USAGOLD Discussion - June 2002

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(06/01/2002; 00:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77234)
Q & A .... From Deputy of Reserve Bank of India on Gold..... Committed To Creating Environment For Productive Use Of Gold�

Of late, gold is once again in the news with its prices turning volatile at the psychological level of $300 per troy oz in the international market and Rs 5,000 per 10 gms in the domestic market. India imports around 800 tonne of gold annually, but there is no formal regulator for its domestic and international trade. The Reserve Bank of India, however, is considered as the deemed regulator for the yellow metal, in so far as it being a part of the country's foreign exchange reserve. Talking to Sharad Mistry of The Financial Express, RBI deputy governor Dr YV Reddy clarified on various related questions. Excerpts.
How would you consider gold's share of just six per cent in the country's total reserves of $53 bn? Is this share of gold sufficient or needs to be increased given the relative vulnerability of forex through portfolio investments in the country's forex kitty?
The holding of gold or otherwise in forex reserves is country specific. Central banks in Europe have been traditionally holding large quantities of gold as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Consequent to the formation of the European Central Bank (ECB), many of them have resorted to sale of a part of their gold holdings, for a variety of reasons. Some of the Latin American countries also have reduced their gold holdings. Of course, there has been a tendency/policy shift towards unloading gold holdings, in general, though for a variety of reasons.

There have also been countries that have acquired gold reserves in recent years. Our gold holdings in absolute terms have been more or less constant but in percentage terms, they have come down as the total reserves have registered an impressive growth in recent times due to spurt in foreign currency reserves. Since every asset is vulnerable to market movements, it is not easy to establish vulnerability of forex and the relationship between vulnerability and gold holdings.

What is the ideal size of gold reserves for India -- in actual and in per centage terms to its reserves?
There is nothing like an ideal size of gold reserves for any country either in actual terms or in percentage terms to total reserves.

How is it that RBI has preferred to remain passive to the ongoing volatility in global bullion market, even when India is the world's largest consumer of the commodity? Also, what role is RBI expected to play in the development of a gold market and the bullion exchange?
The Reserve Bank of India's long term focus is on creating an environment conducive for more productive use of gold asset. RBI also closely monitors the global bullion markets. RBI has provided the necessary impetus for gold market reforms in India by helping in evolving what may be termed as the New Gold Policy.

As a central bank, RBI's interest in gold is due to the fact that gold has characteristics of currency. Traditionally, RBI has played an active part in evolution of both, gold policy and gold market.

What policy changes are likely to be made in the RBI Act to develop efficient gold futures market in the country? Why do the 13 entities (allowed by the RBI to import gold) shy away from conducting forward trades and develop such a market?
The RBI Act does not require any amendment for the development of an efficient gold futures market in the country. RBI has no formal compulsion for such a role either. A major change in the development of gold markets in India was the authorisation in July 1997 to commercial banks given by RBI to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters. Initially, 7 banks were selected for this purpose on the basis of certain specified criteria like minimum capital adequacy, profitability, risk management expertise and previous experience in this area. At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold and the quantum of gold imported through these banks has been in the range of 500 tonne per year.

While RBI enables a favourable environment, it is for the banks to take the concept of inter bank forward trading further. It must be recognised that any market related product (like bullion futures) is assessed based on needs and not by its mere existence.

Forward Market Commission (FMC) has to form its views on this feasibility and as reported recently in the press, the Government of India has initiated steps for strengthening the working of the Forward Market Commission.

Should not RBI be the regulating body for the proposed bullion exchange, given the sensitivity of the commodity which is both a currency and also a commodity? Any steps currently under way to utilise the futures market facilities of the National Stock Exchange?
The basic framework for an exchange exists with 13 banks active in the import of precious metals and five of them having launched the Gold Deposit Scheme.

Once the banks start trading among themselves according to the demand-supply dynamics, a formal move towards a Gold Exchange would be appropriate. As regards regulation it may be premature to analyse the issue. When the product develops, the market would certainly put to use all the available state-of-art infrastructure.

Your reaction to the failure of the gold deposit scheme launched in 1999 that attracted just 7-8 tn of gold. Any changes likely to make the scheme more attractive?

The Government of India announced the Gold Deposit Scheme in 1999 and RBI issued guidelines to the banks intending to launch the Scheme in October 1999. Five banks have launched their schemes under the guidelines and the quantum of gold mobilised so far has been about 7 tonne.

The scheme is yet to evoke the expected response. As I mentioned during my speech in Delhi on �Evolving Role of Gold - Recent Trends and Future Directions� last month, a number of reasons can be cited for the low response to the gold deposit scheme, prominent among them being depositors� losing the making charges spent on jewellery, the low caratage of jewellery, low rate of return on deposits from the depositors� perspective and the absence of amnesty.

It is expected that once the wide cross-section of the public becomes aware of the benefits of the scheme, it would generate sufficient interest. At present, there is no proposal for any change in the scheme before us.

In this context, as part of positive approach to consumers, establishment of a Gold Market Development Agency as a voluntary self regulatory organisation could be considered to devise mechanisms by which the efficiency of the market and the integrity of products are ensured and augmented.

Would the heavy influence of forces in the parallel economy in the bullion market hamper the overall development of a regular bullion futures market and the proposed futures exchange?
The new Gold Policy has considerably liberalised the bullion market. This has significantly reduced illegal transactions and driven profiteers out of illegal transactions mainly by reducing transaction costs and reducing the difference between gold prices in the world and in the Indian market.

There is scope for further rationalising gold import policy including removal of individual-based special facilities such as those extended to NRIs, reviewing the policy of import of gold through special licenses and restriction on import of gold as part of personal baggage by returning Indians.

As use of official channels increases, the gold market and exchange will automatically evolve.

How safe or otherwise is gold when compared to other financial assets for common investor?

There are divergent views on the role of gold as a safe financial asset. One of such view is that gold is the only asset totally free of any credit risk and in the long run, it is an effective hedge against inflation. However, recent incidences have shown that the volatility, which is, generally associated with other financial assets is applicable to gold also.

Also, the return from investments in gold may be compared with the return on investment in government bonds in the Indian markets. For example, if gold had been purchased at end-February 1996, and sold at end-February 2002, at the prevailing rates in the local bullion market, the average annualised return would work out to be negative. On the contrary, investment in liquid risk-free Government security on the same dates would have fetched a comfortable positive return, and in case capital gains through marked to market is also taken into account, the annualised average return could be as high as 15 per cent.

(06/01/2002; 01:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77235)
Bank of France View on Gold..... Interesting re Cb's Views on holding Gold and on Lending etc....Worth a read only just don't try to copy it my box froze up comtinually.....YGM.
(06/01/2002; 01:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77236)
World Gold Holdings by Country......... Interesting!......Commit this to file and we'll have a look see next year!!!
I'll give odds the #'s will have changed upwards....
(06/01/2002; 01:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77237)
Power is Where the Gold Is........Tom Rose.

No careful observer of history will even try to deny that Americans have suffered severe losses of liberty during this century. This loss of freedom is often sloughed off as a necessary part of the growth of population and of the growing complexity of our social and economic framework. But this is a sadly deficient analysis. The ownership of and control over real economic resources is the bulwark of a people's economic and political freedom. Citizens who own and control substantial real assets cannot easily be dominated by politicians and bureaucrats, for the control of real wealth provides citizens with economic alternatives which lead to independence rather than dependence on the dictates of others.

It is in this light that we should regard the gradual draining of gold and silver from the pockets of citizens and the centralization of gold holdings under the control of political rulers. It is doubtful that Americans will ever again be able to exert effective control over their elected officials unless they demand the return of a gold- and silver-backed currency. The widely dispersed ownership of gold held in private bank vaults and in the homes of millions of citizens is a strong bulwark against the slow and eventual growth of totalitarianism. On the other hand, the centralization of gold holdings at the national level constitutes an invitation to tyranny that few political leaders have the character to resist.

Golden Bear
(06/01/2002; 02:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77238)
Gold Investing 101.
For all the new posters on the forum who may need some advice...

(06/01/2002; 02:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77239)
Ad nauseum, intervention remains on the order of the day as soon as crucial breaking-points, risk to indicate (the wrong) trend ! �/$ crossing 0,93 and POG > 326$.
Evidence, again, that we have (!!!) to live, work and love, within a "managed" economical environment. Japanese Giant dollar-holders were forced to intervene firmly for their own sake and to the benefit of an economical falsified world.
POG (not *immune* VOG) was/is temporary halted in its temporary (!!!) subordinate role as follower.

Those interventions cause many chain reactions (side-effects). Many valuations (stocks/interest rates), remain or increase, in falsified modus. Absolutely nescessary to carry on, economically. In the mean time, "the rot" can proliferate further. So be it.

Interventions have the particular characteristic of "stopping" at once and without warning, for God only knows, what reason. Always remember that when the music (intervention) stops...there's only one chair left...a Golden one made out of the Physical and not paper!

Thursday and friday, intraday action was the clearest of evidence/example of how a POG run was broken, to see by any observer. Conclusion : a declining dollar exchange rate is "the" drama ! The one and only precursor of dramatic chain effects, increasing as time goes by.

Sunny weekend to all.
The Invisible Hand
(06/01/2002; 06:15:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77240)
Castro makes euro legal tender
The euro becomes legal tender from Saturday in Cuba's biggest tourist beach resort, Varadero.

The BBC's Havana correspondent says the euro will now probably spread into the wider Cuban economy, helped by the black market in hard currency

(06/01/2002; 07:03:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77241)
Trying to glue some thoughts together................. with Hamilton's essay above (thank you Golden Bear), and focusing on his 'gold investment pyramid', it becomes plain, well crystal clear (at least to me) where one wants to be at the end of the day.

Physical gold.

Arisotle, FOA, TC, Another, yes all the PGA's are correct, I believe one day I will be a 'die-hard', gold-in-hand' all-physical guy. Yes, one day "the piano will fall" and it does appear that day approaches swiftly. When that day arrives, and surely it will, one must ask oneself 'what do I want to be holding?' Yen in mattresses? Baskets of stock certificates, be it BULLION.NYSE or DOT.COM? As I traverse up and down Hamilton's pyramid building wealth(?) I wish, no I want to 'time' the crash and 'soft land in the foundation of physical on the 'day of reckoning.

Alarmist? Greedy? Stupid?

I don't think so. I just wish to be holding what will be the 'asset of last resort' when that time arrives. What is more fundamentally pure than physical gold. One can even disect that to bullion and coin. 50/50?

So why do I play the pyramid game? If I am such a srong believer in physical why own gold stock or for that matter any other stock? Why would I even contemplate silver options?


Well quite frankly I don't have enough of the 'metal of kings'. I play the leverage game as far as some stomach will tolerate and lately I am winning, it feels good to have won a bet for a change. Apparently a pair of yahoos with a pick and a pan, speculating for gold and recently IPO'ed I may add, have had a run-up. Great. I threw in my my bits and now I have 5.

I now can climb down 'the pyramid' and throw 3 bits of profits into MY metal.

Dangerous game, you bet.

But how else can I do it? After my dismal fiat-payday, I pay my bills, invest, contemplate a new patio set, hell even a new fishing pole but then alas, the cupboard is bare. No new metal!! Must use leverage, how does 1 get me 10? Then yes, a patio set, a fishing pole and a little gold dust is mine!

A dilema no doubt, and to make matters worse I must be at the bottom in a timely fashion.

(06/01/2002; 07:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77242)
@ turkey hunter, slingslot, Kevin$
Congrats gentlemen

Yes the 'lines' were thrown about all week and I find it most amusing that it was dead centre of the 325/328 window, fitting yes?

A technician I am not, but I do draw attention again to the Sept. 28, 1999 (NY spot) high of 327 (and change) and the Oct.5, 1999 (London) high of 337 (and change).

I do look forward to clearing 338/340, a golden day it will be!!!!!!!!!!
(06/01/2002; 08:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77243)
What a Nice Surprize.
************************************************Just coming on line after a couple days in the woods.
Did you hear my cheer when I found out I have the Silver?
I'm closer to the Gold this time M.K.
Congrats to Turkey Hunter for winning the Gold and To Kevin$
for winning the other silver.

Thank you M.K and all at USAGOLD for having the contest.
Thanks to Gandalf the White for his time and effort.

We are all winners here at USAGOLD!


Gandalf the White
(06/01/2002; 08:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77244)
Attention: Sirs Turkey Hunter, slingshot and Kevin$
Please, would the three WINNERS provide their correct mailing addresses VIA an EMAIL message to the "ATTN" of Jill at !!!! This will allow the Golden and Silver Prizes to be "posted" and reach your hands in a timely fashon.
Gandalf the White
(06/01/2002; 09:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77245)
DIRECT email address for LADY Jill
Please use this!
Black Blade
(06/01/2002; 13:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77246)
Investors Rolling in Cash, Avoid Stocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wasting away, waiting for idle cash to find its way back into the stock market. It's the story that has been heard on Wall Street for the last two years. By some estimates, more than $2 trillion is sitting on the sidelines. It's a mountain of unused money that could power the next bull market. But the betting is the cash may not be put to work any time soon because corporate earnings are still not exciting after crashing by 31 percent last year. The economic recovery is not assured because business investment, which slumped and pulled the economy into recession last year, is still flat. Investment in computers and other high-tech stuff drove the 1990s boom. And in order for the economy to get back on its feet, businesses need to start spending again.

Indeed, the character of the stock market has changed. What the market needs to get investors back into play is good news every day, which is a pretty tall order. In the meantime, smart money people are patiently waiting on the sidelines, wiser than they were two years ago. There's a reluctance to get back into stocks because of the risk the market could be brought down by an unexpected event such as a major flare-up in the oil-rich Middle East. By some estimates, $5 trillion has gone up in flames since March 2000, a ton of money equal to half of the total U.S. gross domestic product of $10 trillion. So it's easy to understand why investors have developed a "once burned, twice shy" mentality.

Black Blade: It does not look to get any better. Investors lost $5 Trillion when the markets imploded. That's $5 TRILLION � gone � "gone to money heaven!" There is no increase in capital expenditures by large corporations. Many retirees will have to learn phrases such as: "would you like fries with that?" and "welcome to WalMart". As always get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program.

Black Blade
(06/01/2002; 14:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77247)
Gold price surges to two-year high on war fears, strong demand in Asia

HONG KONG (AP) -- The money-counting machine at the crowded Bao Tin gold shop in a quiet back street of Hanoi seems to endlessly churn through bills. The shop's workers snatch time between sales to log onto the Internet, checking prices in London and Hong Kong. "Every time I save enough money, I buy some gold. It doesn't matter to me what the price is, because it's for savings," says Tran Tri Loan, a vegetable and flower farmer.

The business of gold is booming in Vietnam, as it seems to be almost everywhere these days. Terrorism fears, Middle East tensions, renewed hostilities between India and Pakistan, Japan's wobbly economy -- all have contributed to the recent surge in the price of gold to its highest level in more than two years. Added to the speculative pressures driving the flight into gold is the age-old appetite for the precious metal among Asians, who traditionally have used it as a hedge against uncertainty.

Worldwide, purchases of gold investment products surged 36 percent in the first quarter of the year, helped by the strong buying in Vietnam and Japan, as well as China, Pakistan and Turkey, the London-based World Gold Council reported. Vietnamese hoard the stuff, hoping to save enough to buy homes priced in gold taels -- equivalent to 37.75 grams (1.32 ounces). Mainland Chinese tourists flood into glittery Hong Kong gold shops to pick up chunky gold necklaces and bracelets -- symbols of new affluence.

Japanese have been shifting a share of their massive nest eggs into gold, wary of new government limits of deposit insurance and desperate for investments that might gain them more than the 0.1 percent interest rates now paid by troubled banks. Japanese demand soared to 56.5 tons (50.9 metric tons) in the first quarter of this year, more than double the 22.1 tons (19.9 metric tons) bought in the same period a year ago, and more than half the total 109.3 tons (98.4 metric tons) bought by Japanese in all of 2001, said the World Gold Council, an association of gold producers.

Black Blade: Very good article worth reading. Growth in Gold portfolio insurance is taking off � especially now as the world is taking a dangerous shift and the global economy is very uncertain.

(06/01/2002; 14:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77248)
David Tice Commentary of 5/22/02 first 8 pages of this 40 page pdf file (semi-annual report for the Prudent Bear Funds) are David Tice's latest read on the US economy. Here's the sub-headings to give you some feel for the contents;

The Markets
The Economy
Real Estate Bubble
Argentina's Lesson
Back to the USA
The Disappearance of the Guardian
The Key Issue-Dollar Risk

Tice makes a compelling comparison of Argentina vs. US policy, eg., "it is a grevious policy error to adopt a monetary structure that is unsustainable over the longer-term and vulnerable to implosion, no matter how immediately expedient. When it comes to monetary policymaking, conservatism must overrule seductive experimentalism."

This is a very worthwhile article.

Congratulations to the contest winners from one who was lucky enough in the past to have been one.
(06/01/2002; 14:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77249)
GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM , PALLADIUM & DIAMONDS an interesting editorial by Mr Chapman.
I did not know that Newmont was hedged btw.

The gold miners in South Africa are contemplating another industry wide strike that could send gold prices flying higher.

As gold hit $310 an ounce JP Morgan Chase analysts decried that the potential for further gains were small and an over-bought situation had developed. Gold is now $318 and ounce. So much for JPM predictions. This sell recommendation came just before gold reached its former recent high and was an attempt to manipulate the market. A letter writing campaign to the SEC, NASD, FTC and the New York State AG's office demanding JPM declare its gold and gold share positions is in order. This will put more pressure on the cartel. We have contended for 42 years that in situations like today's markets you can throw charts out the window except for day trading. They just won't work. We see the chance of a terrorist attack over the 4th of July weekend at even money and you can't get that off a chart nor can you get the affects of manipulation. Let's force Morgan to reveal their positions and in this way we can disarm them. If the world understood that the national value of Morgan's derivative position was $60 trillion they'd freak out.
If gold remains in the $315 to $350 range for the remainder of the year the financial situation for Barrick and AngloGold will look bleak and Placer's situation isn't encouraging. The top four hedgers Barrick, AngloGold, Placer Dome and Newmont have 50 million ounces of hedge commitments, 50%, of which belong to Barrick.
The timeline for the Ashanti hedge book, which with the assistance of Goldman Sachs blew-up, is December 31,2002. That's when the margin has to be covered. Gold should be at $384 an ounce by then and Ashanti will go the way of the dodo bird.
On 5/29/02 Goldman Sachs recommended the sale of three gold stocks and was negative on the group. When asked by CNBC if they owned these stocks they said they were short and long. We have an unimpeachable inside source that tells us that they are 98% short and 2% long. That is why CNBC refuses to ask real probing questions just softballs

Old Yeller
(06/01/2002; 15:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77250)
The Economist on Argentina's woes
No mention of gold and silver being used as money as the crisis intensifies.Being a country rich in both metals,it would seem as if someone with an alternative vision on just what constitutes a rich country could go a long way in Argentina.

Seeing that the US is deemed to be the model to emulate,a quick perusal of the US balance sheet would just show another Argentina,only one that dwarves the debt burden by a multitude of thousands.So why is the dollar valuble,yet the peso is deemed worthless?

Since the IMF has decided to let Argentina twist in the wind and the fact remains that Argentina is a country rich in resources,trading agricultural output for gold and silver only,especially at today's artificially created prices would seem to be a valid solution.

While doing this,the hyprocrisy and moral bankruptcy of US monetary authorities should be stressed as well as an organized boycott of US dollar use within the country.All holders of US dollars should be encouraged to convert to physical gold and silver and to conduct their business using this virtually risk free money that is out of reach of government and bankers.

Vision for constructive change will never be obtained within a system of legalized theft and counterfeiting which is the Bretton Woods agreement.It is time for a victim of this horrific plundering to stand up and say,"We're as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

(06/01/2002; 16:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77251)
Whilst most are optimistics on the US econony recovery corporate insiders turn bearish
"There has been huge, huge insider selling," said Phil Roth, the veteran technical analyst at Miller Tabak, referring to legal sales by corporate officers and directors, not to illegal trading on inside information. He noted that over the last eight weeks, there had been 4.2 insider sales for every insider purchase reported. There are usually more open-market sellers than buyers, since insiders get a lot of their stock by exercising options, but this ratio is higher than it ever was in the 1990's bull market.

(requires registration)

(06/01/2002; 16:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77252)
Looking into the future..341 in sight now
Congratulations TurkeyHunter!Whens the next contest?

In my opinion,no amount of analysts screaming sell now!Will stop the bull run in gold and silver.Before we had no coverage on Gold,now at least some is good and the rest is better than none.The more these turkeys scream "sell sell gold now",people think to themselves,"wait a minute i dont have any gold,i better get some.!"Soon (not so little) ladies investment group u.s.a ,eager to get back the money these crooks on wall street took will come running back to gold still able to remember 1980 and earlier.

Wall street is turning green,as the 2 trillion on the sidelines starts a huge drive to the precious metals.As the dow dips or even goes sideways gold and silver drive up ever faster.I believe the cartel lost control of gold at 308/per oz.In 2 weeks it climbed to 326 and higher,not numbers those in control want to see,no wonder drumsfeld flew to india."stop it now,your driving gold prices out of control" To which the pakistanis replied ,"have you seen our new nukes?"This situation cannot be stopped and soon the american public will be turning to the DOw,nasdaq exits.

At this rate gold should hit 341 in 2 weeks and in about 1 month the dreaded 354 to 360 price that snaps the cabals backs.Those damn paper gold shorts are gonna blink soon.MOnday should get real interesting.Its JUne boys watch out!!!!
Black Blade
(06/01/2002; 17:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77253)
Rumsfeld heading to India, Pakistan

WASHINGTON -- As an Indian official warned that war is growing more likely, President Bush said he will send Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to India and Pakistan in the next week to try to defuse tensions between the two nuclear powers. The chief minister of Indian-controlled Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, warned, ''If cross-border terrorism and mortar firing is not stopped (by Pakistan), there's nothing that can prevent a major conflict.''

Black Blade: Cross border attacks continue today. Last night Pakistan ordered at total blackout on fears of imminent air attack. Indian officials have stated that war was imminent and that cross border invasions could start within two weeks. Pakistani troops have been moved from the Afghani border to Kashmir. Pakistani generals have stated that they reserve the right to first use of nuclear weapons due to their disadvantage in conventional warfare material, all the while Musharraf has stated that only a madman would use nuclear weapons in spite of each country manufacturing more. Meanwhile US and UK citizens are being evacuated from both countries � including embassy personnel and their families. "Interesting Times"

(06/01/2002; 17:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77254)
Re:Pippin (06/01/02; 14:49:33MT - msg#: 77249)
"I did not know that Newmont was hedged btw."Newmont became hedged when it acquired Normandy. In the last couple of days, we have had a least five post with regards to the percentage of production that miners have hedged via Mr. Schultz and company. The article, in it's entirety was re-printed by YGM. See any of the listings below:

YGM (5/29/02; 20:09:02MT - msg#: 76916)

YGM (5/29/02; 23:45:16MT - msg#: 76952)

JCTex (05/30/02; 08:21:17MT - msg#: 76996)

Troy Boy (05/30/02; 08:14:31MT - msg#: 76994)

Canuck (5/30/02; 05:05:23MT - msg#: 76976)

(06/01/2002; 17:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77255)
GoldnSilver2002 (06/01/02; 16:29:41MT - msg#: 77252)
You Said It!We all (most) tend to forget about the gazillions $$ right here in N America, Mexico, S America and Europe when we focus on the Gold buying power of India, Japan, China & Arabs etc....Big, Big, GOLD HUNGRY WORLD out there!!!

I firmly believe we're watching what will be much recorded
history in the making....Let'er rip!

Central Banksters and their NWO domination are going to get a dose of peaceful revolution thru mass exodus from their Fiat tyranny and monetary/financial brainwashing....YGM

PS: GATA will never outlive it's purpose or usefulness. I believe it will always be around as a Worldly Watch-Dog & possibly the people's "Advocate" in as yet unknown arenas!
Just my opinion tho....YGM
(06/01/2002; 18:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77256)
Recorded in History.........And "History" it will be! are 72 Names on the GATA Honor Roll. Names of those who were out there chin first. Publicly standing out and up for their beliefs. Now noone would think less of those who financialy supported GATA thru donations made in silence cause there are so many and anonyminity must be respected for whatever reason.....Without the silent masses the GATA war probably could not have been waged.....

But the Honor Roll should have "Thousands" of names on it, not just 72.....

I believe with all my heart and soul that the 'Gold Anti- Trust Action Committee' will cause books to be written in future times.....GATA is and will be the primary reason that Central Banks were foiled in the 'Greatest Gold Scam' of all time! Reg Howe and so many others will have their recorded place also, but GATA is the Army that took the Battle to the forefront.

This GATA Army 'Honor Roll' will serve as an Epitaph when we the few "True Advocates" of Gold are long gone and forgotten!

Disclaimer: This post has no connection to the GATA Officers and is unauthorized and entirely my personal thoughts.....YGM.
(06/01/2002; 18:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77257)
Turkey Hunter, Slingshot, Kevin$
Congratulations to all of you, well done! I raise my beer to you as I head for my lawn chair to finish Hubbert's Peak...cheers to the winning contestants!

Cavan Man
(06/01/2002; 18:41:29 MDT - Msg ID: 77258)
Top Financial News

06/01 10:17
Dollar May Extend Record Stretch of Declines: Currency Outlook
By Beth Thomas

New York, June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may continue to fall against the euro as investors move capital away from the U.S. on concern the pace of recovery is slowing.

``There is a fundamental shift out of U.S. dollar investments going on,'' said Laurie Cameron, head of global foreign exchange in New York at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s private bank, which invests $300 billion. The U.S. is ``not going to be able to attract huge new chunks of foreign capital'' needed to support the dollar, she said.

The U.S. currency dropped for a record fourth month against the euro, sinking 3.5 percent in May to 93.33 cents per euro. The dollar's four-month drop against the yen, to 124.26 yen, was the longest since the last half of 1999. It touched a 16-month low against the euro and a six-month low versus the yen on Thursday.

Against a basket of currencies including the yen, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar has lost 5.8 percent of its value so far this quarter.

More than $1 billion a day flows from the U.S. to foreign hands as a result of the U.S. current-account deficit, which swelled to a record $417.4 billion in 2001. That leaves the currency vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries.

``There's a growing questioning of the ability of the U.S. to continue to finance (the deficit) as it has done up to now,'' said Tim O'Dell, who helps oversee about $25 billion at Investec Asset Management in London.

Money Flows

Europeans bought $17.1 billion more stocks and bonds from U.S. investors than they sold in January and February, down from $54 billion in the same period a year earlier, and compared with $61 billion in the first two months of 2000, according to U.S. Treasury figures.

Money managers are turning outside the world's largest economy on expectations growth and corporate profits may be slow to recover from recession. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a 40-year low of 1.75 percent last year, returns on U.S. fixed-income investments are also less appealing.

Yields on 10-year German bunds, for example, are 11.5 basis points higher than those on U.S. Treasury notes of the same maturity. That's a reversal from two months ago, when the U.S. debt had a 17 basis-point advantage.

In the past, ``if you're a European or Japanese investor, you'd invest in the U.S. because you expect better returns,'' said Guillaume Sciard, who manages 2.2 billion euros ($2 billion) at Barclays Asset Management France in Paris. ``Now there's a question mark about the U.S. currency.''

Euro `Magnet'

Sciard holds more euro-denominated bonds relative to his benchmarks than dollars, British pounds and yen. He said the euro may climb to $1 by the end of the year.

Reports showing German business confidence rose for a sixth month in seven are fueling optimism for growth in the 12-nation economy and stoking demand for assets in the common currency, investors said.

``There's a serious possibility the euro is going to emerge as a leading magnet for disaffected dollar money,'' said Investec's O'Dell, who holds ``significantly'' more euro- denominated investments than suggested by his benchmarks.

Money also flows to Europe as a result of the current-account surplus, which grew to 3.7 billion euros ($3.45 billion) in March from a deficit of 600 million euros ($560 million) a year earlier, the European Central Bank said.

``The euro has got a good shot at becoming the currency of the year,'' said Peter Fontaine at KBC Asset Management in Brussels, which invests 25 billion euros in bonds.


Some investors disagree.

``There are problems in the U.S., but productivity growth is still much higher than in Europe,'' said Joop Bresser, who helps oversee 17 billion euros ($15 billion) at Delta Lloyd Asset Management in Amsterdam. ``I'm in doubt about whether this euro rally will continue.''

The U.S. economy will expand at an annualized 3.1 percent this quarter, compared with 5.6 percent in the first, according to the consensus of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The European Commission cut its growth estimates to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent for the first quarter and to between 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent in the second for the dozen-nation economy.

Yen Sales?

Japan's yen rose as foreign investors lifted the Nikkei 225 stock index 17 percent in the past four months. Overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks for the six weeks ended May 24, according to the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

A report next week will show the world's No. 2 economy grew an annualized 6.8 percent in the January-March period, according to economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The prospect of a recovery from Japan's worst post-war recession is bolstering optimism for the country's assets, some investors said.

Still, the yen's rally may stall on concern Japan will again sell the currency. The central bank sold the yen on three days in the past two weeks to keep it from gaining more and eroding exporters' earnings.

``We are paying close attention to the currency,'' as ``we can expect them to come in regularly and slow any rapid moves,'' said Andrew Milligan, who helps manage 75 billion pounds ($110 billion) at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh.

(06/01/2002; 19:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77259)
War Analysis-It May be a Long One...With Big Trouble at the End
Judging by the way international crises are going at present, DEBKAfile's military experts do not rule out the possibility of the fall months of September and October 2002 seeing three full-scale wars raging at one and the same time, between India and Pakistan, the US and Iraq and Israel and the Palestinians.
To ward off an additional complication, Bush applied all his powers of persuasion to making Russian president Vladimir Putin cut back on technological and military aid for completing the development of Iran's nuclear weapons capability. This was the main topic at issue between the two presidents when they met in the third week of May. Putin promised to see what he could do, but nothing has so far been known to happen.

Pakistan's nuclear weaponry is a worry to Washington, as much as the Iranian and Iraqi nuclear capabilities. Though saying little, the US administration has been haunted by the thought of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Muslim extremists like al Qaeda. It would therefore welcome the elimination of Islamabad's nuclear option, even if this came about as a result of a full-scale Indo-Pakistani war.
DEBKAfile's military and Asian sources disclose that both sides have laid their war plans for the worst-case scenario:
India's Strategy: Indian troops would drive into different parts of Pakistan: Jumping off from Amritsar in the Punjab, they will head west and advance on the east Pakistani towns of Gujranwala, Lahore and Faisalabad, hotbeds of Muslim extremist groups, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jamat al Dawa and al Qaeda militants, who provide recruits to be trained for combat n Kashmir. The Indian army appears to be preparing to emulate some of the tactics employed in the Israel Preventive Shield Operation against Palestinian towns in April.
Pakistan's Strategy: The Pakistani army is not big enough to match India's ability to fight on three fronts. Its generals will therefore focus on an all-out attempt to leap from the Pakistani Punjab to the Indian Punjab and on south to HaryanaState. A second task force will collect in the central Pakistani region of Bahawalpur ready to spring into IndianHaryanaState and cover the distance to New Delhi. The chances of these two forces actually reaching the gates of New Delhi are slim, but the attempt calls for audacity.

American intelligence evaluations of the progress of the Indo-Pakistan war recently swung round sharply from a short, intense conflict to a drawn-out struggle that could stretch over many months, together with an estimate of between four to six weeks into the fighting before either of the belligerents considers whether or not to bring out its nuclear weapons.

Note the incursion style [Jenin] strategy planned by India.

It's tough to argue against this position when the "Termites" keep coming East.
(06/01/2002; 21:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77260)
Gold dealers doing big business
"On Friday, as gold prices rose to their highest level in more than two years, coin and precious metals dealers said their phones won't stop ringing.

"The world has changed," said George Cooper of Centennial Precious Metals, a Denver-based company with dozens of customers in the Twin Cities. "I get calls from New York City, and they wouldn't have talked to me two years ago to save my life. They believed in Wall Street, and now they're basically running scared. Greed feeds the stock market, fear feeds the gold market."

Cooper, who normally can all but close up shop in the summer but is now thinking about hiring sales help, is much more optimistic. He thinks that by year's end the price of gold will go up at least a $100 an ounce or more.

"I can hear the fear in their voice that all is not well," he said. "It's nervous buying, driven by fear. People are looking for safety and security, and that's what gold provides."

Waverider: Way to go CPM!
(06/01/2002; 21:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77261)
what happens if a nuclear bomb blows up in your home town? you can plot the distruction and the fallout of a typical blast from a nuclear bomb and superimpose the image over your home town.
Do you think that perhaps the Pakistan leadership is presently being shown stuff like this (along with video)
to give them pause?

P.S. congrats to the winners!
Chris Powell
(06/01/2002; 23:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77262)
Reg Howe's presentation to the mining analyst conference in London ET Sunday, June 2, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Reg Howe's presentation to the Association of Mining
Analysts in London on May 23 has been posted at You can find it here:

With his usual brilliance, Reg describes the background
of his lawsuit against the gold cabal in U.S. District
Court in Boston, the meaning of Judge Lindsay's decision,
the history of the United States' conversion from money
of intrinsic money to inconvertible paper money, the
evidence of surreptitious rigging of the gold price by
governments, and where all this leaves us.

It's must reading, and ranks with the last investigative
report by James Turk of the Freemarket Gold and Money
Report and Robert K. Landis' essay about Barrick's hedge

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
(06/02/2002; 00:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77263)
Survey sees strong recovery for silver in 2002,3523,1092476-49567233-0,00.htmlSnippit:
"Global demand for silver is expected to recover strongly over the rest of 2002, thanks to the global economic recovery, according to the World Silver Survey 2002, which was released on Thursday.

Although the structural deficit between fabrication demand and conventional supply (mine production and recycled scrap) was 89.4 million ounces in 2001, the survey noted that this gap was almost entirely filled by the net government stock sales. Chinese government sales accounted for 75% of the world's total of official stock sales, but the survey concluded that China does not have the capacity to supply indefinitely the market at the kind of levels seen in the past three years.

Moreover, the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency transferred its remaining silver stockpile to the U.S. Mint for its coinage programs during the course of 2001. The U.S. Mint is now exploring legislative authority to purchase silver from the open market for its silver coinage programmes."

Waverider: Interesting fundamentals for Silver...does anyone know how much silver the US Mint uses each year? TIA!
(06/02/2002; 02:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77264)
The US$
The US$ has been but will not remain, the practical confetti,
used to settle trade between those who produce *REAL* products and those who consume this products. The gap between these two different groups of dollar-exchangers is widening dramatically. Real Production of Real goods has shifted out of the hands of those (westerners) who represented (backed) the intrinsic value of this US$-practical. This enormous discrepancy goes much further than the US trade deficit alone. The complacent capitalistic West (Euroland included) has nested itself into this *systemic*, "one" way street. In so many places on this globe, tonnes of sweat, humidify disgracefull poverty.

This deepening contrast between real producers and drunken consumers, remains relatively invisible. WAT is instrumental for adding more and more cover producing more of this opaque "invisibility". Modern enslavement and subtle exploitation only to be realized by world-citizens with a gifted minimum of objectivity. This tactical play (?) is still loudly covered with that old culture of paternalistic "do good" blahblahblah. But MUCH more is taken than is given. A dramatic dis-proportion. An explosive dis-harmony.

Gold and the possession of it, is easely understandable for those producing "new" masses of real goods of today. That makes Gold such a very dangerous competitor for our substitutional confetti. The dollar, as reserve currency in an expanding trading world, has been condemned to raise all efforts possible for maintaining a certain degree of "blind" confidence in it. A dollar-paper, outside the consuming West has a dramatic other meaning. It is considered as the ultimate store of tiny small surplusses out of all this billion gallons of new producer's sweat.

When the POG, should only give one little universal signal, that there should be a reason to doubt about its "real" value...the systemic construction of modern slavery would collapse. All those so very, very different "dollar-holdings" would be put into question. Yes, indeed the US$ is "overowned" by officials and individuals as well! And it is on a dangerous global scale. Those broadly dispersed "trillions" of dollar-savings/unfunctional surplusses (???) do NOT represent future value for future REAL products. Too much paper for a disproportionate amount of real products still to be (impossibly) produced by the new majority of new producing dollar holders.

All these dollar - holders, worldwide, don't dare to stare this threat into the eyes. No one dreams of getting Argentinized. But we already are !

Euroland continues to work on its escape from the final resulting dollar distrust and collapse. The majority of Real producers has no such escape valve, other than the universal refuge into Gold. Some have already embrased Gold's refuge against their respective sweat-currencies.
But the worst has still to come with the dollar-collapse, where I do suspect that all other currencies will lose purchasing power within that reckoning global hyperinflation, Yes HYPER !.

The underlying fundamental for this intuitive prediction is the arrogant complacency of *consumerism* exploiting honest productive sweat (blood will be added soon). Being sincerely honest with oneself...we are getting more and more for less and less effort. Great...but NOT sustainable ad infinitum ! Timing, we have a clue on timing ? Yes we have ! Almost zero interest rates in the dollar-block and $ confetti almost for free on condition you do something/anything with it ...whatever...consume or start another nonsense (not real productive) enterprise!

When we capitulate (hughe rising interest rates), Gold will automatically break FREE ! Capitulate, when the "system" breaks down under its own weight. When REAL GOODS start to value the confetti in use. When the fata morgana of "free trade" has been unmasked, by the means of unrevivable, dying global contraction and hyper-concentration for the mighty few. It is n this global context that China/Russia/Eurasia and the Middle East are going to be extremely important to decide on our future. WAT is a very, very BAD starter for an integrated future of new versus old!

This will / must and shall go WRONG ! A nice weekend, nevertheless.
(06/02/2002; 04:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77265)
Argentina to Slowly End Bank Freeze
Excuse MY French but ... What complete B*llsh*t !!!

The title should read :

Argentina Bank Deposits are History !

Snippit :
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) - Argentina announced an ambitious plan Saturday to slowly phase out a hated banking freeze, offering savings-account holders a choice of bonds maturing in between three and 10 years.

Golden Bear
(06/02/2002; 06:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77266)
Nomad (msg#: 77265) Argentina to Slowly End Bank Freeze article states that the Argentines are about to strike a deal with the IMF for emergency funding to "ease" the crisis.

Looks like they want another dose of destructive IMF idiocy at the their expense, and the IMF cronies will pick up Argentine assets for even cheaper than they are now.

Explained beautifully by Greg Pallast at link above... and the name Enron reappears, and the jigsaw fits into place why Cheney will not disclose documents to congress regarding the meetings with the energy executives... welcome to our brave new fascist world.


"....GP: Yea, So then they backed off and said yea those documents are authentic but we are not going to discuss them with you and we are going to keep you off the air anyway. So, that's that. But what they were saying is look, you take a country like Argentina, which is, you know, in flames now. And it has had five presidents in five weeks because their economy is completely destroyed.
AJ: Isn't it six now?
GP: Yea, it's like the weekly president because they can't hold the nation together. And this happened because they started out in the end of the 80s with orders from the IMF and World Bank to sell-off all their assets, public assets. I mean, things we wouldn't think of doing in the US, like selling off their water system.
AJ: So they tax the people. They create big government and big government hands it off to the private IMF/World Bank. And when we get back, I want to get to the four-parts that you elegantly lay out here where they actually pay off the politicians billions to their Swiss bank accounts to do this transfer.
GP: That's right.
AJ: This is like one of the biggest stories ever, Sir. I'm sorry, please continue.
GP: So what's happening is - this is just one of them. And by the way, it's not just anyone who gets a piece of the action. The water system of Buenos Aires was sold off for a song to a company called Enron. A pipeline was sold off, that runs between Argentina and Chile, was sold off to a company called Enron.
AJ: And then the globalists blow out the Enron after transferring the assets to another dummy corporation and then they just roll the theft items off.
GP: You've got it. And by the way, you know why they moved the pipeline to Enron is that they got a call from somebody named George W. Bush in 1988..."
Cavan Man
(06/02/2002; 07:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77267)
Where is POG rising at this hour?
Clint H
(06/02/2002; 07:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77268)
Golden Bear (06/02/02; 06:50:43MT - msg#: 77266
--Explained beautifully by Greg Pallast at link above...

Everything written is not necessarily true. Half truths sell. DYODD.
(06/02/2002; 07:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77269)
I noticed that too. The INO gold quote, on top of this page, is the nearby contract month, the July futures price. The change from Friday's NY close must have occurred in an Asian (Singapore?) or an Arab market on Saturday.
(06/02/2002; 09:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77270)
From USAGOLD News Feed Rises, Manufacturing Expands: U.S. Economy By Carlos Torres and Terry Barrett
Washington, June 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies added workers for a straight second month and manufacturing expanded in May, evidence the economic recovery is taking hold, reports this week will probably show................
``The economic recovery does appear to be developing staying power and even gaining momentum,�� Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management in St. Louis, said.
At the same time, the jobless rate probably rose last month to 6.1 percent, the highest in almost eight years, from 6 percent in April. Unemployment often increases at the start of a recovery because people start looking for jobs and companies remain cautious about hiring.
The economy is likely to expand at a 3.1 percent annual pace this quarter after growing at a 5.6 percent rate from January through March, according to the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast. For the year, the economy will probably expand 2.8 percent, compared with 1.2 percent in 2001.........................
-- The Commerce Department will probably report on Friday that inventories at wholesalers rose 0.1 percent in April, the first increase in 16 months, as distributors replenished depleted stockpiles.
-- Also on Friday, the Federal Reserve is expected to report that consumer borrowing rose by $6 billion in April after a $4.6 billion increase the previous month.....Tuesday, June 4
Montreal: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan participates in a panel discussion on central banking at the International Monetary Conference....(click link for more)
EVERYTHING'S fine, now didn't we tell you, WHAT recession?, not in the world's superpower, now just lay back down on that couch.
(06/02/2002; 09:28:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77271)
Sippets and gold humour
www.dailyreckoning.comBeen so busy I am about 100 emails behind. Thought the forum would enjoy these extracts from the abve free newsletter. Bill Bonner and Eric Fry are as entertaining as ever!
Best wishes to all fellow goldbugs

For all the fireworks in the gold market, it remains a
remarkably petite sector. The global gold share market
is only about $70 billion, and that's after the massive
rally that has occurred over the last few months. What's
more, the open interest of all gold futures contracts
currently trading on the Comex totals little more than
$6 billion.

- The universe of gold stocks and Comex open interest
combined totals less than $80 billion - or less than
half of Intel's $191 billion market capitalization.
"At the end of 2001, outstanding credit in the United
States totaled almost $29 trillion," Dr. Kurt
Richebacher observes. See:

- Part of gold's growing appeal is that it has no CEO.
It has no chairman of the board, and most of all, it has
no option-laden management team. It is simply "Gold."
And that's a refreshing change for investors who have
grown tired of suffering abuse from self-serving
corporate managements

Everyone's talking about gold...still, only 1% of mutual
fund industry assets are in gold. Who knows what would
happen if mutual fund investors ever wanted 2% of their
assets in gold! Or Japanese investors, even...

"Japanese buying of gold is tiny," writes Marc Faber,
"when compared to the country's GDP per capita. Japan
currently imports only about 100 tons of gold annually
for a population of 120 million with a GDP per capita of
more than US$35,000. Compare this to India, which
imports close to 900 tons of gold for a population of
one billion but with a GDP per capita of only around

"Compared to India's purchases with a far lower
purchasing power, Japan's gold buying has so far been
very small, but it could rise significantly in the
future and become a price-driving factor in the gold

- The buzz these days is about gold, and the higher its
price climbs, the louder the buzz. Yesterday, the yellow
metal coasted to its sixth straight winning session - up
$2.20 to $318.30.

- Most of the buzz about gold focuses on that age-old
debate: Is the rally almost over or just beginning? No
one knows, of course. But everyone has an opinion. Even
CNBC is spewing nonstop nonsensical blather about the
gold market. From a contrarian standpoint, CNBC's 24/7
gold market coverage is bad news for the gold price. The
good news, however, is that almost all the "experts"
appearing on TV dismiss the gold rally as a fleeting

- In the eyes of most CNBC talking heads, the gold
market's recent strength is freakish - like a two-headed
billy goat. Gold stocks may be more popular than they
used to be, but they are far from popular.

- It's been a lot of fun to watch mutual fund managers
and financial journalists try to grapple with something
as alien as a gold rally. Much of the "analysis" is
comically uninformed. One financial commentator
mentioned gold "ig-nots" a couple of times, when he
meant to say "ingots." We would have to assume,
therefore, that the commentator is an "ig-not-ramus"
about the gold market. He seems to have plenty of

(06/02/2002; 09:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77272)
Another Al Queda threat?
http:/ Al Qaeda Tells U.S. to Get Ready for Attack
June 02, 2002 � CAIRO (Reuters) - The pan-Arab daily al-Hayat published Sunday what it said was a statement from an al Qaeda spokesman warning the United States to get ready for another attack.
"What is coming to the Americans will not, by the will of God, be less than what has come," the newspaper quoted al Qaeda spokesman Sulaiman bu Ghaith as saying in a statement.
"So beware, America. Get ready. Get prepared. Put on the safety belt," he said in a statement al-Hayat said was published on the Web site.
The Web site, which has in the past regularly carried news on Afghanistan and statements it said came from Taliban leaders, could not be accessed immediately by Reuters.
The site published a statement in April it said was from Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.
Bu Ghaith, a Kuwaiti-born cleric who emerged as an al Qaeda spokesman after the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington, said al Qaeda would continue to hit Americans, Jews and their targets, either "individuals or institutions." link for more...... This story appears fabricated in the growing tradition of intelligence agency disinformation. What it lacks in details, it definitely doesn't compensate for in originality.
(06/02/2002; 09:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77273)
Reginald Howe's Comments at the May 23, 2002 Association of Mining Analysts Conference:"Money in Court�Paving the Road to Ruin"

[�Where does that leave us? What's ahead? Three observations:

POWER OF THE INTERNET. First, although the case was dismissed, the point was made. Even without pre-trial discovery under court procedures, the GATA army has produced ample evidence. It may never be presented in court, but much of it has been presented on the Internet. Facts speak for themselves. The allegations of the complaint are widely accepted because all the assembled evidence permits no other reasonable conclusion. We may never know all the details, but we do know to a virtual certainty that gold prices have been officially suppressed in a major way since sometime beginning around 1995. What's more, they have been rising steadily since the judge's March 26 decision, hardly a vote of no confidence in the truth of the basic allegations.

POWER OF GOLD. Second, if gold were not permanent, natural money, I would have had antitrust standing just like the copper users and the soybean farmers did. What's more, if gold were the barbarous monetary relic that many like to claim, the G-10 central bankers would not have been so interested in rigging the gold market. Nor would they have tried to have their cake and eat it too by leasing huge amounts of gold for sale into the market rather than selling it outright.

POWER OF THE CONSTITUTION. Third, the American Constitution is neither a technical legal document nor simply a declaration of rights. It is a plan of government. But it is not self-executing. Its power rests on the fidelity of the governed to the plan and to the wisdom that it embodies. The proof of Gladstone's statement lies in the results, which have been pretty good when the Constitution is followed, as happens most of the time, but not so good on the few occasions when it has been seriously violated.

The nation's greatest constitutional convulsion -- the battle over slavery -- came in the one area where the plan could not be perfected at the time of its adoption due to irreconcilable sectional differences. More recently, the Vietnam experience demonstrated the folly of sending an army of half a million men, mostly draftees, to fight on the other side of the world without obtaining at least the practical equivalent of what the Constitution expressly requires: a declaration of war by Congress.

At its most fundamental level, the Constitution provides for three branches of government -- legislative, executive, and judicial -- not four. It does not confer a separate banking power -- and certainly not the power to issue unlimited amounts of paper money -- on an independent central bank, let alone one that is effectively exempt from any serious judicial review. Yet in the real world, that is what exists today.

The road ahead is the road we are on -- a road paved by the courts and already taken too far. It is, and it has always been, the royal road to ruin: the well-worn path which, as the framers of the Constitution knew from both history and personal experience, is traveled by all who chose government paper over gold or silver as their standard of value. ]
(06/02/2002; 10:13:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77274)
The Hijackers We Let Escape
Really Big Credibility Problems at CIAThe CIA tracked two suspected terrorists to a Qaeda summit in Malaysia in January 2000, then looked on as they re-entered America and began preparations for September 11. Inside what may be the worst intelligence failure of all. A NEWSWEEK exclusive: By Michael Isikoff and Daniel Klaidman

June 10 � Kuala Lumpur is an easy choice if you're looking to lie low. Clean and modern, with reliable telephones, banks and Internet service, the Malaysian city is a painless flight from most world capitals�and Muslim visitors don't need visas to enter the Islamic country.

THAT MAY EXPLAIN WHY Al Qaeda chose the sprawling metropolis for a secret planning summit in early January 2000. Tucked away in a posh suburban condominium overlooking a Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course, nearly a dozen of Osama bin Laden's trusted followers, posing as tourists, plotted future terrorist strikes against the United States.

At the time, the men had no idea that they were being closely watched�or that the CIA already knew some of their names. A few days earlier, U.S. intelligence had gotten wind of the Qaeda gathering. Special Branch, Malaysia's security service, agreed to follow and photograph the suspected terrorists. They snapped pictures of the men sightseeing and ducking into cybercafes to check Arabic Web sites.

What happened next, some U.S. counterterrorism officials say, may be the most puzzling, and devastating, intelligence failure in the critical months before September 11. A few days after the Kuala Lumpur meeting, NEWSWEEK has learned, the CIA tracked one of the terrorists, Nawaf Alhazmi, as he flew from the meeting to Los Angeles. Agents discovered that another of the men, Khalid Almihdhar, had already obtained a multiple-entry visa that allowed him to enter and leave the United States as he pleased. (They later learned that he had in fact arrived in the United States on the same flight as Alhazmi.)

Yet astonishingly, the CIA did nothing with this information. Agency officials didn't tell the INS, which could have turned them away at the border, nor did they notify the FBI, which could have covertly tracked them to find out their mission. Instead, during the year and nine months after the CIA identified them as terrorists, Alhazmi and Almihdhar lived openly in the United States, using their real names, obtaining driver's licenses, opening bank accounts and enrolling in flight schools�until the morning of September 11, when they walked aboard American Airlines Flight 77 and crashed it into the Pentagon.


Until now, the many questions about intelligence shortcomings leading up to the attacks have focused on the FBI's clear failure to connect various vague clues that might have put them on the trail of the terrorists. Last week, in the aftermath of Minnesota agent Coleen Rowley's scathing letter ripping the FBI for ignoring warnings from the field, Director Robert Mueller announced a series of reforms aimed at modernizing the bureau.

All along, however, the CIA's Counterterrorism Center�base camp for the agency's war on bin Laden�was sitting on information that could have led federal agents right to the terrorists� doorstep. Almihdhar and Alhazmi, parading across America in plain sight, could not have been easier to find. NEWSWEEK has learned that when Almihdhar's visa expired, the State Department, not knowing any better, simply issued him a new one in June 2001�even though by then the CIA had linked him to one of the suspected bombers of the USS Cole in October 2000. The two terrorists� frequent meetings with the other September 11 perpetrators could have provided federal agents with a road map to the entire cast of 9-11 hijackers.
(06/02/2002; 11:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77275)
Sunday's Daily Reckoning
The Daily Reckoning
Weekend Edition
June 1-2, 2002
Paris, France
By Addison Wiggin

MARKET REVIEW: The Recovery IS Right On Track, Isn't It?

The recession is over. Everyone who's anyone agrees.
Your gloomy sourpuss editors might even be tempted to do
the same. After all, who are we to stem the tides of

Still it's a funny recovery, indeed. While official
reports for "productivity" put the economy on the speed
train to Impressiveville... a short look at the balance
sheets of America's household show that whatever gains
might be had from increased productivity are lost on the
American consumer.

A report from the Labor Department released on Friday
suggests US productivity grew at its fastest pace in
almost two decades. "Strong productivity growth means
that corporate profits are rebounding," Mark Vitner of
Wachovia Securities told Bloomberg, "and that is
probably the most critical element in a recovery right

Still, according to Financial Times, the number of
Americans "on the dole" this week reached a 19-year high
this week. Nearly 4 million people are collecting
unemployment on an ongoing basis, the highest number
since January 15th, 1983.

Likewise, if the economy is on the rebound what do you
make of these figures: "The average U.S. household
carries credit card debt of $8,367," writes colleague
and friend James Boric. "Late payments on credit cards
reached a five-year high in April 2002. And Write-offs
by banks of uncollectable credit card debt have reached
an 11-year high.

Meanwhile, "personal bankruptcy filings are expected to
hit an all-time high this year. Household debt for those
65 and older is up 164% over the last eight years. And
according the Consumer Bankruptcy Project, about 82,000
Americans 65 or older filed for bankruptcy in 2001, up
244% from 1991."

At this rate America's private balance sheets will have
a dog's night in hell trying to get back to zero... let
alone reach the positive wealth-building side of the
ledger. And, suggests Dr. Kurt Richebacher, that throws
a bit of a wrench into the recovery scenario.

Dr. Richebacher: "In America, traditional economic
thinking has it that the most important element of the
economy's demand is consumer spending. There is an
underlying view that as long as there is sufficient
consumer demand, everything else, like profit and
investment spending, will take care of itself.

"Taken literally, this perception of the overriding role
of consumption in the economic growth process implies
reasonable disregard of anything else. In fact,
disregard of profits and capital investment is the
essence of American economics. Profits and the prospect
for profits are almost solely of interest with respect
to the stock market."

The trouble with the recession-recovery scenario as
proposed by this week's "news" is this: At the expense
of consumer paychecks, corporations have made themselves
lean, mean productivity machines. But when the mountains
of debt begin to collapse and consumers are left gasping
beneath them jobless - who's going to buy all the
"stuff" we've produced?

Okay, so I'm being a bit melodramatic. Besides there's
always stocks to make the consumer whole again, right?
The 'buy and hold' crowd seem to think so, at least. The
Dow closed up slightly on Friday and managed to keep
itself within an earshot of the 10,000 range. The Nasdaq
only lost 45 for the week closing at 1,615 and the S&P
500 stayed in the game by trading sideways itself. The
old lady of Wall Street closed down 16 for the week at

It's just... well, too bad... or at least aggravating...
that corporate insiders don't agree. A report from Floyd
Norris at the NYTimes reveals during over the last 8
weeks there have been 4.2 insiders sells for every
insider purchase reported - the highest ratio on record
than at any time since the bull market began in earnest
during the '90s.

So let me ask you this, if insiders are aren't buying
the productivity-goosed recovery story... should you?

Bon weekend,

Addison Wiggin
The Daily Reckoning
(06/02/2002; 11:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77276)
Sunday Reading Room.....**Click Recent Articles Bar & Scroll down.


Mar 2, 2001
Author: Tom Rose


It was the early sixties, the Kennedy Administration was in full swing with its pro-Keynesian monetary and fiscal policies, and the country still enjoyed the sparkling tinkle of real silver coins. We were not yet cursed with those clunky cupra-nickel dimes, quarters, and half-dollars. Anyone who wished could still go to their bank and trade a paper Federal Reserve Note for a real silver dollar that weighed a full three-quarters of an ounce of 90-percent pure silver.

At that time I was serving as director of economic education for a state manufacturers' organization called the Associated Industries of Missouri, located in St. Louis, Missouri. The Monsanto Company, whose home office was also in St. Louis, had sponsored a two-week long economics seminar for mid-level executives to which I had been invited. There were 26 attendees, with the lecturer being a professor of economics from the University of Chicago, the citadel of modern monetarism.

Things went well during the first week of lectures, while the topics centered on basic economics and labor relations. But when the discussion turned to monetary and fiscal policy during the second week, a deep difference in philosophy began to divide those in the meeting. I found myself pitted against the professor and the other 25 young executives. They all favored a high degree of governmental involvement in the economy and a steady policy of gradual monetary inflation to "keep the economy stimulated towards full employment."

One day in the heat of discussion I pointed out that the federal government was at that very moment in the process of steadily inflating the money supply, and that this would eventually erode the purchasing power of the US dollar. The other attendees scoffed at this by claiming that the dollar would always be worth 100 cents! Agreeing that a dollar will always have 100 cents because it is officially denominated as being composed of 100 cents, nevertheless I pointed out that it did not necessarily follow that those 100 cents would buy as many goods and services ten years in the future if the federal government continued the inflationary monetary policy it was then following.

In the early 1960s the money supply was expanding at approximately two percent per year, and the general price level was also rising at about the same rate. Today, of course, the money supply is being inflated somewhere between 8-12 percent per year (this still holds true in the year 2001, depending upon which monetary statistic one chooses as a guide! And the US dollar, as a result, has been falling in value relative to foreign currencies. It is interesting to note that, as this article was being written in the fall of 1994, the Federal Reserve Bank and the central banks of the other leading nations recently purchased some three billion of American dollars in the foreign exchange market in a vain attempt to prop up the price of the Dollar internationally. The long-continued monetary inflation pursued by the Federal Reserve since the early 1960s has slowly but surely served to weaken the desire of investors and monetary speculators to hold dollar-denominated bonds. For many years Federal Reserve officials have been wearing "false whiskers" when making public pronouncements: To the public, Federal Reserve officials have consistently posed as great defenders of the purchasing power of the dollar, but, in practice, they have insidiously served as compliant accomodators to a spendthrift Congress through the Fed's willingness to purchase more and more government bonds to monetize the federal government's spiraling debt.

When both the lecturer and the other young executives hooted at the idea that the dollar would ever lose its purchasing power, I responded by telling them that I had been hoarding silver coins for some time and also had been taking silver certificates to the Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis to exchange them for silver dollars. At this, the other attendees and the lecturer scoffed and retorted that I was engaging in a useless exercise. My reply was simple and direct: That the price of silver had been steadily rising. That soon the price of silver would reach the point where it would be profitable to take silver dollars and subsidiary silver coins and melt them down for sale as bulion. That at that point, we would see silver coins begin disappearing from circulation. My recommendation to them was to start hoarding silver coins and silver dollars too, for the day was soon coming when the silver coins would no longer be in circulation. This advice generated hoots of derision, to which I replied, "Remember this discussion ten years from now, then we'll know who is right and who is wrong!" ..........Cont'd
(06/02/2002; 12:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77277)
YGM MSGS.#77276/77275
Get on board. We are going to the POOR HOUSE!Read both your posts and the link attached. What more do you need to know for you to invest in Gold.

What is fueling the economy? Image and Got to Have It syndrome. Don't worry about how much it cost, we can finance it at easy payments. Today people ride around in SUV's and can't make their house payments. But they sure look good in that SUV. In some cases the SUV cost more than their house. Misplaced consumerism. Two hundred dollar sneakers. Three hundred dollar video games. Got to have it.
Years of TV advertisments. Easy credit at every turn.
Somewhere along the line we lost it. Was it just parents trying to give the children a better life while imprinting they can pay for it all later? Well, this is turning into a rant. Enjoyed your posts.
WW Oracle
(06/02/2002; 13:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 77278)
Gold and Silver return as money? Won't be long now! companies now have to sell dollars over one million to the central bank. What can they do other than buy gold and silver with their rapidly-depreciating pesos? If Argentina had bullion coins they'd be on a pm standard already. All that's needed now is for someone to start bartering onzas for exports.
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 13:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 77279)
Russian oil giant to deliver first crude to U.S. this summer

MOSCOW � Russia's No. 2 oil producer Yukos will send its first tankers to the United States this summer, a top executive said Thursday, as part of a Russian effort to offer U.S. consumers an alternative to Persian Gulf oil. Russia currently supplies a tiny percentage of U.S. imports, but U.S. officials have expressed interest in increasing Russia's share of the market. Oil is Russia's chief export and oil export taxes are a big part of the national budget. "We plan to start pilot oil shipments to the U.S. East Coast or the Gulf of Mexico," Mikhail Brudno, first vice president of Yukos, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying at an investor conference. "For Russia to become a primary supplier to the U.S., it probably requires some additional infrastructure," Yukos chief financial officer Bruce Misamore said. "Some of the facilities that we need such as deep-water ports don't even exist."

Black Blade: As stated in the article "�.the move was largely symbolic and it is still far too expensive for them to ship large amounts of crude to American consumers." Also, "�. Russian producers can sell all their crude closer to home, it makes no sense to lose money by paying extra transportation costs." Besides, ME oil is much cheaper to produce and therefore the costs of transport more easily absorbed.
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 14:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77280)
US recovery seems lost in the anxieties

The data may be there but the investors aren't, Caroline Overington reports from New York. There is no shortage of dopey analysts on TV in the United States. Take the psychologist who was last week called upon to explain where, oh where, was the recovery in stock prices that normally came with the end of a recession? "Well," he said, while stroking his long chin, "I think investors have issues."

He is absolutely right, of course. Investors have issues with the fortune - about $US2 trillion ($3,515 billion) - they have lost on tech stocks and telecoms over the past 18 months.

They have issues with analysts who tell them to buy stocks that they secretly believe are dogs or "pieces of crap".

They have issues with accountants who fiddle the figures and then try to burn the books (or, in the modern equivalent, shred the evidence) when regulators come calling.

But even before that, investors had issues with the dodgy advice they get. Indeed, some had reached the conclusion that many stock market analysts had no idea what they were talking about.

Black Blade: As I have said repeatedly over the years, analysts are nothing by paid shills who work for companies that pump and dump shares � in short they work for legalized "Boiler Rooms". The phoney recovery touted on Wall Street is not translating into earnings. The USD keeps falling, foreigners are fleeing with their cash, the consumer and corporation is buried under crushing debt, and corporate profits have failed to materialize. No wonder Gold and Silver is steadily rising.

(06/02/2002; 15:32:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77281)
Japan's rating worsens again,7369,725707,00.htmlQuote
"The agency said the level of government indebtedness "will approach levels unprecedented in the postwar era in the developed world, and that as such Japan will be entering 'uncharted territory'."
"Moody's predicted that domestic debt would worsen over the next few years but that several features would prevent Japan from plunging into a medium-term crisis. Among them were Japan's high household savings rate and the small scale of the government's exposure to foreign creditors."

The last point is interesting: I don't clearly understand how a high household savings rate can prevent a country to face crisis and deflation. Till now, in fact, I believed that it was part of the problem - in Japan's case at least.
Can somebody explain this to me please ? Tnx.
(06/02/2002; 15:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77282)
slingshot....& All....
Pervasiveness of Banker/Banksters & Mass Complacency..When I stand in the middle of a typical suburban city block and look up and down the street I get (as of late) a sense or feeling of despair in some dark corner of my mind.

Why...because I'm overwhelmed at the knowledge that almost all I survey, be it homes, cars, trucks, boats, ATV's, motorhomes or riding lawn mowers, they are mostly owned by a Bank, sans down payment. What is wrong with this picture?

Most of us here and other forums have discussed at one time or another how we dread the hardship that is sure to come down upon an unsuspecting society when this corrupt evil Fiat dollar system collapses as surely it will/must do.

We can speculate and theorize and review history all we want and even while listening to those few elders still around that experienced the crash and the dirty thirties depression we can not (I feel) totally grasp the enormity of what changes this perverse Fiat system collapse would bring about. From the cradle to the grave we have become so indoctrinated to accept debt as an integral part of life, that few question or rebel against it.

Well I must say in all honesty that my views have changed along with a few others here as to worrying about the result or hardship of a dramatic day of reckoning. Now I almost welcome it as surely as it will happen. As you say we must all "get on board" and ride the train and if it goes thru Hells Canyon along the way, so be it. Be aware, be prepared, and lets get on with it and hopefully the worlds system of finance will change for the better......

There is only hope for peaceful change in these respects, for God help the world if we must bear arms to take back the financial control of our lives.....Maybe we are witnessing this peaceful change right now thru the all encompassing war over Gold and all that it entails. If mankind cannot even control it's own financial system then what hope remains for the control of the political system?

How else can mankind hope to even begin to unravel the stranglehold that the Banker/Banksters have choked society with other than by holding and hoarding Gold and Silver, paying cash for what we posess and excluding as much Bank control over our lives as the times permit. Sure we need currency to function, but we are falling into the NWO plan by using Plastic and thinking we deserve all we see even if it means a loan from that friendly Bank. (hey a toaster or airmiles) Like I say there's nothing more pervasive than the Banks and human nature dictates complacency.

To 'Live Small' is to live happy & adds a little more freedom to ones' life.....IMHO....YGM.

"GO GATA"..............."Go Physical"

(06/02/2002; 16:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77283)
In the thread of my previous post.....
A Quote from Gold Wars..Ferdinand Lips...I don't yet have a copy, but a friend does and provided this excerpt.....YGM


"Based on 50 years of experience and study of the markets and the history of money, it is my conviction that the abandonment of the gold standard of the nineteenth century is the greatest tragedy of all time. It is an event that has led the world into almost 100 years of monetary no-man's land and could ultimately lead into total loss of freedom for mankind. Since then, most economists have blinders over their eyes, but whoever takes the time and work to study the decisive events in history will find that gold is the decisive fulcrum of the world economy and world destiny. The monetary standard is closely linked to the moral standard and, as such, determines the fate of humanity"

F Lips...
(06/02/2002; 16:49:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77284)
Plausible parallels point toward possibilities
A key item from Black Blade's 77279 article jumped out at me:

"Oil is Russia's chief export and oil export taxes are a big part of the national budget."

Throughout the many regimes of the world, the business of taxation to fund government operations make for a richly storied tale of history. There has always been an unholy standoff between countermeasure efforts at tax collection and tax avoidance, with shifts in social structures tipping the balance from time to time to variously favor the efforts of one side or the other.

For example, a shift from a largely self-sufficient ("self-employed") agrarian lifestyle to an employer/employee dominated money-culture brought about in the Industrial Revolution made it much easier for the tax collector to tap reliably into the currency stream with income taxes. Factories could not easily hide their doings, thus making for easy pickings.

Not to be outdone, independent-minded modern citizens have taken the opportunities of the instant electronic banking and Information Age to move deftly out of harms way from the heavy-handed tax man toward shelter in more favorable "residences" -- however digitally intangible they may be. Even under the auspices of open international trade and mass shipping Old Industry seeks to locate its new factories, tangible operations, to regions offering tax advantage.

Looking ahead with the mind of a frustrated tax man, a vision takes shape akin to the factories of yesteryear. A nation's natural resources cannot dodge. Oil in Texas and Gold in Nevada cannot be extracted in the New Republic of Banania where workers are willing to sweat for low pay (in dollar equivalent) and corporate taxes are lower.

No, oil and Gold is where you find it, and that's where the holes must be. Easy targets. Sitting ducks, actually. The tax man in this age of modern banking and open economies will have no difficulty getting his due, always claimed in the name of "the Greater Good for the great People of this great Nation." Mineral taxes, extraction taxes, special inventive licenses and fees, corporate taxes, and as status of the diminishing resource may become elevated to that of strategic national asset, production limits can be reasonably expected.

What? You can't believe in such specialized taxation treatment? Just talk to any smoker who pays cigarette taxes with each purchase, taxes that don't apply to the bread he buys at the same time. And production quotas? Just talk to any old Texas oilman.

Corresponding with a massive launch in the street price of physical Gold, it is all too easy to see how the net after-tax earnings of any given GroundGold DeepMine Corp (NYSE ticker: A.HOLE) could be left not significantly greater than any given Wal-Store Inc retailer, General Engines manufacturer, or MicroSmart Corp technology company.

If you invest in A.HOLE with the proper mindset as being a partial owner of this Gold mining operation, you'll know him well -- over daily lunches you'll smile and shake your tax man's hand even as he reaches in to lift your wallet. And if you invest in A.HOLE at the exclusion of any holdings in Gold, in the fullness of time you will see that it offers precisely none of the benefits of Gold ownership.

Boiling it all down, looking into the latest countermoves of the epic and eternal taxation standoff, with A.HOLE you are buying exposure. With Gold, you are buying security.

Plausible parallels? Let's see that again. "Oil is Russia's chief export and oil export taxes are a big part of the national budget."

Gold. Get you some... if it pleases you. --- Aristotle
Sierra Madre
(06/02/2002; 17:09:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77285)
Other quotes from "Gold Wars" by Ferdinand Lips...

On page 120, Mr. Lips quotes some crucial passages from Charles Mackay's classic. "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Money Mania - the Mississippi Scheme, 1719 and 1720.

"...People of every age and sex and condition of life speculated in the rise and fall of the Mississippi bonds.

1719: ".....The warnings of the Parliament, that too great a creation of paper money would, sooner or later, bring the country to bankruptcy were disregarded. The regent who knew nothing of finance, thought that a system which had produced such good effects could never be carried to excess."

(Sierra comments: and who were those idiots and scoundrels who were saying, three years ago in 1999, that the Dow would go to 36,000? I hope somebody has been keeping track of how those quacks and traitors to the public were deceiving the people just three years ago!)

"One year later, in 1720:

"....But the alarm once sounded, no art could make the people feel the slightest confidence in paper, which was not exchangeable for metal. M. Lambert, the president of the Parliament of Paris, told the regent to his face that he would rather have a hundred thousand livres in gold and silver than five million in the notes of his bank."

Gentle Knights and Ladies:


Fear begins to stalk the world. "No art could make the people feel the slightest confidence in paper, which was not exchangeable for metal." - Can you say, "Argentina"?

Yes, the alarm has been sounded. This is a whole new ball game. The previous game is over, although many don't realize that, yet.

I am no prophet or market forecaster, but I have a feeling that $400/oz may be the price before June is over. Not that it is important - gold is going to rip all expectations to shreds, but the market will take its own sweet time doing so.

It's going to be a most interesting week.

(06/02/2002; 17:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77286)
@Randy, All
Cavan Man and I noticed a change in the above, INO gold quote after Friday's NY close. Almost $2.00 higher. It is the nearby futures, forward contract month of July now, that INO quotes- But their Friday's quote would seem to have been for June, since it was May 31. Did a switchover affect the price we see? Or is there an Asian or Arab market(s), small or large, open on Saturday for futures and/or physical trading? TIA
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 17:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77287)
Gold Regains Its Shine As Safe Haven In Unstable Times,,5-313107,00.html

Dismissed as a barbarous relic of the past by a generation of young traders who have never witnessed a bull market in the precious metal, gold's reputation as a safe haven in times of crisis was openly scoffed at. Nobody wanted it. The stuff was seen as only good for wedding rings and flashy tooth fillings.

Suddenly, the world has been turned on its head. The price of gold has soared to well over $320 an ounce, with some producers predicting that it could break the $400 or even the $500 thresholds in the coming months. Companies that have been happy to fix the price of gold not yet mined, effectively putting a ceiling on prices, are dumping their hedging strategies as fast as they can to let the price run wild on the open market.

In addition, there is mounting concern that the much-vaunted US economic recovery is likely to be a false dawn. The dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable under the twin weight of the American foreign trade deficit and the newly emerged budget deficit.

Black Blade: It is a bit difficult to wipe out 9,000 years of history by mere words such as "barbarous relic". Traders of stocks and bonds are having an eye-opening experience these days as their faith in Keynesian economics is shaken to the core. Fundamentals are important � so much for the speculative barbaric claims of the "New Economy". Can you say: "the emperor wears no clothes"? I knew you could. Gold is insurance when things go bad.

(06/02/2002; 17:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77288)
Aristotle (06/02/02; 16:49:43MT - msg#: 77284)
You put a big nail in it.

I remember when Jimmah said that those were obscene profits & declared a "windfall" [confiscatory] tax.

Funny, I don't remember it coming back the other way when oil was $10 a barrell.

I have a newsflash for the American [so-called] press, it wasn't the American oil man that did it; the King of the House of Saud set the price.

At any rate, most of the rough necks, drillers, and tool pushers are "selling shoes in Minneapolis", rigs were sold by the pound, and the industry is no longer what it used to be [vibrant].......

BUT our government showed the American oil-man......... and we still depend on the Mid-East for our oil. Smart, hunh??
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 18:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77289)
Rising rand and gold locked in a wrestle for control of JSE

Johannesburg - A rising rand and bounding bullion prices are expected to wrestle for control of South Africa's stock market direction in the coming week, while an interest rate policy meeting will keep bank shares in limbo. During the week the rand raced to six-month highs against the dollar as Middle East violence, tension in Pakistan and India, and fears of attacks in the US drove jittery investors away from dollars and into the haven of gold. South Africa, the world's biggest gold producer, takes strength from any gains in bullion, still one of its main foreign exchange earners.

Black Blade: The USD should continue to weaken even as the Japanese devalue the Yen. The equities markets look sickly with extremely low trading volume. Corporate profits are not materializing. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The Middle East is likely to flare up in violence again. The prospect of a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India looks quite possible. The masses will continue to seek out "safe havens" such as Gold. The outlook for Gold is "VERY STRONGLY BULLISH" (in spite of what a certain consistently wrong analyst claims).

(06/02/2002; 18:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77290)
Belgian, on the toils and choices of "others"
You'll notice that I included the word "sweat" out of respect for your latest offering.

I've got a quick question for you regarding these many places "outside the consuming West" (Euroland included) where the dollar is used as you eloquently say "as the ultimate store of tiny small surpluses out of all this billion gallons of new producer's sweat."

These places have their own national currency, yet due perhaps largely to the inflationary failings of their local monetary system, the locals have sought shelter through the saving of dollars instead of saving local currency, much to the singular benefit of us dollar creators. As you know, the past two decades of Gold's "nonperformance" when priced in U.S. dollars has propped up this international complacency, even *desire*, to hold dollars instead of Gold for the better "yield" on the savings they've stuffed under their mattresses.

A rising dollar-denominated price for Gold certainly won't do anything to make these locals have more confidence in savings denominated with their local currency. They will still want to have a form of savings that are safely "outside" of the local monetary system. Ignoring for now the comparative sizes and particular timing of the movements in any given currency, the price of Gold in ALL currencies should ultimately be seen as rising -- dollars, euros, pesos, you name it. What it will do is alter their choice away from significant savings in dollars or any other currencies for that matter. Gold should become the primary beneficiary of this mental realignment in attitude toward savings.

Here's my question, and I'm hoping you can draw upon the FOA school of thought as you conjure up an answer if possible. As an American, it is very natural for me to use the dollar as the denominator of my monetary thinking. On my Personal Gold Standard, which is what I call my standard of savings built upon Gold (see Aristotle (5/13/02; msg#: 75556),) I know the wealth of my savings is real, but it does not participate directly in my monetary thinking; that is to say, my mental associations of relative values between all things as expressed through measurement with a thing called "price" in which, for me as an American, the Dollar is my arbiter -- my money.

If at any time I want to assess the purchasing power of my savings, I look at the going market price (in dollars) for each ounce of my Gold holdings, and then with my daily and ongoing exposure to the dollar price of SUVs, lawnmowers, gasoline, bread, garden supplies, beer, etc, I can come to a reasonable understanding of my savings/wealth as measured through this notional concept of money (being units of dollars in my American mind.)

QUESTION: In the minds of the millions in distant lands who have sweated billions of gallons over the past two decades to put themselves (temporarily) on a Personal *Dollar* Standard of savings, is their monetary thoughts and mental value associations still conducted in terms of their own national currency such that they ultimately understand the value of their savings through the local money/price associations as a translator?

If so, then it should be easy for many of us to see how the dollar has risen to the precious status of an actual "commodity" in these placed rather than merely another notional monetary unit. It should also help us to understand how natural it is for people to set aside a precious commodity to function as secure savings outside of their monetary system.

Gold. More and more of us gettin' us some. --- Aristotle
(06/02/2002; 19:19:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77291)
Aristotle and Belgian

I have read the posts of both of you. I sense the frustration of Belgian and agree with him. It is a passionately stated thought, but, in all due respect Mr. Aristotle, I don't see how your reply relates to his concerns. If you have the time, and the inclination to explain the relationship, in simple terms, I would be most grateful, because I believe it is important to further my knowledge by understanding.

Cavan Man
(06/02/2002; 19:26:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77292)
Russia's Oil sold to US
If SA loses market share and perhaps this is a "we call your bluff"; then, I would expect a trend to settlement in Euro to begin to gather momentum.
(06/02/2002; 19:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77293)
Siege Engine
Gold Above $300.00The archers have long left the castle under the cover of darkness. One by one they past through the slit in the main entrance on their way to the appointed spot to await the charge of those upon horse. They carry with them impliments of destruction and will conceal themselves untill it is time to deliver the death blow. In the courtyard the Knights assemble on horseback with jars of oil to bathe the trebuchet to set it alight. The tourches are put out and the gate opens and the riders slowly exit. They can see their foe across the field and that the goldbugs are unaware of what is to come. The moon is cresent and clouds help shield them from detection as the distance of the field shortens.They see the trebuchet as clear as day for the fire that helps the goldbugs also gives the riders a beacon. The horses are quiet and the ground soft to muffle both weight of horse and rider. They are now more than half way and spread out in a line as the pace quickens. The horsemen now can see a stone ready to be thrown. They come to full gallop. Startled by the sound of thundering hoofs the goldbugs sound alarm and those asleep awake to being attacked. They run to pick up their long pikes to repell the invaders and see the charge come upon them. Swordsmen fall in behind to strenghten the line. They raise their pikes to show the defense is strong but the horsemen press on and all at once a short distance away come become two lines. There is no time to move the pikes and the first horses with breast shields collide. Sounds of men in battle ensue. Horses and man are put to ground yet two penetrate the defense and throw the deadly poison upon the machine.
Those in hiding have watch the breach and let lose the flaming arrows to the target. At the same time the last stone is set to flight. One crashing against the citadle and the other engulfing its prey in fire.

