http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19565-2002Aug31.html

Snippit:

BEIRUT, Lebanon �� Muslims everywhere should withdraw their money from U.S. markets because those funds may be frozen or confiscated, Lebanon's top Shiite Muslim cleric said in a sermon. Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah also warned worshippers gathered for Friday prayers in a Beirut suburb that a possible U.S. attack on Iraq was designed to assert America's control of oil in the Middle East and elsewhere. Fadlallah's sermon came days after a lawyer for 700 relatives of Sept. 11 victims filed a $1 trillion lawsuit against the Saudi and Sudanese governments, as well as members of Saudi royal family, banks and charities. It contends that they financed the plot in which some 3,000 people died. "We must change our mentality in the political, economic and security dealings with America, especially by withdrawing Arab and Islamic investments in America because new laws there have started to represent dangers of freezing and confiscating under decisions resulting from Sept. 11," Fadlallah said.


Black Blade: Middle Eastern Arabs would be smart to cash in and take their funds out of the United States. In the current anti-Arab environment it is a sure bet that the lawsuit will be found in favor of the plaintiffs. The risk of staying invested in the US is extremely high, especially in a country that keeps people incarcerated incommunicado without access to family and lawyers, held under "secret" charges in solitary confinement, not informed of what the charges are, and without due process. Yeah, if I were an Arab investor I would bail out of the US faster than one could turn an oil spigot. The risk is very high that Arabs will have their investments stolen by the US.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,61797,00.htmlRobotGuy - this one's for you! :)

"After driving stocks higher late last year on hopes the economy would bounce back from recession, investors sensed by this summer that something was awfully wrong. They pulled $50 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds, a record withdrawal that sent the market into a horrific drop.

People are now waiting for the economy and corporate earnings to improve before jumping back into the market. They refuse to be sucked into believing Wall Street cheerleaders who say that a half dozen consecutive quarters of lousy corporate results were simply a speed bump. The betting is stocks may stay in the dog house at least through the end of the year because corporate profits will not be strong enough to pull the market higher. Despite having constantly misjudged corporate America's profitability for more than a year, analysts who "need" to be bullish still haven't removed their rose-colored glasses. They're running with the bullish herd, projecting a tremendous recovery in the second half.

But the trouble is that consumers have now mortgaged themselves to their eyeballs, even after losing $7.8 trillion in stock-market wealth. In the rush to refinance mortgages, people are cashing out on the fast-rising values of their homes, sucking out the pent-up equity so as to keep spending on stuff. The big question is: with so many people tapped out financially, will they take their game ball and go home or continue single-handedly to keep the economy afloat?"

Will someone please open the door for "HYPERINFLATION" to come in ! Thanks.
The global stock markets did a nice job in having absorbed and canalised the confetti-bergs. Real estate was co-operative but to a lesser extend. It was a very narrow form of asset-inflation (stocks). This love affair is over and something else "must" be inflated, NOW ! All currencies will have to show their "real" intrinsic worth and their real purchasing force. High noon for the final unmasking of the floating confettis. Watch that CRB-index, running for its first attraction-point of 233 (Fib.number-humhum).

Whatever the outcome on the ultra cheap desert-oil...it is and will be *oil*, that is going to shake up all those mis-managed and falsified currencies. Time out for no profits/unserviceble debts and cooked books. The euro currency must appreciate against the dollar to soften the coming, rising, oil bill. This is even more important for the nearby future of 3,6 billion people in China and India.
Note that the Nikkei-index is reaching its final support on 9.500...where hell will break loose.

Don't get fooled by the ridicule interest rate show ! It is "the system", trying to bail out the system (D.Noland).

*Forced*, Unilaterism of the US on the desert-oil-policies, is evidence of the difference in currency ($/�) management and vision.
The dollar-block, rather wants to admit that there is something growing like a "Gold dinar" (J. Wanninsky) than admitting an euro/oil/gold concept !!! Fun.

The whole future of EMU (succes or failuire) is based on the euro's fundamentals. Purposely kept silent for the general public.
If latinam adds some additional 'dollar-break-away ' pressure...the past hidden currency depreciation, will find its inflation in resources, at last !

The globe is going to bill the US$ for the past (and future) delivery of REAL goods and services ! And it is going to be a gigantic bill. A temporary decline in POO (no war or postponement) will not change a iota to the above basic course that has been put on the rails. An occupation of Iraq's second biggest world-reserve of "cheap" oil will make things even worse . Escalation of the ongoing.
Don't count on the Russian oil-oligarchy to be accomodatif.

The only alternatif is to recognise, at last, the utmost importance and value of cheap oil for peacefull prosperity and stability. This has (will have) a much higher price than has been paid for, during the past 30 years. Cheap oil always wanted to be rewarded with equal "value". Be it Gold or a Gold related currency ! TG/FOA/A has it right from A to Z !

With the POO at 30$/34$, the globe panicked ! All, present, political statements on oil delivery (availability) are an exercise in geopolitical dansing. Cheap desert-oil and expensive Caspian (plus other) oil want (demand) a REAL currency in exchange for the precious black. The medieval management and pampering of oil potentates is over. Real things are "increasingly" demanding REAL rewards. Efforts to push Nigeria out of OPEC, failed. Even potable water will become very expensive, sooner, rather than later.

The past week was an important one. The US was explicitely isolated by Euroland on its oil policies. Step by step, TG's scenario (theory) is materializing. And so far, I don't see any deus ex machina that could change this, drastically. The US's ruling dynasties are to face "systemic" (structural) confrontational conflicts. Old laws are no longer as evident as before. The www has surpassed the controlled (outdated) media-spin. The US$ is facing a WW-III. Afraid that not many options are left open for a peacefull happy ending ?

Soon, your Gold coin will buy what your paper can't anymore.
Paper will burn (is burning) and Gold will glow.

Holiday thoughts - rooting through a second hand bookshop, I turned up a copy of Baedeker's Londres 1888 and on the first page find:

"The Bank of England issues notes of 5, 10, 20, 50 pounds, etc. which are not welcomed everywhere, with the result that one [tourists] should prefer gold coins. It is wise to note the numbers of the notes that one is carrying in order to be able to block their payment at the bank, in the case of loss or theft."

A good class hotel was 10s per night, while the carving table at Simpson's of the Strand(still open today) was 3/6, and a cutlet or piece of roast meat in a sandwich with a glass of beer eaten standing up at a luncheon bar (trying to come up with the Victorian equivalent of a Big Mac Combo) was about 8d (probably cheaper as Baedeker wouldn't have recommended places like McD's to its readers).

Given that a sovereign was 1/4 oz of gold, I calculate that at $310/oz, these prices would have been:

the hotel room $39, the top-class restaurant $13.60 and the snack $2.60.

Granted, there has been some shift in relative prices - Reading Boswell's London Diary of 1762 and what is striking is how much transport costs have gone down relative to accommodation- the coach journey from Edinburgh to London cost almost 6 months' rent, but a simple example like the above shows that gold is seriously undervalued relative to its purchasing power in 1888, or is a suite at the Pierre going to cost $40 any time soon? If we regard London of the time as a 3rd world country, we should perhaps compare with hotel rates in a place like India - e.g. the best suite at the Oberoi, Delhi - $150-200?

On this basis, gold would have to rise 3-5x to restore 1888 PPP, or conversely, paper money has stolen 60-80% of the purchasing power of gold over the last century. We evidently can't stand another century of this.

Any thoughts?

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/index.html?sidenav=frontSnips:

U.S. Economy Growing Too Slowly to Reduce Unemployment, Reports May Show

Bank of England May Keep Rates at 38-Year Low After Slump in Manufacturing

European Investors Hang Onto Bonds on Evidence Global Growth Is Faltering

and lets not forget Japan eternal recession and Latin America economic turmoil

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/business/yourmoney/01WATC.htmlSnip:

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON


Millions of investors rushed into the stock market in the 1990's, believing that Wall Street was at least a fairly level playing field. Although they have since learned how illusory that notion was, the myth of democracy on Wall Street took a real beating last week.

One look at the Salomon Smith Barney documents detailing its allocation of initial public offerings, subpoenaed and just released by Congress, showed individual investors why they couldn't get the hot stocks that raced skyward during the mania. Ahead of them in line at most big firms were grasping executives who had a far greater chance of bagging hot stocks because their companies were paying investment banking fees to the firms doing the doling.
What the firms were really dispensing was free money. That is because the firms bringing shares public routinely and excessively underpriced them. An analysis by Sanford C. Bernstein & Company in 1999 showed that the median underpricing of initial offerings, which had been less than 5 percent in the early 1990's, rocketed to 30 percent that year.

That represented a heap of money left on the table by companies selling stock. It now appears that brokerage firms used this pile to reward already wealthy executives whose companies were, or might become, their customers.

How big was the honey pot? Figures from Thomson Financial put the first-day gains in new telecom shares issued from January 1999 to January 2001 at $9.6 billion. In telecom stocks alone, brokerage firms had almost $10 billion to divvy up among their "best customers."
...........
That there was a gross misallocation of capital into telecom during the mania is painfully clear. Too many companies were funded and too many failed. The human cost of this misallocation is also large. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the job outplacement company, reports that 504,000 telecom jobs were eliminated in the 19 months through July. This year, telecom companies account for 23 percent of all jobs eliminated in the United States.

It's worth wondering if that pain would have been smaller had these companies taken into their coffers some of the money they left in Wall Street's trough. Perhaps more of them would have made it and fewer jobs would have been lost. Instead, the bulk of that $10 billion honey pot went into the pockets of the "best customers" of Wall Street.

***********
Misetich

"Best customers" "industry practice" "perfectly legal" - as Barron's Abelson wrote this week - its Wall Street Brothel

There are more than just a few rotten apples in the barrel-

Got gold?

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/business/yourmoney/01VIEW.htmlSnip:

By DAVID LEONHARDT
You almost wonder whether Wall Street's economists were competing with their colleagues in equity research departments to see who could make worse predictions.

While the analysts were saying early last year that the stocks of Enron and the telecommunications sector were undervalued, the economists were forecasting that the country would escape recession. Whenever bad economic news emerged, many economists pushed their rosy predictions a few weeks into the future. Few acknowledged the recession until it was nearly over.

Now the economy is looking weak again, and the forecasters have assured us that growth is going to pick up soon. Is there any reason to believe them?

Based on history, the answer is no. As a group, Wall Street economists have failed to predict any of the three recessions in the last 20 years, according to records kept by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Hidden in the economists' forecasts, however, is a little-known economic indicator � call it the Anxious Index � that has been an impressively reliable warning light for recessions. It deserves to steal some of the attention from the oft-quoted prognostications of imminent growth.
..........
The handful of accurate forecasters came almost exclusively from boutique firms or college campuses, and this is probably not a coincidence. Like stock analysts, economists at big banks and brokerage firms have a financial incentive to predict good times. The profits of their companies � and thus some of their own pay, which can reach seven figures for chief economists � depend on people's confidence and their willingness to buy stocks.

Given these conflicts, the steady predictions that the economy will grow by an annual rate of about 3 percent in coming quarters deserves about the same consideration as the constant chorus of "buy" recommendations on stocks.

James E. Cayne, chief executive of Bear Stearns, acknowledged as much while testifying two years ago during a trial to determine whether the firm should repay a client who lost millions of dollars based on its poor currency predictions. Economists "don't really have a good record as far as predicting the future," Mr. Cayne said. "I think that it is entertainment," he said, referring to their work.
.........
Enter the Anxious Index.

In addition to keeping track of the forecasts of economists, the Philadelphia Fed asks them near the middle of each quarter to estimate the odds that the economy will shrink over the coming year. The economists give a percentage for the current quarter and each of the next four.

The magic number for the Anxious Index seems to be 30. When forecasters think that there is a 30 percent chance that the economy will shrink in the coming quarter, a downturn usually follows. "When we're up in that range, it really means a recession could happen at any time," said Dean Croushore, an economist at the Philadelphia Fed.

(To take a look at the index, type in http://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/prob.txt and check under "Mean Probability of Decline in Real G.D.P." The fifth column from the left covers the quarter after the survey.)
............
So what does it say these days? After jumping to almost 32 early last year, shortly before the recession, it remained high until this year's second quarter, then fell to about 14. It moved to 18 in the most recent survey, reflecting the summer's weak spending and stock market declines but still not suggesting that a double-dip recession is likely.

Think of the Anxious Index as a translator for those relentlessly bullish Wall Street forecasts. Right now, the economists appear to mean what they are saying.
********
Misetich

Wall Street economists cannot and should not be trusted - Wasn't Sir Greenspan one of them at one time? and still is...

Sir Greenspan claimed he couldn't prevent the bubble as millions of investors etc etc yet - Sir Greenspan a former (present?) member of the Wall Street Brothel lowered interest rates in '98 when the economy was red hot (to save a few cronies at LCTM) and fuelled the Nasdaq late '99/2000 rush with a gush of liquidity and he has preached the "new economy" and "productivity miracle" -

Should (can) Sir Greenspan be sued for costing (robbing) investors worlwide trillions of $?

Little difference exists between the likes of Sir Greenspan, O'Neil, Rubin etc and those of the Wall Street Brothel - they have an incentive to predict good times and as such continuously mislead investors and the public

More than a few rotten apples in the bushel -

Got gold?

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-energy-venezuela-opec.htmlSnip:

By REUTERS

Filed at 6:41 p.m. ET

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Saturday his country firmly opposed increasing OPEC oil output quotas, and he added the majority of the oil cartel's other members shared this view.
..............
``The information that I have up to now is that the majority of (OPEC members) agree to maintain current production levels, including Saudi Arabia,'' Chavez told foreign reporters at a news conference.

``That is the opinion of the majority and our own opinion on the matter is very firm,'' he said, speaking before flying out of Caracas to attend the Earth Summit in Johannesburg.

Several ministers from the oil cartel have said they see no need to raise fourth-quarter output, although a senior OPEC delegate has said more crude is required to meet rising demand. Increased OPEC supply would cool off oil prices, which last week tipped $30 a barrel for the first time in 18 months.

OPEC insiders and oil analysts have reported that Saudi Arabia, the cartel heavyweight, has been pushing for a production increase.

But President Chavez, a price hawk and champion of OPEC unity, was adamant on Saturday that neither Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, nor OPEC as a group would decide to raise output quotas at the upcoming Osaka meeting.

Asked whether his country, which is facing mounting fiscal problems and a shrinking economy, would comply if OPEC did agree to increase production limits, Chavez replied:

``I prefer to say that OPEC and Venezuela are not going to increase (their production).''
........
``There are no elements of any weight that justify an oil production increase,'' Chavez said.

He cited analysts' forecasts reporting that an expected pick-up in the world economy, which would fuel oil demand, was proving to be slow.
**********
Misetich

The continuous war mongering of Cheney & Co are maintaining
oil prices higher due to a "war premium" and the likelyhood of much higher oil prices is a certainty -

Does not augur well for a global economic recovery- and the stock markets

Got gold?

The present "price" for the "valuable" precious yellow is in the ban of the *FLOATING* currency power-circus !
Trying to find a present or future, convenient/justified, price for Gold, is not on the order of the day anymore.
It is the orderly chaos of the floating currencies that is bothering this economical world. There is an urge (invisible desire) for a kind of "backing" of the confetti as to be used for temporary storing of wealth and correct measurement for exchange/trade of real goods and services.

Same effort/work/sweat, to be exchanged for a standard, Big Mac, everywhere . It is the false perception that the US$-currency is "THE" standard (reserve-currency), that is soon to be put into serious question, all over the globe. You certainly know the many reasons "why".

The question today, all over the world, is now : In what do I store my wealth and keep it as powerfull as it is today ?
Now, give me or yourself an answer to this seemingly idiotic question. The past prosperity wasn't based entirely on our entrepreneurship but on permanent depreciation of the currencies in wich we "price" things. With taxing and re-distribution as the legal confiscation by the collectivity. We succeeded in broadening prosperity with the false premisse of easy/easier, confetti availability.
Hoarding and storing, growing wealth, was/is considered counterproductive and disturbing. This cannot go on for, indeed, an other century.

Someone, somewhere, sometime, must and will start the introduction of "another" standard to replace/displace the falsely percepted US$-standard (notes / coins / virtual digits). The floating circus, makes it impossible to refer to old prices and simply adapt/correct these prices. The 1880 hotelroom has no value relation with today's Oberoi-room, where the factor "crude oil" is making the difference. Spend a night at Oberoi in Kathmandou and make an inventory of crude's derivates in it. During the period you are referring to, resources (real tangibles) were backing the recipients for settlement (fiat). This relationship has completely disappeared nowadays. Our currencies are referring to nothing anymore. They will keep on floating for as long as perceptions, allow them to do so.

Decimating stocks, almost zero IRs, indirect (subtle) taxation on tangibles and last but not least, easy money adding to the debtbergs...leaves us with no choices for having our wealth, safely stored. The house in wich you live is a constant consumer of increasing amounts of confetti to be generated by its owner (the bills and taxation). Therefore, ones property is not what it used to be as a store of wealth. Real estate is not compensatory for the rapid loss in purchasing power. Today's households "need" double income for keeping up all appearances.

This must and shall ultimately lead to a financial (monetary) collapse or a gradual shift into a reserve currency with real standard allures, widely accepted. The euro has this ambition, but can't make it without Gold AND oil ! But first we have to agree that the dollar failed.
Gold will revalue to such extend, proportionate to the degree that we accept the dollar's failure. That is a "process" and not a pure mathematical matter with a preset timing.

The value of the remaining oil-reserves, the unoverseeable debt-masses and the insane easy money policies of the dollar(reserve)block, are moulding on this financial/monetary process as pandemies did their devastating job in the 19th century. For the dollar to survive, it must conquer the whole world and 6 billion people with it. Difficult job to complete succesfully, isn't it ? Today we are living with and within fierce currency wars with one dominator so far.
Euroland (EMU) already stopped this unproductive and exhausting currency competion on its own small territory.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2002/nf20020830_0302.htmSnip:
All of this could have serious implications for economic recovery. Consumer spending on goods besides cars -- which are selling briskly thanks to 0% financing and other incentives -- is projected to barely rise in the third and fourth quarters, after adjusting for inflation. That means other sectors of the economy, especially business spending on equipment and inventory building, will have to kick up a notch if the economy is to maintain the 3% annual rate of growth it has enjoyed in the past three quarters.

"There hasn't been a recession or depression where the consumer hasn't cushioned the downside and restrained the upside," says Steven Wieting, senior U.S. economist at Salomon Smith Barney.

OVERCROWDED SHELVES? For retailers, a consumer pullback during the crucial back-to-school period could mean a very unmerry Christmas. Because stores order goods up to a year in advance, it's hard to switch gears if demand slows. In recent months, retailers have been rebuilding inventories based on earlier predictions of a robust second half. In fact, in July, store inventories, excluding cars, were up for the third month in a row -- something that hasn't happened since mid-2000.

But if demand doesn't accelerate for apparel, personal computers, and compact disks, retailers may find themselves with overcrowded shelves during the holiday season. The result: profit-killing discounting and promotions. Marc Gerstein, director of investment research at earnings tracker Multex.com, reports that in the past month, analysts have adjusted their third-quarter earnings estimates downward for retailers more than twice as often as they have raised them.
*********
Misetich

US recovery has "stalled" for 6 out 7 quarters in a row -and the worst may just be around the corner -
In the weeks ahead it appears that layoff announcements will pick up speed as earnings pre-announcements continue -

ANOTHER leg down for the US economy - global economy - stock market - bond investors -

How long before we see a bank derivative blowup?

Got gold?

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2002/nf20020830_4805.htmSnip:

Now, Spitzer is going after Citigroup (C ), its investment bank, Salomon Smith Barney, and its CEO Sandy Weill. At issue, controversial former SSB analyst Jack Grubman, who changed his recommendation on AT&T in November, 1999, from neutral to buy. Citigroup won a $10.6 billion deal to underwrite AT&T's tracking stock in April, 2000, and Grubman lowered his rating months later.

Weill has been drawn into the controversy because he sat on AT&T's board at the time. AT&T was subpoenaed on Aug. 23 concerning the investigation.
............
Q: Ultimately, Merrill seems to have gotten off with little more than a small fine. That's what analysts speculate will happen with Citi, too.
A: It's too early to say, but keep in mind the $100 million that Merrill is paying is only a fraction of what they will pay in [lawsuit] settlements in the next few years. The market cap took a huge hit.

And some of the conflicts that have been revealed have had a real negative effect on the balance sheets of these financial-services firms. One of the consequences [of the conflicts] may have been misguided loans made to investment-banking clients.
Q: You can't help but wonder where the bank regulators were in all this. Though bank balance sheets are healthy, the banks certainly took on some serious reputational risks.
A: There have been several lapses at least. The internal compliance departments at the firms have been absent, the regulators from the SEC to the OCC [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] to others have not been visible. [We need to rethink] how we examine the banking system.

Q: Any suggestions?
A: No, I'm going to stick with what I know here.

Q: One could infer from the Merrill settlement that disgorgement -- getting investors' money back, by, for example, establishing restitution pools that companies must pay into -- isn't one of your priorities.
A: I'd say stay tuned.
********
Misetich

Worth repeating.......

Quote
A: There have been several lapses at least. The internal compliance departments at the firms have been absent, the regulators from the SEC to the OCC [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] to others have not been visible. [We need to rethink] how we examine the banking system.
End of quote

Got gold?

Second NOTICE to "Lurkers" !HEAR YE, HEAR YE !!!
September is hereby declared as the USAGOLD Forum's MONTH of Celebrations !! The Castle decorations have begun and the music (under the direction of PH in LA) is warming up.
BIG plans are being finalized in the Throne Room and the SECOND call for ALL LURKERS to Read the "Forum Decorum Rules", and make that FREE REGISTRATION request to obtain posting privileges, has sounded.
WHY all the hoopla and hustle bustle, one asks ?
Could it be the Celebration of the Forum's forthcoming Fourth Year Birthday ?

YEP ! AND, the rumor is that the Castle's Treasury Vault is overloaded and that true WEALTH will be shared amongst the Goldhearts of THIS Castle.

First will be a GOLD PRICE SETTLEMENT Contest, with REQUIRED statement of thought on a specific question.
(Watch for the announcement soon.)

THEN after the end of that Contest, "THE BIG CONTEST" will cap off the MONTH. Details of "THE BIG CONTEST" will be announced my SIR MK himself. (However, rumors are that preliminary historical hints may be leaked from the Tower.)
<;-)

http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=969962002(scotsman, 1 Sept 2002) -- THE cry of the old City hands in the dying days of the last millennium was that the Square Mile was populated by youngsters who had never seen a bear market. Today the complaint is that the investment houses are full of youngsters who have never seen a bull market. It is now 30 months since the pin of reality touched the balloon of inflated share prices and the long bull run ended. A bear market is defined as a 20% fall, but we have now had that and had it all over again to put us in double-bear territory.

And during that slide in share prices, City houses have cut their cloth to suit today's straitened style. The old hands remain because it is they who are doing the cutting, but the thirtysomethings that arrived on the post-yuppie wave are being edged out and replaced by even younger equivalents on much-reduced salaries and promises of bonuses based on improbable performance.

----------------

With the proper use of gold you don't have to be an active gamer or risk your stakes with a rookie.

R.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2002/nf20020828_0019.htmSnip:

Little-noticed changes in the ways banks indemnified their lending risks during the 1990s have left huge loans in the portfolios of bond mutual funds and hedge funds -- loans that are turning out to be far more volatile than anyone expected. Many of them were concentrated in the troubled telecom and energy-trading sectors. While the loans' losses don't come close to those experienced in the stock or high-yield bond markets, pressure could rise to require more disclosure to investors of the terms and conditions attached to company debt.
..........
As the 1990s progressed into the New Millennium, an increasing amount of that borrowed money came from banks. In 1991, a total of $234 billion of syndicated bank loans was issued, according to bank-loan information company Loan Pricing Corp (LPC). In 2000, issuance peaked at $1.2 trillion before slipping back in 2001 to $1.1 trillion.

That amount outpaced corporate-bond issuance, which totaled $879 billion in 2001, according to the Bond Market Assn. In the first half of 2002, $527 billion in bank loans were granted, far outstripping bond issuance.
................
INTRICATE COVENANTS. The syndication process also has some drawbacks, however. First and foremost, it seems to have allowed higher-risk companies to obtain more debt than they could have otherwise, increasing the potential for defaults and bankruptcies down the road. "To the degree that you can diversify risks, then credit becomes more widely available," says John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investor Services.

Indeed, the amount of "leveraged," or below-investment-grade loans, has made up an increasingly large percentage of total syndicated loans over the past decade, according to LPC. Bank lending is still very dependent on relationships between the lender and the borrower, so these loans are often structured much more intricately than stock and bond offerings, including little-known covenants that don't need to be reported in financial statements.

Several of this year's high-profile bankruptcies were triggered when a company failed to meet a specific hurdle, and its bank loan or line of credit was suddenly withdrawn. At Pacific Gas & Electric, banks withdrew financing when the utility's debt rating was downgraded, causing it to default on its bonds and notes. Some of the covenants are equivalent to telling a homeowner that if he or she loses his or her job, the mortgage must be repaid in full, says Lonski.
............
DISAPPEARING EQUITY. Inflated equity markets also encouraged more lending, points out Lonski, since many companies could boast low debt-to-equity ratios -- even though they were losing money. "The gross overvaluation of U.S. common stock made it possible for companies to take on so much debt," says Lonski. Corporate debt outstanding as a percentage of the market value of stocks in the first quarter of 2000 was actually quite low -- just 28%. In contrast, in the third quarter of 1990, debt totaled 94% of the market value of common equity, says Lonski.
..........
Most of the fixed-income community is quick to point out that so far in this recession, debt losses have been minor compared to earlier cycles. Of course, if the economy deteriorates and syndicated bank loans trigger more bankruptcies, investors will be less forgiving. For now, the process of syndication, which allowed banks to lend risky companies huge amounts of money, is one piece of the New Economy puzzle investors should understand - - and watch closely.
**********
Misetich
The worst is still to come from the bubble burst - and it won't be long before a bank derivative blow up occurs

Physical Gold shines the most during turbulent times - Get some

Got gold?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_36/b3798008.htmSnip:

The most pressing of these problems are the scandals rocking Wall Street. It's starting to look as though the very model of the financial conglomerate is fundamentally flawed. Sprawling institutions such as Citi, J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, and others are riddled with conflicts of interest, compounded by abuses by aggressive bankers. Consider how banks and brokers have used loans as loss leaders to win lucrative investment-banking assignments or how they have cobbled together dubious structured-finance deals that have helped corporate clients mask their true condition. Or how research analysts at some firms have hyped the stocks of banking clients to investors even as they disparaged them in private e-mails. In the latest revelation, Citi's Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) investment-banking subsidiary gave telecom CEOs preferential access to shares of hot initial public offerings that could be flipped in hours or days at great profit. All of these schemes were designed to lock in fees at the expense of smaller shareholders who, in many cases, were stuck holding worthless securities.
............
It is far too early to write off Weill, but his personal vulnerability to the reform movement now rolling over Corporate America was underscored recently when Spitzer broadened his investigation of SSB to include the Citi CEO. The immediate issue is whether Weill pressured star research analyst Jack Grubman to upgrade his rating on AT&T from "neutral" to "buy" to help SSB win a lucrative underwriting assignment from the telecom giant in 2000. Weill declined to be interviewed, but a Citigroup spokesman says that he never told any of SSB's research analysts what to do and that any suggestion to the contrary is "outrageous and untrue."
.........
Weill did not begin to answer his own challenge publicly until after Citigroup was raked over the coals at a Senate hearing into Enron on July 23-24. Members of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations accused both Citi and J.P. Morgan Chase of helping Enron to mask its deteriorating finances by arranging $8 billion in "pre-pay" transactions--loans artfully contrived to look like commodity purchases. Internal e-mails obtained by the committee seemed to show that SSB bankers allowed Enron to improperly account for one such 1999 financing in order to keep $125 million off its books.
...........
Misetich

Citi - JP Morgan etc. represent a portion of a whole bunch of rotten apples in the bushel - and the worst is still to come for them

Got gold?

http://www.ocregister.com/business/boyd0901cci.shtml(Universal Press Syndicate -- September 1, 2002)

Price-earnings ratios on stocks seem to have nowhere to grow and are prone to rising interest rates if the economy picks up steam. Plus, a strengthening dollar could depress the overseas profits of globally oriented U.S. firms, putting a damper on earnings growth. "There's nothing the economy could do to make me consider the S&P 500 a good buy here," says Ben Inker, asset-allocation director of Grentham, Mayo, Van Otterloo.

---------

Smart investors know the government will not sit idly while the economy weakens and slides down a hole. The government players will TRY to do SOMETHING. They have the ability to print, and they will throw new money at the problems, in effect forcing everyone to contribute to a more evenly shared loss, spread through inflation. This is a primary reason why investors continue to shift their portfolios in favor of gold. Call Centennial next week for assistance with your allocation.

R.

Several years ago I read that one of the things that brought down Ancient Rome was an annual inflation rate of 3% that continued for a hundred years. In another place, previous to that, I encountered the information that throughout human history it has been the case far more often than not, that when a person bought a new home, he could rely on its value declining from the time that he bought it, not increasing. From this it may be surmised that ours are not ordinary circumstances, and, further, with some imagination perhaps, that conditions which prevail now are not coincidental or accidental or incidental but managed, controlled, even contrived for this very purpose, namely, to increase the wealth of some at the expense of others. Not to mention living off the rich land of North America and aggressively expanding without regard to desireable objectives for more than five hundred years, as our people have now done. Sorry, but once I evaluate the reliability of a source, I have seldom made a practice of retaining it. I may change this habit. But at this point that is how it has been.

http://www.sunspot.net/business/bal-te.jobs01sep01.story?coll=bal%2Dbusiness%2DheadlinesSeptember 1, 2002
AP WASHINGTON -- Many Americans this Labor Day are thankful just to have jobs.

...The list of large employers seeking bankruptcy protection is formidable: Kmart, Polaroid, Enron Corp., WorldCom Inc., US Airways and more. Companies recently announcing layoffs include American Airlines, Charles Schwab, Williams Cos., Coca-Cola and Nokia.

--------------

You can almost hear the printing presses rolling out their "solution" for this pesky economic illness.

Gold is your immunization against the ill-effects of their "cure".

R.

The present PP of Gold is quasi in line with the "official" COL (cost of living). Official, that is completely falsified. This falsification increased gradually over the past decades. In Euroland the COL-index, excludes energy and many other heavely taxed items as sigarettes and other items that are cataloged as basic needs (rights). These falsifications are absolutely necessary to hide the real COL and to prevent a faster currency depreciation through what is commonly called, inflation.

The COL-index has also been strongly moderated by the recycling effect of taxation reaching maximums. Production of real goods/services in places where currencies have depreciated to very little purchasing power and highly exposed to continued, rotating competition pressure.
No better example than goldmining that is done in countries where there's even not enough to print the virtual worthless confetti.

How can we possibly guess the real price and in what currency for any given product, with all these falsifications still going/growing strong/stronger ?

With a POO above 30$, all transport in Euroland stopped and desert oil advised us to lower taxes (75%) on the refined, rather than accepting the social implications (humhum) of a higher POO ! Now what will happen to the whole of price-structures when POO goes from 30$ to 100$ in the not too distant future ? Time out for any kind of falsification and day of reckoning. Chaos and panic. Unmanageble crisis situation on a global scale and the real meaning of hyperinflation will become clear. Financial collapse wich cannot be overcome with a general devaluation but simply by abandoning the old confetti to be replaced with a new one. It is the POO that can speed up the slower detoriation proces of the debt-growth.

The above very likely evolution doesn't give us a clue on the future purchasing power of Gold in numerical certainties. How will the debtbergs be erased or melted ?
How "hyper" will inflation be as to keep things moving or bluntly re-started ? Can an emerging new reserve-currency
be referred to the old ones (x times PP)?
How much default will be tolerated in proportion to devalued (hyperinflated) roll overs ? How much volume on production of real goods/services will be left in proportion to the new volume of new (revalued) currency (currencies) ? Financial collapse and its consequences (psychological impacts) are not to be calculated in advance.
Can the Argentina aftermath serve as a model of what might come ? But we will not be dealing with a local currency with limited impact but with "The" reserve currency, the US$ !

In chaos and panic, Gold's purchasing power is to be trusted, because it will have broken FREE. Free to protect and save. Reconsider its 25 fold revaluation within 10 years (1971 > 1980). Today it will be a multiple of those 25 times. It will not only compensate for lost purchasing power but will be FREE as to prevent the same mismanagement of the past. Free to signal that Gold Holders TRUST OR DISTRUST the rulers, any rulers.

A further prosperity contraction and giving back on what was (falsely) acquired, will not be tolerated by the general public. Even if it was possible to manage such a transition period as interlude for a relance. There are not enough alternatives to replace substantial amounts of crude oil. Even very expensive crude. There are still enough reserves of oil to discourage the intensive research on alternatives (fuel cells and other). And who is going to pay for such a vast renewal on infrastructures. See what happened to the web and telco's.

Today I received a colorfull invitation for attending a national investors symposium. Guess what is pictured on the frontpage...wafers of Gold bullion ! This with only one Gold advocate out of the seven top analysts/speakers (financial koelies).

Leigh (09/21/99; 18:32:38MDT - Msg ID:14075)
O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore

We assemble together this evening, attired in festive garb and chattering excitedly as the celebration begins. It is the first anniversary of our beloved Table Round. Torches cast a hazy golden glow throughout the Hall, and we see that much care has been put forth to make our meeting place lovely and inviting. As we look around, we see faces unfamiliar to us, and yet...curiously, we feel a deep sense of closeness to one another. Excitement builds as we introduce ourselves, and hugs are exchanged. We laugh happily as we hear cries of: "You're just the way I imagined! How delightful it is to meet you at last!"

Our host motions us to the Table, and we take our places. We can see our group as a whole now. There are old friends and new ones, very distinguished guests and happy-go-lucky souls. It is a group that anywhere else might seem incongruous, but we hold each member dear. Our talk becomes subdued as we keep an open ear for the voice of our host. At last he rises and says, "Forum members, I have a most wonderful surprise for you this evening! May I introduce to you, Sir FOA!" We stare at the door in open-mouthed expectation, and a smiling gentleman walks in. He grasps the outstretched hands of those whom he passes, and walks to the head of the table. "Thank you, Mr. Kosares," he says. "I am honored to be here tonight. It has been a most interesting year, and I have enjoyed sharing it with all of you. But I did not come alone this evening. I have brought with me a man who has a strong love for mankind, one who holds much wisdom and a deep sense of honor. I am proud to be called the Friend of ANOTHER!" We Forum members jump to our feet as Sir ANOTHER enters the room. We cannot seem to stop applauding as we gaze upon the kindly face of the one whose thoughts have inspired and guided us for so long.

Our celebration lasts for many hours, yet each moment is touched with a sense of magic. We who entered the Hall as strangers have become the very dearest of friends. Throughout the past year, we have shared each other's concerns, suffered together, helped one another in our quest for knowledge. Daily we learn more about each other. We admire strengths and have compassion on weakness. Tonight we have much to celebrate, and it is to our USAGOLD Forum fellows that we instinctively turn. The lure of the mighty Table Round is overwhelming. It keeps us up late at night, and it beckons us in our sleep. We happily obey its call, knowing that our Forum friends are always glad to hear from us. May there be many, many more years of comraderie for us all at the Oaken Table of Yore!
===
Note: -- This deep thinking and heartfelt posting from Lady Leigh was one of the first entries in the FIRST USAGOLD Porum's "Birthday Contest".
Getting the picture ?
<;-)

I must believe that someone (besides me) is buying silver futures and thinking about taking delivery. It is the absolute sharpest tool available to pith the CABAL.

I could sure use some advice on taking delivery - pitfalls etc. Anyone have a thought on this or maybe a good site?

How about taking possession in another country? Since trust is earned and dishonesty yields paranoia, this seems reasonable to me at this time (things have really slid a long way for parinoia to seem reasonable).

MOVERMEG

I tried last year to obtain a loan to buy 1000 ounce silver bars. I found a refining source that had bars for sale at an incredibly good price but they would only sell to dealers or banks who held an account with them. Neither of the two banks the refiner mentioned would consider loaning money for silver to be held in the bank as collateral for the loan. The bank investment officer said no amount of downpayment was sufficient as the bank no longer dealt with metals at all.

However, I'd be willing to bet M.K. could broker any amount of silver you wish to buy, delivered to your door. I don't work for CPM and can not speak for them but delivery of metal to clients is their daily business. It seems logical to speak to them. Delivery off Comex requires you to make arrangements for pickup and transportation to wherever you wish to keep your stash. Or, you can "take" delivery from Comex in paper form while storing your silver with them. Comex may end up as the "sellor of last resort" as silver supplies are consumed. The supplier of the round silver blanks needed for the government's coin program has begun to build inventory even though official government buying is not scheduled until next year. I doubt that this silver will come from Comex but this is just my opinion.

Note to CPM- Please e-mail me if you would like more information concerning my source of silver bars. I've no idea if you already broker through them and it's none of my business but if my information can help, it's your's for the asking.
Rich

Thanks for responding. I appreciate everything you told me.

I am thinking out loud here, but lets say I have silver futures contracts covering 100,000 ounces (20 contracts) and say silver was up to $6.00 or $7.00 by the end of the contract. Now, I can liquidate and take profits or since my basis is in the $4.70 range, I would have some working room to purchase the physical.

If I buy physical in that quantity, I would like to disrupt the COMEX supply as much as possible (boy, if I ever hit the lotto, silver would spike for a couple of days).

It seems as though my next step is to find a bank willing to help me make the purchase.

Perhaps Michael K. can help me out?

Again, thanks for your help.

MOVERMEG

I like your thinking of taking supply off Comex and often wonder why someone of means (big money) doesn't initiate a squeeze on the shorts. That it hasn't happened begs the question, "Is our fundamental analysis- that silver supplies are dangerously low- correct? Why hasn't the market already reacted even without an increase in manipulated buying?" I've some theories but no facts.

I don't believe the different world silver exchanges reflect the POS according to the law of supply and demand at this time. When they do is when POS will rise. Many analysts believe that the spot price may have to actually exceed the exchange price to awaken the market players to the fundamental facts. If this condition happens it will not exist for long as any such price divergence will bring in the arbitrage money immediately. But, this event will shock the market and prices much higher in the blink of an eye. I am holding futures positions and have considered how to deal with them if this scenario occurs. Emotions will run high when POG and POS run much higher. Emotions and trading are like drinking and driving- not a good combination! Comex has placed a clause in small print limiting their obligation to delivery of 7.5 million ounces in metal form per month. That is, they have granted themselves the option of fiat settlement if necessary beyond this limit. Comex is a paper game with paper rules. It offers potential leveraged profits along with risk, especially for those seeking physical delivery. However, beware that it is (imho)presently a small, thinly traded, easily manipulated casino but with the potential for the dealers to lose control.

I wish you good luck with your purchase. Consider the ability to resell your purchase when considering what form of silver to buy or hold physical forever and let the futures' profits supply the fiat. That's my dream. Do you now hold futures?
Happy holiday
Rich

Question answered.
I see in 84113 that you did say that you have futures. Perhaps a call and some questions to your broker could answer the logistics involved with taking Comex delivery. Now, at $6-7.00/ounce but bought at $4.70 some contracts could be offset for the fiat needed to take delivery of the rest.
I'm curious. If you find out about delivery procedures, please let us know. I've no clue but do know it can be done.
Rich

NEW YORK -- Global collaboration among JP Morgan's top analysts shows that gold producers
lightened their hedge books by 365 tonnes, or 11.7 million ounces in the half year to end
June; equivalent to a little under a fifth of all new gold extracted in the period. Total
dehedging for this year could exceed 500 tonnes, or 16.1 million ounces, leaving roughly
2,520 tonnes (81.1moz) committed to hedging by the leading producers. Put options protect a
further 2,480 tonnes (79.7moz).


The accelerated dehedging occurred in the wake of the collapse of the gold contango last
year and US interest rates remaining in the basement. The analysts � John Bridges (New York),
Geoff Breen (Sydney) and James Wellsted (Johannesburg) � don't see much room for further
cuts for the rest of the year, although Placer Dome got in early with a 52.9 tonne (1.7moz /
20% of committed ounces) reduction announced on Thursday last week.

were given as $1,000/ounce for gold by Dec. 2003 and $10.00/ounce for silver in the September to October timeframe.

So what Rich, someone is always giving predictions somewhere? I thought these from Saturday's INO forum were noteworthy as the poster's handle is M. Kosares. Note- anyone can post there using any handle he/she wants. I hope that particular M. Kosares is clairvoyant.
Rich

Gold above $300.00It was an early rise for Gandalf and Bonfir for they would have some distance to travel before reaching their destination. Shadowfax was saddled by Gandalf but Bonfir preferred to walk and Gandalf decided to do the same. As it turned out walking gave them the time to uncover the beauties of the valley. Large oak trees with cooling shade. Blackberry bushes for a treat along the way. Deer which came to drink from the stream and the ever playful squirrels moving from tree to tree giving warning chips as the intruders came closer. Bonfir would point out various plants and tell Gandalf of their medicial value contained in the root, buds and leaves.The two men conversed as if they were old friends. An internal kinship between them. The pressing issues were set aside and all in the world was right. After some time they come upon a waterfall that gave life to the stream. Bonfir entered the water and Gandalf and Shadowfax followed him. On the other side was a path leading behind the thundering water and they disappeared behind the watery curtain. They walked along the passage as the water rushed pass them till a large cave entrance was before them.
They were about to enter a place few have seen. Gandalf entered, bringing back memories of "Under The Mountain". Soon the tunnel gave way to vaulted ceilings and collums with fine decorations.Floors turned from rough rock to polished floors, which reflected the light of torches showing them the way. A large door was before them and opened as they came near.A man came from within and assuring Shadowfaxes safety took him by the reigns. When they entered Gandalf could see people on both sides of the hall. He was curious for they wore clothes he had never seen before. Their complections were from dark to white. They had hair of gold while some had hair as black as obsidian. He then knew the tales of old were true.
The whisperings revealed he was the stranger who threw balls of light. The gathering widen at the end of the room and there stood several men. There was no throne or steps to assend.
They stood as equals and looked at Bonfir and Gandalf as they approached. A few steps before them Bonfir stopped and one of the men spoke.

Gandalf the White, Welcome. May your stay be a pleasant one.
To You Bonfir,welcome home and thank you for the safe passage of the wizard.Turning to Gandalf once again he said,You have many questions and I hope to have the answers you seek.There is little time and your quest is a heavy one.
My name is Stephen the Great, and I will help you if I can.
Gandalf giving a slight bow spoke, Thank you Stephen the Great. Gandalf was then motioned to follow him and Bonfir stayed behind. They all entered a small room containing a round table and chairs and when all were seated Stepen the Great spoke directly to Gandalf.
You have come a long way in your life Gandalf, and we have heard of your ventures. Because of your knowledge of the forces of nature and how you have use them to do good, we have allowed you into our home. I see you are somewhat surprized by my remarks and how we know of you. Let me say that a pointed hat does not make a wizard. Many have sought our help, few receive it. We have been here many years and are the outcasts of our brothers in life for we all searched for a higher understanding of the world.It is the common thread that binds us.

We have seen your power at the castle gate,against the Lord of the Castle and the King with No Name.We watched the siege and the burning of the trebuchet.The injury of your messenger and the dangerous ride to save his life by one of the Ladies. Lady Waverider is her name, is it not? And yes, Your mercy, to help those who asked for mercy. When others would have put them to death.

Good wizard, your actions have spoke well of you and you company long before you have come here.

But your quest to FREE GOLD will not be an easy task. The King with No Name, has spread his power far and wide. Consuming those who fail to see his trap. He holds Gold close to his heart, but proclaims it is worthless.The people believing this give up their gold for a promise and his protection and they have neither.
Gandalf the White, the King with No Name does not know all.The forces which he can not see or control are against him. He will fall and Gold will be SET FREE.

There was a short pause and then Stephen the Great asked to have some food and drink brought to them.
Hungry, Gandalf the White?

Indeed I am, answered Gandalf.

About 20 of them in different months.

I invested in these after doing the physical thing.

I would like to have about 100 of those big door stops.

My commodities broker deals with grain and has no solid information on silver delivery. I shall keep looking.

MOVERMEG

agree with your analysis, but it was never my intention to suggest that 1888 prices should act as a benchmark (if PPP doesn't work in space - i.e. between countries, why should it work in time - no a priori reason).

Having said this, I do think that this kind of price comparison is useful as a refutation of arguments that the POG is at fair values based on correction by cumulative inflation since WWII;

I also think that there is something to be learned from looking at 'rich peoples' prices' over the ages, since these incorporate a vanity/snob element, and are hence the least likely to be rigidly correlated to oil prices.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Knockoff-Republic.htmlBy THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:12 p.m. ET
SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) -- Benjamin Franklin never looked so good.

His jowls are missing some wrinkles, his smirk is Mona Lisa sly and sexy, and he's sporting a Kirk Douglas dimple on his chin. At least that's how he appears on the $100 bill on Rumyan Chobanov's desk.

It's a fake, but few would notice. The engraving is crisp, the paper feels convincing to the touch, and the note sports enough watermarks and other security features to pass for the real thing at a grocery store in Detroit or Des Moines.

``It's really not that well-made, but an American citizen would probably accept such a bank note,'' said Chobanov, chief teller at Bulgaria's central bank and an expert on counterfeiting.

In this knockoff republic -- a Balkan bargain basement where you can sniff out a $150 bottle of Chanel No. 5 for $35 or snag a pirate copy of Eminem's latest CD for $3.50 -- bogus bills have become Bulgaria's claim to fame.

Now that the European Union's common currency is in circulation, shadowy counterfeiters who've managed to stay one step ahead of technology and the law have added 100-euro notes to their bag of tricks.

Interpol and the Secret Service contend the $100 notes rival those that roll off the presses at the U.S. Treasury.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Pay close attention to the argument for a "new" currency based upon the "anti-counter fitting" premise.

The conventional laser/inkjet printer watermark is surface-applied and visible, the Crane paper [Used by the US Treasury for its bills], interstitial watermark is not and is therefore immune to counter-fitting--Andrew Jackson's stylish coif not withstanding.

This piece floated by the AP may be an early warning that a US currency devaluation is not far off.

GATA has information originating from deep within the Administration that is very pessimistic on the economy AND the DOW. A breakdown to say...6000 in the DOW may take the last sandbag from the financial dike.

If the Admin is to alleviate the mounting debt and mitigate litigation exposures at critical derivatives-laden Federal Reserve banks, they must fashion a plan to dilute that debt in a rapid manner. The Fed simply cannot survive the failure of JPM or Citi Bank via litigation or other mounting pressures. In other words they don't have the luxury of steady inflation since their risks are at specific banks with near-term deadline structures.

A deval of the three major currencies fits the bill. Gold would "Float" as it did after President Nixon repudiated the US gold debt in 1971. The Admin might introduce onerous regulations of its internal trade--anything is possible now that we see a President whirling outside of all normal policy trajectories.

Even Bob Dole chimed in on the side of reason in the Iraq war push. Colin Powell is rumored to be stepping down as SECSTATE in January 2003.

The frenetic, haphazard manner in which the putative Iraq war has been presented to the public, Congress and the World suggests that another very bad, and so far unarticulated threat is yet to be revealed. The threat could be economic or terrorist-related. Whatever the threat to the US is, the Administration's outward military plan to deal with it is draconian in the main.

If Mr. Bush is willing to engage in an internally AND externally unpopular war he must also be willing, by inference, to engage in an unpopular solution to a host of chronic economic problems�one of which could be a devaluation that would be spun as a new currency set of bills and an "Adjustment" to US long-term debt [Including time deposits]. Why not take all the hits at once?

Moreover, Mr. Greenspan seemed on Friday to have already delivered his "I did everything I could" defense.

It's almost as if they have already abandoned the twin paths of economic and military reason�all to avoid an inevitable financial disaster and consequent loss of face wrought by a decade of greed, corruption and especially arrogance.

To overtly take the oil via installed puppets, at great loss of life, to save a US gluttonous lifestyle, in front of the World is to cross a threshold that harbors a universe of future instability and pain.

Rich, the individual at INO is an imposter and I have contacted the owners over there (who are friends of mine) to find out who this person is. He, she, it is obviously trying to use my reputation for his/her/its own purposes. Once I have the person's name and contact information, I'll turn it over to the lawyers.

I find the use of my name for these purposes insidious and the claims you cited for gold and silver's performance preposterous. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Once again, I do not favor gold as a speculative investment. I see it as a long term portfolio insurance against a multitude of potential economic and political disasters gathering like the Horsemen on our collective horizons -- not the least of which being local currency erosion no matter where you live. ('Tis the times!!) Any time you see speculators using my name to promote enticing the unwary to gamble on gold, you know its not me. That's not where I'm coming from. . . . . . . . . Better to own ten ounces of gold bought and paid for than a thousand controlled by gold's opposition for which they've issued you a piece of paper. If we do see gold at $1000, it will not be coincident with a pretty economic picture. Like any insurance, I own it with the hope I'll never have to use it. At the same time given the nature of the modern economy, I believe we are going to have to use it someday.

Thanks for the heads up, Rich. . . .

MK

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20020831wo33.htm
Snippit:

Police have decided that an 86-year-old man from Toyama is entitled to a large number of koban (gold oval coins) and other coins unearthed at a construction site in Oyabe, Toyama Prefecture, in March, after finding that the cache belonged to a wealthy local farmer who was an ancestor of the man. The excavated koban coins from the Edo period (1603-1868) and other gold coins from the Meiji era (1868-1912) are worth about 39 million yen, according to numismatists. Police had held the coins as lost property since March. Family lore had it that gold coins were buried on the property. The 1,295 coins include oval coins of the Keicho era (1596-1615), which overlaps the early Edo period, and 10-yen gold coins of the early Meiji era.


