USAGOLD Discussion

Belgian

(05/01/2002; 12:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74685)

Gold Wars....

Sir Lips Ferdinand signaled record interest in his book : Number 44 out of 3 million at amazon.com ! Congrats to you Sir.

In the mean time, the UN-free press (media) and analysts (gold-authorities) continue quessing the future price (not Value) of Un-free Gold, during its raging war !?
The present POG compensation for dollar decline is mediaticaly explained by the goldminer's declining hedging !
No, no POG is not rising because the dollar has changed trend...nonooooo ! And goldbugs must already be *pre-conditoned* with a POG stabilizing at the preset number of 325$. This corresponds with an oxygenated dollar level that "they" want to reach with "the" management.

And surprise'surprise...325$ is a very visible and important TA-TI point ! Oh boy what a lot of co-incidences !

Conclusion : Gold is on its way to heaven. No matter what levels or targets are fixed on the program of any anti-gold warrior . No matter how much different coctails of derivatives there are out there. No matter if or not these derivatives can be unwinded/untangled orderly or not. One day any kind of gold- management (enforced or not) will have to abondened when the ship (dollar-debt) capsizes and makes plent of water.

Those who turn their backs to the different aspects of this growing Big Brother world and are strong enough to remain FREE individuals...will keep on accumulating GOLD !
Sir Gresham, I strongly suspect you are also one of these Freedom lovers and hesitate / doubt as to find the right moment for having excess paper exchanged for the precious.
I've done so almost completely for myself. The only paper left is for settlement of daily expenses and enjoyment of some materialistic aspects of life.

On BBC hardtalk (tele) today, the Italian representative of the triumvirate (Belgium/France/Italy) preparing an Euroland constitution...was enlightening. Giscard d'Estaing (France) is an aristocrat and a passionate french world citizen. Euroland is fully engaged in the competitive run for ...alternative supremacy and UK fully EMU integrated is
part of a big jump forward. Another 10 countries out of 25 must join EMU as soon as possible (2003/2004) before the present 12 nucleus has run too far away. Always take into consideration that the fundamental of this Euroland expansion is the euro ! And euro is antipode of the dollar, in itself the worst enemy of GOLD ! The political unity of Euroland is NOT an absolute priority. We will agree to agree on a minimum minimorum. The euro-stability is the one and only basis (first half decade) for ensuring progress and prevent failure. Any Euroland failure would be a disaster. This places the US for a very difficult dilemma analog to what happened in 1940/45 .

This very, very fundamental aspect has been communicated by us through A/FOA in exclusivity and for free. It is the one and only explanation *why* Gold is behaving and has behaved as such. UNFREE GOLD serving two masters (dollar/euro) with a different timetable / agenda and manoevered into a condition where both have no point of return.

Under these conditions, GOLD prefers to remain "low profile" for as long as possible. Never tell the full truth and the real reasons behind any great story. Gold was/is and will remain *exclusive* ! It is the currencies that will be affected and be spotlighted for everyone to see.
I'll stubbornly repeat that there is not enough Gold for balanced and proportionate distribution. It would become so enormously Valued (in currency prices) that new imbalances would arise. That's why it will be managed as a reserve with a certain limit in its importance. So far a reasonable solution to avoid total and destructive collapse. Once Gold will be Valued into the many thousands...it will become automatically and unfortunately out of reach for a large majority of people. New candidate owners that is.

Why talk today, about Gold Valued into the thousands when the present rise from 253$ to 312$ is only a ridicule 20% ?
Because I do personally believe that we will never see 250$ never again as I (myself) will never be 20 years young and Gold is aging / riping for its permanent rise to heaven.
And yes indeed, I'm told never to say never. Than let me put it this way : If Gold crashes under 250$/200$...Euroland will have failed ! But it can't and will not fail ! Brrrrr.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/01/2002; 12:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74686)

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miner49er

(05/01/2002; 13:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74687)

Econoclast @74671 - the Big One...

My grip is surely slipping, I think I've lost my hold... yes I think I've lost my hold,
I cannot get insurance anymore... they don't take credit on the gold...

Peter Gabriel - Blood of Eden (I know he wasn't thinking about this kind of stuff, but weirdly enough, it sure fits...)

Your mention of derivatives going kabloom... Was just thinking about that myself, earlier. The expected prescription is, of course, to raise rates. Yet as you correctly point out, the derivative books are all crying for mercy, "just a little bit lower, just a little bit longer..." And as long as the spin can convince enough people that inflation is being contained, and that things are gonna turn around any day now, the Fed can play this put-it-off-'til-tomorrow game.

Yet, not only of course, are there derivatives issues, but as we've discussed here ad nauseum, there is the issue of looming and very bad debt, en masse, whose repercussions throughout the system leave the U.S. most likely to just make the books balance, and print whatever is necessary to do that. This, opposed to the classical prescription of permitting contractionary forces to do their cleanup work (of which higher rates are typically a major component).

Those who frequent here have a pretty good handle of what the arguments are surrounding why the classical methods won't work this time, whether they agree or not. But the general public, and the officials they elect, essentially have only this level of understanding, and usually an inaccurate and superficial appreciation of the dynamics at play, to begin with.

As such, once inflation begins to be truly felt, and persistent, the pressure will be on for the Fed to explain why it is not raising rates. It finds itself in the economist's endless dilemma of trying to "'splain it." Never mind any potential illicit behavior, the task of making people, on a large scale, understand the sordid maze of dynamics involved in few words, is next to impossible.

The dilemma is this: With a "hard" science, like physics, or neurology, people are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the experts, because they accept their own ignorance in the field, appreciating the complexity of the discipline. With the "soft" science of economics (like religion, philosophy and sports), everybody thinks they know it all, just because they read a "how the economy works" sidebar in USA Today once.

As long as confidence in the priests of this bestial religion is sustained, Fed heads, and other members of the mumbling class, can say pretty much whatever, and people just nod their tacit approval, letting others do the job of interpreting the entrails.

When things go south, people want clear, concise, sound-bite answers. And they want them now. This requires a communication's savvy that scarcely anyone (self-included) has harnessed. Unless they can rouse the public to their side with authoritative one-liners like, "Render unto Caesar...," (probably bad example...), or the like, they will lose them. And since they really cannot explain themselves in 6 words, they will have to fend off tremendous pressure to cater to the demands of the public, and Congress. Opposition economists will all have their Warholian quarter hour. They will appear sober, and even-handed -- all convincingly touting the wrong measures. People will listen, and soon will be discussing financial / economic esoterica with grand sophomoric confidence, using buzz-words that were entirely absent from their vocabulary two weeks prior. Then other crisis will break out, and Congress will be pressured to "do something." (Anything.) And they will.

It may be here at this juncture, that the global linkage of derivatives will bring together Japan, the Argentinas of the world, the Mid-East, and all the other cracks and fissures into one critical fault line. Our currency has become effectively good at little more than providing instantaneous depth and liquidity for risk mitigation tools and speculation. For this reason, the Federal Reserve may well be entirely incapable of raising rates ever again. (I tend to lean in this direction, myself.) The breaking point might be that day when: 1) either the Fed perhaps should blink and raises rates -- to its peril; or 2) the day the dollar-holding public (foreign and domestic) loses confidence in why the Fed does not. This will be because the public's understanding demands for rates to rise under these conditions, and they will no longer buy the reasons the Fed is giving for not raising them. Could this cause the great flood-gate busting exodus? It is perhaps already happening, somewhat quietly and orderly, as we speak.

The third, and least probable scenario, would be for all the world's dollar holders to simply acquiesce in the status quo, and just let the Fed keep printing dollars into oblivion. Here, theoretically, dollar recycling into financial-instrument blackholes would allow the perpetuation of the system, as dollars are kept out of pricing goods and services. This is what the Fed is likely going to do (to prevent derivative's whoopsies, and keep the dreaded deflation at bay), but the dollar holders will surely begin dumping them by the shovel-full at some point, and this will bid up the real world costs of things we make and do. This point will most probably be the day that the stuff we really, really need (oil) starts to become prohibitively expensive.

That day indeed may not be brought on by Mid-East producers suddenly demanding higher prices out of the blue, and without clear and compelling cause to the public. It may well follow the very template I've outlined above. Just look at the dilemma of oil companies right now, as they are on the grill. None of them are even trying to explain the currency issues, and macro-economic reasons behind oil prices rising. All the conversation is orbiting a very small micro-economic universe. This is all the public is focusing on (just listen to the talk shows). The micro issues themselves are difficult enough for people to get their arms around, since most don't spend any time delving into them normally (why should they?). Yet, suddenly water-cooler expertise now includes gasoline refining processes, and oil grade differentiation among its repertory. Brought to critical mass, this semi-informed pressure will inevitably force itself in the wrong direction, and to the wrong conclusions. The current mood is for the Government to fix everything. Perhaps under the banner of the "national security," things like the current Big Oil inquisition will find the industry again reeling under the burden of ever more heavy-handed, clumsy Big Government regulation. Price caps, the ever-popular "windfall profits" extortions, and legions of newly-hired government "regulators" poking into every nook and sphincter they can find. All this to the delight of the public, and oil-hating politicians... This of course is just shooting ourselves in both feet. The subsequent additional trauma to our economy could bring about such justifiable and obvious reasons for discrediting our dollar, that we may no longer be capable of crying foul about oil producing nations wanting more dollars for their product.

This is the way the world ends, not with a bang, but a FOX News opinion poll...

Many people who follow this stuff are all looking for what the last straw will be. Perhaps this be it? And driven not by back-room machinations, or even the indiscreet emissions of someone's hedge book, but by the brazen demands of the general public at large, unwittingly asking for its legs to be lopped off at the knees. How sad, yet (at least in my mind) how very, very plausible...

All the best, (what is it now? 87 days and counting to privately obtain the precious yellow...?)
miner

btw... Mr. Gresham @ 74670 - You, good Sir, are truly an asset and a blessing to this forum... Thank you for your feedback and comments to so many different posters. It is something we all deal with, wondering whether anybody "really reads this stuff..." What takes 2 minutes to glance through may have taken someone 5 hours of precious time from "real life" to compose... Notwithstanding the cathartic benefits of having somewhere to communicate, what no one around us in real life cares about, it is so very beneficial to have feedback. Hopefully it is positive, but even sincere requests for clarification, or cool-headed, friendly argument are sought by most. So again, thank you...

CoBra(too)

(05/01/2002; 13:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74688)

After Cold Wars - It's Gold Wars

Or is it just that we'll all go to Mars or the Stars as old Frankie Boy sung of Grace Kelly - the latter, though still late Duchess of Grimaldi of Monaco.

- Anyway- all seems possible as at the blink of (who's, BTW) eye, the SM's turn around and list their first meaningful adavance in a while. After all its the first of May - a typical socialistic/communistic labor day - and that's where probably all the jobs are to be found - anyway ... far away from the western ex- capitalistic, free-market- trade and globalistic post industrial societies - who in hell would need them please? ... as we thrive on services of the financial gender, mostly - remember GE and its costly de-(activating)productivity ...

Ge...eh, with glee I'm watching the footsteps of GI-ants waging a global s'WAT to the detriment of liberty, truth and decency ... So WAT - a global threat to whom, by whom and for/or against whom? ... Do you know? No, and so I can only speculate against all and in particular "humanity" - and I hope to be wrong! too ... cb2

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 14:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74689)

Re: Pizz and sourdough � ABX Earnings?

It is very difficult to find "net earnings" in Barrick's financial statements. I have tried in the past by digging into their 10-Q's. They tend to report "operating earnings" which is essentially the same as Pro Forma earnings. These are earnings "before all the bad stuff" � like maintenance costs, certain capital costs, etc. That is why it is so difficult to get a handle on the true earnings. Even with this favorable treatment on the earnings statement, they were unable to meet lowered earnings estimates although the POG has been rising. I noticed that Placer Dome (and others) has done the same kind of phoney accounting in the past but I am not aware of how they are reporting lately. Simply put � this kind of accounting is deceptive when investors really want to see the actual bottom line.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(05/01/2002; 14:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 74690)

YES, CB2 -- It's NOW Gold Wars !!!

CoBra(too) (05/01/02; 13:58:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74688)
After Cold Wars - It's Gold Wars
----
Sorry, no time to chat, just like Mr. G., --- only had time to screen the Forum -- The Paper Gold guys had control of the COMEX after "Noon NY" today --- BUT things are HEATING UP and SPIKE is getting rested for the BIG JUMP !!
Like Aragorn III spoke about, "THUNDER IN THE NIGHT" !!!
Is everyone ready ?
Off to see what the Nazguls are about (Swing Shift).
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 14:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74691)

Gold bulls see further big gains

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BD6BC620A%2DCA6A%2D4175%2DBC81%2D23AE056494B1%7D
Questions arise about hedging at Barrick Gold

Snippit:

Barrick failed to meet Wall Street earnings expectations Wednesday. In their conference call, Barrick executives fielded numerous analysts' questions about the company's hedged sales of gold, a strategy seen by some as risky if bullion prices rise sharply. Those questions, from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others, were met by Barrick executives who assured investors they were monitoring the situation.

Barrick said that for the remainder of this year it will sell half its gold production in the so-called "spot-deferred market" and half in the spot market. The company said its delivery of the metal for hedged sales fell a net 200,000 ounces. Investors increasingly are demanding that gold companies sell their ounces in the spot market, thus reducing any global selling pressure of the metal and eliminating complex accounting practices linked to hedged sales.

Barrick and others use "written calls," options contracts, and other derivative devices to hedge against possible falls in gold's price. Douglas Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto says Barrick's confusing account statements may make investors nervous. "The real story here is how they are turning their written calls into Variable Price Contracts, which no one really understands," Pollitt said after the Barrick conference call. "Why not seek absolute transparency?"

Black Blade: It appears that the Barrick conference call did not go over very well. The practice of shorting Gold by a Gold miner has raised a lot of concern lately in the investment community and for good reason. Mega-Hedger AngloGold has been unwinding their hedge book since they lost out on the Newmont-Franco bidding war for Aussie miner Normandy. The day of the hedger is over. Forward sales make no sense in a rising Gold price environment.

Aristotle

(05/01/2002; 14:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74692)

A tale of two investment mindsets

If you were a wealthy man and wanted a secure position in, say, a strongbox containing 100 kilograms of Gold Sovereigns, then to accomplish that goal you'd have to pay the market price. It's a simple and obvious concept, and today it would cost you around One Million Dollars. You'd then have clear ownership of a very impressive box of wealth, yours through thick and thin to use as you'd please.

In your mind's eye you envisioned an appropriate quantity of Gold for your personal circumstances of wealth, and so you bought it (that being the standard way of getting things, you know.)

Then one day your close friend says to you, "Hey, I see the Gold market is really heating up these days. You were sure smart to buy Gold like you did back there. Ya know, I've been thinking a lot, too, lately... about putting $1 million into Gold. When do you think I should do it?"

"Well," you reply, "if your goal is to put One Million Dollars into Gold, then the timing really doesn't matter at all. What I mean is, assuming you've got the money, you can do it at any time, so you might as well do it whenever it is most convenient for you."

He looks at you inquisitively, having expected somewhat more sophisticated investment advice about market movements and timing. You take note of his dull expression, so you decide to elaborate.

You continue, "Look, putting One Million Dollars into Gold is very easy. But on that matter, really, who am I to talk -- I've never done it." You smile.

"But I've seen your Gold!" he protests. "I thought-"

"You thought I had put One Million into the Gold. I didn't." You explain, "What I actually did was this: I set out to buy 100 kilograms, I chose Gold Sovereigns, I paid the nice man at Centennial Precious Metals. The bill came to One Million Dollars."

"That's what I've been saying," says your friend. "You put $1 million into Gold..."

"No," you interject. "You're not listening to what I'm saying. Here it is again. For my financial security I had an interest to buy over twelve thousand Sovereigns. That's what I did. It happened to cost $1 million. You, on the other hand, simply want to put One Million of your Dollars into Gold. You can do that at ANY time, now or in the future. So what I'm saying to you is to do it whenever it happens to be convenient for you to do it."

"Huh?" shrugs your friend.

"Look," you say, "carrying about 50 pounds at a time, it took me four trips back and forth to the truck to carry in all my Gold to my vault. Oh, my back! But that was then, and this is now. As you've already noticed and pointed out, the Gold Market is indeed heating up. I'm guessing that if your willing to wait a while to convert your target of One Million Dollars into Gold, you might be able to carry your Gold home easily in a small thin paper bag, with room to spare for an sandwich and an apple for lunch along the way. Quite convenient, indeed!"

Gold. Get you some while it's still inconveniently heavy for the price. --- Aristotle

miner49er

(05/01/2002; 14:50:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74693)

What is the sound of one currency inflating...?

http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfmhttp://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor213884

btw... fwiw...

The last 5 business days' "temporary" open market operations from the Fed: (the second link is to the HOF posting of the inestimable TownCrier - an excellent lesson on repurchase agreements...)

5-01: $8 billion
4-30: $5 billion
4-29: $7.5 billion
4-26: $6 billion
4-25: $5 billion 28 day RPs + $5.5 billion ovenights

bail out souring bets, stave off crunching credit, and rocket fuel for the market indexes...

Usul

(05/01/2002; 15:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74694)

Boom-bust fears after biggest monthly rise

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,707925,00.html"The news that the price of an average home has now topped the �100,000 mark came hours after the Bank of England's deputy governor, David Clementi, said there was no "bubble" in the property market and hinted that interest rates were not about to rise because of house prices...

"The Nationwide said that after adjusting for inflation, average prices were now for the first time higher than they were at the previous peak reached in the summer of 1989 during the final days of the "Lawson boom". In the five years that followed, 400,000 homes were repossessed and one in four property owners fell into negative equity as prices fell steadily."

Jade

(05/01/2002; 15:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74695)

US Dollar Index

This is the time to keep a weary eye on the US Dollar Index. We have a major juncture at this date. The sloping upward support line for the dollar for about the last 10 years was resting on 115 Tuesday [which has not been penetrated]. The sloping upward support line from the year 2000 was resting on 115 on Tuesday [which also has not been penetrated]. The downward trend channel for the last four months has the bottom of that channel resting on 115 [and also has not been penetrated to further downside]. Today at 114.6, we broke through all "three" of these trend lines at this juncture every so slightly. The fact is, we broke through. There is no doubt many FX traders will be looking at the charts tonight [with a weary eye on the USD Index action over the next 48 hours]. No need to tell you what this may do to the price of Spot Gold here.

Solomon Weaver

(05/01/2002; 15:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74696)

Nice little story Ari

Very yes to two posts down.

We kings and philosophers of old have the same minds.

POS

Rock

(05/01/2002; 15:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74697)

The Tale of two investment mindsets

AristotleVery well put Aristolle, the moral of the story is when the USD is only worth about 20 cents buying a million dollars worth of gold isn't going to go far. He certainly isn't going to get 12,000 gold Sovereigns with his million like the other guy did. What took you three trips to the truck to get to your vault will only take him one trip with a brown paper bag. LOL that was a good one.

Sir Rock

Boxman

(05/01/2002; 15:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74698)

Aristotle messege #74692

"Gold. Get you some while it's still inconveniently heavy for the price. --- Aristotle"

That has got to be the best line of the year. A real keeper. Thanks for the chuckle.

Canuck

(05/01/2002; 15:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74699)

Big rumour stirring

A note to Canuck friends near Ottawa.

An informed buddy big in the freight/shipping business informed me today that 50 cargo/freight ships have arrived in Montreal.

Rumour is stirring that a major tech firm in Ottawa is pulling the plug and heading back to Europe. I asked him who he had his eyes on.

He said no way to be sure on any of the rumour, too early to be placing bets, but his first guess was Alcatel.

If true, whomever it is, it will murder 'silcon valley north'.

I'll keep my ears open.

The Invisible Hand

(05/01/2002; 16:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74700)

GATA negates property rights

I'm sorry, I'm late, I've been away in the last 24 hours, but
"[GATA] Press release on suit against Kinross by Berger & Montague and Reg Howe"
reads
"Since the 1998 merger pursuant to which Kinross acquired
control of Kinam, as alleged in the complaint, Kinross has
consistently and repeatedly acted to impair the value of
Kinam Preferred Stock in order to facilitate a subsequent
purchase at an unfair price, culminating in the coercive
and illegal Tender Offer of February-March 2002."

I worry:
If the value of the stock has been impaired why did the holders not sell their stock?
What's an unfair price? Earlier the press release said that Kinross violated the "best price rule" promulgated under Section 13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Is the best price the same as a fair price? Or is the best price the price before the action to impair the value of the stock and the fair price then the price resulting from the impairment? Who can determine this? By what standards?

I wonder what gold stands for in GATA's eyes, but for me it doesn't stand for the allegations against Kinross.

And the email to contact Berger & Montague, P.C. is investorprotect@bm.net. How can investors be protected if their property rights, including their right to sell, are not recognized?

Belgian

(05/01/2002; 17:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74701)

Gold Wars

Today's strong dollar-decline NOT compensated with POG rise !? Strange !
Who is selling the dollar, with how much power and what target ?
What about the short positions (5.000 >>> 26.000 mt) of the bank-cartel (Deutsche/JPM-C/GS etc) ? Howhowww.
This must be a conflicting situation for at least one side of the equation. A too fast declining dollar not correctly corresponding with expiry dates on the massive derivative short positions on Gold !
Could we see both dollar and Gold declining ? If so, someone will use declining dollar-reserves to buy Gold at spot and provoke POG rise for compensation ? Or am I jumping too fast to conclusions/suppositions and is the today's anomaly due to 1 of may inactivity in Europ ? Thoughts anyone ?

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 17:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74702)

US Dollar Diving!

Has anyone been watching the US Dollar Index plunge today? It has fallen sharply below 115. This is definitely going to be positive for Gold.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 18:11:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74703)

U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC
Snippit:

New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks have been hitting the brakes on loans to companies harder than at any time in at least three decades, tightening standards and refusing to finance businesses that don't retain them for other services.

Black Blade: This shows how much confidence the banks have in the US "economic recovery". Of course we already know that the economic recession is deepening and certainly corporate earnings have failed to materialize. Without consumer spending and companies burdened under crushing record debt, it is no wonder then that US banks are tightening their standards for loans. So while the bankers Wall Street pimps bark that all is well, just pay attention to what they do. This recession is poised for further decline. There is no fundamental reasoning that suggests otherwise.

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 18:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74704)

Probe of analysts reportedly widens

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/121/business/SEC_seen_asking_10_firms_for_data+.shtmlSEC seen asking 10 firms for data

Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Amid reports that regulators are asking 10 major Wall Street firms for information about their research policies, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commision said yesterday there was enough ''questionable conduct'' by Wall Street analysts to merit an inquiry into whether fraud was committed.

Harvey Pitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, spoke in a television interview a few days after the SEC launched an investigation to determine whether analysts rated certain stocks highly just so their firms could obtain lucrative investment-banking business. ''I think that there is evidence of enough questionable conduct that we owe it to the public to satisfy ourselves'' whether there was fraud, Pitt told the CNBC financial television network.

Pitt's comments come as the SEC begins ramping up its inquiry and top Merrill Lynch & Co. executives prepare to meet with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer this week to present a settlement offer, people with knowledge of the matters told The Wall Street Journal. Spitzer and the SEC are looking into whether investment houses, such as Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney, and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, mislead investors with overly optimistic research on companies that also did business with their investment banking documents.

Black Blade: Note that New York has its own investigation underway. The obvious conclusion is that there will be many lawsuits against the Wall Street investment houses. This could become bigger than asbestos and tobacco litigation. This story has a long way to go. Wait until more dirt is dug up as these investigations proceed.

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 18:20:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74705)

USD Index Chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Take a look now before the chart switches over the next 24 hours. The huge dive of the USD!

- Black Blade

Chris Powell

(05/01/2002; 18:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74706)

Barrick moving on AngloGold, explaining Anglo's strange talk

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1094Barrick moves on AngloGold, explaining
AngloGold's talking up the gold price
before it finishes covering its shorts.

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Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 18:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74707)

Natural gas futures prices rise as oil prices drop

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142519

Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 1 -- The June contract for natural gas jumped by 23.4� to $3.80/Mcf Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but other petroleum futures prices were down. The NYMEX June crude oil contract fell 28� to $27.29/bbl, while the July position lost 19� to $26.93/bbl.

After the close of the NYMEX session, officials of the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories increased by 7.6 million bbl last week to 325.6 million bbl. Distillate stocks also were up by 2.7 million bbl to 121.2 million bbl. However, with the nation poised for the start of the summer driving season, US gasoline stocks dropped 1.6 million bbl to 210.5 million bbl.

Black Blade: Note � even though injection increased last week by 38 bcf, that is slightly more than half of the prior weeks injection. Also, as storage levels are much higher, this has much to do with several new storage facilities in the wake of last years energy crisis. With lower NG exploration and production there has been essentially a transfer NG from existing wells to storage and very little increase in reserves. This is an unsustainable situation that will lead to additional future price spikes when supply is drawn down and few new wells are in production. Currently NG is at $3.70 Mbtu.

Solomon Weaver

(05/01/2002; 18:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74708)

USD Forest for the Trees

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12Hey Black Blade

Yes...looking at the 24 hours scale on NYBOT DXY really does look like going over niagra falls.

To get a little perspective, I walked the plank out each time increment to 1 yr on the chart options and noticed that the chart of the last month, since we broke below the 50 day moving average is a lot like the month of Jul 15-
Aug 15 2001 since we broke the 50 day before.

113 seems to have been an interesting support....and then just as we were heading for new lows...Sept 11 came along and the trend is reversed.

It makes me wonder if another terrorist event happened today if the world would run back into the dollar.

Poor old Solomon

Pizz

(05/01/2002; 18:59:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74709)

Belgian

Re: Dollar Sell Off

It appears that Sec. O'Neil did not defend a strong dollar policy at the Senate today. His basic comments were no comment with the reasoning that he would not give speculators ammunition.

My feel is the speculators are getting out.

As far as gold not going up accordingly, same old story -trench warfare and close combat. The shorts have their back upagainst a 310 311 wall with a fair size abyss behind it???

Same with DOW. Feels like foreign money (that's a guess on my part)or big US money may be moving to calmer waters. Pressure on all markets right now.

Pizz

YGM

(05/01/2002; 19:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74710)

Barrick, Anglo & Godsell

& the GATA CREW.....Things in Gold's world are getting more explosive by the week.....Makes you wonder what's next.....Not just interesting times but now "Exciting" as well....

Gold Advocates owe a great deal to Bill, Chris, Reg, & GATA in the mix of all we now see and hear.....

THANKS SEEMS INADEQUATE FOR SO MUCH TIME SPENT, FAMILIES PUT ON HOLD, AND SO MUCH MORE WE'LL NEVER KNOW ABOUT OR HEAR COMPLAINTS OF FROM THESE TIRELESS FEW....

SO "GO GATA" SHAKA ZULU HAD THE BATTLE PLAN FROM DAY ONE!!

Solomon Weaver

(05/01/2002; 19:17:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74711)

Jim Pupluva's Market Update is quite rich today

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmDon't miss today's comments....

I also realized in reading them that most of my friends and co-workers would think he's crazy....but just like Black Blade...he nails everything to the wall.

POS

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 19:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74712)

Riders On The Storm - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/series2/riders/complete.htmEnergy Will Be A Permanent Problem

Snippit:

This time around, our energy crisis is not temporary. It will become permanent unless we do something about it. Unless we solve it, our future prosperity and that of the world could become imperiled. We have been fortunate in the U.S. in that our excess demand for energy has been supplied by imports from OPEC and other foreign producers. This has come at the expense of a deteriorating trade deficit. However, a day is coming in the not too distant future when our voracious appetite for energy will compete against the demands from emerging world economies. The desire of growing populations in lesser-developed nations to maintain and increase their standard of living intensifies the demand on the world's mineral resources. The United States, with only 5% of the world's population, uses about a third of the globe's annual energy supplies. As we import more of our energy and raw materials (resources in which we were once self-sufficient), we will increasingly lose control over our future economic destiny. Many in the U.S. just don't get it. The era of cheap and abundant energy is gone.

Energy and minerals are the basis of our modern civilization. Without these resources, nations are doomed to remain at poverty levels. If denied access to supplies, countries will either resign themselves to a position of poverty or as in the case of Japan in 1941, go to war. With no new frontiers to explore, nations will continuously face conflicts and jostle for position for access to the earth's raw materials. Future military conflicts like the Gulf War and the current conflict in the Middle East will be over access to the earth's remaining resources of energy, water, fertile soil and other base minerals. It is for these reasons that we must begin now to solve this crisis. The severity of a recession, or the strength of a recovery, will depend on the job that is done.

Black Blade: Puplava tackles a boatload of information in this Storm Watch update. Not just energy, but debt, corporate spending, etc. In short he presents his case against an economic recovery. As I have been hitting hard on myself for since 1998. This is the culmination of a series of events that are converging to form the "Perfect Storm". Definitely well worth reading � warning � it is long and covers quite a bit of material.

BTW, I see he gives a thumbs up to USAGOLD at the bottom of the page.

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 20:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74713)

States Pressing Analyst Probe

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11428-2002Apr30.html
Snippit:

State regulators are moving ahead with a coordinated investigation of conflicts of interest among stock analysts on Wall Street, sources said yesterday, to the dismay of the securities industry, which is backing a Securities and Exchange Commission-led probe of the issue. Officials from at least five states -- New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Alabama and Massachusetts -- spent a day last week with representatives of the office of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer to study his work on Merrill Lynch & Co., the sources said.

Black Blade: First it was the SEC, then New York, and now more states are getting onboard. It looks like a massive deluge of lawsuits, fines and possible prison sentences are in the offing.

Black Blade

(05/01/2002; 20:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74714)

Argentina Pays Record 95% Rate at Central Bank Debt Auction

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APM6IBBRAQXJnZW50
Snippit:

Buenos Aires, April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank paid a record 95 percent interest rate to sell 61 million pesos ($20.7 million) of 15-day bills yesterday to help shore up the currency.

Black Blade: From the frying pan into the fire.

BTW, the USD is weakening further.

Solomon Weaver

(05/01/2002; 20:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74715)

Where liquid dollars are flowing in from

http://www.compareinterestrates.com/default.asp2/3 of all homeowners have gone to the fountain of second mortgages

POS

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/01/2002; 21:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74716)

I won't eat at the following restaurants:

A basic warning about Eco Bay. Watching large block orders coming across all yesterday and today. MM was not refreshing his ask. (means he has like an unlimited amount of float for sale) So it's going the way of Crystalex down for the count. Top execs wanted to raise near $20 million to reduce debt by floating more sheers out. Why can't they just work for a living. Anyway, it's new junk like the old junk. Newmont came in and took Eco's silver mine and did a 100 million debt for sticks swap. Now why would Newmont go for the silver mine when probably it could have gone after any of the other gold mines that Eco had? Must be some important silver in them hills. With US western electricity costs being so high, that is going to factor in to recovery cost of revenue. I'm jest a warning ye of the 10Q and 10K's statements that can be taken either way. Double talk is becoming profound in them. Every minor miner has some fly in the ointment. It's can they flick it out with some operation in a third world area where they can get away with using the giant trucks and super scoops. TVX is going to have a tough time trying to mine the Olympias project with the threat of the town above collapsing into the "project". How many millions did the "godfathers" reep on that one. Turn it into an olive grove. With the hope of a ten for one reverse split, wow, I get less and it's more. No, not for me. Another MM with megafloat to pawn off.
But no flunkie miner review is complete without a mention of Las Christas, the problem child with a multiple split personality. Gold Reserve does have a valid claim to its Brisas consession IF the CVG "feels" good enough about it to not take them into its kangaroo court. Vanessa (not the babe) just the small open door for Placer Dome's "back entrance". CVG was crying when Placer pulled out, Vanessa isn't rich enough to steal from. Anyway, who is going to clean up all the mercury spillage that covers the Cristas toxic waste site? Wildcaters seem to leave a practical joke behind. Then what amazes me when they calculate production costs with 95 cent per pound copper, billions of tons of copper. So do we cover the earth with copper cookware? Extra copper plumbing for the cold water side? The price of copper isn't going to skyrocket with a post 1929 world recession??? Oh, but this is a semi-semi precious metal the copper is, and the world needs more and more now that we are going to fiber optic cables made of glass. Well it's a TKOCF sort of thing and the public just doesn't understand. "Talk like a goldmine, walk in circles like a copper pit". Place-your-dime on the big copper price wheel and that's all Placer Dome is, a multinational copper biz dancing with the goldminers but it can't get in step. Well, when you see the sun come up tomarrow it's really beemin bright. Take refuge Juliete its all going into the bank.
-GR2

sourdough

(05/01/2002; 21:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74717)

Trizezhahn exchangeable debentures (ABX)30 million shares

http://www.trizechahn.com/trizechahn/ii/download/fbq4_T1.pdfI found the paper related to exchangeable debentures issued by Trizechahn.
They appear to be exchangeable by the holder at 32 ABX shares per U.S. $1000 on the first 8.9 million shares.
The other debentureS have a rate of 52 ABX shares per U.S. $1000.
They secured a loan by pledging over 30 million shares of Barrick.
It appears they have an option to exchange cash for the shares at the then present rate.
So, somebody has a lean on 30 million Barrick shares.
As Trizechahn reorganizes I naturally wondered if they were having troubles.
When Gold runs,
Will TRIZEC be in a position to hang on the shares?
How much money is likely to be made on those shares?
How much "clout" would a 30 million share holder have/HAD over ABX hedging policy?
Myself, I thought this loan structure could have implications that more than meet the eye.
I would appreciate if someone could take a look at the loan and comment if I have understood correctly.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/01/2002; 21:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74718)

While they're going up, they're still go down

PREMIS:
A currency gaining strength attracts foreign capital. A weakening currency repels foreign investment.

How many of the market analysis wizards understand that a falling dollar pulls a vacume on every equity listing including the index options, including bonds, including real estate in USA. Hence the beginning of the bull market in commodities of which GOLD is king.

The entire capitalization of all the goldmines in the world is less than the price of McDonalds corp. (50 billion) So when do we see millions of ounces served daily? I try to tell people about gold so they don't get hurt in the next big crash, but they haven't a clue and think you're nuts for speaking of reality.

sourdough

(05/02/2002; 00:44:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74719)

Trizezhahn exchangeable debentures (ABX)30 million shares

Can anyone make the argument that Munk, aka Trizechahn would prefer that ABX does not climb in price to be in the money on these debentures?
Can the same be said for any increase in the ABX dividend?
Dividend (ABX) is a factor in determining interest rate of debentures.
If gold were to rise and carry ABX with it into and above exhange rate, Munk would be at risk of either losing the 30 million ABX shares and the capital gain, or if he wanted to keep them, it would cost the higher price.
It would appear to me that the best thing for Trizechahn would be that gold and Barrick just stumble along at a price low enough to prevent exercise and necessity for Barrick to increase the dividend until the time they can pay back the loan.
This would be a good deal on interest rates if things don`t get out of hand and the gold price doesn`t drag Barrick up to high.
Can anybody see it this way, besides me?

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74720)

Rich finds in volcanoes

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=1842941&thesection=news&thesubsection=general"The submarine mountains contained some of the world's richest mineral deposits, including copper, lead and zinc, and gold at six parts per million - twice the ratio of gold mined at Macraes Flat near Dunedin"

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74721)

Tokyo hits back at downgrade

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/01/1019441393795.html"The Ministry of Finance has sent a letter of complaint to Standard and Poor's and Moody's, questioning their objectivity and reliability...

"Your explanations regarding rating decisions are mostly qualitative in nature and lack objective criteria, which invite questions about the larger issue of the reliability of ratings itself," a summary of his letter said."

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74722)

How Wall Street's Analysts Fooled Public on Verisign

http://www.nypost.com/business/47014.htm"Even after their research is proven wrong, analysts are fooling with the facts to make it look as if they got clients out of the way of a collapsing stock..."

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74723)

Stock market in dead-cat bounce

http://www.nypost.com/business/47049.htm"...nothing more than a bear market rally..."

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74724)

Dow breaks 10,000

Aaaaargh! It's deja vu all over again!

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74725)

Fiber-Optic Overdose Racks Up Casualties

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18217-2002May1.html" "We may have put 80 years' worth of capital into the ground," said Vince Tobkin, director of the technology practice at consulting firm Bain & Co., referring to a massive installation of underground fiber-optic networks..."

"In time, however, Wall Street and the banks began to realize that the telecom overcapacity was so profound (less than 10 percent of all that fiber-optic wire is being used, for example), and unit prices were falling so fast (the cost of a cellular minute fell 25 percent in a year), that it was unlikely anyone was going to make any money anytime soon"

Me:
The overcapacity, malinvestment and corruption caused by a boom/bubble/bull of such magnitude will not be purged overnight! The bust will be pro-rata, IMHO. (Oh yes, and gold should serve well to preserve wealth in such an environment).

Spartacus

(05/02/2002; 01:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74726)

O'Neill Unbowed on Dollar

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18117-2002May1.htmlBy Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 2, 2002

Practically everyone who spoke at a Senate hearing yesterday agreed that the U.S. dollar is too strong and that America's trade deficit is dangerously high � everyone, that is, except the man who mattered most, Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill.

And at the beginning of his testimony, he made it clear that he wasn't about to depart from his support for the policy, first articulated during the Clinton administration, that a strong dollar is in America's interest. The strength of the dollar against the Japanese yen, euro and other currencies makes U.S. exports more expensive on world markets and makes imports cheap, thereby causing the trade gap to widen. But O'Neill said he wouldn't alter his position.

"As I read the wire clips from around the world this morning, there's apparently some breathless anticipation [in currency markets] that I'm going to say something to intentionally indicate a change in policy position or direction," he told the panel. "I want to assure you at the outset, whatever I may say, that is not the intent."

Spartacus

(05/02/2002; 01:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74727)

British funds cut U.S. holdings, go euro

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020430/markets_britain_allocation_2.html
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - British fund managers are shaving back exposure to U.S. assets in favour of the euro zone, driven by concerns that despite an economic recovery U.S. profits will not grow fast enough to justify valuations.

Usul

(05/02/2002; 01:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74728)

"Bush administration... could default..."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.html"Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday"

Does this spell increasing risk? Yields are compensation for risk - and here, circumstances are pointing towards raised interest rates. As Bill Gross of Pimco (no small-time money manager) has pointed out, nonfinancial corporate sector debt as a percentage of cash flow has risen to record highs, and they have apparently moved to short-term debt which is over-sensitive to rate hikes, thus putting Greenspan between a rock and a hard place. He is loath to raise rates because that would increase interest repayments big time, affecting both corporate and private sectors who have loaded up on cheap debt. But in being so constrained, he is asking for inflation to break loose. Yet if he raises rates too much, interest repayments will kill the retail economy stone dead. Greeny is balanced on a knife edge between an inflationary or deflationary recession. Gold should be useful to preserve wealth in either environment, IMHO!

"Does Greenspan dare do more in this next tightening cycle? Nay � he will do less once the 9/11 emergency reductions have been taken back to a more normal 3% or so. Too many big time 'players' on the short side. The systemic risk is certainly anything but de minimus... And because Greenspan must keep short rates relatively low, the risk of inflation in future years will be greater than otherwise..." - William H. Gross, April 2002

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 03:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74729)

Oil Falls as Arafat Emerges From Compound

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020502/markets_oil_2.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about one percent on Thursday as Israel ended a siege of Palestinian headquarters in Ramallah, easing fears of a spread of violence and potential supply disruptions from the oil-rich Middle East.

Black Blade: I wonder if he saw his shadow? If he did does that mean 6 more weeks of winter?

Spartacus

(05/02/2002; 04:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74730)

the Indian gold market

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/walker/walker050202.htmlGold Shortage Now
George Walker
May 02, 2002

--It is absolutely fascinating to observe what is currently occurring in the world gold markets, as suddenly there seems to be a notable gold shortage. I estimate the shortage to be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 300 plus tonne annual deficit range. That is a rate of 25 tonnes per month. This shortage can be readily confirmed by monitoring the Indian gold market.--

Canuck

(05/02/2002; 04:30:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74731)

Godsell out of WGC, Chris Thompson in

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/walker/walker050202.html

"German buying being a significant factor was first brought to my attention by way of Chris Thompson of Gold Fields Ltd. As he is now replacing Bobby Godsell of Anglogold as head of the WGC, I would assume that he knows what he is talking about"

-end-

I was unaware of this!! This is good news.

Topaz

(05/02/2002; 04:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74732)

No pressure, if lease rates are a guide.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/2002gofo.htmLease rates have laughed off the current uptick - which indicates most of the momentum has been created in the many forms of paper investments available to the "astute" Gold investor....sheesh!
On another front, Koisumi san has just completed a visit to Australia. Apart from the now mandatory visit to a War Museum, he discussed a Free Trade agreement with OZ. (thats the one.....you give us your resources....for FREE) however this time I feel it's different -
His visit comes hot on the heels of a Chinese Delegation - last week - and US noises re Free Trade of late.
Looks like World trade is Polarising into an US-v-Them situation quite quickly.

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 04:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74733)

Dollar Stays on Defensive

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020502/markets_forex_2.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to pull off multi-month lows against the euro and the yen on Thursday as doubts over the United States' commitment to a strong currency persisted.

"We have seen a complete sea-change in sentiment toward the dollar, and people are now just looking for excuses to sell," said Neal Kimberley, manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.

The greenback, already reeling on concerns over the pace of U.S. recovery, suffered one of its biggest one-day falls this year on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill failed to convince markets over his country's commitment to a strong dollar policy.

Black Blade: The USD must weaken in order to narrow the booming trade deficit. Exporters can not compete in foreign markets and at the same time the recession deepens.

Topaz

(05/02/2002; 05:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74734)

@Canuck

Perhaps we may see a shift from promoting "value-adding to the Barbarous relic" eh? ...good link.

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 05:30:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74735)

IEA Urges U.S. to Boost Production

http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=13334400&template=gas/indexsearch.txt∈dex=recent
Snippit:

PARIS (AP) � The United States must increase production of oil and natural gas if the country is to meet its future growth in energy demand and reduce its dependence on imports, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. ``A secure energy supply is essential to underpin economic growth,'' IEA Executive Director Robert Priddle told a news conference, after the agency released its review of U.S energy policies.

The Paris-based agency said current domestic production of natural gas � which is growing at 4 percent a year � was not enough to meet growing demand, and urged the United States to step up drilling in new areas both onshore and offshore. ``We'd like to see an opening up of the Arctic reserves in an environmentally sensitive way, because the U.S. needs new sources of supply,'' Priddle said.

The IEA also encouraged the re-licensing of existing nuclear power plants in the United States, saying that it would ensure a continuing, substantial component in power production. No nuclear plants have been constructed there since 1973.

Black Blade: Even the IEA (a French organization) understands that the supply of energy is important to the US economy and also a national security issue.

LeSin

(05/02/2002; 06:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74736)

Gold Dinar + Islamic Financial Principles @ "The Times They Are a Changing"

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020502/200205020329000129_1.htmlhttp://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020502/200205020329000129_1.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday May 2, 3:29 am Eastern Time
10 Central Banks To Form Advisory Body On Islamic Financial Services

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Central bankers from 10 Islamic countries have agreed to form an umbrella advisory body based in Kuala Lumpur to promote the application of Islamic law in their financial services industries.

The Islamic Financial Services Board, or IFSB, will set principles and adapt existing international standards consistent with Islamic law, or Shariah, according to a news release from the International Monetary Fund.

The agreement, reached on the sidelines of the recent IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington , D.C ., concludes two years of talks among the central bankers, the Islamic Development Bank and the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Malaysia plans to initially use gold dinar within small group "

"MALAYSIA plans to initially use the gold dinar as a currency for trading with a small group of countries, in the hope it would slowly gain international acceptance.
"We are trying to work it out with three or four countries that we have close ties with,�� said Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who proposed the system last month to reduce the risk of speculation in bilateral trading. "

"The Arab and Gulf states ... maybe they'll accept it,�Ehe told reporters after attending a Labour Day function in Kuala Lumpur yesterday."

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

"The prime minister, who recently visited Libya, Bahrain and Morocco, said the three countries had responded enthusiastically to the plan."

"He said however that no deadline had been set for the launch."

"We have to solve the problems first. There will be lots of problems,�EDr Mahathir said, adding that Malaysia intended to host an international conference on the subject."

"He said gold was also open to some risk of speculation but it was safer than conventional currency, which had no intrinsic value and could be manipulated indefinitely. "

"You cannot speculate too much in the price"

LeSin

(05/02/2002; 06:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74737)

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

GOLD - "InStead of the US$"Worth Repeating - sort of drives the message home,yes?

"Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the US dollar. "

Cheers "S"

nickel62

(05/02/2002; 07:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74738)

Watching the Swisss lower rates and their Franc sink in currency markets...made me think!

The power that the world has given the US dollar to be the determinate of foreign trade has loosed a terrible tyranny in the world.
The current global trading structure allows the US and it's paper reserve currency the power to determine what the competitive position of all the world's people will be. As long as the US Federal Reserve is allowed to continue their relative monopoly on what is money they can force the rest of their trading partners to do things that may not be in the longterm best interests of those partners economies or their people.

When we can bubble our stock valuations and at the same time put downward pressure on the spot prices of any commodity we chose, the trading/banker establishment in the US can effectively vacuum up the value added from all those other countries that we trade with.They demand that our trading partners recycle their US dollar earnings from exporting to the US to be invested in US Treasury securities which lowers US interest rates even further, or they will be excluded from our domestic markets. They create freely floating currencies that allow them to determine the cost competiveness of all countries by changing the cost basis of the production and they fuel their own production by lending dollars to buy more US dollar denominated machinery and other production inputs at the then prevailing currency exchange rate.

By setting the spot price of commodities through market pressure acheived with unlimited leverage from Derivatives and unlimited US dollar credit creation the US can "set" the price of any commodity or currency at a price which doesn't even allow for the coverage of the costs of production of that product. This effectively makes the producers of these commodities slaves producing for a market in the US that pays them less than it costs them to produce these products if the true costs of the capital investment inputs are taken into account.

By controlling this process the transfer becomes a form of servitude. IF a country like Switzerland wants to fight against this process we will simply allow their currency to appreciate and their export industries become uncompetitive. If they fight the US dollar hegemony of these markets they will be destroyed by their own strong currency. If they argue about the gold dishoarding they will be rewarded with a Swiss Franc so highly valued their economies will suffer.

So our colonialism becomes irresistable for even the strongest countries and for the second and third tier countries of the world it is total slavery...produce at the market price we control or slump into recession and deperession from your lack of an exportable basis for your economy. As their industries become unable to replenish their capital base because the price we allow them to earn for their output is insufficient to earn them the ability to have any national wealth savings they are sucked further and further into the game.

They borrow from the IMF in US dollar loans to survive and this very borrowing then becomes further demand for dollars that allow their servitude to be perpetuated. A vicious new form of economic colonialism that robs the value creation of the whole world and transfers it into the hands of a small group of traders in the money centers of the west.

Our trading partners must return their export earnings to our capital markets through the US Strong Dollar policy and its various dictates or be denied access to the US market. Price your product at the lowest world price we can manipulate or be made totally reduntant and suffer the political turmoil in your own country as your population is forced into unemployment levels that are untenable.

The only answer is to make this monster visible for the victims before they fly another plane into the infrastructure of the beast to draw attention to the scheme.

nickel62

(05/02/2002; 07:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74739)

In light of the previous commnets it is easy to see the entire crux of the US relationship with Isreal and the various oil producing countries of the Middle East...

In a nutshell the Saudis and the Iran/Kuwait/Iraq petroleum reserves(that are all fairly tightly located in a relatively small geographic area) contain the worlds lowest cost petroleum production. IF the US/UK were not able to ensure the control of these reserves then the price could be set at whatever level those who did control those areas wanted to charge..the game would be over...and the US/UK would be the servants and not the masters. The support of Isreal and its only populous possible combatant Egypt with unbelievable levels of direct foreign aid only makes sense in this light. We have the Isreali enforcer in the region to keep the muslim slaves in line..the royal family is there after all only because we put them in power and back it up with the US military might, but we need a close local power to punish those who might take actions against our control and that is the function of Isreal pure and simple...the other is all just dross to confuse and justify the process..It is time that we understood what we are really doing and see if the US population are really willing to lose their sons in the process.

CoBra(too)

(05/02/2002; 07:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74740)

Barrick's Hedge Book - Already under Water!

Says Doug Pollitt - No wonder the co. is looking for more physical to keep the game afloat a little longer. Bill Murphy's take on Barrick trying a fast one on Anglo Gold is probably a bit premature in MHO as the real power behind Anglo Gold is Anglo American ... We'll see - cb2

" Globe says Barrick's profitable hedging days wane"

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 537,813,627 May 1 close $32.14
Thu 2 May 2002 In the News
The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, May 2, edition that Barrick
Gold saw its profit for the first quarter of 2002 fall almost 50 per cent
from the same period a year earlier as its ability to make money from its
hedge-trading activities diminishes. The Globe's Allan Robinson writes that
profit for the three months ended March 31 was $46-million or nine cents a
share, compared with a profit of $87-million or 16 cents a year earlier
(all figures U.S.). Last year's figure included a $52-million non-hedge
derivative gain. Barrick's revenue was $478-million, compared with
$499-million last year, as a result of lower production and prices on its
gold sales. The fair value of Barrick's hedge position has declined to a
loss of $127-million, down from a surplus of $356-million at the end of
2001, says Pollitt & Co. analyst Douglas Pollitt. "In the past, the company
booked gains from its hedge book into earnings," says Mr. Pollitt. "Now
they are losing money on the books." Barrick says that $483-million swing
in the off-balance-sheet item is mainly a result of the $23 rise in the
price of gold, and it represents 22 per cent of the gold reserves, which
are hedged.
(c) Copyright 2002 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.stockwatch.com

Hipplebeck

(05/02/2002; 07:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 74741)

nichel62

Well said sir!!
It came home to me solidly when I was watching that pbs special about the global economy.
They showed a man in India with some sort of grains piled up on his wagon being drawn by oxen. He was on his way to the market, and the commentator stated that the price of his grain was being set in the Chicago mercantile. This just makes me sick to see that some greedy suits who probably have never even stood in a field of grain are setting the living level of someone on the other side of the world. How can this possibly be? I cannot wait to see this system fall.

On watching the Middle East, I see that the media thinks we are on a safer road, but the only thing I see is that Arafat is being set up once again to be a policeman against his own people to "stop terrorism" It is all a joke, because no matter what window dressing they put on it, the big war is inevitable. No matter how much dancing around the subject they do, the war is about which flag flies over the temple mount. It is possible I suppose that we could all go into another period of "negotiations" while more settlements are built and things are consolidated on the ground, but don't expect it to last very long. The war is about Jerusalem, and the clock is ticking. Things will have to come to a head sooner or later. Economic collapse or world war? which comes first?

CoBra(too)

(05/02/2002; 07:51:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74742)

@ Nickel

Sir, I fully concur with your recent posts. I'm also grateful, that these thoughts have been forwarded by an North American - hope I'm correct here - instead of any other nationality... Who may have held these notions for quite some time - though, reluctant to state it officially
due to the concern of passing the blame and still benefitting ... Thank you cb2

PS - Hipplebeck - It's probably not so much Jerusalem or Bethlehem - it's probably in all reality about the availability of cheap oil ...

nickel62

(05/02/2002; 07:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74743)

Yes, I am a north american,

I am saddened that it has become necessary to state the obvious about my countries actions..seems it should be taught in school. But that is probably one of the reasons our public schools are allowed to remain so abysmal. Our world wide media gives brain washing a bad name, as we all know.

YGM

(05/02/2002; 08:04:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74744)

LeSin...Islamic Law....Re-Financial Transactions....

http://www.murabitun.org/WITO/trading.htmlYou Posted.....

Thursday May 2, 3:29 am Eastern Time
10 Central Banks To Form Advisory Body On Islamic Financial Services

SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Central bankers from 10 Islamic countries have agreed to form an umbrella advisory body based in Kuala Lumpur to promote the application of Islamic law in their financial services industries.

The Islamic Financial Services Board, or IFSB, will set principles and adapt existing international standards consistent with Islamic law, or Shariah, according to a news release from the International Monetary Fund. Etc....

*SHARIAH*
Here is a brief of Islamic Law............"NO USURY

The Return of Islamic Trading

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

During the last two hundred years the Muslims have been forced to abandon their own way of conducting their public affairs. Thus Islamic Law has been progressively reduced to a code regarding only individual and sexual matters, while at the same time the ruling of trade and industry has been abandoned. The Murabitun are the first group of activist Muslims,who after this period of darkness, are re-establishing the practice of trade which is declared Halal (permitted) by the Shariah and are abandoning the usurious practices that have corrupted the commercial life at the present day. The Murabitun are leading other Muslims to return to the practice of Islamic Trading.

The Islamic Model concerning trade is based around the prohibition that Allah has made clear in the Qur'an:

"ALLAH HAS PERMITTED TRADE AND FORBIDDEN USURY"
(Qur'an 2, 275)

Allah also says in the Qur'an:

"OH YOU WHO BELIEVE! TAKE SHELTER IN GOD AND ABANDON WHAT REMAINED (DUE TO YOU) OF USURY IF YOU ARE (INDEED) BELIEVERS. BUT IF YOU DO IT NOT, THE TAKE NOTICE OF WAR FROM ALLAH AND HIS MESSENGER"
(Qur'an 2, 278-279)

We acknowledge that the crime of usury is being committed daily against all humanity by the banking system, resulting in the death of thousands of people throughout the world, the starvation of many others, the creation of the unnatural phenomenon of unemployment, the destruction of small businesses and the general impoverishment of most of mankind.

In the face of these well known disasters, at the time of a general recognition that the role of the banks is not innocent, when the majority of analysts recognise that interest debt is a direct cause of death and stagnation in poor countries. Everybody dislikes the banks, but are made to believe as if it were their own thought, that we need the banks! and there is nothing we can do about that! In the face of a general climate of resigned helplessness the Murabitun are creating active solutions. The way out of this usurious banking system must be based on the Islamic Model, in which usury is incompatible with life, proving that WE DO NOT NEED THE BANKS. Part of the model consists of the re-establishment of a successful network of Halal Trading throughout the world, that does not involve any form of interest-debt, control of products by speculative Future and Stock Markets, or any mediation of a bank.

The Islamic Model restores the economical power hijacked by the banks and the state to the common people. It is harmonious to the legitimate aspiration of the ethnic minorities who yearn for total emancipation from the grip of the modern banking-oriented artificial states in order to rule themselves. It returns the life to the impoverished workers by the rooting out of the parasite: The banks that live off the workers' work. In the Islamic Model unemployment does not exist, and the worker is not a slave of a salary, but enjoys his own business, usually in association, free from the compulsion of having to work for someone else for a paltry wage. In the Islamic Model multinationals and hyper-markets are eliminated; rather than one owner and one thousand employees as it is the case in any hyper-market today, in the Islamic Model we have a thousand free owners in an open Free Market. The Islamic Model removes any form of monopoly that has made everybody a humble salaried worker and thus gives a chance of independence to the self-motivated individual in a 'Free-Market-without-usury'.

The Murabitun are promoting the creation of this new way of trading ;or rather, the only one; consisting of:

Minting and putting in circulation of Gold and Silver coins.

Building Free Markets, regulated according to the Islamic Law.

Restoring commercial routes with caravans and fair contracting models.

Restoring the guilds as autonomous institutions of production

Establishing the authority of Judges to rule the commercial disputes.

The Islamic Law guarantees the removal of the smallest trace of usury from commercial agreements, thus guaranteeing the equity in the contracts.

**Now here is a model for CB's and the power behind the scenes to wage war if ever there was one....Noone could imagine the CB cartel of the western world allowing "NO USURY".............YGM.

YGM

(05/02/2002; 08:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74745)

Very Excellent Post......

nickel62 (5/2/02; 07:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74738)My hats off to you for your clarity of thought....I think that the youth of today who protest so strongly against the WTO etc "ARE" on the right track.....Maybe there is hope as always in the 'Next' generation.....Keep those thoughts coming......Regards..YGM

Hipplebeck

(05/02/2002; 08:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74746)

cb2

Please excuse if I sound harsh, but keep your eye on the ball. It is ALL about that one piece of real estate at the temple mount. Whoever controls it, controls the covenant of the god of Abraham. It is not even about the Palestinian state. The war will be fought after all the hype that can be mustered becomes transparent and all the beating around the bushes leaves only the Jerusalem problem obviously insolvable. The temple mount is the ball. If you want to know what's really going on, keep your eye on it. The rest is just negotiating chips to get leverage for the real prize.

Gimli_

(05/02/2002; 08:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74747)

FWIW: Usury prohibited in Old Testament too....

Both Islamic and Mosaic Law prohibit usury. Hmmm....

Lev 25:36-37 Take thou no usury of him, or increase: but fear thy God; that thy brother may live with thee. Thou shalt not give him thy money upon usury, nor lend him thy victuals for increase.

Deut 23:19 Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury:

miner49er

(05/02/2002; 09:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74748)

nickel62 @74738

That was an excellent post, Sir... Your concise summarization of what is often referred to as "Dollar Hegemony" is a must read. Segue from there to the Foundation Posts of FOA in Archive I, and you will see him using these particulars to build the case for the development of an alternative currency to break this monopoly.

miner

YGM

(05/02/2002; 09:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74749)

Now I Wonder How Many Knew That??

Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)That info sure took me by surprise.......

CoBra(too)

(05/02/2002; 09:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74750)

OK - Hipplebeck -

Let us be conciliatory and say it's about the ... lberg! - Mt. of Olives? may be the accepted translation, though that kind of oil has (en-)lightened the benighted for centuries ... anyway, I offer you the olive branch - cb2 ;)

sector

(05/02/2002; 09:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74751)

The National Debt Default Thingy...maybe it's nothing...but Peter Fischer [Mr. Smash Gold] is in it and acting afraid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.htmlU.S. Could Face Debt Crunch on June 28
Treasury Running Out Of Room to Tap Funds

By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 2, 2002; Page E01

Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday.

On that date, the government must make more than $60 billion in semiannual interest payments to trust funds, primarily Social Security. While that is a paper transaction, consisting of new bonds, it counts against the government's $5.95 trillion debt limit. Officials said the Treasury plans to start using a variety of budget tricks later this month to keep the government below the debt limit, but they will not be enough to prevent default on June 28 if Congress does not raise the limit.

"The end of June is really the end of the party. There isn't anything past that," Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher said in an interview yesterday. "It is necessary that Congress do this before the end of June. We expect they are going to do it before the end of June. They need to do it before the end of June."

The administration asked for a $750 billion increase in the debt limit in December, but the request has stalled on Capitol Hill. Republicans have historically been reluctant to vote for an increase in the debt limit, while Democrats have blamed the president's tax cut last year for the current crisis.

"Every day, new information is released confirming that the budget surpluses of the 1990s have been squandered and the government is sliding back into bigger debt and deficits," said Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wherever Fischer is... gold is too. So all his budgetary sabre rattling portends some kind of hidden link between the debt ceiling and gold.

Lord knows M3 is already more than $2 Trillion above the debt ceiling.

The June date also matches reliable GATA's insider comments on a key stress time...we'll see.

Pizz

(05/02/2002; 09:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74752)

Banks running for Cover

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNEKpRSOTGVobWFu
Just trying to put a few pieces together.

Dollar falling.

Argentine banking crisis.

Japanese Banking Crisis looming.

Islamic community talking gold backed international currency (again).

And US banking being cut back world wide.

Snippit from above link:

London, May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fired 10 percent of its European investment banking staff, while J.P. Morgan slashed 23 percent of its Asian bankers as Wall Street firms pull back from foreign expansion.

Combined with this yesterday:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC

Bloomberg:
05/01 00:11
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years

Now, not trying to be too much of a Cassandra, it sure is starting to appear to me that the beginning of the end of Dollar dominance may be upon us.

The multi-national banks appear to be going into "bunker" mentality.

Conclusion: There can be NO recovery anywhere in the world in the near to medium term with contracting banking.

Now, is every one shoring up for the recession/depression from hades, or is a financial nuke ready to go off?

My mind keeps flashing back to LTCM. It's common knowledge that they darn near started a world wide financial collapse, and LTCM has been called a lemonade stand as compared to Enron, let alone Argentina, and Japan's comming problems. ARE WE THAT MUCH BETTER PREPARED TO HANDLE THIS SIZE OF CRISIS? I wouldn't want that bet.

Gold? It's getting harder and harder to see how they can continue to hold the price down. With the mines cutting/covering their hedgebooks, the shorts have been swimming against the tide. Now, with the dollar dropping too, it has to be almost like trying to swim up a waterfall.

Something has to break IMHO.

Pizz

Simply Me

(05/02/2002; 09:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74753)

Usery

Gimli_ (5/2/02; 08:46:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74747)
FWIW: Usury prohibited in Old Testament too....
Both Islamic and Mosaic Law prohibit usury. Hmmm....

Me: True. But the prohibition on usery is often interpreted to apply only to ones own kind. In other words the Muslims were not to charge other Muslims interest. And Jews who charged more than a certain percentage interest to other Jews were looked upon as criminals (much like we view loan sharks today). All other races and religions, however, are fair game.

Simply

RobotGuy

(05/02/2002; 10:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74754)

Prepare DOW, Elliot wave theory is upon you!

RobotGuy

(05/02/2002; 10:16:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74755)

Alas; prepare GOLD, Elliot wave will apply to you also.

YGM

(05/02/2002; 10:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74756)

Thom Calandra...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={EA415BE8-822D-472D-8DCB-F97E3B205FC6}Excerpt...

THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH

Americans: How to wave yellow flag
Individuals slowly accepting gold among investments

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:46 AM ET May 2, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Some of us may be sitting at our computer terminals, thinking, "I can't bring myself to buy gold because I think it is un-American. Or anti-economy."

After 9-11, who wants to be un-American?

Gold companies are this year's best-performing stock market investment. Just take a look at the CBS MarketWatch industry analyzer. Yet investment demand for gold, gold coins and gold mining companies still represents only a sliver of the activity in technology stocks.

Investors just the other day exchanged more than $3.3 billion worth of the vaunted cubes. Cubes are the trading slang for the Nasdaq 100 trust securities (QQQ: news, chart, profile) that represent America's faltering tech stocks. But on a good day for gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest producer of the metal, will see only $200 million or so of its shares change hands.

To be sure, the lure of gold is gaining currency. Futures traders of small lots (fewer than 200 contracts) on New York's Comex are net long more than 100 tons of the metal for only the fifth time. Helping is the fact that gold's price is decisively above $300 an ounce, and looking like it will stay there. See related story.

Plus, there are anecdotal signs sales of America's Gold Eagle coin are picking up, albeit slowly. Sales of U.S. Mint gold coins, priced at $318 per Eagle, are still well below levels of 1998 and 1999. See chart.

Cont'd @ Link...

RobotGuy

(05/02/2002; 11:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74757)

Paper Indicators

I've been monitoring a number of small mining company stocks over the course of the last two years, and I've noticed that not until recently are the thought patterns of your tech type investors entering into the PM mentality. We are at the bottom of a semi-parabolic wave pattern created by word of mouth and pain of lost tech monies. As Calandra has pointed out on more than one occasion, there are relatively few investors in the precious metals markets relatively speaking. These investors have proven to the world that they are willing to play the money game on a worthless stock just to be 'hip' with their colleagues. I know a few individuals who scoffed at the idea of investing in PM's a couple of years ago, but I believe they were basing their attitudes on the opinion of the market cheerleaders at the time. People have been beating down the PM markets for years, so much so that there is a grand negative opinion toward the whole idea. This idea, or attitude, is slowly transforming as we see more positive news and recommendations pertaining to the PM markets. By word of mouth the profits made in these markets will be shared and the news will spread exponentially. Perhaps some of the major tech stocks were worth one tenth or less than what they were trading for, but money driven individuals do not care any longer of the value of a company, that type of knowledge requires research. Many of today's investors are only curious to know what the price per share is, and if their favorite cheerleader mentions it in a positive way.
The trend I've been seeing lately with the smaller mining companies indicates that we are on the verge of this 'breaking trend', and no matter what the actual worth of a mining company may be, if it's 'hip' the lemmings will buy. Some people will invest in a mining company without even doing any research. If a company has the term mining in it's title people will buy it even if the focus product is lead.
Some have already been suggesting that a number of mining companies have already surpassed the actual worth in value of stock, but they are assuming that the price of gold will not surpass it's current levels.

Now for you paper haters, it's not all bad for gold. Big players will see the supply and demand side of things and play with both market shares, and physical to achieve their desired goals.

Soon,... Very soon.

Sierra Madre

(05/02/2002; 11:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74758)

Gold graph is very jumpy!!

Hi everyone!

I'm not a chart reader, don't go in for all the "technical analysis" stuff, BUT...

I just checked out today's gold graph at a neighboring site a few minutes ago, and gold is acting very nervous, it seems to me. Jumpy; up/down, up/down; some steep falls tell me that TPTB are fighting a desperate battle to get the confounded yellow metal DOWN, but it won't stay down.

This yeller dawg has his teeth into JPM's arse and the lousy hound WON'T LET GO!

Rather amusing, I must say. Not too sorry for the shorts.

Sierra

Graefin

(05/02/2002; 12:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74759)

Thanks Nickel62 and Hipplebeck...

Thanks for the great posts...and that was just a reminder of what we're up against. I was raised in the United States, but have spent the last year in Germany, an indefinate stay. Once you're out of the fishbowl, the global problems the United States faces with the rest of the world becomes more glaring, more real. Yes, it frightens me a bit to see where the U.S. is headed...and speaking as an American, all of us were raised in a very spoiled lifestyle compared to the rest of the world. Count your blessings and be happy with what you have; you never know when you may lose it.
Peace and Balance
- Gr�fin

Pizz

(05/02/2002; 12:31:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74760)

Sierra Madre

Astute observation for a non technitian and I like your style with words.

Most technical people call for resistance in the 325 range. I don't see that much resistance there other than the current upward trading channel. One thing the tech's forget is that in a major short squeeze (like we have brewing now) the lines don't mean squat. If this thing pops and a few majors start covering, we'll run to 375 - 400 fairly easily, IMO.

Let the bleeding begin.

Pizz

RobotGuy

(05/02/2002; 13:28:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74761)

Going DOWn?? Heheeheeheeheahahahahaaaaa (evil laugh)

YGM

(05/02/2002; 13:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74762)

FINALLY.......Silver Getting on the Media Radar Screen

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=APM6VYBOFU2lsdmVyIt's a start.....I have alot of faith that the Silver Bull will be running amuck within the next few months.....As Gold news eclipses all else at present, Silver too will have enough media attention soon enough...IMHO.....I still refuse to believe Silver will not again trade back at or near 1/20th multiple of Gold as it has done historicaly.
With Gold at $500.00 p/oz.....Hmmmmm! & don't waste breath telling me it's different this time because I still believe Silver "IS ALSO MONEY"!......YGM.

Solomon Weaver

(05/02/2002; 13:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74763)

Silver is money

Hey YGM

There was a comment on the forum that it was sad that "Agentina" was having money problems when their name is a cognate of money in spanish...in French "argent" means both money and silver.

The use of Ag to designate silver in the periodic table comes from Latin roots.....

What I wonder is, which came first silver or money, cause I sense that they have been one and the same for a long time.

POS (poor old Solomon....or price of silver....which ever you prefer)

Pizz

(05/02/2002; 14:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74764)

YGM

Agree with you on silver, but I had to chuckle after scanning the link.

I guess it doesn't matter if they're right for all the wrong reasons. . . . .

With all the talk of recovery, has anyone actually come out and said just what segment of the economy is supposed to lead the way - oh, I forgot the government, now who's going to lend them the money!!!!

Pizz

R Powell

(05/02/2002; 14:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74765)

YGM

Can we only hope for 1/20th dollar evaluation of silver to gold? From CPM, 5/2/02

"Private investors held about 2 billion ounces of silver in 1990, excluding coins, and are now estimated to be holding about 404 million ounces, CPM said. That would be enough to cover the supply deficit for "three to five years," Christian said."

How much gold is available? Don't include coins as the above silver guesstimate doesn't. We'll probably need a multiple of the present prices of gold or silver before coin melt starts to add to supply. I guess we'll have to endure a silver price pullback from $38.60/ounce to $29.40/ounce when coin melt adds supply but IMHO this will be only a temporary downturn before the second leg up to $100+/ounce. With POG at anything less than $2000/ounce we will have exceeded the 20 to 1 ratio!!?
Sound okay?
Rich

And�ril

(05/02/2002; 14:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74766)

Solomon Weaver you ask 'which came first silver or money...?'

Silver was birthed and for billions of years borne about upon the celestial bosom of Mother Nature. Silver, as also gold, silica, iron, on and on; they may be found in corners where no breath of life has ever stirred the fabric of the mind of God.

You say of silver and money 'I sense that they have been one and the same for a long time.'

First was silver, now what of noney? These various atoms of God are apart from money, money being offspring of the fabric weavings of modern Man, but no less wondrous therefore. A subcreation, if you will. To mix them, God's atoms and Man's money, in one thought and use is to nurture the growth of discord as two worlds collide.

Can you find the wisdom to tread the true path of harmony?

Step this way. There is a shortcoming: the Absolute of PROPERTY OWNERSHIP that Money does not, can not, manifest...

It is thus that you would cheapen the original Creation. Proof is deep. Many bones there have lived with what you see here written.

The Hoople

(05/02/2002; 14:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74767)

YGM

Wall Street is right, you need a diversified portfolio. That's why I am 75% gold, 20% silver and 5% cash. I can't predict which metal launches first so I think you need both. Since our hosts here will sell either (silver begrudgingly?) it's worth an occasional mention. Any non-suppressed rational commodity would have long ago looked at the dwindling silver reserves and already have a price explosion priced in. It will probably be $5 the day it goes off the cliff. Talk about the ultimate barbarous relic, in 1999 100# of silver would have only bought 15 or so shares of Amazon. Even today 100# would barely pay for an old beater automobile. Methinks some day 100# will buy my vacation property in the South of France.

Pizz

(05/02/2002; 15:03:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74768)

Beware of slow steady slides

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=1035450&CFTOKEN=31760243&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=713&menugroup=Home&aol=1Good article on invesment advisor sentiment.

Complacency usually means down, more than just physical objects can fall due to their own weight.

Should coincide with spike up in PM's. SM's hanging by fingernails, PM's beatin' on the door.

_____________________

Why don't the gold shorts just buy enough 315 or 320 call contracts and then cover their shorts? They'd probably make money even after the spike pullback - or is this just too simple? Anyone?

Pizz

mikal

(05/02/2002; 15:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74769)

Silver

@R. Powell- "Sound OK?" Yes, that's just fine by me, for starters. Just let us know when you trade out (or in)!..... @Anduril- Great analogy: stars. And isn't it interesting- gold and silver (& platinum?) cannot be made, were never made, and did not originate on Earth. This is because of the extraordinarily high temperatures required to form these elements, temperatures in gaseous condensation. What we have is from comets & meteors.

YGM

(05/02/2002; 15:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 74770)

A Shared Passion......

SILVER & GOLDPossibly wrought from the fusion of the dust cloud that created this beautiful blue planet, who knows....Silver & Gold however created have as all precious things (even Woman) brought joy to some, sorrow to others....It is with a great sense of peace that we the few look to them with clear and unclouded minds to use for the betterment and sustenence of loved ones....We share the passion and we will share the future, we the few.......YGM

mikal

(05/02/2002; 15:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74771)

Can't leave out:

Meteorites and asteroids also carried the elements to Earth, where they are also found in metallic alloys or compounds.

R Powell

(05/02/2002; 15:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74772)

Pizz

Good question.
You asked, "Why don't the gold shorts just buy enough 315 or 320 call contracts and then cover their shorts? They'd probably make money even after the spike pullback- or is this just too simple?"

I think it's brilliant, not legal, but brilliant. Legality or morality has never been a deterrent to their greed in the past, it won't be now. They could also sell put options (the right to sell at a set price for a set length of time) and collect the premium (cost) for these too! They'd then cover their short position, elevating POG well beyond any of the put strike prices and pocket the premium with no liability. All the calls would become in-the-money options and could be spread out for several years to reduce capital gains taxes. They could also corner the market while they're at it and then squeeze the shorts! Oh, what fun, mayhem, and profit could be wrought! Only one problem other than the legal one, is there enough physical gold available to cover their short obligation? If not, are there any lease clauses that would allow them to repay with greenbacks?
Maybe they could establish a gold to copper ratio and repay with copper. They won't find enough silver!
I've never heard or read anywhere exactly how leased metal repayment is settled if the physical is not attainable. Many have asked but I've never seen any reply other than opinion. Anyone know??
With the lack of transparency in OTC markets, the present shorts may already have an exit plan. Or maybe enough money has been safely stored in some secret retirement locations that the exit plan involves no more than a one way plane ticket. "J P Morgan you say? Nope, come to think of it, we haven't seen him or Mr. Goldman Sacks at all since POG spiked up. What's up? Does he owe you gold?"
Rich

mikal

(05/02/2002; 15:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74773)

@YGM

After reading your post I realized I left out a qualfier that I'd meant to place in my first post. That is the birthplace of Au and Ag are distinct from the other elements of the periodic table, including if I'm correct, rare elements like platinum.

Boxman

(05/02/2002; 16:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74774)

Is Blake Blade ghost writing for Puplava?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmI swear, if the word "grasshoppers" were in this article, I would be convinced that Black Blade had written todays article.

Maybe he is a lurker here?

What next from Puplava, advice on stocking up on PMM's, cash, food stocks, and to get out of debt?

Pizz

(05/02/2002; 16:09:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74775)

R Powell - Educate me a bit

Illegal?

I don't trade futures, but I've bought and sold a few puts and calls on stocks and indexes, but why couldn't someone who was short futures LEGALLY buy out of the money calls as a hedge?.

thanking you in advance,

Pizz

mikal

(05/02/2002; 16:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74776)

@R. Powell

You ask "how leased metal repayment is settled if the metal is unattainable." It's been said the leasee companies or banks would default with full or partial payment coming from liquidation. That is, if the futures markets, either US or overseas, do not suspend or cease operations.

Pizz

(05/02/2002; 17:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74777)

Comment on Market Comments

I don't know how may listen to all the 'advisors' and 'analysts' comment on the markets during the day, but today is almost laughable.

Nearly all are coming across in total disbelief that the markets are not rallying. Where did these people get their credentials? Out of a Cherrios box? I'm surprised someone hasn't floated the idea that the markets since 911 are lagging indicators.

The reality of the fact that our government has been pumping the numbers and lying to us is about to set in. The PTB need something to blame real quick, their aren't any more rabbits in the hat.

911 delayed investment syndrome sounds pretty good to me. Maybe everyone who's losing money can apply for some sort of government aid. Gee, if we weren't suffering from this syndrome based upon 911, everyone would still be pumping money into the markets and we'd all be rich and retired.

Losing my objectivity over the circus. . . . . .

Pizz

R Powell

(05/02/2002; 17:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 74778)

Pizz

Pizz, indeed you can buy or sell futures contracts and/or options on the same to your heart's content. The intentional manipulation of market prices is what is considered illegal. The exchanges are self regulatory and the obvious question becomes when does a position become large enough to be considered manipulation?
In "Silver Bulls" Sarnoff explains that the Hunt brothers never (in his opinion) squeezed the silver market. The regulators saw a large long position from many sources (some from the Mid-East) and decided that there was a squeeze even though the Hunts agreed to forego adding to their sizeable position, agreed to roll over long positions further out in time away from the current (deliverable) or nearest contract month and even exchanged long contracts for physical from Mocatta (big short at the time). There never was an extraordinary call for delivery. However, the regulators protected the shorts who were the big boys at that point (all the small shorts had been forced out). They did this by increasing the margin requirements and finally ordering that only liquidation orders could be filled. This meant the only way to buy was from an existing long forced to sell. The bid-ask price was therefore always settled at the bid price and the price tanked to finally bottom at $11.70. What determines manipulation? Who makes the rules? I am a trader but physical ownership is, of course, safer that playing in the casino. The allure of the casino is the amount of potential fiat gain that can be held with a small margin but the game's rules seem subject to change by the "regulators" who are supposed to prevent manipulation.
In my opinion, small price moves in all commodities are "manipulated" almost all the time from the local floor traders trying to scalp a few bucks, through the computer activated trades and technically oriented trading programs which will trigger stops causing price movements (channels with support and resistence) and, of course, by the big known and unknown players.
Myself, I try to maneuver among these while buying and selling, selling and buying for small gains while desperately trying to always keep long positions rolling over into the future so that I'll be on board when the big move comes. I also hold physical silver (thanks CPM).
Like yourself, I'm a very small player but I enjoy the game!
Rich

R Powell

(05/02/2002; 18:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74779)

mikal

I tend to think that the reportedly 5000-15000 tonnes of leased gold can not be repaid from existing supply and will have to repaid slowly over time with many contracts rolled over numerous times. I believe the same situation exists in silver with an even smaller chance of being repaid with metal.
I fully agree with you that if the leases are called, many will have to be repaid with assets other than metal. I wonder what qualifications were originally required for leasing. Were T-bills or other collateral put up as assurance? How about gold leased on the condition that it be sold back to the bank that leased it with the further stipulation that the party that leased (and is now paying interest) can buy back the same gold in the future to then repay (in metal) the bank that originally leased. This provides capital for investment to the lessor and interest to the bank on gold that never moved from the vault. The physical gold is never at risk! Of course, much gold has been irretrieveable sold into the market to supply the ongoing supply/demand deficit. With physical default here, I'm sure the banks will grab anything of value they can attach. How can this not raise POG and POS!/?
Rich

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/02/2002; 18:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74780)

Reading the fundamentals.......... because they were there!

If we can remember back that far, the reason interest rates skyrocketed in the late '79, was because the FED had to borrow money on the open market competing for loans with businesses. It absorbed all the short term money supply and brought on a national business shutdown. And the same situation is setting up in coming months. Tax revenue is falling while national debt interest payments are coming due. This fact to me is like the busload of bureaocrats stopped on the railroad tracks to take pictures of America's last urban wilderness. The stock market seems to be trending flat. Individuals are sending in their money into mutual funds while insider selling is preventing the blue chips from rising. So we have seen gold and the DOW rise together, that doesn't really matter much. The serious inversives are:

1. British investment repatriation as they turn to the strenghtening Euro.

2. The US national debt "baby buy my bonds" impending crisis, with falling tax revenues.

3. When Sadam decides to do a cruise-by through the Gaza strip.

4. The Japanese banks collapse while their whole country looses its former business model with an export driven economy in saturated US markets.

The eventual outcome is that the strong dollar policy is being undermined by fundamentals. As Japan seeks to distance itself from the falling dollar, it will be calling out for an asian currency bloc as a "plan B". The deal is already foreknown.........."You want us to lay off the gold buying binge, well then give us the alternative we need to stabilize our region with.......and asian currency bloc."

As anything that developes in Asia the "bottom up method" is how processes begin having a weak central gov't, major corporations form mergers and begin swapping stock, trust builds, then the pressure is put on banks to do likewise. Finally last of all the politicians become the "explainers" of their "own new ideas" that the behind the scenes business leaders told them to say. In any school of fish you'll be hardpressed to find the leader, but all the fish know. The US will put pressure on Japan to selloff this imported gold. For the currency bloc, I think they'd do it. Japan needs to create a stable fiat currency so its people can stop buying gold to appease the US Fed. For the US to loose that chunk of the empire to another currency is better than to loose its whole reserve currency capabilities throughout the rest of the world due to a runaway gold price. However, I think iy would only delaay the foreboding event. We're on a big island from Maine to Georgia with a spoiled population that only cares about getting bread and a circus*, (spelled Nascar). I have to be a realist. We need to see the cards on the table. Japan would rather negotiate to release itself from the falling dollar problem but it has to make many friends in Asia before it can say goodbye to the US as protectorate. The US will say, "If you sell our dollars and bonds, we'll let piracy on the high seas eat your industries for lunch." So since Japan is afraid of China, and Taiwan is afraid of China and Japan, they can't dump the dollars so easily. They want our ships in their waters. They can only sell off bonds and dollars slowly and blame private investors. This is all my own spin from my chair that can spin and my mind that has spun. Looks like gold is going to bounce around 305-308 and slowly lift off into its own radical upswing. I expect doldrums until this gov't debt crisis hits like a baseball through the glass window. And/Or the day will arrive when Barrick and Placer formally announce an end to hedging. They are under pressure now to do this or their stock prices will drop. Feel free to correct or expand on any topic here.

I'd like to hear your comments about what Japan is going to do with failing banks. Good days in gold to all. -GR2

Canuck

(05/02/2002; 18:34:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74781)

@YGM

From yours:

"I still refuse to believe Silver will not again trade back at or near 1/20th multiple of Gold as it has done historicaly"

'Ballsy' call; isn't the silver bull/silver bear debate interesting? I refuse to make a call regarding silver. The bull camp touting that the silver hoard is gone. This sounds most bullish at first glance but let's examine the superhoard of the US many years ago, some 4 billion ounces.
What does it have now, none.

What does this mean?

Well I think it means that the government doesn't need silver anymore and it has sold it. In the barest of terms what does it need silver for, it doesn't need to make anything made of silver, does it??

Why would any government hoard silver? Why not just hold the already recognized metal reserve, gold? The US does not hold anymore silver, so what?

The photography thing bothers me too. Sure there is the debate of 'no silver impact' but who can really confirm the widely divergent numbers. When you walk into the retailers the fact remains that the proportion of camera merchandizing is slanting towards digital. It seems to me that the tradtional film camera's are increasing in price while the digitals are decreasing. Have you noticed this trend?

The other thing is the dealers, one was so bold to tell me that buy gold (insurance/wealth preservation, etc) but silver "will be used as a doorstop." That's from a guy trying to sell me silver. I asked him why, he said "silver has been completely de-monetized, gold is still money in the central banks view.....silver is used to make cheap jewellery and trinkets but gold is still stored in big bars in big vaults.."

The dishoarding of silver will end of course and silver will have a rebound, especially if people run wild in the early moments of mayhem but I don't think we are going to see the traditional 20:1 gold/silver ratio. I bought a significant pile of it after I had piled into gold during Y2K. My thinking was to have 50/50 gold/silver but in the last year I have gone back to gold. I hold (in dollar terms) about 60/40 now and will continue with gold from here on out.

I have a 'buy' on gold and a 'hold' on silver.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/02/2002; 19:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74782)

Silver and Gold futures patterns are totally different...........

The question of "How high can silver go?" Has its answer in the supply and demand equation. At what price do the holders of above ground supply begin selling into the rally to take profits? From our current charts it's like 50 cents. The slow rise up then a big selloff. I don't see a slow buildout rollup in price like in gold. The runaway in palladium from awhile back proves that a non-precious metal can take on precious metal characteristics as an investment medium when palladium is only an industrial metal and silver is an industrial metal with age-old sentimental superstitious ties to gold. Ratios of bygone eras in the US have little to do with the attitude of India and China which still have mega-tons of silver to sell. My question is AT WHAT PRICE will they sell. You assume silver is like a baby raccoon following gold wherever it goes for no reason. Nothing has to follow anything. It's more emotional (their ratio) and has nothing to do with logic, it DOES have alot to do with consumer electronics which aren't going away as long as we have electricity. Society is gadget crazy and that is the ace card of a silver bull.

sector

(05/02/2002; 19:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 74783)

@GR2...Japanese Banks

"Whjat will Japan Do About Its Banks?"Nationalize them.

En mass. Since they will not honor uninsured deposits, elderly Japanese [60s and 70s] holding more than $85,000 will lose their life savings...savaged for their frugality.

The pre-April 2003 proceeds from such a nationalization will provide at least $600 Billion in fresh funds to cover the $1.5 Trillion in aggregate bad loans.

If the government waits for April 2003 the move will be a single coup.

Unlike the US, the Japanese people have nothing to revolt with.

The revenge of the Ballots? The LDP will simply proffer yet another Koizumi-style puppet to speak platitudes.

The key element here is that portion of Japanese savers who have already guessed the government's strategy [No doubt with Robert Rubin's counsel] and are quietly moving to gold.

YGM

(05/02/2002; 19:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 74784)

Canuck...

Silver Wonderings.....(that we all share)Canuck, I pretty much agree w/ all you've said and like you hold only a % of AG. (25% in my case) But I do feel it will always be as good as Gold in terms of buying power, only of less value obviously. I try to keep in mind the old adage that money goes where money is. Now we have a few well known examples such as the Buffet hoard and others. But one of my strongest support feeling for Silver upswing is the fact that the Central Fund of Canada, with a major shareholder base of Bankers, Lawyers and other high end financial folks holds over 1.2 Million Oz (last time I looked) of Silver. I'm sure we could come up w/ other PM funds/Hoarders that hold similarly high volumes as well....
Probably I like yourself and others know at the very least if a total financial armageddon or an armed one ever comes about we can use it for Barter at worst.....It's the only way I have f being diversified outside the world of paper..
& BTW>> Thanks to all for entering my 25 cent silver rant :>)

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 19:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74785)

US will likely face 'major' natural gas supply problems

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142622
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 2 -- So far this year, US natural gas production is declining faster than first anticipated, said Raymond James & Associates Inc. in a recent report. And with this fall in gas supplies, gas prices are expected to creep higher later in the year, RJA said: "For the past 6 months, our mantra. . .has been that natural gas will be the key driver of US energy stocks and that lower US natural gas supply will drive gas prices higher."

RJA had considered its earlier expectations that US gas production would fall sequentially 1.5%/quarter during 2002 as "out on a limb," which would result in a 5-6% year-over-year decline in gas production by midsummer. "About a month ago, we were surprised by our preliminary first quarter [exploration and production company] production survey that suggested first quarter production may be down sequentially close to 2% and year-on-year down by 3%. In the past week, however, even that bullish estimate has been eclipsed by the actual production announcements from the E&P companies," RJA noted.

"We now have a statistically significant sampling of US E&P companies that tells us that not only is US gas production falling, but it is falling faster than even our bullish projections," the analyst said. ". . .E&P companies are reporting first quarter 2002 production down 2.9% from the fourth quarter of 2001 and down 6.7% on a year-over-year basis."

RJA noted that while totals will likely change over the next few weeks as more production reports trickle in from other E&P companies, ". . . [I]t is becoming clear that the US is facing a major natural gas supply problem that is likely to lead to higher gas prices over the summer and a potential gas price explosion next winter."

Black Blade: As I have said, we are being set up for a severe energy crisis. I think that it more likely that supply problems will surface this coming winter, however, these analysts think that the supply crunch will come sooner. Drill rig rates have fallen off a cliff and there is very little replacement of reserves. Higher energy costs will hit consumers and corporations very hard. In short � scratch one US "economic Recovery" this year.

USAGOLD

(05/02/2002; 19:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74786)

Canuck, Anduril, Solomon, Hoople, et al

Go back and check the history of silver. Anyone here know the circumstances behind Bryan's Cross of Gold speech? Anyone here know who was one of Bryan's biggest financial supporters (if not his biggest financial supporter)? That was a long time ago, but this analysis addresses the circumstances of Nature that affected the price of silver then and still address it now. By the way, I had a client come into the office to buy some gold at the beginning of my career who remembered seeing Baby Doe Tabor from the window of Denver's Brown Palace Hotel peddling her bike down 17th Street. She was wearing newspaper for clothes. Ten years earlier at her mansion on Capitol Hill, she played hostess to the grandest parties ever seen in Denver -- then and now. By the time she was seen peddling down the 17th Street, her husband, Horace Tabor -- the Silver King -- had gone from rags to riches and back to rags again.

I am not worried about silver from an "investment" point of view, because an argument could be built for it. (I once owned a silver mine -- and a rich one, alas geologically but not financially.) Just like I do not worry about copper from an investment point of view. However, I do have a problem with those who think that silver is somehow a substitute for gold, just like I have a problem with the philosophy that owning a piece of paper that represents a mining company is somehow a proxy for the real thing. Neither are. There is no substitute for gold. Someday, even those who promote the proxies will come to understand the difference -- if they haven't already. There is a place for each, but we shouldn't confuse what each means to the investor.

By the way, I believe the classical definition for "money" encompasses the combination of form and function.

Multiple Choice:

Money is
a) a medium of exchange
b) a store of value
c) a unit of account
d) all the above

Hint: In the modern era, none of the things we call "money" encompass the definition -- not the dollar, not gold, not silver. Interestingly, gold and silver coinage came about because in ancient times only the government (the king) as a disinterested third party could be trusted to act as arbiter in its issuance. Money had to do with weight and purity. Now, because the government cannot be trusted to issue money, savers are forced to purchase gold at weight and purity as a portfolio insurance.

The wheel of history turns. . . . .

YGM

(05/02/2002; 19:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74787)

Google Search....Silver Hoards.....1-10 of 8,360 Items found in .11 sec

http://www.google.ca/search?q=Silver+Hoards&btnG=Google+Search&hl=enJeeeez! Black Blades Viking Ancestors are everywhere here on the first page :>)

Off to read & dream of the Viking plunders for a bit....

YGM

(05/02/2002; 19:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74788)

Blackbeards Treasure...."In Pennsilvania".................OK!

http://www.sru.edu/depts/library/imc/FolkTales/black.htmSpanish silver buried in Emporium, Pennsylvania! Several tons of silver bars from a sunken Spanish galleon were recovered by a Captain Blackbeard (not the notorious pirate, Edward Teach) who hoped to transfer the silver to a British ship at Baltimore. Fearful that others would follow the ship to seize the treasure, it was secretly loaded into six carts and sent overland to reach a friendlier Canadian port. The War of 1812 broke out while the silver was en route and Captain Blackbeard decided to bury the silver in the mountains past Emporium. He left a guard, Colonel Noah Parker, who built a castle in the area and kept the curious away. Blackbeard died before he recovered the silver and legend has it that the silver is still there.

**Hey this (Silver Hoard)is becoming the most interesting search engine find in a long while :>))

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 19:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74789)

Scandals shred investors' faith

http://www.usatoday.com/money/general/2002/05/02/trust.htm
Snippit:

Fired Andersen auditor David Duncan pleaded guilty in April to obstruction charges. The Enron and Andersen scandals are helping erode investors' trust in companies. A drumbeat of corporate misdeeds has helped crush stock prices and eviscerate pension plans. But the biggest victim may be trust � investors' trust in financial advisers, stock analysts and Corporate America. During the bull market, corporations and those who ran them seemingly could do no wrong. Now they're feeling the backlash, in the form of congressional hearings, bankruptcy trials and investor outrage.

Trust keeps the financial system together. Once lost, it can take years for Wall Street to regain it. Signs of how badly trust has eroded are everywhere. Investors are starting to give up on the stock market and are plowing money into their homes instead. And Congress is warming up to write new business regulations. Unless Corporate America moves quickly to regain public confidence, Wall Street could languish for years.

Black Blade: Unfortunately most CEOs, executives, and boards of directors only care about getting ungodly amounts of compensation, fat bonuses, diluting shares, hiring friends, and looting the very companies that they serve for personal gain. Enron, Qwest, Global Crossing, Barrick, Worldcom, Arthur Andersen, etc. are only the beginning. If you choose to play the market, be extremely careful � there are a lot of criminals (wolves in sheep's clothing) out there.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/02/2002; 20:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74790)

Behind the scene in OZ there were only children.

In 1994 I was in Japan and I went into a bank in Osaka to max out a credit card to convert it to Yen as it was ready to rise against the dolar. I saw with my own eyes about 40-50 "kids" like 20-28 in the bank shuffling through index card inventory files with filing cabnets all over the office. Everyone dressed so fine without a computer anywhere. I couldn't believe what I saw. This was 1950 in the twilight zone of finance. It was easy to see how bank loan policy had no way to see the big picture from a protracted view. There were hardly any older people in the whole bank. I never saw such a mess of opened file cabnets and index card files in my life, with stacks of papers everywhere right in plain view of the public counter. Talk about having a lack of ability to assimilate information? no don't talk about it, investorsan. We have money good invested in company alot!

USAGOLD

(05/02/2002; 20:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74791)

Black Blade. . .

Thanks for "Scandals Shred Investors' Faith."

Have a real life story for you as part of today's business which supports your advice. . .

Had an individual call who had a retirement plan. . .I say "had" because now most of it has evaporated. Had the plan at one major brokerage which burned a chunk of it, so he moved it to another major broker where another chunk of it disappeared. Now he says he's going to gold where he understands what he's got. The conversation concluded with a lament we hear often at USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals: " I wish I would have had the wisdom to move it into gold sooner." If you go by market valuations, we still have substantial downside potential on the stocks of many of the top companies. Real market pros like Richard Russell keep telling us this, but so many stay in the stock market despite the losses and abuses. They believe that the "market's coming back" when history tells us that a bear market can last ten to fifteen years. The fact of the matter is that it's far from late in the game as far as gold is concerned. We are doing a very active business in gold retirment plans and I suggest that if anyone's thinking along these lines to contact George Cooper at our offices. He does a lot of this. And those who have made the move are looking alot better now in a Gold IRA than they would have been if they left it in stocks or money markets.

Trapper

(05/02/2002; 20:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74792)

To silver or not to Silver

I have an idea that the next big industrial use for silver will no doubt be super conducting. With in next energy blow up it should get some real usage. I'm not sure about the old 16 to 1 ratio as I am about the public going nuts once the whole PM market comes to life. I bought and sold in the 70s and 80s and the higher the price the hotter the action. Silver is also a small market it won't take much pressure to move it up. I'm also not so sure China has all that much to sell. I don't belive there is any real info as it is still a state secret as what is mined and held. But just ask anyone over say 35 if a pre 1964 dimes has any exta value...yep most still belive silver IS money. Live small.
RJ

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 20:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74793)

April pink slips up 10%: Challenger

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B90D8F74A%2D5B50%2D43C1%2D8EF9%2DE333BA209726%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - Announcements of job cuts by major corporations rose about 10 percent in April to 112,649, according to a monthly survey by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Black Blade: And so it goes, the "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 20:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74794)

Treasury Running Out Of Room to Tap Funds - Bill Come Due On June 28!!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17885-2002May1.htmlU.S. Could Face Debt Crunch on June 28

Snippit:

Faced with a plunge in tax receipts, the Bush administration will run out of ways to maneuver around the federal debt ceiling and could default on payments to bondholders on June 28, sooner than previously expected, a senior Treasury official said yesterday.

On that date, the government must make more than $60 billion in semiannual interest payments to trust funds, primarily Social Security. While that is a paper transaction, consisting of new bonds, it counts against the government's $5.95 trillion debt limit. Officials said the Treasury plans to start using a variety of budget tricks later this month to keep the government below the debt limit, but they will not be enough to prevent default on June 28 if Congress does not raise the limit.

"The end of June is really the end of the party. There isn't anything past that," Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher said in an interview yesterday. "It is necessary that Congress do this before the end of June. We expect they are going to do it before the end of June. They need to do it before the end of June."

Black Blade: "Crunch Time" as they say. Raise the debt ceiling or be in default. Can anyone say "Argentina"? I knew you could.

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 20:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74795)

Re: MK � Scandals and IRA's

It gets even worse. Some company pension plans can legally be raided by the corporation to meet debt payments. This usually does not happen unless the company is in deep financial trouble. Obviously the employees get badly burned. Unfortunately most 401K type plans don't have a Gold investment option. However, additional contributions to a traditional or Roth IRA can be made by most everyone. The amount that can be contributed rises to $3000.00 this year and up to $3500.00 for those over 50 years (I think it's over 50) for the "catch up" option � rising $500.00 each additional year (starting this year) to a maximum of
$5000.00. If you have an SEP (as I do) or another self-employment 401K the amount that can be contributed is considerably greater.

The news of scandals and government chicanery is running rampant these days. It appears that things are not getting any better either. When the next energy crisis hits we will see Gold strongly outperform as we have seen it do before. Meanwhile most all other investments will collapse.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 21:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74796)

Insider sell ratio tells investors to 'stay clear'

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20020502/96879.html
Snippit:

Company insiders have recently started betting against a near-term rebound in North American technology stocks, selling down stakes in their own companies, new research shows.

Black Blade: If corporate insiders won't buy their own stock � should you?

Black Blade

(05/02/2002; 21:21:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74797)

The Wildcatters Wildcard

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hastings4.htmAdversaries of the Economy, Then and Now

Snippit:

We are witness to a memorable turning point in the domestic economy. It not only continues its positive momentum but it also renews its resistance against strengthening, contrary developments. The voices representing the economy's threats seem also to gather in number, with more articles than ever published about the coming crash in the housing markets, consumer debts, and corporate defaults.

The housing market's crucial role in the overall economy is getting much attention. The housing market has replaced the stock market as the central force in a new version of The Wealth Effect. Unlike the stock market, however, the housing market involves many tangible parts of the economy such as construction and raw materials, and it has enormous, lasting influence upon consumption. For these reasons among others, the housing market is the single most important market to watch going into the second half of the year. It seems many others think so.

Black Blade: An interesting article on the housing bubble, oil, and various wildcards that can wreck havoc on the economy.

shelllus

(05/02/2002; 21:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 74798)

R POWELL/ PIZZ--TACTIC FOR TRAPPED SHORTS

I HAVE WONDERED IF THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING GOLD STOCKS TO HEDGE THEIR BULLION SHORTS--NOT AS BRILLIANT AS YOUE IDEA, BUT SHOULD WORK
AND IF THEY ARE POWERFUL ENUF MAYBE THE CAN GET THE RULES CHANGED--AS DID THE CBOT DID BEFORE THE HUNTS 'SILVER CORNER' RUINED THEM

goldquest

(05/02/2002; 21:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74799)

This is how they did it before.

http://www.enteract.com/~mgfree/Economics/goldHistory.htmlCould it happen again? Maybe, but not without a new revolution.

The Hoople

(05/02/2002; 22:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74800)

MK, proxies

I don't confuse silver for a gold proxie, however it still seems more of a store of wealth than anything printed on paper including mining stocks. If you want gamble in fiat (I don't) that's fine, you just have to always be aware that nearly all paper is in essence a derivative. Gold stocks are basically that too: they derive their value from the gold that lays mostly underground. When I hear people decry derivatives I wonder how many actually realize even the FRN's in their wallet are little different. They can lose 50-100% of their value in a fortnight. They derive their value from a Federal Reserve deperately trying to convince us they somehow have worth. I guess being long dollars is saying you are bullish on bankrupt,indebted,leveraged government. My early life was spent growing up hearing depression era stories. I learned to always have not only plan A but plan B and C. It serves me well in business and I view silver as my plan B. Plan C involves off-topic subjects that pertain to survival. I would always advise people to focus on gold for wealth preservation. I would never advise anything printed on paper.

LeSin

(05/03/2002; 00:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74801)

Gold Paper "Discounted" just like Cohen's Lamb Chops

A woman goes to her butcher Feinberg and asks the price of lamb chops.
"$2.50 a pound," he tells her.
"But Cohen across the street sells them for $2.00 a pound," she protests.
"Nu, so go buy from Cohen," says the butcher.
"He's all out," she explains.
"Oh," says Feinberg, "when I'm out of lamb chops they're only $1.50 a pound."

When I was a student in California during the 1960s a Hollywood Khosher Deli Owner told me the above joke.
Some how with regard to Gold it is not a joke.

Cheers "S"

Spartacus

(05/03/2002; 00:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74802)

Pressure on dollar forces O'Neill to speak in riddles

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3BO400R0D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
The US may be the most powerful nation in the world, but on the subject of one of the biggest threats to its economy its has almost no voice.

The critical issue of the value of the dollar has forced Paul O'Neill, US treasury secretary, to speak in riddles.
------
The result has been a confused signal. The message emerging from Mr O'Neill has been that the strong dollar policy remains in place. But he has not opposed the recent fall in the value of the dollar, stating that the market should be left to decide the currency's level.
-----
Causing the dollar to weaken at the moment would be particularly easy, given the vulnerability of US asset markets, analysts argue.

The problem would be controlling the speed. A gentle fall in the dollar would be viewed as a blessing for the US by most economists. With consumer spending and corporate investment likely to be held back by debts accumulated over the past few years, a gentle kick to US exports would thus provide a welcome fillip to the faltering recovery.

A sharp fall in the dollar, by contrast, would probably be extremely disruptive for US financial markets, and would risk provoking an exodus of foreign investors from the US market.

This is considered a growing threat by many currency strategists.

The current account deficit, which is running at about 4 per cent of gross domestic product, means that the US needs to attract a net $1.5bn (�1.04bn) in foreign inflows every day to prevent the dollar from falling. But with US equities underperforming the eurozone and Japanese markets, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract investment.

"Even though Mr O'Neill seems aware that the strong dollar policy does not mean very much, he is forced to keep intoning it," says Ray Attrill, director of research at the economic consultancy 4Cast.

"Any change of rhetoric could trigger waves of selling of US assets in the current environment."

Usul

(05/03/2002; 00:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74803)

Xerox drops after debt is cut from junk to crap

http://www.nypost.com/business/42217.htmOnce again the problems of loading up on debt, possibly as a result of the rosy euphoria of a (now fading) mega-bull market in stocks, and an easy money policy from Greeny, are highlighted. Here and there, potential risks in bonds are materialised, and as they do so, interest rates pop up out of the general bond population like tent-poles.

Picture this: A Xerox machine, its LCD display flashing "Out of funding! Please re-fill!" But the funding supplier has the Xerox machine's owner on hold for non-payment of bills.

Spartacus

(05/03/2002; 00:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74804)

Duisenberg says US c/a deficit unsustainable over time, risk to world economy

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_580250.html?menu=business.economy
European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg said the growing current account deficit of the US poses a risk to the world economy.

"I hope it can be contained in due time, because over time I regard it as unsustainable," said Duisenberg speaking at the ECB's regular news conference.

Usul

(05/03/2002; 00:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74805)

Argentinian Tears

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24332-2002May2.htmlGrowing Crisis Leaves Argentines Feeling Helpless

"Argentina's problems are legion -- and, many say, date back to decades of poor leadership and overdependence on the government. Officials here contend the current crisis, however, stems from the nation's corruption-filled transition to a free-market economy in the 1990s, a time when the nation became reliant on massive International Monetary Fund loans and government bond sales to finance overspending"

IMF teats and a dogmatic institution of a "free market" are not a panacea. Once again we see the result of application of formulaic "solutions" without wisdom leading to disaster.

Usul

(05/03/2002; 01:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 74806)

The future fuel crisis?

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/gas_2_000913.html"A line of red London buses are parked unable to move, after trucks blocked the streets around Hyde Park in central London on Wednesday, as the fuel crisis which is gripping Britain continued..."

The army has deployed 80 fuel tankers loaded with reserve fuel at strategic locations across the U.K., a Defense Ministry spokesman said today. The tankers were on standby in case Downing Street required them to distribute fuel for essential services..."

This is not fiction- it really happened just 2 years ago, from relatively small price rises with no actual shortage of supply. Was it the result of genuine protests, or could it have been a "trial run" to test systems and highlight what measures would be needed in the event of worse crises to come, as the Hubbert peak timeline advances? Casting conspiracy theories aside, complex systems and even human relationships often give us advance warnings in the form of seemingly minor upsets ahead of time. Those who understand these warnings and take sensible precautionary measures ahead of time are wise.

There is no shame in taking precautionary measures against a risk even if the anticipated crisis does not happen- that is the nature of risk. Why not have at least a percentage of your assets in a risk-resistant form such as gold?

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 01:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74807)

Malaysia sees small group first in gold dinar trade

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nklr213674.html
Snippit:

KUALA LUMPUR, May 1 (Reuters) - Malaysia said on Tuesday it planned to initially use the gold dinar as a currency for trading with a small group of countries, in the hope it would slowly gain international acceptance. Some Islamic countries have proposed using the dinar, which is a gold-backed standard, in international trade instead of the U.S. dollar.

"We are trying to work it out with three or four countries that we have close ties with," said Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who proposed the system last month to reduce the risk of speculation in bilateral trading. "The Arab and Gulf states...maybe they'll accept it," Mahathir told reporters after attending a Labour Day function. The prime minister, who recently visited Libya, Bahrain and Morocco, said the three countries had responded enthusiastically to the plan.

Black Blade: The Gold standard to return? There is a move to bring about the Gold Dianr and Silver Dirham in Dubai to be used as currency as well. Time will tell.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 01:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74808)

Leading gold miners cut hedge books

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nl2542803.html
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - Gold miners are racing to ditch their hedge books in a move to take advantage of rising prices for the precious metal, which last week hit its highest in more than two years.

Following is a profile of the intentions of leading miners to reduce the amount of gold sold into forward markets.

N.AMERICA

NEWMONT

World's largest gold producer Newmont Mining Corp has vowed not to hedge a single ounce of its output to take advantage of higher spot prices. But in acquiring Australia's Normandy Mining it now carries hedges on some eight million ounces of future production.

BARRICK GOLD

World number two gold producer Barrick Gold Corp says it will not increase its gold forward sales programme but will put more emphasis on spot sales. Barrick said last month it will sell half its gold output this year at a minimum price of $365 an ounce, with the balance to be sold on the spot market.

The company's hedge book at December 31 included 18.2 million ounces in spot deferred contracts, or 22 percent of reserves. Barrick began hedging 14 years ago when the market allowed producers to lock in higher prices and lower risk by borrowing gold from central banks, which gave it liquidity assurances during a capital intensive time.

PLACER DOME

Close to three years of its annual output of around 2.5 million ounces of gold is estimated to be hedged, according to analysts. Placer has said it will reduce its hedges to under 50 percent of output.

The company said its hedge programme has realised a $65 per ounce premium over a gold spot price of $290, and as of the end of the first quarter this year mark-to-market value of the programme was $235 million at a closing gold price of $303.

SOUTH AFRICA

ANGLOGOLD .

South Africa's biggest miner has cut its open hedge book by 1.7 million ounces to 12.9 million ounces in the first three months of this year. Its hedge book was reduced by another 643,000 ounces by the end of April.

Anglogold had 106,897 kg of gold sold locked in forward prices ranging from 89,939 rand/kg in 2003 to 163,895 rand/kg in December 2011. The rand gold price is currently over 100,000 rand/kg. The group had eliminated the low-price rand gold forward contracts for the rest of 2002.

GOLDFIELDS

South African miner unhedged to gold price. The firm has repurchased the 420,000 ounce hedge position resulting from its new Damang mine in Ghana.

HARMONY

Is unhedged but will deliver production into its newly inherited hedge books from Australian acquisitions New Hampton

(510,000 ounces) and Hill 50 (1.35 million ounces).

DURBAN DEEP

Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) has spent $5.6 million to reduce its hedgebook to below 400,000 ounces as of the end of March and aims to close it by July 1.

AUSTRALIA

Gold hedging by Austrlian miners fell nearly eight percent in the December quarter, according to the Australian Gold Council.

AURION

Australia's newly formed Aurion Gold Ltd plans to reduce hedge exposure in both reserves and annual production over the next five years to gain wider exposure to a rising gold price.

Asutralia's NEWCREST MINING and WMC Ltd have also reduced their hedges.

LIHIR

Papua New Guinea miner Lihir Gold Ltd said last month it would continue to hedge up to a third of its annual mine output of around 648,000 ounces.

OTHER AFRICA

ASHANTI .

Ashanti Goldfields Co Ltd last month agreed interim deals on margin-free hedge trading with all its active counterparties as it restructures its debts.

The company said in a statement that Barclays Plc had reached agreement with Credit Suisse First Boston to take over its Ashanti hedges, and that agreements had been reached with all the miner's active counterparties.

Ashanti in 1999 sustained due to heavy hedging losses when a sharp rise in prices left it holding huge losses on short positions in the forward market.

Black Blade: Only insecure losers sell forward their production. Note that the hedgers have lagged the Gold Bull Market. As a general rule - The lower the hedge position the better the share price performance.

Belgian

(05/03/2002; 01:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74809)

Euroland

Wim Duisenberg (ECB) : ...The US trade deficit is a serious threath to global *Stability* !!!...
The French Le Pen syndrome with call for euro-sortie for french franc...is not on any EMU agenda and is radically out of the question !!!...
Wim is talking and acting firm and confidently !

Next to the unresolved US/WORLD steel dispute, US massive subsidies to domestic agriculture is in sharp contrast with serious efforts (+ results) in Euroland to do exactly the opposite at home !
Add the massive and prolonged confetti-feed to the US war-industry...and make your own conclusions about the differences in currency (dollar/euro) managements.

A major Belgian bank (small in global terms) stopped with its tradition of *silver* and *platina* sales ( Physical ) (to clients)! Nothing changed for Gold ! VAT on silver/platina/other remains 21% and zero % for Physical Gold ! What better evidence can you find for making the difference between "industrial" or "monetary" metal(s) !!!
If there is such a tremendous unbalance in the silver-world...why isn't this metal acting as palladium did ? Don't shoot your humble pianoplayer,please. Thanks.

Usul

(05/03/2002; 01:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74810)

Home loan rates rise

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020502/financial_mortgages_bestrates_1.htmlAs the scattered tent poles of isolated (yield)=(risk reward) spikes pop up, they start to lift the general fabric.

Thanks to Mrw on Kitco for spotting this link.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 01:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74811)

Barbarous Relic Files - Huge quantity of gold, silver seized

http://in.news.yahoo.com/020503/54/1n6ik.html
Snippit:

Chennai, May 2: The Tamil Nadu police seized 38 kg of silver ornaments, Rs 4 lakh worth of gold jewels and Rs 13 lakh in cash following the arrest of two persons yesterday, Director General of Police B P Nailwal said today. The seizure could lead to the recovery of more gold and silver jewellery, he added.

Displaying the ornaments and cash, the DGP said the arrests and seizures were effected by the special teams formed following the alarming number of burglaries in isolated jewellery shops in Chengalpattu East district from November last.

Stating that four more persons wanted in connection with the robberies were absconding, he said the 38 kg of silver ornaments and the cash were recovered from the arrested persons while the gold jewellery was seized from a receiver. Interrogation of the arrested revealed that they had stolen 8.25 kg of gold jewellery and 75.5 kg of silver totally valued at Rs 40 lakh, he added.

Black Blade: What a waste of time � burglarizing all those shops and only finding barbarous relics. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 02:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74812)

Spot Getting A Little Frisky Tonight

http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is moving higher along with other PMs and Petroleum. Earlier CNBC had a guest on that said Gold and Oil are not good - therefore the only conclusion was that they are losing their grip ;-)

The unemployment rate of first time claims is still far above the recessionary level of 400,000. The unemployment data for last month comes out in a few hours. Also, Sec. O'neill hinted that the Treasury will not interfere to keep the USD stronger against other world currencies. The USD has weakened as is expected to continue to weaken. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 04:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74813)

Energy Leaders to Meet Privately

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020503/energy_summit_1.html
Snippit:

DETROIT (AP) -- Energy ministers from the Group of Eight nations plan to discuss the need for a stable, secure and environmentally friendly energy supply during the second day of an energy summit.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told delegates Thursday that the world's energy challenges will become more acute over the next 20 years as countries face increased demand and try to balance energy growth with environmental protection. All eight countries face similar energy challenges, including demand, growth and inadequate infrastructure for future needs, Abraham said during a luncheon policy address.

In the United States alone, it's estimated that by 2020, oil consumption will increase by 33 percent, natural gas consumption by more than 50 percent and electricity demand by 45 percent, Abraham said. The infrastructure to handle the increased use doesn't exist, he said. For example, to accommodate the projected increase in electricity demand, more than one power plant per week will have to be built, he said.

Abraham also said that over the next two decades, world oil consumption is projected to increase from about 75 million barrels per day in 1999 to roughly 120 million barrels per day in 2020.

Black Blade: The key point here is that the infrastructure does not exist for expanding production and delivery of energy. Rabid environmentalism and their political influence guarantees that we are headed into a severe energy crisis of epic proportions. The end result is the collapse of most modern economies (except perhaps the most primitive agrarian economies). As always get prepared, get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started.

Spartacus

(05/03/2002; 04:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74814)

Three Cheers for a Weak US Dollar

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020501-wed.html#anchor0
---As the US dollar becomes more unloved with each passing day, investors are growing increasingly nervous about a dollar correction or worse still, a dollar collapse. The main fear is that a steep and sudden depreciation of the greenback could trigger a rush to the exits among foreign investors in US securities and precipitate a spike in US interest rates and a swoon in US financial markets.

We don't buy this doomsday scenario and are predisposed toward the call of our currency strategists. They envision an orderly, broad-based decline in the dollar over the medium term (two to three years), a forecast that nevertheless gives clients the shivers. Recognizing the risks associated with a weak currency, we think market participants are too focused on the negative implications of a weaker dollar. ---

Spartacus: A modest devaluation would be good for America, but then again will it be a mild dollar correction?

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 05:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74815)

U.S. layoff plans rose in April

http://www.msnbc.com/news/746731.asp?0si=-

Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 2 � Layoff announcements at U.S. firms bounced back up in April after a drop in March in a sign that the recovering economy could take some time to gather steam, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Thursday.

Black Blade: There is a growing consensus among corporate CEOs (if CEOs such as Jack Welch, Wayne Huizenga and other guests on CNBC are to be believed) that the unemployment picture will get worse in face of growing layoff announcements, excess capacity, decreased capital expenditures and growing inventories.

RobotGuy

(05/03/2002; 05:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74816)

I know it's around here somewhere.

Charts and graphs would indicate to mine own inexperienced eye that we are on the brink of major shifting. Perhaps Friday is a good day for indecisiveness. DOW will fail in a big way very soon. Of course I don't have my license in cheerleading, so you don't need to take my word for it. Average investor? Getting tired of everyone else doing the profit taking?
I don't know what's going to cause the big dip, but I'll bet my holey t-shirt we're going to see a big dip real soon. Yesterday I wrote "Prepare DOW, Elliot wave theory is upon you," well, it didn't happen yesterday, so you know how much you can trust my ideas.

Have a marvelous day all!!

RobotGuy.

Lamprey

(05/03/2002; 06:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74817)

Unwinding Hedgebooks

I've noticed that many of the hedged gold producers are closing out their hedge positions by "delivering into our hedge book"...

That tells me that whoever is on the receiving end of the forward sale (the buyer) is still getting quite a bargain in price. I'm not seeing much talk about closing out hedge positions by cash purchases (Durban Deep's plans not withstanding).

So, can we conclude that the lack of new forward sales is partly responsible for slowly driving the gold price higher and we won't see a true breakout in prices until a critical mass of these forward sales are "delivered into", thus forcing buyers to pay current market prices for future gold sales?

Golden Bear

(05/03/2002; 06:37:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74818)

Abbey Jo on CNBC after yesterday's close

Amusing quote by Abbey that GS has always used GAAP based analysis to arrive at their forecasts for stocks and the major indices - yeah right!

Her predictions for the major market averages have been ridiculously high for the last 2 years, and still going lower.

Pro forma earnings? What pro forma earnings? Just like the recession that never happened...

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 06:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74819)

Unemployment Soars to 6%

Unemployment jumped higher by 43,000. That is 6% from 5.7% and it will get worse. Unemployment announcements are rising sharply. This is confirmation of a deepening recession � in spite of CNBC drone Larry Kudlow's assertions that "all is well", the unemployed are just lazy bums and that the benefits extension was a fool hardy move by Congress. The "Bone Pile" is growing! In a word "GRIM".

- Black Blade

Golden Bear

(05/03/2002; 06:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74820)

RobotGuy (msg#: 74816) I know it's around here somewhere.

It's almost there, S&P needs to go to 1100-1110 before she turns and heads lower, some time next week... the old gal had to take a breather before slaughtering the next lot of sheeple.

Cheers.

miner49er

(05/03/2002; 06:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74821)

Trade Settlement in Malaysia - Old Wine in New Wineskins...?

http://www.nst.com.my/z//Current_News/BT/Wednesday/Business/20020327025311(Note - I put this together actually back on March 31st, but frankly forgot about it... So I've dusted it off a bit, and decided to throw it out now, for any who care to read it. ALSO -- the link is no longer valid, unless you can search their archives, but you can find a number of snips from these articles back around this time on the forum archives, if anyone finds the need.)

The other day there was some discussion regarding Malaysia's plans to institute a gold payment mechanism to manage settlement in its international trade. The discussion arose out of an interview with Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia as reported by several news organizations.

I admire Dr. Mahathir, as he demonstrates again his willingness to adhere to convictions and principle, even in the face of enormous pressure from the Beast. Although castigated in 1997 for his stance restricting speculative currency movements, his country withstood much of the ravages of the tsunamic lava flows of "hot money" that laid waste the financial landscape of his neighbors.

Looking over the information provided in news accounts of this interview, I saw some things that raised a few questions, though. Dr. Mahathir envisions the use of the Islamic gold dinar to be the means of account settlement in trade between countries. He highlights the general plan of how the gold exchanges would take place. Using a two country example to simplify the illustration, the trade balances of each country are calculated using their respective local currencies, and are then priced in gold, which is employed as payment. It is also used as the medium to conduct these exchanges. In order to reduce the physical movement of gold, these balances wash each other out, so only the amounts in surplus or deficit are exchanged. (Essentially, convert and net...) To further eliminate unnecessary movement, credits or debits can be applied to these imbalances. The assumption here that Dr. Mahathir makes is that the price of gold is reasonably stable. “Its value [gold] may appreciate or depreciate according to the world’s demand and the demand in a given country. But the fluctuation would be minimal,” he said.

Malaysia seems to want to restore gold to its historic prominence, but risks conducting affairs according to the old ways of doing business. They evidently do not wish to fix the price of gold, yet pursuing this course of action, it seems, will make this nearly unavoidable. I would like to analyze this situation in terms of the discussion of money for which we began laying a groundwork the other day [#71878].

A quick review... Money is defined as that means, which takes an individual's inarticulate, and unquantifiable appraisals of things, and translates them into commonly understood terms, so that the individual and others inside this universe of commerce can fluently dialogue about their prices. The currency of the realm is any mechanism that satisfactorily expresses, and transmits, these monetary evaluations. Its primary purpose is to facilitate commercial/financial exchange. Chief properties of the currency must be 1) its ability to dynamically adjust to changes in society's appraisals of these things; and 2) its ability to predictably suspend the considered value held by the parties of any given exchange for the duration of the transaction.

In the past, this was attempted by pegging the currency to a fixed gold ratio (or some derivative of this function). The emerging paradigm seems to want to let currencies discover their value through a truly free exchange ratio to any and all commodities, paramount of which is gold. As we discussed previously, our legacy of commodity-backed currency causes us to confuse the currency instrument with the real wealth denominated by it. This is why we can lend something that has no intrinsic worth, or anything backing it that does, claim it to have stable value, and do it with a straight face. Effectively, our "money" today is nothing more than an irredeemable, you-must-use-it credit claim. And callable, too.

First gold, then gold certificates, gold notes, then contracts for gold not yet born. Then default. We have spiralled so long and far down this vicious vortex, that the intolerable systemic default of the current quasi-gold standard is imminent. Not only will the powers, that exist by virtue of this precarious structure, fight to the death to keep it intact, the more astute among them also recognize the serious threats to U.S. national security (and by extension, global stability) from the instability such a collapse would incite -- especially in this day.

Therefore, the show must go on. This is the inevitable, inescapable result of a system that pegs its currency to a commodity in order to give it worth. The intent may originally be to enhance its currency property of temporarily sustaining value for its immediate transactional use. This quickly gives way, however, to the impression of lasting value being stored in the currency, which then causes it to be perceived as a real asset in the minds of lenders and borrowers alike. This is what ultimately breaks the system. Currency is not meant to be construed as a long term value store. To the degree that it does or should have non-monetary worth, is only to the extent that this property is necessary to make commercial transactions easier for that particular economy. It should contribute to the medium's ability to adequately convey the monetary appraisals held by its users. Otherwise these monetary appraisals end up becoming distorted, and inflexible, as those forces take over, whose interest it is to control the medium's monetary use, by manipulating its non-monetary value. Once currency is wrested from its natural role of expressing fluid monetary processes, and becomes bound in contracts of fixed convertibility, it no longer serves to represent dynamic value concepts, but fixed and arbitrary value illusions instead.

Thus gold in the Malaysia plan (if it works as described in these [very] summary accounts) is set up for a fall. I want to point out that their plan may actually work differently, but owing to the likelihood that the editors undoubtedly perceive things through traditional understanding, they may well have reported the whole affair with the wrong slant. That said, we'll approach our analysis with what we're given.

In the first place, it fails its exchange facilitator role right out of the gate, with concerns about gold's physical movement. The purpose of these account credits and debits, according to the article, is to further diminish the costly transportation of gold. It is obviously inefficient if one designs a process in which gold is to be a vehicle for account settlement, and then has measures put in place before the fact to accommodate transactional obstacles brought about by inherent attributes of the medium.

Additionally, in mandating settlement in gold, we instantly introduce the prospect of default. By permitting credits or debits to be applied against balances ("...the surplus or deficit can be credited or debited against future imports and exports."), it seems we only perpetuate the present dilemma. If the trading partner is gold-poor, then deficits on the part of this country must be met with a gold debt, whose purpose is not for some administrative benefit of efficiency, but genuinely a need for more time to make good. If the gold price fluctuates significantly, and moreover obtains a new, higher plateau, this only exacerbates the situation of the gold debtor. Simply, an agreement that mandates payment with physical delivery fosters an environment of defaults and non-performance, and invites efforts to keep the price down.

Other considerations... Say I run a deficit to you one month, and you agree to let me make up the balance later -- ostensibly for the above-mentioned administrative purposes of reducing gold movement. I compensate you for the delay either with interest payable, or a fee. I do indeed, currently have the gold, but find our negotiated settlement to be more cost effective than the costs of moving the metal itself. Now if the gold price remains stable, or moves in a creditor-friendly direction, then it won't be long before you prefer to just hold onto this paper, as it is effectively stronger than gold, so long as confidence in its convertibility is maintained. It won't be long before this "good as gold" paper is traded, speculated upon, hedged, lent against and lent itself. Then in order to help our speculations, or rescue our over-extensions of credit, assistance will be provided to make sure the gold price doesn't "get out of hand," and we will all agree that it is better for us to manage the indiscriminate volatility of the markets, so as to promote overall stability. Thus we are back once again to fixing (or "managing") the gold price.

Let's look at this yet another way. It appears that transactions will take place in the local currency, and be priced to gold at some point after they are recorded. So now the whole gamut of tricks will be employed to ensure the best exchange rate, from the simple attempts to "time" the transaction's entry to the books, to the panoply of hedging practices currently employed in today's environment. This is so because the transactions are not settled with actual delivery at the time they occur, hence creating all the opportunities to abuse the float that exist today. Since the goal here is to secure the best price, the pressure will continually and always be to depress gold relative to the local currencies.

FOA maintains that the way the Euro courts will avoid these problems is by not enforcing contracted terms that require physical gold delivery. Cash settlement will be the typical workout. In response to the conclusion that this would simply cause contract dealings to take place outside the Euro court jurisdiction, he contends that there will not be any substantial, organized markets in which to do this after the current dollar market cracks up. You could make whatever deals you wanted, but you would not find anyone willing or able to enforce gold delivery, if one party decided to back out. With no one able to bind your counterparty to delivery, you would find it hard to even organize a market to deal in gold paper, as there would be no incentive. The effect of all this, according to FOA, is to drive gold dealing mostly into the physical spot markets. Gold in this environment becomes something that cannot be inflated through credit use (with its subsequent debasement, and defaults). [FOA #78, 6/19/01]

A note that is issued by an entity that owns substantial real-wealth assets free and clear, is genuinely productive, and keeps its debt within check relative to its assets and income, is likely to be used, holding its worth not on the basis of contracted convertibility to the issuer's assets, but simply on the basis of who the issuer is... on his authority... in his good name. This concept is not new and has existed forever. What is different is to contemplate this in the realm of an international currency. FOA discusses this point in addressing some of the very fundamental concepts behind the design of the euro:

"Not long after the US defaulted on it's gold loans,,,, dollars held as gold certificates,,,,,, major thinkers began the long process of forming another world currency. One that would not maintain the fiction of a gold standard with the somewhat fixed gold prices inherent in such a system."

"[ ... ] After operating on a fiat system for 20+ years people are starting to realize that the only thing that backs a currency is the real productive efforts of their people. Yes, over time we always borrow more than our productive efforts can pay back and proceed to crash the money system. But what else is new? (smile)

"We call this a money's "timeline" [ ... ] "

"It seems people saw something else that would make the Euro unique. Paid up assets also stand behind circulating money. Indeed, if someone ow[n]s a $100,000 dollar piece of land , has a good producing job and borrowed $50,000 against his land,,,,,, the world is likely to circulate that debt note as a fiat land backed currency. But, if his gold (the land) is worth $1 million in a free physical market,,, AND RISES FURTHER IF CURRENCY SUPPLY OUTPACES REAL PRODUCTION,,,,,,, and his other debts are relatively low ,,,,,, the same note would circulate just as effectively if the $50,000 was borrowed against his name alone." [FOA #7, 2/26/00]

A currency designed to work in an environment where gold is exchanged free of the impediments of paper manipulations, is likely to be used by those who want physical gold -- as it is not threatened by gold. This is diametrically in opposition to the current reserve currency paradigm. They would seek to use this new currency as the medium with which to conduct their business. It's simply easier (and less costly...).

If an oil producer wants to take partial payment in gold, even a miniscule portion, he simply cannot get it in markets that trade at today's prices. His bona-fide, serious, and completely backed demand, introduced directly to this system would kill it because there simply is not ever going to be enough actual gold to meet this demand at current price levels. But if we should let the price rise to obtain its market level, it would fight this with maniacal desperation, as the entire system relies upon gold at the present artificially low prices. Every kind of pressure, intimidation, compromise and creative forward financing would be deployed, all in an effort to thwart delivery (or at least postpone it into the sweet bye-and-bye). Just do anything to prevent exchange at the offered price...

But isn't the currency supposed to facilitate exchange? It seems if I try to use THIS currency to get the job done, it will prove woefully inadequate for the task. This currency does not freely express the value estimates of buyers and sellers in its markets, so necessary to facilitate transactions. Rather it handicaps and sabotages the effort instead. The policies of its issuers by design do not allow the instrument to perform its job correctly. So, if a new currency ascends from the horizon, whose design is to make the process a lot less painful...

Will the euro be ideal? No, it will have its own pressures that cause its own imbalances, and subsequent destruction. It will have its own timeline... birth, youthful beauty, age and treachery, and ultimately death... But the point is not to create the perfect system, which in an imperfect world is impossible. It is just to identify reality (political, technological, predominant world-views, etc.), and put something together that most successfully accommodates the dynamics at work in that season. That said, it seems a currency modeled like the euro, would better serve the demands of modern international trade settlement. The application of gold is best left as something physically acquired with the surpluses in an open (and free) marketplace.

The Malaysian concept (at least as far as we’ve been introduced to it) is not unlike putting old wine into new wineskins. They correctly wish to allow the free pricing of gold, they also seem to want to elevate gold to its traditional status as "the" premier wealth holding [new skins]. They err, however, in trying to use gold as a currency [old wine]. They confuse the concepts of money, currency, and wealth. They mistakenly wish to make gold function with the dynamic properties of currency, while still attempting to establish in it the longer term, fixed value attributes, required for something you issue paper against. In this day that role is inefficient and inappropriate, as it leaves gold subject to endless manipulation because of these dual conflicting roles.

I know that if you put new wine in old wineskins, the skins burst from the action of fresh fermentation. I don't exactly know what the outcome is of putting old wine in new wineskins, except that it doesn't make sense. (I suppose all you would get is leathery tasting vinegar.) Albeit the interview snippets give only a very removed glimpse into what the Malaysian plan contains. Nonetheless it seems there is a lot of room to "work" the system. However, I'm certain they have thought this through much further than I could even fathom, and have the bases covered. With that, may it be then, that Dr. Mahathir's Malaysia prospers, and their trade surpluses avoid the entanglements of the paper-plying middlemen, and are instead deployed in prudent investment, and in the outright acquisition of this grand metal of the kings...

miner

RobotGuy

(05/03/2002; 06:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74822)

Good or Bad?? I can't figure out what the message is of this article,... I think it's good but,.... Help me out here!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDE1478EB%2DA044%2D4511%2D877E%2D9ED043574E44%7D&siteid=mktwSnippit;

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest are not all that excited about gold right now. Their average exposure to the gold market is just 37.5 percent, with the remaining 62.5 percent allocated to cash.

If you're a contrarian, their tepid feelings about bullion are good news, both for gold itself and the shares of gold mining companies.

I frankly am surprised that today's gold timers are not more enthusiastic. With the yellow metal exhibiting more signs of life than it has in years, I would have expected nearly ubiquitous exuberance among the gold-timing newsletters. After all, that is exactly how they reacted every other time in recent years in which bullion rallied to the $300 per ounce level.

But not this time. After briefly jumping to 90 percent in early February when bullion rose to the $300 level, the HFD's gold sentiment index has steadily declined to less than half that level today. Yet bullion actually is higher today than it was three months ago.

This is a textbook case of what is often seen at the beginning of sustainable rallies. As contrarians constantly remind us, bull markets don't like company; they thrive when relatively few advisers and investors have jumped on their bandwagon. This is why contrarians were not particularly surprised that gold's rally stalled in mid-February, the point at which virtually all the timers followed by the HFD had become bullish. Today, in contrast, gold at $310 per ounce has fewer cheerleaders than it did three months ago when gold was trading at a lower price.

Incidentally, this sentiment picture for gold is just the opposite of what prevails for equities. In that arena the average adviser has been stubbornly optimistic in the face of a significant decline, which is why I grade sentiment among stock timing newsletters as bearish.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 06:56:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74823)

"Interesting Times"

Gold is moving higher now, while the USD is dropping like a rock. Petroleum is higher. Speaking of petroleum I will review some literature:

The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

Geodestines: The inevitable Control of Earth's Resources Over Nations and Individuals

The Coming Oil Crisis

Not to mention my studies of the depletion of other resources such as clean water, minerals, and metals. The economy is rather fragile right now and cannot withstand a sucker punch from declining energy. As I have said before, the real sleeper is in Natural Gas as it is the only growing source for electricity. Forget about nuclear, coal, oil, hydroelectric, and renewables. If the production of NG falls and reserves are not replenished � the US economy is toast.

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started. In other words prepare as you would for an extended period of unemployment and even a serious natural disaster. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade

RobotGuy

(05/03/2002; 07:04:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74824)

Go on now spot, do what it is you do best!

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 07:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74825)

Gold Shares Predict A Strong Gold Move?

I see that GOLD, HGMCY, and DROOY been been moving strongly higher and have crowded out a lot of tech names on the ticker this morning. That is usually a positive sign for Gold as shares front run the physical metal. Since the unemployment data was released the POG jumped higher and USD Index dropped hard. Also, market futures are all down and no one is likely to want to hold stock ahead of the weekend in this crummy investing environment.

Could get very "interesting" today. Can't wait to see the look on the "Mummy's" face tonight if the markets tank and the POG rockets.

- Black Blade

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 07:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 74826)

Thank you to all who commented on my post...I appreciate the response..and hope it was helpful. goldquest I read the URL you posted about the particulars of the gold confiscation and found it chilling in it's implications...all here should read it as we are clearly now in a state of national emergency again...

http://www.enteract.com/~mgfree/Economics/goldHistory.htmlThe ramifications for all of us who refuse to have our savings captive of the elite controllers of the judical system are obvious and terrifying.

Rock

(05/03/2002; 07:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74827)

The Level of deception

Hi all, I really burns me up to see people like potato head Neal Cavuto of CNBC and Larry Kudlow who have not deviated from their long held views, there is nor ever was a recession after all the techincal indicators just arn't there. Has these fools been following the stock market lately? How about the unemployment numbers? They announced yesterday that they are going to have Sec of Treasury Paul O'Neil back on CNBC but I missed it yesterday.

I guess after his previous statement or should I say non statement about the dollars future didn't go over that well with the CNBC Cheerleaders and they are blaming him for the down turn and negative sentiment of the dollar lately.

I can't stand the whole bunch of them and I can't wait to see them proved wrong. One stock broker on CNBC recently being interviewed by Maria Bartaloma said he quit and joined the coast guard because his life was threatened. Well thats what happens when you lie to people and people loose their lifes savings. well gold looks good today, go gold. have a great weekend,
Sir Rock

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/03/2002; 07:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74828)

The Bulls are still loose at this Rodeo in gold

Sometimes I get tired of speculation and the "when is it really going to happen?" question. Looking at the simple facts. Gold price breakouts have been occuring in approx. 4 month intervals between points of rapid ascent.

We have factual data within the past year of these periodic POG breakouts:

1st= mid May 2001 was a $22 spike with a fallback of $22

2nd= mid Sept 2001 was a $20 spike with a fallback of $15

3rd= late Jan 2002 was a $25 spike with a fallback of $10

So a plain vanilla prediction.........
Next~late June 2002 says a $30 spike with a fallback of $5.
(this is a lean-bean analysis with no fudge factor involved)

Am I really "making this up?" That is from a 1 year gold chart. The slower your time frame the more meaningful it is. For a more current analysis, we can see each spike was "framed" in a head and shoulders pattern. We have passed midway between the first shoulder and the center crescent midpoint awaiting the next first shoulder of the coming June~~~$30 spike~~~. So I'll give you 10 more trading days for POG to rabbit hop up to 315 not 312, and to go flat across not dropping back much over a buck if at all. Then it does the doldrums till mid to late June when the plaster gets knocked off the ceiling and a big hole is discovered in the basement of the stock market where the meteorite landed. Goldshares should do the "giddy willies" volatility reprieve scaring everyone in them attracting millions of minions. Hedged stuff is going DOWN not up and unhedged stuff is doing the air glide off the snowboard jump. Yes we are in for a wild ride. And the folks in the mountains still do not believe we ever walked on the moon saying it was all done on a stage in Hollywood to fool the American people. Have to love the mountain people though, the folks stashing gold and PGMs.
==========================================================
Because Spot is a good pet but he just likes to sleep alot between hunting seasons.
==========================================================
"Hey it's mid June and I have to pay like a $50 premium per coin now............." -history, be a part of it, buy now and make it happen. -GR2

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 07:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 74829)

Paraoia or just historical awareness?

After having read goldquests post of the URL describing the gold confiscation of Roosevelt in the spring of 1933, I am wondering if the current "war" "emergency" or whatever is really not sufficent justification to confiscate anything the government feels is necessary. My ownership in gold mining stocks and gold coins in a federally liscensed bank safety deposit box(complete with security cameras watching what I put in and take out) is really safe from any future confiscation. If ,as we postulate here, the stakes are as great for the established powers as they appear, it will be a minor step for the government to grab whatever they need to refinance their control. The large gold mines are no doubt aware of this and realize that their resistance would be futile and therefore they have either become part of the group such as Barrick, Placer, and AngloGold or they remain strangely silent like Newmont and the few other majors. The need to put value back into the currency at some future date makes the nationalization of a gold mine a minor issue. If the Congress of the United States could abrogate all of the gold clauses of all the millions of contracts that existed in commerce in the 1930s what is really to stop them from forcing a sale or confiscation of individually held gold in a "crisis" like the war against terroism. The flimsy justifications that the government used in the 1930-1970 period to make ownership of gold a felony is almost unbeleivable in light of the Constitution of the United States. Yet they did it. To hoard became a crime, to not comply with the consfication became a felony. To have property which the banking system could not control was a punishable offense...Amazing.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 07:52:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74830)

Greenspan: Options Rules Need Changes

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020503/economy_greenspan_4.html
Snippit:

SEA ISLAND, Ga. (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday strongly urged U.S. regulators to overhaul rules on stock options, saying the Enron debacle highlights the need to add clarity to corporate accounting.

The Fed chief said the current system, which does not force companies to expense stock options granted to their officers, distorts the corporate profit picture and poses risks to the marketplace.

"The seemingly narrow accounting matter of option expensing is, in fact, critically important for the accurate representation of corporate performance," Greenspan told a financial markets conference convened here by the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

Black Blade: I agree, these overpaid charlatans posing as corporate officers are looting the companies bank accounts without any accountability. There give the shareholder "the finger" while they and their friends abscond with the cash, ultimately leaving ruin in their wake.

Brett Woods

(05/03/2002; 07:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74831)

Austrian gold coins hot items

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/start.htm

VIENNA (Kyodo) Austrian gold coins featuring images of the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra have logged record sales in Japan since Japanese maestro Seiji Ozawa conducted a New Year concert in Vienna on Jan. 2.

According to Austrian Mint officials, 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) of the gold coins were sold in Japan from January to April, five times the volume registered in the same period last year and in excess of total overseas sales last year.

The gold coin series, first issued in 1989, is known formally as "Vienna Gold Coin Harmony," with the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra as the central theme. Violins and other musical instruments are featured on the flip side of the coins.

Austrian Mint officials said they are pleased with the sales surge in Japan and said Ozawa's New Year concert triggered the popularity of the coins.

Austria sold 20,000 ounces of the "Harmony" gold coins on the domestic market last year and 50,000 ounces overseas, 80 percent of this total in Japan alone, according to the Austrian Mint.

Four different "Harmony" coins are in circulation: 1 ounce, half ounce, one-quarter ounce and one-tenth of an ounce.

According to coin dealers, the 1-ounce gold coin fetches 46,600 yen in Japan at coin retailers.

The Japan Times: May 2, 2002

Golden Bear

(05/03/2002; 08:01:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74832)

nickel62 (msg#: 74829) Paraoia or just historical awareness?

Nickel62,

"To hoard became a crime, to not comply with the consfication became a felony. To have property which the banking system could not control was a punishable offense...Amazing."

Do you think your bullion in that safety deposit box is beyond confiscation? That's not a trade I would bet on...

Paranoia is almost healthy when dealing with beaurocrats!

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 08:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74833)

Global: Debating the Current Account

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020503-fri.html#anchor0

Snippit:

There's a sharp difference of opinion in Washington these days over the implications of America's gaping current-account deficit. The Bush Administration has taken a fairly blas� stance, suggesting that the external gap isn't a big deal -- that it is nothing more than a by-product of a voracious foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets. A few blocks away, the International Monetary Fund puts it quite differently. In its just-released World Economic Outlook, it highlights the US current-account deficit at the top of a list of imbalances that have the clear potential to jeopardize any recovery in the global economy. Who's got it right?

Black Blade: An interesting question posed by Stephen Roach.

BTW, did anyone notice that last months unemployment numbers were revised downward? In March, firms had cut 21,000 jobs, a sharp downward revision from the 58,000 increase estimated a month ago. That's sixth straight consecutive downward revision!!! Can't the BLS get it right? As I have been saying, it is easy to statistically massage the data. Of course after the fact, revising data is quickly forgotten by wall Street.

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 08:06:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74834)

Sign of the times! Closed banks being made into convenience stores, bakeries and 7-11s

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20020503b4.htmHanamasa is among a crop of companies that, thanks to declining land prices and an ongoing rush by merging banks to shut down overlapping branches, have secured a foothold in prime Tokyo locations.

Hordes of other businesses -- from convenience stores to bookstores to restaurant chains -- have also made advances recently.

In what was formerly a bank vault, customers are served "soba" buckwheat noodles at the Ueno outlet of the Takadaya restaurant chain in Taito Ward, Tokyo.

According to the Japanese Bankers Association, the number of branches of city banks, which have realigned roughly into four megabank groups in the last 2 1/2 years, has been steadily declining.

As of Sept. 30, the number of domestic city bank branches stood at 2,408, down 233 from March 1999.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 08:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74835)

Dive! Dive! Dive!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
The USD Index is crashing (see graph at link). Meanwhile Gold is moving solidly higher. People are concerned that the much touted "recovery" is nothing but a pipedream. Also the amrket indices are hammered - it's only a matter of time before the word goes out from Washington and Wall Street to: buy! buy! buy! Just as in days of past panics. JP Morgan was famous for propping up the markets and now we have the "Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets".

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 08:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74836)

Well it looks like Tokyo

Only has 2175 more bank branches to go...I hope there is a need for that many new noodle shops!

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 08:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74837)

Golden Bear

No, I guess it is not..in fact that was what was so terrifying about the historical account. I was wondering about the real upside of my gold mining stocks as well. As a major part of my retirement and my investment future there positon is of concern as well. And this from a gold stock analyst.

AU_Poor

(05/03/2002; 08:21:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74838)

@Black Blade - Greenspan on stock options

I recall reading that Microsoft would have lost $8 billion last year (instead of a net of $X billion) if stock options were counted as expenses. Conveniently, Microsoft et al ARE allowed to deduct the options against income for tax purposes.

Any guesses how SMs and PMs might be affected by this very remote possibility?

Greenspan is the "good guy" now on record to do the right thing, but I would bet his marching orders are the opposite.

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 08:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74839)

With apologies to Black Blade for adding to his snippits...on the Morgan Stanley Stephen Roach article....

Massive and ever-widening external imbalances can not be financed easily in perpetuity. They require ever-greater volumes of capital inflows that eventually lead to a point of saturation insofar as foreign holdings of dollar-denominated assets are concerned. That's all the more pertinent in light of our current-account deficit forecast of nearly 6% of GDP in 2003 -- and its concomitant external financing need of nearly $2 billion of foreign capital inflows per day. If such a massive external funding requirement doesn't lead to a saturation of the foreign appetite for US assets, I'm not sure what will. Just because America's external financing was manageable in the 1990s doesn't mean it will be so as the as the ever-widening current-account deficit now ups the ante on capital inflows. Needless to say, that conclusion is in direct contradiction to that of the capital-flow-driven justification of the Bush Administration.

Interestingly enough, there are signs suggesting that this point of saturation may now be at hand. As Joe Quinlan and Rebecca McCaughrin have recently noted, the portfolio portion of capital inflows into the United States has slowed dramatically in early 2002 (see their 1 May dispatch, "US Portfolio Flows Update -- Precarious Underpinnings"). Over the first two months of this year, foreigners purchased just $27 billion of dollar-denominated assets, a dramatic reduction from the $100 billion pace in the first two months of 2001. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment into the United States -- the other major piece of the capital inflows equation -- has also slowed dramatically. FDI into the US was $158 billion in 2001 -- only a little more than half the $295 billion average pace of 1999 and 2000. Fully two-thirds of this slowdown is traceable to diminished FDI activity from Europe; that's largely a reflection of a dramatic downshift in the cross-border M&A cycle -- a trend that has continued into the early months of 2002.

One by one, the sources of foreign capital inflows into dollar-denominated assets seem to be drying up. First, it was equities, an understandable by-product of the post-bubble climate. Then it was FDI, reflecting the pronounced downturn in the global M&A cycle. And now it appears that foreign purchases of US bonds are on the wane -- initially Treasuries and, more recently, corporates. Needless to say, this draws the key premise of the current-account defense of the Bush Administration into serious question. To the extent that the capital account is turning, current-account financing difficulties can only intensify. The recent weakening of the US dollar in foreign exchange markets rounds out the picture. This should hardly be surprising -- currencies are the relative price that often picks up the bulk of the arbitrage between current- and capital-account disparities.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 09:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74840)

USD Index Plunges!

Well look at that will ya! The USD just tumbled below 114! Gold should respond by rising. Meanwhile, there is absolutely no positive news for the economy. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(05/03/2002; 09:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74841)

Yumpin Yiminy!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOI think we got ourselves a gusher, Pa!

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(05/03/2002; 10:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74842)

Tanks Roll in MidEast; Gold Rolls on the Comex; Dollar, Dow SinkNEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

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If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

____________________________

"For more than 2000 years gold was viewed by generation after generation as a safe haven in times of crises. Gold was an insurance asset, in fact, formuch of the time the only insurance asset. 2000 years\of history is not wiped out within two decades. This wave of global prosperity cannot continue forever, andI believe, history is busy proving that right now as we speak."
Ian Cockerill, CEO, GoldFields

Gold Market Brief (5/3/02) . . . Gold worked its way higher this morning renewing its assault on two year highs as the Labor Department reported unemployment at a 7 year high and Israel mounted an assault of its own on Hamas strongholds in the West Bank city of Nablus. Hopes that some progress was being made in the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians were delivered a set-back when Israeli Prime Minister Sharon stated his refusal to sit down at the peace table with Yasser Arafat, and Republicans in the U.S. Congress began to register their disapproval with Bush administration handling of the problem. There are reports this morning of physical buying in both Europe and North America on the back of these developments and attendant concerns about further weakness in the U.S. economy and the wobbly dollar. U.S. stocks are getting hammered. Gold's advance today is without the help of Japanese gold buyers who are celebrating the Golden Holidays. The World Gold Council reports that buying in India has picked up its gold buying in advance of the upcoming wedding season. Alan Greenspan delivered a blow to the stock market today by calling for the inclusion of employee options on the expense side of corporate balance sheets. Reporting and regulation of option positions could put a large number of already fragile blue-chip balance sheets underwater.

The safe-haven metal held its own all week despite a steady drumbeat of negativity from the bears, and concerted attempts to drive it lower. Owners of the metal seem to be in it for the long term with the steady flow of news on losses, abuses and criminal activity in corporate America adding the backdrop.The firm tone gathered pace this morning as negative news seem to hit the markets from all directions. "Gold still looks like it's breaking out of formation and still showing surprising strength," Alaron's Phil Flynn told CBS Marketwatch. "People are going to more traditional investments on concern in the stock markets."
The safe-haven metal has enjoyed something of a resurgence over the past several weeks in response to tensions in the Middle East, strong Japanese buying, bullion bank and mine company covering, and a general sense that world equities markets still have their worst days ahead. The dollar, which had experienced a selloff last week, steadied some this week, and then tipped its nose this morning and took a dive. Doubts have begun to surface globally about the dollar's long term value despite repeated comments from the U.S. Treasury Department that the strong dollar policy is still in force. The markets do not appear to be convinced and the general lack of confidence on a global scale is showing up in the gold market.
Have a good weekend. See you here, Monday.

Pippin

(05/03/2002; 10:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74843)

Judiciary Crisis ?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27276-2002May3.htmlQuote
WASHINGTON �� President Bush accused Senate Democrats on Friday of "endangering the administration of justice in America" by balking at many of his judicial nominees.

Declaring a vacancy crisis on the federal bench, Bush said, "Justice is at risk in America and the Senate must act for the good of the country."

The sharp challenge to the Democratic-controlled Senate reflected a mounting fight between the White House and Democrats over the shape of the federal judiciary. Democrats have objected to the nominees on many grounds, including their contention that Bush's candidates tend to be conservative.

The standoff is a warm-up for what both sides predict will be an enormous fight if Bush gets a chance to fill a Supreme Court vacancy.
UnQuote

YGM

(05/03/2002; 10:23:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74844)

Gold Lease Rates.......Up, Up. & Away.......

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.htmlMore pressure on the Cabal.....Must be alot of Valium being prescribed in Manipulation world.......Here's hoping our greatly missed Sage..."FOA" is enjoying a sunny beach somewhere and watching the great 'Unraveling' on his laptop!

Sure do wish he'd drop by with some of his perceptual Gold thoughts tho!....

YGM

(05/03/2002; 10:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74845)

XAU.........We will see 90 by June 30th????.........Hmmmmm....OK!

http://www.phlx.com/Up to 78+ again....Go Baby!

YGM

(05/03/2002; 11:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 74846)

Lease Rate Graph...

Was messed up earlier....Cause it 'was' showing huge gain earlier.....Sorry!

Sierra Madre

(05/03/2002; 11:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74847)

The posts today are of exceptional quality!

Nickel62, Miner49er...excellent stuff. Unique.

Miner, I'll have to read carefully - must be going now, will be back later. Mahathir is perhaps the ONLY head of government who is doing any thinking. Truly amazing.

Nickel62, your historical post brought to mind the life of Richard (?) Cantillon, during the John Law episode in France.

Cantillon made a bundle before the bubble popped - he saw it all coming, quite clearly - and slipped out of Paris very quietly. Lived the rest of his life comfortably in London. Unfortunately for him, his cook murdered him one night.

Cantillon wrote THE first book on economics of modern times, which few people know about.

Today, looks like gold is really turning vicious. I do believe we have reached a turning point, and gold will run away from the controllers. They will attempt a comeback - but not to return to present prices, just to control further rises - after a substantial rise, when the weakest holders begin to think of "taking their profits" (those ninnys who still think in dollars). That's when the controllers will mount their counteroffensive, to stem the further rise. They may be successful, but only for a time.

Sierra

nickel62

(05/03/2002; 11:15:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74848)

The Golden Cheesehead memorial post

$313/ounce TOOOOOOOOOOOOO DAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

miner49er

(05/03/2002; 11:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 74849)

Sierra Madre @74847

I will be 100% away from all electronic access after this afternoon for a week, so if you should proffer any comments, please don't take it as rude when you don't hear from me... I will get back after my return.

Also, the paragraph where I hypothesize an oil producer buying in the current market, where it says: "it would fight this with maniacal desperation," the "it" should read: "the system" so as not to confuse "it" with the oil producer...

Thanks for taking the time to read...

miner

RobotGuy

(05/03/2002; 11:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74850)

How long can the FED continue to pump more money into the system to try preventing it's inevitable slide?

RobotGuy

(05/03/2002; 11:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74851)

DOW was practically in freefall this morning until it magically halted around the "psychological" 10000 mark. Hmmmmm.

Mr Gresham

(05/03/2002; 11:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74852)

Unemployment

Gee, and I thought unemployment was supposed to be GOOD for the stock market -- means the Fed will have to lower interest rates (snarf, snarf)...

"When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less..." -- Was that the Red Queen, or Humpty Dumpty? no matter

And�ril

(05/03/2002; 11:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74853)

RobotGuy 'How long...?'

There is no limitation on the flow of money possible. At any flash in time! Choose gold for while you sleep. Choose gold for your weekend. Choose gold when life calls you away from your monitor. You think you can stand toe to toe with the Fed, quicker on the draw than they? If you think that you will not blink first, then you are already dead. This is why gold is held by men of wisdom, by men full of life.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/03/2002; 11:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74854)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

YGM

(05/03/2002; 11:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74855)

Gold Hedgers, Silver Miners, Bubble Money

When the Writing's on The Wall.......Bullion moves approx 5 $, ABX & PDG move 2% or less. Two known Silver miners PAAS & Apex move 9+% and 2+% with silver up $0.06....To my tired eyes this appears to have the earmarks of serious PM investment of Bubble dollars coming out of the Dow & Duck...Imagine when all those Bubble Dollars get after the trend. We all remember the buying frenzy of Dot. Com madness, well all that Fed Wallpaper is still circulating and needs a nest.....

FWIW....Some Silver Stats from past PM Bull Markets, from GE Pages....

"Silver's price hit an all-time high of $52.50 per ounce in 1980, subsequently falling to its recent history low of $3.51 in 1991. Among the most prominent precious metals (gold, platinum and silver), silver tends to be the most volatile in price. In the 1979/80 precious metals bull market, silver's price increase was double gold's. And during the 1982 price surge, silver tripled gold's percent price increase. In the 1985/87 rally, silver just nosed out gold (96% to 79%). However, silver's percent run-up in the 1993 bull market was again twice that of gold."

**Now I'm not advocating AG over AU as investment as I believe Gold is going to be different this time, but some of us need a dose of history to justify our holding of Silver in even small percentages of overall PM's.....YGM

RobotGuy

(05/03/2002; 12:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 74856)

Anduril

My apologies, I regret to inform you that I am not aware of the entire meaning of your message. I was implying in my previous post that it is very unwise for a nation's government to continue with ineffective and possibly harmful counter measures to prop up a hollow economy. Do I "think I can go toe to toe with the FED?" ? Not sure exactly what is meant by this question. Perhaps I have misinterpreted your intended message, but it seems apparent there are insinuating undertones in your message. I apologise if I have offended you in any way, perhaps it will be wise of me to not participate in this forum, but merely observe.

RobotGuy.

da2g

(05/03/2002; 12:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 74857)

What economic recovery?

Seems like the preferred footware provider to da2g, Florsheim, is unfortunately going out of business. I was able to procure several pairs of Florshiem Imperial Wingtips at a hefty 58% discount, however.

More bones to Black Blades bone pile. Where does it all end?

And�ril

(05/03/2002; 12:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74858)

Clearing the message for RobotGuy

Sorry, not YOU the individual, personally. Use of word 'you' was to be understood as general references, equal to 'citizen' or 'saver' playing dangerously with dollar accounts.

Healthy and happy with gold is better.

The Traveler

(05/03/2002; 13:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74859)

@Nickel62 (#74829)

Do not doubt that your "property rights" will be trampled in the crisis to come.

Since my first visit here three years ago, it has been my constant theme that socio -political pressures will determine your financial survival in the post � dollar world. If all paper burns and the debt supported real estate market collapses (no lenders thus no buyers), how likely is it that the masses ** many of whom have lost their home equity, 401(K) and/or jobs** will demand of Washington a quick fix at any expense! People go berserk now over a 10-cent increase in a gallon of gasoline or a $1 ATM charge. Ponder the social unrest in Argentina � and they have been through this twice in the last two decades. By contrast, Americans are currency crisis virgins!

Remember � less than 1 in 1,000 Americans own any gold coins or bullion and less than 1% of them hold coins or bullion in quantity. Do you not believe their jealous cry will be "Its not fair!" or the campaign slogan will be "To get America rolling again, lets redistribute the PGA's windfall." Your Uncle did it to the oil industry in the late 1970's.

The Fed currently punishes savers with a negative real return to the benefit of debtors. Will not your Uncle also favor the electorate over the PGA in the crisis to come? Bet big on it!

Outright confiscation? Not likely as your Uncle cannot stand behind the legal tender laws as he did in the 1930's. Besides, its simpler just to tax you at a 70% non-capital gains rate. For the youngsters here, 70% was the top marginal rate of the tax code prior to Ronald Reagan's 1981 election.

With the "money laundering" reporting that your PM dealer will soon be required to do � which might now cover numismatic coins and possibly impose a withholding rate to be tendered to the IRS along with his report on your transaction � your windfall will be exposed for your Uncle to tax. Direct barter transactions can easily be taxed as well by incentives to report.

Even if you are lucky enough to have gotten or to get your physical to the EU, reporting requirements there will still tell your Uncle that you had a windfall and thus owe taxes.

Only if the unraveling of three decades of financial experimentation becomes very harrowing will gold be confiscated outright at a "fair" price (smile). Then a two-currency regime will be decreed by executive order - one as a domestic peso-like fiat and the other an international, gold backed currency that Americans will not be permitted to hold even in overseas accounts (SSN and passport numbers will betray you). We will still need to import five million barrels of oil per day despite harsh conservation measures and the producers will want to be paid in something of value. But this too will flop as having twice been burned, the Euro with all its warts will be favored as the new reserve currency by Central Banks whose trade is in a net surplus.

In summary, the welfare establishment hates gold and PGAs and will do all in its power to punish them for their self-sufficiency.

Best regards to all,

The Traveler

Boilermaker

(05/03/2002; 13:12:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74860)

The SM

It looks like the PPT had to get into the market about 10:00AM today to kill a rout. Can any one tell me if this one-sided game can be played long term without risk? It seems there should be a lot of negative paper out there ready to implode. How/when does this happen? Who gets run over?

(05/03/2002; 13:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74861)

USD AX INDEX BREAKS BELOW 99.70MG !

AT THE CLOSE OF GOLD TRADING TODAY IN NEW YORK THE

US DOLLAR AS MEASURED BY THE AX INDEX DROPPED TO

99.69 MG (MILLIGRAMS) OF GOLD

GoldnSilver2002

(05/03/2002; 14:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74862)

People always ask for a date.

If one looks closely at the 1 year chart for Gold,one sees the cabals fingerprints on every rush.As it accelerates upwards suddenly it is pushed down.But lately Gold has responded to every plunge as one last oppurtunity to get some at artificially low prices.Instead of hating the cabal'some of us must toast them.Firstly they allow the average joe to buy in at prices they can actually afford.Secondly,their folly has helped bring about some of the influences which will ultimatley send gold much furthur than if it had been left alone all these years.We always see the day "it" began in retrospect.In my opinion,if one looks closely one can see it has begun.The media wont tell us until wisely they proclaim "we knew it all along",pretending to have warned a clueless public."gold whats Gold?",many will proclaim.

Clearly Gold is starting to Hammer on the castle doors,the support beams are starting to snap,and some of the foot soldiers(shorts,hedgers) are starting to abandon their positions and run to the hills.All we need now is something to happen to the us economy,that "no one foresaw".Enron was the iceberg?Sept 11 was the end of war on terror? The media is telling us the truth?Dont ask for a date,if anyone knew that the twin towers might still be standing,but they arent are they.Gold to the moon?Your damn rights it is and soon!!

Cavan Man

(05/03/2002; 14:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74863)

The Traveler

Thank goodness for dual citizenship.

TownCrier

(05/03/2002; 14:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74864)

The latest personal look at the men behind the big desks

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlSome excerpts from updated commentary courtesy of our friends at Central Banking Publications Ltd.
--------

ALL CYLINDERS MAY SOON BE FIRING AT THE FED
The two unmanned seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors look like they might finally be catapulted back into action, so that the board could be firing on all seven cylinders before long. The empty seats have been languishing uncomfortably in the background while the board has been working overtime with just five members participating. But it is widely reported that President Bush has now singled out two possible candidates for the board: Princeton economist Ben Bernanke and Federal Reserve official Donald Kohn. ...(more)

GERASHCHENKO'S NEW CALLING
Viktor Gerashchenko, may no longer run the Russian central bank, but he still knows how to grab the headlines. With his usual dry wit, he has been poking fun at the snail-like Russian bureaucracy - of which he was once a part - complaining that they were fumbling over his pension application. The press loved it: "If I don't manage to get the pension bonus awarded to former state employees I'll have to work." He said that he was toying with the idea of becoming a road sweeper, and that at least in that way he could realise his childhood dream of keeping Moscow's streets clean - which is more than he did, some say, for Russia's banks.

AND THEN THERE WERE EIGHT
The old-style council of the Bundesbank has undergone sweeping changes as part of changes bringing the bank in line with the new era of the European single currency.... Ernst Welteke - who will remain the president of the bank - in London recently drew on all his years of experience in answering yet another tedious question on the correct euro/dollar exchange rate. It seems that beneath the tough Teutonic exterior there lies a soft and rather muddled man. "I've seen so many exchange rates in my life I don't know what the right one is!" Now that's what Central Banking calls transparency.

HAYAMI DOESN'T SUFFER FOOLS
Masaru Hayami, governor of the Bank of Japan, does not suffer fools gladly. Some reporters, apparently ignorant of the ways of central bankers, thought they might elicit an insightful answer when they asked him whether the market rumours that he may step down before the end of his five-year term were true. "Don't ask such stupid questions" he retorted. Reporters should do their homework before asking central bank governors questions.

(click URL for more)

YGM

(05/03/2002; 15:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74865)

A "Must Read"......Thom Calandra...'The Bull' in 'Bull-ion'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={C8028807-6DC1-48BB-B233-4375B05E226D}BTW...When I used the Central Fund as a point of interest for Silver ownership awhile back? Well was I ever behind the times. They now hold over 8,000,000 oz of AG....

Read on......Thom's best yet.....

Graefin

(05/03/2002; 16:21:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74866)

Latest from Arch Crawford...5/1/2000

http://www.traders-talk.com/site/show_article.asp?id=498Crawford Perspectives 5/1/2
by Arch Crawford

"The planetary aspects affecting GOLD/Oil tonight are the following:

Jupiter quincunx (150 degrees) to Neptune 9:45pmEDT and
Sun square (90 degrees) Neptune 8:11amEDT

GOLD opens at 8:20amEDT

We believe that a near-term TOP is forming, and may already be in place.
If the aspect power maximizes on Wed. OPEN, there may yet be another POP to new highs for the move by then. The Timing is much better/closer in Gold than in stocks, which may show strongest price moves or tops/bottoms +/- 1-3 days. GOLD often makes the turn within Minutes of the aspects!

In any case, we expect some reasonable consolidation against an overbought condition.

We are selling a portion of positions this afternoon, and will Sell More on Wed. OPEN!

For short term trades, we will actually take new SHORT positions.

For anything longer, we will hold Core Positions in Gold & Gold Stocks, for much higher prices later.

We will attempt to Cover Shorts and reposition long side at undetermined future lows."

Arch Crawford
Crawford Perspectives

- Gr�fin

Rock

(05/03/2002; 16:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74867)

The Traveler

That was a very mind provoking thesis my friend, thank you for your time. I have a quick question for any of you brilliant knights or ladies of the round table. From time to time I have heard at the table that safe deposit boxes may not be a safe place to store our gold in these times where the gov't can inspect and even confiscate our gold should we go to withdraw it during a financial meltdown of sorts. I would assume that many of us has at least some of our gold in those safe deposit boxes.

Do any of you recommed storing all of it at our homes using construction concealment, burying at the farm and so forth. As far as I'm concerned I have a sophisticated alarm system, a huge watch dog, a few high powered weapons and so forth yet I still don't believe in storing the whole enchilatta (which really isnt that much in the first place) all at the ranch. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

And I'll concur with Black blade, store some extra non-perishables at the house and some extra bucks for a few months you never know if and when public services could be shut down for one reason or another. Take care and thanks for everything.

Sir Rock

Graefin

(05/03/2002; 17:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74868)

Rock...it's story time...

A few years back I was employed in a money-handling position. After a criminal investigation regarding the embezzlement of hundreds of thousands of dollars, my employer put new safegards in place, however, those safegards must be logical. As always, I tucked my deposit cash into a regular envelope and marched over to the cashier's office, but after the review of money-handling, my direct supervisor wanted me to use a brown zippered bag with a lock on it. Good god! I remember telling her, "Why don't you just put a siren and red light on my head as I walk with the cash??"
The moral of the story?
I continued to take my cash deposits over in plain envelopes, but varied my routes each time I left. Leave a trail which no one can follow and blend in with everyone else.

Peace!
- Gr�fin

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/03/2002; 17:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74869)

Russian soldiers leave gold behind.

http://www.bluesapphires.net/ladies/mc1593.shtmlI like the contrast between the blue and the gold.

But when it's all said and done,

"Mail picture of boat" still comes to mind.

And,

"Sorry honey I spent all our money on physical gold, so we can't have any kids" because I can't sell it with the premiums that it cost me to get it. I'm feeling blue.-GR2

USAGOLD

(05/03/2002; 17:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74870)

Nickel 62. . . .Your 74829

It is interesting to see the light go on in individual's the way it did for me some time ago. Quite a jolt once the realization sinks in that gold ownership in the United States is a privilege not a right. For a real revelation read "From Constitutional Republic to Corporate State: The Federal Reserve Board, 1931-1934" by Dr. Walker F. Todd (1995) as excerpted in "How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation" by myself and George R. Cooper. In that inclusion as an Appendix to the report, Dr. Todd tells the chilling story of a confrontation between Senator Glass (of Glass-Steagall fame) and Franklin Roosevelt the night before Roosevelt's inauguration.

Senator Glass confronted Roosevelt on his plan to close the banks virtually as his first act as president telling him he didn't have the authority. Roosevelt replied that he intended to get the authority which he promptly did for that and other eggregious acts: On March 3rd, 1933 Roosevelt closed the banks. On March 8, 1933 he requested from the banks a list of all persons who had withdrawn gold or gold certificates from the banking system. On April 5, 1933, citing a "national emergency" (which Glass considered preposterous and Hoover likened to the Nazis setting fire to the Reichstag in order to usher in Hitler's "emergency" rule blaming the fire on the Communists), Roosevelt confiscated Americans' gold. On December 28, 1933 Roosevelt issued an additional Executive Order exempting gold coins minted 1933 or earlier from confiscation as collector items. Anyone who thinks that the precedent does not exist for another confiscation or that the U.S. government under pressing circumstances would somehow by-pass that temptation doesn't completely understand the reasons for confiscation in the first place.

Repeatedly, in the documentation you see justifications like "to protect the currency system of the United States," "private hoarding. . .poses a grave threat to peace, equal justice," etc. In the first confiscation executive order, Roosevelt has the temerity to refer to Americans as "subjects of the United States." Comtemptible as it is, we must understand that governments will do what it takes to survive, Argentina being the most recent example -- and that to me is the real lesson of the "Tears of Argentina." It is also apparent that the gold confiscation did not occur so that the government would end up with some sort of windfall. The gold confiscation occurred so that the government could open the field to pursue its monetary policies without worrying that the population would head for gold in protest and in order to protect itself. How can anyone who comes to these essential understandings say that it wouldn't happen again?

Once again, the key is pre-1933 gold coin ownership. As the study shows, these items traded freely in the United States between the confiscation in 1933 and re-legalization in 1975 We believe they provide the best chance for you to come-in under the radar because precedent gives them special standing. As a small and out of the way market, they were not a threat to government plans in 1933. They will not be threat in the future. We continue to believe that they provide the best chance for investors to hold on to their gold even if we have a repeat of 1933. Note, we say "best chance" not gaurantee.

As renowned currency expert, Dr. Franz Pick said many years ago "It is an idiosyncrasy of governments that although they may prohibit ownership of gold in any form, they are reluctant to touch collections of numismatic gold coins. Today (in the early 1970s), there are some 49 counties which forbid ownership of gold by their citizens, but do allow holding gold coins for numismatic purposes." By precedent, "numismatic" has become synonomous with coins dated 1933 or earlier, as Mr. Cooper goes to great lengths to show in "How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation."

To receive the document in full in pdf form, e-mail

jill@usagold.com

and we will forward it to you free of charge.

The monograph includes an update of Henry Mark Holzer's "Chronology of Documents Relating to Gold Confiscation" by George R. Cooper, JD. Henry Mark Holzer was Ayn Rand's attorney.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/03/2002; 17:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74871)

CONFISCATION!

Traveler, if your thesis (confiscation, taxation, property rights trampled, etc.)is any way on the correct path it will go after the dollar burn, WHY should we continue to purchase GOLD coins from our most respected Mr. Kosares at CENTENNIAL PRECIOUS METALS????????????????
From my interpretation of the archives of ANOTHER and FOA, your position on the matter is in direct contrast to theirs!
What information are you privy to that substantiates your claims/predictions. I shall discontinue my purchases of GOLD coins until this matter can be resolved. THANKS in advance! d.j.p.-HOOSIER GOLDBUG.

USAGOLD

(05/03/2002; 17:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74872)

Addendum. . .

I should have added to my post below that there is a misconception among investors that pre-1933 gold coins carry very large premiums over their gold content. That is simply not the case. Please call either George, Marie or myself to discuss the details. Most are pleasantly surprised at how close these items trade to the gold price. Also, they follow the gold price up and down just like bullion coins.

P.S. Sorry for the spelling errors below.

USAGOLD

(05/03/2002; 17:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74873)

Hoosier. . .

Pls read my post below and contact jill@usagold.com for a copy of the report. It's not as bad as you think. It is better to understand the dangers of avalanche and make the proper adjustments in one's plans, than to ignore the dangers and find yourself totally buried. . . . . .

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/03/2002; 17:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74874)

Hoosier Goldbug

The Traveler is right about the big brother "cameras on every corner" future we face. Trust in the outback where in Revelations it says, "the woman flees into the wilderness where she has a place prepared for 3 1/2 years from the face of the beast." It has the speed of the leopard and the teeth of iron with claws of brass.
Buy more gold not less because by HIS grace you can use it to survive! At about the same time the beast goes hard after the free the sun heats up and as the polar ice caps melt and Greenlund becomes farmlund the Mississippi delta is looking like the gulf it ran into. Manhattan becomes Venice. And every oceanfront city on every coastline on earth is like 10-20 feet underwater. So the picture of the boat is important.

So when they talk of gold confiscation, that is elementary and "assumed", all goldbugs who know their history have read about how safety deposit boxes in 1933 had tags put on them, "To be opened only in the presence of a government inspector."

Buy it, hide it, wear it, tell it to your closest kin, but don't expect to be popular with it when hyperinflation hits. The best thing you can do is to get your relatives into gold so they don't end up moving in with you.

PH in LA

(05/03/2002; 18:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74875)

Is the sky really falling?

If we are to believe the "Chicken Littles" of this forum who run around crying "The sky is falling... keep a few month's worth of cash laying around, and plenty of canned food, etc in case everything goes to pot..." all our precious gold will soon be confiscated and/or taxed.

This is pure ego-centric logic at work. Let me re-phrase their positions:

"The main purpose of government is to take everything away from us small (but honest) folks. The small honest citizens must eventually lose everything and the easiest for all concerned is for the government to take it from them... if not by outright confiscation then by 70% tax rates."

But why then did the government not "call in" all the stock certificates during the tech bull market? I didn't see them going house to house calling "Turn in your Yahoo!" when it was at $250. No 70% taxes on profits either. Windfall or not!

Why is it that everything must be painted in such negative terms?

Rock

(05/03/2002; 18:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74876)

Hoosier Goldbug

Don't be alarmed my friend, thats why its important to consider those pre-1933 euro gold coins that USA Gold has and like MK said the premiums are as cheap as that of American bullion. As for me I have disversified my gold portfolio having some of each, a little American bullion and some pre-1933 French Roosters and Swiss Helvitas.

The fact is no one really knows what to expect from our government in times of a monetary crises but if and thats a big IF they were to pull that same stunt as they did in 1933 and decide to confiscate gold at least you would be protected by having some of those pre-1933 coins which would give you a valid argument to keep your gold as anything deemed rare or religous was exempt from confiscation.

Even knowing that the confiscation word is something I dont like to hear that didn't stop me from obtaining gold. If worst comes to worst the gov't buys it back from you anyway so you didnt lose anything but in effect your much better off knowing you have gold to protect yourself and your family and you have a hertiage to pass on to your children in these volitile times we live.

So don't be discouraged and sit on the side line and let a great opportunity pass you by. This train won't be stopping here again so get on and enjoy the ride while the fares are affordable. Nobody and I mean nobody knows what the gov't may or may not do but one thing we know here at the round table, get yourself some gold and you'll be glad you did. Cheers, even with all of America's faults we still live in the greatest country on the face of the earth.

Sir Rock

Rock

(05/03/2002; 18:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74877)

Graefin

"Leave a trail which no one can follow and blend in with everyone else." Good advise Graefin.

Au-some

(05/03/2002; 18:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74878)

Re: Gold Confiscation

I'm all for it. When things get bad enough and the price of gold gets high enough, I say we all march on Ft. Knox and confiscate the governments gold.
What? You think I'm kidding?

R Powell

(05/03/2002; 19:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74879)

Comparisons

I've often heard of the value of one ounce of gold being roughly equal to the cost of a good suit.
Being extra partial toward the poor man's gold I sometimes look for comparisons to the value of one ounce of the white metal.
Today's close,
July silver 461.50
July soybeans 461.25
One ounce silver will buy one bushel of beans with one-quarter of a penny in change. I don't know why I find this interesting but there may be some future value in such trivia.?
Besides, I had to say something before wishing everyone- Happy Weekend!!
Rich

YGM

(05/03/2002; 19:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74880)

The Term "Chicken Little".........

Wasn't that phrase coined.......
by a Wall St Anal-yst a few months before the crash of 29?

Seriously tho as the historical malfunctions of humankind do and will repeat themselves in one form or another thru the ages, they definately will increase in intensity and severity, primarily due to over population and dependancy on modernization of basic living needs....One only has to watch the fools on the "Survivor" series to see how patheticaly helpless a few adults are when deprived of basics for a mere 39 days. With knives, pots, shelter, fire
and a tropical island & sea they cannot even fashion wooden hooks, bamboo fish/crab/shrip traps or dig a pit to trap that fat wild pig. Makes me embarrassed to watch the fools.

Well folks the cities are full of millions of such helpless fools....The sky isn't gonna fall, but people are when times get bad enough....And the dirty 30's won't hold a candle to what we'll get next time....WW 2 was won with a nuke but we've not seen a war fought with them....You don't have to be a fatalist to want to speak out or to be one of God's 'Watchmen'.....There are many such Watchmen out there even tho they themselves may not realize it.....YGM.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 20:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74881)

Slouching dollar, shining gold

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/02/markets/dollar_gold/index.htm

The weakening U.S. currency, rising precious metals reflect investors' worries.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The mighty have stumbled and the meek have inherited the Earth. Something like that happened this week in the $1.5-trillion-a-day currency market, which hammered the U.S. dollar, one of the most-clamored for assets over the years. Gold, that perennial cellar-dweller, rose to a new two-year high. Growing concern about the health of the U.S. economy relative to its overseas counterparts has hurt the dollar, which is down about 6 percent against the yen and euro this year. And two years of sinking stock prices have driven investors into tangible assets considered safe havens, like gold.

"I think what has changed is the market's outlook for the U.S. economy," said Alex Beuzelin, chief market analyst at Ruesch International. "The market is now unsure of the economy's ability to sustain its growth rate beyond the first quarter of the year."

A weaker currency brings pros and cons. It helps companies dependent on exports become more competitive since they can sell goods more cheaply in international markets. In addition, a weak dollar boosts overseas profits when those same companies convert sales abroad into U.S. currency. That's also the case for investors buying international stocks. A soft dollar boosts those returns. And strengthening overseas currencies could draw bargain-seeking tourists to U.S. shores.

But for an import-hungry country like the United States, the weak dollar makes imported goods more expensive, raising inflation. That, in turn, could suffocate the fragile economic recovery that the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, is trying to engineer.

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill inadvertently waded into the currency market this week. In remarks to Congress Wednesday, he said the Treasury Department's official support for a strong dollar has not changed. But he also signaled doubts about the effectiveness of government moves to support the currency, suggesting the United States won't try to stop the dollar's recent slide by stepping into international currency markets to buy dollars. Such moves are always risky because government purchases can be ineffective given the huge amounts of currencies traded daily by banks, insurers, companies and other institutions.

As for gold, it touched $312 an ounce this week, the highest since February, 2000. The gains come as investors seek alternatives to stocks. The Standard & Poor's index of 500 largest companies is down about 6 percent this year following two annual losses as Corporate America suffers its worst profit slump in more than 30 years.

Black Blade: The need to hold Gold is ever more important as the USD falls precipitously. It will deteriorate further as the next energy crisis looms on the horizon. The state of California is toying with yet another fuel standard that will raise the costs of energy. Rising energy costs drop straight to the bottom line. Look for a new energy crisis late this year to late spring of next year and energy supply is consumed with little replenishment of reserves. As always, get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities program. Best be prepared that to leech off of others should disaster (economic or natural) hit home. We insure for all manner of calamity and yet there are those foolish people who argue that we should be exposed to other dangers. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. There is no downside to being prepared.

sector

(05/03/2002; 20:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74882)

Who are the Fed?

Judge them by their acts.

In July, 1994 Warren Christopher [Executive Branch SECSTATE] gave Alan Greenspan a letter that authorized him to take two board seats on the Bank of International Settlements [A private corporation]. No other person in US government is allowed to hold such a board seat, let alone make interest rate policy that benefits the private BIS...a flat conflict of interest. The BIS controls vast amounts of gold. The Executive Branch cannot grant to itself powers not granted to it by the Constitution.

A scheme to manipulate gold ensued. It was designed to inflate multiple bubbles and ultimately dollarize the world. In June, 1996 an orgy of US reserves gold selling broke the back of the world gold market, thus smashing the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. Numerous gold carry trades developed profiting many Wall Street banks who are the United States Federal Reserve system.

All the Fed board members knew this...they all approved it by their continued service. They knew the effect on third world nations, they knew there would be collateral damage to real, human victims. Clinton's "I feel your pain" speech from the gangway of his Boeing 747 ranks as supreme hypocrisy...HE drove home the blade of economic ruin in Johannesburg.

The United States Federal Reserve system took, under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, a course of action they knew to be immoral. They decided that the US could not grow in a free market system...that the US could no longer compete on the world economic stage without a rigged system. They did not ask congress, industry or anyone else.

The academic basis for this ideology of corruption was written by Lawrence Summers in 1988 and published in the Journal of Political Economy [Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard]. Robert Rubin front ran the needed interference to fully implement GoldGate.

The massive interest rate derivative book held by JPM was given birth within days of the June 1996 COMEX gold selling orgy...from near zero to a peak of $20 Trillion dollars. Now drastically cut to $16 Trillion presumably in fear of the coming gold rise "disaster".

Incredibly, the entire edifice of the mid and late 90s US economic boom was constructed on the premise of a manipulated gold price. All of it. The tech bubble, the real estate and especially credit bubbles. Many analysts have stopped short of the truth preferring to be impressed by the sheer size of the various financial "structures".

The COMEX gold market rigging had almost nothing to do with trading commodities and its piddling profits. It was "THE ECONOMY STUPID" on steroids.

Now, after the bubbles have started bursting we see deficits because tax receipts were bloated by the false bubbles. We see the beginnings of a true disaster...a failed scheme...a mutated monster gone wide beyond all control.

Alan Greenspan is by inspection an analytical. Their worst fears are to be criticized and they will do anything to avoid loss of face. Destroying the world's number 1 economy is loss of face so we can be absolutely positive he will have to be removed from office and will NEVER admit failure. Lawrence Lindsay is close to the President but he too has economic blood on his hands since he was a FOMC member at the critical junctures of GoldGate. We may not get distress help from him.

So the economic train wreck approaches. The Fed is low on gold to sell and is obviously managing a retrenchment tactic�.first to $310 [As we have just seen]...then to $325, then $350 and on up.

That's their game. The problem is that the spec world knows it and is marshalling all its resources to smash the FED and its cabal. When all their physical has been used up their will be no ceiling to the dollar price of gold.

When judging what the government may or may not do...keep history in mind.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 20:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 74883)

A Crumbling Earnings Foundation

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=1041646&CFTOKEN=45159887&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=714&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

Investors are slowly beginning to realize that the outlook for corporate earnings cannot come close to supporting excessive market valuations. Although March factory orders rose 0.4%, the key nondefence capital goods ex-aircraft number dropped 3.6%, indicating no rebound in corporate capital spending. Initial unemployment claims fell 10,000 to 418,000, although the prior week's claims were revised upward by 7,000. Since the recent distortions created by the extension of benefits have now worked their way through the system, the plus 400,000 figure remains quite high. Anything over 400,00 usually indicates a declining economy. In addition continuing claims continued to rise while the April Challenger report showed a renewed rise in layoff announcements after a few months of decline.

Black Blade: As one who is on the "Bone Pile" � "I fear no evil" � As I have prepared for the worst and am quite comfy. I have a good supply of nonperishable food and will be doing a lot of fishing in some high mountain lakes and streams before long. While the exposed leeches suffer under these conditions, I look at it as a vacation. I have my PM holdings regardless of what happens to the economy, I am completely out of debt, I have cash on hand, etc. I see that I now have a lot of company coming down the road as unemployment rises, and it will get much worse. I would imagine that those who are prepared such as myself are not worried, while those who are unprepared are living in fear are the pink slips are spread about the offices and the manufacturing floors. I know � it's Darwinian � but that's life. The only person you can count on is you. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

mikal

(05/03/2002; 20:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74884)

Protect yourself!

Ya wanna a collectible? I'll git ya one, make that more din one. Consider protectin yer cash with dis: USofA State quarters slabbed er raw, yer chouse. Proof Silver Eagles, certified MS-69, PCGS er NGC, yer chouse a slab. And my famleez favorit: Colorized coinz like ya ain't never seen!

TownCrier

(05/03/2002; 20:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74885)

Vision and position...

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Cockerill.htmlSometimes' times those who see farther find themselves eventually at the helm for their vision, and sometimes those at the helm see farther due to the benefits of position. And, of course, one does not end where the other begins.

With that, if may prove useful to have a look at these recent comments by new Gold Fields CEO Ian Cockerill. (see link above) (Forgive the small graphs. They are as good as I had to work with, but they are better than the text-only format I've had provided here since Wednesday. --Randy)

Excerpts:
--------
Today I want to talk about a few of the myths about the gold industry, but in the process I would like to give you my perspective of reality as I see it in the business today.

...During March 2001 there was a turning point in the price of gold. What you see from here on out is a gold price coincidently testing new highs and concomitantly creating higher lows.

We are seeing a new trading channel, with a general upwards trend, developing. In my opinion, this is a systemic response to the increasing risk profile of the world. Over this period we have seen an upsurge in interest in gold from retail investors, especially in Japan and Germany as well as institutional investors world-wide.

...If we are living in an era of renewed interest in gold as a reserve asset and, if new mine supply and reserves are indeed going to decline as rapidly as I am presenting to you, where are we going to get the gold from?

At Gold Fields we track approximately 90% of all gold hedge books around the world on an ongoing basis. Let me give you an insight into some of the conclusions that we have reached:

** With currency movements over the past 6 to 12 months, and at the current gold price and exchange rates, a significant proportion of global hedge books are under water for the next few years;

** At a gold price of US$312 per ounce and at current exchange rates, the non-US gold book goes underwater. This is exacerbated for some producers by currency hedges that are also under water;

** Ironically, at higher gold prices some balance sheets start to deteriorate rapidly, owing to the marked to market values of their hedge books. You might argue that being "margin-free" ameliorates the situation; then again, the Bankers may not.

What this demonstrates is that there is no free lunch. The hedging of previous years is now coming home to roost and companies who have pawned the family gold, may have to face serious challenges and tough questions from shareholders.

But it is not only the hedged producers who are facing the music. At levels above US$312 gold price, the entire hedging food chain is at risk, including the bullion banks.

I think it is fair to say that, in this scenario one should not expect any Bullion Bank or Central Bank to extend to a producer with a hedge-impaired balance sheet, the luxury of even more hedges. One knows that the hedging game is over when the Bullion Banks start to get out of the business, as we have seen recently.

.....If everything that I have said today turns out to be reality rather than myth, then the Gold Industry has a very interesting time ahead of it.

...Ladies and Gentlemen, I believe that the gold market is about to experience a renaissance. As an industry we should join together to promote to investors, consumers and central banks alike, a compelling case for gold.
---------

Very good stuff! Be sure to read it all.

R.

Cavan Man

(05/03/2002; 21:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74886)

Hey PH....

Great point! However, I personally think confiscation is likely; at some point anyway. What's different today vs the post London Gold Pool gang is the gold market is really screwed up badly with derivatives. Further, let's not forget about the IRD's. What a mess. Caution my friend.

Your old nemesis....CM

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 21:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74887)

Ruling Could Delay Wyo. Gas Exploration

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11959-2002Apr30.html
Snippit:

Oil and gas interests are reviewing an Interior Department administrative ruling that could potentially delay President Bush's plan to expand coal-bed methane gas exploration on 4 million acres of Wyoming's Powder River Basin before they decide on what steps, if any, they can take. Environmentalists say they believe Friday's ruling sets a precedent that could be applied if they decide to sue to invalidate the current gas leases. "That could throw this whole project off by years if all the leases have to be redone," said Tom Darin, attorney with the Wyoming Outdoor Council.

Black Blade: One more step toward the next energy crisis.

Sierra Madre

(05/03/2002; 21:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74888)

Miner49er: your post this morning No. 74821

About Mahathir: the man is ahead of all other Presidents and Premiers in the world, because he is at least TALKING about gold and silver. Trouble is, the world has been adrift for so long, the old system has been forgotten and no one living remembers exactly how it was set up. So he and his advisers are quite likely to make serious mistakes. Of course, the news reports are tantalizingly vague, and that doesn't help our speculations.

The image of that H G Wells film, I believe it was "The Shape of Things to Come" - ominous title!- comes to mind, where an insignificant despot clothed in fur wants to coerce a young "New Age" pilot who falls into his hands, into getting his old, broken down biplane into working condition. A most interesting film, quite apropos for the present times, by the way. From the 30's. Technology is part of a system, when the system evaporates, so does the technology. Thus, there is no return possible. We're "Outward Bound".

Once a system as complex as the international monetary system of yore has been destroyed, it appears to me that any reconstruction is out of the question. These things are the product of true "Evolution" and take centuries to build up. In politics, there is no such thing as "Reform" or "Return to Constitutional Government".

Destroying an ultra-complex system is like cutting down a giant Redwood. Once it's down, that's it. You no longer have a huge tree, you just have lumber. And you won't have another giant for centuries.

I think that the dollar will HAVE to persist for much longer than we visualize, because there is nothing else, at present. The Euro? Yes, but...what would a real, savage War in the Middle East do to Europe? No oil...kaput!

It is my feeling that the dollar is going to go down the tubes rather quickly, but, it will still be used. It has to be used. The system will be progressively weaker, with more and more patches and stitches, currency exchange controls(?) and other makeshifts. The downfall will be in relatively slow motion (fast in historical terms).

At the end of the road, nations will have to take stock of what to do, on their own. The master, USA, can no longer hold the fort. (The Legions are called back to Rome). Utter chaos will prevail. International trade will stagnate, and
finally, there will be no more beating about the bush. You have gold, you buy our goods. No gold, no goods. Very simple. Or "vely simple".

At that point, the hundred and some odd fiat currencies of the world will compete in devaluations, and some currencies will devalue far more than others, until a new relative status emerges. The more productive nations devalue less, the less productive devalue more.

The way things will turn out will seem obviously necessary when we get to see them happen. Think "simple"! Think "stupid"!

Sorry I can't address the much deeper thinking contained in your interesting post; I must confess it is over my head most of the time. (I'm slow on the uptake).

Some anecdotal comments:

Visiting Houston these days. Commerce SEEMS very slow - is it just me? Tax base on my Texas home went up from $76,000 to $141,000. Hmmmm....it's not going to kill me, but what about the neighbors? Losses on the S.M. or no gains, and taxes go way up? "In a word, GRIM". I've heard that somewhere before...

And lastly: I read where Charlemagne (crowned Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire at Christmas, A.D.800) carried out the most important monetary reform in the history of Europe. Let's see, that was 1,200 years ago, and we haven't seen his like again, yet. Things are not going to be fixed up any time soon.

Maybe we should begin to think seriously about: IN GOD WE TRUST.

Thanks to all for patience in reading.

Sierra

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 21:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 74889)

World energy crunch worsening

http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/Science_Nature/0,1113,2-13-46_1176658,00.html
Snippit:

Detroit - As the world's appetite for energy grows, the challenge for all nations will be ensuring that supplies of oil and gas, and the infrastructure needed to transport these fuels, remain stable and secure, US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said.

Black Blade: It's already a done deal. Expect to see the energy crunch get worse with tightening supply.

Cavan Man

(05/03/2002; 22:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74890)

Sierra Madre

Russia sell oil in Europe. Though the dollar settles the trade, a small amount of Euro in tandem completes the bargain.

PS: Charlemagne was overrated. In that age, Irish monaastics played a much more vital role in the evolution of the west. Cheers.....CM

Golden Bear

(05/03/2002; 22:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74891)

A must read for those who value liberty and justice!

http://educate-yourself.org/ronpaultruthfulness26apr02.html
Congressman Ron Paul's TV Gaffe
By Congressman Ron Paul - House of Representatives

�The other day,� I made a huge "gaffe" on national TV: I told the truth about the crimes of the U.S. government. As you can imagine, the ceiling fell in, and a couple of walls too. Congressman are supposed to support the government, I was� told. Oh, it's okay to criticize around the edges, but there are certain subjects a member of the House of Representatives is not supposed to bring up. But I touched the real "third-rail" of American politics, and the sparks sure flew.

�I was interviewed on C-SPAN's morning "Washington Journal," and I used the opportunity, as I do all such media appearances, to point out how many of our liberties have been stolen by the federal government. We must take them back. The Constitution, after all, has a very limited role for Washington, D.C.

�If we stuck to the Constitution as written, we would have: no federal meddling in our schools; no Federal Reserve; no U.S. membership in the UN; no gun control; and no foreign aid. We would have no welfare for big corporations, or the "poor"; no American troops in 100 foreign countries; no Nafta, Gatt, or "fast-track"; no arrogant federal judges usurping states rights; no attacks on private property; and no income tax. We could get rid of most of the cabinet departments, most of the agencies, and most of the budget. The government would be small, frugal, and limited.

That system is called liberty. It's what the Founding Fathers gave us. Under liberty, we built the greatest, freest, most prosperous, most decent country on earth. It's no coincidence that the monstrous growth of the federal government has been accompanied by a sickening decline in living standards and moral standards. The feds want us to be hamsters on a�� treadmill--working hard, all day long, to pay high taxes, but otherwise entirely docile and controlled. The huge, expensive, and out-of-control leviathan that we call the federal government wants to run every single aspect of our lives.

�Well, I'm sorry, but that's not America. It's not what the Founders gave us. It's not the country you believe in. It's not the� country I believe in. So, on that TV interview, I emphasized not only the attacks on our property, but also the decline of our civil liberties, at the hands of the federal police. There are not supposed to be any federal police, according to the Constitution.

Then I really went over the line. I talked about the Waco massacre. Bill Clinton and Janet Reno claim those 81 church members, including 19 children, burned down their own church and killed themselves, and good riddance. So they put few survivors on trial, and threw them in prison for 40 years.

We're not supposed to remember that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms--talk about an unconstitutional agency--rather than arrest David Koresh on his regular morning jog, called in the TV stations for big publicity bonanza, and sent a swat team in black masks and black uniforms to break down his front door, guns blazing. They also sent in a helicopter gunship, to shoot at the roof of a church full of innocents.

The Branch Davidians resisted, and after a heartless siege of almost two months, and after cutting off food, water, and electricity, and playing horrible rock and roll through huge speakers 24 hours a day, the feds sent in the tanks to crush the walls of the church, and inject poisonous CS gas. Now, CS gas is banned under the Paris Convention on Chemical Warfare. The U.S. could not use it in a war. But it could and did use it against American civilians.

�After the tanks did their work on the church, the place burst into flame, and all 81 people--men, women, children, and babies - were incinerated in a screaming horror. Did some feds set the fire? Did the flammable CS gas ignite, since without electricity,� the parishioners were using lanterns? Did a tank knock over a lantern, striking one of the bales of hay being used against the� thin walls as a "defense" against bullets? Or did the Davidians, as Clinton and Reno claim, kill themselves?

�A new documentary- -Waco: The Rules of Engagement- may show, through FLIR infrared photography, FBI snipers killing the Davidians by shooting through the back of the church, where no media cameras were allowed. This film won a prize at the famed Sundance Film Festival. It was made by people who took the government's side, until they investigated.

Whatever the truth, there's no question that an irresponsible federal government has innocent blood on its hands, and not only from Waco. And the refusal of corrupt and perverse liberals to admit it means nothing.

�In my r~interview, in answer to a caller's question, I pointed out that Waco, and the federal murders at Ruby Ridge- especially the FBI sniper's shot that blasted apart the head of a young mother holding her baby- caused many Americans to live in fear of federal power. Then I uttered the sentiment that caused the media hysteria: I said that a lot of Americans fear that they too might be attacked by federal swat teams for exercising their constitutional rights, or merely for wanting to be left alone.

�Whoa! You've never seen anything like it. For days, in an all-out assault, I was attacked by Democrats, unions, big business, establishment Republicans, and- of course- the media, in Washington and my home state of Texas. Newspapers foamed at the mouth, calling me a "right-wing extremist." (Say, isn't that what George III called Thomas Jefferson?)

I was even blamed for the Oklahoma City bombing! And by the way, I don't believe we've gotten the full truth on that either. All my many opponents were outraged that a Congressman would criticize big government. "If you don't like Washington, resign!" said a typical big-city newspaper editorial.

But the media, as usual, were all wet. (Do they ever get anything right?) The average Congressman may go to Washington to wallow in power, and line his pockets with a big lobbying job for a special interest (so he can keep ripping-off the taxpayers). But that's not why I'm in Congress. It's not why I left my medical practice as a physician. It's not why I put up with all the abuse. It's not why I refuse a plush Congressional pension.

�I'm in this fight for a reason. I want to hand on to my children and grandchildren, and to you and your family, a great and free America, an America true to her Constitution, an America worthy of her history. I will not let the crooks and clowns and criminals have their way. I'm in Congress to represent the ideas of liberty, the ideas that you and I share, for the people of my district, for the people of Texas, for the people of America. That's why I'm working to stop federal abuses, and to cut the government: its taxes, its bureaucrats, its paramilitary police, its spending, its meddling overseas, and every single unconstitutional action it takes. And not with a pair of nail scissors, but with a hammer and chisel. Won't you help me do this work?

Not much of the federal leviathan would be left, if I had my way. But you'd be able to keep the money you earn, your privacy� would be secure, your dollar would be sound, your local school would be tops, and your kids wouldn't be sent off to some useless or vicious foreign war to fight for the UN. But Jefferson and the other Founders would recognize our government, and our descendants would bless us. By the way, when I say cut taxes, I don't mean fiddle with the code. I mean abolish the income tax and the IRS, and replace them with nothing.

�Recently, I asked a famous Republican committee chairman-who's always talking about getting rid of IRS- why he engineered a secret $580 million raise for the tax collectors. "They need it for their computers," this guy told me. So the IRS can't extract enough from us as it is! The National Taxpayers Union says I have the highest pro-taxpayer rating in Congressional history, that I am the top "Taxpayer's Best Friend." You know I won't play the Capitol Hill games with the Capitol Hill gang, denouncing the IRS while giving the Gestapo more of your money. Or figuring out some other federal tax for them to squeeze out of you. I also want to abolish the Federal Reserve, and send Alan Greenspan out to get a job.

�The value of our dollar and the level of our interest rates are not supposed to be manipulated by a few members of the power elite meeting secretly in a marble palace. The Federal Reserve is unconstitutional, pure and simple. The only Constitutional money is gold and silver, not notes redeemable in them. Not fed funny money. Without the Federal Reserve, our money could not be inflated at the behest of big government or big banks. Your income and savings would not lose their value. Just as important, we wouldn't have this endless string of booms and busts, recessions and depressions, with each bust getting worse. They aren't natural to the free market; they're caused by the schemers at the Fed. President Andrew Jackson called the 19th-century Fed "The Monster" because it was a vehicle for inflation and all sorts of special-interest corruption. Let me tell you, things haven't changed a bit. I also work to save our schools from D.C. interference. Thanks to the feds, new curriculums not only smear the Founders as "racist, slave-owning elitists," they seek to dumb down our students so they will all be equal. "Look-say" reading and the abolition of phonics has the same purpose, and so does the new "fuzzy" math, in which there are no right and no wrong answers. That must be what they use in the U.S. Treasury! It's certainly what they use in the U.S. Congress.

�But ever since the beginning of federal aid to education and accelerating with the establishment of the rotten Department of Education, SAT scores have been dropping. Schools, with few exceptions, are getting worse every year. To save our kids, we must get the sticky fingers of the feds off our local schools, and let parents rule. That's what the Constitution says, and the Bible too.

And then there's my least favorite topic, the UN. World government is obviously unconstitutional. It undermines our country's sovereignty in the worst way possible. That's why I want us out of the UN, and the UN itself taking a hike. After all, the UN is socialist and corrupt (many votes can be bought with a "blonde and a case of scotch," one UN ambassador once said). It costs many billions, and it puts our soldiers in UN uniforms under foreign commanders, and sends them off to unconstitutional, undeclared wars. When Michael New, one of the finest young men I've ever met, objected to wearing UN blue, he was kicked out of the American Army. What an outrage! Not one dime for the UN, and not one American soldier! Not in Haiti, not in Bosnia, not in Somalia, not in Rwanda. I know its radical, but how about devoting American military efforts to defending America, and only America?

Such ideas, said one newspaper reporter, make me a maverick who will never go far because he won't go along to get along. Darn right! What does "go far" mean? Get a big government job? To heck with that. And I won't sell my vote for pork either. When I walked through the U.S. Capitol this morning, I got angry. The building is filled with statues and painting of Jefferson, Madison, and the other Founders. Those great men sacrificed everything to give us a free country, and a Constitution to keep it that way. When I was first elected, I placed my hand on the Bible and swore an oath to uphold the Constitution. That's exactly what I'm fighting for. But such ideas drive the liberals crazy. That's why I badly need your help. I've been targeted nationally for defeat. The Democrats, the AFL-CIO, the teachers union, big business PACs, the trial lawyers, the big bankers, the foreign-aid lobbyists, the big media, and the establishment Republicans want to dance on my political grave. The Fed, the Education Department, and the UN are anxious to join in. They can't stand even one person telling the truth. And they're terrified when that truth gains the people's support.

The Traveler

(05/03/2002; 22:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74892)

The Ongoing Currency Wars

Just a few quick thoughts.

First consider the many legal precendents already in place.

Should America be in imminent danger of losing its reserve currency status and the "exhobitant privledge" that trades paper dollars for real goods made abroad (read: What? You want us to pay as we go?), do you not think your Uncle will go to ANY lenghths to defend the US$? Progressively trampling the rights of less than 1/10th of 1% of the electorate will be seen as a small price to pay for the vaunted American way of life? Think of this as a delaying tactic in the defeat to come.

Next, can you logically dismiss the above if you believe in the existance of the Plunge Protection Team or the Gold Cartel that GATA fights resolutely?

To confiscate Yahoo or any other high flying paper in the absensce of a national crisis is ludicrous. First it would effect to many of the electotorate and second - Who wants more paper? But all sellers paid taxes on their YAHOO gains.

Second, BUY all the physical gold your understanding permits. However, unless you are prepared to hold gold for generations, you also need to consider how you will eventually reap your NET rewards.

Time reveals all mysteries.

Best regards,

The Traveler

Mr Gresham

(05/03/2002; 23:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74893)

Golden Bear -- Thanks!

Damn! I'm gonna make the liberal side of me (what's left of it) write a check to help keep Ron Paul in office.

Black Blade

(05/03/2002; 23:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74894)

Mailbox bomb letter text

http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/05/03/pipebomb.letter/index.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The following is the wording of a letter found with a pipe bomb in a mailbox in Scott County, Iowa. It is not known if it matches letters connected to other mailbox pipe bombs:

Black Blade: Now there's another nutcase on the loose dropping pipe bombs into mailboxes. We still don't have the guy mailing Anthrax either. Quite a strange letter too.

Waverider

(05/04/2002; 01:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74895)

MZM Growth Plummets

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/mzm.htmSnippit:
"All throughout 2001 the rate of growth in the crucial MZM money supply was rocketing northward. The year-over-year MZM growth rate exploded from 7.7% at the dawn of 2001 to an almost unbelievable 22.0% in early December 2001!

Even though today the rate of growth of MZM is finally plunging from December's stratospheric heights, MZM is still growing far faster than it has in recent history. Over the past 20 years the average US MZM growth rate has been 9.4%, seemingly quite high in light of US economic growth but still low compared to the latest weekly MZM year-over-year growth reading of 13.1%."

Waverider: Following a review of the seven primary daily datapoints for current financial events, Adam Hamilton provides an overview of money growth trends and economic implications thereof. A good read!

Also, a BIG thank you to each and every poster here. I've been away on business and have particularly appreciated accessing cutting-edge information just by scanning the forum. Kudos to everyone for your great work.

Topaz

(05/04/2002; 05:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74896)

Towny re: Cockerill

Randy, it's as if Mr C has been reading/posting here for several years - all good stuff EXCEPT the industry sponsored "certificates".
I don't doubt his good intentions but the entire article could be viewed as touting soon to be announced Industrial Gold paper as a primary driver of higher POG... I hope he's right and we sail off into the sunset under a steadily increasing paper Gold price to live happily ever after......but imho, it aint gonna happen!

Hipplebeck

(05/04/2002; 06:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74897)

(No Subject)

I have been struck lately that the way the economy works these days reminds me of that bridge in Washington some years back that got into harmonic resonance because of the wind and tore itself to pieces.
I believe a slower and stable rate of growth through the gold standard would solve this, but it is very hard to be patient with slower growth.
I sometimes wonder of mankind itself will ever become mature enough to solve these social problems.

Hipplebeck

(05/04/2002; 07:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74898)

gold

It is natural that gold be the instrument that destroys the present paper system.
It is it's role. It has done so over and over through out history.
Can The New World Order boys pull victory from defeat?
I don't think the've got a chance, but I am sure they are going to make everyone suffer.
The world is becoming more polarized, not more consolidated.
Economic power is shifting east.

mikal

(05/04/2002; 08:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 74899)

@Hipplebeck

Appreciate your observations. I agree that the world is polarizing in some ways. Politically and economically. But it seems to be a fallout stage in a cycle of great change, with a positive outcome essential for survival and progress. There are increasing competitive trade barriers, subsidies, and tariffs/duties on imports, currency devaluations, repatriation of investment dollars, foreign policy stalemates, unilateral wars on "terrorists", etc. Solutions will appear from every direction, some new, some old. But the world's common interests are revealed and improved by the internet, cultural and scholarly exchanges, and coexistence in the face of human and environmental mismanagement, hatred, and an overgrown military/industrial complex.

mikal

(05/04/2002; 08:35:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74900)

Gold's role

Another way in which the world's common interests are revealed and improved- Gold. Its growing, visible place as a wealth preserver from Europe to Russia with its Chervonet and trade coins back in circulation, China and its exchanges, central bank purchases, and age-old investment demand, India, Far East, Middle East (Near East) to Latin America, Africa, North America, Australia, and all Islands and points between. A renassaince of gold and its reputation would naturally benefit the people of the euro, dollar, dinar, ruble, yuan, yen, rand, peso, etc.

Econoclast

(05/04/2002; 09:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74901)

Great Postings by everyone yesterday!

Thanks so much to everyone involved.
USAGold is "the place to be".
Have a Golden Day!

Cavan Man

(05/04/2002; 09:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74902)

Note comment about Yen

Top Financial News

05/04 11:07
Dollar's 6 1/2-Month Low May Spur Hedging: Currency Outlook
By Geraldine Ryerson-Cruz

New York, May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's drop to a 6 1/2- month low signals it's time for foreign investors in U.S. securities to hedge against more losses in the currency, say strategists at Merrill Lynch & Co.

Mounting evidence that a recovery is losing pace in the world's largest economy has cooled demand for U.S. assets and pushed the dollar down for five weeks against the euro, the longest slide in almost nine months. The dollar fell to its weakest level since Oct. 10 at 91.78 U.S. cents per euro.

The decline is probably the start of an extended drop in the dollar's value, and poses a ``risk to foreign holders of U.S. bonds'' in particular, said Thomas Sowanick, chief global fixed- income strategist at Merrill Lynch, the world's biggest securities firm by capital. He recommends placing hedges against a 5 percent decline in the dollar.

The U.S. currency has already lost 5 percent of its value against the euro and 4.3 percent against the yen this quarter. While most U.S. Treasuries climbed this week, yields on the benchmark 10-year note are at 5.06 percent, lower than 10-year German bonds, which yield 5.12 percent.

``If money just stops coming into the U.S. it would be very negative for the dollar, as well as for the financial markets,'' Sowanick said. Fixed-income investors are ``looking at alternatives away from the U.S. and starting to sharpen their pencils, whereas the currency managers are already starting to'' sell dollars in anticipation of further declines, he said.

U.S. Employment

The currency also fell a fifth week in six against the yen, to its lowest level since March 7 at 126.86 yen per dollar. Against an index of the euro, yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar sank to its lowest level since mid-October.

The dollar's losses accelerated after the government said the U.S. unemployment rate reached a 7 1/2-year high of 6 percent in April, adding to evidence an economic rebound may be slower than projected. Separate reports showed declines in consumer confidence and weaker-than-expected manufacturing.

Although a government report Monday showed U.S. gross domestic product gained at a 5.8 percent rate in the first quarter, growth will likely taper to a 2.5 percent rate for the year, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

That would put the U.S. growth rate closer to the dozen- nation euro economy, which the OECD estimates will grow 1.8 percent this year.

German Strike

``People are starting to have doubts about the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global recovery, and that's hurting the dollar,'' said Larry Kantor, head of global foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank. ``Right now there's significant momentum to sell the dollar.''

Two of the three major U.S. stock indexes fell this week, taking the Nasdaq Composite Index 3 percent lower following a 7.4 percent drop the previous week.

``The combination of a weak economy, U.S. asset markets not performing very well and the Federal Reserve on the sidelines is a bad recipe for the dollar,'' Kantor said. Still, J.P. Morgan isn't changing its forecasts -- for 90 cents per euro and 127 yen by the end of the month -- until there are more economic statistics to confirm growth is ebbing.

An expected strike next week by Germany's second-largest labor union, IG Metall, may fuel concern about prospects for economic recovery in Europe and damp some demand for its currency, economists said.

Too Fast?

Some traders and analysts said the dollar may pause from its losing streak against the euro in coming days as one measure of the currency's weakness, the relative strength index, signals dollar sales won't maintain their recent pace.

The index calculates the degree daily losses outpace daily gains in order to identify possible turning points in a currency's price. The dollar-euro exchange rate fell to 25.53 on the index, its lowest since the euro began trading in January 1999. Readings between 20 and 30 imply the momentum of the currency's decline will stall, according to analysts.

In another indication expectations may have overshot the need to sell dollars, speculators have amassed a record amount of futures bets that the currency will fall further. That means fewer speculative traders are left to sell dollars.

Record Bets

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission shows speculators held 31,472 long euro futures contracts in the week ended April 30. Those contracts would gain in value as the dollar declines.

Some traders also said declines against the yen will subside because Japanese officials may step in to weaken their currency. Japan's authorities have encouraged a weaker yen to boost profits exporters earn on overseas sales, as the country struggles to emerge from its worst post-war recession, analysts said.

Mazda Motor Corp., which exports two-thirds of its products, in April said it gained 32.5 billion yen more in the fiscal year ended March 31 than the previous year, because the yen was on average 13 percent weaker against the dollar.

Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said Thursday that while there was no change in currency policy, Japan will watch foreign-exchange markets closely.

``There is no need for the yen to strengthen,'' said Kuroda, according to Nikkei English News.

Cavan Man

(05/04/2002; 09:56:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74903)

Captain your own vessel.

Top Financial News

05/04 10:44
Treasuries Maturing in 5 Years or More May Fall: Bond Outlook
By Vivianne Rodrigues

New York, May 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries maturing in five years or more may fall next week as the biggest quarterly government debt auction since 1999 swells the supply of the notes.

The Treasury plans to sell $22 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday and $11 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, part of an increase in sales needed to finance the first budget deficit in five years.

``The weak state of the government's finances shows that borrowing is set to soar,'' said Chris Rupkey, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitusbishi Ltd. The additional debt supply may ``help push Treasury prices down.''

Analysts say the Federal Reserve will indicate at a policy meeting Tuesday that it doesn't plan to raise interest rates for several months, sparking gains in notes maturing in two years.

The 3 1/2 percent note maturing in 2006 gained for the fifth week in six this week, trimming its yield 1 basis point to 4.36 percent. Its yield has fallen 46 basis points since March 22 as investors have pared bets on the Fed raising rates in the next few months. The 4 7/8 percent note maturing in February 2012 was little changed this week, leaving its yield at 5.06 percent.

Analysts expect the Fed next week to say the country's economic recovery remains fragile, indicating it won't start reversing last year's rate rises until the second half of the year. The Fed will leave the benchmark overnight rate at its 40- year low of 1.75 percent at Tuesday's meeting, according to all 20 primary dealers, banks that trade with the Fed, surveyed by Bloomberg News.

`No Way'

``There's no way the Fed will start rising interest rates as long as unemployment remains high,'' said David Kotok, who manages about $500 million in bonds at Cumberland Advisors Inc., in Vineland, New Jersey. ``Investors will have to keep in mind that short-term interest rates will be very low for the remainder of this year and that inflation is next year's problem.''

A government report this week showed the jobless rate rose to a seven-year high of 6 percent in April, fueling a rally in two- year notes, as the recovery prompted people to enter the labor force in search of work.

The 3 3/8 percent note due April 2004 -- the most sensitive to Fed rate changes -- gained 1/8 Friday to 100 13/32, cutting its yield 6 basis points to 3.15 percent, its lowest since Feb. 28.

``If the Fed delays raising interest rates until August, short-term and intermediate Treasuries will have a good breather,'' said Mike Mullaney, who manages $2 billion in government and corporate bonds at Fiduciary Trust Co.

Economic Reports

The yield on the August federal funds futures contract, a gauge of expectations for the average overnight rate for that month, fell 6 basis points Friday to 1.885 percent. That's 1.5 basis points below the level that suggests traders fully expect a quarter-point increase at the Fed's Aug. 13 meeting.

Economic reports next week are expected to show inflation, running at an annual 1.5 percent, will remain tame.

The Labor Department is expected to report productivity in the U.S. grew at a faster pace in the first quarter, a sign the economy has room to recover without triggering higher prices. The Labor Department's measure of how much work an employee performs in an hour probably rose at a 7 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, compared with a 5.2 percent rate in the last quarter of 2002, according to those surveyed.

On Friday, the Labor Department is also expected to say prices paid to U.S. factories, farmers and other producers rose 0.4 percent in April, down from a 1 percent increase in March.

``Inflation is nowhere to be seen and I doubt it will be a serious problem this year,'' said Anthony Karydakis, senior economist at Banc One Capital Markets Inc. ``The manufacturing sector is under pressure to keep costs down and with productivity at such high levels, it will take some time until we see prices really picking up.''

Mr Gresham

(05/04/2002; 11:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74904)

I-Bonds and Savings

http://www.savingsbond.gov/sav/sbirate2.htmSavers get another kick in the rump. I-Bond rates have fallen from nearly 6% a year ago, and 4.15 (I think it was) during the past 6 months, to 2.57% now. Oh yes, inflation (at .56%) has been vanquished; you needn't worry, says the keeper of the gov stats. (snarf, snarf)

From all sides, savers are being funneled and driven toward they-know-not-what destination. Anyone got a clue, for those-who-would-be-savers?

Most of the time, maybe even most of one's lifetime, one seeks out productive or growing asset vehicles, denominated in the reliable currency of the time. Most of the time.

Then there is a point in the cycle where one's aspirations must pull back -- both from the vehicles and the currency medium -- and await the implosion of both.

I don't spit into the wind, and I don't paddle my canoe up the rapids. And once I figure out which way the tide is going, I'm on it.

YGM

(05/04/2002; 11:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74905)

Malaysia & Gold Dinar....

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2002/5/2/business/din1≠wspage=SearchThis could very well signal an end to US dollar hedgemony, especially when one considers the ramification for OIL if all Islamic nations follow suit and do business in Gold backed Dinars.....Gold backed paper or 'Airy Nothing'.... Chances are we'd see gov't intervention over Western citizens aquiring banking services in Islamic Banks alot faster than we'd see any Gold Confiscation of private hoards.....

compwiz4u

(05/04/2002; 12:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 74906)

Parabolic Move

I think Gold's starting to go parabolic.
The corrections are short and the rebounds powerful, while the trendlines are getting steeper.

Friday' surge was a killer as it just blew through resistance.

$325 Gold isn't that far away now.

If we hit it by the end of May, it'll really show that we're accelerating.
If that occurs, then I'd say we could see $350-400 in short order.

A bullish Barron's interview today with Price Headley supports my view. Headley has a new technical tool called an "Acceleration Band," which spots big parabolic moves. He recommends GOLD(GFI), AEM & NEM in that order.

He says, "If Gold holds above $300, there's potential for a real explosion up."

We're there now, so enjoy the ride as this could be fun.

Black Blade

(05/04/2002; 15:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 74907)

Gold expected to rise to US$320 this month

http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20020504/119952.html
Snippit:

"The increased buying of gold in Japan has raised the visibility of gold as an investment," said Brian Kennedy, president and chief executive of Meridian Gold Inc., a Reno, Nev.-based gold miner. Gold will probably climb to "at least US$320" this month, said Tim Mercer, general manager of Clinton Properties, a Hong Kong investment management firm.

Black Blade: Sounds good.

Nice day so far - Off to fish for another limit.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/04/2002; 15:27:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74908)

Almost no one's charts go back to 1979............................

A interesting scenario is setting up. Tom Calandra is beginning to hype gold but to say the metal should eclipse the shares in the next move. (technically correct but a little premature). The metal will outperform the shares eventually because of the greed of the mining companies with their interest to issue more shares and dilute their floats (# of outstanding shares). Hey, what is paper to do, but act like paper. First it goes up then it goes sideways and down. ECO and NEM ARE ISSUING more stock right now. Sure looks good at $29.95. Sort of lousy performance for an unhedged major miner wouldn't you say? Major miner and minor midget means nothing. What matters is supply and demand. Unlimited supply means the rallies are rigged. They let it come up when they want it to. So expect the same thing to hit the others eventually. "Yes, we will get more reserves"........they will issue more shares and pay too much for reserves just to look good on paper. It's a paper game. The bank in the monopoly game has unlimited funds. ALL paper games have rules the players use against the house but seem to catch the masses. Perception becomes reality in the mania-matic papergold world. The small traders scared themselves into the shares on Friday while relieving all the underwater positions of everyone else. Now they are all bought in with goldfunds seeking to take some early profits off the table. To the average proficient chartist the looks of an overextension are apparent. The cabal has only one card left to play. They will attack the shares and attempt to "teach these defectors a lesson". The short attack already started and will continue until the leading issues get knocked down. (I suspect) Then once the initial setback occurs, they'll cover with the panicked longs fodder. Then the next wave of shorters are the ones to get trapped. The most important thing for the next rally is to have shorts trapped overnight with major news hitting afterhours. "Those who observe lying vanities forsake their own mercy." And the greed of men was terrible in those days.
The more they fall back, the better. We need shorts to get shorter on the Comex and in the shares. I fully believe this will happen because the shorter's mentality has been so well reinforced from profits from the falling Nasdaq. The lemmings are all in short mode and it would make no sense to go long with extended patterns like we have in the shares.

"General Custer.......you go down there!" But what our reverse barometer scout said was the simple truth. He will go down there shorting into his own slaughter.

Like Pavlovs dogs after puppy chow being captured for financial experimentation.

The whole rally is only 1/4 to 1/3 over. Tom Calandra already has shorting recommendations out on Barrick and Placer. The bulldozing over the longs at these high levels will continue and then after they hit the main gas line its all going to blow up.

The national debt with a falling dollar and falling tax revenues with a trade deficit that won't quit..........sounds like the summer of 79. This movie begins showing June 28.

The Chinese say put time in your favor so you can win through non-action. That is how the Russians beat the Germans in WW2, they simply let the Germans in by retreating and then let the coldness of winter wipe them out. We let the shorts in and the fundamentals are going to wipe them out. Actually we don't have a choice. If you have an extension for your snorkel you may need it if your stuff goes underwater. Just hang in there as we're all going to be looking at the fish. But when the gold shorting Egyptians are found dead on the shores the Red Sea will have already have parted. You cried before so you get to laugh. They laughed before so soon they'll cry.

Aristotle

(05/04/2002; 16:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74909)

Don't miss this one from the Globe and Mail! "Is U.S. dollar losing its currency?"

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/B/20020504/wusus?hub=businessBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory_Bus.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wusus&date=20020504&archive=RTGAM&site=Business&ad_pageHere's the flavorful beginnings of this monetary feast served up in today's paper:

---START---
The U.S. dollar, the most successful brand name in monetary history, lost yet more ground to other brands yesterday, raising questions about whether it has traded on its name too long.

It hit six-month lows against some its major competitors, notably the euro, which could someday challenge it as a world currency. This time it did not take its Canadian counterpart down with it.

In Chicago, economist Paul Kasriel noted that the dollar's popularity has allowed the United States to import and consume more than it makes and exports, and to run up almost immeasurable external debts.

"The rest of the world advances the U.S. more than $1-billion [U.S.] a day and has been doing so for some time now, and perhaps it is looking at the return that it's been getting on those advanced funds," he said an interview.
----END----

He goes on to make a good point for the benefit of the general public which is old stuff for us, pointing out a situation that is merely an extension (maybe "parallel is a better word) of the same reality faced by the bullion banks. Through this great forum we've been beating that idea into people's heads for many years now. Here's what Kasriel says, picking things up later in the article.

---START---
"In some senses, the U.S. is like a banker to the world."

There is always a danger of a run on the bank, he said, although the United States is blessed in a way that financially crippled Argentina, for example, is not.

"Argentina had a lot of debt denominated in dollars � not nearly as much, of course, as we do, but nevertheless a lot of debt. Not the only difference, but one difference,between the U.S. and Argentina is that the U.S. can print those dollars. Argentina could not."
----END----

And neither can the bullion bankers print their way out of a real run on their bullion-denominated business. The best they can do is reallocate the Gold on hand to maintain the illusion, and try to cover everything over with a blanket of paper Gold proxies to bewilder the marketplace in the hopes of buying enough time to survive the run. Much of the evolutionary history of money and banking has been driven by the marketplace (both the banking institutions and its customers together) coming to terms with the ebb and flow of runs survived and runs failed.

From the old days of local banks through to state and national banking systems, we all know where we now stand -- with an international network (Association) of bullion banking operations that are of necessity now bound together in a shared fate whose motto could easily be "All for one and one for all!" The strains of a Gold run (brought about by nothing more sinister than a continuation of the current physical demand) will either be withstood by the bullion banking system as a whole, or it will collapse them all. Like dominoes.

I think the healthiest way of looking at the 1999 "Washington Agreement" (Central Bank Agreement on Gold) is like this, but first you've got to accept the notion that "central bankers are indeed among the best and the brightest minds of the banking world." And if that is so hard for you to swallow, then I'll add this qualifier "-- insofar as the Big Picture is concerned."

The central bankers put their heads together and saw, coming down the pike -- sooner or later, the Mother of all Bank Runs -- in Gold! They knew that unless something changed, it would fall upon them to step into the breach as Lender of Last Resort. However, like Argentina, knowing that they couldn't print the necessary item, they would ultimately fail in the effort, and in the process would have succeeded only in squandering away much of the national Treasure, Gold.

The Washington Agreement is our national banking officials saying to the commercial bullion bankers, "In the interest of the financial system, we'll give a little to buy you guys out of your immediate jam, but we are also putting you on notice that this is where it ends. We have politically tied our hands in a very public way, and we won't be so easily handing over our remaining National Gold. Start concluding your operations in bullion, or face the next round of music alone, with no chairs left to sit on."

And in fact, we DO see a trend in year-over-year declines in LBMA volume, and a number of fledgling bullion operations shut down their trading desks in the wake of the warning shot served by the 1999 Central Bank Gold agreement.

I don't see how anyone could say that this is ultimately, somehow, interfering in the ongoing evolution toward a free market in Gold. (You see, we've never actually had one outside of antiquity, but by God we're getting closer!!!) Ever since Gold got dragged into the banking realm, there's been a non-stop series of legislation and regulation geared toward preventing the damage done to the System and its operators and users (that's you and me, pal) by the ever-present potential for a bank run on the Gold.

As a result, once we were well into use of the System, we (us and our political representatives) could never let the true value of Gold be exposed to the light of day. It has always been clouded over by the growing money supply made up of ledger entries that, to the layman, were "as good as Gold." Well of course they aren't. They are different. In some ways better, and in some ways worse. The modern drive toward economic efficiency being what it is -- an unstoppable commercial force within any market system -- it was inevitable that we would reach the point where we find ourselves largely today, and about to take the final conclusive step. That is, using the ledger system of notional bank money for those few uses that it does best, and using a real property system of Gold to fill the financial void where our needs for liquid Wealth Inviolate isn't met through notional money.

Surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, some child might already be heard saying, "But I WANNA use my Gold in the banking system! It's an infringement on my rights if I can't."

Look, Sonny, there need not be an artificial violation of rights, or strong-arm tactics, or whatever you want to call it for us to see the arrival one day of a Gold Market, resplendent in the utter absence of any involvement in illusory fractional banking usage. If a market gets nipped in the chin by a big dog (bullion banking), we can expect it to WILLINGLY exercise due caution in the future. Perhaps through avoidance? And if history shows that many nips haven't quite been enough incentive to keep us away from this dangerous plaything (or maybe we can only move away one step at a time), then we must at least admit that our style of interaction has in fact changed notably in many obvious ways. But to the extent that the old dog remains in striking distance, our decision not to play this way again may be made once and for all if we find to our horror one fine day that he's got our whole damned head in his maw. Once extricated, we will run fast and free, never to look back. And glad of it.

OK, enough of my banter. Here's the last bit from the article I'd like to call your attention to, in case you chose not to visit the link I've provided.

---START---
For the United States, the big question is whether foreigners will forever want to own vast numbers of dollars, both in the form of stocks, bonds, factories and real estate in the United States and the form of crumpled greenbacks in mattresses, fruit jars and black-market cash boxes everywhere else. One day, they may decide they own too many. Nobody knows how far the dollar would fall then.

"The day of reckoning is certainly coming," said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Associates LLC, a New York bond market research firm. "Like a lot of other people, I've been looking for it for quite some time."
----END----

A final note occus to me, in conclusion of my previous comments for anyone afraid of a Free Gold Market: I've yet to hear of a Rembrandt that's had its free market value stifled, somehow, because it wasn't being used as currency.

