as I (myself) will never be 20 years young and Gold is aging / riping for its permanent rise to heaven.
And yes indeed, I'm told never to say never. Than let me put it this way : If Gold crashes under 250$/200$...Euroland will have failed ! But it can't and will not fail ! Brrrrr.

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(05/01/2002; 12:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74686)
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miner49er
(05/01/2002; 13:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74687)
Econoclast @74671 - the Big One...
My grip is surely slipping, I think I've lost my hold... yes I think I've lost my hold,
I cannot get insurance anymore... they don't take credit on the gold...

Peter Gabriel - Blood of Eden (I know he wasn't thinking about this kind of stuff, but weirdly enough, it sure fits...)

Your mention of derivatives going kabloom... Was just thinking about that myself, earlier. The expected prescription is, of course, to raise rates. Yet as you correctly point out, the derivative books are all crying for mercy, "just a little bit lower, just a little bit longer..." And as long as the spin can convince enough people that inflation is being contained, and that things are gonna turn around any day now, the Fed can play this put-it-off-'til-tomorrow game.

Yet, not only of course, are there derivatives issues, but as we've discussed here ad nauseum, there is the issue of looming and very bad debt, en masse, whose repercussions throughout the system leave the U.S. most likely to just make the books balance, and print whatever is necessary to do that. This, opposed to the classical prescription of permitting contractionary forces to do their cleanup work (of which higher rates are typically a major component).

Those who frequent here have a pretty good handle of what the arguments are surrounding why the classical methods won't work this time, whether they agree or not. But the general public, and the officials they elect, essentially have only this level of understanding, and usually an inaccurate and superficial appreciation of the dynamics at play, to begin with.

As such, once inflation begins to be truly felt, and persistent, the pressure will be on for the Fed to explain why it is not raising rates. It finds itself in the economist's endless dilemma of trying to "'splain it." Never mind any potential illicit behavior, the task of making people, on a large scale, understand the sordid maze of dynamics involved in few words, is next to impossible.

The dilemma is this: With a "hard" science, like physics, or neurology, people are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the experts, because they accept their own ignorance in the field, appreciating the complexity of the discipline. With the "soft" science of economics (like religion, philosophy and sports), everybody thinks they know it all, just because they read a "how the economy works" sidebar in USA Today once.

As long as confidence in the priests of this bestial religion is sustained, Fed heads, and other members of the mumbling class, can say pretty much whatever, and people just nod their tacit approval, letting others do the job of interpreting the entrails.

When things go south, people want clear, concise, sound-bite answers. And they want them now. This requires a communication's savvy that scarcely anyone (self-included) has harnessed. Unless they can rouse the public to their side with authoritative one-liners like, "Render unto Caesar...," (probably bad example...), or the like, they will lose them. And since they really cannot explain themselves in 6 words, they will have to fend off tremendous pressure to cater to the demands of the public, and Congress. Opposition economists will all have their Warholian quarter hour. They will appear sober, and even-handed -- all convincingly touting the wrong measures. People will listen, and soon will be discussing financial / economic esoterica with grand sophomoric confidence, using buzz-words that were entirely absent from their vocabulary two weeks prior. Then other crisis will break out, and Congress will be pressured to "do something." (Anything.) And they will.

It may be here at this juncture, that the global linkage of derivatives will bring together Japan, the Argentinas of the world, the Mid-East, and all the other cracks and fissures into one critical fault line. Our currency has become effectively good at little more than providing instantaneous depth and liquidity for risk mitigation tools and speculation. For this reason, the Federal Reserve may well be entirely incapable of raising rates ever again. (I tend to lean in this direction, myself.) The breaking point might be that day when: 1) either the Fed perhaps should blink and raises rates -- to its peril; or 2) the day the dollar-holding public (foreign and domestic) loses confidence in why the Fed does not. This will be because the public's understanding demands for rates to rise under these conditions, and they will no longer buy the reasons the Fed is giving for not raising them. Could this cause the great flood-gate busting exodus? It is perhaps already happening, somewhat quietly and orderly, as we speak.

The third, and least probable scenario, would be for all the world's dollar holders to simply acquiesce in the status quo, and just let the Fed keep printing dollars into oblivion. Here, theoretically, dollar recycling into financial-instrument blackholes would allow the perpetuation of the system, as dollars are kept out of pricing goods and services. This is what the Fed is likely going to do (to prevent derivative's whoopsies, and keep the dreaded deflation at bay), but the dollar holders will surely begin dumping them by the shovel-full at some point, and this will bid up the real world costs of things we make and do. This point will most probably be the day that the stuff we really, really need (oil) starts to become prohibitively expensive.

That day indeed may not be brought on by Mid-East producers suddenly demanding higher prices out of the blue, and without clear and compelling cause to the public. It may well follow the very template I've outlined above. Just look at the dilemma of oil companies right now, as they are on the grill. None of them are even trying to explain the currency issues, and macro-economic reasons behind oil prices rising. All the conversation is orbiting a very small micro-economic universe. This is all the public is focusing on (just listen to the talk shows). The micro issues themselves are difficult enough for people to get their arms around, since most don't spend any time delving into them normally (why should they?). Yet, suddenly water-cooler expertise now includes gasoline refining processes, and oil grade differentiation among its repertory. Brought to critical mass, this semi-informed pressure will inevitably force itself in the wrong direction, and to the wrong conclusions. The current mood is for the Government to fix everything. Perhaps under the banner of the "national security," things like the current Big Oil inquisition will find the industry again reeling under the burden of ever more heavy-handed, clumsy Big Government regulation. Price caps, the ever-popular "windfall profits" extortions, and legions of newly-hired government "regulators" poking into every nook and sphincter they can find. All this to the delight of the public, and oil-hating politicians... This of course is just shooting ourselves in both feet. The subsequent additional trauma to our economy could bring about such justifiable and obvious reasons for discrediting our dollar, that we may no longer be capable of crying foul about oil producing nations wanting more dollars for their product.

This is the way the world ends, not with a bang, but a FOX News opinion poll...

Many people who follow this stuff are all looking for what the last straw will be. Perhaps this be it? And driven not by back-room machinations, or even the indiscreet emissions of someone's hedge book, but by the brazen demands of the general public at large, unwittingly asking for its legs to be lopped off at the knees. How sad, yet (at least in my mind) how very, very plausible...


All the best, (what is it now? 87 days and counting to privately obtain the precious yellow...?)
miner

btw... Mr. Gresham @ 74670 - You, good Sir, are truly an asset and a blessing to this forum... Thank you for your feedback and comments to so many different posters. It is something we all deal with, wondering whether anybody "really reads this stuff..." What takes 2 minutes to glance through may have taken someone 5 hours of precious time from "real life" to compose... Notwithstanding the cathartic benefits of having somewhere to communicate, what no one around us in real life cares about, it is so very beneficial to have feedback. Hopefully it is positive, but even sincere requests for clarification, or cool-headed, friendly argument are sought by most. So again, thank you...



CoBra(too)
(05/01/2002; 13:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74688)
After Cold Wars - It's Gold Wars
Or is it just that we'll all go to Mars or the Stars as old Frankie Boy sung of Grace Kelly - the latter, though still late Duchess of Grimaldi of Monaco.

- Anyway- all seems possible as at the blink of (who's, BTW) eye, the SM's turn around and list their first meaningful adavance in a while. After all its the first of May - a typical socialistic/communistic labor day - and that's where probably all the jobs are to be found - anyway ... far away from the western ex- capitalistic, free-market- trade and globalistic post industrial societies - who in hell would need them please? ... as we thrive on services of the financial gender, mostly - remember GE and its costly de-(activating)productivity ...

Ge...eh, with glee I'm watching the footsteps of GI-ants waging a global s'WAT to the detriment of liberty, truth and decency ... So WAT - a global threat to whom, by whom and for/or against whom? ... Do you know? No, and so I can only speculate against all and in particular "humanity" - and I hope to be wrong! too ... cb2




Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 14:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74689)
Re: Pizz and sourdough � ABX Earnings?


It is very difficult to find "net earnings" in Barrick's financial statements. I have tried in the past by digging into their 10-Q's. They tend to report "operating earnings" which is essentially the same as Pro Forma earnings. These are earnings "before all the bad stuff" � like maintenance costs, certain capital costs, etc. That is why it is so difficult to get a handle on the true earnings. Even with this favorable treatment on the earnings statement, they were unable to meet lowered earnings estimates although the POG has been rising. I noticed that Placer Dome (and others) has done the same kind of phoney accounting in the past but I am not aware of how they are reporting lately. Simply put � this kind of accounting is deceptive when investors really want to see the actual bottom line.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
(05/01/2002; 14:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 74690)
YES, CB2 -- It's NOW Gold Wars !!!
CoBra(too) (05/01/02; 13:58:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74688)
After Cold Wars - It's Gold Wars
----
Sorry, no time to chat, just like Mr. G., --- only had time to screen the Forum -- The Paper Gold guys had control of the COMEX after "Noon NY" today --- BUT things are HEATING UP and SPIKE is getting rested for the BIG JUMP !!
Like Aragorn III spoke about, "THUNDER IN THE NIGHT" !!!
Is everyone ready ?
Off to see what the Nazguls are about (Swing Shift).
<;-)
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 14:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74691)
Gold bulls see further big gains
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BD6BC620A%2DCA6A%2D4175%2DBC81%2D23AE056494B1%7D
Questions arise about hedging at Barrick Gold

Snippit:

Barrick failed to meet Wall Street earnings expectations Wednesday. In their conference call, Barrick executives fielded numerous analysts' questions about the company's hedged sales of gold, a strategy seen by some as risky if bullion prices rise sharply. Those questions, from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others, were met by Barrick executives who assured investors they were monitoring the situation.

Barrick said that for the remainder of this year it will sell half its gold production in the so-called "spot-deferred market" and half in the spot market. The company said its delivery of the metal for hedged sales fell a net 200,000 ounces. Investors increasingly are demanding that gold companies sell their ounces in the spot market, thus reducing any global selling pressure of the metal and eliminating complex accounting practices linked to hedged sales.

Barrick and others use "written calls," options contracts, and other derivative devices to hedge against possible falls in gold's price. Douglas Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto says Barrick's confusing account statements may make investors nervous. "The real story here is how they are turning their written calls into Variable Price Contracts, which no one really understands," Pollitt said after the Barrick conference call. "Why not seek absolute transparency?"


Black Blade: It appears that the Barrick conference call did not go over very well. The practice of shorting Gold by a Gold miner has raised a lot of concern lately in the investment community and for good reason. Mega-Hedger AngloGold has been unwinding their hedge book since they lost out on the Newmont-Franco bidding war for Aussie miner Normandy. The day of the hedger is over. Forward sales make no sense in a rising Gold price environment.
Aristotle
(05/01/2002; 14:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74692)
A tale of two investment mindsets
If you were a wealthy man and wanted a secure position in, say, a strongbox containing 100 kilograms of Gold Sovereigns, then to accomplish that goal you'd have to pay the market price. It's a simple and obvious concept, and today it would cost you around One Million Dollars. You'd then have clear ownership of a very impressive box of wealth, yours through thick and thin to use as you'd please.

In your mind's eye you envisioned an appropriate quantity of Gold for your personal circumstances of wealth, and so you bought it (that being the standard way of getting things, you know.)

Then one day your close friend says to you, "Hey, I see the Gold market is really heating up these days. You were sure smart to buy Gold like you did back there. Ya know, I've been thinking a lot, too, lately... about putting $1 million into Gold. When do you think I should do it?"

"Well," you reply, "if your goal is to put One Million Dollars into Gold, then the timing really doesn't matter at all. What I mean is, assuming you've got the money, you can do it at any time, so you might as well do it whenever it is most convenient for you."

He looks at you inquisitively, having expected somewhat more sophisticated investment advice about market movements and timing. You take note of his dull expression, so you decide to elaborate.

You continue, "Look, putting One Million Dollars into Gold is very easy. But on that matter, really, who am I to talk -- I've never done it." You smile.

"But I've seen your Gold!" he protests. "I thought-"

"You thought I had put One Million into the Gold. I didn't." You explain, "What I actually did was this: I set out to buy 100 kilograms, I chose Gold Sovereigns, I paid the nice man at Centennial Precious Metals. The bill came to One Million Dollars."

"That's what I've been saying," says your friend. "You put $1 million into Gold..."

"No," you interject. "You're not listening to what I'm saying. Here it is again. For my financial security I had an interest to buy over twelve thousand Sovereigns. That's what I did. It happened to cost $1 million. You, on the other hand, simply want to put One Million of your Dollars into Gold. You can do that at ANY time, now or in the future. So what I'm saying to you is to do it whenever it happens to be convenient for you to do it."

"Huh?" shrugs your friend.

"Look," you say, "carrying about 50 pounds at a time, it took me four trips back and forth to the truck to carry in all my Gold to my vault. Oh, my back! But that was then, and this is now. As you've already noticed and pointed out, the Gold Market is indeed heating up. I'm guessing that if your willing to wait a while to convert your target of One Million Dollars into Gold, you might be able to carry your Gold home easily in a small thin paper bag, with room to spare for an sandwich and an apple for lunch along the way. Quite convenient, indeed!"

Gold. Get you some while it's still inconveniently heavy for the price. --- Aristotle
miner49er
(05/01/2002; 14:50:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74693)
What is the sound of one currency inflating...?
http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfmhttp://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor213884

btw... fwiw...

The last 5 business days' "temporary" open market operations from the Fed: (the second link is to the HOF posting of the inestimable TownCrier - an excellent lesson on repurchase agreements...)

5-01: $8 billion
4-30: $5 billion
4-29: $7.5 billion
4-26: $6 billion
4-25: $5 billion 28 day RPs + $5.5 billion ovenights

bail out souring bets, stave off crunching credit, and rocket fuel for the market indexes...
Usul
(05/01/2002; 15:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74694)
Boom-bust fears after biggest monthly rise
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,707925,00.html"The news that the price of an average home has now topped the �100,000 mark came hours after the Bank of England's deputy governor, David Clementi, said there was no "bubble" in the property market and hinted that interest rates were not about to rise because of house prices...

"The Nationwide said that after adjusting for inflation, average prices were now for the first time higher than they were at the previous peak reached in the summer of 1989 during the final days of the "Lawson boom". In the five years that followed, 400,000 homes were repossessed and one in four property owners fell into negative equity as prices fell steadily."
Jade
(05/01/2002; 15:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74695)
US Dollar Index
This is the time to keep a weary eye on the US Dollar Index. We have a major juncture at this date. The sloping upward support line for the dollar for about the last 10 years was resting on 115 Tuesday [which has not been penetrated]. The sloping upward support line from the year 2000 was resting on 115 on Tuesday [which also has not been penetrated]. The downward trend channel for the last four months has the bottom of that channel resting on 115 [and also has not been penetrated to further downside]. Today at 114.6, we broke through all "three" of these trend lines at this juncture every so slightly. The fact is, we broke through. There is no doubt many FX traders will be looking at the charts tonight [with a weary eye on the USD Index action over the next 48 hours]. No need to tell you what this may do to the price of Spot Gold here.
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/2002; 15:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74696)
Nice little story Ari
Very yes to two posts down.

We kings and philosophers of old have the same minds.

POS
Rock
(05/01/2002; 15:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74697)
The Tale of two investment mindsets
AristotleVery well put Aristolle, the moral of the story is when the USD is only worth about 20 cents buying a million dollars worth of gold isn't going to go far. He certainly isn't going to get 12,000 gold Sovereigns with his million like the other guy did. What took you three trips to the truck to get to your vault will only take him one trip with a brown paper bag. LOL that was a good one.

Sir Rock
Boxman
(05/01/2002; 15:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74698)
Aristotle messege #74692
"Gold. Get you some while it's still inconveniently heavy for the price. --- Aristotle"

That has got to be the best line of the year. A real keeper. Thanks for the chuckle.


Canuck
(05/01/2002; 15:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74699)
Big rumour stirring
A note to Canuck friends near Ottawa.

An informed buddy big in the freight/shipping business informed me today that 50 cargo/freight ships have arrived in Montreal.

Rumour is stirring that a major tech firm in Ottawa is pulling the plug and heading back to Europe. I asked him who he had his eyes on.

He said no way to be sure on any of the rumour, too early to be placing bets, but his first guess was Alcatel.

If true, whomever it is, it will murder 'silcon valley north'.

I'll keep my ears open.
The Invisible Hand
(05/01/2002; 16:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74700)
GATA negates property rights
I'm sorry, I'm late, I've been away in the last 24 hours, but
"[GATA] Press release on suit against Kinross by Berger & Montague and Reg Howe"
reads
"Since the 1998 merger pursuant to which Kinross acquired
control of Kinam, as alleged in the complaint, Kinross has
consistently and repeatedly acted to impair the value of
Kinam Preferred Stock in order to facilitate a subsequent
purchase at an unfair price, culminating in the coercive
and illegal Tender Offer of February-March 2002."

I worry:
If the value of the stock has been impaired why did the holders not sell their stock?
What's an unfair price? Earlier the press release said that Kinross violated the "best price rule" promulgated under Section 13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Is the best price the same as a fair price? Or is the best price the price before the action to impair the value of the stock and the fair price then the price resulting from the impairment? Who can determine this? By what standards?

I wonder what gold stands for in GATA's eyes, but for me it doesn't stand for the allegations against Kinross.

And the email to contact Berger & Montague, P.C. is investorprotect@bm.net. How can investors be protected if their property rights, including their right to sell, are not recognized?
Belgian
(05/01/2002; 17:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74701)
Gold Wars
Today's strong dollar-decline NOT compensated with POG rise !? Strange !
Who is selling the dollar, with how much power and what target ?
What about the short positions (5.000 >>> 26.000 mt) of the bank-cartel (Deutsche/JPM-C/GS etc) ? Howhowww.
This must be a conflicting situation for at least one side of the equation. A too fast declining dollar not correctly corresponding with expiry dates on the massive derivative short positions on Gold !
Could we see both dollar and Gold declining ? If so, someone will use declining dollar-reserves to buy Gold at spot and provoke POG rise for compensation ? Or am I jumping too fast to conclusions/suppositions and is the today's anomaly due to 1 of may inactivity in Europ ? Thoughts anyone ?
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 17:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74702)
US Dollar Diving!

Has anyone been watching the US Dollar Index plunge today? It has fallen sharply below 115. This is definitely going to be positive for Gold.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 18:11:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74703)
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC
Snippit:

New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks have been hitting the brakes on loans to companies harder than at any time in at least three decades, tightening standards and refusing to finance businesses that don't retain them for other services.


Black Blade: This shows how much confidence the banks have in the US "economic recovery". Of course we already know that the economic recession is deepening and certainly corporate earnings have failed to materialize. Without consumer spending and companies burdened under crushing record debt, it is no wonder then that US banks are tightening their standards for loans. So while the bankers Wall Street pimps bark that all is well, just pay attention to what they do. This recession is poised for further decline. There is no fundamental reasoning that suggests otherwise.
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 18:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74704)
Probe of analysts reportedly widens
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/121/business/SEC_seen_asking_10_firms_for_data+.shtmlSEC seen asking 10 firms for data

Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Amid reports that regulators are asking 10 major Wall Street firms for information about their research policies, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commision said yesterday there was enough ''questionable conduct'' by Wall Street analysts to merit an inquiry into whether fraud was committed.

Harvey Pitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, spoke in a television interview a few days after the SEC launched an investigation to determine whether analysts rated certain stocks highly just so their firms could obtain lucrative investment-banking business. ''I think that there is evidence of enough questionable conduct that we owe it to the public to satisfy ourselves'' whether there was fraud, Pitt told the CNBC financial television network.

Pitt's comments come as the SEC begins ramping up its inquiry and top Merrill Lynch & Co. executives prepare to meet with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer this week to present a settlement offer, people with knowledge of the matters told The Wall Street Journal. Spitzer and the SEC are looking into whether investment houses, such as Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney, and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, mislead investors with overly optimistic research on companies that also did business with their investment banking documents.


Black Blade: Note that New York has its own investigation underway. The obvious conclusion is that there will be many lawsuits against the Wall Street investment houses. This could become bigger than asbestos and tobacco litigation. This story has a long way to go. Wait until more dirt is dug up as these investigations proceed.
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 18:20:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74705)
USD Index Chart
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Take a look now before the chart switches over the next 24 hours. The huge dive of the USD!

- Black Blade
Chris Powell
(05/01/2002; 18:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74706)
Barrick moving on AngloGold, explaining Anglo's strange talk
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1094Barrick moves on AngloGold, explaining
AngloGold's talking up the gold price
before it finishes covering its shorts.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 18:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74707)
Natural gas futures prices rise as oil prices drop
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142519

Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 1 -- The June contract for natural gas jumped by 23.4� to $3.80/Mcf Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but other petroleum futures prices were down. The NYMEX June crude oil contract fell 28� to $27.29/bbl, while the July position lost 19� to $26.93/bbl.

After the close of the NYMEX session, officials of the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories increased by 7.6 million bbl last week to 325.6 million bbl. Distillate stocks also were up by 2.7 million bbl to 121.2 million bbl. However, with the nation poised for the start of the summer driving season, US gasoline stocks dropped 1.6 million bbl to 210.5 million bbl.



Black Blade: Note � even though injection increased last week by 38 bcf, that is slightly more than half of the prior weeks injection. Also, as storage levels are much higher, this has much to do with several new storage facilities in the wake of last years energy crisis. With lower NG exploration and production there has been essentially a transfer NG from existing wells to storage and very little increase in reserves. This is an unsustainable situation that will lead to additional future price spikes when supply is drawn down and few new wells are in production. Currently NG is at $3.70 Mbtu.
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/2002; 18:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74708)
USD Forest for the Trees
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12Hey Black Blade

Yes...looking at the 24 hours scale on NYBOT DXY really does look like going over niagra falls.

To get a little perspective, I walked the plank out each time increment to 1 yr on the chart options and noticed that the chart of the last month, since we broke below the 50 day moving average is a lot like the month of Jul 15-
Aug 15 2001 since we broke the 50 day before.

113 seems to have been an interesting support....and then just as we were heading for new lows...Sept 11 came along and the trend is reversed.

It makes me wonder if another terrorist event happened today if the world would run back into the dollar.

Poor old Solomon
Pizz
(05/01/2002; 18:59:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74709)
Belgian
Re: Dollar Sell Off

It appears that Sec. O'Neil did not defend a strong dollar policy at the Senate today. His basic comments were no comment with the reasoning that he would not give speculators ammunition.

My feel is the speculators are getting out.

As far as gold not going up accordingly, same old story -trench warfare and close combat. The shorts have their back upagainst a 310 311 wall with a fair size abyss behind it???

Same with DOW. Feels like foreign money (that's a guess on my part)or big US money may be moving to calmer waters. Pressure on all markets right now.


Pizz
YGM
(05/01/2002; 19:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74710)
Barrick, Anglo & Godsell
& the GATA CREW.....Things in Gold's world are getting more explosive by the week.....Makes you wonder what's next.....Not just interesting times but now "Exciting" as well....

Gold Advocates owe a great deal to Bill, Chris, Reg, & GATA in the mix of all we now see and hear.....

THANKS SEEMS INADEQUATE FOR SO MUCH TIME SPENT, FAMILIES PUT ON HOLD, AND SO MUCH MORE WE'LL NEVER KNOW ABOUT OR HEAR COMPLAINTS OF FROM THESE TIRELESS FEW....

SO "GO GATA" SHAKA ZULU HAD THE BATTLE PLAN FROM DAY ONE!!
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/2002; 19:17:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74711)
Jim Pupluva's Market Update is quite rich today
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmDon't miss today's comments....

I also realized in reading them that most of my friends and co-workers would think he's crazy....but just like Black Blade...he nails everything to the wall.

POS
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 19:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74712)
Riders On The Storm - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/riders/complete.htmEnergy Will Be A Permanent Problem

Snippit:

This time around, our energy crisis is not temporary. It will become permanent unless we do something about it. Unless we solve it, our future prosperity and that of the world could become imperiled. We have been fortunate in the U.S. in that our excess demand for energy has been supplied by imports from OPEC and other foreign producers. This has come at the expense of a deteriorating trade deficit. However, a day is coming in the not too distant future when our voracious appetite for energy will compete against the demands from emerging world economies. The desire of growing populations in lesser-developed nations to maintain and increase their standard of living intensifies the demand on the world's mineral resources. The United States, with only 5% of the world's population, uses about a third of the globe's annual energy supplies. As we import more of our energy and raw materials (resources in which we were once self-sufficient), we will increasingly lose control over our future economic destiny. Many in the U.S. just don't get it. The era of cheap and abundant energy is gone.

Energy and minerals are the basis of our modern civilization. Without these resources, nations are doomed to remain at poverty levels. If denied access to supplies, countries will either resign themselves to a position of poverty or as in the case of Japan in 1941, go to war. With no new frontiers to explore, nations will continuously face conflicts and jostle for position for access to the earth's raw materials. Future military conflicts like the Gulf War and the current conflict in the Middle East will be over access to the earth's remaining resources of energy, water, fertile soil and other base minerals. It is for these reasons that we must begin now to solve this crisis. The severity of a recession, or the strength of a recovery, will depend on the job that is done.


Black Blade: Puplava tackles a boatload of information in this Storm Watch update. Not just energy, but debt, corporate spending, etc. In short he presents his case against an economic recovery. As I have been hitting hard on myself for since 1998. This is the culmination of a series of events that are converging to form the "Perfect Storm". Definitely well worth reading � warning � it is long and covers quite a bit of material.

BTW, I see he gives a thumbs up to USAGOLD at the bottom of the page.
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 20:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74713)
States Pressing Analyst Probe
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11428-2002Apr30.html
Snippit:

State regulators are moving ahead with a coordinated investigation of conflicts of interest among stock analysts on Wall Street, sources said yesterday, to the dismay of the securities industry, which is backing a Securities and Exchange Commission-led probe of the issue. Officials from at least five states -- New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Alabama and Massachusetts -- spent a day last week with representatives of the office of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer to study his work on Merrill Lynch & Co., the sources said.

Black Blade: First it was the SEC, then New York, and now more states are getting onboard. It looks like a massive deluge of lawsuits, fines and possible prison sentences are in the offing.
Black Blade
(05/01/2002; 20:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74714)
Argentina Pays Record 95% Rate at Central Bank Debt Auction
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APM6IBBRAQXJnZW50
Snippit:

Buenos Aires, April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank paid a record 95 percent interest rate to sell 61 million pesos ($20.7 million) of 15-day bills yesterday to help shore up the currency.


Black Blade: From the frying pan into the fire.

BTW, the USD is weakening further.
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/2002; 20:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74715)
Where liquid dollars are flowing in from
http://www.compareinterestrates.com/default.asp2/3 of all homeowners have gone to the fountain of second mortgages

POS
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/01/2002; 21:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74716)
I won't eat at the following restaurants:
A basic warning about Eco Bay. Watching large block orders coming across all yesterday and today. MM was not refreshing his ask. (means he has like an unlimited amount of float for sale) So it's going the way of Crystalex down for the count. Top execs wanted to raise near $20 million to reduce debt by floating more sheers out. Why can't they just work for a living. Anyway, it's new junk like the old junk. Newmont came in and took Eco's silver mine and did a 100 million debt for sticks swap. Now why would Newmont go for the silver mine when probably it could have gone after any of the other gold mines that Eco had? Must be some important silver in them hills. With US western electricity costs being so high, that is going to factor in to recovery cost of revenue. I'm jest a warning ye of the 10Q and 10K's statements that can be taken either way. Double talk is becoming profound in them. Every minor miner has some fly in the ointment. It's can they flick it out with some operation in a third world area where they can get away with using the giant trucks and super scoops. TVX is going to have a tough time trying to mine the Olympias project with the threat of the town above collapsing into the "project". How many millions did the "godfathers" reep on that one. Turn it into an olive grove. With the hope of a ten for one reverse split, wow, I get less and it's more. No, not for me. Another MM with megafloat to pawn off.
But no flunkie miner review is complete without a mention of Las Christas, the problem child with a multiple split personality. Gold Reserve does have a valid claim to its Brisas consession IF the CVG "feels" good enough about it to not take them into its kangaroo court. Vanessa (not the babe) just the small open door for Placer Dome's "back entrance". CVG was crying when Placer pulled out, Vanessa isn't rich enough to steal from. Anyway, who is going to clean up all the mercury spillage that covers the Cristas toxic waste site? Wildcaters seem to leave a practical joke behind. Then what amazes me when they calculate production costs with 95 cent per pound copper, billions of tons of copper. So do we cover the earth with copper cookware? Extra copper plumbing for the cold water side? The price of copper isn't going to skyrocket with a post 1929 world recession??? Oh, but this is a semi-semi precious metal the copper is, and the world needs more and more now that we are going to fiber optic cables made of glass. Well it's a TKOCF sort of thing and the public just doesn't understand. "Talk like a goldmine, walk in circles like a copper pit". Place-your-dime on the big copper price wheel and that's all Placer Dome is, a multinational copper biz dancing with the goldminers but it can't get in step. Well, when you see the sun come up tomarrow it's really beemin bright. Take refuge Juliete its all going into the bank.
-GR2
sourdough
(05/01/2002; 21:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74717)
Trizezhahn exchangeable debentures (ABX)30 million shares
http://www.trizechahn.com/trizechahn/ii/download/fbq4_T1.pdfI found the paper related to exchangeable debentures issued by Trizechahn.
They appear to be exchangeable by the holder at 32 ABX shares per U.S. $1000 on the first 8.9 million shares.
The other debentureS have a rate of 52 ABX shares per U.S. $1000.
They secured a loan by pledging over 30 million shares of Barrick.
It appears they have an option to exchange cash for the shares at the then present rate.
So, somebody has a lean on 30 million Barrick shares.
As Trizechahn reorganizes I naturally wondered if they were having troubles.
When Gold runs,
Will TRIZEC be in a position to hang on the shares?
How much money is likely to be made on those shares?
How much "clout" would a 30 million share holder have/HAD over ABX hedging policy?
Myself, I thought this loan structure could have implications that more than meet the eye.
I would appreciate if someone could take a look at the loan and comment if I have understood correctly.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/01/2002; 21:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74718)
While they're going up, they're still go down
PREMIS:
A currency gaining strength attracts foreign capital. A weakening currency repels foreign investment.

How many of the market analysis wizards understand that a falling dollar pulls a vacume on every equity listing including the index options, including bonds, including real estate in USA. Hence the beginning of the bull market in commodities of which GOLD is king.

The entire capitalization of all the goldmines in the world is less than the price of McDonalds corp. (50 billion) So when do we see millions of ounces served daily? I try to tell people about gold so they don't get hurt in the next big crash, but they haven't a clue and think you're nuts for speaking of reality.
sourdough
(05/02/2002; 00:44:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74719)
Trizezhahn exchangeable debentures (ABX)30 million shares
Can anyone make the argument that Munk, aka Trizechahn would prefer that ABX does not climb in price to be in the money on these debentures?
Can the same be said for any increase in the ABX dividend?
Dividend (ABX) is a factor in determining interest rate of debentures.
If gold were to rise and carry ABX with it into and above exhange rate, Munk would be at risk of either losing the 30 million ABX shares and the capital gain, or if he wanted to keep them, it would cost the higher price.
It would appear to me that the best thing for Trizechahn would be that gold and Barrick just stumble along at a price low enough to prevent exercise and necessity for Barrick to increase the dividend until the time they can pay back the loan.
This would be a good deal on interest rates if things don`t get out of hand and the gold price doesn`t drag Barrick up to high.
Can anybody see it this way, besides me?
Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74720)
Rich finds in volcanoes
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=1842941&thesection=news&thesubsection=general"The submarine mountains contained some of the world's richest mineral deposits, including copper, lead and zinc, and gold at six parts per million - twice the ratio of gold mined at Macraes Flat near Dunedin"
Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74721)
Tokyo hits back at downgrade
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/01/1019441393795.html"The Ministry of Finance has sent a letter of complaint to Standard and Poor's and Moody's, questioning their objectivity and reliability...

"Your explanations regarding rating decisions are mostly qualitative in nature and lack objective criteria, which invite questions about the larger issue of the reliability of ratings itself," a summary of his letter said."
Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74722)
How Wall Street's Analysts Fooled Public on Verisign
http://www.nypost.com/business/47014.htm"Even after their research is proven wrong, analysts are fooling with the facts to make it look as if they got clients out of the way of a collapsing stock..."
Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74723)
Stock market in dead-cat bounce
http://www.nypost.com/business/47049.htm"...nothing more than a bear market rally..."
Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74724)
Dow breaks 10,000
Aaaaargh! It's deja vu all over again!
Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74725)
Fiber-Optic Overdose Racks Up Casualties
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18217-2002May1.html" "We may have put 80 years' worth of capital into the ground," said Vince Tobkin, director of the technology practice at consulting firm Bain & Co., referring to a massive installation of underground fiber-optic networks..."

"In time, however, Wall Street and the banks began to realize that the telecom overcapacity was so profound (less than 10 percent of all that fiber-optic wire is being used, for example), and unit prices were falling so fast (the cost of a cellular minute fell 25 percent in a year), that it was unlikely anyone was going to make any money anytime soon"

Me:
The overcapacity, malinvestment and corruption caused by a boom/bubble/bull of such magnitude will not be purged overnight! The bust will be pro-rata, IMHO. (Oh yes, and gold should serve well to preserve wealth in such an environment).
Spartacus
(05/02/2002; 01:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74726)
O'Neill Unbowed on Dollar
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18117-2002May1.htmlBy Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 2, 2002


Practically everyone who spoke at a Senate hearing yesterday agreed that the U.S. dollar is too strong and that America's trade deficit is dangerously high � everyone, that is, except the man who mattered most, Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill.

And at the beginning of his testimony, he made it clear that he wasn't about to depart from his support for the policy, first articulated during the Clinton administration, that a strong dollar is in America's interest. The strength of the dollar against the Japanese yen, euro and other currencies makes U.S. exports more expensive on world markets and makes imports cheap, thereby causing the trade gap to widen. But O'Neill said he wouldn't alter his position.

"As I read the wire clips from around the world this morning, there's apparently some breathless anticipation [in currency markets] that I'm going to say something to intentionally indicate a change in policy position or direction," he told the panel. "I want to assure you at the outset, whatever I may say, that is not the intent."


Spartacus
(05/02/2002; 01:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74727)
British funds cut U.S. holdings, go euro
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020430/markets_britain_allocation_2.html
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - British fund managers are shaving back exposure to U.S. assets in favour of the euro zone, driven by concerns that despite an economic recovery U.S. profits will not grow fast enough to justify valuations.


Usul
(05/02/2002; 01:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74728)
"Bush administration... could default..."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.html"Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday"

Does this spell increasing risk? Yields are compensation for risk - and here, circumstances are pointing towards raised interest rates. As Bill Gross of Pimco (no small-time money manager) has pointed out, nonfinancial corporate sector debt as a percentage of cash flow has risen to record highs, and they have apparently moved to short-term debt which is over-sensitive to rate hikes, thus putting Greenspan between a rock and a hard place. He is loath to raise rates because that would increase interest repayments big time, affecting both corporate and private sectors who have loaded up on cheap debt. But in being so constrained, he is asking for inflation to break loose. Yet if he raises rates too much, interest repayments will kill the retail economy stone dead. Greeny is balanced on a knife edge between an inflationary or deflationary recession. Gold should be useful to preserve wealth in either environment, IMHO!

"Does Greenspan dare do more in this next tightening cycle? Nay � he will do less once the 9/11 emergency reductions have been taken back to a more normal 3% or so. Too many big time 'players' on the short side. The systemic risk is certainly anything but de minimus... And because Greenspan must keep short rates relatively low, the risk of inflation in future years will be greater than otherwise..." - William H. Gross, April 2002
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 03:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74729)
Oil Falls as Arafat Emerges From Compound
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020502/markets_oil_2.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about one percent on Thursday as Israel ended a siege of Palestinian headquarters in Ramallah, easing fears of a spread of violence and potential supply disruptions from the oil-rich Middle East.


Black Blade: I wonder if he saw his shadow? If he did does that mean 6 more weeks of winter?
Spartacus
(05/02/2002; 04:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74730)
the Indian gold market
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/walker/walker050202.htmlGold Shortage Now
George Walker
May 02, 2002

--It is absolutely fascinating to observe what is currently occurring in the world gold markets, as suddenly there seems to be a notable gold shortage. I estimate the shortage to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 300 plus tonne annual deficit range. That is a rate of 25 tonnes per month. This shortage can be readily confirmed by monitoring the Indian gold market.--

Canuck
(05/02/2002; 04:30:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74731)
Godsell out of WGC, Chris Thompson in
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/walker/walker050202.html

"German buying being a significant factor was first brought to my attention by way of Chris Thompson of Gold Fields Ltd. As he is now replacing Bobby Godsell of Anglogold as head of the WGC, I would assume that he knows what he is talking about"

-end-

I was unaware of this!! This is good news.
Topaz
(05/02/2002; 04:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74732)
No pressure, if lease rates are a guide.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2002gofo.htmLease rates have laughed off the current uptick - which indicates most of the momentum has been created in the many forms of paper investments available to the "astute" Gold investor....sheesh!
On another front, Koisumi san has just completed a visit to Australia. Apart from the now mandatory visit to a War Museum, he discussed a Free Trade agreement with OZ. (thats the one.....you give us your resources....for FREE) however this time I feel it's different -
His visit comes hot on the heels of a Chinese Delegation - last week - and US noises re Free Trade of late.
Looks like World trade is Polarising into an US-v-Them situation quite quickly.
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 04:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74733)
Dollar Stays on Defensive
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020502/markets_forex_2.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to pull off multi-month lows against the euro and the yen on Thursday as doubts over the United States' commitment to a strong currency persisted.

"We have seen a complete sea-change in sentiment toward the dollar, and people are now just looking for excuses to sell," said Neal Kimberley, manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.

The greenback, already reeling on concerns over the pace of U.S. recovery, suffered one of its biggest one-day falls this year on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill failed to convince markets over his country's commitment to a strong dollar policy.



Black Blade: The USD must weaken in order to narrow the booming trade deficit. Exporters can not compete in foreign markets and at the same time the recession deepens.
Topaz
(05/02/2002; 05:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74734)
@Canuck
Perhaps we may see a shift from promoting "value-adding to the Barbarous relic" eh? ...good link.
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 05:30:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74735)
IEA Urges U.S. to Boost Production
http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=13334400&template=gas/indexsearch.txt∈dex=recent
Snippit:

PARIS (AP) � The United States must increase production of oil and natural gas if the country is to meet its future growth in energy demand and reduce its dependence on imports, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. ``A secure energy supply is essential to underpin economic growth,'' IEA Executive Director Robert Priddle told a news conference, after the agency released its review of U.S energy policies.

The Paris-based agency said current domestic production of natural gas � which is growing at 4 percent a year � was not enough to meet growing demand, and urged the United States to step up drilling in new areas both onshore and offshore. ``We'd like to see an opening up of the Arctic reserves in an environmentally sensitive way, because the U.S. needs new sources of supply,'' Priddle said.

The IEA also encouraged the re-licensing of existing nuclear power plants in the United States, saying that it would ensure a continuing, substantial component in power production. No nuclear plants have been constructed there since 1973.

Black Blade: Even the IEA (a French organization) understands that the supply of energy is important to the US economy and also a national security issue.

LeSin
(05/02/2002; 06:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74736)
Gold Dinar + Islamic Financial Principles @ "The Times They Are a Changing"
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020502/200205020329000129_1.htmlhttp://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020502/200205020329000129_1.html


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday May 2, 3:29 am Eastern Time
10 Central Banks To Form Advisory Body On Islamic Financial Services

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Central bankers from 10 Islamic countries have agreed to form an umbrella advisory body based in Kuala Lumpur to promote the application of Islamic law in their financial services industries.

The Islamic Financial Services Board, or IFSB, will set principles and adapt existing international standards consistent with Islamic law, or Shariah, according to a news release from the International Monetary Fund.

The agreement, reached on the sidelines of the recent IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington , D.C ., concludes two years of talks among the central bankers, the Islamic Development Bank and the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



"Malaysia plans to initially use gold dinar within small group "

"MALAYSIA plans to initially use the gold dinar as a currency for trading with a small group of countries, in the hope it would slowly gain international acceptance.
"We are trying to work it out with three or four countries that we have close ties with,�� said Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who proposed the system last month to reduce the risk of speculation in bilateral trading. "

"The Arab and Gulf states ... maybe they'll accept it,�Ehe told reporters after attending a Labour Day function in Kuala Lumpur yesterday."

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

"The prime minister, who recently visited Libya, Bahrain and Morocco, said the three countries had responded enthusiastically to the plan."

"He said however that no deadline had been set for the launch."

"We have to solve the problems first. There will be lots of problems,�EDr Mahathir said, adding that Malaysia intended to host an international conference on the subject."

"He said gold was also open to some risk of speculation but it was safer than conventional currency, which had no intrinsic value and could be manipulated indefinitely. "

"You cannot speculate too much in the price"
LeSin
(05/02/2002; 06:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74737)
"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "
GOLD - "InStead of the US$"Worth Repeating - sort of drives the message home,yes?

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

Cheers "S"
nickel62
(05/02/2002; 07:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74738)
Watching the Swisss lower rates and their Franc sink in currency markets...made me think!
The power that the world has given the US dollar to be the determinate of foreign trade has loosed a terrible tyranny in the world.
The current global trading structure allows the US and it's paper reserve currency the power to determine what the competitive position of all the world's people will be. As long as the US Federal Reserve is allowed to continue their relative monopoly on what is money they can force the rest of their trading partners to do things that may not be in the longterm best interests of those partners economies or their people.

When we can bubble our stock valuations and at the same time put downward pressure on the spot prices of any commodity we chose, the trading/banker establishment in the US can effectively vacuum up the value added from all those other countries that we trade with.They demand that our trading partners recycle their US dollar earnings from exporting to the US to be invested in US Treasury securities which lowers US interest rates even further, or they will be excluded from our domestic markets. They create freely floating currencies that allow them to determine the cost competiveness of all countries by changing the cost basis of the production and they fuel their own production by lending dollars to buy more US dollar denominated machinery and other production inputs at the then prevailing currency exchange rate.

By setting the spot price of commodities through market pressure acheived with unlimited leverage from Derivatives and unlimited US dollar credit creation the US can "set" the price of any commodity or currency at a price which doesn't even allow for the coverage of the costs of production of that product. This effectively makes the producers of these commodities slaves producing for a market in the US that pays them less than it costs them to produce these products if the true costs of the capital investment inputs are taken into account.

By controlling this process the transfer becomes a form of servitude. IF a country like Switzerland wants to fight against this process we will simply allow their currency to appreciate and their export industries become uncompetitive. If they fight the US dollar hegemony of these markets they will be destroyed by their own strong currency. If they argue about the gold dishoarding they will be rewarded with a Swiss Franc so highly valued their economies will suffer.

So our colonialism becomes irresistable for even the strongest countries and for the second and third tier countries of the world it is total slavery...produce at the market price we control or slump into recession and deperession from your lack of an exportable basis for your economy. As their industries become unable to replenish their capital base because the price we allow them to earn for their output is insufficient to earn them the ability to have any national wealth savings they are sucked further and further into the game.

They borrow from the IMF in US dollar loans to survive and this very borrowing then becomes further demand for dollars that allow their servitude to be perpetuated. A vicious new form of economic colonialism that robs the value creation of the whole world and transfers it into the hands of a small group of traders in the money centers of the west.

Our trading partners must return their export earnings to our capital markets through the US Strong Dollar policy and its various dictates or be denied access to the US market. Price your product at the lowest world price we can manipulate or be made totally reduntant and suffer the political turmoil in your own country as your population is forced into unemployment levels that are untenable.

The only answer is to make this monster visible for the victims before they fly another plane into the infrastructure of the beast to draw attention to the scheme.
nickel62
(05/02/2002; 07:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74739)
In light of the previous commnets it is easy to see the entire crux of the US relationship with Isreal and the various oil producing countries of the Middle East...
In a nutshell the Saudis and the Iran/Kuwait/Iraq petroleum reserves(that are all fairly tightly located in a relatively small geographic area) contain the worlds lowest cost petroleum production. IF the US/UK were not able to ensure the control of these reserves then the price could be set at whatever level those who did control those areas wanted to charge..the game would be over...and the US/UK would be the servants and not the masters. The support of Isreal and its only populous possible combatant Egypt with unbelievable levels of direct foreign aid only makes sense in this light. We have the Isreali enforcer in the region to keep the muslim slaves in line..the royal family is there after all only because we put them in power and back it up with the US military might, but we need a close local power to punish those who might take actions against our control and that is the function of Isreal pure and simple...the other is all just dross to confuse and justify the process..It is time that we understood what we are really doing and see if the US population are really willing to lose their sons in the process.
CoBra(too)
(05/02/2002; 07:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74740)
Barrick's Hedge Book - Already under Water!
Says Doug Pollitt - No wonder the co. is looking for more physical to keep the game afloat a little longer. Bill Murphy's take on Barrick trying a fast one on Anglo Gold is probably a bit premature in MHO as the real power behind Anglo Gold is Anglo American ... We'll see - cb2

" Globe says Barrick's profitable hedging days wane"

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 537,813,627 May 1 close $32.14
Thu 2 May 2002 In the News
The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, May 2, edition that Barrick
Gold saw its profit for the first quarter of 2002 fall almost 50 per cent
from the same period a year earlier as its ability to make money from its
hedge-trading activities diminishes. The Globe's Allan Robinson writes that
profit for the three months ended March 31 was $46-million or nine cents a
share, compared with a profit of $87-million or 16 cents a year earlier
(all figures U.S.). Last year's figure included a $52-million non-hedge
derivative gain. Barrick's revenue was $478-million, compared with
$499-million last year, as a result of lower production and prices on its
gold sales. The fair value of Barrick's hedge position has declined to a
loss of $127-million, down from a surplus of $356-million at the end of
2001, says Pollitt & Co. analyst Douglas Pollitt. "In the past, the company
booked gains from its hedge book into earnings," says Mr. Pollitt. "Now
they are losing money on the books." Barrick says that $483-million swing
in the off-balance-sheet item is mainly a result of the $23 rise in the
price of gold, and it represents 22 per cent of the gold reserves, which
are hedged.
(c) Copyright 2002 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.stockwatch.com

Hipplebeck
(05/02/2002; 07:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 74741)
nichel62
Well said sir!!
It came home to me solidly when I was watching that pbs special about the global economy.
They showed a man in India with some sort of grains piled up on his wagon being drawn by oxen. He was on his way to the market, and the commentator stated that the price of his grain was being set in the Chicago mercantile. This just makes me sick to see that some greedy suits who probably have never even stood in a field of grain are setting the living level of someone on the other side of the world. How can this possibly be? I cannot wait to see this system fall.

On watching the Middle East, I see that the media thinks we are on a safer road, but the only thing I see is that Arafat is being set up once again to be a policeman against his own people to "stop terrorism" It is all a joke, because no matter what window dressing they put on it, the big war is inevitable. No matter how much dancing around the subject they do, the war is about which flag flies over the temple mount. It is possible I suppose that we could all go into another period of "negotiations" while more settlements are built and things are consolidated on the ground, but don't expect it to last very long. The war is about Jerusalem, and the clock is ticking. Things will have to come to a head sooner or later. Economic collapse or world war? which comes first?
CoBra(too)
(05/02/2002; 07:51:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74742)
@ Nickel
Sir, I fully concur with your recent posts. I'm also grateful, that these thoughts have been forwarded by an North American - hope I'm correct here - instead of any other nationality... Who may have held these notions for quite some time - though, reluctant to state it officially
due to the concern of passing the blame and still benefitting ... Thank you cb2

PS - Hipplebeck - It's probably not so much Jerusalem or Bethlehem - it's probably in all reality about the availability of cheap oil ...



nickel62
(05/02/2002; 07:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74743)
Yes, I am a north american,
I am saddened that it has become necessary to state the obvious about my countries actions..seems it should be taught in school. But that is probably one of the reasons our public schools are allowed to remain so abysmal. Our world wide media gives brain washing a bad name, as we all know.
YGM
(05/02/2002; 08:04:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74744)
LeSin...Islamic Law....Re-Financial Transactions....
http://www.murabitun.org/WITO/trading.htmlYou Posted.....

Thursday May 2, 3:29 am Eastern Time
10 Central Banks To Form Advisory Body On Islamic Financial Services

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Central bankers from 10 Islamic countries have agreed to form an umbrella advisory body based in Kuala Lumpur to promote the application of Islamic law in their financial services industries.

The Islamic Financial Services Board, or IFSB, will set principles and adapt existing international standards consistent with Islamic law, or Shariah, according to a news release from the International Monetary Fund. Etc....




*SHARIAH*
Here is a brief of Islamic Law............"NO USURY


The Return of Islamic Trading


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


During the last two hundred years the Muslims have been forced to abandon their own way of conducting their public affairs. Thus Islamic Law has been progressively reduced to a code regarding only individual and sexual matters, while at the same time the ruling of trade and industry has been abandoned. The Murabitun are the first group of activist Muslims,who after this period of darkness, are re-establishing the practice of trade which is declared Halal (permitted) by the Shariah and are abandoning the usurious practices that have corrupted the commercial life at the present day. The Murabitun are leading other Muslims to return to the practice of Islamic Trading.

The Islamic Model concerning trade is based around the prohibition that Allah has made clear in the Qur'an:

"ALLAH HAS PERMITTED TRADE AND FORBIDDEN USURY"
(Qur'an 2, 275)

Allah also says in the Qur'an:

"OH YOU WHO BELIEVE! TAKE SHELTER IN GOD AND ABANDON WHAT REMAINED (DUE TO YOU) OF USURY IF YOU ARE (INDEED) BELIEVERS. BUT IF YOU DO IT NOT, THE TAKE NOTICE OF WAR FROM ALLAH AND HIS MESSENGER"
(Qur'an 2, 278-279)

We acknowledge that the crime of usury is being committed daily against all humanity by the banking system, resulting in the death of thousands of people throughout the world, the starvation of many others, the creation of the unnatural phenomenon of unemployment, the destruction of small businesses and the general impoverishment of most of mankind.

In the face of these well known disasters, at the time of a general recognition that the role of the banks is not innocent, when the majority of analysts recognise that interest debt is a direct cause of death and stagnation in poor countries. Everybody dislikes the banks, but are made to believe as if it were their own thought, that we need the banks! and there is nothing we can do about that! In the face of a general climate of resigned helplessness the Murabitun are creating active solutions. The way out of this usurious banking system must be based on the Islamic Model, in which usury is incompatible with life, proving that WE DO NOT NEED THE BANKS. Part of the model consists of the re-establishment of a successful network of Halal Trading throughout the world, that does not involve any form of interest-debt, control of products by speculative Future and Stock Markets, or any mediation of a bank.

The Islamic Model restores the economical power hijacked by the banks and the state to the common people. It is harmonious to the legitimate aspiration of the ethnic minorities who yearn for total emancipation from the grip of the modern banking-oriented artificial states in order to rule themselves. It returns the life to the impoverished workers by the rooting out of the parasite: The banks that live off the workers' work. In the Islamic Model unemployment does not exist, and the worker is not a slave of a salary, but enjoys his own business, usually in association, free from the compulsion of having to work for someone else for a paltry wage. In the Islamic Model multinationals and hyper-markets are eliminated; rather than one owner and one thousand employees as it is the case in any hyper-market today, in the Islamic Model we have a thousand free owners in an open Free Market. The Islamic Model removes any form of monopoly that has made everybody a humble salaried worker and thus gives a chance of independence to the self-motivated individual in a 'Free-Market-without-usury'.

The Murabitun are promoting the creation of this new way of trading ;or rather, the only one; consisting of:

Minting and putting in circulation of Gold and Silver coins.

Building Free Markets, regulated according to the Islamic Law.

Restoring commercial routes with caravans and fair contracting models.

Restoring the guilds as autonomous institutions of production

Establishing the authority of Judges to rule the commercial disputes.

The Islamic Law guarantees the removal of the smallest trace of usury from commercial agreements, thus guaranteeing the equity in the contracts.


**Now here is a model for CB's and the power behind the scenes to wage war if ever there was one....Noone could imagine the CB cartel of the western world allowing "NO USURY".............YGM.
YGM
(05/02/2002; 08:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74745)
Very Excellent Post......
nickel62 (5/2/02; 07:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74738)My hats off to you for your clarity of thought....I think that the youth of today who protest so strongly against the WTO etc "ARE" on the right track.....Maybe there is hope as always in the 'Next' generation.....Keep those thoughts coming......Regards..YGM
Hipplebeck
(05/02/2002; 08:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74746)
cb2
Please excuse if I sound harsh, but keep your eye on the ball. It is ALL about that one piece of real estate at the temple mount. Whoever controls it, controls the covenant of the god of Abraham. It is not even about the Palestinian state. The war will be fought after all the hype that can be mustered becomes transparent and all the beating around the bushes leaves only the Jerusalem problem obviously insolvable. The temple mount is the ball. If you want to know what's really going on, keep your eye on it. The rest is just negotiating chips to get leverage for the real prize.
Gimli_
(05/02/2002; 08:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74747)
FWIW: Usury prohibited in Old Testament too....
Both Islamic and Mosaic Law prohibit usury. Hmmm....

Lev 25:36-37 Take thou no usury of him, or increase: but fear thy God; that thy brother may live with thee. Thou shalt not give him thy money upon usury, nor lend him thy victuals for increase.

Deut 23:19 Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury:
miner49er
(05/02/2002; 09:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74748)
nickel62 @74738
That was an excellent post, Sir... Your concise summarization of what is often referred to as "Dollar Hegemony" is a must read. Segue from there to the Foundation Posts of FOA in Archive I, and you will see him using these particulars to build the case for the development of an alternative currency to break this monopoly.

miner
YGM
(05/02/2002; 09:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74749)
Now I Wonder How Many Knew That??
Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)That info sure took me by surprise.......
CoBra(too)
(05/02/2002; 09:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74750)
OK - Hipplebeck -
Let us be conciliatory and say it's about the ... lberg! - Mt. of Olives? may be the accepted translation, though that kind of oil has (en-)lightened the benighted for centuries ... anyway, I offer you the olive branch - cb2 ;)


sector
(05/02/2002; 09:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74751)
The National Debt Default Thingy...maybe it's nothing...but Peter Fischer [Mr. Smash Gold] is in it and acting afraid.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.htmlU.S. Could Face Debt Crunch on June 28
Treasury Running Out Of Room to Tap Funds

By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 2, 2002; Page E01

Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday.

On that date, the government must make more than $60 billion in semiannual interest payments to trust funds, primarily Social Security. While that is a paper transaction, consisting of new bonds, it counts against the government's $5.95 trillion debt limit. Officials said the Treasury plans to start using a variety of budget tricks later this month to keep the government below the debt limit, but they will not be enough to prevent default on June 28 if Congress does not raise the limit.

"The end of June is really the end of the party. There isn't anything past that," Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher said in an interview yesterday. "It is necessary that Congress do this before the end of June. We expect they are going to do it before the end of June. They need to do it before the end of June."

The administration asked for a $750 billion increase in the debt limit in December, but the request has stalled on Capitol Hill. Republicans have historically been reluctant to vote for an increase in the debt limit, while Democrats have blamed the president's tax cut last year for the current crisis.

"Every day, new information is released confirming that the budget surpluses of the 1990s have been squandered and the government is sliding back into bigger debt and deficits," said Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wherever Fischer is... gold is too. So all his budgetary sabre rattling portends some kind of hidden link between the debt ceiling and gold.

Lord knows M3 is already more than $2 Trillion above the debt ceiling.

The June date also matches reliable GATA's insider comments on a key stress time...we'll see.

Pizz
(05/02/2002; 09:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74752)
Banks running for Cover
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNEKpRSOTGVobWFu
Just trying to put a few pieces together.


Dollar falling.

Argentine banking crisis.

Japanese Banking Crisis looming.

Islamic community talking gold backed international currency (again).

And US banking being cut back world wide.


Snippit from above link:

London, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fired 10 percent of its European investment banking staff, while J.P. Morgan slashed 23 percent of its Asian bankers as Wall Street firms pull back from foreign expansion.


Combined with this yesterday:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC

Bloomberg:
05/01 00:11
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years

Now, not trying to be too much of a Cassandra, it sure is starting to appear to me that the beginning of the end of Dollar dominance may be upon us.

The multi-national banks appear to be going into "bunker" mentality.

Conclusion: There can be NO recovery anywhere in the world in the near to medium term with contracting banking.

Now, is every one shoring up for the recession/depression from hades, or is a financial nuke ready to go off?

My mind keeps flashing back to LTCM. It's common knowledge that they darn near started a world wide financial collapse, and LTCM has been called a lemonade stand as compared to Enron, let alone Argentina, and Japan's comming problems. ARE WE THAT MUCH BETTER PREPARED TO HANDLE THIS SIZE OF CRISIS? I wouldn't want that bet.

Gold? It's getting harder and harder to see how they can continue to hold the price down. With the mines cutting/covering their hedgebooks, the shorts have been swimming against the tide. Now, with the dollar dropping too, it has to be almost like trying to swim up a waterfall.

Something has to break IMHO.

Pizz

Simply Me
(05/02/2002; 09:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74753)
Usery
Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)
FWIW: Usury prohibited in Old Testament too....
Both Islamic and Mosaic Law prohibit usury. Hmmm....

Me: True. But the prohibition on usery is often interpreted to apply only to ones own kind. In other words the Muslims were not to charge other Muslims interest. And Jews who charged more than a certain percentage interest to other Jews were looked upon as criminals (much like we view loan sharks today). All other races and religions, however, are fair game.

Simply
RobotGuy
(05/02/2002; 10:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74754)
Prepare DOW, Elliot wave theory is upon you!
RobotGuy
(05/02/2002; 10:16:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74755)
Alas; prepare GOLD, Elliot wave will apply to you also.
YGM
(05/02/2002; 10:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74756)
Thom Calandra...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={EA415BE8-822D-472D-8DCB-F97E3B205FC6}Excerpt...

THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH

Americans: How to wave yellow flag
Individuals slowly accepting gold among investments

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:46 AM ET May 2, 2002




SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Some of us may be sitting at our computer terminals, thinking, "I can't bring myself to buy gold because I think it is un-American. Or anti-economy."

After 9-11, who wants to be un-American?

Gold companies are this year's best-performing stock market investment. Just take a look at the CBS MarketWatch industry analyzer. Yet investment demand for gold, gold coins and gold mining companies still represents only a sliver of the activity in technology stocks.

Investors just the other day exchanged more than $3.3 billion worth of the vaunted cubes. Cubes are the trading slang for the Nasdaq 100 trust securities (QQQ: news, chart, profile) that represent America's faltering tech stocks. But on a good day for gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest producer of the metal, will see only $200 million or so of its shares change hands.

To be sure, the lure of gold is gaining currency. Futures traders of small lots (fewer than 200 contracts) on New York's Comex are net long more than 100 tons of the metal for only the fifth time. Helping is the fact that gold's price is decisively above $300 an ounce, and looking like it will stay there. See related story.

Plus, there are anecdotal signs sales of America's Gold Eagle coin are picking up, albeit slowly. Sales of U.S. Mint gold coins, priced at $318 per Eagle, are still well below levels of 1998 and 1999. See chart.

Cont'd @ Link...
RobotGuy
(05/02/2002; 11:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74757)
Paper Indicators
I've been monitoring a number of small mining company stocks over the course of the last two years, and I've noticed that not until recently are the thought patterns of your tech type investors entering into the PM mentality. We are at the bottom of a semi-parabolic wave pattern created by word of mouth and pain of lost tech monies. As Calandra has pointed out on more than one occasion, there are relatively few investors in the precious metals markets relatively speaking. These investors have proven to the world that they are willing to play the money game on a worthless stock just to be 'hip' with their colleagues. I know a few individuals who scoffed at the idea of investing in PM's a couple of years ago, but I believe they were basing their attitudes on the opinion of the market cheerleaders at the time. People have been beating down the PM markets for years, so much so that there is a grand negative opinion toward the whole idea. This idea, or attitude, is slowly transforming as we see more positive news and recommendations pertaining to the PM markets. By word of mouth the profits made in these markets will be shared and the news will spread exponentially. Perhaps some of the major tech stocks were worth one tenth or less than what they were trading for, but money driven individuals do not care any longer of the value of a company, that type of knowledge requires research. Many of today's investors are only curious to know what the price per share is, and if their favorite cheerleader mentions it in a positive way.
The trend I've been seeing lately with the smaller mining companies indicates that we are on the verge of this 'breaking trend', and no matter what the actual worth of a mining company may be, if it's 'hip' the lemmings will buy. Some people will invest in a mining company without even doing any research. If a company has the term mining in it's title people will buy it even if the focus product is lead.
Some have already been suggesting that a number of mining companies have already surpassed the actual worth in value of stock, but they are assuming that the price of gold will not surpass it's current levels.

Now for you paper haters, it's not all bad for gold. Big players will see the supply and demand side of things and play with both market shares, and physical to achieve their desired goals.


Soon,... Very soon.
Sierra Madre
(05/02/2002; 11:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74758)
Gold graph is very jumpy!!

Hi everyone!

I'm not a chart reader, don't go in for all the "technical analysis" stuff, BUT...

I just checked out today's gold graph at a neighboring site a few minutes ago, and gold is acting very nervous, it seems to me. Jumpy; up/down, up/down; some steep falls tell me that TPTB are fighting a desperate battle to get the confounded yellow metal DOWN, but it won't stay down.

This yeller dawg has his teeth into JPM's arse and the lousy hound WON'T LET GO!

Rather amusing, I must say. Not too sorry for the shorts.

Sierra
Graefin
(05/02/2002; 12:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74759)
Thanks Nickel62 and Hipplebeck...
Thanks for the great posts...and that was just a reminder of what we're up against. I was raised in the United States, but have spent the last year in Germany, an indefinate stay. Once you're out of the fishbowl, the global problems the United States faces with the rest of the world becomes more glaring, more real. Yes, it frightens me a bit to see where the U.S. is headed...and speaking as an American, all of us were raised in a very spoiled lifestyle compared to the rest of the world. Count your blessings and be happy with what you have; you never know when you may lose it.
Peace and Balance
- Gr�fin
Pizz
(05/02/2002; 12:31:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74760)
Sierra Madre
Astute observation for a non technitian and I like your style with words.

Most technical people call for resistance in the 325 range. I don't see that much resistance there other than the current upward trading channel. One thing the tech's forget is that in a major short squeeze (like we have brewing now) the lines don't mean squat. If this thing pops and a few majors start covering, we'll run to 375 - 400 fairly easily, IMO.

Let the bleeding begin.

Pizz

RobotGuy
(05/02/2002; 13:28:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74761)
Going DOWn?? Heheeheeheeheahahahahaaaaa (evil laugh)
YGM
(05/02/2002; 13:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74762)
FINALLY.......Silver Getting on the Media Radar Screen
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=APM6VYBOFU2lsdmVyIt's a start.....I have alot of faith that the Silver Bull will be running amuck within the next few months.....As Gold news eclipses all else at present, Silver too will have enough media attention soon enough...IMHO.....I still refuse to believe Silver will not again trade back at or near 1/20th multiple of Gold as it has done historicaly.
With Gold at $500.00 p/oz.....Hmmmmm! & don't waste breath telling me it's different this time because I still believe Silver "IS ALSO MONEY"!......YGM.
Solomon Weaver
(05/02/2002; 13:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74763)
Silver is money
Hey YGM

There was a comment on the forum that it was sad that "Agentina" was having money problems when their name is a cognate of money in spanish...in French "argent" means both money and silver.

The use of Ag to designate silver in the periodic table comes from Latin roots.....

What I wonder is, which came first silver or money, cause I sense that they have been one and the same for a long time.

POS (poor old Solomon....or price of silver....which ever you prefer)
Pizz
(05/02/2002; 14:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74764)
YGM
Agree with you on silver, but I had to chuckle after scanning the link.

I guess it doesn't matter if they're right for all the wrong reasons. . . . .

With all the talk of recovery, has anyone actually come out and said just what segment of the economy is supposed to lead the way - oh, I forgot the government, now who's going to lend them the money!!!!

Pizz
R Powell
(05/02/2002; 14:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74765)
YGM
Can we only hope for 1/20th dollar evaluation of silver to gold? From CPM, 5/2/02

"Private investors held about 2 billion ounces of silver in 1990, excluding coins, and are now estimated to be holding about 404 million ounces, CPM said. That would be enough to cover the supply deficit for "three to five years," Christian said."

How much gold is available? Don't include coins as the above silver guesstimate doesn't. We'll probably need a multiple of the present prices of gold or silver before coin melt starts to add to supply. I guess we'll have to endure a silver price pullback from $38.60/ounce to $29.40/ounce when coin melt adds supply but IMHO this will be only a temporary downturn before the second leg up to $100+/ounce. With POG at anything less than $2000/ounce we will have exceeded the 20 to 1 ratio!!?
Sound okay?
Rich
And�ril
(05/02/2002; 14:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74766)
Solomon Weaver you ask 'which came first silver or money...?'
Silver was birthed and for billions of years borne about upon the celestial bosom of Mother Nature. Silver, as also gold, silica, iron, on and on; they may be found in corners where no breath of life has ever stirred the fabric of the mind of God.

You say of silver and money 'I sense that they have been one and the same for a long time.'

First was silver, now what of noney? These various atoms of God are apart from money, money being offspring of the fabric weavings of modern Man, but no less wondrous therefore. A subcreation, if you will. To mix them, God's atoms and Man's money, in one thought and use is to nurture the growth of discord as two worlds collide.

Can you find the wisdom to tread the true path of harmony?

Step this way. There is a shortcoming: the Absolute of PROPERTY OWNERSHIP that Money does not, can not, manifest...

It is thus that you would cheapen the original Creation. Proof is deep. Many bones there have lived with what you see here written.
The Hoople
(05/02/2002; 14:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74767)
YGM
Wall Street is right, you need a diversified portfolio. That's why I am 75% gold, 20% silver and 5% cash. I can't predict which metal launches first so I think you need both. Since our hosts here will sell either (silver begrudgingly?) it's worth an occasional mention. Any non-suppressed rational commodity would have long ago looked at the dwindling silver reserves and already have a price explosion priced in. It will probably be $5 the day it goes off the cliff. Talk about the ultimate barbarous relic, in 1999 100# of silver would have only bought 15 or so shares of Amazon. Even today 100# would barely pay for an old beater automobile. Methinks some day 100# will buy my vacation property in the South of France.
Pizz
(05/02/2002; 15:03:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74768)
Beware of slow steady slides
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=1035450&CFTOKEN=31760243&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=713&menugroup=Home&aol=1Good article on invesment advisor sentiment.

Complacency usually means down, more than just physical objects can fall due to their own weight.

Should coincide with spike up in PM's. SM's hanging by fingernails, PM's beatin' on the door.

_____________________

Why don't the gold shorts just buy enough 315 or 320 call contracts and then cover their shorts? They'd probably make money even after the spike pullback - or is this just too simple? Anyone?

Pizz

mikal
(05/02/2002; 15:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74769)
Silver
@R. Powell- "Sound OK?" Yes, that's just fine by me, for starters. Just let us know when you trade out (or in)!..... @Anduril- Great analogy: stars. And isn't it interesting- gold and silver (& platinum?) cannot be made, were never made, and did not originate on Earth. This is because of the extraordinarily high temperatures required to form these elements, temperatures in gaseous condensation. What we have is from comets & meteors.
YGM
(05/02/2002; 15:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 74770)
A Shared Passion......
SILVER & GOLDPossibly wrought from the fusion of the dust cloud that created this beautiful blue planet, who knows....Silver & Gold however created have as all precious things (even Woman) brought joy to some, sorrow to others....It is with a great sense of peace that we the few look to them with clear and unclouded minds to use for the betterment and sustenence of loved ones....We share the passion and we will share the future, we the few.......YGM
mikal
(05/02/2002; 15:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74771)
Can't leave out:
Meteorites and asteroids also carried the elements to Earth, where they are also found in metallic alloys or compounds.
R Powell
(05/02/2002; 15:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74772)
Pizz
Good question.
You asked, "Why don't the gold shorts just buy enough 315 or 320 call contracts and then cover their shorts? They'd probably make money even after the spike pullback- or is this just too simple?"

I think it's brilliant, not legal, but brilliant. Legality or morality has never been a deterrent to their greed in the past, it won't be now. They could also sell put options (the right to sell at a set price for a set length of time) and collect the premium (cost) for these too! They'd then cover their short position, elevating POG well beyond any of the put strike prices and pocket the premium with no liability. All the calls would become in-the-money options and could be spread out for several years to reduce capital gains taxes. They could also corner the market while they're at it and then squeeze the shorts! Oh, what fun, mayhem, and profit could be wrought! Only one problem other than the legal one, is there enough physical gold available to cover their short obligation? If not, are there any lease clauses that would allow them to repay with greenbacks?
Maybe they could establish a gold to copper ratio and repay with copper. They won't find enough silver!
I've never heard or read anywhere exactly how leased metal repayment is settled if the physical is not attainable. Many have asked but I've never seen any reply other than opinion. Anyone know??
With the lack of transparency in OTC markets, the present shorts may already have an exit plan. Or maybe enough money has been safely stored in some secret retirement locations that the exit plan involves no more than a one way plane ticket. "J P Morgan you say? Nope, come to think of it, we haven't seen him or Mr. Goldman Sacks at all since POG spiked up. What's up? Does he owe you gold?"
Rich
mikal
(05/02/2002; 15:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74773)
@YGM
After reading your post I realized I left out a qualfier that I'd meant to place in my first post. That is the birthplace of Au and Ag are distinct from the other elements of the periodic table, including if I'm correct, rare elements like platinum.
Boxman
(05/02/2002; 16:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74774)
Is Blake Blade ghost writing for Puplava?
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmI swear, if the word "grasshoppers" were in this article, I would be convinced that Black Blade had written todays article.

Maybe he is a lurker here?

What next from Puplava, advice on stocking up on PMM's, cash, food stocks, and to get out of debt?
Pizz
(05/02/2002; 16:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74775)
R Powell - Educate me a bit
Illegal?

I don't trade futures, but I've bought and sold a few puts and calls on stocks and indexes, but why couldn't someone who was short futures LEGALLY buy out of the money calls as a hedge?.

thanking you in advance,

Pizz
mikal
(05/02/2002; 16:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74776)
@R. Powell
You ask "how leased metal repayment is settled if the metal is unattainable." It's been said the leasee companies or banks would default with full or partial payment coming from liquidation. That is, if the futures markets, either US or overseas, do not suspend or cease operations.
Pizz
(05/02/2002; 17:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74777)
Comment on Market Comments
I don't know how may listen to all the 'advisors' and 'analysts' comment on the markets during the day, but today is almost laughable.

Nearly all are coming across in total disbelief that the markets are not rallying. Where did these people get their credentials? Out of a Cherrios box? I'm surprised someone hasn't floated the idea that the markets since 911 are lagging indicators.

The reality of the fact that our government has been pumping the numbers and lying to us is about to set in. The PTB need something to blame real quick, their aren't any more rabbits in the hat.

911 delayed investment syndrome sounds pretty good to me. Maybe everyone who's losing money can apply for some sort of government aid. Gee, if we weren't suffering from this syndrome based upon 911, everyone would still be pumping money into the markets and we'd all be rich and retired.

Losing my objectivity over the circus. . . . . .


Pizz
R Powell
(05/02/2002; 17:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 74778)
Pizz
Pizz, indeed you can buy or sell futures contracts and/or options on the same to your heart's content. The intentional manipulation of market prices is what is considered illegal. The exchanges are self regulatory and the obvious question becomes when does a position become large enough to be considered manipulation?
In "Silver Bulls" Sarnoff explains that the Hunt brothers never (in his opinion) squeezed the silver market. The regulators saw a large long position from many sources (some from the Mid-East) and decided that there was a squeeze even though the Hunts agreed to forego adding to their sizeable position, agreed to roll over long positions further out in time away from the current (deliverable) or nearest contract month and even exchanged long contracts for physical from Mocatta (big short at the time). There never was an extraordinary call for delivery. However, the regulators protected the shorts who were the big boys at that point (all the small shorts had been forced out). They did this by increasing the margin requirements and finally ordering that only liquidation orders could be filled. This meant the only way to buy was from an existing long forced to sell. The bid-ask price was therefore always settled at the bid price and the price tanked to finally bottom at $11.70. What determines manipulation? Who makes the rules? I am a trader but physical ownership is, of course, safer that playing in the casino. The allure of the casino is the amount of potential fiat gain that can be held with a small margin but the game's rules seem subject to change by the "regulators" who are supposed to prevent manipulation.
In my opinion, small price moves in all commodities are "manipulated" almost all the time from the local floor traders trying to scalp a few bucks, through the computer activated trades and technically oriented trading programs which will trigger stops causing price movements (channels with support and resistence) and, of course, by the big known and unknown players.
Myself, I try to maneuver among these while buying and selling, selling and buying for small gains while desperately trying to always keep long positions rolling over into the future so that I'll be on board when the big move comes. I also hold physical silver (thanks CPM).
Like yourself, I'm a very small player but I enjoy the game!
Rich
R Powell
(05/02/2002; 18:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74779)
mikal
I tend to think that the reportedly 5000-15000 tonnes of leased gold can not be repaid from existing supply and will have to repaid slowly over time with many contracts rolled over numerous times. I believe the same situation exists in silver with an even smaller chance of being repaid with metal.
I fully agree with you that if the leases are called, many will have to be repaid with assets other than metal. I wonder what qualifications were originally required for leasing. Were T-bills or other collateral put up as assurance? How about gold leased on the condition that it be sold back to the bank that leased it with the further stipulation that the party that leased (and is now paying interest) can buy back the same gold in the future to then repay (in metal) the bank that originally leased. This provides capital for investment to the lessor and interest to the bank on gold that never moved from the vault. The physical gold is never at risk! Of course, much gold has been irretrieveable sold into the market to supply the ongoing supply/demand deficit. With physical default here, I'm sure the banks will grab anything of value they can attach. How can this not raise POG and POS!/?
Rich
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/02/2002; 18:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74780)
Reading the fundamentals.......... because they were there!
If we can remember back that far, the reason interest rates skyrocketed in the late '79, was because the FED had to borrow money on the open market competing for loans with businesses. It absorbed all the short term money supply and brought on a national business shutdown. And the same situation is setting up in coming months. Tax revenue is falling while national debt interest payments are coming due. This fact to me is like the busload of bureaocrats stopped on the railroad tracks to take pictures of America's last urban wilderness. The stock market seems to be trending flat. Individuals are sending in their money into mutual funds while insider selling is preventing the blue chips from rising. So we have seen gold and the DOW rise together, that doesn't really matter much. The serious inversives are:

1. British investment repatriation as they turn to the strenghtening Euro.

2. The US national debt "baby buy my bonds" impending crisis, with falling tax revenues.

3. When Sadam decides to do a cruise-by through the Gaza strip.

4. The Japanese banks collapse while their whole country looses its former business model with an export driven economy in saturated US markets.

The eventual outcome is that the strong dollar policy is being undermined by fundamentals. As Japan seeks to distance itself from the falling dollar, it will be calling out for an asian currency bloc as a "plan B". The deal is already foreknown.........."You want us to lay off the gold buying binge, well then give us the alternative we need to stabilize our region with.......and asian currency bloc."

As anything that developes in Asia the "bottom up method" is how processes begin having a weak central gov't, major corporations form mergers and begin swapping stock, trust builds, then the pressure is put on banks to do likewise. Finally last of all the politicians become the "explainers" of their "own new ideas" that the behind the scenes business leaders told them to say. In any school of fish you'll be hardpressed to find the leader, but all the fish know. The US will put pressure on Japan to selloff this imported gold. For the currency bloc, I think they'd do it. Japan needs to create a stable fiat currency so its people can stop buying gold to appease the US Fed. For the US to loose that chunk of the empire to another currency is better than to loose its whole reserve currency capabilities throughout the rest of the world due to a runaway gold price. However, I think iy would only delaay the foreboding event. We're on a big island from Maine to Georgia with a spoiled population that only cares about getting bread and a circus*, (spelled Nascar). I have to be a realist. We need to see the cards on the table. Japan would rather negotiate to release itself from the falling dollar problem but it has to make many friends in Asia before it can say goodbye to the US as protectorate. The US will say, "If you sell our dollars and bonds, we'll let piracy on the high seas eat your industries for lunch." So since Japan is afraid of China, and Taiwan is afraid of China and Japan, they can't dump the dollars so easily. They want our ships in their waters. They can only sell off bonds and dollars slowly and blame private investors. This is all my own spin from my chair that can spin and my mind that has spun. Looks like gold is going to bounce around 305-308 and slowly lift off into its own radical upswing. I expect doldrums until this gov't debt crisis hits like a baseball through the glass window. And/Or the day will arrive when Barrick and Placer formally announce an end to hedging. They are under pressure now to do this or their stock prices will drop. Feel free to correct or expand on any topic here.

I'd like to hear your comments about what Japan is going to do with failing banks. Good days in gold to all. -GR2
Canuck
(05/02/2002; 18:34:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74781)
@YGM
From yours:

"I still refuse to believe Silver will not again trade back at or near 1/20th multiple of Gold as it has done historicaly"

'Ballsy' call; isn't the silver bull/silver bear debate interesting? I refuse to make a call regarding silver. The bull camp touting that the silver hoard is gone. This sounds most bullish at first glance but let's examine the superhoard of the US many years ago, some 4 billion ounces.
What does it have now, none.

What does this mean?

Well I think it means that the government doesn't need silver anymore and it has sold it. In the barest of terms what does it need silver for, it doesn't need to make anything made of silver, does it??

Why would any government hoard silver? Why not just hold the already recognized metal reserve, gold? The US does not hold anymore silver, so what?

The photography thing bothers me too. Sure there is the debate of 'no silver impact' but who can really confirm the widely divergent numbers. When you walk into the retailers the fact remains that the proportion of camera merchandizing is slanting towards digital. It seems to me that the tradtional film camera's are increasing in price while the digitals are decreasing. Have you noticed this trend?