Upon the wall the Lord of the castle smiles and retires to his room.
(06/02/2002; 19:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77294)
@GoldnSilver2002: Explain, please
Just got back from the Austin, TX, area, where 30,000 Harley owners converged for the weekend, and read GoldnSilver2002's Saturday post about "Looking into the future." For newcomers to gold investing such as myself, please explain what you think is going to happen on Monday (you said "Monday should get real interesting") and what you predict for June (you said "Its June boys watch out.").
Cavan Man
(06/02/2002; 19:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77295)
Bloomberg "Stories"
I posted a link earlier that was favorable to the Euro and very negative on the dollar outlook. Go to the site now and see a 180. Typical stockbrokers; say one thing today and then reverse yourself tomorrow. In that way, you're never wrong. Well, observe the big picture with regards to gold. We are definitely in a bull market that isn't going the other way anytime soon. Believe it! Stay the course and go long.
(06/02/2002; 20:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77296)
Interstate, unless I'm mistaken, when Sir Belgian replies then we'll both know
I'm trying to interpret this, not to be picky but to clarify. You said, "I don't see how your reply relates to his concerns."

To be sure, I wasn't "replying" per se to Belgian's post, nor was I trying to address his "concerns." As I see it, his post stands as an impressive monument upon high ground. It warrants no attempt at alteration from the likes of me. In fact, I opened my post to him with a compliment, and then when promply onward to build a common base of understanding from which I could inquire whether he might be inclined to support my suspicion. That being a conception that dollar bills in the sweaty hands of the world's international toilers have become not part of their mental "monetary language" (the notional sense of Money proper) but rather they've become part of their "commodity associations" and barter.

The key point, which I left unsaid and for the deduction of any individual reader, was that in this overseas capacity -- as a savings commodity -- the dollar might suddenly fail and be dishoarded/repatriated as quickly as confidence can be lost on the merits of any given printed object. As dollar-denominated Gold price perceptions can no longer be held in check through a preponderance of derivative substitutes, my suggestion is that owners of sweaty "Personal Dollar Standards" will en masse seek to shift them into sweaty "Personal Gold Standards." A shifting of one "commodity" for another, yet each of them existing locally although outside of the local monetary system. Although a dollar may represent money to us in the land of its creation, to them it may represent property -- as good as Gold for only so long as the Gold price doesn't rise and give up the game!

Granted, it's perhaps a subtle and obscure business, but that's why I posed it to Belgian, singling him out so as not to distract the other participants from their comings and goings. Were FOA making his mind available, you can be sure I'd have sought him out to hang some flesh on my outline.

So, Interstate, I think there may not be a "relationship" between the "social" point of Belgian's morning comments and the "technical/philosophical" point of my own. The players in the tale, however, remain a point in common, and ultimately its all an analysis of the same game. And an important one at that.

Gold. Get you some. -- Aristotle
(06/02/2002; 20:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77297)
Loss of Confidence...Loss of Faith...The CIA/FBI Meltdown
Taking a lottery for George Tenet's Last Minute as CIA DirectorOpening time is 9:01 AM tomorrow morning.

Imagine the conversation between GWB and Mr. Tenet early tomorrow AM.

Uhmmm...Mr. Tenet...Exactly WHEN did you learn that these hijackers attended the Al Qaeda "Summit" in Malaysia?

And did you just FORGET about them when they came back to the US? And about the flight training you knew they were taking...when did your WIRE TAPS reveal their intended targets?...Oh? ....

You didn't issue wiretaps?...I[GWB slowly drinking from a glass of water] you and your crack analysts...what exactly DID you guess they were trying to do with that turbo-jet flight training...the training that included NO LANDING provisions? ...Cat got your tongue?

So...Mr. Tenet, would you please explain exactly HOW you tracked these known terrorists in the US?

You DID have their driver's license numbers and credit card and phone info�right?� You know...the guys that you had already linked to the attack on the USS Cole?

Let's see...did you pick up the phone and tell the FBI?...Nope?...I see.... Well maybe you had a "Pressing engagement" ...or something like that.

Well...Mr. Tenet you know these same guys...the guys that you SAY you "LOST" when you let them back into the US...weren't they the SAME ONES gunning for ME and my WIFE at the White House?

Only they couldn't FIND the White House with their "Bomb" so they slaughtered hundreds over at the pentagon....Do you remember THAT part?

Funny don't you think....Mr. Tenet�they didn't choose the CIA HQ in Vienna? After ALL, Mr. Tenet, the CIA in Vienna IS on the way from where they were coming....isn't it? And BOY you just CAN�T MISS that building�can you. And we all know how they HATE the CIA.

Perhaps you can explain WHY these terrorists chose to pass up the juicy CIA HQ, in-plain-view target? �By the way, were YOU THERE on 9/11? WERE?� My, my, my...what a COINCIDENCE!

Now...about a few tiny little, silly questions I will have to answer this morning...Would you, Mr. Tenet, please explain how I can answer the logical questions:

"Mr. President, did YOU know about these terrorists by name too? ..for openers, and�

"How could you just let these known terrorists back into the US AFTER you knew they attended an Al Qaeda Summit?"

Mr. Tenet...Mr. Tenet?�Perhaps a glass of water...

Carl H
(06/02/2002; 21:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77298)
Morgan Stanely Rocket Scientists
I have seen mention here that Morgan Stanley is part of the cabal. They have been our broker for a while (by merger, not by choice). I just received 8 other individuals statements sent with their names to my address. If the same rocket scientist programmers that handle their address database handle their derivatives programs -- then I would say these guys are an accident waiting to happen.

BTW, I am transferring my accounts to a small local brokerage that actually seems to want my business.

(06/02/2002; 22:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77299)
OPEC Oil Income Seen Threatened, Changes Proposed Oil Income in Danger
June 02, 2002 11:29 AM ET By Tom Ashby
.........Since then [1960], the oil price debate has focused on production quotas to set prices.
But as foreign operators return to the cartel's oilfields, the key to government revenues will increasingly become the price companies pay for access to the oil, which Mommer seeks to defend.
He says OPEC, popularly known as a cartel of oil exporters, is better defined as an association of landlords, extracting rent in return for access to their territory.
"OPEC is able to restrict the flow of investment, which determines the long-term level of production," Mommer writes. "The power of OPEC is deeply rooted in its 'underground'. Quotas are only a kind of fine-tuning."
By increasing the cost of production through royalties, Mommer believes OPEC can set a "fiscal floor" to oil prices worldwide including a good margin for budgetary needs in exporting nations.
While output management has succeeded in raising prices over the past three years, Mommer says maintaining those prices will depend on staunch defense of sovereign property rights in oil exporting countries as foreign capital link for more ~~~~~~~~~ Black Blade, is their concern over prices overlooking serious global supply problems, increased global demand, commodity "price" explosions, etc.?
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 22:20:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77300)
Gold guru sees price above $1,000 ounce¤t_row=3☆t_row=3#_rows=1

VANCOUVER -- Veteran gold bug Jim Dines says he was once called "a moron" by U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan for predicting that gold would break out above $35 (U.S.) an ounce -- now he's calling for $1,000. "He has never come back and apologized," said the San Francisco newsletter writer as he recalled a conversation that occurred in 1964 while he and Mr. Greenspan were watching Barry Goldwater campaign for the U.S. presidency. "Killings and fortunes are going to be made on this one."

Black Blade: Alan Greenspan has calmed down with age, now he just says "irrational exuberance".
Around The Corner
(06/02/2002; 22:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77301)
RE: Loss of Confidence...Loss of Faith...The CIA/FBI Meltdown
The question I'd like to see asked is:

"Mr. Tenent, were you instructed by either George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush or Dick Cheney to "back off" investigating al-qaida, and if so, when was this instruction given to you?"

It's blatantly obvious that early on, the Bush administration wanted to befriend the Taliban and do business with them, which was a 180 degree turn from the Clinton policy.

Until just after September 11, 2001, the Bush's were business partners with the Saudi based bin Ladens. Amazing, no? Further, George W. Bush gave the Taliban $43 million of our tax dollars in August of 2001.

You see, there was this issue of building an oil/gas pipeline through Afghanistan, worth trillions of dollars to his campaign contributors and, coincendently, once built, it would help Bush's #1 campaign contributor, "Kenny Boy", out of a $3 billion dollar jam in India.

Maybe this is why Cheney refuses to release the notes of the U.S. Energy Policy meetings that "Kenny Boy" (and others situated to benefit from the Afghanistan pipeline) attended.

Obvious dots?

If this was their plan, then all I have to say gold and silver, and buy as much as you can, and be quick about it. The dog WILL be wagged.
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 22:49:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77302)
Re: mikal

The point for Middle Eastern and Venezuelan OPEC producers is to make their oil last at as best price as possible. ME producers have no other natural resource to exploit. The Saudi producers for example can produce oil at about $2.00/bbl and the Russians can produce oil at about $8.00/bbl for example (before transportation, refining and other costs). Recently the US through President Bush during his visit with Putin and earlier contacts with through the administartion, plans were set in motion to acquire a larger share of Russian oil. However, this oil is of lower grade and more expensive to extract.

Over the last several years the average annual per capita income of Saudi citizens has fallen from about $27,000 to roughly $8,000. The Saudis also payoff the Wahabbi clerics and other Islamists in order to keep a lid on possible upheaval in the Kingdom. Now that the oil income has fallen there exists the real possibility for political unrest. Add to all this the rapid population growth in the region and the lack of government jobs along with rising costs of social programs.

The Saudis know that they have a finite resource and it has been suspected that the large ME oil fields are near their "Hubbert Peak" of oil production. There is an Arab saying: "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a car, I ride a jet, and my son will ride a camel".

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/02/2002; 23:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77303)
Coming tidal wave of gold demand

It's a scenario that's taken time to unfold but is now becoming crystal clear. At its center are gold and the dollar. The scenario is this: The dollar, the once mighty symbol of American might and global dominance, is no longer perceived internationally as being bulletproof � due largely to America's continuing role as the world's leading debtor nation � and, as a result, dollar-holders are beginning to quietly exchange their positions for gold.

For years, due to an artificially low price of gold, there's been a contraction in exploration and new gold mine development. Most mines are geared only to make nominal profits and get by. Significant production from new mines wouldn't realistically take hold for another five, maybe 10 years. So a sudden monster gold move would be compounded by unusually feeble production. Climbing gold prices would then be a lot like the driver of a speeding car � that hits a concrete wall.

Most investments are haunted by nagging questions. Gold no longer is. Not only are the fundamentals solidly in place, not only does demand already exceed supply by some 40 million ounces, and not only is there a 14 percent profit potential virtually built in and a Dow/gold ratio that's still way overbalanced at 27 to 1 (in 1980, that ratio was "normal" at 1 to 1), but with peaking world tensions, rising oil prices and a weakening dollar, do you really feel comfortable not maintaining a 20 to 30 percent gold position in your portfolio? Better think about it.

Black Blade: Interesting article. I saw David Tice of Prudent Bear Fund on a finance show today. He stated his case for a continuing bear market and said that he was still bullish on Gold. The other guests were not as upbeat about Gold, however, the usual statements like "barbarous relic" and "sterile asset" were not mentioned and they seemed anxious to move on to another topic.

(06/02/2002; 23:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77304)
JUne should be a big month for gold and the cabal
I guess in my attempt to keep it brief i became confusing.Jimbo with so many world events favorable to gold,i think it is highly likely this is the month the gold shorts blink.At gold's current rate of growth June should be the month gold cracks the 354 to 360 marker,at which point many belive gold will be set free to climb upwards and cracks in the financial sytem become exposed as a result.Many far wiser than me have written about the gold derivatives mess,June could be the month the fireworks go off so to speak.As for monday its the first day of june and one has to believe the powers that be will try and take a firm stand at 325.As a result monday could be a very trying
day for the old boys of the cabal as they frantically try and bring the p.o.g down.So i said to them "watch out boys " JUne is bound to have some surprises,or should i say "the expected unexpected".June being a hot month,it should start to bring matters as they pertain to gold,to a nice boil.Should be interesting to watch,as Black Blade often says "interesting times" and i think June will be a very interesting month.
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 00:12:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77305)
Mid-East Oil Producers Oppose Production HikeΝm=17

TEHRAN -- Middle East oil-producers renewed calls for OPEC not to yield to western pressure in increasing global oil supplies in the third quarter of 2002 this week. The outgoing Secretary General of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Ali Rodriguez on 30 May 2002 kicked off in Qatar a Persian Gulf tour that will lead him also to Iran, to evaluate the market ahead of the organizations meeting on 26 June 2002 in Vienna.

Iran, OPEC's second largest producer after Saudi Arabia, on 28 May 2002 said that there was no need to increase production. Evaluating the situation in the market, the Oil Ministry sees it as being stable, Iranian Deputy Oil Minister, Mohammad Mir-Moezi said. Qatari Energy Minister, Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiya shared the same view. There is no reason for Qatar to increase production. The $25 per barrel price is reasonable for consumers and producers, Mr. Al-Attiya said. Most of the OPEC members have spoken so far in favor of maintaining in the third quarter 2002 the current 21.7 million bpd output ceiling set for 10 of the producers. The eleventh member, Iraq, is not bound by the quota system because of UN sanctions and produces around 3 million bpd.

Black Blade: This was expected as the trading range of $22.00/bbl to $28.00/bbl is being maintained.

(06/03/2002; 00:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77306)
Sir Interstate, upon taking a second look, maybe this would have cleared things up
The first line of my 77290 post to Sir Belgian was "You'll notice that I included the word "sweat" out of respect for your latest offering."

That post grew in the process of writing it beyond my initial purpose, which was to be just that one-liner tip o' the hat through calling his attention to my use of the world "sweat" in my previous post on taxation.

I had admired his post earlier that day, and that's why I chose my words thusly in my 77284 post about taxation:

"A nation's natural resources cannot dodge. Oil in Texas and Gold in Nevada cannot be extracted in the New Republic of Banania where workers are willing to sweat for low pay (in dollar equivalent) and corporate taxes are lower."

In hindsight, seeing how this distinction was likely lost completely because my subsequent post grew to ALSO include this term in respectful reference to the diligently toiling masses, that latter post to Belgian would have began on a clearer note for your interpretation if I had revised the first line to read as follows:

"You'll notice ***in my #77284 taxation commentary*** that I included the word "sweat" out of respect for your latest offering."

Oh well. I'll try harder next time to eliminate these margins for misinterpretation.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 00:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77307)
Weaning Off the Barrel

For years, the economy has been addicted to high oil prices. But, as Ben Aris reports, by keeping the taps open, President Vladimir Putin has managed to break Russia's crude habit.

"Putin came to the job of president convinced that the 1998 financial crisis was caused by Russia's overdependence on oil. His first priority since then has been to break this addiction by boosting production so that Russia Inc. is profitable at any price," says Chris Weafer, head of research at Troika Dialog. "And he has already succeeded."

Weafer believes Russia has kicked its habit of coasting along and relying on oil exports to bail out the economy while reforms are ignored. Rising oil production means Russia has already passed the crucial breakeven point. From now on, oil money is only going to make reform easier.

The key to understanding Russia's attitude to oil, Weafer says, is to realize that the budget needs to generate about $20 billion per year from oil-related taxes to balance. President Vladimir Putin's strategy has been to encourage oil companies to increase production as fast as possible: the more they export, the lower the price of oil can be to earn the money the government needs.

The oil production high is temporary as Russian companies are working at full capacity, while Saudi Arabia is at two-thirds capacity, but the export record is permanent, and Russia is unlikely to give up territory gained to OPEC, which has been badgering Russia to cut production to boost sagging prices.

Energy was high on the agenda during U.S. President George W. Bush's visit here last month. U.S. Undersecretary of Energy Robert Card had said in an interview with Kommersant at the end of April, "The U.S. is seeking increased supplies from Russia. If Russia offers a reasonable price, we will buy oil in Russia."

Black Blade: It still is doubtful that Russia can fill the void if OPEC oil is cut significantly. It is also doubtful that Russia can produce oil cheaper. Still, it is interesting to see that the old Russian propaganda machine is still at work. Though an interesting article.

(06/03/2002; 00:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77308)
Silver, Gold Standard
The U.S. should go on the Silver standard as should Mexico
Central and South America and England since thier investments and trade are tied to the U.S..Europe and surrounding countries
and countries that predominately trade with Europe should go on the Gold Standard.The Ratio of gold to Silver will need to be fixed in order to have stable trade relations with no devaluations ,thereby removing devaluations as a trade weapon.
This will lead to confidence in government, savings increases
less dependence on debt and wealth by increases in trade and lower taxes.Before this can happin a final devaluation of all paper currency needs to take place.The price of gold and silver need to be high enough to stimulate trade.The forces of bankers
will need to be silenced ,they will try to keep the price of gold much lower than is needed so as they might get a paper currency advantage.We will need politicians with the courage of Jackson and the intellect of Hamilton to accomplish this.
Divine intervention may be needed,but it happened before when the founding fathers were all living at the same time .If America is deserving it may happin again.
(06/03/2002; 01:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77309)
Contrarian Indicator for Silver

Contrarians often wisely look for "WHAT ISN'T HAPPENING" in a given investment arena to give them clues for the future. On Friday, silver broke solidly through the five dollar level and yet there has been almost no mention of it on one of the most popular goldbug sites on the internet. (this site) What gives? Was I the only one that noticed that the percentage gains in silver last week more than doubled those of gold?

Given the above, contrarian analysis says that it is still very, very early in the new bull market for silver and the largest percentage gains are here. IMHO
Artie Farkle
(06/03/2002; 02:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77310)

In a stunning U-turn for the Bush administration, the United States has sent a climate report to the United Nations detailing "specific and far-reaching effects" that it says "global warming will inflict" on the American environment.

Comment: Could George W. be laying the ground work to deal with a coming fuel shortage? Maybe a higher fuel tax?
How might this affect gold and mining?
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 02:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77311)
Re: Artie

Better than that (taxes). Currently there is a big face off between the BLM and EPA over Coalbed Methane drilling in the Rocky Mountain Front, and various locations in the southeast. Coalbed Methane (natural gas) may be the next largest source of cheap energy that could produce twice as much methane as conventional natural gas drilling. This face off threatens to postpone the supply of natural gas to power generating facilities that depend on clean burning natural gas. After the defeat that the Bush administration suffered over the proposed drilling at ANWR, they really don't need to suffer another setback if they lose the fight on the Rocky Mountain Front. What better way to promote the drilling for Coalbed Methane than to sell it as the solution for appeasing those who fear "Global Warming" and override the public "environmentalist" fears. This kills two birds with one stone. A real smart move on Bush and Cheney's part that secures a vital clean resource. Cheers!

- Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 03:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77312)
@ Ari and Timber....
Allow me trying to re-write my understandings of that US$ reserve currency that has so many different mental associations in one :
The US$ as currency for Americans and that same dollar as currency for the many different *other* (non Americans)holders/users (workers and wealthy). This US$ as a "reserve" had (!) a glorious past. But soon, all the different reasons for holding or using that unique reserve currency by Americans and non Americans is to change. This change will be dramatic for the simple reason that the US$ reached its fullest status of "personal" and "individual" standard, with all its different nuances. The dishoarding of that US$ money/saving/commodity, will evolve at different speeds and volumes in time.

The most recent example of Cuba's public announcement (encouragement) to accept the euro as valuable another evidence of the ongoing proces.
Cuban's monetary thoughts (mental value associations) will still be conducted in terms of their local currency, there to stay for an unknown future. But something will/has changed for them. That almighty, unchallenged, US$ has been challenged. Now they enter a process of evaluating this challenge between $ and �. This same process was/is/will be initiated in so many different parts of the world, where a certain dollar-fatique or even dollar hostility is growing.

TG deep insights on the dollar/euro-challenge are alive and kicking.

Now, can we and many others switch from one US$ standard to a double $/� standard ? Unpractical, isn't it ?
All those different processes of $/� evaluations will/must result in final choices. Hard choices with less and less compromises for billions of workers, savers and wealthy few. Now we come to understand what TG means by currency "management". And it is eactly within the secrets of those two completely different managements ($/�) that GOLD makes the black and white difference.

Hoarding and/or dis-hoarding of dollars for euro is not exclusively a matter of commodity or money matters in this very early stages of CHANGE (TRANSITION)! It will differ as soon as the GOLD factor is fully and openly incorporated into the new currency concept.

And yes indeed good we have it : What has GOLD to do with the future dollar and euro ? Fidel Castro doen not suspect that the euro currency has a liaison with Gold.
He even doesn't care. But the euro architects and US dollar printers, do ! Shall we, the workers/savers/wealthy, still sing...working for the yankee dollar, oh-tic-o-tic...oh-tic-o-tac, much longer ?

The point of our exchange of vieuws is clearing out how Americans and non Americans see/feel about that old US$, growing older and older. In these vieuws we do have to turn around the GOLD axis, bad for the dollar, good for the euro.
So we both, Americans and other can profit from what is to come. That makes it such a nice and interesting place to be here at CPM. Thanks folks !

Another perceptual difference between the aging US$ and the rising euro are their "social" connoctations (true or false-good or bad). But the euro offer to joiners is horizontal and the dollar has always been imposed and has that dominant oppressing character. A very important argument for the many who will have to make their choices gradually after the evaluation of both (reserve) currencies. Conquering the world (sorry, a big part of it) without one shot ?
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 04:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77313)
The Gold Bugs Are Lighting Up
Prices may keep rising as inflation lurks and the dollar swoons


With regional conflicts, deficit spending, a declining dollar, and hints of inflation on the rise, investors are rediscovering an old standby--gold. From a low of $257 an ounce just over a year ago, gold has jumped 27%, to $327 an ounce, as of May 29--a level not seen since the fall of 1997. For gold bugs, the sharp climb is vindication. During much of the '90s, the dollar and Treasury securities posted superior returns, as central banks worldwide dumped the mineral in exchange for those assets. Gold fans saw only short-lived spikes. In 1999, investors bid gold above $325 on the prospect of more orderly selling by central bankers, but that price proved unsustainable as the dollar continued to rise.

Black Blade: Positive article on Gold from "Business Week". Everyone wants to get on the bandwagon now.

(06/03/2002; 04:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77314)
Russian, Middle East and all other oil and gas.....
They will always demand the highest possible price for their resource and payment with a currency that is most trusted, by this producers (!!!) for its future purchasing power, for them ! Most resources (oil/gas) are to be found in the poorest regions on this globe ! A conflict of interest between state owned resources and private interests has been and still is exploited at the dollar's advantage. Euroland in particular has been profitting from this for quite some time now. Euroland has the desire to change this, so they can take over the orchestrating stick.

The Russia / German / US interactions on oil and gas are very crucial. It is a major element in the dollar/euro (gold) realignment. An interwoven web, constantly altering whilst evolving.

The US wants the "cheap" oil and Euroland (Germany) wants Russia (for trade) and the Balkan, *through* the oil and gas agreements (old dreams never dy)! Hughe Big difference.
The US is NOT interested in an economical, to become, strong Russia. Euroland has to play/balance the private and state conflicts inside Russia. In analogy with the feodal M.E. Arabian oil regime(s). The elite's powers who were dollar-addicted, will slowly be shifted to the people's power in the hope they will chose the gold-euro as their future ally. Euroland playing the social aspect of prosperity with the currency-instrument.

Aristotle, it is against this growing background that you have to judge on the future purchasing power of your american dollar. But, you already made your choice and opted for the safest alternative : THE MOST UNIVERSAL PHYSICAL IN POSSESSION ! I did (still doing) the same .
Not to replace that, old and dying, personal dollar (reserve) standard, but for the GOLD element into the whole euro-concept of GROWTH and STABILITY.

(06/03/2002; 05:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77316)
about Russian oil
The reason that the push is on to get Russian oil on a steady trade operation into the US is so that the US can attack the Arab countries without being completely shut down.
The fight is between rounds right now, but the two sides (Isreal and the Arab countries) will soon come out swinging again. The Bushies want all that Middle East oil under their control, the Isrealis want all of Isreal. The Arabs know that they are at war right now and are fighting the best way they can. They are joining together and they are fighting in the economic arena. The great chess game of global dominance goes on. Or another analogy that has been on my mind lately is that the US (and their golbal elitist buddies) are in a game of hearts and they have decided they have a strong enough hand to "shoot the moon". There are a few high cards still unaccounted for though. My opinion is that now that the world sees what is planned, they will covertly sabotage those plans. American arrogance is in full bloom, and it aint pretty to the world audience.
(06/03/2002; 05:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77317)
Hipplewhite Great Post!
A lot of accurate insights in a short post, congrats.
(06/03/2002; 05:40:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77318)
Sorry about the mistake on your name.
(06/03/2002; 06:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77319)
@ Hipplebeck
Sir, do you think that the Russians will let the US get away with their conquest of ME cheap oil ? Do you think that Russia will accept that the US shall pump ME oil at the dollar's dictated price and value ? Than you (or the US) did not get the full meaning of the 9/11 message .
Warfare has taken another dimension : TERROR ! The Russia/Iranian ties are there for power balance. An all out US attack on the oil-fields with temporary rising POO and an euro-manoeuver to push the dollar under water (plus SM-crash), comes at a very difficult moment for the US !
How can you explain the US being confident of shooting to the moon.

The US conquest of ME-(Iranian) oil could be a tactic to avoid future oil for euro. Why should Russia be at the US's (oil) service ? Do you really think that all mini-nukes are safely locked up only to deter ? Don't forget the complicating Chechnya factor in the (islamic) equations.

Not that simple...isn't it Sir ?

Timbervision should read Interstate (sorry for confusion).
(06/03/2002; 06:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77320)
@Hipplebeck...The Oil Cards
Whipping Up Support for an Iraq War is a Bit tougher than ExpectedEspecially after the CIA's and FBI's stupendous terrorist bungling has raised questions that perhaps the last two Admins WANTED 9/11 [Or something like it] to happen.

"It's about oil" is a very good default answer to any current foreign policy question.

For thinking people, the really important answer to the oil question is gold.

Let's hope that the "Queen" falls on the appropriate chump.
Golden Bear
(06/03/2002; 07:08:36 MDT - Msg ID: 77321)
sector (msg#: 77320)
It went further than that: On Fox News the other night, an FBI field agent was interviewed who said he had mounting evidence of a planned strike, and was told to stop investigating by his superiors - they DIDN'T want to know about it...

Also, the Naval Agent Mike Vreeland who wrote down on a piece of paper and handed it to prison officials in Canada 1 MONTH before the attacks, that the WTC and pentagon were targets. He tried to notify US Officials, and again, they didn't want to know! (

Why destroy the perfect excuse to invade Afghanistan and control the future route of Caspian Oil shipment to the US?

By the way, Mr Karzai, the Afghan leader, is a UNOCAL official...
(06/03/2002; 07:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77322)
Aristotle and Belgian

May I begin with an apology for intruding in your exchange? I have great respect for your wisdom in the world of economics and I was quite interested in your ideas yesterday. This being a forum, I thought that one could add to a post, ask for clarification or even challenge it. I don't just come in and go. I am an avid reader here and post when I feel I have something of value to say or if I need clarification. My expertise in economics is non-existent, although, I am learning from the knowledge shared by the generousity of the posters here. I began my interest and collection of gold in the early '80s, but it was the result of gut feelings only. Now, I want to learn the machinations of the financial process.

I appreciate the time and thought you put into the clarifications for me. It was of great help and understanding. I shall continue to expand my
knowledge by reading here. I read a lot of books, so I am getting an historical perspective, but I want to know the significance of what is happening NOW. Thank you for aiding me in my quest.

(06/03/2002; 07:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77323)
Thanks, GoldnSilver2002
That's what I thought you meant, but just wanted to be sure I understood. Unfortunately, I find myself getting very paranoid these days over gold's performance. (Perhaps it's a collection of negative reactions I accumulated during the fiasco, when I lost money.) Last week, for example, when the POG was going up, several of my gold stocks went down (most notably, GFI). Then, at times when I least expect it, the same stocks soar. All this to say, I find it almost impossible to predict with any accuracy what gold investments will do day-to-day. One more question, please: why, when gold hits 354-360, will the "old boys of the cabal" possibly lose control, allowing gold to soar?
(06/03/2002; 08:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77324)
Charts, Data, Interpretation.
By studying the historical patterns of gold spikes, I have noticed almost a semi-parabolic trend immediately before a rapid increase in the POG. By rapid, I mean over the course of lets say two weeks to one month to travel in the range of 40% higher than it's current level. I am no trained individual in these matters, more of a speculator than anything, but if you take a close look at all of the moderate to large spikes in your historical gold charts, you should be able to observe what I am speaking of. Perhaps this is a known pattern, and I am just regurgitating known facts, but I haven't been made aware of these facts other than my own observation.

The POG over the course of the last six to eight months would indicate that we are on the doorstep of a major POG increase!

RobotGuy, - - - Often wrong, but always willing to share!
Gandalf the White
(06/03/2002; 09:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77325)
Looks like the action is in NY again today !!
What will happen after HIGH NOON (NY time) today will tell the story of this WEEK. Like BB says, "Interesting Times"!
Around The Corner
(06/03/2002; 09:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77326)
Re: Golden Bear (msg#: 77321)
SNIP: Over the ensuing months and throughout 2001, the FBI, CIA, and other U.S. intelligence agencies became increasingly aware that individuals known or suspected to be linked with bin Laden or other terrorists groups, had been slipping into the country. They also knew that suspected terrorists on the FBI's "watch list" were receiving flight training. And they knew that men on their "watch list" were holding late night meetings that were attended by other men who were being watched, and many of these men then attended yet other meetings at different locations with yet other men on the FBI's "watch list" as well as with men who would later carry out the 9/11 attacks.

In fact, a dozen different individuals that the FBI maintains on a "watch list" and who were under some form of surveillance, shared the same U.S. addressees and were in fact living with several of the 9/11 hijackers.

For example, eight of those on the FBI's watch list lived at the same address as two of the 9/11 hijackers: Hamza Alghamdi and Ahmed Alghamdi. All ten men shared a dormitory at Flight Safety International--a flight school in Vero Beach--and were training to be pilots. Hamza and Ahmed were on the jet that hit the south Tower of the World Trade Center.

Yet another certified pilot on the FBI's watch list shared an address in Daytona Beach with Waleed Alshehri, a hijacker on the flight that struck the north Tower of the World Trade Center. Also at that address: Saeed Alghamdi, a hijacker on the flight that crashed in Pennsylvania.

Waleed Alshehri and his brother Wail Alshehri, also shared yet another address with a woman living in Hollywood, Florida, who was also on the "watch list." And, she shared their surname: Alshehri.

A Coral Springs man who was also on the FBI's watch list shared the same address as Marwan Al-Shehhi and Mohamed Atta. Al-Shehhi and Atta piloted the commercial jets that struck the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center.

The FBI was not only aware that Mohamed Atta was in the U.S. and receiving flight training, but that he been implicated in previous terrorist attacks, and had met with a senior Iraqi intelligence officer. In fact, by law, Atta and his "cousin" Marwan, should have never been granted visas or allowed into the country; yet in the months prior to 9/11 they were allowed to continue their activities unhindered.

They were not alone. Several of the other hijackers had also been granted visas and allowed into this country in the weeks and months before 9/11 although they were known to be veterans of previous terrorist attacks. Salem Alhamzi and Khalid Al-Midhar were on a special terrorist-watch list given to Border Patrol and I.N.S. agents on August 21, 2001.

There were excellent reasons for keeping an eye on Khalid Al-Midhar and to prevent him from entering the country. The year before he had been videotaped meeting with one of the suspects in the Oct. 12, 2000 terrorist attack of the USS Cole. Yet, Khalid Al-Midhar had no difficulty entering the United States. Although the I.N.S. and Border Patrol had been alerted, Khalid Al-Midhar, a man known to have been associating with known terrorists, legally entered the United States on a business visa.

Salem Alhamzi also waltzed right in and did so in a "legal" manner. He had a business visa.

Despite the fact that Alhamzi and Al-Midhar were considered dangerous, they were allowed free entry into the U.S., and immediately set up housekeeping together at the Marriott Hotel in New York, which was listed as their official residence. Three weeks later, on September 11, Khalid Al-Midha and Salem Alhamzi would hijack American Airlines flight 77 and then crash it into the Pentagon.

The FBI, CIA, and Bush administration, not only had advanced and detailed information and then did nothing to prevent the 9/11 assault and murder of 3000 Americans, they tried to cover it up and then lied about it. END SNIP

I realize the author of the above has taken a slew of individual objective facts and pieced them together, resulting in what he sees as the logical reason why our multibillion dollar a year funded CIA/FBI "failed" to prevent the attacks on 9/11. The curious thing about this article is, the author didn't have to "jump through hoops" to reach his conclusion.

Friends, we are smack-dab in the middle of the most dangerous time in our nation's history.

Buy Gold and Silver, and be quick about it.
Cavan Man
(06/03/2002; 09:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77327)
@sector concerning 9-11
Not inconceivable that conditions for some sort of strike on US soil were made ripe. There is a very good, recent book by Robert Stinnett about the attack at Pearl. Coincidentally, the author served under GB in the USN during WWII. I digress....FDR's strategy to bring the US into the war against the Axis required the instigation of the attack on Pearl Harbor--an atrocious act "beyond the pale". From FOIA data recently de-classified, Stinnett lays out a compelling story in a non-judgmental context for high ranking US political/military complicity in the affairs leading up to 12-7-41. Does history really repeat itself? Regards...CM
(06/03/2002; 10:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77328)
CBS Market Watch : Stock Market Crash In One Year ???
Snippit :

Vickers is an investment letter's investment letter. Many services use its data. Veteran Michael Burke of Investors Intelligence has just given his readers his interpretation of the Vickers indicator: "This week was the WORST reading since August 1986. and the previous four were the WORST readings since the Spring of 1993...The HUGE reading back in 8/86 foretold the Crash of 1987 and was one of the reasons we exited the market in August 1987, up over 40 percent for the year and stayed out till after the CRASH!"

This may sound odd, but Burke has explained that he looks at insider data on a year-ahead basis. "If they are buying now, it is bullish for a year from now. If they are selling, it is bearish for a year from now." Mark Hulbert confirms that Investors Intelligence was 100 percent cash during the 1987 Crash.

(06/03/2002; 10:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77329)
New Swiss Law..."No Gold Paper"

27: RS 951.11 Art. 65 (National Bank Law)
Summary: National Bank Law VII. Penal Provisions Art. 64 Art. 65a Art. 65 1 Anyone who in contravention of the provisions of Article 39 of the Federal Constitution issues bank notes or other equivalent monetary tokens, anyone who puts such bank notes or monetary tokens into circulation, shall be punishable by imprisonment or a fine; both punishments may be combined. 2 Gold certificates in the form of securities incorporating an ownership right or claim to minted or unminted gold and made out to the bear. . .
Size: 2K, created: May-08-02 16:02

National Bank Law
VII. Penal Provisions
Art. 64
Art. 65a

Art. 65
1 Anyone who in contravention of the provisions of Article 39 of the Federal Constitution issues bank notes or other equivalent monetary tokens, anyone who puts such bank notes or monetary tokens into circulation, shall be punishable by imprisonment or a fine; both punishments may be combined.

2 Gold certificates in the form of securities incorporating an ownership right or claim to minted or unminted gold and made out to the bearer or transferable as if they were bearer securities shall be deemed to be monetary tokens in terms of paragraph 1.

3 These criminal cases shall come under the jurisdiction of the Federal Court.

(06/03/2002; 10:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77330)
Strive for a broader perspective
This should demonstrate why it is important for people to try to grasp the fundamentals of the big picture rather than focusing on the news of the moment -- the little picture.

With an understanding of the big picture, you can confidently establish a mid-term/long-term position without jumping back and forth in some wild attempt to react to the latest changing headlines.

Listed below is just an example of the frustrations that can be caused by the changing news of the "little picture". These two headlines were separated in time by only one hour.

(8:31) Dollar Rises Against Euro After Report Shows Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

(9:32) Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen on Concern Investors Will Pull Out of U.S.

A broader perspective will help you understand which of these directional movements of the dollar represents the overall trend.

Call Centennial to establish your gold diversification strategy today.

(06/03/2002; 10:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77331)
"Why No Fanfare"???.........Seems Strange....
Swiss SNB Sold 11.1 Tons Of Gold in 10-Day Period To MayNormally this news would be dragged out and made into a big negative for Gold buyers & Specs....What's Up???
Tommy P
(06/03/2002; 10:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77332)
Bush had everything to gain by allowing 9/11
You see folks like his dad before him, he also attacked a oil rich country. I don't know the specifics but Afganistan has roughly 10% of all the natural gas and 6% of oil (estimates) that has not been extruded from the ground. you see it was clear back in 09/11/2001 that this was well played out!Why did Isreal Prime Minister cancel his trip the day before? Why do you think the Russians fought in Afgan for 10 years?? Because they wanted the sand???? Why do think Putin/Bush met in Texas for a week? to discuss cattle? or oil and how they were going to split afganistan?
Why were so many Israeli intellegence officers caught in the U.S. The Bush and CIA admin needed a reason to go into afgan and implement there own government to start drilling for oil/n.gas

People everytime you read bush, you must also remember the word oil!
(06/03/2002; 10:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77333)
YGM -- Swiss Penalties on Gold Certificates
"Does it bode well for Gold ownership?" Does it??? Does it!!! IT DOES!!!!

My good man, to my eyes this is among the many looks of Free Gold gaining solid ground.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Gandalf the White
(06/03/2002; 10:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77334)
WOWSERS YGM !!! You get the websurfing AWARD today !!!
YGM (6/3/02; 10:29:16MT - msg#: 77329)
New Swiss Law..."No Gold Paper"
(06/03/2002; 10:55:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77335)
'Big Smile' here..Should have known that would get your attention first!
Yessiree...Only the "REAL" Thing will do..and the Swiss Gov.
say so!......YGM

(06/03/2002; 11:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77336)
AhhhH Gandalf....
You're almost as fast as Ari.........monetary tokens:........hmmmmm!! Green, Blue, Gold, Rainbow Fiats should fall in that category also........Maybe the Swiss are on to something :>} Gold & Silver Coin for the Entire realm Sir Michael....Let the Coin Pressing begin!
Clint H
(06/03/2002; 11:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77337)
Tommy P (6/3/02; 10:34:41MT - msg#: 77332)

Tommy, there are may reasons to disagree with the above post. Let's just go buy some more gold and pass on the rest. ;)
Tommy P
(06/03/2002; 11:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77338)
Clint H
(06/03/2002; 11:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77339)
YGM Swiss Gold sales - the above link here at USAGold provides a good background to the Swiss selling 1300 tons of "excess" reserves. Cheers,
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 11:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77340)
The Dollar Bubble by Stephen Roach (New York)

The post-bubble US economy has not been lacking in aftershocks. The collapse in business spending on information technology is at the top of the list. In close pursuit is the meltdown of the telecom sector. But not all of the excesses have been purged. Could the dollar bubble be next to pop?

Our valuation work on the US currency certainly points to a significant overhang. Stephen Li Jen's estimates suggest that the real effective exchange rate of the dollar was approximately 14% over-valued at the start of this year. He bases this conclusion on three measures of US economic performance relative to that of its trading partners -- productivity, terms of trade, and fiscal policy -- plus America's net foreign-asset position. The important point about this valuation exercise is that all four of these fundamental measures are now deteriorating (see his 16 May dispatch, "Four Strikes You're Out!") This underscores an even more painful reality -- that the dollar's valuation overhang is essentially a moving target that is likely to shift to the upside in the years ahead. That, in turn, implies that the recent bout of dollar deterioration -- approximately 3% on a trade-weighted basis so far this year -- has done little to bring the currency back down to earth. In other words, if there's a dollar bubble, it has yet to pop.

Black Blade: The USD has fallen back today. The equities markets are feeling the pinch as foreign investors are pulling out their investments in order to beat the decline on Wall Street and the deteriorating currency exchange rates. About the only positive sector lately has been Gold.

Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 11:43:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77341)

June 3, 2002 -- Summer is not looking too good for investors in U.S. stocks. With corporate earnings still in the doldrums, a faltering economic recovery, ongoing concerns about terrorist threats, the danger of nuclear war between India and Pakistan and worldwide turmoil, U.S. stocks are expected to move only sideways this summer. There may, however, be highly volatile days with big ups and downs along the way. "News on Wall Street [is] not likely to convince the average investor that much has changed," said Donald Straszheim, founder of Straszheim Global Advisors. "Headlines like Adelphia are big market negatives." To make matters worse, there is nothing coming up on the economic or earnings calendar that could propel the market up.

Black Blade: It does not look good on Wall Street today. The DOW is down 112, the NASDAQ is down 36, and the S&P is off by 15.5 points. Even so, these market indices are grossly overvalued and poised for more drastic declines. There could be a rush of investment dollars seeking a "safe haven� or as the financial media pundits are now saying � "a flight to quality" � Gold.

Tommy P
(06/03/2002; 12:01:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77342)
First Enron now this ....mmmmmmmmmmmmmm don't you think??
(06/03/2002; 12:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77343)
I don't usually post links to press articles but.... think financial privacy is going to become even more important not only to us who already care but to the average person as they get tired of feeling like a suspect.

The Wealth of Kings--stable, secure, and PRIVATE
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 12:36:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77344)
Re: Tommy P

This is probably a trend. During the Great Depression there were a number of suicides, though not the typical fable of brokers doing the "swan dive" out of Wall Street skyscaper windows. Perhaps this is the new American version of Hari Kiri. Maybe he had no other options (as his probably expired worthless). Notice that the CEO's aren't the ones dying. Not that I am pushing any conspiracy ideas. Cheers!

- Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 12:38:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77345)
Whither goes the dollar? York, June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a fourth day in five against the euro and yen on concern investors will pull money out of the U.S. in favor of Europe and Japan.

Foreign investors have been buying U.S. assets partly based on expectations that U.S. standards for accounting and corporate governance were superior to other economies, [Bank of America Corp's Eric] Nickerson said. Since the bankruptcy of energy trader Enron Corp. ``people are starting to re-evaluate that,'' he said.

...the dollar has lost almost 6 percent of its value so far this quarter, falling a record four straight months against the euro.

Foreigners may hesitate to buy U.S. assets if they expect the currency will keep declining and erode the value of their investments.

The U.S. current account deficit ballooned to a record $417.4 billion in 2001, making the dollar vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries.

-----------(click URL for full text)---------

Bottom line: long-term trends are built not upon daily whims but upon fundamentals, and here we see a big one. The U.S. current account remains the elephant that somehow got invited to the dinner party.

(06/03/2002; 12:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77346)
Oh yessssss! Some of us have been watching the nice break in silver above $5.00, just not the front-line debaters yet.
(06/03/2002; 13:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77347)
Been watching POS here too...and have been trying to find some good literature to WHY the big jump right now. Any clues anyone?? Glad I have silver as well as gold!
Peace, Love, and Silver Bars!
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 13:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77348)
Bankers' boom valuations are attacked

US regulators are uncovering fresh evidence that bankers, like stock market investors, erred by embracing "new economy" valuation methods during the 1990s boom. The regulators are discovering large losses on loans secured by "enterprise value" - a form of collateral that boiled down to a company's expected value in a sale. Such calculations were typically based on the market values implied by recent mergers and acquisitions in a borrower's industry. This methodology became increasingly popular among bankers as deal prices soared. Some regulators warned bankers at the time that they should be demanding more tangible forms of collateral. They are now pointing to the rising losses as a lesson for lenders. "A lot of the loan losses you have seen banks take - and they are on the rise - are associated with this issue," said David Gibbons, who oversees credit issues for the Treasury agency involved in this review. "It's not like they are writing off hard assets."

Black Blade: Pro Forma? Operating Profits? Synthetic Leases? What next? � "Enterprise Value". These guys must just sit around all day dreaming up new ways to "cook the books". No wonder the stock markets are crashing and the US Dollar is weaker by the day. No one in their right mind would stay invested in these pigs.

BTW, notice the new Charles Schwab commercials slamming the Wall Street bankers and investment houses? (not that Schwab is an innocent player). They are really playing off the Henry Blogett and Mary Meeker "pump and dump" schemes. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 13:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77349)
Re: Graefin - Silver

Silver is following Gold higher as well as the questionable supply available. Other than that Silver is rising on some of the same fundamentals as Gold - that is US Dollar weakness and the prospect of war in both the Middle East and Central Asia. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 13:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77350)
Dollar Falls on Concern Investors Will Pull Money Out of U.S.∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APPueyhVQRG9sbGFy

New York, June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a fourth day in five against the euro and yen on concern investors will pull money out of the U.S. because of skepticism about companies' credibility. The U.S. currency declined with stocks after Tyco International Ltd.'s chairman resigned following a New York Times report that he's under criminal investigation for tax evasion.

Against a basket of currencies including the yen, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar has lost almost 6 percent of its value so far this quarter, falling a record four straight months against the euro. Foreigners may hesitate to buy U.S. assets if they expect the currency will keep declining and erode the value of their investments. Along with concern about U.S. corporate accounting practices, investors say they are also leery of the U.S. because of the potential for further terrorist attacks. The U.S. current account deficit ballooned to a record $417.4 billion in 2001, making the dollar vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries.

Black Blade: TIMBER!!! Look at the stock indices falling off into the abyss in the last few minutes. Watch those foreigners go! I don't blame them though. We should pay attention to Gold and Silver tonight.

(06/03/2002; 13:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77351)
Tommy P (6/3/02; 10:34:41MT - msg#: 77332)
I have known George Bush for 50 years, and it is obvious to me from your post's headline that you don't know him at all.

Let's talk about gold, oil, economics, etc; but there are other sites for that other kind of b.s.
(06/03/2002; 13:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77352)
Tommy P (6/3/02; 10:34:41MT - msg#: 77332)
I have known George Bush for 50 years, and it is obvious to me from your post's headline that you don't know him at all.

Let's talk about gold, oil, economics, etc; but there are other sites for that other kind of b.s.
(06/03/2002; 13:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77353)
Wizard News.......... for Gandalf the "White"..........Wizard Patron Saint!*

Sunday, 2 June, 2002, 13:35 GMT 14:35 UK

Magician priest wants patron saint of magic

By David Willey
BBC Rome Correspondent

*A priest who uses magic tricks to entertain his congregation has asked the Pope to name a patron saint of conjurers, magicians, and wizards.

Don Silvio performs magic tricks for his congregation

Don Silvio Mantelli, a Salesian priest from Turin, presented a magic wand to the Pope earlier this year and asked for the title to be given to a 19th Century Italian priest - Saint Giovanni Bosco.

*Don Silvio says that the Pope replied: "You'll need a lot of magic wands to change our world; but lets make a start with this one!"
"In Italian the word for a wizard - 'Mago' - is ambiguous," Don Silvio told me. "You can have good wizards and bad ones, just as you have white and black magic. We are on the side of 'white' magic, you understand."

*When he celebrates his annual magicians' mass next year Don Silvio hopes to announce that the Vatican has formally accepted Saint John Bosco as patron saint of the world's wizards.
(06/03/2002; 13:56:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77354)
Black Blade (6/3/02; 13:48:08MT - msg#: 77350)
Looks like we are about to find out how slippery a slippery slope can be.
(06/03/2002; 13:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77355)
YGM -Swiss Gold
The Swiss have been selling gold steadily for about a year at an average rate of about 5 tons/week. The sales tend to ramp up with higher prices and then go down again with lower prices. They are a signator to the WA and cannot exceed their annual quota set by that agreement. What puzzles me is why they requested and were given the bulk of the WA quotas (which appears to be gold unfriendly) and then they write a new law that appears to be very gold friendly.

My only theory is that the Swiss CB is using the sales to channel the gold to bail out specific bullion banks from their paper positions before the SHTF. Is there any information who is buying the Swiss gold?

Maybe you or others could offer another theory.
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 13:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77356)
Dollar approaches hour of reckoning

The main issue for the markets this week will be whether the US dollar can regain its footing after falling to 15-month lows against the euro. The dollar drew some support at the end of last week from strength in the Michigan consumer confidence index and impressive productivity growth figures for the first quarter. Dollar bulls will be hoping this week's non-farm payroll figures will help inject fresh optimism into the currency. The consensus forecast is for a rise of 60,000 in payrolls. But there is wide agreement in the foreign exchange market that the dollar's hour of reckoning is fast approaching.

Black Blade: Market indices are plunging in the last few minutes. Foreign investors are reportedly fleeing the US markets en masse. Meanwhile the US Dollar is poised to sink much lower. I would suspect that there could be some government intervention, however, the trend is definitely lower. It is quite amusing that on CNBC, anchors Joe Kernan and Maria Bartiromo are crying that the market needs to hurry and close for the session.

(06/03/2002; 13:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77357)
TownCrier - - - Are we an 'event' driven economy?
After reading your earlier post about trends, and hasty decision making, it got me to pondering.

It is evident that many know gold exists, and it seems apparent that some even know of it as a reliable investment umbrella, but relatively speaking, but in North America, we are a small percentage as compared to other regions of the world.

Is it that North Americans have developed into a society where it takes a major catastrophe or development before we make the decisions we've been pondering for great lengths of time? Do we need a trigger of sorts?

With all of the support gold hes been receiving publicly lately, I would think that the hasty decision making, and investor uncertainty period would be over, and that we would begin to see a strong interest in gold without the uncertainty.

Gold has risen in value relatively gradually over the course of the last few months, whereas other investment areas are see-sawing.

I guess the real question I have is - - - Why as North Americans have we pushed off gold as a commodity, and useless investment, and why do we continue to feel this way after gold continues to prove itself in front of our very eyes?

pondering RobotGuy.
The Hoople
(06/03/2002; 14:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77358)
Wall Street freaking out
Foreign dollar holders must be disturbed by today's huge selloff on Wall Street. Could bode well for gold tomorrow? Electric utility suicides are just another sorry chapter in yet another corrupt industry. A business friend of mine in the mobile home repo business said his repo's are off 50%. The reason? Bankers told him they are trying to "help the economy" and go easy on them. Yeah, right. Just another SHTF situation getting ready to come unglued.
barnacle bill
(06/03/2002; 14:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77359)
GtRumorsof Gold
The Quick SilverYesterday at the Canterbury Park Racetrack, 9th race was won by GtRumorsofGold. Had you bet one ounce of gold on GtRumors you would have collected $1056.

Twelve-to-one longshot;TheQuickSilver came in fourth.Had you bet an ounce of silver on that, you would have lost about five bucks.

There are many ways to ride the Gold Bull!
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 14:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77360)
Consumer optimism fading

ANN ARBOR, Mich., June 3 (UPI) -- Consumer optimism faded in May though the majority surveyed for the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment said they still expect the recovery to continue without interruption for the rest of the year. The index, which was released Monday, found consumers expect the economic recovery to slow and jobs to remain scarce. The index rose to 96.9 in May from 93.0 in April. The May 2001 reading was 92.0. About a third of consumers reported their financial situation had worsened, up from 20 percent at the start of 2000. And though consumers expect income increases later in the year, they're anticipating an increase in inflation to 2.7 percent.

Black Blade: I sense that many consumers are in for a very rude awakening. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow higher as companies desperate search for ways to cut costs or even squeak out a profit. As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, stash enough cash for several months expenses, and get started on a nonperishable food and basic goods program. We live in "Interesting Times".

(06/03/2002; 14:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77361)
Swiss Gold Sales....I think your theory is basicaly correct in some instances but not with the Swiss CB sales. With regards to bailing out B Banks (or Lessees for that matter) I think when these sales were formulated there was no real fear of (Gold) Loans or Hedges going underwater and whenever Gold poked it's nose up these same sales (and other CB sales) were trotted out for the media talking heads to promote. Now I'm mystified as to why no media hype?

I myself believe if "Truth be Known" these sales (and possibly others) are meant to put the physical back into the hands of old money such as Rothschilds among others. If one knew who held the most voting shares on various Central Banks that are selling Gold and how they voted we'd have some answers. If only we could follow the trail thru the land of smoke and mirrors huh! Like trying to track a trout up a muddy stream and only a Sackett can do that.......YGM

**Waverider...Thanks, I read it some time ago.....
(06/03/2002; 14:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77362)
USAGOLD is pleased to welcome a new addition to our lineup Warner has agreed to offer up his keen insights and observations of the markets in reviews titled "The Afternoon Gold Report".

Today marks Mr. Warner's first contribution in this capacity, and we're sure you will benefit from his long experience in the mining and energy sectors.

Click the URL above to visit the Daily Market Report & Live News page, where you will find Jon's commentary in the place where MK was -- until recently -- lately seen in deepest contemplation... upon a hammock between two trees.

Welcome aboard, Jon!

(06/03/2002; 14:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77364)

Which George Bush do you know and in what context?
In my readings of historical finances concerning gold and silver, I have consistently come across the name Bush. I do not know any of the Bush family, and I lived in Texas for 10 years. But it seems that they have many positive actions for gold, silver and oil and a few negative ones. Am I only to accept the positive and ignore the negative? Can we skew history to our liking? I am not speaking for or against your friend, George Bush. I just don't see how we can pick and choose what we put in our history.

(06/03/2002; 15:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77365)
Let's stay away from petty political bickering. . .
Criticizing the current administration for its policies is one thing -- I don't agree with everything the Bush administration does either -- but when the discussion degenerates to unsubstantiated, ad hominem, baseless attacks on the integrity and character of the President of the United States in times like these, then I believe somebody ought to step up and put a cork in it.

After all we are a public forum being read by thousands daily. Do we want to be known for this sort of thing?
(06/03/2002; 15:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77366)
One day.....
....The euro has to make public his alliance with Gold !?
The ambitious euro currency as a Gold friend and Mentor.
The euro as good as Gold and Gold as good as the euro. VOG reflected in a POG that is a reflection on the quality of euro-management ! Don't mess with the euro or people (ECB/BIS) will adjust the price of his closest associate, Gold. Euroland's CBs will not be allowed to mess with their remaining Goldreserves in their respective National Banks.
This new euro-Gold, adaptive standard must be promoted sooner or later with some firm announcements on Gold policy (policies) by ECB.

The price of the valuable Gold will always trend upwards as the euro will also expand at a faster rate than the diciplinarry correct rate. An intrinsic error in every currency, printed by any politician. Once Gold is generally accepted as the ultimate controller of the euro...people/institutions, will make the direct association between both (euro and Gold).

The whole purpose of this concept is the creation of as much *stable* *growth* as possible with the appropiate speed of expansion. No falsified quantum leaps forward anymore and avoidance of backclashes from that clumsy (opportunistic) management. The latest two generations grew too fast !

The dollar never came up with a workable Gold standard alternative and made Gold available for that tiny minority that knew his Value. The *Western* general public is difficult to educate and therefore not under any suspicion to suddenly start accumulating Gold for reasons of currency fatique or distrust. That good old Gold reflex was anesthesized with easy price-control. The euro architects, cooperated with this general perception building...because they had something very different in mind.

Have a look at the POG in euro and see how POG and euro exchange rate (versus dollar), rise in tandem. From the low of 245� ('99) to 342� today and �/$ from 0,85 to 0,934!!!
Isn't that nice for Eurolanders and sympathisants ?

Today the Belgian private (!) business-channel (Z) on tele, announced loudly that Gold starts to be re-discovered and will include a POG ticker in euro soon !

Let us translate TG's CPM-archives into Chinese/Russian and Arabic, fo them to spread the theory(ies). MK might expand his fine business overthere too !
(06/03/2002; 15:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77367)
Let's stay away from petty political bickering. . .
(06/03/2002; 16:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77368)
Paper Gold Silver Downunder
Down here the NZ and OZ dollars are both out performing Gold at the moment. Especially the NZ dollar which is racing away. Paper Cash seeking a S. Pacific haven?

Gentlemen if you are interested in Freedom in a land without paper currency then we are going to have to get busy. Hiding in the hills will just get us another establishment with its fingers in the till.

have you got a political movement whose policies are
1. Freedom
2. No taxes
3. Gold based currency?

We have not. Every party is firmly in the establishment.

I'm off to buy some silver to add to the gold hoard....
Old Yeller
(06/03/2002; 16:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77369)
Where we're going
In Mannfm11's opinion.Still a lot of air left in market valuations, alot if wealth in jeopardy.
Cavan Man
(06/03/2002; 16:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77370)
FEDEX to pay 5% quarterly dividend
Now, there's a novel idea. Ben Graham would be pleased.
Cavan Man
(06/03/2002; 16:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77371)
Toyota in Europe
Announced today they will be sourcing in the EU almost exclusively and remitting to suppliers in EURO.

CM comment: Bye Bye Sterling.
Cavan Man
(06/03/2002; 17:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77372)
El Paso Energy
Their Sr. VP and Treasurer committed suicide today. Saw story on CNN this afternoon in Detroit.
(06/03/2002; 17:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77373)
I am not so stupid as to pick and choose what to believe based on any friendship, desire, or wish.....or who I know or don't know.

I took exception to what was said earlier ["Bush had everything to gain by allowing 9/11"], and I stand by my reaction.

That is an insinuation that is repugnant at best.

I stand by what I said.
Solomon Weaver
(06/03/2002; 18:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77374)
CIBC raises estimates on gold prices for 2002 and 2003

Market Report -- Short Stories (ABX, KGC, NEM, GLG)
May 31, 2002 10:36:00 AM ET

CIBC on Gold : CIBC Wrld Mkts is raising its '02 gold price forecast to $315/oz from $300/oz and '03 to $350/oz from $325/oz. Firm believes all of the fundamentals are in place for a sustained rally in bullion; firm's option value methodology can be used to explain the current euphoria in gold shares; firm believes the market is including out-of-the-money resources that were previously discounted. Firm upgraded Barrick Gold (ABX 21.96 +0.01) to BUY from Hold rating with price target of $27 based on valuation despite hedge position; downgraded Kinross Gold (KGC 2.61 +0.05) to BUY from Strong Buy rating with price target of $3.25 based on share price appreciation; firm's top picks are Strong Buy-rated Newmont Mining (NEM 30.85 +0.18) and Glamis Gold (GLG 9 +0.09). is the leading Internet provider of live market analysis for U.S. Stock, U.S. Bond, and world FX market participants.
Read other Short Story articles

Golden Bear
(06/03/2002; 18:49:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77375)
JCTex (msg#: 77373)
"That is an insinuation that is repugnant at best."

Sir JCTex,

may I enquire as to what makes it so repugnant? Do you believe that politicians of today are in geeneral patriots? If so, why are our western societies in the mess they are in?

Why do we see politicians constantly telling their people to tighten their belts, while they legislate pay rises for themselves.

Why do we see deals done by beaurocrats to let the likes of Merrill Lynch and Enron off the hook with fines and no personal convictions or jail time, when if you or I were to be involved in something similar 1/1,000,000th the scale, we would get a prison sentence?

The days of the true patriots existed with those visionaries who drafted your constitution, not these parasites who pretend to uphold it and only tear it to pieces day by day with contempt.

The true patriots of today are the likes of Reg Howe and Ron Paul, not these pathetic excuse for leaders like Clinton and Bush...

(06/03/2002; 19:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77376)
This will be the last response from me on this subject because I am becoming a part of the very thing that I do NOT want this site to become: a damned mud-slinging petty-assed political forum.

Golden, you and I probably agree [100%+] on just about everything you mentioned including politicians, Enron, Reg Howe, Ron Paul, Merril Lynch, etc., etc., etc.

In the case of GWB, I disagree strongly with the insinuation made earlier. To me, to think that he would kill or stand by while thousands of Americans were murdered is beyond impossible. I've known him too long, too well.

That doesn't mean that I agree with everything he does, politically. It does mean that his integrity is in tact with me, I'm glad he is there instead of some of the others.

If you want to think the man is a murderer; then you & I are just going to have to disagree on that one subject, but we do NOT have to discuss it here.

That's it, I'm through with the conversation. I stand where I stood. You stand where you want.
(06/03/2002; 19:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77377)
Searching For Terrorists In Your Bank Account to consider when our gold investments start paying off. Physical in possession, looks more and more attractive!
(06/03/2002; 19:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77378)
Viruses on the net
If any of you do not have some sort of antivirus program on your computer. Get one NOW!!

We took two hits last week.

We have been hit, tonight, by three different emails containing the Klez virus. Two were from people that we don't know. One was from someone we do know.

Golden Bear
(06/03/2002; 19:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77379)
JCTex (msg#: 77376)
Agreed Sir,

and let us continue to share our love of gold and enjoy the fruits of our endeavours...

(06/03/2002; 19:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77380)
Black Blade
Gosh, I return from the gym to find all sorts of suprises...I trust that "The Morning Blade" will continue? Congratulations...but please don't succumb to the same fate as MK....once in a hammock they're difficult to get out of! Cheers,
(06/03/2002; 19:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77381)
Summer Doldrums
Just another excuse?The stock market took a dip today and summer is upon us. Lots of money on the sidelines they say. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the next excuse for a downturn in the market is everyone is going on vacation. Yepper,they are taking a breather and let the market run its course. Never mind about all that legal stuff at the major corporations doors. You can hear the investors saying, Going to FIJI tonight for a few days everything will be alright. The dollar is going down. Stocks going down and Gold going up. Plus all the other things happening, I doubt very seriously that many are going to stray far from home.

On another note. Just recieved my ACME Mercury Rocket Kit.
Not alot of creature comfort but they said it would get me
To Da Moon. That's where Gold is going? :o)

Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 19:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77382)
Market mover: Silver≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&

Gold may have been grabbing the market headlines in recent weeks, but silver has made equally striking advances. After steep falls in January this year, the precious metal has remained highly volatile, but the past fortnight has seen silver leap from strength to strength. On Friday, the spot price in London climbed through the important psychological barrier of $5/oz, to close at a two-year high.

There is a global mismatch of silver supply and demand. Industrial use outstrips combined mine production, recycling and government sales by 16 per cent. The solution has historically rested in the hands of private investors, who hold around 400 million ounces. Also at work on the silver markets were growing concerns over the dollar, which has tumbled hard against the euro and the yen. Commodity buyers are now finding that they can build large stocks of dollar-denominated metals at relatively cheaper prices.

Black Blade: Word is getting out about the precious metals. Rumor has it that physical silver supply is getting very tight.

Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 20:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77383)
Re: Waverider

Thanks, I will try to keep an "ear to the ground" and post what is interesting. I too just got back from the gym - my sore legs, and arms, and ..... well you get the picture. Cheers!

BTW, is everyone watching the POG and USD action tonight? Asia is moving Gold higher and Japanese government intervention is not having much effect on the USD.

- Black Blade
Gandalf the White
(06/03/2002; 20:32:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77384)
Congrats to Dr. BB !!!
Khop Khun Krup
(06/03/2002; 20:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77385)
Golden Bear
Thanks, Golden. I'll be glad to talk about it by email or phone if you like. Just not here.

This is too good a site to get it all slimey with political stuff.

Best to you.
Troy Boy
(06/03/2002; 20:41:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77386)
monetary bases
So as this whole metals mania heats up, and we have many indicators why, should we all sit back and wait for a new government sponsored medium of exchange?
Why should we wait for another politically founded currency when we have the technology today for private gold based currencies?
(06/03/2002; 20:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77387)
Black Blade (6/3/02; 20:04:18MT - msg#: 77383)
Stay out of that gym. We need for you to get that stuff above 330, tonight, and then you have to be sharp first thing in the morning, too.

I keep coming back to see if maybe, just maybe, this time, etc.

Doggone, it's nice to be on this side of the thing for a change!!
Golden Bear
(06/03/2002; 21:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77388)
Troy Boy (msg#: 77386)
Why should we wait for another politically founded currency when we have the technology today for private gold based currencies?Sounds like the stirrings of a revolution to me...

Go Gold!, Go Goldbugs!

PS. Just ordered my copy of Gold Wars, can't wait to sink my teeth into it...
Troy Boy
(06/03/2002; 21:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77389)
Political slime
I am a little backwards I guess, but I am slightly confused.
This is a gold site, and all the members who monitor and post to this site watch the movements of precious metals. Well the cause of the movements today is founded in the POLITICAl manipulation of the world. From South Africa to the good ole USA.
Now it seems the good ole USA's citizens have now come under a police state. What?
Tex have you read the PATRIOT Act and now the money laundering laws put in place by POLITICIANS, signed by GWB?
So how can you have a forum like this, and not discuss politics when the politicians and bankers, the leaders of the sheeple, are running the world.
We are a select few who are paying attention.
I agree with Black Blade. In fact 8 months ago I took his advice and began ordering my rations and energy supplies.
In fact I guess I have been seeking even greater asylum by putting my home up for sale as it has increased in value over the last three years by over 125%. (Florida waterfront) Although I think it is insane, there are those paying. I hope to join the rest of the top income bracket and expatriat as the US is out of control.
Thank goodness the ones who are paying attention are ahead of the curve. It is through this wonderful medium of exchange that we can help understand what is happening around the world around the clock.
Sometimes the truth does hurt.
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 21:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77390)
Interesting-Scary Chart
All together now: "The bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the see what he could see"

Japanese intervention on Yen selling and US Dollar buying is having no effect tonight. Just shoveling Japanese taxpayer cash into the furnace.

- Black Blade
Golden Bear
(06/03/2002; 21:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77391)
Troy Boy (msg#: 77389)
Political slimeI was thinking the same, but my diplomatic side got the better of me, and wanted to keep things civil amongst us all...

Cheers, and long live the freedom to have our own opinions and the ability to voice them!
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 21:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77392)
BOJ spent oodles to stem yen's rise

NEW YORK (Kyodo) The Bank of Japan spent between $8 billion and $10 billion in foreign exchange markets to stem the yen's surge Friday in one of the biggest single-day interventions in recent years, dealers said. The scale of the intervention matches a dollar-supporting intervention carried out by the BOJ after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, signaling a strong determination by Japanese monetary authorities to halt the yen's rapid rise, they said. Dealers said the scale of the dollar-buying by the BOJ since Wednesday comes close to 2 trillion yen, making it possible the central bank's intervention in the April-June quarter will surpass a record 3.2 trillion yen in the July-September quarter last year. The BOJ also stepped into currency markets on May 22 and 23.

Black Blade: A good companion article to the USD chart. The intervention has short term effects to the tune of about 24 hours at best. Not a very good return on investment.

(06/03/2002; 21:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77393)
Forum's INO Quotes looking...
GOOD from where I sit, brave knights. Starting with the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index- closing in on 105! This alone is enough to raise any fat cat's pulse, and slickened hairs needless to say. This makes them spit out further funds, derivatives, and megabyte entries, to passify the threatening adversary. Ditto, the bond prices (shown is the 10 yr. US T-bill), which are in a much larger market to control. The T-bills are a sleeping giant, attracting safe haven & pension funds and a part of diversified portfolios worldwide, including governmental, institutional, and individual. The more they attract, the higher the price, and the lower the rate of return. These rates rise of course when the Central Bank (Fed, F(ed)eral (P)reserve) raises the prime rate, the rate charged to member banks to borrow. The recent trading range of 4.9- 5.4% should succumb so quickly, that the cat may have the media's tongue, diverting attention somewhere like energy, nukes, or the latest television spectacles. The dollar and gold, keep pace in opposite directions, like GATA'S enveloping horn, the famous Zulu chief's brilliant battle stategem.
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 21:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77394)
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan sign pipeline agreement

ISLAMABAD - Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan signed an agreement for the construction of a US$2 billion, 1,500-kilometer gas pipeline from Daulatabad via Afghanistan to Gwadar. Musharraf said they discussed construction of the pipeline, the development of communication and railway infrastructure, and the enhancement of trade and economic cooperation not commensurate with the close bonds among them. The Daulatabad-Gwadar gas pipeline provides the shortest route for the supply of gas from the Central Asian countries to the outside world, especially the Far East and Japan.

Black Blade: Now to see if anyone can hold it if it is ever built. The region is a hotbed of terrorism and antagonism with dueling warlords and bandits. Someone will have to protect the pipeline. I wonder who that will be?

(06/03/2002; 21:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77395)
Actual CRB index...
Moving in on 205, not 105.
(06/03/2002; 21:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77396)
@Black Blade Ref: Pipeline
The bribes and payoffs will be tremendous. It will be a new source of income for the warlords. A steady paycheck coming in, NOT to blow up the pipeline. Of course the consumer will pay for all.
The Hoople
(06/03/2002; 22:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77397)
$330.00 August gold!
If these gains hold overnight tomorrow's COMEX could be about as much fun as chewing tin foil for the Cabal. I'll bet the Tyco shareholders joining the ranks of "decrease your wealth 30% overnight" club will have a nasty aversion to paper. Long gold, short paper. It's that simple.
Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 22:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77398)
California loses appeal over power crisis

WASHINGTON -- California lost a Supreme Court appeal today over Gov. Gray Davis' seizure of electricity contracts at the height of a power crisis in which the state suffered rolling blackouts and sky-high energy prices. North Carolina-based Duke Energy sued the governor last year, alleging that Davis illegally took control of the long-term contracts. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed, ruling 2-1 that Davis did not have the authority to take over en estimated $200 million in contracts because Congress has not granted the states such rights in energy matters. The California power market went haywire in late 2000. The price of electricity soared and the state experienced rolling blackouts. Davis declared a state of emergency in January 2001, and then used his emergency powers to commandeer future energy contracts the following month. Davis said he acted to prevent the power from being resold to buyers outside California. "Even a minor loss of electricity could have resulted in further blackouts," the state told the Supreme Court.

Black Blade: Looks like the state will just have to raise rates and/or taxes to pay the piper. That's what happens when politicians re-regulate industry without thinking. The state must still address the issues of new power generation, power plant construction, and infrastructure upgrades.

Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 23:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77400)
Thar She Blows!!!

There it is. Spot Gold over $330.00/oz. and the USD sub 111. Looks like a run to $340 is in order.

- Black Blade
(06/03/2002; 23:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77401)
It's going to be one heck-of-a party at Canada Place in Vancouver this week!
(06/03/2002; 23:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77402)
"Thar She Blows..."
Black Blade..."Thar she blows" crack me up!
- Gr�fin
PS...thanks for the earlier silver update!
(06/04/2002; 00:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77404)
I am also going to Vancouver tomorrow.
(06/04/2002; 00:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77406)
(No Subject)
I feel that a shattering stock market crash that will devastate the country is set to strike. FED easing has been a sweeping success for getting people more into debt. But in terms of its effects on real GDP, it is an outright disaster. It is the world wide criminal plundering via dollarization that keeps the U.S. economy going. Big money is being made by huge short positions. The Carlyle group runs this country and has large short positions on major indexes. I think the dollar will fall. A war will start after the fall. I feel this war will then change the flow of money back to USA. This entire episode is to get excess $'s out of circulation. With money gone to money heaven or into the shorters hands, fewer dollars will exist to make payments on ever more debt. I feel money will get very hard to get just like it did in the 30's. Derivatives are set to wipe out banks. Banks will soon be forced to call in all outstanding loans. Whatever money still in circulation will be used in an attempt to save the roof over home owners heads. Government of the people, by the people, for the people will be government of the U.S.Corporation, by the U.S.Corporation and for the U.S.Corporation. That corporation is the FED who already owns 78.1% of all assets.------ I wish people would look at who owns ITERA. That alone will explain what is going on. I feel the Russian economy will collapse sometime the next two years and a large mass of people will head for the European borders. Massive amounts of money is going into ITERA. Those funds are $'s. -- For many U.S.corporations are getting looted. Never- never bet on anything you can't afford to loose. On the other hand, if you are positioned correctly to go bankrupt, you have the stockholders as unknowing silent partners. Somebody has to hold the empty bag shell to make possible for the insiders to loot what is left to loot. I still feel that Bin Laden is working for the U.S. After all he is a part owner of ITERA. So is the Carlyle group. ITERA is buying into U.S. and other countries oil assets. ITERA, unlike Enron has real assets, is privately held and is expanding.
(06/04/2002; 00:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77407)
Sorry Topaz. How about MRCI or INO instead? (both are linked atop this page)
The source you posted for those gold price quotes is a gold selling agent. As you know, Centennial pays the bills for development and ongoing operation of this site, and it would be inappropriate to let competitors enjoy this avenue for free exposure and/or promotion at the host's expense. That said, on with the show...

(06/04/2002; 01:25:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77408)
No worries mate, just hard to find a ready reference to Gold in the major currencies (live) on one any suggestions?
I think it's important not to lose sight of the fact that PoG is not necessarily jumping out of it's skin EVERYWHERE...(yet)
(06/04/2002; 01:39:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77409)
The Russian factor,3523,1099786-6094-0,00.html(Business Day) -- RUSSIAN gold mines say that production is accelerating so fast, they may surpass 170 tons this year.

...Russia was ranked fifth on the world table of gold producers, well behind SA, the US and Australia. It is now closing on Indonesia, which ranks fourth with annual production of 175 tons.

Russian government figures released last week indicate that in the first four months to April 30, gold production rose overall by 43% (7,2 tons), compared with the same period last year.
-----------(click URL for full text)----------

A bottom line speculation: As a significant gold player on the world scene, it seems reasonable that, all other things being equal, the Russian government would without much difficulty choose to align itself with a neighboring currency bloc built around a monetary structure that is built to survive -- if not thrive -- on gold rising in price as naturally as a nominally growing economic realm can be expected to outrun the rate of new metal production.

For gold to fall into place in such a scheme, first there must be the "one time price adjustment" as foretold by ANOTHER, followed by the ever-rising price trend that one should expect against a world of floating, inflating currencies that can and will outpace gold supply at every turn. For producing nations, this is a boon for the internal economy as well as for the favorable export impact on balance of trade.

(06/04/2002; 01:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77410)
Topaz, I hear you loud and clear is a resource that I have found to be quite handy over the years for quick and easy conversions of a gold ounce into nearly any currency you can contemplate. Just select "gold ounce" from the first dropdown menu, and then select your desired pricing unit from the second menu. Presto! POG anywhere you like.

There are fancier tools out there, like Pacific Plot, but none are quicker or simpler than this. Give it a go...

(06/04/2002; 02:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77411)
Graefin .... EagleOne .... Black Blade #77349
What's up with silver? Perhaps the above link will give us some insight. A quote from the above editorial by silver analyst David Morgan, "The smart money is moving into gold, but the SMARTEST money is moving into silver."

Black Blade #77349 "Silver is following gold higher ...."

Sir Blade, according to Bloomberg TV, over the past 5 trading days, gold is up 1.37% and silver is up 3.88% My conclusion is thus: It is silver that is leading gold! In fact, the numbers indicate that silver is going up nearly THREE TIMES FASTER during this particular period. Yes, I am sure that there will be time periods when gold may be the best performer. However, all of the facts that I have reviewed suggest that silver will EASILY win this contest over most time frames.

off to the races....
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 02:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77412)
Re: ski - Silver≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
You may have missed this article I posted last night (see link). The news reports that there is both a severe Silver shortage in the works (as does Puplava, Morgan, etc.) and other market makers who believe that Silver is tracking Gold higher. I report on both ideas.

As you may know I say that it is good to own both Gold and Silver. Why not accumulate both? BTW, I have a nice collection of uncirc. slabbed Morgans as well as Silver rounds and bars. I am not averse to holding Silver. I also have Platinum Maple Leafs, and of course my Gold Liberties, assorted Gold coin, and bullion. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 03:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77413)
Gold Higher and USD Plummets

Gold is still hanging in above $330/oz. in Europe, the USD is plunging to well below 111 and petroleum prices are higher. I am still "STRONGLY BULLISH" on Gold, unlike certain Gold analysts. If $330/oz. holds up for a couple of hours beyond the NY open we could see some fireworks with strong short covering.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 03:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77414)
Why Pakistan might turn to nukes
A regional showdown between India and Pakistan has riveted world attention for weeks because of the risk that the conflict could go nuclear.


NEW DELHI AND WASHINGTON � Officially, at least, both India and Pakistan say that chances of their current tensions escalating into a possible nuclear war are "unthinkable," "unlikely," and in the words of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, "insanity." Yet wars seldom follow a neat plan. Military analysts say there are several conventional-warfare scenarios that could lead to a South Asia nuclear war. "It is very easy to envision scenarios under which this conflict does go nuclear, but they begin at the same premise: that there is a major ground war, and Pakistan is losing," says William Lind, a military analyst at the conservative Free Congress Foundation in Washington. The big question, and the essential "firebreak," he says, is not whether either country uses nuclear weapons or not, but the possibility of "using nuclear weapons symbolically versus massive use to flatten cities."

Black Blade: In my opinion it would be very easy for a war between Pakistan and India to go nuclear. Obviously Pakistan could never hope to last long in a conventional war. So nuclear weapons are almost certain to be used.

(06/04/2002; 03:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77415)
Housing / Pipeline

Troy Boy : Black Blade

There is no doubt in my mind that the true crash in the US (and world economy) will not occur until the housing bubble pope with a big bang.

A little more than tne years ago my sister bought her house in colorado for about $ 65 K. Over a period of time they paid off their mortgage as fast as possible and then sold their house for $ 140 K, turned around and bought another newer house in the same town which is now worth about $ 250K. Last fall they asked me for advice and I pointed out to them that if they sold their house they could almost retire, as there are places in the US that are very cheap to live, and my brother in law is always complaining about his work.

I think somtime very soon, by this fall certainly the bubble will have burst and in another 5-10 years that house will be below 100K, probably near $50K. Almost everyone will stand like a deer in the headlights as the housing market crumbles like the NAZ did in the last two years.

I have already become an expat immediately after the Y2K event and it has been one of the best decisions of my life. My job is easy, my savings are going up, my health is better and the lifestyle is good. And bottom line is : I am much ,much happier watching all the various events unfold with the benefit of distance to shield me from all that current and future unpleasantness. Like watching a train wreck in slow motion ...