Gold. Do your part to free it from the banking system, tell a friend. And don't forget: Get you some. --- Aristotle

Golden Bear

(05/04/2002; 17:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 74910)

Excellent as always from Doug Noland

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=11330snippit:

In light of the abrupt change in dollar fortunes, the Treasury's monthly report of� "Foreign Purchases and Sales of U.S. Long-Term Securities" takes on considerable relevance. �February's report certainly makes for interesting reading.� While two months do not a trend make, February data confirms January's marked slowdown of foreign flows after the fourth-quarter's boom.� Net monthly inflows into U.S. securities averaged $53.6 billion during the fourth quarter and $42 billion for all of 2001.� For the first two months of 2002, net flows have ebbed markedly to $14.6 billion.� After being net monthly buyers of $12.7 billion Treasuries during the fourth quarter (avg. $1.5 billion buyers for 2001), foreigners have turned sellers to the tune of $8.5 billion.� During 2001, foreign-sourced purchases accounted for a monthly average of $13.8 billion of agency bonds and $19.7 billion of U.S. corporates.� So far for 2002, these average monthly inflows have dropped to $5.1 billion and $11.4 billion.� Foreigners purchased a net $2.4 billion of stocks each month last year, but have averaged only $638 million so far this year.
During the fourth quarter, the financial centers of the U.K, Japan, and the Cayman Islands combined to average $25.6 billion of monthly long-term U.S. security purchases (48% of total global purchases).� During the first two months of 2001, these flows have declined precipitously to average only $3.0 billion (21% of total).� After averaging $8.6 billion in monthly net purchases of agency bonds during the fourth quarter, January and February purchases have averaged just $270 million.� This is despite the Cayman Islands averaging about $130 billion, or 57%, of total average monthly agency trading volume.� Is there a relationship between the abrupt decline in flows from the three major financial centers and escalating corporate Credit problems?
----------------------------------------------------------
The foreigners don't like the stench of Corporate America...

Golden Bear

(05/04/2002; 17:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74911)

Just waiting for that gust of wind to blow down the American financial house of cards....

Link on previous postWhen discussing derivatives, Alan Greenspan often uses the terminology "the unbundling of risk."� Recently (April 22, 2002) he remarked, "New financial products have enabled risk to be dispersed more effectively to those willing, and presumably able, to bear it.� Shocks to the overall economic system are accordingly less likely to create cascading credit failure."� We take the exact opposite view: Derivatives and "financial engineering" generally isolate, extract, and specifically�"Bundle" risk (interest rate, Credit, currency, equity, gold, etc.).� And this is not some arcane intellectual debate, as it is our view that this "Bundling" has now set the stage for precisely the types of "cascading credit failure" and inevitable "shock to the overall economic system" that Greenspan apparently believes are "less likely."�� Despite assurances otherwise, there is no doubt that "unguarded" Credit excess has created unprecedented risk that is increasingly concentrated with the GSEs, Credit insurers, and within the murky realm of global derivative markets.� Furthermore, this "Bundling" reached new extremes last year, as financial intermediaries lent aggressively while issuing liabilities amounting to about $900 billion of new broad money supply.� There was also unprecedented growth in the Credit derivatives market.� We believe the Credit issue is now becoming critical, as recent developments have witnessed a dramatic escalation of the unfolding telecom and U.S. corporate bond market dislocation.� We see indications of a serious developing problem with the "Bundling" of Credit risk � a dislocation in the global Credit derivatives area.

slingshot

(05/04/2002; 18:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74912)

Flight to Quality

Put a Smile on your FaceJust came home from a cruise in the West Caribbean and made a stop at Conzumel. At this port of call the touristas were buying loose precious and semi precious stones, Gold and silver jewelry to the max. The stores along the waterfront were full. Five cruise ships pulled in at one time. For some there purchases would be duty free and no tax.Yes sir those GREENGO DOLLARS were moving fast. Silver one ounce rounds were going for $25.00 US. So the US Silver Eagle is a real bargain.
The touristas are getting close. All they need to do is switch to bullion AND AWAY WE GO!
So what else could be better? Went to Mel Fishers museum
to see the Riches Of The Atocha. There I was able to hold a 74 oz. bar of Gold form the treasure. Now I'm telling you if that does not make you a Goldbug, you don't have a pulse.
Yepper,everyone wanted to put there grubby little hands on that bar. Just made me smile. Too bad they did not realize that they could have their own gold in hand.

So be positive. Time is on my side. Yes it is. Love them Rolling Stones.

Slingshot--------------------<>

Black Blade

(05/04/2002; 19:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74913)

Buffett Tells Fans About Investing, Fraud

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020504/financial_berkshire_1.html
Snippit:

OMAHA, Neb. (Reuters) - Omaha's Civic Auditorium was packed to the rafters on Saturday to hear Warren Buffett and his business partner Charlie Munger describe their unique approach to long-term investing and slam fraudulent practices hurting U.S. companies. "Many of the crooks look like crooks," said Buffett. "They have a smell about them." "Wall Street loves them as long as they are pushing out securities," he added.

Turning to the troubled area of corporate accounting, Buffett predicted that derivatives -- a major business for failed Enron Corp. -- would trip up other firms in the future. "There's no place with as much potential for phony numbers as derivatives," said Buffett. Munger went further: "To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage."

Black Blade: I guess he won't be investing in JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, or most any other investment bank anytime soon.

Black Blade

(05/04/2002; 19:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74914)

'Locust Cycle' May Bug Street for Years

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020504/column_stocks_week_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The stock market may be in the early stages of the "Locust Cycle," a plague that brings investors years of unappealing returns before the good times start to roll again. If this is the market's destiny, then people should abandon their deeply ingrained belief that stocks always bounce back. In other words, the "buy on dip" mentality may not be the smartest strategy.

Indeed, one of the biggest fictions on Wall Street is the market always comes back. It's a mindset formed during the 1990s when stocks were the great wealth spinners. "That's what happens during bull markets -- the market always rebounds, that is, until it ends," says Ray DeVoe, veteran Wall Streeter and publisher of the DeVoe Report. "This is most investors' only experience in the stock market during the 18 years of rising prices."

He believes that investors, itching for a return of the bull market that hung on from 1982 to 2000, may instead be faced with a profit drought that could last for years. It's called the "Locust Cycle," in which the crop-ravaging insect lies dormant for 17 years and then awakens for 17 years of activity. "People do not realize that there can be long periods when the market goes nowhere or acts poorly," DeVoe says.

It happened after the crash of 1929 and again at the conclusion of the "Nifty 50" market in the 1970s. After the 1929 bloodbath, the Dow Jones industrial average went into a head-spinning plunge of 82 percent by the summer of 1932. Then, it took the Dow 25 years to return to its pre-crash high, says DeVoe, who was born the year after the 1929 debacle.

Black Blade: Locust Cycle? A Grasshopper of a different stripe. The markets have had their run, and now that the American consumer has come face to face with reality after years of complacency, environmental brain washing and in general a life in "Fairy Land". They are about to wake up to the realization that goods just don't magically appear at the supermarkets, gasoline from gas pumps, and electricity from the socket in the wall. Now that those costs are rising, they will be less likely to put cash intro the stock markets. The smart ones will be paying off debt and preparing for rough times.

Black Blade

(05/04/2002; 19:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74915)

Dollar Has Biggest Drop Since January on U.S. Jobs Report

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNLFdxOrRG9sbGFy
Snippit:

New York, May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had its biggest drop against the euro since January after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate reached a 7 1/2-year high in April, fueling concern an economic rebound may be slower than projected. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped to a six-month low this week on skepticism about the strength of the U.S. expansion, which also reduced demand for dollars needed to buy shares.

Black Blade: Let's see, first the financial media Trolls brush off the rising unemployment rate as a backward looking indicator, and now they are concerned that it is leading to a drop in the US Dollar? I got news for the Trolls; the unemployment picture is going to get much worse. Especially so as the costs of energy rise in the face of declining petroleum production and the loss of consumer confidence as stocks decline to match historical values (not to mention the lack of growing corporate profits).

USAGOLD

(05/04/2002; 19:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74916)

Black Blade and ALL. . ..

This is an incredible statement from one of America's top money men and one who has made his money in the securities' business:

Munger went further: "To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage."
____________________

Black Blade

(05/04/2002; 19:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74917)

O'Neill Protests, Markets Scent Shift

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020504/economy_oneill_1.html
Snippit:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill told Congress on Wednesday he did not want to signal a change in currency policy. But that is exactly what markets saw -- a shift away from the long-standing "strong dollar" policy. With the dollar already under pressure, the shift may be a timely one. It would allow policymakers to gradually weaken the currency to address growing concerns about how to finance both the huge U.S. current account deficit and the newly returned U.S. budget deficit. The United States has run a trade imbalance for years, but signs global demand for U.S. assets, needed to fund the trade gap, is waning has heightened concerns about deficits.

Black Blade: The weaker US Dollar is a given. The USD must be weakened in face of record trade deficits over the last several months with no end in sight. The upside is that the US Dollar denominated POG should strengthen further.

Waverider

(05/04/2002; 22:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74918)

Argentina Seeks Loan to Avert Default on World Bank

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APNLpHRUvQXJnZW50&ao=4141079Snippit:
"Argentina asked foreign governments and lending agencies for a 30-day loan to avoid defaulting on $800 million due to the World Bank mid-month, Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna said.

A loan would keep a Latin American country from joining Afghanistan, Sudan, Liberia, Somalia, and Zimbabwe as countries that have fallen into arrears with the World Bank and IMF. Negotiating 30-day credit will be difficult because Argentina's tax revenue has plunged, the country remains in default with bondholders, and banks are seeking government assistance to overcome insolvency caused by January's devaluation, analysts said."

Waverider: More tears for Argentina as it appears there are no immediate solutions to their economic dilemma.

~Black Blade - you recommended a few books a while ago but didn't give the authors. The titles are "Green Monday" and "Hubbert's Peak". Actually I found "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage" by KS Deffeyes - is that the one? Do you have the author for "Green Monday"? TIA!

~Slingshot - Sounds as though you had a great vacation. Your observation of others reactions to the Gold bar is interesting - Gold seems to captivate those who lay eyes on it. I've been thinking that it may be easier to engage people in discussion about Gold by having it readily visible, so I'm having a Maple Leaf coin made into a pendant. As Aristotle said - "do your part to free it from the banking system - tell a friend". Well, I try to talk to friends and colleagues about Gold and it usually goes right over their heads...not even a passing interest regardless of the approach I take. I've never been one for jewellery but maybe a Gold coin will catch attention and open the door to discussion. We'll see... Cheers!

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 00:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 74919)

Re: Waverider � Books

The following books are listed along with author and a short description by reviewers and myself:

1. "The Prize: The Epic Quest For Oil, Money, and Power" By Daniel Yergin, 1993. The book furthers ones understanding of the United States' place in this history which, in turn, helps us to understand why oil is a vital national interest to the most powerful nation on earth. With this in mind, the book helps one to understand not only the influence people like the Samuel brothers, the Rothschilds, and the Rockefellers had on the development and growth of the industry, but most importantly how and why this industry has such influence on the direction of U.S. foreign policy.

2. "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending Oil Shortage" By Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2001. This book has been on the top 10 list and is one of the books recently seen carried by George Dubya. Kenneth S. Deffeyes was a prot�g� of M.King Hubbert at Shell and is currently a professor of Geology at Princeton University. He delivers a sobering message: the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil "will fall, never to rise again." If Deffeyes is right--and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives. It is no wonder then that Oil Men like George "Dubya" Bush and Dick Cheney have read this book.

3. "Geodestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources Over Nations And Individuals" By Walter Lewellyn Youngquist, 1997. GeoDestinies helps to identify the forces that will determine our future. Some of these include the exponential population explosion, the ever-increasing demand and use of fossil fuels and other non-renewable resources, the degradation of our soils and groundwater, the truths and misinformation concerning alternative energy sources, and the relationships between natural resources and politics, economics, and our culture as a whole.

4. "The Coming Oil Crisis" By Colin J.Campbell, 1997. During 1997, an academic debate of immense significance for the future of civilization began to surface in a remarkably diverse array of media. The debate concerns the question, is there enough crude oil left in the world to get us to 2010 without a historically unprecedented discontinuity. The whole character of society in the 20th Century, and of its history, economics and politics is more a product of oil than of any other factor. The crucial question which Campbell addresses in his book is how much oil remains to be found and for how long global oil resources can continue to support the expected growth in demand. Having access to Petroconsultants' extensive database, he has carried out a detailed and comprehensive analysis of historical production data and of the Earth's ultimate oil potential. His estimate of the ultimate oil reserves is 1800 billion barrels of which 1600 billion barrels have been discovered, and he predicts that there are only a further 200 billion barrels yet to be found. His most crucial pronouncement however, is that once the global mid-point of depletion has been reached, production rate will decline.

5. "Green Monday" (out of print � Financial Thriller) By Michael Thomas, 1981. Financial Thriller � I believe about Gold, Oil and the Middle East � I haven't read it. Though I remember that Randy (our Admin guy) mentioned it once in passing. It sounds interesting enough that I just ordered a used copy tonight from an online book retailer.

6. "The Skeptical Enivornmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World" By Bjorn Lomborg (Academic and former Greenpeace activist), 2001. Lomborg than correctly pointed out that incentive structure for the career environmental scientist/activist tilt them to communicate bad, or even alarmist, scenarios. Basically, it is money (donations and government grants) and livelihood (career and fame.) Similarly, the media is incented to communicate "news" that attracts a large viewership - the only real news is bad news. He merely points out that if we use scientific methods (rather than faith) and make claims responsibly (rather than based on self-interest), the populace will have a better understanding of the true state of the environment, and resources can be directed to the areas that are truly a source of concern. But of course that might well mean that less governmental money, and less environmental research jobs. Lomborg did not make many friends of the environmental stripe by publishing this book

7. "The ABCs of Gold Investing : Protecting Your Wealth Through Private Gold Ownership" By Michael J. Kosares, John Ritland (Illustrator), Rod Colvin (Editor), 1997. Of course our Host's book is listed as a recommended listing along with the previous literature. Now for the first time under one cover, novice investors will find thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership. In The ABCs Of Gold Investing, gold investment expert Michael J. Kosares (with 25 years experience in the field) emphasizes the asset preservation qualities of gold at a time when investor uncertainty about the economy has led many to seek asset diversification. The ABCs Of Gold Investing covers a range of topics, from understanding gold's role in combatting inflation and deflation to how to select a gold firm. Kosares also examines reasons why gold has become an essential in many American portfolio and why that trend is likely to continue. � Midwest Book Review. Heck, if you ask I am sure he will even sign the book for you. (You can even buy thye book here online from the Castle, as well as "In the Footsteps of Giants" - introduced to me by a friend).

8. "The Power of Gold : The History of an Obsession" By Peter L. Bernstein, 2001. Though I don't necessarily agree with all of Peter's conclusions, he does put together an interesting (and gory) picture of the history of the "barbarous relic". Peter Bernstein quotes the immortal words of King Ferdinand of Spain, who once declared: "Get gold, humanely if possible, but at all hazards--get gold." As ensuing chapters reveal, man's obsession with finding, keeping, selling, and evaluating gold has rarely been a humane adventure and has always been a hazardous one. If anything, the book does describe events through history concerning Gold that we know have influenced the course of history for over 6,000 years. Although he doesn't cover it, the earliest evidence of Gold influence in World culture is perhaps as early as 4,000 B.C. as evidenced by unearthed Thracian treasures. Other than the historical view presented I think that he tends to miss the point of Gold ownership in today's world and the necessity of having Gold as part of a diversification strategy. For that I would recomment MK's book.

Aside from "Green Monday", which I haven't read yet, I would recommend the other books as a good start to understanding the approaching financial crises as our critical economically extractable resources become depleted and how to prepare for the ensuing financial meltdown. Actually, I have yet to read the entire "Hubbert's Peak" and "The Skeptical Environmentalist". Anyway, so much good literature and so little time, but that is what life is � a lifetime of learning and accumulated knowledge. Cheers and happy reading!

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(05/05/2002; 01:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74920)

Golden Bear -- House of cards

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=11330I was going to select that same Noland passage:

"Greenspan: "New financial products have enabled risk to be dispersed more effectively to those willing, and presumably able, to bear it. Shocks to the overall economic system are accordingly less likely to create cascading credit failure."

Noland:" We take the exact opposite view: Derivatives and "financial engineering" generally isolate, extract, and specifically "Bundle" risk (interest rate, Credit, currency, equity, gold, etc.). And this is not some arcane intellectual debate, as it is our view that this "Bundling" has now set the stage for precisely the types of "cascading credit failure" and inevitable "shock to the overall economic system" that Greenspan apparently believes are "less likely."

G: Reading the two opposing views of derivative risk just now over at Noland's site put me back to a few hours ago when my daughter was reciting to me in full detail the story of The Emperor's New Clothes, which she has just learned to read.

Greenspan and his "wise" advisors are obviously the smartest people in the land and certainly could not be found to be walking through the city buck nekkid now, could they?

I actually had some thoughts yesterday for a "bell curve" of mathematical precision in finance, which I get every time I read the list of "Greeks" in options, and when I hear about delta hedging. The pioneers in financial mathematics (and computer modeling) got an edge over some others in the trade, but it has led to a computerized "arms race" in competitive modeling, till no one has any useful edge now, compared with the systemic risk overall.

These people are so enamored of their precise formulae, they can't get over it, and they can't admit that all their competitors are using the same formulae. The edge now cannot be in getting a slightly finer-tuned formula to beat them by a tiny margin; the edge must be to get the hell out of the game before it implodes. What! -- and give up my paychecks and commission bonuses!

I still imagine that Greenspan's disaster recovery scenario is to triage the strongest of the "wounded" firms with Fed cash, close the worst ones by merging into selected survivors, which will take "haircuts" on their portfolios and hope to continue. The public will be measured for its remaining confidence in The System, and an appropriate image of the financial industry will be supplied to meet that remaining credulity. "Bad" banks etc will be exposed in the media and despatched publicly, and good ones will be lauded for "stepping in to save the public's hard-earned savings". 'Twill be a PR campaign they'll view with awe ages hence!

The Federal Reserve and FDIC created a fiat money system in which all banks could partake as franchises ("McFed"?) staying within certain industry-supplied rules, and competing only in approved ways. That system will morph itself as necessary and possible to conform to a new financial landscape, presenting whatever faces and names it believes will bring in the greatest overall cash depository result.

That Antal Fekete essay recently about the Fed deepening the 30's Depression by liquefying the banking system through T-bonds while starving the manufacturing sector, comes to mind as an example of the sway of the financial sector over all others, at whatever cost in human suffering.

Banking and its machinations have been such a big part of our U.S. history in EACH century; it is really hard for me to hear paeans about this "wonderful country of ours" (I know which parts of it _I_ think are wonderful) without thinking of the blindness of its inhabitants to the financial control mechanisms ruling their lives.

Blind patriotism seems to me almost a pugnacious, pathetic denialism by those who are trying to fight their way out of the paper bag of their own forgiveable ignorance, constructed out of media propaganda, economic mis-education, and mathematical innumeracy. A product attacking its fellow products.

Revolution against such a system will require one part learning mathematics, two parts education in economic fundamentals (such as Austrian), and two parts sheer orneriness at being lied to one's entire lifetime.

Gold Standard

(05/05/2002; 03:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74921)

Just for a laugh!

http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm
Have any of you Lords and Ladies of the Realm of Gold stumbled across the above site?

It is full-on propaganda from the Cabal to you:

Snip>
The threat of a financial crisis does not yet seem close enough to warrant a run out of the U.S. Dollar, particularly since the present U.S. administration seems to favor a strong dollar.

There has been a lot of talk about some mining companies planning not to hedge as much as they have in the past. We are surprised at how many people take this talk seriously, which we regard as somewhere between foolish and ridiculous. The futures market exists for the benefit of miners to take advantage of high prices when they occur in the futures market. A miner can lock in a good profit in the futures market when prices are right.

If a mining company passes up the opportunity to lock up a good profit, he will then be speculating instead. Sometimes he will be right and other times he will be wrong. The subject of hedging has been discussed for centuries and there are many different attitudes toward it. However, most businessmen agree that if you can lock up a profit rather than speculate, you should do so.

Those miners who decide to speculate rather than hedge at a profit put their companies at risk if the price goes the wrong way. For an ongoing business not to hedge in a good profit, would be considered irresponsible or just plain greedy by some. Solid, long lasting companies are usually not based on speculation.

So far, in spite of reports of hedging cutbacks, we are unable to see the affect of any cutbacks as the industry remains hedged at high levels.

Well worth a look and a laugh, especially when cracking the champagne after Monday's trade.

Cheers and Golden dreams, all!

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 04:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 74922)

Gold Standard

http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm
So....that's where S J Kaplan went (snicker). I guess he will be just as successful there as on his old site. How pathetic. Relying solely on COT as an indicator for POG direction. How bizarre. let's see here, didn't SJ Kaplan go "significantly Bearish" just as when the current Gold rally began and then go long the QQQ? Hmmm...

Just because these guys are losing their shirts they decide that they must trash anything that is moving higher - particularly Gold. They are in for a very big surprise (so far they have been creamed).

- Black Blade

Boilermaker

(05/05/2002; 05:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 74923)

Business Week Cover Story

MAY 13, 2002

COVER STORY

How Corrupt Is Wall Street?

New revelations have investors baying for blood, and the scandal is widening

When Debases Kanjilal, a Queens (N.Y.) pediatrician, picked up his phone in early 2001 to call lawyer Jacob H. Zamansky, he had no idea he would whip up a full-fledged hurricane on Wall Street. Kanjilal claimed he lost $500,000 investing in Infospace Inc. (INSP ), an Internet stock he says his Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER ) broker urged him not to sell when it was trading at $60 a share. By the time he sold, it was down to $11. Zamansky filed a novel arbitration claim against Merrill in March, 2001, in which he argued that its star Net analyst, Henry Blodget, had misled investors by fraudulently promoting the stocks of companies with which the firm had investment banking relationships. That lawsuit led directly to an investigation by New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who stunned Merrill and its Wall Street brethren three weeks ago when he made public some shocking e-mail exchanges between Merrill analysts and bankers.

That was just the start. Now, Spitzer is investigating Salomon Smith Barney, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD ), and at least three others. The Securities & Exchange Commission has launched a probe into practices at 10 firms, while the Justice Dept. is pondering an inquiry of its own. And plaintiffs' lawyers are advertising for clients and filing new suits daily.

The widening scandal has plunged Wall Street into crisis. The resulting furor is more thunderous than the one unleashed by Michael R. Milken's junk-bond schemes in the 1980s, the Prudential Securities limited-partnership debacle in the early '90s, or price-fixing on the Nasdaq later in the decade. In part, that's because many more individuals lost money in the recent market collapse than on earlier scandals.

But uproar over the relationships between analysts and their investment banking colleagues has also grown because it comes on the heels of several other scandals that raise big questions about how Wall Street operates. Already, probes are under way into Wall Street's shady initial public offering allocation practices, as well as its crucial role in setting up and selling the partnerships that led to Enron Corp.'s collapse. Worse, execs at many firms may have made a bundle investing in the partnerships, even as those same firms advised clients to hold Enron stock virtually until it went bankrupt. It all makes Wall Street seem rigged for the benefit of insiders as never before.

The damage goes way beyond the tattered reputations of the firms and their beleaguered analysts. The entire economy depends on the financial system to raise and allocate capital. And that financial system, in turn, is built on the integrity of its information. Should investors lose confidence in that information, it could deepen and prolong the bear market, as wary investors hesitate to put money into stocks. And it could easily put a damper on the economy if companies are less willing--or less able--to raise capital on Wall Street. "One of the precious things we have is the integrity of the financial markets. If that changes it could have dramatic repercussions on the dollar, on domestic inflation, on the economy," says Felix G. Rohatyn, former managing director of Lazard Freres & Co.

Wall Street has always struggled with conflicts of interest. Indeed, an investment bank is a business built on them. The same institution serves two masters: the companies for which it sells stock, issues bonds, or executes mergers; and the investors whom it advises. While companies want high prices for their newly issued stocks and low interest rates on their bonds, investors want low prices and high rates. In between, the bank gets fees from both and trades stocks and bonds on its own behalf as well, potentially putting its own interests at odds with those of all its customers.

But in recent years, those inherent conflicts have grown worse, as the sums to be made by overlooking them have grown enormous. That's because since the repeal of Depression-era banking laws, megabanks such as Citigroup (C ) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM ) are allowed to do everything from trading stocks to lending money and managing pension funds.

Chinese walls--jargon for the strict separation of the different lines of business conducted under the same roof--were supposed to keep the bankers honest and free from corruption. But a series of scandals since the early 1980s has eaten away at those foundations. The final blow, however, was the tide of money that flooded over Wall Street during the great tech bubble. Between the last quarter of 1998 and the first quarter of 2000, the tech-heavy Nasdaq market index soared from 1,500 to more than 5,000. Many investors made out like bandits. So did the investment banks. During the same period, according to Thomson Financial/First Call, Wall Street earned $10 billion in fees by raising nearly $245 billion for 1,300 companies, many of them profitless tech outfits that later blew up. The bubble burst in the spring of 2000, wiping out more than $4 trillion in investor wealth. "The fact is that a bubble market allowed the creation of bubble companies, entities designed more with an eye to making money off investors rather than for them," wrote famed investor Warren E. Buffett in his annual report to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A ) shareholders last year.

Staking their claim in the gold rush, Wall Street firms ramped up in the late '90s, hiring hordes of analysts, many of them inexperienced. New investment bankers were hired as well. A feeding frenzy set in as rivals fought to grab a big share of the market to bring companies public. At the same time, a new cult of equities came to life, as individuals invested in stocks as never before. True, many investors ignored common sense. Still, as analysts applauded stocks, trumpeting their picks on CNBC and other media, investors bought. "Investors took everything at face value, which was understandable. There wasn't a lot of information, and it was of varying quality," says Michael E. Kenneally, co-chairman and chief investment officer at Bank of America Capital Management Inc.

Only now are the ugly details of the conflicts at play being laid bare. In some of the e-mail turned up by Spitzer, analysts disparage stocks as "crap" and "junk" that they were pushing at the time. The e-mails are so incendiary that they threaten to thrust Wall Street into the sort of public-relations nightmare that Philip Morris (MO ), Ford (F ), Firestone, and Arthur Andersen have endured in recent years. All the ingredients are present: publicity-hungry attorneys general, packs of plaintiffs' lawyers, and potential congressional hearings. "The last thing the industry wants is...the drip-drip-drip of new stories every week," says Howard Schiffman, a former SEC Enforcement Div. lawyer now practicing privately in Washington.

More explosive documents may be on the way. Both Spitzer and the SEC are seeking from more than a dozen firms papers and e-mail related to analysts' recommendations and their potential conflicts of interest. While nobody knows what evidence will emerge, other firms will have their own smoking guns. And analyst pay is likely to emerge as a hot-button issue. Zamansky, for instance, claims that he has seen contracts from investment banks promising analysts 3% to 7% of all the investment banking revenues that they help to generate.

That would be clear proof that analysts were being paid to help the firms' banking clients, often at the expense of investors who expected objective advice.

The financial implications of this mess are enormous. Based on the evidence that has already emerged, Merrill is facing potential fraud claims by every retail investor who purchased any stock that Blodget & Co. may have insincerely recommended. If analysts covering other industries at the firm harbored similar doubts about the companies they hawked, the number of claimants will expand exponentially. Should other financial firms have similarly embarrassing documents in their files, Wall Street could easily be facing billions in potential liability. In a report released on Apr. 24, as the fiasco was unfolding, Prudential Financial analyst David Trone estimated the issue could cost Merrill alone $2 billion.

Heads could roll, too. If prosecutors conclude that firms are guilty of systemic fraud--rather than harboring a small group of rogues--research directors and other high-ranking execs could be vulnerable. That's why the way analysts were paid is such an explosive issue. In egregious cases, criminal prosecutions are possible. Although regulators have never thrown an analyst in jail for fraudulently recommending a stock, experts say that could happen if public outrage flames high enough. Spitzer, whose tough New York securities statutes give him unusually broad power to file criminal suits, says he won't stop short of structural reform. "I'm continuing to negotiate [with Merrill]," he told BusinessWeek on May 1. "They've been fruitful discussions, but negotiations can break down over a range of things. At this moment, we have significant issues that have not been resolved."

Over the long run, a risk bigger than legal penalties could be new restrictions that Spitzer or others place on the way investment banks do business. On May 8, the SEC is scheduled to approve new rules forcing analysts to limit and disclose contacts with investment banker colleagues. But there's good reason to question whether these steps will be enough to satisfy the industry's critics--some of whom seek a separation between investment banking and analysis. At the moment, such radical change is a long shot. But if the Democrat-controlled Senate latches on to the analyst issue, it could trigger embarrassing hearings or proposals for more stringent rules. "Other shoes will drop," says one securities-industry lobbyist. "If [Salomon's Jack] Grubman or [Morgan Stanley's] Mary Meeker turns up [in similar evidence], the sky is the limit" for this issue. "It has big legs."

It was never much of a secret that analysts who work at investment banks often work against investors. Sell ratings now make up less than 2% of analysts' recommendations, up from around 1% during the bull market, according to First Call. Analysts are under pressure from the companies they cover, as well as from big institutional clients who may own the stock, to give positive ratings. Michael Mayo, senior bank analyst at Prudential Financial, recently told the Senate Banking Committee that he had been exhorted to stay bullish throughout his career, from both his former employers and the companies he covers. Otherwise, he said, he doesn't get the same access that others do, which gives him a harder time making nuanced stock calls. "It's like playing basketball with one hand tied behind your back," says Mayo. Analysts also need to shine in surveys such as Institutional Investor's annual rankings, in which money managers vote for their favorite stockpickers, so they spend too much time lobbying clients rather than crunching numbers. "Analysts get focused on saying what they think the client wants to hear to win the vote," says Henry J. Herrmann, chief investment officer at Waddell & Reed Inc., a money manager.

The biggest factor now contaminating the system is compensation. To an ever-increasing degree, analysts' pay is tied to how much investment banking business they bring in. According to a Merrill memo released by Spitzer, Blodget detailed how he and his team had been involved in 52 investment banking transactions from December, 1999, to November, 2000, earning $115 million for the firm. Shortly thereafter, Blodget's pay package shot up from $3 million to $12 million. Charles L. Hill, First Call's director of research, says that when he was a retail analyst 20 years ago, if he helped investment bankers with a new client, he would get a small reward at year's end: "But it was the frosting on the cake. Now, it is the cake."

It would be an exaggeration to say analysts alone are to blame for Wall Street's woes. There's a much deeper problem involving everyone from credulous investors to deal-happy investment bankers and execs looking to fatten their wallets. "It's finally dawning on people that this incentive system we've given managers based on the value of stock options has encouraged management to puff up their companies a lot," says Robert J. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and author of the 2000 best-seller Irrational Exuberance.

Even so, experts say a lot of the corruption oozing from Wall Street has to do with an erosion in investment banking ethics and practices. It goes clear back to 1975, when fixed trading commissions were ended. Until then, investment banks had been able to make big bucks off pricey trading commissions. Slashed commissions meant the firms were forced to derive more revenues from investment banking business. "There's a real sense of sadness over what has happened in investment banking. It's not about what's right for a client, it's all about jamming a deal down a client's throat," says an ex-analyst who recently joined a hedge fund.

Consider Enron, which has paid $323 million to Wall Street in underwriting fees since 1986, according to Thomson. Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS ) pocketed $69 million of that, while Salomon made off with $61 million, and Credit Suisse First Boston took $64 million. Indeed, two of CSFB's investment bankers, after helping to design Enron's off-the-books partnerships, sat on one of the partnerships' boards. According to a complaint filed in Houston Federal Court on Apr. 8, investment bankers generated megaprofits from secretly investing in Enron's hidden partnerships. Meanwhile, many analysts continued recommending the stock to the bitter end: 11 out of 16 analysts who follow Enron had buys or strong buys less than a month before the company's bankruptcy filing.

Enron may be an extreme example. Still, in the past, tradition and ethics played a large role in keeping investment bankers loyal to their corporate clients. Indeed, Wall Street itself used to have much more of an interest in guarding its reputation. Says Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida: "These days, bankers are far more focused on short-term profits than on their long-term reputations."

That's likely to get worse as investment banking business continues to dry up. The amount being raised in initial public offerings is way off its 2000 highs. Now there are far fewer mergers and follow-on offerings taking place. Because of this, it's unlikely that Wall Street, after all its hiring during the tech bubble, can sustain its profitability. Goldman Sachs estimates that five of the top investment banks on Wall Street will have to get by on $2 billion less than the $16 billion in net revenues they racked up in 1999. If investment banks roll back to 1999 staffing levels, Putnam Lovell Securities estimates that banks will have to shrink their payrolls by 5%--putting over 13,000 out of work.

But no matter how much Wall Street shrinks, its credibility must grow again. Firms have already taken some steps, such as eliminating direct reporting by analysts to investment bankers. But the Street and the SEC still must hammer out a solid, enforceable code of conduct. And if strong reforms in how analysts are compensated aren't pursued, focusing on increased disclosure will do little to end the abuses. Beyond that, regulators may need to go after the firms' top brass--the folks who set the procedural as well as ethical tone. And the Street should take great pains to monitor itself in an effort to restore investors' confidence. "If Wall Street knows what is good for it and what is good for this country, it will very definitely clean up its act," says Rohatyn. Adds George H. Boyd III, head of equities at New York's Weiss, Peck & Greer: "This is an industry of trust; it's one of its key assets. If [Wall Street] loses it, it is going to have to invest in getting [that trust] back and putting in the controls to rebuild it. Without that trust, there's nothing."

Merrill Lynch apparently knows this. At its annual shareholder meeting on Apr. 26, Chairman and CEO David H. Komansky took an unprecedented stand on the analyst debacle, saying: "We have failed to live up to the high standards that are our tradition, and I want to take this opportunity to publicly apologize to our clients, our shareholders, and our employees." Other apologies may follow, as firms desperately try to assuage potentially litigious investors and unyielding regulators. But for Wall Street, just saying sorry at this stage may prove to be too little, too late.

By Marcia Vickers and Mike France, with Emily Thornton, David Henry, and Heather Timmons in New York and Mike McNamee in Washington

Boilermaker comment: Corruption borne of greed will do more to damage the US than any foreign enemy or terrorist campaign could have ever hoped to accomplish. Government regulators and institutions, ie., SEC, Treasury Dept. and the Federal Reserve, have aided and abetted the process.

At least the "Mainstream Media" is finally taking the blinders off. That's a first step in correcting a problem that will cause many years of pain.

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 06:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74924)

Mr Gresham (msg#: 74920)

your excellent conclusion to a very probable playout of the future:

"Revolution against such a system will require one part learning mathematics, two parts education in economic fundamentals (such as Austrian), and two parts sheer orneriness at being lied to one's entire lifetime."

Include here the dissemination of profound words by those who have positions of authority and favour justice and liberty for all - eg Ron Paul and Reg Howe et al.

My only concern is that a large proportion of the population do not want to take that level of responsibility for their own lives and want to be nurtured by Big Brother - oops I mean the government. Look at Argentina - the masses refused too educate themselves after all the turmoil they had suffered in the past, and still were on the receiving end of this current default and devalution of their currency - and want the government to fix it so that it's the way it was before and they can then go on their merry way in fantasy land.

Through all this chaos, I have not heard one story of Argentinians accumulating gold bullion, instead they are substituting one form of confetti with another thinking they will be safe next time. Old habits die hard, just like their owners...

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 06:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74925)

Golden Bear - Argentina

The Argentine economy and banking system collapsed so fast that most Argentines were caught flat-footed. There simply was no time to exchange "confetti" for precious metal. Of course there were some who were buying Gold jewelry with fast depreciating pesos in a last ditch effort to get something of value. Also, if you were a bullion dealer and you saw the excessive rampant inflation would you exchange your value-gaining bullion for fast depreciating "confetti" or high-tail it with your bullion? I know what I would do. The time for buying Gold and Silver is past. The Ants survive while the Grasshoppers starve.

The economic disaster is starting to have effects in Brazil, Uruguay, and now Chile from what I hear. I also heard that large numbers of professionals are applying for visas to leave Argentina. Also, Argentine farmers are only selling produce for export. It looks to get more "grim" as this situation progresses.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 06:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74926)

Black Blade (msg#: 74925) Argentina

Greetings Sir,

I totally agree, however, did not Argentinians suffer rapid inflation due to a devaluing currency a decade ago? A wake up call that was not heeded.

It was too late when the SHTF, but they had a decade to get smarter....

Regards,

GB.

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 06:40:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74927)

Golden Bear

Indeed, however, even with second chances most people never learn (sigh). It's human nature to only think positive. Unfortunately the "Grasshopper" mentality is prevalent in all societies. When things go bad - they can go bad very fast when people least expect.

In the US we had the energy crisis last year, and yet no one has learned. In California they have shelved plans for extensive transmission grid upgrades and power plant contruction. We are headed into another energy crisis because of false hopes that there is excess supply (which is a mirage due to new storage, higher demand, less drilling, etc.).

When the inevitable happens in the west as the economic recession deepens, we may find ourselves just like the Argentines. The country sold off their official gold. The people were not able to withdraw depreciating pesos and they rioted for food. Some lucky few here at the forum were able to accumulate some Gold Argentine pesos.

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. I had been saying this long before the Argentine mess, and how well off they would have been if they were following such advice. Hopefully we here will not experience such things, however, we did in the 1930's (The Great Depression).

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Max Rabbitz

(05/05/2002; 07:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74928)

A wee bit from Scotland this Sunday Morning

http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=481962002From YOUR MONEY: Weak equity market sees investors making a new gold rush by Ian Williams.

"China's central bank is the most interesting example. China has exchange reserves of $700bn, of which about 2% is in gold. Last year, the Chinese declared their intention to increase this to between 10% and 15% of total reserves but were "persuaded" by the Americans to keep their reserves in dollars and treasury bills in return for American support for China's application to join the World Trade Organisation. Now that China is a member, it can change its reserve mix to whatever it wants."

Max: I figure 10% of $700bn is equal to 7056 tons of gold at $310 per ounce. How long will they wait?

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 07:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74929)

Black Blade (msg#: 74927)

I have been contemplating your regular final words for quite a time, and am now beginning to research the process of food storage, as I see things deteriorating steadily just like yourself...

Thanks again for being persistent with this message as it helps keep it at the forefront of our minds so that we do not lapse into forgetfullness and distraction.

On that note, I bid you goodnight from the land of Oz.

Econoclast

(05/05/2002; 07:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74930)

Max--I think they'll be waiting a loooong time...

If they want physical gold, it is not to be found in anything remotely approaching thousands of tonnes at these prices. There is already a supply/demand deficit when only a few hundred tonnes per year are being accumulated for investment. They will only be able to get that gold through DRASTICALLY higher prices, war(s), or a radical realignment deal in the CB world (with US gold obviously playing a major part).
The British auctions, which were heralded as being sooo important were only 25 tonnes each, and there was twice as many buyers as could be filled! The Chinese want 7000 tonnes--Good luck!
I imagine they do have a lot of dollars though.....

Rock

(05/05/2002; 08:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 74931)

Golden Bear

Taking Black Blades Advise on Food StorageStarting a food storage program makes practical sense. I remember when hurricane Andrew hit South Florida as I have family that lived through it to tell the story. They were left without food staples and fresh water for well over a week depending on where you were located. I also remember seeing TV footage of those long food lines during the great depressoin of 1929.

Why is it that we don't learn from history? So many of us have never been without in fact we have only experienced the abundance of the good times yet we look around us and see all the uncertainity in the world yet we still don't take heed.

I started my food storage porgram at the onset of Y2K and believe me when I tell you I was called every name in the book when I tried to direct others to buy gold and start a food storage program.

I have never been influenced by the majority because in my brief existence on this great planet I have learned that the majority is usually wrong.

One good place to consider for some ideas concerning an emergency food program is places like Eastern Mountain Sports. They have a large line of dehydraded foods in vacumed packs which have a shelf life of 5 to 10 years. All you need is water and presto, your eating lazayna, or beef stew or a variety of different food choices.

Pick up a small fuel stove that can be hooked up to either propane, white gas or kerosene. Think about this for a minute, we pay large insurance premiums on our vehicles and rarely see any of that money come back to us in tangable form yet when you pay for your food storage program you have the same security that you have when you pay your insurance premiums but at least you have something tangable to account for your money, its the same principle as owning gold in some ways.

And needless to say the peace of mind you have for doing it.
Always remember the 4 G's : God, Grub, Gold, Guns.
Have a great day.

Rock

Max Rabbitz

(05/05/2002; 09:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 74932)

Econoclast, Your are absolutely right.

The Chinese will have a hard time getting that gold. However, in the meanwhile they may have something even more valuable.

They must be aware of their ability to blackmail the dollar system with threats of massive gold purchases. I wonder what benefits, in addition to gaining World Trade Organization membership, they have been able to extract. Remember the stories of Chinese obtaining U.S. nuclear and missile designs during the Clinton years, and delays and interference by that administration in the investigations. I remember one undercover investigation was leaked to the NY Times prematurely, as FBI director Louis Freeh refused to ask for a delay in publishing. Also, there were stories of classified documents at Los Alamos given to visiting Chinese scientists by the Secretary of Energy Hazel O'leary. Then there were technology export regulations that were removed from State Department overview to that of the Commerce Department, with an apparent Chinese agent given a top spot in that department.

Is Taiwan the next payoff? Or perhaps a transfer of U.S. gold to China under the table at sales prices.

I for one do not wish to stand in the gold line behind the Chinese��in addition to the Japanese. There can't be much time left.

sector

(05/05/2002; 09:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 74933)

Gold and the Mainstream Financial Press...It's Radioactive

Why the WSJ will never write about the Gold Bull.It is a very simple premise. The Wall Street mainstream financial press is an extension of the Federal Reserve System. The Fed's mouth-piece.

The self appointed journalists of the Wall Street Journal are as biased against gold as the networks are against anti-liberal viewpoints. They can hardly be otherwise when they crave the favors of the moneyed princes of the Fed. The cocktail parties, the chauffeured limousines, the awards banquets...how could they possibly kiss all that off? To protect and defend journalistic integrity? What does integrity have to do with it?

The only investment class that is clearly moving upward these last few quarters is gold equities...not to mention the metal's move from $285 to $312 [10%] in just a few months.

Has the WSJ written about this new "Growth area"? No. Will they? No. To do so would constitute an insult to the Federal Reserve System and would cost the paper dearly. So there will be no report on gold unless it's negative in the main.

Several top reporters have been given deep details of the gold scandal and have sat on the story like heavy Buddha. Hypocrisy at work.

They failed to expose Enron when anyone remotely curious had the facts of corruption...the offshore connections were after all old hat because of the Hamanaka/Sumitomo copper fraud perpetrated by JPM.

I personally can attest to the pervasive influence of the JPM goons. I spoke directly with a lead attorney in the plaintiff's Sumitomo/JPM case. He was interested in data I created and whether it applied to copper. It didn't but I offered that JPM would be hurt by the gold market implications. "Your gold stuff will hurt JPM?" "Badly", was my answer. The attorney hung up so fast I thought his handset must have been burning him. Even adversarial plaintiffs are afraid of JPM and the Fed.

A corrupt press goes hand-in-hand with a corrupt Fed.

The brokerage scandal gets coverage because it doesn't threaten to unmask the fiat currency charade. Brokerages come and go as long as they push paper�why should the Fed care?

But writing about gold and its recent successful inroads threatens the continued dominance of unsupported paper currency and therefore the entire United States and world operational platform.

If the US currency fails the US fails. The story about gold is therefore radioactive�it must be killed.

Mr Gresham

(05/05/2002; 10:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 74934)

New Jersey post office renamed for passenger on hijacked plane who uttered words 'Let's roll'

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020504/ap_wo_en_ge/us_attacks_post_office_2Todd Beamer: "Let's roll"

(To be in the history books with "Don't fire until..." and "Damn the torpedoes..."?)

When it's time to get up out of your seat...

Mr Gresham

(05/05/2002; 10:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 74935)

Golden Bear

http://www.billparish.com/citigrouppyramidintro.htmlWith regard to the toppling of "big brothers", I've wanted for awhile to mention one of my most strongly remembered scenes from the movie "Dr. Zhivago".

The czarist officer is trying to rally the fleeing Russian troops (WWI) to go back and fight the Germans. He steps up on a barrel, standing on the lid, and waves his sword while he yells at them. They ignore him. Then the lid tilts or caves in, and he is plunged waist-deep into the barrel of water. He raises himself back up, sputtering, and bemoaning the spoiling of his fine uniform.

A passing veteran seargeant laughs, raises his rifle, and shoots him.

In the end, tyrants look ridiculous. They always overstay their loss of credibility.

Eastern European regimes (Ceaucescu for one) fell with about as much regard, once the crowds in the street saw that they were unified, and the soldiers were sympathetic.

Regarding banking, my guess would be that Robert Rubin at Citicorp has migrated to the designated strong rallying point. JPM is the sacrificial or scape-goat, with the derivs heaped high on its back, to be driven out of town.

When they had the Continental Illinois electronic bank run, the Fed backed anyone's deposits at all amounts, and the gov took over ownership.

In a modern run, circling the wagons, the Fed would let it be known it was bankrolling Citicorp and a few other strong regionals (politically-connected?) and you would be allowed to transfer your deposits there, in fact the Fed would do it for you, minus a "haircut" fee.

The money supply would reduce in one swift crunch -- but it would be the shaky flaky fringe money getting lopped off fast, like a cancer surgery, and leave the "strong" core money secure, at least for a business cycle longer. (If the Fed exists for ANYTHING, it is to create -- AND DEFINE -- the "what is money" question for our society.

The removal of worry over the middleground of financial institutions collapsing would be the smartest thing they could do to "sauve qui peut" -- save what they can for another day's profit.

Had another thought rattling around somewhere, but -- hey, when the coffee cup's on empty, and the baby's been screaming for a diaper change (just kidding) for half an hour, time to go...

(BTW, it's time for a re-linking to Bill Parish's site -- I read the essay here way-y-y back, so I'm not thinking of it's content in terms of this post, but it's probably close to relevant.)

mikal

(05/05/2002; 10:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 74936)

Economy in Balance on Mideast Conflict

http://www.reuters.com_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=919...�
May 05, 2002 11:17 AM � By Jon Herskovitz
NEW YORK (Reuters) - It may be hard to look at the bloodshed in the Middle East through the dispassionate eye of economics, with Israeli tanks rolling through Palestinian streets and suicide bombers setting off blasts that kill and maim dozens at Israeli markets.
But shock-waves from the conflict have not only pushed up prices at the gas pump, they have also hit investor confidence, dampening stocks, and added a few pennies to the cost of some products due to higher fuel and transportation charges..............
......Economists reckon that each rise of $1 a barrel in oil prices causes U.S. gross domestic product to shrink by about 0.05 percentage points. It is also like a tax on consumers as it raises prices and cuts into their buying power.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in April that energy prices had not yet risen to a point that would sap spending but warned a lasting surge in the cost of oil could have "far-reaching" consequences.
............"This is the kind of situation that is so fluid that there isn't a single story that everybody can bite into," he said. .....click link for more or visit the USAGOLD Live News page

Cavan Man

(05/05/2002; 11:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 74937)

@USAGOLD

Christos Aneste!

Waverider

(05/05/2002; 11:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74938)

Black Blade

WOWWZZERS....Thank You! :)

I certainly have my reading cut out for awhile with these fabulous books. Yes...learning keeps the mind optimally fit as exercise keeps the body fit. Cheers!

Waverider

USAGOLD

(05/05/2002; 12:25:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74939)

CM. . . .

Christos Aneste! My friend. . . .May you and your family have the best of Easters.

GoldnSilver2002

(05/05/2002; 12:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74940)

Holy CR@p,JPM a scapegoat?

To my understanding JPM has a position in the tens of trillions in the derivatives market,the failure of JPM will not be a pleasant day.The gdp of the usa is 6 trillion ,give or take a trillion for accounting.To simply lose years of a countries wages is bad for everyone.As of now,americans,perhaps the most gun lovin'shoot em up and haller bunch of them all,has been acting very sanely.The american people have probably shown up their middle eastern brothers....so far.

I would like to see what happens when Bush declares,"it is illegal to own gold in the u.s.a!"If JPM were to collapse,it would be almost pointless to have money(fiat) in the bank,just ask the argentinians.Even if one had gold,would it be prudent to lug 1 to 10 kg bars around?No,i believe something'some form of batering/accounting will arise but the paper experiment(fiat) will be over soon.The house of cards isnt collapsing,it just on fire at several key points.On the one hand they wipe out wealth,on the other, debt also, because everybody in the chain including the government is broke.If no one pays no one, then you can have all the debt you want because hey,"how do you get blood out of a stone?"

What the hell is my point?At this point this site isnt just a place to herald the forthcoming rise of gold,but what to do when that happens?Which banks will stay intact?Will banking around the world collapse?What forms of gold should one hold?And why silver(the average joes money) is a highly valid alternative to gold.Will the stock market survive as it did in 1929 or will all wealth be eliminated in one quick day?Please do tell,ive got a ton o gold n silver,the problem is what now?

Belgian

(05/05/2002; 13:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74941)

The monetary feast (Aristotle # 74909)

Allow me some reflextions on your latest post.
The US as "banker of the world" is running a trade deficit
(1 billion $) to the equivalent of * 100 * metric tonnes of Gold PER DAY ! Ten times, daily Gold uptake ! This to have a better idea of what 1 billion dollars a day means in relation to the *Value* of 100 tonnes of Gold.

Dear Sir Aristotle, Gold was set Free and had a premature and aborted run in 1971 (to 1980) ! But suddenly the "central bankers" decided that they still had a chance / possibility to postpone the inevitable day of reckoning. They gathered all their concerting forces (worldwide) to lower the Interest Rates with almost zero as a target ! WHY ? Simply the only way left of declining the "automatic" DEBT GROWTH and give a desinflating economy the (futile) chance to catch up with debt and a degree of repayment (rotation/liquidity). And oh wonder...they succeeded in lowering those abysmal rates and artificial oxygenation of economic activity ! And here we are, at the end and emptyness of the tool-box. The consequential, building (irreversible) trade deficit and now increasing unemployment (6% and rising).

Those central bankers (brightest minds) were/are and will always be, political puppets on that used string. They delayed (aborted) the '71/'80 Gold rush and must FACE this *solution*, again, only 20 years later. It is in this context that your explanation/interpretation of the WA ('99) is *Very* plausible and very close to reality.
The cleariest of signals that the extension-time of intervention has run its cause and is already in over-time.

The coming Free Gold Market will be more frightening than the 1971/1980 attempt ! The illusion of being capable to domnesticate debt, will slowly but surely fade with a global economy not being able to expand on this monetary mismatch. Every possible relance will be a false one and doomed to fail, faster and faster. FREE GOLD WILL IMPOSE ITSELF !

Analog to what will happen this summer : The US/ISRAEL/ME/EUROLAND/RUSSIA, meeting to *IMPOSE* peace in the ME. Note the participation of Russia !

Gold was always ment to be Free and the banking system only denies this temporary. This past 20 years of "denial" will play a capital role in the evolvement of the Gold Revaluation. It will *not* be a halve job, imbedded in all sorts of compromises (crisis management). No Sir, it will be a Plain Vanilla FREE GOLD MARKET and nothing less !
Those who lost sight/touch of Gold will soon join the stampede/rush. Those who never understood it, will learn on the way to Gold's proper place and function within the monetary matters. The Jhonny come latelies will have to pay the big ticket at full price, sorry VALUE !

Nice and peacefull end of the week to you and all other forumers.

Aristotle

(05/05/2002; 13:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 74942)

Max Rabbitz (05/05/02 msg#: 74928) and the Chinese

Thanks for sharing the numbers. When people read your comment (you said, "I figure 10% of $700bn is equal to 7056 tons of gold at $310 per ounce. How long will they wait?")
I hope people will also pause to remember my post from last week. The one about the conversation between two friends, one who bought a quantity of Gold, and one who merely wanted to exchange a quantity of notional money for Gold. As we'll recall, the latter of these two distinct objects can be the much easier to do.

With that said, maybe the Chinese are willing to wait until the full $700 billion can be converted into a convenient little lump of Gold the size of a teapot. Just think of the expenses they'll be spared in building their vault! On the other hand, as a nation we were foolish to get our Gold so early while it was inconveniently heavy for the price. We ended up with so very much Gold (for the price paid), that we had to spend a fortune on the design and construction of of massive vaults at Ft. Knox. Sheeeeeeeesh! Looks like the Chinese may have outwitted us.

But I'm sure it will be as FOA suggested. The U.S. will find its overall financial position and well-being best preserved by parting with a measure of our National Treasure. Ballast is rendered no less important simply because it must at time as these be offered unto the storm. After all, what good is "Money" if it can't be spent at times of dire need? Whether ours or another's, I expect the Chinese will make off with significantly more than a teapot-sized lump of Gold in exchange for their generous holdings of our debt securities.

There was a time when the political leaders of the "Free Peoples" of the earth, in rebuilding a war-shattered financial system, didn't want to let the value of Gold run because it would have provided a windfall boon to their adversarial counterparts in Africa and Soviet Union who were leading miners of the fresh metal.

So we got what we got, and have come to where we now are, one step at a time as economic and sociopolitical developments have allowed. Free markets will prevail in the end, of that I'm sure. The rest is just details for others as they seek to achieve the smoothest, most politically acceptable transition. But of course, nothing ever goes as smoothly as planned, and like two electrically charged ends being brought carefully closer to contact, an arc will suddenly complete the circuit ahead of "schedule" ... a variation of deliverance for Aragorn III's "lightening in the night" scenario.

Gold. Get you some ...there's electricity in the air. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(05/05/2002; 13:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 74943)

Belgian -- "FREE GOLD WILL IMPOSE ITSELF !"

Elegant in its accurate simplicy. I bow to you, good Sir!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

USAGOLD

(05/05/2002; 14:23:16 MDT - Msg ID: 74944)

Belgian. . .Aristotle. . . .A Simple Thought. . . .

As you say, we are in a time of transition in this fiat economy and it seems to me that when we look at the performance of various economies in times of transition, gold more often than becomes the most practical and reliable arbiter between the "old" and "new" economies -- no matter where you happen to live. Another analogy would be to say that it even serves as a bridge between the eras for those with the wisdom to use this transition tool to his or her advantage. In 1933, in the United States and in Europe -- gold served its owners well. In 1971 as well. In 1997 in Asia -- gold again did its job. And in Argentina in 2002 -- what would any Argentinian rather have owned?

Argentina, Russia AND the United States (should it become similarly afflicted) will not cease to exist and function as countries. Nor will their economies disappear -- though their currencies very well could (if they haven't already), if not in name at least in functionality. The system carefully constructed to support that currency could very well -- and probably will -- crumble as well. Cycles -- despite what the New Economy mavens -- would have had us believe are the only consistently present reality on this planet. Heeding that. . .one would be well advised to assume that a transition is inevitable and take the necessary precautions while one can, especially when one sees nothing but warning signs all around.

When one takes the sum of problems and corruptions at loose in the Amerian economy today -- from the sewage of derivatives accounting as Mr. Munger so inelegantly but forcefully put it yesterday to the rolling scandals on Wall Street of which the atatvistic analysts are just the most recent -- one must conclude we are observing symptoms of something deeper and more sinister at work than a few loose cannons. Who among us is willing to risk his or her hard won wealth on a bet that such symptoms DO NOT represent fatal, if not immobilizing, disease? Messrs. Buffet and Munger certainly do not appreciate the "smell" emanating from Wall Street these days. For the individual who does not know the form this transition will take, gold is a convenient parking place until things get sorted out. Traditionally, those who have make the Golden Choice tend to weather the storm and emerge on the other side prepared to take advantage of whatever opportunities might present themselves. Rubles, pesos, dollars and yen may dry up and fly with the wind, but hard metal -- detached from any politics, any system, any quid pro quo -- anchors wealth. Real wealth as you call it. Free gold as you foresee . . .in a Time of Troubles.

Sierra Madre made the interesting point several days ago that great pieces of real estate, antiques and art are available in Argentina for those with the assets to buy. And what is required to buy? Hard money. Something the recipient (seller) can utilize for his or her own purposes.

Aristotle: It's great to have you back.

Belgian: I wish you much success in tending that garden. It has already been an interesting spring.

slingshot

(05/05/2002; 14:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74945)

Rock msg# 74931

Taking PrecautionsAgain we approach the Hurricane and Fire Season in Florida.
Again I will see the very limited preparation taken by the general public to ease the effects of these natural disasters. We live on a dynamic planet constantly changing
with tornados, earthquakes,mudslides, blizzards,floods and volcanic eruptions. If these natural disasters are not enough,
the man made ones only compound the need to take precautions. Living near a oil refinery,nuclear power plant,or chemical plant, and the threat of terrorism could be a nightmare. Each event although having simular effects will have its own particular precautions to be taken. Depending on where you live, you may be subject to one or more of these possible problems. For sometime, we here at this forum, have been sounding the alarm for a disaster on the horizon, that will touch everyone on this planet.
It is a prediction with a sound basis and one we have time to prepare. The coming collapse of the worlds financial
markets. In the past, as well as in the future, we will try to warn others. Only to be laughed at and ridiculed because they either can not see or refuse to see our point of veiw.
We Goldbugs,(Chicken Littles), are a rare bunch consisting of doctors, teachers,real estate agents,oil rig workers'surfers,wrench turners and those who deal in Gold.
We are from the USA, China,Australia,Canada, Belgium and other points of the world.
In the furture we will have to make a decision as to whether or not to help those who laughed and ridiculed us in the past. Despite all the tough talk,(here and at other sites)
we in the end will take on the extra burden of helping others. Thats just the way we are. Truly a rare quality in todays world.
In conclusion, we must stay on the trail and try to enlighten others for if we do not, who will?

Thanks to MK, R, and all those at USAGOLD.

Slingshot---------------------------<>

USAGOLD

(05/05/2002; 15:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 74946)

Speaking of gardening. . . .and simple thoughts. . .

How many have seen the movie Being There? I had the opportunity to see it again for the first time in many years on one of the local television channels -- an extraordinary movie based on the book by Jerzy Kozinski. Peter Sellers plays the role of the simple (simpleton) gardener who casually states gardening principles and they are taken as incredible insights by those around him -- to the point that he becomes an confidant to one of America's wealthiest men and and advisor to the President of the United States. The concept works well because gardening is a metaphor for life, and because Sellers of course intends nothing by any of his allusions. He is simply talking about the only thing he knows -- gardening. We come to find out in the movie that the country is indeed run by a conspiracy, and in the end the simpleton -- who could care less about the direction of the country -- walks (Chaplinesque) on water testing the depth with his umbrella which he is using as a walking stick. None of this has anything to do with the subject at hand except as a side bar to Belgian's garden -- long may it grow, my friend. Life is full of double meanings, hidden growth, realized and unrealized potential. Sometimes we yearn for things that are fully within our grasp and we don't even know it.

(05/05/2002; 16:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74947)

U.S. SECURITY DEMANDS MORE U.S. GOLD RESERVES

U.S. SECURITY DEMANDS MORE U.S. GOLD RESERVES

Citizens of the United States should be concerned foremost with
the absolute gold tonnage held by the U.S. Treasury to back the
U.S. Dollar.

The U.S. Dollar is the world's reserve currency. It is the reference currency by which all other currencies are measured. It makes no
sense for the United States to hold foreign exchange reserves of other
countries since its own currency, the USD, is the primary currency.

What the United States must do, for its own security , is to hold as much
gold in its treasury as possible to back its own U.S. Dollar.

The U.S. Treasury must buy more gold either on the market or off market (private
placement from Swiss/German CFB etc. ) at every opportunity.

U.S. Gold reserves have the highest percentage of gold in their reserve
composition compared to foreign currencies but this is only a relative indicator.
Foreign countries must include substantial percentages of foreign currencies in their
reserve composition, particularly the USD, since the USD is the world's primary
currency.

Since the US dollar is considered to be the world's reserve currency, there is no natural
limit to the amount of gold that should be in the US Treasury to back
this world reserve currency.

This last point is the key :

THERE IS NO NATURAL LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT OF GOLD
THAT SHOULD BE IN THE U.S. TREASURY TO BACK THIS WORLD RESERVE
CURRENCY ( THE U.S. DOLLAR)

The only rational way to " pump money into the system"
is to greatly expand the money supply and back it with
substantially higher gold reserves. This offsets the
concommitant devaluation of the U.S. Dollar and inflation
that ensues from such monetary expansion.

AX

Leigh

(05/05/2002; 16:44:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74948)

Waverider

http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=screensaversThis link to the U.S. Mint screensavers will allow you to download Eagle Program (gold, silver, plat) screensavers for your office computer. Your screensaver will be the talk of the office, and you should get lots of inquiries about gold! It's a lot safer than taking coins in to work!

goldquest

(05/05/2002; 16:50:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74949)

@ ax Ref: Gold Reserves

My guess is that the U S has more gold accumulated than most of us care to realize. When the time is right, gold will again play a major role in world finances. The U S will not be caught short in the world game of monetary chess. All the more reason to be in the gold game now, through physical and gold stocks.

Cavan Man

(05/05/2002; 17:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 74950)

@Aristotle

The path is so clear.

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 17:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 74951)

@Rock, @Mr Gresham,

Rock,

Thank you for the words of support and information. Regarding the 4 G's, Australians are banned from owning any handguns and semi automatic rifles. Hunters with permits can own single or double barrel shotguns, but that's about it. It will have to do...

Mr Gresham,

thanks for the laugh - I was 14 when Dr Zhivago came out and my Dad being a history buff took us to see it at the drive in. Damn 3 1/2 hr movie nearly killed my brother and I from sheer boredom (11 and 14 year olds don't have the same sense of history as we older and wiser folk), I do believe it would have quite a different impact on me seeing it now.

As for the government allowing a controlled failure of some institutions, the assumption is that they can control it at all. Like a nuclear reaction, once you get to a certain critical level of cascading fission run amuck, it is impossible to stop. Will this time be the financial Chernobyl that scorches the whole financial landscape leaving those with their golden antiradiation suits left standing? Are we seeing this fission reaction beginning now in gold's upward move, ready to go parabolic? Only time will tell....

Thanks for the reposting of Bill Parish's link. Will read with interest.

Regards,

GB.

Waverider

(05/05/2002; 17:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74952)

Leigh

Thanks for the tip. I'll try it as a screen saver at the office and see what the responses are. I wasn't thinking of loose coins, but a Gold coin made into a pendant...it would be visible and relatively safe. I'm trying to think of some creative ways to engage people in discussion about Gold...stimulate their curiosity as it were so they're motivated to learn more. Thanks again for the tip, always appreciate your thoughts and contributions. Cheers!
Waverider

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 17:47:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74953)

ax (msg#: 74947)

It is not possible IMHO for the USA to accumulate bullion in sufficient quantities to offset the exploding printing and flooding of fiat into the system. The scarcity of gold and its use in a gold backed monetary system has its main function of limiting this printing of confetti, and is one reason Nixon severed the last remaining link between the two.

As for the USA gold reserves, the assumption is that no other country has a claim to what is in its vaults, and who knows what will happen if the USA defaults on these claims if in fact they do exist...

Cheers.

Interstate

(05/05/2002; 17:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74954)

Food Storage

Reading this forum everyday is like getting a huge dose of knowledge. I thank each of you.

I noticed that food storage was mentioned a few times today. Good. But, I have one suggestion. Don't rely heavily on dried foods because of the water that is needed to rehydrate them. Buy plenty of juices and other ready to drink liquids. Someone (Rock, I think) mentioned hurricanes. Living in Florida, I have been through several and the water supply either cannot be pumped through the municipal pipes because there is no electricity or the water supply gets polluted. It is almost unbelievable how much water a family uses in one day. The first storm, we had 50 gallons of stored water. Electricity was off for 6 days. We were very frugal with our water and still, we were using our last gallon when the power came on. One gallon per person per day.....is NOT enough.

What we are preparing for will probably last longer than 6 days. Food? Yes. Medicines? yes. And lots and lots of water (drinking, baths, brushing teeth, washing dishesand clothes, cooking, etc.) Most of us know this but as was mentioned, constant reminders are good.

For the summer, several battery operated fans. Of course, there are hundreds of survival books and info on the web. Just use the info in them.

Later, Interstate

mikal

(05/05/2002; 17:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 74955)

@Golden Bear

If the USA gold reserves are ever auditted and found to be the 8000+ tons claimed by some- Who owns it? Its been said the Federal Reserve took ownership and custody from the US Treasury Dept. If this is so, wouldn't that make it easier to swap physical under the various scenarios discussed here today? After all, birds of feather flock together, even the scavengers.

slingshot

(05/05/2002; 18:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74956)

Seige Engine

Gold above $300.00 and climbingIt has been many days and nights that the castle has been under attack. Each day Sir Howe and his men move closer.
The Lord of the Castle has not slept well for stone by stone has entered his courtyard, his main hall, knights barracks and stores. Each day he waits the Goldbugs and their machine become more accurate. He must do something but what? Should he mount an attack with heavy horses? It is a long way across the field to their lines.As he gives thought to his battle plan he is again called to the wall.
The stones are now striking at the base of the tall tower.
Why would they be doing that when they could easily bring down the front gate. It becomes apparent as he watches the debris fall into the moat. First bring down the tower into the moat and make a second crossing. Then bring down the main gate. He would have to split his men to defend the castle. Divide and conquer.

mikal

(05/05/2002; 18:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 74957)

@Waverider

Those are both good ideas. I have seen them both. You may wish to call around your town, to the coin shops. I have purchased used sovereigns, a small panda, and other coins in 14kt bezels that way. Never paid much over melt. Some of them get a little "sweater rub" on the back or suffer from polishing, so they sell as used/circulated coins. Kind of like "wearing your colors". Definitely a worthy and subtle fashion statement or accent. The US Mint has featured gold -bezeled Eagles in their catalog, for a price (soon to be value ;))

Mr Gresham

(05/05/2002; 18:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 74958)

Golden Bear, slingshot

Nice to have a poster from Oz here (have we lost a few?)

Of course they MUST assume they can control the meltdown -- they're the Fed and it's their job, their reason for existence. They might fail, but they have to pick their best shot, whatever the likelihood.

What they need to do is pick the point of inflection, both timewise, and dollar implosion-wise, where the first level of collapse has exhausted itself a bit. What they trade on is ===== CONFIDENCE ===== and the desire to believe. If people during the collapse are afraid their world is ending, and the Fed (with media help) steps in to "restore confidence", that desire can be rounded up to sandbag the levee one more time. There are probably studies of how a collapse has been "sandbagged" in other countries (Russia '98?) and a recovery core preserved for favored players.

Slingshot -- helping people. Of course we will, but the task will be so large, it's like trying to pick up Titanic survivors in a rowboat -- they'll swamp you in minutes.

Better to use what we've LEARNED here, about money and its use in exchange systems. Local barter-type moneys sprung up during the Depression, and experiments in recent years (LETS, Ithaca NY) have touched on alternatives to centrally-printed dollars.

Helping people identify the source of their impoverishment, and how to isolate and cut off the economic leakages out of their communities in time to maintain some living standards, by using the local resources and skills at maximum efficiency, and keeping the benefits close to home...

Golden Calf

(05/05/2002; 18:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 74959)

The US$, Gold, and conventional thinking

Much of what's been written, said, and perceived
is what can be expected rhetoric, in any market
climate.
I've found it helpful to take the longer view
point, which often shows that a short term trend
may be just that, and may often confuse and confound
those that look at, and study it.

The dollar sure looks like it is about to plunge,
right?
Take a look at the index both weekly and monthly
and see if you might not change your mind.
http://209.130.50.65/cstrad/chart.htm#indices

The opposite might be true for gold.

Cavan Man

(05/05/2002; 18:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74960)

@Aristotle

A retreat, hastily beaten, might take 3-4 years in our ancient, favorite market. Recently, I read a general chastisement of the US current account imbalance by Mr Prodi. The term, "political will" was used. Where have we heard that before?

Gold is political dynamite. Understanding the politics is step one in an education to last a lifetime.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/05/2002; 18:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 74961)

ramblings

So how many sunken Spanish Galleons do they have to find to replenish the gold that is supposed to be in Fort Knox? If they can walk on the moon, can they walk around under the great depths of the sea. At $1000 or $2000 per ounce gold everybody and his brother will be fitting on tanks and playing with metal detectors. Out west there won't be any unemployment either. Just stand upwind of the dust. So gold has all its own industries associated with it. There are tons and tons of treasure out there but the cost of recovery and the risk of finding nothing are still too great. Mel Fisher will be passing out free donuts soon enough. That's what I think will happen. The price will fly upwards and bring capitalism forces into play and then "supply" will somehow arrive. The lag time though is going to prevent any breaking of this pending rally. It was 20 years ago when this scenario set up like it has. It is still not believed. It's going to knock paper-man off his chair. Then millenium-gold man will take his chair and drive his car and live in his house, and walking quietly to the mailbox sipping cappachino slow. ...................-GR2

"For a nation is no greater than that nation's womens ability to raise good children" -Iroquois Indian proverb

So let the Espaniolistas cross or borders, no one wants to dig potatoes or hang drywall anyway. Yes, open immigration for Tiawan and Korea and whoever else wants to work for a living so we can tax something. We could beat Japanese industry with Chinese industry seeing as they both hate each other so much. America could use about 40 million gold stashing oriental women too, complete with rice cookers. Then the slack out there "runnin witda bruthas" gets replaced. OK I'll stop there. Back to gold: It seems to be doing quick reactions to the dollar's fall. I think it was arbitrage dealing that made the POG rally on Friday. Gold didn't go up the whole US economy fell down by 5 bucks (the devaluation has already started).

Rock

(05/05/2002; 18:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74962)

Interstate --- Food Storage

Your right about needing extra water to use with those dehydrated foods. Water has about a year shelf life and even longer if you add a little clorex. I picked up six 50 gallon blue plastic FDA barrels right on the internet. Assuming one has the place to store them ( basement ) they arn't expensive at all and well worth it if you have the space.

I also picked up about 8 of the 15 gallon FDA barrels as well and I wish i had gone with all 15 gallon barrels in stead of the 50 galloners because the smaller barrels are easier to change the water than the big boys but bottom line is water is the most important resourse you can have when it comes to survival.

I have canned goods also and they have a good two or three year shelf life so that works good also. Juices I found go bad after about a year and you can drink them before they go bad but water is easy to change every year with less cost. And your right about a gallon a day per person "miminal" to use, for drinking 2 quarts, cooking, tea, coffee another quart and a half) and washing yourself down with a wash cloth, brushing teeth ect can go into even more, bottom line under two gallons per adult should be suffice.

Thanks for your imput and your right if you don't have the room for water storage then suppliment with juices and bottled water is the next best thing. But keep some drinking water on hand thats for sure. Thanks for your imput, we all need to know the pluses and minuses as we consider the options and unique circumstances each of us have.

Cheers, looking forwared to a big day tomorrow at the NYSE go gold.

Rock

Rock

slingshot

(05/05/2002; 19:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 74963)

Mr Gresham Msg#74958

Helping othersI do agree with you sir. We can only hope there is enough of us with the necessary skills to go around to accomplish what you stated in your last paragraph.
slingshot--------------------<>

YGM

(05/05/2002; 19:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 74964)

Food Storage...............Helpful Tip!

http://www.google.ca/search?q=Vacuum+Sealer&hl=en&btnG=Google+Search&meta=Vacuum sealing foods in Mason Jars is the absolute best way and also the least expensive....You buy flour, beans, rice etc etc in bulk w/o the preservatives found in freeze dried stuff....Anything dry can be stored for eternity this way.....Seeds for gardening have an endless mortality rate.....Ammunition stays moisture proof.....Sealing in Bags is OK for shorter periods of time but Jars are cheap and stack well in basement pantry.....Onion seed normally is only viable from one year to the next and beyond that won't germinate well.....Tests have been done with Vacuum sealed onion seed after 10 yrs, and better than 90% sprouted.....Any survival minded folk should have this unit if only to keep your Gold from tarnishing or oxidizing :>))

Hope this info is useful to some......YGM.

PS: Medicines (pills etc) store for years this way. Air is definately a deterrent to longevity of many things we take for granted on store shelves.....Heck if Boy Scouts can "Be Prepared" what's wrong with grown folks with responsibilities of family life doing the same......HUH!

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 19:21:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74965)

mikal (msg#: 74955)

Sir,

I agree, and let us not forget that the Fed is a private corporation. Who do they serve and if they have control of the bullion, who knows what kind of deals have been done under the table...

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 19:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74966)

Petroleum and PMs Lower

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The POO is lower on news of a deal being struck between the Israelis and Palestinians over the Church of the Nativity standoff in Bethlehem. Meanwhile tensions are still high after Israeli forces killed a Palestinian mother and her two children. It appears that there may be some deal in the works and so the POO is falling in response. Natural Gas has fallen in sympathy.

Gold is off slightly, though this too may be a muted reaction to the Middle East situation as well as sllight gains in the USD Index. If anyone is interested - the platinum lease rates are still rather high (in the 8% range). There is growing concern that the Russians may be unable to deliver PGMs from declining production at Norilsk. The only reason that PGMs haven't rocketed lately is due to the deepening Global Recession.

Wall Street will still be mired under relentless scandals, growing unemployment and declining corporate earnings. There just isn't any capital expenditures from US businesses to keep this house of cards standing much longer. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 19:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74967)

Golden Calf (msg#: 74959)

You are right, the dollar's current fall is only a beginning trend on the shorter time frame. All it takes is the trend to continue in the shorter time frame to become a longer term trend with a substantial price movement.

Time will reveal all...

Cheers.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/05/2002; 19:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 74968)

Golden Calf

I saw the charts. Looks like a technical bounce is about due a little lower. Still it is coming off a 3 mtn. top and the whole six month pattern is a high handle. Major resistance is at 10400. OK so say it bounces up and heads back up. Who is going to show up for $22 Billion of 5-year bond sales in late June? Have you ever tried refinancing your house with bad credit and no job. That's OK too because they can just raise the debt ceiling above 6 TRILLION doll hairs. With a 1 to 1 conversion ratio of doll hairs to dollars, which side of the trade would you want. Our currency is redeamable in Chinese made goods, plain and simple. Without the China trade the prices of goods would skyrocket. We export inflation and import deflation. US dollars used to be redeamable in hot tech stocks. Now these companies have no earnings and European blue chips will be catching a free ride as the dollar falls.

Off of this one year "leg up" of the dollar, which way will it go next? Cycles happen. The Clintoons had it all rigged so well. Bush isn't that slick of a liar. He doesn't look like JFK nor does he talk like Elvis. The past cycle cannot be repeated. We are in a depression and at best it will end up in stagflation. It could take between 5-10 years for it to recover after all the bad credit is wiped out. You'll see clothing styles change over the time period. M-3 dollars are "suspended" in derivative casinos. If they unwind the derivatives market it brings all that money back out looking for a home. If China ever gets tired of holding our bonds then how can we sell more? Bond sales are keeping the dollar up, leveraged faith. They got China to buy Japan's bonds. So the shell and the nut game goes on. Greenspan already admitted they cannot measure M-3. So the FED policy revolves around data collected domestically. The house has to be surrounded by sandbags to keep this M-3 out like a flood. That is why they invented derivatives to soak up excess M-3. It's larger than life. Our minds cannot grasp the meaning of a $16 Trillion net short position in gold derivatives. They could just close all the banks and issue new funny money. One currency backed by gold for foreign exchange and worthless scrip for those stuck on this big island. That is basically happened after 29. The foreign banks raced after all the gold certificates they could get and then they redeamed them at the treasury. FDR was forced to confiscate gold to redeam the bearer notes. China functions with a currency no one else wants. What makes you think the US won't one day end up the same way. You tell me of the fall of Rome, I'll tell you of the fall of Pompeii, the fall of Sodom was before that, and a giant flood that made the grand canyon came before that.

A weak culture will always be superceded be a stronger one.

Golden Bear

(05/05/2002; 19:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 74969)

Mr Gresham (msg#: 74958)

Ah yes, the confidence game... what a fantastic game of chess we are all involved in.

Japanese politicians, having pulled out nearly every trick in the bag over the last 10 years to convince its people that all is OK are now seeing that everything in this universe is cyclical...push the pendulum too far to the right, and it will eventually swing back to the left. They are in the process of running out of force to keep that pendulum suspended on one side.

Might not the Fed soon be in a similar position?

Fascinating...

Cavan Man

(05/05/2002; 19:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74970)

POG

In the medium term, the valuation of one ounce of pure gold has nothing to do with the Palestinians and Arabs; nothing to do with natural disasters; nothing to do with US equities and nothing to do with charts and graphs and stars and soothsayers. The reason to buy and hold gold now is purely monetary. Yes, I know many were saying same twenty years ago and yes, it is different this time.

Don't hope for bad news in the headlines. Buy gold.

IGWA

(05/05/2002; 19:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 74971)

Survival! Now We're Getting Down To It!!

Good to see the site evolving - never mind about gold, water and food is what you'll need.

When the World Council bans gold, they may come looking for your water & food too. To share with those who didn't plan ahead. Sounds fair to me.

Cheers!

igwa "Always looking on the bright side"

slingshot

(05/05/2002; 20:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 74972)

CavanMan Msg#74970

POGJust Buy Gold!
Slingshot-----------------<>

slingshot

(05/05/2002; 20:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 74973)

IGWA Msg# 74971

Think AgainWatch out for those anti-hoarding laws IGWA. They'll getcha.
Slingshot-------------<>

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 21:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 74974)

How Corrupt Is Wall Street?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_19/b3782001.htm
New revelations have investors baying for blood, and the scandal is widening

Snippit:

When Debases Kanjilal, a Queens (N.Y.) pediatrician, picked up his phone in early 2001 to call lawyer Jacob H. Zamansky, he had no idea he would whip up a full-fledged hurricane on Wall Street. Kanjilal claimed he lost $500,000 investing in Infospace Inc. (INSP), an Internet stock he says his Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) broker urged him not to sell when it was trading at $60 a share. By the time he sold, it was down to $11. Zamansky filed a novel arbitration claim against Merrill in March, 2001, in which he argued that its star Net analyst, Henry Blodget, had misled investors by fraudulently promoting the stocks of companies with which the firm had investment banking relationships. That lawsuit led directly to an investigation by New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who stunned Merrill and its Wall Street brethren three weeks ago when he made public some shocking e-mail exchanges between Merrill analysts and bankers.

Black Blade: A lot of heads are gonna roll. The likes of Henry Blodgett and Mary Meeker have left a lot of destruction in their wake and now brokerages across the land will be fines, sanctioned, and buried under an avalanche of lawsuits. This is just the beginning, wait until the telecom losses bring out the next wave of angry investors seeking retribution. And remember the day-trader a couple of years ago that killed his family and then went on a rampage killing day-traders and employees? "Interesting Times"

IGWA

(05/05/2002; 21:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 74975)

Slingshot

Yep. And it's hard to hide 20,000 gals of water.....

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 21:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 74976)

Natural-Gas Prices Rebound After Falling Most of Last Year

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020505/200205052245000118_2.html
After falling most of last year, natural-gas prices have rebounded strongly, confounding experts who had expected healthy inventories and lackluster demand to keep prices in check this spring.

The higher prices are starting to translate into higher electricity bills in some parts of the country. They have also set the stage for steeper gas-price increases later this year, should demand from power plants and industrial users pick up.

Spot natural gas was trading at about $3.65 per million British thermal units late Friday. That is still down from about $4.45 per million BTUs a year earlier, but up more than 80% from late January, when prices appeared to have bottomed out from a long, steady decline following an extraordinary price shock in late 2000.

Black Blade: These higher energy costs will eat into consumers wallets and drop to the corporate bottom line. What many analysts don't understand about the rising natural gas price is that drilling activity has fallen off sharply and without the replacement of these dwindling reserves we are looking at the very minimum of a replay of last year's energy crisis and probably an energy crisis of epic proportions. The analysts are quick to point out that NG inventory is very high. That may be true, but without a growing injection that supply will be drawn off just as quick. Not to mention that several new storage facilities have been built in order to feed the growing number of natural gas-fired power plants. What may be developing is a looming energy crisis that could hit hard when least desired (late winter-early spring). Rabid environmentalism has resulted in the loss of Alaskan energy reserves from ANWR and now the focus of environmental extremists is on the Rocky Mountain reserves from Montana to New Mexico (a major source of energy for the Rockies and California). In short, the long touted US economic recovery is very much in doubt.

Black Blade

(05/05/2002; 23:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 74977)

Why gold regained its glory

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2002/05/05/business/news/news01.asp
Snippit:

Gold Fields president and chief operating officer-designate Ian Cockerill put it this way at the Paydirt Conference in Perth in March: "As they say in the movies, if it walks like a bull, and talks like a bull, then a bull it is."

Anglogold's chief executive Bobby Godsell is positive gold will hold onto its current prices - Friday's $312 per ounce was a 26-month high - and the group is reducing its hedge book dramatically. (Miners hedge or sell forward output to lock in prices as a protection against price falls. They lose out, however, if prices rise above those that have been contracted.)

Gold and the US dollar, the saying goes, enjoy a counter-cyclical relation: dollar strong, gold down; dollar weak, gold up. But it is perhaps simplistic to attribute gold's good fortune only to the plight of the US dollar - which has lost clout over other currencies.

The big question, though, remains: How long can it last? "You may as well ask, 'How long is a piece of string?'," says Cockerill. Vague answer and probably a stupid question - but then he did suggest the dollar's recovery was still a long way off. "There was a time when people spoke of gold as a barbarous relic, that its time was over."

That was just two decades ago, but, as he points out, gold has been viewed as a safe haven, an insurance asset, if not the only insurance asset, for two millennia. "Two thousand years of history is not wiped out within two decades." And despite the fact that demand outstrips new mine supply by more than 1 000 tons a year, the market is comfortable that supply deficit can be serviced from new mine supplies, supplemented by Central Bank sales and producer hedging. Cockerill points out that there has been very little investment in reserve replenishment or exploration since 1997. But a higher gold price, on a steady fixed course, could address that.

Black Blade: The situation is that world Gold supply will continue to decline in the face of declining mine reserves and virtually no new exploration. There will be no supply from Central Banks (never was) as they only trade among themselves for the most part. With a weakening US Dollar, tensions in the ME, declining stock markets, insolvent banking systems from Argentina to Japan to Russia to (insert name here), unwinding of hedge books, etc. The POG is more than likely to move to much higher levels over the next several months.

Sierra Madre

(05/05/2002; 23:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 74978)

Sierra Madre reporting from Norwegian Majesty, mid Atlantic...

Had a very interesting conversation with a prominent Peruvian lawyer from Lima this evening, on this cruise ship sailing to Bermuda.

This lawyer was strongly impressed with the argument for a silver currency for Peru - one of the largest producers of silver in the world. It was fascinating to see how the idea took hold.

The I.M.F. is seen, in Peru, as a vindictive institution that imposes policies completely detrimental to Peru. For instance, absolutely no assistance to agriculture is to be allowed; this, while the U.S. passes legislation in favor of $180 billion in agricultural assistance to U.S. farmers over a 10 year period!

There is only ONE way to achieve some sort of national independence with regard to policies which favor the nations of Latin America, and that is through a monetary system that is not parasitical on the U.S. dollar - a money that has its own intrinsic value, and thus does not have to rely on reserves of U.S. dollars. Otherwise, Latin America will be forever dancing to the U.S. dollar tune.

Once ideas begin to germinate, there is no telling what the consequences will be.

The President of Peru may soon be hearing about silver, and as he is struggling to retain popularity, and has no clear program for his country, he just MIGHT take up the flag of monetary reform based on silver.
......

So much material on usagold this evening! Hard to read it all! Exciting times; this intellectual ferment heralds BIG changes ahead. Is it too far-fetched to compare with the ideas that were being discussed in the Colonies in 1775? Look at what happened in '76.

The Revolutionary Patriots in America had their "Committees of Correspondence" to exchange views. This the internet provides today.

"Don't tread on me"

Sierra

Gandalf the White

(05/06/2002; 00:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74979)

SPOT is getting ready to JUMP !!!

<;-)

Spartacus

(05/06/2002; 01:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 74980)

UK's Griffiths sees UK in euro within 2 yrs

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_581952.html?menu=business.currencynews
Nigel Griffiths, the Small Business Minister, predicted that the UK will adopt the euro within two years.

He told The Times newspaper: "I think we will be in (the euro) within two years if things go as they are and we meet our economic tests, and my hunch is we will."

Belgian

(05/06/2002; 03:18:35 MDT - Msg ID: 74981)

USAGOLD # 74944 The Golden Choice

Gold, at present, is indeed a Very convenient parking place, from all possible points of vieuw. The massive proliferation of Debt-Weed into the economic garden must be destroyed together with many good crops, before new harvests can be organized. The actual rolling scandals are an addition to the underlying mega-scandal of currency falsification ! This is * SYSTEMIC * ! And it is the full meaning of "systemic" that is not understood by the masses.
They still do mix accidental cyclic waves (infla/defla-blahblah) with systemic linear detoriation (permanent currency depreciation). Two completely different processes.

Gold's parking place will evolve to a Gold headquarter and later on to "the" reference anchor-point.

Compare this process with what happened (accidently) in France on the political arena. Ultra conservative and anti Euroland, Le Pen, lost his retrospective nostalgia, against a modern reality of European unification. Five years ago, everyone talked (cynicaly) about the euro as zeuro (zero) !
See what a difference a (voting) day makes !

The balancing between trust/distrust of a currency and its GoldValue, remains a very, very delicate and difficult task for all monetary managers. The "perceptions" of the general public with regard to their respective currency and its alternative(s) require a lot of emotional intelligence from the ones who have this job of perception-management.
Panic and euphoria are so close to each other. Therefore, GOLD must operate under cover !

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 03:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 74982)

Asia Awash in Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are negative this morning. Today should be an interesting battle as foriegn nations struggle to maintain a weaker currency against the USD. Foriegn manufacturers are working overtime to maintain a weaker currency for manufacturers to export cheaper goods to the US. Even so, the USD in grossly overvalued. It could get interesting today in NY.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 04:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 74983)

Iraq to resume oil exports overnight on Tuesday

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=12010169
Snippit:

BAGHDAD: Iraq will resume oil exports, suspended for a month in retaliation for Israel's West Bank offensive against the Palestinians, on the night of Tuesday-Wednesday (May 7-8), state television announced here Sunday. The decision to resume crude exports halted on April 8 was taken during the weekly cabinet meeting chaired by President Saddam Hussein following the failure of other Arab oil producers to join the embargo, it said.

But "brotherly Arab oil producers did not respond to the Iraqi initiative by taking similar steps such that everyone would succeed" in achieving the objectives of the boycott, the cabinet said, according to the TV report. Iraq, which exports around two million barrels of oil a day, halted crude exports on April 8 for at least 30 days in protest at Israel's military assault on the West Bank, which the Palestinians say killed hundreds, and US support for the Jewish state.

Black Blade: Oil prices have dropped overnight. Iraq threw a party and no one came. Besides, the US imports about 1 million bbl/day of Iraqi oil.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 04:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 74984)

USD Gains, PMs Fall, Petroleum Falls

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
World currencies are falling against the USD, Gold is lower, and petroleum prices are falling hard on reduced recession demand.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 05:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 74985)

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett predicts a nuclear attack on America

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020506/ap_wo_en_ge/us_buffett_nuclear_attack_1
Snippit:

OMAHA, Nebraska - Investment guru Warren Buffett (news) offered a bleak prediction for the nation's national security, saying a terrorist attack on American soil is "virtually a certainty." Envy and dislike of the United States have fueled rage against the country even as the ability to build a nuclear device has spread, Buffett said Sunday at the final day of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s annual meeting. "We're going to have something in the way of a major nuclear event in this country," said Buffett, the firm's chief operating officer. "It will happen. Whether it will happen in 10 years or 10 minutes, or 50 years ... it's virtually a certainty." Washington and New York would be the top two targets because terrorists want to traumatize the country and kill as many people as possible, Buffett said.

Black Blade: Well, if the target is Washington I don't see much downside. That's one way to clear out the deadwood.

Golden Bear

(05/06/2002; 05:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 74988)

Black Blade (msg#: 74985)

"Well, if the target is Washington I don't see much downside. That's one way to clear out the deadwood."

For a potentially horrific topic, your comment is damn funny!

Cheers.

Rock

(05/06/2002; 05:46:54 MDT - Msg ID: 74989)

Warren Buffet lashes out calling Wall Street Crooks

For the second richest man in the world call wall street crooks upset quite a lot of people out there but he expresses our sentiments exactly.

"Snippit" "Many of the crooks look like crooks," said Mr Buffett. "Wall Street loves them as long as they are pushing out securities." Mr Buffett, known affectionately as the Sage of Omaha, said a good way to spot possible frauds was to keep a close eye on those companies that reported results using Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation).

Mr Munger, 78, also sounded a warning over companies involved in derivatives, saying. "To say derivative accounting in America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage," he fumed.

Mr Buffett also backed a call made last week by Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, to clamp down on the "shameful" way that companies inflated their profits by excluding employee share options from the main body of their accounts.

He did not expect regulators to heed Mr Greenspan's call, however, because chief executives were lobbying hard in Washington and "get what they want every year".

Cheers,

Rock
"Snippit"

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2002; 06:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 74990)

Muddy Puddles

Sometimes it's best just not to say anything...

Golden Bear

(05/06/2002; 06:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 74991)

Mythical (msg#: 74986) Ponderings from former knights

Firstly, I don't recall Another or FOA putting a time limit on when their view of the future would transpire... strike 1.

Secondly, the quote..

" It's already stamped, minted, on their coins: $1 Silver and
$50 Gold. Dollars of a New Reality."

is an absolute farce. Since when did the Fed and US Treasury become Gods and decided what the intrinsic worth of bullion would be by stamping some arbitrary value on their minted coins... strike 2.

Thirdly, the quote..

"Sure, the Europeans are good people. I'm not denigrating them. And they too
are no dummies. Sweeping their Euro pride aside, they know the strength of the
US$ is a favorable situation. Else their exports crash. Their jobs crash. Their
entire economies crash. First. The USA may crash as well. But recovery, if it
comes will be US$ based, and the priming engine will be the USA economy."

he got his argument ass backward. The dollar will sink when it is perceived that the US economy is going down the toilet, and they will not reinvest dollars into dollar denominated assets. Their exports will continue, allbeit at a continually slower rate, but they have already realized that US asset classes are way overvalued for the returns (if any) they currently provide and are turning off the taps... strike 3.

Thai Gold, Diogenes...you're out!

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 06:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74992)

Analysts' pay linked to winning banking deals-WSJ

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020506/financial_analysts_report_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Analysts were offered bonuses and a percentage of the profits from investment banking deals in recent years, job contracts from major Wall Street firms show, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Monday.

Black Blade: Another smoking gun? Hmmm�

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 06:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74993)

Peregrine Systems Announces Internal Accounting Investigation

SAN DIEGO -(Dow Jones)- Peregrine Systems Inc. (PRGN) is conducting an internal investigation into possible accounting problems and announced the resignation of its chairman and chief executive and chief financial officer. In a press release Monday, Peregrine said its board authorized an audit committee investigation into possible inaccuracies brought to its attention by KPMG, the company's independent auditors. KPMG was hired by Peregrine in April to replace Arthur Andersen LLP for the audit of the company's recently completed fiscal year....

Black Blade: Yep, another accounting scandal. Guess who the auditor is. Of course it's Arthur Andersen! Who else could it be? PRGN is off over 50% this morning as they will go tits up just like other AA audited companies.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 06:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 74994)

Peregrine to investigate accounting, CEO, CFO quit

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020506/tech_peregrine_1.html
Snippit:

SAN DIEGO, May 6 (Reuters) - Software maker Peregrine Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:PRGN - news) on Monday said it was investigating potential accounting inaccuracies and announced the resignation of its top two executives. The company said the focus of the probe is $100 million of revenue recorded during fiscal 2001 and 2002. Transactions were recorded initially as revenue from indirect channels and may have been written off in later quarters, it said.

Black Blade: well well, now they are dropping like flies. Legal investigation rumors are now flying!

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 06:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 74995)

BHP Billiton drops Andersen after 60 years

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3L718UR0D&live=true&tagid=FTD3ANIJFEC⊂heading=mining
Snippit:

BHP Billiton, the world's biggest resources group, has dumped Andersen as its auditor after more than 60 years of service. The move, which comes less than a month after News Ltd, the Australian arm of Rupert Murdoch's media group, also dropped the embattled firm, is a blow to Ernst & Young which is taking over Andersen's local practice.

Black Blade: Interesting move as today is the first day of the Arthur Andersen trial. Paper Shredder extraordinaire David Duncan is expected to testify. Meanwhile, companies are dropping AA like a hot potato.

Cavan Man

(05/06/2002; 07:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 74996)

Mr Gresham

{0}

Interstate

(05/06/2002; 07:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 74997)

Anderson Accounting Firm

Yes, BB, and I also saw that Bank of China, Hong Kong has switched from Anderson to Price Waterhouse.

Interstate

Interstate

(05/06/2002; 08:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 74998)

@Leigh

Leigh, what's the point? I'm sure that Mr. Vronsky likes to make his own decisions. Reminds me of how teachers (Mr. Vronsky) think that a tattle-tale (Leigh) is suggesting that the teacher is unaware or has no concern for what goes on in his classroom (forum).

Even I, who seldom posts (but always reads) could tell what was/is going on. Please don't taint this elite forum.

Well wishes,
Interstate

YGM

(05/06/2002; 08:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 74999)

What's Up With This..........Russian Market 1929 style????

Russia Moscow Times ^MTMS 8:54am 3417.18... -1455.70... -29.87% Are these numbers for real????

Leigh

(05/06/2002; 08:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75000)

Interstate

Hi, Interstate. I understand how you feel, since I have seen other people get ratted on and felt incensed about it. This particular issue goes deep (lots of behind the scenes stuff) and has to do with someone who has made a serious personal vendetta of trying to harm this site.

I realize that Dr. Vronsky is capable of making his own decisions. I just thought he could use additional information. He can do what he wants to with it.

Again, I apologize to the many good people who had nothing to do with what happened last night and this morning.

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2002; 08:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75001)

Sierra, IGWA

IGWA: "Always looking on the bright side"

Now I'm gonna have Monty Python in my head all day (whistling included)

Sierra: Great post -- hope the cruise is as good. It's an amazing thought to imagine that an random meeting could spark an idea like that -- it's already so logical an arrival point for several Latin American countries -- but, with all the Harvard-trained (apologies to Reg & Vieira) lawyers running things, you never know what fiatic orifice they need to pull their heads out of...

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2002; 09:04:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75002)

Leigh

If you've been on other, unmoderated, forums, you know what a "troll" is. A troll is a poster whose intention is to disrupt the forum, ridicule other posters, and made the forum fail in its purpose of sharing information and opinions.

The amazing thing about this place is that (I don't think) we've ever had a troll around here. We've had ornery, argumentative opinionators, but I think there's even room for a couple, some have even been among our most helpful posters in elucidating ideas, and they have usually been willing to hear it when someone else says to them: Whoa, enough.

I missed lots of arguments (tend to skip over long posts that look like repetition) in days of yore, and most of them should have ended with "agreeing to disagree." If someone will not take that advice, then they are indeed tending "trollward".

In order to "watch this new gold market" together, it takes open, CIVIL, minds. I think any gold forum should be open to those who wish to abide by that standard. (And limit their consumption to one Negra Modelo -- mea culpa -- while posting ;) ;) ;)

RobotGuy

(05/06/2002; 09:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75003)

Hey There!!

Today seems to be a very silent day all around. No gold bouncing, no real market activity, no new mayhems starting in the ME, all the robots are behaving here at work, I think I'll take the day off and go hiking. It's pleasantly warm here in southern Ontario, and the air smells of spring. (I don't live too close to any major metropolis)

Perhaps spike will come tearing out of the brushes and startle us all!

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.

YGM

(05/06/2002; 09:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75004)

Very Interesting 4 Page Article.....

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,235385-1,00.htmlInside Saddam's world...Very revealing views...

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(05/06/2002; 09:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75005)

Hedge Funds Riding Golden Stallion. . . .NEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

MarkeTalk

(05/06/2002; 11:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75006)

Treasury reporting requirements for gold

Ever since news broke on April 23rd that the Treasury is introducing new dealer reporting requirements for gold I have been pondering the form and content that such regulations might take. See my post #74183 of that same date. I don't think for one moment that any of this is related to anti-terrorism but rather it is about gaining total financial control over our lives. Gold represents ultimate money and thus freedom from a collapsing paper money system. And the insiders in Washington know what is happening--notwithstanding assurances from Paul O'Neill last Friday on CNBC.

Now let us assume the Establishment's premise that gold is being used to finance terrorist activities against the US, then it makes sense for the Establishment to implement rules and regulations to track the purchase of said gold. It makes no sense to have dealers such as Centennial report only when a suspected terrorist sells back to us because the dastardly deed will have already been committed. Thus, I predict that all purchases from dealers will be subject to reporting requirements. The only question is: Will there be exceptions for small purchases. Logic says "yes" but when did logic ever convince government bureaucrats of anything?

The second item worth noting is possible investor reaction to the reporting requirements. In my memorandum entitled "How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation" (which is available from Centennial by e-mail) I pointed out that 1984 was the year when the IRS introduced dealer-reporting requirements when gold was sold back from the public. This new requirement caused gold investors to dump their Krugerrands and Maple Leafs en masse and to buy U.S. $20 gold pieces. The premiums on these coins took off like a skyrocket. In fact, I believe that the IRS requirements were a major factor behind the rare coin bull market which peaked a short five years later in 1989.

I firmly believe that the spectre of the new dealer- reporting requirements will cause gold investors to flock to the pre-1933 gold coins (both U.S. and European). We have already seen evidence of that trend here at Centennial over the last 12 days. And the premiums on U.S. coinage are rising, in some cases rather dramatically. I also believe that we will be shocked at how dramatic the increases will be. My advice remains the same as ever: Acquire gold at these cheap price levels but be sure to buy the right kind of gold (pre-1933 coins) for maximum privacy and protection. And now you can expect to receive an added bonus: extra profit due to the limited number of pre-1933 coins available. Don't wait until the crowd hears about this.

GC

Cavan Man

(05/06/2002; 11:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75007)

@Marke Talk

The dealer reporting requirement on Maples and Krands was meant to encourage sales of Eagles (new at that time). I can still sell up to 20 ounces of either (KR or M) without a report required. That is my understnading. Please correct me if I am in error

If you are required to tell a third party who your customers are, how does the third party really gain? Information for information's sake is worthless.

Old Yeller

(05/06/2002; 12:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75008)

The Enron 9

http://www.thenation.com/docPrint.mhtml?i=20020513&s=greider
Wonder where the Enron story went?

Calm before the storm,this legal tome sounds like quite an explosive document.Good discussion on the ramifactions of repealing the Glass-Steagel.

YGM

(05/06/2002; 12:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75009)

GATA .....E-Mail

Quiet enough for complete post here.....DERIVATIVES MAY BE THE REAL BOMB

By Thom Calandra
www.cbs.marketwatch.com
May 6, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Berkshire Hathaway's Buffett is
an insurance executive, so he's entitled to talk about risk from
nuclear bombs.

Why shouldn't he? Palestinian supporter Sultan Abul-Aynayn
not so long ago was quoted as saying, "If one hair on the head
of Yasser Arafat is harmed, the U.S. had better protect its
interests around the world. We are not like Osama bin Laden,
but we have our own style of response."

That's "a chilling warning," says James Dines, editor of
pro-gold The Dines Letter in California. "Should the safety of
all Americans depend on Ariel Sharon's decision whether or
not to kill Arafat?" Sharon was in Washington on Monday,
headed to the White House.

But Warren Buffett, the world's second richest person, also
talks about derivatives. He and his right-hand man rate
derivatives somewhere below sewage. As the head of a
large, multi-billion-dollar enterprise, Buffett and his partner,
Charles Munger, are qualified to talk about the use of
options, futures, lending, leverage and other practices
known commonly as "derivatives."

Buffett figures derivatives will mess up lots of companies.
Berkshire Hathaway's reinsurance unit, General Re, is
registering some losses as it closes the loop on derivatives
contracts. Munger was quoted this weekend, at the annual
Buffett-fest, as saying, "To say derivative accounting in
America is in the sewer is an insult to sewage."

That would make Dell Computer (DELL), in a $1 billion-plus
derivatives boo-boo, an insult to sewage.

That would make scores of companies that take
off-balance-sheet hits to earnings because of their
once-fancy artificial hedges, joint ventures and extreme
leverage -- an insult to sewage.

Those derivative tangles include, in a strange twist of
fate, a few hedged gold companies. The gold sector is
among the North American stock market's biggest gainers
this year.

John C. Doody, editor of the numbers-crunching Gold Stock
Analyst newsletter, figures Barrick Gold in its latest reported
quarter saw the mark-to-market value of its so-called hedge
book drop to a negative $121 million as of March 31 from a
positive $380 million on June 30, 2001.

Barrick, one of the world's largest bullion miners, uses
written "call" option contracts and other derivative devices
and gold lending practices to enhance the price it gets for
its ounces of gold. The so-called hedging in the
"spot-deferred market" works well when gold is flat or down
in price, not so well when gold prices are rising, as they are
now.

Doody at Gold Stock Analyst puts the negative swing of the
company's hedge book at $507 million. "This swing far
offsets the net profits earned of $46 mil in the first quarter of
2002 plus the $66 million in the third quarter of 2001 plus the
$82 million in the fourth quarter of 2001. The net is a loss of
$313 million."

In a conference call last week, Barrick's executives assured
questioning Wall Street analysts, who asked numerous
questions about the company's gold-hedging, they were
monitoring the situation. Yet some observers are not
convinced.

"The sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at
about $21 an ounce," says Douglas Pollitt at Pollitt & Co.
in Toronto. "Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold
price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative
contracts) drop by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce,
the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."

Gold prices this year have risen to $312 an ounce from
$270 at the start of January.

Pollitt calculates the notional value of Barrick's
spot-deferred contracts at 18 million ounces. "Add to this
another 5 million in written call options, (which the company
now calls 'variable priced sales contracts'), and, one way
or another, the company is short about 23 million ounces
of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question:
Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"

CBS MarketWatch placed a call to Barrick's Toronto
headquarters on Monday regarding the company's
exposure to the hedged market and was awaiting a
response.

The writer of a call option is giving the purchaser of that
contract the right to buy something, in this case gold, at
a strike price written in the contract. In exchange, the writer
of the option receives a little money, a premium. The
strategy for selling a call option is usually to enhance the
value of a security or a commodity when the investment is
declining in price, something that had been happening to
gold for years, until January.

Barrick, to its credit, said in its report to investors that
it will reduce exposure to hedging this year. The Toronto
company, world's second largest gold producer after
Newmont Mining, says it earned $46 million for the March
quarter, down from $87 million in the year-ago three-month
period.

Barrick, according to its quarterly report, sold half its gold
in the spot-deferred market for $365 an ounce. The fact that
it sold the other half in the spot market was a first for the
company. Barrick stated it expects half its gold for the
remainder of the year to be sold in the spot market, where
an ounce of gold is attached to no derivatives and gets
exactly what the spot market is dictating for bullion.

Barrick also estimates that for every $25 increase in the
gold price, the company's annual earnings and cash flow
rise by approximately $70 million. "In total, 22 percent of
reserves, or 18 million ounces, are sold forward using
spot-deferred contracts at an average minimum price of
$344 per ounce, deliverable at the company's option
over the next 15 years," the company stated to investors.
"This position is down from 18.2 million ounces in the last
quarter of 2001 at an average price of $365 an ounce."

Of course, if gold prices were to shoot far higher, in rapid
fashion, Barrick, as a writer of call options, could find itself
required to deliver gold to buyers at prices that are below
the spot price of gold. Other distortions of the gold market
are possible in a gold rally.

Pollitt, the Toronto analyst, says theory and reality are like
night and day. "Converting dollars into gold is quite different
than converting gold into dollars," he said Monday morning.
"When the dreaded yellow metal was in the doldrums and
nobody cared, well, Barrick might have had a way out. But
now? Now you've got good company on the bid, now
you've got all those dollars chasing what little gold is left.
And any whiff that Barrick had stepped into the ring looking
for 23 million ounces would set the market ablaze."

Large gold producer Anglogold in South Africa this year
said it would continue to reduce its reliance on the
forward-sale, or hedging, of its gold production.
Non-hedged gold miners, led by Gold Fields of South
Africa, have seen their stocks outpace the gains of hedgers
Barrick and Anglogold by wide margins this year. Gold
Fields, its shares poised to shift to the New York Stock
Exchange on Thursday, is up almost 175 percent this
year vs. a 30 percent stock price gain for Barrick and
60 percent for Anglogold.

The use of derivatives in many different forms has
supporters, lukewarm and otherwise. Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan in February testimony said
derivatives have "contributed to the development of a
far more flexible and efficient financial system."

Greenspan was not referring to any particular industry,
like waste management. Those sewers are best left to
derivative accountants, Buffett and Munger would say.

-END-

YGM

(05/06/2002; 12:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75010)

Barrick the next Enron?...........Go Gold>>>>>>

Staggering Numbers........"The sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at
about $21 an ounce," says Douglas Pollitt at Pollitt & Co.
in Toronto. "Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold
price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative
contracts) drop by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce,
the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."

YGM

(05/06/2002; 12:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75011)

Gold vs Silver

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville050602.htmlArticle by Steve Saville......

YGM

(05/06/2002; 12:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75012)

Barrick soon to be caught in a "Short Squeeze"

What Justice It Would BE!Quote....

Pollitt, the Toronto analyst, says theory and reality are like
night and day. "Converting dollars into gold is quite different
than converting gold into dollars," he said Monday morning.
"When the dreaded yellow metal was in the doldrums and
nobody cared, well, Barrick might have had a way out. But
now? Now you've got good company on the bid, now
you've got all those dollars chasing what little gold is left.
And any whiff that Barrick had stepped into the ring looking
for 23 million ounces would set the market ablaze."

****ABX buying in a squeeze and contributing to their own demise. Only one thing regretable.....Sheeple shareholders left with the empty bag.....Talk about food for a future "Class Action Lawsuit".....The days just keep getting more Interesting!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/06/2002; 13:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75013)

NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted 1800's). For bullion and other selections, please call us!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be...

...Priceless.

Call Centennial for Arrangements or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115

Old Yeller

(05/06/2002; 14:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75014)

"If there is a bank run,you want to be there first"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020505/bonds_psychology_1.html
Interesting look at the nagging doubts piling up on the bond investor's psychology.

"There is a rising group consciousness that is leaving even some bond investors immobilized,because they don't know what information they can trust and what they are going to do next.It has gone beyond simply worry."

Is the next stop the Treasury bond market?

That statement could apply equally well to the Fed,the Treasury and the BLS.

Goldfly

(05/06/2002; 14:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75015)

Well, here at least is something different.......

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=0
Gold is spiking up early overseas....

Gandalf the White

(05/06/2002; 14:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75016)

WELCOME, SPIKE !!!

JUMP, SPOT !!!
JUMP
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/06/2002; 14:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75017)

Nice to see you and SPIKE again, Goldfly !!

Ari is now back and I am awaiting the return of Aragorn III.
Just had a roll of THUNDER here -- first that it has happened for quite a while !!!
Aragorn's "LIGHTING" should follow soon.
<;-)

The Hoople

(05/06/2002; 14:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75018)

Gandalf the White

Spike's been eating steroid-laced Kibbles n' Bits. He's on his way to Toronto to hike his leg on the ABX schrubs. They probably will die.

RobotGuy

(05/06/2002; 14:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75019)

Interesting After Hours Activity

I've noticed before the little bit of activity with POG, but usually it dips down momentarily and then back to it's current level. Whose market does this area cover? COMEX closes around 2:00pm eastern usually.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 14:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75020)

Wall Street Workers Face Worst Market In 40 Years

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNYsZRVoV2FsbCBT
Snippit:

Securities firms have cut 40,000 jobs in the past year, forcing many traders, bankers and analysts into unemployment in the worst Wall Street job market in 25 years. With few job prospects, some are struggling to stir up fresh leads, while others, lucky to have severance pay or low living expenses, are pursuing long-ignored dreams and passions.

``The music has completely stopped in some parts of the industry,'' said Larry Post, founder and chief executive of Streetjobs.com, a Web site for trading, banking and other security firm positions. ``Wall Street over-hires and over-fires. Right now, we're in over-fire mode.'' Of the 40,000 lost jobs -- the most since Richard Nixon was president, according to the U.S. Department of Labor -- 20,400 were in New York City. Across the nation, unemployment last month climbed to 6 percent, the highest since August 1994.

Black Blade: The Wall Street "Bone Pile" will grow as new investigations and law suits are about to commence with revelations that securities analysts were compensated for bringing in corporate business in a clear conflict of investors interests. Look for $Billions in lawsuit judgements and possible legal action by the SEC. These revelations have had a profound effect on Wall Street today with the DOW down nearly 200 pts., NASDAQ down nearly 35 pts., and the S&P 500 down over 20 points. It should drop much more as the market indices remain grossly over-valued.

Also, Winn-Dixie announces that it will contribute 5,300 to the growing "Bone Pile".

jayzee

(05/06/2002; 15:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75021)

Dow loses after PM market closes

I have noticed that on down days for the Dow, the PPT keeps the loss small until the PM market closes, then it lets it freefall!

I believe that they are trying to prevent investors from going from stocks to precious metals in a panic.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 15:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75022)

Lower USD, Higher Gold, and Wall Street

The USD should continue to drop overnight as the foreign investor is not interested in USD denominated investments anymore. The recent market action, lack of corporate earnings and the prospect of FED inaction tomorrow may mean that dollars will leave US shores. Also, Moody's has announced that any legal action against Wall Street firms and bankers "will" result in credit rating downgrades. This is not a pretty picture for Wall Street. The result is that investors just might seek out safe havens � like Gold � until all this blows over. IMO it cannot "blow over" until all the excesses are squeezed out of the markets. Hold on to your pants because it's going to get mighty rough!

- Black Blade

TownCrier

(05/06/2002; 15:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75023)

Another end-of-day snapshot...very similar to that provided last Monday

http://www.usagold.com/mkpics/forum/ino06may02.gifstocks down
bonds down
dollar down
commodity index down

gold UP

Two Monday's in a row.

Contrary to popular belief, gold is not *necessarily* tightly correlated -- positively or negatively -- with the various markets in stocks, dollars, or commodities as a group. Thanks to the particulars of its market's means for price discovery, gold has tremendous potential for independent movement upward regardless of all other market performance -- assuming the physical trade succeeds in shattering the prevailing paper illusion. A "one-time adjustment" is called for. Without it, gold remains a very safe and stable insurance policy. With it, gold becomes the investment permormer of a lifetime. You can't really lose, whatever the outcome. So, the question goes, are you in?

R.

Graefin

(05/06/2002; 16:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75024)

Riding the Golden Bull

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?PfvID=2179Hey guys...ah, girls too...the hubby found an excellent read...deals with the current gold market and recent market history. Here are some snips:
By Derek K. Van Artsdalen

Snippet 1: "The question got me thinking, though, about what we gold and silver bugs might expect when the next true gold bull market begins. How high is high? For that matter, how do we know for certain when the bull's run has actually begun? And, finally, what signs do we look for to clue us in on when the bull has ultimately run its course?"

Snippet 2: "Of Tulips and Technology

To begin with, how do we know when a gold bull market has actually started? In answering that question, it's important to make a crucial point and one which all precious metals investors should understand clearly: bull markets always begin for a reason (or, more likely, for several reasons). In other words, a commodity doesn't increase drastically in price just because it appears to be undervalued. Or because it holds sentimental value (think of the poor fellow who purchased gold at $400 per ounce in the late �80s or early �90s, only to watch it languish for the next decade or more!). And it certainly doesn't rise just because it appears inexpensive relative to its chart history.

No, my friends, gold will never rise merely because a group of diehard investors wants it to rise. It will rise in value, as all other commodities from T-Bills to tulips, from pork bellies to belly dancers, from bonds to Buicks, for one reason and one reason alone: perceived demand begins to exceed perceived supply. Until that happens, expect the price of gold to remain relatively stable and range-bound.

Why do I use the word "perceived"? Because it is the average investor's perception that motivates him to invest (or dis-invest). When the Dutch tulip mania was unfolding, there was never an actual shortage of tulips -- only a perceived shortage. The average investor, not understanding the situation, concluded that there just weren't enough doggoned tulips in the world, and he began paying outrageous sums of money for them. As with all manias, reality ultimately asserted itself and proved, after all, that tulips were in quite plentiful supply relative to actual demand, and the price came plummeting back to levels which few investors imagined they would ever again witness only weeks prior to the inevitable crash. (The old saying is that trees don't grow to the sky. Evidently, this is equally true for tulips.)

We need look back no farther than 1999 and early 2000 to see a modern example of a classic mania: the now-infamous NASDAQ "bubble." Here was a situation where the perceived need far exceeded the perceived supply. To use just one example, investors (be honest now: were you one of them!?) were crawling over each other to buy up all the telecom and fiber optic companies they could identify, because everyone "knew" that there just wasn't enough fiber in the ground. We all know now, of course, that the actual supply/demand fundamentals were a far different story. But we didn't realize how overbought this and other tech sectors had become (unless we were members of LeMetropoleCafe!) until hundreds of billions of investor dollars had been squandered forever on various telecom, biotech and other technology-related "investments."

So what do the prices of tulips and tech stocks have to do with the present-day gold situation? Just this: as the GATA camp has been shouting from the treetops for years now, the artificial price manipulations of the gold and silver markets have given investors the perception that gold and silver supplies far exceed gold and silver demand � the exact reverse of the situation which develops in a mania. The reality is, both gold and silver usage are increasing annually while supplies are actually declining! "Holy Conspiracy, Batman! The Joker is secretly confiscating their wealth while the citizens of Gotham dance in the streets!" And before you know it, investors around the world, believing they were investing in a legitimate free market, were WHAMMed, BAMMed and KA-POWed out of their hard-earned dollars, rubles, pesos, francs and rupees."

Snippet 3: "Which leads me back to my original point: what are the characteristics of an emerging � and a dying � bull market in gold, and how do we make a buck or two from the historical lessons?

First, if we look back at the most famous gold bull in modern history from August 1979 to September 1980, we find that its foundation was being laid far earlier, beginning about mid-1977. To re-emphasize, bull markets happen for specific reasons, and the reasons back then were legion: economic imbalances, high unemployment, high interest rates, large trade deficits, etc. Other than the high interest rates, do any of these things ring a bell today?"

Okay...enough snips...go click on the link and enjoy your read!
Peace!
- Gr�fin

Siochain

(05/06/2002; 16:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75025)

Lots of Gold Shorts

From the Daily Reckoning:
(Partial_
"- But even though things are looking a little rough for
the economy at the moment, a short-term stock market
rally would not be a total surprise. That's because many
of the short-term sentiment indicators like the "Bullish
Consensus" and the "MarketVane" are registering fairly
extreme bearish readings, which, from a contrarian
standpoint, is bullish.

- The opposite phenomenon is occurring in the gold
market. Suddenly, everyone seems to be bullish on gold.
That's quite a change for the "yellow dog." Over the
course of two superb decades for stocks, most investors
learned to hate gold, or at least to ignore it. But now
that stocks are flirting with three straight losing
years in a row - for the first time since the Great
Depression - gold doesn't seem so repugnant anymore. In
fact, it is becoming dangerously close to being popular!

- Most of the short-term sentiment indicators on gold
are very bullish, which therefore is bearish.
Furthermore, the commercial traders (considered the
"smart money"), tracked by the weekly commitment of
traders report, have amassed their largest short
position in gold in more than six years.

- Such extreme Commitment of Traders readings are
certainly not foolproof indicators of market direction,
but they do suggest that the metal is close to a near-
term top. As for the long-term, who knows? But gold
probably deserves the benefit of the doubt, given the
precarious state of the U.S. dollar.

- The U.S. current account deficit is running close to
5% of GDP. In other words, we borrow more than $1
billion a day from foreigners just to keep the lights
turned on at America, Inc.

- This massive current account deficit will not be a
problem, the experts assure us, so long as foreigners
continue to invest in the U.S. But the dollars' recent
weakness suggests that some foreigners, at least, are
withdrawing from the U.S. already.

- "The most interesting development of late in global
markets has not been the renewed weakness on Wall Street
but the wobbles in the U.S. dollar," says Christopher
Wood of breakingviews.com. "The intellectual rationale
for pouring money into America in recent years, namely
superior investment returns, has now been proven false
given that this is the third year running that the U.S.
stock market has so far failed to deliver positive
returns."

- Wood continues: "The Economist proclaims in its latest
issue that the American current account deficit is 'an
accident waiting to happen.' This may not be a
particularly original statement. But, however seemingly
banal, it happens to be true..."

*** While nearly everyone waits for the resumption of
the bull market in stocks, most people expect the rally
in gold to end any minute. "Equities always reward
patient, long-term investors," say Rukeyser's elves and
other mythmakers. "Gold, on the other hand, always
disappoints," they say. Gold timers were 90% bullish in
February. But now that the metal is $10 higher, only
37.5% of their money is in gold; the rest of it is in
cash.

*** "This is a textbook case of what is often seen at
the beginning of sustainable rallies," explains my old
friend, Mark Hulbert. "As contrarians constantly remind
us, bull markets don't like company; they thrive when
relatively few advisers and investors have jumped on
their bandwagon. This is why contrarians were not
particularly surprised that gold's rally stalled in mid-
February...Today, in contrast, gold at $310 per ounce
has fewer cheerleaders than it did three months ago when
gold was trading at a lower price."

*** Gold up...dollar down. You might want to get used to
the sound of that...it might be in the news for a long
time. Last week, the dollar had its "biggest drop since
January," according to the Bloomberg report. Since the
end of March, the greenback index is down 4.3%. Friday's
trading left the euro up 142 points - to 91.52 cents.
The smart money is leaving the dollar and moving to
gold.:

Graefin

(05/06/2002; 16:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75026)

hmmmmm...gold shorts...

I wonder if they would go well with my turquoise socks!

Solomon Weaver

(05/06/2002; 16:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75027)

50 day moving average of Gold spot hit $300 today

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d12*

Siochain

(05/06/2002; 16:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75028)

Give up your gold (No Way!!)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/kaplan05_06_02.htmlInteresting....another wants you to turn your gold in....for your best interests, of course!!!!

"As the stock markets continues its ominous declines (The S&P's made 6 month lows last week), as the USD continues its precipitous decline (the Euro made a 7 month high on Friday), the gold market is seeing investor interest ramp up to levels not seen in 20 years. While the tragic events of September 11th, and other terrorist actions, have prompted the purchase of gold by those seeking a "safe haven" in a increasingly frightening world, those levels of demand are nowhere near the quantity nor the consistency of interest presently seen. The purchases of gold due to sudden fears by the market tend to be fleeting in nature, but such demand, when fueled by economic reversals is of much greater consequence.

There has also a "sea change" in the nature of such investment demand. Previously, buyers of gold participated in the "physical" markets, buying bars or coins. Now, recent buyers of gold are demanding "paper" gold through the derivatives, futures, or options markets. They want the leverage and the safety and security of dealing in a completely regulated environment. This trend can be summarily proven by looking at the volume of business recorded by the LBMA vs. that which occurs on the regulated futures markets in New York. Trading volumes in London, the largest "physical" gold market in the world, continue to post lower results, while open interest in New York continues to rise to recent record levels.

We are also seeing that the old-time investors in gold are actually selling into this rally, and not much physical buying is occurring. When investor interest in physical gold is high, premiums on gold coins rise. Even as gold continues to make 2-year highs, premiums on gold coins such as US Eagles remain quite low and well below replacement costs at the US Mint. Perhaps even a better example is the sad case of US $20 Liberty Head gold coins in XF/AU condition (slightly circulated). These numismatic coins, which were minted from the 1850's to 1907 (now almost at least 100 years old), are trading in the market for just $15 to $25 USD (each coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold) above their precious metal melt content, probably as low a premium as has been seen since the 1970's. This fact would certainly infer that "old-time" investors are selling as new investors are buying. But the new investors are seeking investment venues with greater transparency, greater leverage, and greater security, and are shunning the old investment vehicles such as coins.

I would expect that this trend will continue, to the financial detriment of those owners of physical gold coins and bars. I urge readers of this commentary, who hold physical coins, to call our offices (afternoons are best) for a discussion of possible strategies to avoid further losses. Historically, on many sharp gold rallies, such coins have traded at or below spot, and if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. "

Siochain...If holding real gold is such a "bad investment"...wonder why they want to take it off your hands...hmmmmn

Now our cry must be to not only get gold...but hold it...tightly!!!

Siochain

(05/06/2002; 17:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75029)

@ Robot Guy

I thought someone had mentioned that these late blips were related to trading still open in Mexico...not sure but a possibility

R Powell

(05/06/2002; 17:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75030)

Gold and silver trading

Thebulliondesk site has gold up 1.90 and silver up .03.
I've heard that gold starts trading again at 4:00 EST after the stocks close and a few hours after Comex close. Where this happens is a mystery unless it's electronic trading?? I believe downunder trading starts at 6:00 EST and Hong Kong starts at 9:00. Anyone know for sure?
Rich

Graefin

(05/06/2002; 17:21:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75031)

R Powell

DownUnder should start at 6pmEST, dunno about Hong Kong.
- Gr�fin

Siochain

(05/06/2002; 17:36:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75032)

GATA...LIPS...And GOLD

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=198811&cftoken=78787506πd=2193Part:
"Ferdi Lips Spotted The Gold Rig That Is Coming To An End Six Years Ago

With both London and Japan closed, the gold trading was very subdued in the U.S.

The Comex open interest continues to explode as it rose 4,958 contracts to 189,735 contracts on Friday. The bullion dealers, or uniformed gold commentators, will say that is bearish as the specs keep piling in. I say the opposite. We are coming closer and closer to that commercial signal failure. That is when the commercials are buried by the specs and it gives force to the grandest commodity moves of all. That was the case in 1993 when gold exploded higher and in late 1996/1997 when gold collapsed.

Another bullish gold technical indicator from a Caf� member:

Bill:
Again, two very reliable indicators, the put-call ratios in both the gold futures and the XAU continue to be unbelievably subdued. I think that on only one day last week did the XAU have more calls than puts. At trading tops you can look for ratios of around 10:1. The Hulbert article is also most revealing. Chuck C

From http://www.business.scotsman.com:

By Ian Williams

THE price of gold rose last week to $309 an ounce - and at one point was $312, its highest for two years, a period during which the FTSE gold mines index gained 55%.

This highlights the counter-cyclical nature of gold relative to bonds and equities. A multitude of factors - technical, fundamental and cyclical - are responsible. But one thing seems certain: the price can go considerably higher, outperforming even the previous peak of $850 an ounce in January 1980.

Analysis points to a multi-year bull market developing for both gold and gold stocks, supported by such diverse factors as a 900% increase in Japanese gold imports this year, China's desire to increase the percentage of its reserves held in gold and changes in forward selling by major gold-mining companies.

China's central bank is the most interesting example. China has foreign exchange reserves of $700bn, of which about 2% is in gold. Last year, the Chinese declared their intention to increase this to between 10% and 15% of total reserves but were "persuaded" by the Americans to keep their reserves in dollars and treasury bills in return for American support for China's application to join the World Trade Organisation. Now that China is a member, it can change its reserve mix to whatever it wants.

Siochain...that last paragraph is interesting,,,wouldn't you say....the rest of the article gives a good summary of what has been going on behind the scenes and GATA's learning & leading

Pizz

(05/06/2002; 17:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75033)

Markets

Anyone else getting the feeling that SOMETHING is just not quite right.

Technically gold is right up against a trendline. A couple gold stock I follow are right at new high's or slightly below, and the SM sold off last hour and aftermarket gold moving up befor Sidney. Feels like a breakup for gold and down for markets.

Now, FED meets tomorrow, after a week+ of crashing dollar and the quarterly refunding later this week.

I'm just trying to figure who's going to come to the auction at these prices with what appears to be a growing perception that capital may be starting to move away from US.

I can think of two reasons why Greenspan might be strongly considering raising rates tomorrow. (1)It'll drop treasuries and therefore give a bit of a boost to the treasury bill auction, and (2)has anyone figured out who the PTB is going to blame for the recovery that never was?? Raising interest rates would sufffice as the macro economic numbers continue to deteriorate. Some reason is going to have to be given sooner or later. Maybe Greenie will walk the plank for the admin on this one. Or maybe (if rates do go up) he'll just blame all the positive govmt stats.

Just musing, but again, something doesn't feel quite right.

Siochain: Thanks for the Kaplan laugh. Any of his customers stupid enough to by that line of BS should sell.
Physical may jst be getting a bit harder to find (smile).

Pizz

nickel62

(05/06/2002; 17:49:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75034)

Kaplan, I couldn't believe that post????????

Is that the same guy who gets qouted on Kitco all the time? A little help here I have heard the name but never knew who he was. Thanks before hand.

MarkeTalk

(05/06/2002; 18:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75035)

Cavan Man, IRS reporting rules on K-rands & Maple Leafs

I have read your post in response to my post, as you invited me to comment. I have to disagree with your analysis concerning the reason why the Treasury Department introduced dealer-reporting requirements in 1984. Firstly, the IRS missed out on billions of tax dollars after a spectacular run in gold and silver to heights never seen before. Investors cleaned up in the bullion market and many did not pay any taxes at all. Secondly, these new rules were drafted and timed to go into effect as the gold market was surging again towards $500 from its lows of $282 in August 1982. Spot gold hit $500 on a couple of occasions between 1983 and 1987, the last being in December 1987. Go back and check the charts. I know this information like the back of my hand because I was working for another precious metals company at the time. Every swing up and down would invite investors to sell back to dealers and the investors would pocket the profits. But with new dealer-reporting requirements in place, there was no way to escape the tax man.

Thirdly, the new US Eagle gold coin was not introduced until 1986, two years after the 1984 rules went into effect. It can be argued that one of the reasons for the new US Eagle was to tap into the growing interest in gold coins and to take profits away from Canada and South Africa. But why did the IRS fail to place the US Eagle on the list of reportable transactions by dealers? Could it be the same reason why the IRS failed to place the Austrian Philharmonic, Chinese Panda and Australian Nugget/Kangaroo on the same list? I believe so and that the reason was inertia on the part of the IRS. In other words, the IRS simply overlooked these others coins. But with the new proposed regulations due out in the next 60 to 90 days, I believe those "loopholes" will be a thing of the past.

As far as your comment goes regarding the sale of 20 Maple Leaf gold coins without any dealer reporting, that is true unless you sell back 20 coins every week or every month in an attempt to circumvent the intent of the law. The IRS advised all of the dealers many years ago and warned us against so-called "structured transactions" which evade the strict reading of the law but not its intent. In fact, I received a phone call recently from a client who had done business with a competitor who was the object of a government sting operation. Government agents set up cash purchases of less than $10,000 each time (in compliance with a strict reading of the law) but they visited the gold dealer several times over the course of six months. The coin dealer failed to fill out the required currency transaction reports (for cash deals over $10,000) and he was found to be in violation of the IRS regulation. The feds seized all of his inventory and bank account and he was out of business left to fend for himself on the street corner. This is one of the reasons why Centennial made the decision many years ago to avoid cash deals altogether.

GC

mikal

(05/06/2002; 18:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75036)

@Pizz

Those ARE two very good reasons why the FED may raise interest rates tomorrow or at ANY time they see the need. Imagine what would happen to the dollar. If higher rates undermine foreign and domestic confidence in low inflation or quick recovery. If corporate cash flow, earnings, & profits suffer from higher debt payments. If stock prices and credit ratings suffer. If consumer and corporate borrowing and spending suffers.

R Powell

(05/06/2002; 18:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75037)

Pizz

That "feeling that something is not quite right" must be contagious but with me it refers to silver. I sense weakness and hope silver's good friend gold can help by setting the pace. Gold seems to have great support. David Morgan recently said that silver's upside moves seem supported by silver as a monetary metal while the downside moves appear as silver trading as an industrial metal.
If POG can lend some support now, I believe silver will return the favor later.

Perhaps soon the Greenman will face that awful decision of having to raise rates to save the dollar knowing that this may tank the debt ridden economy. Or, will he leave the dollar to sink or swim without intervention (rate hikes) protecting the equities?
Does POG care either way? Probably not, it's either up or up at a faster pace. Close your eyes now and repeat three times, "Silver is money too! Silver is money too! Silver is money too!"
Rich

mikal

(05/06/2002; 18:40:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75038)

@Pizz

Re: Your reason #2 for hiking Fed Funds Rate. It seems we will get a repeat of 1929 and 1932 where blame was diverted, like the majority do today. They still haven't learned either. So, what reason will we get for the nasty downturn, besides 9-11? Greenspan? Bush? I hope Christian's terrorist suggestion was wrong. I wish it were a UFO announcement or a Second Coming, but I don't think so. Then what will it be? There is only one way to find out. ; ) CALL To Contest!

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 19:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75039)

Argentina inflation soars

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1970000/1970198.stm
Argentine prices have risen 20% so far this year following the devaluation of the country's currency the peso, officials have said.

Snippit:

The prices of fresh eggs and vegetable oils, as well as the prices of computers and televisions, have risen between 100% and 200%, according to a survey by the Argentine business chamber CAME. The sharpest price increases were seen in April, raising fears that there could be worse to come. "On Monday the official inflation rate [for April] will be announced, and it will be around 10% [for that month alone]," said cabinet chief Alfredo Atanasof in interviews on Sunday.

Black Blade: Argentina has seen several "food riots". This "Soylent Green" scenario will play out over and over. "Interesting Times"

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/06/2002; 19:10:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75040)

Mikal

www.talia.ch/works.htmlIf the FED raises interest rates it's a notice to the world that they don't care about the "recovery". They have to keep interest rates low and let the dollar come down slowly. To throw out whatever recovery is happening by raising rates would damage the "We're OK and you're going to be OK" image. Perception becomes reality when there are more variables than constants in the equation. They have to decide who they don't mind stealing from more........the foreignors holding bonds who can't vote or the general population that needs its jobs. Americans would rather have a weak dollar than no dollar at all. Bring on inflation, half the people you talk to all think a little inflation is good. It's the pain tolerance level of the foreign bond holders that the FED will test. When the Sheiks and the Kings of the East (Asia) start complaining then the FED will raise rates and not until.

The geldshares are getting tight. For every seller there are 1.3 buyers and the shorts are going to be panicing every morning. They are trying hard to knock them down but there are a million "snapper blues" nipping at the bait. No matter what we do, there is more bad news coming out keeping fear alive and well. What is blowing people's minds is the way the POG won't fall back. Their shorting efforts are like throwing water on a dry sponge. One of the "true barometer issues" CEF is running up and all it has is metal in its vault. So we see more lemmings would rather trust those accountants than own the metal themselves. Some day "point click buy is going to turn into, point click "How come I can't access my broker" Oh yes, it's because they make you broker. So I'm saying that symbol is a good overlay to the POG to test for bullish sentiment. The divergence would show that one is going to catch up to the other. The point at which money runs hard into the metal vs the shares is still in flux. No one has to buy the shares it's just too easy. I'm sure glad the mining executives are so much more noble and honest than the folks at Enron. It's amazing how all the saints decided the run goldmining companies. Yeah I'm OK and you're OK. (So far today. If you aren't on the lookout for large block order sales and sly dilution attempts, then yer a sleepin too much and awake not enough.

I took the "Land-O-Lakes" butter label to my scanner and for my wallpaper I've got the little indian maiden holding out her bar of gold. A tribute to all the Tokyo-mamas buying gold up making it all happen.
----------------------------------------------------------
When you need peace and quiet just watch the bird. Found it on a recient web expedition.

sector

(05/06/2002; 19:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75041)

FOMC Rate Increase?

@piz...It's not in the cards kind Sir.Why?

For each 1% increase in Fed Funds there is a 35% increase in US corporate interest costs.

To suffer an interest rate hike just now would surely smash the SM. Corporate leaders are desperate for any bottom line juice, never mind the widespread accusations of fraudulent accounting with which they now must constantly deal.

No, Mr. "Can't Make a Decision" Greenspan will default to his dominant personality trait...ignoring the approaching freight train.

The gold fraud cabal faces, as GATA's Bill Murphy says, a new adversary. A foe of unknown strength and unmeasured tenacity�an enemy that has special intelligence regarding the plans and backing of the Fed and Treasury�An enemy that has organized and is lean for a protracted fight. This isn't some rogue hedge fund or eccentric billionaire or some trendy boutique group. These people are hardened, fearless shock troups that know the Fed's gold defenses are as vulnerable as the Maginot Line. They are determined.

Even if the Fed raises interest rates soon, and the dollar stops swooning, it won't matter to this new Fed enemy because they understand the physical mechanics of the years-long gold suppression and have moved to exploit the Fed weakness. The dollar isn't the gold-link it used to be. "It's the physical...stupid" is their silent war cry. The Fed has sold all it can sell comfortably. The Fed acolytes are on the financial ropes with their gold derivatives [JPM, CitiBank have dumped tens of billions in gold derivatives of late and they still have many tens of billions to go].

The mighty Fed...in a fight for its life.

Make no mistake. If they fail to cap gold in the coming months they fail as an institution. For as surely as the Enron, JPM and Mahonia offshore scandals followed the Moody's downgrade of Enron, there will be a gold scandal. It will be necessary to explain $400 [Much higher likely] plus gold prices. The stories will emanate from the NON-financial press. A flood of questions will follow.

The perpetrator will be revealed to be the Federal Reserve. They sold our gold to create bubbles. They roped into the scam the British in too. The Germans will roll as Deutsche Bank coughs up its golden hairball as well.

At the end, the Fed will be "�lying in a burned-out-basement�" as Neill Young so aptly said in� "After the Gold Rush.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/06/2002; 19:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75042)

(No Subject)

http://www.talia.ch/works.htmlHere it is.

mikal

(05/06/2002; 19:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75043)

@Siochain

WELCOME Back Lady.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 19:56:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75044)

After Hours

There is a bit of interesting action perking up in after hours trading. Notice that Gold is up about $2.00/oz. and the USD Index is in retreat again (soon below 112?). After such a dismal day in NY, it is no wonder that foriegn investors are ready to bail.

- Black Blade

mikal

(05/06/2002; 20:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75045)

@GR2- Nice dove art

"A dove got caught in the rafters last night. I had quite a time trying to get her out. She hit her head several times in panic. Only when she was stunned was I able to care for her.... in this world, the pursuit of love and compassion is not without pain and confusion." -Deng Ming-Dao, 365 TAO

Cavan Man

(05/06/2002; 20:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75046)

sector

Who is this new adversary? Sorry to say I am not a cafe member.

slingshot

(05/06/2002; 20:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75047)

Gold $313.30

******************************Car 54 Where are you?

Wake up Joe, (Joe Sixpack) Their calling us.

Slingshot----------------------<>

da2g

(05/06/2002; 20:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75048)

Cavan Man- Belated Easter Greetings

Christos Voskres!

Sorry I missed your greeting yesterday.

Pizz

(05/06/2002; 20:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75049)

@sector - more musings on a rate hike

Appreciate your response and I agree with your statements.

My concern is more abstract (for lack of a better term due to my limited diction) and more directed towards the $ and our debt - a much bigger problem than gold derivitives, which are, IMHO, still a major problem.

The dollar drop has the potential to take Japan down for the count, banks first. Japan hasn't much incentive to keep holding our debt, dollar or bonds. Major problem. If our bonds drop, the housing market starts to implode with higher long term rates. If the dollar continues to drop, inflation goes up with the same effect.

A quarter point rise firms up the dollar and debt. It also will nearly completely remove the limited inflation fears and have very little efect on long term rates. It would also, IMO, send gold back down to the bottom end of the trading range (295 - 300).

Slam corporate American and the Stock Market. You bet, but their going down anyway. Why not get some mileage out of it? Most analyst I'm listening to are looking for the washout of the markets before they start committing new funds.

Corporate earnings are already going down, and O'Neil's already basically said "tough".

Greenspan is also into tweeking. We're too close to November elections to have any type of dollar crisis get worse. Democrats will want tax relief repealed or raise taxes, Bush & O'Neil won't go that route.

Proverbial "Catch 22".

Odds say your right on the "do nothing" senario, but I also hedge against the "blindsides". Greenie cost me a bunch once in my trading days and if anything, he has his own agenda and he happens to be O'Neils spear-chucker.

Interesting times and thanks again for the feedback.

Pizz

Cavan Man

(05/06/2002; 20:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75050)

da2g

Alithos aneste!

Pizz

(05/06/2002; 20:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75051)

Black Blade

Would it be too much to ask if you have any experience or recomendations on some of the solar battery chargers, radios, flashlights, and lanterns available?

Not too many manufactures that I can find on the net, and the prices just don't seem to be high enough for me to be comfortable that I'm not buying junk - stange way to look at it (and if I ever do get ripped ordering on the net, it will probably be a doozy), but competition in that market seem a bit slim.

(Thanks also for all the energy posts. I don't have the time to be as informed as you make me, and it is appreciated.)

Pizz

YGM

(05/06/2002; 20:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75052)

New Use For GOLD & SILVER......

http://www.standardbank.com/PreciousMetals/home.asp?lid=1&sgid=3Japans Sumitomo Metal Mining Develops Special Conductive Film..May 2/02.........

Scroll @ Link......Conductive film for Cathode Raytube CRT Monitors using Silver & Gold......

**Excuse me if someone already posted this. I just found it surfing around Bank news sites.....YGM.

BTW...Anglo-American getting into Copper??? Didn't read this piece yet...

Pizz

(05/06/2002; 20:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75053)

R Powell - Silver Sinking?

Hang in there buddy. You've got the leveraged play of the decade, assuming we're right on gold. It will just take a bit longer.

Every time you get nervous about silver, just imagine gold at a paultry 1500 to 3000 bucks an ounce and the banks in deep ______. Is gold going to be money? No - wealth. It will be too expensive to buy or trade by the masses.

If (When?) TSHTF, and I think it's going to, silver will be the alternative medium of the masses, in the hundreds of dollars an ounce with a lot of junk silver and old coins for trading and small purchases if it comes to that.

Personally, if it gets real bad (let's hope not), I'll take a hack saw to a 10 oz bar of silver for a small purchase. Chop up a maple - I don't think so, cause my gold will be buried so deep . . . waiting for the dust to settle.

General Public is virtually ignorant of what is going on and transpiring. It'l take another crisis or two and some time, but its coming.

Pizz

YGM

(05/06/2002; 20:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75054)

V.A.T. Being lifted from Gold in Korea? Possibly June.

http://www.platts.com/stories/pr1.htmlOne more Asian country will be buying more Gold...OK!

Pizz

(05/06/2002; 20:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75055)

@Mikal

I really don't have an answer (rate hike may work) to my own statement on just what the PTB are going to say when all their bullish BS comes home to roost, but I do feel someone or something will have to be "tossed under the bus". (That's car biz lingo for blaming everyone but yourself.)

I'm expecting the government to start hedging their 'bets' a bit. Going to be one heck of an off major election this year, mud throwing by the supertanker load.

Thanks for the feedback.

Pizz

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 20:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75056)

Pizz � Solar Power Packs

I am afraid that I do not have much experience here. However, I have a friend who has a solar powered and "crank up" radio (Kaito Solar AM/FM/Shortwave Radio) that seems to work well without batteries (it will also operate on batteries). The crank charges the radio for a time as the slow unwinding action generates electricity. I understand that each full cycle lasts at least an hour. There are also lamps that operate the same way such as the Solar Dynamo Rechargeable Lantern (solar powered lantern does sound a bit redundant doesn't it?). There are even solar-powered battery chargers available. There are several brands of these kinds of items available. You could do an internet search under "emergency radio" or "earthquake preparation" or something similar � you should be able to find something similar.

I just have the usual Coleman lantern, oil lamp, candles, flint and steel and battery operated gadgets, however, these other "emergency" items should work out well and that they can work without batteries is a plus. Fortunately I have a hideaway in the mountains where I could live a more "primitive" life if necessary. However, I am used to that kind of life due to work and up-bringing whereas someone with a family to look after would perhaps like something much more convenient. I don't think that you could go wrong by preparing for any emergency and these items are a good start.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(05/06/2002; 20:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75057)

The Hobbits are CELEBRATING breaking through $313.

NEXT hesitation stop is $325.
<;-)

sector

(05/06/2002; 21:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75058)

@CavenMan...The Fed's New Gold Buying Adversary

We don't have names but we know addresses.

We don't know them all but we know enough.

One gains perepective on who is buying now by observing who bought in Feb. but is quiet now.

It isn't the arabs but they count.

In the end... they will win...big. It's the patience thing.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/06/2002; 21:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75059)

Are the Kangeroos Hopping in Sydney?

Somebody actually started buying gold down under. Kicking kiwi koalas batman. No more selling on the Isles of Perth. Yes, mates we'd might better cover our hedgebooks before we get covered up 6 foot under down under right.

Canuck

(05/06/2002; 21:27:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75060)

@ Pizz, All

For some reason I've been tuning in on 'the inside information' scoop for the last year or so.

I didn't see the SM sell off but if my (inside) guess is correct I wouldn't be surprised with an increase tomorrow.
Was the sell-off abrupt/intense this afternoon?

On the other hand, gold powering ahead flys in the face of this guesstimation.

We shall see soon enough.

Black Blade

(05/06/2002; 22:08:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75061)

Hole in Ohio reactor vessel, cracks in South Carolina plant raise biggest nuclear safety questions since TMI

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/126/region/Hole_in_Ohio_reactor_vessel_cr:.shtml
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) A nuclear reactor in Ohio is found to have a large hole nobody thought possible, burned almost through its six-inch protective steel cover. Cracks of a type never seen before are discovered at a reactor in South Carolina, triggering widespread inspections. Both events caught industry leaders and government regulators by surprise, and they are fueling new questions about aging nuclear power plants and plant inspection programs.

Black Blade: More problems found in the nation's nukes. When boric acid corrosion was found at the Davis Besse reactor in Ohio, the NRC demanded that all 68 other nukes of similar design be inspected. Now another near miss has been found. More inspections are likely and the resulting shutdowns will likely result in increased draw-down of the NG supply.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/06/2002; 22:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75062)

POG + 30 is what we might see.

From the increasing magnitude of each 4 month POG price breakout, we are scheduled for a $30 spike with a fallback of only $5. Whatever price it bases at for now is what I'm adding that $30 to. Charts are the sum collective of all the traders in the world. Their footprints are in the cadence of history across the gold dust sprinkled trail.

"Paper-man where art thou? Who told you that paper was money? Did you go to the banker and eat from the tree it was known that you shouldn't eat from? The tree of usury and unjust gain?"

Chris Powell

(05/06/2002; 22:17:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75063)

More indications that Barrick is frantic to cover

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1097More indications that Barrick is frantic to cover
its shorts through combination with AngloGold
and Gold Fields:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1097

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Waverider

(05/07/2002; 00:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75064)

Tapping gold's latent market

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BB100522239Snippit:
"� Gold Fields' chairman Chris Thompson believes the drive to market and sell gold jewellery is not enough to mop up a physical gold overhang, given the metal's latent potential in the investment sector. Marketing gold jewellery subjects bullion to changes in fashion and economic cycles.

"The big opportunity is actually to develop the investment side of the business because I do believe, I personally believe, that there is a large latent investment demand out there which we need to foster; we need to make it much easier to own gold, we have to get rid of all the legacy of denial that was in the past when you couldn't own it. It is now possible and we need to make the whole system easy to handle, so that that potential demand can be triggered. It will absorb much of the potential bank gold that the banks may ultimately want to sell. That's the big challenge ahead of us," Thompson said.

"...Most portfolios, equity managers' portfolios, are, by mandate, not allowed to own gold. Most of the mandates around the world dictate you can own equities, bonds, tradable instruments, etc, but physical bullion you can't own � so that a huge part of the investment universe is actually denied the opportunity to do so. We need to make it possible for them to own gold. So there's a lot of thinking going on in the business about how we can free up that potential market," he said.

Waverider: An excellent initiative! Maybe this is why most people shy away from Gold investment and portfolio insurance - it's considered too out of the mainstream and inaccessible, and hence it's automatically assumed to be speculative and risky. I sense a change in the wind....

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 01:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75065)

U.S. IS HEADED FOR AN ENERGY SUPPLY TRAIN WRECK, OIL AND GAS EXECUTIVES WARN

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200205071675.3.1_fee6000aa78ee83a
Snippit:

The United States is headed for an energy supply train wreck, oil and gas executives warned at two major energy conferences this spring."The International Energy Agency projects oil consumption will rise 60 percent in 20 years.

So we, in essence, need to add 2 million incremental barrels per day, every year, to meet that - or the equivalent of five Saudi Arabias in those two decades," he explained. "But non-OPEC increases will be limited. Mergers have reduced organic growth possibilities and most companies are much more disciplined in what they drill."

Seitz suggested that the real debate in the United States should be about natural gas policy issues, not about drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. "We all have heard about many power plant projects being canceled or delayed. But due to all the construction of the last two years, this summer we will have an additional 45 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity on line, and that translates to at least one-half to four billion cubic feet per day of new gas demand," he said. "Every 1 Bcf [billion cubic feet] burned by the new plants is a Bcf not available for fall storage," Seitz observed.

"What has happened to our industry? Where have all the prospects gone?" asked Lightner. "Over the last 10 years, most of the gas supply and drilling activity has been from exploitation, not exploration. The problem is, this is a finite game."

Black Blade: The US is heading into an oncoming train. We are headed for another energy crisis. We did not learn from the past so we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes all over again. The end result is an economic calamity. As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance on hand, get enough cash stashed for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program.

sstins

(05/07/2002; 01:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75066)

314.40

This market is still imho very controlled but fortunately it appears someone new is behind the wheel.

Talked with a local box maker and he mentioned that they've been getting Fridays off the last couple of weeks.

hmmmm...

get out of debt "I wish"
start a food program "might actually do that"
add PM's to your portfolio "check and double check"
begin a box storage program "uh..okay"

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 01:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75067)

Whoa! Look at Spot and the Falling USD!

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Spot bounded over $314.00/oz. and the USD could flounder under 113 tonight. All major currencies are punishing the US Dollar. I see the Euro is popping up over 92 cents to the US Dollar. Oil is recovering slightly tonight as well. There is a lot of fear that the US markets will crash further on concerns over no real corporate earnings. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Spartacus

(05/07/2002; 01:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75068)

George will follow public opinion on euro

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT30A8ZSW0D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC⊂heading=currencies%20&%20money
Sir Edward George, governor of the Bank of England, has said he will not oppose euro entry if the government and the public decide to support it.

In an interview with the Financial Times coinciding with the fifth anniversary of central bank independence, Sir Edward said: "[The Bank] is an institution which has a great tradition of public service, and it would see its responsibility as making a success of whatever was decided."

His remarks will disappoint eurosceptics, who see Sir Edward as a sympathiser.

Although he has tried in his public statements to set out both the benefits and risks of euro entry, his warnings of the dangers have seemed more heartfelt.

He has, for example, stressed the potential costs of a "one size fits all" interest rate for Europe. And he identified the high level of the pound against the euro as "an immediate obstacle" to entry.

He also described the shift to a system in which the Bank's governor would help to set interest rates as a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank as "a little bit like going back to the old arrangements where the governor advised the chancellor and the decision was taken by the chancellor".

But he indicated that in spite of these doubts, he and the Bank would not stand in the way of a decision to join the euro.

By the time a decision is taken next year, a successor will probably have been chosen to Sir Edward, who steps down at the end of June 2003.

But Sir Edward said: "Whoever succeeds me I think would become absolutely committed to making it work."

Spartacus: A trensdhift in the make?

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 01:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75069)

EIA boosts 2002 demand estimates for US natgas

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020506/energy_eia_demand_1.htmlSnippit:

WASHINGTON, May 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. government increased its estimates for growth in natural gas demand this year, citing industrial growth and a gradually reviving economy. The Energy Information Administration said summer natural gas demand would be 4.4 percent higher than the year-ago period. Previously, the EIA had estimated an increase of 4.1 percent.

Black Blade: Gee what a surprise. The EIA report fails to mention that exploration and production has fallen off so that reserves and storage are not being replenished at rates sufficient to avoid an energy crunch.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 01:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75070)

What A Reversal!

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD suddenly gained strength and all currencies dived against the US Dollar. Gold appears to have dropped slightly as well. Something very odd is happening tonight.

- Black Blade

And�ril

(05/07/2002; 01:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75071)

msg#: 75028 Siochain, it is a funeral

You need wonder no longer "why they want to take it (gold) off your hands".

Consider only this from your repost: there in the voice of Mr. Kaplan you may listen as though you hear the words of a dying man. Some now pinched much tighter, losing grips on the juggler's game faster than others; in this you may do no better than looking straight into the eye and mind a representative of gold leasing. Taking solid gold deposits under promise of interest returns or cheap storage; borrowing short term while lending long. The classic poor banker's panic when loans default and depositors run. Step lively to the front to reclaim your unallocated accounts, there is no FDIC safety net where wisdom has failed with these leasing operations.

Read these silly words again!

"if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. "

LAUGHTER!! Then beat them with hammers into buttons and watch their value return to the heavens! Grind them with pebbles back into ore and return to the ground; then selling maps to the location and turns at the shovel, Tom Sawyer this is better than painting fences, this is better than gold!!

No 'forty-niner been kicked by a mule ever saw such an 'ass as this! "Many analysts and I" it calls itself??! Is it beyond wondering of some dominoes that they fall FIRST? YES! It is a wonder that they ever stood at all!!

This cry of nonsense is to be heard as wails of desperation. You hear also the bagpipes maybe. The crows will come, but they will find no meal there. The bones are already picked clean. How much fast and loose gold account will "YOU" suffer to be lost as the paper dominoes fall? You will be given no other warning with more meaning than this from a spokesman, eye to eye. Your fate, it is yours to choose from voices on the wind and in your mind the shape of things to come.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 02:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75072)

Moody's warns on bankers� probe

http://www.msnbc.com/news/748523.asp?0si=-&cp1=1
Any indictments could result in ratings cuts, Moody's says

Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 6 � Moody's Investors Service on Monday said that investigations of investment banks that lead to criminal indictments could result in rating cuts.

Black Blade: Couldn't happen to a bunch of nicer people.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 03:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75073)

David Tice Interview (thestreet.com)

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/mutualfundmondaybg/10020816.html
Snippit:

Q: You've often said that the dollar is overvalued. Do you still think that's the case? What part do credit issues play?

A: Yes. We have a dysfunctional global currency and economic system, in which the whole world is set up to sell to the American consumer. Essentially, the rest of the world is working for the U.S. consumer, who is spending far more than they earn, sending paper to the rest of the world for their goods. That's been able to occur because the dollar has been so strong. In other words, the rest of the world wants to buy our paper.

But the dollar is weakening, and the price of gold is increasing. Gold is the antithesis of the dollar; it's the asset for uncertain times. When gold prices go up, it indicates a problem -- some discomfort or uncertainty -- in the system. The price of gold is close to $310; it had been below $300 for a long, long time.

� Bad Trends in the Industry: Not only is performance off -- you may not even be able to find out who's in charge of your fund.
� When Too Much Cash Is Bad: It can drag down returns within a fund and within your overall portfolio.
� Reverse Engineer Your Mutual Fund: Here's how to analyze a portfolio to uncover a manager's strategy.

Q:. What will trigger the dramatic downturn you're expecting?

A: It could be a number of things: the dollar continuing to decline, interest rates go back up, gold prices going higher, a resistance to buying asset-backed securities, continued lowered corporate earnings and uncertainty in corporate bonds. All these factors in the background could cause some incremental selling in the margin, prompting a slide past September's lows. If interest rates start rising at the same time the stock market goes lower than it did in September, corporate earnings won't come back and we could see another round of layoffs -- and the U.S. consumer will start to panic.

The U.S. consumer has been sold a bill of goods that the Fed will create permanent prosperity for us. But in a postbubble economy, there's not a lot that can be done except take the pain and correct the imbalances. That means lower and lower profits and lower and lower stock prices and a more disconsolate consumer. And it gets ugly. We're moving from the virtuous circle of the past five years to a vicious cycle. I wish Alan Greenspan could snap his fingers and make it go away, but he can't.

Black Blade: So far that is how it has been playing out. There's a lot of pain to come yet. I was talking to a friend today and he said that "The (stock) market will get better and that the analysts keep projecting that the market will recover". I said, "yeah, but that's their job". It was like a light turned on. Should've seen his face when that sank in. I don't think that many people have awakened yet. When they wake up and run for the exits � look out.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 03:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75074)

P/E Ratios--Why The Confusion?

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=716&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

One of the problems with the deterioration of accounting standards is that no one seems to know the true state of earnings, and we therefore hear a wide range of price-earnings ratios being mentioned on the Street and in the media. Most investors are puzzled when they hear one "expert" state the price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 53 only to hear another "expert" say its only 19 a short time later.

Black Blade: Actually it gets worse, the S&P 500 is calculated on "operating earnings". That is these earnings are absolutely bogus. That is why you see an average p/e for the index at about 20. When actual "real" true to life � bottom line � "net earnings" are calculated, the p/e is closer to 60. Be careful out there � the charlatans of Wall Street do not want you to know the true state of the markets � it's bad for business.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 03:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75075)

Euro Markets Awash In Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
European markets are awash in red. Perhaps it is a case of "monkey see - monkey do" in response to yesterdays negative results in NY trading. The futures in NY are not very impressive this morning. We could see a lot of volatility at the open. Amazingly, the USD has made a huge swing from negative to positive this morning while foriegn currencies are turning negative. This is a real battle as the nations with the weakest currencies win the trade wars while the loser ultimately has the reward of a trade deficit.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 03:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75076)

IBM In Trouble?

Word is coming over the wire that IBM will be announcing some "aggressive cost cutting". It appears that massive layoffs are in the works and possibly some plant closures. Yep - looks like a recovery to me.

- Black Blade

Topaz

(05/07/2002; 04:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75077)

Sydney "up"

Lo and behold, for only the second time in recent history, OZ market was UP.....now theres a curiosity.

I'm also a little conserned for GWB - recall the press conference after the Crown Prince meeting, GW surely looked "in shock".... since then the Leader of the Free World has severely restricted his public appearances (at least internationally) - coincidentally, the POG runup and US$ swoon began shortly thereafter.
All his merry men are making the running it seems.
Any thoughts?

Arcticfox

(05/07/2002; 04:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75078)

More reason to own physical....

By James E. Sinclair, Chairman & CEO
Tan Range Exploration TNX
jes108@aol.com

As we follow the yellow brick road of gold derivatives we seem to entering the financial land Oz. We need to examine comparisons between what occurred in the Derivative market for electricity and what might occur in the Derivative market for gold.

A Derivative is defined as a trading item derived from an underling asset. The first gold derivatives are futures. That means the first financial entity derived from gold. There is inherent financial strength in the first derivative, the listed futures markets, because they are reasonably guaranteed by the existence of a clearing house function, known statistics of price and volume plus regulations. As we move into second and third derivatives the air of the exotic mathematician enters the equation. So does the feeling that we are in financial land of Oz.

We have already described these advanced derivatives as financial creations to you characterized by their nature of;

Unregulated,
Non Transparent,
Without a clearinghouse,
Dependent entirely on the balance sheet of the grantor as to performance
Without rights of offset,
only to mention a few of their less than desirable characteristics.

The primary similarity between the derivative market for electricity and the derivative market for gold is the fact that the underling volume of trade in the basic asset electricity and basic asset gold is the smallest of all popular trading items upon which has been constructed a large modern derivative market.

You can simplify your understanding of the strength of a derivative vehicle by accepting the axiom that the more volume that is traded in the underling asset the stronger will the derivative in that item be. Therefore the least likely derivatives to fail would be those on interest sensitive items, currencies and equities. The most likely to fail are those on electricity or gold.

Now we come to two interesting facts concerning Enron. You can track the beginning of Enron's end to the end of the Bull Market in electricity. The second and most important fact is that it has been reported that Enron hedged with itself. However no one so far has outlined why Enron hedged with itself. Finally we know that Enron set up a maze of partnerships that appeared independent but were not.

We are working our way toward the relationship between Enron on one hand and the Gold Derivative/Gold Banks on the other hand. It should be kept in mind that the derivative market for gold is a phenomenon of the 90s. That in the 80s this market was practically non-existent.

Now let us paint a scenario that only an arbitrageur could. If someone less then ethical or legal wanted to start a market in electricity in a derivative form they would need to establish what we shall call foundational transactions.

In order to do this they would;

1/ Organize a group of partnerships which would be given different names, different partners, different capitalization and addresses. These partnerships would appear independent but would in fact be controlled.

2/ Then organize a number of people to act as members of the independent partnerships parceling them out one at a time to appear to manage each of the independent appearing partnerships.

3/ Then one master trader with a singular derivative program would create many trades of different kinds and varieties of derivatives handing them out to say 12 partnerships.

4/ Each partnership would be given transactions that represented different views. Some would be bull, some neutral and other would be bears.

5/ If you examined any one of these partnerships you would see real risk giving the appearance of a real market. However if you looked at all the partnerships on one singular spread sheet the entire group of partnerships are totally even without any risk.

Could the gold derivative market's foundational transactions have been created by the same procedure? We shall see.

After you have done the above, any partnership can trade with a non conspiratorial dealer. All that needs to be done at night is that the conspiratorial group's master trader writes trades and distributes to the entire inside group transactions that return the conspiratorial group to even. The commissions that the group receives are enormous and hidden in the spread. That means the prices paid for derivative instruments includes points for the partnership. All this will stand up until one thing happens. A significant change in trend results in a need to close and reverse position which is by definition impossible.

Therefore, if Enron did this, they would have been making a fortune in trading derivatives in electricity until the bull market in electricity failed, thereby giving birth and acceleration to the bear market. Enron started its collapse when the electricity market changed trend and reversed direction. This could be the real Enron story. In such a situation the foundational derivative position would then failed to function financially because it was a paper construct. Thus the entire market melts down. Bankruptcy occurs but those in conspiracy have made huge commissions and taken profits out the back door of the failed entity in salaries, expenses and bonuses.

The entire mess is so huge, complex and confusing that the conspiracy is never defined. The conspirators laugh all the way to the bank. No one will know what really happened unless all of partnership and their transaction are audited as one spread sheet.

Is it possible that the end of the bear market in gold, which we have certainly feel has occurred, is the beginning of the demise of the financial integrity of the gold derivative and therefore many of the gold banks. We shall see but there is a great deal of reason to suspect the financial integrity of the instruments.

Thanks to Reginald Howe all the information you require to keep yourself abreast of the size of the total commercial bank position in the gold derivative market is available on his web page www.goldensextantcom. Mr. Howe has even provided the hyperlink required for direct access to the facts and figures.

Dr. Schultz (www.hsletter.com) has outlined for you the exact position of all the producing gold companies short spread position. This will be continually monitored for you in the Harry Schultz Letter.

All these figures are as of the latest reporting period with new figures due shortly.

Total Gold Producers Short Gold Spreads as reported in HSL are 97,446,190 ounces which is today worth USD$30,344,743,566.00. This represents two years full production of all producing gold mines. However this figures represents only 13% of the value of the total Gold Derivative market according to the Bank for International Settlements Yes, the total size of the G 10 commercial banks derivative positions is valued by the BIS at a lower gold price than today at $218,000,000,000.00. Harry Schultz & I will pains takingly examine the figures in order to offset longs against shorts to render a better figure for you.

The commercial bank net short spread position will, in our opinion, represent a net position of 100,000,000 to 200,000,000 ounces in short gold spreads. Regardless, it should bring the total short spread position to net short of an at least a total of 3 to 4 years production. We hope that will be the final number but stay tuned as we diligently work to provide you with the real gold picture.

The notional value is the value that a derivative such as a call is determined if you multiplied the price at which call is written times the ounces for which the call was written. For instance if you had a call on 100 ounces of gold at $325, the notional value is $32,500 but the call may have cost you only $2000. Our calculations indicate to us that at $354 every derivative on gold will reach its notional value. Therefore you can say that notional value will become real value because the call is exercisable by the bull interest in this case. For those that argue this $354 price, please remember that if gold for delivery one year out rises the price of gold every year out also rises but to a larger degree.

Therefore we conclude that;

1/Notional value becomes real value at the average price of gold over the past five years plus the average catango (a condition that exists when cash gold sells at a lower price than forward gold is called a catango) when it becomes the market price. In the most practical sense, knowing the inside of this market, the price of gold at which notional value of all present gold derivative becomes real value at $354 gold.

2/All derivative dealers maintain software programs for risk control. When I ran an arb, I & my partners determined what risk percentage of nominal value we would permit as we pursued our arb business on any given item such as gold, silver etc. I was never interested as the proprietor in each trader's position. What I watched was the entire house position. Risk control programs vary from gold bank to gold bank but the computer mathematical logic is the same. All gold hedges are short gold spreads (a spread is a long position against a short position). For the gold producers it takes many different forms but is basically the same logic. A producer could simply sell deffered delivery gold against gold in the ground as an example.

By our calculation as gold closed over $305 the risk control programs began to call for increased longs to offset the short in the short gold spread. This explains the strong action in gold over the last two weeks. It also explains the absence of the gold cartel right now. If they were in to sell now they would be buying from themselves on their risk control programs. This maintains the risk exposure fixed at a predetermined level for the arbitrage dealer gold bank. At $354 gold, the risk control programs will call for one ounce long for every ounce of gold short. The gold producer hedges at 97,466,190 ounces industry wide.

These producer positions have been laid off (a term meaning trade to) to the subsidiaries commercial/investment banks called gold banks that in turn lay off the long side by selling into the various paper gold items from Comex and London deferred to derivative of third and fourth forms. The skinny is someone will be buying 97,466,190 ounces or going quite broke at gold $354.

As a professional trader in the gold market for a total of 43 years experience, allow me to assure you the gold market is in the hands of the bull today. It appears to me as if Hung Fat and Dr. No have the producers and what I call "Wise Guys" by the neck. Anyone who thinks there is a public in this market knows nothing about gold. Gold never leads the commodity market, it follows it.

I would like to call your attention to what I see as the real risk to the gold producers:

The present vehicles used by the gold producers has produced a total short spread position of 97,466,190 ounces worth today USD$30,344,743,566.00 are:

1/ Unregulated.
2/ Non transparent.
3/ Traded in private treaty.
4/ Without reporting of trading statistics.
5/ Without the ability for the gold producer to lift legs of the spreads independently
6/ With a requirement that changes or closures must be made only at the gold bank that granted the short gold spread.
7/ Without a right of offset between the gold producer and the gold bank.
8/Priced by computer modeling, not market forces of supply and demand.
9/Without a clearing house facility to give a reasonable guarantee to financial performance.
10/Granted generally by subsidiaries of the well known investment or commercial bank.
11/ These subsidiaries generally do not publish balance sheets. It appears that for SEC purposes all which is required for a subsidiary is reporting if or not they comply with capital requirements in area of their domiciled if there is any.
12/Those that do publish financial figures usually do not give figures for total derivatives to which they are obligated to.
13/These subsidiaries have no automatic guarantee for their trade debts in case of bankruptcy
14/These subsidiaries are generally not domiciled in the USA.

To the short spread positions of the gold producers of 97,466,190 ounces, you must add at least a short gold spread position of that same amount or larger for what I call the "Wise Guys." The "Wise Guys" are traders in the market without a commodity hedging reason to be there.

They are the gold lease boys that use the funds for other than mining purposes and the carry trade gang who seek to profit as gold bears while capturing the difference between cash gold and forward gold in unlisted markets.

In my opinion, at $354 gold the foundational transactions of the gold derivative market could be tested. The melt down could then in full swing. We shall see as the gold market is no longer in the hands of the bears. The bears have lost their death grip on gold, if or not they know it. Be prepared for the arrival of central bank selling. The Cartel is neutralized by the risk control programs as buyers. I suspect that the next arrival of large cartel selling in gold will be hours before some central bank announces a large sale of gold. Expect the market to pull back but not as much as expected. Then Hung Fat and Dr. No will oversubscribe the auction and away we go on the upside for the price of gold. This will mirror the events of 1978, 1979 & 1980.

Both the junior exploration and development company plus all producers from modest to major who have hedge position will be placed in dire to uncomfortable conditions. Junior exploration and development companies with percentage deals with the majors are in as much and more danger than a major gold producer with a war chest of money.

Every junior exploration and development company subordinates their percentage of the property to the means of creating the loan which included full recourse to the derivative position taken by the major to produce the non recourse development loan. I believe when the cash call comes because of the derivative melt down the juniors will have to hand over their percentage property position to the major. This is why Harry advised and I have taken TNX towards the royalty route which has no exposure to the derivative of the major.

The non gold related people in gold derivatives, "Wise Guys", will be pulled down in whatever entities they are dealing if the melt down occurs. Balanced positions or even bull positions are no protection for the gold producer dealing in the gold derivative market today. If a melt down occurs gold producers who have no rights of offset in their contracts with the gold bank will be in serious difficulties regardless of their position. They will in the ensuing bankruptcy lose their credits and have to pay up on debits.

The gold producers should certainly ask themselves why they remain in gold derivative positions even if those positions are balanced when major traditional dealers exit the marketplace. If Credit Suisse First Boston and Rothschild's as example are expunging derivative contracts from their book, why does a gold producer take comfort holding such items? We are in a gold bull market and the gold equity or convertible bond financing window is open. The gold producers should either replace the non recourse gold loan with traditional financing or take recourse to the company on all development loans in order to expunge all derivative contracts now.

Topaz

(05/07/2002; 05:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75079)

Out of the Frying Pan....

http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1020709966.htmleom.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 05:12:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75080)

Dollar Wins Some Reprieve Before FOMC

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020507/markets_forex_3.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar regained its balance after hitting two-month lows against the yen and seven-month troughs versus the euro on Tuesday, as investors bought it back on their return from a long weekend in London. But sentiment for the dollar, which has lost four percent on traded weighted terms in recent weeks, remained fragile as weak U.S. stocks on Monday and recent poor data undermined faith in the prospects for a solid and sustained U.S. recovery.

"Given the market's extreme positioning, the dollar cannot continue to fall in the near term," said Steven Saywell, senior currency strategist at Citibank. "But the big picture remains unchanged. The dollar is vulnerable as the U.S. will it find increasingly difficult to fund its current account deficit and the market is questioning U.S. asset prices."

Worries about the shape of the U.S. recovery have reinforced investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at its policy-setting committee meeting later on Tuesday. The greenback also drew some support from intervention warnings against export-damaging yen strength from Japan's Ministry of Finance officials.

Black Blade: This is quite funny actually. Everyone is fighting to keep a weaker currency. Governments everywhere are intervening in the markets. Meanwhile the US account deficit and trade deficit continues to grow. This could develop into a war over who can have the weakest currency.

Cavan Man

(05/07/2002; 05:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75081)

@Arctic Fox....RE: Jim Sinclair's essay and analysis

Remember FOA?Thanks for posting that article. Just a point of reference for any who care to read; Mr. Sinclair's $354, where, "the derivative foundation could be tested", is $6 from the $360 where both FOA and his "friend" have said the paper market would blow up. Those gentlemen were/are genuine. We are headed there.

Mr Gresham

(05/07/2002; 05:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75082)

Arcticfox: Sinclair

Quite a catch there, with the James Sinclair essay on faking a derivative market. I think this is just the organization of my random thoughts and (mis-?)understandings on the subject I have been looking for. Thanks. Now, back to reading the rest of it (or, back to sleep, if it wears ma wee brainie oot...)

Mr Gresham

(05/07/2002; 05:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75083)

Good mornin', CM

We're runnin' in the same groove lately, no?

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/07/2002; 06:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75084)

The Volcano is Volatile.

The dollar is doing its technical bounce and it's going to wipe out all the traders who got spooked to go long on the Euro. The high volatility in the POG is showing a reversal of sentiment among traders. Those equate to "spinning tops" a candle pattern denoting longs going short and shorts going long. They are all a little confused. When they buy or sell they say "What's a dollar mean 312 or 313 I don't care". To me it means the past general unbelief about gold's rally sustainability is turning into belief. Longs are licking their chops and shorts are feeling stupid. So changes are taking place. Longs are selling early taking some profits while shorts buy to cover before they get their heads handed to them.

What's amazing about Kaplan is that there hundreds of other non-gold analysts who follow him. Like a room full of parrots and they're clueless so they talk to each other. As long as they use all the lingo, it sounds like something. But we can't predict the migration of paper-pushers to goldbugs by examining the moths on the trees. Who is "net short or net long" doesn't even matter because this breakout is an unwinding short squeeze. Volatility is going UP,way up. We're are now entering the asteroid field that it broke 310. It's 1 Martini lunches for the boys in the metals pits now. Gotta get back to the action. What would it feel like to be a market maker for Intel or Cisco? It was supposed to breakout everyday for the past month. They have to be so full of stock like just give it away. And they all laugh at gold, but the gold longs are the ones smiling and going long and longer. Because the rally is REAL and don't have a heart attack yet. We are going to see hedge cover purchases FRONTRUNNING the POG ON ALL EXCHANGES. That's right a rally on every exchange as the buyers try to front run the next breakout. Barrick will have buyers on every exchange waiting for price dips. They all will. And when the new faces show up.........Who is He? Oh he buys for Anglogold or He buys for Barrick. No hiding in the wings. Those guys with their hands up in the air all day long aren't swating flies. We are past the Caldera smoke stage, times of the daily rumblings and shock tremors. But of course the town won't evacuate because gold has done this before. Not until the lava is in the air do they get in the car. The stock market is nothing but black spotted bananas and they say, "Here's a good one to get a bite out of here". Half the "picks" in the IBD "winners" coverage have volumes under 50,000 for the day. They're reaching down for the last wilted turnip. They can spoof oil and natural gas down so they do. They're giving up on gold attacks at this level. Rate of cash burn is too high. "Pull the boys back, these suits aren't made for these high temperatures." They'll try to "surround and drown" at 350.

Grubstaker

(05/07/2002; 06:50:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75085)

Black Blade (5/7/02; 01:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 75067)

What was it that Henny Penny said to Chicken little?..I can't seem to remember those infamous words of wisdom at this juncture...Ho Ho Ho is prety close, ay?

Whoa! Look at Spot and the Falling USD!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

Spot bounded over $314.00/oz. and the USD could flounder under 113 tonight. All major currencies are punishing the US Dollar. I see the Euro is popping up over 92 cents to the US Dollar. Oil is recovering slightly tonight as well. There is a lot of fear that the US markets will crash further on concerns over no real corporate earnings. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

A Canadian

(05/07/2002; 07:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75086)

@ GR2

Please don't ever leave us.
-immensively appreciative.

Siochain

(05/07/2002; 07:10:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75087)

http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A85256BB100782968?OpenDocument

The above link is included in Chris's GATA post of last night re the Barrick/Anglo rumored take-out of Gold Fields

I deliberately use the word TAKE-OUT for that is what it potentially might be ....yes, Barrick needs the unhedged gold....badly.....BUT based on their ties to the Cabal ...their VERY STRONG ties, I should say...I am concerned that there could be a sinister side to such a Take-out besides the immediate bail-out of Barrick's hedge

I see Barrick as a puppet who has willingly played with and is deeply intertwined with the Big Bad Boys...I wonder if this has deeper implications where the combo could be controlled by the Cabal and eventually used to attempt to bring down gold when the opportunity arises.

The plum of the largest gold company with deep SA assets may be just what the Bullion Banks etc are looking for....great leverage to attempt to fix gold again

Just my thought...and concern

nickel62

(05/07/2002; 07:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75088)

Black Blade I think you hit it right on the head...this has been a war to see who has the weakest currency for almost ten years now!

"Black Blade: This is quite funny actually. Everyone is fighting to keep a weaker currency. Governments everywhere are intervening in the markets. Meanwhile the US account deficit and trade deficit continues to grow. This could develop into a war over who can have the weakest currency."

You betch yah! They have been looking for that foreign trade export advantage without having to really make the hard decisions about restructuring their economies for years, both the Euro-Socialists and the Japanese. In the early 1990s Rubin percieved this and shoved the price of gold down and US dollar up knowing full well the other main players would willingly cooperate.

nickel62

(05/07/2002; 07:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75089)

Siochain I think you have it nailed exactly...

Sad but true the big boys are after all in control of most of the strings and it would make perfect sense if they need the cover that they would nail GOLDFIELDS. I guess we have all been assuming they would make a run at Newmont when the time comes to need more gold that is unhedged, but Goldfields might make more sense. This is most likly the "plumb" that was dangled in front of the Barrick board years ago when they were co-opted into the cabal years ago.

A Canadian

(05/07/2002; 07:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75090)

@ Black Blade

Like food on my table I take you for granted...until you're not there!
-wish I could repay. (everyone for that matter).

Siochain

(05/07/2002; 07:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75091)

@mikal (75043)

Thank you,very much! I missed all you wonderful Gold Troubadours (true Knights & Ladies, all) though the getaway was much needed and helped ...and thanks for keeping gold up...job well done!!!! (though keep it up...looks like we're under attack for the moment)

RobotGuy

(05/07/2002; 07:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75092)

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (05/07/02; 06:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 75084)

"Volatile Volcano" Well said! I'm going to read that one a couple more times!

I wish I shared the literary talents of the many in this forum!

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.

Grubstaker

(05/07/2002; 07:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75093)

Batter up!!

Gold off $2.80
US$ up $ .56
Looks like them YANKEES are still a pretty good darn team there in NYC..(markets).Home team is at bat..don't head for the hills quite yet..

Mr Gresham

(05/07/2002; 07:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75094)

GR2: Wow!

"Not until the lava is in the air do they get in the car."

Like listening to a symphony, hearing your mind and words play on all levels.

BTW, your metaphor matches experiences I heard of Navy and Filipino civilian evacuations from Subic Bay under Pinatubo's fiery eruption several years back. Wait too long, and they just have to stay in the house and hope for survival. (Who was it said: "Hope is a lousy investment strategy."?)

YGM

(05/07/2002; 07:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75095)

Cheap Retirement Home?

Try Argentina.....May 06, 2002

Argentina Real Estate Market Plummets

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina- Hung around the perimeter walls of President Eduardo Duhalde's residence in a well-heeled Buenos Aires suburb, a thousand for sale or rent placards tell the woeful story of Argentina's struggling real estate brokers who nailed them there.

For an X-ray view of how an unpopular banking freeze, the peso's painful devaluation and a lack of credit have paralyzed South America's No. 2 economy, just take a look at the property market.

Prices are in a tailspin, but nobody's buying. Their savings are trapped in a tottering banking system that doesn't have enough capital to return savers' cash, let alone grant new home loans.

Realtors say the paralysis threatens nearly 2 million jobs and predict the sector - like Argentina's economy as a whole - will only recover with firm government action and clear policies that will restore faith in the financial system.

But Enrique Colautti of Associated Realtors in Extinction, the pressure group that hung the plaques outside Duhalde's residence, compares piecemeal economic policies adopted by Duhalde so far to "trying to staunch a hemorrhage with a Band Aid."

"When they announced the devaluation in January, we had 17 deals lined up that simply evaporated overnight," said Paul A. Reynolds of JR Reynolds, an upmarket realtor with offices on a tree-lined avenue near Duhalde's residence.

"For over two months, we didn't close a single sale," he said. "Thank goodness we managed to pick up the slack with the rentals business. That has covered our costs."

With the peso plunging 70 percent, trading today at three to the U.S. dollar, property prices have plummeted as much as 60 percent and few Argentines - who still like to calculate their personal worth in greenback terms - are willing to sell at such discounts.

In any case, it's difficult for people to buy because their savings accounts were frozen in December to prop up the banking system.

"There's little consensus," said Reynolds. "There's no response to the lower prices because there's no cash available. All the money is tied into the banking system and there's no credit to be had."

So even wealthier home owners are opting to rent out their apartments and are looking for leases on smaller, cheaper ones.

According to Colautti, the crisis has put more than a quarter of the country's 25,000 realtors out of business, meaning 40,000 lost jobs.

The knock-on effect for the moribund construction and building supplies industry has been disastrous, he said, estimating some 1.8 million workers - 90 percent of the sector's workforce - are idle.

Can anything be done to revive the market?

For a while, homes could be bought and mortgages paid off with by transferring savings from the buyer's to the seller's account.

Immediately classified ads appeared in daily newspapers advertising traders who would buy and sell bank balances at a 20 percent discount.

But now, savings can't even be used for that, meaning home buyers must pay with cash stashed under their mattresses or in bank accounts abroad.

Duhalde still has not finalized a scheme to reimburse savers with government and private bank bonds. Reynolds predicted those bonds would be also used as a substitute money for real estate transactions.

Colautti is bolder, calling for a "mini-Marshall Plan" to get the construction industry back on its feet.

But funding could be difficult. Duhalde has failed so far to mend bridges with the International Monetary Fund that cut off Argentina's credit lines last December for failing to meet budget targets.

For now, those who can leave Argentina are doing so, putting more real estate on the market and further depressing prices.

Transpack Argentina, a shipper and removal company, has seen its ratio of international corporate moves shift from three outbounds for every two inbounds at the start of recession in 1998 to seven outbounds for every one inbound today.

"We're as busy as we've ever been," said Cliff Williams, Transpack's managing director, adding that in addition to more repatriations by multinationals that are scaling - or closing - down Argentine operations, shipping inquiries from individual Argentines have "skyrocketed."

"The emigration business of Argentines packing up and leaving has suddenly become more significant for us," he said. "It's going to take a long time to restore confidence and our government is to blame for that."

--

Henri

(05/07/2002; 08:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75096)

GR2

Love the black spotted bananas analogy to SM. :-) LOL. The owner of the grocery store usually ends up eating the cost of aquisition...hope the shareholders didn't pay too much for that batch. They were probably a tad overipe when purchased.

Sinclair's message that notional value becomes real value at $354 hit home with me. Previously I considered derivatives dangerous but didn't really know why. Thought perhaps its all just smoke and mirrors and zero net risk sums. Sinclair has convinced me otherwise and as an ex-arbitrage house operator has much credibility with me. It says something when the head of a mining company (Tan Ridge?) steers clear of derivatives.

Cudos to Dr Harry S. This is a feather in your cap to be sure. But I know you are not in it for feathers...you must have a heavy and full length headress by now.

Henri

(05/07/2002; 08:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75097)

Last chance to buy in Peru

If Peru adopts silver money, Peru will become a bastion of stability that other Soth American countries will emulate. Get your real estate there now.

Argentina is beautiful but the RE market is not yet ripe for plucking...Hope Ted Turner didn't mortgage his ranch there for overseas cash...if so his creditors might want some assurance. Perhaps his gold stash will bear liquidation.

Henri

(05/07/2002; 08:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75098)

Wow! Spot recovers nicely

Perhaps Anglo needed to close more of its forward sales and had to strike while the lattes had not yet woken up the rest of the traders. If so good for Anglo. It will be very interesting to see who supported $309...it might explain the quick rebound

canamami

(05/07/2002; 08:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75099)

Gold's enduring value

Some time ago, I read an article about a stash of Roman gold coins found in England. Apparently, it was the habit when things were unsettled, to put together a stash of gold coins. This stash apparently dated from the time just when the Romans abandoned England. Evidently, the family in question failed to escape with their gold. But, centuries later, those coins are still worth something, notwithstanding the end of the Roman Empire.

Cavan Man

(05/07/2002; 08:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75100)

Clear Channel $17 BILLION write down

A billion here, a billion there; pretty soon you're talking about real money. (Apologies to the late Senator Everett Dirkson, IL)

balzac

(05/07/2002; 10:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75101)

Derivative post by Sinclar.

Artic Fox,

Thank you for the very revealing post on the intricaces

of the derivatives scams. This is one of the clearest and
most insightful posts that I have ever read.

I appreciate your candor and hope that all of the "bugs"
read it carefully. If your thinking is correct we had better start exiting mining pos'ns at about $350.in order to avoid the melt down.

Balzac

Pizz

(05/07/2002; 10:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75102)

Painting a better picture?

http://www.fin-info.com/$main$nobody,,16863246$c049617e7623/press_release.phtml?symbol=CBJ&_time=20020507105020Hedged miner Cambior just announced earnings.

In the footnotes. . . . .

In order to secure the net mine cash flows necessary to meet its
financial obligations and satisfy bank covenants, the Company
maintains a Revenue Protection Program for its gold operations.

During the first quarter, the Company realized a price of $289 per
ounce corresponding with the average market price for the quarter.

The gold price at March 31, 2002 was $24 per ounce higher than at
December 31, 2001 resulting in a negative adjustment of $11.9
million to the mark-to-market value for non-hedge derivative
instruments which include call options and the variable volume
forwards. This charge has no impact on cash flows and any future
charges, either positive or negative, will decrease as these
non-hedge derivative instruments either expire or with the
delivery of the ounces under these optionalities. At March 31,
2002, the Company had gold commitments of 874,000 ounces at an
average price of $320 per ounce with minimum delivery obligation
of 261,000 ounces at $339 per ounce under these optional
instruments. In order to avoid these non-cash adjustments in
future, the Company has decided to minimize the use of these
optionalities and the mark-to-market value of these instruments
will become nil and have no further impact on the Company's
earnings subsequent to 2004. During the first quarter of 2002, the
quantity of gold included in the non-hedge derivative instruments
declined by 6% and will continue to decline through 2002.

Coincident with the recently announced unit offering, Cambior
shall use its reasonable best efforts to renegotiate its mandatory
hedging convenants under its Credit Facilities in order to permit
the Company to reduce the mandatory amount of its hedged gold
production from 70% to 35% of its projected production up to
December 31, 2005.

Pizz: This (non-hedge???)is naked call writing pure and simple. When they mark to market and lose 11 billion, it's just a book entry right now, but what about the future inpact on cash flows in a continuing rising gold market? How can they imply that future delivery at less than market value will have no effect on cash flows? They have the nerve to call this a "Revenue Protection Plan". They also kind of skip over the fact that they are not marking to market or booking the 23.5 million they are upside down in their hedged activities.

And then we have the bank(s) requirement of MANDATORY HEDGING?? 320 and 339 sure appear like they might be resistance areas going forward.

The banks own them pure and simple and the 1.8 million or so ounces committed to future delivery at fixed prices makes this mine nothing more than contract 'minimum wage' slaves to the derivitives holders.

I've just briefly reviewed this "unaudited" (naturally) statement, and they's propbably more gems to be pulled out of this.

Pizz

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/07/2002; 11:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75103)

Here to help.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Why should YOU buy gold from Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.

1-800-869-5115

nickel62

(05/07/2002; 11:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75104)

Pizz

Thanks for the very good analysis of the Cambior hedge situation. Keep it coming.

TownCrier

(05/07/2002; 12:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75105)

FOMC Press Release -- May 7, 2002

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2002/20020507/default.htmThe Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent.

The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee confirms that economic activity has been receiving considerable upward impetus from a marked swing in inventory investment. Nonetheless, the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters, an essential element in sustained economic expansion, is still uncertain.

In these circumstances, although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.

Voting against the action: none.

Pizz

(05/07/2002; 12:41:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75106)

Media spin

Listening to Sam Stoval of Standard & Poors being interviewed on WebFn. He was asked if he thought that with the FED not increasing rates, should we not see money movement into areas that would benefit from a lower dollar.

His answer was "Oh, you mean like Gold?". And the announcer kind of stammered and said something to the effect of, no, gold has already moved up.

With a little luck, the rating agencies may be the only independent force out there willing to not play the game anymore. Hope I'm not dreamin'.

Pizz

Pizz

(05/07/2002; 12:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75107)

Correction to my post 75102

In my comments I refered to the marking to market of 11 billion and it should have been 11 million. Sorry, just used the wrong index finger on the keyboard.

Pizz

nickel62

(05/07/2002; 13:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75108)

Manipulation, Conspiracy Theories????Man that Bloomberg News Service is starting to sound like a gold Bug!!!

05/07 14:55
Dynegy, Traders Fall on Concern Over Market Tampering (Update1)
By Jim Polson

Houston, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Dynegy Inc. and other California power suppliers tumbled on concern an admission of market manipulation by Enron Corp. will broaden government inquiries, which may hurt profit, analysts said.

Dynegy plunged as much as 19 percent. Mirant Corp. and Calpine Corp., which have power plants in California, dropped as much as 14 percent.

Enron, once the biggest energy trader, drove California prices higher by creating and then `` `relieving' phantom congestion'' on the power grid, according to company memos released by federal energy regulators. California Senator Dianne Feinstein will ask the Justice Department to begin a criminal investigation of power sales, the Washington Post said.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ``is going to look at this, and they will broaden their look to include other companies,'' said RBC Dain Rauscher Inc. analyst Mark Easterbrook, who rates Dynegy ``outperform'' and owns some of the shares. ``The market is knocking down the stocks, and waiting for answers later.''

FERC is investigating whether California power sellers should refund as much as $1.5 billion after electricity prices soared in late 2000 and early last year.

Shares of Dynegy, based in Houston, fell $2.35, or 16 percent, to $12.50 in midafternoon trading after touching $12.01. They had fallen 72 percent in the past year.

Dynegy Postpones Conference

Dynegy postponed a two-day conference for analysts from late May to August in order for Chief Executive Officer Chuck Watson and other executives to meet with credit-rating services, spokesman John Sousa said.

Persuading Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Inc. to maintain Dynegy's investment-grade credit ``is our top priority,'' Sousa said.

Moody's has said it may cut Dynegy's credit rating, now its lowest investment grade, to junk.

Mirant, based in Atlanta, declined $1.43, or 13 percent, to $9.66. San Jose, California-based Calpine dropped 99 cents, or 10 percent, to $8.76.

Enron filed for bankruptcy in early December. It's facing more than a dozen investigations for inflating earnings and hiding debt.

YGM

(05/07/2002; 13:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75109)

Arcticfox (05/07/02; 04:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 75078)

Thank You ........That was the most enlightening look into the nether world I have ever read. Hopefully it will make (the article) a long journey around the Gold Traders desks via e-mail.....YGM.

PS:
I could easily believe Mr Sinclair may even have had a lunch or two with FOA & ANOTHER!

Go Gold, Go Physical & GO GATA >>>>

nickel62

(05/07/2002; 14:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75110)

Enron is the lit fuse that is going to open this bankster led market manipulation out into the open for the public to see!

The various scandels in the US have always been swept under the rug because too many of the politicos could keep the media and the sheeple under control. This time there are smoking guns and bleeding pensioners all over the place and no politican is going to be able to double talk his/her way out of this without having to face some furious investors/401K holders/voters come this fall. For the first time in a long time the sharks desire for blood is getting to the real criminals because they have no choice. It becomes US or them. The Democrats are trying to hang the blame on the Republicans and even the dumbest rock in the box can see that it is all of them. We live in interesting times, and maybe this time our media will have to keep covering it because the dumb beast of public opinion wants blood for being taken. Whether the grasshoppers in California or the now jobless and pensionless Anderson and Enron employees or the tens of millions of clueless NASDUCK and DOW/DOG investors, they are all awakening. Let the bloodletting begin. This tumor is going to really bleed.

sector

(05/07/2002; 14:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75111)

GATA Will Release a very big [Exclusive] story this evening

http://www.Lemetropolecafe.comAnd it's not the Barrick/AngloGold/GoldFields rumor.

It's about the bad guys.

Mr Gresham

(05/07/2002; 14:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75112)

HOF Nomination: miner49er (5/3/02; 06:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74821)

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/320025/default.htmlTrade Settlement in Malaysia - Old Wine in New Wineskins...?

I _knew_ there was a reason why I kept an Archive window open from Friday, and finally I got a chance to read down far enough to find it.

miner49er discusses Mahathir's ideas for gold use in trade settlement, compares it to Euro ideas, and considers much about currency timelines, a la FOA.

I still need to hear more about what the Euro-makers are trying to do, and how their currency will differ from the Dollar, other than avoiding a growing list of mistakes and abuses. miner49er is thinking along these lines and pointing us toward seeing it as more than the Un-Dollar (and if we encourage him ;-) , he'll write us more pieces like this one, I betcha!!! )

balzac

(05/07/2002; 14:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75113)

PRODUCTIVITY GAINS.

Bloomberg Headlines:" Productivity gains fastest in 19 years"

Why does Bloomberg print this propaganda?

Productivity can't really be measured except at the cost of human stress and suffering among the unemployed.

More BLS B.S.!!!

WHEN DOES THE PHONY CHEERLEADING STOP?

RobotGuy

(05/07/2002; 14:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75114)

Balzak

If they were really buying it, the market wouldn't have dropped back down today. I feel we're getting closer to getting through. We haven't heard too many anti-goldbug preachings lately have we! Why criticize something you are about to be, someone might remember!

Cheers!!

Siochain

(05/07/2002; 14:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75115)

Well ME PeaceChance is in jeoprady again

Large explosion tied to suicide bombing near TelAviv ....so far 15 reported killed...more than 30 injured...and it goes on and on....till....War

Graefin

(05/07/2002; 15:01:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75116)

Balzac: Productivity...

With unemployment running rampant and the threat of lay-offs, wouldn't you work harder??
- Gr�fin

Siochain

(05/07/2002; 15:21:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75117)

Bush

GWB is now giving joint press conference with Sharon....he truly looks like a deer caught in the headlights amd is clearly shook...his words are jumbled with no clarity.....all he keeps repeating is we all want peace...this is our Leader.....scary!

Aristotle

(05/07/2002; 15:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75118)

Stating the obvious

Thanks to the internet dissemination of non-traditional highly educational facilities exemplified by none better than USAGOLD, I can't imagine that there is anyone actively participating in any facet of the Gold market these days who isn't fully aware of the virility (for lack of a better word) of their investment choices.

The key to a brighter future is to be found in the process of continuing education for young and old alike. With new births every day, each generation must learn from zero, while for us older codgers, we know the world always changes today such that yesterday's knowledge is incrementally less applicable to tomorrow's events. I'd like to believe that it's because we're mindful toward building a better future for all that acts as the prime motivation for our vigorous give and take.

Whatever the reason, on that note, here's my latest contribution for the benefit of new arrivals, at the risk of boring the old timers.

Lots of people are (in the loose sense of the word) buying Gold these days. Just look at London's massive daily clearing numbers through the LBMA -- averaging over 500 tonnes each day throughout the latest reporting month. Wow!

(Yeah, yeah... I know it's old news to many of you.)

In New York, yesterday's trading volume of contracts through COMEX (ignoring options) ran nearly 80 tonnes, open interest hovering at 590 tonnes. Sure, there are other trading centers we could look at, but I'm trying to keep this brief. Hopefully, you get the idea that there are a lot of people "buying Gold."

But what are they paying for it? Or, more importantly, what are they, as a whole, ***getting*** for their money?

Since we're dealing with Gold, let's try to keep this in terms that are more familiar to the Gold industry as a means to help the newbies become gently introduced to the more complicated and less familiar world of finance.

So again, with all of this buying interest, what are they getting for their money?

Let's do an assay! As all refiners and miners know, the value of Gold ore (and ultimately the price that one might expect to pay or get paid for it) depends on the purity of the product. That is, "What amount of this product is the real Gold? What percent is worthless impurity?" A laboratory assessment, an assay, will answer that question.

If, for example, a one-hundred ounce lump of "Gold" assays at 2 percent pure Gold and 98% dross (garbage), then you should rightfully expect the market price of these 100-ounce lumps of "Gold" to be reflective of only the 2-ounce actual Gold content.

Imagine being among the lucky people who discovered that through a quirk in the market you could buy certain 100-ounce lumps that were priced by the market AS THOUGH they were 98 percent corrupt with impurities, and yet the 100-ounce item you could take delivery of at that discounted price was actually 100 ounces of fully refined full-bodied four-nines (.9999) Gold! Believe it or not, this is very nearly what happens when you pay the spot price for Gold and then claim the metal for personal safekeeping.

Trading statistics have shown that that vast majority of trading volume on formalized derivative instruments (such as the COMEX gold futures) are wholly paper trades independent of market connections to the physical underpinnings. Even before the explosion of market volumes through the mid and late 1990's, a study in 1993 familiar to Martin Mayer revealed that only 0.64% (scant more than half a percent) of all futures contracts were settled by physical delivery.

Additionally, here's a parallel that should get you thinking. In a study of the International Money Market , the Chicago Merc has estimated that due to the proliferation of customized Over-The-Counter arrangements, only 4% of all dollar volume of foreign exchange actually goes through standard futures and options instruments on the exchanges -- and yet they set the prices!

By extending this understanding to the trade occurring in the Gold market, much of the product being bought, sold, and traded is dominated by notional paper impurities, and the market price "per ounce" surely reflects this diluted assay. Only by taking delivery can you leverage your buying power because with each ounce you will be claiming pure Gold at a market price reflective of a highly impure specimen.

The actual role and importance of the pure Gold content within the entire "Gold" market becomes highly concentrated in your personal involvement in the market. Meanwhile, those who are complacent to hold just their leveraged paper proxies actually have NO GOLD AT ALL to show for their personal involvement in the aggregate market. In fact, they merely add to the dilution of the overall "assay" and functional price.

Maybe it will seem more compelling if I put it to you this way:

When looking at the aggregate Gold trade and its aggregate product, it is through their foolhardy purchase and acceptance of "just the impurities" in truly massive trading that actually underwrites your own ability to purchase and receive the "pure Gold portion" at the same low price Ounce per "ounce" as them. By all means, take advantage of their unintentional generosity!

Economically speaking with an eye to world events, these pathetic paper holders will likely see their own folly only during a critically important test "under fire" -- to assess the held specimen's value irrespective of price paid and promises made during its acquisition.

Such a critical assessment would reveal, for those with metallic Gold, a product that tested out and survived with the value of REAL Gold. For those with paper "Gold," their holdings would test out at 0.000, leaving the holder with a stark realization that he received none of the benefits or value of Gold for his money.

Gold. Get you some. Ching ching ching... piles and piles of coins. Wealth and liquidity for your future. --- Aristotle

Waverider

(05/07/2002; 16:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75119)

Gold's Best Performance Since 1993 Attracts Investors

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNg6dRXBR29sZCdzSnippit:(Bloomberg)

"Gold is having its best year since 1993, trading at two-year highs above $300 an ounce and providing investors with returns that outpace stocks and bonds.

Gold futures traded in New York have risen 12 percent this year. Prices are up 7.5 percent since mid-March, compared with a 7.3 percent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the same period. A prolonged slump in stock and bond markets might send gold above $400 an ounce for the first time since the 1987 stock market crash, some traders say."

USAGOLD

(05/07/2002; 16:39:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75120)

Anyone. . .

Do we have a credible read on how an oil embargo might affect Japan's banks? Any direct connection, in other words, between the health of Japanese banks and the MidEast crisis? Obviously, anything that would induce further Japanese private gold demand would be of interest. Any articles? Studies? Etc. Japan imports 100% of its oil. Add that to the fact, that my initial take on the Sharon meetings is that we have had a serious breakdown in the peace process. Hopefully, we haven't hit the wall, but what if we have?

Boilermaker

(05/07/2002; 18:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75121)

Japanese Energy Overview

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/japan.htmlMichael,
Here's a brief rundown of the Japanese energy mix. Clearly they are more dependent on imports on a percentage compared to the US but their relative energy efficiency helps to offset that disadvantage. Can't say how it affects the banking sector.

Japanese Energy

Japan lacks significant domestic sources of energy and must import substantial amounts of crude oil, natural gas, and other energy resources, including uranium for its nuclear power plants. In 1999, the country's dependence on imports for primary energy stood at more than 79%. Oil provided Japan with 52% of its total energy needs, coal 15%, nuclear power 15%, natural gas 13%, hydroelectric power 4%, and renewable sources 1.3%. About half of Japan's energy is used by industry and about one-fourth by transportation, with nearly all the rest used by the residential, agricultural, and service sectors. Japan's energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) is among the lowest in the developed world.

OIL
Japan contains almost no oil reserves of its own (59 million barrels of proven oil reserves), but is the world's second largest oil consumer (after the United States). In 2001, Japan consumed an estimated 5.44 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, down from 5.53 million bbl/d in 2000. Most (75%-80%) of this oil came from OPEC, particularly Persian Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran. Japan has worked -- with relatively little success -- to diversify its oil import sources away from the Middle East. Another oil supplier to Japan is China, which, while it is a net oil importer, supplies light oil from its Daqing field for use in Japanese power plants. Until 1996, when Japan's oil consumption peaked at nearly 5.9 million bbl/d, Japanese oil consumption (and imports) had been growing steadily for years. After 1997, Japan's oil consumption declined as its economic slump caused demand by industrial and other users to decline.

mikal

(05/07/2002; 18:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75122)

@USAGOLD Re: Oil Embargo

@USAGOLD "the affect on Japanese banks"- That could be the lynchpin in a new physical gold market. Such an embargo would devastate Nippon industries, leaving waves of debt defaults and bank failures mitigated only by repatriation of US dollar holdings, and sale of US equities, bonds, real estate, and/or factories. The dollar affects would be direct and indirect, worldwide, impacting every aspect of commerce and industry.

slingshot

(05/07/2002; 18:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75123)

Silver

Poor Mans GoldThe POG has been holding its own and I believe some of the attention has overflowed into the physical buying of silver.
Today at the coin dealer I asked for 100 ozs in silver. He
then asked his assistant if he had 100ozs. of silver. There was some discussion which contained phrases like "I don't know" and "We sold a large amount lately". I was looking at the, you snooze, you loose syndrome. Yet they managed to fill my order. I asked the coin dealer how was his sales in silver.
He stated that the average sales is between 100 and 300 ozs.
and sales are getting heavier.

Guess the buyers are beating the tax below $500.00 sales.
To note, I remember when a large sale was 20 to 30 ozs.
Yes, his premium was slightly higher.

Just had to smile on the ride home. :)

Slingshot

R Powell

(05/07/2002; 18:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75124)

Middle East Peace?

A serious breakdown in the peace process?
Michael, this implies that some progress or hope of progress preceeded the breakdown. Other than the politics of pomp and circumstance or the ongoing verbal assurances by both sides that each is guiltless and each wants peace, was anything at all accomplished that could breakdown?
With any measureable degree of honesty, both sides would vocalize spit and venom at the other that would make a viper envious. At the risk of sounding callous, perhaps a no holds barred war would create enough misery so that both sides would come to welcome and appreciate peace enough to accept that peace requires compromise and commitment. Both sides have legimate grievances and pain but neither side apparently has traveled far enough beyond feelings of indignation, righteous hatred and religious fervor to approach the effort necessary for peace (co-existance). Imagine there's no heaven.....I wish there were no religions. I imagine that the good Lord wishes the same.
Rich

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 18:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75125)

Moscow bans foreigners from visiting resource-rich regions

Moscow (dpa) - In a revisitation of Soviet-era restrictions on foreigners' movements, the Russian government imposed a travel ban on another "strategically important" region in the country's resource- rich north, the Itar-Tass news agency reported Tuesday.

The upper part of the Yamal-Nenets region is now only accessible to foreigners with special permission from the FSB Federal Security Service. The area holds some of Russia's largest oil and gas fields. The measure follows a similar ban imposed last November to the nickel-producing town of Norilsk in the Arctic circle. Local airlines may no longer sell foreigners tickets to these areas without FSB approval.

Russia has become increasingly sensitive about access to its natural resources. Last month the government also classified information about the country's reserves of crude oil and some rare metals as a state secret. Revealing state secrets carries up to four years imprisonment.

Black Blade: This is interesting news. Note that Russia has been buying its own Gold production for central bank reserves for some time now, the PGM stockpiles are depleted and deliveries to western markets are sporadic at best, and the Caspian Sea oil production has not lived up to expectations. Something is going on. I emailed a couple of my contacts to see if they know what's going on. I haven't heard back yet, though my friend Sergei has been saying that the PGM stockpiles were raided during the 1998 Russian Bond default for "hard currency" and all subsequent deliveries have been from currnt production at Norilsk Nickel and other smaller by-product operations.

YGM

(05/07/2002; 18:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75126)

JP Morgan Chase.......

Sounds like they're toast.......I'm not sure if I can post lemetropolecafe link here so I'll wait for GATA email release....This "IS SOME STORY" Morgan is way under water w/ Gold Shorts.....Ya Hoo!
More vindication for GATA supporters and believers!

Cavan Man

(05/07/2002; 18:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75127)

R Powell

No, The Lord wishes we would practice what we preach. "Religion" is not the problem; people are who are unknowingly in league with satan. "Religion", especially the Christian "religion" is the answer. It is ALL summed up thusly:

1. Love God.
2. Love your neighbor.

#1 and #2 cover everything--everything.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 18:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75128)

Post Office to Cut 8,000 More Jobs

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=703&e=9&u=/ap/20020507/ap_on_go_ot/postal_finances_2
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - More than 8,000 additional full-time jobs will be cut by the Postal Service this year as the agency struggles to contain its losses in the face of declining business.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows. I work to help out the Post Office myself. When I get "junk mail" with a postage paid return envelope I write a "no thanks" on the insert and then I cram as much weighty junk into the envelope as possible. This way the offending mailer has to pay for the postage (and therefore helping out the cash-strapped Post Office) and I get rid of a lot of garbage. Also, those cards for subscriptions, junk, etc. I just send those in to with a return address to some local politician, city official or local police officer at their place of work. This also helps out the Post Office as they not only get paid by the offending mailer, but the offending mailer gets to pay to mail out more junk to someone else. Hey, I am only doing my part to give the Post Office a helping hand. So pull together now and help keep a mailman emplyed.

Canuck

(05/07/2002; 18:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75129)

@ YGM, sector,all

As a preamble to the GATA release forthcoming this evening I draw attention to Cabal_Breaker's 20:02 message over at G-E.

Tks to CB

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 18:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75130)

Office vacancy climbs to 19%

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/3213127.htm
Snippit:

Bay Area commercial real estate has continued to nose-dive this year, logging the highest office vacancy rates in more than a decade and causing rents to slide steeply. The overall office vacancy rate reached 19 percent in the first quarter of 2002 -- higher than during the 1990-91 recession, according to a report by BT Commercial Real Estate.

Black Blade: Economic recovery eh? Hmmm�

Arcticfox

(05/07/2002; 19:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75131)

Jim Sinclair mentioned here again...

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=DROOY&read=9977I hope it's alright to send readers to this site. I think the read may be worth it.

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 19:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75132)

The Glitter of Gold

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29693082&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

Gold is more interesting today than it has been at any time since the late '70s, when it was allowed to trade freely again in the United States. Back then (1977, to be precise), it started at $75. The gold bug crew made a strong case that it was worth $300 an ounce. Instead, the metal blasted through $300 and peaked at $800, when it made the cover of Money magazine.

Back then, the fear behind the rise was galloping inflation, the prospect of Saudi Arabia buying everything on the New York Stock Exchange (no kidding, someone calculated how long it would take), and worries there would be no recycling of the billions of "petrodollars" we exported in exchange for OPEC oil.

Today, the fears are different, but related. Here are the pillars that support the case for gold:

Gold production is sagging while demand is rising.

Central banks have sold about as much gold as they dare sell.

A rising supply of dollars in foreign hands.

A trade deficit that won't go away.

The dollar is overvalued.

Gold is the alternative to the dollar: the euro and the yen don't qualify.

Low real rates of interest.

Global financial weakness and worry.

While gold has traditionally been a haven in times of angst, we've been through all kinds miserable events in the last 20 years, and gold has neither spiked nor soared. Until recently.

Now, gold is over $300, and people are buying once again. Japanese families are buying. The Chinese government is buying. And you can bet it is still being accumulated in the Middle East.

Put it all together and a good case can be made for $500-an-ounce gold, with plenty of room for a major anxiety spike. My favorite rule of thumb is called the "good man's suit" rule -- an ounce of gold should be enough to buy a good man's suit. By that measure, gold should be selling at more than $600. It could easily be twice that, without considering Oxxford or Brioni.

Black Blade: The tide has turned and Gold is just about the only sector left as this economy "recovers" (according to Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls).

R Powell

(05/07/2002; 19:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75133)

Cavan Man

Reread your post and note your use of the word "especially". This is part of the problem.
I have no problem with most humanitarian teachings of most religions. They are quite similar.
Religion, as manifested in harmful actions and as the justification for these is what I object to.
Has there ever been a soldier in any war, at any time who didn't have at least one god on his side? For god and country! Any god and every country.
I'll let you have the last word after this as I'm off topic other than saying that IMHO there will be no lasting peace or secure oil source in our time. In this regard, safe haven for wealth storage will be a lasting issue. Why would anyone want to hold dollars in the middle-east?
Rich

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 19:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75134)

Jittery investors spur gold to new highs

http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/05/07/rtr593865.html
Snippit:

LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to its highest in more than two years on Tuesday as the dollar floundered and the outlook for equity markets appeared grim, sending investors scrambling for a haven for their cash. A weaker dollar and faltering U.S. stock markets had restored gold's role as a haven in times of trouble, traders said. "While the U.S dollar remains weak, it is hard to see gold correcting," said John Reade, analyst at UBS Warburg. The dollar hit fresh two-month lows against the yen and seven-month troughs on both the euro and Swiss franc on Tuesday.

The dollar was weighed down in part by a sell-off on Wall Street overnight, triggered by a dismal economic and earnings outlook and expectations the Federal Reserve would not lift interest rates at its policy meeting today. A weak U.S. currency makes gold cheaper for overseas investors and jewellery makers and less attractive in local terms for foreign gold mining companies to sell. "Investors appear more concerned with finding a safe haven for their wealth given the prevailing volatile political situation in the Middle East and uncertainty in the financial markets," Standard Bank's London metals team said in a report.

Black Blade: Looks good for Gold.

Cavan Man

(05/07/2002; 19:32:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75135)

Hey Rich

Those harmful actions are corruption; get it? Good luck with your beliefs. I don't know about you but I am going to need it (luck). Right on with your thoughts and shalom...CM

YGM

(05/07/2002; 19:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75136)

Excerpt from MIDAS Report @ the Cafe.......JP Morgan Chase etc.

Everyone knows how to get there I'm sure........***Here's hoping this doesn't get me in trouble, but my excitement is too much to bear....This is part of the Cartel that cost me $350K & a wife....So s---- Them...

Excerpt...

J.P. Morgan Chase Gold Department In Serious Trouble

This morning I received a phone call from the best of sources in South Africa. The source has a friend who spent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chase senior bankers. The friend was told by the Morgan people that they have "lost control of the gold market and that the gold derivative department was a mess." The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P. Morgan Chase (the bank itself) might not make it through the year. They suggested my source buy $330 Feb gold calls.

Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my source received the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of The Gold Cartel bullion banks:

*There is an investigation now being conducted on the gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase.

*The man who ran the department was fired.

*This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was called "still a rumor" by the CNBC host.

*It appears the conspiracy guys were right all along.

A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that the man who ran Morgan's gold derivative department had indeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?

Subsequently, another outstanding source informs me he hears Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts when Reg Howe revealed their OCC gold derivative position a couple of years ago. He called in his accountants, etc, to find out how that happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis document. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell and I presented that document to the Speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. Then, I delivered it to every member of the House and Senate banking committees the following day.

Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we had to say.

This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and Jim Sinclair have alerted Caf� members to:

*The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.

*A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.

*Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.

*The price of gold is going to explode.

*There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.

The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets and the Fed must all be in a state of sheer panic over gold. There is a feeling by some in the GATA camp that they will orchestrate a massive bailout - like request the IMF to sell their gold. Anything is possible, but to do anything now might be sheer folly and tip their hand that GATA was right all along. Why should anyone care if gold goes to $400 or $500, much less $350? All that would do is be a boon for the sub-Saharan Africa, a bonanza for their economies. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's credibility is very good in Africa. If The Gold Cartel comes up with some trumped up reason to sell gold, I shall try and see some of the leaders of the gold producing countries and point out what has been done to them and why. I shall refocus their attention on the following matter (courtesy of the Charleston Voice):

"GO GATA" "GO GATA" "GO GATA" & GO PHYSICAL!!!!!
BUY ALL CPM'S GOLD & LEAVE NONE FOR THE CROOKS!

Chris Powell

(05/07/2002; 19:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75138)

Morgan's gold derivatives department has lost control

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099Morgan Chase gold derivatives department's loss
of control of the gold price is threatening the
entire banking house.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

YGM

(05/07/2002; 19:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75139)

View Entire GATA Email Re: Morgan @ Link

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099I should have waited 5 more min....Sorry for losin my cool here....YGM.

Siochain

(05/07/2002; 19:50:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75140)

@USAGOLD Re: Oil Embargo

I would concur with the previous posts re negative impact of oil embargo. Although my last trip to Japan was four years ago, oil concerns were still high on their fear list.

Additionally, doing the roaring years of Japan economy when they thought they were becoming Economic Power #1, banks pursued offering very high risk loans with little to no collateral.....potential for growth was the criteria.

This practice later hit the banks hard as many of these companies later folded as the economy softened....yet from what I understand the banks still sought to keep up their loan portfolios with even higher risks....a nasty spiral.

Should an embargo impact Japan's industries, there is little doubt in my mind that will push many more companies to bankruptcy and the banks in turn

One curious thought though is whether any US or foreign banks are getting involved with their Japanese counterparts

I mentioned awhile ago that one of my very close relatives has put together some very lucrative takeovers of Japanese Insurance Companies

I asked him tonight if banks were also doing so though he didn't know specifically ....he said he wouldn't be surprised since Japan was desperate and was offering some sweetheart deals.

My reason for raising the question of whether US Banks are getting involved in Japan banking would be a possible double whammy should Japan sink....though if they are...I'd love to see the deals made

Though IMO, if push comes to shove, I would expect that Japan would willing make any deal including getting rid of US notes in order to secure oil

YGM

(05/07/2002; 19:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75141)

I'm Still Doing My Part..... (even if it is repititious)

Sending the GATA E-mail and James Sinclairs Article......to every doggoned bullion traders/media desk on my mailing list.....And it's a long list!!!!

& Thanks to Arcticfox for the heads up on that article too!

Getting even does and always will have a measure of satisfaction, no matter how small the payday....7 years I've waited for the derivatives trade to collapse. What's another few months?

USAGOLD

(05/07/2002; 20:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75142)

YGM. . .All. . .

When I said a few months ago that we were "one Enron away from the greatest gold bull market in history," I meant it. Who did I have in mind as that "one Enron?" JP Morgan and Dinsa Mehta. If this information is correct (and there's enough smoke blowing around the gold market to think that it just might be), this is the biggest development for gold in a long time. I believe that JPMorgan and Dinsa Mehta were at the center of the derivatives programs aimed at keeping a lid on the gold market. If Bill Murphy's sources are correct -- if we indeed are looking at the possible collapse of the JP Morgan gold department and the bank itself -- this has substantial implications for the gold market but Wall Street itself. We need verification of this news. Perhaps a call to Mr. Mehta at Morgan/Chase is in order. It would be interesting to settle the question whether or not he's still on the job. If he has indeed lost his job, it might explain the wild scramble going on behind the scenes in the gold market -- the hedge buy-backs, the merger rumors, indeed to some of us, the palpable smell of fear. It would also explain gold moving as it has without visible opposition. As for the short side of the gold market, it may have come down to every man for himself. If so, once the hedge funds get the smell of blood in the water, you could very well see gold move up $100, $200 in a blink. And, too, if JP Morgan and Mehta are out of the game, the wild scramble will begin for physical gold -- the newly Holy Grail for the gold world. Another and FOA are going to proven correct, my friends, and this is not hyperbole or a sales pitch. . . . ..

Arcticfox

(05/07/2002; 20:10:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75143)

So much for free markets...check out this graph tonight!

http://www.astrikos.com/public/japan.htmlWhere will it end when you have a situation where you have a government propping up their domestic markets, increasing their money supply by 50% in two months and promoting a week currency to export deflation to a country with a 30% overvalued currency which will soon be approaching a 6% trade deficit? Gotta "luv" Au...

Canuck

(05/07/2002; 20:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75144)

Enron memos reveal plans

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam%2Fsearch%2Ftgam%2FSearchFullStory2.html&cf=tgam%2Fsearch%2Ftgam%2FSearchFullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam%2Fconfig&encoded_keywords=enron&option=☆t_row=5¤t_row=5☆t_row_offset1=0&search_results_start=1#_rows=1The memos FERC obtained and released yesterday detail strategies such as "Inc-ing," in which Enron would submit unrealistic trading schedules to create "phantom congestion" on the power grid administered by the California Independent System Operator (ISO).

Enron would receive payments from the ISO to relieve the phantom congestion the company's traders had created. The memos also discuss a strategy known as "Death Star," in which Enron would receive payments from the ISO "to relieve congestion without actually moving any energy or relieving any congestion," FERC said.

The memos also discuss Enron's strategy for "laundering" electricity to avoid the power price caps in the electricity spot markets administered by the ISO and the now-defunct California Power Exchange.

The megawatt-laundering, which Enron called "ricocheting," involved moving power out of California to neighbouring states where the price caps didn't apply, and then reselling that power back into the California ISO at prices above the cap that applied only to in-state transactions.

Other strategies had colourful names such as "Get Shorty" and "Fat Boy," which, along with the "Death Star" strategy, sound eerily akin to the names Enron gave its questionable off-the-balance-sheet partnerships that forced the company into bankruptcy late last year.

slingshot

(05/07/2002; 20:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75145)

Seige Engine

Gold to DA MOOOOONAfter a day and a half of bombardment to his refuge ,the Lord of the castle wanted to look at the damage being inflicted. He was confident his fortress would withstand the assault for some time untill he peered over the wall. What he saw was a flaw in the construction The builders had made it thick by building two thin walls and filling the space between them with discarded material. As long as the outer remained intact the fill stayed in place. Now, as the Goldbugs and their machine have pierced the outer part of the wall, the fill is pouring out making a ramp even before the tower falls. He knows now time is short and calls his Knights to plan his defense.

Pizz

(05/07/2002; 20:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75146)

JPM

Now I know why JPM puts were unusually strong today.

Might be a bit interesting in the morning.

Pizz

sector

(05/07/2002; 20:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75147)

Leonard Kaplan...A Babbling Brook of Wierdness

The Prospector Report May 5"...We are also seeing that the old-time investors in gold are actually selling into this rally, and not much physical buying is occurring. When investor interest in physical gold is high, premiums on gold coins rise. Even as gold continues to make 2-year highs, premiums on gold coins such as US Eagles remain quite low and well below replacement costs at the US Mint. Perhaps even a better example is the sad case of US $20 Liberty Head gold coins in XF/AU condition (slightly circulated). These numismatic coins, which were minted from the 1850's to 1907 (now almost at least 100 years old), are trading in the market for just $15 to $25 USD (each coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold) above their precious metal melt content, probably as low a premium as has been seen since the 1970's. This fact would certainly infer that "old-time" investors are selling as new investors are buying. But the new investors are seeking investment venues with greater transparency, greater leverage, and greater security, and are shunning the old investment vehicles such as coins.

I would expect that this trend will continue, to the financial detriment of those owners of physical gold coins and bars. I urge readers of this commentary, who hold physical coins, to call our offices (afternoons are best) for a discussion of possible strategies to avoid further losses. Historically, on many sharp gold rallies, such coins have traded at or below spot, and if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. ..."
+++++++++++++++++++++++
What is this bozo talking about? Did I miss something?
I bought some American Eagles in the fall at a delivered price of $280 The margin has risen to at least 3% since and of course there's the pog at $312. I think of it as undeveloped real estate in a prime area�an emergency fuel supply should the incompetent government do what we all know they are going to do.

Occasionally Kaplan makes a modicum of sense when speaking about bullion bank matters...then this latest rant comes along.

He speaks of transparency in COMEX paper? Who are the COMEX longs, by name? The TOCOM lists them for all to see. For example anyone can see that Mitsui, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi are all short gold in open interest by 96% to 99% of all contracts and all have been that way for years. Nobody stakes out lop-sided futures position like these without an official backer...most likely the BOJ. Get rich in COMEX gold futures�buy from Leonard�none of that untrustworthy physical�there's no leverage.

So the learned Mr. Kaplan wishes us to believe that the paper COMEX is as good as the real thing in hand...as if the TOCOM really DIDN'T default a few years back on it's platinum contracts. More than a few people have suggested that the COMEX will default on its gold contracts when it becomes clear that the shorts [Read JPM, Goldman Sachs et, al.] don't HAVE the gold. But don't worry� one will receive perfectly good paper from the COMEX�less a bit of leverage, of course.

Kaplan might as well wear a cardboard sandwich for the cabal. What a worthless shill.

sector

(05/07/2002; 20:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75148)

@slingshot...About the seige engine

It's called a trebuchet...and it works a little like your handle throwing a 250 pound stone ball 800 feet.eom

mikal

(05/07/2002; 20:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75149)

@Slingshot Re: Siege

ROFLMAO! Encore! Encore! Silver Feather gazed upward, her attention fixed on the golden pall radiating from the rising moon. This is a special juncture, she knew, occurring only when the elements are at a peak of harmony. The wolves howls seemed to rise in tandem, calling "TOOoo DAAaa MOOoon" She drew her slingshot from its sheath, and let the moonlight fall upon it, singing, and rejoicing.

slingshot

(05/07/2002; 20:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75150)

sector

trebuchetThank you sector. Yes truly a marvel of its time. I just could not remember the name.
Two designs were one with a solid counterbalance mostly made of lead. The other design had a wooden basket or box.
Range and accuracy determined by adding or decreasing weight to counterbalance'size of projectile(stone) or adjusting lenght of the sling.Not a nice thing to see if you lived in a castle.

I'm going to have to write that down.;O)
Thanks again
Slingshot

Arcticfox

(05/07/2002; 20:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75151)

And so it continues... I wonder what Sharon's response will be??

WASHINGTON (AP) - Hurrying home after a suicide attack killed more than a dozen people in Israel, an enraged Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon declared Tuesday there was no way to move forward on Mideast peace with a Palestinian Authority that he called a "terrorist and corrupt entity."
Sharon, cutting short his visit to Washington after the attack, vowed to keep up Israel's campaign to stop Palestinian terror attacks.

"Our work is not done," he declared. "The battle continues and will continue until all those who believe that they can make gains through the use of terrorism will cease to exist - cease to exist," the prime minister declared in a hastily called news conference before leaving for Israel.

Without mentioning Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat by name, a bitter Sharon declared that the attack provided "proof of the true intentions of the person leading the Palestinian Authority." Sharon has been resisting entreaties from President Bush to negotiate with Arafat to get the Arab-Israeli peace process on track.

Sharon, who learned of the bombing during an Oval Office meeting with Bush, declared over and over that those who support or fund or perpetrate terrorism are "guilty, guilty." Earlier in Sharon's visit to Washington, the Israeli government presented U.S. officials with a dossier laying out what it said was evidence that Arafat was a sponsor of terrorism against Israel, a charge the Palestinians denied.

"Israel will not surrender to blackmail," Sharon declared. "Israel will not surrender to blackmail."

He said the Israeli military offensive against militants in Palestinian towns and villages had made great strides in rooting out the terrorist infrastructure but that the job clearly was not done.

"He who rises up to kill us, we will pre-empt and kill him first," he said.

Sharon, speaking first in Hebrew and then in English, said he was departing for Israel "with a heavy heart - heavy with grief and heavy with rage."

He said it was "the rage of each and every Jew in the world."

The address was carried live on television in both Israel and the United States.

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAEHMNKY0D.html

Aristotle

(05/07/2002; 20:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75152)

Sector on Kaplan

The best take on Kaplan's comments that I've yet to hear were posted in the small hours of today.

And�ril (05/07/02; 01:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 75071)

I think his point is well made. These are the words of a dying man.

If indeed the Gold chapter of JP Morgan's derivatives book goes down in flame, what do you think that will do to the confidence in counterparty performance not just the OTC Gold derivatives, but the exchange-traded COMEX ones as well?

Would anyone in their right mind be a buyer of COMEX futures???! Can a market survive under conditions of ASK/NO BID? No... I thought not.

Real Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

slingshot

(05/07/2002; 21:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75153)

sector

Just one more laughI drew a picture of a trebuchet before I knew what it was called and went around asking, Do you know what this is called? My favorite answer. I don't know, what is it?

Good Night All
Slingshot-------------<>

YGM

(05/07/2002; 21:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75154)

The Fortress Of CPM Castle.....