The other thing is the dealers, one was so bold to tell me that buy gold (insurance/wealth preservation, etc) but silver "will be used as a doorstop." That's from a guy trying to sell me silver. I asked him why, he said "silver has been completely de-monetized, gold is still money in the central banks view.....silver is used to make cheap jewellery and trinkets but gold is still stored in big bars in big vaults.."

The dishoarding of silver will end of course and silver will have a rebound, especially if people run wild in the early moments of mayhem but I don't think we are going to see the traditional 20:1 gold/silver ratio. I bought a significant pile of it after I had piled into gold during Y2K. My thinking was to have 50/50 gold/silver but in the last year I have gone back to gold. I hold (in dollar terms) about 60/40 now and will continue with gold from here on out.

I have a 'buy' on gold and a 'hold' on silver.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/02/2002; 19:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74782)
Silver and Gold futures patterns are totally different...........
The question of "How high can silver go?" Has its answer in the supply and demand equation. At what price do the holders of above ground supply begin selling into the rally to take profits? From our current charts it's like 50 cents. The slow rise up then a big selloff. I don't see a slow buildout rollup in price like in gold. The runaway in palladium from awhile back proves that a non-precious metal can take on precious metal characteristics as an investment medium when palladium is only an industrial metal and silver is an industrial metal with age-old sentimental superstitious ties to gold. Ratios of bygone eras in the US have little to do with the attitude of India and China which still have mega-tons of silver to sell. My question is AT WHAT PRICE will they sell. You assume silver is like a baby raccoon following gold wherever it goes for no reason. Nothing has to follow anything. It's more emotional (their ratio) and has nothing to do with logic, it DOES have alot to do with consumer electronics which aren't going away as long as we have electricity. Society is gadget crazy and that is the ace card of a silver bull.
sector
(05/02/2002; 19:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74783)
@GR2...Japanese Banks
"Whjat will Japan Do About Its Banks?"Nationalize them.

En mass. Since they will not honor uninsured deposits, elderly Japanese [60s and 70s] holding more than $85,000 will lose their life savings...savaged for their frugality.

The pre-April 2003 proceeds from such a nationalization will provide at least $600 Billion in fresh funds to cover the $1.5 Trillion in aggregate bad loans.

If the government waits for April 2003 the move will be a single coup.

Unlike the US, the Japanese people have nothing to revolt with.

The revenge of the Ballots? The LDP will simply proffer yet another Koizumi-style puppet to speak platitudes.

The key element here is that portion of Japanese savers who have already guessed the government's strategy [No doubt with Robert Rubin's counsel] and are quietly moving to gold.
YGM
(05/02/2002; 19:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 74784)
Canuck...
Silver Wonderings.....(that we all share)Canuck, I pretty much agree w/ all you've said and like you hold only a % of AG. (25% in my case) But I do feel it will always be as good as Gold in terms of buying power, only of less value obviously. I try to keep in mind the old adage that money goes where money is. Now we have a few well known examples such as the Buffet hoard and others. But one of my strongest support feeling for Silver upswing is the fact that the Central Fund of Canada, with a major shareholder base of Bankers, Lawyers and other high end financial folks holds over 1.2 Million Oz (last time I looked) of Silver. I'm sure we could come up w/ other PM funds/Hoarders that hold similarly high volumes as well....
Probably I like yourself and others know at the very least if a total financial armageddon or an armed one ever comes about we can use it for Barter at worst.....It's the only way I have f being diversified outside the world of paper..
& BTW>> Thanks to all for entering my 25 cent silver rant :>)
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 19:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74785)
US will likely face 'major' natural gas supply problems
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142622
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 2 -- So far this year, US natural gas production is declining faster than first anticipated, said Raymond James & Associates Inc. in a recent report. And with this fall in gas supplies, gas prices are expected to creep higher later in the year, RJA said: "For the past 6 months, our mantra. . .has been that natural gas will be the key driver of US energy stocks and that lower US natural gas supply will drive gas prices higher."

RJA had considered its earlier expectations that US gas production would fall sequentially 1.5%/quarter during 2002 as "out on a limb," which would result in a 5-6% year-over-year decline in gas production by midsummer. "About a month ago, we were surprised by our preliminary first quarter [exploration and production company] production survey that suggested first quarter production may be down sequentially close to 2% and year-on-year down by 3%. In the past week, however, even that bullish estimate has been eclipsed by the actual production announcements from the E&P companies," RJA noted.

"We now have a statistically significant sampling of US E&P companies that tells us that not only is US gas production falling, but it is falling faster than even our bullish projections," the analyst said. ". . .E&P companies are reporting first quarter 2002 production down 2.9% from the fourth quarter of 2001 and down 6.7% on a year-over-year basis."

RJA noted that while totals will likely change over the next few weeks as more production reports trickle in from other E&P companies, ". . . [I]t is becoming clear that the US is facing a major natural gas supply problem that is likely to lead to higher gas prices over the summer and a potential gas price explosion next winter."



Black Blade: As I have said, we are being set up for a severe energy crisis. I think that it more likely that supply problems will surface this coming winter, however, these analysts think that the supply crunch will come sooner. Drill rig rates have fallen off a cliff and there is very little replacement of reserves. Higher energy costs will hit consumers and corporations very hard. In short � scratch one US "economic Recovery" this year.
USAGOLD
(05/02/2002; 19:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74786)
Canuck, Anduril, Solomon, Hoople, et al
Go back and check the history of silver. Anyone here know the circumstances behind Bryan's Cross of Gold speech? Anyone here know who was one of Bryan's biggest financial supporters (if not his biggest financial supporter)? That was a long time ago, but this analysis addresses the circumstances of Nature that affected the price of silver then and still address it now. By the way, I had a client come into the office to buy some gold at the beginning of my career who remembered seeing Baby Doe Tabor from the window of Denver's Brown Palace Hotel peddling her bike down 17th Street. She was wearing newspaper for clothes. Ten years earlier at her mansion on Capitol Hill, she played hostess to the grandest parties ever seen in Denver -- then and now. By the time she was seen peddling down the 17th Street, her husband, Horace Tabor -- the Silver King -- had gone from rags to riches and back to rags again.

I am not worried about silver from an "investment" point of view, because an argument could be built for it. (I once owned a silver mine -- and a rich one, alas geologically but not financially.) Just like I do not worry about copper from an investment point of view. However, I do have a problem with those who think that silver is somehow a substitute for gold, just like I have a problem with the philosophy that owning a piece of paper that represents a mining company is somehow a proxy for the real thing. Neither are. There is no substitute for gold. Someday, even those who promote the proxies will come to understand the difference -- if they haven't already. There is a place for each, but we shouldn't confuse what each means to the investor.

By the way, I believe the classical definition for "money" encompasses the combination of form and function.

Multiple Choice:

Money is
a) a medium of exchange
b) a store of value
c) a unit of account
d) all the above

Hint: In the modern era, none of the things we call "money" encompass the definition -- not the dollar, not gold, not silver. Interestingly, gold and silver coinage came about because in ancient times only the government (the king) as a disinterested third party could be trusted to act as arbiter in its issuance. Money had to do with weight and purity. Now, because the government cannot be trusted to issue money, savers are forced to purchase gold at weight and purity as a portfolio insurance.

The wheel of history turns. . . . .



YGM
(05/02/2002; 19:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74787)
Google Search....Silver Hoards.....1-10 of 8,360 Items found in .11 sec
http://www.google.ca/search?q=Silver+Hoards&btnG=Google+Search&hl=enJeeeez! Black Blades Viking Ancestors are everywhere here on the first page :>)

Off to read & dream of the Viking plunders for a bit....
YGM
(05/02/2002; 19:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74788)
Blackbeards Treasure...."In Pennsilvania".................OK!
http://www.sru.edu/depts/library/imc/FolkTales/black.htmSpanish silver buried in Emporium, Pennsylvania! Several tons of silver bars from a sunken Spanish galleon were recovered by a Captain Blackbeard (not the notorious pirate, Edward Teach) who hoped to transfer the silver to a British ship at Baltimore. Fearful that others would follow the ship to seize the treasure, it was secretly loaded into six carts and sent overland to reach a friendlier Canadian port. The War of 1812 broke out while the silver was en route and Captain Blackbeard decided to bury the silver in the mountains past Emporium. He left a guard, Colonel Noah Parker, who built a castle in the area and kept the curious away. Blackbeard died before he recovered the silver and legend has it that the silver is still there.

**Hey this (Silver Hoard)is becoming the most interesting search engine find in a long while :>))
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 19:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74789)
Scandals shred investors' faith
http://www.usatoday.com/money/general/2002/05/02/trust.htm
Snippit:

Fired Andersen auditor David Duncan pleaded guilty in April to obstruction charges. The Enron and Andersen scandals are helping erode investors' trust in companies. A drumbeat of corporate misdeeds has helped crush stock prices and eviscerate pension plans. But the biggest victim may be trust � investors' trust in financial advisers, stock analysts and Corporate America. During the bull market, corporations and those who ran them seemingly could do no wrong. Now they're feeling the backlash, in the form of congressional hearings, bankruptcy trials and investor outrage.

Trust keeps the financial system together. Once lost, it can take years for Wall Street to regain it. Signs of how badly trust has eroded are everywhere. Investors are starting to give up on the stock market and are plowing money into their homes instead. And Congress is warming up to write new business regulations. Unless Corporate America moves quickly to regain public confidence, Wall Street could languish for years.



Black Blade: Unfortunately most CEOs, executives, and boards of directors only care about getting ungodly amounts of compensation, fat bonuses, diluting shares, hiring friends, and looting the very companies that they serve for personal gain. Enron, Qwest, Global Crossing, Barrick, Worldcom, Arthur Andersen, etc. are only the beginning. If you choose to play the market, be extremely careful � there are a lot of criminals (wolves in sheep's clothing) out there.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/02/2002; 20:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74790)
Behind the scene in OZ there were only children.
In 1994 I was in Japan and I went into a bank in Osaka to max out a credit card to convert it to Yen as it was ready to rise against the dolar. I saw with my own eyes about 40-50 "kids" like 20-28 in the bank shuffling through index card inventory files with filing cabnets all over the office. Everyone dressed so fine without a computer anywhere. I couldn't believe what I saw. This was 1950 in the twilight zone of finance. It was easy to see how bank loan policy had no way to see the big picture from a protracted view. There were hardly any older people in the whole bank. I never saw such a mess of opened file cabnets and index card files in my life, with stacks of papers everywhere right in plain view of the public counter. Talk about having a lack of ability to assimilate information? no don't talk about it, investorsan. We have money good invested in company alot!
USAGOLD
(05/02/2002; 20:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74791)
Black Blade. . .
Thanks for "Scandals Shred Investors' Faith."

Have a real life story for you as part of today's business which supports your advice. . .

Had an individual call who had a retirement plan. . .I say "had" because now most of it has evaporated. Had the plan at one major brokerage which burned a chunk of it, so he moved it to another major broker where another chunk of it disappeared. Now he says he's going to gold where he understands what he's got. The conversation concluded with a lament we hear often at USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals: " I wish I would have had the wisdom to move it into gold sooner." If you go by market valuations, we still have substantial downside potential on the stocks of many of the top companies. Real market pros like Richard Russell keep telling us this, but so many stay in the stock market despite the losses and abuses. They believe that the "market's coming back" when history tells us that a bear market can last ten to fifteen years. The fact of the matter is that it's far from late in the game as far as gold is concerned. We are doing a very active business in gold retirment plans and I suggest that if anyone's thinking along these lines to contact George Cooper at our offices. He does a lot of this. And those who have made the move are looking alot better now in a Gold IRA than they would have been if they left it in stocks or money markets.
Trapper
(05/02/2002; 20:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74792)
To silver or not to Silver
I have an idea that the next big industrial use for silver will no doubt be super conducting. With in next energy blow up it should get some real usage. I'm not sure about the old 16 to 1 ratio as I am about the public going nuts once the whole PM market comes to life. I bought and sold in the 70s and 80s and the higher the price the hotter the action. Silver is also a small market it won't take much pressure to move it up. I'm also not so sure China has all that much to sell. I don't belive there is any real info as it is still a state secret as what is mined and held. But just ask anyone over say 35 if a pre 1964 dimes has any exta value...yep most still belive silver IS money. Live small.
RJ
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 20:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74793)
April pink slips up 10%: Challenger
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B90D8F74A%2D5B50%2D43C1%2D8EF9%2DE333BA209726%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - Announcements of job cuts by major corporations rose about 10 percent in April to 112,649, according to a monthly survey by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Black Blade: And so it goes, the "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 20:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74794)
Treasury Running Out Of Room to Tap Funds - Bill Come Due On June 28!!!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.htmlU.S. Could Face Debt Crunch on June 28

Snippit:

Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday.

On that date, the government must make more than $60 billion in semiannual interest payments to trust funds, primarily Social Security. While that is a paper transaction, consisting of new bonds, it counts against the government's $5.95 trillion debt limit. Officials said the Treasury plans to start using a variety of budget tricks later this month to keep the government below the debt limit, but they will not be enough to prevent default on June 28 if Congress does not raise the limit.

"The end of June is really the end of the party. There isn't anything past that," Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher said in an interview yesterday. "It is necessary that Congress do this before the end of June. We expect they are going to do it before the end of June. They need to do it before the end of June."


Black Blade: "Crunch Time" as they say. Raise the debt ceiling or be in default. Can anyone say "Argentina"? I knew you could.

Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 20:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74795)
Re: MK � Scandals and IRA's

It gets even worse. Some company pension plans can legally be raided by the corporation to meet debt payments. This usually does not happen unless the company is in deep financial trouble. Obviously the employees get badly burned. Unfortunately most 401K type plans don't have a Gold investment option. However, additional contributions to a traditional or Roth IRA can be made by most everyone. The amount that can be contributed rises to $3000.00 this year and up to $3500.00 for those over 50 years (I think it's over 50) for the "catch up" option � rising $500.00 each additional year (starting this year) to a maximum of
$5000.00. If you have an SEP (as I do) or another self-employment 401K the amount that can be contributed is considerably greater.

The news of scandals and government chicanery is running rampant these days. It appears that things are not getting any better either. When the next energy crisis hits we will see Gold strongly outperform as we have seen it do before. Meanwhile most all other investments will collapse.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 21:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74796)
Insider sell ratio tells investors to 'stay clear'
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20020502/96879.html
Snippit:

Company insiders have recently started betting against a near-term rebound in North American technology stocks, selling down stakes in their own companies, new research shows.

Black Blade: If corporate insiders won't buy their own stock � should you?

Black Blade
(05/02/2002; 21:21:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74797)
The Wildcatters Wildcard
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hastings4.htmAdversaries of the Economy, Then and Now

Snippit:

We are witness to a memorable turning point in the domestic economy. It not only continues its positive momentum but it also renews its resistance against strengthening, contrary developments. The voices representing the economy's threats seem also to gather in number, with more articles than ever published about the coming crash in the housing markets, consumer debts, and corporate defaults.

The housing market's crucial role in the overall economy is getting much attention. The housing market has replaced the stock market as the central force in a new version of The Wealth Effect. Unlike the stock market, however, the housing market involves many tangible parts of the economy such as construction and raw materials, and it has enormous, lasting influence upon consumption. For these reasons among others, the housing market is the single most important market to watch going into the second half of the year. It seems many others think so.


Black Blade: An interesting article on the housing bubble, oil, and various wildcards that can wreck havoc on the economy.


shelllus
(05/02/2002; 21:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 74798)
R POWELL/ PIZZ--TACTIC FOR TRAPPED SHORTS
I HAVE WONDERED IF THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING GOLD STOCKS TO HEDGE THEIR BULLION SHORTS--NOT AS BRILLIANT AS YOUE IDEA, BUT SHOULD WORK
AND IF THEY ARE POWERFUL ENUF MAYBE THE CAN GET THE RULES CHANGED--AS DID THE CBOT DID BEFORE THE HUNTS 'SILVER CORNER' RUINED THEM
goldquest
(05/02/2002; 21:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74799)
This is how they did it before.
http://www.enteract.com/~mgfree/Economics/goldHistory.htmlCould it happen again? Maybe, but not without a new revolution.
The Hoople
(05/02/2002; 22:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74800)
MK, proxies
I don't confuse silver for a gold proxie, however it still seems more of a store of wealth than anything printed on paper including mining stocks. If you want gamble in fiat (I don't) that's fine, you just have to always be aware that nearly all paper is in essence a derivative. Gold stocks are basically that too: they derive their value from the gold that lays mostly underground. When I hear people decry derivatives I wonder how many actually realize even the FRN's in their wallet are little different. They can lose 50-100% of their value in a fortnight. They derive their value from a Federal Reserve deperately trying to convince us they somehow have worth. I guess being long dollars is saying you are bullish on bankrupt,indebted,leveraged government. My early life was spent growing up hearing depression era stories. I learned to always have not only plan A but plan B and C. It serves me well in business and I view silver as my plan B. Plan C involves off-topic subjects that pertain to survival. I would always advise people to focus on gold for wealth preservation. I would never advise anything printed on paper.
LeSin
(05/03/2002; 00:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74801)
Gold Paper "Discounted" just like Cohen's Lamb Chops

A woman goes to her butcher Feinberg and asks the price of lamb chops.
"$2.50 a pound," he tells her.
"But Cohen across the street sells them for $2.00 a pound," she protests.
"Nu, so go buy from Cohen," says the butcher.
"He's all out," she explains.
"Oh," says Feinberg, "when I'm out of lamb chops they're only $1.50 a pound."

When I was a student in California during the 1960s a Hollywood Khosher Deli Owner told me the above joke.
Some how with regard to Gold it is not a joke.

Cheers "S"

Spartacus
(05/03/2002; 00:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74802)
Pressure on dollar forces O'Neill to speak in riddles
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3BO400R0D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
The US may be the most powerful nation in the world, but on the subject of one of the biggest threats to its economy its has almost no voice.

The critical issue of the value of the dollar has forced Paul O'Neill, US treasury secretary, to speak in riddles.
------
The result has been a confused signal. The message emerging from Mr O'Neill has been that the strong dollar policy remains in place. But he has not opposed the recent fall in the value of the dollar, stating that the market should be left to decide the currency's level.
-----
Causing the dollar to weaken at the moment would be particularly easy, given the vulnerability of US asset markets, analysts argue.

The problem would be controlling the speed. A gentle fall in the dollar would be viewed as a blessing for the US by most economists. With consumer spending and corporate investment likely to be held back by debts accumulated over the past few years, a gentle kick to US exports would thus provide a welcome fillip to the faltering recovery.

A sharp fall in the dollar, by contrast, would probably be extremely disruptive for US financial markets, and would risk provoking an exodus of foreign investors from the US market.

This is considered a growing threat by many currency strategists.

The current account deficit, which is running at about 4 per cent of gross domestic product, means that the US needs to attract a net $1.5bn (�1.04bn) in foreign inflows every day to prevent the dollar from falling. But with US equities underperforming the eurozone and Japanese markets, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract investment.

"Even though Mr O'Neill seems aware that the strong dollar policy does not mean very much, he is forced to keep intoning it," says Ray Attrill, director of research at the economic consultancy 4Cast.

"Any change of rhetoric could trigger waves of selling of US assets in the current environment."

Usul
(05/03/2002; 00:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74803)
Xerox drops after debt is cut from junk to crap
http://www.nypost.com/business/42217.htmOnce again the problems of loading up on debt, possibly as a result of the rosy euphoria of a (now fading) mega-bull market in stocks, and an easy money policy from Greeny, are highlighted. Here and there, potential risks in bonds are materialised, and as they do so, interest rates pop up out of the general bond population like tent-poles.

Picture this: A Xerox machine, its LCD display flashing "Out of funding! Please re-fill!" But the funding supplier has the Xerox machine's owner on hold for non-payment of bills.
Spartacus
(05/03/2002; 00:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74804)
Duisenberg says US c/a deficit unsustainable over time, risk to world economy
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_580250.html?menu=business.economy
European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg said the growing current account deficit of the US poses a risk to the world economy.

"I hope it can be contained in due time, because over time I regard it as unsustainable," said Duisenberg speaking at the ECB's regular news conference.

Usul
(05/03/2002; 00:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74805)
Argentinian Tears
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24332-2002May2.htmlGrowing Crisis Leaves Argentines Feeling Helpless

"Argentina's problems are legion -- and, many say, date back to decades of poor leadership and overdependence on the government. Officials here contend the current crisis, however, stems from the nation's corruption-filled transition to a free-market economy in the 1990s, a time when the nation became reliant on massive International Monetary Fund loans and government bond sales to finance overspending"

IMF teats and a dogmatic institution of a "free market" are not a panacea. Once again we see the result of application of formulaic "solutions" without wisdom leading to disaster.
Usul
(05/03/2002; 01:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 74806)
The future fuel crisis?
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/gas_2_000913.html"A line of red London buses are parked unable to move, after trucks blocked the streets around Hyde Park in central London on Wednesday, as the fuel crisis which is gripping Britain continued..."

The army has deployed 80 fuel tankers loaded with reserve fuel at strategic locations across the U.K., a Defense Ministry spokesman said today. The tankers were on standby in case Downing Street required them to distribute fuel for essential services..."

This is not fiction- it really happened just 2 years ago, from relatively small price rises with no actual shortage of supply. Was it the result of genuine protests, or could it have been a "trial run" to test systems and highlight what measures would be needed in the event of worse crises to come, as the Hubbert peak timeline advances? Casting conspiracy theories aside, complex systems and even human relationships often give us advance warnings in the form of seemingly minor upsets ahead of time. Those who understand these warnings and take sensible precautionary measures ahead of time are wise.

There is no shame in taking precautionary measures against a risk even if the anticipated crisis does not happen- that is the nature of risk. Why not have at least a percentage of your assets in a risk-resistant form such as gold?
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 01:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74807)
Malaysia sees small group first in gold dinar trade
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nklr213674.html
Snippit:

KUALA LUMPUR, May 1 (Reuters) - Malaysia said on Tuesday it planned to initially use the gold dinar as a currency for trading with a small group of countries, in the hope it would slowly gain international acceptance. Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the U.S. dollar.

"We are trying to work it out with three or four countries that we have close ties with," said Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who proposed the system last month to reduce the risk of speculation in bilateral trading. "The Arab and Gulf states...maybe they'll accept it," Mahathir told reporters after attending a Labour Day function. The prime minister, who recently visited Libya, Bahrain and Morocco, said the three countries had responded enthusiastically to the plan.


Black Blade: The Gold standard to return? There is a move to bring about the Gold Dianr and Silver Dirham in Dubai to be used as currency as well. Time will tell.

Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 01:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74808)
Leading gold miners cut hedge books
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nl2542803.html
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - Gold miners are racing to ditch their hedge books in a move to take advantage of rising prices for the precious metal, which last week hit its highest in more than two years.

Following is a profile of the intentions of leading miners to reduce the amount of gold sold into forward markets.


N.AMERICA

NEWMONT

World's largest gold producer Newmont Mining Corp has vowed not to hedge a single ounce of its output to take advantage of higher spot prices. But in acquiring Australia's Normandy Mining it now carries hedges on some eight million ounces of future production.

BARRICK GOLD

World number two gold producer Barrick Gold Corp says it will not increase its gold forward sales programme but will put more emphasis on spot sales. Barrick said last month it will sell half its gold output this year at a minimum price of $365 an ounce, with the balance to be sold on the spot market.

The company's hedge book at December 31 included 18.2 million ounces in spot deferred contracts, or 22 percent of reserves. Barrick began hedging 14 years ago when the market allowed producers to lock in higher prices and lower risk by borrowing gold from central banks, which gave it liquidity assurances during a capital intensive time.

PLACER DOME

Close to three years of its annual output of around 2.5 million ounces of gold is estimated to be hedged, according to analysts. Placer has said it will reduce its hedges to under 50 percent of output.

The company said its hedge programme has realised a $65 per ounce premium over a gold spot price of $290, and as of the end of the first quarter this year mark-to-market value of the programme was $235 million at a closing gold price of $303.


SOUTH AFRICA

ANGLOGOLD .

South Africa's biggest miner has cut its open hedge book by 1.7 million ounces to 12.9 million ounces in the first three months of this year. Its hedge book was reduced by another 643,000 ounces by the end of April.

Anglogold had 106,897 kg of gold sold locked in forward prices ranging from 89,939 rand/kg in 2003 to 163,895 rand/kg in December 2011. The rand gold price is currently over 100,000 rand/kg. The group had eliminated the low-price rand gold forward contracts for the rest of 2002.

GOLDFIELDS

South African miner unhedged to gold price. The firm has repurchased the 420,000 ounce hedge position resulting from its new Damang mine in Ghana.

HARMONY

Is unhedged but will deliver production into its newly inherited hedge books from Australian acquisitions New Hampton

(510,000 ounces) and Hill 50 (1.35 million ounces).

DURBAN DEEP

Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) has spent $5.6 million to reduce its hedgebook to below 400,000 ounces as of the end of March and aims to close it by July 1.


AUSTRALIA

Gold hedging by Austrlian miners fell nearly eight percent in the December quarter, according to the Australian Gold Council.

AURION

Australia's newly formed Aurion Gold Ltd plans to reduce hedge exposure in both reserves and annual production over the next five years to gain wider exposure to a rising gold price.

Asutralia's NEWCREST MINING and WMC Ltd have also reduced their hedges.

LIHIR

Papua New Guinea miner Lihir Gold Ltd said last month it would continue to hedge up to a third of its annual mine output of around 648,000 ounces.


OTHER AFRICA

ASHANTI .

Ashanti Goldfields Co Ltd last month agreed interim deals on margin-free hedge trading with all its active counterparties as it restructures its debts.

The company said in a statement that Barclays Plc had reached agreement with Credit Suisse First Boston to take over its Ashanti hedges, and that agreements had been reached with all the miner's active counterparties.

Ashanti in 1999 sustained due to heavy hedging losses when a sharp rise in prices left it holding huge losses on short positions in the forward market.



Black Blade: Only insecure losers sell forward their production. Note that the hedgers have lagged the Gold Bull Market. As a general rule - The lower the hedge position the better the share price performance.

Belgian
(05/03/2002; 01:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74809)
Euroland
Wim Duisenberg (ECB) : ...The US trade deficit is a serious threath to global *Stability* !!!...
The French Le Pen syndrome with call for euro-sortie for french franc...is not on any EMU agenda and is radically out of the question !!!...
Wim is talking and acting firm and confidently !

Next to the unresolved US/WORLD steel dispute, US massive subsidies to domestic agriculture is in sharp contrast with serious efforts (+ results) in Euroland to do exactly the opposite at home !
Add the massive and prolonged confetti-feed to the US war-industry...and make your own conclusions about the differences in currency (dollar/euro) managements.

A major Belgian bank (small in global terms) stopped with its tradition of *silver* and *platina* sales ( Physical ) (to clients)! Nothing changed for Gold ! VAT on silver/platina/other remains 21% and zero % for Physical Gold ! What better evidence can you find for making the difference between "industrial" or "monetary" metal(s) !!!
If there is such a tremendous unbalance in the silver-world...why isn't this metal acting as palladium did ? Don't shoot your humble pianoplayer,please. Thanks.
Usul
(05/03/2002; 01:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74810)
Home loan rates rise
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020502/financial_mortgages_bestrates_1.htmlAs the scattered tent poles of isolated (yield)=(risk reward) spikes pop up, they start to lift the general fabric.

Thanks to Mrw on Kitco for spotting this link.
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 01:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74811)
Barbarous Relic Files - Huge quantity of gold, silver seized
http://in.news.yahoo.com/020503/54/1n6ik.html
Snippit:

Chennai, May 2: The Tamil Nadu police seized 38 kg of silver ornaments, Rs 4 lakh worth of gold jewels and Rs 13 lakh in cash following the arrest of two persons yesterday, Director General of Police B P Nailwal said today. The seizure could lead to the recovery of more gold and silver jewellery, he added.

Displaying the ornaments and cash, the DGP said the arrests and seizures were effected by the special teams formed following the alarming number of burglaries in isolated jewellery shops in Chengalpattu East district from November last.

Stating that four more persons wanted in connection with the robberies were absconding, he said the 38 kg of silver ornaments and the cash were recovered from the arrested persons while the gold jewellery was seized from a receiver. Interrogation of the arrested revealed that they had stolen 8.25 kg of gold jewellery and 75.5 kg of silver totally valued at Rs 40 lakh, he added.


Black Blade: What a waste of time � burglarizing all those shops and only finding barbarous relics. Hmmm�

Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 02:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74812)
Spot Getting A Little Frisky Tonight
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is moving higher along with other PMs and Petroleum. Earlier CNBC had a guest on that said Gold and Oil are not good - therefore the only conclusion was that they are losing their grip ;-)

The unemployment rate of first time claims is still far above the recessionary level of 400,000. The unemployment data for last month comes out in a few hours. Also, Sec. O'neill hinted that the Treasury will not interfere to keep the USD stronger against other world currencies. The USD has weakened as is expected to continue to weaken. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 04:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74813)
Energy Leaders to Meet Privately
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020503/energy_summit_1.html
Snippit:

DETROIT (AP) -- Energy ministers from the Group of Eight nations plan to discuss the need for a stable, secure and environmentally friendly energy supply during the second day of an energy summit.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told delegates Thursday that the world's energy challenges will become more acute over the next 20 years as countries face increased demand and try to balance energy growth with environmental protection. All eight countries face similar energy challenges, including demand, growth and inadequate infrastructure for future needs, Abraham said during a luncheon policy address.

In the United States alone, it's estimated that by 2020, oil consumption will increase by 33 percent, natural gas consumption by more than 50 percent and electricity demand by 45 percent, Abraham said. The infrastructure to handle the increased use doesn't exist, he said. For example, to accommodate the projected increase in electricity demand, more than one power plant per week will have to be built, he said.

Abraham also said that over the next two decades, world oil consumption is projected to increase from about 75 million barrels per day in 1999 to roughly 120 million barrels per day in 2020.


Black Blade: The key point here is that the infrastructure does not exist for expanding production and delivery of energy. Rabid environmentalism and their political influence guarantees that we are headed into a severe energy crisis of epic proportions. The end result is the collapse of most modern economies (except perhaps the most primitive agrarian economies). As always get prepared, get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started.



Spartacus
(05/03/2002; 04:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74814)
Three Cheers for a Weak US Dollar
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020501-wed.html#anchor0
---As the US dollar becomes more unloved with each passing day, investors are growing increasingly nervous about a dollar correction or worse still, a dollar collapse. The main fear is that a steep and sudden depreciation of the greenback could trigger a rush to the exits among foreign investors in US securities and precipitate a spike in US interest rates and a swoon in US financial markets.

We don't buy this doomsday scenario and are predisposed toward the call of our currency strategists. They envision an orderly, broad-based decline in the dollar over the medium term (two to three years), a forecast that nevertheless gives clients the shivers. Recognizing the risks associated with a weak currency, we think market participants are too focused on the negative implications of a weaker dollar. ---

Spartacus: A modest devaluation would be good for America, but then again will it be a mild dollar correction?
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 05:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74815)
U.S. layoff plans rose in April
http://www.msnbc.com/news/746731.asp?0si=-

Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 2 � Layoff announcements at U.S. firms bounced back up in April after a drop in March in a sign that the recovering economy could take some time to gather steam, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Thursday.


Black Blade: There is a growing consensus among corporate CEOs (if CEOs such as Jack Welch, Wayne Huizenga and other guests on CNBC are to be believed) that the unemployment picture will get worse in face of growing layoff announcements, excess capacity, decreased capital expenditures and growing inventories.

RobotGuy
(05/03/2002; 05:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74816)
I know it's around here somewhere.
Charts and graphs would indicate to mine own inexperienced eye that we are on the brink of major shifting. Perhaps Friday is a good day for indecisiveness. DOW will fail in a big way very soon. Of course I don't have my license in cheerleading, so you don't need to take my word for it. Average investor? Getting tired of everyone else doing the profit taking?
I don't know what's going to cause the big dip, but I'll bet my holey t-shirt we're going to see a big dip real soon. Yesterday I wrote "Prepare DOW, Elliot wave theory is upon you," well, it didn't happen yesterday, so you know how much you can trust my ideas.

Have a marvelous day all!!

RobotGuy.
Lamprey
(05/03/2002; 06:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74817)
Unwinding Hedgebooks
I've noticed that many of the hedged gold producers are closing out their hedge positions by "delivering into our hedge book"...

That tells me that whoever is on the receiving end of the forward sale (the buyer) is still getting quite a bargain in price. I'm not seeing much talk about closing out hedge positions by cash purchases (Durban Deep's plans not withstanding).

So, can we conclude that the lack of new forward sales is partly responsible for slowly driving the gold price higher and we won't see a true breakout in prices until a critical mass of these forward sales are "delivered into", thus forcing buyers to pay current market prices for future gold sales?



Golden Bear
(05/03/2002; 06:37:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74818)
Abbey Jo on CNBC after yesterday's close
Amusing quote by Abbey that GS has always used GAAP based analysis to arrive at their forecasts for stocks and the major indices - yeah right!

Her predictions for the major market averages have been ridiculously high for the last 2 years, and still going lower.

Pro forma earnings? What pro forma earnings? Just like the recession that never happened...
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 06:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74819)
Unemployment Soars to 6%


Unemployment jumped higher by 43,000. That is 6% from 5.7% and it will get worse. Unemployment announcements are rising sharply. This is confirmation of a deepening recession � in spite of CNBC drone Larry Kudlow's assertions that "all is well", the unemployed are just lazy bums and that the benefits extension was a fool hardy move by Congress. The "Bone Pile" is growing! In a word "GRIM".

- Black Blade
Golden Bear
(05/03/2002; 06:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74820)
RobotGuy (msg#: 74816) I know it's around here somewhere.
It's almost there, S&P needs to go to 1100-1110 before she turns and heads lower, some time next week... the old gal had to take a breather before slaughtering the next lot of sheeple.

Cheers.
miner49er
(05/03/2002; 06:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74821)
Trade Settlement in Malaysia - Old Wine in New Wineskins...?
http://www.nst.com.my/z//Current_News/BT/Wednesday/Business/20020327025311(Note - I put this together actually back on March 31st, but frankly forgot about it... So I've dusted it off a bit, and decided to throw it out now, for any who care to read it. ALSO -- the link is no longer valid, unless you can search their archives, but you can find a number of snips from these articles back around this time on the forum archives, if anyone finds the need.)

The other day there was some discussion regarding Malaysia's plans to institute a gold payment mechanism to manage settlement in its international trade. The discussion arose out of an interview with Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia as reported by several news organizations.

I admire Dr. Mahathir, as he demonstrates again his willingness to adhere to convictions and principle, even in the face of enormous pressure from the Beast. Although castigated in 1997 for his stance restricting speculative currency movements, his country withstood much of the ravages of the tsunamic lava flows of "hot money" that laid waste the financial landscape of his neighbors.

Looking over the information provided in news accounts of this interview, I saw some things that raised a few questions, though. Dr. Mahathir envisions the use of the Islamic gold dinar to be the means of account settlement in trade between countries. He highlights the general plan of how the gold exchanges would take place. Using a two country example to simplify the illustration, the trade balances of each country are calculated using their respective local currencies, and are then priced in gold, which is employed as payment. It is also used as the medium to conduct these exchanges. In order to reduce the physical movement of gold, these balances wash each other out, so only the amounts in surplus or deficit are exchanged. (Essentially, convert and net...) To further eliminate unnecessary movement, credits or debits can be applied to these imbalances. The assumption here that Dr. Mahathir makes is that the price of gold is reasonably stable. “Its value [gold] may appreciate or depreciate according to the world’s demand and the demand in a given country. But the fluctuation would be minimal,” he said.

Malaysia seems to want to restore gold to its historic prominence, but risks conducting affairs according to the old ways of doing business. They evidently do not wish to fix the price of gold, yet pursuing this course of action, it seems, will make this nearly unavoidable. I would like to analyze this situation in terms of the discussion of money for which we began laying a groundwork the other day [#71878].

A quick review... Money is defined as that means, which takes an individual's inarticulate, and unquantifiable appraisals of things, and translates them into commonly understood terms, so that the individual and others inside this universe of commerce can fluently dialogue about their prices. The currency of the realm is any mechanism that satisfactorily expresses, and transmits, these monetary evaluations. Its primary purpose is to facilitate commercial/financial exchange. Chief properties of the currency must be 1) its ability to dynamically adjust to changes in society's appraisals of these things; and 2) its ability to predictably suspend the considered value held by the parties of any given exchange for the duration of the transaction.

In the past, this was attempted by pegging the currency to a fixed gold ratio (or some derivative of this function). The emerging paradigm seems to want to let currencies discover their value through a truly free exchange ratio to any and all commodities, paramount of which is gold. As we discussed previously, our legacy of commodity-backed currency causes us to confuse the currency instrument with the real wealth denominated by it. This is why we can lend something that has no intrinsic worth, or anything backing it that does, claim it to have stable value, and do it with a straight face. Effectively, our "money" today is nothing more than an irredeemable, you-must-use-it credit claim. And callable, too.

First gold, then gold certificates, gold notes, then contracts for gold not yet born. Then default. We have spiralled so long and far down this vicious vortex, that the intolerable systemic default of the current quasi-gold standard is imminent. Not only will the powers, that exist by virtue of this precarious structure, fight to the death to keep it intact, the more astute among them also recognize the serious threats to U.S. national security (and by extension, global stability) from the instability such a collapse would incite -- especially in this day.

Therefore, the show must go on. This is the inevitable, inescapable result of a system that pegs its currency to a commodity in order to give it worth. The intent may originally be to enhance its currency property of temporarily sustaining value for its immediate transactional use. This quickly gives way, however, to the impression of lasting value being stored in the currency, which then causes it to be perceived as a real asset in the minds of lenders and borrowers alike. This is what ultimately breaks the system. Currency is not meant to be construed as a long term value store. To the degree that it does or should have non-monetary worth, is only to the extent that this property is necessary to make commercial transactions easier for that particular economy. It should contribute to the medium's ability to adequately convey the monetary appraisals held by its users. Otherwise these monetary appraisals end up becoming distorted, and inflexible, as those forces take over, whose interest it is to control the medium's monetary use, by manipulating its non-monetary value. Once currency is wrested from its natural role of expressing fluid monetary processes, and becomes bound in contracts of fixed convertibility, it no longer serves to represent dynamic value concepts, but fixed and arbitrary value illusions instead.

Thus gold in the Malaysia plan (if it works as described in these [very] summary accounts) is set up for a fall. I want to point out that their plan may actually work differently, but owing to the likelihood that the editors undoubtedly perceive things through traditional understanding, they may well have reported the whole affair with the wrong slant. That said, we'll approach our analysis with what we're given.

In the first place, it fails its exchange facilitator role right out of the gate, with concerns about gold's physical movement. The purpose of these account credits and debits, according to the article, is to further diminish the costly transportation of gold. It is obviously inefficient if one designs a process in which gold is to be a vehicle for account settlement, and then has measures put in place before the fact to accommodate transactional obstacles brought about by inherent attributes of the medium.

Additionally, in mandating settlement in gold, we instantly introduce the prospect of default. By permitting credits or debits to be applied against balances ("...the surplus or deficit can be credited or debited against future imports and exports."), it seems we only perpetuate the present dilemma. If the trading partner is gold-poor, then deficits on the part of this country must be met with a gold debt, whose purpose is not for some administrative benefit of efficiency, but genuinely a need for more time to make good. If the gold price fluctuates significantly, and moreover obtains a new, higher plateau, this only exacerbates the situation of the gold debtor. Simply, an agreement that mandates payment with physical delivery fosters an environment of defaults and non-performance, and invites efforts to keep the price down.

Other considerations... Say I run a deficit to you one month, and you agree to let me make up the balance later -- ostensibly for the above-mentioned administrative purposes of reducing gold movement. I compensate you for the delay either with interest payable, or a fee. I do indeed, currently have the gold, but find our negotiated settlement to be more cost effective than the costs of moving the metal itself. Now if the gold price remains stable, or moves in a creditor-friendly direction, then it won't be long before you prefer to just hold onto this paper, as it is effectively stronger than gold, so long as confidence in its convertibility is maintained. It won't be long before this "good as gold" paper is traded, speculated upon, hedged, lent against and lent itself. Then in order to help our speculations, or rescue our over-extensions of credit, assistance will be provided to make sure the gold price doesn't "get out of hand," and we will all agree that it is better for us to manage the indiscriminate volatility of the markets, so as to promote overall stability. Thus we are back once again to fixing (or "managing") the gold price.

Let's look at this yet another way. It appears that transactions will take place in the local currency, and be priced to gold at some point after they are recorded. So now the whole gamut of tricks will be employed to ensure the best exchange rate, from the simple attempts to "time" the transaction's entry to the books, to the panoply of hedging practices currently employed in today's environment. This is so because the transactions are not settled with actual delivery at the time they occur, hence creating all the opportunities to abuse the float that exist today. Since the goal here is to secure the best price, the pressure will continually and always be to depress gold relative to the local currencies.

FOA maintains that the way the Euro courts will avoid these problems is by not enforcing contracted terms that require physical gold delivery. Cash settlement will be the typical workout. In response to the conclusion that this would simply cause contract dealings to take place outside the Euro court jurisdiction, he contends that there will not be any substantial, organized markets in which to do this after the current dollar market cracks up. You could make whatever deals you wanted, but you would not find anyone willing or able to enforce gold delivery, if one party decided to back out. With no one able to bind your counterparty to delivery, you would find it hard to even organize a market to deal in gold paper, as there would be no incentive. The effect of all this, according to FOA, is to drive gold dealing mostly into the physical spot markets. Gold in this environment becomes something that cannot be inflated through credit use (with its subsequent debasement, and defaults). [FOA #78, 6/19/01]

A note that is issued by an entity that owns substantial real-wealth assets free and clear, is genuinely productive, and keeps its debt within check relative to its assets and income, is likely to be used, holding its worth not on the basis of contracted convertibility to the issuer's assets, but simply on the basis of who the issuer is... on his authority... in his good name. This concept is not new and has existed forever. What is different is to contemplate this in the realm of an international currency. FOA discusses this point in addressing some of the very fundamental concepts behind the design of the euro:

"Not long after the US defaulted on it's gold loans,,,, dollars held as gold certificates,,,,,, major thinkers began the long process of forming another world currency. One that would not maintain the fiction of a gold standard with the somewhat fixed gold prices inherent in such a system."

"[ ... ] After operating on a fiat system for 20+ years people are starting to realize that the only thing that backs a currency is the real productive efforts of their people. Yes, over time we always borrow more than our productive efforts can pay back and proceed to crash the money system. But what else is new? (smile)

"We call this a money's "timeline" [ ... ] "

"It seems people saw something else that would make the Euro unique. Paid up assets also stand behind circulating money. Indeed, if someone ow[n]s a $100,000 dollar piece of land , has a good producing job and borrowed $50,000 against his land,,,,,, the world is likely to circulate that debt note as a fiat land backed currency. But, if his gold (the land) is worth $1 million in a free physical market,,, AND RISES FURTHER IF CURRENCY SUPPLY OUTPACES REAL PRODUCTION,,,,,,, and his other debts are relatively low ,,,,,, the same note would circulate just as effectively if the $50,000 was borrowed against his name alone." [FOA #7, 2/26/00]

A currency designed to work in an environment where gold is exchanged free of the impediments of paper manipulations, is likely to be used by those who want physical gold -- as it is not threatened by gold. This is diametrically in opposition to the current reserve currency paradigm. They would seek to use this new currency as the medium with which to conduct their business. It's simply easier (and less costly...).

If an oil producer wants to take partial payment in gold, even a miniscule portion, he simply cannot get it in markets that trade at today's prices. His bona-fide, serious, and completely backed demand, introduced directly to this system would kill it because there simply is not ever going to be enough actual gold to meet this demand at current price levels. But if we should let the price rise to obtain its market level, it would fight this with maniacal desperation, as the entire system relies upon gold at the present artificially low prices. Every kind of pressure, intimidation, compromise and creative forward financing would be deployed, all in an effort to thwart delivery (or at least postpone it into the sweet bye-and-bye). Just do anything to prevent exchange at the offered price...

But isn't the currency supposed to facilitate exchange? It seems if I try to use THIS currency to get the job done, it will prove woefully inadequate for the task. This currency does not freely express the value estimates of buyers and sellers in its markets, so necessary to facilitate transactions. Rather it handicaps and sabotages the effort instead. The policies of its issuers by design do not allow the instrument to perform its job correctly. So, if a new currency ascends from the horizon, whose design is to make the process a lot less painful...

Will the euro be ideal? No, it will have its own pressures that cause its own imbalances, and subsequent destruction. It will have its own timeline... birth, youthful beauty, age and treachery, and ultimately death... But the point is not to create the perfect system, which in an imperfect world is impossible. It is just to identify reality (political, technological, predominant world-views, etc.), and put something together that most successfully accommodates the dynamics at work in that season. That said, it seems a currency modeled like the euro, would better serve the demands of modern international trade settlement. The application of gold is best left as something physically acquired with the surpluses in an open (and free) marketplace.

The Malaysian concept (at least as far as we’ve been introduced to it) is not unlike putting old wine into new wineskins. They correctly wish to allow the free pricing of gold, they also seem to want to elevate gold to its traditional status as "the" premier wealth holding [new skins]. They err, however, in trying to use gold as a currency [old wine]. They confuse the concepts of money, currency, and wealth. They mistakenly wish to make gold function with the dynamic properties of currency, while still attempting to establish in it the longer term, fixed value attributes, required for something you issue paper against. In this day that role is inefficient and inappropriate, as it leaves gold subject to endless manipulation because of these dual conflicting roles.

I know that if you put new wine in old wineskins, the skins burst from the action of fresh fermentation. I don't exactly know what the outcome is of putting old wine in new wineskins, except that it doesn't make sense. (I suppose all you would get is leathery tasting vinegar.) Albeit the interview snippets give only a very removed glimpse into what the Malaysian plan contains. Nonetheless it seems there is a lot of room to "work" the system. However, I'm certain they have thought this through much further than I could even fathom, and have the bases covered. With that, may it be then, that Dr. Mahathir's Malaysia prospers, and their trade surpluses avoid the entanglements of the paper-plying middlemen, and are instead deployed in prudent investment, and in the outright acquisition of this grand metal of the kings...

miner

RobotGuy
(05/03/2002; 06:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74822)
Good or Bad?? I can't figure out what the message is of this article,... I think it's good but,.... Help me out here!
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDE1478EB%2DA044%2D4511%2D877E%2D9ED043574E44%7D&siteid=mktwSnippit;

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest are not all that excited about gold right now. Their average exposure to the gold market is just 37.5 percent, with the remaining 62.5 percent allocated to cash.

If you're a contrarian, their tepid feelings about bullion are good news, both for gold itself and the shares of gold mining companies.

I frankly am surprised that today's gold timers are not more enthusiastic. With the yellow metal exhibiting more signs of life than it has in years, I would have expected nearly ubiquitous exuberance among the gold-timing newsletters. After all, that is exactly how they reacted every other time in recent years in which bullion rallied to the $300 per ounce level.

But not this time. After briefly jumping to 90 percent in early February when bullion rose to the $300 level, the HFD's gold sentiment index has steadily declined to less than half that level today. Yet bullion actually is higher today than it was three months ago.

This is a textbook case of what is often seen at the beginning of sustainable rallies. As contrarians constantly remind us, bull markets don't like company; they thrive when relatively few advisers and investors have jumped on their bandwagon. This is why contrarians were not particularly surprised that gold's rally stalled in mid-February, the point at which virtually all the timers followed by the HFD had become bullish. Today, in contrast, gold at $310 per ounce has fewer cheerleaders than it did three months ago when gold was trading at a lower price.

Incidentally, this sentiment picture for gold is just the opposite of what prevails for equities. In that arena the average adviser has been stubbornly optimistic in the face of a significant decline, which is why I grade sentiment among stock timing newsletters as bearish.
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 06:56:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74823)
"Interesting Times"

Gold is moving higher now, while the USD is dropping like a rock. Petroleum is higher. Speaking of petroleum I will review some literature:

The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

Geodestines: The inevitable Control of Earth's Resources Over Nations and Individuals

The Coming Oil Crisis

Not to mention my studies of the depletion of other resources such as clean water, minerals, and metals. The economy is rather fragile right now and cannot withstand a sucker punch from declining energy. As I have said before, the real sleeper is in Natural Gas as it is the only growing source for electricity. Forget about nuclear, coal, oil, hydroelectric, and renewables. If the production of NG falls and reserves are not replenished � the US economy is toast.

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started. In other words prepare as you would for an extended period of unemployment and even a serious natural disaster. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade
RobotGuy
(05/03/2002; 07:04:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74824)
Go on now spot, do what it is you do best!
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 07:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74825)
Gold Shares Predict A Strong Gold Move?

I see that GOLD, HGMCY, and DROOY been been moving strongly higher and have crowded out a lot of tech names on the ticker this morning. That is usually a positive sign for Gold as shares front run the physical metal. Since the unemployment data was released the POG jumped higher and USD Index dropped hard. Also, market futures are all down and no one is likely to want to hold stock ahead of the weekend in this crummy investing environment.

Could get very "interesting" today. Can't wait to see the look on the "Mummy's" face tonight if the markets tank and the POG rockets.

- Black Blade
nickel62
(05/03/2002; 07:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 74826)
Thank you to all who commented on my post...I appreciate the response..and hope it was helpful. goldquest I read the URL you posted about the particulars of the gold confiscation and found it chilling in it's implications...all here should read it as we are clearly now in a state of national emergency again...
http://www.enteract.com/~mgfree/Economics/goldHistory.htmlThe ramifications for all of us who refuse to have our savings captive of the elite controllers of the judical system are obvious and terrifying.
Rock
(05/03/2002; 07:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74827)
The Level of deception
Hi all, I really burns me up to see people like potato head Neal Cavuto of CNBC and Larry Kudlow who have not deviated from their long held views, there is nor ever was a recession after all the techincal indicators just arn't there. Has these fools been following the stock market lately? How about the unemployment numbers? They announced yesterday that they are going to have Sec of Treasury Paul O'Neil back on CNBC but I missed it yesterday.

I guess after his previous statement or should I say non statement about the dollars future didn't go over that well with the CNBC Cheerleaders and they are blaming him for the down turn and negative sentiment of the dollar lately.

I can't stand the whole bunch of them and I can't wait to see them proved wrong. One stock broker on CNBC recently being interviewed by Maria Bartaloma said he quit and joined the coast guard because his life was threatened. Well thats what happens when you lie to people and people loose their lifes savings. well gold looks good today, go gold. have a great weekend,
Sir Rock
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/03/2002; 07:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74828)
The Bulls are still loose at this Rodeo in gold
Sometimes I get tired of speculation and the "when is it really going to happen?" question. Looking at the simple facts. Gold price breakouts have been occuring in approx. 4 month intervals between points of rapid ascent.

We have factual data within the past year of these periodic POG breakouts:

1st= mid May 2001 was a $22 spike with a fallback of $22

2nd= mid Sept 2001 was a $20 spike with a fallback of $15

3rd= late Jan 2002 was a $25 spike with a fallback of $10

So a plain vanilla prediction.........
Next~late June 2002 says a $30 spike with a fallback of $5.
(this is a lean-bean analysis with no fudge factor involved)

Am I really "making this up?" That is from a 1 year gold chart. The slower your time frame the more meaningful it is. For a more current analysis, we can see each spike was "framed" in a head and shoulders pattern. We have passed midway between the first shoulder and the center crescent midpoint awaiting the next first shoulder of the coming June~~~$30 spike~~~. So I'll give you 10 more trading days for POG to rabbit hop up to 315 not 312, and to go flat across not dropping back much over a buck if at all. Then it does the doldrums till mid to late June when the plaster gets knocked off the ceiling and a big hole is discovered in the basement of the stock market where the meteorite landed. Goldshares should do the "giddy willies" volatility reprieve scaring everyone in them attracting millions of minions. Hedged stuff is going DOWN not up and unhedged stuff is doing the air glide off the snowboard jump. Yes we are in for a wild ride. And the folks in the mountains still do not believe we ever walked on the moon saying it was all done on a stage in Hollywood to fool the American people. Have to love the mountain people though, the folks stashing gold and PGMs.
==========================================================
Because Spot is a good pet but he just likes to sleep alot between hunting seasons.
==========================================================
"Hey it's mid June and I have to pay like a $50 premium per coin now............." -history, be a part of it, buy now and make it happen. -GR2
nickel62
(05/03/2002; 07:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 74829)
Paraoia or just historical awareness?
After having read goldquests post of the URL describing the gold confiscation of Roosevelt in the spring of 1933, I am wondering if the current "war" "emergency" or whatever is really not sufficent justification to confiscate anything the government feels is necessary. My ownership in gold mining stocks and gold coins in a federally liscensed bank safety deposit box(complete with security cameras watching what I put in and take out) is really safe from any future confiscation. If ,as we postulate here, the stakes are as great for the established powers as they appear, it will be a minor step for the government to grab whatever they need to refinance their control. The large gold mines are no doubt aware of this and realize that their resistance would be futile and therefore they have either become part of the group such as Barrick, Placer, and AngloGold or they remain strangely silent like Newmont and the few other majors. The need to put value back into the currency at some future date makes the nationalization of a gold mine a minor issue. If the Congress of the United States could abrogate all of the gold clauses of all the millions of contracts that existed in commerce in the 1930s what is really to stop them from forcing a sale or confiscation of individually held gold in a "crisis" like the war against terroism. The flimsy justifications that the government used in the 1930-1970 period to make ownership of gold a felony is almost unbeleivable in light of the Constitution of the United States. Yet they did it. To hoard became a crime, to not comply with the consfication became a felony. To have property which the banking system could not control was a punishable offense...Amazing.
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 07:52:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74830)
Greenspan: Options Rules Need Changes
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020503/economy_greenspan_4.html
Snippit:

SEA ISLAND, Ga. (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday strongly urged U.S. regulators to overhaul rules on stock options, saying the Enron debacle highlights the need to add clarity to corporate accounting.

The Fed chief said the current system, which does not force companies to expense stock options granted to their officers, distorts the corporate profit picture and poses risks to the marketplace.

"The seemingly narrow accounting matter of option expensing is, in fact, critically important for the accurate representation of corporate performance," Greenspan told a financial markets conference convened here by the Atlanta Federal Reserve.


Black Blade: I agree, these overpaid charlatans posing as corporate officers are looting the companies bank accounts without any accountability. There give the shareholder "the finger" while they and their friends abscond with the cash, ultimately leaving ruin in their wake.

Brett Woods
(05/03/2002; 07:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74831)
Austrian gold coins hot items
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/start.htm

VIENNA (Kyodo) Austrian gold coins featuring images of the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra have logged record sales in Japan since Japanese maestro Seiji Ozawa conducted a New Year concert in Vienna on Jan. 2.

According to Austrian Mint officials, 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) of the gold coins were sold in Japan from January to April, five times the volume registered in the same period last year and in excess of total overseas sales last year.

The gold coin series, first issued in 1989, is known formally as "Vienna Gold Coin Harmony," with the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra as the central theme. Violins and other musical instruments are featured on the flip side of the coins.

Austrian Mint officials said they are pleased with the sales surge in Japan and said Ozawa's New Year concert triggered the popularity of the coins.

Austria sold 20,000 ounces of the "Harmony" gold coins on the domestic market last year and 50,000 ounces overseas, 80 percent of this total in Japan alone, according to the Austrian Mint.

Four different "Harmony" coins are in circulation: 1 ounce, half ounce, one-quarter ounce and one-tenth of an ounce.

According to coin dealers, the 1-ounce gold coin fetches 46,600 yen in Japan at coin retailers.

The Japan Times: May 2, 2002

Golden Bear
(05/03/2002; 08:01:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74832)
nickel62 (msg#: 74829) Paraoia or just historical awareness?
Nickel62,

"To hoard became a crime, to not comply with the consfication became a felony. To have property which the banking system could not control was a punishable offense...Amazing."

Do you think your bullion in that safety deposit box is beyond confiscation? That's not a trade I would bet on...

Paranoia is almost healthy when dealing with beaurocrats!

Cheers.
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 08:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74833)
Global: Debating the Current Account
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020503-fri.html#anchor0

Snippit:

There's a sharp difference of opinion in Washington these days over the implications of America's gaping current-account deficit. The Bush Administration has taken a fairly blas� stance, suggesting that the external gap isn't a big deal -- that it is nothing more than a by-product of a voracious foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets. A few blocks away, the International Monetary Fund puts it quite differently. In its just-released World Economic Outlook, it highlights the US current-account deficit at the top of a list of imbalances that have the clear potential to jeopardize any recovery in the global economy. Who's got it right?


Black Blade: An interesting question posed by Stephen Roach.

BTW, did anyone notice that last months unemployment numbers were revised downward? In March, firms had cut 21,000 jobs, a sharp downward revision from the 58,000 increase estimated a month ago. That's sixth straight consecutive downward revision!!! Can't the BLS get it right? As I have been saying, it is easy to statistically massage the data. Of course after the fact, revising data is quickly forgotten by wall Street.
nickel62
(05/03/2002; 08:06:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74834)
Sign of the times! Closed banks being made into convenience stores, bakeries and 7-11s
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20020503b4.htmHanamasa is among a crop of companies that, thanks to declining land prices and an ongoing rush by merging banks to shut down overlapping branches, have secured a foothold in prime Tokyo locations.

Hordes of other businesses -- from convenience stores to bookstores to restaurant chains -- have also made advances recently.


In what was formerly a bank vault, customers are served "soba" buckwheat noodles at the Ueno outlet of the Takadaya restaurant chain in Taito Ward, Tokyo.

According to the Japanese Bankers Association, the number of branches of city banks, which have realigned roughly into four megabank groups in the last 2 1/2 years, has been steadily declining.

As of Sept. 30, the number of domestic city bank branches stood at 2,408, down 233 from March 1999.

Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 08:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74835)
Dive! Dive! Dive!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
The USD Index is crashing (see graph at link). Meanwhile Gold is moving solidly higher. People are concerned that the much touted "recovery" is nothing but a pipedream. Also the amrket indices are hammered - it's only a matter of time before the word goes out from Washington and Wall Street to: buy! buy! buy! Just as in days of past panics. JP Morgan was famous for propping up the markets and now we have the "Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets".

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
nickel62
(05/03/2002; 08:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74836)
Well it looks like Tokyo
Only has 2175 more bank branches to go...I hope there is a need for that many new noodle shops!
nickel62
(05/03/2002; 08:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74837)
Golden Bear
No, I guess it is not..in fact that was what was so terrifying about the historical account. I was wondering about the real upside of my gold mining stocks as well. As a major part of my retirement and my investment future there positon is of concern as well. And this from a gold stock analyst.
AU_Poor
(05/03/2002; 08:21:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74838)
@Black Blade - Greenspan on stock options
I recall reading that Microsoft would have lost $8 billion last year (instead of a net of $X billion) if stock options were counted as expenses. Conveniently, Microsoft et al ARE allowed to deduct the options against income for tax purposes.

Any guesses how SMs and PMs might be affected by this very remote possibility?

Greenspan is the "good guy" now on record to do the right thing, but I would bet his marching orders are the opposite.
nickel62
(05/03/2002; 08:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74839)
With apologies to Black Blade for adding to his snippits...on the Morgan Stanley Stephen Roach article....
Massive and ever-widening external imbalances can not be financed easily in perpetuity. They require ever-greater volumes of capital inflows that eventually lead to a point of saturation insofar as foreign holdings of dollar-denominated assets are concerned. That's all the more pertinent in light of our current-account deficit forecast of nearly 6% of GDP in 2003 -- and its concomitant external financing need of nearly $2 billion of foreign capital inflows per day. If such a massive external funding requirement doesn't lead to a saturation of the foreign appetite for US assets, I'm not sure what will. Just because America's external financing was manageable in the 1990s doesn't mean it will be so as the as the ever-widening current-account deficit now ups the ante on capital inflows. Needless to say, that conclusion is in direct contradiction to that of the capital-flow-driven justification of the Bush Administration.

Interestingly enough, there are signs suggesting that this point of saturation may now be at hand. As Joe Quinlan and Rebecca McCaughrin have recently noted, the portfolio portion of capital inflows into the United States has slowed dramatically in early 2002 (see their 1 May dispatch, "US Portfolio Flows Update -- Precarious Underpinnings"). Over the first two months of this year, foreigners purchased just $27 billion of dollar-denominated assets, a dramatic reduction from the $100 billion pace in the first two months of 2001. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment into the United States -- the other major piece of the capital inflows equation -- has also slowed dramatically. FDI into the US was $158 billion in 2001 -- only a little more than half the $295 billion average pace of 1999 and 2000. Fully two-thirds of this slowdown is traceable to diminished FDI activity from Europe; that's largely a reflection of a dramatic downshift in the cross-border M&A cycle -- a trend that has continued into the early months of 2002.

One by one, the sources of foreign capital inflows into dollar-denominated assets seem to be drying up. First, it was equities, an understandable by-product of the post-bubble climate. Then it was FDI, reflecting the pronounced downturn in the global M&A cycle. And now it appears that foreign purchases of US bonds are on the wane -- initially Treasuries and, more recently, corporates. Needless to say, this draws the key premise of the current-account defense of the Bush Administration into serious question. To the extent that the capital account is turning, current-account financing difficulties can only intensify. The recent weakening of the US dollar in foreign exchange markets rounds out the picture. This should hardly be surprising -- currencies are the relative price that often picks up the bulk of the arbitrage between current- and capital-account disparities.

Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 09:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74840)
USD Index Plunges!

Well look at that will ya! The USD just tumbled below 114! Gold should respond by rising. Meanwhile, there is absolutely no positive news for the economy. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade
Mr Gresham
(05/03/2002; 09:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74841)
Yumpin Yiminy!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOI think we got ourselves a gusher, Pa!
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(05/03/2002; 10:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74842)
Tanks Roll in MidEast; Gold Rolls on the Comex; Dollar, Dow SinkNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.


____________________________

"For more than 2000 years gold was viewed by generation after generation as a safe haven in times of crises. Gold was an insurance asset, in fact, formuch of the time the only insurance asset. 2000 years\of history is not wiped out within two decades. This wave of global prosperity cannot continue forever, andI believe, history is busy proving that right now as we speak."
Ian Cockerill, CEO, GoldFields

Gold Market Brief (5/3/02) . . . Gold worked its way higher this morning renewing its assault on two year highs as the Labor Department reported unemployment at a 7 year high and Israel mounted an assault of its own on Hamas strongholds in the West Bank city of Nablus. Hopes that some progress was being made in the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians were delivered a set-back when Israeli Prime Minister Sharon stated his refusal to sit down at the peace table with Yasser Arafat, and Republicans in the U.S. Congress began to register their disapproval with Bush administration handling of the problem. There are reports this morning of physical buying in both Europe and North America on the back of these developments and attendant concerns about further weakness in the U.S. economy and the wobbly dollar. U.S. stocks are getting hammered. Gold's advance today is without the help of Japanese gold buyers who are celebrating the Golden Holidays. The World Gold Council reports that buying in India has picked up its gold buying in advance of the upcoming wedding season. Alan Greenspan delivered a blow to the stock market today by calling for the inclusion of employee options on the expense side of corporate balance sheets. Reporting and regulation of option positions could put a large number of already fragile blue-chip balance sheets underwater.

The safe-haven metal held its own all week despite a steady drumbeat of negativity from the bears, and concerted attempts to drive it lower. Owners of the metal seem to be in it for the long term with the steady flow of news on losses, abuses and criminal activity in corporate America adding the backdrop.The firm tone gathered pace this morning as negative news seem to hit the markets from all directions. "Gold still looks like it's breaking out of formation and still showing surprising strength," Alaron's Phil Flynn told CBS Marketwatch. "People are going to more traditional investments on concern in the stock markets."
The safe-haven metal has enjoyed something of a resurgence over the past several weeks in response to tensions in the Middle East, strong Japanese buying, bullion bank and mine company covering, and a general sense that world equities markets still have their worst days ahead. The dollar, which had experienced a selloff last week, steadied some this week, and then tipped its nose this morning and took a dive. Doubts have begun to surface globally about the dollar's long term value despite repeated comments from the U.S. Treasury Department that the strong dollar policy is still in force. The markets do not appear to be convinced and the general lack of confidence on a global scale is showing up in the gold market.
Have a good weekend. See you here, Monday.

Pippin
(05/03/2002; 10:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74843)
Judiciary Crisis ?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27276-2002May3.htmlQuote
WASHINGTON �� President Bush accused Senate Democrats on Friday of "endangering the administration of justice in America" by balking at many of his judicial nominees.

Declaring a vacancy crisis on the federal bench, Bush said, "Justice is at risk in America and the Senate must act for the good of the country."

The sharp challenge to the Democratic-controlled Senate reflected a mounting fight between the White House and Democrats over the shape of the federal judiciary. Democrats have objected to the nominees on many grounds, including their contention that Bush's candidates tend to be conservative.

The standoff is a warm-up for what both sides predict will be an enormous fight if Bush gets a chance to fill a Supreme Court vacancy.
UnQuote
YGM
(05/03/2002; 10:23:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74844)
Gold Lease Rates.......Up, Up. & Away.......
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.htmlMore pressure on the Cabal.....Must be alot of Valium being prescribed in Manipulation world.......Here's hoping our greatly missed Sage..."FOA" is enjoying a sunny beach somewhere and watching the great 'Unraveling' on his laptop!

Sure do wish he'd drop by with some of his perceptual Gold thoughts tho!....
YGM
(05/03/2002; 10:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74845)
XAU.........We will see 90 by June 30th????.........Hmmmmm....OK!
http://www.phlx.com/Up to 78+ again....Go Baby!
YGM
(05/03/2002; 11:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 74846)
Lease Rate Graph...
Was messed up earlier....Cause it 'was' showing huge gain earlier.....Sorry!
Sierra Madre
(05/03/2002; 11:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74847)
The posts today are of exceptional quality!
Nickel62, Miner49er...excellent stuff. Unique.

Miner, I'll have to read carefully - must be going now, will be back later. Mahathir is perhaps the ONLY head of government who is doing any thinking. Truly amazing.

Nickel62, your historical post brought to mind the life of Richard (?) Cantillon, during the John Law episode in France.

Cantillon made a bundle before the bubble popped - he saw it all coming, quite clearly - and slipped out of Paris very quietly. Lived the rest of his life comfortably in London. Unfortunately for him, his cook murdered him one night.

Cantillon wrote THE first book on economics of modern times, which few people know about.

Today, looks like gold is really turning vicious. I do believe we have reached a turning point, and gold will run away from the controllers. They will attempt a comeback - but not to return to present prices, just to control further rises - after a substantial rise, when the weakest holders begin to think of "taking their profits" (those ninnys who still think in dollars). That's when the controllers will mount their counteroffensive, to stem the further rise. They may be successful, but only for a time.

Sierra

nickel62
(05/03/2002; 11:15:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74848)
The Golden Cheesehead memorial post
$313/ounce TOOOOOOOOOOOOO DAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
miner49er
(05/03/2002; 11:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 74849)
Sierra Madre @74847
I will be 100% away from all electronic access after this afternoon for a week, so if you should proffer any comments, please don't take it as rude when you don't hear from me... I will get back after my return.

Also, the paragraph where I hypothesize an oil producer buying in the current market, where it says: "it would fight this with maniacal desperation," the "it" should read: "the system" so as not to confuse "it" with the oil producer...

Thanks for taking the time to read...

miner
RobotGuy
(05/03/2002; 11:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74850)
How long can the FED continue to pump more money into the system to try preventing it's inevitable slide?
RobotGuy
(05/03/2002; 11:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74851)
DOW was practically in freefall this morning until it magically halted around the "psychological" 10000 mark. Hmmmmm.
Mr Gresham
(05/03/2002; 11:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74852)
Unemployment
Gee, and I thought unemployment was supposed to be GOOD for the stock market -- means the Fed will have to lower interest rates (snarf, snarf)...

"When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less..." -- Was that the Red Queen, or Humpty Dumpty? no matter
And�ril
(05/03/2002; 11:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74853)
RobotGuy 'How long...?'
There is no limitation on the flow of money possible. At any flash in time! Choose gold for while you sleep. Choose gold for your weekend. Choose gold when life calls you away from your monitor. You think you can stand toe to toe with the Fed, quicker on the draw than they? If you think that you will not blink first, then you are already dead. This is why gold is held by men of wisdom, by men full of life.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(05/03/2002; 11:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74854)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Golden Goal




"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

YGM
(05/03/2002; 11:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74855)
Gold Hedgers, Silver Miners, Bubble Money
When the Writing's on The Wall.......Bullion moves approx 5 $, ABX & PDG move 2% or less. Two known Silver miners PAAS & Apex move 9+% and 2+% with silver up $0.06....To my tired eyes this appears to have the earmarks of serious PM investment of Bubble dollars coming out of the Dow & Duck...Imagine when all those Bubble Dollars get after the trend. We all remember the buying frenzy of Dot. Com madness, well all that Fed Wallpaper is still circulating and needs a nest.....

FWIW....Some Silver Stats from past PM Bull Markets, from GE Pages....

"Silver's price hit an all-time high of $52.50 per ounce in 1980, subsequently falling to its recent history low of $3.51 in 1991. Among the most prominent precious metals (gold, platinum and silver), silver tends to be the most volatile in price. In the 1979/80 precious metals bull market, silver's price increase was double gold's. And during the 1982 price surge, silver tripled gold's percent price increase. In the 1985/87 rally, silver just nosed out gold (96% to 79%). However, silver's percent run-up in the 1993 bull market was again twice that of gold."


**Now I'm not advocating AG over AU as investment as I believe Gold is going to be different this time, but some of us need a dose of history to justify our holding of Silver in even small percentages of overall PM's.....YGM











RobotGuy
(05/03/2002; 12:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74856)
Anduril
My apologies, I regret to inform you that I am not aware of the entire meaning of your message. I was implying in my previous post that it is very unwise for a nation's government to continue with ineffective and possibly harmful counter measures to prop up a hollow economy. Do I "think I can go toe to toe with the FED?" ? Not sure exactly what is meant by this question. Perhaps I have misinterpreted your intended message, but it seems apparent there are insinuating undertones in your message. I apologise if I have offended you in any way, perhaps it will be wise of me to not participate in this forum, but merely observe.


RobotGuy.
da2g
(05/03/2002; 12:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 74857)
What economic recovery?
Seems like the preferred footware provider to da2g, Florsheim, is unfortunately going out of business. I was able to procure several pairs of Florshiem Imperial Wingtips at a hefty 58% discount, however.

More bones to Black Blades bone pile. Where does it all end?
And�ril
(05/03/2002; 12:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74858)
Clearing the message for RobotGuy
Sorry, not YOU the individual, personally. Use of word 'you' was to be understood as general references, equal to 'citizen' or 'saver' playing dangerously with dollar accounts.

Healthy and happy with gold is better.
The Traveler
(05/03/2002; 13:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74859)
@Nickel62 (#74829)
Do not doubt that your "property rights" will be trampled in the crisis to come.

Since my first visit here three years ago, it has been my constant theme that socio -political pressures will determine your financial survival in the post � dollar world. If all paper burns and the debt supported real estate market collapses (no lenders thus no buyers), how likely is it that the masses ** many of whom have lost their home equity, 401(K) and/or jobs** will demand of Washington a quick fix at any expense! People go berserk now over a 10-cent increase in a gallon of gasoline or a $1 ATM charge. Ponder the social unrest in Argentina � and they have been through this twice in the last two decades. By contrast, Americans are currency crisis virgins!

Remember � less than 1 in 1,000 Americans own any gold coins or bullion and less than 1% of them hold coins or bullion in quantity. Do you not believe their jealous cry will be "Its not fair!" or the campaign slogan will be "To get America rolling again, lets redistribute the PGA's windfall." Your Uncle did it to the oil industry in the late 1970's.

The Fed currently punishes savers with a negative real return to the benefit of debtors. Will not your Uncle also favor the electorate over the PGA in the crisis to come? Bet big on it!

Outright confiscation? Not likely as your Uncle cannot stand behind the legal tender laws as he did in the 1930's. Besides, its simpler just to tax you at a 70% non-capital gains rate. For the youngsters here, 70% was the top marginal rate of the tax code prior to Ronald Reagan's 1981 election.

With the "money laundering" reporting that your PM dealer will soon be required to do � which might now cover numismatic coins and possibly impose a withholding rate to be tendered to the IRS along with his report on your transaction � your windfall will be exposed for your Uncle to tax. Direct barter transactions can easily be taxed as well by incentives to report.

Even if you are lucky enough to have gotten or to get your physical to the EU, reporting requirements there will still tell your Uncle that you had a windfall and thus owe taxes.

Only if the unraveling of three decades of financial experimentation becomes very harrowing will gold be confiscated outright at a "fair" price (smile). Then a two-currency regime will be decreed by executive order - one as a domestic peso-like fiat and the other an international, gold backed currency that Americans will not be permitted to hold even in overseas accounts (SSN and passport numbers will betray you). We will still need to import five million barrels of oil per day despite harsh conservation measures and the producers will want to be paid in something of value. But this too will flop as having twice been burned, the Euro with all its warts will be favored as the new reserve currency by Central Banks whose trade is in a net surplus.

In summary, the welfare establishment hates gold and PGAs and will do all in its power to punish them for their self-sufficiency.

Best regards to all,

The Traveler

Boilermaker
(05/03/2002; 13:12:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74860)
The SM
It looks like the PPT had to get into the market about 10:00AM today to kill a rout. Can any one tell me if this one-sided game can be played long term without risk? It seems there should be a lot of negative paper out there ready to implode. How/when does this happen? Who gets run over?

ax
(05/03/2002; 13:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74861)
USD AX INDEX BREAKS BELOW 99.70MG !

AT THE CLOSE OF GOLD TRADING TODAY IN NEW YORK THE

US DOLLAR AS MEASURED BY THE AX INDEX DROPPED TO

99.69 MG (MILLIGRAMS) OF GOLD
GoldnSilver2002
(05/03/2002; 14:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74862)
People always ask for a date.
If one looks closely at the 1 year chart for Gold,one sees the cabals fingerprints on every rush.As it accelerates upwards suddenly it is pushed down.But lately Gold has responded to every plunge as one last oppurtunity to get some at artificially low prices.Instead of hating the cabal'some of us must toast them.Firstly they allow the average joe to buy in at prices they can actually afford.Secondly,their folly has helped bring about some of the influences which will ultimatley send gold much furthur than if it had been left alone all these years.We always see the day "it" began in retrospect.In my opinion,if one looks closely one can see it has begun.The media wont tell us until wisely they proclaim "we knew it all along",pretending to have warned a clueless public."gold whats Gold?",many will proclaim.

Clearly Gold is starting to Hammer on the castle doors,the support beams are starting to snap,and some of the foot soldiers(shorts,hedgers) are starting to abandon their positions and run to the hills.All we need now is something to happen to the us economy,that "no one foresaw".Enron was the iceberg?Sept 11 was the end of war on terror? The media is telling us the truth?Dont ask for a date,if anyone knew that the twin towers might still be standing,but they arent are they.Gold to the moon?Your damn rights it is and soon!!
Cavan Man
(05/03/2002; 14:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74863)
The Traveler
Thank goodness for dual citizenship.
TownCrier
(05/03/2002; 14:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74864)
The latest personal look at the men behind the big desks
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlSome excerpts from updated commentary courtesy of our friends at Central Banking Publications Ltd.
--------

ALL CYLINDERS MAY SOON BE FIRING AT THE FED
The two unmanned seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors look like they might finally be catapulted back into action, so that the board could be firing on all seven cylinders before long. The empty seats have been languishing uncomfortably in the background while the board has been working overtime with just five members participating. But it is widely reported that President Bush has now singled out two possible candidates for the board: Princeton economist Ben Bernanke and Federal Reserve official Donald Kohn. ...(more)

GERASHCHENKO'S NEW CALLING
Viktor Gerashchenko, may no longer run the Russian central bank, but he still knows how to grab the headlines. With his usual dry wit, he has been poking fun at the snail-like Russian bureaucracy - of which he was once a part - complaining that they were fumbling over his pension application. The press loved it: "If I don't manage to get the pension bonus awarded to former state employees I'll have to work." He said that he was toying with the idea of becoming a road sweeper, and that at least in that way he could realise his childhood dream of keeping Moscow's streets clean - which is more than he did, some say, for Russia's banks.

AND THEN THERE WERE EIGHT
The old-style council of the Bundesbank has undergone sweeping changes as part of changes bringing the bank in line with the new era of the European single currency.... Ernst Welteke - who will remain the president of the bank - in London recently drew on all his years of experience in answering yet another tedious question on the correct euro/dollar exchange rate. It seems that beneath the tough Teutonic exterior there lies a soft and rather muddled man. "I've seen so many exchange rates in my life I don't know what the right one is!" Now that's what Central Banking calls transparency.

HAYAMI DOESN'T SUFFER FOOLS
Masaru Hayami, governor of the Bank of Japan, does not suffer fools gladly. Some reporters, apparently ignorant of the ways of central bankers, thought they might elicit an insightful answer when they asked him whether the market rumours that he may step down before the end of his five-year term were true. "Don't ask such stupid questions" he retorted. Reporters should do their homework before asking central bank governors questions.

(click URL for more)
YGM
(05/03/2002; 15:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74865)
A "Must Read"......Thom Calandra...'The Bull' in 'Bull-ion'
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={C8028807-6DC1-48BB-B233-4375B05E226D}BTW...When I used the Central Fund as a point of interest for Silver ownership awhile back? Well was I ever behind the times. They now hold over 8,000,000 oz of AG....

Read on......Thom's best yet.....
Graefin
(05/03/2002; 16:21:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74866)
Latest from Arch Crawford...5/1/2000
http://www.traders-talk.com/site/show_article.asp?id=498Crawford Perspectives 5/1/2
by Arch Crawford

"The planetary aspects affecting GOLD/Oil tonight are the following:

Jupiter quincunx (150 degrees) to Neptune 9:45pmEDT and
Sun square (90 degrees) Neptune 8:11amEDT

GOLD opens at 8:20amEDT

We believe that a near-term TOP is forming, and may already be in place.
If the aspect power maximizes on Wed. OPEN, there may yet be another POP to new highs for the move by then. The Timing is much better/closer in Gold than in stocks, which may show strongest price moves or tops/bottoms +/- 1-3 days. GOLD often makes the turn within Minutes of the aspects!

