http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=worldnews&StoryID=1662915
Snippit:

BERLIN (Reuters) - Western spies have detected a resumption of the intense communication among Islamic activists last seen in the months before the September 11 attacks, a senior Western intelligence source said on Thursday. The source said Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network had regained strength and was signaling its capability in recent statements broadcast on Qatar's al-Jazeera television station. "The al Qaeda network's ability to take action has increased and it is signaling this to its followers through an increasing number of messages over al-Jazeera," the senior source, who declined to be identified, told Reuters in an interview. "Parallel to this there has been heightened communications activity among Islamic activists. The result has been an increase in information from intelligence sources that is similar to the picture of summer 2001," the source said. Fears have grown that Germany might become an al Qaeda target because the country is holding the world's first trial of a suspect accused of aiding last year's suicide hijacking attacks on the United States that killed more than 3,000 people.


Black Blade: Maybe so. Now that the nations of the world and US politicians are back to "business as usual" and the heat is off, it could be that something drastic might be planned. With US politicians more focused on elections than anything of substance, terrorist activity probably has a better chance of flying below the radar now.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&ncid=716&e=5&u=/usatoday/20021031/ts_usatoday/4580198
Snippit:

Fighting battles in the confining grid of a large city is among the most difficult and dangerous things armies do. A former U.S. commander in the Middle East, retired Marine Corps general Joseph Hoar, envisions a nightmare scenario in which 100,000 of Saddam's best troops hunker down in Baghdad for a block-by-block battle. ''The absolute lesson to be learned from the 1990-91 Gulf War was that you do not take on the United States armed forces in the open desert and expect to win,'' Hoar said last month in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. More likely is that Saddam would defend Baghdad with his fiercely loyal Republican Guard. If that happens, Hoar predicted, ''The result would be high casualties on both sides.''

To prepare to fight in places such as Baghdad, the Pentagon has studied another grim urban landscape: Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. There, a ragtag band of several hundred rebels inflicted devastating casualties on the Russian army in 1994. The Chechens destroyed entire tank columns, used dead Russian soldiers as shields in their bunkers and cowed a significantly larger force with classic guerrilla methods. In military circles, the battle has become a tutorial in how not to fight in cities. The Russian army sent poorly trained, undermanned units into battle with poor intelligence. One wild card is that Iraq could unleash deadly chemical or biological weapons. But U.S. planners think that if Saddam used such weapons, he would be more likely to aim them at bigger, easier targets such as neighboring countries or U.S. forces massing for an attack.


Black Blade: "Interesting" article. I guess that the moral of this story is: Do the job right the first time or don't do it at all. Still, war in Iraq just might not be inevitable if recent comments by Dubya are any indication, and yet the military is training and building up staging areas in the Middle East. Even the UK is calling up reservists and medical personnel for possible military duty. Hmmm...

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5402281%255E462,00.html
Snippit:

FORMER Enron Corp. chief financial officer Andrew Fastow was indicted to on 78 federal counts alleging he masterminded a scheme to artificially inflate the energy company's profits. Number of charges: Former Enron finance chief Andrew Fastow has been indicted on 78 counts of fraud, money laundering and conspiracy charges over the scandal in which the failed energy firm hid its massive debt. But the indictment is notable for the sheer number of charges, which include fraud, money laundering, conspiracy and one count of obstruction of justice not included in the original complaint. If convicted, Fastow faces hundreds of years in jail and millions of dollars in fines. Prosecutors say Fastow and others created a scheme to defraud Enron and its shareholders through transactions with off-the-books partnerships that made the company look more profitable than it was. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also filed a civil lawsuit against Fastow claiming that he defrauded investors and violated securities laws. The SEC is seeking unspecified penalties against Fastow and repayment of his allegedly ill-gotten gains.


Black Blade: Probably won't serve a day in a real prison or have a big burly cellmate named Ben Dover.

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.html

You are world-wise and well-connected,
with actions matching your vision beyond the horizon.

This information page was made for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

New Zealand
Monaco
Germany
the Netherlands
Austria
Ireland
Finland
Australia
Great Britain
Canada
and,
of course,
the United States.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price and GET what you pay for!

http://www.gas.com/p/bf/f7860a9d9707.html?id=fc0e03
Snippit:

HOUSTON (AP) � Shares of energy merchant Dynegy Inc. dropped 14 percent Thursday after an analyst told investors to sell the stock and get what they can for it. Prudential Securities analyst Carol Coale changed her rating on Dynegy from ``hold'' to ``sell.'' In a letter to clients, Coale questioned the company's future and advised investors to unload their stock.


Black Blade: Just an "interesting" article as this is a rare instance of a Wall Street analyst giving a "SELL" recommendation. Of course Dynegy Inc. will in most likelihood go belly up in a few days. But still, analysts don't usually give "SELL" ratings, even to companies going out of business. A few months ago they were in talks to buy out Enron. We are going to see a lot of failed companies soon, but I doubt there will be "SELL" recos on them. Start of a trend maybe? Hmmm�

http://www.gas.com/p/57/eb7716fccaf1.html?id=fc0dfa
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) � None of the known alternate energy sources are technically ready to take the place of fossil fuels, suggesting the need for a crash energy development program if the world is to avoid the threat of global warming, experts say in a new study. ``What our research clearly shows is that scientific innovation can only reverse this trend if we adopt an aggressive, global strategy for developing alternative fuel sources that can produce up to three times the amount of power we use today,'' said Hoffert, first author of the study. ``Currently, these technologies simply don't exist.'' Currently, the world's power consumption is about 12 trillion watts, with 85 percent of it produced by burning fossil fuels.

The study surveyed the entire field of alternate energy and found most systems have serious technical problems still unsolved. Among them:

�Nuclear fission: It is not the final answer because of a shortage of uranium fuel. The proven reserves of uranium would last less than 30 years if nuclear fission was used to make 10 trillion watts of power, about a third of what will be needed by the end of the century, the study found.

�Solar power: To meet the current U.S. needs with solar power would require sun collectors covering some 1,000 square miles. To make the equivalent of 10 trillion watts of added power would require surface arrays covering almost 85,000 square miles, an area larger than the state of Kansas, the study found.

�Wind power: These systems must operate from remote areas and the current power grids could not manage the load, the study found. New grids, perhaps using cooled superconducting cables, might be needed to harvest power from wind and solar systems.

�Solar power satellites: Orbiting solar arrays could make electricity, convert it to microwaves and then beam that energy to a ground antenna where it would be converted back to electricity. But to make 10 trillion watts of power would require about 660 space solar power arrays, each about the size of Manhattan, in orbit about 22,000 miles above the Earth.

�Hydrogen energy: Hydrogen does not exist in pure, natural reservoirs and has to be extracted from natural gas or water. The study found that more carbon dioxide and less energy is produced by the extraction of hydrogen than by burning natural gas directly. Extracting hydrogen from water using solar or wind power is not now ``cost effective,'' the study found.

�Nuclear fusion: After decades of study, science still has not learned how to extract power from the fusion of atoms. The study said additional research could lead to breakthroughs, but it would require political resolve and heavy investment.


Black Blade: Details, details, details. Hydrocarbon Man will still be searching for "cheap" oil and gas for several decades yet. The costs will continue to rise as "cheap" reserves are consumed and replaced with more expensive reserves or more expensive alternatives. The implications for the economy are obvious. There is no magic bullet here.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Euro markets are in negative territory this morning. Today October unemployment data will be released and it is expected to be very "grim". Should provide some "entertainment" as the Lemmings scramble to and fro.

- Black Blade

Spot is a little frisky tonight - trying to jump that troublesome fence and go howling up the hill...$319

Go Spot - bight those keepers!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
WOW!!! � Gold punched through resistance at $318 and now is knocking on $320 an ounce in a solid move upward.

Other news � Cigna is under investigation by the SEC ("informal" investigation that is). The judge in the Microsoft anti-trust trial will give her decision after the bell today. It is expected that the decision will be in line with recommendations, yet the timing after the bell suggests that she may concur with the opposing states and rule more harshly.

BTW, I just set my computer to split screen with Bloomberg Interactive and a couple of Internet "market sites" (stocks and commodities), and USAGOLD. This is quite a trip! The world at my finger tips or perhaps sensory info-overload. Hmmm�

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021101/markets_forex_4.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a two-month low against the euro and the Swiss franc on Friday, with the market nervous ahead of key U.S. data due later in the session and the possibility of a Fed rate cut at next week's meeting. October's U.S. employment report and non-farm payrolls are due at 8:30 a.m. EST, with economists expecting only a marginal number of new non-farm jobs to have been created last month and with the unemployment rate seen on the rise. The Institute of Supply Management October report at 10 a.m. EST is forecast to show national manufacturing activity contracted further. U.S. economic worries dominated after Thursday's data on third-quarter economic growth and regional manufacturing came in below forecasts, fueling expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before year-end -- possibly next week.


Black Blade: Could get quite "entertaining" today. The Wall Street and CNBC spinmeisters will be working hard and the institutional players could be throwing cash at a dying market, all while dazed and confused Lemmings meander about with blank expressions on their faces and thousand yard stares in their eyes. Looks like fun!

The following courtesy of Bill Bonner (DailyReckoning.com):

Sun Valley just released a thorough report on how gold performs in deflation. Turns out, gold is one of the best things you can own. When times get tough, businesses go belly-up and loans go bad. People begin to wonder about the quality of the paper they hold. The dollar, the world's most ubiquitous paper asset, could take a big drop. Investors look for safer places to put their money. What they find is gold, the money-of-last resort, the anti-paper asset. Will gold go to $1,000 per ounce? Maybe not, but it probably won't go down much either.

Black Blade: As I have said before, Inflation/Deflation/Stagflation, it does not matter as far as Gold is concerned because Gold will do well in any case. The ultimate money � the ultimate portfolio insurance.

Thanks for your gracious welcome and helful hints which shall be taken in pursuit of truth, honor and sound direction...

It appears to be a "Golden Day" for us as -spot- is seen flexing it's muscles.......


Regards,
J.R.

P.S. Must we post a new message in order to reply to a particular message?????

Is the word out that there is a rate cut coming?
Power is shifting.
Someone stick a fork in that dollar, I think it's done.

snippit:


http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/NSFutures/1036156735.php



Daily US Precious Metals Commentary
11/01/2002

By: Nell Sloane, NSFutures.com


DAILY US METALS COMMENTARY 11/1/02

METALS:11/1 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:GLD+1.10 ,SLV+2.0
,PLAT+2.10

London Gold Fix $318.75 +2.40 LME Copper Warehouse stks 863,000 tons -325 tons

Comex Gold stocks 1.99 Unchanged COMEX Silver stocks 107.8 ml oz Unchanged

OVERNIGHT ACTION: Asian and European gold a little firmer off US economic
concerns.

GOLD: Gold bulls should get some support today in the early trade, as the international
market bought gold off the anticipation that the US might get a sweep of disconcerting
employment news today. The Dollar is also weaker again this morning and the US equity
market is also showing a weaker opening. Therefore, gold is getting help from all the
necessary bull sources. Also supporting the bull tilt, is the beginning of the Indian wedding
season, which runs from mid November until February. There are signs that price spikes in
gold are having a slight negative impact on retail purchases in Indian, with gold merchants
detecting a slowdown in buying on the recent spike. Once the Wedding season is in full
swing, we suspect that demand will climb enough to mitigate the impact of minor price
increases. With the US Dollar falling sharply it is also possible that the rupee will see some
benefit, thereby increasing Indian purchasing power. We cold easily see a pop in December
gold to $323 today and significantly higher if there is a confidence failure toward the US
economy, off the monthly payroll report. Gold should have an extremely tight inverse
relationship with the stock market today.

I just read your post on Antal Fekete's paper: "Borrowing Short and Lending Long." I've been very interested in Dr. Fekete's writing. It has been a great source of new ideas and challenging thoughts for me. I think he has an awful lot of tremendously worthwhile things to say. Do you have a link or a source for the referenced paper? I'd be interested in reading it.

I wonder if you have kept up with his more recent writings. He has a very intriguing series on his proposed new gold-based currency and bonds, with the real bills providing short-term funding for producers. Very interesting reading.

But there's one thing he talks about that I had trouble understanding. I don't know if you have read his article "The Economic Consequences of Alan Greenspan, The World Could be Sucked into the Blackhole of Zero Interest." In it he talks about how, as interest rates go down close to zero, the present value of debt goes to infinity. I am, of course familiar with the inverse relationship of bond prices and interest rates, and the bond equation; but I don't know enough to be sure that what he's saying is correct. It seems to me that the face value of the bond, due at maturity, would limit the upward potential of the bond price. Bond prices do, of course, rise sharply as the interest rates go down; but I don't see how they could go to infinity. Am I missing something here - or is Fekete being somewhat hyperbolic in his rhetoric?

Thanks for any light you can shed on this for me.

P

Please try this link:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/fekete100702.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/research.htmlThis link is for Gold-Eagle editorials. Click on Fekete's name and get a listing of all his articles.

Good reading!

11/01 08:43
U.S. Bonds Fall; Jobless Rate Rises Less Than Seen (Correct)
By Heather Bandur

U.S. Bonds Fall; Jobless Rate Rises Less Than Seen (Correct)

(Corrects September job losses to a revised 13,000 in fifth paragraph.)

New York, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell after a government report showed the unemployment rate rose less than forecast in October.

Demand for Treasuries declined as investors said the smaller- than-expected increase in the jobless rate suggests the economy isn't slowing as much as previously thought.

``The bond market is reacting to the fact that things may not be as bad as they seem,'' Drew Matus, senior U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Inc., said ahead of the report.

The benchmark 4 3/8 percent note maturing in August 2012 fell about 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 103 19/32 at 8:40 a.m. in New York. Its yield rose 4 basis points to 3.93 percent. The 2 1/8 percent note due in October 2004 lost 1/16 to 100 13/16, pushing its yield up 4 basis points to 1.71 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

After losing 13,000 jobs in September, the economy shed 5,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected a 5.8 percent unemployment rate.

The Federal Reserve, which meets Wednesday on interest rates, reduced its rate target 11 times last year -- for a total of 4.75 percentage points -- to pull the economy out of recession. The central bank has kept the target at 1.75 percent since December 2001. Many traders and investors expect the Fed will cut rates next week amid some signs of slowing growth
____________________________________________________________

I find a loss of only 5,000 jobs just a little bit hard to believe. Then again, what's the difference, it's a jobless recovery. Jobs don't matter anymore, just listen to the media.

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/4421408.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

snippit:



Posted on Fri, Nov. 01, 2002




Unemployment Rate Climbs Slightly

LEIGH STROPE
AP Labor Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's unemployment rate edged back up to 5.7 percent in October as businesses cut 5,000 jobs,
indicating the employment market remains uncertain for workers and companies amid the nation's bumpy recovery.

October's 5.7 percent jobless rate was up slightly from 5.6 percent in September, and jobs were cut for the second month in a
row,
the Labor Department reported Friday. Cuts came largely in manufacturing, construction and temporary employment services.
Those job losses were largely offset by gains in the service sector.




snippit:

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/4410840.htm

posted on Thu, Oct. 31, 2002


Worker morale has suffered with economy
SURVIVORS OF LAYOFFS REPORT MORE STRESS, LESS ENTHUSIASM
By Margaret Steen
Mercury News

The relentless layoffs at Silicon Valley companies are taking their toll even on those who haven't lost their jobs.

Employees' friends and colleagues are gone, but often their work is not. Although the layoff survivors are grateful to be
employed, even if they are working harder, many report dwindling enthusiasm for their jobs. Morale at many Silicon Valley tech
companies varies -- depending on the company, the department and even the individual -- from mild tension to full-blown dread.

``I would say that morale of employees -- not just at Agilent but in the valley -- is at a new low, because frankly the market
seems to be bumping along at the bottom,'' said Jean Halloran, senior vice president of human resources at Agilent Technologies
in Palo Alto. Agilent is cutting 20 percent of its employees by the end of this year.

At companies where a lot of workers have been let go, empty cubicles remind those remaining of better times.

``You can almost hear an echo in the place,'' said one worker at a local high-tech company, who asked that he not be named.

Although workers at some companies have the sense that this downturn's cutbacks are largely over, layoffs still loom at other
local companies including Sun Microsystems and Adobe Systems. And even when layoffs haven't been announced, some
workers
wonder if more cuts may come if their employer's business doesn't improve.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=10&t=l&a=2Is falling off into the abyss this morning.

Tuning in to that INO box in the 20-second interval I get during the morning rush (beats TV, eh?). One o' these mornings, it's going to be a combination like that, and we have lift-off. One o' these mornings...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=8&cid=578&u=/nm/20021101/ts_nm/arms_usa_gulf_dcSure looks like early 2003 is the target date for any military action against Iraq.

YES, Sir Gold N Rule, NEW postings are required as the "Thread" concept is not used at this Forum.
BUT, it looks as if you have managed it well !
Keep up the GREAT posting.
<;-)

Indeed, I do think that Fekete is being "hyperbolic", as you say. Obviously, nothing can go to "infinity" in this material world! I don't want to put words into his mouth, he should make clear himself what he means. However, when he speaks of "zero interest rates", it seems to me that what he must be driving at is that the situation where no one wants anything but bonds (therefore the zero, or close to zero interest rates) must be so terrible, that business can't produce any income from sales because no one is buying a thing, therefore bonds previously issued by a company become a millstone around the corporate neck - no cash to pay interest, let alone capital.

Sierra

The St. Ewagiow lives!

It has been a strange week considering the amount of negative economic news released.

Physical gold is a teriffic value. Everybody should own as much as they can "understand". That might be 5% or 50%; depends on the level of understanding. Get thee understanding. The times; they are parlous.

...that would feature shares and physicalA well informed birdie has revealed that UBS Paine Webber and likely all of UBS will offer a "Gold Package" containing "Certificates" for physical and gold shares from a basket of miners.

This birdie asked me to opine.

I informed him that the words "Allocated metal account" must appear in the boilerplate for the "package" to have any credibility.

If it does, and the owner has direct receipted, demand ownership of specific, on hand, metallic forms [coinage, bars, ingots etc.] then the offering will sell out overnight.

In fact, I told this person that UBS probably couldn't GET the gold in the first place unless it came from insiders at the Swiss National Bank.

News may have leaked out regarding the WGC's planned "Gold Product" and competitors may have jumped on the bandwagon.

The problem here is that the guys putting this thing together are Wall Street acolytes who already have a bit of baggage these days.

If you are reading these words and want gold, you already now where to get it without assistance from the WGC or UBS..

Stock shares are probably dancing around at this level because they are happy with the Republicans.

Sometimes, after an election, the wine runs out.

Hi sector... Nice little tidbit of info. This makes me raise one of my general "harping" points. While many of us, who try to keep abreast of things in the PM markets, wouldn't have any interest in a product based on unallocated ownership, methinks it might be otherwise with the public in general.

I keep thinking that the average person (at least the American mindset), who is so comprehensively accustomed to "paper" ownership (and bothered with the costs and "inconveniences" of owning anything tangible, except their homes), would not recognize or care very much about the distinctions. For them, they may (imo) just move reflexively to any instrument that purports itself as "safe," bears interest commensurate with the market, and has the glitter of "gold" about it.

The general public has thus far proved not to be very discriminating in its willingness to throw gobs of money at just about anything. While bad times make people knuckle under more, this does not mean they have undergone a change of mind. I can't help but see that most people will elect to buy into the convenience of these instruments, without taking the time to learn about them anymore than they ever bothered to learn about all the other nonsense they've bought. And by the time they catch on to some of the dynamics, and perhaps then opt to obtain physical metal, they will be chasing the bus out of the station...

The other side to this is that should people in significant numbers begin to buy into these types of gold-touting, paper-based instruments, the extra fuel may assist the overall downward pressure on the price in the contract arena. This could make two general outcomes prevail: 1) the assistance at forcing the price down in paper will only highlight more quickly a divergence in genuine physical prices -- thus destabilizing the contract world more quickly; or 2) by providing the stuff for a few more rounds, enough players may hang on at the table, eeking out whatever they can from the old game, and hence prolonging the dynamic a bit longer.

In either case, the old is quickly passing away here, and for all the efforts to hold back the swell, global paradigms like deep sea currents, don't change their course until they've run them.

Anyone have any other thoughts on this?

...may only be fuel for the cabal......for the moment.

I agree wholeheartedly with your realist view of unallocated new gold ownership "Products". Moreover, these things may just be more dots in the picture of rising cabal panic.

The added draw [Some suggest 1,000 tonnes per annum] from several new and upgraded gold markets around the world cannot be a welcome sight to those government shysters who it seems have been relegated to hoping and praying of late.

I particularly like the idea that in a bankrupt financial world...gold cannot be bankrupted.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APcHysRUVQnJhemlsSao Paulo, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Within a week of helping former union leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win Brazil's presidential election, the country's second-biggest labor group called a strike to back demands for higher wages.

Forca Sindical, which represents 16 million industrial workers across Brazil, asked 120,000 auto workers to stop work today and march to the headquarters of the Sao Paulo State Industry Federation, a lobbying group for the nation's biggest companies. Forca Sindical leader Paulo Pereira da Silva said he's counting on Lula to boost wages, which have lost 10 percent of their purchasing power since 1998, when he takes office Jan. 1.

``We expect Lula to keep promises to increase the minimum wage, create jobs, recuperate salaries,'' said Pereira, many of whose members supported Lula in the election.

Brazil's trade unions, the backbone of the campaign that helped Lula win last weekend's election, are pressing the Workers' Party leader for guarantees he will honor pledges to double the minimum wage, eradicate hunger and distribute wealth more equally in Latin America's biggest country.

Investor concern that, by trying to fulfill the promises, Lula may default on Brazil's $300 billion debt has fueled a 35 percent slide in the currency since April and caused the benchmark 8 percent bond that matures in 2014 to fall 30 percent.
__________________
Lula to support doubling of wages. Here comes inflation!
If I lived in Brazil I would be buying gold with both hands.

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales fell sharply for a second consecutive month in October as automakers faced a tough comparison with a record month last year and diminishing returns from incentives.

Among automakers reporting their monthly results on Friday, Ford Motor Co. F.N said its sales dropped a precipitous 34.9 percent compared with October last year, when industry-wide sales hit a record high.

The results exclude the Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo brands controlled by the world second-largest automaker, which is struggling to implement a multiyear turnaround plan after last year's loss of $5.45 billion.

Similar to the downbeat month at Ford, the Chrysler side of DaimlerChrysler AG DCX.N DCXGn.DE said its October sales fell 31 percent.
_______________
Ford and GM down over 30% in sales. More layoffs coming?
The 5.7% unemployment is a cooked number.

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.html

The Small Order Desk

Who owns gold? Gold owners are the people who own the professional practices, the businesses, the industries, the shops, and who are the working folk that make "Western civilization" operate on a day to day basis. In most cases you will find gold owners to be among its most reliable and efficient practitioners precisely because we understand that is not the government nor through Wall Street that will insure our futures and make our lives rewarding. We are the software engineers, doctors, lawyers, school teachers, small business owners, college professors, retirees, civil servants, tradesmen, laborers and financiers alike -- all people who recognize the stability, permanence, utility, and simplicity of gold.

Friendly help for your first-time purchase and for your routine acquisitions!

Our Small Order Desk is for anyone who would like to buy less than $5,000 of gold bullion or pre-1933 international gold coins.

Items offered through this desk include the following.

Gold Bullion:
U.S. Gold Eagles (fractional sizes available)
Canadian Maple Leafs (fractional sizes available)
Austrian Philharmonics
South African Krugerrands
Gold Bars

Our full slate of pre-1933 international gold coins: (examples shown)

TOP ROW: French Rooster (.1867 oz); French Angel (.1867 oz); Swiss Helvetia (.1867 oz); Belgian Leopold (.1867 oz)

BOTTOM ROW: British Sovereign (.2354 oz); Dutch 10 guilder (.1947 oz); and German 20 mark (.2304 oz)

We also offer U.S. Silver Eagles and Silver Canadian Maple Leafs in 100 ounce quantities or more. It's all priced right and in keeping with our long history of client service.

call for gold price quotes and information

1-800-869-5115
speak with Jonathan, ext.110

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThese continue to be very popular, and to hold them is to immediately appreciate the exceptional craftsmanship of the mint those many years ago. Add some to your portfolio today!

With regards to paper products. I would agree completely that a retail unallocated gold paper product will have public appeal for all the reasons you state and probably more.

But I'm missing something in the statement that these types of products would assist in keeping the paper contract price down. If anything, it should force up the price. Long is long and buying is buying. and the type of public buying these instraments will not be ones that play the futures game.

Am I missing something?

Pizz

Pizz,
read Aristotle's last one. There's no missing it there.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcK3mBSjRm9yZCBP11/01 12:19
By Bill Koenig and Joe Miller

Detroit, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co.'s total U.S. vehicle sales fell 34 percent in October as no-interest loans and discounts drew fewer buyers into showrooms, after spurring an industry record pace a year earlier.

The world's second-largest automaker sold 287,975 vehicles, including imports and heavy trucks. The percentage change is based on a daily selling rate that adjusts for one more sales day this October than a year earlier. The total fell 31 percent without the adjustment, Ford said in a statement.

U.S. auto sales fell an estimated 26 percent in October to an annual pace of 15.8 million cars and light trucks, based on the average forecast of six analysts polled by Bloomberg News. The year-earlier month set a record with a 21.3 million annual pace, as General Motors Corp. led rivals in offering no-interest loans to revive demand after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

October was ``the second month of some atrophy in terms of customer demand,'' said IRN Inc. analyst Mike Wall, whose company forecasts vehicle plans for suppliers. ``Everybody and his mother has two or three cars now.''

General Motors is forecast to say later today that its sales fell 34 percent, the average forecast in the Bloomberg survey of analysts. The average estimate for DaimlerChrysler Ag's Chrysler unit was 23 percent.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oops! Let's see if Wall Street dances over this Boo Boo!

BTW -- There is a mini shot upward in pog as we speak�over $320 both on informer.de and bulliondesk.com ($319.90)

Perhaps somebody knows something�Friday afternoon and all. I can hear Bear Stearns now�"Our guy hit the wrong key" "He meant to hit SELL" :-)

a rise of Gold from 318.70 to 320.10 in the last 10 min's.It doesnt show on Kitco yet.Looks like a real nice vertical spike on my chart.Happy weekend to all.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html

WHEN?

Take a look at the progressing upward channel on the gold graph.

Now's the time to add gold to your portfolio.

For portfolio guidance attuned to YOUR needs,
contact us at USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals.

1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
Let us help YOU.

Back in the '70s, there was great unease in Mexico about the future value of the peso - justified fears.

What happened? The Mexican banks opened "dollar accounts" for Mexicans. The middle class poured funds into these "dollar accounts", instead of opening accounts in US banks.

But, then the oil price plunged, and the banks went broke, and in order to get the foreign creditor banks off the hook, the whole banking system was nationalized; thus the creditor banks turned their claims against certain Mexican banks, into claims against the Mexican government - sovereign debt.

When the middle class wanted its dollars - there were no dollars. The middle class took a tremendous, outrageous bath.

I say this, because touting gold colored paper is the same scheme: people want another money, besides dollars? (Gold is another money). So, we open "gold accounts" for them. We are not actually promising the gold, we are only promising to pay out, upon redemption of the gold colored papers, whatever dollars the price of gold is at. (This is an even better scam, than when the Mexican banks promised delivery of dollars.)

Most people will not go to the Comex for paper gold futures. It is a scam, but a complicated scam. But a great many people, will go for gold colored paper if UBS offers it. Gold is regaining some status, and this is a way to "head 'em off at the pass." Don't let the stampede develop into a demand for physical. Offer the gold colored paper!

It will be successful. Until it fails. Which is sometime in the future, and...we are all dead in the long run.

HOWEVER, in my estimation, the demand for physical will not tail off with these offers - WGC, UBS and other competitors.

The demand for physical is already too heavy, and will not diminish under any circumstances. I agree with Bill Murphy, "We are close!" Just too, too many things wrong in the world at the same time.

That's my feeling - I may be wrong.

Good weekend to all, on a happy $320 note.

Sierra

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlN'er to be forgotten....and a happy weekend to all!

Courtesy of Bill Bonner (DailyReckoning):

Autos and houses. If it weren't for these two industries, the economy would be in serious trouble.The economy grew last quarter, 3.1%. But it took a lot of more than $100 billion of refinancings each month...and auto sales gimmicks that have knocked about $1,000 off of the average Honda. "The strength in third-quarter consumer spending was entirely in vehicle sales," said Bruce Steinberg at Merrill Lynch. "Unfortunately, it will be a lot weaker in the fourth." Why? Because home refinancings are plummeting - down 24% in the most recent week.

Black Blade: No argument here. And what about today's market action? What a wild day for economic data, amusing reaction by Wall Street, the currency and precious metals markets. Wow!!! It really was fun and yet many are still oblivious. I think that we are finally entering the end game. It should be "Interesting".

Euro/Gold = 321.52
USD/Gold = 320.10
USD/Euro = .9965

What happens after they meet? Will the Gold price run up in both as FOA said it would, (one trying to catch the other for different reasons)?

Got Gold?

Here's an old favorite of mine that speaks of the SM we saw today:

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Whistling through the graveyard of the future.

TGIF

Boilermaker

It's Friday !! Loved that last minute in your face move by gold this afternoon. Our little bull calf is showing some spunk of late it appears to me. Hard to picture it with a lot more weight, strong legs, and a set of horns, but time will provide a Golden Bull soon enough.

Wish I could invite all of you out to the farm this weekend. Have had a 5 gallon pot of chili "slo cookin" all day and have plenty to share. Probably burn a wood pile from this summer where I cleared some land for a larger garden. Yep, wish we could all meet and spend some time talking face to face as the embers from the bon fire keep us warm on a cool evening. Perhaps one day the Knights and Ladies of the table will all gather.

I am gratefull for another week of learning. Thanks to all the newer posters for sharing insights. Happy weekend to everyone!!

Dear Sir: Astute observation (ANOTHER paper money); I was thinking the same thought.

Is poor Cavan Man smarter than James Dines?In Mr. Dines' latest circular, he talks about a "devastating economic storm" , a "tidal wave" in the form of a "massive currency crisis" ("sweeping the globe") etc., etc., etc. He talks about the "mega forces" ready to, "blow the lid off gold". Later in the show, his writer goes on to say, "Mr. Dines is not recommending gold bullion and coins".

My question is, if things are that bad, and I believe they are; if the global monetary crisis is as bad as he suggests (says 401K's and retirement accounts could be toast); why in the heck would anyone want more leverage in a bad (USD) product? Are 100 pounds of rotten bananas better than ten pounds? Is their strength in numbers.

If POG could "spike to $5000as he suggests, how is the guy who hold 1000 ounces @$271 gonna get hurt?

Does he realize what a gold price of $5000 would do to his financial paradigm?

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/world/1643394Snippit:
"Kuwait's government is sealing off nearly a quarter of the country -- including the area near the Iraqi border -- to the public as U.S. and Kuwaiti soldiers train ahead of a possible showdown with President Saddam Hussein. Kuwaiti authorities say the move, which takes effect Saturday, is intended to safeguard the public during ongoing military exercises in the country's northwestern desert. The U.S. officials would not comment on Kuwait's decision to seal off the country's northwest, a move that bars the public from more than 1,600 square miles of Kuwait's total land area of about 6,900 square miles."

Waverider: I hear a crescendo of war drums.

I saw a very pleasant vieo with that music. Funny thing, though, it was in German and filmed during the Weimar era in Germany.

In German, if I recall correctly, the title was "Wochenende und Sonnentag" - "Weekend and Sunday" (?)

It showed so many happy people enjoying their weekend, playing, bicycling, dancing, swimming, picnics, etc. Lots of little kids - I had to think about those little kids: how many of them survived the German Holocaust - of dead Germans - in the horrible war that was at their doorstep?

Can't hear that music without thinking of them.

Are we, too, perhaps facing a similar catastrophe?

Sierra

Iran is in the process of "privitazing" it's oil and gas industry. Favorite partner is the Belgian/French, TotalFina
oil company (40%). Ian and Quatar discovered the biggest gas-bubble ever and it is estimated to serve the globe's gas needs for the coming 65 year ! A lot of pipelines are planned. Iran / Iraq / Saudi Arabia are (re)uniting with different charm-operations ! The ME is (re)organizing itself and favors "political" solutions (the euroland way)for settling differences, instead of frontal confrontation. Apparently, it has not much to do with a gold-friendly, monetary union, currency (euro) imbedded in an oil/gold/euro-dinar-concept ! But that's because this process is so much different than what we have known for quite some time now.
Iraq's gold-repatriation, Iran's interest in the gold dinar, China and Russia, inviting gold-diggers, and the interest in the EMU model, publicly stated, do suggest strongly that something is definitely changing on a larger scale than presently visible.

When the dollar finally throws the towel into the ring, the paper-frenzy will shift into a rush on valuable tangibles.
Precious, basic, resources in combination with a solid, exchangable, currency.

Intrigants and manipulators with not so respectful intentions, will be ignored, increasingly. Surely not a smooth, overnight, process.

The general public, soon, suffering from a prolonged paper-hang-over, isn't in the capacity of anticipating the coming flight into tangibles. They need convincing evidence that things are dramatically/fundamentally, changing. Only those wise, anticipative, giants, know how things (mass-behavior)will evolve. All those dervative "products" are ersatz (fake). It's like drinking, poisonious methanol (causes blindness), instead of degustating genuine ethanol.

The globe is more and more into the ban of "political economy" ! Originally a contradictio in terminis. But not anymore. This new reality is there to stay for quite some time. And, indeed, a rather complex notion. The dollar and the euro are the pillars of 2, completely different "political economies". Both (�-$) evolve geo-politically, whilst pretending, having nothing
to do with each other ! POG's behavior, illustrates this.

A similar process is happening with the POO. Euroland is suggesting to the ME what is the most appropiate POO ! Today, we all (producer + producer) feel quite comfortable with 25$. But one day those dollar settlements will have to compete with euro settlement for the barril. And then the euro-oil-gold liason will be an outspoken fact. A recent, French televised discussion on oil/POO, was very suggestive in that direction. And it is not because "Gold" isn't mentioned within these eluberations, that it isn't of the utmost importance to it.
Let me put it somewhat simplier : Euroland knows the dollar very well...but the dollar block goes on underestimating the euro. My 2 cents, amateur-observer's conclusion on the present events.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=0I was at the top of the web page and noted that gold is showing a price of $320. The closing price this afternoon was 318 and something I think. I went to the web site with the graph (see link above) to see a nice spike.

Any ideas?

PA

The chart indicates that the spike occured at 1p this afternoon. However, I believe this to be a FOREX price. The futures price on bloomberg indicates a gold price less than 320. Are not futures prices typically higher (representing future delivery) than spot FOREX prices?

Maybe I should quit drinking beer at this point.

Screw it, it's Friday.

Take care.

PA

Hey Pizz, how's it going? Regarding your inquiry, let's look for a moment at what we've been dealt...

First, I'm going on the hypothetical product roughly as described (brief as it was) -- a "Gold Package" containing "Certificates" for physical and gold shares from a basket of miners.

This gives me as the "packager" great leeway in laying the terms. We don't know what the mix will be -- or even the objective: current income or capital gains or preservation of capital? Likely, given the climate there will be an emphasis on safe harbor stuff, with some regular dividend.

The come-on for these "packages" will be an additional potential for significant capital gains through the leverage of gold mining shares. They can wrap these "packages" up anyway they like. Structure a safe senior tranche mostly with gold accounts (UNallocated of course), with some exposure to the NA giants and a steady (but small) regular dividend yield. Buffer this wth various riskier subordinations all the way down to a walk-on-the-wild-side offering potential for giddy gains in 100% exotic juniors and explorers (no regular dividend here, though...).

Plus, there is absolutely NOTHING in the above statement that indicates that futures and the panoply of derivatives can't or won't be part of the portfolio. As you well know EVERY prospectus has the disclaimer stating that the fund may use and invest and hold positions in derivative products from time to time. It won't be any different here.

In all likelihood, if my take on the public's portfolio preferences is accurate, they will walk in the door uttering "safe harbor," but will walk out all pumped up by the intoxicating prospects of leverage that the mining shares purport to bring (plus a little octane booster in futures/options). If the "package" is structured, there will be no lack of funds with which to cushion the top. People, beguiled by the safety of paper-gold ownership, not at all understanding the dynamics, and champing at the bit to quickly recoup the vast amounts of lost capital from their previous ventures, will easily populate the riskier lower tranches.

The deceptive thing is that people almost instinctively know that "gold is safe." The fault in their reasoning will be in equating these paper instruments with physically held gold itself. Like sector says, "gold won't go bankrupt." Understanding the riskless aspect of a liability-less asset vs. the risk of any other asset, to the degree and proportion of its inherent liabilities, IS ESSENTIAL.

Most people DO NOT get this. They've never owned any asset without liabilities, and since most consider a savings account as riskless, demonstrate that they have still not been roused from the slumber of generations of unquestioned relative stability.

Another trait of people that leads to their undoing is that they want everything, now, for free. If you can convince people that your product (or "package") can approximate this performance, you will have their money. It will sound so good to people to know they have "exposure to gold's upside" through convincing leverage arguments, but will also "control" just enough gold to give the warm-and-fuzzies of "owning" a "secure" asset.

Even if you wanted 100% gold certificates (all in UNallocated accounts, of course), you would be cheating yourself. If this is really what you wanted, you may do better and be more economic to just invest in futures or call options. After all, your unallocated holding is really nothing more than an undated long futures position with a twist, in that instead of putting up margin, you have paid for it up front in toto.

So now, regarding your questions: is long, long; and is buying, buying? Is is, is?

In light of the foregoing, there is every reason now to apply the template of Aristotle's #87615 at this point. In our hypothetical structured instrument, there are all sorts of ways to mix this cocktail, but the common ingredient will be the sale of short gold positions, which will result in a continued and beneficial effect to the seller brought on by the downward pressure on the price caused by this dynamic.

This does not mean the price must go down. Witness the very controlled ascent taking place right now. It would be a stretch to conclude that if ALL contracts were tomorrow cancelled, and ALL gold transactions had to take place on the spot, over the barrel, that gold would not INSTANTLY become unpriceable, and would vanish from sight. Plenty bid; no ask. While only conjecture, I am sure most reasoned analysis would concur with this pretty closely, thereby demonstrating the unrealistic pricing brought on by the inflation of "paper gold."

So, in the more optimistic assessments (and the preferred view) of the gold world for most investors, the ideal conditions would be to keep the status quo, while effectively adjusting the price up a bit. Their ideal world would be a steady but gradual rise to some reasonable new benchmark for gold; say $600? This would prove a win-win, no? Longs would double on gold and 10xx their leveraged holdings, and the gradual ascent provides more time to establish the trend to investors, so more and more people buy and bid up their shares. Shorts would have time to adjust their books, and entice enough new cash into this grand new "bull market" by marketing these long-gold front "packages" and "products" to give them the cushion they need, and to balance out any losses. Everyone would still want contract trading to drive price discovery, and they would still want everything denominated in US dollars.

This type of control will be brought about by heavy selling. Quickly the overview: 1) most longs are in it for the cash hit; 2) shorts know this and sell with just cash margin; 3) if the price rises dangerously, shorts can go, "boo" and announce intent to deliver on some amount they can tolerate (should their "bluff" be called); 4) most longs don't have the funds to actually "take" delivery, so they close out their positions (the lucky few at the head of the line making some profit, perhaps); 5) the stampede to the exits causes the price to collapse; and 6) start all over again. 6a) As long as there is enough real gold working its way through the system to keep confidence, the cycle can continue.

Finally exeunt to number 7). The exit strategy is given plenty of treatment by FOA and Aristotle, among others. Basically, demonstrate good faith efforts at making good on your obligations, and then shrug your shoulders and say, "I quit," and walk away with relatively little harm compared to the gadgillions you've pocketed along the way. Nothing scientific about this other than a good mixture of history and human behavioral observations.

This is old stuff, but the gesture made in my earlier comment was that this kind of activity may give an extended lease on life to this type of game, if enough fresh funds come in, and other things work out (nothing, let us say... too "discontinuous"). I touched on this a bit in part of an earlier post (#87833) as well, and briefly mentioned another consideration that may come into play in a crisis -- capital flow restrictions...

Now remember, the purveyors of this stuff can genuinely believe they have a win-win "package" for you (and them!). They can well believe that gold should rise (but just a little), and that they have a handle on it by understanding the dynamics of paper. In such a setting they believe they can handsomely profit from rising mines, or at least good volatility there. They have people's money, because they have convinced them of the safe-ness of the instrument, and people are happy with their cash return because the instrument is keeping up with the controlled revaluing of gold upward. Everybody's theoretically going to be happy!!

The heart and soul of the issue is that this "package" still avoids true physical gold as much as possible. It's paper inflation possibilities allow everyone to buy and the price to go down (or at most go up under strict control).

So in answer to your questions: Yes, long is long, and buying is buying. But almost, isn't...

cheers,
miner

I checked out a few places and found the following:

The Bouillion Desk 319.50/320.00. A tick of 320.10 @ 15:46 with the last tick fo 319.50 @ 17:05

TRASY 318.60/319.10 real time

GLD.FX1 319.75 @ 02:11

Perhaps Shanghai will keep the weekends to come lively?

...for both the gold price and the SM.

Guess you can look at this as buying too early, or selling too early - depending on your frame of reference. Either way, an investment in gold or the SM (NYSE composite, Nasdaq indexes) would have left you about in the same position today as then.

What's this say for the next 5 years? I'll leave that to minds with more economical wisdom than mine to ponder. Looks like those that "got safe" (bonds/gold) in '99 (pre-Y2K), and stayed patient, were rewarded. Who'd have thought Y2K would save the day?

The archives from this day in 1998 are short, but interesting.

Brilliant.

Gold. --- Ari

(Hey, I'm running late enough as is.)

miner

http://calltodecision.com/Civil%20War.htmlI cannot help but marvel at the attitude among those in my generation that all the "bad things" happened in the past and will never be repeated.

I would strongly encourage those that have the opportunity to take 10-15 minutes to review the link that I have supplied above.

The older I become, the more I realize that some things are worth taking a stand to defend - even if against seemingly immeasurable odds.

Best regards,
Paper Avalanche

Frustrating, no?

Just watched Rukheyser..first time in a few dozen moons..his guest was a Frenchman, Jean-Marie somebody, who amoung other things manages a very successful gold fund...Soc-Gen I believe, tho I am not familiar with any type of fund, gold or otherwise.

Terribly interesting to me was the fact that, first that he had someone on who invested in gold and second that there was not one question asked about gold by either the host or by any of the three esteemed panelists...although the name of the gold fund was repeatedly flashed under Jean Marie's name.

My conclusion: Very strange to this boy. One way to view it is that Ruck is running scared...followed by his brood..if you ever wondered whether any of them were able/willing to think for themselves.

Today the Euro rose sharply..even though European economies are weak generally and German banks specifically are said to be 'on the ropes'.

Does this mean that the US economy and the US dollar are even weaker??? If so gold will automatically rise with the Euro as the US dollar falls. All we can do is wait and watch expectanty.

http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?ItemID=13799
Why do Bush and O'Neill consistently and continually
lie to the American people on this topic?

The trade and C/A deficit does not matter,because
America is such a fine place to invest one's
"money".


"If you are an American multi-national with
feet planted in many countries,it may be
true that US indebtedness will have no consequences.
But for homebound citizens,who's fate depends solely
on America's balance sheet,the debt obligations are real."

Perhaps this is why.