Is a Bastion of Wisdom & Sanity.........And although I never brought much wisdom to the tables I've gained much, "AND" if it were not for these halls and the priviledge of roaring out my rants of indignation and outrage amongst those who educated and calmed such as I, then I fear my sanity might have been questionable...As it stands I owe more than one could ever hope to repay by thanks alone....What a good day this was, as they have been of late and shall continue to be in future. We are prepared to face the future as few percieve it to be....

Many here will look back on this adventure many years hence and be wistful of past challenges met and battles fought and won......This is just another time and chapter in the great history book of GOLD!.....YGM

balzac

(05/07/2002; 22:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75155)

As Butch Cassidy said" Who are those guys?"

RE: J Sinclair's essay.Can anyone tell me if Hung Fat & Dr. NO exsist in something

Other than Nom de PLume? Or we merely watching fiction?

Who are those Guys??

Balzac

Black Blade

(05/07/2002; 23:06:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75156)

New Coalition, Citing Natural Gas Reserve Report, Warns of Supply Crunch Due To Unwarranted Price Volatility

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/comtex/2002/05/07/pr/0000-1225-dc-coalition-supply
Snippit:

"We all must be very careful not to fall into a false sense of security; as a result of unwarranted price volatility, U.S. gas supplies are very much at risk," said Arthur Corbin, president of the Coalition for Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (EMIT) and president and general manager of the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia. "A careful reading of the AGA report reveals that the top 30 companies that hold half of U.S. natural gas reserves did not add enough reserves in 2001 to replace production, even though the average price they received for their gas was over $4.00 per thousand cubic feet, well above historical averages."

Private investment banker and energy industry analyst Matthew R. Simmons, Chairman and President of Simmons & Company International, cautioned that the AGA report "could create a very false sense that things are well in natural gas just as the country's daily supply is poised to drop by what could be a genuinely tragic surprise."

Simmons said, "Every American should now be aware that the exploration and production industry embarked on the greatest drilling boom for more gas supplies in U.S. history during 2000 and 2001, shattering the prior record of gas wells completed in 1981 by over 1,000 more wells -- yet daily gas supply stayed flat. The drilling boom peaked at the end of last summer. Drilling for gas has now dropped 45 percent, which is just starting to be felt in daily gas production. By the time the country experiences the full impact of this drilling collapse, daily supplies could drop by 10 percent or higher."

Black Blade: We will likely see an energy supply crunch late this year or early next year. Reserves are not being replenished. No economic recovery this year.

goldquest

(05/07/2002; 23:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75157)

Worth a re-read

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/howederivatives.htmlJPM should have heeded this commentary back then!

Goldfly

(05/07/2002; 23:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75158)

Golly, this was interesting...

http://www.nymex.com/rulebook/6.htm#09Rule 6.09. MAXIMUM PRICE VARIATIONS

The Board may provide, at any time, by Rule or resolution that there shall be no trading during any one business day or trading session day in any commodity for futures delivery in any specified month or months at prices more than a fixed limit above or below the settlement price for the preceding business day. At the discretion of the Board, any limitation provided in this Rule �6.09 may be changed or suspended or temporarily modified from time to time and without prior notice. Trading in options contracts shall not be subject to price fluctuation limitations.

Goldfly

(05/07/2002; 23:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75159)

Hmmmm.... This too.

http://www.nymex.com/markets/cont_all.cfm?CID=15&cont_name=specsThis part:

Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation
Futures: Initial price limit, based upon the preceding day's settlement price is $75 per ounce. Two minutes after either of the two most active months trades at the limit, trades in all months of futures and options will cease for a 15-minute period. Trading will also cease if either of the two active months is bid at the upper limit or offered at the lower limit for two minutes without trading.

Trading will not cease if the limit is reached during the final 20 minutes of a day's trading. If the limit is reached during the final half hour of trading, trading will resume no later than 10 minutes before the normal closing time.

When trading resumes after a cessation of trading, the price limits will be expanded by increments of 100%.

Options: No price limits.

Goldfly

(05/07/2002; 23:49:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75160)

But what about spot?

Anyway according to my calculations, a gold futures contract could close at not quite $5 million/ounce tomorrow.

Oooh. That's making my scalp tingly.

Waverider

(05/08/2002; 00:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75161)

Silver Lease Rates

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.htmlLittle discussion lately re: silver but it looks worthwhile to keep an eye on the lease rates which have edged up since Friday.

Spartacus

(05/08/2002; 00:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75162)

New bear leg underway

http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=5014By Charlie Minter

Signaling continued weakness, the market was unable to hold onto its early gains despite the biggest increase in quarterly productivity in 19 years and a widely expected no-decision from the Fed. Productivity numbers are notoriously unreliable to begin with, and the current improvement was helped significantly by the massive layoffs of the past two years. In addition the government is overly generous in the way it calculates quality improvements. For instance, a PC with ten times the speed, memory and drive of one made five years ago is considered to be ten times more productive. That helps explain why first quarter output, according to the productivity calculation, increased at an annual rate of 6.5% at a time when year-to-year revenues of the S&P 500 decreased about 6%. We can't help thinking that the difference between these two numbers needs some explaining.
----
The problem for this highly overvalued market is that a tightening is viewed with great pessimism, while a continuation of the present monetary policy is made possible only by more economic weakness that will also be disappointing. We believe that the market has nowhere to go but down, and it looks as if that is happening now.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 01:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75163)

Events Raise Nuclear Safety Questions

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020507/ap_on_re_us/reactor_worries_6
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Severe cracks found at one nuclear power reactor and the stunning discovery of a hole that nearly breached the six-inch steel dome of another facility are raising new questions about aging nuclear plants and whether they are being inspected closely enough. The hole that went through most of the heavy reactor cover of the Davis-Besse power plant in Ohio and the severity of cracks found about a year earlier at a reactor in South Carolina surprised federal safety regulators and the industry.

Only a thin noncorrosive stainless steel membrane kept the hole at the Ohio reactor from bursting open. And nuclear experts say if the cracks at the Oconee plant had been allowed to continue, the nozzle might have separated. In both cases, thousands of gallons of radioactive water would have escaped from the reactor, raising the risk of the core's radioactive fuel overheating and � in a worst-case scenario � possibly a meltdown and a release of radiation from the larger concrete containment building.

Black Blade: There are 68 other nuclear facilities of similar design.

Spartacus

(05/08/2002; 01:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75164)

Tax Refund Checks

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-000032345may07.story?coll=la-headlines-nation-manual
ST. LOUIS -- The budget deficit is huge. Tax collection has been unexpectedly skimpy. And the treasury is all but tapped out.

So the state of Missouri has stopped sending out income tax refunds. And there are no plans to put the checks in the mail any time soon.

State officials have told 415,500 taxpayers that their refund checks--worth a total of $167 million--are on indefinite hold because of an extreme cash flow crisis. "We really don't know how long it will be," budget director Brian Long said. The move announced late last week is extreme. Illinois has delayed refund payments a week or two because of a cash flow crunch. And Alabama has put off paying most corporate tax refunds until the economy rebounds. But several national experts on state finances said Missouri appears to be alone in cutting off personal income tax refunds.
-----
If the refund checks are delayed past Aug. 15, the state will owe taxpayers interest at the rate of 6% a year. But that's small consolation to the families who were counting on their money now, to pay off credit card bills or remodel a bathroom or cover a summer vacation.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 01:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75165)

Providian Cuts 2,600 Jobs, Stock Rises

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020507/earns_providian_2.htmlProvidian Stock Rises Almost 9 Percent After Announcement of Job Cuts

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Shares in Providian Financial Corp. gained nearly 9 percent Tuesday, a day after the company announced more job cuts. The credit card issuer expects to dump nearly 2,600 workers this year as a new management team continues to dig out from loan losses that nearly buried the company last year.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 01:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75166)

Textron Says Job Cuts To Reach 7,300 Amid Restructuring

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020507/200205071555000778_1.htmlSnippit:

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Textron Inc. (TXT) said it expects its job cuts will total 7,300, excluding the Automotive Trim unit, as a result of the company's restructuring.

Black Blade: Yep, more "Bones" shuffle off to the growing "Bone Pile" and plants shut down.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 02:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75167)

Rocky Mountain methane opens new US energy fight

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020507/energy_rockies_gas_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, May 7 (Reuters) - Environmentalists and the U.S. energy industry are pitching their tents over Rocky Mountain gas fields, each camp preparing for the next battle over where to secure the nation's energy supplies. Since the Senate in April extended a ban on drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), at the core of the Bush administration's energy policy, the focus has shifted to vast gas resources trapped in coal seams under the Rockies.

As conservationists and supporters of energy independence square off, two federal agencies have already thrown up roadblocks to tapping that gas -- much of it tucked away on federal land in some of the nation's most scenic terrain. "I think you can see the debate shifting now. And these recent decisions could be a major setback to future (energy) development in the Rockies," Charles Mankin, director of the Oklahoma Geological Survey, told Reuters. "If that happens it's going to be much more difficult to meet this country's growing energy needs," he said.

The Rockies' role in meeting U.S. energy demand is raised by the nation's growing use of natural gas, which industry analysts predict will fuel most of the country's new power plants and heat most of its new homes for the next decade. Geologists estimate about 346 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable gas lie under the surface of the Rocky Mountain states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. The Interior Department is expected to decide by November whether to make changes to its environmental impact report.

Black Blade: Of course by November it's too late to offset an energy crisis late this year. Environmentalists stopped ANWR, they will likely stop the Rocky Mtn petroleum projects, and they stated they will next move on to stop new leases offshore. We are likely facing an energy crisis of epic proportions or else get used to an emergency massive build up of coal-fired power plants and emergency issue of "carbon credits". It will look especially grim for California. Of course Sec. Gail Norton of the Dept. of Interior could just overide the EPA decision regardless of Sec. Christine Whitman (cat fight? - Hmmm...). "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 02:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75168)

S. Africa May Close Unsafe Mines After Deaths Rise

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=APNd3thUkUy4gQWZy
Snippit:

Johannesburg, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's mine safety regulator said it may close down unsafe mines after 91 workers died in the country's mines in the first quarter, an average of one a day, Business Report said, citing a study by the department of mineral and energy affairs

Black Blade: If they do shut down those mines, then that is less supply to market. However, mining is critical to the SA economy.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 03:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75169)

Market Indices Scream Higher, USD Higher, Petroleum Higher, ....Uh Oh - Gold Lower

http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
The market indices are rocketing higher on Cisco's "Home Run" earnings of 11 cents a share (Pro Forma of course). The net is listed as 10 cents, though that does not accout for a number of costs including employee options, etc. The DOW Futures are up over 110 pts., the NASDAQ Futures are up about 30 pts., and the S&P 500 Futures are up about 12. The CNBC anchors are calling it the "Cisco effect". Looks like blast off for the markets at the open if these numbers hold.

Another suicide bomber detonated in Israel this morning (the second one in 12 hours). This may have an effect on petroleum as NY Crude is up at $27.00/bbl and NG at $3.75 Mbtu. The USD is charging ahead while other major currencies are crumbling apart (the Euro is close to falling below 90 cents). Gold appears to be unable to hold up this morning and is lower about a dollar.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 03:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75170)

Productivity � All And Nothing

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=07052002-021719-9582r
Snippit:

In theory, high productivity growth is very good news. Firms are producing more per worker. Their labor costs are therefore kept in check, and they will be more profitable. And they can keep the prices of their goods flat, so that inflation need not rise. In recent years Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has often pointed to high productivity growth in the United States and expressed his confidence in future economic prospects because of it.

But more recently, Greenspan and others have started to get more skeptical. "The numbers look just too large to be credible," Greenspan said earlier this year. The question is whether productivity numbers can be relied on. In the short-term, problems of measurement seem to mean that the productivity numbers are not very helpful.

Robert Gordon, a professor at Northwestern University in Illinois who has made a special study of productivity in the United States, goes one step farther. He finds that the supposed trend increase in U.S. productivity growth is a mirage. In a study in 2000 he wrote the "entire trend acceleration" in U.S. productivity was confined to the computer durables and telecommunications sectors and that "there is no revival of productivity growth in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of durables."

Even if one takes the numbers at face value, they may not say very much. The U.S. government measures productivity by dividing output by hours worked. In the first quarter, U.S. companies cut jobs. The total number of hours worked fell at a rate of 1.9 percent. But companies' output increased by 6.5 percent. Divide the two and you have an impressive-looking surge in output per hour worked.

Black Blade: My thoughts exactly. The again, we already know that the BLS is a bogus organization that pumps out meaningless, bogus, and statistically massaged data. Add in unemployment, employees working longer hours and doing the work of more employees, and toss in a pinch of hedonic filtering for good measure. I take the BLS data with a grain of skeptical salt.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 03:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75171)

Revisionist View of the Great Depression

http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htm
Summary

Following John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by �contractionist tendencies� of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks� risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.

Using fundamental principles of accounting we shall prove our main thesis asserting that falling interest rates squeeze the profits of productive enterprise. Worse still, in the 1930's the squeeze was concealed by the accounting code which ill-advised politicians had relaxed at the start of World War I. As a result losses were reported as profits and phantom profits were paid out as dividends to shareholders. There was a hidden destruction of capital across the board. More precisely, capital was clandestinely siphoned off from the balance sheet of the productive sector to show up in the form of capital gains in the balance sheet of the financial sector. The collapse of production was not caused by the collapse of demand as asserted by Keynes. Rather, the collapse of demand was caused by the collapse of production, which could have been avoided by keeping the interest-rate structure stable, as it has always been under the gold standard, shutting out bond speculation. The economists� profession would do well to re-examine its prejudices and prepossessions about the gold standard. The urgency of this task is all the more pressing in view of the unfolding deflationary scenario. Once more, the interest-rate structure appears to be falling inexorably, driven by another tsunami of bull speculation in bonds in which the big American and Japanese banks are calling the shots. Far from being able to control the situation, central banks are helpless. Their financial resources are no match for those of the bond speculators.

The only way to avert another tragedy is to stabilize the interest-rate structure. This the United States government could accomplish overnight, by opening the Mint to gold.

Black Blade: Interesting article. A return to the "barbarous relic"?

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 04:45:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75172)

Trash Currencies Plummet Against USD

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD hammers the hell out of world currencies. It appears that domestic manufacturers better pray for tariffs on imports now. So far we have tariffs on steel, and soft wood lumber. Maybe autos are next.

Meanwhile the market indices are going ballistic - the DOW (+128), NASDAQ (+35), and S&P 500 (+15) are set to rocket higher at the open. "Cisco Effect" - Hmmm...

- Black Blade

nickel62

(05/08/2002; 05:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75173)

Black Blade, Maybe the AngloGold people have been whispering in the ears of the South African politicans?

Nopthing would make AngloGOld's attempted defence of an unfriendly takeover of a South African mine more credible then a rise in the price of gold, especially if Barrick is the acquirer. A shut down or a threatened shut down of any portion of South African gold mine production would certainly throw a scare into the gold trading desks of the hedged producers. This could be good news, especially in light of the rumours coming out of GATA that Gold Fields and/or AngloGold are being targeted by Barrick and their bankster buddies for a hostile takeover.

Jimbo

(05/08/2002; 06:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75174)

Fidelity on gold

Fidelity recently mailed to investors a booklet summarizing its "select portfolios." Niel Marotta, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio, commented on the outlook for gold as follows: "�if the equity markets improve meaningfully and interest rates begin to climb, investing in gold could appear less attractive and we might see mining companies increase their hedging activities, which would tend to keep a lid on any gold rallies. Inflation and the direction of the U.S. dollar also must be factored into the mix�right now, neither is supportive of higher gold prices." Marotta's thinking seems to run contrary to what I'm observing in the economy and the gold market. Nevertheless, it makes me wonder why the manager of a successful gold fund would make such contrarian statements? Would anyone care to comment?

nickel62

(05/08/2002; 06:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75175)

JIMBO Fidelity Gold Manager is talking the company book not his!

With $450 Billion plus in Equity and Bond mutual fund assets Fidelity is not stupid enough to allow a gold fund manager of a minor sector fund to start a stampede into his fund by talking straight. He would be reassigned the next day. It is not in the interest of Fidelity to attract money to a gold fund and kill the marketing line they are pumping out to millions of skittish mutual fund holders who are already concerned enough about the rational of keeping their over exposed IRAs and 401Ks tilted toward a collapsing stock and bond market. Been there done that.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 06:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75176)

Jimbo � Fidelity Select Funds

One thing to keep in mind about the Select Funds, they are managed by entry level analysts and usually stay on the job for about a year before they move on to manage another fund. These Select Funds are really run by the analyst pools who really make the share selections for final approval by the manager. If you get the Select Portfolio guide (semi-annual mailing) you will read about how long the manager has been on the job. You might think of Select Fund managers as being on the "Farm Team" before they are considered for advancement into the "Big Leagues" of the Fidelity family. As far a Gold Funds are concerned, Fidelity (FSAGX) is not that bad as they focus more on non-hedgers, but due to the 3% load, why not invest in a "no load" fund that relies on gains from non-hedgers (Toqueville maybe?) if that's your game plan? I have nominal (IRA) investments in Fidelity Select Electronics (FSELX), Fidelity Select Natural Gas (FSNGX), Energy Fidelity Select Energy Services (FSESX), and Fidelity Select Home Finance (FSVLX). Fidelity is also one of my brokerages. But I have other selections for my Gold investments (like physical and a smattering of non-hedger shares) and even a physical Gold IRA (I know that USAGOLD have a physical Gold IRA option available). Anyway, that's my take on it. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gold Standard

(05/08/2002; 06:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75177)

Another day in the Cabal's headquarters.....

http://japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=8&id=214675
The scene: A dark and cigar-smoke heavy boardroom in London, just off Threadneedle Street. Twelve cigar-chomping, pinstripe-suited, overweight "Captains of Industry" are seated in varying poses of despair around the mahogany boardroom table.

The time: Early Wednesday morning, 8th May, 2002.

The characters: Twelve members of what is commonly known as "The Cabal", bullion bankers, Reserve Bank representatives, and top intermediaries.

The issue of despair: The irrepressible price of gold.

Chairman: "Gentlemen, thank you for making the time to meet at extraordinary inconvenience. As you know, the price of gold has been almost a week over $310 US dollars, and despite selling and selling into the market, the price has established what I can only see as long-term support. I have called this emergency meeting to see whether any of you have any viable alternatives."

Faceless Cabal Member: "Mr Chairman, what about more Central Bank sales?"

Chairman: "NO! We've got the Swiss making Swiss Cheese out of their hoard, and they're selling far more than they should under that blasted Washington Accord. They've got a quota of only 1300 toinnes, you know. Their sales are going to dry up well before September 2004, and who else have we got to replace them?"

Another Faceless Cabal Member: "Of course! Good old Wim. He's always a value play, and the press are always waiting for his next pearls of wisdom. Let's get Wim to talk about Bundesbank sales again..."

Chairman: "NO! You IDIOT! We tried that two weeks ago under your advice, and look where it has now got us, you fool! The market ignored any threat of Bundesbank sales, and swept to a higher mark regardless. Plus Wim ended up with egg on his face, when those blighted Gold Bugs pointed out that any sales had to be after September 2004, he sank like a deflating balloon. No, there must be something else....."

12 Faceless Cabal Members: rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb.......

Chariman: "SILENCE YOU FOOLS - I've got it!!! Let's do the old Spanish Galleon shipwreck trick - that's alwys good for peeling a dollar or more off the spot price."

Faceless Cabal Member: "Didn't we do that a couple of months ago with that Korean shipwreck?"

Chairman: "Yes, and didn't that work a treat!"

Faceless Cabal Member: "But, that was only a couple of months ago - isn't it too soon?"

Chairman: "NO! No-one will remember that, except for those blasted Gold Bugs - but no-one listens to them anyway! A perfect scheme!!!"

Faceless Cabal Members: (muttered sounds of general agreement....)

Boilermaker

(05/08/2002; 06:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75178)

Trebuchet Seige

http://trebuchet.com/One way to get some press attention would be to drag a trebuchet to the front entrance of the FED and the Treasury with great fanfare, draped with GATA's army colors and deliver an ultimatum to Greenspan and O'Neil that they cease their captivity of the barbarous metal or else a seige will be loosed to tear down their corrupt castles.
See site above for obtaining weapons.

Henri

(05/08/2002; 06:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75179)

Blak Blade msg #75163

The Oconee (SC)and Davis Besse (OH)Reactors are the same design by Babcock & Wilcox. While there are a number of issues surrounding reactor head nozzle integrity in pressurized water reactors PWR), the call for detailed inspections was mostly fulfilled at the time the DB "hole" was discovered. Perhaps the DB folks were dragging their feet a bit knowing that they would not pass the mandated inspections? The Oconee site has 3 identical B&W reactors and it appears that only one had issues significant enough to be specifically noted. Other sites which have B&W reactors that I know of are Three Mile Island, PA (2 nay 1 now), Crystal River, FL (1)...there may be others. Most other pressurized water reactors are of a different design and were designed by Westinghouse or Combustion Engineering. A sizable portion of US reactors are of the boiling water reactor (BWR) type designed by General Electric.

The older PWR plants had been undergoing extensive testing to qualify their pressure boundaries for recertification as they were approaching their operational design lifetime. Due to "overengineering" on the safety side many were found not only suitable for life extension but were also given permission to upgrade their power output. Several have already ordered new reactor heads rather than deal with the minor issues identified during the inspection mandate as they could forsee long downtimes and the economics favored head replacement.

I personally don't see this causing a lot of disruption of nuclear generating capacity in the future, nor do I see it as a death knell for nuclear power in general. On the contrary, I see it as a tribute to oversight provided by industry self regulation and the Nuclear insurers that brought these problems out into the daylight. Also the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for reacting to this news in a proactive way that facilitates evolution of the industry.

Much smaller and safer (town scale) reactors on street corners would seem to be the next sane direction given the aging transmission infrastructure and the tendancy for large power block manipulation by companies like Enron.

nickel62

(05/08/2002; 06:55:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75180)

Tough talker Spitzer is going to maybe ask Merrill Lynch to go to bed without supper for ripping Merrill Lynch clients off for billions!!!!

Wall Street loudly protests that punishment is too harsh. Merrill lawyers argue that maybe the punishment should simply be going to bed without dessert. Spitzer plans new political campaign as "Defender of Public Interest" Mattel and MGM plan new Spitzer action figure and sequel/follow on to Spiderman movie with "Attorney General Man". Blows smoke up publics butt while secretly blackmailing Wall Street for campaing contributions to fund future politcal campaign. $50,000,000 fine stated to be on par with $100,000,000 fine that Credit Swiss First Boston payed for rigging IPO market...Other Wall Street firms think Credit Swiss and Merrill shouldn't have gotten caught...Other politicans wish they had thougth of it. Game continues..Sheeple are now sleeping on public park benches and using gas station bathrooms as needed and that is the only part of this settlement they will ever see. Spitzer thinks that this subsidy of the on going care of former Merrill investors is warranted in light of the obvious abuse by some rogue analysts that happened to be working for Merrill Lynch when they sent emails later to prove embarassing to Merrill and very lucrative to self serving pubic frauds.

nickel62

(05/08/2002; 06:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75181)

Merrill settlement looms....Spitzer declares canidacy for Govenor!

05/08 07:38
Merrill Drawing Near Accord to Settle Spitzer Probe (Update2)
By Stephen Cohen

New York, May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. is close to an agreement to settle charges by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer that the biggest securities firm by capital misled investors with biased stock research.

The firm hopes to reach an agreement soon to settle Spitzer's claims. Negotiations so far have been ``productive,'' said Merrill spokesman Tim Cobb and a statement from Spitzer's office. Merrill has offered to pay about $50 million, though a final figure is still being discussed, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Spitzer yesterday postponed a court appearance on the matter until May 16.

An agreement that separates research and investment banking within the firm could keep the attorney general from seeking civil or criminal charges against the firm, the paper said. Merrill's shares have fallen 24 percent, losing about $11 billion in market value, in the month since Spitzer released e-mails from Merrill analysts that indicated its research was influenced by investment banking relationships.

``This shouldn't be too big of a financial burden, especially because the failure to reach settlement involves much higher risks,'' said Yoshiaki Asada, who manages 50 billion yen in U.S. equities at Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co. ``Investors would even find the news positive.''

Merrill shares climbed $2, or 4.9 percent, to $42.80 on Instinet.

A $100 million settlement would be the same as what Credit Suisse First Boston agreed to pay earlier this year to settle regulatory charges that it allotted sought-after shares of initial public offering in exchange for investor kickbacks in the form of higher commissions.

Criticism

Spitzer wants Merrill's analysts to be paid from a pool of money separate from that generated from investment banking fees. He also wants to stop analysts from participating in pitches to win business, and wants Merrill to publicly recognize that it misled investors and pay a fine.

Merrill doesn't want to agree to new research policies unless its Wall Street rivals also adopt such changes. Spitzer's investigation, which began with Merrill, has widened to include other securities firms. Other regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Association of Securities Dealers and the New York Stock Exchange, have joined the investigation.

Spitzer had criticized Merrill's research, releasing an October 2000 e-mail about Internet Capital Group Inc. in which analyst Henry Blodget said there was ``nothing to turn this around'' and ``nothing positive to say.'' At the time, though, Merrill rated Internet Capital ``accumulate,'' its second-highest rating. Merrill has said the e-mails were taken out of context.

``Wall Street has had a basic conflict of interest for some time,'' said Howard Ward, who manages the $2.95 billion Gabelli Growth Fund and owns shares of Merrill and other securities firms. ``The most likely case is a settlement with maybe a fine and a change of practices.''

Merrill is a passive, minority investor in Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.

Canuck Gold

(05/08/2002; 07:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75182)

Commentary by Bill Murphy on derivative market

By Bill Murphy
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
May 7, 2002

This morning I received a phone call from the best of
sources in South Africa. The source has a friend who
spent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chase
senior bankers. The friend was told by the Morgan
people that they have "lost control of the gold market
and that the gold derivative department was a mess."
The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P.
Morgan Chase -- the bank itself -- might not make it
through the year. They suggested that my source buy
$330 February gold calls.

Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my source
received the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of the Gold Cartel bullion
banks:

* The gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase
is being investigated.

* The man who ran the department has been fired.

* This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was
called "still a rumor" by the program host.

* It appears the "conspiracy guys" were right all along.

A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that the
man who ran Morgan's gold derivative department had
indeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?

Subsequently, another outstanding source informs me
he hears that Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts a couple of years ago when Reg Howe revealed Chase's gold derivative position as reported to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.Mehta called in his accountants and others to find out how that disclosure happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell, and I presented that document to the speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. The following day I delivered it to every member of the House and Senate banking committees.

Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we had
to say.

This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and Jim
Sinclair have alerted Caf� members to:

* The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.

* A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.

* Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.

* The price of gold is going to explode.

* There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.

The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets, and the Fed must all be in a state of sheer panic over gold. There is a feeling by some in the GATA camp that they will orchestrate a massive bailout -- like ask the International Monetary Fund tosell its gold. Anything is possible, but to do anything now might be folly and tip their hand that GATA was right all along. Why should anyone care if gold goes to $400 or $500, much less $350? All that a price rise would do is be a boon for theeconomies of sub-Saharan Africa.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's credibility is very good in Africa. If The Gold Cartel comes up with some trumped-up reason to sell gold, I shall try and see some of the leaders of the gold-producing countries and point out what has been done to them and why.

CG: Following yesterday's events in Israel, the US dollar is up and gold is sharply down. And TPTB would have us believe that the markets are not manipulated. I take solace from the fact that they though Canute could stem the tides. The reality is that they cannot control nature, but they can maybe slow it down a little.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 07:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75183)

Henri � Nuclear Reactors

I agree. The main point about the current reactor problems was the additional shutdown time for inspections and repairs. It is unlikely that the shutdowns will be much of a problem overall, but will add to the demand for other energy supply in the interim. However, I think that the next wave of the Nuclear power industry will likely involve "Pebble Bed Reactors" (PBR). PBR's are purported to be safer and are smaller so they can be located for use closer to the end user. At some point Nuclear power will have to take on a more prominent role as "cheap" hydrocarbons are depleted and energy demand grows. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Hipplebeck

(05/08/2002; 07:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75184)

can a country retire?

After talking to my wife about trade deficits and current account balances etc., she asked a good question.
If things keep up and Japan keeps growing their savings in US treasuries, will they ever reach a point where they will be able to retire on the interest income and never have to touch the principle? Funny huh?

Henri

(05/08/2002; 07:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75185)

Black Blade

Yes, the PBR's do look promising for both small and large scale applications. I believe Excelon is in the process of designing and building a prototype in South Africa.

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(05/08/2002; 07:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75186)

Taking a break. . . .NEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

Chris Powell

(05/08/2002; 08:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75187)

Barrick is covering more of its shorts

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1100Barrick increases the covering of its short position
in gold:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1100

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

RobotGuy

(05/08/2002; 09:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75188)

Volatile Everything!! Sweet!!

YGM

(05/08/2002; 09:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75189)

Missouri must use A Anderson Accounting Firm....

Shades of the future for Gov't....."They're ALL Broke"! We just need honest accounting to see it!May 7, 2002

THE NATION
Missouri Stops Payments of Tax Refund Checks
Budget: The state cites a cash flow crisis in taking the extreme measure. More than 400,000 have been told that they won't get the money owed them any time soon.

By STEPHANIE SIMON, TIMES STAFF WRITER

ST. LOUIS -- The budget deficit is huge. Tax collection has been unexpectedly skimpy. And the treasury is all but tapped out.

So the state of Missouri has stopped sending out income tax refunds. And there are no plans to put the checks in the mail any time soon.

State officials have told 415,500 taxpayers that their refund checks--worth a total of $167 million--are on indefinite hold because of an extreme cash flow crisis. "We really don't know how long it will be," budget director Brian Long said. The move announced late last week is extreme. Illinois has delayed refund payments a week or two because of a cash flow crunch. And Alabama has put off paying most corporate tax refunds until the economy rebounds. But several national experts on state finances said Missouri appears to be alone in cutting off personal income tax refunds.

Or at least it's the only state to have announced such an unpopular policy.

"I have to think that the same discussion about at what point or when [the treasury] can pay tax refunds is going on in several other states right now ... because their circumstances are similar to those in Missouri," said Harley Duncan, who directs the Federation of Tax Administrators.

Or, as budget analyst Arturo Perez put it: "Opening the [tax return] mail can be slowed way down. That's the crude method of delaying refunds."

Several States Face Similar Fiscal Crunches

Perez, a senior specialist with the National Conference of State Legislatures, plans to start surveying budget directors today to find out just how bad the April tax season has been--and how refunds are being handled. California refunds are going out on schedule; taxpayers who filed in mid-April should receive checks within six weeks, according to the Franchise Tax Board.

Evidence collected informally so far shows states across the nation reporting an anemic tax collection season, at best.

The reasons are obvious: With the economy in recession, many people worked fewer hours or at lower-paying jobs last year, so they owed the state less income tax. Even more significant, the drooping stock market ensured that few investors had capital gains to report--or pay taxes on.

Budget directors anticipated such a downtick, of course, especially after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks slammed an already weak economy.

But in many states the gloomy forecasts turned out to be not gloomy enough.

Missouri, for instance, predicted income tax collection in April would run about $525 million, down 13% from the previous year. "Frankly," Long said, "I thought we were being pessimistic enough." He was wrong: The state took in just $420 million in April.

Even in her small private practice, accountant Michelle Moon could see the plunge. Client after client was getting unexpectedly large refunds. Those who owed the state owed much less than in years past.

"You could see the writing on the wall," said Moon, who works in St. Charles, Mo. "You could tell the state was going to have to make some drastic cuts because the money was not going to be there."

'You Can't Spend What You Don't Take In'

Indeed, despite a painful round of cuts last winter, Missouri is facing a deficit of up to $250 million for the fiscal year ending June 30.

Lawmakers are now debating how to plug that hole. If they can reach consensus, the state might have enough cash on hand to resume refund payments next month. That's a big if, however, as the chief proposal--to tap a rainy-day fund--has drawn ferocious opposition from conservatives. House Republicans have already voted it down once.

Which leaves budget director Long in a tight spot.

"You can't spend what you don't take in," he said, sighing.

If the refund checks are delayed past Aug. 15, the state will owe taxpayers interest at the rate of 6% a year. But that's small consolation to the families who were counting on their money now, to pay off credit card bills or remodel a bathroom or cover a summer vacation.

The Department of Revenue estimates that 26% of those taxpayers who are owed refunds are caught in the limbo.

Among them is Tony Salvatore, an airline pilot from the St. Louis suburbs who was expecting a $979 refund.

"I think this is terrible," he said.

He's particularly steamed that lawmakers are considering a $644-million plan to build a new baseball stadium for the St. Louis Cardinals and refurbish stadiums in Kansas City when they cannot even return him the $979 he overpaid in state taxes last year.

"I'm not an accountant," Salvatore said, "but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this state is going to get into serious trouble if we keep going like this."

RobotGuy

(05/08/2002; 09:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75190)

YGM - - - - Man!! There's going to be 400,000 very disappointed individuals!

Solomon Weaver

(05/08/2002; 10:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75191)

Black Blade: Here's a little face time for the "other energy"

http://www.frtechbiz.com/displayarticledetail.asp?Art_ID=570625/3/2002 5:51:00 PM
By Rod Franklin
Three Colorado State University researchers have invented a machine they say increases the speed of photovoltaic (PV) solar cell manufacturing by a factor of 10, compared with other systems.

Mechanical engineers W.S. Sam-path, Kurt Barth and Robert Enzenroth have tested a prototype that spits out one 3-inch-square thin-film PV cell every two minutes � and does it cheaply.

Their next goal is to produce a version of the machine that can make 1-foot-square cells. Eventually, they want to commercialize the hardware.

"We do want to see this thing happen," Sampath said. "We want to see (PV) modules at Home Depot and Builder's Square (priced) as low as they can be."

But they face tough odds, according to the locally based manager of a national thin film partnership program.

Sampath's research group at the CSU Materials Engineering Laboratory linked together seven PV manufacturing steps into one in-line process. Its machine makes solar cells by depositing thin layers of highly conductive cadmium sulfide and cadmium telluride, two of the most advanced materials used in modern thin film production, onto glass.

By comparison, Barth said, one major manufacturer employs five or six discreet wet chemistry steps as part of its process. And though existing manufacturers have been able to link together some or all of the seven steps, the consolidation doesn't occur in one machine, he added.

The group has achieved a respectable sunlight-to-electric-current conversion efficiency of 12.5 percent in its cells, and Sampath claimed they boast among the toughest resistance to degradation of any thin film PV.

Even so, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) expert who maintains regular contact with domestic and foreign PV producers doesn't rate CSU's process optimization at the top of his list.

"They're not the best in the world, but they're topnotch devices," said NREL's Ken Zweibel. "I think they are an adequate representative of a technology which has good potential."

Zweibel manages the Thin Film Partnership Program for NREL, which funded a portion of the CSU research. He said existing PV manufacturers are way ahead of the university in terms of financial backing and production infrastructure.

"Competing with them is going to be difficult," Zweibel said. "You're going to have to have substantial backing."

Big players such as BP Solar and First Solar are pumping millions into high-throughput assembly methods. First Solar has a plant near Toledo, Ohio, that is being scaled up to produce 100 megawatts of thin film PV modules each year � about half the world's 1999 output.
"They have a similar process, actually," Zweibel said. "If anything, it's faster than the one at CSU."

A healthy global demand already exists for PV cells in third-world countries where off-grid power is nonexistent or substandard. Village electrification using PV modules (containing many cells) and arrays of modules is a promising market.

Yet current production volumes don't begin to sate the power appetites of the estimated 2 billion people around the world who get by without electricity. According to Photovoltaic News, Japan led in global manufacturing last year with 128.6 megawatts of PV. The United States was second with 75. Europe followed with about 61.
But producing larger volumes of PV cells and modules is just one missing link in the economic equation for PV, which has struggled for years to improve its standing vis-�-vis wind generation and cheap hydrocarbon energy sources, such as natural gas.

Economies of scale are just as important as volume, especially in the domestic market, Sampath said. Current manufacturing costs stand at $4 to $5 per watt.

"That's about what the selling price is, so the industry is not very profitable at all," he said. "The thought is, if you can get it on your roof for under $3 a watt, the market is semi-infinite."

For that to happen, manufacturers would need to shave production costs to $1 or $1.50 per watt.

Significant progress has been made in PV economics. The cost of electricity from solar cells has dropped from more than $1 per kilowatt-hour in 1980 to a current price of about 20 cents.

Patents associated with the CSU invention have been signed over to the three engineers, who have begun to explore technology transfer options through an advisory committee.

"We have made contacts with some of the more noted names in the field," Barth said.

YGM

(05/08/2002; 10:22:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75192)

SAFE HAVEN.....Revisionist View of The Great Depression.....

http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htmEXCERPT:

Revisionist View of the Great Depression

Summary
Following John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by �contractionist tendencies� of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks� risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.

Using fundamental principles of accounting we shall prove our main thesis asserting that falling interest rates squeeze the profits of productive enterprise. Worse still, in the 1930's the squeeze was concealed by the accounting code which ill-advised politicians had relaxed at the start of World War I. As a result losses were reported as profits and phantom profits were paid out as dividends to shareholders. There was a hidden destruction of capital across the board. More precisely, capital was clandestinely siphoned off from the balance sheet of the productive sector to show up in the form of capital gains in the balance sheet of the financial sector. The collapse of production was not caused by the collapse of demand as asserted by Keynes. Rather, the collapse of demand was caused by the collapse of production, which could have been avoided by keeping the interest-rate structure stable, as it has always been under the gold standard, shutting out bond speculation. The economists� profession would do well to re-examine its prejudices and prepossessions about the gold standard. The urgency of this task is all the more pressing in view of the unfolding deflationary scenario. Once more, the interest-rate structure appears to be falling inexorably, driven by another tsunami of bull speculation in bonds in which the big American and Japanese banks are calling the shots. Far from being able to control the situation, central banks are helpless. Their financial resources are no match for those of the bond speculators.

The only way to avert another tragedy is to stabilize the interest-rate structure. This the United States government could accomplish overnight, by opening the Mint to gold.

*Cont'd @ Link..........

YGM

(05/08/2002; 10:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75193)

BARRICK........BY HALF TO 3 M oz...Give us a break, There's 18 M oz showing on the books!

BOYCOTT....ABX< PDG< JPMBarrick trims hedges again to 'take greater advantage of rising gold prices?

Canadian Press

Wednesday, May 08, 2002

TORONTO (CP) - Barrick Gold Corp. is further scaling back its forward selling, announcing Wednesday it is "simplifying" its so-called premium gold sales program.

The company said it will not renew its gold call and variable price sales contracts, a move which is expected to reduce these hedging positions by half, to three million ounces by year-end. "A simple spot deferred program makes more sense in today's environment," stated Jamie Sokalsky, chief financial officer of Canada's largest gold company.

"The overall program will be simpler, smaller and better positioned to take greater advantage of rising gold prices. At the same time, it will continue to generate significant additional revenues and provide secure and predictable cash flows."

These changes are in addition to Barrick's previously announced decision to sell half of its output at the spot price for the first time in 14 years. In recent years, all of its production was delivered against the hedging program at prices far in excess of the spot market bullion price.

� Copyright 2002 The Canadian Press

***Smoke and Mirrors, fancy accounting and pure BS from Barrick will not fool many......Bah!

darkhorse

(05/08/2002; 10:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75194)

OK, what'd I miss?

1) I've lost several more marbles than I'd been told in the past
2) I missed some extraordinarily good news today
3) The PPT work is now being added into quarterly production numbers and they're working hard to make sure it's up again this quarter

These are the only reasons I can see the DOW +280, SP500 up almost 35 and the NASDAQ up almost 100. What'd I miss?

YGM

(05/08/2002; 10:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75195)

End Result of Gold Confiscation.......

From Safe Haven article.....Excerpt:

Without the gold ban the recession that started with the 1929 stock market crash would have been over by 1932. With the gold ban, the recession was turned into the greatest depression of all times. The man who was celebrated as savior ridding the nation of the curse of depression was in fact the one who had brought about the disaster in the first place. He pulled the gold trigger releasing the murderous forces of bond speculation to prey upon the productive sector. It heralded the continuing fall of the rate of interest. Bond speculators, first and foremost the banks among them, were ready to move in for the killing. The vultures picked the bones of productive enterprise clean. All this was done under the veil of anonymity. Nobody could have guessed that the Great Depression was a happy time for some. Well, for the bankers it was time for popping corks. Not only was their skin saved, but they became so strong financially that they could thereafter dictate government policy.

**Well I say the latest Gold Manipulation Scam by Bankers and their minions might well result in the demise and restructuring of the entire Fed Res system before the smoke clears away....Greed "IS" it's own executioner!!!....YGM.

Cavan Man

(05/08/2002; 11:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75196)

JPM Rumor

From LeMetJPM closing down gold derivative ops? Please confiem independently as I have heard and read so many "blockbuster" stories like this over the last three years I am a bit jaundiced.

Graefin

(05/08/2002; 11:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75197)

Missouri Tax...

Schiesse!!! And I hope I'm not one of those 400,000 Missouri tax payers who won't see their money because I haven't received my refund yet! Schiesse!
- Arme Gr�fin

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 11:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75198)

The War may be starting in earnest

Keep the big picture in mind.

We've been at war since 911. After the opening salvo, IMO the first front has been and still is financial, and the intensity is increasing.

Nobody will take the US on head-to-head militarily without a second front. Our financial underpinnings are our Achilles Heal.

It is my opinion right now that the Gold Cartel is being hammered into submission with the goal of taking down the financial system thru a derivitives/banking implosion. The PTB is throwing everything they have at the markets today trying to drive gold down (and not being too successful) and the SM's up (more successful, but upside gaps tend to be filled and the bulk is short covering right now).

Our opponents are buying gold by the ton and selling the SM's and the PTB is obliging out of what may be sheer desperation. We're at least one move behind on the war chessboard. If someone can buy gold and sell US assets to the benefit of their goal of taking us down, IT'S A WIN - WIN SENARIO. Think About It! Can you think of a better way to get your assets out of the US and into gold than what appears to be happening right now???

Actual war? Our opponents just keep Israel twisting in the wind. Look at the timing of the latest two suicide attacks.
We're being forced into a confrontation along with Israel and we don't have the luxury of another terrorist attack as justification. A few weeks back the administration said an attack on Iraq was not in the near term offing. It was figured that we would not fight in the heat of the summer. Rumors have it now that MASH units are being called up. That says 60 days or so - in the dead of summer??? Not our choice, but if it's going to happen, our opponent(s) want the best advantage they can get.

We weren't all that popular in the world going after Bin Laden (the way we did it), less popular if we go into Iraq, but one whole heck of a lot less popular if we get drug into Israel's agenda, and it sure is starting to appear that we will. Sharon is enraged, and will probably be forced to do something major.

The US is being forced from a somewhat justifiable crusade on the axis of terror, to an unpopular US/Israel coalition against the Palestines and/or Islam. Gee, is this happening by accident????

When the bullets and bombs start flying in earnest, expect the terrorists to shift to the US in a big way. Use your own imagination to figure out what it will do to the "recovery" and gold. A physical war in the ME, terrorist at home, and a dollar/fiat financial war in the backround and running hard for the forefront.

I personally hope I'm wrong, but we're not playing this too smart (we're not in control). We appear to be trying to run a bluff against a straight with a pair of jokers in our hand and nothing up our sleeve. I for one am not underestimating our opponents.

Stick the course. Buy and hold PM's. Next four to six months may make 1980 look like a small blip on the chart.

Pizz

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/08/2002; 12:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75199)

buy the RUMOR!

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=$COMPX&read=74607a great day to buy more gold. JPM bank crisis link above

Mr Gresham

(05/08/2002; 12:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75200)

Market surge

http://mrci.com/djindus.aspAnd look at the ones booming today -- all of the greatest 52-week losers in the Dow -- financials & techs (MSFT, IBM) -- a little too coincidental? This is to stem a rout and give a last lifeboat to certain parties? How many more bullets in PPT's revolver? "Now you're probably asking yourself -- did he fire five rounds, or six..."

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 12:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75201)

Mr. Gresham

Aren't there a couple different types of dead-cat bounces?

Normal, and then the ones where you have to scrape the road-kill up with a flat-nosed shovel and throw it in the air?? (kind of like this one??)

Pizz

RobotGuy

(05/08/2002; 12:46:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75202)

Golden Bear (5/3/02; 06:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74820)

I never did enquire as to why the S&P had to return to '1100 to 1110' value before 'the next onslaught.' I have been thinking about it, but I am not sure I know why. Could you please elaborate on why the S&P must return to this level before residing? I'll tell you one thing I know for sure, is that this market has the appearance of going anywhere today, and I'm sure that is the intended effect. Didn't we just see a 2% drop recently in the DOW? Today she's up a little, and it looks like the cheerleaders might get laryngitis if they don't calm down :)
What a wonderfully volatile market it has been, the entertainment is extremely gratifying. It's similar to fishing, when you feel a little tug on the line, and you know there's activity down there. You don't set the hook right away, but you wait until the next tug. As soon as the next tug happens, you set the hook, and then relax the line just in case you missed you don't want to frustrate the fish from trying again. That moment of suspense while you let the line sit slack wondering if it's there or not is the entertainment I speak of.
We're sitting on a slack line with a trophy catch preparing for battle!
The confidence that brings us our daily ripples in the pool of endless fiat is about to be swallowed in a whirlpool.
I hope at least the smart ones know to get out very soon, lemmings will suffer direly for their lack of willingness to investigate the true meaning of their investments.
We will suffer the recession that we have not suffered, it's just been put off for awhile.

Gold may sink, but it always shines!

Cheers!!

RobotGuy.

Jon

(05/08/2002; 12:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75203)

Mahendra Sharma Predicted Nasdaq Rise

On April 29, predicted 30% increase in Nasdaq within 30 days! Up over 100 so far today. Going up another 500 this month? Wonder if he's member of PPT team.

YGM

(05/08/2002; 12:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75204)

US BANKING NEWS SITE......

http://breakingnews.datasegment.com/finance/us_banking/Good place for a daily visit......

Gandalf the White

(05/08/2002; 13:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75205)

BIG DOWNFLAGS on the DOW and Duck !! & SPOT buried in PAPER

WHAT a show the PPT is having today !
Not to worry, SPOT is eating this PAPER BLIZZARD !
BUY the REAL physical while the price is cheap.
<;-)

Boilermaker

(05/08/2002; 13:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75206)

Potlatch Folds Plant

Potlatch to close mill, exit a business next week

SPOKANE, Wash., May 8 (Reuters) - Wood products company Potlatch Corp. (NYSE:PCH - news) on Wednesday said it will close a Minnesota mill and exit the coated printing papers business, as previously announced, at the beginning of next week.

Spokane, Washington-based Potlatch said 616 employees will lose their jobs as a result of the mill closing in Brainerd, Minnesota. The closing will take place on Monday but parts of the mill will operate until May 17.

It will also exit the coated printing papers business that day. Potlatch had said in March that it would sell its coated-papers facilities in Cloquet, Minnesota, to South Africa's Sappi Ltd. (SAPJ.J) for $480 million.

The company also said at that time that it would close its remaining coated printing papers mill in Brainerd

Boilermaker comment:
The "strong recovery" is derailed for 616 more unfortunate ones off to the boneyard.

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 14:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75207)

Money's moving out of the US no matter how they spin it

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020508&ID=1623147Wasn't there supposed to be the first half of a treasury auction today. Bond market seems to be rather down while all interest is focused on SM.....hmmm. Based upon realitive size of the markets, I feel US financial assets have taken a rather large negative hit, even with the SM rally. Doesn't appear that it was a full house at the treasry auction. Oh, well, probably just means we'll (have to???)lower prices a bit for tomorrow. Nothing like a fire sale to attract customers. I'm just positive as heck the bond market's drop was due to such a turn of events in the SM as a penny or two in Cisco's earnings - yea right.

Another "bullish" news item I heard today was that the war in Afganistan is winding down sooner than expected. Didn't bother to say where the troops were going . . . .hmmmm again.

Guess it's all just in the way you look at it . . . or spin it!

Pizz

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 14:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75208)

Correction

sorry, the 2nd half treasury auction was today. Still doesn't change my basic premise - money is still moving out of US financial assets (net).

sector

(05/08/2002; 14:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75209)

Get Ready for Friday's Option Expiry...

...That Means a Fat Buying Opportunity...Prehaps the Last Best Chance to Get on the TrainWith seemingly every producer announcing hedge closures, who exactly is left to sell forward? Not many I'd say. So Friday's end-of-day COMEX expiry presents a neat opportunity.

If I were the cabal, with all my dirty JPM laundry waving in the breeze [Chief Derivatives manager Dinsa Mehta canned and $40Billion in gold derivatives being closed], I would be one mad puppy and probably lash out in sheer frustration. Something like we saw today in the markets. The DOW, NASDAQ and Gold must have cost the Fed dearly indeed! What a tantrum!

So...the cabal likely floats into Friday and punchs pog down to maybe $300, maybe $305 in the early Friday PM....THAT'S when to move!

All this derivative closure has to move the COMEX gold price ...unless of course the FED has pushed their JPM gold losses onto some offshore entity who will just default and not deliver their borrowed gold.

What about their counter parties? We're the government�Sue us if you can!

On second thought�who ever reads the Cayman Islands Gazette anyway?

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 14:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75211)

JPM

A trader interviewed on WebFn said JPM was in the S&P futures market HEAVY today on the buy side.

Workin' for the PPT and switching gears from shorting gold to pumping the SM??? Or rear-end covering for both due to up coming losses??

Free markets my _____. this isn't even humorous anymore.

My objectivity attributes are being severly tested. (more so than usual)

Boilermaker

(05/08/2002; 14:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75212)

ABX Press Release

http://www.barrick.com/pdfwindow.asp?src=http://www.barrick.com/word/pressreleases/press5_8_2002_a8baba.pdfWhen reading Barrick's press release the follwing caught my eye;

"Secondly, the company will no longer invest a portion of its
spot-deferred contracts in corporate bond funds, and will
instead leave all proceeds invested with its average AA-rated
bank counterparties. "

I'm not sure why they're doing this but it sounds a little risky to put your money with the same people who have the other side of your contracts. Can anyone help me with this?

White Rose

(05/08/2002; 14:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75213)

Barrick's investments

Sometimes things are confusing because people are just plain embarrassed. Barrick's lost some money (not a huge amount, but enough to be an irritation) on Enron bonds.

Now, they do not want to say ... "Gee, with 20/20 hindsight, those Enron bonds were not our shining moment".

So they say "we are no longer investing in corporate bonds anymore". I suspect that the reason they are using their counterparties is because they are forced into it by other measures.

You already know you do not want to invest in this piece of junk. They sell forward their gold and invest in Enron bonds. What else are they doing that they are not admitting to?

YGM

(05/08/2002; 15:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75215)

Gandalf the White (5/8/02; 13:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75205)

Spot Buried in Paper..........is that the same paper we use to housetrain Spot???

Boilermaker

(05/08/2002; 15:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75216)

@ White Rose

Thanks for your take on Barrick's investments. I guess I was looking for something a bit more spicy like incest with ones banker. Oh well, I'm sure they're in love.

YGM

(05/08/2002; 15:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75217)

GATA EMAIL..............

http://www.gata.org3p Wednesday, May 8, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Here are a couple of today's dispatches of special
interest.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

To Members of www.LeMetropoleCafe.com:

Two sources in various parts of the world informed me
today that J.P. Morgan Chase is closing down its gold
derivative operations. It appears that GATA has run
them out of town. I will have more on this in my "Midas"
commentary tonight at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com.

-- Bill Murphy

* * *

Barrick comments on Gold Fields speculation

TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. , which
has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold
producer through a series of acquisitions over the past
20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it
was poised to swell further by taking over a South African
producer.

"The rumors about South Africa are just that. While we
assess opportunities and we are familiar with
opportunities, they are just rumors," Randall Oliphant,
president of Toronto-based Barrick told shareholders
at the company's annual meeting.

"Because Barrick has been so acquisitive, we're
always associated with taking advantage of each of
the opportunities. Although we're proud to be dynamic,
I don't think that we can jump that fast between days
from one opportunity to another."

Earlier this week a prominent mining Internet site
reported that Barrick and AngloGold Ltd., the
third-largest gold company, would team up to buy
Gold Fields Ltd., the fourth-largest producer.

"These rumors are creative, but it's just somebody
creating this stuff at home in their basement," Oliphant
told reporters after the meeting.

Gold Fields has been a favorite of takeover rumors
since its failed merger with Franco-Nevada Mining
Corp. Ltd. almost two years ago. Franco-Nevada has
subsequently merged with Newmont Mining Corp.
and Normandy Mining.

Over the past two decades, Barrick has grown from a
small company with one mine to become an industry
leader with annual production of about 6 million
ounces of gold.

Its acquisitions include the 1999 purchase of Sutton
Resources, giving it the Bulyanhulu property in
Tanzania, and the takeover of Homestake Mining
last year, which helped Barrick develop a foothold in
Australia.

-END-

YGM

(05/08/2002; 15:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75218)

As We Near The Abyss.........................

Yahoo News...Treasury Chief Warns on US Default
Wed May 8,11:17 AM ET
By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Congress needs to extend the government's authority to borrow or risk an unprecedented default on the national debt, something that would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill warned Wednesday.

O'Neill made his latest pitch for swift congressional action on raising the debt ceiling in a speech to Republicans gathered at the Capitol Hill Club.

He has repeatedly asked Congress to boost the debt ceiling by $750 billion, but the request has become stuck in a political fight over the budget. The limit now stands at $5.95 trillion.

Treasury last week said it can shift some funds to avoid hitting the debt ceiling in mid-May. But those maneuvers won't be useful in late June, raising the prospect of a default on payments to bondholders.

"If we run into the ceiling that's really bad," O'Neill said in remarks to the Republican Main Street Partnership. "Because world capital markets will say they knew they needed to do it and they've know for six months that they needed to do it and they didn't do it and that casts a shadow on the good faith and credit of the United States."

If the government were to miss payments on debt coming due, it would be technically in default on the $5.95 trillion national debt, something that has never happened in the country's history. That would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, now considered the world's safest investment, and would mean the government would be forced to pay billions of dollars in higher interest payments on the national debt in future years.

Economists and other experts don't think that would happen because Congress is sure to eventually raise the debt ceiling.

O'Neill appeared to agree.

"It's not a question of whether we are going to do it or not. It's just a question of how close to the cliff we're going to run before we do what we know we need to do," he said.

__

On the Net:

Treasury: http://www.ustreas.gov/

R Powell

(05/08/2002; 16:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75219)

YGM

Debt In regards to that $5.95 trillion. Couldn't O'Neill just pay it with a Visa or Master card to delay the billing for another month. This would give Congress time for a well-deserved two week vacation and still time to raise the national debt ceiling. Maybe we could pay it with one of those 1.9% credit card checks that everyone gets weekly in the mail. This lower rate would safe the taxpayers some money.
Any more news about JPM's gold trading department??
Rich

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 16:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75220)

R Powell

Re: Debt

They wouldn't be smart enough to use the Visa Checks, more like an 18% card and then scoop the frequent flyer miles (smile).

Rock

(05/08/2002; 16:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75221)

Mr. Gresham

Mr. G quotes, "How many more bullets in PPT's revolver? "Now you're probably asking yourself -- did he fire five rounds, or six..."

Thats a good one Mr. G, I learn alot and laugh alot at this forum. One of our fine minds said it well a few weeks ago when they said, "I'm working on my masters in economics and international finance right here at USA Gold," my sentiments exactly.

About today's spike in the Dow and Nasdaq, what me worry? The way they are hyping it up on the news channels you'd think that we're back in a bull market like in the 90's.

Heck it's only a one day bounce, and even though gold dropped a few bucks today, gold will take a dip from time to time as it has over the past few years but look where its at today. From 270.00 an oz in January 2002 to 309.00 in May 2002, that's a clean $39.00 jump this year. I'm happy with that, I don't know anyone showing me those kinds of returns on Qualcom ect.

The problem with the stock market today is you have great expetations in war with reality.

Cheers,

Rock

R Powell

(05/08/2002; 16:47:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75222)

Interest rates

Waverider posted the first message of the day today with a link to metal interest rates. The silver rates were up substantially. This bears watching. The last time these rates skied upward the cause was attributed to a shortage on the spot market in London. I heard rumors that this was finally eased with the arrival of 12 million ounces from a private source. I've often wondered if the rumor was true and, if so, how long 12 million ounces would keep the wolf away from the door. I've wondered about the rumor which was information given to me by telephone from a trader working for a huge world wide metals' refiner which just happens to have their USA base here in Massachusetts. He wouldn't say any more than what I reported.
Waverider, thanks for the heads-up!
Rich

Golden Bear

(05/08/2002; 16:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75223)

RobotGuy (msg#: 75202)

Greetings RobotGuy,

That prediction was a short term prediction as a probable upside target before the next move down. The market was so weak last week that it did not even get there before it plunged later in the week. That level was a resistence level as I view the charts and would have been a major short term test as the markets looked then...

As we have seen a short term bottom has been put in place and the market is now rallying. Not that I'm saying anything revolutionary to many here who are probably market veterans.

I have been extremely busy the last few day and haven't been able to contribute to the forum, but I will have a closer look at the markets tonight and make a comment.

By the way, I hope I didn't say "must" in my prediction, as there are no definites in the markets, only probabilities...

Cheers,

Golden Bear.

Aristotle

(05/08/2002; 17:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75224)

A change in the wind?

Very wisely there's been a lot of close scrutiny among our hosts and forum members of the Argeninian crisis and the outcome of the peso devaluation. Roughly measuring the benchmarks since the January devaluation, the peso has lost 2/3rds of its value against the dollar and the primary index of the Buenos Aires stock exchange is up more than one-third (33-40%.)

By the way, the local price of Gold in Argentina has more than tripled during this time.

This is all worth considering as we begin to look for non-traditional explanations of today's 3% gains on the DOW and 8% gains on the Nasdaq.

The relationships between the big wigs on Wall Street and those in Washington being what they are, it's not hard to imagine early trading by the big investment houses on tightly held rumors that the government has shifted its stance on the dollar, whether it be willingly or helplessly.

IF (a big if) the JPM rumors have substance, then as the Gold metal market explodes, the U.S. banking system in general will need plenty of liquidity (lots of cheap dollars) to avoid widespread insolvency on several conceivable fronts.

Continuing with the big "IF", these investment houses, aware of Morgan's problems and knowing therefore that Gold in quantity is unobtainable, would also that any additional interest would only add fuel to the fire. One of the natural reactions we might expect to see under limited options would in fact be a seemingly unnatural rise in the stock markets that can't otherwise be justified by the public economic news of the day.

Sometimes it's a blessing to be small. Its easier to shift your funds to target the best avenues without worrying about single-handedly moving (and exploding) the targeted market. In light of the experiences of Argentina in the wake of a real currency devaluation, I'd rather be small and thus able to shift my thousands into Gold (300%) than to be a huge institution whose millions are only able to slosh (responsibly) into the runner-up prize of the stock market (40%).

Hmmmmmmm. What did we see here today... and why?

Some idle ramblings, full of holes, but something you should consider anyway.

Gold. Get you some. STILL very heavy for the price. --- Aristotle

Hipplebeck

(05/08/2002; 17:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75225)

schizoid markets

Man, there is a lot of money out there just swashing about looking for somewhere safe. How much poured out of the bonds market and ran for stocks today? The treasury put a big dump on the bond market today. Rates are going up.
Sharon's move. What's he gonna do? Are we already in a financial war? In this corner we have the USA and Isreal, and in this corner we have the Arabs and Islam. Have we come that far?

Arcticfox

(05/08/2002; 17:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75226)

Gold outlook....

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020508&dateOffset=&hub=headdex&title=Headlines&cache_key=headdexBusiness¤t_row=27☆t_row=27#_rows=1Snip..

By CAROLYN LEITCH
INVESTMENT REPORTER

The Globe and Mail
Wednesday, May 8, 2002 � Page B15

Investing in gold and gold stocks has provided rich returns so far in 2002, but one Bay Street strategist believes the yellow metal has not finished its run yet.

David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., sees potential for a run-up in the gold price to as high as $325 (U.S.) an ounce, and a further 10-per-cent gain in the shares of gold producers.

"Consider that a conservative call," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note to clients yesterday.

YGM

(05/08/2002; 17:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75227)

Rich.....JPM Chase, Dinsa Menta. Enron

http://energycommerce.house.gov/107/news/03072002_508.htmEnergy and Commerce Committee Seeks Details From Wall Street on Enron

Washington (March 6) - As part of their continuing investigation into the financial collapse of Enron Corporation, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Billy Tauzin (R-LA), along with Ranking Member John Dingell (D-MI), Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman James Greenwood (R-PA) and Subcommittee Ranking Member Peter Deutsch (D-FL), today called on more than a dozen Wall Street investment and credit-rating firms to turn over records linked to Enron and its related partnerships, as well as services provided for the bankrupt company.

(Attached below are copies of the letters sent today to more than a dozen Wall Street investment and credit-rating firms)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HERE'S THE LETTER TO JP MORGAN/CHASE.*NOTE* DINSA MENTA NAMED AND ALL RECORDS REQUESTED...The rest of the letters are linked...BTW...Many if not most named in inquiry are part of the Gold Suppression Cabal..FWIW..YGM

--------------------
March 6, 2002

Mr. William B. Harrison, Jr.
President and Chief Executive Officer
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
270 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10017-2070

Dear Mr. Harrison:

The Committee on Energy and Commerce is investigating matters relating to the financial collapse of Enron Corp. ("Enron"). To date, the Committee's investigation has revealed or learned, among other things, about information relating to the manipulation of Enron's financial statements to artificially inflate Enron's stock value; reports that Enron accounted for large loans from financial institutions as financial hedges instead of debt on its balance sheet in order to mask its weakening financial condition (Enron's "derivative contracts"); evidence developed by the Committee that for financial institutions, future business with Enron, or the lack thereof, was linked to investment in Enron's "special purpose entities" ("SPEs") or related partnerships; and, that individuals employed by various financial institutions were offered the opportunity to, and did invest in, these SPEs and Enron-related partnerships controlled by Andrew Fastow, Enron's former Chief Financial Officer, and/or Michael Kopper, namely, LJM Cayman LP (LJM1) and LJM2 Co-Investment LP (LJM2).

To assist in the Committee's investigation, please provide, pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, the following information to the Committee by no later than Wednesday, March 20, 2002:

Please list all securities underwriting, advisory services, including, but not limited to, mergers and acquisitions advisory services, and credit facilities services provided by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., and/or Stoneville Aegean Ltd. for Enron or its SPEs or related partnerships from 1997 to present. Please list the date of each contract or other commitment for such services, the fee or compensation earned by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. with respect to each such contract, and the date and amount of the underlying transactions.

Did J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. invest in, or otherwise provide financing for, any Enron SPEs or related partnerships, including, but not limited to, the Raptor and Whitewing entities, the Marlin Water Trust, the Osprey Trust and related SPEs, the Nighthawk SPE, the Firefly SPE, the Sequoia SPE, the Choctaw SPE, the Cherokee SPE, the Cheyenne SPE, Chewco Investments, LP, JEDI I and II, LJM1 and LJM2? If so, please provide the dates and amounts of the investments or financing, who authorized them, and the fees or compensation earned by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Did any J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director invest in any Enron SPEs or related partnerships, including, but not limited to, the Raptor and Whitewing entities, the Marlin Water Trust, the Osprey Trust and related SPEs, the Nighthawk SPE, the Sequoia SPE, the Choctaw SPE, the Cherokee SPE, the Cheyenne SPE, Chewco Investments, LP, JEDI I and II, LJM1 and LJM2? If so, please identify the individuals making the investments, and the date and amount of each investment, and state J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s policy regarding investments by its employees, officers, or directors in entities for which J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. provided investment services or advice. Please provide a copy of this policy to the Committee.

Committee interviews with, and testimony from, Jeffrey McMahon and Sherron Watkins, as well as other information learned by the Committee, indicate that several financial institutions and their employees claimed to have received promises, inferences, or suggestions from Enron and/or LJM employees that the financial institutions would receive future Enron business if they invested in the LJM partnerships. Please state whether any officer or employee of Enron or the LJM partnerships made any guarantee, promise, suggestion, innuendo or other communication that suggests or otherwise indicates that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would receive future business from Enron, or that the likelihood of receiving such business would increase, if J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. or its employees, officers, or directors invested in, or provided financing to, any Enron SPE or related partnership. If so:

Identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above;

Identify each transaction associated with any business received from Enron as a result of investments made by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. or its employees, officers, or directors; and

Provide all records relating to these transactions.

Committee interviews with, and testimony from, Jeffrey McMahon and Sherron Watkins, as well as other information learned by the Committee, indicate that several financial institutions and their employees claimed to have received threats, suggestions, or innuendo that a failure to invest in the LJM partnerships would have a negative impact on the likelihood that they would receive future Enron business. Please state whether any officer or employee of Enron or the LJM partnerships made any threat, suggestion, or innuendo that suggests or otherwise indicates that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would not receive future Enron business if it or its employees, officers, or directors did not invest in any Enron SPE or related partnership. If so, please identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above. If so:
Identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above;

Identify any Enron related transaction J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.. believes it was denied as a result of a failure to invest in the LJM partnerships, or other Enron-related partnerships; and

Provide all records relating to these lost transactions.

Reportedly, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. earned over $100 million in revenue from its relationship with Mahonia, Ltd. and Mahonia Natural Gas, Ltd. Please describe what interest, economic or otherwise, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has in Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Lively Ltd., and/or Justice Ltd., and the dates those interests were obtained.

Reportedly, from 1997 to 2000, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. used Mahonia Ltd. and its related companies provided for or arranged more than $2.2 billion of "back-to-back" transactions where Mahonia-related companies signed forward contracts for delivery of oil and gas from Enron, and contemporaneously, J.P. Morgan would sign identical contracts with the Mahonia-related companies. Please provide all records relating to such transactions.

Please describe any ownership or economic interest that persons, charitable trusts, or entities/shareholders other than J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. may have in Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Justice Ltd., and/or Lively Ltd. Please provide the names of these persons, charitable trusts, or other entities/shareholders of Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Justice Ltd., and/or Lively Ltd.

Reportedly, Mahonia Ltd. and Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd. are owned or controlled by two entities, Mourant & Co. and Mourant & Co. Secretaries. Please describe J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s relationship with Mourant & Co. and Mourant & Co. Secretaries.

Please provide all records relating to communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Jeffrey McMahon, Andrew Fastow, Richard Causey, Richard Buy, or Joseph Deffner, relating to any Enron SPEs, trusts, or related partnerships.

Please provide copies of all communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., Dinsa Mehta, associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Cliff Baxter, Jeffrey McMahon, Andrew Fastow, Richard Causey, Richard Buy, or Joseph Deffner, relating to any investment, loan, or derivative contract that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and/or Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., or Stoneville Aegean Ltd. made with or to Enron or its related SPEs, trusts, or partnerships.

Please provide all records relating to communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., Dinsa Mehta, associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ian James, reportedly a director of Mahonia Ltd.

Finally, please identify all senior J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employees or officers who worked on or were responsible for its Enron-related transactions, and make them available for interviews with Committee staff.

Please note that, for the purpose of responding to these requests, the term "Enron," as used above, means Enron Corp., or one or more of its divisions, subsidiaries or affiliates, or related entities. The term "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.," as used above, means, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. since its merger on December 31, 2000, and includes the separate companies, J.P. Morgan & Co., and The Chase Manhattan Corporation, that existed prior to the merger, and any of their respective related and affiliated businesses. The terms "records" and "relating" should be interpreted in accordance with the attachment to this letter.

If you have any questions, please contact Mark Paoletta, Chief Counsel for Oversight and Investigations, at (202) 225-2927, or Edith Holleman, Minority Counsel, at (202) 226-3400.

Sincerely,

W.J. "Billy" Tauzin
Chairman

John D. Dingell
Ranking Member

James C. Greenwood
Chairman, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

Peter Deutsch
Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

Pizz

(05/08/2002; 17:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75228)

Aristotle

Darn good ramblings.

YGM

(05/08/2002; 17:52:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75229)

THOSE BEING INVESTIGATED>>>>>>>

Previous Link @ Energy Commerce InquiryMERRILL LYNCH,
CITIGROUP,
GOLDMAN SACHS,
CREDIT SUISSE BOSTON,
JP MORGAN CHASE,
LEHMAN BROS,
MORGAN STANLEY,
DEUTSCHE BANK,
STANDARD & POORS,
MOODY'S,
UBS PAINE WEBBER.

***Also noteworthy is the Bush Whitehouse is in full support of hearings/inquiries and of criminal charges of "ANY" Manipulations......ENRON is/was involved the the Gold Markets Manipulation scam as sure as there's sky above!
There was just too much collusion for them to resist!

An awful lot going on at the present, so much as to give one a headache trying to sort & keep up....Black Blades
"BONE PILE" will feed all the Bears in N America before it's over.........YGM.

TownCrier

(05/08/2002; 17:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75230)

Today's rally in stock prices...

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/10021533.htmlSimple short covering ranks right up there among the excuses.

Excerpt from TheStreet.com:

-------In a rally of near biblical proportions, what had been last for so long was first today. Still, it is only the true believers who are convinced that it was anything more than a token offering to the long-dead bull market.

...a great many market participants believe a rally was primed to occur at the slightest provocation.

Heading into today's session, the Nasdaq Composite had closed down in 14 of the past 16 sessions and the S&P 500 in 10 of 12, noted Jeffrey Saut, chief equity strategist at Raymond James. Meanwhile most major averages were well below various moving averages and thus oversold.

"Consequently, the market was set up [as] complacent shorts had crowded into the theater and Cisco shouted 'fire,'" Saut quipped.

..."In markets like this, err on being conservative," he said. "Fundamentals haven't changed one iota. I still think it's a muted [economic] recovery, and stocks are not priced for muted."----------

The healthy portfolio is the one that is prudently diversified. Call USAGOLD / Centennial for help with the gold component.

R.

Waverider

(05/08/2002; 18:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75231)

IDF massing troops near Gaza in preparation for retaliatory strike

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=161125&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0Snippit:
"The IDF began massing forces on the border with the Gaza Strip late Wednesday night, in preparation for a retaliatory operation following the suicide bomb attack in Rishon Letzion which killed 15 people."

Waverider: Hipplebeck - "what's Sharon going to do?" I've found the newslink above, the "Haaretz" the best for news on Isreal, and the most current as it has frequent updates. Cheers!

canamami

(05/08/2002; 18:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75232)

"Day of Reckoning" is coming (looming U.S. credit crisis)

http://www.canada.com/halifax/dailynews/columnists/story.asp?id={29B55F66-3829-4285-B6BA-AC2AD7E3DABA}This is from Brian Flemming of the Halifax Daily News:

'Day of reckoning' coming
Looming deficit crisis in U.S. bad news for world's economy

By Brian Flemming
The Daily News

Last week, in the world of G7 economies, there was good news and not-so-good news. The best news for Canada was its return to grace and favour in the bond market. Moody's gave our bonds an AAA rating for the first time in nearly a decade. Too bad we're not issuing new bonds any more.

Also, with the growth in Canada's GDP plus paydowns of our debt, Canada's indebtedness is approaching 50 per cent of GDP. Finally, this country is within spitting distance of the 40 per cent mark, considered by most economists to be an appropriate and safe level for an economy like Canada's.

The not-so-good news emerged from America. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) claimed the American current account deficit � borrowing from abroad to cover domestic budgetary shortfalls � now represents one of the largest risks to the world's economy.

The hitherto bulletproof U.S. greenback hit some six-month lows against major currency competitors. The euro climbed through the 90 to the dollar mark for the first time in many moons. Even the long-suffering loonie finally began to show strength against the mighty American currency.

Louis Crandall, economist for a leading American bond market research firm, said, "The day of reckoning is certainly coming ... I've been looking for it for quite some time." What Crandall and the IMF are worried about is the fact that the American economy, to keep cranking along at current levels, needs to borrow almost two billion bucks a day (!) from foreigners. So far, these foreigners still seem to have an appetite for greenbacks.

For years now, major foreign investors have gorged themselves on American assets � stocks, bonds, real estate. Smaller players have stuffed American dollars under mattresses or in cookie jars. Even the international drug market has helped; it runs entirely on American currency that will never return to the U.S.

If, for any reason, those habits of investing or saving of American dollars should shift, the current account deficit would then have to shrink. That, in a nutshell, is what happened in Argentina last year. U.S. dollars evaporated and, of course, the Argentinians had no way of printing American dollars. (Canada, in stark contrast to the U.S., has a huge international current account surplus.)

A sudden shrinkage of the American current account deficit would trigger a collapse in domestic demand (i.e. cause a recession) and/or would push the dollar down from its current pinnacle.

The Economist last week quoted a study of current account deficits in developed economies from Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed found that "deficits usually began to reverse when they exceeded five per cent of GDP. And this adjustment was accompanied by an average fall in the nominal exchange rate of forty per cent, along with a sharp slowdown in GDP growth."America's economy is fast approaching the five per cent level. That's the "day of reckoning" Crandall is referring to; it's expected to arrive in December. Morgan Stanley says it could even reach six per cent by 2003. That, said The Economist, would be the largest deficit run by any G7 economy in 30 years.

American treasury secretary Paul O�Neill, one of George W. Bush's weakest cabinet ministers, poopoos these concerns and says the current account deficit is a "meaningless concept." That's what British chancellor of the exchequer Nigel Lawson used to say until his economy tanked in the late 80s.

What has changed recently in America has been the passage of a Bush tax cut for the wealthy plus a post-9/11 increase in defence spending. Suddenly the Clinton domestic surplus has evaporated like the morning dew. And if the stock market is performing its historic function � namely, giving a six-month-out snapshot of the economy � then even the most dedicated Bushies should be sweating. The Dow can't stay over 10,000; p/e ratios are still high; Nasdaq has returned to the basement.

On top of that, the increasingly protectionist Bush administration � driven almost entirely by short-term domestic political advantage � may soon give foreign lenders pause too.

Should Canadians worry too? Or just exult in the coming ascent of the loonie? I think we should do both. Any current account deficit crisis in America would cause major disruption in Canadian exports. On the other hand, the loonie could finally move to where The Economist's famed, and accurate, Big Mac Index says it should be: at about 80 U.S. cents.

Speed the day.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 18:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75233)

Merrill, Goldman Bond Default Insurance Soars: Rates of Return

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=APNhOpxZLTWVycmls
Snippit:

New York, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., are among Wall Street firms that may pose growing risks for bond investors. The cost of insuring Merrill Lynch's $71 billion of notes and bonds against default has jumped 80 percent since last month. That's when New York state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer began an investigation into Wall Street's conflicts of interest between analyst research and investment banking. Other securities firms' credit default swaps are also rising.

Black Blade: Some analysts claim that the improvement in financial share prices are based on the rumor of a deal between NY state AG Spitzer and Merrill Lynch that will allow the Wall Street Investment firm to pay a fine without admitting guilt. That does not mean that the other 19 states now seeking redress will follow through and there still exists the numerous lawsuits from investors that are sure to follow.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 19:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75234)

Gold prices seen set to climb further

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020508&dateOffset=&hub=headdex&title=Headlines&cache_key=headdexBusiness¤t_row=27☆t_row=27#_rows=1
Snippit:

Investing in gold and gold stocks has provided rich returns so far in 2002, but one Bay Street strategist believes the yellow metal has not finished its run yet. David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., sees potential for a run-up in the gold price to as high as $325 (U.S.) an ounce, and a further 10-per-cent gain in the shares of gold producers. "Consider that a conservative call," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note to clients yesterday. Mr. Rosenberg says gold serves as good, low-cost portfolio insurance.

Black Blade: No argument from me.

Canuck

(05/08/2002; 19:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75235)

@ YGM

Best to take profits now.

I have been watching the POG for 4 years now. IT IS A FUNCTION OF THE US DOLLAR. I am sure there is a linear equation of POG/USD/YEN/POUND/EURO/FRANC.

Study that question and answer yes or no before proceeding to fact #2. If yes proceed to #2.

Gold is inverse to the USD, so should the USD rise gold will fall. We witnessed that large today. Should there be a demand for gold and a supply of dollars gold will rise. We saw a frenzy in Japan in Jan. and Feb. but there are no stories in March or April. Demand has wained. If yes proceed to #3.

The economic recovery is about as clear as the non-economic recovery. Stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, who have taken a 60-80% beating, as a whole, have been trending the 1500-1800 mark for a long, long time. It is entirely possible that the bottom is in for tech shares? If yes, proceed to #4.

Let's say, for the most part that gold stocks have doubled (100%). Let's say that tech stocks have been quartered (25%). By virtue of the CONTRARIAN definition, should we buy tech stocks? By virtue of currency valuation and import/export imperatives must Japan and its equals export to maintain economic viability. How could a valuation of say, 100 yen to the dollar possible exist? If yes, proceed to #5.

As a student of demographics, and the reader of "DOW, 36,000" I understand that governments will twist the numbers in a grotesque fashion to acheive the results demanded. Governments must provide 'old-timers' will mega-fiat-bucks in as little as 10 years. Everyone must be rich for there will be no hand-outs. If yes, proceed to #6.

There is no alternative to the USD. Not at this point. Gold is cool but not today. The world is dollarized, there are trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. Gold had its run but things were not GRIM enough. The US would not BLOW its international standing over 2 huge skyscrapers. The rowdy Islamic community will be beaten into submission, Iraq may or may not take a major hit. Maybe it should? It would be in the best interests for the US to whittle Hussein back a notch or 7.

A major chartered bank lowered long-term interests rates today, usually the major CDN chartered banks follow suit. Why would CDN banks lower mortgage rates today? Well, one housing starts fell off a cliff today. (10.4%) They are not worried about inflation? They sense a switch, mortage money demand is waining, money is moving somewhere? JPM had a stellar day today, contrary to the isssues raised last night. The market expects JPM to increase profits.

A shift back to the bubble?

Take profits now??

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 19:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75236)

Crude Oil Jumps as Israel Considers Response to Suicide Bombing

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNlgLhbaQ3J1ZGUg
Snippit:

New York, May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil jumped to a one- month high after a suicide bombing that killed 15 Israelis renewed concern that escalating violence might disrupt supplies from the Middle East, which pumps a third of the world's oil.

Inventory Decline

Oil prices also rose after the American Petroleum Institute reported a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories. Supplies last week fell 4.5 million barrels, or 1.4 percent, to 321.1 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the report expected a decline of about 750,000 barrels.

Black Blade: The Oil inventory level is not much different from last year's energy crisis levels. Meanwhile Oil hovers just below $28.00/bbl and NG is at $3.75 Mbtu.

Canuck

(05/08/2002; 19:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75237)

@ YGM

..and all those investments banks, they will be cleared of all wrongdoings. An article in the Globe and Mail alluded to ML's plea bargaining already. Enron and AA will be slapped 'on the wrist'.

I guess what I am saying is, "to what danger is the USD in at this present moment?"

Really?

Canuck

(05/08/2002; 19:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75238)

BB just nailed it

Oil is at $27 and NG is at $3.75.

The 'energy' bears say there is a $5 war premium built in. So let's be bearish, oil $22, NG $3.25.

The economy has lots of room to rock, the failure zone last time was $37, $10. Will Russian oil play a role this time? Will Canadian NG play a role this time?

Is energy a stopper again this time, probably, is gold a 'walker' until then or do we see a sub-300 gold again?

Curious, devil's advocate if you will?

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 19:44:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75239)

Experts predict fuel crunch for developing countries

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=143231
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 8 -- Energy demand is growing in developing countries that may be hindered by the lack of investment in exploiting their own energy resources, said a panel of industry experts at the opening of the 4-day Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. That demand is growing fastest in China and India, with their burgeoning populations. But in focusing on India and China, "we may be forgetting other parts of the world," warned Matthew R. Simmons, president and founder of Simmons & Co. International, who mediated the invitation-only 2002 OTC Energy Roundtable on Monday.

The combined populations of the 13 member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Mexico, have escalated to some 600 million today from 180 million in 1970, said Simmons at a press conference following that 4-hour session.
"By 2030, their [combined] population could be larger than [that of] India," he said. "History shows that countries only begin to slow their population growth after they become prosperous."

Regions of Asia�China, India, and South Korea�and of Central and South America will be hot spots for future demand growth, with consuming patterns increasingly similar to that of industrialized nations, EIA officials predicted. Those areas are expected to account for about half of the projected new increment in world energy consumption and 83% of the increase for developing countries.

He [Simmons] said, "Over the last 30 years, world oil demand has grown by about 25 million b/d, and maybe 60% of that has come from offshore." But maintaining that level of supply over the next 20 years will be difficult at best, especially from conventional sources. "Many [of the roundtable participants] said, 'Thank goodness for unconventional oil resources, such as oil sands,'" Simmons reported. Such resources will become a bigger factor in supplying the world's growing demand in the future, "unless demand peters out, which means our economy will have petered out."

Black Blade: With most Oil fields in decline, growing populations, modernization and industrialization, most Third world nations will demand their "fair share" of the Earth's dwindling energy supply. Costs are rising and if we must depend on costly unconventional energy supply we will never again see the economic growth of the past several years.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 20:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75240)

Flap over gold derivative "firings"

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BB30072242F?OpenDocument
Snippit:

PRINCETON, New Jersey �� Gold bug extraordinaire Bill Murphy reported in a circular to readers of the LeMetropole Web site that JP Morgan Chase's derivatives operations are in chaos. The bank flatly denies the claims and Miningweb has verified that at least one of the executives said to have been "fired" is still on staff.

Donald Eckert, global bullion risk manager at JPMC New York, was contemptuous of the claims and says nobody has been fired in the derivatives or bullion trading departments. He also denied Murphy's report that JPMC managing director of global commodities, Dinsa Mehta, was axed "two weeks ago". Eckert says Mehta volunteered for retirement after the global forex options, forex and gold trading desks were rationalized into a single department. "He was not fired at all, he chose to resign."

Another wrinkle is Mehta's involvement in the Enron fiasco. The House Committee on Energy and Commerce in March called on JPMC to provide copies of any correspondence involving Mehta and Enron's Mahonia subsidiary. When Enron collapsed, Mahonia owed JPMC billions of dollars, which insurers are now refusing to cover because they say the energy transactions were fraudulent. Mehta's precise role in Mahonia is unclear, but he is said to have boasted to colleagues about the fees the transactions generated for JPMC, and which presumably translated into handsome bonuses. The structure of the energy trades was nearly identical to gold hedging with which Mehta would have been especially familiar.

Indeed, Mehta is well known as an arch proponent of hedging and says routinely that gold has been "stripped of its monetary attribute by the globalisation of the international financial system" and that gold has lost its "crisis currency" role.

Black Blade: A lot of damage control perhaps. Mehta left to "pursue other interests". It is apparent that miningweb.com has served as apologists for the hedge fund miners for some time.

mikal

(05/08/2002; 20:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75241)

Bullish story from a stealth headline

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&t...Media speculation is yet again heralding a totally new currency environment! You gotta love the second half of this:
�

05/09 02:02
Dollar, Little Changed, May Extend Gain After Rally in Stocks.....snippit.......................................
The U.S. currency hovered at 128.95 yen after touching 129.07, its highest since April 25. Against the euro, it was little changed at 90.47 U.S. cents, after having its biggest gain in 3 1/2 months yesterday...........................
...``The current level is likely to persuade Japanese companies to buy the yen,�� said Kenji Takei, a currency sales vice president at the Tokyo branch of Societe Generale SA.
The yen also may be helped by expectations a report due today will show Japan's index of coincident economic indicators in March rose to the level that signals growth, suggesting the nation's recession has passed the worst.
The index, which measures current conditions by tracking indicators such as power usage, wholesale sales and production, probably rose to 50 for the first time in 15 months, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The report is due at 2:00 p.m. Japan time.
Latest reports showed March Japanese factory production rose for a second month, the jobless rate unexpectedly fell, and salaried worker-led households' spending rose.
In other trading, the dollar was little changed at 1.6087 Swiss francs and at $1.4563 per the British pound.END...... Yes, it looks like your writers ended up far from where they started, Mr. Bloomberg.

mikal

(05/08/2002; 20:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75242)

Media spinning with a new twist-"Cover your backside"

http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=500922002Say it isn't so! Yes, you've done it again. Reporting from both sides of your mouth. Never mind, these days you're running par for the course. But this one is so gold bullish, it's a wonder where you ever came up with that title: "Where dollar leads, Euro follows", LOL! Click link or USAGOLD News Link

Canuck

(05/08/2002; 20:41:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75243)

Ten o'clock news just on

Here's the lead:

"Stock markets had their best day in a long, long time. Housing starts were down 10.4% in April and 2 of the country's banks have lowered long term rates by 15/100 of a percent."

Forget all the conjecture and speculation, this is a three-fold reversal:
a)SM
b)housing starts
c)trend of long-term interest rates

What does this mean? Banks don't reverse trend all of a sudden.

GOLDENPROPHECY

(05/08/2002; 20:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75244)

mahendra sharma

SINCE MAHENDRA SHARMA SAYS GOLD WILL REACH $350 BY MID YEAR 2002, I DO NOT THINK WE HAVE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT THIS LITTLE CORRECTION. AGAIN HE WAS RIGHT ON NASDAQ AS WLL.
HIS WEBSITE HAS MORE DETAILS

Canuck

(05/08/2002; 20:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75245)

I don't get it

Checking the Kitco chart for the billionth time today, one sees that gold powered to a New York, three day high of $312.60 at 11:15 where it was whacked four bucks. Unlike Tuesday it was unable to recover.

If I recall Cisco released last night afterhours and while the Dow surged ahead this morning so did gold.

So, checking the graph again, what would explain a $3.60 surge from 8:45 to 11:15 followed by a 4 dollar crash from 11:15 to noon?

So given that Cisco was a known and the SM was a known what explains the sudden reversal except for blatant manipulation. Ask yourself this, given that everything else was in a constant linear slope, what causes gold to reverse in so much a drastic fashion at such an obscure time of day?

What is that? What happened at 11:15 that was so anti-gold??

YGM

(05/08/2002; 21:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75246)

Canuck.....

What Profits?My man if I had 50,000 oz of Au and had a $10.00 profit I'd probably sell and forget all this financial crap and crime perpetrated by scumbag bankers...Kinda get on with what's left of my life @ age 53. I'm as much of a cynic when it comes to the power of the Bankers and the Elite over our lives as I am the optimist on the future of Gold. The last few years have bin an emotional roller coaster for us all.
...Now as I'm no longer involved in Mining or playing the
SM, I'm kinda content to wait & see if all I am optimistic about (Gold) will win over the cynical side (Bankers & Scumbags). I think I'll just rattle along & do my little part til the SHTF & the Car-tel runs out of gas.........
If anyone can play the swings in PMs and the SM & win w/o having a nervous breakdown...Well more power to them.....

As I've mentioned in past "GREED IS IT'S OWN EXECUTIONER"

"PHYSICAL GOLD" Buy It, Hide It, & carry on with life!

mikal

(05/08/2002; 21:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75247)

My, my. Asian eye. Something seems the better buy.

�
�
(AFX-Focus) 2002-05-09 03:10 GMT: Forex - Dollar eases in late morning Tokyo after earlier short-covering
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar eased in late morning after sharp gains made overnight on short-covering...... "The market was obviously short the dollar. It's only a correction so far," said Nami Ito of the forex division at Barclays Bank...................Ito noted recent talk that Japanese portfolio investors may have started to send funds overseas for the new fiscal year after disappointing speculators earlier in April.
"Some say that, but we haven't seen much yet," she said.
"People are talking about Moody's. Some say that if they cut by two notches, that will be the end ... and the dollar will go down," she added.
Moody's said it may cut Japan's sovereign rating by up to two notches, adding that an early decision may be made, with speculation that an announcement is likely this month.....click USAGOLD news link for more
��

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 22:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75248)

The Barbarous Relic Files � 521kg of gold dust seized

Welkom - The Free State's infamous G-hostel near Welkom, and parts of Moletsi Hostel, were raided on Tuesday and 521kg of gold dust were confiscated, police said. Police, intent on ending the hostels' illegal melting activities, also confiscated gas cylinders, scales and other equipment used to process the gold concentrate. Superintendent Sam Sesing said although nobody was arrested during the Operation, called "Shapa", police were dedicated to dealing a hard blow to gold theft and would continue their raid on Wednesday. "G-hostel will never be a safe haven for criminals anymore. Disruptive actions like Operation Shapa will be sent from time to time and will hit the criminals where it hurts most," said provincial commissioner Moranodi Gaobepe.

Black Blade: The police sure waste a lot of time over a "barbarous relic" destined for the dustbin of history. Hmmm�

YGM

(05/08/2002; 22:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75249)

Black Blade

521 KG of Flour Gold......Well now I'm drooling...The fineness would make it almost pure Gold....@ 2.2 lbs p/kg uuuugh! I shall have nightmares tonite....Where the heck was this place Welkom?

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 22:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75250)

Ex Nippon Mining & Metals workers arrested in gold fraud

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/020507/kyodo/d7jbpblo1.html
Snippit:

Police on Tuesday arrested former employees of Nippon Mining & Metals Co. and scrap suppliers in Oita City on suspicion of defrauding the company out of more than 300 million yen by misrepresenting gold levels in scrap it bought. In the scam, they took samples from delivered scrap in September and October last year to add gold to them, creating the impression that the overall gold content was higher, according to the police.

Nippon Mining & Metals decides the purchase price of scrap based on the gold content of samples. An in-house investigation by the firm found the overall gold content of the scrap was lower than the samples, prompting it to file a complaint with the police at the end of last year.

Black Blade: Going to prison over a "barbarous relic"? What's the point? Hmmm�

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 22:33:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75251)

YGM

That's a story from South Africa.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 22:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75252)

Price rally puts gold hedging out of fashion

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3WZ2VBY0D
Snippit:

Gold companies are famously divided into hedgers and non-hedgers. Those in the hedging camp have been on the defensive lately, while the others are gloating. The sustained rise in the gold price and a rosier outlook for the metal have made selling forward less attractive to both producers and shareholders.

Black Blade: The day of the hedger is over. It's the dawn of a new age where hedgers are irrelevant.

balzac

(05/08/2002; 22:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75253)

Inconsistencies ???

An interesting observation: Dow up 300 pts,Gold down $3.00.

However my 4 PM Funds lost only 2 cents.

Just previously when gold jumped $3.00 , the Funds

went up 25 to 30 cents. Explain that one. PLS.

Balzac.

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 23:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75254)

Barrick dismisses rumors of Gold Fields deal

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news≠ws_id=reu-n08379246&feed=reu&date=20020508&cat=USMARKET
Snippit:

TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), which has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold producer through a series of acquisitions over the past 20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it was poised to swell further by taking over a South African producer. "The rumors about South Africa are just that. While we assess opportunities and we are familiar with opportunities, they are just rumors," Randall Oliphant, president of Toronto-based Barrick told shareholders at the company's annual meeting.

Earlier this week a prominent mining Internet site reported that Barrick and AngloGold Ltd. (ANGJ), the third-largest gold company, would team up to buy Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ), the fourth-largest producer. "These rumors are creative, but it's just somebody creating this stuff at home in their basement," Oliphant told reporters after the meeting.

Black Blade: As I had pointed out to Tim Wood on the miningweb.com, the rumor was senseless as Barrick does not have the means to takeover Goldfields and such a merger would not likely pass muster with the largely anti-hedge shareholder base. Besides, the Goldfields share price has rocketed higher while the Barrick share price has barely budged by comparison. No Goldfields shareholder wants that Barrick albatross hanging around their neck.

The Invisible Hand

(05/08/2002; 23:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75255)

Look at the title!

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Market+Summary&content_idx=11468Market Summary, by Rob Peebles
Atlas shrugs, stocks rocket
May 8, 2002
---
Is it really that near?

RobotGuy

(05/08/2002; 23:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75256)

Dear Golden Bear,

An opinion in this forum,to me,is just as valid as a fact. As far as I'm concerned there is nobody who might predict the future accurately no matter what calculation you choose to endeavor upon. E = m c/squared is a formula that humans have accepted as truth, but in reality it is a formula that will be proven wrong before long.

I am very greatful of the opinion of my fellow human, as to me it is just as valid as a written law. Thank-you for your continued support.

RobotGuy.

Goldfly

(05/08/2002; 23:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75257)

YGM.... a link

http://iafrica.com/news/sa/938703.htmFWIW

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 23:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75258)

Louisiana-Pacific to Cut 4,400 Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020508/manufacturing_louisiana_pacific_3.html
Snippit:

PORTLAND (Reuters) - Loss-making building products company Louisiana-Pacific Corp. announced a radical restructuring on Wednesday to cut debt that included the sale of several businesses and the loss of 4,400 jobs. The company said it would divest 935,000 acres of timberland in three states, along with its lumber and industrial panels operations, in a move to maintain investment grade credit ratings and focus on profitable businesses.

Black Blade: Logging company whittles down work force. Sending off more to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade

(05/08/2002; 23:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75259)

Andersen: 2,000 Workers to Join Deloitte

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020508/financial_andersen_deloitte_2.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Embattled accounting firm Andersen LLP said on Wednesday about 2,000 of its workers will join rival Deloitte & Touche, as it reshapes itself while facing a criminal charge from its role as auditor for bankrupt energy trader Enron Corp.

Black Blade: That's 2,000 rats jumping off the burning derelict Arthur Andersen.

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 00:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75260)

California Consumers Hope Power Blackouts Are History

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2002/05/08/krtbn/0000-0463-SJ-BLACKOUTS
Snippit:

The state's complex electricity system is far from fixed, with consumers paying inflated bills while government leaders warn of future troubles. "All of the fundamentals that allowed the energy crisis to take place are still there in suspended animation," said Fred Keeley, D-Santa Cruz and speaker pro tem of the state Assembly.

But California faces some worrisome trends and unresolved issues. Conservation, which proved the key to avoiding blackouts last summer, is about half the level it was last year. Consumers last year shaved 10 percent off their peak use, but the savings has since slipped to 5.5 percent. The state's grid managers, however, say conservation is still critical.

Another worry is that the rush to build new power plants is over. The collapse of last year's high prices has led energy companies to cancel 62 projects that would have pumped out 4,600 megawatts, spelling trouble for coming years. Stricter pollution controls will also force old plants into retirement, for a loss of nearly 900 megawatts.

California still needs to pull in 3,500 megawatts from neighboring states to meet its needs. To keep up with the state's expected growth, grid managers say the state must add 1,000 to 1,500 megawatts of new energy generation each year. But with today's soft power prices, lenders aren't too eager to finance half-billion-dollar power plant projects.

Transmission bottlenecks, blamed for the first rolling blackouts which hit the San Francisco Bay Area in June 2000, still plague the region, as well as San Diego. The "Path 15" route that moves power between northern and southern California is still choked.

Black Blade: I suspect that the Kalifornia Grasshopper will revisit the energy crisis. Unfortunately the Grasshopper must rely on others to survive, and thankfully they can rely on the state of Washington to give them a helping hand with Hydroelectric power. However, if this summer is warmer than usual they will have to deal with dwindling supply and transmission bottlenecks. So scratch one economic recovery for Kalifornia this year.

Belgian

(05/09/2002; 00:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75261)

Wolves do eat wolves ( AU / ABX )

FWIW !!!
AU and ABX have different hedgebooks. If AU can corner ABX with a subtle management (closing out) of its own hedges...softly buying (spot in weakness) and delivering Physical...ABX's enormous hedges could be seriously threathened, without doing too much damage to the remaining AU hedges ? AU (or anyone else) is never going to suggest an ABX take over as extremely overvalued (P/E=58) and vulnarable to any POG rise above 325$ > 350$. The Cambior and Ashanti (wolve) tactics on ABX !? Will and can the financial brotherhood allow this to happen ? Why not ?
In the mean time, daily stories of everyone wanting to take over everyone, are a welcome play of divertisement.
Let those wolves devore each other and watch the spectacle with your own aboveground refined at hand.

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 03:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75262)

Australian gold hedges fall 200,000/oz

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nsyd306786.html
Snippit:

SYDNEY, May 9 (Reuters) - Australian miners reduced their gold hedging positions in the March quarter by 200,000 ounces to 24.3 million ounces, excluding the positions held by the former Normandy Mining, investment bank JP Morgan said on Thursday.

Black Blade: Well�..it's a start.

Boilermaker

(05/09/2002; 04:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75263)

L Kaplan's 5/9 Commentary

I notice that Leonard offers an extremely bullish commentary for gold today. I suppose he's negative on holding physical because he's probably losing some of his paper clients to the physical dealers. He knows what's happening and why but he's been bad-mouthing the conspiracy theory for so long that he can't publically reverse himself without losing all credibility. He's painted himself in a corner. His clients will suffer.

What really caught my eye was the following from his commentary that may explain the silver lease rate increase;

"There has been much talk among traders in the market about J.P. Morgan this past few days. It would appear that Mr. Dinsa Mehta, formerly their Chief Precious Metals and Commodity Analyst, has "retired". As this gentleman was responsible for approving many of the obviously self-enriching and obviously obfuscated trades done with Enron by an affiliate of J.P. Morgan, such a "retirement" (giggle....) is not unexpected. If there is one universal prerogative of large corporations, it is that when something bad happens, SOMEONE MUST DIE. And Mr. Dinsa appears to be the victim.

There are also rumors that this same firm was a MAJOR borrower of silver in the shorter-term periods over the last few days. Perhaps they are just cleaning up some problems. But don't expect anything really significant.

LeSin

(05/09/2002; 05:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75264)

"GOLD IS FREE" Thanks to Mr Vaughn at the Eagle Forum Across the Hall

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/vaughn051002.html
GOLD IS FREE!!!

Gold is finally FREE!!!

Its shackles have been RELEASED & it is ready to begin performing according to the laws of supply & demand. Actually, it is important to understand now that the rules of the game, as dictated by the "big boys", have changed.

When the effort to control the price of gold through the extreme & successful method of hedging, Barrick Gold was first chosen as the "patsy" to carry these designs out. For Barrick playing this role brought prestige & honor & political power to have the important distinction of being the major vehicle implemented in carrying out the gold price manipulation scheme.

But as with the role of all "patsies," their services are eventually no longer needed. Such is now the case with Barrick. It is now time for gold to shine & someone must take the blame & heat for the devastation brought about by the pain that a manipulated gold price has brought about.

Barrick does not like this new role it is being scripted to play.

Just a year ago there were 2 principal gold companies whose duties were the active involvement & pursuit of keeping the price of gold down, AngloGold & Barrick. But now the game has changed & it is has been determined by the elite that it is acceptable for the price of gold to float & maneuver freely.

AngloGold's recent comments & actions reveal this new change of policy. What is AngloGold officially saying about the direction & future of the gold price now?

Bill Murphy 5-1-2002 "The following appeared in a MONEYWEB today. It is MOST SIGNIFICANT. I will elaborate in MIDAS later: (the following is an interview with Bobby Godsell, AngloGold CEO). BOBBY GODSELL: �we've indicated again that we think the gold price is firming and that we've got better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993, maybe even since 1987. Against that background, we've been trimming back our hedge book."

Bill Murphy, "This is a two plus twoer. Gold went to $400 + in 1993 and $500 + in 1987. Up, up and away we go!"

What does this statement from the CEO of the most powerful gold company in the world mean? What Bobby Godsell is announcing to the world is AngloGold's acceptance now of a higher gold price. In this statement he informs the investment community that AngloGold is positioning itself accordingly to prepare for this coming gold price explosion. No longer will there be severe steps taken to keep gold's price down.

What is AngloGold doing to prepare for a higher gold price?

"AngloGold CEO Bobby Godsell has been pounding the table for months and months that Anglo has reduced its hedge book and is going to continue to do so in an aggressive manner."

"That is most unusual. Normally a big hedger completes a buyback program and THEN announces what it has done. My colleagues and I have been scratching our heads as to why Anglo would announce its intentions ahead of time, which would surely result in higher buyback prices�."

"Thus Bobby Godsell wants the world to know that the world's No. 1 gold producer is covering hedges, so as to encourage others to cover hedges, so as to encourage hedge funds and other physical gold buyers to step up to the plate and get long."

Do you begin to understand readers how the wheels are turning & a new position for gold is being established? For a long time it was gold's role to be unimportant & for its price to be kept below 300 dollars an ounce.

Now the rules are changing & the new rule is for gold to be allowed to RISE!!!

This is just too bad for a company like Barrick who has built its entire infrastructure around the concept & practice of hedging. Yes, I will be very surprised to see Barrick in its present form & its current leadership still intact several years from today.

Let me repeat again what Bobby Godsell has said so its significance can really penetrate the brain.

BOBBY GODSELL:"we think the gold price is firming and that we've got better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993 (1993 = 400 an ounce), maybe even since 1987 (1987 = 500 an ounce). Against that background, we've been trimming back our hedge book."

If the above message is not a signal by a major world player & market maker informing the world where gold is heading I do not know what is!!!

Bobby Godsell goes on to say, "We've reduced our hedge book by 1.7 million ounces this quarter, or 120 percent of the company's production. We are now significantly less hedged than we were last quarter. That increases our participation in the firmer gold prices�"

MONEYWEB: Now the gold price is flirting with around the $310 level. Where do you see that by year-end?

BOBBY GODSELL: Byron, all we can say is -- my colleague Kelvin Williams has studied this market for 17 years now -- everything is in place for a firmer price.

Again, "Better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993, maybe even since 1987." (500 + gold price)

"Conservative gold executives like Bobby Godsell do NOT make casual comments such as this. There is a purpose to everything he says in a formal interview. Godsell knows that GATA has been right all along; that the gold price has been rigged and kept at artificially low prices for years. He knows the rig is coming to an end and he knows the gold price is explosive for all the reasons often cited in "Midas" commentary. For those reasons Godsell is not afraid to hint that $400 or $500 gold is possible."

"I can't be the only one in Gold Land to understand this. A statement like this has to freak some of the big hedgers and encourage other big spec players to load the gold boat."

You are right, Bill. This is indeed a message for the remaining hedgers to UNWIND THEIR HEDGES." I consider Godsell's gold comments to be as significant a development as any since GATA began and the Cafe opened for business."

From the very beginning it was designed that Barrick would be the principal patsy to act as the flagship for the practice of hedging & to act as a role model for other gold mining companies to follow.

Now the plan is changed & part of the design is to allow the gold price to move forward. AngloGold is aware of these plans & is preparing for it accordingly. It is important to always remember that the money behind AngloGold represents the REAL world players & market movers. Barrick's players & insiders represent "chump change".

Who controls the purse strings of AngloGold? Go look & see. I would prefer not to mention their names lest my intentions are misconstrued.

Now Barrick is being prepared as the sacrificial lamb.

Is Barrick accepting this new world policy change for gold gracefully & with class?

In desperation to save itself Barrick has tried to position itself stronger by purchasing Homestake to provide a cheap source of unhedged gold. But this will not be enough to save Barrick & Barrick realizes this.

Even now Barrick is beginning to sink under the weight of its own self-created corruption.

Thom Calandra of CBS MarketWatch touched on Barrick in his column today:

"Barrick failed to meet Wall Street earnings expectations Wednesday. In their conference call, Barrick executives fielded numerous analysts' questions about the company's hedged sales of gold, a strategy seen by some as risky if bullion prices rise sharply. Those questions, from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others, were met by Barrick executives, who assured investors they were monitoring the situation."

"Monitoring the situation? What does that mean? The arrogant meatheads at Barrick continue to doubletalk. They are going to get their hat handed to them. AngloGold has outfoxed them and Barrick is stuck sucking up to the Gold Cartel. Hedge book blowups are coming. Will Barrick be one of them?"

"Not only is Barrick (ABX) unable to manage its core business profitably, but CEO Oliphant has dragged his company into the yawning abyss of the Gold Cabal. While the reported loss on derivative gold sales is described as "small", you can bet this number will explode, and most of it splashing across the face of Oliphant. Dump it!" Bill, The Charleston Voice

How deserving that the very pain & horror that Barrick contributed to so many other gold mining companies it is beginning to experience itself.

When Barrick does eventually sink into its own self created sess pool there will be no sympathy from the rest of the gold mining community. Most of those really knowledgeable of the gold mining industry long ago recognized Barrick as an Enron & Author Anderson type financial instititution dealing primarily in derivatives. NEVER was Barrick a true gold miner, but only an Enron Derivatives Dealer.

In desperation Barrick is now even attempting to purchase AngloGold & against AngloGold's will. I'll tell you right now though, that ain't going to be allowed to happen!!!

"GATA Chairman Bill Murphy's "Midas" commentary tonight at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com breaks what may prove to be the story of the year in the gold world: Barrick Gold's plan to acquire AngloGold."

"The big gold news today has to do with Barrick and AngloGold. I was told the following last night by the best of overseas sources:

"Barrick at the moment has a team of 40 people working in Johannesburg. They want to take over AngloGold." Bill Murphy LeMetropole 5-1-2002

And what is AngloGold's response to this?

"And AngloGold's announcing its plans to reduce its hedging, driving up the cost of its own plans, may make sense too, as Murphy writes -- in the context of AngloGold's fending off acquisition by the super-hedged Barrick, for whom a higher gold price is death." Bill Murphy, LeMetropole May 1, 2002

Let us look once more at the hemorrhaging of Barrick.

THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH

May 6, 2002

John C. Doody, editor of the numbers-crunching Gold Stock Analyst newsletter, figures Barrick Gold in its latest reported quarter saw the mark-to-market value of its so-called hedge book drop to a negative $121 million as of March 31 from a positive $380 million on June 30, 2001.

Doody at Gold Stock Analyst puts the negative swing of the company's hedge book at $507 million. "This swing far offsets the net profits earned of $46 million in the first quarter of 2002 plus the $66 million in the third quarter of 2001 plus the $82 million in the fourth quarter of 2001. The net is a loss of $313 million."

"The sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at about $21 million an ounce," says Douglas Pollitt at Pollitt & Co. in Toronto. "Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative contracts) drop by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce, the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red." Gold prices this year have risen to $312 an ounce from $270 at the start of January

(WOW!!! Let's hear this again!!! Editor)

"Each $1 an ounce upward move in the gold price sees the mark-to-market (of Barrick's derivative contracts) DROP by about $21 million. At $350 an ounce, the mark-to-market would be over $1 billion in the red."

"Pollitt calculates the notional value of Barrick's spot-deferred contracts at 18 million ounces. "Add to this another 5 million in written call options, (which the company now calls 'variable priced sales contracts'), and, one way or another, the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"

Is this the company that so confidently hedged every years worth of production for almost 20 years?

"�the company is short about 23 million ounces of gold. This is a fantastic number and begs the question: Could Barrick cover even if they wanted to?"

Well. I am at a loss for words.

What more can I say?

Only that anyone still holding shares in this immoral corrupt golden Enron Style Derivatives Fire Trap is a complete IDIOT!!!

Summary

Between Barrick & AngloGold, Barrick is expendable, but NOT AngloGold. Within the political ownership of AngloGold rests some of the most important & powerful financial entities in the world. AngloGold represents their personal gold mine. Barrick's (the chump changers) job now in the world scheme is to take the heat for the gold price manipulation scheme & to die gracefully with the coming gold price explosion.

Within another 3 years (probably less than that), between AngloGold & Barrick, only one company will remain standing & it will NOT be Barrick!!!

AngloGold will continue & Barrick will fail. This will be a convenient timely circumstance because by this time gold will be firmly in an advancing bull market & the public will be crying out for blood for the one most responsible for the gold price manipulation scheme.

"Anglogold wants the gold price to go much higher to stave off Barrick. Barrick remains heavily hedged. A soaring gold price is no great shakes to Barrick and could even do the company in if their hedge book blows up. In addition, if AngloGold covers its hedges as fast as possible, it will add fuel to the growing gold-buying power and be a factor in moving the gold price higher. The more Anglogold covers forwards and the higher its share price goes, the more difficult it will be for Barrick to take over AngloGold. For Anglogold will get too expensive."

"It is only a matter of time before the gold derivative bomb goes off and sinks the evil cabal forces."

Meanwhile, Barrick Gold continues to stink up the place.

Readers, it is important to digest these occurrences so that you can look with confidence at a rising gold price & know where to place your investments.

Part of the reason I am taking the time to go over so carefully & repetitively this message is because there are still so many emails I receive from readers asking me if the run on gold stocks will continue or if they are oversold.

A few years ago Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, sent out a message to the world and investors in general that everything would be done to play down the gold price over the next few years.

Now, a new message equivalent to the one Greenspan gave then is being issued & sent out around the word to all investors.

That message given by the most powerful of market leaders is sending out a message that gold is free & will be moving higher.

BOBBY GODSELL: -- EVERYTHING is in place for a firmer price.

Again, "Better prospects for the gold price than we've had certainly since 1993, maybe even since 1987."

500 US DOLLAR PLUS GOLD PRICE HERE WE COME!!!

The dollar is beginning its long slow fall. I have written in earlier commentary & mentioned that through the pain of a wrecked US economy that Europe will shine brighter as a world power.

George Bush will go down in the history books as another Hoover. Bush's additional historical distinction will be as the president under whose watch the US gold disappeared.

"It has been said that the gradual closing of producer hedges is putting a floor under the gold price. Barrick's scramble for unhedged gold might attach rockets to the price." Bill Murphy 5-6-2002

A rising gold price will be the instrument used to calculate to what extent & degree the US economy becomes wrecked.

Golden Bear

(05/09/2002; 06:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75265)

Pizz (msg#: 75198) The War may be starting in earnest Keep the big picture in mind.

Very well said SIr,The key in this us vs them "crusade" as gunslinger Bush called it (wasn't that the Freudian slip of last year!). It will not be fought militarily however - why risk destroying your economy as well as your armed forces against the 800 pound gorilla, when you could just keep bying gold, knowing full well you'll drive up the price of bullion and slowly killing the enemy by a thousand cuts... one of those cuts will eventually be through the jugular, and the gorilla will go down gushing. Add a cut to a wrist (terrorist attack on american soil) just to accelerate the process if need be, and all this while increasing your wealth in the process....

Your later post (msg#: 75211) was perceptive also... the huge gaps before the open are usually done using futures.. to spike futures to that extent is no mean feat - your average Joe wasn't buying 100 lots yesterday morning.

All part of the game, and as you said so wisely, keeping the big picture in mind... Thanks.

Golden Bear

(05/09/2002; 06:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75266)

Rock (msg#: 75221)

You're so right. This morning on my way to work (down under), the lead news story was the powerful rallies overnight on Wall Street due to Cisco's positive earnings reports. Usually the market report is at the end of the bulletin.

It struck me immediately how powerful a hype message this was for the average investor - they'd think "wow, what a move, time to call my broker.... and in they go to get creamed by the next down move. Poor sods.

Cheers.

Waverider

(05/09/2002; 08:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75267)

Cisco casts a spell on the markets

http://globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/D,D/20020508/wmathmay8?hub=homeBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wmathmay8&date=20020508&archive=RTGAM&site=Front&ad_page_name=breakingnewsSnippit:
"Memo to investors: Cisco Systems is not the entire stock market, nor is it the entire U.S. economy. In fact, it isn't even a substantial part of either. In other words, just because Cisco had a half-decent quarter doesn't mean the U.S. economy is shifting into high gear. You wouldn't know that from looking at the markets Wednesday, however, because they were on a rocket ride � and the only fuel around was Cisco's report.

So was the market's response to Cisco a relief rally after weeks of gloom? Oversold conditions? Short-covering? [PPT?]Probably all of the above. But the most important question of all is whether it was just a 'head fake' or sucker rally � and on that front, the chances are pretty high that it was. What has changed compared with last week, when gloom was everywhere? Not much."

Waverider: GoldenBear - same here in Canuck land on the morning market report. Good to see someone at the Globe putting yesterday into perspective.

YGM

(05/09/2002; 08:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75268)

Canuck.....

Your Questions/Comments Yesterday.....Sorry for not giving more than a babbling answer to your two questions & commentary posed yesterday, but you left me in the dust with all I read. I can see you have an economists mind and might possibly be seeing things from a perspective gained over the last few years while the bubble was inflating. I am no economist nor do I understand the workings of such. This I believe....the Bubble is over!
This is what Greespan has known he had to accomplish for some time w/o putting SM's into crash mode....Gold has "NOT" even begun to have it's run....As for an alternative to the US dollar, well if one percieves that the US dollar is going to loose value whether intentionaly or by circumstance, then one would switch some dollars to PM's, Euro's, Dinars or maybe even Loonies. Just think repatriation on US dollars and how that would change the financial landscape for the US markets and investors....Think of the benefits to US producers with a lower US dollar....As for Banks reversing trends, well one who knows the history of Banks should realize they can be the most inventive and unpredictable of entities....Why they even close their doors and abandon those depositors who freely trust and give them the cash to be in business in the first place....Scotia in Argentina is a good recent example....No Canuck the highest powers want the bubble over, it's only the Fund managers and the Brokers handling the Trillions of Fed Bubble money floating around that want to keep the ship afloat....It ain't going to happen! The Banks can relieve rates all they want, they can issue Bonds til hell freezes over. The die is cast and they cast it with Greed! Remember 'North of 49'and his Banker Executive nieghbour? Remeber the comment he made to N 49? Is it happening already he asked! Well that was 3 years ago and now it is happening....I know a fellow who's father in law was a past CEO for Royal Bank, they both have said the only future was physical Gold/Silver as the system was then and now on the edge of Collapse/Restructuring....I know you've read most all the same info over the years as me, but I truly hope in the interest of a fellow Canadian you've read
http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htm

PS: Keep that AU/AG out of the so called Safety Deposit Boxes....History always repeats in one form or another....

YGM

(05/09/2002; 08:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75269)

Waverider.....

Cisco....You know if I was a wall st paper boy I'd be looking for that co like Cisco on a daily to weekly basis. Knowing that there's Billions of worried and homelss dollars looking for a temporary roost is all one needs to see in the bigger picture. In and out, in and out! Eventually all this cash will find a longer term home in PM's, but not before much of it evaporates back to the airy nothing it was created from in the first place....I'm possibly over simplistic but many are lost in the fog of the system! What people don't know or refuse to acknowledge is the simple fact the system may be on the verge of chrysalis....YGM

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2002; 09:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75270)

YGM

If I had time to read only one post today (for now, true), and one sentence in it, your "Eventually ..." below essentially sums up everything we've observed, and written here, over the years. On the run...

YGM

(05/09/2002; 09:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75271)

JPMC & Dinsa

From Mining Web Message Board.....Comment on Flap over gold derivative "firings"
Date 2002/05/09 Thu

Name Mark McCabe
Email Address ciudadhabana2000@yahoo.com
Subject

I ran the biggest gold hedging book for Chase right up until the merger with JPMorgan.
This is email correspondence from Bob Davis when I asked if Dinsa Mehta resigned. His response is below.
I'm sure u guys can work it out

Regards:

Mark McCabe.
....................................

MIXI,

Hoo yers gannin old son?

I'll reply more thoroughly another time. U still long gold...?....$311.00
trading my son.
I think 'resigned' is not quite the description some would use for the 'D'
man but a lot of changes going thru in Snr management.

Call you soon.

cheers...ta....errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...ye know...number one again...

YGM

(05/09/2002; 09:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75272)

Paul Van Eeden...Gold's Secular Bull Market........

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BB300315448?OpenDocumentPlus $400.00 p/oz Paul? Well that's a good start! Try 3 TIMES THAT in future years........YGM.

Old Yeller

(05/09/2002; 09:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75273)

Spotlight on the new Fed boys

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APNl6JxTRQmVybmFu
Boy,they lay it on pretty thick here about Greenspan's "inflation fighting" credentials.

Presided over the the biggest asset inflation binge
in recorded history,yet he's an inflation fighter?

Let's let this thing resolve itself first,the experiment is still ongoing.

Gandalf the White

(05/09/2002; 10:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75274)

<;-)

OK, SPOT, Time to start that new dance .. The NOON NY HOP !!
JUMP, SPOT
JUMP !!
<;-)

YGM

(05/09/2002; 10:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75275)

Very Worthy Repost.....From one of our Bretheren across the way....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020509/financial_malaysia_amcham_1.html Mahathir-Bush meeting, REAL purpose of meeting is to discuss the GOLD DINAR!
(Gr8AuAgGuy) May 09, 12:03

Just how concerned are the PTB about GOLD and GOLD backed financial instruments?

Isn't a new financial GOLD backed Islamic DINAR being created in Malaysia? IMVHO Mahathir is being summoned to find out how far along they are in creating the GOLD DINAR! Most likely Mahathir is going to be threatened with a quick trip to the wood shed if he doesn't delay or destroy GOLD DINAR plans.

The spin is: "Malaysia gives short shrift to militancy and deviancy and in the case of terrorism, one of our strongest supporters has been Malaysia," he said. (Yeah, Malaysia is a military dictatorship)

During his visit from May 13-15, Mahathir is due to make a landmark visit to the White House to meet Bush and will also hold talks with other top U.S. officials. (top US officials = the ones who can hurt you!)

Electrical and electronics account for over 60 percent of the total goods sold by Malaysia, of which about a fifth ends up in the United States." (The IT and Tech sectors are swirling in the sewage systems).

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020509/financial_malaysia_amcham_1.html

YGM

(05/09/2002; 10:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75276)

Mahethir Mohamed & Gold Dinar

http://www.tv3.com.my/news/nl/march2002/26_news1.htmlFor a little background...Link

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/09/2002; 11:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75277)

With gold you can live life like you MEAN it...

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

YGM

(05/09/2002; 12:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75278)

Watch For the Next Move of Brokerage Houses........

(After they re-position house accounts in PMs.......)As the PM stocks go higher in value , so too will the Miners IPO's and Stock Offerings go ballistic...As with the Dot Com craze the Brokerage Houses will be tripping over each other in their haste to gain commissions...Public offerings mean $$$$ in company coffers both by sales and participation and that means promotion of same....Hence companies like Morgan et al will be on the bandwagon driven by Goldbugs....Heck they may even hatch another BRE-X ...
....Like I say 'History Repeats' And we're at the party long before the Band...Watch and see if the spin doctors aren't yapping about Gold on CNBC 6 mo from now......YGM.

"GO GOLD, GO PHYSICAL, & GO GATA" & Goin for a Cerveza!

Aristotle

(05/09/2002; 12:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75279)

YGM, you old goat! You're (hypothetically) wealthy and you don't even know it!

Let's invite everybody to have a closer look at your comments from yesterday.

Hey everybody! Have a look at this hypothetical, and tell me what you see.

Do you see a man who is a simple $10 profit away from being a half-millionaire, or do you see a man who is truly wealthy?

Our most worthy Sir YGM said: "if I had 50,000 oz of Au and had a $10.00 profit I'd probably sell and forget all this financial crap and crime perpetrated by scumbag bankers...Kinda get on with what's left of my life @ age 53."

You know I luv ya, so don't take this wrong when I say (hypothetically, of course) "Good God, Man! What are you thinking?!" (Or maybe you were playing devil's advocate? If so, I missed it.)

Profits-schmawfits. No, seriously. In my mind, having the comfort and security of 50,000 ounces of Gold wholly-owned in your possession makes you a VERY wealthy man any way you slice it.

But let's boil it down to dollars, since that seems to be your affliction for the moment. If indeed Gold was just a trading vehicle for you (in this hypothetical,) buying low and selling higher (for $10 profit per ounce) would net you $half-a-mil. Not bad.

But profits or no, and keeping this in dollar terms (because those 50,000 ounces don't seem to impress you very much in their own terms,) that quantity of Gold currently represents $15 million in purchasing power. Most importantly, it's a tangible asset, like your land, that can't be destroyed overnight by a simple national policy change or loss of confidence in the banker's game.

You knew this.

Gold. Keep you some. --- Aristotle

YGM

(05/09/2002; 12:58:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75280)

Aristotle.....

From one ole Goat to Another :>)Lets just say there ain't no 50K oz and if there was I'd keep 49 of them and have a little rest in the sunshine....
But as for wealthy, well my health and that of my family is great and I'm keeping what little AU/AG I have set aside as per a simple fellow with simple needs I guess (hypotheticly) I'm wealthy.....Sure could stand a little more time on the Mojos River (Bolivia)tho.....Nothing like seeing that yellow in the Dredge Runs and no Yukon Brrrrrr Cold! One Cerveza and my daydreams head 4000 mi south :))

Regards....YGM.

TownCrier

(05/09/2002; 13:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75281)

Is this really what the "gold as money" folks want to see more of?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020509/markets_precious_5.htmlNEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - ...Some borrowing of 10-year gold suggested a producer was putting on a long-term hedge to lock in prices for gold reserves, one dealer said.
-----------

Bottom line: Gold as property is the better usage. As "property" its supply can't be inflated through the banking system. As "money" it can -- as we see here in this article.

R.

Rock

(05/09/2002; 14:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75282)

Yesterdays celebrations todays deliberations

Hate to say i said so but I pegged it right on the nose yesterday concerning the stock market. It couldn't even sustain for over a day, what a joke! Cisco's shoulders just arn't big enough to carry the weight of the entire sector. It almost looked like this dying market took one last big gasp of oxygen and appeared for a brief moment that it was going to get back up and fight but then it just fell back over like a dying man on an EKG machine that just went flat line.

Meanwhile on concerning the ME, the media is now reporting how Arafat said no more bombing in his arabic tongue, what wonderful great news did you hear that knights and ladies? I'm surprised the markets didn't soar to new heights since there don't appear to be no imminent sign of war now that Arafat made his grand speech. I think we can all sleep better now with those comforting words from the former pultzer prize winner of the PLO.

Cheers,

Rock

USAGOLD

(05/09/2002; 15:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75283)

Sierra Madre. . ."Brazil's Cardoso slams behaviour of investors. . ."///////////// ALL: Old Brazilian Gold Coins to be Offered

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020509/economy_brazil_cardoso_1.htmlWhat do you think of the theory making the rounds in the gold market that we may see the Domino Effect in Latin America -- Argentina, then Brazil, then Mexico? Just saw the reports about Cardozo complaining about Brazilian debt being downgraded.

"Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and ABN Amro advised clients to cut Brazilian debt in their portfolios. . ."

All: Soon as Randy get's the backroom work completed we will be offering some one-half ounce Brazilian coins from the 1890s. These are beautiful coins from Brazi's Republican period. There are only a handful available and we have never had anything like this before. I would suggest that anyone who bought the Uruguayan 5 Peso coins and the Argentinos, add these while you can. We will be offering sets of six coins, I believe it is, various dates in the 1890s. Some are scarcer than others but we will offer them all at the same price. The sets will carry a slight discount/encouragement for those with a collector bent who'd like to have all the dates we are offering. We will only have 20 of those so I suggest you act quickly. I think we all know by know how these things go. If its popular, it might only last a few days. Beyond the 20 sets (first-come, first served) you will be order from the hoard whatever date(s) you wish. I think you are going to like this offer.

So get ready. . . . .

Randy is working diligently behind the scenes to make ready for this interesting offer.

slingshot

(05/09/2002; 15:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75284)

Siege Engine

Time Is Running Out.The Lord of the Castle has burned the Midnight Oil with his Knights and has failed to comprise a viable battle plan.
All of strategies revolved in only the defense of his citidel and with the size of his garrison provided very little offensive capabilities.
The trebuchet has been effective as it relentlessly batters the wall below the tower.
It is morning and the first light of day begins to shine into the room and replaces the candlelight upon his maps.
Suddenly, there is an alarm for all to man the walls.
There is more excitement. As he ascends the stairs he can hear the comments of his men and he knowns fear when he hears it.

He looks out beyond the field and into the rising sun.
For a momment he is blinded but soon sees the open green field below and what now stands just in front of the treeline far away.

The Goldbugs have formed ranks. Three and four deep and the full lenght of the treeline. They are armed with shields and swords. Bows and maces. Standing shoulder to shoulder.
They begin to bang their shields and shout.
FREE GOLD, FREE GOLD, FREE GOLD.

The Lord of the castle turns and looks into the face of his Knight standing next to him.

Sierra Madre

(05/09/2002; 15:50:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75285)

"Domino effect" to affect Brazil and Mexico, after Argentina...

It seems to me that Mexico is in a special situation at the moment - oil is strong and that is a very important factor for the Mexican economy; so that would help contain the "contagion". Also, Mexico is next door to the U.S. and is being wooed by the Establishment. Everything is cozy and Mexicans are good boys, they do their homework and behave themselves. Good marks for them, good credit ratings for the nice little boys. All this is preparation for takeover, IMHO.

Argentina is left twisting in the wind. It's a matter of "triage". You know, when there is an accident, the medics look over the wounded and they sort them into groups: the dying are just left to die. No use wasting time and resources on them.

Scotiabank leaving Argentina, just closed its doors and said goodbye! This is without precedent, so far as I can see. These people really need silver desperately! But, not a single brain there to suggest it.

My wife says the people there are broken; not only broke, but broken. A human tragedy.

Brazil might cave in. When governments start blaming investors etc. you just know that something is going to happen. Of course, with paper money, what else but ANOTHER collapse? When will people learn??

Sierra

kludge

(05/09/2002; 16:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75286)

@Rock

Yes, it's a sad fact too that the price of gold tends to flourish in bad times. Peace and prosperity are bearish for gold. This, IMO, explains gold's recent rally. Sadly, it'll probably go higher once Israel responds to the latest suicide bombers. I was hoping to keep adding to the collection at less than $300 delivered - but it seems pretty obvious that many will lose much before we get back to those days again.

Golden Bear

(05/09/2002; 16:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75287)

kludge (msg#: 75286)

"Peace and prosperity are bearish for gold."Greetings Kludge,

the prosperity in your quote is illusory, built by decades of inflation of the money supply of countries around the world, fooling their populations that they are becoming wealthier year over year...until BAM! - Another Argentina occurs, leaving most with very little.

Nothing is bearish for the value of gold bullion, only paper gold, which is also part of the grand illusion.

Cheers.

Belgian

(05/09/2002; 16:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75288)

The Gold-Conglomerate and the TG's Architects.....

Got inspired by the Arctifox posting (Thanks Sir) on James E. Sinclair (Mister Gold) and Chris Thompson's (WGC) statements as outgoing CEO of Gold Fields :
The Gold conglomerate is suspecting the existance of Architects (builders) that will use/incorporate Gold as a building material, with new applications, into the coming *new* currency construction ! Chris Thompson wants to make it possible for *INVESTORS* to buy and hold (!!!) Physical Gold. You don't decide such a policy lightly without some assurance (probability) that it will be (remain) succesfull well into ther future. It is some evidence for a growing concensus on Gold's future, without to much rear-mirror looking. Miners with their paper-shares of risky underground gold want to create another kind of paper, representing more safe (?) aboveground refined Gold.
A first step to connect "Funds" (pools) more directly to liquid Physical as an *INVESTMENT* and not as a strictly currency hedging (speculative) instrument.

...WE NEED TO MAKE IT (GOLD) POSSIBLE FOR THEM (investment universe) TO OWN GOLD !!! (Thompson)

An old timer poster once said that Gold was/is NOT an *Investment* ! I still don't agree with it, and probably never will. Thompson seems to share that *investment* argument and will most probably succeed in bringing the message across. He (they) must feel the backing of the Architects !? And all this while the precious is so heavy for its humble price...smile with me Aristotle.

Canuck

(05/09/2002; 16:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75289)

@ YGM

Dear Sir,

I also wish to apologize to you (and anyone else reading my distorted rant yesterday).

I almost went beserk this morning and swung a load into tech stocks. I shook my head, walked from the PC and went to work. The power of sidelined money ('cash') at this moment in time is scarey. We saw a hint of the mountain of cash yesterday. Where (and when) will this money be deployed?

I don't remember North of 49's neighbour, please remind me. Can you elaborate on the R.B CEO?

Canuck

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2002; 17:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75290)

LeSin

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/vaughn051002.htmlThe Vaughn piece was great this morning -- good catch! All about the contending PTBs and how Barrick is set up to take the fall, while Anglogold goes on to carry the flag for the winning factions -- this is how these things grind out in other industries (and economic wars), so it rings true for the gold industry too. While our fortunes ride as the froth on the waves thrown out by these big tankers steaming by...

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2002; 17:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75291)

Antal Fekete: Revisionist View of the Great Depression

http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/Fekete050702.htmA must read. Could start up discussion of fundamental fundamentals, "like in the old days" around here. This guy is on to something -- I wonder if there's a critical response to his thoughts, which I have not read elsewhere. The implications for the present are, of course, for a Greater Depression as a reflection of a greater destruction of capital.

I'm halfway through; all I can think of off the top of my head is, if you have an annihilation of productive capital, you are left only with a certain collection of tangible assets, an uncertain ownership and debt structure, and a question about how to regain productivity.

An "activist" government is likely to repeat Roosevelt's errors, and keep things muffled. End up with a "mafia economy" like Russia's in the 90's. Sure would like to hear what is developing out of that.

YGM

(05/09/2002; 17:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75292)

Canuck....

Hi...Hey no apol'gs needed for anyone I can see! Sidelined money? Well others here (everyone) besides me could answer that better than I, but I feel in my gut that it's jumping in and out of anything that has a chance of even small moves. If the volume is big then they can shift out quickly. Hence the distortion we see when the SM's go up one day and down the next! Like a rabbit running from a fox and every hole he jumps down is crowded. I think smart money is also always patient money and has been moving to PMs for awhile and they've got the same befefits as those who tagged on the coat-tails of Gold Manipulation scam. That is they know the Cabal will dump all over the longs and shake out the weak hands repeatedly. Every time Gold & PM stocks move up they get the velvet hammmer and somebody gets cheap entry again...Just a vicious cycle! As for the N 49 over the fence conversation with the Banker exec nieghbour...Well that was heresay but from a rather good source and seemed very relevant and real at the time....When
North 49 asked him again days later to elaborate on the comment "Oh No is it happening already" he declined. This comment was made because Gold was having a run & GATA was just getting in full swing, and the Banker seemed to sense a calamity was going to happen and he'd known it would someday come.... Rather like the conversations I've had with the son in law of a long past CEO of R Bank Canada. He said his father in law has coached him for years to invest in PM's for the long haul and keep very little in Banks and paper....He told him that GATA was dead correct in their assumptions with respect to Gold Manipulation and the Bankers knew at some point the cat would be out of the bag.
I suggest you read "The Sting" (Mr Johnson's Letter to his son) if you can find it in the Gold-Eagle archives........
PS: I think my R B guy is in the know as he deals in 100's of tons of Gold....All I got was advice :>))

YGM

(05/09/2002; 17:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75293)

Canuck....The Sting.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/birch030498.htmlBTW...this letter has probably caused more controversy than most any article I've read.....Not withstanding Reg Howes and GATA papers......YGM.

YGM

(05/09/2002; 18:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75294)

"NEW"....Who Controls The Federal Reserve?...Part 1.

http://www.rense.com/general24/whocontrolsFED.htmEXCERPT:

Now that we know the Federal Reserve is a privately owned, for-profit corporation, a natural question would be: who OWNS this company? Peter Kershaw provides the answer in "Economic Solutions" where he lists the ten primary shareholders in the Federal Reserve banking system.

1) The Rothschild Family - London 2) The Rothschild Family - Berlin 3) The Lazard Brothers - Paris 4) Israel Seiff - Italy 5) Kuhn-Loeb Company - Germany 6) The Warburgs - Amsterdam 7) The Warburgs - Hamburg 8) Lehman Brothers - New York 9) Goldman & Sachs - New York 10) The Rockefeller Family - New York

Now I don't know about you, but something is terribly wrong with this situation. Namely, don't we live in AMERICA? If so, why are seven of the top ten stockholders located in FOREIGN countries? That's 70%! To further convey how screwed-up this system is, Jim Marrs provides the following data in his phenomenal book, "Rule By Secrecy." He says that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which undeniably controls the other eleven Federal Reserve branches, is essentially controlled by two financial institutions:

1) Chase-Manhattan (controlled by the Rockefellers) - 6,389,445 shares - 32.3%
2) Citbank - 4,051,851 shares - 20.5%

Thus, these two entities control nearly 53% of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 19:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75295)

CISCO'S EARNINGS REPORT VIEWED AS A SHELL GAME By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/47539.htm
Snippit:

May 9, 2002 -- SYNTHETIC leases come and they go, but they apparently don't leave a trace. In the world of pro forma earnings - which I believe is Latin for "companies can report whatever they want" - nothing can come between what a company says and what Wall Street wants to hear.

Black Blade: I brought up Cisco's "synthetic lease" issue before and I had thought about again when Cisco brought up their earnings "Home Run", but then I decided why should I be the "turd in the punch bowl". I also thought about the non-expensing of options. Whatever. They are not alone. Microsoft, Novell, and Oracle also has engaged in this shell game. But hey, who cares about "off-the-books" accounting anyway � just ask Enron.

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 19:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75296)

U.S. Economy: Number of Workers on Unemployment Rolls Swell

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNqW7xVAVS5TLiBF
Snippit:

Washington, May 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. worker claims for jobless benefits fell less than expected last week and the number of Americans collecting aid rose to a 19-year high, suggesting the labor market isn't improving as the economy recovers from recession.

The unemployment rate, which rose to 6 percent in April, a 7 1/2-year high, may climb as high as 6.5 percent in coming months as companies are slow to hire, Rupkey said. A labor market that shows few signs of improving helps explain why Federal Reserve policy makers this week left the overnight bank lending rate at a 40-year low of 1.75 percent, where it's been since December.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said job growth is critical to the recovery because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy. ``Perhaps most central to the outlook for consumer spending will be developments in the labor market,'' he told Congress last month.

Black Blade: Aside from there being no economic recovery, the "Bone Pile" is at recession levels. 19 years ago (1983) the US was mired in a very deep recession. Then too, Pres. Reagan extended unemployment benefits. The point that should be foremost in every ones minds is that today the data is massaged with various filters (such as "seasonality") that are a government scam designed to hide the God awful truth. The US propaganda arm � the Bureau of Labor Statistics engages in this same activity in calculating the CPI and PPI, among other government statistics. The BLS could put Arthur Andersen to shame. Just wait until the recently announced layoffs begin to occur.

YGM

(05/09/2002; 19:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75297)

Canuck....All...One Last Link & I'll Butt Out....

http://www.devvy.com/churchill_19991229.htmlThis is a keeper......"The Greatest Story Never Told"

Winston Churchill and the Crash of 1929.....

The more this stuff gets around the more folks will own Gold and Silver....The Banker Cabal hates transparency and the Web puts the light of day on anyones screen that takes the time to learn the truth....YGM

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 19:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75298)

Continuing claims at 19-year high - "Bone Pile" Files

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=dhtml&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B5ECF438D%2D93F7%2D4899%2D85F6%2D81B09E610331%7D
Import prices jump as dollar weakens, oil surges

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The number of American workers receiving state unemployment benefits rose by 61,000 to a 19-year high of 3.8 million in recent weeks, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Black Blade: A song for the BLS � "No Where To Run, No Where To Hide".

YGM

(05/09/2002; 19:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75299)

Devvy Kidd Article Index

http://www.devvy.com/money0.htmlHope somebody reads this stuff. Some here have for years but it should always be shown anew, for those who have not...YGM.

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 19:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75300)

IBM workers fear the axe

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/09/technology/ibm/index.htm
Employees union says layoffs expected to amount to as much as 10% of U.S. work force.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Workers at International Business Machines Corp. are bracing for layoffs that could affect as much as 10 percent of the company's U.S. work force, according to a representative of an IBM employees union. "People are getting very nervous inside IBM," said Lee Conrad, national coordinator for the Alliance@IBM, an affiliate of the Communications Workers of America representing about 4,000 IBM employees. "There's a real sense of foreboding," Conrad said.

Conrad said some IBM divisions, including its server and microelectronics divisions, already have begun quietly telling some employees to expect layoffs starting as early as next week. "We expect announcements to start coming next week and continuing for the next three weeks after that," Conrad said. "We're hearing anything up to about 10 percent across the board." Roughly 160,000 of IBM's global work force is based in the U.S.

Black Blade: We are looking at perhaps 16,000 marched off to the growing "Bone Pile". I brought this possibility up about IBM a few days ago. It finally has come. The earnings picture for IBM is � shall I say it? � "GRIM"

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2002; 19:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75301)

YGM == The Sting

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/birch030498.htmlI remember that one from back when we were first getting started -- makes more sense now to me -- sounds like someone else we know, who may even know some of the same people. Far-fetched as a plan to be kept secret, but maybe the vanity of some people just makes it "unthinkable" and easy to "hide" even if the action is right there under their noses.

Others know they can switch sides ("Ah, yes; our chalet at Gstaad!") when they need to; others may believe they were giving Americans a better life for awhile -- who can argue with "Good Times"? "It's Morning in America."

goldquest

(05/09/2002; 19:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75302)

Frantic Friday Approching

Gaza Strip errupts, Dow and Naz loses all of their gains made Wed.
Gold crawls out of the foxhole and continues to march. Gold closes at $316.00 + - .50

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 20:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75303)

Bush's master oil plan

http://japantoday.com/e/?content=comment&id=180
Snippit:

With so many new international crises erupting every day, it is hard to detect any clear forward direction to American U.S. foreign policy. At times, it appears that providing a response to the latest upheaval is about all that Washington can accomplish. But beneath the surface of day-to-day crisis management, one can see signs of an overarching plan for U.S. policy: a strategy of global oil acquisition.

In recent weeks, the Bush administration has taken bold steps to implement this strategy in several far-flung regions of the world. In the Caspian Sea basin � said to harbor the second biggest reservoir of untapped petroleum after the Persian Gulf � the United States is building new military bases and providing training to local defense forces. In Colombia, U.S.-equipped government forces will soon be guarding the Occidental Petroleum Company's Cano Limon oil pipeline. And in Venezuela � America's third largest supplier of oil � U.S. embassy personnel reportedly met with leaders of an abortive coup against President Hugo Chavez.

But it is also true that the areas that are garnering the greatest degree of attention from Washington � the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin, and the Andean region � are also areas that figure prominently in the administration's long-term energy strategy. The aim of this strategy is simple: to procure as much of the world's oil for ravenous U.S. markets as possible. With domestic U.S. production facing progressive decline and national consumption rising with every passing day, the United States must obtain more and more of its oil from abroad.

Black Blade: The major point is that the US is running out of "cheap energy" that is easy to get and abundant in supply. The need for energy to fuel the US economy is critical and as described in the article we will use military force at all costs to get it. Without an adequate supply of energy, the US is just another Third World country.

Nomad

(05/09/2002; 20:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75304)

Tax Collections Down and Down and Down ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/09/business/09CND-TAX.html

ASHINGTON, May 9 � The Congressional Budget Office said today that tax receipts through April were $75 billion below its projections, insuring that the federal budget deficit this year will be far bigger than anticipated.

Confirming preliminary figures made public by government officials several weeks ago, the budget office said receipts were $60 billion lower than projected just in April, the month in which revenues typically surge as individuals file their income tax returns.

The shortfall reflected the downturn in the economy last year, especially after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Economists said the problem appeared to stem in particular from the lackluster stock market, which generated little in the way of capital gains and depressed compensation among people who are paid partly with stock options.

Before the shortfall became apparent, the budget office had been projecting a deficit of $46 billion for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30. A $75 billion shortfall would bring the deficit to $121 billion. The total federal budget this year is about $2.1 trillion.

But the deficit is likely to be even bigger, perhaps by as much as $150 billion, by the time the government closes its books on the year, economists said.

EagleOne

(05/09/2002; 21:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75305)

Fifty seven years ago

http://www.lodz.pdi.net/pigulki/issue19/p19sikorski.htmlDo any of our world-wide posters remember the anniversary of V-E day? I propose that few here, if any, would be collecting gold if Nazi Germany had won the war and if the United States had not rebuilt Europe through the Marshall Plan. US bashers sometime need to be reminded to be thankful for their very existance. End of rant. I will not comment further or reply to dissenters.

YGM

(05/09/2002; 21:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75306)

Mr. Gresham...

Yes I agree wholeheartedly, it does seem much more relative with what we now see going on ie: Japan etc. I had to re-read myself as it's been a couple years since last read.
Yes Vanity and narrow mindedness make their mission much too easy. It does sound like a couple fellows we know :>)
It sure reinforced my belief and perception of other info I've rec'd.....It is still not easy to believe or comprehend even after all these years of reinforcement at many levels.....As FOA likes to say..."Interesting Times We Live In, Yes"....We trudge on & "PERSEVERE" together!

YGM

(05/09/2002; 21:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75307)

EagleOne...

Speaking for myself only...I have the greatest respect for the men & women of the US armed forces....I learned from my father the reality of what the USA stood for and what a world we'd have had if not for the tenacity, courage and lives lost by them. I think one must not confuse criticism of US monetary policy with our love of the greatest free nation the world has ever seen....I'll stand up for an honest American anyday, anywhere!...Regards & Good to see you here...You remind me of an old friend at Gold Eagle...(goArmy)....YGM.

JCTex

(05/09/2002; 21:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75308)

YGM (05/09/02; 18:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75294)

I won't tell anybody what else is on that site, if you won't. Michael might jerk our privileges, here, if he finds out.

At best, he might make us wear tinfoil helmets when we post here.

If the tax-paying public ever gets off its dead bu## and figures this Federal Reserve thing out, they will revolt. I hope I live long enough to see it. It's deserved.

Black Blade

(05/09/2002; 22:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75309)

May Department Stores to Lay Off 1,200 Kaufmann's Employees

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020509/200205091230000642_1.html
PITTSBURGH -- May Department Stores Co . (MAY) will lay off 1,200 employees at its Kaufmann's stores as part of the recent consolidation of Kaufmann's and Filene's stores.

Black Blade: The ones who are left will be more "productive". I guess next month's productivity data will improve. 1,200 off to the growing "Bone Pile".

Pizz

(05/09/2002; 22:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75310)

Confirmation of the coming Storm

Or when the short term hype over the last 9 month causes more pain and suffering than prudence, truth, and intelligent management could have done a meer year ago.

A story:

A short 9 months ago(prior to 911) a new and somewhat controversial CFO sat in board meeting and advised the stockholders that in his opinion, the 20 year expansion that their industry had been priviledged to participate within, was coming to an end.

The advice given was to consolidate, shore up cash resources, cut marketing expenses, and forego the expansion plans currently on the agenda. The major stockholders were all successful marketing types, more worried about their tax bite resulting from an excessive amount of short term debt accumulated over the past 20 years that was returning a compounded 5% annual return. The businesses had been financed with short term debt rather than capital, and all profits had been rolled into more entities, and more short term debt, and more profits up to that time.

Needless to say, the standard media/economic hype we (still)listen to everyday was thrown back at this CFO, and being new, his career at that time was challenged to say the least, and his advice was treated as as something less than the little boy who cried "wolf".

As September rolled around, business was flat to declining, but with The FED having lowered interest rates aggressivly all year, the turnaround was just around the corner (right!). The stockholders knew cash flow had deterioriated, but not to worry, the FED induced recovery was just around the corner. Besides, even though sales were down, interest on the short term debt was so low, that inventories were being increased in anticipation of the boom to come.

Then 911. No problem the stockholders said, the FED is taking care of us, and it's short term. Besides, so what if we go to war, war time economies are bullish - where private industry slows, the government will pick up the pace. What? Stop the expansion and take a loss as the CFO recommends? If we do that, we won't be able to meet our current expectations for 2003. What, we have a cash flow problem? Don't worry, it's there if we need it. What? You say we need capital rather than more short term debt? We haven't for the last 20 years, you'll just have to get along with what you have and we can always borrow more.

Well, now it's a short 6 months later, and the stockholders are now looking at their cash position, their exponetially increasing losses, a refinancing program that took 3 months to put together, and the cash generated from the refinance which will be burned within the next four months.

Their current cure? Cut administrative expense 30% which will have about the same net effect as losing 99 dollars instead of $100. But the good news? The CFO will not be able to function, and the financial reporting will deteriorate to the point that they will be able to plug their own numbers into the financial statements in a vain attempt to keep their financing lines intact (with a little Enron type accounting).
_______________________________________

Think the above is fiction and it's happening world wide? Think again. I'm as bout as close to this CFO as you can possibly get, all I have to do is look in the mirror.

Pizz

Pizz

(05/09/2002; 22:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75311)

Correction to last post

Insert "not" before "happening" in the last paragraph.

Pizz

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2002; 22:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75312)

Pizz!!!

http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/Fekete050702.htmYOU'RE the guy! So much of what you arrive at comes from common-sense (and personal experience in) accounting -- look at the Antal Fekete link and see if he's on track with the "Law of Assets" and "Law of Liabilities", if there IS a silent plundering of productive assets by balance sheet transfers as interest rates fall (artificially via Fed monetizing, and gold prohibition or inhibition)...

Horatio

(05/09/2002; 22:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75313)

Barrick & Anglo

I posted here about a year ago that hedgeing was a plot by S.A.mines to get assets out of S.Africa.The idea was to borrow gold from central banks ,give them a mortgage on the mines assets.Then sell the borrowed gold and transfer the cash out of the country to avoid confiscation from the Marxist S.African politicans.The confiscators would get the mines alright,but 10 years of future production would belong to the bank!A brilliant ploy!!My theory was when they got all they could get ,hedging would be over!!
Here's the final part of the plot....Barrick merges with Anglo,Anglo transfers real assets to Canada...Barrick transfers hedges to S.Africa and spins off that division back to S.Africa for the final coup ...The time is near....

Waverider

(05/09/2002; 22:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75314)

Japan's rating wars: Whose default is it?

http://www.atimes.com/japan-econ/DE09Dh01.htmlSnippit:
"It's time to give Japan a break on falling sovereign ratings - like maybe another decade, to be fair - and give the lousy economy opportunity to right itself. And to really square things, just roll the ratings back up to AAA, where the world's second largest (and least likely to default) economy belongs; not surfing rat-bottom in the pile of Group of Seven industrial countries.

That is just about the gist of the message the Japanese government sent in what appear to be unprecedented letters to the top three international rating agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings - just before Japan's Golden Week holidays began in late April."

Waverider: A good article on the consequences of another downgrade of Japanese government bonds. Moody's is expected to downgrade to single-A as early as next week, putting Japan on the same level as Hungary, Malaysia and Botswana.

Pizz

(05/09/2002; 23:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75315)

Mr. Gresham

Re: The Fekete link.

I've read this before, it's extremely long, confusing, and has the tendencies to mix a lot of apples and oranges together. It has some merit, but I really question the practicality of the message. I'll try to give it some thought this weekend and summarize, but keep in mind, it may be an accountant(s) that finally bring our current financial world to it's end, but it will only be by showing that the emporer really has no clothes. (Typing and spelling are really a _____ when your mad and a few scotches into the wind) Cash is what kills commerce, and the only reason Enron failed was their ability to keep borrowing was severly curtailed.

I'm probably rambling, so I better read some light stuff and get off the keyboard.

Pizz

YGM

(05/09/2002; 23:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75316)

JCTex (05/09/02; 21:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 75308)

I Still Have my Tin Hat.....Curious @ GE Forum gave me one years ago....I wear it when I go to various sites looking for Gold among Pyrites...
(grin) It keeps the Alien Bankers from reading my mind and
deflects brain pulse weapons quite well....Tinfoil works also, but hammered Gold is best.....YGM :>)

Mr Gresham

(05/10/2002; 00:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75318)

Pizz

Ok, well, I hadn't guessed if you had -- this seems a new version, but contains the same "cause of Depression" from a month or two ago.

The stringent requirement that all assets be booked at least favorable of cost or market, as with liabilities does give room for some legit fudging methinks, as you're allowing for a dissolution that will likely not happen before many profitable years.

The idea of lower rates raising the liability of existing debt -- only if you have to buy it back at market in the interim(?) does it hurt -- you redeem at maturity at face, or some are even callable. Or they re-fi, as done today. Performing debt, never expected in repayment.

But the idea of giving the bond speculators a run with the national checkbook, new ground, no?

More thoughts, but I'm off to Z-land, too...

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 03:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75319)

Gold Higher, Oil Higher, and USD Getting Hammered

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is higher this morning (btw - look at the PM lease rates), oil is recovering toward $28/bbl, and the USD is getting hammered while all major currencies are rising.

Also in the news - Boeing is under investigation for "cooking the books". Yep - another accounting scandal is breaking this morning.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 03:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75320)

Lease Rates

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
PM Lease rates are all up across the board. Pt is still at high levels - mostly due to there being very little delivery out of Russia, depleted Russian stockpiles and some occasional labor problems in SA.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 03:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75321)

Red Around The World

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Markets everywhere are in the red. US futures are mixed so far. Actually, a slightly positive market futures at the open has been negative for the day. There is no positive news to trade on so far and the outlook for the US economy is "GRIM".

As always - get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash stash for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods program. In short - prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade

Operative

(05/10/2002; 03:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75322)

US Treasury Secretary Heads to Africa

http://www.insightmag.com/news/251359.htmlSecretary is "concerned" about poverty in the region.
This article is a prime example of government doublespeak.
Note to all in the region: Run, Hide your GOLD!

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 03:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75323)

IBM to Lay Off Up to 8,000

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020510/tech_ibm_report_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - IBM Inc. plans to lay off as many as 8,000 workers, or 2.5 percent of its worldwide staff, as the leading computer maker battles a slump in technology spending, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Friday.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.

Also, just out in the news. The mailbox bomber said that see was trying to make a "smiley face" on the map (bombing pattern). There you go people � and you thought they only come out at night.

Operative

(05/10/2002; 03:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75324)

Can't Wait To See The Wall Street Spinmiesters Dance To This

AOLTIMEWARNER BONDS
REDUCED TO JUST ABOVE JUNK

(Headliner from Drudge this AM)

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 03:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75325)

Dollar Struggles Again Pre-Wall Street

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020510/markets_forex_1.html
By Natsuko Waki

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar came back under pressure across the board on Friday after a fall on Wall Street, although its losses against the yen were held in check by talk of an imminent credit rating downgrade for Japan.

Black Blade: There has been a rumor floating around the last couple of weeks that Japanese debt will be downgraded a couple of notches. Some speculation is that Japanese debt is no better than "Junk". Gold buying should still be strong and any significant downgrade will likely stir up more Japanese Gold buying.

Operative

(05/10/2002; 03:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75326)

Now Here is Something you don't often see...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/cgi-bin/regionalind.cgiAll Regional Indices Bleeding RED. Looks like another Malox day for the street.

LeSin

(05/10/2002; 05:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75327)

Russian Oil Most Tempting - Cheap In The Beginning - Then Bang! The Bear Will Demand Euro Payment

http://www.russianobserver.com/economics/article/15317.html
Russia's new role: "Stable Source" for Western World's Oil
Ocean pipeline plan "for gas to Japan"

by Michael Stedman
issued on 05.07.2002 (MST)

[printable version]

Energy ministers of the G8 industrial nations have confirmed "Russia's new role as a major source of stable energy for Western economies in the future," a report said yesterday (Monday) after they met in Detroit.

Russia's envoy, Energy Minister Igor Yusufov, used the forum to confirm the state was keen and set to see the industry's activities upgraded, Moscow analysts noted in a report saying the minister said the government sought to encourage Western investment in the sector to boost production.

This would also help develop export markets for crude supplies as well as higher-earning value-added oil products, he was quoted as saying. Yusufov's comments give further substance to remarks already on record from the minister that Russia sought expanded refining capacity to produce multiple products sheltering it from swings in an unpredictable market for crude.

This has already led to reportedly dramatic increases in fuel oil, diesel and gasoline exports to European markets.

A research note on the Detroit meeting from Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog quoted reports saying Yusufov believed the United States could become a "partner allocating considerable financing to the energy sector of the Russian economy."

Analysts also noted comments that the minister had called on the European Union to increase its own investment spending in the Russian energy sector to ensure growth and stability of supply.

Several recent reports have referred to new moves under way to develop Russia's oil industry, pursuing what observers believe is its goal of becoming the global industry's giant, surpassing even Saudi Arabia's paramount position.

Russia's February move to establish a working group including leaders of the country's top oil companies has geared up the drive to address structural problems, according to observers from respected U.S. analytical think-tank Stratfor.com.

Acquisitions, infrastructure upgrades and new field development in northwest Russia, Siberia, Central Asia, the Balkans and Central Europe were powering the push ahead, they said.

Further news now from the Detroit meeting said that to cut transportation costs, Russia had plans to build new deepwater terminals and ports on the shores of the northerly Barents Sea.

And reports attributed to the newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun added that Russia would ask Japan to join it in a major natural gas pipeline project linking Japan and a Russian city.

The plan was unveiled, Troika Dialog said, when the Russian energy minister met Japanese Economics Minister Takeo Hiranuma in Detroit. The project is said to entail transporting natural gas from Nakhodka, facing the Sea of Japan, by way of sea-floor pipelines.

Other moves analyzed by Stratfor a few days ago said Russia and Croatia had now agreed to link up two of their oil transport networks, increasing Russian oil companies' export capacity and boosting Russia's economic presence in the Balkans.

The two state-owned transport firms Transneft and JANAF plan to join together their Druzhba and Adria networks in what was seen as a multiple coup for Moscow, a commentary said.

This would mean an almost wholesale switch for Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia and Yugoslavia from Middle Eastern to Russian oil supplies. Total demand of around 250,000 barrels a day was set to increase quickly as the states recovered from the Balkan wars and lined up for European Union membership, the analysts said.

Russian producers would win permanent access to the Adriatic Sea through the Croatian port of Omisalj, a deepwater harbour capable of supporting tankers larger than those at anchor in any Russian port.

"Washington has dropped its quiet opposition to Russian export routes, opening a number of doors to Russian companies," Stratfor observed.

"Since Russian oil can compete on the U.S. market only when delivered in supertanker-sized quantities, the Adria-Druzhba linkage raises the possibility of Russia directly supplying the United States," its commentary said.

RobotGuy

(05/10/2002; 07:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75328)

Middle East and Stock Market Cheerleaders.

I wonder wonder wonder, what we're going to blame today's wall street calamities on. There is no longer a standoff at the church of the nativity, no surprise bombings anywhere, no surprising negative economic tragedies,.... What are the cheerleaders going to blame today on, if there's no global catastrophe? Will we finally accept that we are indeed not in a recovering market? In the 'positive' news, we have had record sign-ups for internet stock trading companies for the month of April. Great, more suckers for the sucker rallies! Poor souls. Looks like we might see some yellow action today.

Surfs up!!

Cheers!

Rock

(05/10/2002; 07:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75329)

Robotguy

What Excuse for the Market's decline with no major news!You forgot one Robotguy, anthrax at the Fed, oh but those were false positives. After all we don't want the stock market to react too violently.

Cheers,
Rock

Rock

(05/10/2002; 07:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75330)

More Lies Revealed on CNBC, home of the Wall Street Cheerleaders

Clip: Special Report
Cramer's Troubles Could Get Worse
Victoria Murphy, 05.09.02, 2:33 PM ET

NEW YORK - Loudmouth CNBC commentator James Cramer has one more reason to yell: His nemesis, disgruntled former employee Nicholas Maier, is turning out to be a bigger thorn in Cramer's side than we predicted.

In April, Forbes.com broke the news that Maier, 33, who used to be a trader at Cramer's hedge fund, had been feeding information to the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission about Cramer & Co.'s allocations of initial public offerings from Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ). The SEC is conducting an investigation into the way investment banks apportioned IPO shares to clients during the height of the bull market.

Now it turns out that Maier may have also persuaded the office of the U.S. attorney for the eastern district of New York to look into Cramer's trading. Maier boasts that, in March, he spoke with the government and handed over the transcript of his taped interview with another former trader at the hedge fund. The interview was conducted as part of his research for his book, Trading With The Enemy, a tell-all about Maier's days at the raucous Cramer & Co. trading desk.

Cramer's lawyer, Eric Seiler, says that his client "is not under investigation by any U.S. attorney on any subject." Linda Lacewell, an assistant U.S. attorney, would not comment either way as to the possibility of an investigation into Cramer. But the trader in the transcript, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, has confirmed that he has since been interviewed by lawyers in the U.S. attorney's office.

The transcript includes some eyebrow-raising anecdotes relating to Cramer's cozy relationship with CNBC television personalities Maria Bartiromo, David Faber and Mark Haines. Since leaving his hedge fund, Cramer has joined the network as co-host of the nightly CNBC yakfest, America Now. He also frequently cavorts with Haines and Faber on its morning show, Squawk Box.

In some instances, according to the taped interview, Cramer would call the anchors with a possible news lead on a company after he had already established a position in that firm. Says the trader in the taped interview: "Before he'd call Maria maybe we'd buy five or ten thousand shares of something. You know, the name that he was about to mention. He would position the firm so that when it did come out, it would be the positive or negative short or long, depending on, you know, what information he gave."

The CNBC relationship allegedly worked both ways, with Cramer making trades based on information he gleaned from the on-air talent. One tale that came up during the trader's interview with assistant U.S. attorneys involved profit made on Salomon Inc. just before an announcement that the investment bank was being bought by Travelers Group in September 1997. The trader recalls Cramer saying, "That's one for Faber."

A CNBC spokeswoman denies any wrongdoing and says the network has not been contacted by any legal authorities and has no knowledge of any investigation into the network or its anchors' actions. "CNBC has the highest journalistic standards in the business. David Faber, Maria Bartiromo and Mark Haines have the utmost integrity and any allegations otherwise are completely without merit," says Amy Zelvin.

Cramer was too busy to be interviewed by Forbes.com today. In an earlier e-mail, he dismissed Maier's incessant attacks this way: "As someone who had a great record that was made from years of working harder than just about everyone, I find the whole thing insulting."

Maier's decision to go public with this latest tidbit may have much to do with his need to bolster his own credibility. His book came under fire when its publisher, HarperCollins, acknowledged that three pages contained false assertions that Cramer traded on inside information about hard drive maker Western Digital. "I regret the error, but it was simply that we were investigated regarding a different stock," says Maier. He also concedes that his book has sold poorly, a fate that is unlikely to befall the glib and popular magazine writer who used to be his boss. This week Cramer is launching a tour promoting Confessions of a Street Addict, his confessional about what went wrong at his once-highflying Web publisher TheStreet.com.

Cheers fellow goldbugs are long awaited days are here!

Rock

RobotGuy

(05/10/2002; 07:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75331)

Black Blade provided us with this link some time ago

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2 Looks like there's quite a bit of red out there, that's probably what we're going to use for today's excuse.

Cheers!

RobotGuy

(05/10/2002; 07:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75332)

Hey Rock! Thank-you for that clipping, it strengthens how I feel about cheerleaders.

Cheers!

R Powell

(05/10/2002; 07:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75333)

Options expiration day

Today is expiration day for the June gold and silver options. In the past there has been a recurring pattern of metals' prices gravitating towards prices reflecting multiples of $5.00 such as 280, 285, 290, 300 etc. This may have been co-incidence or it may have been very short term manipulation by the big money options' writers.
Perhaps, as many are now saying, if the gold market has been "freed" we'll no longer see this pattern. Will POG close today near $310 or even $305 to minimize call option payouts? How have the shorts been unwinding hedges? Have they simply bought back that which was sold or have they limited or offset loses with long calls? Have the miners and other big shorts (bullion bankers) been buying calls so that POG close on expiration day no longer concerns them?
The last few months have repeatedly amazed me with POG bouncing up quickly after every downturn. This has been a joy to behold. There appears to be tremendous strength just under whatever level POG closes at. New longs or fewer shorts? The open interest increase would indicate new long positions. If this trend continues the weak investment shorts will disappear leaving only those who actually possess physical as potential sellers. I don't think we have reached this point yet but it will happen if POG moves up substantially. I'm guessing that any initial explosive move upward will result more from a lack of sellers than from a herd of buyers. The herd will arrive later.
Isn't this fun! Any thoughts?
Rich

Jimbo

(05/10/2002; 08:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75334)

Flooding the market?

Matt Krantz in today's USA Today ("Gold rush could signal trouble") makes some statements that seem ill-conceived. One in particular bothers me:

"So should you buy gold? Not necessarily. For one thing, if the dollar stabilizes, the gold rally could peter out, Johnson says. Also, if gold continues to soar, companies can tap new mines and flood gold onto the market, which could bring prices back down."

First, I don't see the dollar stabilizing for quite some time. Second, it doesn't seem logical that gold companies would "flood gold onto the market," as he states. After all, wouldn't it make more sense for these companies to control the gold supply and keep prices high?

Does my logic make sense, or are Krantz' arguments sound?

Pizz

(05/10/2002; 08:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75335)

Mr. Gresham

Agree with bond speculators and their ability to work the system. Aritrage has been a money maker for shrewed sophisticated operators ever since high speed computers - about 15 years. Greenspan likes to think of it as market efficiencies, but I see it as no different than a bank employee who clips mathmatical rounding variances (one side only) and deposits them into his own account.

Nice thing about market efficiencies, they tend to redistribute capital quite effectively, but the trick is to find where the capital has been going. My gut tells me to imagine all fiat and digital currencies, paper derivitives, etc. as smoke in the air and that there is this big machine out there slowly sucking it in. The output of this machine is gold, and it's being deposited in quantity into a lot of very deep dark basements.

Time will tell, but time is getting short. Going to be one wild ride very shortly. We all have a ticket on the biggest rollercoaster ride anyone can possibly imagine. Too bad no one is telling the masses that they have to bring their own seatbelts and probably need some heavy metal to hold them down (smile).

Off to the saltmines.

Pizz

kludge

(05/10/2002; 08:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75336)

RE:"Gold rush could signal trouble"?

I think Mr. Krantz has that backwards.

Golden Bear

(05/10/2002; 08:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75337)

Jimbo (msg#: 75334) Flooding the market?

Don't let this kind of two-bit analysis distract you from the big picture. No matter whether the US dollar is going up or down, bullion is doing its own dance. Compare charts of spot vs dollar since september - no obvious inverse correlation.

The dollar will head lower when foreigners are pulling their money out of the US. But the money going into gold currently is not necessarily money that has been pulled from US.

Keep your eye on the golden ball, that's where the big money has been going, and by the looks of things, will continue for quite a while...

As for new mine production, is this clown suggesting that gold producers can bring new production online tomorrow, or maybe next week? I don't think so.

Cheers.

YGM

(05/10/2002; 08:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75338)

MIDAS Bulletin.....

Rats Jumping Sinking Ship......YGM.Big option writer UBS Warburg has been buying physical gold
in the cash market. JP Morgan Chase's derivative
department is also a buyer. That should be an explosive
mix!!!!

YGM

(05/10/2002; 08:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75339)

Futures & Currencies....

Could be a 3-4 $ up day for AU..All currencies up against Dollar....June /02 PMs all up except Plat......

YGM

(05/10/2002; 08:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75340)

Jay Taylor Report........"Excellent Take" "As Usual!"

http://www.goldcentral.com/qry/backgroundstories.taf?_function=detail&NEWS_uid1=5855EXCERPT:

That in a nutshell is why I believe Ian Gordon and Ron Gilchrist are exactly right in calling for a major depression and a gut wrenching deflation in America, the likes of which we have not seen since the 1930's. And I think signs are indicating David Tice was right to suspect the first real signs of big trouble for the U.S. economy will become visible when the dollar begins to tank. The spoiled rotten 60's generation (my generation), which took over the White House with Bill Clinton in the early 1990's, continues to live their adult lives as they lived youthful years. Live for today and to hell with the future. Don't worry about personal responsibility. Let the government take care of you and your family and its problems. Most folks never stop to think that attitude might result in declining levels of freedom.

But now the time has come when I'm afraid we are about to pay for the excesses of our past. As foreigners understand they have been deceived by market interventions and corporate lies and distortions, the reaction is not likely to be kind to America. We may now be witnessing the first glimmer of a transformation out of the dollar and into other currencies and gold.

Siochain

(05/10/2002; 09:05:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75341)

Big Gold Buying

Midas/Cafe Gold Bulletin

"Big option writer UBS Warburg has been buying physical gold
in the cash market. JP Morgan Chase's derivative
department is also a buyer. That should be an explosive
mix!!!!"

JCTex

(05/10/2002; 09:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75342)

YGM (05/09/02; 23:05:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 75316)

"...keeps the Alien Bankers from reading my mind..." - been lalughing at that one all morning.

Isn't it a shame that we have to go to all sorts of places looking for news that hasn't been doctored? When the crash comes, the real story will be how the press lied to the public all these years.

Siochain

(05/10/2002; 09:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75343)

YGM

Sorry for the duplicate...you're are fast on the draw...so let's hope the second post doubles the buying...Cheers!

Nomad

(05/10/2002; 10:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75344)

Deflation City ...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-05-10-inflation.htm
Snippit :

WASHINGTON � U.S. inflation has limboed to such a low level that a handful of economists think it may be getting too low. Some even say the Federal Reserve may keep rates where they are for a while to foster price pressures � unheard of just a few years ago.

"For the first time in my lifetime I can say that the Fed does not want the inflation rate to go any lower," former Fed governor Lyle Gramley, 75, says.

Pizz

(05/10/2002; 10:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75345)

R Powell/Mr. Gresham/All

Agree with your thoughts regarding multiples of $5. Strike prices are where the wars are fought.

Now, as far as the big boys playing big games? Mr. Gresham has me thinking on bonds, balance sheets, and capital. I commented earlier this morning on where the balance sheet capital, or capital in general may be drained off by manipulation. This can be gold, fiat, etc.

Rich, you're watching the paper PM markets for signs on expiration today, but I'm going to comment on the paper SM's and futures, because I'm watching them for signs. Next week is SM options expiration and I'm watching JPM thrashing around.

Now, we have an idea that JPM may be getting out of the derivitives business, at least to a certain extent. We also have all kinds of rumors about them. If JPM needs a hit to keep earnings up, and I have to think their bond portfolio may be suffering a bit right along with their gold position. Now, what piggy bank will they rob? Lets make a case for the SM funds - the sheeple's invested money.

According to a floor trader interviewed on WebFn, JPM was a HUGE buyer of S&P futures on the SM spike up earlier this week. He also speculated that they might also be heavy buyers of stocks themselves. This may be partially right, but I think they went heavy short on the stocks at or near the top of the rally, but still long the futures. Why? We had no follow thru to the rally and that's indicitive of distribution and big money shorting at the top.

Now, if JPM went huge long on the futures, someone sold. Here's were the funds step in and write calls or sell futures (their portfolio covers them) for short term income.
If this is the case, the unwinding of the futures positions that take place during option expiration week will have a major downward bias. Right now JPM and or others COULD be short stocks and long the futures. When they roll out of the futures next week, their short position will become very profitable, and is also how capital is drained out of our SM into the major banks. You gotta be a big, big player to make this work. (Is it a wonder why Greenspan likes the derivitives markets?)

Now, where will the capital go? I have a hunch some of it will be used to cover the problems in someone's gold derivitive department. Up, up and away.

Rich, does this kind of senario fit the gold market in reverse? My feelings say yes.

Pizz

RobotGuy

(05/10/2002; 10:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75346)

Sir Gandalf

Thou shouldst be calling our friend spike!

Cheers!

sector

(05/10/2002; 11:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75347)

$311.75...Mighty Close to closing time to be going up that high.

The kind of action one would expect if the cabal were "capitulating" on the $310 strikeeom

YGM

(05/10/2002; 12:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75348)

Excerpt from Jay Taylors Report...James Turks..."Fear Index"

This is one winter I'd 'Welcome'.........ygm
If, as the Kondratieff winter unfolds, we suffered just a moderate amount of anxiety over the dollar as happened during the last Kondratieff summer, we might reasonably expect a nine fold rise above the current price of gold to $2,800/oz. If on the other hand, during the impending Kondratieff winter, the ratio moved up toward 30 times as it did in last Kondratieff winter, simple arithmetic takes us to a price of $9,360/oz.

*NO DROOLING ON THE KEYBOARD PEOPLE!!.............

YGM

(05/10/2002; 12:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75349)

Japan To Send Gold Soaring....Stewart Bailey & Peter Gonnella Apr 17/02

http://www.goldcentral.com/qry/backgroundstories.taf?_function=detail&NEWS_uid1=5850I missed this report but if it's a repost for some it's a reinforcement for others.....Sorry if it's old news!....
Still good reading none the less....Makes the 'Sting' seem ever more real when we focus on the Dollar and Japan! IMO..

The CoinGuy

(05/10/2002; 12:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75350)

Those Gold Locks of hair must be seeping into his brain

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6DF826ED-429D-4732-AA49-128747DD5497}I've noticed Thom has been increasingly bearish over the last few months, but it's starting to look like he's been reading the Trail...

Good Weekend to all,

The (Physical) CoinGuy

Mr Gresham

(05/10/2002; 12:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75351)

Calandra

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B6DF826ED%2D429D%2D4732%2DAA49%2D128747DD5497%7DHe's bubbling over today... (on the run)

YGM

(05/10/2002; 12:40:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75352)

Mr. Gresham.....You're Here...

I've Been Saving these for you.....Re: your feelings on "Far Fetched Plans" and peoples Vanity keeping them from questioning "The Unthinkable"...........

***Three Quotes I keep on my desk top for a constant reminder of keeping an open & questioning mind......
I thought you might like these also! The last one is my favorite. Have a good wkend all....YGM.

Quotes...

If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. -- Samuel Adams, speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776

The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- State Tamperings -- Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)

There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principle is contempt prior to investigation. -- Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)

Waverider

(05/10/2002; 13:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75353)

Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Ratings Cut by S&P

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNwbbBNBRGV1dHNjSnippit:
"Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group had their credit ratings cut by Standard & Poor's on concern a drop in investment banking revenue and increased competition have hurt two of Europe's biggest banks.

Deutsche Bank, Europe's largest bank, was lowered to ``AA-,'' S&P's fourth-highest rating, from ``AA,'' the first reduction in three years. Credit Suisse, the parent of investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston, had its rating cut to ``A+'' from ``AA-,'' S&P said.

Global banks' ratings are under pressure as revenue dries up for underwriting stocks and bonds and advising on mergers, and loan losses mount. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co., both put on ``negative watch'' by S&P, are among banks whose ratings may be cut.

``We wonder if this is just the tip of the iceberg,'' said Richard Thomas, a credit analyst at ABN Amro in London."

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 14:15:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75354)

World Gold Council chief resigns

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/10/news/world_gold.reut/index.htm
The organization of gold mining companies also said it is looking to restructure and remodel.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The World Gold Council said Friday its chief executive, Haruko Fukuda, will leave her post on June 30, and the WGC will look to restructure and remodel itself.

Black Blade: "To pursue other interest"? Although as far as I can tell, she seems to have done a fairly good job.

YGM

(05/10/2002; 14:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75355)

Proud to be Canadian eh!.......

Sometimes I'd like to Burn My Passport.......*From American Freedom News*

JUST WHAT WE NEED!

Canada's socialist prime minister offers
sanctuary to 13 militant Palestinians hiding
in Church of the Nativity..........

Jean Chr�tien yesterday tentatively offered sanctuary in Canada to 13 Palestinian militants who have been under siege in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity since April 2.
..........................................................

*Sell the rest of our Gold Cretien! Focus on what you do best like bankrupting the Nation. We already know you're the worst embarrassment we've ever had for a leader!!!!!!!

By the Lord Harry, I was a mellow fellow til I read this today.....Now 10 Cerveca and two pitchers of Margueritas
won't quell this fit of rage......Send our Troops over there (Afganistan) & they have to buy their own boots and equipment, we hear they're also buying food to eat & they made the trip in a Zodiac (our Navy)....I think I'll mail Cretien my passport, I really do......Arrrrgh!....YGM

darkhorse

(05/10/2002; 14:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75356)

@YGM

This must be the new "official" way of getting terrorists into the US. They've tried (and sometimes succeeded) doing it covertly before, now we've got transparency! I empathize with ya, buddy!

darkhorse

(05/10/2002; 14:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75357)

oops...

make that last post read "..."official" way of terrorists getting into the US." Kinda transposed my words...my lysdexia must be catching up with me again.

Pizz

(05/10/2002; 14:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75358)

Sanctuary

Great, and with a Swiss cheese border. . . . .

Have a good week end all.

Pizz

White Rose

(05/10/2002; 14:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75359)

Payback for Canada

We dropped some bombs and killed 4 Canadian soldiers in Afghanastan a few weeks ago. We ignored the fact that we were told they were operating in that area. We compounded our error by acting like it was a nothing.

Is this payback? Of course offering sanctuary may be very different than actually having to go through with it. It all may be part of some international grandstanding.

CoBra(too)

(05/10/2002; 14:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75360)

Rating Cuts - On heavy financial Enterprises ! -

Hello - Sir Waverider - Seen your comments on CS and DB's credit rating cuts by S&P - while JPM, ML are on negative ratings watch. ... Reminds me of the guy, who sees the splinter in the other guys eye, while straining to see beyond the log in his own eye!

... As Cisco, the Kid told the story the other day - don't ever give up on real tech growth - and as long as you can beat the expectation of Wall Street - you'll get away with no growth at all - what an idiotic game to play ... on to the final dooms day and just consider Cisco is trading at 20% of it's high ... meaning you've lost 80% - if you've been lucky enough only to buy it at the highs and not at the dips also! Reciprocately - you would just about need an 800% capital appreciation to ... yeah, to just make it back in "nominal" terms - ... and that's really extremely ... UN-likely - or is it?

Meanwhile, you could have resorted to the barbarous relic, which has so far appreciated a bit - though only enough to make you wonder, why you ever ponder'd fiat as a medium to calculate your long term goals - such as saving for education, housing and finally retirement - as you can clearly see now - to the end - or forever ... all of it has gone the way of decay ...

... Haven't seen any agency re-rating the weight, nor the credit of an oz of gold lately - have you? ... cb2

YGM

(05/10/2002; 14:51:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75361)

White Rose

If Only It Were That Simple....We just get one bought, paid for and moronic leader after another.....At least Doris DAY is not the Opposition Leader anymore.....Ah well I'm over my rant and it's safe to walk around me here again :>) Think I'll go out and talk to the Horses and when I get to the rear end of one I'll lift the tail and tell Cretien what I think......

TownCrier

(05/10/2002; 15:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75362)

Last chance to order these Graded MS61 $10 Liberties online

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlSoon to be replaced by the Brazilian 20,000 Reis gold coins from the late 1800's (each with a whopping 0.5286 ounces of gold). They are nice! If these aren't the most beautiful manhole covers you've ever seen, I'll eat my keyboard.

There aren't many, so call Centennial now if you feel like jumping the gate.

R.

TownCrier

(05/10/2002; 16:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75363)

If you only read one article today...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6DF826ED-429D-4732-AA49-128747DD5497}Thanks to Mr Gresham and The CoinGuy for posting this link earlier today. Here are some notable excerpts:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -
...A month from now, a year from now, five years from now - you choose the timing, because I won't - the price of an ounce of gold will be three to six times what it is now.

...By then, the euro will be worth a ton more than 91 cents. So will the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. By then, overseas investors long will have stopped hoarding U.S. securities...

...There are some who believe that when the red ink in the U.S. current account surpasses 5 percent of gross domestic product, all heck will break loose in financial markets. Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley is on record saying a "hard landing" for the dollar, and with it the boatloads of U.S.-linked securities in foreign portfolios, may be inevitable. "A crisis of confidence is not inconceivable," Roach writes.

...I submit that with that swollen account deficit and the dollar's decline will come (has come and is coming) an explosive move up in the price of gold. The $310 metal, up almost 20 percent this year, one day will sell for a price that reflects a cascading American balance sheet.

...Ian McAvity ... says the gold-price trigger may be days or weeks away.
------(click link for full article)------

Did you ever think you'd see such pro-gold material in the mainstream media? Hinting at gold's potiential, there are millions of investors out there who have yet to even consider adding gold to their portfolio holdings. When the herd turns and begins to run this way, you won't want to be caught sleeping in the path of their thundering hooves. Make your move (to buy) now and head for the high ground.

R.

R Powell

(05/10/2002; 16:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75364)

Strong finish for the week

Stocks down
Dollar losing strength
POG up
POS up
Gold mining stock indexes up (XAU = 79.90)
Peoples' television stock picking channel still endlessly wondering about analysts' integrity (duh)
Daughter's guinea pig gave birth to six baby pigs!!
Papa guinea pig recovering from yesterday's visit to the animal hospital. Yes, there will be no more baby pigs. Poor papa.
Gold and silver look strong. Silver may be looking at the approximate 475 level again soon. The technical analysts often mention the fourth attempt at breaking through as the charm. Hope so.
Happy weekend to all !!!
Rich

Boilermaker

(05/10/2002; 16:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75365)

Jimbo, Flooding the Market

Unlike oil, there is little spare shut-in gold production capacity available. Some mines have closed and some of these can be reactivated but only at much higher prices. Ofsetting any mine reopenings will be the negative effects of years of high grading that have depleted the higher ore grades in many mines. Low prices have forced miners to exploit their lowest cost reserves and at the same time put off exploration for new reserves and maintenence of existing mines. I expect that it will take a price north of $500/oz and an investment climate free of government interference in the markets before large scale investment takes place. Once that hurdle is passed, wait another 5 to 7 years before you see the finished product. Miner profits will also lag the POG increase because they will be catching up with long neglected exploration and mine maintenence.

Gold mining has a tremendous inertia that works in both directions.

Have a good weekend to all of my dear gold bugs.

Boilermaker

jlfletc

(05/10/2002; 16:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75366)

GR2?

Where can thoust be, sir knight?

Arcticfox

(05/10/2002; 17:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75367)

(No Subject)

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2002-05-10-gold.htmSnip..
But unless you're invested in gold, this rally may actually be a reason for concern. It could be a clue the stock market is in more trouble than many realize, say analysts who study the metal.

shelllus

(05/10/2002; 19:05:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75368)

1-henry ford 2-dustbowl

'It is well enough that people of the nation
do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there
would be a revolution before tomorrow
morning."----HENRY FORD

I WAS ALWAYS STRUCK BY THE TIMING OF THE 30'S DUST BOWL AND THE MARKET CRASH/DEPRESSION----WE ARE GETTING A REPEAT OF THE DUST BOWL NOW AND LOOK WHATS LIKELY IN THE MARKET!

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 19:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75369)

OPEC Likely to Extend Oil Cuts, Supporting Prices

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APNup_xRST1BFQyBM
Snippit:

Saudi Arabia and its colleagues at the meeting supply almost a third of the oil the world consumes. While no decision on production will come until OPEC meets in June, the ministers plan to discuss the future of their biggest revenue-producing industry at a time when economic growth is lower than normal.

``Supply and demand are essentially balanced, giving OPEC no reason to adjust output,'' said Brad Bourland, senior economist at the Riyadh-based Saudi American Bank. ``Prices could actually slide further in the next few months if tensions in the Middle East ease.''

Most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries need oil above $20 to ensure they have enough cash to avoid going into debt. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer, faces an unemployment rate near 15 percent and near zero economic growth.

Other nations at the meeting of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries in Cairo include OPEC members Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and non-OPEC states Bahrain, Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The group gathers every few years to discuss topics ranging from trends in world oil markets to financing the next generation of oil fields.

In the first quarter, oil supply and demand was equal at 76.3 million barrels a day, and oil use this year will increase by 440,000 barrels a day, the International Energy Agency estimates. Arab producers consider a ``normal'' level to be four times that amount.

Some analysts say keeping supplies in check may send prices to $30 a barrel and hurt the economic turnaround by making it more expensive to buy products such as gasoline, jet fuel and heating oil. Oil prices ``will go just up further, there's no doubt about that,'' said Leo Drollas, deputy director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a London think tank founded former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani. ``That will hold back economic growth.''

Black Blade: Looks like the Global Recession has taken a toll by lowered increases in demand. However, oil producers are determined to keep prices profitable and that means an economic recovery in the west is highly unlikely anytime soon.

sector

(05/10/2002; 20:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75370)

Cabal Not Dead

...Like an Aircraft Running Low on Fuel ...They Can Still AttackSECTREAS O'Neill launches an Africa "I feel your pain" tour with entertainer Bono.

Can you believe it? Will Mr. O�Neill turn out to play a mean set of drums?�or perhaps bass guitar?

They will strangely bypass South Africa...maybe they're afraid of getting AIDS.

This oddity has me thinking that one reason for the money boss to be out-of-town is to keep from answering tough questions that result from a pending controversial decision's.
�Such as a decision to sell IMF gold�.Proceeds to go of course to help the poor�Not to mention the further destruction of South Africa's economy.

The last time this idea bobbed up from the vast Clinton brain trust, it quickly sank because the Congressional Black Caucus killed it...Bad for Sub-Saharan economies. The problem today is that the CBC has little clout...even IF they fully grasped that their "Friends" in the Democratic Party actually stabbed them in their financial backs throughout GoldGate.

To attempt such a move today, with three years of factual evidence posted at GATA.org and goldensextant.com regarding the Fed's JPM and their nefarious acolytes, would only serve to draw even more attention to the scam of GoldGate. It would be akin to pulling harder on a Chinese finger puzzle.

Nevertheless, Greenspan may be up to the challenge and try to pull his fingers out of their joints.

Should such a move be launched it will no-doubt fail... but the more important point is that an exquisite buying opportunity would present itself.

So...let's see if the bureaucrats at the Fed can live up to their lofty salaries and chamfered limousines. Let's watch them take their best shot...and keep our powder DRY.

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 20:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75371)

Gold rush could signal trouble

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2002-05-10-gold.htm
Snippit:

Investors fed up with the gloomy stock market may be missing a bull market that's glittering right in front of their faces: gold. Even while blue chips and tech stocks are in the dumps, the price of gold is on a tear. Stocks of companies that mine gold, which are closely tied to the price of gold, even hit two-year highs this week.

But unless you're invested in gold, this rally may actually be a reason for concern. It could be a clue the stock market is in more trouble than many realize, say analysts who study the metal. "The gold market senses a continuation of the bear market in stocks and rising inflation," says John Hathaway, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management. "Nothing else is working." When investors start buying gold, they're bracing for trouble. They're essentially turning away from the stock market and saying they'd rather protect the assets they have than risk losing more.

Unfortunately for non-gold investors, everything that's propelling gold is likely to be bad for non-gold stocks, says Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals fund. Rising oil prices, fears of inflation and concerns about Middle East unrest all go into a stew of things that boost gold, he says. Most important, the weakening U.S. dollar is causing nervous investors to buy gold for safety.

Anxiety about the U.S. economy and stock market is rising. Investors buying gold are betting problems such as rising oil prices and terrorism are being underestimated, Johnson says. Gold's performance is a warning that the market is not safe yet, says Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research. "A prudent investor would look for ways to survive if the world remains an unfriendly place," he says.

Black Blade: A fairly good article until the end where the author shows his ignorance of the Gold industry. Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals fund suggests that Gold can be "magically" produced by "tapping" new mines. Obviously he never worked in the mining business and why he manages a PM fund if he doesn't even grasp the most basic concepts is beyond me. It takes a minimum of 5 years to bring on new mine production and that's after exploration proves out the deposit. After several years in the business I know. I swear most people on Wall Street are complete idiots.

slingshot

(05/10/2002; 20:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75372)

The World Today

Moving at the Speed of LightThere are some of us who remember when things moved at a slower pace. With each new discovery and inovation we think how much time we save only to be caught in a trap as we compress more activity in the same amount of time.
So what has this to do with Gold? Maybe nothing. I just have the impression that one reason why the gereral public has very little interest in gold is that they are busy making ends meet in their daily lives. Actually, Goldbugs are caught in some type of time displacement with the public instead of moving fast, are in slow motion. Over time they speed up and eventually synchronize with us. Until they take a good look at what is happening,to employment,
real estate market, savings, credit debt, savings etc, they will continue to do the things they do and live within their comfort zone.
They don't realize they are running out of time. What a shame.
Slingshot

Waverider

(05/10/2002; 21:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75373)

Black Blade

http://www.gulfnews.comYou may find this article interesting from the Gulf News dated Tuesday May 7, 2002 (pdf), titled "Arab States Urged to Boost Internal Trade" by Nadim Kawach. It's about increasing inter-Arab trade of oil and gas, but what caught my eye was this..."The seventh energy conference comes at a time of significant economic and political developments...the tendancy to form regional economic blocks is gaining pace as the new world order emerges in finance and energy." Hmmm...I think the Arabs have a lot more up their sleeve than they're letting on. Cheers,

Waverider

TownCrier

(05/10/2002; 21:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75374)

Tighten your belts, gents!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlDrop one of these hefty (0.5286 troy ounce) Brazilian coins in your pocket and things could get breezy if you don't cinch up first!

(You may have to click your browser's REFRESH button if you still see the Liberty offer at this link.)

R.

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 21:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75375)

Walloped dollar to accelerate gold

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6DF826ED-429D-4732-AA49-128747DD5497}
Toronto veteran explains the de-hedging scenario

Snippit:

This column isn't about Aldridge, the American short-story writer who quit school at age 13 to write for 19th century magazines. I just put it there so you can turn away from this column now if you don't want to hear my view of markets in coming years - a view that essentially is the gold story with some dollar-trimming and a swollen current account deficit for good measure.

A month from now, a year from now, five years from now - you choose the timing, because I won't - the price of an ounce of gold will be three to six times what it is now. By then, the world's money flows will have stopped way short of the fiber-optic fork in the ocean that leads to New York. y then, the euro will be worth a ton more than 91 cents. So will the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. By then, overseas investors long will have stopped hoarding U.S. securities in their digitized central banks or their frosted chalets. (As I write this, the flow of fur-ner money into dollar-denominated assets is falling sharply, to well less than half the average monthly flow of $44 billion we saw last year.)

There are some who believe that when the red ink in the U.S. current account surpasses 5 percent of gross domestic product, all heck will break loose in financial markets. Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley is on record saying a "hard landing" for the dollar, and with it the boatloads of U.S.-linked securities in foreign portfolios, may be inevitable. "A crisis of confidence is not inconceivable," Roach writes. (Six or nine months from now, you can go back to Roach's report and long for the good old days, when a euro was worth just 91 cents.)

I submit that with that swollen account deficit and the dollar's decline will come (has come and is coming) an explosive move up in the price of gold. The $310 metal, up almost 20 percent this year, one day will sell for a price that reflects a cascading American balance sheet. With U.S. households living off their spree of credit-card and mortgage debt, the perpetual stock and housing market bubbles in this country (and in most of the world's major cities) will hiss, hiss, hiss.

In coming weeks, I hope to bring you several high-profile money managers and (of course) mining executives who state better than I do the case for, as Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX: news, chart, profile) manager John Hathaway put it to me, "a big number" for the gold price. Whether that big number comes from a sinking dollar, or the $63 billion of gold derivatives on the books of U.S. banks and trust companies (as of Dec. 31), or creeping inflation, shocking deflation or, Lord help us, bigger and more deadly exploding mailboxes, remains to be seen.

Ian McAvity a newsletter writer who keeps paper files of every chart, stat and mining press release, stretching back 25 years, points to a pending rush by hedged gold miners to reduce the amount of gold they are forward-selling. As Gold Fields Ltd.'s (GFI) top executives, Chris Thompson and Ian Cockerill, put it this week from New York, the forward-sale of gold is a source of supply in a falling gold market, spurred by bullion banks and central banks that lend their gold reserves in search of incremental income. But in the current market, where gold relentlessly sets new highs, the scramble to close forward-sale contracts - to de-hedge and return to the spot market for bullion - is a source of potent demand in a rising gold market.

South Africa's Gold Fields and several other large miners, such as Newmont Mining (NEM), have virtually no hedged sales of gold. In other words, the miners who don't cross-dress their portfolios with frilly futures contracts, options and other derivatives, sell an ounce of gold for whatever it sells for in the spot market.Andy Smith, the London-based precious metals analyst at Mitsui & Co. whose work in this field sets him apart from most Wall Street gold analysts, estimates there are 3,000 tonnes of gold on mining companies' hedge books.

Black Blade: This is the same story that I and many others have put forth, however, when Thom Calandra spins it, there is a certain poetry. Many appear to be getting much more bullish than they did when the general consensus for the POG was about $300 to $305 for this year. As the POG powers past these levels the analysts reset their targets even higher. Some are holding the POG target at $325 while others are projecting $400 per ounce and beyond. And yes. The day of the hedger is over. Those hedgers who are exposed when the POG breaks loose will quickly find themselves under new management (and ownership) while old management face the wrath of screwed shareholders.

mikal

(05/10/2002; 21:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75376)

@Sector

IMF has it's hands tied now that GATA's message is well distributed. The Europeans and the Congress, the Japanese and Chinese, to name a few, stand in the way. I believe they have plans to sell IMF gold, along with German, Swiss, and others, after gold stabilizes at a much higher value. Then sales will be restricted, like the Washington Agreement. And the Congressional Black Caucus probably has more power today than ever! Every time I drive through my city, many long-negected, typical inner city blocks greet me. Is there a government benefitiary or program that spends or operates perfectly? It's a myth that city dwellers get more than their fair share of tax dollars. Because what ALL of us need is a powerful caucus, not taxation without representation. If the government wanted to eliminate blight, they could do so overnight. When you can't start a small business in this country anymore, government will take them over.

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 21:27:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75377)

Re: waverider

Thanks, I'll check it out. Also, there is a movement in Dubai and Kuala Lampur to use gold dinars and silver dirhams as currency and for trade among muslim trade in the ME and Asia. The point is to conform to strict Islamic monetary beliefs (such as eliminate usury) and to create a stable PM currency. Given the number of Islamic countries and some not quite so stable or honest, this is a very good idea and it frees these countries from blackmail by other nations outside their sphere of influence.

BTW, I am reading "The Skeptical Environmentalist" again, however, you might want to read "The Prise: The Epic Quest Foe Oil, Money, and Power" first. It is less science and math intensive but it covers some rather interesting history of the power of Oil interests (western and Arab for example). It really puts things in perspective. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Bulldog

(05/10/2002; 21:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75378)

(No Subject)

So we participate here in the great gold run, but how many of us has actually convinced our circle of friends to buy physical gold? A couple of my friends bought shares in a number of gold stocks 5 years ago or so. We were so foolish, we thought the dot.com craze was smoke and mirrors.
When the crash came, gold stocks would go through the roof.
I got my RRSP statement today, and in the last quarter, my portfolio is up by 50% over the last quarter. Problem is I have Bema at about $8, Miramar about $5 and so on. I no longer buy stock. It's a sucker's game.

My wife and I were visiting my "y2k retreat" last week. I was doing an inventory of my food storage program and my stash of "currency", paper and physical. In Canada, we have changed our five and ten dollar bills. I took home both denominations since they are no longer current. The point was made when I was handling my physical gold and silver. No government can issue a facsimilie, only the real thing counts.

Of all my circle of friends, only one, my brother has followed my urgings to buy physical. He bought a 100 oz bar
just to get me off his back. Even now when his purchase has increased by $30/oz, he is not a fan.

This shell game is about done. Here in Calgary, the office space vacancy rate is on the increase. Last year there were takeovers in the oil patch by U.S. interests to the tune of $25 Billion. Once they rationalize their staff, they no longer need the people or the space. Canada is a secure supply of natural gas and oil to the U.S. Frankly, I think we should turn off the tap briefly to foster a reasonable settlement of the softwood lumber problem. It is not hard to fathom why most of the world dislikes the U.S. Now they are going to subsidize their farmers. I guess we take it in the ear there too. I would also like to see the Canadian government bring our troops home from Afganistan.

We can't afford to supply proper uniforms or rations. I read today that many of our troops have lost 20-30 pounds in the five months they have been in Afganistan. Then our P.M. offers sanctuary to a bunch of Palestinian fighters from the church of the Nativity, go figure.

I think this is quite a day. The Dow closed below 10,000.
There may be some brief rallies authored by the mutual fund managers, but this is a done market. I hate buying gold at over $300 but in a short time we will marvel that we did not buy more at this price.

YGM

(05/10/2002; 22:26:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75379)

Bulldog.....

Good to see you here nieghbour....Just 2 hrs SW....YGM

Chris Powell

(05/10/2002; 22:31:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75380)

More than one departure at Morgan Chase

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1104More than one departure at Morgan Chase.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1104

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 22:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75381)

Follow The Smart Money?

I came across a financial report that puts forward some interesting points. I am not about to tout any particular stock, but the report concerns a Silver miner (Apex Silver Mines � SIL). Silver hasn't really blasted off yet, however, if the large purchases of SIL shares by hedge funds is any indicator, then we may be observing an institutional money rush in progress toward the PM side of investing and out of the general stock market.

Three hedge funds (Moore Capital, Pequot Capital, and Soros Management � George and Paul Soros) hold about 28% of SIL. The flagship mine San Cristobol in Bolivia holds about 470 million ounces of silver (proven and probable reserves) and hasn't even begun mining. Why would the so-called smart money run toward PMs while the Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls taunt and ridicule Gold and Silver investors? These hedge funds are not alone. Bill Gates CEO of Microsoft holds over 12% of Pan American Silver (PAAS) through a holding company, and the "Oracle of Omaha" Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger through Berkshire Hathaway hold over 130 million ounces of Silver offshore and out of reach from the US Governments grubby paws.

Note that Silver has not really rallied substantially though these titans of the financial world are grabbing hold of the PM sector. Who knows how much Gold (if any) they hold (probably a lot of Gold under wraps). Obviously these people are expecting something to happen or are at the very least are taking some precautions. While the Soros brothers and Bill Gates are betting with Silver mining shares, Warren Buffett (the most successful investor in history) has grabbed a sizable chunk of physical Silver. Considering the shifting fortunes on Wall Street, the decline in the US Dollar, deepening recession and the increasingly bearish streak running down Wall Street, we could be looking at a major shift into precious metals that could make dot.com mania look like an obscure abstraction of days gone by in comparison.

As always, get out of debt (at least try), get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance while still cheap, stash cash for several months expenses, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. At least "follow the smart money" by getting insurance against the coming economic calamity.

- Black Blade

YGM

(05/10/2002; 23:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75382)

Black Blade...

A Good Thread for Discussion.....Samrt money & Silver...Excellent heads up post...To my mind what we see & know concerning AG hoards is only the tip of the iceberg of missing (unaccounted for) Siver in the world...I sure would hope others will follow your thread here if MK doen't mind...It may give a better understanding to those accumulating Gold just where this game is headed!
How much Paper is owned by old money in Gold & Silver we know nothing of......?? CEF is I know held (big blocks) by Bankers, Lawyers and other smart money....There's many avenues to pursue here & a picture could be formed by pooling information such as yours & others......YGM

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 23:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75383)

How To See Past The Accounting Trickery � Dividends!!!

Investors are surprised at how they were taken in by the Pimps of Wall Street and the Financial Media Trolls. On a daily basis we hear of accounting scandals, restated earnings, shareholder lawsuits and SEC investigations. How can Wall Street get past this jungle of deception, past the ambush of dishonest corporate executives, auditors, and accountants, and through the minefield of SEC investigations? The answer may be as simple as a "dividend check".

After struggling with "Pro Forma" earnings (earnings after ignoring all the bad stuff) and other dishonest tactics such as "off the books accounting", synthetic leases, etc. perhaps something as simple as a dividend check may be required to keep the corporate charlatans of Wall Street honest. You can hide a lot of problems in the convoluted balance sheets of corporate America, but it is very difficult to argue with a dividend check.

Just before the Great Depression people knew well the deceptive accounting practices of Wall Street. However, a measure of fiscal health was the dividend check. Corporations that paid out dividends from a percentage of earnings were more likely financially healthy whereas companies that did not pay dividends were suspect.

From 1960 to 1994 companies paid out from 43% to 64% of their earnings as dividends. That's hard to argue with. There were few SEC investigations in those days as well. Then after 1994 dividends were considered "out of fashion" and relics of the past. Greed took over in the board room as director "rubber-stamped" decisions by executives as long as they got a piece of the action and friends were brought in at the expense of the owners (the shareholders). In effect they and the executives got to plunder the companies bank accounts with obscene compensation � screw the shareholders. As a result dividends fell to 1.2% by 2000.

What excuse did these crooks use? They simply stated that long-term capital gains taxes were less than short-term capital gains (such as dividends). That's true. However, this opened another can of worms. This led to the explosion of the dot.com, tech, and telecom manias � an explosion of companies that did not have to prove their financial fitness � let alone a business plan. A new paradigm was born to fit to the "New Economy". Dividends were for the old "Fuddy-Duddys" who "just didn't get it". In the end nobody got it. No one understood these businesses and as they failed apparently Wall Street didn't either. Well over $5 TRILLION went away into the ether � vanished like a wisp of smoke never to be seen again. All that cash gone � "Gone to Money Heaven".

In December of 1994, the Financial Accounting Standards Board created by the SEC and under pressure from the corporations and politicians dropped a proposal to classify stock options as a form of compensation as an expense. Suddenly a new corporate scam was born with complicit politicians (such as major cheerleader and committee oversight chairman Sen. Joseph Lieberman D-CT no less). It took corporate managers and board members no time at all to realize that if the share price went up � they would make a fortune on their options (and the hell with what the owners � the shareholder thought � screw em). The corporations stopped paying dividends and bought back shares and built factories (even if they weren't needed".

The plan worked out well as the Bull Market surged. Many made fortunes and even shareholders fared well (at least the ones who got out while the getting was good). Corporate managers and board members made fortunes. When the smoke cleared many began to question items on the balance sheets. Soon the house of cards began to tumble. Soon one dot.com, tech, and telecom after one another collapsed as the whole financial base was exposed as a fraud. Many companies simply vanished while others are just a shell of their former selves. Today investigations are the order of the day from Enron, Arthur Andersen, Global Crossing, Qwest, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase, etc. The investor watches as the corporate managers and board members walk off with obscene gains while the poor investor is holding tattered shreds of shares. Soon the investor may simply ask for dividends instead � and that alone could make the modern day corporate executive and board member tremble with fear - they will be forced to be honest with the corporate balance sheet.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/10/2002; 23:54:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75384)

YGM - Silver

I believe that MK and the Castle Guards also supply Silver and numismatic Silver (graded Morgan Dollars) if I recall correctly. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 00:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75385)

EIA makes smooth takeover of reporting duties

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=143355
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 10 -- The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration took over weekly gas storage reporting duties from the American Gas Association in an apparently smooth transition this week, despite earlier fears among industry participants that the move might obscure summer market fundamentals.

Storage outlook

Meanwhile, Adkins said, "We believe a combination of rapidly declining US production, as well as a modest recovery in demand, will lead to summer injections that are 40% below 2001 levels on average." Gas producers representing about half of total US gas supply have reported their first quarter production this year was down 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2001 and by 4.5% on a year-over-year basis (OGJ, May 6, 2002, p. 7).

"While US gas production is not likely to fall another 2.5% in the second quarter of 2002," Adkins said, "we do believe that it is likely to continue falling sequentially by at least another 1.5% next quarter. "That means that the year-over-year gas supply gap should continue to widen to over 6% (3 bcfd) as we move through the summer."

He said, "Because a supply problem is much harder to correct than a demand problem, we believe falling US supply will be the driver behind natural gas prices over the next 6-12 months." Moreover, Adkins said, "With strong oil prices raising the switch point for residual fuel to nearly $4/MMbtu, as well as anecdotal evidence that the manufacturing sector is recovering, we can conservatively model a modest increase (2 bcfd) in demand for natural gas this summer." The result, he said, is that gas storage injections should average 40% lower this year compared with last year.

"Consequently, we believe that volumes of working gas in storage will not reach 3,000 bcf by Nov. 1 and that the underlying supply problem facing the market could create another natural gas shock next winter," said Adkins.

Black Blade: As I have stated for some time now, we are likely headed into a NG energy crisis late this year or early next year unless a very aggressive drilling and production program gets under way. That is very unlikely especially now as rabid environmentalist extremists are now fighting energy production on the Rocky Mountain Front after they successfully blocked ANWR. Count on very severe energy shortages similar to last year and scratch one US economic recovery.

TownCrier

(05/11/2002; 00:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75386)

WRAPUP - US stocks, dollar drop; bonds, gold, oil climb

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/05/10/rtr599518.htmlNEW YORK (Reuters) - "People are intimidated that they are unable to guess this market," said Stanley Nabi, managing director at Credit Suisse Asset Management, which oversees $269 million worldwide. "Whether you are a professional or trader or speculator you have egg on your face. There is fear of a liquidity crisis at telecoms, fear of a weak dollar, fear of higher interest rates, fear over more confrontation in the Middle East."

..."The mood is very downcast right now and people are just really skeptical on stocks," said Brian Pears, head of equity trading at Victory Capital Management. "They are getting disappointed with the fact that Wednesday didn't mean so much."
-----------

YAWN.

R.

TownCrier

(05/11/2002; 00:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75387)

Record British trade deficit of �3bn

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=293926Britain's exports to the 12 members of the single European currency have collapsed, raising fears that the UK is paying a high price for staying outside the euro.

The UK's trade deficit with the euro area has ballooned from just �300m two years ago to a record �1.87bn in the first three months of this year, according to the Government's own figures published yesterday.

...The slump contributed to a record global trade deficit of �3bn in March, which may force the Government to cut its estimates for economic growth.

...Diane Coyle, the managing director of Enlightenment Economics, a consultancy, said factories were relocating from the UK into the euro currency area."This can only get worse as Britain stays out of the euro," she said.
-----------

That pretty much sums it up. You don't have to be a weather man to know it's raining.

R.

Waverider

(05/11/2002; 01:07:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75388)

Massive Daily NASDAQ Rallies

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/massive.htmSnippit:
"On Wednesday May 8th, the day following an apparently positive earnings announcement by NASDAQ bubble darling Cisco Systems, the King Bubble of the NASDAQ speculative mania which still has throngs of fanatical followers, the besieged NASDAQ index exploded upwards with great fury, reaching for the heavens in a rally of Biblical proportions. In a single trading day the NASDAQ composite rocketed up by 122 points, 7.8%, to 1696! It was truly a wondrous sight to behold.

After the markets closed on Wednesday we began crunching the numbers and found that the May 8th 7.8% melt-up was the 8th biggest daily rally in the three-decade history of the NASDAQ. Quite impressive! In digging deeper it soon became apparent that massive record-breaking single-day bear market rallies in the NASDAQ exhibited very important distribution patterns of which all investors and speculators need to be aware. These revelations to us led to this essay on massive single-day NASDAQ rallies."

The bottom line is that record-breaking massive single-day rallies in an equity index are almost always short-covering rallies in primary bear markets. Whenever investors witness a spectacular daily rally in the NASDAQ or other stock index that is among the largest ever, they should not interpret it as a joyous sign of a turnaround but they should run for the hills to preserve their scarce capital from the evolving hungry and vicious bear.

Waverider: ~ Randy, those 'managing directors' would do well to read this gem from Adam Hamilton. Cheers!

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 01:18:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75389)

Chris Powell (msg#: 75380) More than one departure at Morgan Chase

Greetings Chris,

I googled for Dinsa Mehta as Bill suggested in his message to the yahoo GATA group, and found this from Feb 99....
----------------------------------
Buffett blows it
Modern Midas 'made a serious mistake'
By Samantha Zee, Bloomberg News

Warren Buffett, the second-richest man in the U.S., may have gotten it wrong when his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. spent about $650 million buying silver.

The Berkshire chairman revealed a year ago that the company had bought 129.7 million ounces of silver -- equal to a quarter of the world's annual output. He was betting that demand would outpace production, as it had for years, and send prices higher. Since then, silver has fallen almost 15 percent.

Commodities are an unusual asset for Buffett to hold. The 68-year-old investor (pictured at right), whose 40 percent stake in Berkshire is valued at $36.7 billion, got rich by investing in stocks of companies such as Coca-Cola Co., Fannie Mae and Gillette Co.

"Buffett made a serious mistake," said Martin Armstrong, the biggest individual silver trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and chairman of Princeton Economics Institute, an economic forecaster. "How many more billionaires will it take to push silver higher? The demand just isn't there."

The Omaha, Nebraska-based Buffett hasn't said what he's done with the silver -- or even if he still owns it. (A spokesman for the company declined to comment.) If he does, the investment has fallen short of the returns investors have come to expect from him.

Buffett bought silver when it averaged $5.06 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on that average, he'd earn 11.7 percent on his investment if he sold it all now. Buffett could have earned 40 percent in the same period by buying shares of a mutual fund that mimics the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

To be sure, his investment has become more profitable in the past month -- silver reached a six-month high of $5.81 Friday before closing at $5.642 an ounce, down 11.8 cents. Still, with weak economies in Asia and less demand for luxury items, such as jewelry, prices probably won't go much higher, and could fall, analysts said.

"Even though the fundamentals for silver haven't changed in the past year, the outlook has, and it's weakened," said Dinsa Mehta, global head of commodity risks at Chase Manhattan Bank in New York. This year, silver belongs in a range of $4 to $6 an ounce and "not any higher," Mehta said.

Owning a commodity isn't like owning a stock. Silver doesn't pay a dividend, and Buffett's big investment won't influence silver supply or demand the way it would a company's management. About the only way commodity speculators make money is by selling at prices higher than the initial investment and storage costs.

Chances are Buffett hasn't sold his stake yet because any large sale during the past year would have been conspicuous, traders said.

"Once there's a big player in such a small market, if he ever turns a seller, it seems that the market is finished," Armstrong said.

Berkshire will disclose the value of its investments, including silver, by mid-March, when the company publishes its annual report. While Berkshire probably hasn't lost money on silver, investors who followed Buffett into the market probably were hurt the most.

Buffett started buying July 25, 1997, a week after prices reached a four-year low of $4.145. By yearend, inventories monitored at U.S. exchanges had dwindled 37 percent and traders guessed supplies were being shipped to London, where warehouse stockpiles aren't disclosed. Silver rose to $6 an ounce.

Shrinking inventories sparked speculation that silver was being manipulated. Traders were convinced someone was cornering the market, as in 1980, when the Hunt brothers of Texas tried. Phibro Inc., a unit of Salomon Smith Barney Inc., caught much of the flak.

Buffett disclosed he was the buyer on Feb. 3, after a trader sued Phibro, accusing the firm of manipulation. The next day, silver closed at a nine-year high of $6.615 an ounce and jumped to $7.50 two days later as some investors concluded Buffett was right.

"Everyone was relieved," said John Simko, chairman and chief executive of Sunshine Mining and Refining Co., a Boise, Idaho-based silver producer. "After all the speculation about manipulation, if anyone was going to buy silver, you'd want it to be long-term player like Buffett."

Some investors figured silver would shoot up to $10 an ounce. Problem was, Buffett wasn't acquiring any more silver. He made his last purchase on Jan. 12, 1998, according to Berkshire Hathaway's annual proxy statement, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission three months later.

Without a big buyer, silver began to fall. It reached $4.585 two months ago, the lowest since September 1997 and 39 percent lower than the high reached after Buffett's announcement.

Berkshire's silver investment is just 2 percent of its assets, "but it's a big stake for the silver market," said Armstrong, the silver trader. "He was buying silver on price dips. That works in stocks, but not in commodities. People ran the price up, let it slip, wait for him to buy and run it up again. Now he's basically stuck with silver."

Buffett's investment is profitable, at least on paper. In an SEC filing, Berkshire Hathaway said the 111.2 million ounces of silver it held at the end of 1997 was worth $97.4 million more than the company paid. Buffett also has loaned some of his holdings, charging borrowers interest. With one-month interest rates on silver below 4 percent, returns from lending fall short of those from other Berkshire assets.

"Buffett's bet hasn't paid off so far," said Andrew Kilpatrick, a stockbroker in Birmingham, Alabama, who wrote Of Permanent Value: the Story of Warren Buffett. "Buffett's a long-term investor and usually takes a stake in something for five to 10 years. There are many investments that he's had for 25 years, so holding silver for a year is like a day-trade for him."

Even a losing investment would do little to curb Buffett's returns. Berkshire Hathaway stock rose 34 percent on average during the past five years, compared with 25 percent for the S&P 500. It closed Friday at $71,600 a share, down $300.

Lower silver prices could prompt some exploration companies and primary silver mines to cut expansion plans or curb production, which could help boost prices, analysts said.

Still, weak currencies in Latin America, which accounted for a fifth of the world's silver production in 1997, could keep mine production costs low in dollar terms, analysts said. And industrial demand for silver could weaken as digital photography replaces traditional silver-based films, which account for more than a quarter of world demand, analysts said.

Some investors aren't sure why Buffett veered from his strong record in stocks to dabble in commodities, though they're not about to abandon Berkshire Hathaway because of it.

"I don't fully understand what happened with silver, but Buffett works in mysterious ways and he's lost more than I have on this," said David Carr Jr., president of Oak Capital Management Inc., a money manager in Durham, North Carolina, who owns Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shares. "But I like to say, in Buffett we trust, all others have to pay cash."
----------------------------------------------
Buffett has prepared for the carnage which is coming some time in the future - he is big on insurance. I think a bull market in Optometrists is just around the corner. With all this short sighted forecasting over the last 5 years, the masses are going to need new prescription glasses to see the intrinsic value PM's have had for centuries, and will continue to enjoy when the SHTF.

Cheers.

Hipplebeck

(05/11/2002; 02:04:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75390)

saving Argentina

I wish I could throw together a
combination of all that extra silver
that I keep hearing about,
Hugo Salinas, and Argentina
and save those people who
are in such desperate need
of a new system. As a matter
of fact, maybe it could
be the start of something
that would spread.

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 02:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75391)

Re: Golden Bear � Armstrong, Mehta, and Buffett

That's an interesting article in many respects. Note that Martin Armstrong is in prison for engaging in con games and fraud, and Dinsa Mehta is out of a job. I would also note that if Dinsa Mehta is so much more intelligent about investing, how come Warren Buffett is a multi-billionaire and Dinsa Mehta is not? He also mentions that Buffett could have made more by investing in the S&P 500 index. Not now. The S&P 500 has lost over 30% in the last couple of years. Dinsa Mehta is not so smug these days. Of course with his recent "resignation" and the SEC probe into his dealings at JP Morgan Chase, he just might get to meet Martin Armstrong face to face. I just suggestion to Mr. Mehta is � "whatever you do - don't drop the soap".

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 02:45:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75392)

Film still king, claims Kodak

http://www.sunspot.net/business/bal-bz.kodak09may09.story?coll=bal%2Dbusiness%2Dheadlines
Snippit:

Digital cameras not ready to replace 'old style' just yet. Digital camera technology is not likely to replace chemical-based film for some time, according to Eastman Kodak.
Chief executive Daniel Carp said that film is still king despite a slump in the US market and the industry's shift to digital imaging. He explained that there is still room for growth in consumer film, particularly in markets like China and India where only about one in five households own a film camera. Kodak has opened 1,500 photography stores in India and China, and film sales have risen in both countries. Emerging markets now account for about 20 per cent of Kodak's film sales.

"A lot of cameras using film are still being sold," Yannas said. "And you have to remember a few billion film cameras have been sold over the last 20 years. Are the people that own the cameras going to throw them away? [They] most certainly won't. "Film," he said, "will be a cash cow for decades."

Black Blade: Traditional film sales are expected to rise. So much for the touted demise of Silver in film. Silver use in the film industry will be around for decades (at least).

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 02:59:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75393)

The Barbarous Relic Files - Golden week for jewellery trade

http://www.hk-imail.com/inews/public/article_v.cfm?articleid=32610∫catid=1

Snippit:

HONG Kong's watch and jewellery retailers had a ``golden week'' when tens of thousands of mainlanders came during the Labour Day holiday looking for gifts. Firms were yesterday still adding up the proceeds of the bonanza from the mainland's just-ended week-long holiday. About 54,300 mainlanders arrived in Hong Kong as part of 2,330 tour groups from April 30 and Monday this week, according to Immigration Department figures. Increasingly affluent mainlanders had made a big impact on otherwise gloomy retail sales, industry leaders said, spending HK$3,000 to HK$10,000 on purchases in Hong Kong's jewellery stores. Hong Kong Jewellers' and Goldsmiths' Association chairman Leung Sik-wah said he expected his organisation's 300 members to see a 20 per cent increase in takings over the holiday period.

Black Blade: Just wait until all Chinese mainlanders are able to purchase Gold. Flocking to Hong Kong for "barbarous relics". Hmmm...

Hipplebeck

(05/11/2002; 03:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75394)

midnight ramblings

I'm thinking the most important factor to take into consideration at this point in all markets is the Isreali/Palestinian conflict. I have a feeling that we are in an economic war already. I have seen reports lately that there are many countries that are boycotting American goods.
This is a sign of economic war isn't it?
It looks to me like we are heading towards a war between Isreal aligned with the US against the Arab states and maybe some others who are Muslim. Who knows how Russia, China, and Europe will react. It looks like a pretty sure thing to me because I don't think either the Isrealis or the Arabs are going to give up the temple mount.
Lets look ahead. The Saudis have stated that they will not use the oil weapon. Will they need to? The Saudis are the defacto leaders of Islam, so what they do has a great influence on all Islamic countries. The Arab countries are leaning towards unification since they have all seen how the US plays one against the other and turns on those who were puppets only a few years before. They also all have reached the end of patience in the endless negotiation problem because they see East Jerusalem and the Al Quds slipping away as Isreal makes new reality on the ground with settlements and evictions.
I really think that the war is being played out as heavily in the economic forum as the political or military forum, so we are probably looking at quite a few more shocks. It's a kind of a covert war without guns. So far, I don't think the Bush administration is winning a whole lot of friends, so I expect that there are going to be some surprises coming our way. Be safe, hold Gold.

Belgian

(05/11/2002; 03:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75395)

@ Towncrier

Knew that you were going to mention the record Britisch trade deficit with Euroland (Yeahhh) ! That's the way it works. This trade deficit is "the best" argument to convince all the euro-reluctant brits to vote for EMU.
Those naughty architects at BIS and their funny currency-floating-games ! Hahahaaa. Something similar will happen with the eagle-paper ($).

Lesson : Forget about military force being an exclusivity.
It's the paaaaaaaperrrrrrrrrr floatsssssssssttttt.
Nice wee to you Sir Randy.

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 03:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75396)

Black Blade (msg#: 75391)

Thanks for the Martin Armstrong update BB, it rounds out the current state of play nicely.

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 04:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75397)

Stock Options Worry Some Investors

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020510/sec_investor_summit_2.html
Investors Voice Concern to Securities Exchange Commission About Executive Stock Options

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Investors are expressing their concern to the Securities and Exchange Commission about company executives' stock options, about the accuracy of corporate financial reports -- and about the SEC chairman's own prior association with "pirates of Wall Street." The fallout from Enron's collapse overshadowed the agency's first "investor summit," held Friday at its Washington headquarters and broadcast over the Internet and on cable television.

Black Blade: Obviously these charlatans are grossly over compensated. "Pirates of Wall Street" about sums it up.

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 04:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75398)

Goodrich cut 1000 jobs in 1st-qtr, to cut more

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020510/manufacturing_goodrich_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Aerospace and industrial products company Goodrich Corp. (NYSE:GR) said it cut nearly 1,000 jobs during the first quarter of the 2002, and had another 980 jobs still to be eliminated.

Black Blade: Medtronics to layoff 800 and Sprint to layoff 300. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. Some recovery eh?

Boilermaker

(05/11/2002; 04:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75399)

"Lunatic" Label Fires Up Wild Bill Murphy

As if Bill needed any more baiting, Dinsa Mehta pours salt on the wounds. I love this guy.

Le Metropole Members,

From: www.theminingweb.com

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2
85256BB500659ACE?OpenDocument

>Gld hedging mastermind contemplates retirement

By: Tim Wood

Posted: 2002/05/10 Fri 14:00 | � Miningweb 1997-2002

PRINCETON, New Jersey -- The man credited more than
anyone else with spawning the gold hedging boom of the
1990s genially shrugs off talk that he has been fired.

The news surfaced in a report circulated by Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee chairman Bill Murphy. The affable and
urbane Mehta said of the rumours: "An endearing feature
of the gold market is that it has had a hard-core of
conspiracy theorists providing sideshow entertainment for
twenty years. Their consistency in occupying the lunatic
fringe is admirable.

As head of Global Commodity Risk and Global FX Options for
the giant institution, Mehta says he advocated combining
the bank's foreign exchange businesses as a single asset
class and Bullion was positioned into that grouping. This enabled Mehta to contemplate moving on to retirement....

-END-

Just a coincidence? Bill Demchak, global head of structured finance and credit portfolio of J.P. Morgan Chase, resigned
on April 18 of this year. That was just about the time
Dinsa Mehta "supposedly" resigned. Vet Mehta, like
Demchak, came from Chase and was with them for 16 years.
The smoke is bellowing from Morgan's NY headquarters.
How come they both decided to give up lucrative careers
at the same time at such young ages?????

So two of Morgan's brain power all of a sudden decide to
RETIRE voluntarily at the same time. DUFUS America,
no longer! You cannot buy this Enron drivel.

There is no free press in America. If there were, there
would have been an honorable discussion of what GATA
and Reg Howe had to say, ie, as so many other debated issues
such as health, etc, get discussed ad nauseum.

Why has the GATA evidence of gold price manipulation been
EMBARGOED by the US PRESS? Wrong am I? Do a Google Search
like Nick Laird of Australia did on the fired and corupt
Dinsa Mehta, a cabalist of The Gold Cartel, and see how much
you find on GATA or Reg Howe from the WSJ, NY Times,
W Post, Reuters, Bloomberg, etc, on one of the biggest
financial scandals in US history.

What a stink this is. The good news is that the GATA ARMY
is on a roll. We will bury these arrogant bums?
HIP HIP!

LONG LIVE THE ENVELOPING HORN!

BILL MURPHY
CHAIRMAN
GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 04:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75400)

Hedging vs. Non-Hedging Gap Widens

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BB50068C422?OpenDocument
Yep, non-hedgers win hands down.

Arcticfox

(05/11/2002; 05:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75401)

Pertaining to equities Cochrane states "sell in May and Go Away"

5/10/02: Market Monitor --Frank Cochrane, President of Investment Timing Consultants

JEFF YASTINE: Our Market Monitor guest this week is Frank Cochrane, the president of Investment Timing Consultants, an investment advisory firm based in Farmington Hills, Michigan.And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Frank.

FRANK COCHRANE, PRESIDENT, INVESTMENT TIMING CONSULTANTS: Thank you very much, Jeff.

YASTINE: You were quite bearish the last time you were on the show, that was November 9 of last year where you were talking to Paul. Are you as bearish now as you were then?

COCHRANE: In fact, I think the next six months will be a major problem for the markets. What's happening right now is we're seeing a lack of confidence as far as investors are concerned, and for very good reason. The accounting woes, what they're hearing from the analysts, they wonder if, in fact, that's true or not, and companies such as GE, Tyco, Xerox (XRX), saying earnings aren't really what they are, we're restating them, are really lending credence to that. In addition to that, the employment picture is really not that positive. So I think those things coupled with the fact that the economy is on another downturn I think will reinforce that notion.

YASTINE: Now the last time you were on the show you gave Paul some targets, and these were for the fourth quarter of this year, sometime in that period. And you said the Dow at 5500, the S&P 500 at 500 to 600, and the NASDAQ at 600 to 800. So you're talking about a wholesale cutting in half of the major indexes.

COCHRANE: Yes I am, the situation in the Middle East still exists, I believe that the market went through a parabolic upswing from 1994 to, say, the first quarter of 2000. If you follow that, then we're going to witness a parabolic collapse - or a collapsing parabolic. And that will take these averages back down to the break-out level of 1994, which is right around 5000 on the Dow, say, 600 to 800 on the NASDAQ, and right around 500 on the S&P 500. In addition to that, if you look at simple valuation methodology, the P/E on the S&P 500 right now is 35, 30, depending on what number you believe, to get it back to a fair value would take it down to about the 400 level. So I think the earnings are going to either have to come up or prices are going to have to come down. And I think it's going to be the latter.

YASTINE: What about, and I don't want to belabor this, but what about the economic rebound that economic data appears to be pointing to, at least at this time?

COCHRANE: Housing is starting to slip again. Yes, the productivity numbers were strong. But that's going to stab in the heart of employment. You don't need to hire new people if the current skilled worker is working and being productive. So I don't think the economy, I don't think that's going to help in the longer term.

YASTINE: Again, when you were here last you gave us three longer term buys, Northrop Grumman (NOC), which is up 25 percent since then, United Technologies (UTX), up 21 percent, and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which is up about 4 percent. Would we hold onto those if we bought them at that time?

COCHRANE: Yes. I really don't like any stocks other than, say, gold stocks at this point time. However, obviously defense stocks will do well, I think, in this environment over the course of the next year. So certainly I would hold those.