I also find it QUITE interesting that one of the VERY first things the new Afghani govt does is to OK the building of a pipeline. We (USA) is certainly getting our money's worth out of the 'War on Terror'.

My advice : watch the housing market for the beginning of the really really bad times ... and not coincidentally it will also be the time when gold explodes. This run up is nice of course. But it's just the beginning IMHO ...


Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 03:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77416)
Asian and European Markets are soaked in a Sea of Red
Markets are currently getting pummeled in Europe and US market indices are solidly in the red. It appears that at these levels, we could see more downside in the markets when NY trading opens. Surprisingly the European and Asian markets have plummeted on "good volume". Lately trading volume has been rather light in most all markets. It now appears that investors have made the decision to get out of the bloodbath following various accounting and corporate scandals, and dubious corporate earnings reports. Will US investors "run like the blazes" today? So far all indications suggest that is a likely possibility. We may see a rush of short covering in Gold if the price remains above $330/oz. well into the NY open. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 03:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77417)
Re: nomad - Housing Bubble

I tend to agree for the most part. I had expected the "Housing Bubble" to pop by now, however, I also think that perhaps many consider real estate as a hard asset worth holding as the markets crash. Perhaps that is the reason that the "Housing Bubble" remains inflated. I think that we may be near the time when all these markets really get beaten up. It looks like a move into PMs is a good move right now. Even the other so-called safe stocks are getting banged up these days. Even the "widows and orphan" stocks like utilities are dicey these days. Cheers!

- Black Blade
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(06/04/2002; 04:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77418)
@Black Blade, Nomad, Troy Boy - Another view of the housing bubble
Why should the housing market crash. Traditionally, the prefferred method of cooling the housing market is a sharp rise in interest rates - double digit. However, there is another method that can be used and most houseowners will not even be aware that their asset as been devalued. This method is through currency devaluation. If you have a property that is today worth 100K in local currency(USD, STG etc), and the local currency experiences a 30% downward correction against the euro (since this we all believe will be the new reserve currency), then your property as effectively been devalued by 30%. This is even more clear in the case of the UK which will definately be in the euro block quite soon. In the last 6 weeks alone, STG as gone through a 5% devaluation against the euro. That means the property value as already been devalued by 5%, and nobody as noticed, no complaints.
IMHO, the coming property devaluation will relatively painless. The protection against this devaluation is to release as much of the equity in the property as possible, and open an interest-bearing euro acccount and of course, also speak to MK!
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 04:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 77419)
Russian Oil Priced In Euros?

Glenn Stevens of Gain Capital on CNBC just announced a rumor that Russia is considering pricing oil in Euros. If so, maybe OPEC won't be too far behind.

- Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 04:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77420)
Nomad Black Blade...Housing bubble...
Don't forget that mortgage rates are at their lowest in a wery wery wery long time. Once interest rates begin to rise, which we all know they will, look out housing! My guess is when that catalyst hits, house prices will plummet. People are maxed out on credit, mortages and 2nd mortgages. What happens when their "easy credit money" is gone and it's time to pay the fiddler???
- Gr�fin
(06/04/2002; 04:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77421)
Man, BB, you beat me to it!
Black Blade got another great scoop. I couldn't believe my ears. "There is an unconfirmed rumor coming out of Russia that they are considering valuing their oil in Euros."

That is what I believe the currency trader said on CNBC when asked about dollars and gold.
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 04:18:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77422)
Bay Area buyers pay big bucks for �ordinary� properties
Million-dollar home sales at record


SAN FRANCISCO, June 3 � The dream of owning a million-dollar home ain't what it used to be. Forget about swimming pools, servants� quarters and movie stars. Jed Clampett's home � the one before he struck oil � is fast becoming a million-dollar spread in the Bay Area.

Black Blade: Speaking of "Housing Bubble", check out the article linked above.

(06/04/2002; 04:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77423)
India v. Pakistan

The situation is growing very tense with 9 more deaths with cross-country shelling. Links to both Pakistan Dawn and Hindustan times at www.worldnetdaily.

Not only is the situtation tense, but war and peace rest in the hands of the crazies. Bin Laden, et al, are in the area
and one attack from them on India will be all it takes to prod India into "surgical strikes".

A very unstable situation.

(06/04/2002; 05:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77424)
one-year chart (gold)... awefully bullish. I keep seeing visions of exponential lines extending upwards on that puppy. Anyone else see that?
(06/04/2002; 05:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77425)
War and Gold
The dismal history of the human race is one war after another with only brief intervals of peace. In times of uncertainty,chaos,and violence physical gold provides some measure of certainty.

Presently,in India and Pakistan (and the Middle East for that matter) the invisible spirit of EVIL is instigating hatred, murder,and violence.

India and Pakistan, being for the most part Godless Pagan nations (worship a cow anyone?), will most likely be lead into war. And Im sure hatred and human suffering will be the most likely result.

Not until the human race wakes up to who the real enemy is will there be peace.

Until then, have some gold on hand.

White Rose
(06/04/2002; 05:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 77426)
No trashing religion
I am deeply troubled by the reference to "pagan". So you are offended by the worship of a cow. I cow helps sustain life, it does not take it away. I think you might be offended by an insulting remark about those who worship execution instruments.

This is a forum about gold. Today is an exciting day. Even CNBC occasionally says something to warm the hearts of a goldbug. Lets keep our focus on the important issues.
(06/04/2002; 07:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77427)
@Nomad and WAC Focus on Younger Readers re 70`s Experience re: Housing Bubble:
If we are in a rerun of the 70`s show, the housing price escalation could keep on going. It will depend on people`s perceptions of value, mortgage rates,demographics and inflation.
To illustrate, say your sister takes the $250k, puts it in the bank and lives in an apartment in Arizona. Would interest payments after tax cover rent? What if people switch to saving things instead of cash. Good for gold and real estate. If rates go up, say to 19% with inflation below 10% then yes, a housing crash. What about housing demographic trends? Will bommers and echo boomers want monster homes near big northern industrial cities? I doubt it.
Finally, what about inflation and inflation vs. interest rates? Obviously, it is hard to imagine a more accommodative interest environment, but actually there is a way to continue to provide liquidity to that market and that is through inflation/currency depreciation, but in a local sense.
In the 70`s you had a negative real interest rate scenario, so for instance if your mortgage rate was 6%, but inflation was 9%, then taking the $250k and lending it to someone at 6%, then taking the tax hit meant your capital was probably reduced in value by 6% in one year. If you wanted to move up in the housing market, there was a disincentive to wait as it would cost you more. Escalation in housing values meant that housing became "free" or better to thoses with hefty mortgages. Bond holders/mortgage holders were hurt in real after tax dollars.
More important was that banks got paid back and government had a free tax ride on inflated capital gains and taxes.

So, to sum up, I would argue that there is a scenario where the housing bubble could keep on going for quite a while, could actually be reliquified while interest rates go up somewhat, so long as real interest rates decline. There are demographic and pricing power differences from the 70`s and it will be interesting to determine their effects.

The good news is that gold seems to historically start to soar after large run-ups in real estate.
(06/04/2002; 07:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77428)
Oil in Euros? Global warming? Real estate bubble? STAGFLATION!!
As I read the speculation today that Russia and then Opec would soon price their oil in Euros, it dawned on me that perhaps that explains Bush's flip-flop on global warming. Oil dollars has been a major support for the continuing dollar dominance as the world's reserve currency.

So maybe the flip-flop on global warming is an attack on oil to help mitigate the Euro shock against the dollar? Home grown fuel cell technology and other alternative energy sources would be like the WPA in the Great Depression, keeping folks busy while oil/Euro independence can be established.

Unfortunately, alternative energies are still very expensive and putting a non-oil infrastructure in place will take several years, if not decades. So we can count on massive debt and inflation escalation as we keep our own people working since imports suddenly become very expensive.

I disagree that the real estate bubble will pop into lower prices. Houses won't be selling as well because interest rates will have to rise in support of the dollar, but housing prices will soar as the dollar plummets. Other tangible goods will inflate faster than housing, but current real estate prices will rise (though inflation adjusted dollars will show them falling relative to other goods).

So, as long as one can pay his taxes and house payment, it isn't a bad idea to be invested in an affordable house considering that you have to live somewhere even in stagflationary times that are coming.
Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 07:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77429)
RE: Russian oil in EURORussia has been collecting a small amount of Euro per bbl. on sales into the EU for about two years or so. EURO will be needed to settle trade between Russia and her neighbors.

What is developing is pretty basic stuff though it will change the world. By basic I mean we learned about world trade in elementary school classes of social studies and geography. Remember where cocao comes from?

All our mysterious essayists have really been saying is that the dollar is over sold, over bought, over used and over indulged. Connect the dots. Best....CM

PS: Russia makes the first move (new friend of US).. OPEC follows. Brinkmanship at its' best.
(06/04/2002; 08:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77430)
Gold, Debt & Great Depression.... reading....
(06/04/2002; 08:02:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77431)
COMPREHENSIVE DEBT SITE site for all debt related info etc......
barnacle bill
(06/04/2002; 08:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77432)
Holy Cow !
If what I have read on the subject is true; the expression 'holy cow' comes from the fact that psychedlic mushrooms often grow in cow manure.

Down through the ages, different cultures and civilizations have used them in their religious ceremonies. I even saw a picture of a Jewish Rabbi/Priest or whatever, wearing a mushroom hat.

Have a nice day.
(06/04/2002; 08:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77433)
I think they call it a bubble because the growth of the real estate market and the escalating value of Real Estate is based on the paper profits that the stock market bubble gave us .... I don't remember a bubble in the seventies , but do remember massive inflation....

...the bubble hasn't popped yet as the bankers have been trying to patch and pump while the press has been telling glorious tales of a recovery.... 5 trillion , it is said is vanished forever from the percieved wealth of the consumer.....when the market hits on the downward plunge a specific level.....panick will ensue and selling that you have never witnessed will occur...many more trillions of consumer wealth will have vanished.....The value of the companies on the Dow Nasdaq and S&P markets has already been
looted ...The perception in the public eyes is still rose colored....the clause in most real estate mortgage contracts today reads to the effect that when/if real estate values plunge below a particular level , the bank may ask for payment ....I wonder who wrote those clauses and why???? Based on former posts , it is been stated that Banks do really well in times like these...stealing capital from the producing sector of the economy...they may also redistribute real estate when /if it falls in value....

To service the(US) debt , the Fed will have to raise Rates . Now that the Dollar is in decline and the EURO is on the rise , the rate at which the Fed will have to raise rates may be suprising based on the new global perception as to the dollar's worth and utility...THe raising of rates in this new economy domestic and global may have a further deleterious effect on dollar based assets including bubble stock market prices and the real estate valuations that heretofore growing stock market value supported....

Their was a new trend established in the developing Mutual Fund Industry .. and stock market mania that it supported.
The mutual fund industry encouraged the holders of the mutual fund to borrow against the value of the funds so that the holders of these funds could enjoy the increase in paper profits without incurring capital that husbands could share their good fortune with their patient wives / showering them with trinkets and 2nd/3rd homes...

When the value of those mutual fund accounts goes up in a panick vacuum , the real estate is going to go with it...the baby boomers is a large group which has recieved the mistaken perception that real estate is an investment..
they are going to be unloading that at a future time to a much smaller demographic group that cannot absorb it ...that is a supply /demand issue

The new problem with real estate is that the insurance cos are rewriting if they have not already stated that casualty losses due to acts of war are not covered on your cherished real estate... that makes real estate in a metroplex a financial some degree
(06/04/2002; 08:23:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77434)
Educational games at my level it is not directly gold-related, I just downloaded, for my own education, a little free game developped by the Swiss National Bank around monetary policy, in the hope that more notions on this subject could help me deciphering the discussions of our Masters here.
I just tought it could be of some interest to other little Hobbits.
The URL is indicated above. Just choose the game among the various publications.
Needless to say that there are other elements of interests in SNB's site!

Here is SNB's introductory note:
MoPoS (short for: Monetary Policy Simulation Game) is a computer game which lets the player act out the role of a fictitious central bank by implementing monetary policy in a simple virtual economy. The purpose of the game is to give the player a feel for the options and limitations of monetary policy. There is, however, no connection whatsoever between MoPoS and the monetary policy conducted by the Swiss National Bank.
On the one hand, no special background knowledge is necessary to play the game, which has been designed for interested lay persons as well as pupils and students. Since, on the other hand, it allows the model specifications (monetary policy regulation, parameter values, shock characteristics) to be altered at will, informed users will also find numerous forms of application. MoPoS was developed by former National Bank economist Yvan Lengwiler (Economic Studies Section).
The programme requires Microsoft Windows 95 (or better) and Microsoft Excel 97. The programme has not been tested with Excel 2000. No MacIntosh version is available. If you want to play the MoPoS game, download the file "MoPoS.exe" (a self-extracting ZIP file) onto your hard disk. Then run the file and select "unzip". This will download all the required files of the game onto your hard disk.

(06/04/2002; 08:35:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77435)

Had any of us been born in India, we probably would be one of those "pagans". But we would also have as our heritage, a real appreciation for gold.
(06/04/2002; 08:48:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77436)
Black Blade
$330.00 new "Line in the hedger book" to be defended?
(06/04/2002; 08:53:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77437)
Debt Crisis....
& Mortgage Defaults & Many Other Pertinent Subjects......*If anyone thinks N Americans won't be in a debt crisis if Markets and Currencies tank, then they should think again.
The debt load ie: credit card, home mortgage etc has never been so high as in present day...The lineup to hand over the keys to the house etc will be staggering compared to the 1930's...So how can anyone think property values will go up much less remain stable in the future...This is why
Davidson & Reese-Moog advocated renting or leasing prior to the next market crash...Get the value while you can and use that money in other sectors such as Gold/Silver...This topic may be easily debatable but such is my opinion as well as that of many who are far more knowledgable in these matters.....History will repeat in many ways.....

Sample of Topics and papers on the previous site I linked..

Emerging Bear Markets
Over Indebtedness

Waves of Default
Markets Ignore Indebtedness
LongWaves and Debt Polarization
by Trond Andresen

Debt Levels Bond Mkt Assoc.
Links to Bankruptcy Sites
US State Bankruptcy Laws
Corporate Bankruptcies 1980-94
Recent US banruptcies from Timesize
Quarterly US Bankruptcies
FDIC report on bank failures in debt crisis of 'eighties
US Households
Bankruptcy Petitions (nonbusiness) 1980-98IV
Credit Card $34bil paydown via new '98 mortgages
Household Debt and Delinquences, 1997
Stuart Feldstein on Consumer Credit
Mortgage Defaults
Bankruptcies Dismal Scientist Oct 97
Bankruptcies American Bankruptcy Institute
US Household and Corporate Debt 1952-2001QI
Consumer Installment Credit/Personal Income

Delinquent Non-tax Debt to US Federal government rose from $51bil in fiscal 97 to $60bil in fiscal '98
Annual Charge-offs of Savings Institutions
Non Current Loans and Leases
Interest as part of Govt Budgets Martin Armstrong 11/98
Interest vs Corporate Profits
Babson on '28-29 by Curtiss Priest
Yardeni's graphs of the Fed's Flow of Funds data.
Margin Debt/GDP from NYT
US Bankruptcy Legislation March 2000
Filings 1980-97
US Stats
S&P: 99 Record Year
Brief History of US Bankruptcy Laws
Further History with long-term HH Charts
In an NYT's (2/4/01) article that does not refer to "debt" Robert Schiller argues that "A great embarrassment for modern macroeconomic theory is that it has never achieved any consensus on the basic questions of ... what ultimately causes recessions. ...we are in a moment when confidence and market psychology are are changing fast. Surprises -- perhaps a serious recession -- could be in store for us."
Gold, Debt and the Great Depression
by Don Roper (250K pdf)
Wartime Stimulus vs Unsustainable Debt
Current Country Risk Ratings

Country-Debt Pages Indonesia
Argentina Default Around the Corner 6oct01 WP


Jubilee or Debt Forgiveness Movement Third World Debt Forum
Debtor's Cartel
Jubilee Plus
Drop the Debt
Canadian Ecumenical Jubilee Initiative

Moody's on International Corporate defaults in 2000II
Exchange Rate Policies and External Debt Levels

Guardian on International Debt
Fitch: Soverign Debt Rating Press Releases

Sustainability of International Debt
Asian crisis bailout nos
UK Insolvencies--2000.Q1
Insolvencies 1992-2001.Q1
Overindebtedness and the Fine Print

Latin America
Mexico: Christopher Whalen
Hyperinflation in the Southern Cone
Brazil's Public Debt 2/99
Brazil's Foreign Debt
Brazil's '98 Crisis by Eiji Hosomi
Africa: Ivory Coast
South Africa: Apartheid Debt
Jubilee South Africa

China: Debt Collection after oct98 GITIC default Debt covered by international reserves

Indonesia: Default or Another Dictatorship
Japan: Chart 1990-99 corporate defaults

Albania's Pyramid Scheme

Bibliography on International Debt '93

Debt Relief Movements
BBC on debt relief
Debt Relief from
IMF/WB use of debt to redistribute wealth
Odious Debts
Jubilee 2000
Catholic Workers Movement

BIS-OECD-IMF-WB recent country debt series
South Sea Bubble
Tulip Mania
The Mississippi Scheme

(06/04/2002; 08:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77438)
MORE FOR THE BONE PILE to lay off mor employees.
Around The Corner
(06/04/2002; 09:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77439)
RE: Oil in Euros? Global warming? Real estate bubble? STAGFLATION!!

From your post:

"I disagree that the real estate bubble will pop into lower prices. Houses won't be selling as well because interest rates will have to rise in support of the dollar, but housing prices will soar as the dollar plummets. Other tangible goods will inflate faster than housing, but current real estate prices will rise (though inflation adjusted dollars will show them falling relative to other goods)."

Looks like you have identified a very possible scenario!

A few questions, if you please?

1) Do you expect employment to remain stable or even rise in the U.S. in the near future? If so, who will be hiring?

2) Do you expect Fannie and Freddie to continue their current policy of allowing home owners who fall 3 months+ behind on their payments to move those payments to the back of the loan?

3) Should Fannie and Freddie falter/fail, will Congress bail them out like the did the S&L's during the '80s?

What I see taking place in the real estate market is mostly just investor buying, which artifically drives up the price of housing which increases the price ceiling at which Fannie and Freddie are allowed to loan to.

Investors are purchasing houses with no interest in actually living in them. (Houses are being bought and sold two, three, even four times without anyone ever living in them.) The investor then waits for a middle class sucker who is clueless and who, under normal market/economic conditions and without artifically low interest rates and easy no down payment terms, would never qualify for a home loan, to take the bait.

It really is nothing more than a repeat of the S&L crimes of the '80's. The real estate investors playing this game know that when the party ends, it's not them that will be left holding the bag. All they have to do is declare bankruptcy on their current real estate holdings and walk away with their millions in profits from their previous purchases and sales while the tax payers get stuck bailing out Fannie and Freddie (too big to fail).

The sad part is, all those older homeowners who maxed out their equity with re-financing will find themselves owning a home that is now worth up to 50% less than they have it financed for. So in this way, what is being done in the real estate market by the "investors" is actually going to end up hurting us worse than the S&L criminals did.

How much do you want to bet that it's largely the same group of players who bankrupt the S&Ls that are now working together in driving up the price of real estate and profiting from it, only to end up having the tax payer foot the bill?

Their MO looks awfully familiar.

The Hoople
(06/04/2002; 09:32:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77440)
Cometose, YGM, others
I have mentioned this before but I keep track of 6 stocks that to me are a direct barometer of housing, derivatives, and the economy. They tell me daily where the direction is heading. Currently all are flashing warning signals. They are: JPM, IBM, GE, HD, Fannie, and Freddie. Any housing or derivatives bubble bursting will show up in these stocks very quickly. While housing is most certainly in a bubble, I would qualify that with if your property is self-sufficient and remote you shouldn't underestimate its desirability. My property is not for sale at any price. I know many others who feel the same way.
(06/04/2002; 10:17:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77441)
Your prior message stated:*Get the value while you can and use that money in other sectors such as Gold/Silver...This topic may be easily debatable but such is my opinion as well as that of many who are far more knowledgable in these matters.....History will repeat in many ways.....*

I would like to present a opposing opinion: For me and many other typical home owners, renting or leasing as propsed in the article just doesn't pencil out. Here's why: I have about $180,000 equity in my house. If I get an equity loan for $150,000 and invest it in something returning 10%, after capital gains taxes I gain $11,500 per year but pay about $12,000 more per year in payments on the loan. Not so good.

If I rent or lease I could get $12,000 more income per year, less of course the property taxes, maintenence, insurance and other expenses on the house.

But then where am I going to live? Rent another house, I suppose, for about the same ammenities to keep the wife and kids happy and in the good schools where they now attend.

That is a break even at best with no extra left over to invest. Bottom line, I'll stay where I am and plow the extra payments I would have been making on the equity loan into more Gold Eagles.

(06/04/2002; 10:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 77442)
Real Estate Bust!
I reserve the right to be wrong, but let me give my opinion in answering your questions below:

1) Do you expect employment to remain stable or even rise in the U.S. in the near future? If so, who will be hiring?

I expect unemployment to continue to climb (and so does Bush I think). As the dollar falls, our imported goods will dramatically rise and corporate profits will plummet since so much manufacturing is done overseas. However, some jobs will come home in the process, albeit to a greatly diminished consumer economy. Faced with massive discontent and unemployment, the government will encourage industry to take on more employees, and the government will itself create jobs (such as alternative energies industries). Debt will explode and the dollar will inflate (radically?).

2) Do you expect Fannie and Freddie to continue their current policy of allowing home owners who fall 3 months+ behind on their payments to move those payments to the back of the loan?

These being federally backed, the government will make sure that poor people generally don't lose their homes. That's not to say that some higher priced or speculative investments won't be allowed to fail. These are good political moves that get officials re-elected. The result is even worse socialism and government dependence (which is what both the elected officials and the power elite desire so that THEY are more firmly in control).

3) Should Fannie and Freddie falter/fail, will Congress bail them out like the did the S&L's during the '80s?


I long ago studied my copy of "The Great Reckoning" by Davidson and Rees-Mogg. I understand and agree with their historic examples of manias causing hyperinflation and the ultimate blow-off with prices plummeting. However, devaluation of the dollar allows for old debts to be repaid with worthless dollars if the currency fails--which it looks poised to do for the first time since the Constitution was written over 200 years ago. This time, I believe the devaluation will be permanent--like new pesos or new rubles at 1/1000 of former value.

That is not to say that high end and speculative property won't get squeezed during the run-up, but the masses of Joe Schmucks with modest houses won't be put on the street if he can weather the storm since they represent majority votes. Those middle and upper middle class that are over-extended will be crushed though.

I think it is an excellent idea to be debt-free, or to at least have assets enough to off-set any debt that might be called in. Also, you have to live somewhere. Owning a modest home is still a great asset especially during inflationary times.

I don't think it wise to sell your house and rent, and then use the money to buy physical gold. On the other hand, I do believe that after securing your home that it is prudent to buy a variety of precious metals and mining shares....
(06/04/2002; 10:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77443)
Real Estate Bubble.

Only one area of the economy stayed positive: housing starts/home sales. Here is the heaviest debt
load for consumers. Housing is basically a long-term consumer good, heavily funded by mortgages.
So, consumers have remained optimistic, long-term, but their employers have grown pessimistic at
least with respect to the short term.

Consumers believe that the housing market will always rise. They think, "buy now, pay later." They
think, "I can lock in low-interest fixed mortgage money today, and I'll pay it off with depreciated
dollars." This strategy has worked ever since 1946.

The credit markets are supplying this money to borrowers. The mortgage market is presumed to be
secured by the U.S. government, so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac keeps making available mortgage
money to borrowers. These enterprises are called GSE's or Government Sponsored Enterprises.

If mortgage holders think they can win at the expense of mortgage-issuers, why do people continue
to put their money into pools of long-term mortgages? Because they think these pools of capital are
government-guaranteed. They are looking for high returns short-term. They figure they can sell off
their holdings later if rates climb. They think they can protect themselves against both default
(because of a supposed government guarantee) and interest-rate risk (by selling to new buyers if
rates go up). They assume that their investment will be liquid forever.


There is a Web site devoted to warning the public about the risk to taxpayers from these GSE's: FM
Watch. It has warned against the massive increase in derivatives in the mortgage-based GSE's. It has
also warned against recent equity losses. The looming risk is gigantic: "the GSEs now guarantee more
debt and mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") than all comparable U.S. Treasury debt."

Since September 11, the nation has learned that risks once deemed improbable can
quickly become possible. With the nation in a recession, all financial institutions risk
being adversely affected but none more than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two
Government Sponsored Enterprises ("GSEs"). For years, the GSEs have been permitted
to operate on thin capital cushions built for best-of-times assumptions. The last few
months have underscored the riskiness of GSE excesses o and permitted GSE abuses
arising out of September 11. Recent developments are dramatic:

In the third quarter of 2001, the value of Fannie Mae's shareholder equity fell by $10.6
billion, a result of risky hedging in the derivatives market. Fannie Mae's debt/equity
ratio is now 53:1, five times more than the average for commercial banks. If Fannie Mae
were regulated like a commercial bank, it would face serious risk of closure.

In the week following September 11, the Federal Reserve extended credit of $81 billion
to ensure adequate liquidity in the markets. On September 14, Freddie Mac moved in
an entirely opposite � and counterproductive � direction, issuing $5 billion in two-year
notes that took cash out of the market. No other debt issuer did so because the
markets were loathe to buy private company debt during considerable market
instability. But Freddie Mac exploited its implied government guarantee to raise cheap
money from frightened investors at a time of national emergency. . . .

In recent years, the dramatic growth in GSE debt has significantly increased the risk to
U.S. taxpayers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased their debt six-fold since
1992, from $196 billion to $1.26 trillion in the third quarter of 2001. In a decade when
Treasury borrowing dropped dramatically, uncontrolled GSE debt was moving in the
opposite direction. Almost unbelievably, the GSEs now guarantee more debt and
mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") than all comparable U.S. Treasury debt.

This debt has been issued chiefly to fund a lucrative investment portfolio, which was
undertaken solely to grow profits for GSE shareholders. Here's how it works: the GSEs
borrow funds cheaply because of their implicit government guarantee, then invest
them. The above-market returns are highly profitable � but do nothing to increase
American homeownership. In 2000, both GSEs reported that this arbitrage investing
accounted for approximately 60 percent of their net income. That's like a local
government issuing a revenue bond to build a schoolhouse, then using part of the
money to play the stock market. If the GSEs bet right, their shareholders profit. If they
bet wrong, the U.S. taxpayer loses.

Compounding this debt growth, the GSEs are also leveraged far beyond what would
be permitted for other financial institutions. At year-end 2000, the GSEs' debt-to-equity
leverage for on-balance sheet liabilities was 30:1 versus 11:1 for commercial banks. If
the GSEs were to meet the standards imposed on commercial banks, they would need
to hold $82 billion in capital � or double their current amount. In their current
condition, the Federal Reserve would deem them "significantly under-capitalized" �
and they would face serious risk of closure. These institutions simply are woefully
undercapitalized � a situation that becomes more perilous during a recession.

The GSEs attempt to mitigate the risk associated with their debt through extensive
reliance on derivatives. From 1995 to 2000, the GSEs' derivatives exposure increased
over 400%. At the end of last year, the GSEs had $749 billion in such exposure. This is
a massive amount of derivatives exposure.

As stated above, recent events underscore the riskiness of a derivatives strategy. In
the third quarter of 2001, Fannie Mae reported a startling write-down of $10.6 billion in
shareholder equity, reducing its equity by 29 percent from where it stood just three
months earlier. Fannie Mae took a big position in the derivatives market and bet
wrong. As a result, Fannie Mae's debt/equity ratio shot up to 53:1. This approaches a
doubling of the GSEs' year-end 2000 leverage ratio of 30:1.


I don't think that Greenspan is worrying much about the stock market. If there is one area of the
economy that must get his attention, it is the mortgage market. The housing market kept the economy
from falling into even greater recession in 2001. This is because of the existence of what is perceived
as both safety and liquidity in the mortgage industry's GSE's. Huge pools of capital have been formed
to keep home buyers happy. I receive a bulk e-mail (spam) offer for cheap mortgage money every day.
This has been going on for at least a year. Investors perceive these markets as low-risk yet paying an
above-market rate of return. Borrowers perceive the debt as profitable: use the home now, see it
appreciate, and pay off the mortgage with cheaper dollars.

It is perceived as a win-win deal because of the presence of an assumed government guarantee. If this
guarantee if ever perceived by investors as an illusion that Congress cannot back up with money,
then the breakdown of the housing markets will be far worse than the S&L crisis of the mid-1980's.
Liquidity will disappear.

I think the FED is providing liquidity mainly to keep this market solvent. The problem is, the constant
increase in credit money continues to distort the capital markets. Eventually, monetary inflation will
produce price inflation. Long-term interest rates will then rise to compensate lenders for the expected
decline in the dollar's future purchasing power. Equity in mortgages already held by investors will fall.
There will be a derivatives-based, Enron-type event, on a scale vastly larger than Enron.

Congress worries about another Enron, yet its own policies are creating the biggest potential
Enron-type event in history.

Housing got through the recession of 2001 unscathed. Any time an investment market is perceived as
low-risk, capital flows into it. On the one hand, consumers are willing to borrow. On the other hand,
lenders are willing to lend long-term. Liquidity looks permanent. The win-win nature of the
arrangement is still widely perceived as low-risk. This is the classic mark of a bubble.

My friend John Schaub, who has spent his career in real estate investing, is convinced that we are
close to a housing market peak. If he is right, then the biggest bubble of all is looking not just toppy
buy poppy.


We are still in a repressed depression. The Federal Reserve System is still in inflationary mode. The
war against a free-market-based readjustment of capital values according to supply and demand with
monetary stability is still being conducted by the FED. No one in power wants to know what the
conditions of supply and demand would be in a world without monetary inflation. So, the
inflation-produced distortions in the capital markets are continuing, as usual. The dollar is still
depreciating. The annual increase in the median consumer price index jumped from 2% in December to
3.7% in January.

The war against the dollar's purchasing power will continue. When it comes to attaining a world
governed by free market pricing instead of monetary manipulation by a handful of central bank
bureaucrats, everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die.
bob leppo
(06/04/2002; 11:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77444)
real estate bubble the Fannie Mae signal
good discussion re a coming real estate slump. I speculate in many markets (currently long gold futures, short the Dow futures, and short the dollar index) and think the key re a real estate collapse is the price action of Fannie Mae common stock. It ran up a couple years ago from the 50's into a 75-85 range where it has stayed (currently 79). Fannie Mae seems to me way overvalued because of the high leverage (amount of mortgages owned comparred to equity)- the common equity would become worthless given any meaningful drop in national residential home prices and those prices will go down once Fannie Mae is no longer able to buy mortgages at their current enormous rate which in turn will happen once Fannie Mae's access to the debt market is reduced. Note that Alan Greenspan has publicly warned investors in Fannie Mae paper NOT TO ASSUME the government will bail out companies like Fannie Mae. I have tried shorting the stock but have decided to wait until Fannie Mae breaks below 75. Such a breakout on the downside is IMHO the best signal that the real estate bubble is rolling over. I expect to short the stock again FWIW.
(06/04/2002; 11:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77445)
testing password
Whaddaya know... it works!
(06/04/2002; 11:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77446)
Hoople and "All"....
Hoople...While housing is most certainly in a bubble, I would qualify that with if your property is self-sufficient and remote you shouldn't underestimate its desirability. My property is not for sale at any price. I know many others who feel the same way.

**Two things catch my sensibilities....'Self-sufficient' and 'Remote'....Those home ownership qualities are priceless and most would agree w/ your rationale....I definately do...

All.....Well everyone has to formulate and stick to a game plan once he or she has an educated opinion as to the future and this is a seemingly 'HOT' topic today but I'm going to bow out of carrying on and stay focused on Gold as I have enough trouble understanding the complexities and inter-relationships of so many governing factors in this what appears to be a Great Realignment or Day of Reckoning that we all percieve to be at the doorstep....Many thanks for responses and I continue to read and learn....

It's so great to have some new additions/minds throwing their thoughts and wide array of knowledge into the mix of the forum....Each day seems to get better since MK's last contest!!!!!
White Rose
(06/04/2002; 11:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77447)
Bush on Global Warming
There has been much speculation that the issue of global warming would come down to a massive legal battle between the energy industry (the responsible party) vs. the insurance industry (the pary that pays for all the storm damage).

So ... Bush administration issues a report that says "yes, there is global warming, yes, it is caused by human activity, but no, there is nothing that can be done to stop it".

This report is an attempt to shield the energy industry from future lawsuits, in the same way the cigarette warning shields the tobacco industry from anything but ancient lawsuits.

It is all about money and power. No wonder so many people are upset about it.

I invite Black Blade (with his fabulous web surfing abilities) to see what is behind this latest issue in the press.
(06/04/2002; 11:50:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77448)
The Hoople.....
A ..PS: if I may...I also want self sufficiency and some remoteness for future events, so as to have some measure of security for family...My search took two weeks and expenses from Yukon to SW Alberta...I found there, a dated but fully renovated 3 br, f/basement farm type home with barns etc and 200 acres for my Horses (grazing only) 2 wells and a creek w/ trout on property, and 1/4 acre garden...This lease costs $6000.00 p/yr and w/ 10 yr continuim...Now the local cost to buy this place would be from 300K to 450K...This cost of leasing without prop taxes or maintenence is a pittance to me...At some point in time (as prices are "Already dropping' in the year I've been here) I expect I will buy nearby for 1/2 to 2/3 the present costs maybe less...There are other places of this nature if one looks hard enough...For many tho the thought of relocating etc is overwhelming or not possible I realize...My point is most of us are looking for the same things only in different ways...BTW...I could ride a bicycle to the Rocky Mtns for the ultimate remoteness :>} I'm that close.....YGM
(06/04/2002; 11:57:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77449)
BOJ intervention to dampen a rising yen is but a temporary prop to the dollar YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it had no comment on whether or not the bank participated in any foreign exchange market intervention on behalf of Japan's Ministry of Finance.

"We do not comment on reports of interventions by other

U.S. traders reported that the Bank of Japan was buying dollars for yen on behalf of the ministry, prompting the dollar to rise.... This marked the fourth time Japan has intervened to cut the export-crimping strength of the yen in the past 2-1/2 weeks.

---------(click URL for full text)-------

Bottom line: Stan and Ollie.

(Laurel and Hardy, that is)

Call Centennial for a necessary gold diversification strategy.

(06/04/2002; 12:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77450)
Stan and Ollie revisited [Helpmates--1932]
Stan: "If I had any sense I'd walk out on you!"
Ollie: "Well, it's a good thing you don't!"
Stan: "It certainly is!"
(06/04/2002; 12:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77451)
L & H: Dollar surges as Bank of Japan sells yen YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - The dollar shot up by more than a full unit against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, as the Bank of Japan intervened for the fourth time in two weeks to weaken its currency.

...concern among Japanese officials that the yen's strength could douse a nascent economic recovery. "It...looks like they are serious. They want to drive (the dollar) higher," said Grant Wilson at Mellon Bank.

----(see URL for more of the show)-----
The Hoople
(06/04/2002; 12:46:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77452)
$6,000 annual lease for 200+ acres and improvements? You can't hardly lease a luxury automobile for that! Sounds like my kind of place. Water, food, heating fuel all at your disposal. Plenty of hiding places for all those CPM purchases. I remember after 9/11 all the New Yorkers scrambling to leave for Long Island and the Hamptons. Brief bidding wars sprang up for the choice secluded properties on the market. That gave me a clue what a real all-out war would do to rural enclaves.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/04/2002; 12:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77453)
Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

(06/04/2002; 13:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77454)
Gold at $400
CBSMarketWatch's Mike Maynard wrote an interesting piece today that suggested gold will move up to $400 within 12-18 months. Hope this story hasn't already been posted? Here's an exerpt:

On to $400?

But conditions in the currency market may be even more important a determinant for gold, according to market analyst Paul van Eeden of Global Resource Investments Ltd. in Carlsbad, Calif.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan intervened for the fourth time in three weeks in the currency market, a move designed to blunt recent gains made by the Japanese yen against the dollar.

While the dollar gained against the yen after the central bank's intervention, the euro gained more ground against the greenback. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign buyers.

Van Eeden said the dollar's safe-haven status has been undermined, noting that on a percentage basis gold's gains since the end of January have clearly outpaced the retreat in the dollar. This suggests that "gold is becoming attractive once again as a store of wealth," he said.

Van Eeden believes gold could change hands at $400 an ounce within 18 to 36 months.

Also on Nymex, July silver rose 4.5 cents to $5.125 an ounce, July platinum gained $5.60 to $553 an ounce, June palladium rose $1.55 to $354.30 an ounce, July aluminum tacked on 0.45 cent to 66.3 cents a pound and July copper advanced 1.05 cents to 78.6 cents a pound.
(06/04/2002; 13:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77455)
Explore convenient index for your use. (You can access this URL at any time by clicking the blue sky USAGOLD logo at the top of the forum).
Gandalf the White
(06/04/2002; 13:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77456)
Just returned from a NIGHT controlling the ORCS and what do I see --
THANKS for all the discussion from the NEW POSTERS !! YGM (06/04/02; 11:22:16MT - msg#: 77446)
--snip--- & "All"....
It's so great to have some new additions/minds throwing their thoughts and wide array of knowledge into the mix of the forum....Each day seems to get better since MK's last contest!!!!!
YES INDEED !! and now with Dr. BB on the USAGOLD Staff things can only get better and better. BUT remember, as I state in my educational classes, "There is no such thing as a DUMB QUESTION !" (Only DUMB ANSWERS from the unknowing "teachers" !)
Looks to me as if ANOTHER picture is coming into focus !

(06/04/2002; 13:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77457)
Bloomberg on investor movement into gold
New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a 4 1/2-year high, extending this year's rally to 18 percent, as investors sought an alternative to stocks and bonds.

Investors are buying gold in search of better returns and protection from a disruption to financial markets should India and Pakistan go to war. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has dropped 9 percent this year, while the 2-year Treasury note has returned 1.6 percent, including reinvested interest.

``Gold is an alternative if you're not happy with the stock market, and bond yields are fairly low,'' said Jay Mueller, who helps invest $45 billion in assets at Strong Capital Management in Milwaukee.

``The tension of conflict, such as in the Middle East and South Asia, also pushed investors to buy gold,'' said Koichiro Kamei, managing director of Market Strategy Institute Inc., a metals research company. ``The tension may damage economies and increase investment risk.''

Bottom line: Do you think that gold investing has reached Main Street U.S.A. yet? I think we have yet to see even the TIP of the iceberg, still just a ghostly shape through the mist.

(06/04/2002; 13:58:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77458)
Euro building base, comes at dollar's expense
HEADLINE: ECB's Duisenberg sees continued strength in demand

June 4 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg on Tuesday said...

"Looking ahead, available forecasts all paint a picture of a continued but slow strengthening in both domestic and foreign demand."
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 14:39:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77459)
Hewlett-Packard Co. In Trouble � Cuts 15,000 Jobs

BOSTON, June 4 (Reuters) - Hewlett-Packard Co. on Monday said it would cut jobs faster and slice costs deeper to wring more savings from its merger with Compaq Computer, and warned that the slump in technology spending was dragging on and would cut into sales in the current quarter. Chief Executive Carly Fiorina, meeting financial analysts for the first time since winning an eight-month battle to carry out the $18.7 billion merger, said the computer and printer maker would cut 15,000 jobs by November 2003, a year ahead of schedule.

Black Blade: The company announced no recovery this year and 15,000 employess are to go off to the growing "Bone Pile", even after AG stated that job cut announcements are slowing. Hmmm�

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 14:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77460)
Lawmaker wants detail from JP Morgan on Enron loans

WASHINGTON, June 3 (Reuters) - A Democratic lawmaker on Monday pressed for more details from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) about its role in transactions that may have allowed a subsidiary of Enron Corp. (OTC:ENRNQ.PK) to borrow $1 billion without the loans appearing on company balance sheets.

California Rep. Henry Waxman said he was not satisfied with the investment bank's explanation in a recent letter that the way the loan transactions were reported was up to Enron, not J.P. Morgan. J.P. Morgan's May 8 letter to Waxman said allegations "that the firm assisted Enron in disguising loans are baseless." Waxman wrote back to J.P. Morgan on Monday to say the investment bank had not answered his original questions sent to the firm in April about the transactions. "Your letter failed to address the most striking aspect of the loans ... namely, the fact that they allowed Enron to appear to repay its monthly obligations without any money seemingly changing hands," Waxman wrote.

He demanded a more detailed explanation from the investment bank by June 12. He released both his letter and J.P. Morgan's May 8 letter to the media.

Black Blade: JP Morgan Chase is in the hot seat. We could see some "interesting" developments as the congressional committee focuses in on the derivatives trades and off-shore shell companies.

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 14:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77461)
Capitulation Phase May Be Near - Investor Confidence Eroding≠wsletterid=736&menugroup=Home&aol=1

Last Wednesday we wrote a comment called "Market Top Looks Ominous", and today the market came crumbling down as the S&P 500 came all the way back to a level that it reached only eight trading days after the September bottom. Investor confidence, already shaken by the accounting scandals, was further shattered by the resignation of Tyco's CEO because of possible income tax evasion, the suicide of El Paso's Treasurer and the accusation that Williams companies tried to manipulate California's energy prices during last year's crisis. This came on a day when some analysts issued somewhat negative opinions on the software and chip stocks and Xylinx failed to make the optimistic statements that the Street expected. To make matters worse the front page of the Wall Street Journal featured an article outlining the negative effects of further weakening of the dollar.

Black Blade: The markets clawed their way back from deep negative territory (perhaps with a little help from their friends?). Someone apparently intervened in the currency markets in a big way today and there was a rumor that a truce between Pakistan-India. This rumor was later denied, however, it had already worked its way into the currency trades and the PM markets causing a strengthening in the USD and a pullback in Gold prices. Alan Greenspan gave a somewhat upbeat report on the US economy with some reservations. Nothing in the data suggests an economic recovery. Tomorrow is another day as London markets are back online and reality may set back in.

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 77462)
Corning To Cut 1,500 Jobs This Week

Just over the wire is that 1,500 Corning employees will be found on the growing "Bone Pile" by the end of this week. The so-called economic recovery is not doing much for US workers. As always, get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program with nonperishable food and basic necessities. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77463)
Off Market Intervention Hits Gold!
Though no trading market is open right now, it appears that there is big time intervention in the PM markets in an effort to push Gold lower. Currently Gold is lower by $4.10 an ounce. Remember there is no market open right now, so this appears to be institutional intervention. We shall have to see what develops.

- Black Blade
The Victorian
(06/04/2002; 15:10:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77464)
rumor or fact - italian CB selling gold ???
I read on another BB that the Italian Central Bank had made a statement about selling gold reserves. I am not sure if someone was saying that scenario MIGHT be the reason, or a similar event was probable in order to push down POG, or whether this is fact. If anyone finds out, please post. I just bought more HGMCY today and am now in a foul mood!!!
(06/04/2002; 15:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77465)
Their Dying Gasps
If this is the best they can do, then they are doomed!
Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 15:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77466)
I REALLY doubt the Italian CB would be selling gold. What is being sold after hours is PAPER. Where's the gold?
(06/04/2002; 15:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77467)
Floating ....yen...dollar....euro ?
What exactly does "currency-intervention" means ? When Japan sells yen for dollar...what is the yen buyer (US-?) going to do with those declining yen ? What if others sell those dollars for euro and counter the japanese dollar-rise with an euro induced/forced, dollar-decline ? Howhowwwww !
Is there a good soul out there to educate me on the mechanism(s) of currency-intervention(s) ? TIA.

What good is it to intervene, when the different dollar-exchanges have already turned around into a declining *trend* for the dollar ? How can (concerted-US/Japan) intervention stop and reverse a fresh declining trend after 7 years of dollar-rise ? The more that the third euro-player wants to have his saying in this (�/$ parity to encourage � expansion) ?

Does Euroland (or the world's non dollar block) still needs an artificial high dollar-exchange rate, with the US-economy, significantly in structural contraction (cfr. falsifications) ?

Yes, they can make the dollar-decline have a temporary pauze, without trend change. Good for what or who ?
Once the financial brotherhood smelled the blood, you can't stop them storming for currency-trade profits.

IMO, intervention can only work (change things) when all parties clap with both hands and agree in mutual interest.
Than the financial hyenas have to back off or risk burning their fingers, sorry, confetti.
A rising dollar makes it impossible for the pound to join EMU on the right sterling/euro exchange rate. Conflict !?

Is the US still happy with a strong dollar and therefore a continued increasing trade-deficit ? A strong dollar "WAS" OK when the dollar-block was increasingly trading (expanding) with the rest of us. GNP growth figures seem to suggest otherwise and low interest rates plus strong dollar do cultivate the enormous debt-burden into a giant heavyweight, never, never, ever to be redeemed (not even the rent of it) ! A real catch 22 situation, what explains what is ment by the dollar suffocating under its own weight.

A probable modest retreat for POG is yet another excellent buying opportunity for the yellow. Or are Dr. No and Hung Fat (Sinclair/Shultz) having enough force to pay for the luxury of having another opinion and push POG higher in the rise and exposure of its Real Value ?

Thoughts on the outcome of this currency-play-intervention, wellcomed enthousiastically. TIA.

Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 15:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77468)
Lads: Expect volatility at this stage of the game which is almost UP for the other side of the fence.
(06/04/2002; 15:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77469)
Re: Gold price and Italian "rumor"
Another gold site, known for its forum food fights, is showing spot market is open, as they do daily at this time. We are seeing the volatility many of us have expected. Naturally some intervention, some profit taking, some fleeing on the Italian rumor. Two points: 1) Of course Italy will sell, as part of the Washington Agreement they have already agreed to limited sales. The Swiss just did it more quietly. 2)Any intervention in NY after hours activity has recently been countered by buying support, in most cases. Intervention may try to counter tomorrow's upward pressure- expected to increase with the return of London trading after the long weekend, & short covering, momentum traders, newly encouraged longs, producer hedge buybacks, and other funds.
Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 15:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77470)
So, you thought it would be easy? Stay long and stay tuned. It is going to be worse/better than '79 depending upon your position. Take care...CM
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77471)
After Hours Gold Trades

The remaining question is "what exchange does Gold trade on afetr NY closes and before Sydney Opens?" Somoa maybe?

- Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77472)
Desperation ad Nauseum!!!
Myself I'm Just Smilin!They been hammering all nite and all day..Imagine the paper dumped to drive spot from a high of $330.00 to $323.00 with all the positives in the market (meaning buyers galore)...
These clowns have been given absolution from on high to do whatever it takes to get the price back to managable levels you can be sure!! The paper Gold market is just one big hilarious joke!! Only thing is it won't be so funny for many when one of the big market manipulators bites the bullet cause the house of 'Paper' is going to take others with it. Shareholders, other Bullion Banks and Wall St are all in the Domino line up...I'll bet the Physical market will be made to appear short of Yellow til the price hikes again, now that every Gold Dealer knows the game is rigged and demand is there!! Another 'Buying opportunity' for us poor folk :>}
(06/04/2002; 15:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77473)
@Cavan Man
"Where's the gold?" That's true, the gold will not be sold on the open market. Most or all Central Bank "sales" appear to be swaps between themselves. A prearranged buyer may get a paper certificate of receipt and a digital entry or gold that has no market impact.
(06/04/2002; 15:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77474)
Greenspan's comments

Apparently, Fed. Chairman Greenspan's comments today helped the markets gain slightly before closing. In my opinion, this is the same man who was partly (largely?) responsible for our economy's great decline starting in early 2000 when he repeatedly increased interest rates to "beat inflation" (which didn't exist at the time). Does anyone else get angry when they read this master of double-speak's remarks?:

"I suspect the American economy is in an upswing; it's not going to be a dramatic upswing, it can't" Greenspan said Tuesday, adding that the economy isn't likely to match the first-quarter's 5.6 percent annual growth rate.

Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 15:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77475)
@ Black Blade
Close. It is New Zealand I believe.
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:42:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77476)
Push On After Hours POG

It has been suggested that the line of resistence to where the gold shorts "go under for the third time" was at about $330.00/oz. Perhaps this is the actual "line in the sand" that must be vigorously defended at all costs or some big major players suffer horrific losses. Just speculation of course, but it does fit some observations.

- Black Blade

Anyway, off to the gym. Maybe some news will come to light by the time I return.
(06/04/2002; 15:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77477)
My Best Guess that Midway Island "Gold exchange," decided to sell a couple of Gold Eagles.
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:46:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77478)
Re: Cavan Man

New Zealand? That would be interesting. A major player (or several) heading them off at the pass so to speak? Maybe to hit Gold in a thinly traded exchange in order to set market direction. A psychological ploy? Who knows. A lot to think about here.

Gotta go.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 15:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77479)
Oil Inventory Builds

The API reports that Oil inventories increased by 6.3 billion bbl. Oil prices are down 48 cents. Not likely to impact Gold much, so there must be another reason here.

- Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 16:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77480)
A plausable explanation.....???
Berlusconi, Italian media-tycoon and Euroland dissonant, at the dollar's (and his private) service !? A Welteke stunt to help the dollar interventionists ? Another episode in the Gold drama of short or longer duration ?

This type of repetitive Gold maneuvering will only result in renewed and stronger/broader, attention/commitment, to Gold's cause ! Not per s� a negative in the somewhat longer run (rocksolid fundamentals). Mineprofits into the Physical ad repetitum !!!
(06/04/2002; 16:47:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77481)
Bullion Banks
IMHO The Bullion banks have told the Central Banks "You need to lend me more gold,or you may never get back what I owe you!
The Bullion banks are going to try to trade thier way to getting back the Gold they owe.Central banks will lend them more gold for this activity.I believe that at the end of one year the Central banks will have thier gold back,the Bullion banks will be out of business having taking the country and Central Banks to the brink of disaster.Over the next year they will try to get as much gold from the market place as possible using ADDITIONAL gold loans from the Central banks to gyrate the market prices in order to trade thier way out.Trading is what Bullion banks do ,therefore they must trade thier way out.
As a gold bug "buy the dips ",theres going to be plenty of them.
(06/04/2002; 17:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77482)
Don't mess with the tax man Business Report
Ex-Tyco CEO Indicted on Sales Tax Evasion

By Philip Klein and Jeanne King

NEW YORK (Reuters) - L. Dennis Kozlowski, who lived large as he raked in nearly a half billion dollars as chief of Tyco International Ltd., on Tuesday was charged with dodging $1 million in sales taxes on paintings by such

A day after his stunning resignation as head of embattled conglomerate Tyco (NYSE:TYC - News), Kozlowski was arraigned in a New York criminal court and accused of scheming to avoid paying sales tax on more than $13 million in artwork he bought over the last nine months.

Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau charges that Kozlowski, 55, conspired with unnamed art dealers and Tyco employees to dodge an 8.25 percent sales tax by making it look as though paintings that he purchased in New York were shipped to Tyco offices in Exeter, New Hampshire.

The indictment says he accomplished this in some cases by instructing Tyco employees to sign bogus invoices that would show the receipt of the paintings in New Hampshire.

"For somebody who was highly paid, to fail to pay over $1 million in sales taxes is a serious crime," Morgenthau said. "Over the years, there has been too much winking at this kind of activity, and we don't intend to wink."

In mid-December, the indictment charges Kozlowski went so far as to have five empty cardboard boxes shipped to Tyco offices in the place of the paintings, which included work by impressionist master Claude Monet, valued at $8.8 million.

Investors will be reassured that evil CEO's are being purged. Everyone can now go back in the water, no more sharks. Al Capone move over, we have a new mafia. I'm expecting to see a St. Valentines type massacre on Wall Street coming soon.
(06/04/2002; 17:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77483)
A helping hand for Sir Black Blade (msg#: 77463)
I read with interest your 5:04pm Eastern Time message entitled "Off Market Intervention Hits Gold!" You said, "there is no market open right now, so this appears to be institutional intervention."

I don't want to find myself in a position of second-guessing you, but you might want to tuck this away in your box of tools for future use.

The New York Mercantile Exchange offers after-hours trading of their standard COMEX Gold futures contracts through their ACCESS program. It opens for trade at 3:15pm Eastern Time and runs through the night until 20 minutes before standard COMEX trade begins again each morning.

So as you might now imagine, at the time of your post the situation you've described could as likely be explained as the effects of private paper longs having had nearly two hours to show how small their hands really are.

Or... maybe these parties are simply (and wisely) stepping out from under the shadow of the piano?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/04/2002; 17:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77484)
Horatio, it won't be so easy at that for the bullion banks
You suggested, "Over the next year they will try to get as much gold from the market place as possible using ADDITIONAL gold loans from the Central banks."

Item 4 of the Central Bank Agreement on Gold (Washington Agreement) effectively shuts off this avenue. They boldly wrote and posted the new Rules of the Game. How else does an institution insulate itself from what would otherwise be unimaginable political pressure?

Stepping toward Free Gold.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/04/2002; 17:26:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77485)
Get out of Debt, pay cash and Buy the Dips
You had better have a strong stomach if you are going to stay in the gold markets !The Central banks are making additional loans to the Bullion banks ,gold that they can use to gyrate the markets with as they try to trade thier way out!
Youe emotions will will be on a Rollar Coaster for the next year.In my opinion ,if you are on margin or options trading,thay are going to take you to the cleaners.Thats where they will get thier gold back from.The Bullion banks are really traders and they need volitilty to skim thier markets.
I believe the Central banks are making additional GOLD loans to them so they can trade thier way out.They now have the ability to gyrate these markets.At the end of all this the Central banks will have thier gold back and the Bullion banks will be gone.In the mean time pay cash ,get out of debt,buy the dips and go fishing,get away from the gyrations that are sure to happin.
(06/04/2002; 17:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77486)
Aristotle Rules ?
Since when do greedy people follow the rules?When did that start? I suggest Italian and Swiss gold may be lent to them,are they covered by U.S. Rules? If that won't work how about starting a War in India forcing them to disgorge thier gold in order to pay for a War.They forced Argentina out of thier gold..Nothing is beyond the realm of possibility when they need to repay gold they don't have.War ,Revolution or simply taking advantage of those in debt to squeeze them out of gold or money to get gold with.Hence my suggestion to get out of debt,don't margin your gold stocks or option trade them.Thats thier vehicle to getting your gold and shaking it loose from you.Don't play thier game they are masters at it.
(06/04/2002; 18:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77487)
Gold Mining Outlook?

What's wrong with this picture? An off-beat newsletter, "Gold Mining Outlook," today advised readers to sell their gold now. Has anyone ever heard of the newsletter's editor, Steven Jon Kaplan, or tracked his advice to determine whether he knows what he's talking about? Here's what Kaplan had to say:

"SUMMARY: SELL YOUR GOLD MINING SHARES!!! My current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has deteriorated to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, the first time that such a stance has been justified since I began this online newsletter. Many junior gold mining shares are now trading at the same levels that they were in the mid-1990s, when the gold price itself was above $400 per ounce, and many of these companies are still losing money. Those which are actually making a profit are selling at P/E ratios typical of the Nasdaq in its heyday. Speculative juniors have been far outperforming their senior counterparts in recent weeks, as is typical of any market near the top of a bubble. Just because the gold share bubble is not quite as exaggerated as the Nasdaq was in March 2000 doesn't mean that it isn't a bubble all the same. Brokerages are generally very positive toward gold mining shares, continually raising their price targets, and even those who are supposedly bearish on gold are using phrases such as "fully valued at current levels," fearful of looking foolish by actually predicting a price drop, which is again typical of any bubble, when bears are afraid to be bears. Besides myself, there is not a single gold analyst�not one--willing to state definitively on the record that the price of gold is going below $300 per ounce, even though such a decline would be a mere 10% move, whereas many analysts are speaking publicly of $350, $400, and higher. Speculative call buying on gold mining shares, traders� commitments on gold and on currencies which correlate with the gold price, insider selling by gold mining executives, insider issuance of new shares (Newmont, Harmony, Goldcorp, Agnico-Eagle, Echo Bay), and investor bullishness (now 86% on gold itself according to Market Vane, 100% on gold funds according to Investors� Intelligence) are at even higher levels than at the February 1996 peak, and are surpassed only by the January 1980 super-euphoria. The kind of bubble which happened in 1979 can only occur in the late stages of a gold bull market; it is very likely that the HUI index of gold mining shares will be at current or even lower levels eight or nine years from now, before such a final bubble is ready to occur. Commercials are likely net short more than 90 thousand contracts of COMEX gold. Physical demand for gold has dropped more than 20% in many areas, including South Asian imports and professional jewelry orders, which are critical to sustaining a gold price above $300."
Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 18:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77488)
When are those guys going to start working a full day? They do have a FEW tons to sell.
(06/04/2002; 18:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77489)
Horatio, "RotG" is common phrase dating back to the dutiful adherence to international settlements pre-WWI
It can be argued that the widespread stability of monetary structures at that time were due to a single-minded focus on playing by those "Rules."

However, that was doomed to fade in time as democratic populations found greater footing in the power of the vote -- pressing governments to sacrifice the rigid rules (i.e., fixed international currency exchange rate) in favor of domestic favors (i.e., exchange flexibility for beggar-thy-neighbor attempts at fuller employment through export advantages.)

All of that notwithstanding, in your post to me are you, in fact, telling me that September 26, 1999 was an idle hoax? That 15 Central Banks came together and produced a meaningless document -- a kind of perversion from too much time on their hands?

I'm listening, but I'm havin' a hard time buyin' what you're sellin!

I do, however, agree largely with one of your earlier conclusions to the *approximate* effect that in the end the Central Banks will have "their" Gold and the Bullion Banks will move on to other activities.

Freeeeeee Goooooooold! Have you anything to add to this, Sir Belgian?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Carl H
(06/04/2002; 18:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77490)
Off hours trading
I suspect the comment below about this being an act of desparation to TRY to set market direction is correct. I am sure the Japanese Housewives will use it as an opportunity to by more...
(06/04/2002; 18:27:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77491)
Regarding Gold mining outlook...
I wonder if this guy (Kaplan) will issue an "extra special extremely bearish outlook" in his next newsletter. I've been tracking his predictions since last summer and he seems to be increasing the tenor of his bearish (wrong) calls on gold with each update. Comparing this move in gold to the nasdaq bubble is absurd. I think he may either have a hidden agenda or has a problem admitting that he has been wrong.
(06/04/2002; 18:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77492)
This Kaplan Guy
If memory serves me correctly, he posts next door @Kitco off and on and was flaunting a bunch of gold calls that he wrote a month or two back (late fall 2002 expiration). Said he just couldn't pass up the premium and was selling as many as people would buy and ridiculing the buyers.

He's so far underwater right now, and thinks he has a following, that he'll probably write anything to try to get out of these positions.

Gandalf the White
(06/04/2002; 19:14:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77493)
Sir Pizz --- Re: the other Kaplan !
--- I do believe that there is an age difference between the one at Kitco and the one that periodically writes this webpage. It just goes to show that someone is not always correct like you and I.
PS: what happened at the BOARD meeting ?
(06/04/2002; 19:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77494)
Think the Banks aren't sweating it out???
Did a house refi/debt consolidation last month to reduce bills and tap my equity while it's still available at low rates.

Took the bank 7 working days to close - must have been a record. Rather than pay my listed obligations directly (like they used to), they just dumped the cash into my checking account and told me I could pay my creditors at my leisure.

Today I tried to wire money out to my brokerage account, which was a repeat wire that they had on file, and 1/2 hour before wire cut off time, they called and said their wire department could not confirm the recipient account and wanted me to confirm it, but they could not promise the wire would be sent today. The bank branch is one block from my office, and after a very strongly worded chat with the Manager (in person), guess what? There was no account problem and my wire was sent.

Also, in our business, we take large personal checks for purchases. At times, when we have less than credit worthy customers, we take the checks to the customers banks and have cashiers checks made out to the company while the funds are still there, rather than take chance on depositing the check and having something else clear before our check. In the last two months, nearly every bank in the NW will not do this any more - UNLESS WE OPEN A BUSINESS ACCOUNT SO THEY CAN TRANSFER THE FUNDS INTO OUR ACCOUNT AT THEIR BANK.

Cash must be at a premium, because the banks sure don't seem to want to part with it easily.

Money, get you some, and the shinier the better.


Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 19:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77495)
Coming to your town soon......
Reserve Bank of Australia Increases Key Rate to 4.75% (Update3)
By Victoria Batchelor

Sydney, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the second time in a month, boosting it a quarter percentage point to cool a housing boom and consumer spending that may fuel inflation.

Governor Ian Macfarlane and his board raised the overnight cash target rate to 4.75 percent. All 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected the rise, and the median forecast is for the rate to climb to 5.25 percent by year's end.

It comes just hours before a government report is expected to show gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. That would be the fastest annual growth in almost three years. The inflation rate is 2.9 percent, near the bank's 3 percent ceiling, and Macfarlane said it may accelerate next year.

Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 19:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77496)
Poor Japan.....
.....without exports they're doomed. Japan's 1st-Quarter Capital Spending Falls 5.2% (Update2)
By Yoshiko Matsushita

Tokyo, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese companies spent less on factories and equipment in the first quarter, suggesting that a recovery from the third recession in a decade isn't assured.

Capital spending by companies, excluding banks, insurers and other financial firms, fell 5.2 percent from the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted, the Ministry of Finance said. From a year earlier, it fell 16.8 percent following the fourth quarter's 14.5 percent decline.

The world's second-largest economy probably grew 1.5 percent in the first quarter after shrinking for three quarters as exports and consumer spending rose, according to a Bloomberg survey. Still, business spending could put the brakes on a rebound.

Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 19:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77497)
PPOG (Paper Price of Gold)
PPOG is really jumping around eh?
(06/04/2002; 19:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77498)
Sir Cavan Man "COMEX...They do have a FEW tons to sell."
Contrary to popular perception, COMEX actually doesn't have an ounce to sell.

And what of all that Registered and Eligible "inventory" present on the books of the licensed depositories -- Scotia Mocatta, HSBC, and Brinks? Not an ounce of it belongs to the Exchange.

It is entirely possible at any given time that some of the Eligible ounces people might see listed at Scotia, Honkers & Shankers or at Brinks is actually my own property, completely unavailable to COMEX participants.

How is this possible? If I happen to have kilo bars in temporary safe storage at those institutions, say, in the process of conversion/exchange for the extra safety (and a potential premium play) on European oldies, then they are listed among the "Eligible" inventory of those institutions. This doesn't signify that the Exchange owns it, but rather that it meets the specs for delivery in satisfaction of a standard Contract and is "Eligible" (as opposed to "Registered") in the sense that I haven't had it officially parceled and registered into standard delivery "warrants."

When my favorite Gold broker ("Hi, guy!") tells me that my Swiss Gold francs and German Gold marks have arrived on his end of the deal, orders are given by each of us for an exchange of our forms of gold.

Now pay attention here. If his account is with an institution outside of the COMEX triumvirate, then the level of their Eligible inventory will fall as Brinks hauls my kilo bars away, replacing them with a form of Gold that is off the radar screen -- coins do not match the standard spec for delivery against a contract, and thus are not listed among Eligible inventory.

Eventually, this Gold coin leaves NY as I bring it closer to home, but prior to that, and at all points whether in the form of kilo bars or coins, it remained my property and was never the Exchange's to sell. The Exchange merely matches (anonymously) a paper long against a paper short, and should it come down to delivery issues in those rare cases, all eyes look to the short to deliver the Gold through a warrant, the exchange of which is done through the auspices of the Exchange and its licensed "depositories." (Again, these are depositories of other people's Gold.)

But this rarely happens because true commercial interests don't move their Gold through the Exchange, showing up merely to hedge cashflow. And the big speculators? They're in it for cash. And the little speculators? They exhaust their resources on the margins, and can't afford to stand for delivery for the full bodied contracts they theoretically represent. (There's an exception, but that shall remains the topic of another post.)

So as you can see, in a crisis of confidence in paper and counterparties, it is more likely to see a SELLOFF of America's form of Gold Benchmark (that is, the COMEX Gold Contract) rather than a price runup. Then, out of discredit the market's attention will shift to the phsical Gold market where the price (premium??) will break free from the dying paper proxy.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/04/2002; 19:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77499)
Gandalf the White
My apology to either or both of the Kaplan's for the confusion, BUT IMHO, one is off base with the newsletter, and the other is probably still underwater on his calls (smile).

Ahh, the board meeting(s). . . .rumor had it that the CFO (me) was just about ready to walk (wonder where that started???). My CEO, a notorious yeller and screamer, was a bit on the passive side, especially when I justifiably let loose with a little of my Scotch-Irish, German, and Sicilian temperment.

The bottom line to them was that they had to either start making money or quit spending what we don't have on acquisitions and expansions, cut marketing expenses rather dramatically, and properly capitalize the companies we do have. If we don't, our finance company will be sitting in my offices opening the mail.

I think I got their attention since I reminded them of their personal guarantees, but so far the only action has been for me to slide our payables out to 90 days rather than 25. I don't think I'm the only CFO doing the same thing.

Our vendors are starting to scream already.

Cash is real tough to come by right now - everywhere.

Hope to post a bit more, now that I'm taking a DGAS attitude, been some good stuff on the board the last week.


Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 19:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77500)
Re: Aristotle, Jimbo, Jack, Pizz, etc.

Aristotle � Thanks, I had forgot all about "Access" trading - silly me. I guess that the institutional trading may be the principal reason for running the markets in after the regular Comex trading hours. I notice that the POG has rebounded some as well. I have always been suspicious of thinly traded markets as they are not usually open to the general public during regular hours and can be used to artificially set market sentiment prior to or after trading on major exchanges. I should have remembered about Access trading though. Again thanks and keep up the good work.

Jimbo, Jack, and Pizz � I always wondered why someone like SJ Kaplan would place his bets on COTs and ignore the big picture of the world around him. I notice that he does not relate his prognostications to possible rising interest rates, threat of war, US dollar weakness, etc. However, he has been "Bearish", "Significantly bearish", "Strongly Bearish", and "Very Strongly Bearish" (maybe even "Double Extreme Bearish" for all I know) during the majority of this multi-month Gold rally. One must look at every possible variable and come to judgment of how market "might" react under current and possible near term conditions. I remember when he also called for people to short ebay and in the midst of the bubble. Anyone who had followed that advice would have been in the poor house in no time. Sure they were overvalued stocks trading in a speculative bubble, however, no one has consistently been able to time the markets. Cheers!

- Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 19:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77501)
Superpower [Read USA] Retreat: Bowing to N-blackmail [From Pakistan][...The message is loud and clear to other potential rogue states that if they could clandestinely acquire nuclear weapons, then the US and the rest of the international community would keep off. It would confirm the potent role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

The western leaders praised General Musharraf for more than four months for his speech of January 12, 2002 and his commitment to stop cross-border terrorism. Then, on May 31, 2002 they spoke about the possibility of an Indo-Pak war consequent upon the continuing cross-border terrorism. In other words, the sole superpower and its allies were not able to prevail upon Pakistan to abide by its commitment and invoke Security Council resolution 1373 (which mandates states not to support terrorism).

Further, Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and the leadership cadres of the Al-Qaida and the Taliban are today in Pakistan and regrouping their forces. In spite of Pakistan being an ally of the US, the terrorists were able to move from Afghanistan to Pakistan in November-December 2001 before the Indo-Pak border stand-off began and while the Pakistani army fully manned the Afghan border.

Out of 22 leaders of the Al-Qaida, only two are accounted for. Most of the high profile operations of the elite US and British forces on Afghan-Pakistan border have been futile.
The US vice-president and the director of FBI have asserted that new terrorist threats are inevitable and cannot be stopped. Yet, they seem oblivious of the fact that today the epicentre of terrorism is Pakistan, from where the Al-Qaida is busy plotting new attacks on the US.

The Al-Qaida used to proclaim that they had defeated one superpower (the Soviet Union) and they would surely defeat the second (the US). The US's current indulgent behaviour towards Pakistan would appear to validate their claims.
A slap in the face from India to the US strategy in Afganistan/Pakistan.

It makes valid points regarding the failure to identify and neutralize Pakistan terror targets because they constitue...well...most of Pakistan.

The only strategy that makes sense is the one that has India as our secret hit man against Pakistan. They move in from the East, we move to block the baddest guys from the West. Only time will tell on this one.

All those troups...just sitting around...playing cards...eating food...getting bored. Is there to be a war?

Check with Mahendra.
Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 20:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77502)
Thanks for the lesson. We're in complete agreement. I was trying (in vain) to be a little funny. Comex like the NYSE (IMHO) is a freak show. I always ask myself; self: WWBGD (what would ben graham do?)
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 20:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77503)
Crisis looms as demand booms for natural gas

While public worry tends to focus on supplies of crude oil and pump prices at gasoline stations, the real gas problem could be brewing in natural gas. Experts say falling U.S. production and the difficulties involved in getting new supplies from North America or abroad could make for a severe supply crunch at worst or highly volatile prices at best for the next several years.

Worries for consumers

The best evidence for this is what happened during the winter of 2000-01, when short supplies drove prices up from their long-term average of about $2.25 per Mcf to more than $10 per Mcf at one point in January 2001. Driven by those extraordinary prices, drilling surged: According to oil-field supply company Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for gas nearly tripled from a low of 362 in April 1999 to a peak of 1,068 in July 2001. "The entire industry knew: I drill gas wells, I get rich," says Mark Papa, chairman of EOG Resources, a large independent gas producer. "A huge effort was put in place to drill gas wells." But despite that effort, gas production barely budged. From 18.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1999, domestic gas production crept up to 19.4 Tcf in 2001 � a 3% increase.

"What in the world explains why you had to double gas well completions just to stay flat?" asks Matthew Simmons, chairman of energy investment bank Simmons & Co. "I think we're in very scary shape." Analysts are alarmed by the fact that gas wells peter out much more quickly now than they used to, thanks to technology that lets producers drain reservoirs more quickly and the fact that reservoirs tend to be smaller.

Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan fretted about this phenomenon in a November 2001 speech, noting that new wells now give up 50% of their recoverable reserves in the first year of operation vs. 25% in the 1980s. As the economy recovers, Greenspan said, burgeoning gas demand "will be putting significant pressure on the reserve base."

Supply crunch coming

Add a recovering economy, the chance of a hot summer or a cold winter, and the fact that strapped electrical utilities have turned to gas-fired plants to add enormous generating capacity that will compete for gas supplies, and pessimists see a serious gas crunch coming. Papa says forecasts show U.S. gas production falling 4% this year and demand whittling down the record amounts of gas in underground storage by the beginning of the heating season Nov. 1. That could lead to a supply crunch in both the USA and Canada by next year, he says.

Simmons says the crunch could show up even sooner. "You have this unbelievable mountain of new power plants that assumed there would be plentiful natural gas," he says. But when prices fell back from $10 per Mcf in January 2001 to $2-$3 per Mcf last summer, drilling collapsed. "We're going to pay a painful price for that by the third or fourth quarter."

Black Blade: This is a very good article and it presents the possible coming supply crunch just as I have described here for quite some time. Natural gas is the real sleeper in the energy equation and is easily overlooked as everyone's attention is focused on oil and gas prices. I still believe that we could be setting ourselves up for a supply crunch late this year or early next year. Natural gas storage is larger but that is due to more storage available (it also includes "working" and "cushion" gas). Roughly only about half the new excess NG in storage is immediately useable. There are also several more new NG-fired power generating facilities in the US. Virtually every new power plant is natural gas fired due to its desired clean-burning/environmentally friendly qualities. Unfortunately we have nothing to fall back on when supply does not keep up with demand. We could easily write off any long awaited economic recovery as without energy we are dead in the water. Energy is the lifeblood of any economy � without it the economy dies.
(06/04/2002; 20:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77504)
C-Man "What would Ben Graham do?"
Well, if I missed your humor in the first go-round, I can surely find it here.

Saddly, I don't imagine ol' Ben is buying any Gold these days, but on the up side, he sure ain't sellin' any, either!

I, on the other hand, would ask myself, "Self, WWLGD?" (what would Lou Gramm do?)

Probably he'd look at the Gold market, then the international -- "Foreigner" -- scene, and then sing his band's 1981 classic, "Urgent."

Gold. Get you some as Lou would do. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 20:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77505)
NYMEX Trading Rules � Gold are some of the NYMEX Rules for Gold (for now):

NYMEX Trading � Gold

Trading Hours

Futures and Options: Open outcry trading is conducted from 8:20 A.M. until 1:30 P.M.

After-hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCESS� internet-based trading platform beginning at 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 A.M. the following day. On Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time.

Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation

Futures: Initial price limit, based upon the preceding day's settlement price is $75 per ounce. Two minutes after either of the two most active months trades at the limit, trades in all months of futures and options will cease for a 15-minute period. Trading will also cease if either of the two active months is bid at the upper limit or offered at the lower limit for two minutes without trading.

Trading will not cease if the limit is reached during the final 20 minutes of a day's trading. If the limit is reached during the final half hour of trading, trading will resume no later than 10 minutes before the normal closing time.

When trading resumes after a cessation of trading, the price limits will be expanded by increments of 100%.

Options: No price limits.

Last Trading Day

Futures: Trading terminates at the close of business on the third to last business day of the maturing delivery month.

Options: Expiration occurs on the second Friday of the month prior to the delivery month of the underlying futures contract. Beginning with the expiration of the December 2002 contract, options will expire on the fourth business day prior to the end of the month preceding the options contract month. If the expiration day falls on a Friday or immediately prior to an Exchange holiday, expiration will occur on the previous business day.

(06/04/2002; 20:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77506)
Central bank double cross?
Something just occurred to me as i watched the blatant after market,(thus no support),dip in p.o.g. Sometimes i have assumed that all the big banks were in on this,but wait a minute!What about greed ,what if a smaller bank was buying up this gold,or suddenly decided to become number one they could buy gold and sit,using it against any fiat debt/liabilities.Thus when the crash hit and their bigger brother banks are falling hard,they will not only rise,they will be the only ones standing,literally holding a huge portion of the worlds wealth and trust?

Frankly at this point they have become desperate and every time they drive down,more is bought.Why?Because people know a bargain,and soon they will recognize the value.I believe at some point a major player(Bank) will come along and knock this one past 354,knowing full well,they will be tipping the scales on the cabal.There's a renegade in every crowd,as soon as one breaks the ranks,the rest will fall in the wake.Oh well,there is more of us than them!

Conclusion:This thing is wound so tight a fly could set it off.Its not when will gold go up,its more like how much more bad news is coming??!!!?
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 20:48:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77507)
Nuclear rivals exchange insults

The war of words between India and Pakistan took a dramatic and highly personal turn yesterday as the first encounter in months between their leaders degenerated into an angry slanging match.

An Asian summit in the city of Almaty in Kazakhstan provided an ideal opportunity for President Pervaiz Musharraf of Pakistan and Atal Behair Vajpayee, India's prime minister, to talk peace. They used it instead to trade insults.

Hopes that President Putin of Russia might mediate and avert the threat of nuclear conflict faded as it became clear that Gen Musharraf and Mr Vajpayee were more interested in hurling abuse at one another.

Black Blade: How anyone deduced a rumor of a truce is beyond me. Sounds like a prelude to war � maybe nuclear war.

Cavan Man
(06/04/2002; 20:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77508)
Now, that's, "Takin Care of Business"! I understand Mssr. Bachman's house has a gift shop in the foyer. Think I'll let it "Ride, Ride Ride...."
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 21:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77509)
Market Wrap Up (Puplava � The Other One)

It Looks Like WAR! to Me

It's been my task to create the graph-of-the-day. When I searched today's news, I picked Kitco's 24-hour gold graph. Why? Because it blatantly shows the battle for gold. Notice the second graph which shows gold's price in Hong Kong, London, and New York. What happened after the close? Well, I'm not an expert, but I can tell you that after living with Jim and being educated with building our Precious Metals page, that someone, somewhere, has declared war on gold. The scuttlebutt in the chat rooms is that commercial banks with heavy derivatives and highly-hedged companies are in real trouble with the rising price of gold. Of course, I typed The Perfect Financial Storm and Storm Watch Updates. I know what Jim thinks! First: gold and silver have been in a twenty-year bear market, second: in times of uncertainty, people seek a safe haven, and third: rogue traders are betting on the wrong side. It's my educated guess that pros and peons alike think today's economy is a bit unstable.

Black Blade: Jim Puplava's wife pounds the keyboard tonight. A couple of "interesting" gold graphs at the top of the page. Maybe it is war.

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 21:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77510)
The weakest link
Commentary: Weak job growth threatens recovery


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A dearth of new jobs and, consequently, a large number of people out of work, are threatening the nascent economic recovery. While the unemployment rate and payroll numbers do tend to lag behind the rest of the economy, they are droopier than usual, this time around. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits now stands at a 19-year high.

Black Blade: The economic recovery is far from certain � so larger growth in the "Bone Pile" is likely.

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 21:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77511)
IBM Fires 1,500 U.S. Chip Workers, Realigns Division∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APPzgAxPESUJNIEZp

Armonk, New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- International Business Machines Corp. fired 1,500 U.S. workers in its unprofitable Microelectronics unit and will realign the division to help climb out of a sales slump, a spokesman said.

Black Blade: These "Bones" are just "chips" of the old block, now headed for the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 21:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77512)
Who Gains From The Dollars Pain?

"From a manufacturer's point of view, the dollar was 25 to 30 percent overvalued," said Frank Vargo, international vice president at the National Association of Manufacturers. "It's cost us a lot in exports, which have fallen $140 billion [on an annual basis], largely as result of the dollar."

