USAGOLD Discussion - November 2002

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 00:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88593)
Al Qaeda Message Traffic Now Like Before 9/11
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=worldnews&StoryID=1662915
Snippit:

BERLIN (Reuters) - Western spies have detected a resumption of the intense communication among Islamic activists last seen in the months before the September 11 attacks, a senior Western intelligence source said on Thursday. The source said Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network had regained strength and was signaling its capability in recent statements broadcast on Qatar's al-Jazeera television station. "The al Qaeda network's ability to take action has increased and it is signaling this to its followers through an increasing number of messages over al-Jazeera," the senior source, who declined to be identified, told Reuters in an interview. "Parallel to this there has been heightened communications activity among Islamic activists. The result has been an increase in information from intelligence sources that is similar to the picture of summer 2001," the source said. Fears have grown that Germany might become an al Qaeda target because the country is holding the world's first trial of a suspect accused of aiding last year's suicide hijacking attacks on the United States that killed more than 3,000 people.


Black Blade: Maybe so. Now that the nations of the world and US politicians are back to "business as usual" and the heat is off, it could be that something drastic might be planned. With US politicians more focused on elections than anything of substance, terrorist activity probably has a better chance of flying below the radar now.

Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 00:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 88594)
U.S. soldiers train for battle in streets of Iraq
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&ncid=716&e=5&u=/usatoday/20021031/ts_usatoday/4580198
Snippit:

Fighting battles in the confining grid of a large city is among the most difficult and dangerous things armies do. A former U.S. commander in the Middle East, retired Marine Corps general Joseph Hoar, envisions a nightmare scenario in which 100,000 of Saddam's best troops hunker down in Baghdad for a block-by-block battle. ''The absolute lesson to be learned from the 1990-91 Gulf War was that you do not take on the United States armed forces in the open desert and expect to win,'' Hoar said last month in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. More likely is that Saddam would defend Baghdad with his fiercely loyal Republican Guard. If that happens, Hoar predicted, ''The result would be high casualties on both sides.''

To prepare to fight in places such as Baghdad, the Pentagon has studied another grim urban landscape: Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. There, a ragtag band of several hundred rebels inflicted devastating casualties on the Russian army in 1994. The Chechens destroyed entire tank columns, used dead Russian soldiers as shields in their bunkers and cowed a significantly larger force with classic guerrilla methods. In military circles, the battle has become a tutorial in how not to fight in cities. The Russian army sent poorly trained, undermanned units into battle with poor intelligence. One wild card is that Iraq could unleash deadly chemical or biological weapons. But U.S. planners think that if Saddam used such weapons, he would be more likely to aim them at bigger, easier targets such as neighboring countries or U.S. forces massing for an attack.


Black Blade: "Interesting" article. I guess that the moral of this story is: Do the job right the first time or don't do it at all. Still, war in Iraq just might not be inevitable if recent comments by Dubya are any indication, and yet the military is training and building up staging areas in the Middle East. Even the UK is calling up reservists and medical personnel for possible military duty. Hmmm...

Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 01:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88595)
Enron's Fastow indicted
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5402281%255E462,00.html
Snippit:

FORMER Enron Corp. chief financial officer Andrew Fastow was indicted to on 78 federal counts alleging he masterminded a scheme to artificially inflate the energy company's profits. Number of charges: Former Enron finance chief Andrew Fastow has been indicted on 78 counts of fraud, money laundering and conspiracy charges over the scandal in which the failed energy firm hid its massive debt. But the indictment is notable for the sheer number of charges, which include fraud, money laundering, conspiracy and one count of obstruction of justice not included in the original complaint. If convicted, Fastow faces hundreds of years in jail and millions of dollars in fines. Prosecutors say Fastow and others created a scheme to defraud Enron and its shareholders through transactions with off-the-books partnerships that made the company look more profitable than it was. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also filed a civil lawsuit against Fastow claiming that he defrauded investors and violated securities laws. The SEC is seeking unspecified penalties against Fastow and repayment of his allegedly ill-gotten gains.


Black Blade: Probably won't serve a day in a real prison or have a big burly cellmate named Ben Dover.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/01/2002; 01:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 88596)
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Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 01:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88597)
Dynegy Stock Falls 14 Percent
http://www.gas.com/p/bf/f7860a9d9707.html?id=fc0e03
Snippit:

HOUSTON (AP) � Shares of energy merchant Dynegy Inc. dropped 14 percent Thursday after an analyst told investors to sell the stock and get what they can for it. Prudential Securities analyst Carol Coale changed her rating on Dynegy from ``hold'' to ``sell.'' In a letter to clients, Coale questioned the company's future and advised investors to unload their stock.


Black Blade: Just an "interesting" article as this is a rare instance of a Wall Street analyst giving a "SELL" recommendation. Of course Dynegy Inc. will in most likelihood go belly up in a few days. But still, analysts don't usually give "SELL" ratings, even to companies going out of business. A few months ago they were in talks to buy out Enron. We are going to see a lot of failed companies soon, but I doubt there will be "SELL" recos on them. Start of a trend maybe? Hmmm�

Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 01:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 88598)
Experts Question New Energy Sources
http://www.gas.com/p/57/eb7716fccaf1.html?id=fc0dfa
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) � None of the known alternate energy sources are technically ready to take the place of fossil fuels, suggesting the need for a crash energy development program if the world is to avoid the threat of global warming, experts say in a new study. ``What our research clearly shows is that scientific innovation can only reverse this trend if we adopt an aggressive, global strategy for developing alternative fuel sources that can produce up to three times the amount of power we use today,'' said Hoffert, first author of the study. ``Currently, these technologies simply don't exist.'' Currently, the world's power consumption is about 12 trillion watts, with 85 percent of it produced by burning fossil fuels.

The study surveyed the entire field of alternate energy and found most systems have serious technical problems still unsolved. Among them:

�Nuclear fission: It is not the final answer because of a shortage of uranium fuel. The proven reserves of uranium would last less than 30 years if nuclear fission was used to make 10 trillion watts of power, about a third of what will be needed by the end of the century, the study found.

�Solar power: To meet the current U.S. needs with solar power would require sun collectors covering some 1,000 square miles. To make the equivalent of 10 trillion watts of added power would require surface arrays covering almost 85,000 square miles, an area larger than the state of Kansas, the study found.

�Wind power: These systems must operate from remote areas and the current power grids could not manage the load, the study found. New grids, perhaps using cooled superconducting cables, might be needed to harvest power from wind and solar systems.

�Solar power satellites: Orbiting solar arrays could make electricity, convert it to microwaves and then beam that energy to a ground antenna where it would be converted back to electricity. But to make 10 trillion watts of power would require about 660 space solar power arrays, each about the size of Manhattan, in orbit about 22,000 miles above the Earth.

�Hydrogen energy: Hydrogen does not exist in pure, natural reservoirs and has to be extracted from natural gas or water. The study found that more carbon dioxide and less energy is produced by the extraction of hydrogen than by burning natural gas directly. Extracting hydrogen from water using solar or wind power is not now ``cost effective,'' the study found.

�Nuclear fusion: After decades of study, science still has not learned how to extract power from the fusion of atoms. The study said additional research could lead to breakthroughs, but it would require political resolve and heavy investment.


Black Blade: Details, details, details. Hydrocarbon Man will still be searching for "cheap" oil and gas for several decades yet. The costs will continue to rise as "cheap" reserves are consumed and replaced with more expensive reserves or more expensive alternatives. The implications for the economy are obvious. There is no magic bullet here.
Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 02:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88599)
Euro Markets Look Sick This Morning
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Euro markets are in negative territory this morning. Today October unemployment data will be released and it is expected to be very "grim". Should provide some "entertainment" as the Lemmings scramble to and fro.

- Black Blade
Sundeck
(11/01/2002; 03:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88600)
Go Spot - Jump the fence.
Spot is a little frisky tonight - trying to jump that troublesome fence and go howling up the hill...$319

Go Spot - bight those keepers!
Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 04:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 88601)
Gold Rocks and World Markets Twist in the Wind
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
WOW!!! � Gold punched through resistance at $318 and now is knocking on $320 an ounce in a solid move upward.

Other news � Cigna is under investigation by the SEC ("informal" investigation that is). The judge in the Microsoft anti-trust trial will give her decision after the bell today. It is expected that the decision will be in line with recommendations, yet the timing after the bell suggests that she may concur with the opposing states and rule more harshly.

BTW, I just set my computer to split screen with Bloomberg Interactive and a couple of Internet "market sites" (stocks and commodities), and USAGOLD. This is quite a trip! The world at my finger tips or perhaps sensory info-overload. Hmmm�

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 05:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 88602)
Dollar Slides Ahead of Jobs, ISM Data
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021101/markets_forex_4.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a two-month low against the euro and the Swiss franc on Friday, with the market nervous ahead of key U.S. data due later in the session and the possibility of a Fed rate cut at next week's meeting. October's U.S. employment report and non-farm payrolls are due at 8:30 a.m. EST, with economists expecting only a marginal number of new non-farm jobs to have been created last month and with the unemployment rate seen on the rise. The Institute of Supply Management October report at 10 a.m. EST is forecast to show national manufacturing activity contracted further. U.S. economic worries dominated after Thursday's data on third-quarter economic growth and regional manufacturing came in below forecasts, fueling expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before year-end -- possibly next week.


Black Blade: Could get quite "entertaining" today. The Wall Street and CNBC spinmeisters will be working hard and the institutional players could be throwing cash at a dying market, all while dazed and confused Lemmings meander about with blank expressions on their faces and thousand yard stares in their eyes. Looks like fun!

Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 05:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88603)
From The Mail Bag - Why gold?

The following courtesy of Bill Bonner (DailyReckoning.com):

Sun Valley just released a thorough report on how gold performs in deflation. Turns out, gold is one of the best things you can own. When times get tough, businesses go belly-up and loans go bad. People begin to wonder about the quality of the paper they hold. The dollar, the world's most ubiquitous paper asset, could take a big drop. Investors look for safer places to put their money. What they find is gold, the money-of-last resort, the anti-paper asset. Will gold go to $1,000 per ounce? Maybe not, but it probably won't go down much either.

Black Blade: As I have said before, Inflation/Deflation/Stagflation, it does not matter as far as Gold is concerned because Gold will do well in any case. The ultimate money � the ultimate portfolio insurance.

Gold N Rule
(11/01/2002; 06:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88604)
To Sir Gandalf:
Thanks for your gracious welcome and helful hints which shall be taken in pursuit of truth, honor and sound direction...

It appears to be a "Golden Day" for us as -spot- is seen flexing it's muscles.......


Regards,
J.R.

P.S. Must we post a new message in order to reply to a particular message?????
Hipplebeck
(11/01/2002; 06:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88605)
POG
Is the word out that there is a rate cut coming?
Power is shifting.
Someone stick a fork in that dollar, I think it's done.
Gold N Rule
(11/01/2002; 06:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88606)
Commentary:

snippit:


http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/market/news/NSFutures/1036156735.php



Daily US Precious Metals Commentary
11/01/2002

By: Nell Sloane, NSFutures.com


DAILY US METALS COMMENTARY 11/1/02

METALS:11/1 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:GLD+1.10 ,SLV+2.0
,PLAT+2.10

London Gold Fix $318.75 +2.40 LME Copper Warehouse stks 863,000 tons -325 tons

Comex Gold stocks 1.99 Unchanged COMEX Silver stocks 107.8 ml oz Unchanged

OVERNIGHT ACTION: Asian and European gold a little firmer off US economic
concerns.

GOLD: Gold bulls should get some support today in the early trade, as the international
market bought gold off the anticipation that the US might get a sweep of disconcerting
employment news today. The Dollar is also weaker again this morning and the US equity
market is also showing a weaker opening. Therefore, gold is getting help from all the
necessary bull sources. Also supporting the bull tilt, is the beginning of the Indian wedding
season, which runs from mid November until February. There are signs that price spikes in
gold are having a slight negative impact on retail purchases in Indian, with gold merchants
detecting a slowdown in buying on the recent spike. Once the Wedding season is in full
swing, we suspect that demand will climb enough to mitigate the impact of minor price
increases. With the US Dollar falling sharply it is also possible that the rupee will see some
benefit, thereby increasing Indian purchasing power. We cold easily see a pop in December
gold to $323 today and significantly higher if there is a confidence failure toward the US
economy, off the monthly payroll report. Gold should have an extremely tight inverse
relationship with the stock market today.
Prometheus
(11/01/2002; 06:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88607)
Sierra Madre, msg #87735

I just read your post on Antal Fekete's paper: "Borrowing Short and Lending Long." I've been very interested in Dr. Fekete's writing. It has been a great source of new ideas and challenging thoughts for me. I think he has an awful lot of tremendously worthwhile things to say. Do you have a link or a source for the referenced paper? I'd be interested in reading it.

I wonder if you have kept up with his more recent writings. He has a very intriguing series on his proposed new gold-based currency and bonds, with the real bills providing short-term funding for producers. Very interesting reading.

But there's one thing he talks about that I had trouble understanding. I don't know if you have read his article "The Economic Consequences of Alan Greenspan, The World Could be Sucked into the Blackhole of Zero Interest." In it he talks about how, as interest rates go down close to zero, the present value of debt goes to infinity. I am, of course familiar with the inverse relationship of bond prices and interest rates, and the bond equation; but I don't know enough to be sure that what he's saying is correct. It seems to me that the face value of the bond, due at maturity, would limit the upward potential of the bond price. Bond prices do, of course, rise sharply as the interest rates go down; but I don't see how they could go to infinity. Am I missing something here - or is Fekete being somewhat hyperbolic in his rhetoric?

Thanks for any light you can shed on this for me.

P




Gatekeeper
(11/01/2002; 06:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88608)
Prometheus-Antal Fekete
Please try this link:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/fekete100702.html
GratefulForGold
(11/01/2002; 07:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 88609)
Antal Fekete
http://www.gold-eagle.com/research.htmlThis link is for Gold-Eagle editorials. Click on Fekete's name and get a listing of all his articles.

Good reading!
J-Bullion
(11/01/2002; 07:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88610)
(No Subject)
11/01 08:43
U.S. Bonds Fall; Jobless Rate Rises Less Than Seen (Correct)
By Heather Bandur

U.S. Bonds Fall; Jobless Rate Rises Less Than Seen (Correct)

(Corrects September job losses to a revised 13,000 in fifth paragraph.)

New York, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell after a government report showed the unemployment rate rose less than forecast in October.

Demand for Treasuries declined as investors said the smaller- than-expected increase in the jobless rate suggests the economy isn't slowing as much as previously thought.

``The bond market is reacting to the fact that things may not be as bad as they seem,'' Drew Matus, senior U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Inc., said ahead of the report.

The benchmark 4 3/8 percent note maturing in August 2012 fell about 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 103 19/32 at 8:40 a.m. in New York. Its yield rose 4 basis points to 3.93 percent. The 2 1/8 percent note due in October 2004 lost 1/16 to 100 13/16, pushing its yield up 4 basis points to 1.71 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

After losing 13,000 jobs in September, the economy shed 5,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected a 5.8 percent unemployment rate.

The Federal Reserve, which meets Wednesday on interest rates, reduced its rate target 11 times last year -- for a total of 4.75 percentage points -- to pull the economy out of recession. The central bank has kept the target at 1.75 percent since December 2001. Many traders and investors expect the Fed will cut rates next week amid some signs of slowing growth
____________________________________________________________

I find a loss of only 5,000 jobs just a little bit hard to believe. Then again, what's the difference, it's a jobless recovery. Jobs don't matter anymore, just listen to the media.

Gold N Rule
(11/01/2002; 07:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 88611)
Unemployment Rises and Those Employed with Low Morale
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/4421408.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

snippit:



Posted on Fri, Nov. 01, 2002




Unemployment Rate Climbs Slightly

LEIGH STROPE
AP Labor Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's unemployment rate edged back up to 5.7 percent in October as businesses cut 5,000 jobs,
indicating the employment market remains uncertain for workers and companies amid the nation's bumpy recovery.

October's 5.7 percent jobless rate was up slightly from 5.6 percent in September, and jobs were cut for the second month in a
row,
the Labor Department reported Friday. Cuts came largely in manufacturing, construction and temporary employment services.
Those job losses were largely offset by gains in the service sector.




snippit:

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/4410840.htm

posted on Thu, Oct. 31, 2002


Worker morale has suffered with economy
SURVIVORS OF LAYOFFS REPORT MORE STRESS, LESS ENTHUSIASM
By Margaret Steen
Mercury News

The relentless layoffs at Silicon Valley companies are taking their toll even on those who haven't lost their jobs.

Employees' friends and colleagues are gone, but often their work is not. Although the layoff survivors are grateful to be
employed, even if they are working harder, many report dwindling enthusiasm for their jobs. Morale at many Silicon Valley tech
companies varies -- depending on the company, the department and even the individual -- from mild tension to full-blown dread.

``I would say that morale of employees -- not just at Agilent but in the valley -- is at a new low, because frankly the market
seems to be bumping along at the bottom,'' said Jean Halloran, senior vice president of human resources at Agilent Technologies
in Palo Alto. Agilent is cutting 20 percent of its employees by the end of this year.

At companies where a lot of workers have been let go, empty cubicles remind those remaining of better times.

``You can almost hear an echo in the place,'' said one worker at a local high-tech company, who asked that he not be named.

Although workers at some companies have the sense that this downturn's cutbacks are largely over, layoffs still loom at other
local companies including Sun Microsystems and Adobe Systems. And even when layoffs haven't been announced, some
workers
wonder if more cuts may come if their employer's business doesn't improve.



Waverider
(11/01/2002; 07:51:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88612)
US $ Index
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=10&t=l&a=2Is falling off into the abyss this morning.
Mr Gresham
(11/01/2002; 08:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88613)
Over the falls?
Tuning in to that INO box in the 20-second interval I get during the morning rush (beats TV, eh?). One o' these mornings, it's going to be a combination like that, and we have lift-off. One o' these mornings...
kramrich
(11/01/2002; 09:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88614)
Large volume of ammo being shipped to the Gulf.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=8&cid=578&u=/nm/20021101/ts_nm/arms_usa_gulf_dcSure looks like early 2003 is the target date for any military action against Iraq.
Gandalf the White
(11/01/2002; 09:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 88615)
A delayed answer to Sir Gold N Rule's earlier Question !
YES, Sir Gold N Rule, NEW postings are required as the "Thread" concept is not used at this Forum.
BUT, it looks as if you have managed it well !
Keep up the GREAT posting.
<;-)
Sierra Madre
(11/01/2002; 09:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88616)
Prometheus: Replying to your query today, in message #88607

Indeed, I do think that Fekete is being "hyperbolic", as you say. Obviously, nothing can go to "infinity" in this material world! I don't want to put words into his mouth, he should make clear himself what he means. However, when he speaks of "zero interest rates", it seems to me that what he must be driving at is that the situation where no one wants anything but bonds (therefore the zero, or close to zero interest rates) must be so terrible, that business can't produce any income from sales because no one is buying a thing, therefore bonds previously issued by a company become a millstone around the corporate neck - no cash to pay interest, let alone capital.

Sierra

The St. Ewagiow lives!

Cavan Man
(11/01/2002; 09:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 88617)
Buoyant US Equity Markets
It has been a strange week considering the amount of negative economic news released.

Physical gold is a teriffic value. Everybody should own as much as they can "understand". That might be 5% or 50%; depends on the level of understanding. Get thee understanding. The times; they are parlous.
sector
(11/01/2002; 10:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 88618)
UBS/Paine Webber Planning a "Gold Package"...
...that would feature shares and physicalA well informed birdie has revealed that UBS Paine Webber and likely all of UBS will offer a "Gold Package" containing "Certificates" for physical and gold shares from a basket of miners.

This birdie asked me to opine.

I informed him that the words "Allocated metal account" must appear in the boilerplate for the "package" to have any credibility.

If it does, and the owner has direct receipted, demand ownership of specific, on hand, metallic forms [coinage, bars, ingots etc.] then the offering will sell out overnight.

In fact, I told this person that UBS probably couldn't GET the gold in the first place unless it came from insiders at the Swiss National Bank.

News may have leaked out regarding the WGC's planned "Gold Product" and competitors may have jumped on the bandwagon.

The problem here is that the guys putting this thing together are Wall Street acolytes who already have a bit of baggage these days.

If you are reading these words and want gold, you already now where to get it without assistance from the WGC or UBS..
a nation of one
(11/01/2002; 11:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 88619)
present levels

Stock shares are probably dancing around at this level because they are happy with the Republicans.

Sometimes, after an election, the wine runs out.
miner49er
(11/01/2002; 11:53:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88620)
sector @ 88618 - UBS/Paine Webber product
Hi sector... Nice little tidbit of info. This makes me raise one of my general "harping" points. While many of us, who try to keep abreast of things in the PM markets, wouldn't have any interest in a product based on unallocated ownership, methinks it might be otherwise with the public in general.

I keep thinking that the average person (at least the American mindset), who is so comprehensively accustomed to "paper" ownership (and bothered with the costs and "inconveniences" of owning anything tangible, except their homes), would not recognize or care very much about the distinctions. For them, they may (imo) just move reflexively to any instrument that purports itself as "safe," bears interest commensurate with the market, and has the glitter of "gold" about it.

The general public has thus far proved not to be very discriminating in its willingness to throw gobs of money at just about anything. While bad times make people knuckle under more, this does not mean they have undergone a change of mind. I can't help but see that most people will elect to buy into the convenience of these instruments, without taking the time to learn about them anymore than they ever bothered to learn about all the other nonsense they've bought. And by the time they catch on to some of the dynamics, and perhaps then opt to obtain physical metal, they will be chasing the bus out of the station...

The other side to this is that should people in significant numbers begin to buy into these types of gold-touting, paper-based instruments, the extra fuel may assist the overall downward pressure on the price in the contract arena. This could make two general outcomes prevail: 1) the assistance at forcing the price down in paper will only highlight more quickly a divergence in genuine physical prices -- thus destabilizing the contract world more quickly; or 2) by providing the stuff for a few more rounds, enough players may hang on at the table, eeking out whatever they can from the old game, and hence prolonging the dynamic a bit longer.

In either case, the old is quickly passing away here, and for all the efforts to hold back the swell, global paradigms like deep sea currents, don't change their course until they've run them.

Anyone have any other thoughts on this?
sector
(11/01/2002; 12:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 88621)
@miner49er -- Gold "Certificates" for the Masses...
...may only be fuel for the cabal......for the moment.

I agree wholeheartedly with your realist view of unallocated new gold ownership "Products". Moreover, these things may just be more dots in the picture of rising cabal panic.

The added draw [Some suggest 1,000 tonnes per annum] from several new and upgraded gold markets around the world cannot be a welcome sight to those government shysters who it seems have been relegated to hoping and praying of late.

I particularly like the idea that in a bankrupt financial world...gold cannot be bankrupted.
Blackjack
(11/01/2002; 12:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 88622)
Inflation in Brazil will be a Lulu
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APcHysRUVQnJhemlsSao Paulo, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Within a week of helping former union leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win Brazil's presidential election, the country's second-biggest labor group called a strike to back demands for higher wages.

Forca Sindical, which represents 16 million industrial workers across Brazil, asked 120,000 auto workers to stop work today and march to the headquarters of the Sao Paulo State Industry Federation, a lobbying group for the nation's biggest companies. Forca Sindical leader Paulo Pereira da Silva said he's counting on Lula to boost wages, which have lost 10 percent of their purchasing power since 1998, when he takes office Jan. 1.

``We expect Lula to keep promises to increase the minimum wage, create jobs, recuperate salaries,'' said Pereira, many of whose members supported Lula in the election.

Brazil's trade unions, the backbone of the campaign that helped Lula win last weekend's election, are pressing the Workers' Party leader for guarantees he will honor pledges to double the minimum wage, eradicate hunger and distribute wealth more equally in Latin America's biggest country.

Investor concern that, by trying to fulfill the promises, Lula may default on Brazil's $300 billion debt has fueled a 35 percent slide in the currency since April and caused the benchmark 8 percent bond that matures in 2014 to fall 30 percent.
__________________
Lula to support doubling of wages. Here comes inflation!
If I lived in Brazil I would be buying gold with both hands.
Blackjack
(11/01/2002; 12:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 88623)
Auto sales down
DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales fell sharply for a second consecutive month in October as automakers faced a tough comparison with a record month last year and diminishing returns from incentives.

Among automakers reporting their monthly results on Friday, Ford Motor Co. F.N said its sales dropped a precipitous 34.9 percent compared with October last year, when industry-wide sales hit a record high.

The results exclude the Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo brands controlled by the world second-largest automaker, which is struggling to implement a multiyear turnaround plan after last year's loss of $5.45 billion.

Similar to the downbeat month at Ford, the Chrysler side of DaimlerChrysler AG DCX.N DCXGn.DE said its October sales fell 31 percent.
_______________
Ford and GM down over 30% in sales. More layoffs coming?
The 5.7% unemployment is a cooked number.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/01/2002; 12:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 88624)
Yes! We do offer service for the small investor, too!
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.html

The Small Order Desk

Who owns gold? Gold owners are the people who own the professional practices, the businesses, the industries, the shops, and who are the working folk that make "Western civilization" operate on a day to day basis. In most cases you will find gold owners to be among its most reliable and efficient practitioners precisely because we understand that is not the government nor through Wall Street that will insure our futures and make our lives rewarding. We are the software engineers, doctors, lawyers, school teachers, small business owners, college professors, retirees, civil servants, tradesmen, laborers and financiers alike -- all people who recognize the stability, permanence, utility, and simplicity of gold.

Friendly help for your first-time purchase and for your routine acquisitions!

Our Small Order Desk is for anyone who would like to buy less than $5,000 of gold bullion or pre-1933 international gold coins.

Items offered through this desk include the following.

Gold Bullion:
U.S. Gold Eagles (fractional sizes available)
Canadian Maple Leafs (fractional sizes available)
Austrian Philharmonics
South African Krugerrands
Gold Bars

Our full slate of pre-1933 international gold coins: (examples shown)
gold coins
TOP ROW: French Rooster (.1867 oz); French Angel (.1867 oz); Swiss Helvetia (.1867 oz); Belgian Leopold (.1867 oz)

BOTTOM ROW: British Sovereign (.2354 oz); Dutch 10 guilder (.1947 oz); and German 20 mark (.2304 oz)

We also offer U.S. Silver Eagles and Silver Canadian Maple Leafs in 100 ounce quantities or more. It's all priced right and in keeping with our long history of client service.

call for gold price quotes and information

1-800-869-5115
speak with Jonathan, ext.110

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/01/2002; 12:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 88625)
A profile on the gold German marks
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThese continue to be very popular, and to hold them is to immediately appreciate the exceptional craftsmanship of the mint those many years ago. Add some to your portfolio today!
Pizz
(11/01/2002; 13:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 88626)
Miner49er
With regards to paper products. I would agree completely that a retail unallocated gold paper product will have public appeal for all the reasons you state and probably more.

But I'm missing something in the statement that these types of products would assist in keeping the paper contract price down. If anything, it should force up the price. Long is long and buying is buying. and the type of public buying these instraments will not be ones that play the futures game.

Am I missing something?

Pizz
Ag Mountain
(11/01/2002; 13:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 88627)
missing something
Pizz,
read Aristotle's last one. There's no missing it there.
sector
(11/01/2002; 13:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88628)
Ford October Sales Fell 34% as Discounts' Lure Waned (Update1)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcK3mBSjRm9yZCBP11/01 12:19
By Bill Koenig and Joe Miller

Detroit, Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co.'s total U.S. vehicle sales fell 34 percent in October as no-interest loans and discounts drew fewer buyers into showrooms, after spurring an industry record pace a year earlier.

The world's second-largest automaker sold 287,975 vehicles, including imports and heavy trucks. The percentage change is based on a daily selling rate that adjusts for one more sales day this October than a year earlier. The total fell 31 percent without the adjustment, Ford said in a statement.

U.S. auto sales fell an estimated 26 percent in October to an annual pace of 15.8 million cars and light trucks, based on the average forecast of six analysts polled by Bloomberg News. The year-earlier month set a record with a 21.3 million annual pace, as General Motors Corp. led rivals in offering no-interest loans to revive demand after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

October was ``the second month of some atrophy in terms of customer demand,'' said IRN Inc. analyst Mike Wall, whose company forecasts vehicle plans for suppliers. ``Everybody and his mother has two or three cars now.''

General Motors is forecast to say later today that its sales fell 34 percent, the average forecast in the Bloomberg survey of analysts. The average estimate for DaimlerChrysler Ag's Chrysler unit was 23 percent.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oops! Let's see if Wall Street dances over this Boo Boo!

BTW -- There is a mini shot upward in pog as we speak�over $320 both on informer.de and bulliondesk.com ($319.90)

Perhaps somebody knows something�Friday afternoon and all. I can hear Bear Stearns now�"Our guy hit the wrong key" "He meant to hit SELL" :-)
GoldCoaster
(11/01/2002; 13:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88629)
I see
a rise of Gold from 318.70 to 320.10 in the last 10 min's.It doesnt show on Kitco yet.Looks like a real nice vertical spike on my chart.Happy weekend to all.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/01/2002; 14:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88630)
In the face of steady stock markets, today crowns our emphasis this week that gold is running on its own fundamental merits
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html

WHEN?

Take a look at the progressing upward channel on the gold graph.

spot gold price

Now's the time to add gold to your portfolio.

For portfolio guidance attuned to YOUR needs,
contact us at USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals.

1-800-869-5115

We've been serving investors for three decades.
Let us help YOU.

Sierra Madre
(11/01/2002; 14:25:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88631)
UBS selling gold colored paper.

Back in the '70s, there was great unease in Mexico about the future value of the peso - justified fears.

What happened? The Mexican banks opened "dollar accounts" for Mexicans. The middle class poured funds into these "dollar accounts", instead of opening accounts in US banks.

But, then the oil price plunged, and the banks went broke, and in order to get the foreign creditor banks off the hook, the whole banking system was nationalized; thus the creditor banks turned their claims against certain Mexican banks, into claims against the Mexican government - sovereign debt.

When the middle class wanted its dollars - there were no dollars. The middle class took a tremendous, outrageous bath.

I say this, because touting gold colored paper is the same scheme: people want another money, besides dollars? (Gold is another money). So, we open "gold accounts" for them. We are not actually promising the gold, we are only promising to pay out, upon redemption of the gold colored papers, whatever dollars the price of gold is at. (This is an even better scam, than when the Mexican banks promised delivery of dollars.)

Most people will not go to the Comex for paper gold futures. It is a scam, but a complicated scam. But a great many people, will go for gold colored paper if UBS offers it. Gold is regaining some status, and this is a way to "head 'em off at the pass." Don't let the stampede develop into a demand for physical. Offer the gold colored paper!

It will be successful. Until it fails. Which is sometime in the future, and...we are all dead in the long run.

HOWEVER, in my estimation, the demand for physical will not tail off with these offers - WGC, UBS and other competitors.

The demand for physical is already too heavy, and will not diminish under any circumstances. I agree with Bill Murphy, "We are close!" Just too, too many things wrong in the world at the same time.

That's my feeling - I may be wrong.

Good weekend to all, on a happy $320 note.

Sierra
Waverider
(11/01/2002; 14:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88632)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlN'er to be forgotten....and a happy weekend to all!
Black Blade
(11/01/2002; 14:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88633)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Bill Bonner (DailyReckoning):

Autos and houses. If it weren't for these two industries, the economy would be in serious trouble.The economy grew last quarter, 3.1%. But it took a lot of more than $100 billion of refinancings each month...and auto sales gimmicks that have knocked about $1,000 off of the average Honda. "The strength in third-quarter consumer spending was entirely in vehicle sales," said Bruce Steinberg at Merrill Lynch. "Unfortunately, it will be a lot weaker in the fourth." Why? Because home refinancings are plummeting - down 24% in the most recent week.

Black Blade: No argument here. And what about today's market action? What a wild day for economic data, amusing reaction by Wall Street, the currency and precious metals markets. Wow!!! It really was fun and yet many are still oblivious. I think that we are finally entering the end game. It should be "Interesting".


mas
(11/01/2002; 15:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88634)
Getting Close Again
Euro/Gold = 321.52
USD/Gold = 320.10
USD/Euro = .9965

What happens after they meet? Will the Gold price run up in both as FOA said it would, (one trying to catch the other for different reasons)?

Got Gold?
Boilermaker
(11/01/2002; 15:16:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88635)
Happy Days Are Here Again
Here's an old favorite of mine that speaks of the SM we saw today:

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Whistling through the graveyard of the future.

TGIF

Boilermaker
Operative
(11/01/2002; 15:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88636)
Ya'll Come
It's Friday !! Loved that last minute in your face move by gold this afternoon. Our little bull calf is showing some spunk of late it appears to me. Hard to picture it with a lot more weight, strong legs, and a set of horns, but time will provide a Golden Bull soon enough.

Wish I could invite all of you out to the farm this weekend. Have had a 5 gallon pot of chili "slo cookin" all day and have plenty to share. Probably burn a wood pile from this summer where I cleared some land for a larger garden. Yep, wish we could all meet and spend some time talking face to face as the embers from the bon fire keep us warm on a cool evening. Perhaps one day the Knights and Ladies of the table will all gather.

I am gratefull for another week of learning. Thanks to all the newer posters for sharing insights. Happy weekend to everyone!!
Cavan Man
(11/01/2002; 15:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88637)
Sierra Madre
Dear Sir: Astute observation (ANOTHER paper money); I was thinking the same thought.
Cavan Man
(11/01/2002; 15:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 88638)
Hello USAGOLD
Is poor Cavan Man smarter than James Dines?In Mr. Dines' latest circular, he talks about a "devastating economic storm" , a "tidal wave" in the form of a "massive currency crisis" ("sweeping the globe") etc., etc., etc. He talks about the "mega forces" ready to, "blow the lid off gold". Later in the show, his writer goes on to say, "Mr. Dines is not recommending gold bullion and coins".

My question is, if things are that bad, and I believe they are; if the global monetary crisis is as bad as he suggests (says 401K's and retirement accounts could be toast); why in the heck would anyone want more leverage in a bad (USD) product? Are 100 pounds of rotten bananas better than ten pounds? Is their strength in numbers.

If POG could "spike to $5000as he suggests, how is the guy who hold 1000 ounces @$271 gonna get hurt?

Does he realize what a gold price of $5000 would do to his financial paradigm?
Waverider
(11/01/2002; 16:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 88639)
Kuwait sealing off large part of Iraq border area
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/world/1643394Snippit:
"Kuwait's government is sealing off nearly a quarter of the country -- including the area near the Iraqi border -- to the public as U.S. and Kuwaiti soldiers train ahead of a possible showdown with President Saddam Hussein. Kuwaiti authorities say the move, which takes effect Saturday, is intended to safeguard the public during ongoing military exercises in the country's northwestern desert. The U.S. officials would not comment on Kuwait's decision to seal off the country's northwest, a move that bars the public from more than 1,600 square miles of Kuwait's total land area of about 6,900 square miles."

Waverider: I hear a crescendo of war drums.
Sierra Madre
(11/01/2002; 16:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88640)
Boilermaker: About "Happy Days Are Here Again!"