YASTINE: All right, so let's talk about what would you be buying here if anything? you'd be buying Nightly Business reportgold stocks. They've already had a good run. Newmont Mining (NEM) is up something like about 50 percent just in the past four or four-and-a-half months.

COCHRANE: Yes. But gold was in a bear market basically for the last 18 years. I think we're starting to see the beginning of something huge. And I'm not talking about buying gold for the next six months, I'm talking about buying gold for a long - low gold stocks for a long period of time. So...

YASTINE: Any particular picks on that?

COCHRANE: Well, I would look at gold mutual funds, certainly. You can look at Newmont Mining, American - Barrick , Gold Fields (GOLD), any one of those I think you'll do well, just hold onto them. I'm not saying take your entire portfolio and put it in that. I would also raise a lot of cash here. Again, the next six months, I think, are going to be very, very sour for stocks prices as prices move lower. And in addition to that, I might have some short sell recommendations, anything in technology, more or less. But certainly I would look at the QQQs, which the NASDAQ 100 tracking index. IBM (IBM), I think, has a very good possibility of going down to the 40 to 45 level. And Dell Computer (DELL) I think can go down to the 10 to 15 level. So those are stocks that I would sell. I think they're overvalued here. There's too much P in this market and not enough E.

YASTINE: At what level? We have about 30 seconds left or so. At what level would the Dow turn you bullish? When it got down to 5500?

COCHRANE: Yes. I think in the 5000 to 5500 level. What we need to see is major capitulation, we're not even close to that yet. People are waiting for the next rally, a la last Wednesday, to sell into. We are not going to see - we will see rallies along the way, but nothing significant. But yes, those levels that I mentioned earlier would interest me in stocks.

YASTINE: All right, sir, we have to buckle our seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride is what you're saying.

COCHRANE: I think sell in May and go away.

YASTINE: OK. Frank, it was good talking to you.

COCHRANE: Great. Thank you very much.

YASTINE: Our guest, Frank Cochrane, president of investment timing consultants.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2002 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Arcticfox

(05/11/2002; 05:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75402)

I forgot the link for my previous post...

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=DROOY&read=10166eom

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 07:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75403)

@sector and IMF Gold

In a world where a sizable population of governments and their bankers have chosen to operate a system that prices gold to market and depends on a solid gold underpinning; I think any attempt to sell IMF gold would be a "last straw" that could propel the world into a dangerous level of economic disagreement. Nope, I think the lumps are going to be handed out and taken and IMF gold saved for a rainier day IMHO...CM

sector

(05/11/2002; 09:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75404)

The Fed is Desperate for Gold to Sell

@CavenMan: Drawing Attention to GoldGate by "Selling IMF Gold"Anything goes. But there are many, many more referees now.

The situation is indeed dire. The Fed's lap dog, Deutsche Bank has actually INCREASED its gold derivatives to about $40 Billion...no wonder Ernst Weltke is running around babbling about selling bullion for "Interest bearing" equities.

As for JPM and Mehta, they are in trouble and dumping interest rate derivatives by the Trillions [$5Trillion last Qtr(20%)]. The Q1 2002 report is right around the corner and will tell a tale indeed. My guess is that JPM has dumped another 20% in IRDs and another boatload of gold derivatives.

Just where these derivatives are going is another question. How may "Dummest guys in the room" can there be? A five-year derivative maturity just can't be evaporated without producing the borrowed physical gold. This little fact is the fly in the ointment that has been the death of the gold manipulation plan from the beginning.

Spinning the death of JPM...What fine entertainment it will be!

It's already started...Mehta running his red-herring mouth about conspiracy theorists...this, from the guy who implemented Mahonia's offshore, tax- avoidance operations. It's like Kenneth Lay blaming Enron's losses on the S&P rating system...

"Our credit's GOOD! Didn't you ratings bozos visit our sixth floor, trading studio and see for yourself?

So�will the IMF gold sale story float next week?

There is no escape for the Fed and its now impotent banks. They may try anything.

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 09:35:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75405)

Golden Bear

Thanks for the silver/Buffett article.
Can I add that the author is not correct in stating that the Hunts tried to corner the market in 1979-1980. They entered the market in 1974 and had been rolling over long silver positions for years along with accumulating physical. There was also a group buying through Norton Waltuch of ContiCommodities. These included the Saudis and other middle east oil interests.
After the POS ran up enough to chase out the weak shorts, only the bullion banks and silver producers were left to take the short side. These basically total original costs plus storage and then sell at a higher price in the futures markets.
Even though trading was normal in the Oct. 1979 contract (normal as in no squeeze) a Mr. Jarecki of Mocatta Metals became worried over the situation. He influenced the market regulators, "So on Sept. 4, 1979, at a Comex board meeting, Dr. Jarecki suggested that silver margins be raised to $3,000 a contract, and daily trading limits doubled from twenty to forty cents. The board so ruled."
Then Walter Goldschmidt, the president of Conti, assured the board that there would be no squeeze, and instructed his traders not to increase long positions in the Dec. contract. But fear prevailed and the board, made up of many of those holding the short positions, soon limited the number of contracts allowable by an individual.
Eventually margins were tightened and then "liquidation only" orders were allowed to be traded. This order, of course, tanked the price of silver.
The Hunts during this time had complied by reducing their long position, rolling over contracts to future months (assuring no call for delivery in the current month which meant no squeeze) and had even offset positions with EFP (exchange for physical) deals with Mocatta, thus reducing Mocatta's short risk exposure. The Hunt's even offset for less than 99.9% silver in some cases. Paul Sarnoff in "Silver Bulls" my sourse of this information, is very clear that there never was a squeeze or even the threat of one! He backs up this contention with the open interest numbers from the Oct., Dec. 1979 and March 1980 contracts.
Mr. Sarnoff, at the time, was working for ContiCommodities where Waldech traded and personally knew many of these players. He was also a friend of our own CoBra.
What is of interest is that the guards of the Comex, making the rules, are self-regulated. Also, Sarnoff states that Goldschmidt, head of Conti, had a sign in his office that said, "He who holds the gold, makes the rules." This book was copyrighted in 1980. I'm halfway through my second reading. It's probably worth at least three but I have to return it to the library very soon as it's out of print and is an inter-library loan. It, like "When Money Dies" by Ferguson, were both recommended reading from the USAGold forum. Quite a place.
Happy Weekend and Happy Mother's Day to those who qualify !!!
Rich

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 10:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75406)

R Powell (msg#: 75405)

Rich,

I too noticed the erroneous Hunt corner comment in the article - I also found a copy of Silver Bulls at my wife's university and am reading it at the moment.

Thanks for the summary, and the recommendation in the first place to read it.

Cheers.

Old Yeller

(05/11/2002; 11:14:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75407)

Focus on Bush trade hypocrisy

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=10052002-112359-6380r
Good viewpoint on Bush's erratic and self-serving behaviour and the detrimental repurcussions on the world economy.

Many worldwide dollar holders are still held in sway of the myth of US economic dominance and open trade policies.These myths are now being exposed on a daily basis,and not just in the alternative information outlets that most of us frequent.The farm bill is an atrocious attack on free trade,giving blatant hand-outs to companies hardly in need of government largesse.The fact that Bush's "principles"can evaporate so easily in obvious vote buying,does little to invigorate claims that American economic policies are to be emulated by those further down the chain.

Why should the world accept the dollar based monetary system when the issuer of the scrip has so little regard for the wellbeing of other less fortunate nations?

Economic hegemons should lead by example,or they should be stripped of the "exorbitant privilege".It's as simple as that.Economic problems should not be solved on the backs of other,less fortunate players.`

jayzee

(05/11/2002; 12:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75408)

Buffett's Silver

I have read the Buffett was forced to lease his silver which put that silver back on the market to hold down the price. It was threatened (or implied) that the government would give him a lot of trouble (IRS, etc.) if he did not cooperate.

Without the leasing, silver would have risen in price like Buffett thought it would, but TPTB could not allow that.

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 13:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75409)

@sector

Since so many of the gold derivatives are essentially private contracts, we do not have all the fine print. Perhaps they can be settled in FRN's. I cannot believe the FED and the US government have backed themselves into a corner with no way out. They've got options or at least believe they do. Default is an option. Inflation is an option. A change in legal tender status for the current dollar is an option. Taking the medicine is an option also if some among you have already been vaccinated. There must be other options?? Financial meltdown is not an option. Selling the IMF gold is not an option because there are several guns pointed at our heads. They'll work it out and a significantly higher POG will be one of the end results.
BEST....CM

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 13:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75410)

@USAGOLD or Towne Crier

What are your opinions regarding IMF gold sales?

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 13:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75411)

@ Forum

Would anybody else like to weigh in on the potential of IMF gold sales? TIA...CM

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 13:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75412)

@sector and FORUM

If IMF gold is sold, wouldn't that be the end of SDR's and the "system" that was previously agreed to? I'm on thin ice (as usual) with knowledge but wouldn't IMF gold sales be the end of the current global monetary regime as we know it? Hopefully I've asked a good question for discussion and the best and brightest here will respond.

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 13:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75413)

jayzee

I've also heard many rumors and much speculation concerning Buffett's silver purchase and whether or not he has sold or leased some or all of it since then.
He started buying in the summer of 1997 and was not discovered until his broker, Philbro, was sued for market manipulation. He then disclosed that he had bought 89 million ounces and would purchase 40.7 million more. Interestingly enough, the suit was then dropped. Was there a deal made behind the scenes? I've speculated that the final 40.7 million ounces may have been settled with lease agreements thus delaying the date of actual physical delivery and in exchange for this, the suit was dropped.??
I've never seen anything definitative to answer the question. I don't think Buffett, being a buy and hold type guy, would sell at a loss. I've always been encouraged that he bases his investments on fundamental, supply and demand speculation. He also is reported to have the patience of Job so perhaps he's happy to place an open order to sell at a much higher price and wait.
Do you have any sources of opinion regarding Buffett's hoard? I'd love to have access to what he knows but, since that's not going to happen, I can only watch what he does. Of course, he knows that so the first thing he did with his silver was to deposit it in London where disclosure laws are more favorable towards privacy. Pretty smart fellow, that Warren. He also has a great sense of humor, similar to Will Rogers and Mark Twain.
Any other sourses of information??
Rich

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 14:03:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75414)

Quote of the Week

I just finished the rest of yesterday's forum, those posted after my brain entered sleep mode.
I greatly enjoyed Black Blade's final sentence in post 75371, "I swear most people on Wall Street are complete idiots." And here I thought they were just half-wit salesmen.
Rich

Canuck

(05/11/2002; 14:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75415)

Euro storming

http://www.xe.com/ict/table.cgiEuro at 93.5 against USD?

mikal

(05/11/2002; 14:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75416)

TV Financial News

An anecdote today from another forum re: a cable tv news feed on gold scrolling along the bottom of the screen- gave the closing POG in Hong Kong. Along with interviews and other exposure, gold is phased back into awareness. This conditioning will naturally advance with time, adding fuel to the PTB's financial concepts and portfolios. This isn't such a hidden agenda anymore! @Cavan Man- Good points re: IMF!

Aristotle

(05/11/2002; 14:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75417)

Thanks for the repost (#:75399) Boilermaker. I LUV Bill Murphy!!

I like to cheer for the underdog, and Murphy is such an oaf he'll always, always always be an underdog, bless him.

Mehta, working for a very prominant commercial U.S. bank, gives him (Murphy) the goods, and instead of getting to the heart of the issue as we all have done, he just snarls and chases his tail for awhile.

Mehta says, "Bill, the world is changing."

Bill's reaction, "Dinsa, you need a breathmint."

Pause to appreciate the plain vanilla fact that Mehta is on the outs. Discussions of whether it was under duress or freely is itself a sideshow to the main event.

Since Bill likes to pretend he's hanging with the big boys in the world of Gold, let's help him out by showing him the one important thing Mehta conveyed through Tim's article at the Miningweb:

"Mehta says he advocated combining the bank's foreign exchange businesses as a single asset class and Bullion was positioned into that grouping."

Let me repeat this point: this comment didn't come from Euroland where we've all already been impressed by things like their "Washington Agreement" and the well-defined position of Gold with foreign exchange among the Eurosystem's reserve assets. No, the significance is that we now see this comment coming from none other than JP Morgan in the very heart of Financialand, U.S.A.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

PS. Nothing wrong with being an oaf. I, too, am a snarling tail-chasing oaf.

Leigh

(05/11/2002; 14:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75418)

Cavan Man re IMF

Cavan Man, this is from an old document my husband recently unearthed in his father's filing cabinet:

....Basically, what happened (in September 1975) is that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was shot down as manager of the world's monetary system and was replaced by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland. It is the most important single monetary event since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, which created the IMF. It is one of those events which change history.

If it had not been for a Reuters dispatch in the small hours of Tuesday, September 2, 1975 we would not have caught the key phrase... "REAL CONTROL IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE BIS." These eight fateful words were part of the longer message detailing the Gold Agreement reached on 8/31/75 by the "Group of Ten" finance ministers who met quietly on the Presidential yacht "Sequoia" anchored in the Potomac River on the two days preceding the IMF's annual meeting. This Gold Agreement was widely trumpeted in our press as being a final defeat for gold. Nothing could be farther from the truth, as we shall see. "REAL CONTROL IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE BIS." Thereby hangs quite a tale.

The IMF and the BIS have been fighting since 1944. In that year, World War II was drawing to a close. Europe and Japan were bombed-out wrecks. There was no business - their only business was war. The only country that had any sort of an economy was the United States, which stood supreme. Our cities and industries were intact. We had $25 billion in gold. Nobody else had any. We were absolute Number One, in a position to dictate what the shape of the postwar world would be. So we called a meeting of the world's financial leaders at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to tell them what an American peace would mean.

However, there were two jokers in the deck. The representative for the U.S. was one Harry Dexter White, a brilliant economist, soon to be identified as a Russian agent. The British representative was the famous economist John Maynard Keynes. Keynes was either a Communist or a Fabian Socialist, whose theory of deficit spending has warped the thinking of two full generations of economists in this country and England, with disastrous effects on the entire Free World.

Both White and Keynes insisted that the Bank for International Settlements be dismantled, and that the IMF be the only monetary authority.

The Bank for International Settlements was established in 1920, after World War I. Its name describes its functions exactly. It restored the prostrate economies of Europe and provided the machinery for settling debts of countries whose currencies had no meaning. The BIS represented then, as it does today, the hard-money, gold-oriented central banks of Europe who understood that the way to keep Communism from taking over the world was to stop the debauching of currencies which creates inflation and despair everywhere. No wonder Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes wanted to destroy the BIS.

It was a close thing, but the BIS survived. Thus the battle lines were drawn between the IMF and the BIS, each going for the jugular of the other. At first the BIS was pitifully weak, and the IMF had things its own way. The dollar was supreme. Gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, and the dollar was officially declared to be the world's reserve currency. This meant that the dollar had the same value as gold and could be legally held as a reserve in each nation's treasury.

What all this led to was that the U.S. could simply issue dollars to buy whatever it wanted all over the world, and the other nations had no choice but to accept the dollars whether they wanted them or not. Thus was the world inflation started which would prove so devastating to other nations, but so helpful to the Russians. For some years no nation dared oppose the U.S. in all this, because we provided the military shield against Russia.

But the various nations were recovering from the war, and in 1957 the BIS people began to fight back. De Gaulle became French president in 1957, and he decided to test the theory that the dollar was as good as gold. He began to turn in dollars for gold at the $35 rate. This caused dismay in Washington, and De Gaulle was smeared in our press as the incarnation of evil. Other nations such as Germany, Italy, and Switzerland also began to claim our gold, adn in 1961 President Kennedy forced the Europeans to form the London Gold Pool to support the dollar at $35 an ounce.

The gold drain continued until one horrendous week in March, 1968, when the Gold Pool lost about $4 billion. In a panicky weekend meeting in Washington the Gold Pool was ended, but not until our $25 billion in gold had been cut in half, to about $13 billion. This dreadful gold run ended with the so-called "Gentleman's Agreement," in which the various Central Banks agreed by handshake not to buy gold in the open market. This preserved the shaky fiction that gold was still worth $35.

I first became aware of the BIS in late 1971, when an obscure item in the Federal Reserve Bulletin indicated that something called the Bank of International Settlements had bought ALL of South Africa's gold production for that year. After many inquiries it began to dawn on me that the BIS was the agency by which the Central Banks were buying gold for their own account. The BIS was not a party to the "Gentleman's Agreement," and not bound by it. The BIS could buy gold for its members' accounts and never report it to the U.S. or the IMF. By a coincidence, South Africa became a full voting member of the BIS in 1971, the first non-European nation to be so honored. (The U.S. and Japan were not then voting members, though they were permitted to attend BIS meetings as observers.)

********
CM, gotta go make dinner. If you're interested, I'll finish this up later.

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 14:56:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75419)

Good Numbers

Today's IBD, from page B2 where "Market Sector Indexes" list 19 different sectors with both the three month change and YTD change.
The very first listing is "Gold Index"
Since Jan. 1 +64.68%
3 month %change +32.28%
This same sector is shown with a chart on page B4 which also lists "IBD's 197 Industry Group Rankings"
There are, as the title indicates, 197 groups.
Yes, No. 1 is "Metal Ores-Gold/Silver" with 43 stocks in the group and the same YTD +64.6% gain.

Even if my friends still disregard my rantings of coming higher gold and silver prices, readers of the IBD will be hard pressed to overlook this news.
The guys next door have been trying to equate the higher XAU and HUI index numbers with coming advances in POG and POS. They've concluded that either mining stock company share prices must now be overpriced OR the price of the underlying company products (gold and silver) must be undervalued and due to rise. This seems logical. There are some good technical analysts there who discussed the matter and concluded that every point advance in the XAU should roughly corrolate to a $4.00 rise in the POG. If they're anywhere near right, POG/POS are now much too low. What? You knew that. It now seems certain that the stock prices are preceding and heralding POG and POS advances. I haven't the knowledge to say if this has been the case historically or if the reverse will be true after Joe and Jill momentum investment drives metal prices well beyond their "true" monetary valuation. I was totally ecomically ignorant during the 1980 bull market. Does anyone remember?
Rich

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 15:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75420)

Aristotle

Ari....Thanks for picking that out. You're RIGHT! The comment went right over my balding head.

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 15:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75421)

Leigh

Thanks. I am very interested. Can you quote the source precisely.

Leigh

(05/11/2002; 15:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75422)

Cavan Man

I'll finish it after dinner. It gets more interesting! I believe it was written by a businessman in my husband's hometown, and it was a personal letter written to his sons. I don't want to quote the name and address because it was a private letter. The written is not a "public" figure, as far as I'm aware.

Leigh

(05/11/2002; 15:08:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75423)

"writer" not "written"

I'm having trouble spelling today....

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 15:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75424)

Leigh

Regarding 75418 Yes, please do continue!
Rich

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 15:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75425)

Leigh

I have seen it but please continue. It is about "the sting".

Leigh

(05/11/2002; 15:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75426)

Cavan Man

....Perhaps you can see why I became a BIS-watcher. Slowly I began to see that the BIS was managing and manipulating the entire gold market. They kept things cool, always held the low profile, and concentrated on winning by changing the rules of the monetary game. The first big change came in late 1971. It was a classic.

In August, 1971 President Nixon devalued the dollar by 10% and announced that we would deliver no more gold at $35 or any other price. Within a few months President Pompidou of France, a key BIS member, met Nixon for two days in the Azores. Pompidou persuaded Nixon that since the dollar had been devalued by 10%, gold should be raised by the same 10%. Nixon agreed, and announced that henceforth the official price of gold should be $38.00 an ounce. I shall never forget the look on Pompidou's face as he stood with Nixon in front of the TV cameras after that meeting. He looked like the cat with canary feathers all over him. He knew that the myth of $35 gold was finished, because if something can move an inch, it can move a mile.

So the gold rat-race was on. In a matter of months, the price of gold roared up to $70 an ounce, corrected to $60, then took off for $130, had a stiff correction at $90, and then headed for almost $200 before coming back to its present level just over $150. Pompidou had changed the rules.

That was the big change, until this most recent one on September 1, 1975. How does the BIS get its way, against the U.S. and the IMF?

I am virtually certain that the BIS gets its way by using our debt against us. This is the way all high flyers are brought down. The Europeans, Japanese, and Arabs have such enormous amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds that they can blackmail us any time they wish by refusing to renew these debts when they come due. If only about one-fifth of this debt were presented for payment in one month, it would close our banks. It is that simple!

With President Ford frantic to be elected in 1976, the last thing he wants is a banking crisis. So when the BIS boys come at him with that sort of a threat, he knuckles under like a pussycat, and the BIS gets back in control. How do you like that for a script?

Despite the fact that the press brayed all over that this September 1 Gold Agreement was a smashing defeat for gold, let's look at some other things the BIS crowd won:

1. Central Banks can now buy gold for their own account. No U.S. president since Roosevelt has ever agreed to such a thing.

2. The IMF is going to return one-sixth of its gold to the original contributors, at $35 an ounce. This was heralded as "phasing gold out of the system," but all it is is phasing gold out of the way. In five more years, the IMF won't have any gold at all, so it is the IMF that is being dismantled. This means that no IMF or U.S. sale of gold will ever depress the price.

3. The official price of gold is now abolished. This means that the only actual price anywhere is the market price. Each nation thus has a vested interest in seeing that the market price goes as high as possible. This includes the U.S.

4. There will be no official price for gold for two years. Translate this that there WILL BE an official price in two years. In other words, Mr. Ford agreed to make the dollar convertible into gold at whatever the price of gold is in September 1977, long after he is either defeated or re-elected. No skin off his nose here.

Well boys, that is what I wanted you to know. (Semi-personal stuff concludes the letter.)

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 16:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75427)

Thanks Leigh

That's a different tale. The BIS: CBers bank. Who is the BIS's bank? Who's at the top of the food chain.

Paper Avalanche

(05/11/2002; 17:05:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75428)

CNBC on Friday

Greetings! Long time lurker, first time poster. Did anyone notice yesterday on bubblevision (CNBC) that there was a split location broadcast? Ron Insana was at the NYMEX (or maybe it was the COMEX) and Sue Herrera was on the usual set on the floor of the NYSE. I thought that it was a watershed event when CNBC began to show the price of gold along with the futures in the lower right hand corner of the screen before the market open. That was just a few weeks ago. If they begin to broadcast the Market Wrap show with Ron and Sue from the commodities / stock exchanges from this point forward, then this will tip the media's hand that they have bought the new paradigm of gold and they don't want to be late to the party. If I see on CNBC this Monday that this has become a permanent fixture of the Market Wrap show, then its time to bet the farm. I will be giving a call to our gracious host, Mr. Kosares to "load up."

Did anyone else see yesterdays CNBC show that I am citing? If so, are you aware of this being a one time deal (I only saw the last 30 minutes and didn't catch if this was a special show).

This whole gold thing is too much fun. Take Care. The paper avalanche is on its way.

PA

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 17:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75429)

From The Daily Reckoning Weekend Edition

FLOTSAM AND JETSAM: Uncle Harry serves up a delicacy at
the Dos Passos table at Le Metropole Cafe. Could gold
could go as high as $529 an ounce?

The Dollar And Gold
- Harry Schultz

"...The dollar in modern economies and modern psychology
plays three distinct roles.

1. �It is in a practical sense an income
earning vehicle held both as a reserve currency
externally by individuals and governments.
2. �It is the common share of The United States
Inc.
3. �It is the largest world medium of exchange
in facilitating the transfers in world trade.

The Dollar therefore is the world's largest trading
market in itself. Historically, during periods of US
dollar strength the demand for gold has weakened. It may
be said that the there are only three markets that need
to be fundamentally understood, and the knowledge of all
other markets are then in your grasp. Those markets are
the US 10- year bonds, the US dollar and Gold.

The 21 year disdain for gold and relative attraction of
the US dollar has not declared Gold dead. Gold is quite
alive as it has efficiently played its role in the three
part relationship between the key markets that reflect
all else tradable in the world.

Budget Surpluses in the US and healthy Current Account
Balances due to ebullient stock and bond markets on
balance during the past 21 years has cast a long shadow
over gold. Gold is and will remain a currency investment
vehicle which runs counter to the concept that
government are running the financial household
prudently, therefore the modern concept that real
lasting value lies in paper assets. It does not matter
if we are discussing the Roman Republic, the Weimar
Republic or Argentina today; the concept is just the
same.

Great Britain played, in the early 80s, with every
plausible excuse to accept growing Current Account
Deficit Balances as acceptable. The Bush financial
administrators are doing the same today. It is not
surprising that the USDX (US Dollar Index) which had
risen from 65 to 121 has formed a Head & Shoulders top
technical price formation with deteriorating momentum
indicators. This formation is looking every day more
like a confirmed top on the long bull market for the
dollar.

Where can the US Dollar go?

For two generations our money managers and business
school students have experienced a declining on-balance
gold market price. Central Banks have sold their gold
reserves, attaching those sales to many reasons from non
performing asset to barbarian relic.

It has been politically incorrect to discuss gold in the
halls of ivy attached to the word currency. That
Jurassic Age concept, as the business students and
modern money managers feel, is believed to be a relic of
the unenlightened period of gold exchange standards and
the discipline of the exterior trade forces upon a
nation's economic condition.

They would ask: How could a major power stand for such
nonsense if gold was flowing in or out of the treasury?
Was it not more productive to control the printing of
paper along with every other economic factor and markets
while handling the news media as the spin city tool of
economic well being? Well, it has worked, but there may
be limitations.

The crack in the armor of any "controlled economy" is
that in time, ever more & then too much needs to be
controlled. Assuming our technical reading of the USDX
and the strength of the US Dollar is correct, then what
is that market responding to? It is the growing US
budget deficit and growing US current account deficit in
an environment of a lower US stock market and
potentially lower US bond market later this year. There
is no question about the US budget deficit and there is
no question about the deficit condition in the current
account.

History is a great teacher of how people who are in fact
the market, react to economic circumstances. It is also
a historical fact that all large current account deficit
conditions with concurrent large budget deficits cause a
significant fall in the market value of the country's
currency. In fact, what history says is that such a fall
would occur at the time that the current account deficit
reaches 5% of the GDP or similar past measures. Further
the fall in the currency usually amounts to 38% to 42%
of its previous bull markets. How high can gold go as a
result of a fundamental decline if the US Dollar?
�
In my opinion, based on the 40% mean decline in a
currency, considering this historical perspective and
relating that to the gold price, a one year fundamental
US dollar bear market measured by the USDX that results
in the USDX at 111-112 would place gold at but not above
$354.

A two year bear market in the US dollar in which at any
time the USDX sold to 99 and a gold price of $529 is
possible. This will result from the 5% GDP 40% currency
market revaluation precedents.

The bullish wild card for the gold price is the
extremely large short spread position on gold bullion
via gold derivatives represented by the gold producer's
hedge positions of a proportion few even today would
consider possible unless they did the research (as we
have) and saw the figures for themselves..."

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 17:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75430)

Also from the Daily Reckoning

The Cisco Mirage...
The Daily Reckoning
Weekend Edition
May 11-12, 2002
Paris, France
By Addison Wiggin

MARKET REVIEW: Cisco Head Fake And The Price Of Gold

"Want an interesting exercise?" asks the untiring John
Mauldin, fresh back from Mexico. "Go to
www.bloomberg.com. Get a quote on Cisco. At this moment
the consensus estimated forward earnings are projected
to be $.35 with a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 59."

"But if you go to Bigcharts.com and retrieve the same
information, you find they suggest earnings at $.15 with
a P/E of 102. If you look at the 2001 year fiscal year-
end for Cisco, you find losses of over $1 billion
dollars. �

"Who is right? Looking at the actual quarterly tax
filings, Bigchart.com apparently uses past or trailing
actual earnings. Bloomberg uses projected pro forma
earnings, and of course don't refer to those
inconvenient write-offs that will happen later this
year, which will possibly once again have the company
showing a loss."

And so... the same "company which said this week," Mauldin
continues, "'Sales are flat, we are not sure when we
will see some real growth, but we fired a lot of people
and cut costs so we made more money than you guys
projected,'" goosed the Dow up 300 points Wednesday.

But these days, Enron-weary investors tire more quickly
of such bull market shenanigans. The Dow gave most of
the rally back by the close on Friday, leaving it just
shy of 10,000... down 66 for the week. The Nasdaq and S&P also
fell... each for the third week in a row.

Meanwhile gold has been attracting attention as if it
were the late '70s rather than the early '00s. "A month
from now, a year from now, five years from now - you
choose the timing because I won't," wrote
CBSMarketWatch's Tom Calandra yesterday, "gold is going
to be trading three to six times what it is now."

Aristotle

(05/11/2002; 17:36:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75431)

Cavan Man, I'll give the IMF Gold sales a go

Since I continue to hold that One previously-promised post close to my vest for the time being, I'll try to make up for it by jumping into this issue a little bit. Can you help me out by telling me which of the recent days at the forum had some of the preliminary talk on IMF sales? Then I'll be able to look it over and respond more specifically to the particulars of the issue being raised or questioned. However for now, frankly, seeing some form of revival of their 1999/2000 off-market "sales" program would not only fail to surprise me, I'm expecting it some day.

On another note, I took a look through the Gold derivative dialog between you and sector. What got my interest was the part where sector said,

"Just where these derivatives are going is another question. How may "Dummest guys in the room" can there be? A five-year derivative maturity just can't be evaporated without producing the borrowed physical gold."

Derivatives, like Tolstoy's "War and Peace," lots of people talk about it but few of them have actually read it. You made this point nicely with your subsequent comment about our access (none) to the fine print on these private contracts.

Let's back up a bit. When looking at the available figures on the quantity of outstanding Gold derivatives, many Goldbug commentators blithely say that there's no way that real Gold can possibly be found in adequate volume to ever close out these derivatives.

Well, my friends, I submit to you that this same thinking should pose quite a problematic little riddle: Where did the necessary quantity of Gold come from to write (initiate) these derivatives in the first place?!

To be sure, an impressive volume of derivative business has ties to physical settlement, but much does not. It's purely notional from beginning to end, often serving a hedging or cashflow purpose to sophisticated participant in a Perfect World (a key point), and sometimes giving a lesser party the illusion that they have speculative exposure to (or actual ownership of) Gold. They don't. COMEX futures or options provide a good, high-profile example of this latter condition. Additionally, here's a very important news flash. We DON'T live in a Perfect World.

Not only can a "five-year derivative maturity" be "evaporated" without producing the physical Gold, it's highly likely that it was written without the Gold to begin with. Such is the nature of many swaps forming the bulk of derivative volume. Simply put, huge notional value, conjured at will, underlies contracts to exchange cashflow between counterparties based on financial indicators. For any desired notional principle, commodity swaps based on fluctuations of futures contract prices really are little different than interest rate swaps based on fluctuations in LIBOR.

Because these frequently represent nothing more than a two-way cash flow, (often in which only the differential is paid -- netted out if the counterparty service payments are on similar schedules) it's possible for one counterparty to terminate the agreement prematurely without affecting the outside market in and of itself. The consequences would be a reduction in the outstanding derivative position, and there is a possibility that the other counterparty has unwanted "exposure" and replacement costs to fill the original term of the truncated swap.

Of course, the counterparty's action following the premature termination is forevermore unpredictable -- depending on their original motivations for participation. If this swap was part of balancing exposure within an elaborate book, then laying off this risk becomes an important incentive to do more than merely accepting the swap's termination. It also shakes confidence in counterparties, and where Gold is concerned, it begins to undermine the important illusion that derivative instruments are viable substitutes for Gold. And so it begins, but not quite in the direct way that many people tend to think.

I'll leave it there, for all the obvious reasons.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 18:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75432)

Paper Avalanche

Greetings
There is an occasional poster who once stated that he saw this forum as a chance to learn, profit and have fun. He often appears when silver is mentioned. Your "This whole gold thing is too much fun." reminded me of that. Personally, I spend a great deal of time researching commodities but I've never taken myself very seriously. I don't mean to belittle what gold represents politically which is serious business (liberty) but I appreciate fun (humor) everywhere. Glad to see you mention the same.
Rich

Canuck

(05/11/2002; 18:27:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75433)

@ Aristotle

"Since I continue to hold that One previously-promised post close to my vest for the time being....."

Yes, you do.

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 18:35:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75434)

@Aristotle

And I'm wondering what set of circumstances are required for that post to be made public.... fascinating.

YGM

(05/11/2002; 18:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75435)

"YOU FEW"

Hark, good people, come gather round,
Come listen to my ramble.
I raise my voice, to warn you few,
Beware the Bankers gamble!

The paper pushed, with naught but ink,
While they lust for Gold and Silver,
The promise made, in Paper trade,
Is one they can't deliver!

Now history repeats itself,
While mongers con the fool,
A fraud on you they perpetrate,
And Paper is the tool!

Aye, my friends, your Gold you trade,
For Bankers worthless Paper,
They're after all, all you're worth,
The Banker's greatest Caper!

What now you say, can we regain,
Our lives worth saved so dearly?
Ah yes dear hearts, we shall design,
To turn the tables clearly!

These men have faults, they're quite depraved,
They think mankind so blind, no clue,
So print and press, both night and day,
And give this Paper false value!

Awake you few, we must conspire,
To give Paper back when able,
Buy Gold and Silver, to keep and hold,
And hence we've turned the table!

Now when in future, not yet seen,
Banks locked, all darkened and despaired,
Some of you, past vision gleaned, remain,
The wealthy few, too few whom, made safe, prepared!

......YGM. (bored here obviously)

Leigh

(05/11/2002; 18:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75436)

YGM

That was great!!! I wish you'd been here a couple of months ago during our poetry contest. You are very talented.

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 19:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75437)

Aristotle

Thanks for your thoughts (75431).
If I'm reading correctly you said that a great deal of the huge derivative position that GATA and others claim amounts to an unpayable debt is, in reality, speculative bets that (1.) will be settled in fiat (2.) don't amount to the full value of the contract (or anywhere near full $ value) but rather the difference determined by the change only in the underlying asset.
Example: If I sell one future contract of gold at $320, I've sold 100 ounces at $320 = $32,000. However, if I offset by buying back the same contract with gold at $330, I've lost only $10 x 100 ounces = $1000.
The offsetting of so much of this seems confused with the total dollar value which would be needed to deliver or take delivery which so seldom happens.
Have I got this right? If so, I'm glad you said it as I've seen so many get flamed for so stating. I hope I've understood correctly as I agree entirely.
As for physical actually sold into the market over the many years of the gold-carry trade, that many be another matter, if it was really physically sold (and gone) which has been much discussed but, to my knowledge, never definitely answered. I remember MK saying that the actual amount of central bank drawdown, over these many years, amounts to only about 3000 tons.
Am I reading this correctly?
Rich

Golden Bear

(05/11/2002; 19:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75438)

YGM (msg#: 75435) "YOU FEW"

Inspired writing YGM, Thank you. The new call to arms for all Goldbugs methinks...

sector

(05/11/2002; 19:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75439)

Is there Gold in Gold Derivatives?

Somebody [The IMF] seems to think so...Aristotle:

Where did the necessary quantity of Gold come from to write (initiate) these derivatives in the first place?!

Answer:
Gold Loans and/or swaps.

As to the question of whether the underlying financial instruments can be evaporated without accounting for the original gold, I offer the opinions of the IMF's 1999 Santiago, Chile Conference as described in this previousy unpublished manuscript:

Seeing Double

The IMF Admits to Double Counting Gold Reserves in Gold Swaps

In a recent seminar on gold swaps and gold loans the IMF has admitted to double counting gold reserves.

The Twelfth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics, Santiago, Chile. The Macroeconomic Statistical Treatment of Securities Repurchase Agreements, Securities Lending, Gold Swaps and Gold Loans. October 27-29, 1999

This meeting held important discussions on gold swaps, repos, gold loans, their definitions, legal implications and rising gold swap and gold loan volume as an IMF financial transaction class: Page 9

Gold Swaps

"Under a gold swap, which, in principle, can only be undertaken between monetary authorities because gold swaps only involve monetary gold, gold is exchanged for foreign exchange deposits (or other reserve assets) with an agreement that the transaction be unwound at an agreed future date, at an agreed price. [Emphasis added]

On page 12 there is a full-page table, a kind of checklist, showing similarities and differences between gold swaps, gold loans, repos, securities lending etc foreign currency liabilities incurred by gold swaps are also discussed.

Then on pdf page 17 there is a particularly clear passage with references to the BPM5 [Balance of Payments Manual fifth edition] Para.434

" Deposits (in foreign exchange) acquired by the central bank initiating the arrangement are treated as reserve assets because the purpose of the exchange is to provide the central bank with assets that can be used to meet the country's balance of payments needs. Reciprocal deposits acquired by the partner central bank also are considered reserve assets. Arrangements (gold swaps) involving the temporary exchange of gold for foreign exchange deposits should be treated in a similar fashion"

In other words, gold swaps are to be considered transactions in the underlying instruments (monetary gold and foreign exchange) and not as collateralized loans.

In assessing what is the appropriate treatment of repos, securities lending, gold swaps and gold loans it is important to bear in mind that the substance of the transaction, rather than just the name used to describe it, be examined so that the principles in these systems are not overlooked." [Emphasis added]

In section VI Recommended Treatments on page 22:

3. For Gold Swaps

(i) that they be recorded as collateralized loans when exchanged for cash
(ii) that the cash provider may or may not record the loan asset receivable in reserve assets, depending on whether it meets the reserve asset criteria
(iii) that the cash provider record a memorandum item "gold held under gold swap"

4. Gold loans/deposits

Gold swaps pose particular difficulties because of the implicit change in nature involved in the transaction (from monetized to nonmonetized). For monetary statistics, the present treatment is to record a transaction. To change to recording no transaction would involve making substantial changes to some time series. On the other hand, the Provisional Operating Guidelines for the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity treats gold loans/deposits as if there had been no transaction. The full implications on monetary statistics need to be fully explored before a recommendation can be made on the appropriate treatment of these transactions. [Emphasis added]

On it's face this document has significant value to those interested in finding the truth about gold swaps and loans. It seems to represent a detailed accounting seminar, containing a kind of play book on modern IMF gold swaps and other advanced financial methods. On page 36 of the document I find detailed accounting examples for the treatment of gold swaps, complete with alternate conditions for differing prices of gold (Although never a rising gold price condition and always oriented towards the central bank seller of gold). The examples show starting and ending balances in detailed tables. There are ten more pages of gold swap and gold loan examples complete with the following comment at the bottom of page 36:

"...[As a result of the gold swap between countries G and H]...What has happened here is that global gross international reserve assets have been increased (in this case, by 3000) 39. However, global net international reserves remain unchanged, that is, taking the loan payable by G into account."

39 This effect, of increasing global reserve assets through a gold swap � when treated as a collateralized loan � compares with the recommended treatment for a repo as a collateralized loan. In the latter case, the repoed asset, while retained on the balance sheet, is removed from reserve assets and is reclassified to portfolio investment and has no net impact on global reserves. This is not the case with gold swaps." [Emphasis added]

I read this passage as recognition by the IMF that gold loans and swaps falsely increase the global net reserve � an important IMF admission of accounting culpability in the public reporting of gold reserve assets. Could this questionable practice be the source of the West Point "custodial" gold classification, which I brought to light on March 7, 2001 in letters to the Treasury's legal counsel? Could it be that an honest treasury accountant recognized that the West Point Mint gold (20% of US totals) had moved out of US ownership as a result of one of these "gold swaps" soured by the Washington Agreement gold price rise and that we were now only its "custodian"?

In addition, on page 41 we find even more clarity from the IMF as it discusses their questionable gold reserve accounting practices:

"[Regarding the gold loan example between {country} K and {country} J] The net result is that no transaction is recorded by the monetary authority. There are unsatisfactory aspects to this situation. Firstly, the gold would be recorded in two places at the same time, in different classifications. On the one hand, were the gold loan to be recorded as part of reserve assets, it would be monetary gold. On the other hand, the gold, the actual physical gold, which was demonetized and either held by {country} K or {country} K has sold into the market (or had it exported), will be recorded as part of the inventory of the commodity gold. Secondly, if the gold loan receivable is included as part of international reserves by {country} J, there is no counterpart entry in the system to {country} K's loan payment to {country} J. As a consequence, the system will be out of balance on two counts: for the commodity and for the loan financial instrument, the result of the dual nature of gold."

In the following paragraph the IMF offers three possible solutions: (i) not to classify gold loans as monetary gold (ii) to record a gold loan as a transaction in the commodity gold and (iii) create a fictitious loan liability.

Conclusions

This IMF Gold Swap Seminar document admits double counting of world gold reserves as a consequence of gold swaps and gold loans. It also expresses serious internal concern that generally accepted accounting standards have been breached by this practice. The level of concern is such that the IMF offered no recommended monetary statistical treatment for gold loans/deposits. In light of the seminar workshop nature of this meeting combined with its ten pages of gold swap, gold loan and gold deposit examples it is reasonable to conclude that gold swaps and gold loans are not an insignificant component inthe IMF's activities. Moreover, it shows that there is rising internal IMF unease over gold swaps and gold loans per se. This document also confirms the liability mechanism (double counting) by which a vast gold short position (Estimated at 12,000 tonnes) has accumulated as previously reported by Frank Veneroso. Finally, since the FOMC transcripts show the US to have participated in gold swaps "Swapping Lies�Fed and Treasury Hanging Themselves" http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary18.html - anchor353442 the Federal Reserve must have therefore double counted its own gold reserves in accordance with these still current IMF procedures, thus calling into question how much US gold is US owned�if any.

August 28, 2001

1. The September 2000 US Mint change in designation of 1,700 tonnes of West Point Depository gold bullion reserve to "custodial" classification may be an inadvertent manifestation of treasury double counted gold.

Cavan Man

(05/11/2002; 20:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75440)

Aristotle

Hi. Thanks for your thoughts. I am just an instigator; trying to dredge up some discussion about the IMF. The gold if any within their friendly confines must be the very last card in their hands. I think they will leverage it at a higher price in some sort of necessary transition rather than pulling the old B of E funny business.

PS: Sector.....Thanks also...CM

R Powell

(05/11/2002; 20:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75441)

sector

Can I state the obvious? That's not easy to follow.
If I made an analogy that the IMF has taken two mortgages on the same house, both mortgages for 100% appraised house value, would I be close?
Thanks
Rich

The Invisible Hand

(05/11/2002; 20:43:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75442)

November or March � decision on UK euro entry

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/article/0,,182-293441,00.htmlSnippets from tomorrow's London Sunday Times

YOU have to pinch yourself sometimes to believe it. But we are within months of one of the most momentous decisions ever to be taken by a British government.
That decision � whether to join the euro � is at most 13� months away, and probably quite a bit less. The two most likely dates for the Treasury to publish its assessment of the chancellor's five economic tests are November and March. It seems unlikely that we could go through another budget without a decision on the euro.
On the surface all is calm.
�
Even so, some senior Treasury officials � not necessarily those engaged in the nitty-gritty of the assessment � are involved in the comprehensive spending review, which will not be finalised until July. So are the chancellor and his advisers. That is why autumn looks to be the earliest.
�
Off stage, however, things are happening. The Treasury denies that the government is in paralysis over the appointment of Sir Edward George's successor as governor of the Bank of England because of uncertainty over the euro
�
It was left to Ernst Welteke, the Bundesbank president, to suggest that euro entry would do more for Britain than for the existing euroland countries.
He believes that because about 10 new members will enter the EU in two or three years� time, there is a window of opportunity for UK euro entry. The Bundesbank thinks the euro would be strengthened by UK participation.
�
The euro has recently gained about 5% against the dollar, consolidating a position above 90 cents. This is despite an unhelpful backdrop of strikes by the IG Metall union in Germany and mixed economic data from euroland.
Euro bulls say this marks the start of a process in which, finally, America's $400 billion current-account deficit will start to weigh down on the currency. CSFB notes that the dollar has moved in broad seven-year swings in the floating-rate era that began in the early 1970s, and that this could be the start of a seven-year bear market.
�
Where does that leave us? Public opinion is not an insurmountable barrier to euro entry and neither, it seems, are the five tests.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in a three-page analysis, has just declared that the tests have been met and it has not been as seriously challenged as might have been expected. If this was a dry run for the official assessment, which will be hundreds of pages long, pro-euro voices will have been encouraged.
What euro entry does not pass, of course, is the common-sense test. One can argue that there is a serious "one size fits all" problem for euro entry � that it is not an optimal currency area. But there is no need to go so deep. Through design and luck Britain has a successful policy framework and has been doing very well.
Would that performance improve further inside the euro? It could � but it would be a huge risk. The downside of entering at the wrong rate, the wrong time and for the wrong reasons would be enormous. Common sense dictates that if it ain't broke, why try to fix it

sector

(05/11/2002; 20:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75443)

Two Mortgages on the Same House...Its Much Worse...

The Second, Third and "Nth" Mortgage [For the same house] has been let and then sold by many players.The IMF participating banks, which are the vast majority of central monetary authorities and their member banks, have lent and swapped gold and have double counted that gold on their books. The lender and lessor BOTH get to claim they own the same lent or swapped gold according to IMF rules. Never mind that IMFs own accountants object to this obvious accounting ruse.

This action has overstated the world gold reserve numbers by vast amounts and understated the huge physical gold liabilities of the lenders or those who were dumb enough to participate as counterparties.

That gold has been used in a large web of derivative instruments and must be returned at some point.

The Washington Agreement gold price rise consumed at least 1,700 tonnes of US physical gold. This gold was first accounted for in the West Point FMS report. Then, James Turk and Andrew Hepburn found , in the GAAP compliant US Consolidated Financial Report 2001 in "Gold and Foreign Currency" as an extraordinary $20 Billion book-entry item.

To imply that there is a painless exit to the accumulated gold derivative/loan problem is incorrect. The double counting of gold is another Enron-Style scandal waiting for the trip wire.

silvester

(05/11/2002; 20:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75444)

@all

I've read you for years now. Long enough to get a real understanding. Had time so far to only skim todays work but can tell I must take my time with this. Amazing information available right here. Thanks so much to all.

Canuck

(05/11/2002; 21:23:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75445)

@ Aristotle, anyone.

A little story, if you have the time. The underlying theme is my ignorance of derivatives.

A derivative, as it has been explained to me, is an 'investment' borne (derived) from an underlying asset.

Is this a leveraged 'bet' to protect oneself from the untimely movement 'away' from one's hope? I understand this to be the traditional commodity 'hedged bet'.I understand that if a farmer has corn to sell and anticipates to sell at harvest at $X per bushel he may 'hedge' production in the form of a put option at X-Y so that in the event of a downturn in the price of corn he will maintain anticpated profits. Speculation, however is another thing.

ORO once mentioned that a horse race is a 'deviratives' game, a bet. Thousands may be placed on 'Flash' to win but regardless on the outcome of the race 'Flash' is not on the auction block. Cash exchanges hands until the next expiration (the next race). In the next race, millions exchange hands, 'Flash' does his thing, the underlying asset (Flash) remains a horse. The house, aware of 'Flash's' attraction to 'interest', demands a premium, bets are placed, monies are exchanged and he gallops to victory again. Flash is a star, a money magnet. His inherent VALUE increases, he may win the race, but he wants a bigger cut of the prize money, his purse increases from $10,000 a race to $100,000 and finally to $1,000,000. In the second last race, 'Flash's' 'interest' is overwhelming, billions of dollars are bet for the win, his cut is unbelievable. His owner boasts that he is worth $3,500 per ounce. Now is this his real worth or a worth derived from the unbelievable bets placed on him? The bets have increased his worth, yes? The horse has a spill in the second corner throwing the jockey, 'Flash' has torn a tendon in his knee, several months to recover. As time passes, bets fly that he will never recover. A miracle prevails, he is running after 6 weeks. The final race of the year draws near, 'Flash' over 3 seconds slower in the 1 and 1/8th looks doomed but as each day passes his time inproves. On race day he is still half-a-second off his prime but 'interest' is unbelievable. Billions of dollars are laid, but the usual odds are waining. 'Flash' falls and falls, finally odds at the post favour him at 3:2. The horse runs his heart out but the tender knee proves too much, he loses in a photo finish.

Does this have anything to do with gold? I hope not!

I will bet you that gold is not $10,000/oz. next week. I believe that is called writing a 'call option'. I will bet you that gold is not $20 next week. I believe that is called writing a 'put option'. I have no gold to back up my big mouth, I believe that is 'naked' writing. I will bet you that gold is not $31,000/oz. in the next 50 years. Let's see what kind of 'action' this brings.

I bet you that gold hits $313 next week. I want to offer that bet. I believe I want to buy a 'call option'. So let's say a million people agree with me and want this 'interest'.
And a half-million disagree. So now we have some 'odds'. The 'bet' is placed. A 'bookie', of course, is going to look after things for his cut. Gold rises next week to $312.80 and I lose the bet, the money is sorted out, end of story, yes?

Ok, the following week the USD has ailments, the ME gets erratic, a host of gold bull rumours break and gold has 'calls' of $321. Billions of dollars are bet, managed by the house of 'Comex'. So we have a pile of money placed 'long' and little 'short' putting the odds at some 10:1 at $321.

Now here is the sticky part. The longs/shorts are aware of ALL the supply/demand fundamentals, and ALL the technical mumbo-jumbo, and ALL the political ramifications.

How is it not possible then, that the vast disproportionate amount of money bet, naked, covered or otherwise, not going to move the spot (real) price of physical gold?

I don't know if I said that correctly. If a zillion people are betting gold up and a million are betting it down, sentiment (and logic?) will bring it up, yes? I see gold stocks as a intermediate,(between gold and options) if the stocks lead up, will gold not follow? Are the traders not implying confidence and leadership in the metal? Does the old handle of buying a (good) gold stock and having a permanent 'call option' on the price of gold not have merit?

I am sorry about this probable non-realistic view of derivatives but man-o-man am I having a hard time with it. I hold an ounce of gold in my hand and I see the 'Real McCoy'. Leaping from gold in hand to 'paper' bets is proving to be a mind-bender.

Thanks

Canuck

(05/11/2002; 21:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75446)

@ R.Powell

The amounts of CB held gold is on the WGC site. Black Blade and I discussed the physical 'shell game' goings on. Yeah, 'swap and loan', 'shell game', call it what you will gold is being held, not sold!!!!!

Canuck

(05/11/2002; 21:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75447)

@ sector

You are a good man, Mr. sector.

Thanks for the reminder about the 'double -counting' accounting. Maybe that Phillipine CB 'admission' article is due at this time. The one where they said a pile of gold was leased (gone) but was still on the books as 'inventory'.

The article was part of their quarterly 'reserve disclosure'. This article was followed by a few similiar versions, including your aforementioned story.

Thanks.

Canuck

(05/11/2002; 21:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75448)

God fearing JPM analyst's new outlook for gold

http://www.cluttercottage.com/chart/bg.gifHumour

Max Rabbitz

(05/11/2002; 22:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75449)

Positive Gold Story and Leigh

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news_analysis/story.jsp?story=294261"Bullion for you: it's a new golden era" by Leo Lewis from the UK of all places. Positive for gold but nothing really new except for maybe this....

"The (Washington) accord has brought a new sense of order to the market, effect eliminating many of the sudden price plunges that accompanied the old announcements of central bank sales. It out in 2004, and many are expecting a renewal of its terms, probably for at least a decade."

Thanks Leigh, It sounds like it could have been written by Another or his Friend, Sir Douglas.

"I am virtually certain that the BIS gets its way by using our debt against us. This is the way all high flyers are brought down. The Europeans, Japanese, and Arabs have such enormous amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds that they can blackmail us any time they wish by refusing to renew these debts when they come due. If only about one-fifth of this debt were presented for payment in one month, it would close our banks. It is that simple!"

Mr Gresham

(05/11/2002; 23:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75450)

silvester

I think you've caught the essence of reading and participating here. We keep going over things from different angles (like Canuck going through derivs so thoroughly) until we get it, until it sinks in. When we look back just a year or two, we see how completely brainwashed we've been most of our lives, sleepwalking really, with regard to the valuing of our labors and savings by this monetary system. A mass hypnosis we are trying to wake up from. On this basis, it shouldn't be embarrassing that it takes us so much work and helping each other see our way.

It isn't just about "money", or about picking a "get-rich" investment.

Gold is just the flashlight in the dark, and a flicker now and then seems to be enough to light the Trail, at least on the wide, level parts. If there are any sudden drop-offs ahead of us, I hope someone will sing out in time...

Black Blade

(05/11/2002; 23:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75451)

Bullion for you: it's a new golden era

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=294261
As shares lose their lustre and the dollar rusts, the metal is dazzling investors. And this time it's no flash in the pan

Snippit:

As global stock markets falter, and share portfolios continue to dwindle in value, many fund managers are coming to an alarming conclusion: their wedding ring may be the best-performing asset they own.

We are now more than a third of the way into 2002, and the much-vaunted recovery seems to be having trouble taking hold. World politics are messy, oil prices high, equities look dangerous and even the mighty dollar has taken a beating. Is it a coincidence that, for the past four weeks, the price of gold has stayed above $300 an ounce, and is still rising?

Not only is this the metal's most sustained run over $300 for four years, but it comes on the back of a long rally that has lifted gold by more than 16 per cent over the past 12 months. It has significantly outperformed the big stock indices in all the leading economies, and strategists take the surge in gold as a sure sign equities will stay in the doghouse for some time.

But this latest rally has raised some serious questions about the precious metal, and even the gold cynics are taking a second look. The price rise is looking far more sustainable than at any time in the last five years and there are already analysts suggesting that the days of weak, volatile gold could be over. Bullion is suddenly looking like a serious asset class again, and the emphasis now is on working out what factors are going to keep the good times rolling.

Black Blade: Yep, it sure looks like Gold will be doing much better. Tonight I was throwing back a few with an acquaintance with ties to Barrick. He say's that there is some very serious concern at Barrick that the POG may rise to $350/oz. And if it does the losses could be in the $Billions. I didn't press him as he appeared as if he had already said too much. I think that is the reason behind the sudden change of heart at Barrick and AngloGold about hedging and their sudden interest in unwinding the hedge books. I haven't talked to my contacts with ties to Placer Dome, however, I suspect they too are beginning to feel the heat as well judging by the pathetic performance of the share price. The day of the hedger is over. If you have these dogs � unload them and at least get into something with more prospect of a viable future.

Zenidea

(05/11/2002; 23:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75452)

Velocity

It has been a while since I have posted and to those whom remember me I have this hobby of travelling from Australia
to Asia using Hong Kong as a hub to Gold/metal detect the beaches once or twice a year. I guess that I differ from most posters in that I can assure that gold is worth 600 + right now in that ( apart from waiting for the graph to move ) all it needs is velocity i.e heat !. So beat it, stretch it, break it, fuse it, talk to it, think about and FORM it and re-sell it and do it all over again. But perhaps I am off on another tangent?. Hydrogen gas and its invisable flame has its benifits !. and how much will the gas cost ? well less if one turns up the velocity dial :).
Black Blade knowingly knowing that you know asia somewhat
your post 75393 got me in ( grin ), in that one needs to constantly reaffirm to the usagold community the clout this yuan economy has.
All: and the wise up is that one may well find that the fabrication fee in Hong Kong is running at 2 % for 24 carat over the current international price/exchange rate.
Astonishing isnt it , but thats what a word like velosity does. Yes and fly it back if you get my drift.
One tip though , if you enter a jewelers shop in HK ,
Never ever say "just looking" as it will be looked apon impolitely. You may find 10 people greeting you with a chair and a glass of water placed under your nose within seconds and its not meant to be intimidating but just part of the culture so sit and accept the hospitality , point , and if there is nothing you like , smile, get up and leave.
If you are chasing a diamond with Au you can be abit cheeky and take in your own eyepiece for examination of the article but know your (IF, ssv1 lingo ) etc re: quality, cut and carat. Always get the certificate !.
Find/buy gold and procreate !

Aristotle

(05/12/2002; 00:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75453)

Sector, before I read any further into your comments, from your opening I see we have crossed wires

I posed the vitally important (yet rhetorical) question: "Where did the necessary quantity of Gold come from to write (initiate) these derivatives in the first place?"

And you responded: "Gold Loans and/or swaps."

Please understand now that the vast majority of the commentary I provided was about the essence of Gold swaps. In that light, the swaps are *are* ARE the derivatives in question!!!!

Now, with this understanding, how can you say that swaps themselves are somehow the supply of Real Gold that stands behind the open end (as opposed to the settlement end) of these billions of dollars worth of Gold derivatives? Please do a second fly-by of my previous post and appreciate the truth of the matter that for all practical purposes the Gold leg of the swap agreement is purely notional. With that, everything I've offered should hopefully fall into place.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Golden Bear

(05/12/2002; 00:53:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75454)

Canuck (msg#: 75445) @ Aristotle, anyone.

"I am sorry about this probable non-realistic view of derivatives but man-o-man am I having a hard time with it."Canuck,

To the contrary Sir, your analogy is apt, your understanding far above the average. Only the players have different names and the surroundings are elsewhere...

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/12/2002; 01:20:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75455)

Barrick Bankrupt At $350 Gold?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman051302.html
Whaddya know, after I had talked with my friend (with ties to Barrick) earlier tonight, I should come across this article by Chapman referring to Barrick's hedge book being seriously under water at $350/oz. Gold and questionable corporate viability. That's either confirmation or one hell of a coincidence.

- Black Blade

Belgian

(05/12/2002; 02:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75456)

Japan is at war with itself. (Kathy Wolfe)

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2918japan.htmlJapan and the IMF....
Wall Street *ratings* on JGB (Japan government bonds)...
Weak dollar predicted...
IMF PC april 21 / 2002...
Yen (Japan) is the world's largest creditor nation...
Money this "hot" can flow somewhere else on a minute's notice...
*Physical* economy threatens to go under...

Yes, Lady Leigh, the IMF and BIS are fighting about the crescendo of *systemic* crisis of the floating confetti.
See UK's adherence to EMU, against this background. Euroland (and some others) are fed up with the menacing overreach of the US (dollar in particular).

The inevitable awakening shock will be GOLDEN ! IMF and BIS are our guarantee to that !

Happy mother's day to you and all other Ladies around this fine table.

Renny

(05/12/2002; 04:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75457)

Life with Gold

Hi all,

I'm new to these parts and new to the whole area of finance and gold and markets as well. I have read the Thoughts of Another and am partway thru the archives of Friend of Another. I have a question about what happens when things finally crash which I have not seen answered on a level where I can understand it.

It's said that those who own physical gold will ride the storm better than others. So for the moment let's assume that the US$ has finally reached the end of the line and the whole infrastructure has crashed. Let's also say that an ordinary individual has no debt (everything paid off), has $30,000 in FRN's buried in the back yard and has 50 - 1 oz. gold coins and 500 - 1 oz. silver coins stashed away.

Since gold (and silver) is actual wealth and is not to be used as 'money' how does this person operate on a day-to-day basis? The FRN's would be worthless, right? And except for a limited number of applications barter (in today's world) is not really an option. So if gold is not to be 'spent' but remain a personal asset (like property, car, etc.) how does life go on? How does having gold as an asset allow one to conduct business? TIA

Renny

ps As I am having trouble with the concept I hope I have framed my questions properly.

Golden Bear

(05/12/2002; 06:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75458)

Renny (msg#: 75457) Life with Gold

Greetings Renny and welcome,

you are part right. Your gold bullion is to be held as wealth, and the silver used for day to day transactions - each silver ounce will have such worth that it could take care of many days or more worth of basic necessities...

In the worst case scenario where currencies are vaporizing everywhere, this situation would not be allowed to create a vacuum with no legal tender for any great length of time. TPTB will attempt to construct a new medium of exchange as happened in Germany in 1923... whether it will be paper confetti or bullion remains to be seen.

My personal opinion is that they will attempted to role over into another paper cycle - but will the masses fall for it?

We certanly live in interesting times....

Cheers.

Humble Pie

(05/12/2002; 06:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75459)

Post #75457 Renny

Finish your trip through FOA's posts'and I feel you will find most of your questions answered.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2002; 07:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75460)

@sector

Yes, it will be a scandal of colossal proportions. Billions will be lost (in dollars) but the liquidity river will rise. Remember the S & L bailout? He who has the gold will hold it and keep it. Those that have been preparing for that rainy day with metal and Euros will fare better though all of us will take some lumps. I can see it all now. Around $350 she'll blow up. Take care friend..CM

slingshot

(05/12/2002; 07:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75461)

A Message

**********************************If your reading this, and you forgot Its Mothers Day.
You might be in thr DOGHOUSE.

Happy Mothers Day to all the Ladies.
Slingshot--------------------<>

YGM

(05/12/2002; 07:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75462)

....DINSA MEHTA....MARTIN ARMSTRONG....NINA MEHTA....

http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/2000/1000fea2.aspYGM Note.....I've posted the entire article here for a reason. The relationship of Nina Mehta to Dinsa Mehta as yet is unclear. Martin knows something and won't talk. Who would! Saffra's death was a message to all who know too much! There are other Derivatives expose` type stories at the main page of Derivative Strategy.com........
Trying to play Sherlock Homes in the nether world of the Gold manipulation CABAL is dangerous....Bill Murphy is more correct than most would believe when he states...........
"THIS IS THE BIGGEST SCAM THE WORLD WILL EVER SEE"
___________________________________________________________

The Woes of Martin Armstrong
The feds say the former offshore hedge fund manager scammed investors out of $1 billion. But the imprisoned armstrong says he's only guilty of knowing the whereabouts of too many financial skeletons.

By Nina Mehta

Martin Armstrong, former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd., and now prisoner #12518-050 at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in lower Manhattan, arrives for his interview in the eleventh-floor visitor's room carrying a paper manuscript box marked EVIDENCE.

The room is a low-rent affair with a row of barred windows, stacks of cheap plastic chairs, and a chunky metal-encased camera that stares down at us from its perch high in a corner. Armstrong's fingernails are long, and there's an air of sour indifference about him.

After a quick handshake and chat with his court-appointed criminal-defense lawyer, Armstrong faces his guest, the small tape recorder clicks on and the interview begins.

To federal authorities, Armstrong is a mega-swindler, a Ponzi scheme operator who bilked Japanese investors out of $1 billion. According to documents filed in federal court last year, Armstrong sold $3 billion in promissory "Princeton Notes" to Japanese corporates, invested the proceeds in risky currency and commodities transactions, racked up huge losses and then concealed the losses from investors.

He was indicted last September on criminal securities fraud by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and released on a $5 million bond. He has been accused not of theft, but of misleading clients about financial losses and using new funds to mask those losses. In January, when he failed to hand over corporate files and assets to the court-appointed receiver for his companies, he was charged with civil contempt and incarcerated in the high-rise prison a few blocks from the World Financial Center. He and his two offshore companies, Princeton Economics International and Princeton Global Management Ltd., were also slapped with civil suits filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Armstrong, however, believes he's an innocent man who has been silenced because he knows too much. He sheds his nonchalance as the interview proceeds, picking up intensity; by the end, he's calmly skywriting accusations about the motives of those involved in the case. After nine months in prison, he remains staunchly uncooperative and, in his view, uncowed. "They think that by putting me in here they'll get me to plead guilty and cut some sort of deal, so it makes it easy for everybody," he says. "Bullshit. I'm not going to do it."

"This is not an unusual situation," adds Martin Siegel, his attorney, pointing to the federal government's willingness in the Wen Ho Lee nuclear-secrets debacle to build a legal case on speculation and rickety evidence. "It's not as rare as people think it is. It's standard operating procedure."

Chain of Events

Armstrong says he knows how the river gods of finance operate. He knows about Republic Bank and Warren Buffett conspiring to manipulate the silver market in September 1997. He knows the names of the vultures who have attacked third-world currencies. And, from his ringside seat in the capital markets, he has witnessed the impotence of U.S. regulators to do much of anything about this grim circus. "Things got out of hand," he says of the Asian crisis that started in 1997 and matured over the next two years. "That's part of the reason why, once this began with me, all of a sudden Tiger Management starts closing down and everybody's running for the hills�because of what could possibly come out of the case."

Armstrong also believes he's being silenced because he knows too much about the backroom dealings and dissolute ways of Republic National Bank, which merged with HSBC Holdings, the British banking conglomerate, at the close of last year. Republic New York Securities Corp., a Republic subsidiary, acted as the custodian of Armstrong's brokerage accounts.

When Armstrong was arrested last fall, the news nearly scuppered the HSBC-Republic merger. Republic's share price was punched down $10, and Edmond Safra, the bank's billionaire founder and one of the world's richest men, was forced to personally trim his takings from the merger by $450 million in order to save the deal. In late November, about a month after Armstrong declared he would subpoena documents and tapes of specific phone lines from Republic to buttress his defense against securities fraud, Safra was killed in strange circumstances in his home in Monaco.

Armstrong, however, does not think Safra was offed because of his case. He brings up Russian money-laundering and what he describes as a coup to remove Yeltsin from office. According to Congressional testimony by a Republic deputy general counsel, Republic was the bank that tattled on the Bank of New York's involvement in Russian money-laundering in 1998. But Armstrong thinks Republic was playing both sides of the law. "Republic instigated the Bank of New York deal," he says. "That particular money-laundering deal was given to the Bank of New York, and that particular deal led directly to the Kremlin, which caused Yeltsin to resign."

How does all this connect with Armstrong? "I would have been, through this civil case and the criminal case, the first person ever to get Safra on the stand," he asserts. "I don't think he was killed specifically for anything particular in this case. But Safra had a reputation for being involved in a lot of money-laundering�for CIA stuff, for Iran-Contra...If I got him on the stand, some of this might have come out."

The Safra connection now qualifies as spilt milk. But Armstrong saves his strongest criticism for Republic Bank.

Republic, he says, was worried about losing its banking license in Japan. The Financial Supervisory Authority, Japan's regulator, had begun cracking down on so-called tobashi deals. Throughout the 1990s, Japanese pension fund managers and corporates were underwater on their investment performance as the Nikkei fell. But according to Japanese accounting rules, the losses didn't have to be shown until realized. Instead of simply taking their lumps, Japanese managers scrambled after products they could swap for their crippled portfolios. Credit Suisse First Boston and a dozen other Wall Street firms answered their cries with complicated fixed-income instruments that carried short-term embedded options�instruments that were deemed acceptable at the time but that eventually led the FSA to accuse CSFB of illegal activities and yank its licence to do business in Japan. Cresvale International, a Hong Kong-based brokerage subsidiary of PEI (and the entity through which the Princeton Notes were sold), was among the firms doing these tobashi deals in Tokyo.

The funds for Armstrong's Japanese note-holders were supposed to be held in segregated accounts at Republic New York Securities. But federal authorities believe that when Armstrong started running into trouble, he dumped everything into one pool in order to conceal losses. According to documents, this was by William Rogers, head of the futures unit at the Republic broker-dealer, who oversaw Armstrong's accounts, at his client's behest. For his part, Armstrong says that Republic collapsed the accounts, perhaps to confuse or mislead Japanese regulators clamping down on activity it no longer wanted to tolerate.

The Princeton-Cresvale scandal came to light when a Japanese regulator noticed that more than 200 run-of-the-mill net-asset-value letters sent to Cresvale clients had been signed by Rogers, rather than a low-level employee. Republic Bank conducted an internal investigation, discovered that money was being moved around between accounts in a giant shell game, suspended Rogers and James Sweeney, president and CEO of the broker-dealer, and alerted the Feds. Documents filed in court last year by the SEC indicated that Armstrong had "caused" the misleading NAV letters to be written.

Since then, it appears Republic has cooperated with the authorities and has not been charged with any wrongdoing. Rogers and Sweeney have also not been indicted or charged with any securities-law violations. (Republic declined to be interviewed for this article.)

Armstrong denies that he cheated clients and ordered the Princeton accounts to be collapsed. Indeed, he lays the blame for all problems on the Republic broker-dealer. Its back office, he says, was a disaster�and the bank's internal memos will confirm that Republic knew about sundry accounting indelicacies and back-office gridlocks. HSBC now has a gag order on him and is trying to block access to memos and tapes of conversations he's seeking through the discovery process. At least one group of Japanese corporates is suing the bank for fraud. "[Republic's] argument is that it would be unfair that any discovery I had from the criminal case would be turned over to the Japanese to help them in their suits against Republic," claims Armstrong.

Not surprisingly, a number of questions remain. Republic argues that Armstrong pulled the strings for the entire securities scam. But why didn't anyone at Republic worry that 90 percent of all the business in the futures division was generated by Armstrong's Princeton companies, as has been reported in press accounts? Under what rock was Republic's due-diligence task force sleeping when the Princeton accounts were being messed up?

Armstrong's story is equally hard to credit. How could Armstrong not notice that hundreds of millions of dollars weren't where he thought they were? And if he lost tens or hundreds of millions of dollars by betting wrong on yen-U.S. dollar, as is speculated, is it possible he wasn't such a great trader after all?

Legal Eagle

Answers to these questions are not likely to surface until the criminal case against Armstrong comes to trial, which may not be until this time next year, says Armstrong's lawyer. Meanwhile, the prisoner from Maple Shade, N.J., spends his free time in the law library at the Manhattan Correctional Center, grinding out legal briefs and letters. He jokes that Siegel, his lawyer, expects him to pass the bar exam.

The former PEI chief has gone through about half a dozen attorneys over the last 13 months. Last September, he wired $1.3 million in advance retainer fees to three law firms from his Princeton companies hours before a court-mandated asset freeze. Some of the attorneys abandoned Armstrong's defense after Alan Cohen, the court-appointed receiver from the New York law office of O�Melveny & Myers, required them to surrender the fees. Other lawyers were fired by Armstrong. Although he now has a court-appointed attorney for his criminal case and another one for his contempt charge, he is representing himself in some of the civil suits being brought against him�and in any event appears to be calling the shots in his legal defenses.

Yet for all the current focus on his criminal defense case, much of Armstrong's time this year has been spent fighting his civil contempt charge. He now belittles this as a "side show," but over the months he has fired off a round of legal salvos damning the receiver and Judge Richard Owen, the federal judge for the Southern District of New York who is presiding over his civil cases, for various abuses of law and violations of his civil rights.

These documents won't win plaudits from the ABA for their display of dispassionate legalese. They're forceful screeds, written in seeming haste with a ragout of typos and mistakes, but with full citations from case law and the statute books. Armstrong doesn't enumerate his complaints in calm, measured paragraphs as much as hurl poison darts at all involved�from his former lawyers, some of whom he dismisses as spineless, to the judge, who he suggests should recuse himself from the case because of unlawful ex parte discussions with the receiver, one of his former law clerks.

Ego Games

In a series of high-octane motions, Armstrong argues that the receiver is a shill for the New York District Attorney, and that he has operated in bad faith by embellishing the record, misleading the court and manufacturing evidence. He upbraids the receiver and the judge for a string of improprieties, writing that the civil contempt charge "has been brought for punitive purposes with malice and indicitiveness of forethought with the intent to disrupt my defense, prejudice my case and deliver to the US Attorney a tactical advantage in my criminal prosecution."

"How the Receiver could not find a 6 foot suit of armor or marble antiquities prominently displayed in my former office is simply inexcusable particularly when he is demanding my incarceration for failing to produce these very items."
�Martin Armstrong

He maintains that Cohen has an "Alter-Ego" reason for wanting to be receiver. He believes Cohen has devalued key parts of the Princeton companies and inflated the value of missing assets in an effort to buttress the government's case "that this [whole operation] is somehow a fraud that had no means of meeting its obligations." Cohen's reason, according to Armstrong: he wants to bill more hours. The receiver is not interested in running the Princeton businesses but in milking "his new found money-machine behind the cloak of your Honor," writes Armstrong.

In a related vein, he contends that Cohen has not done his duty to properly manage the Princeton companies under his receivership. For several weeks last fall, says Armstrong, the receiver didn't pay the staff of Princeton Economic Institute, an independent research organization with various ties to Armstrong (which the court eventually declared part of his corporate assets), so most of the employees left. He adds that the receiver didn't cooperate with banks, accept credit card orders from prospective customers, or respond to a group of clients that wanted to purchase the Institute�all told, that Cohen's handling of business matters has been the work of a layabout caretaker.

Where's Livia?

Perhaps a few odd twists to this case are to be expected. Like, for instance, the corporate goods on the receiver's Most Wanted list. The items still at large include 102 gold bars (worth $1 million), 699 gold bullion coins, $13 million worth of rare antique coins, a $750,000 black bust of Julius Caesar sculpted in the first century A.D., a bust of Emperor Commodus, a bust of Empress Livia (the wife of Emperor Augustus), seven cuneiform tablets and other rarities. In 1997 and 1998, says one coin dealer deposed by the receiver, Armstrong was among the world's largest buyers of rare coins minted in ancient Greece and Rome; his purchases influenced international coin prices.

Armstrong's criticisms of Cohen are also fluted with a droll, almost slapstick disdain. The receiver mistook a calendar shaped like a silver bar for silver bullion and a gold-plated paperweight for the real thing, he says. These were not "corporate assets" and were not "hidden" in his West Windsor, N.J., office. He tut-tuts the receiver for not immediately locating certain antiquities. "How the Receiver could not find a 6 foot suit of armor or marble antiquities prominently displayed in my former office is simply inexcusable particularly when he is demanding my incarceration for failing to produce these very items," he moans. In light of such lapses, he wonders, "how can the court accept [Cohen's] declaration claiming he found no coins?"

After armstrong predicted the July 20, 1998, high in the u.s. equities market, the cia called, wanting to know how the institute's proprietary models worked.

Armstrong further charges the receiver with abusing his court-appointed powers by acting as his prosecutor. Cohen, he says, is helping the D.A. make his case by not forcing those who cooperate with his office to fork over "tainted" corporate assets. He points out that Tina Mustra, his former executive assistant and one-time fiance (who continues to work at the Institute), still has a BMW, an ancient coin necklace and other gewgaws that came from the same pool of corporate assets the receiver has since seized. There's a quid pro quo at work here, he says�her deposition and help in exchange for her being allowed to hang on to her goodies. He claims this is extortion, then reminds the judge that extortion by a representative of the court is punishable by a fine and up to three years imprisonment. The receiver, he adds, also engaged in other acts of bribery.

Armstrong has charged Judge Owen with a number of legal no-no's as well. He writes that the judge has displayed animosity toward him, that the judge is irreparably "pro-government," that he has no jurisdictional leg to stand on since this case involves offshore entities, and that his behavior has possibly contaminated "the independence of the judiciary and as such constitutes prejudicial conduct." In June, Armstrong filed an official complaint against the judge for misconduct, alleging that he had engaged in extra-judicial discussions with Cohen about the Princeton companies and that a Special Master of the Court should be appointed to untangle this case's hoary mess of truth and lies.

Bad Facts

Perhaps one of the more indisputable facts in this legal saga is that Armstrong is not a temperate defendent. He has not cooperated with authorities, and his allegations have kept the receiver's office and others on their toes. When questioned about some of Armstrong's claims, for instance, Tancred Sciavoni, the receiver's counsel at O�Melveny & Myers, immediately e-mails dozens of legal documents and depositions disputing item after item in the lavish wreath of criticism Armstrong has tacked on the receiver's door.

In fact, Armstrong's facts don't quite fit. The suit of armor and other busts from his office were not on the laundry list of missing goods that ultimately led to his incarceration for civil contempt. Corporate assets were frozen by court order, never by the receiver's whim. Armstrong's windy explanations of the whereabouts of certain assets were found by the judge to be a legal nullity. (A deposition of Armstrong's chauffeur, for instance, negated his claim that he gave the 102 now-missing gold bars to Akira Setogawa, the head of Cresvale's Tokyo office, in a New Jersey parking lot in June 1998.) In addition, the group of investors that inquired about purchasing Princeton Economics Institute was not taken seriously since it was represented by a long-term friend of Armstrong's who refused to name the investors. Receipts, affadavits, wire-transfer letters and legal documents buttress the receiver's findings and fly in the face of Armstrong's statements about the disposition of assets and the course of events.

At the same time, it's worth noting that Armstrong's cycles-based models have had some spectacular successes. He may now be mocked in the media as a peacocky market predictor who guessed wrong about his own life's work in a big way, but he called the high of the Japanese Nikkei in 1989 months ahead of time�the Nikkei peaked the last week of December as he said it would, then crashed like a tsunami, casting off 40 percent of its value in a matter of weeks. (This was the reason for his close ties to Japan's Ministry of Finance and why Japanese corporates clamored to attend his conferences and buy his Princeton Notes.) More recently, and again months ahead of time, Armstrong predicted the July 20, 1998, high in the U.S. equities market�to the day. After that morsel of prognostication, claims one source, the CIA called Princeton, wanting to know how the Institute's proprietary models worked. Needless to say, Armstrong rebuffed them.

A prison attendant waiting in the vestibule area raps on the window. Time is up. As Armstrong leaves the visitor's room at the end of the interview, he doubles back to ask a few questions about the documents sent by the receiver's office. Three days later, a letter arrives from jail.

There are additional conspiracy charges and new information about the markets being rigged. "You will no doubt try to portray me as some greedy thief who is secreting assets," he writes. "I am 50 years old and they threaten me with 25 yrs. I wouldn't live to enjoy any assets. If I had them, I would turn them over because I could earn more than enough outside to hire a 1st class defense. That they will never permit." Switching tacks, he continues: "I am the guy who knows all the dirty little secrets and how the SEC and CFTC will never go after the big boys because it will destroy much of Wall Street if the truth ever gets out. They want the average person to believe the markets are fair and safe because they regulate them."

Whatever the elastic truth of this case, Armstrong will eventually have to decide how fair and safe the U.S. legal system is. In the interim, he concludes, "They play a nice shell game. They keep your eye on assets while the real story goes untold."

Mr Gresham

(05/12/2002; 08:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75463)

Money (and gold) as a Tool

http://www.sonnet.com/usr/kidogo/witherspoon.htmlSome driving-around thoughts (incomplete, but hopefully quick) from this week:

I remember one of Gary North's essays talking about the origin of money as one of humanity's greatest inventions, or Tools. It allows the easy exchange of unlike goods and services, and holds value in order to suspend or defer exchanges across time.

Although I've worked in the abstract ("symbolic manipulation") fields for most of my adult life, the first good income I made in my twenties was in construction, and only when I had found and mastered a set of good TOOLS. It really made an impression on this over-academicized mind. I learned to take _very_ _good_ _care_ of those TOOLS.

Money, as a Tool of civilization's advancement, has the five characteristics of (help me here again, gang, if I'm off): Utility, portability, divisibility, durability, rarity.

(Found link above while searching for the 5th one. "Essay on Money by Dr. John Witherspoon" (signer of Declaration of Independence) from site's intro:
"This essay may have planted the seed that germinated in the mind of Roger Sherman and became what is known as the "hard money clause" of the Constitution, Article 1, Section 10.")

G: Gold and silver began in ancient times with some commodity usefulness, then added on the monetary utility.

Fiat paper certainly carries the first four characteristics (well... durability counts, I guess, if you can easily replace worn FRNs at the bank), which is why it gets its run, every so often.

("Utility", fiat only gets as a utility in its use as "money" -- not the a priori commodity usage of physical "moneys". Kind of a self-referential or self-validating "utility", eh? A "fragile" utility, rather than a robust utility.)

But, --- but --- "Rarity"... that one's a stretch. Rarity in MY hands, yes. ;-) But at the source -- the Fed's monetization computers and the credit issuers' ledgers, no. Only by some sheer force of collective willpower could fiat's Quantity have been regulated to approximate "Rarity".

So, we're being asked to use and accept a Tool which is flawed, and whose flaws are not being compensated for (as promised) by human ingenuity, but instead, magnified.

A Tool, not necessarily flawed, but, human weakness being what it is, and the accomplishment of deception and propaganda working as they do, the effect is to knock out that 5th necessary characteristic of Rarity.

But if everyone is forced to -- or chooses to (for awhile) -- use the flawed Tool (and all the houses are built crooked, or their siding warps in 10 years) then everyone using it sort of gets away with it. For awhile.

And then...maybe everyone sort of wakes up... for awhile ("for awhile" -- story of human history?)

Gold is not necessarily THE monetary storehouse for ALL time, or EVERY time. (Haven't read Jastram's "Golden Constant") But it is the Tool to which humans have returned after failed experiments with flawed Tools, -- who knows how the course of an experiment shall run? -- and the factors and signs pointing to a likely return in OUR time are in full array.

Waverider

(05/12/2002; 09:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75464)

SBC, Lucent, Rivals Paring 120,000 Jobs; More Cuts Expected

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APN52lhLpU0JDLCBMSnippit:
"SBC Communications Inc., Lucent Technologies Inc. and rivals this year have announced plans to shed more than 120,000 workers. Investors expect thousands of additional cuts as demand for telecommunications services falls.

``No one is growing right now,'' SBC Chief Executive Edward Whitacre said at an investor conference May 6. ``When will things turn around? Who knows? If anyone tells you they know, you better not believe it.''

Waverider: Some of these castaways have already found their way to the Bone Pile...the article sure puts the extent of downsizing in telecommunications into perspective.

Mr Gresham

(05/12/2002; 09:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75465)

Renny

Watch out -- don't let those FRNs get moldy out there! Probably have to turn 'em over at least once a year, depending on climate.

A question I've wanted to start in on many times -- where will PM coins be usable? They will most likely first be exchanged for paper.

There will always be fiat paper currency (think "pesos" here) accepted at some rate. And there will always be money-changers (think 3rd world street corners here) when differing moneys trade side-by-side.

If PMs get popular, every pawn shop, camera shop, bank, -- maybe McDonald's, 7-11, and Starbucks ;-) -- and even your local bartender, will be ready and willing to swap some paper for metal. And they will compete for exchange rates with all others known to be doing the trade -- they will also trade on their advantages in accessibility, trustworthiness, and discretion.

Here is where our host and his fellow coin-dealers come in for special respect from us: They are the ones who upheld the availability of PMs in unpopular times. They stood their ground.

In the tradition of "no good deed going unpunished," I ask:

When things turn, and the market flocks to new players, large or small, how will you remember them? For the profits on these small exchanges will be spread widely, and the newcomers will probably reap the bulk of them. Dealers like MK will probably have to make a new business model in the midst of a new market. May their head start now in slower times translate into future success in the fast new one.

slingshot

(05/12/2002; 09:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75466)

Renny Msg.# 75457

Got To Know When To Hold Them, And When To Fold Them.Well Renny, I guess you are asking what are you suppose to do once you have it. If it all goes to H-ll in a hand basket the saying He who has the Gold, makes the rules, will be truer than ever. This is in my opinion,it is just accumulation, holding, and selling of assets. The accumulation at this time has been the easy part. Get what you can without putting yourself in trouble. Holding on to these assets require a little more use of the Grey Matter. Security and planning to
use some,and hold some for wealth preservation. Finally the selling of what you have accumulated. This may be considered a unknown.
You just have to come up with your own plan. I figure that Gold is an investment/insurance and a vehicle use to get what I desire. If all goes my way, I will purchase 50 arces of land. When I first started I just wanted to get a 4 wheeler for the woods. Then I thought, I need some woods for that 4 wheeler. You have to have the assets so when opportunity knocks, you can jump on it. Afterall is that what all the Big Boys did in the 30's. They position themselves before the crash and got everything dirt cheap.
So it will be in the furture.I just want a piece of the pie.
Now I don't want to get too smug about things, but for alittle while I feel I will be in the drivers seat.
I am not a financial advisor. Just your average Joe Sixpack that happen to catch on a little faster than others.
You will learn to barter and will get burnt afew times.
There is more to owning Gold than just buying it.
This touches upon the moral issue of gold. Looking back upon history there were those who drove families off their land.
I can tell you that I have friends who lost land to immenent domain or for whatever reason the PTB drummed up.When I purchase my land I will ensure that it will cause no more misery already inflicted by those who have created this monster. I remember the farmer and the selling of his land, and the selling of homes on the steps of the court house in Atlanta just a short time ago.
Hope I made sense.
Slingshot-------------------------<>

pdeep

(05/12/2002; 09:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75467)

"There is no housing bubble"

Greenspan's recent pronouncement reminded me of the Zen aphorism that denial is an affirmation. James Grant puts it differently: "Asset prices are set on the margin, while debt is forever." I have been trying to come up with scenarios where real interest rates rise, bidding for the housing market comes to a standstill, refinancings come to a standstill, housing prices deflate, consumer purchases also come to an end, the consumer-driven portion of the economy stalls, and mortgage debt goes into default. The only clear thing is that gold, which can still be bid on by someone outside the US will retain it's value, while real estate, since housing is not fungible, cannot hold value as it depends on a domestic market. Somehow I doubt that the financial plutocracy will respond with the best interests of Americans in mind. Lower short term rates even further? Probably not, since long-term rates would rise as bond holders demand a higher interest rate premium. Bail out the GSEs? That would require a huge influx of cash, which would have to be borrowed from the markets, and interest rates would rise anyway. Monetize treasury debt? Same result. Moving along a more paranoid direction,(Why do you rob banks? "Cause that's where the money is.) One source of identifiable cash at this point would be people's IRAs and 401Ks. Make them buy Treasury debt at a discounted rate? Might cause some ill feelings, and the shift from equities to paper would further tank the markets (though it might bring P/Es back into line!) Outlaw private investments in Au and Ag? Aside from ill feelings, that would work only if those assets represented a significant part of the liquidity needed for a bail out. Any ideas out there on how this is going to play out?

Mr Gresham

(05/12/2002; 10:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75468)

Canuck: Derivatives

Your essay last night got me started on my next turn of the thinking-wheel (creak, creak, groan) inside the cranium: How does a derivative trade affect (displace?) trade for the underlying physical?

(And FOA has stated pretty forcefully that SOMEONE has to buy more physical, for the paper gold longs to have their "10-baggers". IMO, doesn't mean there won't BE 10-baggers in paper -- but that this time, it might happen in physical, first, or only.)

My first (and perhaps only) thought is to compare gold with a consumer commodity, like coffee. You know there will be a certain amount of coffee people will drink -- not an unlimited demand, even if it were free. And there will be a certain amount grown, subject to weather conditions, etc.

Then you may make your bets on those prices, without having to go down to the dock with your pickup truck and offload a giant crate of coffee beans. Subject to those criteria, there are not likely to be so many paper players that they distort the proportions between the paper and the physical markets.

Gold is different from coffee (maybe?). In just about every way.

It is possible to have NO paper market (ancient times, gold standard times). It is also possible to have a paper market swinging its weight around disproportionately, as everyone temporarily assumes that SOMEONE ELSE will buy the physical. (And in a down market, there would be less psychological pressure to actually pick up the physical.)

In a gold paper market, you're not betting on an arbitrage between consumer tastes and weather conditions, but on political upheavals, banking meltdowns, wars and stock manias, and use of the common public purse to alter financial results for the benefit of a select few -- all that healthy stuff. Whew! That has ALL the potential for an abstracted ("paper") set of side bets to get going.

Just as a war hysteria gets going over an Archduke's demise, and a scrap iron embargo (Japan 1930's), runs its course, and 10 years later everyone can ask: "What was THAT all about?"

I wonder if strong paper markets (intermediation between two items: a commodity and a "money", or between two "moneys") are a phenomenon when two "moneys" are each strong, and each competing with the other for supremacy. Gold and Dollar. Then someone will be confident to bet on movements between the two, believing he'll get paid off in one or the other.

Kind of the automatic "boiling off" period before a currency transition?

I can't imagine much of a "paper gold" market in Argentina at this point. Only a "pesos for physical" one, with daily quotes for immediate delivery. No futures.

Sure hope that "someone else" will buy all that coffee I've bet my derivative money on. I don't know about you, but I like to DRINK my coffee first -- physically -- about one cup'll do me right... (Anymore, and I'll just go on, and on, and... ;-)

mikal

(05/12/2002; 10:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75469)

@Renny-Re: Gold into ?

Just a few more choices you have for using gold: *** Hold as a nest egg wealth preserver. ***Use as collateral for a loan in the new banking system? *** Trade for new Treasury Currency dollars at precious metals dealers/jewelry dealerships, e.g. Centennial Precious Metals.

YGM

(05/12/2002; 10:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75470)

More from Doug Noland...

"...Nowadays, the government-sponsored enterprises - because of the implied backing by the U.S. taxpayer - have virtually unlimited capacity to issue top-rated securities to be intermediated through money market funds. This is an historic development. At the same time, bankers or other loan originators can make risky loans and immediately package and sell them to Wall Street. Wall Street investment bankers then create a trust to acquire these loans. This trust purchases interest rate protection in the derivatives market, credit protection from credit insurers, and calls upon a money center bank and pays a small fee for a back-up credit line or liquidity protection. Now, the trust has created the necessary structure that allows it to go to the rating agencies and receive a triple-AAA rating. Equipped with this top rating, the trust issues pristine liabilities - asset-backed commercial paper - to the money market, raising funds to acquire loans.

Through this process, risky loans are transformed into perceived safe money and, importantly, loan quality poses no limitation on money creation. With structured finance, virtually any type of loan - commercial, consumer, mortgage, prime or subprime - can be monetized.

It is this mechanism - with the capability of transforming essentially endless risky loans into perceived safe financial assets - that has so profoundly changed the nature of monetary analysis. And since there is basically insatiable demand for this "money," - the residual of lending - contemporary credit systems enjoy virtually unlimited capacity to create credit. That is, of course, as long as the perception of the soundness of money is maintained.

With contemporary credit systems cut loose from both traditional inherent constraints and central bank controls, the analytical focus changes. We must now be concerned as to where this credit is being directed - how this created purchasing power is spent. What are the resulting inflationary manifestations? Is the additional purchasing power going to consumer goods and services, manifesting into higher prices or larger trade deficits? Is it going into capital investment? Or is it going into asset markets, fueling bull markets in stocks, bonds and/or real estate?..."

GB: No wonder Warren Buffett won't go near anything he doesn't understand, this sounds like LTCM but on a gigantic scale...

Canuck

(05/13/2002; 05:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75537)

@ GB

Good job buddy!

From yours:

"We must now be concerned as to where this credit is being directed - how this created purchasing power is spent. What are the resulting inflationary manifestations? "

When, not if, the PTB lose control of the 'correct' channeling of money is the day TSHTF. A few posters have commented that when a small percentage is re-directed away from a saturated destination, say to commodities, will be our day.

Canuck

(05/13/2002; 05:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75538)

Dork question of the day

A little embarrassing, but is Palestine not a country?

Does this amount to a civil war? Probably far too simplistic a term.

I was watching the news last night and heard that the Israeli parliament is not going to allow Palestine it's own state. I heard that Gaza has a population of approximately one million Palestinians. What is the reference of the Gaza strip? West bank?

Any references to geography/history in the region? My manager who was born in Jerusalem (sp?) has explained the 1967 war, the land takeovers etc., but obviously I am behind the curve here.

TIA

Golden Bear

(05/13/2002; 05:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75539)

Canuck (msg#: 75538)

http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/world/A0861915.htmlHey Canuck,

Gaza Strip and the West Bank are Palestinian controlled territories, but the state of Palestine does not exist.

Found the above link for you on the fly.

Cheers.

Gold Standard

(05/13/2002; 05:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75540)

@ BB - The Perfect (energy) Storm

Sir BB, I must say that my outlook is not as "black" as yours.....

I believe that civilised society has the ability to change and flow as the result of the collective decisions of millions, slowly but imperiously creating the society that the majority desires, irrespective of the will, and the laws, of government (or any other organisation for that matter).

Let us call this movement of civilised society "the Collective". What it means (in colloquial terms) is a sufficient number of members of the Collective unilaterally opening their windows, and shouting "I've had enough, and I'm not taking any more!"

An example is the Vietnam war fiasco, where by 1973 the opposition to the war transcended the students, the hippies and the "peaceniks" of the period - it was the mothers and fathers of those coming home in body-bags, and all those who saw it all on television, who stopped the lunacy.

Today, the Collective has enjoyed 30 years of uneasy peace, and relative prosperity. The Collective enjoys their peace, and particularly enjoys their prosperity, which is substantively based upon, and irrevocably linked to, energy consumption.

My belief is that the forthcoming energy crisis is going to stir the Collective like NOTHING has before.

This forthcoming energy crisis is not going to destroy America - rather, it is going to be the catharsis of the Collective itself, the destruction of the "values" created and sustained for the last 30 years, the "nimby" syndrome, the warm-and-fuzzy tree-hugging syndrome, and all other socially and politically correct viewpoints.

You see, Sir Black Blade, the most important aspect of the Collective is its ability to protect itself, to ensure its way of life, and energy consumption would have to be the most important indicia of the Collective's general economic well-being.

The Collective, once it receives a shock that it never has experienced on such a scale before, will fight for its own survival. If this means a quickly and shoddily constructed nuclear power station right next to your log cabin, this is exactly what will happen.

I, too, fear the future, but for different reasons. We need energy in order to sustain the desires of the Collective. However, the current emphasis is upon "Old World" energy sources, and not renewable and non-polluting energy sources.

A significant amount of environmental harm may come to pass if the Collective has its way .... no-one seems to realise that energy consumption is price elastic (i.e. no matter what the price, we will still pay for the privilege of using energy), and that such general acceptance of price-elasticity should be steered towards renewable resources sooner rather than later.

Sir BB, not a criticism, hopefully more of a constructive viewpoint!

Pan

(05/13/2002; 06:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75541)

Around 118 countries including several in the Middle East lend more than 35 percent of their gold reserves.

http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=15227From: Arab News, SAUDI ARABIA'S FIRST ENGLISH DAILY
Monday, May 13, 2002.

Lebanon is by far the largest holder of gold reserves in the region, at 9.22 million ounces at the end of 2001, followed by Saudi Arabia with 4.6 million ounces, Kuwait (2.54 million ounces) and Egypt (2.43 million ounces). At 62.2 ounces per head, Lebanon has the highest level of gold to population in the world. The decline in gold prices recorded in the past ten years had led to a substantial loss in the value of gold held as reserves by central banks around the world. Global gold reserves dropped in value from $340.1 billion at the end of 1991 to $259.6 billion by the end of 2001, a decline of 24 percent. For the Arab countries, the value of gold reserves held by central banks and monetary institutions fell from $8.16 billion to $5.8 billion over the same nine-year period. This represents a loss of $2.4 billion or 29 percent, supporting the argument that maintaining reserves in the form of gold is inefficient in comparison to foreign exchange and other assets.

In addition, holding reserves in the form of gold also carries a substantial opportunity cost. Traditionally gold earned no return unlike financial securities such as Treasury bills or bank deposits. Although this has changed in recent years with the development of the gold leasing market, which allows central banks to earn around 2 percent a year (depending on maturity) on the gold holdings they are willing to lend to the market place, this is still considerably lower than the return on other assets. Around 118 countries including several in the Middle East lend more than 35 percent of their gold reserves.

Gold reserves have historically been used as a hedge against inflation and as a support for the exchange rate of the domestic currency. Gold is looked upon as one of the few assets not prone to inflationary worries overhanging paper money. The precious metal is liquid and is universally accepted as a means of payment and provides diversification as a reserve asset. It is also looked upon as insurance against such events as war, or the international isolation of a country, especially if accompanied by the freeze of the foreign reserves that the country holds with international banks. Studies show that gold has been negatively correlated with the US stock markets as measured by S&P 500 index for the decade ending in December 2000. In certain cases such as Lebanon, holding gold has become a legacy that makes it very difficult for politicians to even discuss the prospects of selling the precious metal.

LeSin

(05/13/2002; 06:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75542)

Tony's UK Shifts Closer To EURO

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/05/13/neur13.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/05/13/ixport.html
Blair's 'battle plan' for the euro
By Philip Johnston, Home Affairs Editor
(Filed: 13/05/2002)

TONY BLAIR'S chief strategists have drawn up a secret "war plan" for a referendum on joining the euro, possibly as early as next year, The Telegraph reveals today.

A report from the Prime Minister's personal polling consultancy suggests that for the first time the referendum is now winnable, though it admits that resistance remains strong. However, Mr Blair still has much to do if he is to convince the electorate to take such an historic step.

In a blunt message to the Prime Minister - almost a year after he won a second landslide election victory - the report says Britain is "in a pessimistic mood" and voters view the Government with "distrust and cynicism".

It adds: "People have a great deal of uncertainty and, increasingly, see less progress. A majority now thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction, a malady since the beginning of the year."

The findings are contained in a report on the prospects for a euro referendum compiled by the research consultancy GGC/NOP. Its co-founders, Philip Gould and Stanley Greenberg, are the Prime Minister's main advisers on public opinion.

Their report, which has been obtained by The Telegraph, says the "yes" side is still 14 points behind the "no", with 41 per cent support to 55.

But it adds: "The fact that more than 40 per cent of the country is now prepared to vote 'yes' represents a kind of milestone. We still trail significantly in the euro referendum but now seem in reach for the first time."

The gap between the two sides falls to six points among those who say they are likely to vote and narrows further to just three points once the Government has signalled its support for a "yes" in the nation's economic interests.

This means that Mr Blair is working on the assumption that he might be able to enter a referendum campaign almost level-pegging with the "no" campaign. However, the Government may be too estranged from ordinary voters - including Labour supporters - to sell the "yes" message effectively.

A "sizeable bloc" of Labour voters is growing disappointed with the party and there is a perception that the Government is "arrogant and out of touch with ordinary people". Only half of Labour voters support joining the euro.

The existence of the report - described as "a first baseline survey on a potential euro campaign" - confirms that the Government is stepping up preparations for a referendum. In the past, Mr Gould has been Mr Blair's most sceptical adviser on the prospects for a "yes" vote.

Two years ago, he said the "fundamental divide" running through the country on Europe meant Labour "will never create anything like a national consensus on the euro".

GGC's conversion to the possibility of a successful campaign is a significant political development, given Mr Blair's burning desire to cap his time in Downing Street by taking Britain into euroland. It also explains why some ministers have apparently been given the green light to talk up the prospect of a referendum as early as next year.

For its latest assessment, completed just a few weeks ago, GGC/NOP carried out the largest survey yet on the euro, backed up by "extensive focus group" polling, to establish whether and how a referendum could be won.

"There is considerable evidence confirmed in this poll that we have moved up to a new level of support," it says. "The emotional strength is still on the other side and we still lose but there are historic developments that have shifted the balance somewhat."

The report, whose author is unidentified, adds: "For the first time, I am beginning to believe this is a winnable exercise, with an identifiable strategy - and not one that requires that we remake British history and culture.

"Our ability to move to the next step will depend in part upon whether the Government is able to reconnect with many of those who have become disengaged from Labour since the mid-1990s.

"Creating a new bond is a precondition for further gains. It is also necessary if we are to keep alienated and perhaps rebellious anti-euro voters from rushing back into the electorate and wrecking the referendum." The pollsters then set out where current support for the euro lies and how to construct a campaign that would result in a Yes vote.

From the possible gap of just three points, whether the referendum was won or lost would depend upon the strength of the campaign. "Indeed, it is difficult to imagine moving ahead prior to an actual referendum campaign."

The report says there are powerful counter forces at play, not least the "pessimistic mood" in the country and voters' negative perception of the Government.

Yet support for the euro is rising even as Mr Blair's personal stock is falling because people have a more positive view of Europe. Since euro notes and coins began circulating earlier this year voters also increasingly regarded Britain's membership as inevitable.

"The sense of inevitability is a new piece in the dynamic, placing the euro on some kind of historic trajectory," says the report. "About 40 per cent now believe the Government's decision should happen now or in the next year."

The report underlines the important role to be played by Gordon Brown, the Chancellor. "Two thirds say if Gordon Brown and the Treasury say the euro meets the tests, 'then joining probably makes sense for the country'. This is rooted in an underlying sense of economic well-being."

Ministers will be furious that the private opinions of Mr Blair's private pollsters have again been made public two years after the Government was rocked by a series of disclosures describing the New Labour brand as "contaminated".

20 February 2002: Hain hints at early vote to scrap pound
6 January 2002: We still don't want euro, say Britons
25 October 2001: 2003 target for vote on euro
9 February 2001: Blair slip starts euro countdown
19 July 2000: New Labour is object of ridicule, Blair adviser warns in fresh leak

Siochain

(05/13/2002; 07:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75543)

UK in Euroland

Except for some unforseen and unlikely event,,,,the UK IMO will definitely be in the Euro block sooner rather than later.

I found it quite interesting that when Queen Elizabeth II spoke for only the fifth time before Parliament not long ago,,,,in clebration of her 50th anniversary as Queen....she noted about 6 or 7 REALLY MAJOR EVENTS during her reign....and one was the advent of Euroland.

This to me was a clear cut signal and blessing ....it is now just a matter of when

Basil

(05/13/2002; 07:38:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75544)

Gold Standard--Renewable Energy

The scenario you apparently envision cannnot occur without serious disruption of witless domestic energy wasting habits.
The planet cannot support multi-billions driving single passenger occupied Excursions at 80 MPH hither and yon as we presently do.

The issue may become whether or not the system will even continue to tolerate such abuse by Americans.One way or another I suspect it will begin to unravel soon.What will trigger this is debatable.

Agreed this should ultimately lead to sea change innovations -- major tech breakthroughs in energy generation and utilization.

In the interim things will become unpleasant.

Boilermaker

(05/13/2002; 07:52:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75545)

Energy Crisis- The Perfect Storm

Black Blade and Gold Standard

I have no doubt that an energy crisis looms on the horizon. It is forming (like a perfect storm) from conventional supply/demand forces and from ME politics and conflicts. The Arabs have the ability of plunging the world into a crisis at any time for any reason. The only thing that prevents them from pulling the oil trigger to send the US economy into turmoil is the fact that there will be worldwide economic collateral damage such as Europe and Japan. They did it once before and the resulting damage took years to heal. However, when the fundamentalists take control of Saudi Arabia all bets are off.

The most unfortunate situation for the US is that unlike Europe and Japan, who have always maintained extremely high taxes on oil products to reduce per capita demand, the US has always pushed for lower energy prices as a populist political objective. US oil producers are regularly demonized when prices increase and if prices rise too much Congress starts to make punitive noises such as windfall profits taxes. When prices plummet, no price supports are enacted such as they are for farmers. This anti supplier bias severely inhibits investment for alternative more expensive energy sources. Anyone who invests in alternative energy development does so at considerable risk.

Unless and until the people of the US "Collective" are educated to the energy facts of life our policy makers will continue to march us towards the storm. I see no leadership that will change this course. I don't even see the industry sponsored efforts such as Mobil used to advertise.

Like gold, oil (and NG) have beem supressed too long and will rebound accordingly.

So be prepared for a killer crisis.

Waverider

(05/13/2002; 08:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75546)

Energy watchdog sounds warning on oil output

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3IMJ4361D&live=true&tagid=FTDO9DHMZJCSnippit:
"Oil producers should prepare to increase output or risk launching the market back on to the switchback ride of 1999 that saw industrialised countries' stocks plunge and prices soar, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

In its latest monthly report, the IEA, the OECD's energy security watchdog, issued a thinly veiled plea to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to consider raising exports when it meets next month.

"In 1999 markets demonstrated that they can turn quickly, contributing to extreme price volatility and instability. Producers will need to make timely decisions to meet market demand," the report warned.

If output cuts by Opec and its allies - principally Norway and Mexico - remained in place, and given that Iraq has already taken 45m barrels out of the market with the export suspension it ended last week, OECD stocks would head for the bottom of their five-year range by the end of the third quarter, said the IEA."

Tevye

(05/13/2002; 08:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75547)

?Debt Free Nations?

I was attempting to explain some of the world's financial problems with debt (such as Japan, Argentina, US, etc) to my son the other day. He asked a pertinent question. Are _any_ of the worlds countries not debtors? Has every nation put its children in future bondage? On the one hand, we guessed at a few trivial examples, such as Monaco or Andorra, On the other hand, the only country we felt sure was not a debtor was the Vatican - but they don't produce many children so what does it matter!!

What say you all - where in the world is the future not mortgaged? And what sort of political will, (or collective) will be produced by these children as they come of age?

...if I were a rich man, ....
Tevye

Waverider

(05/13/2002; 08:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75548)

Silver Lease Rates

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.htmlThe silver lease rates are up again today and in backwardation suggesting a shortage of physical silver.

Smile Rich :)

Cavan Man

(05/13/2002; 08:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75549)

A victory for truth and common sense....

S&P USES operating-earnings data to calculate some of the most widely watched stock-market ratios, including ones tied to the S&P 500-stock index. The firm's move to stricter standards underlines investors� craving for reliable financial snapshots of publicly traded companies in the wake of accounting scandals at collapsed energy trader Enron Corp. The most controversial of S&P's new standards would treat employee stock options as a quarterly expense against earnings. The matter has drawn attention in Congress where Sens. Carl Levin (D., Mich.) and John McCain (R., Ariz.) have proposed legislation that would require companies to show their stock options as an annual expense or risk losing certain tax breaks.
Generally accepted accounting principles, set by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, set standards companies must use for reporting net income. But companies aren't precluded from publicizing other earnings measures.
S&P, best known for evaluating companies� credit ratings, has no enforcement power, of course. But its use of the new standards internally, especially when calculating such market bellwethers as the price-to-earnings ratio of companies contained in its S&P 500 index, will make its methodology hard to ignore.

Most immediately, the approach will provide ammunition for those who think the market is too expensive. Using current definitions of operating earnings for 2002, the S&P 500 is trading at a price of about 22 times estimated 2002 earnings. However, using the new definition of core earnings that S&P has just developed, the ratio rises to 30, officials said.
"When you realize the average price/earnings ratio for the last 50 years has been 16 times, you can see that the market is overvalued," said David Blitzer, chief economist for S&P. "The new definition shows that the valuation today is extreme." Besides treating stock options as an expense, S&P will include restructuring charges from continuing operations, even as pension-plan investment gains will be excluded. S&P's new stock-option standard alone will ratchet down its estimated earnings this year for companies in the S&P 500 index by an average of 10%, S&P officials said.

The move by S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., represents the latest twist in the growing controversy over "pro forma" profitability measures, which are calculated by many companies across all industries "as if" certain normal business items � usually expenses �didn't exist. Companies label these nonstandard profit measures with terms such as "pro forma earnings," "core earnings" or "operating earnings." S&P is responding to investor concerns about such measures, including that wide variation in how such numbers are calculated makes it difficult to compare companies� financial performances. Late last year, S&P said it would seek to create industry standards to eliminate some of the confusion.
S&P's new definition of operating earnings is particularly tough on technology companies, which generally depend on stock-option compensation more heavily than many other companies.
But the exclusion of pension-plan gains, in turn, will be more painful to old-line industrial companies with large pension plans. Moreover, S&P will include annual pension costs even as the investment gains are factored out.

"People will be unhappy about taking out those gains," Mr. Blitzer said. "Everybody has been living off the fat of the bull market." Because of quirks in pension-accounting rules, "even if you lost money last year, you could still show positive numbers by using a three-year average."
Other items S&P favors including in core earnings: write-downs of assets which are depreciable (a write-down is recorded when the fair market value of an asset drops below its net book value) and the cost of buying outside research-and-development services.
Among other items that it says should be excluded from core earnings are goodwill-impairment charges. Goodwill represents the difference between the price paid for an acquisition and the fair market value of its identifiable asset. Other exclusions: unrealized gains and losses from hedging activities and merger-and-acquisition related expenses.

Copyright � 2002 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.

White Hills

(05/13/2002; 08:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75550)

Rollover

I have posted before on the subject of the 1981 movie "Rollover" and circumstances today seem to point out the Prophetic scenerio of the movie. Its basic story is the Arabs getting out of the dollar denominated investments and into GOLD. The result is the collapse of the dollar and hyperinflation world wide.It is still available at video stores and if you haven't seen it you should as more and more it seems very possible. Could this threat be what is causing the US to tiptoe around ME situation.I don't know who wrote the screen play ,maybe FOA? It is Spring in the Desert. FOA where are you? White Hills

Black Blade

(05/13/2002; 09:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75551)

Saudi oil: How strategic?

http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20020513-8724711.htm
Snippit:

If oil exports from Saudi Arabia are interrupted, the world price could triple to more than $60 a barrel (42 gallons), at least for several months. How vulnerable is the United States and what should be done to prepare for this eventuality?

The attacks of September 11 have exposed some of the fissures within the kingdom. On the one hand, the royal family has been supporting, financially and politically, the terrorist al Qaeda to assure continued backing from fundamentalist Islamic clerics. On the other hand, the regime has permitted the stationing of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia to protect against incursions from Iraq. But the presence of foreign troops also heightens the danger of internal rebellion; it creates resentment among the growing number of well-educated but jobless Saudis, and incites the anger of fundamentalists against the regime that tolerates � as Osama bin Laden puts it � "infidels on holy Islamic soil."

Black Blade: Now this sounds familiar. "Interesting" scenarios are presented by the author � "Fred Singer". OPEC has no reason to increase oil production as the official line is that the economy is "recovering", so therefore there is no incentive to lower oil prices. Notice that Oil and NG prices have collapsed today.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/13/2002; 10:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75552)

A Rare Treat!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

BRAZIL
Brazilian 20000 Reis

Big Country... Big Gold
Over One-Half Ounce

A rare treat by the new Republic of 1889

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

Black Blade

(05/13/2002; 11:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75553)

Lease Rates

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
Quite a jump in Silver lease rates. Platinum lease rates are still quite high as Russian exports have not effectively materialized - no surprise here. Gold lease rates are generally higher.

Black Blade

(05/13/2002; 12:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75554)

Oil fuels US army role in Georgia

http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,714160,00.html
Nick Paton Walsh in Tbilisi finds that pipeline protection is a key motive behind a US operation training Georgia's army to fight terrorists

Snippit:

Anti-terrorism is not the only reason for the relationship between the United States and Georgia. Georgia is also the shortest route between the [oil reserves] of the Caspian Sea and Turkey.' An international consortium of oil companies including BP, America's Chevron, Russia's Lukoil and France's Total considers Georgia the ideal route by which oil from Azerbaijan and Central Asia can reach Turkey and the West.

The present single pipeline is soon to be joined by two others, more than doubling the network's capacity. American training helps protect the pipeline - and its steady supply of oil to Western cars. BP recently sent a risk analyst to the area to explore opportunities for expansion. 'The pipelines will of course benefit from the military presence,' said a BP spokeswoman. 'It is in British interests that the pipeline works. BP is a major sponsor,' Katcitadze said. The British military has been giving the Georgian army English language courses, for years, he added.

Black Blade: It's always about oil. Most twentieth century military conflicts in the world are partially about oil.

Waverider � You may find this is a point made in "The Prize".

Black Blade

(05/13/2002; 12:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75555)

US companies face new pressure on stock options

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3RI15951D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=IXLB0PYY8CC
Snippit:

US companies will this week come under increased pressure to deduct the cost of stock options from earnings. Standard & Poor's, the stock indexing and credit rating group, will announce on Tuesday that it will change its assessment of corporate performance to take into account the cost of stock option awards.

S&P has decided that for all companies included in its US indices it will deduct stock option expenses from its calculation of operating earnings. S&P also plans to detail how its new approach, which will exclude items such as pension gains, and gains and losses from asset sales, would apply to the earnings of such market bellwethers as General Electric and Cisco Systems.

Advocates of stricter accounting standards claim corporate America is opposed to change because it would affect executives' remuneration. Earlier this month, Warren Buffett, the influential investor, described the corporate lobbying campaign against reform as shameful. S&P's decision, which follows months of discussions with the investment community, will not alter the accounting rules but it will put pressure on companies to supply more information about the cost of stock options and other data. One person close to the group said S&P would be "active in trying to take this formula and promoting it".

Mr Blitzer, who headed the S&P review, also says in Monday's article that companies should make "a clear distinction between pension investments and corporate earnings".

Black Blade: I hear a mad rustling of papers in the accounting offices at Cisco, Microsoft, Oracle, Novell, etc. I am sure that these companies are scrambling to find other accounting tricks to deceive their investors. These rules changes could seriously impact corporate earnings reports.

Aristotle

(05/13/2002; 12:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75556)

The (Personal) Gold Standard revisited

In this representative democratic republic system of ours, we each have (most notably) four votes apiece to change the world more to our liking. Actually, we have those votes, and also the persuasive powers of our convictions to lobby our leaders for change. The sad truth is that we remain a tiny voice lost in a wide crowd. So where do we turn to improve the quality of our personal experience and interactions with the world at large?

As near as I can tell, the primary appeal among some of us for a return to a Gold Standard is for the integrity it would bring to our monetary system. At least that seems to be the prevailing perception, anyway. (A false one, but that's the topic of previous post.)

The truth of the matter is that if we pause to consider the monetary system as a whole, we quickly realize that it's far more complex and runs far deeper than the superficial quality of the coins that happen to be jingling in our pockets. Given the nature of the system, money (and its integrity) can be no better than the commercial integrity of our banking institutions against a political backstop that has the wherewithal to change the rules smack in the middle of the game.

As we've seen in real life, the form of our currency may be Gold one day, then cupro-nickel the next. You may vote and lobby to the end of your days, and if you live to be a thousand this won't change a thing.

So what's the next best thing? Get on with your life!!! Take a good look around, make the most of the situation at hand, and apply your energies where they might have meaning. Ply your trade and be a success. After all, the nature of your money is secondary to your real concerns. Or it certainly should be.

Sure, sure, the integrity of the Monetary System is very important to all of us. After all, it plays an important role in facilitating the human business of, well... BUSINESS! We try to organize our lives and our operations so that we can plan ahead and reasonably know that our future will be secure. In business, we do that through the wonderful invention of contracts. Contracts to build, contracts to buy, contracts to borrow, and any variation you can imagine. Our development of the Monetary System grew out of our human desire to plan forward. For future security.

A huge *huge* HUGE mistake that many people make, however, is in somehow confusing their personal security with the integrity and fate of the money they use. Note that I said only "money" and not "Monetary System." To be sure, our personal security is very much intertwined with the Monetary System because it forms the backbone of our network of contracts. But that's independent of the monetary unit itself. The System can thrive, and the human business of business can thrive, even as the money within the system suffers a well-recognized long slow sliding death by inflation.

Let me put this as simply as I can.

If your physical or emotional well-being depends upon the fate and integrity of your monetary unit, then something is seriously out of balance. You have placed way too much of your own life's future security on a throw of the dice.

Understand this: the integrity of the Monetary System is more important than the Money itself. As a result, (and we've seen this constantly occur in our real lives,) the value and nature of our currency will always be sacrificed as necessary to save the integrity of the System. Gold one day, paper the next. We can do nothing to change this, nor should we really care if we don't allow ourselves to be overly exposed to the effects of a diminishing (some would say "dishonest") unit of money.

So what's to be done? Readjust your position! Money is merely the ethereal middle-ground of contracts, and in our quest for security, this is no place to live! Put yourself on a Personal Gold Standard. Carry from month to month or quarter to quarter no greater quantity of money than you reasonably expect you'll need. Take your paycheck, earnings, income, whatever; drop it in your checking account, pay your bills, contemplate an attractive investment or two, buy some new patio furniture, and roll the purchasing power represented by any leftover money into Gold.

In the end, you'll find that even though you must chart a course through a life surrounded by "dishonest" ever-failing money, you can take comfort that your actual savings are "honest" and secure, come what may. And that's what you really wanted all along, right? Security.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

YGM

(05/13/2002; 13:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75557)

Aristotle...

Wonderful Post......Sage Advice......You said: So what's the next best thing? Get on with your life!!! Take a good look around, make the most of the situation at hand, and apply your energies where they might have meaning. Ply your trade and be a success. After all, the nature of your money is secondary to your real concerns. Or it certainly should be.

**Off to buy some new patio furniture and a hammock, thanks for rounding out my day.....YGM :>))

Rock

(05/13/2002; 13:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75558)

Just Rambling Out Loud

Greetings all my good friends here at the castle, I read in the paper yesterday that they think 4 possible nuclear reactor centers could be targets of a terrorist attack on the 4th of July. There was information gathered by top level intelligence reports to suggest this is something that should be put out to all goverment agencys but due to the last few warnings that didn't materialize they decided not to go with the media on this one.

The FBI apparently screwed up on the twin towers 9-11 because they did have intelligence that pointed to arabic individuals at flight schools that were possible preparing for an airplane suicide attack with the twin towers a possible target. Supposedly three days after the FBI gained this intelligence the towers were reduced to dust. I get so upset just thinking about it.

But regardless of all of that and to get to my point is that there are so many warning signs of dangerous uncertainties all across the globe as well as the USA which we recently found out. As a free democratic society we are so vulnerable from so many different levels of attack such as our food chain, water, energy grids or a host of other ways of sabotaging our vital infractructures. We know the terrorist are after us, that much we do know. And knowing that how many have prepared to handle it "when" it happens, notice I didnt say if. Even the Secretary of Defense says its expect something to happen again.

But yet so many of my friends and even some family members fail to take the heed and quit taking everything for granted. I keep telling them after 911 everything changed. They think nothing is going to happen to them and they'll will be provided for me because thats the way its always been. Someone here at the table mentioned the same thought a few days ago saying its going to be time to pay up for all those good times.

Anyway, knowing the terrorist are after us, they want to take us down anyway they can and we know the extent they are willing to go. How do you deal with a suicidle brainwashed manic? Look what happened at Pearl Harbor and look how we had to deal with them, we had to drop the A bomb because they were running havoc on us.

All i want to say to anyone who is contemplating on whether they should take the big first step and buy gold is that it will be one of the wisest things you can do for yourself and your family's financial security. I had to buy it also for the first time in 1998. Everyone here at the castle has taken that first step and we know it was a wise and prudent decision.

I know I don't regret it. I watched it go down to $260.00 an ounce and I got mine at 290.00 an ounce and did didn't worry a bit becuse I knew it was only a matter of time before it would shoot through the roof. I purchased gold for the long run not the short run because its not a good thing to have the day traders mantality when dealing with PM's. But i still love seeing it jump up from day to day.

Anyway getting back to my ramblings, we've been talking about that big house of cards ready to fall, the signs are all around us that we live in very fragil times and not to take everything for granted because anything can and probably will happen so be ready for it. As my good friend Sir BlackBlade puts it now and again, to prepare a food storage program and put away a little cash for a few months, get some gold and silver portfolio insurance and you'll be glad you did, your very life can depend on it.

Thanks for listening, I'm rambing today.

Rock

mikal

(05/13/2002; 14:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75559)

@Rock, Aristotle

Excellent work. "A few honest men are better than numbers."-Oliver Cromwell, letter to Sir W. Spring, Sept. 1643

Siochain

(05/13/2002; 14:20:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75560)

Hey...we're Polite Society Now!!!!

From the Daily Reckoning:

- How rough is it out there in the stock market these
days? Here's a clue: Despite the biggest one-day rally
of the year last Wednesday, all the major averages
finished the week in the red. The NASDAQ, for example,
soared nearly 8% last Wednesday. And yet the tech-laden
index still managed to drop 0.8% for the week. Likewise,
the Dow fell 0.7% and the S&P 500 lost 1.8%. That's
rough!

- Most investors aren't accustomed to this sort of
thing...(We used to call them "bear markets"). Stocks
are supposed to go up, aren't they? In fact, aren't
stocks supposed to go up at least 15% per year?
Something is wrong here.

- The stock market's frailty is as astonishing as the
gold market's resilience. It's as if a mad scientist
lured these two markets into his laboratory and
fiendishly swapped their DNA. The stock market seems
dejected and full of self-loathing. It rallies
occasionally, merely to stumble even lower than
before...just like the gold market used to do. The gold
market, on the other hand, is brimming with confidence
and vigor. It rallies and holds its ground...just like
the stock market used to do. Hmmm...pretty weird.

- Gold is very "well bid," as the traders would say. And
gold stocks are even more popular than the metal itself.
Despite the fact that the yellow metal slipped about
half a percent last week, gold stock mutual funds jumped
4.7%, according to Lipper Inc. Year-to-date, the gold
funds have advanced a sparkling 53%.

- The higher they climb, the more fans they attract and
the more vocal longtime gold bulls become. One by one,
the gold bulls are emerging from their bunkers and
attempting to rejoin polite society. The assimilation is
made easier by the fact that polite society itself is
becoming increasingly bullish about gold, for the first
time in a more than 20 years.

slingshot

(05/13/2002; 14:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75561)

Rock and Aristotle

*****************Great Posts.
Slingshot---------------<>

Chris Powell

(05/13/2002; 14:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75562)

CBS finds GATA's Murphy at the front in the gold war

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1106CBSMarketWatch.com's Thom Calandra finds
GATA's Bill Murphy at the front in the gold war:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1106

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

The Victorian

(05/13/2002; 15:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75563)

The housing bubble and foreclosure rates

I seldom post a message, and am content to lurk and absorb the wealth of knowledge found here, but I have to share the contents of an email newsletter I received today. I receive this emailed trade publication routinely, but am generally too busy to read it. Today's headline caught my eye as it concerned appraising properties taken back by the bank through foreclosure. The comments about the housing bubble bursting and the expected increase in foreclosures are so nonchalant it amazed me. Excerpts below:

"Unless you are in a very unusual market or have some
extraordinarily loyal clients, you are already seeing volume decrease.
Unemployment is now at about 5.7%, the highest level in a decade. It continues to increase. At the same time, interest rates began to move upwards. In part, this was due to the system being jammed up with refi applications, but that has now begun to decrease as well. What does that
mean to you? It means that the overwhelming work loads are starting to disappear. The bubble has already burst. Sure, it is possible that it can inflate again, but when and for how long? If you really know the answer to that, call me and we can make some money trading bonds. In the meantime, most sane appraisers will look to ensure that they have
adequate work levels."

"At our NAIFA Education Conference in Reno, Bill Pena of Fannie Mae told us that he expected foreclosures to increase substantially in the next 6-18 months. At least one of HUD's Management and Marketing (M&M) firms expects foreclosures to double in the same period. Other clients have given similar projections. This represents a tremendous increase in appraisal orders, but this work will go to those who know how to do it."

These views seem to substantiate the opinions of many here in the forum that the economy is not rebounding, and we are in for tough times ahead. The consumer, particulary many homeowners, have gotten too deeply into debt, and a great many will not be able to depend on stock market gains, or other investments, to bail them out. For many, it's too late to grab onto the golden bandwagon as it passes by, but I do believe the astute investor, who still has some money left to invest, will soon see that the gold rally is sustained. Market fundamentals have changed.

I believe in owning mostly physical gold, but we have recently purchased a few shares in a couple gold mining companies. I thought we were already too late to the party considering how much gold shares had risen this year, but since early April we are up 27% on one, and the other, purchased a week or two ago is already up 11%.

I'm trying to encourage people who will not take the plunge and buy physical, to buy a few gold shares. Once they see the momentum, I think they will develop a greater interest in gold, and hopefully they will do the intelligent thing, and invest in physical as well.

Cavan Man

(05/13/2002; 15:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75564)

mikal

Dear Sir: Mr. Cromwell was a butcher: a cruel and brutal murderer. Though he may have lived in a castle, I bemoan the fact that his memory is echoed here.

mikal

(05/13/2002; 15:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75565)

Retail sales hit

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html�
Story by: PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
Tepid April: General Retail Sales Up Modestly-- 5/10/2002

snippit.......While some analysts said that sales overall would better than expected, considering such factors as bad weather and a March Easter, they cautioned that there will not be a surge in consumer spending soon. As Carl Steidtmann of Deloitte Research told the Wall Street Journal: "Consumers are running out of purchasing power...Retailers are going to struggle."......Click link for more.

IGWA

(05/13/2002; 15:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75566)

"There's None So Blind As Gold Bugs With Heads Deep In Sand"

Expert financial commentators like Messieurs Taylor & Sinclair have a reputation for accurate calls in gold/investments but when I quote them (from the Gold Eagle web site) in a post yesterday as saying that the Govt will not allow its power to be eroded in the coming crisis, and that it may do irrational things - when gold goes to $1,000 - that are against the Constitution (that means banning the holding, selling or trading in gold, my friends) the silence here is deafening.

There's a simple reason.

Fear.

Many posters on this site have a big stake in gold - physical, stocks, paper, and all the psychological baggage that goes with it. You are terrified the government will do what it has done before, that is, make the holding, selling or trading of gold illegal. It's your secret nightmare.

So what do you do? Don't mention it! Don't even think about it! Ignore any post that has the temerity to bring it up! Bury your heads in the sand and hope it all goes away�.!! How cowardly.

Hello, hello, anyone at home??

Please, tell me it's different this time - refute my argument that they will do exactly what they have done before. Are our politicians more honourable? More trustworthy? Do they have the greater good of humanity at the forefront of their thinking? Don't make me laugh!

You - a small group of elite 'True Believers' - should be ashamed of yourselves. You know that the lie of fiat currency is going to destroy everything, and you roundly condemn those who cannot, or will not see.

But you are guilty of the very same thing by refusing to acknowledge what respected commentators are saying. How ironic!

Sadly, I see some of you repeating the despair of poor old Jessie, when he was confronted with the truth. Don't say I didn't warn you.

No doubt Black Blade will follow this with another post about the deteriorating world situation in oil or whatever, leading to crisis. Artistotle will implore you to buy gold. And no one will dare mention the unmentionable�

The truth will not only set you free, but save you from financial ruin. But first you have to overcome your fear.

The question is, will this post be enough to have me banned from the site (by popular demand, perhaps?). If you don't see my cheery words again within a week, you'll know free speech has been less than triumphant.

Regards all

Igwa

"Candles & beans. Get you some".

goldquest

(05/13/2002; 16:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75567)

I always wondered

what happened to Jimmy Swaggart!

mikal

(05/13/2002; 16:14:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75568)

@Cavan Man

Please accept my apologies. It was an oversight on my part that the quotation I used was hastily posted. You are right, he was responsible for many needless deaths in Ireland especially. As a leader of the famous regiment known as "Ironsides", he distinguished himself in battle, including the first civil war involving the Tudors, and the second civil war involving scotland. He ascended to the position as "lord protector of England" (He declined the throne.), through his organizational ability and military "genius". Some histories claim that the necessities of governing led to his cruelty and intolerence. But his regime was said to be benevolent by some, suppressive by others. Opinions of Cromwell have always varied. THe reference book of qoutations I use is usually reliable. But looking through my history references now, I can see that the words I quoted could not have been sincerely uttered. Thank you for letting me know.

sector

(05/13/2002; 16:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75569)

Mentioning the Unmentionable

@IGWA The banning of gold ownership, sale or tradeing will happen when......the banning of gun ownership, sale and confiscation occurs.

Graefin

(05/13/2002; 16:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75570)

IGWA, Victorian, All...

Not to worry IGWA, I got in trouble this past week so I've been lurking, sulking, and being sheepish too! :( Regardless...we're all human (well, some of us)and we are all redeemable (I think). Oh well, back to the original point...do what you have to do.
A few weeks back I told a story about an embezzlement at a major University in the midwest and cash handling procedures which changed after the embezzlement (and no, I didn't embezzle the funds). Anyway...after everything was said and done...we got new cash-handling procedures. Some of them were pretty lame. One day when I had gotten my deposit together, my direct supervisor came to me and gave me a brown zippered bag with a lock on it. DUH?? Before, I had always put my deposits in a plain envelope and walked them over to the cashier's office. I took a different path to the cashier's office too. What does this do? There is no rhyme or reason to which path you take. NO ONE CAN EXPECT ANYTHING FROM YOU THAT WAY. They have no clue (keine ahnung) when or where you'll be making that deposit. A zippered lock bag?? HAH! Got a good laugh out of that one! So...do what you have to do and try not to lose too much sleep over it! :)

Moving on...HOUSING BUBBLE?? RECESSION? I was under the impression that we didn't have one. REMEMBER??? Well...in August I moved from the midwest to Germany. With that move I had to sell a house. And, (of course) that just wasn't any house, but a house I had built to my specifications. 6" walls, large bathrooms and bedrooms, all the bangs and whistles you'd want to put into your very own dream home (which you can afford). The price listed on that house was a fair price. But I didn't get a nibble on it. We dropped the price $10,000. Still didn't get a nibble. After several months, I contacted my realtors and told them if it didn't sell within the next month, I would have to contact my bank as I could not continue to make house payments and utilities on it. Wanna know what happened?? I got lucky. Someone came in low on the house. The offer was way-low. So low that my realtor charged me only 1/2 of the commission on that house as they were the buyers and sellers agent. I skated out by the skin of my teeth. A few thousand is better than having the bank forclose. And though housing sales may be up, look at the bottom line. The profit. I took a hit on the profit as did my realtor...just to unload the house. And I'm glad I did.
I haven't a clue (keine ahnung :P) what's going on with the stock market these days...none of it makes sense. Simply do what you have to do and know that you've done your best.
Take care all...I'm going to fade back into the woodwork for a while and, perhaps, sulk some more and be sheepish.

Peace!
- Gr�fin

Rock

(05/13/2002; 16:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75571)

IGWA- Gold Confiscation

HI Igwa you must be a new reader to the forum because there have been written many post's here at the round table concerning gold confication. In fact you can find pertinet
informaton rigth here on USA Gold about the subject. No my friend the fine minds at this forum have addressed the subject time and time again and will be glad to continue to as long as there are questions about it. Thanks for your imput.

Good day,

Rock

RobotGuy

(05/13/2002; 16:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75572)

IGWA

There's the beauty of being Canadian. No history of gold confiscation. I don't believe we will ever see gold confiscation again in the U.S., as the gold standard has been abandoned, and there is not obvious immediate connection to fiat. If the nations leaders were smart, they would know that gold in the hands of the people is just as strong as having it stashed away in reserves. If a countries people have a lot of wealth among them, whatever form it may take, it makes a country wealthy by means of association. Lastly I do not fear confiscation as the gold I purchase is not tied to me with any form of reference. I do not use my physical gold as a registered investment, and I'm sure I'll be able to exchange it at a bargain while still benefiting, without having to be traced. Perhaps we all do not share the same luxuries, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that all goldbugs have their head in the sand. The impression that I've received from this forum over the years is that there are a number of individuals in here that are willing to listen to a variety of ideas and suggestions without being overly critical.

Cheers!!

slingshot

(05/13/2002; 16:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75573)

Hello, Hello, any one at home? IGWA MSG.#75566

You Rang?Cowardly? Lets put this notion of government intervention and confiscation to bed. At least as it applys to me.
They are not going to get one grain! Let them make it Illegal. I proclaim a bad law is not a law. If gold goes to ten thousand it is not against the Constitution of the United States of America. Yes you are going to have to make a stand. If they think they are going to take my land,guns, gold or any other thing without Rightful Due Process of Law According to the U.S. Constitution they have another thing coming. Just making a proclamation is not going to fly.
IGWA, You must have been wondering if there was someone who would stand beside you. Me. And I can tell you there a plenty
Who will stand besides US.
DON'T TREAD ON ME.
Slingshot------------------------<>

YGM

(05/13/2002; 16:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75574)

IGWA...

Hello, hello, anyone at home??You bet my friend...Lots more than most realize. Just watch em come out of the wood work whem Michael has a call to arms for a contest...Don't feel ignored when posting thoughts that may be on your mind that day and having them ignored, cause they're not. Over the years this group has discussed, Politics, NWO, Confiscation, Madmen Dictators, War, Bildebergers, Templar Knights, you name it. Even Tin Hats :>) What I'm saying is what you write (think) is stimulating someone somewhere probably even tho it may not cause discussion to break out. For many it may be old hat and repetitious so they read and say nothing or don't read at all. There are VERY many here to whom your concerns are important but many have also already faced their own perceptions of the coming reality and made plans for dealing with it. I know the feeling when you speak out and feel like you're talking to a wall, but then other times the mood or topic touches a nerve or the right persons are lurking and you get a good addition of others thoughts....
Hope this spiel makes sense......YGM.

Pizz

(05/13/2002; 16:57:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75575)

IGWA

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton040102.htmlGold confiscation???

Spend a little time studying the article at the above referenced link. Hamilton makes more sense than most.

Pizz

YGM

(05/13/2002; 17:15:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75576)

slingshot & IGWA......& "Others"

http://www.gata.org/Re: "Standing Beside One Another"....

The true meaning of standing as one against tyranny is best displayed by "Alain Despert" in our GATA print. Don Quixote Murphy and his army facing down the Federal Reserve Bank.
I'm sure all have seen it and many have one from making their donation to GATA...If not....well here's how to stand together 'Before slings swing or bullets fly'....If one wants to stand up and be counted then get your name on the honor roll with a $500.00 donation and get a beautiful keepsake print in the process. Actions speak louder than words in many ways!

"GO GATA" "GO GOLD & GO PHYSICAL"..............YGM.

Aristotle

(05/13/2002; 17:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75577)

Popular movements toward **Personal** Gold Standards?

Sir Belgian from Euroland, have a look at this as it pertains to deposit insurance, will you please? But first, I want to expand briefly on my previous comments today.

Hey everyone, look at those Brazilian beauties! (usagold.com msg#: 75552) What a great visual aid for my next comments! Old Gold coins and Gold bars are part of the world's body of wealth accumulated over the history of mankind. Along with all the existing factories, houses, bridges, highways, cars, radios, chairs, telecommunication networks, oil rigs, Persian rugs, fine art, Stradivarius violins, and on and on, Gold coins and bars are physical legacies of all past time, decisions, and human effort.

Along the way through the many generations of mankind, a great many products of human effort have been destroyed. Some with benign intent (we eat the bread we bake and burn the coal we mine each year), some accidentally (have you ever backed over your kid's bicycle?), and some with malicious intent (war.)

When it comes to permanence, however, Gold is king. Aside from the fact that some atoms may be scattered and lost (erosion of jewelry,) all the Gold that's ever been mined is still with us. And despite it's enduring nature while all around it crumbles or is consumed, compared to all the other ownable property of the world that exists at this fresh moment in time, the relative quantity of Gold is minuscule. Precious and indestructible, no other item packs a punch so obvious and suitable for representing liquid savings for peoples around the world. Framed against a world of wasting monies and wasting assets, there is no wondering about Gold's enduring appeal in this role.

Given the importance for an enduring functional integrity of the Monetary System (i.e., as a domestic and international framework for our fabric of contracts woven by the human business of business,) it stands to reason that the politically elected and appointed custodians of that System would in the course of time come to understand the importance of measures to limit the potential for collapse through elimination of elements of undue systemic risk.

Belgian, here's where I'd like to have you share your thought on the following.

Many students of free markets and banking understand the moral hazard that is brought to bear by the availability of government-backed banking insurance. Our FDIC or FSLIC should be familiar to most. If a depository institution finds in the course of time that it is or nearly is upside down, from a business standpoint there's nothing to lose -- the government will share in any loses while profits accrue only to the institution. As a result, it becomes rational for the business to engage in risky behavior, hoping to hit a homerun before the doors close.

Seen like this, government-supported banking insurance can actually add to the problem. Belgian, would you say such insurance is a outdated beast of the old Gold standard? In this day and age where people's savings (Gold and other real things) and their money is not the same thing, do you foresee any movements to officially endorse or encourage this separated structure of personal finance among those persons who might not be as enlightened (toward Gold savings) as the few of us USAGOLDers are?

What I'm getting at is Japan, for example. I continue to be impressed that they somehow pushed through the political process a reduction in insurance rates. That's damned near as effective as eliminating the insurance. Just look what it prompted many Japanese savers to do. Surely, this Gold-buying spree was not an unexpected outcome to the minds of the monetary or legislative authorities who were the architects of this new policy for Japanese banking insurance.

Duisenberg recently stressed. STRESSED mind you, that the euro was the world's first currency that had managed to sever its link to both Gold and to the nation-state. His important implication as I take it was with respect to the currencies resulting NEUTRALITY. Without bias it can (assuming free functioning markets) fairly price anything under the sun -- INCLUDING GOLD. It is also free from custodial management bent upon the sole benefit of a singular national interest -- its own.

From your chair in Euroland, what are your perceptions about the current and future state of banking insurance in the Eurosystem? My guess is that since they can reasonably expect to be ride high the next global wave of usage while the yen and dollar tanks, there is likely to be less vested interest to put their own people significantly into Gold savings as we might expect to see in Japan, or in the U.S. in due course where Gold savings becomes important asset upon which people can rebuild from a currency or widespread banking collapse. However, in the interest of eliminating moral hazard and resulting abuses on a bank by bank basis, might we reasonably expect a phaseout of high-value insurance -- if that's what you currently have?

Unlike Japan (again, how in the Spectrum (between heaven and hell) did they DO that???) I can't conceive that the political powers could ever bring about an elimination or even merely a notional reduction to our $100,000 level of FDIC coverage. However, I CAN conceive that the effective equivalent to a coverage reduction could be brought about during a time of hyperinflation -- the monetary authorities could simply elect not to raise the coverage limits as the dollar loses purchasing power.

As American currency gains more and more zero's like a Bolivian bank note, $100,000 would become well below the level of the average account, thus inspiring behavior similar to savers now in Japan. As FOA has told us, given the options, our political leaders would much rather have us save with Gold than to give our European counterparts a free ride by saving excessive amounts of euros. Meaning, we won't be officially eager to return the monetary favor all the world has been providing to us for the past half century through holdings of our dollars.

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!! This became a longer ramble than I intended.

Cutting to the core, Belgian, what's your unique view on the future of deposit insurance variously around the world?

Thanks, pal.

Thanks also to each of you for your kind words today -- YGM, mikal, and slingshot.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

R Powell

(05/13/2002; 17:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75578)

IGWA

How many do you think voluntarily turned in their gold last time? Just don't keep it anywhere where the confiscators can grab it (like banks).
This country (as in its citizens, not government) sometimes surprises everyone with its actions. This is the country that (in our time) removed a president from office without firing a shot. This is also the country that killed four in Ohio. Both sure surprised me.
Rich

Golden Bear

(05/13/2002; 17:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75579)

IGWA (5/13/02; 15:54:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75566)

To the contrary Sir,

your quote: "You are terrified the government will do what it has done before, that is, make the holding, selling or trading of gold illegal. It's your secret nightmare."

Yes, this matter concerns us all, and as you state, the unthinkable can happen again. I have been contemplating this very act by governments for a long time...

Also: "Please, tell me it's different this time - refute my argument that they will do exactly what they have done before. Are our politicians more honourable? More trustworthy? Do they have the greater good of humanity at the forefront of their thinking? Don't make me laugh!"

No need to refute your argument - it is one of many probabilities that may eventuate in the so uncertain future, especially when taking into account the nature of politicians...

Speaking personally, your comments are valid and I respect your point of view, as much as anyone else's, as long as the comments are constructive and for the benefit of us all.

Cheers.

YGM

(05/13/2002; 17:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75580)

PS: GATA PRINT

A little bird told me that because of his growing fame in Paris and the world, Despert prints sell far and above the $500.00 mark these days!....Money well spent for sure!

YGM

(05/13/2002; 17:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75581)

Despert Print...

Sheeesh!Am I behind the times. It's $750.00 now....SEE my investment is up 50% already :>))

slingshot

(05/13/2002; 18:08:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75582)

Taking of the Gold

Would it put things right?Should they tell us to turn in our gold, would it be enough to bail the government out. How much do they need in the first place? Is it just that they know already they are going to go bust and relying on the Goldbug to bail them out?
Slingshot------------------<>

TownCrier

(05/13/2002; 18:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75583)

A Topical HEADLINE: Argentina seeks quick savings freeze alternative

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020513/argentina_5.htmlApropos Excerpts:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, May 13 (Reuters) - In a major government policy U-turn, Argentina scrambled on Monday to find another way to end a despised freeze on depositors' savings after scrapping plans to convert the deposits to bonds.

With daily protests against the rapid spread of poverty and the deposit freeze while mindful of bloody rioting that toppled the elected government in December, President Eduardo Duhalde needs to come up with a replacement for the bonds-for-savings plan, and fast.

..."The government has been analyzing the possibility of using idle state assets to resolve the savings freeze," Cabinet Chief Alfredo Atanasof told local television. "This is one of the ideas. There is a very clear political decision to end the freeze, to free depositors of this worry."

...Almost one in two Argentines now lives in poverty, unable to pay for basics like food and electricity. One in four Argentines is jobless, and prices for everything from meat to clothing are being raised to offset the peso's depreciation.
----------(click link for full article)--------

Bottom line: Virtually unimaginable five years ago, this is happening to no less than Latin America's Third largest economy today. The shortest path to wisdom is to learn from the mistakes of others in addition to those of your own. You can't do anything for Argentina, but you can call Centennial this week to discuss a prudent portfolio diversification for your own account. Disruptive financial ripples can reach from shore to shore.

R.

IGWA

(05/13/2002; 19:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75584)

In Response...

What a polite bunch you are! I'm saying 'cowardly' and you yawn.. bit hard to stir up, aren't you possums....

Graefin.
We igwas' may lurk (some naked in the bushes but I don't want to be reminded of that side of the family) but we never, ever sulk. Or feel sheepish. So - baaaaaaa.

Rock
Pretty new to this NG - like months, and I don't get the chance to read every post, but haven't seen much mention of confiscation. And thank you for your input.

Robot Guy
Yep, I like Canada/Canadians. Spent some happy times there.Thanks for the comment.

Slingshot
Great sentiment, but the fact is there aren't as many (of us/you) as you think. And we/you would be quickly branded as outlaws, the enemy, by the gallant, unbiased, courageous, uncontrolled media.

YGM
My opinion may be worth nothing (let's say, jokingly outrageously) but I'm quoting noted experts - who just so happen to share my views�

Pizz
Interesting link. Don't think the 'slimy trail to the dark subterranean dens' lead to numismatic dealers in this case. But he does have a way with words, doesn't he..

YGM
Wouldn't it further the cause more for believers to buy $500 worth of gold?

R. Powell
But how long was gold hidden away, 'useless' while officially banned? This time around it could be for decades. As I said, your great-great grandchildren may build a shrine in your honour when they can use the gold you leave them. Won't do you much good though.

Golden Bear
If it (confiscation) is a real possibility, what's the point of talking about gold 'going to the moon' as being something to anticipate with glee - because when it does, it'll prompt government intervention? And why isn't it a topic? Answer: because there's nothing anyone can do about it. So best ignore it. That's my view, and thank you for yours.

Gotta work now. Don't forget:

Candles & Beans - get you some.

Cheers!
igwa

Jin-Yin

(05/13/2002; 19:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75585)

Retrospection and contemplation

There have been many fine posts about our money, monetary system, current fear of further attacks and life in general as related to gold purchasing and piece of mind. We do need balance in our lives and to dote on fear is human but not a permanent condition if attended to in a deliberate and conscious way. This is probably old hat for most but maybe some will be interested.

It was suggested that people who crash planes into buildings are brainwashed. Indeed a few other descriptive words can describe such people and their acts like fanatical and the list goes on. On the other hand, only once the veil is lifted and we see through much of what we are told by the corporate media as being woefully lacking in facts and content, are we less at fault in being conditioned to someone else's rendition of the facts. The Japanese and their re-written history books, which so upset us, have good company in all Western schools of thought. Label this state of affairs if you must however the irony of thinking we stand the moral high ground without all the facts is dangerous and the effects of this collective thinking have and will continue to be so.

Ramblings for sure but balance is very important in these interesting times. Fear is our collective enemy and used against us to control our thinking and worldview as the �Collective�. Break this cycle of fear �Individually� and begin to see a whole new world. In many respects, it is not a pretty world but being afraid of what one digs up only exacerbates the situation. Embracing it and moving on only heals the fear and disposes of it in short order. What may finally emerge is a world that you are a citizen of and any civilian so called �collateral damage� in its many forms is upsetting and intolerable. The underlying root cause needs to be understood and only conscious thought and discussion about it can mend it with both sides winning in the end.

Be well in spirit, mind and body. A few choice beers might help too.

TownCrier

(05/13/2002; 19:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75586)

From USAGOLD Newswire: Behind the UK euro referendum

http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2002/05/14/cneuro14.xml&sSheet=/money/2002/05/14/ixcity.htmlArticle excerpts:

The findings of an in-depth survey by the political research consultancy GGC/NOP excited interest on both sides of the euro divide yesterday. ... "For the first time, I am beginning to believe this is a winnable exercise, with an identifiable strategy - and not one that requires that we remake British history and culture."

Lord Marshall, chairman of Britain in Europe, said: "Since the launch of euro notes and coins in January, the benefits of the single currency have become more obvious and the costs of isolation for Britain more apparent."

David Jordan, chairman and managing director of Philips Electronics (UK), said: "Businesses in the eurozone have now eliminated currency volatility with their most important trading partners and are enjoying increased trading opportunities and reduced costs."

Charles Kennedy, leader of the Liberal Democrats, said the Government should call an immediate referendum.
"The euro, despite gloomy predictions from anti-Europeans, has proved to be a success. We cannot afford to be isolated from our biggest and closest trading partner any longer." He added: "It's time to show some leadership and end this indecision."
----------(click URL for ful article)------------

Bottom line: No talk of "dollarization".

R.

Ozzie

(05/13/2002; 19:26:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75587)

AragornIII, FOA, Farfel....

I am new. But I miss these guys. Thank you again Randy for the priviledge.

darkhorse

(05/13/2002; 19:29:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75588)

@IGWA

One thought: Just because you have one idea or another (comes across here as ranting) doesn't necessarily make you right! Where do you get this arrogant attitude that something or other will happen just because you think it will happen?! You sling a bunch of, uh, "stuff" around here, but you don't have any more insight to the future than anybody else. And as for the condescending attitude and name calling, I think everybody knows where that can go!

Castle staff: Sorry for the tone, but I get just a bit indignant when somebody tries to come across as some kind of authority figure, and it's plainly obvious they don't have much more to stand on than what they've piled up!

Cometose

(05/13/2002; 19:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75589)

IGWA/re: GOLD BUGS WITH OUR HEADS IN THE SAND.

I Suppose that we do owe something to our government for the good that it has done and established in all of the assurances that we have in the constitution. I know ...
the common good ... liberty and justice for all....we have the space program ....and the technology that comes out of that .....like TANG... and maybe microchips....Did ya know Laddy ..that according to my understanding we don't know who is responsible for the that innovation... but back to what we owe the government over and above our taxes .....
because they supply is infrastructure in many ways and more particularly the defence of our nation (the armed services )to secure the blessings of liberty....We owe our government our blind loyalty........because of the great way of life we WASPS have going for us with our nice tv era families and our nice tv era suburbs with our nice tv era suburbans parked in the driveway ....what a great country .....especially california where the government people have totally turned upside down one of the heretofor greatest economies in our country and then there's Missouri where the legislators obviously had an accident in the budget...but we have to have patience and be sensitive especially in these days because after all the system is run by peopls and after all we are all human.....hmmm....
Oh and there's Alabama and Texas and New Jersey and er uh the list may just go on and on.....So we live in this country and therefore we who are all sojourners here on the world in the universe should walk in blind devotion , commitment , respect , and allegiance to people who are running (collectively) this nation state.....Well I sure feel secure .....but I 've been here before and I found that the one thing that I thought would last forever that was dependent on the actions of someone else wound up evaporating right before my eyes ....I would say that i had developed a false sense of security in that relationship with that other entity and that entity's vested interests did not wind up being parallel with mine..... No, IGWA, I don't think you can go forward on the ride we are taking without preparing for the future.....that means taking care of no 1..... you and your anciliaries....I used to have a real respectful image of the country but that is all related to the theme of freedom and because of the way our government has been allowed to run recklessly out of control , our progeny will be subject to more slavery than we are because of the obligations that they will carry as the beasts of burden of OUR GREAT COUNTRY >>> There is still greatness to come because the purpose of this country has not born its full fruit yet....that does not mean that we should not take our citizenship in the universe as seriously and our bid for autonomy and autonomous thinkers without the security blanket of the identity of some nation state having its brand ( you know : as in cattle brand) on us.
I do believe the world is changing and whatever the US DOES and whatever the control freaks in washington decide : that is what they will do .....but they do not necessarily have the option to do it to me....if I postion myself correctly..I wonder what Thoreau (sp?) would say about the way things are today or some of the other great thinkers of the early colonialist era..... I'd bet that they could spew for days about many , many issues that they would identify in our society....and do you know what .... no one would ever know who they are if they showed up in our time.... they would not be heard ...nor given any platform to speak ....a voice..because there would be no hearers...interested in what they had to say.....they would be labeled eccentrics...
because they think too much ....instead of believing what they see on tv ,,,hear on the news ...and taking at face value that everything is wonderful out there in lala land and our future is secure in the direction our leaders have lead us to .....you know someone once said that the direction that any society goes is based on what questions are being asked....the questions that are being asked in our society are asked in the media :movies music and tv and technology primarily.
those questions that are being allowed are controlled by those who control those media .
I don't expect the beauty of the dream that is America which was born in the minds of our forefathers to last except in the imaginations of the citizens ....but I dont think that beautiful hope and dream and promise is what the guys and gals who are running the country have in mind most of the time ....because not many of our representatives think too much further out than the next election ....that makes the long term prospects ...... GRIM>>..their horizon is really short term and based on them , them , them , and their now, now, now agenda.....there is not very much vision happening out there ......the bible says that where there is not vision that the people give themselves over to un restrained behavior....except in Washinton.... In washington , in congress, in our regulatory bodies ,,'sec ,,nasd,,etc, etc everyone is very, good above board , honest citizens...
they just don't know how to take care of our money with very much respect....and live in fiscal responsibility.....
Get in Governement and Print and spend and collect your perks , salary and pension... I am kind of slow but I have learned thankfully to be able to see through a lot of the idealistic images our society and gov't try to cram down our throats....I have also got a realistic approach that includes backing myself up and covering the backs of my children....and one of the ways that I have learned to secure the blessings of liberty for my children is to follow the example of financial success stories who have proven themselves year in and year out.... like Warren Buffett......He bought silver ....20% of the world supply ...
Hmmm wonder why old mr value did that mmm? I couln't come up with an original thought that week of how to make a bunch of money ....so I just followed Warren's lead...and My GOD MAN , do you know what Warren did with that silver...
he sent it to warehouses in England because of their privacy laws there .....Well what an unpatriotic act.....
No ,,, he's a business man and he is looking out for no 1 and for no 1`'s investors. at bershire hathaway...his citizenship is not bound to brown nosing some idea of some ivory tower government somewhere ....reminds me of the wizard standing behind the curtain in the wizard of oz....

watch out for the wizard ..... you might be disappointed when you find out what is really behind the curtain....

Black Blade

(05/13/2002; 20:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75590)

Monday's Stock Market WrapUp - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
The Reality of real

Snippit:

For the financial markets, perceptions are often times more important than facts. What investors perceive to be reality is more important than reality itself. The fact that real earnings for corporate profits peaked back in 1997 and have been heading down ever since isn't important. What matters most in this market are analysts� expectations. Companies meeting or beating analyst estimates are what are driving stock prices. Forget the trend in company earnings heading straight down since 1997. It also doesn't matter how companies are achieving those earnings or what is happening to the company's business plan. For example, GE hit its earnings targets, but only as a result of share buybacks. The result is the company debt structure is now over $100 billion and its debt to equity ratios have fallen, leaving only a $60 billion equity cushion. The company has spent $30 billion buying back its expensively traded stock using $30 billion in cash to do so. Without those share buybacks, the earnings growth rates would be much smaller. GE is meeting expectations, but it is doing so by leveraging up its balance sheet.

Time for John Q to Wise Up

With no pent up consumer or corporate demand to help drive the economy, the best scenario we are looking at may be stagflation, which is mediocre economic growth combined with rising inflation. The government is expected to be deal with this by increased deficit spending and a very loose monetary policy by the Fed. Historically, a loose monetary policy usually accompanies budget deficits, so inflationary expectations will most surely rise. It remains only a matter of time before that hoard of money shows up somewhere. The next question is where will it land? I believe the next landing for the money hive is going to be on raw materials. Up until recently, raw materials have been in a multi-decade long bear market. But with scarcity becoming an issue for many commodities, especially energy, and the metals, things look like they are about to change. The money hive, which keeps expanding by the Fed's loose monetary policy, keeps getting bigger. It has already driven up the housing market after first driving up the stock market. Raw materials, and especially gold and silver, are about to become the next big thing. As investors mindlessly chase evaporating earnings, they remain clueless to the new bull market in precious metals that keeps rising to new highs. I suspect when gold breaks through $400, $500, and $600, they will finally begin to take notice.

Black Blade: Of course analysts earnings estimates have been lowered to the point that it is difficult for many corporations not to meet or beat these numbers. I am amused at the rising stock market indices today as I watch the few players still in the game grasping at straws. Trading volume is pathetically low and most are just biding their time standing on the sidelines awaiting a reason to get back into the game. So far they have been disappointed. Today petroleum prices rose again pressuring corporate bottom lines and working as an additional tax on the frustrated consumer. "Interesting Times"

Golden Bear

(05/13/2002; 20:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75591)

Aristotle (5/13/02; 12:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75556)

Greetings Aristotle,

wonderful post Sir,

your quote:

"...Sure, sure, the integrity of the Monetary System is very important to all of us. After all, it plays an important role in facilitating the human business of, well... BUSINESS! We try to organize our lives and our operations so that we can plan ahead and reasonably know that our future will be secure. In business, we do that through the wonderful invention of contracts. Contracts to build, contracts to buy, contracts to borrow, and any variation you can imagine. Our development of the Monetary System grew out of our human desire to plan forward. For future security..."

I heard on BBC radio yesterday an interview with an economist regarding Argentina. His point was that the currency turmoil and the reactions of the governments put in place over the last few months have shredded the fabric of business to the point that existing contracts were almost useless.

Thank you for taking us into deeper and more subtle paths along the gold trail.

Cheers.

slingshot

(05/13/2002; 20:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75592)

IGWA MSG.# 75584

*********************Have some Faith IGWA, There are plenty more of us. As to being called an enemy/outlaw by the media/Government.

Just wait till they impose all those exectative orders. There will be a reversal in outlook.

Slingshot

YGM

(05/13/2002; 20:44:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75593)

Sennholz's Quote this Week........Another Depression? ...YBYA!

They're always excerpts from past articles that are relevant to the times....Quote of the Week

(from the Writings of Professor Sennholz:

The Week of May 12, 2002
The U.S. Dollar:
"Throughout the Great Depression the power of government over the people's money was still limited. Until 1933 the domestic gold standard imposed severe restraints on government's ability to inflate and depreciate the currency; after 1933 the international gold standard continued to impose some restraints. Today, the U.S. dollar is floating freely in an ocean of paper monies, manipulated by Federal Reserve officials, and subject to all the vagaries of international politics. It has lost more than 90 percent of its 1929 purchasing power and is losing more every day."
The Great Depression, Will we Repeat It?, 1988, pp. 3,4.

Black Blade

(05/13/2002; 20:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75594)

Numbers get massaged in corporate accounting

http://www.uniontrib.com/news/business/20020512-9999_1b12account.html
Snippit:

In the world of business accounting, companies are skilled at reworking numbers to improve their results. An expense doesn't have to be an expense. Money can appear or disappear. The bottom line can be laid out in dozens of ways.

Black Blade: Ditto!

Canuck

(05/13/2002; 21:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75595)

Ramblings

Mr. Gresham and I have had a small chat in recent days about leverage, the ability to control vast sums of money with 'little down'.

I have had a chat with the neighbour who moved from the 'local-yocal' neighbourhood into 'ritsy-land' about a year ago. Apparently his bet is paying off. Borrowing 5% (in mortgage money) to secure +5% in equity appreciation is a winning proprosition. With stock market returns less than 5% where does one 'ride' the money? Until there is a better ROI why would the real estate market crash? Who was it that said that 'directed' inflation is nice to catch, 'real time'!!

I chatted with the Mrs. tonight, the $10,000 from the 'equity' in the house has paid off handsomely in gold equities this year. Mr. Neighbour is behind the eight-ball and I have let hin know (in a nice way).

Few people understand leverage, I know I don't. But I'm beginning to get a sense. If one can use a couple bucks at a nominal interest to gain interest + X one is ahead. If one can control a vast sum of money by using a fraction of assets, the further the limit is pushed the better.

An extraordinary concept. Why would one borrow X dollars at 5% to gain 6%? Why not mortgage the farm at 5% to gain 100%? Until the 'game' reverses?

Past performances are not indictative of future returns, blah, blah, blah.

Question?

The USD is overvalued, yes? Mathematically yes. Realistically? So the USD drops, the EURO/YEN appreciates to what end? Japan flops large, the EURO is stillborn and another round of nothing ensues.

Have we heard (from BB perhaps?) that the currency race is a race to the bottom? Japan managed to get the YEN to some 133/dollar and they are not happy. It has rebounded to what, 128/125? 130? Japan(the economy) will not rebound until 140. What have some experts said, 140/145/150?

Then comes China, Korea, etc., the race to the bottom.

Question. If Japan et al (currency) are falling off a cliff is the USD not rising? Converse, if the USD is falling as some predict, is not the YEN/Euro rising? How does an export lead country rebound if the currency is rising? Has Japan and others, not stated that their rebound is centered around an export lead recovery.

Is it not safe to say that the USD and the YEN cannot drop simultaneously? So who is the bigger loser? The USD cannot import forever so the story goes and Japan cannot lead an export lead recovery at YEN > 130, yes?

Import/export; up/down which will it be? It can't be both. An eager-beaver said, the other day, that gold has been tracking the EURO.

I hope it was pointed out to our friend that the EURO tracks gold the other way as well.

Canuck.

YGM

(05/13/2002; 21:34:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75596)

WORLD WIDE ISLANDS FOR SALE.......

http://www.vladi-private-islands.de/sales_islands/sites/worldmap_e.htmlHEAR YE! HEAR YE!.....A Proclamation.....To Ponder!:>)

I submit that the residents of this Castle consider buying a South Sea Island and proclaim ourselves Nationhood. We shall coin our own currency of Gold and Silver and make our own Constitution. MK, Aragorn, Aristotle, Mr Gresham, FOA, Gandolph, TC and Cobra 2 can be in charge of drawing up the articles of Constitution and Finance. The rest of you can fight over the other Government positions and YGM will be in charge of extra curricular activities, such as Beer, Gran Marnier, Whisky, Wine and Hammocks/Patio Furniture.
Black Blade can be the head of Island Media so we stay informed on the mess the offshore world is in. We need not an Army or Navy as we'll all be constantly patroling the shore lines in our boats and we need no moat or drawbridge.
We'll graze cattle on the airstrip so no furriners terrorists, or anyone else can land unless we want company!
Christian can be in charge of the wood-lot and farms. This is about as close to Nirvanna as we'll ever get!! Yes? No?

Canuck

(05/13/2002; 21:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75597)

@ IGWA

You win the prize of stirring shit; second time in as many months.

Prize one: The 'end of the world' was debated at Y2K. What's that old acronym, 'TEOTWAWKI'. Been there, done that.

Prize two: Once gold reaches 4 digits the government will steal it. Been there, done that.

Don't rant and rave, my wife does that, I told MK that if he gets the secret passcode "Oh my God", it's her, deny access!

Let's talk about gold vs. money or beer vs. women or something else constructive.

I want to get ahead in life, you?

Mr Gresham

(05/13/2002; 22:10:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75598)

IGWA -- Good response and welcome!

How many candles?

How many beans?

IGWA

(05/13/2002; 22:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75599)

Gentlemen......

Well, Canuck, thank you for the 2nd prize (the 1st one hasn't arrived yet - could you check you have my correct mailing address) and I'm sorry to learn about your wife.

I'm not really trying to stir, Sir, just attempting to stay on topic & inject a little realism into this debate about gold.

Cometose - I can only sneak in here for a few minutes so I promise I'll try to read your post when more relaxed & comfortable.

Darkhorse - Well, here's a little spirit - not much intelligence or rational thought, but a bit of fire in the belly. Good one! But why don't you address the issue I raised, instead of (or even as well as, if you must - I can handle it..) blasting away? Is the 'stuff' (probable govt confiscation of gold) not worth rational discussion? Perhaps, darkhorse, if you extracted your head from the sand, you could treat us to some half way reasonable comments - instead of what's currently issuing from the other end.

sector

(05/13/2002; 22:34:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75600)

Why Confiscate Gold when You Can Just Buy Shares ...of the Mines

...Is there not a disproportionate [To the XAU] rise in GoldFields stock?...In AngloGold?I wonder exactly who is buying all those shares?

Could that entity be in desperate need of physical metal to pledge towards a "Deep Storage" gold deficit? Could the only way left to get that metal be via the hostile takeover route?

Imagine the US, through its agents, [Barrick in this example] sending dozens of "Buyers" to SA and setting up hundreds of "Accounts" to acquire the shares [With US taxpayer money] and ultimately full board of directors control of GoldFields and/or AngloGold for the purpose of selling forward even more metal below market to suppress the price of gold even more than they already have.

The United States Federal Reserve has already stipulated last month that they would do such a thing...to avoid deflation. "...purchase any asset...gold mines".

Its time for a few poison pills by the boards of AngloGold and Gold Fields.
And perhaps a 'Heads Up' to the SA Government ministers.

Jin-Yin

(05/13/2002; 22:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75601)

YGM � Islands for sale

Interesting and brings to mind a situation that happened years ago in the Melanesian archipelago. A few truly liberal minded Libertarians tried unsuccessfully to set up their own style of community government in a nation there. Seems the locals under French or British governance got wind of the plan and squashed it very quickly. The more one reads about styles of government that would work better for people, the more one realizes that such a set up would not be allowed to take place. TPTB really don't need good examples to complete with the freest nation on the planet. It's hard enough to keep the Swiss system under raps.

As for islands for sale, what a great idea that many minds would enjoy pondering late into the night. As for the Maldives and similar atolls, maybe it is more of a case of buying them before they submerge. Just another thought.

YGM

(05/13/2002; 22:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75602)

G10 Meeting in Basle Switz....

OH YEA!Fast Eddie George says worldwide inflation licked..OK..sure he only had to sell Englands Gold to suppress Inflation for a week or two...Now you have to wonder being as all the scumbags are in BIS Land what their collective crooked little brains can come up with in the Gold Bashing Dept...
I venture to say we may see some foul plot hatched in the Gold world any day, with a push back to $290's if they can push the right buttons...I expect the scare of Derivatives crash hasn't been seen broadly enough yet and war seems distant, so we can expect some declines in PMs yet?
Well it would be nice to have some more time to accumulate at cheap prices, then my Island will be bigger!

LimitUp

(05/14/2002; 00:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75603)

IGWA

I almost never comment on nonsense but I'll make an exception and a confession. I am a "true believer" and I love my gold. I have no fear of confiscation and my head isn't in the sand....but directly over the stock of my Remington 870 police magnum.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 01:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75604)

OPEC & non-OPEC to meet in Vienna to forestall supply crisis

http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/world_industry_news/may02_opec.html
Snippit:

(5/13/2002 - OGI: Vienna) A meeting is to be held in Vienna June 20-21 between representatives of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to develop contingency plans for a potential oil crisis, should Russia and perhaps Norway end their export restrictions during the third quarter of this year.

Reports indicate there is concern at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that full Russian output could cause a destabilization of the international oil markets - ie. a reduction in crude prices as supplies increase.

Russia has said it will not continue the production cut imposed at the first of the year during the second half of the year, and Norway has not yet decided whether to restore its production to normal levels after the end of June.

Black Blade: OPEC holds all the cards. It's either play ball (with OPEC) or suffer the loss of market share as OPEC produces at capacity and kills expensive Russian development. Russian costs are 4 times higher than Middle East OPEC oil. That's why Russian producers caved in last time.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 01:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75605)

Crude Oil Rises to 8-Month High as OPEC May Keep Output Steady

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&tag=energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APOAXthTtQ3J1ZGUg
Snippit:

New York, May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to an eight- month high after OPEC ministers said oil supplies were adequate, signaling they have no plans to raise production in the second half of the year, when demand is expected to rise. Ministers from the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Qatar said at a weekend meeting in Cairo that there's no shortage of oil on the market. World oil demand in the second half of the year will rise faster than expected a month ago after the worst first quarter in 12 years, the International Energy Agency said.

``It's looking more and more like OPEC will leave quotas where they are when they meet next month, which adds to the perception that supplies are tight,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, a futures broker at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``At the same time, it looks like demand is set to recover.'' Prices are ``at a good level,'' Obeid bin Seif al-Nasseri, the oil minister for the United Arab Emirates, said at the weekend meeting of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. ``The stock level is very high, so there is no need for additional supply to the market now.'' Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil made similar remarks.

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming nations, said it expects oil demand in the second half of the year to rise faster than it predicted last month. World demand in the third and fourth quarters will rise to between 76.6 million and 77.8 million barrels a day, as much as 200,000 more than expected, the agency said. Demand will rise because of economic growth and as air travel recovers in the U.S. and Europe.

Black Blade: The IEA makes a lot of assumptions. Most notable is the assumption that the economy will recover in the second half with increasing demand. Even so, there is not a lot of room for expansion in production except for Saudi with about 2 million bbl/day. If there are any significant increases in demand it may still be difficult to increase production if a true economic recovery occurs. Petroleum prices were at multi-year highs a couple of years ago at the beginning of the economic recession due to supply concerns and at a time with near capacity production.

Belgian

(05/14/2002; 01:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75606)

Aristo's Personal GOLD Standard....

Your, mine, our *Doubts* are about the expected Financial Collapse and *WHAT* this exactly means for each one of us.
"What" will collapse and how much damage will be inflicted on different parties. Who is prepared and to what extend for this collapse with unknown magnitude ? Is this ongoing collapse actively "managed" or simply guided as it evolves ?

Lots of intuition from my part with scarce evidence and few anchor points. Let's talk about it, whilst trying to frame it better (clearer). Build on TG's fundamental vieuws.

Euroland is very different than the rest of this globe. At present there is a growing polarization between "social" and "liberal" forces. A fight between high taxes and high savings.
State debt(s) as arbitragist. The euro (and Euroland banks) as the "collective" stability versus the private, individual responsibilty. An alternating, balanced freedom.

Euroland is daily remembering the lessons of the Weimar and two WWs experiences !!! The basis for "the" politico and economical management.
Gold for and with the euro...Gold for everyone who wants to organise his individual security. This without extreme preferences, imposed by the collectivity (so far). Golden euro (currency) and bank-deposit-insurance for the Gold ignorants. The over-socialized Euroland, balances somewhat more to individual responsibilization, with the help (management) of EMU as a growing block. This "stability" is condition qua non for the expansion of 300 million to 500 million Eurolanders within a very short period to come !

We (EMU) cannot afford any sign of doubt on that stability or loss in confidence in the euro-currency !!! Gold is the euro's ultimate stability factor. No need to "push" anyone into Gold...this will happen automatically as the euro-Gold concept comes floating on the surface. This Euroland expansion isn't served with any kind of shock. No need to *kill* the dollar with radical measures. Because the dollar still remains a two edged sword.

More later...

Belgian

(05/14/2002; 03:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75607)

Aristotles : Deposit Insurance ?

Personally, I have no fear of any major Euroland bank to collapse !? Eurolanders (and Japanese) are *Savers* and any kind of collapse or sign of panic will be countered (offset) immediately ASAP without hesitation or default.
Still confident that the bank commision is on maximum alert to prevent any start of detoriation. Japanese banks were already virtual broke in 1995. They already had a 1929 style, bank run. They printed their way out with or without the help of big brother US. IMVHO (and many others), Japan is and will remain cornered with the US dollar as well.

Reflect on what happened at WGC and Fukuda ? A difference on opinion about Gold and Japan ? Who knows ?
The WGC (and Chris Thompson) might want to break free from the dollar-supremacy that prevents (prevented) them from doing with Gold what they are supposed to do with it ? The financial brotherhood... fraternity ?
Watch in analogy what oil and OPEC/RUSSIA producers are doing !!! It all circles around GOLD.

Another fact (event) on Belgian Tele-screens : The Goldprices have been "removed" from official channels !!! So Suddenly after all this years ????
A pluri-interpretable event...but Very significant (positive) to me.

The Euroland government backed banking insurance has always been a formality to me ? Maybe a bit overconfident ?
This confidence grew when I witnessed the decisions taken on past almost-accidents (ex. Credit Lyonnais-France). No small individual suffered any loss. Can EMU print more euro whilst rising POG (VOG) proportionately ? That's maybe the clue of the whole affair now and in the future ? The *ADAPTIVE* Gold-standard, official and private ? Marking to market quarterly !!! Nobody else is doing this (officially) with its second in rang (GOLD) of the reserves !!!!
And since there is not enough Gold and less Gold coming unto the surface...private hoarding could disturb official managerial pricing of the precious. Individual responsibility (with Gold) could go a bit too far. This Euroland vision is so different from the dollar-block classic approach on things.

Point is, how long can americans and japanese (not eurolanders) been prevented from rushing into the yellow ?
Since they have no alternative for their condemned dollar/yen block. A massive euro-rush would be/could be suffocating for Euroland as well as a dollar-crash. And here we are...all together into the same Titanic, with or without life jackets.

FREE GOLD is not an easy business ! It will certainly break free, but *how* !? Point is that it should be preferably done with the least of damage and with no outspoken loser !
That's fine with me. But I doubt it will turn out that (ideal) way ?

Spartacus

(05/14/2002; 03:54:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75608)

Aristotle

Aristotle (5/13/02; 17:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 75577)

"As FOA has told us, given the options, our political leaders would much rather have us save with Gold than to give our European counterparts a free ride by saving excessive amounts of euros. Meaning, we won't be officially eager to return the monetary favor all the world has been providing to us for the past half century through holdings of our dollars."

Spartacus: ....So therefore FREE GOLD will be in the interest of US! Thanks !!

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 04:04:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75609)

Blackouts By Pataki

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/editorial/47783.htm

Snippit:

The non-partisan New York Independent System Operator, which oversees the state's electricity market, projects a shortfall of 7,100 megawatts - more than 20 percent of the state's current load - within just three years. That means blackouts, forced conservation and soaring electric bills are just around the corner, absent quick action.

Black Blade: As I have stated before.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 04:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75610)

Yikes! My Stock's in Single Digits!

http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=207921Shocking, ain't it? Yesterday's bull-market icons keep hitting new lows.

Snippit:

There is something strange about Focal Communications' stock chart. Very strange. No, it's not just that its shares recently traded at $3. That, as we all know, is hardly a mark of distinction these days. It's that a couple of years ago the chart shows FCOM trading at around $3,000!

Come on, really? $3,000 to $3! Is that right? Actually, yes and no. You see, Focal Communications, a competitive local-exchange carrier (CLEC) based in Chicago, has just pulled off a 35-to-1 reverse stock split. The stock was selling for pennies, and this was an attempt to boost the price by reducing the number of shares outstanding--in this case, by a factor of 35. But the split also had the effect of making Focal's split-adjusted high $3,000, instead of its actual trading price of around $85.

Sound wacky? Well, it's definitely not situation normal--though one could ask, What is, these days? Nor is this kind of capital-structure engineering practiced only by small, obscure companies. AT&T is reportedly considering a reverse split when it completes the sale of its cable assets to Comcast. Ma Bell execs apparently fret that selling those properties will send its stock price down below $5. (T recently traded at $13.) A reverse split would pop it back up to double digits.

Yes, it has come to this. We are at a moment in stock market history when corporate icons are contemplating what many would consider desperate measures to boost their share prices. And the problem is hardly isolated to a handful of troubled companies. Some of the most notable names on the FORTUNE 500 now trade in the single digits--a fact that has sent a new wave of trauma through post-Sept. 11, post-recession, post-bubble Wall Street.

Black Blade: Yikes! Indeed.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75611)

The Death of Dividends

http://www.wallstreetwishlist.com/ddmay1402/ddmay1402.htm
Snippit:

In conclusion, the demise of dividends over the last 20 years was facilitated by greedy executives who used accounting shenanigans and the bull market to pocket significant stock option gains. Now that the bull market is over and accounting tricks are slowly being purged from financial statements all that remains is the greedy executives:

"... as the market cratered during the past two years, a funny thing happened: Shareholders lost their shirts, but executives went right on raking in the dough". 7

Black Blade: I brought up this subject last week. Good article.

Canuck

(05/14/2002; 05:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75612)

@ IGWA

You know how to take it. As well as you give it.

;)

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75613)

Argentina considers state land sell-off

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1986000/1986253.stm
Snippit:

The limits on withdrawals could be removed as soon as June. Argentina's President Eduardo Duhalde is considering whether to sell-off state property in order to compensate savers. "The state has thousands of properties and millions of acres of land that it doesn't use," Mr Duhalde said. "We should study how we can compensate people's savings with the state's property."

Black Blade: Considering that is all that Argentina has of any value.

Belgian

(05/14/2002; 05:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75614)

Aristotle's Personal Gold Standard (PGS)....

This PGS is mine, your and soon many other's conclusion to that impossible *floating* of confetti.
We keep on wondering *HOW* this "Transition" will materialize. Transition (away from the floating) from dollar-block management to euro-block management ?
NO taxes for accumulating and holding Gold is "the" unique encouragement with "neutral" bias of free choice ! Physical Gold is NOT excluded from inheritance taxes. In a later phase, Physical Gold trade will most probably be taxed as all crude oil (gas) derivates are taxed to the collectivity's power. No confiscation in Euroland, because the Golden mobile anchor in all currents and soils, will serve interest rate and currency *STABILITY* (Golden eggs)!

The dis-order/harmony caused by the floats and result in that unstoppable Permanent currency Depreciation, will and must evolve around the stabilizing Gold. Holding and trading bonds in a stable currency AND interest rate environment, will make the *holding* of Physical so much more attractive and "natural", AGAIN ! That's why many major euroland banks have shifted their pure banking business into more profitable insurance services.

During the '80-ties, we had extreme inflation followed by strong to almost extreme deflation. The transition cannot be other than with hyper-inflation as to destroy all bad paper (yep, burning). The ashes will still have some minor purchasing value. The dollar-block is in for a Weimarization ! Brutal or smooth ? Starting beyond POG through 350$ or higher (derivative mismatch) ?

Euroland at present and more so into the future has centered itself around that "stable" aura of the euro ! Therefore the euro needed and will continue to need that waterproof, inoxydable mate....Gooooolddddd ! A well "oiled"
concept...a Grand cru(de).

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:15:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75615)

Duncan knew he was acting illegally

http://www.msnbc.com/news/751731.asp
Former Andersen partner testifies he was aware docs would be destroyed

Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 13 � The prosecution's star witness in the trial of Arthur Andersen LLP said Monday that he knew he was breaking the law when he directed other employees to follow policies that led to the shredding of Enron Corp.-related documents.

Black Blade: Considering Wall Street ethics it isn't surprising.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75616)

Global: Breaking Vicious Circles

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020513-mon.html#anchor0

Stephen Roach (New York)

The seemingly endless virtuous circles of the 1990s are now but a distant memory. That's especially true in the United States, where the economy once could do no wrong -- nor could its policy makers, the currency, its corporate champions, and, of course, its financial markets. The American consumer was delighted to go along for the ride, as was the rest of the world. US-centric global growth was an easy paradigm for all to embrace. Maybe too easy.

Yet those very virtues seem to have sown the seeds of their own demise. The American boom went to excess, as did its financial markets. Moreover, these imbalances spilled over into the broader global economy. That's what America's gaping current-account deficit is all about. As the US economy came to grips with a painful post-bubble shakeout, the rest of a US-centric world was quick to follow suit. It's tempting to dismiss all of this as a temporary detour -- a cyclical shortfall from a still fundamentally sound macro climate. Yet the financial markets are telling us that more sinister forces may be at work.

Black Blade: The thrust is that the strong US Dollar is a deflationary risk and that a weaker US Dollar can go a long way to wringing out the excesses of the post bubble economy. In short � break the vicious cycle.

Hipplebeck

(05/14/2002; 05:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75617)

Black Blade

What you wrote about reverse stock splits made me think of something that I have been wondering about for a long time.
I have heard on bubblevision many times that historically the stock market gives higher returns than anything else if you just use the indexes. My question is, if some companies go out of business and are replaced on the indexes with another company, is this taken into consideration when figuring out the percentage gain over time?

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75618)

USD Soars, Oil and NG Rocketing, Gold Falling

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD is climbing much higher against the toilet currencies, while Gold drops a buck. Oil is knocking on $29.00/bbl due to talk of no production increases. Natural gas higher in sympathy with Oil and expectation that NG injection rates are minimal. Drought in the Midwest helps the grain market higher in the last few sessions and lowers livestock prices as ranchers and farmer sell due to higher feed prices. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Belgian

(05/14/2002; 05:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75619)

@ Spartacus

Forcing the dollar block (US/Japan) to ultimately seek refuge in Gold is indeed at Euroland's service. The dollar printers, automatically compensate "themselves" for Euroland's loss in dollar purchasing power ! Eemplary for all who wish to imitate this principle (concept). Euroland and ME-oil are fed up with the dollar-plunder systemic. See BB on Argentina, selling state property TO WHO (???) as compensation for pr�-fabricated mis-management. The dollar trapped in its own "Golden" trap.

The others in line to have understood what is at stake are China and Russia ! Don't get too complacent about the US/Russia seemingly friendly relationship ! Once the Russian oil fields are coming on stream (thanks uncle Sam) the attitude of mother Russia will turn more unpredictable.
In this game, Euroland plays a double role. As a NATO member/compliant and economic(financial) competitor. How long will this be compatible without being unmasked ?

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75620)

Hipplebeck � Good Question

I don't recall. I noticed that today the S&P 500 is kicking out Worldcom and replacing it with BJ Services. I don't know how it works out. Some indices are price weighted and others are capitalization weighted. I don't know which ones however. I do know that the S&P is run by a committee that puts certain companies in the index that they feel will increase the index. That is the reason there is a large over weighting of tech and telecom companies in that index. Maybe the "stranger" can come out of hiding and explain it to us. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 05:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75621)

Oil at 8-Month Highs, Awaits U.S. Stocks

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020514/markets_oil_1.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices hovered near eight-month highs just below $29 on Tuesday as the market predicted further shrinkage of the U.S. crude supply cushion and pondered a possible supply crunch at the end of the year. U.S. light crude rose 28 cents in Asia to $28.66 a barrel, extending Monday's 39-cent rise in New York. Prices are at the highest level since mid-September, having gained more than $2.20 in the past five trading days.

Weekly U.S. fuel stocks figures due to be released later on Tuesday are expected to show a drop in national crude inventories of about 2.5 million barrels, taking levels into a year-on-year deficit for the first time in 2002.

The American Petroleum Institute report comes a day after the West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), predicted that oil supplies could tighten significantly in the next six months and inventories could plunge dangerously low if the OPEC cartel maintained its supply curbs. "We're facing a situation in the latter part of the 2002 not unlike year 2000, when OPEC was in a position of having to unwind quotas to prevent too tight an oil balance," said Michael Rothman, senior energy specialist at Merrill Lynch, in a daily market comment.

The IEA warned that current production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could cause stocks to fall dangerously low by September if supply curbs by the cartel coincided with a strong upswing in demand, as in 1999 after the Asian economic crisis. "If producers keep output flat, the consequence is a significant stock drop and we have seen this happen before," said Klaus Rehaag, editor of the report, recalling 1999 when shrinking stocks led oil prices spiking above $35, the highest in a decade.

Black Blade: OPEC reps have stated that they are unlikely to raise output at the June meeting. Some hope that Russia will make up the difference, however, Russia has been cheating on quotas and still no relief. Could get "interesting".

nickel62

(05/14/2002; 06:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75622)

Black Blade,

Your Death of Dividends article you posted below is one of the best articles I have ever read about how the stock market has gotten so out of control over the last twenty years. I strongly urge everyone to avail themselves of it's wisdom. Thanks for posting it.

Spartacus

(05/14/2002; 06:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75623)

Belgian

Belgian (5/14/02; 05:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 75619)

--The dollar trapped in its own "Golden" trap.--

Spartacus: Yes, that seems to be the case!

Golden Bear

(05/14/2002; 06:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75624)

Hipplebeck, BB

Rigging indexes...This is the scam the mutual funds use in their brochures to lure the sheeple to their slaughter. As a stock drops below a certain level, it is removed from the index and replaced by a stock which is appreciating...pretty obvious so far. The kicker is that this gives the index an upward bias, always exaggerating the returns, and the stocks that go kaput are not used in the calculations.

This applies to mutual funds also: James Stack talks about this in one of his reports, stating that the mutual fund industry calls it survivorship bias. The shareholders of poorly performing funds are so demoralized, that the fund is liqidated, sold out or merged. It is the reason why over longer time frames (ones which usually include at least on Bear market), the funds that remain have quite good returns.

Cheers.

Boilermaker

(05/14/2002; 06:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75625)

Goldilocks Disappears

We went to bed with Goldilocks in the 90's and we awake to find ourselves sharing the sheets with Osama, Yasser and Alan Greenspan. Yikes! Holy Cow! Coyote ugly time. Get out of bed, get dressed and get some gold.

Tommy P

(05/14/2002; 06:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75626)

What are the Gold lease rates today???

Kitco is showing 1year @ 0.0% !!!!!

da2g

(05/14/2002; 06:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75627)

Golden Bear- Rigging Indexes

This is exactly the argument that I use when someone tries to convince me of the superiority of returns in the stock market over a 70 year period. How many of the components of the Dow Jones Industrials have changed over this period?

Golden Bear

(05/14/2002; 07:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75628)

Gold getting spanked...

and index futures are spiking due to "strong" retail figures...

On a positive note, John Hathaway just interviewed on Bloomberg television flying the Golden flag.

kludge

(05/14/2002; 08:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75632)

(No Subject)

My two milligrams worth on the gold confiscation topic...

I'd be less concerned with a law/proclamation that personal gold ownership is illegal, than with the dilemma of how we'll trade with or redeem it after refusing to relinguish it to the authoritities. Should that day come, using gold as money would be similiar to trying to use using illegal drugs or prostitution today (or alcohol during prohibition). Not impossible, but more difficult and certainly dangerous.

No one can plan for every contingency, but everyone should look very closely at the essential things we take for granted in modern soceity. "Beans and candles", a source of potable water, shelter and warmth, medications, personal and financial security.

Value is relative; what is the value of penicillin today? Pennies per dose. What is it's value if your child has pneumonia, or exposed to a bacterial warfare agent, and it isn't readily available?

Owning gold to perserve your wealth is just one important piece of the complex puzzle of protecting yourself and loved ones.

White Rose

(05/14/2002; 08:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75633)

Confiscation of gold -- why worry?

First, I really do not think that there will be a gold confiscation. The system has spent the last 10 years telling us that gold is just a commodity. Now you think that they will want to go out any say that it is too important to be owned by individuals?

Think of the vast wealth that sits there trapped in all the paper instruments -- mutual funds, retirement accounts, bonds, and stocks. If the government said it was replacing all retirement accounts with long term bonds that come due when the owner turns 65 -- what could anyone do?

----------------------------------

But, if the government ***was*** to make gold illegal, do big deal. Drive the stuff to Canada, ship it to Europe. Fly out, pick up your gold and buy diamonds. Fly back to the United States and become a diamond dealer.

This sort of thing is called money laundering. There are many books on the subject. Buy a few so you do not make any obvious mistakes, such as making obvious comments like this on a public forum.

da2g

(05/14/2002; 08:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75634)

gold confiscation

Do you think they will confiscate wedding rings or other items of jewelry? A funny thing occurs to gold at 1948 degrees F, it undergoes a phase change to a liquid. Some of that liquid, perhaps, could find its way into a jewelry mold. Perhaps even the piece of jewelry that comes out of the mold might be legally marketable.

As a brief aside, has anyone seen the movie "The Heist" with Gene Hackman? After stealing a substantial quantity of gold bullion, Gene managed to melt it and have it take other forms. Briefly, I was led to believe at one point he had made the railings of his yacht out of gold. Who would have suspected it?

Belgian

(05/14/2002; 08:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75635)

No subject

Interest rates + the dollar + the stockmarket, will be kept under management/guidance up until EXHAUSTION ! Not so much because it is great fun, but rather, exclusively, because there is NO other way out of this long one way street.

Sheeple, ALL sheeple must fool themselves and others as to remain complacent and never to stampede out of the coral.
In the mean time, Israel functions as the fuse for exploding the oil barril. Isn't it so obvious/evident by now (King of Jordan latest statement) ?

Sorry for the repetition.

Carl H

(05/14/2002; 09:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75636)

Black Blade: EIA

You are too kind to the EIA. They lie. For example, take the drilling information at their website and calculate the fraction of wells drilled yeilding gas, oil and dry holes. The numbers show the expected noise up until Jan 2001 -- when NG became a problem because of the price rise -- then they become constants (at values towards the high end of the range for hitting gas). I suspect that the data was simply created on a spreadsheet. I have found other funny business with their data as well. This leads me to believe that true NG situation is probably worse than even you predict.

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 09:08:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75637)

Pretty tight

June Gold GCM needs to hold close above 307 ....

Have to give the devil their due...for today...what a well planned three prong manipulation!!!

CoBra(too)

(05/14/2002; 09:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75638)

Brave New World -

Everything is rallying - the $, the SM's and even Oil, as the promised new era land is taking shape in never land...

What an unbelievable collusion of delusion and illusion of ever growing assets by infusion of ever, exponentially growing debt.

- and probably needed Wal-Mart to account for higher profits - as Cisco shining alone may have been a bit of a loner in the universe of financial assets ... beating the expected esstimates by far - which now means pennies above - so way below --- at 80% sub par - guesstimates of yesteryear - Don't worry Mr. DA. Spitzer is on the prowl ... and merrily lynched a suspect or two - by avoiding to step right into the real snake's nest - which is the FED and by extension JPMC - why doesn't he 'Chase`' em too?
Is there any substance that the guy wants to be governor too? ... Oh, no way - this guy is only a D.A. and so far removed from the Establishment - or PTB - to be eligible ...

- OK - back off and try again ... expecting your beefed up offer - before merrily lynching more of you ...

Not being brave enough - I've had enough of the international bankster gang and rather hibernate with some very sterile, though physical gold ... and, Belgian and Ari -thank you for your ongoing debates about the real and realistic ... weights and measures vs. this still un-real US-$ valuations - against a heavy weight au - I've no problem with carrying it home ... and worry-some - and bury some ... and also try to escape from any notion of confiscation -

- More later ... cb2 - sees a Weimar type $-fate ... thank you Mr. AG and others to make this kind of delusion possible - and worse - as you've been running into your deastiny knowingly - Mr. Greenspan - you should roast forever in the hell of fiat - while some of us believe in morals, ethics and god!

jinx44

(05/14/2002; 09:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75639)

kludge: your msg#: 75632

I believe that the USG will do ANYTHING it feels will keep it in power. We only have to look to Argentina and 1933/71 US socialistic policy to see what the power grabbers are capable of. True, there are far fewer people holding gold in the US today, but when the country is reeling from more terrorist attacks and a worthless dollar, the politicians--our betters--will call us traitors and horders. It will be the cry "they took our 401K's and IRA's, why not your gold?" At that point, we will be at war with ourselves again. In 1860 it was over the rights of the people, it will be the same this time too. 75 years of socialism has rotted our foundation. We will heartily deserve every transgression visited upon us. Place as much faith as you dare on human nature and inanimate things(guns and gold), the One True God is the only lasting salvation.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/14/2002; 09:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75640)

A rare treat.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

BRAZIL
Brazilian 20000 Reis

Big Country... Big Gold
Over One-Half Ounce

A rare treat by the new Republic of 1889

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

R Powell

(05/14/2002; 10:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75641)

Tommy P / Waverider

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html Here are the rates according to an unreliable source. Sometimes right and sometimes not. That's one reason why I check then and check them often. There's no reason not to.
Gold down? Buy the dips!?
Rich

sourdough

(05/14/2002; 10:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75642)

This one`s for you Robot Guy

May 14, 2002
Gold's surge boosts commodity currencies

By
Neil Behrmann
in London

THE gold boomlet is boosting the Australian and Canadian currencies and even the depressed South African rand has taken off this year.

New Zealand hardly produces any gold, but its dollar has also become fashionable because it is regarded as a commodity currency and the markets believe its economy is stable. Capital flows into gold and resource shares and high yielding sovereign bonds contributed to the revival.

Ten-year South African sovereign bond yields are 12 per cent, New Zealand 7.3 per cent, Australian 6.4 per cent, and Canadian 5.6 per cent - well above US and European 10-year government bond yields of just over 5 per cent.

Conservative monetary policies have also given support to the currencies.

According to a survey on market outlook website www.marketpredict.net, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars will beat the greenback, euro, yen and pound in the months ahead.

Currency traders and strategists at Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, National Australia Bank and Tokyo-Mitsubishi International, among others, believe that these two units will rise by 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively against the US dollar in the next 12 months while the Canadian dollar will appreciate by 3 per cent. These gains will take place at a time of general US dollar weakness, survey respondents said.

The South African rand, a combination of a commodity and an emerging market currency, will trade sideways for a few months and then slip by 6 per cent over a 12-month period.

The average forecasts of the various units against the greenback for May 2003 are C$1.52 for the Canadian dollar, 59 US cents for the Australian dollar, 48 US cents for the New Zealand dollar and 11.16 rand for the South African rand.

This compares with current rates of C$1.56, 54.5 US cents, 48 US cents, and 10.25 rand respectively. The bullish sentiment is in marked contrast to last year.

From January to December 2001 the rand plunged by 37 per cent, Australian dollar by 13 per cent, Canadian dollar by 7.5 per cent and New Zealand dollar by 7 per cent. A major slump in commodity prices during that period contributed to the slide.

But the revival of gold, base metals and other commodities and confidence that a general global economic revival was underway in the first quarter helped the currencies' turnaround.

RobotGuy

(05/14/2002; 10:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75643)

Thank-you SourDough

You know, I was suspicious of this corelation as I've been studying the activity of our 'Loonie' and other currencies. It appears as even though the U.S. market rises, so does the Canadian dollar, while the Euro generally does the opposite. It used to be quite the opposite for the CDN$.

I think this news is good for all of us goldbugs, because it shows a significant increase of interested individuals in the PM market! Canada may see an instant effect, and this is one reason why I believe this bull market is just beginning.

Cheers!!

R Powell

(05/14/2002; 10:58:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75644)

IGWA

Stirring the pot Regarding my answer to gold confiscation you answered,

"But how long was gold hidden away, "useless"
while offically banned? This time around it could be for decades. As I said, your great, great grandchildren may build a shrine in your honor when they can use the gold you leave them. Won't do you much good though."

Perhaps so but I believe the leveraged positions I hold will become nicely profitable. Many say I'll never see physical from these but I never intended to nor do I have the funds necessary to stand for delivery. I play for fiat profit. Paper profits to pay paper bills so... I'll never need nor will I want to sell any of my small coin hoard.
As for the kids and their kids, I've taught my kids the best I could...to read and write, that work is necessary to satisfy wants, and to be honest and straigtforward. What more can/should I try? They're young and stubborn and are learning the same way the old man did, the hard way. God bless them! As far as my shrine goes..thanks for thinking of me but...Have you ever read "The Good Earth" by Pearl Buck?
The more we leave, cost free, to our heirs, the less they understand its value.
Perhaps the greatest value gold gives is the knowledge it imparts (and the enjoyment in knowledge's attaining) to those who strive to understand its value and meaning. As for value or potential gains, what do any of us really have to spend in this life other than time?
Use it wisely. Thanks for "stirring" the pot. I thoroughly enjoyed it all :)
Rich

TownCrier

(05/14/2002; 11:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75645)

Sunrise... sunset.

Daily ups or downs, dollar performance represents the market's opinion of the currency's value TODAY, while bond performance represents the market's expectation about the dollar's value IN THE FUTURE.

Please take careful note of these two different statements being made by the marketplace in today's trading.

--------
HEADLINE: Dollar Extends Gains on Retail Sales Surge
+
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar shot up a full percent against the euro and set new session highs against the yen on Tuesday... The greenback firmed overnight on the back of Monday's Wall Street stock rally. Analysts say the dollar will continue to take its cue from the performance of U.S. stocks, which also got an early boost from the retail sales data (which surged 1.2 percent in April). ...but some analysts, pointing to U.S. industrial production data due on Wednesday, said the dollar would be hard-pressed to extend gains much further. "For now, caution is the order of the day."
-------------------

However, while TODAY's dollar is being highly sought by the markets, "TOMORROW's" dollar (as represented by Treasuries or futures) is showing a different face. Here is the future side of the issue based on the SAME NEWS.

---------
HEADLINE: Treasuries Hammered by Retail Sales Surge
+
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries sank on Tuesday after the government said retail sales grew at a roaring pace in April, cementing the view that the economy is on the mend and that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates, probably by August. ....pummeled bond and Eurodollar futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. "They trashed them," said a CME trader, referring to the sudden drop...
-------------------

As you interpret this second article, you must make the distinction that "Eurodollars" are NOT to be confused with Europe's new currency, the euro. Eurodollars are just dollars that are being traded in the banks of European and other international markets. And today we are seeing a lower opinion of their future value.

Bottom line: Events much discussed will run their course, and a good diversification into gold will serve you well. Give USAGOLD / Centennial a call today.

R.

Old Yeller

(05/14/2002; 11:25:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75646)

Treasury moves the empty boxes around

http://www.afxpress.com/afxpress2/afx/story_39643.xml.html
The debt ceiling closes in on the equity party.Somehow,I don't think this issue is going to be easily brushed aside,the political opportunities presented are too compelling.

There is much dirty laundry here, shouting for attention.The staggering implications of huge numbers involved,as well as the debt reduction ruse will hopefully be getting lots of attention in the future.

O'Neill will be called upon for many fancy song and dance routines,he'd better be rehearsing.This one entails a masterful acting performance,while spinning many plates on sticks.

sector

(05/14/2002; 11:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75647)

GAAP Accounting Reveals a $515 Billion US Deficit

...as quoted in an official Treasury Department Web site letter signed by Paul O'NeillU.S. TREASURY WEB SITE REVEALS $ HALF-TRILLION DEFICIT
By JOHN CRUDELE
------------------------------------------------------------------------

May 14, 2002 -- HARDLY anyone noticed but the Federal budget deficit rose to more than a half-trillion dollars last year.

That's not a typo. My typing is just fine.

And that incredible figure comes from no less an authority than U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill.

If you've been following the newspapers lately you've probably noticed that Republicans and Democrats have been squabbling over the expected budget surplus that suddenly disappeared. The politicians are also bickering over how this country will manage the sharp increase in Federal spending that will be required in the war on terrorism.

The hand-wringing has been over the fact that the government expected $75 billion more in tax revenues this year than actually arrived. With that revenue shortfall, the federal budget deficit - the one elected officials are publicly worried about - will be $121 billion and not the $46 billion upon which projections were made.

Forget all that. That's chump change.

What I've stumbled upon is shocking - both for the information provided and for the way in which the news was delivered.

Carefully hidden on a Treasury Department Web site is an undated letter from Secretary Paul O'Neill that puts the deficit number last year at quadruple what Congress is worried about. Here are O'Neill's written words in a "Message From the Secretary Of The Treasury:

"In five years, we have made considerable progress but still have much to accomplish in order to reach our goal of timely and useful financial reporting," O'Neill wrote.

He then goes on to explain what's really happening.

"Accrual based financial reporting is critical to gaining a comprehensive understanding of the U.S. Government's operations. For fiscal 2001, our results were an accrual-based deficit of $515 billion in contrast to a $127 billion budget surplus reported last fall," said O'Neill.

Five hundred and fifteen BILLION dollars. That's on a total federal budget of $2.1 trillion.

To put this into perspective, that would be like your family borrowing one in every four dollars its spends. Or, more accurately, it is like you putting one dollar in four on your credit cards and never paying it back.

O'Neill, of course, is a former businessman. And in this day and age of Enron-type accounting tomfoolery it's nice to see at least one public official trying to get the government to practice the honesty that it preaches to companies.

But don't go thinking that O'Neill or Washington really wants you to see this stuff. This letter, I suspect, was simply put on the record so Washington can later deny hiding anything.

As far as I know, this letter was never made public in the conventional way.

And here's what you have to do to find it: Go to www.USTreas.gov, click on "Treasury Bureaus" on the left, then click on "financial management services."

Once you are there, click on "Financial Report of the U.S. Government." Download it. Now go to page 5, which you can only accomplish by fiddling in just the right way with the bar on the right.

Your search has now led you to the hidden treasures of O'Neill's letter.

Washington, of course, doesn't practice accrual accounting which is the Generally Accepted Accounting Principle used by most honest businesses.

(We'll leave the matter of pro forma accounting and its shortcomings for another column.)

The government manages to make its budget look better by taking the surplus from trust funds like Social Security and using that money to pay current expenses. The Social Security cash is replaced with government I.O.U.s which might - or might not - be paid back later. (Also, another column.)

But O'Neill apparently thinks accrual accounting gives a better picture of Washington's financial health, despite the humongous deficit it embarrassingly reveals.

The Treasury Secretary ends his letter by saying, "I believe that the American people deserve the highest standard of accountability and professionalism from their Government and I will not rest until we achieve them."

Well, the Treasury Secretary is going to be a very tired man because honesty just isn't in vogue in Washington.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The true wall of depression still lies ahead for America. 2001 was only the beginning of lost tax receipts due to lack of capital gains revenue. Today's rally is another CSCO "Jump".

Coupled with the debit item of $20 Billion in "Gold and Foreign Currency"[Likely the West Point 1,700 tonnes of US Reserves turned to "Custodial" gold] dredged by Jim Turk and Andrew Hepburn we have a glimpse of the depth of panic running through Washington.

No wonder they needed an ME war as distraction.

A $515 BillionGAAP deficit.

That figure is so far above any past FED financial control mechanism is isn't even funny. No inflation? Yeah Right!

With this admission we have an answer to the nervous Don Knotts-like behaviour of Mr. O'Neill he can't be sleeping too well.

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 11:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75648)

TownCrier: "Sunrise...sunset"

Having a "Tevye moment"?

"Tra-DIT-ion-n-n-n-n-n-n!" Gold certainly meets the defintion of that word.

I'm glad he's around now, as of this weekend, I think.

Eventually we'll be able to stop worrying about trivialities like POG, and start getting down to the REAL important things in life, like getting our daughters properly married off...

(I thought i was joking when I started this post, but now that I think of it, I already have one son-in-law who is Golden to me, no worries so far anyway, and having peace of mind in one area of life is so novel to me, I hadn't really let the contrast to other areas sink in, till now...)

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 11:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75649)

More from Old Yeller's link 2 posts down

"Other options include tapping a portion of the civil servants' retirement fund, investments in the Treasury's exchange stabilisation fund (used for currency interventions), the Treasury said. "

Did you catch that ESF reference?; just gets me to thinkin'...

End of June seems like the end of something, but you just have to go at this with two brains. Treasury debt stuff has always been just a smoke and mirrors show, a little elbow-jostling behind the curtain, and a big "Oh, never mind" for the public.

sector's catch on Crudele's "half trillion" deficit is incredible to contemplate.

One of these times it's going to show up for real as the great Dollar machine pops a few rivets and sends one flying right back into the pistons and blows it all up. We just never know which time.

I can guess that it will the be time when they can't control ANYTHING anymore, and so might as well let this one go, too. It all goes down together...

sourdough

(05/14/2002; 11:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75650)

RobotGuy (05/14/02; 10:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 75643)

aha, acknowledgement of my existance!
let me ask an opinion of you.
"A company borrows 400 to 500 million U.S. at an extremely reasonable interest rate. In order to achieve this very low interest rate the "pledge" over 20 million shares of a major gold producer, (Barrick gold). They make these shares exchangeable at the rate of 52 (and a percentage) per $1000 u.s. If the bond holders wish to exercise their exchange right, the company has the right to close out the loan and retain the Barrick shares at the then current price."
Now, I read this as a right to pick up these share at 52+ per $1000= somewhere in the $19 to $20 range.
A great financing as long as Barrick remains at or below $20 U.S.
Unfortunately for the borrower the gold price rises, Barrick shares increase in value to $22,$23 U.S.
If the company wishes to retain their Barrick shares they must close this loan out at the $22 or $23 dollar price of Barrick.
It would seem to me that financing is not as wonderful as thought. A $3 dollar premium on 20 million shares looks like $60 million to me. $60 million interest on a 4 or 5 hundred million dollar loan is over 10%.
If you were president of the borrowing company, would you not start to sweat? Would you not scramble for alternate financing to get out of that loan on any fallback of the price of Barrick stock.? I suppose you might just give up the Barrick shares and say "whoops", to your shareholders.

BUT, if the 20 million shares of Barrick (plus another 10 million shares pledged at a different conversation rate) was the reason you were also chairman of Barrick, this might not be as easy.
The company I am talking about is TRIZECHAHN, THE CHAIRMAN IS PETER MONK.
THE QUESTION: WILL THEY GET OUT OF THE LOAN ON A FALLBACK OF BARRICKS SHARE PRICE?
WILL IT BE A BULLISH INDICATOR FOR GOLD AND BARRICK TO SEE THIS LOAN CLOSED OUT BY MONK/TRIZEC?.
It would seem to me that if Monk knows Gold and Barrick are headed higher it would be correct to get out of this deal now. I suppose if Barrick was headed for a terrible derivative nightmare, they would be content to give up the shares and Barrick chairmanship along with them.
OPINION?

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 12:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75651)

Aristotle's "Get on with your life!"

Best words ever posted: (Can we have a banner over the USAGold website?)

"Get on with your life!!! Take a good look around, make the most of the situation at hand, and apply your energies where they might have meaning. Ply your trade and be a success. After all, the nature of your money is secondary to your real concerns. "

Part of what we spend our mental energies on here is the un-learning of old falsehoods. Things that STEAL our time and energies. Some of them come from without, like fraudulent monetary systems, and some we do to ourselves, internally.

That process of "Eternal vigilance" against such theft of our lives is, well, eternal. And we find in our fellows here, and their words and thoughts, the framework or template upon which we can work our own thoughts and words toward that internal liberation.

Find a place where people are taking BIG steps forward in their mental emancipation, and catch a ride!

Not the advice, not the investments, not the "money", but the analogous stimulation of our THINKING capabilities. THAT is what will provide us the likely resourcefulness to get through hard times -- a test we have hardly faced in any measure living in this artificial society to date.

No easy, final Answer. ("Buy gold and go back to sleep") Just one step that MIGHT provide you the critical toe-hold to climb over other obstacles.

As IGWA pointed out so provocatively, there are no guarantees -- you can only take your best shot.

I'll just say that: -- you never know what is on-topic or off-topic necessarily, if it leads to that readiness for any eventuality (and perhaps leads to a more vibrant living in ANY time). I've just spent my second hour on my new treadmill, perfect for rainy days. Each day I spent hiding -- yes, hiding -- out here in words and thoughts -- physically inert except for flying fingers typing -- Black Blade's "Well, off to the gym" piqued something I KNEW I had to face. So, thank you, my friend, for helping me get back ON TRACK.

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 12:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75652)

Down but Resilient!& June held!!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={B0399C69-5B15-4CBB-9B43-72EA794F9D6C}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbiGold stocks melt in afternoon trade
By Deborah Adamson, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET May 14, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold stocks melted in afternoon trading Tuesday, as the dollar and the broad market gained ground. Gold futures were down, as well.

The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index ($XAU: news, chart, profile) slid by 4.5 percent to 77.18. The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX: news, chart, profile) gave up 4.1 percent to 58.62. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) lost 5.2 percent to 113.09.

Gold for June delivery settled at $3.30 to $307.60 an ounce on the Commodities division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal hit a low of $307.10 an ounce intraday. Comex gold inventories stood at 1.35 million ounces as of the close of business on Monday, unchanged.

"Basically, we're seeing a little bit of a retracement" with the dollar and the broad market showing some strength, said David Meger, senior metals analyst at Alaron.com.

For gold to break out of its tight trading range to the upside, the dollar or equities must show significant weakness, he said.

The analyst also observed that traders have accumulated a large speculative net long position in gold, which typically signals an overbought market. But the fact that traders aren't being squeezed points to the resiliency of the gold market, Meger added."

Siochain: Excellent sign that June gold not only rose from critical point but also started moving back up towards close

Aristotle

(05/14/2002; 12:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75653)

Patio Furniture

"I'll never sell my patio furniture."

What a ridiculous thing to think or actually say. You'll never hear it from me.

I bought my patio furniture for the comfort it would bring me during the course of my life. I assure you, at all points along the way it's been much more gratifying having it than not having it. Real Patio Furniture is my reward for the value of my prior labors, a purchasing power which was briefly expressed in my bank account as the amount of money I received for my work. And now it is expressed as the Patio Furniture that gives me physical comfort and meaningful satisfaction following my productivity.

People have been known to change their lifestyles. For example, selling a motorcycle in preference for a car, or selling a large city house in preference for small country cottage, or selling a boat and moving inland. For that reason, I'll never vow not to sell my Patio Furniture. Heck, for all I know, I just might need the cash someday simply to put food in my belly! (But let's hope it doesn't come to that! Where would I sit as I ate it?)

But from early on, I was conscious that our government has had a track record of changing the rules of the game, declaring public emergencies, claiming eminent domain, etc. It also became known to me that, hanging like a dark cloud over my interest in Patio Furniture, the government has a potential interest (along with a history) of seizing any and all publicly held bulli... er, I mean New Patio Furniture.

What did I, the light and lively king of my own domain, decide to do? Undaunted and well armed with Information, I took advantage of the Knowledge that the government has been hesitant to take away a citizen's Antique Patio Furniture. That's right! I bought some Exceptional Patio Furniture that was four generations old, and most pleasantly without the usual antique premium on its price.

Now let me tell you something. The craftsmanship in this old stuff is remarkable. As far as delivering comfort and satisfaction of ownership, it's even better than the new stuff -- not only does it let me lounge at ease with peace of mind, it also fills me with a sense of connection to all those wonderful generations who enjoyed it before my turn in the easy seat.

I sure won't be pleased -- in sympathy for my neighbors -- if the government takes their new deck chairs, or seizes the factories that build the new ones. But if it happens, I'm sure I'll probably enjoy all their company as they come over to my patio for a place to sit and enjoy a beer with me in the sunshine. After all, the sun will always come up tomorrow. You just need to make sure you'll still have a place in it.

OK, ok, because I can't absolutely foresee my future financial needs, maybe I'll sell one chair or two to a neighbor as necessary. But thanks to my caution, they'll still be mine to sell.

More importantly, I won't have to complete the transaction in some dimly lit back alley with the drug dealers and other creatures of the underworld.

This I will say, "I'll never sell the ENTIRE set." Why? Because as long as I live, I'll need that comfortable place to sit in the sun. Otherwise, what's the point of life?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

YGM

(05/14/2002; 12:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75654)

China & GATA

http://www.gatachinese.org/Did You Know?

China has the second largest number of home Internet users in the world.

Despite efforts to stop it, peer-to-peer file-swapping sites grew fivefold last year.

56.6 million Chinese citizens live in homes with Internet access.

***Any sites you can link the Chinese GATA site to is a positive step for raising Gold awareness to those 56 million potential buyers...Sure they buy already but if they knew what we know the buying could skyrocket...Every little bit helps...

SEEKER OF THE GOLDEN GRAIL

(05/14/2002; 12:42:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75655)

On Gold Confiscation

This is not the 30s by any stretch of the imagination. Society and its values have changed significantly since then. Today, the USA runs huge trade deficits, has massive debt and explodes the money supply. Our recent president, Clinton, lied to the American people while under oath and denigrated his presidential office through various scandals. He epitomizes the corruption rampant in our poltical system while the Enrons and Arthur Andersens reflect the corruption present in corporations and accounting firms. So when BIG government comes knocking on my door, the door of an honest US citizen who pays his taxes and abides by the laws, who served his country in Viet Nam, and tells me to hand over my gold - does anyone in the room think I will give it to these crooks? Gold that I bought and paid for with my after tax hard earned money? Are you kidiing? Number one, I am not so stupid to have told the government that I have any gold in the first place. Second, even if they assume that I have some, let them take me an 10s of thousands of others to court to prove it. Third, even if they could prove it, they can't show how much I have. Fourth, even if they could show that, they can't prove I didn't already sell it for cash and no longer have it. And on and on... Bottom line is they can never find it and they can't have it. The gold I have is my gold, not Big Brother's gold, AND I WILL NEVER GIVE IT UP TO THE BIG GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRATS - NO WAY NO HOW!!! And more importantly, I feel that I reflect the attitudes of most gold owners. Gold ownership is a barometer of the perception we have of our government - the worse it gets, the more I buy!

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 12:52:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75656)

@ Aristotle

Your patio furniture sounds lovely....hmmmn...reminds me of mine.....very comforting..eh...comfortable....strong & sturdy to last thru all types of weather and thru the years!

Get ye some good old patio furniture!

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 12:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75657)

Black Blade: Energy Crisis

"Hell, all it would take to put the world at risk would be a terrorist attack on the Ras Tanura oil facility that pumps 5 million bbl/day."

This line went right to the thoughts I had building up over the past month of ME fighting and while reading through your fine essay.

There MUST be a US "Saudi oilfield quarantine" backup strategy. And do I remember correctly reading that the Saudi facilities (wells, pipes, shipping) are well away from the Saudi population "centers", such as they are?

In other words, angry Wahhabi mobs are not about to storm 500 miles or so across the desert, without being met by an encircling contingent of US Blackhawks or whatever?

And the oilfield employees, mostly Saudi (?) or other ME(?), I've heard little good about their reliability or loyalties but mainly accommodating the Saudi regime's political and employment requirements -- could the US have an American or, say, Indonesian or Venezuelan or whatever, contingent in training and/or readiness to rotate in and out of there to keep things running?

Not my advocacy here of a US military takeover -- but forecasting from sheer Machiavellian power management. (Of course it's quite an open question on the "justice and fairness spectrum" why these particular "royals" should have a unique claim to this resource, over any other of the world's tribes.)

Perhaps the Saudi monarchy is in place while it is able to stabilize enough elements of the picture to keep oil flowing. Failing that, they will be substituted for, at least in the oilfields. Avoiding pissing off the Arab world can no longer be whatever high priority it may have once been, as that train has already left the station.

(Perhaps that is why Another's small amount of gold added to payment for each barrel of oil seems really like such a pittance on today's market -- because the royals are recognizing political/military reality while saving face, and metal.)

Otherwise, what have $300 billion in military "investment" and election of a Bush-Cheney oil regime bought us? They game and model EVERYTHING -- and get in media trouble when something hits that they haven't prepared for something -- this must be among the most important since the end of USSR.

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 13:05:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75658)

Siochain

"Get ye some good old patio furniture!"

Now that really sums up what my neglect of my home to-do list has left me lacking. Think MK and Randy will post any links to their special "Patio Furniture" sales page anytime this summer? (Michael: Think "Land's End" here... and you're on your way! ;-)

Rock

(05/14/2002; 13:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75659)

How Do You Spell SUCKER RALLY?

Hello everyone, hoping all is going well with those who frequent this great castle where the unlearned become the learned. I find it humorous when from time to time someone like IGWA comes barreling through with guns a blazing making comentary with no substance. Like I told him yesterday, no one has been ducking any issues here at the round table, we're not like the James Cramer's of Wall Street who delibertly deceive and mislead the public, we offer full disclosure.

The fine minds at this forum have gone over and over time and time again questions about gold confiscation and how to protect one self, for example one way is with pre-1933 coins.

I guess I too have been guilty from time to time for foaming at the mouth before researching all the facts only to find out later that I made a big fool out of myself so I don't take it personal when someone such as IGWA comes riding in like blazing saddles spewing out things that have been gone over time and time again.

I have discovered that some folks have ligitimate questions concerning one subject or another while others just like stirring the pot so they can enjoy getting the troops riled up.

On another note did you hear about those 25 Al-Queda terrorist that were smuggled in on a cargo ships and got away this morning? The coast guard put out the APB. IMHO that's the bunch who's going to storm the nuclear plants.

As for the market today, its a suckers rally! For two days in a row the market headed up. BIG DEAL, that and a inflated dollar will get you a cup of coffee. I need to see 3 to 6 month sustainment on the upside in the stock market before I even consider advising anyone to get back in.

I read from one of you geniuses recently on a link that was provided that one renouned expert said the Dow has to get back to its 1995 level of about 5500 and the Nasdaq needed to drop down to 800 before it has reached the bottom.

That sounds about right to me, how about any of you? So with that being the big picture I don't worry about PM's taking a little breather and losing a few bucks like it did today thats just natural market tendency and fluctuation from what I have learned and observed.

What are the chances of the Dow reaching 12,000 and the Nasdaq 5000 in the unforeseen future? Or what are the chances of another terrorist strike against the US or Canada in the near future that will cause Gold and Silver to spike thru the roof? Or a war breaking out the the ME. Its a volital and dangerous world out there, protect yourself and your family, get gold, extra food, and a few extra months of cash on hand, the party is almost over!

Cheers to all,

Rock

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 13:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75660)

Aristotle: The Patio Furniture Chronicles

"I bought some Exceptional Patio Furniture that was four generations old."

This of course is one step forward in the dilemma. However, your patio, and the furniture upon it, is still visible to those who approach and view your home from some directions.

I think the complete program will be the invention of "Patio Furniture Invisible Paint". And yes, you'll be denied some of the pleasure of viewing your lovely antiques, but at least you'll still be able to sit on them (privately, of course).

You may even be able to invite a few trusted family members, or neighbors, to join you in sitting (briefly) on them. (You'll just have to guide them carefully in walking across the patio, so they don't trip over the seats.)

And, if you're ever surprised by the furniture-seeking revenooers who've gotten past your invisible non-barking dog, and catch you parked in mid-air in an otherwise inexplicable supine position, you'll just have to whip out your New Yoga Manual, which shows the reclining position you were just sustaining by sheer willpower and force of character...

Rock

(05/14/2002; 13:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75661)

To Seeker of the Golden Grail msg # 75655

Bravo my friend, I couldn't agree with you more!

Cheers,

Rock

Tommy P

(05/14/2002; 13:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75662)

600 MILLION LOSS TO JPM METALS TRADING

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 13:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75663)

Thoreau

http://literatureproject.com/civil-disobedience/civil-disobedience.htmAnd, finally for today -- a response to Cometose yesterday:

"I wonder what Thoreau would say about the way things are today." Well, let's see...

link above: On the Duty of Civil Disobedience

by Henry David Thoreau

[1849, original title: Resistance to Civil Government]

I daresay you will not be able to stop reading, once begun.

"I heartily accept the motto, "That government is best which governs least"; and I should like to see it acted up to more rapidly and systematically. Carried out, it finally amounts to this, which also I believe--"That government is best which governs not at all"; and when men are prepared for it, that will be the kind of government which they will have. Government is at best but an expedient; but most governments are usually, and all governments are sometimes, inexpedient. The objections which have been brought against a standing army, and they are many and weighty, and deserve to prevail, may also at last be brought against a standing government. The standing army is only an arm of the standing government. The government itself, which is only the mode which the people have chosen to execute their will, is equally liable to be abused and perverted before the people can act through it. Witness the present Mexican war, the work of comparatively a few individuals using the standing government as their tool; for in the outset, the people would not have consented to this measure."

And "This American government--what is it but a tradition, though a recent one, endeavoring to transmit itself unimpaired to posterity, but each instant losing some of its integrity? "

"Governments show thus how successfully men can be imposed upon, even impose on themselves, for their own advantage...The character inherent in the American people has done all that has been accomplished; and it would have done somewhat more, if the government had not sometimes got in its way. "

"But, to speak practically and as a citizen, unlike those who call themselves no-government men, I ask for, not at one no government, but at once a better government. Let every man make known what kind of government would command his respect, and that will be one step toward obtaining it."

"Must the citizen ever for a moment, or in the least degree, resign his conscience to the legislator? Why has every man a conscience then? I think that we should be men first, and subjects afterward. It is not desirable to cultivate a respect for the law, so much as for the right. The only obligation which I have a right to assume is to do at any time what I think right. "

"A common and natural result of an undue respect for the law is, that you may see a file of soldiers, colonel, captain, corporal, privates, powder-monkeys, and all, marching in admirable order over hill and dale to the wars, against their wills, ay, against their common sense and consciences, which makes it very steep marching indeed, and produces a palpitation of the heart. They have no doubt that it is a damnable business in which they are concerned; they are all peaceably inclined. Now, what are they? Men at all? or small movable forts and magazines, at the service of some unscrupulous man in power? "

"The mass of men serve the state thus, not as men mainly, but as machines, with their bodies. They are the standing army, and the militia, jailers, constables, posse comitatus, etc. In most cases there is no free exercise whatever of the judgement or of the moral sense; but they put themselves on a level with wood and earth and stones; and wooden men can perhaps be manufactured that will serve the purpose as well. Such command no more respect than men of straw or a lump of dirt. They have the same sort of worth only as horses and dogs. "

"How does it become a man to behave toward the American government today? I answer, that he cannot without disgrace be associated with it. I cannot for an instant recognize that political organization as my government which is the slave's government also. ... All men recognize the right of revolution; that is, the right to refuse allegiance to, and to resist, the government, when its tyranny or its inefficiency are great and unendurable. But almost all say that such is not the case now. But such was the case, they think, in the Revolution of '75. "

"I quarrel not with far-off foes, but with those who, neat at home, co-operate with, and do the bidding of, those far away, and without whom the latter would be harmless. We are accustomed to say, that the mass of men are unprepared; but improvement is slow, because the few are not as materially wiser or better than the many. It is not so important that many should be good as you, as that there be some absolute goodness somewhere; for that will leaven the whole lump. There are thousands who are in opinion opposed to slavery and to the war, who yet in effect do nothing to put an end to them; who, esteeming themselves children of Washington and Franklin, sit down with their hands in their pockets, and say that they know not what to do, and do nothing; "

"It is not a man's duty, as a matter of course, to devote himself to the eradication of any, even to the most enormous, wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support. If I devote myself to other pursuits and contemplations, I must first see, at least, that I do not pursue them sitting upon another man's shoulders. I must get off him first, that he may pursue his contemplations too. ...I have heard some of my townsmen say, "I should like to have them order me out to help put down an insurrection of the slaves, or to march to Mexico--see if I would go"; and yet these very men have each, directly by their allegiance, and so indirectly, at least, by their money, furnished a substitute."

"Thus, under the name of Order and Civil Government, we are all made at last to pay homage to and support our own meanness. After the first blush of sin comes its indifference; "

"How can a man be satisfied to entertain and opinion merely, and enjoy it? Is there any enjoyment in it, if his opinion is that he is aggrieved? If you are cheated out of a single dollar by your neighbor, you do not rest satisfied with knowing you are cheated, or with saying that you are cheated, or even with petitioning him to pay you your due; but you take effectual steps at once to obtain the full amount, and see to it that you are never cheated again. Action from principle, the perception and the performance of right, changes things and relations; it is essentially revolutionary, and does not consist wholly with anything which was. It not only divided States and churches, it divides families; ay, it divides the individual, separating the diabolical in him from the divine."

"Unjust laws exist: shall we be content to obey them, or shall we endeavor to amend them, and obey them until we have succeeded, or shall we transgress them at once? Men, generally, under such a government as this, think that they ought to wait until they have persuaded the majority to alter them. They think that, if they should resist, the remedy would be worse than the evil. But it is the fault of the government itself that the remedy is worse than the evil. It makes it worse. Why is it not more apt to anticipate and provide for reform? Why does it not cherish its wise minority? Why does it cry and resist before it is hurt? Why does it not encourage its citizens to put out its faults, and do better than it would have them? Why does it always crucify Christ and excommunicate Copernicus and Luther, and pronounce Washington and Franklin rebels?

"If the injustice is part of the necessary friction of the machine of government, let it go, let it go: perchance it will wear smooth--certainly the machine will wear out. If the injustice has a spring, or a pulley, or a rope, or a crank, exclusively for itself, then perhaps you may consider whether the remedy will not be worse than the evil; but if it is of such a nature that it requires you to be the agent of injustice to another, then I say, break the law. Let your life be a counter-friction to stop the machine. What I have to do is to see, at any rate, that I do not lend myself to the wrong which I condemn.

"As for adopting the ways of the State has provided for remedying the evil, I know not of such ways. They take too much time, and a man's life will be gone. I have other affairs to attend to. I came into this world, not chiefly to make this a good place to live in, but to live in it, be it good or bad. "

I know what's going to happen here -- run off the end of the posting character limit (which I've never done before) -- let's see...

kludge

(05/14/2002; 14:03:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75664)

@Aristotle

I believe that what you have there is genuine antique patio furniture, but will your neighbor? If it's material and weight isn't listed on each piece in a recognizable form and from a reliable source than it may be "fool's furniture" for all s/he knows.

Just something to consider and plan for, as I'm sure you have. Sorry if I'm stating the obvious, but never underestimate someone else's ignorance.

With apologies: Plans B, C, D, E, ... - make you some.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 14:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75665)

PM Lease Rates

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
Gold and Silver lease rates are higher presumably on tightening supplies and less available for lending. Platinum rates remain very high due to lack of Russian exports. Gold is lower - probably due to the rocketing USD and floundering toilet currencies.