U.S. manufacturers, who fell into a deep recession after businesses abruptly stopped spending money last year, have cried long and loud for policy makers to intervene and bring the dollar down. They haven't had much luck getting the U.S. Treasury Department to act against the dollar, but other forces may now be doing the job, which will tend to push their sales and earnings higher.

Manufacturers and some analysts have said a weaker dollar will spur greater production, hiring and business spending, which Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has called crucial to the broader U.S. economic recovery.

Black Blade: The US Dollar should fall much further if the US economy is to even begin to recover. Then other nations would also like to weaken their currencies so their economies can recover � take note of Japan's numerous currency interventions.

(06/04/2002; 21:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77513)
@YGM re:Debt Crisis & Real Estate; Rees-Mogg etc.
Ultimately I believe real estate will go down; but only after possibly doubling again; I would not be surprised at a 10 banger. My parents saw their home go up 30 fold from 1961. If interest rates on a real basis are negative, people put their money into things. The banks and guv will welcome more liquidity, more tax revenue, more loans. Bond holders will lose.
I like Davidson and Rees-Mogg; read two of their books with great interest and subscribed to their newsletter for years. Their timing in the early 90`s was totally off however. Very bad investment record.
I think we are too quick to assume everything will go down the tube immediately. I still have my dried food from the 80`s. This thing will not happen overnight. (complete ruin) There may be a roll-over type event but I think a lot of water will go under the bridge before ruination.
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 22:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77514)
Yen Falls vs Dollar, Euro as Bank of Japan Sells Its Currency∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APPzeXRUZWWVuIEZh

New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the dollar as Japan sold its currency for the fourth day in two weeks to stem a rally that threatens export growth and a nascent recovery in the world's second-biggest economy.

Black Blade: A race to devalue between the Yen and the US dollar?

Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 22:20:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77515)
The Battling Kaplans


(From Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management) - This afternoon gold and silver have sold off sharply in after-hours trading, with gold, at one point, down about $4, in rather illiquid conditions. I had calls from rather emotional clients, who were naturally quite concerned about their long positions in the market. From what I can gather, a major newsletter advisor advised his clientele to sell their gold today, and the electronic newsletters arrived late in the day. Perhaps I am wrong, but I see the large drop in prices in both gold and silver, late in the day, as an aberration. Separating emotion from intellect, nothing has substantively changed in the market. The USD was still lower on the day, the stock market was still lower on the day, and I still believe that the gold and silver markets are headed higher.

Black Blade: He may be referring to SJ Kaplan who reportedly has given a sell recommendation (again and again). Nevertheless, I am "VERY STRONGLY BULLISH" on Gold.
(06/04/2002; 22:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77516)
Dollar falls against Yen Gives Up Early Gain
June 04, 2002 11:26 PM ET � By Yoshiko Mori
TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar gave up its early, modest gains against the yen by late morning on Wednesday as profit-taking interest outweighed support from Japan's weaker-than-expected corporate survey results, traders said.
Many traders said the most influential factor for the market now is the trend in global capital flows rather than economic indicators.
"The market's focus is now clearly on the trend in the U.S. asset market, and in that environment economic indicators from Japan and elsewhere have to take a back seat," said Minori Takeuchi, vice president at Chase Manhattan Bank.
........During early U.S. trading hours, Japanese monetary authorities confirmed they had intervened in the foreign exchange market, for the fourth day in two weeks. That sent the dollar up around one yen to 124.34 yen in New York.
Senior Japanese Finance Ministry official Zembei Mizoguchi said on Wednesday that he would keep watch over foreign exchange, adding authorities were always prepared to act if needed.
But traders remain unconvinced that Japan would be able to effect lasting change in the yen's value against the dollar, since foreign money has been flowing into Japanese assets.
........The European single currency rose to a fresh 16-month high of $0.9453 in New York on Tuesday, staging a recovery of over 10 percent from this year's low around $0.8563 in early February. ($1=124.19 Yen)
@Black Blade- Volatility increasing in the Forex markets?
(06/04/2002; 22:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77517)
Foreign Exchange Markets, not "Forex".
Black Blade
(06/04/2002; 22:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77518)
Declining dollar set to boost gold

JOHANNESBURG - Increasing doubts about the dollar's ability to buck its recent downward trend has sent a number of economists back to the drawing board. Just last week brokers Societe Generale softened its bearish outlook on gold due in the main to its outlook for the US dollar.

But if JP Morgan's highly regarded technical strategy team's latest hypothesis is anything to go by, the Bank Of Japan could be shelling out plenty more in the years ahead if it is to retain a policy of keeping the yen under wraps.

Black Blade: It would appear that the US dollar is likely to slide further in spite of intervention. Foreign investors are leaving US markets. Consider that it was the $1.2 billion/day inflows in US bond markets from foreign investors that padded the books. Now those funds are going back home (except what the currency "interventionists" are spending).

(06/05/2002; 01:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77519)
Socrates(Another) - Plato(FOA) - Aristotle

Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - msg#: 77498)

Once again a masterpiece from the "Ancient Greeks" here on USA Gold. Very astute and worthy of a place of honor among the gilded opinions for which I hereby nominate the post.
Gandalf the White
(06/05/2002; 02:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77520)
Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - msg#: 77498)
Spartacus (06/05/02; 01:38:19MT - msg#: 77519)
Sir Spartacus said: "I hereby nominate the post."
AND I am pleased to be the first "Second" to that Nomination.
(06/05/2002; 02:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77521)
@ Aristotle
Sir, read (re-read) "Revisionist vieuw of the Great Depression" by Antal Fekete (Safehaven-archives).
This to understand "WHY", "WHAT", is happening now. Sorry for being so short. Timeshortage.

Sector (#77501) : Good insights from you ! Thanks.
(06/05/2002; 02:45:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77522)
BB re Puplova
That was really perculiar this morning (here) ! NY Gold closes @ 4am local and I usually get my first Au report @ 6am...$ the time I'd got to work (7.30), Reuters were reporting $325.1.....all this 3.5 hrs after NY close and 3 hrs before Syd open.......MOST curious!!
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 02:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77523)
Re: Topaz

I think we have discovered the "line in the sand" for the POG. Once the POG hit $330 an ounce it was beaten back. Then it was a matter of beating back the price in an illiquid market in order to set market direction. So far the POG has remain well below $330 an ounce and above $325 an ounce. Still the fundamentals are the same - weak USD, relatively higher petroleum prices, falling equities markets, threat of nuclear confrontation, etc. Nothing significant has changed in the "big picture". A misstep here or there could trigger another spike in the POG.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 03:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77524)
Car Bombing Kills 17 In Israel

Here we go again. Islamic Jihad has taken responsibility for a car bombing that killed 17 Israelis and wounded 35 on a bus in Megiddo Junction (northern Israel). This could kick up petroleum prices again as violence in the Middle East is likely to pick up after an uneasy calm despite Israeli troops and tanks moving back into West Bank towns. So far this does not seem to move the market futures in the US or markets in Europe.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 03:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77525)
Worldcom Considers 16,000 Job Cuts

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - WorldCom Inc., the No. 2 U.S. long-distance telephone company, is considering cutting 20 percent of its workforce, or about 16,000 jobs, in a bid to trim costs and turn the ailing firm around, USA Today said on Wednesday.

Black Blade: More "Phone Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". Yet another major Job cut announcement hours after Alan Greenspan said that such announcements were fading. Rumor has it that WorldCom may be filing for bankruptcy in coming weeks or months. All this while former CEO still owes $360 million in company sponsored loans. Hmmm�

(06/05/2002; 03:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77526)
Cavan Man (6/4/02; 19:30:33MT - msg#: 77495)
What a quandrary the RBA has to deal with C-Man. Firstly the R/E bubble, given as the primary reason for the rate hike, is almost exclusively a Sydney-Melbourne phenomenon. Can you imagine the angst directed at the Governor from the rest of regional Oz who are NOT benefiting from increased R/E valuations AND are also suffering as Primary produce goes down the girgler due to the appreciating A$.
Fiat economies...a Jugglers worst Nightmare.
(06/05/2002; 03:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77527)
HEADLINE: Gold Hits 4 1/2 Year High - Security From Securities

Gold rose to a four and a half year high yesterday, extending this year's rally to eighteen percentage points, as investors sought an alternative to volatile stocks and bonds.

Investors are buying gold in search of better returns and protection from a disruption to financial markets should India and Pakistan go to war....

Nothing you didn't already know.

(06/05/2002; 04:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77528)
HEADLINE: In darkest days, gold regains allure Andrew Cassel
(Philadelphia Inquirer) June 5, 2002 -- If you want the state of the world in a nutshell, you can skip the headlines, turn off Peter Jennings, ignore what's on the covers of Time and Newsweek, and just look at the daily spot price of gold.

People under 40 may not remember when gold was a big deal. Hardly anyone alive recalls the days when the U.S. government would cheerfully swap gold for dollars at a fixed rate.

That system tied the currency - and by implication, the economy - to the amount of one particular substance that happened to have been dug out of the ground.

We don't do that any more - Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Richard Nixon both had a hand in breaking the formal link between gold and the dollar - but gold hasn't become economically irrelevant, either.

Thousands of years of nearly universal tradition have given gold a special status. From Bangkok to Buenos Aires, people still treat it as a measure of value and a way to store wealth, particularly in dangerous or uncertain times.

Times like now, for example.

---------(click URL for full article)---------

The trend of the media to paint gold in a favorable light to Main St. seems to be growing apace.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(06/05/2002; 04:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77529)
Pound must fall for euro entry ==>20% property devaluation in the uk (Reuters) - The British pound is at least 20 percent overvalued against the euro and would need to fall by that amount before sterling should join the single currency, says a senior official at the European Banking Federation (EBF) says.

The chairman of the EBF's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Martin Huefner, said sterling would have to fall to fair value for British euro entry.

"At these (current) levels, entry is not possible or advisable," he said after presenting the committee's report on the euro area's economic outlook on Wednesday.

Commenting on the euro's recent appreciation against sterling, Huefner said: "For the discussion of the British pound entering the euro, it is a very good development."

WAC: Is this enough, or must there be an outright crash?
(06/05/2002; 04:28:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77530)
HEADLINE: Pound must fall for euro entry (by at least one-fifth!) (Reuters) - The British pound is at least 20 percent overvalued against the euro and would need to fall by that amount before sterling should join the single currency, says a senior official at the European Banking Federation (EBF) says.

"At these (current) levels, entry is not possible or advisable," he said after presenting the committee's report on the euro area's economic outlook on Wednesday.

--------(click URL for full text)---------

To my British associates, please see this for what it is -- a wake up call regarding the future purchasing power of sterling.

In its simplest form, the pound is "too strong" to the point of rendering British industry, goods and services less than ideally competitive at existing nominal wage levels translated through the exchange rate. Thus, it would not be wise to "lock in" at this noncompetitive rate.

Now here's the key point. This has nothing to do with the issue of whether Britain opts for the EMU or not. As you might well imagine, if British industry is noncompetive at current exchange rates such that it is ill-advised to lock in to the Monetary Union at these exchange rates, it only stands to reason that even with EMU put aside, sterling will not for long remain freely floating at these difficult levels. If the markets don't take it down, domestic politics will intervene to get the job done.

Are you prepared to piss away one-fifth of your current purchasing power through inaction? Don't take my word for it, but the writing on the wall seems pretty clear on this one.

A diversification into gold while the pound remains strong would be advisable. Give Centennial a call during Denver's business hours (subtract 7 hrs from London time).

Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 05:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 77531)
Desperate dollar 'set for euro parity'∈_review_text_id=573750

THE dollar sell-off is gathering momentum, with some experts predicting parity between the US currency and the euro by year-end.

Black Blade: Interesting possibilities if parity is reached.

(06/05/2002; 06:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77532)
Paper Au v Physical Au - Disconnected -
Few Random Thoughts from my pea brain
I think it was "Miner" that referred to a rocket booster section, burning out and drifting back to earth or its real level/value as nothing after burn-out.

Paper Au will start to burn "down" as more and more is sold into the fire, (thoughts & the teaching of FOA & Another).
This will/has caused the seraration/disconnection. Now in rapid process. Why would anyone sell serious amounts of physical Au in such an unstable shifting market? Soon real gold to hold will not be found for sale at "quoted" prices,
what will you pay?

As the new East & MidEast gold trading centres establish themselves this month and onward the disconnection will continue. What will be the new "price discovery" system be, what - where- when?

I do not know - who does or can anyone speculate?

(06/05/2002; 06:38:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77533)
@ Spelling - Sorry "Separation"


(06/05/2002; 07:22:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77534)
Gold newsletters skeptical

CBSMarketWatch's Mark Hulbert wrote an encouraging piece this morning (see below). In a nutshell, he believes in today's gold bull market because gold timing newsletters aren't bullish about the possibilities. Has anyone else found Hulbert's "yardstick" to be a valid way to measure this phenomenon?

Gold timers still skeptical

By Mark Hulbert,
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 5, 2002

ANNADALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Despite continued strength in the gold market, the gold timers I track remain largely skeptical that this is the beginning of a gold bull market. And that's bullish.

As of Tuesday's close -- after a day in which the nearby futures contract briefly rose above $330 and closed up $1.10 -- the Hulbert Financial Digest's gold sentiment index stood at just 45.8 percent.

This index is calculated by averaging the gold market exposure among gold timing newsletters that communicate their thoughts daily with their subscribers. The current reading therefore means that the average gold timer is advising that subscribers allocate more than half their gold portfolios to cash.

It's nothing short of amazing that the gold timers are not exhibiting more exuberance.

After all, that is exactly what they did on every other occasion in recent years in which gold showed even a fraction of its current strength. But not this time; over the past month, during which gold has climbed by more than $20 per ounce, the HFD's gold sentiment index has risen just 16 percentage points.

In early February, in contrast, the HFD's gold sentiment index shot up to 90 percent after bullion briefly eclipsed the $300 level. Today, in contrast, with gold trading nearly $25 per ounce higher, this sentiment index is only half as high.

Or consider the HFD's gold sentiment index in the fall of 1999, the last occasion prior to this week in which gold traded above $320. It shot up then to over 70 percent, more than 25 percentage points above today's level.

Though there are myriad individual reasons why various gold timers are skeptical of this rally, their collective mood reminds me of Charlie Brown after one too many times trusting that Lucy wouldn't pull the football away at the last minute: He decides never to trust her again.

It similarly would seem that, after having been burned countless times by false gold rallies, many timers vowed never to trust another gold rally -- even one as strong as the current one.

Ironically, this may prove to be the very rally they should have trusted.

(06/05/2002; 07:35:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77535)
Black Blades Bone Pile........'s a list of those headed to the bone pile.....Many of which media ignores or forgets to mention...Slipping quietly into the night...Bankruptcies up 19% over /02
(06/05/2002; 07:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77536)
Debt Levels 1985 to 2001 Level of Public & Private Debt
1985 - 2001*
($ Billions)

Municipal Treasury(1) Mortgage-Related(2) Corporate* Fed Agencies Money Market(3) Asset-Backed*(4) Total

1985 859.5 1,437.7 372.1 776.5 293.9 847.0 0.9 4,587.6
1986 920.4 1,619.0 534.4 959.6 307.4 877.0 7.2 5,225.0
1987 1,010.4 1,724.7 672.1 1,074.9 341.4 979.8 12.9 5,816.2
1988 1,082.3 1,821.3 772.4 1,195.7 381.5 1,108.5 29.3 6,391.0
1989 1,135.2 1,945.4 971.5 1,292.5 411.8 1,192.3 51.3 7,000.0
1990 1,184.4 2,195.8 1,333.4** 1,350.4 434.7 1,156.8 89.9 7,745.4
1991 1,272.2 2,471.6 1,636.9 1,454.7 442.8 1,054.3 129.9 8,462.4
1992 1,302.8 2,754.1 1,937.0 1,557.0 484.0 994.2 163.7 9,192.8
1993 1,377.5 2,989.5 2,144.7 1,674.7 570.7 971.8 199.9 9,928.8
1994 1,341.7 3,126.0 2,251.6 1,755.6 738.9 1,034.7 257.3 10,505.8
1995 1,293.5 3,307.2 2,352.1 1,937.5 844.6 1,177.3 316.3 11,228.5
1996 1,296.0 3,459.7 2,486.1 2,122.2 925.8 1,393.9 404.4 12,088.1
1997 1,367.5 3,456.8 2,680.2 2,346.3 1,022.6 1,692.8 535.8 13,102.0
1998 1,464.3 3,355.5 2,955.2 2,666.2 1,296.5 1,978.0 731.5 14,447.2
1999 1,532.5 3,281.0 3,334.2 3,022.9 1,616.5 2,338.2 900.8 16,026.4
2000 1,567.8 2,966.9 3,564.7 3,372.0 1,851.9 2,661.0 1,071.8 17,056.1
2001* 1,665.3 2,967.5 4,125.5 3,818.2 2,143.0 2,541.7 1,281.1 18,542.3

*The Bond Market Association estimates
**Denotes break in series due to the inclusion of additional source data on private-label MBS/CMOs.
(1) Interest bearing marketable public debt.
(2) Includes GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC mortgage-backed securities and CMOs and private-label MBS/CMOs.
(3) Includes commercial paper, bankers' acceptances, and large time deposits.
(4) Includes public and private placements.
U.S. Department of Treasury
Federal Reserve System
Federal National Mortgage Association
Government National Mortgage Association
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

****To View....use link provided....No debt crisis my ass!!
(06/05/2002; 07:53:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77537)
Wave of Defaults.......Prediction.......They Won't be 'Orderly' of the Prediction

This site carries a prediction of and provides evidence for a wave of defaults that is outside the control of financial and monetary authorities. It might be thought of as a "disorderly" rather than an "orderly" workout of overindebtedness. According to the IMF and mainstream macroeconomics, there is no "debt problem," only a commitment problem. According to this view crises occurred in the late 'nineties because the political authorities in emerging economies lacked the political will or commitment to institute much needed economic reforms. Reflecting this "Northern" rather than a "Southern" perspective, the respected NGO, ICG (International Crisis Group), argues in a recent 13mar01 report, that "the problem" underlying Indonesia's continuing crisis is "the government's inability or unwillingness to implement fully a policy agenda that it has already agreed with its external creditors." Authorities have admitted to a problem of overindebtedness among HIPCs (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries). But the 41 countries identified as HIPC by the WB (World Bank) have (before any debt cancellations) an *average* level of external debt of just over $5bil, and this debt is almost exclusively debt to governments and multilateral banks (such as the IMF and WB). When HIPCs have gone into arrears this has not destabilized world capital markets. Whether or not more HIPC debt is forgiven by the G8, this does not matter so much for the stability of the world monetary system. The HIPCs are not only important for issues of human suffering, however. I argue that the inability of HIPCs to pay their external debt is the canary in the mine -- they are informing us of what's coming from countries with major indebtedness to private creditors.

**The prediction of an uncontrolled wave of defaults comes from the vulnerability of the system. That vulnerability comes from US household debt (over $6trillion) as well as the external debt of countries like Argentina, Indonesia, Russia, and Turkey as well as the volume of non-performing in the banking systems of Japan and Korea as well as the high debt/equity ratios of firms in these two economies. It also comes from G7 corporate overleveraging, especially in the telecommunications sector.

A driving force that is yet not expended in the world economy is the telecommunications revolution. The revolution will not be over, in my opinion, until wireless communications and two-way interactive video is within the grasp of the world's "middle class" (which is actually a small percent of the world's population). By the time that happens many brick and mortar firms will have been eliminated by this technological upheaval. But my prediction of a wave of defaults is not so much about the enterprises that are swept away by the profound changes in technology, but rather by the vulnerability of those economic agents who, like overzealous energy investors in the late 'seventies, continue to accept increasingly levels of risk in their efforts to participate in quick riches from this revolution. The willingness to assume unsustainable levels of indebtedness began when the rules of prudent borrowing were discarded during the inflationary monetary policies of the 'seventies and it has continued unabated into this new millennium.

before the new millennium. The 1999-2000 debt-relief/write-downs have been under the control of the IMF, Paris Club and London Club.

****What is being predicted here is that the defaults will cease to be orderly -- they will be sufficiently large to circumvent the control of monetary and financial authorities and become a "crisis," larger than the Mexican ('94-95), Asian ('97) and Russian/LTC ('98) crises which will be eventually seen as precursors to the final event which a weakened IMF will no longer be able to control via "bailouts." ****

**The reasons for regarding the world system as vulnerable to a wave of defaults are both historical and contemporary. From a historical perspective, I argue that "the West" has been in a Kondratieff downwave since the Monetarist/Volckerian revolution in monetary policy in 1979. The third world and emerging economies have joined their richer neighbors in this period of tight policy as a result of contracting debt in hard currencies and submitting to IMF stabilization programs. The treatment of this period as developing unsustainable real debt burdens comes from my studies (with others) of the late nineteenth century and the Great Depression and from a monetary interpretation of the Kondratieff wave. The reason for entitling this site "Waves of Default" comes from the historical similarity between the post-1980 disinflation and post-war deflations in the 19th and early 20th century. I interpret the recessions/depressions at the end of all Kondratieff downwaves as debt crises caused by commodity price paths coming in lower than anticipated causing a higher than expected real debt burden. I have, therefore, a monetary rather than a real theory of the longwaves down named after Kondratieff.

Back to the top page
(06/05/2002; 08:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77538)
Waves of Default.........Main Page. overview and lots more......YGM
(06/05/2002; 08:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77539)
The Golden Hammer....
Tranquilizers Anyone....Just smile folks...You know what you know, you got what you got, and now you can get more.....YGM.

(06/05/2002; 08:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 77540)
Kramrich; Housing Bubble; Inflation
Enjoyed your post, however I disagree with your assumption that real interest rates will rise to compensate lenders for their lost purchasing power. This did not happen in the 70`s. Sure, people thought it a great rip-off to end up with negative inflation adjusted returns on bonds, deposits, mortgages etc.; but that is what an inflation is all about- ripping you off. You have to decide whether to be a ripper or a rippee.
That the whole fractional reserve system/guv deficit financing/debt system is wrong, terribly, terribly wrong is not in question at this site. Goldbugs (I am one) tend to believe with religious fervour that the whole system is logically doomed. The problem is timing, and the tendency is to underestimate system resiliency.
When the Fed prints money with gusto, noone will be able to stand in the way and demand more interest because it is fair compensation. They will simply be swept away in tidal wave of paper money. That is why more people will buy gold. In the interim, they will also buy real estate because people use it and need it.
This is not to say there will not be a 30`s style collapse EVENTUALLY, but the system will avoid this like the plague it is. It is all about timing, do not be surprised if housing keeps on going, that is the nature of the bubble. Look at how long it took to happen at Nasduck.
Carl H
(06/05/2002; 09:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77541)
Anyone heard from Bill or Chris in the last 48 hours?

Chris Powell
(06/05/2002; 09:53:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77542)
Help! I've been kidnapped by the New York Fed
They're keeping me in the gold vault downstairs, and .... there's nothing here but a lot of paper IOUs!
The Hoople
(06/05/2002; 10:06:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77543)
Chris Powell
Do happen to see the bones of that Fed attorney who let it slip in the Fed minutes about gold swaps?
(06/05/2002; 10:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77544)
Chris Powell
Chris, I'd offer some Gold Eagles for a ransom payment, but no one wants gold these days. I hope you find a way out of there soon!
(06/05/2002; 12:23:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77545)
Out of Africa?

The article below, posted on another gold forum, has me more concerned than today's precipitous drop in the POG. Is it time to get out of South African gold stocks and invest in non-SA companies? Your thoughts, please.

A Radical Overhaul for South African Mining
The New York Times Business Section, June 3, 2002

OHANNESBURG, June 3 � After more than a year of painstaking revision and top-level deliberation, the government here is about to alter the balance of power in the country's mining industry.

Parliament will begin final work this week on a bill that will give the government ultimate ownership of all of the country's prodigious mineral resources, which mining companies would then exploit only under license, giving the state the final say over who digs what and where.

With the new law, South Africa hopes to transform an industry that has been an instrument and emblem of white social and economic control since gold and diamonds were first discovered in sizable quantities in South Africa in the 19th century.

Since the end of apartheid and the establishment of black rule almost a decade ago, the government has made it a central objective to turn the mines into engines of economic betterment for more of the black majority, as they have been for many in the white minority.

Its principal tool is the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill, which Parliament will try to complete beginning Tuesday. Under the law, the state would assume ownership of all the country's mineral resources, a significant share of which have been privately controlled for decades, principally by the major global mining companies. To win mining licenses, the companies would have to promise to "expand opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons to enter the mineral industry," particularly by enlisting black partners and investing in black communities.

Most of the world's major mining nations, including Australia, Chile, Canada and Peru, have similar systems of national control and licensing. The United States, with its mix of private and public ownership of mineral rights, is an exception, in some respects similar to South Africa.

Entrenched though it is, South Africa's mining industry would have been hard pressed to defy prevailing international practices, so it has focused instead on fighting specific elements of the bill, not its underlying principle of state ownership.

The implications will ripple well beyond South Africa. Many of the world's major mining companies operate in the country, and several have roots here, notably Anglo American and its stable of companies. One of them, Anglo Platinum, the world's biggest platinum producer, holds about two-thirds of South Africa's platinum reserves, according to the government. Roughly half the country's gold reserves are controlled either by AngloGold or by Gold Fields Ltd.

Companies now mining in South Africa will have to apply to have their "old order rights" converted into "new order rights." All are expected to win approval, though some are concerned that the process will not run as routinely as promised.

The government's chief of mining regulation, Jacinto Rocha, said the companies had nothing to worry about. "Is there automaticity?" he said. "As far as we are concerned, yes, there is."

The Constitution requires the state to pay compensation for expropriated property, but there are unresolved questions about how this applies to the proposed law, most significantly to what extent mineral rights are "property." The bill's terms impose a long list of conditions for compensation, among them proof "of actual loss and damage," and it calls for the need to redress past racial discrimination to be taken into account. "It is," Mr. Rocha acknowledged, "very complex."

The law calls for licenses of up to 5 years for prospecting rights and up to 30 years for mining rights. Companies would pay royalties to the state, as they do in many cases today, but they would do it under a new framework still being drafted by the ministry of finance.

What is distinct about South Africa's law is its pronounced emphasis on social development in mining communities and on black participation in management and ownership.

No one in the industry openly questions those goals � indeed, many say they embrace them. But some mining companies and international mining experts say the proposed law remains too vague and too vulnerable to political whims.

In a critique submitted to Parliament last week, the South African Chamber of Mines praised many improvements in the bill since the first draft of December 2000. But the chamber, which speaks for all the industry's major players including Anglo and Gold Fields, outlined a number of problems and proposed some amendments.

For one thing, the bill is widely taken to mean mining companies will be expected to build schools, clinics and roads in the communities where they mine. But the chamber says it is in the dark about how much of such spending will be enough.

"It's not in the bill," Mzolisi Diliza, the chamber's chief executive, said. "You are expected to comply with something you don't know."

Mr. Rocha said the draft law was not the place for such details. "The bill sets the principle, the meat comes then in the regulations," he said. Along with a forthcoming minerals charter, the regulations that will follow the law will provide sufficient clarity, he said.

Still, many experts say, the most important questions must be addressed up front, whether in the law or in an accompanying document.

"The reality is, we are living in the third world, in a developing country," said Fred Cawood, a senior lecturer in mineral policy at the University of Witwatersrand's School of Mining Engineering in Johannesburg. "Just because the current government has the integrity to deal with this doesn't mean future governments will, and that's why the government has to spell out the rules of the game."

Another concern is that under the law, a court could hear a challenge only to the process of a decision, not its substance. That, Mr. Diliza said, undermines the security that miners are seeking. "You can follow the right procedure and arrive at the wrong decision," he said.

Rarely has a bill in South Africa faced the scrutiny that the minerals bill has � and no wonder. While the mining industry's dominance has slipped some in recent years as the economy has opened up and diversified, few industries are more central, symbolically and substantively, to South Africa's identity.

Gold from the mines on its outskirts made Johannesburg the commercial capital of the continent. Diamonds turned a South African company called De Beers into a worldwide synonym for luxury. Platinum is the country's next great hope.

But the boom that blessed South Africa largely passed blacks by, though they were the labor behind it. Even had they the means, they could not own mineral rights under apartheid law, and the industry invested little in mining communities.

So when political power changed hands in 1994, the mining industry was a prime target for black empowerment, the effort to integrate the country's capitalist class and improve the lives of the lower classes.

In her budget speech to Parliament last month, the minister of minerals and energy, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, depicted an industry that, mineral by mineral, remained largely in the hands of whites. "This," she said, "is not sustainable in the democratic South Africa."

By insisting, as the proposed law does, that companies use their rights or lose them, the government hopes to stimulate more turnover. The last few years have produced a few notable new entries, like Tokyo Sexwale, a former antiapartheid guerrilla leader who has become perhaps the most prominent black figure in mining. Earlier this year his Mvelaphanda Holdings was listed on the JSE Securities Exchange, the main financial market here, where it was joined last month by African Rainbow Minerals Gold, led by Patrice Motsepe, a former mining lawyer.

Mr. Motsepe said the government had a difficult line to walk: "The challenge � and I've got confidence in the way it's being done � is that while you introduce these changes, these social changes, that you maintain security of tenure, you maintain respect for property rights and you retain the competitiveness of the South African mining industry."

(06/05/2002; 12:39:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77546)
Leigh - Powell Ransom
I will be glad to take your Gold Eagles. Does 20 sound about what he would be worth?
Old Yeller
(06/05/2002; 12:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77547)
Ballooning deficit forecasts
New estimates reach up to $250 billion for the year,depending on Homeland Security and defense expenditures.

Revenues are plunging,too.If Roach is right and we get our double-dip recession as well as white-collar job cuts,the rosy spin presented by some dissenters in this story will be just that.
(06/05/2002; 12:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77548)
To Powell kidnapers - Chris Powell
Reliable party has 10 Gold EAgles to offer for release of Mr. Powell.

Eagle One
(06/05/2002; 13:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77549)
@OldYeller...TKS for the Newbie post...But The Real US Budget Deficit is...
...$515 Billion [GAAP]According to the recently released Paul O'Neill Treasury website letter.

Any body hear the mainstream media pundits moaning over this news? Nope?...Me neither.

This dificit number is tabulated very early in the recessionary cycle [Now]. Let's take some bets as to the final US GAAP deficit as of the 4th Quarter 2002...

Any calls for $1 Trillion?
Tommy P
(06/05/2002; 13:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77550)
The reason why Gold to a hit today read
(06/05/2002; 14:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77551)
Don't be shy Tommy P
Stick it out there for all... :>} *Linked Already previously..Why gold tanked

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: 2002/06/05 Wed 20:14 | � Miningweb 1997-2002

JOHANNESBURG � South African gold stocks were massacred today as freefalling bullion knocked almost 8 percent off the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's gold index. The fall in the bourse's gold stocks came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz and finally to $321/oz, where some dealers reckon it has found support.
Interestingly, one senior Johannesburg-based trader says the long-liquidation by the fund appears to have been an intentional strategy to lower the gold price. He could not give reasons for the fund's alledged intent, although he said it could have been a move designed to lower the gold price in order to buy in again at lower levels. The sale was executed using the 'Access' system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

The trader said the sale was made in an illiquid market, between the New York close yesterday and the opening of the Tokyo market this morning.

"They also sold illiquid months and that pushed the price down. It was definitely someone trying to butcher the market," said the trader. The deal was done for 2,000 December contracts, a particularly thin month, and 3,000 August contracts. It sparked a series of stop-loss selling which the trader said created a feeding frenzy among those long gold bullion; this brought on the long liquidation many market commentators have warned of in recent weeks.

But the bullish undertone in the market remains firmly in place, despite today's spectacular $9/oz fall in the price. Another bullion dealer said the metal would do well to consolidate at the lower levels before launching another assault at the key $330/oz mark. "We all knew it had to take a bit of a breather. This fall has been quite drastic but if it had fallen slower we would just have said it was just what the market needed," said the dealer.

He said upside for the metal was still in place as it continued to track the Euro.

The European currency's downward correction against the dollar last night, he said, was also a factor weighing on the gold price. The trader said, however, that the Euro was expected to strengthen further against the dollar from its current levels of around $0.935, which in turn would lift the gold price.

But that will be cold comfort for gold share traders who took a haircut in the market today. In Johannesburg, Gold Fields, the darling of the market last month, dropped 10.49 percent to R129.43, while non-hedging rival Harmony Gold lost 8.82 percent to R163.60.

Durban Roodepoort Deep dumped 6.18 percent to close on R51.65 and AngloGold, the bourse's number one dropped 6 percent from yesterday's record close to R628 a share. New entrant ARMGold lost 4.2 percent to R55.85 and junior Afrikander Lease took a 9.09 percent hammering to R6.36.

In Australia, the dip was less marked. Auriongold, the subject of a takeover bid by North American Placer Dome, shed 1.74 percent, while number two producer Newcrest dipped 1.09 percent to A$8.19.

Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 14:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 77552)
CNBC Reports

The stock markets have rebounded toward the end of session today. Bob Pisanni a reporter at the NYSE stated that the rebound was due to Larry Elison CEO of Oracle stating that his company will "not warn on earnings". That's pathetic that the market would move higher not because a company announces improved earnings or even earnings, but that they will not warn on unexpected lower earnings.

Then Pisanni actually audibly laughed on the air when he mentioned todays drop in gold prices. I guess it's safe to say he is not invested in gold.

- Black Blade

BTW, gold is rebounding slightly in after hours. The article linked by TommyP is worth looking at and it is as I suspected. Look at last nights posts and todays market report.

Tommy P
(06/05/2002; 14:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77553)
Thanks Johnny! should help the credibility
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 14:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 77554)
Job cuts hit fast pace in June

After May, the slowest month for job cuts in a year, businesses are swinging the ax again.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" is set to grow higher still.

(06/05/2002; 14:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77555)
The COMEX Had Been Going UP in a Linear Fashion...
Hot Fund Money Doesn't LIKE thatSee...the really hot, point-jumper funds like a cyclically upward pattern...a "Channel". We didn't really have such a "Channel". Just a narrow linear pattern.

Today they made a real "Channel".

POG now sits at the lower "Channel Marker" with $330 as the ceiling imposed by the Caba with it's selling of physical gold.

That they are being slowly strangled by gold at these levels is pretty clear to all. How much do they have left?

Stay tuned.
(06/05/2002; 14:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77556)
HEADLINE: The Afternoon Gold Report

June 5, 2002 (
...Gold futures as reported by OsterDowJones at opened around $3 lower when overnight losses spilled over into the U.S. session after a large commodity fund liquidated some Dec positions, as noted by one Comex floor trader.

...."We did start seeing some profit taking late yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon and it washed into this morning, but frankly I don't see this as anything that significant," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill. "The emotions are obviously running very high among those long (the market), and I think we've shaken out a lot of the weak hands," he added. "Gold is off because there was huge profit-taking by a fund last night on ACCESS," said a bullion dealer, referring to the COMEX electronic trading system.

The selling started shortly before the New York close Tuesday and continued in the after-market, where the roughly 5,400 lots traded was unusually heavy business for ACCESS. "I heard it was an equity fund that took a punt in gold, made a few bucks and took their profit," the dealer said. "Once Japan started intervening with the dollar, gold got sold off a little bit and equities coming back didn't help," said a floor broker.

...Traders estimated the Bank of Japan spent anywhere between $1 billion and $5 billion Tuesday to weaken the Japanese currency. Reuters reports that Japanese authorities sold the yen again on Wednesday.

...The pullback in gold price overnight and through today's trading appears to be a corrective phase in the rapid run up in gold prices that has seen daily upside moves for several days. The world is still an uncertain place with the threat of war in Central Asia, terrorism in the Middle East and there are new concerns today that Brazil could default on debt following on the heels of Argentina. The outlook for gold is still positive as portfolio insurance and wealth preservation vehicle.

-------(click URL for full text, on right-hand column)------

Bottom line: You'll definitely want to get into the habit of checking out Mr. Warner's excellent "after the close" afternoon reports provided here.

(06/05/2002; 14:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77557)
Eagle One
Let's look at your offer closely, Eagle One. You want me to give you 20 Eagles for Chris's release, and then you will give 10 to the kidnappers. No, thanks!

I got so discouraged today that I tossed all my gold out into the street, just like a Bible character. A thunderstorm came along and washed it into the storm drain. Poor Chris might be in that vault for a while. At least he has his laptop so he can fill us in on the latest GATA news.
(06/05/2002; 15:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77558)
Which fund sold off?

OK, Black Blade and all you other gold sleuths, which unidentified fund sold off the reported 5000 gold future contracts in the after-market last night? I think this fund--and its after-hours manuever, which cost us all dearly--should be exposed. Your opinions, please.
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 15:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77559)
Re: Jimbo

Which Fund or Funds? I wish I knew. As mentioned in the article, ACCESS trading allows for anonymous trading. The hours of the trading are suspicious and appear to have been closely focussed on a couple of trading months contracts rather than across the board dumping of gold contracts. This suggests that one or very few funds or traders were involved. I think that it was done probably for a quick profit and also to force sentiment and maret direction lower. I have my suspicions as to who, but I don't wish to invite a lawsuit here if I am wrong. The article that TommyP linked and YGM posted reflects what I was thinking about the strange timing of sales during illiquid conditions. That's my take on it anyway.

- Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 15:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77560)
My guess
Thanks, Black Blade, I understand your position. Since I'm under no restrictions, my guess is that the after-hours gold sell-off was perpetrated by a large financial institution such as Goldman-Sucks. Or perhaps the Fed was behind it? Someone among us must know, or have access to sources who know. What about it?
(06/05/2002; 15:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77561)
Leigh and others, try to keep your perspective
If ten weeks ago, when Gold was trading at $290, I had been able to state with authority and absolutely that Gold would be trading above $320 on June 5th, you'd have all likely been thrilled with that outcome.

Well, here it is. Why are you seemingly stressing out over the details of its exact journey getting from there to here?

Would you have been happier if it had dropped intermittantly to $200 first? Or had visited $500 for a day along the way? Or first one, then the other? Or the other way around?

It's not going to move in a straight line. I hope you all know that. So get used to it. But move it will. It's in the cards.

Now, if I were to suggest to you that Gold will be much *much* higher in 2004, that should be universally accepted around here as a good thing. But I'm willing to bet that a number of people are playing silly exotic games with it, and will be likely burned by the path Gold's price will take in the getting to there.

It's the rare bird that manages to exit from leverage at a real profit, while most others just get themselves cooked.

That's why I hold to my approach. I buy my Golden Property on nice days like today and then sit back and enjoy the view, taking pleasure in the fundamentals shaping up like the finest of sunrises.

The day will come when futures will sell off and the coin premiums won't follow them lower.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Sierra Madre
(06/05/2002; 15:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77562)
Not that it makes that much difference to me, but...
I always want to learn a little more; so, would someone please be kind enough to explain to me how the sale of a futures contract affects the price we see on the neighboring forum, or on the INO quote, both of which I take to be quotes for spot transactions actually taking place, where physical gold changes owners.

I should know, but my thoughts are not clear on the subject.

My thanks in advance, for anyone wishing to enlighten me.
Those selling future contracts are not giving up any physical, are they? They are giving up a CHANCE TO PURCHASE physical at X price, and not the yellow stuff itself. Not the same thing, at all.

Further, about that spike downward yesterday and further drop down to 321 or so:

This is all evidence of desperation on the part of those who are attempting to suppress the price of gold. They will fail, without a shadow of a doubt, as those who want the physical are millions all over the world. The gold shorts are desperate and powerful men; it is to be expected they will act in desperation. However, their ship is sinking and no amount of bailing is going to save them.

(06/05/2002; 16:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77563)
ALL pro Gold charts and momentums are there to stay in their irreversable trends, benefitting the future exposure of Gold's Value. Nothing has been broken to signal a stop and reverse in POG rise. The POG can't be stopped anymore...only delayed for substantial (brutal) appreciation. Strong language and a risky statement !?

Antal Fekete, explains why there is no such thing as a zero sum game. The 21 year decline and strict control of P(paper)POG (Hoi C.M.) will take its toll (soon). All forward sales and/or leasing of all kinds of Gold, followed an intentional price downline for more than 20 years. The US$ and interest rates could "stabilize" on the back of Gold's price control and NOT the other way around. We could start listing who benefitted or lost from this mega derivative But irrelevant when approaching the denouement of the no-zero-sum game. All past 20 yrs trends have stopped and reversed decisevely and are building their mirror image. Trades, deals and interventions will soon embark on a non-managed (managable) course. The real four seasons will gain the upperhand when this artificial, neverending summer, ends.

A "Valuation" renaissance. Basta with the theatre ! Defaults, unemployment, natural growth, real exchange rates, easy money...etc, will claim their rights during the natural evolution/cycles of the four seasons.

POG should find support at the 315$ level, where it left (overshot) its rising channel. The sept. '99 WA peak of 332$ is (was) a natural pauze (attraction) point. But the real turnaround has been established and is irreversable. Euro guarantee on this ! All brakes are on the Dow-index decline and stabilizing dollar/euro exchange rate. But the A/D -line of the SP-500 indicates that more and more individual shares are unmasked from their maniacal valuation. Trades, deals and interventions are losing their grip(s) on the underlying over-valueds. The dike(s) will break when we run out of fingers to fill the encreasing numbers of widening holes. The toxic over-valued water keeps on building pressure. All this is daily illustrated by hard working, thought sharing, forumers, here at CPM. Not a single positive "fundamental" has ever been found and posted as a contra-argument !!!

The price of the valuable Gold will certainly be under the very lucky and very few survivers (triomphers), during the coming final reckoning.

Incognito block deals after trading hours, will resort less disturbing (trendsetting) effects on the official and visible trades. They are running out on "original" (lucid) rumors.
They will find fewer authoritive candidates to produce anti Gold menaces. "They, them" ...the financial managers and jongleurs. *Time*, gaining in weight, is against their lucrative, highly unproductive, pseudo-financial acts, feeding the only alternative of "enforced" deflation.
The end is near ! Personally I bet on "very" near !?

Rumsfeld, between the lines, has a timing-problem with ME-oil conquest (Iraq) due to the second Taliban (fundamentalist) front, (re)opened in the Kashmir disputed region. The Palestinian dangerous disturbance works in concert with increased nuclear/terror/ threats. Too much serious (and fragmented) fronts at the same time. There seems to be no serious effort to neutralize or calm down the organized jihads. As if subconsciously, "war" is disered as sole solution to this catch 22 economico/financial disaster in the make. This certainly adds to the theory that deflation has run its course and hyperinflala is coming next to us !

What other argument do we need for having more Physical Yellow, other than the impossible "timing" ?

Sierra Madre
(06/05/2002; 16:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77564)
Just an intuition...but sometimes intuition hits the mark...

I have always thought that the international boycott of S. Africa and the ending of Apartheid and bringing the blacks to power was a screen for a take-over by the New World Order.

The laws currently under "study" by the S.African parliament, regarding mining, remind me of the nationalization of petroleum by Mexico in 1938. The plan was prepared in New York and the details were arranged and known there, before the nationalization was announced in Mexico by the "Great" L�zaro C�rdenas, a kind of Castro before his time.

The object was, to take Mexican petroleum off the market, and especially, to exclude British interests from Mexican oil.

Apply the same to S. Africa. The powers that be, want to crush S. Africa, destroy its mining, and what better process than to put the government into the business. Guaranteed catastrophe!

My intuition tells me that TPTB don't care about more gold coming on to the market. They want control of the source of the gold, in any case, and what better way to do it than to wreck the mining industry, then lend billions upon billions to S. African Gov't, which will have to hock its future production of gold. This gold TPTB can then feed into the market to control its price; or use it to cover their short positions.

This is not the S. African government acting; it is the agent for superior power or powers.

Just my intuition.

(06/05/2002; 17:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77565)
* TRADES * and * DEALS *
We, small shrimps "have" to "trade"" nicely, orderly and correct, during trading hours. Giants are *dealing* (blocktrading) under the identifying radars, after hours.
The difference is in the "trade" and "deal". Trade is a straightforward affair and a deal is a compromise between two parties with a "constructed" mutual interest based on much more insider information with a manipulative character/purpose.

Big money never faces and takes full consequences of wrong positions. They make deals and organise / manipulate, ordinarry trade at their profit. In other words : how and when do you stop and reverse or influence a "trend" and its momentum ? That's what happened. "They" had some reasons for doing so and found co-operators / co- benefittors at the small traders (temporary) expense. Doesn't matter who is "them". The deal was to alter the trading trend and capsize the profit flow, brutally, to another side.

I took my profits (300%) on GFI and exchanged them (the fiat profits) for Physical in Possession at 321$... hardly 10% higher in price than the previous buys ! Dreaming that this kind of gorgeous action could go on for ever !!!
Play (!!!) the financial fiat gamble succesfull with only one purpose : adding coins repetively to the existing Gold stash. Too close to perfection to be true !?
What if 1%...10% of repetitive paper-gold-profits, would (could) "automatically" flow into the yellow pool of Permanent Physical WEALTH Holding !!!!!!!!!!! I'll hammer on this up until it becomes a common practice for all true Gold Philes. Forgive me, please.

Euroland dodozzzz-time.

(06/05/2002; 17:13:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77566)
Short Side..The Sellers of Paper Gold..& Bullion Lessors..
When (not if) These Contracts and Physical Gold Loans are Defaulted..Who Loses?My best guess is the Shareholders of the various Funds that these scumbags are operating thru.. I'm sure that any Gold borrowing or Shorting on Paper is done thru a wide variety of funds owned by oblivious shareholders, not with the money of any single individuals..Mark my words those not paying attention get left holding the bag.. 2-3 yrs ago I remember trying to make others realize that when Goldman Sachs went public (@ about $65.00 p/sh, I think it was) if one bought that stock you were buying all the shady dealings preceeding the public offering.. Just prior to the 1929 crash another Goldman Co went public and was around $105.00 p/sh.. A few months mo after the crash it was asked of a company offical at Congressional hearings what the current value was...$1.25 p/sh... These whitecollar coniving creeps know exactly what they are doing... The Fed and every other part of the Cabal is using and controling the POG thru these various Bullion Banks/Funds... The BB's and Funds in turn are trying to control the POG thru the debt load and granting of loans to the Miners, and selling short on paper... Hedge or we cut off the cash flow! They are engaged in nothing more than the Heroin dealer who gets his clientel hooked and under his control...

You can be sure of "Four" things...

1-When the music stops the principals in those BB's and Funds will have long since made their Billions...

2-The Musical Chair in which they sit will be made of Physical Gold...

3-Most Important of All... Gold "is" going to explode in the not to distant future...

4-The shareholders left holding the bag can and probably will be named in a wave of Lawsuits... If you own shares in a public Co. you can be named in a lawsuit against that Co.

There is an elite group at the top of the pyramid and they know exactly what and when... It will be shown if and
"when" the Dow crashes because of all this skullduggery (like it almost did with LTCM) just who the major short sellers of the Stock Market were prior to crash and we will know who had advance warning... Their greed has no bounds!!

(06/05/2002; 17:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 77567)
Sir Sierra Madre, let's talk price discovery American-style, shall we?
The American Benchmark for price discovery for Gold is the COMEX trade in futures contracts.

As you've pointed out, this opens the door to inadequacies because the instrument of the Exchange is not representative of an actual two-way physical market.

First, some background for anyone following along who needs to be brought up to speed on the mechanics of futures trade.

It's easiest to look at the Contract instrument this way. First of all, market participants pay an "ante," the margin put down for each Contract which is a pledge of their commitment to stand behind their bet -- at least for awhile.

Participants arrive as the exchange, some with perceptions that the Contract prices will move higher, some with perceptions that they will move lower.

To pay the margin and enter/open a contract with expectations that prices will move higher sometime between now and the expiration date (this attitude is called a "long" position,) this person is technically agreeing to receive 100 times whatever price hike may occur between now and when he sells his contract, or contrariwise, should he be wrong and the price falls instead, he agrees to pay 100 time whatever that price fall may be at the time he exits his contract.

Here's the other side of the contract -- the "short" position. This person pays his margin to enter/open a contract with expectations of profiting as the price falls sometime between now and the expiry date. He agrees to accept a long's payment of 100 times whatever the price fall may be; and contrariwise, if he has guessed wrong, he agrees to pay 100 times whatever price rise might materialize at the time he exits his contract prior to expiration.

The price changes on these futures Contracts as speculators show up to place their bets and stake their positions through time. If the longs outnumber and are more aggressive in their bidding than the shorts, the contract price will rise as it moves across the spread, ever toward the higher "ask" price of the nearest short in the queue. If the shorts are more aggressive, the price will fall as it moves ever toward the lower "bid" price of the spread being offered by the nearest long in the queue at the Exchange.

So in simple terms, this is what mechanically drives the COMEX Contract price. For brevity, I won't trouble anyone here with what motivates these long and short participants.

Obviously, no Gold need be set aside or taken off the table as these paper games are played. Longs *feel* like they have Gold, but truly, the shorts have the upper hand. Also a topic left for another post. Suffice to say, if faced with the prospect of ponying up cash to pay for delivery of a full-bodied contract of 100 ounces, most longs (likely with more than one contract) have wallets that are too thin. So in the end they, too, become a seller of contracts as they sell their position for a cash out (win or lose) rather than apply any physical pressure with a Gold offtake. At that point it's candy-from-a-baby for shorts to cover their position by buying offsetting contracts when the puny longs capitulate.

So, with America's Benchmark Gold price "discovered" through COMEX trading, where does the cash-on-the-barrelhead payment on the "SPOT" price come from? It is merely conjured (derived) from the nearest active COMEX contract.

Because the Contract theoretically represents the price at which market participants will buy and deliver real Gold at a particular date at the end of a Contract month, the going contract price represents a forward price and must therefore be mathematically adjusted or "corrected" for a theoretical "spot" price at the present time. This is done by adjusting out the time value of the Gold as well as the time value (interest rate, such as LIBOR) of the currency being used for payment/pricing.

It's a squirrelly deal, and taken together with yesterday's post on "COMEX Inventory" it should be easy for even the most casual observer to recognize how danger signals of an impending lockup in the physical market will not be forecast through the America's paper-dominated benchmark of Gold price discovery.

In the physical market, there is more new demand than new supply, begging the question: Where does the "extra" Gold come from to satisfy these needs if we don't have a legitimate price to clear/balance the physical supply and demand?

Anyone intimate with banking knows the answer. The wonders of expansion of the books through the lending process allows many "owners" of unallocated accounts to think they have unique claims for immediate demand on their deposits, when in fact they do not. It has been lent out to generate a marginal return at great risk. Along with the futures arena of price discovery, the unavoidable inflationary illusion of banking (bullion banking in this case) act together to give this lifetime buying opportunity to anyone wise enough to take delivery.

The physical element has ALWAYS been the Achilles� heel of banking -- especially Gold Standard banking -- and modern times are no different. As we assess the international web of bullion banking practices today, we are staring over the brink of the mother of all bank runs.

Obviously, the Central Bankers are aware of the gravity of this commercial risk, and are impressed with the magnitude of financial crisis that could be precipitated as a result.

Through this, you can perhaps gain some insight as to why the ECB/BIS would be keen upon ushering in an era of Free Gold -- one less aspect of systemic risk to worry about. Free Gold would, in fact, impart a significant stabilizing force to any economy built upon its foundation... a foundation of real wealth and honest, incorruptible savings among the populations. People usually riot when their savings and future security has been wiped out. It won't happen under Free Gold.

Believe it!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Sierra Madre
(06/05/2002; 17:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77568)
Thank you very much, Sir Aristotle!

Clarity, brevity and truthfulness are the mark of a writer who knows what he is talking about.

Your piece is a "saver" and I suspect more than one at this Forum will profit from it.

I don't want to impose upon your generosity with your time and patience, but "Free Gold" - perhaps discussed here at length in days gone by - is a concept I am not sure I understand. I think that a review of the concept at this time might not be amiss, especially for those who, like myself, have not yet fully grasped what it means and implies.

Thank you once again, for your explanation of the futures market and its impact on spot.

(06/05/2002; 18:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77569)
Two Days Early and a Few Dollars LessWhy can't TPTB knock the POG down on my payday? That's all I'm asking. ;0)
(06/05/2002; 18:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77570)
Sir Sierra, "Gold Advocates" and "Free Gold" back if February 2000, I tried to break some new ground here at the forum and shake loose some cobwebs (in my own brain) by delving into the harsh realities of the Gold Standard to ferret out why its demise had come about. As I gave thought to the matter, my investigations revealed that its failure was inevitable if not also completely natural.

I went on to describe what I foresaw as the natural evolutionary path for banking and for Gold's new economic role "within" the next/final phase of the still unfolding modern System. A perfect fit for use in an imperfect world.

In the process, to avoid the derisionary term of Goldbug in an already stressful presentation, I introduced the phrase "Gold Advocate" for my purposes, and have been happy to see it blossom into wider use.

I believe that it was at this same time, in his first response to my series of posts, that FOA first introduced his term of "Free Gold" (and variant "Free Gold Market") to me and the rest of us here.

These posts touched of a whirlwind of discussions on all sides of the matter, much of which was kindly captured for posterity at some pages that have been indexed in the Hall of Fame. (I've just checked, and yes, it's still there. The link above will take you directly to the start of it all.) Lots of reading!!! Or scrolling???? Ha ha!! Skip my tireless blather if you will, but be sure to give attention to FOA's input. Let's see... you'll need to scroll halfway down the page to find it. Oooops, wait-a-minute, he was posting at the forum as Trail Guide then. (I forgot that the moniker FOA became reserved for his Gold Trail posts.)

It's all good. More relevant today than it was then. "Time proves many things."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/05/2002; 18:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77571)
@SierraMadre...The New World Order and South Africa's Gold
The "Plan" Runs into Trouble at the Outset......due to the crushing weight of previous central bank gold loans [10,000 tonnes], not to mention the hedgers buyback obligations of 3,000 tonnes.

Until "Deep Throat" came along all we could do was to speculate about how much gold the treasury had left to sell in order to suppress pog. Now we know [From this one source] that JPM's " derivative book was a loan book, period".

Analyze that.

Since JPMs book was $60 Billion [At $280/ounce] and now is a bit less [$45 Billion (Today's OCC Release Value for Q1 2002), they "Borrowed" a little over 214 million ounces and then sold it or re-loaned it. Subtract an additional 1,700 tonnes of West Point "Custodialized" gold from the treasury and there is not a whole lot left to sell.

The central bankers must regain all those 10,000 tones of gold in order to square their books. Their potential liability as shorter is unlimited since pug could go right through $400 or higher.

But the bank guys have to get these ounces from a far smaller universe of producers and a much smaller annual production. The hedgers are in the same bag.

They all are carrying losses...including CitiBank. Who, just today, it was revealed by the OCC gold derivatives numbers, ADDED 43% more gold derivatives in the last quarter. The LAST quarter they dropped about the same amount in a really curious "Turnaround". Perhaps the "Loan" they thought they had last quarter was "Called back" this quarter. So CitiBank's gold book had to be "Restated". Even their senior employees are asking about the "Gold Problem".

Is it possible for these central bankers to escape? To somehow get South Africa's gold? The short answer is NO.

All they can do is imitate Enron. Pretend they are successful...until Moody's or someone at S&P rips them to pieces.

As Aristotle says, the COMEX may be the pricing place but the vault is the "Bottom Line" place.

And the central bankers are light. Tap-dancing, whistling-in-the-graveyard light.
(06/05/2002; 18:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77572)
I was going to post this very thought!
This is the way!!!
You wrote:
"I took my profits (300%) on GFI and exchanged them (the fiat profits) for Physical in Possession at 321$... hardly 10% higher
in price than the previous buys ! Dreaming that this kind of gorgeous action could go on for ever !!!
Play (!!!) the financial fiat gamble succesfull with only one purpose : adding coins repetively to the existing Gold stash. Too
close to perfection to be true !?
What if 1%...10% of repetitive paper-gold-profits, would (could) "automatically" flow into the yellow pool of Permanent
Physical WEALTH Holding !!!!!!!!!!! I'll hammer on this up until it becomes a common practice for all true Gold Philes.
Forgive me, please."

So true!~!
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 19:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77573)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava

The job of Wall Street and the financial media is to keep investors distracted while they plan their exit. If you want to sell, you have to have buyers. So they hope that plenty of suckers are still around to sell to. Unless you are an adept day trader, your best advice is to use near-term rallies as an opportunity to dump your grossly-overvalued stocks. Ignore the BS about patriotism in remaining in the stock market. You owe it to yourself to protect your assets for you own good and the good of the country. The country is going to need those assets to rebuild once we get through the coming stock market crash and the depression that follows. As far as patriotism is concerned, the smart money has already exited. Insiders have been steadily selling off their shares for years. In survival of the fittest fashion, they have sold off their shares and are protecting themselves.

The price of gold has barely gone up 20% and idiotic analysts and anchors are calling it a bubble. If gold and silver are in a bubble, then what do you call Nasdaq stocks with no earnings, or stocks selling at 40-150 times profits? The gold market and the rise of gold and silver shares, which are up over 100% this year, are just in the beginning stages of a new bull market in real assets. The news about Pakistan, India, and the Middle East is just background noise that filters out the real story, which is the supply deficits. Gold and silver production will be going down and major mining companies are going to have to replace their reserves. No major discoveries are on the horizon, meaning the majors will have to replace their declining reserves by buying out other companies. None of this will increase worldwide supply of the precious metals. In the case of silver, we will soon be running out of our remaining stockpiles worldwide. This is the real issue getting clouded in the daily news which seems to focus on so many short-term events. The India/Pakistan conflict, the conflict in the Middle East, and the war against worldwide terrorism are simple land mines waiting to be detonated that will only accelerate the coming bull market in metals.

Black Blade: Puplava outdoes himself on this daily market wrap up. It is well worth reading as he dwells on the precious metals markets and the phoney Wall Street hype. I can't find any cracks in his reasoning. He feels that since gold has held above the $300 mark, the next leg up is $400 and beyond. He �s also right about a lot of pain in the future for gold shorts.

Cavan Man
(06/05/2002; 19:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77574)
Think hard now. There is no way out? The most powerful are trapped and undone? Be creative. Surely they have a safety valve.

Regarding SA legislation; it is better to actually posess something that is rising in value than to hold a derivative yes? Taxation, even confiscatory taxation is still a derivative. I think we give the NWO crowd to much credit. They are bunglers just like the rest of us in the aggregate. Now, if you are an individual and sovereign wise well, 'tis a different matter.

Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 19:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77575)
Dollar and Equity Bubble Taking Turn for the Worst

Who didn't see that sell off in the Dow Monday? Looks like we need a fresh scapegoat. There'll be plenty scapegoats on the way down. Speaking of down, the Wall Street Journal finally broke the news. Their title was "No Safe Haven: Dollar's Slide Reflects Wariness About U.S." I got the tip early Monday morning and went out to buy a paper, marking the first time I've looked at the WSJ since promising myself never to pick it up again, a little over a year ago. Now, the day they get the headline right is the day they get my subscription. Before the bull market in gold is over we predict they will. Thus, one day, not too long into the future, the headline will read: Gold Is Money.

Black Blade: Interesting article, but maybe the title should be: "Can You Find the Bubble?" in reference to the financial media hype over a supposed "gold bubble". Good Gold charts!

Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 19:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77576)
Will stocks go nowhere for years?
Investment firm forecasts a stagnant market and says history supports its claim


June 4 � After two years of watching stock prices head steadily lower, most investors probably concede that the outsized returns of the late 1990s are gone forever. But are they ready to accept the possibility that the broad stock market might go nowhere for years to come?

Black Blade: Why sit on risky investments like stocks especially if they are not expected to provide any return for years?

(06/05/2002; 19:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77577)
As FOA/Trailguide and ANOTHER said, the pricing systems (LBMA and COMEX) will lose all credibility for the pricing of GOLD in time as GATA/INTERNET uncovers the charade and PHYSICAL separates from PAPER GOLD. Then it will result in the many seated at the great table of this forum to do the pricing!!!!!! ;) Couldn't be any worse than the current systems. Let us now bow our heads and say a prayer that the GOLD CARTEL brings back the strong dollar, gives us cheap oil prices, lower gold prices, cheap imported good, etc. at least for another 20 years until I die, so I can accumulate PHYSICAL for my sons! I do not want INTERESTING TIMES!!!
Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 19:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77578)
California Orders Power-Plant Owners to Delay Repairs in Heat∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APP43yRYfQ2FsaWZv

Folsom, California, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- California power- plant owners were ordered by the state's electricity transmission network to defer maintenance shutdowns because of concern that the current heat wave may lead to power shortages.

California's Independent System Operator forecast demand may reach a peak of 40,691 megawatts, which would be the highest so far this year. The order is in effect from 6:11 a.m. local time through 10:59 p.m., said Gregg Fishman a spokesman.

The warning was the second this year by the system operator because of hot weather, which increases the use of air conditioners and electricity demand. Last summer, high temperatures and a shortage of power led to almost daily warnings, Fishman said. ``It is looking a little tighter today than we originally thought,'' he said. ``We still think we'll be able to get through the day without any rotating outages.''

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers didn't learn anything from the last energy crisis. Now they will probably have to go through it all again. The state may need to raise taxes and build new power generating facilities and upgrade the state's antiquated energy grid.
(06/05/2002; 19:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77579)
Snippit :

India's military is seeking final authorisation to invade the Pakistani side of divided Kashmir in the middle of this month to destroy the camps of Islamic militants.

A senior Indian official accused Britain, America and other western countries of "adding their weight to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail" by telling their citizens to leave.

"This is jumping the gun," he said. "Our intention is not to have an all-out war. It would be a limited action."

Most senior Indian officers expect that the conflict would last about a week before pressure from America and other powers forced a ceasefire.

One officer said he believed there was only the "slimmest chance" of nuclear weapons being used. "We will call Pakistan's nuclear bluff," he said. It [the nuclear factor] cannot deter us any more."
(06/05/2002; 19:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77580)
I forgot ...

More Snippits :

The Indians want to move before the arrival of heavy monsoon rains at the beginning of July make military operations impossible.
(06/05/2002; 19:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77581)
Breaking news on CNBC. Israel attacking Arafat compound. Looks pretty intense.
White Rose
(06/05/2002; 19:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77582)
Prices are only set back a single week
Right now approaching 10pm eastern time, prices are higher than the close. They are $322 Au, $4.94 Ag. I believe, these are the prices we first hit (during this run-up) a week ago. In other words, selling 700,000 oz. to the Kangaroos only set the clock back a single week.

The next time someone tries to sell a million oz of gold at odd hours, the price will go down, but by not as much. The whole market learns by each of these experiences.

I am learning as I go. The next time I notice a mysery sell-off of gold stocks in late afternoon, I will join in. I will buy back soon afterwards. I will use the profit to buy more physical.

Good hunting.
(06/05/2002; 19:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77583)
Gold plates no longer shut in cupboards. Good show lads.,5036,2-1225-12...
05/06/2002 16:15��-�(SA)��
Gold plates for McCartney do
London - Singer Sir Paul McCartney has invited 300 guests to his Irish wedding to Heather Mills next week and they will dine off gold plates. This is according to a US columnist.
New York Post columnist Cindy Adams said the guests "are all sworn to secrecy, lest this get in the papers".
....."Seated dinner is round tables of 10 in white and gold with 14-inch gold serving plates. I mean, we are talking major elegant here," she link for more�

Chris Powell
(06/05/2002; 20:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77584)
How the BIS was rigging gold even 20 years ago the Bank for International Settlements was openly
rigging the gold price even 20 years ago:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
(06/05/2002; 20:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77585)
War Poll
I would like to know what ALL of you think about the folowing :

1) Please give your odds of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan within the next 6 months :

2) If such a nuclear 'exchange' (always loved that word ... so sanitary) occurs, what will be the minimum amount the spot gold price increases in the days/weeks following.

My answers :

1) Better than 50 percent.

2) At least $ 50

I think that it will occur either in the next 2 weeks or just after the monsoons stop in 2 months.

Most importantly, a Indo-Pak war represents yet another event/series of events leading to the Fourth Turning Crisis as I have mentioned many times before on this website (see :

Economically, and even environmentally it will have small effects outside of the affected region. However, psychologically it's effect will be DEVASTATING. Just like in timing the stock/gold market it is not the event itself that is important, but the PERCEPTION of the event that moves markets.

An Indo-Pak war is another in a string of UNTHINKABLE/NEVER HAPPEN IN A LIFETIME type events that will alter the mindset of the entire world in these few short years between 2000 - 2005.

Cavan Man
(06/05/2002; 20:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77586)
Chris Powell
All the central banks were rigging gold twenty years ago. In fact, the "rigging" as you so aptly put it goes back longer than that I bet.

The difference today is the changing global monetary landscape. We've had no change in over thirty years. That's a long time without any change in the history of money as we know/knew it.

I think a good question to ask at some point is, could the BIS change course and go long; GO GOLD?
(06/05/2002; 21:03:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77588)
How the BIS was rigging gold even 20 years ago
Thanks to Chris Powell and Sean Corrigan for that!That was an incredibly revealing look at the inner workings of the BIS...With all the other information to be gleaned nowadays re CBs', Rothschilds, Rockefellers etc etc etc, one must wonder (at least I do) if the so called Cabal can just go on doing their dirty work forever....Talk about David and Goliath!!!! Somehow I fear that even thru a world war they could just find new ways to get fatter and although Gold may indeed soar for those that hold the physical, the game would not change...Hmmmm, more food for thought.
Brett Woods
(06/05/2002; 21:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77589)

Dinsa Mehta, who professed to know better
Abandoned ideas as soon as they fettered his
Swagger and strutt and condemning rebutt,
His polished tooth leer and proud sigh of "putt"
And all of the City folk, save as they may brought
Their wagons with dollars to Hamilin that day
With the wonderfull feeling of being correct;
The groovy group swaying and marching in step.
All out of Hamilin and onto the cliffs where
The waves of time writhe and spatter and hiss
With a pot of gold, sold at the edge of the cliff
To later be bought with the pot in the mist.

Mehta was piping and dancing a twist.
Oh, the cries of "Efficiency!" rang in the air
As arm in arm, bankers hugged; greedy to share
With childish delight, the shout of the barker and
The shimmering light. And details of mergers
Were smoothed in the night. And where there
Were five, behold! There are two. Gone was diversity,
And born anew, a thoroughbred prancing, a single
Fine strain like a mountain meadow replaced with one grain,
Agreement and fullfillment the same, yet one common cold,
One ailment or woe...

With a leader so fine to stand at the front, how
Could any commoner wish less than to stand
Shoulder to shoulder, pike beside pike in rows
Back to front?

"Where shall we march?" "Where Mehta says!"
Over the bridge we see stretch from the ledge
And on to gold we must buy and replace!

And when the time came, at the seargent's call,
"Left! Right!" Dinsa Mehta stepped lightly sideways
And bent to look at the prettiest of daisies
Sprouting from a low green nook. All of a sudden
His bloated frame shook with disease and he thought
Of what pleasure he might have with a book. He danced
A quick jig, decanted a swig and with a stroke of his pen,
Resigned there and then. He danced off stage right with
A demure "Good night!" as easy as standing and leaving
The table from a good game of poker, while one is still able.

There's more of course, about the muddle and hoarse cries,
The confusion, and the lessons to be learned regarding
Diversity of opinion...

~Brett Woods

Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 21:11:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77590)
Rumor Just Out - Arafat Dead

I haven't heard anything concrete, but some Middle Eastern analyst on CNN said that Arafat may have been executed by Israeli troops. Still looking for confirmation. I just read that Bush talked to Sharon and in the discussion he said: "do you plan to kill Arafat?" Sharon: "No" Bush: "That's good". If true this could actually create more problems. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 21:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77591)
Sierra Madre (# 77564)
If this is really what they're working towards (not too hard to see it happening), SA would become one big "bullion bank". I'd be willing to bet ya wouldn't see any hedging though!
(06/05/2002; 21:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77592)
@CavenMan Central Banks...Could They Go Long?
If it serves their national interest...Of Course!The current paradigm is the dollar and US promises to repay its debt.

In two weeks all that could change. Especially the next two weeks.

If central banks see US dominance failing, stability evaporating, they could go long simply by not selling [Watch the Swiss on this one] or lending bullion. They could frustrate Greenspan by a strict adherence to the WA [They already HAVE in large measure], no matter what. Sure the bankers could run for the hills. It's not like they have deep ideals or a moral compass. They have participated in one of the dirtiest criminal activities in the history of civilization. Are we to expect them to act honorably and stand by the US?

Three guesses.

What would happen when they bolt? POG rockets. The Fed tries to "Buy" gold mines, only to find out that corporate by-laws have been changed, poison pills invoked and their mighty exit plan has fizzled....the Eddie George called it.

The future will not be like the past.
(06/05/2002; 21:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77593)
If Arafat Is TU
Gold could be at $400 by morning!
Solomon Weaver
(06/05/2002; 21:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77594)
Answer for Nomad
Chances of Nuclear used in India Pakistan in next six months......less than 1%. India would have to have engaged in a brutal ground war with very heavy losses before Pakistan would do this...they may be proud, but they do not want to go into the history books along with USA as the only to use nukes.

Price of gold even if it happened would fall as world would once again consider dollar a safe haven.

Poor old Solomon
Cavan Man
(06/05/2002; 21:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77595)
Good find by Sean and Chris. The BIS is a distinctly European institution though having global membership; at lest that is my impression. I wonder what their opinion is of the economic/financial/monetary challenges we face here in the west. I wonder if the BIS was consulted about the Euro. I simply wonder.
(06/05/2002; 22:11:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77596)
Focus on "Anything But Gold Derivatives" says Goldman Sachs CEO CEO calls for U.S. accounting crackdown
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - The chief executive of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs called on Wednesday for changes to a U.S. financial system consumed these days by self-doubt, including a crackdown on accountants.

Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 22:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77597)
Arafat Safe

CNN reports that Arafat is safe in his office. The rumor now is that Israel would like to exile him from the West Bank. Meanwhile heavy fighting is reported around the compound.

- Black Blade
(06/05/2002; 23:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77598)
Gold Conference
I attended the Gold Conference today and it was fabulous (BTW CarlH....not to worry...Bill Murphy is here in Vancouver). First a note about the demographics which I found interesting...of approximately the five hundred participants, I would guess that 95% were male over the age of about 40...interesting. The individual presentations by Bob Chapman, David Tice, David Morgan, and Ian Gordon were captivating, but by far the most interesting was the closing panel of the above mentioned names (except Morgan), along with Bill Murphy and James Turk. Some very brief highlights include:
- Bob Chapman sees the US having to raise interest rates to support the dollar (by August, I believe), which will lead to an increase in the M3 to buoy up the economy. He sees the DOW going to 8200 or lower, and POG going to $512.00 within the next year, or even $850.00 "depending on what happens".
- David Tice spoke about excessive credit growth in the 90's resulting in asset price inflation which leads to negative savings rates and the massive current account deficit. He sees real estate as being the method of keeping credit in the system while keeping the consumer happy, which will in turn, make the correction/decline all the more enormous. He sees consumption slowing due to the high levels of personal debt, and when it stops it will decimate the economy. He sees weakening of both the Can. and US dollar, with the CHF becoming the strongest currency, and Gold going to $700.00 within the next year.
- David Morgan - of course he sees the smartest money in silver.
- Bill Murphy " Gold is going to melt-up like Enron melted's the gold derivitive neutron's's going to blow." He sees POG $500/600 - $800.00 within the next year.

The energy, synergy and interest at the conference today was fabulous. I asked a few people in discussion where they get their Gold information from...all said USAGold, but none post...interesting. Both Bill Murphy and James Turk speak individually tomorrow...looking forward to it. Thanks to all for the news and posts today. Cheers!
(06/05/2002; 23:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77599)
Silver Lease Rates Moving Up

Silver lease rates had been edging down over the past couple of weeks. Today they appear to have made a substantial turn-around and are again heading north. Silver is alone in this as the 3 other PM's show little movement. Worth watching??
(06/06/2002; 00:01:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77600)
Interesting Article about the Sudden Price Drop Yesterday
Been away as I misplaced my password and just found it a few days ago!

No's an interesting read......Why gold tanked

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: 2002/06/05 Wed 20:14 ZE2 | � Miningweb 1997-2002

JOHANNESBURG � South African gold stocks were massacred today as freefalling bullion knocked almost 8 percent off the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's gold index. The fall in the bourse's gold stocks came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz and finally to $321/oz, where some dealers reckon it has found support.
Interestingly, one senior Johannesburg-based trader says the long-liquidation by the fund appears to have been an intentional strategy to lower the gold price. He could not give reasons for the fund's alledged intent, although he said it could have been a move designed to lower the gold price in order to buy in again at lower levels. The sale was executed using the 'Access' system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

The trader said the sale was made in an illiquid market, between the New York close yesterday and the opening of the Tokyo market this morning.

"They also sold illiquid months and that pushed the price down. It was definitely someone trying to butcher the market," said the trader. The deal was done for 2,000 December contracts, a particularly thin month, and 3,000 August contracts. It sparked a series of stop-loss selling which the trader said created a feeding frenzy among those long gold bullion; this brought on the long liquidation many market commentators have warned of in recent weeks.

But the bullish undertone in the market remains firmly in place, despite today's spectacular $9/oz fall in the price. Another bullion dealer said the metal would do well to consolidate at the lower levels before launching another assault at the key $330/oz mark. "We all knew it had to take a bit of a breather. This fall has been quite drastic but if it had fallen slower we would just have said it was just what the market needed," said the dealer.

He said upside for the metal was still in place as it continued to track the Euro.

The European currency's downward correction against the dollar last night, he said, was also a factor weighing on the gold price. The trader said, however, that the Euro was expected to strengthen further against the dollar from its current levels of around $0.935, which in turn would lift the gold price.

But that will be cold comfort for gold share traders who took a haircut in the market today. In Johannesburg, Gold Fields, the darling of the market last month, dropped 10.49 percent to R129.43, while non-hedging rival Harmony Gold lost 8.82 percent to R163.60.

Durban Roodepoort Deep dumped 6.18 percent to close on R51.65 and AngloGold, the bourse's number one dropped 6 percent from yesterday's record close to R628 a share. New entrant ARMGold lost 4.2 percent to R55.85 and junior Afrikander Lease took a 9.09 percent hammering to R6.36.

In Australia, the dip was less marked. Auriongold, the subject of a takeover bid by North American Placer Dome, shed 1.74 percent, while number two producer Newcrest dipped 1.09 percent to A$8.19.

(06/06/2002; 00:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77601)
Golden Bar...Ed Bugos Latest...Excellent! Compare the so called Gold Bubble to Real One

Now, the day they get the headline right is the day they get my subscription. Before the bull market in gold is over we predict they will. Thus, one day, not too long into the future, the headline will read: Gold Is Money.

By then maybe our headline will be the Gold Bubble!

Those clever analysts at Barclays beat us to it though. They say there's a bubble in gold prices today. So just to be thorough we went and looked at some graphs to get a handle on this breaking news.

Were we ever let down. To think that such a solid tip from as reputable a source as Barclays Capital could turn out to be a lemon, well, we were in dismay to say the least. They could use a good bubble analyst, preferably one that has more than just a lamentable understanding of money. If one can't tell the difference between what a bubble is and what it isn't, how can they know what is safe?

Maybe it's because we've been showing too many of those short-term charts lately, or maybe Barclays' charting service doesn't have long-term graphs. I don't know, but someone show me where there is a bubble in this market, please.

Cont'd @ Link....
(06/06/2002; 00:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77602)
Destruction of Worlds Currencies...Larry Parks.....(FAME) Link....

**THIS IS A "MUST SEE"...the loss of buying power is phenominal.....YGM

Concluding remarks....

As can be seen from the above chart, that world's experience with fiat money for the period 1950 to 1990 has been a disaster for ordinary people. Countries such as Argentina, which, as of this writing on 5/31/02, is in the midst of yet another currency collapse, do not have a clue that the source of their problem is that their money is no good.

With results such as these, it would appear that any faith in fiat money is entirely misplaced. It should be noted, too, that this kind of chart is unlikely to appear on the pages of any major media outlet, nor on the pages of any current economics text book.

(06/06/2002; 01:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77603)
In a hurry....
Euroland (France finance's minister) wants a "stable" euro BUT NOT NECESSARY A STRONG EURO !!!!
Explains a lot about the overnight deal > trade of minus 9$ on POG ! To be continued....
(06/06/2002; 01:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77604)
The Dollar
New York, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop as much as 15 percent against major currencies in the next two years, extending a four-month slide as demand for U.S. assets wanes, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
J.P. Morgan forecasting models show that ``fair value'' for the dollar is $1-to-$1.05 per euro and 105-to-110 yen.
(06/06/2002; 01:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77605)
US Portfolio Inflows - Disillusion vs. Dependence (Morgan Stanley)
After a sluggish start this year, net US portfolio inflows soared to nearly $67 billion in March versus $11.4 billion and $15.4 billion, respectively, in January and February. We harbor doubts as to the sustainability of such robust inflows, but we do not subscribe to the budding consensus that the world is poised to sell the US short.
But we think there is another dynamic at work that will stymie a dramatic resurgence in US capital inflows. Inflows have become bifurcated, with diminished flows from Euroland increasingly offset by rising flows from Asia.
The appetite among Euroland investors for US securities is just not what it used to be.
European investors are growing increasingly disillusioned with US securities, lacking faith in the US profits recovery and the overall quality of earnings.
In Japan and non-Japan Asia, the dynamics that worry Euroland investors take a back seat to even greater worries associated with a plunging US dollar that undercuts the global competitiveness of Asia's leading exporters. No country in Asia wants its currency to rally too quickly or too strongly against the dollar, given the region's underlying dependence on the US market for export growth. This has in turn prompted central banks in Japan, Australia, South Korea, and other nations to buy dollar-denominated assets in an effort to staunch the dollar's decline.
One of the biggest risks we see to continued demand for US assets lies with the growing attraction to gold. According to the World Gold Council, purchases of gold investments surged 36% in the first quarter, with strong demand emanating from Vietnam, Japan, China, and Pakistan. In Japan alone, demand for gold more than doubled in the first quarter of this year from the same period a year ago. As global uncertainties continue to mount, America's lender of last resort � Asia � may be tempted to shift dollar-denominated assets to gold, a development that would undermine the last pillar of dollar support.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(06/06/2002; 03:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77606)
War Against Terrorism yielding fruits - BP to build its longest ever pipeline (Reuters) - Oil major BP (LSE: BP.L - news - msgs) says it will start building its longest ever pipeline from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan next year, with the Caspian oil set to reach the Mediterranean by 2005.