I saw a very pleasant vieo with that music. Funny thing, though, it was in German and filmed during the Weimar era in Germany.

In German, if I recall correctly, the title was "Wochenende und Sonnentag" - "Weekend and Sunday" (?)

It showed so many happy people enjoying their weekend, playing, bicycling, dancing, swimming, picnics, etc. Lots of little kids - I had to think about those little kids: how many of them survived the German Holocaust - of dead Germans - in the horrible war that was at their doorstep?

Can't hear that music without thinking of them.

Are we, too, perhaps facing a similar catastrophe?

Sierra
Belgian
(11/01/2002; 16:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88641)
Iran and the ME
Iran is in the process of "privitazing" it's oil and gas industry. Favorite partner is the Belgian/French, TotalFina
oil company (40%). Ian and Quatar discovered the biggest gas-bubble ever and it is estimated to serve the globe's gas needs for the coming 65 year ! A lot of pipelines are planned. Iran / Iraq / Saudi Arabia are (re)uniting with different charm-operations ! The ME is (re)organizing itself and favors "political" solutions (the euroland way)for settling differences, instead of frontal confrontation. Apparently, it has not much to do with a gold-friendly, monetary union, currency (euro) imbedded in an oil/gold/euro-dinar-concept ! But that's because this process is so much different than what we have known for quite some time now.
Iraq's gold-repatriation, Iran's interest in the gold dinar, China and Russia, inviting gold-diggers, and the interest in the EMU model, publicly stated, do suggest strongly that something is definitely changing on a larger scale than presently visible.

When the dollar finally throws the towel into the ring, the paper-frenzy will shift into a rush on valuable tangibles.
Precious, basic, resources in combination with a solid, exchangable, currency.

Intrigants and manipulators with not so respectful intentions, will be ignored, increasingly. Surely not a smooth, overnight, process.

The general public, soon, suffering from a prolonged paper-hang-over, isn't in the capacity of anticipating the coming flight into tangibles. They need convincing evidence that things are dramatically/fundamentally, changing. Only those wise, anticipative, giants, know how things (mass-behavior)will evolve. All those dervative "products" are ersatz (fake). It's like drinking, poisonious methanol (causes blindness), instead of degustating genuine ethanol.

The globe is more and more into the ban of "political economy" ! Originally a contradictio in terminis. But not anymore. This new reality is there to stay for quite some time. And, indeed, a rather complex notion. The dollar and the euro are the pillars of 2, completely different "political economies". Both (�-$) evolve geo-politically, whilst pretending, having nothing
to do with each other ! POG's behavior, illustrates this.

A similar process is happening with the POO. Euroland is suggesting to the ME what is the most appropiate POO ! Today, we all (producer + producer) feel quite comfortable with 25$. But one day those dollar settlements will have to compete with euro settlement for the barril. And then the euro-oil-gold liason will be an outspoken fact. A recent, French televised discussion on oil/POO, was very suggestive in that direction. And it is not because "Gold" isn't mentioned within these eluberations, that it isn't of the utmost importance to it.
Let me put it somewhat simplier : Euroland knows the dollar very well...but the dollar block goes on underestimating the euro. My 2 cents, amateur-observer's conclusion on the present events.
Paper Avalanche
(11/01/2002; 17:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88642)
Where is gold trading on Friday night?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=0I was at the top of the web page and noted that gold is showing a price of $320. The closing price this afternoon was 318 and something I think. I went to the web site with the graph (see link above) to see a nice spike.

Any ideas?

PA
Paper Avalanche
(11/01/2002; 17:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88643)
I may be confused
The chart indicates that the spike occured at 1p this afternoon. However, I believe this to be a FOREX price. The futures price on bloomberg indicates a gold price less than 320. Are not futures prices typically higher (representing future delivery) than spot FOREX prices?

Maybe I should quit drinking beer at this point.

Screw it, it's Friday.

Take care.

PA
miner49er
(11/01/2002; 18:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 88644)
Pizz @ 88626 - the "Package" ...

Hey Pizz, how's it going? Regarding your inquiry, let's look for a moment at what we've been dealt...

First, I'm going on the hypothetical product roughly as described (brief as it was) -- a "Gold Package" containing "Certificates" for physical and gold shares from a basket of miners.

This gives me as the "packager" great leeway in laying the terms. We don't know what the mix will be -- or even the objective: current income or capital gains or preservation of capital? Likely, given the climate there will be an emphasis on safe harbor stuff, with some regular dividend.

The come-on for these "packages" will be an additional potential for significant capital gains through the leverage of gold mining shares. They can wrap these "packages" up anyway they like. Structure a safe senior tranche mostly with gold accounts (UNallocated of course), with some exposure to the NA giants and a steady (but small) regular dividend yield. Buffer this wth various riskier subordinations all the way down to a walk-on-the-wild-side offering potential for giddy gains in 100% exotic juniors and explorers (no regular dividend here, though...).

Plus, there is absolutely NOTHING in the above statement that indicates that futures and the panoply of derivatives can't or won't be part of the portfolio. As you well know EVERY prospectus has the disclaimer stating that the fund may use and invest and hold positions in derivative products from time to time. It won't be any different here.

In all likelihood, if my take on the public's portfolio preferences is accurate, they will walk in the door uttering "safe harbor," but will walk out all pumped up by the intoxicating prospects of leverage that the mining shares purport to bring (plus a little octane booster in futures/options). If the "package" is structured, there will be no lack of funds with which to cushion the top. People, beguiled by the safety of paper-gold ownership, not at all understanding the dynamics, and champing at the bit to quickly recoup the vast amounts of lost capital from their previous ventures, will easily populate the riskier lower tranches.

The deceptive thing is that people almost instinctively know that "gold is safe." The fault in their reasoning will be in equating these paper instruments with physically held gold itself. Like sector says, "gold won't go bankrupt." Understanding the riskless aspect of a liability-less asset vs. the risk of any other asset, to the degree and proportion of its inherent liabilities, IS ESSENTIAL.

Most people DO NOT get this. They've never owned any asset without liabilities, and since most consider a savings account as riskless, demonstrate that they have still not been roused from the slumber of generations of unquestioned relative stability.

Another trait of people that leads to their undoing is that they want everything, now, for free. If you can convince people that your product (or "package") can approximate this performance, you will have their money. It will sound so good to people to know they have "exposure to gold's upside" through convincing leverage arguments, but will also "control" just enough gold to give the warm-and-fuzzies of "owning" a "secure" asset.

Even if you wanted 100% gold certificates (all in UNallocated accounts, of course), you would be cheating yourself. If this is really what you wanted, you may do better and be more economic to just invest in futures or call options. After all, your unallocated holding is really nothing more than an undated long futures position with a twist, in that instead of putting up margin, you have paid for it up front in toto.

So now, regarding your questions: is long, long; and is buying, buying? Is is, is?

In light of the foregoing, there is every reason now to apply the template of Aristotle's #87615 at this point. In our hypothetical structured instrument, there are all sorts of ways to mix this cocktail, but the common ingredient will be the sale of short gold positions, which will result in a continued and beneficial effect to the seller brought on by the downward pressure on the price caused by this dynamic.

This does not mean the price must go down. Witness the very controlled ascent taking place right now. It would be a stretch to conclude that if ALL contracts were tomorrow cancelled, and ALL gold transactions had to take place on the spot, over the barrel, that gold would not INSTANTLY become unpriceable, and would vanish from sight. Plenty bid; no ask. While only conjecture, I am sure most reasoned analysis would concur with this pretty closely, thereby demonstrating the unrealistic pricing brought on by the inflation of "paper gold."

So, in the more optimistic assessments (and the preferred view) of the gold world for most investors, the ideal conditions would be to keep the status quo, while effectively adjusting the price up a bit. Their ideal world would be a steady but gradual rise to some reasonable new benchmark for gold; say $600? This would prove a win-win, no? Longs would double on gold and 10xx their leveraged holdings, and the gradual ascent provides more time to establish the trend to investors, so more and more people buy and bid up their shares. Shorts would have time to adjust their books, and entice enough new cash into this grand new "bull market" by marketing these long-gold front "packages" and "products" to give them the cushion they need, and to balance out any losses. Everyone would still want contract trading to drive price discovery, and they would still want everything denominated in US dollars.

This type of control will be brought about by heavy selling. Quickly the overview: 1) most longs are in it for the cash hit; 2) shorts know this and sell with just cash margin; 3) if the price rises dangerously, shorts can go, "boo" and announce intent to deliver on some amount they can tolerate (should their "bluff" be called); 4) most longs don't have the funds to actually "take" delivery, so they close out their positions (the lucky few at the head of the line making some profit, perhaps); 5) the stampede to the exits causes the price to collapse; and 6) start all over again. 6a) As long as there is enough real gold working its way through the system to keep confidence, the cycle can continue.

Finally exeunt to number 7). The exit strategy is given plenty of treatment by FOA and Aristotle, among others. Basically, demonstrate good faith efforts at making good on your obligations, and then shrug your shoulders and say, "I quit," and walk away with relatively little harm compared to the gadgillions you've pocketed along the way. Nothing scientific about this other than a good mixture of history and human behavioral observations.

This is old stuff, but the gesture made in my earlier comment was that this kind of activity may give an extended lease on life to this type of game, if enough fresh funds come in, and other things work out (nothing, let us say... too "discontinuous"). I touched on this a bit in part of an earlier post (#87833) as well, and briefly mentioned another consideration that may come into play in a crisis -- capital flow restrictions...

Now remember, the purveyors of this stuff can genuinely believe they have a win-win "package" for you (and them!). They can well believe that gold should rise (but just a little), and that they have a handle on it by understanding the dynamics of paper. In such a setting they believe they can handsomely profit from rising mines, or at least good volatility there. They have people's money, because they have convinced them of the safe-ness of the instrument, and people are happy with their cash return because the instrument is keeping up with the controlled revaluing of gold upward. Everybody's theoretically going to be happy!!

The heart and soul of the issue is that this "package" still avoids true physical gold as much as possible. It's paper inflation possibilities allow everyone to buy and the price to go down (or at most go up under strict control).

So in answer to your questions: Yes, long is long, and buying is buying. But almost, isn't...

cheers,
miner
michellec
(11/01/2002; 18:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88645)
Gold Trading on a Friday Night
I checked out a few places and found the following:

The Bouillion Desk 319.50/320.00. A tick of 320.10 @ 15:46 with the last tick fo 319.50 @ 17:05

TRASY 318.60/319.10 real time

GLD.FX1 319.75 @ 02:11

Perhaps Shanghai will keep the weekends to come lively?
kludge
(11/01/2002; 18:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88646)
Looks like 5-year round trip...
...for both the gold price and the SM.

Guess you can look at this as buying too early, or selling too early - depending on your frame of reference. Either way, an investment in gold or the SM (NYSE composite, Nasdaq indexes) would have left you about in the same position today as then.

What's this say for the next 5 years? I'll leave that to minds with more economical wisdom than mine to ponder. Looks like those that "got safe" (bonds/gold) in '99 (pre-Y2K), and stayed patient, were rewarded. Who'd have thought Y2K would save the day?

The archives from this day in 1998 are short, but interesting.
Aristotle
(11/01/2002; 18:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 88647)
Miner
Brilliant.

Gold. --- Ari

(Hey, I'm running late enough as is.)
miner49er
(11/01/2002; 18:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88648)
Ari - thanks... / Sierra - 88631 UBS - good stuff...!
miner
Paper Avalanche
(11/01/2002; 19:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 88649)
To die on your feet or your knees - that is the question
http://calltodecision.com/Civil%20War.htmlI cannot help but marvel at the attitude among those in my generation that all the "bad things" happened in the past and will never be repeated.

I would strongly encourage those that have the opportunity to take 10-15 minutes to review the link that I have supplied above.

The older I become, the more I realize that some things are worth taking a stand to defend - even if against seemingly immeasurable odds.

Best regards,
Paper Avalanche
R Powell
(11/01/2002; 19:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88650)
Pizz
Frustrating, no?
Genoo
(11/01/2002; 19:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 88651)
Ruck
Just watched Rukheyser..first time in a few dozen moons..his guest was a Frenchman, Jean-Marie somebody, who amoung other things manages a very successful gold fund...Soc-Gen I believe, tho I am not familiar with any type of fund, gold or otherwise.

Terribly interesting to me was the fact that, first that he had someone on who invested in gold and second that there was not one question asked about gold by either the host or by any of the three esteemed panelists...although the name of the gold fund was repeatedly flashed under Jean Marie's name.

My conclusion: Very strange to this boy. One way to view it is that Ruck is running scared...followed by his brood..if you ever wondered whether any of them were able/willing to think for themselves.
Genoo
(11/01/2002; 20:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88652)
WATCH THE EURO
Today the Euro rose sharply..even though European economies are weak generally and German banks specifically are said to be 'on the ropes'.

Does this mean that the US economy and the US dollar are even weaker??? If so gold will automatically rise with the Euro as the US dollar falls. All we can do is wait and watch expectanty.
Old Yeller
(11/02/2002; 02:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88653)
Our $ 2.5 trillion game of risk
http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?ItemID=13799
Why do Bush and O'Neill consistently and continually
lie to the American people on this topic?

The trade and C/A deficit does not matter,because
America is such a fine place to invest one's
"money".


"If you are an American multi-national with
feet planted in many countries,it may be
true that US indebtedness will have no consequences.
But for homebound citizens,who's fate depends solely
on America's balance sheet,the debt obligations are real."

Perhaps this is why.
GratefulForGold
(11/02/2002; 02:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88654)
??
Pizz, et al., your posts re the "gold package" somehow triggered these thoughts in me:

I am sorry for the plight of J6P. But there is a part of me that wonders about the psyche that believes that it can survive with all resources in tact without paying attention!

From my perspective, I have noticed that:

When you are heavily indebted with no perceived way out...you "tune out" any constructive (different) action because of the feeling that it wouldn't make a difference. So, for our general consumer (heavily indebted public)...all they can think of is credit/debt. Unless the bankruptcy laws have changed radically, I suspect for most of them the idea of filing bankruptcy (especially in states where homesteads aren't touched in bankruptcy) looms in the back of their minds as the final solution to their problems. With this as the possible solution, I would see them as careening towards maxing out all credit first. (Two "boosts" to this: perhaps a better holiday season for the retailers; and maybe they'll find the two (that I know of) precious metals dealers on the internet that accept credit cards, and actually buy some physical!)

While they would cringe at being compared to J6P, I have found that most "professionals" in the US suffer from what could be an even greater blindness. They're quite proud of the fiat they earn in their profession. But, they expect the preservation (nay, the increased value) of their assets to either happen naturally or through those other "paid professionals" to whom they turn over that responsibility. Yes, they can argue that they are using all of their time and energy MAKING money and don't have the time and energy left to figure out what to do with it. That's why they hire the "professionals." Well, that will float only so far in my book. Beyond that, it's just the typical cop-out of it being someone else's fault. (Which is probably one of the US's worst flaws � we're going to need 15 legs for all of our Achilles� heels).

Excuse me, but to me it is complete IDIOCY to have assets and to not be paying attention to the preservation of them! What the hell are all of these people working their asses off for (making all those deals, picking up those gigantic paychecks/commissions, etc.)? To totally ignore what happens to the money/fiat that's left over after bills are paid becomes a peculiar form of insanity.

OK, so I'm being overly critical. People have their lives to live and families (?) to enjoy. Excuse me again, but my perception is that most people in this category don't enjoy, participate with or minimally enjoy their families. So, their heads (thought processes) are tied up elsewhere. So, why shouldn't they be "tied up" with paying attention to what the hell is happening in the world and taking care of their families, their assets, and their lives by taking responsibility?

That means, to me, education. God forbid. Unfortunately, in the US, it means somehow propelling yourself out of complacency. Easier said than done. I think we all suffer from the "I learned this formula and I want it to work" syndrome. The "absorption" process we call education only happens at certain moments in most peoples� lives...the rest is lived trying to make whatever we expended the energy to learn work for us. Unfortunately, it's outdated formulae, but what the hell.

I guess I am losing sympathy for the American public. To expect life to everlastingly bow to and provide for one's wishes, comfort, gluttony(?), etc. seems to me to be supreme arrogance. I am left wondering when it will "kick in" that we are in dire straits and how many will choose some constructive (for themselves and their families) action...and how many will find blame elsewhere and seek revenge/retaliation/recompense/whatever from those that "done them wrong."

Think I'll go have another glass of wine?
Black Blade
(11/02/2002; 04:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88655)
Tight U.S. gas supply points to firm winter prices
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1643246
Snippit:

NEW YORK - While a slow-growth economy typically spells weak natural gas demand, analysts don't expect consumers to get much of a break on their heating bills this winter. Dwindling output from the nation's gas fields and a surge in demand from a fleet of new, gas-fired power plants are expected to offset whatever downward pressure the economy is exerting on gas prices, energy analysts are warning. Despite near record high inventories built up for the peak demand heating season, analysts said collapsing prices in 2001 led to a sharp drop in drilling, setting the stage for the current tight supply-demand balance. "The energy industry in general is hurting because of a cash crunch, and that's kept drilling relatively soft. These prices will bring some (drilling) action, but the question is when," said Kevin Petak, director at consultants Energy and Environmental Analysis in Virginia. Analysts, moreover, do not expect any relief from Canadian supplies and a stock drawdown this winter could lead to a tight supply situation next year, as production continues to falter while consumer and industrial demand compete with the need to fuel a new generation of power plants. While high gas prices inevitably trim usage and prompt those who can to switch to cheaper oil, analysts still expect strong gains in power generation demand, noting almost all power plant capacity installed since 2001, some 100,000 megawatts, are fired only with gas. Given a normal winter this year, analysts said they expect near record stocks to be drawn down to more normal levels, paving the way for some stiff competition next year to rebuild storage, fire more new power plants and fuel an industrial sector rebound as the economy recovers.


Black Blade: Where have we heard this before? Virtually all new power generation is NG fired, drilling activity has fallen sharply and new production cannot keep up with demand, and a normal winter will drawdown inventories rapidly. With nearly 300 new power plants planned over the next couple of years we might be looking at a long term energy crisis. We could see much higher energy prices this winter and into early next year.

mas
(11/02/2002; 05:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 88656)
From Financial Sense - Good Point!
The true colors of it all. Paper is paper.....

Corporate Moon Shot � The $3 Trillion Bomb
As I was reading through the news, one article on Bloomberg hit me right over the head!� "The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed that U.S. companies be required to disclose an estimated $3 trillion in off-balance sheet debt, a reaction to Enron Corp.'s collapse." The off-balance sheet debt is carried by SPE's (special-purpose entities), which are usually partnerships, trusts or corporations controlled by the parent company. The article went on to say, "These SPE's help corporations get more favorable terms on loans while keeping the debts off their books." HELLO!!! Don't you think investors would want to know how much debt their companies are holding? We're talking $3 trillion. To put it into perspective the article said, "By comparison, the size of the U.S. corporate bond market is about $2.3 trillion, according to Lehman credit indexes." By admission of the SEC, the hidden debts of Corporate America exceed the entire U.S. corporate bond market.

We flippantly throw around these big numbers of billions and trillions. Bear with me to get a minds-eye for what a trillion dollars looks like. A fresh bundle of a hundred, one-dollar bills is roughly a half-inch thick. With 24 bundles you get a stack one-foot tall. A mile is 5,280 ft. x $2400/ft. = $12,672,000 per mile. Now take $1,000,000,000,000 divided by $12,672,000 = 78,914 miles. A stack of one trillion dollars would be 78,914 miles high! Stack up $3 trillion in hidden corporate debt, and those paper-thin dollars would get you to the moon from here! That's a BIG number to be excluded from the balance sheets.
Black Blade
(11/02/2002; 08:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 88657)
Market Wrap Up � Michael Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Corporate Moon Shot � The $3 Trillion Bomb

As I was reading through the news, one article on Bloomberg hit me right over the head! "The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed that U.S. companies be required to disclose an estimated $3 trillion in off-balance sheet debt, a reaction to Enron Corp.'s collapse." The off-balance sheet debt is carried by SPE's (special-purpose entities), which are usually partnerships, trusts or corporations controlled by the parent company. The article went on to say, "These SPE's help corporations get more favorable terms on loans while keeping the debts off their books." HELLO!!! Don't you think investors would want to know how much debt their companies are holding? We're talking $3 trillion. To put it into perspective the article said, "By comparison, the size of the U.S. corporate bond market is about $2.3 trillion, according to Lehman credit indexes." By admission of the SEC, the hidden debts of Corporate America exceed the entire U.S. corporate bond market.

Lower Interest Rates are Friendly for Gold

A lower interest rate environment would provide less incentive for what's left of the gold carry trade, reduce the contango (forward prices on futures contracts) making it less attractive to sell future supply, and create a greater need for a hedge against inflation. The best reason to take a hard look at precious metals is for the tremendous strength in the fundamentals. Gold demand exceeds mine supply by roughly 40% and the rest of the world is resurrecting gold as a primary monetary asset. Why would the European Union give the Euro a 15% gold backing if it was just another commodity? You could buy gold at today's prices twenty years ago, and a 1980 dollar is worth about 46 cents today. To do the math, an ounce of gold in the early 80's at $318 should cost $691 today. The adjustment will happen; it's just a matter of when.


Black Blade: Think that the "off the books" debt is bad? Wait until corporations are forced to deal with the under funded "pension funds" and the expensing of stock options for starters. Oh yeah, it's going to get very ugly very soon. And when it does it will be a rocket ride for Gold and Silver while the excrement hits the proverbial bladed wind device.

Black Blade
(11/02/2002; 08:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88658)
Bush: New Jobless Figures 'A Problem'
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=RIMYL4GKF02SYCRBAE0CFFA?type=businessnews&StoryID=1667993
Snippit:

HARRISBURG, Pa. (Reuters) - President Bush said on Friday the fact the U.S. economy lost jobs last month was "a problem" but that the foundation for growth was strong. "Today, it looks like some more Americans are looking for work and that's a problem," Bush told a Republican political rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Black Blade: No kidding! Figured that out all by himself did he? Hmmm�

Black Blade
(11/02/2002; 08:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 88659)
Consumers cut back spending
http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/01/news/economy/income.ap/index.htm
Economic data show largest decline in spending in 10 months despite rise in personal income.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Cautious consumers, shaken by the turbulent stock market and concerned over a possible war with Iraq, cut back on their spending in September by 0.4 percent, the largest decline in 10 months.


Black Blade: There will be a lot of empty Christmas stockings and a lot of open space around the Xmas tree (if there is a tree this year). The toys of choice this year will probably be an empty cardboard box to play "homeless street person dwelling" and an empty shopping cart to play "Bag Lady".

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/02/2002; 09:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 88660)
Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Genoo
(11/02/2002; 10:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 88661)
Ah ...the bigger picture..thank you again Black Blade


see Black Blade #88657
see Mas #88656
see Genoo #88571

The article in Bloomberg by Michael Hartman gets fitted in to the bigger picture.
Genoo
(11/02/2002; 10:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88662)
Worst case scenario




Sorry that I am unable to offer the link.

In Barron's Online there is an article on Elliot Wave theorist Robert Prechter, titled Bear-Market Genius:

"Some commentators think that the sharp rally since Oct. 9 could be the early stage of a new bull market and the harbinger of economic recovery. But Prechter, a master at finding dark clouds beneath every silver lining, argues that bottoms aren't made when the dividend yield on the Dow Industrials is just 2.1%. The yield tends to rise to above 6% at moderate bottoms. In 1929 it soared to over 15%. At true market bottoms, he explains, fearful investors demand money up front from management rather than its promise.

Even more controversial is Prechter's assertion that the sinking stock market will lead to a depression. In fact, he asserts that a lethal deflationary slide in the economy has already started despite mainstream economists' assertions that the current tepid recovery will gather strength next year.

Signs abound, he avers. The Producer Price index has been going down for the past 12 months as has the implicit price deflator for non-financial corporations. Commercial and industrial loan volume has been shrinking for the past two years. Junk bonds are defaulting at a record rate. U.S. mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are soaring. Prechter fears that the U.S. is on the verge of falling into the same contractionary abyss that swallowed up Japan in the 'Nineties and recently claimed Argentina and Brazil as victims.

As Prudential chief investment strategist Edward Yardeni argued in Barron's last week, deflation doesn't have to be a malignant force as long as corporations can more than offset downward price pressure on their products with strong productivity gains ("Deja Vu All Over Again," Oct. 28). Then companies can maintain their workforce and afford to pay them higher real wages.

But Prechter anticipates that the process will be far more lethal. Weakening pricing power will spur companies to cut employees in an attempt to rein in payroll costs and maintain profit margins. As the jobless rate rises, consumer confidence and spending will wilt, in turn triggering yet more layoffs. Productivity, or output per man hour, will likely continue to improve in this environment, but it will come as a result of layoffs and fearful exertions of the surviving workforce rather than technological innovation.

"This was the very reason economist Joseph Schumpeter pointed out that 'the Depression acted as an efficiency expert" and boosted productivity by 20% between 1929 and 1932," Prechter explains.

Deflation is above all a psychological phenomenon, and therefore, according to Prechter, not ultimately reversible by either stimulative fiscal policy or monetary policy. And it typically first shows up in the stock market. That's where social mood shifts always evince themselves first.

He elaborates: "You can sell stocks or other financial instruments in a matter of seconds while it takes months for, say, a company to change from an expansion to a contraction mode. The latter is like turning around an ocean liner. It takes time."

Mild stock market declines spawn recessions more often than not. In fact, the stock market has had a better predictive record than other leading indicators of economic activity. Overinvestment in capital goods only exacerbates the situation. Full-fledged stock market crashes have always preceded serious economic downturns. In large part, that's because panic selling snuffs personal wealth and destroys collateral values, which can beget further liquidation. The contagion then spreads to other asset classes and then to the real economy of prices and wages and corporate sales and profits, Prechter adds.

Lethal collapse

What will make the coming economic collapse so lethal, says Prechter, is the mania that has likewise taken place in the U.S. credit market over the past two decades. Total U.S. debt -- household, corporate and government borrowing -- has exploded from under 140% to nearly 300% of GDP in the last 20 years. The previous peak was the 264% level reached after the 'Twenties economic boom.

Like then, the shift from credit expansion to credit contraction this time around figures to catch everyone in its undertow: over-leveraged homeowners, free-spending state and local governments and even corporations with average debt loads, Prechter claims. This should be especially true these days when so many loans are either backed by dubious collateral value or finance consumption rather than productive enterprise.

Happily, chances are that Prechter will be proved wrong this time as he has so many times before in the last decade. We've only had two full-fledged depressions in the last 200 years, so they are rare occurrences indeed. The post-2000 bear market has already been notable in both its severity and length. The current rally seems to have legs.

But the unimaginable does sometimes come to pass, as the events of Sept. 11 so clearly illustrated. So, perhaps there's some value in considering a worst case scenario. A little paranoia, after all, can sometimes be an investor's best defense."

Comment: Food for thought


Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 13:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88663)
@Genoo
Thanks for the Barron's post. Prechter has been wrong in the past
but his analysis is a good read. The article ends with "this rally seems to have legs".

Is it over?
Are we back to the boom times so quickly?

I really don't know if Greenspan will cut next week.
If he does it might signal that reflation is the goal.
Burn that dollar - the only path to avoid Japan style
deflation. Time for goldman and silverdude.

Boilermaker
(11/02/2002; 13:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88664)
Rust Belt Real Estate Market
Here's another data point for the housing market. My daughter sells RE for a large firm in the Cleveland, OH area and she was doing great until mid-summer when the buyers dried up. Plenty of listings but few offers. She deals mostly in the blue collar neighborhood markets but she said that the Cleveland East Side high-end market went down early this year. Low IR's are mostly going to re-fi's. This is a manufacturing area economy and it has been suffering from offshore competition/overvalued $ for many years.

The manufacturing (productive) sector is being strangled and the service sector will follow when the overvalued US$ goes down. Then, the manufacturing sector will be the first to recover, hopefully in my lifetime.

Cheers,

Boilermaker
Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 13:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88665)
Market up but dollar down
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcPmnBa8UmF0ZSBDGoldman, Sachs & Co. yesterday cut its fourth-quarter growth forecast to 0.5 percent from 2 percent and its first quarter 2003 estimate to 1.5 percent from 2 percent because of a weakening economy, said William Dudley, the firm's chief U.S. economist.

``The risk of recession is high, the Fed is probably going to have to cut rates again and we can't see how the outlook for the dollar is going to improve in the near term,'' said Tim Mazanec, senior foreign exchange strategist at Investors Bank & Trust Co. Mazanec said the dollar could weaken to $1.05 against the euro in the next few weeks.

Economists at 20 of the 22 primary dealers, which trade directly with the Fed, expect policy makers will lower their overnight, interbank target at least a quarter point to 1.50 percent on Wednesday. A month ago, just six had forecast a cut.
_______________
Mr Softie may help the market on Monday but what
amazes me is that in this recent rally, while the market
has been up, the dollar has been falling.


Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 13:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 88666)
Puplava's 5th element in place for bull market?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcPxhxPbVS5TLiBUNew York, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The government's sale of $40 billion of debt before congressional elections and a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week will probably cost taxpayers.

Some traders said they may demand higher yields to buy the five- and 10-year notes, which match August's record sales.

``It's not comfortable'' bidding on these sales, ``but it's a fact of life and we have to deal with it,'' said John Roberts, head of government bond trading at Barclays Capital Inc., one of the 22 firms, known as primary dealers, obligated to bid at Treasury auctions. ``It's going to cost the Treasury more to sell that $40 billion.''

Maybe $20 million a year more. In pre-auction trading, traders are demanding yields on the notes at least 5 basis points above those on existing securities. Five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, equal $20 million in interest payments a year on $40 billion of debt.

While the new notes yield more in part because their maturities will be three months longer than those on the existing securities, traders said they have to protect their investments from surprises in the week: Will the Republicans win a majority in Congress, which may lead to more spending and debt sales, and will the Fed cut rates?

Some analysts said government spending may increase, leading to higher yields, regardless of which party wins Congress as politicians seek to prepare the military for an attack on Iraq and bolster a slowing economic expansion.

``Treasury supply is weighing on everyone's mind,'' said Sharon Lee Stark, a fixed-income strategist at Legg Mason Wood Walker Inc. in Baltimore. ``We have a lot of supply coming, as well as an election. No matter what, we will be faced with higher deficits, which means even more supply.''
______________
Falling bond prices and rising yields coming into place?
Investors will demand higher yields to buy all this fed debt.
Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 13:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 88667)
Money flows from Trim tabs
http://www.trimtabs.com/news/mutual/latest.htmlMoney still leaving equity funds.
Gold showed small gains.
Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 14:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88668)
Trim Tabs: short rally
http://www.trimtabs.com/news/liquidity/latest.html"We had been opining that corporate buying was a floor under the stock market at near these levels given what had happened both in September 2001 and this past July. However, since the pace of corporate buying has slowed each time the market has made new lows, we are no longer as certain.

That slowdown in buying says that there is less future buying power available to rescue the market from the next plunge to new lows. Add to that gloomy scenario two negative liquidity facts. First, unlike August, October and November are prime months for selling new offerings. Second, margin debt has not been dropping as fast as the market; therefore the next big downturn could be even more severe than in July and September."
Mr Gresham
(11/02/2002; 14:07:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88669)
GratefulForGold
You hit an original insightful point in just about each of your paragraphs at 2a.m. today (I'll have what you're having -- later, maybe ;)

They're going to just walk into the bk "out" with one eye on their excuses, have enough of a "someone else" to blame, hope to be in enough company to defiantly push away any sense of shame (and I'm not saying I advocate either), and form a "Homeowners' Union" to forestall repos.

Sympathy? When I consider how long it took each of us here to unlearn our "paper" education, I realize how deep it went. The education we were all products of will have its "day in court" (bankruptcy court) and then we will all have to figure out what real things we each know how to make and do.

Just a thought (original or not?) of mine last week: Most people work in offices. Most of the things produced in offices (insurance comes to mind) are not things we individually want to "buy" for our own enjoyment and quality of life, but we are forced to by the structural circumstances around us. In a cash crunch we will let a lot of our office "purchases" lapse. I'll bet a lot of the office jobs are going away, soon.
Usul
(11/02/2002; 15:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88670)
Economic Recovery Winding Down
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54531-2002Nov1.html"U.S. economic growth is close to stalling, analysts said yesterday..."

Real data is in a spectacular disconnect with the stock market lemmings who have been bidding up the indices recently. How will one little shaving off an already low Fed rate save the economy, when 11 or so previous cuts have not? And is not the dollar demanding higher rates of return to prevent the holders of dollar instruments dropping them?
Usul
(11/02/2002; 15:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 88671)
Get Ready to Moan over 2003 Earnings
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021102/column_stocks_week_1.html"Don't look for a major recovery in 2003. Economists are already lowering their sights for next year's U.S. growth, worried about flagging consumer confidence and a slowdown in manufacturing..."
The Invisible Hand
(11/02/2002; 15:38:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88672)
Something for this Forum to think about
From Genoo's Worst case scenario:
A little paranoia, after all, can sometimes be an investor's best defense
What me paranoid?
a nation of one
(11/02/2002; 15:49:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88673)
saturday's contribution

At least the following ten things seem approximately assured.

1. When the interest rate is zero, the FED will probably not lower interest rates further.
2. When there isn't enough money to pay off any of the American public's debts, there is a high probability the debts will not be repaid.
3. When the dollar falls to one tenth its present value, a pound of cheap oatmeal will cost about fifteen dollars. When it's on sale, it might be as low as twelve fifty.
4. If a bureaucrat's lips are moving, she's either lying, or she's with Bill Clinton.
5. When Bolivia slides off into the Atlantic ocean, developers will claim it for underwater apartment projects.
6. When one ounce of gold comes to be worth twelve hundred dollars, twelve hundred dollars worth of gold will weigh just one ounce.
7. JPM will never go belly up. Instead, the English language will be changed to protect the company. The word 'undesolvable' will be used instead of the word 'insolvent.' This will make a big difference in how the company is perceived, and, therefore, its creditors will give up.
8. The U.S. Gubmit will lollygag along, until some wise guy named Attila the Canadian decides to come down and invade New York. Fortunately, he will never make it to Atlanta, on account of he never heard of it.
9. Geroge Busch is probably the best ruler any nation in the world ever had. Unfortunately, he never ran for any public office, and the close resemblence of his name to that of someone already appointed to high office by the U.S. Supreme Court, is not close enough to make a real difference.
10. The next president of the United States will have the word 'govern' in his name. And his first name will be George. Either his last name will have the prefix 'Mc' before it, like a hamburger, or the president we have now will change his name to comply with the prediction.

These are according to an astrology chart which I just in the last five minutes found in the middle of the street.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(11/02/2002; 17:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88674)
Most Literate Link I have EVER SEEN.
http://www.scotlandonsunday.comUp from the thros of Shakespearian demise, on a quest to turn over the well sunken stone, do we aspire to greatness by following what is higher? Or, do we seek a numbing solace by surrounding ourselves with the mundane and the profane?
Cytek
(11/02/2002; 17:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88675)
A divergence when comparing the DOW versus European indexes
From Bob Chapman .