I see that NY Crude had been over $29.00/bbl today and remains higher. NG is back over $3.85 Mbtu. Many industry analysts and insiders are beginning to suspect a developing energy crisis later this year. "Interesting Times" are on the horizon.

- Black Blade

Graefin

(05/14/2002; 14:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75666)

Baaaaaaaaah!

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 14:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75667)

AH ...the culprits are coming out

http://www.thisislondon.com/dynamic/news/story.html?in_review_id=583761∈_review_text_id=551380'Plague of rats' hits West London

by Colin Freeman
The streets of one of London's wealthiest boroughs are suffering a mass outbreak of rats.

Now Kensington and Chelsea council may sue Thames Water Utilities to force it to introduce tougher measures after recording a "growing incidence" of rat complaints.

A cluster of streets in the Earls Court area are now festooned with the creatures, with some horrified residents reporting them scurrying around outside their basement flats.

The Tory-run council blames a decision seven years ago by TWU to scrap its policy of "routine baiting" in its vast network of sewers. Critics say it was done partly to save cash. Now there are around 1,000 complaints a year in the borough.

Council deputy leader Daniel Moylan said: "In our view, the sewers aren't being properly looked after. We have written to TWU several times, asking them to re-introduce sewer baiting. But so far that hasn't happened. We still hope to persuade them but, if not, we may have to be more forceful via legal action."

The council cannot force the company to bait the pipes, as they do not count as "premises", but borough lawyers are looking at a new claim of "common law nuisance".

Any case will be watched closely by other local councils, many of whom have made similar complaints to water companies nationwide.

A TWU spokeswoman said: "We have found that it is much more efficient to control rats by responding to sightings rather than just routinely bait our sewers."

Kensington and Chelsea council plans to put TWU's claims to the test by asking them for information on exactly which areas have been baited - comparing them to a specially-drawn "ratmap" of rodent hotspots.

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 14:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75669)

Sorry for double

Though I must admit the Plague of rats in London wealthy areas explains a lot

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 14:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75670)

Thoreau, cont.(2)

http://literatureproject.com/civil-disobedience/civil-disobedience.htmG: What is well-written or well-spoken once, stands for all time. This piece adds an expanse of background to our deliberations here: a dimension of time, of national history, of moral rootedness, and of individual place in it all. Spend this time, with Henry, and store it away for that time when your decision to stand firm will take that little guy with the two pointy things by surprise, and maybe just throw him off his game for awhile. (And he thought he had such a sure thing going on us suckers...)

"I know this well, that if one thousand, if one hundred, if ten men whom I could name--if ten honest men only--ay, if one HONEST man, in this State of Massachusetts, ceasing to hold slaves, were actually to withdraw from this co-partnership, and be locked up in the county jail therefor, it would be the abolition of slavery in America. For it matters not how small the beginning may seem to be: what is once well done is done forever. But we love better to talk about it: that we say is our mission."

"Cast your whole vote, not a strip of paper merely, but your whole influence. A minority is powerless while it conforms to the majority; it is not even a minority then; but it is irresistible when it clogs by its whole weight. If the alternative is to keep all just men in prison, or give up war and slavery, the State will not hesitate which to choose. If a thousand men were not to pay their tax bills this year, that would not be a violent and bloody measure, as it would be to pay them, and enable the State to commit violence and shed innocent blood. This is, in fact, the definition of a peaceable revolution, if any such is possible. If the tax-gatherer, or any other public officer, asks me, as one has done, "But what shall I do?" my answer is, "If you really wish to do anything, resign your office." When the subject has refused allegiance, and the officer has resigned from office, then the revolution is accomplished. But even suppose blood shed when the conscience is wounded? Through this wound a man's real manhood and immortality flow out, and he bleeds to an everlasting death. I see this blood flowing now."

"But the rich man--not to make any invidious comparison--is always sold to the institution which makes him rich. Absolutely speaking, the more money, the less virtue; for money comes between a man and his objects, and obtains them for him; it was certainly no great virtue to obtain it. It puts to rest many questions which he would otherwise be taxed to answer; while the only new question which it puts is the hard but superfluous one, how to spend it. Thus his moral ground is taken from under his feet. The opportunities of living are diminished in proportion as that are called the "means" are increased. The best thing a man can do for his culture when he is rich is to endeavor to carry out those schemes which he entertained when he was poor. "

"I have paid no poll tax for six years. I was put into a jail once on this account, for one night; and, as I stood considering the walls of solid stone, two or three feet thick, the door of wood and iron, a foot thick, and the iron grating which strained the light, I could not help being struck with the foolishness of that institution which treated my as if I were mere flesh and blood and bones, to be locked up. ... I felt as if I alone of all my townsmen had paid my tax. ... I saw that the State was half-witted, that it was timid as a lone woman with her silver spoons, and that it did not know its friends from its foes, and I lost all my remaining respect for it, and pitied it."

"Thus the state never intentionally confronts a man's sense, intellectual or moral, but only his body, his senses. It is not armed with superior wit or honesty, but with superior physical strength. I was not born to be forced. I will breathe after my own fashion. Let us see who is the strongest. "

"When I came out of prison--for some one interfered, and paid that tax--I did not perceive that great changes had taken place on the common, such as he observed who went in a youth and emerged a gray-headed man; and yet a change had come to my eyes come over the scene--the town, and State, and country, greater than any that mere time could effect. I saw yet more distinctly the State in which I lived. I saw to what extent the people among whom I lived could be trusted as good neighbors and friends; that their friendship was for summer weather only; that they did not greatly propose to do right; that they were a distinct race from me by their prejudices and superstitions..."

"I have never declined paying the highway tax, because I am as desirous of being a good neighbor as I am of being a bad subject; and as for supporting schools, I am doing my part to educate my fellow countrymen now. It is for no particular item in the tax bill that I refuse to pay it. I simply wish to refuse allegiance to the State, to withdraw and stand aloof from it effectually. I do not care to trace the course of my dollar, if I could, till it buys a man or a musket to shoot one with..."

"I think sometimes, Why, this people mean well, they are only ignorant; they would do better if they knew how: why give your neighbors this pain to treat you as they are not inclined to? But I think again, This is no reason why I should do as they do, or permit others to suffer much greater pain of a different kind. "

"I believe that the State will soon be able to take all my work of this sort out of my hands, and then I shall be no better patriot than my fellow-countrymen. Seen from a lower point of view, the Constitution, with all its faults, is very good; the law and the courts are very respectable; even this State and this American government are, in many respects, very admirable, and rare things, to be thankful for, such as a great many have described them; seen from a higher still, and the highest, who shall say what they are, or that they are worth looking at or thinking of at all?

"However, the government does not concern me much, and I shall bestow the fewest possible thoughts on it. It is not many moments that I live under a government, even in this world. If a man is thought-free, fancy-free, imagination-free, that which is not never for a long time appearing to be to him, unwise rulers or reformers cannot fatally interrupt him."

"They who know of no purer sources of truth, who have traced up its stream no higher, stand, and wisely stand, by the Bible and the Constitution, and drink at it there with reverence and humanity; but they who behold where it comes trickling into this lake or that pool, gird up their loins once more, and continue their pilgrimage toward its fountainhead."

"The authority of government, even such as I am willing to submit to--for I will cheerfully obey those who know and can do better than I, and in many things even those who neither know nor can do so well--is still an impure one: to be strictly just, it must have the sanction and consent of the governed. It can have no pure right over my person and property but what I concede to it. The progress from an absolute to a limited monarchy, from a limited monarchy to a democracy, is a progress toward a true respect for the individual. Even the Chinese philosopher was wise enough to regard the individual as the basis of the empire. Is a democracy, such as we know it, the last improvement possible in government? Is it not possible to take a step further towards recognizing and organizing the rights of man? There will never be a really free and enlightened State until the State comes to recognize the individual as a higher and independent power, from which all its own power and authority are derived, and treats him accordingly. I please myself with imagining a State at last which can afford to be just to all men, and to treat the individual with respect as a neighbor; which even would not think it inconsistent with its own repose if a few were to live aloof from it, not meddling with it, nor embraced by it, who fulfilled all the duties of neighbors and fellow men. A State which bore this kind of fruit, and suffered it to drop off as fast as it ripened, would prepare the way for a still more perfect and glorious State, which I have also imagined, but not yet anywhere seen."

sector

(05/14/2002; 14:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75671)

Extraordinary Information Due Out in Tonight's...

http://www.lemetropolecafe.comIt may just be the beginning of the end.

GATA and its supporters have lacked funding, endured insults and indignities. We have battled the most powerful forces in the world who have unlimited funding and high-ranking political acolytes as their platoon. Through it all the fuel that has sustained GATA in this battle has been the truth.

Whether that truth came from dry statistics such as preemptive selling on the COMEX, FMS Treasury Reports of gold bullion discrepancies at West Point, NY, or dredged up from arcane GAAP Federal Government budget reports, it has kept us filled with strength and rising anger. Each finding made us stronger...especially the finding that the Federal Reserve's chief counsel, Virgil Mattingly, had lied regarding his own words on gold swaps as printed in the FOMC transcripts.

Reg Howe has been relentless, Bill Murphy tireless.

That truth has been an elixir...each sip has sustained the GATA army.

That truth reveals a monstrous scandal perpetrated by the Federal Reserve and its Chairman, Alan Greenspan and other senior government officials. A scam to depress the price of gold [Which smashed the economies of South Africa], gave birth to a $20.3 Trillion [Q3 2001] interest rate derivative book at JPM, inflated the bubbles of real estate, credit, equities and wildly inflated the monetary aggregate bubble. The Congressional debt ceiling has been exceeded by $2 Trillion. Crudle Reports that there is a GAAP $515 Billion budget deficit.

The DNA of the perpetrators can't be hidden. The financial murder scene can never be cleansed...no matter how hard the Fed may try. The spin won't work any more. We are finding more and more each day. The Princes of Darkness�The Masters of the Universe cannot stand the pure, searing light of truth.

New volunteers are joining our ranks�volunteers who offer deep capabilities. We are being helped.

When the decision was made by Rubin, Summers, Greenspan and Clinton to subvert a free market in gold for their own political aggrandizement they paid no mind the end-game. They chose not see the fatal flaws in their false tapestry. Instead they boasted of a "New Economy". Now it is all unwinding. Thread by thread, ounce by ounce, derivative by derivative, minute by minute. Unwinding to an inevitable disaster. It cannot be stopped. They are in far too deep. The truth is coming.

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 14:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75672)

Alert: 25 Al Quaeda stowaways sneak into US

http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/47811.htmU.S. COAST GUARD ISSUES AL QAEDA WARNING

By NILES LATHEM
-----------------------------------------------------------
May 14, 2002 -- The Coast Guard has issued an urgent warning to law enforcement agencies that as many as 25 terrorists linked to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network have sneaked into the United States aboard cargo ships, it was revealed yesterday.
Law enforcement officials confirmed a report on Fox News Channel that the Coast Guard alerted federal, state and local law enforcement agencies that it has received credible intelligence information that terrorist stowaways have entered "on prominent cargo vessels."

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 14:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75673)

Four Metal Traders Accused of Fraud

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020514/bank_fraud_1.htmlFour New Jersey Men Accused of Stealing Over $600 Million From Banks

Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Four executives for a group of New Jersey metal trading companies have been charged with stealing more than $600 million from banks around the world. "This is larceny as surely as breaking into the bank vault and hauling off bags of cash," Jim Sheehan, acting agent in charge of the FBI's New York office, said Tuesday

Court papers accused the men of carrying out the fraud for the last two years as they operated a group of metal trading companies in Piscataway, N.J., and a metal trading company in London.

Sheehan said the men fraudulently obtained hundreds of millions of dollars in financing by creating "phantom" collateral. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Fleet National Bank, PNC Bank, China Trust Bank and others were among the banks swindled. The defendants allegedly used loan proceeds from one bank to pay down the debt owed to another bank.

Black Blade: Don't ya just hate it when your derivatives blow up? New Jersey and London eh? Why doesn't that surprise me? These guys and Martin Armstrong will have a lot to talk about. And how about those banks? They get burned by Enron, then their Gold derivitives blow up, and now they get ripped off by metals traders. Just no honor among thieves.

RobotGuy

(05/14/2002; 14:33:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75674)

Sucker Rally times 2

I really feel sorry for all those poor b@stards that are pumping all that money into the still over inflated bubble. Imagine what would have happened if the proceeds from the two previous day's sucker rallies went into gold and related PM markets? I'm sure they wouldn't lose their sorry shirts as quickly.

SIOCHAIN - - 25 Al Quaida? That could be really bad news

I hope that fourth of July thing is just a big scare.

RobotGuy

(05/14/2002; 15:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75675)

Sorry, Al Qaeda, .. you know what I mean.

Siochain

(05/14/2002; 15:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75676)

RobotGuy

Actually my mistyping & spelling

Yes...this is serious...seems they are keeping the news pretty quiet

By the way...I'll be away a week so I leave it to you fine Knights & Ladies to see that gold moves up

Actually...it may have some a possible additional pullback....better to buy at lower prices ....though it should IMO be quicjly back up

That holding of the 307 June Comex was critical...may test again tomorrow. I figure the big buyers are just waiting for a chance to pick up more bargain gold

And all...say a prayer that those terrorists are quickly captured before they can act
Siochain/Peace!

IGWA

(05/14/2002; 15:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75677)

Gentlemen.....

Seeker - Good on you, Mate. KEEP YOUR GOLD HIDDEN FOR EVER!!Just buy some candles and beans first, so you won't die.

White Rose - Going over the border will be a big deal -if Canada do as Big Bro tells them & bans gold too. And the rest of the world. Remember you live in the most powerful nation on Earth, and other, lesser nations will conform, lest they incur the wrath of the mighty U.S. of A. It may be a bigger picture than we now imagine possible.

Limit Up - Wow! You have a Remington 870 Police Magnum! My, you do have a big one - I stand (well back) in awe. But if the Govt ever does play hard-ball, put your toy back in the sock drawer and do as the Military tell you, like a good boy. They have even bigger ones than you. And lots of them.

Folks, it's been fun but time consuming. This morning I was in the office at my usual 5-30AM, but instead of working, I'm playing on this site, so it's got to end - I'm reverting to an occassional twice- a- week lurker again (loud applause from darkhorse, limit up & others)

I'm flat chat running a small business to build up the nest egg before TSHTF mid 2003 IMHO.

Good luck all & au voir. And remember:

Candles & Beans - get you some

igwa

YGM

(05/14/2002; 16:18:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75678)

US Debt...No Default Says Fisher....Other Headlines...Peter Ryerson Headlines.

http://attach4.groups.yahoo.com/v1/4IjhPI5YvKW39OxIP6OGrly57w3i9StYpUrvZeLK696J2YGeCawvQeupYqbi0AOCk_4VDJ8c_yWdfms8MyQhZqvhUkSLZ1yJl_qn8A/sg60684.gifThis stuff has been passing thru the USA Gold Live News all day & is anyone paying attention.....

The times they are a changing and rapidly....

Go Gold & Go GATA!

Cavan Man

(05/14/2002; 16:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75679)

Aristotle, Belgian, miner49er,Mr. Gresham, ALL

Today I was thinking about the relatively recent statement by Alan Greenspan that his FED could buy "gold mines". This comment was made in a public address within the last 90 days or so. Think for a minute; what a BIZARRE thing to say. Keeping in mind that every word Mr. Greenspan utters has its own intention, either direct or indirect; can you believe the FED Chairman said the FED could buy gold mines? Such a comment! Remember, every verbal utterance has meaning.

My interpretation: his comment points to the dollar's ultimate defense. There are proven and probable large amounts of gold in North America. Could the FED actually buy a gold mine in NA or anywhere for that matter? Well, that got me thinking (a dangerous habit of mine). If the FED did buy a gold mine, never mind which gold mine; would the gold be sold forward to cap the market price? I don't think so. More likely, if the FED bought a gold mine, at that time, they would have lost control and the horse would be out of the barn. They (the FED) would be in a "we've got to buy a gold mine fast" scenario.

Further, if the FED bought a gold mine, what price would they be willing to pay? If the FED were known to be in the market for a gold mine (and it would be a hard seceret to keep), gold shares would rocket. But, would the FED pay the market price? If the FED was buying a gold mine I think we could safely assume there would be a monetary/economic crisis of some sort. In that case, I think the sale price of a gold mine to the FED would be "negotiated"--perhaps a euphemism for "confiscation" or, "nationalization" by other menas? This would be FOA's forecasted endgame for mining shares: a real nightmare. In this scenario, would physical gold be confiscated? I say likely not. The gains tax would be a real burden but why upset the apple cart of popular opinion when managing the appearance that all is fair and equitable?

Got to run. Sorry for the rambling. I know there are many, many people who think FOA etc is pure BS. Perhaps but, perhaps not. Why would the FED Chairman say that the FED could buy gold mines if they wanted/needed to? Why?

YGM

(05/14/2002; 16:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75680)

sector (05/14/02; 11:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 75647)

http://www.nypost.com/business/47855.htmThe impact of this type of info hitting mainstream press like the NY Post is a good beginning......Soon GATA info will be in the same limelight......IMO.....YGM.

Boilermaker

(05/14/2002; 16:59:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75681)

Earnings measures run amok as US investors watch

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020514/financial_earnings_1.htmlSnippet;
Reuters Company News
Earnings measures run amok as US investors watch

"S&P will start using an earnings measure that includes ugly costs companies would rather leave out -- like stock options and severance packages for executives. The move comes at a time when investor distrust of financial reporting is at an all-time high.

Investors have been ravaged by book-cooking abuses in recent times, led by the Enron Corp. (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) scandal and subsequent revelations about its auditor Andersen's (ANDR.UL) involvement in the saga. Even the most respected names in the corporate world, like IBM Corp. (NYSE:IBM - News) and General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE - News) , have received investor flak for their opaque financial statements.

"The markets swing wildly on the reported earnings -- whatever the hell they are -- which are often very misleading, but there's been very little criticism of it until Enron blew up," said James Melcher, president of investment firm Balestra Capital Ltd. "Nobody seemed to care during the bull market. Now they're beginning to care."

Adding insult to injury, investors are now learning energy traders like Reliant Resources Inc. (NYSE:RRI - News) used bogus power trades to boost revenues artificially.

Investors -- for whose benefit this is being arguably done -- cannot deny S&P's move is a step in the right direction to better gauge how a company's business is performing. But they would do well to brace themselves for some confusion while corporate America quibbles about how profits really ought to be valued."

Comment;

I didn't see when this new approach will start. Don't hold your breath.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/14/2002; 17:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75682)

My ship needs wind and I feel a breeze.

Looking at the 1 year gold chart, we have reached a consolidation plateau at the 310 level, This has not happened for a very long time. We had spikes and radical volatility in years prior but not a sustained two week consolidation at 310. It has got three small waves on it, that shows a top. The way it went up a little slow is good because maybe it will stay there. What is larger than life is the near perfect symmetry of the pan formations between the last two spikes. The same type of pan should form again to some extent. From what I see this move to 310 IS the first shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern setting up the next breakout. We have serious resistance (3 points touched)at 305. We are probably going there for half a week (worst case scenario) then we get to the threshold of nearly vertical ascent to a top at 335 = 305 + 30. The goldshares are like icecream in the sun without POG support. So what, we have waited and have been underwater before. The folks in physical will always have the last laugh. If it drops below 305, the situation is different. Every metals trader is watching 305. In the rodeo it's good to remember, the bull never really gets the clown, the clown just gets razzed up a bit. Longs are sweating but we all know the "Alkaseltzer Rally" won't last. Plop plop fizz fizz, Oh what a relief for bizz. Naaaaaaaa everyone in it has been spoofed before and musical chairs is a fun game to play. Where the shorting cats are away the mice go long for a play. When the indexes hit the walls, the mice will be climbing in the walls too. Have any fundamentals really changed? The triangle peak of April 2nd shows exact symmetry to the center peaks on July 20 and Dec 5. Elementary Watson. So the trend is in tack and that's a fact Jack! Beware of the onslaught of disinformation swirling around. Yeah DROOY's going down, but after every waterslide the kids all run back up to the top again. There are thousands of traders waiting for bargains to show up. And with lizards sneeking into the US in containers, it's a matter of time before the controlled wrath of God shakes the door jambs in some form or another. There have been millions of babies killed by their own mothers.....and lilly white won't say boo.......so just store up food now before the shelves are bare. There is only a two week food supply in the nation's food chain. Just in time delivery has it's downside risks too. I like survival talk, but where's the beef??? Millions for defense but not a nickel for your palate or plate. What's up with that, brilliant ones. They'll want your food hoard before your gold. The Chinese woman will say "Only problem with gold is you can't eat it". Yes but I can find a farmer who wants to be paid in real money,honey. I can eat gold. Some people even have gold stuck in their teeth.

June 28 the FED sells 22 Billion and better make it 25 BILLION of 5 year T-bills with New Jersey, Missouri, Mississippi, and Georgia all needing their allowances. And all the other states are all OK right? Who is going to be running to buy these bonds? Oil company's greed keeps a bonified energy policy at bay. They like instability because they can gouge at the pump.

This ship looks like its docked but when the wind blows hard, everyone will see it was never tied up to the pier.

-GR2

Sierra Madre

(05/14/2002; 17:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75683)

The FED "buying gold mines" - question raised by Cavan Man

Well, first off, I don�t know beans about this, I just throw it out for what it�s worth. (Probably not much!)

What if the gold mine(s) was already bought, and just the legitimation was necessary. Where I am going? I�m going to Barrick, known to be in bed with the price controllers, JPM and the Fed.

When push comes to shove, the FED will own Barrick through all the forward sales (hedging) done by Barrick through a mysterious counterparty bearing the risks - the FED. Is this way off the mark?

I don�t pay much attention to all these investigations - too complicated for me - but intuition tells me that Greenspan�s words were advance notice that the FED is going into the gold-mining business, not because they want to, because they HAVE to. When it happens, the spiel will be, "No sweat, we have planned on this possibility for a long time." ("Deep storage gold"?)

Any comments?

Sierra

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2002; 17:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75684)

Cavan Man

Your emphasis on Greenspan's way of speaking about things is astute. My most charitable view of Greenspan the former goldbug is like one of those hostages paraded before TV cameras, to show he is still in good health and being treated well. Only his eyelids are blinking a code to those back home. Captors probably will miss it.

His economic commentary is nothing if not PRECISE. Whether true or not, or borne out by events, he pre-packs each sentence consistent with a full discourse in economics (as it prevails today).

Whatever the purchase price, it will be in FRN equivalents, adding to that monetization (of gold stocks this time?), and will be worth whatever the currency is worth by then. But wouldn't the first such deal, perhaps imposing a "haircut" on the mining stock's owners, tend to dampen the price of all others? Sure would make for a good industry-wide purchase price, eh?

Something kind of like BIS's repurchase of Reg Howe's shares at half(?) off their fair market value?

Aristotle

(05/14/2002; 17:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75685)

:-D

"...you'll just have to whip out your New Yoga Manual, which shows the reclining position you were just sustaining by sheer willpower and force of character..."

That's a big smile in the subject line, Mr. Gresham!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

R Powell

(05/14/2002; 18:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75686)

So much to get

Gold, candles, GATA, silver, beans, cash, out-of-debt and antique patio furniture. What else am I supposed to get?
A list- get you one!
Rich

Jimbo

(05/14/2002; 18:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75687)

What happened?

OK, Black Blade and all you other experts, please tell us neophyte gold investors what the hell caused the price of gold to drop so precipitously today. I don't know about the rest of you, but I lost about two weeks of investment earnings in one day. Which makes me wonder, what made today's market rally different than yesterday's, when our gold investments made lots of money?

slingshot

(05/14/2002; 18:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75688)

Greenspan

There's Gold in them there hills!The buying of a gold mine by the FED would be something.
What would be the parameters on which the FED would base its findings in order to choose which mining company would have the most ore.Do mining companies have to report their exploration discoveries to the government? The land that is now off limits for oil be also hideing gold? If satelites using infra-red and radar impulse for oil discovery be used for gold? For the short term the FED might buy a mining company with less than accomadating production for a stopgap measure. Bringing all the High Tech to bare would decrease the exploration time while increasing the percentage of finding High Grade ore in the ground. My guess it will be a strip mine. Get the machinery there and start digging.
Slingshot----------------------<>

SteveH

(05/14/2002; 18:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75689)

Jimbo re: what happened?

Jimbo,

Today you have seen a volley shot across the Euroland bow and against the gold bulls. The Dollar faction is out in full regalia, but their ammo supplies wane. Nonetheless, their shots still fill the sky with black smoke rings and the ships do move sideways when the volley flies.

Steve

ps. Expect return fire.

Boilermaker

(05/14/2002; 18:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75690)

sector msg 75647

Here's the text of O'Neil Letter cited in John Crudele's 5/14 article

A MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY

I am pleased to present the fiscal year 2001 Financial Report of the United States Government. The Report includes audited financial statements that cover the executive branch, as well as parts of the legislative and judicial branches of the U.S. Government. In five years, we have made considerable progress but still have much to accomplish in order to reach our goal of timely and useful financial reporting.
Accrual based financial reporting is critical to gaining a comprehensive understanding of the U.S. Government's operations. For fiscal year 2001, our results were an accrual-based deficit of $515 billion in contrast to a $127 billion budget surplus reported last fall. The primary difference between the accrual deficit and the budget surplus is the recognition of expanded military retiree health benefit costs provided by the National Defense Authorization Act, which was signed into law on October 30, 2000, and other actuarial expenses. In fact, these expenses caused the government's future obligations to its military and civilian retirees to exceed the federal debt held by the public. As with other future obligations of the federal government, only accrual-based financial reporting provides this information in context to the public.
The drive to produce financial reports that better disclose our activities to the Congress and the public continues. This year, for the first time, we are presenting two years of data to facilitate comparative analysis. In addition, we have added two new financial statements. The Reconciliation of Net Operating Revenue/(Cost) to the Budget Surplus (unaudited) explains the differences between the accrual and budget results. The Disposition of the Budget Surplus (unaudited) explains how the budgetary surplus was utilized.
We have made progress toward the three goals I laid out last year.
@ For fiscal year 2004, agencies' financial statements are due 45 days after the fiscal year-end with the consolidated Financial Report due by December 15th. This accelerated timing will finally allow adequate time to have the financial statements considered in the budget process. The ultimate goal of the financial information in this report is for it to be used by decision-makers to improve the management and programs of me Federal government.
@ After completing our review, we are implementing a new process, developed in consultation with the Office of Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office, for preparing future financial statements which will enhance their integrity.
@ The Treasury Department continues to develop a govemmentwide accounting system that will greatly improve the agencies' access to data, reduce redundant data reporting, and eliminate reconciliations between the cash amounts shown on agency and Treasury books.
I believe that the American people deserve the highest standards of accountability and professionalism from their Government and I will not rest until we achieve them.

Paul H. O'Neill

Comment;
There seems to be a trend to raising the financial reporting standards. The media is trying to ignore it.

slingshot

(05/14/2002; 18:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75691)

R Powell Msg.# 75686

ListBeer.
Slingshot-----------------<>

miner49er

(05/14/2002; 18:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75692)

Cavan Man - FED buying gold mines...

Like Sierra Madre, I don't know anything about this commentary either, and likewise also don't keep up with the details of all the whodunnit stuff (makes the head swim...). But...

Remember with reading FOA/Another's stuff -- it is not their prognostications that are the most meaningful part of what they say. It is the comprehensive reasoning that leads to their conclusions where the real substance is found. For anyone that has examined closely what they have said, this should all seem like just the next pieces falling in place -- and all so very naturally!

btw... any state owned mines in Argentina...?

---------

Belgian - nice work today... enjoyed it!

Mr Gresham @ 75651 - "Find a place where people are taking BIG steps forward in their mental emancipation, and catch a ride!" Amen!

gotta run... cheers,

miner

turkey hunter

(05/14/2002; 19:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75693)

Breaking News in Worldnetdaily

The US Government is really shuffling the papers now. Will be broke by June 28th. Isn't the ESF part of the gold reserves?

Snippit...
Treasury's plans to tap the two trust funds, suspend issuance of state and local government securities, use its cash reserves held with large banks, and potentially resort to the Exchange Stabilization Fund and Federal Financing Bank for stopgap cash, will add a total of roughly $80 billion to the government's borrowing capacity.

sector

(05/14/2002; 19:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75694)

@Jimbo There is One and Only One Reason Gold is not Over $400

It has to do with the government's desire to keep it suppressed......by the sale of US bullion reserve from the US Treasury. Why should the government care? Because they built a $16Trillion interest Rate derivative book that is in mortal jeapardy because if gold pops up the dollar gets hammered and then interest rates MUST rise to protect the dollar. So EVERYTHING the FED does is linked to gold. This is why they lie about gold so frequently...their very existence depends upon maintaining the charade that gold's price action is "Benign".

The real question should not be why gold went down today or any day but how much does the cabal have left? The answer to that question has up until now been very hard to crack. It is now clear that the famous quotation "Absolute power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely" should be followed. By that I mean that the cabal has been operating [For 6 years] in a domain of absolute power over the markets. That power has waned. So too has the power over the gold markets.

Is it 1000 tonnes... 5,000 tonnes that they have left? I don't know exactly. However, I know they are on a rationing program...as if they were lost in an aircraft...conserving "fuel".

Meanwhile Black Blade keeps us up to date on the building energy crisis and the ME war status.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 19:23:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75695)

Re: Jimbo � What Happened?

What happened? The overvalued US Dollar became even more overvalued as some investors (foreign and domestic) decided to go off chasing rainbows. Corporate earnings really didn't make any improvements over the last quarter. Unemployment continues to climb. Corporate and consumer debt rises to record levels. The list goes on.

I am not concerned as my other investments have climbed (particularly energy) as my Gold investments sank. But that's not a problem at all. Gold is more of an insurance policy against economic turmoil. Even so, Gold may get cheaper and that only means more possible opportunities to build a larger position at lower prices. I have easily quadrupled my Gold investments by rolling shares on doubles and buying on larger pullbacks. However, Gold is not my only investment. I also have investments in energy, utilities, techs (gulp), biotechs, and energy trusts.

My physical Gold position is my ultimate insurance against what may come. The economic future is not all that rosy as I have outlined above. My Gold position has grown to roughly 35% (maybe more). I find it amusing that many people are running scared at every turn of the market. I find in "interesting" and usually I find myself with a fishing rod in my hand. Actually I just got in a couple of hours this afternoon and will be out tomorrow afternoon as well. So obviously I don't get to excited over the short term whip saw movements of the markets � be they Gold, Stocks, or whatever. The fundamentals suggest that in spite of the Wall Street Pimps and Media Trolls extolling the virtues of the "two-day rally", the data actually suggests that we are looking straight down the throat of a financial disaster in the making.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 19:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75696)

EIA predicts higher prices for US oil, gas

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=143662
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 14 -- Pushed by a combination of psychological factors and market fundamentals, the market price for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices could rise to almost $30/bbl in 2003, unless members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increase production by a meaningful amount in the last half of this year, officials at the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration said recently.

Although OPEC ministers have since indicated that they will not change the group's current production quotas at their June meeting, EIA officials assumed in a May 6 report that the increase will occur, keeping WTI prices below $30/bbl.

Natural gas market

The US gas market this summer is projected to grow 4.4% above last summer's level because of lower gas prices and the slowly reviving economy. US spot prices for natural gas have hovered above $3/Mcf since March, partly as a result of unusual weather patterns in March and April, EIA reported. March and much of April were colder than normal, but an unusual and intense heat wave also occurred in late April, producing a surge in electricity demand for cooling with subsequent increased demand for natural gas by the power sector.

That was exacerbated by the rising price of crude due to market concerns over political tensions in the Middle East and a sense that the US economy is recovering more rapidly than previously expected, officials said. Incremental new capacity of gas-burning plants, both proposed or under construction, also is adding to gas demand growth. Meanwhile, natural gas production, as well as drilling and exploration, have recently fallen off, resulting in a less rosy supply outlook for the near term.

Natural gas demand is projected to increase by 2.8% this year over 2001 levels and to increase by another 4.2% in 2003, primarily as a result of growing demand for gas in the industrial and electric power generating sectors. By 2003, all market sectors are expected to increase demand for natural gas.

Black Blade: Natural Gas is the real sleeper in the Energy equation. It appears that we could very well be headed toward a new energy crisis. That alone will likely kill the US economic growth let alone any economic recovery.

Jin-Yin

(05/14/2002; 19:58:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75697)

Jim Puplava's Market Rap

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Good commentary and worth reading his adventures in Las Vegas and Arizona.
___________

At the hotel I had a copy of the local rag delivered to my room. I was struck by the headlines of the day. The headline read, "Payoffs of low inflation." The article discussed the recent Producers Price Index for April, which was up only 0.2%. The article went on to extol the blessings of low inflation and how it would benefit consumers. The article talked about how television sets had dropped in price from $399 for a 25-inch set in 1974 to $199 today; an LED watch was $29.95 in 1976 and only $7.99 now; a gallon of milk had gone up only $0.02 I since 1987. The article said that with low inflation, the Fed would not have to raise interest rates as previously expected. As I read the article, I once again thought about how economically illiterate our nation has become. The gist of the article was there was no sign of inflation to be seen anywhere other than food and energy prices, which were excluded from the report and dismissed because they are more volatile.
___________

I quickly ran the prices above through the inflation calculator. Interesting to find that the cost of the same TV today would be $1,529 in 1974 dollars. That's a far cry from $199 quoted above and a 283% increase with inflation running 10% on average during those 27 years. And I thought it was always 3% yearly inflation but then this is electronics where technology becomes cheaper due to efficiencies and economies of scale. Obviously prices for food and fuel are superfluous.

The watch would be $94 in today's inflated dollars. Twenty-nine dollars today would only be $9 in 1976 and would roughly buy you a third of the same watch. Simply amazing!

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 20:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75698)

U.S. TREASURY WEB SITE REVEALS $ HALF-TRILLION DEFICIT By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/47855.htmU.S. TREASURY WEB SITE REVEALS $ HALF-TRILLION DEFICIT By JOHN CRUDELE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

May 14, 2002 -- HARDLY anyone noticed but the Federal budget deficit rose to more than a half-trillion dollars last year. That's not a typo. My typing is just fine. And that incredible figure comes from no less an authority than U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill.

What I've stumbled upon is shocking - both for the information provided and for the way in which the news was delivered. Carefully hidden on a Treasury Department Web site is an undated letter from Secretary Paul O'Neill that puts the deficit number last year at quadruple what Congress is worried about. Here are O'Neill's written words in a "Message From the Secretary Of The Treasury: "In five years, we have made considerable progress but still have much to accomplish in order to reach our goal of timely and useful financial reporting," O'Neill wrote.

He then goes on to explain what's really happening. "Accrual based financial reporting is critical to gaining a comprehensive understanding of the U.S. Government's operations. For fiscal 2001, our results were an accrual-based deficit of $515 billion in contrast to a $127 billion budget surplus reported last fall," said O'Neill.

Five hundred and fifteen BILLION dollars. That's on a total federal budget of $2.1 trillion.

But don't go thinking that O'Neill or Washington really wants you to see this stuff. This letter, I suspect, was simply put on the record so Washington can later deny hiding anything. As far as I know, this letter was never made public in the conventional way.

And here's what you have to do to find it: Go to www.USTreas.gov, click on "Treasury Bureaus" on the left, then click on "financial management services." Once you are there, click on "Financial Report of the U.S. Government." Download it. Now go to page 5, which you can only accomplish by fiddling in just the right way with the bar on the right.

Black Blade: No comment needed.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 20:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75699)

Treasury to dodge debt default

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/14/markets/bondcenter/debt_limit.ap/index.htm
Department plans to move retirement funds into non-interest bearing accounts to avoid debt ceiling.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration plans to shift billions of dollars of civil service retirement funds to non-interest bearing accounts on Wednesday in a move to prevent the federal government from defaulting on the national debt.

The Treasury Department's action, announced Tuesday, would free up room for more for government borrowing. The move is necessary because the department's request to extend the government's authority to borrow has been mired in a political fight on Capitol Hill. Lower-than-expected tax payments are putting a big squeeze on the government's cash flow. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has repeatedly asked Congress to boost the debt limit by $750 billion. The limit now stands at $5.95 trillion.

Black Blade: Funny isn't it? A few years ago it was the Republicans who were sitting on the Federal budget and they got raked over the coals. Today it's the Democrats doing the same thing. Besides the US is bankrupt. It's just a flurry of printing dollars now. If the US Government were a business rated by Moody's, the Federal debt would be rated "junk".

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 20:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75700)

economy, unfair regulations.

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/14/technology/sbc/index.htmSBC to cut 5,000 jobs

Struggling regional phone service provider cites weak
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - SBC Communications Inc. plans to cut about 5,000 jobs in the second quarter, the company said Tuesday, citing a sluggish economy and a "burdensome regulatory environment."

Black Blade: The US economic recovery is so strong that the largest US telephone utility has to fire 5,000 and finds it difficult to stay in business. More "Phone Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 20:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75701)

Bad debt, credit delinquency rise

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1407178
Snippit:

Many Americans are still falling behind on their credit card payments. The report, by Moody's Investors Service, is based on its tracking of securities backed by credit card receivables.

Bad debt written off as uncollectible, as an annualized percentage of the total, amounted to 6.4 percent in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 1998, according to the report. The delinquency rate, for payments 30 or more days late, rose to 5.4 percent in the first quarter from 5.2 percent in the period a year earlier.

With the unemployment rate rising and many wages shrinking, the figures show the danger of being overextended on credit. William Black, a senior analyst at Moody's, said many affluent consumers had converted their debt to mortgage or home equity debt, which carries lower rates and is usually tax deductible. But people who don't own homes have no such option.

Black Blade: Both consumer and corporate debt have risen to record levels. Too many are definitely counting (and praying) for an economic recovery before the money runs out. Watch for the number of consumer and corporate bankruptcies to continue rising.

Black Blade

(05/14/2002; 21:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75702)

Gold vs. Dollar

http://www.futuresource.com/cfnews.asp?s=iis2&c=30&aid=57297
Snippit:

New York, May 14 (OsterDowJones) - Comex Jun gold futures settled down $3.30 per ounce at $307.60 per ounce Tuesday after a bounce higher in the U.S. dollar against other currencies and a surge in U.S. equity markets conspired to convince speculative longs to liquidate some of their positions. This rise in the dollar not only drew attention away from the gold market, but also deterred foreign-based bullion demand which aided the slump.

However, as has been the case on many of the recent bouts of weakness, steady dip-buying from consumers and professional traders stemmed the tide before too long, and ensured that support at $307 was not sternly tested. Indeed, many sources argued that gold continues to be viewed as a 'buy' as long as prices remain above the $305 mark.

"The fundamentals remain supportive, which lead us to believe that any pullback in prices is an opportunity to buy the metal," said Swiss brokers MKS Finance in an overnight report. "We continue to think that as long as $305 holds, the yellow metal has potential to make new highs," it added.

Black Blade: The Gold selling appears to be USD related. It is difficult to keep propping up the overvalued dollar, however, most other countries are aggressively devaluing their currencies to boost their sagging economies while they play the Americans for the fool. It's only a matter of time before the USD hits the wall (and hard).

Max Rabbitz

(05/14/2002; 21:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75703)

IGWA

It's candles, beans, guns, and gold.
But not necessarily in that order.

I know the feeling. I'm spending 8 am to 7 pm in the office/lab. Spend what's left trying to prepare.

kludge

(05/14/2002; 22:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75704)

@Mr. Powell - and all

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20020514-73523316.htmYou might add potassium iodide to the list.
http://www.tacda.org/products/radblock.html

And don't forget the antibiotics, lest you find yourself standing in line with the sheeple should TSHTF. Both are cheap insurance with a long shelf life.

JCTex

(05/14/2002; 22:48:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75705)

Black Blade

"Black Blade: The US economic recovery is so strong that the largest US telephone utility has to fire 5,000 and finds it difficult to stay in business. More "Phone Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile"."

Now, now, Black Blade. Remember, this is a profitless recovery and a jobless recovery as well. We don't need those paychecks to buy things that might generate a profit for some company.

We'll just dump some more bones on the bone pile, and let the jobless recovery carry us on to glory!!

Yessir, Uncle Alan and his merry band of media will take care of everything. No problem.

balzac

(05/14/2002; 23:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75706)

Antique lawn furniture

Aristotle and Mr. GreshamPerhaps if you were to paint your lawn furniture with silver

Or nickel rather than invisible paint as mr. G. suggests; the

PTB or their agents may not recognize it as valuable at all

and simply pass it by. Remember they are all governed by the

Doctrine of Collective Ignorance : Don't attempt to learn or investigate anything before your associates or you may be
subjected to contempt,ridicule or threat of discipline.

Have faith in their doctrine.

Balzac.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 00:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75707)

Norway to slash June oil output in line with cuts

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/05/14/rtr601427.html
Snippit:

LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - Norway is set to slash oil supplies in June by more than 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) as the nation's oil companies embark on a last-minute dash to comply with stiff output cuts, trade sources said on Tuesday. "All the main Norwegian programmes are cut sharply this month," said one Nordic trader.

Black Blade: Less oil to market. Currently NY Crude remains above $29.00/bbl.

Usul

(05/15/2002; 00:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75708)

Greeny

The utterings of Alan Greenspan evoke for me the Gary Larson cartoon about cats... where a person is talking to a cat, and the panel is titled "What people say"; but the next panel is of the cat, looking at the person (who now has a blank speech bubble), and this panel is labelled "what cats hear".

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 02:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75713)

Peak Oil: an Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion

http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/oilg/p0070.htmWorld: Oil And Gas Industry - Peak Oil: an Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion - C.J.Campbell - Revised February 2002

Snippit:

This paper is about Peak Oil. It truly is a turning point for Mankind, which will affect everyone, although some more than others. Those countries, which plan and prepare, will survive better than those that do not. It is a large and difficult subject, but the essentials are clear.

In summary, these are the main points that have to be grasped:

Conventional oil - and that will be defined - provides most of the oil produced today, and is responsible for about 95% all oil that has been produced so far.

It will continue to dominate supply for a long time to come. It is what matters most.

Its discovery peaked in the 1960s. We now find one barrel for every four we consume.

Middle East share of production is set to rise. The rest of the world peaked in 1997, and is therefore in terminal decline.

Non-conventional oil delays peak only a few years, but will ameliorate the subsequent decline.

Gas, which is less depleted than oil, will likely peak around 2020.

Capacity limits were breached late in 2000, causing prices to soar leading to world recession.

The recession may be permanent because any recovery would lead to new oil demand until the limits were again breached which would lead to new price shocks re-imposing recession in a vicious circle.

World peak may prove to have been passed in 2000, if demand is curtailed by recession.

Prices may remain weak in such circumstances but since demand is not infinitely elastic they must again rise from supply constraints when essential needs are affected

Black Blade: Good article as outlined above.

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2002; 02:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75714)

Black Blade

If they ever retire the Energizer Rabbit, can we put you forward as a replacement, allowing MK and the rest of us to retire in the luxury we truly deserve? ;-)

Zenidea

(05/15/2002; 03:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75715)

deaf ears

Not one nibble from my last post ?. Perhaps to give us a sence of continuity over time , one might be blessed with
1) Sensory 2) Thoughts 3) Feels 4) Intentions and 5) Action. IN THAT ORDER !. Lets guess that the Sensory and the Action are the outer parts of us ? and lets guess that the Thoughts , Feels and Intentions are our inner self , I mean surely Feelings are an evaluative responce to a thought ?; yeah and they dont age , across all species and until one may pass these feels ones intentions may linger on such that the thoughts / feels wheel becomes stuck and hence cyclicle. Yes Confusion .
I guess what I am trying to say is that by way of my modality or understanding I 1 of 5 observe, hear, smell ,taste and we touch apon alot of issues deduceing a supportative hope in these documents that the price of gold will rise and I do ponder on the words as the real Aristotle put it.
"People travel to wonder at the heights of the mountains,
at the huge waves of the sea, at the long courses of the rivers, at the vast compass of the ocean, at the circular motion of the stars, and yet they pass by themselves without wondering ". when many of you in this forum will go from chat to intention and action ?; because it seems to me that some are making a killing and others are still dreaming . I am sorry to be hard but many of you need to act on your intentions rather than father a faith of settling on hope. My friends if this upsets you it just means you understand . I give you Gold.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 03:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75716)

Oil Inventories

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020514/ap_on_bi_ge/commodities_1
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) - Crude oil and refined products futures vaulted at the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, propelled by concerns over tightening supplies and Middle East tensions. June crude oil futures rose 98 cents to $29.36 a barrel, the highest level since September. Expectations that U.S. crude oil inventories would see another weekly decline added to the upward momentum. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute Tuesday afternoon showed crude inventories fell 7.36 million barrels to 313.74 million barrels for the week ended May 10, more than 10 million barrels below year ago levels.

Adding to the jump in oil prices Tuesday, Norway � a major independent oil exporter � announced plans to slash its June production by more than 600,000 barrels a day to comply with pledges made to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Worldwide petroleum supplies will become progressively tighter in the second half of 2002 if OPEC fails to lift output curbs, the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based group of major oil-consuming nations, said Monday.

Black Blade: Inventories are below last year's levels on a greater than expected drop in supply. OPEC and non-OPEC producers vow to restrict production at least until the June meeting. There is no incentive to increase production as the economy is "recovering".

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 04:00:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75717)

J.P. Morgan Technical Analyst Tells Customers To Sell Gold

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4252963059600130112
Snippit:

New York, May 14 (OsterDowJones) - J.P. Morgan Chase is recommending that some of its customers "close all longs in gold," in a technical strategist research note.

Black Blade: It appears that ol� JP Morgan Chase has it's tit caught in a wringer and needs a helping hand from clients as the Gold derivatives blow up.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 04:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75718)

The Barbarous Relic Files - Peru's gold-diggers scrape out meager existence

http://www.cnet.com/investor/news/newsitem/0-9900-1028-9896488-0.html?tag=ats

Snippit:

SINJACHE, Peru, May 14 (Reuters) - Sebastian Caquiamarca, 65, lives in a hut made of sticks and plastic in a tiny hamlet in southern Peru and spends his days splitting rocks by hand searching for gold. "Life here is tough but it helps me to survive in a country where we old people are worthless," Caquiamarca told Reuters as he arranged the wooden plank he sleeps on in his tiny shelter.

Caquiamarca and 22 other unemployed men, and their wives and children, literally scratch out a living by scraping the rocks of Sinjache, a hamlet 9,840 feet (3,000 metres) up in the steep dry mountains south of Lima. You won't find the hamlet on any map of Peru, but it is by no means the only one of its kind. In a country where more than half the population lives on just $1.25 a day or less, thousands of informal gold miners toil like Caquiamarca.

What they don't know is that the gold they struggle to extract makes up 14 percent of Peru's annual gold output of some 133,000 kilograms (4.276 million ounces) . Bullion is this poor Andean nation's biggest foreign currency earner, netting around $1.2 billion a year in exports, according to official figures.

A day in the life of a Peruvian gold-digger starts even before the sun is fully up as the miners, their picks slung over their shoulders and carrying food and offerings for the gods, climb nearby hills to their seams inside deep tunnels. Just like the miners of the ancient Inca empire, whose fabled riches lured thousands of Spanish conquistadors, the miners kneel on the ground to ask permission from Pachamama (Mother Earth in the Andean language, Quechua) to wound her with their digging.

"Sometimes Pachamama is angry and even though we work all day, we don't find a gram of gold. That's a sad day for our stomachs, children cry from hunger, but all we can do is wait for the next day," said Sonia Rodriguez, helping her husband.

Scratching the rocks out of the seam is just the start. Then the miners have to carry their haul down the mountain. There, they pound it in huge stone mortar -- the "pestle" is another large stone which one miner stands on and rocks from side to side to pulverize the metal -- while water and mercury are mixed in to separate out the gold. The miners are so poor that many have to rent the mercury they use, and some end up in debt if they are unable to recover all the mercury at the end of the process.

Black Blade: Then the racist bullion bankers work to keep the POG low and the poor "black and brown peoples" of the world oppressed. A higher POG would help pull millions out of poverty. Meanwhile these people toil under difficult conditions. A lot of work for a "barbarous relic". Interesting article.

Spartacus

(05/15/2002; 04:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75719)

U.K. Deficit Would Be Allowed After Switch to Euro

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APOG2BxUFVS5LLiBE
London, May 15 (Bloomberg) -- The European Commission would allow Britain to run a budget deficit for as much as two years after switching to the euro, the Financial Times reported, citing an unidentified senior European Union official.

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2002; 04:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75720)

Zenidea (05/11/02; 23:52:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 75452)

Nah! (Or, "Nigh", in Kiwi.) You're just a little out ahead of the rest of us.

I got: "Velocity. I guess that I differ from most posters in that I can assure that gold is worth 600 + right now in that ( apart from waiting for the graph to move ) all it needs is velocity i.e heat !. "

And some good tips on beaches and HK shoppes.

Reminds me; I've gotta crawl under the kitchen sink and remove someone who was "nibbling" there last night.

I tend to shoot through Numbers 1-5 pretty quickly, but I'm trying to cut back...knowwhutahmean?

miner49er

(05/15/2002; 06:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75721)

Black Blade - Thanks for your on-going work at the Forum...

Sir Blade - just want to say thank you for your daily vigilance in providing the forum with information...

Every morning I generally go through my routine of visiting a handful of sites to try to get a feel for what's going on out there... But I notice more frequently, that when I see you're on a roll, I save a fair bit of time by just visiting the links you provide, or even just scanning the "snippits." If I then go out to some of my usual haunts, I find I've often already been made aware of this or that out on the USAGold Forum.

So again, thanks... the faithful efforts are appreciated by many!

miner

Graefin

(05/15/2002; 07:04:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75722)

BB: JPMorgan

Are you sure it was hit "tit" caught in the wringer???
- Gr�fin

YGM

(05/15/2002; 07:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75723)

US Probes Currency Traders And Anti-Trust Investigators Get In The Act.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlWhere are you guys when it comes to the Gold Market...What a joke!! Oh well sooner or later it will come to the Gold world, but obviously later....After the damage is done.

Waverider

(05/15/2002; 08:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75724)

UBS: Gold to get even stronger in 2002

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1185036,00.htmlSnippit:
"Switzerland's largest bank joined the ranks of analysts raising their gold price projections after the precious metal shot this month to its highest level in more than two years.

UBS Warburg lifted its price projection for this year to $305 an ounce from its previous prediction of $296 an ounce, and said that the metal is on course to trade in a range between $290 and $335 an ounce for the remainder of 2002.

UBS Warburg, the world's largest manager of private client wealth, focused on a decision by leading mining companies to cut back on the amount of the gold they sold into forward markets and on strong consumer demand as factors leading gold higher.

"Gold has performed strongly in 2002, driven by reductions of the gold miners' hedge books and a welcome return of investment demand to the gold market," said UBS Warburg analyst John Reade in London.

Japanese investment demand was also fanning gold higher, backed by widespread purchases in North America and Europe, UBS Warburg said.

"Based on our own proprietary sales information, sales of investment gold into Europe and North America have exceeded the flows into Japan," Reade said.

Leigh

(05/15/2002; 08:54:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75725)

"Snow Treasure"

I bought a wonderful children's book about gold the other day at a Scholastic Book Fair. It's called "Snow Treasure" by Marie McSwigan. It's the thrilling story of some Norwegian children who transport the country's gold on their sleds to keep the approaching Nazis from capturing it. The book was written in 1942 and is back in print. Most online booksellers have it in stock.

The reading level is grades three through five, though it's a fun reading experience for almost anyone.

Cavan Man

(05/15/2002; 09:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75726)

Leigh

"The Well-Trained Mind"
Jessie Wise and Susan Wise Bauer

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2002; 09:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75727)

Floored

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Why is this confidence growing that we'll never see $300 again? What does this mean as that same expectation grows around the world? A floor under POG?

That translates into "Risk 8, Reward ??00's" in the minds of the profit-minded.

He's broken through the last tacklers and 80 yards of clear running ahead.

GR2 -- good to see you back and schuss(sp?)ing along those same slippery mental slopes...

YGM

(05/15/2002; 09:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75728)

300 Million $ Hedging Dispute in Court....AIG...S Africa.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlWe'll see alot more of this in future....

Love this Live Newswire service here....

YGM

(05/15/2002; 10:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75729)

Fed Gone Mad....

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.htmlFed has added 25.5 Billion in Repos since May 1/02...

YGM

(05/15/2002; 10:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75730)

Time for a Re-Read.....

http://www.sennholz.com/debt.htmlMr. Sennholz always puts financial understanding in terms even this novice can understand......

Excerpt.....

This "safe haven" actually is a very dangerous harbor carrying the biggest debt on earth. At the end of 2001 the United States had a net external debt consisting of direct foreign investment and investment in financial paper of some $2 trillion 700 billion. Americans import much more than they export, suffering current account deficits of some $400 billion a year or 4 percent of GNP. At the present rate of deficits the U.S. external debt may soon surpass the Federal Government debt; it is the most dangerous of all because it casts a dark shadow over the U.S. dollar. The present hassle about the Treasury debt ceiling may remind foreign investors that the safe harbor is heavily mortgaged and sinking ever deeper into debt. If a few fearful foreign investors should suddenly liquidate their dollar investments for any reason, American capital markets would come under severe liquidation pressure. If a few Arab oil sheiks should add their weight to the pressure, they could precipitate a panic run. The U.S. dollar would plummet, interest rates would soar, and equity markets would crash. It could shake the world financial and economic structure.

YGM

(05/15/2002; 10:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75731)

Shock Therapy...Force Japanese Banks into Bankruptcy....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/japan/story/0,7369,715332,00.htmlEXCERPT......

Ailing Japanese economy runs out of options

As Japan's debt rating sinks to the same level as Botswana's, it may be time for some unconventional medicine, writes Mark Tran.

Tuesday May 14, 2002

International credit rating agencies are about to downgrade Japan's rating to below Botswana's despite howls of protests from the world's second largest economy.
It will be the latest humiliation for a country that not so long ago was seen as poised to overtake the US as the world's leading economic power. The idea seems laughable now but in the late 1980s and early 1990s, pseudo experts churned out books predicting how Japan was about to buy up America, from its film studios in Hollywood to its prestige skyscrapers in Manhattan.

Instead America reigns supreme, its economic problems notwithstanding, while Japan remains mired in an economic morass. Japan has entered its third recession in 10 years, locked in the most serious debt and deflationary spiral to hit an industrialised country since the global slump of the 1930s. Successive Japanese governments have tried to resuscitate the economy through vast spending public programmes and low interest rates - now at zero. But the measures have proved futile.

Japanese consumers have little incentive to spend as they know that tomorrow, prices will sink. Demographic pressures are also at work. Japan has an ageing population due to a low birth rate, compounded by low immigration. As people approach retirement age, they want to save rather than spend, feeding the deflationary spiral.

Meanwhile, the banking system threatens to implode. Japanese banks sit on the world's largest debt pile, about Y43 trillion (�227bn). The Japanese government has set up a special state agency, the Resolution and Collection Corporation, to buy up bad loans, but the RCC is making snail-like progress having bought just Y63bn since January.

In setting up the RCC, Japan is following in the footsteps of the US, which set up a similar organisation to deal with the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, when hundreds of financial institutions went bust after recklessly expanding from mortgage lending. That episode cost about $300bn in taxpayer money.

Any number of suggestions have been made to extricate Japan from its current plight. The most extreme would be to push many of Japan's troubled banks into bankruptcy, a sort of shock therapy that would "cleanse" the country of all those dud banks. Shock therapy always sounds great in practice, but you never know what unsavoury politicians lurk in the undergrowth to capitalise on social and political turmoil. As history teaches us, economic upheaval can easily pave the way for demagogues to exploit people's fears and insecurities.

Cont'd @ Link...

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2002; 10:31:30 MDT - Msg ID: 75732)

YGM

Hearing a lot about Botswana lately -- is there an arb play here? ;-)

Great posts lately!

RobotGuy

(05/15/2002; 10:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75733)

I feel a spike - day coming on,.. hows about tomorrow. Sound good?

No reason, just felt like trying to predict the impossible. I'll even go so far as to say the spike will have a ten dollar range.

Cheers!!

YGM

(05/15/2002; 11:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75734)

Mr Gresham.....

Ego me bene habeo :>}Ipsa scientia potestas est

Est unusquisque faber ipsae suae fortunae

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/15/2002; 12:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75735)

Be deliberate in your life, not idle or random

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Ozzie

(05/15/2002; 12:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75736)

Slowly...Stealthfully....

The CRB rises.

Rock

(05/15/2002; 13:40:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75737)

YGM's Re-read. msg 75730

Hey YGM that was deep! Thanks for the re-post because that was my first swipe at it.

Rock

Rock

(05/15/2002; 14:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75738)

Dow Down Gold Up

I knew it was a suckers rally. Like I said, the market looks like a dying man on an EKG machine. Did any of you hear about that truck carrying 10 tons of Potassium Cynide that was hyjacked by three men at gun point in Mexico City? The media says not to worry it probably wasn't terrorist.

Rock

Belgian

(05/15/2002; 14:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75739)

@ Cavan Man : The FED buying Goldmines ???

Unlimited mining (printing) of green (and other) paper, plus confiscation of underground Gold...is REALLY, really, really, a bit too much of the good...don't you think so dear Knight ? Moneycreation plus Taxation is as good as *owning* and *controlling*.

Please, do some very simple math again : An infinitesimal amount of confetti out of that enormous ocean of confetti, can blow the POG to the moon in a fraction of a second !
Each and every day, only 10 tonnes of New Physical Gold changes hand (2.500 tonnes : 250 trading days a year).
Imagine that a fistfull of Western or exotic financiers, decide to accumulate new Gold by doubling that daily amount of 10 tonnes for the next 100 days !? 1.000 tonnes x 350$/ounce (and rising) = 10 Billion $ (and rising) !
This Gold-Raid would benefit those Giant private Goldholders already holding 20.000 tonnes or more. Do you see "all" the different proportions in this hypothetical Goldplay ? Gold... its price and Value are oh so very delicate and fragile. Never to be forgotten in good and bad days as well.

Strange news : Nymex wants to swallow LME !!!-??? Don't like it.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 14:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75740)

S&P Touts Earnings Formula as Reality Check

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17532-2002May14.htmlCompanies Counter That the Numbers in Question Are Already Available

Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 14 -- Cisco Systems Inc. would have lost more than twice as much per share as it reported last year and General Electric Co. would have earned significantly less than it claimed under a new formula for calculating corporate earnings unveiled today by Standard & Poor's, the influential debt-rating agency.

S&P officials said that after includingas an expense the value of stock options granted to Cisco's employees, the firm would have lost 35 cents -- not 14 cents -- per share in 2001. After factoring out gains GE reported from pension-fund investments, the conglomerate would have earned $1.11 per share, 21 percent less than the $1.41 it reported, according to S&P.

Officials at Cisco and GE dismissed the S&P calculations, saying their companies report earnings according to the generally accepted accounting principles mandated by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). They added that the numbers cited by S&P were available in their annual reports for any investor or analyst who cared to look for them.

But S&P's chief investment strategist, David Blitzer, said such data often come out long after firms release quarterly earnings numbers. He argued that a new global standard for what he termed "core earnings" is needed to eliminate investor confusion over the many methods companies use to calculate earnings. "If nothing changes, investors will lose more and more faith in the stock market," Blitzer said. "They're going to start putting their money somewhere else."

Black Blade: "Put their money somewhere else" � in hard assets like Gold maybe? Many investors are sitting on the sidelines as they have lost confidence in Wall Street after Enron, Arthur Andersen, Global Crossing, Qwest, etc. Troll James Cramer recently stated that the Gold price must go down so that money will go into stocks and mutual funds. The fear of Gold is strong enough to give Wall Street the shivers.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 14:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75741)

Get-rich-quick mentality spurs stock flight from safety to risk

http://www.globetechnology.com/servlet/GAMArticleHTMLTemplate?tf=globetechnology/TGAM/NewsFullStory.html&cf=globetechnology/tech-config-neutral&slug=RSTOX&date=20020513
The era of speculative excess is alive and well.

ANALYSIS: Cisco profit changed market mood

Snippit:

After stock markets closed last Tuesday, network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc. reported its quarterly results, delivering a better-than-expected profit. The news delighted investors, who pushed Cisco stock up almost 25 per cent the next day. The get-rich-quick mentality dominated, driving the Nasdaq Stock Market's composite index up 7.8 per cent by the close of trading on Wednesday. The mania spread well beyond the technology sector -- adding more than 300 points to the Dow Jones industrial average -- as investors partied like it was 1999. The dull but reliable bond market, meanwhile, was crushed.

While Nasdaq's composite is worth less than a third of its March, 2000, bubble peak -- and the broader U.S. market is still stuck with losses of more than 30 per cent -- expectations of future riches among the investment community are heady. To Michael Berry, a money manager based near New York, there's more psychology at play than discerning fundamental analysis. "It's living in the past. It's hope."

The fear of missing the next big move is a hallmark of burst bubbles. The nine biggest daily percentage gains in Nasdaq's three-decade history have all occurred after the 2000 market peak. During this time, investors were continually told a booming recovery was just six months away -- just as investors are now told a big recovery is coming later this year.

The debt front, however, is more worrisome. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, individuals and corporations carry more debt than they ever have. Further, the ability to pay that money back -- personal disposable income/corporate cash flow compared with debt outstanding -- is at an all-time low. On the consumer front, the data lead to questions of where new growth will spring. While car and house buying continue at a rapid pace, notable increases seem unlikely. On the corporate front, with balance sheets severely stretched, a sudden surge in capital spending also seems unlikely.

Black Blade: I have discusses this several times already so I won't belabor the points here. As always, get out of debt (or as much as possible), get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, stash enough cash for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program (not just candles and beans). Look to Argentina to see what is possible.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 15:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75742)

Re: Miner49er .... all, - Thanks

Thanks to all who find useful information in these posts. I try to glean information from many sources in order to expose the true state of the markets and the world in general. Obviously the bulk of news is geared to present a more rosy picture and this tends to give false hope. I try to dig for the news that is not flashed on the front page (so to speak). Most major sources ignore the data and concentrate on the unrealistic rosy predictions Wall Street Pimps and Financial Media Trolls - that is their business - that is how they make a living. It is of no use to them to have the truth told if it drives the investor away from Wall Street and toward "flights to quality" such as Gold. Again, Thankyou to all who have expressed appreciation for the information that I dig up (it does cut into my fishing time though ;-)).

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 15:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75743)

U.S. probes currency trading

http://www.msnbc.com/news/752468.asp Investigation centers on whether banks� system stifled rival

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, May 15 � The Justice Department is investigating a group of the world's largest banks for allegedly using their online trading service to restrict competition in the foreign-currency market.

ANTITRUST ENFORCERS are looking at whether the electronic exchange FXAll, owned by 17 international financial institutions, sought to illegally crowd out a rival online service, according to lawyers close to the case and a letter the Justice Department has sent to Congress. Currency trading is the largest and least regulated market in the world, a Wild West of global capitalism where more than $1.2 trillion changes hands each day. Unlike major stock and commodities markets, the foreign-exchange market, or FX, operates with virtually no government or regulatory oversight. The market has long been dominated by the world's largest financial institutions, including Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group's CSFB, which are among the backers of FXAll.

Black Blade: There's a certain pattern that follows these bankers. Ethics are hard to come by with these big names (Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group's CSFB). JP Morgan Chase has had a very hard lately with horrific losses from Enron, losses from metals trading scams, losses from their crashing derivatives book, etc. The other bankers are all experiencing similar problems. It is curious that they are suffering losses from criminal activities though � could this be yet another case of "no honor among thieves"?

BTW, look how hard the USD is getting hammered today!

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 15:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75744)

USD Crashes, Oil and NG Crash, Gold Higher

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD got creamed by the basket of major world currencies today. The US Government investigation into criminal activities by several major banks in the currency trading sector can only aggravate the volatility. Gold rocked higher on the diving USD.

Oil and NG dropped hard on rumors that Hugo Chavez of Venezuela was shot and a major player was selling off oil contracts. None of this was true but it had already affected the energy markets. Also, only 39 bcf were added to NG storage last week. That is significant when usually at this time of year we should see well over 100 bcf being added. The lack of drilling activity along with increased NG demand suggests that we could see another energy crisis developing late this year.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym

Mexican

(05/15/2002; 15:48:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75745)

Happy Birthday Graefin!

Lots of health and trading success for the next decade. Keep the old bones up!

Un saludo muy cordial.

MX

Don't forget -> Margaritas forever...

Golden Bear

(05/15/2002; 16:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75746)

US economic "strength" and inflation

Just heard a CNBC troll spewing forth that the stronger than expected CPI figure is an indication that the US economy is on track for a continued recovery.

Investor memory is short - the US economy and the indexes went nowhere from 1966 - 1982, and we all know what happened to inflation then... and again, it's just around the bend.

Stagflation is the name of the game.

sector

(05/15/2002; 16:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75747)

@Black Blade msg 75740-Putting one's Money "Somewhere else"

Gold dosen't need an earnings reportAs for Wall Street's fear of gold...it's palpable.

Nelson Mandela came to NYC and the NYSE to ring the opening bell and celebrate GFIs inauguration. How many "Analysts" commented on that...the NBR? Cramer? CNN?

Nada.

Did the Administration greet Mr. Mandela with diplomatic courtesy? How about the new Mayor of New York City? Maybe the Governor of New York? Nope.

Mandela is in his eighties and has attained Gandhi-like World stage status. Perhaps they all thought he has AIDS and stayed away...just to be "Safe".

The "Disease" that Nelson Mandela carries IS lethal but it isn't HIV. It is fatal to corrupt governments. It is the "disease" of honest money...gold.

Instead of a formal greeting for President Mandela, Bush sends Don Knotts impersonator, SECTREAS O'Neill and Bono to Africa [But NOT South Africa] to arm-wave about "Poverty".

A school child of 9 could discern the mutated government bias against gold and anyone associated with the yellow metal. They suppose that it doesn't show...that their absurdly grotesque anti-gold leanings aren't luminescent.

It's like the financial mainstream media ignoring the $515 billion GAAP deficit. The whole camel is in the fiscal tent and these bozos pretend nothing is wrong!

What a collection of fools!

Waverider

(05/15/2002; 16:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75748)

***** Goldbug Party *****

Some of you will be in beautiful Vancouver on June 5/6th, 2002. I'd like to propose an opportunity to raise our glasses following the "GATA and Gold Forum" on June 5th. In other words...Party Time!

There are some superb restaurants in Vancouver, but a unique and fun event is a Dinner Cruise on the high seas (okay...calm waters of Vancouver Harbor). I'm quite happy to organize this if there's interest...if not...well...you just don't know what you're missing!

Is the party on?

Waverider

The Invisible Hand

(05/15/2002; 17:23:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75749)

What does this Forum stand for?

When the words "ANTI-TRUST" (a trust is a very useful common law institution) as in "Anti-Trust Laws", get mentioned, many posters think that gold is being defended. Has this Forum become a subsidiary of GATA? With all due respect (and thanks for his gargantuan work) to Black Blade, it does NOT follow from the fact that some financial institutions sought to" illegally"
(what is legally? Is that only what happens according to the laws of the politicians? Why did they make those laws? As Black Blade put, "Ethics are hard to come by", but there's a difference between Ethics and the law, the latter being just the will of the majority of the day)
crowd out a rival online service that they are suffering losses from (these governementally defined) criminal activities. YGM even asks where are the anti-trust guys when it comes to the Gold Market.
Ladies and Gentlemen, if anti trust laws were the only valid and available (and immoral) avenue to "do something about the POG", why is GATA still cheering even after the Howe suit has been dismissed and after Howe's announced efforts to still continue fighting the suit have apparently been halted?
Even GATA does no longer believe in (the necessity) antitrust laws (to achieve a higher POG.) Why do some posters here still do?

The requote Alan G. in tempore non suspecto;
The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't , simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat". It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when intitiated by government. It is an world in the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until the hear the judge's verdict � after the fact.
(GREENSPAN, A, Antitrust, in RAND, A, (ed.), Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal)

Aristotle

(05/15/2002; 17:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75750)

Belgian, thanks for your reponses yesterday

msg#: 75606, msg#: 75607, and msg#: 75614

I'm honored by your time spent on my behalf. Thank you!!

I'd like to repeat a brief section of your comments that I hope didn't go unnoticed by all of our friends here.

You said, "A massive euro-rush would be/could be suffocating for Euroland as well as a dollar-crash. FREE GOLD is not an easy business ! ......it should be preferably done with the least of damage and with no outspoken loser! That's fine with me. But I doubt it will turn out that (ideal) way?"

Great point about the euro-rush. These are the problems faced by nations who find that their money is widely used for purposes (international savings/reserves) beyond that of immediate trade/exchange. I also enjoyed the wisdom of these other comments of yours:

"The dis-order/harmony caused by the floats and result in that unstoppable Permanent currency Depreciation, will and must evolve around the stabilizing Gold. Holding and trading bonds in a stable currency AND interest rate environment, will make the *holding* of Physical so much more attractive and "natural", AGAIN ! That's why many major euroland banks have shifted their pure banking business into more profitable insurance services."

To point about shifts in banking operations is a good observation, too. Here over time our banks have shifted from a primary business as deposit takers to become factories of custom-built financial contracts. I'd go so far to say some of our major banks might be more accurately described as Swap Dealers than as traditional banks. A lot of commentators have remarked on the size of this derivative business, but I've noticed in general that they really don't know what to make of it. Some day they probably will see the light, a phase in our singular trending (not cyclical) Monetary System evolution.

What some people fail to grasp is the very *essence* of banking these days, as I've already mentioned, as "factories of custom-built financial contracts." Like any factory, they seek sources of low-cost inputs (funds) with which they may build their outputs (financial contracts, loans/payment schedules, swaps, etc) from which they seek to derive a profit from the price differential and service fees.

Given that above understanding of the bank's function, a person with money who is seeking a safe parking place or to make safe earnings on his cash through a simple bank deposit has to realize one thing: his interest earnings will only reflect the truth of the matter that he is participating within the System as among the low-cost source of inputs (funds.) Given the fact that the Banking System has the net effect of creating new money through this process, and that as viable businesses they will at least ensure that their inputs/outputs pricing structure will compensate them for the additional effects of inflation over time, the question has to be asked, "What educated depositor could ever think that interest being paid for his deposit (as a low-cost input for the banking factory) could ever compensate him over time for the losses in purchasing power he will sustain over time as an aggregate result of mostly inflation, but also the itty-bitty residual risk of any given bank failure?"

Through these comments, Belgian, I hope readers will be more fully able to understand your comments from the second quote I repeated above about the "natural" choice to hold Gold as an attractive alternative to interest bearing instruments of naturally depreciating currencies.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

sourdough

(05/15/2002; 17:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75751)

"A little bit"

May 16, 2002
SAN FRANCISCO
Another Fed official softens inflation stand

Comments indicate Fed willing to tolerate small amount of inflation

A SECOND senior Federal Reserve official indicated on Tuesday that the central bank might be prepared to tolerate a small amount of inflation rather than risk the alternative of declining prices, which have plagued the world's second largest economy, Japan.

The comments from San Francisco Fed president Robert Parry suggest that the Fed might be prepared to tolerate a little more growth in the economy, and an accompanying small increase in prices, before it starts to tap the monetary brakes.

Mr Parry's milder comments on inflation followed a similar change of heart from long-time Fed inflation hawk Alfred Broaddus, who said his view on the risks of inflation has changed so much one Fed policymaker now calls him a 'leading dove' on the issue.

Mr Parry said he thought that Mr Broaddus was not the only one who was going through a similar transition in thinking about inflation, noting that he, too, in the past had been described as a hawk, or extra vigilant, on inflation.

'I always think of myself as pretty resolute when it comes to inflation ... But perhaps a little bit of inflation is a little bit safer than zero,' he said.

And together with comments last week from Fed chief Alan Greenspan that ongoing productivity gains could lift the economy's potential growth rate, the central bank might be prepared to push the envelope on growth before it starts to raise interest rates from four-decade lows.

The Fed slashed the federal funds rate in 11 steps last year as the US economy went into recession, and left rates unchanged last week as it reiterated concerns about the longer-term strength of demand.

Mr Broaddus, once known as a hard-core inflation fighter, recently told The Wall Street Journal that it would be 'ironic to have fought all this time to bring the inflation rate down ... and then lose price stability on the down side'.

William McDonough, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has also lauded the tame inflation environment. With the Consumer Price Index rising only 1.4 per cent in the past year, he said: 'If that's not price stability, what is?'

However, Mr Parry did add a note of caution: 'What we don't want to do is allow inflation to get too high because when that happens, it creates a lot of uncertainty and a lot of volatility in our economy.'

In his speech earlier, Mr Parry said once the current recovery 'really takes hold', interest rates would have to move higher. But for the time being, the Fed had time on its side because there was still plenty of excess capacity in the economy and productivity gains were strong, both pointing to little inflation threat. - Reuters

Mexican

(05/15/2002; 18:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75752)

Unthinkable Events:

Many major financial bubbles happened in world history. The result of every single one was ALWAYS a HUGE collapse in the valuations of equities. The development of what we see now WON'T be the first exception. By the time Mama Bear will leave the worldwide trading floors the Nasdaq will be below 300 and QQQ will be below 6 (NO misprints!). I don't see any reason the Nasdaq cannot go back to its level of Oct. 1987, when it bottomed at 288.49 intraday, if the Nikkei can go all the way back to its level of Dec. 1983. Perhaps we will bottom in the summer of 2004, matching the pattern of the 1920's - 1930's, but before that ALL of the following "unthinkable events" will have to occur:

1. Bill Gates will pay at least 5% annual dividend;
2. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 index will exceed 7%;
3. MSFT and INTC will switch to the NYSE (please notice that the symbols "M" and "I" remain unused, if you want to talk about a conspiracy, this is no coincidence);
4. Tickers will disappear from virtually all public buildings;
5. A few major and many smaller mutual fund companies will no longer exist;

6. To be continued.
You know�it's a long way down the road for Mama Bear to find Baby Bear, but the history leads her all the way down from the Rockies to NY.

Un saludo muy cordial.

MX

Don't forget -> Margaritas forever...

nickel62

(05/15/2002; 18:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75753)

I loved your comments...obviously you are old enough to remember 1981?

When all the things you are alluding to occurred. I remember sitting in a mutual fund company where I worked and wondering if they had set off a neurton bomb or just everyone had been fired or quit and no one told us to shut off the lights. IBM had an almost 7% yield as did Coca Cola and the market had more stocks under $10 a share then I had ever seen in the ten years I had been watching the stock market. I agree this market is not coming back until we get there again. Hasta luego hombre.

Paper Avalanche

(05/15/2002; 19:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75754)

According to the trail - this is what blows it wide open

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/05/16/neuro16.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/05/16/ixport.html

The next 18 months will be the most cataclysmic in our lifetime, IMHO.

Buy gold and silver with wreckless abandon.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(05/15/2002; 19:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75755)

An easier link

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/05/16/neuro16.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/05/16/ixport.htmlPA

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 19:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75756)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmOPEC Production Down

Snippit:

More worrisome on the energy front is next month's meeting of OPEC ministers on June 26th. It is expected that OPEC will not increase production until the end of the year. Saddam Hussein's 30-day oil embargo has already taken 45 million barrels of oil off the world markets. This is forcing countries importing oil to draw down on stockpiles of oil, reducing inventories. Energy agencies see world oil demand rising by 1.3 million barrels a day in the second half of the year. Last year, despite a global recession, world oil demand increased by 100,000 barrels a day. Demand wasn't as great due to mild weather conditions. Weather, more than economic activity, exerts a major influence on demand. This year with another El Ni--o weather pattern we could experience warmer summers and colder winters, increasing the demand for energy.

The problem world economies could face this fall is that feedstocks are drawn down at a time of greater, weather-induced demand for energy. Unless OPEC recognizes this demand in advance and acts now, world markets could experience tight supplies and price spikes in the fourth quarter. A contra seasonal third-quarter stock draw down would be the result, ending in sharply spiking oil and natural gas prices. Higher energy prices would act as an additional tax on weak western economies eliminating all chances for recovery.

Black Blade: Note the NatGas and Oil price graphs at the top of the page (linked article). A warm summer as the effects of El Ni--o is felt will increase energy demand will increase use of energy intensive air-conditioning. Also, as summer approaches we are facing the so-called "driving season". God forbid the economy recovers, because we will have a much greater demand on energy. We have done essentially nothing to prepare for increased energy demand in spite of last year's energy crisis. Construction for new power generating facilities has been shelved and exploration and production for hydrocarbons has fallen off sharply. "Interesting Times"

Golden Bear

(05/15/2002; 19:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75757)

Greenspan the woodworker...

Contemplating Aristotle's Patio Furniture post and the Fed purchasing a Patio furniture business discussion, it struck me as odd that the Fed would even announce such a move.

Wouldn't it just legitimize the fact that the furniture is now considered as Money, leading to a stampede into said furniture (and a bubble in patio building)? A state of affairs that TPTB are trying to suppress at any price, human or otherwise?

Even to bailout one of the grandest furniture makers, it still seems a dangerous ploy which could backfire on them, unless as Cavan Man suggested, it is done after TSHTF. Then, the concern is that no patio funiture will be safe no matter how antique or unique. History repeats itself as they say, but not always exactly - who is to say that a variation in the repetition is not in order. When the forests are all gone and there's no wood left in them there hills, all furniture may be fair game...however it's only a possibility - history is still on our side for now.

By the way, I'd just like to thank once again, the staff at USAGold for the antique piece now out on my Patio. It's stamped "Argentino" and it blends in beautifully with the decor. It arrived yesterday - it takes time to receive goods when you live in the a#!e end of the world as one politician labeled the land of Oz.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 19:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75758)

The End Of The Mighty Dollar

http://www.forbes.com/global/2002/0527/076.html
Snippit:

The U.S. authorities will not--indeed cannot--fight a weaker dollar. U.S. monetary policy is lax, because pricing power remains with people, not companies. China's emergence as a global manufacturing power will keep it that way. That's why the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as much as the market expects. For a long-standing bull of the dollar, this is a tough call. But the factors that made the dollar strong are old and stale. The dollar drivers have been the higher return on investment in the U.S. and international demand for dollars as a result of U.S. corporate globalization. They are set to go into reverse.

First, U.S. equity markets are too expensive. The equities of the globalized Japanese companies are cheaper than those of the U.S., and European stocks are generally a better value.

Second, the U.S. can enjoy either a return to higher profit margins or faster economic growth, but not both. Wage increases must be capped if profitability is to be restored, but that will undermine the U.S. consumer. The prospects for return on investment in the U.S. are bleaker than the market expects. In contrast, return on capital will rise in Europe, as right-wing governments are elected and implement probusiness reform.

Third, the aftermath of Enron and other accounting scandals will mean less M&A activity by U.S. companies. Foreigners, particularly Europeans, bought a lot of U.S. junk at inflated prices that they are writing off. Until the U.S. achieves accounting transparency, foreign corporations won't buy as much. The flow of M&As are already reversing in favor of Europe.

Black Blade: No argument from me. I have said much the same for a long time. We have already seen some disinvestments from Asia already and we will likely see much more. The US equities markets are grossly overvalued by any standard � including the current bogus standards of Pro Forma earnings, operating earnings, etc. The US markets have just become too risky and many foreigners are ready to bail.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 19:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75759)

Merrill Lynch Faces Threat Beyond Spitzer: Investor Lawsuits

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOHerRZBTWVycmls
Snippit:

New York, May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. faces 28 shareholder lawsuits stemming from information New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer obtained in investigating whether the world's largest securities firm misled investors with biased stock research. Investors sued to recover losses after the collapse of inflated shares of Internet Capital Group Inc., Aether Systems Inc., Excite@Home Inc., now a unit of At Home Corp., and IPET Holdings Inc., formerly pets.com Inc., court records show.

Merrill may face damage claims of $4 billion, based on its clients' buying and selling volume of such Internet stocks and on its settlement of a similar analyst suit last July for 80 percent of damages sought, said Brad Hintz, a research analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. That's a fraction of the $118 billion in lost market value suffered by seven Internet stocks Spitzer is examining, he said. ``The New York attorney general has opened a Pandora's box of class action lawsuits and provided plaintiffs' counsel all the information needed to make their cases,'' Hintz said.

Black Blade: The Pied Pipers of Wall Street such as Henry Blodgett and Mary Meeker have exposed their employers to an avalanche of lawsuits and regulatory reviews, not to mention possible investigations leading to fines and sanctions. These charlatans have mislead unsuspecting investors who flitted around the investment world in lemming-like behavior as they succumbed to the siren songs of easy money. Now they may "stick it" to the major investment houses and bakers. Not that they don't deserve it, but these lemmings should shoulder much of the blame for not using common sense and thinking for themselves by doing some simple research.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 19:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75760)

Grains Rocket Higher

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
I don't know if anyone has noticed, but grain prices are rocketing higher over the last few days (see link). Much of this price increase is due to growing concerns over the drought in the Midwest (going on three years). Note that livestock prices have dropped as feed is more costly and critters are taken to the slaughter houses. The overall food prices will be higher but you would not know it if you relied on Government BLS inflation data. Due to "Hedonic Deflators", "seasonality", and various other "smoothing factors" - we are expected to believe that inflation is nearly nonexistent. Besides, food and energy aren't calculated in the "core rate" - as if food and energy prices did not count in the real world. Yesterday the CPI was released as 0.5% and the core rate at 0.3%.

- Black Blade

Mexican

(05/15/2002; 20:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75761)

Behind the Carnage in Palestine:

http://www.normanfinkelstein.com/id122.htmSnippit:

The problem with the Bush administration, we are repeatedly told, is that it has been insufficiently engaged with the Middle East, a diplomatic void Colin Powell's mission is supposed to fill. But who gave the green light for Israel to commit the massacres? Who supplied the F-16s and Apache helicopters to Israel? Who vetoed the Security Council resolutions calling for international monitors to supervise the reduction of violence? And who just blocked the proposal of the United Nation's top human rights official, Mary
Robinson, to merely send a fact-finding team to the Palestinian territories? (IPS, 3 April 2002)

MX: CIA in cooperation with Mossad.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 20:06:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75762)

KPNQwest May Run Out of Cash as Bankers Stop Credit

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOJyoRSoS1BOUXdl
Another company is headed to the scrap heap. KPNQwest is 4% owned by Qwest Communications. As some financial planners are saying � "get out now". The bonds already appear to be worthless. I wonder how many Wall Street analysts still have an "accumulate�, "Market Outperform", "buy" or "strong buy" recommendation on this company?

- Black Blade

Cavan Man

(05/15/2002; 20:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75763)

Black Blade

Hi. In many parts of the midwest the concern is getting the crops in the (soggy) ground. Best....CM

Cavan Man

(05/15/2002; 20:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75764)

paper avalanche

The strengthening Euro makes Bristish exports uncompetitive amidst an economic breather globally. The stronger the Euro the better the case for abandoning Sterling. Once this becomes more certain larger chunks of dough will move into Euro with great alacrity.

Resulting from mercantilism, colonialism, and misdaventures in governance and stewardship such as the Navigation Acts, there is more wealth and influence in that one square mile than anywhere else in the world I believe. There, "they" will, "make it so".

Chris Powell

(05/15/2002; 20:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75765)

The strange books of Barrick Gold, and a warning to Newmont Mining

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1107Latest GATA dispatch....

The strange books of Barrick Gold, and a warning
to Newmont Mining.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1107

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Aristotle

(05/15/2002; 20:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75766)

Response for kludge on problems with recognizing the "Antique Stuff"

Sir kludge, yesterday you raised the caution, "I believe that what you have there is genuine antique patio furniture, but will your neighbor? If it's material and weight isn't listed on each piece in a recognizable form and from a reliable source than it may be "fool's furniture" for all s/he knows."

Great thought, but let's not fall into the common trap of assuming everyone in the world is permanently dumb as a box of rocks. Especially not where their best interests may be served. The learning curve can be very VERY short, my friend!

And as if that alone weren't enough to give us peace of mind, the primary point here is that we would still be doing business under the light of day with our Antique Furniture Dealer who will most definitely recognize what we have, and will likely be doing a brisk trade, indeed, in the event that any remaining trade in bullion.. er, I mean NEW Patio Furniture has been driven into the dimly lit back alleys.

As you'll recall, the whole premise behind choosing the four-generation old stuff was for added protection against the slim chance that the government would put their clamps on the new stuff. In other words, a free market full of dealers would still exist and thrive for the very liquid Antiques that I own, and that was the whole rationale behind the decision to go with the Old Stuff instead of the New Stuff.

True enough, I don't lose any sleep over what I consider to be a very narrow threat of government confiscation, but none the less, it IS on my radar screen. And likely enough, perhaps the reason I don't lose any sleep over the remaining slim chance is because I've done the most available in my power to do for protection by choosing this one very easy and affordable route of 1933 Antique Gold...er, dammit, I mean Patio Furniture.

Let's face it, the government can't and won't comb the streets and canvas homes looking to seize people's New Patio Furniture IF such a time comes that they feel Gold (oh, hell, let's just drop the metaphor at this point) has become a strategically important asset. They will take the easier route of regulating all commercial trade in Bullion, thus driving Bullion alone into the underworld to trade in dimly lit streets. True, if they put the clamps on ALL Gold, then the clearly marked Bullion items would indeed probably fare just a wee bit better among the ignoramuses in the black market.

But with precedent on our side, in the off-change that a "confiscation" were to occur, it's more likely that our Antique Gold would enjoy brisk trade in a free commercial market and would command a handsome premium, while any willful remaining Bullion traders would be forced into the black market where their Bullion would trade at a discount. Like this:

First Guy standing next to the trash cans in the dark alley says, "Pssssst. Hey buddy. Wanna buy a used car stereo? Howze about a watch, eh?" Second Guy slips on a banana peel and curses as he lands on a used hypodermic needle, cursing so loud he awakens a previously unnoticed sleeping wino. Second Guy picks himself back up and says to the First Guy and to the wino both, "Psssst. Do either of youse guys wanna buy some Bullion?"

Let's face it. That's coin-at-a-time penny-ante stuff, and might be satisfactory for some of the bigger-than-life Die-Hard macho guys that you see at some of these Gold discussion tables. More importantly, we've got to remember that there are good numbers of successful gents (not I, for I am no gentleman) who can pack more Gold wealth in a single briefcase than those alley-boys will ever make in a lifetime.

These gents are not going to kiss their wife on the cheek and say, "Honey, I'll be back in a bit. I'm going down to the to rough side of the tracks to restructure our portfolio. I've heard there's a guy there in a boxcar who'll pay top dollar for our Bullion!"

These gents are gents in the first place because like you and me, they're not boneheads. Here's the conversation we might actually hear instead of the one above.

"Honey, did you hear about that Bullion deal gone bad? Some poor schmuck got knifed down by the switchyard. They took his ounce of Bullion and left him for dead."

Wifey-wife says, "Oh darling, that's tragic. I can't believe someone would kill for a measly $3,000. That's what George our coin broker told me the street price for an ounce of Bullion was these days. It's such a shame that people end up living like that. Anyway, George says 'Hi.' I stopped in today like you asked me to on the way home from little Timmy's soccer practice. Here's the $10,000 for that single Sovereign out of your stock of 12,000 ((Remember my post a week ago about buying 100 kilos of Gold?)) you wanted me to sell. We're going to have such a wonderful week in Hawaii!"

Sickening, isn't it? And possible in every regard.

It seems to me that someone who is buying Gold today, that is, buying it *ahead* of the crowd, is the type of person who is independently intelligent and leaves as little as possible to chance. Like me, I'll bet they're going for the Antique Patio Furniture from Switzerland or its neighbors.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

mikal

(05/15/2002; 20:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75767)

@Mexican- You're on a roll

Nice to hear from you. The US oil and blood soaked families MUST block those UN fact-finding teams and UN monitors. They depend on a poison soup for survival. Comprising a blend of: Socialism Soviet Union style, complete with media censorship, lies, and brainwashing, laced with Nazi-era security apparatus, tactics, and treachery, all pleasantly seasoned with Roman empire, debauchery, barbarism, and political debility.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 21:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75768)

UBS Warburg sees gold price rallying further

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=963204
Snippit:

Reductions in hedge books, or forward selling, has rallied the gold market this year as leading mine producers in effect became buyers of the metal to buy out previous forward sales. Gold miners such as Anglo Gold ANGJ.J have decided to cut back their hedge books to allow themselves to benefit from rising spot prices rather than be restricted to prices fixed in forward markets.

Reade said that cuts in forward sales by mining firms would reach an aggregate of 500 tonnes this year. Japanese investment demand was also fanning gold higher, backed by widespread purchases in North America and Europe, UBS Warburg said. "Over the past decade, investment demand has been responsible for a decreasingly important component of the gold market. However investment demand has returned as a factor," Reade said. "Based on our own proprietary sales information, sales of investment gold into Europe and North America have exceeded the flows into Japan," Reade said.

Black Blade: "The Day of the Hedger" is over. Newmont got caught with a bucket of hedges from their recent acquisition of Normandy. They had decided to retire the book slowly and that could bite them. Barrick is close to under water as their book accounts for the price received as well as the future gains from investment. A dangerous game. For Place Dome and AngloGold it just may be too late. Their hedge books are so monstrous that they may be caught flat-footed in a rising Gold market. The word is that the Ashanti hedge book is hurting again as the POG has bounded higher in recent weeks. Cambior was hurt the last time around by a rising POG. Now that Cambior is just a mere shell of the company they once were after selling off assets, they too are still feeling the pain of a wrecked hedge book. Any Gold miner caught "short" this time may be a relic to be shoved to the scrap heap.

Mexican

(05/15/2002; 21:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75769)

@Mikal, All - The so-called poison soup:

http://www.counterpunch.org/avneryoil.html

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 21:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75770)

Argentina, Chile said to have big gold potential

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=966574
Snippit:

LIMA, Peru, May 15 (Reuters) - Argentina and Chile have the potential to become major regional gold producers and Argentina alone could quadruple gold exports in four years, senior mining officials told an international conference Wednesday. "The extreme south of Latin America is perhaps the area with the biggest potential," Miguel Cardozo, an adviser to Peru's Energy and Mines Ministry, told a meeting of top gold industry executives and officials from 26 countries in Lima.

Black Blade: I hope they don't plan on paying the work force in crumbling Argentine pesos. Of course Gold and Silver coin in Argentina would go a long way in Argentina these days.

Mexican

(05/15/2002; 21:29:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75771)

The so-called poison soup (second attempt)

http://www.counterpunch.org/avneryoil.htmlThat happened already to somebody else today. I'm sorry for any kind of copy and paste activities.

Un saludo muy cordial.

MX

Don't forget -> Margaritas forever...(perhaps too many tonight).

YGM

(05/15/2002; 21:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75772)

The Banker, The Preacher & The Lawyer.....

An old preacher was dying. He sent a message for his banker and his lawyer, both church members, to come to his home.
When they arrived, they were ushered up to his bedroom. As they entered the room, the preacher held out his hands and motioned for them to sit on each side of the bed. The preacher grasped their hands, sighed contentedly, smiled, and stared at the ceiling. For a time, no one said anything.
Both the banker and lawyer were touched and flattered that the preacher would ask them to be with him during his final moments. They were also puzzled; the preacher had never given them any indication that he particularly liked either of them. They both remembered his many long, uncomfortable sermons about greed, covetousness, and avaricious behaviour
that made them squirm in their seats. Finally, the banker said, "Preacher, why did you ask us to come?"
The old preacher mustered up his strength and then said weakly, "Jesus died between two thieves, and that's how I want to go."

YGM

(05/15/2002; 22:19:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75773)

My Apologies for the repost from Bill's Cafe this AM:

It had to be lifted as it should be! I mistakenly thought it was also going to be at Gata egroups and jumped the gun.
This is a paid news letter service and a darn good one, so to those of you who pay for it and may have been ticked off, I'm sorry....Bill has his email from me :>(

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 22:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75774)

Metals fraud ring stun NJ suburban neighbors

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020515/crime_metals_newjersey_1.html
Snippit:

PISCATAWAY, N.J., May 15 (Reuters) - Neighbors of two small metal trading firms were stunned to learn on Wednesday that their suburban corporate park was home to a huge bank fraud exposed by federal prosecutors a day earlier. The sign on the facade of the locked offices read Allied Deals Inc. and Hampton Lane Inc., two of the three metals trading companies alleged to have been part of an elaborate international con that cost a group of top-tier commercial banks $600 million to $1 billion.

"Pretty shocking," said an employee of PRG Systems, a software company with offices in the building, right next to a massage therapy school. Lights were on inside the offices Wednesday afternoon and through the window, empty boxes could be seen scattered in the front of a long carpeted hallway. But no one was seen and nobody answered the intercom or knocks at any of the three company entrances. The parking lot was empty, where there were usually at least 40 or 50 cars, sources said. Surrounded by other corporate parks and shopping malls, the complex may have been an ideal place to guarantee the four men anonymity to run their ring.

Black Blade: Someday there will be a movie about this.

Black Blade

(05/15/2002; 22:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75775)

Newmont's dire hedging prediction comes true

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BBA0080A180?OpenDocument
Snippit:

PRINCETON, New Jersey -- The gold business may be short on profits, but not irony. After crusading against gold hedging during the unruly takeover war for Australia's Normandy, Newmont [NEM] now sits with a massive loss on its acquired hedge book � exactly what it warned would happen to rivals.

There are not too many people who expected Newmont to report a hedging loss - $411 million as at the end of March and equal to nearly all Newmont's cash. The figure is recorded on the income statement, but is unrealised so does not affect cash earnings.

The more heavily hedged AngloGold had an unrealised hedging loss of $71 million at the end of the first quarter.

Black Blade: As I had predicted quite some time ago, the absurd practice of shorting ones product has come back to haunt the hedge fund miners. Barrick too suffered as profits cratered on a losing strategy. Soon only the profitable non-hedgers will be the only producers left.

YGM

(05/15/2002; 22:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75776)

Paper Avalanche (5/15/02; 19:05:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 75754)

Euro...I believe....and if I had any extra Fed Paper at these levels to spare (after Physical PM purchases) I'd have a Euro account and it would be in Switzerland....Who knows what the future holds for NA Banks if the Dollar falls from almighty grace. Some of the biggest names are and have been borderline solvent for years....Derivatives...Bank Runs etc all spell "DEFAULT" Love that heavy yellow bar feeling in one's hand!

DOWNUNDER

(05/15/2002; 23:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75777)

RE J.P.MORGAN - - J.P.Morgan's Tech Analyst Tells Customers To SELL Gold !

Black Blade (5/15/02; 04:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 75717)
J.P. Morgan Technical Analyst Tells Customers To Sell Gold
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4252963059600130112
Snippit:
New York, May 14 (OsterDowJones) - J.P. Morgan Chase is recommending that some of its customers "close all longs in gold," in a technical strategist research note.

Black Blade: It appears that ol� JP Morgan Chase has it's tit caught in a wringer and needs a helping hand from clients as the Gold derivatives blow up.
-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

These bastards really do talk from both sides of their mouth --- not a pretty sight! Yesterday my BROKER sent me a pdf file from J.P.Morgan-USA Equity Research N.Y. & also dated May 14th.It was headed "Gold Equities Take Healthy Breather" - - - SNIP

* Gold fundamentals remain VERY good.Supply cutbacks,
currency uncertainty,political risk & historically high
valuation levels for the S&P & DOW make Gold a useful
"retreat". !!

* -we expect "buy the dips" philosophy to send gold higher.

* As detailed in our May 1 note,on a technical basis,the
gold market has had an extremely good run & long term
investors have become nervous- - -HOWEVER we believe the
investment picture remains very good.We think gold also
has more upside from current price levels since we only
know of a handful of new projects that are economic AT
CURRENT gold price levels. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

* Another key metric is that the Gold sector still offers
only a limited pool of investments. Total cap is only
around $70B,with larger capstocks only about $50B.Of note
approx half of this cap has made itself "Gold friendly"
with forward sales. !!!!!!!!

----- and a reason why investors with a sense of history shouldn't stray too far from the sector.Taking a medium term
view,we feel that the risk in the Gold sector is primarily to the UP side.
-----------------------------------------------------

The quicker this lot get their heads handed to them on a plate --the better.Making bucks from both ends--geeesss!

DOWNUNDER

(05/15/2002; 23:30:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75778)

RE J.P.MORGAN - - AMMENDMENT TO PREVIOUS POST

Of note approx half of this cap has made itself "Gold friendly" with forward sales. !!!!!!!!
- - - - - - - - -- - - -
Please note-above should have read --"GOLD BULL-UNFRIENDLY"
with forward sales.

That makes more sense!

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 02:03:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75779)

The Barbarous Relic Files - Gold theft is big business

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.jsp?a=59&o=3287
Snippit:

Thieves pillage 35 tons of pure gold, at a value of nearly R2-billion from South African mines, every year - and arrest rates are steadily declining. The scale of the theft was highlighted this week when police seized more than half a ton of gold dust during a raid on a mineworkers' hostel in Thabong, Welkom, in the Free State. Four men were arrested. This was the seventh raid on 'G' hostel this year. A similar amount of gold dust has been recovered by police on each occasion.

Gastrow's report highlights the fact that corruption within the South African Police Service is aggravating the crisis, and finds police departments are fighting a losing battle against police crime. Some police officers were found to be heavily involved in crime syndicates and there were instances of them 'eliminating' opposition members.

Black Blade: And there are those who have you believe that Gold is just a "barbarous relic".

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 02:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75780)

The Barbarous Relic Files - Bulk of gold jewellery lacks purity

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/020515/26/1o4dm.html
Snippit:

The bulk of the gold jewellery sold in major cities is sub-standard. Consumers are thus over-charged. This has been revealed by a recent survey conducted by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Jaipur and Ahmedabad. Nearly 88 per cent of the jewellery was found to be of lower quality than claimed by jewellers. The level of adulteration has been found to be 12.56 per cent.

According to the BIS, legal action has been initiated against the errant jewellers. Complaints have been filed before the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Commission, pointing out that these jewellers were indulging in unfair trade practices and selling jewellery that fell short of the purity level.

Black Blade: Gold is such a "barbarous relic" that jewelers use less Gold in their Gold jewelry. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 02:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75781)

Japan to Retaliate on U.S. Steel Tariffs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020516/trade_steel_japan_usa_1.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan said it will notify the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday of plans to retaliate against U.S. steel tariffs after Washington rebuked Tokyo's last-minute plea for compensation or an annulment of the hefty duties.

Black Blade: Maybe the Japanese will weaken the Yen again to be more competitive. The USD will have to be weakened to compete with imports and to help US exports.

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 02:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75782)

Gold Fields' independence matters more than size

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020515203043357C430949&set_id=60
Snippit:

Toronto - Gold Fields, the world's fourth-biggest gold producer, planned to remain an independent company and was not looking for a buyer, chief executive Chris Thompson said. The Miningweb.com website reported last week that Barrick Gold and AngloGold planned to make a joint offer for the company.

Gold Fields, which expected to produce 3.8 million ounces of gold this year, did not have to get bigger to compete with companies like Newmont, which had forecast production at 7.5 million ounces, or Barrick, which planned to produce 5.8 million ounces, Thompson said. "Bigger isn't necessarily better," he said.

Black Blade: If the POG Goldfields, Harmony and Goldcorp will likely buy Barrick, Placer Dome and AngloGold assets for pennies on the dollar after their hedge books blow up.

(05/16/2002; 03:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75783)

@ Black Blade

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BBA0080A180?OpenDocumentHi there.
Ref, Dire prediction comes true

Have you seen this article in the MiningWeb on Newmont hedging inherited from Normandy? What do you think?
OZ

Spartacus

(05/16/2002; 03:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75784)

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=295573
Tony Blair reignited the debate on the euro last night by saying it would be "crazy" and a "betrayal" of Britain's interests to remain outside the single currency, and he even distanced himself from George Bush over Iraq and the Israeli conflict as he insisted that he was not the "poodle" of the American President.

Something is definitely going on here...

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 03:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75785)

Newmont President Says Gold In Early Stages Of Bull Market

Newmont President Says Gold In Early Stages Of Bull Market

DENVER -(Dow Jones)- Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) President Pierre Lassonde said Wednesday that supply-and-demand forces will cause the price of gold to keep rising for many years.

Previewing a presentation he will make at a Merrill Lynch conference in Boston Thursday, Lassonde said the recent rise in gold prices to above $300 an ounce is just the beginning of a long-term rise.

"I think we're in the early stages of a bull market that will last many years. I don't think this is a flash in the pan whatsoever," Lassonde said....

Black Blade: I agree. The fundamentals suggest that Gold should rise much higher. Like the situation in domestic natural gas, exploration activity for Gold has come to a screeching halt in 1997. No new exploration has been underway and since it takes a few years to explore for Gold, then a minimum of about 5 years (usually longer) to start mining. We will definitely see Gold continue to rise as deposits are depleted and mines are then closed. We no replacement of reserves we will see a sustained period of rising Gold prices. The current price of Gold has yet to respond to a deteriorating US economy.

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 04:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75786)

Re: OZ � Newmont Hedges

I saw the article. Yes I suspected that they were is trouble once they bought Normandy. Actually I was surprised that they pursued Normandy as a take over target. However, I also was under the impression that they had plans to quickly unwind the hedge book. Apparently they felt that they could deal with it by delivering into the book as delivery dates came due � I thought that was a bad call. Now they risk suffering the same fate that will eventually bankrupt Barrick, AngloGold and Placer Dome if the POG continues to rise.

I never invested in any of these companies, as my criterion has always been that a company must be unhedged, profitable, and have a logical game plan. None of the companies above fits the bill. As a result I only have shares of Harmony, Gold Fields, and Goldcorp. Now as the markets get a bit funky I would be concentrating a bit more on physical Gold. Definitely stay away from the hedgers.

I know many good people who work for Newmont, and most of them refer to the company as "Screwmont". Over the years the corporate management has been attempting to "Yuppify" the company and make it a wimpy "politically correct" entity � quite a change from my work hard � play hard "jack-leg" mining days. This has resulted in many of the experienced miners having hard feelings for management.

I remember when Newmont bought out Santa Fe Pacific Gold. There were promises made that if the staff stayed on instead of taking the buyout they would be part of the "Newmont Family". Most took the buyout, however, the many of the remainder were fired after the merger and no buyout (severance). Typical. I never could invest in any N. American company that treats their employees that way � they would have no qualms about treating their shareholders just as badly.

That said, most analysts were caught by surprise when Newmont came out with their loss announcement. Earnings were expected to be 12 cents a share and instead a loss of 4 cents was recorded. Now realization is setting in that Newmont has just turned into yet another hedger. That's OK because as investors flee the hedgers, they will turn to non-hedgers and physical Gold.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 04:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75787)

USD Gains, PMs Flat, Petroleum Falls

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD is gaining against the toilet currencies while Gold is comatose. Oil and NatGas have fallen flat since yesterday's big decline on news that Venezuelan Presidente Hugo Chavez was shot - turned out to be a wild false rumor. However, the damage was done and petroleum remains much lower though the fact that inventories are lower remains an issue with more crude to be added to the SPR as well as refinery stockpiles.

Meanwhile stock market indices are so high that at these levels we will see the indices skyrocket at the open. Note that the markets have moved very high on extremely low volume which suggests that investors are sitting this one out. Perhaps the investment houses are playing games trying to stimulate the markets as John Pierpont Morgan did to stop the financial panic of 1907. This time it could be under direction of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT). Itis shaping up to be a very "interesting" and dangerous stock market these days.

- Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 04:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75788)

Newmont hedges

Many thanks for the reply.
The last week has been negative regarding Nem and all that has been said regarding profits and hedging. I think they did not do their proper DD on the hedge books of NDY and now cannot that easily get out. I am a shareholder being a former NDY shareholder and I bought some more on the market.
I guess I should be very careful and maybe gradually ease my Newmont holdings. Once again many thanks. See ya
OZ

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 05:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75789)

Maria's Big Mouth

http://www.nypost.com/business/48117.htm
Snippit:

Wall Street insiders may have capitalized on the stock picks of CNBC's Maria "Money Honey" Bartiromo before the public even heard them on the air, says a new study. Stocks mentioned by the popular TV personality usually made big swings following her comments - but the real trading in the shares started at least 10 minutes before she uttered the names on the air, says the study by two professors. And trading in the shares jumped to a hectic pace in the five minutes just before Bartiromo's picks. The study suggested that traders with non-public information on the shares were setting up positions so they were ready to trade when the picks were finally aired.

When Bartiromo's picks were disclosed, traders appeared to dump their shares to suckers eager to buy into the news of the picks - reaping instant profits of typically 61 basis points, the study's co-authors said. The two finance professors at Emory University's business school who did the study - Dr. Jeffrey Busse and Dr. Clifton Green - said they suspected insider trading, but doubted Bartiromo was knowingly involved.

Black Blade: I have two words � "pump" and "dump". James Cramer is under investigation for supposedly playing this game by feeding names to CNBC anchors (particularly Maria Bartiromo) and they buy those shares. Then sell into the rallies following exposure on CNBC. This is the classic Boiler Room "Pump and Dump".

Graefin

(05/16/2002; 05:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75790)

@BB...Money Honey's Big Mouth...

I knew there was a reason I din't like her. Two words for her..."Media Troll!"
Regards...
- Gr�fin

Waverider

(05/16/2002; 05:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75791)

Black Blade

Thank you for the article on the worlds giant oilfields - there's some good information there re: daily production rates and the problems inherent in calculating reserve estimates. I was also reading another article (I think you posted) by CJ Campbell Feb. 2002 where he states, "...It became possible to identify and map the generating belts. They are few and far between because prolific oil was formed only under very rare geological circumstances. In fact, most of it comes from no more than three or four epochs of intense global warming." We seem to be entering another period of global warming but how does one determine if it's due to factors other than greenhouse gases i.e. another rare geological circumstance (whatever the cause of that would be). Any articles I found on global warming focused exclusively on greenhouse gases. It's strange that weather has such a large influence on the economy but it's weather (as well as many other things) that drives energy consumption.

BTW, interesting articles on Newmont - I switched months ago to GG and GFI.

Thanks again for the information and for sharing your expertise. Cheers!

Waverider

Waverider

(05/16/2002; 05:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75792)

Graefin

I understand that it was your birthday yesterday - A Happy Birthday to you! May you be blessed with good health, a light heart, but pockets heavy with Gold. Cheers!
Waverider

Graefin

(05/16/2002; 05:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75793)

Waverider...Birthday Girl...

WaveRider...Danke, Danke, Danke! But TODAY is my birthday...we can thank that 8-hour time difference between Denver and Germany for that! The ol' gray mare turns 40 today! (my aching bones!) hehehehehe! Thanks!
- Gr�fin

Graefin

(05/16/2002; 07:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75794)

More Bone Pile stats...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20020516/bs_nm/economy_jobless_dc_1Jobless rate up... and the dow still rallies. Give me a break!
- Gr�fin

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 07:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75795)

Re: Waverider

Thanks, I am sure that you will have a lot of your questions answered as you read "Hubbert's Peak" and "The Prize".

As far as the Global Warming issue, I have had many discussions � usually with diehard environmentalist zealots. Global Warming/Cooling is nothing new. The Earth has experienced many episodes of climate change. So-called "greenhouse gases" are not specific to man's influence. Throughout geologic history green house gases have been expelled into the atmosphere from volcanic activity, meteor impacts, evaporation, transpiration, and ablation for example.

Global Climate change has likely resulted from a number of natural phenomena such as episodic coronal mass ejections, orbital variations (i.e. Milankovitch Cycle), etc. Some known periods of Global Climate change apparently occurred when no significant changes in the amount green house gases were detected (as determined from glacial ice cores).

There are tradeoffs with Global Warming/Cooling, however, neither is necessarily bad but just different. Sure some areas may suffer while other areas benefit. The question is will be benefits outweight the losses? In the early 1970's the worry was Global Cooling. In a world that is now concerned with Global Warming we hear of concerns about such things as the spread of malaria. If the climate was cooling then the benefit would be less malaria. If the climate were warming then the benefit would be longer growing seasons. Obviously warming would likely result in more heat deaths but what is not mentioned is the fewer cold deaths.

The increase in hydrocarbon producing material (plants) was greater during periods of Global Warming. Much of the Earth was a tropical to subtropical paradise with a plant bloom. The increased carbon (from CO2) had to go somewhere, so it went into increase plant growth. This is consistent with "Carbon Sink" hypothesis. In areas further north in the Eocene for example, I did a research study some years ago in western Montana. In the Eocene the region was a tropical forest. From the Miocene to today, even accounting for tectonic plate movement since, the area is a temperate drier climate and not as vegetated.

The "Environmentalist Religion" will not hear of this at it is blasphemy. Actually I think that many of these zealots are kooks. Nevertheless, I also do believe that it is in our best interest to clean up the environment within reason. The wealthier a society becomes, the cleaner it becomes as it can afford to devote funds to the effort. Today people live longer healthier lives. Worldwide there are fewer people starving as a percentage and more people have access to clean water (again as a percentage). There are fewer deaths from disease as well when accounting for population growth and an aging population. Actually things are getting better � including the environment. Man has always done amazingly well adapting to his environment and making great progress to improving his environment.

Anyway, this is a simplistic version as the subject can take up volumes. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 07:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75796)

Jobless Claims Rise

Jobless claims are up 2,000. However, the number of first time claims of 418,000 is still well above recessionary levels.

In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Golden Bear

(05/16/2002; 07:09:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75797)

Inflating like a hot air balloon....

http://www.cdi.org/msc/clock.htmlPut some golden ballast in your pockets, before the storm winds blow...

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 07:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75798)

Power Giants Have Trouble Raising Cash for Plants

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=4517.topic
Snippit:

Accused of accounting chicanery and illegally inflating power prices, companies that generate much of the nation's electricity have lost the confidence of investors. For the moment, they are finding it nearly impossible to raise money for new plants, raising the risk of future power shortages, industry experts say.

The stock prices and credit ratings of independent power producers, the companies that are building most new power plants nationwide, have plunged since the collapse of Enron. The crisis has worsened in the last week, amid new disclosures about aggressive business and accounting practices in the sector.

In the short run, the effect on the nation's power supply will be limited. Scores of new plants have been built since 1999, and supply exceeds electricity demand by a comfortable margin nationally.

But if the companies cannot regain the trust of Wall Street and Washington, plant construction may stall for years, leaving some regions short of power later this decade, experts say.

Black Blade: Actually they should be more concerned about having enough feedstock NatGas for these new power plants. Not only that most planned power plant construction has been shelved. We need a minimum of 300 new power plants in the next three years and 1,300 within eight years. If the economy recovers we are in deep doo doo.

Pippin

(05/16/2002; 07:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75799)

Cycles and Depression

I am a frequent reader of Elliott Waves-related material, in particular Bob Prechter's, and I cannot help being impressed with his forecasting of what seems to be in front of us.
For a number of years, he has increasingly warned his readers that we may be in front of a depression which may be worse than 1929's. I even just read that the only case which may "compete" with the magnitude of our next major correction may go back to the years 172x (based on his count, we are at the end of a wave V of a cycle, which is at the end of a wave (V) of a supercycle, which is at the end of a wave [III] of a grand supercycle).
I know he has been wrong sometimes, but he was right quite often, and his arguments are convincing - at least for a little Hobbit.
I also noticed that his arguments sounded like the ones shared in this Forum - although he clearly fears more a deflation than high inflation.
I'm no real expert. Does anybody in this Forum share his view? Long-term speaking, he also seems to be quite bullish on gold btw.

Waverider

(05/16/2002; 07:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75800)

Japan shareholder body to resume buying from banks

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?section=news≠ws_id=reu-t123216&feed=reu&date=20020516&cat=INDUSTRYSnippit:
"Japan's state-backed stock-buying body, set up in February to help banks unload massive stockholdings, said on Thursday it will start buying shares from them again from May 17 to November 1. The Banks' Shareholdings Purchase Corp said it bought 130.1 billion yen ($1.02 billion) worth of shares from banks in an initial purchasing period from February 15 to April 26.

It said it decided on a second round of stock-purchasing because of high demand from financial institutions to reduce their holdings and views that it would take a while yet for there to be a fundamental recovery in the stock market. The setting up of the stock-buying body was widely seen by analysts as aimed at stemming a sharp slide in the Japanese stock market ahead of crucial book-closings on March 31.

But analysts have been sceptical about the effectiveness of the stock-buying body given the huge amount of shares banks must get rid of to bring them to an amount smaller than their capital by March 2004. The target is aimed at containing risky assets at a manageable level. At the end of September, Japan's top four banks held about 20 trillion yen in shareholdings.

A group of 128 financial institutions contributed a total of 10.7 billion yen to capitalise the body, which can borrow up to two trillion yen from banks to finance stock purchases.

Waverider: The Japanese BS Purchase Corp is at it again...they have to be crying desperation and possibly panic?

~Black Blade - thank you kind Sir. As usual, every question answered creates five more questions...just confused at a higher level and about more important things - the story of my life! :)

goldquest

(05/16/2002; 07:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75801)

The War On Cash

http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/cashing_out.htmGold and Silver will really put them in a panic!

CoBra(too)

(05/16/2002; 08:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75802)

Was it only a scant 3 Years ago?

... When the EU 15 had 11 leftist Socialist governments?
This surely has changed with the advent of the demise of Austria's great coalition (social democrats with conservatives) - and only yesterday Holland - No, the Netherlands were added after France, Italy, Spain and some minor ones.
- Sorry - there are no minor ones -Sir,Belgian - at least not in M. Michel's newest vocabulary - hear he's not doing so well health-wise either, no wonder as the latest polls in Germany gives the Red/Green Coalition in Germany 33/7%, while the Union (CDU/CSU) is reaping 43% and the liberal FDP 7% - a comfortable lead ... The EU citizens had it with the oversized welfare state and sterile politics of don't upset the apple-cart...
Recently listened to an interview with old social democrat Hermann Bahr - one of the few good old real statesmen and philosophers, who thinks along the lines as I've stated before - the EU needs a constitution and the convent led by Giscard D'estaing is a real and ambitious undertaking towards these ends. Personally, I would say - forget any extension of the EU - until such a time a common constitution would bind not 15, but 28 or even 35 countries of Europe together. Closer than any ties the US still may have - even if their empire status in armory - sorry defense - will be unchallenged - for a long time. Though:
a) Who needs this kind of super power potential?
b) To what ends?
c) The town bully seems always to be the target of
aggression (terroris'm)?
and finally ...
d.)Who's going to pay for the keep up of the Empire -
after all the full credit and faith in the FRN's
essentially - unbacked by anything are running at a
total debt of almost 30 Trillion $'s - 3 times the
US GDP and once the global GDP. According to K.
Richeb�cher - only its interest payments now would afford
2 TRILLION $ per year - and that's about the pace of the
anuual Creation of new FRN's!

Sorry for rambling, though it seems to me the time frames between " The Rise and Fall" of any Empire has clearly accelerated with the advent of the global village ...

We may still have a brief window of opportunity - more than ever now - to secure your own destiny by acquiring heavy weight and real value for your FRN's - as our friend Aristotle says - Let's use it and I'm very happy that Ari is back - Thank you cb2

PS: Gr�fin - many happy returns and being 50% older I'd also like to say - Alles Gute f�r die n�chsten 40 Jahre -

Leigh

(05/16/2002; 08:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75803)

goldquest

Loved the link you just provided! What a difference "the light of truth" (in the form of the author's helpful comments) can make!!

Cavan Man

(05/16/2002; 08:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75804)

@CB (too)

Dear friend,

Your constitution I believe you will have though not without pains of various sorts. Recall the discussions here in the late 18th century. Regarding your "d)": that is why you have your EURO (and mine). Mr. Sinclair's quantitative reflection on gold derivatives which have been used for $$$ hedging and misused by others are another reason. When, not if the whole mess comes undone, AU and EURO will be havens. XXXXX's to you....CM

Chris Powell

(05/16/2002; 08:31:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75805)

NY Post's John Crudele picks up on the gold price suppression story

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1109New York Post's John Crudele picks up on
the gold price suppression story as it involves
J.P. Morgan Chase:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1109

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Pippin

(05/16/2002; 08:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75806)

Graefin - Happy birthday...

...from Switzerland. Best wishes for the future.

Mr Gresham

(05/16/2002; 08:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75807)

Black Blade

"Nevertheless, I also do believe that it is in our best interest to clean up the environment within reason."

Since I'll be reading (but not posting) at the library today, I just thought I'd reaffirm these words of wisdom now.

You could parse every word in BB's sentence and come up with controversy and factions, but I guess the nub of the question for me is partly the opposing question: Do you want to pollute the environment (or use up resources) to sustain the consumption/production statistics of a Bubble Economy, few of whose products and services you believe are worthwhile anyway? Getting the most REAL quality of life (I know, I know -- by whose measurement?) out of every molecule used should be the goal.

In economics, they call the side effects the market doesn't clean up "externalities". They get pushed out, and passed on, and paid for by the generations to come. For example, oil is a highly-effective tool for getting us from place to place, a much better relative use than for heating buildings. Two generations hence, they'll have it for neither use, or at terrible prices, and with no choices on environmental protection. And yet the market today lets us take this away from them.

I believe in "Markets, Plus." "Plus what?" is the question. Politics today doesn't do a very good job of adding that "Plus". But we gotta do it, somehow. Soon.

Just my little rant for today; gotta run...

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 10:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75808)

Federal Debt

http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/b12fd.pdfBeen doing a little research on our debt. Wasn't quite finished, but I think what I surmise may be revelant to a couple posts I've seen next door and Goldquest's link to the war on cash.

The above link breaks down the ownership of the public debt (treasury securities). Here's a summarry of my concern.

1991 Total debt: 3,465.2 billion

Privately Held: 2,360.6 billion

Federal Reserve and
Government Accounts 1,104.6 billion
---------------------------------------
2001 Total debt: 5,943.4 billion up 2,478.2 billion

Privately held: 2,819.5 billion up 458.9 billion

Federal Reserve and
Government Accounts 3,123.9 billion up 2,019.3 billion

Now, the privately held includes banks, funds, pensions, insurance companies, etc. and foreign holders. Foreign holders have increased about 700 billion in 10 years to about 1,216 billion. The rest of the privately held therefore have reduced about 250 billion.

Now a 700 billion increase in investment by foreigners is nothing to sneeze at and if reduced creates a very large problem, but the 2,019.3 increase by the FED and Government accounts really concerns me. I always thought that the FED held the bulk of our debt and issued our money - currency and digital. Now I'm not so sure, because on table OFS-1 it lists Public issues held by the FED from 1997 thru 2001 and it goes from about 436 billion to about 559 billion. the rest 2,468 billion (all most all are nonmarketable securities - book entries???) and held by US Government Accounts.

Now, it appears to me that the FED only permanently holds what may be the securities to back our hard currency. (Repo's are not included in the FED figure - those are swapped back and forth). So, what government entity(s) are holding nearly 2,500 billion of our debt in nonmarketable securities. I can think of only one, and that's OUR social security trust fund.

Foreigners have supported an increase of 700 billion, and what I think our retirement funds another increase of 2,000+
billion DURING THE GREATEST BOOM IN MODERN HISTORY. Now, with depression in the wings, the Euro block, etc., where is the money going to come from? The FED? I'm not so sure.

The rumors that the treasury is going to take over the money creation monopoly - if I'm thinking right bet on it. The FED is going to run from this as quick as possible. It doesn't appear they've stepped to the plate for anything more than our hard currency, and as foreigners cut back, other private investors already have, who in their right mind would take enough of our debt to support the deficit? For the last 10 years the government has been the lender of last resort to it's self. (Prosecute Enron???

I now may understand "the war on cash" posts seen here and next door this morning. Also next door someone picked up a rumor that there is a major banking change in the works. The piggy bank of retirement funds is probably gone (for good) and going after the cash economy is a last ditch effort that won't provide near enough money quick enough. Raise the debt ceiling? Won't do too much good if there's no money to borrow.

WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING TO COME FROM??? We've pilfered all we can and issueing debt for more doesn't appear doable, something has got to change real quick. More thought is needed, and I'm right at the limit of my ability to comprehend this mess. Thoughts anyone??

Pizz

Voyager

(05/16/2002; 10:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75809)

Waverider

I intend to go to the conference in Vancouver. I can't find the web address to register online. I saw it on Bill Murphy's Midas Report. Do you know it?

Thank You

Knallgold

(05/16/2002; 10:57:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75810)

Conservatism

"I also do believe that it is in our best interest to clean up the environment within reason." BB

BB is right.It has ever been the credo of conserve-atives to spare,not wasting resources and clean ones own crap.Simply a responsible life.

The absence of a natural (Gold)limit on spending power allowed many excesses.

@all: funny James Sinclair mentions 354$/oz. as the Goldderivative failure point.Where did I read this number in this context first???

Cavan Man

(05/16/2002; 11:14:27 MDT - Msg ID: 75811)

KnallGold

FOA

Cavan Man

(05/16/2002; 11:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75812)

?????

Big Brother Is Watching, Listening
SAN FRANCISCO, May 15 2002

It is America's new reality: security and surveillance. From intense scrutiny at airports to expanded government authority to track Internet use, federal agents now watch American citizens more closely than ever, reports CBS News Correspondent John Blackstone.

Such scrutiny seemed over the line to retired phone company worker Barry Reingold, after the FBI got interested in remarks Reingold made at his health club. After loudly criticizing the war in Afghanistan, Reingold had some unexpected visitors a few days later.

"I said, you know, 'Who's there?' And they said, 'It's the FBI,'" said Reingold, 60.

Reingold says the two agents wanted to know more about his locker room outburst.

"Someone's reported to us that you've been talking about what happened on 9/11 and terrorism and oil and Afghanistan," Reingold said the agents told him.

The FBI insists agents do not interview people because of their political views. But since 9/11, the agency says it needs to cast a wider net than ever in its search for information.

That's helped create fears the FBI could slip back to the days of J. Edgar Hoover, when the agency went outside the law to watch Americans whose politics Hoover disagreed with.

The current FBI director Robert Mueller says investigations today are lawful � and thorough.

"If we get a threat," Mueller said, "We will do everything we can to interview anybody who may have some information about that threat."

When a locker room bull session can bring questions from the FBI, it's clear agents are casting a wide net indeed.

Kate Rafael, a California peace activist, often takes part in anti-war demonstrations. But she was stunned when an FBI agent called her, seeking information about Muslim men.

"If it's your job to hunt Islamic fundamentalist terrorists," said Rafael, "Then it's your job to know that they don't hang out with Jewish lesbians in San Francisco."

Josh Thayer got a surprise, too.

"I'm about to go to a meeting, very stressful day, all of a sudden, the FBI calls."

The agent wanted to know about the computer systems at Independent Media, a leftist Web site where Josh occasionally works as a volunteer technician.

Thayer said he has no idea how the FBI got his name.

"I really don't. That is, to me, that's the scariest part. You are being watched, you know, like what you do isn't anonymous."

From left to right, government surveillance since Sept. 11 is raising privacy fears.

U.S. Rep. Bob Barr, a conservative Republican from Georgia, has joined liberal Democrats to back new privacy legislation.

"That sphere of what's left of privacy gets smaller and smaller and smaller," said Barr. "Each incremental taking away of that privacy by the government becomes much more important."

Cavan Man

(05/16/2002; 11:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75813)

last post

Big Brother is Watching courtesy of CBS News.com.

Old Yeller

(05/16/2002; 11:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75814)

Voyager,investment show details

http://www.cambridgeconferences.com/vancouver/june2002.html
Quite a line-up of speakers.

Pan

(05/16/2002; 13:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75815)

Now the Indians can buy gold on NSE

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=10098655!!! God news for Gold Bugs from India !!!
*****************************************

FRIDAY, MAY 17, 2002

THE TIMES OF INDIA INDIA BUSINESS

Now you can buy gold on NSE
***************************

VINU LAL

TIMES NEWS NETWORK [ THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2002 11:44:01 PM ]

MUMBAI: If you want to invest in gold, forget about a trip to your local jewellery store or the local bullion market. Instead just call up your National Stock Exchange broker and simply place your order. A draft document filed before the SEBI will allow just that �trading in gold- based units on the country's biggest stock exchange.

As per the new scheme from Benchmark Asset Management Co, units in the proposed gold fund will be denominated in gold terms and where the net asset value of the units will be always equal to the market price of one gram of gold.

The scheme, which has also sought clearance from Reserve Bank of India, will be an exchange traded fund (ETF), to be listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Explaining the fund structure, a market analyst said: ��Instead of buying gold from jewellers in physical form, you will now be able to buy the same as units of Gold BeES, a fund that will be listed in NSE. This is done as a mutual fund, which can be traded on the exchange like shares.��

The investments will be made in deposit papers issued by RBI-permitted bullion banks, whereby even the investments are directly related to actual gold prices. So, unlike any other investments, like equity or debt products, money collected from investors are deployed in gold-linked papers issued by banks. And this process is being done through fund-appointed authorised participants.

��India is the largest market for gold in terms of consumption and we import 500 tonnes of gold every year. This fund will essentially try to enable those people who are keen to buy gold for all purposes. Through this scheme, one can benefit from adverse price movements in future along with quality of gold (0.995 per cent pure). Also this can be used as arbitraging opportunity with physical asset,�� the analyst added.

kludge

(05/16/2002; 13:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75816)

@Aristotle

Hello Sir Aristotle.

Never really understood the reasoning postulated by many that a new law / executive order banning the private holding of gold today would also exempt old/(semi)numismatic gold as it did in the past. It seems reasonable to me that a new ban (agreed, highly unlikely) might exempt any type (coins, bars, new, old, jewelery, fillings, or whatever) or exempt none at all! Unlike the judicial branch, I'm not sure the legislative or executive branches have much respect for past precedents. This is my reasoning behind having an assortment of metals in a variety of forms - the shotgun approach if you will.

But more of what I was trying to convey was, should a situation arise that necessitated the direct use to gold for purchases / bartering / bribing(?), then (in my case) I'm thinking it'll be mostly small transactions with various local businesses and individuals, should it be a lengthy "situation" that depletes my stores of goods. (The bulk of my PM holdings being left in reserve until all the smoke clears and I make an assessment of the damage to my paper holdings and it's impact on my standard of living.) My thinking is that because of different fineness and unmarked weights on older coins - the newer bullion coins may be better suited for the smaller, locally conducted trades. Whether or not we believe everything the US Govt says, I think most would believe "1 oz fine gold" can be trusted as such. I personally couldn't tell you the fineness and weight of a Sovereign off-hand, so I'm not comfortable assuming this is common knowledge, nor that the Internet is available and accessable to everyone I may want to, or need to, do business with - nor even the public library - to research the value and content of coins. Perhaps this info would become common knowledge quickly in such a situation, perhaps not.

Just attempting to cover all the bases, from an Argentina to something more serious - hope you don't think me a "bigger-than-life Die-Hard macho guy". :-)

animus opibusque parati!

kludge

goldquest

(05/16/2002; 13:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75817)

Whatever Happened To Sound Money?

http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/sound_money.htmMore food for thought.

CoBra(too)

(05/16/2002; 14:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75818)

Debt - @ Pizz

- Sorry to answer ... to you - alone - in form of a Pizza ...though the $ - may need a steam roller to flatten out a breakfast pancake to the size of a few acres - to any semblance of being able to pay back the accrued and ever accruing FRN - Debt.

The Creature of Jekyll Island - as it killed your US of A Constitution - is now killing off the rest of your great liberties - once guaranteed and now just the seed of a new imperial flu of de ja vu'!

Thank You - and please read Bill Bonner, Kurt Richeb�cher ,
and your few own US smart enough economist's to see through this unbelievable scheme - now scam - to subsidize the own productive sectors to export all the rest - and just blow up the service sector to proportions - a treat Wall Street can do best - uh, oh, next to Mc Donalds - and I'd be really curious if a star ... tech-analyst can be trained to flip Hamburgers to the heat of low technical description of rare - medium and or well done - and beat the Street's expectations on ever quarter piece(meal) of charred meat?

... Oh, well probably not - you've got to train the flipper to forget the annual growth in productivity - or we'll all end up with with the latest and last well done "skipper" of the post production age.
... A Moby Dick of derivative harpooneers of financial whales - of scales never to float - or never to survive the bloody Tsunami of the rogue wave - which the traders of JPMC, GS , ML , UBS/CS abd DB have already triggered by their atrocious, infamous and stupendous bigotry and the unbelieveable arrogance of beating all - including the markets by the sheer size of the re-printable paper fiat fraudulence... skinning their blubber from the original insurance of counterparty risk - and standing alone in Trillion paper derivative blubber - as the last whales have been extinct ... and -

- Until - yes , until some -one and two and three and some more will find no value behind the decree of "legal tender" and render the scheme an idiosyncracy --- as the blubber of whales met crude oil ... the former are on the way to extinction, while the latter is wasted for short term (cheap) energy - to substitute a semblance of growth - while poisoning the atmosphere with toxic residue - above the real value of the resource.

- A very fine - hairline idiocy - as Mr. Greenspan has found out to fund the rest - which now is the internationally acclaimed consumer of last resort - and at the latest report he's (the consumer - AG is entirely another matter!) not even fit to consume a Hamburger - as he probably can't really afford any food - is it junk nor any good - anyway ... and your government is subsidizing your farm products with about another Trillion for the next 10 years? ...

OK - somebody feels a new $ -Design would be in order and his idea was a Green -Span with the logo of IOU - Nothing!

I'll go for the gold and in god I trust! ... cb2

Leigh

(05/16/2002; 14:24:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75819)

Confiscation

I wrote a post a year or so ago about why confiscation might be unlikely in the U.S. It's because it would be politically incorrect in a major way!

Our country is infinitely more diverse now than it was in the 1930s. We have people from all countries and religions now. How is it going to look if we tell people from India that they have to give up their gold? How are we going to differentiate between an American citizen of Indian descent (who might have to give up his gold) and an Indian citizen on a student visa (who gets to keep it because he isn't a U.S. citizen)? What about Muslims and their new gold dinars? Wouldn't they cry religious persecution if they were told they couldn't use them here? What about family heirlooms of antique gold coins - would those get snatched from the hands of sobbing relatives? Oh, and what about Asian gold jewelry that is used as money? Is that going to be confiscated?

I think it would be next to impossible to outlaw gold in one country and not another. People are too diverse and fast-moving. The government would have a public-relations nightmare on its hands.

mikal

(05/16/2002; 14:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75820)

@Leigh

I agree 100%. Nice post!

balzac

(05/16/2002; 14:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75821)

Article on public debt??

PizzWhere did you find the figures for the Fed Res?
When I look over the figures I cannot locate the 559 billion held by them.
thanks
balzac

mikal

(05/16/2002; 14:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75822)

Re: Coins, jewelry, dinars, etc.

Leigh, that very diversity you mention is such a great asset to everyone. To a gold coin, bullion, or jewelry holder, it means more variety available to buy on the market. And more markets to sell his/her variety. It's always good to see dealers like MK's Centennial PM's selling that very variety.

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 15:00:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75823)

Balzac

http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/b12.htmlGo to above link and go to "ownership of federal securities". It's a four page pdf and the FED numbers are on page 2. I was working off a hard copy and my previous link was direct to a pdf file I was looking at, not this one. Sorry.

sector

(05/16/2002; 15:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 75824)

SEC broadens accounting probe [WSJ ]

http://www.msnbc.com/news/752974.asp?cp1=1Seeks more details about revenue-boosting tricks

By Susan Pulliam and Rebecca Blumenstein
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

May 16 � Securities and Exchange Commission officials, concerned about an explosion of transactions that falsely created the impression of booming business across a range of industries, are conducting a sweeping investigation into a host of practices that pump up revenue.

THE INQUIRY IS extending far beyond the disclosures by Dynegy Inc., Reliant Resources Inc. and CMS Energy Corp. that they engaged in illusory "swap" trades that boosted their apparent business. Questions about whether companies� revenues are legitimate are spreading from industry to industry, raising further questions about whether misleading practices contributed to the hyper-growth of the stock market during the late 1990s.

In addition to the SEC's inquiry into the telecom companies Global Crossing Ltd. and Qwest Communications International Inc. swapping fiber-optic capacity to increase revenue, people familiar with the matter say the agency's investigation into Lucent Technologies Inc. is now also probing the role vendor financing played in its sales. The agency has won restatements in a look at three Internet firms that booked revenue from wire transfers among themselves that were purportedly payments for services; a lawyer familiar with the transactions says that at least in some instances there were no such services. Those examples come on top of recent acknowledgments by major companies in disparate fields, such as Kmart and Xerox, about revenue they've claimed that has subsequently been questioned by regulators.

"I don't want to say it's an epidemic, but we've seen enough problems that it concerns us. We need to hit this pretty hard," says Charles Niemeier, head of accounting of the SEC's Enforcement Division. "Some companies were trying to give the appearance of economic activity when there was none."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No economic activity? In internet stocks? Telcos?

These guys the the SEC must be shrieking with laughter as soon as the microphone gets turned off. They are rtrying to make it look[With straight faces] as if there is a real investigation...now THAT'S hard. Probably asking for big bonuses too...it's only government money anyway.

Look around your own neighborhood for the indicators of depression...layoffs [My next-door neighbor's wife says Verizon is set to layoff 15,000].

Some recovery.

sector

(05/16/2002; 15:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75825)

JP Morgan abandons its strategic thinkers

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT33GNEH91D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=ZZZGF39D20C⊂heading=US%20equities
By Mary Chung in New York
Published: May 15 2002 19:08 | Last Updated: May 16 2002 00:15
FT.COM

JP Morgan has quietly abandoned its US research strategy team over the past few months, just as the costs of objective research have become an issue on Wall Street.

Five of the firm's six strategists have departed or were laid off this year, and the bank is understood to be making only a "half-hearted" attempt to fill a couple of the positions.

JP Morgan is estimated to spend half of what its main rivals do on research and with the equity markets in a slump and JP Morgan struggling to curb costs, the value of strategy - broader market and sector research - has declined for the bank.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Who needs "Research" when you rig the markets?

YGM

(05/16/2002; 15:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75826)

US Default...The Two Step Shuffle...

Wash Times..May 15thMay 15, 2002

Treasury shuffles cash to avoid default

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill, for the second time this year, is moving money around to prevent the federal government from defaulting on the national debt as his agency faces a standoff in Congress.
To dodge a default for now, Mr. O'Neill intends to temporarily shift billions of dollars in civil service retirement funds to non-interest-bearing accounts starting today or tomorrow , the Treasury Department announced. That would allow more government borrowing.
The move is necessary because Treasury's request to extend the government's authority to borrow has been mired in a political fight on Capitol Hill. Lower-than-expected tax payments are squeezing the government's cash flow.
Mr. O'Neill has asked Congress to boost the debt limit by $750 billion. The limit now stands at $5.95 trillion.
The juggling of federal retirement accounts � which has been done before by other Treasury secretaries, including the Clinton administration's Robert Rubin, in standoffs with Congress � will not harm federal employees' retirement nest eggs, Treasury officials said, because the lost interest payments will be made up in coming months.
Treasury's latest action to avoid breaking the debt limit involves temporarily shifting money from both the government securities retirement fund and the civil service retirement and disability fund into non-interest-bearing accounts. Treasury avoided a default in April by shifting funds from the government securities retirement account.
"The Treasury faces obligations in late June that, on the basis of current projections, cannot be surmounted without an increase in the statutory debt limit," Treasury said in a statement yesterday.
"Lack of certainty will challenge the Treasury's ability to ensure timely processing of payments to Social Security and other beneficiaries," the Treasury Department statement said.
June 28 is also the last day that Congress is scheduled to be in session before recess for the July 4th holiday.
Republicans who control the House lack the votes to pass a measure. Republicans are sensitive about an election-year maneuver that would help the government borrow more. Democrats, meanwhile say President Bush's tax cut last year created the problem and they don't feel compelled to help him fix it.
"Many Republicans still in Congress today considered these same actions an 'impeachable offense' when Secretary Rubin used them. Now that it's a Republican Treasury secretary, the silence from these same lawmakers is deafening," said the House Ways and Means Committee's top Democrat, Rep. Charles B. Rangel of New York. "The House Republicans should explain why they flip-flopped."

Voyager

(05/16/2002; 15:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75827)

Old Yeller

Thank You

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 16:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75828)

Debt Maturities

http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/b12.htmlUnder "Public Debt", "Maturity Schedules . . . ."
it appears that just the maturing of current debt is over 400 billion this year and next, with almost 200 billion between now and the end of September.

YGM, Congress can't decide if we should be able to borrow more, and I'm wondering at what interest rate we're going to be able to refinance what we've got maturing.

I wonder if we keep screwing around with the retirees that sooner or later they are finally going to realize there's no money - period.

Another thing to consider, which I haven't dug into yet, but suspect - If Social Security is tapped out (and the fact that they may have to hold SS checks for an increase in the debt ceiling is a good indication) a goodly portion of this refunding over the next 6 quarters (+ our current deficit needs) is going to have to have to come from private and foreign sources.

I'm sure Japan is in good enough shape for a few billion, and the oil money is bound to be willing to invest in more paper, the funds have billions in spare cash - right!!!!

Maybe I'm just an excentric doomsdayer, but this is starting to appear to be the biggest cash flow crunch in the history of the world.

Pizz

Cavan Man

(05/16/2002; 16:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75829)

US Markets This Week

CNBC reports a strong rumor of a large buyer or buyers in the markets buying the NDQ 100 and DOW....something about QQQ's...? Might this be short covering or timing?

CoBra(too)

(05/16/2002; 17:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 75830)

@ Sector - though - you alone ....

"Who needs Research when you "can" rig the markets" ... a very true observation!

- I've also followed the likes of Steven Roach and Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley for decades - and found these two to be true to their avocation.
A treat, affording some personal herois'm vs. all the hedonis'm coming their way ... After all, there are still some analysts left- who've not been corrupted ... by their respective investment banking shills - in any way and that at least keeps some of my esteem (not self-) of a few straight guys out of the malaise ... of total doom and gloom!

OK, Sector, Sir, I'm reluctantly - and with my few other views, which seem to overstate your case - with you and can only plead guilty - not having seen - or rather NOT wanting to see the rigging of any former free - and probably you now have to fill in the word "financial" market - AS ALL SEEMS TRO BE RIGGED!

What used to be the great S&L scandal in the 70's - killing off the last independent farmers is now blowing sky-kigh by the GSE's as of the likes of Fanny Mae or Freddie Mac- though that's only a petty symbol of the desease.

The reality is pyramiding credit derivatives by the largest banks to a degree of no return, nor counter party.

Not even wanting to go into Gold derivative scams - as it is also 10 times as large as any underlying commodity - this is only the tip of the iceberg - as the leveraged community has nobody left on the other side of reality -

... and on a clear day even Mr. Greenspan may see forever - and I personally hope he will and leave the helm and lever of the greatest conspiracy and scam, ever hitting the world and in particular the US of A - the land of the free - enslaved by a few bastards rigging the true constitutional money by the "creature" of the Jekyll Island...

... So in the end - who needs research - anyway - as it only means distorting numbers the way - you would like them to appear in the general way of perception - and beating the general conception of growth - a' la Carte by your friendly maitre de' - even Cart' Blanche for the political correct bouteille of Henessy or Remy - even by those , knowing the global co. lost their last panty hose by promoting their own Waterloo!

... and then you hear about 100 plus Trillion $'s of notional value of derivative "insurance" by a few global bank'sters - gangsters, holding the world incommunicado - as these amounts in the end amount to - absolute ZERO -

... so why did we ever fear a Mafia or a Narc Cartel - when your friendly bank has long ago filled these elevated positions - and is also using your tax money to fight the former - lightweights, as it seems now - cartels of no real consequence - while the real traffic of heavy usury remains with the cartel's spigot of creating obscene paper -which still has the spell of 'legal tender' - law's - to be outlawed as un-constitutional - ...

... and as fairy tales end ... the Greenspan's, O'Neill's and Robert Rubin's will live ever happily on ... together with their minions - or the other way around - as the creature from Jekyll Island ... the US FED abounds ... and I'm against all and any cb - cb2 - hopein' you too

Cavan Man

(05/16/2002; 17:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75831)

@CB(too)

I've just checked global satellite images and can see a lot of steam rising over Vienna. I'm steaming cabbage and drinking a BUD....CM

Mr Gresham

(05/16/2002; 17:25:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75832)

Pizz

The real torpedo to watch for -- and perhaps to hedge against -- is a jump in short-term interest rates. You've described a scenario leading to that, almost perfectly.

Gov default in some form, SS holdbacks, savers' revolt. MM fund "breakabuck".

Will gold outrun those jumps? If FOA's scenario of a Dollar in freefall holds, then yes. If an ordinary recession or deflation, not likely. Suspense ahead.

Does the 354 level represent the crossover point, last chance at a reasonable pricepoint to get on the lifeboat before Spike-Month? Or is it more of a timing factor -- a two-Enron occurrence?

Does perfect financial modeling, and "management" -- (managing the statistics and expectations, at least) -- lead inevitably to the Perfect Storm?

(Still haven't rented that movie -- maybe I'll have a financial movie thriller script come out of it? Or maybe just get seasick... Hey -- Harrison Ford and "Moonstruck's" writer Shanley were housepainters before they made it -- why can't accountants write the next blockbuster?)

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 17:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75833)

(No Subject)

Cobra(too): Where do I find this "creature from Jekyll Island"? Can he pull a rabbit out of the debt hat that's full of snakes. (by the way, ok to take a shot at me, but what have you got against Pizza - the food of champions that goes great with any European brew???)

Pippin: Elliot waves are interesting, and I re-read the long wave (1999 essays) this week. They make as much sense as any technical indicator, but I have a real hard time with the real long wave stuff because the implications are that the earth, climate, human nature, etc. are all inter-twined together and influence commerce/business on a predictable pattern. I'm just more inclined to believe that most technical analysis is more self - fulfilling than based upon either science or psycology. The more popular the model the more accurate it becomes. I read once that a regression hypnotist regressed a bunch of people forward into future lives (that's a bit of a contradicition in terms but how it was written) and found that there were a lot more future lives after the next 200 years and concluded that there was going to be a drastic reduction in the population during the next 200 years. This also can fit into Elliot long waves, or Nostradamous, or Y2k, . . . .

Pizz

Aristotle

(05/16/2002; 17:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75834)

My most realistic look at "Gold confiscation"

Here's my core thoughts on the matter for Leigh, mikal, and kludge

I'll try to break precedent by being thorough AND brief with my thoughts.

I don't *expect* to see a Gold confiscation here in the U.S., but I've given myself a layer of protection anyway. And why not? Hope for the sunshine, but pack an umbrella for a rainy day. As easily as buying Bullion I can buy a beautiful variety of century-old coins with great liquidity. Since they were alloyed and minted for circulation, being able to handle these coins (yes, I enjoy doing an occasional, unnecessary inventory) adds a great deal to my overall satisfaction as a Gold owner, a satisfaction that I don't get from the soft Bullion coins.

Confiscation is such an ugly word for a politician to consider, and like I said above, I doubt that we'll see anything like a Gold seizure in the United States. Instead, it would take the form of capital controls.

Here's what **I think** it would look like if it ever came to that. Let's gaze into that cloudy future, shall we?

During a time rocked by an economic crisis and a severely devaluing dollar in international markets, there would be import/export controls (tariffs, quotas, etc) on many items or industries of strategic importance. Imports and exports of Gold might likely be restricted to operations for the official accounts of the Treasury Department or Federal Reserve.

There might be domestic price controls on strategically important items or industries. Gold would certainly be among them. The government would set a single official price for Gold, and all commercial bullion dealers, brokers, coinshops, banks, and whatnot would have no choice but to pay only the single official government "fair market price" as compensation for Bullion items that are willingly cashed in. The shops would then be restricted to sell the Bullion only to the government for the official price.

Think about it. It would be easy for the government to mandate a single price per ounce for all forms of bullion because all bullion is by design produced and valued only for its actual Gold content, NOT for its sentimental or collector value. And more importantly, it would be an undertaking they PRACTICABLY achieve without much fuss.

The government would leave old Gold coins (Sovereigns, German marks, Gold francs) to continue to trade among free people without interference at whatever price the market would bear. Due to the vast variety of condition and mintages for this world of possible Gold coins that are bought and held *ostensibly* for sentimental "collection" purposes, it would be impossible for the government to implement a workable pricing scheme to pay "fair market compensation" for the trade in these multitudes of various coins.

Thus, with any and all potential interest in Bullion investments effectively locked down by the import/export and especially the pricing controls on Bullion, the free markets would turn their attention to the remaining forms of old Gold coins available. Just for fun, on a weight basis, how do you think their free prices would compare with the restricted Bullion price in the domestic market? Double? Triple? Ten-fold?

If challenged by their low official price for Bullion, the government would claim their Bullion prices are fair, and the old coins are fetching top dollar on the basis of their age and scarcity. And they'd be right! We'd actually have something resembling a Free Gold Market here in the United States, but built on the basis of century-old Gold coinage.

I hope (and expect) that we'll never see such things as government controls come about, but why take unnecessary risks when you have alternatives?

You'll no doubt agree. Variety is the spice of life, and can be the main course, too!

Gold. Get you some variety. --- Aristotle

YGM

(05/16/2002; 17:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75835)

Is ther a pattern here??? No? I can't see anything relative to the now times

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/of01-006/gold.pdfGold Imports, Production, Consumption, Shipped (Fed) and Exports from 1908 to 2000....*This chart doesn't include monetary Gold (Coinage)

Points of interest..."FWIW Column"

Major Gold Exports...1928,31,32, 1944, & 1961 thru 1968 and thru 1988 to 2000 Exports far exceed Imports....

Major Gold Imports...1934 thru 1944 (Big time)and thru
1947, 48, 49.

I don't see a pattern myself of any consequence other than big brother went to town on imports right after the Gold Confiscation of 1933...But then w/o monetary Gold stats and total belief in what could be Anderson type accounting, plus we know NY Port Authority was/is screwed when reporting Gold Shipments bound overseas....This seems like an effort in futility anyway......YGM.

CoBra(too)

(05/16/2002; 17:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75836)

@ Pizz - Nothing against Pizza -

- Though Jekyll Island was the retreat for 7- or was it 9 inter- and -national bankers plotting the FED in 1910 - which became the first real threat to your great constutitution and probably sowing the seeds of destroying the liberty of the citizens of the land of the former free ...

I do decroy your ploy with you - and not against you - and that's why I'm acquiring gold - physically too... cb2

Pizz, dear Sir, please don't feel attacked by me ... I'm only an old bugger, who sometimes feels to retort and then I resort to my poor capability of 'another' language...

Thank you for bearing with me - cb2

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 18:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75837)

Cobra(too)

I didn't think you were attacking me, I was just makin a Pizza joke. I (very poorly) was trying to say that I value Pizza and brew very highly ( more so than FRN's and debt!!!). Thanks for the Jekyll Island info. didn't know that.

I'm just ready to turn into an old goat also (per Aristotle and YGM.)

By the way, you are fluent in at least two languages, and my hat's off to you. I like most Americans have only learned one and allowed arrogance to be our second, and the second will be our downfall. If FOA is right, I hope to be able to afford to get out, and if I can't, I'm goin' real deep into the sticks.

Pizz

P.S. Anyone, since I'm such a lousy speller, how does everone else post - do you use a word processor, notepad or something with a spell checker then copy over?? Every time I've used word it truncates all over the place??

Golden Bear

(05/16/2002; 19:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75838)

CoBra(too) (msg#: 75830)

"....and on a clear day even Mr. Greenspan may see forever - and I personally hope he will and leave the helm and lever of the greatest conspiracy and scam, ever hitting the world and in particular the US of A - the land of the free - enslaved by a few bastards rigging the true constitutional money by the "creature" of the Jekyll Island..."

Na, let his arrogance rule him and keep him in the position until TSHTF so he can be vilified and remembered as the guy who helped perpetrate the scam of all ages.

Cheers.

YGM

(05/16/2002; 19:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75839)

PIZZ......

Old Goats??I represent that remark...OOops! Did my Goatee give me away?
(:)>

YGM

(05/16/2002; 19:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75840)

The New US...British Oil Imperialism....Pt. 1

http://www.hermes-press.com/impintro1.htm**Off to read this myself........YGM

EXCERPT:

Part 1

The American and British ruling circles have been engaged in a policy of military imperialism for several centuries. The American revolution was fought to bring the United States under new, non-British ruling circles, with the new regime sold to the public as a democracy. In the twentieth century, these American ruling elites have revolved around the Rockefeller, Brown, Harriman, and Morgan family dynasties. The Bush family, beginning with Prescott Bush, have served as satraps of the Rockefeller, Brown, and Harriman interests.
As we've seen, in earlier articles on these imperialistic rulers (Part 1, Part 2), the British and American ruling cabals decided that the energy of choice for the world would be oil and natural gas (not coal)--just as the drugs of choice would be alcohol and tobacco.

To overcome the problem of his oil holdings being broken apart by the U.S. government in 1911, John Rockefeller set out to control the world's oil, gas, and nuclear energy reserves. World War I was the strategy of the world oil cartel (Standard, Shell, British Petroleum) to take over the colonies of France, Holland, Spain and Portugal. The engines of war now ran on petroleum-based products, so ownership of oil could now determine who won or lost a war--therefore who would rule the world. Oil, instead of gold, became the token of power.

By 1919, the Oil Empire, not based on countries or nations, but on private corporations, now ruled the world.

Cont'd....

YGM

(05/16/2002; 20:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75841)

AFTER READING US/BRITISH OIL IMPERIALISM PAPER...

I WOULD STATE "IT'S A MUST READ"For any who have not....It gives and sheds great clarity on past, present and "FUTURE" World events......To me this is one of the most significant pieces of internet reading I've ever come across.....YGM.

Canuck

(05/16/2002; 20:25:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75842)

@ Aristotle

I just read your latest, I'm not sure if I am understanding your recent theme. I will "quote you" and interject from time to time.

"Think about it. It would be easy for the government to mandate a single price per ounce for all forms of bullion because all bullion is by design produced and valued only for its actual Gold content, NOT for its sentimental or collector value."

Are you suggesting that gold (bullion) will be 'fixed' at a rate that will be 'non-profitable'?

"The government would leave old Gold coins (Sovereigns, German marks, Gold francs) to continue to trade among free people without interference at whatever price the market would bear. Due to the vast variety of condition and mintages for this world of possible Gold coins that are bought and held *ostensibly* for sentimental "collection" purposes, it would be impossible for the government to implement a workable pricing scheme to pay "fair market compensation" for the trade in these multitudes of various coins."

Are you suggesting that gold bullion is not the asset class to be investing into? Are you suggesting that the 'security' of old & ancient (and by your extension) 'non-confiscationable' coins be the investment of choice?

"Thus, with any and all potential interest in Bullion investments effectively locked down by the import/export and especially the pricing controls on Bullion, the free markets would turn their attention to the remaining forms of old Gold coins available."

Bullion locked down.... old gold coins to trade without interference.....

What are you suggesting Aristotle, gold is dead. Long live old coins with their fiat premium?

Let me rephrase that, a one-ounce bullion wafer is 'locked down' while a 1900 double-Eagle will soar to the heavens?

What stamps and baseball cards do you recommend?

Canuck

(05/16/2002; 20:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75843)

@ Pizz

Re: your 75828

Good post Pizz, we need a good man like you following the money!

YGM

(05/16/2002; 20:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75844)

The Older Goat "Aristotle" from 384 B.C.E.

His Ancient Thoughts on Wealth & Money.....Wealth is everything whose value can be measured by money; but it is the use rather than the possession of commodities which constitutes riches.

Financial exchange first involved bartering. However, with the difficulties of transmission between countries widely separated from each other, money as a currency arose. At first it was merely a specific amount of weighted or measured metal. Afterwards it received a stamp to mark the amount. Demand is the real standard of value. Currency, therefore, is merely a convention which represents the demand; it stands between the producer and the recipient and secures fairness. Usury is an unnatural and reprehensible use of money.

* I think our Aristotle must be the elders offspring a few times removed of course :>)

linda

(05/16/2002; 21:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75845)

testing password

Success!

Trapper

(05/16/2002; 22:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75846)

Aristotle,Leigh, Kludge & All

ConfiscationPlease indulge me for a short primer. It's 1970 I have just got out of the naval hospital from having a case of holes fixed I caught in Viet Nam. An old buddy intruduces me to this fellow who has a baseball size ball of pure gold from circut boards he wants to sell cheap. Well from my experience in Nam I knew that gold was real money and had last call value, but I also knew it was not legal to own so I passed. I got the fever and when it became legal I got into coin shows etc. and have been in ever since.
Now here we are in the next gold rush. We all know it is coming and in a BIG way. They trouble is the goverment knows it too, and they are real worried. The cash economy is running them nuts...add to that a gold bug pays his house off with 3 k-rands. They ain't going to let us get away with this.
My source tells me that he thinks they have decided not to confiscate, for many of the reasons all of you have been saying. The collectors have the best lobby right now but they will get it too without a turn in.In 1933 all gold coins were contraband as they were all pre 1933 even non US.
They are going to do it buy selling them to a dealer. You will have to give SSN or taxpayer ID number.The dealer will not be able to buy or sell for CASH only checks or credit cards. Some of this is on the books now but not being pushed, but it will when you see US $5.00 gold selling for $500.00. It will be required on all coins and bars of all types and ages. The IRS will talk to you about your tax problems later. They will have no concern how much we all barted or sell between ourselves, just so it can't be used to get it into the system without tracks.
I will bet you that our host will not sell you say 50 $10.00 US gold coins right now if offered cash. Fear is a great tool. Live small.
RJ

YGM

(05/16/2002; 22:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75847)

Pizz.......Or Anyone With a Comment on This........

You said...Maybe I'm just an excentric doomsdayer, but this is starting to appear to be the biggest cash flow crunch in the history of the world.....Pizz.

Could the cash flow crunch not be primarily restricted to the USA? As the world comes to view the US dollar as highly over valued would other Nations as well as any private investor not be looking at the Euro as undervalued, not to mention Gold or Silver and switch their medium of speculation accordingly. With the British now heading into the Euro in all probability I would think there would come about a new dimension for the Euro. The Fed and many Central Banks are controled by Brits and Europeans (old money) IMO they, albeit from the shadows, control the worlds finances. Was it not stated 70% of Fed is foriegn owned? If US $ and Real Estate is grossly over valued I would see a shift coming and it would persist until devaluation of sorts took place and held for a time. Then the cycle would begin again, buy low sell high! As I always admit I'm far from having an education in Financial matters but this seems plausible to me......I think the Gnomes allow the US $ to have this unrealistic value as long as it suits them and other world assets are bought cheaply with inflated $$. When the tide can no longer be held back the old money etc is repositioned for the next round....I firmly believe Central Banks create debt so as to accrue assets when they create a crash such as 1929.....As usual I'm probably off base or too simplistic in this vein but it is interesting to wonder and try to fit the puzzle pieces together.....YGM.

YGM

(05/16/2002; 23:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75848)

Trapper..

Live Small...You said it ... When TSHTF we'll all be trying to live small, barter secretly and staying off the main trails...
Silver will be the least attention getter in purchases. Hold the Gold for special occasions I think....YGM.

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 23:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75849)

Canuck

Thanks, but right now all I'm following is DEBT! Sooner or later I should find some money, but it's like lookin' for a maple in a stadium full of IOU's. Come to think of it, that's about what a maple will be worth in a few years.

Pizz

Carl H

(05/16/2002; 23:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75850)

Cabal Tactic?

Recent posts about buying shares in funds that hold gold on a weight/share basis got me started thinking. Suppose for a moment that you are the cabal and that you are running very short of physical gold. However, you have the ability to create, as needed, any number of dollars. How could you leverage the ability to print dollars to take pressure off of gold? One way would be to start some funds that say they are doing exactly what is described above, but in reality they would have no physical gold in the vault. At worst you would have to print a few pieces of green funny money should the price of gold rise. In any case, such a scheme would divirt funds from buying physical.

I noticed a post earlier that Indians were being targated with one of these funds. This would make sense since they are big buyers of gold.

Given how desparate the cabal is today, I would venture to say that there are better than even odds that what I am speculating is true.

My advice to anyone who cares is -- if you want physical, TAKE POSESSION OF IT. If you own stocks outside of a retirement account, take posession of the certificates so that stock cannot be used for shorting. The fewer middlemen between you and the gold, the better. Every middleman simply increases the risk of corruption or default separating you from your gold.

(I recently read that the brokerage houses themselves don't have to borrow to short a stock. Can anyone verify this?)

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 23:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75851)

Producers endorse BLM push for Powder River basin development

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=143897
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, DC, May 16 -- Producers reaffirmed support for a US Department of Interior draft plan that downplays the environmental impacts of dramatically expanding coalbed methane (CBM) development in the Powder River basin. "The BLM has issued a well-crafted, exhaustive analysis of the potential impacts of development of natural gas and oil resources in the Powder River basin," said Gary Davis, President of Redstone Resources Inc., Denver, and a member of the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States. "The BLM is applying appropriate mitigation measures to address those impacts."

The Powder River basin is a 4 million acre area in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. IPAMS said that the region could yield up to 40 tcf of gas if fully developed. Producers want to expand CBM development there but first must win necessary permits and approvals from the federal government. Within the Powder River basin there are already over 10,000 active CBM wells, and industry hopes to have about 51,000 wells drilled within the decade.

Producers defend the way existing wells have been drilled, saying the water from the fields is clean and suitable for irrigation. Water from fractured coal seams is usually discharged to the surface but is drinkable and can be used for crops, they say.

Producers, however, say CBM development can and has been done in an environmentally responsible way. They also say that CBM potentially representing four times the amount of recoverable energy now locked away in the politically sensitive Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain. "If not in the Rockies, then where?" noted one producer with ties to the region. "The environmental record is sound, and it's unfair that three problematic leases could stand in the way of US production."

Black Blade: [i]A nationwide oil and gas producers strike for about 6 months would shake things up a bit. Permits would fly like confetti. "Let em freeze in the dark"[/i]

Also,

BLM schedules Wyo.-Neb. oil and gas lease sale June 4

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, DC, May 16 -- An oral oil and gas lease auction sponsored by the US Bureau of Land Management will be held June 4 in Cheyenne, Wyo. BLM will offer 95 parcels totaling 87,120 acres of federal lands within Wyoming and Nebraska. BLM last month published and mailed out a notice of sale to potential federal oil and gas lease bidders. It contains a complete list of the parcels, conditions of the sale and lease stipulations, also available at BLM's web site.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=ExplD&ARTICLE_ID=143885

Black Blade: Then again the BLM can just say: "screw em". The coming energy crisis will accelerate plans to drill for and produce hydrocarbons. The situation is more critical as sources of domestic energy are placed off-limits such as ANWR. Now that ANWR has been defeated, we see that the next target for the enviro-kooks is the Rocky Mountain Front. Next to the Gulf of Mexico, the Powder River Basin is among the best hopes for supplying the United States the energy it needs to keep the economy afloat.

Pizz

(05/16/2002; 23:31:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75852)

YGM

Yea, we sure do seem to be on the road to be carpet-bagged, prunned, skinned, rolled in greanbacks, and roasted over burning IOU's. Hope it's over someone else's lifetime.

Think about it. A little congressional gridlock this summer, a dollar crisis, a debt crash, an oil embargo, and one more terrorist attack within say 3 to six months of each other. In a year we'd make Argentina look like a week at the Playboy mansion, and it would be all our own fault.

Let's hope they can stretch it out a few years. Hate to have Aristotle have to change his closing to Gun's and Ammo, get you some.

Pizz

Black Blade

(05/16/2002; 23:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75853)

FBI Investigating Kmart

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020516/retail_kmart_4.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation confirmed on Thursday it is investigating bankrupt retailer Kmart Corp. (NYSE:KM) for possible criminal wrongdoing.

Black Blade: A scandal a week.

Golden Bear

(05/16/2002; 23:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75854)

Carl H (msg#: 75850) Cabal Tactic?

The big brokerage houses have large tranches of stock on their books that they can lend to shorters for shorting purposes. If they want to short themselves, they'd probably do it borrowing from another brokerage (as they're working towards a common goal) or through futures and options.

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 00:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 75855)

SEC broadens accounting probe

http://www.msnbc.com/news/752974.asp?cp1=1
Seek more details about revenue-boosting trick

Snippit:

May 16 � Securities and Exchange Commission officials, concerned about an explosion of transactions that falsely created the impression of booming business across a range of industries, are conducting a sweeping investigation into a host of practices that pump up revenue.

Black Blade: More Wall Street scandals coming to light? A sandal a week. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 00:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75856)

SILENCE MAY NOT BE GOLDEN AT J.P. MORGAN CHASE By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/48070.htm
Snippit:

NOT too many people would recognize the name Dinsa Mehta, at least not outside the rarefied world of J.P. Morgan Chase's executive suite. But it was a rumor about Mehta's employment status at the bank that had the world gold market buzzing last week. For the record, Mehta is still working for J.P. Morgan Chase, where he's been for 26 years. But he is thinking of leaving after a major shake-up reduced his responsibilities as head of global commodity risk management and global foreign exchange. As Mehta put it to me: "I'm still here with no walk-off date in the near future." Still, the man who goes by the nickname Dan is talking like someone who wants a change, but "I'm being asked to stay."

But I wanted to get to the bottom of was this: Did J.P. Morgan really have a problem with gold that led to the shake-up? Mehta says no. In fact, he says that because real interest rates (rates after inflation) are so low right now, there is actually very little risk in gold trading. What about foreign countries interfering in the gold markets? Mehta won't discuss that. But he is amused by the way gold traders weave a rumor, especially about his own demise. "Conspiracy theorists are doing what they do best: provide entertainment from the sidelines," Mehta said. Investigations? "That's definitely not the case, bless their (the conspiracy theorists') hearts," he said.

Black Blade: This story gets more bizarre all the time. However, as someone that high up the food chain, it is possible that the upper management wants to keep Mehta on a very short leash � especially with the Enron-Mahonia-JP Morgan Chase investigation underway. This story can yet get very "interesting".

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 00:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75857)

Joseph Granville's Profits of Doom

http://businessweek.com/investor/content/may2002/pi20020515_9273.htm
Snippit:

Wall Street's perennial pessimist sings the praises of gold and explains why he believes that stocks could go "much lower -- for years!"

Granville's reputation suffered a blow in 1982, after he incorrectly predicted a market crash. In 1999, in the midst of the bubble economy, many investors found his bearish outlook laughable. But at 78, Granville is still at it, putting out his market letter, writing books, and providing a daily stock market fax service. And guess what? He's bearish about the future.

Black Blade: Interesting article for the TA crowd.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 00:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 75858)

Continuing jobless claims jump

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=dhtml&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B4C2B41AE%2DE795%2D45A5%2D88A4%2DC4A721CF7A3D%7D

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time jobless claims rose again last week, while the number of continuing claims for jobless benefits has soared to levels not seen in nearly two decades, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the week ending May 11 rose 2,000 to 418,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 416,000. Economists polled by CBS.MarketWatch.com had anticipated a level of 407,000.

The number of people receiving state jobless benefits leaped 82,000 to 3.9 million, the highest number since April 23, 1983. The four-week moving average was 3.8 million, up 17,750 from the previous week. The figures do not include about 1.3 million people who received extended benefits under a federal program.

Black Blade: It is a good thing that the data is "seasonally adjusted" or the numbers would have been much worse. Note that the numbers are as bad as during the recession of the early 1980's if not worse. We have seen a few months of recessionary unemployment levels with no sign of relief in sight.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 01:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75859)

Harry Schultz and the second great gold war

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD4F04CD3%2D9AC4%2D43E5%2DA5DB%2DD1F74ACA85C4%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold withstood a major effort to break it down yesterday, struggling back above $308. But the gold-timing letters tracked by Mark Hulbert still remain quite skeptical as of last night's close: only an average 29 percent exposed.

The best gold timers -- letters that have beaten the market over the past decade -- are more bullish: 33 percent exposed, on average. (A couple, for example The Elliott Wave Theorist's Bob Prechter, are net short).

Black Blade: Going against the grain has usually been the best strategy. Contrairian investors have done well and if most Gold timing newsletters are bearish, then I say that is excellent information to hear. Also, if the most successful timers are bullish, then that is even better.

Spartacus

(05/17/2002; 01:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75860)

Top firms at risk of liquidity crisis

http://www.business.scotsman.com/economy.cfm?id=527582002
--RATING agency Standard & Poor's has suggested that at least 23 companies in the United States and Europe, including troubled energy trader Dynegy and conglomerate Tyco, could face a liquidity crisis because of "triggers" in their borrowing agreement.

Reporting on results of a survey of 1,000 companies, S&P said about 500 firms have triggers, which are clauses that could force a company to post collateral or pay back debt if it is downgraded or misses other financial targets.

Of the companies most vulnerable to a cash drain, more than half are energy businesses because of their greater use of off-balance sheet financing.

Faulted for not alerting investors soon enough to the impending bankruptcy of Enron, S&P and other rating agencies have been poring over companies� books in search of potentially lethal triggers.--

Spartacus

(05/17/2002; 01:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 75861)

Top firms at risk of liquidity crisis

Spartacus

(05/17/2002; 01:33:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75862)

ECB's Duisenberg Says He's Not Satisfied With Inflation Data

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APOP0EhTaRUNCJ3Mg&ao=18831986
Frankfurt, May 16 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said he's not satisfied with recent inflation data, suggesting the bank may raise borrowing costs for the first time in 18 months.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 01:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75863)

Supply cuts revive Canadian heavy oil prices

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=972832
Snippit:

CALGARY, Alberta, May 16 (Reuters) - Production cuts and rising demand have lifted prices for Canadian heavy crude, a major export to the thirsty U.S. market, after a slump last year that squeezed producers' profits, executives and analysts said on Thursday. Wellhead prices have jumped from C$8 ($5.16) per barrel in November to C$28 this month, said Ray Chan, vice-president of Baytex Energy Ltd. BTEa.TO , which produces 25,000 barrels per day of the molasses-like crude. "It's been unreal," Chan said. "The volatility has truly been unprecedented, and it makes planning very difficult." Canada exports about 885,000 barrels of heavy oil a day to U.S. refineries, accounting for 5 percent of total U.S. oil demand. But the heavier grades carry a discount, called the differential, because it costs more to refine into gasoline and other products. Heavy oil is also used to make asphalt.

Black Blade: In future years Canadian heavy crudes and tar sands will become increasing important to US energy demand. Unfortunately there is a looming shortfall in local natural gas as an energy source for extracting and partial refining prior to transport.

($1=$1.55 Canadian)

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 02:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75864)

Rolling blackouts could darken Las Vegas

http://www.sacbee.com/content/news/energy/story/2748659p-3512810c.html

Snippit:

Rolling blackouts could strike Las Vegas this summer, national grid experts predicted Wednesday, in what could be an uncanny replay of California in 2000. Just the way California's crisis began building nearly two years ago, a cash-strapped utility is in a standoff with state regulators who won't let it charge as much as it wants. Its credit ratings have plunged to junk. It has just told many suppliers it will no longer pay them in full.

When the same things unfolded in California, generators balked at selling electricity or steeply raised prices and blamed it on "credit risk." The worsening spiral was part of what triggered rolling blackouts in January 2001 and forced the state to step in to buy electricity.The industry group, which sets standards for running the nation's interconnected electric systems, has earmarked southern Nevada and southwestern Connecticut as two potential trouble spots this year. California should have no problems, it said.

Black Blade: With Hoover Dam right there too. It would be something to see the Strip dark and all the Vegans fry in their desert caves this summer. At least it would free up a lot of electricity for California.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 02:24:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75865)

Shell Chairman Says Signs of Economic Revival Are `Unreliable'

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 02:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75866)

Banks' Ignorance of Metal Trading Allowed Abuses, Experts Say

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOOavRWsQmFua3Mn
Snippit:

New York, May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bankers untrained in the secretive business of buying and selling the Earth's crust overlooked abuses that led to the federal criminal complaint against four metal traders for allegedly defrauding at least $600 million from banks, metals experts said. ``The documents that could have revealed these deals to be scams were on the desks of all the banks,'' says Michel Castera, a former director of the French metal trading firm Pechiney Trading SA. ``They either didn't look or didn't understand what they were looking at.''

The bilked banks include FleetBoston Financial Corp., PNC Financial Services Group, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., KBC Bancassurance NV, Hypovereinsbank NA, Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika AG, China Trust Bank and General Bank.

Black Blade: Bankers aren't exactly the most intelligent people to begin with, so it isn't all that surprising that they were so easily taken.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 03:05:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75867)

To hedge or not to hedge?

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1086906-6094-0,00.html
Gold producers that sell forward at preset prices feel pinch

Snippit:

Higher gold prices have not translated into increased earnings for some of the major gold companies, and two distinct camps have emerged: those that hedge (sell gold forward at preset prices) and those that choose not to.

Non-Hedgers

SA's gold companies outperformed their North American counterparts on a net earning basis without hedging. Unhedged Harmony Gold was the star performer when net earnings are considered. SA's third largest producer reported net earnings for the first quarter up almost 100% to R615m from R308m in the December quarter. Gold Fields, also unhedged, saw net profit rise to R1,049bn from R640m, recorded in the three months to the end of December.

Hedgers

Newmont Mining, which became the largest gold producer last year after it won the bidding battle against AngloGold for Australia's Normandy Mining, was the last of the leading gold companies to report its earnings for the first three months of the year. Denver-based Newmont, which hedges its sales, recorded a first-quarter net loss of 10,9m down from $39,1m in the first quarter last year. But AngloGold, SA's largest gold producer, posted a drop in net profit in the first quarter of 9,5%, as it suffered from a rising gold spot price. As a company that chooses to hedge gold, Anglo found itself selling quantities of gold into forward contracts at prices lower than the average gold spot price. Barrick Gold, another hedger and the second largest producer in the world, saw first-quarter profit drop 47% to $46m

Black Blade: The "Day of the Hedger" is over. AngloGold, Barrick, and Placer Dome could find themselves bankrupt soon enough if the POG keeps rising.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 03:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75868)

Euro fuels goldrush

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-298610,00.html

Snippit:

A RUSH to convert old currency "mattress money" following the arrival of the euro fuelled a huge rise in the sales of gold coins across Europe, new figures show.
Demand for gold coins was up 69 per cent in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Consumers hastened to convert their marks, lire, francs and other currencies.

Banks in Austria and Germany regularly advertise gold coins for sale. In Germany, a new issue of a commemorative gold euro coin requiring 11 tonnes of gold was six times oversubscribed.

The UK has now overtaken Italy to become Europe's largest market for gold jewellery. Total gold demand in the UK in the first three months came to 14 tonnes, spurred by brisk demand for 9 and 18-carat gold pieces.

Black Blade: "mattress money" was converted into Gold ahead of the Euro conversion and for many it was a means to avoid the tax man because of the huge European underground economy.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 03:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 75869)

World Gold Trends

http://www.gold.org/finalgold/gold/Gedt/Gdt39/GDT_no.39_final.pdf
A World Gold Council report on world Gold demand (20 page pdf file).

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 04:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75870)

TVA OKs Restarting Ala. Reactor

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020517/ap_on_re_us/tva_nuclear_1
Snippit:

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (AP) - The Tennessee Valley Authority board has voted to restart a mothballed Alabama nuclear reactor that is projected to power about 650,000 homes in the South. The three-member board decided to go ahead with the project Thursday despite objections from environmentalists and questions about how to pay the projected $1.8 billion cost. The board approved the restart without a funding plan.

Black Blade: Can't please some people � working to stop Global Warming with nukes and they still aren't satisfied. Hmmm�

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2002; 06:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 75871)

Nope. Frying pan ... fire.

Cavan Man

(05/17/2002; 06:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75872)

Mahonia

That sounds like a three stooges company.

Cavan Man

(05/17/2002; 06:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75873)

@SteveH

USAGOLD 75862RE: Your suspected return volley.....incoming?

RobotGuy

(05/17/2002; 07:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75874)

FLY LOONIE FLY!!

CDN$ slightly up.

The Victorian

(05/17/2002; 07:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 75875)

$ dollar dropping like a stone

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sHow loooow can she go?? After a brief rally, the US dollar seems to be dropping off a cliff in the last 24 hours. It will be interesting to see where POG ends up today.

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2002; 07:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75876)

The Victorian

I guess they'd like the Dollar's theme song to be something like Chevy's (?) "Like a Rock", but then you've just given another image to that simile.

"I dinna think ah kin hold her t'gither much longer, Cap'tn"

(sorry, somebody had to get the first Scottyism in on this New Dollar Era...)

The Victorian

(05/17/2002; 07:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75877)

MR GRESHAM

I think the dollar's illness may be beyond the capabilities of even Dr. McCoy!

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2002; 07:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 75878)

The Victorian

Ay, laddie! I think we're in Alien Territory, now...

YGM

(05/17/2002; 08:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75879)

Please A Little Help Understanding Here.....

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/histcharts.php3?cbase=US&year=1997&cpp=4∾tion=Display+ChartsWhy all the dollar index drop excitement all over various chat groups? The Dollar index was trading in the 80's and 90's all thru the latter part of the 1990's and only climbed to present hieghts over last 2-3 years....To my untrained eye/mind it's got along way to go.....NO?

goldquest

(05/17/2002; 08:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75880)

The Fed Has Become Irrelevant

http://home.flash.net/~rhmjr/index.htmlLosing control.

YGM

(05/17/2002; 09:00:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75881)

It would be Ironic...

Repeat of the Dirty 30's....After 3-4 years of drought in Canada's prairies and N central US farmbelt it appears that it's going to get worse before better. Imagine a re-occurance of the 30's dust bowl drought and 1929 all over again....How would we have a 5th great migration?...Trains are to fast to hop, the price of fuel would hinder traffic, travel and hitch-hikers looking for work....Eastern Seaboard has water shortages, California dry & fires galore, prairie drought, India heat wave over 450 dead and on it goes....By golly people better just worry about preparing for the cycles of mother nature, let alone Financial/Social Collapse....AND that's alot to ask of this "Wildly Complacent & Helpless Generation"......

Guns, Gold, Candles, Beans and a "Whole Lot More"......
Not to Mention 'Getting Fit & Healthy' so as to deal with our lot in what the future holds......."Love thy Neighbour, But keep your Gun oiled" as a friend of mine likes to say............YGM.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/17/2002; 09:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 75882)

Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

YGM

(05/17/2002; 09:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75883)

Goldquest....That last link was a keeper..Thanks & found this there..

http://home.flash.net/~rhmjr/Raging_Gold_Info-War.htmlRaging Gold Wars Article...

Trapper

(05/17/2002; 09:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75884)

YGM

Thanks for the responce. My Live small life style has served me well in the past. BB and others have stressed getting out of debt,and stocking up on some food, cash, gold & silver, topped off with the ability to protect it all. I must agree, but I would add a caveat and learn to be self sufficient. Try get a trade that you can do for barted or some wage that won't depend on the system. There is going to be a new "war" on cash. This new war will be on gold too. I'm sure you can see ruse being put in place as we write. The new national ID card is going to be the next tool for control and it will control.
One of my favorite past times is talking to the old folks and learning how they lived without todays tech. How to can meat, make soap, lard pork, plant and reap, and live without the power grid. When the ballon goes up there will be a new world and you had better be able to take care of yourself. So once again I say live small my friend.
RJ

RobotGuy

(05/17/2002; 09:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75885)

Will she break the terrible 312 barrier?

YGM

(05/17/2002; 10:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75886)

Trapper and All Interested....

http://einsys.einpgh.org:8888/MARION/ADF-2057Found a link for Richard M Bacon 5 book series "The Forgotten Arts" from Yankee Magazine/Publishing. I've had these books for many years. They're short, concise and cover most of the homestead type skills of olden days.
Money well spent. I paid about $4.50 apiece 8 yrs ago....

YGM

(05/17/2002; 10:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 75887)

Last Note.....Very Important Book...IMNSHO....

http://www.baproducts.com/savingse.htm"Saving Seeds", by Marc Rogers....Could be very important for gardening folks....Knowledge is cheap and could prove invaluble some day or hopefully will just gather dust in my bookcase....YGM

sector

(05/17/2002; 10:28:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75888)

Spartacus (5/17/02; 01:24:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 75861)

Companies at Risk for Liquidity Crisis...One May be BarrickSee...they just got what amounts to a margin from their banks call which forced them to cover about 7 million ounces of their "Premium Sales Book"

See the lastest from Bob Landis at http://www.goldensextant.com

sector

(05/17/2002; 10:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75889)

That would be a margin CALL

eom

sector

(05/17/2002; 10:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75890)

Black Blade (5/17/02; 00:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 75856) JPM/Mehta/Mahonia Gets Interesting...

Enron Paid $450,000 for an LBMA PM LicenseTherefore they traded PMs...a fact that has yet to come out.

Some media intellectual giants have questioned this conclusion. It would be like an NFL franchisee paying his dues and then NOT playing football.

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2002; 11:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75891)

sector: Bob Landis

http://www.goldensextant.com/LLCPostings2.html#anchor11425Thanks -- that was a fine, and funny, piece by Landis about Barrick.

I'd never been at all interested before in reading about Enrick -- I mean Barrick -- and he caught just the right questions and mysteries and fudgings in their books to show us what might lie ahead for the hedgers (and for us) and perhaps give us the clues that unravel much of POG's travails these past six years or so and Barrick's pivotal role in it.

(If you've got the biggest producer-hedger willing to short-sell itself down the river into insolvency, to accomplish a centrally-planned monetary goal, and enough front-runners to jump on board, thinking they'll likely be able to get off in time, why then you've got yourself a fine little bear market -- until you don't anymore...)

kludge

(05/17/2002; 11:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75892)

Trapper, YGM, all

Just wanted to second Trapper's comments that preparedness and self-sufficiency is more of a lifestyle than a hobby. If your generator and alt. fuel stove / heater has been collecting dust and cobwebs since that last pre-Y2K test then it might be a good idea to have impromptu tests of your current level of preparedness by shutting off your gas, water, and/or electricity for awhile. Learn, plan, practice, repeat.

Drive your evacuation routes during rush hour on a holiday weekend, live out of your "bug out" kits/bags for a day or two, practice your marksmanship from a variety of positions, take that CPR/first aid course again (or better yet an EMT-B or First Responder course), and as Trapper suggested learn and practice barterable skills. I'll leave out the more controversial stuff as this is really off topic anyway, but reading and planning is one thing - doing is often Another.
Have a great weekend all!
kludge

PS: Two other candidates for must-have books, Making the Best of Basics by James Stevens and a Merck manual - NOT the "home edition", the real one.

R Powell

(05/17/2002; 13:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75893)

Trapper, YGM, kludge

May we add many editions of "The Whole Earth Catelog" to your list of self-sufficiency books?
This will be a very good day for gold/silver if the XAU can close near its high. Last time I looked it was approaching 80 even with Barrick as a heavily weighted member of the group.
Okay, kids! What day is it?!! It's Friday!
Happy Weekend !!!!
Rich

Aristotle

(05/17/2002; 14:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75894)

Canuck, thanks for offering your response yesterday -- 75842

Directed by your questions and comments, I'll try to more fully elaborate on my thoughts from last evening's post.

As a refresher, I had been exploring the ins and outs of the most likely "seizure scenario" that I'd envision in the chance event that the government felt Gold to be the expedient solution to dire financial difficulties. Briefly, where I had projected the government would achieve their ends largely by establishment of a fixed official price for domestic Bullion exchanges, you asked:

"Are you suggesting that gold (bullion) will be 'fixed' at a rate that will be 'non-profitable'?"

What do you mean, "non-profitable"? For whom -- us or the government? Let's approximate a likely scenario where you bought a single ounce of Bullion next week at a rate of one ounce of Bullion at $330 per ounce, and I bought nearly an ounce of Sovereigns at approx the same price.

Eighteen months later, the unthinkable happens, and our government finds itself fighting a severe economic crisis, and we see unfold the measures that I mentioned yesterday.

To answer your question as best I can, I'd say that the government would take a look at the Gold market on that fateful day, and immediately lock the official price of Bullion to whatever the rate of the day was. Maybe $2,000 per ounce. Maybe $3,000.

Profitable? Sure, for both of us, and for the government, too. What they've just effectively done was to cap the upside price for Bullion in the domestic market (the price at which they can acquire more of it) while allowing them to benefit from total control in its profitable sale overseas as prices are expected to continue rising.

You could choose to sell or not to sell, but holding your Bullion won't gain you any more currency until such unforeseen time as the capital controls are removed. Meanwhile, my Sovereigns would continue to escalate (and probably accelerate) in price through unfettered trade within their uncapped free market.

You went on to ask:

"Are you suggesting that gold bullion is not the asset class to be investing into? Are you suggesting that the 'security' of old & ancient (and by your extension) 'non-confiscationable' coins be the investment of choice?"

Look, I'm just putting out the factors in a possible scenario that would to a reasonable thinker suggest a certain course of action.

Also please note that I didn't suggest investments in "ancient" coins. When buying Ancients, you don't get near enough of the real benefits of Gold for your money. First of all, you don't get the quantity, and you definitely don't get the liquidity during times of need.

I once had the chance to meet "Uncle Wallace." He wasn't my uncle, but he was somebody's uncle, and that's what counts. As the tale was told, with his deep pockets he went out a few years ago looking for diversifications in Gold. Some smooth talking high-pressure coin salesman said "Sure we can set you up with some Gold! But why dabble in boring old Gold when you can shoot for the stars in this one of a kind ancient Gold coin, priced to move at $95,000."

How would you like to be the guy who tells Uncle Wallace that not only did he get (practically) no Gold for his money, but he just killed his liquidity, too. Like driving a new car off the lot, no way can he sell that exotic ancient coin for anything close to what he paid. He got taken for a ride and sold a dream instead of what he went shopping for.

My advice, either sell that beast and take his lumps to recapture his access to liquidity, or else haul it out of the vault every day of his life to fully appreciate his ownership of its singular beauty -- since that's the only thing the coin can offer him by way of compensation if he keeps it.

Getting to the final point of your question, NOTHING is absolutely beyond risk of "confiscation." But we can find a good measure of safety in avoiding that which is most easily seized in practice. As I tried to convey in my prior post, Bullion lends itself to the setting of a single domestic price for any domestic selling interests. In contrast, a variety of old Gold coins with varying numismatic "charms" in the marketplace do not.

Next, you summarized the scenario nicely, saying:

"Bullion locked down.... old gold coins to trade without interference....."

Then you asked:

"What are you suggesting Aristotle, gold is dead. Long live old coins with their fiat premium?"

Heavens no, Gold is not dead. Please bear in mind that we are merely investigating a most likely scenario within a hypothetical. Yet within this hypothetical, don't you think citizens would come to view a brisk market in Sovereigns as **anything but** "gold is dead" as you've suggested?

I've another question for you. What do you mean when you say "fiat premium"? Good God, man, do you not realize that the "spot" is just a "fiat spot"?? Everything's fiat, my dear soul! So what's your point? What we'd have within this hypothetical, without all of your fancy (indignant) terms, is simply a shifting market price based on supply and demand. Likely, the market price per available old coin would greatly exceed the fixed and capped "spot" price that the government declared per ounce of Bullion. Call that difference a "fiat premium" if you must, but I fail to see any significance for your term beyond the fact that this "premium" alone would represent participation in a free market for physical Gold. A good thing, and quite necessary for "honest savings."

Your comment:

"Let me rephrase that, a one-ounce bullion wafer is 'locked down' while a 1900 double-Eagle will soar to the heavens?"

If the government artificially capped the domestic price of Gold (i.e.,"spot") thus pinning down Bullion, then any remaining trade in pre-33's would pick up where Bullion interests left off, with rising premiums for these "coin collections" reflecting the true vibrancy of the Gold market and interest in ownership that's open to upside potential.

You ask, finally, "What stamps and baseball cards do you recommend?"

Well, lemme see... I'd probably recommend a 34 cent stamp to mail your payment to a competent Gold dealer. (Scroll way down, I know you'll find one.) As for baseball cards, you'll have to inquire elsewhere 'cause that knowledge isn't in my bag of goods.

Gold. Get you some by any means, and wisely if you can. --- Aristotle

R Powell

(05/17/2002; 15:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75895)

Index numbers

Final figures
XAU 80.67 +3.39
TSEGPM 6,798.92 +84.01

Now, if someone would kindly inform POG and POS that they are seriously delinquent in keeping pace. Perhaps next week we'll see some catch-up in prices. The technical folks have hashed, discussed, rehashed and finally concurred on a four to one basis. They speculate that POG should rise $4.00 for every one point XAU advance.
How can this be determined? What was the average profit per ounce, ton or truckload when the XAU started to rise? What was the XAU at that time? What also was the POG at that time? Is the four dollars to one point ratio accurate or even close? I don't know but I believe the continuing mining company share price advances are the strongest verifiable ongoing not-at-all subtle indication of higher metal prices to come.
I also wonder how investment money can continue gravitating into mining company stock without also initiating long positions in physical. Open interest seen as a market indicator implies this may be happening, more so in gold than silver. However, every time I think the price of either is about to dive, I'm pleasantly surprised.
Remember the 1990s battlecry of the dot com-ers,
Buy the Dips!
Happy Weekend!
Rich

Cavan Man

(05/17/2002; 15:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75896)

Japan announces steel tariffs......

and joins hands with the EU.The primary problem is the current global monetary regime led by the USD. This is not mentioned. The USD does not have strong (enough) legs for the new millenium. (IMVHO)

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 15:17:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75897)

Bankruptcy filings at record levels

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/137/business/Bankruptcy_filings_at_record_levels+.shtml

Snippit:

ASHINGTON - Consumers spent so freely during the recession that record numbers found themselves in heavy debt and filed for bankruptcy. Personal bankruptcy filings rose 15.2 percent to a total of nearly 1.5 million in the 12 months ended March 31, the Administrative Office of the US Courts reported yesterday. Filings by businesses rose 10.7 percent to 39,845, including Enron's on Dec. 2.

Black Blade: It will worsen. Corporate earnings are not materializing overall and consumers are on a spending spree that they can't afford or finance by putting their homes at risk. Many will collapse under the weight of crushing debt.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 15:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75898)

ADELPHIA'S SINKING

http://www.nypost.com/business/42716.htm
Snippit:

Adelphia Communications is getting dangerously close to going under altogether and will likely lose its Nasdaq listing as quickly as it's losing top executives, sources close to the company told The Post. Sources said the only redeeming factor for the struggling company is its asset base of 5.8 million subscribers in the Adelphia system. Some of their systems may be on the block to help defray debt.

The company, which failed to make a $23 million bond interest payment yesterday, is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission for $2.3 billion in loans that were made to the company's founding family, the Rigas family.

It's also the target of an independent audit by Deloitte & Touche, which has been put on hold as the company awaits the results of an internal audit done by an Adelphia special committee. "The company is in serious trouble, and if it doesn't pass muster with this audit, you can kiss Adelphia good-bye," said the source.

Black Blade: Another scandal in the making. Soon Adelphia Comm. Will be added to the scrap heap of dishonored corporations and the employees shipped off to the growing "Bone Pile".

Interesting action on Wall Street this week. Stocks are grossly overvalued, earnings are not materialing, foriegn markets are taking action by raising tariffs against US goods, the USD is about to move below 112, debt is at record levels, etc. and yet the stock market indices are rising. Hmmm...

Mexican

(05/17/2002; 15:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 75899)

Oil falls as Russia decides quit quotas

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/0,4186,2-8_1186459,00.htmlSnippit:

London - Oil prices fell sharply on Friday when Russia said it would abandon a pact with the Opec cartel to restrict exports intended to support the market.

The decision by the world's second largest exporter opens the way for further hikes in Russian supplies even while the Middle East-dominated Opec maintains tough curbs on output.

International benchmark Brent crude oil dropped 48c to US$25.90 a barrel by mid-afternoon in London while US crude futures slid 60c to $27.35.

MX: Hombre, the only way to get it from Uzbekistan to cars in New York is by being friends with the Russians.

Mexican

(05/17/2002; 17:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 75900)

The worst bear markets tended to follow the best bull markets

In the current bear market (it's hard to believe after this week), at its low last September, the Dow was down "only" 29.7% from its bull market peak, not even as much as its 31.6% decline in the average bear market, and a long ways from its 49.4% average decline in the ten worst bear markets of the last 100 years. At its low last September, the S&P 500 was down 36% from its bull market peak, exceeding the average bear-market decline of 31.6%, but not near the market's average 49.4% decline in the ten worst bear markets. To meet the average decline of the 10 worst bear markets from their bull market peaks, the Dow would have to decline to around 5.800. The S&P 500 would have to decline to around 765.

A 49.4% decline sounds impossible? A decline of 72% in the Nasdaq also seemed impossible before it happened. But at its low of 1.425 last September the Nasdaq was down just that, 72% from its bull market peak of 5.048. That was the worst bear market for the Nasdaq ever. So just an average serious bear market decline for the Dow and S&P 500 is impossible? Don't believe it!

GO Mexican 50 Pesos Gold Coins!
GO Mexican Libertad Silver Coins!

Un saludo muy cordial.

MX

Don't forget -> Margaritas forever...

TownCrier

(05/17/2002; 18:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 75901)

A case for "gold today"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020517/markets_emergingdebt_1.htmlExcerpts:
NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) - Emerging market debt drifted lower on Friday, sunk by looming political and economic concerns in market heavyweight Brazil and uncertainty over the stability of Turkey's government because of the prime minister's hospitalization.

..."I think people are a little nervous about what could happen over the weekend" on the political front, said one emerging market trader.
-------(click URL for article)----------

Bottom line: gold IS the bottom line, one you can stand on to keep your head above water when all else founders.

R.

TownCrier

(05/17/2002; 19:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 75902)

Buying gold

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020517/markets_precious_3.htmlExcerpts:
NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - COMEX gold ended firmer on Friday as undaunted commodity funds kept on buying while the dollar skidded to new seven-month lows, making bullion look more affordable to overseas investors in local currency terms.

-------(click URL for article)----------

Bottom line: COMEX contracts notwithstanding, when it comes to physical gold, the fact that it might get priced upwards beyond your own bargain-shopping level of purchasing interest doesn't mean the world stops buying when you do. There are as many different reasons to own and hold the yellow as there are currencies and people in the world.

Bear that in mind.

R.

sector

(05/17/2002; 19:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75903)

Merrill Lynch...Torpedoed

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3NEOYBC1D&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Merrill Lynch suffers triple blow

By Joshua Chaffin in New York and Tony Tassell in London
Published: May 17 2002 18:36 | Last Updated: May 17 2002 18:45

Merrill Lynch suffered a triple blow on Friday as a ratings agency cut its credit rating, a UK pension fund fired its asset management division and it abandoned a highly-touted joint venture with HSBC bank to manage money for affluent clients.

The setbacks come as the largest US brokerage is already reeling from a series of investigations by the New York attorney general and the Securities and Exchange Commission into the conduct of its internet analysts during the height of the bull market.

Fitch, the ratings agency, dropped Merrill's long-term credit rating one notch on friday to 'AA-', and warned that its outlook on the company remained negative.

Fitch noted that Merrill was suffering from the downturn in capital markets and shrinking margins as commerical banks cut into its investment banking turf. It said European operations had failed to pick up the slack.

The ratings agency also pointed to the damaging investigations in offering its grim assessment.

"Regardless of the outcome, the press on their firm has been negative enough that it could impact their retail business," said Eileen Fahey, Fitch's financial services analyst. "Certainly there will be knock-on lawsuits and civil litigation."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The future is bleak for brokerages. They will be held in the same public contempt as tobacco firms...and suffer the same [Hundreds of $USD Billions] tort feeding frenzy.

I don't know who has a worse media reputation Cardinal Law or Merrill's CEO, Komansky.

Cavan Man

(05/17/2002; 19:47:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75904)

Japan Inc.

Japan imposes retaliatory tariffs on US steel
By Ken Hijino in Tokyo and FT.com staff
Published: May 16 2002 12:11 | Last Updated: May 17 2002 15:04

Japan on Friday notified the World Trade Organisation of its decision to impose sanctions worth $4.88m in retaliation for US duties on steel imports.

This is the first time Japan has taken such retaliatory action. It is also likely to increase tensions with Washington, which has been saying that early retaliation would violate WTO rules.

The widely expected decision came after Washington rebuffed Tokyo's last-minute plea for compensation for its tariffs.

The notification follows the European Union's decision to notify the WTO of a range of US products, including steel, textiles, and fruit, worth E378m ($345m) on which it plans to impose sanctions.

Japan is set to implement these tariffs from June 18, 30 days after notification, unless Washington withdraws its measures or offers compensation for trade lost.

Tokyo says that the US decision to increase steel tariffs by up to 30 per cent has already cost its steel industry $138m.

The Japanese tariffs correspond to the duties which the US will impose on flat sheet steel plates. Tokyo says the US duties are illegal because American imports of these products have fallen sharply in recent years.

Japan will also submit a longer list worth $123.4m to be implemented if the trade organisation rules against the US measures next year.

The EU has submitted a similar longer list, worth E606m on the same basis.

Japan imported $182m of steel from the US in 2001, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation.

Cavan Man

(05/17/2002; 20:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75905)

Japanese Tariffs

Considering the US is probably Japan's most important export market (best customer), they must be rather upset.

Ozzie

(05/17/2002; 20:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75906)

Off topic.....Never had the....

...opportunity to say this...but... I just saw 'The Good...The Bad...The Ugly'.....for the 1000th time....and Eli Wallach is the most forgotten actor in Hollywood.

Aragorn III

(05/17/2002; 21:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75907)

Ozzie...no one has forgotten Tuco. "You see in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend... those with loaded guns... and those who dig. You dig".

"Where?"

"Here".

"Un-K-K-... un-K... there's no name on it!"

. . . skip forward, find gold.

"Blondie!... it's all ours Blondie!"

. . . sees noose.

"You're jokin' Blondie. You wouldn't... you wouldn't play a joke on me like that".

. . . skip forward, Tuco balancing precariously with an eye on the prize.

"Bloooooondie! Son of a ... Blondie".

. . . skip forward, free at last!

"Hey Blond! You know what you are?!! Just a dirty son of a %%%%%%!!!"

No more! Let us thank Mr. Kosares for keeping a show fit for our families!

Take comfort, one has forgotten "Tuco". A man of wealth!! ("Well now, seems just like old times. Four for you. And four... four for me".) When ever have you seen "four" count for so much! We will maybe talk with others who have walked away with as much? They are few and far between. And worth talking to!

got gold?

sector

(05/17/2002; 21:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 75908)

Speaking of Ugly...

Japan's Banks...Hit by an Ugly Stick
Japan's banking challenge

TOKYO - Japan's financial system will become unstable again if major banks fail to strengthen their capital bases, analysts fear.

Major banks would see their net worth fall below zero, with liabilities exceeding assets if the support of public fund injections and deferred tax accounting is factored out, according to the Japan Centre for Economic Research.

Japan's seven major banking groups all recorded red ink in the fiscal year ended March 2002 as they incurred huge losses to deal with bad loans. They also posted large appraisal losses on cross-shareholdings.

The Japanese banking industry has been reorganized into five banking groups and two independent banks. The five banking groups are Mizuho Financial Group, UFJ Group, Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group, the Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp group and the Daiwa-Asahi Bank group. The two independent banks are Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co and Chuo Mitsui Trust & Banking Co.

Major banks had to classify many of their loans as non-performing because many companies saw financial conditions deteriorate, reflecting the nation's sluggish economy. Mitsubishi Tokyo, for example, recorded a loss of more than 600 billion yen to deal with bad loans in fiscal 2001, compared with the 480 billion yen estimated initially. Sumitomo Trust posted a loss of 100 billion yen, compared with an initial projection of 80 billion yen ($US629 million).

Although the overall Japanese stock market recovered slightly toward the end of March 2002, the prices of bank stocks declined sharply. As a result, major banks had to post huge appraisal losses on their cross-shareholdings.

In a bid to increase revenues, major banks plan to step up efforts to revamp their lending practices to better reflect the financial conditions of prospective corporate borrowers. Sumitomo Mitsui, for example, plans to introduce a new lending system under which borrowers are classified into five categories to determine loan rates.

Major banks face an urgent need to raise revenues, as they will continue to incur losses in dealing with bad loans. But banks' moves to increase the efficiency of lending may further deteriorate financial standings at smaller companies. If bankruptcies of smaller firms increase, banks will be forced to classify even more loans as non-performing.
+++++++++++++++++++++
As bankruptcies roll, depositors will suffer the loss of those funds above 85,000.
That will trigger media stories and will trigger a rush to gold.

There are $620 Billion in ununsured deposits, mostly from the elderly 60s and 70s age group. That buys a lot of kilo bars.

The Invisible Hand

(05/17/2002; 21:57:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75909)

Welcome home Aragorn III

Yeah, welcome back.

Gandalf the White

(05/17/2002; 22:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75910)

"Stick around", KING Aragorn III

The Hobbits are happy to see you again.
<;-)

YGM

(05/17/2002; 22:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75911)

The Shape of Things to Come...Multi Priced Gold Values

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/salinas052002.htmlEXCERPT:

THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME

Hugo Salinas Price

It seems that there are two different possible types of dollar devaluation.

One is a coordinated devaluation, where the big players all agree on a new dollar value in terms of their own currencies. This new value would be hammered out behind closed doors - and ratified later at a meeting of the G-7.

It appears to me, from reading what we have all been reading on the subject of the problems in Europe and in Japan, and not to mention those of the inscrutable Chinese, that it would be extremely difficult for the major players in the world economy to arrive at any agreement to a substantial devaluation of the dollar in order to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, running at some $400 billion a year. The rest of the world is hooked on exports to the U.S. Consequently, reducing its trade surplus means killing off a substantial percentage of exports to the U.S. To put it mildly it seems to me very difficult for a group of nations to agree to that.

So, this first type of devaluation, a concerted and agreed-to devaluation, is hardly possible.

The second type of devaluation is your good old chaotic, traumatic devaluation, the kind that destroys the lives of enormous numbers of innocent citizens. The rest of the world has seen plenty of these devaluations in the last 25 years, but the U.S. has not. The American people do not understand what devaluation means, because they have not physically suffered from the phenomenon�as yet.

A devaluation of the dollar means the dollar will be worth less in terms of most of the other currencies in the world.

There is only one way that such a devaluation can occur: and that is, with regard to a superior currency, in which all currencies, including the dollar, are denominated. And that superior currency (the numeraire as it used to be called) is, of course, gold.

Cont'd......

Golden Bear

(05/17/2002; 22:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75912)

And where we stand currently...an excellent summary.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=2068Great reading, and good for a laugh, just in case you all were taking this economic stuff seriously ;)

Cheers.

Golden Bear

(05/17/2002; 22:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75913)

I just noticed this on that previous link...

"....an avocational exercise the better to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it...."

GB: How apt....

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")

(05/17/2002; 22:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75914)

The Bunk of England

http://rense.com/politics4/bank.htmoff the Yahoo BGO message board, says the BOE gold sales were of stolen Russian mob gold. I believe it.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 23:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75915)

Friday's Stock Market WrapUp - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Hope & Hype This Week

Snippit:

It was another week for the financial markets filled with hope and great expectations. "Things are only going to get better" seemed to be the mantra of the week. While hope permeated the financial markets, the actual economic and financial facts presented a different story. If things were going to get better, you would have never known it from the financial reports given by companies or the government. Layoffs continue at a brisk pace with BellSouth announcing on Friday that it plans to layoff 4,000-5,000 workers and jobless claims rose to 418,000. The number of people receiving state jobless benefits leaped by 82,000 to 3.9 million, a record not seen since April 1983. This figure doesn't include an additional 1.3 million unemployed workers receiving extended benefits under a federal program. If there is going to be a recovery, it looks like it will be a jobless and profitless one.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows, crushing consumer and corporate debt is at record levels, bankruptcies are rising, corporate earnings have failed to materialize, etc. In a word � "GRIM"

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 23:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 75916)

Aurion Gold to continue cutting hedge book

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B1D5A718E%2DC691%2D4782%2D9D89%2D94B386AD4D36%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold∝erty=word&
Snippit:

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - Australia's largest gold producer Aurion Gold Ltd (AOR) said on Friday it will continue to reduce its hedge book in order to take advantage of higher market prices.

"We are working on our hedge book to reduce positions over time. We will continue to manage this and drop it to lower levels," Aurion Gold's general manager, Rob Dougall told reporters.

Dougall said the company planned to reduce its forward sales exposure to 60 percent from 86 percent of its total reserves over the next two years. It will do this by delivering gold into its hedge book and by increasing its reserves.

Black Blade: 86% of total reserves!? Who in their right mind would invest in such trash? This unwinding of the Aurion hedge book is too little too late. Forget it - This company is toast.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 23:46:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75917)

Should Investors Pan For Gold

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B89F15BA7%2D3594%2D472C%2D878E%2D10127F30DC61%7D&siteid=mktw
Gold's glimmer

Snippit:

It's not surprising that gold is gaining favor. The malaise in the broad market and tensions in the Middle East spurred a flight to safer havens, while a weakening U.S. dollar makes it less expensive to buy gold since it's the currency in which the metal is denominated.

Gold producers, meanwhile, are unwinding hedge-book positions. When they hedge, they sell gold today for future delivery and use the proceeds to pay for mining development. They're essentially betting that when the time comes to deliver gold, prices will be lower due to an increase in supply. By unwinding positions, they're increasing demand for gold, which is propping up prices.

Supply constraints also are at work. In 1999, 15 European central banks agreed to limit gold sales to 400 tons a year for five years after auctions had pummeled gold prices. With gold at low prices for a sustained period of time - hitting a $250 nadir three years ago - miners haven't been too encouraged to step up production. Gold "has got to rise to at least $325 and stay above this level for years for gold producers to start investing again," said Adam Graf, an associate analyst at Bear Stearns.

While overall gold demand hasn't picked up strongly, Japanese investors are buying more as they remain gripped in a downtrodden economy, Moore said. "Supply is fairly tight," the hedge fund manager said.

Panning for more gold

Given current conditions, Moore said he believes gold prices could easily go up another 10 percent and a two-to-five-year rally could be sustained.

Black Blade: The USD is sinking as world currencies race to have the weaker currency. Why? Simply put � to help economies whose companies depend on exports. Japan has trashed the Yen to help exports. Japan is bankrupts and living on borrowed time (much like Argentina). The USD is failing cash creation is at a record high and foreign investors are bailing from the US markets and bonds. It isn't hard to see the writing on the wall.

Black Blade

(05/17/2002; 23:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75918)

BellSouth to Cut Up to 5,000 Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020517/telecoms_bellsouth_jobs_2.htmlSnippit:

ATLANTA (Reuters) - BellSouth Corp. (NYSE:BLS), the No. 3 U.S. local telephone company, said on Friday it will cut 4,000 to 5,000 management and union jobs to reduce costs in response to a slow economy, increased competition and pricing pressures.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.

Tapper Light

(05/18/2002; 02:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 75919)

House bill targets 1872 mining law

According to an Associated Press article by Christopher Thorne, this bill would require royalty payments for the first time on hardrock mining operations in the west. The bill would impose royalties and strict environmental oversight over mining on public lands. The bill is co-sponsered by Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., Jay Inslee,D-Wash., and Christopher Shays, R-Conn. "The mining industry has the biggest sweetheart deal in the country", Shays said.
The article also states that the Bush administration has indicated that it would support collecting royalties from mining companies. Representatives from the industry said they would also agree to royalties but not at the levels of the Rahall-Shays-Inslee bill.
----------

The environmental movement pushed a bill similar to this one about ten years ago and it was defeated. This time it seems to have more broad based support. I wonder if it is because they see much higher prices for gold and other mined commodities. Once the legislation is in place, it is much easier to raise the royalty percentage to fit a new reality. Could this be the groundwork for what FOA discussed in regards to the effect windfall profit taxes or royalty payments would have on mining shares?
Tapper Light

Black Blade

(05/18/2002; 04:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 75920)

Rogue Waves & Standard Deviations - Part 2

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Gearing in Gold - Barrick Gold

Another example of a company that has become highly leveraged is Barrick Gold. The company is one of the largest hedgers of gold and silver in the mining industry. Barrick is known for its hedging operations in gold and in silver. Recently, a $23 price movement of gold turned Barrick's hedge book from positive to negative in the blink of an eye. The company reported a $46 million profit for Q1. The real number should be $437 million when you take into consideration the loss in the company's hedge book from Q4 of last year. At that time, the company's hedge book was in the black by $356 million. As of the end of Q1 of this year, the hedge book was negative by $127 million -- a change of $483 million from the previous quarter.

Gearing in Silver

Various examples exist today of markets, companies or hedge funds that are highly geared. Some of the most ominous are J.P. Morgan Chase, Barrick Gold, and the silver short position on the COMEX. The net silver short position of commercials on the COMEX is 45,000 contracts or roughly 225 million ounces of silver sold short. The COMEX has only 103 million ounces available in its warehouses. Of that 103 million ounces, 32 million are eligible, but not yet registered and available for delivery. In other words, the short position is three and half times greater than ready supply should investors suddenly demand delivery of physical silver.

Gearing in Derivatives - J P Morgan Chase

Another example of a company that has become highly geared is J.P. Morgan Chase. According to the recent OCC Derivatives Fact Sheet report, the bank held $23.5 trillion in notional value in derivative contracts as of December 31st, 2001. Those contracts were backed by only $693.6 billion in assets and only $41.1 billion in equity. In terms of the bank's assets, J.P. Morgan Chase has implied leverage of 34 times its asset base ($23.520 trillion divided by $693.6 billion in assets). However, the bulk of those assets of $693.6 billion don't belong to the bank. The bank has only $41.1 billion in equity to cover any losses that might occur because of holding those derivative contracts. In this case, it is the bank's equity that backs the derivatives which means the bank's real leverage is 573 times. That is insane! In his testimony before the Senate, Professor Frank Partnoy said that Enron made LTCM look like a lemonade stand. If Enron made LTCM look like a lemonade stand, then JPMC makes Enron look like your kid's Christmas Club Fund at your local bank.

Black Blade: Some "Interesting" points in Puplava's "Storm Watch" this week. We do live in "Interesting Times".

Black Blade

(05/18/2002; 04:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 75921)

Gold demand surges by 38pc

http://www.dawn.com/2002/05/18/ebr7.htm
Snippit:

KARACHI, May 17: Pakistan's gold demand in first quarter (January-March) 2002 was estimated at 41 tons - 38 per cent higher as compared to same period of 2001. Inflows of foreign aid following the September 11 incident continued to boost income and spending, underpinning gold purchases, says a press release of the World Gold Council (WGC).

The WGC said the increase in overall demand was also strongly supported by the wedding season before the start of Muharram. It may be mentioned here that the gold dealers in Pakistan have been continuously portraying a dismal picture of gold demand and its sales, saying the demand has been at the low ebb.

Black Blade: Foreign aid underpins Gold purchases? I bet that was an unintended consequence. The US Government hates Gold and now foreign is leading to increase Gold purchases. Hmmm�

Joanne

(05/18/2002; 05:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75922)

Trying to work out Plan B

Alright, if the US caps the price of gold at say $1,000, I understand that this will not stop gold rising in Europe (Belgian?). I'm in Canada so am wondering if there is any way to take advantage of this situation or am I (as usual) subject to the whims of the US. If so, how is this done? I'm assuming you don't get on a plane these days carrying a bag of gold bars. I bought my gold at the Royal Bank and so presume they will buy it back (after charging me (hefty?) assay fees. Canuck, anybody else, what is your game plan? (Don't assume there's anybody at my bank informed enough to answer these questions!)

Cavan Man

(05/18/2002; 06:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75923)

US:EU

Lay off US Powell tells Europeans

Julian Borger in Washington
Saturday May 18, 2002
The Guardian

The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, yesterday delivered a sharp attack on European political leaders, accusing them of constant "bashing" of US actions in the war on terrorism.
Just days before President George Bush sets off on a crucial tour of several European capitals, Mr Powell claimed that contrary to the dominant European viewpoint, US foreign policy under Mr Bush had been a resounding success.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian, he pointed to the imminent enlargement of Nato around the borders of Russia and Moscow's acquiescence in the proposed US National Missile Defence (NMD) system as positive achievements that flowed directly from America's determined stand.

The secretary of state's criticism is all the more pointed bearing in mind that he is usually regarded as the most Europe-friendly figure within the Bush administration. Bluntly, he told his detractors across the Atlantic that European outrage over President Bush's "axis of evil" speech in January, seen by many observers as marking the start of a dramatic decline in US-European relations, had been misplaced.

"The president said 'axis of evil' and it was amazing what happened after that in terms of the criticism that came our way," Mr Powell argued. "The president came up with a clever way of capturing them all and guess what - the North Koreans now want to talk to us. The Iraqis are trying to pretend that they're behaving better."

The president, accompanied by Mr Powell, goes to Europe at a time of considerable transatlantic distrust between the US and its European allies over what Europe believes is increasing American unilateralism, and what the US sees as a lack of European resolve in dealing with terrorism.

The extent of ill-feeling has been illustrated in the US by a number of harshly worded attacks on Europe in the press, including accusations of anti-semitism. Mr Powell said the rise of anti-European sentiments was partly explained by anti-Americanism in Europe.

"To some extent it reflects the fact that we get bashed all the time. I think it may be something of a counter to the speed with which Europe always finds fault - some in Europe," Mr Powell said.

"There are some in Europe who are quick to find fault with any position that the United States might take that we believe is a correct, principled position ... so I think there is something of a reverse spin coming back on the rhetoric."

Further evidence of the growing rift between the US and Europe came last night when the French president, Jacques Chirac, tore into what he called American "unilateralism". In one of his most hard-hitting indictments of the Bush administration, Mr Chirac said its recent decisions to impose steel tariffs and raise farm subsidies would harm the world's poorest nations.

Speaking at the end of a European Union summit with Latin American leaders in Madrid, Mr Chirac said that what the US was giving to developing countries in aid, it was now taking back in the form of tariffs.

Mr Powell added to his critique of Europe by saying that Moscow's acceptance of NMD and Washington's withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty (on June 13), showed that European predictions of global chaos as a result were misplaced. "The ABM treaty is about to lapse. The geo-strategic situation is not collapsing and no arms race is breaking out."

He dismissed much of the European criticism as intellectual "churning" and said the transatlantic relationship was fundamentally strong. He insisted that the experience of the Afghan war demonstrated that Nato still had an important function.

He said 14 Nato members were involved in Afghanistan, and when it was suggested that that role could be a "token" of cooperation, Mr Powell replied "Tell that to the British troops."

mikal

(05/18/2002; 07:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75924)

@Joanne

Good morning. I live very close to Canada, and purchased Canadian coins there and locally. I have met many US collectors of Canadian coins. Rest assured there will be places, new and old, at which to exchange your holdings. During the '40's, '50's, and '60's in most of the US, there were discreet over-the-counter transactions at antique stores, jewelry stores, coin shops, and pawn shops, as well as at coin shows, gun shows, flea markets, and garage sales. If necessary, such trades were done after-hours or in backrooms. The coin market is doing extremely well this year, in part as a diversionary hobby and alternative investment. Many dealers report the highest sales and trading activity in many years! An official cap on gold's price, while unlikely, could change from say, $2,000 to $5,000, to increase compliance, so holding would be very wise, if a trade could not be done off the books. Guerrilla capitalism/Underground economy there are how-to books and web pages on the subject as a last resort.

Joanne

(05/18/2002; 07:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75925)

Mikal

Many thanks.

mikal

(05/18/2002; 07:55:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75926)

@Joanne

Widely traded gold bars don't require assaying. They are identified/stamped and hallmarked with serial number, manufacturer, troy weight, fineness, and optional assayer identity and certificate. Some of these are Credit-Suisse, Englehard, Liberty Mini- and Maxi-Grams. Assaying can be done by a competent coin or jewelry dealer if necessary, instead of a bank.

mikal

(05/18/2002; 07:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75927)

@Joanne-correction

Below should be: "Many widely traded gold bars..." Thank you!

Joanne

(05/18/2002; 08:10:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75928)

Mikal

Good to know.

Belgian

(05/18/2002; 08:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75929)

Capping POG at 1.000 $ >>> ??? (Joanne)

Ding Doing...another price-target (first 600$ and now the zone-1.000$) out of the blue, for the valuable precious. My extremely simple answer, remains the same : Spacial amounts (and increasing ferociously at more than 6% per annum) of *DEBT* paper confetti, against 144.000 tonnes of Physical (increasing 2% per annum). But in fact it is not the 144.000 tonnes that have to be taken into account but only the amount of 32.000 tonnes of official reserve-Gold !

DEBT and a CONTRACTING GLOBAL ECONOMY (or more artificial expansion) are the death spiral.
Whatever choice (option) that will be made (taken) to get out of this deadly spin, will inevitably reflect on VOG !
FREE GOLD (Golden spiral) means that there will not / cannot be an *imposed* arbitrary price on Gold.

To believe that everything can be *managed* at infinitum is a bit naive imho. All (almost all) Gold-Observers are at a complete loss, about Gold's intrinsic Value to be reflected in a "price". I don't pretend to have the answer myself but taking the huge and fast growing dis-proportions into discount...POG (VOG) is tremendous and at least (minimum) 4 figures (zeros-?). The transition into 2 (relatively) new currencies (euro-new dollar) is a MAJOR event ! The shocking and fundamental reasons why this transition *MUST* take place will one day be grasped by a very broad (international)public. Gold, still the second largest (monetary) reserve
cannot be kept quasi neutral for another arbitrary period.
The recent 70 years of modern Gold-History, hasn't run to its end ! On the contrary !

Confiscate, cap or Taxe, Gold as much as you want...it will break free, proportional to the managerial forces, trying to lock it up further. US citizens will never accept to be excluded from a Free Gold bonanza, happening worldwide.
There are limits on the patriotic demands (future sufferings) from 260 million free americans.

5 Billion people on this globe are eagerly waiting to participate in the prosperity of the present 1 Billion very lucky minority. The (colonizing) dollar as we know it today, stands in their way of achieving that goal. Something BIG has to break here. We are already in overtime.
The "protectionistic" (steel/farming) reflexes are evidence of the rotting proces.

This time, the Gold-reserve holders will expose what happened with Gold in the past 30/70 years. It will be in their interest to do so. A broader public will realize what and why it happened and therefore set Gold Free as a consequential conclusion. Who can set a final price on this kind of proces ? So many other (non reserve) tangibles, managed to break free, periodically or permanent, from manipulative management (price cappings). Gold is unique and universally recognized. How can the coming Gold stampede / rush, possibly, have a price-target ?

It is exactly because *Gold* cannot be capped (contained) so easely, that all the past (concerted) efforts have been (still are = ?) so drastic. 8.100 tonnes of US-Goldreserves are not going to hold the Gold dike break when time has come for setting it Free. It is not only Euroland with the euro, but another few Billion people, that are striving.

Past 3 days, a handfull of US friends stayed here and educated me on their particular vieuw(s) on the world as it evolves. I learned a lot and got some deep insights into these different attitudes (and dogmas). Nice confirmation on what I already intuitively suspected and expressed here.
But who am I to speak so affirmative ? Promis to change any ppast idea when arguments forces me to do so.

MO VER MEG

(05/18/2002; 08:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75930)

(No Subject)

I read about a congressional bill requiring more complete disclosure by the government with respect to gold dealings. Can anyone help me identify it? Thanks

sector

(05/18/2002; 09:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 75931)

What Jim Puplava [And lots of Financial Folks] Miss

"If Enron made LTCM look like a lemonade stand, then JPMC makes Enron look like your kid's Christmas Club Fund at your local bank"He states the obvious and misses the truth when he sees only $41 Billion in equity to cover $23.5 Trillion in derivatives.

The truth is that the $23.5 Trillion bet is already covered because there is a minimal risk [Of rising interest rates needed to protect a falling dollar] due to a rigged gold market. So the bank need not follow the conventional rules of "Risk management". In other words, the $41 Billion is backing for the GOLD manipulation that also covers them for their other derivatives.

All this worked just fine until JPM discovered that they don't have enough physical to keep going. As Bill Murphy and his "Deep Throat" source indicates, the cabal used bogus overstated gold reserve numbers and have come up a cropper. This is why Dinsa Mehta [JPMs head gold derivatives gunslinger] was fired [Actually he is being made a scapegoat].

There are increasing indications [But not yet conclusive] from other sources that substantially ALL of the United States gold bullion reserves have been loaned out to a long list of collaborators and then sold to suppress the gold price.

nickel62

(05/18/2002; 09:05:34 MDT - Msg ID: 75932)

Musings on Barrick Gold and the excellent article by Reg Howe...

The gist of the Reginald Howe piece puts the Barrick hedge program clearly in the spotlight. It is after all a pool of proceeds derived from selling gold short in the market and then simply compounding the proceeds into the distant future using the magic of compound interest to make the gold "sales" look somehow impressive. The reality is that the entire process depends upon the ability to borrow gold cheaply and invest dearly. Both of those capabilities are waning rapidly. Barrick is loudly boasting about winning yesterdays war with a heavy 18 million ounce hedge program that is no longer delivering anything positive to the shareholders of Barrick. The mirage of the premium sale price is falling under more and more scrutiny of the investment community and it's financial obfuscation is becoming all the more apparent as each piece of the complex financial constructs become understood. The recalcitrant attitude of the Barrick hedgers in the face of a clearly changing bull market in gold is unusual and most likely belies the fact that Barrick can not cover and is trapped in it's own financial construction. Shorting your own product to invest the proceeds in bonds doesn't sound quite as impressive with gold no longer declining and the US dollar weakening significantly.

nickel62

(05/18/2002; 09:10:22 MDT - Msg ID: 75933)

Barrick and what they are really doing!

Put quite simply the Barrick hedge book alone represents 18 million ounces of future spot market buying pressure. Either directly in an attempt to cover the hedges in the spot market or by withdrawing that amount of gold from the future spot deliveries. Multiply that number by the other brain dead hedgers like Placer Dome, Ashanti, and the Australian nut case gold miners and you have a very powerful market dynamics that can be exploited by those who understand it.

It is important to understand that they are not really selling above market price...it is the way they account for it. They sell at spot market price, gold they have borrowed from a large holder of gold reserves (generally a central bank that has gold bars sitting in a vault to back up their currency) This gold is then taken from the central bank vault and sold in the spot market. An interesting aside is that the accounting of central bank reserves dictated by the IMF allows the central bank to lend the gold that is then sold in the spot market and made into jewelry or whatever, and the central bank can still keep it on it's financial statement as if the gold bars were still there, just "leased" yes that is correct, they actually do that) Well then the borrowed gold is sold and the cash proceeds are used to buy US treasury notes of a five year maturity. The 5% per year interest that Barrick will receive on the treasuries is then compounded into the future and added to the original spot market price they got for selling the borrowed gold and claimed as the "sale" price, today. Yes that is actually what they are doing. In fact the sale price is not anything other than the accounting estimate of how much they will earn on the cash balance for a period of time into the future that they determine. That is the significance of their claims about being able to defer the delivery or closing of the contract up to fifteen years into the future, it allows their accountants to play more games with how long the 5% will be compounded and therefore claim an even higher current "sale price". I know it sounds too unbelievable to conceive of but that is exactly what they are doing. IF more shareholders knew exactly what was going on they would demand much more honesty in the reporting. But Barrick is hiding behind the financial mumbo jumbo and concealing the true nature of the process from the shareholders who are not privy to the nature of exactly what they are doing.

nickel62

(05/18/2002; 09:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75934)

Barrick and the accounting magic of claiming forward compound interest as a "sale price" today!

Just to clarify what I just said. Barrick sells an ounce of borrowed gold today at $312 and invests in a five-year US Treasury note yielding 5% to maturity in May of 2007. That is 5% compounded for five years, which allows them to claim a "sale" price of $398/ounce!!!!!!!!! Yes that is as simple as it is...The whole process is bullshit unless you somehow think they are doing something else for you...they aren't it is just they are more aggressive about dressing it up...PERIOD. The plan looked somewhat feasible in a constantly declining market but is absurd in a rising gold market...It is market manipulation (through the selling of additional gold into the spot market when the short is established) and then just plain bs when the books claim that they got a "premium" which is nothing more then the compounding of the proceeds they got from shorting their own product. The game came about because they wanted to push the spot price of gold lower to take out the other competitors and it happened to work with the big picture financial interests of the world financial community. Namely a lower gold price meant that the US Treasury could inflate the value of the US dollar and our trading partners went along with it because it allowed them to export to the US market with a low currency price for their production and stimulate economic activity in their domestic markets. The US gets to print money with no perception in the financial markets of the amount being excessive because the US dollar is able to show a rising trend against it's historical benchmark of gold and therefore there is no inflation, and we can continue to inflate the US dollar money supply almost without check. Nice game if you can pull it off. Barrick of course is just a minor player in this drama, but their participation is critical if you wanted to ensure that the price of gold would continue under pressure.

nickel62

(05/18/2002; 09:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75935)

The light of day will set us free...Barrick can not stand the clarity of common sense!