In any case, we expect some reasonable consolidation against an overbought condition.

We are selling a portion of positions this afternoon, and will Sell More on Wed. OPEN!

For short term trades, we will actually take new SHORT positions.

For anything longer, we will hold Core Positions in Gold & Gold Stocks, for much higher prices later.

We will attempt to Cover Shorts and reposition long side at undetermined future lows."

Arch Crawford
Crawford Perspectives


- Gr�fin
Rock
(05/03/2002; 16:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74867)
The Traveler
That was a very mind provoking thesis my friend, thank you for your time. I have a quick question for any of you brilliant knights or ladies of the round table. From time to time I have heard at the table that safe deposit boxes may not be a safe place to store our gold in these times where the gov't can inspect and even confiscate our gold should we go to withdraw it during a financial meltdown of sorts. I would assume that many of us has at least some of our gold in those safe deposit boxes.

Do any of you recommed storing all of it at our homes using construction concealment, burying at the farm and so forth. As far as I'm concerned I have a sophisticated alarm system, a huge watch dog, a few high powered weapons and so forth yet I still don't believe in storing the whole enchilatta (which really isnt that much in the first place) all at the ranch. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

And I'll concur with Black blade, store some extra non-perishables at the house and some extra bucks for a few months you never know if and when public services could be shut down for one reason or another. Take care and thanks for everything.

Sir Rock
Graefin
(05/03/2002; 17:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74868)
Rock...it's story time...
A few years back I was employed in a money-handling position. After a criminal investigation regarding the embezzlement of hundreds of thousands of dollars, my employer put new safegards in place, however, those safegards must be logical. As always, I tucked my deposit cash into a regular envelope and marched over to the cashier's office, but after the review of money-handling, my direct supervisor wanted me to use a brown zippered bag with a lock on it. Good god! I remember telling her, "Why don't you just put a siren and red light on my head as I walk with the cash??"
The moral of the story?
I continued to take my cash deposits over in plain envelopes, but varied my routes each time I left. Leave a trail which no one can follow and blend in with everyone else.

Peace!
- Gr�fin
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/03/2002; 17:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74869)
Russian soldiers leave gold behind.
http://www.bluesapphires.net/ladies/mc1593.shtmlI like the contrast between the blue and the gold.

But when it's all said and done,

"Mail picture of boat" still comes to mind.

And,

"Sorry honey I spent all our money on physical gold, so we can't have any kids" because I can't sell it with the premiums that it cost me to get it. I'm feeling blue.-GR2
USAGOLD
(05/03/2002; 17:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74870)
Nickel 62. . . .Your 74829
It is interesting to see the light go on in individual's the way it did for me some time ago. Quite a jolt once the realization sinks in that gold ownership in the United States is a privilege not a right. For a real revelation read "From Constitutional Republic to Corporate State: The Federal Reserve Board, 1931-1934" by Dr. Walker F. Todd (1995) as excerpted in "How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation" by myself and George R. Cooper. In that inclusion as an Appendix to the report, Dr. Todd tells the chilling story of a confrontation between Senator Glass (of Glass-Steagall fame) and Franklin Roosevelt the night before Roosevelt's inauguration.

Senator Glass confronted Roosevelt on his plan to close the banks virtually as his first act as president telling him he didn't have the authority. Roosevelt replied that he intended to get the authority which he promptly did for that and other eggregious acts: On March 3rd, 1933 Roosevelt closed the banks. On March 8, 1933 he requested from the banks a list of all persons who had withdrawn gold or gold certificates from the banking system. On April 5, 1933, citing a "national emergency" (which Glass considered preposterous and Hoover likened to the Nazis setting fire to the Reichstag in order to usher in Hitler's "emergency" rule blaming the fire on the Communists), Roosevelt confiscated Americans' gold. On December 28, 1933 Roosevelt issued an additional Executive Order exempting gold coins minted 1933 or earlier from confiscation as collector items. Anyone who thinks that the precedent does not exist for another confiscation or that the U.S. government under pressing circumstances would somehow by-pass that temptation doesn't completely understand the reasons for confiscation in the first place.

Repeatedly, in the documentation you see justifications like "to protect the currency system of the United States," "private hoarding. . .poses a grave threat to peace, equal justice," etc. In the first confiscation executive order, Roosevelt has the temerity to refer to Americans as "subjects of the United States." Comtemptible as it is, we must understand that governments will do what it takes to survive, Argentina being the most recent example -- and that to me is the real lesson of the "Tears of Argentina." It is also apparent that the gold confiscation did not occur so that the government would end up with some sort of windfall. The gold confiscation occurred so that the government could open the field to pursue its monetary policies without worrying that the population would head for gold in protest and in order to protect itself. How can anyone who comes to these essential understandings say that it wouldn't happen again?

Once again, the key is pre-1933 gold coin ownership. As the study shows, these items traded freely in the United States between the confiscation in 1933 and re-legalization in 1975 We believe they provide the best chance for you to come-in under the radar because precedent gives them special standing. As a small and out of the way market, they were not a threat to government plans in 1933. They will not be threat in the future. We continue to believe that they provide the best chance for investors to hold on to their gold even if we have a repeat of 1933. Note, we say "best chance" not gaurantee.

As renowned currency expert, Dr. Franz Pick said many years ago "It is an idiosyncrasy of governments that although they may prohibit ownership of gold in any form, they are reluctant to touch collections of numismatic gold coins. Today (in the early 1970s), there are some 49 counties which forbid ownership of gold by their citizens, but do allow holding gold coins for numismatic purposes." By precedent, "numismatic" has become synonomous with coins dated 1933 or earlier, as Mr. Cooper goes to great lengths to show in "How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation."

To receive the document in full in pdf form, e-mail

jill@usagold.com

and we will forward it to you free of charge.

The monograph includes an update of Henry Mark Holzer's "Chronology of Documents Relating to Gold Confiscation" by George R. Cooper, JD. Henry Mark Holzer was Ayn Rand's attorney.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(05/03/2002; 17:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74871)
CONFISCATION!
Traveler, if your thesis (confiscation, taxation, property rights trampled, etc.)is any way on the correct path it will go after the dollar burn, WHY should we continue to purchase GOLD coins from our most respected Mr. Kosares at CENTENNIAL PRECIOUS METALS????????????????
From my interpretation of the archives of ANOTHER and FOA, your position on the matter is in direct contrast to theirs!
What information are you privy to that substantiates your claims/predictions. I shall discontinue my purchases of GOLD coins until this matter can be resolved. THANKS in advance! d.j.p.-HOOSIER GOLDBUG.
USAGOLD
(05/03/2002; 17:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74872)
Addendum. . .
I should have added to my post below that there is a misconception among investors that pre-1933 gold coins carry very large premiums over their gold content. That is simply not the case. Please call either George, Marie or myself to discuss the details. Most are pleasantly surprised at how close these items trade to the gold price. Also, they follow the gold price up and down just like bullion coins.

P.S. Sorry for the spelling errors below.
USAGOLD
(05/03/2002; 17:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74873)
Hoosier. . .
Pls read my post below and contact jill@usagold.com for a copy of the report. It's not as bad as you think. It is better to understand the dangers of avalanche and make the proper adjustments in one's plans, than to ignore the dangers and find yourself totally buried. . . . . .
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/03/2002; 17:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74874)
Hoosier Goldbug
The Traveler is right about the big brother "cameras on every corner" future we face. Trust in the outback where in Revelations it says, "the woman flees into the wilderness where she has a place prepared for 3 1/2 years from the face of the beast." It has the speed of the leopard and the teeth of iron with claws of brass.
Buy more gold not less because by HIS grace you can use it to survive! At about the same time the beast goes hard after the free the sun heats up and as the polar ice caps melt and Greenlund becomes farmlund the Mississippi delta is looking like the gulf it ran into. Manhattan becomes Venice. And every oceanfront city on every coastline on earth is like 10-20 feet underwater. So the picture of the boat is important.


So when they talk of gold confiscation, that is elementary and "assumed", all goldbugs who know their history have read about how safety deposit boxes in 1933 had tags put on them, "To be opened only in the presence of a government inspector."

Buy it, hide it, wear it, tell it to your closest kin, but don't expect to be popular with it when hyperinflation hits. The best thing you can do is to get your relatives into gold so they don't end up moving in with you.
PH in LA
(05/03/2002; 18:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74875)
Is the sky really falling?
If we are to believe the "Chicken Littles" of this forum who run around crying "The sky is falling... keep a few month's worth of cash laying around, and plenty of canned food, etc in case everything goes to pot..." all our precious gold will soon be confiscated and/or taxed.

This is pure ego-centric logic at work. Let me re-phrase their positions:

"The main purpose of government is to take everything away from us small (but honest) folks. The small honest citizens must eventually lose everything and the easiest for all concerned is for the government to take it from them... if not by outright confiscation then by 70% tax rates."

But why then did the government not "call in" all the stock certificates during the tech bull market? I didn't see them going house to house calling "Turn in your Yahoo!" when it was at $250. No 70% taxes on profits either. Windfall or not!

Why is it that everything must be painted in such negative terms?
Rock
(05/03/2002; 18:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74876)
Hoosier Goldbug
Don't be alarmed my friend, thats why its important to consider those pre-1933 euro gold coins that USA Gold has and like MK said the premiums are as cheap as that of American bullion. As for me I have disversified my gold portfolio having some of each, a little American bullion and some pre-1933 French Roosters and Swiss Helvitas.

The fact is no one really knows what to expect from our government in times of a monetary crises but if and thats a big IF they were to pull that same stunt as they did in 1933 and decide to confiscate gold at least you would be protected by having some of those pre-1933 coins which would give you a valid argument to keep your gold as anything deemed rare or religous was exempt from confiscation.

Even knowing that the confiscation word is something I dont like to hear that didn't stop me from obtaining gold. If worst comes to worst the gov't buys it back from you anyway so you didnt lose anything but in effect your much better off knowing you have gold to protect yourself and your family and you have a hertiage to pass on to your children in these volitile times we live.

So don't be discouraged and sit on the side line and let a great opportunity pass you by. This train won't be stopping here again so get on and enjoy the ride while the fares are affordable. Nobody and I mean nobody knows what the gov't may or may not do but one thing we know here at the round table, get yourself some gold and you'll be glad you did. Cheers, even with all of America's faults we still live in the greatest country on the face of the earth.

Sir Rock
Rock
(05/03/2002; 18:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74877)
Graefin
"Leave a trail which no one can follow and blend in with everyone else." Good advise Graefin.
Au-some
(05/03/2002; 18:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74878)
Re: Gold Confiscation
I'm all for it. When things get bad enough and the price of gold gets high enough, I say we all march on Ft. Knox and confiscate the governments gold.
What? You think I'm kidding?
R Powell
(05/03/2002; 19:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74879)
Comparisons
I've often heard of the value of one ounce of gold being roughly equal to the cost of a good suit.
Being extra partial toward the poor man's gold I sometimes look for comparisons to the value of one ounce of the white metal.
Today's close,
July silver 461.50
July soybeans 461.25
One ounce silver will buy one bushel of beans with one-quarter of a penny in change. I don't know why I find this interesting but there may be some future value in such trivia.?
Besides, I had to say something before wishing everyone- Happy Weekend!!
Rich
YGM
(05/03/2002; 19:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74880)
The Term "Chicken Little".........
Wasn't that phrase coined.......
by a Wall St Anal-yst a few months before the crash of 29?

Seriously tho as the historical malfunctions of humankind do and will repeat themselves in one form or another thru the ages, they definately will increase in intensity and severity, primarily due to over population and dependancy on modernization of basic living needs....One only has to watch the fools on the "Survivor" series to see how patheticaly helpless a few adults are when deprived of basics for a mere 39 days. With knives, pots, shelter, fire
and a tropical island & sea they cannot even fashion wooden hooks, bamboo fish/crab/shrip traps or dig a pit to trap that fat wild pig. Makes me embarrassed to watch the fools.

Well folks the cities are full of millions of such helpless fools....The sky isn't gonna fall, but people are when times get bad enough....And the dirty 30's won't hold a candle to what we'll get next time....WW 2 was won with a nuke but we've not seen a war fought with them....You don't have to be a fatalist to want to speak out or to be one of God's 'Watchmen'.....There are many such Watchmen out there even tho they themselves may not realize it.....YGM.
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 20:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74881)
Slouching dollar, shining gold
http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/02/markets/dollar_gold/index.htm

The weakening U.S. currency, rising precious metals reflect investors' worries.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The mighty have stumbled and the meek have inherited the Earth. Something like that happened this week in the $1.5-trillion-a-day currency market, which hammered the U.S. dollar, one of the most-clamored for assets over the years. Gold, that perennial cellar-dweller, rose to a new two-year high. Growing concern about the health of the U.S. economy relative to its overseas counterparts has hurt the dollar, which is down about 6 percent against the yen and euro this year. And two years of sinking stock prices have driven investors into tangible assets considered safe havens, like gold.

"I think what has changed is the market's outlook for the U.S. economy," said Alex Beuzelin, chief market analyst at Ruesch International. "The market is now unsure of the economy's ability to sustain its growth rate beyond the first quarter of the year."

A weaker currency brings pros and cons. It helps companies dependent on exports become more competitive since they can sell goods more cheaply in international markets. In addition, a weak dollar boosts overseas profits when those same companies convert sales abroad into U.S. currency. That's also the case for investors buying international stocks. A soft dollar boosts those returns. And strengthening overseas currencies could draw bargain-seeking tourists to U.S. shores.

But for an import-hungry country like the United States, the weak dollar makes imported goods more expensive, raising inflation. That, in turn, could suffocate the fragile economic recovery that the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, is trying to engineer.

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill inadvertently waded into the currency market this week. In remarks to Congress Wednesday, he said the Treasury Department's official support for a strong dollar has not changed. But he also signaled doubts about the effectiveness of government moves to support the currency, suggesting the United States won't try to stop the dollar's recent slide by stepping into international currency markets to buy dollars. Such moves are always risky because government purchases can be ineffective given the huge amounts of currencies traded daily by banks, insurers, companies and other institutions.

As for gold, it touched $312 an ounce this week, the highest since February, 2000. The gains come as investors seek alternatives to stocks. The Standard & Poor's index of 500 largest companies is down about 6 percent this year following two annual losses as Corporate America suffers its worst profit slump in more than 30 years.



Black Blade: The need to hold Gold is ever more important as the USD falls precipitously. It will deteriorate further as the next energy crisis looms on the horizon. The state of California is toying with yet another fuel standard that will raise the costs of energy. Rising energy costs drop straight to the bottom line. Look for a new energy crisis late this year to late spring of next year and energy supply is consumed with little replenishment of reserves. As always, get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities program. Best be prepared that to leech off of others should disaster (economic or natural) hit home. We insure for all manner of calamity and yet there are those foolish people who argue that we should be exposed to other dangers. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. There is no downside to being prepared.
sector
(05/03/2002; 20:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74882)
Who are the Fed?
Judge them by their acts.

In July, 1994 Warren Christopher [Executive Branch SECSTATE] gave Alan Greenspan a letter that authorized him to take two board seats on the Bank of International Settlements [A private corporation]. No other person in US government is allowed to hold such a board seat, let alone make interest rate policy that benefits the private BIS...a flat conflict of interest. The BIS controls vast amounts of gold. The Executive Branch cannot grant to itself powers not granted to it by the Constitution.

A scheme to manipulate gold ensued. It was designed to inflate multiple bubbles and ultimately dollarize the world. In June, 1996 an orgy of US reserves gold selling broke the back of the world gold market, thus smashing the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. Numerous gold carry trades developed profiting many Wall Street banks who are the United States Federal Reserve system.

All the Fed board members knew this...they all approved it by their continued service. They knew the effect on third world nations, they knew there would be collateral damage to real, human victims. Clinton's "I feel your pain" speech from the gangway of his Boeing 747 ranks as supreme hypocrisy...HE drove home the blade of economic ruin in Johannesburg.

The United States Federal Reserve system took, under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, a course of action they knew to be immoral. They decided that the US could not grow in a free market system...that the US could no longer compete on the world economic stage without a rigged system. They did not ask congress, industry or anyone else.

The academic basis for this ideology of corruption was written by Lawrence Summers in 1988 and published in the Journal of Political Economy [Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard]. Robert Rubin front ran the needed interference to fully implement GoldGate.

The massive interest rate derivative book held by JPM was given birth within days of the June 1996 COMEX gold selling orgy...from near zero to a peak of $20 Trillion dollars. Now drastically cut to $16 Trillion presumably in fear of the coming gold rise "disaster".

Incredibly, the entire edifice of the mid and late 90s US economic boom was constructed on the premise of a manipulated gold price. All of it. The tech bubble, the real estate and especially credit bubbles. Many analysts have stopped short of the truth preferring to be impressed by the sheer size of the various financial "structures".

The COMEX gold market rigging had almost nothing to do with trading commodities and its piddling profits. It was "THE ECONOMY STUPID" on steroids.

Now, after the bubbles have started bursting we see deficits because tax receipts were bloated by the false bubbles. We see the beginnings of a true disaster...a failed scheme...a mutated monster gone wide beyond all control.

Alan Greenspan is by inspection an analytical. Their worst fears are to be criticized and they will do anything to avoid loss of face. Destroying the world's number 1 economy is loss of face so we can be absolutely positive he will have to be removed from office and will NEVER admit failure. Lawrence Lindsay is close to the President but he too has economic blood on his hands since he was a FOMC member at the critical junctures of GoldGate. We may not get distress help from him.

So the economic train wreck approaches. The Fed is low on gold to sell and is obviously managing a retrenchment tactic�.first to $310 [As we have just seen]...then to $325, then $350 and on up.

That's their game. The problem is that the spec world knows it and is marshalling all its resources to smash the FED and its cabal. When all their physical has been used up their will be no ceiling to the dollar price of gold.

When judging what the government may or may not do...keep history in mind.



Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 20:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74883)
A Crumbling Earnings Foundation
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=1041646&CFTOKEN=45159887&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=714&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

Investors are slowly beginning to realize that the outlook for corporate earnings cannot come close to supporting excessive market valuations. Although March factory orders rose 0.4%, the key nondefence capital goods ex-aircraft number dropped 3.6%, indicating no rebound in corporate capital spending. Initial unemployment claims fell 10,000 to 418,000, although the prior week's claims were revised upward by 7,000. Since the recent distortions created by the extension of benefits have now worked their way through the system, the plus 400,000 figure remains quite high. Anything over 400,00 usually indicates a declining economy. In addition continuing claims continued to rise while the April Challenger report showed a renewed rise in layoff announcements after a few months of decline.


Black Blade: As one who is on the "Bone Pile" � "I fear no evil" � As I have prepared for the worst and am quite comfy. I have a good supply of nonperishable food and will be doing a lot of fishing in some high mountain lakes and streams before long. While the exposed leeches suffer under these conditions, I look at it as a vacation. I have my PM holdings regardless of what happens to the economy, I am completely out of debt, I have cash on hand, etc. I see that I now have a lot of company coming down the road as unemployment rises, and it will get much worse. I would imagine that those who are prepared such as myself are not worried, while those who are unprepared are living in fear are the pink slips are spread about the offices and the manufacturing floors. I know � it's Darwinian � but that's life. The only person you can count on is you. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


mikal
(05/03/2002; 20:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74884)
Protect yourself!
Ya wanna a collectible? I'll git ya one, make that more din one. Consider protectin yer cash with dis: USofA State quarters slabbed er raw, yer chouse. Proof Silver Eagles, certified MS-69, PCGS er NGC, yer chouse a slab. And my famleez favorit: Colorized coinz like ya ain't never seen!
TownCrier
(05/03/2002; 20:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74885)
Vision and position...
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Cockerill.htmlSometimes' times those who see farther find themselves eventually at the helm for their vision, and sometimes those at the helm see farther due to the benefits of position. And, of course, one does not end where the other begins.

With that, if may prove useful to have a look at these recent comments by new Gold Fields CEO Ian Cockerill. (see link above) (Forgive the small graphs. They are as good as I had to work with, but they are better than the text-only format I've had provided here since Wednesday. --Randy)

Excerpts:
--------
Today I want to talk about a few of the myths about the gold industry, but in the process I would like to give you my perspective of reality as I see it in the business today.

...During March 2001 there was a turning point in the price of gold. What you see from here on out is a gold price coincidently testing new highs and concomitantly creating higher lows.

We are seeing a new trading channel, with a general upwards trend, developing. In my opinion, this is a systemic response to the increasing risk profile of the world. Over this period we have seen an upsurge in interest in gold from retail investors, especially in Japan and Germany as well as institutional investors world-wide.

...If we are living in an era of renewed interest in gold as a reserve asset and, if new mine supply and reserves are indeed going to decline as rapidly as I am presenting to you, where are we going to get the gold from?

At Gold Fields we track approximately 90% of all gold hedge books around the world on an ongoing basis. Let me give you an insight into some of the conclusions that we have reached:

** With currency movements over the past 6 to 12 months, and at the current gold price and exchange rates, a significant proportion of global hedge books are under water for the next few years;

** At a gold price of US$312 per ounce and at current exchange rates, the non-US gold book goes underwater. This is exacerbated for some producers by currency hedges that are also under water;

** Ironically, at higher gold prices some balance sheets start to deteriorate rapidly, owing to the marked to market values of their hedge books. You might argue that being "margin-free" ameliorates the situation; then again, the Bankers may not.

What this demonstrates is that there is no free lunch. The hedging of previous years is now coming home to roost and companies who have pawned the family gold, may have to face serious challenges and tough questions from shareholders.

But it is not only the hedged producers who are facing the music. At levels above US$312 gold price, the entire hedging food chain is at risk, including the bullion banks.

I think it is fair to say that, in this scenario one should not expect any Bullion Bank or Central Bank to extend to a producer with a hedge-impaired balance sheet, the luxury of even more hedges. One knows that the hedging game is over when the Bullion Banks start to get out of the business, as we have seen recently.

.....If everything that I have said today turns out to be reality rather than myth, then the Gold Industry has a very interesting time ahead of it.

...Ladies and Gentlemen, I believe that the gold market is about to experience a renaissance. As an industry we should join together to promote to investors, consumers and central banks alike, a compelling case for gold.
---------

Very good stuff! Be sure to read it all.

R.
Cavan Man
(05/03/2002; 21:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74886)
Hey PH....
Great point! However, I personally think confiscation is likely; at some point anyway. What's different today vs the post London Gold Pool gang is the gold market is really screwed up badly with derivatives. Further, let's not forget about the IRD's. What a mess. Caution my friend.

Your old nemesis....CM
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 21:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74887)
Ruling Could Delay Wyo. Gas Exploration
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11959-2002Apr30.html
Snippit:

Oil and gas interests are reviewing an Interior Department administrative ruling that could potentially delay President Bush's plan to expand coal-bed methane gas exploration on 4 million acres of Wyoming's Powder River Basin before they decide on what steps, if any, they can take. Environmentalists say they believe Friday's ruling sets a precedent that could be applied if they decide to sue to invalidate the current gas leases. "That could throw this whole project off by years if all the leases have to be redone," said Tom Darin, attorney with the Wyoming Outdoor Council.


Black Blade: One more step toward the next energy crisis.
Sierra Madre
(05/03/2002; 21:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74888)
Miner49er: your post this morning No. 74821
About Mahathir: the man is ahead of all other Presidents and Premiers in the world, because he is at least TALKING about gold and silver. Trouble is, the world has been adrift for so long, the old system has been forgotten and no one living remembers exactly how it was set up. So he and his advisers are quite likely to make serious mistakes. Of course, the news reports are tantalizingly vague, and that doesn't help our speculations.

The image of that H G Wells film, I believe it was "The Shape of Things to Come" - ominous title!- comes to mind, where an insignificant despot clothed in fur wants to coerce a young "New Age" pilot who falls into his hands, into getting his old, broken down biplane into working condition. A most interesting film, quite apropos for the present times, by the way. From the 30's. Technology is part of a system, when the system evaporates, so does the technology. Thus, there is no return possible. We're "Outward Bound".

Once a system as complex as the international monetary system of yore has been destroyed, it appears to me that any reconstruction is out of the question. These things are the product of true "Evolution" and take centuries to build up. In politics, there is no such thing as "Reform" or "Return to Constitutional Government".

Destroying an ultra-complex system is like cutting down a giant Redwood. Once it's down, that's it. You no longer have a huge tree, you just have lumber. And you won't have another giant for centuries.

I think that the dollar will HAVE to persist for much longer than we visualize, because there is nothing else, at present. The Euro? Yes, but...what would a real, savage War in the Middle East do to Europe? No oil...kaput!

It is my feeling that the dollar is going to go down the tubes rather quickly, but, it will still be used. It has to be used. The system will be progressively weaker, with more and more patches and stitches, currency exchange controls(?) and other makeshifts. The downfall will be in relatively slow motion (fast in historical terms).

At the end of the road, nations will have to take stock of what to do, on their own. The master, USA, can no longer hold the fort. (The Legions are called back to Rome). Utter chaos will prevail. International trade will stagnate, and
finally, there will be no more beating about the bush. You have gold, you buy our goods. No gold, no goods. Very simple. Or "vely simple".

At that point, the hundred and some odd fiat currencies of the world will compete in devaluations, and some currencies will devalue far more than others, until a new relative status emerges. The more productive nations devalue less, the less productive devalue more.

The way things will turn out will seem obviously necessary when we get to see them happen. Think "simple"! Think "stupid"!

Sorry I can't address the much deeper thinking contained in your interesting post; I must confess it is over my head most of the time. (I'm slow on the uptake).

Some anecdotal comments:

Visiting Houston these days. Commerce SEEMS very slow - is it just me? Tax base on my Texas home went up from $76,000 to $141,000. Hmmmm....it's not going to kill me, but what about the neighbors? Losses on the S.M. or no gains, and taxes go way up? "In a word, GRIM". I've heard that somewhere before...

And lastly: I read where Charlemagne (crowned Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire at Christmas, A.D.800) carried out the most important monetary reform in the history of Europe. Let's see, that was 1,200 years ago, and we haven't seen his like again, yet. Things are not going to be fixed up any time soon.

Maybe we should begin to think seriously about: IN GOD WE TRUST.

Thanks to all for patience in reading.

Sierra
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 21:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74889)
World energy crunch worsening
http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/Science_Nature/0,1113,2-13-46_1176658,00.html
Snippit:

Detroit - As the world's appetite for energy grows, the challenge for all nations will be ensuring that supplies of oil and gas, and the infrastructure needed to transport these fuels, remain stable and secure, US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said.


Black Blade: It's already a done deal. Expect to see the energy crunch get worse with tightening supply.
Cavan Man
(05/03/2002; 22:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74890)
Sierra Madre
Russia sell oil in Europe. Though the dollar settles the trade, a small amount of Euro in tandem completes the bargain.

PS: Charlemagne was overrated. In that age, Irish monaastics played a much more vital role in the evolution of the west. Cheers.....CM
Golden Bear
(05/03/2002; 22:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74891)
A must read for those who value liberty and justice!
http://educate-yourself.org/ronpaultruthfulness26apr02.html
Congressman Ron Paul's TV Gaffe
By Congressman Ron Paul - House of Representatives

�The other day,� I made a huge "gaffe" on national TV: I told the truth about the crimes of the U.S. government. As you can imagine, the ceiling fell in, and a couple of walls too. Congressman are supposed to support the government, I was� told. Oh, it's okay to criticize around the edges, but there are certain subjects a member of the House of Representatives is not supposed to bring up. But I touched the real "third-rail" of American politics, and the sparks sure flew.

�I was interviewed on C-SPAN's morning "Washington Journal," and I used the opportunity, as I do all such media appearances, to point out how many of our liberties have been stolen by the federal government. We must take them back. The Constitution, after all, has a very limited role for Washington, D.C.

�If we stuck to the Constitution as written, we would have: no federal meddling in our schools; no Federal Reserve; no U.S. membership in the UN; no gun control; and no foreign aid. We would have no welfare for big corporations, or the "poor"; no American troops in 100 foreign countries; no Nafta, Gatt, or "fast-track"; no arrogant federal judges usurping states rights; no attacks on private property; and no income tax. We could get rid of most of the cabinet departments, most of the agencies, and most of the budget. The government would be small, frugal, and limited.

That system is called liberty. It's what the Founding Fathers gave us. Under liberty, we built the greatest, freest, most prosperous, most decent country on earth. It's no coincidence that the monstrous growth of the federal government has been accompanied by a sickening decline in living standards and moral standards. The feds want us to be hamsters on a���� treadmill--working hard, all day long, to pay high taxes, but otherwise entirely docile and controlled. The huge, expensive, and out-of-control leviathan that we call the federal government wants to run every single aspect of our lives.

�Well, I'm sorry, but that's not America. It's not what the Founders gave us. It's not the country you believe in. It's not the� country I believe in. So, on that TV interview, I emphasized not only the attacks on our property, but also the decline of our civil liberties, at the hands of the federal police. There are not supposed to be any federal police, according to the Constitution.

Then I really went over the line. I talked about the Waco massacre. Bill Clinton and Janet Reno claim those 81 church members, including 19 children, burned down their own church and killed themselves, and good riddance. So they put few survivors on trial, and threw them in prison for 40 years.

We're not supposed to remember that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms--talk about an unconstitutional agency--rather than arrest David Koresh on his regular morning jog, called in the TV stations for big publicity bonanza, and sent a swat team in black masks and black uniforms to break down his front door, guns blazing. They also sent in a helicopter gunship, to shoot at the roof of a church full of innocents.

The Branch Davidians resisted, and after a heartless siege of almost two months, and after cutting off food, water, and electricity, and playing horrible rock and roll through huge speakers 24 hours a day, the feds sent in the tanks to crush the walls of the church, and inject poisonous CS gas. Now, CS gas is banned under the Paris Convention on Chemical Warfare. The U.S. could not use it in a war. But it could and did use it against American civilians.

�After the tanks did their work on the church, the place burst into flame, and all 81 people--men, women, children, and babies - were incinerated in a screaming horror. Did some feds set the fire? Did the flammable CS gas ignite, since without electricity,� the parishioners were using lanterns? Did a tank knock over a lantern, striking one of the bales of hay being used against the� thin walls as a "defense" against bullets? Or did the Davidians, as Clinton and Reno claim, kill themselves?

�A new documentary- -Waco: The Rules of Engagement- may show, through FLIR infrared photography, FBI snipers killing the Davidians by shooting through the back of the church, where no media cameras were allowed. This film won a prize at the famed Sundance Film Festival. It was made by people who took the government's side, until they investigated.

Whatever the truth, there's no question that an irresponsible federal government has innocent blood on its hands, and not only from Waco. And the refusal of corrupt and perverse liberals to admit it means nothing.

�In my r~interview, in answer to a caller's question, I pointed out that Waco, and the federal murders at Ruby Ridge- especially the FBI sniper's shot that blasted apart the head of a young mother holding her baby- caused many Americans to live in fear of federal power. Then I uttered the sentiment that caused the media hysteria: I said that a lot of Americans fear that they too might be attacked by federal swat teams for exercising their constitutional rights, or merely for wanting to be left alone.

�Whoa! You've never seen anything like it. For days, in an all-out assault, I was attacked by Democrats, unions, big business, establishment Republicans, and- of course- the media, in Washington and my home state of Texas. Newspapers foamed at the mouth, calling me a "right-wing extremist." (Say, isn't that what George III called Thomas Jefferson?)

I was even blamed for the Oklahoma City bombing! And by the way, I don't believe we've gotten the full truth on that either. All my many opponents were outraged that a Congressman would criticize big government. "If you don't like Washington, resign!" said a typical big-city newspaper editorial.

But the media, as usual, were all wet. (Do they ever get anything right?) The average Congressman may go to Washington to wallow in power, and line his pockets with a big lobbying job for a special interest (so he can keep ripping-off the taxpayers). But that's not why I'm in Congress. It's not why I left my medical practice as a physician. It's not why I put up with all the abuse. It's not why I refuse a plush Congressional pension.

�I'm in this fight for a reason. I want to hand on to my children and grandchildren, and to you and your family, a great and free America, an America true to her Constitution, an America worthy of her history. I will not let the crooks and clowns and criminals have their way. I'm in Congress to represent the ideas of liberty, the ideas that you and I share, for the people of my district, for the people of Texas, for the people of America. That's why I'm working to stop federal abuses, and to cut the government: its taxes, its bureaucrats, its paramilitary police, its spending, its meddling overseas, and every single unconstitutional action it takes. And not with a pair of nail scissors, but with a hammer and chisel. Won't you help me do this work?

Not much of the federal leviathan would be left, if I had my way. But you'd be able to keep the money you earn, your privacy� would be secure, your dollar would be sound, your local school would be tops, and your kids wouldn't be sent off to some useless or vicious foreign war to fight for the UN. But Jefferson and the other Founders would recognize our government, and our descendants would bless us. By the way, when I say cut taxes, I don't mean fiddle with the code. I mean abolish the income tax and the IRS, and replace them with nothing.

�Recently, I asked a famous Republican committee chairman-who's always talking about getting rid of IRS- why he engineered a secret $580 million raise for the tax collectors. "They need it for their computers," this guy told me. So the IRS can't extract enough from us as it is! The National Taxpayers Union says I have the highest pro-taxpayer rating in Congressional history, that I am the top "Taxpayer's Best Friend." You know I won't play the Capitol Hill games with the Capitol Hill gang, denouncing the IRS while giving the Gestapo more of your money. Or figuring out some other federal tax for them to squeeze out of you. I also want to abolish the Federal Reserve, and send Alan Greenspan out to get a job.

�The value of our dollar and the level of our interest rates are not supposed to be manipulated by a few members of the power elite meeting secretly in a marble palace. The Federal Reserve is unconstitutional, pure and simple. The only Constitutional money is gold and silver, not notes redeemable in them. Not fed funny money. Without the Federal Reserve, our money could not be inflated at the behest of big government or big banks. Your income and savings would not lose their value. Just as important, we wouldn't have this endless string of booms and busts, recessions and depressions, with each bust getting worse. They aren't natural to the free market; they're caused by the schemers at the Fed. President Andrew Jackson called the 19th-century Fed "The Monster" because it was a vehicle for inflation and all sorts of special-interest corruption. Let me tell you, things haven't changed a bit. I also work to save our schools from D.C. interference. Thanks to the feds, new curriculums not only smear the Founders as "racist, slave-owning elitists," they seek to dumb down our students so they will all be equal. "Look-say" reading and the abolition of phonics has the same purpose, and so does the new "fuzzy" math, in which there are no right and no wrong answers. That must be what they use in the U.S. Treasury! It's certainly what they use in the U.S. Congress.

�But ever since the beginning of federal aid to education and accelerating with the establishment of the rotten Department of Education, SAT scores have been dropping. Schools, with few exceptions, are getting worse every year. To save our kids, we must get the sticky fingers of the feds off our local schools, and let parents rule. That's what the Constitution says, and the Bible too.

And then there's my least favorite topic, the UN. World government is obviously unconstitutional. It undermines our country's sovereignty in the worst way possible. That's why I want us out of the UN, and the UN itself taking a hike. After all, the UN is socialist and corrupt (many votes can be bought with a "blonde and a case of scotch," one UN ambassador once said). It costs many billions, and it puts our soldiers in UN uniforms under foreign commanders, and sends them off to unconstitutional, undeclared wars. When Michael New, one of the finest young men I've ever met, objected to wearing UN blue, he was kicked out of the American Army. What an outrage! Not one dime for the UN, and not one American soldier! Not in Haiti, not in Bosnia, not in Somalia, not in Rwanda. I know its radical, but how about devoting American military efforts to defending America, and only America?

Such ideas, said one newspaper reporter, make me a maverick who will never go far because he won't go along to get along. Darn right! What does "go far" mean? Get a big government job? To heck with that. And I won't sell my vote for pork either. When I walked through the U.S. Capitol this morning, I got angry. The building is filled with statues and painting of Jefferson, Madison, and the other Founders. Those great men sacrificed everything to give us a free country, and a Constitution to keep it that way. When I was first elected, I placed my hand on the Bible and swore an oath to uphold the Constitution. That's exactly what I'm fighting for. But such ideas drive the liberals crazy. That's why I badly need your help. I've been targeted nationally for defeat. The Democrats, the AFL-CIO, the teachers union, big business PACs, the trial lawyers, the big bankers, the foreign-aid lobbyists, the big media, and the establishment Republicans want to dance on my political grave. The Fed, the Education Department, and the UN are anxious to join in. They can't stand even one person telling the truth. And they're terrified when that truth gains the people's support.
The Traveler
(05/03/2002; 22:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74892)
The Ongoing Currency Wars

Just a few quick thoughts.

First consider the many legal precendents already in place.

Should America be in imminent danger of losing its reserve currency status and the "exhobitant privledge" that trades paper dollars for real goods made abroad (read: What? You want us to pay as we go?), do you not think your Uncle will go to ANY lenghths to defend the US$? Progressively trampling the rights of less than 1/10th of 1% of the electorate will be seen as a small price to pay for the vaunted American way of life? Think of this as a delaying tactic in the defeat to come.

Next, can you logically dismiss the above if you believe in the existance of the Plunge Protection Team or the Gold Cartel that GATA fights resolutely?

To confiscate Yahoo or any other high flying paper in the absensce of a national crisis is ludicrous. First it would effect to many of the electotorate and second - Who wants more paper? But all sellers paid taxes on their YAHOO gains.

Second, BUY all the physical gold your understanding permits. However, unless you are prepared to hold gold for generations, you also need to consider how you will eventually reap your NET rewards.

Time reveals all mysteries.

Best regards,

The Traveler





Mr Gresham
(05/03/2002; 23:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74893)
Golden Bear -- Thanks!
Damn! I'm gonna make the liberal side of me (what's left of it) write a check to help keep Ron Paul in office.
Black Blade
(05/03/2002; 23:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74894)
Mailbox bomb letter text
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/05/03/pipebomb.letter/index.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The following is the wording of a letter found with a pipe bomb in a mailbox in Scott County, Iowa. It is not known if it matches letters connected to other mailbox pipe bombs:


Black Blade: Now there's another nutcase on the loose dropping pipe bombs into mailboxes. We still don't have the guy mailing Anthrax either. Quite a strange letter too.
Waverider
(05/04/2002; 01:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74895)
MZM Growth Plummets
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/mzm.htmSnippit:
"All throughout 2001 the rate of growth in the crucial MZM money supply was rocketing northward. The year-over-year MZM growth rate exploded from 7.7% at the dawn of 2001 to an almost unbelievable 22.0% in early December 2001!

Even though today the rate of growth of MZM is finally plunging from December's stratospheric heights, MZM is still growing far faster than it has in recent history. Over the past 20 years the average US MZM growth rate has been 9.4%, seemingly quite high in light of US economic growth but still low compared to the latest weekly MZM year-over-year growth reading of 13.1%."

Waverider: Following a review of the seven primary daily datapoints for current financial events, Adam Hamilton provides an overview of money growth trends and economic implications thereof. A good read!

Also, a BIG thank you to each and every poster here. I've been away on business and have particularly appreciated accessing cutting-edge information just by scanning the forum. Kudos to everyone for your great work.
Topaz
(05/04/2002; 05:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74896)
Towny re: Cockerill
Randy, it's as if Mr C has been reading/posting here for several years - all good stuff EXCEPT the industry sponsored "certificates".
I don't doubt his good intentions but the entire article could be viewed as touting soon to be announced Industrial Gold paper as a primary driver of higher POG... I hope he's right and we sail off into the sunset under a steadily increasing paper Gold price to live happily ever after......but imho, it aint gonna happen!
Hipplebeck
(05/04/2002; 06:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74897)
(No Subject)
I have been struck lately that the way the economy works these days reminds me of that bridge in Washington some years back that got into harmonic resonance because of the wind and tore itself to pieces.
I believe a slower and stable rate of growth through the gold standard would solve this, but it is very hard to be patient with slower growth.
I sometimes wonder of mankind itself will ever become mature enough to solve these social problems.
Hipplebeck
(05/04/2002; 07:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74898)
gold
It is natural that gold be the instrument that destroys the present paper system.
It is it's role. It has done so over and over through out history.
Can The New World Order boys pull victory from defeat?
I don't think the've got a chance, but I am sure they are going to make everyone suffer.
The world is becoming more polarized, not more consolidated.
Economic power is shifting east.
mikal
(05/04/2002; 08:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74899)
@Hipplebeck
Appreciate your observations. I agree that the world is polarizing in some ways. Politically and economically. But it seems to be a fallout stage in a cycle of great change, with a positive outcome essential for survival and progress. There are increasing competitive trade barriers, subsidies, and tariffs/duties on imports, currency devaluations, repatriation of investment dollars, foreign policy stalemates, unilateral wars on "terrorists", etc. Solutions will appear from every direction, some new, some old. But the world's common interests are revealed and improved by the internet, cultural and scholarly exchanges, and coexistence in the face of human and environmental mismanagement, hatred, and an overgrown military/industrial complex.
mikal
(05/04/2002; 08:35:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74900)
Gold's role
Another way in which the world's common interests are revealed and improved- Gold. Its growing, visible place as a wealth preserver from Europe to Russia with its Chervonet and trade coins back in circulation, China and its exchanges, central bank purchases, and age-old investment demand, India, Far East, Middle East (Near East) to Latin America, Africa, North America, Australia, and all Islands and points between. A renassaince of gold and its reputation would naturally benefit the people of the euro, dollar, dinar, ruble, yuan, yen, rand, peso, etc.
Econoclast
(05/04/2002; 09:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74901)
Great Postings by everyone yesterday!
Thanks so much to everyone involved.
USAGold is "the place to be".
Have a Golden Day!
Cavan Man
(05/04/2002; 09:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74902)
Note comment about Yen
Top Financial News


05/04 11:07
Dollar's 6 1/2-Month Low May Spur Hedging: Currency Outlook
By Geraldine Ryerson-Cruz


New York, May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's drop to a 6 1/2- month low signals it's time for foreign investors in U.S. securities to hedge against more losses in the currency, say strategists at Merrill Lynch & Co.

Mounting evidence that a recovery is losing pace in the world's largest economy has cooled demand for U.S. assets and pushed the dollar down for five weeks against the euro, the longest slide in almost nine months. The dollar fell to its weakest level since Oct. 10 at 91.78 U.S. cents per euro.

The decline is probably the start of an extended drop in the dollar's value, and poses a ``risk to foreign holders of U.S. bonds'' in particular, said Thomas Sowanick, chief global fixed- income strategist at Merrill Lynch, the world's biggest securities firm by capital. He recommends placing hedges against a 5 percent decline in the dollar.

The U.S. currency has already lost 5 percent of its value against the euro and 4.3 percent against the yen this quarter. While most U.S. Treasuries climbed this week, yields on the benchmark 10-year note are at 5.06 percent, lower than 10-year German bonds, which yield 5.12 percent.

``If money just stops coming into the U.S. it would be very negative for the dollar, as well as for the financial markets,'' Sowanick said. Fixed-income investors are ``looking at alternatives away from the U.S. and starting to sharpen their pencils, whereas the currency managers are already starting to'' sell dollars in anticipation of further declines, he said.

U.S. Employment

The currency also fell a fifth week in six against the yen, to its lowest level since March 7 at 126.86 yen per dollar. Against an index of the euro, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar sank to its lowest level since mid-October.

The dollar's losses accelerated after the government said the U.S. unemployment rate reached a 7 1/2-year high of 6 percent in April, adding to evidence an economic rebound may be slower than projected. Separate reports showed declines in consumer confidence and weaker-than-expected manufacturing.

Although a government report Monday showed U.S. gross domestic product gained at a 5.8 percent rate in the first quarter, growth will likely taper to a 2.5 percent rate for the year, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

That would put the U.S. growth rate closer to the dozen- nation euro economy, which the OECD estimates will grow 1.8 percent this year.

German Strike

``People are starting to have doubts about the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global recovery, and that's hurting the dollar,'' said Larry Kantor, head of global foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank. ``Right now there's significant momentum to sell the dollar.''

Two of the three major U.S. stock indexes fell this week, taking the Nasdaq Composite Index 3 percent lower following a 7.4 percent drop the previous week.

``The combination of a weak economy, U.S. asset markets not performing very well and the Federal Reserve on the sidelines is a bad recipe for the dollar,'' Kantor said. Still, J.P. Morgan isn't changing its forecasts -- for 90 cents per euro and 127 yen by the end of the month -- until there are more economic statistics to confirm growth is ebbing.

An expected strike next week by Germany's second-largest labor union, IG Metall, may fuel concern about prospects for economic recovery in Europe and damp some demand for its currency, economists said.

Too Fast?

Some traders and analysts said the dollar may pause from its losing streak against the euro in coming days as one measure of the currency's weakness, the relative strength index, signals dollar sales won't maintain their recent pace.

The index calculates the degree daily losses outpace daily gains in order to identify possible turning points in a currency's price. The dollar-euro exchange rate fell to 25.53 on the index, its lowest since the euro began trading in January 1999. Readings between 20 and 30 imply the momentum of the currency's decline will stall, according to analysts.

In another indication expectations may have overshot the need to sell dollars, speculators have amassed a record amount of futures bets that the currency will fall further. That means fewer speculative traders are left to sell dollars.

Record Bets

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission shows speculators held 31,472 long euro futures contracts in the week ended April 30. Those contracts would gain in value as the dollar declines.

Some traders also said declines against the yen will subside because Japanese officials may step in to weaken their currency. Japan's authorities have encouraged a weaker yen to boost profits exporters earn on overseas sales, as the country struggles to emerge from its worst post-war recession, analysts said.

Mazda Motor Corp., which exports two-thirds of its products, in April said it gained 32.5 billion yen more in the fiscal year ended March 31 than the previous year, because the yen was on average 13 percent weaker against the dollar.

Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said Thursday that while there was no change in currency policy, Japan will watch foreign-exchange markets closely.

``There is no need for the yen to strengthen,'' said Kuroda, according to Nikkei English News.


Cavan Man
(05/04/2002; 09:56:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74903)
Captain your own vessel.
Top Financial News


05/04 10:44
Treasuries Maturing in 5 Years or More May Fall: Bond Outlook
By Vivianne Rodrigues


New York, May 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries maturing in five years or more may fall next week as the biggest quarterly government debt auction since 1999 swells the supply of the notes.

The Treasury plans to sell $22 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday and $11 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, part of an increase in sales needed to finance the first budget deficit in five years.

``The weak state of the government's finances shows that borrowing is set to soar,'' said Chris Rupkey, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitusbishi Ltd. The additional debt supply may ``help push Treasury prices down.''

Analysts say the Federal Reserve will indicate at a policy meeting Tuesday that it doesn't plan to raise interest rates for several months, sparking gains in notes maturing in two years.

The 3 1/2 percent note maturing in 2006 gained for the fifth week in six this week, trimming its yield 1 basis point to 4.36 percent. Its yield has fallen 46 basis points since March 22 as investors have pared bets on the Fed raising rates in the next few months. The 4 7/8 percent note maturing in February 2012 was little changed this week, leaving its yield at 5.06 percent.

Analysts expect the Fed next week to say the country's economic recovery remains fragile, indicating it won't start reversing last year's rate rises until the second half of the year. The Fed will leave the benchmark overnight rate at its 40- year low of 1.75 percent at Tuesday's meeting, according to all 20 primary dealers, banks that trade with the Fed, surveyed by Bloomberg News.

`No Way'

``There's no way the Fed will start rising interest rates as long as unemployment remains high,'' said David Kotok, who manages about $500 million in bonds at Cumberland Advisors Inc., in Vineland, New Jersey. ``Investors will have to keep in mind that short-term interest rates will be very low for the remainder of this year and that inflation is next year's problem.''

A government report this week showed the jobless rate rose to a seven-year high of 6 percent in April, fueling a rally in two- year notes, as the recovery prompted people to enter the labor force in search of work.

The 3 3/8 percent note due April 2004 -- the most sensitive to Fed rate changes -- gained 1/8 Friday to 100 13/32, cutting its yield 6 basis points to 3.15 percent, its lowest since Feb. 28.

``If the Fed delays raising interest rates until August, short-term and intermediate Treasuries will have a good breather,'' said Mike Mullaney, who manages $2 billion in government and corporate bonds at Fiduciary Trust Co.

Economic Reports

The yield on the August federal funds futures contract, a gauge of expectations for the average overnight rate for that month, fell 6 basis points Friday to 1.885 percent. That's 1.5 basis points below the level that suggests traders fully expect a quarter-point increase at the Fed's Aug. 13 meeting.

Economic reports next week are expected to show inflation, running at an annual 1.5 percent, will remain tame.

The Labor Department is expected to report productivity in the U.S. grew at a faster pace in the first quarter, a sign the economy has room to recover without triggering higher prices. The Labor Department's measure of how much work an employee performs in an hour probably rose at a 7 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, compared with a 5.2 percent rate in the last quarter of 2002, according to those surveyed.

On Friday, the Labor Department is also expected to say prices paid to U.S. factories, farmers and other producers rose 0.4 percent in April, down from a 1 percent increase in March.

``Inflation is nowhere to be seen and I doubt it will be a serious problem this year,'' said Anthony Karydakis, senior economist at Banc One Capital Markets Inc. ``The manufacturing sector is under pressure to keep costs down and with productivity at such high levels, it will take some time until we see prices really picking up.''

Mr Gresham
(05/04/2002; 11:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74904)
I-Bonds and Savings
http://www.savingsbond.gov/sav/sbirate2.htmSavers get another kick in the rump. I-Bond rates have fallen from nearly 6% a year ago, and 4.15 (I think it was) during the past 6 months, to 2.57% now. Oh yes, inflation (at .56%) has been vanquished; you needn't worry, says the keeper of the gov stats. (snarf, snarf)

From all sides, savers are being funneled and driven toward they-know-not-what destination. Anyone got a clue, for those-who-would-be-savers?

Most of the time, maybe even most of one's lifetime, one seeks out productive or growing asset vehicles, denominated in the reliable currency of the time. Most of the time.

Then there is a point in the cycle where one's aspirations must pull back -- both from the vehicles and the currency medium -- and await the implosion of both.

I don't spit into the wind, and I don't paddle my canoe up the rapids. And once I figure out which way the tide is going, I'm on it.
YGM
(05/04/2002; 11:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74905)
Malaysia & Gold Dinar....
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2002/5/2/business/din1≠wspage=SearchThis could very well signal an end to US dollar hedgemony, especially when one considers the ramification for OIL if all Islamic nations follow suit and do business in Gold backed Dinars.....Gold backed paper or 'Airy Nothing'.... Chances are we'd see gov't intervention over Western citizens aquiring banking services in Islamic Banks alot faster than we'd see any Gold Confiscation of private hoards.....
compwiz4u
(05/04/2002; 12:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74906)
Parabolic Move

I think Gold's starting to go parabolic.
The corrections are short and the rebounds powerful, while the trendlines are getting steeper.

Friday' surge was a killer as it just blew through resistance.

$325 Gold isn't that far away now.

If we hit it by the end of May, it'll really show that we're accelerating.
If that occurs, then I'd say we could see $350-400 in short order.

A bullish Barron's interview today with Price Headley supports my view. Headley has a new technical tool called an "Acceleration Band," which spots big parabolic moves. He recommends GOLD(GFI), AEM & NEM in that order.

He says, "If Gold holds above $300, there's potential for a real explosion up."

We're there now, so enjoy the ride as this could be fun.




Black Blade
(05/04/2002; 15:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74907)
Gold expected to rise to US$320 this month
http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20020504/119952.html
Snippit:

"The increased buying of gold in Japan has raised the visibility of gold as an investment," said Brian Kennedy, president and chief executive of Meridian Gold Inc., a Reno, Nev.-based gold miner. Gold will probably climb to "at least US$320" this month, said Tim Mercer, general manager of Clinton Properties, a Hong Kong investment management firm.

Black Blade: Sounds good.

Nice day so far - Off to fish for another limit.


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/04/2002; 15:27:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74908)
Almost no one's charts go back to 1979............................
A interesting scenario is setting up. Tom Calandra is beginning to hype gold but to say the metal should eclipse the shares in the next move. (technically correct but a little premature). The metal will outperform the shares eventually because of the greed of the mining companies with their interest to issue more shares and dilute their floats (# of outstanding shares). Hey, what is paper to do, but act like paper. First it goes up then it goes sideways and down. ECO and NEM ARE ISSUING more stock right now. Sure looks good at $29.95. Sort of lousy performance for an unhedged major miner wouldn't you say? Major miner and minor midget means nothing. What matters is supply and demand. Unlimited supply means the rallies are rigged. They let it come up when they want it to. So expect the same thing to hit the others eventually. "Yes, we will get more reserves"........they will issue more shares and pay too much for reserves just to look good on paper. It's a paper game. The bank in the monopoly game has unlimited funds. ALL paper games have rules the players use against the house but seem to catch the masses. Perception becomes reality in the mania-matic papergold world. The small traders scared themselves into the shares on Friday while relieving all the underwater positions of everyone else. Now they are all bought in with goldfunds seeking to take some early profits off the table. To the average proficient chartist the looks of an overextension are apparent. The cabal has only one card left to play. They will attack the shares and attempt to "teach these defectors a lesson". The short attack already started and will continue until the leading issues get knocked down. (I suspect) Then once the initial setback occurs, they'll cover with the panicked longs fodder. Then the next wave of shorters are the ones to get trapped. The most important thing for the next rally is to have shorts trapped overnight with major news hitting afterhours. "Those who observe lying vanities forsake their own mercy." And the greed of men was terrible in those days.
The more they fall back, the better. We need shorts to get shorter on the Comex and in the shares. I fully believe this will happen because the shorter's mentality has been so well reinforced from profits from the falling Nasdaq. The lemmings are all in short mode and it would make no sense to go long with extended patterns like we have in the shares.

"General Custer.......you go down there!" But what our reverse barometer scout said was the simple truth. He will go down there shorting into his own slaughter.

Like Pavlovs dogs after puppy chow being captured for financial experimentation.

The whole rally is only 1/4 to 1/3 over. Tom Calandra already has shorting recommendations out on Barrick and Placer. The bulldozing over the longs at these high levels will continue and then after they hit the main gas line its all going to blow up.

The national debt with a falling dollar and falling tax revenues with a trade deficit that won't quit..........sounds like the summer of 79. This movie begins showing June 28.

The Chinese say put time in your favor so you can win through non-action. That is how the Russians beat the Germans in WW2, they simply let the Germans in by retreating and then let the coldness of winter wipe them out. We let the shorts in and the fundamentals are going to wipe them out. Actually we don't have a choice. If you have an extension for your snorkel you may need it if your stuff goes underwater. Just hang in there as we're all going to be looking at the fish. But when the gold shorting Egyptians are found dead on the shores the Red Sea will have already have parted. You cried before so you get to laugh. They laughed before so soon they'll cry.
Aristotle
(05/04/2002; 16:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74909)
Don't miss this one from the Globe and Mail! "Is U.S. dollar losing its currency?"
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/B/20020504/wusus?hub=businessBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory_Bus.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wusus&date=20020504&archive=RTGAM&site=Business&ad_pageHere's the flavorful beginnings of this monetary feast served up in today's paper:


---START---
The U.S. dollar, the most successful brand name in monetary history, lost yet more ground to other brands yesterday, raising questions about whether it has traded on its name too long.

It hit six-month lows against some its major competitors, notably the euro, which could someday challenge it as a world currency. This time it did not take its Canadian counterpart down with it.

In Chicago, economist Paul Kasriel noted that the dollar's popularity has allowed the United States to import and consume more than it makes and exports, and to run up almost immeasurable external debts.

"The rest of the world advances the U.S. more than $1-billion [U.S.] a day and has been doing so for some time now, and perhaps it is looking at the return that it's been getting on those advanced funds," he said an interview.
----END----


He goes on to make a good point for the benefit of the general public which is old stuff for us, pointing out a situation that is merely an extension (maybe "parallel is a better word) of the same reality faced by the bullion banks. Through this great forum we've been beating that idea into people's heads for many years now. Here's what Kasriel says, picking things up later in the article.


---START---
"In some senses, the U.S. is like a banker to the world."

There is always a danger of a run on the bank, he said, although the United States is blessed in a way that financially crippled Argentina, for example, is not.

"Argentina had a lot of debt denominated in dollars � not nearly as much, of course, as we do, but nevertheless a lot of debt. Not the only difference, but one difference,between the U.S. and Argentina is that the U.S. can print those dollars. Argentina could not."
----END----


And neither can the bullion bankers print their way out of a real run on their bullion-denominated business. The best they can do is reallocate the Gold on hand to maintain the illusion, and try to cover everything over with a blanket of paper Gold proxies to bewilder the marketplace in the hopes of buying enough time to survive the run. Much of the evolutionary history of money and banking has been driven by the marketplace (both the banking institutions and its customers together) coming to terms with the ebb and flow of runs survived and runs failed.

From the old days of local banks through to state and national banking systems, we all know where we now stand -- with an international network (Association) of bullion banking operations that are of necessity now bound together in a shared fate whose motto could easily be "All for one and one for all!" The strains of a Gold run (brought about by nothing more sinister than a continuation of the current physical demand) will either be withstood by the bullion banking system as a whole, or it will collapse them all. Like dominoes.

I think the healthiest way of looking at the 1999 "Washington Agreement" (Central Bank Agreement on Gold) is like this, but first you've got to accept the notion that "central bankers are indeed among the best and the brightest minds of the banking world." And if that is so hard for you to swallow, then I'll add this qualifier "-- insofar as the Big Picture is concerned."

The central bankers put their heads together and saw, coming down the pike -- sooner or later, the Mother of all Bank Runs -- in Gold! They knew that unless something changed, it would fall upon them to step into the breach as Lender of Last Resort. However, like Argentina, knowing that they couldn't print the necessary item, they would ultimately fail in the effort, and in the process would have succeeded only in squandering away much of the national Treasure, Gold.

The Washington Agreement is our national banking officials saying to the commercial bullion bankers, "In the interest of the financial system, we'll give a little to buy you guys out of your immediate jam, but we are also putting you on notice that this is where it ends. We have politically tied our hands in a very public way, and we won't be so easily handing over our remaining National Gold. Start concluding your operations in bullion, or face the next round of music alone, with no chairs left to sit on."

And in fact, we DO see a trend in year-over-year declines in LBMA volume, and a number of fledgling bullion operations shut down their trading desks in the wake of the warning shot served by the 1999 Central Bank Gold agreement.

I don't see how anyone could say that this is ultimately, somehow, interfering in the ongoing evolution toward a free market in Gold. (You see, we've never actually had one outside of antiquity, but by God we're getting closer!!!) Ever since Gold got dragged into the banking realm, there's been a non-stop series of legislation and regulation geared toward preventing the damage done to the System and its operators and users (that's you and me, pal) by the ever-present potential for a bank run on the Gold.

As a result, once we were well into use of the System, we (us and our political representatives) could never let the true value of Gold be exposed to the light of day. It has always been clouded over by the growing money supply made up of ledger entries that, to the layman, were "as good as Gold." Well of course they aren't. They are different. In some ways better, and in some ways worse. The modern drive toward economic efficiency being what it is -- an unstoppable commercial force within any market system -- it was inevitable that we would reach the point where we find ourselves largely today, and about to take the final conclusive step. That is, using the ledger system of notional bank money for those few uses that it does best, and using a real property system of Gold to fill the financial void where our needs for liquid Wealth Inviolate isn't met through notional money.

Surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, some child might already be heard saying, "But I WANNA use my Gold in the banking system! It's an infringement on my rights if I can't."

Look, Sonny, there need not be an artificial violation of rights, or strong-arm tactics, or whatever you want to call it for us to see the arrival one day of a Gold Market, resplendent in the utter absence of any involvement in illusory fractional banking usage. If a market gets nipped in the chin by a big dog (bullion banking), we can expect it to WILLINGLY exercise due caution in the future. Perhaps through avoidance? And if history shows that many nips haven't quite been enough incentive to keep us away from this dangerous plaything (or maybe we can only move away one step at a time), then we must at least admit that our style of interaction has in fact changed notably in many obvious ways. But to the extent that the old dog remains in striking distance, our decision not to play this way again may be made once and for all if we find to our horror one fine day that he's got our whole damned head in his maw. Once extricated, we will run fast and free, never to look back. And glad of it.

OK, enough of my banter. Here's the last bit from the article I'd like to call your attention to, in case you chose not to visit the link I've provided.


---START---
For the United States, the big question is whether foreigners will forever want to own vast numbers of dollars, both in the form of stocks, bonds, factories and real estate in the United States and the form of crumpled greenbacks in mattresses, fruit jars and black-market cash boxes everywhere else. One day, they may decide they own too many. Nobody knows how far the dollar would fall then.

"The day of reckoning is certainly coming," said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Associates LLC, a New York bond market research firm. "Like a lot of other people, I've been looking for it for quite some time."
----END----

A final note occus to me, in conclusion of my previous comments for anyone afraid of a Free Gold Market: I've yet to hear of a Rembrandt that's had its free market value stifled, somehow, because it wasn't being used as currency.

Gold. Do your part to free it from the banking system, tell a friend. And don't forget: Get you some. --- Aristotle
Golden Bear
(05/04/2002; 17:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 74910)
Excellent as always from Doug Noland
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=11330snippit:

In light of the abrupt change in dollar fortunes, the Treasury's monthly report of� "Foreign Purchases and Sales of U.S. Long-Term Securities" takes on considerable relevance. �February's report certainly makes for interesting reading.� While two months do not a trend make, February data confirms January's marked slowdown of foreign flows after the fourth-quarter's boom.� Net monthly inflows into U.S. securities averaged $53.6 billion during the fourth quarter and $42 billion for all of 2001.� For the first two months of 2002, net flows have ebbed markedly to $14.6 billion.� After being net monthly buyers of $12.7 billion Treasuries during the fourth quarter (avg. $1.5 billion buyers for 2001), foreigners have turned sellers to the tune of $8.5 billion.� During 2001, foreign-sourced purchases accounted for a monthly average of $13.8 billion of agency bonds and $19.7 billion of U.S. corporates.� So far for 2002, these average monthly inflows have dropped to $5.1 billion and $11.4 billion.� Foreigners purchased a net $2.4 billion of stocks each month last year, but have averaged only $638 million so far this year.
During the fourth quarter, the financial centers of the U.K, Japan, and the Cayman Islands combined to average $25.6 billion of monthly long-term U.S. security purchases (48% of total global purchases).� During the first two months of 2001, these flows have declined precipitously to average only $3.0 billion (21% of total).� After averaging $8.6 billion in monthly net purchases of agency bonds during the fourth quarter, January and February purchases have averaged just $270 million.� This is despite the Cayman Islands averaging about $130 billion, or 57%, of total average monthly agency trading volume.� Is there a relationship between the abrupt decline in flows from the three major financial centers and escalating corporate Credit problems?
----------------------------------------------------------
The foreigners don't like the stench of Corporate America...
Golden Bear
(05/04/2002; 17:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74911)
Just waiting for that gust of wind to blow down the American financial house of cards....
Link on previous postWhen discussing derivatives, Alan Greenspan often uses the terminology "the unbundling of risk."� Recently (April 22, 2002) he remarked, "New financial products have enabled risk to be dispersed more effectively to those willing, and presumably able, to bear it.� Shocks to the overall economic system are accordingly less likely to create cascading credit failure."� We take the exact opposite view: Derivatives and "financial engineering" generally isolate, extract, and specifically�"Bundle" risk (interest rate, Credit, currency, equity, gold, etc.).� And this is not some arcane intellectual debate, as it is our view that this "Bundling" has now set the stage for precisely the types of "cascading credit failure" and inevitable "shock to the overall economic system" that Greenspan apparently believes are "less likely."�� Despite assurances otherwise, there is no doubt that "unguarded" Credit excess has created unprecedented risk that is increasingly concentrated with the GSEs, Credit insurers, and within the murky realm of global derivative markets.� Furthermore, this "Bundling" reached new extremes last year, as financial intermediaries lent aggressively while issuing liabilities amounting to about $900 billion of new broad money supply.� There was also unprecedented growth in the Credit derivatives market.� We believe the Credit issue is now becoming critical, as recent developments have witnessed a dramatic escalation of the unfolding telecom and U.S. corporate bond market dislocation.� We see indications of a serious developing problem with the "Bundling" of Credit risk � a dislocation in the global Credit derivatives area.
slingshot
(05/04/2002; 18:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74912)
Flight to Quality
Put a Smile on your FaceJust came home from a cruise in the West Caribbean and made a stop at Conzumel. At this port of call the touristas were buying loose precious and semi precious stones, Gold and silver jewelry to the max. The stores along the waterfront were full. Five cruise ships pulled in at one time. For some there purchases would be duty free and no tax.Yes sir those GREENGO DOLLARS were moving fast. Silver one ounce rounds were going for $25.00 US. So the US Silver Eagle is a real bargain.
The touristas are getting close. All they need to do is switch to bullion AND AWAY WE GO!
So what else could be better? Went to Mel Fishers museum
to see the Riches Of The Atocha. There I was able to hold a 74 oz. bar of Gold form the treasure. Now I'm telling you if that does not make you a Goldbug, you don't have a pulse.
Yepper,everyone wanted to put there grubby little hands on that bar. Just made me smile. Too bad they did not realize that they could have their own gold in hand.

So be positive. Time is on my side. Yes it is. Love them Rolling Stones.

Slingshot--------------------<>
Black Blade
(05/04/2002; 19:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74913)
Buffett Tells Fans About Investing, Fraud
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020504/financial_berkshire_1.html
Snippit:

OMAHA, Neb. (Reuters) - Omaha's Civic Auditorium was packed to the rafters on Saturday to hear Warren Buffett and his business partner Charlie Munger describe their unique approach to long-term investing and slam fraudulent practices hurting U.S. companies. "Many of the crooks look like crooks," said Buffett. "They have a smell about them." "Wall Street loves them as long as they are pushing out securities," he added.

Turning to the troubled area of corporate accounting, Buffett predicted that derivatives -- a major business for failed Enron Corp. -- would trip up other firms in the future. "There's no place with as much potential for phony numbers as derivatives," said Buffett. Munger went further: "To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage."

Black Blade: I guess he won't be investing in JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, or most any other investment bank anytime soon.


Black Blade
(05/04/2002; 19:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74914)
'Locust Cycle' May Bug Street for Years
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020504/column_stocks_week_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The stock market may be in the early stages of the "Locust Cycle," a plague that brings investors years of unappealing returns before the good times start to roll again. If this is the market's destiny, then people should abandon their deeply ingrained belief that stocks always bounce back. In other words, the "buy on dip" mentality may not be the smartest strategy.

Indeed, one of the biggest fictions on Wall Street is the market always comes back. It's a mindset formed during the 1990s when stocks were the great wealth spinners. "That's what happens during bull markets -- the market always rebounds, that is, until it ends," says Ray DeVoe, veteran Wall Streeter and publisher of the DeVoe Report. "This is most investors' only experience in the stock market during the 18 years of rising prices."

He believes that investors, itching for a return of the bull market that hung on from 1982 to 2000, may instead be faced with a profit drought that could last for years. It's called the "Locust Cycle," in which the crop-ravaging insect lies dormant for 17 years and then awakens for 17 years of activity. "People do not realize that there can be long periods when the market goes nowhere or acts poorly," DeVoe says.

It happened after the crash of 1929 and again at the conclusion of the "Nifty 50" market in the 1970s. After the 1929 bloodbath, the Dow Jones industrial average went into a head-spinning plunge of 82 percent by the summer of 1932. Then, it took the Dow 25 years to return to its pre-crash high, says DeVoe, who was born the year after the 1929 debacle.

Black Blade: Locust Cycle? A Grasshopper of a different stripe. The markets have had their run, and now that the American consumer has come face to face with reality after years of complacency, environmental brain washing and in general a life in "Fairy Land". They are about to wake up to the realization that goods just don't magically appear at the supermarkets, gasoline from gas pumps, and electricity from the socket in the wall. Now that those costs are rising, they will be less likely to put cash intro the stock markets. The smart ones will be paying off debt and preparing for rough times.



Black Blade
(05/04/2002; 19:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74915)
Dollar Has Biggest Drop Since January on U.S. Jobs Report
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNLFdxOrRG9sbGFy
Snippit:

New York, May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had its biggest drop against the euro since January after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate reached a 7 1/2-year high in April, fueling concern an economic rebound may be slower than projected. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped to a six-month low this week on skepticism about the strength of the U.S. expansion, which also reduced demand for dollars needed to buy shares.

Black Blade: Let's see, first the financial media Trolls brush off the rising unemployment rate as a backward looking indicator, and now they are concerned that it is leading to a drop in the US Dollar? I got news for the Trolls; the unemployment picture is going to get much worse. Especially so as the costs of energy rise in the face of declining petroleum production and the loss of consumer confidence as stocks decline to match historical values (not to mention the lack of growing corporate profits).

USAGOLD
(05/04/2002; 19:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74916)
Black Blade and ALL. . ..
This is an incredible statement from one of America's top money men and one who has made his money in the securities' business:

Munger went further: "To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage."
____________________
Black Blade
(05/04/2002; 19:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74917)
O'Neill Protests, Markets Scent Shift
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020504/economy_oneill_1.html
Snippit:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill told Congress on Wednesday he did not want to signal a change in currency policy. But that is exactly what markets saw -- a shift away from the long-standing "strong dollar" policy. With the dollar already under pressure, the shift may be a timely one. It would allow policymakers to gradually weaken the currency to address growing concerns about how to finance both the huge U.S. current account deficit and the newly returned U.S. budget deficit. The United States has run a trade imbalance for years, but signs global demand for U.S. assets, needed to fund the trade gap, is waning has heightened concerns about deficits.


Black Blade: The weaker US Dollar is a given. The USD must be weakened in face of record trade deficits over the last several months with no end in sight. The upside is that the US Dollar denominated POG should strengthen further.

Waverider
(05/04/2002; 22:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74918)
Argentina Seeks Loan to Avert Default on World Bank
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APNLpHRUvQXJnZW50&ao=4141079Snippit:
"Argentina asked foreign governments and lending agencies for a 30-day loan to avoid defaulting on $800 million due to the World Bank mid-month, Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna said.

A loan would keep a Latin American country from joining Afghanistan, Sudan, Liberia, Somalia, and Zimbabwe as countries that have fallen into arrears with the World Bank and IMF. Negotiating 30-day credit will be difficult because Argentina's tax revenue has plunged, the country remains in default with bondholders, and banks are seeking government assistance to overcome insolvency caused by January's devaluation, analysts said."

Waverider: More tears for Argentina as it appears there are no immediate solutions to their economic dilemma.

~Black Blade - you recommended a few books a while ago but didn't give the authors. The titles are "Green Monday" and "Hubbert's Peak". Actually I found "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage" by KS Deffeyes - is that the one? Do you have the author for "Green Monday"? TIA!

~Slingshot - Sounds as though you had a great vacation. Your observation of others reactions to the Gold bar is interesting - Gold seems to captivate those who lay eyes on it. I've been thinking that it may be easier to engage people in discussion about Gold by having it readily visible, so I'm having a Maple Leaf coin made into a pendant. As Aristotle said - "do your part to free it from the banking system - tell a friend". Well, I try to talk to friends and colleagues about Gold and it usually goes right over their heads...not even a passing interest regardless of the approach I take. I've never been one for jewellery but maybe a Gold coin will catch attention and open the door to discussion. We'll see... Cheers!
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 00:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74919)
Re: Waverider � Books

The following books are listed along with author and a short description by reviewers and myself:

1. "The Prize: The Epic Quest For Oil, Money, and Power" By Daniel Yergin, 1993. The book furthers ones understanding of the United States' place in this history which, in turn, helps us to understand why oil is a vital national interest to the most powerful nation on earth. With this in mind, the book helps one to understand not only the influence people like the Samuel brothers, the Rothschilds, and the Rockefellers had on the development and growth of the industry, but most importantly how and why this industry has such influence on the direction of U.S. foreign policy.

2. "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending Oil Shortage" By Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2001. This book has been on the top 10 list and is one of the books recently seen carried by George Dubya. Kenneth S. Deffeyes was a prot�g� of M.King Hubbert at Shell and is currently a professor of Geology at Princeton University. He delivers a sobering message: the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil "will fall, never to rise again." If Deffeyes is right--and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives. It is no wonder then that Oil Men like George "Dubya" Bush and Dick Cheney have read this book.

3. "Geodestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources Over Nations And Individuals" By Walter Lewellyn Youngquist, 1997. GeoDestinies helps to identify the forces that will determine our future. Some of these include the exponential population explosion, the ever-increasing demand and use of fossil fuels and other non-renewable resources, the degradation of our soils and groundwater, the truths and misinformation concerning alternative energy sources, and the relationships between natural resources and politics, economics, and our culture as a whole.

4. "The Coming Oil Crisis" By Colin J.Campbell, 1997. During 1997, an academic debate of immense significance for the future of civilization began to surface in a remarkably diverse array of media. The debate concerns the question, is there enough crude oil left in the world to get us to 2010 without a historically unprecedented discontinuity. The whole character of society in the 20th Century, and of its history, economics and politics is more a product of oil than of any other factor. The crucial question which Campbell addresses in his book is how much oil remains to be found and for how long global oil resources can continue to support the expected growth in demand. Having access to Petroconsultants' extensive database, he has carried out a detailed and comprehensive analysis of historical production data and of the Earth's ultimate oil potential. His estimate of the ultimate oil reserves is 1800 billion barrels of which 1600 billion barrels have been discovered, and he predicts that there are only a further 200 billion barrels yet to be found. His most crucial pronouncement however, is that once the global mid-point of depletion has been reached, production rate will decline.

5. "Green Monday" (out of print � Financial Thriller) By Michael Thomas, 1981. Financial Thriller � I believe about Gold, Oil and the Middle East � I haven't read it. Though I remember that Randy (our Admin guy) mentioned it once in passing. It sounds interesting enough that I just ordered a used copy tonight from an online book retailer.

6. "The Skeptical Enivornmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World" By Bjorn Lomborg (Academic and former Greenpeace activist), 2001. Lomborg than correctly pointed out that incentive structure for the career environmental scientist/activist tilt them to communicate bad, or even alarmist, scenarios. Basically, it is money (donations and government grants) and livelihood (career and fame.) Similarly, the media is incented to communicate "news" that attracts a large viewership - the only real news is bad news. He merely points out that if we use scientific methods (rather than faith) and make claims responsibly (rather than based on self-interest), the populace will have a better understanding of the true state of the environment, and resources can be directed to the areas that are truly a source of concern. But of course that might well mean that less governmental money, and less environmental research jobs. Lomborg did not make many friends of the environmental stripe by publishing this book

7. "The ABCs of Gold Investing : Protecting Your Wealth Through Private Gold Ownership" By Michael J. Kosares, John Ritland (Illustrator), Rod Colvin (Editor), 1997. Of course our Host's book is listed as a recommended listing along with the previous literature. Now for the first time under one cover, novice investors will find thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership. In The ABCs Of Gold Investing, gold investment expert Michael J. Kosares (with 25 years experience in the field) emphasizes the asset preservation qualities of gold at a time when investor uncertainty about the economy has led many to seek asset diversification. The ABCs Of Gold Investing covers a range of topics, from understanding gold's role in combatting inflation and deflation to how to select a gold firm. Kosares also examines reasons why gold has become an essential in many American portfolio and why that trend is likely to continue. � Midwest Book Review. Heck, if you ask I am sure he will even sign the book for you. (You can even buy thye book here online from the Castle, as well as "In the Footsteps of Giants" - introduced to me by a friend).

8. "The Power of Gold : The History of an Obsession" By Peter L. Bernstein, 2001. Though I don't necessarily agree with all of Peter's conclusions, he does put together an interesting (and gory) picture of the history of the "barbarous relic". Peter Bernstein quotes the immortal words of King Ferdinand of Spain, who once declared: "Get gold, humanely if possible, but at all hazards--get gold." As ensuing chapters reveal, man's obsession with finding, keeping, selling, and evaluating gold has rarely been a humane adventure and has always been a hazardous one. If anything, the book does describe events through history concerning Gold that we know have influenced the course of history for over 6,000 years. Although he doesn't cover it, the earliest evidence of Gold influence in World culture is perhaps as early as 4,000 B.C. as evidenced by unearthed Thracian treasures. Other than the historical view presented I think that he tends to miss the point of Gold ownership in today's world and the necessity of having Gold as part of a diversification strategy. For that I would recomment MK's book.

Aside from "Green Monday", which I haven't read yet, I would recommend the other books as a good start to understanding the approaching financial crises as our critical economically extractable resources become depleted and how to prepare for the ensuing financial meltdown. Actually, I have yet to read the entire "Hubbert's Peak" and "The Skeptical Environmentalist". Anyway, so much good literature and so little time, but that is what life is � a lifetime of learning and accumulated knowledge. Cheers and happy reading!

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham
(05/05/2002; 01:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74920)
Golden Bear -- House of cards
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=11330I was going to select that same Noland passage:

"Greenspan: "New financial products have enabled risk to be dispersed more effectively to those willing, and presumably able, to bear it. Shocks to the overall economic system are accordingly less likely to create cascading credit failure."

Noland:" We take the exact opposite view: Derivatives and "financial engineering" generally isolate, extract, and specifically "Bundle" risk (interest rate, Credit, currency, equity, gold, etc.). And this is not some arcane intellectual debate, as it is our view that this "Bundling" has now set the stage for precisely the types of "cascading credit failure" and inevitable "shock to the overall economic system" that Greenspan apparently believes are "less likely."

G: Reading the two opposing views of derivative risk just now over at Noland's site put me back to a few hours ago when my daughter was reciting to me in full detail the story of The Emperor's New Clothes, which she has just learned to read.

Greenspan and his "wise" advisors are obviously the smartest people in the land and certainly could not be found to be walking through the city buck nekkid now, could they?