Black Blade: Don't you just hate it when those "barbarous relics" pop up and ruin a nice little excavation project? Hmmm�

A pleasure to read good Sir! The plot thickens...enter Stephen the Great....
Waverider :)

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets go negative early tonight. Meanwhile is nearly flat on light trade. There probably won't be much movement in gold as traders will be waitring for direction from Wall Street and the markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday. If the precious metals make any significant move it will likely be due to currency and stock market flucuations in Europe.

- Black Blade

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/hemingway_table.cfm?cfid=353342&cftoken=99894749πd=2460(War) Drums Keep Pounding Rhythm To My Brain

Ed STEER's commentry posted at Le Metropole Cafe is an absolute classic. He wraps it all together in a very convincing manner---It won't end pretty! Guess we all know that but this wraps it up well.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
All currencies higher, gold flat, and petroleum at $30/bbl. Markets lower in Asia and Europe. There's a lot of economic data to be released in the US this week and all indications are that it will be very bad. Unemployment is likely to rise and pre-earnings warning season is upon us. Several tech companies have pre-warned (from Intel and IBM to Dell and HPQ). The rumor is that there could be some high profile "perp walks" scheduled within the next couple of weeks. Enron execs perhaps? Maybe Martha? Hmmm...

- Black Blade

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Asian markets got thoroughly thrashed in overnight trade. The Euro markets have resumed the full retreat from last weeks collapsing indices. Thankfully the US markets are closed for Labor Day. US market index futures are pointing lower. We are now in September, usually the worst month for the stock markets. Also of note is that US retailers are scared to death of dismal sales in the traditional "Back To School" sales season. This is usually the second most important retail period next to Christmas. It is also an accurate barometer of holiday sales in the US. It looks like a "Grinch Christmas" this year as consumers are beginning to pull in their horns. Chain stores are reporting one of the worst sales periods in years and even discount retailers are reporting terrible sales data. In a word - "Grim". Actually in two words - "Very Grim".

- Black Blade

Thanks mate for the Ed Steer link at Le M�tropole !
Feeling childishly happy with the very balanced way, Ed is wrapping it all up. It's a pitty we haven't heard (or did you-?) of this London guy, Walburton, anymore (Permanent Depreciating Currencies). No wonder, Michael Kosares is advocating ~Gold~ as a long term "investment".

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=26815
Snippit:

Gold is a major item from Bangladesh to settle payments for illegal imports from India in a brisk cross-border trade that outplays formal trading, a study shows. On the other hand, gold is the most precious item being smuggled out from Bangladesh mainly to meet the payments against contraband imports. Besides, the economists studying the surreptitious trade have reasons to believe that Bangladesh is being used as a transit for international gold smuggling.

Black Blade: When bum wipers won't do, there's always Gold!

New York, Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity prices are having their strongest rally in 19 years in a jump that analysts and investors say shows few signs of ending.

A three-month drought in the Midwest that's dimmed prospects for U.S. crops has sent corn and soybean prices up by almost a third this year. Crude oil is up 46 percent on concern that the U.S. will attack Iraq, disrupting supplies from the Middle East. Gold, which languished for years, is up 13 percent as investors sought refuge from tumbling stocks.

``Prices have been going crazy,'' said Gilbert Raske, a director at JGC International LLC, a Chicago-based exporter of grain, fertilizer, coal and fuel. ``Our customers are much more aggressive about securing supplies'' than they were before the rally, said Raske, whose company recently won a contract to supply corn to South Korean livestock-feed companies.

The Reuters-Commodity Research Bureau index, which measures 17 commodity futures markets, rose 1.79 to 219.20 on Friday, the highest level since May 2001. The index, rebounding from a two- year low last October, has gained 15 percent so far this year and is heading toward its biggest rise since 1983.

Another benchmark, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which is weighted toward energy and includes more industrial metals, is up 27 percent this year.

Corn has surged 28 percent this year and soybeans are up 29 percent. Prices have been climbing partly because overseas processors have been eager to lock in shipments before prices climb even higher, traders said.

``Commodities are up because supplies are down,'' said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Securities in Chicago. ``Next year we'll probably see some commodity prices go even higher.''

Cotton Mills

A 31 percent rise in cotton prices this year probably won't start showing up in higher jean prices for at least another year, some buyers said.

Cone Mills Corp., the world's biggest denim maker, locked in cotton prices when they were at a 29-year low last year because of record world production. The purchases have allowed the company to reduce its cotton costs by about a third from last year, said Scott Wenhold, treasurer of the Greensboro, North Carolina-based company.

``We're always hedged 12 months out, so the higher prices won't start to impact us at least for another year,'' Wenhold said. ``And that's assuming we couldn't pass on the higher costs'' to customers.

Few manufacturers stuck with paying higher raw-material costs have been able to raise the price of their products.

U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the second quarter from 5 percent in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said. The slowing economy has kept producers from raising their prices for fear of losing business, analysts said.

`Damper' on Prices

``If anything, the weak global economy has been a damper for commodity prices,'' said William Byers, senior managing director at Bear, Stearns & Co. in New York. Prices have been climbing this year largely because of reduced supply, not demand, he said.

Placer Dome Inc., the world's sixth-largest gold producer, plans to reduce by 20 percent the amount of gold it sells before it's mined, a strategy gold companies use to lock in prices. The practice, used to help companies avoid price declines, also keeps them from benefiting from rallies.

Gold will probably rise further this year ``as we go into the holiday seasons in the West and the marriage season in India,'' Wayne Murdy, chairman and chief executive of Newmont Mining Corp., said on Bloomberg TV. Newmont is the world's largest gold producer.

Unlike gold and agricultural commodities, petroleum prices have been climbing for political reasons.

Iraq Concerns

Crude oil prices in New York are close to $29 a barrel after rising to an 18-month high above $30 in August on concern that supplies from Iraq or its Persian Gulf neighbors might be disrupted by U.S. military action.

Estimates of the so-called war premium vary between $1 a barrel to as much as $8, analysts said.

``If oil is at $29 then maybe $4 to $5 is related to bullish market psychology, which is principally related to Iraq,'' said James Burkhard, associate director of Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Boston.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather in Osaka, Japan, on Sept. 19 to decide on crude-oil production levels for the final three months of the year.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter and most influential OPEC member, wants to raise output, a Vienna-based OPEC official has said. An increase might put a dent in this year's rally, analysts said.

Most other members of the producer group favor keeping production levels unchanged.

``If we take into account reports on inventories of crude and products, existing supplies'' are sufficient, Ali Rodriguez,president of Venezuelan state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, in an interview with Union Radio. Venezuela is OPEC's third biggest member, after Saudi Arabia and Iran.

http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2002/082802sharon_911.html
---On Aug. 25, former Secretary of State James Baker III added his name to the list of opponents of a unilateral American attack on Iraq on the op ed page of the New York Times. The previous day, the Tampa Tribune had reported that Gen. Anthony Zinni (USMC-ret), who was the previous Commander-in-Chief of the Central Command, and now an adviser to Secretary of State Colin Powell, came out strongly against an Iraq attack, warning of grave strategic consequences.

Zinni also assailed the group of Bush Administration neo-con war advocates who never served a day in uniform. This whole grouping�including Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, James Woolsey, Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas), and even Vice President Dick Cheney�is being widely referred to as the "chickenhawks."

"It's pretty interesting," Zinni told an audience in Tallahassee, Fla., "that all the generals see it the same way, and all the others who have never fired a shot and are hot to go to war, see it another way."---

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/02/national/02LABO.htmlSnip:

By STEVEN GREENHOUSE

With longshoremen, janitors and Boeing employees threatening major strikes and employees reeling from corporate scandals and rising unemployment, the mood among American workers has turned anxious and even angry this Labor Day.

Unions are threatening walkouts by 10,500 longshoremen, 10,000 Boston janitors and 25,000 Boeing employees for reasons that are worrying American workers in general: fast-rising health care costs, slower wage growth and fears about job security.
..........
"There is high unemployment, and it will remain that way for a while," said Lawrence Mishel, the president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research group. "Although it may have looked like a shallow recession, for some work force groups it's not so shallow."

In its new study, "The State of Working America," the institute found that wages were growing at their slowest level since 1995 and that the income gap between the richest Americans and everybody else was widening again, after narrowing in the late 1990's.
..........
A survey of 900 workers, union and nonunion, by Peter D. Hart Research Associates, found that 58 percent were dissatisfied with the state of the economy, up from 34 percent in early 2001. The poll, released on Thursday, also found that 39 percent had negative feelings toward corporations, and 30 percent had positive feelings, a sharp reversal from January 2001, when 42 percent reported positive feelings toward corporations and 25 percent said they had negative feelings. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
..........
**************
Misetich
Labor is in tough - little do they know on whats really happening- Mainstream is being fed ad nauseum on the "strong economic fundamentals" "no inflation" yet consumers/workers are relying on debts to assist them in maintaining a reasonable standard of living - 30 years ago 1 wage earner per family was enough - working 40 hours a week -
During the various stages and the productivity miracle - families are having difficulties maintaining the same standard as 30 years ago - though - hours worked are longer (including part-time jobs) spouse/partner has joined and working full/part-time
An argument can be made that the economic expansion has accomodated these new worker and created jobs - however - each individual is worse off then 30-40 years ago

Debt is at the highest levels both consumers - corporate and government

Job security has disappeared

Not a pretty picture for the common folks - and things are going to get hotter for the politicos and corporate executives as labor feels the pain inflected by corporate/government/bankers mismanagement

Happy Labor Day to all -

Got gold?

I think that's the most I've seen you write in your own commentary! (more to follow? keep up the excellent news-gathering)

It's true -- families have gotten the shaft during the "productivity miracle". Two incomes, but one of them is chiseled away with the costs of commuting, clothing, lunches, daycare, taxes, and the final cost of latchkey kids. Her "take-home" hourly pay gets whittled down from $12 to a buck-fifty or so. Tired, too.

Our family manages by time-shifting our work hours, and living on the edge. No fat retirement accounts here -- just a kid with full parental attention (I think).

Where did the technology savings go? Some (1/3? probably less, though) maybe to the highest quintile of earners/profit getters. Most of it is wasted; friction in the system. Movement for the sake of GDP statistics growth.

It's a Hubbert's Peak of societal decline (mixed metaphors, badly, I know). But we've done used up all the extra margin in people's days. I wish they could do the math for themselves and pull back from the madness, but it'll probably take a good Depression to do it for them. And awhile further before they can adapt, and admit "Hey -- this was GOOD for us!"

Thanks for a great comment (which follows). It gave me another "where" and "why" and "how" for our next economic leg down.

Gresham: "It's true -- families have gotten the shaft during the "productivity miracle". Two incomes, but one of them is chiseled away with the costs of commuting, clothing, lunches, daycare, taxes, and the final cost of latchkey kids. Her "take-home" hourly pay gets whittled down from $12 to a buck-fifty or so. Tired, too."
----------------
Couldn't agree more.

My wife quit her $12.00 an hour job last December. 1/3 was going for taxes, 10% for clothes (probably 20%, since she doesn't keep me informed of cash expenditiures), 10% for wear & tear on a vehicle, 4% for gas and maintenance, 5% for lunches, and home maintenance was non-existant. We made the choice is wasn't worth it (without children).

I can't speak for other businesses, but these secondary jobs have been the first to go in our organization, and the households on the edge will definately get hurt (not on the edge will still have to cut back, and we can, but that will put the final spear into the economy), but as these jobs go away, your above list is probably one of the best fundamental "short sell" recommendations I have seen.

Commuting - Autos
clothing - retail
lunches - retaurants
taxes - dollar assets (paper)

Our race car economy has hit the wall, and for the past couple years we've been making frantic pit stops replacing fenders, spoilers, tires, etc. just to try and stay in the race. Before we're done the economy will probably be stripped down to the chasis, and decisions such as what CD or DVD do I buy (or rent) this week will be nothing more than memories.

Political nightmare as our standand of living tubes.

Pizz

Amen, brother!

One of the comments I've retained from my Y2k forum days, when everyone was sharing their parents & grandparents' Depression reminiscences was the one: "We had everything in those days, except money."

I just finished Prechter's book, and it really put me in a mood of imagining a nationwide shortage of -- of all things! -- money. We really take the current liquidity for granted. When the herd turns, and credit faucets are shut off, well...

During that read, I think I realized (either from Prechter, or somewhere online) the Fed's limit on buying and monetizing debt. It is NOT the ability to do unlimited printing. And those little green papers ARE the Fed's liability, on paper. I'm not sure I can revive the picture I got, entirely, but let me grapple here.

The Fed & Treasury are in the banker/king alliance that the Bank of England developed in 1696(?), and it has worked to finance wars, and whatever the monarch wanted. Bankers got to "coin" the money the commoners had to use.

But in a pinch -- who cuts who loose? Is the Fed willing to go down with the USTreasury? (Because that deficit is sure heading rapidly the wrong directions, and the IRS is looking pretty anemic lately as a collection agency.)

Is the Fed just another collapsible "special purpose vehicle"? Or does it have a fallback position in some kind of re-org scenario? (Does it fancy itself somehow the REAL government?)

In the old infla/defla/lalal question, I don't see the Fed _printing_ a whole lot of new FRNs, but what FRNs are out there, "safe" in their holders' hands from bank closures, will flee toward gold as their redeemability in real US assets is called into question. (The Fed's balance sheet looking bad with flaky debt? Or just general stagnation?)

And the collapse of loan portfolios will cause an e-dollar retrenchment that will implode consumer spending.

I think green dollars will be closer to gold on the spectrum of safety than e-dollars are, but their holders will then wonder, "Why not go for the extra margin of safety? These are easily interchangeable."

Have I lost everyone here? I haven't done one of these commentaries in awhile, and I'm still trying to guesstimate the magnitude of some of these numbers, and their changes in relation to one another.

If the early 30s saw a money supply collapse of something like 30%, what could we be in for now, with so many more types of money, and in way more debt-challenged hands?

In the "hyrdraulics" of money supply imaginings, you could have the present money supply collapse by 50%, but if, previously, you had, say, only 3% of monetary value in gold (WAG of $1 trillion out of $30 trillion???), if people wanted to flee toward 30% of monetary value in gold (4.5 out of 15), you would have a rough quintupling of nominal price (300 to 1500), and 10x the purchasing power. Flight to quality, especially under contraction-induced default of so many other monetary bases.

.......and a Dad who's a LOT smarter than the average bear.

Salutations and best wishes....CM

The Federal Reserve was created by act of Congress. Ostensibly, it has the legal authority to create money, but it does not have to make good on that liability. For that, the U.S. government is responsible (in other words, the American taxpayer). The Fed is not an agency of the Federal government. Nor does the Federal government control its actions. The Federal Reserve exists solely for the purpose of making a profit for its shareholders, by means of engaging in activity which is, in reality, business. Its present chairman employs deceptive tactics both to obfuscate (muddy up) what is happening, and to deflect the public's attention toward what appear to be pertinent topics and facts, and away from relevant conditions.

Can someone confirm the accuracy of Kitco's Au lease rates? If correct, the 1 mo., 2 mo., 3 mo., and 1 yr. contracts are up huge today. I will do a search for substantiation. Happy Labor Day

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/6/2/62018.shtmlHow difficult can it be to determine who bought these puts? Perhaps they don't want to know.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Thanks and I'll take that as my inspiration to quit poking 'round here on the 'Net and get on with my Daddish duties (the usual: painting, mowing, dishwashing, chaufeurring) and even catch up on some billing (called "earning a living" in some professions ;) I'm now in my "Fiat Respect Recovery" program, which means around this time of the month, I forget about gold and write checks for bills instead. I honestly didn't think The Game would go on for this long, but then, I always was the impatient and impetuous one...

Monday, 2 September, 2002, 15:40 GMT 16:40 UK
Russia warns against Iraq attack


Ivanov: Iraq poses no threat to the US

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov has warned that a US attack on Iraq could destabilise the Middle East.
"Any decision to use force against Iraq would not only complicate an Iraqi settlement but also undermine the situation in the Gulf and the Middle East," he said after talks with Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri.


Sabri's talks are part of a diplomatic offensive

Mr Sabri was meeting Mr Ivanov in Moscow as part of Baghdad's drive to thwart a possible US military strike.

Moscow has been a strong supporter of Washington's post-11 September "war on terror" but has close links to Iraq.

Russia could not see "a single well-founded argument that Iraq represents a threat to US national security", Mr Ivanov said.

Mr Ivanov said Moscow welcomed the continuation of talks between Iraq and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan which, he hoped, would result in the return of weapons inspectors and the lifting of international sanctions.

Iraq's deputy prime minister, Tareq Aziz, told journalists in Johannesburg that he would meet Mr Annan on Tuesday.

Iraq and Russia recently agreed to sign an economic co-operation deal worth up to $60bn.

It will include new projects as well as the modernisation of Soviet-built infrastructure in Iraq.

Washington has warned that Moscow's diplomatic standing could be eroded because of its relations with regimes such as that in Iraq.

'First step'

US Secretary of State Colin Powell has said that if Iraq allows UN inspectors back in to complete their assessment of its weapons industry, it will be a "first step".

The comment came after Vice-President Dick Cheney said there was no point in sending weapons inspectors back into Iraq and argued forcefully for military action.

Mr Powell said the US also needed to present evidence of its suspicions about the threat posed by Iraq to the international community so that an informed judgement could be made about possible military action.

Dr Mudhaffar Amin, the Iraqi representative in London, told the BBC on Monday that Iraq would welcome UN weapon inspectors but needed top work out an agenda for them.

"We really have to sit and work out the agenda for their work," he said.

Appeal to Bush Senior

America's statements on Iraq continue to attract international criticism.

Former President Nelson Mandela of South Africa said on Monday he was "appalled".

"What they are introducing is chaos in international affairs and we condemn that in the strongest terms," Mr Mandela said in Johannesburg.

"We are really appalled by any country whether it is a superpower or a poor country that goes outside the United Nations and attacks independent countries."

The former South African leader said he had contacted President George W Bush's father - George Bush Senior - and asked that he raise the matter with his son.

Last message courtesy of BBC News.

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4284127093854175296
(Swaps vs. U.S. Dollars, previous day's in brackets):

02-Sep-02

1 Month - 1.650 pc
2 Month - 1.600 pc
3 Month - 1.560 pc
6 Month - 1.355 pc
1 Year - 1.188 pc

Black Blade: Lease rates? Maybe this will help.

Thanks. A check at LBMA.org.uk showed today's London Bullion Marketing Association (LBMA) GOFO (Gold Forward Offerred Rates) incorrectly quoted as being the LIBOR (London Interbank Offerred Rates) by Futuresource at your link. However, the page at your link shows Friday's rates in brackets alongside todays- with little or no increase! This is probably correct because Kitco's figures do not correspond at all with the LBMA quotes at their website. The GOFO rates Futuresource shows (without the correct attribution) are the Kitco rats normally. These are rates at which contributors (Market Making Members of LBMA) are prepared to lend gold on a swap against US dollars. Some of the uses of the GOFO in the market: To provide a basis for some finance and loan agreements and for the settlement of gold Interest Rate Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements. The "contributors" are: AIG International Ltd., The Bank of Nova Scotia- Scotia Mocatta, Barclays Bank Plc., Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank USA London Branch, J Aron and Co (UK), JPMorgan Chase Bank, NM Rothschild & Sons Ltd, Societe Generale and UBS AG. Thanks again.

It would seem these rates are manipulated down by the large investment banks to facilitate the gold carry trade (leasing) and hedging in supplying gold needed in price suppression and shorting. So a small increase in rates from 1- 2% is no longer significant compared to the impending likelihood of a much greater day to day spike.

I'm looking at K. and see that there are two lease rates quoted. The first derived from market data, and the second by taking the difference between the Libor rate and the forward rate. Are you saying Mikal that these are normally consistent? If not, why the discrepency - why two? Also, what it the difference in use between the GOFO rates and the lease rates? TIA, Cheers,
Waverider

I'll be glad to answer SOME of your good questions! I accessed the page you referred at the K site where they list the 3 different quotes for each of the periods from 1 mo. to 12 mo., unlike the home page containing only the Derived Lease Rates (LIBOR-GOFO). The LBMA is K's source, so K must be "consistent" to be credible. LBMA members(Market Making Members) determine the GOFO (Gold Forward Offered Rate) daily where a minimum of six members must daily submit their offer, the highest and lowest are thrown out and the mean average taken from the remaining offers. This is the GOFO (Forward) and is subtracted from LIBOR(London Interbank Offered Rate) to get the Derived or Lease(LIBOR-GOFO) rate. These 3 different rates are shown on your page and at LBMA daily. GOFO appears to be the benchmark to watch, though the derived rate must have a useful trading purpose.

Among the reasons to watch GOFO are the words I quoted from the LBMA earlier that GOFO "are the rates at which contributors are prepared to lend gold on a swap against US dollars". And "some of the uses of GOFO means in the market include providing a basis for some finance and loan agreements and for the settlement of gold Interest Rate Swaps and Forward Rate Agreements."

Thanks to Mr. Gresham, Misetich, and Pizz for comments on Labor Day.
A few additional comments, based largely on information gained from this forum over the past few years:
It is worth noting that technology over the last 100 years has produced labor saving devices (both quantity & quality)unprecedented in recorded history. Yet for most Americans both parents have to work in order to support a family (up from 1 parent working 50 years ago). Logic would dictate that hours worked for sustenance should have decreased substantially over the last decades...the opposite has occurred.
Why?
A greater percentage of workers' wages is seized by various levels of government by taxation (necessitated in large part to pay interest on increasing amounts of government debt).
Over the last decades family debt has also increased and the associated interest payments consume additional purchasing power.
Also, the "hidden tax" of inflation (incorrectly reported by the CPI) eats away a substantial portion of purchasing power.
In the last two decades consideration of the concept of circular flow of income when formulating economic policy, has been discontinued. Income for workers created by production should be sufficient for them to purchase a substantial portion of that production.
Foreign produced goods (slave labor, in some cases) have
been imported without tariff. Labor and environmental cost differentials have been ignored.
American consumers (who no longer produce most of the goods they consume) have financed their consumption with increasing amounts of personal debt. IMHO The current situation does not appear sustainable.

The fundamental difference between the Western oil-consuming, economic powers and the oil-producing countries , (economically less developed) is that rising POO affects them both in an opposite way, without compensating effects. The Middle East and Russia (+/- 70% of global oil-reserves) do need, desperately, much higher oilprices, if they want to join our western prosperity. The west can't afford to pay more than 30$/35$ IN PRESENT DOLLARS, per barril or risks collapse.

The longer a high/higher POO remains...the more both parties (consumers/producers) experience the respective negative and positive aspects of such an elevated price.
The economic stronger west experiences faster currency depreciation and the holders of oil-reserves get a possibility to come economically closer to the west (dollar/euro-block included China).

When a M.E. war should be postponed for whatever excuse, the oil-reserve holders will build much stronger ties with each other and use the POO tool/weapon, more vigorously.
This plays into the "euro" cards and embarresses the dollar.
This as a possible explanation for Euroland and Russia's geopolitical stance and isolation of the US.

Calling off the Iraq attack (temporary), would immediately cut the 5$ war-premium (so called) off the POO and give cat and mouse some breathing time. They will play again somewhat later.

Breathing time for letting the bubbles unwind/deflate more orderly without disturbing crashes/shocks. Stockmarkets slipsliding slowly to 1990 levels, IRs, creaping up a bit and $/� hoovering around parity. Recovery time is NO panic time.

What do you think Mister President Bush ?

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHey...we get an Afternoon Gold Report today...thanks Black Blade for doing that on a holiday! :)

Thanks also Mikal - that's helped. I'll keep a closer eye on the GOFO rate although I think that the derived rate is generally referred to in discussions - yes? Cheers!

Waverider

The latest absurdity from this country(if I can call it that),first they kick out the white farmers from a country that used to export food.Then they put thier relatives and other political cronies in charge of the farms.Now they face famine,and what does the U.S.do ?We send them free food of coarse,and what is thier responce?.Is it "thank you"?.
No ,the responce is "we don't want the food because it is genetically altered !"We only want your food that is naturally grown." I say let "natural selection take its coarse".
It kind of reminds me of a fellow standing on a street corner taking handouts.I saw someone offer him a hamburger,after which he quickly replied "Im a vegetarian",not wanting food ,but money. Same thing happined to me in Rome two years ago.My son-in -law and I were in a corner sub shop buying a few sandwiches.In comes a gypsy with hand stretched out begging for
money.My son-in-law offered her the sandwich he had just gotten from the clerk.She said to him "mangia tua".My son-law asked me "what did she say?"I said she just told you to eat
it yourself.
Ten years ago I owned a Donut shop and a fellow came in begging for something to eat.We also served soup'so I gave him a free bowl of soup and Italian bread with it.
Fifteen minutes later my employee came back to the office to tell me the fellow wanted to see me again.
My first thought was "what does he want now ,desert?.
No,what he wanted to know was ,would I give him $7.00 to buy bus tickets with so he woulden't have to walk.
Needless to say I showed him the door and told him not to let it hit him in the ass on the way out.

This modern world needs a depression just to get some peoples heads screwed on straight. IMHO Buy gold & silver ,its coming!

Consolidated Freightways Corp., a 73-year-old trucking company, said Monday it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and laying off as many as 15,500 people around the country.
The company's stock had tumbled since it requested an extension in filing its second-quarter earnings two weeks ago and announced that it might be de-listed from the Nasdaq stock market.

In letters being mailed to workers Tuesday, the company said it simply didn't have enough money to continue operations.

``We expected that recent discussions with our banks, other lenders and real estate investors would enable us to obtain significant additional financial resources,'' the letters said. ``Unfortunately, this has not been the case.''

Hundreds of workers had shown up for work at Consolidated Freightways offices Monday, only to find the offices locked. In a recorded telephone message, Chief Executive John Brincko told them not to show up Tuesday.

Your observation is correct that taxes are the reason for the two worker household. I would also go so far as to say that inordinately high tax load (promulgated at nearly every level of our day to day existence) contributes mightily to the high rate of household debt as well. Of course, the high tax rates themselves are the result of burgeoning government debt at all levels and -- the great irony of our times. In other words, we go into debt because our government went into debt first. For most here, I see no need to elaborate on that observation. The failure of the economic system at this level is something "economists" on the left do not want to discuss because it undemines its "tax and spend" justification for existence. It is ignored on the right because it undermines its out-dated notion that high debt-to-savings ratios represent personal moral failure rather than one on the part of the institutions which govern us. As a result, neither side of the political equation has a real interest in, or justification for, solving the problem. On we go. . . .

At the root, the cause of the problem is the fiat money (credit) system itself -- a system some would say is the best option of a bad lot on this planet -- monetary debris resulting from The Fall. My view is that the system probably cannot be reformed given the lifestyle (and sense of security) for which the enormous debt load was established. Match that to the inability of either party institute the kinds of fundamental changes required to set things right and you have what appears to be unstoppable momentum toward a one-time, complete and cataclysmic failure.

I do not advocate organizing to change the system. I no longer think that is possible. There was a time I did, but no more. I might change when I see moral leadership rise in one of the political parties, or perhaps from a "third" alternative. In lieu of such leadership, I advocate changing how we structure our portfolios to weather the excesses the system has brought about. . . .and to survive. I am sorry to say I have more and more taken on an almost Fatalist (note the word Fatalist, not Defeatist) mentality -- wherein the best we can do is what we do for ourselves and our families. Start there and see what follows. . . . . . .

"The wolf is always at the door. . . . .
In a New York minute, everything can change. . . . . ." Don Henley

Gold for the portfolio; Wisdom for the Soul. . .Here at this Table Round. . . . .And Gandalf readies the Big, Month-long Birthday Bash starting with a Major Price Guessing Contest. . . . . . . .Onward, my friends. . ..

Thanks for the reply to my earlier post, and thank you for providing a civilized location where ideas may be exchanged.
Ten Bears

MK, I hope you will indulge this.Dan O'Neill: Augusta is still The Masters of its domain
Dan O'Neill
Post-Dispatch Sports Columnist
08/31/2002 09:44 PM


You have to give Hootie Johnson and the 300 or so members of Augusta National Golf Club credit. They've got backbone.

In an age in which the politically correct card is accepted in more places than Visa, where a few headlines, a little public pressure and a hint of "discrimination" is enough to have it your way, Augusta and its Masters Tournament landed a blow for good ol' rationality.

Augusta National chairman Johnson announced on Friday the club has contacted its corporate sponsors of the Masters Tournament and officially issued them "Get Out of Jail Free" cards. Augusta will not be requiring their services for the 2003 tournament, which will be a tradition unlike any other, if for no other reason than it will be commercial free. The unprecedented pre-emptive strike by America's most romantic club was in response to more rumblings by Martha Burk and the National Council of Womens Organizations.

The NCWO has taken issue with the lack of women members at Augusta National, which was formed in 1932 and began conducting the Masters Tournament in 1934. Earlier this year, Burk sent Johnson a letter urging Augusta National to invite a woman aboard. Johnson studied that unsolicited piece of counseling for a spell before sending a return letter that basically urged the NCWO to stick it where the Azaleas don't bloom. Speculation was the NCWO would counter by putting pressure on corporate sponsors of the Masters, which includes Coca-Cola, IBM and Citigroup. Sure enough, Martha and her libertarians recently contacted at least one of those sponsors about this monumental indignation.

Officials at Coca-Cola characterized the NCWO's letter as non-threatening, but Augusta National doesn't give a Hoot. The club decided the best defense was a good offense. It wasn't waiting for threats, wasn't putting up with the nonsense. You want to bother the sponsors, fine, there won't be any sponsors. Case closed.

You see, it ain't easy being green, but it ain't destitute either. The cost of commercial air during the Masters, like everything at Augusta, is on a need-to-know basis. But estimates put each four-minute hourly segment in the neighborhood of $75,000, which is a swanky neighborhood. But when you have a procession of cash registers ringing like the bells of St. Mary's seven days each spring, you don't need the eggs. People line up for souvenirs at the Masters like they're lining up for youth serum. They buy for themselves, buy for their family, buy for their friends, buy for the buying. Not only is Augusta taking its corporate supporters off the hook, word is it will waive its rights fee to CBS and offset any losses the network might incur.

No doubt, many of us were prepared to stop drinking Coke until justice prevailed, until Augusta National set our people free by inviting a wealthy, influential, female golf-administrator type to be part of their wealthy, influential golf-administrative-type society. The incense was burning, Peter, Paul and Mary were on the stereo, and the "Put a Dame on Magnolia Lane" slogan was on the placard.

Instead, all we can do is sit back and watch all 14 or so hours of the 2003 Masters without commercial interruptions. Man, that NCWO really knows how to hone in on an important social issue and bring the heat. God forbid they lean on sponsors of "The Tonight Show."

Or, God forbid the NCWO find a cause that actually has some redeeming value for women and human kind. Augusta National is a conservative, unyielding place. It took these aristocrats 58 years to invite an African-American to the party. It may take them awhile longer to set a place for a woman.

But everything in life can't be legislated or enforced, and every organization with an ax to grind can't be accommodated. The only thing worse than Augusta National not having a female member is some goofy organization telling them that they must.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=524&u=/ap/20020902/ap_wo_en_po/iran_iraq_1≺inter=1Mon Sep 2, 7:24 AM ET

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran reiterated its opposition to a possible U.S. attack against Iraq, warning it will not stand idle in the face of new regional instability.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told a news conference Monday that only the "Iraqi people, and not a world power, should determine Iraq's destiny."

"At the same time, Iran will not stand idle before such instability because if a country decides to overthrow another country's government, this will create a norm," Asefi said without elaborating.

Iran straddles the tense Middle East and Central Asian regions, sharing its western border with Iraq and eastern with Afghanistan ( news - web sites), the war-ravaged nation that U.S.-led forces struck following the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

Speculation has been mounting that America wants to broaden its war on terror to Iraq, a move that has so far won little international support.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

All this regional and World opposition [See Caven Man's Russia post below] was easily predictable. So easy that one cannot escape the impression that it all has been a set-up by Bush and a few insiders on the Cabinet.

The true reason [Not revealed yet] for the war talk could be designed to sucker the opposition into an open display of disapproval. Then when the real reason ultimatly manifests itself, say�a known terrorist WMD attack on 9/11/02, then the tables will be turned [In the minds of the insiders on the Cabinet].

Such transparent, high-risk policy gambles and war preparations do little to engender respect for the Presidency or future support. Moreover, the frantic Administration arm-waving suggests that if GWB has no direct terrorist attack knowledge, then some sort of near-term economic "Crater Date" may be driving things.

One would do well to make financial moves...now.

What the devil does that piece have to do with anything here? You reached WAY out into left field for some wacky sort of subject title to mention gold for an article that has absolutely no place here! C'mon, you know better than that....

This 21 year old amateur is from my home townHe was in third place on Saturday at the US Open's Downpour Round - when the fairways were literally under 2 inches of water and the players had to drop in the rough to "Get relief". He finished low amateur.

Kevin practices at courses nearby. He is a first-class kid from the old school and he strikes the ball with wonderful purity. He will play with an invitation at the Masters.

Thank GOD Mr. Johnson took a stand against Politically Correct Gestapo. We shall see just how many NEW sponsors show up to stand with him and be counted.

There will be more than a few.

1. If you had been paying attention, you would know that our missing "essayist" once implied in a fleeting remark that he was a member of the club.

2. If you had been paying attention, you would know that said "essayist" has been MIA for eight months.

3. If you were paying attention this evening, you might have seen thru my poor, feeble attempt to strike a note of commonality based upon #'s 1 & 2 above with the "essayist" therby hoping to elicit a response to the post you find so inappropriate.

4. If you personally knew our host, you would know that he is an avid golfer and a big advocate of "rationality" and common sense.

5. Who asked you anyway?

I plan to take the time tomorrow to write "Hootie" and thank him for striking a blow for the Constitution and Bill of Rights (am I stretching it too far) not to mention the fine traditions of the Masters. Regarding your theories on Iraq; I just don't know. It is truly amazing to see the action in the press knowing the stakes are incredibly high. I read Bill Bonner's two year old piece. "The Tipping Point" today. I think we are definitely near to a "tipping point" in this world. Have a great week...CM

1. so?
2. and your point is...?
3. very poor attempt...
4. I'll bet he's got a lot of other interests too, but he wouldn't want anything about them posted here...
5. whatever...

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlCome on "LURKERS", just "hit" the above LINK --- or hit the Link named "Discussion Forum Guidelines" at the top of the FORUM page and you will see the Forum Rules and Sign-up Form to register for POSTING capability.

The OFFICIAL "Birthday" of the USAGOLD Forum is defined as September 21st !

This MONTH long CELEBRATION is to recognize "The Fourth Birthday" for the USAGOLD Forum, and GOLDEN prizes are going to be given to skillful and fortunate posters. The first segment of the CELEBRATION, which will begin shortly after this LABOR DAY HOLIDAY, shall be the GOLD SETTLEMENT PRICE GUESSING CONTEST ! Please watch for information as soon as the Hobbits return to work !

The SECOND portion of this USAGOLD Forum CELEBRATION will be an essay Contest and shall begin shortly after the completion of the Price Guessing Contest !

As NUMEROUS examples of prior "Birthday Essay Contests", I submit the ARCHIVED submittals of a number of "Famous Forum Goldhearts" !

===First some "Rhymes"
---

The Scot (09/21/99; 21:06:22MDT - Msg ID:14098)
***HAPPY BIRTHDAY! O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore...***

What has brought us to this celebration?
Is it chivalry, is it patriotism, or is it the quest?
What do we seek here? Is it knowledge, understanding,
or a desire to be best?
Ye, through all this time, I think it is all.
To sit at such a table is an honor, to have your chair, to hang your shield on the wall.
The assembly, that's it! We are united in the cause.
We are Knights and Ladies of the land.
Against all that threaten, we take a stand.
Though at times we might not agree,
we all choose this Ore to set us free.
We know the truth, for it is right.
The truth was revealed here this night.
Let us guard this sacred place,
around this old table of Grace.

Good night to all,
The Scot

=== and

Peter Asher (09/22/99; 01:07:30MDT - Msg ID:14105)
***HAPPY BIRTHDAY "O" Mighty Oaken Table of Yore***
O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore,
Witness to enchanted lore,
Told by wondrous Knights of old,
Of quests renown by deeds so bold.

You've become our Forum standard,
"Knights of Gold" our host commanded.
Drawn by history's shining moments,
Now we stand as Gold's proponents.

First a band, a loyal few,
Inspired ranks which swiftly grew
Into this group we see tonight,
Linked by bonds of truth wove tight.

The young, the old;
The slow, the witty;
Country folk and some of city.
Wise men from across the sea,
Perhaps a Sheik of Araby.

Questing for a realm of knowledge
Far beyond the scope of college,
With passionate informed debate,
This lustrous Gold we venerate.

Gather round this massive table,
Raise your glasses as your able.
Congregate to celebrate,
This Golden Forum's birthing date.

Aragorn and Aristotle,
Open now an aged bottle.
Northy, how �bout you and Crier
Light us up a roaring fire.

ET, Scottie, Michael, Koan;
Tell us where the next years goin'
Gandalf, wizard of us all,
What's inside your crystal ball?

Leigh and Tomcat, tell us stories,
Tales of monetary glories.
PH shall we now regal
In Y2K by AEL?


FOA you're as a brother
With your distant friend Another.
Caven, tell us where you've gone
Can you find him Megatron.
Canamami, have a look,
Otherwise just ask Canuck

Beesting, Stranger,also ORO,
Tell us how we'll feel tomorrow
Crossroads, Steve and Golden Truth,
Sit by us and give us sooth.

Oh yes, Richard, when we sup,
I'd like to sit with Buttercup.
Then when all is said and done,
Let's have a toast by el St. One.

"When from this castle far you Roam;
O'er towering peaks or seas of foam.
If for your friends you have a yen,
Just go online � your home again."
===
<;-)

Top Financial News


09/02 20:21
Japan's Ishihara Says Tokyo May Shift Some Deposits to Citibank
By Yoshiko Matsushita


Tokyo, Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo's government, concerned over Japan's wobbly banks, may shift some of its 1.7 trillion yen ($14.4 billion) in deposits from Mizuho Holdings Inc. and other Japanese lenders to foreign rivals such as Citigroup Inc.

``If the conditions are good, we'd do businesses with anybody including foreign banks,'' Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara said in an interview. ``Citibank has the best record here in Japan, so it could be one of the candidates.''

Tokyo conducted assessments of deposit data, capital levels and credit ratings at Mizuho and 14 other lenders. The city, which earlier said it may close accounts or stop making new deposits at banks it deemed riskiest, hasn't released details of the reviews.

Tokyo and other local governments are seeking to ensure the safety of taxpayer money as Japan plans to remove unlimited protection from most types of deposits starting April 1. A fall in deposits would make it harder for Japan's lenders, struggling with 52.4 trillion yen in bad loans, to return to profit.

``We're responsible for public money, taxpayers' money, and we can't just let it go up in smoke,'' Ishihara said, leaning back in a white armchair in a Tokyo Metropolitan office. Citibank's ``interest rates are more than 10 times those of banks here.''

Following computer breakdowns in April at Mizuho that resulted in double-charging of 60,000 customer accounts and as many as 2.5 million delays of money transfers, Tokyo shifted 300 billion yen of deposits from the world's largest lender, where it was the biggest depositor, to buy Japanese government bonds, Ishihara said.

Tokyo may allocate more funds to bonds, including central and local government securities as well as corporate bonds, the governor said. Bond holdings, which account for about 20 percent of Tokyo's total public funds, may rise to as much as 50 percent, the city government said last month.

Mizuho's Homework

Apart from the assessments of lenders, Tokyo carried out an in-depth inspection on Mizuho separate from the checks the Financial Services Agency conducted after the April computer glitches, Ishihara said. The inspection found more problems than the FSA discovered, he said, without elaborating.

Ishihara said Tokyo may pull out more money or take other measures if it isn't satisfied with reports Mizuho, formed from the merger of Fuji Bank Ltd., Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Ltd. and Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd., is scheduled to submit to Tokyo.

``I've given them two homework assignments; one due in October and the other in March,'' Ishihara said. ``If they don't make us happy, we'll have to take some actions.''

Mizuho, which handles the city's payroll and processes tax payments, on Aug. 23 said it would pay the Tokyo government 16.9 million yen to cover costs incurred as a result of the computer breakdowns.

``Too Lenient''

Ishihara also attacked the FSA, saying its inspections and subsequent actions on Mizuho were inadequate and ``too lenient.''

``The worst part of all this is the FSA is hiding things so they don't lose face,'' Ishihara said. ``Until we stepped in, the FSA hadn't really done anything. They haven't grasped what's really going on.''

The FSA in June said Mizuho gave it inaccurate information about the progress of its tie-up before April 1. It ordered the bank to make reports every three months to ensure there are no more breakdowns.

``Japan's government -- the FSA -- has no grand design on how to revive the nation's financial system,'' Ishihara said. ``The FSA is being reactive, not proactive, and by doing this, the wound just gets deeper and deeper.''

Ishihara said bureaucrats at the FSA have told him Mizuho's situation is so bad it may not be viable much longer. They have no plan for action, though, and say they don't want to deal with a crisis when they're in charge.

Bank Tax

In addition to calling Mizuho on the carpet, the governor has been trying to squeeze more money out of lenders that operate in Tokyo. He said he'll continue to fight for a tax on banks that has been the subject of a court battle because the city needs the revenue.

``We cannot rely on the central government (for all funding), and we never know what's going to happen in a trial,'' he said

Tokyo is requiring banks to pay taxes based on their assets, not net income, forcing even money-losing banks to contribute. In March, the Tokyo District Court ordered the city to repay 74.2 billion yen to Mizuho and other Japanese banks, saying the tax was unfair. The court did not revoke the law, and Ishihara said the city would appeal.

Still, the governor said he may be pushing too hard on Mizuho and the other banks.

``I'm also a politician. It would be troublesome if Japan goes into a financial panic because Tokyo has triggered it.''

Goldspoon (09/22/99; 03:28:00MDT - Msg ID:14110)
***HAPPY BIRTHDAY "O" Mighty Oaken Table of Yore***

What stellar company you are... The quality of posts at this round table makes one humble.. When i started to first read and then post at this fine Oaken table i had only a hint of the members gathered here... The faces were in shadows hidden by your guilded armored helmets. As my eyes became adjusted to the golden glow here and my ears adjusted to the softspoken words of encouragement and of golden truth, i realized that i was in the company of bravehearts. Hearts tempered by battle and minds of refined wisdom..Unselfish souls willing to share the timeless knowledge of the true Golden Ages. A time stolen from us that i did not even know was missing.... i soon learned that even i had something to add (meeger as it may be) to this Golden Quest, almost as if i were drawn here of purpose... Excuse me for some of my past posts dear Knights of the Round Table... for i did not then realize how tall the trees in this forest were... nor how firmly rooted their convictions, nay even of the rich soil of truth and justice from which they feed.....makes one feel small... but proud of one's place....As the ages roll.. and birthdays pass...Hear!..Hear! and raise your glass!..To one and all who gather here and to every braveheart that endures..remember what every Gold Smith knows.. that the more Gold is hammered, streched and stressed.. the more that admoration for the metal grows... Like you, dear friends who gather round here..Kings, Knights, Wizards, and Grand Ladies alike..a toast!!...a toast to Freeeeedom, Justice, and the soon return of Gold as Money for All!!.....
==== AND

Black Blade (9/22/99; 11:15:33MDT - Msg ID:14123)
***HAPPY BIRTHDAY! O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore...***

I, Sir Black Blade having just returned from the far reaches in search of the valued metal "GOLD", a worthy crusade indeed, find myself on a narrow forested and fogged path. I emerge from the mist and I see the magnificent virtual castle of USAGOLD. I approach cautiously having been away for some time and only able to receive precious little news from the Forum while in the wilderness. I see that all is quiet and I wonder, where is everyone? Is this a trap? I draw the Black Blade from it's sheaf and move slowly toward the drawbridge. I notice that the bridge is lowered and the feeling of danger grows. I see a sudden movement and I prepare to fight. Then I recognize a tall cloaked figure. I'm relieved, I see the Town Crier, our guardian of the gate. He beckons me forth and proudly announces that the festivities have begun. I replace the Black Blade into it's sheaf and proceed toward the Great Hall.

I come toward the huge oak doors and they open as if by some magical power. Behold, the Round Table with many guests, some known to me and others whom I have not yet met. At the head of the table is his royal highness MK, King of this virtual realm, his royal counselors FOA and Another raising their golden chalices toasting good fortune to all. Off to the side I see the royal economists Stranger and Farfel debating stagflation and preparing to grab lances for another jousting contest. If this continues much longer I should think they will use maces and battle axes next. Meanwhile ORO scratches his head in amazement and the royal Lady of the Court Leigh admonishes the two of them for being so rambunctious. I tell our Lady not to worry, boys will be boys. She gives me that downcast look and I realize that I should hold my tongue around this fair maiden. I take a seat at the table and fill my goblet. I look across the table and see Sir Koan and Sir Phos drinking from Silver Goblets all the while Sir Koan is explaining to all who will listen about how to tell a dog from a bear. In the glow of the fire I see a new face, who can that be? He drinks from a platinum chalice. Why I believe that be Sir Goldspoon. There is laughter off to my right and I see Sirs WAC, PH, Asher, Gandolf, Canuck, North of 49, and Canamami. I am curious of course, so I approach. Of course, they are observing Tom Fumich our beloved Court Jester performing his usual (and unusual) antics. I cross the hall to the other side of the Round Table. I see Sirs SteveH, Aragorn III, Scott, Cavan Man and Beesting surrounded by dark smoke, standing around a blackened cauldron near the fireplace engaged in strange and wonderful experiments of alchemy. I wonder if Sirs SteveH and Aragorn III are really wizards or sorcerers. I also hear Sir ET warning of Y2K over all the merriment. I see a ghostly figure in the background whispering into King MK's ear. I believe that must be the elusive Sir Holtzman who has come by for a rare visit. I know that there is a seat reserved for this learned knight, however, he has yet to take his rightful place at this forum. I see many new knights as well as old friends entering the Great Hall. I move back to my seat, grab my goblet, and taste the sweet nectar. I relax and smile because before I go on my next crusade for the noble metal in a distant land, I share some time with friends, fellow Knights and Ladies ���.
For now I'm home.
===
<;-)

Aristotle (09/22/99; 23:05:30MDT - Msg ID:14167)
***HAPPY BIRTHDAY! O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore...***
MK suggested that we embark upon a spirited bout of one-upmanship for offering "the most gracious, acceptable and believable compliment of this FORUM...the Table Round -- this meeting place that has become an important addition to our lives" as a one-year birthday tribute.

One year old? My dear FORUM, you have surely been lied to about your year of birth, for you are surely much older than that. You overflow with wisdoms and the richness of grace that only age can provide. No, your life began much earlier in time than September of 1998, for you sprang to life as we knights and ladies each drew OUR first breath and embarked on lifelong quests to gather unbidden, to build, to manifest this noblest of human endeavors as a Table Round--to strive for the key to unlock the full potential of mankind that currently lies hidden in a cloud of confusion. I have prepared a verse that I offer on this occasion which I feel defines our prevailing view:

The treasures of life will remain locked away
until we control our greed;
Our folly it seems is hoarding Gold as the prize
when Gold must be USED as the key.

This noble Forum need not employ an agent (sorry MK) to fish for compliments on its behalf. I say this because this Round Table takes on its form from one compliment after another in the form of the valuable thoughts that each person chooses of their free will to put on open display for the incremental enrichment of mankind. We post, too, for yet another reason. To provide ourselves with a glimmer of hope, like a castaway on a small island at sea who commits a message in a bottle to the endless waves as a small plea to anyone "out there" who might find it and somehow make a difference while we are powerless to do so. And if the currents be against us and the bottle be not found for an age, at least it will one day be known by someone that there once was a forlorn soul who's life nonetheless burned as bright as ever has under the sun.

"Why do we read, if not post?" In a comment I attribute to C.S. Lewis..."To know we're not alone." Nobody gathered here does so for the purpose of making money. Oh, sure, we might justify to ourselves and our inquiring friends and families that that IS the reason, be deep down we know it is not. All the money we have and need we continue to earn in our daily honest endeavors. But we have the nagging suspicion that all is not right, that something is amiss with this money we've honestly earned. We gather here to learn why we feel as we do, and to confirm that we are not playing the part of the fool while the rest of the world walks the higher road in a State of Grace. No, as we gain confidence from one another to raise our eyes and allow ourselves to see clearly, and to allow ourselves to follow our own conscience regarding the direction of our own lives, we realize that things are not as they once seemed. It is we that are traveling the higher road, and immune to the scorn cast about by the masses who are to frightened to leave the herd as we have done.

An unknown author once answered his own question "What surprises you most about mankind?"
"That they get bored of being children, are in a rush to grow up, and then long to be children again. That they lose their health to make money, and then lose their money to restore their health. That by thinking anxiously about the future, they forget the present, such that they live neither for the present nor the future. That they live as if they will never die, and they die as if they had never lived."

Such is the Round Table "embodied" of compliments, and therefore in need of no blatant expression of same. "We gather here." That says enough when you consider who exactly "we" are. Some of us will never know the extent of who is who. It matters not. Know thyself, and you'll know that your own presence here is worth the riches of kings, and as a complement to the group, the compliment is expressed. We gather here to live our lives better, and with hope of being that helpful BEACON to any others lost in the night. That says it all, my dear friends.

WE gather HERE.
---Aristotle
===

Tomcat (09/23/99; 19:24:14MDT - Msg ID:14227)
***HAPPY BIRTHDAY! O Mighty Oaken Table of Yore...***

I would to take this birthday to toast the knights of this table by telling a short story.

My eleven year old son, Eric, and I have often gone panning for gold but have come home empty handed. My son kept urging me on and recently we bought some new equipment. With our dreams rehabilitated we trudged back into the mountains for another try.

We worked an area called Bedrock Creek for quite awhile. Late in the day, just as my spirits started to sag, I heard a squeal of delight from my son and, as I looked up, I saw him running to me, sluice in hand, pointing to his discovery.

"Dad", he said, "We've struck gold!"