In a direct sense they could not claim this high sale price if the gold wasn't borrowed. If they just sold their gold in the spot market they would have to report that and then if they wanted to invest in US treasury notes they would simply show that as an asset on the balance sheet and recognize the marked to market value of the interest payments and the bonds. But this way they get to claim that they have gotten a higher price for their product. Complete bullshit and nothing more then an accounting trick. Once it is exposed it is obviously nothing more then taking advantage of a loophole in the FASB accounting regulations. Much like the absurdity of being able to recognize both sides of energy trade as "revenue" allowed Enron to rapidly inflate their reported revenue growth. This is how Enron ever got to be able to claim they were the 7th largest corporation in the United States. They were working an accounting loophole and the bankers and accountants, JP Morgan/Chase, Barrack's bankers by the way, and the now infamous Arthur Anderson, were the only ones who knew they were cooking the numbers, and they shut up about it so they could sell more bonds, stocks and whatever, or charge them 50 million a year in accounting fees. The process of accounting for both sides of an energy transaction as your revenue is analogous to a stock broking firm trading a 1000 shares of a $100 stock and claiming not the commission as their revenue but the sum of the value of the stock sold and bought in the transaction, i.e. not $35 but rather 1000 X $100 = $100,000 for the sale and $100,000 for the buy...that is what made Enron's revenues grow so spectacularly. $200,000 or revenue on a trade that really under common sense accounting would have produced only $35 of revenue for the brokerage firm...And it was allowed to continue for years... until it came under the light of day and collapsed taking the Enron employees and investors with it.

Mr Gresham

(05/18/2002; 09:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75936)

Good Ed Bugos: Inefficient Markets

http://www.goldenbar.com/Briefs/14May02Brief.htmGives some depth to the psychology perspective -- how what is unspeakable during the boom on the way up (boiler-room-type stock pushing, gold manipulation) becomes commonplace knowledge and yesterday's news once the bubble pops. In other words, if you wait for everyone else to know something (or to say out loud what they already know, once it becomes acceptable), you'll miss the boat.

It's the psychology, stupid.

Mr Gresham

(05/18/2002; 10:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75937)

nickel62

http://www.goldensextant.com/LLCPostings2.html#anchor11425Good posts! Bob Landis made the Enrick story clear, and you've brought to an even finer point. Amazing the boldness of swindlers these days, eh?

Looks like, whichever way it jiggles from here, we're just gonna have to learn to keep those canary feathers wiped away from our mouths, aren't we?

The Invisible Hand

(05/18/2002; 10:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 75938)

Germans want D-mark back

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,196835,00.htmlGermany's weekly Der Spiegel says that 54 percent of the Germans want the D-mark back, while only 37 percent could not accept this return. The remaining 9 percent are undecided.

rsjacksr

(05/18/2002; 10:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75939)

JAMES SINCLAIR'S LETTER TO NEWMONT MINING

I've been patiently waiting for someone else, normally Chris Powell, to post a letter by James Sinclair to Newmont Chairman Ronald Cambre. Since no one has taken the opportunity , I guess I'll have to quit lurking and add to the forum. There is absolutely nothing like some else asking questions to show me how ignorant I am. And just when I thought it was safe to go out.
The letter, posted by GATA, is as follows:

JAMES SINCLAIR'S LETTER TO NEWMONT MINING

May 15, 2002

Ronald Cambre, Chairman.
Newmont Mining Corp
Denver, Colorado

Dear Mr. Cambre:Allow me to introduce myself. I am James Sinclair, chairman and CEO of Tan Range Exploration, TNX on the Toronto Stock Exchange. I was chairman of Sutton Resources from 1989 to 1995, when I personally funded that company into the development of the Bulyanhulu property before its sale to Barrick Gold. I have written three books on commercial metals, precious metals, and economics. I am enclosing my last book "Boom, Insights, and Visions into Wealth Creation in the 21st Century." I am also enclosing an article from Forbes magazine written in December 2001 reviewing my career in gold.

My background prior to 1989 was as the owner and operator of metals trading, commodity clearing, and metals arbitrage group firm known as the Sinclair Group. Some consider me a leader in the understanding of the economics and markets for gold. The reason for my letter is to alert you to certain characteristics of the present hedging market in derivatives that might not have been outlined yet to the head office of Newmont. I am one of the few who have hands-on practical knowledge of the derivative market. I am not a Harvard mathematics professor or a computer specialist. I am a derivatives trader who knows the difference between a loss and a gain. As a stockholder of Newmont I believe that we need to expunge all those derivative contracts from our books immediately. Many were acquired as the product of the desire for non-recourse development loans during the long gold bear market. If these are contractually required, may I suggest two alternatives. One is to go recourse on the loans so that the derivatives can be lifted. The second alternative is to do a convertible bond financing and replace the development loans you have acquired as a result of your acquisition of a too-aggressive Australian hedging gold producer.I am primarily concerned about counterparty risk on these arrangements as they have no clearinghouse facility. A clearinghouse facility requires the writer of a derivative to pay in if the market moves against him, thereby reasonably guaranteeing the financial performance of the contract. These obligations to you have no such facility and are therefore only promises to pay. I am extremely worried about our industry. As an example, Ashanti has a $77 million loss on its hedge book at $303 gold. At the recent high of $315, Ashanti was BROKE. The travesty is that the gold banks are financing these huge losses into the future, assuming that the present strength in gold is transitory. I believe that it is a new bull market. I believe at $354 the gold hedging derivative instruments will fail. That is not good for our industry. Yet the new financial management of the major gold producers sits smugly quiet as they march into a total disaster for themselves, their shareholders, and our industry as a whole. Please demand hard answers from trusted members of your staff on the following questions concerning your recently acquired derivatives. They will take the cloak of disguise off the instruments you now own. I see.

1. What percentage of the funds that you have taken into earnings or deferred earnings (originating from your hedge transactions in the past five years) are free from the necessity of maintaining your present hedge position?

2. In derivative contracts with derivatives dealers, does the right of "offset" exist? That means: Should the dealer enter insolvency while owing money to us, can we charge that indebtedness against what we may owe the dealer?

3. Have we dealt with a well-known substantive investment or commercial bank, or with a subsidiary of that entity? If the answer is a subsidiary of the investment or commercial bank, in what nation is the subsidiary domiciled? What are the legal/capital/bankruptcy laws of that domicile? This information is necessary to assess real credit risk.

4. Is the subsidiary of the investment or commercial bank entitled to an automatic fund forwarding from the parent to cover the "trade deby" of that subsidiary, if the subsidiary fails? If not, then we would have to cover the failed commitments, as margin calls do not wait for litigation outcome.

5. If we have dealt with a subsidiary of the investment or commercial bank, have you seen the balance sheet of that subsidiary and audited amount of total nominal value of derivatives granted by that entity to others? Without this, no reasonable calculation can be made of our credit risk involved with this dealer.

6. If we have dealt with a substantive investment or commercial bank in hedge derivatives, has our Board of Directors been apprised of the condition using an audited statement of the nominal value of all derivatives granted by that institution? If we have not, then regardless of the hundreds of millions or billions in capital that these above firms have, no meaningful qualification of risk has been (or can be) made.

7. Can we trade the entire transaction of the hedge book with any dealer we wish, or are we obligated to one "granting dealer" when changes or closure are required or desired? If we can't take our position in totality (or leg by leg) to any dealer, we have severely limited our liquidity and tied ourselves to the financial condition of our counterparty.

8. Assuming we used leased gold contracts as part of our hedging program, do either ourselves or the dealers have the obligation of returning the gold, re-leasing the gold, or replacing the gold at the end of the standard term of lease (which is one year) required by all central banks? Does our Board of Directors realize that no matter what our contract says with the gold bank, the leased gold needs to be re-leased, replaced, or covered at the end of each year regardless of the fact that our hedge position may go out as far as 10 years forward?

9. Regarding the hedge instruments:
A) Were all the trades transacted over-the-counter, or on a listed exchange?
B) Is there a regulatory body presiding over all these transaction?
C) Are the prices of these instruments in the public record somewhere?
D) Was the price of these instruments determined by computer modeling?
E) Is there an open market for each leg of these hedge transactions?

10. Regarding legal considerations:
A) Are you familiar with the legal precedent set in the early 1990s in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York whereby the validity of a derivative transaction is determined by the capitalization of a transaction versus the nominal value of the transaction?
B) Are you familiar with the legal precedent concerning the validity of a commodity transaction being determined by the timely (and industry standard) execution of a margin call?
If every hedging gold producer chairman of the board, where the buck ends, would ask these questions, I believe the answer would go a long way toward putting an end to the use of financially weak instruments. I believe in free markets and the right of any commodity-producing company to hedge. But hedging has to be done intelligently in instruments that have guarantees that they will function. The instruments now being used for hedging are extremely dangerous in a world where the best names today can be the bankrupts of tomorrow.
Please be informed that the total size of the nominal value of all gold derivatives on the books of the commercial banks of the 48 countries reporting to the International Monetary Fund is at gold $285 = $278,000,000,000, of which the total amount of all the gold hedged by all the gold producers of the world is only 11 percent.
Convert the total nominal value of all the commercial banks' gold derivative position into ounces of gold, and your figure is over 900,000,000 ounces of gold represented at nominal value by the commercial bank. Sir, a disaster is in the making, therefore please get Newmont out of harm's way.

Sincerely yours,
James Sinclair,
Chairman Tan Range Exploration
Sharon, Connecticut

Old Yeller

(05/18/2002; 10:54:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75940)

Au revoir,dollar

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=17052002-102127-3873r
As the big production winds down and the crowds thin in the US casinos,capital flows are dropping rapidly.Yet,O'Neill still bleats out the tired old refrain about the superiority of the US financial landscape.

One by one,former market darlings are exposed for what they are and the stock price falls to pennies.Meanwhile the SEC and other assorted government protectors of integrity are shown to be more protective of the financial industry and politicians.Furthermore,the accounting ledgerdemain so prevalent in US industry is now being spotlighted in government accounting as well.

Quite a selling job to undertake,pulling in that 1.5 billion per day.Somebody needs a new marketing program.

The concerned players are converting their casino chips into another form of wealth,one that relies little on platitudes served up by those who ignore history and economic reality.

AU revoir to the dollar.

Cavan Man

(05/18/2002; 11:08:44 MDT - Msg ID: 75941)

Old Yeller

And, (no way to begin a sentence--oh well..) US trade policy is focused upon augmenting the standing of the dollar as well. I don't think there is a painless way out of the various financial/economic/global monetary dilemmas confronting policy makers. Your best bet:AU; at least until the smoke clears.

Mr Gresham

(05/18/2002; 11:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75942)

rsjacksr, Invisible Hand

Thanks for the James Sinclair post -- I feel like I'm starting to absorb some understanding of these hedging perils, just as they're starting to unwind -- or blow up -- in the less expected places. Interesting that FOA gave us all this background on hedgers, bullion banks, CBs etc, without naming the names we're now hearing -- maybe the judicious learning receieved from years in the financial world?

Germans want D-mark back? Looks like Euro has to deliver soon. Stop doing things to ease the dollar's demise and show some "winnings" for the new team?

With all the perils around, and gold the only likely winner in ALL currencies (Salinas' essay linked by YGM yesterday), the Euro had to go one tiny step at a time to establish itself before general mayhem broke out -- also like trying to race across the railroad tracks between two oncoming trains. Domestic dissent might just dim some of their worries about external events?

I should read the link (no time), but I wonder in what terms such "success" should be delivered to a demanding public? Low Euro for export employment, or high Euro for consumer goodies? Stable Euro for central banker wise practices fulfillment might be missed by sensationalized public? Watching Dollar fall might tend to bond the Euro nations a bit more?

barnacle bill

(05/18/2002; 11:38:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75943)

Stolen Russian gold/BOE gold sales Msg#75914

I read that somewhere before as well. When communism came crashing down, either the Russian mafia or the deaprting plutocrats took the gold and fled. First it went to Holland, and then somehow it ended up on England. As it always does, the truth will someday emerge.

Old Yeller

(05/18/2002; 13:18:02 MDT - Msg ID: 75944)

Cavan Man;trade and the dollar bubble

"The argument that the US is the single engine of growth all but admits the process works like this:US interest rates go down,asset prices go up,investment and other processes stimulate consumption and expenditures,which raise profits and incomes in those most effected by the "successfull'inflation policies.This in turn attracts foreign investment(short term) for as long as the inflation is rewarding,and so long as some of those profits are shared through trade as well as returns on stock or bond portfolios.

But what happens when this process no longer works? Lowering interest rates since 2001 have not helped 'financial asset'prices or business expenditures in the US,let alone anywhere else.They have helped consumption/borrowing expand,both by consumer and government.But unless asset prices rise soon(meaning a new bull market)these parties will not be able to pay down their debts.

Now a trade war looms.To the extent that the current trade policies are aimed at stimulating domestic production and prices in some industries,the argument can be made that they will help bolster equity values.But this argument doesn't wash.

A world that moves away from free trade is going to find less use for owning dollars or dollar assets today.Moreover,there is only a small segment of the stock market that could benefit from rising commodity prices,while there is a larger population of stocks whose valuations continue to beg for lower interest rates and who benefit from a benign price environment.

And while analysts pessimistic on the US economy but more so on foreign currencies expect a falling US economy to impair the global economy,we ask why would those currencies fall,if the main reason they've fallen to date is because the US economy grew."

Ed Bugos;Dollar Devaluation

Why,indeed?

After seven years,I'm weary of 'successful' inflation policies'so is the rest of the world.Most of them just don't realize it yet.

"If the US economy could benefit from global currency collapses,why couldn't global economies benefit from a dollar collapse?Probably because the world's wealth and monetary reserves are in dollars and dollar assets."

Therein lies the dilemma,by giving the US and other central bankers the tacit approval to derivatize and present paper substitutes as a replacement for real physical gold,we arrive at the present juncture of economic history.

We all like to point fingers of blame,however,we the people bear much responsibility for this mess,as we let their economic 'solutions' over-ride common sense and reality.

YGM

(05/18/2002; 14:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75945)

Barnacle Bill...

As you say..."The truth will emerge"....Yes it will, it does and it has been emerging since time immorial....Trouble is it usually gets sidelined to "Conspiracy Theory Realm" by those it places in the limelight. We the truth seekers become the nutty "Conspiracy Theorists" and they stay innocently offended by the suggestions presented.....Maybe over the course of many years the Net will change the truths of history, past and present. We shall hope yes?....YGM

YGM

(05/18/2002; 14:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 75946)

Rothschild Stole Russian Czars Gold...

http://www.light1998.com/The_satanic_bloodline/Rothschild_bloodline.htm& BOE helped....

Belgian

(05/18/2002; 14:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 75947)

The euro....

Good respons and euro-vision, Sir Gresham. Not even 0,1 % of Eurolanders or Americans even want to take into consideration that these two currencies are and will become arch rivals ! It is a Very subtle play indeed.
None of the two dares/wants to make a decisive move and establish an outspoken trend against each other.
But don't make the mistake of believing that they will keep each other in relative balance and mutual harmony for ever.

Wich of the two currencies has to win or lose the most with what kind of move (exchange rate) ? And what will be the underlying trigger that forces one of them to make that move finally ? Let oil make the decision ! Gold will walk in line once oil decided firmly on its move on installment of a painfull pricelevel. Re-inforcement of dollar-depreciation at the wrongiest of moments, followed with Hyperinflation when the dollar gives up and waves arrivederci ! The other 50% of anti-euro Germans will finally understand what their/our euro, stands for, postfactum.

YGM

(05/18/2002; 14:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75948)

Bush Cabal Fraud...Martin

http://www.almartinraw.com/column55.htmlIntriguing....Truth or Conspiracy theory?

Ozzie

(05/18/2002; 15:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 75949)

@AragornIII......

I have your 'DEFINITIVE' post stored somewhere in the bowels of my computer....'Don't be stupid.....Gold IS the easy money!'.....Criminy!!!!

barnacle bill

(05/18/2002; 15:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75950)

YGM

The Truth Will EmergeOver the course of the past few years, the Net has already started to change the truths of history.

Your post started me thinking about what it would have been like back in the sixties when Oswald got framed for JFK's death. I was a teenager back then. When the Warren Commission Report came out most people knew that a lot of questions remained and/or went unexamined. The problem was that there was no national forum to exchange views.

nickel62

(05/18/2002; 15:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 75951)

Thank you Mr. Gresham,

I appreciated your commnets and I hope it was clear that my entire post was of course based on Bob Landis's excellent analysis. What I was trying to do was make the points even simpler so that they can become part of the public consciouness. And finally show Barrick up for the financial scam it is.

YGM

(05/18/2002; 15:49:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75952)

Russian Crime $$ & US Banks

http://www.russianlaw.org/palmer.htmAmerican Russian Law Institute

STATEMENT OF RICHARD L. PALMER, PRESIDENT OF CACHET INTERNATIONAL, INC. ON THE INFILTRATION OF THE WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM BY ELEMENTS OF RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME BEFORE THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES ON SEPTEMBER 21, 1999

Christian

(05/18/2002; 16:00:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75953)

Future

U.S. trade deficit will be reduced. The arrival of raw materials times price man debited, nature credited, delivers earnings. It takes production times price to generate income for an economy. That income for the economy can only be produced through the mechanism of higher metal prices that also serve as a unit of exchange. More and more household incomes are dropping. More and more people are forced off the fast lane of life and are forced back to basics. The underground cash economy is growing. Car dealers are even accepting dope as partial payment to make a sale. Drugs purchased from pharmacies are used in barter exchange. The biggest thing that will reduce our trade deficit will be the interest lug on debt that is annihilating the middle class. More income will have to go towards debt service instead of imported goods.The coming devaluation of the dollar against gold will also reduce our trade deficit for it reduces funds that could be used for imported stuff going for physical savings. The FED has now entered the stock market in a real way. It has set up accounts to buy stock from mutual funds that have high redemptions. These trades are done in a direct off exchange manner. The FED has monetized home equity via GSE's, consumer credit via credit card and all that is left is stocks. I feel the FED is about to buy stocks (DOW) in a big way and dump it all in September, October or so after the public is in at the top with new borrowed money. Then during the winter montyhs the FED will monetize metals. Drive the metal price so high no one can afford it and dump it. By that time stock should be cheap enough to monetize them again by buying and dumping them.

Chris Powell

(05/18/2002; 16:31:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75954)

Letter to Newmont from James Sinclair

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1107RSJackSr., I think I posted here on Wednesday
night a link to James Sinclair's letter to
Newmont Mining, as distributed by GATA:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1107

People may have missed my post because I probably
posted it just before midnight Mountain Time,
and it very quickly became one of the previous
day's posts.

Typically the first thing I do after dispatching
a message to GATA's e-mail list is to post a
link to it at this wonderful forum. Many thanks
to its proprietor.

Ozzie

(05/18/2002; 17:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75955)

Uh......

....got gold?

YGM

(05/18/2002; 18:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75956)

Bush Cabal ... Part 1

http://www.almartinraw.com/column54.html*I guess I should have linked this part first, but thought it would be found @ bottom of prt 2......YGM
.......................................

EXCERPT:

And what does this have to do with sedition? You must realize that most of the big, big Republican money (the trillion-dollar type money) was made by huge short positions in the market during the time frame of 1987-1989.

This was extensively discussed by Jeb Bush and others in 1985 -- and rather openly so. They were shorting entire indexes, and that's what distorted the markets. That's why there was so much distortion in '87, '88 and going into '89, when all these different types of spreads came up, and people couldn't figure out what they were.

In other words, the Bush Cabal entered into a policy, which they knew would weaken the economic marketplace, the capital marketplaces of the United States, and hence worldwide, since when we sneeze, the rest of the world gets the flu, economically speaking. They capitalized on it further by instituting enormous short positions in a market because they were themselves the ones causing the economic damage to the underpinnings of the nation, which would eventually be felt in the nation's capital marketplaces.

The companies used were the same old list of favorites. Merrill Lynch. Goldman Sachs. Practically every Republican I knew at the time did business there. They would form offshore investment groups that they would all pool into. Trilateral Investment Group Ltd. was one name I remember. The Omni Investment Group Ltd. They would all be Republican-controlled, and they would institute huge short positions in the markets. A lot of times they were dealing with Republican controlled institutions, so if they got into an unsecured debit balance position, nobody ever put the arm on them for the money. They could carry positions much longer, outside of market rules.

They made enormous amounts of money. Alan Greenspan sent a series of secret memorandums to George Bush, prior to the market crash of 1987. He was very nervous during this time. He knew what they were doing, and he told George Bush secretly that you're undermining the capital markets of the United States. Where do you think this is all going to lead?

I have made this contention before-that the stock market collapse in October of 1987 was caused by a massive draining of capital out of the United States, principally due to a variety of schemes originally proffered by the Bushites.

The Stranger

(05/18/2002; 18:24:53 MDT - Msg ID: 75957)

With Due Respect to James Sinclair....

....Ron Cambre is no longer chairman of Newmont. Wayne Murdy is. Such a glaring mistake makes me wonder just how big a Newmont shareholder Sinclair is. Furthermore, what possible advantage could Mr. Sinclair derive from delivering his message in the form of such an open letter? Is there an ulterior motive here?

Black Blade

(05/18/2002; 18:46:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75958)

Buy! (I Need the Bonus)

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101020520-237027,00.html
A widening probe of stock analysts shows how they have long played average investors for chumps

Snippit:

"The Salomon guys were a little faster with the rules and more focused on investment banking," says a longtime member of Smith Barney's research team. That's when big money started flying toward analysts at the firm who could help reel in underwriting deals by promising to "cover" the stock � which often meant that the analysts would praise the stock and recommend it to investors.

Salomon and other big brokerages profited nicely from this approach during the '90s boom, when a rising tide lifted all kinds of leaky stocks. Investment-banking divisions became huge profit centers for brokerage firms, which in addition to garnering lucrative advisory fees made 20 times as much in commissions on IPOs as they did on simple stock trades. Companies choosing which brokerage firm would handle their new stock issues increasingly went with those that had a star analyst willing to recommend their stock.

Such was the climate that led to the now famous e-mails written in 1999 and 2000 by Henry Blodget and other Merrill Lynch analysts privately calling stocks "a piece of junk" or "crap" or "a dog," while advising clients to buy them. The e-mails, subpoenaed and made public last month by New York State attorney general Eliot Spitzer, have created an uproar among investors who feel they have been defrauded by brokerage firms whom they had trusted � and often paid � for honest advice.

Black Blade: Just business as usual on Wall Street as the pimps (such as Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodgett and Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker) fleece their clients with sweet stories about crap investments. So far there have been about 30 investor lawsuits initiated against major Wall Street firms. Several states have contacted NY AG Eliot Spitzer in order to pursue investigations and criminal proceedings on their own. It is going to get very "Interesting" on Wall Street over the next several months. Interesting article.

GoldnSilver2002

(05/18/2002; 19:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75959)

Dow and Gold at a crossroads

Realizing a loss of control of Gold was imminent,the dow rallied last week,crying "come back to me o investor'sell thine gold,PLEASssE!! Next week will be extremely important for both Gold and the dow.Silver is climbing,i like both gold and silver.If silver breaks loose,it may help gold as now the cabal has another front to fight.

Makes me think of hitler sitting in his bunkers,russians to the left,allies to the right.Of in the distance huge canons firing,bullets flying everywhere,he turns to his commander in chief and says "Right!Order in the phantom troops,planes and tanks!Otherwise i only have one option...this pill."

Gandalf the White

(05/18/2002; 19:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 75960)

Looking through the FOG to really see the Facts !

==
The Stranger (5/18/02; 18:24:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 75957)
With Due Respect--
==
Howdy there Stranger <;-)
One does wonder the motives of such actions, yes ?
GREAT to see BOTH you and Aragorn III back at the TABLEROUND!!
Let us hear from you again soon. Got the bike polished ?
<;-)

Joanne

(05/18/2002; 19:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 75961)

To Belgian

From your lips to God's ears.

Cavan Man

(05/18/2002; 20:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75962)

Sinclair aka Nutty Professor?

He might be in a better position going the other way. That's not cricket though. I'd expect that from the Enron crowd. You just can't trust anybody anymore. Hope the rest of the letter is accurate after the salutation.

Canuck

(05/18/2002; 20:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75963)

@ Joanne

Aristotle has a point in his theory of coin vs. bullion however I cannot see the vast divergance between the two.

You (we) have heard from Belgium today and I agree with him totally, a cap would be nearly impossible. How would gold trade (with a 'locked price') of say $1,000 in the US while it trades 'freely' around the rest of the world for much, much more. Gold would leave the US big time through the 'backdoor'.

Having said that, I believe Ari is correct that coin may demand a higher price, oz for oz. This premium may increase because due to 'security', confiscation and liquidity reasons. Over the last year or so I have been adding more and more unique gold to my collection, pre-1933, Sovereigns, mini-wafers (1 gm.,2.5 gm, 5 gm.) I have been giving the 1 gm. wafers to friends and business associates.
(Usually with a printout of a one-year stock price of my favorite gold stock!!!)

I keep my 'secure' gold in a safety deposit box. Some may not agree with this. My bullion is buried in the bottom of a lake.

Plan B is simply barter. When 'hell has been released' (Gladiator) a one-ounce R.C.M. serialized wafer will trade for much food, land, vehicle (horse?) etc., etc.

I gave my best friend a 2.5 gm. gold wafer and a one-ounce silver bar. I told him to hold onto them forever, "..when the SHTF the oz. of silver will buy you a rifle and the gold will buy you a tank...." This is also part of Plan B.

Plan A: buy gold, make a profit, retire. World is still civilized.

Plan B: bullion trades for life essentials. World is out-of control.

Buying gold is insurance; if things get bizarre, as I think they will, (the degree of choas is yet unknown)gold will provide options. No gold, no options, it is simply that.

Bush tells the world he know a month prior of terrorist strikes. Just imagine what is known behind White House doors, JPM doors, Wall Street doors, etc. I am waiting for someone to spill some major beans. More and more are becoming aware of the crooked ones at the top. People are getting tired and ugly with it. Fuses will start to pop soon. Imagine if Mr. Greenspan spilled his guts?

As early as a couple years ago I couldn't understand why things didn't just blow. It takes time for these things to materialize, to develop. The unexplainable, unaccountable craziness will end, and it will end ugly. Does it really matter when as long as one is prepared when it does?

mikal

(05/18/2002; 21:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 75964)

Terrorist "communications" activity?

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml/?type=topnews&StoryID=979522U.S. Detects 'Enhanced' Threat of a New Attack
May 18, 2002 08:38 PM ET � By Steve Holland
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence officials have detected "enhanced activity" that points to a potential new attack against the United States or American interests abroad, a White House official said on Saturday.
The FBI also warned of a possible plot by Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network to detonate bombs in apartment buildings in the United States.
The comments came as The New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence agencies have intercepted a series of messages among al Qaeda operatives indicating the group is attempting to launch an attack as big as or bigger than the one on Sept. 11.
Quoting unidentified intelligence and law enforcement officials, the Times characterized the communications as vague but disturbing. The intercepted messages are so general that they have left President Bush and U.S. counterterrorism officials uncertain about the timing, location or method in this potential attack, the Times reported.
........The officials cited by the Times compared the messages with the pattern of communications picked up in the spring and early summer of 2001, when al Qaeda operatives were detected speaking about a major operation.
"There's just a lot of chatter in the system again," a senior administration official told the Times. "We are actively pursuing it and trying to see what's going on here." ......click link for more++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The article may attempt to exonerate Bush. It compares pre-Sept. 11 communications to these "blurry" but ones. Very disturbing, if not foreboding. Mention also made of possible European and Arabian targets may mean simultaneous attacks, echoing New York, Pentagon, and Pennsylvania.

YGM

(05/18/2002; 23:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75965)

Not Sure if This Has Been Posted Yet?

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=MONEYCOLOR-05-17-02&cat=ANU.S. currency going for gold and other colors
By RICHARD POWELSON
Scripps Howard News Service
May 17, 2002

WASHINGTON - Americans have been spending greenbacks all their lives, but the Treasury Department is betting they will be just as happy with gold $100 bills or blue $20s or other colors already on foreign currency.

The primary goal, however, is not to brighten up U.S. currency - long black and white on the front and green and white on the back. They want to make it harder for counterfeiters to stay in business.

"The Secret Service says adding the new background color would help thwart counterfeiting - make it a little more difficult to replicate," said James Hagedorn of the federal Bureau of Engraving and Printing.

He would not offer hints about the new hues except to say they will be "subtle."

If Olympic-medal colors are any guide for U.S. money managers, perhaps the new $100 bill, the highest denomination the government currently makes, will have a gold background. Or will new currency feature a fanciful "Amber Andy" Jackson on the $20 bill? Or a "Green Grant" background for the former president on the $50 bill? We have copper Lincoln pennies, so how about a copper $5 Lincoln bill?

No one wants blood money in their hands, but what about purple money? That's the color of the largest of the "euro" notes. The new currency is used by a dozen European countries. Each of the seven denominations has a different background color.

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has not given final approval to the background color choices, but federal planners have been moving ahead with the expectation that he will. The department likely will announce soon whether the first bill to get extra color will be the $100 or the $20, and the first newly colored money could be in circulation as early as mid-2003.

Perhaps the only money not getting makeovers will be the $1 and $2 bills, which are not targets for counterfeiters. About $60 million worth of counterfeit money is seized annually, according to Secret Service agent James Mackin.

There already are 15 features on currency designed since 1996 to make counterfeiting more challenging. One such feature is the watermark portrait of a former U.S. leader on the right side of bills that is visible when held up to the light.

Despite no public announcements on the final colors, the vending-machine industry is predicting that a lot of red ink will be involved. At least on their end. Reformatting the machines to recognize the new designs will cost the industry millions of dollars, said Tom McMahon of the National Automatic Merchandising Association.

But money lovers - and who isn't one? - likely will embrace the changes, predicted Stephen Bobbitt of the American Numismatic Association.

"It's not a cause for concern among our members," he said. "It's more a cause for excitement. It's a chance for something new. We think it would be another way for people to stop and look at their money and pay attention to it a little bit."

Black Blade

(05/18/2002; 23:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 75966)

IEA resolves niggling issue, Saudi still tops in crude

http://www.petroleumworld.com/story8079.htm

Snippit:

DJ-A niggling issue in the global oil market appears to have been resolved. By a growing margin, Saudi Arabia is maintaining its lead over Russia as the world's largest crude oil producer. A quick, and inaccurate, reading of monthly oil output estimates published by the West's oil watchdog, the International Energy Agency, led to worldwide news reports in recent months that Russia had toppled the Saudis from the global top spot for the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The designation, admittedly, means little on a practical basis for day-to-day oil markets. The Saudis are, by a vast margin, the world's biggest crude oil exporter, shipping about twice as much as the Russians.

Oil industry officials and analysts have long believed that Russia never implemented the 150,000 b/d cuts in crude oil exports that it pledged to make. Therefore, there's no real supply impact expected from the move to reverse the "on paper only" cuts. Still, oil prices weakened on the impression that supplies will be rising. Russia, for its part, boosted crude oil output in March by 60,000 b/d to a post-Soviet era record of 7.16 million b/d, and a rise of 610,000 b/d from a year earlier, according to IEA. The scope of Russia's output gain is well beyond the IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth this year, of just 400,000 b/d, to 76.4 million b/d.

Adding to confusion, IEA provides a separate listing for the Neutral Zone in its OPEC output table, rather than adding the Saudi 50% share to its production number. At first glance, therefore, it appears that Russia (including NGLs) out-produced Saudi Arabia in February, March and April by as much as 440,000 b/d. But the true story behind the numbers is that the Saudis remain on top

Black Blade: I thought that the earlier reports were a bit optimistic. I had said that the Russians likely never adhered to the agreed upon production cuts (it is not in their nature to tell the truth or keep to a deal). Also, what is interesting in this article is that the Russian supply (if Russian data is to be believed) is barely outpacing the increase in demand. Most other suppliers are producing at near capacity. Luckily the Global economy is in recession.

Waverider

(05/18/2002; 23:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 75967)

Hedgers wipe out more than $1-bn

http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A85256BBD0009E398?OpenDocumentSnippit:
"The books of the largest hedgers swung violently as the leading foursome by ounces committed � Barrick [ABX], AngloGold [AU], Placer Dome and Newmont [NEM] � saw their balance sheets weaken by close on $1 billion. The top four account for over 50 million ounces of hedge commitments, half of those against Barrick's name alone."

Waverider: Hmmm...and GG just announced a 2-for-1 split this week. The numbers speak for themselves!

Golden Bear

(05/19/2002; 00:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75968)

Old Yeller (msg#: 75944) Cavan Man;trade and the dollar bubble

your quote:"....We all like to point fingers of blame,however,we the people bear much responsibility for this mess,as we let their economic 'solutions' over-ride common sense and reality...."

You are correct in that all of us bear responsibility, but your next point about common sense is flawed. Go to your nearest shopping mall and have a look around - I bet you wont find much of it....

Yes, these are the same sheeple that will drive miles to save a few dollars on an item, while paying outrageously over inflated prices for their new homes with huge amounts of debt... go figure.

Cheers.

Graefin

(05/19/2002; 00:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75969)

Mexican, Waverider, Cobra(t00), Pippin...

Wanted to thank you the happy birthday posts on my birthday. So...Vielen Dank! Mexican --> Are you sure you're Mexican? Pippin --> Glad to see someone else in the same time zone as I!
Peace, Love, and Gold Bars!
- Gr�fin

Golden Bear

(05/19/2002; 00:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 75970)

Christian (msg#: 75953) Future

your quote:

"...Drive the metal price so high no one can afford it and dump it...."

My apologies, but I cannot quite come to grips with this comment. If one owns it outright, the have already afforded it and are reaping the rewards for doing so...., unless you meant something entirely different that I missed.

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 01:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 75971)

Honda, New York firm to collaborate on fuel cell refueling station research

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020514/ap_wo_en_bu/us_honda_fuel_cell_generators_1
Snippit:

DETROIT - The research arm of Honda Motor Co. and a U.S. firm that produces electric generators announced Tuesday that they will work together to tackle one of the peskiest obstacles to mass production of fuel cell vehicles. The refueling stations they will work on will provide heat, hot water and electricity to a home while also producing hydrogen for a fuel cell vehicle. The stations will be fueled with natural gas.

Home refueling units could help speed public acceptance of fuel cell vehicles, further building a case for automakers to build them, said Mark Sperry, Plug Power vice president. "We think this concept has the ability to accelerate that significantly by putting hydrogen at the point of need instead of building an elaborate infrastructure," Sperry said. One of the reasons automakers say hydrogen-fed fuel cell vehicles are not yet viable is the lack of a refueling infrastructure.

Last January the federal government announced the establishment of Freedom CAR, a partnership with the U.S. automakers aimed at creating such a network of hydrogen filling stations to help accelerate production of fuel cell vehicles. Every major automaker is working on some type of fuel cell vehicle. The technology creates electric power from hydrogen and is viewed by the industry and environmentalists as a possible alternative to fossil fuels.

Black Blade: The end of the gasoline station? Go home and plug into the NG line. There are also several companies developing home based fuel cell power plants that may eliminate dependence on the grid. Of course all fuel cells will likely operate off of natural gas. Hmmm�

Belgian

(05/19/2002; 01:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75972)

Crude Oil (BB)

How much statistical cheating (falsification-s) is done on the production and consumption of this basic and unique resource ? Why is the oil-cartel (OPEC) still accepted as a legal organization and are the Russion oil-statistics within an acceptable range of trustworthiness ?

Are those Big oil companies, really, *private* companies, operating in a free market within the offer/demand laws ?
Not much is revealed about state's impact on Western oil companies.

The wide diversity of oil producers and oil consumers must have very different vieuws on that one and only currency (the dollar) in what oil has to be paid. This raises the question of "who" is served best at what dollar exchange rate ? Wich oil consuming block/producing block, has the capability of giving the right (optimal) value (?) to the oil-currency par excellence : the US$ ?

At present, I smell a temporary conflict of interest between ME-oil and Russian oil ? With the $ almost at parity with the euro, Russians do feel fine and can trade with Euroland on a comfortable exchange rate.
ME oil producers do feel threathened by the geo-political situation and growing opposition (freedom-fight) within their own populations (1,2 Billion people). They are the most in need of a much higher oilprice and in a currency with a strong and reliable purchasing power well into the future.

This situation comes into conflict with the biggest oil consumer : the US, most vulnarable to price fluctuations.

Different oil prices have different impacts on the wide variety of economic/military blocks on this globe. The evolving geopolitical events will result in sudden changes of positions for China/Euroland/India/Japan. Friends of today may suddenly become adversaries, tomorrow. These changes could be dictated by the changes in POO and the settlement currency (US$) exchange rates.

The past 3 years of increased volatility in the POO, indicates that something complicated is going on, based on oil and dollar. Global stability is decreasing rapidly.

My question : Does anyone has a better vieuw on how this complicated story can be reduced to a more simple one, through filtering out the noise of unimportant parameters ?
Where is the breaking point of the dollar telling oil's price or oil pricing the dollar ? Is Euroland the one who will decide to what side this shaky balance will tumble (Bush visiting Euroland) ?

Will US increasing protectionism, trigger the final attack on the dollar ? How far is one bridge too far ?
What does China need as reason to leave the dollar and jump fully into the euro ? Will Russia follow ? Are possible currency-choices/decisions based on economical or rather military arguments ?

It would be much less complicated if POG should be used to adjust exchange rates. Only one MAJOR handicap : Touching POG, is guarantee for uncontrollable consequences. Oil is much more complicated as a value denominator, but has more economical pragmatical characteristics. Help !

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 02:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 75973)

North American Conventional Gas Supply Shortfall Seen

http://hsweb01.screamingmedia.com/PMA/pma_newsarticle1_national.htm?SMDOCID=bellsgml_2002_04_26_29190_115898994-0266-KEYWORD.Missing&SMContentSet=0

Snippit:

Conventional natural gas supplies will not be enough to meet the North American market's demand for gas over the next decade. In the coming years, demand will have to be met through all industry players working together to expand North America's gas network as well as exploring for gas in various frontier areas of the US and Canada.

This was the consensus among panelists representing US and Canadian pipelines and producers at the opening of the 2-day North American Gas Strategies Conference hosted by Ziff Energy Group Apr. 15 in Houston. Natural gas drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico doubled during 1995-2001 and has come off strongly during the first part of this year, Ziff added. Meanwhile, although onshore gas drilling activity in the Lower 48 has grown by 130% over the last 7 years, it has fallen off sharply during the first part of 2002, Ziff noted.

Natural gas consumption

Natural gas consumption in the US and Canada will grow to 28.5 tcf/year by 2010, slightly less than a 2% compounded growth average, said Doug Whisenaut, president, Williams Gas Pipelines Group. "Over half of this increase in gas consumption is for power generation peaks, which is expected to grow 5%/year over the same period. While power generation itself... is expected to grow by slightly less than 2%/year over the decade, almost two thirds of that growth is expected to be las-fired," he said.

As a result, Whisenaut noted, gasfired power generation will represent 21 % of total generation in the US. "Since the growth of US gas-fired generation capacity is to serve summer cooling demand, we forecast a smaller growth in the annual gas consumption for power generation. Clearly, pipelines need to be able to handle the demand sweeps of power generation."

Natural gas supply

Significant increases in production will be required to meet growing gas demand in the US and Canada, the panelists concurred.At least one panelist, meanwhile, felt that gas supplies could better meet increasing demand through the expansion of existing storage facilities and the construction of new ones. "With the amount of load that [industry is] bringing on in terms of electric generation as well as the growth in the [local distribution company] market, we've got to bring new storage resources on," said Thomas O'Connor, senior vice president, marketing and capacity management, Duke Energy Gas Transmission, a unit of Duke Energy Corp., Charlotte, NC.

Infrastructure development

One of the biggest challenges facing the pipeline industry, Wuori said, is infrastructure development policy in US and Canadian frontier areas. "All over North America-particularly onshore-there are issues whenever new construction is contemplated," he said. "There is growing North American demand and supply from the frontiers, but the connection of those becomes the big challenge, because there is always someone who has an issue. "The issues of NIMBY-'Not in my backyard'-- or the less-- familiar BANANA-- `Build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone -- remain the mantras for those taking issue with new construction," Wuori said.

Black Blade: Thankfully we are in a deepening recession and hopefully we will not increase demand or else supply will be a critical issue. As it is, we are very lucky to be in a deepening recession. I would venture a guess that if the US economy were to improve we could see increased demand and more costly energy leading to supply shortfalls and energy blackouts. That in turn will kill any improving economy. Fortunately the economy is getting worse, not better.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 02:42:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75974)

Is FSU Oil Sustainable?

http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/PetRev200204.pdf
FSU Oil production may not have much room for expansion and could "peak" by 2010. (pdf file)

Christian

(05/19/2002; 03:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75975)

(No Subject)

@Golden Bear- As i see it Greenspan along with the Republican offshore trust funds are about to pump the DOW in a real way. Gold is temporary caped with massive new short positions developed to fund the Dow. Greenspan has to monetize the DOW for many of these companies operate world wide in order to keep the economy alive. This run up will last into October when all of a sudden something out of the blue will tank the market. The October 87 crash was caused by massive draining of capital out of the U.S. Same will happen again for the same people who did it are in power again. Then Greenspan will be forced to monetize gold and gold related metal. Presently credit creation gold trades between central banks in the $9,000 range. Gold short positions are backed by commodity gold. Commodity Gold will be confiscated at face value $42.22 or whatever it is and removed from the commodity gold and repriced as credit creation gold between central banks. The one change that is to come is that a number of our central banks will go under. We now have a number of offshore hedge funds who have enough gold backing to act as central banks. USA will turn into Russia. An economic concentration camp run for profit operation for a few people on top. Each person is a fodder unit. After gold is conviscated at $42.22 a black market for gold will develope at a price between $3,000 to $5,000. Like with the dope trade there will be no free market sell and buy operations like it is now. The gold lease operation now going on will come to an end this coming winter. The same gold is leased, sold and never moved- over and over and over again and again. It's just a paper trade. This game will also go underground. Already less then 1% of all commodity trades in gold is of actual physical delivery.

Golden Bear

(05/19/2002; 03:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 75976)

Belgian (msg#: 75972) Crude Oil (BB)

".....Are possible currency-choices/ decisions based on economical or rather military arguments ?
It would be much less complicated if POG should be used to adjust exchange rates. Only one MAJOR handicap : Touching POG, is guarantee for uncontrollable consequences. Oil is much more complicated as a value denominator, but has more economical pragmatical characteristics. Help !...."

Greetings Belgian,

first let me state that you do not need help, as your observations have been astute to this day...

I would like to add that military arguments are not prime causation, they evolve to reach an end to a political/economical goal.

IMHO, I do not believe China or Russia will outwardly dump the dollar, and give the US a reason to display to the world how they have been betrayed. Politicians and diplomats are two-faced - they will tell you they are your friend to your face, while ongoing machiavellian machinations are proceeding in the background. This will allow them to position themselves with the eventual winner, without having participated in the demise of either the US$ or Euro... The accumulation of Bullion by China shows them to be perceptive of the fact that only gold will allow them to be sided with the winners in the end and have a valuable exchange mechanism for the crude they will need to continue their ongoing rapid economic expansion. As for Russia, being both producer of crude and bullion, it needs continaution of the ablity to sell these prime commodities to markets in order to grease their economic wheels, so it is imperative that the destruction of a currency is gradual, so as not to disrupt their ability to sell.

In the end, the greatest determinant of outcomes will be the US itself, slipping into the abyss through their own abuse of fiat expansion, thus creating the realignment of the other nations as events unfold. Bush going to Euroland will achieve little, as the seeds of the US$ destruction have been sown long ago, and the Fed has no option but to keep inflating to make its death as gradual as possible...

US officials have known about this for years, and have prepared the colonialization of the Caspian oil reserves. This is what the War on Terror and the overthrow of the Taliban is really about. Stable control of the region so the pipeline can flow through Afghanistan to the coast of Pakistan into US oil tankers. In this way, the value of the dollar doesn't matter as much, since the US will be in control of their own major oil field, and not subject to the threat of OPEC blackmail.

Cheers.

Golden Bear

(05/19/2002; 03:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 75977)

Christian (msg#: 75975)

"....Gold is temporary caped with massive new short positions developed to fund the Dow...."

Don't be surprised for an upside breakout, as early as next week!

"....The October 87 crash was caused by massive draining of capital out of the U.S. Same will happen again for the same people who did it are in power again...."

I agree, and it has already begun, as seen by the weakening dollar. If it continues to weaken over the meium to long term, then the Dow is cactus...

".... Presently credit creation gold trades between central banks in the $9,000 range...."

Where did you get this figure from?

"....An economic concentration camp run for profit operation for a few people on top. Each person is a fodder unit...."

You're right, I see it all around us as we speak, subtle but definitely present...

Cheers.

Cavan Man

(05/19/2002; 05:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 75978)

@YGM

US currency going for gold and other colorsI think something is not quite right or perhaps that is my paranoia coming out. The Treasury just made a copy change remember. In fact, the new bills are not in full circulation in all denominations. This change was also made to make in harder to counterfeit. As to the color; why, of course they'd choose gold! Wouldn't you (too)?

Usul

(05/19/2002; 06:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75979)

Gold, the caped crusader!

http://members.aol.com/speaker606/jim/tv.htmlFighting fraudulent fiat!

In the episodes "The Purr-Fect Crime" and "Better Luck Next Time" (1966), Catwoman steals two priceless gold cat statues (all that excitement over a barbarous relic, tsk tsk)

Cavan Man

(05/19/2002; 07:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 75980)

USAGOLD 75965

Preparations for Eurodollar default....nah. I've been reading gold forums too long. (But why another--no pun--copy change now? The inks not dry on the last copy change.)

mikal

(05/19/2002; 07:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 75981)

Re: Msg.#75965 by YGM

Cavan Man- That snippit reminds me of the world currency samples, bundles of devalued currency some dealers sell. Many artistic, and educational for the kids!

R Powell

(05/19/2002; 08:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75982)

Christian

You offered (thanks), "The same gold is leased, sold and never moved- over and over and over again and again. It's just a paper trade. ... Already less than 1% of all commodity trades in gold is of actual physical delivery."

This is true of all commodities but percentages are probably nowhere near as low as in gold. What percentage would you assign to silver? Most all commodities prices are determined by the simple formula of leftover supply plus total production minus usage = leftover again. This is done yearly with the leftover then represented as a percentage of the current year's usage. This number (percentage) can then be used to compare with previous years for price comparison. This works well with crops grown and consummed on a yearly growing season basis.
Obviously, it does not work with metals which are accumulated over centuries and do not spoil if not promptly consummed. This may partly explain why such a small percentage sees delivery and why this market is not as suitable to true price discovery through Comex and other exchanges.

How much of what you describe in gold is applicable to the silver market? Also, of the estimated 900 million or so ounces of silver that will be consummed this year, how many of these will be purchased through the exchanges? How much then is bought directly from refiners, never passing through any price determining exchange?
TIA
Rich

Henri

(05/19/2002; 08:11:36 MDT - Msg ID: 75983)

Christian 75954 and 75975

Your vision of the future extends quite a temporal leap. My crystal ball is occluded and gives no answers to what the future holds for the world at large or domestically in the states beyond the coming week and then only into Tuesday.

The scenario you present appears to be contingent upon the forced (or perhaps clandestinely appropriated)monetization of domestic assets (housing via the Fannie and Freddie and now stocks via sweetheart deals with Mutual Fund generators). All this to service the national debt load? Or just the balance of trade deficit. Both? Add the propensity for congressional spending (more debt to service)?

I agree the end game has begun and that gold will play a crucial role in providing options for those who would survive. Credit creation gold will not stand. It is precisely this that the concept of free gold is designed to preclude. Settlement of such constructs are in the "Another" and "FOA" scenario, to be met in consumable paper. My read on this is that all the inflation we exported in the form of paper bonds and other crap will be offered to settle any claims we may have in foreign affairs. Commodity Gold will not be appropriated but will be allowed to rise in free open market transactions (read as unable to be utilized for credit creation).

I believe gold will not be able to be used for credit creation (banking of funds or the lending of more $ than available in deposits to back the loans)in the future, but as a store of wealth I believe it will still be able to collateralize a loan of equal value. The crystal ball is foggy on that though.

My bank will not exercise a gold collateralized loan presently. While it would be a very safe type of loan for this bank, it cannot be countenanced. The reason is that the gold collateral cannot be logged as a deposit. If the gold were sold and converted to bank issued CD's...then a loan could be arranged. I believe this logic is rooted in the economics of banking. With a CD deposit, ten times the deposited funds are available to the bank to loan to others. Without such a deposit, a loan would decrease the margin of profit on an existing deposit. Just not good business to give out safely collateralized loans at any interest rate.

Now it would be different if I were to put my house up! They could allow me the favorable rate of 3.75%. I presume that Fannie and Freddie are desperate to increase their loan book. Such a loan is sold there at a profit to the bank. Why at those rates I am told I cannot afford not to take a home equity loan. What rot!

mikal

(05/19/2002; 08:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 75984)

Re: Dow and gold

An increasingly common presumption that this Autumn(Fall) will mark a major reversal in the Dow appears tenuous. Everywhere, there are some fine attempts to explain the recent bounces in the DOW and NASDAQ indices. One or a few of the following are implicated- Republican offshore trustfunds, sidelined pension or mutual fund cash, ESF(Exchange Stabilization Fund), PPT(Plunge Protection Team:President's Working Group on Financial Markets) transactional indicators, moving averages, volume and resistance points, Arabs vs. Israelis, terrorists, Nipponese, American, & S. American bank troubles, consumer confidence, foreign funds outflows exceeding inflows, insider selling(distribution), US dollar trends, US trade and budget deficits, investment competition-e.g.gold, bonds, treasuries, etc. Along Divine Will(Fate or Destiny), all of these and more are real players.

YGM

(05/19/2002; 08:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 75985)

Rec'd this email this AM:

The Long Reach of the Cabal @ Work......ygmFrom: GoldWorldNet@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, 19 May 2002 01:56:46 PM
To: Undisclosed-Recipient@guniff.cairns.net.au
Cc: david@moneyweb.co.za; tim@theminingweb.com; jcrudele@nypost.com
Subject: [goldworld] The cabal at work

I am starting to see a problem for goldbugs developing.
It appears that S&P don't think that gold is a viable sector & that goldbugs should know what it's doing.

First I noticed that Yahoo stopped supplying daily quotes for JGOL
- yet they still allow you to retrieve JGOL historical data - which means that someone's thrown some switches somewhere.

Then they announce that there will be no more datafeeds on the XGO & they stop totally on July 5th.

Now I note that the TGL has been turned off - on Bigcharts they stopped it on 1st May and on Yahoo they stopped historical data on it on 1st May bet you can still get quotes on it (though no historical data) - this means someone's thrown some switches somewhere.

So now they have shut down;
The XGO - Australian Gold Index
The JGOL - Johannesburg Gold Index
The TGL - Toronto Gold Index

It seems that the powers who organize these indices (which have been the star performers this last year) don't want the public to view how well the sector is doing. I have a feeling that this has come about because of S&P telling the regional countries what indices they are allowed to display. At least that's what's being said here in Australia.

This switching off of data - especially with Yahoo (where someone has thrown a switch) shows deliberate tampering with and the intended outcome is obvious.

I find it amazing that they are discarding these indices which have been around for 10-20 years right in the time frame when they are the strongest indices of the day - nothing is outperforming gold at the moment.

To my eye this is nothing short of an attempt to hide what is happening within the gold markets.
To stop new investors seeing what is happening and to stiffle the flow of information.

This appears to be a conspiracy attempting to change the flow of information so as to cause changes in the way investors act.
And as such should be brought to the publics attention.

Regards Nick Laird

ShareLynx
Gold & Sharemarkets
http://www.sharelynx.net/

YGM

(05/19/2002; 09:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 75986)

Global Tax, One World Gov & International Criminal Court

http://www.mediabypass.com/feature.htmEXCERPT: (PAGE BOTTOM)

The Global Tax Plan
Extreme left and Communist forces at home and abroad are mobilizing to pressure the Bush administration to endorse even more foreign aid spending. Their ultimate goal is implementation of the Tobin Tax, named after the late Yale University economist James Tobin, who signed a letter before the November 2000 presidential election claiming that the proposed Bush tax cuts for the American people were too large. James Tobin wants higher taxes. His Tobin Tax is a tax on international currency transactions in the foreign currency markets. This has been called the world's largest financial market - between $1.2 trillion and $2 trillion a day is exchanged. Proponents call the Tobin Tax the "Robin Hood Tax" because it supposedly taxes the rich to benefit the poor. But it would affect ordinary Americans' IRAs, Mutual Funds and pensions - any vehicle with money that is invested abroad.

In a letter, the office of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, John Negroponte, said that, "The U.S. delegation opposed global taxation" and worked to eliminate references to that item in the final "Financing for Development" conference document. But the U.S. delegation was not completely successful. The final conference document includes language recognizing the value of exploring "innovative sources of finance." This opens the door for global taxes and a global IRS.

This means that the "last remaining superpower," the U.S., didn't have the power to resist international pressure for more foreign aid. This is a dangerous precedent. The American people have to understand that what is being proposed is a massive expansion of foreign aid to the tune of trillions of dollars.

In the U.S., welfare reform has reduced the number of loafers and deadbeats on the public payroll. But reform of the global welfare system hasn't even been attempted yet.

President Bush recently said, "We need to make sure that work is an integral part of any welfare reauthorization; that the cornerstone of a good bill understands that when we help somebody find work... that leads to more independence, more self-esteem, and more joy and hope." But the current foreign aid program creates dependence and more poverty. And now he wants to spend more on it.

Bush speaks of "conditions" attached to the aid but we don't know what they are. The odds are that the NGOs themselves will continue to monitor and distribute the aid, reporting back that everything is going as planned.

Like addicts and freeloaders, the foreign aid recipients have to go through a "cold turkey" process of achieving independence on their own. At the same time, the global tax schemes have to be confronted and defeated.

Former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali endorsed global taxes, including an international tax on airline travel. The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in 1996 published a report on how both the Clinton Administration and the UN were promoting "alternative revenue raising proposals."

Many members of Congress were outraged and introduced various bills to stop it. But the bills never passed and the UN moved forward with its plans, which are reminiscent of King George's foreign taxes on the American colonists. That caused a revolution. Today, the American people have to rekindle that revolutionary spirit and "throw the bums out" at the UN scheming to steal more of our income and spend it on global welfare.

UN promotion of a global tax dates back to 1994, when the UNDP "Human Development Report" featured an article by Tobin himself describing the idea. The same document included an article declaring:

"Mankind's problems can no longer by solved by national governments. What is needed is a world government." The UN intention is to become a world government with a world army and an International Criminal Court (ICC) that could put Americans in jail for various "crimes," including not paying their "fair share" of global taxes. The ICC will have universal jurisdiction, even over countries that don't sign or ratify the ICC treaty.

YGM

(05/19/2002; 09:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 75987)

Cavan Man...New Euro Notes......(article Dec. /01)

http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20011219S0016EXCERPT:

Euro bank notes to embed RFID chips by 2005

By Junko Yoshida

EE Times
December 19, 2001 (3:03 p.m. EST)

SAN MATEO, Calif. � The European Central Bank is working with technology partners on a hush-hush project to embed radio frequency identification tags into the very fibers of euro bank notes by 2005, EE Times has learned. Intended to foil counterfeiters, the project is developing as Europe prepares for a massive changeover to the euro, and would create an instant mass market for RFID chips, which have long sought profitable application.

The banking community and chip suppliers say the integration of an RFID antenna and chip on a bank note is technically possible, but no bank notes in the world today employ such a technology. Critics say it's unclear if the technology can be implemented at a cost that can justify the effort, and question whether it is robust enough to survive the rough-and-tumble life span of paper money.

A spokesman for the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany confirmed the existence of a project, but was careful not to comment on its technologies. At least two European semiconductor makers contacted by EE Times, Philips Semiconductors and Infineon Technologies, acknowledged their awareness of the ECB project but said they are under strict nondisclosure agreements.

Cont'd....

R Powell

(05/19/2002; 09:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75988)

Gold collateralized loan

Henri said, "My bank will not exercise a gold collateralized loan presently."

Neither will mine. I approached three local banks with the proposition that they hold the physical silver to secure a loan. All I wanted was no pre-payment penalty and the right to simultaneously sell and payoff the loan with the monies received from the sale. Same as a home mortgage.
We never got as far as discussing terms. All three banks said no.
Henri, thanks for explaining why. I figured it just didn't fit into any of their preconceived loan catagories. Whatever happened to the imagination and gumption of free enterprise?
Rich

Jimbo

(05/19/2002; 10:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 75990)

AngloGold and bankruptcy?

Black Blade, on Friday you postulated that AngloGold could go bankrupt. As an investor in AU, I'd sure appreciate knowing your reasons for making this statement. By the way, AU soared to its highest level on Friday. If AU is the wrong place to be going forward, this would be a good time to sell (and invest in, say, Durban, which is fairly low). Please advise.

Henri

(05/19/2002; 10:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 75991)

Rich Powell

Hmmm...I'm not suprised. I stopped visiting bank managers after the first one (still wet behind the ears) went to the senior management and underwriters with the request, only to call me later in the day with the news that it could not be done. He did not give the actual reason...nor did I ask...I did not expect it would be allowed. It was fun to watch his initial enthusiasm though. I think he got a good lesson in banking from his superiors.

And what of free enterprise? I am thinking that "Credit Unions" may be a thrust in that direction though I haven't looked into them. It would seem that someone with a bit of capital to lend could do well loaning it out with collateral (especially gold) held in escrow at a rate below common banking fees. The riskier such a loan is the more lucrative to the lender. Default on payments initiates transfer of the collateral to the lender. Sweet.

balzac

(05/19/2002; 10:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 75992)

re: Cabal at work.

YGMs comments.If the Cabal is trying to shut down info sources on the POG,

It is time for the GATA FREEDOM FIGHTERS to roll into action.

Does anyone have email addresses for S&P offices and other

public sensitive communication links? Lets get at it!!

Free the markets ! Free info ! Democracy for All.

Balzac

sector

(05/19/2002; 11:01:37 MDT - Msg ID: 75993)

Why You Don't Want Hedged Producers in a Rising Gold Market

See theminingweb.com's articleGold Hedge Books...Mark-to-market-$USDMillions..... Hedged [Million oz]
Barrick....................................($127)...............................................24.00
AngloGold...........................($495)...............................................12.90
Placer Dome.........................$235...................................................8.60
Newmont............................. ($411)................................................ 7.30
Newcrest .............................($492) ................................................6.00
Aurion Gold...........................($247)............................................... 5.50
Ashanti ..................................($106) ...............................................5.10
Lihir ...................................................................................................2.50
Cambior ..............................($29.80) .............................................1.20

Totals ................................($1,673).............................................. 73.10
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For every $1 in pog rise Barrick goes under another $21 Million dollars. So...a $20 doll;ar rise means another $420 million underwater. They haven't GOT $410 million in cash. That is why their bankers gave them a MARGIN CALL last week to BUY or [Get any way they can] over 7 million ounces of gold.

How is AngloGold doing? They have almost 13 million ounces to buy...and not too much time left.

There won't be enough gold anywhere to cover these positions.

These guys are still in denial that really bad things can happen. Indeed, they are completly at the mercy of gold bulls...even AngloGold.

73 million ounces of latent buying in hedge books. Thats 2,273 tonnes folks.

Sierra Madre

(05/19/2002; 11:13:11 MDT - Msg ID: 75994)

A new book you should all have

I have been reading "Gold Wars", by Ferdinand Lips, which has just been published.

Lips is a Swiss banker in the traditional form. He is 71, has seen the whole show from inside banking in Switzerland.

Those men of his age, who lived through other times and have had experience with conditions prevailing when money still retained some quality - especially the Swiss Franc - are not going to be around too many years now.

It is extremely important to have this book, and make sure that the more intelligent among your loved ones read it, so as to pass on this precious knowledge of how things worked in the world, before the criminal destruction of our civilization by fiat produced from the U.S. This book makes clear the fraud, the deception, the stupidity, the greed, the anti-human criminal intent, all the motives and events that contributed to this gigantic, world monetary and financial mess whose total collapse we shall shortly witness, along with the collapse of the world's economy as we have known it.

This is a book vitally necessary for the younger men and women in the coming dark times, as a guide to comprehending what the blazes happened to their world, and where reconstruction - if it ever happens - must begin: with gold and silver as money.

This book is published by Larry Parks, of FAME.

Buy it!

Sierra

mikal

(05/19/2002; 11:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75995)

Pakistan and India

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Articleshow.asp?art_id=10387267
CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA
TIMES NEWS NETWORK�[ SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2002��8:52:48 PM ]
WASHINGTON: In the annals of nuclear weapons use discourse, it is a commonly accepted proposition that while Pakistan is all too ready to use the ultimate weapon in a war against India, New Delhi will exercise the option only as a retaliatory measure � what pundits call a second strike.
The reason often cited for Pakistan's hair-trigger nuclear stance is that it can never win a conventional war and its weapons are best used before they are "taken out". In fact, contemporary wisdom has it that Pakistan has barely enough resources to fight for 72-hour war, and a naval blockade of Karachi and shutting off the Indus waters will bring the country to its knees in no time.
But will the use of nukes bring Pakistan victory? No, say experts. If anything, it will invite its complete annihilation, because while India's broad land-mass will ensure a degree of survivability, smaller Pakistan will just go up in smoke.
............In the article, writer Peter Landesman relates a hair-raising conversation he has with a retired Pakistani brigadier who was serving as an aide to Benazir Bhutto. .............I asked him if he thought he was alone in his thoughts, and "Believe me," he went on, "If I were in charge, I would have already done it."
Aman stopped, as though he'd stunned even himself. Then he added, with quiet forcefulness, "Before I die, I hope I should see it."
It is this hopeless desperation that western officials are warning India about as New Delhi weighs the military option. A country without a future is quite willing to go down and try and take with it a country which is hopeful of its future despite its myriad problems.....click link for more

YGM

(05/19/2002; 11:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 75996)

balzac...GATA Info Links.......AND THOSE WHO HAVE TIME!

http://www.norfed.org/links.aspTop Link...NORFED Liberty Links...Find email addr @ links.

Greg Palast...(I've been working on him and further emails to him might make him take interest. Extremely well known and credible Journalist in Conspiracies)
http://www.gregpalast.com

Monetary Reform Canada Links...
http://www.themoneymasters.com/links.htm

FAME...Larry Parks...
http://www.fame.org/links.asp

Contact various journalists/contributors @ sites like WorldNet Daily...NewsMax...The New Australian...American Freedom News...etc..

*This is your best chance to promote GATA as the mainstream folk do not usually reply and you'll only hear silence. I know, I've been at it from GATA's humble beginnnings...

FORUMS are a good tool as you can plant a seed with just a few comments and GATA Link...www.gata.org/
These groups discussing Financial matters and even Gold are world-wide...and so are our computors...

London News Media should recieve a blitz from GATA supporters before the big conference upcoming with Bill Murphy speaking at it...Maybe where one email fails, many such will be noticed.....Good luck!.....YGM

Belgian

(05/19/2002; 12:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 75997)

Gold Indexes / Global taxes....

Thanks Golden Bear for responding. After I signaled the removal of Belgian Goldprice(s) on teletext ...YGM (Sharelynx), comes up with the removal of the major Gold-Indexes !!!-??? Any thoughts on this phenomenon ? IMVHO, this is an alarming pr�lude for something much bigger than speculated at first sight of it. Will it be a sudden re-installment of an adapted / mismatched / unilateral, Gold-Standard or Global Real Free Gold, with as less noise / VISIBILITY as possible !? Or are we simply paranoia ?

Global Taxes (YGM) : Create the confetti...distribute the confetti...and re-collect the confetti ! That's what makes this world go around, Sir. No *debt*, means no *democraty* into the definitions of all collectivities. Up until they all have to return finally and inevitably, to the barbarous relic, they hate/dispise so much. You can't tax even a portion of total debt away. Debt AND taxes increase at the same pace....kadoum...kadoum...kadoum !

Camel

(05/19/2002; 13:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 75998)

Lost worlds

One of the guests on Hardball the other night, a Pakistani, made what seems to me to be one of the best observations about the situation in the Mideast. It is not Isreal that is a threat to the Moslem world but rather it is America which is the threat with its values of democracy and the independence of the individual, its great products and pop culture. The entrenched clergy is deeply threatened by what they rightly perceive as a shift in cultural values that has been gradually occuring throughout the Moslem world. Bin Laden has said that the Moslem world was facing its gravest crisis since the begginning of Islam as all the old values are being swept away.

It isnt surprising that the countries of the Mideast and China would welcome a return to gold because it is so deeply engrained in their cultural heritage.All throughout the early stages of civilization the diverse empires were linked only by the great caravans and gold was one the primery mediums of exchange Great trading civilizations grew up around the caravan routes 1000 years before Christ in the area just above Afghanistan then called Bactria, after which the bactrian camel is named., giving rise to one of the earliest of the ancient religions Zoroastrianism.

I once heard the son of the prominant Tibetan Buddhist Chogyam Rinpoche say that he had to go to a western book stores to find out what Buddhism was (however this Chogyam Rinpoche character was considered a bit of a rounder even by Colorado standards.and probably didn't provide too good of an example to his son.)

Like wise with the Chinese their most significant piece of literature, the I Ching is almost unknown in its homeland and is carried on only as a sort of cult by a few 100,000 western practitioners,their history having been lost to them through a combination of their overly zealous Maoist bretheren and the incompetance of the early western scholars who were predominantly Christains or Jesuits and had an ax to grind.

Buddhism was the predominating influence in China for several centuries around 400-800 AD and China's claim on Tibet is rather dubious dating back to the time when Genghis Khan conquered China in 1200 AD and the Khan was converted to Buddhism by the Dali Lama of Tibet. Mongolia is to this day a Buddhist country and by this standard China should rightfully belong to Tibet instead of vise versa.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/19/2002; 14:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 75999)

If you don't... you'll probably later wish that you had.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

BRAZIL
Brazilian 20000 Reis

Big Country... Big Gold
Over One-Half Ounce

A rare treat by the new Republic of 1889

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

Waverider

(05/19/2002; 14:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76000)

The inflation blame game

http://news.haaretz.co.il/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=165290&contrassID=2⊂ContrassID=3&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y⁢emNo=165290Snippit: Jerusalem

"After three years of price stability, inflation has raised its head again, soaring by 3.9 percent in the first four months of this year - a rate substantially higher than the government target for 2002 of 2-3 percent for the entire year. The wholesale price index rose by 2 percent in April, indicating there are more price hikes in the pipeline. In addition, prices are up this month for gasoline, electricity and telephones. The government is also planning to increase value added tax by one percent starting in June and to impose additional taxes on labor, all of which will have a direct impact on inflation.

The public understands that when the budget deficit is so big and deep, there is a danger of an outbreak of inflation and a worsening of the balance of payments. The public fears a continuing recession which will lead to even further reduction in revenues from taxes and subsequently to an even deeper budget deficit, which will prompt the government to impose even higher taxes."

Waverider: Just as Belgian said, "Debt and taxes increase at the same pace." Incidentally, another suicide bomber struck today, killing 3 people and injuring 56 in the Netayna vegatable market. Considering Sharon exercised restraint following the last attack, I suspect fairly severe retaliation could occur shortly.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 15:07:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76001)

Re: Jimbo � AngloGold

You may have seen the list of Mega-Hedgers posted by sector (also on miningweb). You will notice that all the hedge books except Placer Dome are under water. Others and I have been saying that this would happen long before the Ashanti and Cambior hedge books exploded almost bring down these two companies. Ashanti barely survived only because the Ghana government threatened to nationalize and therefore deprive the bankers and Cambior may only be living on borrowed time � certainly they are just a shell of their former selves ads they sold off most of their assets.

I don't give advice as to how people should invest, however, I don't hold any hedged (forward sold or "short") miners because of the reasons outlined above. What's the point of holding shares in a company that gets hurt if Gold prices rise? I would say that defeats the purpose of hold Gold shares. I only hold shares in profitable non-hedgers like Harmony, Gold Fields, and Goldcorp. Meridian is another middle tier non-hedger, however, the others pay a dividend and that suggests that management is willing to share the wealth with the companies owners (the shareholder). There are also other reasons �briefly � Harmony is vertically integrated as a miner, refiner, marketer, and retailer, Gold Fields is arguably the best dividend paying company, Goldcorp will pay dividends in Gold and has the lowest cost ounces. But those are my reasons and I got in very close to the lows.

I tend to worry that the Mega-hedgers have built up such horrific forward sold positions that they will never get out from under this huge debt load and there is a very real risk of bankruptcy. It is also interesting that leveraged mining share investments like Barrick and Placer Dome can't even outperform physical Gold in a rising Gold market. There is something very wrong with that.

Now that non-hedged shares have risen so sharply it follows that physical Gold will follow higher as shares front run the Gold price. Now that most Gold miners have relatively high valuations and that physical Gold is still quite cheap, it follows that physical Gold will eventually (maybe soon) make good price gains. Right now physical is likely the best value as shares appear to have leveled off for now.

Anyway, I think that the if the price of Gold continues higher (and the losses mount on the Mega-Hedgers hedge books), I would be rather nervous holding shares as the price of Gold rises. It really is about the corporate bottom line and in a rising Gold market these companies are not adding to earnings but are suffering losses � something is very wrong with that picture. Unfortunately too many people fall in love with their shares. I have bought and sold shares as fundamentals change so that I usually pocket my cost basis and hopefully some profit while being invested in the remaining shares. Anyway that's my take on it. I can't tell you what to do, that's your decision.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW - Been fishing today with some luck (two browns), but much too windy � so off to the gym!

TownCrier

(05/19/2002; 15:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76002)

Building Legacies: Blair pitching for euro now, Brown later

http://www.sbpost.ie/story.jsp?bottomadvert=&rightadverts=&rightnav=/common/navs/right/sponsorsnav.jsp≤ftadverts=&advert=/common/adverts/top/homepagenew.htm&title=FrontPage&story=WCContent%3Bid-46295&list=Excerpts:

The Post (Dublin, Ireland, 19 May, 2002) -- So now we know. Tony Blair wants to take Britain into the euro in two years time.

A mood of inevitability swept out from Downing Street and fused through Westminster with an electrifying crackle on Wednesday, following an extraordinary interview granted by Blair to the BBC. ...boldly claiming he was prepared to stake his place in history as the man who led Britain into the single currency.

...Blair conceded there were divisions in public opinion over the euro, but said: "In my view, if the economics are in the right place, if the tests are met, then it is overwhelmingly in this country's interests to join."

...The markedly more dour Brown, on the other hand, has not offered the smallest hint that he sees joining the euro as an issue of any urgency. ... Brown knows that a referendum on the euro fought next year would be a gamble. By 2006, with the reality of euro notes and coins plain to all holidaying Britons soaking up the sun in the Costas, it would be a gentle stroll.

So there's the rub. Blair wants Britain in -- come hell or high water. Brown is more cautious -- perhaps, his critics say, because he wants to do the job himself, as prime minister.

...They have yet to deal with the one sticking point they would ignore at their peril: the exchange rate.

...The pound is currently overvalued by at least 10 per cent to the euro; some economists think the real figure could be as high as 30 per cent.

That is why the anti-euro camp believes there is a real risk that Britain could get locked in for good at too high a rate. They predict a collapse in Britain's export market that would throw thousands out of work, as no one could afford British goods abroad. Blair and Brown know it is impossible to talk down the value of the pound: the markets would immediately rumble it as political sleight of hand.

---------(click link for full article)----------

At this late stage in the game, good luck getting the pound down without wholesale government intervention (deficit spending, and how!) As a currency bloc, the international significance (i.e., finance usage) of sterling is falling off the map. No longer is it a peer among the "second tier" currencies in competition behind the dollar because several of these "second-class currencies" (such as the D-mark, F-franc) have joined ranks to challenge the dollar on its own level. In other words, for international borrowers specifically looking for dollar alternatives, why choose to borrow in contracting (deflating) pounds of a little currency bloc when the expanding euro is now a viable option?

It seems to me that the advent of the euro through a combination (and elimination) of the second tier peer group of currencies has effectively hastened the timeline of the sterling currency by rendering it obsolete for international usage. Exporters can expect to struggle as it contracts. What will parliament do? Will the British government become the "borrower of last resort" to weaken the pound?

Maybe the U.S. will gain some insights on currency timelines by watching the events both in Japan and the UK? Watch Argentina, too, for lessons on the fallout of lost confidence and the imposition of capital controls.

Physical gold keeps looking better and better as the most prudent means to store your savings.

R.

Chris Powell

(05/19/2002; 16:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76003)

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy prepares for mining analyst conference in London

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1110GATA Chairman Bill Murphy prepares for the
conference of mining analysts in London:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1110

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Boilermaker

(05/19/2002; 16:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76004)

O'Neill asks others to stop what he's doing

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020519/economy_ebrd_oneill_investors_1.htmlReuters Business Report
O'Neill: E.Europe Must Curb Graft

By Glenn Somerville

BUCHAREST, Romania (Reuters) - Eastern Europe must develop more efficient governments that curb corruption to attract the investment needed to complete the transition from communism to a free market, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said on Sunday.

Speaking to the annual meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, he praised the bank's efforts to create a more attractive investment climate but said the region needs to do more to draw in the private capital it needs.

Comment;
Paul needs to spend some time preaching to the hometown pimps, whores and politicians.

slingshot

(05/19/2002; 16:54:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76005)

Seige Engine

Gold to $312.00 or Higher?The Lord of the Castle and his Knight stood motionless as they listened to the clamor and shouts of the Goldbugs to Free Gold. They knew the effect it was having on the men.
To show his men courage, the Lord ordered that His Table and Chair be brought to the wall. Finally the lines of Goldbugs retired to the woods, leaving only the trebuchet to continue. He watch as stone after stone was hurled against him. If only he could destroy that machine. He watch as those tiny ants across the field prepared each firing. How busy they are and focused upon one thing. To bring the tower down. The day was coming to an end and the setting sun now revealed the subtle contours of the field. The Goldbugs have lit tourches around the trebuchet unaware of the eyes upon it as they go about their business of war. The Lord looks into night sky and smiles as he sees the moon is at its quarter phase. Enough light for the horse, but not for a man. The Lord of the castle jumps to his feet startling the Knight, and shouts out commands. Bring me the stablemen. Everyone of them! Get me the Captain of the Guard! Bring me the metalworker! He looks again at the trebuchet and under his breath says, I have a plan.

Operative

(05/19/2002; 16:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76006)

@ Boilermaker

In regards to your post ... a simple Amen.

Golden Bear

(05/19/2002; 17:31:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76007)

Boilermaker (msg#: 76004)

"...Paul needs to spend some time preaching to the hometown pimps, whores and politicians..."

Not possible, since he is one of them, and at the top of dirty rotten pile.

Cheers.

Jimbo

(05/19/2002; 17:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76008)

Thanks, Black Blade!

Black Blade, I really appreciated your responsive answer, which helped me resolve my issues concerning hedgers and non-hedgers. I noticed you didn't mention Durban among the gold shares you own (Harmony, Gold Fields and Goldcorp). Would you mind sharing why you don't own Durban?

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 18:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76009)

Fast, Furious Rallies May Be Mirage

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20020518/bs_nm/column_stocks_week_dc_1

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Get ready for a summer market that will be bubbling over with relief rallies or just plain one-day wonders that will eventually fall flat. The reason: The stock market has become vulnerable to outsized reactions to economic news and corporate events. It's proof that the desert isn't the only place where you can see a summer mirage. "The savage beating most stocks suffered recently has made investors desperate for any good news," says James Dines, publisher of The Dines Letter, a financial publication.

Hard money people have jumped into gold because the precious metal has a very good track record of forecasting the returns on the stock market. In April, for instance, gold mutual funds were the best performers of all types of funds, gaining 6.4 percent while U.S. stock funds lost 3.9 percent. Gold's surge to a two-year high of more than $310 an ounce may not be awesome. But what's significant is the rally has been fueled by one of the biggest buying binges ever, comparable with the frenzy in 1996, as speculators/investors bet on continued dollar weakness and inflationary pressures from soaring oil prices. There's talk that gold could reach $500 an ounce before the rally flames out. While gold may be viewed by New Economy investors as a "barbarous relic" with no modern role to play, it remains the main safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. Gold provides a safety net, an insurance policy against financial risks. It also has an uncanny ability to distinguish between the relative and absolute strength of currencies.

Black Blade: Can you say irrational exuberance? I knew you could. Still stocks (particularly techs), are grossly overvalued. The valuations are very high on unrealistic expectations. We will likely see several suckers rallies in coming months only to see those poor souls who were taken bemoan their losses. In this way, the Wall Street Pimps with collusion from the Financial Media Trolls will fleece every last penny from the lemmings. This is exactly how it played out in the Great Depression as the stock market see-sawed lower with several market rallies. Gold will react similarly by a upward trend that will see-saw higher.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 18:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76010)

Re: Jimbo - Durban

I used to have Durban shares, however, after several embarrassing episodes with illegal activities by Roger Kebbles and with collusion from John "bangles" Stratton, I became disillusioned with the company. Not to mention several horrible forays into Australia that ended very badly. Now that Kebbles is gone and Stratton given the heave-ho. I probably would be more likely to look at Durban again. I am waiting to see if they stick to their word and unwind their hedges by June. If they do unwind the hedge book - that is also quite promising. Of course the nearly 700% increase from recent lows has not gone unnoticed either. As it is, I haven't been actively investing as my plate is full. I am just kicking back collecting dividend checks while I sit on the growing "Bone Pile". I probably would be adding a bit more to my physical position considering the price imbalance between shares, physical, and the fundamentals that suggest a higher Gold price. However, I think that there is a lot of upside potential for shares and physical from current levels. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 18:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76011)

Stock 'Inflation' Keeping Lid on Rallies

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020518/bizstocks_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wonder why the stock market doesn't move in the same direction with this year's upbeat forecasts for the U.S economy and corporate America? One possible reason: The U.S. market has been flooded with shares since the end of the bull market two years ago and there aren't enough buyers to absorb the flow.

Black Blade: Remember Pets.com and drkoop.com? New unsustainable businesses go public all the time and they compete for dwindling available funds. Also think of existing corporations that issue more and more shares thereby diluting the base of a company's shares. This is happening more and more.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 18:45:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76012)

The Valuation Conundrum

http://biz.yahoo.com/smart/020517/20020510aheaofthecurv_17.html
Snippit:

Even after significant losses in 2000, 2001 and so far in 2002, the P/E of the S&P 500 remains today about as high today as it has ever been. The 29.5 P/E registered last year-end was an all-time record. To update Fisher, it's as though "stock valuations have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." This is the valuation conundrum: What is there about stocks now that makes investors willing to value them so richly, and for so long? Is there any possible rational explanation for today's epoch of high equity valuations? Perhaps investors believe that corporate earnings can grow faster now than they have in the past. That's certainly possible, but so far in this epoch of high valuation it hasn't materialized.

Black Blade: Actually this is wrong!!! The S&P 500 P/E ratio is closer to 60. The reason that these numbers touted by the S&P are so wrong is that they are based on "operating earnings". That is earnings before costs. Also, even under GAAP many expenses are not counted. Recently the S&P announced that they will count the cost of corporate options. That will effect companies such as Cisco, Oracle, Microsoft, etc. that expense options. However, there are other ways to "cook the books".

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 18:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76013)

Global View: Au revoir, dollar!

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=17052002-102127-3873r
Snippit:

Booming stock market, strong growth, fiscal surplus, strong dollar: one by one the elements of the US boom of the 1990s are saying good-bye. We have all four in sequence. One, two and three are gone. The fourth, the strong dollar, is just beginning to go.

Why has the dollar been so strong? We come back to the first element in the U.S. boom in the second half of the 1990s: the surge in the U.S. stock market, a surge that since the first quarter of 2000 has not proven sustainable, but which helped to push up U.S. growth and to draw huge amounts of foreign capital into the United States.

In 1995 purchases of U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasuries (stocks and corporate and municipal bonds) amounted to $96 billion. Two years later, in 1997, that inflow doubled to $198 billion, and by four years later, 1999, the annual inflow had quadrupled, to $345 billion. But the capital inflow was also into non-financial assets. Investments were made. Land was bought. Companies were purchased.

Black Blade: As US investing loses its luster (such as declining stock markets and lower returns on bonds), the foreign money goes home and into safe havens or a "flight to quality". The US Dollar weakens and Gold strengthens. As a counter-cyclical investment Gold is doing much better. The fundamentals for Wall Street have weakened considerably, therefore Gold should have a lot of room to move higher as cash flees to more solid holdings.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 18:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76014)

Gold Higher and USD Sinking

Well look at that! The USD falling below 113 and Gold gains a buck!

Paper Avalanche

(05/19/2002; 20:30:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76015)

The current Maginot Line

IMHO, $312 has the same signifigance to TPTB that $300 had a few weeks ago. That seems to be the price at which TPTB throw the kitchen sink at the market. Interesting.

The paper avalanche is unavoidable.

PA

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 21:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76016)

Which CEO's Greed Scared Off Buffett

http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1021651836.html
Snippit:

Berkeley, California, May 17 (Bloomberg) -- The most interesting message Warren Buffett delivered to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. last week was that his outrage toward CEOs was growing fast.

After pointing out that chief executive officers of public companies are the only people in our economy who effectively decide what they are going to pay themselves, Buffett went on to call the attitude of the greedier members of the species ``shameful.'' As his sidekick, Charlie Munger, put it, ``There comes a time when you ought to be thinking more about the company than just a couple of extra million for yourself.''

Then Buffett and Munger let slip an interesting fact: They had dumped their shares in some company after they saw what the CEO was paid. ``We felt we couldn't stomach it,'' Buffett said.

Black Blade: I would venture that most CEO's are charlatans and don't even rate compensation above the lowest janitor. These guys have proven that they are only concerned with getting their gang together and plunder the company. The worst part about it is that the shareholders tend to vote their proxies however the board recommends instead of standing up like bipedal hominids and taking a stand.

Canuck

(05/19/2002; 21:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76017)

Paper Avalanche

Every dime is a issue to the PTB at this point.

When gold breaches the Sept/Oct 1999 level, well, Katie bar the door.

Canuck

(05/19/2002; 21:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76018)

@ BB

Don't be complacent amigo, there is a mountain of cash ready to be deployed.

At this point in my proverty stricken life I don't care if it's sheep manure, I want in before it starts.

It's some Queen's birthday tomorrow, Canada is off, you guys are set for next week-end, Memorial Day, no?

Canuck.

Canuck

(05/19/2002; 21:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76019)

@ Jimbo

Not jumping in for BB, but I thought I'd offer my 2 bits.

I equate Durban (US) to Kinross North of '49. Nice run but will it last when the heat is on?

When gold broke that 302/306 resistance I let a couple intermediate hedgers go and a couple flaky juniors. How do you know if one of them is going to blow up at 305/310/312?

More will pop at 320/330/354 +. Sooner or later the last thing one will pure plays, physical and ?.

Canuck

(05/19/2002; 21:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76020)

@ sector

Those are ALARMING statistics, I didn't realize it was that BAD.

Looks like a easy, peasy squeeze. Why don't the GGTB (good guys that be) simply squeeze for another 2 quarters and blow this thing up?

Two or 3 billion will open this up LARGE.

Black Blade

(05/19/2002; 21:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76021)

Doomsayers Ring Alarm Bells on Recovery

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=980211
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the giant U.S. economy zooms out of its first recession in a decade, some doomsayers keep sounding alarm bells that the rebound is poised to sour into a deeper funk -- a so-called "double-dip" recession.

The grim scenario goes something like this: consumer spending stumbles, unemployment shoots higher, stocks head for another nosedive, dormant inflation turns into suffocating deflation. And the Federal Reserve, having already slashed short-term rates to 40-year lows of 1.75 percent to spur growth, will have little room left to cut rates any more. "The odds of a double-dip in the U.S. economy are not nearly as low as you have been led to believe," warned Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

He was a lone voice in predicting recession in early 2001 and for months, has argued persistently that a return to recession is on the way. Just recently U.S. stocks faltered and the dollar trembled as investors fretted that the U.S. economy was headed for more trouble since a much-awaited recovery in corporate profits was nowhere on the horizon.

Black Blade: Some would have us believe that hiding our heads in the sand is preferable. We must always be vigilant and expose weaknesses so they may be corrected. Yet the Wall Street Pimps and Financial Media Trolls prefer to have look at the world through rose-colored glasses.

Waverider

(05/19/2002; 22:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76023)

India Streamlines Forces, Pakistan Relations Tense

http://www.dailyhotnews.com/inter_3.htmlSnippit:
"India announced measures to streamline its armed forces on Sunday as tensions with enemy Pakistan threatened to erupt into war. New Delhi, which has accused Pakistan of sponsoring militant assaults on India, put its border paramilitary forces under the army's control instead of the Interior Ministry and the coastguard under the navy's supervision.

Former Indian army chief General Ved Prakash Malik said the moves were a significant step that showed a "readiness (for a war but) it does not signal that we are going for a war."

The military changes came after a late night cabinet security meeting and followed India's expulsion on Saturday of Pakistan's chief envoy in protest over Tuesday's army camp raid. India had already recalled its own envoy from Islamabad."

Waverider: I think it will take a miracle for this not to erupt into full-blown war given the recent escalation of tensions and these latest moves by India. The Karachi KSE is currently down 6.5%.

(05/19/2002; 23:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76024)

EDITED REPOST: ANGLO GOLD: Jimbo/ Black Blade

My message #76022 was removed about 45 minutes after I posted it. I have edited it and am now reposting it to
hopefully make it acceptable to the editors based on what
I am guessing could be the problem. If this is not
acceptable, please explicitly state what the problem is.

ANGLO GOLD: Jimbo / Black Blade

SENTENCE REDACTED

Recent press reports indicate that Anglo Gold is actively
reducing its hedge book in line with new market expectations
for the gold price.

It seems that the Company has the capacity, as well, to
expand production to sell into the spot market as the price
of gold rises.

My opinion is that (PHRASE ADDED)
Anglo Gold is a very well managed gold mine company and as
of Friday May 17, 2002 CNBC/MSNBC gives the latest
price earnings ratios and dividend percentage yields of:

P/E ------------------------24.40

Dividend Yield---------------2.80 %

How many gold mining companies can beat that? Please list
them for me.

Remember, some of the non-hedged companies have run up in
price considerably, a fact that would raise the P/E and
lower the dividend yield %.

AX

-----------------------------

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 00:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76025)

Hedgers wipe out more than $1-bn

http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A85256BBD0009E398?OpenDocument
Snippit:

PRINCETON, New Jersey -- Placer Dome [PDG] is the sole remaining major hedger with a positive mark-to-market value on its hedge book, some $235 million to the good at the end of March, but that's about where the good news ends. The combined value of hedge programmes run by the major producers, including currency and related derivative instruments, had a negative value approaching $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. The hedge programmes cover more than 70 million ounces of gold; equivalent to nearly a full year of new mine production.

The books of the largest hedgers swung violently as the leading foursome by ounces committed � Barrick [ABX], AngloGold [AU], Placer Dome and Newmont [NEM] � saw their balance sheets weaken by close on $1 billion. The top four account for over 50 million ounces of hedge commitments, half of those against Barrick's name alone.

Gold Hedge Books...Mark-to-market-$USDMillions..... Hedged [Million oz]
Barrick....................................($127)...............................................24.00
AngloGold.........................�.($495)...............................................12.90
Placer Dome.......................�.$235.................................................8.60
Newmont...........................�.($411)...............................................7.30
Newcrest ...........................�.($492) ..............................................6.00
Aurion Gold...........................($247)............................................... 5.50
Ashanti ..............................�($106) ...............................................5.10
Lihir .....................................�(NA)................................................2.50
Cambior ............................�($29.80) .............................................1.20

Totals ..............................�..($1,673)..............................................73.10

Black Blade: If your forward sold position is already accounted for in the share price, then the question is how to acquire new or unhedged ounces to meet the rising POG. In the face of declining production the situation becomes more precarious. Note that most of these companies report in terms of "operating earnings" where many liabilities are not disclosed, therefore reported P/E ratios can be misleading.

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 00:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76026)

Dollar's Fall vs Yen, Euro Likely to Continue: Currency Outlook

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOZkUxZ3RG9sbGFy
Snippit:

New York, May 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall for a fifth week in six as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon, slowing a rebound in the world's biggest economy. Rising U.S. retail sales, better-than-expected company earnings and quickening inflation signal the recovery may have taken hold enough to prompt Fed policy makers to raise interest rates from a 40-year low as soon as August, analysts say.

Black Blade: So far tonight the USD has dipped below 113 and Gold bumped higher as much as $1.20.

Old Yeller

(05/20/2002; 00:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76027)

Ax,walking forward,looking backwards

A Trail Guide viewpoint for you,

But,Western traders had falllen asleep in their basic understanding of gold and certainly paper substitutes.Over the years,the very dollar system they had expected to fail had been slowly transforming the pricing mechanism and the nature of world gold holdings.As contract gold was inflated to meet the needs of ever more sophisticated traders and hedgers,paper gold was seen as having a physical gold backing tracking longevity every bit as good as the dollar.No one expected the dollar to be displaced'so leveraging non-physical gold in the form of dollar based contracts must be an easier,cheaper,more highly leveraged ticket.Sure,the dollar would be taken down a bit and price inflation would return,but the world was never going to leave this reserve system.In this stupor type reasoning,it made no difference whether real gold was behind the paper so long as it tracked the physical price.For confirmation of this reasoning,just visit some of the gold forums and listen to the traders.Even some on our forum are completely unbaised towards paper gold's worth.Is it no wonder that,in time,paper trading grew until it became the physical price.

Again,no one considered what would happen if the dollar was transitioned away from being the reserve.Well,they must have thought;if it were to happen,whatever new reserve that came along would just offer the same paper system and we would just trade over it.Wrong!Suddenly,the ECB has it in it's charter the marking of gold to market,at whatever it's worldly price would reach and in Euros no less.

But here,we have the entire American dollar based contract gold market predicated on a limited commodity price range policy,pushed in the US,that kept gold in a pocket of dollar valuation.Not allowing it to leave this range allowed the growth of paper only gold because the outside extremes of price risk(both top and bottom)was known.Now we have a real threat that the Euro could unseat the dollar and allow gold to seek whatever level physical demand would allow.Can you say unlimited risk? msg #44

GOLDENPROPHECY

(05/20/2002; 01:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76028)

A note on gold prices by mahendra sharma

I saw a great day for gold and gold stocks last thursday, and it happeened as I predicted.
After watching friday's action, MARS is indicating that a great movement in gold is
coming for next 4 days. During this week gold will hit new high for this year. Just keep
me posted how you do after this advance in gold stcoks.

God Bless

Mahendra Sharma

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 01:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76029)

U.S., Russia to discuss energy deal

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6DFADF9F%2D624C%2D45F1%2DA8E9%2DA568F0109D25%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The summit meeting of U.S. and Russian leaders this week could result in an unprecedented energy security deal whereby the Russians would make up for any U.S. oil supply shortfall in the event of global disruptions, according to a published report.

In return, the Russians would get an American commitment to help develop Russia's own energy resources as well as to work together to integrate Central Asia into the world's markets, Newsweek magazine reports in its upcoming May 27 edition, citing administration insiders.

Black Blade: Could get very "interesting" as there is a growing Islamic fundamentalist movement in Central Asia. Recently there have been reports that Russia will restart old and build new nuclear reactors for domestic use so that they can sell more petroleum to the west.

(05/20/2002; 02:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76030)

@ Black Blade and others

If the hedge books of the major miners blow up. Who stand to gain? Will not the banks and the Fed gain in this by accessing gold in the ground?
Thank you and keep on trucking.
OZ fron Yamba, NSW

(05/20/2002; 02:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76031)

Black Blade

Sold all my aussie hedgers. No more Newcrest, Sons of Gwalia, Aurion and Lihir. The balance of Aurion and lihir were the last to go today. The problem is there are only smaller companies unhedged and their time has not come yet. I have Durban, Resolute, Dioro and Newmont of which I sold 40% of my holdings in Australia last week.
I feel better and ready to start over again gradually and with both eyes open reading all forums. I believe gold is going through the roof and we should be in unhedged.

(05/20/2002; 02:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76032)

Russian Oil and Gas and gold hedging

That the West would seek to import more Russian Oil and Gas
was an inevitable outcome of the current Middle East crisis.

Such a program, if successful, should tend to stabilize
petroleum prices. How then, will this affect the price of
gold?

This is the sort of question gold mining companies ask
themselves when they decide to embark on a hedging program.

Hedging gold for a gold miner is just a educated determination of what the price of gold will be versus
time. A non hedger believes the price of gold will rise
basically straight up. A hedger thinks that maybe the
pattern will be more circumtuitous.

In either event, large partially hedged gold mining companies with substantial reserves and aggressive brown and green field
development and exploration projects, as well as dormant
properties with lower grade ore, can usually adjust to
new circumstances such as a newly directed upward gold
price.

It would be much different for an individual or company
that was not in the gold mining business. Without the
ability to produce into a forward sale, anyone caught with
short positions in a rising market would naturally soon
be bankrupt. This is not the case with gold miners who
can produce the actual gold - as long as their costs are
below the price received for their forward sales, even
though the forward sales are below the current spot price.

AX

Spartacus

(05/20/2002; 03:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76034)

Federal Reserve Seeks Shift in Its Operations as Lender of Last Resort

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGARG2Z7C1D.html
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Federal Reserve on Friday unveiled a significant shift in its operations as the nation's lender of last resort. It proposed making it more expensive for banks to borrow directly from the Fed.
-----
"This is a major departure from current policy. We will as an industry have to evaluate it very carefully," said Keith Leggett, senior economist at the American Bankers Association.

Spartacus: A minor or major event?

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 03:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76035)

Re: OZ and ax

Re: OZ � Who Wins?

I can give an example. I had worked on a few projects for defunct gold miner Pegasus gold. They got into a bit of trouble with an Aussie property "Mount Todd". To make a long story short they were taken over by the bankers and are now a privately owned miner controlled by the bankers and now operate under the name Apollo Gold. Chances are Gold miners that are short Gold will probably end up like Pegasus unless they can cover in short order. Cambior and Ashanti are other good examples of what can go wrong. The reason the Normandy battle was so important was that AngloGold had to acquire more ounces and Newmont upset those plans. Now Newmont is suffering under the acquired Normandy hedge book and AngloGold is still looking for cheap ounces to deliver. The miningweb article demonstrates how the hedged miners are digging themselves a very deep hole. Soon we may see many more bankers in the mining business. Cheers!

Re: ax

Of course the shares of the non-hedgers have rocketed higher while the hedgers have moved slowly. The investing public wants shares that will rise along with Gold. The shares of the hedged miners have not done nearly as well because the price is fixed and they have done very little if any exploration over the last several years (in fact few miners have done any exploration). I do not see where AngloGold will be able to expand mining operations � even now they are producing fewer ounces than the last few years. They have also sold off some mines, including a couple to Harmony. If a miner cannot make a profit by utilizing good management and cost cutting, then there is something seriously wrong. Nimble miners with excellent management do not need to short their product and leave themselves exposed to margin risk from counter parties. After all, isn't the whole purpose of owning Gold mining shares is to participate in a rising Gold market rather than give a "loan" to a Gold miner that is short Gold?Anyway, physical gold looks much better now as other fundamental risks are beginning to take center stage.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 04:35:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76036)

The Next Oil Frontier

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_21/b3784008.htm

Snippit:

How America's soldiers, oilmen, and diplomats are carving out a new sphere of influence on Russia's borders. Estimates of the Caspian oil pool vary greatly--from 200 billion barrels, on the level of a Saudi Arabia, to fewer than 100 billion barrels, still on a par with the reserves of the North Sea and at current oil prices worth $2.7 trillion. Besides, world oil prices are highly sensitive even to relatively small increments of additional production. The Caspian could have a huge impact on the ability of OPEC to influence the oil market, says a U.S. government energy analyst. By 2010, the Caspian could claim 3% of global oil output, according to Moscow brokerage Renaissance Capital.

Key to the game are the pipelines, where diplomacy and oilcraft meet. The Caspian is a landlocked sea. Its vast oil output must be piped overland to the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, or the Persian Gulf before it can be pumped into tankers. The U.S. wants a pipeline that will help its friends in the region and freeze out its enemies--especially the Iranians, also located on the Caspian. That's why Washington is strongly discouraging plans by some oil majors to lay a pipeline across Iran, lobbying instead for a proposed $3 billion, 1,090-mile pipeline to carry up to 1 million barrels of oil a day from Baku through Georgia to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in NATO ally Turkey.

Black Blade: Very "Interesting" article. Something will have to give as the North Sea and Canterell Fields "have peaked" and are declining production. The Caspian region is not necessarily all that stable. However, oil is that important to the Global Economy that we will use military force to obtain it if necessary.

Gold Standard

(05/20/2002; 05:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76037)

A modern fairy tale

I'm not going to post a link to Carl Andersen's thought-provoking essay "Once Upon A Time", as this post may be deleted.

I just thought that I would share with you my recent experience. My wife is a senior (Year 12) level teacher at a Government school in Australia. After the annual Australian federal budget last week, she asked me "What is deficit budgeting, in terms that I can explain to my students?"

Well, after an impromptu ECO 101 lecture on fractional reserve banking, debt, balance of trade, and printing money, in what I thought were fairly simple terms, her eyes simply glazed over, and she said "I can't explain that to the kids!" {COROLLARY: That won't wash with the brain-dead retards that I have to teach!}

It was then that I chanced across Carl Andersen's wonderful essay, and I cut and pasted the following from it:-

START SNIP>

"The other big problem is if the only way for money to come into existence is for someone to borrow it, then there is never enough money to pay the bank back. Huh? How could that be you ask?"

"It works something like this: Say you had an island with five farms on it and you decided to give those farms to five different people who would live there forever. The only rule is that you get to be the banker and print all the money so before these five new farmers can buy tools or even eggs from each other, they need some money. So you (the banker) agree to loan each farmer $100 for one year at ten percent interest. That means that in one year, each farmer will have to pay you $110.00. They promise that they will pay you the $110 or give you their farm."

"Let's see how this would work: You loan $100 to each farmer so there is a total of $500 circulating in our little "economy." The farmers grow their crops and their animals and buy and sell to each other for a year. The day comes they must all pay you your $110. The first farmer pays you $110 and thanks you for the loan. Since you (the banker) now have $110 of the original $500 that was in circulation, there is now only $390 left in circulation. The second farmer pays you $110 and thanks you for the loan. There is now $280 left in circulation. The third farmer pays you $110 and thanks you for the loan. Now there is $170 left in circulation. The fourth farmer pays you the $110 he owes you, leaving $60 in circulation."

"The last farmer approaches you with a long face. Farmer number five says that he doesn't have enough money to pay your money back. He explains he had a hard year and even though his friends, the other four farmers, loaned him all the money they had to help him pay, he still only has $60. You make a sympathetic face but you smile inside because you know that there never was enough money for him to pay. You tell him you're sorry but remind him of your agreement."

END SNIP<

This just blew away the Managing Director, and she said to me "No, this isn't right", and I expended a lot of my Valuable Hot Air convincing her that this was indeed the financing industry in microcosm.

To all on the Trail - seek out Carl Andersen's masterpiece, and use it convince the doubters!

Cheers & BOL!

Gold Standard

(05/20/2002; 05:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76038)

Sir Black Blade

I put up the proposition a couple of days ago that "The Collective", the democratic voting mass, would respond to a new energy crisis by overriding any environmental controls over the energy industry, irrespective to any potential (real or imagined) harm.

I certainly hope that I did not offend you - it is just my theory of what is going to happen.

The Collective is, unfortunately, demographically (democratically?) stupid enough to support anything, including a war, that claims to guarantee their way of life.

Indeed, a lot of the "cost" of energy is really a "taxation" of energy issue, and it is going to be a particularly difficult decision for a popularly elected government to reduce its taxation of an energy product (such as gasoline), and surreptitiously increase its taxation base elsewhwere.

Just my thoughts - I fervently hope that it does not come to pass.

Cheers!

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 06:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76039)

US Dollar Dives

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
Look at that chart!

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 06:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76040)

NY Gold Punished

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
It appears that the NY Gold market is getting off to a rough start. This is not a very nice graph.

Cavan Man

(05/20/2002; 07:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76041)

Black Blade

The war is on again, this being Monday. Each trading day is a battle. When will POG be free after the opposing side's Waterloo?

sector

(05/20/2002; 07:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76042)

"Rounf Trip Trades"

Is This the Method that Central Banks Use to Lower the Price of Gold?Enron Was Just The Beginning
Bad News Plagues Energy Trading Industry

May 19, 2002
By BRAD FOSS, Associated Press

www.ctnow.com/business/hc...2Dbusiness

NEW YORK -- The badly bruised energy trading industry drew more negative attention this past week as companies released details about phony power swaps and announced the resignations of executives who oversaw them. With the stock prices of industry leaders Dynegy Inc. and Reliant Resources Inc. at all-time lows, and their peers close behind, Wall Street analysts said Friday they are assigning minimal or no value to these companies' energy trading units until some semblance of trust can be restored.

The latest embarrassment - closely following Enron Corp.'s accounting gimmickry and accusations of market manipulation in California - was directed at "round-trip" trading, in which one company sells power to another and then buys it back at the same price.

Dynegy, Reliant and CMS Energy Corp. have acknowledged that some of their employees engaged in such transactions to inflate trading volume and, presumably, their reputations. But analysts said the bogus transactions might have artificially raised wholesale electricity prices and, to some extent, their own expectations for industry growth.

It's not the biggest shoe to drop for an industry whose pioneer, Enron, imploded in scandal and remains mired in subsequent bankruptcy proceedings. But the revelations about round-trip trading further eroded energy traders' credibility.

"It may have been less widespread than we think," Prudential Securities analyst Carol Coale said of the round-trip trading, "but there's no way of knowing."

As a result, investors have pummeled the shares of companies that trade power and natural gas, essentially calculating the value of their units devoted to energy production and sales, and little else.

Credit-rating agencies, meanwhile, have issued a slew of downgrades and warnings in recent weeks, making it more difficult for energy merchants to borrow money and conduct their day-to-day affairs.

Credit downgrades have plagued the industry in the past year by forcing energy merchants to promise cash or other assets as collateral for long-term supply contracts and, by extension, increasing the cost of doing business. In response, companies have issued stock, sold assets and cut back on expansion plans.

"Everybody's still bracing for more bad news," said William Maze, an analyst at Banc of America Securities.

"It just seems that every time you shake this industry, something falls out," he added.

On Monday, Reliant's chief executive said the round-trip trades conducted by "misguided employees" puffed up its electricity trading volumes by 20 percent and boosted annual revenues by 10 percent between 1999 and 2001.

Two days later, CMS Energy of Dearborn, Mich., which made round-trip trades with both Dynegy and Reliant, said $4.4 billion of its business was derived this way.

And on Thursday, both companies announced the resignations of executives in charge of their power trading businesses. Analysts say the cloud hanging over the industry won't disappear easily. "It takes a long time for management to regain credibility and trust. Some can regain it in a couple of quarters and some never regain it," Coale said. "Even the credibility of auditors is in question."

A lack of oversight is at the heart of the matter for many other industry observers, including those recognized as helping to craft deregulated energy markets.

Richard Tabors, president of an energy consultancy in Cambridge, Mass., and a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the energy merchants are in large part to blame for their own image problems. "This is the old Greek story about hubris, a lot of people pushing the system as far as it could be pushed," Tabors said.

While Tabors dismisses some of the political hand-wringing over the ills of energy deregulation as overdone, he said proponents of free markets have conversely not gone far enough in condemning the industry's misdeeds or promoting new ways of policing it. "If you're designing new markets and it turns out they don't work, you have to be in a position to fix them," he said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Simple. Just keep selling to one another at ever lower prices. Both parties still have the same gold inventory.

Waverider

(05/20/2002; 09:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76043)

Spot's Frisky

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlSpot is heading north of $314.00

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/20/2002; 10:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76045)

In bookstores for $14.95 (plus tax). Get it here for ONLY $5.95 ($3 postage)!

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

canamami

(05/20/2002; 10:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76046)

Gold at over $316.00

eom

YGM

(05/20/2002; 10:56:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76047)

Spot....

Maybe, Just Maybe.......Spot has switched from High Jump to Pole Vault in the Cabal Olympics....Somebody pull that lever for the 'Limit Up' days........YGM.

YGM

(05/20/2002; 11:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76048)

Time for a Little........"Chain Reaction" from the Hedge Book Crowd....

Last man out folds the tents....Let the media control Cabal freaks keeps the sheep in the dark by suppressing all the moves in PMs and PM Stocks. Money goes where money is and the pos gains on Gold and Silver based investments will reach out and grab the world by the you know whats & SOON!.....Those who made out big in Dot Com Mania won't believe what's coming.....Now how can I get my screen to balance on my belly in a Hammock, and hold this Corona @ the same time?

YGM

(05/20/2002; 11:19:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76049)

Best GATA/MURPHY News Article to Date........ALRIGHT!!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={BB1D3B1A-3304-4BAB-B2D1-C3A883A2C61C}&siteid=yhoo
THOM CALANDRA'S STOCKWATCH

Gold market attracts bigger money
Experts see flows into large, small miners

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:19 PM ET May 20, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - When the saints come marching in, you want to be in their number.

The gold market, surging Monday, is luring large investors stymied by low or negative returns in their core stock-market holdings. Managers of $100 million or more are establishing hundreds of new positions in Placer Dome Gold, Anglogold, Gold Fields and Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest gold producer,

U.S. stock indexes lose steam
Software stocks lead tech retreat
Nymex energy futures lower, but gold gains
Ford bumps CFO Inglis for old-guard exec Gilmour

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As of March 30, 83 investment firms alone had bought shares of Newmont Mining for the first time, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The managers bought a total of 14.2 million shares, or 6 percent of the Newmont total held by financial institutions and money managers, according to a survey by 13Fpro. The new Newmont holders include Oz Management, which runs the Covered Call Fund, a strategy that benefits by writing call options on stocks that are rising.

"Performance attracts money," said Robert Bishop, editor of Gold Mining Stock Report. Bishop said large investors, such as fund managers and pension funds, are finding it hard to ignore the scorecard: North American gold mining stocks up 30 percent since Jan. 2, bullion itself up 16 percent, Nasdaq 100 down 18 percent.

Bishop, who has been tracking large and small gold, silver and diamond miners for more than 25 years at his California-based service, says he noticed a subtle change in the way investors treated shares of Newmont Mining when the company reported a mixed quarter last week.

Newmont of Denver estimated operating profits for the year, based on the current gold price of $312 or so an ounce, would amount to between 40 and 50 cents a share. That was 10 percent to 20 percent below what Wall Street and Toronto analysts were forecasting for the company, which earlier this year completed a three-way merger with Australia's Normandy Mining and Canada's Franco-Nevada.

"Yet the stock had almost no profit taking," said Bishop, who acknowledges the company's estimated operating cash flow for this year, about $2 a share, makes the almost-$30 stock look expensive. "I think a lot of folks want to own Newmont because they believe gold is going far higher." Some 4.4 million Newmont shares now change hands each day on the New York Stock Exchange, an average that is almost double levels from six months ago.

Bishop says the financial world is getting its first demonstration of a sustained gold rally in an Internet-ready age. He pointed to a sharp, two-day rally, on record-breaking share volumes, of Central Fund of Canada (CEF: news, chart, profile), a $110 million closed-end fund that stores gold and silver in its vaults. The fund, an electronic proxy for gold, 11 trading days ago surged in price, bringing its premium to the net asset value of its holdings to almost 25 percent from 6 percent.

Central Fund shares, traded on the AMEX in New York, still hold that premium, with the shares closing in on their May 7 high of $4.65 a share. The fund's rise, with spot gold and silver trading in a steady but narrow price band, shows "people want to own gold as soon as they can," Bishop said.

Bill Murphy, the publisher of gold magazine LeMetropoleCafe.com on the Web, deserves credit for getting the gold story before an online audience, said Bishop. "He stuck with gold through a long bear market and put it in front of a loyal and growing audience," said Bishop.

Murphy, a onetime commodities trader and a former professional football player for the Boston Patriots, runs subscription LeMetropoleCafe.com from Dallas. Some on Wall Street dismiss as a fanatic for the long-languishing metal. Murphy, who wears a hat as chairman of the Gold Antitrust Action Committee, asserts that central banks, Wall Street investment banks and the U.S. Treasury depressed the price of gold through much of the 1990s in a bid to moderate commodity inflation and interest rates.

There is no denying Murphy's influence. "I know it sounds extreme, but Bill put gold on the map for a lot of folks out there," says Bishop.

Murphy's LeMetropoleCafe.com has 3.500 subscribers who pay $149. Another 7,000 are on his mailing list. In Murphy's camp, or sharing at least some of his beliefs about a rigged gold market, are scores of longtime mining investment newsletter editors and natural-resource fund managers. These include John Hathaway at Tocqueville Gold Fund (up 65 percent this year) in Manhattan, Adrian Day at Global Strategic Asset Management in Maryland, Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities in Canada, Ian McAvity at Deliberations on World Markets in Canada and former Central Intelligence Agency economist Mark Skousen at Forecasts & Strategies in Irvington, N.Y.

Metropole, anyone?

I asked Murphy, who was on his way to a London presentation before metals analysts, where he is advising his LeMetropoleCafe.com audience to put their money these days: actual gold or gold coins, large producers such as Newmont, gold futures contracts, long-term stock market options on gold mining companies, silver or the smallest, most risky gold producers and exploration companies?

Murphy, who sees $1,000-an-ounce and higher prices for gold, and a powerful silver rally as well, advocated all of those investment paths. But clearly, he sees the smallest producers providing the biggest returns in coming months.

"My No. 1 gold choice is the smaller gold producer and the quality exploration companies," Murphy said Monday. "As is normally the case in a gold bull market, many have not matched the performance of the senior gold producers."

Murphy cited growing demand figures for gold, whose price has been stirred in perhaps equal parts by a reduction of producer hedging, Nasdaq's relentless slide, declining miner production of the metal, the dollar's recent weakness against the yen and euro and concerns about terrorist strikes against the United States.

"Very few in the investment/gold world realize the magnitude of the gold move that is upon us," he said. "What a nightmare for the shorts. They are trapped. There are gold loans and swaps of around 15,000 tonnes, an annual supply/demand deficit of 1,700 tonnes and mine supply at 2,500 tonnes that is going lower in the years to come, no matter what the gold price does. There is going to be a mad scramble to find new gold supply."

Murphy's top pick is Golden Star Rescources (GSRSF: news, chart, profile), a small, Denver-based gold company. "They just reported record profits, have building gold production in Ghana and superb exploration finds in the Guyana Shield waiting to be developed. It once traded $21 per share in 1996," Murphy said. "I expect that to be exceeded in the years to come."

Golden Stars Resources, traded in Canada (CA:GSC: news, chart, profile) and over the counter, was unchanged Monday morning at $1.30 a share. Gold mining shares as measured by the XAU were up 2.2 percent to their highest point since Oct. 6, 1999. The AMEX Gold Bugs Index of largely unhedged producers of gold was up 6 percent to an all-time high. Spot gold's price rose $2.30 to $312.90 an ounce, highest since May 8. Central Fund of Canada rose 1 cent to $4.56.

Update: By 12:15 ET, gold's spot price had risen $3.50 to $314.10, its highest point since February 2000. Analysts said gold's price could surpass $320 in coming days. Among small producers, shares of South Africa's Randgold Exploration (RANGY: news, chart, profile) were up 15 percent by midday Monday.

Bill Murphy, Adrian Day, Robert Bishop and other gold managers and analysts will speak at the 2002 New Orleans Investment Conference. The November gathering, in its 29th year, also will feature Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters

TownCrier

(05/20/2002; 11:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76050)

Positive gold from Reuters

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020520/markets_gold_urgent_1.htmlNEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) - Gold bullion prices rallied to a new two-year high on Monday in New York...

...Markets were thinner than usual, with much of Europe on holiday...

...dollar continued its slump to new seven-month lows against the euro, Swiss franc and yen...

...tumble in the Dow Jones industrial average also sent investors looking for safer havens.

Gold's war premium was enhanced as as nuclear rivals India and Pakistan teetered on the brink of war and Middle East violence escalated.
----------------

Bottom line: Some investors were reluctant to buy gold during past months while at lower prices, being ever fearful that gold might go lower. They wanted to see a trend of higher prices so that they could be more comfortable buying into a "proven winner". Now that gold has been moving nicely, $60 higher than its lows, will they buy now, or will they continue to wait to see what time will bring?

When it comes to rock-solic security, you either have gold, or you don't. Just "thinking about it" doesn't count for much when the chips are down.

If I may, here is a question for those "brave" souls who went bottom fishing and actually bought themselves some gold, "prematurely" at $280, only to watch it briefly probe the $250s.

The question is: On a net basis, over these past months were you more comforted during these very uncertain times (markets and war) by your gold ownership, or were you further unsettled by that period of gold's languishing price?

If you could relive the past, would you do it all over again, that is, buying "early", or would you join those who stayed on the sidelines and are now faced with higher prices to acquire that very same amount of gold?

Just curious. Thanks to anyone who cares to answer.

R.

YGM

(05/20/2002; 11:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76051)

Randy (TC)

Relive the past?If you could relive the past, would you do it all over again, that is, buying "early", or would you join those who stayed on the sidelines and are now faced with higher prices to acquire that very same amount of gold?....R

*Myself if I could redo the past....I would have mothballed the Placer Mining from 95 to 03 and worked at another field of endeavor....Makes me sick to think of all the years of beating my head against the wall producing AU for about what it cost and losing my shirt in the process....Win some & lose some....Live & learn as they say.......ex-YGM-er

TownCrier

(05/20/2002; 12:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76052)

Ill portents for the dollar

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020520/markets_forex_5.htmlNEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar fell to multi-month lows versus major currencies on Monday as investors, questioning the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, turned away from buying dollar-based assets.

Signs that investors are becoming keen to diversify out of U.S. assets have weighed heavily on the dollar in recent weeks....

Analysts said that after years of ignoring the massive U.S. trade imbalance, the market is now paying increasing attention to the deficit, which weakens a currency.

"Financing the (U.S.) current account deficit is going to be a major problem going forward," said Michael Rosenberg, head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank in New York.
"I think the dollar is going to decline on a trend basis from here on out. The euro ... could go to parity within the next six to twelve months," he said.

-----------(click URL for full text)-------------

Like pebbles coming down a mountain, the flow of hot money in the face of a consensus on direction will not for long be a tame and orderly affair, growing rapidly in force to uproot mighty trees of a longstanding landscape.

Reality check: a dollar is a little more than a mental notion, a pricing unit of account and exchange. Gold on the other hand is real wealth, able to endure the stresses and strains of lost confidence within an economy rocked by chaos.

Bottom line: the flow of hot money will not and cannot reduce your gold to ash.

R.

Operative

(05/20/2002; 12:20:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76053)

Gold Rise No Flash In The Pan ...

http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=qw1021890601818B243&set_id=60Think all will like this article. Appears the author has been spending a lot of time reading the posts here at USAGOLD.

(05/20/2002; 12:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76054)

USD AXINDEX FALLS TO 98.52

At the close of gold trading today, May 20, 2002, in New
York the U.S. Dollar AXINDEX fell to 98.52. The value of

the U.S. Dollar, the world's reference and reserve currency,

was 98.52 mg of gold.

On May 3, the USD AXINDEX stood at 99.69 and looking back

to Nov 26 2001 the USD AXINDEX stood at about 114.14.

July 27, 2001 saw an even higher USD AXINDEX of about

117.06 mg of gold per one U.S. Dollar.

AX

Tevye

(05/20/2002; 12:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76055)

Relive the Past

Whenever my poor milk cow gives me some extra milk that I don't need to feed my 5 children, I buy a little gold. I started with some numismatic pieces in the mid 90's, added bullion in 98-99. Now instead of 'automatic stock purchase plans', my lovely wife Golda (with a lovely name) and I buy a little gold. The price didn't and won't really matter, since I have bought both higher and lower.

Gold. Its Tradition.
Tevye

TownCrier

(05/20/2002; 12:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76056)

BLOOMBERG: Gold Prices Rise

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APOk6yhXMR29sZCBQExcerpts:

New York, May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to their highest price in more than two years as a decline in U.S. stocks boosted investor demand for the metal.

``People are moving out of paper assets and into commodities, and gold is benefiting from that,'' said John L. Johnston, a trader at Refco Inc. in New York.

---------(click URL for more)--------

For many, the difference is becoming clear. But despite that, how many will dabble at the risk of being burned in "paper commodities"? So close, and yet so far....

R.

TownCrier

(05/20/2002; 12:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76057)

HEADLINE: Gold scores 27-month high

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1187638,00.htmlExcerpts:

Gold prices have risen by 18% since the start of this year and lifted a market which was at 20-year lows just two years ago.

"With the US dollar on the ropes, at least for now, the yellow metal should remain firm and is likely to challenge the highs of the year," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.

...India-Pakistan tensions also lent background support to the gold price as forces from the two nuclear-armed neighbours traded fire across their frontier for a fourth day.

---------(click URL for more)--------

Gold up 18%. Sounds like the old internet boom, but with an vital difference. Unlike the past speculative boom (then bust) in tech stocks, gold is rising on a long overdue RETURN of fundamentals to the market -- building on a basis of strength, not speculation. (If you can't recall or draw upon why the Eurosystem CBs put a cap on their part in gold leasing operations, then you have great deal of catching up to do.)

R.

TownCrier

(05/20/2002; 13:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76058)

Part 2 of Jim Puplava's Storm Watch "Rogue Waves and Standard Deviations" is now available

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20020517.html"It is this unexpected event that always surprises the markets. Despite the certainty promised by the models, we know from history that certainty is an impossibility. ... The companies, funds, investors, and governments best able to withstand a crisis are those who are unleveraged, liquid and have access to cash. Having no debt enables one to ride out a storm. Leverage becomes a ticking time bomb that offers few avenues for escape. In summary, the best protection against adversity is to have minimal debt and plenty of liquidity."

(click URL for full commentary)

YGM

(05/20/2002; 13:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76059)

Fund Buying....

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4254623481958629440ODJ Market Special: Gold Driven Above $316 On More Fund Buying

-- Trade Sellers Still Seen Into Strength
-- $320, $325 Targeted

New York, May 20 (OsterDowJones) - Comex Jun gold futures pushed to fresh
23-month highs of $316.70 per ounce Monday on further fund buying against a
backdrop of continued weakness for the dollar.
Heavy trade selling into the strength was tempering the climb higher,
sources said, but with the funds showing aggressive intent price-marks were
jolting the price higher intermittently.
"The trade were initially just selling at recent highs, but once we
pressed above them they're just marking the prices higher to see how far the
funds will go," said a Comex floor dealer.
"The trade are basically selling a little at a time to the funds to let
the price rise by around 5 cents (per ounce) or so, and then they sell a bit
more to test the funds' commitment," he argued.
"Sometimes the tests dent the price a bit, but so far the funds keep
coming back for more," he added.
The dealer also noted the periodic activation of automatic stop-loss buy
orders situated at regular intervals which further adds to the buying flow.
The near-term upside targets include the $320 and $325 levels, he said.

---

Cavan Man

(05/20/2002; 13:28:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76060)

Bloomberg

Gold Prices Rise on Decline in U.S. Stocks and Weakening Dollar
By Claudia Carpenter

New York, May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to their highest price in more than two years as a decline in U.S. stocks boosted investor demand for the metal.

Stocks fell for the first time in three sessions, reinforcing concern among investors about the lackluster performance of equities. Gold futures have risen 13 percent this year, trading at or close to two-year highs since late April, while the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index is down 4.5 percent.

``People are moving out of paper assets and into commodities, and gold is benefiting from that,'' said John L. Johnston, a trader at Refco Inc. in New York.

Gold for June delivery rose as much as $5.80, or 1.9 percent, to $316.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest price for a most-active contract since February 2000. It was the biggest one-day gain since Feb. 5.

Gold stocks also rose. Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., the world's biggest gold producer, gained 62 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $30.07 in afternoon trading. The stock closed at a four-year high of $30.29 on May 6.

The Standard & Poor's Gold Index has risen 41 percent this year, making it the best-performing industry group in the S&P 500 index.

Gold futures also were boosted by a weakening dollar, which makes dollar-priced gold less costly for buyers using other currencies. The dollar fell to its lowest level in five months against the Japanese yen and was trading close to a seven-month low against the euro.

R Powell

(05/20/2002; 14:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76061)

Relive the past

Hello Randy,
You asked, "If you could relive the past would you do it all over agin, that is, buying "early" or would you join those who stayed on the sidelines..."

I don't mean to belittle your "I told you so" but a few dollars up or even 20% off last years lows is just the beginning, isn't it? Gold may have awakened but is barely out of bed and just streaching a bit. Wait until after she's had a cup or two of coffee. For now we'll put on Karen Carpenter's "We've only just begun".
If POG is going to $600 even within two years from today, then anything under $400 is still a great buy.
POS is stirring too. Maybe, just maybe, the sleeper has awakened! XAU is also in uncharted territory.
Rich

Golden Bear

(05/20/2002; 14:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76062)

Golden Quote

Ladies and Knights of the Castle, I respectfully repost a quote from the Great Knight Another:

"For what I hold is not an empty promise. Nor is it a major thought of debt. I am now today, paid in full!"

TownCrier

(05/20/2002; 14:44:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76063)

R Powell, you've arrived at the core of my point -- it all remains a matter of scale

My tight exposition, focusing on just this lowest $60 swing from the depths of gold's 22-year bear market toward a new bull market (or as ANOTHER would say, no "bull", but rather a "new market", period) was meant to be extrapolated in the mind of the reader to the parallel condition on ever larger swings in price.

The implication was, as remains, that a person buying gold today might very well come out ahead when balancing the peace of mind that today's gold ownership will give them against possibilities of future price-dips briefly to the downside. OR, would they rather STILL remain on the sideline, having no gold today but mentally committing themselves to buying gold only at such a time as it becomes a "sure thing" at $600 per ounce, for example.

It comes down to this simple fact: you either buy it (and then you have it), or you don't (and then you don't).

Paraphrasing T.B. Aldrich, fewer men have been ruined by their gold than by their lack of it.

R.

ski

(05/20/2002; 15:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76064)

50 Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices

I am an individual investor that has been following the evolving silver story for the past 19 years. Being curious about how high silver prices might eventually go, I began making a list of the APPROACHING FORCES that will likely contribute to higher prices. To qualify for the list, entries must have two qualifiers: FAIRLY LARGE IN SCOPE and are STILL YET TO COME. I was surprised at the length of my list.

My last post on this subject was on 3/25/02 23:40 post #72139. That archived post listed 44 forces. I have now come up with 6 additional forces that follow:

45. The present public perception says that "BECAUSE SILVER IS SO CHEAP, IT CAN'T BE VALUABLE!" A Ted Butler essay said it this way, "PEOPLE DON'T LIKE SILVER BECAUSE YOU GET TOO MUCH FOR YOUR MONEY." What can we conclude? After silver gets high priced, people will then recognize that silver IS VALUABLE and will then want it ... adding to the demand.

46. If GOLD FUND MANAGERS only agree that silver will make appreciably larger percentage moves than gold, then we can conclude that even the GOLD FUNDS (who can own silver shares and physical), ARE UNDERWEIGHTED in silver. Once they begin listing silver mining companies among their "largest holdings", we will know that they finally got the proper message.

47. When INFLATIONARY FORCES once again sweep the land, SILVER and other PM's will shine as usual. Why? PM's have always been one of the vehicles of choice during inflationary periods.

48. As a civilization advances, the per capita usage of silver increases by a disproportionately wider margin. Much of the third world population, particularly in Asia, is rapidly advancing toward the ranks of the "developed world". This APPROACHING MASS OF HUMANITY will want to take their share of family pictures and connect their new refrigerators, TV's, washing machines, cell phones and air conditioners to the electric/electronic, silver-consuming grid just like you and I.

49. Because of the ongoing silver supply deficit, known silver stockpiles are low and are well on their way to zero. Between now and "zero-stockpile day", SOMEONE-SOMEWHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE OF THE REMAINING PHYSICAL STOCK. Wealthy individuals, hedge funds, political entites and un-named countries are all possible candidates. At $5 silver, the 100 mllion ounce COMEX stock could be had for $500 million. This "accident waiting to happen" will come unannounced and as a surprise. Why hasn't this already happened? In part because the perpetrators will be unfairly villainized for causing the resulting shortage & price spike.

50. The historically common practice of stockpiling silver by the big money crowd is not currently in vogue. WORLDWIDE REBUILDING of government STRATEGIC STOCKPILES, cental banker VAULTS and Swiss custodial BANK ACCOUNTS of the very rich will come back into fashion by TPTB.

.........................................

A few additional words:

One of the reasons that I am posting this information NOW is that once THE SILVER SHOW BEGINS in a big way, everybody and their brother will be talking about silver. I wanted to beat this crowd while the market is still quiet so that forum viewers can grasp, internalize and act on this information before the price explosion takes place and you can still think clearly.

In case you are still not impressed about silver, see if you can come up with an example in ALL OF HISTORY where SO MANY MAJOR FORCES were going to all come into play to move a market and upset the popular thinking of the day. The only example that I can identify would be an argument put forth in about 1910 that the United States was going to displace England as THE WORLD POWER. After all, for well over 100 years, England had dominated the world .... (since their defeat of the Spanish armada). In 1910 everyone KNEW that England would always be top. However, if anyone stopped and cooly looked at the "aproaching forces" of the day, they would foresee that the old order was going to soon change due to overwhelming forces. Just like silver in 2002!!!..

I enjoy everyone's comments here but don't post unless it has enough value.

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 15:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76065)

Homes too expensive for many

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2002-05-20-housing-market.htm
Snippit:

Home prices have soared so high that affording housing is a problem not just for the poor but for middle-class families as well, experts say. "The run-up in single-family home prices is crowding out solidly middle-class households from buying," says Bruce Katz, director of the Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Housing affordability has reached "crisis" levels in some areas of the country, particularly in big cities on the East and West coasts, housing experts say. "We have to be able to answer the questions, where are our children going to live? Where are our teachers going to live? Where are our firefighters going to live?" says Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Black Blade: Housing, the next bubble to pop? This has been discussed for the last few months. Now that stocks are sinking and the "wealth effect" has dissipated, it is doubtful that the housing sector can keep making gains, especially if the Fed raises interest rates this June as expected.

Aristotle

(05/20/2002; 16:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76066)

I can't believe I'm about to say this! I'm actually going to refer to the cabal!

First, a qualifier. I don't give credence to the existance or operations of a formal anti-Gold "cabal" because the same effects we have witnessed in the Gold market can be easily explained by a combination of natural commercial and market forces. My view holds insofar as we're willing to acknowledge that Nation, Inc. (any given national government) must indeed operate within the same markets that we do. We all (individuals, corporations, and govs) meet in the common market, none of us truly expecting that our objectives for being there will be the same as everyone else at the same time.

Look, what good is a Farmer's Market if everyone attending wants to buy apples, meanwhile apple growers are barred from attending because their presence tends to "manipulate" the price lower? Sheeeeeeeeeeesh!

However, in the interests of effective communication I'm going to put my personal delicacies aside and try to talk with the man on the street on his own terms. So here I go... a response to Sir ski and to all the other silver fans who keep trying to sell themselves on a dream.

To the extent that something exists that we may call it a "cabal" and thereby attain a mutual understanding about the maintenance of dollar strength and stability at the cost of Gold's weakness in the market, here is my two cents on the subject as it relates to silver.

Eyeing the big picture, the "cabal" wants (*wants* mind you) WANTS you to buy silver instead of Gold. It buys the cabal precious time at this time when time itself is very short. It helps to diminish and deflect pressure from the sensitive physical Gold market in much the same way that the Gold stocks and Gold derivatives markets do.

My friends, there's a cracking big game atable, and it's not being played for silver.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Leigh

(05/20/2002; 16:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76067)

Aristotle

Aristotle, don't be ashamed of mentioning the cabal. We cabal-mentioners are now seen as cool and trend-setting. You're part of the winning team.

slingshot

(05/20/2002; 17:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76068)

Town Crier Msg.# 76050

Relive the PastGot in at $300.00 to $325.00 and rode(buying) that bear all the way to the bottom $255.00. Now I'm riding the Bull with a positive attitude. Should the Bull throw me off I would jump on the bear again knowing that the ride would be very short.
YeeeeeHaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Bears are very hard to ride.
Slingshot-------------------------<>

R Powell

(05/20/2002; 17:33:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76069)

Aristotle

You stated that the cabal wants you (WANTS) you to buy silver instead of gold. All the silver longs and a whole lot of miners, refiners, and silver related industry workers also want you to buy silver. I want everyone to buy silver (and gold).
But I'm afraid you lost me completely when you specified silver. If the "cabal" does not want increased buying of gold, okay, that I understand. But why specify that the "cabal" wants buying of silver instead of gold? Why not stock buying or bond buying or the buying of cotton? The silver market is miniscule. Why try to deflect perceived gold buying into silver? Very little capital entering silver will cause an explosion.
If someone doesn't want POG higher, promoting silver is not the answer. Given what you know of the commodity funds, the precious metals market players and the knowledge of the average investor likely to enter these markets (almost always on the long side only during trend price rises), why do you think those with an interest in maintaining a low POG want to promote silver?
For whatever reason (or even if there is no apparent reason), I find it hard to imagine a big rise in one without accompanyment by the other.
What makes you think otherwise?
Rich

Paper Avalanche

(05/20/2002; 17:48:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76070)

Rich Powell - Ditto

You eloquently stated the exact argument that I was just about to post to counter Aristotle's repudiation of silver. There are obviously a number of "gold only" theories. However, none stands up to LOGICAL market or historical (last 2,000 years) analysis. Again, I believe that the fault made by the "gold only" crowd is the inability to recognize that both metals will realize an explosion in price for different reasons. The "gold only" crowd tries to fit silver in the political/gold argument and it does not fit, so they wholly dismiss the supply/demand fundamentals that will inevitably affect silver price to the upside as has never been seen before.

JMHO

Don't get caught under the paper avalanche.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(05/20/2002; 17:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76071)

Someone forgot to tell the moslems

Somebody forgot to tell the arabs/moslems who are putting the Islamic Dinar together that silver will be worthless. They have included it as part of a bi-metallic answer to usurious paper money.

The paper avalanche is gaining momentum.

PA

Aristotle

(05/20/2002; 18:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76072)

Seeing the forest through the trees

Rich, from my vantage point it's all too evident that you're trying to hard. Sit back, relax, and reconsider the gist of what I said. Put your feet up, lean back, and allow yourself to absorb the barest hint of the drift of my previous comments. Imagine the rustle of aspen leaves and the smell of pine it helps.

Can you now see, really SEE, the essence of what I've said?

I will grant you this, and it might help us come to terms, so long as you don't take this inch and try to make it a mile. Using the same context of the "cabal" that I set up in my previous post, I will submit to you that "they" would *really* prefer that your buying pressures were diverted into tennis shoes, floor mats, and paint brushes, and hair cuts. However, to the extent that there is an unquenchable investment interest remaining for precious metals, they prefer ("want" is the word I used) you buy silver, paper silver, platinum, paper platinum or paper Gold instead of Real Physical Gold.

I love the rattle of aspen leaves in the morning!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Paper Avalanche

(05/20/2002; 18:19:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76073)

Buffet the decoy?

Aristotle, do you believe that Warren Buffet was simply a decoy to goad us suckers into diverting our FRN's into physical silver instead of gold for the past few years? Either he is part of the grand conspiracy and announced his silver purchase to the financial press a few years back to keep the heat off the gold price or he is one of the suckers (myself included) that has taken the bait only to be left with the short end of the stick when the new gold paradigm takes hold. Which do you believe? Just curious.

The paper avalanche will consume all paper wealth.

PA

sector

(05/20/2002; 18:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76074)

It's Always fun to initiate learned men and women into the world of gold manipulation

See...It's the facts that eventually floor them. But FIRST they need to look......and that's very hard for experts to do.

Goldensextant.com has the data, essays and commentary...even the Fed uses it for day-to-day information. That there is an organized government-led group whose mission is the suppression of gold's price is no longer seriously in question.

The list of facts, "coincidences", scientific evidence [Preemptive selling] and a host of other corroborating evidence including direct statements from high-ranking Federal Reserve banking officers closes the case on whether gold is manipulated.

GATA has been the epicenter of information regarding the cabal's habits and traits.

Think of it. A tiny group of dedicated men and women have brought the most powerful, evil men in the world to their knees...by delivering a lethal weapon...the truth. The truth, for example, about the lies of Virgil Mattingly, the Fed's chief council regarding his FOMC minutes "Gold Swap" statements. Why should the Fed care about the appearance of Mattingly's words "Gold Swaps" in the FOMC?

Because it reveals a plan to swap treasury gold [With who knows who] that was in play as far back as 1995 and possibly farther since Wayne Angel's FOMC comments about a
" Gold swap 'put' that just 'sits there'" also appear in earlier FOMC minutes.

The Treasury's current position [At their website] is a lie since they deny dealing in gold after 1978.

See...this is SO much FUN...smashing these $3,000 empty suits at Treasury and especially the FED. They have made the fatal mistake of believing their own press releases. Their lies just keep coming.

Is gold a manipulated market? To those who look, it IS...to those who have yet to look... it WILL BE.

R Powell

(05/20/2002; 18:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76075)

Smelling lilacs and blue spruce

Okay, I'm back. There are no aspens near where I live so I took a walk through my back yard which is crowded with Blue spruce and some lilacs (now in bloom!). I also sniffed some Glad air freshener, just to make sure. I always try too hard, can't change that.
If I can paraphase to make sure I interpreted correctly. You think that "they" perceive funds (money), which can't be diverted, moving into precious metals. "They" would prefer that, if this money flow can't be diverted, that it be directed at any precious metal OTHER THAN gold.
This I understand. This is not the same as just saying that "they" want increased silver market investment to keep POG low. At the risk of being ostracized, I'll state that I haven't studied FOA simply because economics is hard enough for me without having to interpret riddles to understand what is being said. However, I've absorbed FOA's ideas after being interpreted by others. Thanks everyone!
You idea is an interesting thought. What makes you think so? Do you think the gold market is even closer to the edge than silver?
I think it will backfire badly and quickly if they succeed in pushing money into the silver market. It's much too small and precariously balanced now. Even a small percentage of gold directed money diverted into silver will blow apart the silver market and take both silver and gold much, much higher. Boy, I hope you're right!
I've seen your aspens. They are beautiful!
Rich

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 19:09:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76076)

Monday's Stock Market WrapUp

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippits:

Selective & Subjective Reasoning

Last Friday I got home in time to watch a popular financial show. I haven't watched this show in years because I felt it had become a cheer leading show for the financial markets, devoid of any objectivity. The guest on the show was the lead investment strategist for a major brokerage firm now under investigation. The guest's recommendations seemed to be conservative given the current bear trend in stocks. He recommended defense stocks as leading the technology sector over the next five years because of the vast amount of government expenditures that will be poured into the U.S. military. I found myself in agreement with this assessment -- so far so good. Then there was the traditional babble of staying in stocks for the long run and a host of recommendations of overvalued stocks.

Most disconcerting was when the host of the show asked about investments in gold. The guest acknowledged that gold had done well but it was more of an aberration than it was a significant new trend. The advice was that investors would do well by avoiding gold and keeping their money invested in well managed companies of which he gave another list of recommended stocks -- all of which were overvalued. To this investment strategist, what has happened to stocks over the last three years and what has gone on in the gold and silver markets were totally unconnected.

Maybe if they ignore gold and silver, it'll just go away?

Yet, here are the undisputed facts; not only has gold and silver prices gone up over the last two years, but gold and silver equities have gone up even more. The Amex Gold Bug Index is up 100.92% this year, hitting a new 52-week high. The index was up 58% last year. Now this year it is up 100% and you hear very few people talking about it other than to dismiss it as an anomaly. The XAU, which includes hedged mining companies, hasn't done as well. Yet it is up 53% this year and is up 26.4% over the last 52 weeks.

Is this a "con" job on consumers, confidence?

The smart money has already left the traditional stock market. The smart money has been in gold and the smarter money has moved into silver. Buffett, Gates, and Soros are just a few of the names who have taken a large position in silver. Even the mutual fund industry is starting to take notice. The gold market surged on Monday with gold prices hitting a two-year high as a decline in stocks boosted investor demand for the metal. It is one of Wall Street's and the government's biggest nightmares. A rise in metals reflects investors� lack of confidence in the financial system. Investors today have much to doubt in the financial system, from the CEO's who have leveraged their companies and fleeced their shareholders, to the accountants who bless the numbers and shred the documents, to the analysts that recommend the stocks as a "buy," while internally calling them "crap" to the media that mindlessly regurgitates whatever the analysts tell them.

Black Blade: A pretty good run tonight by Jim Puplava. Well worth reading in light of all that's happening in the financial markets and the rocket ride in PMs.

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 19:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76077)

New grads take their knocks with other job seekers in tough economy

http://www.uniontrib.com/news/business/20020519-9999_mz1b19market.html
Snippit:

The economic turbulence that is driving unemployment up and putting all job seekers on edge is no different for college graduates this spring than it is for older workers with lots of experience. On-campus recruiters are expected to hire 36 percent fewer graduates than they did last year, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. "After having such a robust job market for so long, this year is a dramatic departure," said Neil Murray, director of career services at University of California San Diego. "Things are very, very different now."

Compounding the problem for college graduates, he said, is a recent trend by experienced workers to take jobs that pay less or carry less prestigious job titles. "There is downward pressure that is filling job slots," DeWitt said. "When it reaches the bottom, it means experienced workers are taking jobs that might otherwise go to college graduates." Demand is down

Black Blade: Not much of an economic recovery if the "Bone Pile" continues to grow. Even experienced job seekers are eating up the few entry level positions while college grads go wanting. I have thought about dusting off the old teaching certificate, but who needs that aggravation, low pay, and incessant politics? Besides, it'll cut into my fishing, hunting and beer consumption schedule. The "Bone Pile" will grow higher in spite of BLS data massage.

R Powell

(05/20/2002; 19:25:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76078)

Paper Avalanche

Buffett bought 89 million ounces during the second half of 1997 before a market manipulation lawsuit against his broker, Philbro, forced his disclosure. He stated that it was he who was buying and that he intended to take another 40.7 million ounces. IMHO he may have given lease agreements instead letting the shorts off the hook, maybe in exchange for the dropping of the manipulation suit. In other words, he said, "Okay, you don't have the physical you sold me, so sign this lease at X% interest for one year then I'll expect my silver returned." This gave the shorts one more year to deliver.
I don't believe Buffett would have disclosed his buying before he had completed the whole purchase. BTW, he bought most between $5.00-6.00 and immediately moved it to London. I seriously doubt Buffett has anything to do with any market tomfoolery of any kind. He's from the old school which believes the natural forces of supply and demand should be free to do the manipulating. He also thinks companies offering shares should make profits shown in honest accounting. I think (but not sure) that he was also the first boy scout in America, stuck his finger in a leaking dike once to save Holland and admitted to chopping down a cherry tree rather than tell a lie.
I don't think he's part of anyone's cabal.
Rich

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 19:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76079)

Wall St investors seek golden shares

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1021636485080&p=1012571727207
Snippit:

Gold is making a comeback and nowhere is this more evident than in the shares of the companies that explore for and mine the precious metal. The gold price has risen by about 15 per cent over the past year. But shares have risen much more dramatically, with the FTSE gold mines index rising by roughly 70 per cent.

When the gold price moves from $275 to $300 an ounce, the value of a gold bar rises by 9 per cent. But a gold miner with total costs of $250 an ounce sees its profit double to $50 an ounce. This means companies that do not hedge, and therefore have maximum exposure to the gold price, have benefited. South Africa's Gold Fields is one.

Black Blade: The word is getting out that only "losers" short gold by hedging. The "Day of the Hedger" is over.

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 19:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76080)

Loss of Faith In The Markets

http://www.freep.com/money/business/tompor20_20020520.htm

Snippit:

Main Street is losing faith in Wall Street. And while many still religiously invest in their 401(k) plans, they just don't have the zest -- or confidence -- in the market that they used to have. "Can you really trust earnings reports? Can you really trust analysts? The markets have been losing the perception of legitimacy or at least trustworthiness," said J. Walker Smith, president of Yankelovich, a marketing and consulting firm in Chapel Hill, N.C.

Black Blade: Stock indices are extremely overvalued, corporations and consumers are buried under crushing debt, and there are scandals breaking out weekly on Wall Street. Of course people don't want to throw cash at investments these days. It is often said that "a fool and his money are easily parted". Wall Street takes the people on Main Street for fools � unfortunately many are � but they are waking up.

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 19:44:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76081)

Why the dollar will dive, and what that will cost US

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0520/p21s01-usec.html
Snippit:

The stock market bubble has popped. The other was the price of the dollar. It has yet to pop.

The dollar is off a little. Compared with currencies of major US trading partners, the dollar has lost 3.5 percent or more of its value since February. But probably most economists think the dollar is still overpriced on foreign exchange markets � perhaps by 20 to 30 percent. Like David Huether, chief economist of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) in Washington, they regard the present dollar level as "unsustainable." "The only issue is whether it falls now or later," says Mr. Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

The dollar's price is important to Americans. If the currency tumbles, trips abroad and imported goods become more expensive. As import prices rise, so could the US inflation rate. On the plus side, a cheaper dollar, could restrain the withering of manufacturing in the US, saving many well-paid jobs.

Black Blade: In order to salvage the US economy, the US Dollar must weaken to sustainable levels. The "weakening" is inevitable and may accelerate as early as this June when the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates and thereby beat bonds into submission. At that point a lot of foreign cash will free US Dollar denominated investments to seek refuge elsewhere (like Gold) or just go home to pay off debt. Then the US Dollar will fall probably sharply if the government does not intervene.

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 19:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76082)

After boom, a bust exposes Wall St. ethics

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/139/business/After_boom_a_bust_exposes_Wall_St_ethics+.shtml
Snippit:

n a 1990 essay he wrote about the savings & loan scandal, the economist Paul Krugman wondered why there seemed to be so many crooks in that business in the late 1980s. ''Americans in general are neither better nor worse people than they used to be,'' wrote Krugman. ''So the real question has to be: What made socially destructive behavior in this industry so much more attractive than it used to be?''

The same question could be posed today, only this time it wouldn't be aimed at one industry but at the entire business community. In case you haven't noticed we are in the midst of a full-blown ethics crisis. The business pages of the newspaper suddenly read like the police blotter. A long list of American companies, including blue-chip names, are under investigation for engaging in deceptive practices.

Black Blade: It's a sign of the times. Easy money brought out the crooks and charlatans. Many ended up as CEO's and others as Wall Street analysts who were more concerned about personal gain than by telling the truth. Even boards of directors (many of whom are also CEO's of other companies) were in on the plunder. It is now a question of when the herd breaks and they run hard and fast for honest money (Gold and Silver). In the meantime, the best we can do is look out for "number one". Get out of debt (as best you can), get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, stash enough cash for several months expenses, and start a family nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

mikal

(05/20/2002; 20:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76083)

Re: "Smart money"

We keep hearing "the smart money is going into silver". Now its from Puplava. And the parroted old examples: Buffett, Gates, and Soros. The current status of Buffets silver is unknown. The others holdings are mineshares, not physical metal. And why doesn't anyone care to specify their gold holdings, or anyones? Undisclosed? Then take the Europeans as a guide. How do you think the monarchies and nobility retain wealth over centuries? Not just European families of royal lineage, but worldwide families, distinguished figures and forgotten industrialists, famous clans and bloodlines. Reclusive bankers, wealthy industrialists ala Rockefeller, clergy, artists, etc. It doesn't take much imagination to add on and on. In common with organized crime, money laundering, and offshore havens. And like the masses of smart, "little" people.

Cavan Man

(05/20/2002; 20:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76084)

mikal

I agee with you. Gold is more "precious" than silver. Humanity has placed it in a position of monetary preeminence. I do like silver but at this time and in this place, gold is king.

Ozzie

(05/20/2002; 20:18:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76085)

Sorry......but another Eli Wallachism(?)....

....'If God didn't want them sheared...he wouldn't have made them sheep!'....Marginally appropriate to the current enironment...but not intended...Another....''I only wish to wet my beak.'....yeah right ya greedy bastard!!!

Black Blade

(05/20/2002; 20:37:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76086)

US gas production may fall 4% in 2002

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=144144

Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 20 -- Total US natural gas production is likely to drop by 3.5-4% this year instead of the 2% decline previously predicted, because exploration and production companies have depleted their North American drilling inventories faster than expected, a veteran industry analyst reported Friday. Robert Morris, oil and gas exploration and production analyst for Salomon Smith Barney Inc., New York, said, "Producers have run through a lot of their best prospects in trying to drill up all they could" during a flurry of activity that started about mid-2000 last year and peaked at 1,293 active units in late July 2001. US drilling subsequently declined fairly steadily through early April. But with the pick-up in drilling activity over the last 5 weeks, Morris said, "It appears the rig count bottomed out earlier than expected."

However, he said E&P companies are getting less new production for each rig employed over a base of 500 rigs because of the smaller fields being found and quickly depleted. With rig efficiency currently below the average levels for the last 2 years, Morris said, "We would need 1,200 rigs in the field next year to keep US production level."

Meanwhile, he said, US gas demand is expected to rise by 5% this year with a rebound in the economy and the recapture of that portion of the gas market lost when previous high prices led power plants and industrial users to switch to distillates and fuel oil. It also reported that producers have been drilling wells that they could bring on production quickly at high flow rates. And it projected that, with activity on those types of prospects now halted, production from high-flow projects likely will be down by 30-40% this year.

Black Blade: This should not be news to many. I reported over the last several months that this was a very real possibility after several discussions with contacts in Oklahoma City, Houston, and Casper. Decline rates are exceptionally high in areas such as the Powder River Basin and San Juan Basin in spite of record drilling last year. They do get the Natural Gas that they expect, however, it produces quickly and then goes into decline rather fast. We are looking down the throat of a developing energy crisis should we have a warmer than usual summer and a cold winter (unlike this past warm winter). With many drilling projects halted by order of the EPA, we will definitely see depleting inventories and production over the long haul unless government officials step in. Natural Gas is the real sleeper here. Scratch one economic recovery.

Aristotle

(05/20/2002; 20:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76087)

Paper Avalanche (great name!)

You've asked me which position I believe, but frankly, I'm not sure which of the two offered options I find more ridiculous (no offense intended):

"Warren Buffet was simply a decoy to goad us suckers into diverting our FRN's into physical silver ... he is part of the grand conspiracy"

Or, the other contender:

"he is one of the suckers"

Surely, there's another option (or many) you've yet to explore? Bear in mind that when your pockets are a deep as Warren's, economic common sense for Buffet may appear completely different than anything us "little folk" would typically encounter. In other words, sometimes size (as affects either ability or limitation) and an appreciation for consequences (as affects responsibility) will dictate actions that are well beyond the horizons of our own common experiences and commonplace rationale.

If it would do any good, I'd suggest you ask Phibro what is was that made Warren feel compelled to cut a check when he did.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

sector

(05/20/2002; 21:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76088)

SEC Chief Criticized for Meetings

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 5/20/2002 8:16PMWASHINGTON (AP) -- Disclosures keep surfacing about private meetings between the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission and chief executives of companies being investigated by the agency.

SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt represented Wall Street's big players as a private securities lawyer before President Bush named him last spring to head the market watchdog agency. He already has been criticized for his April meeting with the head of accounting firm KPMG, a former Pitt client whose audits of Xerox Corp. are being investigated by the SEC.

Now it turns out Pitt also met, in December, with the CEO of Xerox, which agreed last month to pay a record $10 million civil fine to settle agency allegations of accounting fraud.

In addition, Pitt reportedly has told SEC officials he spoke with tycoon Donald Trump before Trump's hotel and casino company agreed in January to settle with the SEC for allegedly making misleading statements in a news release about its earnings. The company was not fined.

The Pitt-Trump conversation was reported Monday by The Wall Street Journal. Spokesmen for Trump at his New York office didn't immediately return a telephone call seeking comment.

Pitt's meetings with company executives do not violate government ethics rules, but he held them against the advice of SEC staff attorneys.

Still, SEC Enforcement Director Stephen Cutler said the SEC took a tougher approach in the Xerox case because of Pitt's involvement than what agency attorneys recommended. In general, Cutler said, Pitt ``has been a very vigorous enforcer and has urged upon the staff sanctions or charges in a number of cases that were more severe than those originally recommended.''

Ken Johnson, spokesman for Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said of Pitt's discussions with the CEOs: ``These types of meetings clearly are inappropriate, but we take Mr. Pitt's word that it won't happen again. If it does, he won't find much political cover here on Capitol Hill.''

Pitt told Tauzin and other lawmakers in a letter recently that he did nothing improper in his brief April 26 meeting with Eugene O'Kelly, chairman and chief executive officer of KPMG. They did not discuss Xerox or any enforcement matters, he said, but promised to act to avoid any appearance of impropriety in the future.

The meeting was disclosed by O'Kelly in an e-mail to KPMG employees, in which he said he discussed with Pitt the SEC's investigation of the Xerox audits and said he told the SEC chairman that the agency should take no action. O'Kelly appeared to have backed off those statements in a recent letter to lawmakers, telling them he did not mention by name the SEC's inquiry into Xerox in his meeting with Pitt.

In a statement Monday, Pitt said, ``Every meeting or conversation I have had has been for a legitimate purpose: to help the SEC improve its performance for investors.''

``With that goal, I will continue to talk to people in the securities business, at regulated companies and among investors,'' he said. ``But ... I have taken steps to ensure that I avoid meetings that might be misconstrued.''

White House spokeswoman Anne Womack said, ``The president thinks that Mr. Pitt is doing a great job as SEC chairman.'' He has adhered to ethics rules, Womack said.

Pitt also met privately with O'Kelly's predecessor at KPMG, Stephen Butler, before Butler retired in April. That meeting was first reported Friday by the St. Petersburg Times.

Butler referred queries to KPMG spokesman George Ledwith, who said the company had no comment.

The issue of Pitt's meetings has become a distraction at a time when the SEC is pursuing the complex investigation of collapsed Enron Corp. and its former auditor, Arthur Andersen LLP, and is devising rules for companies in response to the Enron debacle.

Some consumer groups and Democratic lawmakers have said the SEC proposals don't go far enough.

The government watchdog group Common Cause recently demanded Pitt's resignation, citing what it called a pattern of actual and apparent conflicts of interest that undermines investor confidence.

SEC Commissioner Isaac Hunt, a Democrat originally appointed by former President Clinton, told The Wall Street Journal there is a ``general practice'' for commissioners not to meet with officials of companies under agency scrutiny. Pitt, Hunt and former accounting industry executive Cynthia Glassman are the commissioners now sitting on the five-member SEC.

Before the flap over his meeting with the KPMG chairman, Pitt had been criticized by several Democrats in Congress and some ethics groups for not removing himself from the SEC's investigation of Enron and Andersen, another former Pitt client. He also has defended in Senate testimony his private meeting with accounting industry executives in December on a post-Enron reform proposal.

As an attorney, Pitt represented major Wall Street brokerage firms, the New York Stock Exchange, all Big Five accounting firms, including KPMG and Andersen, and British insurer Lloyd's of London.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The sewer pf corrupt regulators brims over.

YGM

(05/20/2002; 22:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76089)

Rich P owell....All........Silver Discussion.....

How Come No Talk of Leverage of AG over AU??Sure we may get a double or triple in AU but if Silver hit $30. to $50. as many wise, experienced, savvy (and I might add very rich) minds ponder then there's the why of Silver over Gold....Not to mention the "Confiscation Issue" As in any thing financial the best arguement lies w/ "Diversification"...Multiple baskets and different birds eggs....Anybody want to bet all the Buffets, Soros,etc have that "Diversification Mentality"....I'd even give odds they do....Now I wonder how much Gold they hold? Platinum, Euros, Loonies, NZ $$, Australian $$. The American Buck still buys alot of depressed stores of value, Paper and Hard.........

YGM

(05/20/2002; 23:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76090)

Excellent Article....

http://www.sierratimes.com/02/05/18/lobaido.htmDollars, Cents and Nonsense Surviving in the
Economic Jungle of the 21st Century
By Anthony C. LoBaido
Published 05. 17. 02 at 21:42 Sierra Time

Horatio

(05/20/2002; 23:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76091)

Hedgers

When I see gold Funds largest holdings I see hedgers like Barrick,Anglo,Placer,Newmont,Newcrest,Aurion Ashanti,Lihir Cambior.What that tells me is, it is not possible for Gold Funds to get into the Gold markets with thier enormus amounts of capital without buying the Hedgers.Therefore it may not make any difference wether thay are hedgers or not .What makes the stock go up is more BUYERS than SELLERS ,not earnings or any of the conventional wisdom. The markets are perverse as I have always claimed.We have all seen stocks with NO earnings selling at over 100/share ,Why not the GOLDS ?Who can deny this?
Anybody that is not deaf dumb and blind has seen this occur for the past 10 years! Why not the GOLDS ?,theres no rush like a GOLD rush!!!!!You don't need to be too smart and pick exactly the right stock in a gold rush!!Just be in the right place at the right time! This is the right place and the right time,don't worry,be happy....

Gandalf the White

(05/21/2002; 00:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76092)

Spot's Frisky -- Waverider (5/20/02; 09:58:26MT msg#: 76043)

Like Lady Waverider said this Morning, "Looks as if SPOT is getting FRISKY" -- again just before entering London !
JUMP MORE, SPOT, JUMP!!!
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 00:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76093)

Gold Funds and Hedgers

http://www.quicken.com/investments/holdings/?symbol=FSAGX
I would hope that Gold investors are more intelligent than the dot.com and techie crowd who gave no thought to valuations or survivability of the companies involved. Nevertheless you will see that the funds that invest in non-hedgers have grown faster and gained more than the hedge-heavy funds. Just prove it to yourself � check the link and put in the symbol for any Gold Fund. Luckily for the Gold Funds, hedger fund miners are generally a small percentage of the overall mix.

But then why have a Gold fund when buying shares (and PMs)directly is so much easier and cheaper these days?

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 01:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76095)

Rising gold prices means less hedging-analysts

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nsyd35362.html
Snippit:

SYDNEY, May 21 (Reuters) - A rising gold price meant Australian producers will continue to reduce their forward sold hedge positions, analysts said on Tuesday. Hedging -- selling as yet unmined nuggets at fixed prices to lock in revenue and protect against a dropping bullion market -- has fallen out of favour among the world's biggest mining houses, who claim it stymies upward price moves.

Also, rising markets in the past have punished some heavily hedged companies, which actually lost money when they were forced to buy gold at higher prices than they were able to sell under options agreements.

Black Blade: The "Day of the Hedger" is over.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 01:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76096)

http://in.news.yahoo.com/020520/64/1oifo.html

http://in.news.yahoo.com/020520/64/1oifo.html
Snippit:

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Indian and Pakistani forces traded heavy fire across their frontier for a fourth day on Monday, fanning fears that escalating tensions between the nuclear-capable neighbours could push them into war.

Black Blade: Soon nukes could fly?!

Usul

(05/21/2002; 01:30:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76097)

America's productivity paradox

http://www.iht.com/articles/58296.html"Last week, on the day that the U.S. government reported that workers' productivity surged in the first quarter at the fastest rate in nearly two decades, stock prices barely budged. What gives?"

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 01:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76098)

Asia Awash in Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are negative and Europe is starting off negative. These Third World markets are working hard to depress their currencies against the US Dollar. They have too in order to keep competitive and yet the US Dollar must do the same. The race for the weakest currency is on.

- Black Blade

Spartacus

(05/21/2002; 01:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76099)

Profits Crisis

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
Profits Crisis by Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher
05/13/02

"...If productivity growth is such a surefire device for high profits, one has to wonder why it has so grossly failed in the past few years..."

TownCrier

(05/21/2002; 01:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76100)

A full explanation for 'ax'

To begin, in light of your self-proclaimed investment positions with regard to a certain stock, I can certainly appreciate the motive behind your recent post and your concluding comment: "...it is important to present more than one view on a particular gold stock."

I'll be the first to agree with you. To any investor considering an investment in your company, it is quite prudent that they learn everything they can about the company from ALL angles. Where you've run afoul, however, is that you're trying to use this particular forum for purposes other than what it was designed for. If you would please take a moment to re-read the opening paragraph on this page, and click on the Discussion Forum Guidelines link, you will discover that this is not a stock chat room. I am sure you will have no trouble finding those aplenty to meet your needs.

As soon as you accept that the singular focus of this one forum (out of thousands of others on the internet) is to discuss the role of physical gold as part of a diversified portfolio, you will understand the context (usually negative, cautionary) in which stocks may be mentioned, and how they may not (touted as investment-worthy).

I fully understand that there are some worthy investments out there to round out a person's portfolio, and I can appreciate everyone's enthusiasm for their particular pet projects. But for the greater good of this forum (to preserve its unique point of discussion) we can't allow everyone to take turns promoting the merits of this, that, and the other thing. If we did, then we'd be no different than every other chat room on the web.

It's really all about maintaining focus, and our focus is the physical precious metals, notably gold. Realistically, can anyone legitimately find fault or blame for our chosing this point of focus? Those who find it not to their liking or interest tend to pass by without a word. And those who do appreciate this focus tend to stick around, contributing (if at all) within the parameters to the continuing benefit of everyone else gathered here and interested in this specific subject matter.

Kind regards,
Randy

TownCrier

(05/21/2002; 02:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76101)

THOMPSON INTERVIEW:Gold In For A Sustained Bull Trend

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4254797303683612736Excerpts:

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Spot gold's overnight gains to its highest levels since February 2000 are sustainable and part of a bullish trend suggesting further potential, according to Chris Thompson, World Gold Council chairman ... stress[ing] that all the essential conditions for gold to rise higher are in place.

...Insisting that supply over the coming years will continue to tighten, Thompson's longer term outlook is also bullish. ....the gold industry's overall production will continue to decline in coming years. "It's a little like shuffling deck chairs around," he said.

...Thompson says he is out to "restructure and remodel" the World Gold Council. Set up in the late 1990s to help develop markets for the gold mining industry, under Fukuda's guidance, the council recently focused on promoting jewelry to the detriment of investment, which was unfortunate, Thompson said.

...Through the resolution of gold delivery and storage problems, "I would like to make (investing in gold) as easy as owning stocks or bonds," he said in reference to small-time gold investment.

-----------(click URL for full text)------------

Moving in the right direction, in more ways than one.

R.

Waverider

(05/21/2002; 02:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76102)

Japan banks to report losses, future bad loans key

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?cat=USMARKET&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-t121893-u1&date=20020521&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwSnippit:
"Japan's top banks will report big losses for the 2001/02 business year, pressured by mountains of bad debts, and it is unclear if they will garner enough operating profits to offset bad loans this year.

Mizuho Holdings Inc, the world's biggest bank by assets, expects a group net loss of 1.01 trillion yen ($8.06 billion), a figure that was raised 40 percent in April from an earlier estimate of 720 billion. All the big banks report their figures on Friday.

The FSA concluded in April after special inspections focusing on lending to large, troubled borrowers that bad-debt clean-up costs at the top seven banking groups would total 7.8 trillion yen ($62.21 billion), nearly double the estimate of a year ago.

At end-March, the top banks were still saddled with about 25 trillion yen in bad debts, including core bad debts -- loans to borrowers at risk of bankruptcy or already bankrupt.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange's banking sector index <.IBNKS.T> hit an 18-year low early in February but subsequently rebounded 35 percent on receding concerns of a financial meltdown."

Waverider: 25 trillion yen in bad debt is staggering. The last paragraph should read..."rebounded 35% following intervention by the BS Purchase Corp".

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 03:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76103)

Bearish calls go awry as gold spikes

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BBF007E8CCD?OpenDocument
Snippit:

PRINCETON, New Jersey -- South Africans use the colourful expression "face plant" to describe an embarrassing failure. JP Morgan's technical analysts are among the leading bears that have just had their faces planted very firmly in very rough turf after gold surged to nearly $318 an ounce and remains quite firm above $315. Silver has also firmed markedly and is trading near $4.70. Exactly a year ago gold was coming off a significant spike that would eventually form part of the double bottom that signalled that start of a new upward channel. That channel has been firmly broken on the topside recently and today (Monday) the metal touched its highest level in two years.

On Tuesday last week, JP Morgan issued a technical strategy note that called gold's run overdone and recommended that customers "close all longs in gold". "Weekly and monthly momentum indicators [are] overbought making the risk reward of holding longs increasingly unattractive, even given a still possible new high," the authors wrote.

Black Blade: I also see SJ Kaplan is still "significantly bearish" on Gold and Gold shares. Somehow I find that to be somewhat "interesting". He got out just before Gold took off and is still out missing the entire rally. Many other analysts were calling for a maximum of $305/oz. POG this year. I think most missed the point that other investments were destined for the trash can due declining earnings, crushing debt, the inevitable rise in interest rates, and the inevitable declining USD. OK, toss in a rising petroleum price and some warfare as well. Also Gold demand is outstripping Gold supply and exploration activity to replace depleted reserves is absolutely non-existent. It takes a minimum of 5 years to get a project to the point of actual mining and even then it takes a bit longer for actual production. It looks as if the POG should be moving much higher.

Spartacus

(05/21/2002; 03:29:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76104)

US leading indicators down 1st time since Sept'01

http://www.reuters.com/markets_news_article.jhtml?storyID=983859&marketID=1&ric=

WASHINGTON, May 20 (Reuters) - A key indicator of U.S. economic activity fell in April for the first time since last September, signaling slow economic recovery, a private research firm said on Monday.

The Conference Board said the U.S. index of leading economic indicators fell 0.4 percent in April -- the first decline since a 0.6 percent drop in September 2001 -- after rising 0.1 percent in March.

Spartacus

(05/21/2002; 03:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76105)

Whom do you trust more with your money - Alan or Wim

http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=5162
In recent weeks, two different messages with respect to inflationary concerns have been coming from Alan Greenspan's Fed and Wim Duisenberg's ECB. Greenspan and his compatriots have been saying that inflation is under control. Therefore, the Fed can delay hiking the fed funds rate from its 40-year low of 1.75%. Conversely, Wim Duisenberg and his comrades have been expressing concern that Euro-zone inflation might not be on its way down to 2% this year - 2% being the European Central Bank's (ECB's) inflation target rate. Therefore, the ECB might have to raise its policy rate sooner rather than later. Alan "Trust Me" Greenspan refuses to even publicly announce an inflation target much less hit one. Should global investors be concerned about Alan's cavalier attitude about US inflation?
---
Now, to a global investor, it is not so much what the inflation rate is in a particular currency, but what the inflation-adjusted return is in that currency. The US dollar is the reserve currency for the world. What this means is that global investors will tend to place their excess "cash" balances in dollar-denominated short-term assets. But if the inflation-adjusted returns on US-dollar short-term assets starts to fall relative to the inflation-adjusted returns on short-term assets in other currencies, then the dollar may start to lose some of its appeal as a reserve currency. And if that happens, there could be a sizeable exodus from dollars into other currencies.
---
And in April, the level of the inflation-adjusted policy rates were 0.11% in the US and 0.85% in the Euro-zone. April data are not yet available for Japan, but as of March, the inflation-adjusted Bank of Japan policy rate was 1.21%.
----
Whom do you want to trust with your money - Alan or Wim? Judging from the behavior of the US dollar in recent weeks, Wim is starting to gain more trust at Alan's expense.

Spartacus

(05/21/2002; 03:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76108)

(No Subject)

Sorry for dubbel post.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 03:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76109)

DRD to issue shares for hedge

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BBF0064D092?OpenDocument
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG � Durban Roodepoort Deep [NASDAQ:DROOY], the South African gold producer, is to confirm later this week it privately placed 7 million new shares, about 4.6 percent of its total shares in issue, in an effort to finally remove its hedge book.

Black Blade: Another miner will clear off the hedge book! Though I am not thrilled when a company dilutes its share base. The more reductions in Gold miner hedge books the better as this puts upward pressure on the POG. It appears that the Mega-Hedgers will be "twisting in the wind" as the POG moves higher.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 04:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76110)

Less Gold May Be Coming To Market

http://www.mips1.net/422567CB004DBB8F/UNID/LCLY-5ABPUS?OpenDocumentSA gold strike could spread � union

Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG -- South Africa's gold mine workers took the gloss off a superb day's trade for bullion and gold shares as they raised the prospect of an industry-wide strike, which would bring the country's mining sector to a grinding halt. The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), the country's largest mining union with 300,000 members, warned that the four-day-old strike at Harmony Gold's Randfontein mine was primed to spread across the rest of the country's mining sectors.

Moferefere Lekorotsoane, a spokesman for the NUM, says the dissatisfaction among workers at Randfontein could stretch beyond the single Harmony mine and indeed the gold sector, to other mining groups operating in the country. He said, however, it would be up to the regional offices of the NUM to decide whether or not to strike. "But this is a mining industry problem," said Lekorotsoane. "There is definitely a lot of scope for this to spread to any of the other mines in South Africa. Imagine if other workers in the Free State, or anywhere else, decide to take up this issue," he said.

Black Blade: Yep, a lot less Gold supply if the strike goes forward. Gold demand already outstrips supply.

(05/21/2002; 04:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76111)

@ Black Blade........Durban new issue

Regarding Drooy's new issue, from another poster on another site.
Durbans share issue
(durbandude) May 20, 21:17

Last quarter Harmony had revenue of $192.54 million, and a net earnings of $52.957 million, 164.7 million shares fully diluted and an EPS of $0.32

Now lets suppose that at the beginning of last quarter they had hedges that cost them $20 million in revenue.
The revenue would have been $172.54 million, with the same 27.5% tax rate, the net income would have been $38.463 million. The EPS would have been $0.23.35, A 25% reduction!!

Now lets suppose that at the beginning of the quarter they issued stock to close the hedges. At the beginning of the quarter their share price was $11.31
They would have to issue 1.77 million shares to get the $20 million. The new fully diluted shares would be 166.47 million shares, but they would then have received the full $192.54 revenue and $52.956 million net earnings. The new EPS with 166.47 million share would be $0.318
ONLY A $0.002 loss per share as compared to a loss of $0.0865

W-W is doing the right thing!!!

durbandude

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 04:16:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76112)

Ernst & Young Pull An Arthur Andersen

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020521/ap_on_bi_ge/sec_ernst___young_7
SEC Alleges Ernst & Young Broke Rules

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Federal regulators alleged Monday that big accounting firm Ernst & Young violated rules designed to keep accountants independent from the companies they audit, by engaging in business with a software company client. Ernst & Young said it was "surprised and disappointed" by the Securities and Exchange Commission's action and disputed the agency's allegations. The issue of auditor independence is among those at the heart of the Enron affair, which has raised questions about Enron's longtime accountant Arthur Andersen having done both auditing and consulting work for the energy-trading company. The SEC's action came as the Senate Banking Committee postponed.

Black Blade: Yet another Wall Street scandal is breaking.

BTW, Liz Clayman, CNBC anchor is making snide remarks about Gold and Gold Bugs this morning. Looks like Gold is getting under a lot of peoples skin. If it was such an unimportant "barbarous relic", the media sure is going out of their way to make derisive comments.

Graefin

(05/21/2002; 04:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76113)

Riding The Golden Bull...This deserves a re-post!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?PfvID=2179Considering we just hit a new high yesterday and that was the fourth high within a six-month time period, this article deserves a re-post. Here is the snippit I refer to:
"Once again, let's take a look at our most recent modern-day examples. One of the characteristics we find when examining gold bulls over the past 25 years is that the first -- and most violent -- wave of the great �79-�80 bull market (which, you'll recall, actually began forming in mid-�77) contained at least four subsequent monthly highs within a six-month period. These new highs need not occur in four consecutive months; they just need to occur within a six-month timeframe. In other words, after the bottom of the cycle in June of �77, there was a new high established in July, another in September, a third in October and a fourth in November. Again, I want to emphasize that this pattern applies only to the first and earliest stage of a newly forming major gold bull market (such as the one I believe we are entering right now)."

Snippit: "Have we established four subsequent new highs within a six-month period since the triple-bottom lows last year? Let's take a look. Since the third occurrence of those lows in April last year (around $255), a new high was established in May. A second new, subsequent high was not established until September. So even if a new high had occurred in October (which it didn't), it wouldn't have mattered, since it would have been only the third new high in the series and October was the six-month deadline after the first new high in May."

Snippit: "But what about this year? After the double-bottom lows in November and December a new monthly high was established in January (high #1); another new monthly high was established in February (high #2). No new high was established in March. Then, this month (written in late April), a third new high has been established (just last week). Now, we need only surpass it one time between May 1 and June 30 to have our fourth monthly high within six months. Remember that the first high in this series was presented to us in January, thus making June 30 the six-month deadline. Should a fourth new high occur on or before June 30, it's a strong indication we are, indeed, in the early stages of a powerful new bull market in gold. This would apply to silver as well, since it always follows gold in the major moves."

<<<<>>>>>>
Peace, Love, and Silver/Gold Bars...
- Gr�fin

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 04:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76114)

OZ � Stock Dilution

Personally I prefer that every time a company gets themselves into a pickle, that they pay off debt with earnings. Unfortunately at some point there are just an ungodly number of shares floating about. In short it is actually "stealing" from the current shareholders. Some companies issue more shares over and over, and eventually some do "reverse splits", and the theft is then complete � a transfer of wealth as it were. This is the very same reasoning I use when I vote share proxies. I always vote against issue of additional shares, warrants, stock option compensation, etc. If the company feels that they should compensate employees and management with shares, then they should purchase those shares on the open market thereby pushing the share price higher as well. However, given a choice between unsustainable forward sales positions and issuing new shares I would probably opt to unwind the hedge book. Anyway, that's my opinion. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, I see that some Gold shares are trading higher in the "pre-market". I see that market indices are higher. Maybe there could be some "selling into the rally". Anyway, there is no fundamental reason for the stock market indices to move higher. I will be more interested in seeing how much trading volume there is at the end of today's session.

(05/21/2002; 04:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76115)

@ Black Blade

I understand what you are saying.. But gold miners have been suffering for years and years and I can understand what Drooy is trying to achieve under the present situation. Gee I need some unhedged miners to buy!ha ha. That is the good point for Drooy, to get out of hedges now.
Many thanks.
OZ

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 04:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76116)

Gold In For A Sustained Bull Trend-Gold Fields

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020521/15/2pucj.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Spot gold's overnight gains to its highest levels since February 2000 are sustainable and part of a bullish trend suggesting further potential, according to Chris Thompson, World Gold Council chairman and chief executive of the world's fourth largest gold producer, Gold Fields (GFI).

In a telephone interview with Dow Jones Newswires from Johannesburg, Thompson stressed that all the essential conditions for gold to rise higher are in place. Namely, a weaker U.S. dollar, Middle East tensions and lingering doubts surrounding the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. "Quite honestly, all the risks that I can see are to the upside," he said. Insisting that supply over the coming years will continue to tighten, Thompson's longer term outlook is also bullish.

Although Gold Fields' production may have benefited from recent acquisitions, the gold industry's overall production will continue to decline in coming years. "It's a little like shuffling deck chairs around," he said. Commenting on some independent studies that have predicted a 30% decline in industrial production worldwide over the coming 10 years, Thompson said some of the figures appear overly optimistic. Gold supply is certainly falling in South Africa, the world's largest gold producing nation, he noted. He said if the industry were to try to take advantage of the yellow metal's recent rise by boosting production, "it's a long pipeline, somewhere between five-seven years, so nothing is going to change the situation straight away."

Black Blade: Definitely! Mines are closing, some are depleting, no new exploration virtually anywhere, and demand outstripping supply. Yeah, I would say that there is a lot of potential for a rising POG to much higher levels. For any real new exploration activity to occur a sustained Gold price of at least $350 to $380 an ounce is necessary.

Belgian

(05/21/2002; 04:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76117)

@ Spartacus tripple post

Didn't mind to read your excellent news in threefold.
Euro/dollar exchange rate is reaching 0,93 barrier. Corresponding POG >>> 324$ (small resistance) and then up to 354$ and euro/dollar parity. Is it a declining dollar or a rising euro ? It is a *STABLE* euro, ignoring (temporary) the dollar's troubles. It is this ultra-stable euro that will attract trade with Euroland, away from the dollar-block. The "Architects*, remember ? TA (TI) long and short time for euro/dollar is fantastic and imvho, reliable at present. TA (TI) of goldmines is totally worthless now (JPM-misser) !

The ongoing reversal in euro/dollar exchange rate has nothing to do with their respective strenght or weakness in economy, but everything with the differences in currency-management ! That's quite a fundamental difference from another kind, never to be discussed, openly, by the dollar-block. And it is exactly here that Gold's force is stealthly used for different (opposite) purposes. What TG outlined in tempo non suspecto, is materializing today !
The ignorant remain stubbornly ignorant.

Even Sir Thompson Chris, heading the new WGC after 12 years of amateurism, got the message ! INVEST IN GOLD !! IN_VEST_IN_GOLD_ !

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 05:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76118)

Market Futures Rockin - Hope Is On Consumer Spending

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The market futures are sharply higher well above "fair value". It appears that the "pump and prime" is on. Retail earnings from several companies are due out today. The hope is on the consumer. Of course the consumer is tapping the refi market (home mortgages and refinancing) for cash. Consumers are digging themselves deeper into a very big hole as debt is at record levels.

- Black Blade

Paper Avalanche

(05/21/2002; 06:31:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76119)

Aristotle & All - ongoing silver debate

Thanks for the reply to my Buffet post. I do believe, as you stated, that there are certainly many possibilities other than the two that I suggested. I hope that I have not come off too aggressive in my defense of silver. I have learned so very much from the many great minds that contribute to this board and I thank each and every person for his/her contribution which has allowed me to see the forest from the trees.

I still wrestle with the silver vs. gold issue. I am currently looking to grab pre-1933 gold ASAP in order to balance out my holdings. If I were able to intellectually digest that which has been submitted on the golden trail as to the fate of silver, I would exchange all of my silver for gold this afternoon. I must, however, be true to my own mind (limited as it may be) and my adherance to logic and personal market/historical analysis. With that said, I hope to continue the spirited debate between us concerning the place for silver in the new gold world. Please accept, in advance, my apologies for being fervent and, sometimes, too aggressive in my responses to anti-silver posts. I believe that we both are certain that we are correct in our position regarding silver (until one of us convinces the other otherwise - smile!!). One thing is certain, IMHO, we will certainly have both our theories tested in the VERY near future.

Have a terrific week.

PA

sector

(05/21/2002; 08:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76120)

@Black Blade - Steven Jon Kaplan...The Consumate Dissembler

One need only look at his 5/1/2002 commentary.

It is filled with an unimaginable amount of disinformation regarding producer hedges. His figures are 180 degrees from the truth according to theminingweb's table of producer hedge positions [Recently posted here].

Mr. Kaplan must believe that the world wide web doesn't exist and that his bogus figures won't be found out.

There are generally accepted to be 3,000 tonnes of hedged gold from producers... contrary to Kaplan's hallucinations.

His continued bearish views in this new gold bull are a perfect foil to his constant bullish views during the pre-Washington Agreement, downward pog spiral. He is therefore a marvelous contrary indicator. As long as he is bearish...mortgage refi the house and go long.

It cannot be a simple matter of stupid analysis...it appears that Mr. Kaplan is being paid to print stupidity.

Strad Master

(05/21/2002; 09:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76122)

The fast answer to your question.

Squid266Dear Friend - You need look no farther than the phone number at the top of this page. I'm not in any way in the employ of USA Gold or it's esteemed founder, Mike Kosares, but I can state categorically that you willl get no better, faster, or more honest service anywhere. And believe me, I've gotten royally screwed by some of the other gold concerns out there. (FYI - there are a lot of them!) So for your friend's peace of mind, give him the number above and rest assured that he's in good hands with his gold. I'm sure many others at this forum will agree wholeheartedly. Best of luck!

Strad Master

(05/21/2002; 09:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76123)

P.S.

Squid266Why on earth would your friend want to unload his gold NOW - of all times??? I think he'll be very sorry in the long run if he does.

Strad Master

(05/21/2002; 09:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76124)

Oops! Correction

sGuid266Forgive me for messing up your handle. I meant Sguid266

goldquest

(05/21/2002; 09:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76125)

The Color Of Money

http://www.rense.com/general25/dedl.htmComing soon!

YGM

(05/21/2002; 09:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76126)

Fund Buying Interest in Silver above $4.80........hmmmmm!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020521/markets_silver_1.htmlTuesday May 21, 9:32 am Eastern Time
Reuters Market News
NY silver rises to 15-month high on fund buying

NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - COMEX silver futures raced out of the gate Tuesday to a 15-month high, chased by funds after breaking above the old 2002 high.

Silver has been taking its cue from gold, and Tuesday's rally lagged Monday's surge in gold bullion prices to their highest in more than two years.

July silver shot to $4.865 an ounce in early trade, its highest since Feb 7, 2001. It accelerated after breaking above the April 2 high at $4.77 and then $4.80 an ounce, where commodity players had pre-placed buy orders expecting more gains.

At 0920 EDT the benchmark contract was up 6.0 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $4.84 an ounce.

"There seemed to be some new fund interest above $4.80," said a floor broker. "Anything above $4.80 has been taken out."

**Looks like the playing field for Silver is going to get rougher for the 'Short Specs'......YGM

Sguid266

(05/21/2002; 09:56:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76127)

attn: Strad Master

No worries on the name...

As for my client...I think he is just unfamiliar with the market and would like to know the steps he would need to take to unload. We have advised him no to, but he insists on our research effort...hey, the customer is always right, right??

Chris Powell

(05/21/2002; 10:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76128)

New commentary by Reg Howe

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1112New commentary by Reg Howe about the
faltering suppression of the gold price:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1112

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

TownCrier

(05/21/2002; 10:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76129)

Sguid266

I heartily invite you to repost your msg#: 76121, but this time sans e-mail address. Nothing personal. It's just the way we do things around here.

R.

Graefin

(05/21/2002; 10:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76130)

The Color of Money...Goldquest, All...

I find it very interesting that the U.S. is changing the color of their currency to protect against counterfeit. The following quote is taken from pages 22 and 23 of Mahendra Sharma's book, "2002 World Prophecies:"

Snippit: " After mid 2001, the Dollar will lose its charm against many more currencies in the world. The new century does not favour the U.S. currency very much in the long run. At the end of December 2001 the U.S. Dollar will try to move up, but will fail. During 2002, the Dollar will start a downward slide again and hit a low against major currencies of the world, and at the same time sophisticated counterfeit U.S. dollar notes will flood the market and that will bring additional instability to the Dollar because many countries will refuse to accept the Dollar note."

Mahendra Sharma
end snip

"Interesting"
- Gr�fin

JCTex

(05/21/2002; 10:49:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76131)

Strad Master (5/21/02; 09:37:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 76122)

StradMaster, you are 163% right about Kosares. Great people, great company, and great service. And most important, integrity.

Waverider

(05/21/2002; 11:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76132)

Gold prices soar on uncertainty

http://globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/C/20020521/wbgold?hub=businessBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory_Bus.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wbgold&date=20020521&archive=RTGAM&site=Business&ad_page_name=breakingnews-businessSnippit:
"Gold prices are riding high, fired by fund managers scrambling for a safe haven asset as political crises rage from the Indian-Pakistan border to the Middle East, metals analysts said on Tuesday.

Cross-fire between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan coupled with violence in the Middle East and a U.S. warning on Sunday that another terror attack against it was a near certainty, have pushed gold to its highest level in more than two years."

Waverider: Good article for the general public covering the variety of reasons Gold is coming into vogue as a safe haven for investment.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 11:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76133)

IT DIDN'T TAKE MUCH TO KNOCK STOCKS DOWN By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/48377.htm
Snippit:

May 21, 2002 -- WHAT'S it going to take to get the stock market moving higher again?

Glad you asked. To some people, last week's rally looked pretty promising. Bad economic news was ignored; good news cheered. And Wall Street, especially, proclaimed the second coming of the bull market. Then yesterday stock prices declined because investors paid attention to bad news. This time it was the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which fell by the largest amount in seven months. Add a little concern about more accounting fraud (this time at Computer Associates Inc.), a dollop of terrorism threats and some worries about profits at GE and Microsoft and all of last week's promise suddenly disappeared.

Here's reality, folks.

The stock market rose last week because of options expiration. I can't count the times that the "experts" concoct lamebrained reasons for the market's rise during these weeks. But the truth is that trading pros move the market higher almost every time for their own purposes. For those of you who are technically inclined, here is what goes on: Institutions that write options against stocks are forced to buy stock and deliver it against options expiring in the money due to tax considerations. This works best for them if stock prices are rising - so, the pros push the market higher. This week there is no incentive for the pros to boost stocks, so a little bad news caused a decline - as it should be.

Black Blade: Interesting article. Much as I have said here, however, I missed the options angle completely. This also plays into the idea of market manipulation ala The President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT). There are growing concerns of war about to break out among two Central Asian nuclear powers � India and Pakistan are at each others throats and at least one Pakistani general is calling for use of nuclear weapons. The situation is very tenuous right now and fighting has intensified over the last 4 days. The region becomes more unstable almost hourly. Also, an official at the FBI has announced that suicide bombings in the US are "inevitable". We have seen this occur in Israel and Pakistan already and the point made by the FBI is that it will happen in the US and there is nothing that can stop it. Meanwhile Gold is breaking out above $317/oz. And surprisingly NY Crude and NG are lower just ahead of today's inventory reports.

TownCrier

(05/21/2002; 11:10:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76134)

With mainstream headline thoughts like this paving the way... how long?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020521/economy_dollar_growth_1.htmlREUTERS HEADLINE: The dollar's fall could be good for the globe

NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - If anything, a gradual decline in the value of the dollar could be just the elixir the global economy needs to get growth back up to speed.

After finally succumbing in the past three months, the dollar's quick 6 percent tumble against major currencies has raised worries of even greater trouble over the horizon for the U.S. currency as investors see a tepid U.S. recovery and fret about the country's $1 billion a day fix on foreign capital.

The danger is that a mild dollar depreciation could turn into a harsher collapse....

The mammoth U.S. current account deficit -- the broadest gauge of trade, and at 4 percent of the $10 trillion economy the largest among the G7 economies -- has become the focal point of investor worries. Many economists expect the gap to swell even larger in the coming year due to higher commodity prices and U.S. demand for foreign goods.

What will be crucial for the United States to keep financing the current account deficit is a return to global economic growth, analysts said. Otherwise, foreign investors may demand higher market interest rates in the United States to convince them to keep ponying up for the country's debt.

--------(click URL for full text)----------

What we have are ongoing, real-time economic experiments in sustainability, and we find ourselves in the middle of the petri dish. A position in gold will put you safely on the outside, looking in.

R.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 11:14:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76135)

Former Software Executives Charged

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47782-2002May20.html
Snippit:

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil charges yesterday against five former executives of Northern California software firms Legato Systems Inc., Unify Corp. and Quintus Corp., accusing them of fraudulently inflating sales figures. The U.S. attorney's office in San Francisco filed criminal fraud charges against three of the executives.

Black Blade: Yep, another breaking Wall Street scandal is coming to light. When will these scandals end? Today, Merrill Lynch was let off the hook by NY AG Eliot Spitzer with a sweet deal where ML will pay a fine out of "petty cash". However, there still exists the possibility of many investor lawsuits and the loss of confidence by investors big and small.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 11:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76136)

Rumsfeld: Terrorists inevitably will acquire weapons of mass destruction

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020521/ap_wo_en_po/us_attacks_warnings_5
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Terrorists are sure to eventually acquire nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld warned Congress on Tuesday. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya and North Korea are developing such weapons of mass destruction and will supply them to terrorists to whom they already are linked, Rumsfeld said.

"They (terrorists) inevitably will get their hands on them and they will not hesitate to use them," Rumsfeld told a Senate subcommittee in Congress.

Black Blade: Warren Buffett said exactly the same thing last month, and this just after yesterday's FBI announcement that an attack with weapons of mass destruction by terrorists was "inevitable". We do "live in interesting times".

A good time to get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/21/2002; 11:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76138)

Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

goldfool

(05/21/2002; 11:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76139)

Black Blade 11:14:54

Ever hear of the Blunderbuss Theory? The primary objective of Operation Blunderbuss is to throw so many concepts and "news" missiles into the air, citizens cannot tell which direction to take, which things are important and which less important or not pertinent at all. They all seem equally deadly or equally innocuous.

Confronted with "Blunderbuss," the flock can't tell where to move. Even if they recognize the onslaught, they can't separate the wheat from the chaff, evaluate the balls in the air, or assign relative weight to any of these missiles. They all seem the same. One story after another, they all come and go in a short-lived hail of media blitz where the audience tends to treat them all as just so much fodder. The next coming of Christ would be just another story, more grist to the mill in a continuing onslaught and right next to "Mary had a little lamb" (by cloning it), got married and had an instant litter of 7 children (by using fertility drugs).

Naturally, Operation Blunderbuss has advantages to the perpetrators. Like the food gatherers of old, they need little in the way of skill or targeting. Just set the mechanism and pull the trigger. You can also hide or disguise a great many dirty deeds with this mix without much chance of being noticed or by simply not loading or allowing them to be loaded in the barrel in the first place.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 11:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76140)

India, Pakistan �very close� to war

http://msnbc.com/news/753586.asp
Muslim leader shot in Kashmir as envoy warns of all-out conflict

Snippit:

A separatist Kashmiri leader was shot to death during a memorial rally in Indian-controlled Kashmir Tuesday, as India's prime minister headed to the violence-wracked Himalayan province and fears grew of another war. Pakistan's ambassador to Britain, Abdul Kader Jaffer, said the nuclear-armed neighbors are "very close" to war.

Black Blade: It is not looking good. US forces are said to be on alert in case war breaks out and intervention is needed. Note that the west has troops downwind in Afghanistan should nukes be used.

sector

(05/21/2002; 12:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76141)

Regarding the Aftermath of the First Use of Nuclear Weapons on US Soil...

...against whom do we retaliate? Is there a list of target cities? At what point does the US draw up such a list? After 2 weapons are used?...5?... 7?Instead of aterting our citizens to the pending use of nuclear weapons against them, the administration ought to be publically listing the retaliatiory targets, the number, kind and size of weapons that will be employed. Perhaps then the cooler heads in this conflict will prevail upon Osama.

So far there has not been a real response to the Pearl Harbor of 9/11. Airport security beefed up? Homeland Security Corps? Borders sealed? 300,000 deportees rounded up? Real responses?

Well there IS the PPT and 100s of Billions of dollars gushing forth from the Fed...as if the Fed were the Pentagon and our only defense concern was financial.

Perhaps all the bombast, conning of Arab children "Soldiers" and the cowardly panorama of Jihad was destined to lead to a true retalitory response from the West. As Black Blade keeps saying, it will indeed be all too "Interesting". Especially for the people on the correct side of the missles.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 12:23:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76142)

The Texas Hedges of Barrick

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/fekete052202.html
An interesting take on Barrick's hedging scheme. Almost all Gold shares are higher - except Barrick. The news appears to be leaking out. The "Day of the Hedger" is over.

BTW, the US Dollar has pulled lower, however, Gold trading has ended for the day in NY, so the response has not been accounted for in the POG so far. Also, look how Silver did today.

- Black Blade

canamami

(05/21/2002; 12:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76143)

sector- total agreement

If some states are giving weapons of mass destruction to terrorists to use against the West, we should give the populations of such countries (only if possible from the perspective of our own self-interest) a week or so to terminate that regime. Then, if the errant regime is still in place, the US should obliterate any country that appears to be willing to assist in the use of weapons of mass destruction against the US.

In the new world order, it seems to be "kill or be killed".

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 12:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76144)

Pakistan and India at War!

The Pakistani ambassador has supposedly just announced that war is imminent according to CNBC. Both sides have been mobilizing for war for several weeks and it appears that cross border movement could happen any moment. When that happens the "birds" may fly. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

TownCrier

(05/21/2002; 12:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76145)

Reasonable speculation toward the next "Washington Agreement"

The current 5-year Central Bank Gold Agreement of 26 September 1999 was signed by the (then) 11 members of the European Monetary Union, along with the ECB, and the central banks of England, Sweden, and Switzerland. Clearly a Eurosystem-dominated initiative, this agreement -- to clearly delineate any forthcoming reallocations in gold and, as importantly, to curb gold lending activities -- will in all likelihood be retailored and extended when the current one expires in September 2004.

Who might be the formal signatories next time for this Eurosystem-centered agreement -- will the list grow? Certainly, Greece is now a member. Additionally, the following excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article (about an unrelated model for voting on policy) gives us a glimpse at what MAY come to pass.

--------Ten countries are seeking to join the European Union in 2004 -- Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Malta, Lithuania, the Slovak Republic, Cyprus and Slovenia.
+
Romania and Bulgaria are planning to join later in the decade. Turkey hasn't begun membership talks yet. The accession of all 13 states would increase the area of the EU by 34 percent and add 105 million people to its population, according to the European Commission.
-------

Like learning a new language, ever more and more international people will be thinking in the monetary verse of the euro, at the expense of the dollar's relevance. And for those who want a respite from the ever-inflating currency of their realm, a position in physical gold holdings will serve that role in place of the inflating currency of a neighboring realm.

Think about it. It puts forex more squarely on the fundamentals of international balance of trade, properly reflected (absent paper gold, that is) in the various prices of gold expressed in any given currency.

R.

Waverider

(05/21/2002; 12:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76146)

Fear of Mideast oil crisis causes alarm

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/21_05_02/art4.aspSnippit:

"There are wider geopolitical concerns that are increasingly influencing, if not dominating, US policymaking and which can be expected to intensify over the next few years. There seems to be a growing sentiment in the US, greatly exacerbated by the events of Sept. 11, that it must lessen its dependence on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf producers, by developing alternative sources of energy that will end, or at least significantly reduce, Riyadh's influence on oil supply and prices. The political and economic consequences of such a dramatic policy shift are immense, particularly in this region."

Waverider: Very interesting article out of the Lebanese News - covers a lot of issues BB has already mentioned.

R Powell

(05/21/2002; 13:12:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76147)

Silver song

Over the river and through resistance
To 484 per ounce we go
Big money, they say
Has gone long today
From Comex to To-ky-o, so..

Over the river and still heading up
The chart a sight to behold
Resistence becomes support
And I'm pleased to report
Silver runs with her good buddy-Gold

Perhaps not as good as Goldenrod, but today seemed like a great day for a song. This was the fourth try at breaking through the 480 level. However, I'll feel much safer with a weekly close above that same 480.
Hey, mikal, Solomon (and silver lovers everywhere, where have they all gone?)....Yahoooooo!!
Rich

Operative

(05/21/2002; 13:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76148)

Maybe I have been reading too many BB posts...

so instead of reading any more of his doom/gloom posts today I turned on FOX News. What do I see? that New York has a terrorist alert for this weekend....and live pics of black hawks flying over the Lady of Liberty and the Brooklyn Bridge. Interesting times, you bet! BB's advice for some food & water might really apply to the upcoming weekend.

Pizz

(05/21/2002; 13:44:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76149)

R Powell

Wasn't it just about a week and a half ago you were a little nervous about silver ever doing anything above 4.60 or so?

(In my experience that's usually a good time to buy, but don't read anything into this like now it might be a good time to sell (smile). Hang in there for the ride.

Feels good, don't it???

Pizz

Rock

(05/21/2002; 13:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76150)

Pakistan at war with India, the big show down!

Central Command to all guests at the castleHi everyone, I just got booted after typing out a nice little communique to the guests of the castle and I lost all my text. So here I am starting all over again, from now on I'm typing it out on an email letter head so if my computer goes down I won't lose that document ( a fool proof security inhancement) I was basically just going to say how war in the Middle East as well as with India and Pakistan is as good as a done deal. Its only a matter of time, I think we all can agree to that. There are over 1 million troops on that India Pakistan border, its a hot zone let me tell you.

Just when you think you have one war in some what of a stand still two of the other necular powers start going at it again. And as sure as it was mentioned last week, VP Dick Chaney said it again, "Its not a matter of "if" the terrorist are going to attack the United States but "when."

That dont make me feel very secure hearing the top levels of our own government say they can't protect its citizens from a foreign enemy coming in and blowing us up.
That's why BB and others like myself have been trying to drill and rivit this into our heads and that is start a food storage program, get some extra cash on hand and even a weapon of some sort to protect yourself, get some precious metals as an insurance to protect what assets you do have. And "when" the crap hits the fan you'll feel great that you were prepared.

The local and national media is warning us that the terrorist are coming, they are after us and they will reach their objectives. That being the case its up to each one of us to make sure we do everything we possibly can to make this plight as easy as possible, because there's going to be a whole lot of hurting going on!

Cheers to Good Health, Safety and God Speed,

Rock

Cavan Man

(05/21/2002; 14:14:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76151)

@sector 76141

Dear Sir: I salute you! Where are our priorities? Wherefore common sense?

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/21/2002; 14:22:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76152)

BAD DREAM ???????????

Must have had a bad dream ...... BUSH goes to EUROPE tomorrow and coerces all countries to play ball with the US dollar. GERMANY gives up on EURO and has US tariffs removed as their concession. EURO, lacking unity and defense, falls against the dollar and all other currencies. OIL goes down over a $1.00. and GOLD drops $10.00 and silver drops $.30. BUSH is declared a HERO and the almighty dollar gains and lives for another extended period of time. GOLD heads for under $300.00 and NEW Down trend is inacted. Silver Heads for $4.15 again. DOLLAR survives and BUSH AVERTS the derivative meltdown. SAY IN ISN'T SO! SAY IT WON'T HAPPEN!

Usul

(05/21/2002; 14:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76153)

Pakistan and India 'close to war'

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/worldnews/page.cfm?objectid=11888918&method=full&siteid=89488.

Usul

(05/21/2002; 14:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76154)

Golds glitter in uncertain times

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1187993,00.htmlEspecially physical gold in one's own possession- the whole point being that it is no-one else's liability; nobody can default on it; whatever happens to human society, it always has its own bill-paying ability.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2002; 14:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76155)

@ cobra (too)

X CeL ent: Irish eyes are smiling. Best.....CM

Graefin

(05/21/2002; 15:44:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76156)

Black Blade...msg 76133, Options expiration

I didn't think of options expiration driving the market either. Danke! No wonder the market "rallied" last week.
- Gr�fin

jinx44

(05/21/2002; 15:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76157)

Barrick--is it what we think it is?????

It just crossed my mind that maybe Barrick is somehow in league with the FED and UST. What would be a better poster-child for the FED-speak about "buying up gold mines"? When the price rises too far for Barrick, the FED may be the secret white knight that snatches it up and pays off with brand new FRN's. Plausible??

slingshot

(05/21/2002; 16:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76158)

Level Of Preparedness

Thanks to USAGOLD and Black BladeThe Doomers are out if full force and those Interesting Times are upon us. Month after month,time after time, BB has asked us to prepare.How many of us heeded his words of wisdom? Tonight people will turn on their T.V. and get the news. What are they going to do tomorrow? NOTHING! All these warnings and NOTHING.
When you go to work tomorrow drop a few lines like, What do you think of the warnings on T.V.? Or, Are you going to stock up? Something like that. The answers will befuddle you. I suspect one answer will be, I have two gallons of water but plan to get a case of beer and a pepperoni pizza just to be sure.
As the times get crazier I just wanted you all to know you Done Your Best.
Gold Now More Than Ever.
Slingshot----------------------<>

Boilermaker

(05/21/2002; 16:13:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76159)

Reg Howe Commentary

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary20.html#anchor6097snippet;
Patriot Plays Tarzan. The laws of the jungle as laid down in The Jungle Books by Rudyard Kipling do not give much guidance in the gold jungle, where creatures with ordinary intelligence and common sense must deal with politicians as well as each other. Yet every jungle needs a Tarzan, swinging from spot to spot, sounding a distinctive yell, saving those in distress, and generally setting right some of the wrongs common in any Hobbesian scene. Bill Murphy -- once split end for the old Boston Patriots of the American Football League, now proprietor of Le Metropole Cafe and chairman of GATA -- is Tarzan of the gold jungle. Some of his best advice to those who want to survive in this dangerous environment is summed up in a bit of Kipling doggerel:

And the end of the fight is a tombstone white, with the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear: "A fool lies here who tried to hustle the East."

"The Naulakha" (ch. 5, heading, 1892)

comment;
Reg Howe's latest commentary gives credit where credit is due. Gold bugs come in all different flavors. From the flamboyant to the erudite, the meek to the bold, the rich to the poor. One defining similarity of a gold bug is an abiding belief that fiat moneys and the governments that promulgate them are untrustworthy.

slingshot

(05/21/2002; 16:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76160)

Hoosier Goldbug

Bad Dream?Buy the Dips , Buy the Dips. Some whip-saw action in the spot of gold and silver would shake things up a bit.;o)
Slingshot-------------------<>

sector

(05/21/2002; 16:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76161)

Merrill Settles New York Analyst Probe

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=990902Last Updated: May 21, 2002 04:11 PM ET

By Per Jebsen and Brian Kelleher
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co. MER.N on Tuesday agreed to pay $100 million to settle charges it issued overly bullish stock tips, striking a deal that could lay the groundwork to make Wall Street research more objective.
New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer had charged that the No. 1 U.S. brokerage misled investors by tailoring its research to please investment banking clients. Spitzer released e-mails showing Merrill analysts -- including former star Internet analyst Henry Blodget -- privately derided stocks they publicly touted.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A wrist slap.

But the real damage has already been done. Nobody trusts these whores...nobody.

From the above report:
"Even now only 2% of research reports are 'sell'".

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/21/2002; 16:37:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76162)

AWAKE AND STABILIZED !!!!!!

What am I saying??????????????
1.) I want a strong dollar/low stabalized pricing for oil and gold! I am tired of paying premiums for pre-1933 gold coins!
2.) I have a job/income, so I want capital infusion into the markets; get them buying up the bonds so I can have low home equity loans, buy all the imported junk/stuff/values from overseas that I desire.
3.) I do not want any competition from the euro, yen, swiss franc, etc.
4.) I want to continue my dull, boring life since the GOLD HIGH in the 1980s.
5.)I want Al Gore, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, Alan Greenspan,the DEMOCRATS back in control.
6.)I want to buy CHEAP GOLD!!!!!!

Sierra Madre

(05/21/2002; 16:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76163)

canamami's post No. 76143

It takes all kinds to make a world, and my comments are hardly likely to cause any change in your way of feeling and thinking, but, as an outsider to the U.S., I can tell you that your remarks have a barbaric ring to them.

"We should give the populations of such countries....a week or so to terminate that regime. Then, if the errant regime is still in place, the US should OBLITERATE any country that appears to be willing to assist in the use of weapons of mass destruction against the US".

Please suppose for a moment, that the US is not the only big bully on the block, as it is at present. Suppose China decided to follow your policy and "advise the population of the US, that the population has a week or so to terminate the US regime. Then, if the US government is still in place, China should OBLITERATE the US"

Canamami, can the population of the US change its government? Absolutely not! Can the people in the Middle Eastern Countries "terminate" their governments, as you say? Of course not! And yet, you talk of OBLITERATION of millions.

Enough of such talk. The topic of this forum is GOLD. Let's talk about GOLD, not about obliterating millions of innocents.

Sierra

Graefin

(05/21/2002; 16:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76164)

Sector...Merrill settles...

My guess? Merrill Lynch settled to make them appear to be "The Good Guys," then snapped the money (and accounting) book closed as a buy off. Though $100,000,000 is a lot of money, it's a drop in the bucket for firms of this size. What else are they hiding??
- Gr�fin

Graefin

(05/21/2002; 17:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76165)

gute nacht alles...past my bedtime.

Aristotle

(05/21/2002; 17:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76166)

HOOSIER GOLDBUG is serving it up at five cents per paper cup!!

Good sir! Your msg#: 76162 strikes me as a very fine example of the old adage, "If life deals you lemons, then make lemonade!"

Makin' the best of what we've got -- with an eye to the future. Cheers to ya!

Gold. Get you some cheaply while it lasts. --- Aristotle

Arcticfox

(05/21/2002; 17:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76167)

Sinclair....

http://lemetropolecafe.com/hemingway_table.cfm?cfid=245820&cftoken=8062595πd=2234Snip...
In this manner all the gold derivatives valued notionally at $280,000,000,000 on the books of 48 countries commerical banks will become REAL VALUE at $354 due to risk control programs calling for more longs to offset the shorts. The $60,000,000,000 Morgan position will also become real value is just the same way but for much more complicated reason. It is the demand caused by the risk control program which mandates the long that has to meet the short on the gold derivative spreads as the price of gold rises. Assuming gold sells at $354 ,a full cover which will be called for by all risk control systems; and that is a functional impossibility because $280,000,000,000 = 26 years production. That amount of gold simply does not exist, not even in all the central banks of the world. It would be equal to 900,000,000 ounces of demand mandated by the world commerical banks risk control programs over $280,000,000,000 notional value today of all gold derivatives granted on their books. This is FACT.

Nomad

(05/21/2002; 17:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76168)

India : It's Too Hot to Nuke Pakistan ... We'll Wait for September ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;$sessionid$413TG2IAAELBTQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2002/05/21/wkash21.xml
Excerpt :

India made detailed preparations for war with Pakistan yesterday, although senior officers said offensive operations would have to wait for the end of searing summer temperatures and the monsoon rain which follows.

Indian soldiers move into position near Jammu
New Delhi placed all paramilitary units along the border under army control and the coast guard under naval command. The foreign minister, Jaswant Singh, said this was "standard operating procedure" when preparing for action.

The country's military is planning for conflict in September, although New Delhi has announced an "exhaustive" diplomatic offensive to pressure Pakistan into ending support for cross-border attacks against the disputed state of Kashmir.

But with the sub-continent suffering a ferocious heatwave that has sent temperatures soaring as high as 122F, officers conceded that an offensive at the moment would be impossible, with temperatures inside tanks reaching 160F.

Nomad

(05/21/2002; 17:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76169)

Optimism Is High ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/21/business/21ECON.html
Despite a Year of Upheavals, Economic Optimism Is High

ith a stock market bust, a recession that wiped out almost two million jobs and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, Americans would seem to have plenty of reasons to worry about a diminished future. Instead, they have emerged from the nation's recent turmoil far more optimistic than after any other economic downturn in a generation.

In place of the economic malaise that generally plagued the public in the 1970's and from the late 1980's through the early 1990's, polls show that by wide margins Americans now say that the coming years will be prosperous and that today's children will live better than their parents.

In a survey by the University of Michigan, for example, half of those polled said that they believe that the next five years will bring continuous good times, more than did at any point from 1970 to 1996 and up from a low of 8 percent in 1975.

Indeed, the recent recession is now almost certain to be the only one since 1949 in which consumer spending did not decline in any quarter. Last week, the government said that retail sales rose a solid 1.2 percent from March to April. But the recovery could be shaping up to be a meager one, according to leading economic indicators released yesterday by the Conference Board, a research firm in New York.

Even though the Dow Jones industrial average has dropped nearly 10 percent in the last year, it is twice as high as it was in late 1995. House prices are still rising in most cities. Unemployment has spiked since late 2000 but is significantly lower than it was at the end of past recessions.

Already, people give a rosier appraisal of the country's condition than they do of their own, said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.

The nation's families do not consider their own financial situation to be better than they did 20 years, according to polls, perhaps because many now work longer hours. But the recent income gains seem to have made them more sanguine about the years ahead.

"Maybe I'm overly optimistic," said Shirley Kagiwama-Manley, a 42-year-old computer programmer who lives in Littleton, Colo., with her husband and two children. "I just think everything is cyclical."

It feels like people I know who have been laid off have been able to find other jobs," said Ann Perry, a 38-year-old agent for artists and photographers in Pleasant Ridge, Mich., a suburb of Detroit. Ms. Perry said her business was "painfully slow" the last year but that the economy still seemed much healthier than it did a decade ago.

"I see people are still buying cars, still making home improvements," Ms. Perry said. "Things can't be that bad if so many people are driving these big, fancy S.U.V.'s."

About 90 percent of investors say the stock market will increase over the next 12 months, up from 64 percent in 1989, according to a survey by the Yale Schol of Management. The level has remained almost unchanged since early 2001 even as the market has dropped.

Nomad : Clueless in America ...

Rock

(05/21/2002; 17:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76170)

Nomad, good point msg76168

Good Article Nomad,
Damn, 160 degrees in those tanks is hot! Total heat exhaustion problems out there for a few hours of work, needless to say your brain is literally fried. Too bad they can't install a nice AC in those tanks for the boys designed for that desert fighting, maybe the Saudi's will have another tellathon to raise the money for some AC's for the royal tanks

Isn't it amazing how God assigns the times in which we live and when we war? If He desires that the India and Pakistan conflict be put on hold for a while longer, He'll bring in 124 degree heat to give them something to think about because this is a modern day miracle of biblicial proportions.

Cheers,
Rock

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/21/2002; 17:51:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76171)

NOT ONLY AWAKE, BUT SANE!

My esteemed ARISTOTLE, and all other members of this fine table:
Probably the greatest wisdom you and all you fellow associates have inspired me with, is the fact of reality that life is a war/game/etc. which should be played as the circumstances dictate, IRREGARDLESS OF HONOR, CREDIBILITY, TRUTH, ETC.. For example let's look at TODAY!
Merrill Lynch Settles for $100,000,000 to avoid legal proceedings-VERY FEW CARE BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS A CROOK, THEY JUST GOT CAUGHT! My broker is a crook, your broker is a crook; that is how they play their game. If we choose to participate, any sane individual would know we are playing with crooks. Joe Sixpack isn't going to cause a ruckus, because he CANNOT afford to. It is just the reality of the legal system.
Pakistan and India confrontation- VERY FEW CARE BECAUSE THEY'RE OVER THERE, NOT HERE, IT DOESN'T AFFECT MR. & MRS. JOE SIXPACK. I guess we will have to side with INDIA, because BUSH has declared war on any harboring of terror, as OSAMA BIN LADEN received medical attention in PAKISTAN, and we will flush TERROR whereever it abodes.
POLITICS/POLITICAL PRESSURE IS GOING TO DESTROY THE EURO-Nobody cares, because the game is not going to end peacefully and the dollar will overcome. BUSH INSTIGATES TARIFFS and Germany comes bidding/asking for forgivenance for ever siding with the EURO, so they can ship their steel and keep their unions going. What could come OUT OF THE BLUE to change this! Maybe Englands Membership??????? Sure people are being setup! BUT WHO REALLY CARES? I'm in it for ME and MY FAMILY. CHEAP OIL, CHEAP GOLD, CHEAP PRICES FOR IMPORTED GOODS,INFLATED MARKETS, INFLATED REAL ESTATE PRICES, LOW MORTGAGE AND HOME EQUITY LOANS, 0% FINANCING FOR VEHICLES, DEEP DISCOUNTS FOR DURABLES, 5 YEARS SAME AS CASH TERMS,
THANKS for making me understand/realize to play the game as it is, instead of how I would want it to be played if I were a more honorable man. I have wasted many a long period of time waiting for the rules/players to change.

The Invisible Hand

(05/21/2002; 18:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76172)

Sudanese Rebel Money

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_2000000/2000980.stmsnippet:

The Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army (SPLA) says it plans to launch a bank and its own currency in southern Sudan where it is in control.
�
But financial analysts in East Africa have expressed doubts
about the viability of the SPLA venture.

"Under what legal political entity would such a currency operate?" a Kenyan financial consultant, Mr Clif Mukulu, told the Nairobi weekly, The East African.
...
===
Can anybody here go there and explain them what to do? Or perhaps we could try to contact them by e-mail?

Cometose

(05/21/2002; 18:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76173)

NOMAD/ POST 76169

24D32BF6MASSES MASSAGED TO KEEP BUYING THE DIPS WHILE WALL STREET PAVES THE WAY FOR THEIR CRONIE TRADING PARTNERS AROUND THE WORLD SELL THE SHEEP THE SECURITIES FROM OVERSEAS AS RACHETING DOWN WE GO...THE SHEEP GOT THE ROSE COLORED GLASSES AT THE PHARMACY WHILE THEY WERE GETTING THEIR PRESCRIPTIONS FILLED .....THE FLEECING IS COMING .....IT'S RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER...

Golden Bear

(05/21/2002; 18:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76174)

Sierra Madre (usagold.com msg#: 76163)

Thank you very much Sierra,

A voice of sanity and reason in this ever increasing world of gunslingers ready to blow others away.

Canamami,

Do you think attitudes like yours have no consequences?

Your thinking was also used by others, and 3000 US innocents were "obliterated" in New York not so long ago...

R Powell

(05/21/2002; 18:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76175)

Sinclair's $354 trip line

That the POG rising is going to cause great distress in the gold market is not in question. This I have no trouble agreeing with but Mr. Sinclair points to the $354 level as if it were a trip line for a claymore mine.
The huge short derivatives position is not (can not be) constructed so that any one specific POG acts as a detonator. Delta hedging takes place for different "strike prices" for different future months at different advancing price levels. It's not as if nothing is done until one price is reached at which point all these positions turn into loses. It doesn't work that way.
Also, refering to the amount, 900,000,000 million ounces, or 26 years of production is meaningless if one accepts that probably 99% of all gold market positions are paper positions and only paper positions which are not backed by metal and are not intended to be settled with metal. This is a fiat money game- win or lose- determined by the POG at future dates. There is no metal exchanged, just paper money, just like a horse race result determines who wins and who loses BUT nobody wins or loses a horse. It's all paper so why refer to unfathomable amounts of gold which of course total more than exists?
I don't mean to belittle Mr. Sinclair's work but I believe, in the interest of clear understanding, this misconception should be clarified.
I do not mean to say covering this derivatives position won't effect POG because it certainly will. POG will go to the proverbial "moon" and lots of money will get exchanged. However, in comparison to the fiat involved, very little gold will change hands. As Michael has stated, with all the smoke and mirrors over these many years, total central bank gold holdings have only declined by maybe 3,000 tonnes. Derivatives, marked-to-market at any one time, may total one specific dollar amount but the total dollar amount of a basket of (or all) derivatives changes with every change in the POG and changes with every passing day in the case of options. Also, these changes vary from month to month in all the future months available. A ten dollar rise in POG will increase the dollar value of a $320 July call much more than a $320 December call. Gold options currently exist in every month from now to Dec. 2003.
I thank Mr. Sinclair and all GATA supporters for all their work but his description of derivatives is not correctly explained and, I'm sure, is being misinterpreted by those not familar with them.
Rich

Golden Bear

(05/21/2002; 18:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76176)

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (msg#: 76171)

"....For example let's look at TODAY!
Merrill Lynch Settles for $100,000,000 to avoid legal proceedings-VERY FEW CARE BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS A CROOK..."

Some do care, those poor soles who lost most of their retirement savings on the recommendation of these crooks. Create enough of them, an Argentine chaos will one day arise in the USA...

Just another example of the sewage sloshing around throughout corporate America and in its political halls.

IGWA

(05/21/2002; 18:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76177)

America Awaits It's Fate... Passively

SO the bad guys are going to do dreadful things in Amercia, and the top brass says there's nothing can be done. "We just have to live with it" was, I think, one quote. Well, that must be comforting to Americans. Hello? Anybody home?

When America experiences even 1/10th of the horror of terrorism that Israel has, I can assure you, something WILL be done.

For a start all non-Americans of Arab nationality will be deported. That will be a first step,not the last.

This war of civilisations has just begun and could still be playing in a town & city near you in 100 years. The rules will change quicker than the $US heading south.

Good for gold though, I have to admit. Pity it will all end in confiscation & tears.(see some good essays on that subject on Gold Eagle...whoops! Is it churlish of me to mention that site??)

Candles & Beans. Get you some.

igwa

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 18:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76178)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmSpinning Their Way to a Summer Rally

Snippit:

Get ready, because this game is going to be played again. The bad news will soon drive the stock markets down to lower levels. The companies that are going to disappoint will air their dirty laundry beginning next month. That should send stock prices lower. Analysts will lower their earnings estimates each week, so by the time actual earnings are reported, they will be better-than-expected and the stage will be set for a summer rally. Even though things below the surface will not have improved, they will be made to look better through hype and spin. Investors and day traders will flock once again into stocks giving the impression of a second half recovery and another trading rally will take place, which will be good for business. The game will be played in the same fashion. Investors will be talked into selling off defensive stocks and will dump them in favor of over-valued companies made to look more attractive than they are. This game will give us our summer rally.

Black Blade: On the mark! We have discussed this here before, however, the sheep are so easily led to slaughter. Let the shearing begin!

mikal

(05/21/2002; 18:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76179)

@R.Powell

Sinclair may believe $354 is significant if paper leases are involved. Also if derivatives other than delta hedges. Or perhaps there are many old positions to be unwound at $354, placed there because of gold's past price/resistance points?

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 19:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76180)

Aquila Plans to Sell as Much as $1 Billion in Assets

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOpoWxS0QXF1aWxh
Snippit:

Kansas City, Missouri, May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Aquila Inc., the No. 4 U.S. utility owner and an energy trader, may sell $1 billion in assets, twice as much as planned, after Moody's Investors Service said it might cut the company's credit rating to junk.

Black Blade: Enronitis! This company actually made a profit, but now US companies will be under a microscope since Enron, and this company had the misfortune of having Arthur Andersen as auditors. Oops! The stock market will be a very dangerous hunting ground for a while. Meanwhile � look at Gold! Just had hit $318.00/oz!!!

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 19:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76181)

Gold Surpasses $318.00/oz.

Look at that! Gold is moving higher on a weakening US Dollar as foriehn cash is going home to papa!

slingshot

(05/21/2002; 19:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 76182)

Black Blade

Gold $318.00On the cover of the Rolling Stone!
Slingshot------------------------<>

YGM

(05/21/2002; 19:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76183)

Golden Bear...Merrill Lynch....

http://www.reuters.com/quote.jhtml?ticker=MER.N&qtype=sym&qcat=newsA good example of Sheeple Power and why "not to feel sorry for them" Merrill pays 100 Mil fine for being crooked and the sheep trade 13 million shares of the crap (far too much volume for market making) and it gains 1% in value. It actually traded some volume at $45.50 and closed about $43.85......LOL & No Pity for FOOLS! We shall watch the "Comedy of Errors" from the Castle and gloat a wee bit, or at least I'll gloat.....YGM.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 19:14:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76184)

More Late Fees Paid

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/21/pf/banking/cardfees/index.htmRevenue more than quadruples as 58 percent of cardholders get hit, study says.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Credit card holders are paying more in late fees to banks than ever, according to a survey by an online publisher specializing in payment cards. Since 1996, late fee revenue generated to bank credit card issuers has soared to $7.3 billion from $1.7 billion annually, Cardweb.com found. In an informal online poll conducted in early May, 58.3 percent of consumers said they have been hit with a late fee during the past year.

Since the first of this year, average late fees have jumped more than 5 percent, to $29.84 from $28.29, as several major issuers have boosted late fees this year to $35 from $29. Since 1996, late fees have more than doubled from an average of $13.28, CardWeb.com said. More consumers are getting snared by late fees as due dates are being moved up. The average grace period has been reduced to 21.2 days, down from 29.7 days in 1990. And the number of days a credit card company may allow your payment to be past due before assessing a late fee has "evaporated totally," said Robert McKinley, CEO of CardWeb.com.

Black Blade: I have tried to drill this point home for a long time. Consumers are tapped out and many are living on plastic. Many are putting their homes at risk and borrowing cash. Don't count on the consumer to keep spending and keep this economy afloat. The retail sector is sketchy with generally declining earnings. Also note that consumers and corporations are filing for bankruptcy at record rates. It is getting very ugly in spite of the BLS massaged data. Remember � bankers are crooks and they exist to steal from you and me.

nickel62

(05/21/2002; 19:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76185)

R Powell

Please continue to illuminate the derivative situation that you were referring to in Mr. Sinclair's work. I am one of those who gets confused as the situation shifts and am not sure who to listen to as they explain how these things work. Thanks for your help.

mikal

(05/21/2002; 19:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76186)

"Sour Grapes"-Resentment after dissappointment

Three such posts tonight and counting. On the wrong side of the trade and no place to turn. God, guts and gold, get you some.

Canuck

(05/21/2002; 19:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76188)

@ Sierra Madre

Regarding your post to cananami.

During the first few weeks of the Afgani 'campaign', and I'm not saying I would have done it this way, what do you think would have happened if the US had dropped a small nuke, say enough to evaporate 10 square miles?

Let's suppose it leveled a couple mountains killing no one, except maybe a couple cave dwelling 'barbarians'. Do you think it would have set a precedent or conversely shocked the world into a severe crisis?

Only imagining.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 19:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76189)

Protests sweep Argentina

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1999000/1999286.stm
Argentina has been rocked by protests for months

Snippit:

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets across Argentina demanding food, jobs and a change in the government's economic policies. Poor and unemployed Argentines demanded the free distribution of food and medicines to people who can no longer afford them and government action against rising unemployment. The protests - just days before a planned general strike called by the country's main trade union - came as the unemployment rate hit 20% and the Argentine peso continued to decline against the dollar.

Black Blade: Can't happen here? It already has once (1929). Then Americans traded freedom for security. Today Americans are of a different mindset and are more likely to emulate the Argentine. You thought that the Rodney King riots were bad? You ain't seen nothing yet. 9-11 taught us that anyone is vulnerable at any time. As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, stash enough cash to meet several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/21/2002; 20:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76190)

IT'S MY PROBLEM, NOT THE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S!

All my settlement statements from all my brokers are/have been stamped, "UNSOLICITED". INDIANA'S ATTORNEY GENERAL cannot help me, hell, we're in special session in the legislature, as we are OUT OF THE MONEY! MERRILL LYNCH: YOU WON'T HAVE HOOSIER GOLDBUG TO KICK AROUND ANY MORE, AS I TRANSFERRED ALL MY MONEY INTO "CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA". Don't cry for me fellow goldbugs as I have risen from the sewage (bad choice per BUFFETT LIETENANT)! U.S.,keep your dollars, confiscation of my gold is not an option for you!!!

sector

(05/21/2002; 20:12:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76191)

@R Powell - About the Gold Derivative Paper Contracts

If they were only paper... then Newmont would have already closed their hedges with a paper loan....and Barrick would not have received a margin call for 7 million ounces of gold last week�they would have simply "Borrowed" some fiat from the Fed friends.

The gold loans of JPM, which constitute their derivative book, must be repaid with metal. They cannot just "Evaporate" that obligation with fiat paper. The world of metal derivatives is far more complex than the COMEX rules for speculators as Barrick and Newmont are learning. A contract loan is a contract loan. If Ashanti's dreadful hedgebook could be 'Evaporated" with fiat it certainly would have been long ago. Goldman Sachs would have "Securitized" that "Paper" obligation in a flash. But GS can't because they [Ashanti must deliver metal into their hedge book]. They can't just start the printing presses. The gold has been sold forward... one cannot simply close these metal loan agreements with paper.

Anatal Fetke at LeMetropolecafe.com and the other board has a superb summary on hedging derivatives risks [Barrick's e.g., book goes underwater another $21 million for each pog dollar rise] if you are interested.

Golden Bear

(05/21/2002; 20:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76192)

YGM (msg#: 76183)

Greetings YGM,

I know, they're fools, but having been one, and it taking 8 years of pain and toil to recover from, I guess you could say that I'm feeling a little compassion at the moment.

We all learn our lessons, some sooner than others I suppose...

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 20:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76193)

Harmony strike descends into violence

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020520211633699P2362662&set_id=60
Snippit:

Johannesburg - Tensions between Harmony Gold Mining and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) worsened yesterday when violence erupted at Harmony's Kalgold operations in the North West. Two miners and one security guard were being treated for serious injuries in a local hospital after the company's security personnel apparently attempted to disperse striking workers using rubber bullets and teargas.