We are seeing the largest divergence figures ever recorded on our comparison model of the DOW versus European indexes. The figure is minus 915, when deducted from the DOW it gives a true DOW figure of 7,454. Just after the 11/4/02 elections we expect a quick fall to 7,200 � 7,400. If the war begins in early December, as we expect it will and JP Morgan Chase is either indicted for criminal fraud or is sued for civil fraud, the market should then break down to 5500 to 6450. This has been a long time coming due to the market manipulation and gold suppression of the Working Group on Financial Markets, the Plunge Protection Team, and their partners in crime Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citicorp and AIG. This should be breakdown time for the DOW and breakout time for gold.

Cytek
GratefulForGold
(11/02/2002; 17:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 88676)
a nation of one #88673

LOL. I was reading along, enjoying your post as something that came from your apparently fertile and weird mind. At the end, I find it's from some strange street-walking (or should I say, walking in strange streets) you've been doing today. (Cm�on, you CAN take the credit, even if your other self wrote it last night and then took to the streets in a blaze of paper. Do you remember what you did last night?) Anyway, you do get some points in my book by taking the time to type it for us!

Definitely need humor in my world! Thanks.

Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 18:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 88677)
Mr Greenspan : Please send cash!
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1670856The crystal-ball readers' estimates for 2003 are too high, Galbraith says, though their numbers are not as ridiculously optimistic in 2001 when they put earnings growth at 9 percent. Their estimates turned out to be the biggest earnings miss ever as earnings crashed by a record 17 percent.

Galbraith says people must recognize the economy's important role in driving corporate results. This strong relationship should again hold this time around, he says.

Corporate profits this year are expected to inch up by a measly 1.6 percent, virtually no growth, Galbraith says, now that the economy is expanding by an unimpressive 3.1 percent.

Don't look for a major recovery in 2003. Economists are already lowering their sights for next year's U.S. growth, worried about flagging consumer confidence and a slowdown in manufacturing.

A quarterly survey by Reuters released this week showed economists expect the gross domestic product will grow by only 3.3 percent in 2003, which is down from expectations for an increase of 3.8 percent in a sampling this summer. The survey was conducted before news of the plunge in consumer confidence in October. Forecasts for 2003 ranged from a low 2.0 percent to a high of 4.8 percent.

The International Monetary Fund painted an even gloomier picture in September, forecasting U.S. growth next year will edge up by only 2.6 percent. The risks were weighted toward further weakness because of the threat of a war against Iraq, it said.
Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 18:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88678)
Islamist Party set to win election in Turkey
http://www.sundayherald.com/28902Disappointment with most of the existing parties stems mainly from recent massive lay-offs and bankruptcies in the private sector.

'We are hungry,' shouted an unidentified woman in front of television cameras while attending a rally of the Youth Party of businessman Cem Uzan. He himself is at the centre of controversy for the alleged failure to repay credit his mobile phone company Telsim received from cellular producers Motorola and Nokia.

He promises to 'kick the IMF out of the country', distribute free text books in schools and reduce tax rates. Many Turkish analysts, astonished by the party's unexpected rise, believe it's a result of Uzan's campaign mantra of jobs and money.

Latest opinion polls predict the party may gather up to 30% of votes in today's ballot, enabling them to set up a one-party government with a dominant majority in parliament.

'There are parties that hide their true intentions,' said Ecevit last Thursday. 'The AKP are the first to be mentioned in this regard.'

Ecevit has hinted in the past that these 'true intentions' mean replacement of the secular regime with an Islamic one.
________________
This could affect Iraq war strategy if new government
is not so friendly to western interests.
Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 18:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88679)
Chapman on Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman110402.htmlDon Murphy, a technical analyst with Merrill Lynch speaking on CNBC says, "My view is that I like gold as an investment. I'm inclined to think that gold is making a secular low, a buy of a generation!" He went on to say, "To be conservative, I'm going to say $450 to $550, but my thought is that gold could go back and challenge the levels we saw in 1980-81 at $850 an ounce!"
____________
Good read
Blackjack
(11/02/2002; 21:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 88680)
Lula update
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/10/29/192747.shtmlLula, a friend of Castro's for 30 years, will start out slowly, says Menges, putting on a bright face until he consolidates power over the giant country's secret police and military, while securing what he wants in the way of aid from the International Monetary Fund.

Then, watch out, advises Menges, who notes that already � shortly after his election � Lula has started "sporting a little red star in his lapel."
________
Now sporting a little red star!
steady
(11/02/2002; 22:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 88681)
how to implament the gold dinar silver dirham currency!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/feketendx.htmlM E M O R A N D U M

TO: The Right Honorable Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister, Malaysia
FROM: J. Douglas Bowey and Antal E. Fekete
SUBJECT: Islamic Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham Initiative
DATE: 1 November 2002

______________________________________________________________________________________

Authors of the Islamic Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham initiative are to be congratulated for their ingenuity, courage, and timing on designing and instituting an international monetary system based on hard money. The following points may be useful to further improve the efficiency of this bold initiative inaugurated by Malaysia.



No Monetary Role for Gold and Silver without Free Coinage. The Gold Dinar and the Silver Dirham will not be money and can't have any monetary role until and unless at least one government officially opens the Mint to gold (silver). This means "free coinage of gold (silver)," that is to say, the Mint must stand ready to convert gold into Gold Dinars (and silver into Silver Dirhams) in unlimited quantities free of charge, on the account of anyone tendering the right amount and fineness of gold (silver). In the absence of this commitment, the Dinar and the Dirham, just like the U.S. Gold and Silver Eagles, will remain souvenirs and keepsakes, having no monetary role to play whatsoever. They will not enter into monetary circulation, and will not be used for accounting purposes. This is one of the critical points missed by virtually all hard-money advocates today. It goes without saying that all taxes, duties, imposts, restrictions on the import and export of gold and silver must be abolished and declared unconstitutional.



First Step: Open the Mint to Silver. As the IMF has imposed a ban on monetizing gold (but not silver), for tactical reasons it might be advisable to test first by declaring the Mint open to silver only. This would have the effect of attracting capital in the form of silver to countries with a Mint open to silver. A bill market would spring to life more or less spontaneously. It would then finance the production and distribution of crude oil and other important commodities in terms of the Dirham. There is no need unnecessarily to affront and offend the U.S. by declaring the dollar ineligible for billing crude oil deliveries. However, opening the Mint to silver would be just as effective in puncturing the balloon of dollar-hegemony. The dollar would start fading away as the trading currency of the world.



Second Step: Open the Mint to Gold. Once the principle of billing in Silver Dirhams is accepted, as a second step, the Mints can be declared open to gold as well. IMF fulminations notwithstanding, Islamic and other countries can go safely ahead with their gold and silver circulation and bill markets trading bills payable in gold and silver, because the denial of IMF dollar-credits can no longer hurt them. They will be able to attract all the capital they want in terms of gold and silver.



Third Step: Finance the Trade in Crude Oil with Gold Bills. A gold bill is just an invoice evidencing the sale of goods in urgent demand (such as crude oil, grain and other agricultural commodities, copper, etc.) by the producer to the distributor. It has to be "accepted" by the latter, must mature in 91 days or less without the possibility of extension, and it must be payable in Dinars at maturity. The bill is a "self-liquidating" instrument. This means that, at maturity, the bill is paid out of the proceeds of the disposal of the underlying merchandise by the distributor. A spontaneous trading in gold bills will spring up. In the bill market, outstanding gold bills are bought and sold at a discount, which depends on the number of days left to maturity and the discount rate. The discount rate varies inversely with the "propensity to spend." The greater the demand for the underlying merchandise, the lower is the discount rate. Sellers of bills are those who have salable merchandise to ship; buyers of bills are those who have short-term liquid funds to invest. The discount rate may move up or down in such a way as to facilitate the clearing of outstanding bills in the market. The discount rate should not be mistaken for a rate of interest, as explained in (9) below.



Making the Banks Irrelevant. The beauty of the plan is that it can bypass any and all banks that may be suspected of affiliation with or allegiance to the big multinational dollar banks. Banks are irrelevant to the bill market trading gold bills. There is no need to establish new dinar banks and train personnel either; that would take years. The spontaneous bill market trading of dinar bills would be a more than adequate replacement for financing domestic and world trade.



Attracting Capital from Abroad. Here is the mechanism whereby a country that has opened its Mint to gold can attract capital. The Central Bank stands ready to rediscount gold dinar bills at the posted rediscount rate. A higher rediscount rate will attract gold to the Mint resulting in a capital inflow. A lower rediscount rate will expel gold from the country, allowing capital to seek higher returns abroad. Foreigners will send in gold in response to a higher rediscount rate as they want to hold the most liquid short-term instrument: the gold bill of exchange.



Wages Must Be Payable in Gold Dinar and/or in Silver Dirham. In order to facilitate dinar and dirham circulation, employers must be requested to pay wages in Dinar or Dirham. Employers get Dinars and Dirhams by selling their gold bills in the bill market, or by rediscounting them at the Central Bank. The workers will spend their dinars and dirhams on consumer goods. The circle is now complete: the consumer's coin is paying the bill at maturity, by which time the underlying consumer good is sold in exchange for the dinar or dirham.



Bimetallism Would Be a Mistake. Do not fix the bimetallic ratio between the Gold Dinar and the Silver Dirham. Let the market find and adjust the proper ratio, whenever necessary, without government intervention.



Islamic Law Banning Usury and Interest. It must be clear that there is no lending or borrowing, nor interest paying and taking, involved in bill trading. The function of the bill market is not lending; it is clearing. The producer bills the distributor for merchandise shipped, with "terms: 91 days net." The important point to grasp is that the producer is not a lender; and the distributor is not a borrower. The term 91 days net is part of the contract. Hardly any distributor pays cash to the producer for merchandise shipped for resale. Bills circulate spontaneously before maturity; the producer may use them to pay his suppliers, who will be glad to take the bills in payment for the supplies shipped. Alternatively, the producer may discount his bills in the bill market for cash. The transaction has nothing to do with lending and borrowing at interest. Discounting bills is part of the process of clearing. In more detail, discounting is an essential part of the trade in consumer goods. The amount of discount is of the same character as the markup on merchandise representing overhead and profit of the merchant, allowable charges under Islamic Law. The amount of discount depends (1) on the number of days the bill has to run before maturity; and (2) on the discount rate. The discount rate is not an interest rate. The former reflects the propensity to consume; the latter the propensity to save, the relation in either case being inverse. That is, the higher the propensity the lower is the rate and vice versa.


Note that gold distribution and the bill market are just the two sides of the same coin: neither could stand without the support of the other. In order to make the gold dinar an instrument of world trade, there must be a complementary bill market.


We would be pleased to answer any questions derived from this MEMORANDUM, or to act as consultants and/or advisors to Governments that are courageous enough to implement a plan to open the mint to silver and/or gold.


J. DOUGLAS BOWEY is a Private Merchant Banker living in Los Angeles, California. He has traveled extensively and lived in the Islamic world. Bowey's specialty is strategic alliance finance.


ANTAL E. FEKETE is Professor Emeritus (Mathematics), Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada. He is a world-class economist specializing in monetary science and history. He lives between St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, and Budapest, Hungary. He has written extensively. A portion of his writings may be seen on the website www.goldisfreedom.com.


J. DOUGLAS BOWEY and ANTAL E. FEKETE have recently joined forces to create an opportunity. Together they will now begin to offer this opportunity (methodology) to "select" Central Banks/Governments. This methodology allows Central Banks/Governments to continually increase their gold and silver reserve holdings, with minimal risk, without the use of "financial engineering," and while retaining full physical control of those reserves.


BOWEY and/or FEKETE may be contacted through:

J. Douglas Bowey and Associates
Beverly Hills, CA
Email: jdbanda@aol.com


the above link gets u to Antal E. Fekete works on gold eagle step 3 above comes from this essay BILLS OF THE GOLDSMITH whic can be accesed thru the link above!
steady
(11/02/2002; 23:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 88682)
gold and silver honest money for honest people
http://community.webshots.com/photo/39393408/39393800PgVcBufree gold ...... open the mint
my new motto
Mr Gresham
(11/02/2002; 23:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88683)
GfG
Seeing a nation of one, and GR2, side-by-side -- you've arrived in time to see the best at work. Coax them a wee bit, and there'll be entertainment for the months of waiting.

Ah, but then, there were once Giants, and here was Valhalla...
Boilermaker
(11/03/2002; 09:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88685)
Fairy Tale for Goldbugs
http://www-dept.usm.edu/~engdept/jack/h.htmAfter reading about the $3 trillion dollar pile of fiat that reached to the moon (courtesy of mas yesterday) I thought about that old fairytale, Jack and the Beanstalk. For anyone like me who's head swims whenever I try to follow the golden shell games described by Ari and others the simple tale of Jack vs. the Giant is a refreshing reminder that the Giant will be vanquished and gold restored to its rightful place.

The link is for a 1820 version of the tale. Recommended reading for a quiet Sunday.
Genoo
(11/03/2002; 09:09:49 MDT - Msg ID: 88686)
Sorry..here is the correct message..Genoo
Genoo (11/03/02; 09:02:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 88684)
Scam/ Double Scam/ Corruption/ Conflict of Interest... and More
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/03/business/yourmoney/03OXLE.html?pagewanted=3

Gretchen Morgenson takes the blinders off some of the dynamics to do with the Sarbanes-Oxley bill.

"To many investors, Michael G. Oxley is the Ohio Republican who put partisan politics aside and helped write legislation meant to restore investor confidence after the worst spate of corporate misconduct since the 1929 crash. "We will not tolerate those whose greed and deception damage not only our financial marketplace but also our good will," Mr. Oxley said as President Bush signed the Sarbanes-Oxley bill into law in July. "Not just money, but character, counts in America," he added.

"But in fact, Mr. Oxley, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and one of the best friends that the industry has in Washington, has worked hard to keep it from facing new regulation intended to protect investors. Early in the process, he opposed the legislation that would become Sarbanes-Oxley, preferring a softer approach to accounting overhaul. And he shrugged off the conflicts of interest among Wall Street analysts until that issue became unavoidable....

Most recently, he opposed the nomination of a strong investor advocate to an accounting oversight board created by the legislation he helped to write. Instead, Mr. Oxley supported William H. Webster, whose selection for the post is now the subject of multiple investigations...

Mr. Oxley's role as reformer, according to people who have dealt with him over the years, is decidedly out of character. As an industry champion, he and his political action committee receive large contributions from Wall Street firms, banks and the accounting profession. He and his staff also travel widely at the expense of financial services companies and their lobbyists....

"Mike Oxley is one of the nicest members of Congress," said Arthur Levitt, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and author of "Take On the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Don't Want You to Know." "But everyone in the securities industry recognizes him as a stalwart friend who will stand in the way of almost every investor reform. He was uncomfortable with just about every pro-investor thing we did."

With Harvey L. Pitt, the current S.E.C. chairman, under heavy fire to resign after a series of political gaffes, and his agency in disarray, some investors are growing concerned that their desires for additional overhaul are not being recognized in Washington.

Now Mr. Oxley came to help write an overhaul bill that he had initially opposed is a familiar story to Washington watchers. Like many other politicians, Mr. Oxley sensed that after WorldCom's collapse in an accounting scandal, Washington had to do something to protect shareholders from corporate and accounting chicanery...

Now the consensus has shifted back to a belief that corporate malfeasance was limited to a handful of companies, said Charles Lewis, executive director of the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit research group that monitors money in politics. In such a climate, Mr. Oxley felt comfortable working to scuttle the nomination of John H. Biggs, former chairman of the giant TIAA-CREF pension fund, to the accounting oversight board. Mr. Webster, who got the job, is now under a cloud for his membership on the audit committee of U.S. Technologies, a company facing accusations of fraud....

"Webster is the tough cop that the job demands," Mr. Oxley said when Mr. Webster was appointed on Oct. 25.

On Friday, Mr. Oxley reiterated his support. He declined to comment for this article, but a spokeswoman said that Mr. Oxley "has a long record of accomplishment on behalf of individual investors."

But Mr. Lewis of the Center for Public Integrity said: "Millions of Americans have lost their nest eggs or seen their retirement savings diminished, and we're getting political rhetoric from Washington that it's a few bad apples. The idea that after all this Washington did a collective yawn is nothing short of offensive. The only people they seem to be talking to are the people who funnel the money to their campaigns or who don't want to be regulated."


Financial corporations and their lobbyists also help pay for trips for Mr. Oxley, his wife, Pat, and James Conzelman, his chief of staff, to destinations like Cape Cod, Edinburgh, Stockholm, Venice and Rome. These trips are sponsored by nonprofit organizations like the Invest to Compete Alliance, a group that represents accounting firms; and the Ripon Educational Fund, a Republican public policy organization. As long as they are related to work, such trips are allowed under government ethics rules, which bar gifts worth more than $50 to lawmakers. The total cost of these trips was $43,000 for Mr. and Mrs. Oxley and Mr. Conzelman since 2000...

"Groups like that are often used to bring members of the industry together in very soothing surroundings so the members can hear the industry's concern," said Larry Noble, a former general counsel of the Federal Election Commission and executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a group that tracks political spending. "The fundamental problem here is these members of Congress work for all of us and what these contributions and special arrangements provide is for a select group to get in and get the ears of the members and tell them what's important to them. It's not access that the rest of us have."



Comment: Right..and I believe in the tooth fairy. Thank God for Eliot Spitzer.




a nation of one
(11/03/2002; 11:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88687)
to: GratefulForGold (11/02/02; 17:47:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 88676)

Speaking of Attila the Canadian, I learned recently that Attila the Hun had a brother, Attila the Hunny, whose hobby was to like unmarried women, many of whom later married other men and established families of their own, in part because of their friendships with Mr. Hunny. And of course we all remember about Attila's younger brother, Untilla, who got sent home from the lootings because he was always late; their sister, Scintilla; and Antilles, their cousins' mother, who, by suspicious coincidence, lived on an island chain of the same name.

At one point, Attila the Hun was able to demand -and get- more than 2,000 pounds of gold each year, in addition to a settlement of 6,000 pounds of gold for alleged arrears, just so he wouldn't invade Rome. [This is confirmed by the Encyclopaedia Brittanica, 1970, and one other source.]
Cometose
(11/03/2002; 11:52:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88688)
Friday's 24 hour GOLD Chart @Kitco
www.kitco.comIf the chart were a heart monitor , it would show the heartbeat of a healthy patient...

the patient will surely rise ....for good cause...

The shapers of monetary policy should have followed the credo the physicians in this country must ascribe to
DO NO HARM.......

People who seek Power usually do it because they are not apart of THE REAL POWER...

THE LOVE OF MONEY is usually driving those that seek power...

It has been referred to as the ROOT of all evil....

Under that comes BRIBERY which has been legislated into being by our greedy lawmakers and is now referred to as LOBBYING.....

TOday , being what it is , I'm going to share some things the BIBLE says about BRIBERY which is very germain to the WHY OF THE eoncomic condition our condition is in ......and also points to the showdown coming between GOLD and the DOLLAR.. Mr OXLEY for who he is got his priorities right when he stated CHARACTER is Important in America ...right behind MONEY .

Proverbs 17:23 A wicked man taketh a gift out of the bosom to pervert the ways of judgment.
Proverbs 29:4 The king by judgment establisheth the land: but he that recieveth gifts overthoweth it.



He who hath the GOLD makes the RULES....that may be a bad omen in the future and a monument to what could have been had our rulers not been driven by GREED>...The future of the US in the world's eyes will be a reflection of it's past as told by Eastern Anti American influences...
This will also determine a lessening influence The US may have because of global peoples skewed perception of America... Reading this website has been an eyeopener .....and what I have learned in part has made me sick to my stocmach...Pride cometh before the fall and HOW GREAT IS THAT FALL GOING TO BE???????????
Blackjack
(11/03/2002; 14:10:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88689)
Islamist party landslide in Turkey
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&StoryID=1672805"I think the strength of AKP will scare some people," Marco Annunziata of Deutsche Bank in London said. "I am positively impressed by the fact that they seem to realize there's only one way forward for Turkey, which is continuing the pro-Western stance and continuing with the economic reforms."

"I have two concerns. One is they are somewhat new to power and this will make people a bit nervous. Two, perhaps the strength of their victory could lead them to be a bit more daring than otherwise," he said.

The AKP, formed only a year ago from the "modern" wing of a party banned for Islamist subversion, is itself a coalition of forces. Its program and leading figures appear committed to secularist principles but there are surely some elements that hanker still to introduce religious tenets in politics and law.

That balance could be put to the test over time, if AKP assumes office alone with a large majority.

Erdogan warned his supporters against any brash actions, at the same time sending a message of reassurance to the powerful military. He even made a reference to secularist state founder Ataturk -- something that would raise eyebrows among rivals.

"My particular request, especially to AKP friends, is this: Let absolutely no one take actions that would upset public order, endanger security or upset anyone," he told a news conference.

Turkey's first Islamist-led government was driven from power in 1997 after a year by an army-led campaign. Few expect that sort of turmoil after Sunday's vote. The military would wait and see what an AKP government would do in practice.
_______________
More problems for IMF. Like the rest of the world they hate the
IMF policies!

Blackjack
(11/03/2002; 14:25:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88690)
8 Nations meet to start Islamic Finance Group
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2393685.stmCentral to the concept of Islamic banking is Islam's prohibition of Usury.

In effect this means that charging interest, or making loans with the promise of a fixed return is forbidden.

So is making excess profit.

Banks must instead take a share of the profit or loss made by those they lend to.

Supporters say this makes them less prone to lend rashly and less ready to demand their money back when times get tough for borrowers.

Nor can Islamic funds invest in products that would be considered unethical by Muslims; alcohol, gambling, pornography, tobacco or weapons.

Those behind the launch of the IFSB hope that by promoting good practice and stability in the sector it will give Muslims the confidence to invest their wealth in a way that reflects Islamic values.
_____________________
Major news story on BBC page. No mention of Gold or Silver
but Malaysia is the driving force here apparently. The group
wants to implement Islamic values in financial dealings.
One of these not mentioned is the Zakat.It must be paid in Gold Dinars and Silver Dirhams. No paper money is allowed for Zakat!
NEMO me impune lacessit
(11/03/2002; 14:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88691)
To a nation of one
Is it perhaps that Scintilla who converted , to her brothers discontent, and became Scintilla the Nun.

NEMO
Belgian
(11/03/2002; 15:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88692)
@ steady # 88681
Thanks steady for posting the A. Fekete memorandum on gold/dinar - silver/dirrham.

But...
Another's thoughts seem much simplier to me as to FREE Gold and replace the previous unworkable gold-standard :
"Free" Gold, being money (not metal), "physically" traded under *new*, national or international agreements.
Free, physical, Gold, totally "independant" from the paper contract business. When no paper-contract can lead to any obligation of physical delivery/settlement...the paper trade will soon be abondened ? Mould this into a law, before or after the paper market explosion.

For this to happen, we need a currency (euro) that associates itself with Gold in a very simple way : an euro as good as Gold ! Let the public make its own choice between the euro currency or physical Gold as a store of wealth. Let the public decide if and when they trust the euro-management or the physical Gold certainty. A FREE choice, guaranteed with honest, protective, and above all, *courageous", laws !
And, indeed, the introduction of gold-coins as legal tender are a step into that direction.

The currency that would bring up that courage to be judged by the public with Free Gold, is imvho, an unmistakable winner. Currencies (US$), shouldn't fight the Gold force, but join it.

Oil producers (ME) could make a start with this by *openly* demanding Gold in exchange for reasonably priced crude oil !
It suffice that only one single country with significant oil-reserves, should start doing this. Others would follow immediately.

But intuitively we feel that a catastrophic financial collapse must take place as to let monetary disorder flow into a new Gold order. I do think we are on our way to it, though in the very early stage of it. We are still in the complacent mood that we can *print* our way out of it. The swelling confetti-mountains, haven't resulted in any kind of price-inflation. Compressed Confetti bricks, still fill the dyke holes. A good Billion of Eastern workers still provide the West with real goods and services in exchange for printed paper confetti, and in this way, helping the West, holding back on price-inflation within a murderous competition arena. This systemic defense has its limits.

In the Eastern part of our globe, paper-gold, is worthless.
The East wants the physical Gold in possession and might force our Western papergold contract business out of fashion. What will happen to LBMA, when the UK finally joins EMU and LBMA falls under Euroland's jurisdiction !?
The same might happen with the crude-oil paper market, 30 to 40 times bigger than the underlying physical oil market ?

Make your paper bets, but you can never claim physical settlement for it ! As any goldmine share cannot be used to claim physical Gold. Let Gold be exchangeble for a Gold friendly currency that has the courage to set Gold FREE !


Thanks steady, for having brought Fekete and Co, on the forum.
Cavan Man
(11/03/2002; 16:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88693)
ANOTHER line in the sand
DUBAI, Nov. 3 � Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. regional ally, said on Sunday it would not allow the United States to use its facilities for any attack against neighboring Iraq, even if a strike was sanctioned by the United Nations.
Aristotle
(11/03/2002; 17:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88694)
Belgian
Brilliant.

Gold. --- Ari

(Still on the run... only time to say, "Thanks!")
Nibelung
(11/03/2002; 17:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88695)
Huns/Gold Tribute
Around 430, Rua the Hun made a treaty with the Eastern Romans (the Empire had split in the mid-200s), by which the Huns would be paid a tribute of 350 pounds of gold per year (Priscus, cited in Thompson, E.A. "The Huns," p.177). In 435, under joint leadership of Attila and his brother Bleda, the tribute paid to the Huns by the East Romans was increased to 700 pounds per year (Priscus). After a major battle in 443 (in the Chersonesus), still under leadership of Attila and Bleda, a new new treaty was signed by the Eastern Roman Emperor Anatolius. Under its terms, "...6,000 pounds of were to be paid in a lump sum as arrears of tribute, and the annual payment trebled, that is, the Huns now received 2,100 pounds of gold every year (Thompson, E.A. "The Huns," p.177) About 2 years later, Attila murdered his brother Bleda.

Earlier, about 408, a major band of Huns under the leader Uldin invaded the Eastern Empire. At this time, "...we find the Huns selling off their prisoners at 1 (gold) solidus a head. In 435, they had the right of disposing of their Roman prisoners at 8 solidi a head, and this was raised to 12 solidi in 443 (Ibid., ISBN: 0-631-15899-5)
Nibelung
(11/03/2002; 18:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 88696)
Huns/Goths/Gold
Attila died about 453. Within 20 years of his death, Hunnic power structures had collapsed. As Hunnic power collapsed, Gothic groups, which had played a subordinate role in Hunnic power for about 50 years, moved to the fore and probably absorbed most of the Huns' gold in the process.

They also began receiving payment in gold from the Eastern Roman Empire:
"...by 470 the Thracian Goths held a deeply priviliged position within the east Roman state...In 473, for instance, their pay and ration allowances allowances were together worth 2,000pounds of of gold per annum (Malchus fr. 2, p.408. 22ff): seven times the subsidy extracted by the Pannonian Goths in the early 460s (Heather, Peter "The Goths" Blackwell, 1998, p. 153)
steady
(11/03/2002; 18:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 88697)
gold duh what else is there to post about!
belgian ok i try to repond to your heavyweight posts !

first regarding this

For this to happen, we need a currency (euro) that associates itself with Gold in a very simple way : an euro as good as Gold ! Let the public make its own choice between the euro currency or physical Gold as a store of wealth. Let the public decide if and when they trust the euro-management or the physical Gold certainty. A FREE choice, guaranteed with honest, protective, and above all, *courageous", laws !
And, indeed, the introduction of gold-coins as legal tender are a step into that direction.

i agree there there should be a free choice for people to make. personally i think gold woul dwin hands down. but they have to have a large supply of gold and silver prior to this implamentation as A. Fekete points out there has to be a complete circle for gold to circulate as money ie workers paid in it and suppliers using it to sell products and recievers using ot to buy prodcuts and again how do u make change for gold? silver!
here is another link to support your theory about a dual monetary system at first
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/tlaga072902.html


next u post
Oil producers (ME) could make a start with this by *openly* demanding Gold in exchange for reasonably priced crude oil !
It suffice that only one single country with significant oil-reserves, should start doing this. Others would follow immediately.

for this to happen well are not the major oil producer s somehow tied into the imf? so they have to devise an exit startegy from the imf before they can do that. i think the first step is accumulation of gold lots of it . second say they sell there oil in gold how do they make change for that gold? silver so silver needs to be involved someway somehow?

next u post
But intuitively we feel that a catastrophic financial collapse must take place as to let monetary disorder flow into a new Gold order. I do think we are on our way to it, though in the very early stage of it. We are still in the complacent mood that we can *print* our way out of it. The swelling confetti-mountains, haven't resulted in any kind of price-inflation. Compressed Confetti bricks, still fill the dyke holes. A good Billion of Eastern workers still provide the West with real goods and services in exchange for printed paper confetti, and in this way, helping the West, holding back on price-inflation within a murderous competition arena. This systemic defense has its limits.
yes especially when the asian consciousness allready views silver and gold as money. and along the same line what happens when they start converting ever more and more paper dolars of all curruencies asain and us$ into gold /silver. especially the central bansks. even if it is temporary to force the papermarkets underwater and hasten there demise.

i didnt know id need a degree in financial banking /derivaties to understand gold heck i dint know what i was getting myself into but so far so good.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!
free gold.... open the mint!
Cytek
(11/03/2002; 18:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 88698)
Global Banking Collapse Will Shape Post-Nov. 5 World
http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2002/2002_40-52/2002-42/this_wk.htmlGoing into the Nov. 5 mid-term elections in the United States, we are facing the worst financial collapse within living memory, and an Administration in the thrall of Chickenhawks determined to take the country and the world into disastrous perpetual war, starting with Iraq. For the time being, the war drive is jammed up in the United Nations, thanks to the French and the Russians, who have so far rejected the most provocative features of the war resolution submitted to the UN Security Council by the United States and Great Britain.

As Lyndon LaRouche said in his Oct. 19 webcast, a dramatic change will occur as a result of the Nov. 5 elections. LaRouche emphasized that "we don't know exactly what's going to happen, except we know this Nov. 5 election will be a phase-shift in internal [U.S.] politics, and therefore, in international politics."

What is fundamentally driving this situation, is the onrushing global financial collapse�the most dramatic feature of which, as has emerged into consciousness of those watching the situation, is the simultaneous collapse of the banking systems of the United States, Germany, and Japan. As Richard Freeman reported in last week's issue of EIW:

"Never in post-World War II memory, have the banking-financial systems of the three major economic powers�the United States, Japan, and Germany�experienced such crises simultaneously. Combined, these banking systems possess between two-fifths and two-thirds of the assets of the world's banking system. The breakdown conjuncture of these nations' interconnected bank systems defines a crisis point of the world financial system...."

Cytek
Liberty Head
(11/03/2002; 18:49:53 MDT - Msg ID: 88699)
Huns, Gold and Corn

The death of Attila caused a terrible grief and mourning among Huns. However, he had reached to the eternal state in the memories of the nations. According to the rumours, he was put within three coffins one within the other. The first coffin was made of gold that was shining like the sun since he was the sun of Huns. The second coffin was made of silver that was shining like the comae of the comet since he was a comet that was rarely seen. The third coffin was made of steel that was tempered twice since he was as strong as steel.
Upon the organisation of a great mourning ceremony, this three-layered coffin that was made of gold, silver and steel was buried in one of the isles of Tisza River together with the weapons and valuable materials of Attila. This little isle was digged in depth and then, the riverbed was diverted and the river ran over it. Therefore, nobody would be able to find his tomb and plunder it. Actually, it has not been found yet.

With the passing of Attila, the remaining Huns centralized the meat of their empire to a village sandwiched between the Alps, near Bamberg. To this day they are known as "The Bamberger Huns". Doh!
Cytek
(11/03/2002; 19:57:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88700)
Major Banks ... Failures loom
http://stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5673538&t=0&all=0 leID=0Another good article on the up and coming banking collapse. Here's the highlights.
Fact #1
From the beginning of the year to the recent trough, Morgan Stanley lost a staggering 64% of its total market cap � or $24 billion ... FleetBoston lost 46.6% or $18.2 billion ... and Citigroup shares fell 33%, for a $75 billion loss.

This collapse is too big and too swift to write off as merely the whims of speculators. It is driven by fundamental forces that threaten to impact every aspect of your financial life.

Fact #2
Massive layoffs are the second warning bell of banking troubles ahead. It means that bank managers themselves are finally recognizing the decline is not a flash in the pan. It is fundamental, long term, and spreading rapidly. That's why ...
As BlackBlade posts,"things are looking pretty grim".

Fact #3
Revenues Are Plunging!

Fact #4
Commercial Banks Now Face Staggering Loan Losses

J.P. Morgan Chase, the nation's largest corporate lender, announced in September that its losses from bad loans in the third quarter would more than quadruple � rocketing up from $302 million in the second quarter to $1.4 billion in the third!

Fact #5
The Credit Card Bubble Is About To Bust!
Next on the horizon: All major US banks will get slammed with escalating losses from the largest credit card bubble of all time!

Fact #6
391 US Banks Embroiled In Derivatives With A Face Value Of Over $50 Trillion!
Right now, J.P. Morgan Chase has total derivative positions in excess of $25 trillion � or more than 2.5 times the entire gross domestic product of the United States. Bank of America has $10 trillion; Citibank, $7.2 trillion; Wachovia Bank, $2.1 trillion; and Wells Fargo, $790 billion. All told, 391 US banks have derivatives with a total "notional" or face value in excess of $50 trillion!
Here's What To Watch Out For In The Next Several Months

Fact #7
Two weeks ago Freddie Mac told the banks that deal with them that all re-financing loans starting November 15th will not allow any home equity loans unless the owner has at least 50% equity. If the home owner has less than 50% there will be a point system based on their equity position.

A major bank failure could be the catalyst for a meltdown of the US stock market. Here's how:

First, expect more corporate failures and bankruptcies, including multi-billion-dollar companies in business for decades.

Second, each bankruptcy will cause a whole new series of serious losses for banks.

Third, in anticipation of those losses, expect the shares of major banks to plunge another 50% or more.

Fourth, the collapse in bank stocks will merely be the vanguard for a similar collapse in the Dow and the Nasdaq.

Finally, don't be surprised to see some major bank failures, fueled by a derivatives disaster or by corporate bankruptcies.

When that happens, all bets are off!

Cytek
All i can say is keep accumulating physical Gold and Silver while you can.



GratefulForGold
(11/03/2002; 21:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 88701)
Mr Gresham #88669

I appreciate your response to my 2:00 a.m. PUI (posting under the influence).

I agree with you about more office workers and the paper they produce being subject to even more layoffs. As an ex-office worker ("ex" definitely by choice!), I'm thinking about looking for some part time (freelance) office work here in the area where I recently moved. Fortunately (or unfortunately?) I'll be working with attorneys. I am trusting that they've rigged the game enough to where some of them will stay in business!