I actually had some thoughts yesterday for a "bell curve" of mathematical precision in finance, which I get every time I read the list of "Greeks" in options, and when I hear about delta hedging. The pioneers in financial mathematics (and computer modeling) got an edge over some others in the trade, but it has led to a computerized "arms race" in competitive modeling, till no one has any useful edge now, compared with the systemic risk overall.

These people are so enamored of their precise formulae, they can't get over it, and they can't admit that all their competitors are using the same formulae. The edge now cannot be in getting a slightly finer-tuned formula to beat them by a tiny margin; the edge must be to get the hell out of the game before it implodes. What! -- and give up my paychecks and commission bonuses!

I still imagine that Greenspan's disaster recovery scenario is to triage the strongest of the "wounded" firms with Fed cash, close the worst ones by merging into selected survivors, which will take "haircuts" on their portfolios and hope to continue. The public will be measured for its remaining confidence in The System, and an appropriate image of the financial industry will be supplied to meet that remaining credulity. "Bad" banks etc will be exposed in the media and despatched publicly, and good ones will be lauded for "stepping in to save the public's hard-earned savings". 'Twill be a PR campaign they'll view with awe ages hence!

The Federal Reserve and FDIC created a fiat money system in which all banks could partake as franchises ("McFed"?) staying within certain industry-supplied rules, and competing only in approved ways. That system will morph itself as necessary and possible to conform to a new financial landscape, presenting whatever faces and names it believes will bring in the greatest overall cash depository result.

That Antal Fekete essay recently about the Fed deepening the 30's Depression by liquefying the banking system through T-bonds while starving the manufacturing sector, comes to mind as an example of the sway of the financial sector over all others, at whatever cost in human suffering.

Banking and its machinations have been such a big part of our U.S. history in EACH century; it is really hard for me to hear paeans about this "wonderful country of ours" (I know which parts of it _I_ think are wonderful) without thinking of the blindness of its inhabitants to the financial control mechanisms ruling their lives.

Blind patriotism seems to me almost a pugnacious, pathetic denialism by those who are trying to fight their way out of the paper bag of their own forgiveable ignorance, constructed out of media propaganda, economic mis-education, and mathematical innumeracy. A product attacking its fellow products.

Revolution against such a system will require one part learning mathematics, two parts education in economic fundamentals (such as Austrian), and two parts sheer orneriness at being lied to one's entire lifetime.
Gold Standard
(05/05/2002; 03:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74921)
Just for a laugh!
http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm
Have any of you Lords and Ladies of the Realm of Gold stumbled across the above site?

It is full-on propaganda from the Cabal to you:

Snip>
The threat of a financial crisis does not yet seem close enough to warrant a run out of the U.S. Dollar, particularly since the present U.S. administration seems to favor a strong dollar.

There has been a lot of talk about some mining companies planning not to hedge as much as they have in the past. We are surprised at how many people take this talk seriously, which we regard as somewhere between foolish and ridiculous. The futures market exists for the benefit of miners to take advantage of high prices when they occur in the futures market. A miner can lock in a good profit in the futures market when prices are right.

If a mining company passes up the opportunity to lock up a good profit, he will then be speculating instead. Sometimes he will be right and other times he will be wrong. The subject of hedging has been discussed for centuries and there are many different attitudes toward it. However, most businessmen agree that if you can lock up a profit rather than speculate, you should do so.

Those miners who decide to speculate rather than hedge at a profit put their companies at risk if the price goes the wrong way. For an ongoing business not to hedge in a good profit, would be considered irresponsible or just plain greedy by some. Solid, long lasting companies are usually not based on speculation.

So far, in spite of reports of hedging cutbacks, we are unable to see the affect of any cutbacks as the industry remains hedged at high levels.


Well worth a look and a laugh, especially when cracking the champagne after Monday's trade.

Cheers and Golden dreams, all!
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 04:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 74922)
Gold Standard
http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm
So....that's where S J Kaplan went (snicker). I guess he will be just as successful there as on his old site. How pathetic. Relying solely on COT as an indicator for POG direction. How bizarre. let's see here, didn't SJ Kaplan go "significantly Bearish" just as when the current Gold rally began and then go long the QQQ? Hmmm...

Just because these guys are losing their shirts they decide that they must trash anything that is moving higher - particularly Gold. They are in for a very big surprise (so far they have been creamed).

- Black Blade
Boilermaker
(05/05/2002; 05:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74923)
Business Week Cover Story
MAY 13, 2002

COVER STORY

How Corrupt Is Wall Street?

New revelations have investors baying for blood, and the scandal is widening

When Debases Kanjilal, a Queens (N.Y.) pediatrician, picked up his phone in early 2001 to call lawyer Jacob H. Zamansky, he had no idea he would whip up a full-fledged hurricane on Wall Street. Kanjilal claimed he lost $500,000 investing in Infospace Inc. (INSP ), an Internet stock he says his Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER ) broker urged him not to sell when it was trading at $60 a share. By the time he sold, it was down to $11. Zamansky filed a novel arbitration claim against Merrill in March, 2001, in which he argued that its star Net analyst, Henry Blodget, had misled investors by fraudulently promoting the stocks of companies with which the firm had investment banking relationships. That lawsuit led directly to an investigation by New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who stunned Merrill and its Wall Street brethren three weeks ago when he made public some shocking e-mail exchanges between Merrill analysts and bankers.

That was just the start. Now, Spitzer is investigating Salomon Smith Barney, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD ), and at least three others. The Securities & Exchange Commission has launched a probe into practices at 10 firms, while the Justice Dept. is pondering an inquiry of its own. And plaintiffs' lawyers are advertising for clients and filing new suits daily.

The widening scandal has plunged Wall Street into crisis. The resulting furor is more thunderous than the one unleashed by Michael R. Milken's junk-bond schemes in the 1980s, the Prudential Securities limited-partnership debacle in the early '90s, or price-fixing on the Nasdaq later in the decade. In part, that's because many more individuals lost money in the recent market collapse than on earlier scandals.

But uproar over the relationships between analysts and their investment banking colleagues has also grown because it comes on the heels of several other scandals that raise big questions about how Wall Street operates. Already, probes are under way into Wall Street's shady initial public offering allocation practices, as well as its crucial role in setting up and selling the partnerships that led to Enron Corp.'s collapse. Worse, execs at many firms may have made a bundle investing in the partnerships, even as those same firms advised clients to hold Enron stock virtually until it went bankrupt. It all makes Wall Street seem rigged for the benefit of insiders as never before.

The damage goes way beyond the tattered reputations of the firms and their beleaguered analysts. The entire economy depends on the financial system to raise and allocate capital. And that financial system, in turn, is built on the integrity of its information. Should investors lose confidence in that information, it could deepen and prolong the bear market, as wary investors hesitate to put money into stocks. And it could easily put a damper on the economy if companies are less willing--or less able--to raise capital on Wall Street. "One of the precious things we have is the integrity of the financial markets. If that changes it could have dramatic repercussions on the dollar, on domestic inflation, on the economy," says Felix G. Rohatyn, former managing director of Lazard Freres & Co.

Wall Street has always struggled with conflicts of interest. Indeed, an investment bank is a business built on them. The same institution serves two masters: the companies for which it sells stock, issues bonds, or executes mergers; and the investors whom it advises. While companies want high prices for their newly issued stocks and low interest rates on their bonds, investors want low prices and high rates. In between, the bank gets fees from both and trades stocks and bonds on its own behalf as well, potentially putting its own interests at odds with those of all its customers.

But in recent years, those inherent conflicts have grown worse, as the sums to be made by overlooking them have grown enormous. That's because since the repeal of Depression-era banking laws, megabanks such as Citigroup (C ) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM ) are allowed to do everything from trading stocks to lending money and managing pension funds.

Chinese walls--jargon for the strict separation of the different lines of business conducted under the same roof--were supposed to keep the bankers honest and free from corruption. But a series of scandals since the early 1980s has eaten away at those foundations. The final blow, however, was the tide of money that flooded over Wall Street during the great tech bubble. Between the last quarter of 1998 and the first quarter of 2000, the tech-heavy Nasdaq market index soared from 1,500 to more than 5,000. Many investors made out like bandits. So did the investment banks. During the same period, according to Thomson Financial/First Call, Wall Street earned $10 billion in fees by raising nearly $245 billion for 1,300 companies, many of them profitless tech outfits that later blew up. The bubble burst in the spring of 2000, wiping out more than $4 trillion in investor wealth. "The fact is that a bubble market allowed the creation of bubble companies, entities designed more with an eye to making money off investors rather than for them," wrote famed investor Warren E. Buffett in his annual report to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A ) shareholders last year.

Staking their claim in the gold rush, Wall Street firms ramped up in the late '90s, hiring hordes of analysts, many of them inexperienced. New investment bankers were hired as well. A feeding frenzy set in as rivals fought to grab a big share of the market to bring companies public. At the same time, a new cult of equities came to life, as individuals invested in stocks as never before. True, many investors ignored common sense. Still, as analysts applauded stocks, trumpeting their picks on CNBC and other media, investors bought. "Investors took everything at face value, which was understandable. There wasn't a lot of information, and it was of varying quality," says Michael E. Kenneally, co-chairman and chief investment officer at Bank of America Capital Management Inc.

Only now are the ugly details of the conflicts at play being laid bare. In some of the e-mail turned up by Spitzer, analysts disparage stocks as "crap" and "junk" that they were pushing at the time. The e-mails are so incendiary that they threaten to thrust Wall Street into the sort of public-relations nightmare that Philip Morris (MO ), Ford (F ), Firestone, and Arthur Andersen have endured in recent years. All the ingredients are present: publicity-hungry attorneys general, packs of plaintiffs' lawyers, and potential congressional hearings. "The last thing the industry wants is...the drip-drip-drip of new stories every week," says Howard Schiffman, a former SEC Enforcement Div. lawyer now practicing privately in Washington.

More explosive documents may be on the way. Both Spitzer and the SEC are seeking from more than a dozen firms papers and e-mail related to analysts' recommendations and their potential conflicts of interest. While nobody knows what evidence will emerge, other firms will have their own smoking guns. And analyst pay is likely to emerge as a hot-button issue. Zamansky, for instance, claims that he has seen contracts from investment banks promising analysts 3% to 7% of all the investment banking revenues that they help to generate.

That would be clear proof that analysts were being paid to help the firms' banking clients, often at the expense of investors who expected objective advice.

The financial implications of this mess are enormous. Based on the evidence that has already emerged, Merrill is facing potential fraud claims by every retail investor who purchased any stock that Blodget & Co. may have insincerely recommended. If analysts covering other industries at the firm harbored similar doubts about the companies they hawked, the number of claimants will expand exponentially. Should other financial firms have similarly embarrassing documents in their files, Wall Street could easily be facing billions in potential liability. In a report released on Apr. 24, as the fiasco was unfolding, Prudential Financial analyst David Trone estimated the issue could cost Merrill alone $2 billion.

Heads could roll, too. If prosecutors conclude that firms are guilty of systemic fraud--rather than harboring a small group of rogues--research directors and other high-ranking execs could be vulnerable. That's why the way analysts were paid is such an explosive issue. In egregious cases, criminal prosecutions are possible. Although regulators have never thrown an analyst in jail for fraudulently recommending a stock, experts say that could happen if public outrage flames high enough. Spitzer, whose tough New York securities statutes give him unusually broad power to file criminal suits, says he won't stop short of structural reform. "I'm continuing to negotiate [with Merrill]," he told BusinessWeek on May 1. "They've been fruitful discussions, but negotiations can break down over a range of things. At this moment, we have significant issues that have not been resolved."

Over the long run, a risk bigger than legal penalties could be new restrictions that Spitzer or others place on the way investment banks do business. On May 8, the SEC is scheduled to approve new rules forcing analysts to limit and disclose contacts with investment banker colleagues. But there's good reason to question whether these steps will be enough to satisfy the industry's critics--some of whom seek a separation between investment banking and analysis. At the moment, such radical change is a long shot. But if the Democrat-controlled Senate latches on to the analyst issue, it could trigger embarrassing hearings or proposals for more stringent rules. "Other shoes will drop," says one securities-industry lobbyist. "If [Salomon's Jack] Grubman or [Morgan Stanley's] Mary Meeker turns up [in similar evidence], the sky is the limit" for this issue. "It has big legs."

It was never much of a secret that analysts who work at investment banks often work against investors. Sell ratings now make up less than 2% of analysts' recommendations, up from around 1% during the bull market, according to First Call. Analysts are under pressure from the companies they cover, as well as from big institutional clients who may own the stock, to give positive ratings. Michael Mayo, senior bank analyst at Prudential Financial, recently told the Senate Banking Committee that he had been exhorted to stay bullish throughout his career, from both his former employers and the companies he covers. Otherwise, he said, he doesn't get the same access that others do, which gives him a harder time making nuanced stock calls. "It's like playing basketball with one hand tied behind your back," says Mayo. Analysts also need to shine in surveys such as Institutional Investor's annual rankings, in which money managers vote for their favorite stockpickers, so they spend too much time lobbying clients rather than crunching numbers. "Analysts get focused on saying what they think the client wants to hear to win the vote," says Henry J. Herrmann, chief investment officer at Waddell & Reed Inc., a money manager.

The biggest factor now contaminating the system is compensation. To an ever-increasing degree, analysts' pay is tied to how much investment banking business they bring in. According to a Merrill memo released by Spitzer, Blodget detailed how he and his team had been involved in 52 investment banking transactions from December, 1999, to November, 2000, earning $115 million for the firm. Shortly thereafter, Blodget's pay package shot up from $3 million to $12 million. Charles L. Hill, First Call's director of research, says that when he was a retail analyst 20 years ago, if he helped investment bankers with a new client, he would get a small reward at year's end: "But it was the frosting on the cake. Now, it is the cake."

It would be an exaggeration to say analysts alone are to blame for Wall Street's woes. There's a much deeper problem involving everyone from credulous investors to deal-happy investment bankers and execs looking to fatten their wallets. "It's finally dawning on people that this incentive system we've given managers based on the value of stock options has encouraged management to puff up their companies a lot," says Robert J. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and author of the 2000 best-seller Irrational Exuberance.

Even so, experts say a lot of the corruption oozing from Wall Street has to do with an erosion in investment banking ethics and practices. It goes clear back to 1975, when fixed trading commissions were ended. Until then, investment banks had been able to make big bucks off pricey trading commissions. Slashed commissions meant the firms were forced to derive more revenues from investment banking business. "There's a real sense of sadness over what has happened in investment banking. It's not about what's right for a client, it's all about jamming a deal down a client's throat," says an ex-analyst who recently joined a hedge fund.

Consider Enron, which has paid $323 million to Wall Street in underwriting fees since 1986, according to Thomson. Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS ) pocketed $69 million of that, while Salomon made off with $61 million, and Credit Suisse First Boston took $64 million. Indeed, two of CSFB's investment bankers, after helping to design Enron's off-the-books partnerships, sat on one of the partnerships' boards. According to a complaint filed in Houston Federal Court on Apr. 8, investment bankers generated megaprofits from secretly investing in Enron's hidden partnerships. Meanwhile, many analysts continued recommending the stock to the bitter end: 11 out of 16 analysts who follow Enron had buys or strong buys less than a month before the company's bankruptcy filing.

Enron may be an extreme example. Still, in the past, tradition and ethics played a large role in keeping investment bankers loyal to their corporate clients. Indeed, Wall Street itself used to have much more of an interest in guarding its reputation. Says Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida: "These days, bankers are far more focused on short-term profits than on their long-term reputations."

That's likely to get worse as investment banking business continues to dry up. The amount being raised in initial public offerings is way off its 2000 highs. Now there are far fewer mergers and follow-on offerings taking place. Because of this, it's unlikely that Wall Street, after all its hiring during the tech bubble, can sustain its profitability. Goldman Sachs estimates that five of the top investment banks on Wall Street will have to get by on $2 billion less than the $16 billion in net revenues they racked up in 1999. If investment banks roll back to 1999 staffing levels, Putnam Lovell Securities estimates that banks will have to shrink their payrolls by 5%--putting over 13,000 out of work.

But no matter how much Wall Street shrinks, its credibility must grow again. Firms have already taken some steps, such as eliminating direct reporting by analysts to investment bankers. But the Street and the SEC still must hammer out a solid, enforceable code of conduct. And if strong reforms in how analysts are compensated aren't pursued, focusing on increased disclosure will do little to end the abuses. Beyond that, regulators may need to go after the firms' top brass--the folks who set the procedural as well as ethical tone. And the Street should take great pains to monitor itself in an effort to restore investors' confidence. "If Wall Street knows what is good for it and what is good for this country, it will very definitely clean up its act," says Rohatyn. Adds George H. Boyd III, head of equities at New York's Weiss, Peck & Greer: "This is an industry of trust; it's one of its key assets. If [Wall Street] loses it, it is going to have to invest in getting [that trust] back and putting in the controls to rebuild it. Without that trust, there's nothing."

Merrill Lynch apparently knows this. At its annual shareholder meeting on Apr. 26, Chairman and CEO David H. Komansky took an unprecedented stand on the analyst debacle, saying: "We have failed to live up to the high standards that are our tradition, and I want to take this opportunity to publicly apologize to our clients, our shareholders, and our employees." Other apologies may follow, as firms desperately try to assuage potentially litigious investors and unyielding regulators. But for Wall Street, just saying sorry at this stage may prove to be too little, too late.


By Marcia Vickers and Mike France, with Emily Thornton, David Henry, and Heather Timmons in New York and Mike McNamee in Washington

Boilermaker comment: Corruption borne of greed will do more to damage the US than any foreign enemy or terrorist campaign could have ever hoped to accomplish. Government regulators and institutions, ie., SEC, Treasury Dept. and the Federal Reserve, have aided and abetted the process.

At least the "Mainstream Media" is finally taking the blinders off. That's a first step in correcting a problem that will cause many years of pain.
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 06:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74924)
Mr Gresham (msg#: 74920)
your excellent conclusion to a very probable playout of the future:

"Revolution against such a system will require one part learning mathematics, two parts education in economic fundamentals (such as Austrian), and two parts sheer orneriness at being lied to one's entire lifetime."

Include here the dissemination of profound words by those who have positions of authority and favour justice and liberty for all - eg Ron Paul and Reg Howe et al.

My only concern is that a large proportion of the population do not want to take that level of responsibility for their own lives and want to be nurtured by Big Brother - oops I mean the government. Look at Argentina - the masses refused too educate themselves after all the turmoil they had suffered in the past, and still were on the receiving end of this current default and devalution of their currency - and want the government to fix it so that it's the way it was before and they can then go on their merry way in fantasy land.

Through all this chaos, I have not heard one story of Argentinians accumulating gold bullion, instead they are substituting one form of confetti with another thinking they will be safe next time. Old habits die hard, just like their owners...
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 06:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74925)
Golden Bear - Argentina

The Argentine economy and banking system collapsed so fast that most Argentines were caught flat-footed. There simply was no time to exchange "confetti" for precious metal. Of course there were some who were buying Gold jewelry with fast depreciating pesos in a last ditch effort to get something of value. Also, if you were a bullion dealer and you saw the excessive rampant inflation would you exchange your value-gaining bullion for fast depreciating "confetti" or high-tail it with your bullion? I know what I would do. The time for buying Gold and Silver is past. The Ants survive while the Grasshoppers starve.

The economic disaster is starting to have effects in Brazil, Uruguay, and now Chile from what I hear. I also heard that large numbers of professionals are applying for visas to leave Argentina. Also, Argentine farmers are only selling produce for export. It looks to get more "grim" as this situation progresses.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 06:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74926)
Black Blade (msg#: 74925) Argentina
Greetings Sir,

I totally agree, however, did not Argentinians suffer rapid inflation due to a devaluing currency a decade ago? A wake up call that was not heeded.

It was too late when the SHTF, but they had a decade to get smarter....

Regards,

GB.
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 06:40:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74927)
Golden Bear

Indeed, however, even with second chances most people never learn (sigh). It's human nature to only think positive. Unfortunately the "Grasshopper" mentality is prevalent in all societies. When things go bad - they can go bad very fast when people least expect.

In the US we had the energy crisis last year, and yet no one has learned. In California they have shelved plans for extensive transmission grid upgrades and power plant contruction. We are headed into another energy crisis because of false hopes that there is excess supply (which is a mirage due to new storage, higher demand, less drilling, etc.).

When the inevitable happens in the west as the economic recession deepens, we may find ourselves just like the Argentines. The country sold off their official gold. The people were not able to withdraw depreciating pesos and they rioted for food. Some lucky few here at the forum were able to accumulate some Gold Argentine pesos.

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. I had been saying this long before the Argentine mess, and how well off they would have been if they were following such advice. Hopefully we here will not experience such things, however, we did in the 1930's (The Great Depression).

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Max Rabbitz
(05/05/2002; 07:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74928)
A wee bit from Scotland this Sunday Morning
http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=481962002From YOUR MONEY: Weak equity market sees investors making a new gold rush by Ian Williams.

"China's central bank is the most interesting example. China has exchange reserves of $700bn, of which about 2% is in gold. Last year, the Chinese declared their intention to increase this to between 10% and 15% of total reserves but were "persuaded" by the Americans to keep their reserves in dollars and treasury bills in return for American support for China's application to join the World Trade Organisation. Now that China is a member, it can change its reserve mix to whatever it wants."

Max: I figure 10% of $700bn is equal to 7056 tons of gold at $310 per ounce. How long will they wait?
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 07:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74929)
Black Blade (msg#: 74927)
I have been contemplating your regular final words for quite a time, and am now beginning to research the process of food storage, as I see things deteriorating steadily just like yourself...

Thanks again for being persistent with this message as it helps keep it at the forefront of our minds so that we do not lapse into forgetfullness and distraction.

On that note, I bid you goodnight from the land of Oz.
Econoclast
(05/05/2002; 07:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74930)
Max--I think they'll be waiting a loooong time...
If they want physical gold, it is not to be found in anything remotely approaching thousands of tonnes at these prices. There is already a supply/demand deficit when only a few hundred tonnes per year are being accumulated for investment. They will only be able to get that gold through DRASTICALLY higher prices, war(s), or a radical realignment deal in the CB world (with US gold obviously playing a major part).
The British auctions, which were heralded as being sooo important were only 25 tonnes each, and there was twice as many buyers as could be filled! The Chinese want 7000 tonnes--Good luck!
I imagine they do have a lot of dollars though.....
Rock
(05/05/2002; 08:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74931)
Golden Bear
Taking Black Blades Advise on Food StorageStarting a food storage program makes practical sense. I remember when hurricane Andrew hit South Florida as I have family that lived through it to tell the story. They were left without food staples and fresh water for well over a week depending on where you were located. I also remember seeing TV footage of those long food lines during the great depressoin of 1929.

Why is it that we don't learn from history? So many of us have never been without in fact we have only experienced the abundance of the good times yet we look around us and see all the uncertainity in the world yet we still don't take heed.

I started my food storage porgram at the onset of Y2K and believe me when I tell you I was called every name in the book when I tried to direct others to buy gold and start a food storage program.

I have never been influenced by the majority because in my brief existence on this great planet I have learned that the majority is usually wrong.

One good place to consider for some ideas concerning an emergency food program is places like Eastern Mountain Sports. They have a large line of dehydraded foods in vacumed packs which have a shelf life of 5 to 10 years. All you need is water and presto, your eating lazayna, or beef stew or a variety of different food choices.

Pick up a small fuel stove that can be hooked up to either propane, white gas or kerosene. Think about this for a minute, we pay large insurance premiums on our vehicles and rarely see any of that money come back to us in tangable form yet when you pay for your food storage program you have the same security that you have when you pay your insurance premiums but at least you have something tangable to account for your money, its the same principle as owning gold in some ways.

And needless to say the peace of mind you have for doing it.
Always remember the 4 G's : God, Grub, Gold, Guns.
Have a great day.

Rock



Max Rabbitz
(05/05/2002; 09:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74932)
Econoclast, Your are absolutely right.
The Chinese will have a hard time getting that gold. However, in the meanwhile they may have something even more valuable.

They must be aware of their ability to blackmail the dollar system with threats of massive gold purchases. I wonder what benefits, in addition to gaining World Trade Organization membership, they have been able to extract. Remember the stories of Chinese obtaining U.S. nuclear and missile designs during the Clinton years, and delays and interference by that administration in the investigations. I remember one undercover investigation was leaked to the NY Times prematurely, as FBI director Louis Freeh refused to ask for a delay in publishing. Also, there were stories of classified documents at Los Alamos given to visiting Chinese scientists by the Secretary of Energy Hazel O'leary. Then there were technology export regulations that were removed from State Department overview to that of the Commerce Department, with an apparent Chinese agent given a top spot in that department.

Is Taiwan the next payoff? Or perhaps a transfer of U.S. gold to China under the table at sales prices.

I for one do not wish to stand in the gold line behind the Chinese��in addition to the Japanese. There can't be much time left.
sector
(05/05/2002; 09:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74933)
Gold and the Mainstream Financial Press...It's Radioactive
Why the WSJ will never write about the Gold Bull.It is a very simple premise. The Wall Street mainstream financial press is an extension of the Federal Reserve System. The Fed's mouth-piece.

The self appointed journalists of the Wall Street Journal are as biased against gold as the networks are against anti-liberal viewpoints. They can hardly be otherwise when they crave the favors of the moneyed princes of the Fed. The cocktail parties, the chauffeured limousines, the awards banquets...how could they possibly kiss all that off? To protect and defend journalistic integrity? What does integrity have to do with it?

The only investment class that is clearly moving upward these last few quarters is gold equities...not to mention the metal's move from $285 to $312 [10%] in just a few months.

Has the WSJ written about this new "Growth area"? No. Will they? No. To do so would constitute an insult to the Federal Reserve System and would cost the paper dearly. So there will be no report on gold unless it's negative in the main.

Several top reporters have been given deep details of the gold scandal and have sat on the story like heavy Buddha. Hypocrisy at work.

They failed to expose Enron when anyone remotely curious had the facts of corruption...the offshore connections were after all old hat because of the Hamanaka/Sumitomo copper fraud perpetrated by JPM.

I personally can attest to the pervasive influence of the JPM goons. I spoke directly with a lead attorney in the plaintiff's Sumitomo/JPM case. He was interested in data I created and whether it applied to copper. It didn't but I offered that JPM would be hurt by the gold market implications. "Your gold stuff will hurt JPM?" "Badly", was my answer. The attorney hung up so fast I thought his handset must have been burning him. Even adversarial plaintiffs are afraid of JPM and the Fed.

A corrupt press goes hand-in-hand with a corrupt Fed.

The brokerage scandal gets coverage because it doesn't threaten to unmask the fiat currency charade. Brokerages come and go as long as they push paper�why should the Fed care?

But writing about gold and its recent successful inroads threatens the continued dominance of unsupported paper currency and therefore the entire United States and world operational platform.

If the US currency fails the US fails. The story about gold is therefore radioactive�it must be killed.
Mr Gresham
(05/05/2002; 10:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74934)
New Jersey post office renamed for passenger on hijacked plane who uttered words 'Let's roll'
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020504/ap_wo_en_ge/us_attacks_post_office_2Todd Beamer: "Let's roll"

(To be in the history books with "Don't fire until..." and "Damn the torpedoes..."?)

When it's time to get up out of your seat...
Mr Gresham
(05/05/2002; 10:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74935)
Golden Bear
http://www.billparish.com/citigrouppyramidintro.htmlWith regard to the toppling of "big brothers", I've wanted for awhile to mention one of my most strongly remembered scenes from the movie "Dr. Zhivago".

The czarist officer is trying to rally the fleeing Russian troops (WWI) to go back and fight the Germans. He steps up on a barrel, standing on the lid, and waves his sword while he yells at them. They ignore him. Then the lid tilts or caves in, and he is plunged waist-deep into the barrel of water. He raises himself back up, sputtering, and bemoaning the spoiling of his fine uniform.

A passing veteran seargeant laughs, raises his rifle, and shoots him.

In the end, tyrants look ridiculous. They always overstay their loss of credibility.

Eastern European regimes (Ceaucescu for one) fell with about as much regard, once the crowds in the street saw that they were unified, and the soldiers were sympathetic.

Regarding banking, my guess would be that Robert Rubin at Citicorp has migrated to the designated strong rallying point. JPM is the sacrificial or scape-goat, with the derivs heaped high on its back, to be driven out of town.

When they had the Continental Illinois electronic bank run, the Fed backed anyone's deposits at all amounts, and the gov took over ownership.

In a modern run, circling the wagons, the Fed would let it be known it was bankrolling Citicorp and a few other strong regionals (politically-connected?) and you would be allowed to transfer your deposits there, in fact the Fed would do it for you, minus a "haircut" fee.

The money supply would reduce in one swift crunch -- but it would be the shaky flaky fringe money getting lopped off fast, like a cancer surgery, and leave the "strong" core money secure, at least for a business cycle longer. (If the Fed exists for ANYTHING, it is to create -- AND DEFINE -- the "what is money" question for our society.

The removal of worry over the middleground of financial institutions collapsing would be the smartest thing they could do to "sauve qui peut" -- save what they can for another day's profit.

Had another thought rattling around somewhere, but -- hey, when the coffee cup's on empty, and the baby's been screaming for a diaper change (just kidding) for half an hour, time to go...

(BTW, it's time for a re-linking to Bill Parish's site -- I read the essay here way-y-y back, so I'm not thinking of it's content in terms of this post, but it's probably close to relevant.)
mikal
(05/05/2002; 10:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74936)
Economy in Balance on Mideast Conflict
http://www.reuters.com_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=919...
May 05, 2002 11:17 AM � By Jon Herskovitz
NEW YORK (Reuters) - It may be hard to look at the bloodshed in the Middle East through the dispassionate eye of economics, with Israeli tanks rolling through Palestinian streets and suicide bombers setting off blasts that kill and maim dozens at Israeli markets.
But shock-waves from the conflict have not only pushed up prices at the gas pump, they have also hit investor confidence, dampening stocks, and added a few pennies to the cost of some products due to higher fuel and transportation charges..............
......Economists reckon that each rise of $1 a barrel in oil prices causes U.S. gross domestic product to shrink by about 0.05 percentage points. It is also like a tax on consumers as it raises prices and cuts into their buying power.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in April that energy prices had not yet risen to a point that would sap spending but warned a lasting surge in the cost of oil could have "far-reaching" consequences.
............"This is the kind of situation that is so fluid that there isn't a single story that everybody can bite into," he said. .....click link for more or visit the USAGOLD Live News page
Cavan Man
(05/05/2002; 11:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74937)
@USAGOLD
Christos Aneste!
Waverider
(05/05/2002; 11:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74938)
Black Blade
WOWWZZERS....Thank You! :)

I certainly have my reading cut out for awhile with these fabulous books. Yes...learning keeps the mind optimally fit as exercise keeps the body fit. Cheers!

Waverider
USAGOLD
(05/05/2002; 12:25:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74939)
CM. . . .
Christos Aneste! My friend. . . .May you and your family have the best of Easters.
GoldnSilver2002
(05/05/2002; 12:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74940)
Holy CR@p,JPM a scapegoat?
To my understanding JPM has a position in the tens of trillions in the derivatives market,the failure of JPM will not be a pleasant day.The gdp of the usa is 6 trillion ,give or take a trillion for accounting.To simply lose years of a countries wages is bad for everyone.As of now,americans,perhaps the most gun lovin'shoot em up and haller bunch of them all,has been acting very sanely.The american people have probably shown up their middle eastern brothers....so far.

I would like to see what happens when Bush declares,"it is illegal to own gold in the u.s.a!"If JPM were to collapse,it would be almost pointless to have money(fiat) in the bank,just ask the argentinians.Even if one had gold,would it be prudent to lug 1 to 10 kg bars around?No,i believe something'some form of batering/accounting will arise but the paper experiment(fiat) will be over soon.The house of cards isnt collapsing,it just on fire at several key points.On the one hand they wipe out wealth,on the other, debt also, because everybody in the chain including the government is broke.If no one pays no one, then you can have all the debt you want because hey,"how do you get blood out of a stone?"

What the hell is my point?At this point this site isnt just a place to herald the forthcoming rise of gold,but what to do when that happens?Which banks will stay intact?Will banking around the world collapse?What forms of gold should one hold?And why silver(the average joes money) is a highly valid alternative to gold.Will the stock market survive as it did in 1929 or will all wealth be eliminated in one quick day?Please do tell,ive got a ton o gold n silver,the problem is what now?
Belgian
(05/05/2002; 13:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74941)
The monetary feast (Aristotle # 74909)
Allow me some reflextions on your latest post.
The US as "banker of the world" is running a trade deficit
(1 billion $) to the equivalent of * 100 * metric tonnes of Gold PER DAY ! Ten times, daily Gold uptake ! This to have a better idea of what 1 billion dollars a day means in relation to the *Value* of 100 tonnes of Gold.

Dear Sir Aristotle, Gold was set Free and had a premature and aborted run in 1971 (to 1980) ! But suddenly the "central bankers" decided that they still had a chance / possibility to postpone the inevitable day of reckoning. They gathered all their concerting forces (worldwide) to lower the Interest Rates with almost zero as a target ! WHY ? Simply the only way left of declining the "automatic" DEBT GROWTH and give a desinflating economy the (futile) chance to catch up with debt and a degree of repayment (rotation/liquidity). And oh wonder...they succeeded in lowering those abysmal rates and artificial oxygenation of economic activity ! And here we are, at the end and emptyness of the tool-box. The consequential, building (irreversible) trade deficit and now increasing unemployment (6% and rising).

Those central bankers (brightest minds) were/are and will always be, political puppets on that used string. They delayed (aborted) the '71/'80 Gold rush and must FACE this *solution*, again, only 20 years later. It is in this context that your explanation/interpretation of the WA ('99) is *Very* plausible and very close to reality.
The cleariest of signals that the extension-time of intervention has run its cause and is already in over-time.

The coming Free Gold Market will be more frightening than the 1971/1980 attempt ! The illusion of being capable to domnesticate debt, will slowly but surely fade with a global economy not being able to expand on this monetary mismatch. Every possible relance will be a false one and doomed to fail, faster and faster. FREE GOLD WILL IMPOSE ITSELF !

Analog to what will happen this summer : The US/ISRAEL/ME/EUROLAND/RUSSIA, meeting to *IMPOSE* peace in the ME. Note the participation of Russia !

Gold was always ment to be Free and the banking system only denies this temporary. This past 20 years of "denial" will play a capital role in the evolvement of the Gold Revaluation. It will *not* be a halve job, imbedded in all sorts of compromises (crisis management). No Sir, it will be a Plain Vanilla FREE GOLD MARKET and nothing less !
Those who lost sight/touch of Gold will soon join the stampede/rush. Those who never understood it, will learn on the way to Gold's proper place and function within the monetary matters. The Jhonny come latelies will have to pay the big ticket at full price, sorry VALUE !

Nice and peacefull end of the week to you and all other forumers.
Aristotle
(05/05/2002; 13:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74942)
Max Rabbitz (05/05/02 msg#: 74928) and the Chinese
Thanks for sharing the numbers. When people read your comment (you said, "I figure 10% of $700bn is equal to 7056 tons of gold at $310 per ounce. How long will they wait?")
I hope people will also pause to remember my post from last week. The one about the conversation between two friends, one who bought a quantity of Gold, and one who merely wanted to exchange a quantity of notional money for Gold. As we'll recall, the latter of these two distinct objects can be the much easier to do.

With that said, maybe the Chinese are willing to wait until the full $700 billion can be converted into a convenient little lump of Gold the size of a teapot. Just think of the expenses they'll be spared in building their vault! On the other hand, as a nation we were foolish to get our Gold so early while it was inconveniently heavy for the price. We ended up with so very much Gold (for the price paid), that we had to spend a fortune on the design and construction of of massive vaults at Ft. Knox. Sheeeeeeeesh! Looks like the Chinese may have outwitted us.

But I'm sure it will be as FOA suggested. The U.S. will find its overall financial position and well-being best preserved by parting with a measure of our National Treasure. Ballast is rendered no less important simply because it must at time as these be offered unto the storm. After all, what good is "Money" if it can't be spent at times of dire need? Whether ours or another's, I expect the Chinese will make off with significantly more than a teapot-sized lump of Gold in exchange for their generous holdings of our debt securities.

There was a time when the political leaders of the "Free Peoples" of the earth, in rebuilding a war-shattered financial system, didn't want to let the value of Gold run because it would have provided a windfall boon to their adversarial counterparts in Africa and Soviet Union who were leading miners of the fresh metal.

So we got what we got, and have come to where we now are, one step at a time as economic and sociopolitical developments have allowed. Free markets will prevail in the end, of that I'm sure. The rest is just details for others as they seek to achieve the smoothest, most politically acceptable transition. But of course, nothing ever goes as smoothly as planned, and like two electrically charged ends being brought carefully closer to contact, an arc will suddenly complete the circuit ahead of "schedule" ... a variation of deliverance for Aragorn III's "lightening in the night" scenario.

Gold. Get you some ...there's electricity in the air. --- Aristotle
Aristotle
(05/05/2002; 13:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74943)
Belgian -- "FREE GOLD WILL IMPOSE ITSELF !"
Elegant in its accurate simplicy. I bow to you, good Sir!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
USAGOLD
(05/05/2002; 14:23:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74944)
Belgian. . .Aristotle. . . .A Simple Thought. . . .
As you say, we are in a time of transition in this fiat economy and it seems to me that when we look at the performance of various economies in times of transition, gold more often than becomes the most practical and reliable arbiter between the "old" and "new" economies -- no matter where you happen to live. Another analogy would be to say that it even serves as a bridge between the eras for those with the wisdom to use this transition tool to his or her advantage. In 1933, in the United States and in Europe -- gold served its owners well. In 1971 as well. In 1997 in Asia -- gold again did its job. And in Argentina in 2002 -- what would any Argentinian rather have owned?

Argentina, Russia AND the United States (should it become similarly afflicted) will not cease to exist and function as countries. Nor will their economies disappear -- though their currencies very well could (if they haven't already), if not in name at least in functionality. The system carefully constructed to support that currency could very well -- and probably will -- crumble as well. Cycles -- despite what the New Economy mavens -- would have had us believe are the only consistently present reality on this planet. Heeding that. . .one would be well advised to assume that a transition is inevitable and take the necessary precautions while one can, especially when one sees nothing but warning signs all around.

When one takes the sum of problems and corruptions at loose in the Amerian economy today -- from the sewage of derivatives accounting as Mr. Munger so inelegantly but forcefully put it yesterday to the rolling scandals on Wall Street of which the atatvistic analysts are just the most recent -- one must conclude we are observing symptoms of something deeper and more sinister at work than a few loose cannons. Who among us is willing to risk his or her hard won wealth on a bet that such symptoms DO NOT represent fatal, if not immobilizing, disease? Messrs. Buffet and Munger certainly do not appreciate the "smell" emanating from Wall Street these days. For the individual who does not know the form this transition will take, gold is a convenient parking place until things get sorted out. Traditionally, those who have make the Golden Choice tend to weather the storm and emerge on the other side prepared to take advantage of whatever opportunities might present themselves. Rubles, pesos, dollars and yen may dry up and fly with the wind, but hard metal -- detached from any politics, any system, any quid pro quo -- anchors wealth. Real wealth as you call it. Free gold as you foresee . . .in a Time of Troubles.

Sierra Madre made the interesting point several days ago that great pieces of real estate, antiques and art are available in Argentina for those with the assets to buy. And what is required to buy? Hard money. Something the recipient (seller) can utilize for his or her own purposes.

Aristotle: It's great to have you back.

Belgian: I wish you much success in tending that garden. It has already been an interesting spring.
slingshot
(05/05/2002; 14:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74945)
Rock msg# 74931
Taking PrecautionsAgain we approach the Hurricane and Fire Season in Florida.
Again I will see the very limited preparation taken by the general public to ease the effects of these natural disasters. We live on a dynamic planet constantly changing
with tornados, earthquakes,mudslides, blizzards,floods and volcanic eruptions. If these natural disasters are not enough,
the man made ones only compound the need to take precautions. Living near a oil refinery,nuclear power plant,or chemical plant, and the threat of terrorism could be a nightmare. Each event although having simular effects will have its own particular precautions to be taken. Depending on where you live, you may be subject to one or more of these possible problems. For sometime, we here at this forum, have been sounding the alarm for a disaster on the horizon, that will touch everyone on this planet.
It is a prediction with a sound basis and one we have time to prepare. The coming collapse of the worlds financial
markets. In the past, as well as in the future, we will try to warn others. Only to be laughed at and ridiculed because they either can not see or refuse to see our point of veiw.
We Goldbugs,(Chicken Littles), are a rare bunch consisting of doctors, teachers,real estate agents,oil rig workers'surfers,wrench turners and those who deal in Gold.
We are from the USA, China,Australia,Canada, Belgium and other points of the world.
In the furture we will have to make a decision as to whether or not to help those who laughed and ridiculed us in the past. Despite all the tough talk,(here and at other sites)
we in the end will take on the extra burden of helping others. Thats just the way we are. Truly a rare quality in todays world.
In conclusion, we must stay on the trail and try to enlighten others for if we do not, who will?

Thanks to MK, R, and all those at USAGOLD.

Slingshot---------------------------<>
USAGOLD
(05/05/2002; 15:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 74946)
Speaking of gardening. . . .and simple thoughts. . .
How many have seen the movie Being There? I had the opportunity to see it again for the first time in many years on one of the local television channels -- an extraordinary movie based on the book by Jerzy Kozinski. Peter Sellers plays the role of the simple (simpleton) gardener who casually states gardening principles and they are taken as incredible insights by those around him -- to the point that he becomes an confidant to one of America's wealthiest men and and advisor to the President of the United States. The concept works well because gardening is a metaphor for life, and because Sellers of course intends nothing by any of his allusions. He is simply talking about the only thing he knows -- gardening. We come to find out in the movie that the country is indeed run by a conspiracy, and in the end the simpleton -- who could care less about the direction of the country -- walks (Chaplinesque) on water testing the depth with his umbrella which he is using as a walking stick. None of this has anything to do with the subject at hand except as a side bar to Belgian's garden -- long may it grow, my friend. Life is full of double meanings, hidden growth, realized and unrealized potential. Sometimes we yearn for things that are fully within our grasp and we don't even know it.
ax
(05/05/2002; 16:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74947)
U.S. SECURITY DEMANDS MORE U.S. GOLD RESERVES

U.S. SECURITY DEMANDS MORE U.S. GOLD RESERVES


Citizens of the United States should be concerned foremost with
the absolute gold tonnage held by the U.S. Treasury to back the
U.S. Dollar.


The U.S. Dollar is the world's reserve currency. It is the reference currency by which all other currencies are measured. It makes no
sense for the United States to hold foreign exchange reserves of other
countries since its own currency, the USD, is the primary currency.


What the United States must do, for its own security , is to hold as much
gold in its treasury as possible to back its own U.S. Dollar.


The U.S. Treasury must buy more gold either on the market or off market (private
placement from Swiss/German CFB etc. ) at every opportunity.


U.S. Gold reserves have the highest percentage of gold in their reserve
composition compared to foreign currencies but this is only a relative indicator.
Foreign countries must include substantial percentages of foreign currencies in their
reserve composition, particularly the USD, since the USD is the world's primary
currency.


Since the US dollar is considered to be the world's reserve currency, there is no natural
limit to the amount of gold that should be in the US Treasury to back
this world reserve currency.


This last point is the key :

THERE IS NO NATURAL LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT OF GOLD
THAT SHOULD BE IN THE U.S. TREASURY TO BACK THIS WORLD RESERVE
CURRENCY ( THE U.S. DOLLAR)


The only rational way to " pump money into the system"
is to greatly expand the money supply and back it with
substantially higher gold reserves. This offsets the
concommitant devaluation of the U.S. Dollar and inflation
that ensues from such monetary expansion.


AX

Leigh
(05/05/2002; 16:44:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74948)
Waverider
http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=screensaversThis link to the U.S. Mint screensavers will allow you to download Eagle Program (gold, silver, plat) screensavers for your office computer. Your screensaver will be the talk of the office, and you should get lots of inquiries about gold! It's a lot safer than taking coins in to work!
goldquest
(05/05/2002; 16:50:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74949)
@ ax Ref: Gold Reserves
My guess is that the U S has more gold accumulated than most of us care to realize. When the time is right, gold will again play a major role in world finances. The U S will not be caught short in the world game of monetary chess. All the more reason to be in the gold game now, through physical and gold stocks.
Cavan Man
(05/05/2002; 17:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74950)
@Aristotle
The path is so clear.
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 17:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74951)
@Rock, @Mr Gresham,
Rock,

Thank you for the words of support and information. Regarding the 4 G's, Australians are banned from owning any handguns and semi automatic rifles. Hunters with permits can own single or double barrel shotguns, but that's about it. It will have to do...

Mr Gresham,

thanks for the laugh - I was 14 when Dr Zhivago came out and my Dad being a history buff took us to see it at the drive in. Damn 3 1/2 hr movie nearly killed my brother and I from sheer boredom (11 and 14 year olds don't have the same sense of history as we older and wiser folk), I do believe it would have quite a different impact on me seeing it now.

As for the government allowing a controlled failure of some institutions, the assumption is that they can control it at all. Like a nuclear reaction, once you get to a certain critical level of cascading fission run amuck, it is impossible to stop. Will this time be the financial Chernobyl that scorches the whole financial landscape leaving those with their golden antiradiation suits left standing? Are we seeing this fission reaction beginning now in gold's upward move, ready to go parabolic? Only time will tell....

Thanks for the reposting of Bill Parish's link. Will read with interest.

Regards,

GB.

Waverider
(05/05/2002; 17:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74952)
Leigh
Thanks for the tip. I'll try it as a screen saver at the office and see what the responses are. I wasn't thinking of loose coins, but a Gold coin made into a pendant...it would be visible and relatively safe. I'm trying to think of some creative ways to engage people in discussion about Gold...stimulate their curiosity as it were so they're motivated to learn more. Thanks again for the tip, always appreciate your thoughts and contributions. Cheers!
Waverider
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 17:47:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74953)
ax (msg#: 74947)
It is not possible IMHO for the USA to accumulate bullion in sufficient quantities to offset the exploding printing and flooding of fiat into the system. The scarcity of gold and its use in a gold backed monetary system has its main function of limiting this printing of confetti, and is one reason Nixon severed the last remaining link between the two.

As for the USA gold reserves, the assumption is that no other country has a claim to what is in its vaults, and who knows what will happen if the USA defaults on these claims if in fact they do exist...

Cheers.
Interstate
(05/05/2002; 17:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74954)
Food Storage

Reading this forum everyday is like getting a huge dose of knowledge. I thank each of you.

I noticed that food storage was mentioned a few times today. Good. But, I have one suggestion. Don't rely heavily on dried foods because of the water that is needed to rehydrate them. Buy plenty of juices and other ready to drink liquids. Someone (Rock, I think) mentioned hurricanes. Living in Florida, I have been through several and the water supply either cannot be pumped through the municipal pipes because there is no electricity or the water supply gets polluted. It is almost unbelievable how much water a family uses in one day. The first storm, we had 50 gallons of stored water. Electricity was off for 6 days. We were very frugal with our water and still, we were using our last gallon when the power came on. One gallon per person per day.....is NOT enough.

What we are preparing for will probably last longer than 6 days. Food? Yes. Medicines? yes. And lots and lots of water (drinking, baths, brushing teeth, washing dishesand clothes, cooking, etc.) Most of us know this but as was mentioned, constant reminders are good.

For the summer, several battery operated fans. Of course, there are hundreds of survival books and info on the web. Just use the info in them.

Later, Interstate
mikal
(05/05/2002; 17:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74955)
@Golden Bear
If the USA gold reserves are ever auditted and found to be the 8000+ tons claimed by some- Who owns it? Its been said the Federal Reserve took ownership and custody from the US Treasury Dept. If this is so, wouldn't that make it easier to swap physical under the various scenarios discussed here today? After all, birds of feather flock together, even the scavengers.
slingshot
(05/05/2002; 18:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74956)
Seige Engine
Gold above $300.00 and climbingIt has been many days and nights that the castle has been under attack. Each day Sir Howe and his men move closer.
The Lord of the Castle has not slept well for stone by stone has entered his courtyard, his main hall, knights barracks and stores. Each day he waits the Goldbugs and their machine become more accurate. He must do something but what? Should he mount an attack with heavy horses? It is a long way across the field to their lines.As he gives thought to his battle plan he is again called to the wall.
The stones are now striking at the base of the tall tower.
Why would they be doing that when they could easily bring down the front gate. It becomes apparent as he watches the debris fall into the moat. First bring down the tower into the moat and make a second crossing. Then bring down the main gate. He would have to split his men to defend the castle. Divide and conquer.
mikal
(05/05/2002; 18:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 74957)
@Waverider
Those are both good ideas. I have seen them both. You may wish to call around your town, to the coin shops. I have purchased used sovereigns, a small panda, and other coins in 14kt bezels that way. Never paid much over melt. Some of them get a little "sweater rub" on the back or suffer from polishing, so they sell as used/circulated coins. Kind of like "wearing your colors". Definitely a worthy and subtle fashion statement or accent. The US Mint has featured gold -bezeled Eagles in their catalog, for a price (soon to be value ;))
Mr Gresham
(05/05/2002; 18:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74958)
Golden Bear, slingshot
Nice to have a poster from Oz here (have we lost a few?)

Of course they MUST assume they can control the meltdown -- they're the Fed and it's their job, their reason for existence. They might fail, but they have to pick their best shot, whatever the likelihood.

What they need to do is pick the point of inflection, both timewise, and dollar implosion-wise, where the first level of collapse has exhausted itself a bit. What they trade on is ===== CONFIDENCE ===== and the desire to believe. If people during the collapse are afraid their world is ending, and the Fed (with media help) steps in to "restore confidence", that desire can be rounded up to sandbag the levee one more time. There are probably studies of how a collapse has been "sandbagged" in other countries (Russia '98?) and a recovery core preserved for favored players.

Slingshot -- helping people. Of course we will, but the task will be so large, it's like trying to pick up Titanic survivors in a rowboat -- they'll swamp you in minutes.

Better to use what we've LEARNED here, about money and its use in exchange systems. Local barter-type moneys sprung up during the Depression, and experiments in recent years (LETS, Ithaca NY) have touched on alternatives to centrally-printed dollars.

Helping people identify the source of their impoverishment, and how to isolate and cut off the economic leakages out of their communities in time to maintain some living standards, by using the local resources and skills at maximum efficiency, and keeping the benefits close to home...

Golden Calf
(05/05/2002; 18:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74959)
The US$, Gold, and conventional thinking
Much of what's been written, said, and perceived
is what can be expected rhetoric, in any market
climate.
I've found it helpful to take the longer view
point, which often shows that a short term trend
may be just that, and may often confuse and confound
those that look at, and study it.

The dollar sure looks like it is about to plunge,
right?
Take a look at the index both weekly and monthly
and see if you might not change your mind.
http://209.130.50.65/cstrad/chart.htm#indices

The opposite might be true for gold.
Cavan Man
(05/05/2002; 18:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74960)
@Aristotle
A retreat, hastily beaten, might take 3-4 years in our ancient, favorite market. Recently, I read a general chastisement of the US current account imbalance by Mr Prodi. The term, "political will" was used. Where have we heard that before?



Gold is political dynamite. Understanding the politics is step one in an education to last a lifetime.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/05/2002; 18:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74961)
ramblings
So how many sunken Spanish Galleons do they have to find to replenish the gold that is supposed to be in Fort Knox? If they can walk on the moon, can they walk around under the great depths of the sea. At $1000 or $2000 per ounce gold everybody and his brother will be fitting on tanks and playing with metal detectors. Out west there won't be any unemployment either. Just stand upwind of the dust. So gold has all its own industries associated with it. There are tons and tons of treasure out there but the cost of recovery and the risk of finding nothing are still too great. Mel Fisher will be passing out free donuts soon enough. That's what I think will happen. The price will fly upwards and bring capitalism forces into play and then "supply" will somehow arrive. The lag time though is going to prevent any breaking of this pending rally. It was 20 years ago when this scenario set up like it has. It is still not believed. It's going to knock paper-man off his chair. Then millenium-gold man will take his chair and drive his car and live in his house, and walking quietly to the mailbox sipping cappachino slow. ...................-GR2

"For a nation is no greater than that nation's womens ability to raise good children" -Iroquois Indian proverb

So let the Espaniolistas cross or borders, no one wants to dig potatoes or hang drywall anyway. Yes, open immigration for Tiawan and Korea and whoever else wants to work for a living so we can tax something. We could beat Japanese industry with Chinese industry seeing as they both hate each other so much. America could use about 40 million gold stashing oriental women too, complete with rice cookers. Then the slack out there "runnin witda bruthas" gets replaced. OK I'll stop there. Back to gold: It seems to be doing quick reactions to the dollar's fall. I think it was arbitrage dealing that made the POG rally on Friday. Gold didn't go up the whole US economy fell down by 5 bucks (the devaluation has already started).
Rock
(05/05/2002; 18:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74962)
Interstate --- Food Storage
Your right about needing extra water to use with those dehydrated foods. Water has about a year shelf life and even longer if you add a little clorex. I picked up six 50 gallon blue plastic FDA barrels right on the internet. Assuming one has the place to store them ( basement ) they arn't expensive at all and well worth it if you have the space.

I also picked up about 8 of the 15 gallon FDA barrels as well and I wish i had gone with all 15 gallon barrels in stead of the 50 galloners because the smaller barrels are easier to change the water than the big boys but bottom line is water is the most important resourse you can have when it comes to survival.

I have canned goods also and they have a good two or three year shelf life so that works good also. Juices I found go bad after about a year and you can drink them before they go bad but water is easy to change every year with less cost. And your right about a gallon a day per person "miminal" to use, for drinking 2 quarts, cooking, tea, coffee another quart and a half) and washing yourself down with a wash cloth, brushing teeth ect can go into even more, bottom line under two gallons per adult should be suffice.

Thanks for your imput and your right if you don't have the room for water storage then suppliment with juices and bottled water is the next best thing. But keep some drinking water on hand thats for sure. Thanks for your imput, we all need to know the pluses and minuses as we consider the options and unique circumstances each of us have.

Cheers, looking forwared to a big day tomorrow at the NYSE go gold.

Rock

Rock
slingshot
(05/05/2002; 19:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74963)
Mr Gresham Msg#74958
Helping othersI do agree with you sir. We can only hope there is enough of us with the necessary skills to go around to accomplish what you stated in your last paragraph.
slingshot--------------------<>
YGM
(05/05/2002; 19:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74964)
Food Storage...............Helpful Tip!
http://www.google.ca/search?q=Vacuum+Sealer&hl=en&btnG=Google+Search&meta=Vacuum sealing foods in Mason Jars is the absolute best way and also the least expensive....You buy flour, beans, rice etc etc in bulk w/o the preservatives found in freeze dried stuff....Anything dry can be stored for eternity this way.....Seeds for gardening have an endless mortality rate.....Ammunition stays moisture proof.....Sealing in Bags is OK for shorter periods of time but Jars are cheap and stack well in basement pantry.....Onion seed normally is only viable from one year to the next and beyond that won't germinate well.....Tests have been done with Vacuum sealed onion seed after 10 yrs, and better than 90% sprouted.....Any survival minded folk should have this unit if only to keep your Gold from tarnishing or oxidizing :>))

Hope this info is useful to some......YGM.

PS: Medicines (pills etc) store for years this way. Air is definately a deterrent to longevity of many things we take for granted on store shelves.....Heck if Boy Scouts can "Be Prepared" what's wrong with grown folks with responsibilities of family life doing the same......HUH!
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 19:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74965)
mikal (msg#: 74955)
Sir,

I agree, and let us not forget that the Fed is a private corporation. Who do they serve and if they have control of the bullion, who knows what kind of deals have been done under the table...

Cheers.
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 19:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74966)
Petroleum and PMs Lower
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The POO is lower on news of a deal being struck between the Israelis and Palestinians over the Church of the Nativity standoff in Bethlehem. Meanwhile tensions are still high after Israeli forces killed a Palestinian mother and her two children. It appears that there may be some deal in the works and so the POO is falling in response. Natural Gas has fallen in sympathy.

Gold is off slightly, though this too may be a muted reaction to the Middle East situation as well as sllight gains in the USD Index. If anyone is interested - the platinum lease rates are still rather high (in the 8% range). There is growing concern that the Russians may be unable to deliver PGMs from declining production at Norilsk. The only reason that PGMs haven't rocketed lately is due to the deepening Global Recession.

Wall Street will still be mired under relentless scandals, growing unemployment and declining corporate earnings. There just isn't any capital expenditures from US businesses to keep this house of cards standing much longer. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 19:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74967)
Golden Calf (msg#: 74959)
You are right, the dollar's current fall is only a beginning trend on the shorter time frame. All it takes is the trend to continue in the shorter time frame to become a longer term trend with a substantial price movement.

Time will reveal all...

Cheers.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/05/2002; 19:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74968)
Golden Calf


I saw the charts. Looks like a technical bounce is about due a little lower. Still it is coming off a 3 mtn. top and the whole six month pattern is a high handle. Major resistance is at 10400. OK so say it bounces up and heads back up. Who is going to show up for $22 Billion of 5-year bond sales in late June? Have you ever tried refinancing your house with bad credit and no job. That's OK too because they can just raise the debt ceiling above 6 TRILLION doll hairs. With a 1 to 1 conversion ratio of doll hairs to dollars, which side of the trade would you want. Our currency is redeamable in Chinese made goods, plain and simple. Without the China trade the prices of goods would skyrocket. We export inflation and import deflation. US dollars used to be redeamable in hot tech stocks. Now these companies have no earnings and European blue chips will be catching a free ride as the dollar falls.

Off of this one year "leg up" of the dollar, which way will it go next? Cycles happen. The Clintoons had it all rigged so well. Bush isn't that slick of a liar. He doesn't look like JFK nor does he talk like Elvis. The past cycle cannot be repeated. We are in a depression and at best it will end up in stagflation. It could take between 5-10 years for it to recover after all the bad credit is wiped out. You'll see clothing styles change over the time period. M-3 dollars are "suspended" in derivative casinos. If they unwind the derivatives market it brings all that money back out looking for a home. If China ever gets tired of holding our bonds then how can we sell more? Bond sales are keeping the dollar up, leveraged faith. They got China to buy Japan's bonds. So the shell and the nut game goes on. Greenspan already admitted they cannot measure M-3. So the FED policy revolves around data collected domestically. The house has to be surrounded by sandbags to keep this M-3 out like a flood. That is why they invented derivatives to soak up excess M-3. It's larger than life. Our minds cannot grasp the meaning of a $16 Trillion net short position in gold derivatives. They could just close all the banks and issue new funny money. One currency backed by gold for foreign exchange and worthless scrip for those stuck on this big island. That is basically happened after 29. The foreign banks raced after all the gold certificates they could get and then they redeamed them at the treasury. FDR was forced to confiscate gold to redeam the bearer notes. China functions with a currency no one else wants. What makes you think the US won't one day end up the same way. You tell me of the fall of Rome, I'll tell you of the fall of Pompeii, the fall of Sodom was before that, and a giant flood that made the grand canyon came before that.

A weak culture will always be superceded be a stronger one.
Golden Bear
(05/05/2002; 19:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74969)
Mr Gresham (msg#: 74958)
Ah yes, the confidence game... what a fantastic game of chess we are all involved in.

Japanese politicians, having pulled out nearly every trick in the bag over the last 10 years to convince its people that all is OK are now seeing that everything in this universe is cyclical...push the pendulum too far to the right, and it will eventually swing back to the left. They are in the process of running out of force to keep that pendulum suspended on one side.

Might not the Fed soon be in a similar position?

Fascinating...
Cavan Man
(05/05/2002; 19:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74970)
POG
In the medium term, the valuation of one ounce of pure gold has nothing to do with the Palestinians and Arabs; nothing to do with natural disasters; nothing to do with US equities and nothing to do with charts and graphs and stars and soothsayers. The reason to buy and hold gold now is purely monetary. Yes, I know many were saying same twenty years ago and yes, it is different this time.

Don't hope for bad news in the headlines. Buy gold.
IGWA
(05/05/2002; 19:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74971)
Survival! Now We're Getting Down To It!!
Good to see the site evolving - never mind about gold, water and food is what you'll need.

When the World Council bans gold, they may come looking for your water & food too. To share with those who didn't plan ahead. Sounds fair to me.

Cheers!

igwa "Always looking on the bright side"
slingshot
(05/05/2002; 20:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74972)
CavanMan Msg#74970
POGJust Buy Gold!
Slingshot-----------------<>
slingshot
(05/05/2002; 20:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74973)
IGWA Msg# 74971
Think AgainWatch out for those anti-hoarding laws IGWA. They'll getcha.
Slingshot-------------<>
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 21:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74974)
How Corrupt Is Wall Street?
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_19/b3782001.htm
New revelations have investors baying for blood, and the scandal is widening

Snippit:

When Debases Kanjilal, a Queens (N.Y.) pediatrician, picked up his phone in early 2001 to call lawyer Jacob H. Zamansky, he had no idea he would whip up a full-fledged hurricane on Wall Street. Kanjilal claimed he lost $500,000 investing in Infospace Inc. (INSP), an Internet stock he says his Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) broker urged him not to sell when it was trading at $60 a share. By the time he sold, it was down to $11. Zamansky filed a novel arbitration claim against Merrill in March, 2001, in which he argued that its star Net analyst, Henry Blodget, had misled investors by fraudulently promoting the stocks of companies with which the firm had investment banking relationships. That lawsuit led directly to an investigation by New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who stunned Merrill and its Wall Street brethren three weeks ago when he made public some shocking e-mail exchanges between Merrill analysts and bankers.

Black Blade: A lot of heads are gonna roll. The likes of Henry Blodgett and Mary Meeker have left a lot of destruction in their wake and now brokerages across the land will be fines, sanctioned, and buried under an avalanche of lawsuits. This is just the beginning, wait until the telecom losses bring out the next wave of angry investors seeking retribution. And remember the day-trader a couple of years ago that killed his family and then went on a rampage killing day-traders and employees? "Interesting Times"

IGWA
(05/05/2002; 21:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74975)
Slingshot
Yep. And it's hard to hide 20,000 gals of water.....
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 21:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74976)
Natural-Gas Prices Rebound After Falling Most of Last Year
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020505/200205052245000118_2.html
After falling most of last year, natural-gas prices have rebounded strongly, confounding experts who had expected healthy inventories and lackluster demand to keep prices in check this spring.

The higher prices are starting to translate into higher electricity bills in some parts of the country. They have also set the stage for steeper gas-price increases later this year, should demand from power plants and industrial users pick up.

Spot natural gas was trading at about $3.65 per million British thermal units late Friday. That is still down from about $4.45 per million BTUs a year earlier, but up more than 80% from late January, when prices appeared to have bottomed out from a long, steady decline following an extraordinary price shock in late 2000.


Black Blade: These higher energy costs will eat into consumers wallets and drop to the corporate bottom line. What many analysts don't understand about the rising natural gas price is that drilling activity has fallen off sharply and without the replacement of these dwindling reserves we are looking at the very minimum of a replay of last year's energy crisis and probably an energy crisis of epic proportions. The analysts are quick to point out that NG inventory is very high. That may be true, but without a growing injection that supply will be drawn off just as quick. Not to mention that several new storage facilities have been built in order to feed the growing number of natural gas-fired power plants. What may be developing is a looming energy crisis that could hit hard when least desired (late winter-early spring). Rabid environmentalism has resulted in the loss of Alaskan energy reserves from ANWR and now the focus of environmental extremists is on the Rocky Mountain reserves from Montana to New Mexico (a major source of energy for the Rockies and California). In short, the long touted US economic recovery is very much in doubt.
Black Blade
(05/05/2002; 23:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74977)
Why gold regained its glory
http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2002/05/05/business/news/news01.asp
Snippit:

Gold Fields president and chief operating officer-designate Ian Cockerill put it this way at the Paydirt Conference in Perth in March: "As they say in the movies, if it walks like a bull, and talks like a bull, then a bull it is."

Anglogold's chief executive Bobby Godsell is positive gold will hold onto its current prices - Friday's $312 per ounce was a 26-month high - and the group is reducing its hedge book dramatically. (Miners hedge or sell forward output to lock in prices as a protection against price falls. They lose out, however, if prices rise above those that have been contracted.)

Gold and the US dollar, the saying goes, enjoy a counter-cyclical relation: dollar strong, gold down; dollar weak, gold up. But it is perhaps simplistic to attribute gold's good fortune only to the plight of the US dollar - which has lost clout over other currencies.

The big question, though, remains: How long can it last? "You may as well ask, 'How long is a piece of string?'," says Cockerill. Vague answer and probably a stupid question - but then he did suggest the dollar's recovery was still a long way off. "There was a time when people spoke of gold as a barbarous relic, that its time was over."

That was just two decades ago, but, as he points out, gold has been viewed as a safe haven, an insurance asset, if not the only insurance asset, for two millennia. "Two thousand years of history is not wiped out within two decades." And despite the fact that demand outstrips new mine supply by more than 1 000 tons a year, the market is comfortable that supply deficit can be serviced from new mine supplies, supplemented by Central Bank sales and producer hedging. Cockerill points out that there has been very little investment in reserve replenishment or exploration since 1997. But a higher gold price, on a steady fixed course, could address that.


Black Blade: The situation is that world Gold supply will continue to decline in the face of declining mine reserves and virtually no new exploration. There will be no supply from Central Banks (never was) as they only trade among themselves for the most part. With a weakening US Dollar, tensions in the ME, declining stock markets, insolvent banking systems from Argentina to Japan to Russia to (insert name here), unwinding of hedge books, etc. The POG is more than likely to move to much higher levels over the next several months.
Sierra Madre
(05/05/2002; 23:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74978)
Sierra Madre reporting from Norwegian Majesty, mid Atlantic...

Had a very interesting conversation with a prominent Peruvian lawyer from Lima this evening, on this cruise ship sailing to Bermuda.

This lawyer was strongly impressed with the argument for a silver currency for Peru - one of the largest producers of silver in the world. It was fascinating to see how the idea took hold.

The I.M.F. is seen, in Peru, as a vindictive institution that imposes policies completely detrimental to Peru. For instance, absolutely no assistance to agriculture is to be allowed; this, while the U.S. passes legislation in favor of $180 billion in agricultural assistance to U.S. farmers over a 10 year period!

There is only ONE way to achieve some sort of national independence with regard to policies which favor the nations of Latin America, and that is through a monetary system that is not parasitical on the U.S. dollar - a money that has its own intrinsic value, and thus does not have to rely on reserves of U.S. dollars. Otherwise, Latin America will be forever dancing to the U.S. dollar tune.

Once ideas begin to germinate, there is no telling what the consequences will be.

The President of Peru may soon be hearing about silver, and as he is struggling to retain popularity, and has no clear program for his country, he just MIGHT take up the flag of monetary reform based on silver.
......

So much material on usagold this evening! Hard to read it all! Exciting times; this intellectual ferment heralds BIG changes ahead. Is it too far-fetched to compare with the ideas that were being discussed in the Colonies in 1775? Look at what happened in '76.

The Revolutionary Patriots in America had their "Committees of Correspondence" to exchange views. This the internet provides today.

"Don't tread on me"

Sierra
Gandalf the White
(05/06/2002; 00:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74979)
SPOT is getting ready to JUMP !!!
<;-)
Spartacus
(05/06/2002; 01:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74980)
UK's Griffiths sees UK in euro within 2 yrs
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_581952.html?menu=business.currencynews
Nigel Griffiths, the Small Business Minister, predicted that the UK will adopt the euro within two years.

He told The Times newspaper: "I think we will be in (the euro) within two years if things go as they are and we meet our economic tests, and my hunch is we will."

Belgian
(05/06/2002; 03:18:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74981)
USAGOLD # 74944 The Golden Choice
Gold, at present, is indeed a Very convenient parking place, from all possible points of vieuw. The massive proliferation of Debt-Weed into the economic garden must be destroyed together with many good crops, before new harvests can be organized. The actual rolling scandals are an addition to the underlying mega-scandal of currency falsification ! This is * SYSTEMIC * ! And it is the full meaning of "systemic" that is not understood by the masses.
They still do mix accidental cyclic waves (infla/defla-blahblah) with systemic linear detoriation (permanent currency depreciation). Two completely different processes.

Gold's parking place will evolve to a Gold headquarter and later on to "the" reference anchor-point.

Compare this process with what happened (accidently) in France on the political arena. Ultra conservative and anti Euroland, Le Pen, lost his retrospective nostalgia, against a modern reality of European unification. Five years ago, everyone talked (cynicaly) about the euro as zeuro (zero) !
See what a difference a (voting) day makes !

The balancing between trust/distrust of a currency and its GoldValue, remains a very, very delicate and difficult task for all monetary managers. The "perceptions" of the general public with regard to their respective currency and its alternative(s) require a lot of emotional intelligence from the ones who have this job of perception-management.
Panic and euphoria are so close to each other. Therefore, GOLD must operate under cover !
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 03:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74982)
Asia Awash in Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are negative this morning. Today should be an interesting battle as foriegn nations struggle to maintain a weaker currency against the USD. Foriegn manufacturers are working overtime to maintain a weaker currency for manufacturers to export cheaper goods to the US. Even so, the USD in grossly overvalued. It could get interesting today in NY.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 04:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74983)
Iraq to resume oil exports overnight on Tuesday
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=12010169
Snippit:

BAGHDAD: Iraq will resume oil exports, suspended for a month in retaliation for Israel's West Bank offensive against the Palestinians, on the night of Tuesday-Wednesday (May 7-8), state television announced here Sunday. The decision to resume crude exports halted on April 8 was taken during the weekly cabinet meeting chaired by President Saddam Hussein following the failure of other Arab oil producers to join the embargo, it said.

But "brotherly Arab oil producers did not respond to the Iraqi initiative by taking similar steps such that everyone would succeed" in achieving the objectives of the boycott, the cabinet said, according to the TV report. Iraq, which exports around two million barrels of oil a day, halted crude exports on April 8 for at least 30 days in protest at Israel's military assault on the West Bank, which the Palestinians say killed hundreds, and US support for the Jewish state.


Black Blade: Oil prices have dropped overnight. Iraq threw a party and no one came. Besides, the US imports about 1 million bbl/day of Iraqi oil.

Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 04:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74984)
USD Gains, PMs Fall, Petroleum Falls
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
World currencies are falling against the USD, Gold is lower, and petroleum prices are falling hard on reduced recession demand.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 05:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74985)
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett predicts a nuclear attack on America
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020506/ap_wo_en_ge/us_buffett_nuclear_attack_1
Snippit:

OMAHA, Nebraska - Investment guru Warren Buffett (news) offered a bleak prediction for the nation's national security, saying a terrorist attack on American soil is "virtually a certainty." Envy and dislike of the United States have fueled rage against the country even as the ability to build a nuclear device has spread, Buffett said Sunday at the final day of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s annual meeting. "We're going to have something in the way of a major nuclear event in this country," said Buffett, the firm's chief operating officer. "It will happen. Whether it will happen in 10 years or 10 minutes, or 50 years ... it's virtually a certainty." Washington and New York would be the top two targets because terrorists want to traumatize the country and kill as many people as possible, Buffett said.


Black Blade: Well, if the target is Washington I don't see much downside. That's one way to clear out the deadwood.
Golden Bear
(05/06/2002; 05:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74988)
Black Blade (msg#: 74985)
"Well, if the target is Washington I don't see much downside. That's one way to clear out the deadwood."

For a potentially horrific topic, your comment is damn funny!

Cheers.
Rock
(05/06/2002; 05:46:54 MDT - Msg ID: 74989)
Warren Buffet lashes out calling Wall Street Crooks
For the second richest man in the world call wall street crooks upset quite a lot of people out there but he expresses our sentiments exactly.

"Snippit" "Many of the crooks look like crooks," said Mr Buffett. "Wall Street loves them as long as they are pushing out securities." Mr Buffett, known affectionately as the Sage of Omaha, said a good way to spot possible frauds was to keep a close eye on those companies that reported results using Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation).

Mr Munger, 78, also sounded a warning over companies involved in derivatives, saying. "To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage," he fumed.

Mr Buffett also backed a call made last week by Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, to clamp down on the "shameful" way that companies inflated their profits by excluding employee share options from the main body of their accounts.

He did not expect regulators to heed Mr Greenspan's call, however, because chief executives were lobbying hard in Washington and "get what they want every year".

Cheers,

Rock
"Snippit"
Mr Gresham
(05/06/2002; 06:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74990)
Muddy Puddles
Sometimes it's best just not to say anything...
Golden Bear
(05/06/2002; 06:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74991)
Mythical (msg#: 74986) Ponderings from former knights
Firstly, I don't recall Another or FOA putting a time limit on when their view of the future would transpire... strike 1.

Secondly, the quote..

" It's already stamped, minted, on their coins: $1 Silver and
$50 Gold. Dollars of a New Reality."

is an absolute farce. Since when did the Fed and US Treasury become Gods and decided what the intrinsic worth of bullion would be by stamping some arbitrary value on their minted coins... strike 2.

Thirdly, the quote..

"Sure, the Europeans are good people. I'm not denigrating them. And they too
are no dummies. Sweeping their Euro pride aside, they know the strength of the
US$ is a favorable situation. Else their exports crash. Their jobs crash. Their
entire economies crash. First. The USA may crash as well. But recovery, if it
comes will be US$ based, and the priming engine will be the USA economy."

he got his argument ass backward. The dollar will sink when it is perceived that the US economy is going down the toilet, and they will not reinvest dollars into dollar denominated assets. Their exports will continue, allbeit at a continually slower rate, but they have already realized that US asset classes are way overvalued for the returns (if any) they currently provide and are turning off the taps... strike 3.

Thai Gold, Diogenes...you're out!

Cheers.
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 06:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74992)
Analysts' pay linked to winning banking deals-WSJ
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020506/financial_analysts_report_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Analysts were offered bonuses and a percentage of the profits from investment banking deals in recent years, job contracts from major Wall Street firms show, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Monday.


Black Blade: Another smoking gun? Hmmm�

Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 06:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74993)
Peregrine Systems Announces Internal Accounting Investigation

SAN DIEGO -(Dow Jones)- Peregrine Systems Inc. (PRGN) is conducting an internal investigation into possible accounting problems and announced the resignation of its chairman and chief executive and chief financial officer. In a press release Monday, Peregrine said its board authorized an audit committee investigation into possible inaccuracies brought to its attention by KPMG, the company's independent auditors. KPMG was hired by Peregrine in April to replace Arthur Andersen LLP for the audit of the company's recently completed fiscal year....


Black Blade: Yep, another accounting scandal. Guess who the auditor is. Of course it's Arthur Andersen! Who else could it be? PRGN is off over 50% this morning as they will go tits up just like other AA audited companies.
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 06:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74994)
Peregrine to investigate accounting, CEO, CFO quit
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020506/tech_peregrine_1.html
Snippit:

SAN DIEGO, May 6 (Reuters) - Software maker Peregrine Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:PRGN - news) on Monday said it was investigating potential accounting inaccuracies and announced the resignation of its top two executives. The company said the focus of the probe is $100 million of revenue recorded during fiscal 2001 and 2002. Transactions were recorded initially as revenue from indirect channels and may have been written off in later quarters, it said.


Black Blade: well well, now they are dropping like flies. Legal investigation rumors are now flying!

Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 06:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74995)
BHP Billiton drops Andersen after 60 years
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3L718UR0D&live=true&tagid=FTD3ANIJFEC⊂heading=mining
Snippit:

BHP Billiton, the world's biggest resources group, has dumped Andersen as its auditor after more than 60 years of service. The move, which comes less than a month after News Ltd, the Australian arm of Rupert Murdoch's media group, also dropped the embattled firm, is a blow to Ernst & Young which is taking over Andersen's local practice.

Black Blade: Interesting move as today is the first day of the Arthur Andersen trial. Paper Shredder extraordinaire David Duncan is expected to testify. Meanwhile, companies are dropping AA like a hot potato.

Cavan Man
(05/06/2002; 07:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74996)
Mr Gresham
{0}
Interstate
(05/06/2002; 07:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74997)
Anderson Accounting Firm

Yes, BB, and I also saw that Bank of China, Hong Kong has switched from Anderson to Price Waterhouse.

Interstate
Interstate
(05/06/2002; 08:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74998)
@Leigh

Leigh, what's the point? I'm sure that Mr. Vronsky likes to make his own decisions. Reminds me of how teachers (Mr. Vronsky) think that a tattle-tale (Leigh) is suggesting that the teacher is unaware or has no concern for what goes on in his classroom (forum).

Even I, who seldom posts (but always reads) could tell what was/is going on. Please don't taint this elite forum.

Well wishes,
Interstate
YGM
(05/06/2002; 08:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74999)
What's Up With This..........Russian Market 1929 style????
Russia Moscow Times ^MTMS 8:54am 3417.18... -1455.70... -29.87% Are these numbers for real????
Leigh
(05/06/2002; 08:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75000)
Interstate
Hi, Interstate. I understand how you feel, since I have seen other people get ratted on and felt incensed about it. This particular issue goes deep (lots of behind the scenes stuff) and has to do with someone who has made a serious personal vendetta of trying to harm this site.

I realize that Dr. Vronsky is capable of making his own decisions. I just thought he could use additional information. He can do what he wants to with it.

Again, I apologize to the many good people who had nothing to do with what happened last night and this morning.
Mr Gresham
(05/06/2002; 08:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75001)
Sierra, IGWA
IGWA: "Always looking on the bright side"

Now I'm gonna have Monty Python in my head all day (whistling included)

Sierra: Great post -- hope the cruise is as good. It's an amazing thought to imagine that an random meeting could spark an idea like that -- it's already so logical an arrival point for several Latin American countries -- but, with all the Harvard-trained (apologies to Reg & Vieira) lawyers running things, you never know what fiatic orifice they need to pull their heads out of...
Mr Gresham
(05/06/2002; 09:04:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75002)
Leigh
If you've been on other, unmoderated, forums, you know what a "troll" is. A troll is a poster whose intention is to disrupt the forum, ridicule other posters, and made the forum fail in its purpose of sharing information and opinions.