Pizz, et al., your posts re the "gold package" somehow triggered these thoughts in me:

I am sorry for the plight of J6P. But there is a part of me that wonders about the psyche that believes that it can survive with all resources in tact without paying attention!

From my perspective, I have noticed that:

When you are heavily indebted with no perceived way out...you "tune out" any constructive (different) action because of the feeling that it wouldn't make a difference. So, for our general consumer (heavily indebted public)...all they can think of is credit/debt. Unless the bankruptcy laws have changed radically, I suspect for most of them the idea of filing bankruptcy (especially in states where homesteads aren't touched in bankruptcy) looms in the back of their minds as the final solution to their problems. With this as the possible solution, I would see them as careening towards maxing out all credit first. (Two "boosts" to this: perhaps a better holiday season for the retailers; and maybe they'll find the two (that I know of) precious metals dealers on the internet that accept credit cards, and actually buy some physical!)

While they would cringe at being compared to J6P, I have found that most "professionals" in the US suffer from what could be an even greater blindness. They're quite proud of the fiat they earn in their profession. But, they expect the preservation (nay, the increased value) of their assets to either happen naturally or through those other "paid professionals" to whom they turn over that responsibility. Yes, they can argue that they are using all of their time and energy MAKING money and don't have the time and energy left to figure out what to do with it. That's why they hire the "professionals." Well, that will float only so far in my book. Beyond that, it's just the typical cop-out of it being someone else's fault. (Which is probably one of the US's worst flaws � we're going to need 15 legs for all of our Achilles� heels).

Excuse me, but to me it is complete IDIOCY to have assets and to not be paying attention to the preservation of them! What the hell are all of these people working their asses off for (making all those deals, picking up those gigantic paychecks/commissions, etc.)? To totally ignore what happens to the money/fiat that's left over after bills are paid becomes a peculiar form of insanity.

OK, so I'm being overly critical. People have their lives to live and families (?) to enjoy. Excuse me again, but my perception is that most people in this category don't enjoy, participate with or minimally enjoy their families. So, their heads (thought processes) are tied up elsewhere. So, why shouldn't they be "tied up" with paying attention to what the hell is happening in the world and taking care of their families, their assets, and their lives by taking responsibility?

That means, to me, education. God forbid. Unfortunately, in the US, it means somehow propelling yourself out of complacency. Easier said than done. I think we all suffer from the "I learned this formula and I want it to work" syndrome. The "absorption" process we call education only happens at certain moments in most peoples� lives...the rest is lived trying to make whatever we expended the energy to learn work for us. Unfortunately, it's outdated formulae, but what the hell.

I guess I am losing sympathy for the American public. To expect life to everlastingly bow to and provide for one's wishes, comfort, gluttony(?), etc. seems to me to be supreme arrogance. I am left wondering when it will "kick in" that we are in dire straits and how many will choose some constructive (for themselves and their families) action...and how many will find blame elsewhere and seek revenge/retaliation/recompense/whatever from those that "done them wrong."

Think I'll go have another glass of wine?

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1643246
Snippit:

NEW YORK - While a slow-growth economy typically spells weak natural gas demand, analysts don't expect consumers to get much of a break on their heating bills this winter. Dwindling output from the nation's gas fields and a surge in demand from a fleet of new, gas-fired power plants are expected to offset whatever downward pressure the economy is exerting on gas prices, energy analysts are warning. Despite near record high inventories built up for the peak demand heating season, analysts said collapsing prices in 2001 led to a sharp drop in drilling, setting the stage for the current tight supply-demand balance. "The energy industry in general is hurting because of a cash crunch, and that's kept drilling relatively soft. These prices will bring some (drilling) action, but the question is when," said Kevin Petak, director at consultants Energy and Environmental Analysis in Virginia. Analysts, moreover, do not expect any relief from Canadian supplies and a stock drawdown this winter could lead to a tight supply situation next year, as production continues to falter while consumer and industrial demand compete with the need to fuel a new generation of power plants. While high gas prices inevitably trim usage and prompt those who can to switch to cheaper oil, analysts still expect strong gains in power generation demand, noting almost all power plant capacity installed since 2001, some 100,000 megawatts, are fired only with gas. Given a normal winter this year, analysts said they expect near record stocks to be drawn down to more normal levels, paving the way for some stiff competition next year to rebuild storage, fire more new power plants and fuel an industrial sector rebound as the economy recovers.


Black Blade: Where have we heard this before? Virtually all new power generation is NG fired, drilling activity has fallen sharply and new production cannot keep up with demand, and a normal winter will drawdown inventories rapidly. With nearly 300 new power plants planned over the next couple of years we might be looking at a long term energy crisis. We could see much higher energy prices this winter and into early next year.

The true colors of it all. Paper is paper.....

Corporate Moon Shot � The $3 Trillion Bomb
As I was reading through the news, one article on Bloomberg hit me right over the head!� "The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed that U.S. companies be required to disclose an estimated $3 trillion in off-balance sheet debt, a reaction to Enron Corp.'s collapse." The off-balance sheet debt is carried by SPE's (special-purpose entities), which are usually partnerships, trusts or corporations controlled by the parent company. The article went on to say, "These SPE's help corporations get more favorable terms on loans while keeping the debts off their books." HELLO!!! Don't you think investors would want to know how much debt their companies are holding? We're talking $3 trillion. To put it into perspective the article said, "By comparison, the size of the U.S. corporate bond market is about $2.3 trillion, according to Lehman credit indexes." By admission of the SEC, the hidden debts of Corporate America exceed the entire U.S. corporate bond market.

We flippantly throw around these big numbers of billions and trillions. Bear with me to get a minds-eye for what a trillion dollars looks like. A fresh bundle of a hundred, one-dollar bills is roughly a half-inch thick. With 24 bundles you get a stack one-foot tall. A mile is 5,280 ft. x $2400/ft. = $12,672,000 per mile. Now take $1,000,000,000,000 divided by $12,672,000 = 78,914 miles. A stack of one trillion dollars would be 78,914 miles high! Stack up $3 trillion in hidden corporate debt, and those paper-thin dollars would get you to the moon from here! That's a BIG number to be excluded from the balance sheets.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Corporate Moon Shot � The $3 Trillion Bomb

As I was reading through the news, one article on Bloomberg hit me right over the head! "The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed that U.S. companies be required to disclose an estimated $3 trillion in off-balance sheet debt, a reaction to Enron Corp.'s collapse." The off-balance sheet debt is carried by SPE's (special-purpose entities), which are usually partnerships, trusts or corporations controlled by the parent company. The article went on to say, "These SPE's help corporations get more favorable terms on loans while keeping the debts off their books." HELLO!!! Don't you think investors would want to know how much debt their companies are holding? We're talking $3 trillion. To put it into perspective the article said, "By comparison, the size of the U.S. corporate bond market is about $2.3 trillion, according to Lehman credit indexes." By admission of the SEC, the hidden debts of Corporate America exceed the entire U.S. corporate bond market.

Lower Interest Rates are Friendly for Gold

A lower interest rate environment would provide less incentive for what's left of the gold carry trade, reduce the contango (forward prices on futures contracts) making it less attractive to sell future supply, and create a greater need for a hedge against inflation. The best reason to take a hard look at precious metals is for the tremendous strength in the fundamentals. Gold demand exceeds mine supply by roughly 40% and the rest of the world is resurrecting gold as a primary monetary asset. Why would the European Union give the Euro a 15% gold backing if it was just another commodity? You could buy gold at today's prices twenty years ago, and a 1980 dollar is worth about 46 cents today. To do the math, an ounce of gold in the early 80's at $318 should cost $691 today. The adjustment will happen; it's just a matter of when.


Black Blade: Think that the "off the books" debt is bad? Wait until corporations are forced to deal with the under funded "pension funds" and the expensing of stock options for starters. Oh yeah, it's going to get very ugly very soon. And when it does it will be a rocket ride for Gold and Silver while the excrement hits the proverbial bladed wind device.

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=RIMYL4GKF02SYCRBAE0CFFA?type=businessnews&StoryID=1667993
Snippit:

HARRISBURG, Pa. (Reuters) - President Bush said on Friday the fact the U.S. economy lost jobs last month was "a problem" but that the foundation for growth was strong. "Today, it looks like some more Americans are looking for work and that's a problem," Bush told a Republican political rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Black Blade: No kidding! Figured that out all by himself did he? Hmmm�

http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/01/news/economy/income.ap/index.htm
Economic data show largest decline in spending in 10 months despite rise in personal income.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Cautious consumers, shaken by the turbulent stock market and concerned over a possible war with Iraq, cut back on their spending in September by 0.4 percent, the largest decline in 10 months.


Black Blade: There will be a lot of empty Christmas stockings and a lot of open space around the Xmas tree (if there is a tree this year). The toys of choice this year will probably be an empty cardboard box to play "homeless street person dwelling" and an empty shopping cart to play "Bag Lady".

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

see Black Blade #88657
see Mas #88656
see Genoo #88571

The article in Bloomberg by Michael Hartman gets fitted in to the bigger picture.

Sorry that I am unable to offer the link.

In Barron's Online there is an article on Elliot Wave theorist Robert Prechter, titled Bear-Market Genius:

"Some commentators think that the sharp rally since Oct. 9 could be the early stage of a new bull market and the harbinger of economic recovery. But Prechter, a master at finding dark clouds beneath every silver lining, argues that bottoms aren't made when the dividend yield on the Dow Industrials is just 2.1%. The yield tends to rise to above 6% at moderate bottoms. In 1929 it soared to over 15%. At true market bottoms, he explains, fearful investors demand money up front from management rather than its promise.

Even more controversial is Prechter's assertion that the sinking stock market will lead to a depression. In fact, he asserts that a lethal deflationary slide in the economy has already started despite mainstream economists' assertions that the current tepid recovery will gather strength next year.

Signs abound, he avers. The Producer Price index has been going down for the past 12 months as has the implicit price deflator for non-financial corporations. Commercial and industrial loan volume has been shrinking for the past two years. Junk bonds are defaulting at a record rate. U.S. mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are soaring. Prechter fears that the U.S. is on the verge of falling into the same contractionary abyss that swallowed up Japan in the 'Nineties and recently claimed Argentina and Brazil as victims.

As Prudential chief investment strategist Edward Yardeni argued in Barron's last week, deflation doesn't have to be a malignant force as long as corporations can more than offset downward price pressure on their products with strong productivity gains ("Deja Vu All Over Again," Oct. 28). Then companies can maintain their workforce and afford to pay them higher real wages.

But Prechter anticipates that the process will be far more lethal. Weakening pricing power will spur companies to cut employees in an attempt to rein in payroll costs and maintain profit margins. As the jobless rate rises, consumer confidence and spending will wilt, in turn triggering yet more layoffs. Productivity, or output per man hour, will likely continue to improve in this environment, but it will come as a result of layoffs and fearful exertions of the surviving workforce rather than technological innovation.

"This was the very reason economist Joseph Schumpeter pointed out that 'the Depression acted as an efficiency expert" and boosted productivity by 20% between 1929 and 1932," Prechter explains.

Deflation is above all a psychological phenomenon, and therefore, according to Prechter, not ultimately reversible by either stimulative fiscal policy or monetary policy. And it typically first shows up in the stock market. That's where social mood shifts always evince themselves first.

He elaborates: "You can sell stocks or other financial instruments in a matter of seconds while it takes months for, say, a company to change from an expansion to a contraction mode. The latter is like turning around an ocean liner. It takes time."

Mild stock market declines spawn recessions more often than not. In fact, the stock market has had a better predictive record than other leading indicators of economic activity. Overinvestment in capital goods only exacerbates the situation. Full-fledged stock market crashes have always preceded serious economic downturns. In large part, that's because panic selling snuffs personal wealth and destroys collateral values, which can beget further liquidation. The contagion then spreads to other asset classes and then to the real economy of prices and wages and corporate sales and profits, Prechter adds.

Lethal collapse

What will make the coming economic collapse so lethal, says Prechter, is the mania that has likewise taken place in the U.S. credit market over the past two decades. Total U.S. debt -- household, corporate and government borrowing -- has exploded from under 140% to nearly 300% of GDP in the last 20 years. The previous peak was the 264% level reached after the 'Twenties economic boom.

Like then, the shift from credit expansion to credit contraction this time around figures to catch everyone in its undertow: over-leveraged homeowners, free-spending state and local governments and even corporations with average debt loads, Prechter claims. This should be especially true these days when so many loans are either backed by dubious collateral value or finance consumption rather than productive enterprise.

Happily, chances are that Prechter will be proved wrong this time as he has so many times before in the last decade. We've only had two full-fledged depressions in the last 200 years, so they are rare occurrences indeed. The post-2000 bear market has already been notable in both its severity and length. The current rally seems to have legs.

But the unimaginable does sometimes come to pass, as the events of Sept. 11 so clearly illustrated. So, perhaps there's some value in considering a worst case scenario. A little paranoia, after all, can sometimes be an investor's best defense."

Comment: Food for thought

Thanks for the Barron's post. Prechter has been wrong in the past
but his analysis is a good read. The article ends with "this rally seems to have legs".

Is it over?
Are we back to the boom times so quickly?

I really don't know if Greenspan will cut next week.
If he does it might signal that reflation is the goal.
Burn that dollar - the only path to avoid Japan style
deflation. Time for goldman and silverdude.

Here's another data point for the housing market. My daughter sells RE for a large firm in the Cleveland, OH area and she was doing great until mid-summer when the buyers dried up. Plenty of listings but few offers. She deals mostly in the blue collar neighborhood markets but she said that the Cleveland East Side high-end market went down early this year. Low IR's are mostly going to re-fi's. This is a manufacturing area economy and it has been suffering from offshore competition/overvalued $ for many years.

The manufacturing (productive) sector is being strangled and the service sector will follow when the overvalued US$ goes down. Then, the manufacturing sector will be the first to recover, hopefully in my lifetime.

Cheers,

Boilermaker

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcPmnBa8UmF0ZSBDGoldman, Sachs & Co. yesterday cut its fourth-quarter growth forecast to 0.5 percent from 2 percent and its first quarter 2003 estimate to 1.5 percent from 2 percent because of a weakening economy, said William Dudley, the firm's chief U.S. economist.

``The risk of recession is high, the Fed is probably going to have to cut rates again and we can't see how the outlook for the dollar is going to improve in the near term,'' said Tim Mazanec, senior foreign exchange strategist at Investors Bank & Trust Co. Mazanec said the dollar could weaken to $1.05 against the euro in the next few weeks.

Economists at 20 of the 22 primary dealers, which trade directly with the Fed, expect policy makers will lower their overnight, interbank target at least a quarter point to 1.50 percent on Wednesday. A month ago, just six had forecast a cut.
_______________
Mr Softie may help the market on Monday but what
amazes me is that in this recent rally, while the market
has been up, the dollar has been falling.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcPxhxPbVS5TLiBUNew York, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The government's sale of $40 billion of debt before congressional elections and a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week will probably cost taxpayers.

Some traders said they may demand higher yields to buy the five- and 10-year notes, which match August's record sales.

``It's not comfortable'' bidding on these sales, ``but it's a fact of life and we have to deal with it,'' said John Roberts, head of government bond trading at Barclays Capital Inc., one of the 22 firms, known as primary dealers, obligated to bid at Treasury auctions. ``It's going to cost the Treasury more to sell that $40 billion.''

Maybe $20 million a year more. In pre-auction trading, traders are demanding yields on the notes at least 5 basis points above those on existing securities. Five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, equal $20 million in interest payments a year on $40 billion of debt.

While the new notes yield more in part because their maturities will be three months longer than those on the existing securities, traders said they have to protect their investments from surprises in the week: Will the Republicans win a majority in Congress, which may lead to more spending and debt sales, and will the Fed cut rates?

Some analysts said government spending may increase, leading to higher yields, regardless of which party wins Congress as politicians seek to prepare the military for an attack on Iraq and bolster a slowing economic expansion.

``Treasury supply is weighing on everyone's mind,'' said Sharon Lee Stark, a fixed-income strategist at Legg Mason Wood Walker Inc. in Baltimore. ``We have a lot of supply coming, as well as an election. No matter what, we will be faced with higher deficits, which means even more supply.''
______________
Falling bond prices and rising yields coming into place?
Investors will demand higher yields to buy all this fed debt.

http://www.trimtabs.com/news/mutual/latest.htmlMoney still leaving equity funds.
Gold showed small gains.

http://www.trimtabs.com/news/liquidity/latest.html"We had been opining that corporate buying was a floor under the stock market at near these levels given what had happened both in September 2001 and this past July. However, since the pace of corporate buying has slowed each time the market has made new lows, we are no longer as certain.

That slowdown in buying says that there is less future buying power available to rescue the market from the next plunge to new lows. Add to that gloomy scenario two negative liquidity facts. First, unlike August, October and November are prime months for selling new offerings. Second, margin debt has not been dropping as fast as the market; therefore the next big downturn could be even more severe than in July and September."

You hit an original insightful point in just about each of your paragraphs at 2a.m. today (I'll have what you're having -- later, maybe ;)

They're going to just walk into the bk "out" with one eye on their excuses, have enough of a "someone else" to blame, hope to be in enough company to defiantly push away any sense of shame (and I'm not saying I advocate either), and form a "Homeowners' Union" to forestall repos.

Sympathy? When I consider how long it took each of us here to unlearn our "paper" education, I realize how deep it went. The education we were all products of will have its "day in court" (bankruptcy court) and then we will all have to figure out what real things we each know how to make and do.

Just a thought (original or not?) of mine last week: Most people work in offices. Most of the things produced in offices (insurance comes to mind) are not things we individually want to "buy" for our own enjoyment and quality of life, but we are forced to by the structural circumstances around us. In a cash crunch we will let a lot of our office "purchases" lapse. I'll bet a lot of the office jobs are going away, soon.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54531-2002Nov1.html"U.S. economic growth is close to stalling, analysts said yesterday..."

Real data is in a spectacular disconnect with the stock market lemmings who have been bidding up the indices recently. How will one little shaving off an already low Fed rate save the economy, when 11 or so previous cuts have not? And is not the dollar demanding higher rates of return to prevent the holders of dollar instruments dropping them?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021102/column_stocks_week_1.html"Don't look for a major recovery in 2003. Economists are already lowering their sights for next year's U.S. growth, worried about flagging consumer confidence and a slowdown in manufacturing..."

From Genoo's Worst case scenario:
A little paranoia, after all, can sometimes be an investor's best defense
What me paranoid?

At least the following ten things seem approximately assured.

1. When the interest rate is zero, the FED will probably not lower interest rates further.
2. When there isn't enough money to pay off any of the American public's debts, there is a high probability the debts will not be repaid.
3. When the dollar falls to one tenth its present value, a pound of cheap oatmeal will cost about fifteen dollars. When it's on sale, it might be as low as twelve fifty.
4. If a bureaucrat's lips are moving, she's either lying, or she's with Bill Clinton.
5. When Bolivia slides off into the Atlantic ocean, developers will claim it for underwater apartment projects.
6. When one ounce of gold comes to be worth twelve hundred dollars, twelve hundred dollars worth of gold will weigh just one ounce.
7. JPM will never go belly up. Instead, the English language will be changed to protect the company. The word 'undesolvable' will be used instead of the word 'insolvent.' This will make a big difference in how the company is perceived, and, therefore, its creditors will give up.
8. The U.S. Gubmit will lollygag along, until some wise guy named Attila the Canadian decides to come down and invade New York. Fortunately, he will never make it to Atlanta, on account of he never heard of it.
9. Geroge Busch is probably the best ruler any nation in the world ever had. Unfortunately, he never ran for any public office, and the close resemblence of his name to that of someone already appointed to high office by the U.S. Supreme Court, is not close enough to make a real difference.
10. The next president of the United States will have the word 'govern' in his name. And his first name will be George. Either his last name will have the prefix 'Mc' before it, like a hamburger, or the president we have now will change his name to comply with the prediction.

These are according to an astrology chart which I just in the last five minutes found in the middle of the street.

http://www.scotlandonsunday.comUp from the thros of Shakespearian demise, on a quest to turn over the well sunken stone, do we aspire to greatness by following what is higher? Or, do we seek a numbing solace by surrounding ourselves with the mundane and the profane?

From Bob Chapman .

We are seeing the largest divergence figures ever recorded on our comparison model of the DOW versus European indexes. The figure is minus 915, when deducted from the DOW it gives a true DOW figure of 7,454. Just after the 11/4/02 elections we expect a quick fall to 7,200 � 7,400. If the war begins in early December, as we expect it will and JP Morgan Chase is either indicted for criminal fraud or is sued for civil fraud, the market should then break down to 5500 to 6450. This has been a long time coming due to the market manipulation and gold suppression of the Working Group on Financial Markets, the Plunge Protection Team, and their partners in crime Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citicorp and AIG. This should be breakdown time for the DOW and breakout time for gold.

Cytek

LOL. I was reading along, enjoying your post as something that came from your apparently fertile and weird mind. At the end, I find it's from some strange street-walking (or should I say, walking in strange streets) you've been doing today. (Cm�on, you CAN take the credit, even if your other self wrote it last night and then took to the streets in a blaze of paper. Do you remember what you did last night?) Anyway, you do get some points in my book by taking the time to type it for us!

Definitely need humor in my world! Thanks.

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1670856The crystal-ball readers' estimates for 2003 are too high, Galbraith says, though their numbers are not as ridiculously optimistic in 2001 when they put earnings growth at 9 percent. Their estimates turned out to be the biggest earnings miss ever as earnings crashed by a record 17 percent.

Galbraith says people must recognize the economy's important role in driving corporate results. This strong relationship should again hold this time around, he says.

Corporate profits this year are expected to inch up by a measly 1.6 percent, virtually no growth, Galbraith says, now that the economy is expanding by an unimpressive 3.1 percent.

Don't look for a major recovery in 2003. Economists are already lowering their sights for next year's U.S. growth, worried about flagging consumer confidence and a slowdown in manufacturing.

A quarterly survey by Reuters released this week showed economists expect the gross domestic product will grow by only 3.3 percent in 2003, which is down from expectations for an increase of 3.8 percent in a sampling this summer. The survey was conducted before news of the plunge in consumer confidence in October. Forecasts for 2003 ranged from a low 2.0 percent to a high of 4.8 percent.

The International Monetary Fund painted an even gloomier picture in September, forecasting U.S. growth next year will edge up by only 2.6 percent. The risks were weighted toward further weakness because of the threat of a war against Iraq, it said.

http://www.sundayherald.com/28902Disappointment with most of the existing parties stems mainly from recent massive lay-offs and bankruptcies in the private sector.

'We are hungry,' shouted an unidentified woman in front of television cameras while attending a rally of the Youth Party of businessman Cem Uzan. He himself is at the centre of controversy for the alleged failure to repay credit his mobile phone company Telsim received from cellular producers Motorola and Nokia.

He promises to 'kick the IMF out of the country', distribute free text books in schools and reduce tax rates. Many Turkish analysts, astonished by the party's unexpected rise, believe it's a result of Uzan's campaign mantra of jobs and money.

Latest opinion polls predict the party may gather up to 30% of votes in today's ballot, enabling them to set up a one-party government with a dominant majority in parliament.

'There are parties that hide their true intentions,' said Ecevit last Thursday. 'The AKP are the first to be mentioned in this regard.'

Ecevit has hinted in the past that these 'true intentions' mean replacement of the secular regime with an Islamic one.
________________
This could affect Iraq war strategy if new government
is not so friendly to western interests.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman110402.htmlDon Murphy, a technical analyst with Merrill Lynch speaking on CNBC says, "My view is that I like gold as an investment. I'm inclined to think that gold is making a secular low, a buy of a generation!" He went on to say, "To be conservative, I'm going to say $450 to $550, but my thought is that gold could go back and challenge the levels we saw in 1980-81 at $850 an ounce!"
____________
Good read

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/10/29/192747.shtmlLula, a friend of Castro's for 30 years, will start out slowly, says Menges, putting on a bright face until he consolidates power over the giant country's secret police and military, while securing what he wants in the way of aid from the International Monetary Fund.

Then, watch out, advises Menges, who notes that already � shortly after his election � Lula has started "sporting a little red star in his lapel."
________
Now sporting a little red star!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/feketendx.htmlM E M O R A N D U M

TO: The Right Honorable Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister, Malaysia
FROM: J. Douglas Bowey and Antal E. Fekete
SUBJECT: Islamic Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham Initiative
DATE: 1 November 2002

______________________________________________________________________________________

Authors of the Islamic Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham initiative are to be congratulated for their ingenuity, courage, and timing on designing and instituting an international monetary system based on hard money. The following points may be useful to further improve the efficiency of this bold initiative inaugurated by Malaysia.



No Monetary Role for Gold and Silver without Free Coinage. The Gold Dinar and the Silver Dirham will not be money and can't have any monetary role until and unless at least one government officially opens the Mint to gold (silver). This means "free coinage of gold (silver)," that is to say, the Mint must stand ready to convert gold into Gold Dinars (and silver into Silver Dirhams) in unlimited quantities free of charge, on the account of anyone tendering the right amount and fineness of gold (silver). In the absence of this commitment, the Dinar and the Dirham, just like the U.S. Gold and Silver Eagles, will remain souvenirs and keepsakes, having no monetary role to play whatsoever. They will not enter into monetary circulation, and will not be used for accounting purposes. This is one of the critical points missed by virtually all hard-money advocates today. It goes without saying that all taxes, duties, imposts, restrictions on the import and export of gold and silver must be abolished and declared unconstitutional.



First Step: Open the Mint to Silver. As the IMF has imposed a ban on monetizing gold (but not silver), for tactical reasons it might be advisable to test first by declaring the Mint open to silver only. This would have the effect of attracting capital in the form of silver to countries with a Mint open to silver. A bill market would spring to life more or less spontaneously. It would then finance the production and distribution of crude oil and other important commodities in terms of the Dirham. There is no need unnecessarily to affront and offend the U.S. by declaring the dollar ineligible for billing crude oil deliveries. However, opening the Mint to silver would be just as effective in puncturing the balloon of dollar-hegemony. The dollar would start fading away as the trading currency of the world.



Second Step: Open the Mint to Gold. Once the principle of billing in Silver Dirhams is accepted, as a second step, the Mints can be declared open to gold as well. IMF fulminations notwithstanding, Islamic and other countries can go safely ahead with their gold and silver circulation and bill markets trading bills payable in gold and silver, because the denial of IMF dollar-credits can no longer hurt them. They will be able to attract all the capital they want in terms of gold and silver.



Third Step: Finance the Trade in Crude Oil with Gold Bills. A gold bill is just an invoice evidencing the sale of goods in urgent demand (such as crude oil, grain and other agricultural commodities, copper, etc.) by the producer to the distributor. It has to be "accepted" by the latter, must mature in 91 days or less without the possibility of extension, and it must be payable in Dinars at maturity. The bill is a "self-liquidating" instrument. This means that, at maturity, the bill is paid out of the proceeds of the disposal of the underlying merchandise by the distributor. A spontaneous trading in gold bills will spring up. In the bill market, outstanding gold bills are bought and sold at a discount, which depends on the number of days left to maturity and the discount rate. The discount rate varies inversely with the "propensity to spend." The greater the demand for the underlying merchandise, the lower is the discount rate. Sellers of bills are those who have salable merchandise to ship; buyers of bills are those who have short-term liquid funds to invest. The discount rate may move up or down in such a way as to facilitate the clearing of outstanding bills in the market. The discount rate should not be mistaken for a rate of interest, as explained in (9) below.



Making the Banks Irrelevant. The beauty of the plan is that it can bypass any and all banks that may be suspected of affiliation with or allegiance to the big multinational dollar banks. Banks are irrelevant to the bill market trading gold bills. There is no need to establish new dinar banks and train personnel either; that would take years. The spontaneous bill market trading of dinar bills would be a more than adequate replacement for financing domestic and world trade.



Attracting Capital from Abroad. Here is the mechanism whereby a country that has opened its Mint to gold can attract capital. The Central Bank stands ready to rediscount gold dinar bills at the posted rediscount rate. A higher rediscount rate will attract gold to the Mint resulting in a capital inflow. A lower rediscount rate will expel gold from the country, allowing capital to seek higher returns abroad. Foreigners will send in gold in response to a higher rediscount rate as they want to hold the most liquid short-term instrument: the gold bill of exchange.



Wages Must Be Payable in Gold Dinar and/or in Silver Dirham. In order to facilitate dinar and dirham circulation, employers must be requested to pay wages in Dinar or Dirham. Employers get Dinars and Dirhams by selling their gold bills in the bill market, or by rediscounting them at the Central Bank. The workers will spend their dinars and dirhams on consumer goods. The circle is now complete: the consumer's coin is paying the bill at maturity, by which time the underlying consumer good is sold in exchange for the dinar or dirham.



Bimetallism Would Be a Mistake. Do not fix the bimetallic ratio between the Gold Dinar and the Silver Dirham. Let the market find and adjust the proper ratio, whenever necessary, without government intervention.



Islamic Law Banning Usury and Interest. It must be clear that there is no lending or borrowing, nor interest paying and taking, involved in bill trading. The function of the bill market is not lending; it is clearing. The producer bills the distributor for merchandise shipped, with "terms: 91 days net." The important point to grasp is that the producer is not a lender; and the distributor is not a borrower. The term 91 days net is part of the contract. Hardly any distributor pays cash to the producer for merchandise shipped for resale. Bills circulate spontaneously before maturity; the producer may use them to pay his suppliers, who will be glad to take the bills in payment for the supplies shipped. Alternatively, the producer may discount his bills in the bill market for cash. The transaction has nothing to do with lending and borrowing at interest. Discounting bills is part of the process of clearing. In more detail, discounting is an essential part of the trade in consumer goods. The amount of discount is of the same character as the markup on merchandise representing overhead and profit of the merchant, allowable charges under Islamic Law. The amount of discount depends (1) on the number of days the bill has to run before maturity; and (2) on the discount rate. The discount rate is not an interest rate. The former reflects the propensity to consume; the latter the propensity to save, the relation in either case being inverse. That is, the higher the propensity the lower is the rate and vice versa.


Note that gold distribution and the bill market are just the two sides of the same coin: neither could stand without the support of the other. In order to make the gold dinar an instrument of world trade, there must be a complementary bill market.


We would be pleased to answer any questions derived from this MEMORANDUM, or to act as consultants and/or advisors to Governments that are courageous enough to implement a plan to open the mint to silver and/or gold.


J. DOUGLAS BOWEY is a Private Merchant Banker living in Los Angeles, California. He has traveled extensively and lived in the Islamic world. Bowey's specialty is strategic alliance finance.


ANTAL E. FEKETE is Professor Emeritus (Mathematics), Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada. He is a world-class economist specializing in monetary science and history. He lives between St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, and Budapest, Hungary. He has written extensively. A portion of his writings may be seen on the website www.goldisfreedom.com.


J. DOUGLAS BOWEY and ANTAL E. FEKETE have recently joined forces to create an opportunity. Together they will now begin to offer this opportunity (methodology) to "select" Central Banks/Governments. This methodology allows Central Banks/Governments to continually increase their gold and silver reserve holdings, with minimal risk, without the use of "financial engineering," and while retaining full physical control of those reserves.


BOWEY and/or FEKETE may be contacted through:

J. Douglas Bowey and Associates
Beverly Hills, CA
Email: jdbanda@aol.com


the above link gets u to Antal E. Fekete works on gold eagle step 3 above comes from this essay BILLS OF THE GOLDSMITH whic can be accesed thru the link above!

http://community.webshots.com/photo/39393408/39393800PgVcBufree gold ...... open the mint
my new motto

Seeing a nation of one, and GR2, side-by-side -- you've arrived in time to see the best at work. Coax them a wee bit, and there'll be entertainment for the months of waiting.

Ah, but then, there were once Giants, and here was Valhalla...

http://www-dept.usm.edu/~engdept/jack/h.htmAfter reading about the $3 trillion dollar pile of fiat that reached to the moon (courtesy of mas yesterday) I thought about that old fairytale, Jack and the Beanstalk. For anyone like me who's head swims whenever I try to follow the golden shell games described by Ari and others the simple tale of Jack vs. the Giant is a refreshing reminder that the Giant will be vanquished and gold restored to its rightful place.

The link is for a 1820 version of the tale. Recommended reading for a quiet Sunday.

Genoo (11/03/02; 09:02:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 88684)
Scam/ Double Scam/ Corruption/ Conflict of Interest... and More
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/03/business/yourmoney/03OXLE.html?pagewanted=3

Gretchen Morgenson takes the blinders off some of the dynamics to do with the Sarbanes-Oxley bill.

"To many investors, Michael G. Oxley is the Ohio Republican who put partisan politics aside and helped write legislation meant to restore investor confidence after the worst spate of corporate misconduct since the 1929 crash. "We will not tolerate those whose greed and deception damage not only our financial marketplace but also our good will," Mr. Oxley said as President Bush signed the Sarbanes-Oxley bill into law in July. "Not just money, but character, counts in America," he added.

"But in fact, Mr. Oxley, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and one of the best friends that the industry has in Washington, has worked hard to keep it from facing new regulation intended to protect investors. Early in the process, he opposed the legislation that would become Sarbanes-Oxley, preferring a softer approach to accounting overhaul. And he shrugged off the conflicts of interest among Wall Street analysts until that issue became unavoidable....

Most recently, he opposed the nomination of a strong investor advocate to an accounting oversight board created by the legislation he helped to write. Instead, Mr. Oxley supported William H. Webster, whose selection for the post is now the subject of multiple investigations...

Mr. Oxley's role as reformer, according to people who have dealt with him over the years, is decidedly out of character. As an industry champion, he and his political action committee receive large contributions from Wall Street firms, banks and the accounting profession. He and his staff also travel widely at the expense of financial services companies and their lobbyists....

"Mike Oxley is one of the nicest members of Congress," said Arthur Levitt, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and author of "Take On the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Don't Want You to Know." "But everyone in the securities industry recognizes him as a stalwart friend who will stand in the way of almost every investor reform. He was uncomfortable with just about every pro-investor thing we did."

With Harvey L. Pitt, the current S.E.C. chairman, under heavy fire to resign after a series of political gaffes, and his agency in disarray, some investors are growing concerned that their desires for additional overhaul are not being recognized in Washington.

Now Mr. Oxley came to help write an overhaul bill that he had initially opposed is a familiar story to Washington watchers. Like many other politicians, Mr. Oxley sensed that after WorldCom's collapse in an accounting scandal, Washington had to do something to protect shareholders from corporate and accounting chicanery...

Now the consensus has shifted back to a belief that corporate malfeasance was limited to a handful of companies, said Charles Lewis, executive director of the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit research group that monitors money in politics. In such a climate, Mr. Oxley felt comfortable working to scuttle the nomination of John H. Biggs, former chairman of the giant TIAA-CREF pension fund, to the accounting oversight board. Mr. Webster, who got the job, is now under a cloud for his membership on the audit committee of U.S. Technologies, a company facing accusations of fraud....

"Webster is the tough cop that the job demands," Mr. Oxley said when Mr. Webster was appointed on Oct. 25.

On Friday, Mr. Oxley reiterated his support. He declined to comment for this article, but a spokeswoman said that Mr. Oxley "has a long record of accomplishment on behalf of individual investors."

But Mr. Lewis of the Center for Public Integrity said: "Millions of Americans have lost their nest eggs or seen their retirement savings diminished, and we're getting political rhetoric from Washington that it's a few bad apples. The idea that after all this Washington did a collective yawn is nothing short of offensive. The only people they seem to be talking to are the people who funnel the money to their campaigns or who don't want to be regulated."


Financial corporations and their lobbyists also help pay for trips for Mr. Oxley, his wife, Pat, and James Conzelman, his chief of staff, to destinations like Cape Cod, Edinburgh, Stockholm, Venice and Rome. These trips are sponsored by nonprofit organizations like the Invest to Compete Alliance, a group that represents accounting firms; and the Ripon Educational Fund, a Republican public policy organization. As long as they are related to work, such trips are allowed under government ethics rules, which bar gifts worth more than $50 to lawmakers. The total cost of these trips was $43,000 for Mr. and Mrs. Oxley and Mr. Conzelman since 2000...

"Groups like that are often used to bring members of the industry together in very soothing surroundings so the members can hear the industry's concern," said Larry Noble, a former general counsel of the Federal Election Commission and executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a group that tracks political spending. "The fundamental problem here is these members of Congress work for all of us and what these contributions and special arrangements provide is for a select group to get in and get the ears of the members and tell them what's important to them. It's not access that the rest of us have."



Comment: Right..and I believe in the tooth fairy. Thank God for Eliot Spitzer.

Speaking of Attila the Canadian, I learned recently that Attila the Hun had a brother, Attila the Hunny, whose hobby was to like unmarried women, many of whom later married other men and established families of their own, in part because of their friendships with Mr. Hunny. And of course we all remember about Attila's younger brother, Untilla, who got sent home from the lootings because he was always late; their sister, Scintilla; and Antilles, their cousins' mother, who, by suspicious coincidence, lived on an island chain of the same name.

At one point, Attila the Hun was able to demand -and get- more than 2,000 pounds of gold each year, in addition to a settlement of 6,000 pounds of gold for alleged arrears, just so he wouldn't invade Rome. [This is confirmed by the Encyclopaedia Brittanica, 1970, and one other source.]

www.kitco.comIf the chart were a heart monitor , it would show the heartbeat of a healthy patient...

the patient will surely rise ....for good cause...

The shapers of monetary policy should have followed the credo the physicians in this country must ascribe to
DO NO HARM.......

People who seek Power usually do it because they are not apart of THE REAL POWER...

THE LOVE OF MONEY is usually driving those that seek power...

It has been referred to as the ROOT of all evil....

Under that comes BRIBERY which has been legislated into being by our greedy lawmakers and is now referred to as LOBBYING.....

TOday , being what it is , I'm going to share some things the BIBLE says about BRIBERY which is very germain to the WHY OF THE eoncomic condition our condition is in ......and also points to the showdown coming between GOLD and the DOLLAR.. Mr OXLEY for who he is got his priorities right when he stated CHARACTER is Important in America ...right behind MONEY .

Proverbs 17:23 A wicked man taketh a gift out of the bosom to pervert the ways of judgment.
Proverbs 29:4 The king by judgment establisheth the land: but he that recieveth gifts overthoweth it.



He who hath the GOLD makes the RULES....that may be a bad omen in the future and a monument to what could have been had our rulers not been driven by GREED>...The future of the US in the world's eyes will be a reflection of it's past as told by Eastern Anti American influences...
This will also determine a lessening influence The US may have because of global peoples skewed perception of America... Reading this website has been an eyeopener .....and what I have learned in part has made me sick to my stocmach...Pride cometh before the fall and HOW GREAT IS THAT FALL GOING TO BE???????????

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&StoryID=1672805"I think the strength of AKP will scare some people," Marco Annunziata of Deutsche Bank in London said. "I am positively impressed by the fact that they seem to realize there's only one way forward for Turkey, which is continuing the pro-Western stance and continuing with the economic reforms."

"I have two concerns. One is they are somewhat new to power and this will make people a bit nervous. Two, perhaps the strength of their victory could lead them to be a bit more daring than otherwise," he said.

The AKP, formed only a year ago from the "modern" wing of a party banned for Islamist subversion, is itself a coalition of forces. Its program and leading figures appear committed to secularist principles but there are surely some elements that hanker still to introduce religious tenets in politics and law.

That balance could be put to the test over time, if AKP assumes office alone with a large majority.

Erdogan warned his supporters against any brash actions, at the same time sending a message of reassurance to the powerful military. He even made a reference to secularist state founder Ataturk -- something that would raise eyebrows among rivals.

"My particular request, especially to AKP friends, is this: Let absolutely no one take actions that would upset public order, endanger security or upset anyone," he told a news conference.

Turkey's first Islamist-led government was driven from power in 1997 after a year by an army-led campaign. Few expect that sort of turmoil after Sunday's vote. The military would wait and see what an AKP government would do in practice.
_______________
More problems for IMF. Like the rest of the world they hate the
IMF policies!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2393685.stmCentral to the concept of Islamic banking is Islam's prohibition of Usury.

In effect this means that charging interest, or making loans with the promise of a fixed return is forbidden.

So is making excess profit.

Banks must instead take a share of the profit or loss made by those they lend to.

Supporters say this makes them less prone to lend rashly and less ready to demand their money back when times get tough for borrowers.

Nor can Islamic funds invest in products that would be considered unethical by Muslims; alcohol, gambling, pornography, tobacco or weapons.

Those behind the launch of the IFSB hope that by promoting good practice and stability in the sector it will give Muslims the confidence to invest their wealth in a way that reflects Islamic values.
_____________________
Major news story on BBC page. No mention of Gold or Silver
but Malaysia is the driving force here apparently. The group
wants to implement Islamic values in financial dealings.
One of these not mentioned is the Zakat.It must be paid in Gold Dinars and Silver Dirhams. No paper money is allowed for Zakat!

Is it perhaps that Scintilla who converted , to her brothers discontent, and became Scintilla the Nun.

NEMO

Thanks steady for posting the A. Fekete memorandum on gold/dinar - silver/dirrham.

But...
Another's thoughts seem much simplier to me as to FREE Gold and replace the previous unworkable gold-standard :
"Free" Gold, being money (not metal), "physically" traded under *new*, national or international agreements.
Free, physical, Gold, totally "independant" from the paper contract business. When no paper-contract can lead to any obligation of physical delivery/settlement...the paper trade will soon be abondened ? Mould this into a law, before or after the paper market explosion.

For this to happen, we need a currency (euro) that associates itself with Gold in a very simple way : an euro as good as Gold ! Let the public make its own choice between the euro currency or physical Gold as a store of wealth. Let the public decide if and when they trust the euro-management or the physical Gold certainty. A FREE choice, guaranteed with honest, protective, and above all, *courageous", laws !
And, indeed, the introduction of gold-coins as legal tender are a step into that direction.

The currency that would bring up that courage to be judged by the public with Free Gold, is imvho, an unmistakable winner. Currencies (US$), shouldn't fight the Gold force, but join it.

Oil producers (ME) could make a start with this by *openly* demanding Gold in exchange for reasonably priced crude oil !
It suffice that only one single country with significant oil-reserves, should start doing this. Others would follow immediately.

But intuitively we feel that a catastrophic financial collapse must take place as to let monetary disorder flow into a new Gold order. I do think we are on our way to it, though in the very early stage of it. We are still in the complacent mood that we can *print* our way out of it. The swelling confetti-mountains, haven't resulted in any kind of price-inflation. Compressed Confetti bricks, still fill the dyke holes. A good Billion of Eastern workers still provide the West with real goods and services in exchange for printed paper confetti, and in this way, helping the West, holding back on price-inflation within a murderous competition arena. This systemic defense has its limits.

In the Eastern part of our globe, paper-gold, is worthless.
The East wants the physical Gold in possession and might force our Western papergold contract business out of fashion. What will happen to LBMA, when the UK finally joins EMU and LBMA falls under Euroland's jurisdiction !?
The same might happen with the crude-oil paper market, 30 to 40 times bigger than the underlying physical oil market ?

Make your paper bets, but you can never claim physical settlement for it ! As any goldmine share cannot be used to claim physical Gold. Let Gold be exchangeble for a Gold friendly currency that has the courage to set Gold FREE !


Thanks steady, for having brought Fekete and Co, on the forum.

DUBAI, Nov. 3 � Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. regional ally, said on Sunday it would not allow the United States to use its facilities for any attack against neighboring Iraq, even if a strike was sanctioned by the United Nations.

Brilliant.

Gold. --- Ari

(Still on the run... only time to say, "Thanks!")