Speaking of layoffs, I've wondered for ages whether the federal government ever lays off people? Or do they just keep adding to the rosters? In that vein, I heard a blip on TV tonight about the current administration wanting to privatize some of its jobs as a cost saving measure. What puzzles me...is that they're talking about the ARMY. I think they were speaking of all types of "office" jobs, etc. Now, I asked myself, why would they start with the Army instead of Social Security, Medicare, IRS, etc.?

Maybe there's a rational explanation, like the Army employing far more non-military personnel than other sectors of the government? But my semi-suspicious mind couldn't help thinking of the current administration's ties to the defense industry (a la Carlyle Group) as a possible factor. Would those contracts be worth enough that some big business friends would want them? Moving to privatize part of the military just as we're on the brink of a possible long-term military entanglement...just seems odd to me. Oh well, much seems odd to me. (As you can tell, I'm a novice to political intrigue!)
Waverider
(11/03/2002; 22:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88702)
New global agency to set Islamic banking standard
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,4386,152893,00.html?Snippit:
"Eight Muslim nations launched a global agency yesterday to set standards for an Islamic financial system that will end 'debt slavery', said Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Dr Mahathir, addressing 1,000 delegates from the Muslim world, said a hallmark of the Islamic system is that risk is shared equally between lender and borrower. The global system stacks deals heavily in favour of lenders, he said, and some nations end up in 'debt slavery'. 'They are not going to lend if they cannot gain control over their borrowers in order to recover their loans, irrespective of the misery this might cause,' he said. 'Clearly, debt slavery has not been abolished in the international financial system.' Bankers say rising demand for ethical investments cuts across religions. Non-Muslims are increasingly active investors in Islamic instruments.

Waverider: ~Blackjack - this article from an Asian website states Usury for what it is - "debt-slavery" - a bit of a different perspective from the BBC article. Cheers!
Sundeck
(11/03/2002; 22:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 88703)
Cytek #88700 and #88698 - Major Bank Problems
http://www.vrc.net.au/mcc/hm_history.aspGood posts - brings the problems of these banks concisely together in a stark summary.

I have a feeling like being in the lull before a storm. I wonder how future economic scenarios will depend, if at all, upon the outcome of the elections? Should Bush lose control of the house and/or the senate, will this force him to devote a much larger effort on the economy rather than the WOT and the looming War on Iraq? If he gains control of the senate and retains control in the house, what does this mean?

Or is it all unfolding in an interlinked, unstoppable drama. After all, he already has authority to wage war at his discretion.

What would we do if we were George Dubya Bush?



Incidentally, on Tuesday the US has elections...Australia has the Melbourne Cup "the race that stops the nation". Note that the winner's trophy is a GOLD cup, although the accompanying fiat prize has a much larger monetary value (see link).

Snip:

"Since 1980 the VRC has commissioned Hardy Brothers Jewellers to create the Melbourne Cup each year. With it's distinctive shape, the gold, three-handled �Loving-Cup� design has been in use 1919 and is an internationally recognised symbol of Australasian racing."

Sundeck

Black Blade
(11/03/2002; 22:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88704)
Foreclosures leap 21% in Bay Area
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/10/31/MN52875.DTL
State economic woes take toll on homeowners

Snippit:

In a sign that the state's moribund economy has taken its toll on Bay Area homeowners and may finally cool the region's overheated housing market, local home loan foreclosure filings leaped nearly 21 percent in the past quarter. The rise in filings was the Bay Area's fourth consecutive double-digit jump, a real estate information service said Wednesday. Santa Clara and Alameda counties recorded the largest percentage increases in foreclosures -- 36.4 percent and 32.1 percent respectively. Foreclosures fell in both San Francisco and Marin counties.

"It takes a while for financial stress to show up in the mortgage defaults, because lenders and borrowers alike will make every effort to work things out, " said Tom Lieser, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "It could be that we're beginning to see the impact of people who have been unemployed for a long time." Indeed, unemployment in the San Jose metropolitan area is among the highest in the country, at 7.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And in September alone, San Francisco lost more than 35,000 jobs.

Others say the true number of homes in foreclosure may be masked by bankruptcy, because when a homeowner files for Chapter 13 the foreclosure proceedings are usually put on hold. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, Chapter 13 filings nationwide in the second quarter increased 6.7 percent over the same quarter last year. "With a bankruptcy, the lender is stopped in place," said Bruce Hasson, a Fremont real estate attorney who represents banks and creditors. "Sometimes the arrears are spread out over three to five years."


Black Blade: �We haven't seen anything yet. Just give it time and we will see wholesale foreclosures. It is hard to have any sympathy for these people though. There is no excuse to get into debt and then to get even deeper in debt. Always plan ahead and have an escape plan. New bankruptcy laws are geared against the homeowner and the consumer. When the new laws go into effect bankruptcy won't be an option for most people. First it will be the peoples� problem, and later it will be the banks problem. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for just such possibilities, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and definitely start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Most of the people referred to in the article only have themselves to blame.

Black Blade
(11/03/2002; 22:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 88705)
Data take steam out of the dollar
http://www.iht.com/articles/75695.html
Currency briefly slips to euro parity after indicators point to new U.S. slump

Snippit:

LONDON The dollar briefly fell below parity with the euro on Friday for the first time since July, amid a series of weak U.S. economic reports that raised the prospect of a "double-dip" recession. Indications that the United States may be headed for a renewed slump have piled up over the last week, with weakness spreading from manufacturing to employment to consumer spending. The bad news culminated Friday with reports of a rising jobless rate and softness in a variety of other indicators. "It's given the euro - by default, almost - a chance to test parity despite pretty awful fundamentals in the euro zone," said Neil MacKinnon, chief economist at ECU Group in London. Indeed, the dollar's decline was widespread, suggesting that the euro's brief surge above $1 was more about disappointment with the U.S. economy than any enthusiasm about Europe.

The Fed has already lowered its key rate to 1.75 percent, but economic growth remains weak, and some economists are worried about a return to recession. The central bank's aggressive action has, however, sharpened the discrepancy between interest rates in the United States and Europe, where the European Central Bank has been loath to follow suit. The prospect of a further rate cut by the Fed may be one reason why the dollar fell Friday, MacKinnon said. Lower interest rates generally mean lower returns for investors, and the difference between yields on U.S. and European government bonds has grown in recent weeks to more than half a percentage point. To be sure, the ECB may also have to cut rates soon, analysts say, because economic conditions are also deteriorating in the 12-country euro zone.

Black Blade: "No where to run and nowhere to hide" � Aretha Franklin

The global recession is only going to get worse. The fundamentals everywhere are at best "grim". Alan Greenspan and company are almost out of bullets, and then what? Deflation? Maybe fire up the presses and then what? Inflation or Stagflation? This is the end game people!

Mr Gresham
(11/03/2002; 22:54:15 MDT - Msg ID: 88706)
GfG: Political Intrigue
Seems like you're doing just fine, using a combination of PUI and common sense. Once you reverse the telescope, and start thinking of USG as a wholly-owned subsidiary of whatever business groups are on top of the heap this decade, you get the logic of all they do.

Took lots of peasants to build up those pyramids (or else aliens with anti-gravity forklifts!)
Black Blade
(11/03/2002; 23:06:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88707)
Federal Regulators Sue Accounting Giant Ernst & Young for $548 Million
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAKSR4818D.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (AP) - Federal regulators say accounting giant Ernst & Young misstated the assets of a failed Chicago-area savings and loan and deliberately delayed reporting the error to the government. The allegation came Friday in a $548 million fraud and negligence lawsuit filed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. It said the accounting firm was silent about the misstated assets to avoid publicity that would hurt the $11 billion sale of its consulting arm.

Federal regulators seized Superior in July 2001. The thrift was the biggest insured U.S. financial institution to fail in nearly a decade. The lawsuit said the cost to the FDIC of paying depositors was $750 million. Superior had lost millions of dollars on risky home loans to borrowers with tarnished credit. In January 2001, after lengthy denials, Ernst & Young acknowledged that Superior's assets had been overstated by $270 million, according to the lawsuit. It said further investigation showed the thrift's assets had to be lowered by an additional $150 million. The complaint outlined "a long history of breaching duties owed to the FDIC and other regulatory agencies" on the part of Ernst & Young.


Black Blade: It appears that yet another scam accounting firm is on the ropes for engaging in fraud. No better than Arthur Andersen. Well, what do ya know. Former shareholders of Superior just might have a case for lawsuits of their own against Ernst & Young as they can argue that they lost their investment due to at best shoddy accounting and at worst outright fraud. Hmmm�

Waverider
(11/03/2002; 23:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 88708)
Alaska Pipeline Shut by Earthquake of Magnitude 7.9
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APcYHaxUEQWxhc2thSnippit:
"A magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck central Alaska, shutting down the 800-mile oil pipeline that connects the oil fields at the north coast of the state with the ports on the south coast. The pipeline's support structure closest to the epicenter of the earthquake sustained damage, Mike Heatwole, a spokesman for Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., said in an interview. No damage had been discovered at the pipeline itself as of Sunday night, Heatwole said. Repair crews won't be able to assess until tomorrow how long it will be before the pipeline can be reopened, he said."

Waverider: ~ Black Blade - did you see this? Cheers!
Black Blade
(11/03/2002; 23:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88709)
Oil companies digging for scientists
http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/xml/story.ssf/html_standard.xsl?/base/business/103623331775090.xml
Snippit:

As the baby-boom generation gets older and starts thinking about retirement, the nation's oil and gas industry is worried that its supply of trained workers is running out. Through massive layoffs and consolidation over the past two decades, the industry ruptured its own pipeline of experienced geoscientists, the people in charge of finding oil and natural gas deposits around the world. The median age of America's labor force is 40, according to the Labor Department. In the oil and gas industry, the median age is 41. But Steve Holditch, president of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, emphasized that the median is closer to 50 when it comes to geoscientists, the technical experts in charge of finding petroleum deposits around the world. The aging of the industry's work force is one of the lingering consequences of mass layoffs that occurred after the price of crude oil plunged in the mid-1980s and then again in the late 1990s. Tens of thousands of geologists, geophysicists and petroleum engineers left the industry, and many never returned. Industrywide consolidation furthered this trend, creating a generation gap at many petroleum companies.


Black Blade: The skills needed to find and produce petroleum barely exists in the US today. The nations universities do not produce graduates for this type of career anymore and most former professionals have left the industry to never return. When the energy crunch comes, this problem alone will mean less domestic oil and gas production. The same goes for the mining industry as well. The energy and mining companies really only have themselves to blame of course.

Mr Gresham
(11/03/2002; 23:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88710)
Aristotle's "Five Part Series on Gold, Oil, and Money in the Free Market"
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor318280For hungry minds only.
Black Blade
(11/03/2002; 23:50:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88711)
Re: Waverider - Earth Quake
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021104/0028000013_2.html
I didn't see that. Japan just had an earth quake today as well.

Rock and Roll!!!

- Black Blade
Usul
(11/04/2002; 01:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88712)
1.7 million to the dollar
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/2396223.stm"The Turkish lira has slumped to a record low of more than 1.7 million to the dollar after the Justice and Development Party (AKP) romped home in elections on Sunday..."
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 02:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88713)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Looks like a rocket sled ride is in store for the open on Wall Street. Market index futures indicate a very sharp rocket ride. Gold is down a buck, oil and gas prices are collapsing sharply too. The USD is leaving the foreign currencies in the dust. Yet, I have no idea why. Should be quite "entertaining" today.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 02:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88714)
Remember To Vote

Tomorrow Americans vote. As Al Capone used to say:

Vote, and vote often!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 02:14:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88715)
Asian and Euro Markets Rock and Roll
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Market indices worldwide are suddenly rocketing higher - much higher. This should get "interesting".

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 04:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88716)
SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt to be Fired?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021103/financial_pitt_3.htmlWhite House Takes Hard Look at SEC's Pitt

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House was taking a hard look at the future of top U.S. markets regulator Harvey Pitt, with control of the Senate and the outcome of a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission internal probe seen as decisive factors, Republican sources said on Sunday. President Bush could ask SEC Chairman Pitt to step down, but no such request was seen coming, if at all, until after the Nov. 5 elections, and would be less likely if the Democrats retain Senate control, sources said.


Black Blade: Apparently this is the reason for the worldwide stock market rally. The hopes of a US interest rate cut is old news.

Sundeck
(11/04/2002; 04:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 88717)
The Official Site of the Shanghai Gold Exchange
http://www.sge.sh/en/en_default.aspThis looks like the official site of the SGE
Sundeck
(11/04/2002; 04:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88718)
Investment to Spur China Gold Demand
http://www.brecorder.com/story.php?css=brecord.css&story=0000644726&m=007&s=002Snip:

"HONG KONG (November 02 2002) : The timing of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's launch this week is auspicious, three months before the Chinese New Year when people are most likely to buy the metal, but the extent of pent-up demand remains unclear."



I suspect demand will probably reflect general growth in wealth as the economy grows.

Sundeck
Aristotle
(11/04/2002; 05:10:46 MDT - Msg ID: 88719)
Hi Mr. Gresham. Thanks for that blast from the past.
Wow, it's amazing how the time sails by!! Looking back over the years, if we were to sift through my own wearisome overburden of posts and opinions piled high like tailings, among them there are three primary presentations on Gold for which I'd gladly step away from the soapbox and fade quietly into the night, pledging my future silence as my reward to the paper-driven people of the world in exchange for their singular good-faith effort to read and comprehend the essence of those three.

The first is the series you pointed to from June 1999 because it helps to demonstrate how Gold's monetary relevance has in fact been maintained, behind the scenes, even as its falling price over the past twenty years was shattering confidence among the uninitiated -- many thinking that Gold was on its way to becoming a financial relic.

The second presentation is the one from February 2000, important in light of the first one because it necessarily tempers any ill-advised zeal for a return to a Gold standard that may have been fostered by misinterpretation from my own somewhat sloppy/incomplete treatment of the earlier material. It builds the case that banking is an inherently inflationary practice that effectively brings about a corruption and DEvaluation of a hard asset such as Gold if it is asked to circulate as currency at par with checkbook money. It lays out the fundamental argument that Gold will attain its highest market value only when it's universally held simply as an item of property, thus avoiding the inevitable value corruption currently being experienced due to the artificial sense of abundance naturally introduced through banking practices which were just briefly glimpsed in the first presentation.

The third presentation was the couple of posts from the latter half of October 2002, designed for those who have to "see it" and "touch it" before they'll believe it. Over the internet, this was about the closest I could come to providing brick and mortar of how the game is played to help the strong hands get meaningful loads of Gold over time at giveaway prices, knowing fully well the handsome payoff comes when the game itself collapses when the last of the weak hands have been separated from their Gold.

Call me an old softie, or call me hasty, but personally I think the game has gone on quite long enough. I tend to believe a great deal of needless suffering in many regions of the world could be avoided if Gold sooner rather than later began its meteoric rise to stardom (due to a fundamental shift to physical-based market valuation.) It would do wonders to boost the standard of living for a lot of good souls living in leaky huts who simply haven't been able to effectively mobilize resources by tapping into functional credit markets, but who have never the less been wise enough and resourceful enough to drape thin Gold chains around their necks and wrists and to stash away a few wafers of Gold. The meek shall inherit the earth.

While I can't control the timeline of the ending of this game, its a no-brainer to confidently keep on taking advantage of the opportunity while the bullion banking game continues and the Gold moves cheaply. Buy Gold and sit on it. As simple as it seems, it's the ultimate insider play.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Henri
(11/04/2002; 05:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88720)
Sundeck Shanghai GE Site
I had to Laugh when I saw the displayed picture of Sacagewea Dollar and Kentucky Quarter prominently displayed. Perhaps they think our "gold" dollar is actually gold?
18K
(11/04/2002; 06:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 88721)
@Gfg #88701, Army Outsourcing
GfG,I just retired out of the Army from a half miliary/half civilian office and can give you a little background on the blurb you heard. You're spot on - the reason is costs. Bosnia, WOT et al is expensive, even when (months later) congress authorizes more money. In the meantime, you tighten your budget belt and hope you can pay the electric bill that month. When the money does come, it goes (rightfully so) to cover the costs of the "pointy end of the spear" (i.e. the guys with the guns), leaving the support functions (logistics, administration, personnel) still short cash. These areas are also where the bulk of the civilians work. Once you've cancelled all equipment purchases, official travel, training, and put a lock on the office supply cabinet, the only place left to scrape up money is in payroll. Civilians are expensive to employ because they're gov't workers. Contractors are cheaper to employ because you don't have to worry about paying him/her all the gov't worker bennies. Personally, I don't think the Army will have much luck in privatizing their civilians - too many trotters already in the gov't trough.
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 09:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88722)
TA TA TAT TAT TAT TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!! <;-)
This is an advance warning to ALL LURKERS !!
Preparation for an announcement by SIR MK for ANOTHER Price-of-Gold Guessing CONTEST is being made at the Castle.
It is recommended that ALL LURKERS read the requirements for obtaining a USAGOLD Forum "password" to be able to post, chose your "handle" and "get ready" for the NEXT CONTEST. After all, one can not beat the cost, IT IS FREE!
The Castle Staff are very busy, BUT may be able to squeeze in your application between trips to and from the Vaults. ( Procrastination is NOT an excuse if you miss the CONTEST and the chance for the FREE GOLD or Silver !! )
BE Prepared !
<;-)

sector
(11/04/2002; 09:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 88723)
The Fed's Rate Cut -- Let's wait for the decision
There's a bit of discord among Board GovernorsRecently three top Federal Reserve Board governors issued a rare public statement the "Rates were low enough".

Unless they were simply flapping their lips we may see something less than consensus this week at the Fed.

If one thinks about it, these three guys have a hammer over the Chairman. See they can get any policy they want from the Master of the Universe.

All they need to do is threaten to go public with GoldGate. What could the Chairman do? Claim that Gramlich, McTear and Broaddus are lying?

In situations where a pure analytical personality type is finally confronted with the reality of an internal revolt, he capitulates at the last possible moment.

That may or may not be this time around. It depends solely upon the conviction of three men who have already said rates are low enough.

They are also implying that the bond speculators have had enough free money and that the strong dollar doesn't need any more help from falling interest rates.

Place your bets.
Operative
(11/04/2002; 10:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88724)
Wellooo (Hic) Bweeautiful !
Like a drunken sailer on shore leave after 6 months at sea the commentators on CNBC proclaim, with great excitement, the beauty of the stock market. Never mind the woman of wall st they see has no teeth (massive job layoffs) or that she has but one leg ( Huge debts) amongst a host of other troubling signs, she is one "looker"!! (me thinks the sailer is about to get rolled)

Warning: This is a sign that the Bar on Fall St. is nearing "Closing Time"!
RobotGuy
(11/04/2002; 10:23:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88725)
Operative
Funny! Sad/True but funny analogy nonetheless!Cheers!!
RobotGuy
(11/04/2002; 10:46:03 MDT - Msg ID: 88726)
Television - - - Last night
I was impressed to see an airing last night on Canadian national television of an individual predicting doom for the economy. Actually, I think there were more than one individual with the same sort of outlook for North America for the next few years. I apologise, for I did not pay enough attention to get their names, but one individual was comparing all sorts of things in society to the direction of the market from music to miniskirts. The outcome of the presentation was this individual telling any and all investors to pull out of the markets now!!!
I was impressed to see such a presentation on National television.

If the individual who made this presentation is part of this forum and knows of whom and what I speak, I would like to say 'helmet's off to you sir!!'

Impressive indeed!


Cheers!

RobotGuy.
Belgian
(11/04/2002; 11:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 88727)
@ Ari
I'm still rereading (studying) your blast of the past, mentioned by Lord Gresham. And with those regular WGC mails, falling into my box...I wanted to emphasize a little, big detail. Ad nauseum (!!!), the WGC, as a Gold-Promotor (???) provides us all with very detailed information (gratis) on the Gold situation in the Indian continent. Fine with me, because we are talking about that regular net-accumulator of 800 tonnes of precious physical, per year, and this year after year. An estimated total amount (???) of 10.000 tonnes is stashed overthere.

BUT...

Why is there NEVER - EVER, one single word about Arabian oil and their Gold ??? This very little, big, tiny, idiot, simple 'small, seemingly insignificant, detail...says it all, about the WGC, and what is behind it ! It isn't frustrating me (anymore) but rather amusing me, tremendously, more and more.
This is simply evidence for your (and Another's) theory on oil > Gold > dollar and now euro, as the *real* "insider's", concept ! Isn't it Sir Aristotle ?

Yesterday, there was a televized reporting about the Belgian King's visit to Saudi Arabia (and Kuwait). And when Kings do meet Kings (Belgian/Saudi), pictures speak more than a thousands words : It was ***yellow*** all over the place !!!

On top of this WGC's, India-Gold-obsession...we have the famous Mitsui intrigant, A. Smith, declaring regulary that things are changing in India and that we don't have to keep counting on them to continue taking up the physical !?
Andy, also never heard about deep desert oil to be replaced with shiny yellow. What a farce !

Two small news facts : Iran denies it is holding (arrested) Osama BL's son and Saudi Arabia officially doesn't want to co-operate on Iran's occupation.

Stubbornly and purposely NOT mentioning and totally ignoring, the association between, Gold and Oil, for the general public, as a very normal given...IS OF UTMOST SIGNIFICANCE ! And as I mentionned earlier, the whole Australian Gold production (+/- 450 tonnes) has always and still is, entirely shipped to the ME, year after year.

Thanks again Ari for those early 1999 writings of you to be found in the Hall of Fame, strongly recommended to the increasing amount of enthousiastic newbies here at USAGOLD.
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 12:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 88728)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlYour Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST", starting now !!

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of MONDAY the 11th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on SUNDAY, November 10th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!

To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on MONDAY November 11th ----- an ANTIQUE Golden era PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

===
Don't wait tooooo long as the guessing rush is going to start now, and YOUR price may be taken by a early entry.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 12:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88729)
$$$$ 543.2 $$$$
The Hobbits have to admit that they did not obtain very much gold in the 1960's, but they still have what they did obtain ! But their answer to the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" --

It is ABSOLUTELY the SAME !! Why, one asks ? Well there are times that one looks back and says to themself, "IF I HAD ONLY DONE THAT, THEN" --- !!!

THIS is one of those same times ! Just wait a few years and see how many of your NON-Goldheart friends and workers will be telling you that they were considering buying some gold, BUT ----- !! AND, then you can just smile and say, "well MAYBE another opportunity will come around in your lifetime !" YOUR family, will also realize (if they do not know now) that YOU were not "demented", but the wise one of the family. (My extended family is now begining to see the light after years of my preaching !)
<;-)
J-Bullion
(11/04/2002; 12:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 88730)
$$$ 323.40 $$$
Buying gold now is much better than buying gold at $35 in the late sixties. Back then the gold window was about to close. Now, not only are the economic stresses to the system about to be much worse due to the massive amounts of debt, but gold is starting to come back into use as money. Add to the fact that since the mid-1990's the Fed has been printing $$$ like it's been growing on trees, the huge short gold position time bomb that's brewing, wars, and it's the only real financial insurance you can get.
TownCrier
(11/04/2002; 13:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 88731)
Notre Dame football fans: a call to action
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.htmlIt should not take too much imagination for you to picture Jonathan today, trying hard to put on a happy face following the weekend defeat of his Alma Mater. Here's a perfect chance to lift your own spirits with a gold order and to keep Jonathan too busy in the process to mourn the end of the undefeated season.

Psssst.... and if you are a Boston College fan, this is also a perfect chance to celebrate with a gold order, and use the chance to taunt poor Jonathan with your victory. (Don't worry, I think he can handle the ribbing).

R.
Clint H
(11/04/2002; 14:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88732)
Contest
I thought I had better jump in and get this guess before the number is taken.
$$$$3,231.2$$$$
Because someday I will be correct.


"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" It is! I may be a little early on the price of $3,231.20 but someday soon people will be asking "Is buying gold now like buying it at $318 an ounce in late 2002?"
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 14:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88733)
Re: Townie - Notre Dame vs. Boston College

That was an "entertianing" game, though you guys in Colorado must have had a good time with that Air Force vs. CSU game. Not often that the punter makes a TD run like that. For sure quite an "entertaining" weekend for football.

Speaking of "entertaining" games, the stock market was all over the place and yet the price of gold held firm in face of assaults from all sides. It appears that no one is really taking the current stock market rally all that seriously. The Wall Street continues to "game" the individual investor, but it appears that the individual investor has caught on and isn't buying into it.

BTW, the DMR is updated with a bit more info on the PM market action over the last 24 hours.

- Black Blade
BlackBart
(11/04/2002; 14:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88734)
$$$$332.2$$$$
Trading gold in the late 1960's was difficult because it had not yet opened up to the general public but, at $35/oz is was a fantastic buy, even considering the greater buying power of the dollar at that time. I think that it is still way undervalued, which is why I, a person of limited financial means, am holding physical PMs. The silver that I hold I purchased for less than that which I held in the mid 1970's, which means that it is now a hugely fantastic buy. My holdings in the mid 1970's went to over 1000% of where I got in..what a deal! Probably more so than the late 60's, the gold that is left to extract from the earth is, of course, more and more limited, and more and more expensive to get out...IT CAN ONLY GO UP...we all know the manipulating that is happening, largely, I think, to secure the election tomorrow for TPTB. They can only hold on for so long and my figure, my guess is based on the assumption that the charade will start to fall apart after the election is secured...if it is a big win for the Repubs, they wont care what the citizens think, if it is a win for the Dems, the markets will be allowed to reflect the horrible shape of our economy in order to make it look like it is a reflection of lack of confidence in Democratic control...so let's see what the next 48 hours looks like...at any rate..the real time of reckoning is NIGH, as opposed to the late 60's..not long wait (is that 30 words)(hard for me to introduce myself in 30 words)
BlackBart
barnaclebob
(11/04/2002; 14:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88735)
$$$ 319.80 $$$
ContestThe Bond Markets do not agree with the Equity Markets. My money is on the Bond Traders. The Bond Traders are focusing on fundamentals, not pie in the sky "feel good" election driven, program traded, manipulated equities and valuations.

The Bond Markets long term outlook that corporations will possess the ability to timely repay debt is a major factor in the pricing of bonds. Bond traders are becoming concerned about losing money and the financial capacity of corporate America to repay the money it has borrowed. Corporate America is suffering a sector wide decrease of sales, revenue and earnings.

One billion Muslims are boycotting American products. Indeed, any country that loses one billion consumers(1/6 of global population) will experience economic contraction and deflation. Add a dash of greed, a pinch of fraudulent accounting, two cups of independence, the introduction of the dinar, dirham and euro and the recipe is economic disaster for a debt driven society and monetary system.

The only way out? Hyper-inflate??????

My bet goes to Gold.

The Barnacle
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 14:49:43 MDT - Msg ID: 88736)
From The Mail Bag � Just How Bad Is It?

The following courtesy of Eric Fry:

Curiously, the U.S. dollar did not participate in the exuberant financial Oktoberfest on Wall Street. Maybe the greenback just didn't feel like partying. But if the biggest one-month stock rally in 15 years can't pull in enough foreign buying to support the dollar, what will? The gaping U.S. current account deficit certainly won't help, and neither will the moribund US economy. Net-net, the dollar faces some serious headwinds.

Almost everything about the U.S. economy these days spells S-L-O-W. "The October employment numbers were just plain ugly," says Alan Abelson of Barron's. "The unemployment rate edged up a notch; but we're convinced it's understated and, in any case, destined to climb in the months ahead. Payrolls shrunk again, this time by 5,000; but, more significantly, 29,000 jobs were lost in the private sector. Hours worked overall declined 0.4% and factory hours worked dropped twice as much."

Sherry Cooper of the Bank of Montreal Financial Group observes that the 5.7% unemployment rate may be worse than it appears. That's because the U.S. economy is suffering "a very different kind of joblessness than ever before - it is primarily white collar and highly educated. They are people who have never been unemployed before. They are managers, business consultants, auditors, engineers, technology workers and investment bankers."

Illustrating the point, a recent issue of Business Week profiles Craig and Malene Comes of San Jose, Calif., who "were raking in $120,000 a year and living la dolce vita. The two computer technicians indulged in lavish trips, hired a cleaning lady, and ate out almost every night. Then, both were laid off. Today, they get bags of groceries from a San Jose food bank, have joined the ranks of the uninsured, and beg their parents for $1,045 in rent for their 600-square-foot apartment." Unfortunately, the Comes' travails are not entirely unique. Within the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey, the jobs-plentiful index imploded to 14.8 in October from 35.6 a year ago, while the jobs-hard-to-get index soared to 27.3 from 14.9 a year ago.


Black Blade: A good example of what's happening in the U.S., however, this is also being repeated globally as well. It will get much worse and the market fundamentals are at best "grim". As always get prepared for a deep downturn and don't get fooled by the recent investment bank head fake in the equities markets. Get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food (see the example of the "Comes" above) and basic necessities. Be careful, it's a jungle out there.
Waverider
(11/04/2002; 14:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88737)
VIP (Very Important Post) - DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThanks Black Blade!
18K
(11/04/2002; 15:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88738)
$$$$321.7$$$$
Allowing for inflation, gold is only a little above the price of $35 oz in the late '60's. Those who bought then are now as well contented with the value they purchased as those who buy today will be in 2040. Buy gold for the value, not the price.
gvc
(11/04/2002; 15:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88739)
Gold Contest
$$$ 338.40 $$$ As far as buying gold today being akin to buying @ $35 in the 60's, I would have to say yes. IMO, We are about to embark on the most important gold bullish phase since that time regardless of the final ending price reached. I base my reason solely on technical analysis and long term cycle analysis. This initial runup phase that started in '01 should last until sometime around May of 2004, but the overall bull market trend could extend to as late as 2012, with many sizeable corrections along the way. I sincerely hope the run up is "orderly" as anything close to a blowoff would probably be forecasting serious problems for our world. good luck to all.
Kodie
(11/04/2002; 15:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88740)
Contest $$$$ 327.6 $$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No, In My Very Humble Opinion, we are above the low for this bull market. I think buying in the 270's - 280's was like buying in the 1960's at 35.00 per ounce. Gold is still at an unbelievable low price, even now. I bought 30 oz. last week in a private placement at 326.00. I will continue to buy as the price goes up. Buying now has not hurt the weighted average cost of my stash. Buy gold. You'll never be sorry you did, no matter what the price.

My investment money is divide thusly.

Gold Bullion 49%
Natural Gold Nuggets 26%
Cash 22%
Rare Gold Coins 2%
Silver 1%

Go gold! Thanks for the contest!
Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 15:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88741)
Welcome Blackbart
Another branch of our family tree.
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 15:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 88742)
For Pitt, The Odds Aren't Good
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59279-2002Nov2.html
Snippit:

No, dear investor, Securities and Exchange Commission is not the name of a new sitcom on CNBC. The chairman of the SEC really has decided to investigate himself. Harvey L. Pitt has turned himself in to the SEC's inspector general. You could almost hear Pitt proclaiming, "Take my deposition, please," popping his eyeballs like Henny Youngman. Pitt wants to find out what he knew and when he knew it, in particular about former FBI director William Webster's role as chairman of the audit committee of a penny stock company that is being sued for accounting fraud. At Pitt's initiative, the inspector general is going to investigate his own boss's decision to pick Webster to run a new board that is supposed to oversee the auditors of public companies and stamp out accounting abuses.

It seems that when he made the choice, Pitt neglected to tell anyone that Webster himself had firsthand experience with questionable accounting at U.S. Technologies Inc., an all-but bankrupt Washington company, with a stock that now trades for 1 cent a share -- which is about what I'd bet you that Pitt survives this farce. The Emmy for best comic performance by a congressman goes to Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), who came up with the line that "Pitt has violated the First Law of Holes, which is, when you are in one, stop digging."


Black Blade: It looks like Dubya is losing patience with this sorry loser. Unfortunately he still supports dweebs like Paul O�Neill and Alan Greenspan who are determined to do devastating damage to his presidency. This is going to be "interesting" to see how soon Pitt gets booted or "resigns".

- Off to the gym!!!

Beach
(11/04/2002; 15:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 88743)
Gold Contest
$$$326.50$$$
Yes i feel the price of Gold at $35 in 1960 is the same as now because it doesn't matter what the price of Gold's value is its the most precious of all..living in Canada at this time of the year we tend to talk about the weather alot so heres my weather forecast..its going to get*Gold* this winter...very very GOLD..Good Luck To All
Genoo
(11/04/2002; 16:04:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88744)
Shift of Perception
Stephen Roach on China...

"Which brings me to the bottom line of my latest sojourn to China: China is now beginning to come to grips with the global context of many of its macro problems. The senior officials we met with in Beijing were quite frank in expressing their concerns about global deflation. They were also convinced that an overvalued US dollar was ripe for a fall. Moreover, official Beijing now concedes that both of these developments have important consequences for China. This is a subtle but important shift. I detected greater concern on both counts than I did in several visits earlier this year. To me, that's real progress. The difference comes in the sticky area of blame. China argues that it is an innocent bystander -- and a source of resilience -- in an otherwise shaky global economy. The rest of the world sees it differently -- that China's emerging economic prowess is now part of the problem".


Comment: It seems to me that suddenly China has suddenly clicked into/arrived at/... a powerhouse position. Even though it's been shifting in that direction for some time.
Golden Bear
(11/04/2002; 16:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88745)
When marketing masquerades as investing...
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p32723.aspSnippit:

"...Those who bray loudest about economic recovery typically have something to sell. But remember, they're not gambling with their own money. They're gambling with yours.
By Bill Fleckenstein

The kiddies may have just removed their Halloween masks, but on Wall Street, disguise works year-round. Corporate chieftains are still out there spinning bad news into good news. In tech land, DRAM prices rise because of a manipulation dressed up as increased demand. And under the guise of helping clients, the people who play with other people's money turn trust into losses. Unfortunately, that deception is no illusion.

Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen, there's a lot of stuff to cover this week, beginning with some thoughts on false assumptions about the "recovery." The economic data we've seen over the past two weeks won't win any beauty prizes. Consumer confidence fell to a nine-year low of 79.4, vs. expectations of 90. Durable-goods orders, a notoriously volatile indicator, were a nightmare, down 5.9%, vs. expectations of a 1.6% decline. Nondefense capital-goods orders, ex- aircraft, were down a stunning 6.6%.

Suffice to say, these results are not a sign of economic strength (though as I mentioned, the data are volatile), and that brings me to my concern for people who pay today's prices for securities. Their implicit assumption is that the economy is in the process of getting better. As I have repeatedly stated and tried to cite evidence to back it up, my belief is that the economy is getting weaker. That, coupled with current stock prices, is a recipe for huge trouble all over again...."
----------------------------------------------
GB: A lot of smoke and mirrors still being sold to investors by Fall Street...
silvercollector
(11/04/2002; 16:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 88746)
Aristotle
We will all 'trade' our 'silence' when paper turns to dust....but that day is not quite upon us.

While at the Embassy of Iran last week I asked why they called home their gold and I was promptly reminded of America'a imperilism......they are aware.

Turkey has new leadership......

Shares in the DOW have increased (in dollars) in the last few days but since it's 'value' has not changed what can one perceive of the dollar looking forward?

One X one is one and so is 0.10 X 10 and sandwiches will soon be $10, see the dollar!