The amazing thing about this place is that (I don't think) we've ever had a troll around here. We've had ornery, argumentative opinionators, but I think there's even room for a couple, some have even been among our most helpful posters in elucidating ideas, and they have usually been willing to hear it when someone else says to them: Whoa, enough.

I missed lots of arguments (tend to skip over long posts that look like repetition) in days of yore, and most of them should have ended with "agreeing to disagree." If someone will not take that advice, then they are indeed tending "trollward".

In order to "watch this new gold market" together, it takes open, CIVIL, minds. I think any gold forum should be open to those who wish to abide by that standard. (And limit their consumption to one Negra Modelo -- mea culpa -- while posting ;) ;) ;)
RobotGuy
(05/06/2002; 09:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75003)
Hey There!!
Today seems to be a very silent day all around. No gold bouncing, no real market activity, no new mayhems starting in the ME, all the robots are behaving here at work, I think I'll take the day off and go hiking. It's pleasantly warm here in southern Ontario, and the air smells of spring. (I don't live too close to any major metropolis)

Perhaps spike will come tearing out of the brushes and startle us all!

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.
YGM
(05/06/2002; 09:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75004)
Very Interesting 4 Page Article.....
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,235385-1,00.htmlInside Saddam's world...Very revealing views...
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(05/06/2002; 09:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75005)
Hedge Funds Riding Golden Stallion. . . .NEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.



Gold Market Brief (5/6/02) . . . Gold is off slightly to start the week after Friday's solid foray toward the $312 resistance mark. Trading was quiet overnight with tensions easing for the moment in the Middle East, the dollar holding its own, and holidays in both Europe and Japan thinning the ranks. Last week's Commitments of Traders report showed the net fund long rose to 46,067 contracts from 39,665 the prior week. If the past trend remains in place -- longs getting in for the medium to long term -- this nearly 20% increase might very well serve as fuel for the fire in the bull camp as the week progresses. IFR/Pegasus' Timothy Evans told Reuters, "The magnitude of the accumulation points to an eventual sell-off, but we don't want to sell until the funds have run out of ammunition. A price top remains a few weeks away." If the funds -- meaning of course "hedge funds" -- are indeed what's behind the Comex action then that eventual "sell-off" might not be as deep and treacherous as the bears might wish. Hedge funds have a tendency to get on a horse and ride it 'til it drops. Gold will likely be no exception. This could in turn trigger more short covering down the road -- an event that could very well blow the lid off the gold market.

MarkeTalk
(05/06/2002; 11:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75006)
Treasury reporting requirements for gold
Ever since news broke on April 23rd that the Treasury is introducing new dealer reporting requirements for gold I have been pondering the form and content that such regulations might take. See my post #74183 of that same date. I don't think for one moment that any of this is related to anti-terrorism but rather it is about gaining total financial control over our lives. Gold represents ultimate money and thus freedom from a collapsing paper money system. And the insiders in Washington know what is happening--notwithstanding assurances from Paul O'Neill last Friday on CNBC.

Now let us assume the Establishment's premise that gold is being used to finance terrorist activities against the US, then it makes sense for the Establishment to implement rules and regulations to track the purchase of said gold. It makes no sense to have dealers such as Centennial report only when a suspected terrorist sells back to us because the dastardly deed will have already been committed. Thus, I predict that all purchases from dealers will be subject to reporting requirements. The only question is: Will there be exceptions for small purchases. Logic says "yes" but when did logic ever convince government bureaucrats of anything?

The second item worth noting is possible investor reaction to the reporting requirements. In my memorandum entitled "How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation" (which is available from Centennial by e-mail) I pointed out that 1984 was the year when the IRS introduced dealer-reporting requirements when gold was sold back from the public. This new requirement caused gold investors to dump their Krugerrands and Maple Leafs en masse and to buy U.S. $20 gold pieces. The premiums on these coins took off like a skyrocket. In fact, I believe that the IRS requirements were a major factor behind the rare coin bull market which peaked a short five years later in 1989.

I firmly believe that the spectre of the new dealer- reporting requirements will cause gold investors to flock to the pre-1933 gold coins (both U.S. and European). We have already seen evidence of that trend here at Centennial over the last 12 days. And the premiums on U.S. coinage are rising, in some cases rather dramatically. I also believe that we will be shocked at how dramatic the increases will be. My advice remains the same as ever: Acquire gold at these cheap price levels but be sure to buy the right kind of gold (pre-1933 coins) for maximum privacy and protection. And now you can expect to receive an added bonus: extra profit due to the limited number of pre-1933 coins available. Don't wait until the crowd hears about this.

GC
Cavan Man
(05/06/2002; 11:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75007)
@Marke Talk
The dealer reporting requirement on Maples and Krands was meant to encourage sales of Eagles (new at that time). I can still sell up to 20 ounces of either (KR or M) without a report required. That is my understnading. Please correct me if I am in error

If you are required to tell a third party who your customers are, how does the third party really gain? Information for information's sake is worthless.
Old Yeller
(05/06/2002; 12:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75008)
The Enron 9
http://www.thenation.com/docPrint.mhtml?i=20020513&s=greider
Wonder where the Enron story went?

Calm before the storm,this legal tome sounds like quite an explosive document.Good discussion on the ramifactions of repealing the Glass-Steagel.
YGM
(05/06/2002; 12:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75009)
GATA .....E-Mail
Quiet enough for complete post here.....DERIVATIVES MAY BE THE REAL BOMB

By Thom Calandra
www.cbs.marketwatch.com
May 6, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Berkshire Hathaway's Buffett is
an insurance executive, so he's entitled to talk about risk from
nuclear bombs.

Why shouldn't he? Palestinian supporter Sultan Abul-Aynayn
not so long ago was quoted as saying, "If one hair on the head
of Yasser Arafat is harmed, the U.S. had better protect its
interests around the world. We are not like Osama bin Laden,
but we have our own style of response."

That's "a chilling warning," says James Dines, editor of
pro-gold The Dines Letter in California. "Should the safety of
all Americans depend on Ariel Sharon's decision whether or
not to kill Arafat?" Sharon was in Washington on Monday,
headed to the White House.

But Warren Buffett, the world's second richest person, also
talks about derivatives. He and his right-hand man rate
derivatives somewhere below sewage. As the head of a
large, multi-billion-dollar enterprise, Buffett and his partner,
Charles Munger, are qualified to talk about the use of
options, futures, lending, leverage and other practices
known commonly as "derivatives."

Buffett figures derivatives will mess up lots of companies.
Berkshire Hathaway's reinsurance unit, General Re, is
registering some losses as it closes the loop on derivatives
contracts. Munger was quoted this weekend, at the annual
Buffett-fest, as saying, "To say derivative accounting in
America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage."

That would make Dell Computer (DELL), in a $1 billion-plus
derivatives boo-boo, an insult to sewage.

That would make scores of companies that take
off-balance-sheet hits to earnings because of their
once-fancy artificial hedges, joint ventures and extreme
leverage -- an insult to sewage.

Those derivative tangles include, in a strange twist of
fate, a few hedged gold companies. The gold sector is
among the North American stock market's biggest gainers
this year.

John C. Doody, editor of the numbers-crunching Gold Stock
Analyst newsletter, figures Barrick Gold in its latest reported
quarter saw the mark-to-market value of its so-called hedge
book drop to a negative $121 million as of March 31 from a
positive $380 million on June 30, 2001.

Barrick, one of the world's largest bullion miners, uses
written "call" option contracts and other derivative devices
and gold lending practices to enhance the price it gets for
its ounces of gold. The so-called hedging in the
"spot-deferred market" works well when gold is flat or down
in price, not so well when gold prices are rising, as they are
now.

Doody at Gold Stock Analyst puts the negative swing of the
company's hedge book at $507 million. "This swing far
offsets the net profits earned of $46 mil in the first quarter of
2002 plus the $66 million in the third quarter of 2001 plus the
$82 million in the fourth quarter of 2001. The net is a loss of
$313 million."

In a conference call last week, Barrick's executives assured
questioning Wall Street analysts, who asked numerous
questions about the company's gold-hedging, they were
monitoring the situation. Yet some observers are not
convinced.

"The sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at
about $21 an ounce," says Douglas Pollitt at Pollitt & Co.
in Toronto. "Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold
price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative
contracts) drop by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce,
the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."

Gold prices this year have risen to $312 an ounce from
$270 at the start of January.

Pollitt calculates the notional value of Barrick's
spot-deferred contracts at 18 million ounces. "Add to this
another 5 million in written call options, (which the company
now calls 'variable priced sales contracts'), and, one way
or another, the company is short about 23 million ounces
of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question:
Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"

CBS MarketWatch placed a call to Barrick's Toronto
headquarters on Monday regarding the company's
exposure to the hedged market and was awaiting a
response.

The writer of a call option is giving the purchaser of that
contract the right to buy something, in this case gold, at
a strike price written in the contract. In exchange, the writer
of the option receives a little money, a premium. The
strategy for selling a call option is usually to enhance the
value of a security or a commodity when the investment is
declining in price, something that had been happening to
gold for years, until January.

Barrick, to its credit, said in its report to investors that
it will reduce exposure to hedging this year. The Toronto
company, world's second largest gold producer after
Newmont Mining, says it earned $46 million for the March
quarter, down from $87 million in the year-ago three-month
period.

Barrick, according to its quarterly report, sold half its gold
in the spot-deferred market for $365 an ounce. The fact that
it sold the other half in the spot market was a first for the
company. Barrick stated it expects half its gold for the
remainder of the year to be sold in the spot market, where
an ounce of gold is attached to no derivatives and gets
exactly what the spot market is dictating for bullion.

Barrick also estimates that for every $25 increase in the
gold price, the company's annual earnings and cash flow
rise by approximately $70 million. "In total, 22 percent of
reserves, or 18 million ounces, are sold forward using
spot-deferred contracts at an average minimum price of
$344 per ounce, deliverable at the company's option
over the next 15 years," the company stated to investors.
"This position is down from 18.2 million ounces in the last
quarter of 2001 at an average price of $365 an ounce."

Of course, if gold prices were to shoot far higher, in rapid
fashion, Barrick, as a writer of call options, could find itself
required to deliver gold to buyers at prices that are below
the spot price of gold. Other distortions of the gold market
are possible in a gold rally.

Pollitt, the Toronto analyst, says theory and reality are like
night and day. "Converting dollars into gold is quite different
than converting gold into dollars," he said Monday morning.
"When the dreaded yellow metal was in the doldrums and
nobody cared, well, Barrick might have had a way out. But
now? Now you've got good company on the bid, now
you've got all those dollars chasing what little gold is left.
And any whiff that Barrick had stepped into the ring looking
for 23 million ounces would set the market ablaze."

Large gold producer Anglogold in South Africa this year
said it would continue to reduce its reliance on the
forward-sale, or hedging, of its gold production.
Non-hedged gold miners, led by Gold Fields of South
Africa, have seen their stocks outpace the gains of hedgers
Barrick and Anglogold by wide margins this year. Gold
Fields, its shares poised to shift to the New York Stock
Exchange on Thursday, is up almost 175 percent this
year vs. a 30 percent stock price gain for Barrick and
60 percent for Anglogold.

The use of derivatives in many different forms has
supporters, lukewarm and otherwise. Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan in February testimony said
derivatives have "contributed to the development of a
far more flexible and efficient financial system."

Greenspan was not referring to any particular industry,
like waste management. Those sewers are best left to
derivative accountants, Buffett and Munger would say.

-END-
YGM
(05/06/2002; 12:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75010)
Barrick the next Enron?...........Go Gold>>>>>>
Staggering Numbers........"The sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at
about $21 an ounce," says Douglas Pollitt at Pollitt & Co.
in Toronto. "Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold
price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative
contracts) drop by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce,
the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."
YGM
(05/06/2002; 12:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75011)
Gold vs Silver
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville050602.htmlArticle by Steve Saville......
YGM
(05/06/2002; 12:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75012)
Barrick soon to be caught in a "Short Squeeze"
What Justice It Would BE!Quote....

Pollitt, the Toronto analyst, says theory and reality are like
night and day. "Converting dollars into gold is quite different
than converting gold into dollars," he said Monday morning.
"When the dreaded yellow metal was in the doldrums and
nobody cared, well, Barrick might have had a way out. But
now? Now you've got good company on the bid, now
you've got all those dollars chasing what little gold is left.
And any whiff that Barrick had stepped into the ring looking
for 23 million ounces would set the market ablaze."



****ABX buying in a squeeze and contributing to their own demise. Only one thing regretable.....Sheeple shareholders left with the empty bag.....Talk about food for a future "Class Action Lawsuit".....The days just keep getting more Interesting!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(05/06/2002; 13:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75013)
NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted 1800's). For bullion and other selections, please call us!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

MS61 Graded Liberties

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be...

...Priceless.

Call Centennial for Arrangements or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115

Old Yeller
(05/06/2002; 14:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75014)
"If there is a bank run,you want to be there first"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020505/bonds_psychology_1.html
Interesting look at the nagging doubts piling up on the bond investor's psychology.

"There is a rising group consciousness that is leaving even some bond investors immobilized,because they don't know what information they can trust and what they are going to do next.It has gone beyond simply worry."

Is the next stop the Treasury bond market?

That statement could apply equally well to the Fed,the Treasury and the BLS.
Goldfly
(05/06/2002; 14:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75015)
Well, here at least is something different.......
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=0
Gold is spiking up early overseas....
Gandalf the White
(05/06/2002; 14:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75016)
WELCOME, SPIKE !!!
JUMP, SPOT !!!
JUMP
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(05/06/2002; 14:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75017)
Nice to see you and SPIKE again, Goldfly !!
Ari is now back and I am awaiting the return of Aragorn III.
Just had a roll of THUNDER here -- first that it has happened for quite a while !!!
Aragorn's "LIGHTING" should follow soon.
<;-)
The Hoople
(05/06/2002; 14:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75018)
Gandalf the White
Spike's been eating steroid-laced Kibbles n' Bits. He's on his way to Toronto to hike his leg on the ABX schrubs. They probably will die.
RobotGuy
(05/06/2002; 14:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75019)
Interesting After Hours Activity
I've noticed before the little bit of activity with POG, but usually it dips down momentarily and then back to it's current level. Whose market does this area cover? COMEX closes around 2:00pm eastern usually.
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 14:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75020)
Wall Street Workers Face Worst Market In 40 Years
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNYsZRVoV2FsbCBT
Snippit:

Securities firms have cut 40,000 jobs in the past year, forcing many traders, bankers and analysts into unemployment in the worst Wall Street job market in 25 years. With few job prospects, some are struggling to stir up fresh leads, while others, lucky to have severance pay or low living expenses, are pursuing long-ignored dreams and passions.

``The music has completely stopped in some parts of the industry,'' said Larry Post, founder and chief executive of Streetjobs.com, a Web site for trading, banking and other security firm positions. ``Wall Street over-hires and over-fires. Right now, we're in over-fire mode.'' Of the 40,000 lost jobs -- the most since Richard Nixon was president, according to the U.S. Department of Labor -- 20,400 were in New York City. Across the nation, unemployment last month climbed to 6 percent, the highest since August 1994.


Black Blade: The Wall Street "Bone Pile" will grow as new investigations and law suits are about to commence with revelations that securities analysts were compensated for bringing in corporate business in a clear conflict of investors interests. Look for $Billions in lawsuit judgements and possible legal action by the SEC. These revelations have had a profound effect on Wall Street today with the DOW down nearly 200 pts., NASDAQ down nearly 35 pts., and the S&P 500 down over 20 points. It should drop much more as the market indices remain grossly over-valued.

Also, Winn-Dixie announces that it will contribute 5,300 to the growing "Bone Pile".
jayzee
(05/06/2002; 15:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75021)
Dow loses after PM market closes
I have noticed that on down days for the Dow, the PPT keeps the loss small until the PM market closes, then it lets it freefall!

I believe that they are trying to prevent investors from going from stocks to precious metals in a panic.
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 15:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75022)
Lower USD, Higher Gold, and Wall Street


The USD should continue to drop overnight as the foreign investor is not interested in USD denominated investments anymore. The recent market action, lack of corporate earnings and the prospect of FED inaction tomorrow may mean that dollars will leave US shores. Also, Moody's has announced that any legal action against Wall Street firms and bankers "will" result in credit rating downgrades. This is not a pretty picture for Wall Street. The result is that investors just might seek out safe havens � like Gold � until all this blows over. IMO it cannot "blow over" until all the excesses are squeezed out of the markets. Hold on to your pants because it's going to get mighty rough!

- Black Blade
TownCrier
(05/06/2002; 15:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75023)
Another end-of-day snapshot...very similar to that provided last Monday
http://www.usagold.com/mkpics/forum/ino06may02.gifstocks down
bonds down
dollar down
commodity index down

gold UP

Two Monday's in a row.

Contrary to popular belief, gold is not *necessarily* tightly correlated -- positively or negatively -- with the various markets in stocks, dollars, or commodities as a group. Thanks to the particulars of its market's means for price discovery, gold has tremendous potential for independent movement upward regardless of all other market performance -- assuming the physical trade succeeds in shattering the prevailing paper illusion. A "one-time adjustment" is called for. Without it, gold remains a very safe and stable insurance policy. With it, gold becomes the investment permormer of a lifetime. You can't really lose, whatever the outcome. So, the question goes, are you in?

R.
Graefin
(05/06/2002; 16:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75024)
Riding the Golden Bull
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?PfvID=2179Hey guys...ah, girls too...the hubby found an excellent read...deals with the current gold market and recent market history. Here are some snips:
By Derek K. Van Artsdalen

Snippet 1: "The question got me thinking, though, about what we gold and silver bugs might expect when the next true gold bull market begins. How high is high? For that matter, how do we know for certain when the bull's run has actually begun? And, finally, what signs do we look for to clue us in on when the bull has ultimately run its course?"

Snippet 2: "Of Tulips and Technology

To begin with, how do we know when a gold bull market has actually started? In answering that question, it's important to make a crucial point and one which all precious metals investors should understand clearly: bull markets always begin for a reason (or, more likely, for several reasons). In other words, a commodity doesn't increase drastically in price just because it appears to be undervalued. Or because it holds sentimental value (think of the poor fellow who purchased gold at $400 per ounce in the late �80s or early �90s, only to watch it languish for the next decade or more!). And it certainly doesn't rise just because it appears inexpensive relative to its chart history.

No, my friends, gold will never rise merely because a group of diehard investors wants it to rise. It will rise in value, as all other commodities from T-Bills to tulips, from pork bellies to belly dancers, from bonds to Buicks, for one reason and one reason alone: perceived demand begins to exceed perceived supply. Until that happens, expect the price of gold to remain relatively stable and range-bound.

Why do I use the word "perceived"? Because it is the average investor's perception that motivates him to invest (or dis-invest). When the Dutch tulip mania was unfolding, there was never an actual shortage of tulips -- only a perceived shortage. The average investor, not understanding the situation, concluded that there just weren't enough doggoned tulips in the world, and he began paying outrageous sums of money for them. As with all manias, reality ultimately asserted itself and proved, after all, that tulips were in quite plentiful supply relative to actual demand, and the price came plummeting back to levels which few investors imagined they would ever again witness only weeks prior to the inevitable crash. (The old saying is that trees don't grow to the sky. Evidently, this is equally true for tulips.)

We need look back no farther than 1999 and early 2000 to see a modern example of a classic mania: the now-infamous NASDAQ "bubble." Here was a situation where the perceived need far exceeded the perceived supply. To use just one example, investors (be honest now: were you one of them!?) were crawling over each other to buy up all the telecom and fiber optic companies they could identify, because everyone "knew" that there just wasn't enough fiber in the ground. We all know now, of course, that the actual supply/demand fundamentals were a far different story. But we didn't realize how overbought this and other tech sectors had become (unless we were members of LeMetropoleCafe!) until hundreds of billions of investor dollars had been squandered forever on various telecom, biotech and other technology-related "investments."

So what do the prices of tulips and tech stocks have to do with the present-day gold situation? Just this: as the GATA camp has been shouting from the treetops for years now, the artificial price manipulations of the gold and silver markets have given investors the perception that gold and silver supplies far exceed gold and silver demand � the exact reverse of the situation which develops in a mania. The reality is, both gold and silver usage are increasing annually while supplies are actually declining! "Holy Conspiracy, Batman! The Joker is secretly confiscating their wealth while the citizens of Gotham dance in the streets!" And before you know it, investors around the world, believing they were investing in a legitimate free market, were WHAMMed, BAMMed and KA-POWed out of their hard-earned dollars, rubles, pesos, francs and rupees."

Snippet 3: "Which leads me back to my original point: what are the characteristics of an emerging � and a dying � bull market in gold, and how do we make a buck or two from the historical lessons?

First, if we look back at the most famous gold bull in modern history from August 1979 to September 1980, we find that its foundation was being laid far earlier, beginning about mid-1977. To re-emphasize, bull markets happen for specific reasons, and the reasons back then were legion: economic imbalances, high unemployment, high interest rates, large trade deficits, etc. Other than the high interest rates, do any of these things ring a bell today?"

Okay...enough snips...go click on the link and enjoy your read!
Peace!
- Gr�fin



Siochain
(05/06/2002; 16:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75025)
Lots of Gold Shorts
From the Daily Reckoning:
(Partial_
"- But even though things are looking a little rough for
the economy at the moment, a short-term stock market
rally would not be a total surprise. That's because many
of the short-term sentiment indicators like the "Bullish
Consensus" and the "MarketVane" are registering fairly
extreme bearish readings, which, from a contrarian
standpoint, is bullish.

- The opposite phenomenon is occurring in the gold
market. Suddenly, everyone seems to be bullish on gold.
That's quite a change for the "yellow dog." Over the
course of two superb decades for stocks, most investors
learned to hate gold, or at least to ignore it. But now
that stocks are flirting with three straight losing
years in a row - for the first time since the Great
Depression - gold doesn't seem so repugnant anymore. In
fact, it is becoming dangerously close to being popular!

- Most of the short-term sentiment indicators on gold
are very bullish, which therefore is bearish.
Furthermore, the commercial traders (considered the
"smart money"), tracked by the weekly commitment of
traders report, have amassed their largest short
position in gold in more than six years.

- Such extreme Commitment of Traders readings are
certainly not foolproof indicators of market direction,
but they do suggest that the metal is close to a near-
term top. As for the long-term, who knows? But gold
probably deserves the benefit of the doubt, given the
precarious state of the U.S. dollar.

- The U.S. current account deficit is running close to
5% of GDP. In other words, we borrow more than $1
billion a day from foreigners just to keep the lights
turned on at America, Inc.

- This massive current account deficit will not be a
problem, the experts assure us, so long as foreigners
continue to invest in the U.S. But the dollars' recent
weakness suggests that some foreigners, at least, are
withdrawing from the U.S. already.

- "The most interesting development of late in global
markets has not been the renewed weakness on Wall Street
but the wobbles in the U.S. dollar," says Christopher
Wood of breakingviews.com. "The intellectual rationale
for pouring money into America in recent years, namely
superior investment returns, has now been proven false
given that this is the third year running that the U.S.
stock market has so far failed to deliver positive
returns."

- Wood continues: "The Economist proclaims in its latest
issue that the American current account deficit is 'an
accident waiting to happen.' This may not be a
particularly original statement. But, however seemingly
banal, it happens to be true..."

*** While nearly everyone waits for the resumption of
the bull market in stocks, most people expect the rally
in gold to end any minute. "Equities always reward
patient, long-term investors," say Rukeyser's elves and
other mythmakers. "Gold, on the other hand, always
disappoints," they say. Gold timers were 90% bullish in
February. But now that the metal is $10 higher, only
37.5% of their money is in gold; the rest of it is in
cash.

*** "This is a textbook case of what is often seen at
the beginning of sustainable rallies," explains my old
friend, Mark Hulbert. "As contrarians constantly remind
us, bull markets don't like company; they thrive when
relatively few advisers and investors have jumped on
their bandwagon. This is why contrarians were not
particularly surprised that gold's rally stalled in mid-
February...Today, in contrast, gold at $310 per ounce
has fewer cheerleaders than it did three months ago when
gold was trading at a lower price."

*** Gold up...dollar down. You might want to get used to
the sound of that...it might be in the news for a long
time. Last week, the dollar had its "biggest drop since
January," according to the Bloomberg report. Since the
end of March, the greenback index is down 4.3%. Friday's
trading left the euro up 142 points - to 91.52 cents.
The smart money is leaving the dollar and moving to
gold.:

Graefin
(05/06/2002; 16:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75026)
hmmmmm...gold shorts...
I wonder if they would go well with my turquoise socks!
Solomon Weaver
(05/06/2002; 16:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75027)
50 day moving average of Gold spot hit $300 today
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d12*
Siochain
(05/06/2002; 16:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75028)
Give up your gold (No Way!!)
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/kaplan05_06_02.htmlInteresting....another wants you to turn your gold in....for your best interests, of course!!!!

"As the stock markets continues its ominous declines (The S&P's made 6 month lows last week), as the USD continues its precipitous decline (the Euro made a 7 month high on Friday), the gold market is seeing investor interest ramp up to levels not seen in 20 years. While the tragic events of September 11th, and other terrorist actions, have prompted the purchase of gold by those seeking a "safe haven" in a increasingly frightening world, those levels of demand are nowhere near the quantity nor the consistency of interest presently seen. The purchases of gold due to sudden fears by the market tend to be fleeting in nature, but such demand, when fueled by economic reversals is of much greater consequence.

There has also a "sea change" in the nature of such investment demand. Previously, buyers of gold participated in the "physical" markets, buying bars or coins. Now, recent buyers of gold are demanding "paper" gold through the derivatives, futures, or options markets. They want the leverage and the safety and security of dealing in a completely regulated environment. This trend can be summarily proven by looking at the volume of business recorded by the LBMA vs. that which occurs on the regulated futures markets in New York. Trading volumes in London, the largest "physical" gold market in the world, continue to post lower results, while open interest in New York continues to rise to recent record levels.

We are also seeing that the old-time investors in gold are actually selling into this rally, and not much physical buying is occurring. When investor interest in physical gold is high, premiums on gold coins rise. Even as gold continues to make 2-year highs, premiums on gold coins such as US Eagles remain quite low and well below replacement costs at the US Mint. Perhaps even a better example is the sad case of US $20 Liberty Head gold coins in XF/AU condition (slightly circulated). These numismatic coins, which were minted from the 1850's to 1907 (now almost at least 100 years old), are trading in the market for just $15 to $25 USD (each coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold) above their precious metal melt content, probably as low a premium as has been seen since the 1970's. This fact would certainly infer that "old-time" investors are selling as new investors are buying. But the new investors are seeking investment venues with greater transparency, greater leverage, and greater security, and are shunning the old investment vehicles such as coins.

I would expect that this trend will continue, to the financial detriment of those owners of physical gold coins and bars. I urge readers of this commentary, who hold physical coins, to call our offices (afternoons are best) for a discussion of possible strategies to avoid further losses. Historically, on many sharp gold rallies, such coins have traded at or below spot, and if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. "

Siochain...If holding real gold is such a "bad investment"...wonder why they want to take it off your hands...hmmmmn

Now our cry must be to not only get gold...but hold it...tightly!!!

Siochain
(05/06/2002; 17:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75029)
@ Robot Guy
I thought someone had mentioned that these late blips were related to trading still open in Mexico...not sure but a possibility
R Powell
(05/06/2002; 17:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75030)
Gold and silver trading
Thebulliondesk site has gold up 1.90 and silver up .03.
I've heard that gold starts trading again at 4:00 EST after the stocks close and a few hours after Comex close. Where this happens is a mystery unless it's electronic trading?? I believe downunder trading starts at 6:00 EST and Hong Kong starts at 9:00. Anyone know for sure?
Rich
Graefin
(05/06/2002; 17:21:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75031)
R Powell
DownUnder should start at 6pmEST, dunno about Hong Kong.
- Gr�fin
Siochain
(05/06/2002; 17:36:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75032)
GATA...LIPS...And GOLD
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=198811&cftoken=78787506πd=2193Part:
"Ferdi Lips Spotted The Gold Rig That Is Coming To An End Six Years Ago

With both London and Japan closed, the gold trading was very subdued in the U.S.

The Comex open interest continues to explode as it rose 4,958 contracts to 189,735 contracts on Friday. The bullion dealers, or uniformed gold commentators, will say that is bearish as the specs keep piling in. I say the opposite. We are coming closer and closer to that commercial signal failure. That is when the commercials are buried by the specs and it gives force to the grandest commodity moves of all. That was the case in 1993 when gold exploded higher and in late 1996/1997 when gold collapsed.

Another bullish gold technical indicator from a Caf� member:

Bill:
Again, two very reliable indicators, the put-call ratios in both the gold futures and the XAU continue to be unbelievably subdued. I think that on only one day last week did the XAU have more calls than puts. At trading tops you can look for ratios of around 10:1. The Hulbert article is also most revealing. Chuck C

From http://www.business.scotsman.com:

By Ian Williams

THE price of gold rose last week to $309 an ounce - and at one point was $312, its highest for two years, a period during which the FTSE gold mines index gained 55%.

This highlights the counter-cyclical nature of gold relative to bonds and equities. A multitude of factors - technical, fundamental and cyclical - are responsible. But one thing seems certain: the price can go considerably higher, outperforming even the previous peak of $850 an ounce in January 1980.

Analysis points to a multi-year bull market developing for both gold and gold stocks, supported by such diverse factors as a 900% increase in Japanese gold imports this year, China's desire to increase the percentage of its reserves held in gold and changes in forward selling by major gold-mining companies.

China's central bank is the most interesting example. China has foreign exchange reserves of $700bn, of which about 2% is in gold. Last year, the Chinese declared their intention to increase this to between 10% and 15% of total reserves but were "persuaded" by the Americans to keep their reserves in dollars and treasury bills in return for American support for China's application to join the World Trade Organisation. Now that China is a member, it can change its reserve mix to whatever it wants.

Siochain...that last paragraph is interesting,,,wouldn't you say....the rest of the article gives a good summary of what has been going on behind the scenes and GATA's learning & leading
Pizz
(05/06/2002; 17:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75033)
Markets
Anyone else getting the feeling that SOMETHING is just not quite right.

Technically gold is right up against a trendline. A couple gold stock I follow are right at new high's or slightly below, and the SM sold off last hour and aftermarket gold moving up befor Sidney. Feels like a breakup for gold and down for markets.


Now, FED meets tomorrow, after a week+ of crashing dollar and the quarterly refunding later this week.

I'm just trying to figure who's going to come to the auction at these prices with what appears to be a growing perception that capital may be starting to move away from US.

I can think of two reasons why Greenspan might be strongly considering raising rates tomorrow. (1)It'll drop treasuries and therefore give a bit of a boost to the treasury bill auction, and (2)has anyone figured out who the PTB is going to blame for the recovery that never was?? Raising interest rates would sufffice as the macro economic numbers continue to deteriorate. Some reason is going to have to be given sooner or later. Maybe Greenie will walk the plank for the admin on this one. Or maybe (if rates do go up) he'll just blame all the positive govmt stats.

Just musing, but again, something doesn't feel quite right.

Siochain: Thanks for the Kaplan laugh. Any of his customers stupid enough to by that line of BS should sell.
Physical may jst be getting a bit harder to find (smile).

Pizz
nickel62
(05/06/2002; 17:49:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75034)
Kaplan, I couldn't believe that post????????
Is that the same guy who gets qouted on Kitco all the time? A little help here I have heard the name but never knew who he was. Thanks before hand.
MarkeTalk
(05/06/2002; 18:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75035)
Cavan Man, IRS reporting rules on K-rands & Maple Leafs
I have read your post in response to my post, as you invited me to comment. I have to disagree with your analysis concerning the reason why the Treasury Department introduced dealer-reporting requirements in 1984. Firstly, the IRS missed out on billions of tax dollars after a spectacular run in gold and silver to heights never seen before. Investors cleaned up in the bullion market and many did not pay any taxes at all. Secondly, these new rules were drafted and timed to go into effect as the gold market was surging again towards $500 from its lows of $282 in August 1982. Spot gold hit $500 on a couple of occasions between 1983 and 1987, the last being in December 1987. Go back and check the charts. I know this information like the back of my hand because I was working for another precious metals company at the time. Every swing up and down would invite investors to sell back to dealers and the investors would pocket the profits. But with new dealer-reporting requirements in place, there was no way to escape the tax man.

Thirdly, the new US Eagle gold coin was not introduced until 1986, two years after the 1984 rules went into effect. It can be argued that one of the reasons for the new US Eagle was to tap into the growing interest in gold coins and to take profits away from Canada and South Africa. But why did the IRS fail to place the US Eagle on the list of reportable transactions by dealers? Could it be the same reason why the IRS failed to place the Austrian Philharmonic, Chinese Panda and Australian Nugget/Kangaroo on the same list? I believe so and that the reason was inertia on the part of the IRS. In other words, the IRS simply overlooked these others coins. But with the new proposed regulations due out in the next 60 to 90 days, I believe those "loopholes" will be a thing of the past.

As far as your comment goes regarding the sale of 20 Maple Leaf gold coins without any dealer reporting, that is true unless you sell back 20 coins every week or every month in an attempt to circumvent the intent of the law. The IRS advised all of the dealers many years ago and warned us against so-called "structured transactions" which evade the strict reading of the law but not its intent. In fact, I received a phone call recently from a client who had done business with a competitor who was the object of a government sting operation. Government agents set up cash purchases of less than $10,000 each time (in compliance with a strict reading of the law) but they visited the gold dealer several times over the course of six months. The coin dealer failed to fill out the required currency transaction reports (for cash deals over $10,000) and he was found to be in violation of the IRS regulation. The feds seized all of his inventory and bank account and he was out of business left to fend for himself on the street corner. This is one of the reasons why Centennial made the decision many years ago to avoid cash deals altogether.

GC
mikal
(05/06/2002; 18:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75036)
@Pizz
Those ARE two very good reasons why the FED may raise interest rates tomorrow or at ANY time they see the need. Imagine what would happen to the dollar. If higher rates undermine foreign and domestic confidence in low inflation or quick recovery. If corporate cash flow, earnings, & profits suffer from higher debt payments. If stock prices and credit ratings suffer. If consumer and corporate borrowing and spending suffers.
R Powell
(05/06/2002; 18:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75037)
Pizz
That "feeling that something is not quite right" must be contagious but with me it refers to silver. I sense weakness and hope silver's good friend gold can help by setting the pace. Gold seems to have great support. David Morgan recently said that silver's upside moves seem supported by silver as a monetary metal while the downside moves appear as silver trading as an industrial metal.
If POG can lend some support now, I believe silver will return the favor later.

Perhaps soon the Greenman will face that awful decision of having to raise rates to save the dollar knowing that this may tank the debt ridden economy. Or, will he leave the dollar to sink or swim without intervention (rate hikes) protecting the equities?
Does POG care either way? Probably not, it's either up or up at a faster pace. Close your eyes now and repeat three times, "Silver is money too! Silver is money too! Silver is money too!"
Rich
mikal
(05/06/2002; 18:40:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75038)
@Pizz
Re: Your reason #2 for hiking Fed Funds Rate. It seems we will get a repeat of 1929 and 1932 where blame was diverted, like the majority do today. They still haven't learned either. So, what reason will we get for the nasty downturn, besides 9-11? Greenspan? Bush? I hope Christian's terrorist suggestion was wrong. I wish it were a UFO announcement or a Second Coming, but I don't think so. Then what will it be? There is only one way to find out. ; ) CALL To Contest!
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 19:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75039)
Argentina inflation soars
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1970000/1970198.stm
Argentine prices have risen 20% so far this year following the devaluation of the country's currency the peso, officials have said.

Snippit:

The prices of fresh eggs and vegetable oils, as well as the prices of computers and televisions, have risen between 100% and 200%, according to a survey by the Argentine business chamber CAME. The sharpest price increases were seen in April, raising fears that there could be worse to come. "On Monday the official inflation rate [for April] will be announced, and it will be around 10% [for that month alone]," said cabinet chief Alfredo Atanasof in interviews on Sunday.


Black Blade: Argentina has seen several "food riots". This "Soylent Green" scenario will play out over and over. "Interesting Times"


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/06/2002; 19:10:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75040)
Mikal
www.talia.ch/works.htmlIf the FED raises interest rates it's a notice to the world that they don't care about the "recovery". They have to keep interest rates low and let the dollar come down slowly. To throw out whatever recovery is happening by raising rates would damage the "We're OK and you're going to be OK" image. Perception becomes reality when there are more variables than constants in the equation. They have to decide who they don't mind stealing from more........the foreignors holding bonds who can't vote or the general population that needs its jobs. Americans would rather have a weak dollar than no dollar at all. Bring on inflation, half the people you talk to all think a little inflation is good. It's the pain tolerance level of the foreign bond holders that the FED will test. When the Sheiks and the Kings of the East (Asia) start complaining then the FED will raise rates and not until.

The geldshares are getting tight. For every seller there are 1.3 buyers and the shorts are going to be panicing every morning. They are trying hard to knock them down but there are a million "snapper blues" nipping at the bait. No matter what we do, there is more bad news coming out keeping fear alive and well. What is blowing people's minds is the way the POG won't fall back. Their shorting efforts are like throwing water on a dry sponge. One of the "true barometer issues" CEF is running up and all it has is metal in its vault. So we see more lemmings would rather trust those accountants than own the metal themselves. Some day "point click buy is going to turn into, point click "How come I can't access my broker" Oh yes, it's because they make you broker. So I'm saying that symbol is a good overlay to the POG to test for bullish sentiment. The divergence would show that one is going to catch up to the other. The point at which money runs hard into the metal vs the shares is still in flux. No one has to buy the shares it's just too easy. I'm sure glad the mining executives are so much more noble and honest than the folks at Enron. It's amazing how all the saints decided the run goldmining companies. Yeah I'm OK and you're OK. (So far today. If you aren't on the lookout for large block order sales and sly dilution attempts, then yer a sleepin too much and awake not enough.

I took the "Land-O-Lakes" butter label to my scanner and for my wallpaper I've got the little indian maiden holding out her bar of gold. A tribute to all the Tokyo-mamas buying gold up making it all happen.
----------------------------------------------------------
When you need peace and quiet just watch the bird. Found it on a recient web expedition.
sector
(05/06/2002; 19:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75041)
FOMC Rate Increase?
@piz...It's not in the cards kind Sir.Why?

For each 1% increase in Fed Funds there is a 35% increase in US corporate interest costs.

To suffer an interest rate hike just now would surely smash the SM. Corporate leaders are desperate for any bottom line juice, never mind the widespread accusations of fraudulent accounting with which they now must constantly deal.

No, Mr. "Can't Make a Decision" Greenspan will default to his dominant personality trait...ignoring the approaching freight train.

The gold fraud cabal faces, as GATA's Bill Murphy says, a new adversary. A foe of unknown strength and unmeasured tenacity�an enemy that has special intelligence regarding the plans and backing of the Fed and Treasury�An enemy that has organized and is lean for a protracted fight. This isn't some rogue hedge fund or eccentric billionaire or some trendy boutique group. These people are hardened, fearless shock troups that know the Fed's gold defenses are as vulnerable as the Maginot Line. They are determined.

Even if the Fed raises interest rates soon, and the dollar stops swooning, it won't matter to this new Fed enemy because they understand the physical mechanics of the years-long gold suppression and have moved to exploit the Fed weakness. The dollar isn't the gold-link it used to be. "It's the physical...stupid" is their silent war cry. The Fed has sold all it can sell comfortably. The Fed acolytes are on the financial ropes with their gold derivatives [JPM, CitiBank have dumped tens of billions in gold derivatives of late and they still have many tens of billions to go].

The mighty Fed...in a fight for its life.

Make no mistake. If they fail to cap gold in the coming months they fail as an institution. For as surely as the Enron, JPM and Mahonia offshore scandals followed the Moody's downgrade of Enron, there will be a gold scandal. It will be necessary to explain $400 [Much higher likely] plus gold prices. The stories will emanate from the NON-financial press. A flood of questions will follow.

The perpetrator will be revealed to be the Federal Reserve. They sold our gold to create bubbles. They roped into the scam the British in too. The Germans will roll as Deutsche Bank coughs up its golden hairball as well.

At the end, the Fed will be "�lying in a burned-out-basement�" as Neill Young so aptly said in� "After the Gold Rush.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/06/2002; 19:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75042)
(No Subject)
http://www.talia.ch/works.htmlHere it is.
mikal
(05/06/2002; 19:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75043)
@Siochain
WELCOME Back Lady.
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 19:56:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75044)
After Hours

There is a bit of interesting action perking up in after hours trading. Notice that Gold is up about $2.00/oz. and the USD Index is in retreat again (soon below 112?). After such a dismal day in NY, it is no wonder that foriegn investors are ready to bail.

- Black Blade
mikal
(05/06/2002; 20:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75045)
@GR2- Nice dove art
"A dove got caught in the rafters last night. I had quite a time trying to get her out. She hit her head several times in panic. Only when she was stunned was I able to care for her.... in this world, the pursuit of love and compassion is not without pain and confusion." -Deng Ming-Dao, 365 TAO
Cavan Man
(05/06/2002; 20:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75046)
sector
Who is this new adversary? Sorry to say I am not a cafe member.
slingshot
(05/06/2002; 20:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75047)
Gold $313.30
******************************Car 54 Where are you?

Wake up Joe, (Joe Sixpack) Their calling us.

Slingshot----------------------<>
da2g
(05/06/2002; 20:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75048)
Cavan Man- Belated Easter Greetings
Christos Voskres!

Sorry I missed your greeting yesterday.
Pizz
(05/06/2002; 20:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75049)
@sector - more musings on a rate hike
Appreciate your response and I agree with your statements.

My concern is more abstract (for lack of a better term due to my limited diction) and more directed towards the $ and our debt - a much bigger problem than gold derivitives, which are, IMHO, still a major problem.

The dollar drop has the potential to take Japan down for the count, banks first. Japan hasn't much incentive to keep holding our debt, dollar or bonds. Major problem. If our bonds drop, the housing market starts to implode with higher long term rates. If the dollar continues to drop, inflation goes up with the same effect.

A quarter point rise firms up the dollar and debt. It also will nearly completely remove the limited inflation fears and have very little efect on long term rates. It would also, IMO, send gold back down to the bottom end of the trading range (295 - 300).

Slam corporate American and the Stock Market. You bet, but their going down anyway. Why not get some mileage out of it? Most analyst I'm listening to are looking for the washout of the markets before they start committing new funds.

Corporate earnings are already going down, and O'Neil's already basically said "tough".

Greenspan is also into tweeking. We're too close to November elections to have any type of dollar crisis get worse. Democrats will want tax relief repealed or raise taxes, Bush & O'Neil won't go that route.

Proverbial "Catch 22".

Odds say your right on the "do nothing" senario, but I also hedge against the "blindsides". Greenie cost me a bunch once in my trading days and if anything, he has his own agenda and he happens to be O'Neils spear-chucker.

Interesting times and thanks again for the feedback.

Pizz

Cavan Man
(05/06/2002; 20:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75050)
da2g
Alithos aneste!
Pizz
(05/06/2002; 20:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75051)
Black Blade
Would it be too much to ask if you have any experience or recomendations on some of the solar battery chargers, radios, flashlights, and lanterns available?

Not too many manufactures that I can find on the net, and the prices just don't seem to be high enough for me to be comfortable that I'm not buying junk - stange way to look at it (and if I ever do get ripped ordering on the net, it will probably be a doozy), but competition in that market seem a bit slim.

(Thanks also for all the energy posts. I don't have the time to be as informed as you make me, and it is appreciated.)

Pizz
YGM
(05/06/2002; 20:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75052)
New Use For GOLD & SILVER......
http://www.standardbank.com/PreciousMetals/home.asp?lid=1&sgid=3Japans Sumitomo Metal Mining Develops Special Conductive Film..May 2/02.........

Scroll @ Link......Conductive film for Cathode Raytube CRT Monitors using Silver & Gold......

**Excuse me if someone already posted this. I just found it surfing around Bank news sites.....YGM.


BTW...Anglo-American getting into Copper??? Didn't read this piece yet...
Pizz
(05/06/2002; 20:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75053)
R Powell - Silver Sinking?
Hang in there buddy. You've got the leveraged play of the decade, assuming we're right on gold. It will just take a bit longer.

Every time you get nervous about silver, just imagine gold at a paultry 1500 to 3000 bucks an ounce and the banks in deep ______. Is gold going to be money? No - wealth. It will be too expensive to buy or trade by the masses.

If (When?) TSHTF, and I think it's going to, silver will be the alternative medium of the masses, in the hundreds of dollars an ounce with a lot of junk silver and old coins for trading and small purchases if it comes to that.

Personally, if it gets real bad (let's hope not), I'll take a hack saw to a 10 oz bar of silver for a small purchase. Chop up a maple - I don't think so, cause my gold will be buried so deep . . . waiting for the dust to settle.

General Public is virtually ignorant of what is going on and transpiring. It'l take another crisis or two and some time, but its coming.

Pizz


YGM
(05/06/2002; 20:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75054)
V.A.T. Being lifted from Gold in Korea? Possibly June.
http://www.platts.com/stories/pr1.htmlOne more Asian country will be buying more Gold...OK!
Pizz
(05/06/2002; 20:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75055)
@Mikal
I really don't have an answer (rate hike may work) to my own statement on just what the PTB are going to say when all their bullish BS comes home to roost, but I do feel someone or something will have to be "tossed under the bus". (That's car biz lingo for blaming everyone but yourself.)

I'm expecting the government to start hedging their 'bets' a bit. Going to be one heck of an off major election this year, mud throwing by the supertanker load.

Thanks for the feedback.

Pizz
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 20:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75056)
Pizz � Solar Power Packs

I am afraid that I do not have much experience here. However, I have a friend who has a solar powered and "crank up" radio (Kaito Solar AM/FM/Shortwave Radio) that seems to work well without batteries (it will also operate on batteries). The crank charges the radio for a time as the slow unwinding action generates electricity. I understand that each full cycle lasts at least an hour. There are also lamps that operate the same way such as the Solar Dynamo Rechargeable Lantern (solar powered lantern does sound a bit redundant doesn't it?). There are even solar-powered battery chargers available. There are several brands of these kinds of items available. You could do an internet search under "emergency radio" or "earthquake preparation" or something similar � you should be able to find something similar.

I just have the usual Coleman lantern, oil lamp, candles, flint and steel and battery operated gadgets, however, these other "emergency" items should work out well and that they can work without batteries is a plus. Fortunately I have a hideaway in the mountains where I could live a more "primitive" life if necessary. However, I am used to that kind of life due to work and up-bringing whereas someone with a family to look after would perhaps like something much more convenient. I don't think that you could go wrong by preparing for any emergency and these items are a good start.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
(05/06/2002; 20:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75057)
The Hobbits are CELEBRATING breaking through $313.
NEXT hesitation stop is $325.
<;-)
sector
(05/06/2002; 21:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75058)
@CavenMan...The Fed's New Gold Buying Adversary
We don't have names but we know addresses.

We don't know them all but we know enough.

One gains perepective on who is buying now by observing who bought in Feb. but is quiet now.

It isn't the arabs but they count.

In the end... they will win...big. It's the patience thing.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/06/2002; 21:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75059)
Are the Kangeroos Hopping in Sydney?
Somebody actually started buying gold down under. Kicking kiwi koalas batman. No more selling on the Isles of Perth. Yes, mates we'd might better cover our hedgebooks before we get covered up 6 foot under down under right.
Canuck
(05/06/2002; 21:27:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75060)
@ Pizz, All
For some reason I've been tuning in on 'the inside information' scoop for the last year or so.

I didn't see the SM sell off but if my (inside) guess is correct I wouldn't be surprised with an increase tomorrow.
Was the sell-off abrupt/intense this afternoon?

On the other hand, gold powering ahead flys in the face of this guesstimation.

We shall see soon enough.
Black Blade
(05/06/2002; 22:08:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75061)
Hole in Ohio reactor vessel, cracks in South Carolina plant raise biggest nuclear safety questions since TMI
http://www.boston.com/dailynews/126/region/Hole_in_Ohio_reactor_vessel_cr:.shtml
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) A nuclear reactor in Ohio is found to have a large hole nobody thought possible, burned almost through its six-inch protective steel cover. Cracks of a type never seen before are discovered at a reactor in South Carolina, triggering widespread inspections. Both events caught industry leaders and government regulators by surprise, and they are fueling new questions about aging nuclear power plants and plant inspection programs.


Black Blade: More problems found in the nation's nukes. When boric acid corrosion was found at the Davis Besse reactor in Ohio, the NRC demanded that all 68 other nukes of similar design be inspected. Now another near miss has been found. More inspections are likely and the resulting shutdowns will likely result in increased draw-down of the NG supply.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/06/2002; 22:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75062)
POG + 30 is what we might see.
From the increasing magnitude of each 4 month POG price breakout, we are scheduled for a $30 spike with a fallback of only $5. Whatever price it bases at for now is what I'm adding that $30 to. Charts are the sum collective of all the traders in the world. Their footprints are in the cadence of history across the gold dust sprinkled trail.

"Paper-man where art thou? Who told you that paper was money? Did you go to the banker and eat from the tree it was known that you shouldn't eat from? The tree of usury and unjust gain?"

Chris Powell
(05/06/2002; 22:17:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75063)
More indications that Barrick is frantic to cover
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1097More indications that Barrick is frantic to cover
its shorts through combination with AngloGold
and Gold Fields:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1097

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Waverider
(05/07/2002; 00:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75064)
Tapping gold's latent market
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BB100522239Snippit:
"� Gold Fields' chairman Chris Thompson believes the drive to market and sell gold jewellery is not enough to mop up a physical gold overhang, given the metal's latent potential in the investment sector. Marketing gold jewellery subjects bullion to changes in fashion and economic cycles.

"The big opportunity is actually to develop the investment side of the business because I do believe, I personally believe, that there is a large latent investment demand out there which we need to foster; we need to make it much easier to own gold, we have to get rid of all the legacy of denial that was in the past when you couldn't own it. It is now possible and we need to make the whole system easy to handle, so that that potential demand can be triggered. It will absorb much of the potential bank gold that the banks may ultimately want to sell. That's the big challenge ahead of us," Thompson said.

"...Most portfolios, equity managers' portfolios, are, by mandate, not allowed to own gold. Most of the mandates around the world dictate you can own equities, bonds, tradable instruments, etc, but physical bullion you can't own � so that a huge part of the investment universe is actually denied the opportunity to do so. We need to make it possible for them to own gold. So there's a lot of thinking going on in the business about how we can free up that potential market," he said.

Waverider: An excellent initiative! Maybe this is why most people shy away from Gold investment and portfolio insurance - it's considered too out of the mainstream and inaccessible, and hence it's automatically assumed to be speculative and risky. I sense a change in the wind....
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 01:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75065)
U.S. IS HEADED FOR AN ENERGY SUPPLY TRAIN WRECK, OIL AND GAS EXECUTIVES WARN
http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200205071675.3.1_fee6000aa78ee83a
Snippit:

The United States is headed for an energy supply train wreck, oil and gas executives warned at two major energy conferences this spring."The International Energy Agency projects oil consumption will rise 60 percent in 20 years.

So we, in essence, need to add 2 million incremental barrels per day, every year, to meet that - or the equivalent of five Saudi Arabias in those two decades," he explained. "But non-OPEC increases will be limited. Mergers have reduced organic growth possibilities and most companies are much more disciplined in what they drill."

Seitz suggested that the real debate in the United States should be about natural gas policy issues, not about drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. "We all have heard about many power plant projects being canceled or delayed. But due to all the construction of the last two years, this summer we will have an additional 45 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity on line, and that translates to at least one-half to four billion cubic feet per day of new gas demand," he said. "Every 1 Bcf [billion cubic feet] burned by the new plants is a Bcf not available for fall storage," Seitz observed.

"What has happened to our industry? Where have all the prospects gone?" asked Lightner. "Over the last 10 years, most of the gas supply and drilling activity has been from exploitation, not exploration. The problem is, this is a finite game."



Black Blade: The US is heading into an oncoming train. We are headed for another energy crisis. We did not learn from the past so we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes all over again. The end result is an economic calamity. As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance on hand, get enough cash stashed for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program.

sstins
(05/07/2002; 01:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75066)
314.40
This market is still imho very controlled but fortunately it appears someone new is behind the wheel.

Talked with a local box maker and he mentioned that they've been getting Fridays off the last couple of weeks.

hmmmm...

get out of debt "I wish"
start a food program "might actually do that"
add PM's to your portfolio "check and double check"
begin a box storage program "uh..okay"
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 01:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75067)
Whoa! Look at Spot and the Falling USD!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Spot bounded over $314.00/oz. and the USD could flounder under 113 tonight. All major currencies are punishing the US Dollar. I see the Euro is popping up over 92 cents to the US Dollar. Oil is recovering slightly tonight as well. There is a lot of fear that the US markets will crash further on concerns over no real corporate earnings. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade
Spartacus
(05/07/2002; 01:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75068)
George will follow public opinion on euro
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT30A8ZSW0D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
Sir Edward George, governor of the Bank of England, has said he will not oppose euro entry if the government and the public decide to support it.

In an interview with the Financial Times coinciding with the fifth anniversary of central bank independence, Sir Edward said: "[The Bank] is an institution which has a great tradition of public service, and it would see its responsibility as making a success of whatever was decided."

His remarks will disappoint eurosceptics, who see Sir Edward as a sympathiser.

Although he has tried in his public statements to set out both the benefits and risks of euro entry, his warnings of the dangers have seemed more heartfelt.

He has, for example, stressed the potential costs of a "one size fits all" interest rate for Europe. And he identified the high level of the pound against the euro as "an immediate obstacle" to entry.

He also described the shift to a system in which the Bank's governor would help to set interest rates as a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank as "a little bit like going back to the old arrangements where the governor advised the chancellor and the decision was taken by the chancellor".

But he indicated that in spite of these doubts, he and the Bank would not stand in the way of a decision to join the euro.

By the time a decision is taken next year, a successor will probably have been chosen to Sir Edward, who steps down at the end of June 2003.

But Sir Edward said: "Whoever succeeds me I think would become absolutely committed to making it work."

Spartacus: A trensdhift in the make?
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 01:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75069)
EIA boosts 2002 demand estimates for US natgas
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020506/energy_eia_demand_1.htmlSnippit:

WASHINGTON, May 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. government increased its estimates for growth in natural gas demand this year, citing industrial growth and a gradually reviving economy. The Energy Information Administration said summer natural gas demand would be 4.4 percent higher than the year-ago period. Previously, the EIA had estimated an increase of 4.1 percent.

Black Blade: Gee what a surprise. The EIA report fails to mention that exploration and production has fallen off so that reserves and storage are not being replenished at rates sufficient to avoid an energy crunch.
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 01:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75070)
What A Reversal!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD suddenly gained strength and all currencies dived against the US Dollar. Gold appears to have dropped slightly as well. Something very odd is happening tonight.

- Black Blade
And�ril
(05/07/2002; 01:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75071)
msg#: 75028 Siochain, it is a funeral
You need wonder no longer "why they want to take it (gold) off your hands".

Consider only this from your repost: there in the voice of Mr. Kaplan you may listen as though you hear the words of a dying man. Some now pinched much tighter, losing grips on the juggler's game faster than others; in this you may do no better than looking straight into the eye and mind a representative of gold leasing. Taking solid gold deposits under promise of interest returns or cheap storage; borrowing short term while lending long. The classic poor banker's panic when loans default and depositors run. Step lively to the front to reclaim your unallocated accounts, there is no FDIC safety net where wisdom has failed with these leasing operations.

Read these silly words again!

"if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. "

LAUGHTER!! Then beat them with hammers into buttons and watch their value return to the heavens! Grind them with pebbles back into ore and return to the ground; then selling maps to the location and turns at the shovel, Tom Sawyer this is better than painting fences, this is better than gold!!

No 'forty-niner been kicked by a mule ever saw such an 'ass as this! "Many analysts and I" it calls itself??! Is it beyond wondering of some dominoes that they fall FIRST? YES! It is a wonder that they ever stood at all!!

This cry of nonsense is to be heard as wails of desperation. You hear also the bagpipes maybe. The crows will come, but they will find no meal there. The bones are already picked clean. How much fast and loose gold account will "YOU" suffer to be lost as the paper dominoes fall? You will be given no other warning with more meaning than this from a spokesman, eye to eye. Your fate, it is yours to choose from voices on the wind and in your mind the shape of things to come.
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 02:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75072)
Moody's warns on bankers� probe
http://www.msnbc.com/news/748523.asp?0si=-&cp1=1
Any indictments could result in ratings cuts, Moody's says

Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 6 � Moody's Investors Service on Monday said that investigations of investment banks that lead to criminal indictments could result in rating cuts.


Black Blade: Couldn't happen to a bunch of nicer people.

Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 03:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75073)
David Tice Interview (thestreet.com)
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/mutualfundmondaybg/10020816.html
Snippit:

Q: You've often said that the dollar is overvalued. Do you still think that's the case? What part do credit issues play?

A: Yes. We have a dysfunctional global currency and economic system, in which the whole world is set up to sell to the American consumer. Essentially, the rest of the world is working for the U.S. consumer, who is spending far more than they earn, sending paper to the rest of the world for their goods. That's been able to occur because the dollar has been so strong. In other words, the rest of the world wants to buy our paper.

But the dollar is weakening, and the price of gold is increasing. Gold is the antithesis of the dollar; it's the asset for uncertain times. When gold prices go up, it indicates a problem -- some discomfort or uncertainty -- in the system. The price of gold is close to $310; it had been below $300 for a long, long time.


� Bad Trends in the Industry: Not only is performance off -- you may not even be able to find out who's in charge of your fund.
� When Too Much Cash Is Bad: It can drag down returns within a fund and within your overall portfolio.
� Reverse Engineer Your Mutual Fund: Here's how to analyze a portfolio to uncover a manager's strategy.

Q:. What will trigger the dramatic downturn you're expecting?

A: It could be a number of things: the dollar continuing to decline, interest rates go back up, gold prices going higher, a resistance to buying asset-backed securities, continued lowered corporate earnings and uncertainty in corporate bonds. All these factors in the background could cause some incremental selling in the margin, prompting a slide past September's lows. If interest rates start rising at the same time the stock market goes lower than it did in September, corporate earnings won't come back and we could see another round of layoffs -- and the U.S. consumer will start to panic.

The U.S. consumer has been sold a bill of goods that the Fed will create permanent prosperity for us. But in a postbubble economy, there's not a lot that can be done except take the pain and correct the imbalances. That means lower and lower profits and lower and lower stock prices and a more disconsolate consumer. And it gets ugly. We're moving from the virtuous circle of the past five years to a vicious cycle. I wish Alan Greenspan could snap his fingers and make it go away, but he can't.


Black Blade: So far that is how it has been playing out. There's a lot of pain to come yet. I was talking to a friend today and he said that "The (stock) market will get better and that the analysts keep projecting that the market will recover". I said, "yeah, but that's their job". It was like a light turned on. Should've seen his face when that sank in. I don't think that many people have awakened yet. When they wake up and run for the exits � look out.

Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 03:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75074)
P/E Ratios--Why The Confusion?
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=716&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

One of the problems with the deterioration of accounting standards is that no one seems to know the true state of earnings, and we therefore hear a wide range of price-earnings ratios being mentioned on the Street and in the media. Most investors are puzzled when they hear one "expert" state the price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 53 only to hear another "expert" say its only 19 a short time later.


Black Blade: Actually it gets worse, the S&P 500 is calculated on "operating earnings". That is these earnings are absolutely bogus. That is why you see an average p/e for the index at about 20. When actual "real" true to life � bottom line � "net earnings" are calculated, the p/e is closer to 60. Be careful out there � the charlatans of Wall Street do not want you to know the true state of the markets � it's bad for business.

Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 03:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75075)
Euro Markets Awash In Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
European markets are awash in red. Perhaps it is a case of "monkey see - monkey do" in response to yesterdays negative results in NY trading. The futures in NY are not very impressive this morning. We could see a lot of volatility at the open. Amazingly, the USD has made a huge swing from negative to positive this morning while foriegn currencies are turning negative. This is a real battle as the nations with the weakest currencies win the trade wars while the loser ultimately has the reward of a trade deficit.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 03:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75076)
IBM In Trouble?

Word is coming over the wire that IBM will be announcing some "aggressive cost cutting". It appears that massive layoffs are in the works and possibly some plant closures. Yep - looks like a recovery to me.

- Black Blade
Topaz
(05/07/2002; 04:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75077)
Sydney "up"

Lo and behold, for only the second time in recent history, OZ market was UP.....now theres a curiosity.

I'm also a little conserned for GWB - recall the press conference after the Crown Prince meeting, GW surely looked "in shock".... since then the Leader of the Free World has severely restricted his public appearances (at least internationally) - coincidentally, the POG runup and US$ swoon began shortly thereafter.
All his merry men are making the running it seems.
Any thoughts?
Arcticfox
(05/07/2002; 04:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75078)
More reason to own physical....
By James E. Sinclair, Chairman & CEO
Tan Range Exploration TNX
jes108@aol.com



As we follow the yellow brick road of gold derivatives we seem to entering the financial land Oz. We need to examine comparisons between what occurred in the Derivative market for electricity and what might occur in the Derivative market for gold.

A Derivative is defined as a trading item derived from an underling asset. The first gold derivatives are futures. That means the first financial entity derived from gold. There is inherent financial strength in the first derivative, the listed futures markets, because they are reasonably guaranteed by the existence of a clearing house function, known statistics of price and volume plus regulations. As we move into second and third derivatives the air of the exotic mathematician enters the equation. So does the feeling that we are in financial land of Oz.

We have already described these advanced derivatives as financial creations to you characterized by their nature of;

Unregulated,
Non Transparent,
Without a clearinghouse,
Dependent entirely on the balance sheet of the grantor as to performance
Without rights of offset,
only to mention a few of their less than desirable characteristics.

The primary similarity between the derivative market for electricity and the derivative market for gold is the fact that the underling volume of trade in the basic asset electricity and basic asset gold is the smallest of all popular trading items upon which has been constructed a large modern derivative market.

You can simplify your understanding of the strength of a derivative vehicle by accepting the axiom that the more volume that is traded in the underling asset the stronger will the derivative in that item be. Therefore the least likely derivatives to fail would be those on interest sensitive items, currencies and equities. The most likely to fail are those on electricity or gold.

Now we come to two interesting facts concerning Enron. You can track the beginning of Enron's end to the end of the Bull Market in electricity. The second and most important fact is that it has been reported that Enron hedged with itself. However no one so far has outlined why Enron hedged with itself. Finally we know that Enron set up a maze of partnerships that appeared independent but were not.

We are working our way toward the relationship between Enron on one hand and the Gold Derivative/Gold Banks on the other hand. It should be kept in mind that the derivative market for gold is a phenomenon of the 90s. That in the 80s this market was practically non-existent.

Now let us paint a scenario that only an arbitrageur could. If someone less then ethical or legal wanted to start a market in electricity in a derivative form they would need to establish what we shall call foundational transactions.

In order to do this they would;

1/ Organize a group of partnerships which would be given different names, different partners, different capitalization and addresses. These partnerships would appear independent but would in fact be controlled.

2/ Then organize a number of people to act as members of the independent partnerships parceling them out one at a time to appear to manage each of the independent appearing partnerships.

3/ Then one master trader with a singular derivative program would create many trades of different kinds and varieties of derivatives handing them out to say 12 partnerships.

4/ Each partnership would be given transactions that represented different views. Some would be bull, some neutral and other would be bears.

5/ If you examined any one of these partnerships you would see real risk giving the appearance of a real market. However if you looked at all the partnerships on one singular spread sheet the entire group of partnerships are totally even without any risk.

Could the gold derivative market's foundational transactions have been created by the same procedure? We shall see.

After you have done the above, any partnership can trade with a non conspiratorial dealer. All that needs to be done at night is that the conspiratorial group's master trader writes trades and distributes to the entire inside group transactions that return the conspiratorial group to even. The commissions that the group receives are enormous and hidden in the spread. That means the prices paid for derivative instruments includes points for the partnership. All this will stand up until one thing happens. A significant change in trend results in a need to close and reverse position which is by definition impossible.

Therefore, if Enron did this, they would have been making a fortune in trading derivatives in electricity until the bull market in electricity failed, thereby giving birth and acceleration to the bear market. Enron started its collapse when the electricity market changed trend and reversed direction. This could be the real Enron story. In such a situation the foundational derivative position would then failed to function financially because it was a paper construct. Thus the entire market melts down. Bankruptcy occurs but those in conspiracy have made huge commissions and taken profits out the back door of the failed entity in salaries, expenses and bonuses.

The entire mess is so huge, complex and confusing that the conspiracy is never defined. The conspirators laugh all the way to the bank. No one will know what really happened unless all of partnership and their transaction are audited as one spread sheet.

Is it possible that the end of the bear market in gold, which we have certainly feel has occurred, is the beginning of the demise of the financial integrity of the gold derivative and therefore many of the gold banks. We shall see but there is a great deal of reason to suspect the financial integrity of the instruments.

Thanks to Reginald Howe all the information you require to keep yourself abreast of the size of the total commercial bank position in the gold derivative market is available on his web page www.goldensextantcom. Mr. Howe has even provided the hyperlink required for direct access to the facts and figures.

Dr. Schultz (www.hsletter.com) has outlined for you the exact position of all the producing gold companies short spread position. This will be continually monitored for you in the Harry Schultz Letter.

All these figures are as of the latest reporting period with new figures due shortly.

Total Gold Producers Short Gold Spreads as reported in HSL are 97,446,190 ounces which is today worth USD$30,344,743,566.00. This represents two years full production of all producing gold mines. However this figures represents only 13% of the value of the total Gold Derivative market according to the Bank for International Settlements Yes, the total size of the G 10 commercial banks derivative positions is valued by the BIS at a lower gold price than today at $218,000,000,000.00. Harry Schultz & I will pains takingly examine the figures in order to offset longs against shorts to render a better figure for you.

The commercial bank net short spread position will, in our opinion, represent a net position of 100,000,000 to 200,000,000 ounces in short gold spreads. Regardless, it should bring the total short spread position to net short of an at least a total of 3 to 4 years production. We hope that will be the final number but stay tuned as we diligently work to provide you with the real gold picture.

The notional value is the value that a derivative such as a call is determined if you multiplied the price at which call is written times the ounces for which the call was written. For instance if you had a call on 100 ounces of gold at $325, the notional value is $32,500 but the call may have cost you only $2000. Our calculations indicate to us that at $354 every derivative on gold will reach its notional value. Therefore you can say that notional value will become real value because the call is exercisable by the bull interest in this case. For those that argue this $354 price, please remember that if gold for delivery one year out rises the price of gold every year out also rises but to a larger degree.

Therefore we conclude that;

1/Notional value becomes real value at the average price of gold over the past five years plus the average catango (a condition that exists when cash gold sells at a lower price than forward gold is called a catango) when it becomes the market price. In the most practical sense, knowing the inside of this market, the price of gold at which notional value of all present gold derivative becomes real value at $354 gold.

2/All derivative dealers maintain software programs for risk control. When I ran an arb, I & my partners determined what risk percentage of nominal value we would permit as we pursued our arb business on any given item such as gold, silver etc. I was never interested as the proprietor in each trader's position. What I watched was the entire house position. Risk control programs vary from gold bank to gold bank but the computer mathematical logic is the same. All gold hedges are short gold spreads (a spread is a long position against a short position). For the gold producers it takes many different forms but is basically the same logic. A producer could simply sell deffered delivery gold against gold in the ground as an example.

By our calculation as gold closed over $305 the risk control programs began to call for increased longs to offset the short in the short gold spread. This explains the strong action in gold over the last two weeks. It also explains the absence of the gold cartel right now. If they were in to sell now they would be buying from themselves on their risk control programs. This maintains the risk exposure fixed at a predetermined level for the arbitrage dealer gold bank. At $354 gold, the risk control programs will call for one ounce long for every ounce of gold short. The gold producer hedges at 97,466,190 ounces industry wide.

These producer positions have been laid off (a term meaning trade to) to the subsidiaries commercial/investment banks called gold banks that in turn lay off the long side by selling into the various paper gold items from Comex and London deferred to derivative of third and fourth forms. The skinny is someone will be buying 97,466,190 ounces or going quite broke at gold $354.

As a professional trader in the gold market for a total of 43 years experience, allow me to assure you the gold market is in the hands of the bull today. It appears to me as if Hung Fat and Dr. No have the producers and what I call "Wise Guys" by the neck. Anyone who thinks there is a public in this market knows nothing about gold. Gold never leads the commodity market, it follows it.

I would like to call your attention to what I see as the real risk to the gold producers:

The present vehicles used by the gold producers has produced a total short spread position of 97,466,190 ounces worth today USD$30,344,743,566.00 are:

1/ Unregulated.
2/ Non transparent.
3/ Traded in private treaty.
4/ Without reporting of trading statistics.
5/ Without the ability for the gold producer to lift legs of the spreads independently
6/ With a requirement that changes or closures must be made only at the gold bank that granted the short gold spread.
7/ Without a right of offset between the gold producer and the gold bank.
8/Priced by computer modeling, not market forces of supply and demand.
9/Without a clearing house facility to give a reasonable guarantee to financial performance.
10/Granted generally by subsidiaries of the well known investment or commercial bank.
11/ These subsidiaries generally do not publish balance sheets. It appears that for SEC purposes all which is required for a subsidiary is reporting if or not they comply with capital requirements in area of their domiciled if there is any.
12/Those that do publish financial figures usually do not give figures for total derivatives to which they are obligated to.
13/These subsidiaries have no automatic guarantee for their trade debts in case of bankruptcy
14/These subsidiaries are generally not domiciled in the USA.

To the short spread positions of the gold producers of 97,466,190 ounces, you must add at least a short gold spread position of that same amount or larger for what I call the "Wise Guys." The "Wise Guys" are traders in the market without a commodity hedging reason to be there.

They are the gold lease boys that use the funds for other than mining purposes and the carry trade gang who seek to profit as gold bears while capturing the difference between cash gold and forward gold in unlisted markets.

In my opinion, at $354 gold the foundational transactions of the gold derivative market could be tested. The melt down could then in full swing. We shall see as the gold market is no longer in the hands of the bears. The bears have lost their death grip on gold, if or not they know it. Be prepared for the arrival of central bank selling. The Cartel is neutralized by the risk control programs as buyers. I suspect that the next arrival of large cartel selling in gold will be hours before some central bank announces a large sale of gold. Expect the market to pull back but not as much as expected. Then Hung Fat and Dr. No will oversubscribe the auction and away we go on the upside for the price of gold. This will mirror the events of 1978, 1979 & 1980.

Both the junior exploration and development company plus all producers from modest to major who have hedge position will be placed in dire to uncomfortable conditions. Junior exploration and development companies with percentage deals with the majors are in as much and more danger than a major gold producer with a war chest of money.

Every junior exploration and development company subordinates their percentage of the property to the means of creating the loan which included full recourse to the derivative position taken by the major to produce the non recourse development loan. I believe when the cash call comes because of the derivative melt down the juniors will have to hand over their percentage property position to the major. This is why Harry advised and I have taken TNX towards the royalty route which has no exposure to the derivative of the major.

The non gold related people in gold derivatives, "Wise Guys", will be pulled down in whatever entities they are dealing if the melt down occurs. Balanced positions or even bull positions are no protection for the gold producer dealing in the gold derivative market today. If a melt down occurs gold producers who have no rights of offset in their contracts with the gold bank will be in serious difficulties regardless of their position. They will in the ensuing bankruptcy lose their credits and have to pay up on debits.

The gold producers should certainly ask themselves why they remain in gold derivative positions even if those positions are balanced when major traditional dealers exit the marketplace. If Credit Suisse First Boston and Rothschild's as example are expunging derivative contracts from their book, why does a gold producer take comfort holding such items? We are in a gold bull market and the gold equity or convertible bond financing window is open. The gold producers should either replace the non recourse gold loan with traditional financing or take recourse to the company on all development loans in order to expunge all derivative contracts now.


Topaz
(05/07/2002; 05:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75079)
Out of the Frying Pan....
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1020709966.htmleom.
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 05:12:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75080)
Dollar Wins Some Reprieve Before FOMC
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020507/markets_forex_3.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar regained its balance after hitting two-month lows against the yen and seven-month troughs versus the euro on Tuesday, as investors bought it back on their return from a long weekend in London. But sentiment for the dollar, which has lost four percent on traded weighted terms in recent weeks, remained fragile as weak U.S. stocks on Monday and recent poor data undermined faith in the prospects for a solid and sustained U.S. recovery.

"Given the market's extreme positioning, the dollar cannot continue to fall in the near term," said Steven Saywell, senior currency strategist at Citibank. "But the big picture remains unchanged. The dollar is vulnerable as the U.S. will it find increasingly difficult to fund its current account deficit and the market is questioning U.S. asset prices."

Worries about the shape of the U.S. recovery have reinforced investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at its policy-setting committee meeting later on Tuesday. The greenback also drew some support from intervention warnings against export-damaging yen strength from Japan's Ministry of Finance officials.


Black Blade: This is quite funny actually. Everyone is fighting to keep a weaker currency. Governments everywhere are intervening in the markets. Meanwhile the US account deficit and trade deficit continues to grow. This could develop into a war over who can have the weakest currency.

Cavan Man
(05/07/2002; 05:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75081)
@Arctic Fox....RE: Jim Sinclair's essay and analysis
Remember FOA?Thanks for posting that article. Just a point of reference for any who care to read; Mr. Sinclair's $354, where, "the derivative foundation could be tested", is $6 from the $360 where both FOA and his "friend" have said the paper market would blow up. Those gentlemen were/are genuine. We are headed there.
Mr Gresham
(05/07/2002; 05:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75082)
Arcticfox: Sinclair
Quite a catch there, with the James Sinclair essay on faking a derivative market. I think this is just the organization of my random thoughts and (mis-?)understandings on the subject I have been looking for. Thanks. Now, back to reading the rest of it (or, back to sleep, if it wears ma wee brainie oot...)
Mr Gresham
(05/07/2002; 05:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75083)
Good mornin', CM
We're runnin' in the same groove lately, no?
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/07/2002; 06:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75084)
The Volcano is Volatile.
The dollar is doing its technical bounce and it's going to wipe out all the traders who got spooked to go long on the Euro. The high volatility in the POG is showing a reversal of sentiment among traders. Those equate to "spinning tops" a candle pattern denoting longs going short and shorts going long. They are all a little confused. When they buy or sell they say "What's a dollar mean 312 or 313 I don't care". To me it means the past general unbelief about gold's rally sustainability is turning into belief. Longs are licking their chops and shorts are feeling stupid. So changes are taking place. Longs are selling early taking some profits while shorts buy to cover before they get their heads handed to them.

What's amazing about Kaplan is that there hundreds of other non-gold analysts who follow him. Like a room full of parrots and they're clueless so they talk to each other. As long as they use all the lingo, it sounds like something. But we can't predict the migration of paper-pushers to goldbugs by examining the moths on the trees. Who is "net short or net long" doesn't even matter because this breakout is an unwinding short squeeze. Volatility is going UP,way up. We're are now entering the asteroid field that it broke 310. It's 1 Martini lunches for the boys in the metals pits now. Gotta get back to the action. What would it feel like to be a market maker for Intel or Cisco? It was supposed to breakout everyday for the past month. They have to be so full of stock like just give it away. And they all laugh at gold, but the gold longs are the ones smiling and going long and longer. Because the rally is REAL and don't have a heart attack yet. We are going to see hedge cover purchases FRONTRUNNING the POG ON ALL EXCHANGES. That's right a rally on every exchange as the buyers try to front run the next breakout. Barrick will have buyers on every exchange waiting for price dips. They all will. And when the new faces show up.........Who is He? Oh he buys for Anglogold or He buys for Barrick. No hiding in the wings. Those guys with their hands up in the air all day long aren't swating flies. We are past the Caldera smoke stage, times of the daily rumblings and shock tremors. But of course the town won't evacuate because gold has done this before. Not until the lava is in the air do they get in the car. The stock market is nothing but black spotted bananas and they say, "Here's a good one to get a bite out of here". Half the "picks" in the IBD "winners" coverage have volumes under 50,000 for the day. They're reaching down for the last wilted turnip. They can spoof oil and natural gas down so they do. They're giving up on gold attacks at this level. Rate of cash burn is too high. "Pull the boys back, these suits aren't made for these high temperatures." They'll try to "surround and drown" at 350.

Grubstaker
(05/07/2002; 06:50:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75085)
Black Blade (5/7/02; 01:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 75067)
What was it that Henny Penny said to Chicken little?..I can't seem to remember those infamous words of wisdom at this juncture...Ho Ho Ho is prety close, ay?

Whoa! Look at Spot and the Falling USD!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

Spot bounded over $314.00/oz. and the USD could flounder under 113 tonight. All major currencies are punishing the US Dollar. I see the Euro is popping up over 92 cents to the US Dollar. Oil is recovering slightly tonight as well. There is a lot of fear that the US markets will crash further on concerns over no real corporate earnings. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

A Canadian
(05/07/2002; 07:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75086)
@ GR2
Please don't ever leave us.
-immensively appreciative.
Siochain
(05/07/2002; 07:10:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75087)
http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A85256BB100782968?OpenDocument
The above link is included in Chris's GATA post of last night re the Barrick/Anglo rumored take-out of Gold Fields

I deliberately use the word TAKE-OUT for that is what it potentially might be ....yes, Barrick needs the unhedged gold....badly.....BUT based on their ties to the Cabal ...their VERY STRONG ties, I should say...I am concerned that there could be a sinister side to such a Take-out besides the immediate bail-out of Barrick's hedge

I see Barrick as a puppet who has willingly played with and is deeply intertwined with the Big Bad Boys...I wonder if this has deeper implications where the combo could be controlled by the Cabal and eventually used to attempt to bring down gold when the opportunity arises.

The plum of the largest gold company with deep SA assets may be just what the Bullion Banks etc are looking for....great leverage to attempt to fix gold again

Just my thought...and concern
nickel62
(05/07/2002; 07:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75088)
Black Blade I think you hit it right on the head...this has been a war to see who has the weakest currency for almost ten years now!
"Black Blade: This is quite funny actually. Everyone is fighting to keep a weaker currency. Governments everywhere are intervening in the markets. Meanwhile the US account deficit and trade deficit continues to grow. This could develop into a war over who can have the weakest currency."