There, glittering in the Colorado sun, lay a our first piece of the noble metal.

While driving home, Eric held his sluice in his lap, talking non-stop about the next day and all it would bring. During these moments I thought about all the physical gold I had stored at home and how this paled in comparison to our discovery of one little piece of gold.

One little piece. One that meant so much.

I thought about the important of that one little peice. Slowly I began realize that gold without dreams is no longer gold. Gold gets its power by being a connecting point to the real things of value: to our hopes, our dreams, to the essence of life itself, to the reasons we live and die.

It was then that I realized how important my fellow knights were to me and I saw the value of our round-table and our bond to one another. I saw at last that our table is like gold itself; a connecting point to our hopes, our dreams, to the essence of life itself, to the reasons we live and die.
===
<;-)

...is consistent with...a mutual yen/dollar/euro devaluation [against gold] scheme.

++++++++++++++

Tonight's Cafe suggests that some new, BIG, long gold hedge funds are operating under the assumption of a big September event that will surge the price of gold. [Bill Murphy continues to offer the best advise anywhere]

This is the only logical explanation for the President's abstruse war policy moves. Since he has no visible support for an invasion, the "Event" referred to must be something else. A known WMD terrorist attack, massive devaluation in response to a gold cartel capitulation or something of that magnitude fits the bill.

This just about the cleanest investment warning signal that one gets.

(1) Actual Administration actions in preparation for an internally and externally unjustified war whose thinly veiled objective is actually the possession of another nation's crude oil reserves because our decade-long false economy is about to fail.

(2) Actual Administration warnings [Cafe sources] to insiders about a very bad DOW and economic future.

(3) Reports of large funds going long gold in advance of a rumored September event.

Don't come crying when gold tops $500 on the way to the stratosphere.

There will not BE entry points AFTER the balloon goes up because ALL the available cheap metal will be acquired in an instant. This remarkable fact of currency crises is not speculation but routine consequenses according to experts in the field [M. Obsfedt, UC Berkeley].

It is good to remind us from whence we came. . .

All: Can anyone tell me of another financial Forum this successful, this important, this focused? It is the standard -- this Table -- to which all others hew and for this I am grateful to those seated here. We have blazed the trail which all others follow. The one that is read, quoted and honored wherever gold folk congregate. You have made this Forum what it is. As a well-known and highly regarded poster once said: "We watch this new gold market together, yes?" Ever changing. Always new. Never losing its luster. Like gold itself. That's what makes this Table what it is.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The US market index futures are pointing to a negative open. The grains are sharply higher on withering crops and dwindling supply after 2 to 3 years of drought and seed stockpiles are being drawn upon. The USD is starting to come under pressure tonight. Petroleum prices are coming off the recent highs, though word from OPEC member Venezuela is that production will not be increased as this month's OPEC meeting in Osaka, Japan (although Saudi deny's it). Meanwhile Gold awaits direction from New York markets, currency markets, and economic data. After a 3 day holiday when investors and institutional people are coming off vacations amid "grim" prospects - tomorrow could be "entertaining".

- Black Blade

Thank you for the opportunity to participate here and for your leadership in making this forum what it is. I thoroughly agree with you -

****** USAGOLD FORUM IS THE BEST ON THE NET ******

I have my party hat and dancing shoes on and look forward to the month of Birthday Celebrations! BTW - I've had a number of compliments on the beautiful French Angel (which I wear around my neck) and everytime someone comments on it I give attribution to USAGOLD....you could kind of consider me a real-time advertisement!! It's forcing me to sharpen my knowledge of economics and Gold "...just what *was* the essay contest topic?....and what *is* the future role of Gold?" Cheers,
Waverider

Of course that's USAGOLD *AND* CPM. :)

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/hemingway_table.cfm?cfid=353342&cftoken=99894749πd=2460Thanks for the feed back on this great article. No I haven't
heard of Peter Warburton (British Economist) before --nor had I read his article at the archives of G.E. However I followed the link from above article to:

"The debasement of world currency: it is inflation,but not as we know it". A very worth while read but one thing puzzles me.At the btm it's signed off by "David W. Tice & Associates" ??? did you notice that --If so any idea on what was going on here? TIA

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_36/b3798008.htm

Snippit:

Weill, who turns 70 in March, is a risk-averse manager who despises surprises. But for months now, he's been blindsided by one mishap after another. A platoon of state and federal investigators is homing in on the question of Citigroup's complicity in each of the defining business catastrophes of this post-bubble era: the fall of Enron Corp. and the great telecom meltdown. In South America, Weill is trying to stanch loan losses in Argentina that already have topped $1 billion while paring the bank's exposure to Brazil's shaky economy. Even Citi's consumer-lending operation, which generates half of its earnings, is afflicted by rising credit-card charge-offs and by conflicts with regulators over its marketing of loans to consumers with bad credit ratings.

The most pressing of these problems are the scandals rocking Wall Street. It's starting to look as though the very model of the financial conglomerate is fundamentally flawed. Sprawling institutions such as Citi, J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, and others are riddled with conflicts of interest, compounded by abuses by aggressive bankers. Consider how banks and brokers have used loans as loss leaders to win lucrative investment-banking assignments or how they have cobbled together dubious structured-finance deals that have helped corporate clients mask their true condition. Or how research analysts at some firms have hyped the stocks of banking clients to investors even as they disparaged them in private e-mails. In the latest revelation, Citi's Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) investment-banking subsidiary gave telecom CEOs preferential access to shares of hot initial public offerings that could be flipped in hours or days at great profit. All of these schemes were designed to lock in fees at the expense of smaller shareholders who, in many cases, were stuck holding worthless securities.


Black Blade: There is still the rumor that Citigroup's Rubin will be subpoenaed to appear before congress to testify about his involvement with Enron. Still it appears that Citigroup may avoid some losses as the IMF loans to the crumbling South American economies will instead go to cover the bank's losses. Citi is also one of the major banks with huge derivative exposure that could severely cripple the bank. It is also a major backer of subprime loans and supplier of problem credit cards to those of questionable credit worthiness. It should get "interesting".

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are tanking again. Japan's Nikkei 225 could easily go sub 9,000 at this rate. The rumor is that another major Japanese bank is in deep trouble and will require a government bailout (still awaiting details or confirmation on this). In other news, Japan has ordered the shutdown of 5 nuclear power plants due to structural problems and maintenance concerns. Nuclear power provides 22% of the country's electricity. A minor energy crisis could be developing.

- Black Blade

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27535-2002Sep2.html
Snippit:

Financial officers of al Qaeda and the Taliban have quietly shipped large quantities of gold out of Pakistan to Sudan in recent weeks, transiting through the United Arab Emirates and Iran, according to European, Pakistani and U.S. investigators. The sources said several shipments of boxes of gold, usually disguised as other products, were taken by small boat from the Pakistani port of Karachi to either Iran or Dubai, and from there mixed with other goods and flown by chartered airplanes to Khartoum, the Sudanese capital. Gold has long been a favorite way of storing wealth in Southeast Asia, the Arabian peninsula and northern Africa. Smuggling gold by sea from Karachi into Iran and Dubai is also a centuries-old activity.


Black Blade: Another good lesson why Gold should be in every ones portfolio. The anonymous and easily transportable wealth preservation vehicle of precious metals is desirable for any freedom loving people to hide from the authoritarian eyes of abusive governments. Governments can seize and freeze assets (if they know about them), yet it is in the best interests of all to stash away some wealth into easily hidden assets. This is a lesson for the Arabs who are heavily invested in the U.S. now that a lawsuit threatens to take their wealth, not to mention the recent Rand report for the Pentagon claiming the Saudis are enemies of the United States. The US has seized foreign assets before (ie Iran, Iraq, Panama, etc.).

Sector,

You said:
This is the only logical explanation for the President's abstruse war policy moves. Since he has no visible support for an invasion, the "Event" referred to must be something else. A known WMD terrorist attack, massive devaluation in response to a gold cartel capitulation or something of that magnitude fits the bill.

I understand the link between an attack on the US of A and an attack by the US of A. But what's the link between a monetary devaluation and a military attack?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={DB6619F9-6D64-476D-9748-E8CA5BD51666}&siteid=yhoo
Snippit:

TOKYO (CBS.MW) - Tokyo's leading Nikkei Average sank to an 18-year intraday low by midday Tuesday. Nagging concerns over banks and the general corporate business outlook triggered selling in both the financial and technology sectors. The Nikkei fell 159.10 points, or 1.7 percent, to end the morning session at 9,362.53 - a level last seen in December 1983 on an intraday basis. Extending losses into a sixth straight session, the Nikkei now stands about 9 percent lower than at the start of the year. Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said although he is closely monitoring stock prices, he has no specific policies to boost the market. "I think stocks are being affected by those of the U.S. The drop in stock prices are proceeding globally," he said. "It is difficult for us to take steps aimed at Japanese stock prices aggressively in such an environment."


Black Blade: Japanese banks also include their stock holdings as part of their net worth. As the stock index crashes, so does the value of the Japanese banks. Add on top of all that, the banks are insolvent and are holding bad outstanding loans on the books that will never ever be paid back. It is no wonder that the Japanese government is no longer going to guarantee bank deposits come April Fools Day. I expect to see a renewed "Japanese Gold Rush" as that date approaches. "Interesting Times"

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Stock%20Market%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_stocks&s=APXQkPRW4QXNpYW4g� Mizuho, the world's largest bank, slid 7.2 percent to 231,000 yen. It was the most active stock by value, with 9.5 billion yen in shares changing hands.

Banks were the second-biggest decliners on the Topix, on concern that the Tokyo government may shift its fund out of the local banks after it conducted assessments of deposit data, capital levels and credit ratings at Mizuho and 14 other lenders.

The city, which earlier said it may close accounts or stop making new deposits at banks it deemed riskiest, hasn't released details of the reviews.

``If the conditions are good, we'd do businesses with anybody including foreign banks,'' Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara said in an interview. ``Citibank has the best record here in Japan, so it could be one of the candidates.''

UFJ Holdings Inc., Japan's No. 4 lender by assets, dropped 4.2 percent to 252,000 yen. Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc., the world's No. 5 lender, shed 2.8 percent to 773,000 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., the world's fourth-largest, declined 3.2 percent to 585 yen.
___________________
I thought 9,500 on Nikkei was the trigger for default.
Watching this unfold is amazing. The Japanese government
doesn't trust Mizuho? Going from Mizuho to Citi is like jumping
out of the frying pan into the fire!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&t=1d&l=on&z=b&q=lReal time ...not a pretty sight!

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1399659SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - U.S. West Coast ports braced for a possible labor slowdown this week after the union representing thousands of longshore workers walked out of contract talks with port employers.

Union leaders were not available for comment on Monday, which was the Labor Day holiday.

But port employers warned the breakdown of contract negotiations in San Francisco on Monday could mean work slowdowns in ports that handle $300 billion worth of goods each year, or more than half of all U.S. trade.

"The union just fired the first shot," Joseph Miniace, president of the Pacific Maritime Association, which represents port employers in their talks with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union.

"They opened the door to work slowdowns, which we have said time and again will not be tolerated."

Union officials have said no decisions on possible work slowdowns or other moves were expected before Tuesday, when negotiators return from Labor Day rallies.

Union leaders allowed the temporary contract to expire at 5 p.m. on Sunday after talks foundered on the issue of new technology for the ports -- innovations employers say are necessary to keep ports competitive but that union leaders fear may cost union jobs.

Longshore workers with the ILWU -- one of the nation's most powerful and best-paid unions -- have been working on day-to-day contracts since July 1, when their last contract expired.

The negotiations cover some of the country's most important ports, including Los Angeles, Oakland and Seattle, and economic analysts have said big disruptions in port traffic could have serious effects for the struggling U.S. economy.
_____________
This would be the nail in the coffin of any US economic recovery.
When it rains it pours.

in September might not have anything to do with invading Iraq. The U S has been turning out the new colored money, for some time. It would not surprise me to see a world wide recall of all greenbacks, to be exchanged for the new money. Illegal and counterfeit money will be impossible to turn in. There will be a time limit to exchange the old money for the new. The new money will be partially backed by gold, also. Just my HO.

http://www.rense.com/general25/dedl.htmComing soon!

To All,
Will try to get a read from my neighbors with regards to the markets over here. Not a pretty sight from my end. Got my Krugs and pre-1933's. Any insights on taking a futures contract out and a read on when?

Peter Warburton : "The debasement of World currency" and author of "Debt and Delusion", simply found the right echo at the right moment by D. Tice. Rothshild's Reuters, decides, *when*, *what*, should come to the general public.
Correct Timing of the appropiate message ! That's what these media tools are for, isn't it.

We must certainly NOT forget that 98% of the general public isn't aware "at all" about the gravity of all the underlying rots ! They never were in the past and will never have the time to investigate any deeper on what they might suspect. Therefore a certain press with doomish undertones is automatically sidelined into some very small boxes. Freedom of speech is theoretically OK for as long as your audience remains very limited. That's why most "authorities" have to use such an extreme cautious language, when pointing to, what's going wrong. Sir Allan as the best example of cryptic talk.

Tell the TERRIBLE "truth" in all its naked uglyness...and nobody believes you ! Fantasize and dream on...and you gather masses. Who's ever questioning the essence of his purchasing digits ? Debasement or depreciation of its currency are difficult to grasp notions. BUT an exploding POG, will make this suddenly, VERY clear and instantly understandable for everyone. That's why we patiently wait for that big/biggest GOLD - POG - GAPPING, of all times.
The psychological effect on the general public, will have a tremendous impact. This after more than 20 years of Gold "conditioning". We never paid enough attention to the extend of Gold's enormous psychological impact on all men and women in the street ! The financial fraternity, knows this very well. War-dramas (atrocities) are perfectly hidden these days but an exploding POG is a naked fact that can't be hidden for the globe as a whole. Impossible to relativate an exploding POG. No need to influence people's perceptions in case of such event. etc...etc...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DI03Ak01.htmlMADRID - The extravagant vacations of Saudi King Fahd and his royal retinue in Spain are disproportionate for a country suffering severe political and social problems.

The 81-year-old king of Saudi Arabia, Fahd bin Abdul Aziz Al- Saud, accompanied by nearly all of his children and family members and an entourage of more than 3,000, has been vacationing on Spain's Costa del Sol since August 14.

In the posh Mediterranean resort town of Marbella, 450 kilometers southeast of Madrid, he stays in his palace, a replica of the White House named "Mar Mar". Just the preparations of the palace for his visit ran to US$185 million. Luxury villas and 300 rooms in five-star hotels were rented for the rest of the royal family in and around Marbella.

Chic restaurants and jewelry shops have cheerfully prepared for the Saudi visitors, who spent $90 million on their last stay, in 1999. During this year's visit, which is to be one month longer than the last one, they are expected to spend as much as $300 million.
Although a boon for Spain's tourist industry, that sum indicates the Saudi leaders' lack of concern for their own people.

Emma Bonino, an Italian member of the European Parliament, said the royal family has more than $600 billion in funds abroad, and is "more interested in investing them on the international markets than at home".

Saudi Arabia ranked 71st out of 173 nations on the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) latest Human Development Index, which measures factors like life expectancy, school enrollment and distribution of wealth. Ahead of Saudi Arabia are nations like Thailand, Venezuela, Colombia and Slovenia.

Per capita income in Saudi Arabia plunged from $35,000 to $7,000 in just 20 years, while the country's gross national product grew just 1 percent a year on average during the same period. At the same time, its 3.8 percent demographic growth rate is one of the highest in the world.

Meanwhile, discriminatory policies remain in place, such as those that keep the princes and their families separate from the rest of the population, and especially from the immigrants, who keep the economy running, not to mention the discrimination against women.

Evidence of that was experienced by Bonino herself when she visited Saudi Arabia as part of a delegation sent by the European Parliament's commission of foreign affairs.
When they were received by the chair of the Saudi parliament, Salih bin Abdullah bin Humaid, the women deputies were "denied the honor of a handshake or eye-to-eye contact", said Bonino, while explanations that Islam considers women to be different from men were addressed to the male deputy guests.

Several Spanish media outlets reported that a British agency has provided a large group of women to accompany the Saudi men during their vacations in Spain, on two conditions: the women must be young and blonde, and must be replaced every 15 days.

Although prostitution is legal in Spain, procuring is punishable by law. Nevertheless, no authority or organization has moved against the British agency, even though the contract was made public.

Nor has the illegal hiring of around 50 active-service police officers to moonlight as bodyguards for the Saudi king, princes and princesses been questioned. The arrangement has been reported by several media outlets, with no reaction from the government.
On the contrary, King Fahd has been given a royal welcome and was visited in Mar Mar by King Juan Carlos, although according to protocol, the Spanish sovereign should have received the visiting monarch.

Fahd will also receive visits from Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar and US Secretary of State Colin Powell. The Saudi monarch and Powell are expected to discuss present or future US actions against Iraq, a touchy subject on which the two countries are publicly divided.

Another question that may be addressed is a lawsuit that a group of Saudis are preparing against the US government and several media outlets for "psychological and economic damages" suffered since the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. The lawsuit was announced August 21 in Washington by Saudi lawyer Katih al Shamri.

The dispute over the succession to the Saudi throne further compounds Saudi Arabia's social problems and the difficulties arising from the conflict in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is important to the United States, as it accounts for 25 percent of the world's oil reserves and 10 percent of global oil production.
________________
Can you believe the corruption of the Saudi Royal family?
The decadence? Good Grief. Can this regime last very long?
If I were a Saudi citizen, I'd say time for a change! WOW

http://www.bep.treas.gov/document.cfm/10/63/1666"So what does this portend for the future of the U.S. Dollar? Devaluation! There can be no other explanation for the introduction of a colored currency, which will represent a bifurcated dollar policy of a domestic-use-only dollar for Americans and a foreign dollar overseas. The U.S. version of the currency would be valid only within U.S. borders."

I'm sorry, but this really feels like fear-mongering. There _is_ another explanation. One that is clear, simple and doesn't make me want to reach for the foil hat. From the June 20 Bureau of Engraving press release:

"According to the U.S. Secret Service, $47.5 million in counterfeit money entered into circulation in fiscal year 2001. Of this amount, 39 percent was computer generated, compared with only 0.5 percent in 1995."

"These notes will co-circulate with older series notes. The U.S. government has never recalled or devalued its currency."

While the semantics of 'devalued' can be debated, the intent in this context seems quite clear. And so does the statement, in no uncertain terms, that the new money will co-circulate.

BlackJack (usagold.com msg#: 84189) Can you believe the corruption of the Saudi Royal family?
The decadence? Good Grief. Can this regime last very long?
If I were a Saudi citizen, I'd say time for a change! WOW

Thirty years ago I taught at a University which had a number of students from the Middle East. I had several discussions with students from Saudi Arabia on the politics there. Even at that time, when the people had a much higher per capita income than presently, the feeling among the educated was that the leadership was not investing enough oil money back into the country to hopefully build up some sort of economic base to provide against the inevitable day when the cheap (to obtain) oil ran out.

Those students wanted new leadership and felt that, were the US not providing political backing to the status quo, there would be new leadership--quite quickly. Hence, even though they were profiting by a US education, they were quite negative toward US policy. I suspect those feelings are considerably stronger now.

@ Zhisheng Very interesting idea-that the US keeps Saudi Royals
in power. With the death of King Fahd looming, what happens
in Saudi will be of great importance for oil, gold, world
economy. Anti-americanism is rising in Saudi so it is very
possible we could wind up with a hostile regime. In that case,
how the US administration would react is something to watch
closely. These are very interesting times.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southeastasia/view/17894/1/.html
Snippit:

Cambodian workmen have unearthed 27 solid gold Buddha statuettes, buried for hundreds of years beneath the foundations of a ruined pagoda deep in the jungle. A special police guard had been placed around the pagoda in the central province of Kompong Thom, 120 kilometres north of the capital Phnom Penh, to protect the statues and stop looters flocking to the site.

Black Blade: Yep, it's those dang pesky barbarous relics again. And they need a "special police guard" too. "Barbarous relics eh? Hmmm�

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020903/japan_markets_5.html

Snippit:

TOKYO (AP) -- Tokyo's key stock index sank more than 3 percent Tuesday to a new 19-year-low, despite government reassurances that Japan's economy has bottomed out. The dollar was at 117.62 yen, down 0.82 yen from late Monday in Tokyo. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average lost 304.59 points, or 3.12 percent, to close at 9,217.04. It was the Nikkei's lowest close since Sept. 19, 1983, when it was at 9,141.25.

Traders said banking stocks led the market plunge, as investors tried to lock up profits before the first anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks and other major events in coming weeks. Shares of Mizuho Holdings, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking and Mitsubishi-Tokyo Financial Group were the hardest hit because investors worried that economic uncertainty and rising bankruptcies could add to the already massive bad-loan problems at the nation's banks, analysts said.


Black Blade: Only a fool would buy shares of a Japanese bank. It's going to get much worse. The rumor is that a major bank is near failure - Sumitomo Mitsui Banking? The rumor is that the Japanese government will use government employee pension funds to prop up the bank. "Interesting Times"

Also, not only will Consolidated Freightways add 15,000+ to the growing "Bone Pile", but IBM announced that they will likely add another 4,000 for their contribution of nonessential personnel.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Unless the US stock market futures reverse course by the open, we could be looking at a stock market crash at the open. Meanwhile Gold is slightly positive, the USD is falling, and petroleum is falling on weak demand due to economic collapse. Looks like a lot of "entertainment" in store for Wall Street.

- Black Blade

The USD just broke through support on rumors of "political" concerns. CNBC did not specify as it is only a rumor at present. Nevertheless, the US dollar just fell through the floor and the euro rocketed higher to bounce along at about parity. The "entertainment" appears to have begun. Oh yeah, Gold bounced a buck higher.

- Black Blade

Make that a $1.50 higher and rising.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Euro markets are crashing as the euro rockets against the weak US dollar. Corporate earnings are expected to be very poor so investors are bailing out. The US markets have been reporting some earnings, though many are now questioning the quality of those earnings (ie "pro forma" and "operating", etc.). In a word - "Grim".

- Black Blade

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/03/rtr710643.htmlSnip:

NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Amid disclosures that investment- banking clients of Salomon Smith Barney pocketed huge profits from hot IPOs, the New York attorney general's office is looking into the activity of senior Salomon executives who worked closely with former research analyst Jack Grubman, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition Tuesday.

Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is seeking to determine if roles played by Grubman's bosses resulted in firm-wide conflicts of interest involving the sale of now-worthless telecommunications stocks during the late 1990s, The Journal reported, citing people with knowledge of the probe.
..........
In addition, they have interviewed telecommunications industry executives who were Salomon clients about the practices of Salomon officials, the Journal reported, citing people close to the situation.

While Grubman is still at the heart of the inquiry, the attorney general's office is specifically interested in the activities of Michael Carpenter, the head of Citigroup Inc.'s (nyse: C - news - people) Salomon unit, Eduardo Mestre, chairman of Salomon's investment bank, and Kevin McCaffrey, head of Salomon's stock-research department and Mr. Grubman's direct supervisor, the Journal reported.
**********
Misetich

Even though we might expect the fine to be a slap on the wrist ultimately- the collateral damage is severe as pending investors lawsuits and reputational damage will hit Citi

The neighbours must be getting nauseated by the continous stench created as US corporations air their dirty linen

Got gold?

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/03/rtr710598.htmlSnip:

NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - About 4,000 people are likely to lose their jobs as IBM Corp. (nyse: IBM - news - people) completes its acquisition of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC's [PWC.UL] consulting arm, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

It has not been determined how many will come from the Pricewaterhouse consulting group, which has about 30,000 workers, the Journal reported. It was also uncertain how many will come from IBM's 50,000-employee consulting arm, known within IBM as Business Innovation Services, the Journal reported.
********
Misetich

More additions for the "BonePile" - Big Blue layoffs are of a silent smelly fart type - noiseless - as they decline to announce such layoffs publicly -

Got gold?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020902/ap_wo_en_po/iraq_saddam_1Snip:

By WAIEL FALEH, Associated Press writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq - President Saddam Hussein ( news - web sites) gave his own explanation Monday of why the United States was insisting on removing him from power � because Iraq was preventing it from controlling Middle East oil.
"America thinks it must control the world," he was quoted as saying to an envoy from Belarus. "America thinks if it controls the oil of the Middle East then it will control the world," said Saddam, whose comments were carried by the official Iraqi News Agency.

The United States, according to Saddam, has found out that trying to control the world through military means won't work, so it has turned to control Middle East oil, which he said represented 65 percent of world reserves.

"By destroying Iraq, America thinks it could control the oil of the Middle East and force the prices it wants on clients like France, China, Japan and other countries of the world," Saddam said. One reason for the continuation of U.N. sanctions imposed on Iraq since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait, he added, was to "prevent former Soviet Union countries from cooperating economically with Iraq."
.........
On Monday, Saddam said that by controlling world oil and its prices, the United States would be able to determine the growth of world economy.

"Europe has found out about this fact lately, so its stand in support of Iraq is not based on humanitarian or legal grounds but in self-defense of its future, independence and freedom of interests," said Saddam.

"Iraq's battle is no longer a national one, but it is for humanity ..."
**********
Misetich
Saddam is a continuous thorn on the US side - last year he opted for Euros for Iraq's oil (Iran has recently hinted it may follow his lead) - now he's befriended the Ruskies with billions of $ deals and he's been able to obtain solidarity from the majority of Gulf States

Got gold?

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/03/business/worldbusiness/03CHIN.htmlSnip:

A "key driver in China's relations with terrorist-sponsoring governments is its dependence on foreign oil to fuel its economic development," the report said. "This dependency is expected to increase over the coming decade."

The Chinese are trying to increase the production of oil and natural gas at home and buy more energy from elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, with projects from Australia to Siberia, and from their continental shelf to the deserts of Xinjiang province in the west, Chinese energy company executives and diplomats here said.

But many Western experts predict that China's energy needs will grow far beyond those reserves and that recent efforts, including the increased use of natural gas, can only slow but not reverse the country's dependence on the Middle East, which now supplies three-fifths of China's oil imports. "They are going to be short such a significant amount of crude that there isn't any choice except to rely more on the Middle East," said David Pietz, a specialist on Chinese energy at Washington State University.

China accounted for a quarter of the world's growth in oil use over the last decade, during the last several years becoming the fastest-growing consumer of oil. By 2030, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris, it will import as much oil as the United States does now, an eightfold increase over its current import levels.

"This makes China's energy development critical not only for China but for the world at large," said Robert Priddle, the agency's executive director.
.........
Another result has been an emphasis on energy production instead of conservation. Chinese gasoline prices now rank with those in the United States as among the lowest in the world for oil-importing countries, and are a third of retail prices in Europe, where steep taxes push the price to $4 a gallon or more to discourage gasoline use. The National People's Congress, China's Parliament, has been discussing the imposition of steep gasoline taxes here for two years, but has taken no action.
**********
Misetich

The era of cheap energy prices is over - Lets follow this amazing oil chess game

Got gold?

http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/020902/2002090214.htmlSnip:

The press center of the Iraqi ministry of information announced on Sunday that a Saudi royal family member will start today a visit to Iraq, which is the first of its kind by a Saudi official since cutting of relations between the two states in 1990.

The statement explained that "a Saudi prince from the Royal family will arrive at Saddam's international airport in Baghdad today ( Monday) in a visit to Iraq on board of a plane for the UAE Gulf airline."

The Iraqi press center gave no mention to the name of the prince nor any further details.

However, a great change has been made in the relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia following the reconciliation took place between Iraq's Deputy Chairman of Revolution Command Council Izzat Ibrahim and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah Ibn Abdul Aziz on the sideline of the Arab summit which was held in Beirut by the end of March.

Riyadh has repeatedly announced during the few past weeks that it is against striking Iraq.

********
Misetich

Interesting tidbit of information

Got gold?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020830/financial_corp_foreigners_1.htmlSnip:

By Dena Aubin

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Overseas net purchases of U.S. corporate bonds fell by 18 percent in the first half of the year, according to U.S. Treasury Department data, as a weakening dollar and battered confidence in corporate America hurt demand.
Foreigners bought a net $114.8 billion of U.S. corporate bonds in the first half, down from $140.1 billion a year earlier.
**********
Misetich

Sooner than later the US $ will have to adjust to reality

Got gold?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27535-2002Sep2.htmlCheck out the above link and let me know what you think. I believe that there will be an attempt to portray gold in such a way that to advocate it would be considered un-American per the bought and paid for media.

JMHO

The Paper Avalanche is commencing.

PA

http://www.etherzone.com/Making_News_Now10.htmlGood read

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/B35BE33722289E5C85256C2800644329?OpenDocument
From sharefin.

......that is too good not to post in its' entirety.Comment on Analysts are named in paragraph 2.
Date 2002/09/02 Mon

Name Nick Laird
Email Address sharefin@cairns.net.au
Subject TimYou do yourself a disservice

By not thinking about the problems at hand before casting labels and throwing names about.

The aspects I raised in my comments are backed by facts & I don't see why you caste them aside so callously instead of looking into what you disagree with and raising rational points of discussion. Perchance you are employed to paint a rosy picture or is it that you don?t understand the supply/demand aspects of the gold markets.


To whit:
These are facts from the OCC website.
JP Morgan are currently holding gold derivatives with a notional value of $46.04 billion
Their total derivative positions are $23.2 trillion.

JP Morgan currently controls 63% of all the gold derivatives in all American banks.

In 1995 Q1 total US gold derivatives were 34 billion and then they tripled to 99.5 billion in 2000 Q1. Currently they are at 73.5 billion.

These are facts available for all to understand re the growth of gold derivatives.
And kindly supplied by the US Government.

No conspiracy here ? just exponential growth of paper derivatives.

Now to some supply & production numbers.
From 1988 through to 2000 gold production from mine supply has totaled 29,856 tons
From 1988 through to 2000 gold demand has totaled 45,884 tons.

The rate of production to demand is approx 65% with the other 35% or 15,763 tons having been sourced from Central Bank sales, old gold scrap, net hedging or disinvestment.
These are the facts sourced from GMFS data.

Since 1950 gold production from mine supply has totaled 77,676 tons.
If this represents 65% of demand then demand would have been approx 119,500 tons which means that approx 42,000 tons has come been sourced from Central Bank sales, old gold scrap, net hedging or disinvestment.

In 1950 mine production was 827 tons (actual)
In 1960 mine production was 1067 tons (actual)
In 1970 mine production was 1478 tons (actual)
In 1980 mine production was 1219 tons (actual)
In 1990 mine production was 2133 tons (actual)
In 2000 mine production was 2573 tons (actual)

So from the above numbers you can see that production has been expanding through the years.
And hence demand which is mine supply plus approx 35% has been expanding at the same rate of growth.

Using the 65/35 production/stockpiles numbers one can presume that demand was approx:
1272 tons in 1950
1641 tons in 1960
2274 tons in 1970
1875 tons in 1980
3096 tons in 1990 (actual)
3946 tons in 2000 (actual)

Unfortunately I don?t have the statistical data for demand prior to 1988.

Now the stockpile or dishoarding numbers (approx 35%) are:
445 tons in 1950
574 tons in 1960
796 tons in 1970
656 tons in 1980
969 tons in 1990 (actual)
1373 tons in 2000 (actual)

So here it?s quite apparent that demands on the Central Banks, old gold scrap, net hedging or disinvestments is in an accelerating trend.
Now we all know that many Central banks over the last few years have either sold their reserves or leased them to the gold pool to help shore up this ever increasing shortfall number.

Just the other day you posted commentary on the Reserve Bank of Australia which were proud to announce that they received $22 million in return on their $1,500 million in gold which at 1.2 percentage returns is self admission that their total gold pool is out & leased into the markets.

Back in 1996 the Reserve Bank of Australia held 250 odd tons ? now they hold near to none.

Many other Central Banks across the globe have followed the same pattern surrendering their gold reserves to either the US or to London.

The IMF have even rebuked some Central Banks for still holding the physical gold leased out as assets on their books when it really isn?t.
----
So we have now pieced together the facts that gold derivatives within JP Morgan have grossly swollen these last five years and that JP Morgan is a dominant player to the extent that they dwarf all others.

That the gold deficit has been a heavy drain on above ground stocks these last 50 years and is exponentially increasing in an environment where production has topped out and appears to be falling.

That the central banks have already dishoarded much of their hoards and have no reached a point in time where they are unwilling to add more. Many of them have already divested all that they can and cannot contribute any more into a situation where more is needed.
----

Where in the above reasoning backed by facts is any conspiracy?
Cannot you understand what is happening in these markets and is occurring right under your very nose?

You as an investigative reporter should be looking more into the anomalies of the gold markets rather than just printing what you are told to do.

As many have complained ?The Mining Web? does seem to have a biased & jaundiced view of late.

I challenge you to take up my call to find out exactly how much physical is actually changing hands in this supposed closing out of hedges. How much of that 365 tons this last six months has actually been physical being shifted from miner to Bullion Bank to Central Bank & thus closing out the positions.
To find out where mere fiat is changing hands and only one side of the position has been removed, or where physical is actually being closed out & returned to the Central Banks from whom this leasing first came.
I would think that you would be shocked in your naivety.

You can easily fob me off with comments of conspiracy and unwittingly refusing to enter into conversation about these numbers & the state of the gold supply/demand situation but that only shows your ignorance or unwillingness to find out the truth. The truth of the problems are held within the understanding of the numbers above.

Like with the way the sharemarkets & the easy money that they stood for became a bubble that burst so to has the gold market become a bubble and is now seeking to unwind the paper promises that cannot be forfilled.

Many believed that they would get 20% a year and retire rich but the reality is far from the truth.

Gold has been papered over so much in the last five years that it?s going to take far higher prices to squeeze the excesses out.

Like I said earlier there?s enough momentum & disequilibrium already inherent within the gold markets to force the price well higher. The added stimuli of financial meltdowns will only be adding fuel to the fire.

In all the above there?s three basic facts which cannot be refuted.
1/ Paper derivative have exploded these last few years.
2/ The gold supply/demand equation has built up a serious deficit position.
3/ That Central Banks have basically run out of stocks to dishoard.

Show me the conspiracy here or go & do your own homework.
The facts are plain & clear & to dispute them suggests of agenda.

I would hazard a guess that when all the numbers come out & that when the players come clean, the truth will be revealed about demand this last decade.
The gold market has created a huge appetite which can only be fed through growing production rates.

And therein lies the crux of the problem.

As I said in my earlier post too much paper has been sold against the physical & only through far higher prices will this problem be alleviated.

JP Morgan & their derivatives book will only add fuel to the fire.
And your jaw & credibility will drop when the price of gold rises to alleviate this problem.

Nick

It's needed ......to combat what will certainly be a rush to gold and other commodities which will stress to breaking points all the Fed's commodities manipulation efforts.

Once the gold cartel capitulates, they must be ready to devalue immediately in order to save their largest banks from instant credit downgrades as a result of tens of billions in gold derivatives which have no loss ceilings as the pog rises. Subsequent default on their monstrous other derivatives books must be covered as well.

Only by doing so can the Fed dilute their big bank's debt and exposure to impending losses. This debt and the banks themselves must be saved in that their derivatives are so intertwined with all US finace, that their failure IS the US systemic financial failure which rightly may be labled as US and World Financial Armageddon.

So a devaluation is the out.

As far as the Treasury claiming it never devalued it's currency [Per davefinger's post last evening]. There have been two devaluations vs. gold in the last 68 years. 1934 and then again in 1971.

All this may just be a pipe dream and I hope there is still some more time to acquire metal, but the developments seem to me to support a deval vs. a slow uncontrollable inflation which would also have to be synchronized with a Japanese inflation in order to avoid wild imbalances.

The post is from the latest Midas (James Joyce Table) at GATA.

I sent the original heads-up on this issue To Bill Murphy last week and there would appear to be some momentum and substance to it.
The poster is David Morgan. His findings have been exactly the same as mine. I too have been testing sterling jewelry in many stores, from the very largest to the smallest retailers of sterling jewelry and the alarming results prompted some action on my part.

I have also contacted the Competition Board of Canada and formerly informed them of my findings. (Yes, this is an international issue.)

That is all I am prepared to say on this forum about this story except to state that this would seem to be a very large and serious problem involving a good proportion of sterling silver jewelry produced for the mass market retailers. It would NOT seem to involve small custom made (high-end) manufacturers OR even this SAME jewelry that was manufactured more than 3 years ago or so. This is a developing and quite recent change in the complexion of the jewelry retailing industry.

It would also seem to be a serious one.

Best regards,

Galearis

There never was a room in which all the world's sheep met and agreed to eat grass. But all the world's sheep do eat grass. Is this a conspiracy? According to the dictionary, it is. Most words, especially in English, can be used in more than one way, and this usage is correct. 'Conspiracy' can also mean other things; there are other forms of conspiracy. One meaning often understood is: "[definition 2] an evil, unlawful, treacherous, or surreptitious plan formulated in secret by two or more persons;...." But the following is also a conspiracy: [definition 5] "any concurrence in action; combination in bringing about a given result [i.e., that all sheep will eat grass - my comment]." So to be a conspriacy, secrecy and formal agreement are not necessarily a requirement.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/03/business/03ECON.htmlBy RICHARD W. STEVENSON
NYT
JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Sept. 1

[�

One of the most provocative ideas was put on the table by Lars E. O. Svensson of Princeton, who proposed what amounted to a big but temporary currency devaluation as a way to encourage prices and demand to rise. His idea was widely criticized; Michael Mussa, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund who is now with the Institute of International Economics, noted that the fund's articles of confederation expressly forbid devaluations for the purpose of increasing international competitiveness.

Mr. Svensson also ignited a heated debate by proposing that central banks explicitly acknowledge how much their inflation-fighting policies are costing the economy in lost output and jobs.

His idea was a new twist on the old debate about whether central banks should focus exclusively on price stability or should also seek maximum economic growth. It won some support from other economists who said that central banks are always after maximum economic growth even if they cannot openly acknowledge it in the face of pressure from markets, which can severely punish any perceived lack of inflation-fighting willpower.

But his idea was mostly criticized either as unworkable, since no one has a clear idea of what an economy's maximum sustainable growth rate really is, or unwise because it would inevitably distract from a central bank's inflation fighting role.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

That the deval idea was discussed at ALL in Jackson Hole is a clue that behind the scenes it is the topic du jour.

Forget about the IMF's rules red herring. Disinformation like that is always strategically placed to deflect serious resistance. As for the IMF invoking rules, how about the IMF rule that allows central banks to double count gold reserves?

CorrectionThe poster of the quoted piece was NOT David Morgan, it was meant to call the situation to the attention OF Mr. Morgan. Mr. Morgan is not the poster of those beginning words.

My apologies are extended to the original poster on the Gata web site and to Mr. Morgan for my error.

Best regards,

G

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20020903_509.html"Seattle, Consolidated Freightways, one of the nation's largest trucking companies, decided to shut down its U.S. operations after 73 years, saying on Labor Day that about 15,500 workers would lose their jobs. The company said it planned to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.

Hundreds showed up for work on the holiday only to find the offices locked, according to a union spokesman, who called it "a slap in the face." "That's like telling your wife you're getting divorced on Valentine's Day," said Carlos N. Ramos, Teamsters Local 776 spokesman in Harrisburg, Pa."

Waverider: 15,500 truck on over to the Bone Pile.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0FD21577%2D5964%2D4060%2D865D%2D022B9DA82287%7D&siteid=mktwAn interesting article on oil, Al-Qaeda, Iraq, Iran and imminent attacks against the U.S.

Many thanks for bringing up, Nick Laird's (Sharefin) piece on offer/demand figures. BUT.......!!!

There is "only" one (1) figure that is relatively (!)reliable : Goldmine production of newly mined Gold.
The demand-statistics are misleading. Simply because of double counting. Des-investment and scrap are goldtrades with a seller and a buyer. Same gold has been bought twice or x-times and comes each time on the yearly demand statistics. Gold is heavely traded in India (Far East). The only thing that counts is the statistic on the total amount of Gold, physically, present in that country. An estimated 10.000 tonnes. If next year there is 10.800 tonnes inside the country, we can say that "net" demand was 800 tonnes.

It was Chris Thompson (WGC) who timidly raised the question of more reliable statistics (read : goldinvestment statistics).
This to monitor/manage/promote, Gold Investment in its different forms.
Don't forget that Gold isn't consumed and that the only real demand for Gold is the amount of yearly new mined Gold added to the existing stash.

So, it would be much more interesting to know the evolution of Gold's rotation-speed/momentums. How much Gold is kept/holded/hoarded for how long by the same owner before it changes hands again ?
How much of the total above refined is locked in non-tradable jewelry and proportionate to tradable investment-bullion. How much total physical is actually present in "official" vaults and private *holders* ? What are the different goldinvestment-trends ? etc...

If statistics could give evidence that more and more Gold is bought for pure "investment" purposes, rather than fancy jewelry...than we have a starting point for goldmanagement at the mining level. But such statistics aren't allowed to be published. TOP SECRET !
Gold becoming scarce means that there is an increasing investment demand for bullion, rather than industrial demand. Scarce Gold means that people are holding longer to their Gold wealth and that there is a tendency (demand) to hoard more of the available Gold for long/longer term "investment" purposes. It is with this kind of figures that we could gather much more evidence of what is happening.

Not having these (goldoligarcy insider-known) figures is evidence of...

These fundamental differences in Gold "demand" are managed by POG itself. Gold Jewelry will always have a demand that can be served by the relative flexibility of mine-production. It is "investment" demand for Gold that is much more delicate to control. That's why the paper market was invented and promoted. The prospect of serious Gold investment (hoarding) was always a nightmare.

I've come to the point that all these statistics have no significance as to "value" one's physical Gold in possession. What difference would it, theoretically, make, if tomorrow, there's not one single ounce mined anymore and nobody wants to hold/value, Gold !? What will happen to the jewelry industry if tomorrow Gold is valued at 30.000 of present dollars ? This to absolutely, relativate the statistical offer/demand impacts on Gold's *intrinsic* VALUE !

Gold is and remains *THE* ultimate reserve, officially and privately. Valuing Reserve-Gold has little or nothing to do with the offer/demand equations. And it is the official price-manipulation that affects "private" reserve-Gold decisions/perceptions/policies.

Easier to understand when one only considers his physical gold ownership in total dis-connection with paper-prices (read goldmine fluctuations). One day, Gold, itself, will not allow to be abused for the amusement of "speculation" or gambling. Gold is a very serious thing. For the time being, too serious, for the majority of modern man. Gold had to be ridiculed.

Thank you both for bringing this aspect again on the table.

I want to say hi first, many of you seem like old friends as I have been reading this wonderfull site for 3 years. Next I will say thank you as I have stole many a posts and used them on the site where I call home. You guys are great! Black Blade you are relentless and are everywhere.. Do you sleep?

I wanted to clear up the silver issue with the magnets. I went to Walmart and just got back, I tested 20 Sterling Silver chains and none of them were attracted by the magnet! Some of the fastners for the chains did attract - my assesment is this post was BS..

Tested at Wallmart St. Cloud MN store

Silver is King

The soft melodic strains of the tune "Happy Birthday", played by a roving string band directed by PH in LA, echo throughout the Castle. TC taps his staff and announces:

"Your ATTENTION, Please !!
Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest during this Month of "Fourth Birthday Celebrations" !
Under the auspices of SIR MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills in a GOLD PRICE SETTLEMENT GUESSING CONTEST !"

A cheer rises from the assembled, and SIR MK rushes into the courtroom. "What is happening?", he asks !

"TC is announcing the Happy Birthday GOLD PRICE SETTLEMENT GUESSING CONTEST", advises BB !

SIR MK astoundingly replies, "BUT, I did not hear ALL the TRUMPETS and DRUMS blasting away and shaking the rafters with the noise !"

"OK !" replies BB, "We didn't think that you really wished to hear them, BUT if you wish ---"

"NO, NO !" interrupts SIR MK, "Save them for the BIG "Happy Birthday Essay Contest" that we are PLANNING !"

BB smiles, and returns his attention to TC's announcement, as SIR MK returns to the Throne Room.
---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
=====
OK ALL -- EARLY "Price Guesses" give you RIGHTS to your choice. Please be sure to check to see if anyone has taken your desired Price Guess so as to not be disqualified !! Be sure to enter your prognostication before someone takes your lucky guess. What is it that is said about holding your breath until one turns "BLUE"? Turn "GOLDEN" soon.

The Old Wiz is seeing that there will be over TWO hundred entries this time, so do not wait toooo long before you make that claim of the correct settlement price !! In order to start things off in the correct direction, the Hobbits shall make their entry SOON. BTW, Tuesday's (9-3-02) GC2Z Settlement Price was $315.0 and ranged in NY between $314.1 and $315.9 -- WHEREAS, the SPOT Gold price was at about $314. ----About 90,000 GC2Z contracts are "Open",

GOOD LUCK ALL ! and HAPPY BIRTHDAY USAGOLD FORUM !!!!
<;-)

Anyone discovering/verifying this fraud needs to:

(1) report it to the local authorities (BBB, law enforcecment)
(2) Notify local media broadcasters

Notifying store managements is not enough. The news medai would cover a story like this far and wide. Whether it's a small scale operation or not will then come out. If you see it, report it.

Gold is important to THIS owner because he knows that he has something that will assure financial peace of mind and allow him to safety provide for his extended family in time of crisis.
<;-)

Gold is important and serves as insurance for me. I'm a physical bullion holder because I believe gold is real money, and will increase in value over the next few years where FRN's will lose value. Of all the assets I have, I trust the gold the most.

$$$$ 318.60 $$$$

Movin on up!

Movin on up!

Of equal importance to the sterling silver jewelry thing, I want to make sure everyone at this forum knows about a similar SCAM!! This deserves our fullest attention and gold can wait until we get to the bottom of it!

I have been doing extensive research and found that bartenders everywhere are watering down drinks!!!!!!! When you take your first sip eveything seems fine, but by the time you get to the bottom of your glass it is all watery. I wanted to make sure my judgement wasn't off from the effects of the booze, so I have been taking samples for official testing! I have reached in my glass as soon as it is served to grab out a few sample pieces of my drinks to put in a ziploc bag. My samples always melt before I can get them to the lab man but he tells me it is only a change in phase from solid to liquid but the composition doesn't change.

The samples are almost always 100% water with just traces of booze!!! This needs our forum's full attention!! It seems that bartenders are sneaking water into our drinks disguised as ice. It is invisible and you can't see it after it melts!! I have talked to management and they say the ice isn't a scam but is to make the drink "cold" they say. HA! Isn't that what a refrigerator is for???

They also say the spring steel in a sterling chain's clasp will positively respond to the force induced by a magnetic field brought in near proximity. They say this causes such a ferromagnetic body like the spring steel component freely suspended in a silver chain's clasp to deflect beyond the sole influence of earth's gravimetric force. Yeah right!!!

I was somewhat of a doubter at first (hence being only 18K), but I've come to realize that gold is in fact the only real store of true wealth.

Tommy P (09/03/02; 12:59:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 84224)
$$$$322.2$$$$
Movin on up!
===
Hail Sir Tommy P
To be "eligible" your Price Guess MUST be accompied by a statement of "Why gold is important to YOU as an investor/owner."
===
<;-)

Well of course that's the whole reason I never go to bars. But wait till you find out where they get your shoe leather from. It comes off of cows! Did you know that? They take the skin right off of real cows, do a lot of stuff to it and then sew it together to make shoes. Talk about cheap! And the worst part of it is that they charge you more for the so-called 'genuine cowhide' than they do for the other stuff which they use sometimes instead. Talk about your conspiracies. This is the strangest one I ever heard of. What's important to realize is, it really is true.

(But I do have to admit. The silver story did surprise me.)

I like gold because it is beautiful and real. And because once I own it, no human being -or entity- in the whole world can make it stop being beautiful and real.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Angels for Hire

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magnetic sterling silverHello G-Khan,

I invite you to try again.
This time suspend the card of chains (usually in a wide shallow box) by holding the display as near to vertcal as you can. Use the magnet on the bodies of the chain and watch for movement. The problem "sterling" is weakly magnetic. If the chains are lying flat, the magnetic attraction may not be apparent. Many or few of these chains will react to the magnet you will certainly find some variation, but "success" would seem to vary, dependent on the volume of goods sold and how often the stock is replenished. Major Department stores have much volume of sales so you should see some greater percentage of magnetism in the product line of these stores. (Note too that the magnet will not attract silver plated items over brass.) I think the magnetic chain bodies are made from nickel, which is weakly magnetic.

Do NOT test the clasps. It has a small bit of spring steel in the moving part. Test everything in chains - and please note whether or not all the magnetic chains are from a certain Mediteranean country.

And thirdly, do not be so quick to dismiss others words - and if you do so, try to be a little more polite. Problems have been found by numerous individuals now with these chains. I too have handled sterling jewelry for years and I generally KNOW problem pieces when I see them. I did not check one (however) that I bought new last January. (I relied upon a past reputation for scrupulousness in their sterling product.)It was magnetic and some rough handling over the summer revealed plated product. The metal underneath is quite hard and resists cutting with a knife blade rather well.It was clearly stamped in two places '925, and the display case advertised it as 'sterling silver'. That got me checking aggressively every outlet that I have come upon since- including a flea market. I HAVE FOUND PROBLEMS IN EVERY PLACE OF BUSINESS THAT I HAVE CHECKED bar NONE.

There is NO doubt in my mind that this is a pervasive problem that will reflect poorly on the whole jewelry industry for many years. I have never, nor have I heard of "problem" sterling wares being so universally stocked in so many stores ever before. I have personally checked several retail outlets this past week, after revealing this publically, as has my brother. We have always found considerable problems in these retail outlets with their chain lines (of a certain type - usually their heavy chain lines). Also, my experience with old (collectible) sterling would certainly have revealed something, if this had been a serious problem in the past. It has not. Oh, yes, there has always been a little bit of this going on, but never on this scale before. This is very, very big.

'Nough said.

Regards,

G.

P.S. I have reported the situation to the Canada Competition Board (that handles precious purity standards metal fraud) and have also detailed the situation to a national T.V. broadcasting network. I would not do this unless I was very sure there was a problem.