'The meek shall inherit the earth' and you dear friend should see to that.

Sandwiches.......get you some.

....and yes, PAYING for the oil isn't such a novel idea.

silvercollector
TownCrier
(11/04/2002; 16:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88747)
The only thing better than contests are the prizes...
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThe url gives a nice write-up of the grand prize that will go to the finest marksman among you. Let those arrows fly!
steady
(11/04/2002; 16:50:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88748)
$$$$ 319.20 $$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

i dont know if it is or not. I wasnt even in my teens . However the federal reserve sure has pinted alot of fiat dollars since then so it seems like it is to me at the moment.
GratefulForGold
(11/04/2002; 16:57:58 MDT - Msg ID: 88749)
Black Blade #88742 -- Harvey Pitt
I wonder, if Pitt resigns...will CNBC keep airing one of their commercials that features Pitt saying something like, "I'll never throw in the towel."

We takes our chuckles where we finds �em.
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 17:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88750)
WELCOME SIR Blackbart !! One one my favorite Goldhearts !!
The Hobbits were wondering when you would stop by the Forum, AND I know that you still have most of your BOOTIES !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 17:27:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88751)
MINOR change to the RULES of the POG Guessing CONTEST !
OOPS -- Well after hearing from the Great White North, it seems as there, OZ, and the Brits have ANOTHER HOLIDAY, and seeing that it is ALSO Veterans Day in the USA, AND while the NYSE is going to be open, no one can comfirm to the Hobbits that the COMEX will be open on MONDAY, November 11th. THEREFORE, the WINNING Settlement Price will be that of TUESDAY , November 12th and the deadline for entries will be MONDAY, November 11th at HIGH NOON Denver time !!

IF anyone wishes to change their "prognostication", post me a message before tomorrow at this time.
<;-)
PS: Tks Lady Waverider !
Believer
(11/04/2002; 17:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 88752)
Contest Guess or Estimate for Prognostication: $$$$399.8$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

Well, of course not! There are some thirty years difference between the late 1960's and now. Buying it now is a completely different year. The past is gone forever, so buy it now, but you will never find it for $35/ ounce.
Crash
(11/04/2002; 17:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88753)
Gold in the late 1960's vs. gold today . . . was it the same?
In 1969, gold was trading in the low $40's after having been capped for 35 years at $35 oz. This was a significant breakout but was recognized by very few analysts. Owning bullion was still not legal for U.S. citizens. The only way to buy gold was to purchase numismatic coins.

After searching the yellow pages, I located a small coin shop in downtown Los Angeles run by a young man (19 years old) who had been a coin collector most of his life. All of my limited assets were invested in sovereigns and U.S. $20 coins. My motivation was to preserve the value of what I had accumulated up to that time. I had a very negative view of the stock market and little confidence in banks. Gold seemed to be the lowest risk alternative. The differences between then and now are great. However, there are important similarities. Then, as now, there was no way to absolutely predict the future. Then, as now, the desire to preserve the "value" of assets was a strong motivator. My analytical process was to explore and consider all the alternatives and then choose the one that seemed to provide the lowest risk. Gold rose to the top of the list in 1969. Although today's environment is different, the process of elimination once again favors gold. Today, the greatest difference is in the wealth of information and opinions available and gold's price history over the past 30 years. Since the internet and this forum have introduced me to like-minded souls, I am aware that favoring gold today is not as contrary as it was 30 years ago. The detailed analysis, interesting discussion and meteoric price projections somewhat inhibit my enthusiasm. But, times have changed. Today's case for gold is different. It is not a weaker case, but it is a different case.
Kodie
(11/04/2002; 17:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88754)
Gandalf the White - MINOR change to the RULES

OK, so the date changes. Change my guess to... :-)
Just kidding!

Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 17:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88755)
Iran wants to start using Gold Dinar
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2002/11/5/nation/klgiran&sec=nationKUALA LANGAT: Iran has offered to use the gold dinar for bilateral business with Malaysia, said Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Mohd Shafie Salleh.�

He said top officials from Iran had expressed their intention to use the dinar in their business transaction with Malaysia under the Bilateral Payment Agreement.�

"These officials told me of their intention during last month's Islamic Development conference in Africa. The meeting was attended by all the Finance Ministers of the Islamic nations," said Mohd Shafie, who represented Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad at the conference. �

The Prime Minister was quoted as saying recently that Malaysia planned to set up a secretariat in the country to promote the idea of using the gold dinar among central banks of other Muslim countries.�

Shafie said he would be submitting his detailed report to the Cabinet on Iran's offer.�

He said various issues would have to be taken into consideration, including the current diplomatic and bilateral relations between Malaysia and Iran. �
____________
Lets get those mints rolling, rolling, rolling... rawhide.
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 18:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88756)
Dec. 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price CONTEST
FIRST UPDATE (with revisions also) <;-)
as of 17:45 Denver time 11/04/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High of $319.3 and a low of $317.5 !
(looks as if Sir Steady is "KING of the HILL" at this point !) <;-)


ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg:: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on MONDAY November 11th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===
Don't wait tooooo long as the guessing rush is going to start now, and YOUR price may be taken by a early entry.

<;-)
PS: Thanks Sir Kodie !!
AND WELCOME "NEWBIES" !!!
Pizz
(11/04/2002; 18:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88757)
Forcing Money off the Sidelines
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1A08DF86%2DE3B4%2D4489%2D88D6%2DDDB3686A72A7%7D&siteid=mktwIf the FED cuts rates, money market funds are going to have a hard time offering uninsured returns to customers.

Snip:

"If there is a Fed rate cut, we're considering several options to avoid the possibility of negative yields," he said. "The shareholder would not be asked to come out of pocket to support this plan so there would be no adverse effects on the shareholder."

------------------------------

If the sheeple won't commit money voluntarily, then make the returns so low they go somewhere else.

Gold should get a trickle or two, and a trickle hear and a trickle there adds up in a real small market. . .

Pizz
Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 18:07:51 MDT - Msg ID: 88758)
Job cuts surge in October
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Planned job cuts announced by U.S. companies rocketed to 176,010 in October, or more than 7,600 per business day, after falling to a 22-month low in September, an employment consulting firm said Monday.

The October figure is the second-highest of the year, behind only January's 212,704, according to the monthly job-cut survey released by Challenger Gray & Christmas Inc., which tracks daily job-cut announcements.

The October total is 151 percent higher than September's count of 70,057 planned cuts, which was the lowest monthly total since November 2000.

But the latest figure is 27 percent below the 242,192 planned job cuts announced in October 2001 following the Sept. 11 attacks.

Job-cut announcements year-to-date also are down 27 percent from a year ago. Through October, 1,180,627 cuts have been announced, compared with 1,613,880 last year, Challenger Gray said.

While the pace of job cutting has declined from a year ago, when the 9/11 attacks impacted all industries, certain sectors continue to struggle. The technology sector alone accounted for 34 percent of October job cuts, the firm said.
______________
Naz volume today was heavy. End of rally near?
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 18:10:34 MDT - Msg ID: 88759)
WELCOME Sir Crash !! Don't think I have seen you before.
You said " --somewhat inhibit my enthusiasm."
Well I and the Hobbits are sure happy to see another wise old Goldheart ! Loved your story !!! Let us hear from you again soon, WHEN you wish to add a PRICE PROGNOSTICATION to that discussion story !
<;-)
gvc
(11/04/2002; 18:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 88760)
To : gandalf...contest settlement date change
I would suggest that if you find out comex is open NOv 11, that you keep that date as the contest date. If it is closed, then obviously nov 12 should be used.
Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 18:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88761)
Another 1987 event near?
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmWhile the emphasis in the financial markets has been on the sudden pop in the major indexes that came from three major gap days, there are other markets worth watching that spell trouble ahead for the markets.

Please review the charts below of the falling dollar, rising CRB Index, and the rise in interest rates. If this trend persists; while stock prices continue to rally, the markets are ignoring a very important set of warnings. A falling dollar goes along with rising commodity prices.

Rising commodity prices are closely linked with rising interest rates, and rising interest rates are bad news for stocks. An upcoming Storm Update will explore this issue in much more depth, but if the trend continues on its present course, it looks eerily similar to what preceded the 1987 stock market crash.

In 1987 the stock market rose double digits against a backdrop of a falling dollar, plunging bond market, and rising commodity, especially gold prices.
___________
Market looks very rich. Institutions have been buying this rally.
The little guy is still pulling money out of market. Big boys are
trying to sucker in the small players. Not working. Timberrrrrr!
Crash
(11/04/2002; 18:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88762)
Gandalf the White
I don't want to detract from the sport of submitting price estimates either near term or long term. I believe this adds interest and fun to this forum.

My enthusiasm for gold is based more on the idea that it is currently the least risky alternative for preserving the value of our excess. The greater its price relative to the dollar, the more protection it will provide. When this will occur is beyond me. Years ago when it was a good idea, I put it in a safe place and gave it minimum thought and never projected a price. Projecting prices, especially with time parameters, is beyond my ability. Thanks for your request though, it makes me feel at home.
kludge
(11/04/2002; 18:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88763)
$$$ 321.2 $$$
For certain, gold was a much better deal in the late '60s at $35 an ounce, had it been legal for Americans to own it then of course. de Gaulle knew it was a steal. So why $$$ 321.2 $$$? $285.41 ($20.67 in 1933 dollars adjusted for inflation today) + 356.96 ($35 in 1944, again adjusted for inflation) / 2 = $321.2

Funny how that works out to just about it's value today, huh? Currency pegged or currency floating, gold spikes and gold valleys - over time it will average out to it's historic intrinsic value. Gold will always preserve wealth, if you want to use it to make a profit (off physical, anyway) sell it when the first case of smallpox is confirmed or the first dirty bomb goes off. Buy it back 6-12 mos later for less. Just my opinion. Good luck all.

GratefulForGold
(11/04/2002; 19:31:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88764)
$$$$322.9$$$$

No, buying gold now is not like buying gold at $35/oz in the very late 60's. I don't think I had $35 to spare in the late 60's. Fortunately, I've had many $319's or so to spare in 2002! Phew! (A subjective answer regarding my ability and not gold's value).
GratefulForGold
Genoo
(11/04/2002; 19:43:26 MDT - Msg ID: 88765)
Twisting in the wind
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1A08DF86%2DE3B4%2D4489%2D88D6%2DDDB3686A72A7%7D&siteid=mktwWill he {Greenspan} or will he not...and remember it's the only thing that he can or cannot do...


"Experts don't believe another rate cut would cause money market funds to "break the buck," which is industry jargon for having their net asset values fall under $1 and causing investors to actually lose money on their money fund investments.

But more than 100 funds are now only barely maintaining a positive yield of 1 percentage point or lower, according to fund tracker Lipper. If rates go any lower, they will have to begin eating their own expense fees to prevent the funds from posting negative returns."


Comment: Greenie is caught between a rock and a hard place..my guess is that he will decide that cutting rates yet again is too much of a risk for MMFs..but hey, what will equities think of that..they will tank of course and thereby abort the latest bear market rally prematurely..assuming of course that everything else remains unchanged!

Horatio
(11/04/2002; 20:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 88766)
Controlled descent,I don't think so...
Treas. Sec O'Neal first said he would let the Dollar seek its market level,then after he was informed that a Treas, Sec.remarks should be more vague so as not to cause big swings in Dollar value he recanted and issued a strong Dollar position. I take that as a policy that the Dollar should drop in a steady manor .The latest stock rally is nothing more than Bush giving the DEMS a little of thier own market manipulation just like Klinton and Rubin did for political reasons.The idea is to make the populace "feel-good",at least until after the election.All is well and we are on the way to "recovery"'so don't blame Bush for anything.This will continue until election results are verified,I figure until about the 3rd week in Nov.
Then the Dollar will head south ,the market will head south,Gold will soar and we will resume the process of vomit -up the excesses of Klinton era.It was a sickening sight to see Klinton making a political rally of a memorial service.It just offends the sensibilities of every one born before the sixties.They ran the White house like a FRAT house and think nothing matters except winning.I suspect vomit-up may not be enough to rid the country of this virus but a good dose of castor -oil will also be needed to cleanse the body politic.
I thought it quite interesting that Jessie Ventura was giving the press a piece of his mind ,when all of a sudden someone "pulled the plug" on him and off the air he went due to "technical difficulties".Jessie may not be so suave ,but he is honest and speaks from the heart.Ill take him anyday compared to the bums he ran against.Just my observations....
Liberty Head
(11/04/2002; 20:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 88767)
$$$322.1$$$
When gold was $35 an ounce, the U.S. currency was backed by silver certificates and silver coins. Now, the price of gold is relative only to paper, ink, and plated zinc slugs.
Interestingly, 35 Silver dollars are now still worth about one ounce of gold. I think we are now getting a better bargain on gold, then in 1960. Also, I can earn $320 today, easier than I could earn $35 in 1960.
Sundeck
(11/04/2002; 20:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88768)
$$$$345.0$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

In Australia, no, because gold now is about twice as expensive in Aussie dollars as it was then. In the US, yes; in fact it is probably a bit better value now than then. However it is good value in both countries because the world financial system is more precariously poised now than then, the excesses have been greater, and gambling in "sewage" wasn't around then. Finally, the US is now heading into the uncertainties of a war, while then we were heading towards stalemate in the Vietnam conflict. Enough said...

Sundeck
Zhisheng
(11/04/2002; 21:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 88769)
$$$330.0$$$
By the late 1960's it had become clear to many of the thoughtful that the US was some way along the old "Road to Ruin the Romans ran", via "panem and circenses" (bread and circuses in Roman times, Government welfare and sports events in our times), and via foreign wars. Inflation was inevitable and the price of gold had to increase. Investment in gold was a way to preserve the value of ones accumulated liquid capital.

Now the US is nearing the terminus of that "Road to Ruin" and buying gold becomes a means for not merely capital preservation, but for personal and family survival. The prospective consequences of buying gold have become considerably higher.
Kodie
(11/04/2002; 21:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88770)
A bit of nostalgia ...
steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 88748)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

i dont know if it is or not. I wasnt even in my teens . However the federal reserve sure has pinted alot of fiat dollars since then so it seems like it is to me at the moment.
_______________________________________

I was nearly 30 in the late 60's. In 1973 I bought a hole-in-the-wall restaurant as a second source of income from a Chinese guy for 15,000. He was buying gold hand over fist at the time. I could have cared less. For me, at that time, the only way to make money was through labor .. hard work, sweat of the brow so to speak. I did make money on the restaurant. I sold it a year later for 25,000 and during the time I owned it, I bought tires for my car and other little things. The Chinese guy got really wealthy on the gold. He ended up building a rather large Chinese restaurant in Washington State with his profits.

Then again, in 1977-78 I was selling real estate and was working with a Chinese customer from San Francisco. He turned a small investment in silver into a 300 unit apartment house in Houston. Again, to me, it was all "playing the stock market" which I was opposed to. Again, I couldn't have cared less.

Finally, in 1998, the kids raised and no debt ... I looked at precious metals. I studied it for a year or so, and decided the only wealth a guy could really have was something in possession. I started buying physical gold and silver and never looked back until last summer when I traded all of my silver across the board for gold.

Gold is not a get rich quick scheme. It's just the best way to have a store of wealth, at any price. Wish I would have recognised it when I was younger. Now, fortunately, gold is going to go to the moon.
Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 21:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 88771)
Ford, GM and Chrysler : 3 way pile-up
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1678629But the drop did not alter Chrysler's view of the U.S. auto industry's price war as economically irresponsible, and executives said they would still try to keep their deals less costly than those from GM and Ford Motor Co. F.N

Last month "the gap between the incentive level of GM and Ford and us became huge," Chrysler President Dieter Zetsche told Reuters in an interview. "Obviously there are some levels of a gap where its getting tough for us to stay successful."

Chrysler's 31 percent decline in October sales versus a year ago gave it a U.S. market share of 11.5 percent, 1.7 percentage points below its figure for the year to date. While GM and Ford also suffered about a 30 percent drop in sales compared with a record-setting month a year ago, their market shares were much healthier, with GM actually running ahead of its share for the year.

For the past year, GM has pursued a strategy of gaining market share through incentives such as interest-free loans, an array of cash rebates and its current "triple-zero" program of no down payment, no interest and no payments for three months. The plans have cost GM billions of dollars, but have also helped the automaker boost its sales and its profits.
------------
Schroer also said while incentives had played a role in boosting industry sales for much of the past year, a larger boost had come from home mortgage refinancing, which allowed thousands of consumers to free up money for new vehicles. He said refinancing began to slow in September, and that automakers would have to adjust accordingly.

"This nuclear level of incentives that did generate volume that could perhaps pay for the discounts -- we feel strongly that game is over," he said.

"We would love to see the level of incentives modified to a level that had some degree of economic sense to the bottom line of the company. Just buying market share to say you've got a share number is not economically rationale and in the interest of our shareholders."
__________________
Could see a lot of unemployment coming soon from auto sector.
Zhisheng
(11/04/2002; 21:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88772)
New York Board of Trade Dollar Index
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iThe dollar index has fallen below 106 again.
Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 21:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 88773)
Credit Card mania spreading around the World
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DJ16Dj01.htmlLONDON - Consumers in emerging markets have discovered the credit card - with a vengeance. In China, where credit cards were unknown not long ago, plastic transactions have hit a staggering US$200 billion per year.

While this is good news for business, at least in the short term, the boom in credit-card use in emerging markets has resulted in an alarming rise in household debt, and fraud is rife, a report by independent market analyst Datamonitor has found.

Deregulation by emerging-markets governments and simplification of the credit-card application process have resulted in consumers taking advantage of the new lines of credit open to them, borrowing up to their full credit limit. This sudden rush in borrowing has prompted concerns that consumer debt may spiral out of control, especially in China, Thailand and South Korea.

In South Korea, household debt grew 20.3 percent in 2001. In Thailand, the National Economic and Social Development Board has warned that the rapid growth in consumer lending, particularly through the use of credit cards, could jeopardize the country's future economic stability.

In terms of number of transactions, the Chinese market is only fourth-largest, while Brazil and South Korea record much higher card usage. However, examining the value of transactions as opposed to the number of transactions, China is undoubtedly the largest, with more than $200 billion, while Brazil comes third, with $74 billion spent on credit cards.

The report names China, Brazil, Chile, India and Thailand as set to become the hottest markets for card issuance.
_________________
The world has learned our secret to prosperity!
Charge it!
No down payment. No interest. No payment ever!
Just default. Declare bankruptcy. Write it off.
Cytek
(11/04/2002; 21:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 88774)
$$$$ 324.60 $$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" Hmm,lets compare wages. In the late sixties minimum wage was $1.60 an hour while Gold was 21 times minimum wage. Now my Dad got a job at Ford's in 67' making $4.25 an hour as an electrician and was happy as a clam. This brings Gold to 8 times his hourly wages.

Now at present minimum wage is 5.15 which makes Gold 62 times the hourly wage. If you want to compare apples to apples (21x) then the present minimum wage should be at $15. And the 8 times Gold price brings a electrician wages to $40 an hour which sounds about right. However, the guy getting minimum wage is getting ripped of at present,relative to gold.
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 21:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 88775)
Consumers Weary and Leary � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:

Some Are Out of Jobs.

One reason consumers may be pulling back is that job layoffs and corporate firings stepped up again last month. According to a report issued today by the out placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, US companies more than doubled their planned job cuts last month. The monthly tally of planned cuts rose to 176,010, up 151% from the previous month.

What is and What isn't

As far as earnings are concerned, let's just say that what is reported as earnings (which always beat estimates) and the real bottom line numbers are two different stories. One is fiction and the other that goes unreported is non-fiction. It is the non-fiction number that investors should learn more about. It lines up with the rising layoffs. Companies don't fire workers if business conditions are improving.

It's The Big Boys - Not the Little Guys

This rally is looking more and more like a sucker's rally as Jim Sinclair has written in last evening's post. However, the suckers in this case may be the institutions since this rally has been mainly institutional in its genesis. This has been a big boy's rally; mainly fund managers playing with other people's money. Wall Street is still hoping they can draw the little guy back into the markets, but it hasn't happened so far. Fund flows were neutral as of the end of last week. Most of the little guy's money is going into bonds just at the time that the bond market appears that it has topped.


Black Blade: EXACTLY!!!!! Puplava nails it in an excellent report tonight. Well worth reading. Though he is more TA than I am (FA), "the song remains the same" (with apologies to Led Zeppelin). This market looks very ugly from both a TA and FA point of view. If you got time, definitely check out Jim's Market Wrap Up tonight. He covers much of what I do in the DMR as far as the overall economy and equities markets are concerned, but in greater detail. It is quite a bit of fun to read material like this when we are on the same page.

PCV1
(11/04/2002; 22:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88776)
$$$$ 336.8 $$$$
Early in my gold bug days, some time in the early '80s, I purchased 2 Krugerrands. Up till then I had held shares only.

I had them in my possession overnight and can still remember the weight in my hand and my feeling of wealth in those two coins. I had been underground at a few of the SA mines so had an appreciation of the sweat in their production.

The Krugerrands went back to the stockbroker's safe and I sold them at a modest profit a few weeks later. I purchased options on 10 more. I held those a couple of months and sold them again at a modest profit. I'm expecting a 'modest' rise in POG again.

I never forgot those coins and intend to buy 4 more, to hold.

The market is different now, I realise now that gold was in a bear market and my gold investments see-sawed over the years. I missed the Internet bubble and started buying mostly precious metal mutuals to add to my portfolio from 1996.

Your competition reminds me of that time and I feel that gold will again show a modest rise in the coming months. The difference from the early '80s though, is well documented by list members.

Enough of my introduction... and on to Sir Alan's predicament. Here is my prediction of the outcome of the FOMC meeting :

1. Leave rates alone. DOW falls as a rate cut had been built into the price.

2. Quarter Point. Disappointment because the market believes, that a quarter point is ineffectual and it won't be enough to mend the economy.

3. Half Point. Possibly a rise in the DOW but more likely selling on the news. In any case, an aggressive move will be building a deeper hole for the economy for the future.

Noticing that gold shares are rising on weakness in broad market shares...... often later in the trading day as the DOW fails to hold its own. POG is building on its inverse relationship to DOW.
Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 22:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 88777)
Job cuts surge in October
http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/04/news/economy/challenger_jobcuts.reut/index.htm
Challenger survey shows 176,000 planned job losses, the highest total since January.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Planned job cuts announced by U.S. companies rocketed to 176,010 in October, or more than 7,600 per business day, after falling to a 22-month low in September, an employment consulting firm said Monday. The October figure is the second-highest of the year, behind only January's 212,704, according to the monthly job-cut survey released by Challenger Gray & Christmas Inc., which tracks daily job-cut announcements. The October total is 151 percent higher than September's count of 70,057 planned cuts, which was the lowest monthly total since November 2000.

Black Blade: Yep, the "Bone Pile" continues to grow. I do like the typical CNBC infomercial spin: "better than expected". As if that means "all is well". I wonder if Ron Popeil will ever be an anchor on CNBC? You know, the guy who came up with the "pocket fisherman" and "Chia Pets".

Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 22:21:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88778)
Factory orders slip
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/rates/2002-11-03-fed_x.htm
Factory orders decline, but less than expected.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Orders for U.S. manufacturing goods sank 2.3 percent in September but the decline was milder than expected and was led by huge drops in demand for aircraft and communications equipment, the government said on Monday.

Black Blade: There we go. "Less than expected". I knew that had to come up somewhere. Still, factory orders are falling off which means we are slipping into a deepening recession!


Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 22:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88779)
Economists fear rate cut won't help
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/rates/2002-11-03-fed_x.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON � After sitting on the sidelines for nearly 11 months, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to cut interest rates Wednesday to try to pump some life into the deteriorating U.S. economy. But the question is: Will it work? Interest rates are at 41-year lows. Consumers have been buying homes and refinancing mortgages like crazy. Creditworthy businesses that want to borrow money can do so at rock-bottom interest rates, Credit card interest rates hit their floor more than a year ago. What's dragging the economy down has nothing to do with interest rates. Instead, there's been a massive loss of confidence by consumers and business owners over the past few months � something the Fed has little control over. "The issues of our economy have much more to do with terrorism, war, CEOs in handcuffs, malfeasance, dock strikes, insurance costs, energy costs, uncertainty about the election, trade protection," says Brian Wesbury, chief economist at Griffin Kubik Stephens and Thompson in Chicago. Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa., says that puts the Fed � and the economy � in a "worrisome" spot. "The Fed's the only game in town, but it doesn't have anything to put on the table," he says.


Black Blade: I agree � it won't make a damn bit of difference because it won't be enough. The Fed will have to cut the entire 1.75% to get anyones attention now. In other words � "GAME OVER".

Black Blade
(11/04/2002; 22:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88780)
Alaska oil pipeline remains shut following earthquake
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Trasp&ARTICLE_ID=160516
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Nov. 4 -- The trans-Alaska pipeline remained shut Monday following an earthquake of 7.9 magnitude that rocked central Alaska Sunday. BP PLC, a producer on Alaska's North Slope, confirmed it had shut in all but 5% of its 1 million b/d of oil production there. No damage to BP facilities or operations was reported, a spokeswoman in New York said, adding, "We're doing this just as a precaution." The quake reportedly triggered a detection system, and the pipeline was automatically shut down at 5:13 p.m. EST Sunday, said a spokesman for the US Department of Transportation's Research and Special Programs Administration in Washington, DC. No pipeline leaks have been reported, and Aleyska Pipeline told federal officials that it was using helicopters with infrared detectors to survey for any possible underground leaks, Delcambre said.


Black Blade: This could slightly reduce a build up of inventories. Meanwhile, heating oil supplies look to be very low as winter heating season gets underway and NatGas supply is starting to decline faster. Another energy crisis could be developing in coming months.

Blackjack
(11/04/2002; 22:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88781)
Mr Softie not out of the woods yet
http://www.guardian.co.uk/microsoft/Story/0,2763,830250,00.htmlThe European commission yesterday fired a shot across the bows of Microsoft, warning that the software firm's US court victory last week would have little bearing on its monopoly investigation.

The comments suggested that the legal challenges to Microsoft's dominance of the industry are not yet over, despite the US antitrust case drawing to a close.

Executives at Microsoft breathed a sigh of relief when Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly endorsed the key points of a settlement that found the company guilty of abusing its dominant market position. In doing so she threw out demands from nine US states for tougher penalties.

But Amelia Torres, a spokeswoman for the EC, said the Washington case was not directly comparable to the European investigation. She said: "The competition commissioner, Mario Monti, has been saying for months that our case is quite different from a factual point of view to the case in the US. We also have our own rules to uphold."

The EC is in the final stages of the inquiry but she said it was too early to predict when it would be concluded. Other EU officials have said it will reach a preliminary ruling by the end of the year and a final decision in early 2003.

The EC could impose tougher sanctions on Microsoft and in theory fine it 10% of global sales.

Microsoft also faces private lawsuits from AOL Time Warner and Sun Microsystems as well as the threat of an appeal from the nine US states seeking harsher penalties.
_____________
I don't think the EU likes Mr Softie.
TownCrier
(11/04/2002; 23:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88782)
Let it be known... COMEX open for trade on Nov 11th Veteran's Day
I saw some posted uncertainty about this. In case the issue hasn't been resolved yet, trading will commence as usual on Veteran's Day (barring unforeseen events).

Problem solved.

Does Gandalf want to stick with the new Tuesday deadline? It's not my call to make, I'm just an impartial conduit of info.

R.
Horatio
(11/04/2002; 23:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88783)
One of my Favorites
http://www.fiendbear.com/
Gandalf the White
(11/04/2002; 23:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88784)
THE POG CONTEST ending date !! <;-) THANK YOU T.C. !!
TownCrier (11/04/02; 23:02:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 88782)
Let it be known... COMEX open for trade on Nov 11th Veteran's Day
====

I believe that we should both HONOR and HONOUR our Vets and the "Remembrance Day" HOLIDAY, SOOOO we will stick with the REVISED ending date of SETTLEMENT on Tuesday, November 12th. The entry DEADLINE will be MONDAY, November 11th at HIGH NOON !!
<;-)
Christian
(11/04/2002; 23:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88785)
Bundesbank gold swap- commodity gold to credit creation gold.
The Treasury used the ESF to swap commodity gold with the Bundesbank in order to sell this gold to reprice it as credit creation gold. Credit creation gold trades at 30+- commodity gold between central bankers. This price difference gives the banks the right to be in gold. Since they create the money out of nothing the increased price means nothing to them. The Mexican bailout was financed in this way.-- China is going to let its currency implode (defalue). Gold is an underground currency in China, as it is in many ME countries. Oil wants gold and China is willing to trade gold for oil under one condition. That condition being that it's exports be priced in gold. Because China holds more $ reserves then it holds its own currency reserves it is willing to let its currency devalue. It is no loss to them nor to the people of China. The war in Iraq is going to end up like Vietnam. We will claim early victory and end up in a war that has no end until we move out. Since the banksterd finance both sides, a long war is guaranteed.
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 00:30:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88786)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
Second UPDATE (with former revisions also) <;-)
as of 00:25 Denver time 11/05/02
VOTING day in the USA ! DO IT!

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High of $319.3 and a low of $317.5 !
(looks as if Sir Steady is "KING of the HILL" at this point !) <;-)


ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740

$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748


===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

Don't wait tooooo long as the guessing rush is going to start now, and YOUR price may be taken by a early entry.
<;-)
slingshot
(11/05/2002; 00:39:55 MDT - Msg ID: 88787)
$$$$$$$$$323.7$$$$$$$
Going for the Gold contestMissed that boat too! I think it is the same. The attitude towards gold now by the general public is that it is a poor investment at $318.0 for they will not let lose of the paper money. In the late 1960's I do not think most people payed any attention to the POG. Thirty five dollars was plenty of money for the average J6P. I do not remember any gold coins in circulation.
Slingshot-------------<>
The Invisible Hand
(11/05/2002; 01:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 88788)
Gandalf, here's your obedient Servant - $$$$ 8,752.0$$$$
The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****

Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 01:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88789)
WorldCom errors exceed $7 Billion
http://www.nypost.com/business/61342.htmA damaging report by former U.S. Attorney General Richard Thornburgh on the financial mismanagement that led to the collapse of WorldCom says "there were improper and unsupported adjustments that go beyond the more than $7 billion," the failed telecom has acknowledged.

Thornburgh said former WorldCom CEO Bernard Ebbers "dominated" WorldCom throughout the course of his career with the company.

The former U.S. Attorney, who was tapped by the Justice Department to investigate accounting fraud at WorldCom, filed his allegations in a 122-page report in New York bankruptcy court yesterday.

WorldCom filed the largest-ever bankruptcy case in July.

Thornburgh also alleged that Ebbers had "personal influence" over cash bonuses that were awarded to WorldCom's staffers.
____________
Biggest bankruptcy keeps getting bigger.
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 01:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88790)
Asian Tiger on Strike
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=worldnews&StoryID=1679547SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's largest car maker and 165 other workplaces were hit by strikes Tuesday, as unions escalated protests over working conditions ahead of December's presidential election.

About 120,000 workers from the country's most militant union began a strike at 1 p.m. (0400 GMT) to protest against proposals to shorten the working week that they fear will also cut incomes, a union leader said.

"We don't know how long it will last, but we'll fight until the government accepts our demand," Sohn Nark-koo, a spokesman for the Korea Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) told Reuters.

Among companies affected by the KCTU walkout were Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, Ssangyong Motor and unlisted Kumho Tire, and union officials said the action could spread further in coming days.

The walkout broadened a strike begun Monday by 15,000 civil servants protesting against both the proposal to shorten the working week and a government ban on public sector unions.

Some analysts say the stoppages represent the beginnings of a wave of labor unrest before the December 19 election, when South Korea will pick a successor to its retiring president, Kim Dae-jung.
____________
S Korea was one of the few bright spots.
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 01:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88791)
Who's on first?
New York, Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Nine days before the first scheduled meeting of the Public Accounting Oversight Board, the group has no budget, no office, no staff -- and maybe no leader.

Four separate investigations are focusing on Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt and his appointment of former FBI Director William Webster as chairman of the group, intended to restore investor confidence after the collapse of Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc.
__________
Our tax dollars hard at work.
Belgian
(11/05/2002; 02:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88792)
DOLLAR > DOWN ...... EURO > UP
Analysts (?) are rushing to find a myriad of explanations about this morning's euro-spike and dollar-flight. Is it for (geo)political or economical reasons ? But since this globe is on an almost political-economy, it is for both reasons, that the dollar must give way. Not just a blip but a trend-continuation ! Gold's adversary ($) versus Gold's friend (�), both circling around the precious oil.

Euroland and Turkey arrived at a very, very delicate and decisive moment !

Some OBL people have been eliminated in Yemen.
Israel will soon be directionaless.
Saddam Hussein proposes to destroy some weaponary (humhum).

Midterm elections + IR-decisions are going to spice are week.
GoldnSilver2002
(11/05/2002; 02:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 88793)
$$$$$ 340.00 $$$$$$$$$$
Well i love this new shanghai exchange giving new support to the real gold market!Just think,april 1st(april fools day)the japanese get their wake up call and the flood begins.If gold is at 325 when the dow breaks look out!!!Is it tsunami season?Yup i smell hurricane,financial hurricane a brewin!

$$$$$$ 340.00 $$$$$$$
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 03:30:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88794)
Senate Session Clouded by Minnesota Replacement
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20021104/pl_nm/election_lameduck_dc_1
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura dealt another wild card on Monday into what already was shaping up as a potentially chaotic Senate session in the next few weeks as lawmakers struggle to complete this year's business. With control of the divided Senate teetering in the balance, Ventura named fellow independent Dean Barkley to temporarily fill the Senate seat of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, who died last month in a plane crash. Aides to several Minnesota lawmakers described Barkley as a complete independent, who may not align himself with either Republicans or Democrats when Congress convenes in a lame duck session next week to try to complete the $2 trillion federal budget and other unfinished work. With the reliable support of independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont, Democrats would have the majority with 50 votes, while Republicans would control 49, and Barkley would be an unknown.

Black Blade: Actually, I find this very funny. The Dems embarrass their party with a sham memorial for Sen. Wellstone (actually turns out to be a taxpayer funded political rally for Mondale). That enrages Jesse Ventura who with his wife storm out of the "memorial" after Republican politicians are booed while giving their condolences. Jesse gets back by appointing an independent as Senator until the winner takes his place in the Senate. This gives the Republicans control and shelved legislation (such as the "energy bill") and judicial nominees are quickly confirmed during a 2 and half month window of opportunity. The moral of the story � if you are advertising to have a solemn memorial, then have a solemn memorial, especially if the governor is no nonsense Jesse Ventura.