Around 430, Rua the Hun made a treaty with the Eastern Romans (the Empire had split in the mid-200s), by which the Huns would be paid a tribute of 350 pounds of gold per year (Priscus, cited in Thompson, E.A. "The Huns," p.177). In 435, under joint leadership of Attila and his brother Bleda, the tribute paid to the Huns by the East Romans was increased to 700 pounds per year (Priscus). After a major battle in 443 (in the Chersonesus), still under leadership of Attila and Bleda, a new new treaty was signed by the Eastern Roman Emperor Anatolius. Under its terms, "...6,000 pounds of were to be paid in a lump sum as arrears of tribute, and the annual payment trebled, that is, the Huns now received 2,100 pounds of gold every year (Thompson, E.A. "The Huns," p.177) About 2 years later, Attila murdered his brother Bleda.

Earlier, about 408, a major band of Huns under the leader Uldin invaded the Eastern Empire. At this time, "...we find the Huns selling off their prisoners at 1 (gold) solidus a head. In 435, they had the right of disposing of their Roman prisoners at 8 solidi a head, and this was raised to 12 solidi in 443 (Ibid., ISBN: 0-631-15899-5)

Attila died about 453. Within 20 years of his death, Hunnic power structures had collapsed. As Hunnic power collapsed, Gothic groups, which had played a subordinate role in Hunnic power for about 50 years, moved to the fore and probably absorbed most of the Huns' gold in the process.

They also began receiving payment in gold from the Eastern Roman Empire:
"...by 470 the Thracian Goths held a deeply priviliged position within the east Roman state...In 473, for instance, their pay and ration allowances allowances were together worth 2,000pounds of of gold per annum (Malchus fr. 2, p.408. 22ff): seven times the subsidy extracted by the Pannonian Goths in the early 460s (Heather, Peter "The Goths" Blackwell, 1998, p. 153)

belgian ok i try to repond to your heavyweight posts !

first regarding this

For this to happen, we need a currency (euro) that associates itself with Gold in a very simple way : an euro as good as Gold ! Let the public make its own choice between the euro currency or physical Gold as a store of wealth. Let the public decide if and when they trust the euro-management or the physical Gold certainty. A FREE choice, guaranteed with honest, protective, and above all, *courageous", laws !
And, indeed, the introduction of gold-coins as legal tender are a step into that direction.

i agree there there should be a free choice for people to make. personally i think gold woul dwin hands down. but they have to have a large supply of gold and silver prior to this implamentation as A. Fekete points out there has to be a complete circle for gold to circulate as money ie workers paid in it and suppliers using it to sell products and recievers using ot to buy prodcuts and again how do u make change for gold? silver!
here is another link to support your theory about a dual monetary system at first
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/tlaga072902.html


next u post
Oil producers (ME) could make a start with this by *openly* demanding Gold in exchange for reasonably priced crude oil !
It suffice that only one single country with significant oil-reserves, should start doing this. Others would follow immediately.

for this to happen well are not the major oil producer s somehow tied into the imf? so they have to devise an exit startegy from the imf before they can do that. i think the first step is accumulation of gold lots of it . second say they sell there oil in gold how do they make change for that gold? silver so silver needs to be involved someway somehow?

next u post
But intuitively we feel that a catastrophic financial collapse must take place as to let monetary disorder flow into a new Gold order. I do think we are on our way to it, though in the very early stage of it. We are still in the complacent mood that we can *print* our way out of it. The swelling confetti-mountains, haven't resulted in any kind of price-inflation. Compressed Confetti bricks, still fill the dyke holes. A good Billion of Eastern workers still provide the West with real goods and services in exchange for printed paper confetti, and in this way, helping the West, holding back on price-inflation within a murderous competition arena. This systemic defense has its limits.
yes especially when the asian consciousness allready views silver and gold as money. and along the same line what happens when they start converting ever more and more paper dolars of all curruencies asain and us$ into gold /silver. especially the central bansks. even if it is temporary to force the papermarkets underwater and hasten there demise.

i didnt know id need a degree in financial banking /derivaties to understand gold heck i dint know what i was getting myself into but so far so good.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!
free gold.... open the mint!

http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2002/2002_40-52/2002-42/this_wk.htmlGoing into the Nov. 5 mid-term elections in the United States, we are facing the worst financial collapse within living memory, and an Administration in the thrall of Chickenhawks determined to take the country and the world into disastrous perpetual war, starting with Iraq. For the time being, the war drive is jammed up in the United Nations, thanks to the French and the Russians, who have so far rejected the most provocative features of the war resolution submitted to the UN Security Council by the United States and Great Britain.

As Lyndon LaRouche said in his Oct. 19 webcast, a dramatic change will occur as a result of the Nov. 5 elections. LaRouche emphasized that "we don't know exactly what's going to happen, except we know this Nov. 5 election will be a phase-shift in internal [U.S.] politics, and therefore, in international politics."

What is fundamentally driving this situation, is the onrushing global financial collapse�the most dramatic feature of which, as has emerged into consciousness of those watching the situation, is the simultaneous collapse of the banking systems of the United States, Germany, and Japan. As Richard Freeman reported in last week's issue of EIW:

"Never in post-World War II memory, have the banking-financial systems of the three major economic powers�the United States, Japan, and Germany�experienced such crises simultaneously. Combined, these banking systems possess between two-fifths and two-thirds of the assets of the world's banking system. The breakdown conjuncture of these nations' interconnected bank systems defines a crisis point of the world financial system...."

Cytek

The death of Attila caused a terrible grief and mourning among Huns. However, he had reached to the eternal state in the memories of the nations. According to the rumours, he was put within three coffins one within the other. The first coffin was made of gold that was shining like the sun since he was the sun of Huns. The second coffin was made of silver that was shining like the comae of the comet since he was a comet that was rarely seen. The third coffin was made of steel that was tempered twice since he was as strong as steel.
Upon the organisation of a great mourning ceremony, this three-layered coffin that was made of gold, silver and steel was buried in one of the isles of Tisza River together with the weapons and valuable materials of Attila. This little isle was digged in depth and then, the riverbed was diverted and the river ran over it. Therefore, nobody would be able to find his tomb and plunder it. Actually, it has not been found yet.

With the passing of Attila, the remaining Huns centralized the meat of their empire to a village sandwiched between the Alps, near Bamberg. To this day they are known as "The Bamberger Huns". Doh!

http://stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5673538&t=0&all=0 leID=0Another good article on the up and coming banking collapse. Here's the highlights.
Fact #1
From the beginning of the year to the recent trough, Morgan Stanley lost a staggering 64% of its total market cap � or $24 billion ... FleetBoston lost 46.6% or $18.2 billion ... and Citigroup shares fell 33%, for a $75 billion loss.

This collapse is too big and too swift to write off as merely the whims of speculators. It is driven by fundamental forces that threaten to impact every aspect of your financial life.

Fact #2
Massive layoffs are the second warning bell of banking troubles ahead. It means that bank managers themselves are finally recognizing the decline is not a flash in the pan. It is fundamental, long term, and spreading rapidly. That's why ...
As BlackBlade posts,"things are looking pretty grim".

Fact #3
Revenues Are Plunging!

Fact #4
Commercial Banks Now Face Staggering Loan Losses

J.P. Morgan Chase, the nation's largest corporate lender, announced in September that its losses from bad loans in the third quarter would more than quadruple � rocketing up from $302 million in the second quarter to $1.4 billion in the third!

Fact #5
The Credit Card Bubble Is About To Bust!
Next on the horizon: All major US banks will get slammed with escalating losses from the largest credit card bubble of all time!

Fact #6
391 US Banks Embroiled In Derivatives With A Face Value Of Over $50 Trillion!
Right now, J.P. Morgan Chase has total derivative positions in excess of $25 trillion � or more than 2.5 times the entire gross domestic product of the United States. Bank of America has $10 trillion; Citibank, $7.2 trillion; Wachovia Bank, $2.1 trillion; and Wells Fargo, $790 billion. All told, 391 US banks have derivatives with a total "notional" or face value in excess of $50 trillion!
Here's What To Watch Out For In The Next Several Months

Fact #7
Two weeks ago Freddie Mac told the banks that deal with them that all re-financing loans starting November 15th will not allow any home equity loans unless the owner has at least 50% equity. If the home owner has less than 50% there will be a point system based on their equity position.

A major bank failure could be the catalyst for a meltdown of the US stock market. Here's how:

First, expect more corporate failures and bankruptcies, including multi-billion-dollar companies in business for decades.

Second, each bankruptcy will cause a whole new series of serious losses for banks.

Third, in anticipation of those losses, expect the shares of major banks to plunge another 50% or more.

Fourth, the collapse in bank stocks will merely be the vanguard for a similar collapse in the Dow and the Nasdaq.

Finally, don't be surprised to see some major bank failures, fueled by a derivatives disaster or by corporate bankruptcies.

When that happens, all bets are off!

Cytek
All i can say is keep accumulating physical Gold and Silver while you can.

I appreciate your response to my 2:00 a.m. PUI (posting under the influence).

I agree with you about more office workers and the paper they produce being subject to even more layoffs. As an ex-office worker ("ex" definitely by choice!), I'm thinking about looking for some part time (freelance) office work here in the area where I recently moved. Fortunately (or unfortunately?) I'll be working with attorneys. I am trusting that they've rigged the game enough to where some of them will stay in business!

Speaking of layoffs, I've wondered for ages whether the federal government ever lays off people? Or do they just keep adding to the rosters? In that vein, I heard a blip on TV tonight about the current administration wanting to privatize some of its jobs as a cost saving measure. What puzzles me...is that they're talking about the ARMY. I think they were speaking of all types of "office" jobs, etc. Now, I asked myself, why would they start with the Army instead of Social Security, Medicare, IRS, etc.?

Maybe there's a rational explanation, like the Army employing far more non-military personnel than other sectors of the government? But my semi-suspicious mind couldn't help thinking of the current administration's ties to the defense industry (a la Carlyle Group) as a possible factor. Would those contracts be worth enough that some big business friends would want them? Moving to privatize part of the military just as we're on the brink of a possible long-term military entanglement...just seems odd to me. Oh well, much seems odd to me. (As you can tell, I'm a novice to political intrigue!)

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,4386,152893,00.html?Snippit:
"Eight Muslim nations launched a global agency yesterday to set standards for an Islamic financial system that will end 'debt slavery', said Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Dr Mahathir, addressing 1,000 delegates from the Muslim world, said a hallmark of the Islamic system is that risk is shared equally between lender and borrower. The global system stacks deals heavily in favour of lenders, he said, and some nations end up in 'debt slavery'. 'They are not going to lend if they cannot gain control over their borrowers in order to recover their loans, irrespective of the misery this might cause,' he said. 'Clearly, debt slavery has not been abolished in the international financial system.' Bankers say rising demand for ethical investments cuts across religions. Non-Muslims are increasingly active investors in Islamic instruments.

Waverider: ~Blackjack - this article from an Asian website states Usury for what it is - "debt-slavery" - a bit of a different perspective from the BBC article. Cheers!

http://www.vrc.net.au/mcc/hm_history.aspGood posts - brings the problems of these banks concisely together in a stark summary.

I have a feeling like being in the lull before a storm. I wonder how future economic scenarios will depend, if at all, upon the outcome of the elections? Should Bush lose control of the house and/or the senate, will this force him to devote a much larger effort on the economy rather than the WOT and the looming War on Iraq? If he gains control of the senate and retains control in the house, what does this mean?

Or is it all unfolding in an interlinked, unstoppable drama. After all, he already has authority to wage war at his discretion.

What would we do if we were George Dubya Bush?



Incidentally, on Tuesday the US has elections...Australia has the Melbourne Cup "the race that stops the nation". Note that the winner's trophy is a GOLD cup, although the accompanying fiat prize has a much larger monetary value (see link).

Snip:

"Since 1980 the VRC has commissioned Hardy Brothers Jewellers to create the Melbourne Cup each year. With it's distinctive shape, the gold, three-handled �Loving-Cup� design has been in use 1919 and is an internationally recognised symbol of Australasian racing."

Sundeck

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/10/31/MN52875.DTL
State economic woes take toll on homeowners

Snippit:

In a sign that the state's moribund economy has taken its toll on Bay Area homeowners and may finally cool the region's overheated housing market, local home loan foreclosure filings leaped nearly 21 percent in the past quarter. The rise in filings was the Bay Area's fourth consecutive double-digit jump, a real estate information service said Wednesday. Santa Clara and Alameda counties recorded the largest percentage increases in foreclosures -- 36.4 percent and 32.1 percent respectively. Foreclosures fell in both San Francisco and Marin counties.

"It takes a while for financial stress to show up in the mortgage defaults, because lenders and borrowers alike will make every effort to work things out, " said Tom Lieser, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "It could be that we're beginning to see the impact of people who have been unemployed for a long time." Indeed, unemployment in the San Jose metropolitan area is among the highest in the country, at 7.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And in September alone, San Francisco lost more than 35,000 jobs.

Others say the true number of homes in foreclosure may be masked by bankruptcy, because when a homeowner files for Chapter 13 the foreclosure proceedings are usually put on hold. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, Chapter 13 filings nationwide in the second quarter increased 6.7 percent over the same quarter last year. "With a bankruptcy, the lender is stopped in place," said Bruce Hasson, a Fremont real estate attorney who represents banks and creditors. "Sometimes the arrears are spread out over three to five years."


Black Blade: �We haven't seen anything yet. Just give it time and we will see wholesale foreclosures. It is hard to have any sympathy for these people though. There is no excuse to get into debt and then to get even deeper in debt. Always plan ahead and have an escape plan. New bankruptcy laws are geared against the homeowner and the consumer. When the new laws go into effect bankruptcy won't be an option for most people. First it will be the peoples� problem, and later it will be the banks problem. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for just such possibilities, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and definitely start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Most of the people referred to in the article only have themselves to blame.

http://www.iht.com/articles/75695.html
Currency briefly slips to euro parity after indicators point to new U.S. slump

Snippit:

LONDON The dollar briefly fell below parity with the euro on Friday for the first time since July, amid a series of weak U.S. economic reports that raised the prospect of a "double-dip" recession. Indications that the United States may be headed for a renewed slump have piled up over the last week, with weakness spreading from manufacturing to employment to consumer spending. The bad news culminated Friday with reports of a rising jobless rate and softness in a variety of other indicators. "It's given the euro - by default, almost - a chance to test parity despite pretty awful fundamentals in the euro zone," said Neil MacKinnon, chief economist at ECU Group in London. Indeed, the dollar's decline was widespread, suggesting that the euro's brief surge above $1 was more about disappointment with the U.S. economy than any enthusiasm about Europe.

The Fed has already lowered its key rate to 1.75 percent, but economic growth remains weak, and some economists are worried about a return to recession. The central bank's aggressive action has, however, sharpened the discrepancy between interest rates in the United States and Europe, where the European Central Bank has been loath to follow suit. The prospect of a further rate cut by the Fed may be one reason why the dollar fell Friday, MacKinnon said. Lower interest rates generally mean lower returns for investors, and the difference between yields on U.S. and European government bonds has grown in recent weeks to more than half a percentage point. To be sure, the ECB may also have to cut rates soon, analysts say, because economic conditions are also deteriorating in the 12-country euro zone.

Black Blade: "No where to run and nowhere to hide" � Aretha Franklin

The global recession is only going to get worse. The fundamentals everywhere are at best "grim". Alan Greenspan and company are almost out of bullets, and then what? Deflation? Maybe fire up the presses and then what? Inflation or Stagflation? This is the end game people!

Seems like you're doing just fine, using a combination of PUI and common sense. Once you reverse the telescope, and start thinking of USG as a wholly-owned subsidiary of whatever business groups are on top of the heap this decade, you get the logic of all they do.

Took lots of peasants to build up those pyramids (or else aliens with anti-gravity forklifts!)

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAKSR4818D.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (AP) - Federal regulators say accounting giant Ernst & Young misstated the assets of a failed Chicago-area savings and loan and deliberately delayed reporting the error to the government. The allegation came Friday in a $548 million fraud and negligence lawsuit filed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. It said the accounting firm was silent about the misstated assets to avoid publicity that would hurt the $11 billion sale of its consulting arm.

Federal regulators seized Superior in July 2001. The thrift was the biggest insured U.S. financial institution to fail in nearly a decade. The lawsuit said the cost to the FDIC of paying depositors was $750 million. Superior had lost millions of dollars on risky home loans to borrowers with tarnished credit. In January 2001, after lengthy denials, Ernst & Young acknowledged that Superior's assets had been overstated by $270 million, according to the lawsuit. It said further investigation showed the thrift's assets had to be lowered by an additional $150 million. The complaint outlined "a long history of breaching duties owed to the FDIC and other regulatory agencies" on the part of Ernst & Young.


Black Blade: It appears that yet another scam accounting firm is on the ropes for engaging in fraud. No better than Arthur Andersen. Well, what do ya know. Former shareholders of Superior just might have a case for lawsuits of their own against Ernst & Young as they can argue that they lost their investment due to at best shoddy accounting and at worst outright fraud. Hmmm�

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APcYHaxUEQWxhc2thSnippit:
"A magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck central Alaska, shutting down the 800-mile oil pipeline that connects the oil fields at the north coast of the state with the ports on the south coast. The pipeline's support structure closest to the epicenter of the earthquake sustained damage, Mike Heatwole, a spokesman for Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., said in an interview. No damage had been discovered at the pipeline itself as of Sunday night, Heatwole said. Repair crews won't be able to assess until tomorrow how long it will be before the pipeline can be reopened, he said."

Waverider: ~ Black Blade - did you see this? Cheers!

http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/xml/story.ssf/html_standard.xsl?/base/business/103623331775090.xml
Snippit:

As the baby-boom generation gets older and starts thinking about retirement, the nation's oil and gas industry is worried that its supply of trained workers is running out. Through massive layoffs and consolidation over the past two decades, the industry ruptured its own pipeline of experienced geoscientists, the people in charge of finding oil and natural gas deposits around the world. The median age of America's labor force is 40, according to the Labor Department. In the oil and gas industry, the median age is 41. But Steve Holditch, president of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, emphasized that the median is closer to 50 when it comes to geoscientists, the technical experts in charge of finding petroleum deposits around the world. The aging of the industry's work force is one of the lingering consequences of mass layoffs that occurred after the price of crude oil plunged in the mid-1980s and then again in the late 1990s. Tens of thousands of geologists, geophysicists and petroleum engineers left the industry, and many never returned. Industrywide consolidation furthered this trend, creating a generation gap at many petroleum companies.


Black Blade: The skills needed to find and produce petroleum barely exists in the US today. The nations universities do not produce graduates for this type of career anymore and most former professionals have left the industry to never return. When the energy crunch comes, this problem alone will mean less domestic oil and gas production. The same goes for the mining industry as well. The energy and mining companies really only have themselves to blame of course.

http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor318280For hungry minds only.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021104/0028000013_2.html
I didn't see that. Japan just had an earth quake today as well.

Rock and Roll!!!

- Black Blade

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/2396223.stm"The Turkish lira has slumped to a record low of more than 1.7 million to the dollar after the Justice and Development Party (AKP) romped home in elections on Sunday..."

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Looks like a rocket sled ride is in store for the open on Wall Street. Market index futures indicate a very sharp rocket ride. Gold is down a buck, oil and gas prices are collapsing sharply too. The USD is leaving the foreign currencies in the dust. Yet, I have no idea why. Should be quite "entertaining" today.

- Black Blade

Tomorrow Americans vote. As Al Capone used to say:

Vote, and vote often!

- Black Blade

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Market indices worldwide are suddenly rocketing higher - much higher. This should get "interesting".

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021103/financial_pitt_3.htmlWhite House Takes Hard Look at SEC's Pitt

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House was taking a hard look at the future of top U.S. markets regulator Harvey Pitt, with control of the Senate and the outcome of a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission internal probe seen as decisive factors, Republican sources said on Sunday. President Bush could ask SEC Chairman Pitt to step down, but no such request was seen coming, if at all, until after the Nov. 5 elections, and would be less likely if the Democrats retain Senate control, sources said.


Black Blade: Apparently this is the reason for the worldwide stock market rally. The hopes of a US interest rate cut is old news.

http://www.sge.sh/en/en_default.aspThis looks like the official site of the SGE

http://www.brecorder.com/story.php?css=brecord.css&story=0000644726&m=007&s=002Snip:

"HONG KONG (November 02 2002) : The timing of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's launch this week is auspicious, three months before the Chinese New Year when people are most likely to buy the metal, but the extent of pent-up demand remains unclear."



I suspect demand will probably reflect general growth in wealth as the economy grows.

Sundeck

Wow, it's amazing how the time sails by!! Looking back over the years, if we were to sift through my own wearisome overburden of posts and opinions piled high like tailings, among them there are three primary presentations on Gold for which I'd gladly step away from the soapbox and fade quietly into the night, pledging my future silence as my reward to the paper-driven people of the world in exchange for their singular good-faith effort to read and comprehend the essence of those three.

The first is the series you pointed to from June 1999 because it helps to demonstrate how Gold's monetary relevance has in fact been maintained, behind the scenes, even as its falling price over the past twenty years was shattering confidence among the uninitiated -- many thinking that Gold was on its way to becoming a financial relic.

The second presentation is the one from February 2000, important in light of the first one because it necessarily tempers any ill-advised zeal for a return to a Gold standard that may have been fostered by misinterpretation from my own somewhat sloppy/incomplete treatment of the earlier material. It builds the case that banking is an inherently inflationary practice that effectively brings about a corruption and DEvaluation of a hard asset such as Gold if it is asked to circulate as currency at par with checkbook money. It lays out the fundamental argument that Gold will attain its highest market value only when it's universally held simply as an item of property, thus avoiding the inevitable value corruption currently being experienced due to the artificial sense of abundance naturally introduced through banking practices which were just briefly glimpsed in the first presentation.

The third presentation was the couple of posts from the latter half of October 2002, designed for those who have to "see it" and "touch it" before they'll believe it. Over the internet, this was about the closest I could come to providing brick and mortar of how the game is played to help the strong hands get meaningful loads of Gold over time at giveaway prices, knowing fully well the handsome payoff comes when the game itself collapses when the last of the weak hands have been separated from their Gold.

Call me an old softie, or call me hasty, but personally I think the game has gone on quite long enough. I tend to believe a great deal of needless suffering in many regions of the world could be avoided if Gold sooner rather than later began its meteoric rise to stardom (due to a fundamental shift to physical-based market valuation.) It would do wonders to boost the standard of living for a lot of good souls living in leaky huts who simply haven't been able to effectively mobilize resources by tapping into functional credit markets, but who have never the less been wise enough and resourceful enough to drape thin Gold chains around their necks and wrists and to stash away a few wafers of Gold. The meek shall inherit the earth.

While I can't control the timeline of the ending of this game, its a no-brainer to confidently keep on taking advantage of the opportunity while the bullion banking game continues and the Gold moves cheaply. Buy Gold and sit on it. As simple as it seems, it's the ultimate insider play.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

I had to Laugh when I saw the displayed picture of Sacagewea Dollar and Kentucky Quarter prominently displayed. Perhaps they think our "gold" dollar is actually gold?

GfG,I just retired out of the Army from a half miliary/half civilian office and can give you a little background on the blurb you heard. You're spot on - the reason is costs. Bosnia, WOT et al is expensive, even when (months later) congress authorizes more money. In the meantime, you tighten your budget belt and hope you can pay the electric bill that month. When the money does come, it goes (rightfully so) to cover the costs of the "pointy end of the spear" (i.e. the guys with the guns), leaving the support functions (logistics, administration, personnel) still short cash. These areas are also where the bulk of the civilians work. Once you've cancelled all equipment purchases, official travel, training, and put a lock on the office supply cabinet, the only place left to scrape up money is in payroll. Civilians are expensive to employ because they're gov't workers. Contractors are cheaper to employ because you don't have to worry about paying him/her all the gov't worker bennies. Personally, I don't think the Army will have much luck in privatizing their civilians - too many trotters already in the gov't trough.

This is an advance warning to ALL LURKERS !!
Preparation for an announcement by SIR MK for ANOTHER Price-of-Gold Guessing CONTEST is being made at the Castle.
It is recommended that ALL LURKERS read the requirements for obtaining a USAGOLD Forum "password" to be able to post, chose your "handle" and "get ready" for the NEXT CONTEST. After all, one can not beat the cost, IT IS FREE!
The Castle Staff are very busy, BUT may be able to squeeze in your application between trips to and from the Vaults. ( Procrastination is NOT an excuse if you miss the CONTEST and the chance for the FREE GOLD or Silver !! )
BE Prepared !
<;-)

There's a bit of discord among Board GovernorsRecently three top Federal Reserve Board governors issued a rare public statement the "Rates were low enough".

Unless they were simply flapping their lips we may see something less than consensus this week at the Fed.

If one thinks about it, these three guys have a hammer over the Chairman. See they can get any policy they want from the Master of the Universe.

All they need to do is threaten to go public with GoldGate. What could the Chairman do? Claim that Gramlich, McTear and Broaddus are lying?

In situations where a pure analytical personality type is finally confronted with the reality of an internal revolt, he capitulates at the last possible moment.

That may or may not be this time around. It depends solely upon the conviction of three men who have already said rates are low enough.

They are also implying that the bond speculators have had enough free money and that the strong dollar doesn't need any more help from falling interest rates.

Place your bets.

Like a drunken sailer on shore leave after 6 months at sea the commentators on CNBC proclaim, with great excitement, the beauty of the stock market. Never mind the woman of wall st they see has no teeth (massive job layoffs) or that she has but one leg ( Huge debts) amongst a host of other troubling signs, she is one "looker"!! (me thinks the sailer is about to get rolled)

Warning: This is a sign that the Bar on Fall St. is nearing "Closing Time"!

Funny! Sad/True but funny analogy nonetheless!Cheers!!

I was impressed to see an airing last night on Canadian national television of an individual predicting doom for the economy. Actually, I think there were more than one individual with the same sort of outlook for North America for the next few years. I apologise, for I did not pay enough attention to get their names, but one individual was comparing all sorts of things in society to the direction of the market from music to miniskirts. The outcome of the presentation was this individual telling any and all investors to pull out of the markets now!!!
I was impressed to see such a presentation on National television.

If the individual who made this presentation is part of this forum and knows of whom and what I speak, I would like to say 'helmet's off to you sir!!'

Impressive indeed!


Cheers!

RobotGuy.

I'm still rereading (studying) your blast of the past, mentioned by Lord Gresham. And with those regular WGC mails, falling into my box...I wanted to emphasize a little, big detail. Ad nauseum (!!!), the WGC, as a Gold-Promotor (???) provides us all with very detailed information (gratis) on the Gold situation in the Indian continent. Fine with me, because we are talking about that regular net-accumulator of 800 tonnes of precious physical, per year, and this year after year. An estimated total amount (???) of 10.000 tonnes is stashed overthere.

BUT...

Why is there NEVER - EVER, one single word about Arabian oil and their Gold ??? This very little, big, tiny, idiot, simple 'small, seemingly insignificant, detail...says it all, about the WGC, and what is behind it ! It isn't frustrating me (anymore) but rather amusing me, tremendously, more and more.
This is simply evidence for your (and Another's) theory on oil > Gold > dollar and now euro, as the *real* "insider's", concept ! Isn't it Sir Aristotle ?

Yesterday, there was a televized reporting about the Belgian King's visit to Saudi Arabia (and Kuwait). And when Kings do meet Kings (Belgian/Saudi), pictures speak more than a thousands words : It was ***yellow*** all over the place !!!

On top of this WGC's, India-Gold-obsession...we have the famous Mitsui intrigant, A. Smith, declaring regulary that things are changing in India and that we don't have to keep counting on them to continue taking up the physical !?
Andy, also never heard about deep desert oil to be replaced with shiny yellow. What a farce !

Two small news facts : Iran denies it is holding (arrested) Osama BL's son and Saudi Arabia officially doesn't want to co-operate on Iran's occupation.

Stubbornly and purposely NOT mentioning and totally ignoring, the association between, Gold and Oil, for the general public, as a very normal given...IS OF UTMOST SIGNIFICANCE ! And as I mentionned earlier, the whole Australian Gold production (+/- 450 tonnes) has always and still is, entirely shipped to the ME, year after year.

Thanks again Ari for those early 1999 writings of you to be found in the Hall of Fame, strongly recommended to the increasing amount of enthousiastic newbies here at USAGOLD.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlYour Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST", starting now !!

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of MONDAY the 11th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on SUNDAY, November 10th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!

To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on MONDAY November 11th ----- an ANTIQUE Golden era PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

===
Don't wait tooooo long as the guessing rush is going to start now, and YOUR price may be taken by a early entry.
<;-)

The Hobbits have to admit that they did not obtain very much gold in the 1960's, but they still have what they did obtain ! But their answer to the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" --

It is ABSOLUTELY the SAME !! Why, one asks ? Well there are times that one looks back and says to themself, "IF I HAD ONLY DONE THAT, THEN" --- !!!

THIS is one of those same times ! Just wait a few years and see how many of your NON-Goldheart friends and workers will be telling you that they were considering buying some gold, BUT ----- !! AND, then you can just smile and say, "well MAYBE another opportunity will come around in your lifetime !" YOUR family, will also realize (if they do not know now) that YOU were not "demented", but the wise one of the family. (My extended family is now begining to see the light after years of my preaching !)
<;-)

Buying gold now is much better than buying gold at $35 in the late sixties. Back then the gold window was about to close. Now, not only are the economic stresses to the system about to be much worse due to the massive amounts of debt, but gold is starting to come back into use as money. Add to the fact that since the mid-1990's the Fed has been printing $$$ like it's been growing on trees, the huge short gold position time bomb that's brewing, wars, and it's the only real financial insurance you can get.

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.htmlIt should not take too much imagination for you to picture Jonathan today, trying hard to put on a happy face following the weekend defeat of his Alma Mater. Here's a perfect chance to lift your own spirits with a gold order and to keep Jonathan too busy in the process to mourn the end of the undefeated season.

Psssst.... and if you are a Boston College fan, this is also a perfect chance to celebrate with a gold order, and use the chance to taunt poor Jonathan with your victory. (Don't worry, I think he can handle the ribbing).

R.

I thought I had better jump in and get this guess before the number is taken.
$$$$3,231.2$$$$
Because someday I will be correct.


"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" It is! I may be a little early on the price of $3,231.20 but someday soon people will be asking "Is buying gold now like buying it at $318 an ounce in late 2002?"

That was an "entertianing" game, though you guys in Colorado must have had a good time with that Air Force vs. CSU game. Not often that the punter makes a TD run like that. For sure quite an "entertaining" weekend for football.

Speaking of "entertaining" games, the stock market was all over the place and yet the price of gold held firm in face of assaults from all sides. It appears that no one is really taking the current stock market rally all that seriously. The Wall Street continues to "game" the individual investor, but it appears that the individual investor has caught on and isn't buying into it.

BTW, the DMR is updated with a bit more info on the PM market action over the last 24 hours.

- Black Blade

Trading gold in the late 1960's was difficult because it had not yet opened up to the general public but, at $35/oz is was a fantastic buy, even considering the greater buying power of the dollar at that time. I think that it is still way undervalued, which is why I, a person of limited financial means, am holding physical PMs. The silver that I hold I purchased for less than that which I held in the mid 1970's, which means that it is now a hugely fantastic buy. My holdings in the mid 1970's went to over 1000% of where I got in..what a deal! Probably more so than the late 60's, the gold that is left to extract from the earth is, of course, more and more limited, and more and more expensive to get out...IT CAN ONLY GO UP...we all know the manipulating that is happening, largely, I think, to secure the election tomorrow for TPTB. They can only hold on for so long and my figure, my guess is based on the assumption that the charade will start to fall apart after the election is secured...if it is a big win for the Repubs, they wont care what the citizens think, if it is a win for the Dems, the markets will be allowed to reflect the horrible shape of our economy in order to make it look like it is a reflection of lack of confidence in Democratic control...so let's see what the next 48 hours looks like...at any rate..the real time of reckoning is NIGH, as opposed to the late 60's..not long wait (is that 30 words)(hard for me to introduce myself in 30 words)
BlackBart

ContestThe Bond Markets do not agree with the Equity Markets. My money is on the Bond Traders. The Bond Traders are focusing on fundamentals, not pie in the sky "feel good" election driven, program traded, manipulated equities and valuations.

The Bond Markets long term outlook that corporations will possess the ability to timely repay debt is a major factor in the pricing of bonds. Bond traders are becoming concerned about losing money and the financial capacity of corporate America to repay the money it has borrowed. Corporate America is suffering a sector wide decrease of sales, revenue and earnings.

One billion Muslims are boycotting American products. Indeed, any country that loses one billion consumers(1/6 of global population) will experience economic contraction and deflation. Add a dash of greed, a pinch of fraudulent accounting, two cups of independence, the introduction of the dinar, dirham and euro and the recipe is economic disaster for a debt driven society and monetary system.

The only way out? Hyper-inflate??????

My bet goes to Gold.

The Barnacle

The following courtesy of Eric Fry:

Curiously, the U.S. dollar did not participate in the exuberant financial Oktoberfest on Wall Street. Maybe the greenback just didn't feel like partying. But if the biggest one-month stock rally in 15 years can't pull in enough foreign buying to support the dollar, what will? The gaping U.S. current account deficit certainly won't help, and neither will the moribund US economy. Net-net, the dollar faces some serious headwinds.

Almost everything about the U.S. economy these days spells S-L-O-W. "The October employment numbers were just plain ugly," says Alan Abelson of Barron's. "The unemployment rate edged up a notch; but we're convinced it's understated and, in any case, destined to climb in the months ahead. Payrolls shrunk again, this time by 5,000; but, more significantly, 29,000 jobs were lost in the private sector. Hours worked overall declined 0.4% and factory hours worked dropped twice as much."

Sherry Cooper of the Bank of Montreal Financial Group observes that the 5.7% unemployment rate may be worse than it appears. That's because the U.S. economy is suffering "a very different kind of joblessness than ever before - it is primarily white collar and highly educated. They are people who have never been unemployed before. They are managers, business consultants, auditors, engineers, technology workers and investment bankers."

Illustrating the point, a recent issue of Business Week profiles Craig and Malene Comes of San Jose, Calif., who "were raking in $120,000 a year and living la dolce vita. The two computer technicians indulged in lavish trips, hired a cleaning lady, and ate out almost every night. Then, both were laid off. Today, they get bags of groceries from a San Jose food bank, have joined the ranks of the uninsured, and beg their parents for $1,045 in rent for their 600-square-foot apartment." Unfortunately, the Comes' travails are not entirely unique. Within the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey, the jobs-plentiful index imploded to 14.8 in October from 35.6 a year ago, while the jobs-hard-to-get index soared to 27.3 from 14.9 a year ago.


Black Blade: A good example of what's happening in the U.S., however, this is also being repeated globally as well. It will get much worse and the market fundamentals are at best "grim". As always get prepared for a deep downturn and don't get fooled by the recent investment bank head fake in the equities markets. Get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food (see the example of the "Comes" above) and basic necessities. Be careful, it's a jungle out there.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThanks Black Blade!

Allowing for inflation, gold is only a little above the price of $35 oz in the late '60's. Those who bought then are now as well contented with the value they purchased as those who buy today will be in 2040. Buy gold for the value, not the price.

$$$ 338.40 $$$ As far as buying gold today being akin to buying @ $35 in the 60's, I would have to say yes. IMO, We are about to embark on the most important gold bullish phase since that time regardless of the final ending price reached. I base my reason solely on technical analysis and long term cycle analysis. This initial runup phase that started in '01 should last until sometime around May of 2004, but the overall bull market trend could extend to as late as 2012, with many sizeable corrections along the way. I sincerely hope the run up is "orderly" as anything close to a blowoff would probably be forecasting serious problems for our world. good luck to all.

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No, In My Very Humble Opinion, we are above the low for this bull market. I think buying in the 270's - 280's was like buying in the 1960's at 35.00 per ounce. Gold is still at an unbelievable low price, even now. I bought 30 oz. last week in a private placement at 326.00. I will continue to buy as the price goes up. Buying now has not hurt the weighted average cost of my stash. Buy gold. You'll never be sorry you did, no matter what the price.

My investment money is divide thusly.

Gold Bullion 49%
Natural Gold Nuggets 26%
Cash 22%
Rare Gold Coins 2%
Silver 1%

Go gold! Thanks for the contest!

Another branch of our family tree.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59279-2002Nov2.html
Snippit:

No, dear investor, Securities and Exchange Commission is not the name of a new sitcom on CNBC. The chairman of the SEC really has decided to investigate himself. Harvey L. Pitt has turned himself in to the SEC's inspector general. You could almost hear Pitt proclaiming, "Take my deposition, please," popping his eyeballs like Henny Youngman. Pitt wants to find out what he knew and when he knew it, in particular about former FBI director William Webster's role as chairman of the audit committee of a penny stock company that is being sued for accounting fraud. At Pitt's initiative, the inspector general is going to investigate his own boss's decision to pick Webster to run a new board that is supposed to oversee the auditors of public companies and stamp out accounting abuses.

It seems that when he made the choice, Pitt neglected to tell anyone that Webster himself had firsthand experience with questionable accounting at U.S. Technologies Inc., an all-but bankrupt Washington company, with a stock that now trades for 1 cent a share -- which is about what I'd bet you that Pitt survives this farce. The Emmy for best comic performance by a congressman goes to Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), who came up with the line that "Pitt has violated the First Law of Holes, which is, when you are in one, stop digging."


Black Blade: It looks like Dubya is losing patience with this sorry loser. Unfortunately he still supports dweebs like Paul O�Neill and Alan Greenspan who are determined to do devastating damage to his presidency. This is going to be "interesting" to see how soon Pitt gets booted or "resigns".

- Off to the gym!!!

$$$326.50$$$
Yes i feel the price of Gold at $35 in 1960 is the same as now because it doesn't matter what the price of Gold's value is its the most precious of all..living in Canada at this time of the year we tend to talk about the weather alot so heres my weather forecast..its going to get*Gold* this winter...very very GOLD..Good Luck To All

Stephen Roach on China...

"Which brings me to the bottom line of my latest sojourn to China: China is now beginning to come to grips with the global context of many of its macro problems. The senior officials we met with in Beijing were quite frank in expressing their concerns about global deflation. They were also convinced that an overvalued US dollar was ripe for a fall. Moreover, official Beijing now concedes that both of these developments have important consequences for China. This is a subtle but important shift. I detected greater concern on both counts than I did in several visits earlier this year. To me, that's real progress. The difference comes in the sticky area of blame. China argues that it is an innocent bystander -- and a source of resilience -- in an otherwise shaky global economy. The rest of the world sees it differently -- that China's emerging economic prowess is now part of the problem".


Comment: It seems to me that suddenly China has suddenly clicked into/arrived at/... a powerhouse position. Even though it's been shifting in that direction for some time.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p32723.aspSnippit:

"...Those who bray loudest about economic recovery typically have something to sell. But remember, they're not gambling with their own money. They're gambling with yours.
By Bill Fleckenstein

The kiddies may have just removed their Halloween masks, but on Wall Street, disguise works year-round. Corporate chieftains are still out there spinning bad news into good news. In tech land, DRAM prices rise because of a manipulation dressed up as increased demand. And under the guise of helping clients, the people who play with other people's money turn trust into losses. Unfortunately, that deception is no illusion.

Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen, there's a lot of stuff to cover this week, beginning with some thoughts on false assumptions about the "recovery." The economic data we've seen over the past two weeks won't win any beauty prizes. Consumer confidence fell to a nine-year low of 79.4, vs. expectations of 90. Durable-goods orders, a notoriously volatile indicator, were a nightmare, down 5.9%, vs. expectations of a 1.6% decline. Nondefense capital-goods orders, ex- aircraft, were down a stunning 6.6%.

Suffice to say, these results are not a sign of economic strength (though as I mentioned, the data are volatile), and that brings me to my concern for people who pay today's prices for securities. Their implicit assumption is that the economy is in the process of getting better. As I have repeatedly stated and tried to cite evidence to back it up, my belief is that the economy is getting weaker. That, coupled with current stock prices, is a recipe for huge trouble all over again...."
----------------------------------------------
GB: A lot of smoke and mirrors still being sold to investors by Fall Street...

We will all 'trade' our 'silence' when paper turns to dust....but that day is not quite upon us.

While at the Embassy of Iran last week I asked why they called home their gold and I was promptly reminded of America'a imperilism......they are aware.

Turkey has new leadership......

Shares in the DOW have increased (in dollars) in the last few days but since it's 'value' has not changed what can one perceive of the dollar looking forward?

One X one is one and so is 0.10 X 10 and sandwiches will soon be $10, see the dollar!

'The meek shall inherit the earth' and you dear friend should see to that.

Sandwiches.......get you some.

....and yes, PAYING for the oil isn't such a novel idea.

silvercollector

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThe url gives a nice write-up of the grand prize that will go to the finest marksman among you. Let those arrows fly!

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

i dont know if it is or not. I wasnt even in my teens . However the federal reserve sure has pinted alot of fiat dollars since then so it seems like it is to me at the moment.

I wonder, if Pitt resigns...will CNBC keep airing one of their commercials that features Pitt saying something like, "I'll never throw in the towel."

We takes our chuckles where we finds �em.

The Hobbits were wondering when you would stop by the Forum, AND I know that you still have most of your BOOTIES !
<;-)

OOPS -- Well after hearing from the Great White North, it seems as there, OZ, and the Brits have ANOTHER HOLIDAY, and seeing that it is ALSO Veterans Day in the USA, AND while the NYSE is going to be open, no one can comfirm to the Hobbits that the COMEX will be open on MONDAY, November 11th. THEREFORE, the WINNING Settlement Price will be that of TUESDAY , November 12th and the deadline for entries will be MONDAY, November 11th at HIGH NOON Denver time !!

IF anyone wishes to change their "prognostication", post me a message before tomorrow at this time.
<;-)
PS: Tks Lady Waverider !

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

Well, of course not! There are some thirty years difference between the late 1960's and now. Buying it now is a completely different year. The past is gone forever, so buy it now, but you will never find it for $35/ ounce.

In 1969, gold was trading in the low $40's after having been capped for 35 years at $35 oz. This was a significant breakout but was recognized by very few analysts. Owning bullion was still not legal for U.S. citizens. The only way to buy gold was to purchase numismatic coins.

After searching the yellow pages, I located a small coin shop in downtown Los Angeles run by a young man (19 years old) who had been a coin collector most of his life. All of my limited assets were invested in sovereigns and U.S. $20 coins. My motivation was to preserve the value of what I had accumulated up to that time. I had a very negative view of the stock market and little confidence in banks. Gold seemed to be the lowest risk alternative. The differences between then and now are great. However, there are important similarities. Then, as now, there was no way to absolutely predict the future. Then, as now, the desire to preserve the "value" of assets was a strong motivator. My analytical process was to explore and consider all the alternatives and then choose the one that seemed to provide the lowest risk. Gold rose to the top of the list in 1969. Although today's environment is different, the process of elimination once again favors gold. Today, the greatest difference is in the wealth of information and opinions available and gold's price history over the past 30 years. Since the internet and this forum have introduced me to like-minded souls, I am aware that favoring gold today is not as contrary as it was 30 years ago. The detailed analysis, interesting discussion and meteoric price projections somewhat inhibit my enthusiasm. But, times have changed. Today's case for gold is different. It is not a weaker case, but it is a different case.

OK, so the date changes. Change my guess to... :-)
Just kidding!