The story on Wall Street is ugly and it is getting worse. I finally got the "Daily Gold Market Report" up as more news was coming across the wire. There are already "pre-announcement" warnings coming out and a report that personal bankruptcies have hit a new record. It should be quite "entertaining" tonight when the Asian markets open. Of interest is the massive outflows in mutual funds and this last month and this month appear to be on track to make new records as far as outflows are concerned. That means the equities markets could be under severe pressure.

- Black Blade

G Khan - Good to see you here. I have also noticed your work. Sleep? I'll have to give that a try sometime. Hmmm... Cheers!

My portfolio is 45% gold. And the truth will sent you free! cheers!

I tried both the Afternoon Gold Report and the Daily Market Report but both still bring up the August 26, 2002 report that reports POG slightly over $330/ounce.
Thanks for the report and all your other info but can the links be updated or, if there is a secret door to today's report, may I borrow the key?
Thanks
Rich

Gold is important to me because I regard it as the ultimate store of value. I love quotes, especially ones related to gold, so here's a few choice ones!

"We have not seen old worthless gold bars for sale, but worthless stock certificates are easy to find..." Anon

"Although gold and silver are not by nature money, money is by nature gold and silver." George Bernard Shaw

"The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it." Thomas Bailey Aldrich

"When gold argues the case, eloquence is impotent." Publius Syrus first century BC

"Gold and silver. They are the legal tender of Commerce
and the Constitution....the legal tender of God Almighty, who has made it precious." Samuel Cox, 1870

"Like liberty, gold never stays where it is undervalued." J. S. Morrill 1878

Found these and many more good ones, though not all directly gold related, at: http://www.srsr.org/toppage12.htm

http://cartalk.cars.com/About/Rant/r-rlast2.htmlWell, here it is. And this piece was written 6 years ago, so obviously its lack of widespread knowledge is evidence of the conspiracy itself. (BTW, my tin-foil brothers -- I'm keeping my membership up-to-date! You never know when one of these is going to pay off -- BIG TIME!)

"ANOTHER Microsoft Conspiracy"

By Tom Magliozzi (one of "The Car Talk Guys")

"There exists in American culture today, a polarization of values far more serious than political preference, race, or religion. A cultural difference which could one day destroy the very fiber of the values on which this great country is founded. An issue which brings out feelings and emotions profound enough to cause a crack in the cosmic egg of life as we know it....

"The real question is this: "Given the small differences between them, why do 90 percent of computer users have PC's?"

"I'll tell you why. Because we've all become addicts! Tens of millions of unsuspecting computer users were given--free of charge--an innocuous little game when we bought or otherwise acquired Windows. You turn on your PC and there it is. SOLITAIRE! You try it. It's fun, so you try it again. Pretty soon, you forget to eat lunch. Then you forget to take a haircut. Then you forget to go home. When you finally do remember to go home, you can't, because you missed the train (and your pants are all wet)....

"I don't play solitaire with real playing cards. I don't play it on my wife's dreaded Mac. Why on Microsoft? Because on Microsoft Solitaire I WIN! It has become clear to me that the odds of winning this game are far better than they ought to be. Have any of you noticed that the odds of winning virtual solitaire are NOT the same as real world solitaire?

"THE GAME IS FIXED! IT'S RIGGED!

"And WHO is responsible for this plot, this cabal, this conspiracy? Microsoft, that's who! Now why would Bill Gates, that little devil, have taken this simple little game and fixed it so we win? Bill ain't no dummy. He doesn't do anything without giving it a lot of thought. And, as we all know, he likes money. So the only reasonable conclusion is that Bill is getting us hooked; and should we EVER consider a switch to the MacIntosh camp, WHAMMO. He shuts us off. We start losing. We get depressed. We need our fix, so we seek out a windows machine and we're OK for another day.

"Bill Gates is a drug dealer! Plain and simple.

"Now repeat after me: "My name is Tom Magliozzi, and I'm a solitaire addict. HELP ME! HELP ME!"


G: If anyone wants to know how to remove Games via the Windows Control Panel utility, just ask. I'm an expert -- I do it at least once or twice a day... ;)

$$$320$$$In some parts of the world jade may rival gold as a valued personal possession. In China, for instance, in the days of eld, a war was fought over a particularly fine piece of jade.

You see jade has a peculiar attraction for QI (pronounced "chee" as in cheese): that intangible, but very real, element which is essential to nearly every Chinese art.

It may be argued that there is no more important art (or science) that that of preservation of health. An ailment is often reflected, and perhaps at times caused, by the qi associated with it. Certain (not all) jade will attract this qi. So a piece of jade may have beneficent qi, or maleficent qi, or qi of a neutral nature (to human health).

Some (perhaps most) of you will feel what follows incredible and not a suitable subject for this site. But it is ONLY introduced because of its connection to gold, and that the knowledge of what I am about to write could do much good.

Beautiful jade is warn many ways: as ear pendants, as bracelets, but perhaps most often on a necklace. To wear jade, there must be some way of attachment to the body. It can be contained within a clasp; or a hole can be bored through it, and a line or chain passed through the hole, or a ring attached by means of the hole, through which ring a line or chain passes. The important cosideration is what type of material is in direct contact with the jade. Unfortunately most materials will disturb beneficent qi, and some will even give the jade an unpleasant painful feeling.

The most common materials in jade jewelry which contact the stone are gold, platinum, and silver. Platinum, which in China is called White Gold, is quite popular nowdays. However platinum has actually a quite negative influence on jade. Silver is not nearly as bad as platinum.

BUT PURE GOLD HAS NO NEGATIVE INFLUENCE. Unfortunately pure gold is soft, and so one rarely finds it without alloy in jewelry--and the alloy can (and often does) cause trouble with respect to jade. The simplest solution in wearing a piece of jade (if it has a hole through it) is to wear it with a piece of silk. However, if it can be managed properly, the best metallic solution to the problem is with gold.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlBlack Blade - thanks for the DMR...please note that the date needs updating to Sept. 3 (all the days roll into one when one doesn't need to sleep...yes?) Thanks!

Rich - go to your tool bar at the top of your screen, go to Tools, go to Internet Options, go to Temporary Internet Files and hit Delete Files, and below to History and hit Delete History...that should clear memory to get the updated report. Cheers,

Waverider

G-khan, I don't understand the attack on Galearis' report of the possibility that plated silver is being sold as sterling. Knowing your affinity to silver as I do I can only suppose that you have mistakenly viewed Galearis as someone spreading negative or discouraging information about silver in order to discourage silver investment. I can assure you this is not the case.

There are very few people more involved or enthusiastic about reporting the continuing silver deficit and dwindling existing supply than BOTH of you. Perhaps only Butler and Morgan.

If bogus jewelry is being offered, reporting such (to hopefully stop this deception) is certainly not anti-silver propoganda. Buying silver and then discovering that you have been cheated will discourage further investment. Let's get this resolved and then ask "Why was the sterling plated? Isn't there enough silver to produce 925 sterling?"

Perhaps a campaign focusing in on the buying of one form of silver- perhaps silver eagles- would more quickly precipitate the market's awakening to the oh-so-low remaining world stash yet available.

Please give my regards to your Gold-Eagle compadres. I've been especially dazzled by the accuracy of your technical analysis outlooks. Better than many whose opinion I sometimes pay for!
Silver is king!
Rich

Guess should have been $$$320.0$$$.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/09/03/rtr711188.htmlWhat knowledgeable and responsible financial reporter could in good conscience call a mere derivative "safe" in these times??

Just ask Bunker, Herbert, Lamar, and some Saudi investment "colleagues" whether or not investments in Comex instruments were safely as good as the real thing (silver in their case -- c. 1980).

Only time will tell how these counterparty contracts will measure up to reality in times of *true stress* -- those being the very same times against which gold is acquired and held to begin with.

R.
------------------

HEADLINE: Safe COMEX gold ends firm as U.S. markets clobbered

NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - COMEX gold rose on Tuesday as investors ransacked the stock market upon returning from a three-day weekend, while a tumbling dollar made precious metals look cheaper for overseas investors looking for safe havens.

...The greenback dropped to a one-month low against the euro at $0.9973, raising the bullion purchasing power of European investors and fabricators. It fell to its cheapest in almost three weeks against the yen.

...Washington's stance on "regime change" in Iraq has also buoyed the yellow metal, which is 13 percent higher than at the start of the year, making it one of the best performing assets.

It's working now. Thanks!

Waverider - Thanks, yes the dates sometimes blow by fast so that it can be a blur. I was in a bit of a rush as I was scouting out some hunting areas for elk this morning. I will go back this afternoon for a couple of hours. I have finished a review of "The Prize" by Daniel Yergin, and now I am reading "Green Monday". "Green Monday" is a novel that is a thinly disguised history of events out of the late 1970's with a few good twists. Only the names have been changed (grin). Cheers!

Rich - I don't know what to say. I clear my drive daily though. When I fire up the computer I go to "my computer" on my desk top, then click on "C drive", go to properties and clear files. It also lets the machine run a bit quicker. But I use windows 2000. As they say - "results may vary". Cheers!

Off to the gym and then to slay an elk (maybe?).

Because I just love this stuff!

Just a quick note. I saw some very impressive jade carvings, tea sets and china sets in the national museum in Myanmar. I brought several gem stones in Myanmar during my work there (rubies, saphires, zircons, etc.). Yet I never bought any "imperial jade" which was more expensive than the gems stone. It is a very nice light green cut transluscent stone, yet it is well out of my price range. I do wish that I had some for my "collection". It is most valued among jewelers in Myanmar. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gotta run!

That was at the national museum in Yangon, Myanmar. The "imperial jade" is more costly than the other gemstones.

- Black Blade

Thanks for your words, as usual, which shine a light on misunderstandings. It's easy sometimes in the darkness it's easy to mistake a friend returning from patrol for a foe trying to infiltrate our lines. Especially when we're already so outnumbered.

"Friendly" fire is one of the great sub-tragedies of war. (And if you don't think this is, just wait till we see the other side's playbook someday...)

And when you rush to post, as under "friendly" domestic pressure, why, you could say just about any durned ol' thing!

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/03/rtr711376.htmlSnip:
The country's currency, the real , slid 1.2 percent to 3.10 per dollar, leaving it nearly 3 percent lower than where it started the week and more than a quarter weaker than where it began 2002. On Monday the real dipped 1.7 percent to 3.062 to the dollar.
********
Misetich
The US economic malaise is contagious - worldwide - Brazil's stock market tumbled down badly following WS - Lets stay on this TRAIL - will Brazil default?

Got gold?

Blair Warns Iraq It Could Face 'Regime Change'
Tue Sep 3,11:04 AM ET
By Dominic Evans

SEDGEFIELD, England (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair ( news - web sites) issued a stark warning to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ( news - web sites) on Tuesday -- comply with U.N. resolutions on weapons of mass destruction or face "regime change."


Blair told a news conference Iraq posed a real and unique threat to the Middle East and the world, and said the international community, not just the United States, had to deal with that threat.

Blair insisted no decisions had been taken by London or Washington on what kind of action should be taken against Baghdad, but added:

"Either the regime starts to function in a completely different way...or the regime has to change."

Blair said he would like the United Nations ( news - web sites) to be involved in dealing with Iraq, but hinted that the lack of a new U.N. resolution backing action should not mean the international community could stand by and let the problem persist.

"The important thing...is that the U.N. has to be the route to deal with this problem, not a way of people avoiding dealing with this problem," he told the news conference in his northeast England constituency of Sedgefield.

President Bush ( news - web sites) has made "regime change" in Baghdad a priority of his policy and his administration has used the past few weeks to set out its case for military action against Saddam, whom it suspects of developing weapons of mass destruction.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has said London's priority is to get weapons inspectors back into Iraq.

In a bid to deflect growing momentum in Washington for a military strike, Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz has said Baghdad is ready to cooperate with the United Nations to find a comprehensive solution to its crisis with the U.S.

But Blair said there would be no negotiations.

"Weapons inspectors should go back in -- unconditionally, any time, any place, anywhere, under a weapons inspection regime that really makes a difference," he said. "If the Iraqis refuse that, then we have to find a different way of dealing with it."

Speaking after talks with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan ( news - web sites) at the Earth Summit in Johannesburg, Aziz cited previous invitations to U.S. and British politicians to visit Iraq to check for banned arms.

Blair gave no direct response to the Aziz's offer but hammered home his point that the world could not stand by and allow Saddam to continue breaching U.N. resolutions.

"This is an appalling, brutal, dictatorial, vicious regime...the people that would be most delighted if Saddam Hussein went would be the Iraqi people," he said.

"Iraq poses a real and unique threat to the security of the region and the rest of the world, Saddam Hussein is continuing his efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction....(and) he is in breach of UN resolutions. And confronted with this reality, we have to face up to it and deal with it."

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020903-tue.html#anchor0Snip:

Finally, it's important to take note of the increasingly shaky state of a US-centric global economy. No matter how you cut it, the world is sputtering again. That's certainly the case in Europe, with weakness in Germany leading the way.
........
Meanwhile, the Asian outlook is fraying around the edges. That's especially the case in Japan, where a renewed weakening of production underscores the downside risks evident in recently revised GDP statistics
.......
A year later, we all long for healing. But the bottom line is that post-shock resilience came at a real cost. That bill has yet to be paid.
**********
Misetich
The excesses of the 90's - That bill has yet to be paid also

Got gold?

$$$$$$319.7$$$$$$$Gold will not move above $320.00 unless there is an miltary conflict in the M.E. This line in the sand will be held so those who wish to acquire gold can do so at a bargain price.
The miltary buildup by the US is not fully covered by the news media. The Arab states have refused use of their bases for the war (Suez Canal/Saudi Arabia) so the time frame for the attack has been pushed back till they find a viable plan. The ammunition makers are at full bore. Posible two or more fronts if war breaks out. The US will go it alone. Until then gold IMHO will stay below $320.00 But when the shooting starts, LOOK OUT.
Slingshot----------------<>

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/03/opinion/03KRUG.html?ex=1032054127&ei=1&en=ecfd2ea6c4218055Snip:
By PAUL KRUGMAN
You see, Mr. Greenspan is the only economic policy maker we have. Fiscal policy is effectively off the table, partly because of long-run deficits worsened by Mr. Greenspan's own bad advice. Funny how he wasn't sure that Nasdaq 5,000 was a bubble, but believed that 10-year surplus projections were reliable enough to justify a huge tax cut. In any case, serious fiscal action is ruled out by the Bush administration's relentless opportunism; every proposal for short-run economic stimulus turns into an attempt to lock in permanent tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. So if the recovery continues to lose momentum, it's up to the Fed to take matters in hand.
*********
Misetich

Greenspan's going out in the sunset - Japanese style

Got gold?

OOPSPlease make this addition to my last post.

In todays world, gold will soon be the only insurance readily acceptable for all transactions, foreign and domestic. That is why it is important to own gold.
$$$$$319.7$$$$$$
Too many hours at The Mill.
Thanks.
Slingshot-------------<>

per contest rules: gold is important to me as an investor/owner simply because I sincerely believe that it is the best place to be invested in to make the most profit over the course of the next 21 months. good luck to all!

According to Kitco which lists Palladium at $306 and according to Bulliondesk which lists the ask of palladium at $311. Now POG can concentrate entirely on overcoming Platinum. At that point the only precious metal priced higher in dollar terms will be..... Naw, couldn't happen, could it?
Rich

I am purposely recording my guess early precisely because it puts me at a contest disadvantage. Whether this early guess is truly a disadvantage is irrelevant to my purpose. The fact that I perceive it to be is all that matters.

I'm doing this because the ideological statement required by the contest is far more important than winning the price guess. At this site, I hope and assume that most contributors here share this belief with me. If you don't then your belief in gold is simply as an investment and you would be likewise invested in paper if you perceived that to be a better return. Now, I wouldn't be honest if I didn't say that I would like to get rich upon gold's return to its former glory. But if it doesn't, I will still own it and accumulate it as much as possible. I will still own gold because for me it is putting my money where my mouth is.

IMHO, accumulating gold is the most patriotic thing one can do short of picking up arms and promoting revolution. I used to think that our constitution would see us through all challenges, but now I know the falsity of that utopian ideal. The time for talk and political solutions is over. An economic disaster or worse is our last hope - and I don't say that lightly. If I had faith that there were enough US citizens to carry the torch of freedom and who understood the responsibilities required to keep it, I would vote republican and own equities. Sadly however, I'm certain that our population has completely lost touch with our history and our critical democratic responsibilities. Nearly three quarters of the earth's population lives in poverty and under tyranny but we seldom ask ourselves how we were able to overcome that viscous cycle? What were the ideas that helped us do it and what were the costs in human terms? How many of us today would be willing to give up our wealth and physical safety to ensure that that great quantum leap for humanity is not lost. Indeed, how many would even know what I'm talking about.

If you own gold, you are putting support behind the idea that government intrinsically should be limited. Through incessant propaganda, rationalizations, political demagoguery and liberal self-interest and self-righteousness - ignorance and governmental dependency have supplanted the idea of personal responsibility. For me, the socialization of our money was just icing on the cake. I can never express it very well so I usually resort to the following quote by Edmund Burke who understood democracy more than most and, in 1791 wrote as follows: (read this carefully)

"Men are qualified for civil liberties in exact proportion to their disposition to put
moral chains upon their own appetites, in proportion as their soundness and sobriety of
understanding is above their vanity and presumption, and in proportion as they are more
disposed to listen to the counsels of the wise and good, in preference to the flattery of
knaves. Society cannot exist unless a controlling power upon will and appetite be placed
somewhere; and the less of it there is within, the more there must be without. It is ordained
in the eternal constitution of things that men of intemperate minds cannot be free.
Their passions forge their fetters."

Gold is important to me because when I listen to the counsels of the wise and good, gold shines through. It promotes freedom because it limits the power of government, it insures domestic tranquility by simplifying our economic transactions and wealth building endeavors. It makes truth transparent and forces our attention on larger questions - like "does life have a purpose".

There are only two reasons to own gold. To show support for the written precepts laid down at great risk by our founding fathers and as a survival tool so that the concepts of freedom can survive with us.

Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 84257)
====
Perhaps we should consider giving PRIZES for the "BEST" reasons that individuals own their GOLD !
<;-)

As we speak, the japanese are tanking to the tune of -500 points. Come in Sir Black Blade. Where are you ? I need for you to address this issue. Something surely has to be going on!!

UPDATE (as of 18:30 Denver time 9/3/02)

$$$$ 342.5 $$$$ gvc (09/03/02; 17:08:12MT - msg#: 84255)

$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ luckypierre (09/03/02; 15:20:51MT - msg#: 84244)

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ a nation of one (09/03/02; 13:55:53MT - msg#: 84229)

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Tommy P (09/03/02; 14:33:23MT - msg#: 84233)

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (09/03/02; 12:29:20MT - msg#: 84221)

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (09/03/02; 13:18:00MT - msg#: 84226)

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (09/03/02; 15:06:26MT - msg#: 84240)

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - msg#: 84257)
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ slingshot (09/03/02; 16:57:17MT - msg#: 84254)

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ davefinger (09/03/02; 14:52:14MT - msg#: 84235)

$$$$ 318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)
====

THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
===
Thanks all for jumping in so early !
(and nice recoveries there Sir Tommy P and Sir Slingshot.)
<;-)

I own gold because it helps me to get out of the system (fractional reserve). They are not going to charge usury by using my cash!!!! One by one we can make a difference.

Every noble plea contains a secret cause.

Or not so secret. Example: the want for a more perfect order of affairs; a better human condition.

Yes, Arundal. It seems so. But look for the cause that is secret.

$$$$314.50$$$$

After spending 3 years of reading this fantastic forum every day, I have learned that Gold is the only real money that will survive the coming paper storm that is surely on its way. Timing is the hard part, as the Fed will do everything it can to stop it...it must stop it or....

Correction: And�ril. I apologize.

The Jackson Hole SpeechI have pointed out many times here that AG, alias "The MoTU "[Master of the Universe], is critically interested in face saving. It subsumes his life. Fed meeting are orchestrated love-ins to his highness - The MoTU, according to insiders. Alternative viewpoints are quickly discarded. The two-week notice departure of Lawrence Meyer from the FOMC last year was another example of internal strife at the highest levels of the Fed.

That Greenspan would so quickly begin a formalized defense of his "Legacy" suggests that he already knows what's coming real soon and that it is BAD. Does he know the end of the gold manipulation is at hand? There is no way to know right now, but it's pretty tough to keep gold down when the Middle East is UP [In arms in a war]. The DOW will fall and the economy will fall.

The election will take its toll on incumbents as there is a strong correlation between poor economies and mid-term incumbent party failures.

Greenspan may feel that he is headed for a scapegoat status, left "Twisting in the wind". He may not be able to deal with this thus he is now doing what he can to provide what Krugman suggests are "Excuses".

More "Dots" to fill in the picture.

It cannot be the case that the administration has secret information about Iraq -of a nature that would require aggression against that nation, and also of a kind that would need to be secret- because if that were the case, it would be inadvisable to try and justify such war by means of vague, and incorrect, excuses and misguided psychological explanations. It is good to be able to recognize that if such secret information were possessed by the administration, it would be different from anything that has been stated openly, and that nothing else would need to be stated openly, except that there is such secret information. Instead, what we have seen is that a great deal of tentative posturing is being openly engaged in, ostensibly to find out the attitude of the American public, but in reality to alter it, with regard to such an aggression, in order to prepare for what is wanted to be carried out. If information of a truly compelling nature were in the administration's hands, it would not need to be secret. Therefore, on the information that I have, I do agree that a 'regime change' is recommendable, tough not in Iraq, but in the United States, and not by means of violence, but by that means which every Citizen by law possesses, namely, by voting for one when the opportunity comes. It isn't only Isreal that the American taxpayer has no lasting interest in supporting, but it is on the Americans themselves that their own energies and monies need rightfully to be spent, nor on unnecessary wars in any place, but on healthy pursuits, not on juvenile ones like bullying the weaker nations of the world, but on improving the quality and situation of our own people, not through an eagerness for war, but by cultivation of things known to produce beneficial results. Without possessing any so-called 'secret' information relating to the impending belligerency against Iraq (for belligerency is what an unprovoked attack would be), one conclusion necessarily to be reached by any adult citizen is that attacking Iraq would probably be an irresponsible act, regardless of whether Iraq is potentially a direct enemy of ours, and that our government's present administration's attempts at bypassing, subverting, ignoring, corrupting, and rendering useless the laws of our nation to serve its own purposes has no intention more than to intimidate our own people into taking no action to prevent the partial destruction of our country, and our liberties and freedoms, so that an immature president can think that he is completing the actions which his father left unfinished. What happened to our beliefs? The ones on which our nation was founded? Why have we allowed men ambitious to become our tyrants deal with us in the manner to which they are so obviously committed? Do the phrases, "As for me, give me liberty or give me death," and, "I only regret that I have but one life to give for my country," mean nothing? Have we come to this? That we put our children's lives, our own property, and everything that our ancestors fought for, on the line, to be sacrified in the worship of doing nothing, lest we be accused of not being patriots? To avoid the real and lasting pleasures of accepting responsibility for ourselves and for our own action, do we walk so glibly into the hellish fires of war and loss of freedom? Such weakness deserves to be destroyed. And it will be, one way or another. But I do not believe for a moment that it is the case that we are a nation of imbeciles and care-nots. As for gold, what can its value be in such a world, but treasure held between our person and those who would do us harm? Silence in such straights is not wisdom but cowardice. As a price of safety, the surrender of liberty is surrender nonetheless. It is a self-destructive giving-up of those very aspects which make our lives better than those without liberty. Far better a dangerous life lived on the basis of one's own beliefs and respectable laws, than one supresssed by powerful but wrong-minded regimes.

[I alone bear responsibility for the content of this post.]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020903/ts_nm/attack_finances_gold_dc(Reuters) - The Al Qaeda network and Afghanistan's deposed Taliban militia have sent several shipment of gold to Sudan in recent week, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing European, Pakistani and U.S. investigators. The newspaper quoted sources as saying that several shipments of gold were taken by boat from the Pakistani port of Karachi to either Iran or the United Arab Emirates and flown by chartered airplanes to Khartoum, the Sudanese capital.
===
my apologies if this has been posted before

What the Administration has said is......insufficient to mount an invasion of a sovereign nation. The president on the other hand may have information that he cannot reveal. For example he may know of the certain placement of a WMD in New York City to be detonated on September 11, 2003.

Could he announce such a thing? Of course he could not. With all the previous warnings that have not resulted in no attacks he would appear as the boy who cried wolf. If he did launch a formal announcement to try and save lives in front of a known threat, the enemy might simply postpone the detonation after chaos reigned for a while. How does one evacuate Manhattan? How does one openly admit that the US can't exactly locate the nuke?

The stated reason for an invasion is not the real reason. There are alternative responses.

Nuclear, biological or chemical missile deilvered deterrence is quite sufficient for the task of "Homeland Defense" against any terrorist move. Simply list the retaliation target cities [Now] and the number of missiles to deliver whatever is delivered to the US. However, the Administration has abandoned 50 years of successful deterrence policy because they want the oil to help mitigate a woeful economy and a weakened Saudi oil partner. It's one or the other...an invasion OR missle retaliation and since we need the oil, we get Door Number One.

One thing is clear, the failure to achieve an internal Republican Party consensus on the Iraqi war will doom it to Viet Nam status as Republican defectors will join with opponents to form a huge wall of protest as the inevitable killing mounts and the region explodes. Imagine house-to-house fighting in Baghdad... Mogadishu-style. Black Hawk Down times 1000. Imagine Syria and Iran joining in.

The US military staff are against this. You can take to the bank that they will foot-drag and try to guarantee the minimum of US casualties. Recall that SECSTATE Powell vowed after Viet Nam never to participate in a war with "limited objectives" and daily Washington operations directives.

Perhaps that is why he is rumored to be leaving the Administration in January 2003.

I really hope there is no WMD attack or any other kind in the near future. I cannot see how the President can hope to prevail and hold the nation's support if all there is to all this is a theft of Saddam's oil. He will be either a martyr or a hero in Islamic eyes.

For the US, this is the definition of a lose-lose situation.

$$$327.90$$$ Gold will try hard to break out but I feel the pressure from the cabal will be Whore-endus.I think 333.00 my mid to late September.
To all: I really don't know what to think about this Iraq war. Something is up that I can't see. Everone says we want the oil and yes we do want oil, and at market prices. But we have all we want and there is no reason I can "SEE" why that would change. ME oil is becoming less important as many other sources are pumping lots of it. No one has said we won't sell any more and they all want mid $20.00 pricing which is about right for all. The only reason I see to invade is if we are going to capture the oil which means we move in and live in the desert until it is all used up...a long time. Help me. You all need to explain this thing to me I seem to be lost in space, or there is a hole in my tin hat and they got me. Oh well live small.
RJ

Gold is important to me because in the last 18 months trying to figure out gold has lead me on an unbelivable oddisy. One where i learned what an sdr is and that for some reason they have been disapearing. gol dis important to me because it represents a store house of value, a safe place where no one has a claim on it and i have to pay no taxes whatsoever on it while i lay claim to it. Ive learned that everything is related to gold in the financial world even though tptb dont want to say it. Gold is important to me because i cant figure it out and get to the truth because of the obfuscation by the central banks which makes the gold i have even that more valuable to me. Gold is important to me because it led me here and even if it was for a short time i had refuge in the castle.. my lil corner and my seat where i could overhear the noble knights and fair ladys discussing deep financial matters and how to prepare for them.

You state the common plea, that it is for the purpose of their own protection that men must be lied to. If there is a bomb in Manhattan, the best thing to do is to tell the people of it. Let them decide for themselves what to do. Better that than to deprive them of their right to life and then say it is for their own sake.

Manhattan is evacuated once every day.

Then why state a reason?

I am glad you agree with me.

Thanks Bound Spirit for 84257. Ultimately there is no system that can guarantee civil liberty. It comes down to the morality of the people. In a world full of self-righteous socialist nonsense I'm opting out with gold in hand.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

God bless the American consumer. For without them, the U.S. economy and other economies around the world would be in deep trouble. The willingness of the American consumer to go deeper into debt to maintain personal consumption has surprised even the most optimistic economists on Wall Street. With mortgage rates at record lows, and the advent of no-points mortgages, the consumer has been able to tap a deep well of money made available by Greenspan's latest bubble: the mortgage and housing market. With the banking system flooded with fresh money and GSE's able to tap the securities markets as money roles into bond funds, the supply of new credit is becoming endless. With interest-only loans, second mortgages at 125% of the value of home, and adjustable-rate mortgages, the ability to extract equity out of a home has created a Fed-induced consumer money machine.

Not to be left out on the refinancing spree led by consumers, corporate debt (which has doubled over the last five years to $3.9 Trillion) is leading to credit stress never imagined before. According to Moody's Investor Services, the nation is in the worst credit stress since the Great Depression. The credit agency cited that $46 billion in loans were in default during the second quarter alone. For the first half of the year, loan defaults were $76.6 billion. Over the last five years, non-financial companies added $446 billion in new debt. These credit stresses could impact the credit derivatives market credit swaps and could potentially unwind and implode.


Black Blade: Tonight the situation has deteriorated even further. It now appears that the markets are in deep trouble and Wall Street has just taken notice. Yes, Abby Jo of Goldman Sachs has not emerged to see if she can see her shadow, and Diane Swonk of Bank One is now singing the blues over a crashing economy instead of touting the unbelievable story of a hunky dory economy with nothing but blue skies as far as the eye can see. I have listened to these (and many other) idiots with utter amazement and had wondered what rock they had been hiding under for the last two years. The signs were and still are so obvious that even three blind men can describe this elephant without even touching it. Meanwhile tonight I have heard yet more of these Wall Street pimps trying to "put lipstick on this pig". I won't go into detail here as I have already attacked this issue in today's "Daily Gold Market Report". It appears that the Gold price guessing contest comes at an "interesting" time as these equities markets and the global economy come under severe stress. It's getting ugly and we have a long way to go before we are through. Grab your seats and hang on for a very rough ride. Oh yeah � that "Bone Pile" is going to grow at a fast and furious pace from here. Layoff announcements have rocketed higher by 46%. Jeez, there is so much negative news to cover! New accenting standards adopted by many companies guarantee lower earnings as no one wants to take any chances � so many companies will start to tell the truth and that will result is a lot of disappointment. As they say � "and the blind shall see". My take? The old Chinese curse about "Interesting Times".

$$$325.5$$$
My frustration with market events of the last year and some financial losses in that arena led me to the one investment that will never lose true value, gold. It is insurance and an inheritance for my sons. I have a profound sense of security as this gale will turn into a long and nasty storm. I greatly appreciate even being allowed in this circle of strategic thinkers. Thanks again. Got Gold and getting more every day.

...after doing my homework for the past few years, I realize this is the last, best hope for any possibility of taking my kids thru the next several years...whether I'm here or not!

p.s. if TSHTF between now and next Friday, I unofficially double my guess.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l

Snippit From Reuters: Tokyo's Nikkei average fell to a 19-year low on Wednesday morning, as megabanks such as Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. led a broad-based decline after global stock markets plunged on Tuesday. Shares in Japan's megabanks took a battering. Japan's banks have massive shareholdings on their books and falls in stocks threaten to eat into their capital base.

Black Blade: I didn't want to say anything yet as it is only a rumor. However as many are now alluding to it, the rumor is that Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. has already failed and is only supported by the government and outside interests with huge infusions of cash via the BOJ. This has apparently been kept under wraps (if true) to prevent a run on the bank as well as on other insolvent Japanese banks. That said, the Nikkei is also under pressure as a result of "Monkey See � Monkey Do" in light of the carnage on Wall Street. The global economic collapse will hurt Japan more than most as in effect Japan is nothing more than a large factory on two islands. They import raw materials, assemble trinkets, and export finished goods for export. The problem now is that Americans and Europeans are finally cutting back on spending as revealed by lackluster retail sales. Add to that the threat of a major west coast longshoreman's strike with Japanese goods piling up on the docks. It is a very ugly work in progress right now. The Japanese are scared to death as they should be. The "currency war" went very badly as they only squandered $billions worth of yen in a fruitless effort to weaken the yen against the US dollar. They just did not realize how bad the US economy really is, but then even US investors and Wall Street missed it too.

...I'm just much more cynical about people who hold......or THINK they hold...absolute power.

They mislead because they lack courage to break free from their masters.

The Administration obfuscates because we let them. Like the Russians who "Pretended to work while the politburo pretended to pay".

Black Blade is correct that we will have a very "interesting" week. NKK225 already down 130...testing 9000.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are in full retreat again tonight. It appears that the carnage has carried right on through the trading sessions in the US and Europe into trading in Asia. In light of events in Japan and the revelations of problems coming to light in the banking sector, I would not be surprised to see precious metals buying take off in coming days as Japanese investors seek safety. Who could blame them? They more than anyone have seen rising unemployment and changes in business practices deemed inconcievable just a few years ago. It was once thought that a job in a good solid Japanese corporation was a job for life and a distinctive honor. How times have changed as unemployment is rising and the economic depression of the last several years threatens to get much worse. I still remember the descriptions of the elderly Japanese woman srounging through the remains of her home in Kobe after the big earthquake and finding her life savings in a box. The currency and papers were burned up and destroyed but her gold bullion was intact. I suspect that many Japanese will be headed toward the bullion shops in coming days in a repeat of the latest "New Japanese Gold Rush".

- Black Blade

And their masters do not make it easy for them to break away. They make it as difficult as possible.

Yes I think so. I am very much looking forward to September and October.

I read the post that phoney Sterling Silver was being sold at Wal-Mart! I went out and tested about 20 of the Sterling Silver chains at Wal-Mart as soon as I read it. This was at the St. Cloud MN store. I can say that all 20 or so chains seemed real and were not attracted to the magnet, with the exception of a few of the fasteners on the chains. I posted my results here as this is where I first read it.

Since that post and the one on my home web site I have recieved a number of emails from others that say they have tested some and they were attracted to the magnets and one of the emails also said one of his Gold chains also was attracted. So for the record I believe this is happening and I just went to a store with the real thing. I am more bullish Silver than anyone I know.

Supply/Demand is screaming BUY ME on Silver..

U.S. Government had 6 billion ounces before WWII and now has none. Price of Silver will break the old record of 52.50

Do your own research, I suggest to all to get a magnet and check around when you are out shopping.

Paper is on fire, where you going to go? Silver and Gold!

Peace to all on this wonderfull site - I am sorry as it seems I jumped the gun after checking just one store - I will check some more out..

What investment out there has the most upside potential with the lowest downside risk and is becoming more rare with each day that passes? Silver is my answer and that is why!

Silver is King

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020903/economy_2.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing barely grew for a second straight month in August while companies hiked the number of planned layoffs, reports said on Tuesday, stoking worries the weak economic recovery may stagnate more in coming months. "We've lost a lot of momentum," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM business survey committee, of the decline in new orders. Ore said that another month showing new orders close to the 50 level would indicate "real softness" in the second half of the year, but stressed that the August survey did not by itself suggest a coming contraction in manufacturing. Layoffs continued at factories, extending a trend seen since mid-2000 even as the employment index edged up to 45.8 in August from 45.0 in July. Manufacturers, some of the hardest hit by the recession and tepid recovery, have eliminated 1.8 million jobs in the past two years. According to the Challenger Gray, the current pace of job cuts throughout the economy is on track to make 2002 the second highest year for layoff announcements in the 13 years since it began tracking employment data. Only last year's job cuts would be greater. "As companies wait for this elusive rebound, they will continue to eliminate jobs to preserve whatever profits they have been able to achieve," said John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger Gray.


Black Blade: What an ugly picture this is. I have been hammering away at this scenario since March 2000. Actually, I had expected the negative scenario since the latter half of 1999 when I said that Dubya could be our generations "Herbert Hoover". That may yet happen. I suspect that we will be in a military conflict by the next presidential election to nail down a second term if the economy is toast. Anyway, I think that the "New Great Depression" is a lock. I and others seem to believe that we are in a secular bear market that could last several years. I expect that it will be up to Alan Greenspan and the Fed to cut interest rates again to keep the real estate bubble somewhat inflated. The problem is that AG and the boys are running out of ammo (like Gen. Armstrong Custer - surrounded and only 7 bullets left!). If the real estate bubble pops, then "Check Mate". Oh yeah, today we hear that personal bankruptcies have hit a new all time record high! "Interesting Times" indeed.

As always, get out of debt (at least as soon as possible), stash enough cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

I have been a "goldbug" for most of my adult life and now I have no stocks, only physical. I do not know how long the gold manipulation game can be played, but I believe the end is at hand. It is hard to imagine that I will ever have to part with any of my gold, but if times dictate, then it may be necessary to sell/trade some. It has always been my purpose to use physical gold as insurance but I primarily buy it to pass on to my children and they to theirs. Gold maples have found their way to neices and nephews for wedding presents. In my local paper, each time gold goes on a mini-run, there is always an article downplaying the importance of gold. That reinforces my will to acquire more. If so much effort is being orchestrated to depress the price of a commodity, imagine what the value will be when the market is allowed to fluctuate freely. THis is a no-brainer, gold get you some.

$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$
Gold doesn't need a ME war to jangle the already nervous public. All we need and what we have are: a contracting labor market, a falling stock market, falling earnings, a falling dollar and mutual fund redemption. That's why I believe in real money. Gold. Get you some.

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/1AD1768817A1447185256C280030BB7C?OpenDocumentFrom Sharefin's comment on Miningweb: "The physical has been

brought,

& sold many times over "

AND,

"I believe that there is 100% chance that the price of physical will disassociate itself from paper promises..."

No, I don't think it's FOA, but maybe I'm just hearing a whisper of a return (???)

Although a relative newcomer to the gold investment scene, I am quickly coming to realize the most important aspect (for me) of owning physical gold. I don't think of it just like any other type of investment. I don't track its daily or monthly movements, and think of buying/selling based on the price. Its purpose is to provide me with financial security and the peace of mind that goes along with it.

Has anyone heard any recent news about when the Shanghai exchange is planning to open? Or did I miss it, and is it already open? I will be in Shanghai in 2 weeks, and was hoping to swing by and see it in action.

Thanks, Woodie

http://www.mips1.net/mgjr.nsf/Current/85256ACE0035918D85256C2A00028165?OpenDocument

Snippit:

NEW YORK �� Randgold Resources [RRUS], which recently debuted on Nasdaq to complement a London Stock Exchange listing, has closed out 148,500 ounces of gold call options.

Black Blade: Another miner bails out of hedges.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are negative and Euro markets are staring off sluggishly in the positive. It still looks like it could get "entertaining" as the markets absorb "grim" data.

- Black Blade

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Euro markets start off negative but recovers from lows.

WASHINGTON, Sep 03, 2002 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Sudan's acting ambassador in Washington Tuesday strongly denied a report Tuesday that Osama bin Laden's supporters had recently shipped substantial quantities of gold to Sudan in a move to secure Khartoum as a financial center for his al Qaida network. "This story is nonsense," the Deputy Chief of Mission for Sudan in Washington, Abdulbagi Kabeir, told United Press International.

Black Blade: Interesting.

"Readers may not have paid particular attention to Jay Taylor's latest report on Gold Eagle Editorial
to quote from Mr Taylors letter dealing with gold.

"While I was in London I spoke to a very talented man who works with Frank Veneroso. He told me it was his speculative view that the Central Banks have already granted the bullion banks (named as defendants in Reggie Howe's lawsuit) the right to repay them not in gold but in paper money. This would then provide more time before "the fecal matter hits the rotary oscillator" in the gold markets.

Unfair as that would be to Americans and citizens of other countries that may have lent gold out, it would be consistent with the dishonest handling of our national gold treasury by our policy makers. I think the hunch of my English friend is most likely correct.
end of quote
Think about it. "

$$$$319.40$$$$

I have three reasons why I like gold.
1) It is honest money. No banker or politician can print more of it.
2) It is an inheritance for my children.
3) The other reason I like gold is because I get a �warm-fuzzy� feeling knowing that my meager stash will [hopefully] add to the suffering of the bullion banks when TSHTF. A pox upon the bullion banks!

Denis, stop wasting so much time reading this forum.

$$$$323.70$$$$

My family is to precious to me to take any chances that they would have to try and survive by scrounging in dumps, like what has befallen so many of the Argentinians, when our financial system implodes. I can do without a bigger fancier house, car, and other window dressing, and use my extra frn's to acquire the ultimate insurance, Gold (and some silver also).

IMO, I reckon that TPTB are so scared of the POG/POS and POO all heading towards a SHTF status, that the PPT are prepared for a massive final assault on the markets past the blinkered eyes of the CTFC so as to ensure that the POTUS's dream of the NWO will come to fruition, despite it being yet another SNAFU.

God I hate acronyms.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0508.htmlSnippit:

What Is Money?

Assuming some form of physical specie will still be useful in a nanotechnology-rich society, what form should it take? We recognize that money generally serves two well-known primary functions: A store of value, and a medium of transaction. As a result, we can postulate that in the ideal form:

1. Money should be an efficient store of value, having high value per unit volume or per unit mass.

2. Money should be available in small enough physical sizes to be readily portable, even in the largest denominations, by human users, thus facilitating exchange transactions and specie warehousing.

3. Money should be physically stable for a duration of time spanning at least the maximum intended period of transactions and/or the maximum value storage horizon.

4. Money should not be inherently physically dangerous to its owner (e.g. radioactive, poisonous, explosive, etc.).

But money must also be trustworthy, which has several additional implications:

5. Money should be difficult to counterfeit.

6. Money should be difficult or impossible to replicate at a cost less than its cost of manufacture even by the most efficient means possible. That is, production costs (aka "intrinsic value") should approximate face value; seigniorage should be minimal to nil.

7. Money should be immediately recognizable as the intended denomination of the intended specie. Once revealed, the intrinsic value of the specie should be difficult to disguise. If unrevealed, the specie should still be compact enough to hide (from thieves or tax authorities) on one's person or elsewhere; see (2) above.

8. Money should be self-validating by its own physical form, and not rely upon any legalistic governmental imprimatur, easily-altered surface stamping, or monopoly minting authority to partake of value (e.g., no "fiat" specie).

In a nanotechnology-intensive world, any form of physical currency whose value depends solely upon the physical arrangement of common atoms must likely fail one or more of the above criteria. For example, today's paper money and base-metal coins are easily counterfeited. A perfect replica hundred-dollar bill of mass ~1 gram can be manufactured by Drexler's ~1 kg desktop manufacturing appliance at the rate of one banknote per second, an output providing the operator with an income of $360,000 per hour. It may take 30 years to catch up to deci-trillionaire Bill Gates, but then again, the counterfeiter can always buy more manufacturing appliances. The desktop machine can also produce 5 carats/sec of already-cut investment-grade diamonds, reproducing the entire 1995 world demand for polished stone (19 million carats) in 44 days. Goodbye, DeBeers.

Gold

Coins made of gold, the rarest of the traditional precious metals in the Earth's crust, are a step in the right direction because gold atoms are inherently somewhat scarce. This scarcity may hold true even in a world of abundant nanotechnology. Consider: One of every 3 billion atoms in ordinary crustal rock is a gold atom, or 3.1 ppb (parts-per-billion) by weight. All natural gold atoms are of one isotope, Au197. A ~10 kg nanotech desktop refinery wholly dedicated to sorting gold atoms from crustal rock, perhaps employing ~1 kg of the input ordering and reagent preparation subsystems found in Drexler's original manufacturing appliance, could in theory sort ~1 microgram/sec, which is a net output of about 1 troy ounce of gold per year. To achieve this paltry output, the desktop refinery must process 16,000 tons/yr of rock (~100 cm3/sec) and the unit draws about 1 megawatt of continuous power. So you get about $300/yr worth of gold, but the energy costs you $900,000/yr at today's $0.10/Kw-hr electric rates. Cost breakeven occurs if the crustal rock can be preconcentrated in gold content, using bulk chemical processes, but this may be uneconomical and hardly seems worth the trouble.

Even diverting the entire present-day human energy consumption of ~10e13 watts, already approaching the hypsithermal limit for Earth, exclusively to nanotech gold extraction from crustal rock would produce only ~300 tons/yr of new gold. This won't seriously disrupt international gold prices, because world gold production already averages ~1500 tons/yr using 5,000-10,000 ppb ores, and because a total of ~100,000 tons of gold has been extracted throughout history, most of it still extant, worth ~$1 trillion at today's prices.

Perhaps you are thinking that it might make more sense to do a little environmental remediation while reworking the mining industry tailings, which are typically ~1,000 ppb gold, and extracting all of the remaining precious metal. Working on the richer tailings rather than raw crustal rock, our nanotech desktop refinery could produce ~300 troy ounces of pure gold per year, worth $100,000/yr at current market prices. Unfortunately, the energy cost is still $900,000/yr at today's $0.10/Kw-hr electric rates. If future energy rates are a lot cheaper than today's rates, well and good. But note that only ~100,000,000 tons of new mine tailings are piled up annually, with each year's leavings containing ~100 tons of unextracted gold. Even if completely extracted, all of the gold in these tailings would still be far less than the total aboveground worldwide stockpile of the metal. What about seawater extraction? Gold is ~100 times less plentiful in seawater than in the crust.

The bottom line is that at ~$200/cm3, gold at least minimally satisfies our eight criteria for an ideal tangible nanomoney. Its rareness will not be decisively altered by nanotechnology.

Why I am holding gold so dear ?
(This rhyme is quite revealing.)
It takes away that frightening fear,
that�s opposite to healing.
It gives me freedom - gives me calm.
It shines so lovely in my palm.
It makes me King - when dealing.

NEMO

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/04/rtr711815.htmlSnip:

"Falling stocks just bring to light the excessive risks banks are saddled with," said Hiroshi Hosoda at Rating and Investment Information, a domestic credit rating agency.

"This adversely hits their already weakened capital and leaves banks with less freedom to cope with other problems."
...........
If the Nikkei average falls towards 8,000, capital adequacy ratios at top banks could breach eight percent, the minimum required for globally operating banks, analysts said.

"I don't see a crisis as defined as capital adequacy ratios falling below eight percent," said an analyst at a foreign brokerage who declined to be named. "But meeting the requirement and being a sound bank is an entirely different issue."

To beef up capital, the banks are issuing subordinated bonds or preferred securities that cannot be converted into shares.

This brings its own risks.

Most of the buyers are life insurance firms, and the banks in return have given them subordinated loans to help their finances.

Under existing guidelines, loans to life insurers are categorised as healthy, so banks do not need to set aside provisions, regardless of an insurer's financial condition -- and many of them are in difficulty.
**********
Misetich

Tick...Tick...Tick... -

Got gold?

This is my opinion only, but hey! That's why we have a Forum!

As far as I can see, since Richard Butler (no relative of Ted's, although Smedley Butler (1881-1940) could well be Ted's grand-father) was turfed out of Iraq 3 or 4 years ago, all of the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) being gleefully created by Saddam Hussein's henchmen would all have been relocated to hospital, bomb-shelter and pre-school basements.

The only way the Bush Hawks could successfully cleanse Iraq of WMD's is, unfortunately, to bomb the crap out of the the aforesaid hospitals, pre-schools et al.

It is not going to be pretty, is it?

Gold offers the highest financial comfort, safety in the a crumbling financial house of cards

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/247/business/Planned_job_cutbacks_rise_in_August+.shtmlSnip:

By Bloomberg News, 9/4/2002

WASHINGTON - US job-cut announcements rose 46 percent in August from the previous month, according to a private survey.
........
The number of disclosed job cuts rebounded from a 14-month low reached in July. Consolidated Freightways Corp., the third-biggest US trucker, yesterday said it's ceasing operations and firing 15,500 workers.

''Job creation remains very low, capital spending is still virtually nonexistent, and there is nothing really moving to give this economy traction,'' John Challenger, the outplacement company's chief executive, said in a statement.
...........
''As companies wait for this elusive rebound, they will continue to eliminate jobs to preserve whatever profits they have been able to achieve,'' Challenger said.
***********
Misetich

Third Qtr pre-announcements will bring further job cuts -

Got gold?

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028186239562&p=1012571727285Snip:
Now that the bubble has burst and tax collection has collapsed, legislators are stuck with unpopular alternatives. Do they raise taxes, cut spending or increase debt? With the economy sputtering along, the first two options look pretty bad. But borrowing is unavailable to almost everyone bar the federal government in Washington - and even there it is unclear how wise it is. The internet bubble created these problems and they surely involve hundreds of billions of dollars.

Underfunding of Social Security, the US public pension system, has been a problem for years. And now we learn that the stock market boom and bust has created trouble for the private system. When high stock returns drive the accumulations in these private funds above the level that actuaries say they need, the sponsoring companies are allowed to make withdrawals. These "negative" pension contributions increase company profits, driving stock prices even higher.

Needless to say, a lot of this went on during the late 1990s. With the stock market falling, these pensions have become underfunded and so companies are now forced to put the money back in - money that, if it had not been for the bubble, would never have been withdrawn in the first place. Today, some say the size of the problem is about $100bn.
***********
Misetich
They thought they had fount Utopia - government, big business,central bankers - investors -

Where will this trail end?

Got gold?

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2002/nf2002093_9569.htmSnip:

More realistically, the nation is looking at annual deficits for the foreseeable future and increases in the national debt through the decade. Goldman Sachs economist John Youngdahl sees yearly deficits in the $200 billion range through 2007. Others, including Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for consultants High Frequency Economics, forecasts deficits of $300 billion-plus at least through 2004.

THE COMING CRUNCH. Even according to the CBO forecasts, the national debt won't get much lower than $3 trillion. If the Wall Streeters are right, it'll balloon to well over $4 trillion. And that wistful hope of getting the debt to zero? Gone with the wind. That, by the way, means the government will have to spend almost $2 trillion over the next 10 years just to pay interest on its bonds.
*********
Misetich
Are interest costs added on?
Are off-budget items taken in consideration?

Got gold?

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020904/0141000057_1.html
WASHINGTON (AP)--President Bush has promised to consult Congress before waging war in Iraq. He hasn't said whether he will explicitly ask Congress' approval to dispatch troops to depose Saddam, the Iraqi president.
----------------
Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, D-Vt., chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is drawing a line in the sand. "The administration should not expect to commit American troops to war with a wink and a nod to Congress," he said last week.