Spartacus
(11/05/2002; 04:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 88795)
Japan monetary base
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021104/economy_japan_money_2.html
TOKYO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Japan's monetary base grew at a
double-digit pace for the 14th straight month in October but the rise continued to slow, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Tuesday. The monetary base -- money in circulation plus bank deposits at the central bank -- grew by 19.8 percent from a year earlier compared with a rise of 21.4 percent in September.
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 05:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88796)
Whaddya Know!!! - From Cash to Trash!!!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The Euro is worth more than the U.S. dollar. From cash to trash!!! Meanwhile, Gold is knocking on $320 an ounce and could easily power on past even if the equities markets surge today. Most people know that the recent stock market rally is simply a sham powered by short covering and institutional bankers. The individual is bailing out (note outflows by Trim Tabs) and insider selling at a brisk pace at a rate 2 to 1. The markets are rallying because no one else is in the game anymore so its easy to move the markets. The Lemmings are plowing into real estate even as the bubble is about to implode. After all real estate prices can't keep rising faster than income forever before it comes undone in spectacular fashion. Looks like its going to be an "entertaining" day on Wall Street today and the political game should be fun too as maybe less than half registered voters go to the polls.

- Black Blade
rsjacksr
(11/05/2002; 05:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88797)
Contest
$$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$f What! Am I being punished? One day. Just one day that I don't read the forum and there is a contest. Well, I'll have none of that. My usual guess is $$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$$. Maybe, possibly, I'll be right, just once... probably NOT. But It's worth the try. Good day Ladies and Knights.
Hipplebeck
(11/05/2002; 05:25:53 MDT - Msg ID: 88798)
stock markets
Well, I must say, the republican team players were much more disciplined than I thought they would be.
The sell-off at the end of the day yesterday indicates to me that there were some early efforts to get out ahead of the crowd, but I expected greed to get the best of more people than it did. Today will tell the tale.
We are lucky to be alive at this time in history.
The beginning of the fall of the greatest empire ever.
The Dark Lord is preparing a monumental harvest.
Which side are you on?
Where do you place your faith?
Paper assets represent faith in the worldly system,
Gold represents faith in truth and justice.
techbull....
(11/05/2002; 06:58:01 MDT - Msg ID: 88799)
$$$$$372.50$$$$$
Given the current situation in the world. The excesses of the last two decades. The unprecedented derivatives exposure of all the top banks in the world. The real question is, are we about to see an unprecedented increase in the price of GOLD?
sangrelli
(11/05/2002; 07:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 88800)
my prediction
$$$$$327.5$$$$$
I think the gold bull is just now getting it's legs. The wall of worry is set to fustrate all except the most indifferent. My defense is to take a core possition and wait, and try not to go crazy. The reason gold will migrate higher is lack of confidense in currencies on a world scale. Reason will slowly occur to people that the governments can't preach a clean ballance sheet to business and not set an example themselves.The fashion in investing is changing someday soon one can admit to being bullish on gold with out reprisal.It is getting better, 2 years ago I admitted to my fellow stockbrokers I was bullish on gold and I was looked at as if I was a fool to say such a thing.Great form keep up the good work.
cheers
greg
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/05/2002; 07:42:31 MDT - Msg ID: 88801)
USAGOLD INTERNATIONAL -- NO VAT -- A partnership that's right for you.
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.html

You are world-wise and well-connected,
with actions matching your vision beyond the horizon.

This information page was made for our clients and friends just like you.

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and,
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We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price and GET what you pay for!

sector
(11/05/2002; 08:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88802)
Bear Stearns Alone in Forecasting No Rate Cut
Recall that Former Fed Governor Waybe Angell is CHM.And Mr. Angell is no friend of Greenspan.

I'm wondering. Bear Stearns WAS right during the last DOW downdraft, claiming their trader "Hit the sell key" by mistake.

Perhaps the good Angell has heard some news from his former buddies still at the Fed [those that oppose a cut]. Angell never did approve of interventions according to careful reading of the FOMC transcripts...thus he was always at odds with the Master of the Universe.

Don't be surprise at no rate cut. Of course such a move will hammer the DOW pretty quickly so the Prubear guys may be in for a launch along with those who are playing the HUI/DOW arbitrage.
Albatros
(11/05/2002; 08:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88803)
$$$$317.0$$$$
As much as all logic points to POG liftoff the DARK FORCES persist in tipping logic off the playing field.
sector
(11/05/2002; 09:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88804)
Bush May Change Economic Team After Elections
Lawrence Lindsay on the way out? "Strong Dollar" Policy Out Too?Tue Nov 5, 3:57 AM ET

WASHINGTON -- President Bush (news - web sites) is considering a shake-up of his economic team, with Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites) Chairman Harvey Pitt and White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey as the two most likely casualties, people familiar with the deliberations told The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Pitt hurt himself with the White House by not informing administration officials about potential problems in William Webster's work as audit committee chairman with a company accused of accounting improprieties and shareholder fraud. The former FBI (news - web sites) and CIA (news - web sites) director had been recruited by White House Chief of Staff Andy Card to head a panel charged with reforming the accounting industry.

Business groups also have been increasing the pressure on the White House to force Mr. Pitt's resignation. The Pitt imbroglio has slowed the SEC's promulgation of new rules overseeing corporate behavior, and "put a blanket on economic activity," says Bruce Josten, a U.S. Chamber of Commerce (news - web sites) executive.

Mr. Lindsey's problems are different. Capitol Hill has lost confidence in him because he mixes economic and political advice, a purview normally reserved for White House political director Karl Rove. In September, Mr. Lindsey pressed House members to go forward with an investor tax-cut package because it could help them in the midterm elections. But House officials scrapped the idea when moderates refused to vote on any measure that Democrats could claim was a sop to the wealthy.

Mr. Lindsey said he has "no plans to change what I'm doing." Mr. Pitt has regularly said he intends to stay on his job.

Staff changes after midterm elections are common in all administrations, and Mr. Bush's economic team has long been expected to undergo a scrubbing. So far, Mr. Bush has avoided blame for the economic slowdown, but pressure will mount if the economy continues to falter in the time leading up to his 2004 re-election.

Wall Street Journal Staff Reporter Jeanne Cummings and Bob Davis contributed to this report.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

This story is much bigger that it appears. Lawrence Lindsay is a key link to the past and the long-in-the-tooth, "Strong Dollar" Policy.

I don't think that any INCOMING economic advisor team would accept what would be an impossible mandate to continue an unsustainable "Strong Dollar" policy. Recall that the National Association of Manufacturers [NAM] HATES the policy.

Therefore the end of the "Strong Dollar" policy may now be at hand.

This same reasoning applies to the coming replacement of the Fed Chair. What new Fed chairman would accept the job of selling off the last ingots in the Treasury only to face the cameras and "Explain" how it happened. ..all the while envisioning Greenspan sunning himself on a Cancun Beach surrounded by bikinis and daquris.

IF this week's forecast Fed Funds rate cut also fails, them we know that the internal revolt at the Fed has won.

Time to get gold is running out.
TownCrier
(11/05/2002; 09:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 88805)
The Central Bank Insider... lives!
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/archiveindex.htmlHere you will find a greatly improved index for access to the current CB Insider (dated Nov. 4th) in addition to the monthly archives.

If you find a noteworthy nugget, don't be shy about sharing it with the forum. As usual, I have tried to highlight some of the more provocative points in red.

R.
Trapper
(11/05/2002; 09:30:05 MDT - Msg ID: 88806)
Gold guess
I don't think all the positives for gold will have time to work, I belive gold will go up up and away but it will take time. The big boys still have ammo to shoot it down if it gets going before they want it to. So my guess is $$$$319.90$$$$. Good luck to all and live small.
RJ
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 09:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 88807)
WARNING on the POG CONTEST --- RULE #7 !!!!
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

===
Please note the above RULE ! OK, it was the last RULE, BUT PERHAPS it is the most important RULE !!!!! YOU MUST answer THIS QUESTION, and then you may expound on anyother things you wish !! HINT --- Some of you POSTERS, may wish to try again in another post, [ BUT NOT a new prognosticaion. <;-) ]

Mountain Top
(11/05/2002; 09:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88808)
Contest

$$$$322.2$$$$
Gold at $35.00 per ounce in the late sixties is approximately equivalent to gold at $350.00 an ounce today. Today we are dealing in what is roughly paper dimes and still calling them dollars. Therefore, gold at todays prices is a bargain as you all are aware.
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 09:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88809)
WELCOME Sir Albatros !!
Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 88803)
---
I don't remember seeing you here before, and I don't know how I could have missed you, (with that six foot plus wingspan). If you are not new, you must have kept your wings folded up well.
BTW -- you might wish to think about an answer to the RULE #7 Question -- This way I get you to Post again !
<;-)
rsjacksr
(11/05/2002; 10:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 88810)
Contest (Price prognostication)
$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$See what happens when you don't read the rules.... Gandalf will insist that you do it again. Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At todays prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 10:08:23 MDT - Msg ID: 88811)
WELCOME Sir Mountain Top !!
Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 88808) Contest
===
WELCOME and WELL DONE !
Lots of new posters coming out now, as I do not remember seeing you before --OR sinility has arrived for the Wiz !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 10:12:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88812)
HAIL "speed reading" Sir Rsjacksr !!! <;-)
rsjacksr (11/05/02; 10:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 88810)
Contest (Price prognostication)
$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$
See what happens when you don't read the rules.... Gandalf will insist that you do it again. Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At todays prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some.
+++++++
ROFL my pointy hat off !!
PERHAPS Sir Rajacksr you could RE-READ Rule #7 AGAIN !
This way I get you to post for the THIRD time !
<;-)
Boilermaker
(11/05/2002; 10:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 88813)
Election 2002
Sector, Thanks for the Greenspan retirement snapshot, ie., "envisioning Greenspan sunning himself on a Cancun Beach surrounded by bikinis and daquris."

Looks like da boyz have the DOW and gold well in hand for the election. Just finished voting and was thinking about the next election, 2004. If the Republicans win the House and Senate it will surely be their last time at bat for at least 20 years. If the Dems win the Senate and/or the House then look for gridlock (probably a good thing) but still a rout of the Republicans in 2004. As a goldbug I'm inclined to lean Republican as the lesser of two evils but a divided government might be safer. Oh well, I'll just kick back tonight and root for some of the locals.

Remember that Roosevelt tried to pack the Supreme Court when they got in the way of his socialist programs. I expect that our only protection from the corrupt scoundrels in the Executive and Legislative branches will be the Court. Hopefully they will rise to the challenge.

Cheers

Boilermaker


rsjacksr
(11/05/2002; 10:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88815)
Contest (Price prognostication)
$$$$$$$$ 339.00 $$$$$$$Once more into the void.
For the third and I hope the final time. I HOPE.
AND OF COURSE THE ANSWER TO THE BURNING #7 QUESTION IS NO. Buying gold now is not like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's. It's better. How's them apples Sir Gandalf?
Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At today's prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some.
cyberbat
(11/05/2002; 10:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 88816)
parity at last
Euro-1.0005 against U.S. .9995 What does this portend Aristotle ?
Cyberbat
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(11/05/2002; 10:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88817)
Euro to feature in Queen's Speech
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/021105/80/ddyab.htmlLONDON (Reuters) -Top cabinet minister Robin Cook has muddied the waters around possible euro entry, saying the single currency would be mentioned in next week's Queen's Speech which outlines legislative plans for the next year.


Cook said the text of the speech the Queen will deliver to parliament was finalised on Tuesday but declined to say whether it would include a specific bill to pave the way for a referendum on joining Europe's single currency.


"Sure, the euro will be there and I think you will be interested in it. But there you are, you will have to wait and see," Cook told a select group of reporters.

Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 11:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 88818)
US troops out of Pakistan?
http://www.FreeRepublic.com/focus/news/782759/postsISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Hardline Islamic parties said Tuesday they have reached an agreement with a pro-democracy bloc, giving them the parliamentary majority needed to form a coalition government and choose the next prime minister.

The agreement is a blow to President Gen. Pervez Musharraf because his supporters were left out of the coalition, but a spokesman for the pro-Musharraf party refused to concede defeat, saying his group was still working to form a majority and was confident it would succeed.

The religious and pro-democracy parties said they would announce their choice for prime minister later Tuesday, but officials in both camps say the top spot would likely go to Fazl-ur Rahman, the head of Jamiat-e-ulema Islam, or Party of Islamic clerics.

The pro-Musharraf Quaid-e-Azam faction of the Pakistan Muslim League won the most seats in the Oct. 10 elections, but fell short of a majority, and the parties have been jockeying to form a coalition ever since.

The grouping of religious parties, called the United Action Forum, or Muthida Majlis-e-Amal, came in third on the strength of an anti-American, pro-Taliban platform.
____________
Islamists did well in Turkey and now in Pakistan. Will US troops
be asked to leave Pakistan soon? What about Pak nukes?

Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 11:28:59 MDT - Msg ID: 88819)
Service Sector growth almost zero
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1682245The Institute for Supply Management said its monthly index of non-manufacturing activity fell in October to 53.1 from 53.9 in September, above forecasts for a decline to 51.7 and above the key 50 mark which shows the sector is still expanding.

"The report was consistent with very sluggish growth, but we haven't reached the point where it's consistent with negative growth," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast Ltd.

Two components that are key barometers of future growth raised warning flags. New orders slowed in October to 50.9 in October from 52.3 -- the lowest point since January. And employment continued to contract.

"New orders are increasing slower and slower, and if the trend continues, it's not good," Ralph Kauffman, head of the survey group for the ISM, told reporters in a conference call.
______________
When auto sales tank, then we drift into recession.
VanRip
(11/05/2002; 11:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 88820)
$$$$ 318.40 $$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No. The urgency to own gold now is greater than it was in the 1960's, regardless whether it costs more or less in dollars. Unfolding severe economic and social problems demand that one protect his assets now in the best possible way - gold.
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 11:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 88821)
Hail Sir Rsjacksr !!
LOVE "them apples" !
Thanks
<;-)
Gold N Rule
(11/05/2002; 11:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 88822)
"Gold's Gains Linked To Dropping Dollar"
Good Articlehttp://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={4F1ED624-C85B-4E59-B509-4277238D61E7}&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

Gold's gains linked to dropping dollar
Bullion bounces as elections, interest rates take toll

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:02 PM ET Nov. 5, 2002


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- What's wrong with this picture? Gold -- along with the shares of the
companies that mine it -- is rising even as the overall stock market stages an autumn rally.

More often than not, gold-related investments fall when the broader market
shines because they represent low confidence in the financial system. This time, a sliding dollar is assisting gold
in its gains, against the improbable backdrop of rallying U.S. stocks.

In the past five days, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU: news, chart, profile) has gained 6 percent vs. a 3
percent gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX: news, chart, profile), which represents the overall market.

Gold's underlying spot price (38099902: news, chart, profile), meanwhile, has risen 2 percent in the past 10 days,
flirting with $320 an ounce. On Tuesday, the euro, resuming a 10-month comeback, was quoted at more than $1,
the European currency's first time at that level since late July. See full story.

Gold is nearly always the antithesis of the stock market. In the almost six-month rough patch for stocks that
began in mid-May and ran through early October, gold's value held steady as the stock market declined 26
percent. See chart.

Gold's role as the market's polar opposite doesn't always play out. Andy Smith, precious metals analyst at
Mitsui Global in London, tells me that in the 300 working days that followed Sept 10, 2001, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average (INDU: news, chart, profile) has risen 137 days. On those days, the Philly Gold Index rose 59
days and the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) of mining shares gained 57 days. Gold itself, as
measured by the afternoon London fixing price, gained on 55 of those days.

"So about 40 percent of Wall Street up days since Sept 10, 2001, saw a rise in gold shares or bullion," says
Smith, one of the most respected precious metal analysts.

James Turk, founder of electronic payments system Goldmoney.com and a longtime gold analyst and newsletter
editor, sees the seeds of a lasting gold rally in the works.

"More important is gold's relationship to the dollar," Turk said Tuesday. "Normally a
lower dollar means higher gold prices, which explains what is happening now. It also
explains why the potential for gold looks so bullish here. The dollar is exceptionally
weak."



(Read the full article it's all good for gold!).......J.R.


Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 11:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 88823)
S Korea strike news
http://asia.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/11/05/korea.strike/SEOUL, South Korea --Workplaces across South Korea have ground to a halt as about 120,000 workers went on strike over government plans to shorten the work week.

Around 165 workplaces were hit by the strikes, which began at 1pm (0400 GMT), protesting government plans to implement a 5-day work week that workers fear will result in reduced incomes and public holidays.

"We don't know how long it will last, but we'll fight until the government accepts our demand," Reuters news agency reported Sohn Nark-koo, a spokesman for the Korea Confederation of Trade Union (KCTU), to have said.

The strike call by the 640,000-strong KCTU has hit some of the country's biggest companies -- with workers from auto giants Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors and Ssangyong Motor taking part.

Production at Hyundai began winding down on Friday, with lost production of more than 10,000 vehicles costing the car manufacturer around 150 billion won ($123 million) by close of business on Tuesday.

South Korea's labor minister has called the strike "illegal" -- Seoul does not allow public servants to form unions. Police have arrested 600 civil servants and is holding them for interrogation for breaching laws banning public sector work stoppages, Reuters reported.
____________
S Korea still has a 6 day work week. Workers want a 40 hour
5 day week. S Korea market up 4% regardless. Somebody is in
denial.
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 11:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88824)
Berlin declares Bankruptcy! Unemployment 17%!
Berlin (dpa) - The Berlin city government on Tuesday admitted de facto bankruptcy and announced it was taking legal action to force Germany's federal government to pay for a bail-out.

Ruled by a leftist alliance of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) and the former East German communists (PDS), the city is staggering with 46 billion euros (46 billion dollars) public debt, Finance Senator Thilo Sarrazin said.

Sarrazin said this meant the city was paying 2.2 billion euros a year just to cover interest and he warned that the city's total debt would climb to 58 billion euros by 2006.

Berlin has a population of 3.5 million but the city has lost much of its industrial base and unemployment is currently 17 per cent.

Given the federal government's refusal to pay off Berlin's debts, Sarrazin said the city was taking legal action in Germany's Federal Constitutional Court to aimed at proving Berlin was incapable of shouldering the burden alone.

Germany's Basic Law, the federal constitution, stipulates there should be ``equalization'' between financially strong and weak federal states, the Laender. Berlin, a city-state, is one of Germany's 16 Laender.

Under this constitutional arrangement annual payments are made from wealthy states, such as Bavaria and Hesse, to poorer regions such as the Saarland, Berlin and Bremen.

The lawsuit will be based on a clause in Article 107 of the Basic Law which provides for one-off emergency grants to states.
_________________
Sounds like a depression to me. Wonder if the mainstream media
will give this much coverage?
chuck brown
(11/05/2002; 11:56:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88825)
gold and gold mutual fund prices
Hello All!
Glad to be a part of this!
Does anyone know why on certain days gold prices go up significantly(2%), but gold mutual funds (which invest in mining companies go down?
They almost always move together.
Thanks!!!
kludge
(11/05/2002; 12:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88826)
Blackjack - RE: Berlin
As it's a leftist alliance encountering serious financial difficulties, I wouldn't bet on any mainstream US news outlets covering it - at least until after the election anyway.
sector
(11/05/2002; 12:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88827)
Rate cut could flatten some money funds
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2002-11-04-money-funds_x.htm
11/04/2002 - Updated 11:44 PM ET

By John Waggoner, USA TODAY

While another Federal Reserve interest rate cut could boost the economy, it also could push some money market mutual funds into oblivion, as fees overwhelm returns and investors scurry to find higher yields elsewhere.

The Fed is widely expected to push its target for the federal funds rate � a key short-term interest rate � Wednesday to 1.5% from 1.75%. Money fund yields closely track the fed funds rate, minus the cost of running the fund. The fed funds rate is at a 40-year low after 11 consecutive cuts, and the average money fund is yielding just 1.21%, iMoneyNet says.

Another rate cut could force funds with high expenses and low returns out of business. IMoneyNet says 34 have yields of 0.25% or less. They might have to slash expenses to avoid having their share prices fall below $1 � "breaking the buck," in industry terms.

If a fund breaks a buck, investors could lose money and the fund could be shut down by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

A half-point rate cut to 1.25%, though not expected Wednesday, could make 75 money funds unprofitable, says Peter Crane, editor of iMoneyNet's Money Fund Report: "They can have a quick death by the SEC or a slow death by investors pulling money out."

Another fear: that funds, which typically invest in short-term, high-quality corporate and government debt, will buy riskier securities to get higher yields. That can be perilous, as in 1994, when a small money fund last broke a buck because it held derivatives.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Welcome to the world of disappearing money market fund assets. Thought you had "money" in there? Well�maybe not. When the "Buck gets broken" �you get broke.

Derivatives infect everything in finance these days including money market funds, so as the Fed Funds rate falls get ready for an explosion in money fund failures.

Not unlike the Berlin explosion of a $46 Billion bankruptcy debt now handed to the widows and orphans in the "wealthy" regions of Germany.

Does anyone there really expect savers to pay the bills of leftist loafers? It will be inflation folks. Print, print, print.


Lothar of the Hill People
(11/05/2002; 13:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88828)
$$$$ 325.00 $$$
In the 60's the families of my clan were content with the daily gathering and selling of the bat guano plentiful in our cavern home. This great and seeming boundless (and renewable) resourse was seen to all as the store of wealth for my people. Little was know or understood of the wealth preserving power of gold.

Over these years my clan has grown to a great number--we have outgrown our bat population. Every family has acquired cell phones and computers for every person--Electronics which use gold. And many have decorated themselves with gold jewelry. From our years of dependency upon the bat's, my people understand supply and demand.

Today, my clan seeks gold as a more reliable store of wealth and we observe that the guano/gold ratio has remained constant over these many years--as good for us today as it was in the 60s.

We will talk of this again. I am Lothar, of the Hill People.
mikal
(11/05/2002; 14:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 88829)
@Lothar of the Hill People
Waste not, want not. And when TSHTF, I hope you and your people will get a clean break. Soon, no more whistling in the dark for any of us.
RobotGuy
(11/05/2002; 14:27:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88830)
Sorry,.. I like this chart.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&freq=2∁idx=aaaaa%3A0∁=&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&type=2&time=20&style=320☆tdate=&enddate=&size=2&lf2=0&lf3=0Let me know if the url works properly.

Why do I like this chart? Let's just say it's a reminder off all those times my friends laughed at me when I told them to take their money and run and I know they didn't listen.

Oh by the way,.. take your money and convert it to physical really soon, we're obviously not in "market recovery" mode.


Cheers!

RobotGuy.
Lothar of the Hill People
(11/05/2002; 14:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 88831)
mikal
It is pleasing that the noble Mikal understands the plight of the Hill People. Your words of encouragement bring joy to the hearts of my kindred.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.
The Invisible Hand
(11/05/2002; 14:38:34 MDT - Msg ID: 88832)
Fed Chair replacement
sector, you asked in msg#: 88804
This same reasoning applies to the coming replacement of the Fed Chair. What new Fed chairman would accept the job of selling off the last ingots in the Treasury only to face the cameras and "Explain" how it happened. all the while envisioning Greenspan sunning himself on a Cancun Beach surrounded by bikinis and daquris.

What about Robert Rubin? Bah, he's a democrat.
Mid term elections would lead to policy change of federal gov. vis-�-vis gold? Why should Bush & Co. have waited two years to implement it?
Forget it. It will be business as usual (until thee revolution, that is.)
Waverider
(11/05/2002; 14:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 88833)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlVery Important Post...for your ease and comfort...and definitely not to be missed!
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 15:21:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88834)
Beautiful Gift � Safe Investment
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=34118037&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

In Japan, demand for gold has been boosted by the government's decision to end its guarantee of bank deposits. Japanese private investors now hold an average of US$5,000 in gold, twice as much as before. The trend seems to be replicated, albeit on a smaller scale, locally as more Malaysians buy gold as an investment, says Joan Lye, manager of the World Gold Council Malaysia. More specifically, the sale of Malaysia's first and only gold bullion coin, Kijang Emas, has gone up. The 24C pure gold coin, introduced last year, is sold at two local banks, Maybank and Bumiputra-Commerce Bank, in three denominations - 1oz, 1oz and 1oz. Minted in 999.9 to a thousand parts of pure gold, the Kijang Emas is priced at the daily gold market rate. Coins can be resold at the two banks' branches nationwide. "Asians have always had an affinity for gold. But today, apart from buying gold as jewellery, more Asians and Malaysians are buying gold as an investment.


Black Blade: Indeed, that is the word I get from some of my industry contacts. Physical gold (and platinum to some extent) are gaining interest in Asia. In fact physical purchases have been steadily increasing. It has been frustrating to read the gold bears lying about waning interest in precious metals in Asia, especially when I know for a fact that this is not the case. However, these clowns are looked upon as "professionals" who are somehow referred to as "respected" analysts. The Asian is more aware of the wealth preservation of gold than most people. After the Asia Contagion of the late 1990's those who held gold came through unscathed and some even emerged with great wealth as they bought out property owners for example. In my work in SE Asia, I was able to see for myself how the common people deep in isolated jungle villages held gold that they mined and yet they would laugh or even cringe when presented with their country's currency (some didn't even know what their currency looked like). In the final analysis, gold is money, the ultimate money according to over a billion of the planets people � especially so in Asia and even the most jaded "analyst" can't change that simple fact.

Tacitus
(11/05/2002; 15:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88835)
Chuck Brown's Gold vs. Gold Mutual Funds
Dear Chuck,

Great question. I believe the fundamental reason why the price of gold and gold mutual funds at times go in opposite directions is because they are not the same thing. Gold is a comodity and gold mutual funds are stocks. Just because the value of gold goes up doesn't mean the value of the companies goes up. This is because the value of a company depends upon more than the value of what it produces. There are other factors at play for a company. Hope that makes some sense.

On the other hand, when the economy is slowing, it shouldn't surprise us to see these types of mutual funds skyrocket as they did these past two years or so even though gold held in the 300's. In fact the Vanguard precious metals mutual fund had to be closed to new investors so many wanted to dump their money into it. That is fine, but I think a lot of the increase in their "value" was due to hype.

The main thing I keep in mind is that investing in this type of mutual fund is an investment in stocks, not gold. They are different animals.
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 15:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88836)
World Gold Council Claims Credit For Re-Opening Shanghai Exchange
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Nov-2002/shanghai051102.htm
Snippit:

It is a major step forward in the liberalisation of markets in that huge country as all gold trading has been under the control of the People's Bank of China for the past fifty years. The World Gold Council, apparently, acts as the sole foreign adviser to the Shanghai Gold Exchange which is the second exchange in the world to settle only in physical gold, the other being Turkey which started in 1995. Quite what advice the WGC had to offer is not forthcoming, but Albert Cheng, the regional director in Asia for the WGC, claims that the organisation has been active over many years in fostering a free market in gold trading in conjunction with the Chinese authorities. This is about as realistic as the statement attributed to the former chief executive Ms Fukuda that the World Gold Council played a pivotal role in persuading the central banks to accept the Washington Accord back in 1998.


Black Blade: It appears that the WGC has put aside the "Glow With Gold" jewelry marketing program in favor of marketing Gold as an investment vehicle. With Gold Fields CEO Chris Thompson running the WGC with help from a few select individuals, this could be an interesting development. With the global economy in the crapper, it should be interesting to see how the WGC plays its hand.

- Off to the gym!
Rock
(11/05/2002; 15:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 88837)
*Contest * Price Prognostication $$$$329.00$$$$$
Hi all, nice reading all the posts. You guys and gals are awesome! I hate missing some of the postings but I try and visit the castle as often as possible. I think buying gold now IS probably like that in the late 60's because although times change people generally don't change. The majority of investors back then were probably into the fad stocks of that time as they are today thus treating gold like an unwanted stepchild. Although I wasn't old enough to really grasp those times in the late 60's concerning the precious metals I can only assume and we all know what happens when one assumes.

Cheers,

Rock
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 16:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88838)
Hedge Funds may face new regulation
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873022434Thousands of US private investors who put money into hedge funds through life insurance policies could face demands for billions of dollars of back taxes following a ruling by the US Internal Revenue Service.

The investors were offered hedge funds as an investment choice by insurance companies which said the returns would be tax free.

But the US tax authorities have decided that "wrapping" the hedge funds into an insurance product did not give them tax-free status.

The IRS ruling, issued in response to an insurance company request, is another blow to the hedge fund industry which is already facing an investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
_____________
CNBC had a breaking story on a letter indicating investingation
of hedge funds by SEC might lead to regulation. Lets see what
the hedge funds have been up to.
SilverHoard
(11/05/2002; 16:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 88839)
$$$$$319.40$$$$
Rule Seven Paragraph: Purchasing gold now is IMHO
different than in the Sixties. 15 years after the end of WW II with rising inflation and Vietnam coming into the picture, America still had a strong manufacturing economy. Now it has a service economy with huge balance of payments problem because of the huge importation of foreign goods. Now the purchase of gold is first an insurance policy and second and investment vehicle. With hindsight and Forty years of fiat currency and a weak economy, it is now imperative to purchase gold (silver).
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 16:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 88840)
Lula stops bank sale
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2403775.stmBrazil's president-elect has asked the outgoing government to cancel the sale on Tuesday of a stake in the state-owned Banco do Brasil, Latin America's largest bank.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the decision on the privatisation should be left to his government, which takes office on 1 January.
___________
He's wearing that red star pin in his lapel. What else will he
roll back?

silvergolong
(11/05/2002; 16:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88841)
$$$$$326.60$$$$$$
Buying gold at ~$325 today IS LIKE buying gold in the 60s for $35 because:

* Price has been artificially manipulated for a number of years (London Gold Pool in the 60s, Bullion bank leasing & producer hedging today)

* Globe is experiencing a wave of political instability (vietnam and nuclear standoff in 60s, terrorism and war on iraq today)

* Runaway monetary inflation (vietnam war spending in 60s, financial crises in 90s and 00s requiring massive infusions today)

However there are major differences as well:

* US was the largest creditor nation in the 60s; now it is the largest debtor nation

* Corporate debt in the 60s was very high by contemporary standards; Corporate debt today is MUCH higher

* Consumer debt in the 60s was virtually non-existent; consumer debt today is at all-time highs

* In the 60s, the US was the dominant economic growth story, with germany and japan as the upstarts. Today, US is the dominant financial growth story, while real economic growth has shifted almost entirely to China.

* In the 60s, the US still supplied most of its own oil needs. Today the US is overwhelmingly dependent on foreign sources of oil. Meanwhile the importance of oil in the economy has not been reduced (despite all our fabulous technology)

* Today, a fiat dollar run amok is the world's reserve currency; in the 60s, gold (or a gold-backed dollar) constituted world financial reserves.

The forces acting on the price of gold in this decade will be like the forces acting on the price of gold in the 70s as a watch spring is to a rocket engine.
silvergolong
(11/05/2002; 16:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88842)
whoops
got the analogy backwards. The ROCKET forces will be applied to the price of gold TODAY, dwarfing the price move in the 70s.

As if you probably couldn't guess.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(11/05/2002; 16:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 88843)
Guesstamation of GOLD Price!
$$$$$$$$$$ 316.40 $$$$$$$$$$$$$
Gold buying now as compared to buying GOLD at $35.00 an ounce in the 1960s ???????????????
Gold buying in the 1960s was a sideline game/speculation/coin collector pastime activity!
Gold buying TODAY is REQUIRD PRESERVATION OF ECONOMIC STATUS/WEALTH! With a multiply of 100 potential expansion, today's price equates to FIRESALE prices !!!!!!!
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 16:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 88844)
Trouble at commodities trading commission?
http://www.cftc.gov/opa/press02/opa4720-02.htmWashington D.C. � The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced today that Commissioner Thomas J. Erickson has submitted a letter of resignation, dated October 28, 2002, to President George W. Bush, effective December 1, 2002.

Commissioner Erickson was sworn in as a Commissioner of the CFTC in June 1999. He was nominated by President William J. Clinton and confirmed by the Senate to a term expiring in April 2003.

"The CFTC has a unique and important role in the oversight of financial markets," said Commissioner Erickson. "My time at the Commission, as a member of the staff and as a Commissioner, has been extremely rewarding.

It's been my privilege to work alongside some of the most dedicated and talented public servants in the federal government.
I am grateful for the experience."
________________
He wants to leave an extremely rewarding job.
Hope he got a gold watch.
Cavan Man
(11/05/2002; 17:24:53 MDT - Msg ID: 88845)
POG
Hasn't moved a bit in 24 hrs. Is the patient still alive at LBMA & COMEX?
Cavan Man
(11/05/2002; 17:27:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88846)
sector
The additional benefit of lower rates is (of course) the flow of $$$ into US equity markets.

See you in N.O. and, how's that #5 wood?
Aristotle
(11/05/2002; 17:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88847)
The most important vote you will ever cast...
...will be in your own election to shift your predominantly paper-denominated sense of wealthiness toward more tangible wealthiness.

Contracts and numbers are a dime a dozen, and a baker's dozen is half-price in a fire sale. Pick a number, any number... the ace of spades is just a card among 52 when the game goes bust and the chips scatter. If you manage to slip out the back with your skin intact, what you walk away with is what you wisely left at home.

What? You still can't figure out what gives Gold the upper hand every time? Here, be a millionaire:

$1,000,000

My gift to you. Those numbers are all yours.

Get the picture? How wealthy are you... REALLY? How secure? Easy come, easy go? That's no plan for life.

When you must look to others for your food and energy needs, how confident are you that your small numbers will have any trade appeal? No one wants the Turkish lira.

The election is yours. Cast your vote. The Real Deal.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Frosty
(11/05/2002; 18:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 88848)
Contest $$$$318.20$$$$
Greetings Ladies and Gentlemen of this distinguished table:

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

First, if you look at the chart that RobotGuy posted (#88830), it clearly indicates that the 60's were nothing like today's stock market and gold market. $320 gold today will soon look much cheaper than $35.00 in the 60's especially if FOA is proves correct. Chears to all!
FROSTY
R Powell
(11/05/2002; 18:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88849)
Kodie
nostalgia I enjoyed the nostalgia (88770) which I have filed as first hand recent metals history. Recent is a relevant term here. Thanks for the telling.

You stated, "I started buying physical gold and silver and never looked back until last summer when I traded all of my silver across the board for gold."

May I ask why? My own opinion is that all commodity prices will rise over the next few years, some very much so. I view gold as an excellent choice but I'm curious as to why you traded all your silver for gold?

The 2002 Silver Survey published last April, gave a guesstimate of 120 million ounces as their year 2002 projected deficit. This, they admitted, was based on an optimistic outlook for this years economy and thus an optimistic outlook for silver demand. This deficit guess has been revised to 50 million ounces- a deficit still but much less than 120 million. So, we wait and watch some more. At least this explains how the market has been supplying demand. If we reach the point of no more visible above ground supply, with a continuing deficit AND still no price rationing, then we'll have to give more credence to the black (hidden) silver source.

What convinced you to give up on silver?
Thanks
Rich
sector
(11/05/2002; 18:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 88850)
@CavenMan -- The Two Stories Never Reported by the Mainstream press are...
GoldGate and the WindFall Profits of the Bond speculatorsThese are the two sides of the same bi-partisan financial crime. Rig gold and you have rigged interest rates and by definition the bond market enjoys a lucrative falling interest rate regime.

Anatal Fekete rightly points to the central lie of the Fed's "Cutting rates to help an ailing economy".