The head of BP Azerbaijan David Woodward said on Thursday the $2.9-billion (two billion pounds) Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, once dismissed as too costly and a link lacking in oil, was now inevitable.

(06/06/2002; 03:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77607)
Electric Market Analysis from a Mises Institute Economist

No doubt, both congressional and FERC staffers (and even their superiors) know what went wrong in California and why it happened. For that matter, even California Gov. Gray Davis declared that the crisis would be over if he were to permit retail electricity prices to increase, but then he said that was an unacceptable solution. However, if these folks actually were to declare publicly that the problem was not with electricity producers and distributors but rather with the politicians and bureaucrats who hatched the scheme, then their game would be over. Moreover, if a free market were to be enacted in both intrastate and interstate markets, then the politicians and bureaucrats would find themselves in that most terrible (for them) condition: irrelevance.

(06/06/2002; 03:35:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77608)
Is The Declining Dollar "Checkmate" For Mr. Greenspan?
---But if the US dollar continues to depreciate, which I think it will with only minor countertrend rallies, then Mr. Greenspan is going to lose the policy latitude to keep printing greenbacks at will. Ironically, though, until Greenspan takes action to slow the dollar's decline, he will be forced to print even more dollars.----

Spartacus: Don�t miss this one. An impressing economic commentary by Paul Kasriel.
(06/06/2002; 04:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77609)
What's up wit POG and POS??
Good Lord! Ya leave for one day, a one-day trip to Hannover to see a silly little horse show, and what happens?? The POG and POS drops through the floor! What did you all do to the market?? eh?? Who is responsible??
Speaking of which...I need to go see my horse now too. Just got back from cutting her out of a fence. She rolled over into it. Silly fillie!
(06/06/2002; 06:25:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77610)
Crash Warning For June 11 and doom for those who do not have Gold.
koala bear
(06/06/2002; 06:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77611)
Looking for a book review
Could someone post a review of Ferdinand Lips� book, �Gold Wars�? I am contemplating buying it and would appreciate an opinion on it. I think Golden Bear said he had just acquired a copy. Any good?
Tommy P
(06/06/2002; 06:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77612)
A view point , good read

Gold/Stock Market Manipulation -
Plunge Protection Team At Work?
Commentary Certified Mint Inc.

Today, the gold market saw the price correction that many analysts, especially those with bearish biases, have been predicting since gold crossed $290. Actually, the drop started last night in the ACCESS, an electronic system operated by NYMEX where gold trades along with the Asian and the Australian markets. (ACCESS lets the New York houses keep a piece of the 24-hour gold market. NYMEX owns ACCESS, and also COMEX. ACCESS closes 20 minutes before the COMEX opens, where the exchange members make their really big money.)

Shortly after ACCESS opened, some 700,000 to 800,000 ounces were dumped. The always politically correct World Gold Council suggested in its Daily Commentary that the selling was due to technical analysis. Some analysts immediately saw the work of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), which they say has conspired to keep the Dow Industrials from collapsing and the price of gold from skyrocketing. Here,��s one private analyst's view:

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) has commented on the fact that every time the stock market gets poised for a major break [down], someone (PPT?) rushes in with a well orchestrated plan to counter the bearish move. Tuesday was a perfect example of this, because after the market action on the previous Thursday and Friday failed to turn the tide back up, the action on Monday looked very bad, forcing the PPT to a special effort on Tuesday.

During the day, they persuaded Barton Biggs to put out a bullish statement on stocks. Biggs has been a bear, and I personally doubt he has seen enough evidence to change his mind without sufficient arm twisting by the Wall Street establishment. After all, he is part of that club, and he has been on the outside in the past few months. I feel certain his reversal went a long way to bring buying into stocks with other actions by the PPT.

Next there was a bear raid on the price of gold after the New York close (the dumping of 700,000 to 800,000 ounces). To aid in that bear raid, someone got to Caroline Baum and persuaded her to write an attack on gold ownership.

It seems very convenient from the standpoint of the PPT that Richard Russell's voice was stilled at least for a little while when his website went down. I have wondered for some time how the "Powers that Be" could let Russell preach the bear case for stocks, the bull case for gold, and expressly expose the fraud imposed on the world by the fiat dollar, without somehow trying to close him down. Is it possible the PPT hacked his website?

All of these efforts to change the bearish tide in the stock market and the bullish tide in the gold market are nothing more than delaying tactics in a financial war where short term battles are won but the war will ultimately be lost as unalterable forces push events to their inevitable conclusion.

Now, the question: is this the correction or is it the first day of a correction that will last for weeks, perhaps bringing gold back to the $300 level. Most assuredly, the bears will see this as the start of a major correction. Some will declare gold's rally to be over. Like the recession that never was, to the bears this will be the rally that never was--if gold is driven significantly lower.

However, like the analyst noted above said, these are delaying tactics by an army that is losing. In the end, unalterable forces will push events to their inevitable conclusion. Paper money will not--cannot--triumph over gold. Investors need to prepare for what's going to happen over next three years, not the next three weeks or three months.

Email This Article
(06/06/2002; 07:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77613) Crash Indices...... not into crash mode except Internet stuff.....
(06/06/2002; 08:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77614)
Cliff Droke Re-Visited...Stage Set for Monumental 2002 Crash....

One of the very few investment advisers reviewed by Mansfield that we agree with is Bernard Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research. Schaeffer has a track record of being right on the market more often than not, so his predictions have weight. Here is how he answered the Year 2002 survey: Dow forecast: Decline to 8,000 or lower: Yes. NASDAQ forecast: Bottomed in Sept. '01: No. Decline below 1500: Yes. Rally to 2500-2800 area: No. Secular bear market: Yes. Market at current level is: Overvalued. Reduce equity exposure on near-term strength: Yes. Post "9-11" tragedy present any positions: Gold. U.S. economy will stay in recession: Yes. Industry group favorites: Gold. 5 best stocks: KKD, NVDA, NEM, ODP, PCLN.

Here is how he summarizes the market situation for 2002: "Wall Street strategists are the most bullish since the 1990s, the same group that was bearish heading in the rally beginning in late-1994. These high expectations leave the market vulnerable in the midst of the current bear market, optimism about the economy in 2002 and little signs of a "V-type" recovery. Full capitulation has yet to come." We concur with Mr. Schaeffer's assessment.

The bears will come out far and away the big winners on Wall Street in 2002. The "big one" we've all been waiting for will shortly begin, and with it will come a multitude of precious opportunities. Are you prepared?

Clif Droke

The Victorian
(06/06/2002; 08:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77615)
Dollar is dropping like a stone again
I wonder what's up now. I noticed POG was rising and checked the dollar index, to find it dropping off a cliff again. Time to turn on the news and see what is going on in the world?
(06/06/2002; 08:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77616)
(No Subject)
Most of the banks that make up the FED and many other banks, corporations and state entities and others with huge short positions are buying into junior gold stocks in order to cover their short positions indirectly by buying major stakes in these in ground gold holdings. Also the Bank of Japan is trying to hold up the dollar so the Japanese publicv can liquidate US$ denominated securities before liquidity is a problem. The Carlyle Group is shorting entire indexes and they can push this market down all by themselves no matter what the PPT does. We on thei forum should use our individual knowledge to list 5 gold stocks that will do the best from this day June 6th thil next June 6th. I as an individual would be willing to donate $100.00 to the winner who can come up with the best gold stock gainers listed before the last day of JULY. Keep in mind that there won;t be a winner declared until after the market closing of next year June the 6th.
(06/06/2002; 08:33:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77617)
If there is validity to the theory of "PPT", then at what point will the US government own the GE's and IBM's? And as major shareholders don't they have to disclose this?
barnacle bill
(06/06/2002; 08:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77618)
koala bear
Gold Wars - book reviewI don't have time to write a full-length book review. I will say that I have read a lot of books on the subject; and that I would certainly place Gold Wars among the top three.

In other words - buy it! You'll be glad you did.
barnacle bill
(06/06/2002; 09:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77619)
TommyP Re#77612
article by Caroline BaumI read the article by Ms Baum, I found it sophomoric at best. Ms Baum says that there are two situations for the ownership of gold. The first is rising interest rates, and the second is inflation. She must have overlooked the fact that India and Pakistan are about to nuke each other. She said nothing about currency instability, or gold price manipulation, to name a few other situations.

She went on to say that gold is expensive to hold. She mentioned Treasury Bills, notes, and bonds as alternatives. She could have said 'pick a domino, any domino'.

She also said that Japanese buying gold makes no sense, as cash gains in a deflationary enviroment. True enough as far as the cash gains part goes, but will the yen still be around?

Gold is eternal.
The Hoople
(06/06/2002; 09:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77620)
Familiar script, different ending?
After a suspicious gold bash yesterday right on cue the WSJ sees fit to publish prominently on C-1 a story "Was That the End of the Gold-Price Rally?", sub-titled "Is Current Rally a "Trojan" Horse?" Kaplan, Gero, WGC are all trotted out to urge extreme caution. I've never seen such fear over a measly 20% move in anything, period. They never devoted a C-1 feature when gold rallied. Funny they now hammer the decline in jewelry demand as bearish while no mention is made of Asian, Indian, Arab or Chinese demand for real MONEY. You can smell the fear now on Wall Street. Like the Schwab commercial says its time to put the lipstick on this pig and sell it. These stories will be remembered by the publc when 300% gains are missed,and when 70% more paper losses are incurred. I get more bullish on gold with each insipid WSJ or Barron's story.
Cavan Man
(06/06/2002; 09:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77621)
The Hoople
We're at the end of the game. It's going to be like this.
(06/06/2002; 09:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77622)
Guide to the stock market
Just got this from a friend - author unknown:

Bull Market - A random market movement causing an
investor to mistake himself for a financial genius

Bear Market - A 6 to 18 month period when the kids
get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry and the
husband gets no sex.

Momentum Investing - the fine art of buying high
and selling low

Value Investing - The art of buying low and selling lower

P/E ratio - The percentage of investors wetting
their pants as the market keeps crashing

Broker - what my broker has made me

"Buy, Buy" - A flight attendant making market
recommendations as you step off the plane.

Standard & Poor - your life in a nutshell

Stock Analyst - idiot who just downgraded your stock

Stock Split - when your ex-wife and her lawyer
split all your assets equally between themselves

Financial Planner - A guy who actually remembers his
wallet when he runs to the 7-11 for toilet paper and cigarettes

Market Correction - The day after you buy stocks

Cash Flow - the movement your money makes as it
disappears down the toilet

Yahoo - What you yell after selling it to some poor
sucker for $240 per share

Windows 2000 - What you jump out of when you're the
sucker that bought Yahoo @240 per share

Institutional Investor - Past year investor who's
now locked up in a nuthouse

Profit - religious guy who talks to God

Alan Greenspan - God

Bill Gates - Where God goes for a loan
The Hoople
(06/06/2002; 10:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77623)
My favorite quote was from Woody Allen: "Investment professionals are people who help you invest your money until it's all gone".
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/06/2002; 10:30:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77624)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

(06/06/2002; 11:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77625)
h.schultz and j.sinclair
posted today on le metro cafe--can anyone copy and paste it here?
(06/06/2002; 11:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77626)
shelllus reprint request
Any wholesale copying & pasting effort would have to be subsequently removed from our forum per the standing request/direction of Mr. Murphy as proprietor of the site that is the source of the material you are seeking.

In order to avoid copyright infringements, I would urge anyone having an interest in filling your repost request that they instead try to emulate what I do with news articles -- carefully choose some brief excerpts that represent the key point, and follow up with discussion of its relevance to the gold market or to a person's potential finanancial well-being.

Anyone interested in exploring the ideas further may then visit the full article and provide additional discussion as they see fit to do so. Finally, I hope this guidance has been taken as helpful rather than stifling for future contributors to the Forum.

Sierra Madre
(06/06/2002; 12:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 77627)
A brief pause amid the concerns of the day....

Rudyard Kipling

WHEN first by Eden Tree,
The Four Great Rivers ran.
To each was appointed a Man
Her Prince and Ruler to be.

But after this was ordained,
(The ancient legends tell),
There came dark Israel,
For whom no River remained.

Then He Whom the Rivers obey
Said to him: fling on the ground
A handful of yellow clay,
And a Fifth Great River shall run,
Mightier than these Four,
In secret the Earth around;
And Her secret evermore,
Shall be shown to thee and thy Race.�

So it was said and done.
And, deep in the veins of Earth,
And, fed by a thousand springs
That comfort the market-place,
Or sap the power of Kings,
The Fifth Great River had birth,
Even as it was foretold�
The Secret River of Gold!

And Israel laid down
His sceptre and his crown
To brood on that River bank,
Where the waters flashed and sank,
And burrowed in earth and fell,
And bided a season below,
For reason that none might know,
Save only Israel.

He is Lord of the Last�
The Fifth, most wonderful, Flood.
He hears Her thunder past
And Her Song is in his blood.
He can foresay: �She will fall,�
For he knows which fountain dries;
Behind which desert-belt
A thousand leagues to the South.
He can foresay: �She will rise.�
He knows what far snows melt:
Along what mountain-wall
A thousand leagues to the North.
He snuffs the coming drouth
As he snuffs the coming rain,
He knows what each will bring forth,
And turns it to his gain.

A Ruler without a Throne,
A Prince without a Sword,
Israel follows his quest.
In every land a guest,
Of many lands a lord,
In no land King is he.
But the Fifth Great River keeps
The secret of Her deeps
For Israel alone,
As it was ordered to be.

(06/06/2002; 12:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77628)
The Hoople & Cavan Man (77620 & 77621) - Observations
Pretty intriquing insight from both of you on this WSJ feature. Hoople, did you mean a two percent move rather than twenty or did I miss something. Anyway, the point is well made.

Maybe a fitting quote from King Solomon. A man who owned more gold than anyone in history and will never be equaled. I think he saw the likes of these characters in his day.

It comes from Proverbs 20:14

"It is naught, it is naught, saith the buyer: but when he is gone his way, then he boasteth."
(06/06/2002; 13:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 77629)
@ TheHoople---The Wall Street Journal's Anti-Gold Bias
It Couldn't Have More ClarityThe latest WSJ bugle against gold as an investment represents an important "Dot" on the financial map. It tells us that an editor instructed a writer to bash gold in concert with the Asian (But probably NOT by Asians) selling orgy [700,000 ounces].

Well gold is $325 or so today and the forces of evil have failed AGAIN to smash it downward.

Your observation that things will get real hot with 300% gold equity gains is a good one. Nothing attracts hot money like success unless it's "Too much" protestation from the financial media.

I met with a senior writer for the WSJ and gave him everything...well ALMOST everything. He has ignored me since. It's not that he doesn't believe's that he doesn't WANT to believe us.

For to accept our premise is to admit the pending failure of the US currency and hence the failure of the economy. These dimwit journalists can't seem to visualize the US as Argentina...can't seem to accept that their life savings can be "Evaporated"...that their "Retirement" is all a mirage.

Dick Cheny has told us to expect a terrorist nuclear strike as "...inevitable". The financial media gurus seem to accept THAT but NOT the idea that their Master of the Universe just may be impotent against gold.

They have the "Deer in the Headlights" look.
(06/06/2002; 14:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77630)
Gold Market losses $10 from high to low
In 36 hours of trading
By James Sinclair & HD Schultz

Gold came down from an interday world high just below $330 to a world interday low just above $320 within 36 hours of trading. The gold market appears to have been prepared for this experience by the multitude of bearish reports concerning overbought technicals from interational investment banking houses. As an example Goldman Sachs downgraded major producers saying this week that they had meet their price objectives. However the source of this sell off was not the so-called Gold Cartel personalities.

$330 was a perfect place for gold to have peaked temporarily as it represented highs and lows of trading (resistance areas) formed in 1998, 1999 and 2000. Selling last night and today came from an unnamed international bullion pool, not a fund and was determined in its activity seemingly without regard for price. Selling such as that usually has as its intention the establishments of a price more than volume focused liquidation.

Gold will declare itself in terms of if or not it is the beginning stages of a long-term major bull market NOW. We shall see if Dr. No and Hung Fat are for real. We will know if the derivative squeeze is really at hand. That will be demonstrated by gold's action over the next few days and possibly weeks. Gold can decline to a maximum of $303 but should find support of significance at $317.36 which has the ability to reverse this downdraft.

The high trade of gold was at $329.94 or 61.8% Fibinocci number. That sounds to us as if the downdraft was caused not by the Cartel but rather by Dr. No and Hung Fat themselves to slow down the gold move in order to ease the tensions now building within the central bank community over gold's rapid ascent.

There is a good deal of talk in central banks circles that the goal of Zero Inflation must be muffled. The fear is that Zero Inflation goal of the 1980s is now be equated to a Japanese type of Deflationary experience that is not good for the NASDAQ or S&P indexes. They both looked yesterday like death rolled over. If the major indexes were to collapse here and now the incipient economic recovery (not profits recovery) might come to a screeching halt and reverse into a Japanese type economic disease. Dr. No and Hung Fat know that if gold's rise does not get extreme now, it is tolerable and will not bring in central bank opposition.

In conclusion: the primary Asian Bulls sold off this gold market, not the usual suspects, the gold cartel brokers Morgan and Goldman. The Major Bulls are shaking the tree. If the gold market holds by not falling below the Fibinocci 50% 317.36 then the full bull is on right now and right here. Assuming that the $303- $305 which is the Fibinocci 38.2% level holds, the gold bull market is still on but with ease and determination, not excitement and fury.

contact HD Schultz

JE Sinclair CEO & Chairman TNX
(06/06/2002; 14:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77631)
Mr. Warner's afternoon gold report: Make this URL your first visit each day after the close

June 6, 2002 ( -- Gold rebounded off of recent selling to close higher at $325.50 by the close of trading in New York. The Comex Gold and silver futures were boosted to session highs on Thursday, supported by an easing in the U.S. dollar and a lower stock market according to floor traders. OsterDowJones at reports one floor trader as saying "We saw some good buying from Morgan Stanley and Chase Bank. It looks like the dollar came off a little bit and the equities fell, so they started buying gold."

Another positive for gold is that Newmont Mining reports it expects to unwind 1 million more ounces of hedges in 2002. Also helping gold, according to dealers, were a fall in the dollar to a new 16-month low against the euro...

...The dollar may decline as much as 15 percent against its biggest rivals in the next two years, extending a four-month slide as demand for U.S. assets wanes, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. The dollar's slide since February is ``the real deal,'' said Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at J.P. Morgan. ``You're not going to have enough flows'' of money from abroad to push the currency higher. Demand for U.S. debt is also waning. Net purchases of Treasury bonds by non-U.S. investors in the first quarter were 30 percent less than a year earlier...

--------(click URL for full text)-------

Another excellent overview. Warning to readers: visiting this page could be habit forming.
(06/06/2002; 14:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77632)
Very funny Posts from Luckypierre and Hoople's Woody Allen Quote
Thanks for the humor. A good laugh...

(06/06/2002; 14:26:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77633)
The Black Blade Habit
What do you mean TownCrier? "could be habit forming". It's a little late for that warning.....

Thanks to both...
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 14:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77634)
Telco debt now exceeds S&L, junk bond levels - May delay U.S. rate hikes

The U.S. economy's exposure to telecom debt is almost as large as its exposure to the 1980s savings and loan crisis and the 1990s junk bond failure combined, new research shows. The massive debt load, along with the fact that business spending is likely to remain moribund for some time, will likely keep the U.S. Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year, Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said in a report yesterday "I'm saying there will be no meaningful recovery in business spending this year and therefore I don't think the Fed will go," Mr. Rubin said.

Black Blade: Bigger than S&L and Junk Bond failure combined? Hmmm� Yep, looks like an economic recovery all right.

Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 14:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77635)
Is The Declining Dollar "Checkmate" For Mr. Greenspan?

I have always maintained that so long as Mr. Greenspan could keep "printing" dollars at will, the economic checkmate from the burst 1990s' stock market bubble could be delayed. And, as the chart below shows, Mr. Greenspan did indeed print a lot of dollars last year. On a year-over-year basis, M2 growth went from about 6% at the end of 2000 to about 9% just before September 11, 2001. The spike right after September 11 was due to a lot of bank credit extended to cover overdrafts resulting from disruptions in the payments system. Even though M2 growth has slowed this year, the latest reading of 8% still implies a lot of overtime printing activity at the Fed.

But if the US dollar continues to depreciate, which I think it will with only minor countertrend rallies, then Mr. Greenspan is going to lose the policy latitude to keep printing greenbacks at will. Ironically, though, until Greenspan takes action to slow the dollar's decline, he will be forced to print even more dollars. Here's how that works. Once the forex sharks smell the blood in the water, they will start to borrow dollars in order to sell them for euros, yen or gold.

Black Blade: Check and Mate! Interesting analysis � "short the dollar". As in chess, this time the Knight is pinned against the King, and it is now one "discovered check" after another. Still might be time to get "cheap" Gold and Silver portfolio insurance.

Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 14:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77636)
The Airlines� Recovery Is Stalling

The May reports indicate a recovery for airlines has been stalled. After traffic improved every month from October to March, it worsened in April and for the most part, the reports for May are coming in weaker than expected.

Black Blade: Airline activity is a good barometer of the economy. When business is improving, so is airline traffic. The fact that airlines are falling flat with declining traffic, even after lowering fares and getting a governmnet bail out, is not a very good sign. Yet another sign that the economy is in bad shape. Not much of a recovery.

The CoinGuy
(06/06/2002; 15:06:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77637)
Roach's(MWD) Commentary on the dollar from the Global Economic Forum

You'll need to click on the agreement at the bottom, but coming from Stephen, this is worthy commentary to give consideration. Will also need realplayer or Windows media player.

As a side note, aftermarket trading is looking down right scary...

Got Gold? and for Ski/RPowell - Got Silver?


P.S. TC, Great commentary from Jon Warner
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 15:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77638)
Tech companies raise reserves for bad debts

Investors are hoping the worst is over for tech might not want to know that some leading companies have been quietly bracing for tougher times. Cisco Systems, IBM, Ciena, Hewlett-Packard and others have been raising allowances for deadbeat customers � a sign that no matter what they say publicly, top tech companies are worried about even more bankruptcies amid fallout from the tech implosion. This could foreshadow "things are not going as well as thought," says Aalok Shah, analyst at Pacific Crest.

Black Blade: "things are not going as well as thought" � Yeah, I would say so. Times are tough for these big techies mentioned as well. Cisco earnings are questionable as they are released as Pro Forma and there is the big question of "synthetic leases" and the accounting of employee options. IBM is still laying off thousands � 1,500 more announced this week. Ciena has been spiraling out of control for some time now and has many of the same questions about accounting. HP is laying off a few tens of thousands. Yep, another sign of economic recovery.

Hey Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley is up next at bat on CNBC. Going to discuss weak US Dollar.

Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 15:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77639)
When Scandal Isn't Sexy

What's the biggest stock market story of the past five years? (Hint: It makes Enron look like a rounding error.) The easy winner by any gauge of dollars lost or human beings affected is the telecom bubble, and it's worth asking why this mammoth event sits in the hazy background of most people's consciousness. The explanation is not especially comforting for those of us in the media. Intoxicated by the prospect of data traffic doubling every three or four months indefinitely, telecom firms around the world put down fiber-optic cable as fast as they could. The work cost some $4 trillion over the past five years, at least half of it borrowed. Pause for a moment: That's trillion, with a "t." It is not a word you see all that often in connection with individual industries. For perspective, remember that the entire output of the U.S. economy, the planet's largest by far, is about $10 trillion.

Black Blade: That's right! I have been surprised that no one in the financial media has hit this topic a bit more. So far over 500,000 people from this sector have been tossed upon the growing "Bone Pile", and as many more will be added soon. Someone will be paying the price � guess who that will be. Still a deafening silence from CNBC and CNNfn.

BTW, the unemployment report for the trailing week fell below 400,000. The week prior was revised higher as usual. However, continuing claims rose by 29,000. Oops! Looks like we are still at recession levels. Next weeks data is widely expected to rise.

I was hoping to catch the Roach interview on CNBC, but gotta go to the gym for the daily workout.

(06/06/2002; 15:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77640)
Tech / SM's looking bad for tomorrow morning
Intel gave less than stellar news after the markets closed today, revenues down but with the standard "it will be better in the second half" - yea, how long will they continue that song, well, probably til its correct.

Aftermarket has Intel down 3, Microsoft down 2 (under 50) and the S&P futures have the DOW down to 9500 at the open (based upon 10 to 1 Dow to S&P).

Gold should do well tomorrow, but with the Pres speaking tonite on our loss of freedom's he has in mind, the markets in the morning, should be a real interesting Friday.

Golden Bear
(06/06/2002; 16:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77641)
koala bear (msg#: 77611)
Gold Wars reviewGreetings koala,

ordered it about 1 week ago from that big online retailer that was supposed to go to $400 ;)

Haven't received it yet, living in Oz, it takes about 2-3 weeks to get here... and then I've got to read it.

Will let you know then, and barnacle bill (msg#: 77618) says it's top shelf material.

Can't wait...

(06/06/2002; 17:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77642)
Gonna stay in bed tomorrow......
....gotta hangnail.
(06/06/2002; 17:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77643)
Short & Sweet. . . .
"There is the elusive center of the experience (i.e., the stock bull market), the fantasy that we might become free of economic law." (New Yorker magazine, December, 1999) . . . . . . . . .

Fantasy indeed. . . . . Who told it like it is when Wall Street was busily sinking its fingernails into the American investor's back?


While Wall Street was blowing smoke, we were breathing fire. The real story was being told here at USAGOLD Forum. And not just by us, but our posters too. Day-in, day-out, day after day, we got the message out. Those who listened saved millions. Those who didn't ended up on the wrong side of the ledger in the 21st century financial wars. . . . . . . . . . . Analysis you can rely on. News you can use. Find it here at USAGOLD Forum -- Open 24 hours a day, seven days a week! . . . . . . . . Felix Rohatyn: "Our system of market capitalism requires a high level of Protestant ethic." And absent that??. . . . . . . . How about putting your portfolio on the gold standard? . . . . . . . . . . Congratulations to Black Blade (Jon Warner) on his first set of Daily Market Reports. They are everything we thought they would be . . . . . . . . .
(06/06/2002; 17:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77644)
Telecom Debt - Greenspan checkmate!
For the record, the U.S. economy's exposure to telecom debt is now almost as large as its exposure to the 1980s savings and loan crisis and the 1990s junk bond failure combined. That's according to Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets. If you tally it up, outstanding telecom debt is about 5% of GDP. In 1989, Rubin's report figures that exposure to junk bond debt in 1989 was closer to 3.5% of GDP. In the late 1980s, it cost taxpayers about 3% of GDP to bail out the S&L industry. Based on the Fed's willingness to keep rates low for months and months following the above two disasters, Rubin's betting on a similar performance this time around.
(06/06/2002; 17:51:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77645)
Anyone we know planning on going to Iraq?'Decisive Response' Needed to Iraq Threat -
Thu Jun 6, 6:07 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) said on Thursday there
was a growing danger of terrorist groups acquiring weapons of mass destruction the United
States says are being developed in Iraq and that this required a decisive response.

"This gathering danger requires the most careful, deliberate and decisive response by
Americans and our allies," Cheney said in a speech to the National Association of
(06/06/2002; 17:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77646)
Friends want to go to Iraq too., British defense chiefs say Iraq poses
growing threat
Thu Jun 6, 2:15 AM ET

By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer

BRUSSELS, Belgium - The United States and Britain, partners for more than a decade in
containing Iraq's military might, say the regime of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) poses an
increasing threat.

"We know that Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq has had a sizable appetite for weapons of
mass destruction," and it is finding ways to acquire their ingredients, Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld said Wednesday.

"We know the borders into that country are quite porous," he added, allowing Iraq to import
technologies useful for both civilian and military industries "as well as illicit materials that are
helpful in their programs for weapons of mass destruction."

"There is not a doubt in the world that with every month that goes by, their programs
mature," he said in London before flying to Brussels for meetings Thursday and Friday with
NATO (news - web sites) allies.

Iraq denies it possesses or is developing weapons of mass destruction, but it has refused to
allow the international inspections that it accepted as a condition of ending the 1991 Gulf War
(news - web sites).

Rumsfeld would not discuss the possibility of U.S. military action to topple Saddam, saying
that was a matter for President George W. Bush (news - web sites) to decide. He spoke at a joint
news conference with British Defense Minister Geoff Hoon after meetings to discuss Iraq and
other issues.
(06/06/2002; 17:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77647)
Iraq Inspectors May Return to Iraq
Mon Jun 3, 7:24 PM ET

By EDITH M. LEDERER, Associated Press Writer

UNITED NATIONS (AP) - U.N. weapons inspectors are preparing for
a possible return to Iraq, studying satellite photos, looking at
possible sites to visit, and working on a list of disarmament
issues that Baghdad still must answer, the U.N. inspection agency
said in a report Monday.
(06/06/2002; 18:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77648)
Iraq...may last post today on iraq but it looks like we're going soon. Backs Offensive vs. Iraq
Tue Jun 4, 8:31 AM ET

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON (AP) - House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt is
offering support to the Bush administration if it decides to use
force to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites).

"I share President Bush (news - web sites)'s
resolve to confront this menace head-on,"
the Missouri Democrat, a likely
presidential contender in 2004, said in a
speech prepared for delivery on Tuesday
(06/06/2002; 18:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77649)
If you could only see....
....what I have seen with your eyes.....something is UP!
(06/06/2002; 18:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77650)
Kulow and Kramer on Gold stocks
Next segment is on Gold stocks. Should be interesting.
(06/06/2002; 18:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77651)
schultz &sinclair on the selloff
Gold will declare itself in terms of if or not it is the beginning stages of a long-term major bull market NOW. We shall see if Dr. No and Hung Fat are for real. We will know if the derivative squeeze is really at hand. That will be demonstrated by gold's action over the next few days and possibly weeks. Gold can decline to a maximum of $303 but should find support of significance at $317.36 which has the ability to reverse this downdraft.

The high trade of gold was at $329.94 or 61.8% Fibinocci number. That sounds to us as if the downdraft was caused not by the Cartel but rather by Dr. No and Hung Fat themselves to slow down the gold move in order to ease the tensions now building within the central bank community over gold's rapid ascent.

any comments?
(06/06/2002; 18:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77652)
Kudlow and Kramer
I'm in shock. Kramer just stated on CNBC that after 15 years he may have to buy a gold stock. Also, Kudlow acknowledged gold as having a monetary value. Amazing...
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 19:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77653)
Kudlow and Cramer � Gold

What do you know? I come back from the gym just in time to hear the Troll say that he and Kudlow were going to interview the CEO of the best Gold company in the world. I figured that since this was the Heckel and Jeckel show, they must be talking about Barrick. Sure enough, Randall Oliphant was the guest. I have to admit that the interview was not that bad considering the participants. They did address the role of Gold to some degree and that the outlook was good for Gold. Of course there were the wild claims about Barrick being the "best positioned company", however, it was not that bad of an interview. Even the Troll said he might buy a Gold stock now. Oh well, at least the word is getting out.

- Black Blade

Now I will grab a couple of cold Negra Modelos and try to find the "devil in the details" about Dubya's plans to restrict freedom.
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 19:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77654)
Gold Jumps and US Dollar Dips

Anyone watching spot tonight? He's getting a bit frisky again - up $3.30 and the USD is dipping a bit.

- Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 19:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77655)
Black Blade......'Troll?'......
.....not very 'forgiving?'
Carl H
(06/06/2002; 19:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77656)
Black Blade $3.30?
K says +$1.
(06/06/2002; 19:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 77657)
First Friday in June....... we go!!
(06/06/2002; 19:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77658)
Spot on rise
ACME Mercury Rocket kitLets see. Connect cable A to main bus package and main fuel line to throttle control. Yepper getting it all together;0)
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 19:27:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77659)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava Markets Stirring


Meanwhile, another storm is brewing in the energy markets. Although oil prices have pulled back over the last few weeks, oil prices are still running at close to $25 a barrel. Industry experts have drawn criticism from government and environmental groups for issuing warnings that global oil supplies will peak by 2010, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval. Experts ranging from Matthew Simmons, an investment banker, to Colin J. Campbell, a renowned retired geologist, warn that government officials are too caught up in short-term issues to focus their attention on the rapid decline curve of the world's largest western producing oil fields. Campbell said oil companies refuse to talk about it because of the fear of upsetting their investors.

Government officials ignore these predictions as nothing but hot air designed to move officials to lighten up on environmental restrictions in the exploration of new oil and gas reserves. However, Roger Bentley, who heads up The Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London, insists that the predictions made earlier by King Hubbert were right on the money. Since the 1970's over 50 countries, which include the U.S., have now passed their point of peak oil output, and have gone into decline. The U.S., who once used to be self-sufficient in energy, must now import more than 60% of its daily energy needs. Furthermore, as more power plants are being built that will be gas-powered, the U.S. also faces natural gas shortages in the years ahead. The next energy crisis could come as soon as this winter. The last energy crisis ended in 2001 by a combination of events from weather to a declining economy. The most significant influence on total energy demand comes from weather. The U.S. had the good fortune to experience cooler summers and above average temperatures last winter. The weather, more than the recession, helped to bring us out of a crisis. Now we face another El Nino, which could bring warmer summers and a harsher winter. The recent drop in natural gas production by 6% year-over-year and a 45% drop in natural gas drilling due to lower prices has set the stage for another energy crisis by the fourth quarter of this year.

Black Blade: The latest natural gas storage injection data suggests that instead of rising as is normal at this time of year, the injection rates are nearly flat (50�80 bcf/week). We could be running short on NG come late winter. If summer temperatures are warmer than usual and we have a cold winter (as is normal), we might find ourselves in an energy crunch. There is more NG storage because there are more storage facilities that are needed to supply the additional new NG-fired power plants and those planned to come online. Remember that about half of the gas in these new facilities is "cushion gas" that will be needed to pressure the storage so that "working gas" can be withdrawn. Also remember that drilling and production activity has fallen off sharply.

Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 19:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77660)
Re: CarlH and Ozzie
Gold Quote

CRB has Gold up $1.20 from the NY close, while ino has Gold up $3.50 � but that is from the NY open. The changeover for ino is late tonight during trade in Asia, and then runs on till the NY open when it resets again. At least that is what I have noticed in the past. Kitco quotes tend to bounce all over the place and sometimes don't work at all. I do use Kitco graphs for a comparative check on Gold trends. The trading after NY close is however positive on all quote sites. Rather than cycle through various trading sessions around the globe, I just settled on ino from the NY open. Gold is continuing to rise after hours. It appears that Gold will recoup it's recent sell off shortly. Cheers!

Ozzie � maybe Troll (for Cramer) is a bit harsh, however, when I came in and turned on the tube, I thought I heard that puppet voice of "Alf" (the space fur ball?). I did a double take and saw Cramer. What can I say, maybe Troll isn't so harsh. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

(06/06/2002; 19:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77661)
Black Blade....
...Do you ever sleep?...Friend...thank you for the reality.
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 19:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77662)
Dollar Falls to 16-Month Low Versus Euro as U.S. Stocks Decline∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APP_GHhVlRG9sbGFy

New York, June 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar sank to a 16-month low against the euro as slumping U.S. stocks sapped demand for the currency. Investors are dumping U.S. assets and moving their money into Europe and Asia, sparking a four-month slide in the dollar, on concern a recovery in the world's biggest economy won't be strong enough to fuel a rebound in corporate profits in months ahead. ``There's a growing malaise over the U.S. dollar,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. ``The psychology of the market has turned'' to expect further dollar losses because stocks may keep falling, he said.

Black Blade: Load up on "Cheap Gold" while you can. The US Dollar is poised to fall a lot further.

(06/06/2002; 20:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77663)
GOLD CYCLES CHART gold cycles chart is uncanny in its accuracy in timing. Found it today and you guys might be interested.
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 20:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 77664)
A Letter from Argentina

Gold hoarders in Japan must surely be feeling Argentina's economic pain with a growing sense of urgency. We read that Japanese households are snapping up bullion by the ingot these days, apparently fearing that the problems which have plagued the nation's banking system for nearly a decade may be getting worse rather than better.Compared to Argentina, however, Japan is a picture of economic

Black Blade: The "Letter From Argentina" is a "Must Read!" Think it can't happen here? It already did once. It was called the Great Depression then. Read this and then think about why Japanese are snapping up Gold bullion.

(06/06/2002; 20:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77665)
TownCrier/Black Blade
When I click on the link for the afternoon update, I get the update for June 3rd...what am I missing here? TIA,
(06/06/2002; 20:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77666)
Black Blade. . .
With respect to the the letter from the Argentinean citizen in which he/she said:

". . . . the banks -- all of them, including Citibank, Boston, Banca Nazionale del Laboro, Societe General and Germany' second largest bank -- have simply stolen the people's savings. This is an unprecedented situation in modern times, and I am sure that, sooner or later, there will be repercussions elsewhere. But the fact is simply this: You had money in the bank one day; then, the next, when you tried to withdraw it, it wasn't there. All of the banks simply said, 'We don't have it.'"

A similar fate was delivered the people of Missouri when they were recently told that their state income tax refund checks would not be honored. No matter how the government frames it, monies overpaid in taxes to any government are rightfully money being held on deposit at the state by the individual taxpayer. Same difference. Can it happen it here? It has happened here and not in the distant past but no more than a month ago. Anyone who believes that it can't happen here is living in the same dreamland I referenced in my earlier post today.
(06/06/2002; 20:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77667)
Saber Rattling Over Iraq
Where's the Deterrence?There is a considerable smoke screen being pumped out over Iraq.

The party line is that Saddam is a madman about to complete his arsenal of WMDs [Weapons of Mass Destruction] and we therefore must go in and depose him. There are several problems with this line of reasoning:

1. IF Iraq is a true threat to use a smuggled nuke or two why have we not invoked a nuclear deterrence policy? Nuclear deterrence has worked for over 55 years, why give up on it when we seem to need it the most?

Cheny chirps that terrorist's use of nuke on our soil is "...inevitable". He can't really believe that. If he DID he [And his President] would be actually DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT. By listing the Wahabbist militant Islamist centers and promising to retaliate with nuclear weapons on them, we will be sending a clear message. But that message will upset Saudi Arabia since some of the most militant terrorists are there.

To do otherwise is to capitulate. Imagine it. New York wrecked [Crapped up is the industry term] by a ground-level nuke and the President, clueless with no retaliation plan, pulled between losing oil and defending America. One cannot wait until terrorists use nukes on us to begin thinking about all this, however this is exactly what the President is doing. His advisors are caught up with "Inside the Beltway Multi-Culturist" babble.

So... Bush has to choose and choose soon. Does he capitulate to Saudi Arabia and the other terrorists in the event of a nuke strike or does he develop and publish a plan to retaliate against our known terrorist enemies? It is Commerce vs. National Security, Political correctness vs. Destruction of your sworn enemies. Collateral damage? The opponents of National defense play this card. Does not the Koran preach "An Eye for an Eye"?

2. Fingerprinting ME visitors? How will THAT stop infiltrators? How will that inspect the thousands of uninspected cargo containers flowing into the US? Building a big "HomeLand Defense"? How does that identify the 100 admitted Al Qaeda in the US?
Temporarily closing visa applications from ME nations is a completely natural move during post 9/11. Why has it not happened?

3. The threat of martial law is a wonderful tool. It is a way to circumvent the ACLU and the other America hating legal groups. Gauging the response to a trial balloon would be a good first step.

Iraq is not from where the threat emanates. Non-existent border security with impotent deportation laws and hundreds of radical Islamic terrorists and their safe houses are the source of the threat. Moreover, the reluctance to establish a true terrorist nuclear deterrence policy, one that actually destroys terrorist centers is at the core of US apparent policy capitulation.

(06/06/2002; 20:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77668)
Waverider, click your browser's Update (Reload) button
If you see June 3 then your browser must be showing you it's old cached version. Reloading the page with the update button should take care it.

The Hoople
(06/06/2002; 20:57:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77669)
Guided, Sector
Guided: Sorry for delay, had to leave after those posts. When I referred to a 20% gold move I meant from roughly $275 last winter to the recent run to $330 . All during this move the WSJ publishes bearish reasons why it's nearly over. They'll be spinning bearish drivel north of $400 too.

Sector: I e-mailed Cheryl Einhorn at Barron's with similar information with same result, being ignored. I did get a reply from Barron's editor Thomas Donlan however, saying he was considering my reply as a letter to the editor next week. Who knows. I guess you have to assume they are part and parcel to the fiat game. Gold's rise would bode ill for their little world also.
(06/06/2002; 20:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77670)
Ozzie (06/06/02; 19:53:47MT - msg#: 77661)
He is like the Diehard Rabbit, he just keeps on running, and running, and running and; incredibly, remains sane, sharp, incisive.

Don't know how he does it, but sure am glad he can and does. He makes a big difference to us all.
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 21:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77671)
Starting Off Ugly In Asia
The equities markets in Asia are hitting the skids tonight. It looks like a very rough start. The bad news released by Intel after hours and the poor performance on Wall Street today are being carried over into Asian trading. But Gold is shining bright. Gold is picking up some more ground.

- Black Blade

MK - I see that New Jersey, California and Utah are among a growing list of states that are coming up short on tax revenues. I understand that Oregon is revamping their budget and will impliment a 1% increase in income tax. Looks like more pain for the citizen is in store. Cheers!
Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 21:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77672)
Re: The Hoople

I think that Cheryl Einhorn is leaving Barron's or has already. She wrote her last article a week or so ago.

- Black Blade
(06/06/2002; 21:12:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77673)
Randy...thank you. I had to reboot my computer and that fixed it! Thanks again!
(06/06/2002; 21:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77674)
OCC Gold Derivatives Report-Q2 2002
Chase up 10.2%, CitiBank Up 43.4%These big increases in gold derivatives, which GATA has information are probably gold loans, is an indication of systemic stress at the Fed and Treasury.

This week's try at lowering gold has failed and their supply of gold to "Loan" is running very thin. Moreover, CitiBank, who normally maintains discipline quarter to quarter is now all over the place...a sure sign of breakdown.

The derivatives are up because they are trying to cap the market but they are failing. It is this knowledge that helps to drive the long hedge funds and all others who act on truth. The truth is they just don't HAVE the metal to keep loaning and having their acolytes sell their way out of trouble any more.

The enemy is losing...they have been found out. Their exhaustible resource is nearing exhaustion.

The Fed's sheer panic phase has yet to begin but make no mistake, you will know it when you see it. A hint is what Goldman Sachs does on the floor at the final break point.

That break point may just be $335 or $340 bid judging by the Fed's sensitivity.

Sierra Madre
(06/06/2002; 21:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77675)
Sector, may I gently remind you that this is a Forum dedicated to GOLD?

Please do not distract us with your rants invoking monstrous nuclear weapons.

Please avoid M.E. issues here.

Stick to the TOPIC, please!

The Hoople
(06/06/2002; 21:34:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77676)
Black Blade
Einhorn is indeed leaving or being reassigned. I took exception last week to her admiration of Barrick's hedging strategy. I reminded her of Ashanti and that admiration could be premature if gold goes north of $350. Probably a waste of time but they need to hear it.
(06/06/2002; 21:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77677)
Senate Takes Aims at Free Internet.........

Senate Takes Aim at Your Free Internet

Wes Vernon,
Friday, June 7, 2002

WASHINGTON � A Senate committee has approved a bill that could erode and perhaps eliminate your free access to the Internet.
Many establishment politicians view this "people's medium" with emotions ranging from wariness to resentment. This upstart outlet reaches the public without the "gatekeeper" filters in the approved, notoriously left-wing media.

Now leftist politicians have found a way to rein in this newcomer and at the same time reward their big campaign donors among the trial lawyers.

'Great Harm'

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (chairman: Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, D-S.C.) just before the Memorial Day congressional recess approved S. 2201, which a leading industry executive says "will cause great harm to the Internet and electronic commerce." Sponsors would like to slip it quietly through the Senate, preferably while you're not paying attention.

Ed Black, president of Computer and Communications Industry Association, says the measure would subject Internet companies and service providers to sweeping new liability for class-action lawsuits for failing to adhere to the strict requirements of the legislation.

Example: Currently, if you order a book from a Web site and leave your name and address so that the merchandise can be forwarded to you, the site can make note of where you live so that it can gear regional advertising to you. The site must inform you it is doing this, and if you choose not to allow it, you can opt out.

Under S. 2201, such information could not be collected or shared unless you give your express permission, or "opt in."

Because most people don't care that much one way or the other, few will opt out or opt in. The result is that without people expressly opting in, advertising on the Web would take a nosedive. If that happens, many sites would lose a huge source of their revenue. The result: More and more Web sites would have to charge you subscriptions before you could log on.

Golden Bear
(06/06/2002; 21:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77678)
Black Blade (msg#: 77664)
Thanks for the link BB,

Classic case of "Fractional Reserve Banking", where you deposit your reserves, and what's left is a fraction of what you deposited, getting smaller and smaller by the day!


PS. Congrats on now being officially part of the USAGold crew and an excellent roundup of the financial news, written as they should be.
(06/06/2002; 21:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77679)
After the news on Intel after the close, many fund managers/investment managers just may get to put their money where their mouth is.

The S & P futures are still dicounting over a 100 point drop in the dow for tomorrow at the open. All week long I have been hearing that everyone is wating for the "washout" in stocks before they commit money to the new "bull" market that all the "facts and figures" that our beloved government has been massaging over the last 6 months. Catch a falling knife? Lets see if they are willing to catch a falling sword.

I am under the impression that the administration "must" make something happen (war??) before we have the crash that we all expect. With the markets as weak as I think they are right now, the PPT will have it's work cut out for it tomorrow. They cannont afford to go into the weekend down 3 to 4 hundred points.

Asia down, gold firming very well. Tomorrow could be VERY, VERY INTERESTING.

Could be wrong, but gold pushing 340 tomorrow will not surprise me in the least.

Let the games begin.

(06/06/2002; 21:51:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77680)
German Marks Resurfacing upset by mark revival
By Toby Helm
(Filed: 06/06/2002)

The German mark - consigned to history five months ago - is making a startling comeback thanks to the unpopularity of the euro.

In a move that has dismayed the Bundesbank, which is collecting old notes and coins, the mark is being accepted again at a growing number of shops on Germany's northern coast.

Karl-Heinz Haken, manager of a chain of general stores in Leer, said many customers had cut spending in the belief that traders had put up prices during the change to the euro. With his sales down, he decided to try to recoup business by pricing goods in marks as well as euros - and even to offer to accept payment in marks.

"Because of all the discussion about the inflation caused by the euro, we wanted to make this offer to our customers," he said. "It was a huge success. Our turnover rose by 40 per cent."

He and other traders who followed suit are amazed at how may marks people still hold. Some economists think that 15 per cent of mark coins are still in circulation.

A shrimp seller in the port of Greetsiel told Die Welt: "It is so simple. They are spending the old money they find in their summer clothes that have been stuffed away for a year."

A spokesman for the central bank said it was legal for shops to take marks if they wanted to, though it would be against the law to give change in the old currency.

The bank did not like the situation, she said. "We want the euro in people's minds - not the mark."

The bank did not want the ideas to spread in Germany. "The next thing is they'll be saying they need more marks because everyone wants to use them again," she added.

A European Commission survey last week found that 68.5 per cent of people in the 12 euro nations thought the transition to the single currency had pushed up prices.

2 January 2002: 30bn marks held abroad may harm new

1 January 2002: Europe's leap into unknown

(06/06/2002; 22:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77681)
Black Blade
Your note regarding exploration caught my attention. Of course at the conference there was an exhibit hall with a fair number of junior exploration companies on show. It seems that the POG has risen enough that they are just getting back into business. Interestingly, some of these companies seem to be financed by the heavily hedged mining companies. My accountant mentioned their revived activity to me also last week, as many are based in Vancouver and use the same firm I do...just an observation. BTW...excellent afternoon update, thank you. Cheers,
(06/06/2002; 22:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77682)
Front month gold to $351 +/- $5 and then retrace?
I was doing some charting homework today looking for the next area where POG might turn down again. I trade gold and silver futures mostly and have noticed a pattern generaly in commodities that seems to hold about 80% of the time for temporary turning points. That point is $351 +/- $5. I give it enough room ie... +/- $5 because as POG approaches the target ($351) , price momentum seems to increase. Sometimes blowing thru the target with a short burst of momentum and then quickly turning down and sometimes encountering selling pressure prior to the target Its strange but its a pattern that repeats itself time and again. Its a simple overhead trend line drawn from the high in Dec. '87 @ 498 thru the high in Feb. '96 @ 416. It goes right overhead today at $351. And seems to be most reliable on the third point on the trend line. All bets are off with the above temporary tuning point however if something major happens like war in the ME or more substantial terrorist bombings in the US etc. No promises though, just food for thought.
The Hoople
(06/06/2002; 22:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77683)
I have watched the explosion of Fannie and Freddie derivatives also. If you overlay a Fannie/Freddie chart to JPM the explosions practically lock step together. Since Fannie and Freddie are exempt from most conventional reporting requirements could this be another smoking gun? I assume interst rate increases would be disastrous to Fannie/Freddie portfolios and gold supression would fit in neatly with preventing this. The question has been who could be counter-party to trillions of mortgage risk? I've never seen it connected but feel it would be the perfect venue to conceal information. Remembering too AG's opposition to further transparency in derivatives back in 1999 was when it really took off. I was wanting to run this by GATA when Bill returns from Vancouver.
(06/06/2002; 22:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77684)
Kramrich...price chart analysis
Kramrich, thanks for the chart link. I used to dabble in futures trading every now and again and have discovered a few patterns that are VERY reliable. Of the most consistent that I have profited from are what are called the gap and the pennant.

I have been looking at the long term chart for gold since '95 when I first started trading and it was not until I visited the link you posted that I noticed that the entire spike up to ~$850 forms the spine of one huge pennant!!! Also, the symetry evidenced in the link you gave is most impressive with lows and highs mapping out very nicely approx. every 8 years.

Long Term view gathered from chart: If the highs continue to map out at 8-9 year intervals then we should be in the beginning of a run to new highs occuring sometime in late 2003 or early 2004 reaching to at least the all time high of $850/oz. We may see a pull back to near or below $300 with a more pronounced point in the pennant occurring short-term. However, this would still synchronize with the cycling 8 yr highs coming soon!

Short Term: Looking at the August '02 Comex contract, yesterday and today have created a nice gap down. This gap will eventually have to be filled. So expect prices to trend higher with significant resistance continuing at the $330 level.

Your thoughts?

Note: Past performance is not indicative of future least as far as we trade at your own risk with risk capital only (it makes uncle Al have to work harder at evicting you). If gold goes to a new eight year high as predicted, I wonder if we can then do away with such sayings as it would seem that past performance to some degree IS indicative of future results? The power of cycles! Deny them at your own discretion and remember
the lessons of history....and physics!

YGM: Thanks for the link a few days ago to Robert Service's The Spell of the Yukon! Wow, if that poem does not say it all! Actually though, I would feel remiss if I did not inform you that I am a born and bred yankee (though you perhaps wouldn't know it reading the mix of nationalities that make me who I am (with none of them being Canadian)). I derived my handle from a funny little miner that just popped in my head the day I signed up for posting privileges. Can you guess who? HINT: If you have kids, ask them! Anyway, the poem moved me and I wanted to say thank you. Once again, you prove that we are of the same grain (165?)! Have you ever heard of G.K. Chesterton?

Thanks to all for the dedication to this site.

Viva Liberty!

(06/06/2002; 22:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77685)
The Hoople
Keep your ear peeled for further word from Enhorn as she may be the perfect contrarian indicator for gold and who knows what else. During the Spring and Summer of 2001 she was down on the long term prospects for POG. Then, Lo! and behold, on the very week when gold bottomed she ripped gold up one side and down the other. It was NEVER coming back. ( My interpretation of the point of the article.) Since that November Barrons article, I don't recall any other columns by her in the Commodities Corner until just a week ago when she wrote of her reassignment to do feature articles.

(06/06/2002; 23:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77686)
sector's 'rants'?
sector has earned the right, IMHO, to 'rant'...especially when it concerns global political stability.

I do not know if the format has changed here, but posting on events which directly affect gold via war or terorism is not, IMHO, off topic.

On top of that....sector is an active member of GATA who has traveled to Washington in the company of Murphy for our collective benefit....confronted those opposed to gold face to face....and works with Reg Howe, the fruit of which includes published reports on their work.

I apologize for my bursting in on this but could not let it go. If the format has changed, I stand corrected.


sector, I hope you are doing well my friend. I am busy converting those at other non gold forums as there is not much sense in repeating to ourselves here the same message over and over. I am sending those who listen this way and to other gold info sites. There is a movement and it is growing.

Folks out in other cyberspace financial forums are coming over to gold. I am being heard with much enthusiasm from those recently stung in the stock market. These are the people who will send gold to 1000 an ounce, not we here.

Cheers all
(06/06/2002; 23:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77687)
Uponroof, so great to hear from you
I was just thinking the other day that we hadn't heard from you for a long time...not even during the price guessing contests. Good to see that you're well and involved in very important work converting the non-converted! Miss your views on Japan...actually all your views...and your humor! There *has* been an influx of new posters recently, it's very good to see. Keep up the great work and please stop by to visit once in awhile. Cheers and blessings to you,
(06/07/2002; 00:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77688)
Intel Reduces 2nd-Qtr Sales Forecast∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APQBAhhV9SW50ZWwgSnippit:
"Intel Corp., the world's biggest semiconductor maker, lowered its second- quarter sales forecast on reduced personal-computer chip demand in Europe. The shares fell as much as 13 percent.

``It was worse than people expected,'' said Marian Kessler, who helps manage $25 million at Rutherford Investment Management, which owns Intel shares. ``We're seeing a longer downturn than expected and a slower recovery.''

``It's not going to be very pretty in the morning, not in the tech world,'' said Jim Luke, whose BB&T Asset Management owns Intel shares and manages $10 billion. ``The recovery is going to be slow and labored.''

Waverider: I think Pizz is's going to be a wild day tomorrow. As I heard over and over at the conference - the reality of the economic situation just hasn't hit investors yet - they're still waiting and hoping for the tech sector to turn around so they can recoup their losses. It doesn't look like they'll see reality until they're confronted with it face to face - could be panic/pandemonium tomorrow...may be wrong...we'll see!
(06/07/2002; 01:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77689)
I agree. I see the huge pennant and $850 is an easily identified target for the bulls and the bears. That is for the bulls to shoot for and the bears to get out of our way until we get there.
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 01:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77690)
"Interesting" Market Activity Overnight
Wow! Europe is cratering right along with Asia. Equities markets are plunging on Intel's revelations that not all is well in the tech world and capital expenditures never materialized. After hours trading in the US also plunged hard. It looks as if tomorrow could be "interesting" at best. It depends on how this major sell-off carries over into the NY open. Perhaps some special "intervention" will be needed. I suspect that members of The "President's Working Group on Financial Markets" may be getting frantic phone calls early this morning. Richard Quest on CNNfn has been mentioning this unusual down market activity every few minutes. This is definitely something to keep our eyes on as more investors will probably look for "safe havens" come tomorrow.

- Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 02:29:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77691)
Silver Lease Rates ...

Silver lease rates are up sharply again today.
(06/07/2002; 02:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77692)
Brown launches new attack on bank secrecy
"Britain's finance minister, Gordon Brown, has warned that countries which do not lift banking secrecy in tax matters are facing isolation.

"Those who are not prepared to introduce [the exchange of information] will find themselves being increasingly isolated against the growing consensus of the international community," he warned.

The Swiss finance minister, Kaspar Villiger, has stated repeatedly that banking secrecy is not negotiable and has supported the idea of a withholding tax on interest accrued in accounts held in Swiss banks by EU citizens."

Waverider: Interesting debate and pressures that Switzerland is faced with. I don't see them succumbing to pressure - bank secrecy laws are an inherent and long-standing part of their culture. Besides, the threat of isolation is a joke considering the Swiss thrive on minding their own business. However, *if* the laws were lifted, would Gold have less competition from the CHF as a safe haven alternative to the ailing US dollar? Thoughts...from any of our Swiss/European posters?
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 03:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77693)
Breaking News - American Hostage Killed

Filipino troops attempted a rescue of American hostages held by Abu Sayaf terrorists. It did not go well. One dead and another wounded. A few months earlier the terrorists beheaded ago one American. No other news yet.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 03:39:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77694)
Market Index Futures Diving Hard
Markets are cratering around the world tonight and the US market index futures are trashed (see link). Not often we see futures this ugly. Unless there is a miracle (or government and institutional intervention) it will be a slaughter at the open on Wall Street. It should be an "Interesting" day.

- Black Blade

Oh teah, the unemployment report for May is reported to be ugly too (to be released this morning).
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 03:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 77695)
DJ Futures Pegged at Minus -100

Dow Futures have been pegged at -100 for quite a while now.Rarely if ever see a triple digit lock down on the DJ index futures. Gonna get ugly today.

- Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 04:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77696)
@ BB
Looks grizzly for the markets today. There was an article recently where the author speculated that if the Sept. 2001 lows were broken all hell would break loose. I believe the Nasdaq is getting close and I see the S&P might crack 1000.

Do you (or anyone else) recall last fall's lows?

(06/07/2002; 04:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77697)
@ Waverider
Have you caught NT in the last few days? It is getting slaughtered, what's going on? I believe the close yesterday was $2.22 (CDN).

An old telco buddy had about 10,000 shares of NT which were locked up in a divorce settlement. He had pleaded with her to dump them after the fall off from 120 to 100. I wonder how their relationship is doing now.
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 05:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77698)
Slaughter On Wall Street!!!
If there is no intervention, we will see a slaughter on Wall Street. Pedestrians may need to keep an eye skyward as they walk down past "brokers row". A quick side step may be needed to avoid the swan diving investment managers. The USD could come under a bit of pressure today, however, the markets around the globe are getting taken to the woodshed today. Asia and Europe got slaughtered and NY opens soon.

- Black Blade
Cavan Man
(06/07/2002; 06:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77699)
sector 77667
Hey sector: KEEP IT COMING! What I like most about this particular post is that YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT (unfortunately).

OFF TOPIC: I completely changed my stance and swing yesterday and though I felt very incomfortable on the back nine, at one point I crushed a three wood from the fairway about 245. Awesome! Back to the range (and topic).....CM
Cavan Man
(06/07/2002; 06:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77700)
That's "uncomfortable". Sorry.
(06/07/2002; 06:23:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77701)
September Lows (intraday)

Dow - 8062
S&P 944
Nasdaq 1387

(06/07/2002; 07:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77702)
BB's Bonepile
Since we have a wide following accross the US, is there anyone living in any area of the country that has rising employment?

I'm just trying to figure out where all the layed off people over the last year are going to work.

The Pacific NW sure isn't the place, we're in our worst recession since 80 - 81 with no let up in sight.

The unemployment numbers don't make sense - and I think the public is starting to smell fish.

(06/07/2002; 07:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 77703)
Sector (aka - the ghost in the machine)
If you quit writing here, I quit reading here. No one reads "between the lines" better than you.
(06/07/2002; 07:26:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77704)
Red Ink On Wallstreet
It's looks to be a bad day for stocks.
I will add that wall street gurus may beat the
unemployment numbers to try to get a pop out of the dow.
Gosh will they try anything to try to save the sinking
ship. Don't be surprised if they can squeak out a gain
at the closing bell. Never underestimate the fed's
The Hoople
(06/07/2002; 07:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77705)
Puts and more puts
When you watch yet another tech meltdown today remember how many of those eompanies sold puts on their stock to generate "free" revenue . Derivative nightmares are lurking everywhere, not just at the cabal houses. Cascading defaults as Gary North used to be fond of saying. Another unspoken problem of this downturn is stock options going worthless, further reducing purchasing power of already tapped out consumers. Will employees refuse options and demand cash in the future? Bet on it. The fraud of the 90's miracle is getting revealed day by gut churning day.
(06/07/2002; 07:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77706)
uponroof (06/06/02; 23:17:53MT - msg#: 77686)Hey man...I also agree with upon roof totaly...You are one of the best here (even tho there are many)...You have earned a right to rant as we all do from time to time...
Please stay!......YGM.

(06/07/2002; 07:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77707)
Well, if she's gonna tank, she's got a good early start! Gold minig stocks didn't drop as much as I expected they would in our recent POG dip, this is a very positive thing for future POG support. People seem to be less frantic around the precious yellow.

(06/07/2002; 08:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77708)
Yukon.....ALL.....Friend Sierra....
Have you ever heard of G.K. Chesterton?Morning.....No, but I'll run it thru Google.....

BTW.....ALL!!!.....Some of the best links to info one can find on web are found by various 'phrases' put in search engine.....Easiest way to come up with papers/editorials noone has yet seen here.....

Sierra...c'mon lighten up can't you? ME stuff does have a definate impact on POG and I'm sure that's why we all post that kind of info...we took along time to build the great group of posters here and we can't afford to offend...OK?
Peace Amigo!...ygm
(06/07/2002; 08:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77709)
While I'm at it........Trying to catch up before work!...How about giving us more of your thoughts (more often) if you have time...YGM has read every post of yours for years and I do like to hear from you....YGM
(06/07/2002; 08:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77710)
Is it possible the FED would sell gold to support wall street?
(06/07/2002; 09:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77711)
The Gold Wars - by Ferdinand Lips
A brief review:

Gold Wars deals with gold's history, the gold rushes and the abandonment of gold-as-money under the modern welfare/warfare state. It shows how governments, fearing the affinity of free people for gold, fight it, thereby helping to destroy whole countries along with the gold mining industry. The book highlights the betrayal of gold-rich Switzerland. The author condemns gold "hedging," gold market manipulation by governments and bullion banks, fiat money and debt. He concludes that only a gold standard can return an ailing world economy to its full potential, reduce unemployment, help restore law and order, and help to secure peace and freedom for mankind. ...

Not much to add to that - except to say thank you to BB and his alias Jon W. for his outstanding work and dedication to education ... Thank you, Sir for all you do - cb2

Cavan Man
(06/07/2002; 09:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77712)
@ CB(too)
Waiting on the book from a Azon. Look forward to reading it!
(06/07/2002; 09:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77713)
PIZZ ancedotal employment survey!
Pizz the employment in Wasington, DC and Philadelphia's rich northern corporate suburbs appears to be continuing to hold up. I guess that there are large descrepancies in the effects that the bone pile has on the different parts of the US. These are the geographic areas of strength I have noticed in the Mid Atlantic region that I frequent. It is related to safe government and drug company jobs I think and a continuing boom in real estate sales, construction, and the related furnishings.
(06/07/2002; 10:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77714)
Markets bouncing back some
I see where gold just went under water with the
dollar coming back a little and gold stocks falling off
Hmm.. Such bad news with intc, and tyco and so on. But
lets face it. It's a friday and the FED's want to see
green in the stock market before the weekend. So I
think it is one of those days where their painting the tape before the weekend. I still think that the dow will
end close to being up at the end of the day. I was hoping
that gold would end bullish for the week. Gosh how about
the selling pressure at the 330 mark. It's like how much
gold to the Swiss have to sell any ways! Well have fun...
(06/07/2002; 10:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77715)
nickel62: employment
I wonder how much of the employment in this region is directly or indirectly related to government spending and/or spending related to compliance to government edict? One of the few strong growth areas in the economy at present, IMHO.
(06/07/2002; 10:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77716)
from Yahoo
GLOBAL MARKETS-War fears, Intel slam markets; bonds, gold up (Reuters)
Friday June 7, 04:21 PM
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks led a big slide in equities worldwide and the dollar fell early on, sending investors rushing to the safety of bonds and gold, after Intel Corp.'s lowered revenue outlook slammed a market already hurt by corporate scandals and war fears.

The only reason for posting this is that I simply cannot believe they have actually used the G-word. Good Heavens, the sky is falling!!
(06/07/2002; 10:44:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77717)
So why the gold sell-off?
JCTex, if investors are "rushing to the safety of bonds and gold," as the Reuters story states, then why are all the gold stocks experiencing a big sell-off today? Can anyone explain?
(06/07/2002; 11:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77718)
Jimbo (6/7/02; 10:44:15MT - msg#: 77717)
I think you call that "paper pricing." As long as paper prices physical, we are going to have this make-believe price of gold.

My opinion is that FOA was right. Paper price and physical price will eventually part company. IMHO, when that happens, we will see the price of real gold go ballistic, the dollar will go in the toilet, and all-hell will break loose.
Sierra Madre
(06/07/2002; 11:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77719)
YGM...just how am I supposed to lighten up?

I was banished (temporarily) from this Forum for expressing opinions related to US policy vis-a-vis the Middle East and specifically, Israel. I was asked to stick to the TOPIC.
Fine, I agreed completely. But, let others do the same.

Indeed, war has a profound effect on the price of gold.

If we talk of war, then let us talk of it objectively, as if we were already dead and gone, let us say. Let us talk about it without judging who is right and who is wrong. You can observe this kind of consideration of a war, in the present case of India vs. Pakistan. It is of very little concern to us, who is right and who is wrong. We don't even think about that.

Now, if we think of the situation in the Middle East, all objectivity is cast to the winds. "Al Qaeda" is considered as just "fanatics". The terms used to refer to this group, are without exception derogatory. The fact is, a great many people, and some excellent posters at this site, become totally emotional once the Middle East is concerned.

For my part, I am not really interested in the fate of Israel or of the Palestinians. Unfortunately, most Americans do not seem to be able to reason objectively when it comes to the Middle East.

Nor are very many able to understand that "terrorism" is just another name for warfare. That "terrorists" are fighting their war the only way they can. That if you want to put an end to that war, you better talk to the enemy and find out what's bothering him, what he wants.

But no, this enemy is to be "nuked" out of existence! We are not to discuss the motives of the "terrorists", because we might find out unpleasant things about ourselves (the U.S.)
I strenously object to posts that advocate nuclear war against "terrorists" or "terrorism".

Since emotion cannot be avoided in talking about the MIddle East, that is why I say: stick to the TOPIC.

If I displease, I am quite willing to remain silent.


(06/07/2002; 11:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77720)
9/11 Long-Term Effects Like "Sand in the [Economic] Wheels"...OECD
THE INCREASE in insurance-risk premiums, reduction in insurance coverage, higher transportation costs, disruptions to international trade and the diversion of capital to defense and security spending away from more-profitable investments could amount to a heavier and more prolonged burden on global growth than realized, according to the report, which was released Thursday.

These effects are "more diffuse, so they tend not to feature so prominently in people's perceptions," said Vincent Koen, an OECD economist and one of the report's authors. "But they could be felt like sand in the wheels" of the economy.
Geopolitical conflicts effect monetary stability. Gold's value is thus, related to those conflicts.

Today's HUI pullback is actually very healthy in so far as it offers a fresh entry point for strong hands who have been waiting with patience for about a month for just such an opportunity. Meethinks HUI will move up at the close.
POG has held up well under all the outright official sales [Through "Loans" to counter parties] of even more Treasury bullion.
(06/07/2002; 11:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77721)
HUI may move in an upwards direction at the close if not to the green status.eom
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/07/2002; 11:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77722)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements

(06/07/2002; 12:18:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77723)
HEADLINE: War fears, Intel slam markets; bonds, gold up to JCTex who posted the opening line to this Reuters article a short while ago. Here is an additional glimpse of the text and the link to the full article (above).



...losses pushed key U.S. market gauges such as the tech- laden Nasdaq Composite and the broad Standard & Poor's 500 to lows unseen since the weeks immediately following the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.

"We're starting to get a little bit of hysteria in the market, but it's not a complete panic yet," said a trader of S&P 500 futures on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, who asked not to be named. Still, he said, "we still have room to go on the downside."

...In currency markets, the dollar weakened against euro early on, but later recovered. Safe-haven interest in gold was reignited late this week by the military standoff between India and Pakistan over disputed Kashmir and Israel's storming of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's headquarters Thursday.

-------(see URL above)-------

"Hysteria". Doesn't it seem that it is precisely at times like these that the government would step in to lend a little support to the stock markets so that people will enter the weekends less heavy-hearted and more inclined to go shopping? Be sceptical of the merits of any sudden recoveries in stocks.

(06/07/2002; 12:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77724)
Jimbo re... "why the gold selloff?"
Silver was unable to fill a gap in the July contract starting at 506.50. If there was enough demand for the PM market this morning, Silver should have easily blown thru this point. When it did not, it showed weakness and it was sold. At least thats why I sold some of my positions and bought them back at lower prices.
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 12:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77725)
Wall Street banks' gold derivatives in danger zone edge may spark mad scramble


"I see $340 and $360 an ounce as the danger zone for banks, that is where hedging and the hedge book problems start to have an impact," said Ian McAvity, editor of Toronto newsletter Deliberations on World Markets and a director of gold and silver closed-end fund Central Fund of Canada (CEF: news, chart, profile). "I expect to see a $25 up day for gold one day, largely due to someone getting skewered by their hedge book, either the bank that extended it or the mining company." A rapidly rising gold price is the worst enemy of hedged miners and the banks that designed their derivative strategies. A powerful gold rally could force some miners, or the banks behind the hedge books, to engage in a mad scramble to locate gold and deliver it to the original lenders.

Black Blade: We may yet see the higher POG hit the major players in the hedging game. There is a lot of resistance to a POG above $330 an ounce.

(06/07/2002; 13:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 77726)
ooooo...Jimmy Buffet to speak...
...or was it Warren Buffet? It was Warren...on CNBC during closing bell. Wonder what he'll say about silver!
(06/07/2002; 13:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77727)
The "other snippit"
Black Blade, I think the more interesting snippit from Thom Callandra's article was this quote:

"A rapidly rising gold price is the worst enemy of hedged miners and the banks that designed their derivative strategies. A powerful gold rally could force some miners, or the banks behind the hedge books, to engage in a mad scramble to locate gold and deliver it to the original lenders.

"McAvity points to the largest investment banks, among them JP Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), as facing the most risk from the continuing gold rally. Gold's spot price is up about 20 percent since Jan. 2. Figures from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency show JP Morgan Chase having the largest exposure to gold derivatives among U.S. banks and trusts, as of Dec. 31."

Pardon my naivete, but do the hedged miners and banks have such control over gold's price and the buying/selling of gold that they can keep a lid on things indefinitely? Or at some point are they going to lose control of this process?

(06/07/2002; 13:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77728)
Dow Recovers after drastic start
Did I hear someone say Plunge Protection Team (PPT)? After negative triple digits in opening futures it almost looked like the day of reckoning was about to happen, becausw we know its coming.

Thanks Goldquet for thst excellent info on msg # 77610, that was some good stuff Sir.

Loud mouth Cramer last night at the end of his new show on CNBC with Kadlow said, "I don't like gold." I told my wife I can't stand those two Wall Street trolls, she says then why do I watch them? I replied, because you have to know how your enemy thinks.

Keep those comments coming in everyone, reading them really is one of the highlights of my day.

Boy that bone pile is really piling up isn't it? Its smelling up the market pretty bad. All we need now is some other major event to destablize the remaining value and finanical infa-structure that is already under major damage control.

The Gangsters on Wall Street can only deceive and cheat and minipulate the system so long until the system no matter how big it is can no longer give back returns. This market has been minipulated from so many sectors by so many greedy individuals that this giant has taken a knee because all the pressure is just too much. And with a realistate bubble ready to pop and a weak and failing dollar, our huge trade deficits and national debt this economy is ready to go bust.

Looks to me that the well is about to run dry and its pay up time. Those with the vision will not suffer any or much loss and those with a vision such as it was in the times of the Bible, it was those who were the prudent ones who acted and prepared and were spared defeat and loss. (Noah's Ark for example).

Theres only a certain window of opportunity to get in on something big that could one day even save your worth and help you survive in a situation that without gold you wouldn't have been able to do it.

As BB has often says, get a few extra months of cash on hand, begin a food storage program and protect your assets and portfolo with gold and silver insurance.

Most people look at gold as an investment others look at it as insurance. I look at mine as insurance but when it breaks $20,000 an ounce I'll reclassify its status.
Have a great weekend,
(06/07/2002; 13:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77729)
Dollar close on NY Forex
The US dollar index closed up, on an options expiration Friday, just above $111. Compared to past such closes, the move was feeble, though determined. Support for the dollar, from the US ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) and the unofficial PPT (President's Working Group on Farcical Markets- "Plunge Protection Team"), requires stock and currency market intervention, assisted by gold, silver, and commodity price management. Though the US $ edged up slightly, managing the buck appears less and less effective.
Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 14:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77730)
Argentine poor eat rats, toads: mayor,2276,47581,00.html?

(BUENOS AIRES) Argentina's worst economic crisis ever has hit the nation's poor so hard that some have resorted to eating toads, rats and horse meat, the mayor of a poor Buenos Aires suburb said yesterday. Many slum dwellers in the suburb of Quilmes survive only because they eat such animals, according to mayor Fernando Gerones, who said some malnourished children in the poor neighbourhood only live on food they are given at school. 'In many cases, school food is the only meal these children get,' Mr Gerones said in a statement highlighting poverty in the suburb.

Black Blade: As always, get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Don't be an Argentine.

Black Blade
(06/07/2002; 14:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77731)
Brazil central bank under fire amid rocky markets§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-n06325113&date=20020606&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

As Brazil's currency, the real, weakened to its lowest point in seven months, stocks fell and bond prices plunged, the bank said it would auction off short-term treasury notes in hopes of easing some of the pressure on markets. Economists and pundits faulted a Central Bank usually known for savvy financial operators for stirring an already turbulent market by enacting a rule that forces investment funds to mark the value of their assets according to daily market prices.

Because most of Brazil's local debt is tied to currency fluctuations or re-prices daily with floating interest rates, when markets get nervous its debt becomes more expensive and harder to roll over. This week, the government tried to force banks to buy its treasury notes by offering banks poor returns on inter-bank loans, leaving extra liquidity in the market. But banks refused to buy the notes and opted to buy dollars instead, further fueling instability and making the rollover more expensive.

Constantin Jancso, an economist at MCM Consultants, said in a report the bank's recent policy of buying up longer-term treasury notes in exchange for short-term notes was aimed at easing turbulence. But at the same time it was worsening the country's debt profile considerably and undercutting its past policy of extending the length of its maturities.

Black Blade: The rumor is that Brazil may default on debt. Brazil could be the next Argentina. Tough call, venezuela and Colombia are not in very good shape either.

(06/07/2002; 14:50:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77732)
Still buying dollars abroad.
In Black Blades snippit below you can see these countries are still buying dollars. Lesser of two evils. Amazing how they think they are safe but they are going from the frying pan into the fire. Or I guess I should say from the fire into the frying pan because they are a little safer in dollars than their own currency or bonds. But they should be going into gold! Someday they will wake up.
Sierra Madre
(06/07/2002; 15:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77733)
Some consternation because gold stocks are hammered

I don't follow gold stocks, but I picked up today at a neighboring forum, some expressions of surprise and worry that gold stocks are going down.

Could it be that "the Cabal" does not only consider gold as its enemy, but also gold stocks, which make the rest of the Stock Market look so bad?

The gold stock market is rather puny in size, is it not?

Might it not be also subject to attack, to depress prices and make it look risky?

I prefer the physical metal, myself. May go down but can't be killed. And will eventually rise in any case.

(06/07/2002; 15:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77734)
Have you ever wanted to buy your own mine?, here is your chance. A gold mine is up for sale in Montana for 1.25 million dollars.
Click on the website to see more details
(06/07/2002; 15:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77735)
Peggy Noonan [Wall Street Journal Columnist] Rants About Security
She cites such "absurdities" as our reluctance to employ ethnic profiling - our idiot refusal to give added scrutiny to "Arab and Muslim males 18 to 40 years old as they attempt to enter America, board planes, rent charter planes and ask for maps to the nearest nuclear power plant."

"How absurd and clueless do you have to be to be having this debate?" she asks. "You have to have surrendered all common sense."
Americans have to face some very unpleasant facts, Noonan warns.

* Something worse than 9-11 is bound to happen.
* New York and Washington are certain targets. "[We're a top target, and the madmen who mean to harm us won't be happy until the skyscrapers are cinders."
* Think the unthinkable. "There is nothing the madmen would rather do than take out or disable two of the biggest, most central entities that unite us in America, the seat of our financial institutions and power and the seat of our government."
* Expect the worst. Imagine: On the same day, New York and Washington are, say, dirty-nuked. This will cause chaos, pain and horror of almost unimaginable proportions. And yet we must imagine.
It seems that others are thinking [And writing] the unthinkable too...