Black Blade: Good news. Less Gold coming to market in the face of a growing supply deficit.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 20:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76194)

Many questions, many answers, bedevil gold miners

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=990236
Snippit:

To hedge or not to hedge; to explore or to acquire; to consolidate or, perchance, to diversify. "The world is divided into three camps: Theological hedger, theological anti-hedger, and a third camp into which I firmly place my own company," AngloGold President Bobby Godsell told a round-table panel that wrapped up the four-day symposium attended by 700 participants.

HEDGING IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

"There's a lot of things that Randall and I agree on but there is one thing on which we totally disagree and that is hedging," said Pierre Lassonde, president of Denver-based Newmont, the world's top producer. "From a shareholder's point of view, we believe 'Why would you want to buy a gold stock if you don't get the full benefit of a rising gold price?'" Lassonde said. "Our shareholders are telling us they want to see full benefit of rising gold price," he said.

Black Blade: The question of hedging is more important to investors now than ever as Mega-Hedgers suffer declining profits and watch their hedge books go under water. As the scramble to buy Gold to feed the hedge book as prices rise � this can only help push the POG higher.

Black Blade

(05/21/2002; 20:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76195)

Gold bandwagon losing riders

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B280506DB%2DBFAE%2D4714%2D8ED7%2D498E73E3D628%7D&siteid=mktw
Contrairian standpoint: Less is more

Snippit:

ANNADALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- The Contrairian foundation of a gold bull market remains as strong as ever -- gold's recent explosive rally notwithstanding. As of the market's close on Monday, for example, the average exposure to the gold market among the gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest stood at just 29.2 percent, with the remaining 70.8 percent allocated to cash. Believe it or not, this recent reading is even lower than the already low 37.5 percent at which it stood on May 2, the last time I took stock of gold newsletter sentiment. See May 2 column. Yet on Monday, gold was trading at $8 more per ounce than it was then.

Black Blade: What I have learned is that if you want to make money investing, it is usually best to run against the herd � cut against the grain. The best time to invest is when prices are low and sell when prices are high. That simple piece of advice still stands, yet when analysts, newsletter writers, the Pimps, Trolls, and Pied Pipers of Wall Street say buy � that investment is usually grossly overvalued. Forget about sell � they won't say, "sell". Of course the best time to buy is when everyone hates an investment. Gold is still hated and the obvious course of action is to buy. Don't worry � the so-called experts are always "late to the party". They get there when the punch bowl is nearly empty, the caviar is already eaten, the champagne is gone and all that is left is cheap beer (like Budweiser or Hams). We haven't even begun to see higher Gold prices! So hopefully the "experts" will continue to be opposed to Gold ownership.

sector

(05/21/2002; 21:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76196)

Nuclear War Threat Over Kashmir

May 22, 2002British News
By Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor

* Straw mission over 'very real' chance of India-Pakistan conflict

BRITAIN gave warning of the "very real and very disturbing" possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan last night as the Government prepared an emergency mission to Delhi and Islamabad.

Jack Straw is to fly to the capitals next week to try to avert "the most serious conflict in the world in terms of potential casualties and the use of nuclear weapons".

In a chilling assessment of the escalating tensions in the sub-continent, the Foreign Secretary told journalists: "The international community is watching events with mounting concern. This is a crisis the world cannot ignore."

Ministers believe the situation is now so tense that just one provocation could trigger catastrophe, and the murder of a prominent Muslim leader yesterday plunged the region even deeper into trouble. A million soldiers are assembled along the India-Pakistan border, most of them concentrated in the disputed region of Kashmir, where fresh clashes were reported yesterday.

Mr Straw's mission will be closely co-ordinated with separate efforts by the US and EU and was agreed after dire warnings this week from military intelligence.

According to senior Whitehall sources, one plausible doomsday scenario presented to ministers envisaged the two sides fighting a bloody war that would lead to the first use of atomic weapons since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

In response to a terrorist attack, Indian troops would retalitate against Pakistan. The Pakistanis, who are considered better troops, would beat off the initial offensive. But the Indians would then use their superiority in conventional forces to overwhelm the Pakistanis. In turn Islamabad would use its weapon of last resort: a nuclear device. India would survive the strike and hit back with its own atomic weapons.

Were this scenario acted out, millions would die. India is believed to have about 60 nuclear warheads compared with Pakistan's 25.

Yesterday the region remained "on a trigger". George Fernandes, the Indian Defence Minister, told troops on a frontline position in Rajasthan that India had to give a "strong reply" to last week's killing of 34 people by Islamic militants near Jammu. Pakistan responded with a blunt warning of its own. Major General Rashid Qureshi, the government spokesman said: "Any incursions into Pakistani territory or Azad (Pakistani-controlled) Kashmir will be responded to and met with full force."

In the Kashmir capital of Srinagar, gunmen killed Abdul Ghani Lone, a Muslim leader who wanted to achieve independence through peaceful means. Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, said he was saddened and angered by the killing. "This was a terrorist act designed to undermine the hopes of the Kashmiri people for free and fair elections without violence."

Mr Straw's first priority will be to ease India's anger, in the aftermath of the latest massacre, and urge the Hindu nationlist Government to exercise maximum restraint.

He will tell Pakistan that it must do more to rein in terror groups responsible for cross-border attacks into India and a wave of violence against Western targets, including the killing of French naval workers in Karachi, the murder of an American journalist and threats against British interests in Lahore.

Unlike the Middle East, however, where Britain supports the return of dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians for the creation of a Palestinian state, Mr Straw will have to tread gingerly around the issue of Kashmir's status. India has consistently refused to discuss the region's sovereignty.

On a more practical level, Mr Straw and British diplomats are expected to try to build security ties between Islamabad and Delhi that would prevent the two accidentally going to war.

During the Cold War, for instance, the White House and the Kremlin were connected by a "hotline" to allow the two superpower leaders to speak directly and avoid misunderstandings. "There are always grave dangers of what started off as a limited military action getting out of control," Mr Straw said.

His visit next week will follow a similar mission by Chris Patten, the EU's External Affairs Commissioner, and then by Richard Armitage, the US Deputy Secretary of State.

The diplomatic offensive is seen as critical before the Indian Government decides how to respond to last week's massacre."It is very important that we keep the foreign pressure on the two sides at this critical point," said a senior British diplomat. "The forces are mobilised. With a click of the finger they could go."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The phrase "Termites" has been used by the senior Indian generals to describe the Muslims.

Another day another war threat...in another theater.

sector

(05/21/2002; 21:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76197)

India steps up preparations for war

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?f=/stories/20020521/287619.html May 21, 2002

Rahul Bedi
The Daily Telegraph, with files from news services

Snippit:

India's preparations for war followed the expulsion from Delhi of the Pakistani ambassador after a raid on an Indian army camp in Kashmir last week. Pakistan has responded by calling up army reserves, retired officers and civil defence units and has emptied government hospital beds to prepare for casualties.

The Indian Defence Minister, George Fernandez, and senior generals began a two-day survey of the border region yesterday to assess troop and tank mobilization.

Pro-war sentiment is widespread in India. "We have neither economic nor diplomatic clout against Pakistan and the only instrument left is the military one," said retired Major-General Afsir Karim, a member of the National Security Council Advisory Board.

Maj.-Gen. Karim, a Muslim who fought in two of India's three wars against Pakistan, in 1965 and 1971, added: "There is no point in restricting our options indefinitely. We need to chalk out a strategy and strike at a time and place of our choosing."

The normally tense relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours intensified after last week's suicide attack by three gunmen at an army base in Kashmir in which 31 people, including 11 women and 11 children, died. India blamed the attack on a Pakistan-sponsored insurgent group fighting Kashmir's 13-year civil war. Islamabad has rejected the charge as baseless.

Trapper

(05/21/2002; 21:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76198)

Sir Hossier Goldbug

I think your post about Bush making a deal in Europe is too close to reality. These guys are trying to work out a deal on the dollar as we speak I'm sure. The dollar ain't going away! Period. The US is the engine on this whole darned planet. I think what is wanted is a slow FIXED slide in the dollar to help our export business. It will need to lowered to below competing fiats to balance things out.
I chided Belgian ( who seems to be absent of late ) about his euro's gold card...well it is time to play or fold. As I predicted Germany, who was king of the hill wants back on top, or they will pick up their marbles and go home. Why would they give up the DM, which has more gold backing it now than the euro which has less backing it. Most of all they lose control. Sure East Wannabe will join the euro, good deal for them, but the real pressure hasn't even started yet.
I still feel gold will do well in the end as other problems that the big boys can't control like, another attack, India etc. will keep the pressure to the up side. I do feel a big dip is coming and soon to shake some out and cool this rally, also the big boys need time to cover and they will get too. Oh well live small.
RJ

YGM

(05/21/2002; 22:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76199)

Trapper....

How true it is...(you said) The US is the engine on this whole darned planet......

**and the resources, both Human and Natural are it's fuel...
Maybe someday that will all change? Probably not but it will suffer setbacks and major bouts of resistance by Nations who are sick of US hedgemony and the creation of a false affluent lifestyle on the backs of 3rd world peoples....Europeans and N Americans have too long lived this life of inequality by comparison to the developing world (Impoverished) The resistance will grow generation by generation and like the tide, nothing will hold it back...
The world WILL revert back to basic tribalism mentality and hence "Isolationism".....Gotta quit here before I get too far off topic and start a rant....G'nite....YGM

Mr Gresham

(05/21/2002; 22:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76200)

"There will come a day...

...unlike any other day..."

Gandalf the White

(05/21/2002; 22:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76201)

SPOT is JUMPING tonight and SPIKE is ready to join him !!!

Is Aragorn III's "Lightning in the Night" nearing center stage ? Hang on to your hats ! This "SHOW" is getting interesting.
<;-)

Buena Fe

(05/21/2002; 22:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76202)

speculation on trends

"The One" has incited "the ten" to trash "the banana" et al! (an act of mercy)

The commerce "standards" (au/ag) shall be understood afresh, for a time.

Then freedom will suffer a short while until the eighth and final system (fiat) has met its end. (small price to pay for lasting equity).

Volatility shall previal, fear shall melt hearts of steel.

Waverider

(05/21/2002; 23:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76203)

US Dollar

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=15&t=l&a=2Whoooaaa....the dollar's tanking tonight!

(05/21/2002; 23:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76204)

SPOT USD AXINDEX DROPS TO 97.78 AT 1:15 AM EDT 5-22-02

The U.S. Dollar as measured by the AXINDEX dropped to a new

current low of 97.78 mg of gold at 1:15 AM EDT this morning

May 22, 2002.

(05/21/2002; 23:42:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76205)

U.S. TREASURY/ALL U.S. CITIZENS SHOULD BUY GOLD NOW

Laura Clancy and Steward Baily wrote in Mining Web on

5-21-02 that:

"Newswire SAPA, said

according to Robert Pringle, head of public policy at the
World Gold

Council said, recent statistics indicated that some central
banks had

been buying gold, a bullish indicator for the metal.

Alan Williamson, an analyst at HSBC in London who was quoted
in the same

report, said the gold rise was due to "a number of reasons,
mainly the

dollar continuing to weaken". The dollar, the alternative
currency

refuge in times of crisis, "has reached an eight-month low
against the

Swiss franc, seven-month low against the euro and a
five-month low

against the yen," added Williamson. "

AX:

The U.S. Treasury as well as all private U.S. citizens

should take the opportunity now, while the gold value of the

U.S. Dollar is still a relatively high 97.78 milligrams

( remember early in 1980 the gold value of one U.S. Dollar
was less than 40 mg of gold)

to buy as much gold as they can. The central banks
mentioned in the above article are taking advantage of this

time to do so.

Since the USD is the world reserve currency and reference

standard for all other currencies the U.S. Treasury can

never have too much gold. It should accumulate over the

short and long term as much as it can.

Private U.S. citizens should do likewise for their own

safety and security particularly in these troubled times.

In ways all of us who follow the news know, the world
situation looks in many ways considerably

bleaker than it did in 1980.

AX

Spartacus

(05/22/2002; 00:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76206)

US chain store sales dip

http://www.reuters.com/markets_news_article.jhtml?storyID=988798&marketID=1&ric=
NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - Cool temperatures and inclement weather kept U.S. consumers away from retail chain stores and put a dent in sales last week, Instinet Research said on Tuesday.

The Redbook Retail Sales Average slipped 0.3 percent in the two weeks ended May 18 compared with the same period last month. Sales compared with the same week last year rose 2.1 percent.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 00:38:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76207)

USD Weakening, Gold Gaining, and Petroleum Higher

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD is falling against the toilet currencies of the world (except the Yen) and Gold is rising in response. The Japanese are intervening to weaken the Yen, however, the US Dollar must pull back to compete against foriegn goods and to help out US exporters. Also, the foreigners are pulling cash out of US investments further weakening the US Dollar. Gold is bouncing all around $318.00/oz tonight and could possibly pop over $320.00/oz. as the USD approaches 112.

NY Crude is moving higher on renewed Middle East concerns, threats of terrorism on US shores, and the breakout of warfare along the Paki-Indian border. I haven't checked yet, but today's oil inventory report came out this afternoon. New reports indicate that the NG storage could drop very fast later this year due to the sharp drop off of exploration and production, the added supply necessary for working gas in new storage facilities, and nearly 200 new natural gas-fired power generation facilities coming online (with 1,300 additional new power plants needed by 2010).

- Black Blade

Spartacus

(05/22/2002; 00:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76208)

Olson Says Recession Raises Concerns About Bank Loans

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APOpy6xZTT2xzb24g&ao=22806805
Palm Beach, Florida, May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials are concerned the recent recession will lead to a increasing number of bad bank loans and expose derivative problems on bank balance sheets, said Fed Governor Mark Olson.
-----
Banks have increasingly used more complex methods of reducing risk in the last decade that require increased attention by management and regulators. Fed bank regulators have found some banks incorrectly reported the use of financial derivatives used to offset the risk of some banking transactions, Olson said.

``Though the Federal Reserve has not noticed widespread abuse in this area, we have uncovered instances in which the financial reporting has not reflected the substance of the transaction, and we have asked that it be corrected,'' Olson said.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 00:50:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76209)

Asian Markets Mixed

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
A lot of cash is leaving the US and flowing back into Japan. The Nikkei 225 is pushing against 12,000. More cash is being called home to Europe as well. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Operative

(05/22/2002; 01:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76210)

Harmony Gold Makes Front Page

http://www.investors.com/Harmony Gold makes front page at Investors Business Daily
Website. Times are a'changin! Check out the chart.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 01:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76211)

Gold bull run continues in Europe, eyes $325

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/05/22/rtr609718.html
Snippit:

LONDON, May 22 (Reuters) - Gold's bull market showed no sign of slackening in Europe on Wednesday, and as prices pushed up to fresh 27-month highs amid a potent cocktail of fundamental factors analysts eyed the $320.00 an ounce level.

Black Blade: The fundamentals are very strong for a run well past $325/oz. Rumors of war abound and the USD is sinking against major currencies.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 01:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76212)

World's political woes push gold to $316

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020521180150910N243183&set_id=60
Snippit:

London - Gold prices were riding high, fired by fund managers scrambling for a safe haven asset as political crises rage from the Indian-Pakistan border to the Middle East, metals analysts said yesterday. Crossfire between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, coupled with violence in the Middle East and a US warning on Sunday that another attack against it was a near certainty, have pushed gold to its highest level in more than two years.

In uncertain times, when the dollar is losing ground in currency markets and stock markets strain for credible signs of earnings growth, gold is back as a safe bet. "Investors believe gold is becoming a viable asset. "In this environment gold certainly has something going for it," said Peter Hillyard, a senior manager at London's ANZ Investment Bank.

Black Blade: It is reported that Japanese buying has picked up again pushing the POG over $318/oz. If the POG goes over $320 to $325 look for a rush to cover short positions that could carry the POG over $335/oz in short order.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 02:11:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76213)

Gold Rocket!

Gold is higher at $319.20/oz. It appears that we could see rampant short covering once we get through the $320 to $325 range. The current rally looks to have a head of steam.

The situation along the Paki-Indian border is intensifying with heavy fighting. These two nuclear powers could easily "let the birds fly" as one Pakistani general put it yesterday. If war does escalate it would not be surprising to see China get involved as they are allied to Pakistan and have had border tensions with India in the past. Anything seems possible these days.

Meanwhile the USD is sinking against major currencies in a race to have the weaker currency.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 02:44:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76214)

BOJ seen intervening in forex market - traders

TOKYO, May 22 (Reuters) - The dollar rose more than one yen in mid-afternoon Tokyo trading on talk that the Bank of Japan might have intervened to prop up the dollar against the yen, traders said. The dollar earlier fell to a 5-½ month low of 123.50 yen but shot up to 124.90 at around 0535 GMT following the talk. Some dealers said the BOJ came into the market when the dollar was at around 123.85 yen.

Black Blade: This was expected and still Japanese buying accelerated tonight in Japan. Meanwhile the USD is falling against most other currencies. Japan is desperate to stimulate their economy as they wallow in a deep depression and are not likely to emerge for several years. Also, the insolvent Japanese banking sector is on the verge of collapse. For these reasons the Japanese government had no choice but to devalue the Yen which is why Gold buying is picking up again in Japan. The writing is on the wall for the Japanese. They look to Argentina and they see their future. Meanwhile the other major world currncies are strengthening against the US Dollar.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 02:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76215)

Moody's warns on U.S. debt as Congress stalls

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=991253
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - The United States' gilt-edged debt rating could go on review for possible downgrade if a political deadlock in Congress delays U.S. debt payments, ratings agency Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. The last time ratings agencies warned of mounting risk of default on U.S. public debt was during the 1996 budget crisis. Even as the U.S. budget returns to deficits, Congress has refused to allow the government to borrow more money. The higher debt ceiling requested by U.S. President George W. Bush's administration has been held hostage to wrangling between Democrats and Republicans in the run-up to November's closely-contested congressional elections.

Black Blade: Japanese debt has already been downgraded to just above "junk". Now the US may follow in Japan's footsteps. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 02:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76216)

Yen Plunges After Shiokawa Indicates Japan Sold Its Currency

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOs6wxW_WWVuIFBs
Snippit:

Tokyo, May 22 (Bloomberg) -- The yen plunged as Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa indicated Japan sold its currency, moving to stem a three-month, 7.4 percent rally versus the dollar that may erode earnings for exporters and prolong a recession.

Black Blade: No surprise here. One can imagine the Japanese people who see the value of their savings erode as they search for some place to put their devaluing savings � anywhere like stocks, hard assets, even (gulp) Gold.

Belgian

(05/22/2002; 03:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76217)

Trapper # 76198

...Belgian, who seems to be absent of late .... ???
Euro's Gold card : Who is going to tell EMU, when and how to play this card or any other card ...? Is there a new *axis of good* from the US to Germany ? Export more *war* (your-real pressure) to the East "Wannabe" ? Trapper, there is a strong analogy in your kind of vieuwing the ongoing developments, with your US man in London : James Rubin !

Humbly me : The US$ as a currency AND the US$ economy are *TRAPPED* and rush into a gigantic (euro/oil) minefield ! Good luck ! President Bush will be welcomed with a friendly smile. His purposely polarization hysteria will not find a fertile feeding ground here in Euroland. The euro/dollar competition will have its course, with minimal compromise and a lot of pragmatism. All this on Euroland terms.
Sorry, but the dollar has finally come to terms with its past mismanagement and if *wars(s)* (military-economical)are needed for transition...so **unfortunately** be it.

Sorry for the rather unpleasant tone of my respons.

Zenidea

(05/22/2002; 04:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76218)

jobs in Aussie.

Its good to see the the confetti/gold ratio on the up and up. Food on the table in the making for many families :).

Hipplebeck

(05/22/2002; 04:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76219)

Spartacus (5/22/02; 00:40:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 76208)

Well, well, well!! How many banks setting up their own special purpose entities to hide bad loans?

Spartacus

(05/22/2002; 04:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76220)

Gold

http://europe.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/05/22/aust.gold.biz/index.html
SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- Gold stocks are returning to investors' portfolios as the precious metal heads for $325 an ounce, according to leading gold analyst Keith Goode.
----
He said the euro was now establishing itself as an alternative paper currency to the dollar. Black market money that previously flowed exclusively to the U.S. currency now had a second choice.

He said gold usually moved on seasonal factors, with a rise in June at the time of the Italian jewelry fairs and again in August-September as Europe's summer business lull came to an end.

"Now is usually a weak period for gold, so its price is excellent," Goode said.

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2002; 04:51:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76221)

(No Subject)

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html"Gold will only have to be repriced once, that will be more than enough"!

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2002; 04:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76222)

Suicide bombers in US

I hear that JPM and ABX may strap on belts full of explosive derivatives and sneak into Comex and LBMA!

(Hey -- aren't they just carrying out the "mission" they were trained for?)

(Sorry for my "grim" attempt at humor -- couldn't resist...)

The Invisible Hand

(05/22/2002; 05:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76223)

We'll have a party today!

Where I'm writing it's 7pm on Wednesday and the Kitco chart brings tears to my eyes.
Let's have a party.
Can FOA open the dance?
And will TownCrier please play "We are the Champions!"?
Can Aristotle demonstrate again that existence exists and that rationality cannot be voted away?
And can all the heroes I forget, please continue to teach.(ideas result in actions and actions result in changes - do I hear Bill M. in the back?)
Daghang salamat (thank you very much) and maayon gabie (good evening, sorry that's my time here in Southern Philippines).

The Invisible Hand

(05/22/2002; 05:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76224)

Oops, I forgot StradMaster

Yes, Strad, you can also play today.

nickel62

(05/22/2002; 05:52:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76225)

Same old same old...bs Spitzer is not even being taken seriously by Bloomberg which is partially owned by Merrill Lynch..right back to the way they were doing it before with a new bunch of politicans who have had their palms greased!

05/22 00:19
Merrill-Spitzer Pact Won't Change Analysts' Role in Banking
By Tom Cahill and Emma Moody

New York, May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Leonard Teitelbaum was one reason Interstate Bakeries Corp. was happy to have Merrill Lynch & Co. help sell about $176 million of stock earlier this month.

Five days after the sale by shareholder Nestle SA, Merrill analyst Teitelbaum finished his first report on the maker of Hostess Twinkies and Wonder Bread, recommending investors buy the stock. ``We look at it as a positive any time an analyst would pick up and take a look at the company and follow us,'' said Chief Financial Officer Frank Coffey.

The role Wall Street analysts play in the investment banking business is at the center of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation into conflicts of interest in research. Merrill's $100 million settlement with Spitzer yesterday will likely prompt securities firms to disclose more about such relationships than ever before. It won't reduce analysts' involvement in winning and retaining clients, investors said.

``I'm cynical,'' said Tim Leach, who oversees $135 billion as chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Client Services in San Francisco. ``I don't think this means there's going to be some reengineering of the industry.''

As part of the agreement with Spitzer, Merrill will create a panel to review stock rating changes and appoint someone to ensure the biggest securities firm by capital lives up to the agreement for one year. The settlement stops short of barring analysts from accompanying bankers when they solicit business from potential clients.

Interstate Bakeries' experience is typical. Coffey and Nestle recognized the benefit of having a Merrill analyst explain to its 14,000-broker sales force the merits of the Kansas City, Missouri- based company.

``They were involved in getting their arms around the business so they could help their sales force have an opinion about our fundamentals and the future operations of our business,'' the CFO said.

Longstanding Relationship

Merrill says analysts such as Teitelbaum give investors an honest appraisal of companies, even when the companies are banking clients.

``We believe strongly in the integrity of our analysts,'' Stanley O'Neal, Merrill's president, said at a news conference yesterday. Teitelbaum didn't return a call for comment.

Interstate Bakeries and Nestle also picked Credit Suisse First Boston, whose food analyst David Nelson initiated coverage last week with a ``buy'' recommendation. Nelson was ranked the No. 2 food analyst last year by money managers surveyed by Institutional Investor magazine.

The New York probe shone a light on a longstanding relationship that attracted little concern until benchmark stock indexes collapsed from their highs in March 2000, causing billions of dollars of losses in stocks that analysts had touted. Enron Corp., WorldCom Inc. and Tyco International Ltd. alone caused about $145 billion of investor losses in the past year.

Spitzer, who a month ago was invoking the state's Martin Act that would have allowed him to bring criminal charges against Merrill, had talked about the firm's setting up a restitution fund to pay investors who lost money, paying a fine and separating investment banking and research. Of these, only the fine survived.

``Congratulations, Mr. Spitzer,'' said Tom Brown, chief executive of hedge fund Second Curve Capital LLC, who was fired as an analyst at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc. in 1998 because he was too critical of banking clients. ``You've gotten Merrill to settle, and to agree to some important changes, but you were thrown a fat, juicy pitch -- and you only hit a squib single.''

Throughout the negotiations, Spitzer insisted he wouldn't settle with Merrill without changing how analysts are paid, contending there is a conflict when analysts are paid to help arrange an initial public offering or other transaction.

While Spitzer said analysts will no longer be paid for banking, David Komansky, chairman and chief executive of Merrill, said their total compensation won't change.

Incentive

Merrill has been luring analysts even as it cut 15,000 jobs in the past 15 months amid the biggest slump in investment banking in more than a decade.

The firm last week poached Bear Stearns Cos. analyst John Inch, who covers Tyco International Inc., which is selling shares in its CIT finance unit. Merrill in March hired Carol Warner Wilke, last year's top-ranked analyst for household products and cosmetics, from Credit Suisse First Boston.

Merrill, which netted fees of more than $2 million from the Interstate Bakeries sale, isn't alone in using research to aid banking.

``Research does a lot of really good things for investment banking,'' said Robert Steel, a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. who helps oversee equities, fixed-income, currency and commodities. ``Sometimes we get the initial public offering because analysts get to the company first, sometimes we turn business down because analysts tell us it's not a good company.''

Analysts were overly positive on stocks because banking business was at stake, Spitzer and others said.

Of the 114,000 published recommendations on U.S. stocks, only 3.3 percent are ``sell.'' When the Nasdaq Composite Index was three times its current level in March 2000, fewer than 2 percent of recommendations were ``sell.''

Individual investors ``didn't understand the joined-at-the- hip relationship between investment banking and analysts,'' said Wells Fargo's Leach.

Not Swayed

While Americans who bought their first shares in the bull market of the 1990s may have believed Wall Street recommendations, veterans took them with a grain of salt. Warren Buffett, whose six decades of investing have made him the world's richest man, said he's never been swayed by research.

``I've been buying stock since I was 11,'' Buffett, 71, told a gathering for the annual meeting for his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. earlier this month. ``Maybe when I was 11 or 12 I paid attention to Wall Street research, but not since.''

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 06:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76226)

India's PM to Visit Kashmir Border

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54382-2002May22.html
Snippit:

KUPWARA, India �� India's prime minister visited soldiers on the tense Kashmir frontier Wednesday, telling them to prepare for a "decisive battle" against Pakistan-supported Islamic insurgents. Cross-border shelling has killed dozens and reignited fears of war between the nuclear-armed rivals.

Black Blade: Prepare for a "decisive battle" between to nuclear powers? Hmmm�

Also, the fighting is intensifying and a well known Muslim leader seeking peace with India was assassinated. This is getting outta hand.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 06:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76227)

Strange Days

On the wire is news that a US submarine has been abandoned off the California coast and is floundering after catching fire.

The Brooklyn Bridge was shutdown this morning after concerns over possible terrorist activity.

Pakistan-India war intensifies

Tensions increase in the Middle east

Market futures are sharply lower

US Dollar weakens

Attempts to weaken Yen yeild a miserable 0.1 Yen gain

Gold now starts to sink a bit lower once trading begins in NY � Hmmm� Apparently marching orders have been given to stop Gold's advance.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 06:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76228)

Gold is heading for $325 an ounce, according to one gold expert

http://asia.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/05/22/aust.gold.biz/index.html
Snippit:

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- Gold stocks are returning to investors' portfolios as the precious metal heads for $325 an ounce, according to leading gold analyst Keith Goode. Gold has not been in the $320-plus range since October 1999. Driving the gains in the gold price is the U.S. dollar's weakness and a reinforcement of gold's role as a safe haven in troubled times, Goode told CNN Wednesday.

Black Blade: Nice picture of Gold Bar at the link. BTW, SJ Kaplan is still "Significantly Bearish" on Gold. Hmmm�

There is a report floating around that the Treasury has plans for time restricted currency for offshore. This currency may be slightly shaded in various colors that will become worthless over time. This scheme is supposedly for fighting terrorism, drugs, and tax avoidance. This could trigger a run into Gold as the currency of choice for the "underground" economy along with diamonds, gemstones, platinum, etc.). Obviously the anonymous nature of Gold will help the POG as many will flee to safe havens. "Interesting Times"

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2002; 07:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76229)

Y'all buy those dips, now!

Whoever thought they'd be thinkin' that at 318 or thereabouts! "I dunno, gettin' a little pricey for me."

Anybody else have a sense of the 320-350 range as "last chance to get on the train"?

(Thinking of which, anyone else ever jump on -- or off -- a train, at various speeds? Once each for me, and that's enough to keep me from trying it in other areas of life. Now, I'd rather just be at the station an hour early...)

Siochain

(05/22/2002; 07:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76230)

G'Morning

I guess I'll have to go on more trips....gold seems to take off....was it ever nice to check & see at the end of the day how much change had happened (actually I thought they had it wrong at first and ask for repeat,,,,then a big whoop from me!!)...I'm taking some gold stock profits and adding more to physical

Also...I was so busy I couldn't tune into news....do you know how relaxing it is not to hear every few minutes another Administration person putting out a threat

B.B. I am adding to my preps!

YGM

(05/22/2002; 07:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76231)

Excerpt from my Daily Reckoning E-Mail

32 to 1...Mind Boggling........Dow 316, Gold 10,000........OK! Sounds Right!And then, there's the dollar!

In January-February 2001 foreign investors bought about
$100 billion of U.S. dollar assets. In the most recent
period, foreign buying declined to just $26.7 billion.
It doesn't take a genius to see why that trend might
continue. U.S. stocks are down so far this year - for
the 3rd year in a row. European and Asian stocks are
cheaper than their U.S. rivals...their stocks are rising
and so are their currencies. From a foreigner's point of
view, U.S. assets represent risk without much reward.

"I have no doubt that the demise of the U.S. Dollar,
which seems to be inevitable," writes Alf Field, "will
unleash a bull market in gold bullion that even the most
avid gold bull cannot now imagine. This is not something
that we can contemplate with any degree of comfort
because the world that we now know will have changed
beyond recognition."

Here at the Daily Reckoning, we're less confident. We
try never to leave the house without our doubts and an
umbrella. You just never know. And we're getting a
little worried about all the attention gold is
attracting. Great bull markets tend to begin when no one
is looking.

Still, we were encouraged by a headline in the NY TIMES:
"Despite Year of Upheavals, Economic Optimism High." The
TIMES article reassures us that the mass of investing
yahoos is still long the dollar and long the stock
market. Which means that, so far, it's only the smart
money behind the price of gold. When the yahoos and
patsies enter the gold market - oh la la!

For reference, we remind you, dear reader, that a single
ounce of gold was priced at about the same level as the
DJIA back in 1980. Now, it takes 32 of them to equal the
Dow. We do not claim to be able to see clearly into the
future. Heck, we're not even sure we see the present
clearly.

But if you wanted a guess about what might turn out to
be the Trade of the Decade...this might be it: sell the
Dow/buy gold. Gold might not go to 10,000. The Dow might
not go to 316. But that the two will somehow belly up
towards one another seems a good bet.

Gandalf the White

(05/22/2002; 07:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76232)

Advance WARNING to all LURKERS and SilverHearts !!!

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlThe Invisible Hand (5/22/02; 05:11:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 76223) We'll have a party!! <;-)
---
YES, Sir Invisible Hand, a new POG Guessing Contest will begin shortly!! This Advance WARNING is to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" and enter the CONTEST by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK !!! Note to Y'ALL (Thanks Mr. G) SilverHearts to get ready, as the "booty" from the Vaults of USAGOLD this time is -- NOT ONE, NOT TWO, BUT THREE One Ounce Silver Eagles !!!! (ESPECIALLY choosen in honor of you, Sir Rich.)
"COMEON IN" and get ready to POST, as the contest will begin right after the forthcoming "M Day"!!!
<;-)

YGM

(05/22/2002; 07:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76233)

Todays Game Plan for Gold Accumulators....(Hedge Buybacks too)

Let the shorts go to town & make market for you.....How low will she go?Hold back for the first few hrs of trade and let the buying frenzy begin....Up another $3.00 today at close? Quite a possibility.....Maybe more! Lets see where the most power lies today....My bets on the demand side......YGM

"GO GATA & GO PHYSICAL"

Gandalf the White

(05/22/2002; 08:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76234)

WOWSERS - Find the TRUMPETS - An UPDATE from the Castle

Gandalf: Let's start the contest today and offer a Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the winner. Also a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf each to the
runners-up. Thanks, MK
==
So HERE we GO !! A NEW POG Guessing Contest !!!
Someone find the TRUMPETERS !!!
Get ready for the instructions.
==
<;-)

Gene

(05/22/2002; 08:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76235)

Short Covering

I thought that, at these prices, both the silver & gold shorts would be covering big time and prices would take off. Can someone explain ?

YGM

(05/22/2002; 08:42:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76236)

Gene...

Short Covering...Small positions probably were covered by over nite surge...
Those who are in over their heads ie: GS, Deutzbank, JPMC etc. will fight this battle til the end, as they would drive Gold up hundreds of dollars all by themselves if they covered their short positions...Damned if they do and Damned if they don't.....Defaults will be in order at some point and shareholders will eat dirt, anal-ysts will eat crow.....YGM.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 08:57:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76237)

JPM predicts $330. top and then retest $305.

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BC1003BB26F?OpenDocumentSure you gotta have some anal-yst to help in house shorters drive the price down...Check out the responses to the story at page bottom....It never used to be like this, months ago there were few responses to these BS stories. Now they're getting an earful at every turn....Gold awareness and a new era of info & info seekers has dawned....Just watch the #'s turning out for this next contest....far and away different from years ago.....YGM.

sector

(05/22/2002; 09:08:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76238)

YAHOO's Abandonment of Australian and Canadian Gold indices

http://www.sharelynx.netNick Laird's always superb gold and silver site.
He has replaced the YAHOO omission with his own data and charts.

Australian Gold Producers Index & Australian Gold Explorers Index
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/OZGOLD.htm

Canadian Gold Index
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CANGOLD.htm

enjoy.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 09:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76239)

Time to Take Profits on Gold?.........Gold Bubble?

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BC00064327B?OpenDocumentHa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha .......Read the commentary at the bottom of this crap anal-ysis, it will have you in stitches....YGM.

goldquest

(05/22/2002; 10:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76240)

YGM

Yep, the Gold bubble will burst! About 2012! With the dollar swirling around the drain, gold has a long upward run ahead. Thanks for the link! It was good for a laugh. All of these so-called gold experts are crawling out of the woodwork, it seems!

TownCrier

(05/22/2002; 10:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76241)

HEADLINE: Runaway Gold Sets New Safe-Haven High in Early NY

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news≠ws_id=reu-n22372476&feed=reu&date=20020522&cat=USMARKETNEW YORK, May 22 (Reuters) - COMEX gold set a new high for the year early Wednesday near $320 an ounce on jitters about the hair-trigger tensions between India and Pakistan and the threat of another terror attack on New York landmarks.

Gold has turned from a dog into the darling of the investment world in 2002, using the bullish groundwork laid in last year's U.S. recession, interest rate cuts, and the Sept. 11 terror attacks to turn the corner on two-decade bear market, according to analysts.

"With the stock markets in the USA continuing their vicious declines, with the vice-president of the USA warning its populace of imminent terrorist activities, with continuing fears in regards to the escalation of violence in both the Middle East and India/Pakistan, and the dollar somewhat in question, the gold market remains amazingly strong," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, wrote in a client report Wednesday.

In the sixth straight day of safe-haven buying, June gold at 0914 EDT was up $1.70....
-------------

Bottom line: The tooth-fairy will not bring you gold. This is something that only YOU can do for yourself. But don't despair at the task, Centennial is here to offer friendly help and guidance. TOLL FREE 800-869-5115

R.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 10:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76242)

Randy....Post Removal....

Merrill UK Gold Fund Post....(Yesterday)Are we getting a little touchy around here with what we post? The Merrill UK Gold Fund thing was posted for a purpose...to show the duplicity of M. L. They bash Gold in the USA and have no fund for the hometeam (USA) in Gold but they try to capitalize on Gold followers in UK...Possibly as their masters reside in the US & they tow the line for the Cabal...It was in no way advertising for ML nor would any reader of this illustrious board consider giving them one red cent...Excuse me if I'm touchy here but we all know how posts dissapear by Censorship at GE...Try posting a comment by Reg Howe over there...A continuing discussion on Gold only has so many avenues to persue before it's just repitition and... "I think all should realize the double dealing going on in the Gold Markets by such as ML, GS, JPMC & others"...They bash & dump on Gold steady & meanwhile have a hidden adgenda...No?...Thanks for listening anyways...If the post was/is a no-no for reasons beyond my comprehension then I'll try to be more careful in future...
I went to retrieve that post for someone who thought it pertinent info and now have to web search again, that's all...YGM

TownCrier

(05/22/2002; 10:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76243)

Picking up a sense of momentum, urgency

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_currency&s=APOu7YhTUQnJpdGlzLondon, May 22 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound fell to a 14-month low against the euro after U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair repeated his commitment to adopting the currency shared by 12 European countries.

...Speculation about adopting the euro tends to weaken the pound because U.K. competitiveness would be hurt if the country began to use the common currency at the current exchange rate....

``The key driver is the euro-entry story -- at the moment the market seems convinced that the political impetus toward holding a referendum is going well ahead,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist at UBS Warburg in London.

Blair, in a speech ...said that if economic conditions for adopting the euro were met, ``the British people will make a pragmatic, hard-headed assessment,'' unmoved by political and sentimental attachments to the pound.

------(see URL for more)-------

Bottom line: As the euro system grows, the dollar loses international relevance. Very naturally, a trickle through the earthen levee soon grows to flood.

R.

The Invisible Hand

(05/22/2002; 10:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76244)

Strange days cont.

Black Blade (5/22/02; 06:31:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 76227)
Strange Days
cont. by yours truly

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2002000/2002868.stm
A US senate committee has voted to subpoena documents on the White House's links with bankrupt energy giant Enron.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_2002000/2002902.stm
A huge haul of assault weapons has been stolen from a Belgian army depot, military officials have confirmed.
More than 100 weapons were stolen, most of them assault rifles. The Belgian news agency Belga, quoting police officials, put the haul at more than 140 assault rifles and more than a dozen pistols.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2002000/2002691.stm
Gold price soars on war fears

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/22/2002; 10:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76245)

Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

sstins

(05/22/2002; 11:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76246)

YGM fanishing posts

hear! hear!

Removing posts sometimes appears to be done just because he or she has the ability to. This runs contrary to the fostering of objective reasoning with which separates this wonderful venue from other drivel laden sites.

$320 would be fun to say at the close of today.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 11:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76247)

TC.....

Thanks for the response Email.....Seeing as I was out in the open with criticism I will be open about my understanding of your explanation re ML post.
I do see your perspective and I (in retrospect) could have made my point about the duplicity of ML & Gold stance in another way just as effectively....Onward.....YGM

YGM

(05/22/2002; 11:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76248)

How High can Gold Go? USA Gold Live News....

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlPositive for next 18 months....OK...that's better than most anal-lysts take on things....

Aristotle

(05/22/2002; 12:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76249)

Please bear with me!!! Mornings I just drrraaagg along.

There was a time when I used to enjoy a cup or two of imported coffee with breakfast each morning. The beans would be shipped to me directly from a distributor in Istanbul. I'll tell ya, those were the good ol' days!

I would hand grind my daily ration, and as the beans would crack under the turning burr the rich aroma alone would already begin to work its magic, bringing pep into my day. Sometimes, I'd take my cup outdoors to savor the final product of my efforts, comfortably basking upon my patio furniture (of which you've already heard a thing or two.)

My life couldn't have been better, and this love of coffee I shared one day in a conversation with a friend of mine, a stock broker.

He smiled and nodded approvingly upon hearing the details of my morning ritual, commenting that my passion for coffee must run deep indeed to fuel my industrious routine. I assured him that the effort of preparation enhanced the final satisfaction of consumption, and that the building anticipation of of the inevitable consumption also imparted a particular joy to the preparation. Double benefits.

He laughed, confessing that he just drives through Starbucks on his way to work.

We talked a bit more in our easy manner, and before all was said and done he had convinced me of the merits of Starbucks Corporation. "Someone with your level of interest in coffee..." he said to me, musing, "...you just can't go wrong with Starbucks." I'd never been to a Starbucks (can you believe it???) but so great was his enthusiasm and insistence that I consented to buy no small number of shares -- Starbucks Corp [SBUX].

Sitting here now in my afternoon haze and looking back, boy was I stupid! Being somehow temporarily confused into thinking that SBUX would now satisfy all my coffee needs, I foolishly allowed my inventory of Turkish coffee to dwindle and run out.

It's probably been two months since I last had those familiar peppy benefits of my coffee to help lift me out of the depths of the darkest morning hours. These days it seems like life itself just drrraaaggs...

If you haven't already figured it out for yourself, let me be the first one to tell you at my own expense. Ownership (use) of company stock IN NO WAY serves as a satisfactory substitute for the benefits of ownership/use of their Products.

Laugh if you must, but only a fool would obtain SBUX to the complete exclusion of any real Coffee Beans. It would be akin to thinking that "Mornings don't happen." Well, OF COURSE �mornings' happen! They happen every day!! And when they do, we need COFFEE BEANS, DAMMIT! Not a certificate of SBUX!!!

I've wasted this precious space on MK's fine forum only because I want to help you draw this parallel thought:

It would be the height of foolishness to obtain shares in "GroundGold DeepMine Corp" [A.HOLE] to the complete exclusion of any Physical Gold Metal.

That investment strategy would be akin to thinking that "Argentina isn't happening," that "the Asian Contagion never happened," that "LTCM, Enron and bankruptcy of pension plans don't happen," or that "911 cannot, will not happen!" It happens, folks. It happens somewhere in this wide world every day. Every morning, somebody somewhere loses everything but the shirt on their back.

Gold is a mighty fine shirt to wear. An armor of wealth against the perils of the world that we arise to face every morning.

Fools selling each other on the "benefits" of SBUX and A.HOLE instead of their products . . . Sheeeeeeeeesh! Gimme a break!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Siochain

(05/22/2002; 12:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76250)

Another Suicide bombing

South of Tel Aviv....many injured...a place where many elderly apparently go.

Gandalf the White

(05/22/2002; 12:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76251)

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTESTHear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MDT) (Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract SETTLEMENT Price on Friday, May 31, 2002
---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$543.2$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany the "Guess".
===
Good Luck All !
COME ON you Lurkers, Jump IN!!!
<;-)

Gimli_

(05/22/2002; 12:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76252)

Looks like new contest is already over. ;-))))))

"5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, APRIL 18th."

sector

(05/22/2002; 13:03:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76253)

Missile-carrying Indian warships sail near Pakistan, air force on alert

Missile-carrying Indian naval warships steamed into the Arabian Sea, closer to Pakistan, as military tensions between the two South Asian nuclear neighbours soared, officials here said.

"We have moved five frontline ships of the eastern fleet to be cross-deployed to the western seaboard to augment the force levels," Naval spokesman Commander Rahul Gupta said.

Highly-placed naval sources told AFP that four of the vessels are armed with missiles but the spokesman declined to elaborate on the redeployment, which comes in the middle of heightening military tensions between India and Pakistan.

"A Russian-built destroyer, an indigenous frigate and three corvettes are steaming into the Arabian Sea from the Bay of Bengal," the source said, adding the destroyer, the frigate and two of the corvettes are capable of launching missiles.

The Indian Navy has already brought the country's merchant navy under its flag and kept its only aircraft carrier on a state of alert in the Bay of Bengal.

The Indian Air Force, the world's fourth largest, also went on alert as India's mobilisation gained momentum on Wednesday.

"We are still not at the stage where we scramble jets but we are now on a state of alert," a senior offical from the Western Air Command told AFP on condition of anonymity.

He said the air force has also cleared some 80 grounded MiG-21s for operational duty due to the increased tensions. The planes were grounded when a jet ploughed into a state-run bank, killing or injuring 23 people earlier this month.

"We are also redeploying our Mirage-2000 and Jaguars to forward locations from their mother bases," the official said of the fleet of French- and British-built warplanes which adds teeth to India's mainly Russian-built air force.

The Press Trust of India said the air force was also moving its "strategic assets" including ground-to-air-missiles to protect vital installations but there was no independent confirmation of the dispatch.

The twin moves come amid signs India and Pakistan are moving to the brink of war, with an already bitter standoff being intensified Wednesday by a statement by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee that the time had come for a "decisive fight."

"Our goal should be victory because now the time has come for a decisive fight and in this war we will win ... We have to fight our own war, we are ready for it, we are prepared for it," Vajpayee said, addressing Indian troops on the Kashmiri frontlines.

Tensions between the two South Asian states, which have fought three wars since independence in 1947, were sent soaring on December 13 when Islamic militants New Delhi claims were sponsored by Islamabad attacked the Indian parliament, leaving 14 people dead.

Since then, India and Pakistan have together deployed nearly one million troops along their shared border.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Rock

(05/22/2002; 13:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76254)

Rocks guess is $324.20 for new gold contest

I believe gold could go much higher in a moments notice with all this terrorism and global disorder happening but assuming nothing major occures between now and next Friday, I'll go with $324.20.

This website here at USA GOLD by far is my most visited site. I can usually get all major finanical as well as revelant current events right here. Good day mates,

Rock

Graefin

(05/22/2002; 13:27:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76255)

CNBC and JPM Interview...

CNBC's Money Honey just interviewed some JPM Yayhoo who said that if the gold prices follow the lead it took in 1980, we could be looking at Gold price at around $1800 per ounce. Was that JPM saying that??? hmmmmm!
Peace!
- Gr�fin

YGM

(05/22/2002; 13:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76256)

Contest.....

$$$319.50$$$.....Why because with all that's going on one guess is as good as another :>} I can't let my optimism get in the way of my pessimism in this case....If AU goes higher than my guess, well I'm still a winner.....YGM

Graefin

(05/22/2002; 13:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76257)

My McGuess...

I'll also be optimistic for gold prices...My guess is $$$324.60$$$ Why? Because Gold is on a run!
Peace, Love, and Gold Bars!
- Gr�fin

Tevye

(05/22/2002; 13:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76258)

Contest

$$$$$333.3$$$$$
If I was better educated I could give a reasoning such as:
On the one hand... On the other hand...
But on the other hand, a couple dollars a day is all it takes to get there.

Gold. Its Tradition!
Tevye

YGM

(05/22/2002; 14:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76259)

A QUOTE FOR WAYWARD GOLD ANALYSTS, & MANIPULATION SCEPTICS.

Found by a Friend.......fwd...Quote:..............

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives."

-- Count Leo Tolstoy

Aristotle

(05/22/2002; 14:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76260)

"How High can Gold Go?" Great find, YGM.

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B376C816E%2DA560%2D4B68%2DA50B%2D77658557DCB7%7D&siteid=mktwI found the article you mentioned. It was nearing the bottom of the newswire so I've captured it here for any Johnny-come-latelies. Here are some scenes from the report that impressed me one way or another:

---START---
JOHANNESBURG (CBS.MW) -- Though they differ on whether shares of their local mining companies are currently overvalued, South African mining analysts are unanimous about the price of gold. They say it can only move higher.

The rising price is forcing hedged companies to cover their positions. Durban Deep is currently borrowing the money to cover its positions

the move to cover those positions will continue to push the price of bullion higher.

Also buoying the metal skyward is a looming shortage of supply. World gold production is beginning to plateau, said Davis. Beginning in 2003, it will begin to drop off between 3 and 4 percent annually. By 2005, it will fall sharply.

"If you think the crises of the world are going to escalate, you can buy some very expensive shares. If you think things will pass, you will go underweight."

Long-term, Davis said, a truly conservative investor would be well-advised to buy the metal itself and avoid the gold mining shares altogether.

But shares of gold mining stocks, say the South African analysts, are to be traded, not held, whether the price of bullion goes up or down.
----END----

Hey everyone, that second-to-last paragraph sounds like something I'd say!

The key to very last paragraph is that anyone dabbling in mining shares had best adopt a trading mentality... but what a wasted life! Who has time to sit as a trader and dote over the latest corporate developments, political developments, currency exchange developments, swings in share price, etc. that all affect the profitability of the company and your share ownership?

If you're a gambler, and an interest in this sorta trading thing IS your lifestyle, then go for it! With my blessing. You've found your calling, and I hope you do well! (Do you drink coffee in the morning, or do you muddle through with SBUX trading, too?)

The reason that share ownership of mines [A.HOLE] is necessarily NOT a buy-and-hold sorta thing (in contrast to Real Gold) is because mining companies, by nature of their mines, are a wasting enterprise. Every day of operation brings each mine one day closer to the exhaustion of the ore body. The mining company must either pour its profits into exploration with the hope of finding somewhere else to continue operations before their mine life (and corporate life) comes to an end, or else they merge with other companies who are also in the Same Boat. Each day bringing them one day closer to a played-out hole in the ground.

Let me put it this way to cover the bases...

Mining companies are fundamentally a crappy investment.

They always tend to operate at the margin of existence. Everyone employed by the company has a vested interest in merely preserving the longest possible existence for their employer/goldmine, ever and always at the sacrifice of fat profits or possible windfall dividends to the shareholders.

To extend mine life mines will operate marginally, engaging in highgrading (at low POG) or "lowgrading" (at higher POG,) and for tax purposes will expense out interim "profits" for exploration in attempts to replace the ever-diminishing in-ground reserves.

At the end of a successful mining operation, what have you got to show for it all? A body of workers who were gainfully employed for a good while, all standing around a spent out hole in the ground. An no retained Gold to show for it -- UNLESS, and ONLY IF, the workers spent some of their salaries to buy the final Product! Same thing goes for the owners/shareholders who maybe got some paltry dividends (see above) but no salary from the money flow of the operation along the way.

Standing around an empty hole with all the minable Gold now in the hands of others. In the end of ends, after all intermediate mergers and whatnot, this is where all mining companies end up.

Unless...

Unless they shift their operation into other types of activity. During the past years of lean returns when even highgrading wasn't enough to make ends meet, we actually saw a number of miners throw in the shovel and try to become some sort of internet service company. Do you remember that during the tech-boom of the late 1990's? I do. But I haven't kept track of their fate, so I can only imagine that they, too, went bust along with many other dot.coms.

So go ahead... invest in A.HOLE, and then tell your children you're too busy charting its performance to join them for a picnic in the park.

Gold. For life. It'll always be there to dip into whenever your days of need might arrive.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

goldquest

(05/22/2002; 14:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76261)

Contest

$$$$$440.20$$$$$
Why? Because in all of the previous contests, i've always been about $40 too high! Let's see if it works this time!

Gandalf the White

(05/22/2002; 14:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76262)

STRIKE ONE !!! oops, Thanks Gimli !!

Gimli_ (05/22/02; 12:55:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76252)
Looks like new contest is already over. ;-))))))
====
Not April ---- MAY 30th at MIDNIGHT ! (Denver time)
Darn cut and paste technique needs proofreading !
BUT, remember Gimli, I have your PRECIOUS !
<;-)
THE RULES (revised)
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$543.2$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes TWELVE (Midnight) on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany the "Guess".
===
<;-)

Graefin

(05/22/2002; 14:30:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76263)

Aristotle, YGM...How high can she go???

Thanks for the link and comments on owning a hole in the ground. That doesn't make cents! Danke!
- Gr�fin

Jimbo

(05/22/2002; 14:31:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76264)

Jimbo's guess

From the fast-learning gold neophyte, I guess $320.44.

Graefin

(05/22/2002; 14:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76265)

Grandlaf...stike 1...

Does this mean we have to re-post our guesses because the original wording in the contest rules were screwed up???
hmmmmm

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 14:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76266)

US Stock Market Ends Higher On Bin Laden Capture Rumor

It is funny how a false rumor of the capture of Osama Bin Laden moved the stock markets higher at the end of trading today. The rumors were denied but the markets ended in positive territory even though there was virtually no good news to trade on.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(05/22/2002; 14:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76267)

Lady (I am GUESSING) Graefin's QUSTION !

Graefin (05/22/02; 14:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 76265)
Grandlaf...stike 1...
Does this mean we have to re-post our guesses because the original wording in the contest rules were screwed up???
hmmmmm
====
NO!!! Not at all !! It means that two more STRIKES for me, and I am OUT !!!
<;-)

YGM

(05/22/2002; 15:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76268)

Paper Or Gold.......

NOT GOLD PAPER!! Don't Confuse the Two.....Gold Is Heavy :>}Crusin around another Kitco-like site I read one poster advising another that it's a paper or gold decision one has to make. Well with all due respect to this fellow the Gold he's refering to IS only paper...............
Gold Stocks...(in this case)

To me paper can be Gold Stocks, Gold Colored, Red, Green, Blue or Rainbow Banknotes, T-Bills, Bonds etc...IT WILL NEVER EVER BE ANYTHING BUT A DEFAULTABLE PROMISSARY NOTE NO MATTER WHAT YOU PRINT ON IT, OR EVEN IF YOU BUY IT FROM THE MOST POWERFUL GOVERNMENT IN THE WORLD...Physical Gold in your hand and in "YOUR" place of safekeeping, not a safety deposit box in some institution (Bank)...IS THE ULTIMATE STORE OF WEALTH...Paper anything outside of a will leaving you an inheritance, is all a false reality...I truly hope any who might deny the reality of this rant will never find out just how real it may be in future...Gold Coin, Gold Bars, Silver both, are the only real money and will endure war or any other conflaguration, even if man doesn't......
I no longer own a home nor property as I wish not to loose any of what little I have to devaluation by forces of which I have no control...If the Financial World goes down the tubes so will land costs. Meantime leasing is cheap when you don't maintain or pay property taxes on a home, and someday if the time is right I can take a chance anew...It will be 500 acres for what 5 costs now...I may be called a fatalist but the Dirty 30's Depression will return as sure as God made some men foolish........YGM.

onlychild

(05/22/2002; 15:10:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76269)

Contest

$$$318.2$$$ As much as I would like to see a monster break-out, I believe those in control of the POG still have a few tricks up their sleeves. I think gold will move slightly higher, but barring terrorist activity or a war in India I don't expect any huge moves. Instead I believe that gold will continue to slowly climb as national and international economic conditions slowly decay. OC

mikal

(05/22/2002; 15:11:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76270)

Play the CONTEST by the RULES

We have no excuse this time, the gold market can't be that demoralizing! Among other rules, you MUST give a "short paragraph" justificaton for your guess. Remember school? I do. We never had it so good. That means teacher and students get to humiliate you or praise you! 2) Teachers are merciful to students that make life easy for them, so "Use $$$ signs around your guess" so th knights can spot ye entry. 3) Use a $ price in tenths 4) No duplicate, counterfeit, or derivative entries.

sector

(05/22/2002; 15:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76271)

Bin Laden's "Capture" and the Taiwan Market of 1988

I was there on a business trip and by chance examined their business news. The business headline was "US President Assinated"! Markets FALL!

The markets did fall by about 5%...and the shorts cleaned up.

So American markets have now degenerated to the "Gotcha" rules of yellow journalism....Whoda thought?

Graefin

(05/22/2002; 15:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76272)

Grandalf...

Danke Grandalf! But I was only kidding! You're fun to tease!
- Gr�fin ;)

sector

(05/22/2002; 15:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76273)

Britain withdraws 150 diplomats from Pakistan

RASHMEE Z AHMED
TIMES NEWS NETWORK�[ WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2002��9:00:29 PM ]
LONDON: Britain will withdraw more than 150 diplomats from Pakistan for security reasons on account of "terrorist outrages" and "internal threats inside Pakistan", in a move that is being read by some as a clear criticism of General Musharraf's professed crackdown on Islamist militants.
The announced withdrawal came within hours of British foreign secretary Jack Straw's publicly-stated decision to lead an emergency mission to India and Pakistan early next week because of the "real and very disturbing possibility of war".
The withdrawal of British diplomats, closure of visa services and many consular offices in Pakistan comes within days of what diplomatic sources say was a firm lecture for the Pakistani authorities by British Prime Minister Tony Blair's chief foreign policy advisor David Manning.
The sources said Manning, a hard-hitting and experienced former ambassador to NATO and Israel, talked tough in Islamabad before going on to Delhi.
Announcing the withdrawal of diplomats from Pakistan, British foreign secretary Jack Straw stressed on Wednesday, "it was a matter of public record�and on account of internal security within Pakistan and is not directly related to the situation on the Line of Control with Kashmir".

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Rats leaving the "Ship"?

sector

(05/22/2002; 15:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76274)

Don't test our patience, PM warns Pak

PTI�[ WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2002��12:48:06 PM ]

KUPWARA: Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has bluntly told Pakistan that there is a limit to India's tolerance to the proxy war it was waging.
Read this news in Marathi"Nobody should think that the threshold of our tolerance has no limit," he told troops in Kupwara, not far from the Line of Control, on Wednesday.

"India is forced to fight a proxy war thrust on it and we will emerge victorious. Let there be no doubt about it."

Vajpayee said that a challenge has been thrown to India and "we accept it".

"The world understands that we have been wronged but they are not coming out with their views openly. Hence we have to defend ourselves; we are ready for that.

"My arrival here is indicative of something. Whether our neighbour understands it or not, whether the world takes note of it or not, history will record that we will write a new chapter of victory..." he said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Tought to misinterpret these words.

CoBra(too)

(05/22/2002; 15:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76275)

@ Sector - Looking at the Geography of Kashmir ... and other matters

- Any Indian Missile Vessels may only do some harm directly to Karatschi - which is located on the Arabian Sea Shore - while even Delhi is half way up to the mountain locked Kashmir province - imbedded between the Hindukush and Karakorum Mountains ...
and Islamabad is about 1500 km north of any seagoing vessel - though their common border is following the same stretch from the Arabian Sea to the Karakorum and ultimately to Tibet and China.

On the other political fronts - Bush in Berlin is seeing his 911 solidarity waning - so is Sharon - even if the suicide bombing is picking up again.

EU - is trying to figure out common foreign policies in the first testimony of the new EU Convent. Patton and Solana should be upgraded to full commissioners or is it commissaries or even Commiseraries or whatever to effect a common language on the l.t. common goal of EU Foreign Policy.

- A defect the US of A - btw. didn't even - thank heaven touch because of the Monroe Doctrine for centuries -

... and when they started to breach this edict - we - as Europeans may have been happy for a while - though the US of A started on a slippery slope - which now may seem to come to the end of the rope in expending too much on the global policing game - which may have become the last(evil -in monetary supremacy terms) Empire in itself, which has to be reigned in before it destroys the rest of the globe - it wanted to liberate from serfdom -

A serfdom, which the evil FRN - Reserve Currency Debt pyramiding Empire now seems to inflict on its own people and by digression seeks to implement upon the rest of the world. ... A system of free floating currencies, whithout any anchor - except the perceived economic capacities - which as history has shown - is not equal to real barter value ... and in the case of the US economy - the barter reserve currency is way below any standard valuation - and is it only the Big Mac Standard ... So in the end something's got to give - it's probably not the Mac - getting bigger (Oh, as - that would mean even more undigestable), or the buying power of the FRN, an unredeemable paper note issued by a private bank, unconstitutionally chartered by (part of) the US Congress to represent the full credit of the (taxpayer) of the official government of US of A ...

And just before the SM's closed today - a rumor of capturing or killing Osama Bin Laden - turned the markets into positive territory - only tells me - get the heck out of any paper assets, which are based purely on hope ...

and to the contrary ... sems like POG closed at a new high for the move at 318 - still measured in $/oz - and who really cares as the value may either be in weight (as ARI says - get it while the weight is heavy - or to such ends) or in the buying power of real assets ... which would be an oxymoron - if it would not be measured, valued and weighed in gold again ...

Sorry for ramblin' along ... cb2 -

PS: @ Gr�fin - If it doesn't make cents - some o' these ole holes have at least yielded some nuggets - as both ARI and YGM may still be aware of - Note the past tense! As even these may have been and will be strangled by forward future
and other pretense - as you can't hedge all the gold in the ground forever - you might also see some truism in some unhedged reserves and resources in "deep storage" - Even it it is your li'l ol' pile in your backyard ... Nichts f�r Ungut ... und K�ss die Hand ... bon soir, madame!

Graefin

(05/22/2002; 16:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76276)

Gute Nacht!

Okay boys, it's been fun, but it's past my bedtime again. Think I'll go get me some Gold!
- Gr�fin
- and don't forget--->Margaritas forever!

Believer

(05/22/2002; 16:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76277)

Contest 5-31-02

$$$334.30$$$
Because I feel that all of the pieces are in place. Small or junior mining stocks have been bumping up gradually for the last four to five months. They are reaching a point of no return. Their share prices are starting to become more visible to investors looking for a safe place to be. Up to this point people have not heard much about gold or all of the mining company shares whose prices were beaten into the dust, but when they see the price rises of the whole sector the news will spread like wild-fire. This has been a good week. Next week more people will be aware and the iceberg of suppression will begin to break apart. $$$334.30$$$ will be a moderate next step!

rsjacksr

(05/22/2002; 16:32:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76278)

Contest

This time it will be $$$$$$339.00$$$$$$$. I'm positive

THX-1138

(05/22/2002; 16:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76279)

Contest Guess ------ $$$$$324.9$$$$$

Gold will trend higher, but it won't get out of the hands of the powers that be until we get closer to the 30th June 2002. That is the time when the US Government is expected to default on their Treasury bonds. When the bond market explodes into chaos, gold will follow.

Yellow Metal

(05/22/2002; 16:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76280)

Jump In The Water's fine?

After reading . . .

Gandalf the White (05/22/02; 12:42:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 76251)
TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
"Good Luck All !
COME ON you Lurkers, Jump IN!!!
<;-) "

I STARTED HYPERVENTILATING !
I WAS AFRAID.

Yes . . the lurker's life is a lonely one (sigh)
However, as many previous posters have said, it's somewhat intimidating to join a body of such august personnages.

I wouldn't post but for the promise of glory . . .and the regret that I hesitated too long and missed the last contest. :-)

Giving my reasons for predicting a particular future price is undeniably a form of noisome feedback such as that between a guitar and an amplifier.All my knowledge being predicated upon what I've read here or in the articles selectively linked from here; means that I'm perhaps (to continue the analogy)only adding a harmonic.

Enough with the excuses and on with my reasons.
I'm not a chartist but several have mentioned parabolas with regard to US Dollar and POG. Largely based upon my experiences with market stocks (I've seen parabolas in operation) I feel that one is forming. The curve on gold is a longer curve than most of the stocks that I have followed but I believe the psychology of investing remains the same.
Also . .
There is a tendency when involved in a group to believe that the group's concensus is significant globally and I believe that the posters here are too select to be representative of mainstream thought.
( Perhaps that's so self evident as to be amusing).
The public is just waking up to a new version of world events and the lag time from the "cognoscenti's" perceptions vis a vis the rest of the world is the factor that I think will account for a tremendous forthcoming rise.
Having said that I take a deep breath and type.

$$$$$324.8$$$$$

Thank you all for many happy hours of reading.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 17:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76281)

CNN Aisa Biz Editor...Gold $325.....and Euro as Alternative Currency.....

http://asia.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/05/22/aust.gold.biz/index.htmlExcerpt:

Goode said the U.S. dollar's recent weakness was the main factor driving the gold price higher. Currency traders had decided the U.S. dollar had run too far against other currencies such as the euro.

Alternative currency
He said the euro was now establishing itself as an alternative paper currency to the dollar. Black market money that previously flowed exclusively to the U.S. currency now had a second choice.

He said gold usually moved on seasonal factors, with a rise in June at the time of the Italian jewelry fairs and again in August-September as Europe's summer business lull came to an end.

"Now is usually a weak period for gold, so its price is excellent," Goode said.

Hong Kong-based investment adviser Mark Faber, author of the "Gloom, Boom and Doom" report, has been a gold fan for some time.

AUtistic

(05/22/2002; 17:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76282)

Guesses

HEY! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!!!!!! *****312.50*****

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/22/2002; 17:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76283)

GOLD PRICE PREDICTION!

$$$$$$ 314.90 $$$$$$$$$
After Bush gets back from EUROPE trip, dollar will regain its strength, with SMS (Dow and Nasdaq) moving higher, and GOLD heading south. Talked to a MIDEAST gold broker yesterday, a person who buys PHYSICAL from weak people for deep pocketed people at a 3% and 4% discount to spot. HE CLAIMS: tensions overseas are moderating (HYPE FROM THE PRESS IS OVEREXAGGERATED AND HUSSEIN NOW AGAIN WILL LET INSPECTORS IN) and he is AGAIN picking up clients who want to drop minimums of 100 KILOS of Physical for Discount!
He DOES NOT buy, except at discount levels! He thinks it will be back under $300 within 2 months. FWIW.

Trapper

(05/22/2002; 17:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76284)

Contest

$$$319.90$$$ I think we will stay range bound for a short time. This of course excludes a nuke going off...then who cares you won't be able to buy anyway. Live small.
RJ

R Powell

(05/22/2002; 18:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76285)

Yellow Metal

Interesting thought on a possible future parabola shaped POG chart. I received a GATA e-mail recently which gave a number of 3500 for the metropole membership. I've often wondered about the size of our readership and the size of the investment community in precious metals investments. I fear we are a very small number in comparison to the numbers daily seeking investment opportunities, some of these managers of huge mountains of money. It has often been mentioned that only a tiny amount of this force, directed toward gold and silver, could really get us rockin and rollin.
Towncrier often says, we'll have hyperinflation. I think so too, perhaps unavoidable and necessary to monetize too much debt. But even without this, I think the parabola shaped chart of POG is highly likely when the money of the masses follows the smart money into this sector. The chartist tell us that the longer the base, the bigger the coming move (higher!) will be. The market has been basing for years.
I think I'd like a big wall size chart of this chart to go with the one depicting the past 12 years silver deficit. Now when friends ask, "How's gold doing, Rich?", I'll be able to answer, "Parabolic, man, parabolic!"
Thanks for the parabolic picture.
Rich

mikal

(05/22/2002; 18:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76286)

@AUtistic

Rumor has it that a post such as yours disqualifies! You lost the rspect of the Knights and your chance to win. Too bad. You did have one or two good things to say over the years. Hasten back now with at least one more trifle or disparagement- you'll attain paragraph length anyway. Or redeem yourself before its too late.

AUtistic

(05/22/2002; 18:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76287)

O-WELL

NOT *****312.50*****, but $$$$$312.50$$$$$

AUtistic

(05/22/2002; 18:24:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76288)

O-REally!!!!!!!!

If it was RESPECT I was trying to gain, then I REALLY need to get a LIFE!!!!!I have a lot of things going on in my life, SUCH AS 50-400% gains in my investments in the last 12 months!I tend to gain SELF ESTEEM by EARNING it! That's the ONLY way one can achieve it! TRY, buying, stealing, borrowing, or begging it! HOWEVER, if I have broken a rule ,please advise! THANX!

Gandalf the White

(05/22/2002; 18:25:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76289)

1st UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

June COMEX GOLD Contract SETTLEMENT Price CONTEST 5/31Thanks Sir Mikal !!! I need all the help I can get. <;-)
--
mikal (05/22/02; 15:11:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76270)
Play the CONTEST by the RULES
===

EARLY ENTRIES in Contest sorted by Price !!

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280)

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282
====
Please note that some prices are being "SQUEEZED" already!!
<;-)

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur from now until midnight (MDT) (Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract SETTLEMENT Price on Friday, May 31, 2002
---
THE RULES (revisited)
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$543.2$$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion paragraph MUST accompany the "Guess".
===
NOTE: Slight modifications to "proper" digets have been made to Sir Jimbo's ENTRY.
Thanks for all you earlybirds to get this CONTEST underway. Nice to see that "Lurkers" are testing the water also. COMEON IN !!!
<;-)

AUtistic

(05/22/2002; 18:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76290)

addition-mikal

I TOTALLY forgot to mention, THANK YOU for @ LEAST your response, as it the VERY 1ST!, EVER!!!!!!!!!

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 18:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76291)

The Hidden Story - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Likewise, the gold and silver story is never fully disclosed. The fact that production is about to go into decline, or that the gold and silver industry has been running supply deficits and the price has remained suppressed appears normal. Most major mining companies haven't been replacing their annual production with new reserves each year. With prices at historically low levels, it hasn't been economic to go out and find new reserves. Instead, the industry has contracted and major gold production is about to go into decline. Over the next few years, with no new major projects coming on stream, and existing reserves constantly being depleted, high rates of production prices are going to be heading a lot higher than they are today. Gold and silver production are projected to markedly decline.

Black Blade: Actually I am looking forward to at least a 10 bagger. As Jim points out � PM production is declining and reserves are not being replaced. If anything, the large fat dumb and happy Gold miners are buying what smaller companies they can. Generally they are now too inept to find reserves anymore as most competent exploration geologists have left the industry to never return (I know many who went into petroleum, teaching, retail, government, environmental, etc.). It will take sustained higher Gold prices and much higher compensation to attract these people back. I think most of these Gold miners screwed themselves.

mikal

(05/22/2002; 18:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76292)

@AUtistic

Sadly, a royal page has brought word from the town square. Some people are discomfitted by your message, not knowing if you are bullish long-term or bearish or mid or short-term bearish. Since all the knights, as you know, are held in equal esteem, your opinion must be clarified before a true consensus can be reached. So, hear there plea, before the sun sets and they disperse. I humbly bid adieu.

mikal

(05/22/2002; 18:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76293)

@AUtistic

Your welcome Sir AUtistic. And please accept my sincere gratitude for your newly amended entry. Don't be a stranger!

CoBra(too)

(05/22/2002; 18:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76294)

@ The Fiddler on the Roof - Tevje

- Wenn ich einmal reich werd -
h�tt ich Gold gekauft-
Solang's noch so billig war...

So, go ahead and spend
your nickels and dimes
where it counts - in pm's

And the Tevje - sing your song again:

Wenn ich einmal reich werd ...

...

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 18:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76295)

Banks report big increase in bad loans, foreclosures

http://www.uniontrib.com/news/business/20020521-9999_1b21banks.htmlSnippit:

Bad loans and foreclosed properties nearly doubled for San Diego County banks last year, as bankers found it harder to collect on their loans in the sluggish economy. The rise in troubled loans, which is occurring throughout the nation.

Black Blade: An economic recovery? Yeah, right.

ausome

(05/22/2002; 18:51:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76296)

Comp guess

$$$315.40$$$

Without getting too technical I can't imagine the BB's and CB's liking this latest price rise. IMHO prices need a little breather with all the gold talk in the media the public may get interested! It would be healthy for the market to pull back a little before resuming the upward climb.
NB.
FOA said sometime back $360 was the line in the sand which would make or break the market and would be defended.
Incidently where are you lurking FOA? We have seen Aristotle giving some erudite posts on the merits of physical but sadly no FOA.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 19:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76297)

Fund industry faces new challenges

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4B995572%2D432F%2D4C70%2DA77A%2D5478157924C2%7D&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Two losing years for the stock market and new competitive pressures are the hot button topics facing mutual fund executives gathering this week in Washington for the annual meeting of their trade association, the Investment Company Institute.

Mutual fund portfolios have been plagued by severely deflated inflows as a disgruntled and fearful client base sidelined, and in many cases pulled, their investments. "The fund industry has disappointed millions of customers and thousands of financial advisers," said Louis Harvey, president of Boston research firm Dalbar Inc. "The challenge is how do you regain the trust of people who've seen their portfolios drop 20, 30 or even 40 percent?"

Black Blade: It's a new environment, and as most people adjust to the new environment they don't know how to function. They are taught to diversify and yet they don't know the meaning of the word. I saw a short quip on CNBC about Gold last night and the female anchor did acknowledge that Gold was doing well and functioned as a store of value. A couple of guests did mention the benefits of Gold, and there was the obligatory naysayer who was "significantly bearish". Yet at the end, the female reporter mentioned that the Argentines know the importance of having an alternate currency � like Gold. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 19:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76299)

Japan Has Little Success in Attempt to Weaken Yen vs Dollar

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APOu.OhT0SmFwYW4g
Snippit:

New York, May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan sold yen in a bid to halt a three-month rally that threatens to hurt exports. Officials had little success as the currency erased its losses within hours.

International investors bought yen, offsetting the government's sales, to scoop up Japanese stocks as a bet the world's second-largest economy is pulling out of recession. Analysts said the yen's quick rebound indicates Japan will struggle -- as it has in the past -- to weaken the currency. ``They're fighting a losing battle,'' said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts, which has $4.5 billion under management. He said he purchased yen after the Bank of Japan sold an estimated $3 billion worth of the currency.

Black Blade: The Japanese government is selling Yen and Buying US Dollars. However, this is doomed to failure as Japanese see their savings go down the crapper. In response Japanese are buying anything � stocks, bonds, and even (gulp) Gold. Politicians and government economists aren't exactly rocket scientists. These pathetic attempts to weaken an already devastated currency will only backfire as the citizenry look for safe havens and foreign vultures look for carrion to feed on.

White Hills

(05/22/2002; 19:23:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76300)

$$$$352.5$$$$

Any kind of incident, India & Pakistan war, Israel attack on Arafat, Terror attack in Us, ect., ect. would send POG soaring. Anything is possible in current climate of fear and rage. White Hills

Paper Avalanche

(05/22/2002; 19:27:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76301)

AUtistic - Sparrows, is that you?

Are the yahoo boards no longer holding your interest or have you been given a new assignment?

Take care old friend.

PA

Creosote

(05/22/2002; 19:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76303)

Contest

$$$$336.00$$$$ Dollar weakening;threat of war;hedging over;leasing over;decreased production;decreased supply.

AUtistic

(05/22/2002; 19:40:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76304)

sparrows??

What the HELL is going on??? Is there only 10-20 posters in the world??!!?? Jesus-H! This IS more redundant than I thought!!!!!!!!!

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 19:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76305)

How High Can Gold Go?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B376C816E%2DA560%2D4B68%2DA50B%2D77658557DCB7%7D&siteid=mktw
South African analysts see higher prices ahead

Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG (CBS.MW) -- Though they differ on whether shares of their local mining companies are currently overvalued, South African mining analysts are unanimous about the price of gold. They say it can only move higher.

"In the short-term, we'll see a steady build of new highs in the gold price," says Piet Stoltz, who recently moved from research over to investment banking at BoE Bank.

The rally in gold's price is being largely driven by a slow recovery in the U.S. economy and fears of continued instability on the world stage. Even if the U.S. economy did start to power forward, said Stoltz, "gold is still going to go up for the next 18 months."

Black Blade: Considering the decay in the stock markets and the decay in corporate earning while under crushing record level debt, I would venture a "conservative" guess that we should see Gold prices trend much higher, possibly higher than the $350 to $380 range by year end and building to over $420 early next year. The weakening US Dollar is destined to weaken further and this could accelerate a much higher POG.

Paper Avalanche

(05/22/2002; 19:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76307)

Was not questioning your position in the market, but your possible prior life as a poster on a yahoo board for a gold mining stock (no names mentioned per the rules of this forum) as "Sparrows." I apologize if I am incorrect, but I notice very similar patterns, including your last post which does not directly address the question posed but seeks to divert attention from the question itself.

Again, if I am incorrect in my assumption, please accept my apology. I am glad to see another new poster on this fine forum. I came here from the other board to study and engage the thoughts of those who were able to intellectually discuss the topic physical gold ownership and the likely outcome of the demise of the dollar.

I do not put it above those who infiltrated the yahoo gold stock message boards to try and do the same on this fine forum. I trust that your intentions are pure to simply act as devil's advocate to the physical gold argument from time to time.

Something tells me that I will recieve a sprirted reply to this post.

PA

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 20:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76308)

Bulls Jump to Golds Defense

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BC1003E750E?OpenDocument
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG � A story on theMingweb.com last night posed the question: Is it time to take profits on gold? Predictably, the site's more bullish readers took umbrage at the conservative comments made by some Johannesburg-based analysts, who advised investors to cash in their gold investments. This morning, the dollar was again weaker against other major currencies and tensions between India and Pakistan came closer to boiling point and the threat of another terrorist attack on the US was raised; these three factors caused the gold price to run another $3 an ounce to $319.50. The Johannesburg gold index followed suit and climbed an amazing 5.2 percent by lunchtime and commentators trying to call the top of the market were once again left with egg on their faces, as gold shares streaked further ahead.

Black Blade: It is interesting how many "analysts" are "significantly bearish" on Gold. They have had egg on their faces for quite some time. As each milestone is passed they raise their target a couple of bucks and then say there will be a "pullback". Each time they have been proven wrong. I doubt these "youngsters" were around during the last Gold Bull Market or were in diapers during the last real recession.

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2002; 20:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76309)

Stopped Clocks & Empty Barrels

"same old same old"? Got that right -- who knows how it will pay off? My timing's awful -- been waiting for Oct '87 crash to happen again, since, uh, Nov '87. Greenspan & whoever have skunked me several times. So I talk about it, with people who've been through similar experiences. (But -- one o' these days...)

As for fear of discussing confiscation -- I mean -- HUH? -- it's been gone around enough times -- there's a spectrum of threat -- anyone's guess where we'll land on it -- and spectrum of remedies. We've all matched our plans to our best guesses. And then -- what the **** you gonna do after that? Not get gold? Well -- DUH-H-H-H-H!

The complainer proposes no remedy to match his complaint, no recommendation for us to follow, except quitting the entire effort, I guess. That's like not having kids because you're afraid one of them might turn out to be a drug addict. You take your best shot.

Sometimes a bad attitude is just a bad attitude. Sometimes a troll is just a troll. Well I guess I don't have to explain empty barrels...

DOWNUNDER

(05/22/2002; 20:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76310)

RE SO CALLED " GOLD EXPERT " - - -

Black Blade (05/22/02; 06:44:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 76228)
Gold is heading for $325 an ounce, according to one gold expert
http://asia.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/05/22/aust.gold.biz/index.html
------------------------------------------------------------
This article was also mentioned in post 221 --BB stealing thunder --again :)------
The so called expert -Keith Goode is an absolute wanker & has been bearish about gold for the past 2 years.Now like a
lot of other "ex-spurts" he is trying to establish some credibility. He has NONE! I personally rang him in Sydney around 2 years ago after he wrote a particulaily nasty & degrading article on Gold & why it was a bye gone relic -at least that was his gist. Now he's surfacing again & being referred to as an expert! He's a total tool of the Cabal.Its enough to make a gold bug sick.

USAGOLD

(05/22/2002; 20:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76311)

Mr. Gresham. . .Of Trolls, Clubs and the Price of Gold. . .

Mr. Gresham, I regret to report that we had a malfunction with the Castle drawbridge causing it to collapse on a couple of trolls with the habit of lurking unpleasantly near this Hallowed Hall. I would suggest that any other trolls looking to take up residence near here that the Order of the Guard has not relinquished its responsibilities.

As for the club aspect referred to, we constantly have changeover here, new blood to mix with the old. All are welcome. In fact the purpose of our Contests is to bring in new people and break the ice. No matter what is said by our detractors, this remains not only the best gold discussion on the internet -- it may very well be one of the best discussion boards on the internet, period, irrespective of subject matter.

Carry on, my friends -- fellow knights and ladies. We have a Contest in progress.

As for any trolls lurking out there, that light at the end of the tunnel?? It's a train. . . . .Be assured that we have never been reluctant to wield the sword.

sector

(05/22/2002; 20:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76312)

Why the Gold Bull has very long legs...Hint: [ There are 10,000 tonnes of metal to "Pay Back"]

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary20.html#anchor6097From the excellent "Gold Jungle Book" at the above link.

Thus, assuming that all 3000 tonnes of producer hedging consists of forward contracts and that all options reported by the BIS could be settled in cash rather than metal, outstanding forwards and swaps on the books of bullion banks and dealers appear to exceed new mine production committed to them by some 10,000 tonnes, or approximately four years of new mine supply. Under these circumstances, banks and dealers are unlikely to permit producers to reduce forward contracts calling for payment in gold other than by delivery of metal itself.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This explains why Newmont is having a tad bit of trouble closing its Normandy hedge book and why Barrick received a "margin Call" for 7 million ounces last week.

Most of the above loaned gold was loaned at a price far below today's pog and therefore the lenders are getting deeper and deeper under water as time passes. The pressure to reclaim their loaned gold builds and builds. Recall from Anatal E. Fetke's excellent essay "The Texas Hedges of Barrick" at the Cafe and at G-E, that there is no upper limit to the price of gold and therefore no loss limit for these gold dealers and central banks.

Also in Reg Howe's essay is the important news that UBS has removed the BIS as it's bullion dealer. Presumably because the BIS was channeling too much of UBS's gold the the gold suppression scheme.

Finally, the comical JPM blurb today about a $330 pog "Peak" underscores the fact that the cabal's only remaining strategy is hope...and THAT is no strategy at all.

mikal

(05/22/2002; 20:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76313)

@Downunder

Black Blade doesn't "steal thunder", he creates it, posts it, and hears it echo through the worthy on the world wide web. When an experienced "expert" makes a mistake working for the Cabal or mainstream media, it pays to listen to him. Aside from bringing his own background experiences and formal learning into play, the message may be either bullishly contrarian or subtly revealing, to say the least. Shanthi.

Waverider

(05/22/2002; 20:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76314)

The two faces of Saudi Arabia

http://www.atimes.com/c-asia/DE23Ag06.htmlSnippit"
"Even as Saudi Arabia pushes its peace agenda in the Middle East, internal pressures within the kingdom are mounting on the House of Saud over what is perceived as a far too pro-Western - especially American - foreign policy.

Political analysts point out that there are precedents for the House of Saud giving in to internal pressures, particularly from fundamentalists, and that the present contradictions in the administration's policies make it susceptible once again.

At the very time that Crown Prince Abdullah is pushing his plan for peace, large sections of the people in his country harbor pro-PLO and similar sympathies. And as the suicide bombers continue their relentless attacks in Israel, the Saudi rulers will come under ever-stronger pressure to rethink their ties with the US - or risk another uprising by their own people."

Waverider: There was some discussion here last week on the risk to US oil supplies should Arab fundamentalists assume control in Saudi. This article discusses the pressures building within Saudi from the fundamentalist factions. Interesting, in light of last weeks discussion!

YGM

(05/22/2002; 21:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76315)

AhhhH......Mr Gresham......All.....

Well I guess I don't have to explain empty barrels...Ahem! Sir Gresham I should pray that the Barrels are not empty! My Tankard is half full or half empty & either way we'll all need a dram or three to get thru the Troll dither!
Now outside my Castle Keep it's been laying down the white rain for 16 odd hrs and we're kinda marooned sir. The horses are up to their bellies and calves are dying under the snow for some of the Peasant farmers hereabouts so please don't tell me the barrels are empty of Grog? I'll send over a carrier pigeon flock if ye could strap a wee bit of mead on each one I'd be grateful......ex-YGM

PS: I shouldn't be making light of this storm we have here in the foothills....It's very bad for some I fear...4 to 5 ft of snow already and more coming...Spring Calves are dying already as ranchers can't even get to them with 4 by 4 tractors or horses in some areas...Been 50 yrs since one like this...Hence I'm Castle bound and plan to be a pest for a couple days :>}} Anyone else along the Rockies East side getting this weather????

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 21:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76316)

Re: YGM - Weather

Along the Selway-Bitterroot down into Yellowstone and east we are expecting a snowstorm through tomorrow. Quite cold for this time of year - sure is cutting into my fishing schedule. I am burning some natural gas for warmth now. Well, so much for "Global Warming". Maybe I will get out into the high country this weekend for some cross-country skiing. Cheers!

- Black Blade

darkhorse

(05/22/2002; 21:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76317)

$$$$$ 355.90 $$$$$

I'll be on the road this weekend, and I'm not looking forward to it. It's not the traffic, but the possibility of what could happen (ever get the "hinkies" about somethin?). There's beaucoup big targets (NYC has a b***load of military in town, Indy has the 500, Charlotte has the Coke 600, etc, etc) on a major AMERICAN holiday, and most of them will have nationwide press coverage (I believe Indy is the #1 watched single-day sporting event in the world). What bigger setup could "they" want? I'm going to Indy myself, but if any SHTF I'll be cutting the weekend short. Y'all have a good time this weekend, but be careful and stay safe.

EagleOne

(05/22/2002; 21:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76318)

Contest Entry

$$$318.50$$$ I think spot and the good mining shares are running a little hot right now and that *market forces* will see to it that they get smacked down a bit some time in the next 8 days. Meanwhile spot may go up some more and then come back down, or go down some and come back up. Either way, I won't be surprised to see the June contract end up about where it is now.

Good luck to all and welcome to new posters.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 21:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76319)

Ingot they trust ....Catchy Huh?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2002/05/23/ccom23.xml&sSheet=/money/2002/05/23/ixcoms.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=34383EXCERPT:

Ingot they trust after the course of history restarted on September 11

War fears send gold to two year high
Picture the scene. It's mid-January in the freezing mountains of Afghanistan and Osama Bin Laden is holed up in the Tora Bora cave complex. US and British forces are preparing to go in for the kill with their bearded chums in the Northern Alliance. But the Afghans won't budge. They want to be paid. In vain they are tempted with paper money. Dollars? Pounds? Or, in desperation, euros?

According to a well-informed report in The Spectator magazine at the time, not until some nice heavy glinting gold bars had been flown up, would the Northern Alliance so much as raise a Kalashnikov in the fight against global terrorism. After all, any old warlord can print money.

Gold, by contrast, is the true global currency and rests on nobody's promise to pay. By the time the British and Americans had learnt this painful lesson, Bin Laden and his merry men had slipped away.

Now the market is learning that ancient lesson too. For the best part of two decades, gold has been in a bear market after it touched $800 in 1979 during the last oil shock.

And thinking about it, if ever there was an epoch likely to produce a bear market in gold, it had to be just such a time of peace and prosperity we have just lived through. The Cold War finished, leading one academic to say that the End of History had arrived.

Gordon Brown, who sold 425 tonnes of British gold at the bottom of the market, was not the only one fooled by this attractive myth.

Cont'd @ link....

YGM

(05/22/2002; 21:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76320)

Black Blade...

I know you like myself are prepared for events.....but friend if you get this snowfall you'll be home for a couple days...Man we'll have 6 feet by morning or more...
Nobody here in extreme SW Alberta has seen anything like it for such a short 16-17 hr time frame....Montana must be getting it too, as it's only 30 min to the border from here.....Regards.......ex-YGM

Canuck

(05/22/2002; 21:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 76321)

@ BB

Good day buddy.

I had to reload my PC last week-end and to my dismay I did not back-up my background, 'PMcity.jpg'.

Do you recall where that 'pic' came from?

TIA,

Canuck.

YGM

(05/22/2002; 21:56:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76322)

Karachi...Gold Imports Suspended.....Gold Bars Being Sought After.....

http://www.dawn.com/2002/05/23/ebr1.htmExcerpt:

Investors in world markets, who lost hopes on weakening dollar against key currencies, are now heavily piling up gold for safe haven purposes in case the India-Pakistan tension further picks up momentum and continued Middle East unrest.

"I think gold prices in world markets are expected to go beyond $325 per ounce if tension at Pak-India borders further heats up," All Pakistan Gem Merchants and Jewellers Association (APGMJA) chairman Kamran Khan told Dawn on Wednesday.

The key players in the local markets - ARY, Pardesi and Tessori - had to suspend gold imports few days back after finding it unfeasible. These three key players usually import around 10,000 tola per day.

In the current situation at borders - a question arises whether Pakistani people are really on a hunt to stock gold bars, which is considered as a traditional safe haven asset in times of war and other severe crisis.

Investors and market players in Pakistan have already lost their hopes in dollar since it starts losing its strength after September 11 tragedy. The dollar lost its value by around seven per cent in the inter-bank market and 10 per cent in the open market against the rupee after September 11 incidents. In September gold was being sold at Rs5,465 per 10 grams in the local markets. Since then, gold prices had been skyrocketed by Rs767 per 10 grams.

Stock market has also lost its lustre as investors pulled out heavy investments from the bourse that can be judged by a decline of nearly 300 points in the Karachi Stock Exchange in the last four days.

Excerpt:

"People even some investors have started buying gold bars and we continue to receive daily enquiries," APGMJA chief said, adding that gold is the only option in times of uncertain situations.

Consultant of World Gold Council (WGC) for Pakistan, Syed Faisal Hashmi told Dawn that people are making retail investment in gold bars instead of dollar and stock markets since the tension between the nuclear armed neighbours have escalated in the last one week.

YGM Note...Sheesh...I should have guessed higher I fear!

VanRip

(05/22/2002; 21:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76323)

Contest

$$$$323.60$$$$
The dollar will continue to slide lower helping to push gold higher. Resistance at $325. will keep the price contained. Further dollar weakness and the increasing negative influence of world events will cause $325 to be breached.

Pizz

(05/22/2002; 21:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76324)

The bids are In

Just a comment on market action. Spot gold, silver, PM stocks, or whatever. The action appears to have major buyers just under the markets. Solid floors for upward momentum.

Decisions by major hedgers and shorts will be made this weekend. Keep defending or start covering any way they can.

The smart shorts moved their offices to the ground floor months ago - kind of takes away the impulse to jump. Anyone want to sit in JPM's boardroom as the head of the derivitives unit at the end of the second quarter? Or how about the young hotshot that will have to go in and clean it up? Firing squads would be more humane.

Surf's up, buy more ballast.

Pizz

YGM

(05/22/2002; 22:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76326)

Lots of World Gold News Tonite...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=10722192Excerpt:

Gold prices soar to 6-year high

REUTERS [ THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2002 5:07:17 AM ]

MUMBAI: Gold prices in India, the world's largest consumer, soared to their highest in more than six years on Wednesday, riding a jump in global prices.

Gold opened at Rs 61,700 a bar of 116.64 gm - the highest since February 1996 - up from the previous close of Rs 61,500 and Rs 60,000 a week ago.

Cont'd @ link...

**Note** 6 yr high here, 2 yr in another place 12 months in yet another....Kinda spell out that Gold does not trade equally in all corners of the Globe....

Pizz

(05/22/2002; 22:13:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76327)

YGM

Couldn't help but go check a weather satelite after your second comment on the weather. I thought you were joking.

That storm track over you now stretches clear up thru Alaska. It appears you've got about 2/3's of it still to come.

If it gets too bad, put a little of your stash under you, they'll probably be able to find you about Friday with a good metal detector! Who said gold can't save your life.

I'll have a toddy in sympathy.

Cheers from Seattle.

Pizz

YGM

(05/22/2002; 22:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76328)

RAP....

It's a twenty to one "Rollback"You'll get 1 new for 20 old....Could be good in time or not. One would have to know his due diligence on Co activities....Usually from my experience it's done just prior to new properties being added to asset base or some hot news of a mineral find...If the trading action is dead and stock badly diluted they may be rolling back to lower the float and do a stock issuance to raise fresh capital...Hope this little bit helps you....YGM.

GoldnSilver2002

(05/22/2002; 22:14:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76329)

The prisoners dont realize the walls are gone!

It seems as though there is even more bearish sentiment now that gold has held comfortably over 300 per oz., the so called psychological border.The gold market had been in a bear for over 20 years.Since many of us didnt invest in our 20's,in a sense gold has been down our whole investing lives.Now the big boys are trying to keep the inmates in the prison camp with mere threats,"its overbought!" you need to sell now! Think about it,when do analysts ever say "Sell!" ?Even some of the Goldbugz have been hit on the head so many times,every time they hear a rumour they shudder.Take heart Bros and sisters!They are now so many factors converging on gold all at once that some of us still cant believe it.

What do they mean 21 trillion in derivatives?That cant happen because it never has before,we think! Enron

The japanese banks cant fail! Argentina

America reaches debt ceiling of 5.95 trillion. Bankrupcy?Default?

record personal and corporate debt,weakening u.s dollar,terrorist attacks,bursting of the housing bubble,1.5 million americans unemployed with seasonally adjusted numbers,merill lynch(100 million dollar fine for fraud..we're sorry but we have no money for you!? Coming energy crisis with higher oil prices,inflation,new chinese exchange opens in june(Good timing!),pakistan and india(nukes?),middle east and Bin laden still loose.

All this, and much more of course,are an unbelievable powder keg,that has not existed in a long, long, long time.And according to my studies,may even be worse than things were in 1980.Dont talk to me anymore about gold going to 450,ha!!This timebomb is lit baby!! Now its time to just sit back and enjoy as one by one,then two by two the money flocks to quality and safety of gold and silver and jumps the titanic("God himself cannot sink her!").This will be bigger than any movie or any book we have ever seen and the implications are so huge many of us cant face them.This is gonna get real messy before it gets better.Good sailing to all of ya.

For the contest"$ 360 per oz",why not i heard it will kill the derivative market.One day not so long from now gold will sail past 2000 per oz and the days of gold for under 300 will be just a long forgotten myth,kinda like 1929.

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 22:19:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76330)

Beginning of the end for Kyoto?

http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20020522/298854.html
Snippit:

Canada's drawn-out deliberation over whether or not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is threatening to upset a carefully crafted, global green agenda. The federal government's decision to conduct Kyoto consultations through the rest of this year makes it extremely unlikely that the protocol will go into effect as an international legal instrument during the Rio+10 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, in late August. This failure will be a resounding setback for the global green movement, which is used to getting its way.

To date almost no one has ratified, and time is rapidly running out as far as Johannesburg is concerned. Canada's decision to be thoughtful is likely to give some other countries pause. Without Kyoto going into force there is very little of substance for the WSSD to consider. Even worse, Canada is demanding new concessions, especially credit for clean natural gas exported to the United States. Canada supplies almost 20% of the gas used by the United States, and that number is projected to rise rapidly. The United States is building a huge fleet of gas-fired electric power plants, many of which will depend on Canadian gas, so this is not a trivial issue. Canada stands to make, or not, many billions of dollars.

Unlike Canada, none of the other industrialized countries is openly discussing the issue. The United States, which, like Canada, is still growing economically, has recognized the absurdity of the Kyoto energy reduction targets and walked away. The European Union is so stagnant economically that Kyoto is not a problem. The former Soviet Union countries, thanks to their economic collapse, are hoping to sell billions of dollars worth of Kyoto credits to Canada and Japan. Japan knows it can't meet the targets, but feels honour-bound to the treaty because of its prestige, so it is quietly hoping it collapses.

The deep message is that Canada is in no position to meet the Kyoto no-growth targets, for which there is no scientific basis anyway, and should reject the protocol. Canada's open consultation process may actually bring this truth out. But in the meantime, Johannesburg is probably a bust. Global environmental governance will just have to wait.

Black Blade: Kyoto is dead. If there were any significant problem and Kyoto would make any difference, then fine, the nations would act. However, everyone is bailing out. Personally I could care less as I stand to make out very well if Kyoto were enacted due to natural gas and nuclear energy investment. One big stumbling block is that most Third World countries are exempt.

BTW, it's almost June and it's snowing here in the Rockies. Hmmm...

DOWNUNDER

(05/22/2002; 22:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76331)

@ MIKAL & " GOLD EXPERT " COMMENTS- - - -

Your message 313 in reply to my 310 post has left me somewhat confused.I thought that civility to other posters was expected @ this forum. If so --why did you charge in like a wounded bull when my smiley :) remark about BB stealing thunder was only & obviously re the fact that no less than 3 posters had remarked on the "same" news report?

The gist of MY post was that this so called expert was now acknowledging that gold may go higher while for the past 2 + years he has been on the dark side(and probably still is)
Surely this was not a "politically incorrect" statement for me to have made?

If the "expurt" had of said that gold was going back down--then his postulations would have been received in a much different manner.I have no respect for HIS opinions & as he is an Australian commentator I was giving the forum some exposure to his track record.

Your opinions are of course just as valid as mine -but dare I say it --not more valid. I have to admit to only being an English speaker so the interpretation of the word "Shanthi" in your closure escapes me. Please enlighten

Black Blade

(05/22/2002; 22:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76332)

Re: Canuck � PM City

http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/banpmcity.jpg
You might check the link for the picture. I think this is what you're looking for. You can set it up as Wall Paper or Background to size it for your screen. Cheers!

- Black Blade

RAP

(05/22/2002; 22:46:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76333)

Thanks YGM

They just settled a law suit that freed up $2.5 million in cash that was in escrow, which expains the increase in stock price. I think the stock offering had something to do with this law suit, but I don't understand this legal jargen they use to explain what there doing.

sector

(05/22/2002; 22:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76334)

@pizz Loved Your JPM Boardroom "Clean-up" guy

But It will get soooo much better [Or worse depending on one's point of view] as time passesSee...at GATA there is this guy...who does a mean immitation of Kurt Jurgens as a submarine commander. He has pumped several "Fish" into JPM already.

This guy has another torpedo in the "tubes"...just waiting for the bearing "Mark" on JPM...just waiting to say the words..."Torpedos..Los!"

As for the future price direction of gold?...GATA has some unique independent indicators [Just developed] which are unrelated to conventional TA.

These indicators point up.

The Fed knows about these indicators.

Sierra Madre

(05/22/2002; 23:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76335)

Just a passing thought...

If a war including use of nuclear weapons breaks out between Pakistan and India, what will such a war do to the capability of India to continue absorbing an important part of world gold production - "offtake"? Last I heard, it was absorbing - buying - about 800 tons of gold a year.

India is the world's largest depository of above ground gold, bar none.

There wouldn't be any aim to have it sell-off a large amount of gold, to pay for its war and rebuilding after the war, now would there? Or just stop buying?

As I said, just a thought. That conflictive situation between those two countries just smells to me, of external manipulation by a third party or parties.

Sierra

Waverider

(05/22/2002; 23:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76336)

Al-Qaeda Uses Gold, Diamonds to Avoid Assets Freeze, UN Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APOxReRRwQWwtUWFlSnippit
"The al-Qaeda terrorist network may be transferring its financial assets into gold and diamonds and using the Internet to circumvent an international freeze on its funds, a United Nations report said.

Experts are looking into ways to ``disrupt and neutralize'' the criminal actions through the Internet, the monitoring group said. The report didn't give any estimates as to the amount of funds that may have been converted into gold and diamonds."

Waverider: Now, is this just information being reported or is there an ulterior motive here of associating Gold with terrorists?

BTW - The Haaretz reports that the Israeli Embassy in Paris burned down early Tursday morning (no injuries).

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2002; 23:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76337)

USAGold

I know what you mean, Mike -- good medieval technology is hard to find, and maintain, these days. My wife's been after me to clean out the moat this Springtime. But I put it off -- nothing pleases me more than the sound of orcs struggling in the night as the muck pulls them under, having failed again to scale our walls.

Good to know you're on Troll Patrol; I was ticked off with myself for spending more than my "allotted 30 seconds" reading them, me the optimist, always wondering if I'll find something redeeming farther down in the post, something that will help me find sympathy for a fellow well-meaning human who's trying to communicate the best he can. ??? As Steve Martin would then say: "Naw-w-w-w-w!"

It makes me appreciate how straight everyone else is around here -- just doing their best to say what they can, and not running a game on others who volunteer to read them. But some people have never experienced the benefit of a collaborative effort to scout new territory, don't want one, and don't know how to be part of one. Just the way it slices out, I guess.

Something about this time that is disorienting, as things begin to move our way. We've been so used to "pushing on the brick wall" and we think we've just seen it move. So I look for people around to help me understand what I'm seeing, and to help me understand my feelings and actions in this time, and my apprehensions for the time to come.

When someone takes cheap, ignorant shots at us -- wastes my time -- distracts me from better understanding an already-difficult world picture -- I guess it kind of sends me around the, uh, limits of my patience. Its hard to imagine these sophomoric "geniuses" as loving fathers trying to protect and raise children in a dangerous world -- they're probably not parents -- and so we're just living different lives in different worlds.

In our neighborhood, about once a year, the same type of guys get drunk and go after mailboxes with a baseball bat, and tip over trash cans. Then they go wrap their car around a lightpole. So be it.

Golden Bear

(05/22/2002; 23:15:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76338)

Sierra Madre (msg#: 76335)

Just another thought...Greetings Sierra,

what if these nukes hit populated areas, and the gold people own becomes radioactive (knowing the penchant for indians to accumulate gold)... might that not spike the POG? I think it was a plot in one of the James Bond films.

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 00:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76339)

Missile-carrying Indian warships sail near Pakistan, air force on alert

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/020522/1/2pydb.html
Snippit:

Missile-carrying Indian naval warships steamed into the Arabian Sea, closer to Pakistan, as military tensions between the two South Asian nuclear neighbours soared, officials here said. "We have moved five frontline ships of the eastern fleet to be cross-deployed to the western seaboard to augment the force levels," Naval spokesman Commander Rahul Gupta said.

Highly-placed naval sources told AFP that four of the vessels are armed with missiles but the spokesman declined to elaborate on the redeployment, which comes in the middle of heightening military tensions between India and Pakistan.

The Indian Air Force, the world's fourth largest, also went on alert as India's mobilisation gained momentum on Wednesday. "We are still not at the stage where we scramble jets but we are now on a state of alert," a senior offical from the Western Air Command told AFP on condition of anonymity.

He said the air force has also cleared some 80 grounded MiG-21s for operational duty due to the increased tensions. The planes were grounded when a jet ploughed into a state-run bank, killing or injuring 23 people earlier this month."We are also redeploying our Mirage-2000 and Jaguars to forward locations from their mother bases," the official said of the fleet of French- and British-built warplanes which adds teeth to India's mainly Russian-built air force.

The Press Trust of India said the air force was also moving its "strategic assets" including ground-to-air-missiles to protect vital installations but there was no independent confirmation of the dispatch.

Black Blade: On the brink of war with over a million troops deployed on the border. It is getting ever more serious as these two nuclear powers are ready to square off to settle it once and for all. It is only a matter of time now.

YGM

(05/23/2002; 00:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76340)

Sierra Madre & Waverider......Paki/Ind Conflict

Re: my previous post of Gold Import Suspensions...Karachi, PakistanWaverider: Now, is this just information being reported or is there an ulterior motive here of associating Gold with terrorists?

*I find the news article is double talk or at least vague. Why suspend Gold Imports just because world prices have escalated? Why would the 3 largest traders say it was unfeasible at this time...Heck the people are clamouring for Gold in both countries now more than ever...Does Pakistan fear cash runs on Banks to hoard Gold? What? I agree it seems something is fishy here and hence my agreement with you Sierra and now Waverider your comment stirs the other side of my gray matter...If the coalition against terror is a set up for a hidden adgenda then why would it not be used as a tool against Gold & respective trade, reporting sales and holdings etc...This may have dire meaning at some point...At least it would assure a deepening of the already existant black market in Gold....

YGM

(05/23/2002; 00:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76341)

BB....

Want to bet the Little Guy...Pak...Lets go the first Nuke...It will be the "21st Century's"..
"Shot That was Heard Round The World"......If they go at it full scale Pak has litttle chance against India w/o first strike mentality....IMHO

Gandalf the White

(05/23/2002; 00:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76342)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

Nomad

(05/23/2002; 00:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76343)

Banks report big increase in bad loans, foreclosures

http://www.uniontrib.com/news/business/20020521-9999_1b21banks.html
Nationwide, nonperforming loans � meaning loans where the borrower has stopped making payments � jumped 28 percent last year, rising from $48.8 billion in 2000 to $62.5 billion in 2001. Bad loans accounted for 9.4 percent of banks' capital and reserves at year-end, the highest level in eight years.

Spartacus

(05/23/2002; 00:32:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76344)

Declining US Dollar vs. Gold

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/may212002.html
Declining US Dollar vs. Gold
By Alf Field
May 21 2002

Under the US Dollar Standard every country that runs a trade account deficit must attract a capital account surplus to offset the trade deficit. It does this by raising interest rates, suffering a decline in its currency against the US Dollar and/or possibly resorting to foreign borrowings. The only country to which this does not apply is the USA.

The USA is able to run a large trade deficit because foreigners are prepared to "hold" US Dollars because it is the Standard. Countries with trade surpluses accumulate US Dollars but they do not "hold" them, they immediately invest them in some form of USA investment. In other words, the dollars return to the USA. This situation will continue for as long as foreigners have confidence in the US Dollar.

Spartacus: Don�t miss this one.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 00:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76345)

Re: YGM

Remember that Pakistan and China are allies. Also, China and India still dispute their own border. This could get much bigger. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 00:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76346)

KPNQwest to file for bankruptcy

Another breaking scandal as KPNQwest implodes.

KPNQwest will file for bankruptcy as 47% owner Qwest Communications (Q) is unable to help out with financing. Qwest Comm. has its own financial problems after having its debt rayed as "junk" by Moody's. Qwest and auditor Arthur Andersen are under investigation by the SEC for "creative accounting". It is expected that Qwest Communications will also file for bankruptcy.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 01:16:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76347)

Gold Lower on Higher USD

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is off $1.40 as the toilet currencies gain on the US Dollar as the Japanese government buys US Dollars aggressively in order to weaken the Yen to stimualte exports. The differnece is that other countries appear to be doing the same. It looks like race for the weakest currency is on.

Meanwhile petroleum is higher on renewed Middle East tensions and the iminent outbreak of war in Central Asia and the very low injection of natural gas in yesterday's storage data report.

- Black Blade

SteveH

(05/23/2002; 01:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76348)

From Kitco

www.kitco.comrepost:

Date: Thu May 23 2002 00:16
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#200346:
Copyright � 2002 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Good morning.
Did you not follow in the footsteps of giants?
"Big Traders" have been quietly buying gold for years with your dollars but very few see. Many paper traders talked of huge quantities of gold "hitting the market" at $280 then $290 and $300. Noone can deliver this paper promise and holders will not find the gold. Only fools trade paper and there is no honor with such nonsense. Soon the "rules will change" and this paper game will steal much wealth. FOA says you play game of guesses.

I say $600 by end of year but not guess.

thank you

Golden Bear

(05/23/2002; 02:15:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76349)

Could the real Another please raise your hand?

Date: Thu May 23 2002 04:10
ANOTHER (INTERESTING!) ID#246237:
Copyright ? 2002 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
�
The poster who posted under my name earlier today was not me. Perhaps this person is following in the footsteps a little too closely!
Thank You.

Around The Corner

(05/23/2002; 02:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76350)

Contest

$$$$$325.00$$$$$

I've been looking at individual gold mining stocks and reading about how they are currently overvalued. I compared that with how precious metal mutual funds are doing and have concluded that TPTB need individual gold mining company stocks to continue to rise in price in order to continue to attract investors into their mutual funds, which is a major vehicle that allows them to manipulate the system/precious metals market from one end to the other.

THEREFORE, to keep everything in balance, TPTB will continue to allow gold to rise in price else they risk scaring off mutual fund investors who fear gold mining stocks have gotten too far ahead of the price of gold.

Make sense?

misetich

(05/23/2002; 03:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76351)

Contest

$$$$322.60$$$$
The US $ will continue depreciating at a faster pace than consensus - being 10 to 15%.
Hedge buybucks provide a solid bottom for gold.

compwiz4u

(05/23/2002; 03:32:05 MDT - Msg ID: 76352)

DROOY going parabolic?

http://www.compwiz4u.com/images/drooy_para.gifThe last time I posted here I mentioned I thought we were starting to go parabolic. I feel more strongly then ever.

If you are interested, it appears that DROOY is starting a parabola that could send it to 10 in a matter of weeks from around 5 today. Look at the above link to a DROOY chart with a Parabolic SAR indicator. The sole dot to the right shows a parabola commencing. Plus at yesterday's open, we had a powerful jump above $5 which appears to be a breakaway gap.

I believe with all that is affecting this market, we could see DROOY at 10 in a few weeks. In 1993 once DROOY crossed 5 it went parabolic and reached 10 within a month...and the underpinnings here are much stronger.

I may be wrong, but this scenario sure looks promising.

(I do own a small position in DROOY.)
(Thanks to Bigcharts.com for the gif.)

18K

(05/23/2002; 03:47:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76353)

POG Guessing Contest

$$$320.2$$$$$

Seems like a good number...

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 04:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76354)

Gold Down On Russian Rumor

Gold dropped 2 bucks on a rumor that the Russian Central Bank would sell Gold reserves. The rumors are false. The Russian bankers announced that tey would be selling "hard currency" only and be buying Gold for reserves. However, the damage has already been done.

Meanwhile, the Japanese government intervention to weaken the Yen is not going so well. With all the aggressive selling of Yen and Buying US Dollars, the Yen has risen a paltry 0.5 Yen. A year ago the effect would have been dramatic. It appears that there are forces in the US who are intent on driving down the USD. Now even Europe is attempting to drive down the Euro and Swiss Franc. The race for the weakest currency is on - maybe Gold will just break loose from paper currency altogether. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

LeSin

(05/23/2002; 05:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76355)

"In Gold Ingot They Trust" say Northern Alliance -- "Keep Your Paper"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2002/05/23/ccom23.xml&sSheet=/money/2002/05/23/ixcoms.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=34383
By Neil Collins, City Editor
(Filed 23/05/2002)

Ingot they trust after the course of history restarted on September 11

War fears send gold to two year high
Picture the scene. It's mid-January in the freezing mountains of Afghanistan and Osama Bin Laden is holed up in the Tora Bora cave complex. US and British forces are preparing to go in for the kill with their bearded chums in the Northern Alliance. But the Afghans won't budge. They want to be paid. In vain they are tempted with paper money. Dollars? Pounds? Or, in desperation, euros?

According to a well-informed report in The Spectator magazine at the time, not until some nice heavy glinting gold bars had been flown up, would the Northern Alliance so much as raise a Kalashnikov in the fight against global terrorism. After all, any old warlord can print money.

Gold, by contrast, is the true global currency and rests on nobody's promise to pay. By the time the British and Americans had learnt this painful lesson, Bin Laden and his merry men had slipped away.

Now the market is learning that ancient lesson too. For the best part of two decades, gold has been in a bear market after it touched $800 in 1979 during the last oil shock.

And thinking about it, if ever there was an epoch likely to produce a bear market in gold, it had to be just such a time of peace and prosperity we have just lived through. The Cold War finished, leading one academic to say that the End of History had arrived.

Gordon Brown, who sold 425 tonnes of British gold at the bottom of the market, was not the only one fooled by this attractive myth.

Well, history restarted on September 11 and gold has been a conspicuous beneficiary. The dollar, the backbone of the world financial system, is looking green about the gills as the recovery in the US economy has yet to feed through to profits or to Wall Street.

Euros and Yen do not look especially attractive. So investors are turning to gold. And what do they find? There is a shortage as no new mines are being built. The nervous citizens of Japan, India and Pakistan, who do not trust their governments, prefer the precious metal as a store of value. This is a bull run with some way to go. Just ask a Pathan tribesman or a mujahideen.

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2002; 05:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76356)

IT�S OFFICIAL: the German 6 month recession is over

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2003000/2003770snippet:
Economic growth has returned to Europe's biggest economy, Germany after six months of recession..
=
Isn't economic forecasting easy?

Hipplebeck

(05/23/2002; 06:07:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76357)

$$$$326.8$$$$

The price will reflect the growing unease investors have for the unstable political and financial situation. It will go much higher when we have either a real breakdown in settlements of debts or a real perception of inflation.

Hipplebeck

(05/23/2002; 06:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76358)

rumors

It looks like all we really need to get this expansion on track again is to have enough rumors at the right time.

Operative

(05/23/2002; 06:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76359)

Tipped thier hand

Watching most gold stocks selling off in the last 30 minutes of trade wed was interesting. A lot of big block trades. From the looks of the US$$ and Euro this am...looks like someone was tipped of the coming rise of the dollar and fall of the euro. Hmmm....

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 06:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76360)

Common Sense

(Excerpted from today's DR) Hello CB(too)"I mean, when you make an investment, you can't know
whether it will go up or down - no matter how smart you
are. All you can do is to stick to the essential rules -
buy good things at low prices.

"Well, that's true in the rest of life too. Work hard.
Do your best. Say please and thank you. Do your
homework..."

"Uh...thanks Dad..."

Your helpful editor...

Bill Bonner

Tommy P

(05/23/2002; 07:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76361)

$$$$317.2$$$$

cheers!!

Pippin

(05/23/2002; 07:14:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76362)

$$$$ 314.50 $$$$

I believe that a little temporary correction will take place.

balzac

(05/23/2002; 07:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76363)

CONTEST!!!

My guess on the two previous occasions has been too
exhuberant and too depressed, this time I'll try for the median. Therefore
$$$$$317.50$$$$$$

Balzac

CoBra(too)

(05/23/2002; 07:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76364)

And my Best to you too - Sir CM -

As Bill Bonner, BTW another great BB is becoming more of a gold bug by the day.

I do like today's action as I like to buy the dips - in particular as I had to consolidate my PM's closer to home and get a good price for the buy back.

- At the same time - I would like to officially thank MK for a special and extremely fair treatment of an order, which may be chump change for some of you - though it is quite meaningful for me - and I'd also like to commend Marie B. with her assistance. - as I'm still trying to figure out, why Austria's custom's authorities are still debating a toll and custom free exchange of bullion and coins in the EU ...

Regards - cb2

kludge

(05/23/2002; 08:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76365)

Contest entry

Betting that through 5/31: no terrorist attacks of real significance will occur, tensions will ease a bit between Pakistan and India, and the Nas/Dow will trade sideways to higher (based on my admittedly simplistic technical analysis). As a result, gold will pullback to $$$$ 308.6 $$$$.

USAGOLD

(05/23/2002; 08:13:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76366)

Various. . . .

All: Randy is going to be gone for a few days attending a wedding, so I'll be tending to forum needs. I want to thank all of you once again for making this forum such a viable enterprise not only for the public at large but USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals as well. We do seem to be moving in a new direction with gold and we at CPM can vouch for the public interest in the metal with orders coming in from Europe, Australia and Canada and the United States. We note that USAGOLDers tend to buy on the dips (our volumes jump dramatically) -- a phenomena which speaks to the education gold advocates and buyers have received here. It also testimony to the belief the buyers have in the metal. Confidence to buy when the price is falling indicates an essential understanding of why one should own the metal. This will drive the trend in the future.

CB2: The pleasure is ours, my friend. You have been a guiding light not only here but in our many personal conversation. Your leadership will be required in the future, so I hope you never stray too far from this forum and firm. Above and beyond that, you are a pleasure to do business with.

Mr. Gresham: Thanks for the kind note. Just for my own edification, I went back to count the number of different posters who posted a word or two yesterday. Far from the ten club insiders controlling the thought processes on this site as charged, I found no fewer than 45(!) posters yesterday (a quick count give or take a few), and that's only the tip of the iceberg. I wouldn't be surprised to find that 60 or 75 different posters put up a thought or two over the past 48 hours. All are welcome. We only ask that the rules be respected for the benefit of all. The sites that have decided to go the No Rules route with some gauzy, ill-conceived notion of Free Speech, usually end up being the stomping ground for various people with their own agendas. Soon thereafter the forum exhibits lack of direction of purpose. After that, it usually degenerates into self-serving, random battle of dubious outcome. It loses its readers and ceases to be of value. We won't let that happen here.

SteveH and Golden Bear: The imposters posing as Another and FOA at the Kitco site should be banned from using those posting handles at Kitco. Of course the owner there can always say "How am I supposed to know that this guy isn't Another?" It isn't Another. The ideas are about as well-formed as jello and are primarily sentences taken here and there from our archives. Believe me, you will know when the real Another returns, and my bet is that when he does post, it will be here at USAGOLD. If you want the real Another (and the real FOA) go to the USAGOLD archives. He is there -- the message uncannily applicable to today's markets.

Gandalf: Thanks for monitoring these contests and staying on top the situation. We all enjoy it very much -- including the staff here at the Castle.

MK

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 08:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76367)

Liquidity

Made a major change to my personal financial situation over last two weeks.

My original plan was an agressive pay down of all my debt except home over next two years. Was anticipating a continual gradual slide into a depression with a couple years of stagflation, 20% decrease in housing, and then an inflationary recovery similar to 70's.

I now feel there is a better chance of an extremely hard crash within 1 year with a potential of extreme unemployment (including myself) within that time frame. This is more of a war/terrorist viewpoint. I do not think most people realize just how bad our economy will get if say we have a weekend where 10 or 15 shopping mallsgo up in smoke, let alone something worse. It will bring this country to it's knees, and I'm not kidding.

Right now I'm refinancing my home to the hilt. In a hard landing the equity will do me absolutely no good, nor will I be able to use it, sell, it, or do anything else but live in it. But I will be able to pay off ALL other debt, and bring my outgoing payments for house/utilities to about 1/3 of my net monthly income.

For as long as I have a job, my excess liquidity (savings) will be divided between purchasing physical (the largest percent), some paper gold stocks, and Euros/Swiss Francs for my fiat needs and invested monthly. The physical purchases we understand. The paper gold stocks are a short term leveraged fiat play that may pay off the mortgage and/or buy more physical, but it is a very minor play. The Euro/Swiss franc is thru an internet Swiss bank and I'm more comfortable with that than I am with US banks in a hard crash (remember Argentina).

This is not investment advice and all should do what they deem necessary based upon their own situation. It's just what I'm doing and it makes sense for me at this time. May change my outlook later this winter, but it's the best I can do to get out of debt, use my current assets to the maximum, and increase my liquidity. Times could get real rough.

Pizz

jlfletc

(05/23/2002; 08:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76368)

Pizz

Interestingly, I've been thinking along those same lines. If one has substantial equity in ones property, why not use it to improve ones financial situation. I've never understood the "get out of debt to the exclusion of everything else" idea. Balance in everything, I say. I've been boosting the supplies and food purchases, along with aquiring the "hard stuff" and the "soft stuff", all the while, trying to restructure any debt to the most advantageous situation. I do ask God for wisdom in all decisions, including financial ones, and He has blessed immensely.

IXOYE

timbervision

(05/23/2002; 09:17:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76369)

gold guess

$$$$$327.60$$$$$ Gold seems to keep making higher highs and higher lows. I see the price continuing to rise bit by bit for the time being.

compwiz4u

(05/23/2002; 09:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76370)

Gold Guess

$$$$$324.90$$$$$ Gold seems to be going parabolic and this seems as good a resting stop as any along the way.

Waverider

(05/23/2002; 10:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76371)

Spot

Gandalf - Spot loves these contests too - getting frisky and just broke $320.00!!!

RobotGuy

(05/23/2002; 10:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76372)

Gold just broke 5 year high! I love you guys!!

RobotGuy.

Chris Powell

(05/23/2002; 10:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76373)

May this be the day of liberation for gold

Thanks to all here who have helped
me understand things and given
support.

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 10:17:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76374)

Whither bifurcation?

The current market for gold (i.e. price discovery) will fail going straight up or straight down. I have no idea which way or when it will happen but fail it will.

I paraphrase.

FOA (old pal)

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 10:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76375)

Debt at giveaway prices:

USBank offering $25,000.00 unsecured credit lines at local branch here.

CM comment: Hurry while supplies last.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(05/23/2002; 10:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76376)

Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 10:21:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76377)

Doublespeak

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002/05/23/states-revenue.htmStates are hurting for tax revenues? Really!

About halfway thru the article we find. . .

Snippit. . . .

Although the U.S. economy is rebounding, some businesses are still laying off employees. Higher unemployment means less withholding of taxes and more state spending on jobless benefits.

and then the ending . . . .

Experts say it may be some time before state tax revenue turns around: The unemployment rate is expected to climb, the stock market is showing no signs of rebounding and businesses are having a tough time raising prices.

Pizz: How can the U.S economy be rebounding if it is going to take time for state revenue to turn around? That implies we're still heading down. Having been in more than one corporate turnaround senario, this is exactly the same type of spin used to keep employees from jumping ship prior to going under. I guess it's just a matter of sematics. They tell us they've got the bilge pumps running (the printing presses), but unfortunately all they're doing is pumping into another hold.

Pizz

YGM

(05/23/2002; 10:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76378)

SPOT /

POLE VAULTING AGAIN!"Go Physical....Go GATA"

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 10:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76379)

Simple logic for physical AU

The ratio of paper to metal, i.e., all paper instruments globally, is way out of balance. PAPER/METAL. Get it.

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 10:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76380)

Pizz

There is a state where tax refunds cannot be met for 500K of its' citizens yet, there is tremendous angst in government about the defeat of a measure (thank goodness) to build a new stadium for a baseball team, it's arrogant athletes, management (not all, don't mean to broad brush) and well heeled ownership. Go figure. BTW, the existing stadium is beautiful.

"When professional athletes build highways we'll build stadiums."

Anonymous, wise central Missouri pundit/citizen

Ag Mountain

(05/23/2002; 10:35:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76381)

Aristotle, thanks ALOT for your post yesterday

I'd never really thought about it like this before. You're right! Thanks for sharing your time. I've saved it to show to a buy-and-hold mining investor friend. MAybe it'll save him some longterm trouble.

Aristotle (05/22/02; 14:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 76260)

Boilermaker

(05/23/2002; 10:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76382)

Kiplinger's call on gold

I got a good chuckle from this article that was passed to me from a friend who knows I'm a "bug" and who is trying to protect me from my folly. I particulary like the "Gold doesn't deteriorate, so virtually all the metal ever mined is potentially available for sale." along with "Increasingly, the safe haven of choice is the dollar." I suppose it's much better to have disappearing currency. God bless those poor idiots who pay for this advice.

Posted on Mon, May. 20, 2002

Is right now a good time to invest in gold?
Advocates cite recent price spurt, global instability. Doubters say demand not there, prefer the dollar

Gold is sparkling. In the past year its price has climbed from $255 an ounce to more than $300.

Mining stocks, whose prices are usually more volatile than that of bullion itself, have done even better. The gold-dominated Philadelphia Gold and Silver index climbed 67 percent from October 2000 through mid-April 2002, and was up 28 percent in 2001.

The rally has emboldened long-suffering gold advocates. Frank Holmes, chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares fund, likes the look of things.

``We have all the makings of a nice, long-term bull market in gold,'' he said.

Several recent developments have aligned in gold's favor. Worried about their banks and currency, more Japanese are buying gold. European central banks have announced the maximum they will sell through September 2004, bringing some predictability to the market. The Sept. 11 attacks and the Middle East crisis have also boosted gold, which is considered a secure investment in tumultuous times.

Jean-Marie Eveillard, manager of First Eagle SoGen Gold fund, argues that owning a small amount of gold is prudent.

``Do I think gold will be higher in the next three months or three years?'' he asked. ``I don't have the foggiest idea. But I think it's a cheap insurance policy.''

Eveillard says that the typical investor should have 3 percent to 5 percent of his or her assets in gold stocks.

But those who expect a reprise of the 1970s -- gold peaked at about $850 an ounce in 1980 -- are likely to be disappointed. That decade was marked by high inflation, two oil-price spikes and the Iranian hostage crisis. Stocks faltered, and gold took center stage.

``The history of gold as an investment is abysmal,'' said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's. ``The 1970s was the only decade in the last century when it beat anything.''

Skeptics argue that there are other reasons for investors to shun gold. Gold doesn't deteriorate, so virtually all the metal ever mined is potentially available for sale. Worldwide demand for gold jewelry has been shrinking during the past five years, according to analyst John Tumazos of Prudential Securities.

Moreover, gold has failed to perform well as an insurance policy during some of the more recent political and financial scares. It barely budged during the 1987 stock-market crash and its aftermath, during the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War and during the 1997 Asian debt crisis.

Increasingly, the safe haven of choice is the dollar.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This column, by editors at Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, appears every Monday.

Graefin

(05/23/2002; 10:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76383)

Who's doing what??

Okay guys ... what are you doing to the gold market? I wake up from a nap, and the POG and POS has done a 180. Who's doing what to whom??
eh?
-Gr�fin

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 10:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76384)

Cavan Man

Re: Unsecured lines of credit.

Does not surprise me a bit. I have two that I've used to buy physical at times, and both are variable rate. I'm using a fixed refi on the house to pay off both. Banks know rates are going up and variable rate loans will be a time bomb for the consumer and will prop up bank earnings (for a while).

The housing refi market may be drying up, because my mortgage holder (where I'm also refiing) called me the day after I got my loan application in and said they would have it done in 7 to 10 days with only an outside walk around appraisal (which means a drive by at best to make sure it's there and standing). Three months ago people were telling me it was taking 90 days. We'll see.

Pizz

Gandalf the White

(05/23/2002; 10:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76385)

YES, Lady Waverider, SPOT is loving it !! <;-)

Waverider (05/23/02; 10:01:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 76371)
Spot
Gandalf - Spot loves these contests too - getting frisky and just broke $320.00!!!
====
Perhaps the early Guessing is a disadvantage, BUT don't wait until the last minute, as the winning Price may be taken!! Please double check your "Guess" from the listing at the bottom of the daily page --- UP to your entry time to see if someone as already claimed your "Guess". Thanks
<;-)

wiley

(05/23/2002; 10:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76386)

Contest

My SWAG is $$$$$337.5$$$$$.The number just came to me after the ingestion of some prescription drugs.

Graefin

(05/23/2002; 10:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76387)

Cavan Man

Is that like Paper, Rock, Scissors??

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 10:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76388)

Frothing Gold Market?

Just heard an analyst on Web Fn respond to the gold question.

Said gold is starting to go parabolic, but too frothy and expects a correction to 288, but then said no one wants to be short gold and long the markets over the weekend due to terrorist/war issues.

More double speak. Does he really think the terrorist/war issue is going to go away next week? Frothy? Heck all I see is fiat and debt in the blender and we haven't even turned it on yet.

Pizz

SteveH

(05/23/2002; 10:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76389)

Coincidence

I seem to remember the day this extended gold rally started was the same day that the Sec Treas. met in secret with the Senate on the matter of the strong dollar. Any one else notice?

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(05/23/2002; 11:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76390)

UNSECURED LINES OF CREDIT!!

Worried people are calling me to do real estate appraisals on their real property after banks/solicitors are willing to borrow money on what the PROPERTY OWNER thinks it is worth! They have all asked these loan sharks, "Don't you think we need to get an opinion from disinterested third party?" They answer, "No. But if it will make you feel better, call an appraiser, let him do the MINIMUM REPORTING TOOL/APPRAISAL (DRIVE-BY)and send it in with your application. They (Homeowners) meet me at the door, thanking me for coming, asking me HOW CAN A BANK LEGALLY BORROW ON WHAT HOMEOWNERS THINK THEIR REAL PROPERTY IS WORTH???????? Scary!!!!

Chris Powell

(05/23/2002; 11:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76391)

GATA delegation stuns London conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1116GATA presentation stuns London mining
analysts conference:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1116

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

ROSEBUD99

(05/23/2002; 11:32:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76392)

RE: Pizz swiss internet bank

is it possible to give the name or web site address of that internet swiss bank you had an account with. I've been looking for an easy way to get an account to hold euros and franc's out of the u.s. . thanks

YGM

(05/23/2002; 11:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76393)

HEAD OF CABAL SNAKE....'ROTHSCHILD'..."Gold Cornering" "Currency Crisis"

http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/banking/rothchild.htmlEXCERPT:

The Rothschilds and the LBMA: The World's Central Bank?

Consider the Rothschild's profound position of influence in the LBMA and the transaction fees they are earning on each and every transaction of treasuries and 42 million ounces of gold transactions DAILY (recently reported volumes of physical, leased, forward sales). . The Rothschild business earns income from "transactions" (including transfers, calls, puts, trades, leases) and one can only begin to imagine the transaction costs associated with last reported trading of over 42 million ounces of gold per day through the LBMA (more than twice South Africa's annual gold production).

Also consider their involvement and influence over monetary policies exercised by the Bank of England and the Bank of France (and possibly the US Federal Reserve System) and in Geneva. Consider the world's above ground gold reserves is roughly 120,000 tons -- with roughly 40,000 tons or 33% held by central banks. How is the remaining "private" gold holdings distributed? Does anyone have such an account? Certainly not the World Gold Council and their statistics. If a single private owner held 5% of world's remaining gold, would that not constitute majority share holdings? If any player could have accumulated, and could afford a 5% holding of the world's gold supply over the last 200 years, it would be the Rothschilds. Could it be that the Rothschilds through their involvement in daily London gold trades are quietly amasing more of the precious metals in their private vaults, while the confidence game of the Central Banks tries desperately to avoid what Soros calls "unsustainable" fiat currency built on unsustainable debt? It was Mayer Amschel Rothschild who kept a secret subterranean vault full of gold beneath the House of Rothschild in Frankfurt in the 1770s (Morton, 1962) .

While the world is led to believe that gold is a barbaric relic of the past, a huge confidence game is being played out in fiat currency markets, illustrated by the events in Asia. In order to maintain confidence in inherently unsustainable fiat currencies and unsustainable debt, confidence in gold must be depressed, given that it is the only alternative store of value. The increasing volume of gold transacted through LBMA reflects the crescendo this confidence game has reached. These large volumes also suggest that gold is trading as currency and not as a barbaric commodity, as the press is apt to suggest. Could it be that the LBMA is being used as a testing ground for the establishment of a new gold-backed world currency system? If so, the Rothschilds are in a position of enormous influence over such a genesis process.

Consider these words of Stanley Fisher (WSJ, Nov. 12, 1997), IMF's Deputy Managing Director: "What is needed at this point in the world's economic affairs is leadership in setting up a SYSTEM more dependable than using IMF bailouts as a guide to the future value of money. Where that leadership comes from is a tough question."

Indeed, will the leadership and system Fisher is speaking come from the House of Rothschild through the central institution of the LBMA? Only time will tell.

***If the Rothschilds, through the LBMA operations, are effectively cornering the world's gold supply they would undoubtedly be in a prime position to benefit from a currency crisis - which they and Soros undoubtedly expect, given Soro's claims that the Asian, and thus by implication all fiat currencies, are inherently unsustainable. This crisis of sustainability is already engaged in Asia and will undoubtedly wash over Europe, England and the U.S. And who recently announced another bailout package? The IMF, of course.*** Cont'd @ Link.

PH in LA

(05/23/2002; 11:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76394)

Gandalf the white

Gandalf:

did you ever make your proposed trip to Layford Cay? If so, what did you find out?

Did you notice that author Arthur Hailey was one of the GATA delegates to the London Mining Conference? Do you follow my drift?

The Hoople

(05/23/2002; 11:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76395)

Hoosier Goldbug

I have sat in the banking suites at Conseco Fieldhouse (fellow Hoosier goldbug!) and heard home lending stories that would make your neck hairs stand up. It is such a huge ponzi made possible mainly through Fannie and Freddie. I have suspected one day the home appraisers will be villified much like Wall Street analysts right now. Total conflicts of interest and enormous bankster pressure to deliver "a good number". There is hell to pay one day. That's why we're here at the forum, right?

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 11:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76396)

@YGM

I believe the system Mr. Fisher is referring to was finally and physically launched in January of this year. My hope is that the USD will seriously consider a like and similar model.

Knallgold

(05/23/2002; 11:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76397)

DROOY?

Ah,DROOY shareholders doing great-but my physical hasn't been diluted ever since I hold it!

Knallgold,kicking paperbutt.

Old Yeller

(05/23/2002; 11:55:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76398)

Captain Greenspan and the debtberg

http://216.46.231.211/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=121960&threadid=121960
Longish post from pooky at PruBear,interesting thoughts about concurrent dollar/derivative management.

Should have let it go in '98,Alan.At least there was a shred of hope to re-balance at that juncture.

Oh well,a longer wait makes it sweeter.

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 12:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76399)

ROSEBUD99

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4221443,00.htmlWas doing research last year on capital movements (legally) out of the US and ran accross this article. It indirectly solved another problem I was researching which was how to have my fiat in Euro's as a US citizen.

Due your own due dilligence.

Pizz

YGM

(05/23/2002; 12:09:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76400)

Cavan Man (05/23/02; 11:53:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76396)

I'm Intrigued!Could/would you elaborate on this?.......thnx!

YGM

(05/23/2002; 12:28:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76401)

At The Moment....BARRICK.....

Lets see $21 million loss for every $1 gain in Spot.....In one week as I write ABX is out approx. $213,000,000.00
give ot take a few Hundred Thousand....That is unless of course "THEY" are one of the many hedgers scrambling to close their book, and have bought a few million oz.
Remember the LBMA alone trades 20 to 40+ Million Oz p/day & what about the other markets?

"GO MURPHY GO" The GATA Dream Team should put a few doubts in the Gold Anal-ysts World....IMHO...They already have!!!

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 12:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76402)

YGM

You dig out yet?

YGM

(05/23/2002; 12:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76403)

@Pizz.......

No not yet :>}
The Grader just did my road in to the Ranch tho...$80 bucks and he stops 40 ft short of driveway...Snow quit after 4 ft. Temp @ + 45 so she'll go quick...I plan to sit here til I get my Murphy/Cafe email...to heck w/ road...too exciting for town trip...YGM

PH in LA

(05/23/2002; 13:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76404)

Reality Confirmation

All:

I have kept an eye on a smallish, totally unhedged mine in British Columbia for years (I used to own some 20 years ago) named Cusac Gold Mines as a bellweather. It had been really beaten down (low of .06 more than once) with very low volumes. In fact, many days there were no trades at all. Other days, 10,000 or 20,000 shares traded. Even during the Washington agreement, there was very little reaction.

Now, in the last week or so, it is screaming. Up 50% yesterday alone with 1.5 million shares traded every day. I think this signalls that the big move is finally here.

Where is FOA? Didn't he promise to return when the rains came?

balzac

(05/23/2002; 13:28:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76405)

THE BIG JUMP!!!

I just checked my records and the last time gold was at $322

was October 13 th 1999, since then it has been in decline.

Can anyone give a particular reason for the spike today?

Balzac.

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 13:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76406)

@Balzac/PH in LA

Balzac:

Short covering in paper with spot filling (rising into) the vacuum or just pure demand more buyers than sellers, or a combination of both????

PH in LA: I've been noticing the same thing in a penny I watch. Flat to no volume for a week, day before yesterday 200,000 shares that traded at the ask (someone playing market maker with a big block at the ask), then yesterday a .07 up move (70%) on near 700,000 shares.

Appears to me a little hot paper gold-bug money betting on a big spike up and looking for the paper leverage on the penny's. Better odds than on line gambling right now, but still a pretty big gamble short term. Physical is much safer. Notice how the big cap golds are moving more in line with a consistant up trend in the metal.

Pizz

Graefin

(05/23/2002; 14:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76407)

Balzac...

http://www.world-prophecies.com/gold-prices.htmScroll down and look at msg # 76391. Click and read GATA message.
Also...was just at Mahendra Sharma's website today (above link) and he says some interesting things about Gold and the next 20 days. Happy reading.
Snippit:
"I had already predicted about Gold for next 3 months that it will reach $350. I again predict about
Gold that prices will keep on rising for next 20 days."

"Check for further predictions on Gold and Silver very soon on my website."

end snips.

Peace, Love, and Gold Bars!
- Gr�fin

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 14:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76408)

Good Ship US of A Maybe Taking on a bit More Water Than Most Realize

With all the talk of war/terrorism, etc. I would normally expect the dollar to be skyrocketing, especially with Japanese buying. IMHO the capital flight our of this country is heavy, because there has to be a lot of entities doing what they always do when tensions increase and that is buy the $. My conclusion is there is a lot of selling into this strenth right now - a lot.

Got to be making a lot of conservative people real nervous right now, along with the derivitive boys.

If anyone wants to know a pure play in tension relief, tell them Au in one hand and your favorite beverage in the other. Then toast the skeptics, unbelievers, and those nice derivitive players that have made the coming crisis possible.

One more rabbit out of the hatful of snakes - maybe, but I think the rabbit's dead.

Pizz

Graefin

(05/23/2002; 14:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76409)

Here's another Mahendra snip...

http://www.world-prophecies.com/newsflash.htmSnippit:
"As I predicted last year and this year that IRAQ and USA conflict may start any time between 12th APRIL 2002 and 12th June 2002 . This will add fuel to gold and oil prices and they can move up very fast. But oil prices will come down from high but not gold prices and gold stocks . Middle-east problem won't get over in fact problem will rise even more." End snip.
Peace!
- Gr�fin

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 14:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76410)

India/Pakistan still heating up

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/020523/1/2q13q.html
Not lookin' real good. Usually after a couple days of heightened tensions between rivals, the world's diplomats usually manage to get things cooled down a bit - hasn't happened here yet. Wonder who's spear-chucker India is anyway????

Snippit:

India rejected calls to engage Pakistan in talks over Kashmir, as Islamabad announced the recall of troops on foreign duty and Britain warned confrontation between the bitter rivals could escalate into nuclear war.

Fears of all-out warfare, meanwhile, wiped another 1.9 percent off the Bombay Stock Exchange, while Pakistan's main bourse remained shut Thursday to avert further heavy losses posted over the past four days.

On the frontlines, fierce artillery battles between Indian and Pakistani soldiers again raged in Kashmir, leaving at least another five people dead and several wounded on both sides.
____________________

I think "Spike" may be renamed "Spiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiike" before all this is over. May start diggin' a real big hole in my yard.

Pizz

Rockgrabber

(05/23/2002; 15:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76411)

Al Qaeda moving funds into GOLD

Across the the news streamer on Fox News I see that Al Qaeda is being investigated for having moved funds into gold and precious stones. I bet they have. I have not seen the article yet, but do look forward to seeing.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 15:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76412)

Many states are hurting for tax revenue

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002/05/23/states-revenue.htm
Snippit:

State governments are facing their biggest budget crunch in 11 years as rising unemployment, a sinking stock market and a weak business climate are leading to huge declines in tax revenue.

Black Blade: The CNBC economic recovery appears to be going well. I guess that the states will just have to raise taxes. Think I will spread my Gold, get naked and roll around laughing wildly��Hmmm��maybe I'll just go to the gym instead.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 15:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76413)

2 FBI Agents Charged With Taking Part in Stock Fraud

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60476-2002May22.html
Snippit:

Two FBI agents passed confidential information about investigations of companies to participants in a stock-manipulation scheme, according to a federal indictment unsealed yesterday.

Black Blade: What's good for Wall Street is good enough for FBI agents right? They probably used to work for The President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT).

Siochain

(05/23/2002; 15:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76414)

Daily Reckoning Article (Partial)

"Euro Soars Against Dollar," says a BBC headline. The
imperial dollar may be the world's favorite currency...
but that doesn't stop it from going down in price. The
euro reached a 9-month high against the greenback
yesterday.

There has been a "significant shift in sentiment," said
a currency strategist at BNP Paribas. Even the
Australian dollar is going up - it is at a 16-month high
against the U.S. brand.

And gold, the world's alternative currency, is going up
too. It's up 13% against the dollar so far this year.

Everyone's talking about gold...still, only 1% of mutual
fund industry assets are in gold. Who knows what would
happen if mutual fund investors ever wanted 2% of their
assets in gold! Or Japanese investors, even...

"Japanese buying of gold is tiny," writes Marc Faber,
"when compared to the country's GDP per capita. Japan
currently imports only about 100 tons of gold annually
for a population of 120 million with a GDP per capita of
more than US$35,000. Compare this to India, which
imports close to 900 tons of gold for a population of
one billion but with a GDP per capita of only around
US$300!

"Compared to India's purchases with a far lower
purchasing power, Japan's gold buying has so far been
very small, but it could rise significantly in the
future and become a price-driving factor in the gold
market."

See: Gold Surprises Wall Street
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2088

"When it comes to gold," says The Poneytailed Pundit,
(some guy quoted in Barron's), "I profess to be neither
standard bearer nor bug. Yet gold still has a place in a
diversified portfolio. I have personally maintained a
position of anywhere from 2% to 4% in a gold fund since
the late '80s."

What would it take to turn average patsy investors into
gold holders? We don't know...but we have a feeling
we're going to find out.

Which doesn't mean we expect the price of gold to
continue rising in a straight line. Most likely, it will
pull back first - giving the patsies and pundits an
opportunity to point to another gold rally that fizzled
out...just like every gold rally for the past 20 years.

Then, the media could turn its back on gold again...
giving the yellow stuff a chance to sneak up on us. Over
to you Eric...what are they saying on the Street of
Schemes?

******

Eric Fry, reporting from New York...

- Stocks bounced a bit yesterday. But who cares? Gold is
the market that everyone's talking about. The Dow Jones
Industrials gained 52 points to 10,158, while the Nasdaq
squeaked out half a percent to 1,673. But so what...tech
stocks are, like, SO 1999!

- The buzz these days is about gold, and the higher its
price climbs, the louder the buzz. Yesterday, the yellow
metal coasted to its sixth straight winning session - up
$2.20 to $318.30.

- Most of the buzz about gold focuses on that age-old
debate: Is the rally almost over or just beginning? No
one knows, of course. But everyone has an opinion. Even
CNBC is spewing nonstop nonsensical blather about the
gold market. From a contrarian standpoint, CNBC's 24/7
gold market coverage is bad news for the gold price. The
good news, however, is that almost all the "experts"
appearing on TV dismiss the gold rally as a fleeting
event.

- In the eyes of most CNBC talking heads, the gold
market's recent strength is freakish - like a two-headed
billy goat. Gold stocks may be more popular than they
used to be, but they are far from popular.

- It's been a lot of fun to watch mutual fund managers
and financial journalists try to grapple with something
as alien as a gold rally. Much of the "analysis" is
comically uninformed. One financial commentator
mentioned gold "ig-nots" a couple of times, when he
meant to say "ingots." We would have to assume,
therefore, that the commentator is an "ig-not-ramus"
about the gold market. He seems to have plenty of
company.

- Gold ig-not-ramuses come in all shapes and sizes. (In
fact, some of us are bullish). But the big financial
institutions that are short the gold market might turn
out to be the biggest ig-not-ramuses of all.

- At least that's the speculation of many professional
gold investors. For several years many gold mining
companies and bullion banks have been selling gold short
in ever-increasing volumes. And that's been a fast track
to "easy money" for some time. But if gold keeps heading
higher, the pressure to close out forward sales and
other types of short positions could become quite
intense. That's why many professional gold investors
suspect that this large "structural short position" in
the gold market will fuel a short-covering rally that
drives the gold price dramatically higher...someday.

- By most accounts, there are more than 800 million
ounces of gold tied up in some sort of derivative
contract. That's more than a decade worth of annual mine
production. Not all of those contracts represent short
positions, of course. Nevertheless, that's a whole bunch
of gold with strings attached to it in some way. It's
anyone's guess how high those strings might pull the
gold price if a short squeeze ensues.

- So who's sitting on a big pile of derivatives? I'll
give you a hint: A bank whose name begins with the
letters "JP." Yes, that's right, our old friend JP
Morgan Chase (JPM) is "big" in the gold derivatives
market. Exactly what Morgan is doing with all of these
derivatives is a matter of acute speculation because the
bank does not provide a single shred of disclosure about
this potentially "material" (read: dangerous) activity.
(For the record, JPM is one of the current short sale
recommendations from my crew at Apogee Research).

- However, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
does shed some light on the topic in its "OC Bank
Derivatives Report Fourth Quarter 2001." According to
the report, Morgan had about $41 billion of gold
derivatives on its books as of December 31, 2001 -
that's almost six times larger than the hedge book of
the next biggest player in the gold derivatives market.

- Furthermore, we don't know anything about how Morgan
has positioned its large exposure to the gold market.
But here's an exciting scenario to imagine: The gold
price rises to $350; JPM gets caught "wrong-footed" in
the gold market. It is losing hundreds of millions of
dollars with each $5 gain in the gold price. Fearing for
its financial life, Morgan runs to the Fed and the
Treasury and whines for help. After an emergency
meeting, the Treasury announces it will "release" some
of it monetary gold supplies from Fort Knox to
"stabilize" the gold price.

- This scenario is just make-believe...of course.

Broken Tee

(05/23/2002; 15:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76415)

**** 326.0 ****

It looks like the powers that aren't manipulating the POG are finding it a tougher roe to hoe.

Broken Tee

(05/23/2002; 15:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76416)

$$$$$ 326.0 $$$$$

Sorry user astericks instead of Dollar signs. A case of selective typing...

Jimbo

(05/23/2002; 15:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76417)

CEO speaks, stock drops

I noticed a report yesterday that GFI's CEO had given a talk to shareholders. Unfortunately, right after the talk shares of GFI dropped precipitously (down 26 cents). Today, despite gold's ascent to $322, GFI went down yet another 3 cents. This seems rather odd. I can't remember a time when GFI's value decreased when the value of gold increased. Can anyone offer a logical explanation?

Siochain

(05/23/2002; 15:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76418)

"Gold is on its way, baby" ....Most Definitely!!!!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=mktwmore&guid=%7BB8AE6670%2DF868%2D4842%2D8CE1%2D329D6C9BDE74%7DPartial
"Gold is on its way, baby," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com. "It's a spurt on the weaker dollar. The gold market has been the sleeping giant and it's starting to awaken."

"The gold bugs which have been long dormant are coming out with the warmer weather. This is a significant trade for gold. Technical people are jumping on the bandwagon here," Flynn added.

If gold breaches $320, it could hit $340 over the next month, he said.

"The market has been held underwater for so long, once you start breaking out, you can easily underestimate" the move, Flynn said. "It's good to have a bull market again."

R Powell

(05/23/2002; 16:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76419)

Gold and Silver

Boilermaker, Kiplingers negative outlook on gold is not unique among investment advisors. We are all of the opinion that gold and silver are underpriced and sometimes forget that the vast majority think otherwise. However, many will notice not only the mining stocks but now also the POG and POS. I think they still will have little to no idea of what it's all about (Alfie) but they'll jump on the rising trend. I still read negative reports every week from different commodity advisors who see the rising price as a chance to short gold (and, forgive them, silver). Many still think the digital camera has ended any chance for silver even though the numbers for photographic use do not confirm this theory. I wonder if the research department analysts at Kiplinger's are compensated according to correct predictions?

Jun gold traded between 315.6 and 323.3 today. The trading range being $7.70.
July silver traded between 477 and 492 today. The range was $0.15.
Remember when those differences were more than the week's trading range?

Pizz, re. refinancing. Agree entirely and we did the same thing last year. If the fit hits the shan that hard that a great number of people can not make mortgage payments in full, how many houses will be repossessed before the banksters realize that they can't be resold and maybe interest only or partial payments are better than nothing. We can pay off the mortgage after hyperinflation raises the minimum wage to $200/hour! Or after POS hits +$20. Which will come first? Anyway, I'd rather a house mortgage than credit card debt. New term- Frothing parabola!

There will be a shortened trading session tomorrow with Comex closing shortly after 11:00 EST. Who wants to be short gold contracts over the long holiday weekend? How many floor traders closed out all shorts today and don't even intend on showing up tomorrow? Maybe I'll sneak a limit order in to sell an option at an outrageous price fishing for an at-the-market order with my offer being the only one around. Hey, it's only paper!

PH in LA, thanks for the heads up on the penny mining stocks. The Investor's Business Daily started the back side of page 1 with "Nothing Glitters Like Gold In Rough Market". It then listed "Best stock groups" with "Metal Ores-Gold/Silver" as No 1 with an 89.2% YTD change.
On the first page was a short statement titled "Gold Express Heading For $320". Word is leaking out.

M.K., I know you don't show the number of site hits (to promote advertising) like other sites do but I'll bet someone keeps count. With POG and POS now acting frisky and frothing, has the castle seen more visitors?
One more day till Happy Long Weekend!
Rich

zorro

(05/23/2002; 16:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76420)

(No Subject)

$$$$336.60$$$$

Siochain

(05/23/2002; 16:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76421)

Pizz & Rosebud

http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?affid=ebA financial letter I like references Everbank as a way of holding Euros ....it seems to be a well established bank in Wilminton DE....FDIC insured (for what that is worth).....thus it is in USA

Just something further you may want to check ...Pizz thanks for the other reference....I want to have some Euro holdings and will investigate

Golden Bear

(05/23/2002; 16:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76422)

More turmoil in JPM...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APO1kjhV0Si5QLiBN"...J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. fired Geoffrey Boisi, co-head of investment banking for the past two years, after he clashed with Chairman William Harrison..."

GB: Like other ships having gone aground recently after their officers have jumped overboard, is USS JPM aproaching a reef?

A Canadian

(05/23/2002; 16:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76424)

IT must be difficult to exist in such an angry state.

Spot is angry. Soon all questions will be answered.

ROSEBUD99

(05/23/2002; 17:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76425)

RE siochain and everbank

I've used everbank and had no problems. I was just trying to diversify out of the U.S. and the dollar without putting all my "eggs in 1 basket" ;)

The CoinGuy

(05/23/2002; 18:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76426)

Rosebud's choice for euro diversification; ALL

Hello all:

Sorry haven't had time to post for awhile but have been monitoring the discussion forum occasionally.

Been developing some new property...

Have used Everbank for some time, and have done well with the Euro CD's(FDIC), you don't necessarily have to own euro bonds...just watch the spreads on bid/ask, because the real rate of return isn't high, you're basically hedging a dollar drop, something gold is also there for...if you want a good mix, I've used PSAFX for a year or so. Take a look at the 1yr chart with 50/200 day moving averages. A yahoo chart can do this for you.

Will try to post more, I saw the other day that Aristotle,(great to see you here) Aragorn, and the Stranger posted all on the same day. It's starting to look like old times around here. Only with a new twist, gold is actually up.

Haven't seen any thoughts from Michael for awhile, business must be good.

Sure miss our friend FOA,

The (physical)CoinGuy

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 18:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76427)

MK, if you'll indulge this....

Sam Snead goes long......GRHSSNEAD DIED AT HIS Hot Springs, Va., home at 3:38 p.m., daughter-in-law Anne Snead said. He had been suffering from a series of strokes that began just after the Masters, although he had been ill even before the tournament.

He died holding hands with his son Sam Jr. and his daughter-in-law.
"He didn't seem scared," Anne Snead said. "I think he was very much at peace."
Snead was raised during the Depression in the backwoods of western Virginia and blessed with as much raw talent as anyone who played golf. He grew up learning the game in bare feet with clubs made from tree limbs, but his swing was a combination of grace and power.
"The golf world is going to miss him," Byron Nelson said. "I was never amazed at anything he ever did."
Phil Mickelson, playing at the Memorial Tournament, said: "I don't think there's ever been a golf swing as aesthetically pleasing as Sam Snead's."
Snead was ageless, the only player who won sanctioned tournaments in six decades, from the 1936 West Virginia Closed Pro to the 1982 Legends of Golf, which he won with Gardner Dickinson as his partner.
Snead was famous for his straw hat, cocky grin and homespun humor. A three-time Masters champion, Snead had been an honorary starter since 1983. He would jaunt to the first tee, show off that flowing, flawless swing and then tell stories outside the clubhouse.
This year was different.
Snead's son said he was recovering from strokelike symptoms, and for the first time, he needed someone else to tee up the ball at the Masters. The ceremonial shot flew into the gallery and struck a fan in the face, breaking the man's glasses.
Although he didn't feel well, Snead never considered passing on the tradition of hitting the ceremonial first drive.
"Anyone else wouldn't have done it, but Sam was tough as nails and very determined," Anne Snead said. "He was never a quitter."
Snead wrote two books on golf. "How to Play Golf" came out in 1946, and one of his swing tips was to "take it easily and lazily, because the golf ball isn't going to run away from you while you're swinging."
He also wrote "The Education of a Golfer" in 1962.
"Some of the things I didn't have to be taught as a rookie traveling pro were to keep close count of my nickels and dimes, stay away from whiskey and never concede a putt," he wrote.
For all his victories � independent record keepers place his total at 160 � Snead never won the U.S. Open, which haunted him the rest of his career.
He was a runner-up four times, but his most infamous U.S. Open occurred in 1939 at Philadelphia Country Club.
There were no scoreboards on the course, and Snead thought he needed a birdie on the final hole to win the U.S. Open, when all he needed was a par. Playing aggressively, he hit his drive into the left rough and never recovered, making a triple bogey.
"That night, I was ready to go out with a gun and pay somebody to shoot me," Snead said later. "It weighed on my mind so much that I dropped 10 pounds, lost more hair and began to choke even in practice rounds."
He had three other chances � a missed 30-inch putt on the final hole of a playoff in 1947 against Lew Worsham, a three-putt from the edge of the 17th green at Medinah in 1949 to lose to Cary Middlecoff, and a 76 in the final round at Oakmont in 1953 to finish six strokes behind Ben Hogan.
The Masters was different.
Snead was the first man to dominate at Augusta National. He won the Masters for the first time in 1949, the year club members began awarding a green jacket. Snead won again three years later, and earned his final Masters victory in 1954 after beating Hogan by one stroke in an 18-hole playoff.
He also was a three-time winner of the PGA Championship during the match play era, and he made it to the finals two other times.
�Watching Sam Snead practice hitting golf balls is like watching a fish practice swimming.�
� JOHN SCHLEE
U.S. Open runner-up in 1973 "Beyond his achievements, we will always remember him for the style and grace he brought to our sport," PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem said. "When you think about a short list of champions who have made an indelible mark of the character and growth of our sport, San Snead is on the list every time."
Snead claimed his only British Open at St. Andrews in 1946, during a time when few Americans traveled across the Atlantic Ocean because of the cost. Even a victory would not guarantee they could cover their expenses.
He returned to St. Andrews with other past Open champions for a four-hole exhibition in 2000, and recalled his first trip to the home of golf. When the train arrived alongside the Old Course, "It did not look to me like it had ever had a machine on it."
Snead turned to the man next to him and said, "What abandoned course is this?"
"Once I got on the golf course, I respected it more each time I played it," he said.
Born May 27, 1912 in Hot Springs, Snead needed no formal teachers to develop the sweet swing that lasted a lifetime.
�I've just watched a kid who doesn't know anything about playing golf, and I don't want to be around when he learns how.�
� GENE SARAZEN
On a young Sam Snead "Watching Sam Snead practice hitting golf balls is like watching a fish practice swimming," said John Schlee, a U.S. Open runner-up in 1973.
The late Gene Sarazen once said of a young Snead, "I've just watched a kid who doesn't know anything about playing golf, and I don't want to be around when he learns how."
In his first professional event, the 1936 Hershey Open, Snead hit his opening tee shot out of bounds. He hit the next one out of bounds, then drove the green, 350 yards away.
Snead joined the PGA Tour in 1937, driving out to California with only $300.
He won at least one tournament every year on tour except one for the next 23 years. His biggest season was in 1950, when he won 11 times. No one has won that much since then, although Tiger Woods came close in 2000 with nine victories.
Snead first met Woods during an exhibition in California when Woods was 6.
Woods couldn't clear a narrow stream in front of a par 3, then played out of the shallow water and made bogey. Snead beat him with a par, and was duly impressed, talking about Woods and his favorite subject � the swing � years later.
"You watch his backswing, and it comes right down on that same line," Snead said. "A lot of fellows come over the ball or dip around. Hogan said, �I got something I'll take to the grave,� but I knew what it was. It was the right arm that would point toward the flag. You're not going to get off track very far. And that's the same with Tiger."
The Masters was Snead's personal playground, with three victories, nine finishes in the top 5 and 15 finishes in the top 10. Snead won the Par 3 Tournament in 1974 when he was 61, but he was ageless in so many other tournaments.
Advertisement

Including the Senior PGA Tour, which he helped launch by winning the inaugural Legends of Golf in 1978 with Gardner Dickinson, Snead won tournaments in six decades.
He won the Greater Greensboro Open a record eight times, the first in 1938 and the final one in 1965 when he was 52, the oldest man to ever win on the PGA Tour. That also was the last of his 81 victories � 17 of them after turning 40.
In perhaps his most impressive feat, Snead became the first player on the PGA Tour to shoot his age � a 67 at age 67 � in the second round of the Quad Cities Open in 1979.
Two days later, he shot a 66.
Snead is survived by two sons, Sam Jr., 58, and Terry, 49.

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 18:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76428)

USAGOLD 76427

Courtesy of Bloomberg news.

R Powell

(05/23/2002; 18:18:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76429)

Technical advice needed

I remember from years ago that POG was caught in a $320 to $340 trend for a long, long time, bouncing between the two. Finally it broke out above $340 causing a great roar from bugs everywhere but alas, this breakout was a trap and within days POG was hammered down again. POG then not only fell below $340 but immediately sank below the $320 support. I was among many who lost fiat on that one.
Since that $320 had been support for so long, I thought it would now be a hard resistence to break. Is POG now so strong as to dance right through old technical stops or do old resistence points have a limited effective lifetime? I believe POS has clear sailing for some way now that that awful 475-480 level has been cleared.
BTW, I place great faith in fundamentals like supply and demand but since so many place faith in and place trade orders according to perceived technical analysis, I'm forced to try my best to understand it. It's almost a self-fulfilling prophesy simply because so many trade accordingly. However, why something works is one puzzle, that something does often work needs noting. This reminds me that I must soon sacrifice a plump Rhode Island Red Chicken for entrail reading to divine the POG for the contest. When is the new moon?
Any technical outlooks???
Rich

RobotGuy

(05/23/2002; 18:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76430)

Graefin -- -- -- -- Re; Mahendra Sharma

We can all make predictions as easily as this 'famed' M.S. The only reason I say this is because I followed up on a couple of his 'predictions' to date, and as soon as it was obvious they were false, they were removed from his website. I have always been a sceptic about these things, and Mah... has only managed to give me more solid ground to be a sceptic. I'm sure we all know that any type of U.S. involvement in any offensive is going to tickle the POG, but it seems lately that it is going up as a result of uncertainty in the U.S. dollar strength, and is not military related.
I respect you Graefin, and I am not in any way trying to belittle you, I am just sharing my past experience.

For the books, I would like to make another ludicrous prediction.

RobotGuy, (your astrological advisor...haa whatever):: Many people have been talking of the liklyhood of a terrorist attack in the United States, and it seems to me that this is not a far fetched idea. Why do they hate the Americans? Is it religion? No, of course not. It's pure jealousy of the luxurious lifestyle that Americans have afforded themselves through years of technological advancement and overall general prosperity. There will be an attack on the U.S., and it will be a simultaneous devastation of various landmarks and buildings, including innocent individuals. This attack will take place before July 04, as many fear this date, and utmost government protection will be focused on this date. The attacks will appear to be a surprise to government officials, as they have already acknowledged that July 4 is a possible date. Government officials and intelligence officials will foible one major attack within the next three weeks, and this will afford Americans some comfort as they will feel their government is doing their job of investigating the possible attacks. There are Islamic groups currently in the United States arranging for these attacks which will take place about three quarters of the way through June. A large shipment of Agricultural Ammonium Nitrate will be hijacked and go missing around the end of May, beginning of June, this will be an obvious sign of a planned attack. Agricultural Ammonium Nitrate needs some refining before it can be used as a high explosive, generally the prills are coated with a clay like material to desensitize the explosive nature of this militarily and industrially used explosive. After these attacks the POG will dip significantly, and then rebound to Twenty year highs as America declares a new state of war against Iraq for it's support of terrorist regimes.

RobotGuy'.. This my friend, I see as a likely scenario.

ROSEBUD99

(05/23/2002; 18:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76431)

RE:COINGUY

Thanks, I switched from bearx to psafx last nov. Have done well there. trying to complete my basket of gold and currencies since its looking more and more like the dollar is finally done. Besides who knows when those terrorists will hit again. I know its a matter of when , not if. They picked 911 last time, will it be another "named" date like memorial day, independance day, or something from their culture??? We can't know, so we must be prepaired.

sector

(05/23/2002; 18:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76432)

@RPowell About the Trend in POG

Yesterday, to confirm a thought, I merged the ECRI's FIG [Future Inflation Gauge] and the average monthly price of gold into a single chart for the last year.

First, the ECRI guys are a big think tank [The Fed watches their stuff like hawks] and their inflation numbers are "Politically Correct" in so far as they dutifully show negative inflation. But the interesting thing is that there has been an aggregate RISE in inflation of 14% over the past year...about matching some currency growth values. So we can say that the ECRI shows a growth in inflation of 14% [Even if there is quibbling about the starting LEVEL].

Now, when I overlaid the pog there was a very close correlation.

What this means is that pog is following the rise in FIG inflation. So if one wishes to track the future price of gold one simply examines the FIG chart.

Predicting future inflation is a function of the growth of monetary aggregates M1, M2 and M3....as well as tracking the already "Inflated" monetary aggregates "Bubblized" in the Real estate bubble and those "Bubblized" in the equity bubble.

"Bubblization" is not the Fed's favorite word.

Considering the above...pog goes up from here. Ask yourself "What mechanism(s) can stop the rise in inflation?". If you can't find an answer then pog goes up.

The biggest problem is deciding exactly how much to load onto the gold train.

sector

(05/23/2002; 18:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76433)

@CavenMan Sam's Passing

Fine post Sir!I knew we had more in common than metal.

We all should be so luckey on our last day.

Golden Bear

(05/23/2002; 19:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76434)

RobotGuy (msg#: 76430)

I must respectfully disagree..."...It's pure jealousy of the luxurious lifestyle that Americans have afforded themselves through years of technological advancement and overall general prosperity..."

Does not Europe, Asian countries, Australia, New Zealand and Canada not enjoy the same technologically advanced lifestyle? Why aren't those countries singled out for terrorist attacks directly?

Look a little deeper Sir and you will find the truth, what devastation American foreign policy has perpetrated across the world for the last 50+ years, under the radar of the American people in general.

Please do not get the impression that I am anti-American, as I enjoy the western lifestyle as much as anyone, and know that the American people are a very friendly people.

But politicians are a different beast, and one to be watched carefully...

For your reference, I submit this link: www.copvcia.com

Regards,

GB.

Gandalf the White

(05/23/2002; 19:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76435)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlALERT !! Previously chosen value !!
===
compwiz4u (05/23/02; 09:21:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 76370)
Gold Guess
$$$$$324.90$$$$$
===
Please RE-GUESS Sir Compwiz4u ! (The Hobbits think that you are indeed fortunate to be able to try again, as they are thinking that their "POG Guess" will be far higher sometime early next week.)
===

BTW, Note that Sir THX-1138 was the first person to become BRACKETED, and that it was also the DUPLICATE Guess of Sir Compwiz4u !
<;-)

=====================

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002.

In step with GATA motto, Sir MK offers "FREE GOLD", (IF your Guess is correct) and also FREE SILVER (if your Guess is very near correct) ! Prizes are a Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the winner, and also a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf each to the runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

3rd UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
===
Thanks for all the new Posters jumping into the Contest at this early stage! Now stick around and let us all hear from you more often.
<;-)

Clint H

(05/23/2002; 19:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76436)

Contest

$$$$329.40$$$$
The market will try to push past $330 but will be held just below the 30s.

vermillion

(05/23/2002; 19:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76437)

lurk no more

$$$$327.2$$$$
The adjustment gold needs now will be offset by the amount of press the subject of "possible nuclear war" is getting.

P.S., some day here soon, China is going to have to weigh in on the subject of it's neighbor's bad behavior. Any ideas on their play?

RobertG

(05/23/2002; 19:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76438)

Gold Contest

$$$$321.50$$$$
Gold is closing early Friday, 12:05 Eastern time so I do not see much activity before a long weekend. Hope I am wrong.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 19:34:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76439)

"Bone Pile" Grows by 416,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B01DE0100%2DD79F%2D42E1%2D8A27%2DE7610AE6B16A%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

Jobless claims for the week ending May 18 were 416,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 425,000. See the full report. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch.com had anticipated a level of 412,000.

The growth of unemployed at a rate of over 400,000/week is recessionary. The long touted economic recovery has not materialized. The recovery cannot happen unless there is corporate profit growth and as long as the "Bone Pile" grows there are fewer consumers to prop up economic growth. Just part of the vicious cycle.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 19:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76440)

Al-Qaeda Uses Gold, Diamonds to Avoid Assets Freeze, UN Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APOxReRRwQWwtUWFl
Snippit:

United Nations, May 22 (Bloomberg) -- The al-Qaeda terrorist network may be transferring its financial assets into gold and diamonds and using the Internet to circumvent an international freeze on its funds, a United Nations report said. The report was produced by the monitoring group set up by the UN Security Council after the Sept. 11 attacks in New York and Washington blamed on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network.

Al-Qaeda is estimated to have assets worth $5 billion, Agence France-Presse cited Nicolo Pollari, the head of the Italian secret service, as saying at a conference in Italy this month. The report didn't give any estimates as to the amount of funds that may have been converted into gold and diamonds.

Black Blade: The timing of this article is "curious". Although the article does point out the importance of having "anonymous" assets in every portfolio. It is difficult for anti-freedom and totalitarian regimes to focus on "the people" if their assets are well hidden in hard anonymous assets.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 19:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76441)

Valero to Cut Refinery Output, Expects `Slight' 2nd-Qtr Profit

Golden Bear

(05/23/2002; 20:03:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76442)

Further to my post: (msg#: 76434)

Oil: Where it's all heading...Interesting links with graphs of future oil production declines and more:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/dec2001_files/background_is_oil.html

and,

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/01_29_02_what_next.html

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 20:04:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76443)

@sector

I play with Hogan Apex woods 1,3,5. They are thirty years old and real beauties! Remember the speed slot in the toe? Not sorry to say I am a real "throwback", a genuine PITA at times. Appreciate your many fine posts I do.

(05/23/2002; 20:08:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76444)

USD AXINDEX DROPS TO 96.44

USD AXINDEX FALLS TO 96.44

At the close of gold trading today, May 23, 2002, in New

York the U.S. Dollar AXINDEX fell to 96.44. The value of

the U.S. Dollar, the world's reference and reserve currency,

was 96.44 mg of gold.

On May 3, the USD AXINDEX stood at 99.69 and looking back

to Nov 26 2001 the USD AXINDEX stood at about 114.14.

July 27, 2001 saw an even higher USD AXINDEX of about

117.06 mg of gold per one U.S. Dollar.

Conversely in January of 1980 when the price of gold hit

its all time high, the AXINDEX stood below 40 mg per one

U.S. Dollar.

In many respects the world situation is much graver

and more precarious than it was in 1980.

The U.S. Treasury as well as all private U.S. citizens

should take the opportunity now, while the gold value of the

U.S. Dollar is still a relatively high 96.44 milligrams,

to buy as much gold as they can.

Since the USD is the world reserve currency and reference

standard for all other currencies the U.S. Treasury can

never have too much gold. It should accumulate over the

short and long term as much as it can.

Private U.S. citizens should do likewise for their own

safety and security particularly in these troubled times.

AX

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 20:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76445)

Some Talking Of Gold At $350

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020523/15/2q1s3.html
Some analysts now say gold may break $325 resistance, may even touch $350 over next 6 months with demand to continue amid still-weak USD, tensions in South Asia, Middle East, danger of further terrorist attacks in U.S., although others believe it may peak for now around $325; "money is being moved into the bullion market," says Scotia Mocatta's Peter Tse. Gold market, traditional safe haven in times of war or high inflation, has become attractive to investors disturbed by slump in equity markets, low-yielding USD deposits.

Black Blade: Tonight Gold is down on expectations that the Japanese government will again engage in desperate measures to weaken the Yen for the benefit of exporters. Of course the US will likely just raise tariffs again in response for certain industries like steel and probably autos. The USD is likely to weaken as well as Germany is now claiming to be out of recession. If this is so, then the Euro should climb easily against a weakening US Dollar considering the deepening US recession. Therefore Gold should bounce much higher.

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 20:17:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76446)

The opportunity for gold @$350

If we see $350 we are likely to see $3500. Remember folks, this isn't 1979. Lots has changed since then. Calls for gold at $350 demonstrate a fundamental lack of intellect.

Cavan Man

(05/23/2002; 20:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76447)

@Black Blade

Didn't mean you friend. I am referring to the analysts and experts who are running at breakneck speed trying to catch up with the bandwagon. Kind regards....CM

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 20:31:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76448)

India, Pakistan exchange shelling and war threats; Six dead

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/143/world/India_Pakistan_exchange_shelli:.shtml
Snippit:

SRINAGAR, India (AP) Nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan exchanged deadly shelling and threats of war Thursday, with New Delhi saying it ''accepted the challenge thrown by our neighbor'' and Islamabad warning of retaliation that ''would not be good for India.'' India and Pakistan have massed about 1 million troops at their frontier since December. Tensions escalated last week after suspected Pakistan-based Islamic militants raided an army camp in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir, killing 34 people mostly soldiers' wives and children. On Wednesday, India's navy moved five warships closer to Pakistan after Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told hundreds of soldiers on the Kashmir border to prepare for war.

Black Blade: This could accelerate into full scale war before long.

DOWNUNDER

(05/23/2002; 20:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76449)

WELL PUT GOLDEN BEAR - - - -

Living in Australia one is able to view from afar with some clarity, US govt statements & policies that are mindbogling in their arrogance. I like & am for the American people but I can't stand most of your politicians or policies. I have for most of my life admired Israel & its against all odds survival & brave deeds. Now something has changed. I cannot support a regime that steals land ,bulldozes houses & will not allow co-existance with dignity. Here in Australia you cannot say anything against the Isralei policies without being branded a Jew hater or anti sematic which has in effect stifled any meaningful debate. Trouble is of course that it's a minority of fanatics that have stolen the Jewish agenda.

The rash of terrorist warnings coming from the US administration is IMO nothing more than an attempt to deflect attention from the state of the economy & other issues. Terrorist attacks are direct karma for perceived or real affronts and have been happening for most of this century all over the globe. Some say that Oct 11 was "allowed" to happen to give the Bush Govt an excuse to implement anti democratic
Laws at home in the US and to get the country on a "war footing". Doesn't seem too strange to me, as patriotism is a sure vote winner. Wasn't Pearl harbour set up for the same reasons?

I fear for the American people as I feel that a "terrorist" strike will be inevitable, though it may well be an engineered one. Then war will be declared on Iraq -after all this is the well stated intention. Bottom line is that most of the rest of the world are NOT in favour of the Bush camps push for war & do NOT support the rhetoric which is provocative & dangerous. The unrelenting support for Israel at the expense of truth & justice for the other side is another problem that has frozen the US administration into being one eyed. We all know that the "Jewish" lobby has the ear & pocket of the politicians so they can't & will not speak out. What a shambles.

Black Blade

(05/23/2002; 20:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76450)

U.S. government says biggest polluters are hard-rock mining companies and coal-burning power plants

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020523/ap_wo_en_ge/us_toxic_pollutants_1
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Hard-rock mining companies and coal-burning power plants are the United States' largest toxic polluters, responsible for nearly two-thirds of the poisonous contaminants in the nation's air and water, a federal agency said Thursday. In its most comprehensive inventory of pollution and its sources, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said the mining of hard-rock minerals � gold, silver, uranium, copper, lead, zinc and molybdenum � was responsible for the largest amount of toxic pollutants in 2000. Coal-burning electric generating plants were the next largest.

Four mining states, Nevada, Utah, Arizona and Alaska, again had the highest volume of toxic releases.

Black Blade: Before anyone gets carried away, the "Toxic Waste Inventory" standard was changed under the Clinton-Gore administration. "Toxic Waste" now refers to all non-ore bearing rock as waste. So this is really nothing but a publicity stunt created by rabid environmentalists. Notice that no mention is made of coastal cities that pollute the oceans with their sewage or the rural states that must take the refuse or more populous regions.

Trapper

(05/23/2002; 20:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76451)

To All

Is there anyone out here on the board have the same feeling about this gold run I do. This is too easy! I don't own a lot for mining stocks but I look at the portfolio and it is up a $1000.00 a day on the average. This ain't right. Gata is fighting hard but have had any serious victories over the cabal. JP and the boys are still short tons and don't seem to worry. We are up against the most powerful money in the world, and they don't seem to be breaking a sweat. I have a feeling the kitchen sink is headed our way. I have some cash left but I'm not sure what to do. I think they will make the last stand to let their boys out without a nick. They won't let the US and the world fail.It might be new reporting laws some of which I have a little knowledge of and you won't like them. As I said I belive even our host will not sell you 30 US 20.00 coins for cash, too much fear now. One of my pals who is way up on the inside said they might start a roumor that a large shipment of coins coming in from Europe consisting of all types of coins, got placed ( by accident) next to some radioactive materials and picked up the radation. They won't find this out until they are mostly sold and can't seem to find them. I hope they remove the plumbing from that kitchen sink before it heads our way. Live small.
RJ

Golden Bear

(05/23/2002; 20:59:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76452)

DOWNUNDER (msg#: 76449)

Thanks, and cheers to a fellow AUssie!

By the way, my wife works in the legal system of which a large number of its magistrates and QC's/barristers are Jewish. In and of itself, this is no big deal, but as you say, it is impossible to question any matter related to the Jewish people local or abroad without being villified, even when the facts prove suspect.

Nomad

(05/23/2002; 21:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76453)

Federal Reserve Predicts S&P 500 to Drop to 876

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2002/el2002-16.html
Snippit :

Predicting the future

Making predictions about the stock market can be a humbling experience. Still, it may be worthwhile to consider the model's predictions for the year-end 2002 level of the S&P 500 index. Given a current 20-year government bond yield of about 5.5% and employing the end-of-sample volatility measures for stocks and bonds, the model predicts a P/E ratio of 24.1. Applying this multiple to the S&P's estimate of $36.34 for reported earnings in 2002 yields a predicted value of 876 for the index--about 20% below the current level. Different predictions would be obtained if any of the model inputs (for example, the bond yield or the earnings forecast) were to change significantly over the coming year. Also note that the market has deviated from the model's predictions for sustained periods in the past.

Conclusion

Over the long history of the stock market, high P/E ratios have been transitory phenomena. Campbell and Shiller (2001) show that, sooner or later, the P/E ratio has tended to adjust back towards its long-run average. These adjustments have taken place mainly through changes in stock prices (P) rather than through changes in earnings (E). While Campbell and Shiller do not expect a complete return of the P/E ratio to its long-run average, they predict poor returns from stocks in the coming years. The valuation model described here says something similar: we would not expect the P/E ratio to return to its long-run average because the bond yield and the volatility measures are now different from the past. Nevertheless, given the current earnings forecast, the model predicts a downward adjustment in stock prices.

Nomad : Ouch !

canamami

(05/23/2002; 21:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76454)

I rebuilt some of my gold position today....

...hence the POG has started to fall. Plus ca change....

Pizz

(05/23/2002; 21:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76455)

@Trapper

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/wallybently052402.htmlUnless you're a pure phsycopath, nearly all get these feelings after a run up I know I do - it's what makes the zig and zags in the charts. It's why I don't trade. Tendency is to submit more money at the high's and then when you get a dip the opposite occurs and you sell out in desperation at the lows. You will win more than you'll lose when you do the opposite of your feelings.

I don't think we'll get the kitchen sink thrown at us. The risk of fighting all the positive fundamentals by going short or selling gold in mass right now is just too great.

The shorts are trying to minimize losses. Trying to protect the short position would be disasterous if any number of one time events happen right now, and there are so many that can't be controlled that the odds of one or two happening at any time is quite probable.

Read the above essay next door. Walley Bently is a bit wordy, his thoughts a bit unorganized, but he does nail down pretty much all of the basic bullish fundamentals for PM's.

We'll see dips and sharp pullbacks as the weak take profits and the traders take advantage (a faucet or two but not the sink), but I've never seen fundamentals this good for ANY asset class. If we deflate, gold goes up. If we inflate gold goes up. If we stagflate gold goes up, If we go to war gold goes up, and lately, even if we go to sleep gold goes up (smile). Once a trend starts, it doesn't turn overnite, and when they do turn, you almost always have a second chance to get out at or near the previous highs.

Hang in there, gold's hitting the upper end of the trading channel right now, it may run above tomorrow, may even run a bit higher than we think and start a new channel, but it will eventually pull back, but this is not a top by anymeans!

Pizz

Carl H

(05/23/2002; 21:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76456)

Trapper Re: Too Easy

I guess there are a number of questions that should be asked.

First, how much gold does the cabal have left.

I think the answer to that is quite a bit, depending on how you define the cabal. Look at the EU holdings, and the 1700 tons that is in West Point, but encumbered. (I question the existance of the rest of the US gold reserve.)

Second, how successful has this scam been?

I think that there can be no doubt that this scam has been the most successful scam in history. It has allowed the cabal to loot the rest of the world for about 15 years.

Third, if they still have gold and the scam has been successful, why not continue it?

In a word, debt. In order for the people in the US to benefit from this, they must have cash to spend. Until recently this money was coming from massive amounts of debt creation. Problem is that everyone here is up to their eyebrows in debt (including individuals, corporations, and the government). Hence, they cannot benefit from "strong dollar" policy. Hence, it is time to try to releive some of that debt burden through a moderate dose of inflation.

Hence, my conclusion is that what we are seeing is an attempt at a controlled retreat. Where they will try to stabilize the POG at a higher price. I belive it is a risky strategy because the demand for gold tends to be a function of the derivative of the price of gold. So if people see the price of gold rising, the retreat might get out of control. Should that happen, expect a much higher gold price, cash settlements at a price specified by the governemnt. In any event, don't expect anyone to go to jail for this.

Finally, since the game has been so successful, expect that it will be played again in future years with gold and other commodities.

sector

(05/23/2002; 21:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76457)

@CavenMan Just Call Me Mr. "341"

...and that's not for my target pog...Add an order of magnitude for that......it's for a rather longish double eagle [Or ace if one prefers] on a par 4, Dec 24th 1975. The fairways were hard, wind behind and my experimental swing [A cross between Big Bird, Daffy Duck and Miller Barber (Mr. X)] was working...at least for two holes. Guys from Minnesota witnessed.

The clubs were Haig Ultras with a persimmon head driver.

The local newspaper ran a big splash on Christmas day, picture and all. I was engaged in a auto-related personal injury case at the time and my lawyer screamed over the phone "Are you CRAZY?". "How are we going to show you were hurt?" [I actually was].

The opposition didn't read the paper that particular day. Too busy opening presents.

There ought to be a "Double Eagle Club". It would be fun to welcome Tiger Woods into it ...someday. He gets to buy dinner (;-)

compwiz4u

(05/23/2002; 23:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76458)

DUPLICATE Guess of Sir Compwiz4u

REF: Gandalf the White (5/23/02; 19:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 76435)

It is certainly an interesting coincidence regarding my sharing the POG guess as well as having it bracketed along with Sir THX-1138. I'll have to go back and read some of his musings to see if we think alike.

Anyway, Sir Gandalf the White, thank the Hobbits for their prescience and I certainly agree with their assessment as the parabolic move I thought was about to begin, commenced shortly after my posting.

So, given the Gods have blessed me with a second chance, I will resubmit closer to the May 30th midnight deadline.

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 00:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76459)

Pakistan primes its people for war

http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,2763,721312,00.html
Thousands of volunteers deployed as tension grows

Snippit:

Pakistan put its capital city on a war footing last night as tension with India in the disputed state of Kashmir increased. The military government called out civil defence volunteers and cancelled all leave for Islamabad officials. Food and fuel stocks will be monitored in preparation for a war which many analysts on both sides of the border fear is imminent. First aid, firefighting and rescue courses will be held in Islamabad in the coming days. "All departments and ministries have been directed to update their contingency plans immediately to deal with any emergency situation," the state news agency said. Thousands of civil defence volunteers have been deployed and hospital beds reserved for emergencies. Boy scouts and girl guides will help with first aid. Thousands of tonnes of wheat and sugar are being kept as an emergency reserve.

The two armies exchanged heavy artillery fire across the line of control dividing Kashmir yesterday. Although Pakistan's army is regarded as better trained than India's, it is vastly outnumbered, and it is considering recalling the 4,000 soldiers who make up the biggest contingent of the UN peacekeeping mission in Sierra Leone. "This is one of the many options," a defence official said. "We are also considering recalling 500,000 reserve soldiers and officers to face any situation in the event of a war with India."

Islamabad is also expected to recall many of the 12,000 soldiers patrolling the border with Afghanistan, who include commandos involved in the search for al-Qaida members in the sensitive tribal areas. The Pentagon admits that this will harm the hunt for al-Qaida and Taliban remnants. India and Pakistan have hundreds of thousands of soldiers along their heavily mined border, and India has moved five warships closer to Pakistan.

In Islamabad, military analysts say the Pakistani generals, fully aware that their forces would be outnumbered in a conventional war, are ready to use their nuclear arsenal. Dozens of scenarios have been played through and analysed at army headquarters in Rawalpindi. "My view is that for Pakistan it would be much easier to use the nuclear option, even though it would be totally suicidal," said the retired Lieutenant-General Talat Masood, a defence analyst. "I think they [the generals] are very prepared now. I think the mood is changing and they are more or less completely ready for war," he added.

The US ambassador, Wendy Chamberlin, who returns home next week, said that war was a real prospect, and private discussions to ease the tension were in progress. "We think it is very serious. We are very concerned about the threat of war," she said. She predicted more terrorist attacks. Threats by Islamist militants have forced the British high commission to send home many diplomats and their families.

Black Blade: War preparations being made? US Ambassador returning to the US? Nuclear option is an easy decision? This is not looking very good.

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 00:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76460)

India threatens to scrap Indus Treaty

http://www.dawn.com/2002/05/24/top6.htm
Snippit:

GUWAHATI, May 23: India could take diplomatic action by scrapping the 42-year-old Indus Water Treaty, thereby choking the flow of water to Pakistan, Water Resources Minister Bijoya Chakroborty said on Thursday.

"If we decide to scrap the Indus Water Treaty, then there will be drought in Pakistan and the people of that country would have to beg for every drop of water," Chakraborty said in Guwahati, the capital of Assam.

Any decision on whether or not to abrogate the 1960 treaty, which was signed at the behest of the World Bank, will have to be taken by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and his cabinet.

"There is a meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission in New Delhi next week between both countries, but we are yet to decide whether to go ahead with the meeting or cancel it," Chakroborty said.

Black Blade: This gets more "interesting" by the hour. The threats are flying faster than ever. Looks like war soon. The nuclear option cannot be discounted. The families of US personnel have already been withdrawn from the region. It appears that the storm clouds of war are upon Central Asia.

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2002; 00:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76461)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 00:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76462)

PM writes to Bush; India has no faith in Mush

http://www1.timesofindia.com/Articleshow.asp?art_id=10791287
Snippit:

WASHINGTON: India has signalled to the United States and much of the world that it has completely lost faith in Pakistan's General Musharraf and cannot do business with him. Despite public pronouncements to the contrary, Musharraf is also rapidly losing Washington's trust, except perhaps his last bastion, the State Department.

The Indian view, communicated both directly and indirectly, means a return to normalcy in the region may now depend on Musharraf's exit, or what Indian officials say is "the unlikely event of him having a complete change of heart and forsaking terrorism as an instrument of state policy."

Black Blade: A peaceful solution is now out of the question. Not enough trust for meaningful discussions. Break out the iodine amphioles.

sourdough

(05/24/2002; 00:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76463)

balzac (5/23/02; 13:28:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 76405)

Why the spike?
Embree who runs the RBC precious metals fund which is up 120% was interviewed on CBC business world program.
He mentioned a rumor (and only a rumor) of derivitive problem at a European bank.
Could have been something evolving out of the GATA crew at the European gold conference (the rumor).
Anyway he said it will be a violent ride up and down but a $500 gold price is not out of the question due to derivitives.
(best effort memory not gospel)

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 00:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76464)

The exchange initially blamed technical problems

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2003000/2003981.stmPakistan shuts stock market

Snippit:

Pakistan's stock exchange has been shut after heavy trade, over fears of a possible war between India and Pakistan, caused its trading system to shutdown.

Black Blade: A prelude to war. When war breaks out, the markets shutdown. Remember Wall Street on 9-11?

Belgian

(05/24/2002; 02:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76465)

@ Rich (TA/TI - POG)

POG does behave *mechanically* since 1993 (326$-bottom).
The chart from 1993, till now shows little emotion and corresponds nicely with classic TA patterns and numbers.

Examples in 1993 > 2002 : 326$ is the exact horizontal median-line of the whole pattern. 4 times 326$ : 1/ '93 bottom 2/ support in '96-'99 decline 3/ sept.'99 WA-spike 4/ present target. Can we agree all that 326$ is (was) a Very important (mechanical) price for the precious ?

Another reason for the label "mechanical" is the enormous amount of Fibonacci co-incidences in this '93-'02 pattern.
Next fib. targets after the recent 322,2$ are 334,2$ and 341,6$.

POG is working on its retracement-mechanics, from the 1996-415$ high decline to 1999-253$ bottom. Once the 326$ has been taken out decisevely, we charge most probably through the 354$ barrier as a knife through butter and the next target is then {(415$-253$)x1,618}+253=515$.

BTW : Silver pattern is a beautifull *Dome* with '93-'01 basis and '98 ceiling (7,8$). The dome-pattern is completed and will be left behind for the building of another (parabolic-?) rise ???

The POG pattern '93-'02 (decline+bottoming+rise), is strongly supported by a positive divergent "momentum" pattern. That means that the intrinsic force of POG has been building up, already during the final stages of the decline and coiled further during bottoming with explosive consequences when breaking out of a giant (capping) triangle.

Mechanical POG behavior will confuse all analysts more and more up until all emotions can break free and Gold goes for ots final RE_VALUATION !

Achilles

(05/24/2002; 04:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76466)

$$$$326.9

The heat wave in India is a catalyst for frayed nerves. This will lead to increased violence in Kashmir. Uncertainty about terrorism and continuing unrest in the West Bank just add more fuel to the fire that heats POG. Price could blow through $325 by middle of next week

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 05:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76467)

Business Comment Why the gold price surge has further to go

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=30074237&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

WHAT are investors to make of the continuing surge in the gold price? Yesterday it soared to its highest level in more than two and a half years. Agency reports told of fund managers, concerned over rising tension on the India-Pakistan border, scrambling for a sanctuary for their cash. But it is not just the Kashmir question that has pushed the metal higher. Anxiety over another terrorist attack in the US and continuing weakness in the dollar have brought the precious metal's safe-haven qualities back into focus.

Black Blade: The Paki-Indian conflict is heating up, the USD has gained on some currencies but weakened against the Yen in spite of Japan's best efforts, and the threats of terrorism (especially this holiday weekend) are high on the list. Holding an equity position could be tough going into the weekend, so why not Gold?

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 05:09:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76468)

CENTRAL BANK MAY SELL PART OF ITS GOLD RESERVES

from Pravda:

The Central Bank may sell a part of its gold reserves at the end of the year in order to compensate the monetary expansion that occurs in this period every year, Sergey Ignatyev, head of the Central Bank, declared at the conference devoted to the Finance Ministry's activity and its role in the social and economic development of Russia.
According to him the Finance Ministry often transfers funds for budget enterprises without proper control. Ignatyev stressed that the ministry and the bank should take measures to prevent a sharp growth in inflation and the dollar exchange rate. He was quoted as saying that "daily contact on this issue should exist, so that we know about the revenues and expenses of the federal budget".

Black Blade: This statement from Pravda was refuted not long after as the statement was meant to refer to the selling of "hard assets". Of course, the POG dropped back some before the statement was revised. However, the anti-Gold club will glom onto this.

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 05:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76469)

Study sees improved silver demand in 2002 recovery

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/nn22300376.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 23 (Reuters) - The amount of silver bought for use in industry, photography, jewelry and coins is expected to rebound smartly this year after flagging in 2001, bolstering silver prices as the world economy recovers from its slump, according to a study of silver trends released Thursday.

Black Blade: This is based on the assumption of an economic recovery. Sorry Charlie, it will rise in sympathy with Gold and declining supply � not an economic recovery � at least not this year.

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 05:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76470)

War fears push up gold prices

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=10773913
Snippit:

MUMBAI: Gold prices in the country, the world's largest consumer of the precious metal -- were at a ten-year high on Thursday on sustained fears of a possible all-out war between India and Pakistan, dealers said.

Black Blade: Increased Gold demand in India and Pakistan was a "no brainer", under the circumstances.

The Invisible Hand

(05/24/2002; 05:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76471)

$$$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$$$$ "Tertio" repetita placet

http://www.arts.cuhk.edu.hk/Lexis/Latin/This was my entry for the February 2002 contest. I had repeated it in the last contest under the heading "Bis repetita placet" (Free translation: it's good to repeat things twice). My Latin is not so good as to be able to know what's "third time" in Latin. The dictionary in the URL says that "tertius" is third. So "tertio" as in "tertio non datur" (Free translation: this is an expression from the theory of argumentation (logic?) when you discuss two alternatives and then say "there is no third way/alternative�)
may not only be the adverb, but may perhaps also mean "third time�. Corrections of the Latin are welcome.

As for the corrections of the guess, the Master of the Contest had suggested in
Gandalf the White (02/17/02; 22:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70287)
that I may wish to modify the rather large value ?
(MAYBE HIGHER ?) <;-), he said.

The discussion of my February 2002 entry was as follows: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

This discussion has of course been put this week in a new light by recent market action. ("Mama, what I am gonna do with all this money? I am an egoist, remember?"). Moreover, this recent market action was the reason why this new contest was launched. And who knows how today and next week may amplify the recent market action.

But for the sake of repetition, I�ll stay with $8,752. I do however this time hope to loose the contest as this amount is much too low in the present circumstances.

R Powell

(05/24/2002; 05:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76472)

Bloomberg's picks

Bloomberg financial morning television (6-8 AM, EST) reported that Morgan Stanley has a buy recommendation on some mining stocks. They picked Barrick, Newmont and Placer Dome! Have they seen the XAU and other references to rising mining stocks and simply picked the largest companies? Barrick? Have they researched at all? Do they understand hedging and its excess, overhedged? Actually, these might still be reasonable picks as many will simply buy the biggest of the bunch. Perhaps soon ( a year or two?) we'll see some finality to the question of too much forward selling. ?
Rich

R Powell

(05/24/2002; 06:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76473)

Belgian

Thanks for your technical thoughts!
If POG can get through $326, then clear sailing. This sounds good to me and I'll employ this 326 level to secure some paper profits before re-entry (hopefully after POG temporarily bounces off 326). I'll enter the battle again with positions with more time. Damn thing about this game is the time-wasting value loss. Physical doesn't shrink over time does it?
I'm especially happy to hear the "Dome" and possible parabolic future of silver prices. I don't see much to really hassle POS until about $7.38 which was the Feb. 5, 1998 interday high thanks to Warren Buffett. We'll see!
Rich

R Powell

(05/24/2002; 06:44:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76474)

sector

Many thanks for the info about the Future Inflation Gauge and also for your thoughts concerning the unwinding (if possible) of the huge short gold situation.
Yes I was refering to Delta Hedging and visible exchange positions when I said there is no one "trigger" number like 354 for a derivatives meltdown. No matter when or where (OTC) the huge lease, sale, and gone was done, IMHO all positions can be offset or hedged against fiat (though perhaps not against physical)loses short of a LTCM type Russian default.
If indeed the physical must be returned, then, depending on how much (5,000-15,000 tonnes) and when (renewable leases?), it may be near to impossible, as you say, to unwind these positions. Still, Michael has stated that he sees only a 3000 ton central bank drawdown over these past years. Is there more and where from? Maybe gold has been used like natural gas was by Enron. Its been sold and monies collected in full while at the same time bought with a future delivery date on margin. This buy-sell position is near equal (some carrying charge) BUT the full sale price was collected immediately while only a small deposit (margin) holds the future promised delivery. However, no gold has been consumed yet assuming that all buys and sales are done with dummy corporations (as Enron did) or with other unwitting players not actually using the metal (as those who believe they have have physical in storage and even are paying storage fees!). There may be any number of ways this scam can be set up but how much physical has been actually consumed? Probably enough to cause a four digit POG (and three digit POS!!) but I'm sceptical of predictions of complete market melt down from unresolved, unreturnable physical metal. Could it be that the non-transparent nature of some of these transactions has led investors to conclude that huge amounts of gold are gone when in fact they've just been shuffled back and forth for financial purposes?
All this is nothing more than opinion (wild speculation?) of course. Maybe we'll receive some real answers soon.
Rich

Belgian

(05/24/2002; 07:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76475)

POG

POG rises, now only take place on COMEX. LBMA is not adding to this rises (just following and confirming). Difficult to jump on conclusions to this phenomenon. Is it a US anticipation on a lowering of the dollar (index) ? Will the 326$ - 354$ zone, be opened when the dollar-index shifts into the 112-108 zone ? Or are we witnessing a controlled POG-rise, together with dollar rise (consolidation) as to give oxygen to all the wrong derivative positions, facing expiry dates ? And is the Moscow / Deutsche Bank / Wall Street, axis, in one line, regarding Gold and the dollar exchange rate...for the time being ? POG does behave so very nicely orchestrated. Paper contracts (expiring) are adapting to the realities of more physical uptake versus declining physical availability ?

Has everyone seen all the golden ornaments in the Russian palace where the nuclear treaty Bush/Putin was signed ?

Pizz

(05/24/2002; 07:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76476)

It Just Keeps on Commin'

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,2276,46184,00.html?TOKYO - Japanese mega-bank UFJ Holdings Inc said today it suffered a net loss of 1,227.4 billion yen (S$16.6 billion) in the year to March due to accelerated bad loan disposals

That's a lot of fiat up in smoke.

Pizz

luckypierre

(05/24/2002; 07:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76477)

Gold price guess

$$$$314.5$$$$
I think there will be a slight dip due to profit taking, as well as a lack of bad news on the world scene.

The Invisible Hand

(05/24/2002; 07:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76478)

correction

The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 76471)
... So "tertio" as in "tertio non datur" ...

Must be "tertium non datur".

Slowman

(05/24/2002; 07:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76479)

Gold Guess

$$$$$$$ 328.40 $$$$$$$
Should be close unless WAR breaks out somewhere. This is a tough market to be short in.

Cavan Man

(05/24/2002; 07:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76480)

@Belgian

I wouldn't put too much stock/confidence in what comes out of Russia. The Wall is down, the Party has changed but the people remain the same. Geography will play a big role in the future of geo-political relations despite cyber connectivity IMHO.

cwa

(05/24/2002; 08:04:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76481)

Price guessing contest

$$$$316.5$$$$
I feel a consolidation in price coming, unless there is war braking out in the next week.

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2002; 08:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76482)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002.

In step with GATA motto, Sir MK offers "FREE GOLD", (IF your Guess is correct) and also FREE SILVER (if your Guess is very near correct) ! Prizes are a Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the winner, and also a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf each to the runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

5th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
Note to Sir Hand, I knew that I could "count on you" ! <;-)
--
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ luckypierre (05/24/02; 07:20:08MT msg#: 76477

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365

===
Thanks for all the new Posters jumping into the Contest at this early stage! Now stick around and let us all hear from you more often. I am off to the "field" to do some ORC control for the day, but will return at the setting of the sun. Keep them postings coming !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2002; 08:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76483)

Emmergency Note to Mr. G. !!

Please contact BIG John at the Hobbits "Liar" as your ship may have come in. Got ta RUN !
<;-)

neer-do-well

(05/24/2002; 08:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76484)

contest

$$$$342$$$$

Dat in motion tends to stay in motion and gold is in a up motion and by then it should be there, according to my calculations.

Graefin

(05/24/2002; 08:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76485)

RobotGuy...msg 76430...Mah.........

RobotGuy...I never knew you cared!!!!! Danke sehr! And here I thought I was nothing more than a mere thorn in the side of everyone who read my posts! hehehehehe! Seriously...I find astrology fascinating, but I would have to look at more data than one person's insights to make a well-educated and balanced decision on where to invest my funds. Please - - - my funds are much to precious to me to listen to only one person. And...if I did...the only person I'd have to blame is myself. Um, it's kind of like that story of some yayhoo representing him/herself in court...You (and no, not you, personally) have a fool for a client! But thanks for the reality check! How sweet! You care! :)
Hey...off the subject...you fix robots, yeah? The kind of robots who assemble cars? If that's the case...my husband does the same thing you do. He is also known as "Mexican" here in the forum.
Well...Tsch�ss! Have fun counting all your Geld that the higher prices gold is bringing! Know I am! :)
- Gr�fin

YGM

(05/24/2002; 08:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76486)

Gold Barbarous Relic...

Yeah Right......That's Why Gold Funds have Outperformed any Market...Like First Eagle SoGen Gold fund. Up almost 100% in 12 months....Buy the Physical and hold it....paper is for risk, and we usually need risk to make $$ to buy physical, so diversity wins always.....

YGM

(05/24/2002; 08:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76487)

Daily Reckoning......

Excellent Report.....THE DAILY RECKONING

PARIS, FRANCE

FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2002

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

*** Stocks up...gold up...Gold stocks UP,UP,UP!

*** Even Al Qaeda is buying gold...

*** What went wrong with Jay McDaniel's $1,000
recommendation? See below...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Wow! Gold rose again - $4.50 - taking it to its highest
level in 2 and a half years. Two gold funds are the best
performing mutual funds so far this year. How long will
it be before the trend followers notice the trend?

The gold mining industry is tiny. It's total
capitalization is only about $80 billion - less than
that of a single major tech company. And profits in the
mining sector are extremely predictable and extremely
volatile...when the price of gold rises above the cost
of product, gold miners' profits rise straight up. And
when profits rise, P/E ratios fall - making the mining
stocks cheaper!

All of which makes for an exciting situation in a real
gold bull market. Pretty soon the patsies and yahoos
begin to notice. The next thing you know, they're buying
gold mining stocks as they once bought dot.coms - that
is, impetuously and recklessly. Even a little bit of
this buying sends the stocks flying.

But we're still a long way from there. The public has
not yet caught on to gold, has no fear of falling stock
prices, and no clue about he credit bubble or the
history of managed currencies. As Eric mentions below,
only 1% of mutual fund assets are in gold so far...and
some gold stocks are still selling for little more than
book value.

And now comes a UN report that Al Qaeda uses gold to
protect its finances from tracking and seizures! If we
had a conspiratorial bent, we'd worry that central banks
might want to take gold out of circulation - not because
it limits their power to inflate their money supplies,
of course, but because it provides financing for
terrorists and money launderers. After all, the
Roosevelt Administration did it in the early '30s....

Central bankers, terrorists, and Mr. Market
himself....all are likely to have surprises for us....

Eric, what was Mr. Market up to yesterday?

*******

Eric Fry in New York...

- The rally that can't possibly happen keeps happening.
Gold advanced again yesterday, for the seventh day in a
row. Improbably, the increasingly precious metal jumped
another $4.50 to $322.80 an ounce. And for you folks who
still invest in stocks...the Dow gained 58 points to
10,216, while the Nasdaq popped 24 points to 1,697.

- The stock market may be sluggish these days, but the
bars and restaurants in Manhattan seem to be hopping.
Yesterday, I strolled past the Bryant Park Caf, on 42nd
Street and people were lined up for about 100 feet to
get into the place. The adjoining bar was packed as
well. From the looks of things, consumers are continuing
to put the pedal to the metal, consumption-wise.

- The following three headlines appeared in close
succession yesterday on Bloomberg.com: "Tommy Hilfiger
Trounces Expectations", "Krispy Kreme Beats Forecast"
and "Sales Soar at Nvidia." Apparently, almost everyone
in the country is hanging around the house in their new
jeans, eating donuts and playing video games...somehow,
consumers keep spending even though businesses aren't.

- Turning back to gold, how come the price of this stuff
keeps going up? Don't the buyers know that it is
"overbought," according to JP Morgan's technical
research analysts, and that "a substantial correction
will soon be inevitable."

- Apparently, the investors who are buying gold are not
privileged to read Morgan's research. Or maybe they do
read it and don't care, because they are more concerned
about the next three years than they are about the next
three days.

- Gold has always made its own rules. It soars to $800
per ounce if it feels like it and it takes a nap for 20
years if it feels like it. But after all is said and
done, gold tends to hang on to its value better than
most of the paper imitations. And that's probably as
good a reason as any to buy the stuff.

- Maybe gold is rallying because the average mutual fund
manager - who is holding only about 1% of fund assets in
gold mining shares - thinks it's time to take a more
courageous position, like, say, 1.5%.

- Or maybe gold is rallying because the Asian central
banks that hold a mere 3% of their assets in gold are
starting to think that 4% might be a more prudent
allocation. Certainly, no one would blame the banks for
lightening up a little on greenbacks. Or maybe (and this
is my personal favorite) gold is climbing because all
those swashbuckling short-sellers are starting to sweat
a bit.

- We don't know any more or less than JP Morgan's
technical analysts about where gold is heading next. We
do know, however, that selling gold short is becoming
much less fashionable among gold mining companies. In
fact, "de-hedging" is the latest trend.

- This scramble to de-hedge is a source of potent demand
that could propel the gold price higher. Earlier this
year, for example, South Africa's Anglogold said it
would reduce its hedge book, and the miner is carrying
out its promise.

- "We have, since July of 1999, said that we thought
gold was oversold and underpriced, and we have been
running our hedge down progressively," Anglogold CEO
Bobby Godsell said recently, "In the last quarter, we
reduced the hedge by about 1.5 million ounces, about 120
percent of the gold we produced in that quarter. In
current market circumstances, we intend to continue to
run our hedge down."

- 1.5 million ounces is no small potatoes. It exceeds
Japan's total gold imports during the first three months
of the year. And Japan's imports are growing by leaps
and bounds.

- Clearly, gold and gold stocks are less contrary
investment ideas today than they were in March of 2000.
Still, it may be a while before investors rush to sell
Microsoft in order to buy shares of Newmont Mining.

(If you're investing in gold yourself, we recommend John
Myer's Outstanding Investment's as the definitive
resources on the subject. For reasons why, please read
the following report.)

Tidal Wave of Cash
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/OST/MentionProfits

goldquest

(05/24/2002; 08:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76488)

Long Weekend In U S

Gold should start climbing like a homesick angel!

Jimbo

(05/24/2002; 09:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76489)

Farrell on 100-year bear market

FYI. CBSMarketWatch's Paul Farrell had an interesting article this morning titled "The '100-year bear market' portfolio." In the article, he talks about investors needing to accept the fact that 7-8 percent annual returns may be the best they can expect. He also sets up a hypothetical future portfolio for readers that he believes will work in a "sustained bear market." Guess what is at the top of his list? Gold, of course. But then he goes on to say: "But with $7 trillion invested in all funds, and just a mere $3 billion in all gold funds, the sector has never been of much interest to passive investors. No matter how dire the consequences, it's unlikely to motivate investors to sell existing funds to buy gold funds." Here's the link to his article:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={6204B31D-88DF-4BEA-AC66-EC2C9E79D82D}&siteid=mktw

Henri

(05/24/2002; 09:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76490)

Contest entry

$$$$354.00$$$$
The little guys who got burned in dot coms will soon take notice that this will be a similar or better ride and they will all swear to get out at the top this time! :-)

Waverider

(05/24/2002; 09:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76491)

Banks' bad loans increase 47% to record 27 trillion yen

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20020525a1.htmSnippit:
"Despite coughing up a record 7.57 trillion yen to cover credit costs, Japan's major banks were unable to make a dent in the size of their bad loans, which shot up 47.4 percent from a year earlier to a record 27 trillion yen, according to fiscal 2001 earnings results released Friday.

The volume of loans to shaky or failed borrowers stands at 6.48 times the banks' combined profits from core business operations."

sector

(05/24/2002; 09:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76492)

@rPowell Central Bank Gold

...there's alot less than meets the eyeWhy? Double counting for gold "Loans" and "Swaps".

See...the world's absolute gold reserves are badly misrepresented by the current IMF accounting practice of a lessor and lessee BOTH claiming ownership of loaned and swapped gold.

The IMF's own accountants refused to accept this defacto implementation at their October 1999 Santiago Conference. That conference was devoted almost wholly as a gold swap workshop [All detailed examples were selling never buying gold]...clearly a plan to manipulate pog by a kind of giant shell game.

What is the physical deficit [How much gold is "Loaned"]? Reg Howe thinks 10,000 tonnes not including the 3,000 tonnes of durable producer hedges[Forwards].

What this means is that central banks who loaned their gold [Which was then sold] are going under water with each move upward in pog. They are, in a sense, like Barrick....a slave to an unlimited upward risk. it is becoming more and more obvious they will never get their gold back at anywhere near what they loaned it for.

They are reduced to a "strategy" of hope. Hope for "something" that will lower the demand and hence the price of gold. They are losing the gold war.

The most potent weapon in the war against the cabal has been the truth. It is what they can never deal with effectively.

In this regard, Bill Murphy is smashing them into the ground in London with revelations that the JPM gold "Derivatives" book is really a pure loan book. The names [Countries] to whom JPM reloaned the gold are causing big problems. Terrorist nations.

At one time JPMs loan book was worth $60 Billion [Avg pog of $260]. Do the math. That is many thousands of tonnes of gold "Borrowed" from...whom?

The US Treasury of, course. Therefore, the US treasury has none left according to GATA's source. Not a bar.

Don't be fooled by the recent "Reduction" in gold derivatives reported to the OCC. The BIS gold derivatives have gone up by comparable amounts thus it is fair to infer that JPM just swapped their liabilities with their buddies in the G-10.

It's called the socialization of risk...something The Master of the Universe is good at....Unofficially it is called the "All boats sink theory".

Look for the rats.

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2002; 10:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76493)

Wow!

What an amazing bunch of posts in the last 24!

If these are the "amateur" economists, I wonder what the "professionals" have been off in a corner doing all these years. ;-)

It also gives me hope that this will not be a "bullish idiots" board on the way up, like the Internut tech bull ones were. The seeking of, and working together on, insights that peek "behind the curtain" of the biggest economic picture. Willing to listen to others' ideas brought to the table, and work with them (Some -- but not all -- of those conspiracy theories, are likely to be true) but not swallow anything whole, or unwisely. Ability to "think like a criminal", without becoming one. ;-)

What a gift we've been given. Thank you, all.

balzac

(05/24/2002; 10:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76494)

WHY YESTERDAY'S SPIKE.

SOURDOUGHThanks Sourdough, you sound like a Canuck.

I hold RB precious metals: but I missed the interview with John Embry and the Euro Banks deriv. problem.

Also I had discounted GATAs influence in causing the spike,
perhaps mistakenly.

Embry runs a good fund , no Barrick and holdings of gold and
silver certifcates also some oil and gas.

CHEERS

Balzac.

balzac

(05/24/2002; 10:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76495)

SECTOR'S LAST

Sector,

If JPM borrowed the gold from the US Treasury, Then
the US dollar is really in trouble.

Let's hope not, the world couldn't take that much of a hit.

Balzac.

Pizz

(05/24/2002; 10:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76496)

Balzac

Wouldn't the fact that if the entire US gold reserve had been "Enroned" by the previous administration to support and saturate the world with overvalued $'s go a long way in explaining the massive hedging and derivitive manipulations we've always suspected?

"Deep Storage" has always bothered me. My guess is it's synonym might just be "unmined hedged". If the dollar tanks real bad, we may find out. Wonder if the FED and or Treasury will try a buy out of a couple of our major hedgers before this is all over. I would think there are a few Enron type fronts out there that could be put to good use, heck, the CIA probably has a few hundred idle corpotations offshore that could use some activity.

Pizz

GoldnSilver2002

(05/24/2002; 12:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76497)

$$$ 360.00 $$$

$$$ 360.00 $$$/per oz,in my opinion the dow crash has begun!

Pizz

(05/24/2002; 12:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76498)

Dollar Woes -

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2920dollar.htmlDanger for the Dollar
by Lothar Komp

Pretty good summary of what may be ahead for the dollar. It's the very suttle last paragraph that tends to make old Indian Fighters start lookin for feathers . . . .

Snippit. . . ..

Outside of stocks, takeovers, and bonds, there isn't much else left to serve as a magnet for foreign capital. The U.S. economy has blown its wad, and the impending crash of the dollar can no longer be averted by peaceful means.

_________________________________

My guess this time around is that a good chunck of the flight to quality fiat may not get to this side of either pond. I feel that there is a lot of $ selling into what should have been an increase in the dollar this week due to the saber rattling, etc. Smart BIG MONEY probably needs (or wants??) an India/Pak conventional escalation or another blow up in ME to be able to sell $'s into strength.

We've had a real nice orderly increase in POG over the last couple weeks. Almost too orderly, course those derivitive programs in a few supercomputers could set up a sell dollar/ buy gold program smoother than a glass table top. . . . .

Pizz

Carl H

(05/24/2002; 13:24:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76499)

Gold Reserves

The more I think about the US Gold reserve being gone, the more it makes sense.

First, consider the encumberment of the West Point coin melt gold. It would seem illogical to do this if deliverable gold was still available.

Second, there is a precedent in that the Defense Logistics Agency has been selling off stockpiles of a number of commodities. Platinum and Palladium come to mind, and of course they have "gone to the wall" on silver in that they have none left per their own statistics.

I am inclined to agree with balzac that this is very bad news for the dollar.

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 15:09:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76500)

30 states in probe

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/24/news/companies/wallstreet_probe.ap/index.htm
Probe of possible conflicts of interest at brokerage houses gets wider.

Snippit:

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) - Securities regulators from 30 states have joined a task force investigating alleged conflicts of interest among stock analysts at Wall Street brokerages, an organization representing the regulators said.

Black Blade: Remember asbestos? Remember Tobacco? This is just the beginning of a wide-ranging assault on the Pied Pipers, Pimps and Trolls of Wall Street.

steady

(05/24/2002; 15:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76501)

does the U.S.A. have the gold they say they have?

i think that james turk work may hold the key in answering that question
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/turk121200.html
and

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/turk010802.html

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 15:20:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76502)

RED-FACED SEC TARGETS TWO-FACED ANALYSTS

http://www.nypost.com/business/42978.htm
Snippit:

The Securities and Exchange Commission may not be as sleepy as it's looked lately. Outmaneuvered by savvy New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who wrestled Merrill Lynch into a $100 million settlement to drop charges against its two-faced analysts, the SEC has a score to settle. And analysts could soon feel the brunt of SEC ire.

The SEC's enforcement group is looking at analysts who traded against their own recommendations, a top flight legal eagle and securities law professor said. The SEC began a formal inquiry into market practices concerning analysts' conflicts of interest on April 25 and sources familiar with the agency say that analysts' trading practices are in the cross-hairs. "Analysts who recommend a stock and then dumped their own shares could be brought up under anti-fraud provisions," explained Coffee.

Analysts trading for their own accounts contrary to their recommendations - for example, selling shares or shorting shares when they publicly gave the company the highest ratings - were discovered by the SEC during an initial inquiry into analysts' conflicts conducted last summer by then acting-SEC commissioner Laura Unger.

Black Blade: The Feds want a piece of the action too. This is going to be fun!!! And ifwe are "very lucky", we "might" even see some honesty return to Wall Street.

steady

(05/24/2002; 15:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76503)

my one guess for the gold or silver!

$$$325.50$$$$$with the bone pile growing internationally and a world wide fiat currency system that sucks. why not!

gold & silver
honest money for
honest people !

Pippin

(05/24/2002; 15:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76504)

To Gandalf from Pippin

Sorry Gandalf, but I have the feeling that my "bet" has been forgotten in your recap:
Quote
Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76362)
$$$$ 314.50 $$$$
I believe that a little temporary correction will take place.
UnQuote
It looks that my figure of 314.50 has already been allocated in the meantime; could you therefore be so kind as to inserting a new record with $314.60 ?
Many thanks.

luckypierre

(05/24/2002; 16:51:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76505)

Pippin

Since your guess was earlier than mine, I will let you have the 314.50 posting.

LuckyPierre

steady

(05/24/2002; 16:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76506)

rookie error on first try

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/turk121200.html this may help answer the question . does the U.S.A. have any gold?

YGM

(05/24/2002; 16:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76507)

steady..........."OUTRAGEOUS".......Wake up World!!!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/turk010802.htmlAccounting for the ESF's Gold Swaps....James Turk......

Thank you VERY much for posting that by Jim Turk....I was away from Nov to mid Feb and missed it. It is truly revealing and makes me really question how the US Government function at all...
The info contained in that report is pretty much indisputable, clear enough for any fool to understand and we hear no outrage or even a whimper from elected politicians or the public.....The latest Turk Report should be emailed, faxed and mailed to every Senator and Congressman/woman in the country, (3x so they cannot deny getting it) and sent to every media Newswire service in the World. if I thought for one moment others would help to accomplish this I would start today!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GATA alone cannot be the end all for all Gold Advocates, and I've been there since inception, but those who have time to fight the apathy and ignorance of a dumbed down population can/could/would raise the volume on this outrage perpetrated by the Federal Reserve and the "private" shareholders thereof.........

HOW LONG DOES THE WORLD PASSIVELY SIT ON THEIR ASSES COMPLAINING ABOUT INJUSTICES AND DO NOTHING TO CORRECT THEM.

THE STRANGLEHOLD OF THE MOST SECRETIVE, MANIPULATIVE, CROOKED, SUBVERSIVE, AND EVEN MURDEROUS POWER BASE IN OUR WORLD IS CENTRAL BANKS, AND IT MUST END!

WILL IT END?......NOT UNLESS WE THE PEOPLE TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OUR LIVES AND THAT MEANS OUR WEALTH AND OR CREATION OF SAME......Sounds like a idealists dream huh?
Well that's all it ever will be except for the likes of a few dedicated people, maligned as crazy Goldbugs......YGM

steady

(05/24/2002; 16:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76508)

does the u.s.a. have any gold?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/turk010802.html mr turks work tries to answer this question!

Waverider

(05/24/2002; 16:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76509)

Oil Experts Draw Fire for Warning

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020524/world_oil_running_dry_3.htmlSnippit:
"Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval -- or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.

Colin Campbell, a retired geologist who helped organize the conference, argued that governments are too caught up in short-term issues to focus on the long-term threat of depleted oil reserves. Oil companies prefer not to talk about it for fear of upsetting their investors, he said.

"There's a lot of phony baloney in there," said economist Michael Lynch of the U.S. business forecasting firm DRI-WEFA. "A lot of prominent geologists just laugh at this."

Unlike Lynch, Campbell believes that improvements in the technologies used to explore and drill for oil will increase production by only modest amounts. As a result, Campbell forecast that oil output would peak by 2010 -- at least 26 years sooner than the rollover point predicted in a U.S. government study prepared in 2000."

Waverider: Very interesting article in view of the discussions here and my reading "Hubbert's Peak". As with Hubbert's predictions, there are alot of people with vested interests who don't want to hear this!

Off to burn some fuel (calories that is) :)

Waverider

(05/24/2002; 16:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76510)

Oil experts draw fire for warning global crude supplies could peak by 2010

OOPS...here's the full title!

steady

(05/24/2002; 17:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76511)

silver! without it gold is just another fiat.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/tlaga011902.html a few days ago someone in a veild attempt to bring silver to the forefront and cause a discusson here brought up the idea silver would not be money. i beg to differ. and offer the link as my argument for the case of

gold and silver
honest money for
honest peole!

YGM

(05/24/2002; 17:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76512)

What Good Would Come of Publicly Owned Central Banks???

Well Probably an End to....................................Wars!
Poverty!
Starvation!
Lifelong Debt!
Extremes between 1st and 3rd world Countries!
Working to 60 & 70 yrs old before able to retire!

*I'm sure we could add to the list for awhile...

You know which is probably the only "Nation/Peoples" on the planet that could bring such a change about??? The "UNITED STATES OF AMERICA" that's who....The most freedom loving, fighting for, people in history....If it happened in the US that the Federal Reserve was replaced by a truly Public Banking system the rest of the world would follow at some point......One President or a couple Congressmen will never institute change alone...They'd be dead! History proves it!
...ONLY THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE CAN.
...But too few even know the game/dupe.

And I see very little will as I look toward my fellow man!!
Hell it took 3 yrs to get a little recognition for GATA....

Lucky for many that there are a few Ron Pauls, Bill Murphy's, Reg Howe's and Chris Powell's out there!

We'll all sit content with our BBQ, Hammock, & a couple beer this weekend knowing Gold is up & we're a little better off than last week!

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2002; 17:21:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76513)

HAIL to both SIR LuckyPierre & SIR Pippin

luckypierre (05/24/02; 16:51:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 76505)
& Pippin (05/24/02; 15:42:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 76504)
--
STRIKE TWO !! ---YES ! Indeed, I sure missed that one !
and THANKS for saving me LuckyPierre, by your offer to let Sir Pippin have that one and you will try again. (I know that you really wanted to try a new HIGHER Guess !!!) <;-)
--
It sure is nice to work with such GREAT Goldhearts.
--
Please ALL, notify me if I have somehow MISSED your CONTEST entry. Thanks !!
<;-)

Golden Bear

(05/24/2002; 17:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76514)

YGM (msg#: 76512) What Good Would Come of Publicly Owned Central Banks???

Well spoken YGM,Alas, the frogs that make up this world of ours do not sense that the heat has been turned up on them and is heading towards boiling point, leading to their untimely financial demise. Argentina is full of these dead and dying frogs, and the rest of the western world will soon get to feel this heat. The great thermostat called Gold is flashing warning signs of the rising temperature, however, the frogs assume that it has been broken for a long time, and thus will not heed its message until, they too have been boiled....

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2002; 18:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76515)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002.

In step with GATA motto, Sir MK offers "FREE GOLD", (IF your Guess is correct) and also FREE SILVER (if your Guess is very near correct) ! Prizes are a Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the winner, and also a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf each to the runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

6th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
====
<;-)

Golden Bear

(05/24/2002; 18:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76516)

Poor relative gains of the Hedgers!

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/golddefy.htmHamilton's article on the relative performance of hedgers vs non-hedgers is an excellent reason to not own these Gold hedge funds... their poor shareholders have suffered massive amounts of lost gains.

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 18:44:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76517)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Gold, Gold, and More Gold

Snippit:

The other story this week was the rise in gold prices to record 2 � year levels. Not since 1999 have we seen prices this high. Bullion banks could be in very serious trouble if the price goes beyond $325, and the same for silver if it goes past $5.25. The bullion dealers have sold record amounts of gold and silver short, or they have borrowed gold and silver and sold in into the market. This has served to depress prices for most of the last decade. Both gold and silver have been running supply deficits for the last several years. There is going to be a price to pay for those short positions. Many of them won't be able to cover unless central banks intervene and sell off more of their final gold reserves. There has been a furious battle all week long in an all-out effort to drive the price down. But some very shrewd funds have been taking on the bullion short sellers. It has been necessary for bullion dealers to increase their derivative holdings in order to keep this market geared and suppressed. They have not had much success, because there are now too many buyers who want to own gold and silver and there isn't much of it around. We could see a gold and silver crisis shortly or within the year.

Black Blade: I agree. The mining supply is inadequate and cannot meet today's needs. It will get much worse as it takes a minimum of 5 years just to get a mine permitted, let alone up and running. In the meantime mines deplete reserves and shutdown and the Mega-hedgers must but out smaller mines or borrow more Gold. The final Central Bank reserves will have to be "liberated" into the markets to save the bankers and turn ownership over to the people. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 19:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76518)

Re: Waverider - Oil Experts Draw Fire for Warning

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020524/world_oil_running_dry_6.html
Oil Experts Draw Fire for Warning Global Crude Supplies Could Peak by 2010

Snippit:

"There is no factual data to support the general sense that the world will be awash in cheap oil forever," said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who helped advise President Bush's campaign on energy policy. "We desperately need to find a new form of energy."

"There's a lot of phony baloney in there," said economist Michael Lynch of the U.S. business forecasting firm DRI-WEFA. "A lot of prominent geologists just laugh at this."

(Black Blade: I just wonder who these "prominent geologist are that he refers to?)

Roger Bentley, head of The Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London, insisted that the predictions made in the 1970s were basically correct. About 50 countries, including the United States, have already passed their point of peak oil output, he said.

Simmons, the banker, predicted that the United States would suffer an energy scare even sooner, due to a 10 percent decrease he foresees in U.S. production of natural gas this year.

"If it's only 10 percent, we've dodged a bullet," he said. "And 10 percent is a disaster. It could be 20 percent."

Simmons, based in Houston, said Americans will have to embrace coal and even nuclear power once fossil fuels pass their global peak in production. Higher and more volatile prices are sure to accompany the transition period, he said.

"You couldn't get serious people focusing on this issue, and we're going to pay dearly for it."

Black Blade: The drop in natural gas production is easily overlooked in all of this debate. Natural gas is a real sleeper and will catch a lot of the energy patch asleep at the wheel. We will have no choice but to look to nuclear and coal as "cheap oil" or "cheap energy" in general is depleted. We will also have to develop more costly and/or non-conventional fossil fuels such as tar sands, heavy crudes, coal bed methane, oil shale, biomass fuels, etc.