"There should be a full debate and a vote," Leahy said. "That is what the Constitution prescribes, and that is what the American people expect."

Gold provides a degree stability in tumultuous times. Besides, the Greenbacks look like monopoly money.

$$$$354.4$$$$
As a contrarian investor in general and a goldbug in particular. "Even a man with one eye can see a mountain". Now where did I hear that before ?.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXWyQxVyVG9waXggSnip:
"A drop in Japan's Topix Index to below 900 for the first time since December 1984 is raising the prospect that stock losses will force the government to rescue banks for the third time in four years, investors said. The Topix index fell 2 percent to 886.39 at the 3 p.m. close of trading in Tokyo. The average capital-adequacy ratio for Japan's seven biggest lenders would be 8.97 percent with the Topix at 900, according to HSBC Securities (Japan) Ltd. banking analyst Hironari Nozaki. The average would fall about 1 percentage point for each 100-point drop in the Topix, meaning an index decline to 800 would push it below the 8 percent minimum for banks with overseas operations.

The government may have a hard time coming up with much money. The national debt is projected to reach 140 percent of gross domestic product by March, the biggest burden in the industrialized world. ``The slide also raises concerns over a possible financial system meltdown and that's reflected in the banks' share prices,'' said Tetsuo Inoue, who manages about 10 billion yen in Japanese equities at UAM Japan Inc."

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_663524.html?menu=business.economy
--Former chief cabinet secretary Hidenao Nakagawa, known as a close aide to President Junichiro Koizumi, said the government should ask the Resolution and Collection Corp (RCC) buy bad loans from banks and inject public funds into banks as an additional anti-deflation measure.

"The current sharp decline in Japanese share prices has been reflecting the state of the ailing economy and predicts the future of the economy.

"Therefore, it is high time the government should take drastic measures to stop deflationary economic conditions," he told a business meeting.

"Especially at stake is how to resolve banks' bad loans problem, which is working against the flow of capital in the economy.

"Prime Minister Koizumi should undertake a policy measure to let the Resolution and Collection Corp buy the 52.4 trln yen in banks' bad loans at market value, which means the RCC should buy bad loans at 30-40% (of the book value)," he added.

In addition, he said: "When banks sell their bad loans some losses may be booked. In that case, the government should inject public funds into those banks which face the threat of a low capital base.

"Such a measure should be debated at the next extraordinary parliamentary session scheduled for this fall."

Citing data from the Financial Services Agency, Nakagawa said the outstanding balance of bad loans at banks jumped to 52.4 trln yen as of end-March this year from 38 trln the previous year.--

$$$ 316.00 $$$

On the one hand, Gold is a reliable store of value in this life; On the other hand, in the next life, Gold is pavement. Make the right preparations for life.

Gold. Its Tradition!

Tevye.

on the sterling scamRich, thanks for your kind words of support of yesterday. It is very important that the news of this thing gets out. We start on a few forums and it may prompt some government probes and response from the mainstream media! As an individual I do my part and only ask others to verify what I have found. We must always try, as individuals, to keep our society honest. It is a duty.

Rich has it exactly correct about my position on this "sterling" jewelry problem. Others have to. This is one of my interpretations for what is behind this situation, and I very much think that the concept has passed through the mind of Ted Butler as a speculation too. It is expressed in (part of) an email I received from my brother this morning:
*******snip
One of the guys in the office overheard M. P. [the owner of a silver broker] talking on the phone about phoney sterling jewelry. M. was out of the office at the time I called in, so I had no opportunity to discuss this with him, but you have obviously made quite an impression on real world silver market perceptions.
Obviously, pm fraud is widespread, both in gold and silver, and yes, I think this is the way
the market is handling the deficit. If the vast majority of silver jewelry is now fake, this would just about eliminate the supply deficit, and explains why those COMEX stockpiles sit
stubbornly at 107 Moz. Too bad for the CABAL, you can't use plated silver in photography.
When the public finds out about the jewelry fraud, they will just stop buying it, and the
CABAL wins again. Melt all small bars into 1000 ozers, and eliminate silver as a jewelry
metal, and you have eliminated a huge chunk of non-industrial demand (jewelry and investment demand).
************
Now you see from whence I also come.

Best regards,

G.

"Bush won't attack without approval from Congress"

What does this mean and does it lower the chances of Iraq/US war?

Ha Ha,
Thanks for the essay, what a hoot! A great argument for gold as money.

In yesterday's mail I received "Your Social Security Statement," detailing my projected benefits. On the fourth page it contains the following statement: "...That amount [my actual benefit] may differ from the estimates below because ... The laws governing benefit amounts may change, because, by 2041, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 73 percent of benefits owed."

In other words, it has already been decided that monetary deficiencies in the Social Security program will be fixed by not meeting present benefits obligations.

When it actually starts happening, I wonder what percentage of Americans will openly recognize it as a 'default.'

I'm predominately an energy trader but I do have a few precious metals questions related to platinum.

I have heard the platinum is an intrical component for extracting hydrogen on most prevalent fuel cell processes. How and why? If we make a push towards fuel cell technology, will it significantly increase the demand for platinum? Can the platinum be reused or is it more of a catalytic process? How much current platinum production from the CIS? BB & others. Are you as bullish on platinum as you are on gold?

Intense selling to continue, says noted researcherBy Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:05 AM ET Sept. 4, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A noted researcher on Wednesday confirmed the first levels of panic selling in the U.S. stock market since April 2001.

Noted researcher confirms panic selling on NYSE

The selling Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange drove stock indexes down more than 4 percent in a day. Paul F. Desmond said Tuesday's activity qualified as a so-called 90 percent downside day -- an indication the worst in the stock market is far from over.

Desmond, president of researcher Lowry's Reports, says 92.2 percent of total volume on the NYSE Tuesday was negative. Total points lost among the stocks that traded reached 94.2 percent.

"This is strong evidence that the July low was only a temporary market bottom, that investors are just beginning to panic and that the broad market is headed for significant new lows," Desmond said in his strongest statement to date about the direction of the equity market.

Desmond is held in high regard by technical analysts. His work on bear-market bottoms earned him the Charles Dow Award for research this year. Desmond's research, going back to 1933, shows the stock market virtually always undergoes prolonged stretches of intense selling before a bear-market bottom is formed.

Desmond has long argued that most investors are refusing to acknowledge the fiscal pain they have endured in this, the third year of falling stock-market indexes. Acceptance of their dire financial straits and panic selling go hand in hand, he says from his Florida office.

Desmond identifies such selling by gauging negative volume on points lost. "History shows that major market bottoms in the past have been preceded by an average of five 90 percent downside days before the final lows," he says.

From November 1973 to December 1974, 14 of these 90 percent downside days occurred. Desmond's studies indicate no stock market can launch a meaningful and lasting rally without the horrible, nerve-jangled selling that comes with a full-blown panic. Such wholesale selling eventually ignites demand for low-priced securities. See: Red writing on the wall.

Nasdaq on Tuesday failed to exceed the threshold for panic selling. Negative volume reached 94.1 percent Tuesday but points lost equaled just 88.5 percent. "We expect to see several 90 percent downside days on Nasdaq before the start of a sustained uptrend," Desmond told CBS.MarketWatch.com on Wednesday.

Nasdaq's main index lost 3.9 percent Tuesday vs. a 4.1 percent loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 4.7 percent loss for the NYSE Composite Index (NYA: news, chart, profile)

Desmond in his research saw no signs during the September 2001 decline, or afterward, that investors had truly thrown in the towel on the stock market. In other words, there were no NYSE days when 90 percent of all trading activity was marked by falling prices for the securities exchanged and 90 percent of prices were negative, as measured by points lost. The last such day came April 3, 2001, when 90.8 percent of NYSE volume was in the red and 90.7 percent of all points gained or lost were in the minus column

Desmond's research flies in the face of many Wall Street brokerages and economists, who say this summer's selling represented a buying opportunity for long-suffering investors. The veteran researcher's findings point to a prolonged, and painful, healing process for stocks, which Desmond regards as still expensive by historic standards.

The silver lining in Desmond's findings is that such panic-laden sales "are typically followed by snap-back rallies lasting from two to seven days before the downtrend resumes." The snap-backs, alas, are meant as exit points for those who no longer can tolerate their long-standing stock-market losses.

"Such rallies usually provide a good opportunity for investors to sell into strength," says Desmond, who regards Tuesday's NYSE activity as a landmark day. The October 1987 stock market crash led to numerous 90 percent downside days that eventually triggered bargain-hunting by patient investors.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

About the panic selling. It's the mutual funds who are panicing.They see no end to the outflows and very soon they will lose what slim cash they currently have [Thanks to their idiotic "All equities" policies]. That will be a watershed moment because the funds will be forced to sell in real-time with redenptions. In other words, the funds will lose any selling time-buffer they had thus exaggerating the DOW's actions. Paniced sellers call to redeem - Funds sell the stocks at the same time.

About the war. Large commercial ships carrting battle tanks are being loaded and shipping for the ME. This hardly sounds like Bush plans to "consult" with Congress.

If (big if) any central bank has been unloading (selling/leasing) reserve-Gold, physically, from its vaults...this CB knows the possible, very, dangerous consequence of not seeing it back in its vaults, in physical form. The same goes for forward selling of underground Gold or any private individual who should give his/her physical Gold out of his/her hands. Whatever the purpose was/is, for giving one's physical out of hand...the future settlement of the deal will mostly turn out much differently as espected.

I've come to the point where I'm NOT interested anymore as to how CBs/Miners/BBs or private Gold, will settle their Gold trade ! I'm only interested in "who" wants to "hold" "how much" physical Gold and for "how long" ?
In other words : Who puts the confetti (digits) into question, today/tomorrow, and how serious is the real depreciation of any fiat so far ?

For as long as CBs do have physical Gold in their vaults as a reserve...they will be forced (inclined to) to use this tangible reserve, somehow, sometime. It even doesn't matter that much of how many tonnes are left. As soon as fiat distrust gains the upperhand...Gold will be valued accordingly.

Postfactum, CBs will claim, that they did everything they could, even selling Gold from its reserves, to protect the citizen's currency. Bullion banks might even be praised (and rewarded) for their co-operation on fiat's trust-campaign. All this regardless of how everything will be settled at the day of final reckoning. The day that more and more people (Giants or lilliputans) decide by " basic instinct" that the confetti is no longer to be trusted and that moronic priced physical Gold becomes a very wise alternatif. Making "available" Gold scarce and forcing all Gold-managing parties to settle their trades in one way or another.

If bullion banks or miners or central banks, want to settle
their contracts, exclusively, with fiat...they must have that fiat or able to generate it ! Find billions of fiat or tonnes of Gold ! If not, default, or/and, be eaten by your creditor. 3.000 tonnes of underground, forward sold, Gold *must* be mined or bought on the market and X-tonnes of vault-gone CB Gold must be returned or paid for or bought in the market. None of these settlements are possible when a POG rising trend should attract physical accumulation of Gold. Miners don't have any money to buy Gold in the market and bullion banks have either. If CBs accept fiat instead of physical Gold...underground Gold will smell *the* opportunity of being in command on the conditions for returning (mining) the Gold. The Giants will smell this too and will add pressure by increasing the POG with accumulating physical (making it scarcer).

All the above only changes (shortens not prolonges) the timing of the final unwinding of the Gold drama. But makes no difference to the fundamental growing distrust of the confetti's intrinsic worth.

If the Japanese banking domino goes down, the global banking crisis, (read : run) might well take a temptatif start. This unresolved banking crisis since 1995 (Japanese bank run � la 1929) could very probably become a *high profile* thing with a lot of scaring noice, attracting undiscrete/unwanted, attention on US's banks. Add on this a fiat settlement for reserve Gold...and kaboom, POG panics and gaps up and away, whatever the settlement than might be.

Those forces who decide on POG's behavior are holding the key to unlock Gold and let it be FREE. The coming POG rise will be completely different in nature as that what we have seen in the past 21 years (1980>2001). Official OR private Gold will decide on fiat's future role and importance.
That's why Gold has been locked (is locked) after all. W've come to the stage of impossible "in-between" solution, being a bit more of fiat depreciation and a bit higher POG (400$/600$/1.200$). No ! This time it is going to be a dramatic re-emergence of Gold into the center of the monetary spectrum. We must not exclude that CB(s) even might confiscate part or the complete 3.000 tonnes of "deep storage" Gold, down the mine's shafts. This if the bulk of these 3.000 tonnes of underground gold can't possibly be mined anymore (profitably) in the context of an hyperinflation.

Everything is always possible ! Gold advocates only have to worry about the public's remaining confidence in confetti and other paper (bonds/stocks).
When the gold-industry (WGC) suggested to make Gold more available with the means of gold-bonds (paper-gold), they admitted indirectly to be co-operative with all fiat advocates and defenders !!! The rumor that CBs should be prepared to accept fiat (settlement) for their lost (?) goldreserves is more of the same fiat-advocacy !!!

I DON'T WANT THAT PAPER ANYMORE ! BASTA !

Regards to you Herr Knallgold.

(09/04/02; 10:38:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 84321)Questions about platinum

I have heard the platinum is an intrical component for extracting hydrogen on most prevalent fuel cell processes. How and why?
**** A Catalyst makes a reaction "speed up", or react faster, WITHOUT changing or consuming the catalyst !
Catalysts are RARE EARTH components !!

If we make a push towards fuel cell technology, will it significantly increase the demand for platinum?
****** Maybe ! Depends on the demand for other uses.
One would think that demand for Automobile exhaust converters may not need the consumption of the past.

Can the platinum be reused or is it more of a catalytic process?
******* Fuzzy question here ! Pt is not consumed and may be recovered when it is used as a catalyst !

How much current platinum production from the CIS?
****** I do not know !

Are you as bullish on platinum as you are on gold ?
****** BIG, NO !!! I do not know of any Central Banks that hold Pt as a WEALTH equivalent !

Now we await BETTER answers from the EXPERTS !
<;-)

$$$$375.00$$$#

Gold shines nicely when polished and makes me feel good when I hold it....did I mention that later someone else may be willing to give me many more pieces of fiat for it than I gave to get it?

I've been a lurker on this site for a long time and studying the gold issue for many years. But I only made an investment in bullion early this year. My reason for believing that gold is an important investment is that it is the ultimate real money and that my fear that the current pyramid of paper is in jeopardy has makes gold the perfect way to preserve and protect my family's savings.

Like a spikeSee if it holds thru the COMEX close.

$$$$$$329.8$$$$$$$
As the Cabal's situation deteriorates, they are barely hanging on by their fingernails to a critical level.
Snowballing equity losses have forced the Fed to add lots of liquidity to the banks to jolly all the martkets along, but the Dollar and Bonds have "gotten wind " of it and are starting to tank, putting lots more pressure on JPM interest rate derivatives. Gold derivatives will fail in the fortnight after this contest ends.As for gold, it seems its the only power that isn't lying to the American people just now.
Bowing to the boards virtue....

I own gold because it holds a nonperishable value, it is a true store of wealth. Gold has been THE true measure of wealth for thousands of years, and in todays world of fiat money, gold will shine it's light so bright that the "many" will realize what a "few" already know.

Wim Duisenbergh (ECB) : Gold will remain an important asset in monetary policy. For obvious reasons, he couldn't say : Gold is the ultimate monetary reserve !
Platinum is an industrial commodity, fully controled by South Africa and Russia ! Rule of thumb was (!) that Pt always was priced as follows : POG + 100$ per ounce. This for the time that Gold was considered, only, as a commodity as well. This *commodity* relationship (Au/Pt) has been broken since 1995 !!! Co-incidence ? No Sir ! So, platinum now lives his own life. Forget about fuel-cells for the time being. There's an oil-war going on there. We will exhaust the existing "cheap" oil reserves before any serious alternative will be put in practice. (No Bush in Johannesburg-!) . Central Banks have no oil reserves and therefore have to go to war for it. Ferdinand Lips gave us his book on the history of the Gold wars. This as an answer to your question if I'm as bullish on Pt as on Au ! No I am definitely not !

Recently, Pt, failed to confirm a very bullish signal on its 560$ LT-resistance line. But in French we say, reculer pour mieux sauter (one step back to jump further). Since Pt is dominated by an oligarchy, its price will always be nicely managed at "their" convience.

Some funny math : Pt = 540$. Therefore commodity gold (not monetary Gold) should be priced 440$ (past rule of thumb).
Another (past) relation between POG and POO was a factor 13 to 15x. POO 28$ x 15 = 420$, pretty close in line with the Au/Pt relation.

The reason *why* Au is only priced at 313$ is daily elaborated here at the USAGOLD-forum. This bit of rather infantile math, only accentuates the pressure that exists on Gold as a monetary asset (not as commodity) to defend worthless fiat. Conclusion : Gold isn't even allowed to behave as a commodity anymore !!!! That explosive is the state of affairs today.

Asking why gold is important to me is like asking someone in Miami why plywood was important to them before Hurricane Andrew hit. I don't want my damn financial house blown away! The difference is at least people in the path of the hurricane were accurately warned. Cabal rigging and media propoganda will give most people no chance to protect their wealth until the financial hurricane hits. These are extraodinary times, I don't think comparisons to 1929 or prior bubbles do justice to the gravity of the problems. Helpless urban dwellers,derivatives, and nuclear maniacs are but three scary things that didn't exist 70 years ago. The fine folks here at CPM are basically insurance salesmen. What portion of your portfolio do you want to insure with the barberous relic?

I'm an Elliott Wave /Bob Prechter devotee who believes the deflationary bout that is unfolding will depress the price of all commodities further, including gold. I am none-the-less adding to my personal physical gold holdings on a regular basis especially on price dips.

Contest ......$324.50Let me lift this big rock up (my burden has been qiite heavy lately) and climb out of my despair for a few minutes to yawn and stretch and poke my head outside. What a beautiful day! The air is fresh and the very existence of "freedom" that I feel has more value to me than anything else in the world. (maybe I watch too much History channel) Of course like all of us I would like that freedom spent in comfort and safety, neverless today I am a free man and I can choose to do whatever the heck I want. That's awesome! For now I choose to stay home after completing my 2 hour power walk at one of the beautiful bird sanctuary's located next to the Long Island Sound here in beautiful Connecticut.

My birthday of all days is 9-10 the day before the most horrible event that has ever occurred on American soil. How was I to know that life as I know it would never be the same again the day after my last birthday? I don't know about any of you but it sure has taken a toll on my physic. Just one more thing to complain to my VA shrink about.

Its been a difficult task but I have been struggling to keep my home economics course updated and current here at USA Gold. Even as the landscape changes around us continually and though the face of the sky often helps us discern the weather. When the markets change so fast with no consistency it catches the uninformed sheeple off guard and many lose much. It amazes me that we can discern the skys and know when the sun raises or sets or when a north storm is blowing in, yet the CBNC Crew and those that join their opinions can't discern these obvious signs that the financal markets have revealled to us and they are in dire distress yet the masses just don't see that perfect storm brewing. Can you see it Blade? How about you Mish? or you Mr "G" can you see the perfect storm coming? I could go around the table and I think we are all in agreement.

My guess for the price of gold is $324.50. I have a personal reason for that number. I coud list many reasons to own gold. I've been in precious metals since 1998. It has given me and my family a sense of financial security especially now when the stock market is acting like some kind of water wiggle gone out of control and when do you get back in without getting wet? My advice is you don't. Get Gold.

I sleep better knowing deep in my great heart I have provided my family with some valuable assets, real money and at the same time insurance on that dreaded rainy day that approaches us all. Remember the Blade's words, stock up the best you can. Who but God himself knows what lurks behind the corner but its best not to get hit blinded. We've all be forwarned.

Well, back to my other projects. Good day all and thanks for listening.

Rock AKA Great Heart!

I have the feeling that political events will accelerate. Weeks ahead may be bumpy.
Greetings to all.

Pippin (09/04/02; 12:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 84335)NOW tell us WHY gold is important to you !
----REQUIRED discussion item for entry----
Thanks
<;-)

ARE those the reasons that you have gold ?
Trying to understand !
Thanks
<;-)

A complete asset in your hand.

The(physical)CoinGuy

www.mining webGold

Comment on
A $5 mystery for gold
Date
2002/09/04 Wed


Name
Bill Murphy
Email Address
LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com
Subject
You are begging the question, Tim


Hi Tim,


You have done your best to bash me, which is fair. You have not been fair in your latest diatribe
against me concerning a 17 year old copper report. You and I know it was instigated by Jeff
Christian, a former Goldman Sachs employee, who is of the bearded, daft world. Beards are great,
it his stupidity that is so offensive. Why won't you DISCLOSE that to the MININGWEB???

Why are you so defensive in bringing this fact to your readership?

You have crapped on me ever since you attended our C-Span covered press conference at the
Washington Press Club luncheon on Lincoln's Birthday.
John Mesrobian, a mega MININGWEB follower would like to meet with you in New York to calmly go
over the gold issues.

From what John tells me, you REFUSE to meet with him.

Is that true? If so, you have sunk to a new low - just an extenuation of The New York Times, Wall
Street Journal, Washington Post, Rueters and Bloomberg - all of which have not MENTIONED
GATA in over 3 years. We do not exist in their George Orwellian world.

If you cannot even agree to meet with a GATA supporter who has the most honorable of intentions,
one has to wonder whether you have the gold world at interest, or THE PIG world of George Orwell.

Please respond to John Mesrobian, if you even read this.

Best regards,

Bill Murphy

mining web
Comment on
You are begging the question, Tim
Date
2002/09/04 Wed


Name
Tim Wood
Email Address
timber@mineweb.net
Subject
Reply to Bill Murphy


Hi Bill



I have never bashed you, but you have a right to your opinion.



It was first and foremost about your CFTC expulsion and fine which ultimately stemmed from your
trading following that copper study.

the bearded, daft world. Beards are great, it his stupidity that is so offensive.>

Bill, I'm not sure why you are always so quick to call people names. Peter Palmedo is your Mickey
Mouse, now Jeff Christian is stupid and his facial hair gets mentioned along with Goldman Sachs,
as though it's the gold market equivalent to HIV. Why? How is it ever relevant.

You clearly revel in living by the sword of your tongue which is why it is odd that you are so
sensitive to criticism. However, I have never, never come across anyone among the professionals
who has resorted to calling you names the way you do them.



The story was NOT prompted by Jeff Christian, but by a friend who is also in the media.



I was given a copy of the CFTC investigation and sanction, which piqued my interest because it
was vastly more serious than you had alluded to in our earlier conversations. You made the copper
report important because you said it was what prompted you to go long copper and the CFTC
investigation spans that activity.

In following up on that report, professionals in copper at the time did not know of a World Bank
report by Frank Veneroso. Jeff Christian was one of the people I consulted. In a subsequent
conversation with Mr Veneroso, it became clear that it was not a conventional World Bank report
and was commissioned in an unusual way by the IFC and the Escondida partners as a follow up to
the overall due diligence for the project. Mr Veneroso also denied that you could have studied his
report as you claim since he was constrained by confidentiality issues from giving it to you.

Washington Press Club luncheon on Lincoln's Birthday.>

Nonsense. You copped a fair hearing on that day; indeed no other publication even mentioned it.
We have always had a contentious relationship, but that doesn't stop us reporting on you. We don't
have an agenda or thrive on vendettas. I, personally, have consistently reported on the
circumstantial credibility of the investigations by Reg Howe and James Turk.

go over the gold issues. >

It is impossible to conduct a rational conversation with Mesrobian. I have tried to understand him
through a lengthy e-mail correspondence and he is simply incapable of backing up his assertions
with facts. He is always eager for me to write only bullish gold news or to bash Barrick, but never
vice versa.



It's not that I refuse, I just couldn't be bothered. There is nothing that he can say or offer that is of
any value to either me or our global audience, now 100,000 strong. Just look at his obsession with
Nick Goodwin for brilliantly calling the most recent top and urging investors to wait before getting
back in. He cannot bear that Nick saw the turn back to $300 while John was calling for everyone to
keep building long positions at $320+. Nick is a trader's dream, yet he has been thoroughly
maligned by John who now admits that he has not personally studied Nick's model.

Street Journal, Washington Post, Rueters and Bloomberg - all of which have not MENTIONED
GATA in over 3 years. We do not exist in their George Orwellian world. >

Everyone has a a right to speak, nobody has a not a right to be heard and least of all to be
mentioned in the media.

intentions>

He does not have honorable intentions. An e-mail Mesrobian sent me inadvertenly (it was meant for
another Web outlet) indicates what his real agenda is. It is nothing I could be interested in.

Orwell.>

I think you have hit the nail on the head Bill. Miningweb is not a gold shill, it is happy to consider
every angle. We do not dwell in a parallel universe where Tim Wood is on the payroll of the bullion
banks. One of your most paranoid supporters once said I had taken instruction from JP Morgan.
Glad to hear this, I called JP Morgan human resources the next morning to demand the health
insurance I lack as an independent. After all, if I'm on the take can't they even spare an HMO plan!
No luck. I suffered similar rejection from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche, UBSW, BMO, Scotia, Merrills
ad infinitum. If someone could pass me the conspiracy hotline, I would be glad for it, because I
could use some more income.



I filter his e-mails and have now started to filter his Web comments. It is pointless; he operates at a
sub-rational level where only he is right.

1970's/1980 gold run-up. I was there. He had all the Arab accounts, as well as the big politicos,
business and movie star accounts. He was to GOLD what Bunker Hunt was to SILVER!>

And Miningweb is happy to take the kudos for letting Jim's voice be heard more widely in 2000,
when Bill also called him names because at that time he did not believe there was any conspiracy.

Regards
Tim

I hold gold because it's rare, durable, and beautiful, agreeing with Alan Greenspan that gold "stands as a protector of property rights." and Hans Sennholz who believes "no other commodity enjoys as much universal acceptability and marketability as gold." Winston Churchill said that making profits is "not a vice" and "Nothing in life is so exhilerating as to be shot at without result.", both experiences from HOLDING gold! It's also reassuring that the disingenuous of the world can only parrot an anti-gold screech, deaf to the soothing and enabling strains of gold's unending symphony. To hold gold is to continue the achievements of all human ancestors, affirming the traditions and standards of thousands of years of free market trades and human progress.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThanks Black Blade! Hey...rather than "The Afternoon Gold Report", how about "The Blade Gold Report"? :)

$$$$329.80$$$$ Good Day To All. First, I should say thank you for your insight and colorful commentaries over the past two years. Learning CAN be fun.
For the past five years I have been part of a junior mining/exploration co. that will soon be public, and have often shared with the board members your analysis of the gold market. There is gold in them thar hills, and I don't think we'll be hedging -- that's an understatement. In fact, we probably won't sell until the spot is close to REAL market value. I believe that there is already one company in CANADA that is doing just that.
My reason for holding gold is for insurance, as much as it is for an investment. There are going to be troublesome days ahead, but those same days will also be the greatest days. I believe that there will be a significant transfer of wealth from the "unjust" {I think we have an idea who some of those are}to the "just". This is not speculation, my source has a perfect tract record for reliability.
One hero of mine, the late Admiral H. Rickover, had a plack on the wall that read "Where there is no vision, the people perish". Hosea, son of Beeri, once wrote, "my people perish for lack of knowledge". They were both right. Right on the money you might say....no pun intended.
I think that there exists in this forum, both vision {for a better, more honest world}, and knowledge. Since wisdom is the correct application of knowledge, I do believe that much of that is present here also.
Godspead to the truth. ---- roger that

--Roger--

$$$ 345.00 $$$

My cyclical model tells me that we are in an up-phase which should peak around this level towards the end of September. I'll guess that it will get there by settlement.

Btw, who thinks that Mining Web/Tim Wood is fair and objective in its/his coverage? While Bill Murphy does himself no favors by flying off the handle at the smallest provocation, I must say that in the limited time that I have followed Tim Wood, I have found that he shows indecent haste in publishing anything anti-GATA/anti-GATA associated stocks like DROOY (e.g. MWW's visa episode), and deplorable laziness in promoting any news that is bullish for gold. Indeed, HedgingWeb would seem to be a more appropriate title. What say you, ladies and gentlemen?

Why gold is important....Something (gold) has to be a measure of value against currencies. Therefore, my personal choice are gold coins. Helps me sleep at night...ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

Only one prudent reflexion, with personal mixed emotions, on goldmine-writings out of South Afrika. When a country's currency (the rand) is, now more than ever before, completely at the goldmining's service...
Do fill in, the dots, yourself, and take peace with the obvious conclusions. Gold being the anti-thesis of fiat and the South African Golden Arch, producing a permanent depreciating currency that soon will even be too expensive to print it. What an ugly tragedy.

$$$$$312.50$$$$$
Gold coinage is the store of monetary wealth. As coinage, gold has protected many a person from both financial and physical harm. For me gold coinage is both finacial and life insurance which only my family need be aware of. I have traveled to far down the road of life to not have realized that fiat currencies of any color will enslave us.

Greetings from Japan,
No one has lined up in front of the banks here, yet. My friends are seriously considering it, however. The mood is more gloomy than it has ever been. We were looking at the financial news from NY and ran across INTEL's rise in price before it reports earnings. The reason for this rise was because the investment houses, brokers, banks, etc. all lowered the earnings expectations for this company. As hard as we have it over here, we had to laugh at that one. The last rounds of these lowered earning estimates was after SEP 11th (attack of the cowards)in order to keep the market afloat. Do you think we'll see more of these? Hope the gold prices hold steady for a little longer as I need to buy more!

@Gandalf- This is my corrected entry, Hoople reserved $329.20.

Good to hear from you. Keep it up, ok? Your entry was taken by Goldenpeace. It's getting crowded up there already! Cheers!

Yes I too am a long time lurker at this distinguished forum. I would prefer to be called a long time student. The interaction of members ideas and knowledge has made all who attend this forum a power to be reckoned with. I would like to remphasize to all an idea I have seen cross this forum many times. We each have the responsibility to tell as many others as possible what an illusion our current monetary system really is. Again, I am proud to be a member of this distinguished community.

After the anniversary of Sept. 11 and just prior to
Yom Kippur on Sept. 16 there will either be a major
terrorist incident or the expectation of one. Therefore
I will suggest the price of gold will rise to $$$ 121.4 $$$.

Good luck to all !!!!

Balzac.

SORRY, The number should read $$$ 321.4 $$$

Balzac

Take your point, Belgian, but surely a big rise in POG will allow an interval between the various acts of the S African tragedy - after all, it took Mugabe over 2 decades to ruin his country, and the main reason why he is going about it with such abandon is that he draws his own salary from the Congo - something which is not true of Mbeki and Co.

Roger The Shrubber (09/04/02; 16:10:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 84343)
Vision
$$$$329.80$$$$
===
Thanks Sir Mikal for the correction and assistance to Sir Roger ---
YES, Sir Roger, PLEASE try another GUESS as that one has been taken.
Please ALL, try to check the lastest UPDATE and see if your GUESS has been taken by a PRIOR entry.
EVEN though it is only the SECOND day of the Contest, entries are FLOODING IN and things are BUNCHING !
LOVE IT ! --- But you will have to do a little more work before you can claim the GOLDEN PRIZES !
<;-)

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1221MorganChase tells GATA it wants to be a leader
in financial disclosure:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1221

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXaK1BOVR29sZG1hSnip:

By George Stein


New York, Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse First Boston Inc. are being investigated by the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, which is widening its probe of research conflicts of interest and allocations of initial share offerings at securities firms.

Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Henry Paulson and Credit Suisse Chief Executive Officer John Mack were asked by the committee to turn over documents, e-mails, compensation formulas and all records related to their work with communications and technology firms.
*********
Misetich

Got gold?

My guess: $$$$398.60$$$$
I believe in gold and precious metals because they are the only thing that makes sense in a world that has turned upside down, where "yes" means "no" and the truth seems to be a lie.

UPDATE #4 (as of 18:20 Denver time 9/4/02)
====
$$$$ 375.0 $$$$ Henri (09/04/02; 10:58:18MT - msg#: 84326)

$$$$ 362.3 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (09/04/02; 05:21:24MT - msg#: 84304)

$$$$ 354.4 $$$$ perform (09/04/02; 07:34:49MT - msg#: 84313)

$$$$ 353.4 $$$$ darkhorse (09/03/02; 20:56:04MT - msg#: 84280)

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Socrates964 (09/04/02; 16:11:50MT - msg#: 84344)

$$$$ 342.5 $$$$ gvc (09/03/02; 17:08:12MT - msg#: 84255)

$$$$ 341.7 $$$$ old gold (09/04/02; 11:40:02MT - msg#: 84330)

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (09/03/02; 22:36:21MT - msg#: 84289)

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ misetich (09/04/02; 05:28:30MT - msg#: 84307)
$$$$ 331.2 $$$$ Pippin (09/04/02; 12:50:09MT - msg#: 84335)

$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/04/02; 11:36:15MT - msg#: 84329)

$$$$ 329.3 $$$$ mikal (09/04/02; 17:08:29MT - msg#: 84349)
$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ The Hoople (09/04/02; 12:04:30MT - msg#: 84332)

$$$$ 328.5 $$$$ steady (09/03/02; 20:14:41MT - msg#: 84272)

$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/04/02; 11:15:13MT - msg#: 84327)

$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Trapper (09/03/02; 20:12:26MT - msg#: 84271)

$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ luckypierre (09/03/02; 15:20:51MT - msg#: 84244)

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (09/03/02; 18:33:51MT - msg#: 84261)

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ Galerider (09/03/02; 20:53:27MT - msg#: 84279)

$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ The CoinGuy (09/04/02; 13:00:07MT - msg#: 84338)

$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Rock (09/04/02; 12:19:18MT - msg#: 84334)

$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (09/04/02; 05:02:31MT - msg#: 84302)

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Boxman (9/4/02; 04:27:17MT - msg#: 84301)

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ a nation of one (09/03/02; 13:55:53MT - msg#: 84229)

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Tommy P (09/03/02; 14:33:23MT - msg#: 84233)

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ balzac (09/04/02; 17:22:15MT - msg#: 84353)

$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ The Knife (09/04/02; 16:30:43MT - msg#: 84345)
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (09/03/02; 12:29:20MT - msg#: 84221)

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (09/03/02; 13:18:00MT - msg#: 84226)

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (09/03/02; 15:06:26MT - msg#: 84240)

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - msg#: 84257)
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ slingshot (09/03/02; 16:57:17MT - msg#: 84254)

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ davefinger (09/03/02; 14:52:14MT - msg#: 84235)
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ koala bear (9/4/02; 04:08:54MT - msg#: 84299)

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ Bulldog (09/03/02; 21:53:40MT - msg#: 84288)

$$$$ 318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ Tevye (09/04/02; 08:02:40MT - msg#: 84316)

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (09/04/02; 07:34:44MT - msg#: 84312)

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Frosty (09/03/02; 18:59:09MT - msg#: 84265)

$$$$ 313.3 $$$$ Woodie (09/03/02; 23:41:11MT - msg#: 84291)

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ SilverHoard (09/04/02; 17:01:10MT - msg#: 84347)

$$$$ 311.4 $$$$ De Ronin (09/04/02; 12:16:42MT - msg#: 84333)
===

FYI ------HIGH, Low and Settlement Price of GC2Z on:
9/3/02 $315.9 $314.1 $315.0s
9/4/02 $317.1 $313.8 $316.5s Change + $1.5
====

THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
---
Thanks all you FORMER LURKERS that have already entered this CONTEST ! WELCOME !!
<;-)

Believer (09/04/02; 18:22:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 84358)
My Contest Prediction

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/04/rtr712898.htmlSnip:

Even if the market's favorite candidate stages a comeback to win the Oct. 6 presidential election, a slowing global economy and the threat of a U.S. military attack on Iraq could mean Brazil's credit crunch lasts longer than expected, they said.
.........
"In this context, people are being extra cautious, which suggests that there won't be a dramatic turnaround in the credit
**********
Misetich

Global economic slowdown may force Brazil into default

Got gold?

In August the Mint sold
more Silver Eagles than any month this year and any
August in the program's history. Sales of 1,745,000

The coming year should also see the release of an
unlimited mintage of a special one-ounce silver coin
commemorating the 9/11 attacks,
**
proceeds according to Ted will go to Sept 11 victims families. Boy wouldn't it be the collectable if it had the Twin Towers impression on it.

Not real easy to understand but I did take special note of this sentence,

"While notional principal is the most commonly used volume measure in derivatives and foreign exchange markets, it is not a measure of credit risk."

On this I'll have to agree. Mr. Borden also explains that the net exposure is what is reported to shareholders while all positions must be reported to exchange regulators. This also seems okay as long as the shareholders understand that their statement shows NET risk while the complete statement shows all the pieces which boil down to net exposure.
Basically, there are huge and potentially almost unlimited risks involved with buying or selling futures (derivatives) and with selling options. There is no risk with buying options. There is a one time, up front cost necessary to buy an option but that is all that can be lost- total, no matter what. So, if an at-risk position is covered by an option that has only a one time, up front cost, then the positions combined can lose no more than the initial cost of the option (plus commission costs which are next to nothing for JPMC). So, in essense, this combined position requires the initial premium cost of the option (already paid at time of purchase) and margin but has no further downside risk.

This all refers to the fiat game and in no way reflects on gold or silver sold which may or may not ever be repaid in metal form. M.K. once stated that he believes that only about 3000 tons has really left bank vaults. With gold I don't pretend to have a clue as to whether repayment in metal will ever be possible. With silver I don't believe leased silver can be repaid in metal form (mho).
Back to derivatives, Borden's response seems reasonable to me. No judgement here on whatever those positions are!, just that what he explains makes sense. I still disagree with (or don't fully understand) Sinclair's idea that POG at a certain level (POG=354) will result in disaster. Counterparty risk always exists and physical paybacks aren't likely but notional derivatives risk can not be determined without considering all offsetting positions and, of course, the resulting naked exposure risk at that one particular moment in time.
Thoughts?
Rich

Hold Gold to HAVE some tangible assets for some of the fruits of my blood, sweat and tears (LABOR! Deny consumption today to pass on TRUE WEALTH to my sons.

$$$333.70 gold has played a key roll in stablizing my portfolio to the good! Seems the only stable thing to date!!!

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1031148720000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

By Matthew Saltmarsh

BRUSSELS (MktNews) - EU finance ministries are finally coming
around to a view held in the private sector for some time -- that this
year's eurozone growth rate will be around 1%, perhaps less. But that
admission makes existing euro area deficit reduction goals even tougher
and will further complicate the debate on whether to ease rules
constraining spending.

Well-placed officials have told Market News International that
finance ministry forecasters in most EU members now agree with the
International Monetary Fund that eurozone growth this year will be
around 1% and perhaps less -- well below forecasts made in Spring, which
were around 1.5%.
********
Misetich

From continent to continent global economic slowdown continues
How can the current stock market values be justified?

Got gold?

Thanks for the good silver news. The Mint issued some 90% silver coins with the old Buffalo nickel design some time back and sold out immediately. Commemorative silver coins will be affordable to almost everyone and may give the silver situation some publicity. Hopefully, demand will be strong enough to call for extra mintings.

Officially, the "Mint" will not purchase silver until 2003. Unofficially, it has been reported by Mr. Morgan that the supplier of the silver rounds used to stamp the coins has started to build inventory in anticipation of the government's order of 10 million ounces. How much silver is still readily available? Apparently not enough for the sterling silver jewelry business.
Rich

Hello allWhy gold is important to me: I see possession of gold as a chance to make it through a storm, perhaps even prosper when others are going under. Possessing gold is my vote against the current system. : )

Please post my guess at $$$$333.40 $$$$.
Personally, I , hold 1/3 mining stocks, 1/3 physical gold, and 1/3 physical silver. The reason is I DO NOT trust our government and know that if you want to make money, FOLLOW THE MONEY ! It makes sense when people like Soros, Gates and Buffet buy silver. No place better to be in bad times than gold and silver in any form. Read Ezekial 7 vs. 19. The bible tells us it will be the last thing of value in end times. Who is of better authority than JEHOVAH ?
Best of luck to all!

Gold is the wealth of kings and that's good enough for me. ANOTHER reason-Presently gold is cheap in USD.

When the talk turns to silver coins, I think about the bi-metalic system of coinage which served this country well for long periods of its history. Is all this talk about the collectability of Silver Eagles and commerative silver dollars the real purpose or the best use for this silver. Would someone add up the total mintage to date for Silver Eagles alone. Then estimate the quantity of old Morgan and Peace dollars in VG-VF condition. Then estimate the quantity of junk silver coins available. If a number is arrived at would it not represent a base to be paired up with the Gold Eagle coin program and be capable of supporting a bi-metalic monetary system. Yes, I know that there is not enough to replace current total monies outstanding. However, if a couple of zeros were removed from the currency, would we not be back to the same point before the current dollar value had been inflated away. I know there are a dozen other arguements against this idea. It is an idea that lurks in my mind for our future. I just yearn for a strong stable monetary system for ourselves and our children. A good nite to all the citizens of the realm

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APXUdoRVrQnJhemls
Snippit:

Rio de Janeiro, Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian bonds posted their biggest slide in three weeks on concern the presidential candidate favored by most investors won't be able to close the gap on his leading rival. Jose Serra has pulled into a statistical tie with Popular Socialist Ciro Gomes for second place, while still trailing frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 17 percentage points, according to a Vox Populi poll. The survey showed Lula's support rising, boosting concern the Workers' Party candidate may be elected outright in the Oct. 6 voting and eliminating the need for a second-round vote on Oct. 27. Brazil's currency has lost 19 percent of its value in three months on concern that if Lula or Gomes wins, the new president would increase spending to fund campaign pledges, sapping funds needed to avert the biggest debt default ever. Brazil's debt has tripled during President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's eight-year term to about 1.1 trillion reais ($354 billion).


Black Blade: Lula has already stated that he would probably just default on foreign loans. South America is toast. The dominoes will continue to fall.

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20020904-043745-2655r
Snippit:

FRANKFURT, Germany, Sept. 4 (UPI) -- One of Germany's top economists is warning the country's leading bankers that Europe, and the rest of the world, are in dire danger of following Japan into a deflationary depression -- far more serious and prolonged than a conventional recession. "The people running the world's central banks and those responsible for economic policy should take the signs much more seriously," argues Norbert Walter, chief economist for Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, in a paper made available exclusively to United Press International. Walter, sunk in gloom after returning from a research trip to Asia, is circulating the paper in a bid to influence the world's financial leaders at the autumn meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington at the end of the month. The stars are all aligned, fears the top economist of Germany's biggest bank, for a very dismal economic outlook.

Black Blade: Stating the obvious.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXYhXRSQQ3J1ZGUg
Snippit:

New York, Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil jumped after U.S. President George W. Bush told lawmakers that no action ``is not an option'' for dealing with the threat posed by Iraq.

Black Blade: It's a done deal. I see that the Europeans are unhappy with the US plans for war. Funny thing is they always seem to invite us to theirs.

http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/04/news/companies/retail_roundup/index.htm

Snippit:

Retailers have seen deteriorating sales during the last few months as the combined effects of uncertain economic news, a seasonal shift to fall merchandise, and heat waves tamed consumers, whose spending has been shoring up the economy. Some retailers are nervous heading into the crucial fall season as early reads on back-to-school sales are disappointing, prompting many chains to offer early promotions on clothing and other related back-to-school merchandise. "Back-to-school sales have not been meeting expectations, especially in the apparel and accessories merchandise classifications," the report said. "Most stores missed or appeared at the lower end of their targets."


Black Blade: The second most important retail season a disappointment. That does not look good as it usually sets the tone for holiday sales. In a word � "Grim".

Well, Rich, the whole theme of "notional value of derivatives" and "risk" is exceedingly abstruse. What would Will Roger's have said about this? You know darn well he would get to the heart of the matter.

I am no Will Roger's but, JP Morgan-Chase is up to their kiester in all sorts of contortions no one can really understand. And when that is going on, you have to know that a great deal is very rotten. All this derivative crap is not about banking in the sober sense of the word. It's about gambling. GAMBLING! (Excuse the flaming)

The idea is that no operation is beyond the pale. Anything, bar nothing, anything can be done and financed. Just "structure" it right, and the deal gets done. How? We use derivatives to spin off what we don't like, to others, who will always - to make a buck - accept the risk in return for - a buck. So no deal that can be conceived by someone under the influence of opium or cocaine, can be rejected. It's all doable. Just spin off what you don't like.

The problema is: WTSHTF, those who accepted the risks are going to be "not at home". Poof! They default. And when things just begin to get sticky, all of a sudden, no more accepters of risk. The machinery binds up.

These people at JP Morgan-Chase: they know what they are doing. They are preparing for the burial of the American Republic. Every single one of the higher ups, knows that this whole scheme is damned to Hell, that there is no way that their august bank is going to survive. They don't care and never have cared. They may be b......s, but they are not dumb b......s! There you have that book that explains it all in detail: "FIASCO". It talks about "ripping the client's face off".

Nemesis ALWAYS follows hubris. JPMC will be no exception. Sit back, relax and enjoy the fall of Babylon, 21st Century.

Now, pardon me while I go and enjoy my cigar for this evening.

Sierra

I quite agree....

(it's a little bit funny how we go about this business of figuring all things out and the linear process of making ends meet .... like deer /elk that never look up) we
should look up more .... Those who have come to this forum were seeking ..... to know ....something ....about .... something....we are all very fortunate....


I believe that the Universe that we live in is an Illusion too, in which we get to dwell and discover...and on some special days it is the medium which delivers to us bright moments coming through here......cargoes of treasure

There are references in writings that have been handed down to us over many years.... writings that speak of The Rock ...
and also referring to our state.... psalm 103: 14 For he knoweth our frame ; he remembereth that we are dust ....
In the context , this isn't a compliment to man's strength or character....

There are also some references to people having salt in there ( in the writings).....and in here inside the universe..where we sojourn.

I guess there's kind of an inherent warning in all of this about which dusty people wind up running stuff like the financial system .....because some of those dusty people out there are just plain flaky ( accidentally introducing us to their failing experimental journey /fantasy which is now proving to have a sandy bottom /foundation)

Don't rely on these people for answers and don't invest your trust in those who are now having a maalox moment with that immodium chaser behind the well dressed facade that has an exterior tint of calmness......( perhaps that is the calm before the storm).....

There is a storm on the horizon and the wind is going to blow .......and after the storm there will be many ,,,, with questions .......and the dusty people that caused the problems will have been transported to a distant shore where they may be unavailable for comment ..... and the many answers that people will be seeking will be blowing in the wind.......Reminds me of a rather new colloquilism and rationalization for WHY QUESTIONS? TO paraphrase and this may be the best answer initially that the pundits will publish .......POOPICAH HAPPENS.....

One of my kids used to blame many things that happened on the fact that it was an accident....."Well I didn't mean to have that happen" My next question is always "Well, did you willfully determine that accident not to happen?

Life wasn't exciting enough and the bankers didn't have enough games to play when we had a gold standard ....watching the economy then was like watching the paint dry .....the masses have had to work more at the expense of the quality of life ...... the end result greedy men at the top of the financial structures( corporations and banks) ... eating the first fruit ( I think we are going to find out that they may have and major portion ) that this overjuiced economy produced and they consumed all the seed capital for future expansion....hmmm....

SO I wanna know when Robinhood is going to show up .......

The internet may be just the medium through which the masses get the picture and come to feast on the security owning real money (GOLD) will give...

Do you really think the people at Morgan Chase would gamble? Why, those people don't even need to eat lunch. They are not humans like you and me. The Morgan Chase building doesn't have restrooms, because they're not needed. The staff extrude their waste once a week in little bags and throw them into the air and they disappear like..., well, like derivatives. Everybody knows that derivatives are as safe as, ... as safe as..., well, they are as safe as the British Empire, that's what.

Actually It's Not Gambling......the derivatives held by JPM have a purpose. That purpose is to suppress the price of the underlying commodity.

At $45 Billion in gold derivatives JPM IS the COMEX, therefore any action exhibited by the COMEX can only be at the wish of JPM. They wish gold to be $315 tonight...so it is. But they have a physical supply problem and from "Deep Throat" also tonight JPM received a gold swap from the Treasury to fund their gold derivatives book. This suggests that they cannot repay the swapped gold because it has already been sold into the market. The Treasury has the metal but JPM has the liability.

Bill Murphy has been suggesting that the Iraqi war offers an opportunity for Treasury to "Forgive JPM's gold debt to the Treasury"...when gold can no longer be held down. One can hear the Fed..."No taxpayer money was used". The gold derivatives will just be erased. JPM never goes to buy gold on the open market.

So there are new dimensions to the manipulation game...new "Dots" for the map.

JPM is an enterprise based entirely upon the ideology of the rig. For example, in 1996 they launched their soon to be $20 Trillion interest rate derivatives book only weeks AFTER breaking the gold price in June 1996. Without gold to threaten the dollar, they had the perfect rig set for low interest rates. It was a sure thing.

BTW the Fed Chairman holds two board seats on the Bank of International Settlements, a private corporation. Since he makes interest rate policy effecting the BIS member banks, this amounts to a blatant conflict of interest. The Master of the Universe fails to see this.

There are hundreds of billions in other commodity derivatives listed but are not identified in the OCC documentation. Those JPM derivatives do not exist to raise the price of the underlying commodities.

It isn't a gamble it's a rig.

Gold is important to me because gold is and always will be, well, Gold.

Gold is important to me because it is a continuous source of wealth and a (theoretically) uncontrollable, universal currency, ruled by no single nation.