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2002/11/5/nation/klgiran&sec=nationKUALA LANGAT: Iran has offered to use the gold dinar for bilateral business with Malaysia, said Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Mohd Shafie Salleh.�

He said top officials from Iran had expressed their intention to use the dinar in their business transaction with Malaysia under the Bilateral Payment Agreement.�

"These officials told me of their intention during last month's Islamic Development conference in Africa. The meeting was attended by all the Finance Ministers of the Islamic nations," said Mohd Shafie, who represented Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad at the conference. �

The Prime Minister was quoted as saying recently that Malaysia planned to set up a secretariat in the country to promote the idea of using the gold dinar among central banks of other Muslim countries.�

Shafie said he would be submitting his detailed report to the Cabinet on Iran's offer.�

He said various issues would have to be taken into consideration, including the current diplomatic and bilateral relations between Malaysia and Iran. �
____________
Lets get those mints rolling, rolling, rolling... rawhide.

FIRST UPDATE (with revisions also) <;-)
as of 17:45 Denver time 11/04/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High of $319.3 and a low of $317.5 !
(looks as if Sir Steady is "KING of the HILL" at this point !) <;-)


ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg:: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on MONDAY November 11th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===
Don't wait tooooo long as the guessing rush is going to start now, and YOUR price may be taken by a early entry.

<;-)
PS: Thanks Sir Kodie !!
AND WELCOME "NEWBIES" !!!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1A08DF86%2DE3B4%2D4489%2D88D6%2DDDB3686A72A7%7D&siteid=mktwIf the FED cuts rates, money market funds are going to have a hard time offering uninsured returns to customers.

Snip:

"If there is a Fed rate cut, we're considering several options to avoid the possibility of negative yields," he said. "The shareholder would not be asked to come out of pocket to support this plan so there would be no adverse effects on the shareholder."

------------------------------

If the sheeple won't commit money voluntarily, then make the returns so low they go somewhere else.

Gold should get a trickle or two, and a trickle hear and a trickle there adds up in a real small market. . .

Pizz

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Planned job cuts announced by U.S. companies rocketed to 176,010 in October, or more than 7,600 per business day, after falling to a 22-month low in September, an employment consulting firm said Monday.

The October figure is the second-highest of the year, behind only January's 212,704, according to the monthly job-cut survey released by Challenger Gray & Christmas Inc., which tracks daily job-cut announcements.

The October total is 151 percent higher than September's count of 70,057 planned cuts, which was the lowest monthly total since November 2000.

But the latest figure is 27 percent below the 242,192 planned job cuts announced in October 2001 following the Sept. 11 attacks.

Job-cut announcements year-to-date also are down 27 percent from a year ago. Through October, 1,180,627 cuts have been announced, compared with 1,613,880 last year, Challenger Gray said.

While the pace of job cutting has declined from a year ago, when the 9/11 attacks impacted all industries, certain sectors continue to struggle. The technology sector alone accounted for 34 percent of October job cuts, the firm said.
______________
Naz volume today was heavy. End of rally near?

You said " --somewhat inhibit my enthusiasm."
Well I and the Hobbits are sure happy to see another wise old Goldheart ! Loved your story !!! Let us hear from you again soon, WHEN you wish to add a PRICE PROGNOSTICATION to that discussion story !
<;-)

I would suggest that if you find out comex is open NOv 11, that you keep that date as the contest date. If it is closed, then obviously nov 12 should be used.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmWhile the emphasis in the financial markets has been on the sudden pop in the major indexes that came from three major gap days, there are other markets worth watching that spell trouble ahead for the markets.

Please review the charts below of the falling dollar, rising CRB Index, and the rise in interest rates. If this trend persists; while stock prices continue to rally, the markets are ignoring a very important set of warnings. A falling dollar goes along with rising commodity prices.

Rising commodity prices are closely linked with rising interest rates, and rising interest rates are bad news for stocks. An upcoming Storm Update will explore this issue in much more depth, but if the trend continues on its present course, it looks eerily similar to what preceded the 1987 stock market crash.

In 1987 the stock market rose double digits against a backdrop of a falling dollar, plunging bond market, and rising commodity, especially gold prices.
___________
Market looks very rich. Institutions have been buying this rally.
The little guy is still pulling money out of market. Big boys are
trying to sucker in the small players. Not working. Timberrrrrr!

I don't want to detract from the sport of submitting price estimates either near term or long term. I believe this adds interest and fun to this forum.

My enthusiasm for gold is based more on the idea that it is currently the least risky alternative for preserving the value of our excess. The greater its price relative to the dollar, the more protection it will provide. When this will occur is beyond me. Years ago when it was a good idea, I put it in a safe place and gave it minimum thought and never projected a price. Projecting prices, especially with time parameters, is beyond my ability. Thanks for your request though, it makes me feel at home.

For certain, gold was a much better deal in the late '60s at $35 an ounce, had it been legal for Americans to own it then of course. de Gaulle knew it was a steal. So why $$$ 321.2 $$$? $285.41 ($20.67 in 1933 dollars adjusted for inflation today) + 356.96 ($35 in 1944, again adjusted for inflation) / 2 = $321.2

Funny how that works out to just about it's value today, huh? Currency pegged or currency floating, gold spikes and gold valleys - over time it will average out to it's historic intrinsic value. Gold will always preserve wealth, if you want to use it to make a profit (off physical, anyway) sell it when the first case of smallpox is confirmed or the first dirty bomb goes off. Buy it back 6-12 mos later for less. Just my opinion. Good luck all.

No, buying gold now is not like buying gold at $35/oz in the very late 60's. I don't think I had $35 to spare in the late 60's. Fortunately, I've had many $319's or so to spare in 2002! Phew! (A subjective answer regarding my ability and not gold's value).
GratefulForGold

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1A08DF86%2DE3B4%2D4489%2D88D6%2DDDB3686A72A7%7D&siteid=mktwWill he {Greenspan} or will he not...and remember it's the only thing that he can or cannot do...


"Experts don't believe another rate cut would cause money market funds to "break the buck," which is industry jargon for having their net asset values fall under $1 and causing investors to actually lose money on their money fund investments.

But more than 100 funds are now only barely maintaining a positive yield of 1 percentage point or lower, according to fund tracker Lipper. If rates go any lower, they will have to begin eating their own expense fees to prevent the funds from posting negative returns."


Comment: Greenie is caught between a rock and a hard place..my guess is that he will decide that cutting rates yet again is too much of a risk for MMFs..but hey, what will equities think of that..they will tank of course and thereby abort the latest bear market rally prematurely..assuming of course that everything else remains unchanged!

Treas. Sec O'Neal first said he would let the Dollar seek its market level,then after he was informed that a Treas, Sec.remarks should be more vague so as not to cause big swings in Dollar value he recanted and issued a strong Dollar position. I take that as a policy that the Dollar should drop in a steady manor .The latest stock rally is nothing more than Bush giving the DEMS a little of thier own market manipulation just like Klinton and Rubin did for political reasons.The idea is to make the populace "feel-good",at least until after the election.All is well and we are on the way to "recovery"'so don't blame Bush for anything.This will continue until election results are verified,I figure until about the 3rd week in Nov.
Then the Dollar will head south ,the market will head south,Gold will soar and we will resume the process of vomit -up the excesses of Klinton era.It was a sickening sight to see Klinton making a political rally of a memorial service.It just offends the sensibilities of every one born before the sixties.They ran the White house like a FRAT house and think nothing matters except winning.I suspect vomit-up may not be enough to rid the country of this virus but a good dose of castor -oil will also be needed to cleanse the body politic.
I thought it quite interesting that Jessie Ventura was giving the press a piece of his mind ,when all of a sudden someone "pulled the plug" on him and off the air he went due to "technical difficulties".Jessie may not be so suave ,but he is honest and speaks from the heart.Ill take him anyday compared to the bums he ran against.Just my observations....

When gold was $35 an ounce, the U.S. currency was backed by silver certificates and silver coins. Now, the price of gold is relative only to paper, ink, and plated zinc slugs.
Interestingly, 35 Silver dollars are now still worth about one ounce of gold. I think we are now getting a better bargain on gold, then in 1960. Also, I can earn $320 today, easier than I could earn $35 in 1960.

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

In Australia, no, because gold now is about twice as expensive in Aussie dollars as it was then. In the US, yes; in fact it is probably a bit better value now than then. However it is good value in both countries because the world financial system is more precariously poised now than then, the excesses have been greater, and gambling in "sewage" wasn't around then. Finally, the US is now heading into the uncertainties of a war, while then we were heading towards stalemate in the Vietnam conflict. Enough said...

Sundeck

By the late 1960's it had become clear to many of the thoughtful that the US was some way along the old "Road to Ruin the Romans ran", via "panem and circenses" (bread and circuses in Roman times, Government welfare and sports events in our times), and via foreign wars. Inflation was inevitable and the price of gold had to increase. Investment in gold was a way to preserve the value of ones accumulated liquid capital.

Now the US is nearing the terminus of that "Road to Ruin" and buying gold becomes a means for not merely capital preservation, but for personal and family survival. The prospective consequences of buying gold have become considerably higher.

steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 88748)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

i dont know if it is or not. I wasnt even in my teens . However the federal reserve sure has pinted alot of fiat dollars since then so it seems like it is to me at the moment.
_______________________________________

I was nearly 30 in the late 60's. In 1973 I bought a hole-in-the-wall restaurant as a second source of income from a Chinese guy for 15,000. He was buying gold hand over fist at the time. I could have cared less. For me, at that time, the only way to make money was through labor .. hard work, sweat of the brow so to speak. I did make money on the restaurant. I sold it a year later for 25,000 and during the time I owned it, I bought tires for my car and other little things. The Chinese guy got really wealthy on the gold. He ended up building a rather large Chinese restaurant in Washington State with his profits.

Then again, in 1977-78 I was selling real estate and was working with a Chinese customer from San Francisco. He turned a small investment in silver into a 300 unit apartment house in Houston. Again, to me, it was all "playing the stock market" which I was opposed to. Again, I couldn't have cared less.

Finally, in 1998, the kids raised and no debt ... I looked at precious metals. I studied it for a year or so, and decided the only wealth a guy could really have was something in possession. I started buying physical gold and silver and never looked back until last summer when I traded all of my silver across the board for gold.

Gold is not a get rich quick scheme. It's just the best way to have a store of wealth, at any price. Wish I would have recognised it when I was younger. Now, fortunately, gold is going to go to the moon.

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1678629But the drop did not alter Chrysler's view of the U.S. auto industry's price war as economically irresponsible, and executives said they would still try to keep their deals less costly than those from GM and Ford Motor Co. F.N

Last month "the gap between the incentive level of GM and Ford and us became huge," Chrysler President Dieter Zetsche told Reuters in an interview. "Obviously there are some levels of a gap where its getting tough for us to stay successful."

Chrysler's 31 percent decline in October sales versus a year ago gave it a U.S. market share of 11.5 percent, 1.7 percentage points below its figure for the year to date. While GM and Ford also suffered about a 30 percent drop in sales compared with a record-setting month a year ago, their market shares were much healthier, with GM actually running ahead of its share for the year.

For the past year, GM has pursued a strategy of gaining market share through incentives such as interest-free loans, an array of cash rebates and its current "triple-zero" program of no down payment, no interest and no payments for three months. The plans have cost GM billions of dollars, but have also helped the automaker boost its sales and its profits.
------------
Schroer also said while incentives had played a role in boosting industry sales for much of the past year, a larger boost had come from home mortgage refinancing, which allowed thousands of consumers to free up money for new vehicles. He said refinancing began to slow in September, and that automakers would have to adjust accordingly.

"This nuclear level of incentives that did generate volume that could perhaps pay for the discounts -- we feel strongly that game is over," he said.

"We would love to see the level of incentives modified to a level that had some degree of economic sense to the bottom line of the company. Just buying market share to say you've got a share number is not economically rationale and in the interest of our shareholders."
__________________
Could see a lot of unemployment coming soon from auto sector.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iThe dollar index has fallen below 106 again.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DJ16Dj01.htmlLONDON - Consumers in emerging markets have discovered the credit card - with a vengeance. In China, where credit cards were unknown not long ago, plastic transactions have hit a staggering US$200 billion per year.

While this is good news for business, at least in the short term, the boom in credit-card use in emerging markets has resulted in an alarming rise in household debt, and fraud is rife, a report by independent market analyst Datamonitor has found.

Deregulation by emerging-markets governments and simplification of the credit-card application process have resulted in consumers taking advantage of the new lines of credit open to them, borrowing up to their full credit limit. This sudden rush in borrowing has prompted concerns that consumer debt may spiral out of control, especially in China, Thailand and South Korea.

In South Korea, household debt grew 20.3 percent in 2001. In Thailand, the National Economic and Social Development Board has warned that the rapid growth in consumer lending, particularly through the use of credit cards, could jeopardize the country's future economic stability.

In terms of number of transactions, the Chinese market is only fourth-largest, while Brazil and South Korea record much higher card usage. However, examining the value of transactions as opposed to the number of transactions, China is undoubtedly the largest, with more than $200 billion, while Brazil comes third, with $74 billion spent on credit cards.

The report names China, Brazil, Chile, India and Thailand as set to become the hottest markets for card issuance.
_________________
The world has learned our secret to prosperity!
Charge it!
No down payment. No interest. No payment ever!
Just default. Declare bankruptcy. Write it off.

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" Hmm,lets compare wages. In the late sixties minimum wage was $1.60 an hour while Gold was 21 times minimum wage. Now my Dad got a job at Ford's in 67' making $4.25 an hour as an electrician and was happy as a clam. This brings Gold to 8 times his hourly wages.

Now at present minimum wage is 5.15 which makes Gold 62 times the hourly wage. If you want to compare apples to apples (21x) then the present minimum wage should be at $15. And the 8 times Gold price brings a electrician wages to $40 an hour which sounds about right. However, the guy getting minimum wage is getting ripped of at present,relative to gold.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:

Some Are Out of Jobs.

One reason consumers may be pulling back is that job layoffs and corporate firings stepped up again last month. According to a report issued today by the out placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, US companies more than doubled their planned job cuts last month. The monthly tally of planned cuts rose to 176,010, up 151% from the previous month.

What is and What isn't

As far as earnings are concerned, let's just say that what is reported as earnings (which always beat estimates) and the real bottom line numbers are two different stories. One is fiction and the other that goes unreported is non-fiction. It is the non-fiction number that investors should learn more about. It lines up with the rising layoffs. Companies don't fire workers if business conditions are improving.

It's The Big Boys - Not the Little Guys

This rally is looking more and more like a sucker's rally as Jim Sinclair has written in last evening's post. However, the suckers in this case may be the institutions since this rally has been mainly institutional in its genesis. This has been a big boy's rally; mainly fund managers playing with other people's money. Wall Street is still hoping they can draw the little guy back into the markets, but it hasn't happened so far. Fund flows were neutral as of the end of last week. Most of the little guy's money is going into bonds just at the time that the bond market appears that it has topped.


Black Blade: EXACTLY!!!!! Puplava nails it in an excellent report tonight. Well worth reading. Though he is more TA than I am (FA), "the song remains the same" (with apologies to Led Zeppelin). This market looks very ugly from both a TA and FA point of view. If you got time, definitely check out Jim's Market Wrap Up tonight. He covers much of what I do in the DMR as far as the overall economy and equities markets are concerned, but in greater detail. It is quite a bit of fun to read material like this when we are on the same page.

Early in my gold bug days, some time in the early '80s, I purchased 2 Krugerrands. Up till then I had held shares only.

I had them in my possession overnight and can still remember the weight in my hand and my feeling of wealth in those two coins. I had been underground at a few of the SA mines so had an appreciation of the sweat in their production.

The Krugerrands went back to the stockbroker's safe and I sold them at a modest profit a few weeks later. I purchased options on 10 more. I held those a couple of months and sold them again at a modest profit. I'm expecting a 'modest' rise in POG again.

I never forgot those coins and intend to buy 4 more, to hold.

The market is different now, I realise now that gold was in a bear market and my gold investments see-sawed over the years. I missed the Internet bubble and started buying mostly precious metal mutuals to add to my portfolio from 1996.

Your competition reminds me of that time and I feel that gold will again show a modest rise in the coming months. The difference from the early '80s though, is well documented by list members.

Enough of my introduction... and on to Sir Alan's predicament. Here is my prediction of the outcome of the FOMC meeting :

1. Leave rates alone. DOW falls as a rate cut had been built into the price.

2. Quarter Point. Disappointment because the market believes, that a quarter point is ineffectual and it won't be enough to mend the economy.

3. Half Point. Possibly a rise in the DOW but more likely selling on the news. In any case, an aggressive move will be building a deeper hole for the economy for the future.

Noticing that gold shares are rising on weakness in broad market shares...... often later in the trading day as the DOW fails to hold its own. POG is building on its inverse relationship to DOW.

http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/04/news/economy/challenger_jobcuts.reut/index.htm
Challenger survey shows 176,000 planned job losses, the highest total since January.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Planned job cuts announced by U.S. companies rocketed to 176,010 in October, or more than 7,600 per business day, after falling to a 22-month low in September, an employment consulting firm said Monday. The October figure is the second-highest of the year, behind only January's 212,704, according to the monthly job-cut survey released by Challenger Gray & Christmas Inc., which tracks daily job-cut announcements. The October total is 151 percent higher than September's count of 70,057 planned cuts, which was the lowest monthly total since November 2000.

Black Blade: Yep, the "Bone Pile" continues to grow. I do like the typical CNBC infomercial spin: "better than expected". As if that means "all is well". I wonder if Ron Popeil will ever be an anchor on CNBC? You know, the guy who came up with the "pocket fisherman" and "Chia Pets".

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/rates/2002-11-03-fed_x.htm
Factory orders decline, but less than expected.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Orders for U.S. manufacturing goods sank 2.3 percent in September but the decline was milder than expected and was led by huge drops in demand for aircraft and communications equipment, the government said on Monday.

Black Blade: There we go. "Less than expected". I knew that had to come up somewhere. Still, factory orders are falling off which means we are slipping into a deepening recession!

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/rates/2002-11-03-fed_x.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON � After sitting on the sidelines for nearly 11 months, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to cut interest rates Wednesday to try to pump some life into the deteriorating U.S. economy. But the question is: Will it work? Interest rates are at 41-year lows. Consumers have been buying homes and refinancing mortgages like crazy. Creditworthy businesses that want to borrow money can do so at rock-bottom interest rates, Credit card interest rates hit their floor more than a year ago. What's dragging the economy down has nothing to do with interest rates. Instead, there's been a massive loss of confidence by consumers and business owners over the past few months � something the Fed has little control over. "The issues of our economy have much more to do with terrorism, war, CEOs in handcuffs, malfeasance, dock strikes, insurance costs, energy costs, uncertainty about the election, trade protection," says Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin Kubik Stephens and Thompson in Chicago. Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa., says that puts the Fed � and the economy � in a "worrisome" spot. "The Fed's the only game in town, but it doesn't have anything to put on the table," he says.


Black Blade: I agree � it won't make a damn bit of difference because it won't be enough. The Fed will have to cut the entire 1.75% to get anyones attention now. In other words � "GAME OVER".

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Trasp&ARTICLE_ID=160516
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Nov. 4 -- The trans-Alaska pipeline remained shut Monday following an earthquake of 7.9 magnitude that rocked central Alaska Sunday. BP PLC, a producer on Alaska's North Slope, confirmed it had shut in all but 5% of its 1 million b/d of oil production there. No damage to BP facilities or operations was reported, a spokeswoman in New York said, adding, "We're doing this just as a precaution." The quake reportedly triggered a detection system, and the pipeline was automatically shut down at 5:13 p.m. EST Sunday, said a spokesman for the US Department of Transportation's Research and Special Programs Administration in Washington, DC. No pipeline leaks have been reported, and Aleyska Pipeline told federal officials that it was using helicopters with infrared detectors to survey for any possible underground leaks, Delcambre said.


Black Blade: This could slightly reduce a build up of inventories. Meanwhile, heating oil supplies look to be very low as winter heating season gets underway and NatGas supply is starting to decline faster. Another energy crisis could be developing in coming months.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/microsoft/Story/0,2763,830250,00.htmlThe European commission yesterday fired a shot across the bows of Microsoft, warning that the software firm's US court victory last week would have little bearing on its monopoly investigation.

The comments suggested that the legal challenges to Microsoft's dominance of the industry are not yet over, despite the US antitrust case drawing to a close.

Executives at Microsoft breathed a sigh of relief when Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly endorsed the key points of a settlement that found the company guilty of abusing its dominant market position. In doing so she threw out demands from nine US states for tougher penalties.

But Amelia Torres, a spokeswoman for the EC, said the Washington case was not directly comparable to the European investigation. She said: "The competition commissioner, Mario Monti, has been saying for months that our case is quite different from a factual point of view to the case in the US. We also have our own rules to uphold."

The EC is in the final stages of the inquiry but she said it was too early to predict when it would be concluded. Other EU officials have said it will reach a preliminary ruling by the end of the year and a final decision in early 2003.

The EC could impose tougher sanctions on Microsoft and in theory fine it 10% of global sales.

Microsoft also faces private lawsuits from AOL Time Warner and Sun Microsystems as well as the threat of an appeal from the nine US states seeking harsher penalties.
_____________
I don't think the EU likes Mr Softie.

I saw some posted uncertainty about this. In case the issue hasn't been resolved yet, trading will commence as usual on Veteran's Day (barring unforeseen events).

Problem solved.

Does Gandalf want to stick with the new Tuesday deadline? It's not my call to make, I'm just an impartial conduit of info.

R.

http://www.fiendbear.com/

TownCrier (11/04/02; 23:02:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 88782)
Let it be known... COMEX open for trade on Nov 11th Veteran's Day
====

I believe that we should both HONOR and HONOUR our Vets and the "Remembrance Day" HOLIDAY, SOOOO we will stick with the REVISED ending date of SETTLEMENT on Tuesday, November 12th. The entry DEADLINE will be MONDAY, November 11th at HIGH NOON !!
<;-)

The Treasury used the ESF to swap commodity gold with the Bundesbank in order to sell this gold to reprice it as credit creation gold. Credit creation gold trades at 30+- commodity gold between central bankers. This price difference gives the banks the right to be in gold. Since they create the money out of nothing the increased price means nothing to them. The Mexican bailout was financed in this way.-- China is going to let its currency implode (defalue). Gold is an underground currency in China, as it is in many ME countries. Oil wants gold and China is willing to trade gold for oil under one condition. That condition being that it's exports be priced in gold. Because China holds more $ reserves then it holds its own currency reserves it is willing to let its currency devalue. It is no loss to them nor to the people of China. The war in Iraq is going to end up like Vietnam. We will claim early victory and end up in a war that has no end until we move out. Since the banksterd finance both sides, a long war is guaranteed.

Second UPDATE (with former revisions also) <;-)
as of 00:25 Denver time 11/05/02
VOTING day in the USA ! DO IT!

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High of $319.3 and a low of $317.5 !
(looks as if Sir Steady is "KING of the HILL" at this point !) <;-)


ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748


===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

Don't wait tooooo long as the guessing rush is going to start now, and YOUR price may be taken by a early entry.
<;-)

Going for the Gold contestMissed that boat too! I think it is the same. The attitude towards gold now by the general public is that it is a poor investment at $318.0 for they will not let lose of the paper money. In the late 1960's I do not think most people payed any attention to the POG. Thirty five dollars was plenty of money for the average J6P. I do not remember any gold coins in circulation.
Slingshot-------------<>

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****

Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

http://www.nypost.com/business/61342.htmA damaging report by former U.S. Attorney General Richard Thornburgh on the financial mismanagement that led to the collapse of WorldCom says "there were improper and unsupported adjustments that go beyond the more than $7 billion," the failed telecom has acknowledged.

Thornburgh said former WorldCom CEO Bernard Ebbers "dominated" WorldCom throughout the course of his career with the company.

The former U.S. Attorney, who was tapped by the Justice Department to investigate accounting fraud at WorldCom, filed his allegations in a 122-page report in New York bankruptcy court yesterday.

WorldCom filed the largest-ever bankruptcy case in July.

Thornburgh also alleged that Ebbers had "personal influence" over cash bonuses that were awarded to WorldCom's staffers.
____________
Biggest bankruptcy keeps getting bigger.

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=worldnews&StoryID=1679547SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's largest car maker and 165 other workplaces were hit by strikes Tuesday, as unions escalated protests over working conditions ahead of December's presidential election.

About 120,000 workers from the country's most militant union began a strike at 1 p.m. (0400 GMT) to protest against proposals to shorten the working week that they fear will also cut incomes, a union leader said.

"We don't know how long it will last, but we'll fight until the government accepts our demand," Sohn Nark-koo, a spokesman for the Korea Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) told Reuters.

Among companies affected by the KCTU walkout were Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, Ssangyong Motor and unlisted Kumho Tire, and union officials said the action could spread further in coming days.

The walkout broadened a strike begun Monday by 15,000 civil servants protesting against both the proposal to shorten the working week and a government ban on public sector unions.

Some analysts say the stoppages represent the beginnings of a wave of labor unrest before the December 19 election, when South Korea will pick a successor to its retiring president, Kim Dae-jung.
____________
S Korea was one of the few bright spots.

New York, Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Nine days before the first scheduled meeting of the Public Accounting Oversight Board, the group has no budget, no office, no staff -- and maybe no leader.

Four separate investigations are focusing on Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt and his appointment of former FBI Director William Webster as chairman of the group, intended to restore investor confidence after the collapse of Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc.
__________
Our tax dollars hard at work.

Analysts (?) are rushing to find a myriad of explanations about this morning's euro-spike and dollar-flight. Is it for (geo)political or economical reasons ? But since this globe is on an almost political-economy, it is for both reasons, that the dollar must give way. Not just a blip but a trend-continuation ! Gold's adversary ($) versus Gold's friend (�), both circling around the precious oil.

Euroland and Turkey arrived at a very, very delicate and decisive moment !

Some OBL people have been eliminated in Yemen.
Israel will soon be directionaless.
Saddam Hussein proposes to destroy some weaponary (humhum).

Midterm elections + IR-decisions are going to spice are week.

Well i love this new shanghai exchange giving new support to the real gold market!Just think,april 1st(april fools day)the japanese get their wake up call and the flood begins.If gold is at 325 when the dow breaks look out!!!Is it tsunami season?Yup i smell hurricane,financial hurricane a brewin!

$$$$$$ 340.00 $$$$$$$

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20021104/pl_nm/election_lameduck_dc_1
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura dealt another wild card on Monday into what already was shaping up as a potentially chaotic Senate session in the next few weeks as lawmakers struggle to complete this year's business. With control of the divided Senate teetering in the balance, Ventura named fellow independent Dean Barkley to temporarily fill the Senate seat of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, who died last month in a plane crash. Aides to several Minnesota lawmakers described Barkley as a complete independent, who may not align himself with either Republicans or Democrats when Congress convenes in a lame duck session next week to try to complete the $2 trillion federal budget and other unfinished work. With the reliable support of independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont, Democrats would have the majority with 50 votes, while Republicans would control 49, and Barkley would be an unknown.

Black Blade: Actually, I find this very funny. The Dems embarrass their party with a sham memorial for Sen. Wellstone (actually turns out to be a taxpayer funded political rally for Mondale). That enrages Jesse Ventura who with his wife storm out of the "memorial" after Republican politicians are booed while giving their condolences. Jesse gets back by appointing an independent as Senator until the winner takes his place in the Senate. This gives the Republicans control and shelved legislation (such as the "energy bill") and judicial nominees are quickly confirmed during a 2 and half month window of opportunity. The moral of the story � if you are advertising to have a solemn memorial, then have a solemn memorial, especially if the governor is no nonsense Jesse Ventura.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021104/economy_japan_money_2.html
TOKYO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Japan's monetary base grew at a
double-digit pace for the 14th straight month in October but the rise continued to slow, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Tuesday. The monetary base -- money in circulation plus bank deposits at the central bank -- grew by 19.8 percent from a year earlier compared with a rise of 21.4 percent in September.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The Euro is worth more than the U.S. dollar. From cash to trash!!! Meanwhile, Gold is knocking on $320 an ounce and could easily power on past even if the equities markets surge today. Most people know that the recent stock market rally is simply a sham powered by short covering and institutional bankers. The individual is bailing out (note outflows by Trim Tabs) and insider selling at a brisk pace at a rate 2 to 1. The markets are rallying because no one else is in the game anymore so its easy to move the markets. The Lemmings are plowing into real estate even as the bubble is about to implode. After all real estate prices can't keep rising faster than income forever before it comes undone in spectacular fashion. Looks like its going to be an "entertaining" day on Wall Street today and the political game should be fun too as maybe less than half registered voters go to the polls.

- Black Blade

$$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$f What! Am I being punished? One day. Just one day that I don't read the forum and there is a contest. Well, I'll have none of that. My usual guess is $$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$$. Maybe, possibly, I'll be right, just once... probably NOT. But It's worth the try. Good day Ladies and Knights.

Well, I must say, the republican team players were much more disciplined than I thought they would be.
The sell-off at the end of the day yesterday indicates to me that there were some early efforts to get out ahead of the crowd, but I expected greed to get the best of more people than it did. Today will tell the tale.
We are lucky to be alive at this time in history.
The beginning of the fall of the greatest empire ever.
The Dark Lord is preparing a monumental harvest.
Which side are you on?
Where do you place your faith?
Paper assets represent faith in the worldly system,
Gold represents faith in truth and justice.

Given the current situation in the world. The excesses of the last two decades. The unprecedented derivatives exposure of all the top banks in the world. The real question is, are we about to see an unprecedented increase in the price of GOLD?

$$$$$327.5$$$$$
I think the gold bull is just now getting it's legs. The wall of worry is set to fustrate all except the most indifferent. My defense is to take a core possition and wait, and try not to go crazy. The reason gold will migrate higher is lack of confidense in currencies on a world scale. Reason will slowly occur to people that the governments can't preach a clean ballance sheet to business and not set an example themselves.The fashion in investing is changing someday soon one can admit to being bullish on gold with out reprisal.It is getting better, 2 years ago I admitted to my fellow stockbrokers I was bullish on gold and I was looked at as if I was a fool to say such a thing.Great form keep up the good work.
cheers
greg

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.html

You are world-wise and well-connected,
with actions matching your vision beyond the horizon.

This information page was made for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

New Zealand
Monaco
Germany
the Netherlands
Austria
Ireland
Finland
Australia
Great Britain
Canada
and,
of course,
the United States.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price and GET what you pay for!

Recall that Former Fed Governor Waybe Angell is CHM.And Mr. Angell is no friend of Greenspan.

I'm wondering. Bear Stearns WAS right during the last DOW downdraft, claiming their trader "Hit the sell key" by mistake.

Perhaps the good Angell has heard some news from his former buddies still at the Fed [those that oppose a cut]. Angell never did approve of interventions according to careful reading of the FOMC transcripts...thus he was always at odds with the Master of the Universe.

Don't be surprise at no rate cut. Of course such a move will hammer the DOW pretty quickly so the Prubear guys may be in for a launch along with those who are playing the HUI/DOW arbitrage.

As much as all logic points to POG liftoff the DARK FORCES persist in tipping logic off the playing field.

Lawrence Lindsay on the way out? "Strong Dollar" Policy Out Too?Tue Nov 5, 3:57 AM ET

WASHINGTON -- President Bush (news - web sites) is considering a shake-up of his economic team, with Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites) Chairman Harvey Pitt and White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey as the two most likely casualties, people familiar with the deliberations told The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Pitt hurt himself with the White House by not informing administration officials about potential problems in William Webster's work as audit committee chairman with a company accused of accounting improprieties and shareholder fraud. The former FBI (news - web sites) and CIA (news - web sites) director had been recruited by White House Chief of Staff Andy Card to head a panel charged with reforming the accounting industry.

Business groups also have been increasing the pressure on the White House to force Mr. Pitt's resignation. The Pitt imbroglio has slowed the SEC's promulgation of new rules overseeing corporate behavior, and "put a blanket on economic activity," says Bruce Josten, a U.S. Chamber of Commerce (news - web sites) executive.

Mr. Lindsey's problems are different. Capitol Hill has lost confidence in him because he mixes economic and political advice, a purview normally reserved for White House political director Karl Rove. In September, Mr. Lindsey pressed House members to go forward with an investor tax-cut package because it could help them in the midterm elections. But House officials scrapped the idea when moderates refused to vote on any measure that Democrats could claim was a sop to the wealthy.

Mr. Lindsey said he has "no plans to change what I'm doing." Mr. Pitt has regularly said he intends to stay on his job.

Staff changes after midterm elections are common in all administrations, and Mr. Bush's economic team has long been expected to undergo a scrubbing. So far, Mr. Bush has avoided blame for the economic slowdown, but pressure will mount if the economy continues to falter in the time leading up to his 2004 re-election.

Wall Street Journal Staff Reporter Jeanne Cummings and Bob Davis contributed to this report.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

This story is much bigger that it appears. Lawrence Lindsay is a key link to the past and the long-in-the-tooth, "Strong Dollar" Policy.

I don't think that any INCOMING economic advisor team would accept what would be an impossible mandate to continue an unsustainable "Strong Dollar" policy. Recall that the National Association of Manufacturers [NAM] HATES the policy.

Therefore the end of the "Strong Dollar" policy may now be at hand.

This same reasoning applies to the coming replacement of the Fed Chair. What new Fed chairman would accept the job of selling off the last ingots in the Treasury only to face the cameras and "Explain" how it happened. ..all the while envisioning Greenspan sunning himself on a Cancun Beach surrounded by bikinis and daquris.

IF this week's forecast Fed Funds rate cut also fails, them we know that the internal revolt at the Fed has won.

Time to get gold is running out.

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/archiveindex.htmlHere you will find a greatly improved index for access to the current CB Insider (dated Nov. 4th) in addition to the monthly archives.

If you find a noteworthy nugget, don't be shy about sharing it with the forum. As usual, I have tried to highlight some of the more provocative points in red.

R.

I don't think all the positives for gold will have time to work, I belive gold will go up up and away but it will take time. The big boys still have ammo to shoot it down if it gets going before they want it to. So my guess is $$$$319.90$$$$. Good luck to all and live small.
RJ

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

===
Please note the above RULE ! OK, it was the last RULE, BUT PERHAPS it is the most important RULE !!!!! YOU MUST answer THIS QUESTION, and then you may expound on anyother things you wish !! HINT --- Some of you POSTERS, may wish to try again in another post, [ BUT NOT a new prognosticaion. <;-) ]

$$$$322.2$$$$
Gold at $35.00 per ounce in the late sixties is approximately equivalent to gold at $350.00 an ounce today. Today we are dealing in what is roughly paper dimes and still calling them dollars. Therefore, gold at todays prices is a bargain as you all are aware.

Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 88803)
---
I don't remember seeing you here before, and I don't know how I could have missed you, (with that six foot plus wingspan). If you are not new, you must have kept your wings folded up well.
BTW -- you might wish to think about an answer to the RULE #7 Question -- This way I get you to Post again !
<;-)

$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$See what happens when you don't read the rules.... Gandalf will insist that you do it again. Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At todays prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some

Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 88808) Contest
===
WELCOME and WELL DONE !
Lots of new posters coming out now, as I do not remember seeing you before --OR sinility has arrived for the Wiz !!
<;-)

rsjacksr (11/05/02; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 88810)
Contest (Price prognostication)
$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$
See what happens when you don't read the rules.... Gandalf will insist that you do it again. Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At todays prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some.
+++++++
ROFL my pointy hat off !!
PERHAPS Sir Rajacksr you could RE-READ Rule #7 AGAIN !
This way I get you to post for the THIRD time !
<;-)

Sector, Thanks for the Greenspan retirement snapshot, ie., "envisioning Greenspan sunning himself on a Cancun Beach surrounded by bikinis and daquris."

Looks like da boyz have the DOW and gold well in hand for the election. Just finished voting and was thinking about the next election, 2004. If the Republicans win the House and Senate it will surely be their last time at bat for at least 20 years. If the Dems win the Senate and/or the House then look for gridlock (probably a good thing) but still a rout of the Republicans in 2004. As a goldbug I'm inclined to lean Republican as the lesser of two evils but a divided government might be safer. Oh well, I'll just kick back tonight and root for some of the locals.

Remember that Roosevelt tried to pack the Supreme Court when they got in the way of his socialist programs. I expect that our only protection from the corrupt scoundrels in the Executive and Legislative branches will be the Court. Hopefully they will rise to the challenge.

Cheers

Boilermaker

$$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$Once more into the void.
For the third and I hope the final time. I HOPE.
AND OF COURSE THE ANSWER TO THE BURNING #7 QUESTION IS NO. Buying gold now is not like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's. It's better. How's them apples Sir Gandalf?
Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At today's prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some.

Euro-1.0005 against U.S. .9995 What does this portend Aristotle ?
Cyberbat

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/021105/80/ddyab.htmlLONDON (Reuters) -Top cabinet minister Robin Cook has muddied the waters around possible euro entry, saying the single currency would be mentioned in next week's Queen's Speech which outlines legislative plans for the next year.


Cook said the text of the speech the Queen will deliver to parliament was finalised on Tuesday but declined to say whether it would include a specific bill to pave the way for a referendum on joining Europe's single currency.


"Sure, the euro will be there and I think you will be interested in it. But there you are, you will have to wait and see," Cook told a select group of reporters.

http://www.FreeRepublic.com/focus/news/782759/postsISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Hardline Islamic parties said Tuesday they have reached an agreement with a pro-democracy bloc, giving them the parliamentary majority needed to form a coalition government and choose the next prime minister.

The agreement is a blow to President Gen. Pervez Musharraf because his supporters were left out of the coalition, but a spokesman for the pro-Musharraf party refused to concede defeat, saying his group was still working to form a majority and was confident it would succeed.

The religious and pro-democracy parties said they would announce their choice for prime minister later Tuesday, but officials in both camps say the top spot would likely go to Fazl-ur Rahman, the head of Jamiat-e-ulema Islam, or Party of Islamic clerics.

The pro-Musharraf Quaid-e-Azam faction of the Pakistan Muslim League won the most seats in the Oct. 10 elections, but fell short of a majority, and the parties have been jockeying to form a coalition ever since.

The grouping of religious parties, called the United Action Forum, or Muthida Majlis-e-Amal, came in third on the strength of an anti-American, pro-Taliban platform.
____________
Islamists did well in Turkey and now in Pakistan. Will US troops
be asked to leave Pakistan soon? What about Pak nukes?

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1682245The Institute for Supply Management said its monthly index of non-manufacturing activity fell in October to 53.1 from 53.9 in September, above forecasts for a decline to 51.7 and above the key 50 mark which shows the sector is still expanding.

"The report was consistent with very sluggish growth, but we haven't reached the point where it's consistent with negative growth," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast Ltd.

Two components that are key barometers of future growth raised warning flags. New orders slowed in October to 50.9 in October from 52.3 -- the lowest point since January. And employment continued to contract.

"New orders are increasing slower and slower, and if the trend continues, it's not good," Ralph Kauffman, head of the survey group for the ISM, told reporters in a conference call.
______________
When auto sales tank, then we drift into recession.

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No. The urgency to own gold now is greater than it was in the 1960's, regardless whether it costs more or less in dollars. Unfolding severe economic and social problems demand that one protect his assets now in the best possible way - gold.

LOVE "them apples" !
Thanks
<;-)

Good Articlehttp://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={4F1ED624-C85B-4E59-B509-4277238D61E7}&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

Gold's gains linked to dropping dollar
Bullion bounces as elections, interest rates take toll

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:02 PM ET Nov. 5, 2002


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- What's wrong with this picture? Gold -- along with the shares of the
companies that mine it -- is rising even as the overall stock market stages an autumn rally.

More often than not, gold-related investments fall when the broader market
shines because they represent low confidence in the financial system. This time, a sliding dollar is assisting gold
in its gains, against the improbable backdrop of rallying U.S. stocks.

In the past five days, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU: news, chart, profile) has gained 6 percent vs. a 3
percent gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX: news, chart, profile), which represents the overall market.

Gold's underlying spot price (38099902: news, chart, profile), meanwhile, has risen 2 percent in the past 10 days,
flirting with $320 an ounce. On Tuesday, the euro, resuming a 10-month comeback, was quoted at more than $1,
the European currency's first time at that level since late July. See full story.

Gold is nearly always the antithesis of the stock market. In the almost six-month rough patch for stocks that
began in mid-May and ran through early October, gold's value held steady as the stock market declined 26
percent. See chart.

Gold's role as the market's polar opposite doesn't always play out. Andy Smith, precious metals analyst at
Mitsui Global in London, tells me that in the 300 working days that followed Sept 10, 2001, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average (INDU: news, chart, profile) has risen 137 days. On those days, the Philly Gold Index rose 59
days and the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) of mining shares gained 57 days. Gold itself, as
measured by the afternoon London fixing price, gained on 55 of those days.

"So about 40 percent of Wall Street up days since Sept 10, 2001, saw a rise in gold shares or bullion," says
Smith, one of the most respected precious metal analysts.

James Turk, founder of electronic payments system Goldmoney.com and a longtime gold analyst and newsletter
editor, sees the seeds of a lasting gold rally in the works.

"More important is gold's relationship to the dollar," Turk said Tuesday. "Normally a
lower dollar means higher gold prices, which explains what is happening now. It also
explains why the potential for gold looks so bullish here. The dollar is exceptionally
weak."



(Read the full article it's all good for gold!).......J.R.

http://asia.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/11/05/korea.strike/SEOUL, South Korea --Workplaces across South Korea have ground to a halt as about 120,000 workers went on strike over government plans to shorten the work week.

Around 165 workplaces were hit by the strikes, which began at 1pm (0400 GMT), protesting government plans to implement a 5-day work week that workers fear will result in reduced incomes and public holidays.

"We don't know how long it will last, but we'll fight until the government accepts our demand," Reuters news agency reported Sohn Nark-koo, a spokesman for the Korea Confederation of Trade Union (KCTU), to have said.

The strike call by the 640,000-strong KCTU has hit some of the country's biggest companies -- with workers from auto giants Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors and Ssangyong Motor taking part.

Production at Hyundai began winding down on Friday, with lost production of more than 10,000 vehicles costing the car manufacturer around 150 billion won ($123 million) by close of business on Tuesday.

South Korea's labor minister has called the strike "illegal" -- Seoul does not allow public servants to form unions. Police have arrested 600 civil servants and is holding them for interrogation for breaching laws banning public sector work stoppages, Reuters reported.
____________
S Korea still has a 6 day work week. Workers want a 40 hour
5 day week. S Korea market up 4% regardless. Somebody is in
denial.

Berlin (dpa) - The Berlin city government on Tuesday admitted de facto bankruptcy and announced it was taking legal action to force Germany's federal government to pay for a bail-out.

Ruled by a leftist alliance of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) and the former East German communists (PDS), the city is staggering with 46 billion euros (46 billion dollars) public debt, Finance Senator Thilo Sarrazin said.

Sarrazin said this meant the city was paying 2.2 billion euros a year just to cover interest and he warned that the city's total debt would climb to 58 billion euros by 2006.

Berlin has a population of 3.5 million but the city has lost much of its industrial base and unemployment is currently 17 per cent.

Given the federal government's refusal to pay off Berlin's debts, Sarrazin said the city was taking legal action in Germany's Federal Constitutional Court to aimed at proving Berlin was incapable of shouldering the burden alone.

Germany's Basic Law, the federal constitution, stipulates there should be ``equalization'' between financially strong and weak federal states, the Laender. Berlin, a city-state, is one of Germany's 16 Laender.