The bonds that productive industry sold to finance their capital equipment cannot be refinanced as mortgages. Their present value therefore rises with falling rates. The corps must pay back more principal than they originally borrowed. Balance sheets are decimated. Swissair went broke because of this...many others will follow.
+++++++++++++
The #5 wood sings. About 175 into the wind.
Noble1
(11/05/2002; 18:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 88851)
$$$$321.6$$$$
Yes, buying gold now is exactly the same as buying it at whatever price it brought in the 1960's. As it is the same as buying/accumulating it in 1860, 1760, 1660, 1560, 1460... You get the idea! Owning gold always makes sense. Over the course of history and time it's value always exceeds it's price.
Kodie
(11/05/2002; 19:07:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88852)
R Powell - nostalgia

You are probably correct in your assessment that silver will be a great investment. I have other factors to consider. PM's are a store of value for me, and I bought "a lot" over the last three years. Receiving silver in the mail was fun. I had accumulated 22,500 oz. and my grandson liked to "count it". After his visits, as I was putting it back in it's storage place, what began to trouble me was how was my 90 pound Sr. Citizen wife going to package this stuff if I was gone and she had to ship it out? A 1000 oz. bar weighs 68.5 pounds, more or less, and 10 hundred oz. bars weighs 68.5 pounds. So I had about 1,600 pounds of silver. At her age, she cannot lift 68.5 pounds. So, for value, I traded the silver for gold, which by the way is up about 30 percent from my average, and either one of us can carry the value in one or two trips. Silver is now below my average purchase price.

Additionally, I did not want to have to put overload springs on my vehicle to move the silver, if it ever came to that. Silly, I know, but each of us has our own reasons. (cough, cough). If you ever wanted to see a comedy of Mo and Curley, you should have seen us package and move a 5,000 oz. shipment from it's storage place to a shipping place, where it was refused until we double boxed it.

That's the reason. Physical possession is fine, if you can handle it physically. I couldn't.
Humble Pie
(11/05/2002; 19:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 88853)
$$$$325.10$$$$$
The ease of buying gold at $35 an oz. in the 60' wins hands down . Sure there has been inflation in alomost everything we come in contact with but the powers behind the screen still have the deck and they don't intend to give it up.$320 gold is a lot harder to come by than $35 gold was then .
goldquest
(11/05/2002; 19:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88854)
Harvey Pitt
Gone!
Pizz
(11/05/2002; 19:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88855)
Sector
On bonds and interest rates.

Personally, I think they would have had a real hard time floating this 40+ billion this week without leaking the interest rate drop.

As soon as the "rumor" hit the streets, the bond market took off. My gut tells me that the dip down we saw late last week was the dealers shorting bonds into strength, so when they take delivery on their bids, they just cover their short position and basically get out even.

Just opinion, but to me, having to borrow 70+ billion this quarter should be big news, and it's on the back burner so to speak. With the dollar dropping, you can sure bet foreigners aren't in the market heavy except maybe for selling.

Tomorrow will be interesting, but the SM's are way overbought short term, and this last pop over the last couple days has been on weak technicals. Bonds have already dicounted a quarter, so who's going to buy - just the funds, with the sheeples money.

Implosion of the debt markets is closer than even we may think. Bush needs the war for both excuses if things go bad, and for a flight to quality for the dollar, and not even Sadaam is cooperating, he's just rolling over enough to postpone the war until we can't raise enough borrowed cash to operate. Russia would even probably like to see a bit of payback for the 80's and their pain in the 90's. . .

The moves I'm seeing are nothing more than sheer desperation.

Pm's are slowly being accumulated by the smart. Nice to see the buying on the dips. . .

Pizz

sector
(11/05/2002; 19:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88856)
@pizz Your View is Well Supported by...
...the yen at 122 and showing steady strengthThis model is showing the Japanese to be selling US Treasuries slowly to raise cash and buy yen.

It's why the TOCOM has been weak of late. This is a temporary condition before the dollar moves below 103. Then the fire works will start in earnest.

Q1 2003 seems to be the end of the "Strong Dollar".
kludge
(11/05/2002; 20:13:39 MDT - Msg ID: 88857)
Contest
Just curious why the most profound and prolific posters here haven't registered their target price and explanation for the contest yet?

On a different note, looks like the Republicans may do very well tonight - wondering how that might effect the SM, the economy, and the PM prices. Repubs are typically seen as more business friendly, but I beleive business also enjoys Congressional gridlock in that it inhibits new legislation.

Early thoughts?
Pizz
(11/05/2002; 20:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88858)
Situation to Ponder
Let me preface what I'm about to say with the following: I am not a conspiracy buff, but people and organizations do tend to do desperate things, expecially if they're easier and less painful than the truth.

There are a few major facts that we all agree on (I think). Fiat is in big trouble, we have the largest debt bubble in history, and the US is in debt past the point of no return, and the system precludes reinflating without crashing first.

IMO, right now, the terrorists, axis of evil, along with any other country that would like to see the US knocked down a few pegs (probably the bulk of the rest of the world) kind of have us over a barrel. The system is broken past repair.

The last thing Bush needs is 6 months of weapons inspections, cause by that time the cat is going to be out of the bag. I think GATA is right, there is enough evidence for a goldgate of sorts, and the last thing the central banks need is congressional investigations into how we got where we are. The big boys will go down in flames.

So as all our 'enemies' soften their stances, and they're making sure not to give us any reason to go into Iraq, what is this administration going to do? The war on terror is losing it's credibility, and it's getting less credible all the time.

It all boils down to money, and we're out of it. We're down to playing tricks and spinning the facts to float the bonds. Without a war, the government can't even put in capital controls without coming clean about the financial system. In past crisis we issued war bonds, so what will they call them without a war? Last Gasp Bonds because no one else with finance our life syle, and we need the money for our war machine?

Looks like we need another scape goat, cause the excuses are getting lamer all the time.

Within private business corporations it gets REAL messy as the owners go down for the count. Public ones too, like Enron and WCOM to name a couple. What do countries do?

Time isn't a luxury too much longer.

Thoughts????

Pizz
Blackjack
(11/05/2002; 20:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88859)
New Pakistan PM is Taliban supporter
http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,2763,834287,00.htmlAn Islamist cleric with Taliban sympathies was last night poised to become Pakistan's next prime minister after the country's religious groups agreed to form a coalition government with an alliance dominated by Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's party.

In a move that will deeply alarm Washington, Maulana Fazlur Rehman - once described as an over-fed cleric in plush turban and sunglasses - emerged as the coalition's candidate for prime minister.

Mr Rehman, 49, heads the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal alliance of six religious groups that did unexpectedly well in last month's general election in which no party emerged with an overall majority.

He was locked up last year after denouncing America's war in Afghanistan and wants all US bases in Pakistan to be closed down.

A faction of the Pakistan Muslim League, the PML (Q), which supports the country's military president general Pervez Musharraf won the biggest number of seats in the new assembly and had been expected to form the next government.

A spokesman for the party insisted yesterday that it would still form the next administration. But the claim increasingly lacks credibility.

Last night, western observers were coming to terms with the fact that a man who once called on his followers to wage a "holy war", against President Bush could soon become prime minister of the world's newest nuclear power.

"We are watching carefully," one western diplomat said.
_______________
More support for Kashmir rebels coming from Rehman.
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 20:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88860)
An Answer to Sir Kludge's Question !! <;-)
kludge (11/05/02; 20:13:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 88857)
Contest
Just curious why the most profound and prolific posters here haven't registered their target price and explanation for the contest yet?
---
Early thoughts?
===
YES INDEED, Sir Krudge, you have in part answered your own Question -- IT IS EARLY in the game and many have a STRATEGY !! This is one reason to give OWNERSHIP RIGHTS to the Prognostication to the First to claim the number. The EARLY bird gets the worm ! HOWEVER, let me use some similes here to demonstrate. I shall use the Goldheart Black Blade as an example --- As a great hunter, Black Blade most likely sets up in a "downwind highground" location as the ten-point elk have sensitive smelling abilities -- get the point ? Therefore, one does not expect Black Blade to place his price guess before he knows "which way the wind is blowing" !! My estimate is that Black Blade shall post his guess on late Monday morning Mountain Time. It has also has been seen that Geologists (I have seen MANY do this, but perhaps not Dr. Warner) always have a magnifying glass or loop and whenever someone hands them a rock and asks "What is this ?" --- the Geologist takes his rock hammer and chips off a fresh or clean face, slowly takes out the magnifying glass, and looks through the glass, while uttering a --- Hmmmmm... WHY do Geologists do this ? --- IMHO --- THINKING TIME !!! All the show and extra effort is to provide time to determine the next action, or they are thinking to themself -- "WHAT IS THIS THING ? "
--
SOOO, when is best to GUESS and and how do you determine the CORRECT VALUE ? --- Don't ask ME ? ROFL <;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/05/2002; 21:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88861)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
COMEX gc2z Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price CONTEST !!FOURTH UPDATE (with all revisions) <;-)
as of 21:10 Denver time 11/05/02
THANKS for VOTING, USA !!

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3

(looks as if Sir VanRip is "KING of the HILL" at this point !) <;-)

=======
ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

Thanks EARLY Guessers ! Some prices are getting close to be "BRACKETED" !! Don't wait tooo long or your number will be taken by someone else !
<;-)
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 21:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88862)
Re: Kludge and Gandy

Oh my, why do I wait? That's a good question. First, I have been here for quite a long time and will give all the new posters who wish to participate an early shot. Notice how quickly the slots fill up? Besides many lurkers tend to make themselves known and join the regular faces at the round table to give their perspective. Secondly, there are so many events that take place that can so easily affect the markets and the price of gold. Tonight we await election and initiative results that can change the face of the political landscape. Tomorrow we shall see how much the Fed will cut interest rates, then again what if they don't? Thirdly, what world event, geopolitical crisis, or terrorist act will create angst in the markets? However, when the contests are of a more cerebral nature requiring deep thought and analyses then I might take a lot of time to organize my thoughts and sometimes to review information and long forgotten data to put together a more detailed post.

Oh yes, sometimes I do take out my hand lens to look at minerals in a rock (or micro-fossils) and rack my brain trying to remember long forgotten details to make an identification (among other things). Sometimes it is intuitive and yes, sometimes I do say Hmmm� Fortunately if that fails there are other methods that can be used.

So far no elk, but I do have deer and antelope bagged and tagged. This last weekend I did slay some ducks. So the freezer is slowly filling up. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 21:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88863)
SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt resigns
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF850EB64%2DFE52%2D4BDB%2D8A7E%2DC86BA8B7453E%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Embattled SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt resigned late Tuesday, White House officials said. Pitt submitted his resignation letter to President Bush Tuesday afternoon, even as election returns dominated news coverage.

Black Blade: Yeah, like we didn't see this one coming. The old boy dug himself in a hole and just kept on digging. At some point the Prez is going to lose patience.

BTW, I like goldquest's analysis. "Gone"

Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 21:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88864)
Pitt Resignation Letter
November 5, 2002

The Honorable George W. Bush

The White House

Washington, D.C.

My dear Mr. President:

It is with deep regret that I have decided to tender my resignation to you as Chairman, and a member, of the Securities and Exchange Commission, effective as soon as I can help your Staff ensure a smooth transition of leadership.

Over the past fifteen months, I have had the pleasure of serving as part of your Administration. The issues confronting our capital markets are enormous, and I am pleased I was able to play a role in starting to restore investor confidence.

Unfortunately, the turmoil surrounding my Chairmanship and the Agency makes it very difficult for the Commissioners and dedicated SEC Staffers to perform their critical assignments. Rather than be a burden to you or the Agency, I feel it is in everyone's best interest if I step aside now, to allow the agency to continue the important efforts we have started.

It has been a sincere pleasure to serve under you. I know the Country is in excellent hands, and you have my continuing admiration, respect, affection and support.

Sincerely,

Harvey L. Pitt


Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 22:06:01 MDT - Msg ID: 88865)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:

Sending The Wrong Message

Rather than allow the markets and the economy to naturally bottom and heal themselves, the Fed seems to be hell bent on preventing any healing process from occurring. The message seems to be that there will be no hangover from the 90's debt and spending binge. There is this general feeling of omnipotence when it comes to the Fed. Somewhere along the way we have lost the concept of how our economy works. We now believe that we can socially engineer any outcome through various means of monetary and fiscal policy. The message is there will be no more bear markets or no more recessions when in fact, that is what we keep getting. Furthermore, by creating additional bubbles in housing and consumption, the Fed has set itself up for more breakdowns and failures.

Black Blade: Keynesians vs. Austrian School � right? Managed economy vs. economic cycles.


Complacency in Oil Markets

One topic that isn't receiving more attention is the dwindling supplies of oil and natural gas in this country. The IEA sees oil stocks trending lower this year despite sluggish product demand, poor refining margins and decreased compliance by OPEC. The IEA argues that those who say the market fundamentals remain weak have underestimated the great disconnect between crude and product stocks. Crude oil stocks are low and are still trending lower. The agency believes critical oil stocks remain low heading into the winter heating season. We are now down to about 55 days of forward cover. Moreover, natural gas production in the US continues to decline. It declined by 1% in Q3 and is expected to decline by 5-10% in Q4. Natural gas production has fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter. Rig counts remain low and drilling activity has not increased significantly. We are, in the words of one energy expert, only a winter's storm away from our next energy crisis.

There is now a growing consensus within the intelligence community that al Qaeda is shifting its attention to economic assets. During the Afghan campaign last year, the US picked up plans and photographs of key energy installations in the US, which included refineries, nuclear power plants, pipelines and other energy assets. If you want to stop the economy, you need to stop the fuel, which runs the economy -- cheap and abundant energy. A severe oil shock similar to what happened during the 1970's would do irreparable harm to an already fragile economy. In fact, a disruption in the supply of energy would do more harm to Europe and Asia as they are more dependent on imported oil.


Black Blade: I may have to address this subject again. I have been laying off this subject with all the other events occurring in the markets and around the world. But insufficient energy supply (rather "cheap energy" supply) is a growing problem. Most disturbing is the disaster coming in the NatGas supply as reserves are not being replaced as all new power generation is NG fired and more NatGas fired power plants are coming online. Watch out for higher energy costs in the next few months. A category killer if there ever was one. A very good read tonight at Puplava's site if you are interested in the problems that can occur with respect to energy.

kludge
(11/05/2002; 22:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88866)
(No Subject)
Thank you for the quick response to my query Sir Gandalf and Sir Black Blade. I only ask because I've come to expect accuracy at a far greater distance than point-blank range from the wise here. A great analogy though, the elk, as the season for those wonderful ruminants draws close in my neck of the woods, and I too look forward to the chase!

Much like the mighty elk is the "Grail of Wisdom" we all here seek, I think we will not find it in our closet nor under our beds - but must seek it out, sometimes at great distances, with only the wisdom and experience of our leaders to guide us. While one may certainly sit by his window and wait while the quarry is lead past by knaves in the courtyard below, this teaches nothing of the chase, or the quest, to the young knights. Anticipating the forces that guide our prey, reading his sign, understanding what drives him, and to where - then being there well in advance of him, that takes wisdom. Let the wise and strong among us take up the Siege Perilous, and let the junior knights and squires follow their lead. Even if it's only a minor quest :-)
Nibelung
(11/05/2002; 22:28:28 MDT - Msg ID: 88867)
Pizz - "Situation to Ponder"
Excellent situation analysis. There will be no easy solution to the fiat mess. All the escape exits are blocked.
mas
(11/05/2002; 22:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88868)
Pizz 88858
Thought's? Your spot on! Be lucky if they make past Christmas.
No more comment.
Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 23:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 88869)
Democrats Losing Ground In US Senate Races
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021106/0044000056_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Results from several key races early Wednesday showed Republicans appeared on the verge of retaking control of the U.S. Senate.

Black Blade: Looks like a done deal.

Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 23:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88870)
Market Index Futures Soaring Higher
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Now that news organizations are predicting that the Republicans have retaken the Senate and hold the House, not to mention the resignation of SEC chairman Harvey Pitt, the U.S. market futures are rocketing to unbelievable levels, the USD is moving higher, Gold is flat, and petroleum is flat. If these levels hold it looks like a record high open on Wall Street. I guess Wall Street like the Republicans this time around. Should be fun to watch and see if the Lemmings jump over the cliff or not, or do they just become Lemming Stew? "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Sundeck
(11/05/2002; 23:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88871)
Pizz #88858 - Ponderous Situation
This is my take on some of Pizz's comments.

Pizz wrote:

"...It all boils down to money, and we're out of it."

Me: I agree, but I suspect the more primal issue is ENERGY. Bush and Co are sitting atop the biggest, fiercest, hungriest industrial tiger ever - the USA. The energy that drives it is (mainly) oil and gas. The US has left it too late to implement an energy strategy that progressively substitutes renewables for fossils. They know what Hubbert's curve is telling them. If this administration understands anything, it understands oil.

The big "renewables" thrust over the years has been nuclear fusion. Many billions of dollars have been pored into fusion research. Although the basic physics has been understood for decades, the engineering solution remains elusive. It is debatable whether a similar expenditure on "less sexy" energy solutions over the years might have been successful. For example, hydrogen fuel cells are up and coming, but the hydrolysis of water to yeild hydrogen depends upon another primary source which must also be renewable. Candidates are direct solar photovoltaic conversion, tidal, ocean wave and wind. Not very sexy here, but large energy densities are available from these primary sources. There are many problems, for example, good catalysts for the hydrolysis reaction. Note however that the large-scale "electricity storage" problem seems to have been solved using Vanadium Redox Batteries (incidentally, an Australian invention, taken over by a Canadian company).



Pizz also said:

"...I am not a conspiracy buff, but people and organizations do tend to do desperate things, expecially if they're easier and less painful than the truth."

...

"So as all our 'enemies' soften their stances, and they're making sure not to give us any reason to go into Iraq, what is this administration going to do? The war on terror is losing it's credibility, and it's getting less credible all the time."

Me: The US is behind the energy 8-ball, and they need to be able to source large quantities of oil and gas reliably, fairly soon, and they don't have the money to pay for it. The conspiracy, if one may call it that, is that war on terror and villanising Iraq (Saddam) provides a convenient ploy to go after Iraqi oil and gas - the second largest reserve and the cheapest to tap in the world. I suspect the new UN resolution will contain wording with still enough handles to enable the US, if required, to force Saddam to appear in contravention of the resolution, enabling the US to appear reasonable in the use of force. Desperate "energy"-times demand desparate means.

However the administration will not want a Vietnam-type situation and that might arise. I suspect the diplomatic wires are running hot at the moment seeking non-violent access to the oil (e.g. Saddam into exile, new "friendly" regime in place.) The diplomacy will be backed up by overwhelming military deployments so that it will be apparent that Iraq (Saddam) is being made and offer "too good to refuse".

Of course, the US is not the only industrial country that would like cheap and reliable oil and gas. That is where things get interesting, and it may be where Saddam will be desperately trying to put other countrys' interests in between him and the US. Hence the hot diplomatic wires.

Interesting times...

Sundeck







Black Blade
(11/05/2002; 23:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 88872)
Foreign Markets Like US Election Results and Pitt Resignation
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are rocketing higher and Euro markets are poised to do the same.Should be quite "entertaining" on Wall Street tomorrow. I wonder what will ahppen after the Fed announces though. Hmmm...

- Black Blade
Draco
(11/06/2002; 00:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88873)
Republicans take control of the Senate
Just announced on on Fox News...... The Republicans have taken control of the Senate with the win in Missouri of Jim Talent. He will take his seat in two or three weeks after certification. Unlike other newly elected Senators who will be sworn in next year, Talent will fill the seat right away.

Watch fot he markets to continue the rally since the Republicans are viewed as more business friendly. I'm not sure of the implications for gold, but we may see a down day on Wednesday. Not to worry though.........just another buying opportunity !!

Draco
Sierra Madre
(11/06/2002; 00:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 88874)
Mexico's ilver production commences a decline
The 12 month moving average of silver production, as reported by the official Mexican institution "INEGI", has produced a declining curve, in place for about the last six or eight months.

I will try to post the table of data from which the curve was constructed, tomorrow.

I have not been able to pinpoint the producer(s) who are reporting diminished production. Pe--oles is not one of them, as it reports a small increase in production.

Sierra
Draco
(11/06/2002; 00:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88875)
SEC chairman Pitt resigns
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF850EB64%2DFE52%2D4BDB%2D8A7E%2DC86BA8B7453E%7D&siteid=mktw
Don't know if this has already been posted.

Looks like alot of things in Washington are going to be different today. The President will think long and hard about a replacement to restore investor confidence. The market will love this news as well.

All of this shake-up in Washington as well as the Fed meeting should make for an "interesting" day.

Draco
Draco
(11/06/2002; 00:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88876)
End of the bear market?


From Bill Bonner........

*** There were three major bull markets in America
during the last century, Richard Russell explained
yesterday. There was the 1921-'29 boom, the '49-'66 bull
market, and the most recent one, which he figures began
in 1974 and lasted until '99. The shortest of these last
8 years. The longest took 25 years to reach its apogee.
During this time, it took stock prices up 20 times from
where they started, making it the greatest bull market
in history.

Each big bull market, however, was followed by an
"extended, very complex bear market." Russell puts the
bear market following the '29 crash as the biggest -
lasting 20 years, until 1949.

These bear markets can take a long time to get where
they are going. Sooner or later they get there - down to
levels where stocks finally bottom out at 5-10 times
earnings.

The saving grace of previous bear markets was that
stocks paid dividends. But now, the average dividend is
barely a quarter of what it used to be.

The Trade of the Decade, we still believe, will be to
sell stocks and buy gold. Even if gold goes
nowhere...when stocks finally hit bottom, gold will look
like it's up from there.

************************************

End of the bear market? I think not.

This market has a long way to go to get back to P/E ratios of 5-10, even if earnings stayed the same. If you factor in declining earnings, it becomes clear that the drop must be even more extreme.

Hopfully the masses still in the market will take this rally as an opportunity to cut losses and convert to gold before it's too late. Time is short...very short.
The war in Iraq is next.

These are the times trhat try men's souls.............

Draco
GratefulForGold
(11/06/2002; 01:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88877)
Black Blade #88836 -- World Gold Council

This organization has puzzled me in my relatively short involvement in PMs. I accept that they work globally. Do they do ANYTHING in the US? I have had great hopes for Chris Thompson's involvement and guidance but I hope his great new "secret" to be unveiled isn't just some e-bullion deal.

What bothers me most is the apparent (due to India et al?) focus on gold as jewelry. In these incredible times of uncertainty, SM money "sitting on the sidelines," etc. why are there not full page ads strategically placed (picturing gold bullion coins, etc.) geared to INVESTORS? Is the WGC so poor that it can't afford high quality ads in the most prestigious publications? (On second thought, I don't read those publications because I'm not rich enough...maybe they DO have ads there??). Long rant short...I feel like the US market (investors) is especially "ripe" for a really good, coordinated effort to educate people here on the investment opportunities for gold. Simply telling some people how to go about acquiring a Gold Eagle would help (other than the stupid home shopping network on TV that I think has the gall to sell a Gold Eagle for over $500!!). If that is the public's only exposure to gold...no wonder they're not buying. Bridging the gap from investing in the stock market to buying gold bullion has to be spelled out to people who don't use the Internet like we do. TV, magazines. Newsletters and an occasional newspaper article don't tell people how to buy gold coins!! Egos being what they are, I wouldn't be surprised if many men don't buy gold just because they don't know how (just like asking for directions).

MK, or any of you incredibly knowledgeable and hopefully well-connected people in this market...do you have any contacts or influence with the WGC? They need help!
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 01:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88878)
Re: GratefulForGold � WGC

I am not sure what the World Gold Council has planned. I wonder if the plan is to develop a repository with vaults to store physical gold and to sell shares representing a set amount of bullion to institutional investors such as funds, banks, and maybe well placed individuals of great net worth. Perhaps these shares can be bought and sold based on the price of gold as one would do with stocks. As more shares are sold more gold is deposited into the vault. Anyway, I am only guessing as they announced that they had to work out the bugs and legal issues and then pass it by the regulators. There was discussion about potential problems with the legal issues concerning their plan (whatever it is). I guess we will just have to wait and see. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Aristotle
(11/06/2002; 01:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88879)
Pizz's -- Situation to Ponder
"I think GATA is right, there is enough evidence for a goldgate of sorts, and the last thing the central banks need is congressional investigations into how we got where we are. The big boys will go down in flames." ---Pizz msg#: 88858

Uh-oh. I just HATE the smell of litigation in the morning!!

I'm curious. Up to now there's been a plethora of legal market mechanisms to deliver the Gold situation we have today, of which the price is the highly distilled essence of that underlying causal reality. I have come to take immense comfort in my grasp of these banking and financial machinations -- to see them deliver Gold cheaply in our favor until the financial inflection point in the activity is reached, hailing its structural demise, at which point the accumulated Gold (and ONLY the Gold) pays off big time as the contracts burn out their short remaining timeline.

With all of these legal opportunities to preface a legitimate payoff of grand proportions, why would anyone risk the taint of illegality? Are you telling me that GATA actually *knows* of the exploitation of additional *ILLEGAL* mechanisms on top of the legitimate ones I've tried to convey?? What are they and how do they work, has anyone ever said? Just because some of these things are done on the D.L. doesn't automatically qualify them as illegal or the stuff of "gates."

Thus, being redundant to serve the purpose of cheap Gold during this post-Bretton Woods interlude, I've sincerely gotta say I'm skeptical that there's anything more substantial than a "fish story" at the end of that particular line. That's why I rather urge people to spend their energies reeling in Gold instead of reeling (in dizziness) under the nose of red herrings rotting on the deck. Gold in hand is a sure thing.

Get you some. --- Ari
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 02:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88880)
Mondale Loses to Coleman?

Norm Coleman leads Walter Mondale as voters say Mondale is yesterday's old news. The race is still not being called by the media but it looks like a "done deal". John Thune is leading Tim Johnson in South Dakota in a nail-biter. It looks like it will go to Thune as the counties that remain to be counted are in the west part of the state and are heavily Republican. So far it looks like the Senate will have at least 53 Republicans with two more races to be decided. Meanwhile the market index futures indicate a record blowout at the open on Wall Street. Not sure if it due to the Republican victory or Harvey Pitt's resignation. Hey, maybe the President's Working Group on Financial Markets is attempting to kick start something. Hmmm...

- Black Blade
Spartacus
(11/06/2002; 02:21:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88881)
Odd Farm-Sector Surge Distorts Jobs Data
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021105/economy_employment_farms_2.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- An inexplicable surge in farm jobs has played a major part in keeping the U.S. unemployment rate down in recent months, despite persistent weakness in other labor market indicators.

Without the jump in farm-based employment since June, the jobless rate would have climbed steadily to reach 6.0 percent in October. Instead the jobless rate fell in September and then inched back to 5.7 percent last month.

If it had topped 6.0 percent, consumer confidence might have suffered far more, bond yields tumbled and the case for an interest rate cut -- now expected on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve -- might be that much clearer.

The strength baffles analysts and statisticians alike and could reinforce financial market skepticism of the unemployment figures as a reliable indicator of the economy.

"The massive surge in farm jobs has been an important factor depressing the published unemployment rate at a time of little or no growth in nonfarm payroll employment," said Rory Robertson, an interest rate strategist who covers the U.S. economy for Australian house Macquarie Equities.

"Of course, the rapid growth in farm jobs -- the fastest in more than 50 years of data -- seems implausible, to say the least," he added. --
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 02:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88882)
"Barbarous Relic Files" - Gang held for stealing gold coins
http://in.news.yahoo.com/021106/54/1xdok.html

Snippit:

Chennai, Nov 5: A six-member all-woman gang from Nepal was nabbed on charges of stealing gold coins from a jewel shop and stolen articles worth several lakhs were recovered from them today. They diverted the attention of the salesmen, put gold coins totally weighing 424 grams in a box and went away. They then engaged an autorickshaw to go to other places. On the way, they got down after removing the coins from the box and leaving the empty box in the auto. Auto driver Selvaganesh, who noticed the empty box, went to the shop and handed over the same to the owner. The shop owner then only realised that the coins were stolen and informed the Royapettah police who in turn alerted other police stations and the control room. On specific information that the gang was staying in a hotel in the Flower Bazaar area, the police went there and swooped on the gang members.

Black Blade: A lot of effort and trouble for mere "barbarous relics". Hmmm�

Topaz
(11/06/2002; 02:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 88883)
Contest
My Guess...$$$307.5$$$
Is buying gold now similar to the late '60's?
NO!...Back then, the Dollar had an officially sanctioned Gold value of $35, nowadays Gold, in all it's manifestations, has a "freemarket" Dollar value of (say) $320.
The difference is profound fellow goldhearts. The former situation (60's) provided for a comparison, whereas the latter does not. Today, valuing Gold in Dollars (or ANY currency) is akin to ascribing a value of 4 Gallons to a Kilo of Wheat ie: more information is needed.
Gold-----Priceless Today.
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 03:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 88884)
Official - Coleman defeats Mondale for Senate

It appears that the people of Minnesota were as disgusted with the sham memorial for dead Senator Paul Wellston as was Governor Jesse Ventura and they showed their displeasure by voting for the Republican candidate.

It now looks like the GOP sponsored "Energy Bill" will pass, the Kyoto Protocol Iniative is dead in the water, and several judicial appointments and political appointees will be confirmed and sworn in.

John Thune of S. Dakota looks likely to win over Tim Johnson in a slap in the face for current Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. This looks like as much of a clean sweep for the Repubs as could have been expected.

The Market futures and foreign markets are charging ahead on the election news and the news that Harvey Pitt has been effectively fired. The only thing that the markets could possibly want now is a 50 basis point rate cut instead of 25 basis points.

These are "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade
Topaz
(11/06/2002; 03:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88885)
Bonds and Gold
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=fvxy%2Ctnxy%2Ctyxy%2Cgcv02.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=14&go.y=12It'll be interesting watching the Yield movements react to a rate cut, should it eventuate....Gold seems to have found a bottom @ $312 for now....It's all a Dollar thing, Dollar index looks weak, Rate cut should shore up $...let's see!
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 03:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88886)
News from U.S. Lifts Asian Shares
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021106/markets_global_2.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stock markets advanced on Wednesday as investors expected a probable cut in U.S. interest rates and sweeping Republican victories in Congressional elections to inject fresh life into the world's biggest economy. Republicans, seen as more friendly to business, steamed to huge wins in midterm elections, keeping control of the House of Representatives and reclaiming the Senate in what was a historic sweep for President Bush.

Black Blade: Let the good times roll, never mind that nothing has really changed.

Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 03:50:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88887)
U.S. Elections Helps Eurostocks Shine
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021106/markets_europe_stocks_6.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - European equities sailed higher on Wednesday morning, catching a fair wind from Wall Street and solid results at Europe's biggest bank BNP Paribas.
Sentiment was also given a fillip from news that Republicans had rolled to big wins in mid-term elections, holding control of the U.S. House of Representatives and scoring key Senate victories. The result will help clear the gridlock in Congress and give President Bush increased clout to push through tax initiatives, as well as promote potential military action against Iraq. "The election result is very good news as it opens the doors to more defense spending as well as tax cuts to boost all-important consumer spending. It also means that we could get a decisive move toward a Gulf War which has hung over the market for some time," said Rolf Elgeti, a European strategist at Commerzbank.

Black Blade: Yep, it's party time. Now the go ahead for war is a given and lower interest rates are on the way, the outlook for Gold is still bullish.

Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 03:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 88888)
Stocks Rise, Wall St. Eyes Vote, Rate Cut
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021105/markets_stocks_23.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Blue-chip stocks led Wall Street higher on Tuesday amid news of modest growth in the vast U.S. services sector, but investors marked time for most of the day, awaiting a possible interest-rate cut and the results of the day's voting in U.S. elections.

Black Blade: Boy, this morning everyone is as happy as a "pig in s***".

RS
(11/06/2002; 05:35:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88889)
Post election-day reminder
U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 10:

"No state shall � make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts."

Never amended, never repealed.
Still the law of the land.
���������������������������������..

Elected officials are sworn to uphold and protect the Constitution of the United States.
Yet they continuously ignore Article 1, Section 10.
They're either:
a) Grossly ignorant of the law
or,
b) Liars and thieves
Boilermaker
(11/06/2002; 06:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88890)
The Spin Stops Here
The Republicans need a plan real soon. My guess is a major devaluation under the guise of heading off the threat of deflation. This basically takes debtors off the hook at the expense of creditors. The real trick is how to salvage the assets of the banks, pension funds, etc so they don't go under. Another approach is to close (or severely restrict) the dollar redemption window to offshore dollar holders as we did the gold window back in 71. This will effectively devalue the dollar and isolate the US economy for a period of time and force the rebuilding of our energy and manufacturing sectors.

The arab countries would be wise to back off the terrorism and weapons threats and work to pierce the debt bloated underbelly of our economy using their oil and gold resources. Actually, a dose of economic humiliation may work to our benefit in the long run.

Like Pizz, I am very interested in figuring out what this end game will be.

Boilermaker
VanRip
(11/06/2002; 06:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88891)
Ron Paul and John Larson re-elected
Chris Powell of GATA just emailed the following to subscribers:

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The co-sponsors of the Monetary Reform and
Accountability Act, H.R. 3732, which would
require the U.S. Treasury Department and
its Exchange Stabilization Fund to obtain the
approval of Congress before intervening in
the gold market, were easily re-elected
Tuesday.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, received 68
percent of the vote, and U.S. Rep. John B.
Larson, D-Conn., received 67 percent.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Basil
(11/06/2002; 07:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88892)
$$$$320.8$$$$
Gold was still "remembered" as real currency by vastly more of life's pilgrims when still priced at $35 per ounce.These forums indeed help spread the word to new generations--but Joe Sixpack by and large doesn't have a clue yet.He will regretfully learn.
drawmax
(11/06/2002; 07:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88893)
$$$346.2$$$
My guess $$$346.2$$$
Gold is more valuable to have under your mattress now than it was at $35.00 in the late 60's. Our government and our populace is much more corrupt and we need something real and of value in our possession. Trust only in G-d, your family, and knowlege.
The Hoople
(11/06/2002; 08:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 88894)
FT: It's the oil, stupid
FT 11/05 Headline:
Big oil groups wait to pick over spoils of Iraqi battlefield

Snippet: "...oil majors are finding it increasingly hard to meet production targets and Iraq's vast oilfields offer potentially huge rewards. The country's reserves - 112bn barrels according to the US Energy Administration - are exceeded only by Saudi Arabia's." "... The State Department will next month convene an oil and gas working group which would include representatives from the Iraqi opposition and the US Energy Department." "...But just how big the stakes will be for these companies could depend on whether Iraq stays in OPEC. If it leaves the producers cartel, its untapped oil fields could be set for rapid exploitation, enhancing the chances for foreign investors."