You betch yah! They have been looking for that foreign trade export advantage without having to really make the hard decisions about restructuring their economies for years, both the Euro-Socialists and the Japanese. In the early 1990s Rubin percieved this and shoved the price of gold down and US dollar up knowing full well the other main players would willingly cooperate.

nickel62
(05/07/2002; 07:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75089)
Siochain I think you have it nailed exactly...
Sad but true the big boys are after all in control of most of the strings and it would make perfect sense if they need the cover that they would nail GOLDFIELDS. I guess we have all been assuming they would make a run at Newmont when the time comes to need more gold that is unhedged, but Goldfields might make more sense. This is most likly the "plumb" that was dangled in front of the Barrick board years ago when they were co-opted into the cabal years ago.
A Canadian
(05/07/2002; 07:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75090)
@ Black Blade
Like food on my table I take you for granted...until you're not there!
-wish I could repay. (everyone for that matter).
Siochain
(05/07/2002; 07:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75091)
@mikal (75043)
Thank you,very much! I missed all you wonderful Gold Troubadours (true Knights & Ladies, all) though the getaway was much needed and helped ...and thanks for keeping gold up...job well done!!!! (though keep it up...looks like we're under attack for the moment)
RobotGuy
(05/07/2002; 07:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75092)
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (05/07/02; 06:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 75084)
"Volatile Volcano" Well said! I'm going to read that one a couple more times!

I wish I shared the literary talents of the many in this forum!

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.
Grubstaker
(05/07/2002; 07:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75093)
Batter up!!
Gold off $2.80
US$ up $ .56
Looks like them YANKEES are still a pretty good darn team there in NYC..(markets).Home team is at bat..don't head for the hills quite yet..
Mr Gresham
(05/07/2002; 07:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75094)
GR2: Wow!
"Not until the lava is in the air do they get in the car."

Like listening to a symphony, hearing your mind and words play on all levels.

BTW, your metaphor matches experiences I heard of Navy and Filipino civilian evacuations from Subic Bay under Pinatubo's fiery eruption several years back. Wait too long, and they just have to stay in the house and hope for survival. (Who was it said: "Hope is a lousy investment strategy."?)
YGM
(05/07/2002; 07:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75095)
Cheap Retirement Home?
Try Argentina.....May 06, 2002

Argentina Real Estate Market Plummets


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina- Hung around the perimeter walls of President Eduardo Duhalde's residence in a well-heeled Buenos Aires suburb, a thousand for sale or rent placards tell the woeful story of Argentina's struggling real estate brokers who nailed them there.

For an X-ray view of how an unpopular banking freeze, the peso's painful devaluation and a lack of credit have paralyzed South America's No. 2 economy, just take a look at the property market.

Prices are in a tailspin, but nobody's buying. Their savings are trapped in a tottering banking system that doesn't have enough capital to return savers' cash, let alone grant new home loans.

Realtors say the paralysis threatens nearly 2 million jobs and predict the sector - like Argentina's economy as a whole - will only recover with firm government action and clear policies that will restore faith in the financial system.

But Enrique Colautti of Associated Realtors in Extinction, the pressure group that hung the plaques outside Duhalde's residence, compares piecemeal economic policies adopted by Duhalde so far to "trying to staunch a hemorrhage with a Band Aid."

"When they announced the devaluation in January, we had 17 deals lined up that simply evaporated overnight," said Paul A. Reynolds of JR Reynolds, an upmarket realtor with offices on a tree-lined avenue near Duhalde's residence.

"For over two months, we didn't close a single sale," he said. "Thank goodness we managed to pick up the slack with the rentals business. That has covered our costs."

With the peso plunging 70 percent, trading today at three to the U.S. dollar, property prices have plummeted as much as 60 percent and few Argentines - who still like to calculate their personal worth in greenback terms - are willing to sell at such discounts.

In any case, it's difficult for people to buy because their savings accounts were frozen in December to prop up the banking system.

"There's little consensus," said Reynolds. "There's no response to the lower prices because there's no cash available. All the money is tied into the banking system and there's no credit to be had."

So even wealthier home owners are opting to rent out their apartments and are looking for leases on smaller, cheaper ones.

According to Colautti, the crisis has put more than a quarter of the country's 25,000 realtors out of business, meaning 40,000 lost jobs.

The knock-on effect for the moribund construction and building supplies industry has been disastrous, he said, estimating some 1.8 million workers - 90 percent of the sector's workforce - are idle.

Can anything be done to revive the market?

For a while, homes could be bought and mortgages paid off with by transferring savings from the buyer's to the seller's account.

Immediately classified ads appeared in daily newspapers advertising traders who would buy and sell bank balances at a 20 percent discount.

But now, savings can't even be used for that, meaning home buyers must pay with cash stashed under their mattresses or in bank accounts abroad.

Duhalde still has not finalized a scheme to reimburse savers with government and private bank bonds. Reynolds predicted those bonds would be also used as a substitute money for real estate transactions.

Colautti is bolder, calling for a "mini-Marshall Plan" to get the construction industry back on its feet.

But funding could be difficult. Duhalde has failed so far to mend bridges with the International Monetary Fund that cut off Argentina's credit lines last December for failing to meet budget targets.

For now, those who can leave Argentina are doing so, putting more real estate on the market and further depressing prices.

Transpack Argentina, a shipper and removal company, has seen its ratio of international corporate moves shift from three outbounds for every two inbounds at the start of recession in 1998 to seven outbounds for every one inbound today.

"We're as busy as we've ever been," said Cliff Williams, Transpack's managing director, adding that in addition to more repatriations by multinationals that are scaling - or closing - down Argentine operations, shipping inquiries from individual Argentines have "skyrocketed."

"The emigration business of Argentines packing up and leaving has suddenly become more significant for us," he said. "It's going to take a long time to restore confidence and our government is to blame for that."

--


Henri
(05/07/2002; 08:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75096)
GR2
Love the black spotted bananas analogy to SM. :-) LOL. The owner of the grocery store usually ends up eating the cost of aquisition...hope the shareholders didn't pay too much for that batch. They were probably a tad overipe when purchased.

Sinclair's message that notional value becomes real value at $354 hit home with me. Previously I considered derivatives dangerous but didn't really know why. Thought perhaps its all just smoke and mirrors and zero net risk sums. Sinclair has convinced me otherwise and as an ex-arbitrage house operator has much credibility with me. It says something when the head of a mining company (Tan Ridge?) steers clear of derivatives.

Cudos to Dr Harry S. This is a feather in your cap to be sure. But I know you are not in it for feathers...you must have a heavy and full length headress by now.
Henri
(05/07/2002; 08:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75097)
Last chance to buy in Peru
If Peru adopts silver money, Peru will become a bastion of stability that other Soth American countries will emulate. Get your real estate there now.

Argentina is beautiful but the RE market is not yet ripe for plucking...Hope Ted Turner didn't mortgage his ranch there for overseas cash...if so his creditors might want some assurance. Perhaps his gold stash will bear liquidation.
Henri
(05/07/2002; 08:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75098)
Wow! Spot recovers nicely
Perhaps Anglo needed to close more of its forward sales and had to strike while the lattes had not yet woken up the rest of the traders. If so good for Anglo. It will be very interesting to see who supported $309...it might explain the quick rebound
canamami
(05/07/2002; 08:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75099)
Gold's enduring value
Some time ago, I read an article about a stash of Roman gold coins found in England. Apparently, it was the habit when things were unsettled, to put together a stash of gold coins. This stash apparently dated from the time just when the Romans abandoned England. Evidently, the family in question failed to escape with their gold. But, centuries later, those coins are still worth something, notwithstanding the end of the Roman Empire.
Cavan Man
(05/07/2002; 08:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75100)
Clear Channel $17 BILLION write down
A billion here, a billion there; pretty soon you're talking about real money. (Apologies to the late Senator Everett Dirkson, IL)
balzac
(05/07/2002; 10:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75101)
Derivative post by Sinclar.
Artic Fox,

Thank you for the very revealing post on the intricaces

of the derivatives scams. This is one of the clearest and
most insightful posts that I have ever read.

I appreciate your candor and hope that all of the "bugs"
read it carefully. If your thinking is correct we had better start exiting mining pos'ns at about $350.in order to avoid the melt down.

Balzac
Pizz
(05/07/2002; 10:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75102)
Painting a better picture?
http://www.fin-info.com/$main$nobody,,16863246$c049617e7623/press_release.phtml?symbol=CBJ&_time=20020507105020Hedged miner Cambior just announced earnings.

In the footnotes. . . . .

In order to secure the net mine cash flows necessary to meet its
financial obligations and satisfy bank covenants, the Company
maintains a Revenue Protection Program for its gold operations.

During the first quarter, the Company realized a price of $289 per
ounce corresponding with the average market price for the quarter.


The gold price at March 31, 2002 was $24 per ounce higher than at
December 31, 2001 resulting in a negative adjustment of $11.9
million to the mark-to-market value for non-hedge derivative
instruments which include call options and the variable volume
forwards. This charge has no impact on cash flows and any future
charges, either positive or negative, will decrease as these
non-hedge derivative instruments either expire or with the
delivery of the ounces under these optionalities. At March 31,
2002, the Company had gold commitments of 874,000 ounces at an
average price of $320 per ounce with minimum delivery obligation
of 261,000 ounces at $339 per ounce under these optional
instruments. In order to avoid these non-cash adjustments in
future, the Company has decided to minimize the use of these
optionalities and the mark-to-market value of these instruments
will become nil and have no further impact on the Company's
earnings subsequent to 2004. During the first quarter of 2002, the
quantity of gold included in the non-hedge derivative instruments
declined by 6% and will continue to decline through 2002.

Coincident with the recently announced unit offering, Cambior
shall use its reasonable best efforts to renegotiate its mandatory
hedging convenants under its Credit Facilities in order to permit
the Company to reduce the mandatory amount of its hedged gold
production from 70% to 35% of its projected production up to
December 31, 2005.


Pizz: This (non-hedge???)is naked call writing pure and simple. When they mark to market and lose 11 billion, it's just a book entry right now, but what about the future inpact on cash flows in a continuing rising gold market? How can they imply that future delivery at less than market value will have no effect on cash flows? They have the nerve to call this a "Revenue Protection Plan". They also kind of skip over the fact that they are not marking to market or booking the 23.5 million they are upside down in their hedged activities.

And then we have the bank(s) requirement of MANDATORY HEDGING?? 320 and 339 sure appear like they might be resistance areas going forward.

The banks own them pure and simple and the 1.8 million or so ounces committed to future delivery at fixed prices makes this mine nothing more than contract 'minimum wage' slaves to the derivitives holders.

I've just briefly reviewed this "unaudited" (naturally) statement, and they's propbably more gems to be pulled out of this.

Pizz




USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(05/07/2002; 11:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75103)
Here to help.
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html


Why should YOU buy gold from Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.

1-800-869-5115

nickel62
(05/07/2002; 11:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75104)
Pizz
Thanks for the very good analysis of the Cambior hedge situation. Keep it coming.
TownCrier
(05/07/2002; 12:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75105)
FOMC Press Release -- May 7, 2002
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2002/20020507/default.htmThe Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent.

The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee confirms that economic activity has been receiving considerable upward impetus from a marked swing in inventory investment. Nonetheless, the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters, an essential element in sustained economic expansion, is still uncertain.

In these circumstances, although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.

Voting against the action: none.
Pizz
(05/07/2002; 12:41:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75106)
Media spin
Listening to Sam Stoval of Standard & Poors being interviewed on WebFn. He was asked if he thought that with the FED not increasing rates, should we not see money movement into areas that would benefit from a lower dollar.

His answer was "Oh, you mean like Gold?". And the announcer kind of stammered and said something to the effect of, no, gold has already moved up.

With a little luck, the rating agencies may be the only independent force out there willing to not play the game anymore. Hope I'm not dreamin'.

Pizz
Pizz
(05/07/2002; 12:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75107)
Correction to my post 75102
In my comments I refered to the marking to market of 11 billion and it should have been 11 million. Sorry, just used the wrong index finger on the keyboard.

Pizz
nickel62
(05/07/2002; 13:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75108)
Manipulation, Conspiracy Theories????Man that Bloomberg News Service is starting to sound like a gold Bug!!!
05/07 14:55
Dynegy, Traders Fall on Concern Over Market Tampering (Update1)
By Jim Polson


Houston, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Dynegy Inc. and other California power suppliers tumbled on concern an admission of market manipulation by Enron Corp. will broaden government inquiries, which may hurt profit, analysts said.

Dynegy plunged as much as 19 percent. Mirant Corp. and Calpine Corp., which have power plants in California, dropped as much as 14 percent.

Enron, once the biggest energy trader, drove California prices higher by creating and then `` `relieving' phantom congestion'' on the power grid, according to company memos released by federal energy regulators. California Senator Dianne Feinstein will ask the Justice Department to begin a criminal investigation of power sales, the Washington Post said.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ``is going to look at this, and they will broaden their look to include other companies,'' said RBC Dain Rauscher Inc. analyst Mark Easterbrook, who rates Dynegy ``outperform'' and owns some of the shares. ``The market is knocking down the stocks, and waiting for answers later.''

FERC is investigating whether California power sellers should refund as much as $1.5 billion after electricity prices soared in late 2000 and early last year.

Shares of Dynegy, based in Houston, fell $2.35, or 16 percent, to $12.50 in midafternoon trading after touching $12.01. They had fallen 72 percent in the past year.

Dynegy Postpones Conference

Dynegy postponed a two-day conference for analysts from late May to August in order for Chief Executive Officer Chuck Watson and other executives to meet with credit-rating services, spokesman John Sousa said.

Persuading Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Inc. to maintain Dynegy's investment-grade credit ``is our top priority,'' Sousa said.

Moody's has said it may cut Dynegy's credit rating, now its lowest investment grade, to junk.

Mirant, based in Atlanta, declined $1.43, or 13 percent, to $9.66. San Jose, California-based Calpine dropped 99 cents, or 10 percent, to $8.76.

Enron filed for bankruptcy in early December. It's facing more than a dozen investigations for inflating earnings and hiding debt.

YGM
(05/07/2002; 13:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75109)
Arcticfox (05/07/02; 04:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 75078)
Thank You ........That was the most enlightening look into the nether world I have ever read. Hopefully it will make (the article) a long journey around the Gold Traders desks via e-mail.....YGM.

PS:
I could easily believe Mr Sinclair may even have had a lunch or two with FOA & ANOTHER!

Go Gold, Go Physical & GO GATA >>>>
nickel62
(05/07/2002; 14:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75110)
Enron is the lit fuse that is going to open this bankster led market manipulation out into the open for the public to see!
The various scandels in the US have always been swept under the rug because too many of the politicos could keep the media and the sheeple under control. This time there are smoking guns and bleeding pensioners all over the place and no politican is going to be able to double talk his/her way out of this without having to face some furious investors/401K holders/voters come this fall. For the first time in a long time the sharks desire for blood is getting to the real criminals because they have no choice. It becomes US or them. The Democrats are trying to hang the blame on the Republicans and even the dumbest rock in the box can see that it is all of them. We live in interesting times, and maybe this time our media will have to keep covering it because the dumb beast of public opinion wants blood for being taken. Whether the grasshoppers in California or the now jobless and pensionless Anderson and Enron employees or the tens of millions of clueless NASDUCK and DOW/DOG investors, they are all awakening. Let the bloodletting begin. This tumor is going to really bleed.
sector
(05/07/2002; 14:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75111)
GATA Will Release a very big [Exclusive] story this evening
http://www.Lemetropolecafe.comAnd it's not the Barrick/AngloGold/GoldFields rumor.

It's about the bad guys.
Mr Gresham
(05/07/2002; 14:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75112)
HOF Nomination: miner49er (5/3/02; 06:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74821)
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/320025/default.htmlTrade Settlement in Malaysia - Old Wine in New Wineskins...?


I _knew_ there was a reason why I kept an Archive window open from Friday, and finally I got a chance to read down far enough to find it.

miner49er discusses Mahathir's ideas for gold use in trade settlement, compares it to Euro ideas, and considers much about currency timelines, a la FOA.

I still need to hear more about what the Euro-makers are trying to do, and how their currency will differ from the Dollar, other than avoiding a growing list of mistakes and abuses. miner49er is thinking along these lines and pointing us toward seeing it as more than the Un-Dollar (and if we encourage him ;-) , he'll write us more pieces like this one, I betcha!!! )
balzac
(05/07/2002; 14:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75113)
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS.
Bloomberg Headlines:" Productivity gains fastest in 19 years"

Why does Bloomberg print this propaganda?

Productivity can't really be measured except at the cost of human stress and suffering among the unemployed.

More BLS B.S.!!!

WHEN DOES THE PHONY CHEERLEADING STOP?
RobotGuy
(05/07/2002; 14:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75114)
Balzak
If they were really buying it, the market wouldn't have dropped back down today. I feel we're getting closer to getting through. We haven't heard too many anti-goldbug preachings lately have we! Why criticize something you are about to be, someone might remember!

Cheers!!
Siochain
(05/07/2002; 14:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75115)
Well ME PeaceChance is in jeoprady again
Large explosion tied to suicide bombing near TelAviv ....so far 15 reported killed...more than 30 injured...and it goes on and on....till....War
Graefin
(05/07/2002; 15:01:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75116)
Balzac: Productivity...
With unemployment running rampant and the threat of lay-offs, wouldn't you work harder??
- Gr�fin
Siochain
(05/07/2002; 15:21:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75117)
Bush
GWB is now giving joint press conference with Sharon....he truly looks like a deer caught in the headlights amd is clearly shook...his words are jumbled with no clarity.....all he keeps repeating is we all want peace...this is our Leader.....scary!
Aristotle
(05/07/2002; 15:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75118)
Stating the obvious
Thanks to the internet dissemination of non-traditional highly educational facilities exemplified by none better than USAGOLD, I can't imagine that there is anyone actively participating in any facet of the Gold market these days who isn't fully aware of the virility (for lack of a better word) of their investment choices.

The key to a brighter future is to be found in the process of continuing education for young and old alike. With new births every day, each generation must learn from zero, while for us older codgers, we know the world always changes today such that yesterday's knowledge is incrementally less applicable to tomorrow's events. I'd like to believe that it's because we're mindful toward building a better future for all that acts as the prime motivation for our vigorous give and take.

Whatever the reason, on that note, here's my latest contribution for the benefit of new arrivals, at the risk of boring the old timers.

Lots of people are (in the loose sense of the word) buying Gold these days. Just look at London's massive daily clearing numbers through the LBMA -- averaging over 500 tonnes each day throughout the latest reporting month. Wow!

(Yeah, yeah... I know it's old news to many of you.)

In New York, yesterday's trading volume of contracts through COMEX (ignoring options) ran nearly 80 tonnes, open interest hovering at 590 tonnes. Sure, there are other trading centers we could look at, but I'm trying to keep this brief. Hopefully, you get the idea that there are a lot of people "buying Gold."

But what are they paying for it? Or, more importantly, what are they, as a whole, ***getting*** for their money?

Since we're dealing with Gold, let's try to keep this in terms that are more familiar to the Gold industry as a means to help the newbies become gently introduced to the more complicated and less familiar world of finance.

So again, with all of this buying interest, what are they getting for their money?

Let's do an assay! As all refiners and miners know, the value of Gold ore (and ultimately the price that one might expect to pay or get paid for it) depends on the purity of the product. That is, "What amount of this product is the real Gold? What percent is worthless impurity?" A laboratory assessment, an assay, will answer that question.

If, for example, a one-hundred ounce lump of "Gold" assays at 2 percent pure Gold and 98% dross (garbage), then you should rightfully expect the market price of these 100-ounce lumps of "Gold" to be reflective of only the 2-ounce actual Gold content.

Imagine being among the lucky people who discovered that through a quirk in the market you could buy certain 100-ounce lumps that were priced by the market AS THOUGH they were 98 percent corrupt with impurities, and yet the 100-ounce item you could take delivery of at that discounted price was actually 100 ounces of fully refined full-bodied four-nines (.9999) Gold! Believe it or not, this is very nearly what happens when you pay the spot price for Gold and then claim the metal for personal safekeeping.

Trading statistics have shown that that vast majority of trading volume on formalized derivative instruments (such as the COMEX gold futures) are wholly paper trades independent of market connections to the physical underpinnings. Even before the explosion of market volumes through the mid and late 1990's, a study in 1993 familiar to Martin Mayer revealed that only 0.64% (scant more than half a percent) of all futures contracts were settled by physical delivery.

Additionally, here's a parallel that should get you thinking. In a study of the International Money Market , the Chicago Merc has estimated that due to the proliferation of customized Over-The-Counter arrangements, only 4% of all dollar volume of foreign exchange actually goes through standard futures and options instruments on the exchanges -- and yet they set the prices!

By extending this understanding to the trade occurring in the Gold market, much of the product being bought, sold, and traded is dominated by notional paper impurities, and the market price "per ounce" surely reflects this diluted assay. Only by taking delivery can you leverage your buying power because with each ounce you will be claiming pure Gold at a market price reflective of a highly impure specimen.

The actual role and importance of the pure Gold content within the entire "Gold" market becomes highly concentrated in your personal involvement in the market. Meanwhile, those who are complacent to hold just their leveraged paper proxies actually have NO GOLD AT ALL to show for their personal involvement in the aggregate market. In fact, they merely add to the dilution of the overall "assay" and functional price.

Maybe it will seem more compelling if I put it to you this way:

When looking at the aggregate Gold trade and its aggregate product, it is through their foolhardy purchase and acceptance of "just the impurities" in truly massive trading that actually underwrites your own ability to purchase and receive the "pure Gold portion" at the same low price Ounce per "ounce" as them. By all means, take advantage of their unintentional generosity!

Economically speaking with an eye to world events, these pathetic paper holders will likely see their own folly only during a critically important test "under fire" -- to assess the held specimen's value irrespective of price paid and promises made during its acquisition.

Such a critical assessment would reveal, for those with metallic Gold, a product that tested out and survived with the value of REAL Gold. For those with paper "Gold," their holdings would test out at 0.000, leaving the holder with a stark realization that he received none of the benefits or value of Gold for his money.

Gold. Get you some. Ching ching ching... piles and piles of coins. Wealth and liquidity for your future. --- Aristotle
Waverider
(05/07/2002; 16:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75119)
Gold's Best Performance Since 1993 Attracts Investors
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNg6dRXBR29sZCdzSnippit:(Bloomberg)

"Gold is having its best year since 1993, trading at two-year highs above $300 an ounce and providing investors with returns that outpace stocks and bonds.

Gold futures traded in New York have risen 12 percent this year. Prices are up 7.5 percent since mid-March, compared with a 7.3 percent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the same period. A prolonged slump in stock and bond markets might send gold above $400 an ounce for the first time since the 1987 stock market crash, some traders say."
USAGOLD
(05/07/2002; 16:39:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75120)
Anyone. . .
Do we have a credible read on how an oil embargo might affect Japan's banks? Any direct connection, in other words, between the health of Japanese banks and the MidEast crisis? Obviously, anything that would induce further Japanese private gold demand would be of interest. Any articles? Studies? Etc. Japan imports 100% of its oil. Add that to the fact, that my initial take on the Sharon meetings is that we have had a serious breakdown in the peace process. Hopefully, we haven't hit the wall, but what if we have?
Boilermaker
(05/07/2002; 18:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75121)
Japanese Energy Overview
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/japan.htmlMichael,
Here's a brief rundown of the Japanese energy mix. Clearly they are more dependent on imports on a percentage compared to the US but their relative energy efficiency helps to offset that disadvantage. Can't say how it affects the banking sector.

Japanese Energy

Japan lacks significant domestic sources of energy and must import substantial amounts of crude oil, natural gas, and other energy resources, including uranium for its nuclear power plants. In 1999, the country's dependence on imports for primary energy stood at more than 79%. Oil provided Japan with 52% of its total energy needs, coal 15%, nuclear power 15%, natural gas 13%, hydroelectric power 4%, and renewable sources 1.3%. About half of Japan's energy is used by industry and about one-fourth by transportation, with nearly all the rest used by the residential, agricultural, and service sectors. Japan's energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) is among the lowest in the developed world.

OIL
Japan contains almost no oil reserves of its own (59 million barrels of proven oil reserves), but is the world's second largest oil consumer (after the United States). In 2001, Japan consumed an estimated 5.44 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, down from 5.53 million bbl/d in 2000. Most (75%-80%) of this oil came from OPEC, particularly Persian Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran. Japan has worked -- with relatively little success -- to diversify its oil import sources away from the Middle East. Another oil supplier to Japan is China, which, while it is a net oil importer, supplies light oil from its Daqing field for use in Japanese power plants. Until 1996, when Japan's oil consumption peaked at nearly 5.9 million bbl/d, Japanese oil consumption (and imports) had been growing steadily for years. After 1997, Japan's oil consumption declined as its economic slump caused demand by industrial and other users to decline.

mikal
(05/07/2002; 18:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75122)
@USAGOLD Re: Oil Embargo
@USAGOLD "the affect on Japanese banks"- That could be the lynchpin in a new physical gold market. Such an embargo would devastate Nippon industries, leaving waves of debt defaults and bank failures mitigated only by repatriation of US dollar holdings, and sale of US equities, bonds, real estate, and/or factories. The dollar affects would be direct and indirect, worldwide, impacting every aspect of commerce and industry.
slingshot
(05/07/2002; 18:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75123)
Silver
Poor Mans GoldThe POG has been holding its own and I believe some of the attention has overflowed into the physical buying of silver.
Today at the coin dealer I asked for 100 ozs in silver. He
then asked his assistant if he had 100ozs. of silver. There was some discussion which contained phrases like "I don't know" and "We sold a large amount lately". I was looking at the, you snooze, you loose syndrome. Yet they managed to fill my order. I asked the coin dealer how was his sales in silver.
He stated that the average sales is between 100 and 300 ozs.
and sales are getting heavier.

Guess the buyers are beating the tax below $500.00 sales.
To note, I remember when a large sale was 20 to 30 ozs.
Yes, his premium was slightly higher.

Just had to smile on the ride home. :)

Slingshot
R Powell
(05/07/2002; 18:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75124)
Middle East Peace?
A serious breakdown in the peace process?
Michael, this implies that some progress or hope of progress preceeded the breakdown. Other than the politics of pomp and circumstance or the ongoing verbal assurances by both sides that each is guiltless and each wants peace, was anything at all accomplished that could breakdown?
With any measureable degree of honesty, both sides would vocalize spit and venom at the other that would make a viper envious. At the risk of sounding callous, perhaps a no holds barred war would create enough misery so that both sides would come to welcome and appreciate peace enough to accept that peace requires compromise and commitment. Both sides have legimate grievances and pain but neither side apparently has traveled far enough beyond feelings of indignation, righteous hatred and religious fervor to approach the effort necessary for peace (co-existance). Imagine there's no heaven.....I wish there were no religions. I imagine that the good Lord wishes the same.
Rich
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 18:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75125)
Moscow bans foreigners from visiting resource-rich regions


Moscow (dpa) - In a revisitation of Soviet-era restrictions on foreigners' movements, the Russian government imposed a travel ban on another "strategically important" region in the country's resource- rich north, the Itar-Tass news agency reported Tuesday.

The upper part of the Yamal-Nenets region is now only accessible to foreigners with special permission from the FSB Federal Security Service. The area holds some of Russia's largest oil and gas fields. The measure follows a similar ban imposed last November to the nickel-producing town of Norilsk in the Arctic circle. Local airlines may no longer sell foreigners tickets to these areas without FSB approval.

Russia has become increasingly sensitive about access to its natural resources. Last month the government also classified information about the country's reserves of crude oil and some rare metals as a state secret. Revealing state secrets carries up to four years imprisonment.


Black Blade: This is interesting news. Note that Russia has been buying its own Gold production for central bank reserves for some time now, the PGM stockpiles are depleted and deliveries to western markets are sporadic at best, and the Caspian Sea oil production has not lived up to expectations. Something is going on. I emailed a couple of my contacts to see if they know what's going on. I haven't heard back yet, though my friend Sergei has been saying that the PGM stockpiles were raided during the 1998 Russian Bond default for "hard currency" and all subsequent deliveries have been from currnt production at Norilsk Nickel and other smaller by-product operations.
YGM
(05/07/2002; 18:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75126)
JP Morgan Chase.......
Sounds like they're toast.......I'm not sure if I can post lemetropolecafe link here so I'll wait for GATA email release....This "IS SOME STORY" Morgan is way under water w/ Gold Shorts.....Ya Hoo!
More vindication for GATA supporters and believers!
Cavan Man
(05/07/2002; 18:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75127)
R Powell
No, The Lord wishes we would practice what we preach. "Religion" is not the problem; people are who are unknowingly in league with satan. "Religion", especially the Christian "religion" is the answer. It is ALL summed up thusly:

1. Love God.
2. Love your neighbor.

#1 and #2 cover everything--everything.
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 18:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75128)
Post Office to Cut 8,000 More Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=703&e=9&u=/ap/20020507/ap_on_go_ot/postal_finances_2
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - More than 8,000 additional full-time jobs will be cut by the Postal Service this year as the agency struggles to contain its losses in the face of declining business.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows. I work to help out the Post Office myself. When I get "junk mail" with a postage paid return envelope I write a "no thanks" on the insert and then I cram as much weighty junk into the envelope as possible. This way the offending mailer has to pay for the postage (and therefore helping out the cash-strapped Post Office) and I get rid of a lot of garbage. Also, those cards for subscriptions, junk, etc. I just send those in to with a return address to some local politician, city official or local police officer at their place of work. This also helps out the Post Office as they not only get paid by the offending mailer, but the offending mailer gets to pay to mail out more junk to someone else. Hey, I am only doing my part to give the Post Office a helping hand. So pull together now and help keep a mailman emplyed.

Canuck
(05/07/2002; 18:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75129)
@ YGM, sector,all
As a preamble to the GATA release forthcoming this evening I draw attention to Cabal_Breaker's 20:02 message over at G-E.

Tks to CB
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 18:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75130)
Office vacancy climbs to 19%
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/3213127.htm
Snippit:

Bay Area commercial real estate has continued to nose-dive this year, logging the highest office vacancy rates in more than a decade and causing rents to slide steeply. The overall office vacancy rate reached 19 percent in the first quarter of 2002 -- higher than during the 1990-91 recession, according to a report by BT Commercial Real Estate.


Black Blade: Economic recovery eh? Hmmm�

Arcticfox
(05/07/2002; 19:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75131)
Jim Sinclair mentioned here again...
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=DROOY&read=9977I hope it's alright to send readers to this site. I think the read may be worth it.
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 19:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75132)
The Glitter of Gold
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29693082&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

Gold is more interesting today than it has been at any time since the late '70s, when it was allowed to trade freely again in the United States. Back then (1977, to be precise), it started at $75. The gold bug crew made a strong case that it was worth $300 an ounce. Instead, the metal blasted through $300 and peaked at $800, when it made the cover of Money magazine.

Back then, the fear behind the rise was galloping inflation, the prospect of Saudi Arabia buying everything on the New York Stock Exchange (no kidding, someone calculated how long it would take), and worries there would be no recycling of the billions of "petrodollars" we exported in exchange for OPEC oil.

Today, the fears are different, but related. Here are the pillars that support the case for gold:

Gold production is sagging while demand is rising.

Central banks have sold about as much gold as they dare sell.

A rising supply of dollars in foreign hands.

A trade deficit that won't go away.

The dollar is overvalued.

Gold is the alternative to the dollar: the euro and the yen don't qualify.

Low real rates of interest.

Global financial weakness and worry.

While gold has traditionally been a haven in times of angst, we've been through all kinds miserable events in the last 20 years, and gold has neither spiked nor soared. Until recently.

Now, gold is over $300, and people are buying once again. Japanese families are buying. The Chinese government is buying. And you can bet it is still being accumulated in the Middle East.

Put it all together and a good case can be made for $500-an-ounce gold, with plenty of room for a major anxiety spike. My favorite rule of thumb is called the "good man's suit" rule -- an ounce of gold should be enough to buy a good man's suit. By that measure, gold should be selling at more than $600. It could easily be twice that, without considering Oxxford or Brioni.


Black Blade: The tide has turned and Gold is just about the only sector left as this economy "recovers" (according to Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls).

R Powell
(05/07/2002; 19:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75133)
Cavan Man
Reread your post and note your use of the word "especially". This is part of the problem.
I have no problem with most humanitarian teachings of most religions. They are quite similar.
Religion, as manifested in harmful actions and as the justification for these is what I object to.
Has there ever been a soldier in any war, at any time who didn't have at least one god on his side? For god and country! Any god and every country.
I'll let you have the last word after this as I'm off topic other than saying that IMHO there will be no lasting peace or secure oil source in our time. In this regard, safe haven for wealth storage will be a lasting issue. Why would anyone want to hold dollars in the middle-east?
Rich
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 19:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75134)
Jittery investors spur gold to new highs
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/05/07/rtr593865.html
Snippit:

LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to its highest in more than two years on Tuesday as the dollar floundered and the outlook for equity markets appeared grim, sending investors scrambling for a haven for their cash. A weaker dollar and faltering U.S. stock markets had restored gold's role as a haven in times of trouble, traders said. "While the U.S dollar remains weak, it is hard to see gold correcting," said John Reade, analyst at UBS Warburg. The dollar hit fresh two-month lows against the yen and seven-month troughs on both the euro and Swiss franc on Tuesday.

The dollar was weighed down in part by a sell-off on Wall Street overnight, triggered by a dismal economic and earnings outlook and expectations the Federal Reserve would not lift interest rates at its policy meeting today. A weak U.S. currency makes gold cheaper for overseas investors and jewellery makers and less attractive in local terms for foreign gold mining companies to sell. "Investors appear more concerned with finding a safe haven for their wealth given the prevailing volatile political situation in the Middle East and uncertainty in the financial markets," Standard Bank's London metals team said in a report.


Black Blade: Looks good for Gold.
Cavan Man
(05/07/2002; 19:32:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75135)
Hey Rich
Those harmful actions are corruption; get it? Good luck with your beliefs. I don't know about you but I am going to need it (luck). Right on with your thoughts and shalom...CM
YGM
(05/07/2002; 19:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75136)
Excerpt from MIDAS Report @ the Cafe.......JP Morgan Chase etc.
Everyone knows how to get there I'm sure........***Here's hoping this doesn't get me in trouble, but my excitement is too much to bear....This is part of the Cartel that cost me $350K & a wife....So s---- Them...

Excerpt...


J.P. Morgan Chase Gold Department In Serious Trouble

This morning I received a phone call from the best of sources in South Africa. The source has a friend who spent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chase senior bankers. The friend was told by the Morgan people that they have "lost control of the gold market and that the gold derivative department was a mess." The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P. Morgan Chase (the bank itself) might not make it through the year. They suggested my source buy $330 Feb gold calls.

Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my source received the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of The Gold Cartel bullion banks:

*There is an investigation now being conducted on the gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase.

*The man who ran the department was fired.

*This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was called "still a rumor" by the CNBC host.

*It appears the conspiracy guys were right all along.

A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that the man who ran Morgan's gold derivative department had indeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?

Subsequently, another outstanding source informs me he hears Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts when Reg Howe revealed their OCC gold derivative position a couple of years ago. He called in his accountants, etc, to find out how that happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis document. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell and I presented that document to the Speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. Then, I delivered it to every member of the House and Senate banking committees the following day.

Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we had to say.

This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and Jim Sinclair have alerted Caf� members to:

*The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.

*A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.

*Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.

*The price of gold is going to explode.

*There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.

The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets and the Fed must all be in a state of sheer panic over gold. There is a feeling by some in the GATA camp that they will orchestrate a massive bailout - like request the IMF to sell their gold. Anything is possible, but to do anything now might be sheer folly and tip their hand that GATA was right all along. Why should anyone care if gold goes to $400 or $500, much less $350? All that would do is be a boon for the sub-Saharan Africa, a bonanza for their economies. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's credibility is very good in Africa. If The Gold Cartel comes up with some trumped up reason to sell gold, I shall try and see some of the leaders of the gold producing countries and point out what has been done to them and why. I shall refocus their attention on the following matter (courtesy of the Charleston Voice):

"GO GATA" "GO GATA" "GO GATA" & GO PHYSICAL!!!!!
BUY ALL CPM'S GOLD & LEAVE NONE FOR THE CROOKS!
Chris Powell
(05/07/2002; 19:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75138)
Morgan's gold derivatives department has lost control
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099Morgan Chase gold derivatives department's loss
of control of the gold price is threatening the
entire banking house.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
YGM
(05/07/2002; 19:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75139)
View Entire GATA Email Re: Morgan @ Link
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099I should have waited 5 more min....Sorry for losin my cool here....YGM.
Siochain
(05/07/2002; 19:50:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75140)
@USAGOLD Re: Oil Embargo
I would concur with the previous posts re negative impact of oil embargo. Although my last trip to Japan was four years ago, oil concerns were still high on their fear list.

Additionally, doing the roaring years of Japan economy when they thought they were becoming Economic Power #1, banks pursued offering very high risk loans with little to no collateral.....potential for growth was the criteria.

This practice later hit the banks hard as many of these companies later folded as the economy softened....yet from what I understand the banks still sought to keep up their loan portfolios with even higher risks....a nasty spiral.

Should an embargo impact Japan's industries, there is little doubt in my mind that will push many more companies to bankruptcy and the banks in turn

One curious thought though is whether any US or foreign banks are getting involved with their Japanese counterparts

I mentioned awhile ago that one of my very close relatives has put together some very lucrative takeovers of Japanese Insurance Companies

I asked him tonight if banks were also doing so though he didn't know specifically ....he said he wouldn't be surprised since Japan was desperate and was offering some sweetheart deals.

My reason for raising the question of whether US Banks are getting involved in Japan banking would be a possible double whammy should Japan sink....though if they are...I'd love to see the deals made

Though IMO, if push comes to shove, I would expect that Japan would willing make any deal including getting rid of US notes in order to secure oil
YGM
(05/07/2002; 19:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75141)
I'm Still Doing My Part..... (even if it is repititious)
Sending the GATA E-mail and James Sinclairs Article......to every doggoned bullion traders/media desk on my mailing list.....And it's a long list!!!!

& Thanks to Arcticfox for the heads up on that article too!

Getting even does and always will have a measure of satisfaction, no matter how small the payday....7 years I've waited for the derivatives trade to collapse. What's another few months?
USAGOLD
(05/07/2002; 20:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75142)
YGM. . .All. . .
When I said a few months ago that we were "one Enron away from the greatest gold bull market in history," I meant it. Who did I have in mind as that "one Enron?" JP Morgan and Dinsa Mehta. If this information is correct (and there's enough smoke blowing around the gold market to think that it just might be), this is the biggest development for gold in a long time. I believe that JPMorgan and Dinsa Mehta were at the center of the derivatives programs aimed at keeping a lid on the gold market. If Bill Murphy's sources are correct -- if we indeed are looking at the possible collapse of the JP Morgan gold department and the bank itself -- this has substantial implications for the gold market but Wall Street itself. We need verification of this news. Perhaps a call to Mr. Mehta at Morgan/Chase is in order. It would be interesting to settle the question whether or not he's still on the job. If he has indeed lost his job, it might explain the wild scramble going on behind the scenes in the gold market -- the hedge buy-backs, the merger rumors, indeed to some of us, the palpable smell of fear. It would also explain gold moving as it has without visible opposition. As for the short side of the gold market, it may have come down to every man for himself. If so, once the hedge funds get the smell of blood in the water, you could very well see gold move up $100, $200 in a blink. And, too, if JP Morgan and Mehta are out of the game, the wild scramble will begin for physical gold -- the newly Holy Grail for the gold world. Another and FOA are going to proven correct, my friends, and this is not hyperbole or a sales pitch. . . . ..
Arcticfox
(05/07/2002; 20:10:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75143)
So much for free markets...check out this graph tonight!
http://www.astrikos.com/public/japan.htmlWhere will it end when you have a situation where you have a government propping up their domestic markets, increasing their money supply by 50% in two months and promoting a week currency to export deflation to a country with a 30% overvalued currency which will soon be approaching a 6% trade deficit? Gotta "luv" Au...
Canuck
(05/07/2002; 20:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75144)
Enron memos reveal plans
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam%2Fsearch%2Ftgam%2FSearchFullStory2.html&cf=tgam%2Fsearch%2Ftgam%2FSearchFullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam%2Fconfig&encoded_keywords=enron&option=☆t_row=5¤t_row=5☆t_row_offset1=0&search_results_start=1#_rows=1The memos FERC obtained and released yesterday detail strategies such as "Inc-ing," in which Enron would submit unrealistic trading schedules to create "phantom congestion" on the power grid administered by the California Independent System Operator (ISO).

Enron would receive payments from the ISO to relieve the phantom congestion the company's traders had created. The memos also discuss a strategy known as "Death Star," in which Enron would receive payments from the ISO "to relieve congestion without actually moving any energy or relieving any congestion," FERC said.

The memos also discuss Enron's strategy for "laundering" electricity to avoid the power price caps in the electricity spot markets administered by the ISO and the now-defunct California Power Exchange.

The megawatt-laundering, which Enron called "ricocheting," involved moving power out of California to neighbouring states where the price caps didn't apply, and then reselling that power back into the California ISO at prices above the cap that applied only to in-state transactions.

Other strategies had colourful names such as "Get Shorty" and "Fat Boy," which, along with the "Death Star" strategy, sound eerily akin to the names Enron gave its questionable off-the-balance-sheet partnerships that forced the company into bankruptcy late last year.

slingshot
(05/07/2002; 20:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75145)
Seige Engine
Gold to DA MOOOOONAfter a day and a half of bombardment to his refuge ,the Lord of the castle wanted to look at the damage being inflicted. He was confident his fortress would withstand the assault for some time untill he peered over the wall. What he saw was a flaw in the construction The builders had made it thick by building two thin walls and filling the space between them with discarded material. As long as the outer remained intact the fill stayed in place. Now, as the Goldbugs and their machine have pierced the outer part of the wall, the fill is pouring out making a ramp even before the tower falls. He knows now time is short and calls his Knights to plan his defense.
Pizz
(05/07/2002; 20:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75146)
JPM
Now I know why JPM puts were unusually strong today.

Might be a bit interesting in the morning.

Pizz
sector
(05/07/2002; 20:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75147)
Leonard Kaplan...A Babbling Brook of Wierdness
The Prospector Report May 5"...We are also seeing that the old-time investors in gold are actually selling into this rally, and not much physical buying is occurring. When investor interest in physical gold is high, premiums on gold coins rise. Even as gold continues to make 2-year highs, premiums on gold coins such as US Eagles remain quite low and well below replacement costs at the US Mint. Perhaps even a better example is the sad case of US $20 Liberty Head gold coins in XF/AU condition (slightly circulated). These numismatic coins, which were minted from the 1850's to 1907 (now almost at least 100 years old), are trading in the market for just $15 to $25 USD (each coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold) above their precious metal melt content, probably as low a premium as has been seen since the 1970's. This fact would certainly infer that "old-time" investors are selling as new investors are buying. But the new investors are seeking investment venues with greater transparency, greater leverage, and greater security, and are shunning the old investment vehicles such as coins.

I would expect that this trend will continue, to the financial detriment of those owners of physical gold coins and bars. I urge readers of this commentary, who hold physical coins, to call our offices (afternoons are best) for a discussion of possible strategies to avoid further losses. Historically, on many sharp gold rallies, such coins have traded at or below spot, and if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. ..."
+++++++++++++++++++++++
What is this bozo talking about? Did I miss something?
I bought some American Eagles in the fall at a delivered price of $280 The margin has risen to at least 3% since and of course there's the pog at $312. I think of it as undeveloped real estate in a prime area�an emergency fuel supply should the incompetent government do what we all know they are going to do.

Occasionally Kaplan makes a modicum of sense when speaking about bullion bank matters...then this latest rant comes along.

He speaks of transparency in COMEX paper? Who are the COMEX longs, by name? The TOCOM lists them for all to see. For example anyone can see that Mitsui, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi are all short gold in open interest by 96% to 99% of all contracts and all have been that way for years. Nobody stakes out lop-sided futures position like these without an official backer...most likely the BOJ. Get rich in COMEX gold futures�buy from Leonard�none of that untrustworthy physical�there's no leverage.

So the learned Mr. Kaplan wishes us to believe that the paper COMEX is as good as the real thing in hand...as if the TOCOM really DIDN'T default a few years back on it's platinum contracts. More than a few people have suggested that the COMEX will default on its gold contracts when it becomes clear that the shorts [Read JPM, Goldman Sachs et, al.] don't HAVE the gold. But don't worry� one will receive perfectly good paper from the COMEX�less a bit of leverage, of course.

Kaplan might as well wear a cardboard sandwich for the cabal. What a worthless shill.
sector
(05/07/2002; 20:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75148)
@slingshot...About the seige engine
It's called a trebuchet...and it works a little like your handle throwing a 250 pound stone ball 800 feet.eom
mikal
(05/07/2002; 20:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75149)
@Slingshot Re: Siege
ROFLMAO! Encore! Encore! Silver Feather gazed upward, her attention fixed on the golden pall radiating from the rising moon. This is a special juncture, she knew, occurring only when the elements are at a peak of harmony. The wolves howls seemed to rise in tandem, calling "TOOoo DAAaa MOOoon" She drew her slingshot from its sheath, and let the moonlight fall upon it, singing, and rejoicing.
slingshot
(05/07/2002; 20:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75150)
sector
trebuchetThank you sector. Yes truly a marvel of its time. I just could not remember the name.
Two designs were one with a solid counterbalance mostly made of lead. The other design had a wooden basket or box.
Range and accuracy determined by adding or decreasing weight to counterbalance'size of projectile(stone) or adjusting lenght of the sling.Not a nice thing to see if you lived in a castle.

I'm going to have to write that down.;O)
Thanks again
Slingshot
Arcticfox
(05/07/2002; 20:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75151)
And so it continues... I wonder what Sharon's response will be??
WASHINGTON (AP) - Hurrying home after a suicide attack killed more than a dozen people in Israel, an enraged Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon declared Tuesday there was no way to move forward on Mideast peace with a Palestinian Authority that he called a "terrorist and corrupt entity."
Sharon, cutting short his visit to Washington after the attack, vowed to keep up Israel's campaign to stop Palestinian terror attacks.

"Our work is not done," he declared. "The battle continues and will continue until all those who believe that they can make gains through the use of terrorism will cease to exist - cease to exist," the prime minister declared in a hastily called news conference before leaving for Israel.

Without mentioning Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat by name, a bitter Sharon declared that the attack provided "proof of the true intentions of the person leading the Palestinian Authority." Sharon has been resisting entreaties from President Bush to negotiate with Arafat to get the Arab-Israeli peace process on track.

Sharon, who learned of the bombing during an Oval Office meeting with Bush, declared over and over that those who support or fund or perpetrate terrorism are "guilty, guilty." Earlier in Sharon's visit to Washington, the Israeli government presented U.S. officials with a dossier laying out what it said was evidence that Arafat was a sponsor of terrorism against Israel, a charge the Palestinians denied.

"Israel will not surrender to blackmail," Sharon declared. "Israel will not surrender to blackmail."

He said the Israeli military offensive against militants in Palestinian towns and villages had made great strides in rooting out the terrorist infrastructure but that the job clearly was not done.

"He who rises up to kill us, we will pre-empt and kill him first," he said.

Sharon, speaking first in Hebrew and then in English, said he was departing for Israel "with a heavy heart - heavy with grief and heavy with rage."

He said it was "the rage of each and every Jew in the world."

The address was carried live on television in both Israel and the United States.

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAEHMNKY0D.html
Aristotle
(05/07/2002; 20:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75152)
Sector on Kaplan
The best take on Kaplan's comments that I've yet to hear were posted in the small hours of today.

And�ril (05/07/02; 01:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 75071)

I think his point is well made. These are the words of a dying man.

If indeed the Gold chapter of JP Morgan's derivatives book goes down in flame, what do you think that will do to the confidence in counterparty performance not just the OTC Gold derivatives, but the exchange-traded COMEX ones as well?

Would anyone in their right mind be a buyer of COMEX futures???! Can a market survive under conditions of ASK/NO BID? No... I thought not.

Real Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
slingshot
(05/07/2002; 21:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75153)
sector
Just one more laughI drew a picture of a trebuchet before I knew what it was called and went around asking, Do you know what this is called? My favorite answer. I don't know, what is it?

Good Night All
Slingshot-------------<>
YGM
(05/07/2002; 21:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75154)
The Fortress Of CPM Castle.....
Is a Bastion of Wisdom & Sanity.........And although I never brought much wisdom to the tables I've gained much, "AND" if it were not for these halls and the priviledge of roaring out my rants of indignation and outrage amongst those who educated and calmed such as I, then I fear my sanity might have been questionable...As it stands I owe more than one could ever hope to repay by thanks alone....What a good day this was, as they have been of late and shall continue to be in future. We are prepared to face the future as few percieve it to be....

Many here will look back on this adventure many years hence and be wistful of past challenges met and battles fought and won......This is just another time and chapter in the great history book of GOLD!.....YGM

balzac
(05/07/2002; 22:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75155)
As Butch Cassidy said" Who are those guys?"
RE: J Sinclair's essay.Can anyone tell me if Hung Fat & Dr. NO exsist in something

Other than Nom de PLume? Or we merely watching fiction?

Who are those Guys??

Balzac
Black Blade
(05/07/2002; 23:06:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75156)
New Coalition, Citing Natural Gas Reserve Report, Warns of Supply Crunch Due To Unwarranted Price Volatility
http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/comtex/2002/05/07/pr/0000-1225-dc-coalition-supply
Snippit:

"We all must be very careful not to fall into a false sense of security; as a result of unwarranted price volatility, U.S. gas supplies are very much at risk," said Arthur Corbin, president of the Coalition for Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (EMIT) and president and general manager of the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia. "A careful reading of the AGA report reveals that the top 30 companies that hold half of U.S. natural gas reserves did not add enough reserves in 2001 to replace production, even though the average price they received for their gas was over $4.00 per thousand cubic feet, well above historical averages."

Private investment banker and energy industry analyst Matthew R. Simmons, Chairman and President of Simmons & Company International, cautioned that the AGA report "could create a very false sense that things are well in natural gas just as the country's daily supply is poised to drop by what could be a genuinely tragic surprise."

Simmons said, "Every American should now be aware that the exploration and production industry embarked on the greatest drilling boom for more gas supplies in U.S. history during 2000 and 2001, shattering the prior record of gas wells completed in 1981 by over 1,000 more wells -- yet daily gas supply stayed flat. The drilling boom peaked at the end of last summer. Drilling for gas has now dropped 45 percent, which is just starting to be felt in daily gas production. By the time the country experiences the full impact of this drilling collapse, daily supplies could drop by 10 percent or higher."


Black Blade: We will likely see an energy supply crunch late this year or early next year. Reserves are not being replenished. No economic recovery this year.

goldquest
(05/07/2002; 23:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75157)
Worth a re-read
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/howederivatives.htmlJPM should have heeded this commentary back then!
Goldfly
(05/07/2002; 23:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75158)
Golly, this was interesting...
http://www.nymex.com/rulebook/6.htm#09Rule 6.09. MAXIMUM PRICE VARIATIONS

The Board may provide, at any time, by Rule or resolution that there shall be no trading during any one business day or trading session day in any commodity for futures delivery in any specified month or months at prices more than a fixed limit above or below the settlement price for the preceding business day. At the discretion of the Board, any limitation provided in this Rule �6.09 may be changed or suspended or temporarily modified from time to time and without prior notice. Trading in options contracts shall not be subject to price fluctuation limitations.
Goldfly
(05/07/2002; 23:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75159)
Hmmmm.... This too.
http://www.nymex.com/markets/cont_all.cfm?CID=15&cont_name=specsThis part:

Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation
Futures: Initial price limit, based upon the preceding day's settlement price is $75 per ounce. Two minutes after either of the two most active months trades at the limit, trades in all months of futures and options will cease for a 15-minute period. Trading will also cease if either of the two active months is bid at the upper limit or offered at the lower limit for two minutes without trading.

Trading will not cease if the limit is reached during the final 20 minutes of a day's trading. If the limit is reached during the final half hour of trading, trading will resume no later than 10 minutes before the normal closing time.

When trading resumes after a cessation of trading, the price limits will be expanded by increments of 100%.

Options: No price limits.

Goldfly
(05/07/2002; 23:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75160)
But what about spot?
Anyway according to my calculations, a gold futures contract could close at not quite $5 million/ounce tomorrow.



Oooh. That's making my scalp tingly.
Waverider
(05/08/2002; 00:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75161)
Silver Lease Rates
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.htmlLittle discussion lately re: silver but it looks worthwhile to keep an eye on the lease rates which have edged up since Friday.
Spartacus
(05/08/2002; 00:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75162)
New bear leg underway
http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=5014By Charlie Minter

Signaling continued weakness, the market was unable to hold onto its early gains despite the biggest increase in quarterly productivity in 19 years and a widely expected no-decision from the Fed. Productivity numbers are notoriously unreliable to begin with, and the current improvement was helped significantly by the massive layoffs of the past two years. In addition the government is overly generous in the way it calculates quality improvements. For instance, a PC with ten times the speed, memory and drive of one made five years ago is considered to be ten times more productive. That helps explain why first quarter output, according to the productivity calculation, increased at an annual rate of 6.5% at a time when year-to-year revenues of the S&P 500 decreased about 6%. We can't help thinking that the difference between these two numbers needs some explaining.
----
The problem for this highly overvalued market is that a tightening is viewed with great pessimism, while a continuation of the present monetary policy is made possible only by more economic weakness that will also be disappointing. We believe that the market has nowhere to go but down, and it looks as if that is happening now.





Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 01:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75163)
Events Raise Nuclear Safety Questions
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020507/ap_on_re_us/reactor_worries_6
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Severe cracks found at one nuclear power reactor and the stunning discovery of a hole that nearly breached the six-inch steel dome of another facility are raising new questions about aging nuclear plants and whether they are being inspected closely enough. The hole that went through most of the heavy reactor cover of the Davis-Besse power plant in Ohio and the severity of cracks found about a year earlier at a reactor in South Carolina surprised federal safety regulators and the industry.

Only a thin noncorrosive stainless steel membrane kept the hole at the Ohio reactor from bursting open. And nuclear experts say if the cracks at the Oconee plant had been allowed to continue, the nozzle might have separated. In both cases, thousands of gallons of radioactive water would have escaped from the reactor, raising the risk of the core's radioactive fuel overheating and � in a worst-case scenario � possibly a meltdown and a release of radiation from the larger concrete containment building.



Black Blade: There are 68 other nuclear facilities of similar design.

Spartacus
(05/08/2002; 01:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75164)
Tax Refund Checks
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-000032345may07.story?coll=la-headlines-nation-manual
ST. LOUIS -- The budget deficit is huge. Tax collection has been unexpectedly skimpy. And the treasury is all but tapped out.

So the state of Missouri has stopped sending out income tax refunds. And there are no plans to put the checks in the mail any time soon.

State officials have told 415,500 taxpayers that their refund checks--worth a total of $167 million--are on indefinite hold because of an extreme cash flow crisis. "We really don't know how long it will be," budget director Brian Long said. The move announced late last week is extreme. Illinois has delayed refund payments a week or two because of a cash flow crunch. And Alabama has put off paying most corporate tax refunds until the economy rebounds. But several national experts on state finances said Missouri appears to be alone in cutting off personal income tax refunds.
-----
If the refund checks are delayed past Aug. 15, the state will owe taxpayers interest at the rate of 6% a year. But that's small consolation to the families who were counting on their money now, to pay off credit card bills or remodel a bathroom or cover a summer vacation.

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 01:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75165)
Providian Cuts 2,600 Jobs, Stock Rises
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020507/earns_providian_2.htmlProvidian Stock Rises Almost 9 Percent After Announcement of Job Cuts

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Shares in Providian Financial Corp. gained nearly 9 percent Tuesday, a day after the company announced more job cuts. The credit card issuer expects to dump nearly 2,600 workers this year as a new management team continues to dig out from loan losses that nearly buried the company last year.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 01:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75166)
Textron Says Job Cuts To Reach 7,300 Amid Restructuring
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020507/200205071555000778_1.htmlSnippit:

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Textron Inc. (TXT) said it expects its job cuts will total 7,300, excluding the Automotive Trim unit, as a result of the company's restructuring.


Black Blade: Yep, more "Bones" shuffle off to the growing "Bone Pile" and plants shut down.

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 02:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75167)
Rocky Mountain methane opens new US energy fight
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020507/energy_rockies_gas_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, May 7 (Reuters) - Environmentalists and the U.S. energy industry are pitching their tents over Rocky Mountain gas fields, each camp preparing for the next battle over where to secure the nation's energy supplies. Since the Senate in April extended a ban on drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), at the core of the Bush administration's energy policy, the focus has shifted to vast gas resources trapped in coal seams under the Rockies.

As conservationists and supporters of energy independence square off, two federal agencies have already thrown up roadblocks to tapping that gas -- much of it tucked away on federal land in some of the nation's most scenic terrain. "I think you can see the debate shifting now. And these recent decisions could be a major setback to future (energy) development in the Rockies," Charles Mankin, director of the Oklahoma Geological Survey, told Reuters. "If that happens it's going to be much more difficult to meet this country's growing energy needs," he said.

The Rockies' role in meeting U.S. energy demand is raised by the nation's growing use of natural gas, which industry analysts predict will fuel most of the country's new power plants and heat most of its new homes for the next decade. Geologists estimate about 346 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable gas lie under the surface of the Rocky Mountain states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. The Interior Department is expected to decide by November whether to make changes to its environmental impact report.


Black Blade: Of course by November it's too late to offset an energy crisis late this year. Environmentalists stopped ANWR, they will likely stop the Rocky Mtn petroleum projects, and they stated they will next move on to stop new leases offshore. We are likely facing an energy crisis of epic proportions or else get used to an emergency massive build up of coal-fired power plants and emergency issue of "carbon credits". It will look especially grim for California. Of course Sec. Gail Norton of the Dept. of Interior could just overide the EPA decision regardless of Sec. Christine Whitman (cat fight? - Hmmm...). "Interesting Times"

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 02:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75168)
S. Africa May Close Unsafe Mines After Deaths Rise
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=APNd3thUkUy4gQWZy
Snippit:

Johannesburg, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's mine safety regulator said it may close down unsafe mines after 91 workers died in the country's mines in the first quarter, an average of one a day, Business Report said, citing a study by the department of mineral and energy affairs


Black Blade: If they do shut down those mines, then that is less supply to market. However, mining is critical to the SA economy.

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 03:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75169)
Market Indices Scream Higher, USD Higher, Petroleum Higher, ....Uh Oh - Gold Lower
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
The market indices are rocketing higher on Cisco's "Home Run" earnings of 11 cents a share (Pro Forma of course). The net is listed as 10 cents, though that does not accout for a number of costs including employee options, etc. The DOW Futures are up over 110 pts., the NASDAQ Futures are up about 30 pts., and the S&P 500 Futures are up about 12. The CNBC anchors are calling it the "Cisco effect". Looks like blast off for the markets at the open if these numbers hold.


Another suicide bomber detonated in Israel this morning (the second one in 12 hours). This may have an effect on petroleum as NY Crude is up at $27.00/bbl and NG at $3.75 Mbtu. The USD is charging ahead while other major currencies are crumbling apart (the Euro is close to falling below 90 cents). Gold appears to be unable to hold up this morning and is lower about a dollar.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 03:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75170)
Productivity � All And Nothing
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=07052002-021719-9582r
Snippit:

In theory, high productivity growth is very good news. Firms are producing more per worker. Their labor costs are therefore kept in check, and they will be more profitable. And they can keep the prices of their goods flat, so that inflation need not rise. In recent years Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has often pointed to high productivity growth in the United States and expressed his confidence in future economic prospects because of it.

But more recently, Greenspan and others have started to get more skeptical. "The numbers look just too large to be credible," Greenspan said earlier this year. The question is whether productivity numbers can be relied on. In the short-term, problems of measurement seem to mean that the productivity numbers are not very helpful.

Robert Gordon, a professor at Northwestern University in Illinois who has made a special study of productivity in the United States, goes one step farther. He finds that the supposed trend increase in U.S. productivity growth is a mirage. In a study in 2000 he wrote the "entire trend acceleration" in U.S. productivity was confined to the computer durables and telecommunications sectors and that "there is no revival of productivity growth in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of durables."

Even if one takes the numbers at face value, they may not say very much. The U.S. government measures productivity by dividing output by hours worked. In the first quarter, U.S. companies cut jobs. The total number of hours worked fell at a rate of 1.9 percent. But companies' output increased by 6.5 percent. Divide the two and you have an impressive-looking surge in output per hour worked.


Black Blade: My thoughts exactly. The again, we already know that the BLS is a bogus organization that pumps out meaningless, bogus, and statistically massaged data. Add in unemployment, employees working longer hours and doing the work of more employees, and toss in a pinch of hedonic filtering for good measure. I take the BLS data with a grain of skeptical salt.

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 03:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75171)
Revisionist View of the Great Depression
http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htm
Summary

Following John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by �contractionist tendencies� of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks� risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.

Using fundamental principles of accounting we shall prove our main thesis asserting that falling interest rates squeeze the profits of productive enterprise. Worse still, in the 1930's the squeeze was concealed by the accounting code which ill-advised politicians had relaxed at the start of World War I. As a result losses were reported as profits and phantom profits were paid out as dividends to shareholders. There was a hidden destruction of capital across the board. More precisely, capital was clandestinely siphoned off from the balance sheet of the productive sector to show up in the form of capital gains in the balance sheet of the financial sector. The collapse of production was not caused by the collapse of demand as asserted by Keynes. Rather, the collapse of demand was caused by the collapse of production, which could have been avoided by keeping the interest-rate structure stable, as it has always been under the gold standard, shutting out bond speculation. The economists� profession would do well to re-examine its prejudices and prepossessions about the gold standard. The urgency of this task is all the more pressing in view of the unfolding deflationary scenario. Once more, the interest-rate structure appears to be falling inexorably, driven by another tsunami of bull speculation in bonds in which the big American and Japanese banks are calling the shots. Far from being able to control the situation, central banks are helpless. Their financial resources are no match for those of the bond speculators.

The only way to avert another tragedy is to stabilize the interest-rate structure. This the United States government could accomplish overnight, by opening the Mint to gold.


Black Blade: Interesting article. A return to the "barbarous relic"?

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 04:45:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75172)
Trash Currencies Plummet Against USD
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD hammers the hell out of world currencies. It appears that domestic manufacturers better pray for tariffs on imports now. So far we have tariffs on steel, and soft wood lumber. Maybe autos are next.

Meanwhile the market indices are going ballistic - the DOW (+128), NASDAQ (+35), and S&P 500 (+15) are set to rocket higher at the open. "Cisco Effect" - Hmmm...

- Black Blade
nickel62
(05/08/2002; 05:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75173)
Black Blade, Maybe the AngloGold people have been whispering in the ears of the South African politicans?
Nopthing would make AngloGOld's attempted defence of an unfriendly takeover of a South African mine more credible then a rise in the price of gold, especially if Barrick is the acquirer. A shut down or a threatened shut down of any portion of South African gold mine production would certainly throw a scare into the gold trading desks of the hedged producers. This could be good news, especially in light of the rumours coming out of GATA that Gold Fields and/or AngloGold are being targeted by Barrick and their bankster buddies for a hostile takeover.
Jimbo
(05/08/2002; 06:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75174)
Fidelity on gold
Fidelity recently mailed to investors a booklet summarizing its "select portfolios." Niel Marotta, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio, commented on the outlook for gold as follows: "�if the equity markets improve meaningfully and interest rates begin to climb, investing in gold could appear less attractive and we might see mining companies increase their hedging activities, which would tend to keep a lid on any gold rallies. Inflation and the direction of the U.S. dollar also must be factored into the mix�right now, neither is supportive of higher gold prices." Marotta's thinking seems to run contrary to what I'm observing in the economy and the gold market. Nevertheless, it makes me wonder why the manager of a successful gold fund would make such contrarian statements? Would anyone care to comment?
nickel62
(05/08/2002; 06:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75175)
JIMBO Fidelity Gold Manager is talking the company book not his!
With $450 Billion plus in Equity and Bond mutual fund assets Fidelity is not stupid enough to allow a gold fund manager of a minor sector fund to start a stampede into his fund by talking straight. He would be reassigned the next day. It is not in the interest of Fidelity to attract money to a gold fund and kill the marketing line they are pumping out to millions of skittish mutual fund holders who are already concerned enough about the rational of keeping their over exposed IRAs and 401Ks tilted toward a collapsing stock and bond market. Been there done that.
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 06:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75176)
Jimbo � Fidelity Select Funds

One thing to keep in mind about the Select Funds, they are managed by entry level analysts and usually stay on the job for about a year before they move on to manage another fund. These Select Funds are really run by the analyst pools who really make the share selections for final approval by the manager. If you get the Select Portfolio guide (semi-annual mailing) you will read about how long the manager has been on the job. You might think of Select Fund managers as being on the "Farm Team" before they are considered for advancement into the "Big Leagues" of the Fidelity family. As far a Gold Funds are concerned, Fidelity (FSAGX) is not that bad as they focus more on non-hedgers, but due to the 3% load, why not invest in a "no load" fund that relies on gains from non-hedgers (Toqueville maybe?) if that's your game plan? I have nominal (IRA) investments in Fidelity Select Electronics (FSELX), Fidelity Select Natural Gas (FSNGX), Energy Fidelity Select Energy Services (FSESX), and Fidelity Select Home Finance (FSVLX). Fidelity is also one of my brokerages. But I have other selections for my Gold investments (like physical and a smattering of non-hedger shares) and even a physical Gold IRA (I know that USAGOLD have a physical Gold IRA option available). Anyway, that's my take on it. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Gold Standard
(05/08/2002; 06:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75177)
Another day in the Cabal's headquarters.....
http://japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=8&id=214675
The scene: A dark and cigar-smoke heavy boardroom in London, just off Threadneedle Street. Twelve cigar-chomping, pinstripe-suited, overweight "Captains of Industry" are seated in varying poses of despair around the mahogany boardroom table.

The time: Early Wednesday morning, 8th May, 2002.

The characters: Twelve members of what is commonly known as "The Cabal", bullion bankers, Reserve Bank representatives, and top intermediaries.

The issue of despair: The irrepressible price of gold.

Chairman: "Gentlemen, thank you for making the time to meet at extraordinary inconvenience. As you know, the price of gold has been almost a week over $310 US dollars, and despite selling and selling into the market, the price has established what I can only see as long-term support. I have called this emergency meeting to see whether any of you have any viable alternatives."

Faceless Cabal Member: "Mr Chairman, what about more Central Bank sales?"

Chairman: "NO! We've got the Swiss making Swiss Cheese out of their hoard, and they're selling far more than they should under that blasted Washington Accord. They've got a quota of only 1300 toinnes, you know. Their sales are going to dry up well before September 2004, and who else have we got to replace them?"

Another Faceless Cabal Member: "Of course! Good old Wim. He's always a value play, and the press are always waiting for his next pearls of wisdom. Let's get Wim to talk about Bundesbank sales again..."

Chairman: "NO! You IDIOT! We tried that two weeks ago under your advice, and look where it has now got us, you fool! The market ignored any threat of Bundesbank sales, and swept to a higher mark regardless. Plus Wim ended up with egg on his face, when those blighted Gold Bugs pointed out that any sales had to be after September 2004, he sank like a deflating balloon. No, there must be something else....."

12 Faceless Cabal Members: rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb.......

Chariman: "SILENCE YOU FOOLS - I've got it!!! Let's do the old Spanish Galleon shipwreck trick - that's alwys good for peeling a dollar or more off the spot price."

Faceless Cabal Member: "Didn't we do that a couple of months ago with that Korean shipwreck?"

Chairman: "Yes, and didn't that work a treat!"

Faceless Cabal Member: "But, that was only a couple of months ago - isn't it too soon?"

Chairman: "NO! No-one will remember that, except for those blasted Gold Bugs - but no-one listens to them anyway! A perfect scheme!!!"

Faceless Cabal Members: (muttered sounds of general agreement....)



Boilermaker
(05/08/2002; 06:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75178)
Trebuchet Seige
http://trebuchet.com/One way to get some press attention would be to drag a trebuchet to the front entrance of the FED and the Treasury with great fanfare, draped with GATA's army colors and deliver an ultimatum to Greenspan and O'Neil that they cease their captivity of the barbarous metal or else a seige will be loosed to tear down their corrupt castles.
See site above for obtaining weapons.
Henri
(05/08/2002; 06:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75179)
Blak Blade msg #75163
The Oconee (SC)and Davis Besse (OH)Reactors are the same design by Babcock & Wilcox. While there are a number of issues surrounding reactor head nozzle integrity in pressurized water reactors PWR), the call for detailed inspections was mostly fulfilled at the time the DB "hole" was discovered. Perhaps the DB folks were dragging their feet a bit knowing that they would not pass the mandated inspections? The Oconee site has 3 identical B&W reactors and it appears that only one had issues significant enough to be specifically noted. Other sites which have B&W reactors that I know of are Three Mile Island, PA (2 nay 1 now), Crystal River, FL (1)...there may be others. Most other pressurized water reactors are of a different design and were designed by Westinghouse or Combustion Engineering. A sizable portion of US reactors are of the boiling water reactor (BWR) type designed by General Electric.

The older PWR plants had been undergoing extensive testing to qualify their pressure boundaries for recertification as they were approaching their operational design lifetime. Due to "overengineering" on the safety side many were found not only suitable for life extension but were also given permission to upgrade their power output. Several have already ordered new reactor heads rather than deal with the minor issues identified during the inspection mandate as they could forsee long downtimes and the economics favored head replacement.

I personally don't see this causing a lot of disruption of nuclear generating capacity in the future, nor do I see it as a death knell for nuclear power in general. On the contrary, I see it as a tribute to oversight provided by industry self regulation and the Nuclear insurers that brought these problems out into the daylight. Also the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for reacting to this news in a proactive way that facilitates evolution of the industry.

Much smaller and safer (town scale) reactors on street corners would seem to be the next sane direction given the aging transmission infrastructure and the tendancy for large power block manipulation by companies like Enron.
nickel62
(05/08/2002; 06:55:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75180)
Tough talker Spitzer is going to maybe ask Merrill Lynch to go to bed without supper for ripping Merrill Lynch clients off for billions!!!!
Wall Street loudly protests that punishment is too harsh. Merrill lawyers argue that maybe the punishment should simply be going to bed without dessert. Spitzer plans new political campaign as "Defender of Public Interest" Mattel and MGM plan new Spitzer action figure and sequel/follow on to Spiderman movie with "Attorney General Man". Blows smoke up publics butt while secretly blackmailing Wall Street for campaing contributions to fund future politcal campaign. $50,000,000 fine stated to be on par with $100,000,000 fine that Credit Swiss First Boston payed for rigging IPO market...Other Wall Street firms think Credit Swiss and Merrill shouldn't have gotten caught...Other politicans wish they had thougth of it. Game continues..Sheeple are now sleeping on public park benches and using gas station bathrooms as needed and that is the only part of this settlement they will ever see. Spitzer thinks that this subsidy of the on going care of former Merrill investors is warranted in light of the obvious abuse by some rogue analysts that happened to be working for Merrill Lynch when they sent emails later to prove embarassing to Merrill and very lucrative to self serving pubic frauds.
nickel62
(05/08/2002; 06:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75181)
Merrill settlement looms....Spitzer declares canidacy for Govenor!
05/08 07:38
Merrill Drawing Near Accord to Settle Spitzer Probe (Update2)
By Stephen Cohen


New York, May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. is close to an agreement to settle charges by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer that the biggest securities firm by capital misled investors with biased stock research.

The firm hopes to reach an agreement soon to settle Spitzer's claims. Negotiations so far have been ``productive,'' said Merrill spokesman Tim Cobb and a statement from Spitzer's office. Merrill has offered to pay about $50 million, though a final figure is still being discussed, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Spitzer yesterday postponed a court appearance on the matter until May 16.

An agreement that separates research and investment banking within the firm could keep the attorney general from seeking civil or criminal charges against the firm, the paper said. Merrill's shares have fallen 24 percent, losing about $11 billion in market value, in the month since Spitzer released e-mails from Merrill analysts that indicated its research was influenced by investment banking relationships.

``This shouldn't be too big of a financial burden, especially because the failure to reach settlement involves much higher risks,'' said Yoshiaki Asada, who manages 50 billion yen in U.S. equities at Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co. ``Investors would even find the news positive.''

Merrill shares climbed $2, or 4.9 percent, to $42.80 on Instinet.

A $100 million settlement would be the same as what Credit Suisse First Boston agreed to pay earlier this year to settle regulatory charges that it allotted sought-after shares of initial public offering in exchange for investor kickbacks in the form of higher commissions.

Criticism

Spitzer wants Merrill's analysts to be paid from a pool of money separate from that generated from investment banking fees. He also wants to stop analysts from participating in pitches to win business, and wants Merrill to publicly recognize that it misled investors and pay a fine.

Merrill doesn't want to agree to new research policies unless its Wall Street rivals also adopt such changes. Spitzer's investigation, which began with Merrill, has widened to include other securities firms. Other regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Association of Securities Dealers and the New York Stock Exchange, have joined the investigation.

Spitzer had criticized Merrill's research, releasing an October 2000 e-mail about Internet Capital Group Inc. in which analyst Henry Blodget said there was ``nothing to turn this around'' and ``nothing positive to say.'' At the time, though, Merrill rated Internet Capital ``accumulate,'' its second-highest rating. Merrill has said the e-mails were taken out of context.

``Wall Street has had a basic conflict of interest for some time,'' said Howard Ward, who manages the $2.95 billion Gabelli Growth Fund and owns shares of Merrill and other securities firms. ``The most likely case is a settlement with maybe a fine and a change of practices.''

Merrill is a passive, minority investor in Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.


Canuck Gold
(05/08/2002; 07:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75182)
Commentary by Bill Murphy on derivative market
By Bill Murphy
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
May 7, 2002

This morning I received a phone call from the best of
sources in South Africa. The source has a friend who
spent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chase
senior bankers. The friend was told by the Morgan
people that they have "lost control of the gold market
and that the gold derivative department was a mess."
The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P.
Morgan Chase -- the bank itself -- might not make it
through the year. They suggested that my source buy
$330 February gold calls.

Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my source
received the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of the Gold Cartel bullion
banks:

* The gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase
is being investigated.

* The man who ran the department has been fired.

* This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was
called "still a rumor" by the program host.

* It appears the "conspiracy guys" were right all along.

A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that the
man who ran Morgan's gold derivative department had
indeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?

Subsequently, another outstanding source informs me
he hears that Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts a couple of years ago when Reg Howe revealed Chase's gold derivative position as reported to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.Mehta called in his accountants and others to find out how that disclosure happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell, and I presented that document to the speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. The following day I delivered it to every member of the House and Senate banking committees.

Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we had
to say.

This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and Jim
Sinclair have alerted Caf� members to:

* The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.

* A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.

* Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.

* The price of gold is going to explode.

* There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.

The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets, and the Fed must all be in a state of sheer panic over gold. There is a feeling by some in the GATA camp that they will orchestrate a massive bailout -- like ask the International Monetary Fund tosell its gold. Anything is possible, but to do anything now might be folly and tip their hand that GATA was right all along. Why should anyone care if gold goes to $400 or $500, much less $350? All that a price rise would do is be a boon for theeconomies of sub-Saharan Africa.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's credibility is very good in Africa. If The Gold Cartel comes up with some trumped-up reason to sell gold, I shall try and see some of the leaders of the gold-producing countries and point out what has been done to them and why.

CG: Following yesterday's events in Israel, the US dollar is up and gold is sharply down. And TPTB would have us believe that the markets are not manipulated. I take solace from the fact that they though Canute could stem the tides. The reality is that they cannot control nature, but they can maybe slow it down a little.
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 07:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75183)
Henri � Nuclear Reactors

I agree. The main point about the current reactor problems was the additional shutdown time for inspections and repairs. It is unlikely that the shutdowns will be much of a problem overall, but will add to the demand for other energy supply in the interim. However, I think that the next wave of the Nuclear power industry will likely involve "Pebble Bed Reactors" (PBR). PBR's are purported to be safer and are smaller so they can be located for use closer to the end user. At some point Nuclear power will have to take on a more prominent role as "cheap" hydrocarbons are depleted and energy demand grows. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
(05/08/2002; 07:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75184)
can a country retire?
After talking to my wife about trade deficits and current account balances etc., she asked a good question.
If things keep up and Japan keeps growing their savings in US treasuries, will they ever reach a point where they will be able to retire on the interest income and never have to touch the principle? Funny huh?
Henri
(05/08/2002; 07:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75185)
Black Blade
Yes, the PBR's do look promising for both small and large scale applications. I believe Excelon is in the process of designing and building a prototype in South Africa.
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(05/08/2002; 07:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75186)
Taking a break. . . .NEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.



To all my readers:

I will be taking an extended break from these (almost) daily ministrations to see what it's like to view the world of gold and finance once again as a disengaged observer. To keep up with the news and views surrounding the yellow metal, I would suggest both following the Discussion Forum and scrolling through Live News at the Daily Market Report page. Nothing will change, however, with respect to my duties and involvement on the brokerage side of the business. Those of you accustomed to putting up with my ruminations and complaints about the ways of the world will find the line still open at Extension 101 and business proceeding as usual. MK

Chris Powell
(05/08/2002; 08:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75187)
Barrick is covering more of its shorts
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1100Barrick increases the covering of its short position
in gold:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1100

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
RobotGuy
(05/08/2002; 09:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75188)
Volatile Everything!! Sweet!!
YGM
(05/08/2002; 09:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75189)
Missouri must use A Anderson Accounting Firm....
Shades of the future for Gov't....."They're ALL Broke"! We just need honest accounting to see it!May 7, 2002

THE NATION
Missouri Stops Payments of Tax Refund Checks
Budget: The state cites a cash flow crisis in taking the extreme measure. More than 400,000 have been told that they won't get the money owed them any time soon.