Under this constitutional arrangement annual payments are made from wealthy states, such as Bavaria and Hesse, to poorer regions such as the Saarland, Berlin and Bremen.

The lawsuit will be based on a clause in Article 107 of the Basic Law which provides for one-off emergency grants to states.
_________________
Sounds like a depression to me. Wonder if the mainstream media
will give this much coverage?

Hello All!
Glad to be a part of this!
Does anyone know why on certain days gold prices go up significantly(2%), but gold mutual funds (which invest in mining companies go down?
They almost always move together.
Thanks!!!

As it's a leftist alliance encountering serious financial difficulties, I wouldn't bet on any mainstream US news outlets covering it - at least until after the election anyway.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2002-11-04-money-funds_x.htm
11/04/2002 - Updated 11:44 PM ET

By John Waggoner, USA TODAY

While another Federal Reserve interest rate cut could boost the economy, it also could push some money market mutual funds into oblivion, as fees overwhelm returns and investors scurry to find higher yields elsewhere.

The Fed is widely expected to push its target for the federal funds rate � a key short-term interest rate � Wednesday to 1.5% from 1.75%. Money fund yields closely track the fed funds rate, minus the cost of running the fund. The fed funds rate is at a 40-year low after 11 consecutive cuts, and the average money fund is yielding just 1.21%, iMoneyNet says.

Another rate cut could force funds with high expenses and low returns out of business. IMoneyNet says 34 have yields of 0.25% or less. They might have to slash expenses to avoid having their share prices fall below $1 � "breaking the buck," in industry terms.

If a fund breaks a buck, investors could lose money and the fund could be shut down by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

A half-point rate cut to 1.25%, though not expected Wednesday, could make 75 money funds unprofitable, says Peter Crane, editor of iMoneyNet's Money Fund Report: "They can have a quick death by the SEC or a slow death by investors pulling money out."

Another fear: that funds, which typically invest in short-term, high-quality corporate and government debt, will buy riskier securities to get higher yields. That can be perilous, as in 1994, when a small money fund last broke a buck because it held derivatives.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Welcome to the world of disappearing money market fund assets. Thought you had "money" in there? Well�maybe not. When the "Buck gets broken" �you get broke.

Derivatives infect everything in finance these days including money market funds, so as the Fed Funds rate falls get ready for an explosion in money fund failures.

Not unlike the Berlin explosion of a $46 Billion bankruptcy debt now handed to the widows and orphans in the "wealthy" regions of Germany.

Does anyone there really expect savers to pay the bills of leftist loafers? It will be inflation folks. Print, print, print.

In the 60's the families of my clan were content with the daily gathering and selling of the bat guano plentiful in our cavern home. This great and seeming boundless (and renewable) resourse was seen to all as the store of wealth for my people. Little was know or understood of the wealth preserving power of gold.

Over these years my clan has grown to a great number--we have outgrown our bat population. Every family has acquired cell phones and computers for every person--Electronics which use gold. And many have decorated themselves with gold jewelry. From our years of dependency upon the bat's, my people understand supply and demand.

Today, my clan seeks gold as a more reliable store of wealth and we observe that the guano/gold ratio has remained constant over these many years--as good for us today as it was in the 60s.

We will talk of this again. I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

Waste not, want not. And when TSHTF, I hope you and your people will get a clean break. Soon, no more whistling in the dark for any of us.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&freq=2∁idx=aaaaa%3A0∁=&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&type=2&time=20&style=320☆tdate=&enddate=&size=2&lf2=0&lf3=0Let me know if the url works properly.

Why do I like this chart? Let's just say it's a reminder off all those times my friends laughed at me when I told them to take their money and run and I know they didn't listen.

Oh by the way,.. take your money and convert it to physical really soon, we're obviously not in "market recovery" mode.


Cheers!

RobotGuy.

It is pleasing that the noble Mikal understands the plight of the Hill People. Your words of encouragement bring joy to the hearts of my kindred.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

sector, you asked in msg#: 88804
This same reasoning applies to the coming replacement of the Fed Chair. What new Fed chairman would accept the job of selling off the last ingots in the Treasury only to face the cameras and "Explain" how it happened. all the while envisioning Greenspan sunning himself on a Cancun Beach surrounded by bikinis and daquris.

What about Robert Rubin? Bah, he's a democrat.
Mid term elections would lead to policy change of federal gov. vis-�-vis gold? Why should Bush & Co. have waited two years to implement it?
Forget it. It will be business as usual (until thee revolution, that is.)

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlVery Important Post...for your ease and comfort...and definitely not to be missed!

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=34118037&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

In Japan, demand for gold has been boosted by the government's decision to end its guarantee of bank deposits. Japanese private investors now hold an average of US$5,000 in gold, twice as much as before. The trend seems to be replicated, albeit on a smaller scale, locally as more Malaysians buy gold as an investment, says Joan Lye, manager of the World Gold Council Malaysia. More specifically, the sale of Malaysia's first and only gold bullion coin, Kijang Emas, has gone up. The 24C pure gold coin, introduced last year, is sold at two local banks, Maybank and Bumiputra-Commerce Bank, in three denominations - 1oz, 1oz and 1oz. Minted in 999.9 to a thousand parts of pure gold, the Kijang Emas is priced at the daily gold market rate. Coins can be resold at the two banks' branches nationwide. "Asians have always had an affinity for gold. But today, apart from buying gold as jewellery, more Asians and Malaysians are buying gold as an investment.


Black Blade: Indeed, that is the word I get from some of my industry contacts. Physical gold (and platinum to some extent) are gaining interest in Asia. In fact physical purchases have been steadily increasing. It has been frustrating to read the gold bears lying about waning interest in precious metals in Asia, especially when I know for a fact that this is not the case. However, these clowns are looked upon as "professionals" who are somehow referred to as "respected" analysts. The Asian is more aware of the wealth preservation of gold than most people. After the Asia Contagion of the late 1990's those who held gold came through unscathed and some even emerged with great wealth as they bought out property owners for example. In my work in SE Asia, I was able to see for myself how the common people deep in isolated jungle villages held gold that they mined and yet they would laugh or even cringe when presented with their country's currency (some didn't even know what their currency looked like). In the final analysis, gold is money, the ultimate money according to over a billion of the planets people � especially so in Asia and even the most jaded "analyst" can't change that simple fact.

Dear Chuck,

Great question. I believe the fundamental reason why the price of gold and gold mutual funds at times go in opposite directions is because they are not the same thing. Gold is a comodity and gold mutual funds are stocks. Just because the value of gold goes up doesn't mean the value of the companies goes up. This is because the value of a company depends upon more than the value of what it produces. There are other factors at play for a company. Hope that makes some sense.

On the other hand, when the economy is slowing, it shouldn't surprise us to see these types of mutual funds skyrocket as they did these past two years or so even though gold held in the 300's. In fact the Vanguard precious metals mutual fund had to be closed to new investors so many wanted to dump their money into it. That is fine, but I think a lot of the increase in their "value" was due to hype.

The main thing I keep in mind is that investing in this type of mutual fund is an investment in stocks, not gold. They are different animals.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Nov-2002/shanghai051102.htm
Snippit:

It is a major step forward in the liberalisation of markets in that huge country as all gold trading has been under the control of the People's Bank of China for the past fifty years. The World Gold Council, apparently, acts as the sole foreign adviser to the Shanghai Gold Exchange which is the second exchange in the world to settle only in physical gold, the other being Turkey which started in 1995. Quite what advice the WGC had to offer is not forthcoming, but Albert Cheng, the regional director in Asia for the WGC, claims that the organisation has been active over many years in fostering a free market in gold trading in conjunction with the Chinese authorities. This is about as realistic as the statement attributed to the former chief executive Ms Fukuda that the World Gold Council played a pivotal role in persuading the central banks to accept the Washington Accord back in 1998.


Black Blade: It appears that the WGC has put aside the "Glow With Gold" jewelry marketing program in favor of marketing Gold as an investment vehicle. With Gold Fields CEO Chris Thompson running the WGC with help from a few select individuals, this could be an interesting development. With the global economy in the crapper, it should be interesting to see how the WGC plays its hand.

- Off to the gym!

Hi all, nice reading all the posts. You guys and gals are awesome! I hate missing some of the postings but I try and visit the castle as often as possible. I think buying gold now IS probably like that in the late 60's because although times change people generally don't change. The majority of investors back then were probably into the fad stocks of that time as they are today thus treating gold like an unwanted stepchild. Although I wasn't old enough to really grasp those times in the late 60's concerning the precious metals I can only assume and we all know what happens when one assumes.

Cheers,

Rock

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873022434Thousands of US private investors who put money into hedge funds through life insurance policies could face demands for billions of dollars of back taxes following a ruling by the US Internal Revenue Service.

The investors were offered hedge funds as an investment choice by insurance companies which said the returns would be tax free.

But the US tax authorities have decided that "wrapping" the hedge funds into an insurance product did not give them tax-free status.

The IRS ruling, issued in response to an insurance company request, is another blow to the hedge fund industry which is already facing an investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
_____________
CNBC had a breaking story on a letter indicating investingation
of hedge funds by SEC might lead to regulation. Lets see what
the hedge funds have been up to.

Rule Seven Paragraph: Purchasing gold now is IMHO
different than in the Sixties. 15 years after the end of WW II with rising inflation and Vietnam coming into the picture, America still had a strong manufacturing economy. Now it has a service economy with huge balance of payments problem because of the huge importation of foreign goods. Now the purchase of gold is first an insurance policy and second and investment vehicle. With hindsight and Forty years of fiat currency and a weak economy, it is now imperative to purchase gold (silver).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2403775.stmBrazil's president-elect has asked the outgoing government to cancel the sale on Tuesday of a stake in the state-owned Banco do Brasil, Latin America's largest bank.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the decision on the privatisation should be left to his government, which takes office on 1 January.
___________
He's wearing that red star pin in his lapel. What else will he
roll back?

Buying gold at ~$325 today IS LIKE buying gold in the 60s for $35 because:

* Price has been artificially manipulated for a number of years (London Gold Pool in the 60s, Bullion bank leasing & producer hedging today)

* Globe is experiencing a wave of political instability (vietnam and nuclear standoff in 60s, terrorism and war on iraq today)

* Runaway monetary inflation (vietnam war spending in 60s, financial crises in 90s and 00s requiring massive infusions today)

However there are major differences as well:

* US was the largest creditor nation in the 60s; now it is the largest debtor nation

* Corporate debt in the 60s was very high by contemporary standards; Corporate debt today is MUCH higher

* Consumer debt in the 60s was virtually non-existent; consumer debt today is at all-time highs

* In the 60s, the US was the dominant economic growth story, with germany and japan as the upstarts. Today, US is the dominant financial growth story, while real economic growth has shifted almost entirely to China.

* In the 60s, the US still supplied most of its own oil needs. Today the US is overwhelmingly dependent on foreign sources of oil. Meanwhile the importance of oil in the economy has not been reduced (despite all our fabulous technology)

* Today, a fiat dollar run amok is the world's reserve currency; in the 60s, gold (or a gold-backed dollar) constituted world financial reserves.

The forces acting on the price of gold in this decade will be like the forces acting on the price of gold in the 70s as a watch spring is to a rocket engine.

got the analogy backwards. The ROCKET forces will be applied to the price of gold TODAY, dwarfing the price move in the 70s.

As if you probably couldn't guess.

$$$$$$$$$$ 316.40 $$$$$$$$$$$$$
Gold buying now as compared to buying GOLD at $35.00 an ounce in the 1960s ???????????????
Gold buying in the 1960s was a sideline game/speculation/coin collector pastime activity!
Gold buying TODAY is REQUIRD PRESERVATION OF ECONOMIC STATUS/WEALTH! With a multiply of 100 potential expansion, today's price equates to FIRESALE prices !!!!!!!

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/press02/opa4720-02.htmWashington D.C. � The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced today that Commissioner Thomas J. Erickson has submitted a letter of resignation, dated October 28, 2002, to President George W. Bush, effective December 1, 2002.

Commissioner Erickson was sworn in as a Commissioner of the CFTC in June 1999. He was nominated by President William J. Clinton and confirmed by the Senate to a term expiring in April 2003.

"The CFTC has a unique and important role in the oversight of financial markets," said Commissioner Erickson. "My time at the Commission, as a member of the staff and as a Commissioner, has been extremely rewarding.

It's been my privilege to work alongside some of the most dedicated and talented public servants in the federal government.
I am grateful for the experience."
________________
He wants to leave an extremely rewarding job.
Hope he got a gold watch.

Hasn't moved a bit in 24 hrs. Is the patient still alive at LBMA & COMEX?

The additional benefit of lower rates is (of course) the flow of $$$ into US equity markets.

See you in N.O. and, how's that #5 wood?

...will be in your own election to shift your predominantly paper-denominated sense of wealthiness toward more tangible wealthiness.

Contracts and numbers are a dime a dozen, and a baker's dozen is half-price in a fire sale. Pick a number, any number... the ace of spades is just a card among 52 when the game goes bust and the chips scatter. If you manage to slip out the back with your skin intact, what you walk away with is what you wisely left at home.

What? You still can't figure out what gives Gold the upper hand every time? Here, be a millionaire:

$1,000,000

My gift to you. Those numbers are all yours.

Get the picture? How wealthy are you... REALLY? How secure? Easy come, easy go? That's no plan for life.

When you must look to others for your food and energy needs, how confident are you that your small numbers will have any trade appeal? No one wants the Turkish lira.

The election is yours. Cast your vote. The Real Deal.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Greetings Ladies and Gentlemen of this distinguished table:

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

First, if you look at the chart that RobotGuy posted (#88830), it clearly indicates that the 60's were nothing like today's stock market and gold market. $320 gold today will soon look much cheaper than $35.00 in the 60's especially if FOA is proves correct. Chears to all!
FROSTY

nostalgia I enjoyed the nostalgia (88770) which I have filed as first hand recent metals history. Recent is a relevant term here. Thanks for the telling.

You stated, "I started buying physical gold and silver and never looked back until last summer when I traded all of my silver across the board for gold."

May I ask why? My own opinion is that all commodity prices will rise over the next few years, some very much so. I view gold as an excellent choice but I'm curious as to why you traded all your silver for gold?

The 2002 Silver Survey published last April, gave a guesstimate of 120 million ounces as their year 2002 projected deficit. This, they admitted, was based on an optimistic outlook for this years economy and thus an optimistic outlook for silver demand. This deficit guess has been revised to 50 million ounces- a deficit still but much less than 120 million. So, we wait and watch some more. At least this explains how the market has been supplying demand. If we reach the point of no more visible above ground supply, with a continuing deficit AND still no price rationing, then we'll have to give more credence to the black (hidden) silver source.

What convinced you to give up on silver?
Thanks
Rich

GoldGate and the WindFall Profits of the Bond speculatorsThese are the two sides of the same bi-partisan financial crime. Rig gold and you have rigged interest rates and by definition the bond market enjoys a lucrative falling interest rate regime.

Anatal Fekete rightly points to the central lie of the Fed's "Cutting rates to help an ailing economy".

The bonds that productive industry sold to finance their capital equipment cannot be refinanced as mortgages. Their present value therefore rises with falling rates. The corps must pay back more principal than they originally borrowed. Balance sheets are decimated. Swissair went broke because of this...many others will follow.
+++++++++++++
The #5 wood sings. About 175 into the wind.

Yes, buying gold now is exactly the same as buying it at whatever price it brought in the 1960's. As it is the same as buying/accumulating it in 1860, 1760, 1660, 1560, 1460... You get the idea! Owning gold always makes sense. Over the course of history and time it's value always exceeds it's price.

You are probably correct in your assessment that silver will be a great investment. I have other factors to consider. PM's are a store of value for me, and I bought "a lot" over the last three years. Receiving silver in the mail was fun. I had accumulated 22,500 oz. and my grandson liked to "count it". After his visits, as I was putting it back in it's storage place, what began to trouble me was how was my 90 pound Sr. Citizen wife going to package this stuff if I was gone and she had to ship it out? A 1000 oz. bar weighs 68.5 pounds, more or less, and 10 hundred oz. bars weighs 68.5 pounds. So I had about 1,600 pounds of silver. At her age, she cannot lift 68.5 pounds. So, for value, I traded the silver for gold, which by the way is up about 30 percent from my average, and either one of us can carry the value in one or two trips. Silver is now below my average purchase price.

Additionally, I did not want to have to put overload springs on my vehicle to move the silver, if it ever came to that. Silly, I know, but each of us has our own reasons. (cough, cough). If you ever wanted to see a comedy of Mo and Curley, you should have seen us package and move a 5,000 oz. shipment from it's storage place to a shipping place, where it was refused until we double boxed it.

That's the reason. Physical possession is fine, if you can handle it physically. I couldn't.

The ease of buying gold at $35 an oz. in the 60' wins hands down . Sure there has been inflation in alomost everything we come in contact with but the powers behind the screen still have the deck and they don't intend to give it up.$320 gold is a lot harder to come by than $35 gold was then .

Gone!

On bonds and interest rates.

Personally, I think they would have had a real hard time floating this 40+ billion this week without leaking the interest rate drop.

As soon as the "rumor" hit the streets, the bond market took off. My gut tells me that the dip down we saw late last week was the dealers shorting bonds into strength, so when they take delivery on their bids, they just cover their short position and basically get out even.

Just opinion, but to me, having to borrow 70+ billion this quarter should be big news, and it's on the back burner so to speak. With the dollar dropping, you can sure bet foreigners aren't in the market heavy except maybe for selling.

Tomorrow will be interesting, but the SM's are way overbought short term, and this last pop over the last couple days has been on weak technicals. Bonds have already dicounted a quarter, so who's going to buy - just the funds, with the sheeples money.

Implosion of the debt markets is closer than even we may think. Bush needs the war for both excuses if things go bad, and for a flight to quality for the dollar, and not even Sadaam is cooperating, he's just rolling over enough to postpone the war until we can't raise enough borrowed cash to operate. Russia would even probably like to see a bit of payback for the 80's and their pain in the 90's. . .

The moves I'm seeing are nothing more than sheer desperation.

Pm's are slowly being accumulated by the smart. Nice to see the buying on the dips. . .

Pizz

...the yen at 122 and showing steady strengthThis model is showing the Japanese to be selling US Treasuries slowly to raise cash and buy yen.

It's why the TOCOM has been weak of late. This is a temporary condition before the dollar moves below 103. Then the fire works will start in earnest.

Q1 2003 seems to be the end of the "Strong Dollar".

Just curious why the most profound and prolific posters here haven't registered their target price and explanation for the contest yet?

On a different note, looks like the Republicans may do very well tonight - wondering how that might effect the SM, the economy, and the PM prices. Repubs are typically seen as more business friendly, but I beleive business also enjoys Congressional gridlock in that it inhibits new legislation.

Early thoughts?

Let me preface what I'm about to say with the following: I am not a conspiracy buff, but people and organizations do tend to do desperate things, expecially if they're easier and less painful than the truth.

There are a few major facts that we all agree on (I think). Fiat is in big trouble, we have the largest debt bubble in history, and the US is in debt past the point of no return, and the system precludes reinflating without crashing first.

IMO, right now, the terrorists, axis of evil, along with any other country that would like to see the US knocked down a few pegs (probably the bulk of the rest of the world) kind of have us over a barrel. The system is broken past repair.

The last thing Bush needs is 6 months of weapons inspections, cause by that time the cat is going to be out of the bag. I think GATA is right, there is enough evidence for a goldgate of sorts, and the last thing the central banks need is congressional investigations into how we got where we are. The big boys will go down in flames.

So as all our 'enemies' soften their stances, and they're making sure not to give us any reason to go into Iraq, what is this administration going to do? The war on terror is losing it's credibility, and it's getting less credible all the time.

It all boils down to money, and we're out of it. We're down to playing tricks and spinning the facts to float the bonds. Without a war, the government can't even put in capital controls without coming clean about the financial system. In past crisis we issued war bonds, so what will they call them without a war? Last Gasp Bonds because no one else with finance our life syle, and we need the money for our war machine?

Looks like we need another scape goat, cause the excuses are getting lamer all the time.

Within private business corporations it gets REAL messy as the owners go down for the count. Public ones too, like Enron and WCOM to name a couple. What do countries do?

Time isn't a luxury too much longer.

Thoughts????

Pizz

http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,2763,834287,00.htmlAn Islamist cleric with Taliban sympathies was last night poised to become Pakistan's next prime minister after the country's religious groups agreed to form a coalition government with an alliance dominated by Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's party.

In a move that will deeply alarm Washington, Maulana Fazlur Rehman - once described as an over-fed cleric in plush turban and sunglasses - emerged as the coalition's candidate for prime minister.

Mr Rehman, 49, heads the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal alliance of six religious groups that did unexpectedly well in last month's general election in which no party emerged with an overall majority.

He was locked up last year after denouncing America's war in Afghanistan and wants all US bases in Pakistan to be closed down.

A faction of the Pakistan Muslim League, the PML (Q), which supports the country's military president general Pervez Musharraf won the biggest number of seats in the new assembly and had been expected to form the next government.

A spokesman for the party insisted yesterday that it would still form the next administration. But the claim increasingly lacks credibility.

Last night, western observers were coming to terms with the fact that a man who once called on his followers to wage a "holy war", against President Bush could soon become prime minister of the world's newest nuclear power.

"We are watching carefully," one western diplomat said.
_______________
More support for Kashmir rebels coming from Rehman.

kludge (11/05/02; 20:13:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 88857)
Contest
Just curious why the most profound and prolific posters here haven't registered their target price and explanation for the contest yet?
---
Early thoughts?
===
YES INDEED, Sir Krudge, you have in part answered your own Question -- IT IS EARLY in the game and many have a STRATEGY !! This is one reason to give OWNERSHIP RIGHTS to the Prognostication to the First to claim the number. The EARLY bird gets the worm ! HOWEVER, let me use some similes here to demonstrate. I shall use the Goldheart Black Blade as an example --- As a great hunter, Black Blade most likely sets up in a "downwind highground" location as the ten-point elk have sensitive smelling abilities -- get the point ? Therefore, one does not expect Black Blade to place his price guess before he knows "which way the wind is blowing" !! My estimate is that Black Blade shall post his guess on late Monday morning Mountain Time. It has also has been seen that Geologists (I have seen MANY do this, but perhaps not Dr. Warner) always have a magnifying glass or loop and whenever someone hands them a rock and asks "What is this ?" --- the Geologist takes his rock hammer and chips off a fresh or clean face, slowly takes out the magnifying glass, and looks through the glass, while uttering a --- Hmmmmm... WHY do Geologists do this ? --- IMHO --- THINKING TIME !!! All the show and extra effort is to provide time to determine the next action, or they are thinking to themself -- "WHAT IS THIS THING ? "
--
SOOO, when is best to GUESS and and how do you determine the CORRECT VALUE ? --- Don't ask ME ? ROFL <;-)

COMEX gc2z Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price CONTEST !!FOURTH UPDATE (with all revisions) <;-)
as of 21:10 Denver time 11/05/02
THANKS for VOTING, USA !!

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3

(looks as if Sir VanRip is "KING of the HILL" at this point !) <;-)

=======
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

Thanks EARLY Guessers ! Some prices are getting close to be "BRACKETED" !! Don't wait tooo long or your number will be taken by someone else !
<;-)

Oh my, why do I wait? That's a good question. First, I have been here for quite a long time and will give all the new posters who wish to participate an early shot. Notice how quickly the slots fill up? Besides many lurkers tend to make themselves known and join the regular faces at the round table to give their perspective. Secondly, there are so many events that take place that can so easily affect the markets and the price of gold. Tonight we await election and initiative results that can change the face of the political landscape. Tomorrow we shall see how much the Fed will cut interest rates, then again what if they don't? Thirdly, what world event, geopolitical crisis, or terrorist act will create angst in the markets? However, when the contests are of a more cerebral nature requiring deep thought and analyses then I might take a lot of time to organize my thoughts and sometimes to review information and long forgotten data to put together a more detailed post.

Oh yes, sometimes I do take out my hand lens to look at minerals in a rock (or micro-fossils) and rack my brain trying to remember long forgotten details to make an identification (among other things). Sometimes it is intuitive and yes, sometimes I do say Hmmm� Fortunately if that fails there are other methods that can be used.

So far no elk, but I do have deer and antelope bagged and tagged. This last weekend I did slay some ducks. So the freezer is slowly filling up. Cheers!

- Black Blade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF850EB64%2DFE52%2D4BDB%2D8A7E%2DC86BA8B7453E%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Embattled SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt resigned late Tuesday, White House officials said. Pitt submitted his resignation letter to President Bush Tuesday afternoon, even as election returns dominated news coverage.

Black Blade: Yeah, like we didn't see this one coming. The old boy dug himself in a hole and just kept on digging. At some point the Prez is going to lose patience.

BTW, I like goldquest's analysis. "Gone"

November 5, 2002

The Honorable George W. Bush

The White House

Washington, D.C.

My dear Mr. President:

It is with deep regret that I have decided to tender my resignation to you as Chairman, and a member, of the Securities and Exchange Commission, effective as soon as I can help your Staff ensure a smooth transition of leadership.

Over the past fifteen months, I have had the pleasure of serving as part of your Administration. The issues confronting our capital markets are enormous, and I am pleased I was able to play a role in starting to restore investor confidence.

Unfortunately, the turmoil surrounding my Chairmanship and the Agency makes it very difficult for the Commissioners and dedicated SEC Staffers to perform their critical assignments. Rather than be a burden to you or the Agency, I feel it is in everyone's best interest if I step aside now, to allow the agency to continue the important efforts we have started.

It has been a sincere pleasure to serve under you. I know the Country is in excellent hands, and you have my continuing admiration, respect, affection and support.

Sincerely,

Harvey L. Pitt

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:

Sending The Wrong Message

Rather than allow the markets and the economy to naturally bottom and heal themselves, the Fed seems to be hell bent on preventing any healing process from occurring. The message seems to be that there will be no hangover from the 90's debt and spending binge. There is this general feeling of omnipotence when it comes to the Fed. Somewhere along the way we have lost the concept of how our economy works. We now believe that we can socially engineer any outcome through various means of monetary and fiscal policy. The message is there will be no more bear markets or no more recessions when in fact, that is what we keep getting. Furthermore, by creating additional bubbles in housing and consumption, the Fed has set itself up for more breakdowns and failures.

Black Blade: Keynesians vs. Austrian School � right? Managed economy vs. economic cycles.


Complacency in Oil Markets

One topic that isn't receiving more attention is the dwindling supplies of oil and natural gas in this country. The IEA sees oil stocks trending lower this year despite sluggish product demand, poor refining margins and decreased compliance by OPEC. The IEA argues that those who say the market fundamentals remain weak have underestimated the great disconnect between crude and product stocks. Crude oil stocks are low and are still trending lower. The agency believes critical oil stocks remain low heading into the winter heating season. We are now down to about 55 days of forward cover. Moreover, natural gas production in the US continues to decline. It declined by 1% in Q3 and is expected to decline by 5-10% in Q4. Natural gas production has fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter. Rig counts remain low and drilling activity has not increased significantly. We are, in the words of one energy expert, only a winter's storm away from our next energy crisis.

There is now a growing consensus within the intelligence community that al Qaeda is shifting its attention to economic assets. During the Afghan campaign last year, the US picked up plans and photographs of key energy installations in the US, which included refineries, nuclear power plants, pipelines and other energy assets. If you want to stop the economy, you need to stop the fuel, which runs the economy -- cheap and abundant energy. A severe oil shock similar to what happened during the 1970's would do irreparable harm to an already fragile economy. In fact, a disruption in the supply of energy would do more harm to Europe and Asia as they are more dependent on imported oil.


Black Blade: I may have to address this subject again. I have been laying off this subject with all the other events occurring in the markets and around the world. But insufficient energy supply (rather "cheap energy" supply) is a growing problem. Most disturbing is the disaster coming in the NatGas supply as reserves are not being replaced as all new power generation is NG fired and more NatGas fired power plants are coming online. Watch out for higher energy costs in the next few months. A category killer if there ever was one. A very good read tonight at Puplava's site if you are interested in the problems that can occur with respect to energy.

Thank you for the quick response to my query Sir Gandalf and Sir Black Blade. I only ask because I've come to expect accuracy at a far greater distance than point-blank range from the wise here. A great analogy though, the elk, as the season for those wonderful ruminants draws close in my neck of the woods, and I too look forward to the chase!

Much like the mighty elk is the "Grail of Wisdom" we all here seek, I think we will not find it in our closet nor under our beds - but must seek it out, sometimes at great distances, with only the wisdom and experience of our leaders to guide us. While one may certainly sit by his window and wait while the quarry is lead past by knaves in the courtyard below, this teaches nothing of the chase, or the quest, to the young knights. Anticipating the forces that guide our prey, reading his sign, understanding what drives him, and to where - then being there well in advance of him, that takes wisdom. Let the wise and strong among us take up the Siege Perilous, and let the junior knights and squires follow their lead. Even if it's only a minor quest :-)

Excellent situation analysis. There will be no easy solution to the fiat mess. All the escape exits are blocked.

Thought's? Your spot on! Be lucky if they make past Christmas.
No more comment.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021106/0044000056_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Results from several key races early Wednesday showed Republicans appeared on the verge of retaking control of the U.S. Senate.

Black Blade: Looks like a done deal.

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Now that news organizations are predicting that the Republicans have retaken the Senate and hold the House, not to mention the resignation of SEC chairman Harvey Pitt, the U.S. market futures are rocketing to unbelievable levels, the USD is moving higher, Gold is flat, and petroleum is flat. If these levels hold it looks like a record high open on Wall Street. I guess Wall Street like the Republicans this time around. Should be fun to watch and see if the Lemmings jump over the cliff or not, or do they just become Lemming Stew? "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

This is my take on some of Pizz's comments.

Pizz wrote:

"...It all boils down to money, and we're out of it."

Me: I agree, but I suspect the more primal issue is ENERGY. Bush and Co are sitting atop the biggest, fiercest, hungriest industrial tiger ever - the USA. The energy that drives it is (mainly) oil and gas. The US has left it too late to implement an energy strategy that progressively substitutes renewables for fossils. They know what Hubbert's curve is telling them. If this administration understands anything, it understands oil.

The big "renewables" thrust over the years has been nuclear fusion. Many billions of dollars have been pored into fusion research. Although the basic physics has been understood for decades, the engineering solution remains elusive. It is debatable whether a similar expenditure on "less sexy" energy solutions over the years might have been successful. For example, hydrogen fuel cells are up and coming, but the hydrolysis of water to yeild hydrogen depends upon another primary source which must also be renewable. Candidates are direct solar photovoltaic conversion, tidal, ocean wave and wind. Not very sexy here, but large energy densities are available from these primary sources. There are many problems, for example, good catalysts for the hydrolysis reaction. Note however that the large-scale "electricity storage" problem seems to have been solved using Vanadium Redox Batteries (incidentally, an Australian invention, taken over by a Canadian company).



Pizz also said:

"...I am not a conspiracy buff, but people and organizations do tend to do desperate things, expecially if they're easier and less painful than the truth."

...

"So as all our 'enemies' soften their stances, and they're making sure not to give us any reason to go into Iraq, what is this administration going to do? The war on terror is losing it's credibility, and it's getting less credible all the time."

Me: The US is behind the energy 8-ball, and they need to be able to source large quantities of oil and gas reliably, fairly soon, and they don't have the money to pay for it. The conspiracy, if one may call it that, is that war on terror and villanising Iraq (Saddam) provides a convenient ploy to go after Iraqi oil and gas - the second largest reserve and the cheapest to tap in the world. I suspect the new UN resolution will contain wording with still enough handles to enable the US, if required, to force Saddam to appear in contravention of the resolution, enabling the US to appear reasonable in the use of force. Desperate "energy"-times demand desparate means.

However the administration will not want a Vietnam-type situation and that might arise. I suspect the diplomatic wires are running hot at the moment seeking non-violent access to the oil (e.g. Saddam into exile, new "friendly" regime in place.) The diplomacy will be backed up by overwhelming military deployments so that it will be apparent that Iraq (Saddam) is being made and offer "too good to refuse".

Of course, the US is not the only industrial country that would like cheap and reliable oil and gas. That is where things get interesting, and it may be where Saddam will be desperately trying to put other countrys' interests in between him and the US. Hence the hot diplomatic wires.

Interesting times...

Sundeck

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are rocketing higher and Euro markets are poised to do the same.Should be quite "entertaining" on Wall Street tomorrow. I wonder what will ahppen after the Fed announces though. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Just announced on on Fox News...... The Republicans have taken control of the Senate with the win in Missouri of Jim Talent. He will take his seat in two or three weeks after certification. Unlike other newly elected Senators who will be sworn in next year, Talent will fill the seat right away.

Watch fot he markets to continue the rally since the Republicans are viewed as more business friendly. I'm not sure of the implications for gold, but we may see a down day on Wednesday. Not to worry though.........just another buying opportunity !!

Draco

The 12 month moving average of silver production, as reported by the official Mexican institution "INEGI", has produced a declining curve, in place for about the last six or eight months.

I will try to post the table of data from which the curve was constructed, tomorrow.

I have not been able to pinpoint the producer(s) who are reporting diminished production. Pe--oles is not one of them, as it reports a small increase in production.

Sierra

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF850EB64%2DFE52%2D4BDB%2D8A7E%2DC86BA8B7453E%7D&siteid=mktw
Don't know if this has already been posted.

Looks like alot of things in Washington are going to be different today. The President will think long and hard about a replacement to restore investor confidence. The market will love this news as well.

All of this shake-up in Washington as well as the Fed meeting should make for an "interesting" day.

Draco

From Bill Bonner........

*** There were three major bull markets in America
during the last century, Richard Russell explained
yesterday. There was the 1921-'29 boom, the '49-'66 bull
market, and the most recent one, which he figures began
in 1974 and lasted until '99. The shortest of these last
8 years. The longest took 25 years to reach its apogee.
During this time, it took stock prices up 20 times from
where they started, making it the greatest bull market
in history.

Each big bull market, however, was followed by an
"extended, very complex bear market." Russell puts the
bear market following the '29 crash as the biggest -
lasting 20 years, until 1949.

These bear markets can take a long time to get where
they are going. Sooner or later they get there - down to
levels where stocks finally bottom out at 5-10 times
earnings.

The saving grace of previous bear markets was that
stocks paid dividends. But now, the average dividend is
barely a quarter of what it used to be.

The Trade of the Decade, we still believe, will be to
sell stocks and buy gold. Even if gold goes
nowhere...when stocks finally hit bottom, gold will look
like it's up from there.

************************************

End of the bear market? I think not.

This market has a long way to go to get back to P/E ratios of 5-10, even if earnings stayed the same. If you factor in declining earnings, it becomes clear that the drop must be even more extreme.

Hopfully the masses still in the market will take this rally as an opportunity to cut losses and convert to gold before it's too late. Time is short...very short.
The war in Iraq is next.

These are the times trhat try men's souls.............

Draco

This organization has puzzled me in my relatively short involvement in PMs. I accept that they work globally. Do they do ANYTHING in the US? I have had great hopes for Chris Thompson's involvement and guidance but I hope his great new "secret" to be unveiled isn't just some e-bullion deal.

What bothers me most is the apparent (due to India et al?) focus on gold as jewelry. In these incredible times of uncertainty, SM money "sitting on the sidelines," etc. why are there not full page ads strategically placed (picturing gold bullion coins, etc.) geared to INVESTORS? Is the WGC so poor that it can't afford high quality ads in the most prestigious publications? (On second thought, I don't read those publications because I'm not rich enough...maybe they DO have ads there??). Long rant short...I feel like the US market (investors) is especially "ripe" for a really good, coordinated effort to educate people here on the investment opportunities for gold. Simply telling some people how to go about acquiring a Gold Eagle would help (other than the stupid home shopping network on TV that I think has the gall to sell a Gold Eagle for over $500!!). If that is the public's only exposure to gold...no wonder they're not buying. Bridging the gap from investing in the stock market to buying gold bullion has to be spelled out to people who don't use the Internet like we do. TV, magazines. Newsletters and an occasional newspaper article don't tell people how to buy gold coins!! Egos being what they are, I wouldn't be surprised if many men don't buy gold just because they don't know how (just like asking for directions).

MK, or any of you incredibly knowledgeable and hopefully well-connected people in this market...do you have any contacts or influence with the WGC? They need help!

I am not sure what the World Gold Council has planned. I wonder if the plan is to develop a repository with vaults to store physical gold and to sell shares representing a set amount of bullion to institutional investors such as funds, banks, and maybe well placed individuals of great net worth. Perhaps these shares can be bought and sold based on the price of gold as one would do with stocks. As more shares are sold more gold is deposited into the vault. Anyway, I am only guessing as they announced that they had to work out the bugs and legal issues and then pass it by the regulators. There was discussion about potential problems with the legal issues concerning their plan (whatever it is). I guess we will just have to wait and see. Cheers!

- Black Blade

"I think GATA is right, there is enough evidence for a goldgate of sorts, and the last thing the central banks need is congressional investigations into how we got where we are. The big boys will go down in flames." ---Pizz msg#: 88858

Uh-oh. I just HATE the smell of litigation in the morning!!

I'm curious. Up to now there's been a plethora of legal market mechanisms to deliver the Gold situation we have today, of which the price is the highly distilled essence of that underlying causal reality. I have come to take immense comfort in my grasp of these banking and financial machinations -- to see them deliver Gold cheaply in our favor until the financial inflection point in the activity is reached, hailing its structural demise, at which point the accumulated Gold (and ONLY the Gold) pays off big time as the contracts burn out their short remaining timeline.

With all of these legal opportunities to preface a legitimate payoff of grand proportions, why would anyone risk the taint of illegality? Are you telling me that GATA actually *knows* of the exploitation of additional *ILLEGAL* mechanisms on top of the legitimate ones I've tried to convey?? What are they and how do they work, has anyone ever said? Just because some of these things are done on the D.L. doesn't automatically qualify them as illegal or the stuff of "gates."

Thus, being redundant to serve the purpose of cheap Gold during this post-Bretton Woods interlude, I've sincerely gotta say I'm skeptical that there's anything more substantial than a "fish story" at the end of that particular line. That's why I rather urge people to spend their energies reeling in Gold instead of reeling (in dizziness) under the nose of red herrings rotting on the deck. Gold in hand is a sure thing.

Get you some. --- Ari

Norm Coleman leads Walter Mondale as voters say Mondale is yesterday's old news. The race is still not being called by the media but it looks like a "done deal". John Thune is leading Tim Johnson in South Dakota in a nail-biter. It looks like it will go to Thune as the counties that remain to be counted are in the west part of the state and are heavily Republican. So far it looks like the Senate will have at least 53 Republicans with two more races to be decided. Meanwhile the market index futures indicate a record blowout at the open on Wall Street. Not sure if it due to the Republican victory or Harvey Pitt's resignation. Hey, maybe the President's Working Group on Financial Markets is attempting to kick start something. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021105/economy_employment_farms_2.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- An inexplicable surge in farm jobs has played a major part in keeping the U.S. unemployment rate down in recent months, despite persistent weakness in other labor market indicators.

Without the jump in farm-based employment since June, the jobless rate would have climbed steadily to reach 6.0 percent in October. Instead the jobless rate fell in September and then inched back to 5.7 percent last month.

If it had topped 6.0 percent, consumer confidence might have suffered far more, bond yields tumbled and the case for an interest rate cut -- now expected on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve -- might be that much clearer.

The strength baffles analysts and statisticians alike and could reinforce financial market skepticism of the unemployment figures as a reliable indicator of the economy.

"The massive surge in farm jobs has been an important factor depressing the published unemployment rate at a time of little or no growth in nonfarm payroll employment," said Rory Robertson, an interest rate strategist who covers the U.S. economy for Australian house Macquarie Equities.

"Of course, the rapid growth in farm jobs -- the fastest in more than 50 years of data -- seems implausible, to say the least," he added. --

http://in.news.yahoo.com/021106/54/1xdok.html

Snippit:

Chennai, Nov 5: A six-member all-woman gang from Nepal was nabbed on charges of stealing gold coins from a jewel shop and stolen articles worth several lakhs were recovered from them today. They diverted the attention of the salesmen, put gold coins totally weighing 424 grams in a box and went away. They then engaged an autorickshaw to go to other places. On the way, they got down after removing the coins from the box and leaving the empty box in the auto. Auto driver Selvaganesh, who noticed the empty box, went to the shop and handed over the same to the owner. The shop owner then only realised that the coins were stolen and informed the Royapettah police who in turn alerted other police stations and the control room. On specific information that the gang was staying in a hotel in the Flower Bazaar area, the police went there and swooped on the gang members.

Black Blade: A lot of effort and trouble for mere "barbarous relics". Hmmm�

My Guess...$$$307.5$$$
Is buying gold now similar to the late '60's?
NO!...Back then, the Dollar had an officially sanctioned Gold value of $35, nowadays Gold, in all it's manifestations, has a "freemarket" Dollar value of (say) $320.
The difference is profound fellow goldhearts. The former situation (60's) provided for a comparison, whereas the latter does not. Today, valuing Gold in Dollars (or ANY currency) is akin to ascribing a value of 4 Gallons to a Kilo of Wheat ie: more information is needed.
Gold-----Priceless Today.

It appears that the people of Minnesota were as disgusted with the sham memorial for dead Senator Paul Wellston as was Governor Jesse Ventura and they showed their displeasure by voting for the Republican candidate.

It now looks like the GOP sponsored "Energy Bill" will pass, the Kyoto Protocol Iniative is dead in the water, and several judicial appointments and political appointees will be confirmed and sworn in.

John Thune of S. Dakota looks likely to win over Tim Johnson in a slap in the face for current Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. This looks like as much of a clean sweep for the Repubs as could have been expected.

The Market futures and foreign markets are charging ahead on the election news and the news that Harvey Pitt has been effectively fired. The only thing that the markets could possibly want now is a 50 basis point rate cut instead of 25 basis points.

These are "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=fvxy%2Ctnxy%2Ctyxy%2Cgcv02.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=14&go.y=12It'll be interesting watching the Yield movements react to a rate cut, should it eventuate....Gold seems to have found a bottom @ $312 for now....It's all a Dollar thing, Dollar index looks weak, Rate cut should shore up $...let's see!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021106/markets_global_2.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stock markets advanced on Wednesday as investors expected a probable cut in U.S. interest rates and sweeping Republican victories in Congressional elections to inject fresh life into the world's biggest economy. Republicans, seen as more friendly to business, steamed to huge wins in midterm elections, keeping control of the House of Representatives and reclaiming the Senate in what was a historic sweep for President Bush.

Black Blade: Let the good times roll, never mind that nothing has really changed.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021106/markets_europe_stocks_6.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - European equities sailed higher on Wednesday morning, catching a fair wind from Wall Street and solid results at Europe's biggest bank BNP Paribas.
Sentiment was also given a fillip from news that Republicans had rolled to big wins in mid-term elections, holding control of the U.S. House of Representatives and scoring key Senate victories. The result will help clear the gridlock in Congress and give President Bush increased clout to push through tax initiatives, as well as promote potential military action against Iraq. "The election result is very good news as it opens the doors to more defense spending as well as tax cuts to boost all-important consumer spending. It also means that we could get a decisive move toward a Gulf War which has hung over the market for some time," said Rolf Elgeti, a European strategist at Commerzbank.

Black Blade: Yep, it's party time. Now the go ahead for war is a given and lower interest rates are on the way, the outlook for Gold is still bullish.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021105/markets_stocks_23.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Blue-chip stocks led Wall Street higher on Tuesday amid news of modest growth in the vast U.S. services sector, but investors marked time for most of the day, awaiting a possible interest-rate cut and the results of the day's voting in U.S. elections.