It is actually possible to obtain personal monetary stability ans security ...just convert some paper into heavy metal.
(06/07/2002; 15:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77736)
(No Subject)
Here we look and watch and look and watch at the many economic and financial negatives around the globe (Argentina, Japan, ME, et al) and domestically (current account deficit, credit, debt, equities and real estate) bubbles ready to blow at any time. Has anyone written a computer program theoretically predicting when these forces will merge and become a critical mass? I realize there are so many variables that it may be impossible but, hey they have programs for almost every other type of event you can imagine.

Does anyone recall Rush Limbaugh EVER addressing the ISsues of gold, fiat money and the anticipated train wreck with the various bubbles mentioned above? At least one of his sponsors promotes gold ownership but I have never heard him speak of it at any time. Almost like gold is a taboo word on the radio.

Comments anyone?
(06/07/2002; 15:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77737)
Including option costs reduces earnings∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APQDVKhYkV2hlbiBP``The American shareholder has paid a big price'' for corporate option programs, said John C. Bogle, founder of mutual fund company Vanguard Group and president of Bogle Financial Markets Research Center. ``The idea that stock options shouldn't be expensed is so absurd it takes your breath away.''


The S&P 500 sells for 23 times 2001 earnings, according to Thomson First Call profit data used by Reinhard. The valuation increases to 26 when options costs are included, he said
Options costs alone could lower core earnings by 10 percent, according to Standard & Poor's.

The hit to earnings could worsen an already dwindling profit outlook. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call have trimmed their 2002 S&P 500 earnings-growth forecast to 14.7 percent from 16.5 percent as of April 1, as the economy's rebound slows.


Misetich comments:
Lower returns for investors abroad doesn't bode well for the US $

Got gold?
(06/07/2002; 15:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77738)
I'm a central banker,
I am responsible for the reserves of my country and I can't decide what to do;
Should I buy more and more dollars to keep up the value of the ones I have, or should I sell them all and take the beating?
I already look like an idiot owing to the fact that I just recently sold a bunch of gold reserves that appreciated in value after I sold.
Can I trust those Americans to hold the line on inflation?
Am I going to be sitting here on a big pile of worthless paper?
(06/07/2002; 15:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 77739)
When the storm is over
and we look into who got what, don't be surprised to see that Americans don't own America anymore. It was all sold off at pennies on the dollar just before the great hyperinflation. All those bundled securities that were packaged so neatly from mortgages and refis by the GSEs and sold to save the American dream are now in the hands of people all over the world. Through these complex derivatives, sold and resold, your home could be ownewd right now by some Saudi prince.
(06/07/2002; 15:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77740)
Sierra - On gold stocks
I follow stocks, gold stocks, gold, etc. and have for years.

I see nothing more than a normal profit taking correction in the gold stocks, and really, I'm surprised gold is holding up as well as it is (even though I thought we might get a bit of a panic spike today).

The gold stocks normally lead the metal, and most of the stocks have retreated to the lower end of their current uptrend. Gold may follow, as long as the news doesn't get worse, and a move down to 305 - 310 would be technically healthy.

Nothing is straight up without corrections, and I feel that there are a lot of weak gold stock holders that have bought in the last 3 months or so that are trying to recoup losses from tech, dot com, etc. Most of these people bought as of late, and have been burned so badly that they start to panic on pullbacks. They'll never make much money trading paper (other than luck) simply because they can't control their emotions.

Same will happen when gold and silver start to run, most will sell out way too early on pullbacks, buy back in close to the top of the next move, etc and get the living heck whipsawed out of them in fast markets. It's a natural tendency that the pro's and big money take full advantage.

If any of these people had any sense, they'd follow Aristotle's advice and just buy the physical, shut off the news, sip a glass of good wine, and relax.

(06/07/2002; 15:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77741)
Hipplebeck, I'm a central banker, too.
Sometimes... sometimes... you just gotta hang on for the ride!

Can you see how it is?

Do you think for a minute that the Old Lady (BoE) didn't already know where the price of Gold was heading -- perhaps much higher and fast enough to scare you out of your jammies?

Maybe... just maybe... depending on where you sit and how you see things, 400 tonnes is a small price to pay for a form of superglue to hold the financial system together. I'll bet more "glue" will be called for before the overstressed quaking subsides into a state of dynamic equilibrium.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/07/2002; 15:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77742)
Pizz, I'm doin it!
Sipping wine with my feet up!

Gold. Got me some. --- Aristotle
(06/07/2002; 16:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77743)
Terrorism tax and costs this evidence is hardly the definitive verdict on the so-called terrorism tax, it is in broad conformity with the initial conclusions I outlined last fall. Yet it is by no means an exhaustive assessment of the new frictions evident in the world economy post-September 11. Heightened geopolitical instability has also been an obvious and important by-product of the escalation of terrorism. That's true in the Middle East and, more recently, with respect to the ominous tensions between India and Pakistan. Those hotspots, in conjunction with continued warnings of another attack in the United States -- underscored in President Bush's June 6 address to the nation on matters of homeland security -- create an aura of heightened global uncertainty and fear. Against that backdrop, multi-national corporations could start to tilt inward -- less willing to commit to far-flung global supply chains and more intent on establishing secure contingency backups at home. All this is another way of saying that the risk premium on offshore outsourcing has just gone up.

Misetich's comments:

Insurance costs, shipping costs, cross-border costs are headed higher- hitting corporate earnings, thus lower stock values -

Foreign investors is there a better alternative than the US ?

Got gold?

(06/07/2002; 16:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77744)
Thanks .....for setting the record staight...I had no idea you had been down that road...Now I remember your comment to me re: Lonely in the Hinterland and understand...I'll be minding more of my own biz from now on...Hate to see anyone among the posters now here leave tho, that's all...Hopefully more will join the ranks and share thoughts & info finds..

(06/07/2002; 16:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77745)
As for England,I think the BOE sabotaged their own financial house in order to get parity with the rest of Europe,
but over all, I do believe that the banksters are making the ultimate gamble and counting on convincing the human race that gold really is a barbarous relic. If they succeed, we are all enslaved for life. If they fail we have many years in the dark putting back the pieces of civilization.
Gold can't be a part of the great new world order unless it is completely under the control of the boys in charge. They don't want free markets any more than the feudal lords did.
(06/07/2002; 16:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77746)
Hipplebeck, my own outlook isn't as bleak as yours appears to be
Can you help breathe some warm moist air into my pathetic little fledgling stormclouds by explaining your phrase:

"If they succeed, we are all enslaved for life."

What does that mean? How does it come about? Methinks you are distilling lemonade back into lemons.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/07/2002; 16:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77747)
HOUSTON: Limbaugh on Gold
Why has Russ Limbaugh not mentioned gold?

He is part of the Establishment, its conservative wing, and obviously enjoys rubbing shoulders with the high and mighty. No part of the Establishment wants gold taken seriously by the public.

Furthermore, Limbaugh's following consists mostly of the conservative part of the economic middle class, and that part is seriously invested in stocks. It is still in the denial stage with respect to the great Equities Bubble, and Limbaugh, who has a great talent for knowing how his public feels, knows instinctively that he would lose their regard if he spoke about something which would cause them to face what they stubbornly do not want to face.
koala bear
(06/07/2002; 17:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 77749)
The unspeakable
A big thanks to Barnacle Bill and Golden Bear and CoBra(too) for responding to my question about the book, �Gold Wars�. I will order a copy from amazon.bomb.
JCTex and others have pointed out the recent use by the media of the �G� word. As a fellow gold enthusiast I am pleased to see the exposure, but I wonder if any will be so bold as to use the �D� word. What is the �D� word you say? Well it rhymes with recession but its much much worse. [Depression dummy] Using the politically-incorrect �D� word is only ok if it is used in a *historical* context. It must never be used in a projection or forecast, never. Mustn't spook the hoards with disturbing facts.
Anyway a big thanks to all the contributors at this forum and to MK & USAGold for hosting this great source of free info.
(06/07/2002; 17:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 77750)
Paper mache facade⊂section=commentary&request=investment_outlook&content_id=37661Pimco's Bill Gross -
"In sum, the secular evidence falls significantly in the reflationary camp symbolized in our cartoon by Luke Skywalker. China and Darth Vader's deflation are formidable foes, but movie goers and global citizens love to see the good guy win and so it should be this time, at least for the next 3-5 years. While the global recovery will be anemic by historical standards, a recovery it will be, and that will at least buy the financial system some more time. Still, there will be negative consequences over the same period from this superficially successful reflationary Episode II. Although inflation itself should be contained at 3%-4% levels, new bubbles, particularly in housing, are a distinct possibility. Lengthy periods of low, short-term interest rates are an inducement to lever and take risk that may or may not bear fruit. We and others see potential bubble risk in housing prices, and the growing dominance of the GSE's. We see risk in the increasing use of hedge funds to stretch returns in what is really only a 6%-7% asset return environment. We see the risk of a U.S. current account deficit "unwind" from near historic levels, which may be precipitated by a more than gradual decline in the dollar. This reflationary world of Luke Skywalker is by no means a safe and secure one economically, to say nothing of the increasing risk to life itself. It has morphed through the years from an economy primarily based on production, to one substantially reliant on growth via debt and new derivative life forms. We now live in an age of paper, and this paper mach� facade is not a permanent nor lasting one.

Misetich's comments

Can anyone explain the last line "We now live in an age of paper, and this paper mach� facade is not a permanent nor lasting one."?

Got gold?
(06/07/2002; 17:16:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77751)
Short & Sweet. . . .
Sir Rock. . . .

Have you ever thought about how much time the financial mainstream press consumes telling us all how much they don't like gold? If it were as meaningless to the individual portfolio as they purvey, why consume so much precious time laboring to keep investors away from it? If Mr. Kramer were totally honest, he would have more accurately described his feelings by saying that he "feared gold" -- because only the fear of gold would justify the level of energy committede regularly to its public crucifixion. Underneath it all, he knows at least intuitively, if not intellectually, why people buy gold. I've never been able to completely grasp why the Kramer's of the world fear it so. . . . After all none of us on this side of the fence suggest more than a prudent diversification into yellow metal. Why all the fuss? Just yesterday, I heard for the upteenth time from a private investor how her stock broker nearly had a "bird" when she said to sell off some of her portfolio to buy gold. . . . .For the Kramers of the world it's a 100% in paper or you're a fool -- precisely the opposite of legitimate portfolio theory. Then again. . . who's the fool in reality?? Only those of us who buy the self-serving propaganda.
(06/07/2002; 17:34:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77752)
Coulda sworn....
....something was up today. My problem. Sorry if I alarmed anyone. Silly me.
(06/07/2002; 17:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77753)
This week garage sale results:
DJIA: -3.4%
NASDAQ: -5.0%
S&P 500: -3.7% still looks like death.

(06/07/2002; 18:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77754)
Philharmonics...... none....gonna get some....welcome da party pal!
(06/07/2002; 18:27:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77755)
US April consumer credit shows $8.8 billion rise:

WASHINGTON, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers pulled out their credit and charge cards in April, as the amount of consumer debt outstanding posted its biggest monthly gain since late last year, according to a report released on Friday.

The Federal Reserve said credit advanced by $8.8 billion to a seasonally adjusted $1.698 trillion in April. That followed an upwardly revised $6.8 billion increase in March; the March number had been previously reported as a $4.6 billion gain.

April's larger-than-expected gain in debt showed consumers remained relatively confident about the direction of the U.S. economy as it slowly recovers from last year's recession. Wall Street analysts had expected credit to have posted a smaller $7.0 billion gain in the month.

MX: This is a dead-end street.
(06/07/2002; 18:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77756)
Last Post......SERIOUSLY!....
....asked the wife when the game was coming on.....9:00 o'clock??...ona fwiggin Friday???....sorry once again....never got excited about the xau.....but...GE strikes again....Kingdom of Jerks!
(06/07/2002; 19:21:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77757)
Cavallo in a tough job: win some, lose some believe you will find some important food for thought in the excerpts that follow:
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, June 7 (Reuters) - Argentine former economy chief Domingo Cavallo ... walked free from prison after arms smuggling charges were dropped on Friday... after a court found "no evidence" he was guilty...

...His arrest added to investor concern that financiers were being made into scapegoats for a crisis that a succession of five presidents since December have been unable to resolve. Four years of painful recession have sparked massive street protests.

...supporters say he is the victim of a witch hunt.

Reviled for a hated freeze on bank withdrawals which is still strangling the economy, plus tax increases and policies that saw joblessness rocket and poverty deepen, Cavallo was public enemy No. 1 when he was imprisoned. He is still despised.

"I think he's probably innocent of those charges but he's guilty of robbing the Argentine people. He should stay in jail for life," said Miguel Lopez, 60, echoing the widespread hatred Argentines now have of politicians of any hue.

Cavallo was once feted as the architect of Argentina's one-to-one peg to the U.S. dollar that heralded economic growth and the end of hyperinflation in the 1990s.

But more recently he was unable to end the grinding recession. In January, the peg to the dollar was ditched and the peso was devalued. It is now worth about 28 U.S. cents.

--------(click URL to access full text)-------

At the time, the peso-dollar peg was a good prescription for the hyperinflation that ailed Argentina -- AT THAT TIME (a decade ago). The problem was their monetary architecture was not designed to take that pill long-term; yet that's what they did, leading to the grinding recession that finally resulted in bloody riots and restrictive controls on money and banking activities.

My friends, I urge you each to extrapolate on this model. Considered to resolution, it will lead you to hold gold in the right capacity.

(06/07/2002; 19:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77758)
Confidence in Washington
Is it heading for an even bigger fall?Maybe so.

It seems that some folks in the White House were taking Cipro BEFORE the first anthrax case was reported.

Larry Klayman of Judicial Watch has filed litigation today to extract documents that will tell all. The WH is foot-dragging on his anthrax FOIA requests.

One's imagination can run wild with this one.

Let's see...

* A rogue scientist at USAMRID [Bad Military guy with pimples] gets mad at the US lack of smallpox preparedness and decides to blackmail the WH with hand scribbled post card threats demanding more vaccine. Eventually [Months and many bodies later] more vaccine is "Found". Tens of Millions of doses...just laying around in a freezer [Probably next to the original FDA test package of Ball-Park franks].

Michael Creighton blows this one off his Hollywood movie story-board because it just isn't believable.

* The guys and gals at the White House were transported through a Star Trek worm-hole to the Gamma Quadrant where the were forced to inhale Cipro dust by the Dominion Forces so as to keep them invisible while their ships were cloaked. Nahhhhh....Too corny.

* The White House folks thought Cipro was Viagra.

This spin has possibility.

It just keeps getting better and better guys and girls! Pretty soon John Ashcroft will get boooed in Peoria. Save THAT tape!

If top officials were secretly acting to preserve their own medical safety regarding anthrax while not informing US citizens of the threat, it will be a hammer blow to Washington credibility. Add this to the growing stench of Wall Street, the lies of the Federal Reserve anf other "Regulators" and we have a widening latrine of moral corruption and a plummeting US confidence.

It might just be enough to drive folks to take some real financial self-preservation measures.
(06/07/2002; 20:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77759)
1999 Customs Corruption...Tons of Dope...Senators Involved...Did I Just Say It Keeps Getting Better? a Terrorist Threat Too!

This threat involved the potential for terrorists to use pressurized rail tanker cars as instruments of destruction. While running a counter-narcotics smuggling operation in Southern California, I found that narco traffickers were using rail tanker cars to import tons of illegal narcotics into the country via these rail cars.

These suspicions were confirmed when I seized 8,000 pounds of marijuana and 34 kilos of cocaine in one of these cars. As a result of this high-level, multi-taskforce investigation, we were shocked at the ease with which the narco traffickers accomplished not only the smuggling of these narcotics into the U.S., but also the delivery to their destinations in the U.S. via these rail cars. With phony I.D. and cash, the deliveries were easily made over the internet or via telephone with the railroads� customer service departments.

In 1999, years before 9-11, we concluded that our nation was at serious risk of terrorist attacks. It would be easy for terrorists to simply copy the modus opperandi of the narco traffickers and send these cars to any rail spur in the U.S. loaded with explosives, bio hazards, or a combination thereof.

Feinstein's Failure

Over two years ago we took these concerns, as well as our concerns of corrupt Customs managers, to the FBI, Office of Special Council, the Commissioner of Customs, and to several senators and congressional leaders. In fact, 24 Customs employees signed a letter begging for an investigation into what we all felt was outright corruption, obstruction and violation of civil rights in Southern California. This letter was sent to U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., through certified mail.

Not only did Sen. Feinstein fail to initiate an investigation into our allegations, approximately two weeks after her office received this letter, she was seen on a Customs yacht with one of the very managers against whom we were making these allegations.
Well...Hollywood may want this one after all...It's right in their back yard!
(06/07/2002; 20:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77760)
Halftime.......I fibbed..........
.....Sector's posts I print...and savor....who is that guy?
(06/07/2002; 21:27:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77761)
Puplava: Friday's Stock Market WrapUp
"In many ways, since the U.S. is no longer financially independent or self sufficient in capital, the fate of the economy and our financial markets are in foreign hands. Greenspan, by failing to stop the financial bubble by shutting down the money presses, has created a monumental disaster of the Fed's own making. The easy money of the 1990's was a product of a loose monetary policy that injected billions of money and credit into the financial system. Now those chickens are coming home to roost leaving the Fed with little room to maneuver. It is only a question of time before the Fed is forced to raise interest rates in what will be a feeble attempt to support the dollar. Either the Fed will raise rates preemptively, or the markets will do it for them. There is no way out. The rate of growth in Federal Reserve credit creation has been massive. The worst days for the stock market are still in front of us. After the stock market began to deflate, a second bubble was created in the housing market. That bubble will be popped when interest rates start to rise later this summer. Rates have been slowly creeping up since the beginning of the year with long term-rates tumbling on Friday. Long-term Treasury yields are now at 5.66% on the benchmark 30-year bond and 5.065 on the 10-year note.

The Gold Markets
As gold goes through a technical correction it will pass from weak hands into stronger hands before it makes its next assault at new technical targets of $340, and then the ultimate battle that will occur at $400. I suspect it will be an unforeseen event that enables the metals to take out new targets in the first stage of a new bull market in precious metals. The fireworks are just getting started. Gold producers who have been heavy sellers and hedgers of their own product are now furiously buying back and calling in their hedge book. That alone is causing part of gold's rise. However, as I have maintained, the real gold and silver story rest on supply and demand issues. There are no new large supply deposits coming on stream to replace current production and diminishing reserves. That is the real fundamental story of the gold and silver markets. The rest of the story is just background noise. The geo-political tensions and the turmoil in the financial and currency markets are just land mines that will only accelerate the upward movement in prices. The most powerful element will be fear. Just as greed is a powerful emotion that propels higher paper asset prices, fear is the emotion that drives higher precious metals markets.

Corporate Earnings
The final story this week was, as predicted, the bad news on the corporate earnings front. Intel dropped a bombshell yesterday by saying its sales, margins, and profits would be below expectations. Add to Intel's news, the plethora of new scandals, and new SEC investigations, and it wasn't hard to see why stock prices fell this week. They have a further ways to go before we reach oversold extremes. For the week the Dow lost 3.4%, bringing its YTD losses to 4.31%. The S&P 500 fell 3.7% with losses this year now at 10.5%. The Nasdaq got hammered again this week losing 5% bringing its YTD losses to 21.27%."

Waverider: Another excellent Friday market wrap up by Puplava. David Tice made a good analogy at the Gold Conference paralleling the economy to a delinquent teenager who should have been disciplined at age 12. Similarly, the Fed missed its timing to rein in the economic bubble and consequently total financial credit grew by 70% between 1997 and 2000. As with the undisciplined boy, there's inevitably a heavy price to pay despite the Feds continued attempts to prevent purging of the excesses of the 90's. It's gata Puplava said - either the Fed will raise rates preemptively, or the markets will do it for them. I too am kicking back with a glass of Sangiovese!
(06/07/2002; 21:40:42 MDT - Msg ID: 77762)
standing on a fortune.
Once apon a time :), When I was 14 in New Zealand it so happened that I perchanced to be-friend another 14 year old that was as enthusiastic as myself at coin collecting.
It was the custom in the early days when one built a home
to place thereunder the concrete doorstep one Gold coin dated the same year as the house was built.
Anyway it so hapened that another school mate got wind of our competitive love as it were and brought in 3 coins and
my mate consumately purchased the two older copper ones, his lunch money limited.
And woe was me whom payed .60 cents for a shining 1908 sovereign for which I discovered was gold that day from my high school engineering teacher and sold it to my father for the going price of 170.00 that next day. This was my introduction to Gold fever.
(06/07/2002; 22:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77763)
$50,000,000.00 in "Physical" Gold & Silver Being Bought & Taken Out of Circulation!!
More Pressure on The Cabal.......I won't go into details as it's kind of a grey area of Forum rules, but CEF (Central Fund of Canada) is buying another 50 mill in Ag & Au bullion. This goes in their private vault (segregated) in a Canadian Bank. This Gold & Silver is not for resale or lease either...Yahoo!
More pressure on the short paper side....YGM

News at GATA yahoo egroup....
(06/07/2002; 22:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77764)
CEF or CPM (Centennial Precious Metals)
No Contest........@ CEF you're paying approx. 20 % over spot for shares to own Gold in some vault other than your own...With all due respect to CEF I'd rather buy here from MK and 'save' money and 'savour' the Gold in my own hands....YGM
(06/07/2002; 23:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77765)
Gold in ancient times?? is my first post to the forum, though I have been a daily lurker here since Day One when the day's posts could be viewed almost without scrolling.

I must admit at the outset, that I have come to this forum as a blotting paper, with scant financial knowledge or experience, and perhaps with so little that it was positively dangerous! Checking in here has given me an education that one cannot obtain anywhere else, and for me (whose background is in sport), it has enabled me to see another world that I kinda knew about, but found very complex. I still glaze over, both in confusion for my own inability, but also for the depth of understanding of so many of the posters on this forum. I can only dream of reaching that level of understanding and having something meaningful to post. So thank you all very much for the sharing that goes on here. And thank you, Michael, for hosting this eclectic 'university'.

Given that it is a weekend, and a long one at that here in Oz, the following link is proffered for those interested to grab a coffee (or a Negro for BB) and settle in, for it is quite a long document.

II came across this article just this week, though it was written a while back; it is offered in the 'FWIW; department, and it presents an interesting context for the use of gold in ancient times.
The ritu, it was said, reveals itself as physical matter in the form of the purest and most noble of all metals: gold. Hence, gold was deemed an 'ultimate truth'......

and further........

Hence, it is determined that there are two distinctly separate forms of physical gold: the straightforward metal as we know it, and a much 'higher' state of gold - that is, gold in a different dimension of perceived matter, and this is the white powder of gold, the hidden manna whose secret manufacture was known only by the Master Craftsmen.
So, what precisely is the 'highward' or 'high-spin' state which converts gold (and platinum-group metals) into a sweet-tasting, impalpable white powder?
The link above is a second document at this site by the same author that takes this story further through the middle ages and beyond, and is also an interesting read. But again, it's in the 'FWIW' department.

Cheers and thanks
Simply Me
(06/07/2002; 23:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77766)
RE: sector's reports on terrorist threats. bio-hazard, chemical, or nuclear threats begin to materialize. Who ya gonna call?

Feb. 28, 2002 -- In the four-month period from Nov. 12 through Feb. 11, seven world-class microbiologists in different parts of the world were reported dead. Six died of "unnatural" causes, while the cause of the seventh's death is questionable.

� On Nov. 12, Benito Que, 52, was found comatose in the street near the laboratory where he worked at the University of Miami Medical School. He died on Dec. 6.

� On Nov. 16, Don C. Wiley, 57, vanished, and his abandoned rental car was found on the Hernando de Soto Bridge outside Memphis, Tenn. His body was found on Dec. 20.

� On Nov. 23, Vladimir Pasechnik, 64, was found dead in Wiltshire, England, not far from his home.

� On Dec. 10, Robert Schwartz, 57, was found murdered in his rural home in Loudoun County, Va.

� On Dec, 11, Set Van Nguyen, 44, was found dead in the airlock entrance to a walk-in refrigerator in the laboratory where he worked in Victoria State, Australia.

� On Feb. 8, Vladimir Korshunov, 56, was found dead on a Moscow street.

� And on Feb. 11, Ian Langford, 40, was found dead in his home in Norwich, England.


A meeting of the Center for Law and the Public Health (CLPH) was convened on Oct. 5. This group is run jointly by Georgetown University Law School and Johns Hopkins Medical School, and was founded under the auspices of the Center for Disease Control (CDC). CLPH was formed one month prior to the 2000 Presidential election. The purpose of the October meeting was to draft legislation to respond to the then current bioterrorism threat.

After working only 18 days, on Nov. 23 CLPH released a 40-page document called the Model Emergency Health Powers Act (MEHPA). This was a "model" law that HHS is suggesting be enacted by the 50 states to handle future public health emergencies such as bioterrorism. A revised version was released on Dec. 21 containing more specific definitions of "public health emergency" as it pertains to bioterrorism and biologic agents, and includes language for those states that want to use the act for chemical, nuclear or natural disasters.

According to the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS), after declaring a "public health emergency", and without consulting with public health authorities, law enforcement, the legislature or courts, a state governor using MEHPA, or anyone he/she decides to empower, can among many things:

� Require any individual to be vaccinated. Refusal constitutes a crime and will result in quarantine.
� Require any individual to undergo specific medical treatment. Refusal constitutes a crime and will result in quarantine.
� Seize any property, including real estate, food, medicine, fuel or clothing, an official thinks necessary to handle the emergency.
� Seize and destroy any property alleged to be hazardous. There will be no compensation or recourse.
� Draft you or your business into state service.
� Impose rationing, price controls, quotas and transportation controls.
� Suspend any state law, regulation or rule that is thought to interfere with handling the declared emergency.

As of this writing the law has been passed in Kentucky. According to AAPS, it has been introduced in the legislatures of Arizona, California, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. It is expected to be introduced shortly in Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, and Wisconsin. MEHPA is being evaluated by the executive branches in North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington, DC.

The research the microbiologists were doing could have developed methods of treating diseases like anthrax and smallpox without conventional antibiotics or vaccines. Pharmaceutical contracts to deal with these diseases will total hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars. If epidemics could be treated in non-traditional ways, MEHPA might not be necessary.

Simply: Since this article was written (Feb. '02) more important microbiologists have died. Some reports put the number at more than a dozen. Killed by enemy governments? Terrorist plots? Pharmaceutical companies? Fascist elements of our own government? Any combination of the above?

I wonder how much gold it might take to bribe your way out of quarantine?

Gandalf the White
(06/08/2002; 00:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77767)
WELCOME Sir Seagull !!!
seagull (06/07/02; 23:19:02MT - msg#: 77765)
"This is my first post to the forum, though I have been a daily lurker here since Day One when the day's posts could be viewed almost without scrolling."
A very warm WELCOME to you in the DOWNUNDER !! YES INDEED, the USAGOLD Forum has come a LONG WAY since DAY #1, and with yours' and other LURKERS' help, we all can continue to learn more from all corners of this Orb to enable all to have the data to reach the TRUTH !
Golden Bear
(06/08/2002; 00:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77768)
Hey Koala, is another recommendation for Gold Wars for you by Adam Hamilton in his latest weekly piece - Gold stock investing 101 - at the above link.

"...Hedging, in the gold stock world, has evolved into something more closely resembling pure speculation as retired Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips documents in his awesome new book ?Gold Wars?..."�

Golden Bear
(06/08/2002; 00:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77769)
Simply Me (msg#: 77766)
Thanks for the link...For those who haven't read it, all the microbiologists were specialists in their field - Research in DNA sequencing, related to vaccine production against viral epidemics and germ warfare....
(06/08/2002; 06:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77770)
Aristotle (06/07/02; 16:39:46MT - msg#: 77746)

Last night you wrote:

Hipplebeck, my own outlook isn't as bleak as yours appears to be
Can you help breathe some warm moist air into my pathetic little fledgling stormclouds by explaining your phrase:

"If they succeed, we are all enslaved for life."

What does that mean? How does it come about? Methinks you are distilling lemonade back into lemons.

Aristotle, If they succeed in breaking the link between gold and money in peoples minds, then people will no longer have an agreed upon scale to measure with. It will be the end of freedom for everyone because oligovernments (a combination of corporate oligarchs and government) will have complete control of not only all money, but the perception of what money is and how much is out there. With the facade of statistics and indexes and such, no one will know anything about how much money has come into existance. Through derivatives, the rich will be able to control all prices no matter how much money they create for their own use. It will be back to the days of the feudal lords on a global scale. As time goes on, oligovernment control becomes more and more sophisticated until we are truly slaves to the self chosen elite. "The nobles" will be the new royalty and the rest the serfs, indebted for life. In the old days, they knew who the royalty was, so when it came time to rebel, they knew whose heads to cut off, but in the new world order, they will be hidden behind layers of corporate structure, so identifying the new royalty will be much harder, and with new serveillance techniques it will be harder and harder for the little guy to communicate his outrage to his brothers.
The new world order looks very bleak to me. But then I am only a carpenter.
I am looking forward to the post new world order where we will all have gold and silver coins to trade with.
(06/08/2002; 06:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77771)
The question you posed deserves to be mentioned again, and again, and again. In fact, it should be put in the Hall of Fame.

"..Have you ever thought about how much time the financial mainstream press consumes telling us all how much they don't like gold?
If it were as meaningless to the individual portfolio as they purvey, why consume so much precious time laboring to keep investors away from it?..."
Simply Me
(06/08/2002; 07:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77772)
(No Subject)
@Golden Bear: Thanks for adding that important qualifying statement.

The search for the meaning of gold in our lives has become the search for truth.

(06/08/2002; 09:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77773)
Hello seagull..... to hear ya mate!....Here's a link to another 'Seagull'


*My brothers!" he cried. "Who is more responsible than a gull who finds and follows a meaning, a higher purpose for life? For a thousand years we have scrabbled after fish heads, but now we have a chance, let me show you what I've found..."

*A long silence. "Well, this kind of flying has always been here to be learned by anybody who wanted to discover it; that's got nothing to do with time. We're ahead of the fashion, maybe. Ahead of the way that most gulls fly."

* "Poor Fletch. Don't believe what your eyes are telling you. All they show is limitation. Look with your understanding, find out what you already know, and you'll see the way to fly."

* "To begin with," he said heavily, "you've got to understand that a seagull is an unlimited idea of freedom, an image of the Great Gull, and your whole body, from wingtip to wingtip, is nothing more than your though itself."

"Seagull" appropriate handle for a 'Truth Seeker'
(06/08/2002; 09:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77774)
Media Talking Heads..."Doth Protest too Much"The more they denigrate Gold the more they 'inadvertantly'
bring the thoughts of Gold back into peoples lives...They serve only to multiply the #'s of contrarians by using the word 'Gold'... The sheer mention of it causes minds to wander from the 'Paper Fold'....IMHO...YGM
(06/08/2002; 10:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77775)
JP Morgan Forecast Dollar Dive!
Bloomburg.comDive 15% In Next Two Years
Bloomberg News

NEW YORK - The US dollar may drop by as much as 15 per cent against major currencies in the next two years, extending a four-month slide as demand for United States assets wanes, according to JP Morgan Chase.

Foreigners may hesitate to invest in the US on concern that there may be more terrorist attacks there, said Ms Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at JP Morgan, the fifth-biggest foreign exchange trader.

She said expectations of a sluggish economic recovery and reduced confidence in corporate accounting will cut demand for US stocks and bonds.

The dollar's slide since February is 'the real deal', she said. 'You're not going to have enough capital flows to offset' the deficit in the current account, the broadest measure of a country's trade.

The dollar fell to a 16-month low against the euro and a six-month low against the yen last week on speculation that a rebound in the world's biggest economy is losing steam, prompting foreigners to shun US stocks.

The currency rose to 93.52 US cents per euro in London trading yesterday from 93.82 late on Wednesday and to 124.92 yen from 124.57, on expectations that employment reports due today will ease concern that growth is slowing in the US.

JP Morgan's forecasting models show that 'fair value' for the dollar is US$1 to US$1.05 per euro and 105 to 110 yen.

The dollar may take longer than two years to reach that fair value level against the yen as Japan has been selling its currency to slow its rally, said Ms Patterson. 'The yen will keep strengthening but it will be a gradual move.'

The US current account shortfall was US$417 billion (S$750.6 billion), the equivalent of 4.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year. JP Morgan expects the deficit to widen to a record US$492 billion this year, or 4.6 per cent of GDP, and balloon to 4.9 per cent next year.

In one example of waning demand for US assets, foreigners' net purchases of US bonds in the first quarter were 30 per cent less than the same period last year, said JP Morgan. -- Bloomberg News

(06/08/2002; 10:29:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77776)
Extreme Example of Gold Numismatic Value Collecting....
1933 St Gaudens........$2 - 5 Million?????MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR 1933 GOLD DOUBLE EAGLE

PHOENIX, AZ (June 6) Craig Smith, CEO of Swiss
America will be available for live comment at the
first West Coast viewing of the famous 1933 $20
Saint Gaudens coin to be auctioned at Sotheby's
in NYC on July 30th.

Mr. Smith will be bidding on the historic one-of-
a-kind coin which survived the great gold meltdown
of 1933 by FDR. Smith and other coin experts expect
the coin to bring between $2,000,0000 and
$5,000,000 - making it the most valuable coin on

Craig's highly acclaimed new book, "Rediscovering Gold
in the 21st Century: The Complete Guide to the Next
Gold Rush," was written to help readers understand why
gold is timeless money and the basis for all "money."

Never underestimate the value of Gold with somebody's face on it!.......YGM (:<})

turkey hunter
(06/08/2002; 10:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77777)
The rules have changed received my latest news letter from Joan Veon. Joan Veon is an independent reporter who has attended most if not all the big NWO meetings. The title of the newsletter is "The
Completion of the Final Thrust" Changing the law to create stock market crashes. She discussed the Repeal of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act and the Revision of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934. Both which changed America. The most unfortunate aspect is that the common investor will have no protection from market swings that now can be created by very powerful individuals who buy low and sell high.

To sum it up she says that Corporations and Foundations have taken over the governments. She quoted Andrew Crockett, President of the BIS at a US-EU Symposium earlier this year, "Advances in information technology {have created} the transformation from a government [controlled financial system] to a market-led [corporate and foundations]global financial system". Crockett also said that the BIS played a significant role in changing and setting up the new global system.

The entire SEC Act of 1934 which was part of how congress fixed the 1929 stock market crash is being re-written and will now give authority to a non-elected group of people who
will change our accounting and auditing rules, thus creating an open season for those in control to seize control.

Conclusion: If you think the volatility has increased, wait. Now that all borders are down between nation states everytime the international bankers and insiders see an opportunity to cash in it will be the little guy who gets squeezed. Where will the little guy go for Justice?
Not to congress for they are in the process of voting all of their power to independent committees,boards,foundations and non profit organizations.

What should be a core holding in our portfolios? Gold and silver.

Turkey Hunter. I've read a lot about the BIS lately and me thinks that the BIS is wanting to take America down and they have the ability to do it so Europe can be the financial power in IMHO.

The link above is for past articles written by Joan Veon. A lot of info.
Mr Gresham
(06/08/2002; 10:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77778)
(Nice post #77777 you got there, turkeyhunter!)

Gold takes a breather, and I get a week behind in reading -- just dropping in and catching a few skims doesn't satisfy my worry I'm missing great stuff. But "real life" intrudes.

When I ask myself why I'm not putting this reading ahead of other stuff (like collecting old fiat fees from past-due clients -- a depressing task if ever twas one), the only answer that pops in my head is: Gold has started acting (more) like a regular market now. The manips (or one branch of 'em) have lost some control, and I'm on board for the ride, TG.

gotta run...
(06/08/2002; 11:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77779)
Investors Are Getting Angry window is closing! The road to survival and wealth is through Gold.
Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 13:59:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77780)
Jobless dip doesn't spell recovery

WASHINGTON, June 7 (UPI) -- It's far too soon to state that the worst is over for the U.S. economy, simply as a result of a dip in the unemployment rate, a senior government official warned Friday. But ahead of the mid-term elections in November, most Congressmen were more eager to focus on the few positive signs of an upturn in growth prospects, rather than looking at the broader picture that actually remains bleak for many in the nation. The Labor Department reported earlier in the day that May's unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent from 6.0 percent the previous month, while non-farm payrolls rose by 41,000, marking the biggest one-month increase since February 2001.

Black Blade: The unemployment rate fell according to the BLS. Of course they don't count those who have given up, benefits run out, don't qualify for benefits, etc. What else happened here? I think that people should also keep in mind that first time claims fell last week as the data included the holiday Memorial Day when no claims could be filed. Data for last month's non-farm payroll rise was revised from a gain of 43,000 to only 6,000 (after smoothing and filtering of data of course). From the BLS report: The number of long-term unemployed persons--those unemployed 27 weeks or longer--rose by 142,000 in May, following increases of similar size in March and April. This measure has increased by about 1 million persons over the past 12 months. About 1.5 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in May, up from 1.1 million a year earlier. These individuals reported that they wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they had not actively searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers was 407,000 in May. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. Also, note that the BLS will change the rules for data revision (that is set new rules for data manipulation � a common practice since 1997). Meanwhile more and more companies are announcing layoffs. The "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 14:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77781)
US credit card debts soar

Many shoppers use credit cards rather than cash. America's shoppers are as keen as ever to whip out their plastic cards, according to the latest lending data. Credit card loans rose $4.2bn (�2.9bn) in April from the previous month when the rise had been $2.3bn. Overall, consumer credit in the US - which includes car finance and other loans not secured in property, as well as credit card debts - rose a seasonally adjusted $8.8bn in April from the previous month, the Federal Reserve said.

Black Blade: This is not a good sign. This will end badly as new regulations make it much more difficult to declare bankruptcy on credit card debt. As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 14:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77782)
When Options Count, Profit Slump Widens: Taking Stock∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APQDVKhYkV2hlbiBP

New York, June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc. reported $21 million in income from operations last year. The biggest networking-equipment maker would have had a loss of $2.8 billion had it included the cost of stock options granted to employees, according to research by Lehman Brothers Inc. Now relegated to footnotes in annual reports, option expenses may be included in corporate bottom lines -- slashing profits for many companies. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and investors including Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Warren Buffett are among those pressing for more rigorous accounting. The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would require companies to record the cost of executives' options. Standard & Poor's said last month it will count all employee options when it calculates earnings for S&P 500 Index members.

Black Blade: Yet investors are being lied to. They are told that companies like Cisco are making a "profit". That's a lie of course. But trickery and any means to fool the investor seems to be "fair play" as far as Wall Street is concerned. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) is vigorously opposed to a crack down on this dishonesty. Can you say "Campaign Contribution"?

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 14:25:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77783)
A Poke at Merrill's Black Eye
Schwab, Prudential Ads Try to Capitalize on Bad News


A new television commercial for Charles Schwab & Co. shows a manager telling a group of brokers: "We've gotta lot of stock to move today, people. Tell your customers this one's hot. . . . Just don't mention the fundamentals, they stink. . . . Now let's put some lipstick on this pig." Coming as it does just weeks after state authorities disclosed e-mails in which Merrill Lynch & Co. former top Internet analyst Henry Blodget privately disparaged stock his group was touting publicly, CBS refused to run the Schwab ad. Network officials said it unfairly impugned the ethics of all Wall Street firms and seemed to be a direct attack on Merrill Lynch.

Black Blade: Unfortunately many investment houses put lipstick on a lot of pigs. Merrill Lynch and many others now face a lot of angry investors with lawyers in tow. An avalanche of lawsuits are sure to follow.

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 14:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 77784)
Stocks in deepest funk 'in 30 years'

Veteran market watchers are stunned by how deep investor pessimism is running, even as North America's economic fundamentals improve. "This is the longest, nastiest, most wicked bear market I have seen in 30 years, and it is likely to continue," said Roger Hornett, head of Theodoor Gilissen Securities in London. "There's no reason right now to do any buying ... the mood is miserable," said Michael Palazzi, head of trading for SG Cowen in New York. "We're bunkering down."

Black Blade: Much of the problem for Wall Street strategists is that they believe that the economy is improving and they are stunned that the bear market is so brutal. These unfortunate believers don't realize that the government data is massaged to make the picture brighter than it really is. Let's face it, this data manipulation is a political game. The reason that the markets are tanking are because there are no rising corporate profits, layoffs are rising, consumers are tapped out and can't keep going into debt to prop up the economy, consumers and corporations are buried under crushing debt, etc.

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 14:41:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77785)
Adelphia kept 2 sets of books

June 7 � Adelphia Communications Corp. inflated the number of its cable-TV subscribers by between 400,000 and 500,000, or as much as 10 percent of the company's total customer base, according to people familiar the situation. In addition, investigators have uncovered evidence that Adelphia kept two sets of accounting books for its capital expenditures, one of which was shown to Wall Street and boosted the amount Adelphia spent to upgrade its cable systems.

Black Blade: Personally, I don't think that Adelphia is alone. There are a lot of warts hidden under thick layers of makeup on Wall Street. Maybe investors are just beginning to wake up and smell the coffee. There is so much dishonesty on Wall Street, in investment houses, brokerages, and banks, and in corporations (corporate executives, auditors, and boards of directors).

(06/08/2002; 14:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77786)
re BIS taking down america! the sting the bis has in place. note the date of the article. hope ypu been paying attention. as black blade eloquently says
as usual get gold, get silver get supplies. etc. etc. etc.
(06/08/2002; 15:17:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77787)
Mr. Johnston is the same gentleman who wrote the 1975 letter I posted several weeks ago. My father-in-law was given a copy of the older letter by a goldbug in his office. Apparently copies were circulating around Houston back in the 1970s.

What an interesting guy! What a great dad to have!!
koala bear
(06/08/2002; 16:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77788)
7 good years & 7bad years?
7 good years & 7 bad years

I offer the following thoughts here not to start some Biblical discussion, but only as food-for-though to those who have a common interest in the future of the PoG. I realize that the following theory only holds together loosely and could easily be deconstructed. [Let's hope it fails utterly]

WARNING: Reach for the salt shaker now.

Joseph correctly interpreted Pharaoh's dreams to mean that there would be 7 good years followed by 7 bad years, this is recorded in Genesis chapter 41. Many people believe that the pattern of events recorded in Genesis correlates with the book of Revelation, I agree with that position and would ask those who believe in the validity of Scripture to consider the following:
We in the western world have enjoyed 7 very good years. According to the index [DJIA] the �Clinton-bull-market� begun around December 1994. If we add 7 years to Dec. 94 we get Dec.01.
I have been kicking-around these thoughts for a number of years and I was going to dismiss them earlier this year when things looked as if they were completely wrong. But it seems that gold entered a bull market sometime around Dec.01 �hmmm� *If* this theory is correct it would mean we are facing 7 bad years. Only time will tell for sure.

A couple of things I would like to stress at this point is:
1) That I do not believe in the current �rapture� theory. Don't think that anyone is about to be raptured into heaven [eyes rolling].
2) And I am not suggesting that we are on the verge of what is commonly called "the great tribulation".

Joseph wisely prepared for the difficult times ahead and before it was all over the government owned everything. All money [silver & gold], all land, all cattle, all people, all debts, everything [Gen.47:14-18]. Total economic conquest. What a triumph for the welfare state! Let's hope this never happens again. I shudder to think what type of despotic monolith would emerge from such a coup. Are we staring down the barrel of the greatest depression in the history of humanity? Please note, the famine was so severe that the "money failed". And their money was real money not the paper & plastic crap we use! �hmmm� Could baked beans become a medium of exchange in the future? [insert fart gag here] I digress. Would anyone seriously include baked beans in their portfolio?

(06/08/2002; 17:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77789)
Telus adds to the bone pile
Telus, the telephone provider in Alberta & British Columbia
is chopping 11,000 jobs which is 40% of its unionized workforce.
(06/08/2002; 18:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77790)
Koala Bear
Bean-O-ManiaI have never ate a bean I did not like. Red,pinto,lima,navy
and black, you name it. Long has it graced our tables in some form. Where would Chili be without the bean. Yepper it is in my survival portfolio.
Imagine all the Wendy's
Its easy if you try
Large domino's pizza
And Mickey D's french fries
Imagine all that fast food
Vanish before your eyes, Yoo Hoo ah hoo
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I can tell you that one day
It will all be gone

But the bean will go on and on. Right along with Gold. :0)

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 18:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77791)
Uruguay leader races to Argentina to explain slur≠ws_id=reu-n03349003&feed=reu&date=20020603&cat=INDUSTRY

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, June 3 (Reuters) - Uruguay's president will fly to Buenos Aires in a frantic effort to patch up usually cordial relations with Argentina after calling the South American neighbor's politicians a "band of thieves." An Argentine government spokesman said President Jorge Batlle's trip on Tuesday is to "clarify" his comments in a television interview aired on Monday, where he also said Argentina's president had no idea how to save the nation from economic crisis. "The Argentine situation is an Argentine problem: a band of thieves from top to bottom," Batlle told Bloomberg Television during an outburst in which he shouted at the interviewer complaining Uruguay should not be compared to Argentina.

Black Blade: Getting a bit "testy" in South America these days.

Black Blade
(06/08/2002; 18:50:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77792)
Brazil feared to be next potential meltdown

With the dust just barely settled from Argentina's disastrous debt default and currency devaluation, all eyes in the emerging markets are focusing on Brazil as the site of the next potential meltdown. Brazil may have much deeper debt problems that won't be easily solved regardless of who wins the election, according to analysts at New york-based bond research firm CreditSights Inc. In the months following the Argentine crisis, many strategists noted with relief the economic collapse had not spread to neighbouring countries like Brazil. But now it seems the domino effect from Argentina was just slow to materialize.

Black Blade: It is widely expected that Brazil will default on debt just as Argentina has. Columbia and Venezuela are also in deep trouble. The whole region could easily spiral out of control and lead to a lot of political unrest.

(06/08/2002; 18:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 77793)
Hipplebeck, thanks bunches for your #77770 reply today
Prior to getting much further down this road, I want to refresh your memory with your opening comment to me, and then follow up with a very important question. And so as not to bore you unnecessarily with my longwinded thoughts, I'll leave it to you to ferret out the problematic relevance between my question as a follow-up specifically to your comment.

You said:

"Aristotle, If they succeed in breaking the link between gold and money in peoples minds, then people will no longer have an agreed upon scale to measure with."

Which begs me to ask:

Hipplebeck, will you please "discover" where in world inflation comes from?

Property. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/08/2002; 19:44:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77794)
telus bonepile
Whoa Bulldog my friend, Im from that neck of the woods and the story is that they have offered a buyout package to 11,000 and not that many to be laid off, albeit im sure if 11,000 dont accept this offer we can see that many lose their jobs, but to keep the bonepile numbers legit i think we need to add total authenticity to the reports we make to the forum, I really only substantiate the numbers from Sir Black Blade as this was his baby and tend to filter out the rest because i trust his research. please dont take this as personal offense as i value everyones opinion for their right to freedom of speech. To change to another topic I remember reading somewhere ( cant remember what or whem ) an article regarding the Hunt Bros building a silver mine in Canada and having to mothball it while it was fully operational due to bankruptcy by comex bs does anyone know if this mine is operating? by what name? and by what company? thanks people
(06/08/2002; 20:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77795)
Sir MK, my setiments exactly. msg # 77751

(06/08/2002; 21:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77796)
Mainstream media unveiling China concern

JUNE 17, 2002
By Jeffrey E. Garten
When Everything Is Made in China
The world economy is getting more reliant on Chinese factories. But having one giant supplier could mean a giant disruption
During the past few months, Intel Corp. (INTC ) announced a $100 million investment in Shanghai to assemble Pentium 4 microprocessors. Dell Computer Corp. (DELL ) moved its giant PC-making facility from Kuala Lumpur to Xiamen. The provincial government of Shenzhen said it would provide $5 billion to boost its integrated-circuit industry. It's not hard to connect the dots. "China is becoming a manufacturing superpower," Kenneth Courtis, Goldman, Sachs & Co.'s vice-chairman for Asia, says, "and the momentum seems unstoppable."
The big question is whether the world economy is becoming so dependent on China as an industrial lifeline that it will soon be dangerously vulnerable to a major supply disruption ...........There isn't an easy answer for every problem, of course. But it is not too much to ask the Bush Administration to create a joint government-business task force to examine key questions. Is the approximately 90% of all foreign investment that is geographically located in China's coastal provinces a dangerous concentration? Should Washington take another look at tax and tariff incentives to make the entire Caribbean Basin--Mexico, Central America, and the islands--more attractive to foreign manufacturers? Should multinational companies be encouraged to hold larger inventories closer to home? Does China need to beef up its security around its vast industrial parks?
For a quarter of a century, Washington and Wall Street have wanted China to become an integral part of the world economy. Their wish has been granted, and now it's time to come to grips with the link for more. The high level of foreign investment in a communist country with few human rights is slated to grow and grow- unless funds are reapportioned domestically, locally throughout the world, resulting from financial shock and crisis, gov't. revenue shortfalls, depression, stagflation, or a less predictable event(s) forcing adjustments. Transportation for example, relies on cheap and abundant energy, reasonable peacetime insurance rates, low cost labor, etc. Social and labor unrest, war, and a natural or terrorist disaster in China or elsewhere, also can precipitate national movements of fund repatriation and the holding of official and private precious metal. After the dollar loses it's international reserve currency status and favor abroad, prices of overseas goods will increase, and likely increase with higher energy, insurance, tax, and other costs. US industry will need a minimum of lower taxes and less restrictive regulations for a renewal of our manufacturing, mining, textiles, etc.
(06/08/2002; 21:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77797)
Link for below source of China story below
(06/08/2002; 22:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77798)
Pray tell us, where should we go to for a safe haven in a world gone paranoid?
"The world, let's admit, has gone insane, or damn close to it. That's hardly a revelation in our post-September 11 existence, characterised as it is by suicide bombers and anthrax scares. But recent events in Asia drove the point home.

So where to go for safety? To gold, perhaps. Japanese households, worried about banks failing, have been buying it all year."

Waverider: An interesting article on the "what ifs"...of course Gold is the answer!
(06/08/2002; 22:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77799)
Previous link
I see that you need to scroll down to the article, can't get a direct link.
(06/08/2002; 22:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77800)
Mining legislation hailed as a pot of gold for new entrants a direct link - please scroll down and click on article.

"Cosatu and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) this weekend called for the country's new mining legislation to get tougher on monopoly ownership in the mining sector.

While supporting the overall intention of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Bill, the unions said in a statement on Friday that the licensing system envisaged carried the danger of resurrecting the ownership patterns of previous decades.

The unions said that once a company got an initial prospecting right for a mineral, it became very easy for it to get mining and renewal rights.

Pushing for a modification of the licensing system, Cosatu said the objectives of the legislation should be translated into criteria for the awarding of rights."

Waverider: I had a lengthy discussion with Bob Chapman at the Gold conference this past week and as we know, he is not recommending investment in South Africa. He has lived in both SA and Zim and feels certain that the SA governments intention is to nationalize the mines. Could someone (preferably a poster from SA) indicate what this mining legislation means for the established mines, and explain how/why it is *not* a step towards nationalization. I know when we had some discussion about this previously, (a few weeks ago) a few SA posters felt fairly certain that there is no risk of nationalization, yet this legislation seems possibly to suggest otherwise. TIA.
(06/08/2002; 22:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77801)
Lind - Previous headline
I see that you need to click on "General News" on the left side to find the headline - this newsite used to have direct links to articles - that's changed I see!
(06/09/2002; 01:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77802)
@ Waverider : SA mine-nationalization......
The Golden Arch in SA has always been (will remain) under a form of monopolism (state and private as well). So are Chinese / Russian precious metals and why not even ABX, directly or indirectly controlled (plundered/protected) by state/power linked forces. And if you should go deeper into the nationalization realizes that states issue so many exclusivities (monopolies) to their supporters . Why should SA mines be an exception to this ?

SA mines have "ALWAYS" been functioning with the floating rand as their friend and savior (plundering tool). Dig up a long term (very LT) chart of the rand exchange rate and the conclusion is simple : Lower lows ad infinitum. The same for plundering in roubles / pesos / yuan-renmimbi.

Your question (fear) is about how "private" are giant companies and how "free" is free trade ? My most positive answer to this uncertainty is ...Physical Gold in one's own Possession ! 100 % immunity (Aristoteles) against a rand...rouble...yuan...AUS$...CND$...peso and against the last standing giant > The US$.

Lady Waverider, the Suid Afrikaanse Golden Arch will always remain "controversial" for the next 100 years of Gold to be extracted/mined. How much "risk" (against reward) is one ready to take against the safety/immunity of "The Product" ? Mine-speculation (holding) is betting on the insignificant amount of 2.500 yearly Gold, against 60.000 tonnes of monetary Refined Gold (145.000 tonnes minus jewelry). Hasn't the complete mining industry already nationalized itself with the forward sales of more than 1 year's production : 3.000 tonnes ? What if 400 tonnes of Sout African (Australian) underground Gold goes on an full strike...or a major mining accident in a major hedger, disrupts the forward sales contracts...or there suddenly isn't the amount of underground gold that has to be mined for delivery into the forward sales ? That could disrupt the finely tuned management (manipulation) of POG at a very critical moment and ignite that pile of paper after all, sooner than projected.

Goldmining or any other resource mining -policies are evolving with the future "value" projections/evolutions of the rersource itself. So, can you predict what will happen with a POG 600$/E or 6.000$/E in the US/SA/Russia/China or other mining places ? Same goes for POO 22$-E/28$-E or 50E/100E. And to what extend is oil nationalized or monopolized ? Oil wars AND Gold wars ! Armies and Taxes !

I have no clear cut answer on your question. And I doubt that South Africans can do better ? But I do concentrate on their product. Glad to see that some more people seem to change their mind on mining and Gold, as I did after CPM's education. Now, mineowners and workers should follow this same trail and take the future of their/our precious product into both strong hands and discard the old dogmas.
But it still seems so remote in deeds. The opportunistic plundering reflex is still alive and kicking. Higher risks for declining chances for reward.

We better connect Lady Leigh's dots (STINGS) and focus on the BIS / IMF struggle/plan. Better to work on our personal Gold standard (Ari) and follow the BIS outlined architecture as to get rid of the cacophony of the *floating* currency-affairs. Soon it will take 20 years for the whole mining industry to bring up as much as 30.000 tonnes of Official monetary Gold reserves. This 20 to 1 factor makes nationalized mining (SA or others) or not, a lot more "insignificant" than ever before.

Our whole thinking is dominated by the question (answers) of POG going to 600$ or 10.000$ and more. The sting or not the sting ? Further Floating exchange rates or rightout financial collapse ? Hyperinflation or devastating defaults with hyper-unemployment. Is there still a probability of a compromise between these two extremes ?

How can this ever rising tidal wave of trillions dollars debt, be countered with a ridiculous 600$-E/1.000$-E Gold dam ? The magnitude and the very nature of this *debt* terminator is constantly minimalized by all of us. Because 1,2 billion chineze workers (slaves) are servicing our false prosperity with lightspeed momentum. Make a world tour and experience the blatant discrepancy between "their" lifestyle (prosperity) and our's. A remake of the industrial revolution of 100/150 years ago.

Sorry for having mixed up mine-nationalization and the Sting. Hope it helps in making "choices". Good weekend, ladies (and gents of course).
(06/09/2002; 02:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 77803)
3.000 tonnes of underground gold....
3.000 tonnes of rock-embedded underground gold have been sold forward and still need to be mined for delivery !?
Is *all* this underground gold, proven to be there and minable at the cost calculated on the time of the forward sales ? Will minerworkers feel happy to continue mining this sold gold for the same salary, years from now ? Are major mine accidents a thing of the past ? With what money are forward sellers going to buy Spot Gold when deliveries should be delayed or POG rise should confront them with the realities of this mis-management ?

Not one single gram of these 3.000 tonnes will be purchased in the Gold spot market. They can't and will not. These 3.000 tonnes are at the mercy of the different Gold manager's "goodwill" and convenience.

Stopping the forward sales, as is supposedly done today, will make things worse. Profit decline is guaranteed !
There will be no margin call as long as Gold remains mined and delivered. Mining this Gold needs strict cost control (salaries) for years to come. This can only be achieved when mining is paid for with a faster depreciating currency ! Now, what happens when POG should rise further...? Mining currencies (costs) increase and the confetti received for the forward sales, declines in purchasing power !!! Interest rates rise and destroy the profits on the eventual holded bonds (?).

3.000 tonnes of underground gold risk not being able to be delivered or mined. 10.000/15.000 tonnes of leased CB gold is still in the vaults and will NOT / NEVER be delivered either.

WHO ORGANIZED THIS GOLD TRAP ??? Or does one still has to remain convinced that all this is "accidental" ? An unfortunate confluence of circumstances ? Common !
Greenspan, Eddy George, Hashimoto, The WA, Welteke, IMF statements, CB fata morgana sales ...etc, are minor eruptions of the underlying Gold volcano. So many different Gold players (respectable and less respectable)(sorry) position themselves in very different ways for the final outcome.

Any form of mine-nationalization (or variant) could be the result of a mine-Washington-Agreement, ment as a protection for the forward sales stupidity.

The handfull of Real Gold Accumulators are a pain in the...for many gold-parties. This pain will not increase with accumulation and price appreciation of goldmine-shares. But only with the hoarding of the intrinsic honest product itself. Refusing to do so is opportunistically agreeing with what is been done to Gold. Done by CBs false moves and goldproducers/bullion banks as well. Not preaching morality but simply exposing in-consequences that were also mine some time ago. Asians, Russians, Indians and Arabians are not speculating on underground gold. They accumulate the REAL MONEY. Us, westerners do need the Gold Education. The Real Gold Accumulators are not zapping on the net for Golden opportunities. We are the ones who don't act consequently and inderectly "allow" this Gold-Drama to happen. Mea maxima culpa !

If this big picture is correct and you agree upon can only conclude with the only consequent act of buying more and more Physical. 3.000 tonnes is 15 months mine production. Add 15 months of salary to your Physical personal Gold standard. Must be around 1 Kg on average.
1Kg multiplied the Dr. No or Hung Fat tactic (wise decision). Not that bad choice with almost zero interest rates and the unveiling rot in stock markets. Look at the 3 year $/E charts for Gold and see the evidence of the past performance. Extrapolate and compare with other investments.
As simple as that !
Black Blade
(06/09/2002; 03:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77804)
Bugged by gold: A simmering debate on the economics of gold has taken a turn

Once the source of the riches of kings, in recent years gold had ceded its spot as a financial hedge in troubled times to the mighty dollar and bubbling Nasdaq. Those championing gold were not the go-go traders on Wall Street but more like Mandela, partisans fighting a long, uphill battle to shine the spotlight on the precious metal.

As a corollary to the rise in gold, the dollar has fallen, losing 7 percent against the currencies of its major trading partners this year. The dollar index closed at 111.58 on Friday, still overvalued against other major currencies since 100 is considered par, but down from former highs of 120. ''We believe the gold price was very undervalued. The dollar is overvalued,'' said Cheryl Martin, vice president of North American investor relations for Gold Fields, which has headquarters in Johannesburg, South Africa.

But few dispute that the gold market has behaved abnormally for several years. Historically gold rises when interest rates go down, and vice versa. For seven years or so, it has dropped along with the Fed rates. The explanation given by many Wall Street analysts is that gold is a monetary relic and simply stopped being the haven worried investors ran to as protection against price inflation and political and economic uncertainty. The listless gold price became a tenet of the New Economy, which said that inflation was a problem of the past, and the strong dollar and rising stock market offered higher returns than a piece of metal better suited to jewelry.

Mining companies, faced with declining prices, sold future gold production on the forward market to hedge against a price drop. They used leased gold to make up the short fall, flooding the market and driving down the price further. But such hedging becomes risky when the market turns, as it appears to have now, and companies or banks are forced to buy gold at a higher price to fill contracts -- cover their shorts -- at a lower price. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reports that commercial banks and trusts held $63.3 billion in gold derivatives on their books as of Dec. 31, with two-thirds of this amount on the books at JP Morgan Chase.

Black Blade: Interesting article with a bit of emphasis on GATA. Makes some good points about the Gold markets and "strange" inexplicable price movements. Much of this has already been hashed out here, however, it is good to see Gold in a more positive posture in a "mainstream" publication.

Black Blade
(06/09/2002; 04:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77805)
Current gold rush defies accepted financial wisdom

NEW YORK -- Where are all the gold bugs? Gold prices are up 18 percent over last year, year to date, producing the best returns since 1987. Gold stocks are the best-performing group in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index is up 63 percent in 2002. Yet we've heard nary a peep from the gold bugs, that exclusive club of folks that ties every wiggle in the price of gold -- even if it's purely the result of decisions by central banks to buy or sell -- to a change in inflation or inflation expectations.

Black Blade: Another interesting article, but this time from the anti-gold crowd. They just don't get it. They would rather hold money losing stocks and other paper assets than hold onto gold while it is rallying higher. When Gold punches through $850 an ounce and the DOW is sitting at 5,000 - NASDAQ at 700, they will still be wondering what is happening while they fret over their vaporizing IRA's and 401K's. There used to be a time that investment managers would recommend a 5% or 10% holding in Gold. Now these knuckle-dragging managers stare with eyes glazed over stroking their sloped foreheads wondering "what's going on with Gold?" It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out.

Silver Tongue
(06/09/2002; 05:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77806)
Thanks guys for the great explanation for the rise in gold. Having suffered abuse from paper traders for the past 15 years it is nice to be right finally after all these years. Finally the gold squirreled away in my SD box has some luster along with my gold mutual funds. Its too bad, though, that my foresight is not as acute as my hindsight and I would not be sitting here with a lot of tech stocks which may well become my Charmin of the future.
(06/09/2002; 08:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77807)
belgum who organized this gold trap NOTE THE DATE!



Mr. Johnston's Letter to his Sons!
(The Sting & Ponzi Scheme!)

Mr. Johnston is a retired financial analyst in his eighties who has learned and lived
through times most of us only read about. A letter he had written to his sons was
provided to me by one of my Canadian business associates. I was so intrigued with
the letter I contacted Mr. Johnston and had a lengthy phone conversation with him on
this subject. Someone is always number one (currently the US) and there are many
who "wannabe" number one (the BIS) as outlined in his letter. It has a tinge of
"conspiracy" to the rationale but regardless, the underlying facts and scenario are
quite accurate in my opinion. Look back at my previous comments on "conspiracy"; it
makes no difference whether there is actually a "conspiracy" or not as the facts speak
for themselves.

* * * * * * * *

Houston, Texas
July 15, 1997

My Dear Sons:

This is about "The Sting". This is about the sting that will smash the Great Bull
Market. This is about the sting that will derail the gravy train. The sting is already in
place and its trigger has already been pulled. The sting merely has to unfold. The
public suspects nothing.

A sting is a confidence game in which the victim is deliberately set up to believe that
he cannot lose, that he has a bird's nest on the ground. Then at the last moment the
trap is sprung, and his dreams of riches turn to rags. This sting was made in Japan,
with a strong assist from Switzerland.

To get a better idea of the Swiss Connection, we have to look at the Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) in Basel. he BIS is the Central Bank's central bank. It
was formed in 1930 to handle the collection of German war debt following World War
I. Its members are the central banks of the industrial world, such as the Bank of
England, the German Bundesbank, the Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan,
and so on. It is almost certainly the most powerful financial institution in the world.
Never once in its long history has it ever had to ask for help from any government.

A definite coolness exists between the BIS and the United States. This goes back to
the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, held to set up the machinery for resuming
world business after World War II. Even though this conference established the
gold-backed U.S. dollar as the only reserve currency, the U.S. did everything it could
to torpedo the BIS and give sole power to the American sponsored International
Monetary Fund. The war was not over in 1944, but the combatants still got together
and defeated this U.S. grab. In the final showdown, the Europeans and Japan never
completely trusted the U.S.

As the years went by, the BIS suspicions were justified. The U.S. began to abuse its
reserve currency role by simply printing dollars. American companies began to buy
control of businesses all over the world. In 1971, President Nixon took the dollar off
the gold standard, and introduced the novel idea of floating currencies. Meanwhile,
the U.S. national debt began to increase each year, until it now stands at about $5.5
Trillion, an astronomic amount that can ever, ever be repaid. It was clear that the U.S.
was out of control.

Along about 1972, I began to spend a great deal of time and effort in studying the BIS
and its agenda. The first thing I found was that although the U.S. had turned its back
on gold, the BIS were aggressively buying it. By 1990, the BIS were by far the largest
holder of gold, with more than one billion ounces. This amounts to an outright corner
on gold.

The next thing I learned is that the BIS are extremely closemouthed. It keeps a low
profile. Its favorite M/O is the sneak attack. They have their own word for this �
"coup". Their ideal coup is one where the victim is taken by surprise, and does not
even know what hit him. The BIS tries to leave no fingerprints. Thus their coups often
become perfect crimes.

The third thing I learned was that the BIS had two ironclad objectives. Both were so
bold that they would take your breath away:

1) To destroy the Soviet Union, as a threat to world peace.
2) To destroy the dollar as the worlds reserve currency.

We all know that the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989. This was done by the BIS
without firing a shot. They simply loaned large sums of money to the Soviets, and then
called the loans. Just a routine castration! A simple foreclosure. This is how they got
the Russian gold.

The second goal, of bringing down the dollar as a reserve currency, has not yet been
reached, but I believe it soon will be. This brings us to the present sting operation.

If you are going to derail the dollar and the Great Bull Market, you better bring a pretty
big checkbook. The new money coming into the mutual funds is running about $20
billion a month. Unless you can top that kind of buying pressure, you don't have a
chance. How in the world do you shoot down an animal that big and that powerful? In
my opinion, the BIS and its Japanese partners have come up with an ingenious
answer. It is big enough to work. It goes like this:

The sting began two years ago, in August 1995, when a rash of bad loans and insider
scandals brought the Japanese banks to their knees. The BIS became alarmed, and
advised the Japanese to lower their loan rates to �%. This created an enormous gap
between the low Japanese rate and the 6-�% U.S. rate. Into this gap poured
speculators from Japan and everywhere else. The speculators would borrow yen in
huge amounts. They would then sell the yen, and put the proceeds into U.S. paper,
thus making an enormous, guaranteed return. This came to be known as the "Yen �
Carry Trade". This yen � carry trade has been going on for over two years, in virtually
unlimited volume. It created a huge demand for U.S. bonds, which in turn sustained a
huge and unprecedented bull market in stocks.

In a similar fashion, the Japanese and others found that they could do the same thing
with gold and this came to be known as the "Gold � Carry Trade". The speculators
could borrow gold at about 1%, sell the gold, and then invest the proceeds in U.S.
paper, with a huge guaranteed return. How delightful! How delicious! But how lethal!

I say lethal because this yen � carry, gold � carry Ponzi scheme has created a
"potential short squeeze of colossal magnitude". (Michael Belkin, "Strategic
Investments", May 14, 1997) Sooner or later, these fantastic leveraged schemes must
be unwound. The gold and the yen which were borrowed and sold short will have to
be bought back; and the bonds that were bought with borrowed money will have to be
sold. The totals involved are probably well over a trillion dollars, or far beyond the
mutual funds yearly take. Anything could trigger the debacle. As long as gold keeps
going down or the yen keeps going down, no problem. As long as bonds keep going
up, no problem. But once gold starts to rise, or the yen starts to rise; or once bonds
start to fall, these huge positions would be unwound. There would be a run for the
exits, and the panic would feed on itself. Margin calls would ruin the leveraged
speculator in short order. There would be no way to stop the carnage. All it will take is
a coup to start the waterfall.

We had the coup on June 24, 1997, though it was only vaguely understood at that
time. The Japanese Prime Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto, told a luncheon meeting at
Columbia University, "I hope the U.S. will engage in efforts and in cooperation
maintain exchange stability so we will not succumb to the temptation to sell off
Treasury bills and switch our funds to gold".

In a matter of minutes, the NYSE collapsed, and the Dow-Jones closed down 192
points in a mini-panic. The victim's saw the trap for the first time! Then the media and
Wall Street fell all over each other trying to control the damage, saying Hashimoto
was misquoted, etc., etc. The various exchanges staged a desperate anti-gold raid,
and soon had gold down to 12-year lows. The Street breathed a sigh of relief and
returned to its summertime siesta.

But the damage was done. Now look at the mess that confronts the big-time gamblers.
We now have gold at new lows and the bonds at new highs. Surely, this is a
speculator's dream come true � well, isn't it? No, this is The Sting. The yen � carry
and the gold � carry is still in place, and they still have to be unwound. The temptation
Hashimoto mentioned now becomes unbearable. The Japanese cannot resist the
chance to sell the bonds near their highs, or the chance to buy gold near its low. Do
you imagine that the bonds will stay high or that gold will stay low? No way! The
unwinding begins to feed on itself, and the 5000 mutual funds and all their friends will
be unable to do a single thing about it. That's what you mean by The Sting.

I have no idea whether Mr. Hashimoto was acting on his own, or whether his words
were part of a larger plan. I know one thing, though. This guy is no innocent babe in
the woods. Before he became the Prime Minister, he was Japan's Finance Minister.
He knew the ropes. He knew the big wheels at BIS. He knew all about yen � carry
and gold � carry. He was telling his people that the game was over. Remember that
these are the friendly little folks who gave us Pearl Harbor and the kamikaze! For just
a fleeting second there, when Hashimoto spoke, the thought flashed across my mind
that the Japs had just won World War II.

Another thought � the Japs could acquire gold in a different way. They could sell our
bonds and buy the EMU, the new European currency that the BIS are sponsoring to
replace the dollar. The EMU is expected to be a package combination of gold and

So there you have the anatomy of the greatest sting in history. It is real. It is in place. It
cannot be stopped. It can only feed on itself and get more and more desperate as the
shorts are squeezed to death. And best of all for the BIS, the fingerprints on it are not
Swiss � they are Japanese. Call this the "Karate Chop".

Think about this, and call me with your reactions. There is more to this story. Stay

Much love, Dad"

* * * * * * **

Mr. Johnston's letter was written last July. I don't want to be redundant but this is the
reason I have been telling you in the past that we are in the transition from intangible
financial assets to tangible real assets.

2658 Del Mar Heights Road, Suite 425, Del Mar, CA 92014
Subscriptions: 1 year (12 issues) $129, 1 year RSD Special Situations Hot Alert
Service $495 (includes mailed newsletter), International, add $25.
(800) 380-3043
(06/09/2002; 09:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77808)
One year of Gold in euro....
365 days goldprice in euro from 9.100 E to 11.100 E = + 20%
For holding the safiest of wealth storages ! This within a period where more and more paper-adorers start feeling some real burning pain in their fingers, trading/holding those promessing papers that were. Soon, Gold will be de-mystified by the media as a matter of urgency and excuse for running out of alternative promotional swingpeptalks.
Crashing stocks, forerunning index crashes and rising interest rates, blocking any escape to bonds not compensating anymore for crashing currency purchasing power. Whilst stocks, bonds and cash are agonizing...main stream media will be allowed to spill inkt on Gold.

When the last stock-bull realizes that all past, exhuberant, growth statistics were false and unsustainable if real. This process is on its way as expressed in the first stage of POG's rise. Another 4 cycles into Gold's rise are to be materialized. Gold kissed that 20 year decline, definitely * GOODBYE * with NOT a see you later !
Three (3) gigantic "FAN" resistance lines on the POG-20 years chart from that 1980 ATH of 850$ ! Any chartist or other artist, understands what such a picture means : KABOOM ! Yes TINA is back ! There Is No Alternative, but GOLD ! The coming POG explosion will be related to this past 20 year decline (fractional analyses). And this means that POG into the thousands must and shall be.
How much more forward sales or leasing (total of +/- 20.000 tonnes) can be done on the 60.000 tonnes of monetary Gold and 2.500 tonnes of mined Gold ? Who is going to risk more than 20%/30% of the total Physical into the wildiest paper circus ?? This in an environment of very low interest rates and an over(hyper)valuation of all other paper (stocks, bonds,cash) ! The world's economical emperor has no clothes. There is no prothese available anymore for this cripple. Gold will be the miraculous savior. Japan's situation and immobilism is evidence of this theory. They can't find a way to restart expansion even as a shadow of what was. And Japanese are far from being primitive on economical matters. Our western *prosperity* is cornered and this has to remain hidden at any cost. Enough falsification and hocuspocus creativity.

Global economical and financial management is on a "don't rock the boat" track, now. Interest rates and exchange rates plus stockmarket indexes are desperately holded quasi horizontal. Even the euro is (must be) co-operative with the dollar-block to gain as much time as possible to keep hope on a recovery/throughstart alive and possible. This is NOT going to work. DEBTLOAD is way too havy and suffocating within an almost zero growth.

My stocks, bonds and cash for the kingdom of GOLD !!! And I want the whole kingdom and not an idiotic 5% of it. Silly me !
(06/09/2002; 09:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77809)
Yes indeed Sir Steady.....
Please do re-print this Sting-letter a hundred times again !
It are the deepiest of historical insights ever published so easely understandable. The hart of the matter pointing to the *inevitability* of the nearby future. US$ incorporated on the brink of a well organized collapse. And we can keep on talking like this as long as "they" know that nobody listens or even pays any attention to such talkietalkie ! Lucky us. Gold into the thousands, sounds unreal enough for outsiders and the majority of insiders as well. Precisely as was the dotbomb syndrome. Argumenting about POG into the thousands has something indecent on it.
But a Dow at 36.000 (3xATH) *propaganda* was to be taken seriously and not suitable for any form of sarcasm/cynism.

Yes dear forumers a Dow Jones starting at 800 in 1980 could easely and justable evolve to a 40 multiple (36.000) !!! Do you remember the truckloads of evidence (and the book-bestseller) that was used ?
But when POG rises an infantile 20% from an historical ATL...Ahwwwww, what an unsustainable bubble ! Even the most ferventic gold-haters wouldn't dare to write down such a complete nonsense to mislead the public. What a shame.
Yes the general public is *infantilized* to its bones.
This organized misleading will backfire as a devastating boomerang . This officially sponsered all is well in lalaland, created the optimal environment for further falsifications by the once trusted entrepreneurs towards their public shareholders. The wwwnet was the vehicle (chain-letter) for those big mal-information campaign (lies). It ain't over yet ! And so is the present POG rise(tte).
Chris Powell
(06/09/2002; 10:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77810)
Sunday's Miami Herald reports at length on GATA and the gold price's Miami Herald reports at length on
GATA and the gold price:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
(06/09/2002; 10:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77811)
What my advisor says

My former financial advisor was appalled when he learned how large a percentage of my portfolio was in gold stocks/funds. He pointed out last week's sudden down-turn in the gold markets, and warned that I was likely to lose even more in coming weeks. He urged me to get back into the Dow and Nasdaq. What he says, I'm afraid, is typical of what's being told to average investors. Here's what he wrote. Can anyone help me poke holes in his arguments?:

"The recovery is not that far off for either the Dow or the Nasdaq. The manufacturing index has risen five months in a row now. Unemployment declined to an annualized 5.8 percent in May (typical long-term unemployment in the U.S. is about 6.0). Interest rates remain historically low. The real estate market continues to boom, fueled both by continuing consumer confidence and the lowest 30-year mortgage rates in 40 years. The Fed and the Administration have made it clear that they will do whatever it takes to support the economy and to encourage a recovery.
Everything is in place for a recovery. It's just taking longer than many had expected."

Max Rabbitz
(06/09/2002; 11:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77812)
The following sends shivers up my spine.....

"The Fed and the Administration have made it clear that they will do whatever it takes to support the economy and to encourage a recovery." Do they really think they have this power? They put our economy at the edge of cliff and now they are going to save it. Hold physical gold and watch the Greek Tragedy be revealed.

(06/09/2002; 11:02:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77813)
Is GOLD an *Investment* ?
Yes it is ! Investing in a part of the aboveground stash is doing business ** against ** fiat . The future, ever declining, new Gold (2.500 tonnes) added to the existing everlasting stash is less than a plus 2%. Confetti's global multiplication is at least 5 times more than the growth of refined precious. The coming FREE GOLD will constantly adjust in valuation against this never, ,never ending saga of confetti-printing or digital unit multiplication (virtual confetti).
A multiplication that ALWAYS (!!!!) will outrun the REAL production of goods and services versus amount of monopoly paper in the game. What should be named as Permanent Depreciation of all confetti ever to be invented.

So with Physical Gold in your portfolio, you are into the business of depreciating confetti (cyclic business). Much better than the all out paper vehicles of bonds (any bonds). Interest rates on debts will always be more than the growth of the total physical stash. The decline in new mined Gold will progressively be replaced by jewelry recycling (scrap) into investment-Gold (monetary Gold). This will happen soon after Gold has broken Free, voluntary released or not.

Gold Pools are not constructed/organized to survive for ever. Time is also a powerfull ally of Gold to break Free. Once broken Free, it will take a while before another attempt will be organized to do the capping once again.
Tangible properties (land/real estate and others) also adjust in price when excessive confetti growth is suspected. That's what makes these tangibles semi precious for their owners. And these adjustments in price also do behave strangely at given periods. So why should *investing* in Physical Gold be un-wise or even stupid ? It isn't ! Houses can be multiplicated and desintegrate. Land can be out of demand or demod�. But Gold never died and is UNIVERSAL ! Enterprises can disappear and become totally worthless, very fast. So let us think twice before discarding Gold as a very wise * Investment* ! Because it really is "the" ultimate investment for ever. Sorry for producing the x-th version of Gold's ABC. I just wanted to see the title ** GOLD INVESTMENT ** in a mainstream media headline (smile). GOLD = INVESTMENT !
(06/09/2002; 11:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77814)
steady - THE STING
While I agree with much of what is written and predicted to happen in the STING piece, please forgive me if I am a little skeptical about the author. The letter just doesn't sound like it's written by a man in his late 70's or 80's passing on enduring words of wisdom to his beloved sons. It sounds, to me, more like a newsletter author has added a "Dear Son" and a "Much love, Dad" to his monthly newsletter rant.