There's a gold moon rising

Doubtless, they are doing what you say. JPM-C is, as perhpas you might say, "betting on a sure thing". (You did not say that, but, it is implied in your interesting post.)
Is the whole JPM-C rigging of the price of gold so that its price will not rise, something that will endure and then come to a successful end - by "success" I mean that JPM-C will come out unscathed, having fulfilled its objectives? In twenty years' time, will the executives of JPM-C be able to look back in satisfaction and admiration at the whole operation, begun say, in 1995?
No? Then they were gambling and lost.
All human action involves some degree of risk. Anything we attempt can fail. But as Antal Fekete points out, there is a big difference between natural, inherent risks - such as weather, for farmers - and man-made risks. Suppressing the price of gold incurs in man-made risks and must be classed as a form of gambling. In fact, it is bound to fail.
The bigwigs are smart. They know they are going to fail. Yet from a motive of momentary gain, they are selling their Bank and all of us, down the river. There may be also, a motive based on some other grounds, such as a vision of ulterior power on a scale never before known to man.
If JPM-C is not gambling, then they must know they are going to come out ahead. I shudder to think of that possibility. Therefore, I say, they are gambling, and they are going to lose mightily.

..........

Further thoughts on derivatives, for your scrutiny:

There are some $100 Trillion out there, if I am not mistaken?

Now, as long as nothing much happens, no one is out any important money. The losers take their lumps, and that's that. A billion here, a billion there - nothing to speak of.

However, when something big comes along, losses become gigantic - never mind whether the $100 Trillion is "nominal", still, the losses are going to be astronomical, for SOMEONE.
If JPM-C is protected in all its risks, as those wise guys are thinking they are, then let's suppose that they are saved all those gigantic losses, and somebody else absorbs them. However, those gigantic losses are going to take down a great many mighty players, and that will take down the banks that thought they were "protected" by their hedges.

It's a kind of Russian Roulette: no one gets hurt until there is a bullet in the firing chamber of the 357 Magnum revolver. Then, the system goes down, and JPM-C along with it.

All this, by someone who knows zilch about the technique of derivatives.

Sierra

Comatose, you have posted some pearls of wisdom this evening. "Dusty people", indeed! Again, I do think we are living in "Babylon 2".

Black Blade: There is life after default, for Brazil. It makes sense: a debtor defaults when he sees he has no further prospect of more credits. I used to sell some stuff wholesale and there was always the problem of collecting from a debtor business. The management would blackmail, and insist on more merchandise before they made any payment. No easy way out of that.

So Brazil defaults, so what (for them)? The hens will go on laying eggs.

Saludos

Sierra

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DI05Ak01.htmlSnip:
"The Saudi royal family is weathering the biggest challenge to its rule since it founded the kingdom about 70 years ago. But the task is harder without a definite roadmap to guide it through the post-September 11 pressure aimed at diluting the influence of the puritan Wahhabism brand of Islam in daily life...All this indicates that the kingdom is being pulled in two directions. There is an uneasy calm in the relationship between hardliners, Defense Minister Sultan and Interior Minister Nayef, and the moderate de facto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah, that could explode when the question arises of succession of the current ailing King Fahd."

Waverider: Interesting article on Wahhabism,its history and current influence in Saudi politics.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html?date=2002%3A09%3A02%3A20%3A00%3A00
Spartacus: There was an interesting post on Gold-eagle earlier this week about the Fed�s gold swap game. What do you think? Is "amysnyder" right?


The Fed's Gold Swap Game
(amysnyder) Sep 02, 22:31

>> The Fed's Gold Swap Game <<

For the past 31 years, the FED has been raising the stakes continously in the BIGGEST POKER GAME in history to keep the rest of the players from calling its hand.

The FED has used every political and economic trick in the book to keep the other players at the table and guessing.

TIME is running out on the FED... some of the players a few years back got sick of playing the FED's game under the FED's constantally changing [IMF] rulebook and began creating their own house tables (i.e. EU, islamic gold dinar, and others which remain unanounced to date)


OK, so what are GOLD SWAPS and why are they used.....

Gold is at $316.60 at the open in London and rising. That is a $3.30 an ounce increase. The reason appears to be more talk from Dubya and Colin Powell about the "need" for an attack on Iraq. Tony Blair agrees and will go to Camp David this weekend for talks about Brit cooperation. The war is a lock! That is war at this point is inevitable and there's no turning back. Watch for gold and petroleum to rise from here!

- Black Blade

Gold is important to me because:-For some inexplicable reason, it's the ONLY thing I'm able to SAVE....Currency, by it's nature, flows through my hands like water....otoh I still have the first Oz of GOLD I acquired and dire straits would need to befall me to prize out even a Half Sovereign.

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_8.html

Snippit:

The United States continues its military buildup in and around the Persian Gulf with analysts estimating up to 100,000 troops within striking distance of Iraq. U.S. military sources and analysts said Washington has sent tens of thousands of soldiers and military personnel to Gulf Arab states, Central and South Asia and the Levant. They said the force includes at least 1,000 military planners who have prepared for a rapid airlift of forces in case Washington decides on a war against Iraq. Analysts said the total number of U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf and surrounding regions now number around 100,000. They said this could enable a U.S. attack on Iraq within weeks of a decision by President George Bush. The Washington-based Center for Defense Information said the U.S. troop deployment effort has been muted and taken in cooperation with host countries. The center said in a report that the cooperation is meant to keep the airlift out of the public eye.


Black Blade: Looks like the build up is well underway. Just over the wire on CNNfn is that US military sources are saying: "this is just normal troop rotation". Yeah, right.

Meanwhile, Cap'n Tony is on his way to Camp David to talk with Dubya. Like I said, the war is a lock.

The last bond-holders are dancing with their last stretch of rising prices (declining interest rates). Those trillions of debtpaper are appreciating, as compensation for many other loses. When IRs touch zero %...it's over.
Than, the big flight from US$ will start for good. Flight into another currency, THE EURO. Very little of those US$-bond trillions will shift into stocks. It didn't happen in Japan and wan't happen into US-stocks. US$ cash will depreciate in exchange rate AND purchasing power.
Japan (government and banks) refuses to re-inflate and prefers to do nothing whilst declining japanese stocks push those giant banks into the abbys. Next target for Nikkei is around 6.000. Trillions of paper (and digits) will soon, have no place to run. No alternative. Time out for the financial """ cartels """ !

When the US's economy and its currency (US$) is on the brink of collapsing...the whole world breaks down and will, finally, manifest withdrawel effects from its past dollar-addiction !

The speed and firmness, at wich IRs + Stock Market + US$ are declining all together in lockstep, is evidence for high probable total collapse. Calling off the ME attack in extremis is the only possible, positive, surprise.
What are the odds for having this happening ?

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=GCV02%2CFVXY%2CTNXY%2CTYXY.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=7&go.y=9The striking thing to come out of a recent visit to NYC was how similar the face Dollar value of goods and services were there in comparason to here in OZ.
From Bigmacs to Budweiser, Smokes, Dining out, Wages...right across the board, prices were VERY similar.
Sooo...An American visiting Oz can effectively expect to part with a QUARTER the cost his Aussie counterpart visiting the US will.
Exorbidant privilige?
Charts show Treasury Yields as we approach the reckoning - all else being equal Gold will move lower...it has to if a Rate cut is pending methinks.

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=4914.topic

Snippit:

Remember The Case of the missing Barrels? That was a controversy of a few years back when critics blamed an apparent gap in the International Energy Agency's supply data as a contributor to soft oil prices. Now we seem to have The Case of the Phantom Surplus. As natural gas markets have softened in recent weeks, a major contributor to the slackening market has been a year-on-year gas storage surplus.

But a major contributor to natural gas price uncertainty this spring has been the switchover of weekly gas storage data from the American Gas Association to the US department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. The handoff occurred May 9, and there was no lapse in reporting data. What came into question � interestingly, by Simmons & Co. International, a major proponent of the Missing Barrels theory, as well as other critics � is the change in the methodology and sampling of companies surveyed in calculating the storage data. The concern has been that these changes could create potentially false indicators of the relative health of the US gas market.

EIA in fact fiddled with its own storage numbers when it released its storage report for the week ended June 14. The agency made multiple revisions throughout its data series each week going back to Nov. 2, 2001 (the start of the heating season). This resulted in a cumulative increase of 41 bcf in the prior week's supply number. "Now that the DOE is tracking the weekly storage data, we must call into question both the accuracy of the newly reported data and also the usefulness of the longer term historical baselines provided by the DOE," said Marshall Adkins, analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc., St. Petersburg, Fla. "We believe the net impact of the poor data quality has created the impression of a looser, or more oversupplied, gas market than actually exists."

Noting that the DOE data did not match the historical weekly AGA numbers, Adkins said that DOE fabricated a new set of historical weekly injection data in a bid to have its monthly data dovetail with weekly data similar to AGA's. But Adkins claims that DOE botched the job. All of this gives the impression, critics claim, that there is more gas available for markets than actually exists. Adkins estimates that "phantom surplus" at 1 bcfd. And he expects more revisions in the future.


Black Blade: It looks like another scandal in the making. The EIA has been asking the public and the industry for recommendations on data collection and comments. It appears that even they are aware of flaws in their methodology and data collection. If the supply runs short in the dead of winter that would be a disaster and the rising cost of energy would devastate the US economy as it struggles with a deepening recession/depression. With the threat of war in the ME the NG storage data questions become even more critical.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian market finished off negative, except Japan in a case of "Monkey See - Monkey Do" following Wall Street's lead. European markets are starting off negative while US market index futures and the US dollar trend lower. Meanwhile, Gold is bouncing along around $316 to $317 an ounce.

- Black Blade

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The USD is falling, precious metals and petroleum are rising, and market futures are negative. Meanwhile the Iraqi war is locked in as Cap'n Tony is popping in for afternoon tea and crumpets with Dubya this weekend. Should be quite "entertaining" when the markets open on Wall Street.

- Black Blade

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/sinclair/090302.htmSnippit:

"...It is not the gold derivative position that worries the major investment banks that are the parents of the subsidiaries which are the exposed gold dealers. It is not the $46 billion to $60 billion in gold derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase that worries them. It is the effect of an explosion in the gold derivatives on the balance of the US Dollar 23.7 Trillion in other derivatives on the books of JP Morgan that worries JP Morgan/Chase, IMO.

This is why JP Morgan/Chase and their other gold dealer cartel members are stopping gold at $312.50 to $314.80 today (as this is written) with the help, IMO, of central banks.

Such a manipulation to prevent the gold market from rising above $354 will fail because history tells us that no manipulation ever attempted has stopped a primary, fundamentally-driven bull or bear market in anything.

The two greatest traders that ever lived, (both expired), Bertram J. Seligman and Jesse Livermore taught that a successful manipulation must always be in the direction that the market wants to take -- fundamentally and technically. Any other manipulation not only fails, a manipulation against the fundamental and technical desire of a market will also create a coiled market that goes further in the direction of its intention than it would have gone in the first place. Therefore, the result of the attempt by the gold cartel to hold the market down will be to propel it higher than it would have gone earlier...."

------------------------------------------------------
GB: Balancing on a knife-edge...

You are right on. The best savings program for my daughter and my nephews (and myself) is metals. Like my brother says, "It may not have gone up, but it is still there." The most difficult thing (for me) will be to establish a disciplined selling program. You struck a chord with me - thanks.

MOVERMEG

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/09/04/september11/main520830.shtml
---(CBS) CBS News has learned that barely five hours after American Airlines Flight 77 plowed into the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld was telling his aides to come up with plans for striking Iraq � even though there was no evidence linking Saddam Hussein to the attacks---

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is up on war talk and weak US dollar. The US market index futures are crashing through the floor boards and petroleum is moving higher too.

US unemployment first time claims (8/31) are at 403,000 - above recession levels. Productivity numbers edge higher but no one is spending to buy inventory. But as usual last weeks unemployment numbers are revised higher. The infomercial (aka CNBC is trying to paint lipstick on this pig). Looks to be very "entertaining" at the open today!

- Black Blade

Gold and silver prices are moving higher at the open in NY while Gold stocks are trading higher in the pre-market. Looks like a volatile session ahead. The investment houses are sure to be out soon to buy index futures to minimize the damage and then to work the stock market indices toward a recovery later. It could be a difficult job, but then it could also sap their resources. Now if the little investor bails and mutual funds are forced to liquidate at the end of the session today it could get very ugly - should be fun!

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020905/economy_jobless_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits dipped in the latest week, but remained above the key 400,000 level for a second straight time, the government said on Thursday, suggesting the economic recovery is having trouble generating jobs. The Labor Department said claims dropped by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 403,000 in the week ended Aug. 31, the first decline since the first week of August. But the Aug. 24 week's total was revised upward, to 411,000 from an initially reported 403,000.


Black Blade: Yep, the spin is that the unemployment first time filings fell 8,000 � but WHOA!!! � The prior week's data was revised upward by 8,000! It is no surprise because each prior week is revised upward but that number is "conveniently" ignored. The infomercial channel (aka CNBC) "conveniently" forgot to mention this little detail at the release this morning. Market index futures are slowly � very slowing easing a bit off the lows. Gee, I wonder who could be buying the market right now? Especially with such "grim" data coming. Hmmm�

BTW, I see the cheerleading infomercial host is soft balling questions to the touts, errr I mean "guests". I noticed one CEO after giving his canned sales pitch, errr, I mean responses at the end of his interview appropriately say: "thanks for your help". Ever notice that no one ever shows a chart of "guests" previous stock picks? Also, ever notice that "guests" never issue a "sell" recommendation? Yet the economy is so wonderful as hundreds of thousands of nonessential workers are filing unemployment claims every week. Hmmm� "interesting"

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

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my guess is that there will be NO war at this time. before "w" et al can organise support, a stunning $/bond destroying "revelation" (g says perception is everyting) will appear which will speedily spell the end of the us economic/financial system. america will recoil in shame at her own corruption and a great period of introspection will begin.

gold/euro/oil/crb will blast off as the us hyperinflation maifests (bonds toast, equities so so).

just a guess

$$$$335.40$$$$

Thankyou Sir Gandalf for the generous welcome, and the tip. $329.80 was taken. If I must provide a new explanation, then here it is.

Apart from a being a good insurance policy and investment, I believe that gold in the right hands will aid in the reversal of our present course of financial turmoil. Things will no doubt be worse before they get better, but that's history for you.

If it is true, that great wealth will only magnify an individual's evil character and intent, then the opposite is also true. So I say, let the Cabal continue to dump their gold until their ammunition magazines are empty, then We will take our rightful place. --Roger--

http://globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/business/RTGAM/20020905/wgol0905/Business/businessBN/breakingnews-businessSnip:
"Jittery investors piled into the gold market on Thursday as Washington lined up a possible military strike against Iraq and the September 11 anniversary loomed. Fears of a repeat attack on the U.S. mainland were a major factor in gold's eventual move to a 2-1/2 year high of $330.30 last June. That rally was also helped by plunging stock markets, a fragile dollar, Israeli-Palestinian violence and moves by leading gold miners to cut their forward sales of the metal to take advantage of rising spot prices."

Waverider: Interesting little article to find in the Globe and Mail.

UPDATE #5 (as of Thursday 0900 Denver time 9/5/02)
===
FYI ------HIGH, Low and Settlement Price of GC2Z on:
9/3/02 $315.9 $314.1 $315.0s
9/4/02 $317.1 $313.8 $316.5s Change + $1.5
===

$$$$ 398.6 $$$$ Believer (09/04/02; 18:22:46MT - msg#: 84358)

$$$$ 375.0 $$$$ Henri (09/04/02; 10:58:18MT - msg#: 84326)

$$$$ 362.3 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (09/04/02; 05:21:24MT - msg#: 84304)

$$$$ 354.4 $$$$ perform (09/04/02; 07:34:49MT - msg#: 84313)

$$$$ 353.4 $$$$ darkhorse (09/03/02; 20:56:04MT - msg#: 84280)

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Socrates964 (09/04/02; 16:11:50MT - msg#: 84344)

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (09/04/02; 21:38:27MT - msg#: 84381)

$$$$ 342.5 $$$$ gvc (09/03/02; 17:08:12MT - msg#: 84255)

$$$$ 341.7 $$$$ old gold (09/04/02; 11:40:02MT - msg#: 84330)

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (09/03/02; 22:36:21MT - msg#: 84289)

$$$$ 335.4 $$$$ Roger The Shrubber (09/05/02; 08:18:47MT - msg#: 84404)

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ Speedy (09/04/02; 19:15:01MT - msg#: 84366)

$$$$ 333.4 $$$$ Slowman (09/04/02; 20:10:11MT - msg#: 84370)

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (09/04/02; 19:11:32MT - msg#: 84365)

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ misetich (09/04/02; 05:28:30MT - msg#: 84307)
$$$$ 331.2 $$$$ Pippin (09/04/02; 12:50:09MT - msg#: 84335)

$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/04/02; 11:36:15MT - msg#: 84329)

$$$$ 329.3 $$$$ mikal (09/04/02; 17:08:29MT - msg#: 84349)
$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ The Hoople (09/04/02; 12:04:30MT - msg#: 84332)

$$$$ 328.5 $$$$ steady (09/03/02; 20:14:41MT - msg#: 84272)

$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/04/02; 11:15:13MT - msg#: 84327)

$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Trapper (09/03/02; 20:12:26MT - msg#: 84271)

$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ luckypierre (09/03/02; 15:20:51MT - msg#: 84244)

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (09/03/02; 18:33:51MT - msg#: 84261)

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ Galerider (09/03/02; 20:53:27MT - msg#: 84279)

$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ The CoinGuy (09/04/02; 13:00:07MT - msg#: 84338)

$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Rock (09/04/02; 12:19:18MT - msg#: 84334)

$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (09/04/02; 05:02:31MT - msg#: 84302)

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Boxman (9/4/02; 04:27:17MT - msg#: 84301)

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ a nation of one (09/03/02; 13:55:53MT - msg#: 84229)

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Tommy P (09/03/02; 14:33:23MT - msg#: 84233)

$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (09/04/02; 21:59:49MT - msg#: 84382)

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ balzac (09/04/02; 17:22:15MT - msg#: 84353)

$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ The Knife (09/04/02; 16:30:43MT - msg#: 84345)
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (09/03/02; 12:29:20MT - msg#: 84221)

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (09/03/02; 13:18:00MT - msg#: 84226)

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (09/03/02; 15:06:26MT - msg#: 84240)

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - msg#: 84257)
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ slingshot (09/03/02; 16:57:17MT - msg#: 84254)

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ davefinger (09/03/02; 14:52:14MT - msg#: 84235)
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ koala bear (9/4/02; 04:08:54MT - msg#: 84299)

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ Bulldog (09/03/02; 21:53:40MT - msg#: 84288)

$$$$ 318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Artie Farkle (09/04/02; 20:02:53MT - msg#: 84369)

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ Tevye (09/04/02; 08:02:40MT - msg#: 84316)

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (09/04/02; 07:34:44MT - msg#: 84312)

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Frosty (09/03/02; 18:59:09MT - msg#: 84265)

$$$$ 313.3 $$$$ Woodie (09/03/02; 23:41:11MT - msg#: 84291)

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ SilverHoard (09/04/02; 17:01:10MT - msg#: 84347)

$$$$ 311.4 $$$$ De Ronin (09/04/02; 12:16:42MT - msg#: 84333)

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ Noble1 (09/04/02; 20:25:58MT - msg#: 84371)

$$$$ 295.5 $$$$ Topaz (9/5/02; 01:41:33MT - msg#: 84389)

===
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
===
OVER 50 ENTRIES at this time and many more are planning their PROGNOSTICATIONS !
While the POG just keeps moving about and edging upward toward THE MOON !
<;-)

Marie and Jill tell me that a number of clients have called to say that they miss my morning observations on the gold market. I do not plan to do these on a regular basis anymore (particularly in light of the fine job Jon Warner has done in getting out the real gold news), but the current trends -- up, down, far and wide -- inspired the attempt at clarity published below. I hope you gain from it.

Good luck to all our contestants. I am amazed at the level of participation. It is truly gratifying for us to see the number of readers coming forward to let us know we in fact do have an audience. I want to again thank our fine group of regular posters who make this such an interesting place for new, regular and veteran gold owners to visit.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY USAGOLD!!

- - - - - - -

"There are still a lot of bad things going on in the world. There is little reason why gold should be materially weaker." Anonymous New York gold trader

- - - - - - -

Gold tracked higher this morning with bullion bank and hedge fund buying the chief feature, according to London traders. Translated, what the London traders are trying to tell us by code is that the bullion banks, hedged mining companies, and strung out hedge funds are looking at a whole host of factors pushing behind the gold price and opting to cover now rather than later. As they say in the trading business "Better to be a day early than a day late. Better yet, let's get the jump on our competitors and come in three days early when they're not looking." And that;s what defines today's action. We are seeing more and more of this first man to the door routine as we go along and that in itself has become a market factor to be reckoned with. At one point this morning, gold traded above the $320 level before the usual suspects showed up to knock it off its pedestal.

So what are the factors pushing hard at the gold price and worrying the gold bears? Let's start with Arab buying. It's difficult to leave your money in a New York money center bank when the lawyers are pounding on the doors with legal suit in hand. Then you've got the prospect of war in the Middle East and what that might do to the oil price. No matter how many times the Saudi's tell the world they will step up production to stem a supply crisis, it is difficult for rational investors to blot out visions of sunken ships clogging up the Straits of Hormuz, oil field fires, pipelines blown to smithereens, not to speak of on-going terrorist activities even if the West wins the war. Add to that the general tanking of world stock markets, transnational currency erosion, contagion symptoms (high unemployment, bankruptcies, price inflation, and so on) in the first world economies, and one begins to realize that there is plenty of reason to order, take delivery on and store plenty of yellow nearby. (If the investment world thinks the Japanese, Arab and Indian buyers are having an effect on this gold market wait until their American counterparts show-up.) So we explain the stubborn upside price action despite the best efforts of the anti-gold crowd wherever and whoever they may be.

That having been said. . . . .

Gold has been a steady pull to the upside since the early August lows -- moving quietly, stealthily while much of the investment world was taking advantage of summer's end. Now the traders and investors are back and things are happening. Yesterday's upside surprised most of the gold world. Today's movement is confirmation something is going on -- a groundswell if you will. Peter Hillyard at ANZ Investment Bank summed up the technical aspect as follows: "$318/19 is going to be a fairly big obstacle to a big rally, but once it's through that it could power through to the $320's." So, as the forces of good and evil move toward confrontation at the $318 level (as this is written), so on a more serious plane the United States and Iraq move toward a confrontation of their own. Those of us who remember the sequencing of events prior to the first Gulf War can't help but clinch a little at the arrival of Tony Blair this week for a meeting with GB2. We remember it was a visit between Margaret Thatcher and GB1 in Aspen that pre-dated by a few weeks launching the first Gulf War.

Maybe that's what has this gold market on the move on near-term basis, but it is the other things mentioned that have laid the foundation. I think its about time we started to refer to this as mentioned in our newsletter this month as the first bull market for gold in the 21st century.

I accumulate gold since its not somebody elses' lies. Lies is of course slang for liabilities.

Actually, to quote Trurl from the book *The Cyberiad* by Stanislaw Lem, "I love my gold, D*mmit"

please tell me more on your speculation. That is very interesting, particularly about bonds. Why no war ?

Thank you for your reflections!I always enjoy it to follow your thoughts.

"The rumor that CBs should be prepared to
accept fiat (settlement) for their lost (?) goldreserves is more of the same fiat-advocacy !!!"

I also noticed the London connection...

What I'm starting to realise is that with the coming super-re-valuation of Gold,my portfolio consists probably of too much large pieces.I mean if you go to a bank with your 1ounce coin to free some cash for your living,and they give you 20'000 "Fr�nkli"-it could bring you into a) safety problems b)bureaucratic reporting requirements c)general suspicion d) tax stuff etc.

Nevermind that with a kilo bar...when I bought my first Gold about 4 years ago I bought as large (mostly bars) as possible because of the cost.But now I'm changing on this.

So I started with buying 1/10oz coins (they're so cute) and the pre33 stuff which comes in reasonable sizes.Maybe I will keep the large pieces for a lifetime,only exchanging the small stuff.But then,I'm not sure if I even could sell a coin,I just guess it will be necessary sometime...

I think Zbig has an I.Q. about 60% higher than GWB.

Said some intelligent words. In essence, (not in his own words):

Iraq is defying the UN; but, the USA cannot behave like Iraq and make war on Iraq in defiance of UN (world opinion). (My opinion: to do so would make the U.S. a "rogue state", as independent states are now called. It's OK to be a "rogue state", IMO, but don't expect to occupy the place of leadership in that case.)

If the US does so - and it can, as Congress and the US public will back the President if he decides on war with Iraq - then the US will be disrupting the whole world order as presently established. Zbig was EMPHATIC on the absolute necessity of obtaining international consent and approval before initiating any hostilities. Not to do so would bring on disastrous international consequences!

My opinion on the above:

Leadership means, leading OTHERS. Leadership is not a "go it alone" attitude, nor a macho attitude.

US leadership - which it wants and needs to retain - requires CONVINCING other States that it is in their interest to have Saddam Hussein ejected from power and Iraq subjugated. That would be true leadership. Not a "Lone Ranger" approach which GWB seems to like.

Zbig stated that there is NO EVIDENCE that makes a war necessary. If the USSR and China were kept well dissuaded from aggression for decades, certainly Iraq can be kept under control and there will be nothing to fear from any Iraqi aggression.

Zbig is a BRAIN, no doubt about it, and speaks wisely.

Sierra

They are Central Bank Tools......designed to allow numerous banks to "Trade" their paper back and forth for the temporary use of paper gold [The "Swapped" gold].

The received swap is then sold in to the paper gold market [COMEX] for the purpose of suppressing pog. Various "Carry trades" can develop during a prolonged downward gold price spiral.

IMF rules allow BOTH Central Banks to claim they EACH still own the swapped gold. This effectively hides the transaction in the same manner that Mahonia's "Loans" hid Enron's debt.

It is important to appreciate that using similar stealth, the Central Banks also are hiding massive losses where they have loaned or swapped somewhere around 12,000 to 16,000 tonnes of their gold. It all has been sold into the market or is being carried as underwater derivatives by bullion banks and dealers. These dealers actually hold the liability since the physical metal [In most cases] resides in the original vaults.

The trip-up happens when the price of gold rises as it is. The derivatives go so far underwater that ratings agencies look to downgrade debt and then the Central Bank's risk management committees look to pull the plugs on the derivatives.

Pay attention to ratings agencies actions against bullion banks with gold derivatives.

BTW Virgil Mattingly, Alan Greenspan's Chief Counsel, revealed in the Feb 1995 FOMC minutes that the US had swapped gold. This transcribed admission [Which participants initialed as approved], in which he later claimed amnesia or being misquoted in an August 2001 press release, confirmed that the United States Government officially manipulates the price of what lawfully [CFTC ACT 1974] is a freely traded commodity.

There are several other references to gold swaps and "swap puts" in the FOMC approved transcripts [See "Swapping Lies" at http/www.goldensextant.com].

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020905/airlines_usairways_judge_1.htmlDefinitely a sign of a healthy or improving economy...NOT...

Got Gold?

I have a question for the forum.

How would investors view an OPEC like cartel in which the gold mining companies hold back say 10% of their production annually as an asset (better than cash) on their books?

1) Gold still mined and above ground therefore no price change.

2) Or decreased physical supply much like the Washington Agreement and then a large spike in gold price.

3) Or something else. ( any thoughts?)

I believe choice #2 is a good one. Seems to me there is resistance to POG passing thru 330-350 range. An announcement by the mining companies that they will begin to withold physical gold from the market would be explosive for the POG. More than enough to pass thru any road blocks particularly in the current state of the world's economies. Some miners may say that they don't have the operating capital to hold back 10%, but the resultant price spike would make up the 10% in revenue and some to boot! Goldcorp (GG) is already doing this now. I'm sure some of the non-hedging miners have already considered the above. Anybody have knowledge of the antitrust laws and how they might affect an agreement between the miners to hold back production? Seems to me that POG needs a spike to pass thru the road block so the "sellers" will throw in the towel. This may be a solution.

Gold is probably my best insurance "policy." Among other things:
1. It's not a paper document riddled with if's, and's, but's maybe's and legal terms. Nothing to interpret or worry about with gold.
2.Insurance companies may not pay up when disaster strikes. Or they may pay a little or a lot only after a long, stressful battle. Don't have to worry about that with gold.
3. Gold will never go out of busness, which is what some of my insurance companies may do.
4. Once you have i t, you don't have to pay something extra for it every few years, which seems standard for auto, house, flood and fire insurance.
5. And it always draws ooohs and aaahs from family members when it is displayed. Can't say that for my other policies.

Zbig may have a big IQ but no sense. Lets just do nothing and wait for the next 9/11 while we are trying to convince the Euros and the UN, who are not in danger of an attack, that we have the evidence that Iraq is fueling terrorism and developing Nukes and other nasty weapons. Maybe the New World order isn't something we should even be involved with. Let some other sucker be the leader for a change and pay the world's debts and we can set back and watch the show. Gee, there must be some reason that the peoples of the world are beating down our borders trying to get in.
White Hills

More than 100 MPs from all Arab states except Kuwait and Saudi Arabia capped a meeting in Baghdad Wednesday by opposing the threat of U.S. military action against Iraq and calling for lifting U.N. sanctions imposed on Iraq for its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

"The union rejects and strongly condemns American threats and preparations to wage a war against Iraq," said a communique issued after a two-day meeting called by the Arab Parliamentary Union.

President Saddam Hussein reportedly addressed the Arab Parliamentary Union saying, "Your brothers in Iraq wish that God would spare them evil and avoid fighting,... If God chooses that we have to fight, we won't disappoint you,... We will fight them in a way that will please you and annoy (the) enemies."

He did not elaborate.
***

Amen to that White Hills. Big IQ's with no wisdom to go with it spells TROUBLE. Seems like the kind of people who cooked up some of this financial mess we're in. You know, the one's who call gold a barbarous relic.

I thank God we have a leader in GW that knows his job is way too big for any man. He looks to a higher authority for wisdom and has made no secret of this. He also seeks the wisdom and counsel of other wise leaders around him. Like his father and his cabinet and I'm sure many other great men and women of integrity.

Far from perfect but I can think of some alternatives that are just plain scary right now.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/020905/137/1uu1q.htmlWASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. special operations troops
guarding Afghan President Hamid Karzai shot dead at least one
attacker who apparently tried to assassinate Karzai in Kandahar
on Thursday, U.S. defense officials said.

The U.S. Central Command said in a statement from its
headquarters in Tampa, Florida, that one U.S. soldier was
slightly injured in the attack and was being treated in
Afghanistan following the failed attempt.

Afghan officials said Karzai survived the assassination attempt but that one U.S.
Army Special Forces soldier and the governor of the Kandahar, Gul Agha Sherzai,
were wounded.

President George W. Bush welcomed word that Karzai, a close ally in the U.S. war on
terrorism, was unhurt. "The president was informed and expressed his relief that
President Karzai was unhurt," said White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan.

The incident followed an explosion earlier in the day in the capital Kabul that killed at least 15 people.

The United States, which overthrew Afghanistan's former Taliban rulers after accusing it of harboring the militant al Qaeda movement
behind the Sept. 11 attacks, has strongly backed Karzai as the new leader.

Bush has called for a massive international effort to rebuild the country, devastated after decades of fighting, but has been reluctant
to expand the international peacekeeping force there as urged by Karzai.

The United States has about 8,000 troops in Afghanistan, pursuing operations to track down Taliban and al Qaeda fighters. It does not
contribute to the peacekeeping force.

A small, elite U.S. military force was assigned to guard Karzai in late July after reports that al Qaeda and Taliban remnants might
attempt to assassinate government leaders.

Fifteen U.S soldiers were assigned at that time to provide around-the-clock security at the presidential palace alongside Karzai's
existing bodyguards from the Northern Alliance, the most powerful faction in his coalition government.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said when the move was made that the security job for American soldiers could last several
months.

Thursday's attempt came ahead of a planned transfer of that protection from the U.S. military to special guards supplied by the U.S.
State Department.

Kramrich: It looks like things might be getting out of control in Afghanistan. Bombings, attempted assasinations, and a call to jihad by an anti US general in Afghanistan.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020905/economy_fed_mcteer_2.htmlTo paraphrase, if you have soaring productivity, who needs jobs. Too bad the prodictivity increase is a myth resulting from the way increases in computer performance are accounted for in the calculation.

Got Gold?

Gold is moving higher again in after hours - bouncing on $320 an ounce. A lot of dismal economic news and strange occurances in global news. The Karzai assasination attempt and the "intruder alert" on a US military bio and chemical warfare storage facility. Air strikes in Iraq's southern "no-fly" zone, etc. Most is covered in today's "Daily Gold Market Report".

Petroleum prices are also moving higher in a replay of events seen in the 1980's and 1990's. History does repeat and during those times gold and oil spiked much higher. Looks like a repeat to me.

- Black Blade

Excellent afternoon Report!

I completely concur with your last sentence. I usually make my purchases in August. In times past, there was a seasonal slowdown late summers, and I'm used to getting a good buy. But when I made my purchases this year, most dealers were very busy. One comment from a good friend, "I haven't seen activity like this since Y2K, and were in August".

Deer Season(Bow) 10 days and counting...Will be in Colorado this fall to "as you say" slay an elk myself. Got skunked last year...

The CoinGuy

The PM action is picking up from what everyone I know tells me. The threat of war and the deterioration in the global economy has put a fire under physical bullion sales. Meanwhile, I will call a couple of people I know later on and try to find out about the "intruder alert" in Utah. They are military so they may not be allowed to discuss it. But it does show how skittish people are.

I am just about to go out in a couple of minutes to wait for a nice bull to bed down this afternoon, however, since it's close by I will take a side trip to the gym first. I've seen a lot of elk, but they are on private land. Lots of white tail and muleys too. I hope to stock up on mammal flesh as last year's supply is running a bit low.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

off to the gym!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlExcellent! Added here so it won't be missed!

All central banks (CB) with goldrserves are actors in the Gold cartel. All CBs are constantly intervening as to manage their currency's exchange rate and its repercussions on the state's economy. So, intervention is a very normal activity and many cartels, in the broader sense of the word, are business as usual. That's why "we, Gold-Advocates", call, Gold's status *UNFREE* ! The De Beers diamond-cartel was tolerated as are many other, less known (outspoken), cartels or monopolies. The most popular (now infamous) cartel is OPEC.

This as an introduction to some reflection on your question.

The Gold industry can impossibly act against the CB's Gold cartel. Even if they wanted to. Official goldreserves (30.000 tonnes) is the largest amount of Gold under a common umbrella. The pro-fiatists ! The gold industry can only (free to) occupy itself with Gold (its product) as the *commodity* and NOT as the monetary asset. The gold industry (miners) cannot start a global campaign (and actions) against fiat and promote Gold as an alternative for paper-money. Just imagine any kind of commercial that is bluntly saying that all fiat isn't but confetti and that we all should rush for physical Gold in possession !!!

Sales of official reserve-gold are always done in a very specific framework. It is never offered as an alternative for fiat (confetti) under the form of bullion bars for investment. This as to not provoke any massive movement of wild Gold hoarding fever. BTW, Sir Knall gold...don't worry about your kilograms, especially when you diversified with a mixture of coins, as you mentioned.

The past and present Gold-wars are nothing more than periodic struggles between the different CBs, within the Gold cartel . Cfr. OPEC's disputes ! As for oil and gold-reserves, the general public will never know what the different agendas of the different cartel members are. So we have to keep speculating on this part of the drama.
Most of the time, nothing seems to be what it is. And how can we possibly trust any statistics on oil from Russia or the M.E. The same is true for the different gold-reserves and the respective CB owners their intentions with that Gold.

But...

As long as "physical" Gold is freely available to take into ones possession, all over the world...there is a certain risk that a disruptive goldrush might castrate the Gold cartel. The goldminers are too vulnarable to get such a goldrush organised. Us, western lilliputan Gold hoarders can easely be influenced in our perceptions and Gold deeds with the overpowering impact of POG (manipulation). That is different for sophisticated Gold Giants. Cfr. currency pirates � la Soros and others. But even they have to comply with the financial fraternity's rules and customs.

Iraq wanted a 21$ POO in 1990. You know what happened. Same goes for anyone who should dare to challenge the almighty Gold cartel, openly and publicly. That's why Buffet and tutti quanti (exclusively americans), populized (relative) harmless silver and NOT Gold ! This imvho of course.

Sir Kramrich, Gold has such a long history of utmost importance that it is unthinkable that any bucaneer can enter this Golden ship with much poehaa. Gold must ba boarded with sub waterline methods. Read stealth and subtle accumulation .

Allow me to repeat that it is the extreme low pricing of the valuable Gold that is indirectly evidence for its present importance. How paradoxal this might sound.

TG once said that one should not look at things from outside > inside but the other way around ! Believe me Sir, it took me also quite a lot of study time to aqcuire some understanding on this (rather simple) Gold matter.

When one studies the caracter of any "cartel", it becomes much easier to gain some more understanding on what is happening to Gold and where it will most probably end.
OPEC is the best case to study and find similarities with the Gold cartel. And in my vieuw, any cartel is a priori a conspiray, but not necessarely an evil one.

Once the coming dollar-flight can't be stopped anymore...the cartel will shift into another policy and abandon the past targets. But as long as those 30.000 tonnes remain in the vaults of central banks (any CB)...there will be a Gold cartel. Fiat will always be re-invented and Gold will always be there as a precious commodity and as "the" only monetary asset.

And a last note on those miners. If major miners are in the know of the very high probability of a much higher POG in a not too distant future...why should he bother not to exhaust his high grade ore, during the transition period ?

And ad repititum, the present 2.500 tonnes of yearly new mined Gold, declines every year in importance against the growing stash of aboveground refined. And as Cavan Man illustrated, 2500 tonnes is most probably a high in the historical increase of mined Gold ! All the best to you Sir Kramlich.

That COULD be
just one REALLY GOOD WEEK! Right?

Think BIG in a little time.

$$$$ 349.2 $$$$

when gold pops thru the $325/330 peaks of last July and Sept/Oct 1999 it will reach the 350 range quickly

There is a particular feeling I get in my stomach the exact moment a plane loses touch with mother earth. It lasts but hundredth of a second and then is gone, but it always happens every time I fly. It's not fear, nor anxiety, but best described as excitement, that an adventure has just begun. Today, I turned the computer on after having been away for the long weekend, and when I seen the price of gold, I got that feeling.

@ Belgian, glad your "home" and writing once again.

@ All, Thanks for the reading material, some very good posts of late.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20020830/default.htmat Jackson Hole.
Excuses, excuses, excuses! No answers!

Detected inside the perimeter of an area......designated as the highest possible security...so where IS the guy?

It was broad daylight. There is nothing but scrub grass around the bunkers. The locale was chosen, among other things, for its ABSENSE of cover.

My, my, my! Maybe Al Qaeda has discovered a new cloaking suit. That guy COULD have gotten away with numerous canisters of very bad nerve gas! Sound the alarm!

We should start a lottery that sarin or an analog neuro toxic agent will be used in NYC next week.

IF such an amateurish stunt should occur, nooooo-one will buy it.

The current opposition will smell a rat in ...well...a New York minute.

"w" babbles about war cause the "enemy of ten" is close to finishing their deed. behind the scenes the us $ game is over, system #8 is ready to assume its role. it is a last gasp attempt to survive (a cornered cat), this time intimidation will not work (or be allowed).

IMS but HO.

The market is starting out like the lousy weather we're experiencing this morning. -156.10 as of now. Will we head below the NIKKEI 9000 mark? Today's a good bet. I guess we'll break the 19 year low mark. It's Friday here. Looking forward to the weekend to gather thoughts and hatch crash protection strategies.

I like Gold for all the reasons already mentioned and because for once in my life I'd like to be amongst the top of the heap which I already am with my physical holdings.

Amen to what you said! It's easy to snipe from the cheap seats about what our leaders have done, or should do, etc. etc. Seems like there are a few from out in left field around here....

Can the largest tree in the forest be cut down with.....a herring? What say ye man?

Read his letter in the Washington Post. Link to be found at Drudge. He is absolutely right on all counts IMHO.

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=worldnews&StoryID=1414869

Snippit:

CAIRO (Reuters) - Arab League chief Amr Moussa said Thursday a strike against Iraq would "open the gates of hell" in the Middle East, and urged Baghdad to readmit weapons inspectors in coordination with the United Nations.


Black Blade: Oh my, not the dreaded "gates of hell"!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&ncid=716&e=3&u=/ap/20020905/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_iraq

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Army recently doubled the size of its war stocks in Kuwait to accommodate a little-noticed expansion of U.S. armored forces at a base near the Iraqi border, officials said Thursday.

Black Blade: War preparations continue. I heard that B-52 bombers have been deployed to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and US warships are being readied to set sail to beef up the fleets in the Persian Gulf and the Med. Surprisingly I had heard that US troops are also in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Syria for "exercises". Hmmm� "Interesting Times"

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXd3fRRwV2FsLU1h

Snippit:

Bentonville, Arkansas, Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp. and May Department Stores Co. said August sales were less than forecast as shoppers' frugality squeezed discounters as well as full-priced chains.


Black Blade: A slowdown in consumer spending has now hit the discounters. It has been the consumer that has propped up the economy � even according to the infomercial touts on CNBC and government economists. It is a bit hard for them to do a 180 and spin a different line now.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXd1KRXkQ3J1ZGUg
Snippit:

New York, Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose after the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. inventories fell close to an 18-month low, spurring concern that supplies are inadequate at a time when the U.S. may be preparing to attack Iraq. ``We've been seeing some nice draws in stocks in recent weeks,'' said Juha Laiho, a crude-oil trader in Houston for Finland-based Fortum Oyj. ``With the recent headlines about Bush and Iraq you have to take the inventory numbers more seriously.'' U.S. crude-oil inventories fell by 6.28 million barrels, or 2.1 percent, to 298.9 million barrels in the week ended Friday, the institute reported late yesterday. Inventories fell to 295.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, the lowest level since March 2001.


Black Blade" That's quite a drop in oil inventory at a time of war preparations in the ME. The question is whether that drop in inventory due to a rapid build up in the SPR for a more immediate attack on Iraq than many suspect. Hmmm�

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_1375124,00.html
Recession, scandals, terrorism take toll, economist says

Snippit:

The economy has been hit by a "triple whammy" of recession, terrorist attacks and corporate scandal, economist Tucker Hart Adams said Wednesday, creating "the most uncertain time that I have ever seen." Adams, the regional economist for US Bank with 25 years' experience, isn't predicting much better times ahead. Her 2003 economic forecast -- what she calls her "informed hunch" -- calls for modest economic growth of 2 percent to 2.5 percent but continued weakness in many key economic sectors. In short, things won't get much worse, but they also won't get much better. "I would love to be wrong," she said at a packed breakfast meeting with US Bank clients Wednesday morning. "But I tell you, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it."


Black Blade: Second thoughts in the banking community? I will come right out and say it � It will get worse and there's no doubt about it. There won't be any economic growth either. Economists blew it big time when the revised GDP data was released a couple of months ago. They scoffed at those of us who said that there is a recession and that its was worsening. Now they are eating crow of course and they are for the most part keeping a low profile. Yet others come out in their place to appear on the day-long infomercials (CNBC, CNNfn, and Bloomberg) to push the "buy" buttons and to "put lipstick on pigs".

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei has already gone sub 9,000 and now bounced along just above. It appears that Asian markets will be under pressure all night as the news is not good. Exports will be searching for a market as Americans and Europeans apparently cut back on spending. Looks to get "entertaining" in overnight markets, and it will likely get worse if tomorrows US unemployment data is as grim as many expect.

As always, get out of debt (as soon as possible), stash enough cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program for nonperishable food and basic necessities.

- Black Blade

From this please also recall the last Arab 'summit' whereby " ...an attack of an Arab state will be considered an attack of all Arab states........."

I sincerely believe an assault in Iraq will be devastating, America must consider the consequences. A handful of posters have suggested that 'we need the oil, therefore we will take it'. I also believe the Middle East oil producing countries have awakened to the fact that America needs cheap oil and may stage an invasion of Iraq under false pretenses to fulfil such needs. They also realize that their oil is worth more that the fiat US dollar and day-by-day oil increases in value because of the depreciating fiat currency that buys their oil.

America is losing allies in the 'terrorism' strike of Iraq because an ally of the US, in this regard, may cause repercussions. The fight, brought into full view since 911, is between the US and Iraq and possibly Iraq's allies. Why cut oneself from oil supplies and/or instigate terrorism possibilities supporting a fight that is not yours?

You see, the US is in this one alone. Germany, perhaps the most vocal, has warned the US not to invade Iraq. It will be a US vs. all Arabs and Europe in particular does not want this fight. Why would they?

More...........

I'll listen to anyone that can wake even one brainwashed American to the evil of our modern "wars", even a CFR boy. So many scores of American interventions, let alone wars, this past century incited by popularized paranoia and self-rightous bigotry against one race after another, one country after another, one religion after another. And to think American soldiers answer more to Tony Blair and kin than our US puppet officials or brass. Just another reason why, in a hierarchy out of touch and out of control, incompetence accompanies disorder and eventual dissolution. The dying world financial system is then succeeded by an innovative transformation in the institutions that nurtured and supported it- religious, political, financial, educational, social, etc.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33759-2000Jun21.htmlSnip:

On Tuesday the Institute for Supply Management reported the manufacturing sector of the economy is barely growing at all.

Wednesday, Commerce Department data showed the construction industry has stalled out.

Today two reports revealed the services sector is expanding more slowly than expected and chain store sales are falling short of projections.

Only auto sales and housing are holding up. And analysts are anxious about August's auto action, because cheap deals enticed family groups into the showrooms. Car buyers are so hooked on incentives that General Motors, which canceled its 0 percent financing only last month, has been forced to bring it back. Although Detroit is on the road to one of its best sales years ever, profits are being hurt by the costly inventives.

********
Misetich

Housing and cars bought on debt -

Stocks are way overvalued not reflecting economic reality -

US $ does not reflect economic reality

A substantial correction in both can be expected

Gold - get some

Got gold?

GoldCoaster (09/05/02; 18:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 84433)
Birthday Contest
$$$334.75$$$
===
WELCOME there Sir GoldCoaster !
But please don't NICKEL me --- YOU must DIME me !
Lots of room where you are thinking, so please try again,
Tks
<;-)

"We need the oil, therefore we will PAY for it." ??????

I never did think highly of the punks who go around the streets "shopping" at the point of a gun.

'Know thyself' is, I suppose, what it will never boil down to. Excuses are too easy to manufacture.

Gold. Earn you some, along with everythin else. --- Ari

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41160-2002Sep5.htmlSnip:

By Kim Dixon
Reuters
Thursday, September 5, 2002; 2:52 PM


CHICAGO (Reuters) - Health insurance prices jumped 12.7 percent over the past year, the biggest hike since 1990, as insurers wrestled with soaring health care costs while pleasing investors with record profits, according to a survey of employers released on Thursday.

Big Fortune 500 companies and smaller firms alike are skimping more on health benefits, and more are opting not to offer health insurance at all. Employers said they cannot carry these costs on their own and are passing more costs to employees, a trend likely to escalate in the future, the survey said.

"What seems clear is that employees are likely to pay more for health benefits and health care in the future," said Larry Levitt, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, which released the annual poll of big and small employers' health benefit plans.

**********
Misetich
Consumers are being squeezed by rising service costs/health/property taxes etc.

Sooner than later the "consumer bull" that has fuelled the excess of the 90's - debt based - will come to an end

Got gold?

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold and Silver are higher tonight, Petroleum prices are rising on war fears, the USD is falling against other currencies, the US market indices for some reason and higher - probably on institutional buying (propping up?), and the grains are generally higher as the drought in the US, South America, Australia and Asia are sapping stored supplies and crops wither away into the dust as this "New Dust Bowl" takes hold. The US midwest is suffering through the se4cond and in many areas, the third year of severe drought. For many areas the crop is destroyed or simply nonexistent. Get prepared at the very least - it's "cheap" insurance and so far there has been no relief. Besides, it is too late in the year for any late crops should sufficent rain return. besides as unemployment risies it is a good idea to prepare with a food storage program to offset one more cost.

- Black Blade

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/05/rtr714348.htmlSnip:

TOKYO, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said on Friday the government was not considering an extra budget but that each economy-related minister would review what could be done to help strengthen the economy.

"It's not something that can be resolved by fiscal measures alone," Shiokawa told a news conference, when asked what the government would do in reaction to a fall in the Tokyo stock market's Nikkei average to 19-year lows this week.

"We are not considering an extra budget or any special measures," he said.
...........
**********
Misetich

From continent to continent world leaders seem to say 'abandon ship'

Got gold?

I see some misconceptions being fostered here. I may need to challenge them.

Still raining in Tokyo and the NIKKEI keeps falling. -204.8 at last count. NIKKEI hanging in there at 9017.

Al Fulchino (09/05/02; 21:11:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 84451)
test
===
OF COURSE, you were speaking about GOLD misconceptions, YES?
That is the only thing spoken about HERE !
<;-)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXe8gxREVS5TLiBFSnip:
By Siobhan Hughes and Monee Fields-White


Washington, Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. services industry, the largest part of the economy, grew last month at the slowest pace since January amid signs that consumers are paring spending.

The Institute for Supply Management's index for retail, construction and other non-manufacturing companies fell to 50.9 last month, close to the level of 50 that separates growth from contraction. August's reading was lower than the 53.1 in July and the weakest since it was 49.6 in January.

The growing prospect of a U.S. attack on Iraq, weakness in stock markets and the unwillingness of companies to resume hiring has driven consumer confidence to a nine-month low. Retailers are starting to see a slowdown in spending, which accounts for two- thirds of the economy.
**********
Misetich

Unemployment is rising, retail sales stalling, manufacturing still way below average - excess capacity - inventories rising

The "economic world engine" is going in reverse - and its pulling the rest of the world -US dependent - along with it

Got gold?

oops!

Please challenge away. I for one like to hear all sides of
the arguement.

The Iraqi War Hymn Book didn't mention that word until todayMy wife sat back during the six o'clock news, looked at me and said "This is a set-up".

All over the world opposition is falling like rain on the Administration's leap to war.

The President knew it would. He must have had another, compelling reason to launch this adventure, knowing it would run smack into a brick wall of opposition.