Black Blade: Boy, this morning everyone is as happy as a "pig in s***".

U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 10:

"No state shall � make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts."

Never amended, never repealed.
Still the law of the land.
���������������������������������..

Elected officials are sworn to uphold and protect the Constitution of the United States.
Yet they continuously ignore Article 1, Section 10.
They're either:
a) Grossly ignorant of the law
or,
b) Liars and thieves

The Republicans need a plan real soon. My guess is a major devaluation under the guise of heading off the threat of deflation. This basically takes debtors off the hook at the expense of creditors. The real trick is how to salvage the assets of the banks, pension funds, etc so they don't go under. Another approach is to close (or severely restrict) the dollar redemption window to offshore dollar holders as we did the gold window back in 71. This will effectively devalue the dollar and isolate the US economy for a period of time and force the rebuilding of our energy and manufacturing sectors.

The arab countries would be wise to back off the terrorism and weapons threats and work to pierce the debt bloated underbelly of our economy using their oil and gold resources. Actually, a dose of economic humiliation may work to our benefit in the long run.

Like Pizz, I am very interested in figuring out what this end game will be.

Boilermaker

Chris Powell of GATA just emailed the following to subscribers:

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The co-sponsors of the Monetary Reform and
Accountability Act, H.R. 3732, which would
require the U.S. Treasury Department and
its Exchange Stabilization Fund to obtain the
approval of Congress before intervening in
the gold market, were easily re-elected
Tuesday.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, received 68
percent of the vote, and U.S. Rep. John B.
Larson, D-Conn., received 67 percent.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Gold was still "remembered" as real currency by vastly more of life's pilgrims when still priced at $35 per ounce.These forums indeed help spread the word to new generations--but Joe Sixpack by and large doesn't have a clue yet.He will regretfully learn.

My guess $$$346.2$$$
Gold is more valuable to have under your mattress now than it was at $35.00 in the late 60's. Our government and our populace is much more corrupt and we need something real and of value in our possession. Trust only in G-d, your family, and knowlege.

FT 11/05 Headline:
Big oil groups wait to pick over spoils of Iraqi battlefield

Snippet: "...oil majors are finding it increasingly hard to meet production targets and Iraq's vast oilfields offer potentially huge rewards. The country's reserves - 112bn barrels according to the US Energy Administration - are exceeded only by Saudi Arabia's." "... The State Department will next month convene an oil and gas working group which would include representatives from the Iraqi opposition and the US Energy Department." "...But just how big the stakes will be for these companies could depend on whether Iraq stays in OPEC. If it leaves the producers cartel, its untapped oil fields could be set for rapid exploitation, enhancing the chances for foreign investors."

Comment: Meeting next month? Rapid exploitation to drive oil prices down? It's divide and conquer time. For the want of a sane energy policy oil madmen will take down the world. If there was no addiction to foreign oil in all likelyhood madmen like Hussein and Bin Laden wouldn't exist. Like gold, the solution is so simple yet seemingly impossible.

###316.7###

$$$316.7$$$

The election could be read another way:

1. A clear mandate for war

2. Administration economic team shake up could mean kicking the supports from under the so-called strong dollar policy (more a perception that the administration can do something than a reality)

3. Wall Street wrong-doer reprieve. Democrats ran hard on taking a look-see. That threat is gone.

4. Continued astronomical growth in the twin deficits (the Keynsian solution)

More. . . . .but those are the highlights. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks. I remember one of the wise ones here saying some time back that "gridlock" is a good thing. Now we have the Republicans in clear control. What might it mean for markets and gold??? We'll be watching for clues over the next few weeks.

Does anyone else hear the pitter patter of feet that may be coming from the recent SM buyers who are sneaking out the back door while Republicans party in the front room? Naw, probably just my wild imagination. They wouldn't abandon their party in its time of need, would they?
Lets see if the rally has legs. Cheers,
Boilermaker

nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 88896)
My guess...
$$$316.7$$$

nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 88895)
My guess...
###316.7###
===
Your THIRD time will be the charm !!
PLEASE RE-READ Contest RULE #7 !!!
Thanks
<;-)

it seems obvious to me that election results taken as a whole, show that voters are saturated in fear. my proof lies in the fact that status quo held firmer than in a long long time. in our case at this point in time the more of W's scent in politics the better. also look at the voter decisions on how drugs and drug crimes are treated. treatment for addicts? no way! put them in jail and they will get better, we think.

One of the things we must do as investors and/or analysts is attempt to ascertain the effects of perception and reality on investments. In a fiat based economy -- where the value of the currency is based on faith in the government and financial system -- what is not accomplished by doing things right is covered by creating the impression that everything is "being" done right, or "will be" done right. How long did the public feed off the erroneous perception that we were in a New Economy wherein the business cycle was mercifully put to sleep and stocks would rise forever unto heaven Amen -- a new secular religion based on eternal capital safety? All, alas, a perception. Just like currency value is perception -- an act of faith. If the religious right wanted to really tangle with the left's version of Genesis, they wouldn't bother with Darwin, they would challenge the leftist university version of socialist economics. That's where the promise is made of heaven on Earth. This is the real challenge to the God of the Bible. (And please let's not get into a religious discussion because I pointed that out -- in a political economy context, by the way.) All that aside. . . .What will be the new perceptions? Who knows. But I know they are about to be foisted upon us -- and this post has nothing to do with partisan politics. I hold both the Democrats and Republicans responsible. Perception is everything. Reality becomes residual -- almost second guessing. And you can be laughed at for pointing certain realities in this day and age, as most of us who own gold know. Perception is for speculators. Reality is for savers. And gold after all remains the best cash alternative to currency savings in a fiat economy living on perception.

______________________

"When I die I want to come back as the bond market." William Jefferson Clinton

(When told by then TreasSec Robert Rubin that the economic program of his administration would always have to factor in how the bond market would perceive it.)

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Following a brief printing hiatus, and no longer provided beyond one introductory issue to prospective clientele, our September newsletter tells it like it is to our established clients:

"...we emerge to introduce a new role for NEWS & VIEWS -- sifting through the avalanche of information being published these days and organizing it into something reader-friendly for our busy clientele. We hope you enjoy and gain from this first issue of our resurrected now bimonthly offering. May you welcome it like the return of an old friend.

"Speaking of old friends, it seems our old friend, Mr. Yellow, has altered his disposition since last we met ­ stubborn determination has reaped dogged progress, and most of the goldmeisters have spent a pleasant summer counting coup. Overnight, it seems, gold has gone from contemptible wastrel in the investment world to prime subject matter at Power Lunches around the world -- including CNBC's segment."
- - -
It's easy to be added to the ongoing distribution list for this newsletter -- mailed bimonthly to all of our clients. Just choose USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals as your precious metals brokerage, and enjoy the full benefits of three decades of experience and service!

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlWGC reports today:
"The Canadian government said yesterday that it had disposed of another 90,937 ounces of gold reserves last month, taking its holdings to 700,000 ounces."


Bottom line: Some things may be done by proxy. Owning gold is not one of them.

Call Jonathan, George and MK at Centennial and do what's right for you and your family.

R.

Thank you for your insights. Let's chat a bit about a couple of them.

1. "Up to now there's been a plethora of legal market mechanisms to deliver the Gold situation we have today, of which the price is the highly distilled essence of that underlying causal reality."

Yes, the price has been held down thru a variety of what appears to be legal mechanisms. But I do question the "properness" of the central banks holding leased gold as an asset on their books. I do question totally inadaquet disclosure regarding deriviatives and hedge programs. And I do question what appears to have been and is still continuing, the proliferation of the "strong" dollar world wide thru hedonistic inflation calculations and an artificially low gold price, among other things.

Now, within the larger picture frame, if all is well and legal, why can't we get disclosure? "Fish Story?" Maybe, but as the system unravels a bit, I think there will be more than enough "gate" material to go around, cause there sure won't be enough gold (or silver for that matter).

2. "With all of these legal opportunities to preface a legitimate payoff of grand proportions, why would anyone risk the taint of illegality?"

Real simple Ari, human nature, greed, arrogance, and the 100% belief that they are too big, powerful, or connected to fall. The masses just may think that they have been slightly hoodwinked before this is all over.

And as far as ONLY physical gold? Sir, I respect your thoughts and insights into the issues, but for most people to throw all their eggs into the physical GOLD basket is extremely poor investment advice. EVERYTHING except physical gold is going to go down??? Pretty extreme view.

Pizz

$$$$320.2$$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No, much more like a bargain. Today's political and economic forces are going to push (unwillingly) the price of gold to unknown heights not even seen during the early -80. I also think that gold is going to be valued and traded in other currencies than US dollar. It (gold)
will become one of the weapons in the future economic warfare of this planet � used by Asian and ME countries in a joint attack on several western countries. By then � in the west - it will be regarded disloyal to own gold.

NEMO

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/monetary/2002/20021106/default.htmNovember 6, 2002

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 1/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3/4 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. However, incoming economic data have tended to confirm that greater uncertainty, in part attributable to heightened geopolitical risks, is currently inhibiting spending, production, and employment. Inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained.

In these circumstances, the Committee believes that today's additional monetary easing should prove helpful as the economy works its way through this current soft spot. With this action, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals in the foreseeable future.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.

In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and New York.

As for buying gold now as opposed to buying it in 1960 at $35/oz. i dont know personally, was a young boy. however i would conjecture that to buy today is better as an investment and as a safe harbor. there are more people nowadays you know. gold supply has not grown proportionally. if looking at the price of stamps, inflation is 1,000+% so the cost basis is similar i guess. if looking at the price of gas, inflation is only about 600-700%. the extremely interesting times we have been in since the civil war are only more interesting now, as they will be even more interesting in the nearer future. buying gold now is like buying amazon.com before its' bubble i believe (imho).

It looks like the last bottle of booz is handed to the dying alcoholic.

NEMO

I have heard it said a cut like this kills the gold carry trade.Can anyone explain?What are the implications for gold?Coz,it doesnt look like it helped the dow at all.Maybe people see it for what it really is,the fed knows something the public doesnt.I guess this way Greenspin can say he did everything he could to save us from ourselves.

Smacks of more desperation. Banks and interest rate derivatives appear to be on the short list for bailouts.

Deflation is not an option. Crank up the presses, cause we're in deeper than all the massaged stats have been indicating.

Controlled inflation and dollar devaluation would appear to be the new "unofficial policy". A half point gives the EU room for a quarter point drop, with a continuous controlled slide for the buck.

Going to be a bit harder to bash gold too much longer. With this dramatic a cut .5/1.75 = 28.5% reduction towards zero, the "inflation" word is going to be bantered about alot.

Wonder if the central banks are still willing to lease gold as required to keep the gold price down as Mr. G. has said. Might be a bit smarter to get it back.

Pizz

The announcement came shortly after Comex closed and before the electronic trading market opens. Comex closed at 1:30 EST and the globex starts at 3:15 EST, just a few minute from now.
I'm amazed that they lowered at all, shocked that they lowered by half a point from what was such a low level. My surprise is based on my thoughts that lowering this rate will severely hurt the dollar's strength but this is just my opinion and I'll be the first to admit I know very little about currency (interest) games. About all I know is that lower returns will entice investors out of low interest bearing paper into anything with a higher return.
With an honest inflation number versus low interest returns on paper, (?) negative returns? What do you mean holding gold pays no interest. No interest on an appreciating holding is certainly a whole lot better than any negative returns, no?
I've got a few scouts located on the high ground keeping an eagle eye open for the much anticipated return of Mr. Bigfloat. He's been gone overseas for many years now but rumor has it that he's grown, like Andre the Giant, to huge proportions. Am I right to keep watch for him???
POG and sister POS on the globex. Could be fun to watch!
Rich

The socialists have been defeated very soundly at the polls.
Risotti resigns from the IRS,after wild claims recounted.First he says 70 billions lost from offshore accounts,now he says 450 million lost.Hell the politicians just spent almost a billion to get elected.450 million is chicken feed.!!!
The socialists lies have been soundly defeated.Gold goes up ,the Dollar down and sound money is making a comeback.
Socialized medicine defeated in Oregon,pot smokers defeated in Arizona and elsewhere at the polls.Now the only thing left to worry about are the fascists.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for awhile.

While the Administration's Treasury Department has fallen mum on the issue, the latest target rate cut (to 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with an institution-saving discount rate at 0.75%!) tells the score loud and clear. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world -- these are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 88908)
$$$$ 323.23 $$$$$
===
HELP !!! Whereas your Rule #7 paragraph was "FANTASTIC", you managed to break RULE #3 !!!

How about just $323.2 as it is available !
<;-)

A white paper released Tuesday estimates that asset deflation has caused 1.16 quadrillion yen in capital losses and calls for implementation of structural reform to bolster the economy.

The report comes at a time when the economy is struggling under the weight of massive bad loans and excessive corporate debts.

The "Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance (2001-2002)" was submitted by Heizo Takenaka, state minister in charge of economic, fiscal and financial policy, to the regular Cabinet meeting the same day.
______________
Inflation would make it easier to pay back loans with cheaper
currency.

Goldcorp rings closing bell on NYSE!
LOL Just on TV.

The huge cut should crush dollar, it should have sent Gold flying.
The market must be in shock. This is incredibly bullish for gold
but no reaction. Now that the cut is in, market overbought, and
dollar weakening tomorrow the SM should correct.
Weird. Weird. Weird.

Does the Fed know something we are not aware of?
Maybe they know numbers on unemployment are cooked?

So here we are, a surpirise interest rate cut of 50 basis points, and a united political front for the first time in 50 years. So where do we go from here? I suspect that we will see a weaker US dollar policy develop and now the Fed will be given a free hand to fire up the printing presses 24/7. We now may see a return to higher PM prices, higher equities prices, and weaker bond prices. In short we could even see an eventual return to the stagflation of the 1970's if some external event like say - higher energy prices - were to act as a trigger. Anyway, I will have to run this through my mind for a while. As I say - "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlIt's ALL here...thanks Black Blade!

Yes, I'm in STOCKS! Stocks, stocks!! I'm a long-term holder of STOCKS- and I don't care who knows it.

I believe in STOCKS AND BONDS through thick and thin, and my portfolio is substantial and diversified. Hear about my holdings, and cringe:

Republic of Peru 5% gold bonds of 1920
International Rail Road Co. - State of Texas 1874
Mexico North Western Railway Company 1910
Societ� de Navigation Transoceanique, S.A. 1 Aout 1920
Anglo-Ottoman Tobacco Company, Ltd., 1 Dec 1913
5% Loan of the City of Baku, 1910
Lloyd Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Budapest, 1921
The Anglo-Argentine Tramways Co., Ltd., 1910
The St. Petersburg Land and Mortgage Co., Ltd. 1912
Compagnie G�nerale de Chemins de Fer et de
Tramways en Chine, S.A.
Banque Industrielle de Chine 7 Mai 1920
Negociaci--n Minera "El Alacr�n y Anexas", S.A. 22 Oct 1919

These are just a few my choice holdings - lovely to look at, delightful to hold...

Phew, I'm glad I got that off my chest. I've come clean about my STOCKS AND BONDS. I'm not parting with them, no matter what!

Sierra

Sierra Madre (11/06/02; 14:44:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 88919)
Yes, I'm in STOCKS! Stocks, stocks!!
---
YES INDEED !! I too have some of those same STOCKS -- on my wall as wallpaper !!!
<;-)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton072301.htmlOk, so the Fed cuts by 50 points. What does this mean, how does it affect gold?? The above link is to an article written in July 2001 that explains probabilties, and in reading the article in the present time, the author almost appears to have been either a prophet, or physic. Rather long, but worthy of a read IMHO.

Based on the article, it does appear that the "to the moon" so many goldbugs have longed for, is just around the next bend on this golden trail.

Time for serious preparation/accumlation.

I am jealous! Impressive portfolio :0)

Apart from that, here's a question that bothered me for a while. Tried to research it myself, but can't seem to find an answer.

How did the performance of gold mining stocks compare to the overall SM performance during bear markets (or depression)? And was there such thing as gold mining stocks?

Keep the faith, brother! I'm sure if you keep 'em long enough those dead dogs will get up and hunt! Just a few more decades...

Thanks for the laugh!!

The Golden Retriever --- Aristotle

Courtesy of Neil George (KCI Comm.):

The chairman of the SEC announced yesterday that he's resigning his post and will head back to his cushy private practice. Harvey, of course, never was that happy in his role
of a lowly paid public servant. Almost immediately, Harvey was bucking his boss and Congress for a raise--along with a better office and cabinet status in the administration. But not all was lost for him during his rather brief tenure. He did manage to forestall more intensive investigations and a greater number of potentially rattling Wall Street fines, sanctions and arrests. For this, Harvey probably has a nice book of chits that he can easily call in to fill his order book of clients and get on with earning his old income, which was typically in the higher seven-figure area.

Bill Webster, Harvey's handpicked man for the job of accounting cop must be sweating a little--even in chilly Washington. Bill is gathering even more opponents to his recent appointment, along with a lawsuit or two concerning his activities as a private attorney and board member of a collection of companies--including one under investigation for fraud. This should come as little surprise to those that knew him during his previous gigs in public service. My cohort and retired super spook Stan Bedlington recently told me that there were sighs of relief and more than a few chuckles coming from the Hoover building when Webster left the FBI for his new digs across the Potomac in Langley to head up the CIA in 1987. But all of the hoopla might be coming to a quick end as rumors are circulating that Webster too will step down from his SEC appointment.


Black Blade: Harvey was a joke in Washington for quite some time. I am surprised that he was offered the job as SEC chairman and I was not surprised that his career ended in disgrace either. His "slap on the wrist" penalties for corporate criminals was gaining legendary status. It is no surprise then that New York City Attorney General Eliot Spitzer took on the job himself and undercut Harvey. Even so, Spitzer is also a disgrace who is handing out his own "slaps on the wrist" for corporate criminals. Maybe Harvey's successor will have some cajones and actually do his job. Time will tell.

The Fed is getting close to shutting down mm funds with the latest move. Where do you suppose the lemmmings will put these dollars? This is the time for the World Gold Council to put their advertising $ into some major financial media.

Boilermaker

Buying gold now at its current price range is similar to buying gold for $35 per ounce in the late 1960s. Many of the specifics of the situation are different now, but the key similarity - gold is undervalued and set to rise according to market forces - is firmly in place.

Now we need our gracious host MK to step up like the auto marketers and offer us poor goldbugs similar deals, ie., zero down, no payments for 12 months and a five year bumper to bumper warranty. Thanks, Michael, we love you.

Boilermaker

http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/06/news/pitt_replacement/

Giuliani, Breeden among names floated; administration says finding a successor will take time.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - While there was a growing consensus that Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt had to go, finding a replacement everyone can agree on will be a tough job. Pitt's Tuesday night resignation under pressure set off immediate speculation on who his replacement will be.

Black Blade: I submit my name for consideration. Unfortunately I would go after these corporate criminals like a junkyard dog. But then the job of SEC chairman is really a joke and the real job is to slap a few wrists while ignoring the real problem (wink wink, nod and wink).

I see that the POG is solidly higher and the USD is crumbling. Should be "interesting" and "entertaining" tonight.

- Off to the gym!!!

There used to be a science fiction story about an amateur astronomer who one night discovered that a number of stars were moving across the sky toward new locations. The story was long, but what it amounted to basically is that the stars ended up spelling the name of a soap, and the owner of the soap company then announced that he had funded research which had resulted in the new process being discovered, by which stars could be moved, and so he chose to use the technique to advertise his product. The outcome of the story was that people bought a whole lot more of that particular brand of soap. I think that is what has happened in the U.S. The party most strongly desirous of power has attained it, partly due to their having produced the most arresting advertisments, and the realities that go along with it. Whether this is good or bad, I leave to others. For the concepts of 'good' and 'evil' are not all that useful, when attempting to assess the actual exigencies of reality. It is clear, though, that inflation destroys most people's wealth, and that inflation is intentionally managed in such ways as achieve that purpose. Also, there can be no lasting doubt that those who lend money, if they are knowledgeable, wholly understand that borrowed money creates a widespread situation leading to deflation -which is created to occur prior to inflation- and this makes it impossible for many of the loans to be repaid. People who do not understand this have not done their homework. It is easy to prove, easy to understand, and, in the present state of the relatively primitive state of human development, which prevails not only in the U.S. but even worse elsewhere, it is clear that managing the economies of nations for the purpose of enriching a few is not only rather easy to accomplish, for those in positions to do so, for themselves as well as for others of their own kind, but it is also not very difficult to keep most people ignorant of it.

I hope this table shows up intelligibly after posting:
The first column is production, the second, the average (data in tonnes):

Jan 01 236.7 236.7
Feb 01 250.7 243.7
Mar 249.2 245.5
Apr 195.7 233
May 279.4 242.3
Jun 240.2 241.9
Jul 262.1 244.8
Aug 252.1 245.7
Sep 266.6 248
Oct 278.7 251.1
Nov 252.2 251.2
Dec 266.1 252.4 (12 mo. M.A.)
Jan 02 274.1 255.1 "
Feb. 229.8 253.8 "
Mar. 223.1 251.6 "
Apr. 273.9 258.1 "
May 228.7 253.9 "
Jun 243.4 254.2 "
Jul 204.4 249.4 "
Aug 229.6 247.55 "

The 12 month moving average appears to have peaked about Jan 02 at 255.1 tonnes, with a gradual descent thereafter; although there was a transitory jump upwards in April to 258.1, the trend appears to be a gradual slump in production.

Facts for those who are interested. Source: "INEGI", Mexico.

Sierra
Jan 02

Up now $1.60 on access trading and in Sydney. Perhaps not earth shattering but heading in the right direction. Methinks metals and perhaps all commodities' prices will be arising if the lower rates are perceived as bad medicine for the dollar.

Sierra, I didn't see Pan American airlines in your list of stocks. I still have a certificate framed on the wall for 100 shares I bought at about $2-3/per. Where was the Gummint bailout when Pan Am needed it? I guess they weren't quite big enough to "not fail".

Kodie, 22,500 ounces! I fully understand the need to lighten the load. I was curious as to whether you had decided silver dollar prices would be forever low and, if so, why. Just too heavy to carry I fully understand. Truthfully, now, you didn't even keep a 100 ounce brick for a doorstop?
Rich

Operative

Thanks for the great information in 88921 ; that was an excellent read.

Makcumca

I don't remember where I read this ; it was within the last year ... I just found it ; hope this adresses your inquiry.

From GROW 1000% RICHER IN THE GREAT STOCK PANIC OF 2002 " by Martin Weiss.....

In this section of the book Martin is quoting his Dad Irving Wiess who lived throught this time and he did very well...

P 50
Snippit

" We boughht as much as we could , while we still could - gold coins, shares, bullion , you name it. WHen the confiscation was announced, we were ready. But we were also stunned. We had no idea FDR was going to be that tough.
Dome Mining went from $6 to $61 after the '29 crash. Most investros have no idea how huge the profits were in gold shares after the crash in '29. Homestake , for instance , went from a bottom of $65 per share after the crash to $130 and change in 1931. Form there, it doubled again to more than $350 a share by 1933. By the time it peaked in 1936, it had climbed to $540 and share - an astronomical gain of more than $470 per share . That was a 7 fold increase.

In the meantime, the dividends also doubled . redoubled , and doubled again- reaching $56 per share in 1935. Think about it. The dividends earned in one year alone almost paid back the enire purchase price of the stock .

Homestake was not an isolated example . Dome , another great gold producer, did even better. You could have bought Dome for as little as $6 a share after the crash. But in the next seven years, it paid $16.60 in dividends . The dividends alone were equal to more than 2.5 times the cost of the stock. Meanwhile , the price of Dome rose to $61 . A person who put $10000 into Dome could have walked away with more than $100,000- while nearly everything else remained depressed."

Here's and excerpt on Silver:

"Back then silver was selling for a meager 17 cents per ounce. I knew that industrial demand was about to take off. When I finished the report a couple of months later, Baxter decided the arguments were so strong that we should release the report to our best clients and sbuscribers before making it available to the general public.
The very first person we called was Joe Kennedy, the father of JFK. Kennedy really liked the idea but later , he decided to beg off because his advisors told him it was too much of a "long shot." The man was wealthy enough as it was, but this wound up costing him another fortune.
I bought siver at around 17 cents but I didn't ride it up to $50. I wish I had . I got out of silver
in the 1950's having multiplied my money several times over. I thought I was smart to take a profit like that."

Base on Operative's post following yours .....It looks like this may be in the cards again....
Makes a person want to trade some more fiat for ......physical...It's a good time to be living in the realm of one's means ( job income ) in order to be able to forgo dividends or bond income in preference to holding hard assets in "REAL MONEY " terms....

-Cometose-

I did keep some rounds, eagles, some 10 oz. bars, a kook or two and 10 100 oz. bars still in the wrappers.

I can't answer the question technically or fundamentally about what the POS is going to do. So, strictly from a personal point of view, I think gold will serve my purposes better. I have a better feeling about gold anyway and it sure is pretty!

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=11/7/02&Cat=9Νm=3KUALA LUMPUR -- Iran has offered to use the Gold Dinar for bilateral business with Malaysia, Deputy Finance Minister Mohd Shafie Salleh said on Wednesday, IRNA reported.

He said top officials from Iran had expressed their intention to use the dinar in their business transactions with Malaysia under the bilateral payment agreement.

"These officials told me of their intention during last month's Islamic Development Conference in Africa. The meeting was attended by all the finance ministers of the Islamic nations," said Mohd Shafie, who represented Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in the conference.

The prime minister was quoted as saying recently that Malaysia planned to set up a secretariat in the country to promote the idea of using the Gold Dinar among central banks of other Muslim countries.

Speaking to newsmen here, Shafie said that he would be submitting his detailed report to the cabinet on Iran's offer.

He said various issues would have to be taken into consideration, including the current diplomatic and bilateral relations between Malaysia and Iran.
_________________
I think Greenspan wants a weaker dollar. Wants some inflation to
stop deflation.

The media has completely ignored a Taliban Prime Minister
soon to lead Pak parliament. Thats more of a threat than Iraq.
Pak has nukes and missiles and now a pro-taliban PM and
legislature. Thats the big election story.

The following is quoted from the Privateer's Gold this Week from last Saturday:

"Waiting For Wednesday?"
The "Wednesday" in question is, of course, Wednesday, November 6. This is the day after the US mid-term elections, and the day when the FOMC meets to decide on US interest rates. Depending on your evaluation of the present state of the US economy and financial system, you are waiting for Wednesday for entirely different reasons.

If you are a Wall Street pundit, or simply a long suffering investor who has not yet given up hope (you certainly have nothing else left) that the US economy and especially the US stock market are on the "road to recovery", you are waiting for Wednesday because you expect the Fed to lower rates by at least 0.25% and preferably by 0.50%. This, if it happens, will be the first Fed rate cut in almost a year and you are "confident" that it will kick start the economy, and more important, the markets.

If, on the other hand (no one armed economists here), you are watching the US economy with your eyes wide open and your mind in gear, you are waiting for Wednesday because it IS the day AFTER the US mid-term elections, and you know that US markets have been held up by main force in the lead up to these elections. You are also waiting to see what the Fed does. You know that if the Fed cuts rates, it will be admitting to anyone with eyes to see that all the talk about US "recovery" was so much hot air. WHY CUT RATES IF THE US ECONOMY IS IN RECOVERY AND IS GROWING? You also know that if the Fed cuts rates, the chances are VERY high that the U.S. Dollar will fall, quite possibly precipitously.
...above quoted from Bill buckler-unquote -

Well, Wednesday has come and the FED has lowered the IR at maximum expectations of 50bp's, following Tuesdays midterm elections seeing GWB as a historical winner of both houses.

The SM's rather reluctantly followed the scrip and closed in positive territory, while the bonds and the $ took a beating. Comex Gold had already closed, due to ongoing short trading hours following 911, though in the access markets POG steadily tagged upwards.

So I'm waiting for Thursday now. The ECB and the BOE will decide on their IR level and I have to admit, I'm clueless. EU politicians demand easing, while the stability pact deteriorated to a mere lip service in view of deteriorating economies, the euro has already surpassed $ parity again today and 'beggar your neighbor" policy seems as the easy way to cope.
Is it? I doubt it, as the EU is facing similar structural economic problems as the US it may be daunting to Wim Duisenberg to see the euro establishing some hegemonial reserve status as well?

As neither fiat currency, hegemonial or not, competing for the perfection to return to its intrinsic value, the real question will be - have the PTB lost its control of PPOG = Paper Price of Gold?

If yes, and I lean towards the demand/supply dis-equilibrium of physical gold the time span to enable the private and personal acquisition of real wealth is drawing to an end ... and as a gent called Scruffy says - BCBN -buy cheap, buy now - cb2

It's good that you question the "properness" of things as you say. So do I.

For good or ill, mankind stumbles along and changes the rules as we go based on the backlash of things gone awry -- things once deemed acceptable (if not exactly proper) but later not so under closer scrutiny of magnification. Sorta like our experimentation with prohibition, I guess. Or fixed-convertibility of money. Or prohibitions on Gold ownership. Or slavery. So on, so forth.

The key is to try to read the road ahead, do your bit to contribute to the improvement of the way, and most important of all, to avoid being crushed as the wheel inevitably goes round.

The part I like best is the little bit of help we occasionally get from a kindly soul here and there along the very narrowest stretches of our journeys; the ones who tell us to look upward -- against all odds when the road ahead seems so compellingly clear cut for the wheels to follow -- thus saving us the blindside crush of falling pianos.

More specifically, you said, "I do question the "properness" of the central banks holding leased gold as an asset on their books."

Let's be clear on this so that everyone can join in a deeper level of understanding. Do you (you=everyone, generally speaking) realize what impropriety the central bank is being accused of here?

Effectively, the CBs are being vilified for putting (as a ledger allocation, not necessarily physically) their Gold on deposit in a savings account under the care of large commercial banking institutions.

Don't we consider our own savings accounts, many of them administered by some of these same commercial banks, to be among our assets?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. In other words, "proper is as proper does." Are you willing to contribute to a new outlook and a new management plan for Gold through your own small behavior? I am. I lead by example. When it comes to Gold it's Physical only and clear ownership. A pox upon unallocated accounts.

Can you concede that if CBs are vilified for depositing Gold into savings accounts, then the rank-and-file chorus for "Ye Olde Gold Standard" has surely lost its harmony? Its so discordant I frankly cringe when I hear mere mention of the tune.

On a final note, I'm saddened to see that you have now joined with others in taking my words and whitewashing away the important nuances that singularly give them credibility.

You said, "And as far as ONLY physical gold? Sir, I respect your thoughts and insights into the issues, but for most people to throw all their eggs into the physical GOLD basket is extremely poor investment advice. EVERYTHING except physical gold is going to go down??? Pretty extreme view."

Thanks for the public castration. I now stand impotent before the world in the eyes of anyone who would see me through your spectacles.

Please scroll down (I beseech you, it's not far) to my 88879 message this morning. A fairer read of it will reveal that you've neglected the operative word "the" as used in the conclusion of my third paragraph.

I was not pitting physical Gold in absolutes against all other investments in absolutes. I was contrasting the endgame fate of only the two sides directly involved in this teeny tiny little Gold-related realm. Here again is my statement, you'll please notice, not pitting Gold (in general, with no "the") against unrelated things in general, but rather specifically pitting THE acquired Gold against THE Gold Promises that stand on the other side of this duet.

I said of these bullion operations, "the financial inflection point in the activity is reached, hailing its structural demise, at which point the accumulated Gold (and ONLY the Gold) pays off big time as the contracts burn out their short remaining timeline."

In that matchup (final showdown) between Physical and Physical-related Promises, what I'm saying is it's only THE Gold-in-hand (side) that wins. If you wanna play around with THAT matchup, pick the physical side. Period.

That's a far cry from advocating (according to your summary) an "all eggs into a physical Gold basket" sorta thing. Hell, a man needs an income stream. What's wrong with dividends from investments in highly profitable business ventures? Nothing! I highly endorse such a thing. Money's a great thing, income is awesome! By all means, tap the vein and plug yourself in. What part of this message gets lost in the transmission??? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!!!!

Please note, Pizz, that you shouldn't confuse the simple passion of exclamation points with anger or whatever. Gold's a GOOD thing, and so is any good-faith conversation about it, as this attempts to be.

Gold. Get you SOME (but not ALL. Unless you really REALY wanna.) --- Aristotle

National Airlines just announced out of Las Vegas that they have gone belly up and have officially filed for bankruptcy.
Please throw this on the bone pile as more refuse builds up!!

I was hoping someone from this illustrious forum could assist me in recalling the title/author of a book. I would like to read it again. Some of the information given may seem superfluous but I'm hoping it will jog somebody's memory. The book was not popular as it was not available in my local library. I had to request that it be borrowed from another institution. I heard of the book while lurking in the old Prodigy precious metal bulletin boards on my Commodore computer in the early/mid 1980's. I believe the author was an American and the son of an Austrian banker and held to a hard money economic principle. I believe the book was written in the late 1970's or early 1980's.
At the time, I was just beginning my career and distinctly remember the dollar was pooh and having to take out a 5 year/21% fixed interest rate note. It was difficult to fathom what the author was predicting---That confidence in the dollar would be restored in such a profound fashion that interest rates would once again fall to 2-3% like they were in the early 1950's. Then, and only then, once all the world/investors/suckers were locked in for 30 years at that low rate---we would undergo a hyperinflation. Sound familiar?
If he was right, I was wondering---Why do away with 30yr Treasuries? Maybe to direct 30yr money to the mortgage market to keep the real estate bubble going?
I know it's not a lot to go by, but any ideas would be appreciated. Perhaps I can recall some more clues.

Noble1

Remember: Gold is the Noble1

i came here today for solace after the fed rate cut my fair knights ,maidens and wizzards. what relief it is to have a place to come to. As it happend to me again today while discussing the rate cut gold came up and dang the preson i was speaking with couldnt get out of the room quick enough. how sad it was to witness someone who will not even give it a second thought. but the posts here have reinvigorated me. thanks ....

town crier re
TownCrier (11/06/02; 10:47:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 88904)
Canadians, it is up to you to own gold; your government won't do it for you
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.html
WGC reports today:
"The Canadian government said yesterday that it had disposed of another 90,937 ounces of gold reserves last month, taking its holdings to 700,000 ounces."

maybe they are depending on gold corp. as by the time its allover gg will have more gold than the canadian govt( ok thats a big speculation but it sounded good. just like this does
free gold.... open the mint... silver first f the imf!

Thank you for the information. It is definitely going to help in my quest for financial security. If I could only borrow some money at 1.25%....

@ Aristotle

So... you suggest I return my pile of Levi's jeans I was planning on smuggling into old USSR for huge profits and buy gold? Maybe we should figure out a product that could be so desirable that everyone would want it but no one could get it in the US after TSHTF... Oh, I got it, how about a CREDIT CARD? The levels of consumer debt blow my mind.

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20021106-125004-6115rOn the whole, diplomats seem to expect a change in tone coming from Washington rather than any dramatic new shifts in policy. The executive branch always runs foreign policy, aside from big issues like war or peace or the ratification of treaties.

And on the main issues, like threatening war on Iraq or the new national security doctrine that authorizes pre-emptive strikes, have already been decided.

In Asia, officials were trying to assess what the elections could mean for their region. Taku Yamasaki, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, concluded that America's War on terrorism would continue even more forcefully, since the Republican victory "confirms that public opinion remained united behind the Bush administration's policy."

"In terms of foreign policy, Mr. Bush would gain much more leeway in dealing with the war on terrorism and the Iraq threat," said Singapore's Straits Times.

In South Korea, some commentators saw the election result strengthening Bush's hands if he decided to get tough with North Korea over its admission that it was enriching uranium with a view to developing nuclear weapons.

But they also feared the Korean issues might be on the back burner, after Powell called Foreign Minister Choi Sung-hong on Wednesday and said he had to cancel a planned visit to South Korea next week because of "unavoidable circumstances" related to the U.N. Security Council resolution on Iraq.

In Europe and the Middle East, media comment seemed to expect a tougher line coming from Washington over Iraq, with an agreed resolution in the U.N. Security Council said to be very close.

"The prospect of waging war on Iraq looks to be increased," Qatar-based Al Jazeera TV said Wednesday.
______________
Bush's hand has been strengthened to pursue his economic
and foreign policies now.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=33145In a surprising development, a broad coalition of Islamic parties have cobbled together enough mandates to form a ruling coalition in Pakistan.

This was accomplished in part through the cooperation of Benazir Bhutto, President Musharraf's arch political rival. The group is expected to formally attempt to form a government in the next few days.

This development is being viewed with alarm in Washington, as it would install a pro-Taliban government in control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
_________________
Mainstream media not covering this story. This is a real problem
for the world. Iraq is small potatoes compared to Pak nukes and
missiles.

Then again, Pak has no oil. Its all about who controls
Iraq oil. US & UK vs Russia, France and China.

Wow! Half a point? Are we not thoroughly into 'negative return' now?

After inflation, investing in UST must be now a losing proposition. What happens now?

P.S.: I agree with the escalation of the Iraq smacking. It is a known Bush wants to go, the 'green light' he received can only be perceived as a endorsement of his bellowing. Hussein's goose is cooked.

Hold *steady* on your charted course - and please do not be discouraged by someone's responses. One thing I've learned is that although I may not see ANY results of my efforts for something - i.e. when trying to influence someone's attitudes, beliefs, etc., there are times when I have planted a seed - some I never know about - or sometimes I find out years later that some seemingly insignificant comment, or debate or action in fact inspired someone beyond my wildest expectations. You may have planted a seed today which will take root in the future - don't despair just because the response was not immediate - and persevere - years of brainwashing by the media and government doesn't change overnight. Cheers,

Waverider

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Time to Take Out an Insurance Policy

The dictionary defines insurance as "an insuring or being insured against loss; a system of protection against loss�." I would suggest to most investors that now is the time to think about owning insurance against financial loss. The insurance I'm referring to is gold and silver. The surprise rate cut by the Fed today of 1/2 a point speaks volumes as to the amount of risk in the financial system. Systemic risk is everywhere and especially here in the US. The fact that the Fed cut rates a half a point says that economic prospects are much more bleak than is reported. The profit picture in the US has been in a freefall since 1997. Whatever gains in the economy that has been accrued from consumer spending has mainly been in the housing sector and in foreign imports. Despite record consumption by consumers, the main beneficiary of that consumption binge has been with foreign manufacturers as America's traded deficits have ballooned from close to $130 billion in 1997 to today's annual deficit of $500 billion. While the trade deficit has ballooned, debt levels have skyrocketed across all sectors of the American economy.


Black Blade: Definitely! Every portfolio should be anchored with a sound solid foundation with hard assets like Gold and Silver before branching out into less solid and less sound investments like stocks and bonds (Note the nice graph at the top of the page at the link). Considering the events of the last 24 hours all I can say at this point is that we definitely live in "Interesting Times". It appears that war is now more likely than ever and the desperate interest rate cut will have very little if any effect (see Japan).

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4D0DB3AF%2DC090%2D47B9%2D8CC7%2D1145805C3B7E%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

John Hathaway, manager of gold fund Tocqueville Asset Management (TGLDX): "The worst bear market in 25 years, corporate scandals, accounting heresy and all too evident geopolitical risks have caused only a modest rise in the gold price. This sort of skepticism is reassuring and supports our expectation that significantly higher gold prices lie ahead. The core safety nets that have absorbed the tide of risk-averse capital instead of gold are government bonds, real estate mortgages and credit derivatives. Pay careful attention to yield spreads, the share prices of money-center banks, particularly large derivative players such as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), the trade-weighted dollar index, the share prices of (FNM) Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the share prices of mortgage insurers ... and the shape of the yield curve."

Robert Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report: "I continue to be amazed at the lack of conviction that some have about where we stand in the current gold cycle. Despite closing in on the third year in a row with gold having advanced, while virtually everything else has declined, there exists a tentativeness that does not lend itself to the reflexive embrace of lower prices. Two decades of decline will understandably lead to such a loss of confidence, and it's clear that only much higher gold prices will make certain buyers of today's uncertain fence-sitters."


Black Blade: Yep, today I was talking with a couple of people at the gym about gold. They asked about the potential of gold now that rates have been cut to 44-year lows and the change in politics toward a more restrictive authoritarian government. I have to admit that it is an interesting question, but the price of gold should rise substantially from here. The average price of gold since the $875 an ounce spike during exceptional circumstances has been between $380 to $420 an ounce. With the economy deteriorating rapidly and more exceptional events on the horizon (war and higher energy costs anyone?) the price of gold is horrendously undervalued. The price should be well north of the upper range of $420 an ounce � maybe $600+ an ounce for starters. Obviously we have a lot of upward potential for the price of gold.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=808&ncid=808&e=13&u=/dowjones/20021106/bs_dowjones/200211060331000243
Snippit:

The regulatory investigation of IPO "laddering" is reaching a peak, Wednesday's Wall Street Journal reported. The enforcement staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission has notified Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) that it has recommended filing civil securities- fraud and market-manipulation charges against the securities firm for allegedly steering hot IPOs to investors who signaled plans to buy additional shares, people familiar with the matter say. The SEC also has notified the securities unit of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. that it could face similar civil charges in the agency's probe of laddering, in which investors who indicated they planned to buy more shares at higher prices after trading began were allegedly able to get more shares of initial public offerings, the people say.


Black Blade: So I wonder how much of a token fine they will end up paying � another slap on the wrist I bet. If this were a case against those who are not "connected" or have inside influence you can bet the dogs would be set loose. I don't expect any significant punishment to be meted out here. Nothing a well placed campaign contribution won't fix.

Yes Ari, we should make allowances for things such as potential public backlashes, etc. and yes we need to take these things into consideration, and I'm glad you agree.

As far as falling pianos, again I agree, but there is somewhat of a difference between a piano falling and Southern California dropping into the sea, which is a closer description (in MY opinion) to the end game in paper as you see it coming.

And for a physical only guy, your defense of the CB's and leasing has me just a bit baffled. You find no problem with the CB's leasing their physical out and still recording it as if it were still in the vaults? Come on. Personally I'd be happy if they'd just footnote their leased assets.

And disagreeing with you is the equivalent of public castration? Next time capitalize THE nuances instead of the ONLY and more will get your message.

And as far as other investments and income? How about a little silver and some A-hole in the goround gold stocks to round out the disaster insurance. Silver wasn't confiscated by the government in 33, doesn't have a nuesmatic premium as does pre 33 coins (just in case we repeat the past) and as one of our poster so stated, the dividends on some good gold stocks were pretty good during the 30's. And besides, PM demand in all forms pushes the price for all UP.

Sorry that you appear to take diversified views personal, but I personally won't put all my eggs into the physical gold only basket at the expense of other good PM investments, cause my crystal ball just doesn't seem to be quite as clear as yours.

Just one beancounter's minor disagreements and opinion.

And nothing personal. . . .

Pizz

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcih_hVwV2FpdCBm
Snippit:

New York, Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Mace Blicksilver, a hedge fund manager, is among those anticipating the U.S. introduction of futures on individual stocks. He expects the contracts to make it faster and less expensive to profit from falling share prices.``They'll be much easier to handle'' than sales of borrowed shares and option trades, said Blicksilver, a managing director of Marblehead Asset Management in New York. ``I am counting the days until I can use single-stock futures.'' He doesn't have much longer to wait. OneChicago, a joint venture of Chicago's futures and options exchanges, and Nasdaq Liffe Markets, a venture of the Nasdaq Stock Market and Europe's second-largest futures and options exchange, will introduce the contracts on Friday. Nasdaq Liffe's futures received their final approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. Until now, stock futures have been available in the U.S. only for indexes, such as the Standard & Poor's 500.