Sorry, nothing personal toward you, I just don't buy into the letter's provenance yet. Please convince me. If this is too far off topic, I will be glad to shut up.

(06/09/2002; 11:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77815)
Max Rabbitz

Yes, Max, his statement concerned me, too! I think his take is that the Fed, by printing/circulating more money and ignoring the rapid devaluation of the dollar, is protecting our interests. My take is that all the Fed is doing is helping gold appreciate in value. Does that resonate with you and others who post on this forum?
(06/09/2002; 11:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77816)
Jimbo's adviser !?
Where do "HISTORICALLY" *low* interest rates and mortgages go...??? Do they go lower than low and become negative. Will you get fiat on top of debt or mortgage ?
No dearest advisor...ATL interest rates can only go one way : UP !!!

Gvnmt doing everything to....blablahbla = PRINT MORE OF THE SAME !

Voila, Jimbo's advisor is a Dow = 36.000 type of usefull idiot (excuse me). Thanks Jimbo for updating us on the state of affairs in advisorland.
(06/09/2002; 11:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77817)
Short & Sweet. . . .
Jimbo. . .

An economic recovery is not necessarily predestined to ignite a stock market recovery. With price-earnings ratios still at drastic historical over-valuation, the economy would have to do hand-stands to reflect just the values already assigned key stocks.
In the 1970s while the economy intermittently recovered and went into recession, the stock market languished for the entirety of decade (just one example of many). The stock market and economic cycles travel on separate implulses not always related to each other. The "industry" is quite capable of issuing statistics nearly ad infinitum but those who prosper analyze those statistics in the context of the present situation. Investment analysis is both art and science. . . . .

Ask your stock salesman to get with the times. You both will do better.
Sierra Madre
(06/09/2002; 12:01:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77818)
Woody Allen on Investment Advisors:

"An Investment Advisor is one who tells you how to invest your money, until you don't have any left."

(06/09/2002; 12:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77819)
The Sum Of All Fears
Arafat threatens 'disastrous explosion'

Greetings All,
Yesteday my wife and I saw the movie "Sum of Fears" and if you change the players around a little and reading the above headline it wouldnt take much for a terrorist to set off a small nuke in Israel!

As far as the movie was concerned my main intent on going was for survival data, you know things like how those at ground zero handled the radition as well as those areas surrounding ground zero, but Hollywood didn't show that because they wouldn't know what to do in a real situation.

Have a good day,
Old Yeller
(06/09/2002; 12:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77820)
Love this chart
Although I think the trend line drawn off the '87 peak better reflects the Greenspan conquest of that pesky golden rival for #1 status.In '87,the inflation was successfully diverted into the RE markets,a lesson we're re-learning today.Looking back,it now seems as if this was the first significant muzzling of the POG by Mr. G.

In that case,the show's over at about $340 as I recall.

Tooth and nail time,folks.Anything's fair in the Gold Wars,the printing press operators will not go quietly into the night.
Max Rabbitz
(06/09/2002; 13:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77821)
Jimbo's Advisor, Part II
Doug Noland's weekly analysis has helped me understand the fragility of a very obtuse financial system. It's almost like the law. You have to be a lawyer to understand what they are talking about. I'm an entomologist, not an economist, but I can smell the rot from an overripe confidence game. I think a lot of financial advisors have too much at stake personally and emotionally to be able to step back and see the whole picture. They would have to re-examine everything and everyone they believed in. This is too much for most who are well past the vigor of youth.

Humans are funny creatures. I'm struck by the number of people who think that just voicing the possibility of a tragic event is enough to invoke it, like some mystical ritual. Don't even think it. Like whistling past a graveyard.

Today I ordered some KI and a radiation detector. Who knows, maybe we'll get a chance to live without Washington Bureaucrats soon.

Many modern systems are more fragile than in the past. For example, our agricultural system is now based on high yield genetics that tend to have little genetic variation. Some crops only have a few years life expectancy before some fungi, virus, or bacteria find a way to exploit it. The genetic diversity now resides in seed banks. Seeds from some hybrid crops do not retain parental characteristics, or are not viable. Insect pests are also constantly evolving (faster than us) to overcome pesticides. New pesticides are always needed. It is a constant battle with the forces of nature. Then there is the high oil/gas input needed for tilling, planting, harvesting, petrochemicals, and irrigation. Should the world tend towards chaos, for whatever reason, the critical infrastructure needed to maintain food production will decline. We take that is very fragile for granted. I feel like whistling with my fingers crossed.

(06/09/2002; 14:22:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77822)
Why Gold? safe haven!
(06/09/2002; 14:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77823)
Sorry, I'll try again this one works
(06/09/2002; 14:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77824)
Max Rabbitz
CuriousWould bugs like ants, roaches or grasshoppers with exoskeletons fare better in a radiated enviorment compare to amphibian/ reptile bunch.
Sort of looking for the canary in the coalmine.
Potassium Iodine and a rad counter. Hmmm.

Black Blade
(06/09/2002; 14:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77825)
Re: Jimbo

I have written extensively on this subject, so I will be rather brief here. We have always heard these brokers "put lipstick on this pig" time after time. They have stood by as Rome burned while their Gods Enron, Global Crossing, Nortel, JDS Uniphase, and many others were found out to be false Gods. These false prophets (brokers) have been lying to us � telling us to "buy this dips", all the while the masses lost over $5 Trillion � that's right! Over $5 Trillion � "gone to money heaven". They always tell us that it will get better � maybe this next quarter �.. well maybe the second half �� well maybe next year �.. well maybe ��. You get the picture. They are only interested in commissions and bonuses.

Just based on the ridiculous valuations on stocks and the poor earnings (actually the NASDAQ has negative earnings), the DOW should be valued below 5,000, the S&P at about 425, and the NASDAQ is anyone's guess right now (I would venture about 700 to 800 tops). Yeah, I know it sounds absurd, but look at how far these angels have fallen already and they are still overvalued. Many of these inflated valuations result from "cooking the books" ala Arthur Andersen and KPMG. They are based on everything from Pro Forma accounting to operating profits accounting to dubious write-offs using employee stock options to synthetic leasing. This is the ultimate fate of Wall Street � market crash! Corporate and consumer debt is at record levels. The Federal Reserve is correct when it tells us that debt is growing three times faster than the GDP! This is unsustainable no matter what fairy tale brokers wish to listen to. Most major US corporations are drowning in a sea of debt.

Oh yeah � the banks! They are set up to collapse in a major crisis as well. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that if these corporations can't make good on their debt, then the banks will have some serious problems as well. Remember the old saying: "If you owe the bank a few thousand then you're in trouble, if you owe the bank millions then the bank is in trouble". Well corporations owe $Trillions! Just look at all the headline grabbing bad deadbeat bank loans from Enron, Global Crossing, Xerox, etc. The banks are in so deep that they must keep on lending more to these corporations and they also much continue to tell their brokers to keep putting "lipstick on this pig". As an example, bankrupt steel maker LTV owed JP Morgan Chase over $600 Million, but when they were under water they asked the bank for another loan to the tune of about $250 Million. Yeah, you guessed it, they got the loan. The bank is desperate as corporation after corporation threatens to go under taking $Trillion down with it � money gone � "gone to money heaven".

A perfect storm of epic proportions is brewing. Remember the energy crises of the 1970's, the real estate bust of 1974, the bond market collapse of 1979-1980, the S&L crisis of the 1980's the Asian Contagion of 1997, the Russian Bond Default of 1998, the Tech Wreck of 2000, etc.? These crises destroyed the dreams and retirements of millions while brokers laughed all the way to the bank at our expense. Even worse all these economic nightmares of the past are reemerging and converging into the perfect storm and will soon crush anyone left tied up in Wall Street. To be sure there will be a few (very few) investments that will do very well, but most will watch their dreams and retirements vaporize. Even now we see devastated portfolios everywhere we look. Is it any wonder that the typical small investor is waiting on the sidelines and corporate insiders are selling off their own stock holdings as if they were afraid of contracting leprosy?

The unemployment picture is not all that rosy. Yes once the data is massaged for "seasonality", filtered and smoothed, the reality is that unemployment is actually rising. A glance at the BLS Report 861 and 864 are quite enlightening. Also, the methodology for calculation was revised in 1997 so that the real state of unemployment is as clear as mud. This was done for political reasons of course; much like the BLS changed the calculation of CPI and PPI with such bogus filters as "hedonic deflators", etc. This way the Social Security benefits can be held in check and to give the false appearance that the government has done a "good job" holding back inflation and managing the economy. Of course the BLS does not count those who have given up looking for work, don't qualify for benefits, who run out of benefits, etc. Many are simply living off of their stock investments � further hurting the stock markets. These unemployed will not be among the expected throngs who are supposed to keep spending to prop up the economy. Those that do are mortgaging their homes � yep, putting their own homes at risk in order to finance their spending habits.

This brings us to the real estate bubble. Yes, the value of homes has gone through the roof. How long can this go on, who will be left to buy and also, who has been buying and why? Those who have been buying, improving, and moving up in real estate are not investing in the stock markets. They are hoping to preserve some value in another hard asset � real estate. When that cash is spent and the new homes are sitting unoccupied then what? When there are no more buyers the real estate prices will tumble just like in 1974. This time many other factors are converging as well. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates and that will take a lot of air out of real estate. Oh yeah, corporate and business real estate. This is good � now commercial landlords are going begging to keep occupancy rates high enough to meet expenses. In Silicon Valley the bust left vacancy rates high. In Manhattan landlords are slashing rates and even offering to pay broker fees. The story is the same around much of the US. Of course this also means a major loss of business for the banks.

If there is to be an economic recovery much less a recovery in the DOW and NASDAQ, it will take a Herculean effort of the likes never seen in US history. There are just too many excesses left to wring out of the market. The feast is over and now come the famine. We are not alone either. The reason for the weakening US dollar and the sinking Yen is that there is a war, unlike Pearl Harbor, this war is beginning with the race to devalue currency in order to grab a piece of the shrinking global pie. In order to keep market share and keep some people working by exporting goods, some nations (the US and Japan in particular) are working to devalue their currencies so that their manufactured goods are cheap enough to compete in a dwindling market.

In short � you're broker can put as much lipstick on that pig as he wishes, it does not change the facts. These events are converging into a "Perfect Storm" of epic proportions. Get prepared as always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start up a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I would go into more detail, but gotta go to the gym, cheers!

- Black Blade
(06/09/2002; 15:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77826)
Short & Sweet. . . . who asked about tracking the "spot" price. . . .

The link above takes you to the INO gold quote (exchange generated). During the day (U.S. trading hours), the top of the page shows the Comex quote. Right now the active month (the month where trading volume is concentrated) is August. As you can see there is a 90� differential between the August and June prices. During trading hours tomorrow, if you subtract 90� from the August price tomorrow that will get you near the spot price. I say near the spot price because in the actual bullion market there is a bid ask spread based on this price. The differential from August to spot at the moment is roughly 90� but as we move closer to August, that differential will shorten progressively and in an orderly manner.

If you scroll further down the page, you will find the Acess market listings. The Access market is a relatively accurate reflection of what goes in bullion markets overnight because none of the traders in that market relish being caught asleep at the wheel and being "hit" with a trade that might take advantage of their inattention. So they carefully watch what's going on in Asia, Australia et al and reflect the action accordingly. In other words, when they bid or ask the market, they do so with Asian trading in mind.

As for INO quotes at the top of this page, these are quotes generated in the spot markets for gold along with the major currencies. They originate from a group of spot dealers trading amongst each other. I am not certain on this but I believe that the quote originates on the Reuters system. If you look now (3:30 MDT) you will see that the bullion desk and INO are carrying the same quote -- $324.80. That's because they subscribe to the same quote feed.

In recent months, when strange things were occurring in the gold market and much of that was originating from Asia, it seemed like the INO Spot Market quote led all others. It is a good idea to follow both systems in trying to judge the direction of the market.

There is a further complication in that all these prices are fifteen minutes delayed. We provide them as a service to our clientele. The spot price is elusive but what we offer here will keep you near the action if not in it.
(06/09/2002; 15:48:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77827)
Differential correction. . . .
Apologies. That differential between June and August is 80� not 90�.

One more point, the Kitco system is fraught with error. I know many like to watch the seemingly "active" graph, but we would not use Kitco pricing for our own trading purposes nor would we recommend differently to you.
(06/09/2002; 15:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 77828)
EagleOne, I mentioned yesterday that I posted a 1975 letter recently by the same gentleman. The copy I have (all old and musty from being in a filing cabinet for 27 years) actually has the writer's full name and work address (1975 version), and his name truly is Johnston. I don't know this man personally or anything about him, but I don't think he's running a scam.
(06/09/2002; 16:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77829)
Some more about the letter I posted: My father-in-law, who worked in an architectural office in Houston years ago, was given the letter by a goldbug in his office. It was convincing enough to motivate him to buy a few Kruggerands. Having those Kruggerands helped him tremendously a couple of years later when he was going through some financial trouble. So in a way our family is very much indebted to this Mr. Johnston, whoever he is! You certainly can't say that he gives bad advice.
(06/09/2002; 16:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77830)
Black Blade
Your 77825 is bang on.


"This is the ultimate fate of Wall Street � market crash! Corporate and consumer debt is at record levels. The Federal Reserve is correct when it tells us that debt is growing three times faster than the GDP! This is unsustainable no matter what fairy tale brokers wish to listen to."


I whole heartedly agree, I'm not quite sure why I totally agree but some 'greater' feeling tells me so.
(06/09/2002; 16:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77831)
Uh...... we go ....any anything..??...Good luck!!!
(06/09/2002; 16:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77832)
OK. Your support of the Johnson letter is good enough for me. I certainly do agree with his advise and hope that his message is heard and followed by all who chance to read it. Thanks for your kind reply.

(06/09/2002; 16:55:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77833)
Don Coxe's latest call.............this week is a BEAUTY!! view on gold....."wall street will publish seven stories announcing a demise on the gold rally, all at higher prices..."

(06/09/2002; 16:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77834)
....just checked....Greenspan gonna live forever....sorry!
(06/09/2002; 17:03:46 MDT - Msg ID: 77835)
Quick question on expiry dates
I'm a little confused. We had a Comex close on May 31 and I hear talk of another close next Friday.

Futures and options have different dates, yes? Can someone please explain.

(06/09/2002; 17:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 77836)
Gandalf, YGM
Thank you both for the welcome.

Your JLS info raised a smile - I still have my 1970s copy of the book, and was into Neil Diamond's music of the film as well, and loved them both. I live by the beach, and can look out at the gulls daily and envy their freedom.

I guess we are all seekers of one kind or another, but here the air is perhaps a bit more rarified!

Go well and go gold!
(06/09/2002; 17:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77837)
Welcome from Canada. I too am relatively new here without formal education in economics but I've learned so much from the knowledge, experience, and patience of everyone here. Couldn't resist when you mentioned the beach - I spent a year in Sydney near Coogie Beach, and 6 months as a diving guide on the GBR - out of Airlie Beach. Loved it, and desperately miss tropical it's a lot warmer in Oz than here in Canuck land! Cheers,
(06/09/2002; 17:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 77838)
Greenspan bubbling along from Doug Noland - Credit Bulleting wherein he quotes Greenspan & Co from recent 2002 International Monetary Conference

"Greenspan: "I'll speak for the United States. In the household sector, it is certainly true that debt as a ratio of disposable income has been rising quite considerably. "

To be sure, there is also the other side of that problem in which automobile leasing has taken on a fairly significant part of the American household consumption sector..
So, I do think that its difficult to read the degree of stress in the household sector, but there's a tendency, I think, to presume its much greater because some of the numbers do look pretty much outsized, until you look at the details and the combination of the increasing net equity of households plus the shift in forms in which activities take place suggests that while we are clearly in less flexible state than we were several years ago, we are nowhere near in a position where one can seriously state that debt constraints are going to materially restrict the growth rate."

Duisenberg: "All I can say is that given the degree that Alan is, may I call it, playing down the leverage and risks associated with it for the United States

Misetich's comments

Big Al plays down leverage and risks...uuhhm

Black Blade
(06/09/2002; 17:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 77839)
Re: Jimbo

Sorry for the disjointed response, however, I was running late. I had to beat the clock as the gym closes early on Sunday. I hope that quick off the cuff response hit some important points for you.

Now to run a get some Negra Modelo and start cooking up some "Pollo y Mol�". Cheers!

- Black Blade
(06/09/2002; 18:40:14 MDT - Msg ID: 77840)
Believing in the "STING".....
For any doubts to be erased as to whether or not such a "Conspiracy" as the "Sting" could be or would be orchestrated one only need read "None Dare Call it Conspiracy" by Gary Allen/Larry Abraham...IMHO this book should be in every high school in the land and in every home library.....The yoke of Socialism is creeping in on millions of unsuspecting citizens of Canada and the USA and this book still has not yet reached nearly enough people.
The Creatures of Jeckyl Island are busy yet as are the minions of the CFR, NWO and Bilderbergers. Fiat money and Gold are part and parcel of the tool chest they rely on to forment the changes they desire....If only more people would take a pro-active approach, the tide can be turned....YGM
(06/09/2002; 18:48:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77841)
Gary Allen Interview Re: Trilateralists

WHILE majoring in history at Stanford University, Gary Allen became involved in "power-structure research" on the U.S. banking and corporate elites and their roles in shaping the course of U.S. political and economic policies during this century. Over the last 20 years he has become the leading authority on secretive Establishment organizations including the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission. Mr. Allen's commentaries appear regularly in American Opinion magazine, of which he is a contributing editor. His nine books include None Dare Call It Conspiracy, with more than five million copies in print . . ..
Q. Mr. Allen, you have been investigating and writing about the U.S. financial, industrial, and political elite for nearly 20 years. In examining the inner circles of economic power in America, particularly the Trilateral Commission and the much older Council on Foreign Relations, you were pretty much alone until recently. Then, starting with the close of Jimmy Carter's first year as President, a number of articles began appearing in mass-circulation magazines raising serious questions about this elite and its interest groups. Recently a mass news magazine noted that George Bush's membership in the Trilateral Commission may disqualify him in the eyes of most rank and file Republicans. How did this change in the public's awareness of the Trilateral Commission come about?

A. It has been the result of a slow and careful education process. We did the research and laid the groundwork and waited. As we did so, Jimmy Carter appointed a score or so of Trilateralists to the top posts in his Administration. To deny the authority of our analysis, which had predicted this, became more and more difficult. It couldn't be ignored. Those who tried to do so looked like Jimmy Durante trying to steal a circus elephant, getting caught, and responding: 'What elephant?"

In short: The situation became too obvious to ignore and people ran out of rationalizations.

Q. How did you become involved in investigating the Trilateral group?

A. My interest in power-structure research dates back long before David Rockefeller organized the Trilateral Commission in 1972. Its immediate antecedents are the Council on Foreign Relations (C.F.R.) and the Bilderbergers. The former is a secretive group of American-based bankers, academics, and industrialists that has controlled U.S. foreign policy since Franklin Roosevelt. The latter, equally exclusive and secretive, is composed of top United States and European bankers and corporate and political leaders. The Council on Foreign Relations has been run from New York since its founding after World War I. The Bilderbergers have been secretly meeting annually at plush international spas for the past 28 years to coordinate economic, commercial, and political policies.

The first of the post-war writers to examine the Council on Foreign Relations and the policies it advocated, promoted, and eventually turned into official U.S. policy was Dan Smoot, who published The Invisible Government in 1963. This important book was essentially a reference manual on the structure of the C.F.R., listing its membership, its satellite organizations, and its goals.

The next major breakthrough was developed by Don Bell, who had been publishing a newsletter for 27 years on secret arrangements and agreements made by the international banking community. Bell obtained and excerpted sections of Professor Carroll Quigley's 1,450-page Tragedy And Hope, a history of the first half of the Twentieth Century. Less than 100 pages in that book deal with international banking, but they proved to be dynamite

Cont'd....@ Link
(06/09/2002; 18:51:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77842)
...we're connected....member Jake...GoArmy.....Curious?...I do and I miss them.....YGM....."Like a Rock".
R Powell
(06/09/2002; 18:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77843)
Canuck// Paper investing expiration dates
The Comex close on May 31st pertains to the June futures positions which must be offset or arrangments made for delivering or receiving physical gold. Certificates of metal in Comex storage may change ownership or actual deliveries may be made. Offsetting simply closes out the positions with fiat profit or loss duely recorded on traders' accounts.
The close you mentioned coming this Friday is the monthly close on options. This happens every second Friday. The July options expire this Friday. Options for each month expire on the 2nd Friday of the month before so July's options expire this coming (2nd Friday) of June. These must be offset for cash or excercised. So, a July 300 call will pay $1.00 for every dollar POG is over $300/ounce but one contract = 100 ounces so the $300 call will pay $100 for every dollar over 300 Comex gold closes on this coming Friday. Exercised means converted into the July future position, purchased at $300/ounce which is the right of the option's owner. At this time the option owner becomes a future position owner and has to have the required margin (money) to hold the position. Futures positions can be held with some margin which is subject to change at the discretion (whim?) of the exchange. The balance is due for those choosing delivery of a futures position, whether as a certificate or physical pickup.
Approximately 98-99% of all futures positions in metals are offset for a cash loss or gain. It's a big casino game with players gambling on their opinions of whether prices are going up or down. I believe research can change the odds into the trader's favor but even then good entry and exit points must be accomplished and good money management is essential. With these, gambling odds increase into investing or speculating probabilities.
Warning, after many years I'm still (and forever will be) learning the game. Unlike chess, mistakes here cost money and the game is dangerous. Physical in hand will increase on a dollar to dollar (one to one) ratio. Paper investments are geared or leveraged so that a few hundred dollars may become many thousands in a short time or the few hundreds many be entirely lost.
Hope this clears up some of the expiration dates confusion.
(06/09/2002; 19:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77844)
Was away for a while.....Coastal Carolina....
...amazing! nauseum....gonna end soon...why are there so many Mutual Funds listed?.....Turn out da lights...da party's over it seems dat all good things must end...nyuck!...nyuck!
(06/09/2002; 19:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77845)
S&P: Lighten Up on Stocks & Poor says investors should trim the equity portion of their portfolios -- and boost cash holdings

Ed Note: They should advise gold purchase


The committee believes that the market will be pressured lower by concerns over global tensions, potential domestic terrorism, the weakening U.S. dollar, slowing economic growth, executive indictments, and an historically unfavorable seasonal period for stocks.

In addition, equity valuations remain unjustifiably high. In the 1990s, lofty stock prices were justified by the benefits of the peace dividend, accelerating earnings growth rates, a U.S. budget surplus, and declining long-term interest rates

Misetich comments
Is it the chicken or the egg? Falling US $ driving the market down or the otherway around
Regardless the Blackblade "bone pile" will inevitably get more additions.

Got gold?
(06/09/2002; 19:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77846)
Arthur Anderson are not alone - Ernst & Young and now Deloitte Touche yesterday, the directors had decided that Deloitte's knowledge of questionable accounting practices between Adelphia and the family-controlled entities, and its failure to understand them or disclose them was unacceptable.

Adelphia disclosed in March that it had guaranteed $2.3 billion in loans to the entities, and since then a wide number of undisclosed related party transactions between Adelphia and the family entities have been uncovered.

People briefed on the situation said that the company had been reluctant to dismiss its accountants, because of the time it would take another auditor to become familiar with Adelphia's complex and possibly fraudulent financial statements. However, the directors have been meeting with alternative auditors and expect to name one no later than today. A Deloitte & Touche spokeswoman did not return phone calls yesterday.

Misetich comments

How many more corporations have cooked their books?

Got gold?

(06/09/2002; 19:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77848)
NWO Conspiracy Pages... New World Order, it's slowly becoming a reality, and people can only speculate as to who's behind it. Some say the mysterious Illuminati, while others insist it's the Freemasons, and others say the Mafia, yet others say it's the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) or even the Trilateral commission. But the true culprits still remain nameless.

One thing is certain, the world is being shaped by an elite group, and the masses are being lied to. Here's a few people's thoughts on who's behind it all.
(06/09/2002; 20:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77849)
Glod..... slowly sinking to the price of a pound of cow manure. Hey want it you got it!
(06/09/2002; 20:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77850)
Re: Black Blade

Great answer, Black Blade. Thank you! By the way, hope you enjoyed your workout.
(06/09/2002; 20:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77851)
deloitte and...
toushay!!....anudder disaster in the making!!!
(06/09/2002; 21:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77852)
From USAGOLD Live News, Moscow Times, and Reuters"Strong Dollar Days Coming To An End?" Mentions many very specific, historic and projected price resistance points for US dollar, rising Euro, and more.
(06/09/2002; 21:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77853)
Belgian, thank you for your response - somehow I know now that I can rely on what your forthcoming advice will be, and I do attribute it the highest respect. Ultimately, getting physical exclusively makes imminent sense. But I also have an appetite for living on the edge and for hair-splitting risk - and to be honest...I really *like* multiplying my fiat! My concern (not fear) re: SA comes from recent news items, and from advice such as Bob Chapman's, whose opinion I also have a great deal of respect for. One can only obtain as much information as possible and make a guestimate at probabilities - a rather inexact science to say the least when it comes to the Gold market. Thank you for your thoughts and I shall give them weighted consideration! BTW - I'm in Zurich in July - you may still owe me a beer! Cheers,
(06/09/2002; 22:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77854)
Tough times ahead for stock markets
"International stock market traders are preparing for a gloomy week. Their sentiments are weighed down by heightened concerns about the health of some of the world's largest companies, and by growing scepticism about the sustainability of an economic recovery."

Waverider: Interesting...I had to look at the headline twice! Could they finally be suffering a dose of "reality check"?
(06/09/2002; 23:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77855)
Is it time to unload gold stocks?
"The share prices of North American gold mining companies today look like the dot-coms of yesterday, according to one veteran investment fund manager...It can't be wrong to take profits and raise some cash, can it? Things can't stay this ugly for the U.S. economy and stock markets, can they? Terrorist fears and political crises are bound to cool off, won't they?

But selling now could be a mistake.

"You will know it's time to sell when you see a plug for gold on the front cover of Time magazine or the Economist," said Douglas Pollitt, a mining analyst for Pollitt & Co. Inc., a Toronto investment dealer. "We're nowhere near there." "People are waiting for a big pull-back, but I don't think they're going to get it," he said. "We haven't really started to see the impact of low gold prices on production."

Analysts expect the price of gold will continue to rise as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and investment demand increases because of political fears and worries about the performance of the U.S. stock markets. At the same time, gold supply from mine production is expected to decline and that will be exaggerated because of the decisions being made by many gold mining companies to cut back on their gold hedge positions, further constraining supply."

Waverider: An interesting and balanced article...again a suprise from the mainstream media - not what I was expecting judging from the headline!
(06/10/2002; 00:43:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77856)
Yep, I surely own you, actually 5 beers ! That was your multiplication with that specific paper, wasn't it ? Sure it is beer, not champagne that is more appropiate for celebration of such a big clappediclap ?
Lucky you. OK give me a signal when y're in Zurich !
(06/10/2002; 01:28:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77857)
Golden Parachute"There may be only one type of job in which somebody can commit a felony and, after being fired as a result, still receive a severance package worth many years of salary. The job is chief executive of a large corporation..."

How many times have we seen this- take Enron for example. How many charges have been brought?
(06/10/2002; 01:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 77858)
The phantom of U.S. consumer confidence"...a growing number of researchers and economists say consumer confidence may be a phantom concept..."

As long as you shovel easy money into sheeple's pockets, they will say "thanks mate" and run to the shopping centre, the mall, the car dealer... easy come, easy go.

The deluge of pre-approved loans and credit card offerings seen today would have been unthinkable in a previous generation closer to the hard times following the depression and war.

Today's mortgage providers are happy to provide financing up to and beyond the value of a property. Some mortgage providing entities also have a perceived "phantom government backing" that does not exist in reality. Are they too big to fail?

It's easy to be "confident" and pile up easy debt money when interest rates have been pushed down- yet the gain in GDP obtained from the rate cuts has been paltry.

It's less easy to be confident, when you are one of the recently redundant. And the bone pile grows...

The dollar weakness may be the turning point [followed by rate rises to retain holders of dollar denominated interest paying assets] at which debt repayment begins to sap the will to spend easy money- you can't take on new loans if your disposable income is suddenly eaten up by increased interest repayments on your existing ones.

Perhaps sheeple may choose to release the equity in their appreciating property by selling down- which could have an interesting effect on the property markets to say the least, as sheeple tend to move in herds.
(06/10/2002; 01:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 77859)
HEADLINE: Indonesian Rupiah Rises on Speculation of Central Bank Buying, June 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Indonesian rupiah, Asia's best-performer this year, rose on speculation the central bank bought the currency to prevent it from falling too fast on investor concern a scrapped asset sale will slow a recovery.

...The rupiah climbed 0.5 percent to 8,850 against the U.S. dollar, bringing gains to more than 17 percent this year, after state banks bought the currency at the behest of the central bank, traders said.

-------(click URL for full text)----------

Sailing on a different tack than Japan. Indonesia discovers a "politically correct" explanation/excuse to dishoard foreign exchange paper (dollars)? A bet I would take.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 02:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77860)
'Overpriced' homes become debt traps

Some experts are raising warning flags about housing values. Their advice: Don't bank on your house continuing to rise in value. Depending on where you live, it may be overpriced already. Consumers should approach low-cost home loans and lines of credit with caution, credit counselors say. Although they can help lower monthly payments if used judiciously, those tempting offers can also lead to more burdensome mortgage debt. And unfortunately, an increasing number of Americans appear to be taking on larger and larger amounts.

"There are a lot of markets that are in a housing bubble," says Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor in Wellesley, Mass. Mr. Winzer tracks the relationship of income to housing prices in 120 local markets. And right now, he says, 45 percent of them are overpriced -- a record. "People right now apparently are willing to go into debt more than ever to buy a house and other stuff," he adds. Among his top overpriced markets: Boston, San Diego, Detroit, and Denver. In a recent report, Ian Morris of HSBC Securities in New York warned that housing prices had reached new highs. For every dollar of disposable personal income in the United States, there's $1.62 worth of residential real estate. The disparity hasn't been that wide in at least 50 years, Mr. Morris warns.

Black Blade: The housing bubble could be next to burst. Strangely many are willingly going into debt using risking their homes -- that's insane. People could even find themselves owing more than their house is worth.

(06/10/2002; 02:23:08 MDT - Msg ID: 77861)
HEADLINE: Dollar gains vs yen; BOJ provides firm floor Indonesia, Japan continues to prop up the dollar.


TOKYO, June 10 (Reuters) - The dollar posted modest gains against the yen on Monday morning with traders saying Japan's repeated yen-selling intervention over the past few weeks had proved effective in sealing a firm floor for the U.S. currency.

"The dollar managed to stay above 124 yen, even when it was being sold overnight," said Shogo Nagaya, foreign exchange manager at Nomura Trust and Banking.

...Traders estimate the Bank of Japan spent well over two trillion yen ($16 billion) in the four days that it entered the market over the past few weeks when the dollar slipped below 124 yen.

...The U.S. currency also made some headway against the euro on position adjustment. "Many were long on the euro so they may be cutting back such positions. But the move is purely technical and expected to have little effect in the long run," another Japanese city back dealer said.

Traders said the dollar remains under pressure against the euro, with some saying they even expected the single currency to jump as high as 96.00 cents during the week...

----------(click URL for full text)--------

Intervention by central banks acting alone can be merely a guise for portfolio adjustments, or it can be for supporting a show of political alignment. Against the trend of market forces, however, most central bankers already concede the ultimate futility of such efforts to affect exchange rates outside the immediate term.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 02:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77862)
Gold: The Glitter Is Back

Investors turn to gold...

Traditionally, gold has been seen as a hedge against inflation. The logic is straightforward. Inflation raises the opportunity cost of holding money in the bank, raises the expected rate of return on financial assets and, thus, marks down the value of financial assets.

Thus, during times of high inflation, investors and households turn to real assets, such as gold and property. This also makes it clear as to why gold prices were generally in a downward trend over the last two decades (1981-2000). Central bankers in the industrialised world set out to conquer inflation and largely succeeded in their mission. Long-term interest rates fell. Expected rates of return on financial assets dropped.

Black Blade: The article doesn't cover much about gold but does give a litany of reasons why investors are not happy with paper investments these days.

(06/10/2002; 02:56:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77863)
Don't let the "scary" headline fool you. This is a good article on the whole. overview of India's participation in the physical gold market. But human behavior being what it is, take all analyst conclusions with a grain of salt... go with your gut.

Imports during the first half of the year are expected to fall. Primarily because India is a price sensitive market.

...Consumer demand ... fell by 10 per cent in the first quarter at 749.5 tonnes. Investment demand was higher at 125.6 tonnes, by 36 per cent while jewellery demand fell by 15 per cent to 623.9 tonnes.

...The primary reason for this fall, says the survey, is the sharp rise in the gold prices in February 2002, which lead to the fall in consumption.

...Indian gold market is set apart from the gold markets of the rest of the world primary differential characteristic being --"taxes". In India, the custom's duty tax slaps on $15.86 (Rs 25 per gm) per ounce of gold. Another 1%, is then levied by the authorised agencies and banks, which sells the gold to the bullion merchants. Thus Indian gold is one of the highest priced in the world.

When the price of gold increases, India stays out of the market until local dealer stocks are depleted and dishoarding comes in to fill the gap. Once the dishoarding falls off, demand once again warrants going back into world markets and paying the added premium of import and agency fees.

...The pattern seems to be that gold spikes up, leaving a gap between Indian prices and world gold prices. Gold then slips back a bit and just like clockwork, Indian prices rise to meet the legal import level. No sooner do the two levels meet and almost instantaneously, gold powers up, moving out of reach of Indian consumption once again.

...This is ... due to the increased level of demand outside the Indian market that is keeping world gold prices higher and new gold imports just out of reach.

...The new players on the demand side, the producers, the Japanese, the Germans and new investment demand, etc., all want gold to meet their needs. The problem is that there is not enough gold to fill their baskets and the baskets of the Indians too.

Undoubtedly, there must be winners and losers in the mix. The winners of course, will be determined by who was willing to pay the higher price. And India for sure knows that it can wait for the right time given the gold accumulated over the years, traders said.

---------(click URL for full text)----------

Recommended reading. What is your place in the world of gold investors?

As far as the phrase "food for thought" can be taken literally, that last paragraph is the equivalent of a Thanksgiving Day Feast.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 03:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 77864)
World Cup

And it is: USA 1 S. Korea 1, a tie.
Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 03:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 77865)
Police Steal Panners' Gold -- The "Barbarous Relic" Files

Four West Nicholson (Zimbabwe) policemen allegedly mounted illegal raids at the Valley Mine gold mining camps and converted to their personal use, 40 bags of gold ore left by fleeing panners.

Black Blade: How they find time between killing white farmers and beating members of the opposition MDC is beyond me. And all for a "barbarous relic". To "protect and Serve". Hmmm...

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 04:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 77866)
US Still Faces Less Supply, More Demand for Natural Gas

Reports that weather-adjusted US demand for natural gas declined by 5-10 bcfd as prices recently climbed above $3.50/Mcf "don't pass the smell test," said a Houston-based financial analyst with a reputation for being bullish on that market. J. Marshall Adkins, with Raymond James & Associates Inc. of St. Petersburg, Fla., claims such reports are based on 11 questionable data" about US gas storage and incorrect methodology of analysis.

"Many analysts are incorrectly using annual linear regression models to correlate shoulder month degree days with injections," he said. "Most are assuming that the weekly storage numbers [for the period in April when responsibility for reporting storage was transferred from the American Gas Association to the US Energy Information Administration] are correct." "In other words, we believe that the historical data support our thesis that there is at least 2 bcfd less natural gas supply in the system and 3 bcfd more natural gas demand than last year."

Adkins predicts that injections of gas into US storage will be reduced to a weekly average of 65-75 bcf over the next 6 weeks. "Then it should be more than evident to everyone that there has, in fact, been no demand deterioration and that US natural gas supply-demand is much tighter than it was during this time last year," he said."

Black Blade: In short, the rosy data so far may be flawed and the true picture is much worse. I have noticed that injection data has been somewhat flat recently during a period when rates are expected to climb. We could easily see a new energy crisis developing by late this year or early next year. The reserves are not being replaced either. In my conversations with some people in the business, it is becoming common knowledge that decline rates have accelerated by as much as 29% in many nonconventional natural gas fields in the western states (8% of national supply). This has been completely overlooked so far by petroleum analysts. The long touted economic recovery is as good as on ice.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 04:55:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77867)
USD Gives Up Gains - Falls Lower
The US Dollar falls below 111 after having made gains overseas against major currencies. This morning some analysts reported that they expect the US Dollar to fall further while the Euro is expected to gain to 96 cents in short order. The Japanese government intervention last night appears to have fallen short while the Yen is now gaining on the US Dollar. Quite a "flip-flop" in the currency markets so far. Even the Rand reversed trend this morning to about R9.90 to the US dollar. However, Gold is still lower after TOCOM selling last night.

- Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 05:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77868)
Here I go again , Hydrogen gassing on about unit velocity.
And to carry on from msg 77762 I brought two small bags of rough NZ greenstone Nephrite/Jade ( illegal to export and so they say, therefore worthless internationally ) from a mate in the South Island with that cash and promptly sold that off to school friends and ended up with two oz of NZ/AU approxiamately 3 weeks later :). Until the students got wind and or realised that they couldn't flog it off
even way under par to the jewelers that were peddling it
off to the adult public, dispite the quality comparison.
Friends I often envisage some poor blighter in India
pounding away on an ounce of Au on goats skin from sun up to sun down by hand in order to get the standard micron
spread to make the 25 sheets 3 and half inches square
24 carat book that is sold for some 15.00 and consumately sold again for 50.00 in Aussie.
OK so if there are any mathematicians among us, you tell me whose making the bigger profit.
Immmmm solar panel 25.00, would it be cheaper in the long run to raise the temperature of one kilogram of H20 one degree centigrade in the long run rather the oxidizing the human body ?. Oh WTO rules :).
Hehe I used to frequent the pre and primary school students through church and pass on these sheets for free
and dispite the hidden msg , would watch their learning experience as it dissapeard in their hands . WOW !!
barnacle bill
(06/10/2002; 05:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77869)
YGM re:#77848
NWO ConspiracyThe names you mention are all arms of the same octopus.IMHO.
(06/10/2002; 06:29:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77870)
@ R. Powell
Thank you Sir.

So futures close the last day of the month and options expire on the second Friday of each month. Are there any exceptions?

I'm trying to get a feel for the paper expirations and 'spot' and thus to mining stock. It seems to me that the '325/328/330 line' is being defended quite sucessfully at this point. Once options expire I feel that we may head higher.

I mentioned in a previous message that the risk/reward factor was too great for me beyond unhedged mining shares. I hope you saw Hamilton's essay a couple weeks ago; the 'pyramid of gold investing'. Leverage is such a wonderful/dangerous thing isn't it?

Thanks again for the info, good luck with your 'bets'.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 06:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77871)
GE Default Insurance Soars as Banks Rush to Hedge Bonds, Loans∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APQQuTBWFR0UgRGVm

New York, June 10 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co.'s efforts to restructure its $241 billion debt are fueling demand for insurance to protect lenders in case of a default. GE has its detractors. Investors, including Pimco's Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, have raised concern about GE debt. Gross' firm sold its $1 billion of GE commercial paper because he said GE's debt level was ``extreme.''

Black Blade: GE's debt risk has increased. This large conglomerate has been hammerd by none other than bond king Bill Gross who questions the quality of the corporations debt.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 06:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 77872)
Decline and Fall of the U.S. Dollar

While few economists predict the U.S. dollar is in any danger of losing its cachet as the world's reserve currency, the fact is history is littered with currencies that have attained cult status only to be unceremoniously dethroned.

In one of the more lighthearted and interesting reports in the glut of research that has been published on the greenback in recent weeks, Paul Donovan, senior economist at UBS Warburg in London, argues there are discernable threads that link each currency's eventual retreat -- the kind of current account deficit that now blights the United States and trade disputes being the most glaring.

Black Blade: The point is that all currencies eventually fail -- except gold that is.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 06:57:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77873)
The Erosion Of Confidence
Risk and uncertainty looms large in today's economy


June 17 issue � A decade ago, the idea that Japan might default on its government debt was a crackpot notion. Since World War II, no major industrial country had repudiated any of its debt, and Japan�the world's second largest economy and a technological leader�seemed the least likely candidate to do so. No more. All the bond-rating agencies have downgraded Japan's debt; recently, Moody's lowered its ratings several notches. The odds of default are rising.

Black Blade: The last I heard, Japanese debt was on par with Latvia. "Interesting" end to the world's second largest economy. No wonder the Japanese government is scuttling the Yen.

Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 07:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 77874)
Shanghai Gold Exchange ''most likely'' to open in June

The Shanghai Gold Exchange is most likely to be opened in June, following ongoing delays due to drawn out discussions over a tax issue, a source at the exchange told Platts Monday. The source said: "There's still no firm date set for the official launch, but it is very likely to happen later this month. The longer than expected time needed is mainly because of the lengthy and detailed considerations over the value-added tax issue on gold transactions, as more time is required to discuss the details with the State Administration of Taxation of China and the People's Bank of China." The government has proposed a 17% value-added tax on gold transactions to increase its revenues. The exchange was originally scheduled to open in early 2002.

Black Blade: A 17% VAT sounds a bit steep to me. Hopefully that will not scare off many potential investors. Still, it should do well as Chinese trade Renimbi for Gold.
Max Rabbitz
(06/10/2002; 07:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77875)
Slingshot, regarding your 77824 yesterday to be so late responding. I lost Internet access last night so spent some time reading the updated "Nuclear War Survival Skills" by Cresson H. Kearny. This is an excellent and very readable book that is also found on the internet (above).

The exoskeletons of insects would provide no protection to high energy gamma radiation, similar to X-rays, only perhaps to Alpha particles. Alpha is not the problem. Your skin stops most. Only a large mass like lead or several feet of soil can block gamma radiation from fallout. Amphibians may be more sensitive to chemical pollution but not gamma rays. In fact, if they are under several feet of water or buried deep in mud they may do better. Insects survive because of their fantastic reproductive rate. A few always survive by chance and large numbers provide ample opportunity for new mutations. It is expected that large numbers of carrion flys will be present several weeks to months after a major attack. Better put some insect repellent and netting in those survival supplies.

If you are looking for a canary look to yourself. The initial symptoms (50 Rads) are nausea, vomiting, headache, dizziness, and a general feeling of illness. However, some of these symptoms can also be induced by emotional stress. You can make an accurate radiation meter at home (Appendix C) for little cost. I'm working on this. The problem with buying the old Civil Defense meters is that they need to be calibrated. The homemade device can be used to calibrate them. Yesterday, for my canary, I bought a geiger type meter of pocket size that measures up to 1 Rad per hour. This is a relatively low dose. A 350 Rad total exposure gives a 50% chance of being lethal. The human body can repair an amazing amount of damage if given a chance.

Also, I remember a Professor of Radionucleonics (not an MD) telling me some years ago another method of protection against ionizing radiation. Alcohol. A large amount of alcohol consumed internally. Sops up free radicals or something like that. I don't think you'll find that in Kearny's book.

Hoping for the best
Preparing for whatever
(06/10/2002; 08:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77876)
For all you Rukeyser fans
Louis Rukeyser's June newsletter carries a front-page story that asks "Given all the problems overhanging more-conventional investments right now, one might wonder why gold hasn't done much better in such a made-to-order morass." Rukeyser doesn't exactly put down gold as an investment; rather, he points out that "Gold has simply not been a rewarding holding in recent decades...." (Ironically, he admits he bought gold in 1982 for $298/oz, then sold it two years later for $550!)

But I've asked myself the same question: What's holding back gold's rapid growth as an investment? We've broken through several resistance levels this year, that's for sure. But my impression is that it's getting tougher each time, and that $330 presents a formidable challenge. Some of you have said, in so many words, that it's a good thing gold's advances haven't progressed too quickly. If it had, you've said, it could be counter-productive.

Anyone think gold is moving along at the "right" pace? Or is Rukeyser's question regarding why gold hasn't done much better a valid one?
(06/10/2002; 08:20:11 MDT - Msg ID: 77877)
Gold's doing just fine.
Cavan Man
(06/10/2002; 08:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77878)
Buy as much as you can understand whether 5 or 50 percent.
(06/10/2002; 08:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77880)
Jimbo. Nothing goes straight up.
Front month gold at about $310 would be healthy. More normal market with a solid base and a good place to start the next leg to higher gold.
(06/10/2002; 08:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77881)
The Japanese Problem...Cabal's Effectiveness The Erosion Of Confidence
Risk and uncertainty looms large in today's economy
June 17 issue � A decade ago, the idea that Japan might default on its government debt was a crackpot notion. Since World War II, no major industrial country had repudiated any of its debt, and Japan�the world's second largest economy and a technological leader�seemed the least likely candidate to do so. No more. All the bond-rating agencies have downgraded Japan's debt; recently, Moody's lowered its ratings several notches. The odds of default are rising.
The common-sense interpretation is one that has the Japanese seeking stability away from government financial vehicles such as bonds etc. Gold lurks just off the radar screen, waiting for the next inevitable drop in the yen.

The elders still have over $600 Billion in uninsured savings exclusive of real estate holdings\. Any appreciable fraction of that amount converted to gold will crush all the central banks of the world.

This is the stuff of Fed nightmares.
@Jimbo: The last three times gold has been sent backwards the drop has been substantially LESS each time. This reveals that the cabal is LOSING strength in its ability to move gold downwards. We should not expect these criminals to go down with first exhausting every last bar of US treasury gold and any other bars they might con away from unsuspecting G-10 members.

The simple fact remains...if they HAD sufficient metal to drop gold back to $300 they would have already done so, long before all of today's positive financial press.

I used to think they were implementing a rationed, disciplined plan of retreat upwards to some reasonable level [Say $400] longer. The pattern of JPM/CITI gold derivatives in the last OCC report shows that they are being forced to ADD gold derivatives [Most likely in the form of even more "Loans" from G-10 dupes]. They can never get the gold back that they have already loaned, but they keep the over-strapped consumer...borrowing more and more adding credit card debt...thinking somehow that it all can be erased by some kind of "Bankruptcy thingy" [Official devaluation in this case].
(06/10/2002; 09:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 77883)
U.S. Says It Thwarted Dirty Bomb Attack by
Al Qaeda
Mon Jun 10,10:39 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Attorney General John Ashcroft ( news - web sites) on Monday said
U.S. authorities had prevented an attack on the United States with a radioactive dirty bomb by
capturing an Al Qaeda operative.

"We have captured a known terrorist who was exploring a plan to build and explode a
radiological dispersion device, or dirty bomb, in the United States," Ashcroft said in a
televised announcement from Moscow that was monitored in Washington.
Novice Bear
(06/10/2002; 09:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77884)
Max Rabbitz #77821 - Heirloom Seeds and genetic diversity
Max Rabbitz and all,

Your comment regarding food crops that "genetic diversity now resides in seed banks" is probably very true.
I am not an expert on these matters.

However, one of the items stored by many for Y2K preps
was non-hybrid or heirloom seeds (which have genetic

If you do a web search for this, I'm sure you'll find
several sources of these seeds, I have.

I think it is a prudent thing to stored seeds for food
crops in case food supplies are interrupted. Having
non-hybrid seeds is the best since you can save the seeds
and use it for next years crop.

I've read that many of the heirlooms are more pest and disease restistant than hybrid varieties, especially if you choose one commonly grown in your region.

--Novice Bear
(06/10/2002; 09:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 77885)
@ Canuck - Re Trading Halts -
Bet on K and ECO coming together - however, no idea as to how TVX may fit in.

Otherwise, pretty heavy bloodbath at the au-metal miners as the POG stages another day of mild consolidation.

Can u say - nice to have another day to pick up some more physical at bargain basement prices - in terms of any fiat paper out there? - or are you fretting about your paper gold mine position? - I'm neither ... just nicely unhedged and secure in my insurance...and I still buy some paper on dips for the fun of it.

As an old observation around the forum here a Dr. Heinrich Leopold has expressed the phenomenon of increasingly net gold exports from the US. These exports have started to surpass, both domestic production, scrap and dis-investment by the public.

The supply for the increasing Net-Gold Exports from had to come from a major hoard! And as the total net exports - not being covered by above explanations - may have reached an amount between 8-10.000 tons of gold ...

Oh well, just another one of those coincidences we've got to live with - or do we and you? cb2

(06/10/2002; 10:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77886)
RE -Net Gold Exports - from the US of A
This phenomenon of Net Gold exports started to turn negative in the late 80's - and only surpassed 8.000 tons in the last year or so! ... I hear!

Without implying anything more than James Turk's great findings about SDR's. Or, is it better their hitherto widely unknown SDR-Certificates. A potential clone to the lending substitute of the last resort.

... and without opting to go into further details, as all, who have been following this unfolding drama may be well aware - these kind of figures - leave not much doubt as to the origin of the stash, filling the void...

thank you - cb2

(06/10/2002; 10:12:29 MDT - Msg ID: 77887)
Eye for an eye
What prevents one of these shadowy hedge funds from taking a large short position in the mining stocks , then dumping their 5000 long contacts on the COMEX knowing in advance the certain impact it will have on the POG and the panic it will cause among the mining stock holders .Many of the mining stocks droped 8% in just one day. Thats not bad for a days work. Then the hedge funds can go back long on the stocks buy back the contracts and let the POG rise again giving the sheep a haircut over and over.

It might be a bit premature to declare the death of the internet just yet. Public Television did a piece outling how South Korea has the most advanced high speed fiber system in the world. The whole country is wired and everyone is using broadband.This was the vision of companies such as Quest and Global Crossing that borrowed so much money to lay all that fiber band width that now sits idle .Probably the new " killer application" that could drive the next wave of consumer spending, will be the "video phone," once the stuff of science fiction, it is now a reality with a new $1000 computer and a little clip on video camera

Its just that nasty little war in the Mideast keeps getting in the way.

It was good of al Quida to pre-announce this next series of attacks. Seems to me if they go after the Statue of Liberty our response should be to take out that big rock or meteorite or whatever it is "the Kaaba," that they are so proud of. That would really stir them up wouldn't it.They dont care about their own lives , they dont have a country to retaliate against, the only thing they care about is their worthless religion. An eye for an eye ,thats the only language they understand.

Nice to see so many Australians on the forum. I beleive I am correct in saying that Austrailia has the largest population of wild camels in the world, about 20 000 living wild in the outback , that were decendents of camels brought over by the early the 1840s. In fact since the genetic pools have been seperated for so long ,the Australians now routinely sell camel sperm to the Arabs because the Arab camels are too inbred and the Australian variety is a little bigger and sturdyer.
Cavan Man
(06/10/2002; 10:30:16 MDT - Msg ID: 77888)
@ CB (too)
Kind sir; do you mean to say the cubbard is bare and bereft of the precious kind? Perhaps the IMF may yet sally forth with their good intentions? (I'm betting otherwise.)

Tommy P
(06/10/2002; 11:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77889)
They hit us good today gents!
I figure $310.00 then it should rise, however the summer months are upon us, this may be a long drawn out affair back to the high 320's, comments??
Gandalf the White
(06/10/2002; 11:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77890)
OOPS !!!!!
(06/10/2002; 11:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77891)
Russia gold sales have been away so not sure if this was posted....Russia apparently sold 10 percent of holdings in May

Hmmm...Profit taking...or a little GWB jaw boning
(06/10/2002; 11:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 77892)
ok, so what?
1.333Moz only comes to approximately 40 tons...not all that much really.
(06/10/2002; 11:35:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77893)
Why the silence?
Why isn't anyone commenting on gold's $5 drop today, or the fact that just about all gold stocks are getting beaten down? Durban at this hour, for instance, is down where it was in early May. Gold Fields, Gold Corp., Harmony and others are having real problems. too. I don't see anything spectacular going on in the markets, particularly the Nasdaq, to justify this decline. Are those who short gold simply going crazy, or are there larger forces still at work as a follow up to last week's big sell-offs? Comments, please.
(06/10/2002; 11:45:55 MDT - Msg ID: 77894)
@ Cobra(too), Jimbo
Heard about a 3 way announcement upcoming, TVX, Kinross and Echo Bay.

I thought I was going to be Mr. Wise Guy and loaded up on Friday after the little pullback. I am being taken to the cleaners today LARGE. Physical remains physical.

(06/10/2002; 11:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 77895)
RE: Jimbo's Question
The $5.00 drop in gold and the accompanying correction in a number of gold stocks is actually good to see. If you look at the charts of DROOY or SSRI or any number of other gold / Silver stocks, they were vertical. While I like to see things go up, the pace was un-sustainable. Now, if you believe we are in a PM bull market, ( I do ) this is a healthy correction that needs to take place. Relax, gold and PM in general have everything going for them.
(06/10/2002; 11:56:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77896)
Jimbo ask yourself if you would you be a buyer now if you had sold your shares near the top. If the answer is yes, then why sell now? The market is the same only your perception is different.
(06/10/2002; 12:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 77897)
Re: kramrich
Actually, I'm such an optimist that I bought DROOY today (wish I had waited until late morning before making the purchase). You're right, corrections such as the ones we've experienced last week and today are healthy. But too many corrections over too long a period will discourage folks from buying gold, and many will leave the gold market. That's what makes it hard to relax. (Plus, I hate to lose money!)
(06/10/2002; 12:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77898)
I don't know about you...
But today has put me BIG in RED!!! In more ways than one!
(06/10/2002; 12:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 77899)
Spot's in the Doghouse today
Graefin/Jimbo...I agree with Camel - the shorts are having a great day today. Think long-term - there will be corrections and volatility and as Mikal said a while ago - we should expect'll get worse. I don't trade paper, I'm a buy 'n hold it kinda gal...easier on the nerves, and with days like today I just hang on for the ride. Just remember the long list of fundamentals in Golds favor - those haven't changed one iota today. To everything there is a season...and Gold will have its time.

BTW - Camel...I've learned a tremendous amount on this forum, everything from the merits of physical oil baboon calls...but I never dreamed I'd learn about the international trade of camel sperm...interesting little tidbit!
(06/10/2002; 12:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77900)
Sell PM Stocks, and Buy Gold
Gold is being manipulated by PAPER!! They sell paper contracts on the way up, then flood the market with huge numbers of contracts and panic the buyers. Most buyers sell back to the banks at a loss, which is profit for the dealers, and keeps down the gold price.

The only way we can beat them is to reduce our stock holdings (PM), and buy (take delivery and store safely) solid gold. They can't print up extra real gold.

I plan to put my money where my mouth is, and sell (at a profit) a company that has recently merged, and buy some Gold Eagles.
(06/10/2002; 12:48:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77901)
If you are familiar with Fibonacci numbers many folks will be looking at 50% and 62% retracements off the recent highs from their lows. Might give you some peace of mind to have an idea where the market may be going.
Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 12:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 77902)
Three Canada gold firms merge to create powerhouse

TORONTO, June 10 (Reuters) - Three Canadian mid-tier gold miners are joining forces to create one of the world's 10 biggest gold producers, with a market capitalization of more than $2 billion and annual output of 2 million ounces at a cost of less than $200 an ounce. Kinross Gold Corp. (Toronto:K), one of the stars in a recent rally in Toronto gold stocks, said it was offering 0.52 of a Kinross share for each share of Echo Bay Mines Ltd. (Toronto:ECO) , a 23 percent premium over the 30-day trading average. It was offering 0.65 of a Kinross share for each TVX Gold Inc. (Toronto:TVX.TO) share, a 47 percent premium over the 30-day average.

Black Blade: The consolidation continues in the mining industry. Gold is still holding up though only down about $10.00 from its high of about $330 an ounce.

(06/10/2002; 13:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77903)
Gold is Usually Hammered Just Ahead of Bad General News
...Which would tend depress the SMsSo...Perhaps the timed release of the terrorist plan to detonate a nuke [Probably in NYC] is a set-up to re-introduce folks to the idea of deterrence...and a lot of new -old 1950's angst.

In any event, the US currently has no terrorist nuke retaliation plan, no deterrence policy...and Washington is catching e-mail hell over that fact. Next Sunday's talking heads will reveal whether the US has made critical retaliation decisions to thwart would-be nuclear terrorists. We'll see.

Reporters have already begun to connect the dots that we are stuck between angering our oil-supplying "Friends" and targetting them for harboring terrorists as they do, with a wink and a nod. Reporters still haven't figured out that we have abandoned the concept of deterrence thereby acepting the inevitability of nukes in the and there...once in a Dick Cheny has implied. Hey, can't we just get along?

BTW 9/11 was orchestrated with NUMEROUS aircraft hijack cells operating independently of one another. Today's announcement regards ONE terrorist nuke cell with ONE guy. Where are the others in his cell? Where are the other cells?

Not to worry though...your crack FBI is at work on this one...DOJ has just now unleashed the snarling dogs of the FBI so they can for the FIRST a google search on the internet. THAT will bring Al Qaeda to it's knees! Head of the galloping google-search pack is the Joe bag-of-doughnuts FBI agent who punted on Moussaoui-Gate. Promotion, he got. One now supposes that he can afford to upgrade to an all Krispy-Kreme array of glistening, designer doughnuts.

Sleep tight.

Oh yes, almost forgot with all this terrific national security news, are you stocking up on more you-know-what today?

(06/10/2002; 13:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 77904)
Jimbo #77897, spoken like a true bug
I can't count the times I've seen this sorta thing:

"I'm such an optimist that I bought DROOY [aka A.HOLE] today (wish I had waited ------ too many corrections over too long a period will discourage folks from buying gold, and many will leave the gold market."

The vibe I'm getting from your posts is that your idea of buying Gold is buying a share of ownership for a hole in the ground. The same leverage that puts you in gravy on the upside will eat your lunch on the downside, potentially washing away your fortune at the margins throughout the journey higher.

The "volatility" you're seeing now is nothing, and contrary to your thought, serious movements up and "corrections" down won't discourage people from buying Gold. It will drive the sensible ones to it (metal) as they find the leverage too hot to handle.

For those new to the scene, here's a few reasons mine ownership is no substitute for Gold ownership:

-- Management can change from good to bad, bad to worse
-- Workers may strike
-- Social unrest may hinder production
-- Political powers may tax or nationalize key natural resources
-- Environmental impact awareness/regs may hinder future prospects
-- Natural hazards like flooding or earthquake my hinder production or damage facility
-- Finally and most importantly: Each new day of production brings an orebody and the life of the mine one step closer to exhaustion/death. Thus, opportunities for growth in this industry are grossly over-imagined.

Owning Gold (metal) gives protection in worse-case scenarios as financial/trading institutions or infrastructure breaks down. But on a more positive and realistic note, metal ownership gives exposure to upside potential from increasing affluence as the global economies grow and money is "printed" faster than new Gold can be found to feed into the demand for (what should be -- Free Gold) uninflatable savings.

On that note I refer you to Belgian's excellent series of posts yesterday, expecially

Belgian (06/09/02; 11:02:37MT - msg#: 77813)

Bravo, Sir Belgian. Bravo.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/10/2002; 13:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 77905)
Talk About Corruption
From Railroad Cars to Railroading Cover-Ups Senator Feinstein, 1999 US Customs Corruption Cover-UP,
Tons of drugs in Pressurized Rail Cars, Huge Distribution Network.
Senator Seen With Customs Official Suspect on his Yacht.

White House Staff Received CIPRO Before First anthrax attack.

FBI Under Withering Fire for Moussaoui-Gate,
Director Can't Manage to Fire Even One Agent

Catherine Ann Fitts Expos� of Enron/DOJ Cover-UP
Seven Basic Steps of All Investigations... All "Side-Stepped"

All this corruption is sapping the confidence of average Americans and seriously undermining confidence in government institutions. The Wall Street brokerage corruption mess just opens the latrine wider.

Rumor has dozens of FBI field agents rebelling and threatening to turn into whistle blowers and that Thursday's Home Land Security announcement was White House reaction to that field pressure.

Terrorist Investigation:

There may be a good reason that the FBI doughnut man who foot dragged on the Moussaoui/Al Qaeda investigation hasn't been fired yet. He may know too much to be fired. Perhaps there are numerous similar J.Edgar Hoover, chubby wannabees spread throughout the bureau, each one with a heavy briefcase of damning documents on a universe of official corruption to be used against superiors or Congress or Presidents or Wall Street their golden parachutes in case of an "Emergency"?
R Powell
(06/10/2002; 13:36:42 MDT - Msg ID: 77906)
Kramrich // Jimbo
I saw your mention of Fibonacci numbers. There are many technical traders who buy and sell according to such figures. Some will go as far as to intentionally block out or avoid any fundamental information which, they feel, might bias their chart reading decisions. Because there are enough who so trade, the Fibonacci numbers' predictions become (imho) self-fulfilling prophesies.
As you might guess, with this opinion of technical analysis, I'm not very sure of myself when figuring the figures. Could you tell us what you see for the starting number, recent high and possible retractions?
I intend to invest a little in the yellow metal but only on the dips (a trick I learned from the dot com-ers) and would love to have a target.

Jimbo, patience my friend, patience. We are very likely in a multi-year bull market for gold, silver and many other commodities. The US dollar weakening against other currencies will improve export numbers on corn, soybeans, cotton, orange concentrate, etc. There will be down days but higher lows and higher highs over time. Remember the Carpenters? "We've only just begun."
Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 13:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 77907)
Re: sector - Al Qaeda Nuke Threat

Doesn't anyone find it strange that no nuclear materials were found? This sounds like a ploy to convince Americans that they "must" give up freedom and liberty for their safety from some threat. Uncle Sam will protect us if we just give up freedom and become the government's eyes and ears (much like mainland China's block patrols) and watch for dissidents. I await the total repeal of the 4th, 5th, 8th and 10th admendments (not that law enforcement and justice pay much attention anyway). Perhaps we will eventually have "thought police". Apparently "we the people" must be "controlled" for our own good. We saw this coming for a very long time. Nothing new here. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 13:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77908)
My book came in I just have to start reading it!
(06/10/2002; 14:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77909)
I don't talk that way, honest!
It's just that the 'X' key is eSpecially close to the 'S' key on my keyboard. Sheeeeeeeeeeeexh!!!


Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 14:30:35 MDT - Msg ID: 77910)
Dubya calls for US Gestapo

US President George Dubya Bush took to the airwaves last night in an appeal for the establishment of a new cabinet-level Department of Homeland Security, to keep us all safe and snug in our beds.

Black Blade: An interesting take on the new Washington power grab. Should go well with the new "Patriot Act". "Interesting Times"

(06/10/2002; 14:39:13 MDT - Msg ID: 77911)
R Powell
I think Fibonacci numbers and Elliott wave analysis will apply more to mining stocks rather than the futures market at this point. In the futures market there are many fundamental reasons why POG will not act like share prices will in being manipulated into fitting Fib numbers. Longs in the futures market are less likely to get spooked by a retracement for one. Also as the POG drops more mining companies will cover their hedge books (ie... buying) helping to support the POG. ME conflicts, Indi/Pak , Enronitis, and the current landmine...Iraq, all will keep the shorts from pushing POG into their mold. I doubt we will see a 50% retracement in the futures market.

However, the mining shares are easily manipulated at the recent highs. 30 minutes before the close today many shares were lower by 15-20% for the day!. Shares were bought off the lows at the close. I'm sure the funds are enjoying the lower prices they are picking these stocks up at. Fibonacci numbers are easily incoporated into computer trading programs. As such there will be many buy signals at those numbers. Probably funds jumping into the market. Like you said its a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Rumsfeld is in Kuwait today. Hmmm?
(06/10/2002; 14:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77912)
Aristotle........& "All"
Some "Golden Tidbits"1- The amount of gold dissolved in the oceans is nearly ten million tons, which is about 180 times the total amount of gold dug in mines in the entire history of humanity

2- Gold is the most malleable and ductile of metals. It may be beaten into gold leaf as thin as 4 millionths of an inch --an ounce can be beaten out to 187 square feet. An ounce of gold can also be drawn into a wire more than 40 miles long. Gold is a good conductor of electricity, though not as good as silver or copper.

3- In the last 500 years, about 80,000 tons of gold have been taken from the earth. World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons. Since gold is both durable and carefully guarded, most of the gold that has been taken from the earth still exists. Much of it has been buried again -- in underground vaults, where it is held in government monetary reserves. Approximately 45% of all the world's gold is held by governments and central banks for this purpose. Gold is still accepted by all nations as a medium of international payment.

4- Gold is widespread in low concentrations in all igneous rocks. It occurs mostly in the native state, remaining chemically uncombined. It often occurs in association with copper and lead deposits, and, though the quantity present is often extremely small, it is readily recovered as a by-product in the refining of those base metals. One-third of all gold is produced as a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc production.

5- Where gold occurs in higher concentrations, the deposits are of two basic types: hydrothermal veins, associated with quartz and pyrite (fool's gold); and placer deposits, that are derived from the erosion of gold-bearing rocks and appear in alluvium and stream beds. The origin of enriched veins is not known, with assurance, but theories contend that gold was carried to the surface from great depths in the earth's mantle, in partial solid solution, and later precipitated.

6- In the late 20th century four countries -- South Africa, Russia, the United States, and Australia -- accounted for two-thirds of the gold produced annually throughout the world. South Africa alone, with its vast Witwatersrand mines, produces about one-third of the world's gold.


*In the last 500 years, about 80,000 tons of gold have been taken from the earth. World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons....So unless they can figure out how to refine Gold from Saltwater, the supply is finite, and over 2/3 has been mined already by present day capabilities....At the present 2500 to 2800 tons per year being mined we have about 12 years of worldwide Gold production left....Now does "Anybody" think that Gold will not become outrageously more valuable in our own lifetimes?????.........YGM

(06/10/2002; 14:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 77913)
USAGOLD/CPMThe 1oz Silver Maple came today. What a Top Notch Coin.BEAUTIFUL! A mirror Image of Queen Elizabeth II and a wonderful engravement of Canadas Maple leaf on the back.
This is what are coinage should be made of. Artistry and value.
Thank you USAGOLD/CPM.
(06/10/2002; 14:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77914)
@ Aristotle
Great line Ari,

"It will drive the sensible ones to it (metal) as they find the leverage too hot to handle."

I hope I wake up someday, the heat was way too much to handle today.
(06/10/2002; 14:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 77915)
"World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons"

I assume this is at $300 US. Where does this information obtained? Do you know the 'economically recoverable' quantities at $400, $500 etc.?

(06/10/2002; 15:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77916)
More on Gold and Finite Quantities in Earth....

Many, possibly most, geologists and mining engineers will
agree that the future gold supply of the world is limited, also
that many known deposits have been greatly depleted and some
wholly exhausted. This is true of those in the United States
and Europe. It seems unlikely that any major deposits com-
parable to those of South Africa will again be discovered. With
the possible exception of Siberia there are now few areas of the
earth's surface remaining to be explored, and with the advent of
the aeroplane there will soon be few nooks and corners of the
land surface which have not come under observation. As a
by-product or associate with other metals and ores the output of
gold is likely to continue large, but at best this quantity is
small as compared with that of the Transvaal and the combined
production of gold-lode mines in other parts of the world. It
is difficult, perhaps, for the public to understand that the once
famous alluvial gold deposits of California, Australia, and
Alaska were Nature's hoards, treasure-trove whose gold was
eroded from neighbouring rocks within the hills and mountains
of the district through periods of thousands of years and concen-
trated in surface accumulations easily accessible to man's simple
tools, chiefly the pick and shovel. These diggings, as they were
known, became quickly exhausted.
(06/10/2002; 15:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 77917)
CM - The Cupboard is bare?
- Dear Sir,

CM - The cupboard may be full of cups - I only feel the cups are awaiting a re-fill of reality - while all, you and the rest of us is getting our fill of dirty nuclear enslavement - and the EU racing to foreclose on any financial overdose - as monetary transfer in itself is either Mafia-, Drug- or Criminal induced ... while the FED/CB's and in the end ... it is the establishment using the transferability of their TRILLIONS to the debasement of the millions of their MINIONS!

Comatose ... which cannot be systemized to the established Mafia, CIA, FBI and now Homeland Security - an outfit to spy on your neighbour and any other - oh brother, don't be shy to call it GESTAPO (Geheime Staats-Polizei - or Secret State Police) ...

Thank you friends of the former free to export and extort your liberty to the rest of the globe - and green mail all to gall the 90 plus % - to no Greenback's end ... and may you wonder later - why the other - a mere 90% - quit to acknowledge the division of labor ...

... I've got the licqour - (though)
the sheriff got it quicker (li'l Joe)

Oh, No - I don't care as the cupboard is bare and AG has
surrendered his last to latest blasphemy ... though, the last FED man walkin' will tell ya', how well his surrogate, though criminal and unconstitutional "legal tender" - a slander in itself has worked for almost a century.

- time to end the crime and debase the atrocity of the establishment's so called 'generosity' to set up a social wellfare state - where the the only wellfare is direct6ed to the state of expropriation.

Is the US, the EU and the few other "western (ex-industrial) States (pluralis - on purpose!) too lethargic to pick up the slack of the dollarized, even totalitarized
and lastly monopolized - globalized - total (in-)sanitized idiocy of shipping all reality -
being produc(e) a/o -ts-
of inferior price - as all prices are now totally hedged - ... The Irish may have their St. Patricks Day - now every day as they from here on know ... the Stew is not dependent on the cabbage, the lamb and/ or the potato(o).

Sorry - CM - here's to u - cb2 - tm-dew

(06/10/2002; 15:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 77918)
I have 're-arranged' your quote (I hope you don't mind) and it is now a poster on the wall (numerous now). It looks like this:

Gold: Supply/Demand Fundamentals

In the last 500 years, about 80,000 tons of gold have been taken from the earth.

World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons....the supply is finite.

At present 2500 to 2800 tons per year being mined; we have about 12 years of worldwide gold production left.

Now does "Anybody" think that Gold will not become outrageously more valuable in our own lifetimes?


Are these numbers correct? I was trying to look at the numbers from an anti-gold perspective (people will ask questions) and saw one unusual number. If it took 500 years to mine 80,000 tons why will it take 12 to mine 32,000 tons? Simply from the 2500-2800 ton demand, yes? How is 32,000 derived?

(06/10/2002; 15:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 77919)
Arafat's "Explosion". Literally or figuratively? a speech broadcast today, Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat threatened that if Israel does not retreat from PA-ruled areas that there will
be a "disastrous explosion that will impact stability of the whole world."

According to the Palestinian Authority's official news agency WAFA, in an address broadcast in Spain to an awards ceremony honoring EU Middle East
envoy Miguel Moratinos, Arafat claimed that "the situation in Palestine is at the edge of explosion."

Arafat warned that if Israel does not withdraw from Palestinian held territory immediately, "enabling our people to practice their legitimate rights of
establishing the independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, the whole region will witness a disastrous explosion that will impact not
only the region but the stability of the whole world."
(06/10/2002; 15:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77920)
Canuck... think the 32,000 T figure is more concerned with known geological formations and rough estimates thereof than costs of recovery.... The numbers could be skewered either way. Once one tries to get Gold out of Salt water the cost seems prohibitive. But one must also consider we now can recover Gold from Leaching solutions with simple Charcoal filters, so we must not rule out anything being possible in the future.....The link above provided the fist info to Ari...I will post one other presently......YGM.
(06/10/2002; 15:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77921)
Rumsfeld in Kuwait. Talks With Troops in Kuwait

By Robert Burns
AP Military Writer
Monday, June 10, 2002; 2:37 AM


CAMP DOHA, Kuwait (AP) -- At
this desert encampment 35
miles from the Iraqi border,
Defense Secretary Donald H.
Rumsfeld told American troops
that state sponsors of terrorism
must be punished.

Without mentioning Iraq by
name, Rumsfeld said the
soldiers are on the front lines
against a dangerous foe.

"You are the people who stand between freedom and fear, between our
people and a dangerous adversary that cannot be appeased, cannot be
ignored and cannot be allowed to win," he told about 1,000 troops
assembled in an air-conditioned gymnasium on a 110-degree
afternoon Sunday.

Rumsfeld left little doubt he was aiming his words at Iraq, which he
often says is among nations that support international terrorist groups
and could help them gain access to weapons of mass destruction.

(06/10/2002; 15:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 77922)
More on Gold facts....

How gold is formed

Gold is widely dispersed in the Earth's crust in very low concentrations of 0.001 grams per tonne. For mining to be viable, gold needs to be concentrated between 2000 and 10,000 times (2 - 10 g/tonne) to form a gold deposit. Most gold mined in Australia today cannot be seen in the rock. It is very fine grained and mostly has a concentration of less than 5 grams in every tonne of rock mined.

Gold usually occurs in its metallic state, commonly associated with sulphide minerals such as pyrite, but it does not form a separate sulphide mineral itself. The only economically important occurrence of gold in chemical combination is with tellurium as telluride minerals.

Primary gold deposits form deep in the Earth's crust when hot fluids containing carbon and sulphur move upwards, dissolving gold and other ore components from the rocks through which they pass. These fluids travel along faults, fractures and other weaknesses in the rocks, carrying the gold in solution as a gold-sulphur complex. Around 5 to 10 km beneath the Earth's surface, the gold-bearing fluids react with iron rich rocks, causing gold to precipitate within pyrite crystals and in quartz veins.

Gold nuggets are derived from the break-up of exposed primary gold-rich veins, or 'grow' within the soil or weathered rock as gold is gradually deposited from the groundwater.

Secondary gold deposits are in the thick layer of weathered rocks blanketing much of Western Australia. Over the millions of years since primary gold deposits formed, the land has been uplifted and eroded in a continually changing climate. Under humid tropical conditions of 100 million years ago, primary gold was dissolved by rainwater and precipitated in horizontal layers just below the water table. About 15 million years ago, the climate became increasingly arid and the water table dropped. The gold dissolved in the saline groundwater and was carried downwards. During periods when the water table was stable, gold concentrated at this level. Changes in the position of the water table have resulted in a series of layers of concentrated gold.

Most gold deposits in Western Australia formed during the Archaean Era - more than 2,500 million years ago. Exceptions include the Telfer deposits which occur in rocks that formed 1,000 million years ago (late Proterozoic Era) and the Boddington deposit's secondary gold enrichment which formed about 35 million years ago (Tertiary Period).

(06/10/2002; 15:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77923)
@ Aristoteles and Jimbo
If I only could figure out *** WHY *** so many people, strongly interested in Gold and its derivatives, are soooooo
" hesitant " when it comes to the point of Possessing the Physical !? Yes, "aversion" for Physical in Possession might have two (2) good (?) reasons IN THE PAST !!! :

1/ The 21 year decline of POG !

2/ The leverage on the paper-gold !

3/ Central bank selling hysteria !

But the past is something that "was". And today/tomorrow is something that will come. And that something is going to be completely "DIFFERENT" ! It is this Big Difference that is constantly argued/commented and elaborated here. There is so much other paper than goldpaper, floating out there with much more volatility and chances to make a fiat killing.
Why do goldbugs stick to this goldpaper without being interested in having/holding/possessing that very unique store of wealth ? There are trillions of $ opportunities for shorting and selling into the wind. But paper goldbugs remain glued to there exclusive yellow paper and keep on accumulating discomfort or even frustration when the ups and downs do remind them about the past 21 years of false take offs and crash landings !

Aristoteles, dear fellow knight, you must help me to understand "WHY" ! The 20% POG rise and/or a 6%/10% decline, provokes so much emotions here, simply because there is not refered to Physical in Possession but to the fivefold multiplications (moves) on the paper(mine)stuff.
All this would be great if part of these speculative rewards should automatically be exchanged for adding more to our universal store of wealth. GOLD INVESTMENT !!
But I'm afraid that this is not the case.

Eastern Gold-Holders are exactly doing this maneuver over and over again. They generate fiat with fiat (or labor/trade) and store/accumulate/ the excess confetti (profit) into GOLD.
Westerners naievely keep trusting the permanent depreciation of what they keep on calling calling fiat (virtual digits) as good as real money.

Why is buying and selling of Physical Gold, on a massive scale, such a remote and strange act ? Why do we first jump into any kind of totally unknown paper when buying/selling that well known and universal yellow precious should be such a "Normal" trade !? What is the "main" problem/obstacle here ? Taking 10% profit on a bond (trade) is a piece of cake...but profitably trading ounces of Physical Gold, seems almost an excentric deed ? How can we ever expect, westerners to "INVEST" in physical Gold, when trading Physical is not fully popularized ?

People do trade so many different tangibles with profit or loses...but Physical Gold trades remain an infinitesimal faction of those trades.

Another and Company, found the solution for ending this ungold reflexes before we start running out on the scarce underground available ! He found a way to set GOLD FREE !
He found architects who drafted a plan and a strategy to implement this plan. So that all perceptions on Physical holding would be washed away and replaced by a complete new approach towards Physical Gold ! Not for trading daily necessities but for common storage of ones wealth. As is done already for centuries by 30% of total population.

Yes it all is wrapped into the correct understanding of what exactly "FREE GOLD" means ! Free to be appreciated by the balancing masses and not an exclusive elitist affair !
A volontary shism of forces as wise selfcontrol and evaluation on monetary policies. Yes GOLD, Free Gold would be WON_DER_FULL as that ultimate "honest" tool to avoid repetitive and unavoidable monetary abuses.