We all are aware of the effects on the global economy as we approach "peak oil". We are heading into a general shortage of energy. However, much of this shortage is due to political infighting, rabid environmentalism, NIMBY, and artificially low oil and gas prices. Many are simply ignoring the gathering storm clouds. Another important point to remember is that in the US we have a decaying energy grid (transmission lines, substations, pipelines, etc.). There are bottlenecks everywhere in the national grid. Also, no new refinery has been built in the US in over 25 years and now we have over 90 required standards of gasoline for different regions in the country. - The list of problems is almost endless.

BTW, waverider, how is the book? I just got the novel "Green Monday" by Michaerl M. Thomas today. I opened the cover and a quote really stands out.

The Prophet has said, "There is a calamity for every people, and the calamity for my people is wealth."

- Ka'b ibn 'Lyad, in "Submission: Sayings of the Prophet Mohammed", Shems Friedlander, ed., NY 1977

Many people think that Saudi will pump all the oil that the world needs because they need money and investment. The Wahabbi clerics and other Islamists don't necessarily care about wealth that much. Heck, even Osama Bin Laden is a multi-millionaire and yet look at what he has done. Hmmm...

slingshot

(05/24/2002; 19:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76519)

Contest

Going for the Gold and Silver$$$$$$$$326.60$$$$$$$$$

Bush to Europe and Smart Money moving into PM's. Although Gold has been mention in the news the public has not listen at all and the shakers and movers in the market are relying on this time to move into PM's. IMO $324.00 To $327.00 will be the last of the $4 to $5 moves in gold. Soon to see $350.00 to $365.00.

YGM

(05/24/2002; 21:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76520)

Lest We Forget..........

Memorial Day....

In Memoriam

By Phil Brennan

Saturday, May 25, 2002

Fifty-seven years ago, on Feb. 19, 1945, three Marine divisions landed on a barren, rock-strewn, volcanic island barely two and a half miles at its widest point and about five miles from one end to the other.
The island was well named � Iwo Jima, Japanese for Sulphur Island. In a matter of minutes, the Marines huddled in the open on the volcanic sand under intense enemy fire had another name for this evil strip of black sand � Hell!

Over 25,000 tough, hardened, fanatical Japanese soldiers held the island, concealed in the hundreds of caves that honeycombed the landscape.

Among the Marines facing them were the men of D Company, 2nd Battalion, 26th Marines, 5th Marine Division. In the weeks of bitter fighting to come, this unit would suffer so many casualties the Division history would single it out to illustrate how deadly the battle for Iwo Jima had been.

To readers of that history, the casualty list is an interesting statistic. To me, it is a mournful dirge � these men were my fellow Marines, men I'd trained with, gone on liberty to Los Angeles and San Diego with when we were training at Camp Pendleton, sailed off with into the Pacific theater � and from whom, through the grace of God, I was separated before they made their one-way journey into Hell.

Hardly any of them lived to see the end of the battle. The casualty rate for the 2nd Battalion was 95 percent of the officers and 98 percent of the enlisted men.

It was of these men and the other Marines who fought and died there that Adm. Chester Nimitz said, "Uncommon valor was a common virtue."

There was 16-year-old Paul Pugh from Salt Lake City, Utah � a sweet-tempered kid we called Chicken. My closest friends, Leo Oster from Ohio and Byron Lindsley from New Orleans. They never left Iwo. Nor did one of the Crabtree twins. His brother crawled out into heavy fire to drag his dead twin's body back.

Marty Gelshannan, a second lieutenant and a kind mentor, died there � but not before earning a Navy Cross, the Navy's second-highest decoration.

And there was the Marine who replaced me when I was brought back to the States to attend the Naval Academy Prep School. I don't know what his name was, but I know he died alongside Paul Pugh. It shouldn't bother me that another man was my proxy in death � but it does.

It shouldn't bother me that I was not there, sharing the horror of that unspeakable battle with my friends and fellow Marines. But it does.

There's nothing I can do about it but remember those men. Five thousand Marines � fathers, sons, husbands � died on Iwo Jima 57 years ago. Please say a prayer for them.

YGM

(05/24/2002; 21:31:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76521)

From Flanders Fields to Roberts Ridge

Michelle Malkin...Courtesy of NEWSMAX.COM

From Flanders Fields to Roberts Ridge
Michelle Malkin

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
� John McCrae, "In Flanders Fields," 1915
We cherish, too, the poppy red That grows on fields where valor led; It seems to signal to the skies That blood of heroes never dies.
� Moina Michael, "We Shall Keep the Faith," 1918

The Memorial Day tradition of wearing red poppies to honor our fallen American veterans was inspired by Miss Moina Michael, a Georgia teacher who was inspired by John McCrae, a Canadian military doctor who wrote the famous World War I poem, "In Flanders Fields." They, in turn, have inspired me to commemorate a story of war and sacrifice that happened just two months ago.
The battle was Operation Anaconda in eastern Afghanistan. The enemy targets: al Qaeda troops and Taliban. In the early hours of March 4, 2002, the bloodiest date so far in the War on Terror abroad, U.S. Navy SEAL Neil Roberts joined his unit aboard a Chinook helicopter. They were assigned to conduct a clandestine insertion onto a 10,000-foot mountaintop to establish an overwatch position, protecting other American forces participating in the attack.

As he prepared to jump from the helicopter ramp to the landing zone, the 32-year-old Roberts and the rest of the crew came under fire from a hail of rocket-propelled grenades. The aircraft lurched. Roberts was thrown from the helicopter. He fell several feet into al Qaeda-infested territory on the Kharwar Mountains.

According to classified reports, Roberts survived the fall and valiantly held off enemy troops for more than half an hour. But when his machine gun jammed, Petty Officer 1st Class Roberts was overtaken and killed at close range by three suspected al Qaeda soldiers.

A six-man commando team set out to rescue Roberts. "We don't leave Americans behind," explained Brig. Gen. John Rosa, deputy director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, after the deadly fight.

The team was also met by heavy fire, and Air Force Tech. Sgt. John Chapman, 36, was killed at the scene. During a follow-up gun battle on the mountain that lasted 12 hours, five other men from a quick-reaction rescue squad died: Senior Airman Jason Cunningham, 26; Army Pfc. Matthew A. Commons, 21; Army Sgt. Bradley S. Crose, 27; Army Sgt. Philip J. Svitak, 31; and Army Spc. Marc A. Anderson, 30.

All of the men received posthumous honors, including the Purple Heart, the Bronze Star and meritorious service awards, for their heroism on the frozen peak in eastern Afghanistan now known as "Roberts Ridge." But for Roberts, giving his life to his country was its own reward. In a letter he wrote to his wife before the attack in case of death, he reflected: "I consider myself blessed with the best things a man could ever hope for. I loved being a SEAL. If I died doing something for the Teams, then I died doing what made me happy. Very few people have the luxury of that."

In a memorial statement, Roberts' family elaborated on what motivated their cherished son, brother, husband and father: "He made the ultimate sacrifice to ensure that everyone who calls himself or herself an American truly has all the privileges of living in the greatest country in the world."

May we never forget what happened:

On Roberts Ridge
I don't know if red poppies grow
On Kharwar Mountains high or low,
But on a distant peak there lies
A modern Flanders Field.

One man battled from the ground,
While helicopters gathered 'round,
Whose crewmates' mission was defined:
We don't leave our soldiers behind
On any foreign field.

Bullets flew and seven fell dead.
For all who gave let this be said:
From Flanders Fields to Roberts Ridge,
By peaks and valleys, beach and bridge,
The blood of heroes has been shed
So we might live our lives instead
And humbly reap the gains
Of freedom's yield.

� Michelle Malkin, 2002

DOWNUNDER

(05/24/2002; 22:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76522)

CONTEST - - - - - -

$$$$$$ 331 $$$$$$$$ This is not much further than where we're at right now --and I'm feeling reasonably confident of a continuing rise in the POG --- and Silver !

Black Blade

(05/24/2002; 23:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76523)

The 100 year Bear Market Portfolio

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6204B31D%2D88DF%2D4BEA%2DAC66%2DEC2C9E79D82D%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

Buffett and Cheney -- "inevitable"

You won't be alone. Warren Buffett, the second richest man in the world, is not only thinking the unthinkable, he's preparing for it. First, he warned us that 7 percent to 8 percent returns are the best we can expect in the foreseeable future.

Then a few weeks ago, at the annual Berkshire-Hathaway meeting, Buffett announced the unthinkable -- more terrorist attacks are inevitable on American soil. He's already positioning Berkshire Hathaway for them.

The No. two man in American government is also getting ready. Last weekend Vice President Dick Cheney echoed Buffett's sentiments on likely future attacks on NBC's "Meet The Press." FBI Director Robert Mueller and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld have also piped in on the matter.

So it's no longer if, but when, that a foreign terrorist will blow himself up in an American shopping mall or sporting event. Or worse, when will they sneak in a suitcase nuclear bomb, detonate it, and suddenly vaporize a major American city?

Black Blade: An interesting though that we here have eluded to in recent months. Hmmm�

BTW, I just got back from a local club and there I was talking about such events with one of the patrons. It was at the "Polo Club" - No kidding - they actually have a polo club here. He is putting a chunk of change into -physical Gold. The times are changing.

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 00:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76524)

Merrill hit by first wave of class actions

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20020524/324827.html
US$100M a drop in bucket?: Investors coming out of woodwork to seek redress

Snippit:

Merrill Lynch & Co., bruised but not beaten following a much publicized dogfight with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, is now bracing itself for an even more formidable foe -- legions of angry investors who feel they were duped by the brokerage's research team. A class action lawsuit was filed in New York yesterday on behalf of purchasers of the Merrill Lynch Internet Strategies Fund, the first volley in what many expect will be a protracted barrage of litigation against the embattled firm.

Black Blade: As discussed before. Now Wall Street could expect a wave of assaults from angry investors. They well deserve it as they have permitted the analysts to lie to the face of many investors. Very rarely if ever, has an analyst ever given a sell recommendation even when it was obvious that a particular company was on the ropes and even in bankruptcy proceedings. I have no sympathy for the Wall Street bankster. I hope that they get taken to the cleaners. Now others such as JP Morgan, Solomon, and Goldman Sachs are in similar straights wit SEC investigations and investor lawsuits.

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 00:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76525)

CNBC Interview � Russian Oil

I saw an interview with Ron Insana and Fadel Gheit about Russian oil. Insana was really pushing to get Fadel to sat that all was well if Russia would produce more oil. Fadel put Ron in his place by saying in effect that it does not make any difference because oil is part of the global economy and the Middle East oil is and always be very important to the economy, Insana was a very unhappy camper at this point. Fadel also pointed out that Russia would not be able to outpace ME oil for at least 5 or 10 years and by then demand would put even more reliance on ME oil. You could just see Insana's look of disappointment as if to say � "that's not in the script". Quite funny to see the blind when their eyes are opened.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 00:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76526)

Silver execs see sharp gains ahead

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4C0268CF%2D6FE0%2D492B%2DA833%2D886BDD9216E2%7D&siteid=mktw&
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Buried in the Silver Institute's 88-page survey on Thursday is the industrial metal's trading link with gold.

Talk about physical silver supplies is like opening up a can of conspiratorial worms. Everyone has a theory about silver and how easily its price can -- or cannot -- be manipulated. No one, for example, really knows if Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway still owns all those millions of ounces. Beaty thinks Buffett does. "Odds are that Buffett still owns every one of those 130 million ounces," Beaty told me Thursday. "He wanted to buy physical silver, not futures contracts, and he spent $600 million doing it."

Black Blade: Gold � Silver? Why not both? There's plenty of room in every portfolio for each - hell, even platinum as well. Under the current economic conditions I would say that all PMs should do well/ Gold especially as the USD falls into oblivion. However, Silver should do well as it tends to rise in sympathy with Gold.

Sierra Madre

(05/25/2002; 00:40:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76527)

For YGM....

All men who die on the field of battle - who "gave the last full measure of devotion" - are to be honored as heroes, regardless of the cause or party or country for which they died.

To honor the dead of the enemy, is a mark of honor.

Let those who send men to die for base and unworthy causes, bear the full dishonor. Not the dead.

Sierra

Gandalf the White

(05/25/2002; 01:02:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76528)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

FYI, the Settlement Price of the shortened COMEX session on Friday the 24th of May was : $320.7
[RGCM02 Jun '02 05/24/02 12:29:47 $320.7 (s) Open interest of 80,941 Contracts on Thursday.]

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

7th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====

$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
====
IF I have missed your posting, please advise ! Thanks All.
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 01:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76529)

Lest We Forget - Memorial Day

http://www.ussliberty.org/
For those who died at the hands of enemy and traitorous allies. This is the weekend that we honor those who gave their all so that we may hopefully live free of tyrants.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 01:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76530)

Gold stocks down ahead of holiday - Morgan Stanley stakes out bullish stance on sector

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BCC38AAC0%2D1B1F%2D43E4%2D9356%2D2894CDAAD194%7D
Snippit:

"Gold looks to be on the right track to test the next resistance at $325," according to Friday's update on precious metals prepared by UBS Warburg. Morgan Stanley, taking a longer-term view, said in a note to clients that all signs point to "a bull market for gold. We believe the gold price and gold equities will continue to move higher and outperform the broader markets."

Black Blade: Not hard to imagine as the broader markets are likely to crash. Still, it is interesting that some investment houses are allowing their PM people to promote Gold investment.

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 02:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76531)

Russia Won't Sell Gold reserves

http://www.g9999.com/english/search/requested_news_commentary.php?id=2089&table=news
Russia's central bank chairman Sergei Ignatyev said on Thursday a planned sell-off of its reserves would not include gold. Ignatyev earlier said the bank would be ready to sell some of its gold and foreign exchange reserves to stem inflation and prop up the rouble. "I did not mean gold reserves, I meant hard currency reserves," Ignatyev told Reuters, clarifying his earlier remarks. In Russian, gold and foreign exchange reserves is a set phrase often used by officials even if they are not specifically referring to the central bank's gold reserves.

Black Blade: In fact the Russian Central Bank is buying Gold and even has conytracts to buy Gold from Russian producers.

Clint H

(05/25/2002; 03:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76532)

Memorial Day....

If you missed these go back and read them. If you read them they are worth reading again.

YGM (05/24/02; 21:26:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 76520)
Lest We Forget..........
Memorial Day....

YGM (05/24/02; 21:31:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76521)
From Flanders Fields to Roberts Ridge
Michelle Malkin...Courtesy of NEWSMAX.COM

(05/25/2002; 06:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76533)

Contest

$$$$$343.00$$$$$
It's my guess and I'm sticking to it.

LeSin

(05/25/2002; 07:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76534)

Norilsk Has No Interest in Selling PGMs On Spot Market

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4255399544483283008
ODJ Norilsk Nickel Has No Interest In Selling PGMs On Spot Market

By Grigori Gerenstein
London, May 23 (OsterDowJones) - Russia's largest nickel, copper and
precious metals producer Norilsk Nickel is not selling platinum group metals,
or PGMs, on the world spot market and has no interest in doing so, Norilsk's
Deputy Chairman Maxim Finsky told reporters in Moscow.
Finsky said there had been no PGM sales by Norilsk Nickel on the spot
market. Instead Norilsk Nickel has been in negotiations with end-users on
regular supplies.
Now that Norilsk Nickel's fully-owned London-based subsidiary Norimet has
effectually become the company's sole PGM marketing agent, time is needed for
Norimet to re-negotiate and sign contracts with end-users, Finsky said.
"What we are aiming at is that in the new contracts there should be
amounts of PGM supplies specified for every year within our export quota.
Only then we can see what is left and perhaps sell the remainder on the spot
market if the price is right and there is demand," Finsky said.
"But personally I think spot sales are of no interest to us and we do not
need them. As a producer we are not interested in the spot market. What we
need is stable long-term supply agreements with end-users."

---
Grigori Gerenstein, OsterDowJones, +44 20 7979 5740
gerenstein@hotmail.com

FSN48339 MC METALS
2002-05-23 07:52:12 UTC
^^^^^

YGM

(05/25/2002; 07:35:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76535)

Sierra Madre & Clint H

You are very thoughtful...Thx! "TWO QUOTES FOR REMEMBERANCE"A QUOTE FOR FALLEN HEROES.......

"Angels are bright still, though the brightest fell."

~ William Shakespeare

A QUOTE FOR THOSE WHO STAND TODAY.......

"We, the unwilling, led by the unknowing, are doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have done so much, for so long, with so little - that we are now qualified to do anything with nothing."

~ The Selkirk Grace

YGM

(05/25/2002; 07:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76536)

REPOST......LEST WE FORGET......

MEMORIAL DAY....

In Memoriam

By Phil Brennan

Saturday, May 25, 2002

Fifty-seven years ago, on Feb. 19, 1945, three Marine divisions landed on a barren, rock-strewn, volcanic island barely two and a half miles at its widest point and about five miles from one end to the other.
The island was well named � Iwo Jima, Japanese for Sulphur Island. In a matter of minutes, the Marines huddled in the open on the volcanic sand under intense enemy fire had another name for this evil strip of black sand � Hell!

Over 25,000 tough, hardened, fanatical Japanese soldiers held the island, concealed in the hundreds of caves that honeycombed the landscape.

Among the Marines facing them were the men of D Company, 2nd Battalion, 26th Marines, 5th Marine Division. In the weeks of bitter fighting to come, this unit would suffer so many casualties the Division history would single it out to illustrate how deadly the battle for Iwo Jima had been.

To readers of that history, the casualty list is an interesting statistic. To me, it is a mournful dirge � these men were my fellow Marines, men I'd trained with, gone on liberty to Los Angeles and San Diego with when we were training at Camp Pendleton, sailed off with into the Pacific theater � and from whom, through the grace of God, I was separated before they made their one-way journey into Hell.

Hardly any of them lived to see the end of the battle. The casualty rate for the 2nd Battalion was 95 percent of the officers and 98 percent of the enlisted men.

It was of these men and the other Marines who fought and died there that Adm. Chester Nimitz said, "Uncommon valor was a common virtue."

There was 16-year-old Paul Pugh from Salt Lake City, Utah � a sweet-tempered kid we called Chicken. My closest friends, Leo Oster from Ohio and Byron Lindsley from New Orleans. They never left Iwo. Nor did one of the Crabtree twins. His brother crawled out into heavy fire to drag his dead twin's body back.

Marty Gelshannan, a second lieutenant and a kind mentor, died there � but not before earning a Navy Cross, the Navy's second-highest decoration.

And there was the Marine who replaced me when I was brought back to the States to attend the Naval Academy Prep School. I don't know what his name was, but I know he died alongside Paul Pugh. It shouldn't bother me that another man was my proxy in death � but it does.

It shouldn't bother me that I was not there, sharing the horror of that unspeakable battle with my friends and fellow Marines. But it does.

There's nothing I can do about it but remember those men. Five thousand Marines � fathers, sons, husbands � died on Iwo Jima 57 years ago. Please say a prayer for them.

YGM

(05/25/2002; 07:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76537)

From Fladers Fields to Roberts Ridge.......

Michelle Malkin.....Courtesy of NewsMax.com

From Flanders Fields to Roberts Ridge
Michelle Malkin

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
� John McCrae, "In Flanders Fields," 1915
We cherish, too, the poppy red That grows on fields where valor led; It seems to signal to the skies That blood of heroes never dies.
� Moina Michael, "We Shall Keep the Faith," 1918

The Memorial Day tradition of wearing red poppies to honor our fallen American veterans was inspired by Miss Moina Michael, a Georgia teacher who was inspired by John McCrae, a Canadian military doctor who wrote the famous World War I poem, "In Flanders Fields." They, in turn, have inspired me to commemorate a story of war and sacrifice that happened just two months ago.
The battle was Operation Anaconda in eastern Afghanistan. The enemy targets: al Qaeda troops and Taliban. In the early hours of March 4, 2002, the bloodiest date so far in the War on Terror abroad, U.S. Navy SEAL Neil Roberts joined his unit aboard a Chinook helicopter. They were assigned to conduct a clandestine insertion onto a 10,000-foot mountaintop to establish an overwatch position, protecting other American forces participating in the attack.

As he prepared to jump from the helicopter ramp to the landing zone, the 32-year-old Roberts and the rest of the crew came under fire from a hail of rocket-propelled grenades. The aircraft lurched. Roberts was thrown from the helicopter. He fell several feet into al Qaeda-infested territory on the Kharwar Mountains.

According to classified reports, Roberts survived the fall and valiantly held off enemy troops for more than half an hour. But when his machine gun jammed, Petty Officer 1st Class Roberts was overtaken and killed at close range by three suspected al Qaeda soldiers.

A six-man commando team set out to rescue Roberts. "We don't leave Americans behind," explained Brig. Gen. John Rosa, deputy director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, after the deadly fight.

The team was also met by heavy fire, and Air Force Tech. Sgt. John Chapman, 36, was killed at the scene. During a follow-up gun battle on the mountain that lasted 12 hours, five other men from a quick-reaction rescue squad died: Senior Airman Jason Cunningham, 26; Army Pfc. Matthew A. Commons, 21; Army Sgt. Bradley S. Crose, 27; Army Sgt. Philip J. Svitak, 31; and Army Spc. Marc A. Anderson, 30.

All of the men received posthumous honors, including the Purple Heart, the Bronze Star and meritorious service awards, for their heroism on the frozen peak in eastern Afghanistan now known as "Roberts Ridge." But for Roberts, giving his life to his country was its own reward. In a letter he wrote to his wife before the attack in case of death, he reflected: "I consider myself blessed with the best things a man could ever hope for. I loved being a SEAL. If I died doing something for the Teams, then I died doing what made me happy. Very few people have the luxury of that."

In a memorial statement, Roberts' family elaborated on what motivated their cherished son, brother, husband and father: "He made the ultimate sacrifice to ensure that everyone who calls himself or herself an American truly has all the privileges of living in the greatest country in the world."

May we never forget what happened:

On Roberts Ridge
I don't know if red poppies grow
On Kharwar Mountains high or low,
But on a distant peak there lies
A modern Flanders Field.

One man battled from the ground,
While helicopters gathered 'round,
Whose crewmates' mission was defined:
We don't leave our soldiers behind
On any foreign field.

Bullets flew and seven fell dead.
For all who gave let this be said:
From Flanders Fields to Roberts Ridge,
By peaks and valleys, beach and bridge,
The blood of heroes has been shed
So we might live our lives instead
And humbly reap the gains
Of freedom's yield.

� Michelle Malkin, 2002

YGM

(05/25/2002; 08:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76538)

Important to note....hence the repost from other forum...

Commiitment of Traders Report (COT) extremely bullish
(Lincoln) May 25, 08:19

Commercial Hedgers are Net Short 98,000 contracts. The last time I saw this was in the 1992/93 gold bull market which witnessed the shiny yellow soar about 26%.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

YGM

(05/25/2002; 08:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76539)

This repost follows the previous.....

Both Are Very Noteworthy.......And I'm Hearing This From Other TA Experts Also..YGMI would like to leave you all with one last thought. There is a great deal of difference in knowing something and fully recognizing its significance.

IN CONCLUSION

The current COT shows Hedgers/Commercials with a rather large net SHORT position. Historically, this has been very bullish for gold going forward. A particularly good example was early 1993, when Commercials went from a large NET LONG (40,000 contracts) to a substantial NET SHORT posture in April 1993. This marked the exact beginning of a mini-bull run in gold. Within four months gold soared 24% from $330 to $410 (basis futures). During the entire period Commercials were NET SHORT on average 80,000 contracts (reaching a MAXIMUM SHORT OF 120,000 CONTRACTS near the end of the bull run in August 1993).
UNQUOTE

***** We await Tuesday with trepidation!!!!>>YGM.

mikal

(05/25/2002; 08:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76540)

From USAGOLD News Feed and Canada's National Post Online

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
May 25,2002
New model for common currency
Economist suggests central banks operate separately, with shared inflation goals
Jacqueline Thorpe
Financial Post

Carlo Allegri, National Post
Ted Carmichael, chief Canadian economist at J.P. Morgan, says the currency union debate is here to stay.
Allowing the central banks of Canada, Mexico and the United States to operate separately but with common inflation goals, interest rates and local versions of the U.S. dollar could make North American currency union politically palatable, a leading Canadian economist suggested yesterday.
Ted Carmichael, chief Canadian economist at U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan, said in a study that while the debate about dollarization and currency union has abated as the loonie rebounds from record lows, it is unlikely to disappear as economic integration of the three trading partners continues apace.....
..... For example, the existing U.S. dollar would continue to circulate in the United States while Canadian and Mexican versions of the dollar -- depicting Canadian prime ministers and Mexican presidents on one side -- would circulate primarily within Canada and Mexico. Any one of the three versions of the dollar would be legal tender in all three countries..........The Bank of Canada however, has long argued that Canada's floating exchange rate, in conjunction with monetary policy that targets 2% inflation, has allowed the country to weather economic shocks. The behaviour of the economy over the past year, when the United States lost 1.4 million jobs while Canada gained more than 200,000, would tend to support this theory.
Still Mr. Carmichael, said NAMU is a natural extension of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and a rally in the loonie from its historic low of US61.79� on Jan. 1 to US65.22 is unlikely to dampen interest in the debate for long.
"In the medium term however, a common currency has the potential to make the transition from political issue to policy reality in much the same way as Canada-U.S. free trade in the 1980s," Mr. Carmichael concludes. "North American monetary union may yet prove to be a natural evolution, given the increasing interdependence among the United Sates, Canada and Mexico.".....click link for more

Topaz

(05/25/2002; 08:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76541)

Contest

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$
The Dollar seems to have levelled out for the time being and the short side will use this in a last ditch effort to save their bacon...E/Y/Oz pog will continue to flatline.

mikal

(05/25/2002; 08:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76542)

From USAGOLD Live News and Sydney Morning Herald

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Global fears spur flight to gold
By�Barry FitzGerald
May 25 2002
Gold has regained its safe-haven status, with a combination of global political and economic woes driving the price of bullion to 31-month highs of more than $US320 an ounce ($576 an ounce).......
Factors driving the gold price include the following:
Low interest rates have made producer hedging less attractive..... ....While industry analysts are adept at distilling the reasons for the gold price of the day, history shows that their ability to pick its short-term and medium-term direction has never been good.
The annual survey by Reuters of analysts' gold price expectations highlights the difficulties in forecasting gold's next move.
Fifteen of the best gold analysts were asked for their 2002 gold price prediction before the start of the year. Their mean expectation for the 2002 was $US289 an ounce, with two predicting a spike to more than $US300 an ounce. The highest expectation was $US325 an ounce by HSBC.....(click link for more)

steady

(05/25/2002; 08:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76543)

Again i ask . does the u.s.a. have any gold at all?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/turk081401.htmlmr turk tries to answer the question.

steady

(05/25/2002; 09:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76544)

more info on the lack of u.s.a. gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/turk010802.htmlmr turk has nailed it right on the head.

steady

(05/25/2002; 09:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76545)

silver WILL be money

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/tlaga011902.html a compelling argument.

Waverider

(05/25/2002; 09:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76546)

Black Blade

Thanks for your thoughts - it seemed rather coincidental to have come across the article while reading "Hubbert's Peak". I'm about 3/4 way through - it's fairly technical/heavy reading but extremely interesting - a good one to start with as understanding the geology, Hubbert's work (and all it encompasses), etc. seems a solid foundation to studying/understanding the geopolitics of oil.

The quote you mentioned is rather thought provoking. "There is a calamity for every people, and the calamity for my people is wealth". My first thoughts...I guess that financial wealth could be viewed as a potential calamity, depending on how it affects a person and depending on ones values. If one allows themselves to be seduced by wealth (power and greed unabated, assuming rights of privilege, loss of morals,etc.) then I believe there are unpleasant consequences as wealth then owns you. The quote brings to mind a biblical quote..."It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God". My understanding of this is that the small narrow gates one entered into Old Jerusalem were referred to as "the eye of the needle". In order for a camel to get through, it needed to do two things - get rid of its baggage, and get down on its knees (as well as stay on the straight and narrow). Profound when you think about it - the vices which can so easily accompany financial wealth (we had postings here on the debauchery at Enron) can prevent us from attaining spiritual peace. When I was in West Africa last year I was struck by how poverty stricken it is, but how happy, kind, generous and dignified the Africans are. So poor, yet so rich! Compare that to western society where people are comatose buying things they don't need with money they don't have, and they're still miserable....go figure! Having said this, I'm sure a financially poor person would view poverty as their calamity and wealth their salvation - one man's dream is another man's reality. Meanwhile I need to read more about the significance/ethics of money/wealth in Islam - I wonder what his intent/meaning was in stating that? There are so many levels one could analyze...the individual/spiritual, social, political, etc. I think the Wahabbi clerics are rather extreme..yes..so they're another kettle of fish altogether. Cheers!

Waverider

barnacle bill

(05/25/2002; 11:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76547)

What Good Would Come of Publicly Owned Banks???

YGM Msg#76512
Do you remember Public Radio, Public TV, or the Internet before it was invaded by corporate America?

If I'm not mistaken, some of the benefits you listed were also used for the formation of the Federal Reserve.

I say: bring back the days of wildcat banking which was the standard back in the 1800's. Bank runs, while not an everyday occurence, were common enough. There was no regulations back then. If a man wanted to open a bank, he opened one.
What I want to know is: why would anyone in their right mind put their money in the bank in the first place?

HAPPY HOLIDAY TO ALL!!!

GoldnSilver2002

(05/25/2002; 11:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76548)

"a decisive Battle?",each world event now should up spike

It seems to me,there is ever more turmoil in the world today.What confuses me,is why people believe it(gold) cant surpass its previous high 0f jan. 1980? Can someone more learned than me explain how things today arent at least as bad?To my understanding,because of golds suppression,once freed,it will spring higher.

Can someone correct my logic please.IN 1980 we had the hostages in tehran,rising oil,inflation and a bad economy.To my understanding,today we have far higher debt(personal and corporate,government) than in 1980.Oil hasnt risen,but next winter awaits(energy crisis?).Inflation hasnt hit(so they say!) but sooner or later Greenspin will have to raise them.We are at the tailend of a major bubble many of which have burst(tech) or are bursting.We have muddled(massaged?) numbers about who has how much gold where(ft knox?,JPM).The middle east is heating up,china is about to open its exchange in june.Japanese banks are in trouble and argentina already went belly up!And then this weekend indian troops are being told to prepare for a decisive (all out?) battle over Kashmir!!!

To an earlier poster..sophmore genius?Not!

Someone has to convince me gold cant surpass the historic high of 1980.Even if the market is manipulated,which i do believe!Enron proves a day of reckoning comes,and if the cabal could control it now,they wouldnt have let it hit 323 per oz.MY guess is gold is free,if it is, seeing it rise 10 or 20 per day (or more!)shouldnt be unexpected as the gold shorts get brown shorts!Am i wrong here guys?

Go Gold go $$$ 360 $$$

What are we supposed to do

Sierra Madre

(05/25/2002; 12:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76549)

Comments for GoldnSilver, Waverider, Mikal

GoldnSilver:

I ask myself every day what is happening, that people do not realize what is going on and what is in store for them.

Take Argentina: there was complacency one day, and practically from one day to the next, people were banging on the closed doors of the banks. The Argentinians finally came up against REALITY. Only then, did they become upset and wild with fear. This is our world - the mass of people will not think about the present facts and project them into what they portend for them in future. Is it too much TV? Too much dreaming caused by TV?

The same will occur in the US. The people will go on blithely happy, until TSHTF! Then there will be violence. That's what Homeland Security is there for, no mistake.

Waverider: calamities. I think the calamity for civilization has been the discovery and production of CHEAP OIL in the XXth Century. Think of World Society as a System. Inject enormous amounts of ENERGY into it. It comes to a boil, a state of entropy, disorder. Humanity could not cope with the huge amounts of energy available to it. The result is visible today. We are in frenetic activity - cheap oil is the reason. Cheap oil has been the calamity for humanity. It destroyed all the structures of stability created over centuries. ---Many will disagree. Think about it.

Mikal: the monetary union for Canada, US and Mexico is dismal news. Inevitable? The fact is, the US intends to establish a hemispheric empire from Alaska to Patagonia. And a fine model the US is!

Such attempts by the US will end in huge failure.

What JPM and the other big boys want, is to extend the ability to ISSUE MORE CREDIT. The banking system MUST expand credit, or collapse. So, they want Canada and Mexico to dollarize ( with a ridiculous looking currency) so they can flood these countries with credit, credit cards, credit for everything in umlimited amounts - slavery to credit, and the corresponding looting of raw materials and resources. Think of the possibilities for the US banking system to expand credit in a country of 100 million relatively debt-free people, such as Mexico. It is TOO enticing! Both for the banks, and the simple people who will greedily accept the credit and run up debt, debt, debt.

There is a race against the clock, the credit structure in the US is teetering.

However, there ARE people in Latin America who see through all this.

Sierra

JCTex

(05/25/2002; 12:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76550)

Sierra Madre (5/25/02; 12:11:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 76549)

Good friend of mine went to see his broker at one of the major houses, yesterday. The paper peddler told my friend that they were repositioning into an even more conservative portfolio; included financial houses, and insurance companies.

Reason for repositioning? My friend was upset that the account has lost close to $100,000 up to this point, and he had to call the broker to suggest doing something different.

When asked about gold, the broker didn't know anything about it, or even have it on his machine. His [major] firm didn't watch it.

When coaxed by my friend, the broker found a way to get a graph on gold. According to my friend, he nearly jumped out of his chair when he saw the graph, and used expletives that were most unusual for this particular broker.

No wonder nobody knows what is going on. With financial "advisors" like that, who needs to manipulate; but if you're manipulating, too, so much the better.

Houston

(05/25/2002; 12:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76551)

First time writer

First off, as a disabled Vietnam veteran I do appreciate the Memorial Day posts. Too bad that day is viewed by the vast majority as "only" another holiday.

I'm a first time writer and short time lurker on USAGold I like what I read. Certainly, a more formal group than the "K" site but the discussions and links are both interesting and entertaining. I'm recently become physical due to some lucky multiple purchases on eBay. Besides the awesome color there is indeed the divine heaviness that gold has. Physical is the insurance of ones wealth and paper gold is the investment leverage. However, I believe silver may offer even more leverage, given time than gold over the next year. BTW has anyone any knowledge if CDE silver stock has any hedges on the books? I can't seem to find any info on it. Any reply would be appreciated.

Plotting the future of gold graph: with many pundits saying the US dollar is 30-40% overvalued (which I agree) does this mean that gold�s peak "book value" would be in the $416-$448 range? I believe that with the many economic and political pressures internationally (Japan, Argentina, ME and now Pak-Ind) that gold will exceed the $850 tops within 3 years. A major devaluation of the dollar is a given. It's too bad the US government and the media "protect" the public with the true state of affairs here and abroad. It must all be a matter of priorities for them of what is significant and what not to spoof the sheeple.

With several writers commenting on some critical derivatives trigger at $354, if that line in the sand is crossed I would think that we might easily see some $15-20 days. Unless, of course if there isn't fed interference.

Here is my "kick at the cat" $$$$319.00$$$ I expect a slight pull back and sideways motion in the shortened week ahead. With the potential budget crisis on June 28 this could further add a lot of fuel to the PM prices.

Good day to all.

YGM

(05/25/2002; 13:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76552)

Hello Houston...

Somber Day huh?Glad to read a new poster here. You know friend even tho you and many like you feel forgotten often, and po'd when you all paid such a price, (physically, mentally, and even died) in whatever War it was, there are many, many of us who treasure those like you. Whether one agrees with the cause fought for or the end results, one fact remains. Most men/women who wear the uniform of the USA or Canada do so out of love of Country. Yes some may have been drafted against beliefs or will, but they went none the less. Soldier, Cop, Fireman, Medic, the majority are a special breed apart.....I for one cannot imagine the world w/o the price paid by our soldiers in the two world wars, cause it ain't all that grand even after winning them.....Have a few beers today with your buddies and know somebody's thoughts are with you....I lost 2 cousins and two friends in Nam....FWIW....Best at ya....YGM.

Pizz

(05/25/2002; 13:57:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76553)

GoldandSilver2002, Sierra

GOLDANDSILVER: Gold will go much, much, higher than 850. It has been extimated that without manipulation (from whomever) gold should be $600 or so in a balanced market(can't remember who's study this was, but at the time I agreed and it made sense). The manipulation has been done with short paper and leasing. So if we can assume an orderly covering, gold should rise to this level. But . . .

We don't have a situation that will allow for an orderly covering - panic & a shortage of physical. As the shorts really start to cover their paper it will be a knee jerk reaction to the upside. When it occurs there is going to be one mad scramble for physical - world wide. This is going to put one major floor under the rise as we move back into Econ 101, supply and demand. As this happens, there is going to be trillions coming out of all other papermarkets and I feel a much larger % than any realize is goping to go into ANYTHING gold/silver related. Even ones with "gold" in their names only!!!!

I've made this statement before, and I'll make it again. Hot money during the internet boom pushed internet stocks to multiples that had to be based upon propjected SALES because there were no earnings or assets for that matter. If we look at just gold and silver stocks, all of these capitalizations now, are less than only ONE OF MANY HUNDREDS of these old flyers. What kind of price multiple do you think all of this hot money is going to put on physical, PM stocks, jewelry stores, public pawn shop chains (if there are any), etc. just based upon their asset values????

We're going way higher than 850 and one whole heck of a lot faster than anyone thinks. When I first read FOA last year and his talk of 30,000 gold, I chuckled. I'm not chuckling anymore.

Unfortunately, when we get to the 600 - 1000 range (assuming we don't get a massive spike nearly overnight into the thousands, and there's a good chance of that) I estimate well over half the holders of gold in any form (now) are going to let both greed and panic overcome their senses, and they will sell for fiat. It will be too bad.

I have a big sign over my monitor at home: PATIENCE!!!!

SIERRA: Your comments of when TSHTF in the US are right on. I've been watching a lot of people this week, and with all the war/terrorist news, etc., still most are walking around like a bunch of lobotomized sheep. They have'nt a clue!!! Even with my very close freinds, when I tell them that this country is going to come unhinged after the next wave of terror attacks, they look at me like I'm crazy.

COMPLETE DENIAL AND SELECTIVE BELIEFS THAT SUPPORT THEIR CURRENT POSITIONS.

(In all do respect, we here tend to do the same (without the complete denial), but are much more informed and are more prepared for disaster than others. If what we expect does not happen by something that I cannot foresee, all we will be are contrary investors who have made nice returns. Not a bad position to be in!!!)

Pizz

slingshot

(05/25/2002; 14:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76554)

Houston

**************************************************************Welcome Home Houston.
Enjoy the Holiday.
Slingshot------------------------<>

luckypierre

(05/25/2002; 15:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76555)

My guess on the June future

$$$$316.00$$$$
I would love for it to be 360, but I think there will be some retrenchment next week, as some holders sell their paper for quick profit.

R Powell

(05/25/2002; 18:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76556)

COT thoughts

YGM mentioned (76538) Lincoln's long exceptionally good post on COT numbers along with some excellent definitions of open interest and comercial vs speculative players in commodities markets. Well worth not only reading but printing out. Even if you consider the paper market as something akin to sewerage, understanding it can enhance the understanding of gold and silver prices. I view this knowledge as necessary as knowing the rules of any game being played.
COT as of 5/21/02
Silver
Non Commercial 50,381 long
3,847 short

Commercial 17,262 long
86,787 short

Small Specs 27,358 long
4,367 short

What strikes me most is the extreme low number of non commercial and small specs short positions. This implies that these non hedging players have covered their shorts with the relatively few remaining positions probably held in the hands of the well financed. The commercials are less likely to fuel buying into the market by way of short covering than the non hedgers. Short covering drives prices up but short covering does NOT fuel long sustained uptrends. IMHO if the POS continues up it will not be through short covering. I see this as positive for the long term.
Sarnoff mentioned this in "Silver Bulls". He stated that by the time POS was high and moving at a rate of a dollar per day, the weak speculative contracts had been closed with loses, some by way of margin calls that could not be met forcing the offsetting of short positions. Who then was left to sell into further buying? Only those with actual physical. Mocatta was one. These determined production costs, added carrying costs and then were happy to sell at prices higher "locking in" or assuring themselves of profits. This is industrial hedging. This was also the only source of selling left in a rapidly rising market. One such provider was a manager for Chilian silver who job was to "lock in" a profitable sale price for silver ore which was being sent to Mexico for refinement into deliverable bars. This process took about six months so projected supply was sold forward on the futures markets to assure profitability for the time when the bars would be ready for sale. However, the market manager, listening to bad advice from brokers, sold forward more than could be delivered. Sound familar?
When the hedgers are the only sellors, prices will rise more than a few cents per day. Lincoln did us a favor by pointing out this big concentration of shorts held by the commercials. I believe, if this continues, it will become very "interesting" indeed. Thanks Lincoln.
I focused on silver. The COT for gold reflects this same trend but not yet quite so severe. Any thoughts?
Happy Holiday Weekend
Rich

Jimbo

(05/25/2002; 18:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76557)

Response to JCTex

I wonder how many folks who post on this Web site have been given bad financial advice by advisers, and are now making good money in gold investments?

My experience is probably typical of what many of you have experienced. My adviser, during the dot.com fiasco, oversaw the loss of about $400K from my portfolio. Never did she admit responsibility or provide me with common sense answers to my strident questions, or advice to move out of certain Nasdaq 100 investments. Bottom line: she didn't know what the hell she was doing! Unfortunately, nor did I.

Now I do, however, and many months ago decided to be my own financial adviser. Initial research indicated gold potentially was the way to go, and I sunk a lot of my remaining portfolio in gold stocks/funds. The results have been great! I've made up a good portion of what I lost in the dot.coms, and am on my way to "full recovery," so to speak.

I never will listen to another financial adviser. Everything I do now is based on what I read on this and other Web sites, as well as careful study of world economic conditions. My investment buddies, who are "playing it safe in small-cap value funds," are bragging about their six percent ytd gains. I dare not tell them that my portfolio went up six percent this week, and my gold stocks went up 12 percent.

Black Blade

(05/25/2002; 19:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76558)

Jimbo

I don't know if you have ever seen that TV commercial where tow guys are sitting in a diner and one is complaining about his portfolio and that he is afraid to open and look at his portfolio statements anywhere. The other guy acts a bit confused and says: "whaddya mean?" The first guy says; "come on everyone's in the same boat!" and the confused guy says: "same boat?"

I feel this way at times myself as I hear some of my friends complain about how much they lost. Sometimes I say: "Oh well, I only up 158% so far this year." They just look at me and shrug their shoulders because they know that I am in Gold, unhedged Gold miners, and energy trusts, and they also know that I am making out quite well. Will they prepare their portfolios, diversify, and get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance? Hell no! They want more dot.coms and techs! Hmmm�

That's why this Gold Bull Market has a very long way to go. Even with tremendous gains in PMs and horrific losses in the "New Economy", the public still has not noticed that there are those of us who are like the guy in the investment commercial who listen to them whine about how bad the economy is and we respond with "Whaddya mean?"

- Black Blade

mikal

(05/25/2002; 20:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76559)

Pakistani infiltration may spark war

http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/250502/newspics/links/index15...

Kashmir militants plan new attacks
Pakistan accused as Kashmir militants plan new attacks
Rory McCarthy in Islamabad and Richard Norton-Taylor
Saturday May 25, 2002
The Guardian
Islamist extremists backed by a powerful wing of the Pakistan army are preparing to launch new guerrilla attacks in Kashmir, raising fears that their activities could push the subcontinent into nuclear war.
Militants backed by the Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) have described how they are acquiring funds and training for guerrilla conflict in Kashmir, in violation of a government ban.....
...Several hundred ISI officers, who have personally backed extreme Islamists, remain opposed to the Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf's decision to back America in its "war on terror" and, according to a senior Pakistani military source, have avoided a recent purge of the agency's leadership.
Britain is deeply concerned at the events in Kashmir and the intentions of Pakistan's military. A senior Whitehall source said: "Whether or not Musharraf is turning a blind eye we don't know. What is clear is that the ISI is up to its old tricks.".....click link for more

YGM

(05/25/2002; 20:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76560)

Rich ....

Lincoln Post...Yes it was an exceptional breakdown for understanding PM Commodity trading....I saved it to file to have for review and reference...."Continuing Education".... one of lifes great pleasures....

PS; don't tell anyone it free here.....ex-YGM.

Great Stuff @ LemetroPoleCafe tonite....Bill & Reg never cease to amaze....Wonder where it'll all end with this GATA perseverence???

mikal

(05/25/2002; 20:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76561)

US shelves Iraq invasion plans

http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/250502/detfor02.asp

Sunday, May 26, 2002 �
US shelves Iraq invasion plan Matthew Engel (The Guardian)
(Washington, May 25)
Senior American military leaders are believed to have turned sharply against any idea of invading Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, and have started to gain the upper hand in persuading the White House that such a mission should be postponed, preferably indefinitely....
.....The head of the air force, General John Jumper, was blunter. "We never sized ourselves to have to do high force-protection levels at home and overseas at the same time. We're stretched very thin in security forces," he was quoted as saying by the New York Times.
The cost of US military ambitions is mounting. And, with the mid-term elections only five months away, analysts believe an invasion is impossible before 2003, and that the White House is already looking for a way of reconciling its declared policy of "regime change" in Iraq with the need to back away from what looks like an untenable position.....click link for more

YGM

(05/25/2002; 21:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76562)

No Mushroom Clouds ..."YET"

http://www.fourmilab.to/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth?imgsize=320&opt=-l⪫=20&ns=North&lon=285&ew=West&alt=958&img=learth.evifSatellite View Current.....

Gandalf the White

(05/25/2002; 21:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76563)

A BIG WELCOME VET and an answer to SIR Houston !!

Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 76551)
I'm a first time writer and short time lurker on USAGold I like what I read. BTW has anyone any knowledge if CDE silver stock has any hedges on the books? I can't seem to find any info on it. Any reply would be appreciated.
==
The Hobbits recently recieved the CDE Annual Report as some of them love Silver too. CDE has a policy of NOT HEDGING any of their Silver production, BUT are known to have hedged some of their small gold production. Good to have you posting now !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/25/2002; 21:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76564)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

FYI, the Settlement Price of the shortened COMEX session on Friday the 24th of May was : $320.7

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

8th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
===
GOOD LUCK ALL !!
<;-)

Waverider

(05/25/2002; 21:14:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76565)

Chancellor under attack over sale of gold reserves

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=299017Snip:
"Gordon Brown has "lost" over �400m by ordering the sale of part of Britain's gold reserves by the Bank of England.

Figures obtained by the Independent on Sunday also show that his decision to order the Bank of England to part with some of its gold reserves and switch into the euro and yen was also not a good bet for the taxpayer. The value of gold has soared on the world markets as investors have switched to gold.

However, figures issued by the Treasury last week showed that the Bank has lost out to the tune of $578m. Treasury minister Ruth Kelly said the Governor of the Bank, Sir Edward George, had sold 395 tonnes of gold as part of the restructuring of the United Kingdom's foreign currency reserves since May 1999. The last auction was in March 2002 when the price of gold was $296.50 per ounce. Gold was trading at $320.5 in London when the markets closed on Friday.

Waverider: I was wondering when this would pop up in the media, and deservingly so! Switching Gold reserves for yen? Sheeeeeshhhhh!

BTW - ~Mikal, the 76559 link's actually on the blink.

YGM

(05/25/2002; 21:18:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76566)

Sat View Pakistan/India...

FWIW.......Click on site...Change parameters to 30 North....change Pixels to 1024 and hit update....damn near see Bin Lucky Laden's cooking fire outside his cave....To bad we can't drop a BIG rock on him from here....

YGM

(05/25/2002; 21:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76567)

1 last off topic post....Saturday Nite entertainment.

http://www.fourmilab.to/earthview/satellite.htmlPick a Satellite from about 1800? and look at our Planet...

Then wonder what the hell's wrong with the fools that inhabit it!

Solomon Weaver

(05/25/2002; 21:59:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76568)

$$$$327.0$$$$

The multiday upward trend will continue....with an attempt on $330 backing off to $327.

Poor old Solomon

White Rose

(05/25/2002; 22:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 76569)

My guess

$$$$348.0$$$$

Things are happening fast. Plus, there seemed to be a bit of a gap in here to exploit.

JCTex

(05/25/2002; 22:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76570)

response to Jimbo

Sorry about your 400 big ones.

BlackBlade's comment [That's why this Gold Bull Market has a very long way to go.] is very true, and great for us. But it's very sad for the little guys that just don't know any better.

If anybody deserves a good run, it's the goldbugs. Patience has been the name-of-the-game.

turkey hunter

(05/25/2002; 22:23:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76571)

YGM

WOW!! Thanks for the satellite site. A man can't even bury his gold without eyes looking down on him.

Nomad

(05/25/2002; 22:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76572)

Deflation !

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2002/nf20020524_4376.htmSnippit :

A LITTLE LIFT. The pain is most pronounced in manufacturing, where the makers of telecom equipment and autos, as well as commodities such as fertilizer and wood pulp, are battling overcapacity. Total finished-goods prices have fallen 2% over the past year, while prices for core consumer goods have dropped 1%. That's the sharpest decline since the early 1960s -- and it's in stark contrast to the last time the economy emerged from a recession, in 1991. Then, consumer-goods prices rose 3.9%.

Yellow Metal

(05/26/2002; 02:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76573)

This one's odd . . lot's of grist for the mill here

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/C,C/20020525/wxinsi?hub=homeBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory.html&cf=tgam/realtime/config-neutral&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wxinsi&date=20020525&archive=RTGAM&site=Front&ad_page_name=breakingnewsLittle bit of everything in this story.
snippit

A popular U.S. short-seller arrested on charges of insider-trading and racketeering may have known about the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, a prosecutor in San Diego said yesterday.

Amr (Anthony) Elgindy, 34, called his broker on Sept. 10 and asked him to liquidate his children's $300,000 (U.S.) trust account

and this

Mr. Elgindy ran Insidetruth.com (now defunct), a popular Web site for short sellers; AnthonyPacific.com (also not in operation), a subscription e-mail newsletter; and Pacific Equity Investigations, a San Diego-based company dedicated to stopping improper on-line investing.

and this

the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation raided his $2.2-million mansion near San Diego, where they found tens of thousands of dollars in cash and gold coins.

Whole lot of scramblin goin on.

Graefin

(05/26/2002; 02:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76574)

All...time to ask some stupid questions!!!

Imagine that! The Great and Powerful Gr�fin doesn't know all! hehehehehe! So...need to ask a few questions. The CORRECT answer will be greatly appreciated!
Okay...I understand what calls and puts are, but what in the heck is hedging and derivatives??? I keep scratchin' my head and the only thing that is getting me is a bald spot. :( And please...I am not a rocket scientist and my brain capacity is limited (um, short attention span too). My mother tongue is ENGLISH so please don't muddy the waters with big words I have to look up! Vielen Dank f�r alles!
Peace!
- Gr�fin

(05/26/2002; 04:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76575)

(No Subject)

$$$$325.50$$$$
Because that's what it is going to be. Gold price increas will be 10.00$ per month until hedgebooks blow out and then the moon!

The Invisible Hand

(05/26/2002; 05:15:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76576)

Let the party continue!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton052402.html
Zelotes writes:
Gold investors have been tearfully trudging through a long, hot, parched, brutal desert of scorn, ridicule, and losses for what feels like eons now.

Houston wrote in
(5/25/02; 12:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 76551)
First time writer:
First off, as a disabled Vietnam veteran I do appreciate the Memorial Day posts. Too bad that day is viewed by the vast majority as "only" another holiday.

The question that your child will always be asking (when deciding the extent to which he can be creative) is "how much mockery, criticism and failure can I tolerate?" This is the same question all creative adults ask (SCHANK, R., Coloring Outside the Lines � Raising a Smarter Kid by Breaking All the Rules, HarperCollins, 2000, p.109)

Today, I raise my glass to all disabled posters on this Forum (and I'm one of them) whose life experience with ridicule and mockery made them (us) not afraid to invest in gold.

Golden Bear

(05/26/2002; 05:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76577)

Graefin (msg#: 76574)

Greetings Graefin,

Firstly, there are no stupid questions, just a lack of knowledge on a particular topic until said knowledge is acquired.

Derivatives are financial tools which are "derived" from basic investment vehicles: for example, call and put options that you already know are tools derived from their underlying asset classes which can be stocks amongst others. Futures, swaps, forward contracts are also derivatives.

Hedging is the act of using these derivative tools to protect against adverse movement of your financial asset against you: Lets say you bought 100 shares of Gold Fields stock, and upon further reflection, you became concerned that the stock may decline significantly. To protect your investment, you could purchase a put option on Gold Fields, which would increase in value as the value of the stock dropped. When done correctly, the gain on the put option would cancel out the loss of value of the stock.

This is in direct contrast to speculating outright using these same tools for profit. The tools were actually designed as risk management tools - hedging your bets as they say....

Hope this helps,

GB.

Graefin

(05/26/2002; 05:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76578)

Golden Bear...

Wow! I guess I already knew what hedging was, just didn't know what to call it! Danke! That derivative thingy still messes with my brain, but now I think I at least have a clue! Golden Bear, thanks! And have a wonderful weekend!
Gr�fin

R Powell

(05/26/2002; 06:52:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76579)

Graefin // Hedging

Another definition of hedging from Gallacher's "Winner Take All",

Commodity futures exchanges came into being in the last century for purely economic reasons: to permit producers and consumers to contract to deliver and receive specified quantities of a commodity at some date in the future, but at a price determined in the present. Such forward buying and selling, or hedging as it was known, allowed for more stable economic activity, by removing to some extent price volatility as one of the unknowns in the business planning equation."

With this set up, farmer Brown can sell when the price is at least high enough to insure a profit for his corn and Kellogg's can insure a continuous supply of corn for Corn Flakes at a predetermined price. If there just happens to be no buyers when farmer Brown wants to sell, there are always speculators who will take the long side and buy his corn. Likewise Kelloggs will always find sellers, whether they be farmers or speculators.
FWIW, Gallacher's book is very good both as a source of knowledge and as entertainment as in funny. It can be had in paperback and is not expensive. It reads easily.
Happy Weekend
Rich

R Powell

(05/26/2002; 07:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76580)

Jimbo

Just read your 76557. Good for you, man!
My brother-in-law put almost everything he has in a mutual fund recommended by a friend. He has no idea where they have invested and refuses to consider that his money is at risk. He says he doesn't have the time to investigate. Translation: he's too lazy to think.
May I suggest William Gallacher's "Winner Take All" that I just refered to when discussing hedging? I'm sure you'd enjoy and learn from it.
Gallacher quotes a line from Bob Dylan,

Don't put your hope in ungodly men, or

Be a slave to what somebody else believes.

If you need somebody you can trust,

Trust yourself.
---Bob Dylan--

Happy Memorial Holiday
Rich

mikal

(05/26/2002; 08:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76581)

US gov't warnings continue apace

http://www.news24.com/News24/World/0,1113,2-10_1190451,00.html

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26/05/2002 11:12��-�(SA)��
E-mail story to a friend

Watch out for planes, FBI warns
Maxim Kniazkov
Related Articles
US warns citizens on travel
Terrorists turn to scuba diving
Tight security greets US team
Washington - The FBI added on Saturday to a flurry of recent terrorism alerts by unveiling an "intelligence update" that urges US law enforcement agencies to watch out for terrorists using planes for attacks.
News of the update came on the heels of a new security warning from an agency regulating the nation's nuclear power plants that was certain to stoke fears among thousands of Americans, who hit the road on the Memorial Day weekend, traditionally one of the busiest travel periods of the year.
"It was an intelligence update that went to law enforcement, not for public dissemination, on the 23rd, just reiterating that fact that airlines and airline companies should remain vigilant that terrorists might use airplanes for attacks," explained Federal Bureau of Investigation spokesperson Steven Berry.
He said the document was urging local authorities to pay particular attention to "smaller planes" that could be used for terrorist strikes.
Importance played down
But he played down the importance of the document, describing it as "not new" and designed primarily to "remind" law enforcement officials around the country to be vigilant.
Just late on Friday, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent out an advisory to all 103 US nuclear power plants, urging them to step up vigilance.
NRC spokesperson Diane Screnci confirmed the existence of the alert but refused to disclose any details.
"We are not giving the specifics of any of our advisories," she said.
The commission has already issued more than two dozen security warnings since the September 11 terrorist attacks and the US nuclear plants "are already at the highest level of security," Screnci said.
The new announcements joined a slew of "warnings," "alerts," and "advisories" already dumped into the public domain by various gover

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26/05/2002 11:12��-�(SA)��
Watch out for planes, FBI warns
Maxim Kniazkov
Washington - The FBI added on Saturday to a flurry of recent terrorism alerts by unveiling an "intelligence update" that urges US law enforcement agencies to watch out for terrorists using planes for attacks.....
....."It was an intelligence update that went to law enforcement, not for public dissemination, on the 23rd, just reiterating that fact that airlines and airline companies should remain vigilant that terrorists might use airplanes for attacks," explained Federal Bureau of Investigation spokesperson Steven Berry.
He said the document was urging local authorities to pay particular attention to "smaller planes" that could be used for terrorist strikes.
vigilant.....
Just late on Friday, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent out an advisory to all 103 US nuclear power plants, urging them to step up vigilance.
NRC spokesperson Diane Screnci confirmed the existence of the alert but refused to disclose any details.
"We are not giving the specifics of any of our advisories," she said.
The commission has already issued more than two dozen security warnings since the September 11 terrorist attacks..... - Sapa-AFP .....click link for more

�
�

Canuck

(05/26/2002; 08:18:05 MDT - Msg ID: 76582)

Barge crashes into and knocks down 400 ft. bridge

over Arkansas River in Oklahoma.

CNN.

Gandalf the White

(05/26/2002; 08:59:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76583)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

DUBLICATE Entry NOTICE !!!
---
OZ (05/26/02; 04:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76575)
(No Subject)
$$$$325.50$$$$
---
Sorry Sir Oz, THIS Entry was "taken" !
Please check the List below and RE-Enter. Thanks!
<;-)

====
Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

9th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

FIFTY VALID ENTRIES in Contest to Date (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
===
<;-)

nickel62

(05/26/2002; 09:16:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76584)

THE Atorney General of NY has once again taken the noteriety and the money and bagged the constituents of his state and the long term interests of those he claimed to be aiding...perhaps the lowest scum is those not who bilk the public but those public servants who claim to be enforcing the rules but are only really looking for a little publicity and a chance to blackmail the industry for campaign funds.

http://www.forbes.com/2002/05/22/0522topnews.htmlSnippet:
The most inconsequential aspect is the establishment of a committee to insure that research reports are "objective." As every research report dutifully lists numbers and none has ever been seen to explicitly admit bias, it's hard to imagine any report failing this pathetic test.

The agreement also lets Merrill off the hook in two important ways. First, it does not require that Merrill admit to any wrongdoing. This aspect, though it may have been expected, means that the agreement cannot easily be used by investors who are seeking to recover losses they claim were caused by biased research reports.

But more important--and less noticed--is that the attorney general has agreed to "maintain the confidentiality" of Merrill's documents. This provision may be standard, too. But its clear intent is to force any investor who thinks he has a claim to start over and generate his own evidence.

Information Spitzer has made public will help such investors in a general way. But they will have to find specific statements indicating conflicts--which won't be easy. His agreeing to hold back information from the public unless forced to do otherwise by New York's freedom of information law is a huge boon to Merrill.

The second sign that the Merrill settlement is less consequential than it seems is that it is explicitly superceded by other reforms already in motion. One reform that seems promising is forcing research reports to disclose what percentage of the bank's research reports include "buy" recommendations and what percentage recommend "sell" or "hold."

This way, if a bank says buy all the time and almost never says sell (as has been the case for Wall Street in general), that fact will show up right on the reports, which should lead to change.

This idea has already been adopted by the National Association of Securities Dealers and other self-regulating bodies that govern Wall Street. As a result, the Merrill agreement states that it applies only until one of Wall Street's self-regulating bodies initiates the same rule. The requirement that Merrill disclose on research reports its investment banking deals also lasts only until new rules already enacted come into effect in the next few months.

It is an article of faith among regulators that sunlight is the best disinfectant. Spitzer's light was penetrating. But he shined it where the sun was fairly bright already--and in some ways let Merrill back into the cool shade.

nickel62

(05/26/2002; 09:20:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76585)

Gold price quess

$$$$317$$$$

Rockgrabber

(05/26/2002; 09:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76586)

hedging

I wonder if or how many of the gold producers that have sold future production have hedged their short gold positions with just more calls. With todays accounting tricks anything goes. I could see ABX having sold short gold, and then just buying calls to cover the short instead of buying back and covering their shorts. Its a just paper untill the real game starts. That would be bad to sell the market your real gold, and then cover yourself for the gold you have sold in the future (in case it rises) buy buying papaer promises from a bank with no gold to cover. I dont know.

Cometose

(05/26/2002; 09:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76587)

REMEMBRANCE DAY

I read the posts of many relating to remembering the fallen;
and it occurs to me that the honor and the valour and the commitment of those that have died has not been in vain ....
in spite of the fact that there have been men in authority on the peacful shores of the U S who have been dishonorable, who have vowed commitment to no one but themselves in their seeking out self fulfillment exclusively, who have exhibited not courage...who were unseen in their activities and unknown for their true nature, who used their authority and power to promulgate objectives and vision that fullfilled their own selfish desires, utilizing the Constitution as their authority. Why has this evil be enabled.....I thought...
because the voice of the people ( the right of the people to freedom of speech ) has always been louder and more potent than the voice of the representatives that are elected by us .....We, the people still have a job to do to ensure that the jobs our servicemen and women have done and the sacrifice they have made and will make bears life giving fruit into the future forever for freedom...
that job that we have to do is to confess or verbally affirm a vision repeatedly continually and faithfully and daily ( within the parameter of our blood given right of freedom of speech) ... in masse that will change the world for the better and enable the world to see the beauty inside the dream that is America and savor a sweetness which makes all the world enamored and drawn to the goodness that the dream of America represents....The beauty and the sweetness that is America has been smudged by an image that has been ascribed to her because of irresponsible acts of authority ....WE , the people have to establish a new record of what America is with our voices to defeat the image that is being ascribed to us globally, so the masses are not decieved....
so that the hope that does spring eternal continues to do so .......and that the flames that are set inside the hearts of the People,,, eventually set ablaze the imaginations of the hearts of the peoples of the nations in all the world to what life can be on this beautiful planet.....

Perhaps we have all gotten so caught up in the affairs of this world , that we have lost our purpose of setting vision
and bringing that vision to pass...(remember the vision of our representatives is primarily based on the next election)
preoccupied with what??????? If life for the future doesn't improve because of what we do now ,,,, whatever we are doing now will be in vain (we must continually hold onto vision in addition and in priority to all of our daily responsibilities)...the People have to speak a new vision into being by continually letting it spring from their lips....If/ when we all agree what that vision is ..... and unanimously confess it .... we change the world...
that happened in the 60's , everyone came together....
I Pray that in Post 9/11 we all come together in unity and with vision that makes the 21st Century a new and higher horizon than humanity has known

Kodie

(05/26/2002; 09:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76588)

Price of gold contest

$$$$ 335.60 $$$$

I believe gold will move up a few dollars a week through June. I think we may see a correction early in the month, but only a few dollars and not for long. I would personally prefer to see go rise a little each day, rather than big moves of 5 or 10 dollars.

slingshot

(05/26/2002; 10:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76589)

Seige Engine.

Gold above $300.00 and HoldingThey say that necessity is the mother of invention,but only in proper execution of thought will you succede.
Those summond by the Lord of the Castle have assembled in the great hall. The air is filled with with a great sense of
danger before them for never have workmen and stablehands been before their Lord in council.
The Lord of the Castle enters the room all becomes silent.
I want eight horses of dark color, steady and quiet in their handling. Remove all their armor and bring the breastplates to the metalworker. The stablehands dismiss themselves.
He turns to the metalworker and orders. You will make two breastplates that pikes can not pierce and that will make no noise when the horse is at full gallop. They shall give the best protection but not hinder their speed. Yes my Lord ,and the metalworker leaves the hall. He turns to the Captain of the Guard and asks, How far can our archers place a flaming
arrow? One hundred yards with accuracy my Lord, is his reply. I want five archers that can place their arrows. Choose them yourself. As for the Knights of the horses selected, tell them they will not dress in armor for speed and silence is important.
Also I need four containers filled with oil that will break for I plan to set the trebuchet aflame before it brings down the tower. There is a impression in the field less than one hundred yards away from their lines, enough to hide five men with arrows. I will show them tomorrow and they will go in the dark of night.
The horsemen will follow after enough time given the archers and slowly make their way across the field.When they past the archers they will charge in the manner they always have, only at the last momment to form a column of two behind the
horses with breastplates and punch a hole in the Goldbugs lines and
break the containers with oil on that machine. The archers
will set it ablaze. The Goldbugs will have nothing to rally around and they will shrink in numbers.

A messenger enters the hall. My Lord, the tower has cracks
running along its buttesses.

Tomorrow night, while the moonlite is still dim.

Gandalf the White

(05/26/2002; 10:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76590)

DUPLICATE Entry NOTICE !!!

OZ (05/26/02; 04:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76575)
(No Subject)
$$$$325.50$$$$
---
Sorry Sir Oz, THIS Entry was "taken" !
Please check the List below and RE-Enter. Thanks!
<;-)

Jimbo

(05/26/2002; 10:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76591)

Anyone else alarmed?

Good morning, everyone. While perusing another gold site, I came across the post below. As I own considerable shares in S. African gold mines, I have to take this warning with some alarm. Having started my gold investing only four months ago, I don't have sufficient background to know whether the SA mineral rights war is a cause for great concern...or just another issue designed to scare me and other gold investors into selling. Would someone please comment. Thanks.
--------------------------

Chapman is nobody's fool. For somone as saavy as him to make such a strong statement about the possibility of SA nationalising mines, is reason enough for me to take notice. Perhaps those who have hundreds of thousands do not mind taking the risk, but for those who do not, who have put alll their life's savings into the SA basket, I strongly advise you to take this warning seriously. AT the least, make certain you are well diversified to protect yourself against POLITICAL risk. I know that I will look further into this situation, while paying extra close attention to my stop losses. STAY ALERT.

For those who haven't read it, here is Chapman's latest warning:
The mineral rights' war has resumed in South Africa that seeks to restore all minerals' rights to the state and to introduce the controversial "use it or lose it" land rights policy.

The government wants to take mineral rights away from white businesses and give them to the blacks. The battle between the government and the Chamber of Mines is coming to a head and the government says there is no room for compromise. Minister of Minerals and Energy, Phumzile Mlomba � Ngcuka says that white domination of the mining industry was simply not sustainable in the "new South Africa." She criticized the fact that one white company, whose chief executive is the head of the Chamber of Mines owns 63% of the country's platinum reserves. Another white company owns 95% of diamond production and two hold 83% of total manganese reserves and others own 51% of all the country's gold. Black economic empowerment has taken precedence over foreign investors concerns or the local industry's reactions. At the end of the day the government must govern, and we shall do that.

There you have it investors. We have written over and over since 1994 that the ANC would not be happy until they have taken control of the mineral rights in South Africa. This and the financial, social, political and criminal problems do not bode well for the future. It is obvious that now since all the assets of the former white government have been dissipated, that new sources of easy income must be found. You invest in South Africa at your own risk. We refuse to invest there.'

Leigh

(05/26/2002; 11:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76592)

Jimbo

FOA was always telling us about how we shouldn't invest in mines. I wonder if he was thinking about this very kind of scenario.

Graefin

(05/26/2002; 13:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76593)

RPowell...

Dear Rich,
Hedges, Cornflakes, Farmer Brown, hmmmmm! What in the heck does breakfast have to do with Soybeans and landscaping methods used in Farmer Brown's yard??

JUST KIDDING!!!!! I'm getting the drift! :) I also ordered that one book..., um, "Winter Flakes All." Maybe I'll get smarter! That would be cool!
Danke f�r alles!
Peace
- Gr�fin

barnacle bill

(05/26/2002; 14:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76594)

...more grist for the mill

Yellow Metal msg#76573To my knowledge, there has not yet been an investigation on purchases of large volumes of puts on airline stocks just prior to Sept.11.

"Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men..."

YGM

(05/26/2002; 14:41:33 MDT - Msg ID: 76595)

Leigh...Jimbo...

Nationalization of gold Mines....2-3 yrs back I asked FOA if the over use of questionable environmental laws which were causing hindrance and grief to the Placer Gold Mining Industry here in Canada could be a veiled attempt at suppression of production by Gov or worse, a portend of things to come......"Another" replied directly that I should not rule out Gov intervention nor 'Nationalization' of Gold Mining when not "IF" the VOG became extreme........FWIW.

Just Another/FOA reason for "NOT" holding paper past a certain level. Others included after extreme rise in VOG were defaults, bankruptcy etc......YGM

YGM

(05/26/2002; 15:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76596)

ANDY SMITH.......Gold @ $68.00 p/oz........Ha Ha Ha Ha ......ROTFLMAO

http://www.mips1.net/C2256BC2002A8603/UNID/LCLY-5AHPLD?OpenDocument'Gold run a load of bull' - analyst

By: Ken Gooding

Posted: 2002/05/26 Sun 20:24 ZE2 | � Miningweb 1997-2002

LONDON - The present bull market for gold will not stop the "stampede" by central banks and other official holders that has seen them cutting their bullion stocks substantially, warned Andy Smith, analyst at Mitsui Global Precious Metals in London. Ironically, central bank disinvestment from gold was likely to accelerate as gold miners reduce hedging and sell less bullion themselves.
"The exit for the central banks has been widened," Smith told delegates.

He pointed out that AngloGold was closing its hedge book (effectively buying bullion) at about the same speed at the Swiss National Bank was opening its vaults and selling its gold stocks. "Central banks were a sponge for mine output for 150 years, now the boot is on the other hoof." Smith wondered whether delegates would be willing to bet on AngloGold's buying strength being greater that the Swiss Bank's selling strength.

Smith agreed that perhaps the best hope for gold was a revival of official interest in bullion. However, he suggested this was now impossible. The lack of liquidity and market depth "means gold cannot function as a bona fide reserve asset. Gold is no longer tradable, so what use is it [to central banks]?"

As usual, it is impossible to convey the flavour and sheer vitality with which Smith delivers his � for the gold bulls � gloomy messages. He bombards his audience's eyes and ears with jokes, literary quotations, big chunks of eye-opening original research and some appalling puns, all presented at a breathless pace. To make things even more entertaining, Smith takes great care will the illustrations he selects. This presentation included, for example, a fetching photo of Kylie Monogue, a portrait of the Mona Lisa and a hideous Salvador Dali painting as well as part of a menu from the Buckhorn Restaurant in Denver offering Rock Mountain Oysters with horseradish dippin' sauce (a joke for the miners among the delegates).

However, under all the ebullience, Smith tackled some serious issues and came to some conclusions that will not have delighted the gold bulls present.

For example, he insisted that the present bull market so far resulted from "less selling, not more buying." All the excitement in the market gave the impression a great deal was going on but, in fact, there was less and less activity � as clearly indicated by London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) statistics showing volume had been falling away. This helped the market in the short-term because it meant a little money went a long way.

Smith dismissed the idea that mergers among gold producers would have a beneficial impact on future bullion prices. Even the biggest producer would never have the market power that De Beers had in diamonds or OPEC in the oil business. Neither did it matter much if gold mines closed. "New [gold] supply is marginal to second-hand inventory. Who cares who owns it? Second-hand supply dominates. New supply is a residual," Smith insisted.

He suggested that the main reason gold miners had reduced hedging was "a much reduced incentive to do it and much reduced ability to do anything at all because of the lack of market depth."

To conclude, Smith returned to one of his favourite themes � the possibility that eventually gold would go the way of silver. For many decades central banks used silver as their main physical asset but abandoned the "silver standard" in the late 19th century. "Silver fluctuated since then about a commodity price parity, despite strong official buying from time to time," he pointed out � and despite the efforts of the Hunt brothers and Warren Buffet when they bought big quantities of physical silver. The central banks started seriously to sell their gold stocks late in the 20th century, Smith pointed out. If, as a consequence, gold "catches down" with silver, the price would eventually settle at US$68 an ounce.

****With such utter mindless anti-gold rhetoric as this Andy I think you must have an extremely powerful motive to spew such "BULL"....What do you have in common with another guy who used to sound off like you? His name is Martin Armstrong, and he had no use for the barbarous relic either...Til we all found out otherwise! What will we find out about you...A Gold bust of JP Morgan? A few Mill in Roman Gold Coins?...Truth will prevail you nutcase....YGM.

R Powell

(05/26/2002; 15:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76597)

Graefin / forum

Thanks for telling me that you've ordered the book. In 1996 I recieved a pamphlet in the mail explaining how a forune could be made in commodities. It sparked my interest. I vaguely knew that commodities were crops like soybeans and such but that was about the sum of my knowledge. My economic knowledge went no further than trying to balance the checkbook once a month. I was also totally computer ignorant at that time so books were my only source of information. My work background is construction which sometimes puts brain activity to sleep. Anyway, I've read many but can only recommend a few. This is one of the best.
Like so many of us, I've learned to keep my mouth shut among family and friends concerning this subject which I find so completely fascinating and which others simply do not want to hear about. I would indeed be isolated without forum discussions, some e-mail contacts and my wife's (bless her) encouragement.
That someone would order and read a book on my say-so is really cool. Thanks to all.
Rich

R Powell

(05/26/2002; 15:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76598)

Less selling, not more buying

YGM, Andy Smith may be partially right. POG has been rising. This indicated that there has been more buying pressure than selling. With fewer forward sales and low interest rates ending any more gold carry trade, there may be much less selling. But with the unwinding of paper hedges and renewed investor interest worldwide, I don't think buying pressure is going to disappear. Open interest numbers are increasing. This does not confirm Smith's view but agrues against it.
I remember reading or hearing on a television documentary that after a particularily bad (down) stock market day in 1929 or 1930, one disoriented trader was heard to say, "It wasn't too much selling, there just weren't ANY buyers!" What might be the reverse for an out of control bull market? I always enjoy Andy Smith. Who says there's no humor in economics?
Happy Long Weekend
Rich

(05/26/2002; 15:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76599)

PDG-AOR

Placer Dome making a 2B$aud for Auriongold. I have no more details than that.

Graefin

(05/26/2002; 15:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76600)

Ricn...Your're welcome!

Wow! You're in construction! You talk like you're a brain - you know like you're up there on the pedistal with Black Blade, Town Crier, Grandalf the White and a few others! But my guess is a few of them work for USA gold. Ist das richtig?? Or maybe they're just way-smart too! Maybe there is hope for me after all!
Have a great weekend all...and as usual...it's past my bedtime in this corner of the world! Tsch�ss!
- Gr�fin

Boilermaker

(05/26/2002; 16:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76601)

PDG- AOR aquisition

Sunday May 26, 5:29 pm Eastern Time
Reuters Company News
Placer Dome makes A$2 bln bid to acquire AurionGold

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, May 26 (Reuters) - Gold mining company Placer Dome Inc.(Toronto:PDG.TO - News; NYSE:PDG - News) on Sunday offered to acquire rival AurionGold Ltd. (Australia:AOR.AX - News) for about A$2 billion ($1.11 billion) in stock, aiming to become a leading worldwide gold producer as gold prices continue to mount.

Placer Dome said the unsolicited offer, announced in a public statement on Sunday, would exchange 17.5 of its shares for each 100 AurionGold shares. Based on closing prices Friday, that would value the Australian firm at A$4.51 per share, representing a more than 30 percent premium to the company's closing price Friday.

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd., AurionGold's leading shareholder, has agreed to support the bid and vote its 9.8 percent stake in favor of the acquisition, Placer Gold said.

The merger, if accepted, would create the world's No. 5 gold mining company and Australia's second-largest gold producing firm, with more than 1.2 million ounces of gold mined annually, Placer Dome said. Global production is expected to be 3.8 million ounces.

Comment,
The gold games are getting interesting. Players are placing their bets. I'd like to see where Andy Smith's money is.

The Invisible Hand

(05/26/2002; 16:22:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76602)

"All paper will burn"

Jimbo,
You asked in msg#: 76591 Anyone else alarmed?
Good morning, everyone. While perusing another gold site, I came across the post below. As I own considerable shares in S. African gold mines, I have to take this warning with some alarm. Having started my gold investing only four months ago, I don't have sufficient background to know whether the SA mineral rights war is a cause for great concern...or just another issue designed to scare me and other gold investors into selling. Would someone please comment. Thanks.

I'm not alarmed, I'm happy to see that one of Another's prophecies, i.e. that all paper will burn, is coming true.
My two cents: sell ALL your paper NOW, buy the physical thing.

Chrusos

(05/26/2002; 16:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76603)

Jimbo & Robert Chapman

Chapman also says the US is a fascist state. He is a conspiracist par excellence and makes Le Pen look like a raving pink liberal. My understanding is that in many nations such as Australia (and maybe the US and Canada) that the state owns all mineral rights until granted.

South Africa has made a miracle transition and they wealth has to be shared. Our government has been exceptionally responsible as to how this is implemented. There is absolutely no threat to ownership. Where mineral rights have remained undeveloped they may be forfeited back to the state. If FW De Klerk had the same attitude as Chapman � Mandela the head of the ANC would still in prison or maybe we would have had civil war in SA.

Any gold investor who ignores SA mines does so at his peril � 60% of all gold ever mined came from under our soil and the results and wealth that came form this are still very apparent. When the US succumbs to its trade deficit, Himalayan derivatives, overvalued shares and currencies South Africa will suddenly become a haven of stability and prosperity.

The US Gov. forcibly confiscated all citizens gold � in my opinion that is extremely unlikely in South Africa which in any case doesn't have the mechanisms of control that are available in the US were another abusive Clinton type govt. to come into power with an anti gold agenda.

Just trying to give the other side of the equation

Best wishes

Chrusos

Gandalf the White

(05/26/2002; 17:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76604)

Lady Graefin's Question ( you are soooo smart)

Nr., Dame Graefin, die nicht total korrekt ist. BB und I sind freelancers und haben Berufe, die wir als Berater zu den spezifischen Industrien bearbeiten. Wir k�nnen etwas Dienstleistungen zu USAGOLD zur Verf�gung stellen, aber empfangen einen GEHALTSSCHECK ab schon.
<;-)

Husky

(05/26/2002; 17:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76605)

Zorro Chapman and SA stocks

Good grief. Bring that cash home to the US folks, spend it on shares in US mines. They won't confiscate mines in the US. The very thought of the Fed owning a gold mine is so far from any known reality that it's patently obvious that the US mines are more secure. And as far as confiscating things goes, nor would they ever think of confiscating gold bullion in the US. This kind of thing only happens in third world countries run by 'socialists'. Sheesh, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Gandalf the White

(05/26/2002; 17:59:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76606)

REPOST for Sir OZ

Gandalf the White (05/26/02; 10:28:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76590)
DUPLICATE Entry NOTICE !!!
OZ (05/26/02; 04:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76575)
(No Subject)
$$$$325.50$$$$
---
Sorry Sir Oz, THIS Entry was "taken" !
Please check the List below and RE-Enter. Thanks!
<;-)

goldquest

(05/26/2002; 18:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76607)

Fasten Your Seatbelts

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1152741Time to dump the worthless paper!

YGM

(05/26/2002; 18:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76608)

Andy Smith........

Funny Maybe........(but not if you're on the losin end of believing him)But he and those like him are no different or less damaging to the financial well being of many than are the lying. double talking Wall St. Analysts, Brokerage Houses etc being sued and investigated...With all due respect to Mr Smiths' successes in getting to where he is (well-off?) and
he obviously must have some right to his soap box, but his damage to the Gold World is not to be taken lightly...
Just as I feel for Martin Armstrong as a pawn for higher culprits, I also know he caused an incredible amount of damage to the finances of others thru PEI etc.....People such as Smith should be seen for what they mold and create not just their humor or flair. The man lies thru half truths to create a distrust of Gold Investment and consequently molds others who may trust his judgement......

No liquidity in Gold?....Right 20-40 M/oz/p/d at LBMA!
Gold is not tradeable?....Since when!
A Stampede of CB selling?....Where's that at!
New supply Gold is residual?....Right when 10,000+ T Deficit

He suggested that the main reason gold miners had reduced hedging was "a much reduced incentive to do it and much reduced ability to do anything at all because of the lack of market depth."

Ok..I'm sure the Hedge buy backs have naught to do with the likes of ABX losing 21 Mill per 1$ rise in Gold value, and the woes of Ashanti and potential collapse of others...

Lack of market depth...Funny most Gold Stocks and Funds are up 70-100% over 12 mo...And this with many manipulative forces and Gold Bashers like Smith working overtime...

Gold would go the way of Silver and be worth $68.00 p/oz...
Ok Andy now tell the audience how Silver has been manipulated for over twenty years, hence the $5.00 price tag. Don't tell them it should trade at +/- $50.00 and at historical ratios that would put Gold at $400.00 to $500.00

Anyways these are just a few points where the likes of Mr Andy Smith are concerned...HE AND HIS ILK need to be taken to task once and for all. Enough is enough. I will never again sit back listen to such drivel/lies about Gold w/o speaking out....
And I did reply to the previously posted News Article.

Regards....YGM.

mikal

(05/26/2002; 18:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76609)

Media plays up terrorism at their master's behest

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=101...
�
Economic Optimism Expected to Buoy Stocks
May 26, 2002 09:10 AM ET � By Chelsea Emery
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Look for investors to dip their toes back into stocks in this holiday-shortened week as bets on an improving U.S. economy pull cash out of safe-haven pools of gold and bonds.
Don't look for any of that cash to come out of defense stocks, though, as Wall Street stays on guard for potential attacks following warnings from Vice President Dick Cheney that another strike is "almost certain," and as tensions in the Middle East remain white hot.
And while most fund managers expect low interest rates and resilient consumer spending to buoy stocks in coming weeks, lower-than-expected consumer confidence data or an attack could send investors scrambling for the shore again.
"I feel an upswell coming, but it's being camouflaged by warnings of another terrorist attack, bombings in the Middle East and India and Pakistan's nuclear capability," said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $60 billion. "But if we get through the weekend without significant events, the markets will pick up positive momentum."
The four-day week will bring scant corporate profit reports to guide Wall Street. Retailer Costco Wholesale Corp. COST.O is among the few companies scheduled to reveal quarterly results.
In the vacuum, investors will scrutinize a raft of economic data, including consumer confidence figures, expected on Tuesday, and productivity statistics, expected on Friday...
.....But should more time pass without strikes in the United States, stocks should resume an upswing, fund managers and traders said.
That is, of course, unless economic data points to weakness in consumer spending or corporate productivity.
"Any substantial deterioration could spook the markets," said John Orrico, manager of the $11 million Arbitrage Fund. "But my sense is that they'll hold onto their (higher) trends and the markets won't be too disturbed." ...
.....Interest rates at 40-year lows and some improved profit reports from companies as diverse as doughnut chain Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. KKD.N and housewares retailer Williams-Sonoma Inc. WSM.N have helped boost enthusiasm for stocks.
"You want to own stocks when the economy is improving," said Simon, who expects the S&P 500 to rise by mid-to high-single digits by the end of the year. "Absent terrorism fears, the market would be higher." ...(click link for more) Who can argue against doughnut prosperity? "Enthusiasm"? More like paralysis. This article simply bears no resemblance to objective economic reporting or analysis. "Attack", "War", "Disturb", "Terror", stand between us and our easy riches, not the real world. Americans are getting conditioned for something treacherous.

Old Yeller

(05/26/2002; 19:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 76610)

"Accursed Hunger for Gold"

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/020526/17/1ox4t.html
Could it be a accursed hunger to protect one's wealth?

If that is the case,why then,is it accursed?

Note the writer makes mention of yearly derivative trading totals;260,000 tonnes or double the estimated total of all gold ever produced.

Something's accursed in this equation,don't think it's physical gold,though.

DOWNUNDER

(05/26/2002; 19:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76611)

RE PLACER DOME - - - - Hedger OR non-hedger ?

A company here in Oz that I am invested in (AOR) is now subject to a takeover bid from Placer Dome.(Thanks to the earlier posters who alerted me to the takeover as I always read USA Gold before checking the local bourse.)

Btm line is that I was going to get out of AOR soon anyway as they are quite heavily hedged & the Mgn director in my opinion is no real friend of gold.Because of the takeover bid shares were suspended on the ASX until 10 minutes ago and are currently @ $4.54 --up $1.06 (30.5%)

Can someone please tell me what Placers reputation is as far as hedging is concerned -and are they held in high regard by gold investors or not? TYIA

Cavan Man

(05/26/2002; 19:25:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76612)

Andy Smith

Mr. Smith is likely referring to the paper proxies for physical ownership. This, I think, is a real possibility. Further, since Mr. Smith (maybe a shill) is no fool, he likely has a closet full of bullion.

Lamprey

(05/26/2002; 19:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76613)

DOWNUNDER

Placer Dome is quite heavily hedged -- notice their share price has not kept up with the light/non-hedgers.

Unfortunately, I'm on my way out the door for the evening...but my 2 cents worth of non-investment advice is that you might do well by taking PDG's offer for your Aurion shares and looking elsewhere (make sure physical is included in your portfolio mix).

Cavan Man

(05/26/2002; 19:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76614)

The world has passed many by (and by)...

Mr. Smith is no exception.I wonder which central banks he is referring to? Andy, you can't be serious.

Cavan Man

(05/26/2002; 19:43:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76615)

Sir Jimbo: On SA mineral nationalization

I don't think this is fulfillment of any sort of internet prophecy. I think it is simply an indication that some serious long term money is going to be made in said minerals soon.

DOWNUNDER

(05/26/2002; 19:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76616)

@MIKAL - - - - Re Message 76331

Hi there Mikal -- as you are up & about,it may be a good time to alert you to a reply that I posted re asking the meaning of the word "Shanthi" which you used in closing a post.

I would appreciate knowing the meaning/translation of this word.TYIA

Sierra Madre

(05/26/2002; 20:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 76617)

Cyanide is missing...

This, that and the other...

You all know a considerable quantity of cyanide is missing since a truck loaded with barrels of the stuff was hijacked in Mexico. About 25% of the poison was recovered. The rest has not been found.

Now, why would anybody want to make off with a large amount of cyanide? Well, let's see. Someone who does not like the present Mexican government might want to spill a little here or there, and then present a set of requests...

Or they might just present the requests quietly and in that case, what would the Mex. Gov't do? I guess, fork over. Or effect some changes - which I can't guess at the moment.

But there is another thought. What if the cyanide finds its way across the very long frontier with the US? A few gallons in some city's water supply would have deadly effect.

Who would want to do this? Plenty of people all over the world are not happy with the US.

However, a country "X" that wants to provoke the US into a war that basically favors country "X" and no one else, might want to use the stuff to push the US into a blind fury and thus, move against...Iraq? (Now that that scheme seems to have been put on hold, probably much to the disgust of country "X".)

We don't know anything, we can only surmise. But that missing cyanide is not going to show up in any barter market.

Sorry for this dismal post. Gold at $68? Don't make me laugh! Why not at $5, like some Congressman a few years ago predicted? Gold at $68? A. Smith, your opinion of the intelligence of mankind is just too low. We're dumb, but not THAT dumb! In fact, I don't think I'll be able to get much more yellow stuff, as by the time I have some cash, it will be out of reach.

Sierra

Cavan Man

(05/26/2002; 20:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76618)

(Dandy) Andy Smith (last comment I promise):

HOW LOW CAN HE GO?His last forecast for POG was USD$100.00. His confidence for the product has now waned USD$32.00. This must have be a long weekend for the other side eh Andy? Also, for a man in your position; sorry to say I personally cannot take you seriously with a name like "Andy".

Cavan Man

(05/26/2002; 20:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76619)

@Sierra

Sell your silver! Also, a certain someone is out of the country during a period of many warnings. Coincidence?

mikal

(05/26/2002; 20:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76620)

@DOWNUNDER

Shanthi=Siochain=Peace=Shanti=Amen=So be it=And so it is=Ahum=Om,etc.

Mexican

(05/26/2002; 20:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76621)

Will the tension between India and Pakistan lead to war?

http://islamweb.net/pls/iweb/misc1.etstYes = 51%
No = 20%
Don't know = 29%

As of 05/27/02.

Saludos!

MX

GOLDENPROPHECY

(05/26/2002; 20:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76622)

GOLD AND SILVER INFO AVAILABLE BY MONTH FROM MAHENDRA

SHARMA IS NOW AVAILABLE ON

WWW.WORLD-PROPHECIES.COM

IT IS WORTH READING AND PREDICTING THAT GOLD PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO GO A LOT HIGHER, LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

YGM

(05/26/2002; 20:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76623)

Downunder....

PDG....Very heavily hedged in Gold and also in Silver....I believe they have a few million oz of Silver Hedges....I know I would follow Lapmrey's lead and drop any association with PDG....Mergers are always a hint of possible deflections of problems in many cases? No?.....FWIW.....YGM

GoldnSilver2002

(05/26/2002; 20:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76624)

1984 and andy smith

I had to laugh when i heard andy smiths comments on gold at 100 per oz!Man i can see their desperation,they truly have run out of real options or gimmicks.NOw uder seige they send out their media pawns(after payment of course) to blurb out "Sell your gold".Gold is the best performing sector this year and people are pulling out of the u.s markets.Now in total panick ,their demise,now imminent,coming more quickly than anyone expected.How much longer will investors get ripped of for billions and be given a mere apology? While Merill Lynch pays off the govt $100 million,investors get zero!Can this get anymore blatANT.Japanese minister announces Japan ready for recovery!Ha,just take everything they say "double talk" and turn it around.Here ill show you how it works.The recovery is coming next quarter,means holy crap we are in trouble,there is no recovery in sight.Sell gold means buy gold quickly and "buy and hold" means "sell its crap!"

The current financial system is a mess based on quickly waning confidence.They are going to pass this on to the sheeple by giving hyper inflation they are now hiding,very poorly through blatant gold manipulation.If you want to make money dont listen to the analysts,do your own research!

YGM

(05/26/2002; 20:58:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76625)

US..Won't Abandon Central Asia....

http://emperors-clothes.com/news/bbc1219.htmMany other interesting articles here @.....
http://www.tenc.net/

YGM

(05/26/2002; 21:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76626)

Financial Warfare to Lead to Demise of Central Banking.........

http://www.nadir.org/nadir/initiativ/agp/free/chossudovsky/demise.htmEXCERPT:

FINANCIAL WARFARE TO LEAD TO DEMISE OF CENTRAL BANKING?
By Michel Chossudovsky (professor of economics at the University of Ottawa, and author of "The Globalisation of Poverty, Impacts of IMF and World Bank Reforms", Third World Network, Penang and Zed Books, London, 1997.)

"Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men". (Franklin D. Roosevelt's First Inaugural Address, 1933)

OTTAWA, Canada - Humanity is undergoing in the post-Cold War era an economic crisis of unprecedented scale leading to the rapid impoverishment of large sectors of the World population. The plunge of national currencies in virtually all major regions of the World has contributed to destabilizing of national economies while precipitating entire countries into abysmal poverty.

The crisis is not limited to Southeast Asia or the former Soviet Union. The collapse in the standard of living is taking place abruptly and simultaneously in a large number of countries. This Worldwide crisis of the late twentieth century is more devastating than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It has far-reaching geopolitical implications. Economic dislocations has also been accompanied by the outbreak of regional conflicts, the fracturing of national societies and in some cases a destruction of entire countries. This is by far the most serious economic crisis in modern history.

The existence of a "global financial crisis" is casually denied by the Western media, its social impacts are downplayed or distorted; international institutions including the United Nations deny the mounting tide of World poverty: "the progress in reducing poverty over the [late] 20th century is remarkable and unprecedented..." The "consensus" is that the Western economy is "healthy," and that "market corrections" on Wall Street are largely attributable to the "Asian flu" and to Russia's troubled "transition to a free market economy".

EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS......Cont'd @ Link

****Avoid the fallout from this war...Physical Gold...YGM

Canuck

(05/26/2002; 21:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76627)

@ Jimbo

Jimbo-Bob-Dude,

You are worried. Are you up? If you are worried bail out; a little.

I have been pleading and begging and convincing my old lady for 4 years to get into gold. Finally about a year ago I promised her that I would not lose 'one red cent' of her money in gold. I would cover her losses and she could keep the profits. (leverage?)

She took my offer.

She gave me $10,000 and I invested it in a conservative (?) gold fund. After 3 months she was up a little, after 6 months she was up alot. I told her we should shave off the profits. The 2 or 3 thousand was put into T-bills leaving the 10k.

After another few months another 2 or 3 thousand was put into T-bills. Eventually the fund nearly has paid for itself, the original $10,000 and 8 or 9 thousand shaved off and resting in 'cash'. If gold falls off a cliff and I lose the 'original 10k' I have little to cover. If gold runs a major spike I am 'in'.

My point.

If you are worried about the SA stocks, trim back. If one continuously plays the 'double or nothing' eventually one has nothing. A 100% investment is a dangerous game, unless of course if one can AFFORD it.

This is called a 'loss-limit'. Use it to your advantage.

I started with 10k, will bow out at 8,500. If 10k turns to 12k, I peel off 2 and 10k (net)is now my new limit, 12 turns to 14 and 12 is my limit, etc., etc.

Make a profit and be sure TO WALK AWAY WITH (part of) IT.

Canuck.

The Invisible Hand

(05/26/2002; 21:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76628)

The United Socialists of America

Husky (05/26/02; 17:58:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 76605)
Zorro Chapman and SA stocks
[Confiscation] only happens in third world countries run by 'socialists'. Sheesh, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
==
That's what they thought in Russia before 1917 also.

Waverider

(05/26/2002; 21:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76629)

DownUnder

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=ABX&d=c&k=c1&c=HGMCY,GG,PDG,DROOY,GOLD,MDG&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=lCheck out the attached chart - Black Blade has posted it on a number of occassions - I've added PDG for you. Notice that the hedgers have underperformed the non-hedgers in the past six months. BTW, I had the same nice suprise last week with my silver junior. Cheers,
Waverider

Black Blade

(05/26/2002; 22:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76630)

Placer to cut Auriongold hedges

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020526/minerals_auriongold_hedges_2.html
Snippit:

SYDNEY, May 27 (Reuters) - North American gold producer Placer Dome Inc (NYSE:PDG) said on Monday it will reduce the gold hedge book of takeover target AurionGold Ltd if its bid for the Australian miner is successful.

"Our intention is to reduce the size of the book to bring it more in conformity with Placer's policy, which is to have a modest amount of hedging, and leave most of the upside to our shareholders," Placer president and chief executive Jay Taylor told a media teleconference.

With bullion trading at its highest level in more than two years, AurionGold had already planned to reduce its forward sales exposure to 60 percent from 86 percent of its total reserves over the next two years by delivering gold into its hedge book and by increasing its reserves. Placer was also cutting its existing hedge book to around eight million ounces by the end of the year.

Gold hedging -- selling unmined nuggets at fixed prices -- has been a popular industry tactic to guarantee revenue and thwart cyclical price downturns. But critics assert the practice stymies market-driven price moves. It has also punished some heavily hedged companies, which actually lost money when they were forced to buy back gold hedges at higher prices than they had agreed to sell under options agreements.

Black Blade: The mad scramble to merge is on. The Mega-Hedgers really are feeling the heat now. Of course Mega-Hedger Placer and minor insignificant player Aurion (also hedged up to its neck) won't make much of a dent. It is more like two drowning men trying to climb over each other to get out of the water. Actually it is more of a non-story. The fact is that the "Day of the Hedger" is over and the Meg-Hedgers are likely to suffer horrific losses before this is all over.

Gandalf the White

(05/26/2002; 22:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76631)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

10 th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
===
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/26/2002; 22:49:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76632)

REPOST for Sir OZ

Black Blade

(05/26/2002; 22:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76633)

Gold production falls to 7-year low as exploration cut

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/26/1022243290609.html.
Snippit:

The rally in gold prices to 30-month highs has come too late to arrest the decline in Australian gold production, with March quarter production slumping to seven-year lows.
Surbiton managing director Dr Sandra Close said the latest March quarter figure was the lowest quarterly output since September 1995. "The continued drop in production is no surprise, it's the direct outcome of lower exploration expenditure," she said.

"Lower exploration expenditure over the last four to five years had led to a situation where new discoveries and developments were not keeping pace with mine closures. "Also, some of Australia's larger, long-term producers had now come to the end of their lives," Dr Close said. In recent months Kidston (Placer Dome) and Mt Leyshon (Mount Leyshon Gold Mines) in north Queensland have stopped production after running out of reserves. In the golden state, Western Australia, the Boddington mine (Newmont, AngloGold and Newcrest) and the Mt Charlotte mine (Newmont and Barrick) are close to the end of their life.

Black Blade: This is the case worldwide. Mines are depleting resources and not replacing reserves. There will be a sharp fall off in new mine supply over the next three to five years. Then it will deteriorate fast as it takes anywhere from 5 to 7 years to start a new mine, and then maybe another year or so to start producing Gold. Gold prices should move considerably higher as a result. Don't even be concerned with the Central Banks, even if they do sell any reserves (not likely when prices are rising), they only sell to each other or to very select members of "the club" (the BoE auctions were only to LBMA members and not to the "riff raff").

Black Blade

(05/26/2002; 23:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76634)

Gold retailers struggle to honour margin calls

http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=52472
Snippit:

The consistent rally witnessed in the gold price during the last couple of weeks has revived memories of 1999 September-October period when several small to average-sized gold traders had to struggle in order to honour the margin calls from wholesalers.

Gold closed $321.35 an ounce on Saturday, creating a two and half year record. According to a top gold trader, if the price doesn't stabilise within a few days, many in the trade would find it difficult to raise the margin on the 'unfix' trade arrangement they have entered with wholesalers.

"More money is currently going towards the excess margin. And hence the stock replenishment has taken a backseat," a jeweller who has been running an outlet in Dubai for the last couple of years revealed.

Black Blade: Oh my, those margin calls.

(05/26/2002; 23:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 76635)

gold price

$$$$325.70$$$$
Because that's what it is going to be. Gold price increas will be 10.00$ per month until hedgebooks blow out and then the moon

Black Blade

(05/26/2002; 23:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76636)

'Gold run a load of bull' - analyst

http://www.mips1.net/C2256BC2002A8603/UNID/LCLY-5AHPLD?OpenDocument
Snippit:

LONDON - The present bull market for gold will not stop the "stampede" by central banks and other official holders that has seen them cutting their bullion stocks substantially, warned Andy Smith, analyst at Mitsui Global Precious Metals in London. Ironically, central bank disinvestment from gold was likely to accelerate as gold miners reduce hedging and sell less bullion themselves. "The exit for the central banks has been widened," Smith told delegates.

To conclude, Smith returned to one of his favourite themes � the possibility that eventually gold would go the way of silver. For many decades central banks used silver as their main physical asset but abandoned the "silver standard" in the late 19th century. "Silver fluctuated since then about a commodity price parity, despite strong official buying from time to time," he pointed out � and despite the efforts of the Hunt brothers and Warren Buffet when they bought big quantities of physical silver. The central banks started seriously to sell their gold stocks late in the 20th century, Smith pointed out. If, as a consequence, gold "catches down" with silver, the price would eventually settle at US$68 an ounce.

My response to Andy Smith at miningweb:

Since Andy fancy's himself an expert on Gold. My question is: It the CBs are selling their Gold reserves, who is it exactly that is buying?

According the World Gold Council's own data, the official CB Gold reserve is still at about 32,000 tons - the same as 20 years ago. So please, oh learned one, tell us unfortunate peons - who pray tell is buying this Gold?

Could it be simply entries from one CB to another? We await your words of wisdom exalted one!

- Black Blade

Of course, Andy is no rocket scientist. He has repeated this drivel for years and even predicted a POG sub $150 before it would go up, and this prior to the recent rally. I am sure that now he will claim that he foresaw this rally as a "wise old sage", but that is dubious at best. Now he crows again. Quite pathetic really. Even more pathetic that miningweb wastes so much bandwidth on such nonsense.

Waverider

(05/26/2002; 23:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76637)

WGC: Gold Demand Trends May 2002

http://www.gold.org/finalgold/gold/Gedt/Gdt39/GDT_no.39_final.pdfHaven't read it yet but here's the link for Gold Demand Trends for Q1'02 (pdf file). (If it's already been posted this is for those of us who missed it :) Enjoy!

Sierra Madre

(05/26/2002; 23:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76638)

The tenor of discussion on this site...

seems to me to be growing more and more agitated. There is apparent a great underlying unease, expressed in worries about multiple things.

Maybe something rather nasty is brewing, and we are all sensing the danger. Paranoid? Perhaps...

But, let us all enjoy life, enjoy living, and hope for the best. We have all done what we can, and more is not asked of any man. To all the good spirits reading, Good night and God Bless!

Sierra

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 00:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76639)

Mining analyst water cooler chatter

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BC200687A2F?OpenDocument
Snippit:

LONDON -- As is now customary, Miningweb presents the good, bad and ugly during the Association of Mining Analysts conference held in London on Thursday, 23 May.
"The ownership of gold has suddenly become respectable." Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives and former chief economist at Robert Fleming.

"This is a miner-led rally rather than by investors". Andy Smith, Mitsui Metals precious metals analyst, commenting on gold producers reducing their hedge books.

"The best thing they (the central banks) can do is tear up the Washington Agreement and get on with life." Andy Smith.

Amid laughter: "No!" Andy Smith's one-word response to James Turk of GoldMoney on whether there's even the slightest possibility the gold price could have been rigged because government has altered its price in the past.

Black Blade: It appears that Mitsui could be in serious trouble on the "short" side of Gold. Andy must have received his marching orders and is now on the front lines to defend the Mitsui position from a frontal assault of a rising POG.

The rally is due to increased demand illustrated by the buying frenzy in Japan, a boom of Gold buying in Germany, etc. Also, there is a reduction in new mine supply and a definite shortage in Gold supply going forward. And yes, there is a serious reduction in forward selling too � and that must chap some Mitsui hide.

Tear up the WA? I do agree it would be good to liberate Gold to the people, however, Central Banks sales are only from one CB to another or occasionally to another member of "the club". Proof is in the WGC data showing that official reserves haven't declined in over 20 years! With all that alleged selling I find that very strange.

Why do you think there was laughter when Andy was asked that question? Everyone knew his ridiculous answer. Government intervention was employed in the past with Gold sales in attempts to cap the price and defend the US dollar. One notorious episode was when during the Johnson administration Gold was sold to head off the French raid on Fort Knox with repatriated US Dollars. It was a disaster. Even today no one knows how much official US Gold really exists. Has it happened again and again? Who knows, as George Santayana said: "Those who do not remember the past and condemned to repeat it".

Belgian

(05/27/2002; 01:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76640)

Andy Smith....At your service.....

This particular clown, made my day ! The archi prototype of a very "usefull" Broehaha fool, at the service of a very specific master. What an outstanding contra-indicator, and yes indeed Sir Rich...a very laughable (amusement only) one. Genuine 100% nonsense.
But Andy is in the know of a top secret inside information : A lone alchemist has finally found the magic formula to produce synthetic Gold from dust ! Formula, soon available on the net for amateur producers (no patents pending). Swiss and Belgian governments decided on storing "pure-chocolate" as to replace Gold as monetary asset and reserve. The *Goldfinger* movie has been banned and all copies taken out of circulation. Filed in Top Secret.

Allow me to put it this way : 253$ POG was a 25 years ATL.
The present, incredibable small, pricerise of 20%, provokes idiotic ultra-negative statements by Gold-Authorities with *koelie* status !? Now, I'm looking forward to Andy's next statement. It just feels so good when the deafening silence, surrounding Gold, can't be maintained anymore !
325$ MUST be already a VERY painfull pricelevel ...oh, sorry...an excellent salesprice for central bankers, who still stand ready to lease Gold, should the price rise...WHOEAAAHAAAAAA ! What a comedy ! Thanks Andy and please never leave us.

Charly Chaplinman was informed by Nelson Mandela, personally, that GFI was qouted on NYSE with only one purpose : TO CONFISCATE AMERICAN INVESTORS SAVINGS !
South African goldminers decided unilateral that their productivity will strongly increase when all mines are nationalized and POG goes down to a more acceptable level of 68$ per ounce ! Yes, the African Gods went crazy.

Dear forumers, isn't it great fun to have all these Gold Authorities around us to keep the debate going when we've run out of jokes ?

PS : During Bush Euroland / Russia tour...the word "war" was used 144 times during public speeches. What a wonderfull world...ohhhh yeahhhhh (L. Armstrong).

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 02:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76641)

Alleged Gold Expert Andy (on Drugs?)

I find it amusing that this charlatan who claims to be on the inside of the Gold business, completely missed this rally only to jump on the bandwagon after the fact. Then he made a prediction of somewhere about $350/oz. Previously he made a prediction that Gold would fall to about $50/oz. Now he is predicting $68/oz?

This is quite funny actually. I suppose from day to day he just wets his finger � points it in the air, and determines which way the wind is blowing at the moment. It wouldn't be so pathetic, except that his reasoning is usually quite faulty. Much of the time it is the usual pathetic excuse such as "the Central Banks might sell". Yeah, so what? They only sell to each other. The World Gold Council has determined that there are 32,000 tons of official Gold in the world's central banks vaults. That is nearly identical to the amount 20 years ago. Yet we hear cries that the central banks have been very big sellers of Gold.

One can sense the anger in Andy as he demands that the central banks "tear up" the Washington Agreement. Perhaps Mitsui is in deep trouble (again). This time with Gold. Now that the POG has surpassed $320/oz., he has suddenly become quite agitated. He is squirming like a worm on a hook.

We have seen how the Mega-Hedgers have become anxious as the fundamentals for Gold have turned positive. They are merging and acquiring smaller operators in a desperate bid to feed their onerous hedge books. Where have we seen this before? Can you say Cambior and Ashanti? I knew you could. Is it any wonder that the Non-Hedgers shares have dramatically outperformed the Mega-Hedgers? Is it any wonder that the central bankers and charlatans like Andy and his masters are worried? Just check out the rising number and intensity of the articles that quote and reference poor little Andy. I am really enjoying this.

- Black Blade

Spartacus

(05/27/2002; 02:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76642)

Japan April Retail Sales Fall 0.8%, Stunting Recovery

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APPG2PRU0SmFwYW4g

Tokyo, May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese retail sales declined in April, led by cars and clothing, signaling the increase in consumer spending that probably helped the economy return to growth last quarter is already petering out.

Sales dropped 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, last month from March, as auto sales dropped 5.6 percent, government figures showed. Retail sales have fallen the past three months after rising 2.7 percent in January. From a year ago, retail sales fell 4.1 percent.
------
The drop in spending is the latest evidence Japan's reliance on exports for growth may not be enough to pull the economy from its third recession in a decade.

Belgian

(05/27/2002; 02:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76643)

More fun....when combining all sorts of Gold Analyses

South African mines will be confiscated/nationalized, because POG's real value is 68$ per ounce. For this reason, more and more mines do stop and reverse all hedging and refuse to collect any further profits from the predicted POG decline (320$ >>> 68$). Isn't worth it.
Russia and China announce more official Gold accumulation for later exchange against chocolate-monetary reserve.
ECB marks its Goldreserves to market, quarterly as to service (inform) chocolate producers on future price levels.
Andy Smith has been hired to preside the next Chocalate Agreement to be signed in Washington. Choco(mit)sui will transform into a cacoa trading company before confiscation of all cacoa plantations.

Interest rates, worldwide will turn negative (minus 10) as to make the Total Global Debt of 300% world GDP, a bit more bearable. Holding confetti will be punished with a decrease of 10% per year as to encourage chocalate holdings.

Once the old WA expires in 2004, Gold will be set free for central banks to lease and sell obsolete Goldreserves and be able to finally take their massive profits at the price between 150$ and 68$. They are massively shorting the barbaric, after all, aren't they ? Cacao producers will be forced to accept Physical Gold for their product as only possible settlement.

Don't tell us, you haven't been warned in advance ! Miningweb, soon to be renamed, Plantationweb. Go Andy, go !

Central Banks are hiring a few more Gold Authorities to promote the transition from Gold to chocolate and to manipulate/manage POG at more reasonable prices (68$-target) to facilitate the transition. Call IMF/ECB/BIS. Thanks.

Topaz

(05/27/2002; 03:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76644)

BB, Belgian

That Andy gets on your goat eh? Is he just the reincarnation of that other doyen in shorts, one Marty Armstrong who, despite continually poo-pooing the precious, was (reportedly) found to have stashed away several thousand Oz's of Bullion?....and on the WGC site I noticed China holding 500T Au @ 2.5% reserves. Now thats a lot of Bullion.....BUT also "a helluva LOT of FIAT!!"

Topaz

(05/27/2002; 03:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76645)

The Chocolate Standard.

Of course the most beneficial aspect of the above would be the effortless detection of those engaged in coin clipping....they'd be the Fatso's with Pimples ;-)

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 03:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76646)

It's a gold rush, but not yet for the Swiss

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1093587-6094-0,00.html
Snippit:

AMAZING. Gold is a currency again. The narrow debate about whether gold had lost one of its main qualities that of being a reserve currency has now disappeared in gold's strong rise in the past months. This goes to show how fickle intellectual arguments can be in the face of the power of the markets.

Black Blade: Not news here that Gold is a currency, however, what is interesting is that people who should know better are only now making this "discovery".

Spartacus

(05/27/2002; 03:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76647)

It's a gold rush, but not yet for the Swiss

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1093587-6094-0,00.html
AMAZING. Gold is a currency again. The narrow debate about whether gold had lost one of its main qualities that of being a reserve currency has now disappeared in gold's strong rise in the past months. This goes to show how fickle intellectual arguments can be in the face of the power of the markets. An oblique view of the re-establishment of gold as a reserve currency can be observed by comparing the dollar gold price with the gold price in Swiss francs.
----
As the graph suggests, gold did rise in Swiss franc terms at the start of the year, but from then it has been trading in a very narrow range.

And since April, while gold was seemingly rising against all comers, gold in fact declined against the Swiss franc.

The same trend is noticeable, just to a lesser degree, when comparing the dollar gold price with the euro.

What has been happening is that in Swiss franc terms, gold has been stable because the decline in the dollar price has been counterbalanced by the rise in the gold price. Hence, the rather flat profile of gold, even though it has seemingly been rising in the currency in which it is normally priced.

But for a real bull market to develop in gold, it ought to be rising against all currencies. And interestingly, this is what seems to have developed, but only very recently.

Up till then, gold was acting as a form of currency hedge. Hence it was not performing very well against the Swiss franc which, among the range of currencies, is traditionally the most defensive domain because of the Swiss franc's historical stability and the overall strength of the Swiss economy.

Currency speculators have, therefore, sought to defend themselves against dollar weakness by moving into the Swiss franc, which has strengthened recently against the dollar faster than gold has risen.

Now it seems that returns on gold are being measured against returns on all other currencies available. Gold has, in this sense, again become a form of currency.

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 03:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76648)

Re: Topaz - Dandy Andy

Don't get me wrong here, I look at Dandy Andy as more of a caricature of the typical "Gold Analyst" than anything else. For me this is all just "cheap" entertainment. Stupid people like dandy Andy make good targets for such ridicule. It is a sad commentary on the twentieth century education system though. Cheers!

- Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 03:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76649)

Black Blade re.Andy Smith

Black Blade
You made me laugh with your title Andy on drugs?
Either that or you don't know nyet. One day gold going to 355 and now this 68$.
Buy gold and silver and the unhedged shares

(05/27/2002; 03:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76650)

Blacl Blade

BIG ERROR
either HE not you. ha ha
I know you know better and I had made a boo boo trying to post to quick

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 04:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76651)

My Birthday Present

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/i-asia-106898.html
Click on the link and see my birthday present - No not her! What she's holding.

- Black Blade

Topaz

(05/27/2002; 04:03:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76652)

Spartagus

G'day S,
I've been watching that for several Wk's too....my conclusion is a little different though.
If we consider the dollar as a derivative of the gross domestic product of the USA, (forgetting the "overhang" of it's reserve status)....and POG as a derivative of Bullion....we can comfortably state "Papergold is re-establishing itself as a Fiat Currency par excellance"

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 04:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76653)

Gold nudges three-year high on war fears

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/asia-106898.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold surged close to its highest level in almost three years on Friday as investors piled into the safe-haven asset on Middle East violence, fears of an India-Pakistan war and a terror attack in the United States.

It tracks the spot market price which rallied to $323.60 an ounce in overnight trading in New York, crowning a 16 percent price gain since the start of this year. An investor favourite this year, gold is enjoying its first bull market in a generation and rose each of the last seven days on nervousness about war clouds over India and Pakistan and threats of further terrorist attacks on American targets.

With the dollar hitting year-lows against major currencies and jitters over the outlook for U.S. corporate profits, gold together with other traditional safe bets such as the Swiss franc has come back to the frontline of investment activity.

Indian and Pakistani forces again traded fire across a ceasefire line in disputed Kashmir, at the heart of their hostility, though fears of war eased just as an international peace push entered full swing.

Gold's rally has also been supported by a move by leading producers to cut back on the amount of gold they sell in forward markets to guarantee their income and instead be more exposed to rising spot prices.

Black Blade: The situation in central Asia is getting more tense during Pakistani missile tests, a build up of over 1 million troops along the border, Indian warships deployed off of coast, both nations air forces on alert and moved closer to the border region, artillery barrages across the border, etc. One minor misstep and then "mushrooms" will start sprouting.

Graefin

(05/27/2002; 04:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76654)

Black Blade...

Could it be your birthday today???

The Victorian

(05/27/2002; 04:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76655)

A PLAGUE ON ALL EXPERTS!

I recently convinced my in-laws to take a chance and buy some shares in a couple good mines. They already own some physical, purchased pre-Y2K. It has been an ongoing task to keep them from sellling it and putting the money into their constantly losing stock market "investments." (You could make a good living by shorting whatever they buy.)

My husband and I recommended HGMCY and BGO. I sent them off with instructions to buy one or both of these based on the fact that I have made wonderful gains on my self-directed IRAs recently which are in gold stocks. Later in the day they announced with pleasure that they had seen their stock broker and had indeed purchased some gold shares. What did they buy? Ashanti, Placer Dome, and a bit of MY recommendation - Bema. ARGH! I hit the ceiling. I have limited knowledge compared to most of you here, but I do know that I would NEVER tell anyone to buy shares of a hedged miner, certainly not of Ashanti, who I remember dimly had blown up their hedgebook once before. I would appreciate if anyone could briefly outline for me what had happened to Ashanti and how many years ago this took place.

After peeling me off the ceiling, listening to me patiently while I ranted about hedged mining companies, in which I predicted meager gains from those two companies, they called their stock broker and asked him if he knew what a hedged mine was. I ended up on the phone with him. Here is his logic, and I'd love to hear any of your comments on his theory: By selling them ASL and PDG he was moderating their risk from being in BGO. He believes that the hedged miners are safer and less volitile, so that if POG drops, the hedged COs will drop less than Bema. I rather doubt this would be the case, but I welcome your insights on this.

A half hour later the way we resolved this was that they decided to sell one of the two hedged miners and put that portion into BGO. I told them to dump ASL. Now, it looks like PDG is possibly making an aquistion which may help them. The timing certainly seems to support the case that they know it's not wise being heavily hedged in this rising POG environment. Perhaps they will do fairly well after all??? Should I continue to try to extricate them from PDG in coming weeks, or should I leave well enough alone?

As a point of interest, the broker said he has had an increasing number of people come to him, interested in gold. He has been recommending small positions for many of his more aggressive investors. It amuses me to hear brokers expound on how risky gold shares are when they are the only sector of the market making consistent gains.

A pleasant and safe holiday to one and all here :-)

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 04:38:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76656)

Conspiracy?

http://www.evenmo.com/money.html
I stumbled across this (at the link). Curious isn't it? I don't happen to have a twenty on me right now, but "interesting". Some people have way too much time on their hands ;-)

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 04:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76657)

Re: Graefin - Not Yet

It's not my birthday yet. I probably should have said "wish list", but then my caption would probably have been "OK, her too". Hmmm...

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Golden Bear

(05/27/2002; 04:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76658)

The Victorian (msg#: 76655) A PLAGUE ON ALL EXPERTS!

FYI, I just saw a report on CNBC Australia regarding Placer's offer for AurionGold. It stated that it would have little effect on the POG as Aurion had already stated that it was reducing its hedge book from 86%!! to "only" 60%.

Cheers.

Graefin

(05/27/2002; 04:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76659)

Black Blade...

That's a tall order for a wish list!!!

Graefin

(05/27/2002; 04:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76660)

Black Blade

Are you sure that is ALL you want?

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 05:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76661)

Re: Victorian

I wonder how much this broker thought about investor risk when the dot.coms, telecoms, and techs were bubbling? I don't give investment advice so I won't start now. Given the choice, a profitable non-hedger will even outperform a mega-hedger in a falling POG market. Consider that the non-hedger has already "been there" and had to work with very low cost reserves over the last few years to stay profitable. If they were profitable then (and even a few were spinning off high dividends), then they are likely to be even more profitable in a rising POG environment. Of course Gold shares are counter-cyclical and I for one would rather be exposed to a rising POG. If I was concerned about a falling POG - why would I even consider investing in a Gold miner then? Definitely study the markets and make an informed decision.

Anyway, it is good that you got your in-laws to start with a physical position first. It is always good to have a secure solid hard asset position for portfolio insurance before venturing into the more speculative stock investing waters. What ever happens I know that I have a good solid base of physical PMs to fall back on. I consider this my diversification into alternative "currencies". Consider that the US Dollar is weakening and the world is a less secure place these days. Cheers!

- Black Blade

For disclosure - I have Gold, Silver, and Platinum (bullion and numismatic coin), and shares of non-hedger Gold miners HGMCY, GG, and GFI.

Belgian

(05/27/2002; 05:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 76662)

The Central Banks's dilemma !

*How* do the central banks have to admit the total failure of their money system ? Same problem for any husband or wife to tell that their love affair is over and have been unfaithfull for so long ! Painfull and inevitable reality.
Everyone knows that the imposture went on for decades and noone dared to expose it. That's the dilemma of today for CBs and Institutions in their diversity of interests (dollarblock/euro/others).
Only 2 questions remain : When and How do we tell them ?
The Andy Smiths are the ones who's job is to postpone the announcement on the "when" question. Gold Giants and ECB/BIS will give the answer on the "how" question.

Will you be waiting patiently for the answers on both question...without the Physical already in Possession ? Or do you really want to accumulate at this brandnew magic number of 68$ an ounce ? Good luck dear fellow poster.

Gold Standard

(05/27/2002; 05:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76663)

@ Sir Gandalf

$$$$335.10$$$$

The June settlement will rest there because it is the exact line of the oft-maligned 3 day MA minor H&S candlestick reversal, coupled with Venus rising into Virgo just prior to sunrise this week. So there!

Spartacus

(05/27/2002; 06:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 76664)

Topaz

Topaz (5/27/02; 04:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76652)
"Papergold is re-establishing itself as a Fiat Currency par excellance"

Yes Sir, Currently the gold market remains fundamentally the same, it is still dominated by paper trading. Hopefully the Eurosystem and its support for honest gold markets and valuation (free gold concept) will change the situation.

Christian

(05/27/2002; 07:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 76665)

Commodity gold vs Credit creation gold

*****330.20***** I hope this to be the price the manipulators let the price rise to...--Central Banks sell physicall gold to other central banks via swaps. These swaps are used to reprice commodity gold into credit creation gold on the books. Credit creation gold is priced in the $9000 +or- area. Interest rates worldwide could turn negative to make the total global debt more bearable. Holding fiat dollars will be punished with decreasing value of fiat. -- Debt cannot repay debt in the aggregate. Only earnings can retire debt. The arrival of raw materials times price man debited, nature credited delivers earnings. A sound money system must be based on a commodity money, or at least use a commodity as backing for currency. It takes production times price to generate aggregate income for an economy. It is only a matter of time the U.S.Government is forced to reprice gold, and use the resulting increase in monetary reserves to establish a trade dollar backed by gold. The domestic dollar will be backed by real estate. Under the Doctrine of Parents Patriae, "Government As Parents" all assets of the American People, their persons (people themselves) are held by the Depository Trust Corporation, 55 Water Street, NY, NY., secured by UCC commercial liens, which are monetized as "debt money" by the Federal Reserve.

Christian

(05/27/2002; 07:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76666)

(No Subject)

$$$$330.20$$$$$

slingshot

(05/27/2002; 07:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76667)

Money foldings

Black BladeNow this is scary. Looks like a building in the ST. Louis Archway. Not a bridge on a boat.
Slingshot

YGM

(05/27/2002; 08:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76668)

30 STATES JOIN SECURITIES PROBE!

http://money.cnn.com/2002/05/24/news/companies/wallstreet_probe.ap/index.htmEXCERPT:

30 states in probe

Probe of possible conflicts of interest at brokerage houses gets wider.
May 24, 2002: 6:57 AM EDT

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) - Securities regulators from 30 states have joined a task force investigating alleged conflicts of interest among stock analysts at Wall Street brokerages, an organization representing the regulators said.

The formation of the task force was announced a month ago after New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer revealed results of an investigation he said showed that Merrill Lynch & Co. analysts misled investors by promoting stocks they privately disparaged in e-mail messages.

Twelve states were initially involved in the task force's investigation into Merrill Lynch's major competitors, but more states followed suit in recent weeks, said Ashley Baker, a spokesman for the North American Securities Administrators Association.

"We're looking at this, I think, in a pretty simple way," Baker said Thursday. "Was there a fraud? Were people privately holding one opinion and publicly issuing another?"

For more info on financial stocks, click here

Spitzer and Merrill Lynch this week announced a settlement requiring the firm to pay a $100 million fine to be shared among New York, the other 49 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

The deal also calls for Merrill Lynch to stop rewarding research analysts for helping to bring in lucrative investment banking fees for arranging mergers and new stock offerings.

Instead, analysts are to be paid solely for the quality of their stock research. Spitzer says the move should help prevent analysts from giving shares of some companies positive ratings to help win investment banking business from the same companies.

Merrill Lynch and Spitzer announced their settlement Tuesday, and the Salomon Smith Barney investment banking division of Citigroup (C: Research, Estimates) Inc. said Wednesday that it would adopt the terms of the settlement affecting analysts.

Baker could not immediately provide a list of the 30 states that that have joined the task force, though officials have previously said New York, New Jersey and California were leading the investigation.

The state regulators have split up the work of investigating individual brokerages, but Baker declined to provide details, including the names of the firms.

A source familiar with the investigation identified the firms as Salomon, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS: Research, Estimates), the Credit Suisse First Boston division ofCredit Suisse AG (CSR: Research, Estimates), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH: Research, Estimates), Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. (MWD: Research, Estimates), Bear Stearns Cos. and the UBS PaineWebber division of UBS AG (UBS: Research, Estimates).

Those firms were also issued subpoenas by Spitzer, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Merrill Lynch is no longer under investigation because the firm settled its case, the source said.

If the task force's investigation uncovers analyst conflict of interests at other brokerages, the association will encourage state regulators to adopt settlements similar to the one Spitzer reached with Merrill Lynch, Baker said.

YGM

(05/27/2002; 08:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76669)

Hmmmmm!...Now Where Else Do These Guys Ply Their Scams?

THE GOLD DERIVATIVE MARKETS!A source familiar with the investigation identified the firms as Salomon, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS: Research, Estimates), the Credit Suisse First Boston division ofCredit Suisse AG (CSR: Research, Estimates), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH: Research, Estimates), Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. (MWD: Research, Estimates), Bear Stearns Cos. and the UBS PaineWebber division of UBS AG (UBS: Research, Estimates).

***Maybe from all this investigating the trail will lead to the Derivatives Markets.....Gold Scam!......We can only hope!!!!....YGM.

RobotGuy

(05/27/2002; 08:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 76670)

Graefin - - - Re: Robotics

I am a programmer of those beasts you speak of. At my previous job I travelled extensively in the U.S. to various major motor corporations across the country. Kansas City Mo, Dallas, Indianappolis, Janesville Wisconsin, Atlanta Georgia, and the list goes on. I now work for a Windshield manufacturing facility. I have done my share of robotic maintenance as well. Your husband would probably recognise the names of several robots I've had the 'pleasure' of working with, Nachi, Kawasaki, Motoman, Fanuc, ABB, OTC, and there might be a few I've forgotten. It's a high paced environment with a lot of demand when you're good, unfortunately unless you work for a production environment it often involves extensive travel, and not much of a personal life. You can burn up a bunch of years really quickly, but if you're smart (not me) you can stash away some kick-ass coin.
Traditional work hours averaged 70-90 per week, lately I've been stuck on 40 with no travel, and it isn't such a bad thing. The imaginary recession disolved a big chunk of employment in this plant, but somehow strangely I'm still here.

Yes, I am what they call me - - - RobotGuy.

YGM

(05/27/2002; 09:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76671)

Sierra.....

Sage words last nite...""But, let us all enjoy life, enjoy living, and hope for the best. We have all done what we can, and more is not asked of any man.""......Sierra.

I myself am probably the only one with bitter tenor from time to time...and if so I humbly ask understanding......
.....I'm sure I must be irritating from time to time.....
Martin Armstrong, Goldman Sachs, Andy Smith, Gordon Browne, BOE, etc. All the Gold Bashers/Minipulators get under my now thin skin and have for years. I will probably never see again the amount of monies that the War on Gold has cost me.
Believe me it cost a marriage and early retirement and much more, so although I do try to remain/get mellow, I am an ex-YGM in Bankruptcy over Gold Mining...."Thanks for your calming words & influence"..This forum has been a salvation of sorts as has GATA..Hasta luego....YGM

sector

(05/27/2002; 09:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76672)

@BlackBlade Andy Smith's Blubbering

Mitsui went long...Andy looking at his shoesIn stark contrst to Sumitomo and Mitsubichi Mitsui went long on all TOCOM contract through October 2002,

Usually, S&M are 100% short all the time in all maturities...a fact alone that proves collusion [Probable underwriting by BOJ]. Mitsui is normally right there with them but with a little hedging.

In the last month however, Mitsui has gone long. The fair inference is that they aren't on the BOJ gravey train.

Another fair inference is that Mitsui is under water on their gold derivatives and that Andy Smith is doing a bad Ernst Weltke [Bundesbank] imitation...pretending that they haven't been hit by a runaway gold train.

Perhaps someone close will tell him that it REALLY IS ALL OVER.

Again the real problem for goldbugs is deciding how much to load onto the gold train.

Gandalf the White

(05/27/2002; 09:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76673)

THANK YOU Sir Gold Standard !!!!

Would EVERYONE please take notice of an EXCELLENT posting of the "WHY?" segment of the POG "Guess". (The Hobbits LOVE it !)
This shows extensive planning and deep thought. (Tounge in cheek.) The Hobbits are still working on this one to try and duplicate the star plots.
<;-)
====
Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 76663)
@ Sir Gandalf
$$$$335.10$$$$
The June settlement will rest there because it is the exact line of the oft-maligned 3 day MA minor H&S candlestick reversal, coupled with Venus rising into Virgo just prior to sunrise this week. So there!

Gandalf the White

(05/27/2002; 09:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76674)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

11 th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
===
<;-)

YGM

(05/27/2002; 09:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76675)

COMING DEFAULTS........(FOA & ANOTHER ALSO PREDICT SAME)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/hommel052902.htmlEXCERPT:

Impending Gold Futures Default

The coming default on gold futures contracts by the short sellers and large bullion banks will surprise many (because they don't know what it is and therefore cannot anticipate it), and will most likely act to catapult gold prices into 4, 5, or even 6 figures per ounce.

I have written this article for several audiences. First, for those people new to the gold market, who might be thinking about getting into gold somehow, but are not sure what to buy. Second, I'm writing to those already in the gold market, so that they know what's coming, and so that they don't sell out too soon.

Third, I'm writing for seasoned gold investors and/or a few very wealthy individuals who believe that gold futures contracts represent a sound investment vehicle. There are about 90 of these wealthy people according to Andy Smith, who was quoted in Thom Calandra's CBS Marketwatch report of May 24th, as saying, "Large-account speculators who are "long" gold futures on the COMEX in New York have surpassed 90 in number." (Up from 77.) These 90 people, or funds, or entities, desperately need to get this article into their hands. I don't know who they are, nor do I know how to contact them, but I hope that the publication of this article at gold-eagle.com will help to reach them. Readers, if you know anybody who might be one of these 90 large-account speculators, or if you know anybody who might know somebody who might be one of these 90, please forward this article to them.

If these wealthy people are convinced, and stop playing paper games, and start buying gold bullion instead, the price will really take off, and will cause the default on the futures contracts to happen that much sooner.

Cont'd...@ Link.

Gandalf the White

(05/27/2002; 09:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76676)

OOPS --- Laughing so hard, I can not type !

(Tounge in cheek.)
should be TONGUE !!
ROFL
<;-)

YGM

(05/27/2002; 10:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76677)

Reasons to Own Gold & Silver Site by Jason Hommel

http://www.goldismoney.com/Take note Goldhearts...He recommends/links our own host
"USA Gold" as a place to buy your "Physical Gold"......

YGM

(05/27/2002; 10:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76678)

More Than We Ever Wanted to Know....

http://www.americanfreedomnews.com/About the potential Nuke exchange between Pakistan & India......An exercise in Madness!

R Powell

(05/27/2002; 10:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76679)

The Victorian

I've a question regarding your conversation with the broker. Was the broker aware that some companies had heavily hedged their future production before you explained this fact?
I'd guess that most brokers understand the concept of hedging but not many would understand the unique situation of hedging through forward sales. Their idea of hedging is closer to the concept of buying the strongest companies in a sector while perhaps shorting the weaker ones. Even without implimenting this strategy, their nature impulse when confronted with a client that wants to buy in any particular sector (in this case gold producers), would be to buy the largest companies in the sector. The XAU is a weighted index with Barrick being the most influential.
Go(l)d bless the HUI or the so-called BUGS index, Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. I'm guessing that most stock brokers know as much about the gold/silver situation as I know of brain surgery. These people are little more than saleman with a little knowledge of current news slickly blended into the company's latest salespitch. One current pitch for your bedazzlement is "diversifying for uncertain times". Another is "asset allocation" inplying that they are trying harder to find the winners.
I'm curious as to whether I'm anywhere near right. Did the broker understand your objections to his/her picks?
Happy Holiday
Rich

mikal

(05/27/2002; 10:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 76680)

From USAGOLD Live News- A new energy paradigm slowly gains momentum

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
� Tuesday, May 28, 2002�
Project team proposes early implementation of fuel cells
A project team working to promote the development of fuel cell technology on Monday proposed that the deadline for easing and abolishing regulations related to the cells be moved forward to 2005 from 2020...
.....The cells are expected to enter a commercial stage in 2005, and a market for fuel cell products is expected to start expanding in 2010.....
....Fuel cells, which emit no carbon-dioxide, are expected to become a key energy source in the future.
The Japan Times: May 28, 2002......(click link for more)
Come now, we KNOW you can do better than that. Someday VERY soon, you'll have no choice. Visible energy progress is slated to be a political, social, and financial priority, after the "critical mass" of public opinion is reached.

RobotGuy

(05/27/2002; 11:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76681)

Mikal - - -The obvious secret of the fuel cell

I've done a little research on the functionality of the fuel cell, and there's one thing that a lot of people seem to overlook. Fuel cells operate on most types of combustible gasses including hydrocarbons. In order to achieve zero emissions however, we need to operate the fuel cell on hydrogen and oxygen, byproduct = water. The major problem with this scenario, is that it takes the same amount of energy to convert water into it's composing atoms (Hydrogen and Oxygen) as it returns when re-introduced. This energy must come from somewhere, and the inventing powers seem to think hydrocarbons are the only massive energy source that could match the world's energy demands as far as transportation is concerned. We could use nuclear reactors to separate the water, but then you have the problem of radioactive waste, one we are already overdue on a solution for.
The fuel cells are a wonderful idea, and quite an impressive concept, but I don't believe we will solve the world's energy problems as cleanly as we're anticipating.... Now cold fusion,.... there's a real charmer! If we could figure that one out, we'd all be living it up!!

Jimbo

(05/27/2002; 11:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76682)

Canuck: What me worried?!

Canuck, yes I'm worried, but not to the point of selling even one of my gold shares. I learned in the aftermath of the dot.com fiasco to be aware of any/all issues that might affect my investments. Of course, I failed at the dot.com game (thanks to a lousy adviser and my own ignorance). Now that I'm invested so heavily in gold stocks, I don't want to fail again. My investment buddies tell me all the time not be "fooling around" with gold. They know I'm a believer in Durban, and warn me that the S. African political environment could unravel at any time. I think they're wrong...at least, on a short-term basis (five years?). But I do know one thing that boosts my confidence: my portfolio is growing a lot faster than their's.

By the way, Black Blade, congratulations on your birthday! Many thanks to you, Canuck and all the others who provide so much useful information on a daily basis!

Sierra Madre

(05/27/2002; 12:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76684)

Cheap hydrogen generation...

I generally stick to the central subject of gold, but since others have expressed thoughts about fuel cells and hydrogen, I just want to throw out some info I happen to have:

A company by the name of Genoil has a proven process to refine heavy oil into light grades, that is much cheaper than any other process. It uses hydrogen to do this job. This process can become vitally important.

The company is also working on perfecting a very cheap way to produce hydrogen, which would make its refining process cheaper.

The cheap hydrogen could also further the possibility of widespread fuel cell use.

I have no interest in the company. Do your own due diligence.

Sierra

Old Yeller

(05/27/2002; 12:15:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76685)

September 1,1981 article by one Alan Greenspan

http://www.capitalstool.com/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=8⊤ic=222
The subject;restoration of the gold standard for the currency of the world.The dilemma?

"Yet,even those of us who are attracted to the propect of gold convertability are confronted with a seemingly impossible obstacle:the latest claim to gold represented by the huge world overhang of fiat currency,many dollars."

Fast forward twenty-one years later,compare money supply and US dollar debt obligations(30 something trillion) to increased gold supply through the intervening years.Note the POG in September,1981-around $450 in 1981 dollars.

Something is seriously amiss in this equation,the equation which was formulated for the most parts by the author.Now,how did he manage to avoid this"impossible obstacle" and how many "associates" were involved?

Belgian

(05/27/2002; 12:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76686)

The 30 years POG chart !?

A FWIW profound interpretation of that intriging Big Picture on the price of the Valuable Gold :
This is NOT the pattern of a dinosaur on its way to extinction ! The recent 20 yrs ATL of 253$ is still within the range of "vitality" for the precious. A very healthy down-limit after the parabolic spike of 10 years from 1971.
Compare this pattern with the dotcoms, wich passed away.
Their parabolic rise couldn't hold a proportionate phase of consolidation for eventual recovery . Gold (POG) has been "consolidating" during the past 20 years after the 10 years of initial parabolic spike. Even a low of 200$ would have validating this observation/interpretation.

Clown Andy with his 68$ out of the blue nonsense is saying as much as Gold being a *dinosaur* . Bad joke !

Once we agree on what this 30 year pattern is intrinsically saying...the future evolution of POG becomes much more plausible : A GIGANTIC rise as to complete (extend) the *natural* configuration of such a pattern (parabole+consolidation). The continuation will be a multiple of the 25x fold rise of 1971 > 1980 !

POG's ATH of 850$ hasn't decimated (85$). POG can't go bankrupt in contrast with any enterprise. To decimate POG is as much as saying that Gold is worthless for ever.
Again, take a look at everything that decimated . The chances for recovery are very slim indeed in these cases and are rather exceptional.

Get yourself a nicely magnified long term chart of Gold and ask an interpretation and projection of other specialized technical analysts. They don't have to know Gold's fundamentals.

It is against this background that TG's 30.000$ for POG are very, very realistic in my very humble opinion.
Dotcoms and even microsoft with no profits at all or dividents were able to go parabolic in no time when the confetti chase for those papers started and ended at maniacal hights. Than why should the very valuable and precious yellow be and remain an exception to this "natural" phenomenon ?

As lilliputans, all we can do is buy as much physical in possession as is possible and reasonable. This way we are doing our part in laying the fundamentals for that natural revaluation that is embedded in that Gold pattern for all to see. My only drugs are coffee and sigarets.

timbervision

(05/27/2002; 13:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76687)

Belgian and YGM

In YGM's link to Jason Hommel #76677 he states "The coming default on gold futures contracts by the short sellers and large bullion banks will surprise many..." and "The point I am making in this article is that investors should avoid buying a gold futures contract, and avoid buying gold call options, because these investment vehicles are paper promises that are prone to default."

Towards the end of this same Gold-Eagle article Hommel lays out his recommendations, a 1:5 ratio of precious metal to precious metal stocks believing that stocks should be kept until gold reaches $600 to $1000 per ounce.

It seems to me that what he explains so well about the dangers of investing in gold futures (paper gold), applies to investing in mining companies, hedged or unhedged, at prices well below $600 per ounce. i.e. the gold in the ground of mining companies is as well prone to default.

Am I understanding this correctly? We hear figures of a short squeeze at the likes of JPM at $354 per ounce. Can a "when sparks begin to fly" price of gold be accurately guessed?

YGM

(05/27/2002; 14:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76688)

timbervision...

Can a "when sparks begin to fly" price of gold be accurately guessed? In my estimation...NO!...We have all watched with grim disbelief the ability of the Cartels' War on Gold unfold and how they are always able to pull another rabbit from the hat...There are so many purposes served by this same 'War' that remain as of yet undisclosed, that who knows from where the next curve ball may come...Will CB's demand payment from Bullion Banks and Hedge Funds over Gold Loans/Leases at $354.00 p/oz or will they have more phoney Gold Sales such as the BOE did...Will the Cartel allow Gold to rise so far as to cause collapse of the Derivatives Markets? Not as long as they need them to funtion as they do in suppressing the real VOG!...BELIEVE THIS OF "FOA" IF YOU BELIEVE ANYTHING HE TOLD US...THE MOVE UPWARD IN GOLD WILL COME SO DRAMATICALLY AND UNEXPECTED THAT NOONE WILL BE PREPARED...(not exactly his words, but you get the meaning)

I feel that of all he (FOA) & Another tried to drum into our heads was to be Physical and not to wait/wade in PAPER, hoping to exit and catch physical before it got away in value...As he said it's a very dangerous game to play thinking you can catch a fast moving train. I doubt when Gold goes for that train ride no common man will get any purchase order filled, but oh how easy it will be to sell!

Consider this..Intuition has led many here to own physical Gold and then we came and rec'd varying degrees of education from here,(USA Gold) G-E Editorials, GATA, Howe, Murphy,(extensive)...Turk, Veneroso, Hamilton, my God the list is endless...Why worry about judging the fuse length or flash-point of Golds' launching, just own the real thing and relax while trying to make spare cash for more...

PS: I'm a perfect example of one who finds it extremely hard to take ones own advice in that last statement!

YGM

(05/27/2002; 15:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 76689)

Gold Derivatives Collapse......

http://www.google.ca/search?q=Gold+Derivatives+Collapse&ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&hl=en&meta=Today on Google search >>Gold Derivatives Collapse<<
you get 6300+ hits.....3-4 years ago you got nothing!

30 States join SEC Investigations...US Dollar Default talk...Gold Bull Market...Paper Gold Collapse Queries...
100 Million Dollar Fines...Hedgers Buybacks...GATA in Mainstream Press...Talk of Folding WGC...BOE Gold Sales Criticized in Parliament...Bullion Banks & Other Financial Institutions Solvency Questioned Due to Derivative Exposeure...US Treas. put NASDAQ at 900 in future...Nukes in C Asia...Times change rather quickly no?

Mexican

(05/27/2002; 15:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76690)

$$$$298.5$$$$

Don't run in the opposite direction of the herd.

The frequency of insider sales and registrations for intended sales by gold mining executives has risen sharply over the past few weeks. Corporate announcements about new secondary share offerings have also suddenly risen.

Saludos!

MX

Belgian

(05/27/2002; 15:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76691)

@ Timbervision

*Technical* price-targets for Gold can be suggested and some might even be correct intermediate tops or bottoms.
Gold has no final (fixed) price target on fundamental grounds. Its Constant Value has/is and will always be re-priced, according to the circumstances. Valuable water has also many different prices in time and space. That's inherent to everything that has eternal *value*.

When Gold's Value shall be reflected in its approximate price...all past perceptions on Gold derivatives (mine-shares included) will differ dramatically !
Free Gold means that the Value will be allowed to reach its correct pricing into the many thousands of dollars/euro.
Andy Smith, E. Welteke, Hashimoto, A.Greenspan, The WA, W.Duisenberg, C.Thompson, and many other officials plus institutions have commented on the price of Gold, strongly but discretely (cryptic) suggesting about its Value in so many different ways. The Gold statements are changing in tone and explicity !

Goldbugs AND advocates are not giving up and the endless stream of better insights is building on a broader and broader educational basis. That in itself is a very positive and evidence for Gold having everlasting Value, whatever the pricelevel or offer/demand equation.

Impossible to say if and how far the POG decline from 850$ > 253$ will be retraced orderly and mechanically (technical). That is a gamble, sorry, *THE* gamble that mine-speculators/holders (without the Physical) are taking deliberately. The Andy's out there are very aware about the growing state of mind of an increasing number of goldbugs, slowly evolving into Goldadvocates, thanks to the education provided here and elsewhere.

Once any kind of goldpaper has burned one's fingers...they have a tendency to appreciate the peacxe of mind that Physical in Possession provides under different scenarios of POG rise and decline. Papergold speculations have already showed some very nice performances during the cycles of the past 20 years. But there are not enough "old" yellers left to witness about the x25 bonanza of the Physical that happened during 1971>1980.
Even during the goldstandard, there were brutal price-adjustments for the precious Physical. It happened already multiple times in the past ! Why should POG stop at that lousy 600$ arbitrary figure ? Based on what ?
Gold with its x25 pricerise was a dotcom "avant la lettre" 20 years ago !!!

One day we will all admit and accept graciously that fiat is just confetti with only a practical purpose and no intrinsic Value or whatsoever ! When the DEBTBERG meets the exponential rising *demands* of the masses of more exhuberant lifestyles for less and less efforts !!!
You can't turn this infernal spiral around. 1971 > 1980 was the hyper-inflanionarry way of running ahead. The monetarist soon discoverd this was not going to work. Then we had the hyper-deflationarry way (zero interest rates) 1980 > 2000. And we start to realize "now" that this isn't either a solution to the mis-management of our financial system. So what option(s) are left ? Extend the ongoing as long as possible with the guarantee of severe implosion of the monetary system and the best ground for starting it all over again...THIS TIME WITH GOLD IMPOSING ITSELF AS THE ULTIMATE INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM AGAINST THE COLLECTIVITY !!!!

At a certain level well into the debacle...the Gold control/capping will be left alone, automatically. When ship capsizes, you stop pumping the water (Gold) and jump into the open sea (Free Gold). Many already jumped prematurely during the 1971>1980 watermaking. The (Gold) pumps did a miracle job and pumped us back floating. How many times can a rusty ship bump into a (debt)iceberg ?

Can you guess how fast it will sink (POG-rise) this time ?
Now you can't !

Those who made a killing with mine-speculation, should be wise and shift profits into Physical before the final outburst. A very, very small amount of good/reliable minepaper can be holded to speculate on a good outcome for that particular mine that will profit enormously from the coming extravagant Gold revaluation. It is a wise + logic + balanced pole position. Gold at the present ridiculous pricing, does make this decision the much easier. With POG at 600$, we have no clue on how the situation might look like. Imagine some kind of WA for the mining industry in the not too distant future !? Only to be anticipated by Physical in Possession. This message should be delivered to all paper holders, everywhere. All those nice people trusting that their Bonds (paper/derivative) will hold the Value they thought it was worth. The present very low interest rates on all those trillions of debt-paper are not compensating at all for their inherent risks !!! Unfortunately, very few have the capacity to come to terms with this destructive danger and blindly rely on the collectivity. What a terrible mistake ! Worse...who's going to tell them ? Andy just strongly re-assured these folks that everything is OK and that a POG of 68$ will guarantee their purchasing power ! Cynical isn't it ? A POG of 68$ is indicating that the US$ will regain its purchasing power of the 1971-ties ? The ever increasing debt has to be refunded with a much stronger dollar...and this into a contracting economy with profits shrinking like hell. Very nice picture, Andy ! Thanks again. Please come overhere and join posting.

Mexican

(05/27/2002; 15:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 76692)

Re. Graefin Msg. 76574:

Hola guapa,

Hedge Funds or managed futures funds have become a driving force in the gold market of the 1990's. In the bull market in gold of the 1970's they were still in their infancy, with perhaps $500 million among them.

By the 1990's they not only had at least $25 billion under management, but a huge range of derivatives to chose from, especially in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. The leverage value thus offered added to their importance. The funds trade many things in many markets world-wide, but the impact they can have on a single commodity or currency they may target is immense.

George Soros' Quantum Fund is often credited with stimulating the gold price rise from $330 to over $400 in 1993. Equally, the funds can build large short positions, thus dragging down the price, as happened in the gold price collapse of mid-1997. The rapid expansion of the OTC options market has been of particular help to the funds, because their operations are concealed, whereas on an exchange like COMEX, the size of their position would soon be transparent
(although that is not to stop them using the exchange precisely to create an effect).

And COMEX reflected the funds importance by removing its position limit of 6,000 contracts (600,000 ounces), enabling larger positions to be run at the discretion of the exchange. The funds are heavy users of options (hence the term managed future funds being rather dated) and their
decisions are technically driven by mathematical models, which are often programmed for multiple speed entry and exit from a particular commodity, currency or financial future.

Hope that helps!

And yes, I know, we know, that it's past your bedtime again.

Un abrazo muy fuerte!

MX

Aristotle

(05/27/2002; 15:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76693)

YGM, I liked your reply to timbervision about timing

As far as an understanding of Gold and the Gold market is concerned, I think it's safe to conclude, on the whole, the people gathered here at USAGOLD have developed a keen understanding of the fundamental workings and fatal flaws of our Gold market.

Those who have progressed the furthest in their understanding, especially with regard to this timing issue, are among the tall standing few who have forsaken the fanciful notions shared by other Goldbugs of leverage. We (the few) have come to know that paper may be folded many times in an effort to make a solid connection to real Gold, yet because it remains naught but paper itself, it cannot conduct/transfer Gold's specific benefits which matter most when paper (in ANY form of contract) is respected least.

Paper investment insturments that are commonly believed to provide opportunities to leverage the benefits of Gold are generally misunderstood by the novice Gold investor. They think that the primary benefit of Gold is something that is represented in its price, and therefore, if they can gain leveraged exposure to its price, they will somehow gain leveraged exposure to Gold's benefits. They will not.

What these novices fail to understand is very subtle, but very VERY important -- that the primary benefit of Physical Gold is not it's price, but rather its immunity to default. No matter how hot the winds may blow in a financial crisis, Gold remains an unalterable property that my be bought, sold, traded, or reacquired as desired or required by community or personal circumstances.

Regarding a "sudden and explosive revaluation" for Gold (based on items here previously discussed,) the hotshot novice Gold-leverage investors might privately or publically claim they don't have any worries about missing out on the timing issue. The lame reason they use to justify their confidence is that they are "Already in!!," meaning, they've established their positions in leveraged paper, and have every intention of riding it from here on out, or even adding to it (margin calls, etc) on any pull-back.

What a laugh!!!

Having missed the boat already by failing to grasp the primary concept (in which event their "paper" instruments may perform exactly like paper and nothing like Metal), their bold determination not to miss out on the timing of Gold's inevitable market-based moon-shot revluation will only guarantee that they'll be out of position to enjoy the singular benefits of Gold-in-hand.

Only after they watch their leveraged "paper gold" suffer widespread discredit and then withness a rejuvenated market in Physical trade will they understand how the old widespread pursuit of leveraged "price ownership" delivered an illusion, while at the same time to a few of us wise ol' men delivering lifetime opportunities for acquiring real Gold at extraordinary -- one might say "leveraged" -- discounts!

Gold. Get you some. Only the real thing will do. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(05/27/2002; 16:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76694)

Belgian 76691

A tip o' the hat to ya!

Gold. Gettin' us some. --- Aristotle

Sierra Madre

(05/27/2002; 16:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76695)

Gold at $30,000 US

There is a very old theory, probably going back 2,000 years or more, that the State determines what is money, and what its value is.

I don't think this theory is correct, but a lot of people in power (Establishment) still act as if they believed it, whether they actually do believe in it or not.

The suppression of the price of gold, is a practical expression of the theory. The price has been suppressed, because it has been deemed in the interest of the State, to suppress it. (Along with the lure of private gain via the gold carry-trade)

Today, the power of the State, through the Establishment, is vastly, incomparably greater than it has ever been in all of History.

In order for the gold to hit $30,000 Dls., you would have to have a situation where all the enormous power of TV, the press, the banks, the brokerages, the universities and their pointy-headed profs, the great corporations, etc., would have to be stymied. It is possible, but, I think, still a great ways off.

You would have to have a situation where PUBLIC OPINION has run away from the Establishment, where the herd has stampeded out of control. Knowing the very great power of the Estabishment to manipulate public opinion in the US, and that the Establishment has close ties with other Establishments in foreign countries, it is difficult for me to visualize a situation where a true, out-of-control stampede can take place.

The herd may be allowed to move to a certain point, to take pressure off: say a rise to $400. Then, the power of the opinion manipulators (there are think-tanks devoted to this manipulation, as a quasi-science) will focus on "taking profits", etc. and that sort of defusing of fear will prevent the stampede, for a long time, I would venture to say.

Saving in gold can be "demonized" as an activity of narcs, tax evaders, anti-Americans, even terrorists.

Somewhere down the line, the S will HTF, and the stampede will take place. An Argentina-like situation may take place. But, much as $30,000 gold is an attractive prospect for a gold holder, I am not sure we shall see it any time soon.
Note: I may have said the contrary on some other posts. What do other posters and lurkers have to say about the development of a gold stampede?

Note: the population of the US is by and large ignorant of the utility of gold as an asset. So how could the population stampede into gold, if it ignores gold? Why didn't the Argentinians stampede into gold last year, or the Mexicans in 1994/5? Because they don't think about gold.

Sierra

Old Yeller

(05/27/2002; 16:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76696)

Belgian,CPI adjusted gold chart

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/CPI-Gold.gif
Mr.Smith's $68 dollar claim would appear somewhat far-fetched.

Cavan Man

(05/27/2002; 17:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76697)

@sector

Why not load it all. I understand you can hit a #1 iron eh?

R Powell

(05/27/2002; 17:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76698)

Aristotle //paperbashing

Of paper investors,you said:

"They think that the primary benefit of Gold is something that is represented in its price, and therfore, if they can gain leveraged exposure to its price, they will somehow gain leveraged exposure to Gold's benefits. They will not."

Would it be okay to leverage the POG if I do so while stating that I'm not leveraging the "primary benefit" but a secondary or third or fourth benefit?
Is it wrong for a poor man to gain from years of hard study by investing in that which he thinks might gain himself and his family a little FIAT security. I know, you think the market will default and I'll not receive my gold. I don't now and never have had enough money for gold, this is all about FIAT PAPER MONEY. Enough to pay all my bills and gain some security. Hell, enough to buy some gold!
Physical possession is unquestionably the safest way.
I'll not agrue that but continually bashing all paper traders without anything new to add accomplishes little. I'm sure everyone loves physical but your rants of physical in hand to the absolute exclusion of all other investments is IMHO opinionated and misleading. You sound like Gollum.
I have no illusion that my words will change your opinions and I'll not speak out again but I believe it needed saying.
Respectfully,
Rich

slingshot

(05/27/2002; 18:10:30 MDT - Msg ID: 76699)

Gold $30,000.00

Sierra MadreI'd like to think that the Goldbug is a step ahead of the average Joe with varied degrees in his education of Gold and its repondsibilities,advantages and capabilities. One although being estatic over gold reaching $30,000.00 would have to ponder what kind of world he is living in. Would it make the difference if one had one ounce or one hundred? We all have been bashing this so called cabal and truly like to see the Goldbug have his day but I do not like the idea or the possiblity of becoming one of them in the process. They have already caused much pain and sorrow in the world and will continue to do so till the end of the FIAT game. What would this goldbug like to see? A correction of the POG to the stockmarket of one to one. Within the range 3500 to 5000. Would that inflict enough injury to knock them off their pedestal while maintaining stability in the market?
At the same time vindicating the goldbug and his long wait for justice. Yes, I want my cake and eat it too. I fear it is all or nothing in this game. If given the chance could there be a compromise. Only who would be doing the compromising. A poster stated that buying one ounce at a time had no effect on the market. That it was the PTB that would end the game when they wanted. To me it is not true.
If the Japanese and their buying influenced the market to raise the POG, then buying one ounce has its own power.
Maybe a national gold buying day would do it.

The posts are getting intense!

For all in the ARMED FORCES Past and Present. Thanks.

Slingshot----<><><><><><><>
<><><><><><><>
<><><><><><><>

Leigh

(05/27/2002; 18:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76700)

PARTY TIME!

Black Blade's Birthday Ballad

Tonight we gather around our screens
To honor Black Blade on the day of his birth
A birth that brought forth a man so keen
That thousands now honor his writings of worth.

California "bugs" - let all take note
Grasshoppers he rescued from darkness and chill
Yes, Black Blade cares for the least of these
His noble heart forgiving them still.

He culls nearby forests, lakes, and skies
Of God's animal creatures sent by His hand
Black Blade gives thanks as his freezer he fills
For a harvest so great in the wilderness grand.

A man of many interests, he grasps
Energy, gold, foreign lands, and finances
Yet his favorite words, oft-repeated, are simple:
"Get out of debt now, store food, don't take chances!"

Yet, just for tonight, we'll party hard
Forgetting the world and its well-deserved woes
Let's eat, drink, and be merry together
In honor of Black Blade, in defiance of foes.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BLACK BLADE!!!!

YGM

(05/27/2002; 18:25:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76701)

Rich Powell.....

The Paper Debate.....As a paper basher myself, (hope I'm not butting in here)
I must be truthful and admit that all that money I've many times complained about losing Gold Mining was made on Gold and Diamond Stocks :>))

I just hope those who have 100% gains take some profits and get some Physical Insurance....I respect everyone's quest for cash to buy a better life, no matter how they achieve that and I should myself be less opinionated in these matters myownself.....Ken

Cavan Man

(05/27/2002; 18:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76702)

R Powell

Hey Rich. I second that thought FWIW. I've not chosen your path but do believe the "american dream" is all about choices and the freedom to choose. His "rants" do definitely come across to me as being high and mighty as well as less than gracious. This "Aristotle" has a raw edge. I remember a different tone. I am not impressed.

slingshot

(05/27/2002; 18:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 76703)

ITS OFFICIAL!

Black Blades BirthdayHappy Birthday Black Blade.

The Ballad has you pegged!
Slingshot--------------<>

R Powell

(05/27/2002; 18:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76704)

YGM // Cavan Man

Thanks!

YGM

(05/27/2002; 18:52:45 MDT - Msg ID: 76705)

Aristotle (05/27/02; 15:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 76693)

Thank You....I am indeed gratified that you read my rambles....You have given much of yourself to this forum and it was not lost on most...Much appreciated....Ken

sector

(05/27/2002; 19:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76706)

@CavenMan...In a Thunderstorm a 1 iron is Essential [As you already know]

...because even GOD can't hit a 1 iron.

Therefore one is safe from the "Bolts".

YGM

(05/27/2002; 19:10:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76707)

BLACK BLADE.....A Yukon Ballad for You! (A personal favourite)

Happy Birthday old Son......There were Vikings in the Goldrush Too!The Law of the Yukon

This is the law of the Yukon, and ever she makes it plain:
"Send not your foolish and feeble; send me your strong and your sane --
Strong for the red rage of battle; sane for I harry them sore;
Send me men girt for the combat, men who are grit to the core;
Swift as the panther in triumph, fierce as the bear in defeat,
Sired of a bulldog parent, steeled in the furnace heat.
Send me the best of your breeding, lend me your chosen ones;
Them will I take to my bosom, them will I call my sons;
Them will I gild with my treasure, them will I glut with my meat;
But the others -- the misfits, the failures -- I trample under my feet.
Dissolute, damned and despairful, crippled and palsied and slain,
Ye would send me the spawn of your gutters -- Go! take back your spawn again.

"Wild and wide are my borders, stern as death is my sway;
From my ruthless throne I have ruled alone for a million years and a day;
Hugging my mighty treasure, waiting for man to come,
Till he swept like a turbid torrent, and after him swept -- the scum.
The pallid pimp of the dead-line, the enervate of the pen,
One by one I weeded them out, for all that I sought was -- Men.
One by one I dismayed them, frighting them sore with my glooms;
One by one I betrayed them unto my manifold dooms.
Drowned them like rats in my rivers, starved them like curs on my plains,
Rotted the flesh that was left them, poisoned the blood in their veins;
Burst with my winter upon them, searing forever their sight,
Lashed them with fungus-white faces, whimpering wild in the night;

"Staggering blind through the storm-whirl, stumbling mad through the snow,
Frozen stiff in the ice-pack, brittle and bent like a bow;
Featureless, formless, forsaken, scented by wolves in their flight,
Left for the wind to make music through ribs that are glittering white;
Gnawing the black crust of failure, searching the pit of despair,
Crooking the toe in the trigger, trying to patter a prayer;
Going outside with an escort, raving with lips all afoam,
Writing a cheque for a million, driveling feebly of home;
Lost like a louse in the burning . . . or else in the tented town
Seeking a drunkard's solace, sinking and sinking down;
Steeped in the slime at the bottom, dead to a decent world,
Lost 'mid the human flotsam, far on the frontier hurled;
In the camp at the bend of the river, with its dozen saloons aglare,
Its gambling dens ariot, its gramophones all ablare;
Crimped with the crimes of a city, sin-ridden and bridled with lies,
In the hush of my mountained vastness, in the flush of my midnight skies.
Plague-spots, yet tools of my purpose, so natheless I suffer them thrive,
Crushing my Weak in their clutches, that only my Strong may survive.

"But the others, the men of my mettle, the men who would 'stablish my fame
Unto its ultimate issue, winning me honor, not shame;
Searching my uttermost valleys, fighting each step as they go,
Shooting the wrath of my rapids, scaling my ramparts of snow;
Ripping the guts of my mountains, looting the beds of my creeks,
Them will I take to my bosom, and speak as a mother speaks.
I am the land that listens, I am the land that broods;
Steeped in eternal beauty, crystalline waters and woods.
Long have I waited lonely, shunned as a thing accurst,
Monstrous, moody, pathetic, the last of the lands and the first;
Visioning camp-fires at twilight, sad with a longing forlorn,
Feeling my womb o'er-pregnant with the seed of cities unborn.
Wild and wide are my borders, stern as death is my sway,
And I wait for the men who will win me -- and I will not be won in a day;
And I will not be won by weaklings, subtle, suave and mild,
But by men with the hearts of vikings, and the simple faith of a child;
Desperate, strong and resistless, unthrottled by fear or defeat,
Them will I gild with my treasure, them will I glut with my meat.

"Lofty I stand from each sister land, patient and wearily wise,
With the weight of a world of sadness in my quiet, passionless eyes;
Dreaming alone of a people, dreaming alone of a day,
When men shall not rape my riches, and curse me and go away;
Making a bawd of my bounty, fouling the hand that gave --
Till I rise in my wrath and I sweep on their path and I stamp them into a grave.
Dreaming of men who will bless me, of women esteeming me good,
Of children born in my borders of radiant motherhood,
Of cities leaping to stature, of fame like a flag unfurled,
As I pour the tide of my riches in the eager lap of the world."

This is the Law of the Yukon, that only the Strong shall thrive;
That surely the Weak shall perish, and only the Fit survive.
Dissolute, damned and despairful, crippled and palsied and slain,
This is the Will of the Yukon, -- Lo, how she makes it plain!

Robert Service:

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 19:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76708)

Thanks All, But...

Thanks all, but my birthday is still a few weeks off yet (July). The sentiment is appreciated. However, the two Gold kilo bars in the picture would be a nice birthday gift ;-)

- Black Blade

Waverider

(05/27/2002; 19:37:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76709)

Black Blade : Happy Birthday

http://www.langara.com/pages/promotion.htmHere's a birthday present for you - the best salmon and halibut fishing in the world! Happy Birthday & Cheers!

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 19:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 76710)

Musharraf dares India to go to war

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=11196809
Snippit:

NEW DELHI: With one eye fixed firmly on his domestic constituency and the other on the international community, General Musharraf delivered a hard-hitting speech that granted no fresh concessions on the terrorism issue and essentially dared the Vajpayee government to go to war.

What he did, therefore, in his televised address was to try and rally support for himself in the name of defending Pakistan. It was the desperate verbal equivalent of the missile tests he conducted last week. As Prime Minister Vajpayee has found out nothing unites a nation behind its leader so much as the threat of war. And Musharraf appears to have taken a conscious decision to up the ante.

Black Blade: Pakistan and India edge closer to the abyss.

Waverider

(05/27/2002; 19:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76711)

Rumor????

Black Blade - don't open your present yet! :)

Leigh

(05/27/2002; 19:44:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76712)

Black Blade

Now, Black Blade, don't kill this party. How about we say your "Forum birthday" is Memorial Day, and your real birthday can be in July? (My birthday's in July too, but I wouldn't argue with someone who wants to celebrate it now!)

Have some cake, Black Blade!!

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 20:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76713)

Re: Leigh

Sounds good to me! This way I can have my cake and eat it too? Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 20:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 76714)

Re: Waverider - Fishing

http://www.angling-travel.com/taimen.html
Actually I hope to get out of country to fish Taimen (Mongolia) and even Peacock Bass (Venezuela - Amazon/Orinoco watershed). Perhaps in the next couple of years.

One of the largest living freshwater fish on earth, the Taimen (Hucho Taimen) lives within the waters of various rivers and lakes. The Taimen is a particularly ferocious fish which can often attain weights of 50 kilos or more. If you are a fisherman, Mongolia is destination to be experienced and definitely not to be missed. Typically lemmings, rabbits, and prairie dogs are used as bait for Taimen. The Taimen resembles an elongated rainbow trout on steroids!

Now that's my kind of fishing!

Cheers!

- Black Blade

AUthentic

(05/27/2002; 20:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 76715)

On Paper Bashing

It seems to me, without investors the mines would not be able to produce. Therefore, those of you who have no time for mining stocks had better be accumulating your metal with a pick and a pan or risk coming across quite hypocritical. Even then, that pick is probably produced from a publicly traded company. Indeed, while I agree metal in hand is the safer investment, we still need some paper investors to keep the mines open.

Gandalf the White

(05/27/2002; 20:16:55 MDT - Msg ID: 76716)

< ; - )>>

HAPPU UNBIRTHDAY, Black Blade !!!!
Did you recieve my email and follow up on it ?
<;-)

Waverider

(05/27/2002; 20:23:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76717)

Black Blade

I may add Mongolia to my list of exotic travel/fishing destinations - sounds like a worthwhile adventure. Did you see the 230 lb. halibut hanging from the rafters in the lodge photo...not to be underestimated...it was hoisted out of the boat by helicopter. I have a beautiful 54lb. king salmon on my wall from Langara - it's a treat! Hey - have a Negro Modelo to wash the cake down! Cheers!

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 21:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 76718)

Re: Gandy

Thanks, I got all pertinent emails. For some reason my email filter shifted everything into the junk folder. I will follow up tomorrow. Thanks.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(05/27/2002; 21:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76719)

JUNK !!!!

BB --- you may need to get some NEW FILTERS !
<;-)

Brett Woods

(05/27/2002; 21:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 76720)

The Lull

Interesting that Venus is rising in Virgo this week. Means good lovin' and stability for us all and this seems to be the case at least for me lately. What a buzz Andy Smith's published comments made! I have tried to be open minded about his commentary but it certainly is in contradiction to his previous statements. I tend to agree with other posters that he might be in someones pocket, or that potentialy, someone might be in his pocket if POG rises suddenly. Although I sold Cambior (AMEX/TSE-CBJ) at the days high a while back, I lost out. As others have said, it's usually a fools game to trade in a bull market. The reason I sold was that CBJ is hedged and POG was approaching the level of some of their hedges. It's now well past there and I have an unconfirmed feeling that Mitsui and Jipangu which owns 32% of Cambior along with some other hedged gold interests are tied in their desire to see a moderation in the POG increase.

I'm blinking my eyes at the recent acceleration of U.S. interest in gold and so if I were an analyst seeking to "be right" I'd bet on a regression toward the mean (rise) and $316 rings a bell. $308 would mean a more peaceful world. Venus blocks the influence of Mars through the first week in June, so I lean in this direction. $68 when Lebennon loves Tulips.

Sir Gandalf, June settlement $$$$315.80$$$$

I feel it's the right move for the U.S. to allow the Dollar to fall toward a level equalling the Euro. U.S. will advance its export revenue beyond Germany's wildest nightmares faster than you can say Schumacher. A dip below the Euro should see export revenue to equal Germany and Japan's combined export revenue. It's a matter now of seeing what is the sensible footing, both for the Dollar and for Gold.

@ The Victorian. If I'm not wrong, the Ashanti area is also a Placer with Aluvial deposits which make for easy and cheap expansion of production. They might be joining you on the ceiling (ha ha). At least you got your friends on the happy trail.

Brett Woods

Nomad

(05/27/2002; 21:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 76721)

Boom Boom Out Go The Lights ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/05/26/wkash26.xml&sSheet=/news/2002/05/26/ixworld.html
Snippit :

'India can afford to lose 25 million people. But could Pakistan?'

Recent remarks have made clear how difficult that will be. An exasperated Western official who handles South Asia told The Telegraph last week: "The impression on the sub-continent is that nuclear bombs are just bigger bombs than other ones. There is no realisation that use of nuclear weapons would take them across a new threshold. There is a bigger gulf between them than ever."

The gung-ho, pro-nuclear mood is just as strong in Pakistan as it is in India and yesterday's test-firing of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles was greeted enthusiastically, with Gen Musharraf the cheer-leader in chief. "God is Great" he repeated three times on the anniversary of the birth of the prophet Mohammed, before telling a gathering of Islamic scholars that the test had been a success.

Earlier, the Vice Chief of Army Staff, General Mohammad Yusuf Khan, told senior officers: "Indians will get the message loud and clear that we also mean business. They must remember that Pakistan is a nuclear state - its people and armed forces are proud of that fact."

According to Lt-Gen Talat Masood, a former secretary of defence production, most Pakistanis think that death in a nuclear war with India would be justified "martyrdom".

Nomad : These Guys Are Seriously Nuts ...

shades

(05/27/2002; 21:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76722)

BLACKBLADES EARLY BIRTHDAY ANNOUNCEMENT

Hey Blackblade "CAN YOU FEEL THE LOVE " regards

sector

(05/27/2002; 21:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 76723)

@BlackBlade The India/Pak "Problem"

Thinking Bigger and BadderIndia has cancelled military leaves and there is a massive border military buildup by [100s of thousands of soldiers] and Pakistan is saber rattling with its "Missiles". Mushareff is posturing as a strong military leader at the podium accordingly.

This one seems different...starting to spiral towards a disaster [I sincerely hope I'm wrong here].

Are we involved? Secretly egging India along? Providing AWACS intel? Pak Missile intercepts ready in a secret India military support role?

Getting Others to Do the Dirty Work?

Since the US knows the ultimate source of radical, "Death to all Jews [And Americans]" Muslim terrorists is Pakistan and the Wahabists in Saudi Arabia, why not get a proxy [India] to implement a nuclear retaliatory "Demonstration War" in Pakistan. Bin Laden would have nowhere to hide with Indian guards swarming around.

The US does not have a visible deterrent retaliatory policy regarding terrorist use of nuclear weapons. Absent such a policy [Which must be public for logical reasons], the terrorists know that one cannot be cobbled together AFTER their first use against us of home-made or store-bought nukes. The President, in other words, cannot simply justify nuclear retaliation against radical Muslim centers after they have struck us. Visualize the uproar from factions that want the US crippled.

Imagine the questions "Why didn't you pre-announce a terrorist nuclear deterrent policy?" "Would that not have prevented this first use?" "Deterrence has worked for 50 years hasn't it?". These would be especially difficult to answer in the aftermath of 10,000 dead in the target US city. Not to mention the Chernoblization Effect. Who would want to work in the future near a real ground zero?

Have we Already Capitulated in the War on Terror?

A central government that suggests, as VP Cheny did last week, "Terrorist use of nuclear weapons is...inevitable", is really saying that it has already capitulated...that US citizens need to get used to a nuked city here and there. That there is nothing we can do to stop it.

This policy weakness is palpable. The Administration lacks the will to implement a strict plan to round up known ME immigration scofflaws for fear of rankling the politically correct multi-culturalists, but DO have the gall to tell us to live with nukes.

The India/Pak spiral may be the actual, behind-the-scenes retaliatory policy implementation.

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 21:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76724)

What's in Store for the Dollar?

http://www.aei.org/eo/eo14071.htm
Snippit:

In a shrinking global economy, everyone wants a weak currency, though no one says so. Each country needs a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, and a weaker currency helps to boost lagging demand at home. Awkwardly for other countries, it makes foreign goods more expensive and, thus, domestic goods more attractive. With excess capacity and a weaker currency, inflation is not really an issue. Most of the countries involved in the Asian debt crisis found themselves in these circumstances by mid-1997 and subsequently devalued. Japan, in fact, is still an economy with considerable excess capacity and is counting on help from a weaker yen and a U.S. recovery to boost exports.

A Weaker Dollar?

A new factor has emerged in the global currency markets this spring. A confluence of market events is suggesting that the U.S. economy may need a weaker dollar to drive a sustainable recovery. Since early this year, and mostly during April and May, the U.S. dollar has fallen by about 5 percent in value, while the stock market has weakened and interest rates have gone down by 30 to 40 basis points. Meanwhile, a jump in the April unemployment rate to 6 percent, the highest level since 1994, underscored corporate and market expectations of a weakening economy and weakening profits.

It will be very interesting to observe the response in the global economy should the recent drop in the dollar accelerate. American manufacturers and labor unions are screaming for a weaker dollar while the U.S. Treasury speaks uneasily about a strong dollar being in the nation's best interests. It may be in America's best interests when the world economy is strong, but it may not be in the best interests of the United States when domestic demand growth is insufficient to propel a sustainable recovery that includes a rise in capital formation.

Black Blade: Quite a good article really. As stated here over the last several weeks, a weaker US Dollar would be in the best interests of the US if a sustained economic recovery is desired. Since Gold is priced in US Dollars, the POG would rise (in US Dollar terms) as the Dollar weakens. Many have argued and stated their case that the USD is overvalued. It would appear that the race is on as nations worldwide struggle to weaken their currencies in order to grab a bigger piece of the shrinking Global economic pie. As currencies weaken, the citizens of the world will desperately seek to preserve their disappearing wealth. Much of that wealth preservation will be found in Gold. Gold has preserved the savings of many in recent years � the Asians who held Gold in 1997-1998 (Asian Contagion), those few lucky Argentines who thought to hold Gold, and now the Japanese who vicariously learn from the Argentines as the insolvent Japanese banks teeter on a mountain of crushing debt and bad loans.

Aristotle

(05/27/2002; 21:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76725)

AUthentic #76715 -- shabby analysis

You post -- On Paper Bashing:

"It seems to me, without investors the mines would not be able to produce. Therefore, those of you who have no time for mining stocks had better be accumulating your metal with a pick and a pan or risk coming across quite hypocritical."

With all due respect, pull thy head out of thy arse.

Conceivably, every mining operation in the world could be structured as closely held private companies.

Profits come from the sale of the product of their deliberate efforts to extract bits of Gold from the tight grip of Mother Earth. If, as you indicate, we need "some paper investors to keep the mines open," then they sound like poorly run business ventures to my tired old mind. In that light, why would anyone sharing your unique perspective feel either safe or even compelled to risk hard-earned monies on them in the form of publically traded stock?

Sorry for the gruff tone, but in light of your post, tit for tat is what you'll get.

Run. Run away. (from *minority* ownership in mines, that is. If you own the whole damned show, then "good for you!" I'd say.) See my post last Wednesday and counter it if you can.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the White

(05/27/2002; 22:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 76726)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

12 th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.8 $$$$ Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT msg#: 76720

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365

$$$$ 298.5 $$$$ Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT msg#: 76690
===
The action should pickup soon as the COMEX opens again !!
Do not wait tooooo long for that WINNING Price Entry.
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 22:16:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76727)

Nuclear fear: 'Death of the Indian subcontinent'

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/28/1022243318697.html
Snippit:

A full-scale nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could kill up to 12 million people instantly and injure 7 million, United States intelligence reports estimate as tension over Kashmir intensifies. The report came as Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf said today he would not start a war with India but promised to maintain support for the "freedom struggle" in disputed Kashmir.

Musharraf, a key ally in the US-led war on terrorism, has come under increasing international pressure during the most recent escalation of tensions with India that has sparked a massive military buildup, with a million troops arrayed on both sides of the "line of control" frontier in Kashmir.

Worried about the prospect of all-out war between the nuclear-powered neighbours, US President George W Bush, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders have urged the two countries to pull back from the brink and told Musharraf he should do more to prevent cross-border incursions into Indian territory for terrorism.

Musharraf said Pakistan will not initiate war, "but if war is thrust upon us, every Muslim is bound to respond in kind" and would "fight to the last drop of blood." One military analyst warned that radioactive fallout in the Himalayas would mean the "death of the subcontinent". The Pentagon's assessment of casualties found that even a "more limited" nuclear war would overwhelm hospitals across Asia and require vast foreign assistance to battle radioactive contamination, famine and disease.

Zian Mian, a Pakistani physicist at Princeton University, said the two countries were racing to expand their nuclear arsenals. "The Pakistani uranium enrichment facilities, as far as we know, are working three shifts around the clock," he said. Brian Cloughley, a south Asia military analyst and retired Australian army officer, said: "The trouble is that both sides imagine that a nuclear bomb just makes a bigger bang. "They have got no concept of the sheer magnitude of the disaster of a nuclear exchange. Radioactive fallout in the Himalayas would mean the death of the subcontinent."

Black Blade: In recent days one Pakistani General has said that "the birds" should fly � referring to nuclear tipped missiles. Also, another statement has been made that the Muslim population are ready to die as martyrs in jihad against the "infidels". Then there is the wildcard � China. China is a traditional ally of Pakistan since the border clashes between China and India several years ago. Once war breaks out, who knows if China will move against India in a bid to conquer more territory? We do live in "Interesting Times".

Canuck

(05/27/2002; 22:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76728)

@ Jimbo

I'm going to tell you a little story (my slighted opinion) that's worth as much as the next guys; nothing.

There are some stellar minds on this forum, I dare to say that there is some 'inside information' going about.

If you have been a lurker for some time I hope you have followed the discussions regarding 'super-leverage' (futures/options), gold shares (leveraged) and physical (not so leveraged?). There are those who would debate even the above, tooth-and-nail.

The 'physical gold advocate', (PGA) a term coined a year or two ago, as I see it, is a person not willing to leverage in any aspect because paper is ready to burn. Far too risky. There is a theory going about, right or wrong, that when the leverage of paper turns sour, the leverage will reverse sending physical 'to the moon'. I believe this is possible, however not before huge run-ups in gold stocks. There has been monstrous gains already in gold shares, I believe I read where some SA shares have quadrupled. Is it time to bail out of SA shares? Is SA, as you mentioned, ready to pop?

Let me tell you how I am playing this, I could be right, I could be dead wrong. I have $25,000 in physical, equally spilt between silver and gold. Maybe slightly more gold. I have about $25k in a 'tax sheltered' account with a couple juniors, a couple intermediate non-hedgers, an energy trust and a major NG producer. I have $20k in an on-line 'cash account' jumping in and out of a low-cost, non-hedging producer. I buy the dips, skimming a couple bucks a go, which I then 'roll-over' into the 'tax-sheltered' account and/or physical.

Ari's theory of physical only will one day prove to be correct. I agree with him 100%. However, until that day, lots of trading needs to be done!

Now let's look at numbers. Let's say for arithmetic sake that I am 25k/25k/25k. Physical has appreciated 18% in the last 6 months. Account A is up 50% and account B is up 90%. Can one sift from A and B to build up physical reserve? Of course! Suppose one is fotunate enough to build the accounts to 75k (physical), 25k paper, 25k paper. Then one day the paper catches fire and is worthless! Well in retrospect if the original money was put into gold completely one had 75k to begin with. However, if one was to luck on his hand and the 25k paper/25 paper was the double or triple before conversion to physical one could have 100k or plenty more of gold metal, the real McCoy.

This is where I was going the other day in the previous post. Suppose your 10k (paper)appreciated a few grand every couple of quarters. This is not an outlandish statement because it has, yes? Sift off the 'cream', convert the profits to physical keeping the original $10,000. Over time you will build a physical nest-egg and when, not if, physical rides to the moon you are in. If the paper burns, becomes worthless, the leverage of physical will take over.

If, as Ari predicts, paper (currency, gold stock/options) becomes absolutely worthless, gold will trade at huge multiples. FOA has gold one day at $30,000/oz., a 100 multiple of today. The 100 multiple is easy to compute mathematically, a dollar would be worth one cent, the inverse of the gold multiple. Can this matter? I don't know.

Ari, FOA and other PGA's have never described the world of trade and worse, the world (period) in this enviroment. Would one trade (barter?) a gram of gold for an automobile with a locked-and-loaded revolver in one's vest?

Would one trade dollars via a wheelbarrow and gold with a microscope?

A final thought. If gold does run large I might be inclined not to be in SA. I believe the run in SA has been dollar/rand induced. If that reverses gold may decline or lay flat in terms of SA stock. Has the leverage from that vehicle already played into out to some degree? Check the price of gold versus other currencies. Perhaps the leverage lies in currencies at home?

I hope you have caught the numerous discussions regarding 'nationializations' of gold mines. If a country goes to hell in a handbasket, ie: war, falling currency would they take over the mines? I believe yes. Why does the FED/Treasury refer to reserves as 'deep storage'? Is it possible that underground gold has been claimed, colateralized? If a hedger falls victim to a rapidly rising gold price, who is the underwriter of last resort? Yes, the BB's might be on the hook and who is backing that, yes, big brother.

The government has been very nasty in this gold scam over the last decade. Aiding and abetting the decline of gold, while securing it in case it rises to the moon. Very clever indeed.

The stories in recent days regarding Andy Smith are very interesting. When he quoted $340 an ounce and a bull market less than a year ago he was a HERO. Everyone quoted Mr. Smith. He has made a 180 degree reversal and it's not the number quoted that has my interest, it's what he has found out that has peaked my curiousity.

This 'gold game' is a bizarre one Jimbo. One thing I have found out over the last 5 years is that if you go searching you will find numerous opinions, all equally diverse and equally wrong.

So there you go, gold may be $68 or $30,000 in the future, place your bets. If it hits 4 digits or more every Tom, Dick and Uncle Sam will want it.

Gold - Get you some and a vest.

timbervision

(05/27/2002; 22:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76729)

YGM, Belgian, Aristotle, Sierre Madre, and R Powell

YGM - your resounding "No" was mobilizing. We really do need to think in terms of a "dramatic" event when thinking about gold's eventual move.

Belgian and Aristotle - the two of you are a force. I am stunned by the opportunity that we all have here to even contemplate physical gold vs. paper gold. Nowhere else on the net is this distinction even approached as it is here.

Sierre Madre - your thought that for gold to reach 30,000 would require a stymying of the talking cabal heads. This may be, but consider Belgian's analogy, "when the ship capsizes you stop pumping water and jump into the sea." I don't think the POG to 30,000 is caused by the general public rushing to buy gold but from the massive fiat debt bubble that has burst. This is a force from behind. I've tried thinking of it as an upsidedown pyramid growing ever larger, kept in balance by a massive computer program, and when destabilized no amount of recalabrating will stop the collapse.

R Powell - I am no one to comment on your gold vs. paper thoughts but I'll wade in anyway. I am under the impression that the mining shares will not pay out handsomely in fiat and that even a lesser amount of physical gold now will leave you with a greater future real purchasing and bill paying power than if you stay in paper. I can add that in the past year my main gains have come from paper but I have shifted more and more to physical which has slowed my portfolio growth.

Black Blade

(05/27/2002; 22:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76730)

Trust doesn't live on Wall St. anymore

http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20020525/340114.html
Snippit:

Market watcher James Grant says the bear market playing itself out across the street from his offices, at the New York Stock Exchange, will produce a cycle of recrimination. William Behrens a former research analyst, says the element of trust in the investment business no longer holds.

Snippit:

NEW YORK - The title of Fred Schwed Jr.'s 1940 book Where Are The Customers' Yachts? was taken from an anecdote about a man showing a visitor around Manhattan. Down at the waterfront, the New Yorker points out some impressive boats, saying they're the bankers' yachts." A little later he points out the stockbrokers' yachts. To which the visitor replies: "Where are the customers' yachts?"

This funny tale is most likely apocryphal. But the wide contempt in which Wall Street and its denizens were held after the Crash of 1929 and the collapse into the Great Depression was real: Bankers were reviled on Main Street America as "banksters" -- little more than gangsters who had robbed a generation of its prosperity -- and stockbrokers were held in similar low regard.

Black Blade: In today's world of Enronitis, accounting scandals ala Arthur Andersen, Wall Street deceptions ala Merrill Lynch, phoney corporate book keeping, etc. Many investors (those who are not tapped out) have decided not to get back into the "investing" game. Trading volume on wall Street is very low these days � and for good reason. Who can you trust when Wall Street has turned into a criminal enterprise? While the banksters are squandering the wealth and living high on the dollars of ordinary hard working Americans, those same hard working people see the value of their portfolios diminished. Yet, we see the Pimps of Wall Street and the Financial Media Trolls tell us all is well and that it will get better next quarter, �.. no, make that the second half, ��.. no, make that early next year, ��.. no, ��..

I think I will go down to the water front and count the yachts.

Pizz

(05/27/2002; 23:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 76731)

R Powell - Physical Only

Good post. Last time I checked fiat was still alive and hangin' in there.

If it get's really bad, and I think it will, we should get a deflationary hit first (next couple of years), then a roll into hyper inflation as the government monitizes everything it can (gold into the many thousands - but later). Unfortuately, most of the populace are going to lose all their assets in the deflation.

Most people, myself included, don't have the assets to buy enough gold/silver in the next 6 months or so to survive a prolonged period of unemployment. I have physical (1:7 gold/silver) for short term disaster capital (nuke in NY, brokerage down and out, etc. It's a last chance, get out of Dodge at any cost, start over capital, or just to survive as long as I can (probably won't want to at my age and under those kind of circumstances, no small kids to worry about THANK GOD).

A portion of my capital has been going into paper gold/silver (stocks are my choice, since I've never played futures) to keep from having to use my last line of defense in a short term deflationary crunch. If deflation hits hard, I lose my job, etc., history says (and should replay) gold stocks will rise on a leveraged basis. I will then have my fiat that will allow me to still be a "have" rather than a "have not" ward of the state. Without the fiat gains, I will lose my physical to expenses way too quickly.

If I put all my eggs into physical over the next year, I'd need a moon shot in physical to survive, and since I've got my small stash already, it will take more than anything I've read ANYWHERE to convince me that gold/silver stocks will be worthless as physical just doubles or triples (a much more likely outcome over the near term).

If we get into a senario where all paper burns literally overnite and investors can't get out of their paper gold stocks, IMHO, it will be a crash that even the physical holders will end up having to choose wether to beat their gold into spearheads or plowshares. I can't survive that environment - nor will I want to for very long.

Rich, you're being realistic, and prudent. Keep up the good work. I've had a hecla of a good time over the last three months with a small portion of my fiat.

Pizz

law

(05/27/2002; 23:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76732)

Call to Contest

$$$$$ 315.70 $$$$$ Just oscillating naturally!

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 00:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76733)

Physical vs. Paper

This is an interesting debate. I have thought about this subject for quite some time. I have about 35% of my portfolio in physical Gold and Silver and it would have perhaps been a bit more, however, my paper investments have done quite well. I do know that this is not anywhere close to the norm in today's investment environment. Gold mining shares tend to front run physical Gold prices. Since the POG has not kept up with the frenzied pace of the mining shares, it would stand to reason the price of physical Gold should move much higher. In other words, this Gold Bull has a long way to run.

I view my physical Gold as a hard asset that I will carry through thick and thin. It is after all the ultimate insurance that has no claim on it by outside forces. I think back to those people who had to bribe the border guards to seek a new life outside communist domination, those who brought their way out of a one way ticket to Auschwitz, those who watched their life savings vaporize in the Weimar Republic, those who had Gold during the LatAm (Brazil, Mexico, etc.) currency blowup, those who survived the Asian Contagion with their savings intact, those who are now suffering in Argentina, and those who will suffer in Japan. Gold is the ultimate insurance, it is anonymous and it can be passed along without outside consideration.

Paper assets are for the here and now. Stock is a "deed" of ownership if you will. You and many others have a right to a piece of a company with each share of stock. Stock is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. Stock investing is a speculative game and should not be played with cash that is needed for survival. In short it is a bet on the future direction of a company and the underlying asset. Of course bonds are dependent on the quality of debt by the issuer. Some even tout US government bonds as a safe haven investment. However, not long ago Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stated before the Senate Banking Committee that Gold was the "ultimate currency". He did not mention stocks or bonds � he specifically mentioned Gold.

There are also other hard assets such as gemstones and real estate. If you are not an expert in gemstones � stay away! If you are not an expert in the four C's (Cut, Clarity, Color, and Carat) - stay away from diamonds. These are fields best suited for experts in that field. It is also very easy for the uninitiated to be taken to the cleaners. It is true that one could hold several million dollars worth of diamonds in the palm of their hand, but again this is not for the majority of people. I have been fortunate enough to know some people in the gem business and was able to obtain a nice selection of rubies, sapphires, zircon, emeralds, opals, etc. However, these are more of a curiosity as specimen samples and not as easily utilized as something identifiable and tradable as Physical Gold!

Real estate is a very good asset to have as well. Though I do not have ownership of a physical residence (due to the nature of my work), one could do well to have real estate fully paid for. OK, I do have some land in the high country. The one downside of real estate is that you cannot transport real estate as easy as Gold. If one were to need to relocate in a hurry, it is easy to grab a stash of Gold and move on. Gold is also easily hidden and is generally undetectable. There usually is no paper trail. I would always suggest outright ownership. Even without a mortgage and with deed in hand, one is still just renting land/property from the local government. I consider property taxes a form of rent (just stop paying those taxes and see how long you really "own it"). No taxes need be paid on Gold ownership.

I was fortunate enough to make several Gold purchases from miners in Nevada over the last few years. I sold my services to the Gold mines and I would let it be known that I would purchase all PM awards. The Gold mining companies give out Gold and Silver medallions as safety and attendance awards. Fortunately some miners would sell me their Gold and Silver awards for beer money I guess (probably before the wives found out). I have many one ounce medallions, half ounce medallions, and various sizes of JM wafers from Barrick, Placer Dome, Echo Bay, Minorco, Sterling Mine, etc. Since then I have made purchases of Gold, Silver, and Platinum (yes even from USAGOLD).

I watch world events unfold with threats of war in Central Asia, violence in the Middle East, the possibility of much more terrorist activity worldwide, the weakening US Dollar, the deepening Global Recession, corporate scandals galore, phoney baloney accounting, loss of confidence in Wall Street, Argentine and Japanese banking crises, a new looming energy crisis, government squabbling and corruption, etc. If any one of these threats come into full view, I will feel a bit easier knowing that I have physical Gold on hand. In short - I have my investment portfolio insured.

Hey, who knows, I just may have to bribe a border guard or two.

- Black Blade

Brahms

(05/28/2002; 00:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76734)

Gold Downunder

$$$$330.3$$$$

Greetings from a lurker downunder. Here gold is not going up! The NZ dollar is outperforming every other currency in the world. I am still invested in Au to the hilt though.

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 00:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76735)

Welcome Brahms

It is good to see the "Down Under" population growing here. We have you, Topaz, Zenidea, Golden Bear, OZ, DOWNUNDER, etc. We used to have Andrew the Kiwi I believe (if you all count NZ part of the "down under" family.

Welcome aboard!

- Black Blade

BTW, I still have a couple of friends at Auckland University and in Adelaide. I do hope to someday come back for a visit.

YGM

(05/28/2002; 00:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 76736)

The last 18 hrs in and out of here (Castle Hall)

Prove it!The best damn bunch of tolerant, helpful, knowledgable, concerned, polite,(usually :>}, survival minded, truth seeking, sharing, caring bunch of Goldbirds around......

PS: BB>>>your BDay is paid up for 14 months bro....Til the next one...................................
Lets hope the world is in one piece and Gold is just $1K
by then, that'd be just right....$68.00 for Glowing Gold!

YGM

(05/28/2002; 01:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76737)

DON'T KNOW THE SCOOP ON THIS...Just picked it up @ GE

http://www.guerrillanews.com/counter_intel/boom_bust_echo/THIS DEFINATELY NEEDS A READ....I'm off to do just that..YGM

EXCERPT:........................

Stephen Marshall: Hello Mike. First question I guess� what was your initial reaction to the images being broadcast from New York on Tuesday and what were your first thoughts regarding the coverage.

Michael Ruppert: From the moment it happened we began hearing the name Osama bin Laden and there is an enormous body of evidence building already that Osama bin Laden is not and was not capable of pulling this off by himself. Period.

Historically, it is extremely well documented that Osama bin Laden is and was a creation of the Central Intelligence Agency in the 1980's when he joined with Mujahedeen Freedom fighters in Afghanistan. He worked with Gulbadin Hekmatyar who was running six heroin factories under CIA protection in Pakistan and Afghanistan. As recently as 1996, the U.S. government had secret agreements with the government of Sudan to allow him sanctuary there for the purposes of monitoring him. In 1997-1998 after the cruise missile attacks on the El Shifa pharmaceutical factory, which were absolute disasters for the U.S. because no weapons were made there. The U.S. intelligence community had ample ability to know and to track his movements. I have just learned that from 1998, Reuters is reporting, that a green light was given for covert operations against bin Laden and when you couple this with the fact that we know now, from European reports from Germany, France and Israel, that advance warning had been given to the U.S. government of an imminent attack, the current U.S. government position on this is really not sustainable.

So let me get this straight. Because you have been really clear in our past conversations about the murky world of intelligence communities and the whole business of war. And you have discussed the fact that there is always some group or faction that benefits directly from an armed conflict. But are you saying that, even in this case, with the horrific damage done not only to the financial center of New York and the United States, but also to the psychological well-being of the American population, that some faction of the U.S. government had foreknowledge of these attacks?

I absolutely believe, at this moment, that the United States government had foreknowledge of the attacks and allowed them to occur.

OK. So then please explain who would have directly benefited from his tragedy and how will the ensuing domino effect of military escalation play into the hands or interests of those people?

First of all, just two days before the attack, on September 9, I issued an urgent bulletin to all of my subscribers indicating a pending economic collapse of unbelievable proportions. Based upon what I had already predicted and what was already occurring, a rapid deflation of the Dow, having lost 900 points in three weeks before the attack. And two other factors, one of which is an artificially suppressed gold price which is, according to a suit filed in Boston by GATA - the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee - a design by the U.S. Treasury and major banks to keep gold prices low so that investor confidence would stay high but also because gold, physical gold, had been leveraged forward in multiples to an amount many times greater on paper than there is gold in actual existence. This is a suit that was threatening to come to the surface. Historically, investor confidence is gauged, is pegged to gold because if gold prices remain low, investors will assume no inflation and healthy markets. The minute gold prices rise, investor confidence sinks. And this has been an artificial ploy by the U.S. government which surfaced actually and was exposed in 1998 with the collapse of a company called Long Term Capital Management which almost toppled the U.S. economy and forced the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to intervene, exposing artificial manipulation of gold prices.

The second economic bomb that was ready to go off and which I warned about on Sept 9 was a 30 trillion dollar derivatives bubble spearheaded by JP Morgan-Chase (JPM) and 30 trillion would have collapsed the economy. Basically, the simplest form of derivative is a stock option where you can buy an option to purchase a share of stock trading at $80 for $1 and you can tie up trillions of dollars with little amounts of money. But if the economy fails you then become liable for the trillions of dollars that you have tied up. Excellent posts on this issue were placed at a website called lemetropolecafe.com that I strongly recommend people look at. And what I had said on September 9 was, 'look, this is going down and we're all going to burn.' And that was two days before the attack.

Now, given the fact that the economic indicators were for a recession, if not depression, by the end of October (for which the US government and Wall Street would have had to have taken responsibility), the now certain global recession that will follow the World Trade Center attacks, now has someone convenient to blame it on.

Cont'd @ Link....

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 01:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76738)

Musharraf speech infuriates India

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-309869,00.html
Snippit:

PAKISTAN�S military ruler broadcast a defiant message to India last night, raising tensions in the sub-continent yet again. Pakistan would not start a conflict but would "respond with full might", President Musharraf declared in a veiled threat to use his country's nuclear weapons. Delhi responded with anger and dismay. The speech was "an act of belligerence", Omar Abdullah, India's junior Foreign Minister, told The Times. Pakistani military experts said the President's stance was motivated by fear of a revolt from his army if he conceded an inch on the divided Himalayan state of Kashmir.

Black Blade: Definitely, we do live in "Interesting Times".

YGM

(05/28/2002; 01:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76739)

From The Wilderness...Michael Ruppert

http://www.copvcia.com/No Comment.....You be the Judge!

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 01:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76740)

China debt 'six times official figure'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2010000/2010642.stm
Snippit:

China's public debt could be up to six times higher than the official government figure, according to a study by the Hong Kong arm of investment bank Credit Lyonnais.
The report puts China's debt at almost 140% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with a government figure of just 23%.

Black Blade: Just wait until Gold investment in China is available to all Chinese citizens. With more news like this we could see a "Chinese Gold Rush".

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 02:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 76741)

J.P. Morgan management shake-up

http://www.msnbc.com/news/756803.asp?0si
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 24 � J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., scarred by a series of financial-industry setbacks, announced a shake-up of its top ranks that included the departure of its highest-profile investment banker and the reassignment of other top managers.

Black Blade: JP Morgan Chase is the subject of offshore investments involving Enron. The rumor is that their Gold derivative book has blown up. As a result several managers and employees have been "allowed" to "pursue other interests".

Belgian

(05/28/2002; 02:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 76742)

GOLD : Immunity to default (Aristoteles)

I've lived (invested/speculated) through that wild period of the eighties, were POG raced to 850$ and all stocks were a steal. It was a period, sharply contrasting with the present. Interest rates at 14%/15%/16% and the media were singing...closer to you, my God !

It was a time where I didn't dare to tell my relatives that I've been buying shares on the stockmarket ! The classic compassionate answer was ....you surely don't remember what happened during the 1929 crash !? You will loose all your savings, stupid fool (me) !

Today, it is exactly the same ambiance, but on the complacent positive side of the equation. Heavenly paper ...worthless Gold and storms only happen in far away desert islands, forgotten in the middle of nowhere.

Soooooo much reluctance and strong aversion towards any thesis (fundamentals) of a very high priced Valuable, Precious yellow !!!-??? An amalgame of arguments is brought forward as to "WHY" it can't be that Gold could multiply its price by 10 or 20 and more ! A very strange attitude, indeed ? Or not ? The Argentine syndrome ...

Argentinians didn't have or bought any Gold, because they were masterly lured into the false security of the US$, within foreign (US) banks. Fully secured, safe and sound !?
They were "diverted" away from the ultimate life-saver and insurance. When the "system" crashed...they couldn't even stampede to Gold, due to a watertight bloccade of their assets. THE PERFECT TRAP !!!

This is exactly what the financial brotherhood and their collective brothers in arms (political elite) have been working on since 1980 and beyond. Setting up / constructing, (almost) "perfect" TRAPS ! Stockmarkets multipled by 10 during the past 20 years ! POG did NOT decimate in proportion ! The trap seems to have a minor little construction error ?

Millions of individuals willingly wolonteer to hand over their savings for investment in enterprises that are maniacally valued at insane multiples of their turn over.
In 1980, they refused stubbornly to pay 1/2 the real and conservative bookvalue of very sound companies ! All these extremes within one (1) generation (=25 years).

But optimistic POG projections (600$) rarely go beyond a doubling of the present 320$ ! Pauze and take a deep breath.
...

TG already mentioned the analogy between 1980 and now. Holding Physical Gold today is the same smart move as was holding rockbottom priced, solid companies in 1980. Emphasis on *** HOLDING ****, throught thick and thin...far beyond the intermidiate arbitrary target of 600$ per ounce.
I made the "sold too early", mistake in 1980 with my first savings and regretted this all the way up. Was condemned to jumping in and out as a chicken without a head.

Que sera, sera...whatever will be, will be.

Graefin

(05/28/2002; 02:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 76743)

Hey Black Blade...

Nice party yesterday!!!!!

Belgian

(05/28/2002; 02:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76744)

What's the difference between India/Pakistan and Irak....?

Both, India and Pakistan have weapons of mass destruction.
Pakistan has been bombarded as a new ally to the US, with a 180� turn. WAT-troops (intelligence) are based in Pakistan and risk to become victims of war in the recent hostilities, seemingly escalating. Can someone explain the complete different approach (double standard) of the US to Pakistan (Taliban supporter) and Iraq ? Is the flaring up of the Kashmir dispute (Taliban instigated) an excellent postponer for the Iraqi invasion ? Thanks.

Bright sunshine and excellent weather for gardening.

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 03:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76745)

Call for more nuclear power stations

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1021990913444&p=1012571727159
Snippit:

Britain will be unable to meet its tough climate change targets without building more nuclear power stations, the country's biggest manufacturing union will warn today. Sir Ken Jackson, joint general secretary of Amicus, said: "If this government is committed to meeting its Kyoto targets it must rebuild Britain's nuclear power industry." His comments mirror a warning last month from Professor David King, the government's chief scientist, who said new nuclear plants were essential for Britain to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

Sir Ken said: "If we don't invest in nuclear power we will be forced to rely on unstable oil and gas imports. That could push up prices for consumers and it will surely mean we are unable to meet our Kyoto obligations. If the government and the industry work together we can come up with a safety framework that will win the public's confidence."

Black Blade: It would appear that Europe is going nuclear! First Finland approves a new reactor and now there are calls for the UK to do the same. It's to meet the Kyoto targets ya know. The writing is on the wall and even the UK with its North Sea oil knows that they face a coming energy crisis. The North Sea oil field has peaked and gone into decline. The rest of Europe is sure to follow up with additional nuclear reactor construction.

Topaz

(05/28/2002; 03:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 76746)

Birthday "Futures" and Paper-v-Phisical

Hey BB, I see you're in the business of writing Futures contracts on your Birthday....whats the expiry date? A fellow Cancerian I'll vouch ;-)

If one engages in paper trades, the motivation is to profit thereby in currency terms...and good luck to you! The underlying asset is irrelevant...Gold, Hogs, Wheat, Lumber...it doesn't matter...what matters is the "PROFIT"...and after taxes, banking/brokerage fees.. and inflation grab their share, you might well be ahead of the curve.... otoh to acquire a horde of Bullion (as BB so well points out) takes you out of that realm entirely and allows the holder to snub his/her nose at the "system" which supports, manipulates, preys upon, deludes and connives to reduce your profit in the first option..to ZILCH!! ....preservation-peace of mind- and profit...lastly.

Really an "Oranges and Apples" issue...No?

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 03:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76747)

USD Getting Thrashed and Gold Rises

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The US Dollar is getting hammered tonight against the worlds major currencies. Meanwhile Gold is rising in response. A weakening US Dollar is essential (as per last nights post). If the US is to ever pull out of the deepening global recession and compete for a shrinking piece of the Global pie then the US Dollar must weaken.

The effect on the price of Gold is obvious. Because Gold is priced in US Dollars we can assume that Gold will run higher. Many have pointed out that the US Dollar is extremely overvalued and in the current weak economy a weaker US Dollar is desired by manufacturers to compete with imported goods and mak US exports competetive overseas.

Note that oil and natural gas are weaker tonight on very weak economic conditions worldwide. Lower demand for energy from manufacturers may be a God send to the world as a devastating energy crisis may be partly avoided. So thankfully we have a deepening recession. In the meantime it is very important that the US develop its energy supply and energy infrastructure while we have the opportunity.

As always, get out of debt, stash away enough cash for a few months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and get a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities started. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 03:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 76748)

Re: Topaz

Actually I'm Leo (a day after Cancer), whatever that means. I didn't even consider futures contracts in that discussion, but yes, profit is the overriding motive. I was referring to a manufacturing company's shares. A good plan for many who cannot afford large Gold purchases would be to slowing acquire physical a bit at a time (dollar cost averaging?) and build a supply of Gold. A nice insurance policy. Cheers!

- Black Blade

goldenpeace

(05/28/2002; 03:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76749)

Contest:$$$$$$$$327.7$$$$$$$

As more investors "wake UP!" to gold amidst the chaos that is the $, the Dow, and the Indian subcontinent, GOLD commences another lift off.

Golden Bear

(05/28/2002; 03:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76750)

YGM (msg#: 76739) From The Wilderness...Michael Ruppert

Thanks YGM, for posting the previous interview and reposting this link!I have posted it a few times in the past, but I think it may have been a bit too raw after 9/11...., now the truth about the PTB and what they will do to stay in power can be fathomed by the majority.

Who knows, may be the beginnings of an uprising of the masses if/when this information spreads widely.

By the way, Mike Ruppert was about to go on air for an interview on Fox News, and was cancelled last minute, a hasty phone call to Fox no doubt...

Cheers.

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 03:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 76751)

Tokyo stocks close down, dollar slips against yen

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020528/japan_markets_3.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (AP) -- Tokyo stocks closed lower Tuesday, as investors sold select technology and retailer shares to pocket profits in the absence of foreign investors. The U.S. dollar was lower against the yen.

In currency dealings, the dollar was weaker against the yen, but was held to a narrow range by warnings from Japanese authorities about possible market intervention, traders said. Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa on Tuesday told reporters: "More fluctuations are likely, but we will be carefully watching the movements of the market." Japanese finance officials worry about a higher yen because its makes Japanese exports more expensive abroad and thus less competitive. They say a lower yen would help the nation's economy recover from a long slowdown.

Black Blade: Of course, US manufacturers have the same worries � so the race is on. Since the Tokyo close, the USD has fallen hard and looks to close in under 112 soon.

Topaz

(05/28/2002; 03:59:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76752)

A "freepalladium" chart

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgiHeres a good example of a "freemarket" commodity precious metal as it goes about price discovery in consert with the expectations of global usage....Recent top - Jan '01= $1100....recent bottom - NOW!! ish.

Topaz

(05/28/2002; 04:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 76753)

Bugger!

Click Palladium and tick the last 5 yr's.

Topaz

(05/28/2002; 04:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 76754)

YGM - G Bear.

...and the worrying thing is the $ index is hovering just above it's pre-911 level and looking sick.

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 04:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76755)

Barrick-Placer Rumor

I don't know the gory details yet, but there is a "rumor" floating about a possible takeover battle brewing for Aussie Gold miner AurionGold by both Barrick and Placer Dome. Could we see a replay of the Newmont/Franco vs. AngoGold battle? Placer had already bid on AurionGold and had made that announcement this weekend. This is interesting as all three companies are extremely over hedged. I had referred to this takeover as "two drowning men climbing over one another to get out of the water". Maybe we should make that "three drowning men". We will have to keep an eye out for what may develop here.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 06:38:56 MDT - Msg ID: 76756)

When fear strikes, go for gold

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=11090130&sType=1
Snippit:

Gold is among the safest haven for your funds in times of uncertainty. In war like situations, the yellow metal provides the perfect hedge against risk as well as inflation. Although cash is the king in such times, gold offers an opportunity for gains. Gold is better than cash in as local currencies can lose value rapidly in the event of a war and the resultant inflation. Gold, however, retains its value.

Black Blade: The threat of war grows more serious each passing day in Central Asia. Two nuclear powers threaten to go it "toe to toe".

Gold suddenly reverses at the NY open (though still positive) as investors grap at straws. Personal spending data just released showing minisucle +0.5% and income up a miniscule 0.3%. Meanwhile the US Dollar is looking sick this morning and sub 112 looks possible. Could be an "interesting" day on Wall Street as there is little news worthy of moving the markets.

Black Blade

(05/28/2002; 06:54:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76757)

Gold leap sparks rush to unwind bets

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=596986∈_review_text_id=565840
Snippit:

APPREHENSION is building up in the gold market about the big bets taken by some banks that the bullion price would stay low. Instead, gold has soared from $278 to $320 an ounce. Traders think it will soon reach $325, the highest since autumn 1999.

This has caused a scramble to unwind bets against the price. Many of these are by big mining companies that 'hedged' their future production. One of the biggest players, Ghana's Ashanti, has been struggling for years after running up hefty losses on hedging. More recently, other gold companies, such as South Africa's Durban Deep, raised new equity to help unwind their selling bets.

The miners have future gold production coming through to offset any selling commitments. US investment banks, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, were active in the gold market. US commercial banks have held big derivative positions. If any of these banks took big bets on the gold price staying low, they would be doing so without future metal production to fall back on.

One leading expert said: 'The potential for a squeeze is huge.' Some say that a rise to $330 would trigger more 'margin calls', forcing gold bears to put up more funds. Such warnings have been heard before, but the gold market, though global, is relatively small and can easily be swamped by huge derivative trades. Some estimate the 'short' position at 1,500 to 3,000 tonnes - six months' to a year's output.

Black Blade: My feelings exactly. Actually I expect that the $325.00/oz. level will be vigorously defended. I thought that to be the critical area before massive margin calls and the beginnings of a short squeeze triggering higher prices and a massive cascade of sequential short squeezes. We will have to see how this all plays out. Still, today could get "interesting".

Gandalf the White

(05/28/2002; 07:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 76758)

The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.

This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!

---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===

LUCKY # 13th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)

ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.3 $$$$ Brahms (5/28/02; 00:16:44MT msg#: 76734
$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479

$$$$ 327.7 $$$$ goldenpeace (5/28/02; 03:52:15MT msg#: 76749
$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369

$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437

$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503

$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254

$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.8 $$$$ Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT msg#: 76720
$$$$ 315.7 $$$$ law (05/27/02; 23:56:54MT msg#: 76732

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365

$$$$ 298.5 $$$$ Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT msg#: 76690
===
61 Valid Entries and ZERO invalid ones !!!
"Come on in" all you LURKERS.
<;-)

sourdough

(05/28/2002; 08:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 76759)

Central fund of Canada raising money to buy PHYSICAL gold and silver

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/May2002/28/c9906.htmlMore demand for both.

YGM

(05/28/2002; 08:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 76760)

G Bear...

That Ruppert Interview w/GNN, Boom Bust Echo....Took me totaly by surprise.....Don't know where I was when that came out.....Still trying to figure out what it did to my
already hieghtened survival mentality! The man must be incredibly brave, foolish, have a death wish or all of the above...Speaking engagements in Alberta even, in June...
He appears to be hell bent to get his message out there!
I'm goin fishing and forget this crap for awhile if it's possible!....YGM

"GO GATA" "GO Gold Miners" "Go GOLD" "Go Physical 50%"

Pizz

(05/28/2002; 09:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 76761)

Market Action

SM futures were up before the open and the sellers came in real quick. The selling seems to be coming in on virtually any hint of strength.

Gold up, dollar weak. Capital still leaving US and the dollar not the safe haven it was just a short time ago. There could be strong selling into limited strength here also. Makes me think something has broken down and not public yet - one of our smoldering problems ready to burst into flame?.

Ruppert's getting some attention. Normally these guy's are just ignored. Cancelled interview? Not too smart unless we're a bit closer to the cliff. Not real good PR to have a guy like this throw out terrorist/conspiracy plots and have one happen???? Also not too good to cancel an interview before one either.

Could be an interesting/short week.

Pizz

Carl H

(05/28/2002; 09:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 76762)

Vatican Gold

I wonder how much gold Bush is asking for to have the church's scandal fade from the media...

YGM

(05/28/2002; 09:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 76763)

Spot.....

Pole Vaulting Again!Just had to check the chart one last look before heading to the creek out back....Now who can fish? Limit up days seem closer and closer! So much for my Contest guess!

Siochain

(05/28/2002; 09:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76764)

Goldman massive buyer

Cafe bulletin just alerted that Goldman Sachs is massived buyer today ...no wonder the rocket...Interesting!!!!

YGM

(05/28/2002; 09:38:32 MDT - Msg ID: 76765)

Spot Silver......

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.htmlRich Powell....Here's a spike for you buddy! Pole Vault in the wings.....YGM.

Siochain

(05/28/2002; 09:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 76766)

Gold Contest

With Goldman buying heavy could create more spikes this week...$$$$338.90$$$$

sector

(05/28/2002; 09:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 76767)

JPM's Gold Derivative Book

"It was a gold loan book...period"...GATA's Deep ThroatThis has an ominous meaning.

Set aside the firings of JPM top management of late. Set aside the frantic efforts by the Fed to insulate the Fed Funds interest rate from volatility [Easy Al changed the discount window rules last week]. Set aside the assignation of the 30 year bond earlier for the same reason. [See...it's volatility that kills the $16 trillion interest rate derivative book at JPM which was bnuilt on the premise that gold was fully controlled].

Set all that aside.

"Their gold derivatives book is a loan book...period". "Borrowed" from whom? The US Treasury...that's who. Who else has $60 Billion at $275 pog?

So what did JPM DO with that "Borrowed" gold? They loaned it out AGAIN to a long list of counter parties that included Syria and Libya. But set that stuff aside.

The gold has already been sold...ALL of it...for all practical purposes. It cannot be returned at anywhere NEAR its loaned value...even IF the metal could be physically obtained.

JPM and the FED have loaned and their counter parties have sold all the US gold reserves for the purpose of gold price suppression [Mainly to create a low interest rate condition] and now with $325 pog, the marker on that gold is coming due. With what can they now "Defend" a price? Perhaps The Master of the Universe is asking for gold watches and wedding bands at the Fed these days.

The interest rate marker is yet to hit but that is the "Big One". IRDs will crack JPM in half. They will be Enronized. CEO Harrison will be told to fall on his sword...maybe by Labor Day.

When the iRD book goes under, the BIS and G-10 money center banks will be cruelly set adrift to be smashed on the rocks of financial reality.

Behold the vengeance of gold.

YGM

(05/28/2002; 09:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 76768)

Siochain.....

Where Goldman Goes Many will Follow!Could it be the first panic attack by the short consortium
has arrived? It will be hard to hold back the likes of Soros et al when they smell blood! If they cared not for threats from the Brits years ago why be put off now? The rush to the exits by a virtual stampede will be deafening!
ABX, PDG and others trying to close hedges today must be heavy into the Valium......YGM

Siochain

(05/28/2002; 10:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 76769)

@YGM

That's my thinking....especially once it gets out that Goldman was really massive on today's Comex and with SM down...flight to safety ....or better yet...flight to quality!!

YGM

(05/28/2002; 10:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 76770)

GATA Email...

http://www.gata.org[GATA] Bullion banks' bets against gold are getting noticed
Date: 5/28/2002 10:28:29 AM Central Standard Time
From: GATAComm@aol.com
To: gata@yahoogroups.com

11:22a ET Tuesday, May 28, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The story below from the Daily Mail in Britain is interesting
for showing that GATA's story about the bullion banks' big
short position in gold and the resulting manipulation of
the gold price is breaking through even to mainstream
news organizations. Meanwhile, the gold price seems to
be reflecting this growing awareness. One has to suspect
that the GATA delegation's work at the mining analyst
conference in London last week has had sustantial impact
here.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Gold sparks rush to unwind bets

By Brian O'Connor
Daily Mail, London
May 28, 2002

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?
in_review_id=596986∈_review_text_id=565840

Apprehension is building up in the gold market about
the big bets taken by some banks that the bullion price
would stay low. Instead, gold has soared from $278 to
$320 an ounce. Traders think it will soon reach $325,
the highest since autumn 1999.

This has caused a scramble to unwind bets against
the price. Many of these are by big mining companies
that "hedged" their future production. One of the biggest
players, Ghana's Ashanti, has been struggling for years
after running up hefty losses on hedging. More recently,
other gold companies, such as South Africa's Durban
Deep, raised new equity to help unwind their selling bets.

The miners have future gold production coming through
to offset any selling commitments.

U.S. investment banks, including JP Morgan and Goldman
Sachs, were active in the gold market. U.S. commercial
banks have held big derivative positions. If any of these
banks took big bets on the gold price staying low, they
would be doing so without future metal production to fall
back on.

One leading expert said: "The potential for a squeeze is
huge." Some say that a rise to $330 would trigger more
"margin calls," forcing gold bears to put up more funds.

Such warnings have been heard before, but the gold
market, though global, is relatively small and can easily
be swamped by huge derivative trades. Some estimate
the "short" position at 1,500 to 3,000 tonnes -- six months'
to a year's output.

With the dollar under fire and India-Pakistan war fears,
everything seems to be running gold's way at the moment.
It finished at $320.15 in London on Monday night, having
earlier hit $320.80.

-END-

Pizz

(05/28/2002; 10:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 76771)

Price Guess

$$$$$$$349.2$$$$$$

Seems to be enough fear and uncertainity to blow thru resistance in the 320's and 330's if we get any increase in tensions in ME or India/Pakistan. The short covering should push us into the 350's with a vigorous defense at those levels, with a corresponding retrenchment back into high 340's, hence my guess.

Pizz

Siochain

(05/28/2002; 10:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 76772)

Bullion banks' bets against gold are getting noticed

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?Gata alert re column :
Apprehension is building up in the gold market about
the big bets taken by some banks that the bullion price
would stay low. Instead, gold has soared from $278 to
$320 an ounce. Traders think it will soon reach $325,
the highest since autumn 1999.

This has caused a scramble to unwind bets against
the price. Many of these are by big mining companies
that "hedged" their future production. One of the biggest
players, Ghana's Ashanti, has been struggling for years
after running up hefty losses on hedging. More recently,
other gold companies, such as South Africa's Durban
Deep, raised new equity to help unwind their selling bets.

The miners have future gold production coming through
to offset any selling commitments.

U.S. investment banks, including JP Morgan and Goldman
Sachs, were active in the gold market. U.S. commercial
banks have held big derivative positions. If any of these
banks took big bets on the gold price staying low, they
would be doing so without future metal production to fall
back on.

One leading expert said: "The potential for a squeeze is
huge." Some say that a rise to $330 would trigger more
"margin calls," forcing gold bears to put up more funds.

Such warnings have been heard before, but the gold
market, though global, is relatively small and can easily
be swamped by huge derivative trades. Some estimate
the "short" position at 1,500 to 3,000 tonnes -- six months'
to a year's output.

With the dollar under fire and India-Pakistan war fears,
everything seems to be running gold's way at the moment.
It finished at $320.15 in London on Monday night, having
earlier hit $320.80.

Siochain

(05/28/2002; 10:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 76773)

YGM

You are fast on the draw...sorry for duplicate....deinitely "things" are happening!!!

YGM

(05/28/2002; 10:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 76774)

Siochain..

Just noticed Black B is faster than us....now we have triplicate....Oh well it's faily quiet here today anyway & Chris will make 4 probably....

ROSEBUD99

(05/28/2002; 10:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 76775)

$$$350.00$$$

Every dip is now bought. We "bugs" learned well from the tech's. The dips seem now only to last hours not days. The great presure on the shorts is getting unbearable. The hedgers are covering as fast as they dare. Who will be left without a golden chair now that the music has stoped?? Looks like its the bullion banks and barrick. (well deserved too) I'm even begining to wonder that if a central bank did decide to sell, might the price not go up on the news like it did in the 70's when they anounced sales. This is so much fun !!! Like a long wait for an amusement park ride, then finally in the seat, and look, up ahead, we are climbing the 1st big hill, hold on to your hats.

Siochain

(05/28/2002; 10:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 76776)

OK you win the fastest draw ....and as for July birthdays...we'll have to check out others...Leigh...you...and I have July birthdays....maybe good Sign for July gold!!!!

RobotGuy

(05/28/2002; 10:38:00 MDT - Msg ID: 76777)

Guessing Contest - - - - $$$$334.7$$$$

Interest in gold is snowballing, and even the mainsrteam junior investors are starting to tune in. There's still a lot of uncertainty in the market, but after today many will come to terms with the fact that gold is going up, and will continue to go up. The many folks who used to poke fun at goldbugs are finally shutting their yaps, and in some cases even apologizing as they reach for their wallets and telephones. I'm sure our generous hosts here at Centennial precious metals are going out of their minds trying to keep up with the outrageous number of incoming orders. The more people who go nuts trying to get their hands on the precious yellow, the faster the price is going to skyrocket. I thought gold might reach $350 by July, but it's becoming evident that it might happen much sooner than that.

Invisible Hand - - - I've got my fingers crossed for you!!

Sierra Madre

(05/28/2002; 11:16:34 MDT - Msg ID: 76778)

"Looking into the abyss..."

Sector: There is high drama in your description of the situation and unfolding events. Thanks to the internet, we are privileged to contemplate a world wide crisis approaching its resolution.

Wow! This is something like watching a comet hit a planet - except that the planet is going to be ours!

I tried to post early this morning, but my message was deleted accidentally. I predicted a strong day for gold, based on vigorous trading in Asia, with a price target of $325. Looks like we've hit it. Perhaps it will remain there.

"Courage he said, and pointed towards the shore"

We're almost there. I hope we like it.

Sierra

Goldfinger 2

(05/28/2002; 11:20:26 MDT - Msg ID: 76779)

$$$$$$$332.2$$$$$$

A good friend of mine who lives in NH called 9 of the biggest coin shops in NH last friday looking for gold bars and coin. No one had any 10oz bars in stock and only 3 had Maples and Eagles readily available. 6mo ago he called around and 4 shops had 10oz bars and all had Maples and Eagles on site.

Sierra Madre

(05/28/2002; 11:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 76780)

Effects of war between Pakistan/India??

Question: would a nuclear war between Pakistan and India, leave a residue of radioactive gold behind?

Does anyone know the answer?

Sierra

YGM

(05/28/2002; 11:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 76781)

Sierra....Radioactive Gold.....Very Serious and Unspoken Of Evidence.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/daily/aug99/metals14.htm
EXCERPT:

Recovering gold and other valuable metals from retired nuclear weapons had been a little-known mission of the government's uranium enrichment plants over the past five decades. At Paducah, the process began in the 1950s and was conducted under extraordinary security, with heavily armed guards escorting warheads into the plant under cover of darkness.

Garland "Bud" Jenkins, one of three Paducah workers involved in the lawsuit filed under seal in June, says he worked for several years in Paducah's metals program recovering gold, lead, aluminum and nickel from nuclear weapons and production equipment.

"We melted the gold flakes in a furnace to create gold bars," Jenkins said in court documents. "The gold was never surveyed radiologically prior to its release, to my knowledge."

Jenkins also says he never saw tests performed on nickel and aluminum ingots that were hauled out of the plant in trucks. In later years, when plant managers did begin screening the metals, many were found to be contaminated, he said. Hundreds of nickel ingots are still stored at the plant, too tainted to go anywhere, he said.

A plant report included in the lawsuit filings may shed light on the degree of contamination in the gold. In a radiological survey of the plant last year, technicians discovered gold flakes inside an old ingot mold used for gold recovery. The fish scale-sized flakes were tested and found to emit radiation at a rate of 500 millirems an hour, the report said. By comparison, the average person receives between 200 and 300 millirems each year from all sources, including X-rays, radon gas and cosmic radiation from space.

"If you had a wedding ring made out of those flakes you'd be getting twice as much radiation in an hour as most people get in a year," said Joseph R. Egan, a lawyer representing the employees.

Fowler, the radiation safety technician, said he filed a report on the discovery of the radioactive gold in December but received no response from the plant's management.

**Nothing further was done to investigate "the possibility that [the plant] may have contaminated the nation's gold supply" at "Fort Knox", he said.**

Complete article @ Link.......YGM

Henri

(05/28/2002; 11:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 76782)

Sierra Madre

Do you really want an answer to that question?

Although gold does become highly radioactive when irradiated with a suitable neutron fluence, detection of the characteristic gamma emissions for the various byproducts produced would probably be difficult against the background of fission products and other activated material in the area.

YGM

(05/28/2002; 11:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 76783)

USAGOLD Discussion - May 2002