Black Blade: Whaddya know, another game table opening up at the casino.

$$$$333.70$$$$
Just like the late 60's the same cartel is managing the price, the same banks (some names have been changed or merged)are in trouble, the same countries are going broke or in trouble, and the same Fed, BIS, and IMF are trying to but the mess back together, fix the problem they helped create. If they fix the problem like the last time (we can only hope),I have little doubt the pundits that talk > $1000 gold will be right, and as many have said here before, the late comers, still licking their wounds from the dot com era will be lining up to buy gold at their local bank or coin dealer.

GC2Z Gold Contract Price Settlement CONTEST !!SIXTH UPDATE as of 22:50 Denver time 11/06/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
(looks as if Sir Frosty is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be some "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)

Hmmm. Maybe I'm still too naive but my mind twitched when I read of yet another casino game they've created! Now, my head is shaking in resigned, bewildered sadness. Incredible. I guess that since the 401k-ers aren't actively playing the SM, only the gambler/speculator psyches are left and the casino has to create some new games to interest them (and relieve them of their fiat).

"Bush's hand has been strengthened to pursue his economic
and foreign policies now" ---

With apologies to Blackjack for useing the last part of his 941 post. It's a sad day for the world that this egomaniac jackass has been given almost total control.Looking back is
a good indicator for what lies ahead from this most crooked of administrations -only now in SPADES! A lot of Americans seem to have blinkers on & see the Prez as Royalty - never to be denigrated especially in public & taboo for an outsider. Well I want to call a spade a spade & if it's any consolation to the die hard patriots,the Australian prime minister is an A$$hole & his ministers are a bunch of *ickheads! Now I feel better!

Woah Dude........like, do you mean things would be better off back in the "good old days" of Clinton?

Sorry if this is a little off subject (Gold).

Nuff sed.....goin to bed.

Royalty? Not to be derided publicy? I'll drop a name for ya,
NIXON. But, on the other hand, I can't believe how much Clinton got away with. If GW is an egomaniac, hopefully there will be some cooler Republican heads prevailing in future sessions.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/champeau110802.htmlHi TEX - -No I don't think we/you would be better off back in the "good old days" of Clinton. I was however hoping that the "power" would not be lop-sided as it is now.

I "stole" the heading for this post from an article by that name at another site.Follow the link it's very well worth the read.

SNIPS-
The biggest cartel of all - Government

Of course none of the world's cartels could exist without the one cartel that has the "monopoly on force", GOVERNMENT.

By government cartel I obviously mean the US and its satellite organizations, United Nations, World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, etc., with the backing of the US Court system and the military.

Just as the credit bubble is the foundation for all the other bubbles in the global financial system, government, especially the US Imperial government, is the foundation for all of the world's cartels.

The cartels operate with the blessing of the government in a symbiotic relationship. The government acts as the "enforcer" while the cartel members share the spoils with the government.
-------------------
"Let's do away with the modern day aristocracy. We need to do away with the power that the current group of cartels has and get back to a free society and free markets. The only way to do that is to weaken the strongest of the cartels.

In the US the way to do this is to stop voting for Democrats and Republicans.

GET RID OF THE GOVERNMENT CARTEL. LET'S TRY FREEDOM"

Just for fun, I performed a little present worth analysis to determine the compounded interest rate between Gold priced at $35/oz in 1969 and gold at $320/oz in 2002. It works out to an annual compounded interest rate for n = 33 years at approximately 6.93%. Now, if the historical average PE ratio for the S&P 500 works out to be about 13.5, the reciprocal of that average ratio represents an average annual equity return of approximately 7.41%.

So lets see, if I bought some gold in 1969 and buried it in my back yard for 33 years, I would have made just about as much if I played the stock market for 33 years. But there's one big glaring difference though. In order to realize a 7.41% annual return in equities, I would need to diligently learn about, apply, and focus intensely on, things like: Technical analysis, geo-political conditions, accounting practices, monetary policy, fiscal policy, market dynamics, corporate dynamics, CEO integrity, quarterly reports, trade imbalances, credit quality, etc, etc, etc. Day after day after day after day.

You know, a great way to create a keen sense of focus in rats is to throw one into a deep glass container and fill it half way up with water.

As far as I'm concerned, our fiat dollar, especially the one created in 1971, has created a populous of keenly focused rats�..er, I mean investors. After 31 years, its truly impressive how much effort they expend to keep their heads above water and how quickly they can react to the slightest perceived change in surface conditions.

Unfortunately, many physical gold advocates, even though they don't need to worry about drowning themselves, have had to jump in that glass container as well - primarily out of their social need to help those who are slowly drowning. They had to jump in because the only way to catch what's left of a drowning persons attention span is to engage them from within their own paradigm. Maybe, just maybe, or so the gold advocates� hopes go, these highly focused, narrow minded investors have a small piece of mindspace left where they can still be receptive to the idea that life is better on dry land. That they can still hear that it's not only better because you can quit worrying about drowning, it's better because you're free to explore an endless variety of new paradigms - including those lofty realms of love, beauty and truth. Heck, they might even find enough time to start wondering about radical concepts like meaning and purpose. And if that happens, well, don't dwell on the past, everyone has regrets. Philosophically speaking, we all have to tread water for a time before we can find our own way out of the glass jar.

Well, so much for utopia. The truth is, there are very few gold advocates in the water for the right reasons, and far too many people drowning for those advocates to effect any real sea change. In other word's: "you can't be told about the matrix, you've got to see it for yourself" and their just aren't enough red (gold) pills to go around.

Back to the subject at hand. In 1969 the water depth was not quite over our heads and for most, the distinction between gold and dollars was not a significant one. Today, in 2002, we are just about exhausted, death is near, and the idea that our nation can reaffirm the precepts necessary to "insure domestic tranquility" exists only within that most basic of human traits � hope.

Your POG entry was the FIRST to be "BRACKETED" !!! <;-($$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735
---
MUST be a good number!
<;-)

"for a physical only guy, your defense of the CB's and leasing has me just a bit baffled." ---Pizz 88948

Excellent! Your own thought will be the only thing that results in anything meaningful outta this whole deal.

Sort it out until the baffling aspect fades.

(I assure you, if I could just hand it to you I would. It's been handed to me, I took it, and likewise I've passed it round. Done it here, and this is where we are -- evidence that everyone can't be so easily reached no matter how diligent the try.)

My best --- Ari

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3415078.htmlBanks already are struggling with an increased level of bad debts, so continued weakness in the economy won't help on that front. And with deposit rates already near a floor, the latest cut in rates poses the threat that some banks will simply have to live with a smaller average margin between the rates at which they borrow money and the rates at which they can lend it.

Bank analyst Jon Arfstrom at RBC Capital Markets agreed with Sohn that the Fed "sent a message that it has stepped on the gas. That 50-basis-point cut . . . sends the message that maybe the Fed sees something that the market does not see, such as [potential] loan quality issues," Arfstrom said.

"Generally, bank stocks rally when the Fed cuts rates. But we are at a point in time where short-term rates are so low that banks don't have the ability to lower deposit costs any further. And their [loan] asset yields are certainly going to come down," he added. "So there may be some near-term hiccup in the margins, but certainly over time it should benefit some borrowers -- which ultimately should benefit some of the banks."

Other analysts said that community banks will be hurt by the Fed's action more than the larger banks because they rely heavily on deposits to fund their loans, and any reduction in rates would only further discourage people from putting cash in the bank. Larger banks typically draw on a range of sources for their funds.

Many banks simply can't cut their deposit rates any further, said analyst John O'Connor with Fort Washington Investment Advisors.

"Banks are only paying 1 percent or less on all deposit accounts. Pretty soon you will have to pay them to hold your money," joked O'Connor. While some borrowers will benefit, retirees and others who rely on interest income will suffer further from the interest cut, he added.
______________
This sounds like the problem in Japan. Bad loans at banks.
MM interest rates so low its below the low inflation rate.
It looks like an act of desperation by the Fed. They don't want to
do what Japan did, lower interest rates slowly in the face of
deflation. The Fed decided to be more aggressive but it looks
like we are drifting into a Japan style deflation.
Downunder no apology needed, you can repost anything.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7B2875D3F0-EF90-4409-9D4B-AC984B748EAD%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahooSAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The stock market may have reacted with a nifty rally in the wake of the Fed rate cut Wednesday afternoon, but there was clearly no joy in cyberspace.

"Greenspan's Fed is obviously now in white-knuckle terror mode," posted Yahoo's MRRE1999: "After aiding and abetting massive debt accumulation and hyper-inflated asset bubbles in stocks and housing they now face the return swing of the pendulum, deflation and depression. There have never been so many incompetents in high places, at a critical time in our history, as there is now."

Even before the market swooned in the extended session, virtual investors were convinced that the short-term uptick wouldn't hold.

Take AMDCleanKilled who pretty much called the reversal: "Expect the market to digest the REAL FACT that interest rates were cut so much because the economy is virtually dead and then the market will tank. I think this rally is about over."

Well then, what do we do about it?

Yoddle-ay-he-hoo! Wcrimi chimed in with his thoughts: "The Fed is pretty much giving away money now in order to prop up Wall St, the banking system, and the existing excesses - no matter how much long term damage he does to the country. It's getting to the point where there are simply no options that offer appropriate risk adjusted returns.

"It's time to consider moving some percentage of your investment portfolio to Switzerland. Greenjeans is a madman!"

And 3rdHerd didn't exactly wax liberal with his solution: "I suspected they would lower that much as they just want to keep this puppy propped up until we can hit Iraq. Kinda reminds me of trying to skip over a river jumping from the back of one alligator to the next, hoping we don't misstep. Next stop Iraq, to expand our power base and control oil. What other alternatives do we have?"

Bottom line: Greenspan's just riding the white horse, according to SuAmigo: "Mr. Fed doesn't seem to grasp that no matter how low the funds rate, firms will not invest into excess capacity, will not invest into a declining rate of profit. The funds rate is mediated by the real market, by real private financial institutions, that cutting this rate is no more beneficial to the real economy than another shot of heroin for a dying addict."
______________
Hey, sounds like this board! LOL
Risk adjusted return in PMs.

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/m/msft.htmlThe above link takes you to Yahoo page on the insider sales
at MSFT corp. Sale after sale. No buying. Its an incredible list.

You would think the media might mention these sales.
Looks like massive cashing out. Doesn't look like the
insiders at MSFT are bullish on the market.

http://www.wired.com/news/privacy/0,1848,56234,00.htmlGoing to have to keep tabs as the Bushies gain reign as in total control.

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/021106/26/1xef0.htmlTraders said the middle class was flocking back to gold as the preferred investment option with other options losing sheen.

Falling interest rate on deposits and poor stock market returns have turned Bengalis to gold. "Dhanteras acted as a trigger to utilise liquid cash for buying gold," they pointed out.

Dey said many of the buyers were first timers. "Over 40 per cent of them were new customers from all walks of life. I have never seen people queuing up with pockets full of cash to buy gold," Dey noted.

Gold coins were the normal purchase during Dhanteras but this year Bengalis rushes to buy gold jewellery. The price of standard 10 grams gold ruling at Rs 5100 did not deter purchases.

In response, shops rushed to offer freebies and discounts over the weekend and extended hours of trading. Heavy discounts were offered on jewellery making charges. Others offered free snacks to waiting customers.

Lucky draws and free mehendi applications sessions were advertised in Bengali newspapers. However, most shops were caught off-guard by the sudden rush.
_____________
"Falling interest rate on deposits and poor stock market returns"
Its that way in most of the world, join the club.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021107/0318000244_3.htmlTOKYO -- NTT DoCoMo Inc. said Thursday its group net profit plunged 95% to 4.2 billion yen ($34.5 million) for the six months ended Sept. 30 because of massive valuation losses on investments in foreign telecom firms.
----
The most depressing trend for NTT DoCoMo remains the sluggish demand for its " FOMA" 3G mobile services. Launched last October with the aim of reaching 2.15 million subscribers by March 2003, the service only had a disappointing 140,000 users as of September end. Thursday, DoCoMo significantly slashed its 3G service user goal to 320,000 from its already revised estimate of 1.38 million.
_________________
I wonder what the debt situation is here.
Slash prices , more deflation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2414643.stmSeasonally adjusted joblessness rose 22,000 in October, far more than average market forecasts, and taking the overall figure to 4.119 million.

This is the fourth month in a row that unemployment has lingered above 4 million, a level seen as evidence of the government's failure to create jobs in the past two years.

The news is the latest sign that Germany's economy is not recovering as fast as hoped from the recession at the end of last year.

And since Germany accounts for two-thirds of eurozone economic output, it will increase calls for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates when its governing council meets later on Thursday.
______________
The devaluation race is on!
Cut and Burn

We should have seen it coming (the 50bp cut)- Long bond yield spike thru early-mid October, after basing @ 4.65% was "let go" to 5.15%.
I'm thinking official buying was suspended just long enough to create a plausable "long-cash" spread WITH a rate-cut. There was no wriggle room left in Bonds 4.65-1.75. Now @ 5.05-1.25 a sense of normality should prevail short-term.
This opens the door for a Long Bond retest of 4.5% or even 4.15% going forward - and I'm thinking, a stronger Dollar, until of course, the wheels come off.

The last 11 interest rate decreases didn't buoy the stock market and increased the downward pressure on the dollar. As Einstein said, "the first sign of madness is to do the same thing over and over while each time expecting a different result." I think Einstein was telling Greenie that #12 wouldn't do anything that numbers 1 thru 11 didn't also do.

BlackJack just heard they didn't cut (Bloomberg). So maybe the race ain't on, so to speak.
Got Gold and Euro's?

http://www.geocities.com/zavazingo999/pics/gold.jpgIf we go over $322(+1) (which lokoks very possible at this time), we will reach in a short period of time to $338 level..

http://www.geocities.com/zavazingo999/pics/index.htmlSorry other link was broken

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The market futures indices indicate a sharply lower open on Wall Street. Petroleum prices are higher on anticipation of looming war between the US and Iraq now that the Prez has a free hand. The price of Gold is higher on rock bottom interest rates as a stake has been driven through the heart of forward selling by vampire Gold producers and is now finally a dead issue. The USD is flat and just wallowing about looking for direction. Looks like an "entertaining" day is on tap when Wall Street opens for business.

- Black Blade

Buying gold now at 320 is exactly like buying gold then at 35. The same perception change is in the works. Wealth is being redefined. We all need a reference point when discussing something, and for now, people are using the US dollar as the measuring rod for worth all over the world. It has replaced the gold standard.
When the perception changes that the dollar is not serving this role fairly, then alternatives are considered. People naturally return to gold because of it's historical role as the surest measurement of wealth. As the consititution says, the dollar is just an adjective describing a certain amount of precious metal. Every so often, people delude themselves into thinking they are gods and can control everything. This virtual reality world of delusion always ends when it is realized that just because you make up some game that fools everyone for a while doesn't mean you have changed the laws of nature, or physics. The world needs ANOTHER way of measuring wealth and cost and value. When people stop defining things in terms of dollars and begin using something like grams of gold, then we will have an economic system that is not subject to these games and manipulations.

Yes Sir GW, one decimel will do fine. thank you.

Also BoE no change at 4% - Seems Alan is alone this time around... cb2

It looks as if we would drop into one of the worst depressions in Germany. 3.75% vs. 1.25% vs. 0%

Japan and Europe will fall into deflation, while the U.S. will bail out via low US$.

The motivation behind the non-lowering could be that leading European politicians demanded lower interest rates. Of course the "independent" ECB couldn't lower as it would have made them look like the puppets of politics.

regards
Kojak

Thanks for your warm welcome. I have been lurking for some time, content in reading the words of wisdom within. Couldn't resist joining the contest though. Your question #7 is interesting. The various submissions have created a new sense of perspective. Sir Bound Spirit's figures, in conjunction with Sir Robotguy's suggested peek at BigCharts DJIA over the same period of time is interesting. I'm putting to sea tomorrow to join my fine feathered friends for 5 weeks & don't have time to say more. I will look forward to reviewing events here upon my return. Keep up the good work here everyone in clarifying the collective consciousness! I am sure many Hobbits appreciate the time & effort the Elders put into keeping us informed...

Cheers!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/financial_sia_survey_1.htmlReuters
Investor confidence in Wall Street at 8-year low
Thursday November 7, 10:27 am ET


BOCA RATON, Fla., Nov 7 (Reuters) - Hit by corporate scandals and the stock market decline, investors' opinion of Wall Street and brokers has fallen to its lowest level in eight years, according to a survey released on Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT


At the top of the list of investor concerns is losing money in the stock market and corporate dishonesty, the Securities Industry Association's annual investor survey, conducted by Harris Interactive, found.

As a result, 49 percent of survey respondents said they were less willing to take risks to achieve potentially higher investment gains than they were 12 months ago. The survey polled 1,500 investors between Aug. 22 and Sept. 22.

"Americans' opinions of the capital markets have been tested," Allen Morgan Jr., SIA chairman and chairman of Morgan Keegan & Co. Inc., said in a statement. "Our credibility and integrity are being questioned."

Of those polled, 55 percent said they have a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" opinion of the securities industry, down from 62 percent in 2001 and 63 percent in 2000. "Very favorable" ratings fell to 9 percent from 22 percent in 2001.

The industry's reluctance to punish wrongdoers was cited by 68 percent of those surveyed as one of the big problems, up from 41 percent in 2001.

Greed was cited as a big problem by 66 percent, up from 52 percent in 2001 and 49 percent in 2000.

Declining confidence is a serious issue for Wall Street, which has seen profits fall amid the market decline.

Among investors who have brokers, only one in five said he were "extremely" or "very" satisfied with the performance of his investments held with the broker. That is about half the level of 2001 and less than one-third the level of 2000.

"We're encouraging brokers to be more in contact with their customers," said Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MWD - News) John Schaefer, who runs the firm's brokerage unit.

Looking ahead, 29 percent of the respondents believe 2003 will be a "very good" or "good" year for investing, similar to 2001's results.

Comment;
55% still think favorably of the securities industry. Bear market will bottom out when this percentage goes under 20%.
Get thee some precious metals and watch the fireworks.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcnzShXeQnJhemls``The pension system is a bomb ready to explode,'' said Raul Velloso, a self-employed economist in Brasilia who specializes in public finances. ``The government is forced to implement giant spending cuts just to cover the pension deficit.''

This year, Brazil's retirement program for civil servants will generate three quarters of the social security system's 70.1 billion reais shortfall. The deficit created by government retirees, which is equivalent to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product, rises by 0.3 percent of GDP each year, economists said.

`Heart of Crisis'

``This is the heart of the Brazilian crisis,'' said Mailson da Nobrega, a former finance minister. ``With such a deficit, the government cannot reduce the tax burden and make the economy grow.''

Pensions for former private and state employees together account for 41 percent of government expenditure and salaries a further 39 percent. That leaves 20 percent to fund services such as education, health and aid to the poor -- Lula's priorities.

Investor concerns that Lula, a former union leader, won't cut spending enough to avert a debt default have caused Brazil's currency to drop 37 percent this year, to about 3.7 reais per dollar. The benchmark 8 percent bond that matures in 2014 fell 27 percent to about 56 cents on the dollar.
_______________
@Mas : ECB will cut soon. Unless you think the European economy
doesn't need it. Do you think the European economy will look
strong in the next couple weeks? I think ECB will cut before the
end of the year.

"Dow stock J.P. Morgan (JPM: news, chart, profile) fell over 4 percent after sliding as much as 9.3 percent early in the session amid speculation about possible losses in its derivatives operations. The stock came off its lows after a J.P. Morgan spokesperson called the talk "false and irresponsible." Fellow Dow components American Express and Citigroup rose 2.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively."

The original article expressively states JPM's gold derivative (dhort) positions. False and irresponsible rumours have been proven correct before, is it Argentina, Enron, World Com et al. JPM's latest Quarter losses and write-offs started as rumours too - and were officially denied until they had to show their true colors.

Where there's smoke there surely is some fire. Considering a derivative book total of 25 Trillion US$ - 2 and 1/2 times the US annual total GDP! ... and throw in bad debts, downgrading of their own and top it off with some pending lawsuits by and against some insurance co's unwilling to pay up to the Enron scham, you'ce got a concoction of which Harry Potter would be proud of.

The too big to fail may prove too big to bail - Got Gold? cb2

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of TMP Worldwide Inc.TMPW.O , parent of online job site Monster.com, fell sharply on Thursday after it reported weak third-quarter earnings and slashed its fourth-quarter view, citing the sluggish economy that has dampened the job-search market.

Shares of TMP, also a leading executive search service firm and one of the world's largest Yellow Pages advertising agencies, fell $3.17, or about 20 percent, to $12.63 in morning trade, making it the biggest percentage loser on the Nasdaq.

TMP late on Wednesday said its third-quarter earnings fell by close to half due to the persistent slump in the labor market, and warned of a similarly dismal fourth quarter.

On a conference call early on Thursday, TMP Chairman and Chief Executive Andrew McKelvey said "job creation is virtually at a standstill with little to no growth," with hiring budgets lagging the overall economy as firms wait to see if higher payroll expense is warranted.

"These challenging market conditions have had and continue to have negative effects on our top-line results," he said.

The company, which last month said it would spin off two lagging units, expects to break even in the fourth quarter, far below Thomson First Call's consensus earnings estimate of 14 cents per share. It was the third consecutive quarter that TMP warned of profits below expectations.

U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Analyst Brett Manderfeld on Thursday cut his rating on TMP Worldwide to "underperform" from "outperform," citing the disappointing financial and "continued nonexistent demand" from the hiring markets.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse090902.htmlBack when gold was $35 per oz. a home cost $10,000, a car $2,000, and the average hourly wage was $1.50 per hour. Inflation has grown all prices X10.

The average home today is $100,000+, a car $20,000+ and the average wage is $15.00+ per hour, it's all times ten.

Gold is really a true value using the X10 equation. The equation indicates a POG @ $350, yet we can buy it at the discounted price of $315 - $325. That is until the forces of inflation/deflation and/or fear of systemic economic failure forces capitulation resulting in safe haven demand. When the financial system capitulates, gold will prove the only safe "port of call" as paper burns, X20 will only be a beginning......

Don't wait till the ship leaves port!

BB
(NIA)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B31E6A5C7%2DF042%2D4632%2DAAB4%2D067E793F5225%7D&siteid=mktw"Unemployment will be a vicious problem," Russell said. "Before next year is out, we'll see another 20 percent drop in the dollar. China is at economic war with the West. I wouldn't be surprised if it backs (its currency) with gold."

As for specific recommendations, he pointed to Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest gold producer, as the "bellwether" investment in troubled fiscal times. Russell said the 18 gold mining stocks he follows demonstrated strong accumulation this week as measured by advancing prices on rising volume.

"There is going to be tremendous resistance to the idea of gold from the people who produce the junk paper. I'm talking about the Federal Reserve, of course," said Russell, eliciting applause. "The central banks want you to believe gold is junk and their paper is not. Gold has been in a bear market for 20 years. To many, it is only something you fill your teeth with."

On Thursday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), the nation's second largest bank, denied speculation it was suffering from large losses on gold-linked derivatives. Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have dangerous exposure to gold derivatives. "It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of gold.

Murphy said central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running about 14,000 tons. "Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you have a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he said. See: Morgan weakest among financial stocks.

What do ordinary folks say about all this? "At some point," said Paul Collins, a Monmouth Beach, N.J., investor, "people are going to lose confidence in everything but gold."

<;-)
--
AND you take care there Sir Albatros !!! FLY HIGH !!!
"Chok Dee"

LOTS of yelling and screaming in the Gold Pit today !
A few tears too !!
<;-)
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!

Have I always been a naysayer/perma bear? Of course not! I love technology, and advancements in technology. Exciting things happen, creative and useful products are developed, and the thought of war is practically non-existant during times when the economy works like a well oiled machine. Manufacturing is my gig, I get a strong sense of when the market is about to take off through job opportunities and the wage offer, word of mouth from various industries on their production and average working week hours etc. I love it when the economy is running well, and production lines can't run fast enough. I would like to consider myself a somewhat capable individual with a little sense of surroundings. I am not the close-minded type individual that goldbugs are often dubbed. Tunnel visioned, doomsday saying, perma bear blah blah blah. Why is such a precious metal surrounded by such negativity? Gold is a magnificent industrial material, it poses no toxic threats, has been used for jewellery and trade for eons,.. not to mention it's nice to look at, and it doesn't tarnish.
I know there are various reasons why there is so much negativity surrounding gold, we've all discussed them before, and the term bre-x still hasn't faded into history.

I'm just getting sick of it all I guess. I hate when people do what other people do just because, trends, lemmings, it's all crap. Individuality is lost in our society, perhaps it's a result of subliminal societal programming.

Despite being told many times by many individuals to "cut my hair", this professional individual goldbug is a long hair. I am not rebelling against society, or trying to change the world, I simply like my hair long, and I believe as individuals we should do the things we like (providing you don't cause harm to others) and not follow the trodden path of sheep. I am not an overly eccentric individual, but I am an individual.

For those of you who speak publicly against goldbugs perhaps you should get to know one before you begin appending labels.

BAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

Thank-you.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThe dollar index has broken below 105.

The perpetual US trade deficit or in other words, more and more printed dollar-confetti, sended around the world, in exchange for real goods and services...shall be exchanged for another currency > the euro !? The dollar/euro exchange rate is telling us that this is happening.
The euro and Gold, allies/budies, are giving the dollar-holders the opportunity to leave the sinking ship. That's what a currency war is all about !
A low POG is an invitation to chose for Gold as dollar-alternative. At one particular moment, this very cheap alternative will become very expensive and so will the euro vis � vis the US$, regardless of economic realities.
Where Euroland's economic ambitions are very different of nature than the dollar's ones.

After a period of massive dollar-debt-repudiation and bankruptcies, there will only be HYPERINFLATION !

WOWSERS Sir Belgian -- Could you not have added some SUGAR to that ? J6P is still smelling the ROSES !! AND, TRUE FACTS like those may not be understood by all the Sheeple at this point in time !
BUT THANKS !
<;-)

@ Blackjack - Only play the game in North-Central Nevada - places like Winnemucca (where the Q.M. sailed the Humboldt) or Lovelock, or even Elko ... made and lost fortunes there, though mostly on gold explorers and will make it back in specie...not gam(bl)ing!
BTW - the annual deficit between new production (2.500t)and scrap (5-600t) and new demand is estimated to be somewhere between 500 to 1.500t for the last few years.

For how long can the CB's stand ready to sell their diminishing gold piles, Sir Allan? The failure of the historical gold pools have, again historically led to the greatest gold booms - ever. ... The jig is up, is it?


NEW YORK -- J.P. Morgan Chase shares came under selling
pressure Thursday, despite a denial by the nation's second-largest bank that it had suffered large losses on gold derivatives.

"The rumors circulating today are false and
irresponsible," a J.P. Morgan Chase spokesman said.

J.P. Morgan Chase's shares recently traded at $20.86,
down $1.20, for a drop of 5.4 percent.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said
the derivatives loss talk made the rounds before the
opening of trading, but he generally dismissed them,
noting that the entire financial sector was struggling
Thursday and that the cloud of a civil lawsuit was also
hanging over the Dow Jones Industrials component.

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission had notified Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase that it recommended filing civil
securities-fraud charges against the two firms over the
way they allocated IPO shares.

Against this backdrop, the Philadelphia Bank Index shed
1.8 percent. The Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index also retreated to the tune of 1.8 percent.

Morgan gold rumor rides again

Rumors of derivatives losses at J.P. Morgan Chase have sporadically appeared in the market over the last 18 months, particularly with respect to gold.

Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy,
attending the New Orleans Investment Conference Wednesday,
said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have potentially dangerous exposure to gold derivatives.

"It is only a matter of time before they explode and
the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work
together to depress the price of the precious metal.

Murphy said central banks' gold loans and swaps amount
to about 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons, and
a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running
at about 14,000 tons.

"Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and
you a gold price explosion that is just waiting to
happen," he asserted.

U.S. banks and their customers continued to pour money
into derivatives in the second quarter, as the total
value of the specialized contracts passed $50 trillion.

The second-quarter data are the most recent available
from the Comptroller of the Currency, which is
responsible for monitoring derivatives.

The banks with the largest derivative positions were
J.P. Morgan Chase, with $25.9 trillion, up from $23.5
trillion in the first quarter; Bank of America, with $10.3 trillion, compared to $9.8 trillion last quarter; and
Citibank, the Citigroup subsidiary with $7.4 trillion,
versus $6.7 trillion in the first quarter.

Equity, commodity, and other contracts jumped $85
billion, to $1.1 trillion during the second quarter.

Bank of America's shares lost $1.69, or 2.4 percent, to
$68.40, while Citigroup dropped 79 cents to $37.07.

-END- and amen -cb2

Gandalf the White msg#: 88990What sugar? I can't seem to find any. Besides it's bad for the health.

The GC2Z POG Settlement Guessing CONTEST !!SEVENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 11:10 Denver time 11/07/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - 0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - 0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3

(looks as if Sir Basil is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 ?*? nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be some "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlMarie (ext.106) can offer excellent advice and assistance on these items, and help keep you out of the crowded stores this holiday season!

I ran across a cool, two foot tall silver replica of the Statue of Liberty (supposedly one of one hundred). It is one thousand ounces of .999 silver. Does anyone know the story on it?

MOVERMEG

Hey, CoBra, do you have any idea where the JPM - gold derivatives "news" story was initiated? Since it's been around for so long, I've been wondering who gave the signal to put it in the media. Do you think it came from a reporter covering the New Orleans Conference?

The big boys couldn't be removing support from JPM (after making sure their personal profits/wealth were covered) and letting it tank, could they?

Interesting. JPM just seems to have garnered too much negativity on too many fronts for them to do a big bail out.

I say, they can't write TV shows more entertaining than this! Unfortunately, this isn't fantasy, it's reality that affects the world. Sigh.

You stated,
"After a period of massive dollar-debt-repudiation and bankruptcies, there will be HYPERINFLATION."

I tend to agree and dug through my papers to find an old article by White about the return of all those exported dollars. I believe it's call "Return of Bigfloat" and I also think it's here, perhaps in the Guilded Archives.

May I ask for your opinion or guess on a time frame? I see price inflation already in some tangible sectors and still some deflation in others, mostly paper holdings but, with yesterday's Fed. rate cut a done deal, how long do you think before foreign held U.S. dollars start returning to their birthland? Will these dollars be exchanged among non-U.S. holders still and remain uncollected debt or will the world try to unload them if the currency exchange rate of the U.S.$ starts dropping severely?? Mostly, any opinion to how long such a process might take?
Thanks
Rich

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlPhew....made it through to the end of todays most excellent and thorough DMR!

Buying gold today is like buying gold at 35 per ounce in the late 1960's in that there is great potential for advancement in price. The price has been too low too long. Inflationary pressures have been building and have not yet been released or realized. Also, the majority of the public are unaware of the potential. Therefore it is much the same. We are presently in the very early stages of a long-term bull market in gold, and this one, like the previous one, is recognized only by a few. That's us, fellows. In coming years we will look back on this and it is likely that we will have real reason to congratulate ourselves and each other. I chose 321.40, instead of say, 327.10, because I think a gradual move upward is both more reasonable to expect, and more indicative of strength, volatility being an indicator not of value but of contoversy. Also, if I say that it can't possibly go to 327.10 by Tuesday, for some reason I feel that it will be more likely to do so.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html

Gold Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for a while.

While the Administration's Treasury Department has fallen mum on the issue, the latest target rate cut (to 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with an institution-saving discount rate at 0.75%!) tells the score loud and clear. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world -- these are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

I might be alone in this, but one thing I would like to see is a clear description of what is meant when it is said that the price of gold 'was fixed' at some price.

Help! I tried finding the Blademan's daily report by clicking on the Daily Market Report, the Afternoon Gold Report and Waverider's posted link. All three took me to the November 5th report.
It's like the old Clue game where the corner rooms had a secret passage to the opposite corner room only I can't find the right passage to today.
I remember an old Kingston Trio song about a man trying to get a train to the town of Morrow but the ticket man tells him he's too late,
"If you had gone to Morrow yesterday
now, don't you see.
You could have gone to Morrow
and been back today at 3.
Where's the secret passage?
Rich

Like cream rising to the top, gold is moving higher in after hours. Notice that the USD sank below the critical 105 support level. We fall below 104.87 and it could get "interesting". I see that Silver is pulling right along with gold as well. There was a rumor floating about earlier today that due to lowered gold and base metal production, the by-product Silver stocks are depleting at a more rapid rate than anticipated. Some pointed to the seemingly large amount of Silver in storage at the COMEX, however, almost all that is registered - in other words claimed and "untouchable". Meanwhile, it appears that physical off take for Gold has actually been increasing in parts of Central Asia even after the all important Diwali Festival. But I covered that in the DMR. The outlook for PMs have dramatically improved over the last 48 hours and it appears that there may be no turning back. The fundamentals for the equities and bond markets are viewed as "grim" at best. Hang onto your undershorts because it looks like we may be in for a sustained rise in PMs.

- Black Blade

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/markets_forex_dollar_1.htmlNEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Slowing economic growth, one-party government, lending rates at four decade lows. If you ask currency market experts, the opposing strands make a knot of Gordian difficulty that threatens to bind the dollar.

"What you've got is monetary and fiscal policy both in a very stimulative mode," said Lara Rhame, U.S. economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

The dollar's predicament was borne out even further on Thursday, when the European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rates unchanged -- emphasizing a hefty interest-rate differential.

Now that the differential has widened anew, Garvey says a debate is currently underway that questions whether the ECB is the more prudent central bank -- however parochial its emphasis on inflation may seem to some.

"Back in the start of the easing cycle, a lot of people argued that the Fed was being more proactive and the dollar rallied," he said. "Now you're seeing the opposite, as people are thinking the ECB has run the more prudent, responsible policy for the last several years."

-------(full article at url)------

If the U.S. dollar slips from its throne as international king of reserves, the fall could be swift and hard and its purchasing power will vanish in the blink of an eye.

Protect your wealth through gold ownership.

R.

Courtesy of Roger Conrad (Utility Forecaster):

With the United Nations about to give the U.S. the ability to act alone against Iraq, there's no question that it's just a matter of time before Saddam Hussein is removed from power. The REAL question is how will Saddam's reaction to his impending destruction impact world energy prices? Saddam will do ANYTHING to prevent the U.S. from getting not only Iraq's oil, but the oil OF THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST as well! If he contaminates the oil fields of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar with "dirty" bombs, crude prices will SKYROCKET to $100 a barrel and stay there, triggering economic chaos. There simply WON'T be enough energy to go around!

Black Blade: Possible scenario but just the act of war alone will kick energy costs higher and that is exactly what pushed the global economy into recession as with every postwar recession. Now geopolitical tensions have again come to the forefront with the recent US elections and the UN resolution vote expected to easily pass. Note that Roger Conrad recently was interviewed on Jim Puplava's radio program. He and Stephen Leeb (Personal Finance Newsletter) have co-authored several articles on the looming energy crisis, and Leeb is somewhat of a closet goldbug too. Conrad may be a bit alarmist I think, but then you just never know. There are a lot of potential economic landmines about.

Couldn't say it any better than Sir Belgian's post 88989. Thank you.

Here's the golden key....you need to delete your temporary internet files...go to tools on your toolbar, go to internet options...go to temoporary internet files and click on delete files, then to history and clear history, and okay, okay? For some reason I need to do this every few days on both of my computers - the DMR is the only link which I seem to have trouble with for updating. Cheers,
Waverider

I have occasionally had the same problem. Sometimes hitting the "refresh" button works and if the computer has been on for a long time it may just be that it is easier to logoff - shutdown, then restart and clear off temp files by going into "My Computer" on your desk top, go to file, click properties, then hit clean disk to remove temp files in the cache. Reenter the USAGOLD site and that should work. I haven't had this problem for quite a while, but now I regularly shutdown and clear temp files when I restart. It also helps to speed up surfing the net too. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, maybe Randy has a few ideas as he is the Whizz Kid here when it comes to working with this site.

I see that Waverider does something similar (though a slightly different approach). I am assuming that you are using a PC too. My approach is a little more cumbersome so you may try Waverider's method first. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Hi Rich,

Your browser may be set to not automatically check for newer versions of a page when you revisit a site.

To overcome this, you can force a full refresh of the page with either of the two big name browsers by doing a Shift-Refresh (hold down the shift key while clicking the refresh button on your browser's tool bar).

This will fetch a new page from USAGold's server. Otherwise your browser seems to be reusing what it has in cache.

Let us know if that helps...

Rgds,
miner

Courtesy of Dan Denning (Strategic Investment):

According to U.S.A. Today, the average money market fund is yielding just 1.21%. Money funds closely track the federal funds rate - the one Alan Greenspan has lowered 12 times to its current 40-year low. The article continues, arguing that the latest cut "could force funds with high expenses and low returns out of business. IMoneyNet says 34 have yields of 0.25% or less. They might have to slash expenses to avoid having their share prices fall below $1 - 'breaking the buck,' in industry terms."

- If a fund "breaks the buck", it means that the yield becomes negative...and an investor actually gets back less than a dollar for every dollar he puts in. Last time we checked, this was not the goal of investing. And that's why a fund that breaks the buck is not long for this earth. Jeff Tjornehoj, a research analyst at Lipper, says only once in the 31-year history of money market funds has a fund gone into forced liquidation after "breaking the buck."

- Even so, investors who've seen the yield on their money market funds fall to Japan-like levels can't be too relieved. Forget about making a buck. How about hanging on to the one you have? That's getting harder and harder, what with Chairman Greenspan's determination to stimulate lending and spending by driving down the yield on liquid savings instruments.


Black Blade: I laugh because CNBC's Larry Kudlow is fond of saying that "America is not Japan!". Speaking of CNBC, I have stopped watching this infomercial for a couple of weeks and now tune in to a live web feed (WebFN - yeah television on the internet � go figure), out of Chicago that covers the stock, bond and commodities markets. I'll see how long that lasts. I have done the same with Bloomberg too. At least they don't tout stocks and the "recovering economy" with professional Pied Pipers and Trolls in a day long infomercial. I also log on to a radio station out of Denver in the morning (the Zone) on occasion. I guess what I am saying is that I just needed to "wean" myself from the absurdities of the daily salesmen paraded before the cameras to push stocks in order to generate business for the investment banks and brokerages. I can only stand to look at so many "pigs with bright red lipstick".

- Off to the gym!!!

On the one hand, Yes, the price of gold today is economically similar to the price of gold in the '60's at $35/oz. On the other hand, the ability to own gold is so much easier now, not to mention legal for Americans, that No, there is no comparision. On the other hand, when my good friend Lazar Wolf finally did get married in the early 70's in America, he bought 2 gold rings, each 1oz of gold, to get around the american ownership issue. Actually, thats on his hand. If I were a rich man I could have done the same.

Gold. Its Tradition. ( and cheap at $$$$ 321.0 $$$$ )
Tevye

from your most recent link I lifted the following:

"only once in the 31-year history of money market funds"

I was not aware that MM funds have only been around for 31 years. Is it any coincidence that MM funds came into being the same year that the US defaulted on the Bretton Woods Agreement?

The paper avalanche is indeed upon us.

I would encourage all to do their holiday shopping with the fine folks at CPM and possibly provide your loved ones with a glimmer of financial security in the form of a holiday gift.

Take care.

PA

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/markets_bonds_outlook_1.htmlNEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) -
Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse First Boston said if future economic data come in weak and if the stock market falters and turns lower again, then yields could go lower and the Fed will be compelled to ease again.

"We take issue with (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan when he says that everything is going to be fine," said Konstam. "I'd be concerned about bigger challenges. All you need is bad economic data plus the stock market going down and you've got big problems."

--------(full text at url)-----

Through personal gold ownership these "big problems" can be chased from your own doorstep.

Centennial has what you need. Give them a call.

R.

I've first seen the rumors on Reuters today - then it was picked up across the "globe".

Where does it originate - well, your guess is as good as mine. I feel the horrendous negative quarter together with the SEC probe and law suits in Dec. (insurance vs Enron games and laddering IPO's) and again rising notional derivative risk may have started the rumor mongering again.

... Also the Deutsche Bank bid for JPM a few years ago comes to mind, where Chase came in unexpectedly and carved out a deal in a couple of hours ... all very strange ...

Guess, we'll only know in retrospective for sure, though an entity of barely 25 billion in assets - including any goodwill anyone wants to concede - taking on trillions of derivative bets, while their credit rating is continously downgraded - warrants some questions.

Other rumors are that JPM has been hedonizing (if that's a word) losses of substance - by far outstripping their market cap. and not only their capital - which may see the light of the day.

The governments bank? ... too big to fail - just watch 'em bail ...

Being a rather conservative guy - while taking on some speculative investments - I've bought put options on the stock for some time ... and again!

Hoping to make some $$ in time to convert to more physical - the substance these guys seem to be short in a major way - aye cb2

I see you've already received good guidance to overcome that odd glitch.

Another workaround that may be either easier or more to your liking is to use the new email-to-a-friend feature to have the current report emailed to yourself. I've tried to code that email page in such a manner to avoid these caching problems that a small number of people have had.

I hope it works. You'll find the necessary link at the base of the report text.

R.

Common referrences to the price of gold being "fixed" are almost invariably about the twice-a-day public announcements of the single clearing price for gold arrived at during the 10:30am and 3:00pm gatherings of five bullion banks in London.

In a very loose way, this process in gold is akin to the fed funds market, except that it is a spot price which represents the outcome "price of gold" in the London fix whereas it is an interest rate that represents the outcome "price of dollars" in New York fed funds.

Granted, it's not a perfect parallel, but I have found it to be immensely helpful in conveying this material to others who are more familiar with dollar banking than bullion banking.

R.

Waverider, Black Blade, miner49er, and Randy.
I've printed out your info for future computer tuning and cleaning but, for now, used the easy e-mail solution as my own gray matter computer is also not functioning properly. Easy fix, it needs sleep.
Thank you, all. Good night.
Rich

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=350002My guess is that the war begins before thanksgiving. I am giving thanks that I am now too old to be drafted, because if this things drags out the draft will be needed to find fresh bullet catchers.

PA

Is the situation for gold today the same as what it was in the 1960's? I am not sure it is. Much of the world production came from South Africa then, nowadays production is more widely spread around the globe. Central Banks were generally buyers of gold then but many now seem to want to get rid of the yellow metal. The dollar looks like it is going to take a heavy fall and this is positive for gold as well as the falling worldwide production. I think that the gold price will go up but fear that the "powers that be" will have some horrible scheme to puncture its rise. I hope I am wrong!

My remark was the ECB would cut soon. The reason they did
not was to avoid looking like a knee jerk reaction to our Fed.
Most analysts feel the ECB should have cut and the Fed should
not have.

In the 1930s as the world economy shrank, nations tried to
export their unemployment by raising tariffs. Today raising
tariffs is not politically correct. So now they devalue their
currencies to get an economic advantage.

Japan has openly admitted to selling Yen and buying dollars
to keep the Yen weaker so as to prop up their export economy.

The European economy, is in just as bad a shape as ours if not worse. Germany, a big part of the EU is doing very badly.

The big difference is we have a huge trade deficit while the
EU has a small trade surplus. Germany also has a bad historical
memory from hyperinflation, so they are more cautious with
interest rates.

The ECB will see their exports fall as their currency strengthens.
They will come under great pressure to cut at the next
opportunity. As the Euro strengthens unemployment in Germany
will get worse.