By STEPHANIE SIMON, TIMES STAFF WRITER


ST. LOUIS -- The budget deficit is huge. Tax collection has been unexpectedly skimpy. And the treasury is all but tapped out.

So the state of Missouri has stopped sending out income tax refunds. And there are no plans to put the checks in the mail any time soon.

State officials have told 415,500 taxpayers that their refund checks--worth a total of $167 million--are on indefinite hold because of an extreme cash flow crisis. "We really don't know how long it will be," budget director Brian Long said. The move announced late last week is extreme. Illinois has delayed refund payments a week or two because of a cash flow crunch. And Alabama has put off paying most corporate tax refunds until the economy rebounds. But several national experts on state finances said Missouri appears to be alone in cutting off personal income tax refunds.

Or at least it's the only state to have announced such an unpopular policy.

"I have to think that the same discussion about at what point or when [the treasury] can pay tax refunds is going on in several other states right now ... because their circumstances are similar to those in Missouri," said Harley Duncan, who directs the Federation of Tax Administrators.

Or, as budget analyst Arturo Perez put it: "Opening the [tax return] mail can be slowed way down. That's the crude method of delaying refunds."

Several States Face Similar Fiscal Crunches

Perez, a senior specialist with the National Conference of State Legislatures, plans to start surveying budget directors today to find out just how bad the April tax season has been--and how refunds are being handled. California refunds are going out on schedule; taxpayers who filed in mid-April should receive checks within six weeks, according to the Franchise Tax Board.

Evidence collected informally so far shows states across the nation reporting an anemic tax collection season, at best.

The reasons are obvious: With the economy in recession, many people worked fewer hours or at lower-paying jobs last year, so they owed the state less income tax. Even more significant, the drooping stock market ensured that few investors had capital gains to report--or pay taxes on.

Budget directors anticipated such a downtick, of course, especially after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks slammed an already weak economy.

But in many states the gloomy forecasts turned out to be not gloomy enough.

Missouri, for instance, predicted income tax collection in April would run about $525 million, down 13% from the previous year. "Frankly," Long said, "I thought we were being pessimistic enough." He was wrong: The state took in just $420 million in April.

Even in her small private practice, accountant Michelle Moon could see the plunge. Client after client was getting unexpectedly large refunds. Those who owed the state owed much less than in years past.

"You could see the writing on the wall," said Moon, who works in St. Charles, Mo. "You could tell the state was going to have to make some drastic cuts because the money was not going to be there."

'You Can't Spend What You Don't Take In'

Indeed, despite a painful round of cuts last winter, Missouri is facing a deficit of up to $250 million for the fiscal year ending June 30.

Lawmakers are now debating how to plug that hole. If they can reach consensus, the state might have enough cash on hand to resume refund payments next month. That's a big if, however, as the chief proposal--to tap a rainy-day fund--has drawn ferocious opposition from conservatives. House Republicans have already voted it down once.

Which leaves budget director Long in a tight spot.

"You can't spend what you don't take in," he said, sighing.

If the refund checks are delayed past Aug. 15, the state will owe taxpayers interest at the rate of 6% a year. But that's small consolation to the families who were counting on their money now, to pay off credit card bills or remodel a bathroom or cover a summer vacation.

The Department of Revenue estimates that 26% of those taxpayers who are owed refunds are caught in the limbo.

Among them is Tony Salvatore, an airline pilot from the St. Louis suburbs who was expecting a $979 refund.

"I think this is terrible," he said.

He's particularly steamed that lawmakers are considering a $644-million plan to build a new baseball stadium for the St. Louis Cardinals and refurbish stadiums in Kansas City when they cannot even return him the $979 he overpaid in state taxes last year.

"I'm not an accountant," Salvatore said, "but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this state is going to get into serious trouble if we keep going like this."

RobotGuy
(05/08/2002; 09:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75190)
YGM - - - - Man!! There's going to be 400,000 very disappointed individuals!
Solomon Weaver
(05/08/2002; 10:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75191)
Black Blade: Here's a little face time for the "other energy"
http://www.frtechbiz.com/displayarticledetail.asp?Art_ID=570625/3/2002 5:51:00 PM
By Rod Franklin
Three Colorado State University researchers have invented a machine they say increases the speed of photovoltaic (PV) solar cell manufacturing by a factor of 10, compared with other systems.

Mechanical engineers W.S. Sam-path, Kurt Barth and Robert Enzenroth have tested a prototype that spits out one 3-inch-square thin-film PV cell every two minutes � and does it cheaply.

Their next goal is to produce a version of the machine that can make 1-foot-square cells. Eventually, they want to commercialize the hardware.

"We do want to see this thing happen," Sampath said. "We want to see (PV) modules at Home Depot and Builder's Square (priced) as low as they can be."

But they face tough odds, according to the locally based manager of a national thin film partnership program.

Sampath's research group at the CSU Materials Engineering Laboratory linked together seven PV manufacturing steps into one in-line process. Its machine makes solar cells by depositing thin layers of highly conductive cadmium sulfide and cadmium telluride, two of the most advanced materials used in modern thin film production, onto glass.

By comparison, Barth said, one major manufacturer employs five or six discreet wet chemistry steps as part of its process. And though existing manufacturers have been able to link together some or all of the seven steps, the consolidation doesn't occur in one machine, he added.

The group has achieved a respectable sunlight-to-electric-current conversion efficiency of 12.5 percent in its cells, and Sampath claimed they boast among the toughest resistance to degradation of any thin film PV.

Even so, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) expert who maintains regular contact with domestic and foreign PV producers doesn't rate CSU's process optimization at the top of his list.

"They're not the best in the world, but they're topnotch devices," said NREL's Ken Zweibel. "I think they are an adequate representative of a technology which has good potential."

Zweibel manages the Thin Film Partnership Program for NREL, which funded a portion of the CSU research. He said existing PV manufacturers are way ahead of the university in terms of financial backing and production infrastructure.

"Competing with them is going to be difficult," Zweibel said. "You're going to have to have substantial backing."

Big players such as BP Solar and First Solar are pumping millions into high-throughput assembly methods. First Solar has a plant near Toledo, Ohio, that is being scaled up to produce 100 megawatts of thin film PV modules each year � about half the world's 1999 output.
"They have a similar process, actually," Zweibel said. "If anything, it's faster than the one at CSU."

A healthy global demand already exists for PV cells in third-world countries where off-grid power is nonexistent or substandard. Village electrification using PV modules (containing many cells) and arrays of modules is a promising market.

Yet current production volumes don't begin to sate the power appetites of the estimated 2 billion people around the world who get by without electricity. According to Photovoltaic News, Japan led in global manufacturing last year with 128.6 megawatts of PV. The United States was second with 75. Europe followed with about 61.
But producing larger volumes of PV cells and modules is just one missing link in the economic equation for PV, which has struggled for years to improve its standing vis-�-vis wind generation and cheap hydrocarbon energy sources, such as natural gas.

Economies of scale are just as important as volume, especially in the domestic market, Sampath said. Current manufacturing costs stand at $4 to $5 per watt.

"That's about what the selling price is, so the industry is not very profitable at all," he said. "The thought is, if you can get it on your roof for under $3 a watt, the market is semi-infinite."

For that to happen, manufacturers would need to shave production costs to $1 or $1.50 per watt.

Significant progress has been made in PV economics. The cost of electricity from solar cells has dropped from more than $1 per kilowatt-hour in 1980 to a current price of about 20 cents.

Patents associated with the CSU invention have been signed over to the three engineers, who have begun to explore technology transfer options through an advisory committee.

"We have made contacts with some of the more noted names in the field," Barth said.
YGM
(05/08/2002; 10:22:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75192)
SAFE HAVEN.....Revisionist View of The Great Depression.....
http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htmEXCERPT:

Revisionist View of the Great Depression

Summary
Following John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by �contractionist tendencies� of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks� risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.

Using fundamental principles of accounting we shall prove our main thesis asserting that falling interest rates squeeze the profits of productive enterprise. Worse still, in the 1930's the squeeze was concealed by the accounting code which ill-advised politicians had relaxed at the start of World War I. As a result losses were reported as profits and phantom profits were paid out as dividends to shareholders. There was a hidden destruction of capital across the board. More precisely, capital was clandestinely siphoned off from the balance sheet of the productive sector to show up in the form of capital gains in the balance sheet of the financial sector. The collapse of production was not caused by the collapse of demand as asserted by Keynes. Rather, the collapse of demand was caused by the collapse of production, which could have been avoided by keeping the interest-rate structure stable, as it has always been under the gold standard, shutting out bond speculation. The economists� profession would do well to re-examine its prejudices and prepossessions about the gold standard. The urgency of this task is all the more pressing in view of the unfolding deflationary scenario. Once more, the interest-rate structure appears to be falling inexorably, driven by another tsunami of bull speculation in bonds in which the big American and Japanese banks are calling the shots. Far from being able to control the situation, central banks are helpless. Their financial resources are no match for those of the bond speculators.

The only way to avert another tragedy is to stabilize the interest-rate structure. This the United States government could accomplish overnight, by opening the Mint to gold.


*Cont'd @ Link..........
YGM
(05/08/2002; 10:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75193)
BARRICK........BY HALF TO 3 M oz...Give us a break, There's 18 M oz showing on the books!
BOYCOTT....ABX< PDG< JPMBarrick trims hedges again to 'take greater advantage of rising gold prices?


Canadian Press


Wednesday, May 08, 2002



TORONTO (CP) - Barrick Gold Corp. is further scaling back its forward selling, announcing Wednesday it is "simplifying" its so-called premium gold sales program.

The company said it will not renew its gold call and variable price sales contracts, a move which is expected to reduce these hedging positions by half, to three million ounces by year-end. "A simple spot deferred program makes more sense in today's environment," stated Jamie Sokalsky, chief financial officer of Canada's largest gold company.

"The overall program will be simpler, smaller and better positioned to take greater advantage of rising gold prices. At the same time, it will continue to generate significant additional revenues and provide secure and predictable cash flows."

These changes are in addition to Barrick's previously announced decision to sell half of its output at the spot price for the first time in 14 years. In recent years, all of its production was delivered against the hedging program at prices far in excess of the spot market bullion price.

� Copyright 2002 The Canadian Press

***Smoke and Mirrors, fancy accounting and pure BS from Barrick will not fool many......Bah!

darkhorse
(05/08/2002; 10:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75194)
OK, what'd I miss?
1) I've lost several more marbles than I'd been told in the past
2) I missed some extraordinarily good news today
3) The PPT work is now being added into quarterly production numbers and they're working hard to make sure it's up again this quarter

These are the only reasons I can see the DOW +280, SP500 up almost 35 and the NASDAQ up almost 100. What'd I miss?
YGM
(05/08/2002; 10:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75195)
End Result of Gold Confiscation.......
From Safe Haven article.....Excerpt:

Without the gold ban the recession that started with the 1929 stock market crash would have been over by 1932. With the gold ban, the recession was turned into the greatest depression of all times. The man who was celebrated as savior ridding the nation of the curse of depression was in fact the one who had brought about the disaster in the first place. He pulled the gold trigger releasing the murderous forces of bond speculation to prey upon the productive sector. It heralded the continuing fall of the rate of interest. Bond speculators, first and foremost the banks among them, were ready to move in for the killing. The vultures picked the bones of productive enterprise clean. All this was done under the veil of anonymity. Nobody could have guessed that the Great Depression was a happy time for some. Well, for the bankers it was time for popping corks. Not only was their skin saved, but they became so strong financially that they could thereafter dictate government policy.


**Well I say the latest Gold Manipulation Scam by Bankers and their minions might well result in the demise and restructuring of the entire Fed Res system before the smoke clears away....Greed "IS" it's own executioner!!!....YGM.
Cavan Man
(05/08/2002; 11:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75196)
JPM Rumor
From LeMetJPM closing down gold derivative ops? Please confiem independently as I have heard and read so many "blockbuster" stories like this over the last three years I am a bit jaundiced.
Graefin
(05/08/2002; 11:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75197)
Missouri Tax...
Schiesse!!! And I hope I'm not one of those 400,000 Missouri tax payers who won't see their money because I haven't received my refund yet! Schiesse!
- Arme Gr�fin
Pizz
(05/08/2002; 11:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75198)
The War may be starting in earnest
Keep the big picture in mind.

We've been at war since 911. After the opening salvo, IMO the first front has been and still is financial, and the intensity is increasing.

Nobody will take the US on head-to-head militarily without a second front. Our financial underpinnings are our Achilles Heal.

It is my opinion right now that the Gold Cartel is being hammered into submission with the goal of taking down the financial system thru a derivitives/banking implosion. The PTB is throwing everything they have at the markets today trying to drive gold down (and not being too successful) and the SM's up (more successful, but upside gaps tend to be filled and the bulk is short covering right now).

Our opponents are buying gold by the ton and selling the SM's and the PTB is obliging out of what may be sheer desperation. We're at least one move behind on the war chessboard. If someone can buy gold and sell US assets to the benefit of their goal of taking us down, IT'S A WIN - WIN SENARIO. Think About It! Can you think of a better way to get your assets out of the US and into gold than what appears to be happening right now???

Actual war? Our opponents just keep Israel twisting in the wind. Look at the timing of the latest two suicide attacks.
We're being forced into a confrontation along with Israel and we don't have the luxury of another terrorist attack as justification. A few weeks back the administration said an attack on Iraq was not in the near term offing. It was figured that we would not fight in the heat of the summer. Rumors have it now that MASH units are being called up. That says 60 days or so - in the dead of summer??? Not our choice, but if it's going to happen, our opponent(s) want the best advantage they can get.

We weren't all that popular in the world going after Bin Laden (the way we did it), less popular if we go into Iraq, but one whole heck of a lot less popular if we get drug into Israel's agenda, and it sure is starting to appear that we will. Sharon is enraged, and will probably be forced to do something major.

The US is being forced from a somewhat justifiable crusade on the axis of terror, to an unpopular US/Israel coalition against the Palestines and/or Islam. Gee, is this happening by accident????

When the bullets and bombs start flying in earnest, expect the terrorists to shift to the US in a big way. Use your own imagination to figure out what it will do to the "recovery" and gold. A physical war in the ME, terrorist at home, and a dollar/fiat financial war in the backround and running hard for the forefront.

I personally hope I'm wrong, but we're not playing this too smart (we're not in control). We appear to be trying to run a bluff against a straight with a pair of jokers in our hand and nothing up our sleeve. I for one am not underestimating our opponents.

Stick the course. Buy and hold PM's. Next four to six months may make 1980 look like a small blip on the chart.

Pizz

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/08/2002; 12:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75199)
buy the RUMOR!
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=$COMPX&read=74607a great day to buy more gold. JPM bank crisis link above
Mr Gresham
(05/08/2002; 12:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75200)
Market surge
http://mrci.com/djindus.aspAnd look at the ones booming today -- all of the greatest 52-week losers in the Dow -- financials & techs (MSFT, IBM) -- a little too coincidental? This is to stem a rout and give a last lifeboat to certain parties? How many more bullets in PPT's revolver? "Now you're probably asking yourself -- did he fire five rounds, or six..."
Pizz
(05/08/2002; 12:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75201)
Mr. Gresham
Aren't there a couple different types of dead-cat bounces?

Normal, and then the ones where you have to scrape the road-kill up with a flat-nosed shovel and throw it in the air?? (kind of like this one??)

Pizz
RobotGuy
(05/08/2002; 12:46:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75202)
Golden Bear (5/3/02; 06:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74820)
I never did enquire as to why the S&P had to return to '1100 to 1110' value before 'the next onslaught.' I have been thinking about it, but I am not sure I know why. Could you please elaborate on why the S&P must return to this level before residing? I'll tell you one thing I know for sure, is that this market has the appearance of going anywhere today, and I'm sure that is the intended effect. Didn't we just see a 2% drop recently in the DOW? Today she's up a little, and it looks like the cheerleaders might get laryngitis if they don't calm down :)
What a wonderfully volatile market it has been, the entertainment is extremely gratifying. It's similar to fishing, when you feel a little tug on the line, and you know there's activity down there. You don't set the hook right away, but you wait until the next tug. As soon as the next tug happens, you set the hook, and then relax the line just in case you missed you don't want to frustrate the fish from trying again. That moment of suspense while you let the line sit slack wondering if it's there or not is the entertainment I speak of.
We're sitting on a slack line with a trophy catch preparing for battle!
The confidence that brings us our daily ripples in the pool of endless fiat is about to be swallowed in a whirlpool.
I hope at least the smart ones know to get out very soon, lemmings will suffer direly for their lack of willingness to investigate the true meaning of their investments.
We will suffer the recession that we have not suffered, it's just been put off for awhile.

Gold may sink, but it always shines!


Cheers!!

RobotGuy.


Jon
(05/08/2002; 12:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75203)
Mahendra Sharma Predicted Nasdaq Rise
On April 29, predicted 30% increase in Nasdaq within 30 days! Up over 100 so far today. Going up another 500 this month? Wonder if he's member of PPT team.
YGM
(05/08/2002; 12:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75204)
US BANKING NEWS SITE......
http://breakingnews.datasegment.com/finance/us_banking/Good place for a daily visit......
Gandalf the White
(05/08/2002; 13:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75205)
BIG DOWNFLAGS on the DOW and Duck !! & SPOT buried in PAPER
WHAT a show the PPT is having today !
Not to worry, SPOT is eating this PAPER BLIZZARD !
BUY the REAL physical while the price is cheap.
<;-)
Boilermaker
(05/08/2002; 13:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75206)
Potlatch Folds Plant
Potlatch to close mill, exit a business next week

SPOKANE, Wash., May 8 (Reuters) - Wood products company Potlatch Corp. (NYSE:PCH - news) on Wednesday said it will close a Minnesota mill and exit the coated printing papers business, as previously announced, at the beginning of next week.

Spokane, Washington-based Potlatch said 616 employees will lose their jobs as a result of the mill closing in Brainerd, Minnesota. The closing will take place on Monday but parts of the mill will operate until May 17.

It will also exit the coated printing papers business that day. Potlatch had said in March that it would sell its coated-papers facilities in Cloquet, Minnesota, to South Africa's Sappi Ltd. (SAPJ.J) for $480 million.

The company also said at that time that it would close its remaining coated printing papers mill in Brainerd

Boilermaker comment:
The "strong recovery" is derailed for 616 more unfortunate ones off to the boneyard.
Pizz
(05/08/2002; 14:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75207)
Money's moving out of the US no matter how they spin it
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020508&ID=1623147Wasn't there supposed to be the first half of a treasury auction today. Bond market seems to be rather down while all interest is focused on SM.....hmmm. Based upon realitive size of the markets, I feel US financial assets have taken a rather large negative hit, even with the SM rally. Doesn't appear that it was a full house at the treasry auction. Oh, well, probably just means we'll (have to???)lower prices a bit for tomorrow. Nothing like a fire sale to attract customers. I'm just positive as heck the bond market's drop was due to such a turn of events in the SM as a penny or two in Cisco's earnings - yea right.

Another "bullish" news item I heard today was that the war in Afganistan is winding down sooner than expected. Didn't bother to say where the troops were going . . . .hmmmm again.

Guess it's all just in the way you look at it . . . or spin it!

Pizz
Pizz
(05/08/2002; 14:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75208)
Correction
sorry, the 2nd half treasury auction was today. Still doesn't change my basic premise - money is still moving out of US financial assets (net).
sector
(05/08/2002; 14:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75209)
Get Ready for Friday's Option Expiry...
...That Means a Fat Buying Opportunity...Prehaps the Last Best Chance to Get on the TrainWith seemingly every producer announcing hedge closures, who exactly is left to sell forward? Not many I'd say. So Friday's end-of-day COMEX expiry presents a neat opportunity.

If I were the cabal, with all my dirty JPM laundry waving in the breeze [Chief Derivatives manager Dinsa Mehta canned and $40Billion in gold derivatives being closed], I would be one mad puppy and probably lash out in sheer frustration. Something like we saw today in the markets. The DOW, NASDAQ and Gold must have cost the Fed dearly indeed! What a tantrum!

So...the cabal likely floats into Friday and punchs pog down to maybe $300, maybe $305 in the early Friday PM....THAT'S when to move!

All this derivative closure has to move the COMEX gold price ...unless of course the FED has pushed their JPM gold losses onto some offshore entity who will just default and not deliver their borrowed gold.

What about their counter parties? We're the government�Sue us if you can!

On second thought�who ever reads the Cayman Islands Gazette anyway?
Pizz
(05/08/2002; 14:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75211)
JPM
A trader interviewed on WebFn said JPM was in the S&P futures market HEAVY today on the buy side.

Workin' for the PPT and switching gears from shorting gold to pumping the SM??? Or rear-end covering for both due to up coming losses??

Free markets my _____. this isn't even humorous anymore.

My objectivity attributes are being severly tested. (more so than usual)
Boilermaker
(05/08/2002; 14:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75212)
ABX Press Release
http://www.barrick.com/pdfwindow.asp?src=http://www.barrick.com/word/pressreleases/press5_8_2002_a8baba.pdfWhen reading Barrick's press release the follwing caught my eye;


"Secondly, the company will no longer invest a portion of its
spot-deferred contracts in corporate bond funds, and will
instead leave all proceeds invested with its average AA-rated
bank counterparties. "

I'm not sure why they're doing this but it sounds a little risky to put your money with the same people who have the other side of your contracts. Can anyone help me with this?
White Rose
(05/08/2002; 14:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75213)
Barrick's investments
Sometimes things are confusing because people are just plain embarrassed. Barrick's lost some money (not a huge amount, but enough to be an irritation) on Enron bonds.

Now, they do not want to say ... "Gee, with 20/20 hindsight, those Enron bonds were not our shining moment".

So they say "we are no longer investing in corporate bonds anymore". I suspect that the reason they are using their counterparties is because they are forced into it by other measures.

You already know you do not want to invest in this piece of junk. They sell forward their gold and invest in Enron bonds. What else are they doing that they are not admitting to?
YGM
(05/08/2002; 15:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75215)
Gandalf the White (5/8/02; 13:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75205)
Spot Buried in Paper..........is that the same paper we use to housetrain Spot???
Boilermaker
(05/08/2002; 15:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75216)
@ White Rose
Thanks for your take on Barrick's investments. I guess I was looking for something a bit more spicy like incest with ones banker. Oh well, I'm sure they're in love.
YGM
(05/08/2002; 15:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75217)
GATA EMAIL..............
http://www.gata.org3p Wednesday, May 8, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Here are a couple of today's dispatches of special
interest.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

To Members of www.LeMetropoleCafe.com:

Two sources in various parts of the world informed me
today that J.P. Morgan Chase is closing down its gold
derivative operations. It appears that GATA has run
them out of town. I will have more on this in my "Midas"
commentary tonight at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com.

-- Bill Murphy

* * *

Barrick comments on Gold Fields speculation

TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. , which
has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold
producer through a series of acquisitions over the past
20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it
was poised to swell further by taking over a South African
producer.

"The rumors about South Africa are just that. While we
assess opportunities and we are familiar with
opportunities, they are just rumors," Randall Oliphant,
president of Toronto-based Barrick told shareholders
at the company's annual meeting.

"Because Barrick has been so acquisitive, we're
always associated with taking advantage of each of
the opportunities. Although we're proud to be dynamic,
I don't think that we can jump that fast between days
from one opportunity to another."

Earlier this week a prominent mining Internet site
reported that Barrick and AngloGold Ltd., the
third-largest gold company, would team up to buy
Gold Fields Ltd., the fourth-largest producer.

"These rumors are creative, but it's just somebody
creating this stuff at home in their basement," Oliphant
told reporters after the meeting.

Gold Fields has been a favorite of takeover rumors
since its failed merger with Franco-Nevada Mining
Corp. Ltd. almost two years ago. Franco-Nevada has
subsequently merged with Newmont Mining Corp.
and Normandy Mining.

Over the past two decades, Barrick has grown from a
small company with one mine to become an industry
leader with annual production of about 6 million
ounces of gold.

Its acquisitions include the 1999 purchase of Sutton
Resources, giving it the Bulyanhulu property in
Tanzania, and the takeover of Homestake Mining
last year, which helped Barrick develop a foothold in
Australia.

-END-
YGM
(05/08/2002; 15:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75218)
As We Near The Abyss.........................
Yahoo News...Treasury Chief Warns on US Default
Wed May 8,11:17 AM ET
By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Congress needs to extend the government's authority to borrow or risk an unprecedented default on the national debt, something that would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill warned Wednesday.


O'Neill made his latest pitch for swift congressional action on raising the debt ceiling in a speech to Republicans gathered at the Capitol Hill Club.

He has repeatedly asked Congress to boost the debt ceiling by $750 billion, but the request has become stuck in a political fight over the budget. The limit now stands at $5.95 trillion.

Treasury last week said it can shift some funds to avoid hitting the debt ceiling in mid-May. But those maneuvers won't be useful in late June, raising the prospect of a default on payments to bondholders.

"If we run into the ceiling that's really bad," O'Neill said in remarks to the Republican Main Street Partnership. "Because world capital markets will say they knew they needed to do it and they've know for six months that they needed to do it and they didn't do it and that casts a shadow on the good faith and credit of the United States."

If the government were to miss payments on debt coming due, it would be technically in default on the $5.95 trillion national debt, something that has never happened in the country's history. That would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, now considered the world's safest investment, and would mean the government would be forced to pay billions of dollars in higher interest payments on the national debt in future years.

Economists and other experts don't think that would happen because Congress is sure to eventually raise the debt ceiling.

O'Neill appeared to agree.

"It's not a question of whether we are going to do it or not. It's just a question of how close to the cliff we're going to run before we do what we know we need to do," he said.

__

On the Net:

Treasury: http://www.ustreas.gov/

R Powell
(05/08/2002; 16:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75219)
YGM
Debt In regards to that $5.95 trillion. Couldn't O'Neill just pay it with a Visa or Master card to delay the billing for another month. This would give Congress time for a well-deserved two week vacation and still time to raise the national debt ceiling. Maybe we could pay it with one of those 1.9% credit card checks that everyone gets weekly in the mail. This lower rate would safe the taxpayers some money.
Any more news about JPM's gold trading department??
Rich
Pizz
(05/08/2002; 16:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75220)
R Powell
Re: Debt

They wouldn't be smart enough to use the Visa Checks, more like an 18% card and then scoop the frequent flyer miles (smile).
Rock
(05/08/2002; 16:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75221)
Mr. Gresham
Mr. G quotes, "How many more bullets in PPT's revolver? "Now you're probably asking yourself -- did he fire five rounds, or six..."

Thats a good one Mr. G, I learn alot and laugh alot at this forum. One of our fine minds said it well a few weeks ago when they said, "I'm working on my masters in economics and international finance right here at USA Gold," my sentiments exactly.

About today's spike in the Dow and Nasdaq, what me worry? The way they are hyping it up on the news channels you'd think that we're back in a bull market like in the 90's.

Heck it's only a one day bounce, and even though gold dropped a few bucks today, gold will take a dip from time to time as it has over the past few years but look where its at today. From 270.00 an oz in January 2002 to 309.00 in May 2002, that's a clean $39.00 jump this year. I'm happy with that, I don't know anyone showing me those kinds of returns on Qualcom ect.

The problem with the stock market today is you have great expetations in war with reality.

Cheers,

Rock
R Powell
(05/08/2002; 16:47:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75222)
Interest rates
Waverider posted the first message of the day today with a link to metal interest rates. The silver rates were up substantially. This bears watching. The last time these rates skied upward the cause was attributed to a shortage on the spot market in London. I heard rumors that this was finally eased with the arrival of 12 million ounces from a private source. I've often wondered if the rumor was true and, if so, how long 12 million ounces would keep the wolf away from the door. I've wondered about the rumor which was information given to me by telephone from a trader working for a huge world wide metals' refiner which just happens to have their USA base here in Massachusetts. He wouldn't say any more than what I reported.
Waverider, thanks for the heads-up!
Rich
Golden Bear
(05/08/2002; 16:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75223)
RobotGuy (msg#: 75202)
Greetings RobotGuy,

That prediction was a short term prediction as a probable upside target before the next move down. The market was so weak last week that it did not even get there before it plunged later in the week. That level was a resistence level as I view the charts and would have been a major short term test as the markets looked then...

As we have seen a short term bottom has been put in place and the market is now rallying. Not that I'm saying anything revolutionary to many here who are probably market veterans.

I have been extremely busy the last few day and haven't been able to contribute to the forum, but I will have a closer look at the markets tonight and make a comment.

By the way, I hope I didn't say "must" in my prediction, as there are no definites in the markets, only probabilities...

Cheers,

Golden Bear.
Aristotle
(05/08/2002; 17:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75224)
A change in the wind?
Very wisely there's been a lot of close scrutiny among our hosts and forum members of the Argeninian crisis and the outcome of the peso devaluation. Roughly measuring the benchmarks since the January devaluation, the peso has lost 2/3rds of its value against the dollar and the primary index of the Buenos Aires stock exchange is up more than one-third (33-40%.)

By the way, the local price of Gold in Argentina has more than tripled during this time.

This is all worth considering as we begin to look for non-traditional explanations of today's 3% gains on the DOW and 8% gains on the Nasdaq.

The relationships between the big wigs on Wall Street and those in Washington being what they are, it's not hard to imagine early trading by the big investment houses on tightly held rumors that the government has shifted its stance on the dollar, whether it be willingly or helplessly.

IF (a big if) the JPM rumors have substance, then as the Gold metal market explodes, the U.S. banking system in general will need plenty of liquidity (lots of cheap dollars) to avoid widespread insolvency on several conceivable fronts.

Continuing with the big "IF", these investment houses, aware of Morgan's problems and knowing therefore that Gold in quantity is unobtainable, would also that any additional interest would only add fuel to the fire. One of the natural reactions we might expect to see under limited options would in fact be a seemingly unnatural rise in the stock markets that can't otherwise be justified by the public economic news of the day.

Sometimes it's a blessing to be small. Its easier to shift your funds to target the best avenues without worrying about single-handedly moving (and exploding) the targeted market. In light of the experiences of Argentina in the wake of a real currency devaluation, I'd rather be small and thus able to shift my thousands into Gold (300%) than to be a huge institution whose millions are only able to slosh (responsibly) into the runner-up prize of the stock market (40%).

Hmmmmmmm. What did we see here today... and why?

Some idle ramblings, full of holes, but something you should consider anyway.

Gold. Get you some. STILL very heavy for the price. --- Aristotle
Hipplebeck
(05/08/2002; 17:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75225)
schizoid markets
Man, there is a lot of money out there just swashing about looking for somewhere safe. How much poured out of the bonds market and ran for stocks today? The treasury put a big dump on the bond market today. Rates are going up.
Sharon's move. What's he gonna do? Are we already in a financial war? In this corner we have the USA and Isreal, and in this corner we have the Arabs and Islam. Have we come that far?
Arcticfox
(05/08/2002; 17:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75226)
Gold outlook....
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020508&dateOffset=&hub=headdex&title=Headlines&cache_key=headdexBusiness¤t_row=27☆t_row=27#_rows=1Snip..

By CAROLYN LEITCH
INVESTMENT REPORTER

The Globe and Mail
Wednesday, May 8, 2002 � Page B15


Investing in gold and gold stocks has provided rich returns so far in 2002, but one Bay Street strategist believes the yellow metal has not finished its run yet.

David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., sees potential for a run-up in the gold price to as high as $325 (U.S.) an ounce, and a further 10-per-cent gain in the shares of gold producers.

"Consider that a conservative call," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note to clients yesterday.

YGM
(05/08/2002; 17:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75227)
Rich.....JPM Chase, Dinsa Menta. Enron
http://energycommerce.house.gov/107/news/03072002_508.htmEnergy and Commerce Committee Seeks Details From Wall Street on Enron


Washington (March 6) - As part of their continuing investigation into the financial collapse of Enron Corporation, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Billy Tauzin (R-LA), along with Ranking Member John Dingell (D-MI), Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman James Greenwood (R-PA) and Subcommittee Ranking Member Peter Deutsch (D-FL), today called on more than a dozen Wall Street investment and credit-rating firms to turn over records linked to Enron and its related partnerships, as well as services provided for the bankrupt company.

(Attached below are copies of the letters sent today to more than a dozen Wall Street investment and credit-rating firms)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HERE'S THE LETTER TO JP MORGAN/CHASE.*NOTE* DINSA MENTA NAMED AND ALL RECORDS REQUESTED...The rest of the letters are linked...BTW...Many if not most named in inquiry are part of the Gold Suppression Cabal..FWIW..YGM

--------------------
March 6, 2002

Mr. William B. Harrison, Jr.
President and Chief Executive Officer
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
270 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10017-2070

Dear Mr. Harrison:

The Committee on Energy and Commerce is investigating matters relating to the financial collapse of Enron Corp. ("Enron"). To date, the Committee's investigation has revealed or learned, among other things, about information relating to the manipulation of Enron's financial statements to artificially inflate Enron's stock value; reports that Enron accounted for large loans from financial institutions as financial hedges instead of debt on its balance sheet in order to mask its weakening financial condition (Enron's "derivative contracts"); evidence developed by the Committee that for financial institutions, future business with Enron, or the lack thereof, was linked to investment in Enron's "special purpose entities" ("SPEs") or related partnerships; and, that individuals employed by various financial institutions were offered the opportunity to, and did invest in, these SPEs and Enron-related partnerships controlled by Andrew Fastow, Enron's former Chief Financial Officer, and/or Michael Kopper, namely, LJM Cayman LP (LJM1) and LJM2 Co-Investment LP (LJM2).

To assist in the Committee's investigation, please provide, pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, the following information to the Committee by no later than Wednesday, March 20, 2002:

Please list all securities underwriting, advisory services, including, but not limited to, mergers and acquisitions advisory services, and credit facilities services provided by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., and/or Stoneville Aegean Ltd. for Enron or its SPEs or related partnerships from 1997 to present. Please list the date of each contract or other commitment for such services, the fee or compensation earned by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. with respect to each such contract, and the date and amount of the underlying transactions.

Did J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. invest in, or otherwise provide financing for, any Enron SPEs or related partnerships, including, but not limited to, the Raptor and Whitewing entities, the Marlin Water Trust, the Osprey Trust and related SPEs, the Nighthawk SPE, the Firefly SPE, the Sequoia SPE, the Choctaw SPE, the Cherokee SPE, the Cheyenne SPE, Chewco Investments, LP, JEDI I and II, LJM1 and LJM2? If so, please provide the dates and amounts of the investments or financing, who authorized them, and the fees or compensation earned by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Did any J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director invest in any Enron SPEs or related partnerships, including, but not limited to, the Raptor and Whitewing entities, the Marlin Water Trust, the Osprey Trust and related SPEs, the Nighthawk SPE, the Sequoia SPE, the Choctaw SPE, the Cherokee SPE, the Cheyenne SPE, Chewco Investments, LP, JEDI I and II, LJM1 and LJM2? If so, please identify the individuals making the investments, and the date and amount of each investment, and state J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s policy regarding investments by its employees, officers, or directors in entities for which J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. provided investment services or advice. Please provide a copy of this policy to the Committee.

Committee interviews with, and testimony from, Jeffrey McMahon and Sherron Watkins, as well as other information learned by the Committee, indicate that several financial institutions and their employees claimed to have received promises, inferences, or suggestions from Enron and/or LJM employees that the financial institutions would receive future Enron business if they invested in the LJM partnerships. Please state whether any officer or employee of Enron or the LJM partnerships made any guarantee, promise, suggestion, innuendo or other communication that suggests or otherwise indicates that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would receive future business from Enron, or that the likelihood of receiving such business would increase, if J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. or its employees, officers, or directors invested in, or provided financing to, any Enron SPE or related partnership. If so:

Identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above;

Identify each transaction associated with any business received from Enron as a result of investments made by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. or its employees, officers, or directors; and

Provide all records relating to these transactions.

Committee interviews with, and testimony from, Jeffrey McMahon and Sherron Watkins, as well as other information learned by the Committee, indicate that several financial institutions and their employees claimed to have received threats, suggestions, or innuendo that a failure to invest in the LJM partnerships would have a negative impact on the likelihood that they would receive future Enron business. Please state whether any officer or employee of Enron or the LJM partnerships made any threat, suggestion, or innuendo that suggests or otherwise indicates that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would not receive future Enron business if it or its employees, officers, or directors did not invest in any Enron SPE or related partnership. If so, please identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above. If so:
Identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above;

Identify any Enron related transaction J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.. believes it was denied as a result of a failure to invest in the LJM partnerships, or other Enron-related partnerships; and

Provide all records relating to these lost transactions.

Reportedly, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. earned over $100 million in revenue from its relationship with Mahonia, Ltd. and Mahonia Natural Gas, Ltd. Please describe what interest, economic or otherwise, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has in Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Lively Ltd., and/or Justice Ltd., and the dates those interests were obtained.

Reportedly, from 1997 to 2000, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. used Mahonia Ltd. and its related companies provided for or arranged more than $2.2 billion of "back-to-back" transactions where Mahonia-related companies signed forward contracts for delivery of oil and gas from Enron, and contemporaneously, J.P. Morgan would sign identical contracts with the Mahonia-related companies. Please provide all records relating to such transactions.

Please describe any ownership or economic interest that persons, charitable trusts, or entities/shareholders other than J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. may have in Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Justice Ltd., and/or Lively Ltd. Please provide the names of these persons, charitable trusts, or other entities/shareholders of Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Justice Ltd., and/or Lively Ltd.

Reportedly, Mahonia Ltd. and Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd. are owned or controlled by two entities, Mourant & Co. and Mourant & Co. Secretaries. Please describe J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s relationship with Mourant & Co. and Mourant & Co. Secretaries.

Please provide all records relating to communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Jeffrey McMahon, Andrew Fastow, Richard Causey, Richard Buy, or Joseph Deffner, relating to any Enron SPEs, trusts, or related partnerships.

Please provide copies of all communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., Dinsa Mehta, associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Cliff Baxter, Jeffrey McMahon, Andrew Fastow, Richard Causey, Richard Buy, or Joseph Deffner, relating to any investment, loan, or derivative contract that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and/or Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., or Stoneville Aegean Ltd. made with or to Enron or its related SPEs, trusts, or partnerships.

Please provide all records relating to communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., Dinsa Mehta, associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ian James, reportedly a director of Mahonia Ltd.

Finally, please identify all senior J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employees or officers who worked on or were responsible for its Enron-related transactions, and make them available for interviews with Committee staff.

Please note that, for the purpose of responding to these requests, the term "Enron," as used above, means Enron Corp., or one or more of its divisions, subsidiaries or affiliates, or related entities. The term "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.," as used above, means, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. since its merger on December 31, 2000, and includes the separate companies, J.P. Morgan & Co., and The Chase Manhattan Corporation, that existed prior to the merger, and any of their respective related and affiliated businesses. The terms "records" and "relating" should be interpreted in accordance with the attachment to this letter.

If you have any questions, please contact Mark Paoletta, Chief Counsel for Oversight and Investigations, at (202) 225-2927, or Edith Holleman, Minority Counsel, at (202) 226-3400.

Sincerely,



W.J. "Billy" Tauzin
Chairman

John D. Dingell
Ranking Member

James C. Greenwood
Chairman, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

Peter Deutsch
Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations



Pizz
(05/08/2002; 17:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75228)
Aristotle
Darn good ramblings.
YGM
(05/08/2002; 17:52:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75229)
THOSE BEING INVESTIGATED>>>>>>>
Previous Link @ Energy Commerce InquiryMERRILL LYNCH,
CITIGROUP,
GOLDMAN SACHS,
CREDIT SUISSE BOSTON,
JP MORGAN CHASE,
LEHMAN BROS,
MORGAN STANLEY,
DEUTSCHE BANK,
STANDARD & POORS,
MOODY'S,
UBS PAINE WEBBER.

***Also noteworthy is the Bush Whitehouse is in full support of hearings/inquiries and of criminal charges of "ANY" Manipulations......ENRON is/was involved the the Gold Markets Manipulation scam as sure as there's sky above!
There was just too much collusion for them to resist!

An awful lot going on at the present, so much as to give one a headache trying to sort & keep up....Black Blades
"BONE PILE" will feed all the Bears in N America before it's over.........YGM.
TownCrier
(05/08/2002; 17:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75230)
Today's rally in stock prices...
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/10021533.htmlSimple short covering ranks right up there among the excuses.

Excerpt from TheStreet.com:

-------In a rally of near biblical proportions, what had been last for so long was first today. Still, it is only the true believers who are convinced that it was anything more than a token offering to the long-dead bull market.

...a great many market participants believe a rally was primed to occur at the slightest provocation.

Heading into today's session, the Nasdaq Composite had closed down in 14 of the past 16 sessions and the S&P 500 in 10 of 12, noted Jeffrey Saut, chief equity strategist at Raymond James. Meanwhile most major averages were well below various moving averages and thus oversold.

"Consequently, the market was set up [as] complacent shorts had crowded into the theater and Cisco shouted 'fire,'" Saut quipped.

..."In markets like this, err on being conservative," he said. "Fundamentals haven't changed one iota. I still think it's a muted [economic] recovery, and stocks are not priced for muted."----------

The healthy portfolio is the one that is prudently diversified. Call USAGOLD / Centennial for help with the gold component.

R.
Waverider
(05/08/2002; 18:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75231)
IDF massing troops near Gaza in preparation for retaliatory strike
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=161125&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0Snippit:
"The IDF began massing forces on the border with the Gaza Strip late Wednesday night, in preparation for a retaliatory operation following the suicide bomb attack in Rishon Letzion which killed 15 people."

Waverider: Hipplebeck - "what's Sharon going to do?" I've found the newslink above, the "Haaretz" the best for news on Isreal, and the most current as it has frequent updates. Cheers!
canamami
(05/08/2002; 18:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75232)
"Day of Reckoning" is coming (looming U.S. credit crisis)
http://www.canada.com/halifax/dailynews/columnists/story.asp?id={29B55F66-3829-4285-B6BA-AC2AD7E3DABA}This is from Brian Flemming of the Halifax Daily News:

'Day of reckoning' coming
Looming deficit crisis in U.S. bad news for world's economy

By Brian Flemming
The Daily News

Last week, in the world of G7 economies, there was good news and not-so-good news. The best news for Canada was its return to grace and favour in the bond market. Moody's gave our bonds an AAA rating for the first time in nearly a decade. Too bad we're not issuing new bonds any more.

Also, with the growth in Canada's GDP plus paydowns of our debt, Canada's indebtedness is approaching 50 per cent of GDP. Finally, this country is within spitting distance of the 40 per cent mark, considered by most economists to be an appropriate and safe level for an economy like Canada's.

The not-so-good news emerged from America. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) claimed the American current account deficit � borrowing from abroad to cover domestic budgetary shortfalls � now represents one of the largest risks to the world's economy.

The hitherto bulletproof U.S. greenback hit some six-month lows against major currency competitors. The euro climbed through the 90 to the dollar mark for the first time in many moons. Even the long-suffering loonie finally began to show strength against the mighty American currency.

Louis Crandall, economist for a leading American bond market research firm, said, "The day of reckoning is certainly coming ... I've been looking for it for quite some time." What Crandall and the IMF are worried about is the fact that the American economy, to keep cranking along at current levels, needs to borrow almost two billion bucks a day (!) from foreigners. So far, these foreigners still seem to have an appetite for greenbacks.

For years now, major foreign investors have gorged themselves on American assets � stocks, bonds, real estate. Smaller players have stuffed American dollars under mattresses or in cookie jars. Even the international drug market has helped; it runs entirely on American currency that will never return to the U.S.

If, for any reason, those habits of investing or saving of American dollars should shift, the current account deficit would then have to shrink. That, in a nutshell, is what happened in Argentina last year. U.S. dollars evaporated and, of course, the Argentinians had no way of printing American dollars. (Canada, in stark contrast to the U.S., has a huge international current account surplus.)

A sudden shrinkage of the American current account deficit would trigger a collapse in domestic demand (i.e. cause a recession) and/or would push the dollar down from its current pinnacle.

The Economist last week quoted a study of current account deficits in developed economies from Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed found that "deficits usually began to reverse when they exceeded five per cent of GDP. And this adjustment was accompanied by an average fall in the nominal exchange rate of forty per cent, along with a sharp slowdown in GDP growth."America's economy is fast approaching the five per cent level. That's the "day of reckoning" Crandall is referring to; it's expected to arrive in December. Morgan Stanley says it could even reach six per cent by 2003. That, said The Economist, would be the largest deficit run by any G7 economy in 30 years.

American treasury secretary Paul O�Neill, one of George W. Bush's weakest cabinet ministers, poopoos these concerns and says the current account deficit is a "meaningless concept." That's what British chancellor of the exchequer Nigel Lawson used to say until his economy tanked in the late 80s.

What has changed recently in America has been the passage of a Bush tax cut for the wealthy plus a post-9/11 increase in defence spending. Suddenly the Clinton domestic surplus has evaporated like the morning dew. And if the stock market is performing its historic function � namely, giving a six-month-out snapshot of the economy � then even the most dedicated Bushies should be sweating. The Dow can't stay over 10,000; p/e ratios are still high; Nasdaq has returned to the basement.

On top of that, the increasingly protectionist Bush administration � driven almost entirely by short-term domestic political advantage � may soon give foreign lenders pause too.

Should Canadians worry too? Or just exult in the coming ascent of the loonie? I think we should do both. Any current account deficit crisis in America would cause major disruption in Canadian exports. On the other hand, the loonie could finally move to where The Economist's famed, and accurate, Big Mac Index says it should be: at about 80 U.S. cents.

Speed the day.
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 18:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75233)
Merrill, Goldman Bond Default Insurance Soars: Rates of Return
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=APNhOpxZLTWVycmls
Snippit:

New York, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., are among Wall Street firms that may pose growing risks for bond investors. The cost of insuring Merrill Lynch's $71 billion of notes and bonds against default has jumped 80 percent since last month. That's when New York state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer began an investigation into Wall Street's conflicts of interest between analyst research and investment banking. Other securities firms' credit default swaps are also rising.

Black Blade: Some analysts claim that the improvement in financial share prices are based on the rumor of a deal between NY state AG Spitzer and Merrill Lynch that will allow the Wall Street Investment firm to pay a fine without admitting guilt. That does not mean that the other 19 states now seeking redress will follow through and there still exists the numerous lawsuits from investors that are sure to follow.

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 19:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75234)
Gold prices seen set to climb further
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020508&dateOffset=&hub=headdex&title=Headlines&cache_key=headdexBusiness¤t_row=27☆t_row=27#_rows=1
Snippit:

Investing in gold and gold stocks has provided rich returns so far in 2002, but one Bay Street strategist believes the yellow metal has not finished its run yet. David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., sees potential for a run-up in the gold price to as high as $325 (U.S.) an ounce, and a further 10-per-cent gain in the shares of gold producers. "Consider that a conservative call," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note to clients yesterday. Mr. Rosenberg says gold serves as good, low-cost portfolio insurance.


Black Blade: No argument from me.

Canuck
(05/08/2002; 19:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75235)
@ YGM
Best to take profits now.

I have been watching the POG for 4 years now. IT IS A FUNCTION OF THE US DOLLAR. I am sure there is a linear equation of POG/USD/YEN/POUND/EURO/FRANC.

Study that question and answer yes or no before proceeding to fact #2. If yes proceed to #2.

Gold is inverse to the USD, so should the USD rise gold will fall. We witnessed that large today. Should there be a demand for gold and a supply of dollars gold will rise. We saw a frenzy in Japan in Jan. and Feb. but there are no stories in March or April. Demand has wained. If yes proceed to #3.

The economic recovery is about as clear as the non-economic recovery. Stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, who have taken a 60-80% beating, as a whole, have been trending the 1500-1800 mark for a long, long time. It is entirely possible that the bottom is in for tech shares? If yes, proceed to #4.

Let's say, for the most part that gold stocks have doubled (100%). Let's say that tech stocks have been quartered (25%). By virtue of the CONTRARIAN definition, should we buy tech stocks? By virtue of currency valuation and import/export imperatives must Japan and its equals export to maintain economic viability. How could a valuation of say, 100 yen to the dollar possible exist? If yes, proceed to #5.

As a student of demographics, and the reader of "DOW, 36,000" I understand that governments will twist the numbers in a grotesque fashion to acheive the results demanded. Governments must provide 'old-timers' will mega-fiat-bucks in as little as 10 years. Everyone must be rich for there will be no hand-outs. If yes, proceed to #6.

There is no alternative to the USD. Not at this point. Gold is cool but not today. The world is dollarized, there are trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. Gold had its run but things were not GRIM enough. The US would not BLOW its international standing over 2 huge skyscrapers. The rowdy Islamic community will be beaten into submission, Iraq may or may not take a major hit. Maybe it should? It would be in the best interests for the US to whittle Hussein back a notch or 7.

A major chartered bank lowered long-term interests rates today, usually the major CDN chartered banks follow suit. Why would CDN banks lower mortgage rates today? Well, one housing starts fell off a cliff today. (10.4%) They are not worried about inflation? They sense a switch, mortage money demand is waining, money is moving somewhere? JPM had a stellar day today, contrary to the isssues raised last night. The market expects JPM to increase profits.

A shift back to the bubble?


Take profits now??
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 19:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75236)
Crude Oil Jumps as Israel Considers Response to Suicide Bombing
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNlgLhbaQ3J1ZGUg
Snippit:

New York, May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil jumped to a one- month high after a suicide bombing that killed 15 Israelis renewed concern that escalating violence might disrupt supplies from the Middle East, which pumps a third of the world's oil.

Inventory Decline

Oil prices also rose after the American Petroleum Institute reported a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories. Supplies last week fell 4.5 million barrels, or 1.4 percent, to 321.1 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the report expected a decline of about 750,000 barrels.


Black Blade: The Oil inventory level is not much different from last year's energy crisis levels. Meanwhile Oil hovers just below $28.00/bbl and NG is at $3.75 Mbtu.

Canuck
(05/08/2002; 19:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75237)
@ YGM
..and all those investments banks, they will be cleared of all wrongdoings. An article in the Globe and Mail alluded to ML's plea bargaining already. Enron and AA will be slapped 'on the wrist'.

I guess what I am saying is, "to what danger is the USD in at this present moment?"

Really?
Canuck
(05/08/2002; 19:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75238)
BB just nailed it
Oil is at $27 and NG is at $3.75.

The 'energy' bears say there is a $5 war premium built in. So let's be bearish, oil $22, NG $3.25.

The economy has lots of room to rock, the failure zone last time was $37, $10. Will Russian oil play a role this time? Will Canadian NG play a role this time?

Is energy a stopper again this time, probably, is gold a 'walker' until then or do we see a sub-300 gold again?

Curious, devil's advocate if you will?

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 19:44:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75239)
Experts predict fuel crunch for developing countries
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=143231
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 8 -- Energy demand is growing in developing countries that may be hindered by the lack of investment in exploiting their own energy resources, said a panel of industry experts at the opening of the 4-day Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. That demand is growing fastest in China and India, with their burgeoning populations. But in focusing on India and China, "we may be forgetting other parts of the world," warned Matthew R. Simmons, president and founder of Simmons & Co. International, who mediated the invitation-only 2002 OTC Energy Roundtable on Monday.

The combined populations of the 13 member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Mexico, have escalated to some 600 million today from 180 million in 1970, said Simmons at a press conference following that 4-hour session.
"By 2030, their [combined] population could be larger than [that of] India," he said. "History shows that countries only begin to slow their population growth after they become prosperous."

Regions of Asia�China, India, and South Korea�and of Central and South America will be hot spots for future demand growth, with consuming patterns increasingly similar to that of industrialized nations, EIA officials predicted. Those areas are expected to account for about half of the projected new increment in world energy consumption and 83% of the increase for developing countries.

He [Simmons] said, "Over the last 30 years, world oil demand has grown by about 25 million b/d, and maybe 60% of that has come from offshore." But maintaining that level of supply over the next 20 years will be difficult at best, especially from conventional sources. "Many [of the roundtable participants] said, 'Thank goodness for unconventional oil resources, such as oil sands,'" Simmons reported. Such resources will become a bigger factor in supplying the world's growing demand in the future, "unless demand peters out, which means our economy will have petered out."


Black Blade: With most Oil fields in decline, growing populations, modernization and industrialization, most Third world nations will demand their "fair share" of the Earth's dwindling energy supply. Costs are rising and if we must depend on costly unconventional energy supply we will never again see the economic growth of the past several years.


Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 20:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75240)
Flap over gold derivative "firings"
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BB30072242F?OpenDocument
Snippit:

PRINCETON, New Jersey �� Gold bug extraordinaire Bill Murphy reported in a circular to readers of the LeMetropole Web site that JP Morgan Chase's derivatives operations are in chaos. The bank flatly denies the claims and Miningweb has verified that at least one of the executives said to have been "fired" is still on staff.

Donald Eckert, global bullion risk manager at JPMC New York, was contemptuous of the claims and says nobody has been fired in the derivatives or bullion trading departments. He also denied Murphy's report that JPMC managing director of global commodities, Dinsa Mehta, was axed "two weeks ago". Eckert says Mehta volunteered for retirement after the global forex options, forex and gold trading desks were rationalized into a single department. "He was not fired at all, he chose to resign."

Another wrinkle is Mehta's involvement in the Enron fiasco. The House Committee on Energy and Commerce in March called on JPMC to provide copies of any correspondence involving Mehta and Enron's Mahonia subsidiary. When Enron collapsed, Mahonia owed JPMC billions of dollars, which insurers are now refusing to cover because they say the energy transactions were fraudulent. Mehta's precise role in Mahonia is unclear, but he is said to have boasted to colleagues about the fees the transactions generated for JPMC, and which presumably translated into handsome bonuses. The structure of the energy trades was nearly identical to gold hedging with which Mehta would have been especially familiar.

Indeed, Mehta is well known as an arch proponent of hedging and says routinely that gold has been "stripped of its monetary attribute by the globalisation of the international financial system" and that gold has lost its "crisis currency" role.


Black Blade: A lot of damage control perhaps. Mehta left to "pursue other interests". It is apparent that miningweb.com has served as apologists for the hedge fund miners for some time.

mikal
(05/08/2002; 20:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75241)
Bullish story from a stealth headline
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&t...Media speculation is yet again heralding a totally new currency environment! You gotta love the second half of this:


05/09 02:02
Dollar, Little Changed, May Extend Gain After Rally in Stocks.....snippit.......................................
The U.S. currency hovered at 128.95 yen after touching 129.07, its highest since April 25. Against the euro, it was little changed at 90.47 U.S. cents, after having its biggest gain in 3 1/2 months yesterday...........................
...``The current level is likely to persuade Japanese companies to buy the yen,�� said Kenji Takei, a currency sales vice president at the Tokyo branch of Societe Generale SA.
The yen also may be helped by expectations a report due today will show Japan's index of coincident economic indicators in March rose to the level that signals growth, suggesting the nation's recession has passed the worst.
The index, which measures current conditions by tracking indicators such as power usage, wholesale sales and production, probably rose to 50 for the first time in 15 months, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The report is due at 2:00 p.m. Japan time.
Latest reports showed March Japanese factory production rose for a second month, the jobless rate unexpectedly fell, and salaried worker-led households' spending rose.
In other trading, the dollar was little changed at 1.6087 Swiss francs and at $1.4563 per the British pound.END...... Yes, it looks like your writers ended up far from where they started, Mr. Bloomberg.
mikal
(05/08/2002; 20:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75242)
Media spinning with a new twist-"Cover your backside"
http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=500922002Say it isn't so! Yes, you've done it again. Reporting from both sides of your mouth. Never mind, these days you're running par for the course. But this one is so gold bullish, it's a wonder where you ever came up with that title: "Where dollar leads, Euro follows", LOL! Click link or USAGOLD News Link
Canuck
(05/08/2002; 20:41:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75243)
Ten o'clock news just on
Here's the lead:

"Stock markets had their best day in a long, long time. Housing starts were down 10.4% in April and 2 of the country's banks have lowered long term rates by 15/100 of a percent."

Forget all the conjecture and speculation, this is a three-fold reversal:
a)SM
b)housing starts
c)trend of long-term interest rates

What does this mean? Banks don't reverse trend all of a sudden.
GOLDENPROPHECY
(05/08/2002; 20:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75244)
mahendra sharma
SINCE MAHENDRA SHARMA SAYS GOLD WILL REACH $350 BY MID YEAR 2002, I DO NOT THINK WE HAVE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT THIS LITTLE CORRECTION. AGAIN HE WAS RIGHT ON NASDAQ AS WLL.
HIS WEBSITE HAS MORE DETAILS
Canuck
(05/08/2002; 20:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75245)
I don't get it
Checking the Kitco chart for the billionth time today, one sees that gold powered to a New York, three day high of $312.60 at 11:15 where it was whacked four bucks. Unlike Tuesday it was unable to recover.

If I recall Cisco released last night afterhours and while the Dow surged ahead this morning so did gold.

So, checking the graph again, what would explain a $3.60 surge from 8:45 to 11:15 followed by a 4 dollar crash from 11:15 to noon?

So given that Cisco was a known and the SM was a known what explains the sudden reversal except for blatant manipulation. Ask yourself this, given that everything else was in a constant linear slope, what causes gold to reverse in so much a drastic fashion at such an obscure time of day?

What is that? What happened at 11:15 that was so anti-gold??
YGM
(05/08/2002; 21:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75246)
Canuck.....
What Profits?My man if I had 50,000 oz of Au and had a $10.00 profit I'd probably sell and forget all this financial crap and crime perpetrated by scumbag bankers...Kinda get on with what's left of my life @ age 53. I'm as much of a cynic when it comes to the power of the Bankers and the Elite over our lives as I am the optimist on the future of Gold. The last few years have bin an emotional roller coaster for us all.
...Now as I'm no longer involved in Mining or playing the
SM, I'm kinda content to wait & see if all I am optimistic about (Gold) will win over the cynical side (Bankers & Scumbags). I think I'll just rattle along & do my little part til the SHTF & the Car-tel runs out of gas.........
If anyone can play the swings in PMs and the SM & win w/o having a nervous breakdown...Well more power to them.....

As I've mentioned in past "GREED IS IT'S OWN EXECUTIONER"

"PHYSICAL GOLD" Buy It, Hide It, & carry on with life!
mikal
(05/08/2002; 21:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75247)
My, my. Asian eye. Something seems the better buy.


(AFX-Focus) 2002-05-09 03:10 GMT: Forex - Dollar eases in late morning Tokyo after earlier short-covering
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar eased in late morning after sharp gains made overnight on short-covering...... "The market was obviously short the dollar. It's only a correction so far," said Nami Ito of the forex division at Barclays Bank...................Ito noted recent talk that Japanese portfolio investors may have started to send funds overseas for the new fiscal year after disappointing speculators earlier in April.
"Some say that, but we haven't seen much yet," she said.
"People are talking about Moody's. Some say that if they cut by two notches, that will be the end ... and the dollar will go down," she added.
Moody's said it may cut Japan's sovereign rating by up to two notches, adding that an early decision may be made, with speculation that an announcement is likely this month.....click USAGOLD news link for more
��
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 22:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75248)
The Barbarous Relic Files � 521kg of gold dust seized

Welkom - The Free State's infamous G-hostel near Welkom, and parts of Moletsi Hostel, were raided on Tuesday and 521kg of gold dust were confiscated, police said. Police, intent on ending the hostels' illegal melting activities, also confiscated gas cylinders, scales and other equipment used to process the gold concentrate. Superintendent Sam Sesing said although nobody was arrested during the Operation, called "Shapa", police were dedicated to dealing a hard blow to gold theft and would continue their raid on Wednesday. "G-hostel will never be a safe haven for criminals anymore. Disruptive actions like Operation Shapa will be sent from time to time and will hit the criminals where it hurts most," said provincial commissioner Moranodi Gaobepe.

Black Blade: The police sure waste a lot of time over a "barbarous relic" destined for the dustbin of history. Hmmm�
YGM
(05/08/2002; 22:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75249)
Black Blade
521 KG of Flour Gold......Well now I'm drooling...The fineness would make it almost pure Gold....@ 2.2 lbs p/kg uuuugh! I shall have nightmares tonite....Where the heck was this place Welkom?
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 22:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75250)
Ex Nippon Mining & Metals workers arrested in gold fraud
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/020507/kyodo/d7jbpblo1.html
Snippit:

Police on Tuesday arrested former employees of Nippon Mining & Metals Co. and scrap suppliers in Oita City on suspicion of defrauding the company out of more than 300 million yen by misrepresenting gold levels in scrap it bought. In the scam, they took samples from delivered scrap in September and October last year to add gold to them, creating the impression that the overall gold content was higher, according to the police.

Nippon Mining & Metals decides the purchase price of scrap based on the gold content of samples. An in-house investigation by the firm found the overall gold content of the scrap was lower than the samples, prompting it to file a complaint with the police at the end of last year.


Black Blade: Going to prison over a "barbarous relic"? What's the point? Hmmm�

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 22:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75251)
YGM

That's a story from South Africa.
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 22:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75252)
Price rally puts gold hedging out of fashion
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3WZ2VBY0D
Snippit:

Gold companies are famously divided into hedgers and non-hedgers. Those in the hedging camp have been on the defensive lately, while the others are gloating. The sustained rise in the gold price and a rosier outlook for the metal have made selling forward less attractive to both producers and shareholders.

Black Blade: The day of the hedger is over. It's the dawn of a new age where hedgers are irrelevant.

balzac
(05/08/2002; 22:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75253)
Inconsistencies ???
An interesting observation: Dow up 300 pts,Gold down $3.00.

However my 4 PM Funds lost only 2 cents.

Just previously when gold jumped $3.00 , the Funds

went up 25 to 30 cents. Explain that one. PLS.

Balzac.
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 23:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75254)
Barrick dismisses rumors of Gold Fields deal
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news≠ws_id=reu-n08379246&feed=reu&date=20020508&cat=USMARKET
Snippit:

TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), which has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold producer through a series of acquisitions over the past 20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it was poised to swell further by taking over a South African producer. "The rumors about South Africa are just that. While we assess opportunities and we are familiar with opportunities, they are just rumors," Randall Oliphant, president of Toronto-based Barrick told shareholders at the company's annual meeting.

Earlier this week a prominent mining Internet site reported that Barrick and AngloGold Ltd. (ANGJ), the third-largest gold company, would team up to buy Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ), the fourth-largest producer. "These rumors are creative, but it's just somebody creating this stuff at home in their basement," Oliphant told reporters after the meeting.


Black Blade: As I had pointed out to Tim Wood on the miningweb.com, the rumor was senseless as Barrick does not have the means to takeover Goldfields and such a merger would not likely pass muster with the largely anti-hedge shareholder base. Besides, the Goldfields share price has rocketed higher while the Barrick share price has barely budged by comparison. No Goldfields shareholder wants that Barrick albatross hanging around their neck.

The Invisible Hand
(05/08/2002; 23:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75255)
Look at the title!
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Market+Summary&content_idx=11468Market Summary, by Rob Peebles
Atlas shrugs, stocks rocket
May 8, 2002
---
Is it really that near?
RobotGuy
(05/08/2002; 23:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75256)
Dear Golden Bear,
An opinion in this forum,to me,is just as valid as a fact. As far as I'm concerned there is nobody who might predict the future accurately no matter what calculation you choose to endeavor upon. E = m c/squared is a formula that humans have accepted as truth, but in reality it is a formula that will be proven wrong before long.

I am very greatful of the opinion of my fellow human, as to me it is just as valid as a written law. Thank-you for your continued support.

RobotGuy.
Goldfly
(05/08/2002; 23:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75257)
YGM.... a link
http://iafrica.com/news/sa/938703.htmFWIW
Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 23:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75258)
Louisiana-Pacific to Cut 4,400 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020508/manufacturing_louisiana_pacific_3.html
Snippit:

PORTLAND (Reuters) - Loss-making building products company Louisiana-Pacific Corp. announced a radical restructuring on Wednesday to cut debt that included the sale of several businesses and the loss of 4,400 jobs. The company said it would divest 935,000 acres of timberland in three states, along with its lumber and industrial panels operations, in a move to maintain investment grade credit ratings and focus on profitable businesses.

Black Blade: Logging company whittles down work force. Sending off more to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade
(05/08/2002; 23:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75259)
Andersen: 2,000 Workers to Join Deloitte
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020508/financial_andersen_deloitte_2.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Embattled accounting firm Andersen LLP said on Wednesday about 2,000 of its workers will join rival Deloitte & Touche, as it reshapes itself while facing a criminal charge from its role as auditor for bankrupt energy trader Enron Corp.

Black Blade: That's 2,000 rats jumping off the burning derelict Arthur Andersen.

Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 00:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75260)
California Consumers Hope Power Blackouts Are History
http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2002/05/08/krtbn/0000-0463-SJ-BLACKOUTS
Snippit:

The state's complex electricity system is far from fixed, with consumers paying inflated bills while government leaders warn of future troubles. "All of the fundamentals that allowed the energy crisis to take place are still there in suspended animation," said Fred Keeley, D-Santa Cruz and speaker pro tem of the state Assembly.

But California faces some worrisome trends and unresolved issues. Conservation, which proved the key to avoiding blackouts last summer, is about half the level it was last year. Consumers last year shaved 10 percent off their peak use, but the savings has since slipped to 5.5 percent. The state's grid managers, however, say conservation is still critical.

Another worry is that the rush to build new power plants is over. The collapse of last year's high prices has led energy companies to cancel 62 projects that would have pumped out 4,600 megawatts, spelling trouble for coming years. Stricter pollution controls will also force old plants into retirement, for a loss of nearly 900 megawatts.

California still needs to pull in 3,500 megawatts from neighboring states to meet its needs. To keep up with the state's expected growth, grid managers say the state must add 1,000 to 1,500 megawatts of new energy generation each year. But with today's soft power prices, lenders aren't too eager to finance half-billion-dollar power plant projects.

Transmission bottlenecks, blamed for the first rolling blackouts which hit the San Francisco Bay Area in June 2000, still plague the region, as well as San Diego. The "Path 15" route that moves power between northern and southern California is still choked.


Black Blade: I suspect that the Kalifornia Grasshopper will revisit the energy crisis. Unfortunately the Grasshopper must rely on others to survive, and thankfully they can rely on the state of Washington to give them a helping hand with Hydroelectric power. However, if this summer is warmer than usual they will have to deal with dwindling supply and transmission bottlenecks. So scratch one economic recovery for Kalifornia this year.

Belgian
(05/09/2002; 00:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75261)
Wolves do eat wolves ( AU / ABX )
FWIW !!!
AU and ABX have different hedgebooks. If AU can corner ABX with a subtle management (closing out) of its own hedges...softly buying (spot in weakness) and delivering Physical...ABX's enormous hedges could be seriously threathened, without doing too much damage to the remaining AU hedges ? AU (or anyone else) is never going to suggest an ABX take over as extremely overvalued (P/E=58) and vulnarable to any POG rise above 325$ > 350$. The Cambior and Ashanti (wolve) tactics on ABX !? Will and can the financial brotherhood allow this to happen ? Why not ?
In the mean time, daily stories of everyone wanting to take over everyone, are a welcome play of divertisement.
Let those wolves devore each other and watch the spectacle with your own aboveground refined at hand.
Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 03:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75262)
Australian gold hedges fall 200,000/oz
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nsyd306786.html
Snippit:

SYDNEY, May 9 (Reuters) - Australian miners reduced their gold hedging positions in the March quarter by 200,000 ounces to 24.3 million ounces, excluding the positions held by the former Normandy Mining, investment bank JP Morgan said on Thursday.


Black Blade: Well�..it's a start.

Boilermaker
(05/09/2002; 04:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75263)
L Kaplan's 5/9 Commentary
I notice that Leonard offers an extremely bullish commentary for gold today. I suppose he's negative on holding physical because he's probably losing some of his paper clients to the physical dealers. He knows what's happening and why but he's been bad-mouthing the conspiracy theory for so long that he can't publically reverse himself without losing all credibility. He's painted himself in a corner. His clients will suffer.

What really caught my eye was the following from his commentary that may explain the silver lease rate increase;

"There has been much talk among traders in the market about J.P. Morgan this past few days. It would appear that Mr. Dinsa Mehta, formerly their Chief Precious Metals and Commodity Analyst, has "retired". As this gentleman was responsible for approving many of the obviously self-enriching and obviously obfuscated trades done with Enron by an affiliate of J.P. Morgan, such a "retirement" (giggle....) is not unexpected. If there is one universal prerogative of large corporations, it is that when something bad happens, SOMEONE MUST DIE. And Mr. Dinsa appears to be the victim.

There are also rumors that this same firm was a MAJOR borrower of silver in the shorter-term periods over the last few days. Perhaps they are just cleaning up some problems. But don't expect anything really significant.
LeSin
(05/09/2002; 05:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75264)
"GOLD IS FREE" Thanks to Mr Vaughn at the Eagle Forum Across the Hall
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/vaughn051002.html
GOLD IS FREE!!!

Gold is finally FREE!!!

Its shackles have been RELEASED & it is ready to begin performing according to the laws of supply & demand. Actually, it is important to understand now that the rules of the game, as dictated by the "big boys", have changed.

When the effort to control the price of gold through the extreme & successful method of hedging, Barrick Gold was first chosen as the "patsy" to carry these designs out. For Barrick playing this role brought prestige & honor & political power to have the important distinction of being the major vehicle implemented in carrying out the gold price manipulation scheme.

But as with the role of all "patsies," their services are eventually no longer needed. Such is now the case with Barrick. It is now time for gold to shine & someone must take the blame & heat for the devastation brought about by the pain that a manipulated gold price has brought about.

Barrick does not like this new role it is being scripted to play.

Just a year ago there were 2 principal gold companies whose duties were the active involvement & pursuit of keeping the price of gold down, AngloGold & Barrick. But now the game has changed & it is has been determined by the elite that it is acceptable for the price of gold to float & maneuver freely.

AngloGold's recent comments & actions reveal this new change of policy. What is AngloGold officially saying about the direction & future of the gold price now?

Bill Murphy 5-1-2002 "The following appeared in a MONEYWEB today. It is MOST SIGNIFICANT. I will elaborate in MIDAS later: (the following is an interview with Bobby Godsell, AngloGold CEO). BOBBY GODSELL: �we've indicated again that we think the gold price is firming and that we've got better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993, maybe even since 1987. Against that background, we've been trimming back our hedge book."

Bill Murphy, "This is a two plus twoer. Gold went to $400 + in 1993 and $500 + in 1987. Up, up and away we go!"

What does this statement from the CEO of the most powerful gold company in the world mean? What Bobby Godsell is announcing to the world is AngloGold's acceptance now of a higher gold price. In this statement he informs the investment community that AngloGold is positioning itself accordingly to prepare for this coming gold price explosion. No longer will there be severe steps taken to keep gold's price down.

What is AngloGold doing to prepare for a higher gold price?

"AngloGold CEO Bobby Godsell has been pounding the table for months and months that Anglo has reduced its hedge book and is going to continue to do so in an aggressive manner."

"That is most unusual. Normally a big hedger completes a buyback program and THEN announces what it has done. My colleagues and I have been scratching our heads as to why Anglo would announce its intentions ahead of time, which would surely result in higher buyback prices�."

"Thus Bobby Godsell wants the world to know that the world's No. 1 gold producer is covering hedges, so as to encourage others to cover hedges, so as to encourage hedge funds and other physical gold buyers to step up to the plate and get long."

Do you begin to understand readers how the wheels are turning & a new position for gold is being established? For a long time it was gold's role to be unimportant & for its price to be kept below 300 dollars an ounce.

Now the rules are changing & the new rule is for gold to be allowed to RISE!!!

This is just too bad for a company like Barrick who has built its entire infrastructure around the concept & practice of hedging. Yes, I will be very surprised to see Barrick in its present form & its current leadership still intact several years from today.

Let me repeat again what Bobby Godsell has said so its significance can really penetrate the brain.

BOBBY GODSELL:"we think the gold price is firming and that we've got better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993 (1993 = 400 an ounce), maybe even since 1987 (1987 = 500 an ounce). Against that background, we've been trimming back our hedge book."

If the above message is not a signal by a major world player & market maker informing the world where gold is heading I do not know what is!!!

Bobby Godsell goes on to say, "We've reduced our hedge book by 1.7 million ounces this quarter, or 120 percent of the company's production. We are now significantly less hedged than we were last quarter. That increases our participation in the firmer gold prices�"

MONEYWEB: Now the gold price is flirting with around the $310 level. Where do you see that by year-end?

BOBBY GODSELL: Byron, all we can say is -- my colleague Kelvin Williams has studied this market for 17 years now -- everything is in place for a firmer price.

Again, "Better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993, maybe even since 1987." (500 + gold price)

"Conservative gold executives like Bobby Godsell do NOT make casual comments such as this. There is a purpose to everything he says in a formal interview. Godsell knows that GATA has been right all along; that the gold price has been rigged and kept at artificially low prices for years. He knows the rig is coming to an end and he knows the gold price is explosive for all the reasons often cited in "Midas" commentary. For those reasons Godsell is not afraid to hint that $400 or $500 gold is possible."

"I can't be the only one in Gold Land to understand this. A statement like this has to freak some of the big hedgers and encourage other big spec players to load the gold boat."

You are right, Bill. This is indeed a message for the remaining hedgers to UNWIND THEIR HEDGES." I consider Godsell's gold comments to be as significant a development as any since GATA began and the Cafe opened for business."

From the very beginning it was designed that Barrick would be the principal patsy to act as the flagship for the practice of hedging & to act as a role model for other gold mining companies to follow.

Now the plan is changed & part of the design is to allow the gold price to move forward. AngloGold is aware of these plans & is preparing for it accordingly. It is important to always remember that the money behind AngloGold represents the REAL world players & market movers. Barrick's players & insiders represent "chump change".

Who controls the purse strings of AngloGold? Go look & see. I would prefer not to mention their names lest my intentions are misconstrued.

Now Barrick is being prepared as the sacrificial lamb.

Is Barrick accepting this new world policy change for gold gracefully & with class?

In desperation to save itself Barrick has tried to position itself stronger by purchasing Homestake to provide a cheap source of unhedged gold. But this will not be enough to save Barrick & Barrick realizes this.

Even now Barrick is beginning to sink under the weight of its own self-created corruption.

Thom Calandra of CBS MarketWatch touched on Barrick in his column today:

"Barrick failed to meet Wall Street earnings expectations Wednesday. In their conference call, Barrick executives fielded numerous analysts' questions about the company's hedged sales of gold, a strategy seen by some as risky if bullion prices rise sharply. Those questions, from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others, were met by Barrick executives, who assured investors they were monitoring the situation."

"Monitoring the situation? What does that mean? The arrogant meatheads at Barrick continue to doubletalk. They are going to get their hat handed to them. AngloGold has outfoxed them and Barrick is stuck sucking up to the Gold Cartel. Hedge book blowups are coming. Will Barrick be one of them?"

"Not only is Barrick (ABX) unable to manage its core business profitably, but CEO Oliphant has dragged his company into the yawning abyss of the Gold Cabal. While the reported loss on derivative gold sales is described as "small", you can bet this number will explode, and most of it splashing across the face of Oliphant. Dump it!" Bill, The Charleston Voice

How deserving that the very pain & horror that Barrick contributed to so many other gold mining companies it is beginning to experience itself.

When Barrick does eventually sink into its own self created sess pool there will be no sympathy from the rest of the gold mining community. Most of those really knowledgeable of the gold mining industry long ago recognized Barrick as an Enron & Author Anderson type financial instititution dealing primarily in derivatives. NEVER was Barrick a true gold miner, but only an Enron Derivatives Dealer.

In desperation Barrick is now even attempting to purchase AngloGold & against AngloGold's will. I'll tell you right now though, that ain't going to be allowed to happen!!!

"GATA Chairman Bill Murphy's "Midas" commentary tonight at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com breaks what may prove to be the story of the year in the gold world: Barrick Gold's plan to acquire AngloGold."

"The big gold news today has to do with Barrick and AngloGold. I was told the following last night by the best of overseas sources:

"Barrick at the moment has a team of 40 people working in Johannesburg. They want to take over AngloGold." Bill Murphy LeMetropole 5-1-2002

And what is AngloGold's response to this?

"And AngloGold's announcing its plans to reduce its hedging, driving up the cost of its own plans, may make sense too, as Murphy writes -- in the context of AngloGold's fending off acquisition by the super-hedged Barrick, for whom a higher gold price is death." Bill Murphy, LeMetropole May 1, 2002

Let us look once more at the hemorrhaging of Barrick.


THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH

May 6, 2002

John C. Doody, editor of the numbers-crunching Gold Stock Analyst newsletter, figures Barrick Gold in its latest reported quarter saw the mark-to-market value of its so-called hedge book drop to a negative $121 million as of March 31 from a positive $380 million on June 30, 2001.

Doody at Gold Stock Analyst puts the negative swing of the company's hedge book at $507 million. "This swing far offsets the net profits earned of $46 million in the first quarter of 2002 plus the $66 million in the third quarter of 2001 plus the $82 million in the fourth quarter of 2001. The net is a loss of $313 million."

"The sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at about $21 million an ounce," says Douglas Pollitt at Pollitt & Co. in Toronto. "Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative contracts) drop by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce, the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red." Gold prices this year have risen to $312 an ounce from $270 at the start of January

(WOW!!! Let's hear this again!!! Editor)

"Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative contracts) DROP by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce, the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."

"Pollitt calculates the notional value of Barrick's spot-deferred contracts at 18 million ounces. "Add to this another 5 million in written call options, (which the company now calls 'variable priced sales contracts'), and, one way or another, the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"

Is this the company that so confidently hedged every years worth of production for almost 20 years?

"�the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"

Well. I am at a loss for words.

What more can I say?

Only that anyone still holding shares in this immoral corrupt golden Enron Style Derivatives Fire Trap is a complete IDIOT!!!