So he has selectively released a new word for the propaganda hymn book as a clue... "Black Mail". IF he actually received such a threat, there would of course be a letter making demands including threat evidence to show to the World which would help to explain why he was angry and going to war. But why all the theatrics if this scenario is true? What a high risk adventure! What sheer entertainment! For fun:

Take a look at the regional map of Iran and Iraq from the point of view of an invading general setting up in Kuwait. Iran on your right flank, Saudi Arabia on your left, 12 million people in Iraq with 400 miles of bad road to Baghdad. No McDonald's on the way. Perhaps 1.7 million folks waiting there, maybe more. The noise about Iraq's Republican guard caving in? What would you do if there were no exit, No redemption, Your worst exiled enemies now in bed with the US? Did I mention the Israeli "catalyst"?

Your American forces must be diluted to guard your supply line...400 miles worth. If Iran decides to get into mischief, you must have a plan. 200,000 soldiers to invade Iraq? Subtract a large fraction for logistics and support, divide the rest by the distances from Kuwait to Baghdad and what do you have?

An out numbered, exposed army on a fool's errand. Perhaps this is why the military is united against this whole idea. Will they change their minds if black mail is the real reason? I don't think so.

If there is an attack on the US, the military will probably suggest retaliation in kind.

I could certainly tie gold into why Cavan Man's Jimmy Carter is great for the need for gold. And also to Aristotle's thoughts of paying for oil instead of using a gun. But it would be somewhat confrontational. It is often thought that sharing ideas back and forth will ultimately win the day, but that is in the minds of self appointed reservoirs. The plates of the earth show us that as long as their are competing ideas there will be friction.

Regards.

YES ! And you are one of the Wize Old Men !
<;-)

OR, --- IS that WISE ?
<;-)

Thanks for the response to my query. I was hoping more would say what they thought might happen if the mining companies did hold back some of their production. I'm going to send a few emails out to the miners and see what they think.

I see you can still jest, nevertheless what one man calls wisdom another may call something else.

What some see as a way to survival may differ in the view of another. And to not understand the Middle East properly is to bring about this country's death by blows delivered by wolves in sheeps clothing as well as those by stealth.

In times such as this even family members must be challenged.

http://stage.agiweb.org/gap/legis107/npra.htmlNo need to keep this oil in reserve. Use it now! Let the ME countries battle amongst themselves. The oil could easily be routed through the Prudhoe Bay system, with possibly another parallel pipeline. Use our military to guard against sabotage and terrorism. No need to start WW3 because of greed!

BUT, I and the Hobbits are trying to learn about all aspects of TECHNICAL things that will win the WAR to FREE GOLD. Perhaps, all these other areas are of great importance too, however, we admit that we know very little about the true feelings in the ME, (other than what is feed to us by the Media) and therefore understand less of that about which you speak. Will this further the CAUSE ?
Tks
GW

Looks like the Powers that Be in the govt or the banks here are pumping money into stocks. At taxpayer expense. Govt pension funds buying stocks so that the banks will have a better report at the end of the month? They can't let the NIKEEI fall below 9000. 9047 at last recent count.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B64BCF89C%2D6D02%2D47E2%2D8DD5%2DBCD022E6BCF9%7D

Snippit:

TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- The Nikkei Average sank 2.2 percent to a new 19-year low Friday morning after disappointing data raised concerns about the economic health of the U.S., Japan's biggest trade partner.


Black Blade: Plagued by a failing banking system, crumbling currency and loss of weaker export markets, the Nikkei 225 fell to fresh 19 year lows. Meanwhile precious metals hold up very well as a safe haven.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020906/0003000003_1.html

Snippit:

TOKYO (AP)--Despite signs that Japan's long-stagnant economy may be recovering, high school seniors' chances of finding employment when they graduate next April will be lower than ever, the Labor Ministry warned Friday. According to a ministry report, companies nationwide will only be hiring one new graduate for every two looking for a job. That is down from this year, when companies had 61 jobs for every 100 new graduates.

Black Blade: The growing "Bone Pile" in Japan. Hmmm�

""The Gold industry can impossibly act against the CB's Gold cartel. Even if they wanted to.
Official goldreserves (30.000 tonnes) is the largest amount of Gold under a common umbrella.""-Belgian

The gold industry is taking on the CB's Gold cartel. They have stopped building mines. It is going to take an assured gold price of $350 gold and perhaps upwards to inspire the mining companies to start aggressively building out their gold projects. Of the five or six biggest miners, how many of them have recently built out or plan to build a significant number of projects? How many have cut their exploration budgets to the bone? How many are experiencing a decline in production? It is the central bankers who were forced to step up to the plate and supply the gold necessary to meet the excess demand. They are selling 400 tonnes or approximately 12 million ounces of gold to satisfy gold consumers. The gold miners have upped the ante and closed out 11 million or so ounces of gold hedges in the first half of this year alone. One mining company has even floated the idea of closing out their underwater hedge book. The miners know the gold price is below fair market value. They know they are cannibalizing their own productive capacity so as to ensure the survival of a few bullion banks that leased tonnes of gold at 1% and sold off that gold to the point where they can never buy it back without bankrupting themselves. They know that the economic aberration the CB's and the bullion banks have constructed is an artificial construct that is doomed. Gold production is declining. There is no supply of new mines in the pipeline at todays prices. The central Banks have no alternative but to allow gold to rise to a point where the miners can restore the gold business to a semblance of sanity.
Official reserves may be 30,000 tonnes but the CB's don't have 30,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults. Anywhere between 5000 and 15,000 tonnes(conservative estimate) of CB's gold have been leased by the gold carry trade and then sold off. Confabulations like deep storage gold have been floated to cover up the central bankers problems. Very shortly the CB's must almost double the supply of gold they are delivering to the market under the terms of WA. Sooner than everyone thinks....

I had a car breakdown today, and a tow truck came to pick up my vehicle and take it to repair shop. The driver and owner was skilful and soon we were on our way. I rode in the cab with him.
"How are things here?" I asked
"Very slow. I have another truck, a flatbed, but it's parked in the garage. Not enough business to pay someone to man it."
"That means people are not repairing their vehicles?"
"Right".
"How are they going to get to work, if they don't have a vehicle?"
"State Inspection is going up to $40 dls a year, next year. More stringent requirements on emissions."
"How are people going to make a living, if they can't repair their cars right now, and requirements are going to be even more stringent next year?"
"A lady that does the vehicle inspections, has three kids to raise on her own, has to spend $40,000 to get the new vehicle inspection equipment. Where's she going to get the $40,000? What's she going to do?" he asked.
He went on: " There's going to be more stealing, more uninspected cars on the roads. People have to work to eat."
I said: "Seems to me that there will have to be bribery at work, to allow the less fortunate to work."
As I sat and waited for my car to be repaired, I gazed at a pawn shop across the street. A young couple went in, with a little child holding a doll. "Lord, help that young family" I thought to myself. "What are they going to pawn? And what good will it do them? Keep the wolf away from the door for three days, or a week? And then - what?"
This is just the beginning of a terrible ordeal for Americans. And others throughout the world.
Lucky those few who can get some gold while it is attainable.
God help those who have nothing to fall back on - most people, in fact.

Sierra

UPDATE #6 (as of FRIDAY 00:01 Denver time 9/6/02)
===
FYI ------HIGH, Low and Settlement Price of GC2Z on:
9/3/02 $315.9 $314.1 $315.0s
9/4/02 $317.1 $313.8 $316.5s Change + $1.5
9/5/02 $320.8 $318.1 $319.8s Change + $3.3
===

$$$$ 398.6 $$$$ Believer (09/04/02; 18:22:46MT - msg#: 84358)

$$$$ 375.0 $$$$ Henri (09/04/02; 10:58:18MT - msg#: 84326)

$$$$ 362.3 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (09/04/02; 05:21:24MT - msg#: 84304)

$$$$ 354.4 $$$$ perform (09/04/02; 07:34:49MT - msg#: 84313)

$$$$ 353.4 $$$$ darkhorse (09/03/02; 20:56:04MT - msg#: 84280)

$$$$ 349.2 $$$$ mdgc (09/05/02; 15:45:42MT - msg#: 84427)

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Socrates964 (09/04/02; 16:11:50MT - msg#: 84344)

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (09/04/02; 21:38:27MT - msg#: 84381)

$$$$ 342.5 $$$$ gvc (09/03/02; 17:08:12MT - msg#: 84255)

$$$$ 341.7 $$$$ old gold (09/04/02; 11:40:02MT - msg#: 84330)

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (09/03/02; 22:36:21MT - msg#: 84289)

$$$$ 335.4 $$$$ Roger The Shrubber (09/05/02; 08:18:47MT - msg#: 84404)

$$$$ 334.7 $$$$ GoldCoaster (09/05/02; 21:29:56MT - msg#: 84455)

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ Speedy (09/04/02; 19:15:01MT - msg#: 84366)

$$$$ 333.4 $$$$ Slowman (09/04/02; 20:10:11MT - msg#: 84370)

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (09/04/02; 19:11:32MT - msg#: 84365)

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ misetich (09/04/02; 05:28:30MT - msg#: 84307)
$$$$ 331.2 $$$$ Pippin (09/04/02; 12:50:09MT - msg#: 84335)

$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/04/02; 11:36:15MT - msg#: 84329)

$$$$ 329.3 $$$$ mikal (09/04/02; 17:08:29MT - msg#: 84349)
$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ The Hoople (09/04/02; 12:04:30MT - msg#: 84332)

$$$$ 328.5 $$$$ steady (09/03/02; 20:14:41MT - msg#: 84272)

$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/04/02; 11:15:13MT - msg#: 84327)

$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Trapper (09/03/02; 20:12:26MT - msg#: 84271)

$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ luckypierre (09/03/02; 15:20:51MT - msg#: 84244)

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (09/03/02; 18:33:51MT - msg#: 84261)

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ Galerider (09/03/02; 20:53:27MT - msg#: 84279)

$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ The CoinGuy (09/04/02; 13:00:07MT - msg#: 84338)

$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Rock (09/04/02; 12:19:18MT - msg#: 84334)

$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (09/04/02; 05:02:31MT - msg#: 84302)

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Boxman (9/4/02; 04:27:17MT - msg#: 84301)

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ a nation of one (09/03/02; 13:55:53MT - msg#: 84229)

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Tommy P (09/03/02; 14:33:23MT - msg#: 84233)

$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (09/04/02; 21:59:49MT - msg#: 84382)

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ balzac (09/04/02; 17:22:15MT - msg#: 84353)

$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ The Knife (09/04/02; 16:30:43MT - msg#: 84345)
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (09/03/02; 12:29:20MT - msg#: 84221)

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (09/03/02; 13:18:00MT - msg#: 84226)

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (09/03/02; 15:06:26MT - msg#: 84240)

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - msg#: 84257)
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ slingshot (09/03/02; 16:57:17MT - msg#: 84254)

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ davefinger (09/03/02; 14:52:14MT - msg#: 84235)
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ koala bear (9/4/02; 04:08:54MT - msg#: 84299)

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ Bulldog (09/03/02; 21:53:40MT - msg#: 84288)

$$$$ 318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)

$$$$ 317.9 $$$$ VanRip (09/05/02; 12:20:50MT - msg#: 84415)

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Artie Farkle (09/04/02; 20:02:53MT - msg#: 84369)

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ Tevye (09/04/02; 08:02:40MT - msg#: 84316)

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (09/04/02; 07:34:44MT - msg#: 84312)

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Frosty (09/03/02; 18:59:09MT - msg#: 84265)

$$$$ 313.3 $$$$ Woodie (09/03/02; 23:41:11MT - msg#: 84291)

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ SilverHoard (09/04/02; 17:01:10MT - msg#: 84347)

$$$$ 311.4 $$$$ De Ronin (09/04/02; 12:16:42MT - msg#: 84333)

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ Noble1 (09/04/02; 20:25:58MT - msg#: 84371)

$$$$ 308,0 $$$$ Trurl (09/05/02; 09:33:57MT - msg#: 84408)

$$$$ 295.5 $$$$ Topaz (9/5/02; 01:41:33MT - msg#: 84389)

===
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
===
Thanks all !
IF, I have either MISSED or errored in the recording of your "Prognostication", PLEASE send me a "hint" for correction.
AND, rumor has it that one, Sir BoundSpirit was lobbing for the contest to end at Thursday Settlement, instead of NEXT Friday !
<;-)

GOLD is one of the few metals that serves as a monetary asset. And that is why credit creation gold sold between central banks brings more then $9,000 an oz. That is why banking rules allow banks to claim they still own the swapped gold. It is used to effectively hide swap transactions. These transactions hide off balance sheet loans. Our Federal debt exceeds $90 Trillion. The state of Maine like most states have off balance sheet debt. For Maine it is $1.7 Trillion on a population of 1.2+ million people. America is conquered from within, by our own privately owned banking system. USA as a country is history and excists in name only. We the people exist only to serve the money gods. The only way out is to take the exit road off the fast lane of life. The $ i the mark of the BEAST.

test< TEST

Well, the rain let up for awhile. The government desperately does not want the NIKEEI below 9000. Last count, -89.1 at 9133. We'll see how the final hour runs over here. Pension fund buying to prop up the banks. It has to be. Promise I won't do this every day but it's funny how the stock market is openly rigged over here (no secret to it, that's why mom and pop nippon won't buy into it) and how they play the shell game and rob Peter to pay Paul in Tokyo. I think the U.S. market is rigged but you won't admit it.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,2276,56561,00.html?

US attack on Iraq could see Saddam firing at Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

Snippit:

(MESSERY, France) President Saddam Hussein could respond to a full-scale US attack on Iraq by firing at Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, sending crude oil prices to US$100 a barrel, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, who was once synonymous with Arab oil power, painted the scary scenario on Wednesday. The former Saudi oil minister, who first got to know Mr Saddam while mediating in a dispute between Iraq and Syria in 1975 over a Syrian dam on the Euphrates, said the Iraqi president could prove dangerous, especially if he looked set to lose power.

'You cannot corner a cat. If worse comes to worse, what prevents him from firing these weapons at neighbouring countries down in the south, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia? Hundreds of thousands of people will die and oil operations will stop for some time.' As Saudi oil minister from 1962 to 1986, Mr Yamani controlled oil policy when prices rocked the world economy during the 1973 Arab embargo on the West. He said Mr Saddam's actions when his troops were driven from Kuwait in the 1991 gulf war should be given serious thought. 'When he left Kuwait, before leaving he burned the oil wells. OK, you get a lesson from that. It will be very serious.'


Black Blade: The price of oil will rise regardless. US crude inventories have fallen sharply and that along with rising fears over conflict in the ME, the price of oil continues to rise. Also, OPEC will not raise production quotas this Sept. 19 in Osaka when member countries meet. Yamani? Now that's a name outta the past.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020905/us_commodity_rdp_1.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil and refined products rallied Thursday amid steep declines in U.S. inventories of crude oil and boosted by underlying concerns over a U.S. military attack on Iraq, traders said. Prices got a boost from inventory data released late Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute which showed a 6.3 million barrel decline in crude stocks, a 1.4 million barrel drop in gasoline supplies and a 258,000-barrel fall in distillates, which include heating oil.


Black Blade: Oil going to SPR, not imported, or increased consumption? We can rule out increased consumption.

Thanks for responding kasperjack. Waiting for your other part of the reply.
@ Al Facino :Would like to know your vieuws, Sir. TIA.
BB: Old Yamani (the intrigant), living in NY, has been "hired" before to endorse propaganda.
Ari: ...earn Gold...Yes Sir, democracy >>> meritocracy !
Hugh Hendry is "again" on CNBC-Europ and is allowed to call cats...cats ! POG 1.000 $/ ounce.He said it. But the way he is saying it has changed. He changed the "tone" of his Goldsong, as if... ! Yes, right...very dangerous Gold.

As a longtime lurker from the Northern Territory of Australia I thought that I should try my luck at this contest. Gold is going up but the timing of the rise is problematical. Here in Australia production is declining and there is very little new exploration going on - as an exploration geo I know from first hand experience! Some of the big hedgers in Oz have now been taken over by more rational companies and hedging is no longer fashionable. So given a bit of luck and hopefully removal of the dead hand of the shorting crew we should all make piles of money when gold goes ballistic!

I would like to start off any postings that I may, from time to, do. By Thanking MK, and everyone else that contributes to this GREAT FORUM. As has been said before, an Education that can be had Nowhere else! Thank You. --Just Cycling on Thru.

I would like to start off any postings that I may, from time to, do. By Thanking MK, and everyone else that contributes to this GREAT FORUM. As has been said before, an Education that can be had Nowhere else! Thank You. --Just Cycling on Thru.

USA & British aircraft have attacked Iraq in biggest raid in over 4 years!?? . Has anybody heard if this is correct.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/09/06/wirq06.xml&sSheet=/news/2002/09/06/ixnewstop.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=32726I read this article about an hour ago on The Drudge Report. Seems the NZ headline is correct.

The CoinGuy

The ECB wants "GROWTH" ! Central Bankers want to avoid panic and are constraining (!!!) the euro/dollar exchange rate for growth's sake ! The cartel has spoken.

sector (09/05/02; 10:38:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 84412)

--IMF rules allow BOTH Central Banks to claim they EACH still own the swapped gold. This effectively hides the transaction in the same manner that Mahonia's "Loans" hid Enron's debt.--

Thanks for the reply.

http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
A joint mission of about 15 to 20 US and UK military aircraft attacked several sites in Iraq taking out regional headquarters and tracking sites. It appears that the "softening up" part of the campaign has begun. Crude oil is banging against $30/bbl again and Gold regains all earlier losses in overnight trading. Cap'n Tony Blair arrives today to meet with Dubya at Camp David to discuss war plans.

The USD has reversed slightly after having strengthened overnight against other currencies. Grains are higher on dwindling food and seed supplies as the drought continues. All eyes will be on August unemployment data (in about an hour). The "official" unemployment rate should rise back up to 6%.

In other news, it appears that phone records place Martha Stewart in a bad position. It appears that she has lied about not having been in contact with her Merrill Lynch broker and ImClone CEO Waksal just prior to the ImClone public announcement. The senate has indicated that she will be subpoenaed to testify before congress. It also drives a nail into Sam Waksal's coffin as he already tesytified that he did not have any conversation with Stewart. Can you say "perjury"? I knew you could. The corporate scandals are far from over.

It appears that it could be quite a volatile day on Wall Street today - at least it should be "entertaining".

- Black Blade

http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=29720&SelectRegion=Central_Asia
KABUL, 5 Sep 2002 (IRIN) - In a major step towards restoring economic stability in the war-ravaged country, Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai in an address to the nation broadcast from the capital, Kabul, on Wednesday announced the introduction of new currency notes.
------------------
Outlining the reasons for the move, the governor of Afghanistan's Central Bank, Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi, told IRIN that the value of the current afghani was low, thereby rendering transactions difficult. At the existing currency rate, "10,000 afghanis are worth 25 [US] cents"," he said. "Henceforth, however, people will no longer have to carry bags full of money whenever they want to buy something."

Ahadi went on to say that the Central Bank [Da Afghanistan Bank] had not been in control of the printing of banknotes, and had therefore been unable to formulate a meaningful monetary policy. "We do not know how much money is in circulation now," he said. (Three different versions of the afghani are in circulation - all printed in Russia.)
-----------
The central bank's operations virtually ground to a halt after the fall of President Najibullah's government in 1992. The government of the mujahidin, which then took over, issued massive amounts of currency, much of it in notes of very high denominations, resulting in hyperinflation.

The banking system further contracted in 1996 when the Taliban captured Kabul and banned the collection and payment of interest. However, although these hardline Muslim militants controlled the headquarters of the central bank, they never succeeded in gaining control over the country's money supply.

Ahadi said he expected that with the introduction of the new currency notes the central bank would take control of the printing of money and engage in formulating a meaningful monetary policy - essential to the success Afghanistan's postwar reconstruction. "The bank would then be able to keep prices stable and maintain standard exchange rates for the currency," he explained.

Greetings Sir Belgian,

I have been watching Hugh Hendry the last few months on CNBC Europe, and have been also impressed with his candor and insightful analysis... something which is all too rare on CNBC USA.

It also helps that he belongs to a hedge fund, where product does not need to be pushed onto an unsuspecting public.

However, I missed tonight's appearance, could you be so kind as to elaborate on his comments?

Many thanks in advance...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXgppBRzVS5TLiBBSnip:

By Mary Schlangenstein


Washington, Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. airlines have lost $9.7 billion in the year since terrorists destroyed four aircraft and 3,000 lives. About 82,000 jobs disappeared. US Airways Group Inc. sought bankruptcy protection and UAL Corp. may be next.

Those seeking brighter days may have a long wait as carriers begin a second wave of job cuts, overhaul operations to slash costs and prepare to pay more for airport security.

``The pain is ahead of us, not behind us,'' Delta Air Lines Inc. Chief Executive Officer Leo Mullin said in an interview.

Industrywide losses are forecast to exceed $5 billion this year because both air travel and fares have dropped since the Sept. 11 attacks. Increased customer- service fees, ticket taxes and security-gate obstacles may undermine any recovery in travel demand, and carriers will have to seek affordable war-risk insurance to replace an expiring government program.
**********
Misetich

``The pain is ahead of us, not behind us,''- can be applied not only to the airline industry - but consumers, corporate earnings, government debts

Got gold?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Caroline%20Baum&touch=1&s1=baum&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APW__VBYDR3JlZW5zSnip:
In the traditional kick-off speech at Fed Camp, otherwise known as the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted the late 1990s stock market boom was a bubble. Then he washed his hands of the whole thing.

``Bubbles are often precipitated by perceptions of real improvements in the productivity and underlying profitability of the corporate economy,'' Greenspan said. ``Investors then too often exaggerate the extent of the improvement in economic fundamentals. Human psychology being what it is, bubbles tend to feed on themselves.''

And where do they get the material to feed on, pray tell? Why, from the friendly central bank, which responds to increased credit demand by pumping out enough reserves to prevent interest rates from rising.
.........
After all, who wants to be remembered in the history books as the Fed chairman who presided over the biggest asset bubble in the country's history? Much better to have ``Maestro'' in front of one's name, and a long list of accomplishments -- bailouts of speculators under the guise of avoiding systemic risk -- after it.
............
``The speech shows he's panicking,'' said Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle. ``He's admitted we've gone from bubble to bust. Pretty soon, people will figure out that, based on the two previous asset bubbles that have burst -- the 1920s and Japan -- we're only one-fifth of the way through resolving the problem.''
............
Greenspan has clearly been working on bubbles, both in and out of the bathtub, for a long time. He finally put a concise collection of his thoughts down on paper to share with the luminaries gathered in the Grand Tetons to ponder the pressing issues of the day.

``We at the Federal Reserve considered a number of issues related to asset bubbles -- that is, surges in prices of assets to unsustainable levels,'' Greenspan said. ``As events evolved, we recognized that, despite our suspicions, it was very difficult to definitively identify a bubble until after the fact -- that is, when its bursting confirmed its existence.''
...........
Funny, anyone who reads the transcripts of Fed meetings, released with a five- year lag, would find that statement disingenuous. In response to concerns about a stock market bubble raised by Fed governor Larry Lindsey at the Sept. 24, 1996 meeting, Greenspan acknowledged that ``there is a stock market bubble problem at this point'' and even conceded there were some reliable remedies.

``We do have the possibility of raising major concerns by increasing margin requirements,'' Greenspan said. ``I guarantee that if you want to get rid of the bubble, whatever it is, that will do it. My concern is that I'm not sure what else it will do.''
**********
Misetich

Sir Greenspan - the Maestro - gambled and lost

Got gold?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=David%20DeRosa&touch=1&s1=derosa&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APXWs0hNuSXNoaWhhSnip:

By David DeRosa
New Canaan, Connecticut, Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Populist Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has another bee in his bonnet about Japanese banks. This time he's warning he may move public funds from Japanese banks to Citibank.

That's right, the governor of Tokyo -- who has written a book which some interpret as anti-American -- is ready to move deposits to an American bank. And not just any American bank, Citibank, an icon of American corporate culture.

Ishihara claims the Japanese banks are ``hiding'' problems. Well isn't that a huge news flash?

Mizuho Holdings Inc. is at the top of his attack list. Ishihara demands that Mizuho and other Japanese banks prove to him they are creditworthy. As the governor says ``We're responsible for public money, taxpayers' money, and we can't just let it go up in smoke.''
..........
Misetich

Japanese banks - how low before they will implode? Japanese housewives are shrewd - the are leading the way in buying PHYSICAL GOLD

Got gold?

HH sees no profits in sight and is therefore very suspicious about every bout of misplaced optimism.
HH states that the FED (in particular) is bluntly and blatantly "intervening" into almost *ALL* markets and this was smartly confirmed by CNBC as to make it the more clear to their vieuwers. HH stated that the FED gave the BBs, hands free, on POG/Gold manipulation and that without this widely supported, cartel-action, POG could already easely have been valued at over 1.000$/ounce.

The resulting effect of having a HH on CNBC is the following : Small Investors will remain somewhat confident that CBs will use their invisible hand to support the stockmarkets and no need to rush to Gold, because it is "controlled" ! So, both HH and CNBC are scratching each other's back.

Therefore, with this understanding, I'm almost convinced that POG will have much more chances to explode, after the war, if and when the control of oil by the US should be succesfull. But there is mounting opposition by Euroland via labor in UK, against US's actions against ME-oil.
T. Blair's obedience towards Bush is highly ridiculed.
It wan't take long long before the general public will understand that the coming misery will be caused because of oil (again) and the question remains if all this is worth it. Note Yamani's 180� turn on POO > 100 $ because of devil S.Hussein. Even Tim Wood (hedgingweb) doesn't understand (doesn't want to understand) why POG hasn't run away.
Remember what TG said about the Gulf war and POG.
Otto Issing (Germany) even wants a lower euro (and lower Gold) as to let the dollar pull the (impossible) growth !

HH stressed on the fact that we live under the almighty invisible hand of the manipulating cartels for our own good and that free markets are only a dream.

That's why I dare to use the word "obscene" when indicating how ridiculously low, Gold is priced.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Joe%20Mysak&touch=1&s1=mysak&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APW2fKhU9SXMgdGhlSnip:
By Joe Mysak


New York, Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- In the municipal bond market, as investors know and New Jersey lawmakers will soon find out, there is credit risk, there is interest rate risk, and there is judicial risk.

The first two are easy to grasp. Investors have to be concerned about the financial condition of the municipality they loan money. They also should know that if they hold a bond with a 3 percent coupon, and all new bonds are being sold with 5 percent coupons, the value of their bond falls.

The last kind of risk, judicial, is the wild card. Most investors assume their bonds are legal. Every once in a while, a court, usually a supreme court, will take a look at a bond issue and decide that no, it isn't.

Something like that happened in New Jersey last week.
The state Supreme Court was asked -- by citizens concerned that the state's debt is out of control -- to decide the legality of bonds not approved by voters that are to be sold by the state for schools and repaid by annual appropriations.

The court decided they were legal, that the constitutional guarantee of a ``thorough and efficient'' education trumped the people's right to vote on bond issues.

The court also decided that the validity of more than $10 billion in bonds already sold by the state without voter approval for a variety of other purposes must be reargued before the court.

``Why is the court considering contract debt seriously now? Because the issue has come up so many times in the past, and hasn't been definitively answered,'' said John Hallacy, head of municipal research at Merrill Lynch & Co. ``They're also being pragmatic. Most people wouldn't have voted for the school debt, would they?''
*********
Misetich

Uncontrollable debt - massive debts accumulated in the last 20 years -
Coincentally in the last 20 years we have witnessed

A stock market bull
A bond market bull
A debt bull
A gold market bear

Its over - debt implosion- will take care of the first three

Fear will fuel a gold bull

Got gold?

Interesting post. I am missing the 'blackmail' side of the story. What blackmail?

Are you suggesting the troops in Kuwait are 'sitting ducks' awaiting the 'first strike' thus giving the US a reason to attack Iraq and/or Iran? Provocation?

TIA

@ Belgian and Golden Bear:
Just thought I would add the point that HH referred to the lawsuit in Boston without naming Reg Howe directly. That the judge threw the case out because the FED had the right to manipulate gold and currencies. CNBC Simon and Geoff said we will keep that in mind or something similar.
OZ

Gandalf the White (09/05/02; 22:11:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 84464)
Yes, Sir Al --- You do make sense !
BUT, I and the Hobbits are trying to learn about all aspects of TECHNICAL things that will win the WAR to FREE GOLD

me: That is the type of thinking that would worry , better said it never has been strictly technical. It is people that will free it. With all the technical aspects that people want to crow about regarding silver and gold, fiat has still acted as money. So it cannot be counted on to wait for just the technical aspects. The danger is of a forum or thought process being fed to others that is trying to be sterile and claim that all results can be analyzed at a lab.

more later. regards.

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/09/06/rtr714619.htmlSnip:

"A financial crisis is unavoidable," Sakakibara told Reuters in an interview on the Malaysian resort island of Pangkor Laut, where he is due to address an international conference.

"It could happen this month, three to six months time, but sooner or later it will happen," Sakakibara, known as Mr Yen because his comments in currency markets are closely followed, said.
...........
"Only structural reforms can help, but the current leadership does not have the resolve. They are just muddling along."

He said the government should refrain from intervention in the stock market, which has plumbed 19-year lows this week.

"They have already done it once, you can only do it once," he said, adding that there were no effective weapons to combat Japan's problem of deflation.

"Japan has already exhausted all macro policies."
*********

Sooner or later it will happen -

Gold get some!

Got gold?

freeing gold is more like a marriage than and if you try taking your spouse to a technical party only, one of you will go stir crazy

Strange - the unemployment rate declined from 5.9% to 5.7% and July added 67,000 jobs (revised from 6,000). I guess McDonald's was hiring. Anyway, Wall Street likes it so we should see a rocket ride at the start. Many expected the rate to rise to 6% but instead everyone is back to work and and earning more according to the BLS. Hmmm...

Gold and petroleum are higher as well. Gold is over $320 an ounce and oil at about $30/bbl. There will be a lot of interesting spin on these numbers.

- Black Blade

Thank you for the recap and your deep (as always) analysis of the ulterior motives between the lines...

Being a relative newcomer to the "Gold Wars", it is trying at times to understand these alternate paths down the golden trail (and their possible implications) and I personally appreciate the patience you display in imparting you wisdom for the benefit of all here. It must also be said once again that without our fine hosts, the dissemination of this wisdom would not be available anywhere near as freely, making this forum as precious as the physical it represents...

Your statement:

"...The resulting effect of having a HH on CNBC is the following : Small Investors will remain somewhat confident that CBs will use their invisible hand to support the stockmarkets and no need to rush to Gold, because it is "controlled" ! So, both HH and CNBC are scratching each other's back..."

The gravity of this statement has only just registered in my mind, and my understanding is that as Jim Sinclair stated recently, this manipulation against the primary trend, backed by technicals AND fundamentals will be a losing game for the cartel, since never has this kind of control been successful in the past. You also have just stated as much, and increases the urgency for those aware enough to realize that the present opportunity to purchase physical at "obscene" discount to "value" is fading away...


My best to you Sir...

http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat/bbs_read.asp?mid=44519&tid=44519&fid=1☆t=1&sr=1&snsa=A"...As for the stock market, we've just had the first 90% downside day. What this 90% day signifies is that the stock market is now open to, and readying itself for -- all-out panic.

I think where we are now is on track for the wide-open panic phase of this bear market. Note, I did not say a panic moment or a panic day, I said a panic phase. The panic phase could take a week or a few weeks or a few months.

Before the panic has ended, stocks will be knocked to their knees, consumers will be in shock, the housing bubble will have burst as will the auto-buying bubble, the July 23 lows will be history, and the "A" wave of this bear market will finally have come to an end.

When the panic phase ends, investors and speculators will be in shock, and the stock market will appear to be shattered -- torn apart, literally in pieces.

That will give us the most "sold-out" market in years. This sold out market will set the base for the corrective (upside) wave "B" of this bear market. The "B" should be an upside whopper, and it should carry well into next year. After this corrective "B" leg will come the final "C" leg -- but I'll talk about that when the time comes.

Question -- "Russell, why do you think the coming panic will be so severe?

Answer -- Ironically, the reason I believe it will be so severe is that it has been preceded by the largest load of misplaced bullishness, across-the-board denial, trash talk, and Wall Street baloney, that I have ever seen. It has been preceded by weeks and months of misguided optimism and ignorance concerning the meaning of the primary bear trend.

Instead of recognizing that this is a bear market and therefore preparing for major trouble, the US government has been spending its head off, states and cities have been running up huge deficits, business has loaded up on debt, and consumers have been buying as if a bull market is just starting.

All of this lays the groundwork for shock, surprise and horrendous losses. Frankly, I can't remember a situation like this in the half century that I've been watching markets.."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2238568.stmHere we go boys!!!

That's a tick on a rhino's rear quarter panel.

Thanks for the additional information, amazing how truth can be spun to suit one's particular point of view...

This will all be a distant memory, when Gold, begins her march in all her glory, burning all the confetti (your rubbing off on me Belgian!) in its path.

Cheers.

Gold is on the rise. It is making another attempt to cross the $330 line. I do not see it getting across by the end of next week.

I think there are more and more signs to the sophisticated players that the whole system is breaking down. "A move to gold is quite logical", as Mr. Spock of Star Trek would have had to explain to the "Enterprise" crew as to why they did so poorly on their Star Fleet 401k's (and why all the Vulkans did so well).

Lets hope the "Next Generation" of investors do better.

"We have a right to secure the supply of oil for the US at any cost. We will define what that cost is."

Folks, we had a chance 30 years ago to begin the lengthy process of weaning ourselves from the ME tete. We didn't do it.

The first gulf war was about oil and the second gulf war is about oil. Don't kid yourselves. Don't hide behind Old Glory.

Senator Carl Levin said yesterday, in response to a direct question from a reporter concerning his position on the thorny Iraq issue (and I paraphrase):

1. If Iraq was complicit in 9-11 or if it can be proved that Iraq has participated in past terror attacks on the US, WE SHOULD WHACK THEM.

2. If it is a fact that Iraq is planning to attack the US either directly or indirectly, WE SHOULD WHACK THEM.

Otherwise, probable cause is NOT a reason to trump up a rationale for unilaterally invading a sovereign nation.

I agree with Mr. Levin and BTW, I have no party affiliation. I am simply a friend of humanity. I admit to being a Teddy Roosevelt liberal; an advocate of a "square deal" for all Creation.

My best to the forum and our kind host. I have other work to be about. Good luck to all as AU will rise though we may not appreciate the context of corresponding events.

I have learned much here and I thank you all.

God Bless America.
America, bless God.
God Bless all here.
Kyrie Eleison....CM

It was used by the President yesterday for the first time...in the ongoing war discussions as a reason to invade Iraq.

His WMD arguments have not been suffucient and indeed the whole run-up to war has apparently been poorly handled and entirely haphazard by the Administration.

My supposition is that he may already HAVE a black mail threat in hand and that he is just waiting to reveal it hoping that his detractors will come around ["Get out of Israel or else we destroy New York on 9/11 with our (Fill in the blank)].

Of course if an attack occurs on 9/11/2002 then the opposition will melt and GWB looks like a genius. It all will still be about oil.

Also of note is the Al Jazzera interview with two top Al Qaeda military-type minions the second half of which will be broadcast on September 12th.

The timing of that taped interview should raise trepidation.

We can be sure they won't be talking about the latest Brittany Spears MTV videos.

Following up on your statement:

"You [Belgian] also have just stated as much, and increases the urgency for those aware enough to realize that the present opportunity to purchase physical at "obscene" discount to "value" is fading away..."

- - - - - -

In the late 1960s, early 1970s an opera-loving intellectual and market analyst had published two books which would later change the face of the American investment scene. In them, he proclaimed an end to the fixed-exchange regime -- the lynchpin of the post World War II Bretton Woods international monetary agreement. He boldly stated -- at the risk of being demonized by the mainstream press and the politicos -- that this system would collapse of its own weight, that the equity markets would immediately follow thereafter and that the Western economies would be tested beyond anything they had experienced since the great depression. He also stated that purchasing gold at the controlled $35 price would be viewed in the near future as the greatest investment opportunity of that generation's lifetime.

As it turned out, it was. Those two books -- titled "You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation" and "You Can Profit from the Coming Monetary Crisis" -- became best-sellers and a profound influence on a young man with strong interest in the financial markets and a deep concern about where the country was headed. Having just escaped university life with intellectual software inexplicably uncorrupted, those treatises played a significant role in my entering the gold business in 1973 and my politics for a lifetime. I am certain they would still play well for anyone wanting to gain a thorough grasp of the cause and effect of monetary/poltical economy -- assuming you could still find a copy. Harry Browne -- the author -- went on to assume much deserved guru status among investors as just about everything that he said would happen did happen right down to the gold price rising exactly 25 times its $35 benchmark to $875 during the decade which followed.

Now we stand a similar opportunity 30 years later -- at the 30th anniversary of my being introduced to the comforts of gold ownership and the thinking of Harry Browne. Buying gold now -- in the low three hundreds -- will be viewed a decade from now as the opportunity of a lifetime. The titles to the two books can be taken as direct personal advice: You can profit from the coming devaluation. You can profit from the coming monetary crisis. The similarities between the two eras is striking and have been cited by more than one observant commentator. Though this time around the "devaluation" and "monetary crisis" will occur de facto rather than de jure. . . THE RESULTS WILL BE THE SAME. Only this time around, it may not be so easy for the "system" to climb out of the hole its dug for itself in any acceptable time-frame. The excesses may be too great; the lack of oversight too eggregious; the contemptible greed too institutionalized. In other words, the effects of this Bubble may be with us for a very long time.

Gold ownership in the low $300s will prove to be the investment of a lifetime -- not so much for the profits it MIGHT generate but for the hard-earned capital it WILL preserve

One of the things I learned early on in my (always continuing) gold education was the rule of thumb that an ounce of gold should be able to purchase a quality men's suit. Recently I ran across a similar "rule of thumb" for copper - that a pound of copper should be able to buy a loaf of bread. I was wondering if any of the more experienced members of the forum knew of other metals "rules of thumb" (i.e. an ounce of silver should buy X, a pound of iron should buy Y).

I've only posted once or twice in my year-plus lurking here, but would like to thank everyone, especially our host, for freely sharing something worth more than gold - wisdom.

If that's the case, gold is under valued by about 150.00, but "quality" is relative I guess.

Sir MK, thanks for sharing your personal career anecdotes - I find it fascinating to hear what shapes the life of a person to go down their chosen path...

Your further analysis has much merit, but in the back of my mind, there nags a small seed of contention, planted by none other than Mr Robert Prechter. He is calling for a deflationary bust where gold will fall and the value of cash will skyrocket.

This seems implausible on first thought, as the printing presses are running at a maniacal pace. However is it possible that this Debtberg, as Belgian calls the current state of monetary affairs, could be destroyed at a velocity which is greater than the pace of printing more confetti? This would theoretically lead to scarcity of cash thus boosting its worth, and voila, the evolution of Prechter's scenario...

Hyperinflationary bust, or Deflationary bust, which will it be?

Thanks in advance for any thoughts...

Nice to see gold climbing a little bit once again. Hope all is well, and hope you stick to your investments!


Cheers!


RobotGuy.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

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Your question:

"Hyperinflationary bust, or Deflationary bust, which will it be?"

My Response:

That's exactly what I was thinking when I said:

"Gold ownership in the low $300s will prove to be the investment of a lifetime -- not so much for the profits it MIGHT generate but for the hard-earned capital it WILL preserve."

I would add that it doesn't matter to the gold owner if the current unfolding debacle resolves itself in inflation or deflation. Gold will protect against either and no matter in which order they occur. To the well-hedged portfolio, the inflation-deflation argument is a sideshow. What's important to understand is that the current economic milieu isn't resolve itself through some sort of a miracle (although the propaganda artists might have us believe otherwise). Ultimately, any economic catastrophe ends in asset destruction.

Though I have great respect for Robert Prechter, particularly his work on the Elliott Wave as a reflection of human nature -- a behaviorist (and an interesting one)*, if you will -- my view is that fiat-based economies are prone to inflation followed by deflation (as an antidote) and gold-based economies are prone to deflation followed by inflation as the antidote. This is a fiat economy and though the current situation may resolve itself outside that parameter (anything is possible), to the portfolio holder the question is essentially academic -- AS IT SHOULD BE if the portfolio is properly constructed. Though I must say I enjoy the conversation on the subject as enjoyable as anyone at this forum.

After that one might weigh his or her portfolio toward either inflation or deflation, but that weighing is strictly speculative. Mr. Prechter has long advocated the deflationary scenario. It is a speculative positioning. Equally strong arguments have been advanced for inflation even hyperinflation.

Your guess is as good as mine.

History has shown that

-- in an inflationary scenario gold rises at a higher rate than other commodities as investment money pushes on an already delicate supply

-- in a deflationary scenario gold tends to hold its own, or fall at a lesser rate than other investments, thus preserving capital.

As you can see gold is the winner in either case -- and that's why it remains the ideal portfolio insurance.

The essential fact of life in the gold market is that the price of gold has been restrained for what appears to be political reasons. This hearkens back to both of our earlier posts. As gold owners, we will take advantage of the unfolding scenario no matter which way the ball bounces.

* A few years ago George Cooper and myself were talking about the Prechter analysis (We have both studied his works) and the question came up where his mentor AJ Frost had the EW count. So we called Mr. Prechter who graciously forwarded Frost's last known chart count and put us in contact with Mr. Frost. You might be surprised to know that Frost had the graph numbered differently and proposed an economic situation the opposite of RP. His charting predicted an inflationary resolution and gold in either the beginning stages of a wave 5 super spike or the tail end of the "c" corrective wave. Unfortunately, Mr. Frost was ill at the time and unable to elaborate. All we have is his original count which was published in News & Views a few years ago.

If that was your Goodbye message, then farewell, brother. I hope it was not, but I seem to be able lately to only tune in for a morning skim of the Forum, and a weekend catchup if lucky. If you've been involved in any controversies while I was away, I'm sure you got the best of 'em! ;)

One health recommendation I've returned to over the years is a News Fast. I've been a news junkie off and on through my life, and occasionally sanity compels me to veer off away from the printed stuff and watch green leaves blow in the breeze and butterflies float and stuff like that ('specially these last days of Summer!).

The WAR stuff is like that. Stay away from it if you know what's healthy for ya! It'll drive ya crazy faster than just about any "news" I know of. You're being played to, or played, and this Forum already has a leg up on seeing through all of that...

Actually, my image of this place has always been something like sitting around the cracker barrel at MK's General Store, jawin' away over th' State of Things and "money" in particular. (Don't underestimate how much of USA history has been spent in JUST that IDENTICAL topic!)

(Hopefully, we attract some bizness in for the store now and then, or at least not scare any away!)

The arguments may come and go, but the cast of characters talking it out here remains largely the same.

That's why I'm sad to see one of us go, and always hope it's not a permanent withdrawal. There ought to be an icon or registry or something that says of each character "Still here, reading and listening occasionally, even if I'm off busy with other things now..."

Until that comes he is entitled to his thin opinion you stated in your post:

"Mr Robert Prechter. He is calling for a deflationary bust where gold will fall and the value of cash will skyrocket."

Do not let yourself be troubled by the speed of the printing press maybe falling short against the velocity of 'debtberg' destruction. These two are horses in different pastures with no need to race.

How fast can the debtberg destruction run, you wonder? Not fast enough. FedWire is faster. So fast indeed it is ALREADY THERE!

http://www.usace.army.mil/inet/usace-docs/eng-pamphlets/ep870-1-18/entire.pdfFound this while working on another project...This man's work in the phillipines pre-dates the period of time when the Japanese hoarded their "black" gold there...Mc Arthur was also there and apparently knew much about the the "lay of the land" before the Japanese occupation.
The dialogue beginning on page 141 or so is very interesting.

Somewhere in the discussion he speaks of how recovering countries should structure their new currencies but I can't find it now. Very wise perspective as I recall.

There's a third scenario beyond inflation and deflation and one we might well consider:

A combination of the two -- as in the Contagion scenarios that have run consecutively through the Asian and now South American economies. A melange of unemployment, bankruptcies, failed financial institutions, inflation, deflation -- in other words complete economic breakdown a la Argentina.

In this analysis, the very first victim of the Contagion was the United States in the 1970s, early 19080s (which exhibited the same symptoms -- this odd combination of inflation and deflation) with the Asian and South American breakdowns following essentially the same model during the 1990s.

Now it may be coming full circle. . . .

I agree with Doug Casey, who points out that the deflationary scenario depends on the rest of the world maintaining faith in the U.S. dollar as a medium of exchange/reserve currency.

All the political signs point the other way (from Middle Eastern oil producers talking about pricing oil in EUR, to talk about Islamic dinar, to shifts in CB reserves, and informal evidence that the Euro is gaining share in the black market).

Once the US bond market has completed what appears to be a blow-off top(say 10-year yielding 3% or so), you have to assume ferocious rallies in equity markets or there will be no fundamental case for any foreign investor keeping any funds in US$.

All this deflation talk seems to me to be nothing more than illusion on the part of US economists (whether conscious or not) that the dollar is an absolute measure of value.

This is redolent of 1971 - when Nixon moved off the gold standard, convinced that Japanese/German complaints about exchange rates were nothing more than self-serving whingeing and that there was really nothing fundamentally wrong with US policy. Everyone knows what happened next.

I don't mean to launch into an anti-American rant, but successive American governments seem incapable of understanding why they need to respect the rules of the international economy and how they could possibly be doing anything wrong. My reading of history is that they have learnt nothing in the last 30 years.

Isn't inflation/deflation combined what we currently have? I see raging inflation in domestic-based product and service. Insurance (health, liability,auto and property) , taxes, fuel costs, food are going up double digits yet fire sales exist on glutted corporate planes, durables, electronics and anything imported made from slave wages. The UPC scanners so prevalent today at most stores mask the steady march of day to day inflation. Only pricing at the gas pumps remain as vestiges of when you could see inflation on a daily basis. There will always be products that collapse in price if non- essential or over produced. I don't think that should be confused with inflation which is debasement of money supply induced. The only way gold would collapse if it were truly undesired. That seems implausable and in light of M-3 explosion impossible. Prechter wave counts showing gold collapse seem out of touch. Gold is not another widget, it is a proxy for the fiat masquerading as money. When my health insurance premium declines 70% is when I'll believe gold could fall to $160. Neither will happen IMO.

Reuters Market News
Bond investor Bill Gross says Dow 5000 looks
fair
Friday September 6, 1:28 pm ET

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Bill Gross, widely considered the world's most
powerful bond investor, said 5000 is a fair level for the Dow Jones industrial
average, and that bonds will "for years to come" be the best performing asset
class.
***
The head of a major bond fund is totally fed up with the Potemkin facade.

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGADOM0GS5D.htmlThe article ends with a qoute that says the ultimate goal will be achieved when Americans are safe & secure. That makes a nice sound bite for the evening news, but at what cost to our freedom(s) will this be accomplished?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020906/financial_japan_insurer_1.htmlReuters Market News
ANALYSIS-
Friday September 6, 5:05 am ET

By Mariko Hayashibara

TOKYO, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Fears are growing about the health of Japanese life insurers as the latest plunge in Tokyo share prices threatens to eat into their capacity to make payouts.

Tokyo's Nikkei stock average (^N225 - News) touched a 19-year low this week. It has lost about 19 percent since March, damaging most insurers' solvency margin ratios, the key gauge of their ability to pay out on policy obligations.

ADVERTISEMENT
The ratio shows the amount of assets held against the risk of large-scale payouts in the event of disasters or a sharp decline in prices of financial products. The authorities can order corrective action if the level falls below 200 percent.

Japan's financial watchdog, the Financial Services Agency (FSA), is not planning to relax requirements.

"At this point, we are not thinking about any measures," an FSA official.

"It's no question that weak stock prices are negative for their business, but I don't think any insurers' solvency margin falls below 200 percent at the current stock price level," the official told Reuters.

Taking the current levels of the Nikkei and broader TOPIX index into account, Brett Hemsley, insurer analyst at Fitch Ratings in Tokyo, said some insurers' solvency margin ratios were likely to have inched close to, or even below, 300 percent.

Analysts consider that a worryingly low level because some insurers have gone insolvent in recent years even though their ratios were above the officially required 200 percent level.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

More trouble in the land of the rising sun.

One big insurance company failure can lead to major banking problems as they are intertwined.

As for the good Bill Gross, his belief that bonds will be the place to land for many years...oh?

How long can the companies that issue the bonds last in a combined inflation and deflationary atmosphere? Recall that there are only THREE AAA rated bonds of all listed currently for sale.

Ten years ago the US boasted 58 AAA rated companies, today there are 8.

Since there is a huge intertwining effect [Derivatives] here as well as in Japan [Real estate] it seems to me that bonds should be the LAST place on put their hard-earned money.

Operative, re: the article you linked that ended with "...the safety and security of our citizens." Animals caged up in our zoos are relatively safe and secure, but I'd be willing to bet (Dr. Doolittle would be helpful here) that 3 out of 4 of 'em ain't too happy about it...the fourth one would most likely be a socialist anyway.

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Features/0,4186,2-8-133_1253791,00.htmlLondon - The gold price could more than treble to US$1�000 per ounce if Western stock markets suffer from a 20-year bear market, according to Hugh Hendry, manager of the Odey Continental European fund.

"I think there are some circumstances where the gold price could go to $1�000. Logically you could construct an argument where the gold price goes up by several times its current value," Hendry said.

...Hendry, a partner at Odey Asset Management, said it was ridiculous that some market commentators think shares will bounce back in the next year or so.

"We've seen the biggest bull market in history, and history demonstrates that the intensity of any bull market is more than matched by the intensity of a bear market. The S&P is on 37 times earnings. Bear markets end when stocks are on six to seven times," he said.

...His bullish outlook on gold is partly due to the fact that many gold mining companies have stopped hedging against a fall in gold prices and are taking a positive view on prices for the first time in many years.

---------(click url for full text)---------

Randy's note: The thing that I found most striking about this article was the candid discussion about the *potential* fate of physical gold in bullion form. Here is is, excerpted in full:
----
However, he is less keen on holding gold bullion, saying that gold bars have been confiscated by governments in the past and this could happen again if a government felt its currency were under threat.