I am not against the Euro. It should strengthen. As interest rates
are cut around the world, thats bullish for Gold and Silver.

The article I posted on the Bengalis buying gold was to point out that zero return in banks and falling stocks have prompted
people even in remote parts of the world to see Gold as a better
place to be rather than MM funds or stock markets.

If you think the ECB will not cut thats fine, I am not opposed
to a strong Euro.

As interest rates are manipulated downwards again, gold benefits indirectly from the nudge to players called to action. Actions that they must take irregardless, just as central banks know the value of accumulating gold and do it openly or covertly as suits their purposes. War or war fears also work to either halt or trigger gold plays that must be taken irregardless. This is the inherent and natural state of the current bull market in gold.

Mr. Bush, the time has come to launch the offensive! We MUST get control of the IRAQ OIL! The economy will not last another year, half year, quarter year without it! EVERYBODY IS BROKE! We need that oil to gain back the advantage we have had for years and are now losing in this currency war. INTEREST RATES TO .5%! Got to have it to get out of this mire we are in! If we stay focused and get on with the business at hand, we can have control in two weeks maximum! We have the weaponry, technology, etc to get the job done now! LETS ROLL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I forgot to mention that Berlin has an unemployment
rate of 17% and rising. Berlin (the city itself) is bankrupt
and asking for around 60 Billion Euros from the central
government as a bailout.

Another development to watch is political extremism.
Desperate times lead to desperate rulers with desperate
solutions. Turkey just elected an Islamist government.
Pakistan may soon have a Taliban supporter elected Prime
Minister. Lula in Brazil and the rest of LA looking to turn
to the hard left.

The people in many parts of the world are hungry and angry and turning against the political establishment that has been adopting US economic models.

Gold and Silver don't need much promoting now. I think the
handwriting on the wall will get easier for the public to see.
PMs are one of the few safe havens in the coming storm.

You are witnesing a high stakes currency game under the worst of macroeconomic circumstances. The prize is the right of issuing the WRC; irredeemable script!

Yeap, can't agree with you more but like what was mentioned the stakes are high for the WRC. It's just possible that EU needs a little sobering up after the US induced boom. From where I'm looking I can see sky lines with empty shell buildings, the effects of 97/98. So yes I know about these things and their effects in the areas you talk about.
But we need to move on from where we were, so how do we go about building it all up again after this "crash"? Economic's or war? Easy choice for me to answer.
Got Gold?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7A62450C%2D1234%2D47BE%2DBCBE%2D282D053C3007%7D&siteid=mktwNEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan Chase fell almost 7 percent Thursday, unable to shake early talk on Wall Street -- denied by the nation's second largest bank -- that it has suffered large gold-related derivatives losses.

J.P. Morgan Chase's (JPM: news, chart, profile) stock closed down $1.46, or 6.6 percent, at $20.40. Earlier, shares had traded as low as $20.01.

"The rumors circulating today are false and irresponsible," a spokesman for bank said Thursday morning.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said the derivatives-loss talk made the rounds before the opening of trading, but he generally dismissed them, noting that the entire financial sector was struggling Thursday and that the cloud of a civil lawsuit was also hanging over the Dow Industrials component.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal had reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission had notified Goldman Sachs (GS: news, chart, profile) and J.P. Morgan Chase that it recommended filing civil securities-fraud charges against the two over the way they allocated IPO shares.

Against this backdrop, the Philadelphia Bank Index ($BKX: news, chart, profile) shed 3.7 percent Thursday. The Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index ($XBD: news, chart, profile) also retreated to the tune of 3.6 percent.

Rumor rides again

Rumors of derivatives losses at J.P. Morgan Chase have sporadically appeared in the market over the last 18 months, particularly with respect to gold.

Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference on Thursday, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have potentially dangerous exposure to gold derivatives.

"It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of the precious metal. Read Thom Calandra's StockWatch for more on gold derivatives and the New Orleans conference.

Murphy said central banks' gold loans and swaps amount to about 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running at about 1,400 tons.

"Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you get a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he asserted.

U.S. banks and their customers continued to pour money into derivatives in the second quarter, as the total value of the specialized contracts passed $50 trillion.

The second-quarter data are the most recent available from the Comptroller of the Currency, which is responsible for monitoring derivatives. See the OCC report.

The banks with the largest derivative positions were J.P. Morgan Chase, with $25.9 trillion, up from $23.5 trillion in the first quarter; Bank of America (BAC: news, chart, profile), with $10.3 trillion, compared with $9.8 trillion last quarter; and Citibank, a Citigroup (C: news, chart, profile) subsidiary, with $7.4 trillion, up from $6.7 trillion in the first quarter.

http://www.nexusmagazine.com/hammer1.htmlIt looks like GOLD might be important to a few others also!

http://www.arabnews.com/print.asp?id=20208&ArY=2002&ArM=11&ArD=8JEDDAH, 8 November � Interior Minister Prince Naif, who is also chairman of the Manpower Council, has ordered the total Saudization of jobs in gold and jewelry shops from the beginning of next Hijrah year (March 4, 2003), Al-Madinah reported yesterday.

The shop owners have also been strictly instructed to implement 50 percent Saudization this year itself. The minister had ordered that 30 percent of jobs in the sector be Saudized last year, 50 percent this year and 100 percent by next year, but the authorities concerned complained to the prince about noncompliance by shops in most regions.

In order to end the complaint that it is difficult to find qualified Saudis to handle precious metals and stones, a group of Saudi businessmen have decided to open an institute to train youth in all skilled jobs related to the manufacture and sale of gold and jewelry, Al-Watan reported yesterday.

There are about 13,500 jobs available for Saudis in the jewelry sector, according to some studies. Non-Saudi workers, who earn SR450 million annually from the industry, hold most of the jobs. The new institute will facilitate the smooth replacement of expatriate workers with Saudis in line with the government decision to Saudize the sector.

Muhammed Azouz, a member of the gold and jewels committee at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry and director of the training project at the chamber, said that the World Gold Council had also expressed interest in the diploma courses to be conducted at the proposed institute.

The areas of training will cover trades such as sales of gold and jewels, specialized accounting of gold workshops, handling precious stones, designing, filling and inlaying, polishing and determining the standard of gold.

The cost of providing training to 13,500 Saudis will work out to more than SR282 million. When the training courses are completed Saudis will be fully qualified to replace 3,500 expatriates working in 1,100 shops and 10,000 skilled laborers working in 360 workshops in Jeddah alone.
_________________
Saudis going for da gold.
Yes young man, your future is in the Gold industry.
Get your diplomas while der hot.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/business/4457715.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK - For all too many Americans struggling to dig out from debt, Wednesday's surprisingly big cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve may help very little, experts say. Personal bankruptcy rates are rising, job growth has stalled and consumer debt is at an all-time high. So it's unclear -- even after the Fed cut rates by an aggressive one-half percentage point -- whether the tapped-out consumers can do much more to keep the economy humming. "More and more Americans are living life styles they can't afford using borrowed money," said Steve Rhode, president of Myvesta, a financial crisis center in Rockville, Maryland. "It's not just credit cards -- it's homes too big for them to afford, cars too big for them to afford."


Black Blade: Yes, once again, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash several months worth of emergency cash for expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Obviously as the "Bone Pile" grows many find themselves buried under crushing debt, they will wish they had prepared ahead of time. Bankruptcy will no longer be an option as credit cards and some other debt obligations will soon no longer be wiped away by the courts. It looks to get very ugly. The economy is seriously bad shape and many will suffer as there is no way out � why do you think that Alan and the boys at the Fed sprang into action to slash interest rates as aggressively as they did? They suggest a "neutral" bias, but then they are in business to calm the fears of distraught investors. Be careful especially now � it's a jungle out there.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

A Matter of Spin & Perception

The markets move on perception, and perception is influenced by how the news is presented. One day bad earnings can drive down markets; while the next day similar bad earnings can trigger a rally. In October Intel's disappointing numbers triggered a market selloff. The very next day IBM's numbers triggered a market rally. IBM's earnings were down 18% and they mentioned in their footnotes that they would need to make a $1.5 billion contribution to their pension plan. The news coming from IBM was consistent with most of the news coming out of the tech sector. Sales are sluggish and there has been no significant pickup in demand. Companies that are making a profit are doing so mainly through cost cutting. They are slashing costs by trimming back payroll. The point to understand is that there has been no news that would have indicated the economy or profit picture has changed. In fact, the economic situation has actually worsened. Why the market rallied on IBM and sold off on Intel is all part of how the news is spun and perceived.

However, at the moment Wall Street isn't selling things. Most firms abandoned their commodities trading departments years ago. Commodities have been in a bear market for decades, so most firms don't talk about it. When was the last time your broker called you up and talked about oil, natural gas, gold, silver, cocoa, coffee, and grains? It is unlikely you have received that call. Analysts and anchors pay very little attention to the fact that the AMEX Gold Index is up over 88% this year. You don't hear much about the fact that the CRB Index is up close to 19% this year, or that oil and natural gas is up over 25%. Instead, all you hear is that IBM beat estimates and that most companies beat estimates, which is always the way it plays out each quarter. You don't get real news that is helpful for investing; you are told how the market has bottomed or why stocks are cheap.

Black Blade: A major reason I am laying off of CNBC for a while. I will just read or listen to the facts without the "spin" as I don't need the Pied Pipers and Trolls to feed me a daylong infomercial. I find it quite amusing that the individual investor has not been in the market � in fact Trim Tabs reports consistent weekly withdrawals from mutual funds and declining participation in 401K's. I see that the bulk of trading is in large "block trades" which indicates that it is mostly just the institutional players who are left in the game. It appears that they are playing against each other while the individual investor is content to just sit this one out (or jump into the real estate bubble). Heck, I even notice that insiders are bailing out at nearly a 2 to 1 rate. If the insiders want out of their own companies stocks why the hell should anyone else want in? I watch this Wall Street game play out with occasional "bear market rallies" (or as I prefer "suckers rallies" and "dead cat bounces"). There is simply no substance underneath all the fluff. I find it equally amazing that hard assets like precious metals are selling at such a bargain under these circumstances. I suspect that we could be seeing just the first stirrings of a precious metals market rally that will catch shorts flat-footed, crush hedgers, send some derivatives players with hat in hand to regulatory agencies and begging for government bailouts (can you say Randolph and Mortimer Duke? I knew you could). Should be fun!

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20021107-thu.html#anchor0
Snippit:

Policy makers at the Federal Reserve did the right thing with their seemingly aggressive monetary easing on 6 November. I applaud them for that. It is impossible to fight deflation with small incremental moves. However, there's far more to the Fed's statement than meets the eye. It did not convey a full sense of the risks now bearing down on the US economy. Nor, contrary to widespread interpretation, did it offer any guarantees that the medicine will work.

On the surface, an aggressive 50-bp rate cut seems just what the doctor ordered. Never mind that the previous 11 moves totaling 475 bp of rate cuts haven't worked their charm. Most believe that this one is bound to make a difference. The Fed is doing everything in its power to deepen such conviction. By stating that it has shifted to a balanced policy bias, the central bank is sending a message that this easing was the last one for this cycle. According to this logic, the only thing left now is to wait out the lags.

I beg to differ. For me, the story is all about deflation, and what the central bank must to do to prevent such an outcome. In that context, I find it hard to take confidence in a now neutral policy bias. This aspect of the Fed's latest action was pure spin. Make no mistake, an aggressive 50-bp move is a signal of heightened alert. Yet, had the monetary authorities not qualified this action with a neutral bias, I believe there would have been full-scale panic in the financial markets. The Fed would have been portrayed as being in a state of high anxiety over mounting deflationary perils. That's the last message it wanted to send. Instead, the central bank is attempting to convince the markets that all is under control.

The risk is the Fed is wrong. That's because it may already be too late to arrest the gathering forces of deflation.


Black Blade: I have to applaud Stephen Roach's clarity on his position. He makes a good case. The Fed is walking a tightrope � one miscue or overshooting their target could conceivably send the economy over the edge into deflation (see Japan). On the other hand if the Fed panics as we approach the abyss and they fire up the presses all out 24/7, we could easily swing the other direction into an inflationary environment (though I suspect Stagflationary 1970's style could be more likely). Definitely a good article worth reading for another viewpoint not considered by the establishment on Wall Street. No matter, Gold and Silver portfolio insurance is in order for either possible outcome.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/rates/2002-11-06-saving-rates_x.htm
Snippit:

The Federal Reserve's half-point rate cut Wednesday dealt a blow to savers already reeling from the lowest interest rates in 41 years. "It's gone from bad to worse for conservative investors," says Greg McBride, a financial analyst at Bankrate.com. It's harder and harder to find a safe, liquid place to put cash that will stay ahead of inflation. The national average yield for FDIC-insured money market accounts is 0.95%, McBride says. The latest Fed rate cut will cause that to fall even more � perhaps to 0.75%, he says.


Black Blade: Can you say "Japan"? I knew you could.

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !EIGHTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 00:10 Denver time 11/08/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - 0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - 0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3

(looks as if Sir Basil is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012

$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 ?*? nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)
===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be a few "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)

That UPDATE was about 20 minutes EARLY !
<;-)

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=160866
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Nov. 7 -- Natural gas futures prices dipped again Wednesday just ahead of a government report Thursday of the first withdrawal of gas supplies from US underground storage for this winter season. The US Energy Information Administration said 27 bcf of gas was withdrawn from US underground storage last week, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Measured by heating-degree days, US weather last week generally was 28% colder than the previous week, 60% colder than a year ago, and 30% colder than the 10-year average.

Black Blade: Looks like a colder than normal start to the winter heating season. Colder weather and declining production have resulted in earlier than usual natural gas withdrawals from storage. NatGas decline rates are accelerating just as expected and drill rig counts are still at depressed levels. We could be looking at another developing "energy crisis" in coming months. That will hit the weakened economy like a ton of bricks!

Also, the NatGas storage chart at the following link:

http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1087
An Interview with Frank Shostak

Mises.org: The Fed has lowered the interest rate, again, and it seems that the whole world is celebrating.

Frank Shostak: Actually, it is a disastrous move, so far as I'm concerned. Last year, the Fed cut interest rates 11 times. Why anyone should believe the 12th is the charm is beyond me. From the end of last year until now, the federal funds rate was 1.75 percent, and now we have a very aggressive lowering by half a percent to 1.25 percent.

This indicates desperation. It shows that the Fed believes the economy is doing poorly, more poorly than is usually reported, but that they have no idea why or what to do about it. --

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Trasp&ARTICLE_ID=160871

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, DC, Nov. 7 -- The fate of a sweeping US energy reform bill remains uncertain, but BP PLC officials said Wednesday that Congress sooner than later needs to consider legislation that encourages construction of an Alaska natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Lower 48 states. "Energy legislation is essential now to enable the gas to flow in 10 years," BP official David Welch said at a Washington briefing. Welch is overseeing BP's potential investment in the massive project, with an estimated construction cost of $20 billion. He said Alaska gas is needed since traditional supplies cannot keep pace with US demand. "We expect existing production areas will struggle just to maintain current supply," Welch said. "All North American sources of gas plus new LNG imports are needed to meet demand." Without a new gas supply, a gap of 15 bcfd (6 tcf/year) or more is likely within 10 years, the company said.


Black Blade: Even Alaska cannot keep up with increasing demand. However, natural gas in the lower 48 are not being developed now. Also it appears that a taxpayer subsidized pipeline is the wrong way to approach this project. The price of NG will naturally rise anyway as more NG fired power plants are built and the environmental restrictions require the closure of older coal and oil fired power plants. Regardless, the costs of energy will go in only one direction � higher!

http://www.gas.com/p/e3/992d18dfd12b.html?id=fd9f3a
The U.S. draft resolution on Iraq which was cosponsored by Britain and officially submitted to the Security Council Wednesday. The draft can be found at the link above.

Black Blade: For anyone interested, the resolution spells out the demands set by the US that Iraq submit to the conditions of their surrender as well as new demands.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&ncid=736&e=2&u=/ap/20021107/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_un
Snippit:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq's government-controlled media on Thursday denounced the latest U.S. draft resolution on weapons inspections as a pretext for war against Baghdad and urged the U.N. Security Council not to bow to American demands.

Black Blade: What? I'm shocked - shocked I tell ya! I think Saddam just has no sense of humor.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,69378,00.html
Snippit:

In the first major break in the inquiry into the Bali nightclub bombings, Indonesian officials said that a suspect has admitted to taking part in the Bali bombing and led police to a house where residue of the explosives were recovered. Police believe six to 10 people were involved in the attack on a nightclub district frequented by foreigners that killed nearly 200 people, and that there were signs of international involvement. "We have their names already," he said in Manila. "We know their identities. What the police are doing now is searching throughout the country. Gen. Da'i Bachtiar, the national police commander, said Thursday that the suspect, an Indonesian man identified only as Amrozi, owned the L300 Mitsubishi minivan laden with at least 110 pounds of explosives that blew up outside a packed nightclub on Bali. "Amrozi was one of the main perpetrators in the Bali bombing," Bachtiar told a news conference Thursday, adding that Amrozi was part of a group that planned and carried out the attack.


Black Blade: So far no evidence of Indonesian military involvement, though there are apparently links to radical Islamists.

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2002110800312r4783&SA=Latest%20NewsLONDON (Dow Jones)--Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
representatives this week sent clear signals that the producer group will hold
crude oil output targets steady well into 2003, and continue to manage prices by
unofficially adjusting production.

As I said earlier, once the USD falls through the 104.87 support level, all hell could break loose. Noice that the POG is surging higher as US dollar support collapses. "Check and Mate"

- Black Blade

@ Rich : The hart of the matter is that we do not realize how much of this dollar-stuff has been distributed around the globe in the past 30 YEARS ! NOT ONE SINGLE DOLLAR WILL RETURN BACK TO WHERE IT ORIGINALLY CAME FROM !
Why would/should the US accept any of the, confetti it has been producing all those decades !? There's not such thing as "return to sender" ! Adress unknown and Alice doesn't live here anymore.

The whole globe has been dollarized, the american way (americanism). It was a perfect job, made possible, thanks to the two WWs, raging in the old European continent AND the perfect "divide and rule" strategy in the ME-cheap-oil, deserts.

But what's next :

Euroland is on its feeth and the ME is waking up ! The dollarization has run its course. In the very nearby future, the globe doesn't prefer to trade "on the dollar" anymore ! This process is definitely on its rails and the past global dollarization must be unwinded, by preference peacefully and without unnecessary shocks, if possible.

Imvho, Rich, there is no specific timing in such a process. There are only options within unpredictable time frames.
When and to what extend is it opportune to push the dollar back and let it perisch/witter ? It is that specific, non-confrontational, European way, of doing things. The old continent, supervising the young an violent stallions.

But let there be no doubt anymore on the main option of pushing the US$ back to where it belongs and decrease its "importance", drastically. The alternatives are in place : Gold, the euro, within the oil concept as a transitional period before reaching a more healthy global "balance".

The US$, knew this fate/destiny, would happen one day. But can't attack Euroland and its euro, frontally. Therefore, the dollar has chosen the cheap oil as the weakest and most important dollar-supporting, tangible. Please note that Sharon wanted Iran, included in the oil-occupation/confiscation ! Waw, what an ambitious suggestion.

My amateuristic conclusion is that those massive dollar-piles, growing at a faster and faster pace (trade-deficit), floating all over this globe, will slowly be replaced at convenient times quantities and places. Dollar-debts will be rolled over less and less and exchanged for its alternatifs. The dollar currency will gradually be "phased out". Geopolitical events and possible economical shocks (or lack of) will determine how fast and deep this will take place. There is no crystal ball for this kind of predictions. As there was no timing for the fall of the Berlin wall and the implosion of the communist empire (?) without any revolution or one shot fired.

Note that the UK left its IRs, unchanged, ALSO !!! In wich camp do you think they want to be ? The coming events (and aftermath) in the ME will be a possible catalysator on global relations. It remains a very difficult exercise in political balancing, the more, no one wants to push the US as a western ally. It is only the dollar-imperialism that went too far and omnipotent.

I, personally don't care about "timing". I do prefer to understand the options and checking on their implementations. More precisely how the dollar and the euro evolve (behave) vis � vis Gold. This behavior must tell us if the currency war is "THE" war !? The POO final destiny is being a tool for harmonic balance for a more prosperous and peaceful globe. If Bush gets re-elected, things will evolve more rapidly. But all this depends on what happens in the ME.

Americans do think in straith lines and not in spirals. A very difficult, combination/antagonism, for keeping peace and prosperity going. Let us all hope, suffering, will be limited to the absolute minimum. Life is great and well worth living.

http://www.mips1.net/mgno.nsf/UNID/DMKY-5FNQJF?OpenDocument
Snippit:

NEW ORLEANS -- Investment newsletter guru Richard Russell has for some time been urging his subscribers to accumulate gold stocks and the metal itself as an antidote to a sorrowful recuperation from the speculative bubble of the late 1990s. The bull market that he says ran from 1974 to 2000 was unprecedented, and he believes the consequences will be just as unprecedented. The keynote speaker at this year's New Orleans Investment Conference, it was not just another gold bug message. Russell's reputation was minted through uncannily accurate trend spotting that made his followers truly wealthy, which is why the audience swelled to hear him. He is warning average investors to quit the market altogether unless they have really good advice; which will not come from Wall Street. "Wall Street is there to distribute stock to raise capital. They are worried about their commissions, not their clients."

Black Blade: Interesting article. $3000 gold sounds good, but that may be because the dollar is crumbling and gold will be your primary insurance policy against economic calamity. Hang on for the ride!

BTW, it appears that some big hitters are coming out of the woodwork to attempt to put a cap on the rising POG tonight. Looks like a battle is ensuing here. The POG was poised to rattle a lot of cages and the fear factor must have jumped a few notches and probably a few late night phone calls were made to this "side of the pond". Maybe JP Morgan Chase's gold derivative denials were premature or they are sweating tonight. "Interesting Times"

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APctTeRXJVGFrZW5h
Japanese bonds are headed for their first losing week since September after government warnings that slowing economic growth is eroding tax revenue, which sparked concern the nation will sell more debt.
-----------
Japan's government debt will probably rise to 693 trillion yen by the end of March, according to Ministry of Finance figures. That's 40 percent more than the nation's gross domestic product and the highest among industrialized countries.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APct9GBWIT2ZmLUV4Basel, Switzerland, Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Derivatives trading outside exchanges grew 15 percent to $128 trillion in the first half of the year, driven by contracts pegged to interest rates, the Bank for International Settlements said.

``Derivatives are mainly used by financial institutions according to what they expect to happen to interest rates,'' said Serge Jeanneau, a statistician at the BIS. ``They're efficient instruments for managing financial risk.''

The market is at its biggest ever -- more than four times global gross domestic product as measured by the World Bank. Placed end to end, 128 trillion dollar bills would reach to the sun and back 67 times. Interest-rate contracts expanded 16 percent to $90 trillion from December to June, the BIS said in its twice- yearly report.
_________
Most of these instruments are interest rate related!
Yikes!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Foreign equities markets are mostly treading in negative territory tonight. US market futures are flat, the USD is weaker, and Gold is holding onto steady gains.

- Black Blade

BTW, I see that SJ Kaplan is still "Moderately Bearish" on gold. But then he's been bearish on gold since $255 an ounce. Hmmm...

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/This page gives you fair market value for futures.
Pre Market info.

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf99/opa4327-99.htmWhat happened - link above would do the tric.
NEMO

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/TGAM/20021108/RPLAC/Business/business/business_temp/4/4/5/
Snippit:

Placer Dome Inc. shares have been caught up in a torrent of trading as major mining players mull possible takeover scenarios. Industry sources said a number of foreign and domestic mining companies have privately expressed interest in acquiring some of Vancouver-based Placer's far-flung international gold mining assets in recent months, but no suitor has shown interest in bidding for the entire company. Sources familiar with some potential suitors said a number of proposals are being floated to resolve concerns about Placer's asset mix. For example, these sources said, one tentative proposal calls for a syndicate of buyers to launch a bid. If such a bid were successful, syndicate members would divide Placer's various assets among themselves. Suitors that have been approached about joining the syndicate, sources said, include Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. and some unidentified pension funds and financial investors. Markets were rife with rumours yesterday that London-based AngloGold Ltd. might soon mount a bid on its own or as a joint bid with another mining company.

Black Blade: Some "interesting" rumors this morning. Some say Newmont is in the hunt, others say Barrick, and yet others say a consortium of investors. Placer does have a few choice assets so who knows. This would be a big event in the mining industry if a takeover does occur.

How extremely difficult is it to manage the global dollar-exodus ? Very difficult !
Any kind of panic, resulting in an accelerated $-decline "must" be avoided by the Central Banks. That is not an easy task in combination with the different (euro/US) IR-policies.

The currency markets are not going to risk a big dollar-move as to not destroy themselves. Let us not forget that banks, aren't banks anymore, but gigantic storehouses of inflated paper-mountains, circling around and proliferating. Not only banks but many global businesses as well, will surely implode/default with a strong/fast, dollar-decline/collapse.

The dollar-shift must (at any cost) proceed *** Gradually *** ! The oil-pricers (OPEC) are co-operating to make this happen. But for how much longer can they remain disciplined and have their oil priced in dollars ? (impossible timing)

Phasing out the US$ is one of the most dramatic adventures in monetary history. It is happening now ! Gold remains very, very disciplined, together with oil. Their price-behavior is to be interpreted against this background.
One day, there will be a strong price-gapping in both because of a detoriating economy and geo-political tensions.
The gapping will be boosted by the derivative situation.

But all this remains impossible to time. It is a spiralling proces and not linear.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThe dollar presently is 104.77!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APct9GBWIT2ZmLUV4... according to BIS in Basle. That's 4 times the world's GDP (World Bank).

By far the largest player is JPM Chase with a 26,2 Trillion stake of the cake - denials R'Us?

Thank you for your insight. I have learned much from you in the past few years on this board. One thing that you said earlier caused me to think about the predicition on the gold trail regarding the dollar being abandoned on a wholesale level when England elects to go with the Euro (the vote for which is currently scheduled for May 2003). You said:

"Note that the UK left its IRs, unchanged, ALSO !!! In wich camp do you think they want to be ?"

Is possibly the fact that the BOE is taking cues from the ECB instead of the FED an implicit admission that the switch from the dollar to the Euro in roughly six months is a foregone conclusion and those in the know are taking measures now, given this inidcation of intent on the part of England, to "beat the rush to the exits"?

Have a terrific weekend.

PA

http://truecontrarian.com/BB said: "BTW, I see that SJ Kaplan is still "Moderately Bearish" on gold. But then he's been bearish on gold since $255 an ounce. Hmmm..."

Hey Jon,

SJ Kaplan has not update his webpage since September, so we really don't know his current position. Also, SJ Kaplan's position as varied from bearish and bullish a few times since gold was at $255/oz.

Granted, SJ Kaplan has missed profit opportunities by being too bearish in the last year, but he does offer a range of technical factors that should at least be considered. I don't think you're painting SJ Kaplan as a pawn of the gold manipulators is accurate, but I am also glad I haven't strictly followed SJ Kaplan's advice either. ;-)

RE: New OrleansDear friend, you were most definitely missed. On Wednesday eve, I hoisted a couple of pints and toasted your good health.

Richard Russell was worth the price of admission as I had to leave quite early (again). His presentation was a bit eerie; almost ominous. He spoke via video link from a Kinko's in La Jolla so perhaps it was the meduim but....he came across to me as issuing a warning of sorts. If you have read A Christmas Carol, then I know you are familiar with the Ghost of Christmas'Future.

You know, it is often too easy to get caught up in the Bear's case; it is much easier to be pessimistic. Some, by their nature, are more inclined to be ultra conservative with their investments. Myself, I come down on the side of history. History always wins. Mr. Russell is "THE" market historian. DOW @ 4-5K is, in my opinion, in the cards. It is how we get there that will determine lifestyle for many.

Our friend sector had an interesting THOUGHT. He said his opinion on POG is that at some point when the metal is allowed to run free, the "spin" will be that we are conducting a "war on deflation" and that the high POG is not representative of $USD weakness.

Glad to be home as I have no fondness for that venue other than the excellnet company of clear thinkers and red beans and rice (sure do taste nice). Salutations....CM

Well, I never accused him of being a "pawn of gold manipulators". However, I have read his commentary and recos for the last few years and he has been primarily bearish (especially so since gold hit about $255 an ounce). He made one or two reversals only to quickly change course again. His other recos in stocks and funds have been..... how should I put this? Oh, deep in the red. His call for shorting tech stocks (notably ebay and Amazon) was a might bit early. Anyone followng that advice would have been whip-sawed badly. Granted the tech bubble was obvious to most of us, however, to go short in the middle of a "mania" is extremely dangerous.

But then again, these are differences between those who take a fundamental analysis (big picture) and value-oriented approach to investing vs. day trading tactics using technical analysis. No one position is perfect though I would say that those who bought at deep discount (contrarian investors) vs. those to buy trends (momentum investors) have done much better. It also helps to know that producers can't supply the market with product at below cost for very long ;-)

As far as his current position I would say that he would most likely have updated his site if his current outlook had changed. Obviously he hasn't found any need to make any changes to his position. His primary focus has been on COT's of commercials and speculators. That strategy hasn't worked for gold in a few years. Gold reacts to events both related to and external to the markets. Quite a dangerous strategy as he and others have come to find out. But then I am quite happy with my investment decisions as I have been consistently in the black. Investing really isn't all that complicated - it certainly isn't rocket science.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

For EU watchersCurrently running at 4.6% according to govt. stats. The largest increases were in "education and housing". At least they measure those two critical elements of modern lifestyles.

If those two components were added to US stats, inflation as reflected by prices for same would be much, much higher. While were at it, let's not forget about the cost of various insurnce products (here in US)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_windex&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&T=markets_box.ht&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APcvEKhUnRnJhbmNlFrance and Russia Back U.S. on Iraq, Call for Unanimous UN Vote
By Bill Varner

SNIPPET


"`Debate Over'
``The debate about whether we're going to deal with Saddam Hussein is over,'' Bush said in Washington yesterday. ``Now the question is how to deal with him. This time it's for real. This time something happens.'' "

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021108/0938000489_1.html
Snippit:

OAK BROOK, Ill. -- McDonald's Corp. unveiled plans Friday to close 175 under performing restaurants and cut between 400 and 600 jobs world-wide in an effort to emphasize sales growth at existing restaurants.

Black Blade: Oh no! Another career opportunity lost. The "Bone Pile" grows.

The new UN resolution passed the UN Security Council 15-0. Iraq has one week to accept the new demnads or face war. Looks like a done deal as it includes weapons searches in Saddam's "palaces" and anywhere - anytime searches within the Iraq's borders.

- Black Blade

With the tide of paper currencies and manipulated derivatives far outpacing the advance in the gold price from $35 in the sixties and with the $ now on shaky ground due to the vast current account deficit, budget deficit, and Fed support operations for the banks (mandated by such a weak debt laden economy ), the gold price at $322 is a far, far better deal for savers than that which existed in the late sixties. Go physical gold!

Sometime back, in a discussion with Belgian, I pointed out that banks would have difficulties in low to zero interest rate environment in that profits would be squeezed as interest rate differentials narrowed. To make enough money to support a bank at .25% spread (for example), a bank's loan book would have to swell beyond any measure of prudence. In order to survive, banks will have to charge more for the various services it offers just to survive. That's why you saw the drop in bank sector stocks yesterday, including JP Morgan.

But what about money market funds which do not have the luxury of charging for services like banks do?

In today's Financial Times an article titled "Fed rate cut puts squeeze on money market funds," we learn that the .5% interest rate plunge threatens savers like you and me far beyond what we may have imagined when the cuts were first announced. As we open our future money market account statements, we are going to see something that is sure to cause a sinking feeling -- the rate of return in many cases will have fallen below 1%! This raises the specter of "breaking the buck" -- that is asset values falling in money market funds below $1 causing investors to "actually lose money on their money fund investments."

Forget about "real rate of return," Belgian. We are no courting the prospect of not even receiving a "nominal rate of return" in our savings! The FT article pooh-poohs the prospect then immediately talks of money market funds merging to survive. We have never had an interest rate environment near zero in the modern financial structure. This is all new ground, and no one in the banking industry has a clue where this is going to take us. Bruce Bent, the founder of money market funds according to FT, warns investors "to take the opportunity to look at the quality of their funds as they struggle to maintain the status quo." Oh -Oh.

I can say one thing for certain: My gold holdings went up 1% just in the past few days. I know my money markets are going to come in right around 1% but more probably lower. These are the kind of numbers that will cause a radical shift in capital allocation all over the globe -- and in the United States among millions of savers who no longer can count on the dollar to provide a return. The very dour look of Alan Greenspan as pictured in this morning Financial Times tells the story better than any words I can put on this page. As a Wall Street friend said to me yesterday, " Alan doesn't know how to walk away."

By the way, I see the ECB hold as temporary -- much dissent on the ECB board, we hear. Much like the Fed before the big cut. Holding out for the nation states to demonstrate fiscal integrity is not going to hold up in the current Euroland political environment. Gold demand will gather pace on both sides of the Atlantic as the realization sets in that no paper is good paper these days.

The dollar has hit a new low for the day as has the S&P index, yet gold and silver are not responding by rising.

The minipulators seem to be more concerned with the precious metals than with currency and the stock markets.

I can confirm you Sir, that many of the Britisch people are already leaving, de facto, their sterling currency, by buying, massively, real estate in France and Spain. The Irish "Yes" was a booster and Sweden's "OK", will add to it.
But don't get too optimistic about your six months time table or the "rushing" in. Remember, we want it "gradually" and smoothly. There's a hell of a lot of this dollar-confetti that needs to be exchanged/transformed and those who are stucked with it, prefer to do so at the most favorable exchange rate possible. Nobody is served with any kind of *collapsing* currency. The ECB might even lower its IRs, if and when the dollar-flight might go too fast or violent. IRs will NOT be lowered for economical purposes !!!
cfr. Duisenberg : lower IRs will not bring jobs or prevent unemployment. It is purely exchange rate management from Euroland's point of vieuw. Not so for the dollar-block.

There's my guess. Having been shook out of my favorite gold mine stock by its ups and downs, I am firmly convinced that the best way to be in this GOLD bull market is to buy at a reasonable point and hold on. The POG may fluctuate and the same old "fear talk" may be posted on the boards that was posted when GOLD was trying to break $300, but today the price is well over that amount. The POG will zigzag it's way across the time line, but it's overall trend is UP. Buy now, wait a year or two, don't worry to much in between the times. Our fundamental reasons for joining the GOLD bull market has not changed nor will it change with the daily fluctuations. Hold on tight. Good luck to all and thanks for all your postings.

mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 89067)
===
Come on !! I know you can do it !
<;-)

Yes, buying gold now is nearly identical as buying gold in the late 1960's. Gold always has been and always will be an international currency and source of wealth. Regardless of the price that gold is, it will always be a valuable commodity to own and nothing can change that. A nation's currency can rise and then fall, but gold is forever.

http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/50328.htmJoe sixpack is finding himself sandwiched between raging inflation (despite the fact that the government is lying about it to keep COLA adjustments low) and increasing taxes. Couple that with the fact that what little remaining discretionary Joe Sixpack has left after buying too much house during the boom times is not being spent because JS thinks that he may be next in line for the bone pile. All this has to make you wonder just how much more steam the consumer has left in his little engine.

BTW, I hate being refererred to as a consumer. I am a sovereign.

@ Belgian - Thank you again for your insight. Your wisdom is very much appreciated and often needed to smooth out my reactionary positions or statements.

Take care all!

Paper Avalanche

Great insight, as others feel the same.
Your post was just chosen as brilliant by Chris Powell of GATA:

11:16a CT Friday, November 8, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The most brilliant analysis of the week may belong to
Michael Kosares of Centennial Precious Metals in
Denver, proprietor of www.USAGold.com, who seems
to have tossed off the commentary below as a casual
aside on his Internet site's forum. If you read only
one thing on the markets this week, read this.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Thanks for your thoughts and congrats - cb2

We also have to consider that fiat can sit idle and simply undergoes its destruction without finding the Gold escape route. Declining stock markets have the effect of evaporizing fiat that never was. Declining IRs are only bookmarked profits (rising bond-prices) that will never materialize (cashed profits_no buyers). In other words, fiat-confetti simply vanishes without having been exchanged for a tangible. The confetti mountains melt.
Who dares to organise POG's runaway gap as to signal wich way, one has to run ? Is this the reason why funds are not allowed to invest in physical Gold ?

Yes, I keep on dreaming about that fatal squeeze and the fatal "one step too far". But how much freedom is left in this financial jungle ? If 100 Trillion of derivatives can grow to 125 Trillion...
If France and Russia can be bribed on Iraq ...
If stocks can remain so obscenely over-valued for so long...

The financial circus is on its way of total paralysis through hyperkinesis/volatility, except for POG. How do you see this squeeze happennig ?

$$$$ 322.7 $$$$

The answer to the question of Rule #7.....is.....yes and no. Yes in that gold was/is managed to create the illusion of a stable dollar value, unrelated to reality and ready to jump. No in that this time we've made no promise of a link. Just a wink. Not a link. Winks have an unlimited upside. Is that 30 words?

P.S. Thanks MK for the Philharmonic runner-up coin in the last price quessing contest. It arrived within the week in a box so big and wrapped so tight. It's a jewel of a coin. If anyone wants to take it from me they'll have to pry it out of my cold dead fingers (apologies to Chuck Heston).

P.P.S. Looks like a wedge formation on the $POG chart with convergence around $325. Irresistible force vs. immovable object? The object gets moved, but not by December 02 settlement close.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlThe assistance and pricing you want, the professionalism you need.
(see link above for details)

I sure hope that the PTB have their contingency plans in order, or that their crystal balls are a lot clearer than most, cause it appears to me they've just backed our enemies into a pretty tight corner.

We now have Republican majority in both houses and a political shift to the right.

We've drawn the line in the sand for Iraq thru the UN, but with what appears to be 45 day or so wiggle room which could conveniently take us thru year end financially.

We have the Fed with what sure looks like a preemptive rate cut for something in excess of what was expected, which to me is nothing more than a life preserver for the multinational banks and interest rate derivatives that is probably designed to keep a major failure from happening in the near term.

And then we have Bush's speach today, with the comment that we still reserve the right to defend ourselves.

My take is that we have a war-war senario. Even if Sadaam rolls over completely, which I doubt seriously, our good friends the Al Queda probably have the ability to throw a monkey wrench into the pot with another terrorist attack which will more than likely be the straw that could break our economy's back.

I don't see a peaceful way out of this, and the .50 rate cut is buying just about enough financial time for war, Sadaam, and/or the terrorists to take the blame for the fall rather than the system.

PM's also appear to be in a win-win senario, with what appears to be serious but subtle accumulation.

Pizz

UPDATE on THE "gc2z" POG GUESSING CONTEST !!!NINTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 12:20 Denver time 11/08/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - 0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - 0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$?$? 320.5 ?$?$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 ?*? nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be some "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)

Thanks CB2. My best wishes to you and yours. Can't go into ski season, snow on the highest ranges without thinking about you. And thanks for the kind words.


And thanks to you too, Chris. As all politics are local, so all finance comes down to each of our individual portfolios. We all sit afloat in this same leaky boat. My best to you, Bill Murphy and GATA. With all due respect, I defer to Mr. Richard Russell and his recent comments for brilliance. He is much sager than I -- a mentor for all of us -- and, in turn, all of us on the gold side are wiser for his presence. I agree with him that gold and the DJIA will cross in the 2000 to 3000 range. That crossover can only happen in the tumult of a monetary crisis.

Belgian, you are so right to ask about "how much freedom is left in the financial jungle." A day does not go by in conversations with well-heeled investors, when the subject inevitably gets around to the limited choices these days (in this environment). Just had an interesting conversation with a client where we went through the check-list of choices and just about skotched all options -- or at least defined their limitations. The best we can do is diversify, build savings (paper & gold), conduct our businesses, professions and work to the best of our ability, and, as always, hope for the best.

Forgive me for being stupid, but I still have NOT picked up on WHY WE (USA BANKING SYSTEM) CANNOT EXIST/FUNCTION/OPERATE with .5% Interest Rates??? If we have a source of Oil, does it really matter if we lose the CURRENCY WAR? WE HAVE ALREADY LOST THAT WAR! GREENSPAN KNOWS IT; HE'S NOT THAT BIG A DUMMY! Foreignors will take our dollars if they want to sell anything and boost their economic well being. The banks, because of their derivative positions are essentially NOW insolvent, broke/busted, whatever you want to call their status. Who cares about money market/CD/passbook/ accounts? They are financial vehicles that have no relevance in today's economic setting/outgrown their lifespan just like the dollar. HAS ANYBODY even considered that with negative returns from these financial instruments, other alternatives (spending/consumption) are the underlying reasons for their eventual elimination! WE JUST NEED OIL! IF WE HAVE OIL, THE US CAN START A NEW INDUSTRIAL AGE IN MANUFACTURING, ETC.
IT IS ALL ABOUT OIL, IN MY BOOK! THE DOLLAR WAS TOAST YEARS AGO, EVEN IF WE HAVE NOT FELT ALL THE REPERCUSSIONS AS OF YET!

One thing. The US will have to split this pot.
The other players at the table are not about to fold and this is not a winner take all game.
Limited choices indeed.

In the footsteps

I hate to see somebody filled with so much fear and pain. It isn't just about oil. We are a rather productive people,we have that in our corner. Last I heard, we are4% of the worlds population yet produce 25% of the world's goods. That is good news. We therefore have lots to trade with. Gold isn't the only hard asset, there are cars, roads , homes etc. Even though the 2002 dollar is only worth 7%? of the 1920 dollar, we are producing enough in today's dollar terms to compensate. That might need to be qualified a little but I do not think it is too far off.

What are those Arabs going to do with all our dollars we give them for the oil. They could burn them but I think they would rather use them to buy some of our goods. That is trade; that means jobs etc. If the day were to come that they didn't need anything from us, then I might worry. Right now without our goods, they would have lots of oil but that is about all.

As far as money markets and CDs go, they aren't doing a lot for investors now but inflation is very low too, so we need to keep that in mind and not lose heart.

I am also have great confidence in our president, George W. Bush. Or should I call him George the Dragonslayer. I think we might be on the brink of something new on the political sphere. I am praying and hopeful. If the elections of 2004 go like those of 2002, we could be seeing a conservative revolution far superior than those of the eighties. The Republican party, the Grand Ol' Party has gone on the offensive and is stating conservative ideas, even conservative fiscal ideas in a language that is winning many Americans over. I believe the day people wake up and see the fact that wealth comes from productivity, not from increased wages or company hoarded profits, then we will be on our way. (Check out Henry Hazlitt's book, Economics in One Lesson.)

In the meanwhile, I still like the look of that pretty yellow metal. So I am keeping 10% of my wealth in gold. I have great hope for our future at this time but diversification makes sense to me in any time.

Now I hope you find peace of mind. Keep smiling and vote Republican. (Keep them in line though. Follow the Heritage Foundation. They come up with the best fiscal and cultural/moral policies. Fortunately, Our Commander-in-Chief is one of their fans)

Salve,
Tacitus

For that well spoken message of hope. A lot of truth in that.

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThanks Black Blade and a happy weekend to all!

Great postAlso, with a falling dollar our exports are now cheaper overseas stimulating (hopefully) more people buying our products. The other obvious side of the coin is that imports are more expensive, encouraging US citizens to Buy American. I know, ECON101 stuff - but that and a little common sense can take you a long way.

Take care and have a great weekend, all.