Gold Advocates here, can do no more than argue why one should anticipate this evolution NOW ! Not only with dry theoretical considerations but much more intuitively visible on a long term POG chart. Relativate long term (only 30 years) and realize that Gold's valuation is rightout "obscene" as compared to what happened during these past very turbulent years.

Thinking very deeply on this and acting consequently on it, carries a very high probability of enormous succes. Elapsing time can be used to keep on generating more invest in Physical on a continious pace.
Nobody is in he possibility to know, "when" or exactly "how", this Golden eartquake will take place. But this isn't good enough reason for not anticipating what shall be.

Don't make the mistake/excuse...that this FREE GOLD will not happen during your lifetime ! Therefore, try to come to terms with the hughe magnitude of Total Bad Debt Worldwide and its DRAMATIC consequences, very soon to be experienced.
The Debt-Limits are within arms length !!! Reread TG's explanations on what happened with Gold/Interest Rates/US$ from 1971 onwards ! 1971 to 1980 was the COUNT DOWN of the hyperinflation rocket launch. Take off has been aborted in extremis. In 1999, a new count down has started ! This time, final launch can't be aborted anymore. Not necessarely a doom and gloom projection but rather a future where the much needed *monetary change/transition* will finally take place.

Sorry for the monotomy of my postings. Will take a few days off. Good night from Euroland.

R Powell
(06/10/2002; 16:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77924)
Why? Leveraged Profit.
If one drinks milk with cereal in the morning can that one also drink a beer at the end of the day? Can one drink milk and beer? Are they mutually exclusive? Can one own physical and also paper assets? Why, oh why do you scream that ONLY physical is right???? I hold physical metal and paper assets. Does this condemn me as evil or stupid? Was I not right to buy for $175 an option that I sold six weeks later for $5500 (thanks Mr. Buffett!). This "paper" silver profit bought me, among other things, 200 silver eagle coins (and paid a pile of bills).
I bought my physical from the fine folks here. Excellent and friendly service!
However, I also hold paper positions. Why does this upset you so?? My life, my risk, my gain or loss.
Paper and physical!
Get you both-- if you like.
(06/10/2002; 16:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77925)
@ Sir Rich
Not condemnation...not screaming, Sir ! Only my clumsy communication on how and why I changed into a Gold Advocate. And if this is disturbing, I do apologize sincerely to you and any other forumer/reader, for having done so.
(06/10/2002; 17:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 77926)
physical vs. paper Belgian
I hold both, but judging how my gold stocks took a hit today, I wonder about the paper. Usually paper goes up quicker and faster than physical and gives more leverage.
Since your postings proclaim a paper crash in the future I see your bias to physical. I share that bias, but everyone is entitled to their own "wisdom".

I think the big reason that most people don't buy physical is that it is just not convenient. One and only one,bank in my city of 800,000 sells gold maples. There is a local coin dealer where you can purchase bullion, but there is a high premium over spot. I would say that 99% of the public would have no idea where to buy physical, but since they are hounded by their brokers to participate in the great gold run, they buy stocks.

If you purchase more than $1,000 worth of gold in Canada, the seller must report your particulars to the Federal gov't
due to money laundering laws. Why should the average investor go through all that crap? If the investor actually does do his own research and arrives at this site, then he will be able to have another source for his physical purchases.

None of my friends buy physical gold. They may concur with me that it is "insurance", but there are no sexy gains like the stock market. Having acquired physical for some time and I continue to do so, I doubt if I will ever sell it. Why would I sell my physical for paper? If gold goes to the moon as you suggest, then I suppose I will be able to trade
the gold for any possession I would want, but at my age, I have most of the toys I would ever want.

Don't be so hard on people. The educational process takes
Cavan Man
(06/10/2002; 17:19:50 MDT - Msg ID: 77927)
To: Belgian
It is hard to figure isn't it? Know something else I can't understand. The GATA bunch especially Murphy who have done so much for the cause; if the gold and associated derivative markets are as potentially lethal as they suggest, why so much talk and otherwise promotion of mining stocks? If those markets are half as fouled up as GATA maintains than I would think the only antidote would be physical. Now, I have supported GATA, love the bunch and do own one Jr. in large measure. Therefore, don't shoot the messenger!
R Powell
(06/10/2002; 17:49:31 MDT - Msg ID: 77928)
Belgian // forum
Thanks and I believe I also owe you an apology as, after rereading, I don't see enough advocating of physical only to justify my rant.
Also, I'd love to see the masses of common citizens buying and holding gold as you advocate (and silver). It wouldn't take much, percentage-wise, of investment capital to really shock the fiat (political) system.
However, I don't think it can happen in a vacuum, without mining stocks and exchanges. The POG is connected to so many different variables ranging from political currency manipulation to basic supply/demand figures. Discouraging those investors interested in stocks or commodity trading from participating here will severely limit our membership and perspective. The story of gold and the search for wider understanding is not served, but restricted, by dissuading the exchange of information pertaining to the world gold markets, including stocks and exchanges although I realize intensive analysis of individual companies belongs on stock forums.
Uponroof is campaigning to spread gold information by refering investors here. Let us welcome them with information and gentle persuasion toward physical buying but let's do this without totally disparaging all other forms of investment.
Concerning paper investments, if the dollar risks overwhelm, then certainly physical is the correct choice. Most financial analysts advocate diversification. Why not?
Physical and paper, peaceful co-existence
Security and risk, balanced any way you like!
Not investment advice but I'll be buying the dips!
(06/10/2002; 18:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 77929)
In response to Aristotle
Buying physical isn't always a viable option, especially for those who draw a partial income from their IRAs. As Bulldog pointed out (#77926), physical just isn't practical or convenient, especially when it comes to storing, insuring and working with local banks. (I hope you, Black Blade and others who regularly buy physical can make a good argument to counter what I just said.)

For those reasons, as you stated, I buy "a share of ownership for a hole in the ground." You're right, I'm learning that by so doing I'm subject to having my lunch eaten on the downside. That's the reality, unfortunately, for me and others like me who are in this position.

That said, this is the first time in nearly six months of investing in gold stocks that I've been hit really hard. On the other three occasions, there's always been a fast recovery, the lost money was made up, and I moved ahead. Someday, I hope my gold stocks will grow in value so that I can cash them in and do what you recommend: buy physical. At that point, I hope to retire.

Your posts--and wisdom--about purchasing physical are excellent. I'd suggest, however, that you dispense additional thoughts and ideas to help investors such as me learn how to negotiate these tough times...and endure. After all, our stock purchases are helping increase the value of your physical.

(06/10/2002; 18:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77930)
Re:Exchanges and Stocks
It will be most interesting to see the aftermath on the Exchanges, including Comex. I share FOA's beliefs that he profferred here and on the Gold Trail, and similar opinions on this subject posted over the years. Aside from the many risks of stock ownership, the obvious case for a fast cascading sequence of defaults, trading suspensions, exchange collapses & closures, restructurings, bank and corporate bailouts & bancruptcies, etc., is too compelling. Couple this with systemic detioration in the world financial system, terrorist threats, wars, and other risks.
A Canadian
(06/10/2002; 18:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 77931)
Physical gold is not an investment. It is a foolproof store of wealth. Always there if needed. (hopefully never).
Completely immune from gov't, banksters, lawyers, partners, ex-spouses and others who seek to drain you. It allows one to have true financial security. Period. Accept no substitutes.
It should never be sold. (negates entire exercise). It is the family "house". I hope for many generations to live in it for this house will never crumble.
However....we live in a credit created paper world. As repulsive as it may be , it's still the only game in town. You gotta play so play well. You still need fistfulls of dirty fiat to buy food, pay rent and purchase PHYSICAL.
Why not parlay knowledge of gold into stock profits? I did. It's no worse than any other method of fiat accumulation.
Fiat to live. Gold for life. Pretty obvious I think.
I check my goldstock prices every day. I NEVER check the price of my physical. I only hound the woman I think might be cheating on me....
(06/10/2002; 18:44:30 MDT - Msg ID: 77932)
Max Rabbitz
Bugs and RadsThank you for the info and will check out Kearnys book.
On exposure to rads is simular to mil specs. Two hundred max daily exposure for work and Four hundred for hotspot cleanup but it had very low exposure time. Have read some on free radicles. They have a connection to cancer. There was talk of a cure in the area of research.
Thanks again Max.
(06/10/2002; 18:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 77933)
Re: Stocks
Another risk in holding paper is waiting for your coins to show up on the market. The price will be higher too. Just ask the wolf- "Toooo Daaa Moooooooon". Someone posted an excellent list of gold mine cons vs. pros today. I add this coin price and availability. And others: Windfall profts taxes, capital gains taxes, broker fees, production (mine output) controls and restrictions. One of the reasons I expect them to limit US mine output, and possibly other countries, if nationalizing the mines isn't done, is to make their gold holdings more valuable, both official and private. Official holdings can help to offset the debt of a large trade deficit and budget deficit.
(06/10/2002; 18:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 77934)
Worth a Mention??Quite possibly when we get these seemingly diffent opinions as to Physical Hoards vs Paper Trading (oftentimes done to acquire Physical) we tend to forget age or financial worth differences in those advocating either preference. I would imagine for those with already acquired wealth one would only be looking to protect it without further risk and hoping to see POG at realistic levels in future....Many of us, and I'm one myself, still have alot of earning to do before we reach that personaly determined level of Financial security, so we take some risk and acquire a steady (hopefully) however small reserve of Physical Ag or Au as we go....I must say as a steady monotonous advocate of physical, if I had the understanding and resources to play futures, I'd be there, guns a blazing.... For I'm a long way from yesterday's reality when it comes to net worth today!

PS: if you ever want to give any free advice how to get in the game, get Randy to give you my email. Mining physical cost me a small fortune and I would be game to risk a bit more to get some back from the Paper Pushers.....YGM.
(06/10/2002; 19:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 77935)
Re: Paper
A poster here or next door made note of the likelihood of mine takeovers. Of mines affected by drastic government regulations like crippling taxes, output restrictions, land reclamation and rezoning. Certain politicians and banking institutions are known to have large blocks of shares that could become controlling shares, a controlling interest. Crippled mines are prey to merger, acquisition or closure.
(06/10/2002; 19:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 77936)
DENVER FIRE & USA Gold Staff/Offices....,1413,36%257E23447%257E664714%257E,00.html***Keep us posted...we may have to volunteer for the fire fighting to keep you folks in business. Are you near the danger area???...YGM

Residents flee blaze
By Jennifer Hamilton
Associated Press Writer

Monday, June 10, 2002 - Updated 4:30 p.m. - A wind-driven wildfire closed in fast on Denver today, and authorities said up to 40,000 people might have to be evacuated from their homes along the southwestern edge of the metropolitan area.
The 61,000-acre fire roared to within 10 miles of residential neighborhoods, spreading toward Denver at about a mile an hour.

Firefighters were pulled off the lines in front of the fire because it was too dangerous.

"They just cannot see the front of this fire because of the smoke," said U.S. Forest Service spokeswoman said Barb Masinton.

Nearly 500 homes and several campgrounds about 50 miles southwest of Denver were evacuated on Sunday.

Masinton earlier told The Associated Press that an additional 40,000 residents had been ordered evacuated. But U.S. Forest Service spokeswoman Susan Haywood, who is Masinton's boss, later said Masinton misspoke. She said that it was possible 40,000 would have to be evacuated, but that no such order had been issued.

"It was our lifelong dream to live up here," said one of those evacuated, Carol Simone, whose home is about 30 miles south of Denver. "It isn't about the house, it's the woods and the environment. If that's destroyed I'm going back to Florida."

(06/10/2002; 19:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 77937)
Physical and Paper Gold
************************I prefer to have physical gold. Mainly to take out of the hands of the manipulators. As long as we are in the paper game gold stocks would be good for some people to invest in if they knew the workings of gold stocks.

Yes. Freeing Gold one ounce at a time.
Max Rabbitz
(06/10/2002; 19:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77938)
Novice Bear and Genetic Diversity
I don't want to get too far off topic but I applaud those who preserve the seeds of food plants from our past. Our germplasm banks hold many of these seeds but as with all things governmental there can be problems. One is that genetic diversity is dependent on continued funding. Seeds must be replanted every so many years as seeds slowly lose viability in storage. Storage itself is a problem. We tend to end up with seeds that are good as being viable after long storage in particular controlled conditions. Some genes are being lost. Every so many years the gene banks plant these seeds to produce new ones. They are planted in field plots not far apart. Cross pollination occurs.

Funding for gene banks is always low on the list of governmental priorities. I expect that during a fiscal crisis social security payments will come way ahead of genetic diversity on the priority list.


P.S. My opinion on the gold dollar price: Look at the one year chart. So far each upward spike has been brought under control, but at higher prices. The trend is your friend. Yet our long lost friend who is Friend of Another says paper can bring the dollar price lower and lower. I see his point. Just buy physical is very good advice.
(06/10/2002; 19:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 77939)
Off Topic...You Bet... there are 586,000 acres of fires currently burning stateside, and only "Two" contained!
(06/10/2002; 19:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 77940)
Re: FOA, Friend of Another
Max, I interpret his often repeated view that "paper can take the price lower and lower" to mean it is one of his possible trigger scenarios. Leaving paper behind, separating it from physical, first in Europe, and of necessity, everywhere. A rather detailed outline too, as I recall.
Black Blade
(06/10/2002; 19:52:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77942)
Market Wrap Up -- Puplava

Looking at today's market, the possibility for a summer rally is playing according to cue. Funds and day traders were net liquidators of gold and silver equities today judging by a review of money flows all day long. Many speculators and mutual funds have accumulated positions since the beginning of the year. Mutual fund managers are now liquidating many of those positions either to handle fund redemptions, or to reposition for the summer rally pushed by Wall Street. Many of the indexes and individual stocks are now in oversold positions. The rally today is weakened by news of an uncovered terrorist plot to try and plant a bomb that would spread radiation upon detonation.

Investors and fund managers are now playing the rotation game by selling off shares of oil, natural gas, gold and silver shares, along with technology shares in anticipation of a market rally. Shares of retailers, consumer staples and consumer cyclicals are being accumulated in the hopes of an economic recovery for the second half of the year. But for reasons already elaborated in this column and in Storm Updates, those profit recoveries aren't going to be there. However, this is all part of the earnings game. Companies will announce earnings warnings this month and analysts will lower expectations and estimates to a point where companies will then be able to exceed expectations. That should give us a brief summer rally before the harsh realities of the fall start. The earnings game is playing according to the book. This will give investors one more chance to sell their overvalued stocks and pick up undervalued gold, silver, and energy equities from managers and investors who are now selling them.

Black Blade: This has been long expected. However, I would say that the sales of Gold and Silver have been due to in large part those institutions that are short the metal through exotic derivatives. They had the scare of their financial lives when Gold crossed over $330 an ounce. There are perhaps fund managers who have been sucked in by investment strategists like Abby Joseph Cohen who pump the markets with companies that tout nonexistent profits. It's good to be insured with Gold and Silver insurance. I see several people are lamenting the pull back in prices. I don't cry when I pay auto or any other insurance because that cash is gone. As far as Gold and Silver is concerned, I still have possession. I also have rolled shares for fun and profit over the last few years and all my remaining shares are essentially a free ride. Who says that you can't have both? I would like to add to my physical as the prices retreat -- however, this retreat is very minor as I think that the weak hands have just about given back all they can, and the price may consolidate in the $310 to $315 range before setting a floor for another run. There are just too many fundamentals in favor of gold. The overvalued US dollar is falling against the other world currencies (even with all the buying of dollars and selling of yen by the Japanese government), the potential of higher interest rates, possibilities of armed conflict, falling stock markets, rising consumer and corporate debt, falling corporate profits, rising unemployment, etc.

(06/10/2002; 20:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 77945)
Silver, Stockpile out in two months GOOD.
(06/10/2002; 20:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 77946)
From USAGOLD Live News and The Scotsman
�Tuesday,�11th�June 2002�
The Scotsman
Euro rises as US waits
THE euro rose yesterday against the dollar and yen, as the former waited for improvement in the direction of US stocks.
The euro was 0.32 per cent higher on the dollar at 94.63 cents, and well off session lows of 93.90 cents after the market shrugged off surprisingly weak German retail sales link for more
Max Rabbitz
(06/10/2002; 20:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 77947)
The only reason I play any paper games is to turn it into physical.
(06/10/2002; 20:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 77948)
@BlackBlade The Nuke "Plan"...that wasn't a "Plan"
Well...the guy WAS talking about it!...We think...with his buddies...over a Pakistani rum and Coke...while watching some porno on the internetAll the media press about a dirty radiological bomb is high theater.

In order for Al Qaeda to get radiological materials such as Cobalt60 from US medical oncology treatment centers they first have to know what those centers are, where the source is located within the centers, how to shield themselves from the lethal radiation, how to overpower personnel, evade security cameras, operate the automatic equipment controls to expose the source, convert the metal into a powder[A real toughie] and finally assemble a bomb all before they inevitably die of radiation poisoning.

If these guys actually have a plan then they actually have a bomb.

A wild guess is that Pakistan gave them one of the 10-15 already built or they bought one from someone on the long list of starving physicists of the Former Soviet Union. The suitcase gun-style units are the worst since they are massively inefficient and leave huge quantities of powderized plutonium to "Crap-up" the target and a wide area downwind.

The real action in this theater is behind the act II, next weekend.

On the Sunday News shows expect Tim Russert to pop the $64 dollar question:

Does the US have a retaliatory policy regarding terrorist nukes? Voila! One will materialize, sufficiently vague so as to be worthless.

I hope the admin gets serious and at least lists the retaliation target cities, including our oil "Friends". If they go ballistic and cut off our oil, then we know what they were planning all along. Then we can blockade the Gulf of Hormuz until they rethink things a bit.

Along with some gold, one might want to start looking at some good 10 speed, mountain bikes....with soft saddles, hard tires and a big grocery basket.
(06/10/2002; 20:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77950)
"Don't Worry ~ Be Happy!"
"As I have watched the financial news each morning over the last two years, I have noted a relentless barrage of hype regarding this market. The mantras and the clich�s are always the same. Either the analysts or anchors are hyping a second half recovery or they are telling investors to stay in the market for the long run. Then there has been the earnings game played each quarter with company after company beating or exceeding analysts estimates -- even though business conditions were deteriorating. Nothing has changed since the bull market ended in March 2000. We are still dealing with the Pollyanna effect. There is a natural tendency in Americans to remain optimistic. After all, this is a country where any individual can still rise and achieve their dreams. We all want to believe that tomorrow will be better than today."

Waverider: Another good read from Puplava's "Storm Watch". Don't believe it's been posted...if it is for those of us who missed it.
(06/10/2002; 20:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 77951)
Gold's Correction
One thing I haven't seen posted anywhere regarding the correction is the fact that there is still a huge amount of short gold contracts that have yet to be covered. How low before a few start phase 2 of their covering. My guess not too far from where were at.

For those who are nervous, keep in mind that we still have excellant multi year fundamentals, the miners still haven't covered their hedge books, the derivitives players still have to offset short positions and/or cover leased gold.

With half the world a tinderbox right now, just how low do you think gold can go before just a few of these guys say "it's low enough, I'll cover what I can and take my lumps." It will be the better positioned small coverers first, then it will pick up speed.

No one in their right mind who is short gold under these circumstances is going to wait for sub 300 gold, or gold sideways for a couple months as it consolidates.

In gold stocks, the specialists and marketmakers tripped the sell stops today, so these stocks are now in stronger hands than they were before.

(06/10/2002; 20:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 77952)
On the subject of physical vs. paper
It doesn't matter how much excitement there is over gold stocks going up, if people are not buying physical gold, gold stocks are worthless.
(06/10/2002; 21:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 77954)
the dirty bomb
The guy didn't have the materials to make a bomb, he didn't have a plan, all he has is a big mouth and small brain.
(06/10/2002; 22:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 77955)
The us.$1 past/ present/ future,2276,47890,00.html?Wonder how many Asians will be reading this editorial tonite and the next few days?
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 00:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 78071)
Gold and the Dollar � Now There's a Relationship

I received a phone call from a reporter at another financial Web site who wanted to talk about gold. Specifically, the scribe (can you inscribe in HTML?) wanted to know why its price had risen and whether it was too late to buy. The answers were not simple, but they were direct. The price of gold or any other physical asset can rise if the cost of holding it is less than the expected increase in inflation. Also, the U.S. dollar price of gold can rise simply by an absolute depreciation in the value of the currency: If each greenback is worth less, it will take more of them to buy an equivalent amount of gold. I'm guessing he was hoping I'd say something easy, like "India and Pakistan," so he could get off the phone, but no luck.

Black Blade: Interesting article. Nothing new here, however, I think that the media is starting to catch on.

Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 00:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 78072)
GFMS sees ECB gold sales up by 2005, mine output down

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. June 11 (Reuters) - A reduction in gold mine production by 2005 should be more than offset by more bullion selling from European central banks, yielding a bit more supply in the market by that year, predicted precious metals research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services.

In a presentation of long-term forecasts at the London Bullion Market Association annual conference, held this year in association with the Gold and Silver Institutes, GFMS managing director Philip Klapwijk said he expected 1999s so-called Washington Agreement capping European central bank gold sales for five years to be extended in September 2004. He forecast that official sales would be between 550 tonnes and 700 tonnes in 2005, up from 504 tonnes in 2001.

Black Blade: That the Gold bears at GFMS even admit that mine supply will be lower is surprising. However, increasing Central Bank sales to compensate is not likely in my opinion and even if they do it doesn't matter as it should be very easily absorbed as this hostage Gold is liberated to the people. In light of the Dutch Central Bank's new found affection for Gold, I would say that increased sales by the rest of the Central Bank community is a tall order.

(06/12/2002; 00:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 78073)
Coco - many thanks
To our host USA Gold
, Belgium, Black Blade, Slingshot, YGM, R.Powell and many more regular contributors to this fine forum I wish to say "thank you". During the last three years you have saved me from selling my silver bullion out of sheer frustration when the price never seemed to increase and I never realized it was being manipulated and I have had my holding for 18 years. My knowledge of the metals market is very, very limited and I have learned so much since reading the posts on this forum. I have watched the gold price over this time rise and fall and feel that it won't take off until silver leads the way. Perhaps now with the extreme shortage of silver at the Comex the time is near. I have a news letters dating from 1984 where the silver price was predicted to rise by 800% !!! Another article I have from the same era quotes the Aden Sisters predicting the next run up in the silver price was to $172 per oz. Perhaps you can understand my frustration. When all these predictions come to fruition I'd like to travel the US - meet all you fellas and have a celebration party .
(06/12/2002; 01:07:37 MDT - Msg ID: 78074)
Debt ceiling
---The Senate voted 69-29 to raise the federal debt ceiling by $450 billion, to $6.4 trillion. Treasury had asked for a $750 billion increase, claiming that $450 billion would only carry it through to December. Much more likely, the new ceiling would last until the summer of 2004, just in time for elections. The debt ceiling issue now moves back to the House where the leadership wants to embed an increase into a supplemental spending bill. However, with time running out, the Senate version will likely be the one that stands. Treasury has indicated that the June 2-year note auction (set to be announced June 19) might be delayed if the debt ceiling is not raised in time.---

Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 02:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 78075)
Gold's depressing bull market

SAN FRANSISCO � Bernard Connolly, the chief global strategist and head of research for precious metals, currency and commodity risk manager AIG, left delegates at the LBMA Conference slack-jawed today with a worrying look at the world's future. His disturbing projections left hard-core gold bugs smiling, given the metal's inverse correlation to global political and economic stability. But his forecast bodes ill for a protracted period of uninterrupted economic growth and world peace. Connolly was expelled from his position among the senior currency-policy markers on the European Union in 1995 after he published the book The Rotten Heart of Europe: the Dirty War for Europe's Money. He was also named one of the Wall Street Journal's Europeans of the year for his troubles.

Earlier today he outlined a bleak global future for the world economy, complete with a forecast of the total collapse of the Euro and the European Union, accompanied by widespread racial, religious and ethnic unrest on the continent. His prediction also includes well as an all-out collapse of the Yen and the Japanese economy and the hammering of the dollar. The apocalyptic forecast, delivered in a paper entitled 'Gold: Silver lining to dark economic clouds?', underpinned Connoly's view that the current run in gold was only the beginning of an extended rally for the metal he calls "the least bad currency".

Black Blade: In a word �"GRIM". It must have been one hell of a speech though. We are definitely living in "Interesting Times". As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (why live like an Argentine, right?), and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 03:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 78076)
Should you be buying silver and gold?
Many pros believe precious metals will continue to shine. Here's a primer to help you decide if gold and silver belong in your coffers -- and how to put it there.


When the going gets tough for investors, tough investors go shopping for gold and silver. Thanks to fears of nuclear war, terrorist strikes, inflation and more damage to stocks, investors have rediscovered their love of precious metals and the security they think they find in them.

The stock market weakness and scandals will continue. Many analysts believe investors have moved back into gold and silver because they don't trust the stock market. They blame questions about the strength of the economic recovery, as well as fears of more accounting scandals, and a sense of betrayal after big losses sustained in the tech bubble. "It took 20 years to get to an incredibly overvalued stock market in which investors made all kinds of stupid mistakes," says John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold (TGLDX). "Why should we be off the hook after only two years? We could be. But usually when bubbles break, you don't tidy it up that quickly." In other words, investors who expect more problems for stocks should be bullish on gold and silver because those problems will continue to drive investors to the precious metals.

Black Blade: That this appears on both the MSN and CNBC web sites is an indication that sentiment on Wall Street is slowly changing in favor of the precious metals.

Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 03:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 78077)
PMs Flat, Petroleum Slightly Higher, and USD Slightly Lower
It looks like the calm before the storm. The only real indicator at the moment is the declining market futures indices. Wouldn't it be a kick if Gold and Silver prices launched higher while the LBMA participants were out of touch in transit from the 2002 LBMA conference? It would be fun - Gold analysts and brokers trying to make their way through congested airports and waiting in line for security checks as beads of sweat pour down their faces. It would be fun.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 03:51:23 MDT - Msg ID: 78078)
Asian and European Markets are soaked in a Sea of Red
I haven't seen this much red since the Soviet Union collapsed. It looks downright ugly overseas. US market futures are sinking further.

- Black Blade
The Victorian
(06/12/2002; 04:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 78079)
Another reason for the last POG correction
Since the POG goes up as the dollar index (DXYO) drops, it was necessary to engineer a correction in the POG, and I believe we may see a few more small corrections for the same reason. Gold was already at the problematic 330 level, and with the dollar headed lower, it was necessary to push down POG enough to give the dollar more room to decline without pushing gold over the 330 mark. Today, the dollar is making new lows. If we had been at the pre-correction POG level, we would probably be at $335 POG today. We will probably climb slowly back toward $330, but I suspect there will be continued effort to hold gold back so that the dollar can quietly continue it's decline. The question is, how long will this work until the demand for gold and gold stocks exceeds any of the games the manipulators can play? Gold will then burst through and make new highs.
(06/12/2002; 05:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 78080)
Silver/WRM site
According to the Coeur d'Alene press, the U.S. mint will have no silver stockpiles left within two months. "Legislation before Congress will enable the federal government to become a net silver buyer for the first time in four decades."
"Both Carter and Reagan auctioned silver during the 1979-1980 price runup in order to shore up the treasury and quash the silver and gold markets, which were threatening the US Dollar."

Very interesting to think the U.S. government is after 40 years forced to help our cause. Wonder what would happen if American Silver coins all of a sudden became more popular. Get those orders in early!!
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 05:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 78081)
Euro Rises Above 95 U.S. Cents Amid Concern Over U.S. Stocks∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APQcBJxOXRXVybyBS

London, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose above 95 U.S. cents for the first time in 17 months as concern about falling U.S. stocks and terrorist threats cut demand for dollars. ``There's a huge loss of confidence in U.S. accounting which is leading to massive selling of stocks,'' said Stefan Schilbe, an economist at HSBC Trinkaus in Dusseldorf. That will help push the dollar down to 97 cents per euro by the year-end, he said.

Black Blade: The US Dollar should be falling faster than that. Meanwhile the only currency that has strengthened substantially against the US Dollar is Gold. With both the US Dollar and the Yen crumbling into the abyss, it makes sense for the Japanese to accumulate more Gold. As I look into my crystal ball I see Argentina, then Brazil, then Japan ...... Hmmm....

(06/12/2002; 06:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 78082)
Brahms @ 78070 - Perth Mint
Brahms - Thank you for your post regarding the Perth Mint. I guess my only question (and I am really asking this of the Perth Mint representative you quote) is this:

If every entity that had a certificate of unallocated ownership showed up at the mint one day and asked to see the portion that belonged to them, would any of them have to be shown the same metal twice?


All the auditing means nothing to me, as it only says the numbers work out, or that the performance indicators look kosher. I've no doubt they do.

All the AAA coverage and insurance means nothing to me, since they are only capable of providing cash equivalence, anyway.

But is the metal there like the owner believes it is? And if not, shouldn't the fine print that undoubtedly exists to cover themselves legally be a little more explicit?


Some more questions (again to the mint rep): In your mint and in others as well, unallocated storage does not typically involve storage or fabrication costs, or they are substantially less than allocated storage. (From the Perth Mint web site: "Unallocated Deposits do not attract storage fees or fabrication charges.") Since the only difference, technically speaking, is that allocated storage means I own THIS particular item, and unallocated means I only own that equivalent portion in a pool of these items, it would seem that they still take up the same space, and are still made the same way.

Why, therefore, does the one cost so much more than the other? What am really I paying for in allocated storage? Or what am I not really getting in unallocated storage? If I take possession of my unallocated lot, I will incur these fees at that time. Who has paid for them prior to this? And, why?

What is the advantage to this business model? It makes no sense to make something, and let me purchase it for the conceptual market value of the commodity itself, but not charge me for the real costs of making it into something marketable, or the recurring costs of holding on to it for me. While I will pay these fees, should I take delivery, this contradicts the chief marketing aim of this type of operation -- that being the mint does this for the express purpose of attracting clientele who don't want to take delivery. It just appears to be bad business to pay so much (and recurringly, too!) for something whose profitable transaction is a one-time deal.

So good Brahms, my purpose is not to be provocative, just direct -- and I direct these questions really to Perth Mint itself. Again, thank you very much for posting the information you did.


(06/12/2002; 07:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 78083)
The Victorian on POG correction
I agree with your premise about the recent POG correction. However, I've been debating in my mind whether Louis Rukeyser, in his June newsletter, makes a valid point about the POG. Rukeyser says: "Given all the problems overhanging more-conventional investments right now, one might wonder why gold hasn't done much better in such a made-to-order morass."

I wonder, too. Seems to me the POG should already have passed the $350 level and be one its way to $400. But even insignificant--and false--news from tech companies such as Intel and Nokia, after driving up the Nasdaq by a few points, stunt the POG's progress. I've read many posts on this forum that point out we should be grateful the POG isn't moving up too quickly. And some of you have said $330 is a barrier that provides a "resistance level" that may be difficult to overcome.

That said, and as a follow-up to the previous contest, perhaps this forum should consider a second contest to see who can correctly guess when the POG will reach, say, $350? I'm usually an optimist, but I think this level, after seeing the resistance at $330, will take a (very?) long time to be reached. How 'bout the previous contest organizer? Do you want to set up a new contest along these lines?
(06/12/2002; 07:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 78084)
Brahms (06/11/02; 23:45:08MT - msg#: 78070)
Perth Mint......Is The Gold There or Not...Simple Question, Simple Answer!Thanks for the timely reply to my "Rumor" question below..

""Apparently buyers of gold bars left with Perth Mint for safe keeping have the right to audit at any time. Supposedly a recent audit showed the vaults to be empty. Perth Mint claims that the contract fine print gives them the option to issue a certificate in lieu of the bullion, which can then be converted back to gold at their timing and discretion.""

But all the fancytalk of Insurance, policies and controls etc. does not answer to the question....Is there such fine print as to be able to replace Physical Bullion, Allocated and otherwise with Fiat Moneies or Paper Certificates of
"Any" kind, and if one were to contact Bullion owners with Physical Bullion stored at the Perth Mint would they "ALL" be able to withdraw said Bullion on the same day??

In other words many would like to hear 'for the record' that "ALL" the Allocated and UN-Allocated Gold & Silver Bullion is in fact in the Vaults, and not lent or leased out!...Respectfully.....YGM.

PS: How could a rumor of this nature come all the way from S Africa by way of USA/Canada....My source believes it to have merit. Possibly any Oz depositors reading these pages should immediately ask to see their Bullion ASAP.
Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 07:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 78085)
Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 07:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 78086)
Another one bites the dust.
How 'bout sending this guy and his ilk to Cuba?Top Financial News

06/12 09:40
Former ImClone CEO Sam Waksal Arrested by FBI, Spokesman Says
By Angela Zimm

New York, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Sam Waksal, former president and chief executive officer of ImClone Systems Inc., has been arrested by four agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, a Waksal spokesman said.

Scott Tagliarino confirmed that FBI agents had arrested Waksal this morning but did not say what the charges were. CNBC has reported that the arrest was based on charges of illegal insider trading and that Waksal will be arraigned today.

CM Spin: Pure unadulterated white collar terrorism; he could bunk with Lay.

Gandalf the White
(06/12/2002; 08:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 78087)
Sir Coco -- You are very WELCOME here at the TABLEROUND !!
coco (6/12/02; 00:43:24MT - msg#: 78073)
Coco - many thanks to our host USA Gold.
"When all these predictions come to fruition I'd like to travel the US - meet all you fellas and have a celebration party."
YES INDEED, and the "GREAT HALL" of the USAGOLD Castle will be the location of that CELEBRATION !
Please do not hesitate to post more often and let us know the happenings in your corner of the ORB. Thanks.

(06/12/2002; 08:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 78088)
Perth Mint
I thought about using them a few years ago. You can "supposedly" buy more metal than your dollars will allow and make payments.
The whole thing just seemed a little fishy to me. "If it's too good to be true, it probably is."
Now, a couple years later, I read the first "rumor" that they're just another paper pyramid.

A piece of paper saying you own X amount of gold sure is different than owning X amount of gold wouldn't you say?
(06/12/2002; 08:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 78089)
Perth Mint Post & replies etc....
Causing a stir @ the Neighbouring Castle Hall.....From GE...
@elictricman Perth mint
(markc63) Jun 12, 10:37

I find that very interesting as i liase with a guy here in Aus that has his own gold research website and he sent me an email today stating 'The weekly report will make your knees buckle with info i have found out about Aus gold reserves'.
The report comes out on the weekend and i will post it here when i receive it but putting 1+1 together mmmmmm.

The Hoople
(06/12/2002; 09:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 78090)
C M ; This one bites more than just dust
Adult film actress Marilin Star faces 20 years in prison and posted $300,000 bail for insider trading while she was having an affair with James J. McDermott, former CEO of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Her ill-gotten gains? (strictly speaking trading tips) A measly $88,000. Typical justice, some schmoe gets the book thrown at her while the cabal and the banksters shake down billions. I don't recall anybody at Merrill-Lynch facing 20 years in prison, and the last time I checked Kenny boy Lay freely roamed the planet.
(06/12/2002; 10:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 78091)
Australian Gold Reserves.....
There aren't any right!.....*'The weekly report will make your knees buckle with info i have found out about Aus gold reserves'.....

Sure for some maybe, but others already know Canada, Aus, and NZ all have a peso because the Government sold the Gold....And someday "MAYBE" we'll get to find out just who bought it....Canada has sold close to 750 Tonnes (approx) and just to 'whom' is the mystery.....Now we have currency backed by T-Bills and US Fiat.....Great! The most indebted/over valued Paper on the planet is our Reserve backing....Methinks Canadian Fiat may prosper temporarily as the USD falters, but at some point the world will say resources or no the Canuck Buck is less than airy nothing...
"UNLESS" our Socialists masquerading as Liberals decide to "NATIONALIZE" our Gold Mining Industry in one way or another...Currently and since the 1800's the Royalty on an Ounce of Gold produced in Canada is $2.00...How long will that last if Gold finds a new and extreme value? The over use of environmental laws is and has been seriously curtailing Mining Exploration AND Production for years...Is this a mask/cover for Government interference? The war on Gold has many more facets than most realize....
Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 10:16:49 MDT - Msg ID: 78092)
@sector: USAGOLD78057
Being a shareholder of CEF I called the fund this morning. Now, I do agree that the current price discovery mechanisms for AU and AG do not reflect "market" clearing prices. This fact is to the advantage of those with an opposing agenda. However, I do think it is important to understand the differing perspectives individuals have on current events in the PM markets and this I post for the record.

The fund DID purchase the silver it required. Delivery time HAS increased for delivery of AG bullion. In this particular instance, the sellers are overseas; hence the extended delivery time. Also, the large amount of bullion sought contributed to the time it is taking for delivery. Rest assured, the bullion is enroute. The shareholders of this issue are healthy and whole.

Perhaps I have only underscored your point though I've described the circumstances a little differently? Respectfully yours...CM

(06/12/2002; 10:50:23 MDT - Msg ID: 78094)
@YGM About The Perth Mint and "Allocated Metal" Accounts
The Account is even insured at Market Value TooThe current Perth Mint Depository Services Agreement is specific in it's definitions of an "Allocated Metal " Account:

Clause 2.2
"Precious metals shall be stored by PMDS as Allocated Precious Metals on the following terms:

(a) Allocated Precious Metal is precious metal in a physical form (Bars, coins) purchased by the client from PMDS and lodged in the storage facility. (b) The Allocated Precious Metal shall be recorded in the client's Metal account on the PMDS register maintained by the Perth Mint.
(c) The precious metal shall not be used by PMDS at any time during the storage without written authorization from the client.
(d) Allocated Precious Metal lodged by the client shall be placed in a sealed box at the storage facility and may be withdrawn only on instruction from the client or the client's agent.
(e) A six month minimum storage fee shall be payable in advance by the client for Allocated Precious Metal storage. There shall be no refund of the storage fee on sale or delivery before the end of the storage period. The storage fee shall be a percentage of the US dollar value of Allocated Metal at the time of purchase. Storage charges and payment arrangements shall be agreed with the client prior to storage of the Allocated Metal.
IF there is no metal in the vaults of the Perth Mint, it will no doubt come as a big surprise to Mr. Michael G. Kyle, Manager Business Development and a senior Perth Mint officer and to Mr. Jonathan M. Hamson, Special Representative (Americas).

The above clause 2.2 leaves no room whatsoever for a "No gold in the vault" condition. There is no wording in the Agreement regarding an "Audit".

So, I wouldn't get too worked up about rumors about no gold in the Perth Mint's vaults unless I had possession of the full-length, unedited video that demonstrates it.
Strad Master
(06/12/2002; 10:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 78095)
Carl H
Make of this what you will!I must be EXTREMELY careful about what I write here because I am under court order not to say much about the company you just referred to. I will just say this - You are a VERY wise man to insist on delivery of your purchases from them!
(06/12/2002; 10:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 78096)
Thanks.....for the research...we may have to chase our tails from time to time but eventually we'll catch a rat...YGM.
(06/12/2002; 11:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 78097)
Old News - - - " Gold: Underlying bullishness shines ", Va. (CBS.MW) -- The contrarian case for gold remains strong.

The Hulbert Financial Digest's gold sentiment index currently stands at 29.2 percent. This represents the average gold market exposure among gold timing newsletters that communicate their thoughts daily with their subscribers.

This latest reading, which reflects gold timers' opinions as of the close on Tuesday, means that the average gold timer tracked by the HFD is allocating more than 70 percent of his portfolio to cash.

This index had risen to as high as 45.3 percent in early June, as gold rallied to near $330 --a level not seen in years. But in the face of gold's correction over recent days, gold timers quickly pulled back. In fact, the HFD's gold sentiment index is now back to where it stood in mid-May, well before the latest leg of gold's bull market.

Contrarians interpret this sort of action bullishly, for several reasons.

First, it is a positive sign that gold timers in recent days were so quick to retreat. This betrays an underlying skepticism on the part of advisers, an emotion on which bull markets thrive.

Further evidence of this underlying skepticism: The HFD's gold sentiment index is no higher today than it was a month ago, despite bullion itself being significantly higher. On May 13, for example, June Comex gold closed at $307.60, more than $12 per ounce lower than where it closed on Tuesday.

But perhaps the most bullish aspect of the current reading of the HFD's gold sentiment index: It is not off the charts.

Gold timers went wild every other time in recent years in which gold rose above $300, falling over themselves to jump on the bullish bandwagon. When gold eclipsed the $300 level in early February, for example, the HFD's index soared to 90 percent, more than three times its current reading.

Over the last two months, however, the HFD's gold sentiment index has not even come close to this 90 percent level. Even at its 45.3 percent level in early June, it still was only half the level that in the past has marked extreme optimism.

All of which suggests that the contrarian foundation of gold's bull market remains as strong as ever.

RobotGuy - - - Some of my friends still have the nerve to laugh at me, but most have shut their mouths. I keep telling them buy gold, buy gold stocks, it isn't over, we're just preparing for a real run. Make your money do the work. Oh well, I guess everyone can't gain.

Cheers goldbugs!
Strad Master
(06/12/2002; 11:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 78098)
An odd thing I've noticed., here is the question I was intending to post before I got sidetracked...

Has anyone besides me ever noticed how the POG, as displayed at the Kitco site, often seems to run in two or three day miror images? For example, if the POG goes up it will often go up the next day, and possibly even the third at the same angle with sometimes even the hourly fluctuations being very similar. The same is true if the POG goes down. It almost never happens for more than three days in a row but the two and three day pattern repetitions are so frequent that I don't beleive it is mere coincidence. Today's chart is a good example. Is there something to this? If so, what could account for it? On the other hand, perhaps I'm just fond of seeing patterns.
Carl H
(06/12/2002; 11:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 78099)
Strad Master: Delivery
I belive that we are living in extraordinary times. Prudence in such times require consideration of measures that may be unconventional. Hence, we have:
-opted to take posession of our physical
-placed all our mining stocks held outside of retirement accounts into our names
-Moved all our retirement brokerage accounts our of MSDW (a cabal member) to a small local brokerage house that actually seems to want our business

I will comment that having stock certificates is not that much of a pain. It takes a while to receive them, but according to our new broker, all we have to do to sell them is drive them down to their office and deposit them. Besides, those shares are not available for shorting. Per our broker, stocks in retirement accounts cannot be lent for shorting. (However, I read recently that if a brokerage house itself wants to short a stock, it does not need to borrow it. Can anyone verify this?)

(06/12/2002; 11:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 78100)
@CavenMan You have done exactly what I hoped you would...
..confirmed with CEF management that they acted secure their new silver at current market prices. Of course until it is actually delivered, CEF shareholders are still at risk for loss unless the replacement costs are "Metal in Kind" in the insurance fine print....which I'm sure, from what I've heard, it is.

Still it would be nice to hear again the "Explanation" from COMEX officers as to why they couldn't pony up 6 million ounces from the 34,318,816 "Eligible" ounces listed at the COMEX silver "warehouse" website. It would be even more useful if that explanation could be put in a memorandum, on COMEX letterhead...just for the record.

Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 12:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 78101)
Ha sector.....
I agree! But, we play their game (only one in town) in their house. When does the game change
(06/12/2002; 12:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 78102)
Contest, anyone?

Early this morning, I posted the following (#78083):

"That said, and as a follow-up to the previous contest, perhaps this forum should consider a second contest to see who can correctly guess when the POG will reach, say, $350? I'm usually an optimist, but I think this level, after seeing the resistance at $330, will take a (very?) long time to be reached. How 'bout the previous contest organizer? Do you want to set up a new contest along these lines?"

Is the former contest sponsor willing to step up and start something along these lines?
(06/12/2002; 12:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 78103)
Article might be old news, but I though I would post it in case somebody missed it.

(Hello Stradmaster)

Bill would create new silver market

Strategic stockpile will be empty in two months

Staff writer

KELLOGG -- Legislation before Congress will enable the federal government to become a net silver buyer for the first time in four decades.
The bill sponsored by representatives from three of the nation's silver-producing states, would create a new market for domestically produced silver in government-minted coins. It is good news, if preliminary, for North Idaho mines -- many of which have been idled amid slumping metal markets.
The initiative was prompted by news that the U.S. government's 730 million-ounce strategic stockpile of silver -- accumulated in the years immediately following World War II -- will be empty within the next two months.
Since 1986, the stockpile has quietly walked out of the U.S. Treasury, been stamped into rounds by Sunshine Minting Co. and struck by the U.S. Mint into 1-ounce investment coins - at the rate of about 10 million troy ounces per year.
Since its congressional authorization, the U.S. Mint's coin program has consumed 137.5 million ounces of the white metal. At current consumption rates, the stockpile will be gone by the end of July, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, told The Coeur d'Alene Press.
"With the depletion of silver reserves in the Defense Logistics Agency Stockpile, it has become necessary for the Department of the Treasury to acquire silver from other sources," Crapo said.
The American Eagle program has netted more than $264 million to the Treasury since its 1986 enactment, Crapo said. But now that the government's silver is gone, the Mint should be authorized to replace it from the market.
Crapo said the American Eagle is the world's most successful silver coinage program. It was a creation of then-Sen. Jim McClure, R-Idaho, to thwart Carter and Reagan administration-era threats to dump the entire Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpile of silver on the open market.
Both Carter and Reagan auctioned silver during the 1979-1980 price runup in order to shore up the treasury and quash the silver and gold markets, which were threatening the US Dollar.
Crapo's legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Wayne Allard of Colorado and Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada calls for a continuation of the American Eagle coinage program. It additionally would allow the U.S. Mint to buy silver off the open market "while not paying more than the average world price," Crapo said.
"I feel very positive about this legislation. This is a benefit to the Treasury and to the silver mining industry. The fact that my co-sponsor, Sen. Reid, is Senate Majority Whip, is also encouraging," Crapo told The Coeur d'Alene Press.
Based on the Mint's current consumption rate, the legislation would create a market for 10 million ounces of silver annually - the equivalent of two Sunshine mines.
A Crapo staffer told The Coeur d'Alene Press on Friday that the legislation could contain language requiring the Mint to purchase silver from US refiners, if it complies with current trade treaties.
At current consumption rates, the Mint would need to buy, at the mill-head, about one-fifth of all American silver production.
The legislation, as-yet unassigned a bill number, is printed and will be introduced next week, Crapo told The Coeur d'Alene Press on Friday.

(06/12/2002; 13:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 78104)


Reference: Stewart Bailey's Mining Web article of 6-11-02

regarding Andy Smith's (Mitsui

Metals) proposals at the San


Gold Mining conference on 6-11-02.

No, Andy Smith, the world's gold mines should not shut down

production. The Central Banks should not be the sole
suppliers of

gold for general world demand.


The Central Banks of the industralized and developing

need to increase their gold reserves in order to stabilize

currencies just as a "fly wheel" stabilizes the operation of

gasoline engine.

As YGM pointed out today, New Zealand, Australia and Canada

very low gold reserves. Japan and England have relatively
low gold

reserves compared to the size of their economies. These are

which must increase their gold reserves.

All patriotic U.S. citizens should urge their government to

increase U.S. gold reserves because the U.S. Dollar is the

reserve and reference currency. There is no natural limit
at which the

United States could have too much gold in its reserves.

Increasing U.S. gold reserves serves to strengthen the U.S.D

maintaining its purchasing power. This is in the public
interest and

helps the American consumer buy domestic and foreign goods

reasonable prices.

Exports can be raised, not by weakening the USD,. but by

technology and science into making products more valuable

producing them at a cheaper price. This keeps them

in a positive way.



They do this by:

a. buying all the newly mined gold they can get

b. occasionally purchasing from a country such as
Switzerland that

is not interested in maintaining or expanding their

industrial base

and economy ( such as a developed country like the U.S. , Japan

Germany, England is or as a developing country would be )

No, Andy Smith, let the gold mines supply gold to:

1. the central banks to increase their reserves

2. all other world demand for gold


Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 13:48:32 MDT - Msg ID: 78105)
Late Surge In Stock Market

The late surge into positive territory on Wall Street is due to a "rumor" that Microsoft will beat analysts estimates. Remember that these estimates are vastly lowered over the last three years so it should be easier to beat or meet the "numbers". It is also curious that these rumors should surface in the last half hour of trading. It looks like a real "pump and prime" job.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 14:44:30 MDT - Msg ID: 78106)
New rules would hold CEOs liable
SEC proposal: Make CEOs vouch for company reports


WASHINGTON, June 11 � Chief executives would have to personally vouch for their companies� financial reports under a Bush administration proposal being put forward by federal regulators in the aftermath of Enron's collapse. Companies also would have to make public important changes in their operations much faster and to report a wider group of changes under the new rules to be proposed Wednesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Black Blade: It's good to see that the CEO will have to be certain of the story that is spun to the shareholder. There are too many charlatans in top management in corporate America, and too many plunder the company for personal gain. Supposedly at 5pm ET on CNBC, there will be a segment on this subject.

Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 14:47:20 MDT - Msg ID: 78107)
"Temporary" countries eh?
Top World News

06/12 15:56
Bush Considers Backing `Temporary' Palestinian State (Update1)
By Paul Basken

Washington, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush is considering backing a ``temporary'' Palestinian state as a step toward a final peace agreement, Secretary of State Colin Powell told Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat in an interview.

Bush previously said he supported a Palestinian state alongside Israel. A temporary, transitional state would help build international confidence in the ability of Palestinians to govern themselves, Powell told the London-based daily newspaper.

``It has to be a state that has good governance, that there's transparency, that there's no corruption, that the security organizations work well,'' Powell said. ``And if you can put all that in that kind of a state, it will become more efficient and it will help us develop the confidence that is needed between the two parties to move forward.''

CM comment: "good organizations work well"...:Can you name a country, any country that meets these criteria? I really like Mr. Powell but I for one wish it to be known that I am paying attention and, I believe that words do mean something!
Broken Tee
(06/12/2002; 14:48:51 MDT - Msg ID: 78108)
Thanks BB
Thanks for the Microsoft update. I was wondering what caused the 100+ jump at the end of todays session.
(06/12/2002; 15:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 78109)
USA Nat Debt per Person vs Canada per Person.... NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 12 Jun 2002 at 08:46:11 PM GMT is: 6,093,378,422,328.80

The estimated population of the United States is 287,507,752
so each citizen's share of this debt is $21,193.79.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1,111 million per day since September 28, 2001!


Canadian National Debt....$547,400,000,000.00
Citizen's Share of Debt....$17,611.00

Only $4,000.00 less p/person than the USA....
And we have approx 1 Million oz of Gold left in the Gov. Treasury, vs a the (?)'reported'(?) 8,000 +/- Tons of US....
(06/12/2002; 15:11:46 MDT - Msg ID: 78110)
Thom Calandra's Report...{F9697F3B-D1D5-415A-878A-05166DD5832D}Excerpt:

As Wall Street and Main Street investors suffer gaping losses on stocks of all stripes and colors, gold mining shares have risen 100, 200 and 300 percent since January. The money those stocks gave back to the market earlier this week, as gold's price slid $8 or so to $320 an ounce, seems merely to have whetted the appetite of gold's strongest believers.

"I think today was a great buying opportunity for the gold stocks, the first good chance to buy that we've seen for some time," longtime gold industry analyst and newsletter writer Robert Bishop was saying at the conference, just after North American mining stocks, and the gold price, reversed course and headed higher. "There was a serious washout in many stocks early (Tuesday), and strong recoveries as the day went on."

Bishop's Gold Mining Stock Report, perhaps more than any other investment newsletter in North America, has forged an enviable track record at choosing winners among the smallest gold producers and explorers, most of them scraping dusty pits in South America, Canada and across Africa and parts of Asia.

"Gold could prove me wrong, but my guess is that (Tuesday) was the best day to spend money on gold stocks that we have seen in some time, and perhaps the best chance we'll get for some time to come," said Bishop, who was, like everyone else, listening to every word on that London Bullion Market Association stage in California. "The fund managers who are underweight in the sector -- in other words, most of them -- have been looking for an entry point, and with end-of-quarter coming up, they need to show some of these names on their books."

To be sure, many of the 350 delegates at this bullion gathering were praying, pleading, willing gold to go higher. "This is a time of change, change in markets, change in supply," said Wayne Murdy, chairman of chief executive of the world's largest gold miner, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile). "Fund managers are interested in different asset classes."

(06/12/2002; 15:20:35 MDT - Msg ID: 78111)
Possible Silver Squeeze?
Oh Happy DayCentral Fund's of Canada Buying $50 million in PM's.Three months.
U.S. Treasury Buying silver on the open market. Two months.

Are industrials that use silver in manufacture going to buy this month before a rise in the POS?

Just the mention of not being able to cover the order should cause some to jump ahead.

Fe Fi Fo Thumb, I bought some silver.
Do you have some?

Gold right next to silver in the display case. :o)
Gandalf the White
(06/12/2002; 15:20:54 MDT - Msg ID: 78112)
Jimbo's Questions !!
Jimbo (6/12/02; 12:28:27MT - msg#: 78102)
Contest, anyone?
Sorry Jimbo, I was taking care of some sick Hobbits and missed your early posting and just now caught the re-post.
The simple answer is that USAGOLD Contests must have a specific ending time and price source, so the WINNERS can be rewarded with the "SPOILS". The "open ended" time period Contest goals like identifying the date of an certain action occurring is totally unknown, and that occurrence MAY EVER happen. For example, say that in 1980 that the Hobbits had a offered a "MILLION US$ PRIZE" Contest to guess the date and time that Au touched $1,000. per ounce an the London "AM" Settlement. IF they would have taken a single $1. as an entry fee, they could have all retired over the 20 + years, just from the interest earned on the entry fees. We still await THAT WINNING date and time, YES ?
So, let us think of "closed end" types of goals to use in CONTESTS. Perhaps ANOTHER Essay Contest, where the deep thinkers are task with a conundrum ? Suggestions ?

(06/12/2002; 15:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 78113)
Perth Mint... Miner49er and YGM posts
I have inspected the June 2001 accounts of the Perth mint.

At that date they had a negative! stock of bullion (less than zero) and were short approx. A$200,000,000 bullion.

All the unallocated bullion purchased is leased to its subsidiaries and joint ventures as working capital. This is 'guaranteed' by the West OZ Govt.

So unallocated bullion investments are in effect low interest loans to the businesses of the Perth Mint and its partners. The Govt. guarantee means that these investments are 'paper' subject to the same risks that other bullion traders taking short positions in the markets endure. A sudden big increase in the Gold price would cause the Mint to show a big loss and it could not produce the Gold without money from the Govt and its insurers.

Allocated bullion is not included in the accounts so I cannot tell if they are secure.
2002 accounts out in a month or two.

I will be doing more research and asking them questions. All your suggestions and comments welcome...

(06/12/2002; 16:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 78114)
Perth Mint
Letter to the Mint...
Dear Anita
I have inspected the June 2001 accounts of the Perth Mint.

At that date they had a negative! stock of bullion (less than zero) and were short approx. A$200,000,000 bullion.

All the unallocated bullion purchased is leased to its subsidiaries and joint ventures as working capital. This is 'guaranteed' by the West OZ Govt.

So unallocated bullion investments are in effect low interest loans to the businesses of the Perth Mint and its partners. The Govt. guarantee means that these investments are 'paper' subject to the same risks that other bullion traders taking short positions in the markets endure.
A sudden big increase in the Gold price would cause the Mint to show a big loss and it could not produce the Gold without money from the Govt and its insurers.

Allocated bullion is not included in the accounts so I cannot tell if they are secure.

When an investor buys bullion Anita it is because they are expecting paper market failures and possibly huge changes in the gold price over short periods. When they discover that all the unallocated bullion is leased out and there is nothing (actually less that nothing at June2001)
in the kitty it makes them very nervous indeed.

The PerthMint needs to urgently look at the huge risk it is taking by leasing out everything in the kitty at this time. Gold could erupt anytime leaving the Mint with huge losses and unable to produce investors metal. The Govt guarantee is a paper one! Paper is not bullion and can
never substitute for it. When the Gold price is rising, prudence should dictate that the Mint should retain a large proportion of the bullion in the vault and not lease it out.

Can you tell me please how much is the current short position of the Mint and how much unallocated bullion is retained. I would like to see an auditors report in the 2002 accounts commenting on any risky short
position that the Mint has. I would also like to see an auditors report on the allocated bullion in the Mint.

Gold bugs are a close knit community linked by the Web these days and can quickly ferret out and assess risk. They like to see prudent policies by their bullion dealers and will be very concerned if the 101% lease out ratio is being maintained by the Mint. Risks in paper markets are perceived to be huge at this time by Gold investors. Govt
guarantees and insurance policies are paper.

Looking forward to your reply
(06/12/2002; 16:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 78115)
Excellent Detective Work.......With all your hard work you may prove I wasn't chasing my own tail after all....You may have a "Tiger by the Tail"
Mayhaps the Perth Mint is also in the process of re-stocking the larder....Way to go Brahms....Your info has been forwarded to GATA.......YGM.
(06/12/2002; 16:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 78116)
rogue trader alert trader pleads innocent
Rusnak accused of hiding $691 million to maintain salary


BALTIMORE, June 12 � A currency trader pleaded
innocent Wednesday to federal charges that he
fraudulently hid $691 million in losses to
maintain his six-figure income at Allfirst
(06/12/2002; 17:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 78117)
A pastor that is actually helping his congregation...a feel good story ! best story of doing well by our fellow man I have seen in awhile.
(06/12/2002; 17:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 78118)
u.s dollar past /present/future,2276,48094,00.html?Asian "are" getting the picture!
(06/12/2002; 18:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 78119)
sector, please have another look at some dusty old words saw your comment today to Cavan Man (# 78100):

"Still it would be nice to hear again the "Explanation" from COMEX officers as to why they couldn't pony up 6 million ounces from the 34,318,816 "Eligible" ounces listed at the COMEX silver "warehouse" website."

Not long ago I offered some simple commentary that I'd hoped would put an end once and for all to all of this rampant misconception about "eligible" stocks belonging to the Exchange. Hear me now, people: "COMEX owns no metal."

Granted, my post was focused on Gold the Exchange's "warehouses," but you can surely expand the thought to see your way clear on silver, too, I hope.

Here's my bit of community outreach for the day. Rather than waste this precious space again, I've found where the post is in the archives at the attached link. Scroll down to this one --
Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - msg#: 77498)

Afterwards you should have no problem impressing your friends and families with your thorough knowledge of the meaning of "eligible" and "registered" COMEX ounces -- none of which belongs to COMEX, nor is it necessarily on the block for potential physical settlement of contracts.

Teach a man to fish...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
(06/12/2002; 18:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 78120)
Twilight gold Plus Stock Drop Manipulation
They're at it up during day then if you have Level II you could see the pattern develop after NY gold close

Large sells at lower and lower prices....hmmm...someone knows something

Well...look at the twilight time of so called Illiquid trading period...sudden drop of gold by two dollars ...then the lower trading level is picked up and gold continues low

Today's sellers IMO were apparently informed of "planned" drop in twilight gold....they can then pick up stocks prices lower tomorrow or next day or so ...their reward for having helped add to concern that gold is dropping when Overseas looks at the two stock sell-off despite good gold day....then the sudden low volume period drop and gold falls

Getting to be repetitive...yet is still working!!!!For Now!!!!!
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 19:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 78121)
U.S. Regulators Back $300 Mln Upgrade of California Power Line∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APQdevRTFVS5TLiBS

Washington, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. energy regulators approved a $300 million project to ease congestion on a California electric transmission route that's been blamed for some of the blackouts during the state's power crisis last year.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said the project, announced by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham in October, will bring more power to the northern part of the state. The California Public Utility Commission had requested that the project be rejected because state regulators haven't shown it's necessary. ``The need of this line has been made and proven,'' FERC Chairman Pat Wood said at the commission's meeting today.

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers are in denial, but they had better get crackin�. I talked to a friend in the energy distribution side of the business earlier today. He is of the opinion that California will be in serious trouble next year because they have squandered an opportunity to build additional power generation and transmission upgrades. I have to agree. That is human nature though � hiding ones head in the sand when danger signals are seen and hope the problem will just go away. Thankfully the state is in a severe recession or else they would be experiencing blackouts like last year.

(06/12/2002; 19:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 78122)
Getting the Gold Message Out....
I've pondered Uponroof's message of last week re: his spreading the word about Gold to various other cyberspace investment groups - it's very worthy work. In the same spirit, I have started to provide comments to authors of the news items that are posted here. For instance, Sourdough's posted article on the US dollar provides a great opportunity to reply to the author about the implications for Gold. I took opportunity to do that, as well as invite him to visit this discussion forum for more information (and included the link). It's easy as most authors invite feedback at the click of a mouse. MK mentioned recently how much time is spent by the media debasing Gold - I say let's not let them get away with it without a challenge! I would encourage everyone here to respond to these articles to support Gold, defend Gold, and most importantly to educate those who are writing for the mainstream media. Now, time for a beer! Cheers,
(06/12/2002; 20:00:57 MDT - Msg ID: 78123)
New contest suggestion

Gandalf the White, an essay contest might be appropriate. My suggestion for a topic would challenge the historians among us to compare the 1979-80 period with today's gold bull. Perhaps an appropriate essay title would be, "Gold Bull 2002: 1980 Imposter or The Real Thing?" What think? Anyone?
(06/12/2002; 20:08:27 MDT - Msg ID: 78124)
AIG Does a Shape-Shift in the GAMMA Quadrant [AKA San Francisco]

>Gold's depressing bull market---The Mining Web
By: Stewart Bailey
Posted: 2002/06/11 Tue 18:00 | � Miningweb 1997-2002

SAN FRANCISCO � Bernard Connolly, the chief global strategist and head of research for precious metals, currency and commodity risk manager AIG, left delegates at the LBMA Conference slack-jawed today with a worrying look at the world's future. His disturbing projections left hard-core gold bugs smiling, given the metal's inverse correlation to global political and economic stability. But his forecast bodes ill for a protracted period of uninterrupted economic growth and world peace.

Connolly was expelled from his position among the senior currency-policy markers on the European Union in 1995 after he published the book The Rotten Heart of Europe: the Dirty War for Europe's Money. He was also named one of the Wall Street Journal's Europeans of the year for his troubles.

Earlier today he outlined a bleak global future for the world economy, complete with a forecast of the total collapse of the Euro and the European Union, accompanied by widespread racial, religious and ethnic unrest on the continent. His prediction also includes an all-out collapse of the Yen and the Japanese economy and the hammering of the dollar.

The apocalyptic forecast, delivered in a paper entitled 'Gold: Silver lining to dark economic clouds?', underpinned Connolly's view that the current run in gold was only the beginning of an extended rally for the metal he calls "the least bad currency".
"Only the beginning"

My, My, My! What a turnaround for the AIG gold predators who have been seen smashing gold in the COMEX pits so many times in the past.

This forcast from a sometimes cabal member is a seismic event reverberating through the walnut panneled halls of the LBMA. Hmmmm. better squeeze some more coins into the old sock drawer.

The stuff about the EU is interesting insofar as the Germans seem to be resurrecting the Deutschemark in out-of-the-way, local trading. It probably came from mattresses.
@Aristotle...My quotations around the word "Warehouse" in my previous post was to emphasis what you have so eloquently said several times. Namely that the "Warehouse" of the COMEX is really a just listing of commercial metals users warehouses including bank vault and armored car security holdings that, of course, belong to other people and not the COMEX. Their IS a "Window" of sorts at the COMEX, as Bob Chapman has recently written about, where one can get precious metals spot deliveries albeit only through great masses of red tape. Still it would be nice to actually SEE the beautiful .999 ounce forms of metal from the many COMEX licenced providers. It's a good thing the COMEX doesn't put those pics on their website...might spur demand and we can't have THAT.

If CEF had advertized they would pay $6 per ounce for 6 million ounces of silver their phone would have run off the hook and the 186 tonnes wouls have been delivered yesterday.
(06/12/2002; 20:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 78125)
Perth Mint
If one visits the Perth Mint to watch the gold pours,
(follow the gunned up uniforms) one may sight a glass partitioned room filled with stamping machinery etc
that is keeping a number of employees rather busy in weight training. On the tables through the processes one
will spot enough shiney metal moving through the production line to initiate spontainious heart arrhythmia!.
The refinery smoke stack by the international airport is also constantly huffing and puffing away at speed.
I wonder where it all goes!. hehe; I bet if two people came in to ask to see their Gold they would be shown the same piece; not because its not there but because I couldnt be bothered wandering out the back to rummage through the tonnages to find something that is made perfect exactly like the others.
Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 20:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 78126)
Now, I'm not trying to stir anything up but I do think it telling that an entity (CEF) was able to purchase 6mm ounces at or below spot relatively easily aside from the wait on delivery. That's a lot of ag.
Cavan Man
(06/12/2002; 20:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 78127)
FT just getting the word out.
This is old news here and at other gold forums.Banks say Nikkei was manipulated by Japan
By David Ibison in Tokyo
Published: June 12 2002 21:58 | Last Updated: June 12 2002 21:58

The Nikkei 225 benchmark index was subjected to a series of measures in the run-up to the end of the financial year in March that were designed to ensure it closed above 11,000 points, say senior international bankers interviewed by the Financial Times.

Although government agencies insist their aim was only to enforce the law, bankers believe there was a widespread fear in government circles that there could be a "March crisis" as a result of depressed stock prices.

Observers have long suspected that the market was being manipulated. Overseas speculators with short positions were thought by officials to be responsible for the downward pressure on the market. Masajuro Shiokawa, finance minister, said in March that the market had become a "gambling den" for foreign speculators.

The bankers believe the government initiated a process known as gyosei shido - or administrative guidance - in order to ensure the market closed above 11,000 points, which was considered the safe level at which the banks and companies could avert damaging losses.

In the run-up to the end of the financial year, the Nikkei was struggling at about 9,500 - a level that threatened to push some companies into bankruptcy because their huge securities portfolios had to be booked at market value.

The bankers believe the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the main regulator, with the encouragement of the government, implemented carefully timed measures to curb short selling and halt the market's decline.

They say this involved a drip feed of regulatory penalties, and additional reporting requirements on short-sale supervision. There was also a new "uptick rule", which made it impossible to sell short in a falling market.

They point out that almost every overseas investment bank was penalised by the FSA for illegal short-selling ahead of the March 31 year-end. They claim these violations were almost always technical rather than deliberate.

Allegations of any kind of guidance are denied vigorously by the FSA and the Securities and Exchange Surveillance Committee (SESC), a division of the FSA. They say significant violations of short sales regulations indicated action was needed.

The FSA points to cases such as that of Goldman Sachs which was found to have conducted 2,368 illegal short sales despite having been instructed in 1998 to tighten controls. Morgan Stanley, it alleges, violated short-selling rules and manipulated the share price of one company.

"We could have waited if things had not been so serious," said an FSA official. The official added that the market went up for one simple reason: the news that Japan's economy may be entering a cyclical recovery based on a strengthening US economy.

(06/12/2002; 20:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 78128)
I wholeheartedly support the need to expand gold information to as many mainstream areas as possible...something which we all can contribute to in our own way

I've been writing on Motley Fool as well as Raging Bull re different articles and results and alternatives facing us

Also if you have non-gold may be useful to write to them...I have one subscription of a widely read stock letter and have asked them to include three times weekly update on Precious Metals....they have mentioned gold favorably so now maybe with a little hint or two they will make it part of their regular updates

Also I have a long list of people who are on mailing list for gold info...and some have bought and are becoming supporters

Another option is to write to editorial page of local is much more likely that media on local level will pick up well thought out pieces.

By the way...I am reading "Gold Wars" is really excellent....could be the basis for many editorial writings.

I now have an even better appreciation of the importance of our battle as well as how the paper "money" has led to so many of the world problems past and current...and unfortunately future, if change does not occur

We truly are in WWIII....the outcome of which will determine whether we are more fully enslaved to paper and the corresponding financial/corporate/political deceit/greed and destruction which it breeds... or build a prosperous world and culture of respect and opportunity which has a solid foundation of honesty and trust based on gold and silver rather than fiat "money"

As the author notes: "With honest money, people will have confidence in the future efficacy of that money. But it is necessary that they take destiny in their own hands ......and study monetary archaeology" ...with knowledge I believe as Ferdinand Lips that people will choose gold as being most beneficial and trustworthy.

Now the challenge is to spread the message in whatever way each of us can....just my take
Chris Powell
(06/12/2002; 21:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 78129)
Audio of GATA Chairman Murphy's speech at Vancouver conference of GATA Chairman Bill Murphy's speech at
Vancouver gold conference:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
turkey hunter
(06/12/2002; 21:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 78130)
Received the gold today
Just got my golden prize in the mail today. This is the first time I ever saw a Swiss 20 Franc. The date is 1930. I was wondering whose picture was on the coin. Looks like it
represents the Helvetii people. I found some info:
Helvetia , region of central Europe, occupying the plateau between the Alps and the Jura mts. The name is derived from the Roman term for its inhabitants, the predominantly
Celtic Helvetii, who were defeated (58 B.C.) at Bibracte by Julius Caesar.. The Helvetii later prospered under Roman rule; their achievements are evidenced by the remains at
Avenches. Helvetia corresponds roughly to the western part of modern Switzerland, and the name is still used in poetic reference to that country and on its postage stamps.

What is really amazing is the picture of the person on the coin. Take away the long hair he looks just like me.

If anyone knows more about the coin I would like to know more about it.
Thank you USAGold

(06/12/2002; 22:00:39 MDT - Msg ID: 78131)
Test. Thanks, Randy.
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 22:17:55 MDT - Msg ID: 78132)
Value of an ounce of gold, a gentleman's suit?

HONG KONG, June 13 (Reuters) - In days past when exchange rates were stable and inflation was low, the purchasing power of an ounce of gold was said to be the cost of a gentleman's suit or a dinner for two at a good restaurant.

Black Blade: The word about Gold is getting out to the rest of America. Tonight I had a discussion with an elderly neighbor. We discussed Gold and he said "isn't that a bad investment?" We had discussed Gold and the place of Gold in ones portfolio and the counter cyclical nature of hard assets in periods of economic distress.

(06/12/2002; 22:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 78133)
The Believer....
are ya still w/ us....The thought police circling your house yet? Hope you're still pumped for the Knox Knocking Petition? Randy will give you my email, I've got others interested w/o trying...
Black Blade
(06/12/2002; 22:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 78134)
Gold soars while markets fall
As the stock market falls, the price of gold is rising


At times of market instability, when investors are looking for safer places for their money, gold appeals because its price moves so independently from stocks and bonds. The price of gold depends on supply and demand, the US dollar, inflation and interest rates. As a result, gold can be a way of hedging your bets and diversifying a portfolio, providing a safe haven for cash in leaner times. Rhona O'Connell from the World Gold Council explained why the price of gold has been rising so steadily. "Demand has been outstripping supply for the last four years." "It performs well against currency risk and particularly when the dollar is under pressure"

Black Blade: The article also comes with a nice photo of Gold. The point of Gold ownership is that it is a form of portfolio insurance. At these prices, it is still quite cheap.

(06/12/2002; 23:11:37 MDT - Msg ID: 78135)
Perth Mint and an Apology
I have spoken to the Perth Mint regarding my earlier posting and investors need have no concerns about bullion investments.

Both allocated and unallocated bullion do not appear on the balance sheet. All investors bullion is kept in the Mint and NONE of it is leased.

The leased bullion on the balance sheet is the working capital of the Mint used for its businesses.

The Perth Mint assures me that it is in business to look after its investors, their bullion is completely safe, and the guarantees provided by the West Australian Government are of AAA quality.

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 00:01:30 MDT - Msg ID: 78136)
Financing of US debt not sustainable: report,2276,48094,00.html?
Reversal of capital inflows into US from Asia could precipitate a crisis


(SINGAPORE) The United States, by far the largest indebted nation in the world, is being bankrolled by thrifty Asian savers like Japan, China and Singapore. But this is unsustainable and a threat to financial stability, says a report by the New Economics Foundation (NEF), a radical UK think-tank. Savings trends in Asia will decline as its middle classes consume more and a reversal of capital inflows into the US could precipitate a financial crisis or a sudden crash like in Thailand or Mexico.

Black Blade: Interesting article. Not as radical as some think though.

(06/13/2002; 00:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 78137)
Hey Brahms
I've been around the block a few times, I have a keen business sense, and I really gotta hand it to ya. You've done a masterful job of smacking us all with your shameless promotion of the Perth mint cleverly disguised as your own incompetence. Good god, man. I mean really... have some pride. Be a stand up guy and dance with what brung ya... stop snapping your fingers under the nose of your host. I can assure you I've received nothing but exceptionally professional service from these fine folks and they deserve better than what you're dishing out on behalf of their competitors. I can tolerate a lot of personal abuses but as a businessman this sort of disrespect REALLY pisses me off and I can't stand idly by as a witness to this mugging. I don't give a goddam what hour it is, when I'm done with this woodshedding I'm phoning Randy to suggest that you be weighed, measured, and if found wanting, cast back into the moat.

If it were up to me to dole out penance I'd have you parade back and forth across the entry to the Perth Mint wearing a sandwich board extolling the virtues of USAGOLD.

Sheeeeeeeeeeesh!!!! Whattabunchafreeloadinggoodfornothings!

Respect. Show you some. --- Aristotle

Whew! That felt GOOD!!
Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 00:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 78138)
Gold jewellery in Mumbai has much less than 23 carats

Be watchful of the jewellery you buy in Mumbai. What most sell contain far less than the claimed 23 carats - it ranges from 18 to 22.5. And in the process you lose anywhere between Rs. 600 to Rs. 1000 per 10 gm. That is the finding of the Consumer Guidance Society of India after testing 16 pendants bought from different shops in the city.

Black Blade: A lot of crooks in the jewelry trade. Of course in the west we have jewelry store that sell jewelry of questionable value as well.

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 01:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 78139)
Dollar Firms Despite Stock Drop§ion=news≠ws_id=bus-n12457368&date=20020612&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, reviving from a fresh 17-month low against the euro hit overnight as traders took a break from months of relentless dollar selling to take profits on the European currency.

Black Blade: The US Dollar is recovering some due to intense buying of dollars and selling of Yen. Looks like Gold could retest the $315 an ounce level.

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 01:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 78140)
Tokyo's Nikkei Ends at 2-Month Low

TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo's key Nikkei average closed at a two-month low on Thursday, with a dive in brokerages such as Nomura Holdings leading a broad-based decline as jitters ahead of settlements of equity derivatives weighted on sentiment. Friday's special quotation (SQ) fixing for settlements of June Nikkei options and futures could induce volatility, while growing pessimism over the sustainability of Japan's export-led recovery kept investors from entering the market, analysts said.

Black Blade: The Japanese government has been busy buying dollars and selling Yen with virtually no result. The result is a complete loss of consumer confidence and lack of buying on the Nikkei � in short, the Japanese investors ain't buying it. Look for the Nikkei to sink below the 10,000 level.

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 01:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 78141)
Bank of America Lays Off 575 Workers
Bank of America Lays Off 575 Workers at Wichita Regional Call Center


WICHITA, Kan. (AP) -- Bank of America will layoff 575 workers in Wichita at its regional call center by mid-August, saying the Internet and other technologies are making the center's customer service jobs obsolete.

Black Blade: That's progress. These nonessential "Bankers Bones" are off to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 01:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 78142)
Credit Suisse to Cut 500 Jobs

No. 2 Swiss Bank Credit Suisse Announces Further 500 Job Cuts

Black Blade: Not a good day for bankers. More off to the "Bone Pile".

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 01:54:55 MDT - Msg ID: 78143)
Dynegy to Cut Unspecified Number of Jobs

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Beleaguered energy marketing and trading company Dynegy Inc. (NYSE:DYN - News) said on Wednesday it expects to announce soon an unspecified number of layoffs.

Black Blade: Enron is to the energy industry what Bre-X was to the Gold industry. Natural gas companies look to take a beating for a while. In the meantime, they will contribute to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 01:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 78144)
Economist Tells House Panel Overvalued Dollar Hurts Trade

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- An economist told a congressional panel Wednesday that the value of the U.S. dollar must be lowered, saying it is having a negative impact on trade. Lawrence Chimerine, who runs an economic consulting firm, testified before the House of Representatives' Small Business Committee, which held a hearing on the effect of the dollar's value on small exporters. In written testimony for the hearing, Chimerine said the impact of the overvalued dollar is "especially devastating" to small manufacturers and farmers....

Black Blade: As I have been saying for some time now. The overvalued US Dollar must be lowered even if the Japanese don't like it.
Black Blade
(06/13/2002; 02:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 78145)
Japan gold investors shrug off geopolitical fears

TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Nuclear brinkmanship on the Indian subcontinent. Suicide explosions in the Middle East. Fears of "dirty bombs" wreaking havoc in downtown Manhatten. At times like these, it's only human to feel nervous. And if you're a jittery investor, you go out and buy gold.

Flash back to February, when angst over the state of Japan's rickety economy and banking system helped to push gold above $300 an ounce for the first time in two years. Retail investors in Japan, panicking about a looming end to guarantees on bank deposits, bought a staggering 47.5 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of calendar 2002, almost four times the level a year earlier.

Gold buying by ordinary Japanese -- prodigious hoarders, with per-household savings averaging about 14 million yen ($111,800) -- has tended to jump after high-profile bankruptcies, such as the failure of the Long Term Credit Bank in 1998. Various disasters have also triggered bullion buying. In 1995, sales hit 139.1 tonnes after a devastating earthquake struck the western city of Kobe and a doomsday cult unleashed sarin nerve gas in Tokyo subway trains. In all those cases, the crises were close to home.

Black Blade: The times are changing. The lessons of Argentina are not likely lost on the average Japanese when they are concerned about an insolvent banking sector and with bank insurance guarantees on all deposits