The United States banned private ownership of gold bars from the early 1930s to 1971, when the country got rid of the gold standard so that dollars were no longer backed by gold. France took a similar policy in the early 18th century.

A spokesperson for the World Gold Council said such a move would be unlikely these days as markets move towards further de-regulation.

"You can never anticipate what any government is going to do, but I would think it would be extremely unlikely," she said.
----

As long as congress is in session, you can just never be too certain about anything. That goes for "nationalizing" a mine through special taxation, too. That's why MK and the fine folks at Centennial also caution investors about a prudent diversification WITHIN your gold diversification -- to include the holding of the pre-1933 class of coinage for as long as it can be obtained at near-bullion prices.

Give them a call this afternoon. I know they can help you work these things out to your best benefit and arrive at a diversification plan that fits your needs and your sense of personal style.

R.

If, in fact, the government DID decide that it would be in some manner expedient to ban bullion, and even if they did decide to leave the mines untouched (i.e., no taxation), how on earth would anyone in the market expect the equity value of mining companies to benefit? I mean, who would be buying the mine's newly produces bullion? And at what price? After all, the government would have closed the door on many of their free-market customers. Think about it.

Surely the price of shares in breweries and distilleries didn't skyrocket during the implementation of prohibition?!

If, in fact, bullion were banned, I think it would be far more likely to see the price of pre-1933 coinage soar far and away above the price of the mines -- be they taxed or not.

Just food for thought. You always want to be sure you've considered all sides, and then have portions of your portfolio dedicated to those various contingencies. Sometimes you can kill two birds with one stone.

R.

Jesper Koll Special to The Daily YomiuriStock markets around the world are crashing and a lot of hard-earned financial wealth is being destroyed. Clearly, this is serious business that affects all of our lives. According to one survey, at the end of last year, more than two-thirds of U.S. baby-boomers still thought they could retire within the next two years due to the assumed strong performance of their financial investments. By this summer, another survey finds that more than half of the baby-boomers now expect they will have to work for at least another 10 years before they can afford retirement.

Of course, the exact degree of accuracy of these sorts of surveys can always be disputed, but the basic fact remains: The global stock market drop is destroying wealth and, if sustained, signals a coming reduction in the standard of living.

Japan has been a front-runner in the global wealth destruction game. By my back-of-the-envelope calculation, the current money amount of wealth destroyed by real estate prices falling back to 1982 levels and the stock market plunging to 20-year lows is more than the total wealth destroyed by the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 and the Pacific War combined.

Yet despite this, the country appears to be doing fine. Nowhere is there any meaningful sense of crisis. Yes, unemployment is rising and bankruptcies are creeping higher, but at the same time luxury sales continue to rise, a record number of new condominiums and office buildings are being built and Japan remains unchallenged as the world's largest creditor nation. Wealth destruction--yes. Economic stagnation--yes. Crisis--no!

For an economist there is a very straightforward explanation for this apparent mismatch. Again and again, Japan has borrowed from the future to postpone the inevitable decline in living standards that is forced by the collapse of yen-based asset markets. From my perspective, the worry from this point on is not that some one-off trigger event will spark a real crisis. The worry is that the inevitable paying back of all the money borrowed will increase the drag on growth. After all, rising debt repayments will reduce the economy's ability to invest in the future. Japan's future outlook is clouded by a high probability of stagnation and "muddle through." If the past 10 years are any guide for the future, no one should ever underestimate the capacity of the Japanese people to tolerate and endure stagnation.

What could spark a real crisis in Japan? I think there are three main risk scenarios: capital flight, a current account deficit, and hyperinflation.

Capital flight is the most serious of all the risk scenarios. Japan has a massive savings surplus and, at the same time, has no non-yen currency liabilities. Japan owes nothing to the world and, de facto, all its debt is funded by its own savers. This works fine as long as Japanese savers have full trust in their currency and the institutions that intermediate the flow of savings into investments.

If this trust breaks, savers would rush to convert out of yen-savings instruments and into dollar or euro assets. It would be like pulling out the carpet from underneath the financial system, similar to what happened in Argentina recently or Indonesia a couple of years ago.

To be sure, the probability of accelerated capital flight is extremely low. For example, even with 10 years of a banking crisis in place, private bank deposits are still growing at a steady 2 percent to 3 percent pace. While there is some concern over smaller regional banks, the overall banking system is flush with liquidity and sees steady increases in deposit funding.

As long as this persists, the banks will use these funds to buy government bonds, with the increased powers of regulatory authorities openly encouraging stepped-up purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and other yen assets. A domestic "buyers strike" for JGBs is thus kept in check. More importantly, Japanese savers have a very high home currency preference. They live their lives here, have yen mortgages to pay back and have an absolutely overwhelming desire to retire here in Japan.

The second risk scenario is Japan loosing its status as a creditor nation. If Japan started running a current account deficit, then foreigners would become the marginal buyer of yen assets in general, yen government debt in particular. Foreigners buy yen assets against non-yen liabilities. So they will inevitably demand a currency risk premium before buying more JGBs. In addition, foreign investors will demand a credit risk premium because for them the credit rating by the global rating agencies actually matters.

So a current account deficit would result in a temporary "buyers strike," pushing up bond yields. Domestic portfolios would suffer capital loss and, more importantly, Japanese corporations would see an increase in their own cost of debt, which would inevitably push many of them into bankruptcy.

Hyperinflation seems like the most far-fetched of all the risks. After all, deflation has been with Japan for almost three years and is still accelerating. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, hyperinflation risks are actually rising in Japan. The reason is the more and more aggressive monetization of public debt by the Bank of Japan. This year, about 40 percent of the government's new borrowing will be purchased by the central bank--up from barely 15 percent last year.

Why does this raise inflation risks? For an economist, inflation stems from too much money chasing too few goods. With the Bank of Japan raising aggressively the amount of money in circulation--they buy the JGBs with money printed--sooner or later there will be more money chasing too few goods.

Right now, the combination of massive excess capacity and idle showrooms, together with consumers' reluctance to spend, makes it seem far-fetched to talk about too much money chasing too few goods. Indeed, the only exceptions where this is true seems to be maybe too much money chasing too few safety deposit boxes and futons. However, this can change very fast and very unpredictably.

Of course, there are other country risk scenarios that one could consider, like a trade war with Asia, oil prices at 60 dollars per barrel, or a terrorist attack on Japan.

But from an economist's perspective, these three are the main ones. Indeed, the most likely one may very well be hyperinflation, at least according to economic textbook. The usual problem is, unfortunately, that economists can tell you how it will happen, but not when. But one thing is for sure--Japan's standard of living has a high probability of declining. Hyperinflation would just be the most extreme form of this as it cuts the purchasing power of the peoples wealth very sharply, very quickly.
==
Koll is chief economist of Merrill Lynch Japan.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Aside from a colossal conflict of interest, this Merrill guy displays high skill in the art of denial. He's like the lung cancer patient seeing his abnormal chest film filled with white, softball sized tumors and suggesting that the x-ray tech mislabeled the id card. "There's no crisis" "Wealth destruction-yes but crisis?-no".

The Japanese know they are being taken to the cleaners. The Nomura door-to-door sales people are doused with dirty dishwater thrown by irate house wives.

For this mope to suggest that the mass hypnosis of continued equity ownership and the Japanese bubble mind-set will continue is more evidence of the huge brokerage house disconnect from reality.

Any perception of world in-stability, always resulted into a dollar-rush for safety. It was for the first time, on 9/11, that fear resulted in a dollar-flight. The same is happening and further expected with mounting tensions on Iraq and ME. What has changed, is the existance of the euro, more suitable as an alternative to the previous Swiss franc. But this windfall interest for the euro is not going to solve the globe's economic contraction and therefore looked at with mixed feelings. A dollar flight into the euro, not accompagnied with a proportionate growing/expanding Euroland economy. Job for both US/EMU central banks to manage the exchange rate with brakes.

But can they win against panicking financiers, commanding the gambling fiat flows in their relentless search for profit ?

During the initial stages of the coming war, w'll see moves in the ***paper** price for Gold with relatively slow uptake of physical. If the US is succesfull in a blitzkrieg...the paper-move will quickly settle down (unwind) and POG might be tamed once more. If full scale resistant terror is able to turn a blitzkrieg into a dragging conflict of long duration...more physical uptake might accumulate critical mass with a prolonged flight out of the dollar. I think that this scenario is the most plausable. Russia is well aware that the US has colonizing ambitions on big parts of its resourcefull territories and will therefore complicate things in favor of the ME. China's attitude is unknown to me. Maybe someone else has more insights on their (China) stance towards this ME situation.

Anyhow, a US occupation of Iraqi oil-reserves will be met by much higher POO (35$ plus) for a prolonged period and entitled as another act/expression of terror against the westerenized part of the world. Short : A high degree of escalation !

We could even witness a relative strong dollar (around euro parity) with rising POG. And the dollar linked to the succes or failure of the US' war-actions. Up until the financial communities start to agree that no economic recovery is possible within a reasonable timeframe.

The US has been considered the globe's economic engine for the past decade. What if this same globe discovers that it is all over and blames it on the recklesness of the US instead of on ME terror ? Very difficult and risky times ahead imvho.

http://www.pimco.com/Just click on Gross's latest. Sector, Bill Gross has a lot of money on the line. There are real world consequences for how he manages his money. His best effort perspective says much about how the bond fund managers expect to traverse the economic labyrinthe. A real captain running a real ship cannot throw his arms akimbo and abandon the ship, no matter how stormy the seas that lie ahead. Well.... many might retire before tshtf.................

http://allafrica.com/stories/200209060288.htmlHere's the latest news in this ongoing scheme -- a neat twist on the old post-London Gold Pool notion -- twisted insofar as the goverment is paying a tier price that is consistently HIGHER than the "market" tier. Something I often say on the street can be applied to the Reserve Bank in this case -- they "know what time it is".

Excerpts:

The Herald (Harare) September 6, 2002 --

GOLD panners who are being integrated into the formal sector may benefit from the gold floor price support scheme if recommendations made by the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development sail through.

The gold floor price introduced by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe last year allows producers to earn a price higher than the ruling international price of the precious metal."It is proposed that, as a minimum, the price paid to small-scale miners be the same as that paid to producers who benefit from the gold floor price scheme.

"The business risk for gold trading should be transferred to the RBZ or any of its nominated agencies."

-----------

That "risk"...is in the eye of the beholder.

R.

http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/06/markets/oil/index.htmNEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil prices surged to their highest levels in a year and gold moved to fresh six-week highs in European trading Friday amid fears that a full scale attack was imminent against Iraq and as the first anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks approached.

"The war drums are pushing the price (of oil) higher, but the global market has been tightening since the second quarter and this will continue into the winter,'' said Leo Drollas of the Center for Global Energy Studies in London.

He predicted the Brent price would rise to near $30 a barrel by the end of the year even without an attack. Tough output curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have coincided with a sharp recovery in global oil demand, which analysts expect to accelerate by the end of the year.

"Gold looks set to be supported and set to move higher as we approach the anniversary of the 9/11 attack on the U.S. and the expectations of an attack on Iraq intensify," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.

Gold's latest gains put the metal 17 percent higher than at this time last year, making it one of the strongest performing financial assets. �

-------(see url for more)--------

Lock in prices and get your gold order in the pipeline today -- because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

R.

I'd like to add another question on this subject: till now at least, I was a believer in the little equation . Sorry for the probably improper wording, but I'm translating from french :^D
Since the "amount of money" in circulation includes cash and credit, am I wrong in believing that a collapse of the "mountain of debt" would shrink the monetary aggregates - and therefore trigger deflation ? Not to speak about the probable impact on velocity ?

@ ******* Desk
SEPTEMBER 4
In course of the current year Russia's
Saving Bank
(Sberbank) increased its reserves 10,5
of gold and 11
tons of silver


***
The Russian Central Bank is not the
only institution accumulating physical
stocks of gold and silver in Russia? Is
the practice more widespread and did
the directive come from Putin himself a
la the creation of a Russian gold coin
last summer, the what was it $13,000
gold coin the Russians are marketing
now.

Yes, price deflation would be the good theory IF there were a collapse of the mountain of debt. Velocity is impotent in the equation. It is derived by economists with time to spare after they have measured the prices and amounts that matter. The notion of velocity is no cause to any effect. Have you spend a dollar faster because it came to you as a hot potato? Did you read that person's mind? One does never know how long another held his money..."did this cash come from the top of the barrel or pulled from the old bottom of the stack?"

The price deflation theory is for thought only. You will not see it in practice. There is nothing in the relevant nature of these times that will allow this mountain to grow anywhere but up. If the mountain collapses, many banks will fall with it. Where is the political will to let this happen, when the prop of liquidity is so easily crafted?

Purchasing power will take a haircut. The banks will remain standing. Inflation is the order of business until nature takes a holiday.

Fulke Greville, Baron Brooke [1554-1628]

-c. 1609-

Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound.

What meaneth nature by these diverse laws?
Passion and reason self-division cause.

It is the mark or majesty of power
To make offences that it may forgive;
Nature herself doth her own self deflower,
To hate those errors she herself doth give.

For how should man think that he may not do,
If nature did not fail and punish too?

Tyrant to others, to herself unjust,
Only commands things difficult and hard,
Forbids us all things which it knows is lust,
Makes easy pains, unpossible reward.

If nature did not take delight in blood,
She would have made more easy ways to good.

We that are bound by vows and by promotion,
With pomp of holy sacrifice and rites,
To teach belief in good and still devotion,
To preach of heaven's wonders and delights:

Yet when each of us in his own heart looks
He finds the God there far unlike his books.

Why is the question "Which one"? Why not both? Or a mixture like surf and turf.

Haven't we recently seen stock prices deflating on the Cow, Nasdog and S+P while tangible goods (necessities of modern life) are increasing in price. Corn, soybeans, cocoa, OJ, sugar, gold, oil, especially wheat and now even coffee are trading for higher prices. Wheat is now over $4/bushel and climbing. The CRB is projecting higher prices which will probably lift all commodities. If this continues there will be no doubt about inflation in commodity terms. How then will inflation numbers be doctored to show none? Will the average loss on the typical 401K be factored in to lower the index? There was some discussion a while ago about an intended effort (I hate the word conspiracy) to keep ALL commodity prices low. Hey guys, if there's not enough wheat then there's nothing short of price controls that's going to lower prices.

Can't we see equity prices deflate while the price of anything grown, manufactured or mined goes up. Perhaps during this time real estate prices will do both, up and then down.
They'll be no holding POG or POS down if the CRB blows wide open the lie of "no inflation". Thoughts?
Hey, hey and hey! It's Friday.
Happy weekend!!
Rich

Re; DeflationI belive your ideas are correct. Here is my answer to the question (when I an asked). How much do you think an automobile, a house, or new funiture for the home would cost if you must pay cash for it. My guess is 20% to 50% less than credit prices. Just my thoughts, live small.
RJ

UPDATE #7 (as of FRIDAY 17:17 Denver time 9/6/02)
===
FYI ------HIGH, Low and Settlement Price of GC2Z on:
9/3/02 $315.9 $314.1 $315.0s
9/4/02 $317.1 $313.8 $316.5s Change + $1.5
9/5/02 $320.8 $318.1 $319.8s Change + $3.3
9/6/02 $322.9 $319.8 $321.4s Change + $1.6

===

$$$$ 398.6 $$$$ Believer (09/04/02; 18:22:46MT - msg#: 84358)

$$$$ 375.0 $$$$ Henri (09/04/02; 10:58:18MT - msg#: 84326)

$$$$ 362.3 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (09/04/02; 05:21:24MT - msg#: 84304)

$$$$ 354.4 $$$$ perform (09/04/02; 07:34:49MT - msg#: 84313)

$$$$ 353.4 $$$$ darkhorse (09/03/02; 20:56:04MT - msg#: 84280)

$$$$ 349.2 $$$$ mdgc (09/05/02; 15:45:42MT - msg#: 84427)

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Socrates964 (09/04/02; 16:11:50MT - msg#: 84344)

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (09/04/02; 21:38:27MT - msg#: 84381)

$$$$ 342.5 $$$$ gvc (09/03/02; 17:08:12MT - msg#: 84255)

$$$$ 341.7 $$$$ old gold (09/04/02; 11:40:02MT - msg#: 84330)

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (09/03/02; 22:36:21MT - msg#: 84289)

$$$$ 335.4 $$$$ Roger The Shrubber (09/05/02; 08:18:47MT - msg#: 84404)

$$$$ 334.7 $$$$ GoldCoaster (09/05/02; 21:29:56MT - msg#: 84455)

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ Speedy (09/04/02; 19:15:01MT - msg#: 84366)

$$$$ 333.4 $$$$ Slowman (09/04/02; 20:10:11MT - msg#: 84370)

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (09/04/02; 19:11:32MT - msg#: 84365)

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ misetich (09/04/02; 05:28:30MT - msg#: 84307)
$$$$ 331.2 $$$$ Pippin (09/04/02; 12:50:09MT - msg#: 84335)

$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/04/02; 11:36:15MT - msg#: 84329)

$$$$ 329.3 $$$$ mikal (09/04/02; 17:08:29MT - msg#: 84349)
$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ The Hoople (09/04/02; 12:04:30MT - msg#: 84332)

$$$$ 328.5 $$$$ steady (09/03/02; 20:14:41MT - msg#: 84272)

$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/04/02; 11:15:13MT - msg#: 84327)

$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Trapper (09/03/02; 20:12:26MT - msg#: 84271)

$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ luckypierre (09/03/02; 15:20:51MT - msg#: 84244)

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (09/03/02; 18:33:51MT - msg#: 84261)

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ White Rose (09/06/02; 08:23:51MT - msg#: 84503)

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ Galerider (09/03/02; 20:53:27MT - msg#: 84279)

$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ The CoinGuy (09/04/02; 13:00:07MT - msg#: 84338)

$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Rock (09/04/02; 12:19:18MT - msg#: 84334)

$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (09/04/02; 05:02:31MT - msg#: 84302)

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Boxman (9/4/02; 04:27:17MT - msg#: 84301)

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ a nation of one (09/03/02; 13:55:53MT - msg#: 84229)

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Tommy P (09/03/02; 14:33:23MT - msg#: 84233)

$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (09/04/02; 21:59:49MT - msg#: 84382)

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ balzac (09/04/02; 17:22:15MT - msg#: 84353)

$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ The Knife (09/04/02; 16:30:43MT - msg#: 84345)
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (09/03/02; 12:29:20MT - msg#: 84221)

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (09/03/02; 13:18:00MT - msg#: 84226)

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (09/03/02; 15:06:26MT - msg#: 84240)

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - msg#: 84257)
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ slingshot (09/03/02; 16:57:17MT - msg#: 84254)
$$$$ 319.6 $$$$ NTgeo (9/6/02; 01:56:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 84477)
$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ davefinger (09/03/02; 14:52:14MT - msg#: 84235)
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ koala bear (9/4/02; 04:08:54MT - msg#: 84299)

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ Bulldog (09/03/02; 21:53:40MT - msg#: 84288)

$$$$ 318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)

$$$$ 317.9 $$$$ VanRip (09/05/02; 12:20:50MT - msg#: 84415)

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Artie Farkle (09/04/02; 20:02:53MT - msg#: 84369)

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ Tevye (09/04/02; 08:02:40MT - msg#: 84316)

$$$$ 315.5 $$$$ Christian (9/6/02; 00:11:42MT - msg#: 84471)

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (09/04/02; 07:34:44MT - msg#: 84312)

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Frosty (09/03/02; 18:59:09MT - msg#: 84265)

$$$$ 313.3 $$$$ Woodie (09/03/02; 23:41:11MT - msg#: 84291)

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ SilverHoard (09/04/02; 17:01:10MT - msg#: 84347)

$$$$ 311.4 $$$$ De Ronin (09/04/02; 12:16:42MT - msg#: 84333)

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ Noble1 (09/04/02; 20:25:58MT - msg#: 84371)

$$$$ 308,0 $$$$ Trurl (09/05/02; 09:33:57MT - msg#: 84408)

$$$$ 295.5 $$$$ Topaz (9/5/02; 01:41:33MT - msg#: 84389)

===
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
===
"WHAT IS THAT" Sir Balzac is saying ?
He thought that the Contest was to end on THIS Friday's SETTLEMENT ?
NAW !
<;-)

nothing at all is going to happen on 9/11/02. Nothing!

The next trading day, gold and oil will fall quite sharply, as the world breathes a collective sigh of relief. Gold will then resume its slow uphill battle.

A Jewish friend in N.Y., who is well connected, informed me that he had had a talk with an important personage, in his words, "higher than the President" (!) who assured him there would be "no war against Iraq". That this "war on Iraq" is all for public consumption in the U.S., not for real.

Is this believable? We shall have to wait and see. I sense that Pres. Bush has lost the moment for waging war; the public has become fed up with all the talk.

For what it's worth.

Sierra

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1222Belgium's Financial Times and CNBC Europe
let people know that the gold price is being
manipulated:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1222

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

I wonder if he was canned to be replaced with chearleaders due to his 5000 DOW article today. If so, all I can say is amazing. Actually, as I watched the show I realized that I was watching what appeared to be a half hour of old tape put together. They must have been scrambling to find anything to replace Gross's time.

Also, on Kudlow's Bulls vs Bears, there were no bearish quests asked to show up...and Kudlow actually slammed Gross at the end of the show stating that Gross doesn't understand what growth is anyway.

Something tells me Something reacted in me saying I certainly hope you are right about nothing happening on 9/11. Then all that will be needed is a little political spin (resumption of unhindered inspections?) so that George W can drop the issue while looking good. Or, the government can declare that all weapons, held by anyone, are potential threats (whether used or not) and declare war on the world and all U.S. gun owners registered or not. **
Gold and silver will do just fine even without wholesale man-made death. **
I received an e-mail from the CPM research folks today, my copy of the 2002 Silver Survey has been entrusted to the U.S. Postal Service. It's no longer brandy new so they dropped the price from $175 to 150. So, there we have have the answer- deflation from outrageously overpriced to merely grossly overpriced. They have some other publications, one for gold and one for silver- $3500 each!! I guess these must have the exact dates of the coming limit moves for our metals, or at least the winning lottery numbers for next month.

If there is anything in the Survey that hasn't already become known, I'll pass it along. I just want to take my study back to primary sources so I ponied up the 150.
Happy weekend
Rich

Your question:

"Isn't inflation/deflation combined what we currently have?"

My response:

Yes. That's an important observation, Hoople. What you describe is the "economics" we live in a fiat-based economy. Books have been written about it, but it really comes down nothing more complicated than that. Just as a virus can exist at low grade within a host until such time as the defenses are weakened to the point that the virus comes to full fruition, so are we running a low grade economic fever at the moment in the United States -- a low grade fever on the verge of becoming full blown disease. What will it take to come to full bloom? Attempting to discover those trigger mechanisms is what an information exchange prototype like this forum is all about. Keep in mind that Argentina at one time operated under what might have been described as a low grade fever. Now look what has happened. . . . . And it didn't take long once the wheels fell off.

When the Contagion came to full fruition in Asia and South America, it manifested all the preconditions of the lesser disease only on a greater scale. The stock markets didn't just adjust downward, they collapsed. The inflation rate didn't just rise, it skyrocketed. The unemployment rate and bankruptcies didn't just worsen, they went off the charts. And so on. . . . Do you remember the old Misery Index of the 1970s -- inflation and the unemployment rate added together -- made famous by Ronald Reagan? I would be willing to bet that it will not be long until it becomes a part of our daily discussion once again.

Thanks, Hoople. I wish you would play a greater role here. We would all benefit from your knowledge and understandings.

I believe in owning physical Gold for purely selfish
monetary reasons. I truly believe the POG is being
"managed", "controled", "manipulated", "supressed",
or any other number of adjectives (?) you want to use
to explain it's current price. Some day in the future
this losing proposition will fail and the POG will
explode to the upside even further than many who
frequent this form think possible. Furthermore, I
guess the low price I've entered because after 09/11/02 passes with no catastrophy happening TPTB will hammer the POG once again, only to postpone the inevitable.

Good Luck to all,

HopeingII

MUDR
My guess is $327.6 is based on a guess about world tensions and the general trend. The POG will likely be fought all the way up to our highest expectations,

New as I am to the forum it gives me great pleasure to find a "Community" of cyber brothers and sisters who are in touch with the realities of the geopolitics of our age...and it is this mysterious, elusive precious metal that brings us together...and it is the same metal that links us to geopoliticians, Knights, Ladies, Kings, Princes, Queens and all others of so many ages across human history. I was involved in the mid-seventies by virtue of an acquaintance with one of Bunker Hunt's advisors..and I rode their coattails in silver. I panned some around Charlotte, NC...the main street of Charlotte is built on top of the extensive gold mine which is the reason that Charlotte is there at all...shut down when the shafts filled up with water from numerous creeks flowing through...POG then was about $20/oz so it was not cost efficient to pump the water out to mine...in the rise of the late 70's there was some thought to pump and mine...some felt that the mother vein had never been found...but, for me, there was something magical that I could get into those creeks downstream from the mine and come away with yellow...Maybe that's some of the mystique...there's some problem with printing one's own currency, I'm told...but the metal will be here when the printing presses are a pile of rust...thanx all

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

What has surfaced this week sending stock prices lower is emerging evidence that the economy is heading back into recession. Sales at retailers such as Wal-Mart, Sears, and Kohl's are starting to fall. They are still growing, but at much lower rates of growth. Most of these stores are starting to see a moving downtrend. This month has been important in that back-to-school sales usually give retailers a lift. If sales don't pick up the rest of the month, we could be in big trouble. After all, there is a limit to how much consumers can continue to borrow given that they are up to their eyeballs in every imaginable kind of debt from credit cards, installment debt, mortgages, school loans, to margin debt.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rise as stockpiles continue to fall in the US. The American Petroleum Institute reported this week that oil stockpiles fell to an 18 month low. This is creating worries that the US is vulnerable to a disruption of supply ahead of a major war. During the last war, US stockpiles of oil were close to 400 million barrels. Currently they have fallen to 298.9 million barrels. Oil inventories have dropped 7.2% since June. Oil prices have been hovering close to or over $30 a barrel for more than a month. The tightening of supplies, the threat of an unexpected terrorist event, and the advent of a coming war with Iraq, when added together don't bode well for the economy.


Black Blade: "Interesting Times"

http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/06/markets/pimco/index.htm

Influential Pimco bond manager sees stocks moving lower before recovery begins.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The manager of the world's biggest bond mutual fund predicts the Dow Jones industrial average could fall another 40 percent to 5,000 because the stock market remains stubbornly expensive despite a more than two-year decline. "The market needs to yield close to 3.5 percent before it approaches fair value, and that means Dow 5,000," Gross wrote in his monthly commentary. "Companies have been diluting your equity via stock options claiming that management needs incentives of millions of dollars just to get up in the morning and come in to work," Gross wrote. "Then they pick you off by trading on insider information, selling shares before the bad news hits and you have a chance to get out."


Black Blade: The stock market is grossly overvalued and all indications are that it will get worse. Companies stopped paying dividends as their executives claimed that they could do more with the payout than the shareholder. At least dividends can't be faked like corporate balance sheets.

http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/06/news/companies/welch_ge/index.htm

Court filings made by Jane Welch describe benefits GE continues to provide for its former CEO.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Divorce papers filed by the wife of Jack Welch Jr., the former CEO of General Electric, allege that GE covered living costs for the couple while he was working for the company and will continue to cover him for the rest of his life -- disclosures the firm never alluded to, an attorney for Jane Welch confirmed with CNNfn on Friday. The divorce papers filed by Jane Welch detail her husband's use of an $80,000 per month Manhattan apartment owned by the company, court-side seats to the New York Knicks and U.S. Open, seating at Wimbledon, box seats at Red Sox and Yankees baseball games, country club fees, security services and restaurant bills, according to the Times. In her filing, Jane Welch describes $126,820 per month in living costs, but states she is unable to put a value on the items covered by the GE perks or how much Jack Welch may contribute to those, the Times reported. For an example, she provided an assessment of the use of GE's Boeing 737 jet, which is valued at $291,869 per month, or $3.5 million a year, according to the Times.


Black Blade: Pretty good scam. I notice that this was not found in an SEC filing but shareholders had to find out through a divorce court filings. Old Jack musta had some good damaging dirt on the GE board members to blackmail them for this deal. It appears that there is a lot of "pillage and plunder" going on at GE. Hmmm�

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1031119106484&p=1012571727207

Snippit:

The number of new power generation projects that have been tabled or cancelled in the US during the past two years has risen dramatically. According to data compiled by Platts NEWGen database group, 90,000MW have been tabled and 86,000MW cancelled from the beginning of 2000 to the end of July 2002. In 2001 alone, 60,405MW were tabled and 44,457MW were cancelled. "Companies are rethinking new generation strategies as power prices drop, financing becomes more difficult to nail down and debt ratings are slashed," said the company.


Black Blade: Utes and power generators can't get financing to build power plants as their debt ratings get trashed. In the end, as long as the US remains in an economic depression and the weather remains moderate there won't be much of a problem. If the weather turns cold, the US emerges from economic depression, or worse � both, then those shelved plans for new power plants will come back to haunt America in spades.

A collection of a few recent reports:

German police said on Friday they had arrested a 24-year-old Turkish national and his 23-year-old German-American girlfriend in possession of explosives, and a newspaper reported he was suspected of planning an attack on U.S. installations. "We cannot rule out that sleeper agents live even here in Germany or in Europe or elsewhere," Ulrich Kersten, the head of Germany's Federal Crime Agency, said this week. "What we know for sure is that in Europe and in Germany there are people who are ready to commit violence in a jihad."

In Britain, the head of Scotland Yard's anti-terrorist unit also warned of possible attacks, saying lone bombers and gunmen unconnected to Al Qaeda could use Wednesday's anniversary as a world stage for their causes and strike in Britain. "We shouldn't underestimate these individuals. An individual is not incapable of causing serious impact and that is something we are alert to. Our intention is to enhance the deterrent," said Scotland Yard's David Veness.

In Paris, Roland Jacquard, director of the International Observatory on Terrorism and a consultant to the French government, estimated it would take between a year and 16 months after the Sept. 11 attacks for Al Qaeda to prepare for another operation. "It's likely the organization will be ready to make an attack at the end of the year or the beginning of next year," said Jacquard, who has written a biography of bin Laden.

Intelligence on Iraq that the Bush administration will present to Congress includes information on how dangerously close Saddam Hussein has come to developing a nuclear weapon. There is also new information indicating that Iraq has developed new methods of chemical- and biological-weapon delivery, and also of contact between Baghdad and Al Qaeda before and after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.


Black Blade: The pressure is on as the US gears up for war and unleashes aircraft for air strikes in Iraq to soften up targets before invasion. Meanwhile terrorists are intercepted and explosives are found.

Gold is important to me because it now represents 50+ % of my investment/asset portfolio.While it is extremely painful to follow on a day to day basis I feel secure with the placing of this bet. Buy low --- sell high --not very often does an opportunity like this come up--where all the marbles are stacked in our favour! Supply/ price/ economic meltdown/ etc.

May I say what a pleasant turn of phrase you bring to the Table Sir, balm for the Eyes.
The inflation argument continues to be refuted day after day as, against all expectations, the US$ holds it's preminent position atop the Global Fiat mountain.
Justified or otherwise Warmongering - $ positive.
Oil price increases - $ positive.
Big Float not coming ashore any time soon - ditto.
Teasuries inflation - ditto.
What (at this point in time) can you identify as a price INflationary trigger when all I see/hear are examples to the contrary?

Thanks for your input.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
I have been trying to sort out this mess concerning the Bureau of Labor statistics concerning the "seasonally" adjusted employment numbers. The BLS makes the claim that the jobless rate fell from 5.9% to 5.7% with the addition of 39,000 jobs. Many expected to see a slight increase to 6% (even with the "Seasonal" adjustment fudge factor). It still did not make sense until a closer inspection revealed some curious facts that also beg the question: Is the government starting a "Depression" era style jobs program? We are expected to accept at face value that 39,000 new jobs were created last month.

Manufacturing jobs fell by 68,000 while revisions increased the July non-farm payroll number from 6,000 to 67,000. That's one hell of an oversight. Also there was a loss of 55,000 retail jobs that were partially offset by 34,000 new construction jobs (real estate bubble?). So how and where did the increase in jobs come from? Well get this - the government added 41,000 new jobs in August. Government employment rose by 41,000 over the month. The federal government added 20,000 jobs, mostly reflecting an increase in the number of federal security personnel at airports.

Perhaps this is a somewhat covert attempt to create "busy work" jobs for unemployed Americans similar to what President Franklin D. Roosevelt put into action in 1933. For example the Civilian Conservation Corps (C.C.C.) was established in March of 1933 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt for the purpose of performing emergency conservation work, and helping to preserve the nation's heritage. This opportunity also offered employment to thousands of unemployed young men during the Great Depression. In short, a government sponsored workfare program. There were many other programs as well that included several public works projects such as the Hoover Dam.

Whatever the type of work and for whatever reason, the drop in the unemployment rate was in large measure due to jobs created by the government and not the private sector. This means that the unemployment picture has not really changed much at all. If anything it has actually deteriorated some when the newly created workfare jobs are accounted for.

About 1.4 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in August, essentially the same as a year earlier. These individuals reported that they wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they had not actively searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers was 372,000 in August. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. Obviously the unemployment rate is much greater than the government lets on.

- Black Blade

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Market+Summary&content_idx=15170"... In a report issued by the U.S. comptroller of the currency, the total amount of derivatives in U.S. insured commercial bank portfolios rose by $3.8 trillion in the second quarter, to $50.1 trillion...."

----------------------------------------------

GB: These numbers are incredible...

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=15165"... None of the foregoing is arguing that Citigroup, JPMorgan or anyone else will be rendered insolvent by these issues, merely that there is potential for very material liability. As JPMorgan itself states in its 10Q, "[we] cannot state with confidence what the eventual outcome of [the] pending matters will be, or predict with confidence what the eventual loss . . . will be". One can reasonably conclude that the possibility of insolvency, although remote, is real. Most of the companies that filed for bankruptcy due to asbestos litigation insisted until near the date of filing that their exposure to the litigation was manageable and not material to their financial health. However these companies, after losing a few key cases, were inundated with claims and realized the only answer was to seek the protection of bankruptcy court. It is possible that a similar situation could unfold with respect to the banks. Particularly if there is a key court ruling that interprets the law in favor of the plaintiffs. Of course national banks cannot file for bankruptcy. If Citigroup or JPMorgan were faced with insolvency, it would be taken over by the FDIC, which would operate it in receivership.

This leads to a discussion of the "too big to fail" doctrine with respect to these potential legal issues. The prevailing opinion is that Citigroup and JPMorgan in particular are too crucial to the financial system for the "authorities" to let the worst-case scenario described above occur. This may be true, but the question is how and at what point can they do anything to prevent it? There are and will be a variety of legal proceedings occurring in bankruptcy court, different federal courts and different state courts. As mentioned earlier, the plaintiffs� law firms are powerful organizations that will have different goals and agendas depending on who their client is, whom they are suing, what the facts of the particular case are and where the litigation is taking place. The plaintiffs are diverse parties from individual shareholders and bondholders to public pension funds and bankruptcy court creditors committees. In many cases, the plaintiffs� are likely to believe they have a fiduciary duty to pursue the banks on behalf of their principals. The notion that all this could be shut down by a regulator outside of insolvency proceedings without an act of Congress is fanciful. While an act of Congress could do the trick, given the prevailing climate, a bill to save the banks and brokers from liability for the equity bubble is not likely to be politically feasible.

Where does this leave us? As noted by Doug Noland repeatedly on these pages, the United States economy is at great risk due to the past two decades of dramatic credit expansion. Due to the central role Citigroup, JPMorgan and others play in that system, the economy is at further risk from the other dramatic expansion that occurred over the past few decades � the expansion of the plaintiffs� bar and the vulnerability of defendants to it..."

Gold represents true value over the ages. All else is an illusion.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXm9sxUpSmFwYW4nSnip:

By Tomoko Yamazaki


Tokyo, Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's latest plan to revive its economy, including the use of public pension funds to shore up the stock market, may not be enough to fix a decade-long slump, investors said.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party wants to use pension money to buy exchange-traded funds, which represent groups of stocks. Purchases may total 3 trillion yen ($25 billion), the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported today, without citing anyone.

``The amount is quite significant if it is indeed carried out,'' said Dai Nishiyama, a senior fund manager at SG Yamaichi Asset Management Co., which has $22 billion in investments. ``Still, none of the plans being talked about seem to be aggressive enough to change the situation.''

********
Misetich

Government spending, bailouts, deficits is growing - lets call it big governments bull market

Got gold?

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/07/business/07AUTO.htmlSnip:

By DANNY HAKIM

DETROIT, Sept. 6 � A new report by Goldman Sachs is sharply pessimistic about the robustness of auto sales and the underlying health of the Big Three.

The report contends that two main factors that have propped up sales in the short term � huge incentives and extra consumer cash coming from a boom in home mortgage refinancing � cannot be sustained.

The report, titled "After the Automotive Boom," suggests that if auto sales remain strong, the financing operations of the Big Three will have difficulty generating enough equity to continue to support deals like zero percent financing.
"The boom depends on access to capital," according to the report, because more generous loans cannot be extended to car buyers without it. "The Big Three cannot continue to support the boom indefinitely," the report added. It was written by Gary R. Lapidus, an auto analyst, and Jan Hatzius, an economist.

On the other hand, if financing deals are cut back, or consumers tire of them � and home mortgage refinancing falls off, as expected � auto sales, and corporate earnings, could fall sharply. Such an economic environment could also lead to lower-than-forecast returns in the companies' huge pension funds and a cash squeeze.

..........

If the Big Three were unconstrained by labor contracts, they would close several plants and lay off workers in an effort to become more efficient and to compete better with much more profitable rivals like Toyota and Honda, the manager said. Such actions would help the companies restructure and free more capital to spend on product development, but their labor contracts prevent them from doing so.

The money manager said that because he thought labor concessions would be highly unlikely and that the companies would eventually have difficulty raising money, he was selling shares of G.M. and Ford short, meaning he is betting that their stock price will decrease.

"The bond markets will eventually figure this out," he said. "You can't just keep pouring money into this thing."

**********
Misetich

Housing and automotive industry are carrying the US economy - Boom and busts are part of the cycle -

Got gold?

Thanks Misetich for that story. If the ruling Liberal Democratic Party idea for pension funds is funnelled into stocks, it would have to be part of a much grander scheme to achieve stability of any kind. A few of the obstacles: the temptation to finally bail out as stocks react upwards, rising energy and basic input prices, poor cash flow, credit downgrades, shifts into hard assets!

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/07/business/07AMER.htmlSnip:
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

ALLAS, Sept. 6 (AP) � American Airlines needs to cut its permanent cost structure by at least $3 billion a year, or more than 15 percent, over the next several years, its chairman and chief executive, Donald J. Carty, said today.
********
Misetich

Lets not forget the effect of higher fuel costs -ouch!

Got gold?

I've just finished reading Hamilton's weekly article which asks, indirectly, the same question about seeing the price increase effects of monetary inflation that I think you just asked.
Hamilton was looking at the rate of return from bonds and decided that money flow out of stocks into bonds has inflated bonds thus lowering yields. This force, he opines, is stronger than the threat of inflation which should raise yields. After finishing, I wondered about asking him what might stop or interrupt this stocks-to-bonds and bonds-to-stocks money flow. I'm interested as he seems to think that this closed money flow system may be channeling money in such a way as to mask, negate or postpone the inflation of prices (and long bond yields) that we might otherwise see.
He claims this flow is blocking the trigger that we seek. He very correctly (imho) sees this as one result of the concept among big money managers that investments are limited to stocks or bonds. There is nothing else. We all know what a miniscule amount of that money flow, invested in gold or silver would do to prices. I'm hoping that these blind fools will not be able to overlook the CRB index which is screaming of coming commodity price increases or price of goods and raw materials inflation.
They never saw the stock price bubble, they don't see this. POG will have to conform to their preconcieved trend and chart notions before they notice. They will (imho) not start the upturn (fundamental conditions will) but they will turn the upside into a bubble. They'll probably take POG and POS from whatever is fair dollar valuation and raise it to the moon. Let's hope so.
Mr. Hamilton, what will break the transfer cycle of bonds-to-stocks and stocks-to-bonds??
Thoughts?
Happy weekend
Rich

Why not, I thought. So, I just did.

http://www.businesscycle.com/showstory.asp?storyID=393If anyone still has doubts about the tsunami of inflation headed our way just drop by the ECRI's FIG page (above).

It is not only screaming, it is in a rocket launch from well below zero to where it is now at 18.8%.

The Fed uses this data so they know all too well what is coming (Perhaps they will be compelled to "release" gold?).

The gauge measures at 9 months out so there won't be any relief for at least 9 months. Moreover, judging by the almost vertical trajectory of the FIG there's no telling how high it will go.

In addition, the recent FIG volatility [Extreme swings above and below zero] suggest that there are large economic structural failures in process.


ECRI-FIG Growth %
Aug-99 2.4
Sep-99 7.0
Oct-99 9.3
Nov-99 10.8
Dec-99 16.6
Jan-00 15.5
Feb-00 13.3
Mar-00 13.4
Apr-00 14.0
May-00 8.7
Jun-00 6.6
Jul-00 3.3
Aug-00 1.9
Sep-00 -2.9
Oct-00 -6.8
Nov-00 -9.8
Dec-00 -8.9
Jan-01 -11.2
Feb-01 -12.6
Mar-01 -14.4
Apr-01 -17.2
May-01 -17.1
Jun-01 -16.5
Jul-01 -17.7
Aug-01 -18.0
Sep-01 -16.0
Oct-01 -17.7
Nov-01 -15.4
Dec-01 -14.6
Jan-02 -13.6
Feb-02 -7.0
Mar-02 -5.4
Apr-02 -2.2
May-02 0.6
Jun-02 8.5
Jul-02 15.7
Aug-02 18.8

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48036-2002Sep6.htmlSnip:

By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, September 7, 2002; Page A01

Congress has all but abandoned legislative proposals to ensure that employee retirement funds are not concentrated in their employers' stock, after hearing from businesses that vigorously oppose such restrictions.

The recently devastated retirement accounts of employees from Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. initially fueled a wave of indignation among lawmakers in Washington and solemn vows to protect their investments. But the anger that pushed tough new accounting standards past corporate opponents this summer has already faded, lawmakers and lobbyists say, allowing businesses to regain their strength on Capitol Hill.
...........
Consumer-rights groups, unions and retiree advocates, which were confident that the human wreckage of this year's huge bankruptcies would force real change to the rules, expressed outrage.

"I think it is appalling, and I think the American people would be appalled if they knew," said Karen Friedman, director of policy strategies at the Pension Rights Center, an advocacy group that supports such mandates. "It's time for Congress to have some backbone."
...........
*********
Misetich

Corporate lobby groups are too powerful - politicos are a puppet on a string - Public outrage will soar - as their 401k is kissed goodbye - as the Big Bad Bear continues - PE multiples are too high and sooner than later will bet back to their mean -

Got gold?

Julliard vs Greenman 110 US 421

And when the Constitutional Convention came to the prohibition upon the States, the historian says that the clause ,"No State shall make anything but gold and silver a tender in payment of debts" was accepted without a dessentient State:

"So the adopton of the Constitution," he adds,"is to be the end forever of paper money, whether issued by the several states or by the United States,if the Constitution shall be rightly interpreted and honestly obeyed."

********************************************************

Wake Up: the federal courts are corrupt and our entire money sysem contrary to our basic and supreme law.

UPDATE #8 (as of Saturday at 10:10 Denver time 9/7/02)
===

FYI ------HIGH, Low and Settlement Price of GC2Z on:
9/3/02 $315.9 $314.1 $315.0s
9/4/02 $317.1 $313.8 $316.5s Change + $1.5
9/5/02 $320.8 $318.1 $319.8s Change + $3.3
9/6/02 $322.9 $319.8 $321.5s Change + $1.7

===

$$$$ 398.6 $$$$ Believer (09/04/02; 18:22:46MT - msg#: 84358)

$$$$ 375.0 $$$$ Henri (09/04/02; 10:58:18MT - msg#: 84326)

$$$$ 362.3 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (09/04/02; 05:21:24MT - msg#: 84304)

$$$$ 354.4 $$$$ perform (09/04/02; 07:34:49MT - msg#: 84313)

$$$$ 353.4 $$$$ darkhorse (09/03/02; 20:56:04MT - msg#: 84280)

$$$$ 349.2 $$$$ mdgc (09/05/02; 15:45:42MT - msg#: 84427)

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Socrates964 (09/04/02; 16:11:50MT - msg#: 84344)

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (09/04/02; 21:38:27MT - msg#: 84381)

$$$$ 342.5 $$$$ gvc (09/03/02; 17:08:12MT - msg#: 84255)

$$$$ 341.7 $$$$ old gold (09/04/02; 11:40:02MT - msg#: 84330)

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (09/03/02; 22:36:21MT - msg#: 84289)

$$$$ 335.4 $$$$ Roger The Shrubber (09/05/02; 08:18:47MT - msg#: 84404)

$$$$ 334.7 $$$$ GoldCoaster (09/05/02; 21:29:56MT - msg#: 84455)

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ Speedy (09/04/02; 19:15:01MT - msg#: 84366)

$$$$ 333.4 $$$$ Slowman (09/04/02; 20:10:11MT - msg#: 84370)

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (9/6/02; 23:09:00MT - msg#: 84544)

$$$$ 332.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (9/7/02; 02:35:37MT - msg#: 84550)

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (09/04/02; 19:11:32MT - msg#: 84365)

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ misetich (09/04/02; 05:28:30MT - msg#: 84307)
$$$$ 331.2 $$$$ Pippin (09/04/02; 12:50:09MT - msg#: 84335)

$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/04/02; 11:36:15MT - msg#: 84329)

$$$$ 329.3 $$$$ mikal (09/04/02; 17:08:29MT - msg#: 84349)
$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ The Hoople (09/04/02; 12:04:30MT - msg#: 84332)

$$$$ 328.5 $$$$ steady (09/03/02; 20:14:41MT - msg#: 84272)

$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/04/02; 11:15:13MT - msg#: 84327)

$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Trapper (09/03/02; 20:12:26MT - msg#: 84271)

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ mudr (9/6/02; 22:47:45MT - msg#: 84543)

$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ luckypierre (09/03/02; 15:20:51MT - msg#: 84244)

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (09/03/02; 18:33:51MT - msg#: 84261)

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ White Rose (09/06/02; 08:23:51MT - msg#: 84503)

$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ Galerider (09/03/02; 20:53:27MT - msg#: 84279)

$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ The CoinGuy (09/04/02; 13:00:07MT - msg#: 84338)

$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Rock (09/04/02; 12:19:18MT - msg#: 84334)

$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (09/04/02; 05:02:31MT - msg#: 84302)

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Boxman (9/4/02; 04:27:17MT - msg#: 84301)

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ a nation of one (09/03/02; 13:55:53MT - msg#: 84229)

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Tommy P (09/03/02; 14:33:23MT - msg#: 84233)

$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (09/04/02; 21:59:49MT - msg#: 84382)

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ balzac (09/04/02; 17:22:15MT - msg#: 84353)

$$$$ 321.1 $$$$ The Knife (09/04/02; 16:30:43MT - msg#: 84345)
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (09/03/02; 12:29:20MT - msg#: 84221)

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (09/03/02; 13:18:00MT - msg#: 84226)

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (09/03/02; 15:06:26MT - msg#: 84240)

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ Bound Spirit (09/03/02; 17:20:54MT - msg#: 84257)
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ slingshot (09/03/02; 16:57:17MT - msg#: 84254)
$$$$ 319.6 $$$$ NTgeo (9/6/02; 01:56:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 84477)
$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ davefinger (09/03/02; 14:52:14MT - msg#: 84235)
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ koala bear (9/4/02; 04:08:54MT - msg#: 84299)

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ Bulldog (09/03/02; 21:53:40MT - msg#: 84288)

$$$$ 318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)

$$$$ 317.9 $$$$ VanRip (09/05/02; 12:20:50MT - msg#: 84415)

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Artie Farkle (09/04/02; 20:02:53MT - msg#: 84369)

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ Tevye (09/04/02; 08:02:40MT - msg#: 84316)

$$$$ 315.5 $$$$ Christian (9/6/02; 00:11:42MT - msg#: 84471)

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (09/04/02; 07:34:44MT - msg#: 84312)

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Frosty (09/03/02; 18:59:09MT - msg#: 84265)

$$$$ 314.0 $$$$ Flatlander (9/7/02; 07:30:20MT - msg#: 84555)

$$$$ 313.3 $$$$ Woodie (09/03/02; 23:41:11MT - msg#: 84291)

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ SilverHoard (09/04/02; 17:01:10MT - msg#: 84347)

$$$$ 311.4 $$$$ De Ronin (09/04/02; 12:16:42MT - msg#: 84333)

$$$$ 309.7 $$$$ HopeingII (9/6/02; 21:14:33MT - msg#: 84542)

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ Noble1 (09/04/02; 20:25:58MT - msg#: 84371)

$$$$ 308,0 $$$$ Trurl (09/05/02; 09:33:57MT - msg#: 84408)

$$$$ 295.5 $$$$ Topaz (9/5/02; 01:41:33MT - msg#: 84389)

===
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Contract (GC2Z) on the date of Friday the 13th of September. (NOTE the LUCKY date !)
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, September 12th.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short discussion paragraph of "Why gold is important to THAT PERSON as an investor/owner." This part of their entry MUST accompany their Price prognostication, OR the entry WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on Friday September 13th ----- an one-half ounce PURE GOLD Canadian Maple Leaf as the winning prize, with an one-tenth ounce PURE GOLD Austrian Philharmonic to BOTH the next closest guesses (runners up).
===
WELCOME all you new POSTERS !
Thanks for joining us on the USAGOLD Forum.
<;-)