Summary

Between Barrick & AngloGold, Barrick is expendable, but NOT AngloGold. Within the political ownership of AngloGold rests some of the most important & powerful financial entities in the world. AngloGold represents their personal gold mine. Barrick's (the chump changers) job now in the world scheme is to take the heat for the gold price manipulation scheme & to die gracefully with the coming gold price explosion.

Within another 3 years (probably less than that), between AngloGold & Barrick, only one company will remain standing & it will NOT be Barrick!!!

AngloGold will continue & Barrick will fail. This will be a convenient timely circumstance because by this time gold will be firmly in an advancing bull market & the public will be crying out for blood for the one most responsible for the gold price manipulation scheme.

"Anglogold wants the gold price to go much higher to stave off Barrick. Barrick remains heavily hedged. A soaring gold price is no great shakes to Barrick and could even do the company in if their hedge book blows up. In addition, if AngloGold covers its hedges as fast as possible, it will add fuel to the growing gold-buying power and be a factor in moving the gold price higher. The more Anglogold covers forwards and the higher its share price goes, the more difficult it will be for Barrick to take over AngloGold. For Anglogold will get too expensive."

"It is only a matter of time before the gold derivative bomb goes off and sinks the evil cabal forces."

Meanwhile, Barrick Gold continues to stink up the place.

Readers, it is important to digest these occurrences so that you can look with confidence at a rising gold price & know where to place your investments.

Part of the reason I am taking the time to go over so carefully & repetitively this message is because there are still so many emails I receive from readers asking me if the run on gold stocks will continue or if they are oversold.

A few years ago Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, sent out a message to the world and investors in general that everything would be done to play down the gold price over the next few years.

Now, a new message equivalent to the one Greenspan gave then is being issued & sent out around the word to all investors.

That message given by the most powerful of market leaders is sending out a message that gold is free & will be moving higher.

BOBBY GODSELL: -- EVERYTHING is in place for a firmer price.

Again, "Better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993, maybe even since 1987."

500 US DOLLAR PLUS GOLD PRICE HERE WE COME!!!

The dollar is beginning its long slow fall. I have written in earlier commentary & mentioned that through the pain of a wrecked US economy that Europe will shine brighter as a world power.

George Bush will go down in the history books as another Hoover. Bush's additional historical distinction will be as the president under whose watch the US gold disappeared.

"It has been said that the gradual closing of producer hedges is putting a floor under the gold price. Barrick's scramble for unhedged gold might attach rockets to the price." Bill Murphy 5-6-2002

A rising gold price will be the instrument used to calculate to what extent & degree the US economy becomes wrecked.
Golden Bear
(05/09/2002; 06:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75265)
Pizz (msg#: 75198) The War may be starting in earnest Keep the big picture in mind.
Very well said SIr,The key in this us vs them "crusade" as gunslinger Bush called it (wasn't that the Freudian slip of last year!). It will not be fought militarily however - why risk destroying your economy as well as your armed forces against the 800 pound gorilla, when you could just keep bying gold, knowing full well you'll drive up the price of bullion and slowly killing the enemy by a thousand cuts... one of those cuts will eventually be through the jugular, and the gorilla will go down gushing. Add a cut to a wrist (terrorist attack on american soil) just to accelerate the process if need be, and all this while increasing your wealth in the process....

Your later post (msg#: 75211) was perceptive also... the huge gaps before the open are usually done using futures.. to spike futures to that extent is no mean feat - your average Joe wasn't buying 100 lots yesterday morning.

All part of the game, and as you said so wisely, keeping the big picture in mind... Thanks.

Golden Bear
(05/09/2002; 06:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75266)
Rock (msg#: 75221)
You're so right. This morning on my way to work (down under), the lead news story was the powerful rallies overnight on Wall Street due to Cisco's positive earnings reports. Usually the market report is at the end of the bulletin.

It struck me immediately how powerful a hype message this was for the average investor - they'd think "wow, what a move, time to call my broker.... and in they go to get creamed by the next down move. Poor sods.

Cheers.
Waverider
(05/09/2002; 08:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75267)
Cisco casts a spell on the markets
http://globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/D,D/20020508/wmathmay8?hub=homeBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wmathmay8&date=20020508&archive=RTGAM&site=Front&ad_page_name=breakingnewsSnippit:
"Memo to investors: Cisco Systems is not the entire stock market, nor is it the entire U.S. economy. In fact, it isn't even a substantial part of either. In other words, just because Cisco had a half-decent quarter doesn't mean the U.S. economy is shifting into high gear. You wouldn't know that from looking at the markets Wednesday, however, because they were on a rocket ride � and the only fuel around was Cisco's report.

So was the market's response to Cisco a relief rally after weeks of gloom? Oversold conditions? Short-covering? [PPT?]Probably all of the above. But the most important question of all is whether it was just a 'head fake' or sucker rally � and on that front, the chances are pretty high that it was. What has changed compared with last week, when gloom was everywhere? Not much."

Waverider: GoldenBear - same here in Canuck land on the morning market report. Good to see someone at the Globe putting yesterday into perspective.
YGM
(05/09/2002; 08:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75268)
Canuck.....
Your Questions/Comments Yesterday.....Sorry for not giving more than a babbling answer to your two questions & commentary posed yesterday, but you left me in the dust with all I read. I can see you have an economists mind and might possibly be seeing things from a perspective gained over the last few years while the bubble was inflating. I am no economist nor do I understand the workings of such. This I believe....the Bubble is over!
This is what Greespan has known he had to accomplish for some time w/o putting SM's into crash mode....Gold has "NOT" even begun to have it's run....As for an alternative to the US dollar, well if one percieves that the US dollar is going to loose value whether intentionaly or by circumstance, then one would switch some dollars to PM's, Euro's, Dinars or maybe even Loonies. Just think repatriation on US dollars and how that would change the financial landscape for the US markets and investors....Think of the benefits to US producers with a lower US dollar....As for Banks reversing trends, well one who knows the history of Banks should realize they can be the most inventive and unpredictable of entities....Why they even close their doors and abandon those depositors who freely trust and give them the cash to be in business in the first place....Scotia in Argentina is a good recent example....No Canuck the highest powers want the bubble over, it's only the Fund managers and the Brokers handling the Trillions of Fed Bubble money floating around that want to keep the ship afloat....It ain't going to happen! The Banks can relieve rates all they want, they can issue Bonds til hell freezes over. The die is cast and they cast it with Greed! Remember 'North of 49'and his Banker Executive nieghbour? Remeber the comment he made to N 49? Is it happening already he asked! Well that was 3 years ago and now it is happening....I know a fellow who's father in law was a past CEO for Royal Bank, they both have said the only future was physical Gold/Silver as the system was then and now on the edge of Collapse/Restructuring....I know you've read most all the same info over the years as me, but I truly hope in the interest of a fellow Canadian you've read
http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htm

PS: Keep that AU/AG out of the so called Safety Deposit Boxes....History always repeats in one form or another....



YGM
(05/09/2002; 08:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75269)
Waverider.....
Cisco....You know if I was a wall st paper boy I'd be looking for that co like Cisco on a daily to weekly basis. Knowing that there's Billions of worried and homelss dollars looking for a temporary roost is all one needs to see in the bigger picture. In and out, in and out! Eventually all this cash will find a longer term home in PM's, but not before much of it evaporates back to the airy nothing it was created from in the first place....I'm possibly over simplistic but many are lost in the fog of the system! What people don't know or refuse to acknowledge is the simple fact the system may be on the verge of chrysalis....YGM
Mr Gresham
(05/09/2002; 09:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75270)
YGM
If I had time to read only one post today (for now, true), and one sentence in it, your "Eventually ..." below essentially sums up everything we've observed, and written here, over the years. On the run...
YGM
(05/09/2002; 09:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75271)
JPMC & Dinsa
From Mining Web Message Board.....Comment on Flap over gold derivative "firings"
Date 2002/05/09 Thu

Name Mark McCabe
Email Address ciudadhabana2000@yahoo.com
Subject

I ran the biggest gold hedging book for Chase right up until the merger with JPMorgan.
This is email correspondence from Bob Davis when I asked if Dinsa Mehta resigned. His response is below.
I'm sure u guys can work it out

Regards:

Mark McCabe.
....................................


MIXI,

Hoo yers gannin old son?

I'll reply more thoroughly another time. U still long gold...?....$311.00
trading my son.
I think 'resigned' is not quite the description some would use for the 'D'
man but a lot of changes going thru in Snr management.

Call you soon.

cheers...ta....errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...ye know...number one again...



YGM
(05/09/2002; 09:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75272)
Paul Van Eeden...Gold's Secular Bull Market........
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BB300315448?OpenDocumentPlus $400.00 p/oz Paul? Well that's a good start! Try 3 TIMES THAT in future years........YGM.
Old Yeller
(05/09/2002; 09:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75273)
Spotlight on the new Fed boys
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APNl6JxTRQmVybmFu
Boy,they lay it on pretty thick here about Greenspan's "inflation fighting" credentials.

Presided over the the biggest asset inflation binge
in recorded history,yet he's an inflation fighter?

Let's let this thing resolve itself first,the experiment is still ongoing.
Gandalf the White
(05/09/2002; 10:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75274)
<;-)
OK, SPOT, Time to start that new dance .. The NOON NY HOP !!
JUMP, SPOT
JUMP !!
<;-)
YGM
(05/09/2002; 10:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75275)
Very Worthy Repost.....From one of our Bretheren across the way....
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020509/financial_malaysia_amcham_1.html Mahathir-Bush meeting, REAL purpose of meeting is to discuss the GOLD DINAR!
(Gr8AuAgGuy) May 09, 12:03

Just how concerned are the PTB about GOLD and GOLD backed financial instruments?

Isn't a new financial GOLD backed Islamic DINAR being created in Malaysia? IMVHO Mahathir is being summoned to find out how far along they are in creating the GOLD DINAR! Most likely Mahathir is going to be threatened with a quick trip to the wood shed if he doesn't delay or destroy GOLD DINAR plans.

The spin is: "Malaysia gives short shrift to militancy and deviancy and in the case of terrorism, one of our strongest supporters has been Malaysia," he said. (Yeah, Malaysia is a military dictatorship)

During his visit from May 13-15, Mahathir is due to make a landmark visit to the White House to meet Bush and will also hold talks with other top U.S. officials. (top US officials = the ones who can hurt you!)

Electrical and electronics account for over 60 percent of the total goods sold by Malaysia, of which about a fifth ends up in the United States." (The IT and Tech sectors are swirling in the sewage systems).

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020509/financial_malaysia_amcham_1.html

YGM
(05/09/2002; 10:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75276)
Mahethir Mohamed & Gold Dinar
http://www.tv3.com.my/news/nl/march2002/26_news1.htmlFor a little background...Link
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(05/09/2002; 11:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75277)
With gold you can live life like you MEAN it...
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

YGM
(05/09/2002; 12:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75278)
Watch For the Next Move of Brokerage Houses........
(After they re-position house accounts in PMs.......)As the PM stocks go higher in value , so too will the Miners IPO's and Stock Offerings go ballistic...As with the Dot Com craze the Brokerage Houses will be tripping over each other in their haste to gain commissions...Public offerings mean $$$$ in company coffers both by sales and participation and that means promotion of same....Hence companies like Morgan et al will be on the bandwagon driven by Goldbugs....Heck they may even hatch another BRE-X ...
....Like I say 'History Repeats' And we're at the party long before the Band...Watch and see if the spin doctors aren't yapping about Gold on CNBC 6 mo from now......YGM.


"GO GOLD, GO PHYSICAL, & GO GATA" & Goin for a Cerveza!
Aristotle
(05/09/2002; 12:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75279)
YGM, you old goat! You're (hypothetically) wealthy and you don't even know it!
Let's invite everybody to have a closer look at your comments from yesterday.

Hey everybody! Have a look at this hypothetical, and tell me what you see.

Do you see a man who is a simple $10 profit away from being a half-millionaire, or do you see a man who is truly wealthy?

Our most worthy Sir YGM said: "if I had 50,000 oz of Au and had a $10.00 profit I'd probably sell and forget all this financial crap and crime perpetrated by scumbag bankers...Kinda get on with what's left of my life @ age 53."

You know I luv ya, so don't take this wrong when I say (hypothetically, of course) "Good God, Man! What are you thinking?!" (Or maybe you were playing devil's advocate? If so, I missed it.)

Profits-schmawfits. No, seriously. In my mind, having the comfort and security of 50,000 ounces of Gold wholly-owned in your possession makes you a VERY wealthy man any way you slice it.

But let's boil it down to dollars, since that seems to be your affliction for the moment. If indeed Gold was just a trading vehicle for you (in this hypothetical,) buying low and selling higher (for $10 profit per ounce) would net you $half-a-mil. Not bad.

But profits or no, and keeping this in dollar terms (because those 50,000 ounces don't seem to impress you very much in their own terms,) that quantity of Gold currently represents $15 million in purchasing power. Most importantly, it's a tangible asset, like your land, that can't be destroyed overnight by a simple national policy change or loss of confidence in the banker's game.

You knew this.

Gold. Keep you some. --- Aristotle
YGM
(05/09/2002; 12:58:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75280)
Aristotle.....
From one ole Goat to Another :>)Lets just say there ain't no 50K oz and if there was I'd keep 49 of them and have a little rest in the sunshine....
But as for wealthy, well my health and that of my family is great and I'm keeping what little AU/AG I have set aside as per a simple fellow with simple needs I guess (hypotheticly) I'm wealthy.....Sure could stand a little more time on the Mojos River (Bolivia)tho.....Nothing like seeing that yellow in the Dredge Runs and no Yukon Brrrrrr Cold! One Cerveza and my daydreams head 4000 mi south :))

Regards....YGM.

TownCrier
(05/09/2002; 13:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75281)
Is this really what the "gold as money" folks want to see more of?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020509/markets_precious_5.htmlNEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - ...Some borrowing of 10-year gold suggested a producer was putting on a long-term hedge to lock in prices for gold reserves, one dealer said.
-----------

Bottom line: Gold as property is the better usage. As "property" its supply can't be inflated through the banking system. As "money" it can -- as we see here in this article.

R.
Rock
(05/09/2002; 14:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75282)
Yesterdays celebrations todays deliberations
Hate to say i said so but I pegged it right on the nose yesterday concerning the stock market. It couldn't even sustain for over a day, what a joke! Cisco's shoulders just arn't big enough to carry the weight of the entire sector. It almost looked like this dying market took one last big gasp of oxygen and appeared for a brief moment that it was going to get back up and fight but then it just fell back over like a dying man on an EKG machine that just went flat line.

Meanwhile on concerning the ME, the media is now reporting how Arafat said no more bombing in his arabic tongue, what wonderful great news did you hear that knights and ladies? I'm surprised the markets didn't soar to new heights since there don't appear to be no imminent sign of war now that Arafat made his grand speech. I think we can all sleep better now with those comforting words from the former pultzer prize winner of the PLO.

Cheers,

Rock
USAGOLD
(05/09/2002; 15:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75283)
Sierra Madre. . ."Brazil's Cardoso slams behaviour of investors. . ."///////////// ALL: Old Brazilian Gold Coins to be Offered
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020509/economy_brazil_cardoso_1.htmlWhat do you think of the theory making the rounds in the gold market that we may see the Domino Effect in Latin America -- Argentina, then Brazil, then Mexico? Just saw the reports about Cardozo complaining about Brazilian debt being downgraded.

"Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and ABN Amro advised clients to cut Brazilian debt in their portfolios. . ."

All: Soon as Randy get's the backroom work completed we will be offering some one-half ounce Brazilian coins from the 1890s. These are beautiful coins from Brazi's Republican period. There are only a handful available and we have never had anything like this before. I would suggest that anyone who bought the Uruguayan 5 Peso coins and the Argentinos, add these while you can. We will be offering sets of six coins, I believe it is, various dates in the 1890s. Some are scarcer than others but we will offer them all at the same price. The sets will carry a slight discount/encouragement for those with a collector bent who'd like to have all the dates we are offering. We will only have 20 of those so I suggest you act quickly. I think we all know by know how these things go. If its popular, it might only last a few days. Beyond the 20 sets (first-come, first served) you will be order from the hoard whatever date(s) you wish. I think you are going to like this offer.

So get ready. . . . .

Randy is working diligently behind the scenes to make ready for this interesting offer.
slingshot
(05/09/2002; 15:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75284)
Siege Engine
Time Is Running Out.The Lord of the Castle has burned the Midnight Oil with his Knights and has failed to comprise a viable battle plan.
All of strategies revolved in only the defense of his citidel and with the size of his garrison provided very little offensive capabilities.
The trebuchet has been effective as it relentlessly batters the wall below the tower.
It is morning and the first light of day begins to shine into the room and replaces the candlelight upon his maps.
Suddenly, there is an alarm for all to man the walls.
There is more excitement. As he ascends the stairs he can hear the comments of his men and he knowns fear when he hears it.

He looks out beyond the field and into the rising sun.
For a momment he is blinded but soon sees the open green field below and what now stands just in front of the treeline far away.

The Goldbugs have formed ranks. Three and four deep and the full lenght of the treeline. They are armed with shields and swords. Bows and maces. Standing shoulder to shoulder.
They begin to bang their shields and shout.
FREE GOLD, FREE GOLD, FREE GOLD.

The Lord of the castle turns and looks into the face of his Knight standing next to him.
Sierra Madre
(05/09/2002; 15:50:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75285)
"Domino effect" to affect Brazil and Mexico, after Argentina...

It seems to me that Mexico is in a special situation at the moment - oil is strong and that is a very important factor for the Mexican economy; so that would help contain the "contagion". Also, Mexico is next door to the U.S. and is being wooed by the Establishment. Everything is cozy and Mexicans are good boys, they do their homework and behave themselves. Good marks for them, good credit ratings for the nice little boys. All this is preparation for takeover, IMHO.

Argentina is left twisting in the wind. It's a matter of "triage". You know, when there is an accident, the medics look over the wounded and they sort them into groups: the dying are just left to die. No use wasting time and resources on them.

Scotiabank leaving Argentina, just closed its doors and said goodbye! This is without precedent, so far as I can see. These people really need silver desperately! But, not a single brain there to suggest it.

My wife says the people there are broken; not only broke, but broken. A human tragedy.

Brazil might cave in. When governments start blaming investors etc. you just know that something is going to happen. Of course, with paper money, what else but ANOTHER collapse? When will people learn??

Sierra
kludge
(05/09/2002; 16:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75286)
@Rock
Yes, it's a sad fact too that the price of gold tends to flourish in bad times. Peace and prosperity are bearish for gold. This, IMO, explains gold's recent rally. Sadly, it'll probably go higher once Israel responds to the latest suicide bombers. I was hoping to keep adding to the collection at less than $300 delivered - but it seems pretty obvious that many will lose much before we get back to those days again.

Golden Bear
(05/09/2002; 16:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75287)
kludge (msg#: 75286)
"Peace and prosperity are bearish for gold."Greetings Kludge,

the prosperity in your quote is illusory, built by decades of inflation of the money supply of countries around the world, fooling their populations that they are becoming wealthier year over year...until BAM! - Another Argentina occurs, leaving most with very little.

Nothing is bearish for the value of gold bullion, only paper gold, which is also part of the grand illusion.

Cheers.
Belgian
(05/09/2002; 16:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75288)
The Gold-Conglomerate and the TG's Architects.....
Got inspired by the Arctifox posting (Thanks Sir) on James E. Sinclair (Mister Gold) and Chris Thompson's (WGC) statements as outgoing CEO of Gold Fields :
The Gold conglomerate is suspecting the existance of Architects (builders) that will use/incorporate Gold as a building material, with new applications, into the coming *new* currency construction ! Chris Thompson wants to make it possible for *INVESTORS* to buy and hold (!!!) Physical Gold. You don't decide such a policy lightly without some assurance (probability) that it will be (remain) succesfull well into ther future. It is some evidence for a growing concensus on Gold's future, without to much rear-mirror looking. Miners with their paper-shares of risky underground gold want to create another kind of paper, representing more safe (?) aboveground refined Gold.
A first step to connect "Funds" (pools) more directly to liquid Physical as an *INVESTMENT* and not as a strictly currency hedging (speculative) instrument.

...WE NEED TO MAKE IT (GOLD) POSSIBLE FOR THEM (investment universe) TO OWN GOLD !!! (Thompson)

An old timer poster once said that Gold was/is NOT an *Investment* ! I still don't agree with it, and probably never will. Thompson seems to share that *investment* argument and will most probably succeed in bringing the message across. He (they) must feel the backing of the Architects !? And all this while the precious is so heavy for its humble price...smile with me Aristotle.
Canuck
(05/09/2002; 16:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75289)
@ YGM
Dear Sir,

I also wish to apologize to you (and anyone else reading my distorted rant yesterday).

I almost went beserk this morning and swung a load into tech stocks. I shook my head, walked from the PC and went to work. The power of sidelined money ('cash') at this moment in time is scarey. We saw a hint of the mountain of cash yesterday. Where (and when) will this money be deployed?

I don't remember North of 49's neighbour, please remind me. Can you elaborate on the R.B CEO?

Canuck
Mr Gresham
(05/09/2002; 17:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75290)
LeSin
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/vaughn051002.htmlThe Vaughn piece was great this morning -- good catch! All about the contending PTBs and how Barrick is set up to take the fall, while Anglogold goes on to carry the flag for the winning factions -- this is how these things grind out in other industries (and economic wars), so it rings true for the gold industry too. While our fortunes ride as the froth on the waves thrown out by these big tankers steaming by...
Mr Gresham
(05/09/2002; 17:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75291)
Antal Fekete: Revisionist View of the Great Depression
http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/Fekete050702.htmA must read. Could start up discussion of fundamental fundamentals, "like in the old days" around here. This guy is on to something -- I wonder if there's a critical response to his thoughts, which I have not read elsewhere. The implications for the present are, of course, for a Greater Depression as a reflection of a greater destruction of capital.

I'm halfway through; all I can think of off the top of my head is, if you have an annihilation of productive capital, you are left only with a certain collection of tangible assets, an uncertain ownership and debt structure, and a question about how to regain productivity.

An "activist" government is likely to repeat Roosevelt's errors, and keep things muffled. End up with a "mafia economy" like Russia's in the 90's. Sure would like to hear what is developing out of that.
YGM
(05/09/2002; 17:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75292)
Canuck....
Hi...Hey no apol'gs needed for anyone I can see! Sidelined money? Well others here (everyone) besides me could answer that better than I, but I feel in my gut that it's jumping in and out of anything that has a chance of even small moves. If the volume is big then they can shift out quickly. Hence the distortion we see when the SM's go up one day and down the next! Like a rabbit running from a fox and every hole he jumps down is crowded. I think smart money is also always patient money and has been moving to PMs for awhile and they've got the same befefits as those who tagged on the coat-tails of Gold Manipulation scam. That is they know the Cabal will dump all over the longs and shake out the weak hands repeatedly. Every time Gold & PM stocks move up they get the velvet hammmer and somebody gets cheap entry again...Just a vicious cycle! As for the N 49 over the fence conversation with the Banker exec nieghbour...Well that was heresay but from a rather good source and seemed very relevant and real at the time....When
North 49 asked him again days later to elaborate on the comment "Oh No is it happening already" he declined. This comment was made because Gold was having a run & GATA was just getting in full swing, and the Banker seemed to sense a calamity was going to happen and he'd known it would someday come.... Rather like the conversations I've had with the son in law of a long past CEO of R Bank Canada. He said his father in law has coached him for years to invest in PM's for the long haul and keep very little in Banks and paper....He told him that GATA was dead correct in their assumptions with respect to Gold Manipulation and the Bankers knew at some point the cat would be out of the bag.
I suggest you read "The Sting" (Mr Johnson's Letter to his son) if you can find it in the Gold-Eagle archives........
PS: I think my R B guy is in the know as he deals in 100's of tons of Gold....All I got was advice :>))
YGM
(05/09/2002; 17:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75293)
Canuck....The Sting.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/birch030498.htmlBTW...this letter has probably caused more controversy than most any article I've read.....Not withstanding Reg Howes and GATA papers......YGM.
YGM
(05/09/2002; 18:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75294)
"NEW"....Who Controls The Federal Reserve?...Part 1.
http://www.rense.com/general24/whocontrolsFED.htmEXCERPT:

Now that we know the Federal Reserve is a privately owned, for-profit corporation, a natural question would be: who OWNS this company? Peter Kershaw provides the answer in "Economic Solutions" where he lists the ten primary shareholders in the Federal Reserve banking system.

1) The Rothschild Family - London 2) The Rothschild Family - Berlin 3) The Lazard Brothers - Paris 4) Israel Seiff - Italy 5) Kuhn-Loeb Company - Germany 6) The Warburgs - Amsterdam 7) The Warburgs - Hamburg 8) Lehman Brothers - New York 9) Goldman & Sachs - New York 10) The Rockefeller Family - New York

Now I don't know about you, but something is terribly wrong with this situation. Namely, don't we live in AMERICA? If so, why are seven of the top ten stockholders located in FOREIGN countries? That's 70%! To further convey how screwed-up this system is, Jim Marrs provides the following data in his phenomenal book, "Rule By Secrecy." He says that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which undeniably controls the other eleven Federal Reserve branches, is essentially controlled by two financial institutions:

1) Chase-Manhattan (controlled by the Rockefellers) - 6,389,445 shares - 32.3%
2) Citbank - 4,051,851 shares - 20.5%

Thus, these two entities control nearly 53% of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.
Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 19:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75295)
CISCO'S EARNINGS REPORT VIEWED AS A SHELL GAME By JOHN CRUDELE
http://www.nypost.com/business/47539.htm
Snippit:

May 9, 2002 -- SYNTHETIC leases come and they go, but they apparently don't leave a trace. In the world of pro forma earnings - which I believe is Latin for "companies can report whatever they want" - nothing can come between what a company says and what Wall Street wants to hear.


Black Blade: I brought up Cisco's "synthetic lease" issue before and I had thought about again when Cisco brought up their earnings "Home Run", but then I decided why should I be the "turd in the punch bowl". I also thought about the non-expensing of options. Whatever. They are not alone. Microsoft, Novell, and Oracle also has engaged in this shell game. But hey, who cares about "off-the-books" accounting anyway � just ask Enron.

Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 19:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75296)
U.S. Economy: Number of Workers on Unemployment Rolls Swell
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNqW7xVAVS5TLiBF
Snippit:

Washington, May 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. worker claims for jobless benefits fell less than expected last week and the number of Americans collecting aid rose to a 19-year high, suggesting the labor market isn't improving as the economy recovers from recession.

The unemployment rate, which rose to 6 percent in April, a 7 1/2-year high, may climb as high as 6.5 percent in coming months as companies are slow to hire, Rupkey said. A labor market that shows few signs of improving helps explain why Federal Reserve policy makers this week left the overnight bank lending rate at a 40-year low of 1.75 percent, where it's been since December.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said job growth is critical to the recovery because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy. ``Perhaps most central to the outlook for consumer spending will be developments in the labor market,'' he told Congress last month.



Black Blade: Aside from there being no economic recovery, the "Bone Pile" is at recession levels. 19 years ago (1983) the US was mired in a very deep recession. Then too, Pres. Reagan extended unemployment benefits. The point that should be foremost in every ones minds is that today the data is massaged with various filters (such as "seasonality") that are a government scam designed to hide the God awful truth. The US propaganda arm � the Bureau of Labor Statistics engages in this same activity in calculating the CPI and PPI, among other government statistics. The BLS could put Arthur Andersen to shame. Just wait until the recently announced layoffs begin to occur.

YGM
(05/09/2002; 19:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75297)
Canuck....All...One Last Link & I'll Butt Out....
http://www.devvy.com/churchill_19991229.htmlThis is a keeper......"The Greatest Story Never Told"

Winston Churchill and the Crash of 1929.....

The more this stuff gets around the more folks will own Gold and Silver....The Banker Cabal hates transparency and the Web puts the light of day on anyones screen that takes the time to learn the truth....YGM
Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 19:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75298)
Continuing claims at 19-year high - "Bone Pile" Files
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=dhtml&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B5ECF438D%2D93F7%2D4899%2D85F6%2D81B09E610331%7D
Import prices jump as dollar weakens, oil surges

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The number of American workers receiving state unemployment benefits rose by 61,000 to a 19-year high of 3.8 million in recent weeks, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Black Blade: A song for the BLS � "No Where To Run, No Where To Hide".

YGM
(05/09/2002; 19:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75299)
Devvy Kidd Article Index
http://www.devvy.com/money0.htmlHope somebody reads this stuff. Some here have for years but it should always be shown anew, for those who have not...YGM.
Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 19:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75300)
IBM workers fear the axe
http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/09/technology/ibm/index.htm
Employees union says layoffs expected to amount to as much as 10% of U.S. work force.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Workers at International Business Machines Corp. are bracing for layoffs that could affect as much as 10 percent of the company's U.S. work force, according to a representative of an IBM employees union. "People are getting very nervous inside IBM," said Lee Conrad, national coordinator for the Alliance@IBM, an affiliate of the Communications Workers of America representing about 4,000 IBM employees. "There's a real sense of foreboding," Conrad said.

Conrad said some IBM divisions, including its server and microelectronics divisions, already have begun quietly telling some employees to expect layoffs starting as early as next week. "We expect announcements to start coming next week and continuing for the next three weeks after that," Conrad said. "We're hearing anything up to about 10 percent across the board." Roughly 160,000 of IBM's global work force is based in the U.S.


Black Blade: We are looking at perhaps 16,000 marched off to the growing "Bone Pile". I brought this possibility up about IBM a few days ago. It finally has come. The earnings picture for IBM is � shall I say it? � "GRIM"

Mr Gresham
(05/09/2002; 19:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75301)
YGM == The Sting
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/birch030498.htmlI remember that one from back when we were first getting started -- makes more sense now to me -- sounds like someone else we know, who may even know some of the same people. Far-fetched as a plan to be kept secret, but maybe the vanity of some people just makes it "unthinkable" and easy to "hide" even if the action is right there under their noses.

Others know they can switch sides ("Ah, yes; our chalet at Gstaad!") when they need to; others may believe they were giving Americans a better life for awhile -- who can argue with "Good Times"? "It's Morning in America."
goldquest
(05/09/2002; 19:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75302)
Frantic Friday Approching
Gaza Strip errupts, Dow and Naz loses all of their gains made Wed.
Gold crawls out of the foxhole and continues to march. Gold closes at $316.00 + - .50
Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 20:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75303)
Bush's master oil plan
http://japantoday.com/e/?content=comment&id=180
Snippit:

With so many new international crises erupting every day, it is hard to detect any clear forward direction to American U.S. foreign policy. At times, it appears that providing a response to the latest upheaval is about all that Washington can accomplish. But beneath the surface of day-to-day crisis management, one can see signs of an overarching plan for U.S. policy: a strategy of global oil acquisition.

In recent weeks, the Bush administration has taken bold steps to implement this strategy in several far-flung regions of the world. In the Caspian Sea basin � said to harbor the second biggest reservoir of untapped petroleum after the Persian Gulf � the United States is building new military bases and providing training to local defense forces. In Colombia, U.S.-equipped government forces will soon be guarding the Occidental Petroleum Company's Cano Limon oil pipeline. And in Venezuela � America's third largest supplier of oil � U.S. embassy personnel reportedly met with leaders of an abortive coup against President Hugo Chavez.

But it is also true that the areas that are garnering the greatest degree of attention from Washington � the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin, and the Andean region � are also areas that figure prominently in the administration's long-term energy strategy. The aim of this strategy is simple: to procure as much of the world's oil for ravenous U.S. markets as possible. With domestic U.S. production facing progressive decline and national consumption rising with every passing day, the United States must obtain more and more of its oil from abroad.


Black Blade: The major point is that the US is running out of "cheap energy" that is easy to get and abundant in supply. The need for energy to fuel the US economy is critical and as described in the article we will use military force at all costs to get it. Without an adequate supply of energy, the US is just another Third World country.

Nomad
(05/09/2002; 20:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75304)
Tax Collections Down and Down and Down ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/09/business/09CND-TAX.html

ASHINGTON, May 9 � The Congressional Budget Office said today that tax receipts through April were $75 billion below its projections, insuring that the federal budget deficit this year will be far bigger than anticipated.

Confirming preliminary figures made public by government officials several weeks ago, the budget office said receipts were $60 billion lower than projected just in April, the month in which revenues typically surge as individuals file their income tax returns.

The shortfall reflected the downturn in the economy last year, especially after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Economists said the problem appeared to stem in particular from the lackluster stock market, which generated little in the way of capital gains and depressed compensation among people who are paid partly with stock options.

Before the shortfall became apparent, the budget office had been projecting a deficit of $46 billion for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30. A $75 billion shortfall would bring the deficit to $121 billion. The total federal budget this year is about $2.1 trillion.

But the deficit is likely to be even bigger, perhaps by as much as $150 billion, by the time the government closes its books on the year, economists said.

EagleOne
(05/09/2002; 21:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75305)
Fifty seven years ago
http://www.lodz.pdi.net/pigulki/issue19/p19sikorski.htmlDo any of our world-wide posters remember the anniversary of V-E day? I propose that few here, if any, would be collecting gold if Nazi Germany had won the war and if the United States had not rebuilt Europe through the Marshall Plan. US bashers sometime need to be reminded to be thankful for their very existance. End of rant. I will not comment further or reply to dissenters.
YGM
(05/09/2002; 21:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75306)
Mr. Gresham...
Yes I agree wholeheartedly, it does seem much more relative with what we now see going on ie: Japan etc. I had to re-read myself as it's been a couple years since last read.
Yes Vanity and narrow mindedness make their mission much too easy. It does sound like a couple fellows we know :>)
It sure reinforced my belief and perception of other info I've rec'd.....It is still not easy to believe or comprehend even after all these years of reinforcement at many levels.....As FOA likes to say..."Interesting Times We Live In, Yes"....We trudge on & "PERSEVERE" together!
YGM
(05/09/2002; 21:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75307)
EagleOne...
Speaking for myself only...I have the greatest respect for the men & women of the US armed forces....I learned from my father the reality of what the USA stood for and what a world we'd have had if not for the tenacity, courage and lives lost by them. I think one must not confuse criticism of US monetary policy with our love of the greatest free nation the world has ever seen....I'll stand up for an honest American anyday, anywhere!...Regards & Good to see you here...You remind me of an old friend at Gold Eagle...(goArmy)....YGM.
JCTex
(05/09/2002; 21:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75308)
YGM (05/09/02; 18:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75294)
I won't tell anybody what else is on that site, if you won't. Michael might jerk our privileges, here, if he finds out.

At best, he might make us wear tinfoil helmets when we post here.

If the tax-paying public ever gets off its dead bu## and figures this Federal Reserve thing out, they will revolt. I hope I live long enough to see it. It's deserved.
Black Blade
(05/09/2002; 22:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75309)
May Department Stores to Lay Off 1,200 Kaufmann's Employees
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020509/200205091230000642_1.html
PITTSBURGH -- May Department Stores Co . (MAY) will lay off 1,200 employees at its Kaufmann's stores as part of the recent consolidation of Kaufmann's and Filene's stores.


Black Blade: The ones who are left will be more "productive". I guess next month's productivity data will improve. 1,200 off to the growing "Bone Pile".
Pizz
(05/09/2002; 22:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75310)
Confirmation of the coming Storm
Or when the short term hype over the last 9 month causes more pain and suffering than prudence, truth, and intelligent management could have done a meer year ago.

A story:

A short 9 months ago(prior to 911) a new and somewhat controversial CFO sat in board meeting and advised the stockholders that in his opinion, the 20 year expansion that their industry had been priviledged to participate within, was coming to an end.

The advice given was to consolidate, shore up cash resources, cut marketing expenses, and forego the expansion plans currently on the agenda. The major stockholders were all successful marketing types, more worried about their tax bite resulting from an excessive amount of short term debt accumulated over the past 20 years that was returning a compounded 5% annual return. The businesses had been financed with short term debt rather than capital, and all profits had been rolled into more entities, and more short term debt, and more profits up to that time.

Needless to say, the standard media/economic hype we (still)listen to everyday was thrown back at this CFO, and being new, his career at that time was challenged to say the least, and his advice was treated as as something less than the little boy who cried "wolf".

As September rolled around, business was flat to declining, but with The FED having lowered interest rates aggressivly all year, the turnaround was just around the corner (right!). The stockholders knew cash flow had deterioriated, but not to worry, the FED induced recovery was just around the corner. Besides, even though sales were down, interest on the short term debt was so low, that inventories were being increased in anticipation of the boom to come.

Then 911. No problem the stockholders said, the FED is taking care of us, and it's short term. Besides, so what if we go to war, war time economies are bullish - where private industry slows, the government will pick up the pace. What? Stop the expansion and take a loss as the CFO recommends? If we do that, we won't be able to meet our current expectations for 2003. What, we have a cash flow problem? Don't worry, it's there if we need it. What? You say we need capital rather than more short term debt? We haven't for the last 20 years, you'll just have to get along with what you have and we can always borrow more.

Well, now it's a short 6 months later, and the stockholders are now looking at their cash position, their exponetially increasing losses, a refinancing program that took 3 months to put together, and the cash generated from the refinance which will be burned within the next four months.

Their current cure? Cut administrative expense 30% which will have about the same net effect as losing 99 dollars instead of $100. But the good news? The CFO will not be able to function, and the financial reporting will deteriorate to the point that they will be able to plug their own numbers into the financial statements in a vain attempt to keep their financing lines intact (with a little Enron type accounting).
_______________________________________

Think the above is fiction and it's happening world wide? Think again. I'm as bout as close to this CFO as you can possibly get, all I have to do is look in the mirror.

Pizz


Pizz
(05/09/2002; 22:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75311)
Correction to last post
Insert "not" before "happening" in the last paragraph.

Pizz
Mr Gresham
(05/09/2002; 22:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75312)
Pizz!!!
http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/Fekete050702.htmYOU'RE the guy! So much of what you arrive at comes from common-sense (and personal experience in) accounting -- look at the Antal Fekete link and see if he's on track with the "Law of Assets" and "Law of Liabilities", if there IS a silent plundering of productive assets by balance sheet transfers as interest rates fall (artificially via Fed monetizing, and gold prohibition or inhibition)...
Horatio
(05/09/2002; 22:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75313)
Barrick & Anglo
I posted here about a year ago that hedgeing was a plot by S.A.mines to get assets out of S.Africa.The idea was to borrow gold from central banks ,give them a mortgage on the mines assets.Then sell the borrowed gold and transfer the cash out of the country to avoid confiscation from the Marxist S.African politicans.The confiscators would get the mines alright,but 10 years of future production would belong to the bank!A brilliant ploy!!My theory was when they got all they could get ,hedging would be over!!
Here's the final part of the plot....Barrick merges with Anglo,Anglo transfers real assets to Canada...Barrick transfers hedges to S.Africa and spins off that division back to S.Africa for the final coup ...The time is near....
Waverider
(05/09/2002; 22:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75314)
Japan's rating wars: Whose default is it?
http://www.atimes.com/japan-econ/DE09Dh01.htmlSnippit:
"It's time to give Japan a break on falling sovereign ratings - like maybe another decade, to be fair - and give the lousy economy opportunity to right itself. And to really square things, just roll the ratings back up to AAA, where the world's second largest (and least likely to default) economy belongs; not surfing rat-bottom in the pile of Group of Seven industrial countries.

That is just about the gist of the message the Japanese government sent in what appear to be unprecedented letters to the top three international rating agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings - just before Japan's Golden Week holidays began in late April."

Waverider: A good article on the consequences of another downgrade of Japanese government bonds. Moody's is expected to downgrade to single-A as early as next week, putting Japan on the same level as Hungary, Malaysia and Botswana.
Pizz
(05/09/2002; 23:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75315)
Mr. Gresham
Re: The Fekete link.

I've read this before, it's extremely long, confusing, and has the tendencies to mix a lot of apples and oranges together. It has some merit, but I really question the practicality of the message. I'll try to give it some thought this weekend and summarize, but keep in mind, it may be an accountant(s) that finally bring our current financial world to it's end, but it will only be by showing that the emporer really has no clothes. (Typing and spelling are really a _____ when your mad and a few scotches into the wind) Cash is what kills commerce, and the only reason Enron failed was their ability to keep borrowing was severly curtailed.

I'm probably rambling, so I better read some light stuff and get off the keyboard.

Pizz
YGM
(05/09/2002; 23:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75316)
JCTex (05/09/02; 21:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 75308)
I Still Have my Tin Hat.....Curious @ GE Forum gave me one years ago....I wear it when I go to various sites looking for Gold among Pyrites...
(grin) It keeps the Alien Bankers from reading my mind and
deflects brain pulse weapons quite well....Tinfoil works also, but hammered Gold is best.....YGM :>)
Mr Gresham
(05/10/2002; 00:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75318)
Pizz
Ok, well, I hadn't guessed if you had -- this seems a new version, but contains the same "cause of Depression" from a month or two ago.

The stringent requirement that all assets be booked at least favorable of cost or market, as with liabilities does give room for some legit fudging methinks, as you're allowing for a dissolution that will likely not happen before many profitable years.

The idea of lower rates raising the liability of existing debt -- only if you have to buy it back at market in the interim(?) does it hurt -- you redeem at maturity at face, or some are even callable. Or they re-fi, as done today. Performing debt, never expected in repayment.

But the idea of giving the bond speculators a run with the national checkbook, new ground, no?

More thoughts, but I'm off to Z-land, too...
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 03:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75319)
Gold Higher, Oil Higher, and USD Getting Hammered
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is higher this morning (btw - look at the PM lease rates), oil is recovering toward $28/bbl, and the USD is getting hammered while all major currencies are rising.

Also in the news - Boeing is under investigation for "cooking the books". Yep - another accounting scandal is breaking this morning.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 03:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75320)
Lease Rates
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
PM Lease rates are all up across the board. Pt is still at high levels - mostly due to there being very little delivery out of Russia, depleted Russian stockpiles and some occasional labor problems in SA.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 03:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75321)
Red Around The World
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Markets everywhere are in the red. US futures are mixed so far. Actually, a slightly positive market futures at the open has been negative for the day. There is no positive news to trade on so far and the outlook for the US economy is "GRIM".

As always - get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash stash for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods program. In short - prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade
Operative
(05/10/2002; 03:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75322)
US Treasury Secretary Heads to Africa
http://www.insightmag.com/news/251359.htmlSecretary is "concerned" about poverty in the region.
This article is a prime example of government doublespeak.
Note to all in the region: Run, Hide your GOLD!
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 03:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75323)
IBM to Lay Off Up to 8,000
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020510/tech_ibm_report_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - IBM Inc. plans to lay off as many as 8,000 workers, or 2.5 percent of its worldwide staff, as the leading computer maker battles a slump in technology spending, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Friday.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.

Also, just out in the news. The mailbox bomber said that see was trying to make a "smiley face" on the map (bombing pattern). There you go people � and you thought they only come out at night.

Operative
(05/10/2002; 03:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75324)
Can't Wait To See The Wall Street Spinmiesters Dance To This
AOLTIMEWARNER BONDS
REDUCED TO JUST ABOVE JUNK

(Headliner from Drudge this AM)
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 03:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75325)
Dollar Struggles Again Pre-Wall Street
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020510/markets_forex_1.html
By Natsuko Waki

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar came back under pressure across the board on Friday after a fall on Wall Street, although its losses against the yen were held in check by talk of an imminent credit rating downgrade for Japan.


Black Blade: There has been a rumor floating around the last couple of weeks that Japanese debt will be downgraded a couple of notches. Some speculation is that Japanese debt is no better than "Junk". Gold buying should still be strong and any significant downgrade will likely stir up more Japanese Gold buying.

Operative
(05/10/2002; 03:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75326)
Now Here is Something you don't often see...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/cgi-bin/regionalind.cgiAll Regional Indices Bleeding RED. Looks like another Malox day for the street.
LeSin
(05/10/2002; 05:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75327)
Russian Oil Most Tempting - Cheap In The Beginning - Then Bang! The Bear Will Demand Euro Payment
http://www.russianobserver.com/economics/article/15317.html
Russia's new role: "Stable Source" for Western World's Oil
Ocean pipeline plan "for gas to Japan"

by Michael Stedman
issued on 05.07.2002 (MST)


[printable version]

Energy ministers of the G8 industrial nations have confirmed "Russia's new role as a major source of stable energy for Western economies in the future," a report said yesterday (Monday) after they met in Detroit.

Russia's envoy, Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, used the forum to confirm the state was keen and set to see the industry's activities upgraded, Moscow analysts noted in a report saying the minister said the government sought to encourage Western investment in the sector to boost production.

This would also help develop export markets for crude supplies as well as higher-earning value-added oil products, he was quoted as saying. Yusufov's comments give further substance to remarks already on record from the minister that Russia sought expanded refining capacity to produce multiple products sheltering it from swings in an unpredictable market for crude.

This has already led to reportedly dramatic increases in fuel oil, diesel and gasoline exports to European markets.

A research note on the Detroit meeting from Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog quoted reports saying Yusufov believed the United States could become a "partner allocating considerable financing to the energy sector of the Russian economy."

Analysts also noted comments that the minister had called on the European Union to increase its own investment spending in the Russian energy sector to ensure growth and stability of supply.

Several recent reports have referred to new moves under way to develop Russia's oil industry, pursuing what observers believe is its goal of becoming the global industry's giant, surpassing even Saudi Arabia's paramount position.

Russia's February move to establish a working group including leaders of the country's top oil companies has geared up the drive to address structural problems, according to observers from respected U.S. analytical think-tank Stratfor.com.

Acquisitions, infrastructure upgrades and new field development in northwest Russia, Siberia, Central Asia, the Balkans and Central Europe were powering the push ahead, they said.

Further news now from the Detroit meeting said that to cut transportation costs, Russia had plans to build new deepwater terminals and ports on the shores of the northerly Barents Sea.

And reports attributed to the newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun added that Russia would ask Japan to join it in a major natural gas pipeline project linking Japan and a Russian city.

The plan was unveiled, Troika Dialog said, when the Russian energy minister met Japanese Economics Minister Takeo Hiranuma in Detroit. The project is said to entail transporting natural gas from Nakhodka, facing the Sea of Japan, by way of sea-floor pipelines.

Other moves analyzed by Stratfor a few days ago said Russia and Croatia had now agreed to link up two of their oil transport networks, increasing Russian oil companies' export capacity and boosting Russia's economic presence in the Balkans.

The two state-owned transport firms Transneft and JANAF plan to join together their Druzhba and Adria networks in what was seen as a multiple coup for Moscow, a commentary said.

This would mean an almost wholesale switch for Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia and Yugoslavia from Middle Eastern to Russian oil supplies. Total demand of around 250,000 barrels a day was set to increase quickly as the states recovered from the Balkan wars and lined up for European Union membership, the analysts said.

Russian producers would win permanent access to the Adriatic Sea through the Croatian port of Omisalj, a deepwater harbour capable of supporting tankers larger than those at anchor in any Russian port.

"Washington has dropped its quiet opposition to Russian export routes, opening a number of doors to Russian companies," Stratfor observed.

"Since Russian oil can compete on the U.S. market only when delivered in supertanker-sized quantities, the Adria-Druzhba linkage raises the possibility of Russia directly supplying the United States," its commentary said.
RobotGuy
(05/10/2002; 07:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75328)
Middle East and Stock Market Cheerleaders.
I wonder wonder wonder, what we're going to blame today's wall street calamities on. There is no longer a standoff at the church of the nativity, no surprise bombings anywhere, no surprising negative economic tragedies,.... What are the cheerleaders going to blame today on, if there's no global catastrophe? Will we finally accept that we are indeed not in a recovering market? In the 'positive' news, we have had record sign-ups for internet stock trading companies for the month of April. Great, more suckers for the sucker rallies! Poor souls. Looks like we might see some yellow action today.

Surfs up!!

Cheers!
Rock
(05/10/2002; 07:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75329)
Robotguy
What Excuse for the Market's decline with no major news!You forgot one Robotguy, anthrax at the Fed, oh but those were false positives. After all we don't want the stock market to react too violently.

Cheers,
Rock
Rock
(05/10/2002; 07:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75330)
More Lies Revealed on CNBC, home of the Wall Street Cheerleaders

Clip: Special Report
Cramer's Troubles Could Get Worse
Victoria Murphy, 05.09.02, 2:33 PM ET

NEW YORK - Loudmouth CNBC commentator James Cramer has one more reason to yell: His nemesis, disgruntled former employee Nicholas Maier, is turning out to be a bigger thorn in Cramer's side than we predicted.

In April, Forbes.com broke the news that Maier, 33, who used to be a trader at Cramer's hedge fund, had been feeding information to the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission about Cramer & Co.'s allocations of initial public offerings from Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ). The SEC is conducting an investigation into the way investment banks apportioned IPO shares to clients during the height of the bull market.

Now it turns out that Maier may have also persuaded the office of the U.S. attorney for the eastern district of New York to look into Cramer's trading. Maier boasts that, in March, he spoke with the government and handed over the transcript of his taped interview with another former trader at the hedge fund. The interview was conducted as part of his research for his book, Trading With The Enemy, a tell-all about Maier's days at the raucous Cramer & Co. trading desk.

Cramer's lawyer, Eric Seiler, says that his client "is not under investigation by any U.S. attorney on any subject." Linda Lacewell, an assistant U.S. attorney, would not comment either way as to the possibility of an investigation into Cramer. But the trader in the transcript, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, has confirmed that he has since been interviewed by lawyers in the U.S. attorney's office.

The transcript includes some eyebrow-raising anecdotes relating to Cramer's cozy relationship with CNBC television personalities Maria Bartiromo, David Faber and Mark Haines. Since leaving his hedge fund, Cramer has joined the network as co-host of the nightly CNBC yakfest, America Now. He also frequently cavorts with Haines and Faber on its morning show, Squawk Box.

In some instances, according to the taped interview, Cramer would call the anchors with a possible news lead on a company after he had already established a position in that firm. Says the trader in the taped interview: "Before he'd call Maria maybe we'd buy five or ten thousand shares of something. You know, the name that he was about to mention. He would position the firm so that when it did come out, it would be the positive or negative short or long, depending on, you know, what information he gave."

The CNBC relationship allegedly worked both ways, with Cramer making trades based on information he gleaned from the on-air talent. One tale that came up during the trader's interview with assistant U.S. attorneys involved profit made on Salomon Inc. just before an announcement that the investment bank was being bought by Travelers Group in September 1997. The trader recalls Cramer saying, "That's one for Faber."

A CNBC spokeswoman denies any wrongdoing and says the network has not been contacted by any legal authorities and has no knowledge of any investigation into the network or its anchors' actions. "CNBC has the highest journalistic standards in the business. David Faber, Maria Bartiromo and Mark Haines have the utmost integrity and any allegations otherwise are completely without merit," says Amy Zelvin.

Cramer was too busy to be interviewed by Forbes.com today. In an earlier e-mail, he dismissed Maier's incessant attacks this way: "As someone who had a great record that was made from years of working harder than just about everyone, I find the whole thing insulting."

Maier's decision to go public with this latest tidbit may have much to do with his need to bolster his own credibility. His book came under fire when its publisher, HarperCollins, acknowledged that three pages contained false assertions that Cramer traded on inside information about hard drive maker Western Digital. "I regret the error, but it was simply that we were investigated regarding a different stock," says Maier. He also concedes that his book has sold poorly, a fate that is unlikely to befall the glib and popular magazine writer who used to be his boss. This week Cramer is launching a tour promoting Confessions of a Street Addict, his confessional about what went wrong at his once-highflying Web publisher TheStreet.com.


Cheers fellow goldbugs are long awaited days are here!

Rock
RobotGuy
(05/10/2002; 07:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75331)
Black Blade provided us with this link some time ago
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2 Looks like there's quite a bit of red out there, that's probably what we're going to use for today's excuse.


Cheers!
RobotGuy
(05/10/2002; 07:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75332)
Hey Rock! Thank-you for that clipping, it strengthens how I feel about cheerleaders.
Cheers!
R Powell
(05/10/2002; 07:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75333)
Options expiration day
Today is expiration day for the June gold and silver options. In the past there has been a recurring pattern of metals' prices gravitating towards prices reflecting multiples of $5.00 such as 280, 285, 290, 300 etc. This may have been co-incidence or it may have been very short term manipulation by the big money options' writers.
Perhaps, as many are now saying, if the gold market has been "freed" we'll no longer see this pattern. Will POG close today near $310 or even $305 to minimize call option payouts? How have the shorts been unwinding hedges? Have they simply bought back that which was sold or have they limited or offset loses with long calls? Have the miners and other big shorts (bullion bankers) been buying calls so that POG close on expiration day no longer concerns them?
The last few months have repeatedly amazed me with POG bouncing up quickly after every downturn. This has been a joy to behold. There appears to be tremendous strength just under whatever level POG closes at. New longs or fewer shorts? The open interest increase would indicate new long positions. If this trend continues the weak investment shorts will disappear leaving only those who actually possess physical as potential sellers. I don't think we have reached this point yet but it will happen if POG moves up substantially. I'm guessing that any initial explosive move upward will result more from a lack of sellers than from a herd of buyers. The herd will arrive later.
Isn't this fun! Any thoughts?
Rich
Jimbo
(05/10/2002; 08:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75334)
Flooding the market?
Matt Krantz in today's USA Today ("Gold rush could signal trouble") makes some statements that seem ill-conceived. One in particular bothers me:

"So should you buy gold? Not necessarily. For one thing, if the dollar stabilizes, the gold rally could peter out, Johnson says. Also, if gold continues to soar, companies can tap new mines and flood gold onto the market, which could bring prices back down."

First, I don't see the dollar stabilizing for quite some time. Second, it doesn't seem logical that gold companies would "flood gold onto the market," as he states. After all, wouldn't it make more sense for these companies to control the gold supply and keep prices high?

Does my logic make sense, or are Krantz' arguments sound?

Pizz
(05/10/2002; 08:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75335)
Mr. Gresham
Agree with bond speculators and their ability to work the system. Aritrage has been a money maker for shrewed sophisticated operators ever since high speed computers - about 15 years. Greenspan likes to think of it as market efficiencies, but I see it as no different than a bank employee who clips mathmatical rounding variances (one side only) and deposits them into his own account.

Nice thing about market efficiencies, they tend to redistribute capital quite effectively, but the trick is to find where the capital has been going. My gut tells me to imagine all fiat and digital currencies, paper derivitives, etc. as smoke in the air and that there is this big machine out there slowly sucking it in. The output of this machine is gold, and it's being deposited in quantity into a lot of very deep dark basements.

Time will tell, but time is getting short. Going to be one wild ride very shortly. We all have a ticket on the biggest rollercoaster ride anyone can possibly imagine. Too bad no one is telling the masses that they have to bring their own seatbelts and probably need some heavy metal to hold them down (smile).

Off to the saltmines.

Pizz

kludge
(05/10/2002; 08:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75336)
RE:"Gold rush could signal trouble"?
I think Mr. Krantz has that backwards.
Golden Bear
(05/10/2002; 08:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75337)
Jimbo (msg#: 75334) Flooding the market?
Don't let this kind of two-bit analysis distract you from the big picture. No matter whether the US dollar is going up or down, bullion is doing its own dance. Compare charts of spot vs dollar since september - no obvious inverse correlation.

The dollar will head lower when foreigners are pulling their money out of the US. But the money going into gold currently is not necessarily money that has been pulled from US.

Keep your eye on the golden ball, that's where the big money has been going, and by the looks of things, will continue for quite a while...

As for new mine production, is this clown suggesting that gold producers can bring new production online tomorrow, or maybe next week? I don't think so.

Cheers.
YGM
(05/10/2002; 08:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75338)
MIDAS Bulletin.....
Rats Jumping Sinking Ship......YGM.Big option writer UBS Warburg has been buying physical gold
in the cash market. JP Morgan Chase's derivative
department is also a buyer. That should be an explosive
mix!!!!
YGM
(05/10/2002; 08:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75339)
Futures & Currencies....
Could be a 3-4 $ up day for AU..All currencies up against Dollar....June /02 PMs all up except Plat......
YGM
(05/10/2002; 08:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75340)
Jay Taylor Report........"Excellent Take" "As Usual!"
http://www.goldcentral.com/qry/backgroundstories.taf?_function=detail&NEWS_uid1=5855EXCERPT:

That in a nutshell is why I believe Ian Gordon and Ron Gilchrist are exactly right in calling for a major depression and a gut wrenching deflation in America, the likes of which we have not seen since the 1930's. And I think signs are indicating David Tice was right to suspect the first real signs of big trouble for the U.S. economy will become visible when the dollar begins to tank. The spoiled rotten 60's generation (my generation), which took over the White House with Bill Clinton in the early 1990's, continues to live their adult lives as they lived youthful years. Live for today and to hell with the future. Don't worry about personal responsibility. Let the government take care of you and your family and its problems. Most folks never stop to think that attitude might result in declining levels of freedom.

But now the time has come when I'm afraid we are about to pay for the excesses of our past. As foreigners understand they have been deceived by market interventions and corporate lies and distortions, the reaction is not likely to be kind to America. We may now be witnessing the first glimmer of a transformation out of the dollar and into other currencies and gold.

Siochain
(05/10/2002; 09:05:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75341)
Big Gold Buying
Midas/Cafe Gold Bulletin

"Big option writer UBS Warburg has been buying physical gold
in the cash market. JP Morgan Chase's derivative
department is also a buyer. That should be an explosive
mix!!!!"
JCTex
(05/10/2002; 09:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75342)
YGM (05/09/02; 23:05:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 75316)
"...keeps the Alien Bankers from reading my mind..." - been lalughing at that one all morning.

Isn't it a shame that we have to go to all sorts of places looking for news that hasn't been doctored? When the crash comes, the real story will be how the press lied to the public all these years.
Siochain
(05/10/2002; 09:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75343)
YGM
Sorry for the duplicate...you're are fast on the draw...so let's hope the second post doubles the buying...Cheers!
Nomad
(05/10/2002; 10:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75344)
Deflation City ...
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-05-10-inflation.htm
Snippit :

WASHINGTON � U.S. inflation has limboed to such a low level that a handful of economists think it may be getting too low. Some even say the Federal Reserve may keep rates where they are for a while to foster price pressures � unheard of just a few years ago.

"For the first time in my lifetime I can say that the Fed does not want the inflation rate to go any lower," former Fed governor Lyle Gramley, 75, says.







Pizz
(05/10/2002; 10:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75345)
R Powell/Mr. Gresham/All
Agree with your thoughts regarding multiples of $5. Strike prices are where the wars are fought.

Now, as far as the big boys playing big games? Mr. Gresham has me thinking on bonds, balance sheets, and capital. I commented earlier this morning on where the balance sheet capital, or capital in general may be drained off by manipulation. This can be gold, fiat, etc.

Rich, you're watching the paper PM markets for signs on expiration today, but I'm going to comment on the paper SM's and futures, because I'm watching them for signs. Next week is SM options expiration and I'm watching JPM thrashing around.

Now, we have an idea that JPM may be getting out of the derivitives business, at least to a certain extent. We also have all kinds of rumors about them. If JPM needs a hit to keep earnings up, and I have to think their bond portfolio may be suffering a bit right along with their gold position. Now, what piggy bank will they rob? Lets make a case for the SM funds - the sheeple's invested money.

According to a floor trader interviewed on WebFn, JPM was a HUGE buyer of S&P futures on the SM spike up earlier this week. He also speculated that they might also be heavy buyers of stocks themselves. This may be partially right, but I think they went heavy short on the stocks at or near the top of the rally, but still long the futures. Why? We had no follow thru to the rally and that's indicitive of distribution and big money shorting at the top.

Now, if JPM went huge long on the futures, someone sold. Here's were the funds step in and write calls or sell futures (their portfolio covers them) for short term income.
If this is the case, the unwinding of the futures positions that take place during option expiration week will have a major downward bias. Right now JPM and or others COULD be short stocks and long the futures. When they roll out of the futures next week, their short position will become very profitable, and is also how capital is drained out of our SM into the major banks. You gotta be a big, big player to make this work. (Is it a wonder why Greenspan likes the derivitives markets?)

Now, where will the capital go? I have a hunch some of it will be used to cover the problems in someone's gold derivitive department. Up, up and away.

Rich, does this kind of senario fit the gold market in reverse? My feelings say yes.

Pizz

RobotGuy
(05/10/2002; 10:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75346)
Sir Gandalf
Thou shouldst be calling our friend spike!

Cheers!
sector
(05/10/2002; 11:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75347)
$311.75...Mighty Close to closing time to be going up that high.
The kind of action one would expect if the cabal were "capitulating" on the $310 strikeeom
YGM
(05/10/2002; 12:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75348)
Excerpt from Jay Taylors Report...James Turks..."Fear Index"
This is one winter I'd 'Welcome'.........ygm
If, as the Kondratieff winter unfolds, we suffered just a moderate amount of anxiety over the dollar as happened during the last Kondratieff summer, we might reasonably expect a nine fold rise above the current price of gold to $2,800/oz. If on the other hand, during the impending Kondratieff winter, the ratio moved up toward 30 times as it did in last Kondratieff winter, simple arithmetic takes us to a price of $9,360/oz.


*NO DROOLING ON THE KEYBOARD PEOPLE!!.............
YGM
(05/10/2002; 12:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75349)
Japan To Send Gold Soaring....Stewart Bailey & Peter Gonnella Apr 17/02
http://www.goldcentral.com/qry/backgroundstories.taf?_function=detail&NEWS_uid1=5850I missed this report but if it's a repost for some it's a reinforcement for others.....Sorry if it's old news!....
Still good reading none the less....Makes the 'Sting' seem ever more real when we focus on the Dollar and Japan! IMO..
The CoinGuy
(05/10/2002; 12:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75350)
Those Gold Locks of hair must be seeping into his brain
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6DF826ED-429D-4732-AA49-128747DD5497}I've noticed Thom has been increasingly bearish over the last few months, but it's starting to look like he's been reading the Trail...

Good Weekend to all,

The (Physical) CoinGuy
Mr Gresham
(05/10/2002; 12:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75351)
Calandra
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B6DF826ED%2D429D%2D4732%2DAA49%2D128747DD5497%7DHe's bubbling over today... (on the run)
YGM
(05/10/2002; 12:40:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75352)
Mr. Gresham.....You're Here...
I've Been Saving these for you.....Re: your feelings on "Far Fetched Plans" and peoples Vanity keeping them from questioning "The Unthinkable"...........

***Three Quotes I keep on my desk top for a constant reminder of keeping an open & questioning mind......
I thought you might like these also! The last one is my favorite. Have a good wkend all....YGM.


Quotes...

If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. -- Samuel Adams, speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776

The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- State Tamperings -- Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)

There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)







Waverider
(05/10/2002; 13:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75353)
Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Ratings Cut by S&P
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNwbbBNBRGV1dHNjSnippit:
"Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group had their credit ratings cut by Standard & Poor's on concern a drop in investment banking revenue and increased competition have hurt two of Europe's biggest banks.

Deutsche Bank, Europe's largest bank, was lowered to ``AA-,'' S&P's fourth-highest rating, from ``AA,'' the first reduction in three years. Credit Suisse, the parent of investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston, had its rating cut to ``A+'' from ``AA-,'' S&P said.

Global banks' ratings are under pressure as revenue dries up for underwriting stocks and bonds and advising on mergers, and loan losses mount. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co., both put on ``negative watch'' by S&P, are among banks whose ratings may be cut.

``We wonder if this is just the tip of the iceberg,'' said Richard Thomas, a credit analyst at ABN Amro in London."
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 14:15:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75354)
World Gold Council chief resigns
http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/10/news/world_gold.reut/index.htm
The organization of gold mining companies also said it is looking to restructure and remodel.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The World Gold Council said Friday its chief executive, Haruko Fukuda, will leave her post on June 30, and the WGC will look to restructure and remodel itself.



Black Blade: "To pursue other interest"? Although as far as I can tell, she seems to have done a fairly good job.

YGM
(05/10/2002; 14:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75355)
Proud to be Canadian eh!.......
Sometimes I'd like to Burn My Passport.......*From American Freedom News*

JUST WHAT WE NEED!

Canada's socialist prime minister offers
sanctuary to 13 militant Palestinians hiding
in Church of the Nativity..........

Jean Chr�tien yesterday tentatively offered sanctuary in Canada to 13 Palestinian militants who have been under siege in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity since April 2.
..........................................................

*Sell the rest of our Gold Cretien! Focus on what you do best like bankrupting the Nation. We already know you're the worst embarrassment we've ever had for a leader!!!!!!!

By the Lord Harry, I was a mellow fellow til I read this today.....Now 10 Cerveca and two pitchers of Margueritas
won't quell this fit of rage......Send our Troops over there (Afganistan) & they have to buy their own boots and equipment, we hear they're also buying food to eat & they made the trip in a Zodiac (our Navy)....I think I'll mail Cretien my passport, I really do......Arrrrgh!....YGM

darkhorse
(05/10/2002; 14:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75356)
@YGM
This must be the new "official" way of getting terrorists into the US. They've tried (and sometimes succeeded) doing it covertly before, now we've got transparency! I empathize with ya, buddy!
darkhorse
(05/10/2002; 14:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75357)
oops...
make that last post read "..."official" way of terrorists getting into the US." Kinda transposed my words...my lysdexia must be catching up with me again.
Pizz
(05/10/2002; 14:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75358)
Sanctuary
Great, and with a Swiss cheese border. . . . .

Have a good week end all.

Pizz
White Rose
(05/10/2002; 14:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75359)
Payback for Canada
We dropped some bombs and killed 4 Canadian soldiers in Afghanastan a few weeks ago. We ignored the fact that we were told they were operating in that area. We compounded our error by acting like it was a nothing.

Is this payback? Of course offering sanctuary may be very different than actually having to go through with it. It all may be part of some international grandstanding.
CoBra(too)
(05/10/2002; 14:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75360)
Rating Cuts - On heavy financial Enterprises ! -
Hello - Sir Waverider - Seen your comments on CS and DB's credit rating cuts by S&P - while JPM, ML are on negative ratings watch. ... Reminds me of the guy, who sees the splinter in the other guys eye, while straining to see beyond the log in his own eye!

... As Cisco, the Kid told the story the other day - don't ever give up on real tech growth - and as long as you can beat the expectation of Wall Street - you'll get away with no growth at all - what an idiotic game to play ... on to the final dooms day and just consider Cisco is trading at 20% of it's high ... meaning you've lost 80% - if you've been lucky enough only to buy it at the highs and not at the dips also! Reciprocately - you would just about need an 800% capital appreciation to ... yeah, to just make it back in "nominal" terms - ... and that's really extremely ... UN-likely - or is it?

Meanwhile, you could have resorted to the barbarous relic, which has so far appreciated a bit - though only enough to make you wonder, why you ever ponder'd fiat as a medium to calculate your long term goals - such as saving for education, housing and finally retirement - as you can clearly see now - to the end - or forever ... all of it has gone the way of decay ...

... Haven't seen any agency re-rating the weight, nor the credit of an oz of gold lately - have you? ... cb2



YGM
(05/10/2002; 14:51:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75361)
White Rose
If Only It Were That Simple....We just get one bought, paid for and moronic leader after another.....At least Doris DAY is not the Opposition Leader anymore.....Ah well I'm over my rant and it's safe to walk around me here again :>) Think I'll go out and talk to the Horses and when I get to the rear end of one I'll lift the tail and tell Cretien what I think......
TownCrier
(05/10/2002; 15:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75362)
Last chance to order these Graded MS61 $10 Liberties online
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlSoon to be replaced by the Brazilian 20,000 Reis gold coins from the late 1800's (each with a whopping 0.5286 ounces of gold). They are nice! If these aren't the most beautiful manhole covers you've ever seen, I'll eat my keyboard.

There aren't many, so call Centennial now if you feel like jumping the gate.

R.
TownCrier
(05/10/2002; 16:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75363)
If you only read one article today...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6DF826ED-429D-4732-AA49-128747DD5497}Thanks to Mr Gresham and The CoinGuy for posting this link earlier today. Here are some notable excerpts:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -
...A month from now, a year from now, five years from now - you choose the timing, because I won't - the price of an ounce of gold will be three to six times what it is now.

...By then, the euro will be worth a ton more than 91 cents. So will the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. By then, overseas investors long will have stopped hoarding U.S. securities...

...There are some who believe that when the red ink in the U.S. current account surpasses 5 percent of gross domestic product, all heck will break loose in financial markets. Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley is on record saying a "hard landing" for the dollar, and with it the boatloads of U.S.-linked securities in foreign portfolios, may be inevitable. "A crisis of confidence is not inconceivable," Roach writes.

...I submit that with that swollen account deficit and the dollar's decline will come (has come and is coming) an explosive move up in the price of gold. The $310 metal, up almost 20 percent this year, one day will sell for a price that reflects a cascading American balance sheet.

...Ian McAvity ... says the gold-price trigger may be days or weeks away.
------(click link for full article)------

Did you ever think you'd see such pro-gold material in the mainstream media? Hinting at gold's potiential, there are millions of investors out there who have yet to even consider adding gold to their portfolio holdings. When the herd turns and begins to run this way, you won't want to be caught sleeping in the path of their thundering hooves. Make your move (to buy) now and head for the high ground.

R.
R Powell
(05/10/2002; 16:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75364)
Strong finish for the week
Stocks down
Dollar losing strength
POG up
POS up
Gold mining stock indexes up (XAU = 79.90)
Peoples' television stock picking channel still endlessly wondering about analysts' integrity (duh)
Daughter's guinea pig gave birth to six baby pigs!!
Papa guinea pig recovering from yesterday's visit to the animal hospital. Yes, there will be no more baby pigs. Poor papa.
Gold and silver look strong. Silver may be looking at the approximate 475 level again soon. The technical analysts often mention the fourth attempt at breaking through as the charm. Hope so.
Happy weekend to all !!!
Rich
Boilermaker
(05/10/2002; 16:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75365)
Jimbo, Flooding the Market
Unlike oil, there is little spare shut-in gold production capacity available. Some mines have closed and some of these can be reactivated but only at much higher prices. Ofsetting any mine reopenings will be the negative effects of years of high grading that have depleted the higher ore grades in many mines. Low prices have forced miners to exploit their lowest cost reserves and at the same time put off exploration for new reserves and maintenence of existing mines. I expect that it will take a price north of $500/oz and an investment climate free of government interference in the markets before large scale investment takes place. Once that hurdle is passed, wait another 5 to 7 years before you see the finished product. Miner profits will also lag the POG increase because they will be catching up with long neglected exploration and mine maintenence.

Gold mining has a tremendous inertia that works in both directions.

Have a good weekend to all of my dear gold bugs.

Boilermaker
jlfletc
(05/10/2002; 16:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75366)
GR2?
Where can thoust be, sir knight?
Arcticfox
(05/10/2002; 17:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75367)
(No Subject)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2002-05-10-gold.htmSnip..
But unless you're invested in gold, this rally may actually be a reason for concern. It could be a clue the stock market is in more trouble than many realize, say analysts who study the metal.

shelllus
(05/10/2002; 19:05:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75368)
1-henry ford 2-dustbowl
'It is well enough that people of the nation
do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there
would be a revolution before tomorrow
morning."----HENRY FORD

I WAS ALWAYS STRUCK BY THE TIMING OF THE 30'S DUST BOWL AND THE MARKET CRASH/DEPRESSION----WE ARE GETTING A REPEAT OF THE DUST BOWL NOW AND LOOK WHATS LIKELY IN THE MARKET!
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 19:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75369)
OPEC Likely to Extend Oil Cuts, Supporting Prices
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APNup_xRST1BFQyBM
Snippit:

Saudi Arabia and its colleagues at the meeting supply almost a third of the oil the world consumes. While no decision on production will come until OPEC meets in June, the ministers plan to discuss the future of their biggest revenue-producing industry at a time when economic growth is lower than normal.

``Supply and demand are essentially balanced, giving OPEC no reason to adjust output,'' said Brad Bourland, senior economist at the Riyadh-based Saudi American Bank. ``Prices could actually slide further in the next few months if tensions in the Middle East ease.''

Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries need oil above $20 to ensure they have enough cash to avoid going into debt. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer, faces an unemployment rate near 15 percent and near zero economic growth.

Other nations at the meeting of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries in Cairo include OPEC members Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and non-OPEC states Bahrain, Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The group gathers every few years to discuss topics ranging from trends in world oil markets to financing the next generation of oil fields.

In the first quarter, oil supply and demand was equal at 76.3 million barrels a day, and oil use this year will increase by 440,000 barrels a day, the International Energy Agency estimates. Arab producers consider a ``normal'' level to be four times that amount.

Some analysts say keeping supplies in check may send prices to $30 a barrel and hurt the economic turnaround by making it more expensive to buy products such as gasoline, jet fuel and heating oil. Oil prices ``will go just up further, there's no doubt about that,'' said Leo Drollas, deputy director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a London think tank founded former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani. ``That will hold back economic growth.''


Black Blade: Looks like the Global Recession has taken a toll by lowered increases in demand. However, oil producers are determined to keep prices profitable and that means an economic recovery in the west is highly unlikely anytime soon.

sector
(05/10/2002; 20:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75370)
Cabal Not Dead
...Like an Aircraft Running Low on Fuel ...They Can Still AttackSECTREAS O'Neill launches an Africa "I feel your pain" tour with entertainer Bono.

Can you believe it? Will Mr. O�Neill turn out to play a mean set of drums?�or perhaps bass guitar?

They will strangely bypass South Africa...maybe they're afraid of getting AIDS.

This oddity has me thinking that one reason for the money boss to be out-of-town is to keep from answering tough questions that result from a pending controversial decision's.
�Such as a decision to sell IMF gold�.Proceeds to go of course to help the poor�Not to mention the further destruction of South Africa's economy.

The last time this idea bobbed up from the vast Clinton brain trust, it quickly sank because the Congressional Black Caucus killed it...Bad for Sub-Saharan economies. The problem today is that the CBC has little clout...even IF they fully grasped that their "Friends" in the Democratic Party actually stabbed them in their financial backs throughout GoldGate.

To attempt such a move today, with three years of factual evidence posted at GATA.org and goldensextant.com regarding the Fed's JPM and their nefarious acolytes, would only serve to draw even more attention to the scam of GoldGate. It would be akin to pulling harder on a Chinese finger puzzle.

Nevertheless, Greenspan may be up to the challenge and try to pull his fingers out of their joints.

Should such a move be launched it will no-doubt fail... but the more important point is that an exquisite buying opportunity would present itself.

So...let's see if the bureaucrats at the Fed can live up to their lofty salaries and chamfered limousines. Let's watch them take their best shot...and keep our powder DRY.
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 20:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75371)
Gold rush could signal trouble
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2002-05-10-gold.htm
Snippit:

Investors fed up with the gloomy stock market may be missing a bull market that's glittering right in front of their faces: gold. Even while blue chips and tech stocks are in the dumps, the price of gold is on a tear. Stocks of companies that mine gold, which are closely tied to the price of gold, even hit two-year highs this week.

But unless you're invested in gold, this rally may actually be a reason for concern. It could be a clue the stock market is in more trouble than many realize, say analysts who study the metal. "The gold market senses a continuation of the bear market in stocks and rising inflation," says John Hathaway, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management. "Nothing else is working." When investors start buying gold, they're bracing for trouble. They're essentially turning away from the stock market and saying they'd rather protect the assets they have than risk losing more.

Unfortunately for non-gold investors, everything that's propelling gold is likely to be bad for non-gold stocks, says Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals fund. Rising oil prices, fears of inflation and concerns about Middle East unrest all go into a stew of things that boost gold, he says. Most important, the weakening U.S. dollar is causing nervous investors to buy gold for safety.

Anxiety about the U.S. economy and stock market is rising. Investors buying gold are betting problems such as rising oil prices and terrorism are being underestimated, Johnson says. Gold's performance is a warning that the market is not safe yet, says Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research. "A prudent investor would look for ways to survive if the world remains an unfriendly place," he says.


Black Blade: A fairly good article until the end where the author shows his ignorance of the Gold industry. Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals fund suggests that Gold can be "magically" produced by "tapping" new mines. Obviously he never worked in the mining business and why he manages a PM fund if he doesn't even grasp the most basic concepts is beyond me. It takes a minimum of 5 years to bring on new mine production and that's after exploration proves out the deposit. After several years in the business I know. I swear most people on Wall Street are complete idiots.

slingshot
(05/10/2002; 20:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75372)
The World Today
Moving at the Speed of LightThere are some of us who remember when things moved at a slower pace. With each new discovery and inovation we think how much time we save only to be caught in a trap as we compress more activity in the same amount of time.
So what has this to do with Gold? Maybe nothing. I just have the impression that one reason why the gereral public has very little interest in gold is that they are busy making ends meet in their daily lives. Actually, Goldbugs are caught in some type of time displacement with the public instead of moving fast, are in slow motion. Over time they speed up and eventually synchronize with us. Until they take a good look at what is happening,to employment,
real estate market, savings, credit debt, savings etc, they will continue to do the things they do and live within their comfort zone.
They don't realize they are running out of time. What a shame.
Slingshot
Waverider
(05/10/2002; 21:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75373)
Black Blade
http://www.gulfnews.comYou may find this article interesting from the Gulf News dated Tuesday May 7, 2002 (pdf), titled "Arab States Urged to Boost Internal Trade" by Nadim Kawach. It's about increasing inter-Arab trade of oil and gas, but what caught my eye was this..."The seventh energy conference comes at a time of significant economic and political developments...the tendancy to form regional economic blocks is gaining pace as the new world order emerges in finance and energy." Hmmm...I think the Arabs have a lot more up their sleeve than they're letting on. Cheers,

Waverider
TownCrier
(05/10/2002; 21:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75374)
Tighten your belts, gents!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlDrop one of these hefty (0.5286 troy ounce) Brazilian coins in your pocket and things could get breezy if you don't cinch up first!

(You may have to click your browser's REFRESH button if you still see the Liberty offer at this link.)

R.
Black Blade
(05/10/2002; 21:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75375)
Walloped dollar to accelerate gold
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6DF826ED-429D-4732-AA49-128747DD5497}
Toronto veteran explains the de-hedging scenario

Snippit:

This column isn't about Aldridge, the American short-story writer who quit school at age 13 to write for 19th century magazines. I just put it there so you can turn away from this column now if you don't want to hear