Comment: Meeting next month? Rapid exploitation to drive oil prices down? It's divide and conquer time. For the want of a sane energy policy oil madmen will take down the world. If there was no addiction to foreign oil in all likelyhood madmen like Hussein and Bin Laden wouldn't exist. Like gold, the solution is so simple yet seemingly impossible.






nickel62
(11/06/2002; 09:03:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88895)
My guess...
###316.7###
nickel62
(11/06/2002; 09:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88896)
My guess...
$$$316.7$$$
MK
(11/06/2002; 09:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88897)
Black Blade
The election could be read another way:

1. A clear mandate for war

2. Administration economic team shake up could mean kicking the supports from under the so-called strong dollar policy (more a perception that the administration can do something than a reality)

3. Wall Street wrong-doer reprieve. Democrats ran hard on taking a look-see. That threat is gone.

4. Continued astronomical growth in the twin deficits (the Keynsian solution)

More. . . . .but those are the highlights. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next two weeks. I remember one of the wise ones here saying some time back that "gridlock" is a good thing. Now we have the Republicans in clear control. What might it mean for markets and gold??? We'll be watching for clues over the next few weeks.
Boilermaker
(11/06/2002; 09:45:08 MDT - Msg ID: 88898)
Check the back door
Does anyone else hear the pitter patter of feet that may be coming from the recent SM buyers who are sneaking out the back door while Republicans party in the front room? Naw, probably just my wild imagination. They wouldn't abandon their party in its time of need, would they?
Lets see if the rally has legs. Cheers,
Boilermaker
Gandalf the White
(11/06/2002; 10:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88899)
ATTENTION Sir Nickel62 !!!! POG entry is not Valid !!!
nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 88896)
My guess...
$$$316.7$$$

nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 88895)
My guess...
###316.7###
===
Your THIRD time will be the charm !!
PLEASE RE-READ Contest RULE #7 !!!
Thanks
<;-)
Blurrmoon
(11/06/2002; 10:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 88900)
election mandate
it seems obvious to me that election results taken as a whole, show that voters are saturated in fear. my proof lies in the fact that status quo held firmer than in a long long time. in our case at this point in time the more of W's scent in politics the better. also look at the voter decisions on how drugs and drug crimes are treated. treatment for addicts? no way! put them in jail and they will get better, we think.
MK
(11/06/2002; 10:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88902)
Boilermaker, All . . . . Perception & Reality
One of the things we must do as investors and/or analysts is attempt to ascertain the effects of perception and reality on investments. In a fiat based economy -- where the value of the currency is based on faith in the government and financial system -- what is not accomplished by doing things right is covered by creating the impression that everything is "being" done right, or "will be" done right. How long did the public feed off the erroneous perception that we were in a New Economy wherein the business cycle was mercifully put to sleep and stocks would rise forever unto heaven Amen -- a new secular religion based on eternal capital safety? All, alas, a perception. Just like currency value is perception -- an act of faith. If the religious right wanted to really tangle with the left's version of Genesis, they wouldn't bother with Darwin, they would challenge the leftist university version of socialist economics. That's where the promise is made of heaven on Earth. This is the real challenge to the God of the Bible. (And please let's not get into a religious discussion because I pointed that out -- in a political economy context, by the way.) All that aside. . . .What will be the new perceptions? Who knows. But I know they are about to be foisted upon us -- and this post has nothing to do with partisan politics. I hold both the Democrats and Republicans responsible. Perception is everything. Reality becomes residual -- almost second guessing. And you can be laughed at for pointing certain realities in this day and age, as most of us who own gold know. Perception is for speculators. Reality is for savers. And gold after all remains the best cash alternative to currency savings in a fiat economy living on perception.

______________________

"When I die I want to come back as the bond market." William Jefferson Clinton

(When told by then TreasSec Robert Rubin that the economic program of his administration would always have to factor in how the bond market would perceive it.)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/06/2002; 10:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88903)
NOVEMBER N&V on its way... Did you know you can continue to receive NEWS & VIEWS?
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Centennial serviceFollowing a brief printing hiatus, and no longer provided beyond one introductory issue to prospective clientele, our September newsletter tells it like it is to our established clients:

"...we emerge to introduce a new role for NEWS & VIEWS -- sifting through the avalanche of information being published these days and organizing it into something reader-friendly for our busy clientele. We hope you enjoy and gain from this first issue of our resurrected now bimonthly offering. May you welcome it like the return of an old friend.

"Speaking of old friends, it seems our old friend, Mr. Yellow, has altered his disposition since last we met ­ stubborn determination has reaped dogged progress, and most of the goldmeisters have spent a pleasant summer counting coup. Overnight, it seems, gold has gone from contemptible wastrel in the investment world to prime subject matter at Power Lunches around the world -- including CNBC's segment."
- - -
It's easy to be added to the ongoing distribution list for this newsletter -- mailed bimonthly to all of our clients. Just choose USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals as your precious metals brokerage, and enjoy the full benefits of three decades of experience and service!

TownCrier
(11/06/2002; 10:47:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88904)
Canadians, it is up to you to own gold; your government won't do it for you
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlWGC reports today:
"The Canadian government said yesterday that it had disposed of another 90,937 ounces of gold reserves last month, taking its holdings to 700,000 ounces."


Bottom line: Some things may be done by proxy. Owning gold is not one of them.

Call Jonathan, George and MK at Centennial and do what's right for you and your family.

R.
Pizz
(11/06/2002; 11:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 88905)
Aristotle
Thank you for your insights. Let's chat a bit about a couple of them.

1. "Up to now there's been a plethora of legal market mechanisms to deliver the Gold situation we have today, of which the price is the highly distilled essence of that underlying causal reality."

Yes, the price has been held down thru a variety of what appears to be legal mechanisms. But I do question the "properness" of the central banks holding leased gold as an asset on their books. I do question totally inadaquet disclosure regarding deriviatives and hedge programs. And I do question what appears to have been and is still continuing, the proliferation of the "strong" dollar world wide thru hedonistic inflation calculations and an artificially low gold price, among other things.

Now, within the larger picture frame, if all is well and legal, why can't we get disclosure? "Fish Story?" Maybe, but as the system unravels a bit, I think there will be more than enough "gate" material to go around, cause there sure won't be enough gold (or silver for that matter).

2. "With all of these legal opportunities to preface a legitimate payoff of grand proportions, why would anyone risk the taint of illegality?"

Real simple Ari, human nature, greed, arrogance, and the 100% belief that they are too big, powerful, or connected to fall. The masses just may think that they have been slightly hoodwinked before this is all over.

And as far as ONLY physical gold? Sir, I respect your thoughts and insights into the issues, but for most people to throw all their eggs into the physical GOLD basket is extremely poor investment advice. EVERYTHING except physical gold is going to go down??? Pretty extreme view.

Pizz



NEMO me impune lacessit
(11/06/2002; 12:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88906)
Contest
$$$$320.2$$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No, much more like a bargain. Today's political and economic forces are going to push (unwillingly) the price of gold to unknown heights not even seen during the early -80. I also think that gold is going to be valued and traded in other currencies than US dollar. It (gold)
will become one of the weapons in the future economic warfare of this planet � used by Asian and ME countries in a joint attack on several western countries. By then � in the west - it will be regarded disloyal to own gold.

NEMO

TownCrier
(11/06/2002; 12:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 88907)
FOMC Press Release -- fed funds target lowered by 50bp to 1.25
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/monetary/2002/20021106/default.htmNovember 6, 2002

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 1/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3/4 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. However, incoming economic data have tended to confirm that greater uncertainty, in part attributable to heightened geopolitical risks, is currently inhibiting spending, production, and employment. Inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained.

In these circumstances, the Committee believes that today's additional monetary easing should prove helpful as the economy works its way through this current soft spot. With this action, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals in the foreseeable future.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.

In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and New York.
Blurrmoon
(11/06/2002; 12:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88908)
$$$$ 323.23 $$$$$
As for buying gold now as opposed to buying it in 1960 at $35/oz. i dont know personally, was a young boy. however i would conjecture that to buy today is better as an investment and as a safe harbor. there are more people nowadays you know. gold supply has not grown proportionally. if looking at the price of stamps, inflation is 1,000+% so the cost basis is similar i guess. if looking at the price of gas, inflation is only about 600-700%. the extremely interesting times we have been in since the civil war are only more interesting now, as they will be even more interesting in the nearer future. buying gold now is like buying amazon.com before its' bubble i believe (imho).
NEMO me impune lacessit
(11/06/2002; 12:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 88909)
Re: rate
It looks like the last bottle of booz is handed to the dying alcoholic.

NEMO
GoldnSilver2002
(11/06/2002; 12:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88910)
50 basis points!!An admission " we are in trouble!"?
I have heard it said a cut like this kills the gold carry trade.Can anyone explain?What are the implications for gold?Coz,it doesnt look like it helped the dow at all.Maybe people see it for what it really is,the fed knows something the public doesnt.I guess this way Greenspin can say he did everything he could to save us from ourselves.
Pizz
(11/06/2002; 12:52:14 MDT - Msg ID: 88911)
Fed Rate Cut
Smacks of more desperation. Banks and interest rate derivatives appear to be on the short list for bailouts.

Deflation is not an option. Crank up the presses, cause we're in deeper than all the massaged stats have been indicating.

Controlled inflation and dollar devaluation would appear to be the new "unofficial policy". A half point gives the EU room for a quarter point drop, with a continuous controlled slide for the buck.

Going to be a bit harder to bash gold too much longer. With this dramatic a cut .5/1.75 = 28.5% reduction towards zero, the "inflation" word is going to be bantered about alot.

Wonder if the central banks are still willing to lease gold as required to keep the gold price down as Mr. G. has said. Might be a bit smarter to get it back.

Pizz



R Powell
(11/06/2002; 13:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88912)
Fed rate cut
The announcement came shortly after Comex closed and before the electronic trading market opens. Comex closed at 1:30 EST and the globex starts at 3:15 EST, just a few minute from now.
I'm amazed that they lowered at all, shocked that they lowered by half a point from what was such a low level. My surprise is based on my thoughts that lowering this rate will severely hurt the dollar's strength but this is just my opinion and I'll be the first to admit I know very little about currency (interest) games. About all I know is that lower returns will entice investors out of low interest bearing paper into anything with a higher return.
With an honest inflation number versus low interest returns on paper, (?) negative returns? What do you mean holding gold pays no interest. No interest on an appreciating holding is certainly a whole lot better than any negative returns, no?
I've got a few scouts located on the high ground keeping an eagle eye open for the much anticipated return of Mr. Bigfloat. He's been gone overseas for many years now but rumor has it that he's grown, like Andre the Giant, to huge proportions. Am I right to keep watch for him???
POG and sister POS on the globex. Could be fun to watch!
Rich
Horatio
(11/06/2002; 13:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88913)
As the World Turns
The socialists have been defeated very soundly at the polls.
Risotti resigns from the IRS,after wild claims recounted.First he says 70 billions lost from offshore accounts,now he says 450 million lost.Hell the politicians just spent almost a billion to get elected.450 million is chicken feed.!!!
The socialists lies have been soundly defeated.Gold goes up ,the Dollar down and sound money is making a comeback.
Socialized medicine defeated in Oregon,pot smokers defeated in Arizona and elsewhere at the polls.Now the only thing left to worry about are the fascists.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/06/2002; 13:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 88914)
"The Great Money Giveaway" (at 1.25% ff target, 0.75% discount) supplants the "Strong Dollar Policy"
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Swiss gold francs
Gold Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for awhile.

While the Administration's Treasury Department has fallen mum on the issue, the latest target rate cut (to 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with an institution-saving discount rate at 0.75%!) tells the score loud and clear. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world -- these are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

Gandalf the White
(11/06/2002; 13:56:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88915)
ATTENTION Sir Blurrmoon !! POG Contest Entry ERROR !!
Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 88908)
$$$$ 323.23 $$$$$
===
HELP !!! Whereas your Rule #7 paragraph was "FANTASTIC", you managed to break RULE #3 !!!

How about just $323.2 as it is available !
<;-)
Blackjack
(11/06/2002; 14:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 88916)
Huge rate cut smacks of panic
A white paper released Tuesday estimates that asset deflation has caused 1.16 quadrillion yen in capital losses and calls for implementation of structural reform to bolster the economy.

The report comes at a time when the economy is struggling under the weight of massive bad loans and excessive corporate debts.

The "Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance (2001-2002)" was submitted by Heizo Takenaka, state minister in charge of economic, fiscal and financial policy, to the regular Cabinet meeting the same day.
______________
Inflation would make it easier to pay back loans with cheaper
currency.

Goldcorp rings closing bell on NYSE!
LOL Just on TV.

The huge cut should crush dollar, it should have sent Gold flying.
The market must be in shock. This is incredibly bullish for gold
but no reaction. Now that the cut is in, market overbought, and
dollar weakening tomorrow the SM should correct.
Weird. Weird. Weird.

Does the Fed know something we are not aware of?
Maybe they know numbers on unemployment are cooked?
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 14:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88917)
Uncharted Territory

So here we are, a surpirise interest rate cut of 50 basis points, and a united political front for the first time in 50 years. So where do we go from here? I suspect that we will see a weaker US dollar policy develop and now the Fed will be given a free hand to fire up the printing presses 24/7. We now may see a return to higher PM prices, higher equities prices, and weaker bond prices. In short we could even see an eventual return to the stagflation of the 1970's if some external event like say - higher energy prices - were to act as a trigger. Anyway, I will have to run this through my mind for a while. As I say - "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade
Waverider
(11/06/2002; 14:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88918)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlIt's ALL here...thanks Black Blade!
Sierra Madre
(11/06/2002; 14:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88919)
Enough HIPOCRISY!! I'm coming out of the closet.....

Yes, I'm in STOCKS! Stocks, stocks!! I'm a long-term holder of STOCKS- and I don't care who knows it.

I believe in STOCKS AND BONDS through thick and thin, and my portfolio is substantial and diversified. Hear about my holdings, and cringe:

Republic of Peru 5% gold bonds of 1920
International Rail Road Co. - State of Texas 1874
Mexico North Western Railway Company 1910
Societ� de Navigation Transoceanique, S.A. 1 Aout 1920
Anglo-Ottoman Tobacco Company, Ltd., 1 Dec 1913
5% Loan of the City of Baku, 1910
Lloyd Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Budapest, 1921
The Anglo-Argentine Tramways Co., Ltd., 1910
The St. Petersburg Land and Mortgage Co., Ltd. 1912
Compagnie G�nerale de Chemins de Fer et de
Tramways en Chine, S.A.
Banque Industrielle de Chine 7 Mai 1920
Negociaci--n Minera "El Alacr�n y Anexas", S.A. 22 Oct 1919

These are just a few my choice holdings - lovely to look at, delightful to hold...

Phew, I'm glad I got that off my chest. I've come clean about my STOCKS AND BONDS. I'm not parting with them, no matter what!

Sierra
Gandalf the White
(11/06/2002; 14:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 88920)
OH Sir Sierra Madre !!! <;-)
Sierra Madre (11/06/02; 14:44:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 88919)
Yes, I'm in STOCKS! Stocks, stocks!!
---
YES INDEED !! I too have some of those same STOCKS -- on my wall as wallpaper !!!
<;-)
Operative
(11/06/2002; 14:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88921)
Intrest Rates & Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton072301.htmlOk, so the Fed cuts by 50 points. What does this mean, how does it affect gold?? The above link is to an article written in July 2001 that explains probabilties, and in reading the article in the present time, the author almost appears to have been either a prophet, or physic. Rather long, but worthy of a read IMHO.

Based on the article, it does appear that the "to the moon" so many goldbugs have longed for, is just around the next bend on this golden trail.

Time for serious preparation/accumlation.
makcumka
(11/06/2002; 15:07:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88922)
@ Sierra Madre
I am jealous! Impressive portfolio :0)

Apart from that, here's a question that bothered me for a while. Tried to research it myself, but can't seem to find an answer.

How did the performance of gold mining stocks compare to the overall SM performance during bear markets (or depression)? And was there such thing as gold mining stocks?

Aristotle
(11/06/2002; 15:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 88923)
Bless you, Sierra, you're a stitch!
Keep the faith, brother! I'm sure if you keep 'em long enough those dead dogs will get up and hunt! Just a few more decades...

Thanks for the laugh!!

The Golden Retriever --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 15:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 88924)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Neil George (KCI Comm.):

The chairman of the SEC announced yesterday that he's resigning his post and will head back to his cushy private practice. Harvey, of course, never was that happy in his role
of a lowly paid public servant. Almost immediately, Harvey was bucking his boss and Congress for a raise--along with a better office and cabinet status in the administration. But not all was lost for him during his rather brief tenure. He did manage to forestall more intensive investigations and a greater number of potentially rattling Wall Street fines, sanctions and arrests. For this, Harvey probably has a nice book of chits that he can easily call in to fill his order book of clients and get on with earning his old income, which was typically in the higher seven-figure area.

Bill Webster, Harvey's handpicked man for the job of accounting cop must be sweating a little--even in chilly Washington. Bill is gathering even more opponents to his recent appointment, along with a lawsuit or two concerning his activities as a private attorney and board member of a collection of companies--including one under investigation for fraud. This should come as little surprise to those that knew him during his previous gigs in public service. My cohort and retired super spook Stan Bedlington recently told me that there were sighs of relief and more than a few chuckles coming from the Hoover building when Webster left the FBI for his new digs across the Potomac in Langley to head up the CIA in 1987. But all of the hoopla might be coming to a quick end as rumors are circulating that Webster too will step down from his SEC appointment.


Black Blade: Harvey was a joke in Washington for quite some time. I am surprised that he was offered the job as SEC chairman and I was not surprised that his career ended in disgrace either. His "slap on the wrist" penalties for corporate criminals was gaining legendary status. It is no surprise then that New York City Attorney General Eliot Spitzer took on the job himself and undercut Harvey. Even so, Spitzer is also a disgrace who is handing out his own "slaps on the wrist" for corporate criminals. Maybe Harvey's successor will have some cajones and actually do his job. Time will tell.
Boilermaker
(11/06/2002; 15:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88925)
Money Market Funds to Gold?
The Fed is getting close to shutting down mm funds with the latest move. Where do you suppose the lemmmings will put these dollars? This is the time for the World Gold Council to put their advertising $ into some major financial media.

Boilermaker
Nibelung
(11/06/2002; 15:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 88926)
$$$$319.5$$$$
Buying gold now at its current price range is similar to buying gold for $35 per ounce in the late 1960s. Many of the specifics of the situation are different now, but the key similarity - gold is undervalued and set to rise according to market forces - is firmly in place.
Boilermaker
(11/06/2002; 15:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 88927)
Zero interest financing for CPM Gold
Now we need our gracious host MK to step up like the auto marketers and offer us poor goldbugs similar deals, ie., zero down, no payments for 12 months and a five year bumper to bumper warranty. Thanks, Michael, we love you.

Boilermaker
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 15:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88928)
Pitt replacement will be hard to find
http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/06/news/pitt_replacement/

Giuliani, Breeden among names floated; administration says finding a successor will take time.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - While there was a growing consensus that Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt had to go, finding a replacement everyone can agree on will be a tough job. Pitt's Tuesday night resignation under pressure set off immediate speculation on who his replacement will be.

Black Blade: I submit my name for consideration. Unfortunately I would go after these corporate criminals like a junkyard dog. But then the job of SEC chairman is really a joke and the real job is to slap a few wrists while ignoring the real problem (wink wink, nod and wink).

I see that the POG is solidly higher and the USD is crumbling. Should be "interesting" and "entertaining" tonight.

- Off to the gym!!!
a nation of one
(11/06/2002; 16:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 88929)
the u.s. is still on the road to hell, I see.

There used to be a science fiction story about an amateur astronomer who one night discovered that a number of stars were moving across the sky toward new locations. The story was long, but what it amounted to basically is that the stars ended up spelling the name of a soap, and the owner of the soap company then announced that he had funded research which had resulted in the new process being discovered, by which stars could be moved, and so he chose to use the technique to advertise his product. The outcome of the story was that people bought a whole lot more of that particular brand of soap. I think that is what has happened in the U.S. The party most strongly desirous of power has attained it, partly due to their having produced the most arresting advertisments, and the realities that go along with it. Whether this is good or bad, I leave to others. For the concepts of 'good' and 'evil' are not all that useful, when attempting to assess the actual exigencies of reality. It is clear, though, that inflation destroys most people's wealth, and that inflation is intentionally managed in such ways as achieve that purpose. Also, there can be no lasting doubt that those who lend money, if they are knowledgeable, wholly understand that borrowed money creates a widespread situation leading to deflation -which is created to occur prior to inflation- and this makes it impossible for many of the loans to be repaid. People who do not understand this have not done their homework. It is easy to prove, easy to understand, and, in the present state of the relatively primitive state of human development, which prevails not only in the U.S. but even worse elsewhere, it is clear that managing the economies of nations for the purpose of enriching a few is not only rather easy to accomplish, for those in positions to do so, for themselves as well as for others of their own kind, but it is also not very difficult to keep most people ignorant of it.
Sierra Madre
(11/06/2002; 16:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 88930)
Data on Mexican silver production, Jan 01, to Aug 02:

I hope this table shows up intelligibly after posting:
The first column is production, the second, the average (data in tonnes):

Jan 01 236.7 236.7
Feb 01 250.7 243.7
Mar 249.2 245.5
Apr 195.7 233
May 279.4 242.3
Jun 240.2 241.9
Jul 262.1 244.8
Aug 252.1 245.7
Sep 266.6 248
Oct 278.7 251.1
Nov 252.2 251.2
Dec 266.1 252.4 (12 mo. M.A.)
Jan 02 274.1 255.1 "
Feb. 229.8 253.8 "
Mar. 223.1 251.6 "
Apr. 273.9 258.1 "
May 228.7 253.9 "
Jun 243.4 254.2 "
Jul 204.4 249.4 "
Aug 229.6 247.55 "

The 12 month moving average appears to have peaked about Jan 02 at 255.1 tonnes, with a gradual descent thereafter; although there was a transitory jump upwards in April to 258.1, the trend appears to be a gradual slump in production.

Facts for those who are interested. Source: "INEGI", Mexico.

Sierra
Jan 02
R Powell
(11/06/2002; 16:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88931)
POG in the netherworld
Up now $1.60 on access trading and in Sydney. Perhaps not earth shattering but heading in the right direction. Methinks metals and perhaps all commodities' prices will be arising if the lower rates are perceived as bad medicine for the dollar.

Sierra, I didn't see Pan American airlines in your list of stocks. I still have a certificate framed on the wall for 100 shares I bought at about $2-3/per. Where was the Gummint bailout when Pan Am needed it? I guess they weren't quite big enough to "not fail".

Kodie, 22,500 ounces! I fully understand the need to lighten the load. I was curious as to whether you had decided silver dollar prices would be forever low and, if so, why. Just too heavy to carry I fully understand. Truthfully, now, you didn't even keep a 100 ounce brick for a doorstop?
Rich
Cometose
(11/06/2002; 16:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 88932)
Post 88921 Operative and 88921 Makcumca
Operative

Thanks for the great information in 88921 ; that was an excellent read.

Makcumca

I don't remember where I read this ; it was within the last year ... I just found it ; hope this adresses your inquiry.

From GROW 1000% RICHER IN THE GREAT STOCK PANIC OF 2002 " by Martin Weiss.....

In this section of the book Martin is quoting his Dad Irving Wiess who lived throught this time and he did very well...

P 50
Snippit

" We boughht as much as we could , while we still could - gold coins, shares, bullion , you name it. WHen the confiscation was announced, we were ready. But we were also stunned. We had no idea FDR was going to be that tough.
Dome Mining went from $6 to $61 after the '29 crash. Most investros have no idea how huge the profits were in gold shares after the crash in '29. Homestake , for instance , went from a bottom of $65 per share after the crash to $130 and change in 1931. Form there, it doubled again to more than $350 a share by 1933. By the time it peaked in 1936, it had climbed to $540 and share - an astronomical gain of more than $470 per share . That was a 7 fold increase.

In the meantime, the dividends also doubled . redoubled , and doubled again- reaching $56 per share in 1935. Think about it. The dividends earned in one year alone almost paid back the enire purchase price of the stock .

Homestake was not an isolated example . Dome , another great gold producer, did even better. You could have bought Dome for as little as $6 a share after the crash. But in the next seven years, it paid $16.60 in dividends . The dividends alone were equal to more than 2.5 times the cost of the stock. Meanwhile , the price of Dome rose to $61 . A person who put $10000 into Dome could have walked away with more than $100,000- while nearly everything else remained depressed."

Here's and excerpt on Silver:

"Back then silver was selling for a meager 17 cents per ounce. I knew that industrial demand was about to take off. When I finished the report a couple of months later, Baxter decided the arguments were so strong that we should release the report to our best clients and sbuscribers before making it available to the general public.
The very first person we called was Joe Kennedy, the father of JFK. Kennedy really liked the idea but later , he decided to beg off because his advisors told him it was too much of a "long shot." The man was wealthy enough as it was, but this wound up costing him another fortune.
I bought siver at around 17 cents but I didn't ride it up to $50. I wish I had . I got out of silver
in the 1950's having multiplied my money several times over. I thought I was smart to take a profit like that."

Base on Operative's post following yours .....It looks like this may be in the cards again....
Makes a person want to trade some more fiat for ......physical...It's a good time to be living in the realm of one's means ( job income ) in order to be able to forgo dividends or bond income in preference to holding hard assets in "REAL MONEY " terms....

-Cometose-
Kodie
(11/06/2002; 17:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 88933)
R. Powell

I did keep some rounds, eagles, some 10 oz. bars, a kook or two and 10 100 oz. bars still in the wrappers.

I can't answer the question technically or fundamentally about what the POS is going to do. So, strictly from a personal point of view, I think gold will serve my purposes better. I have a better feeling about gold anyway and it sure is pretty!
Blackjack
(11/06/2002; 17:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88934)
Iran wants to use Gold Dinar
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=11/7/02&Cat=9Νm=3KUALA LUMPUR -- Iran has offered to use the Gold Dinar for bilateral business with Malaysia, Deputy Finance Minister Mohd Shafie Salleh said on Wednesday, IRNA reported.

He said top officials from Iran had expressed their intention to use the dinar in their business transactions with Malaysia under the bilateral payment agreement.

"These officials told me of their intention during last month's Islamic Development Conference in Africa. The meeting was attended by all the finance ministers of the Islamic nations," said Mohd Shafie, who represented Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in the conference.

The prime minister was quoted as saying recently that Malaysia planned to set up a secretariat in the country to promote the idea of using the Gold Dinar among central banks of other Muslim countries.

Speaking to newsmen here, Shafie said that he would be submitting his detailed report to the cabinet on Iran's offer.

He said various issues would have to be taken into consideration, including the current diplomatic and bilateral relations between Malaysia and Iran.
_________________
I think Greenspan wants a weaker dollar. Wants some inflation to
stop deflation.

The media has completely ignored a Taliban Prime Minister
soon to lead Pak parliament. Thats more of a threat than Iraq.
Pak has nukes and missiles and now a pro-taliban PM and
legislature. Thats the big election story.
CoBra(too)
(11/06/2002; 17:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88935)
Who's or is it What's Panicked Sir Allan?
The following is quoted from the Privateer's Gold this Week from last Saturday:

"Waiting For Wednesday?"
The "Wednesday" in question is, of course, Wednesday, November 6. This is the day after the US mid-term elections, and the day when the FOMC meets to decide on US interest rates. Depending on your evaluation of the present state of the US economy and financial system, you are waiting for Wednesday for entirely different reasons.

If you are a Wall Street pundit, or simply a long suffering investor who has not yet given up hope (you certainly have nothing else left) that the US economy and especially the US stock market are on the "road to recovery", you are waiting for Wednesday because you expect the Fed to lower rates by at least 0.25% and preferably by 0.50%. This, if it happens, will be the first Fed rate cut in almost a year and you are "confident" that it will kick start the economy, and more important, the markets.

If, on the other hand (no one armed economists here), you are watching the US economy with your eyes wide open and your mind in gear, you are waiting for Wednesday because it IS the day AFTER the US mid-term elections, and you know that US markets have been held up by main force in the lead up to these elections. You are also waiting to see what the Fed does. You know that if the Fed cuts rates, it will be admitting to anyone with eyes to see that all the talk about US "recovery" was so much hot air. WHY CUT RATES IF THE US ECONOMY IS IN RECOVERY AND IS GROWING? You also know that if the Fed cuts rates, the chances are VERY high that the U.S. Dollar will fall, quite possibly precipitously.
...above quoted from Bill buckler-unquote -

Well, Wednesday has come and the FED has lowered the IR at maximum expectations of 50bp's, following Tuesdays midterm elections seeing GWB as a historical winner of both houses.

The SM's rather reluctantly followed the scrip and closed in positive territory, while the bonds and the $ took a beating. Comex Gold had already closed, due to ongoing short trading hours following 911, though in the access markets POG steadily tagged upwards.

So I'm waiting for Thursday now. The ECB and the BOE will decide on their IR level and I have to admit, I'm clueless. EU politicians demand easing, while the stability pact deteriorated to a mere lip service in view of deteriorating economies, the euro has already surpassed $ parity again today and 'beggar your neighbor" policy seems as the easy way to cope.
Is it? I doubt it, as the EU is facing similar structural economic problems as the US it may be daunting to Wim Duisenberg to see the euro establishing some hegemonial reserve status as well?

As neither fiat currency, hegemonial or not, competing for the perfection to return to its intrinsic value, the real question will be - have the PTB lost its control of PPOG = Paper Price of Gold?

If yes, and I lean towards the demand/supply dis-equilibrium of physical gold the time span to enable the private and personal acquisition of real wealth is drawing to an end ... and as a gent called Scruffy says - BCBN -buy cheap, buy now - cb2



Aristotle
(11/06/2002; 17:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88936)
Hello Pizz. Looks like it's....clarification time!! Hurray!!! Let's ALL play along!
It's good that you question the "properness" of things as you say. So do I.

For good or ill, mankind stumbles along and changes the rules as we go based on the backlash of things gone awry -- things once deemed acceptable (if not exactly proper) but later not so under closer scrutiny of magnification. Sorta like our experimentation with prohibition, I guess. Or fixed-convertibility of money. Or prohibitions on Gold ownership. Or slavery. So on, so forth.

The key is to try to read the road ahead, do your bit to contribute to the improvement of the way, and most important of all, to avoid being crushed as the wheel inevitably goes round.

The part I like best is the little bit of help we occasionally get from a kindly soul here and there along the very narrowest stretches of our journeys; the ones who tell us to look upward -- against all odds when the road ahead seems so compellingly clear cut for the wheels to follow -- thus saving us the blindside crush of falling pianos.

More specifically, you said, "I do question the "properness" of the central banks holding leased gold as an asset on their books."

Let's be clear on this so that everyone can join in a deeper level of understanding. Do you (you=everyone, generally speaking) realize what impropriety the central bank is being accused of here?

Effectively, the CBs are being vilified for putting (as a ledger allocation, not necessarily physically) their Gold on deposit in a savings account under the care of large commercial banking institutions.

Don't we consider our own savings accounts, many of them administered by some of these same commercial banks, to be among our assets?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. In other words, "proper is as proper does." Are you willing to contribute to a new outlook and a new management plan for Gold through your own small behavior? I am. I lead by example. When it comes to Gold it's Physical only and clear ownership. A pox upon unallocated accounts.

Can you concede that if CBs are vilified for depositing Gold into savings accounts, then the rank-and-file chorus for "Ye Olde Gold Standard" has surely lost its harmony? Its so discordant I frankly cringe when I hear mere mention of the tune.

On a final note, I'm saddened to see that you have now joined with others in taking my words and whitewashing away the important nuances that singularly give them credibility.

You said, "And as far as ONLY physical gold? Sir, I respect your thoughts and insights into the issues, but for most people to throw all their eggs into the physical GOLD basket is extremely poor investment advice. EVERYTHING except physical gold is going to go down??? Pretty extreme view."

Thanks for the public castration. I now stand impotent before the world in the eyes of anyone who would see me through your spectacles.

Please scroll down (I beseech you, it's not far) to my 88879 message this morning. A fairer read of it will reveal that you've neglected the operative word "the" as used in the conclusion of my third paragraph.

I was not pitting physical Gold in absolutes against all other investments in absolutes. I was contrasting the endgame fate of only the two sides directly involved in this teeny tiny little Gold-related realm. Here again is my statement, you'll please notice, not pitting Gold (in general, with no "the") against unrelated things in general, but rather specifically pitting THE acquired Gold against THE Gold Promises that stand on the other side of this duet.

I said of these bullion operations, "the financial inflection point in the activity is reached, hailing its structural demise, at which point the accumulated Gold (and ONLY the Gold) pays off big time as the contracts burn out their short remaining timeline."

In that matchup (final showdown) between Physical and Physical-related Promises, what I'm saying is it's only THE Gold-in-hand (side) that wins. If you wanna play around with THAT matchup, pick the physical side. Period.

That's a far cry from advocating (according to your summary) an "all eggs into a physical Gold basket" sorta thing. Hell, a man needs an income stream. What's wrong with dividends from investments in highly profitable business ventures? Nothing! I highly endorse such a thing. Money's a great thing, income is awesome! By all means, tap the vein and plug yourself in. What part of this message gets lost in the transmission??? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!!!!

Please note, Pizz, that you shouldn't confuse the simple passion of exclamation points with anger or whatever. Gold's a GOOD thing, and so is any good-faith conversation about it, as this attempts to be.

Gold. Get you SOME (but not ALL. Unless you really REALY wanna.) --- Aristotle
cyberbat
(11/06/2002; 17:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 88937)
Bankruptcy Alert!!
National Airlines just announced out of Las Vegas that they have gone belly up and have officially filed for bankruptcy.
Please throw this on the bone pile as more refuse builds up!!
Noble1
(11/06/2002; 18:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88938)
A Little Help
I was hoping someone from this illustrious forum could assist me in recalling the title/author of a book. I would like to read it again. Some of the information given may seem superfluous but I'm hoping it will jog somebody's memory. The book was not popular as it was not available in my local library. I had to request that it be borrowed from another institution. I heard of the book while lurking in the old Prodigy precious metal bulletin boards on my Commodore computer in the early/mid 1980's. I believe the author was an American and the son of an Austrian banker and held to a hard money economic principle. I believe the book was written in the late 1970's or early 1980's.
At the time, I was just beginning my career and distinctly remember the dollar was pooh and having to take out a 5 year/21% fixed interest rate note. It was difficult to fathom what the author was predicting---That confidence in the dollar would be restored in such a profound fashion that interest rates would once again fall to 2-3% like they were in the early 1950's. Then, and only then, once all the world/investors/suckers were locked in for 30 years at that low rate---we would undergo a hyperinflation. Sound familiar?
If he was right, I was wondering---Why do away with 30yr Treasuries? Maybe to direct 30yr money to the mortgage market to keep the real estate bubble going?
I know it's not a lot to go by, but any ideas would be appreciated. Perhaps I can recall some more clues.

Noble1

Remember: Gold is the Noble1
steady
(11/06/2002; 18:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88939)
solace and holding gold
i came here today for solace after the fed rate cut my fair knights ,maidens and wizzards. what relief it is to have a place to come to. As it happend to me again today while discussing the rate cut gold came up and dang the preson i was speaking with couldnt get out of the room quick enough. how sad it was to witness someone who will not even give it a second thought. but the posts here have reinvigorated me. thanks ....

town crier re
TownCrier (11/06/02; 10:47:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 88904)
Canadians, it is up to you to own gold; your government won't do it for you
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.html
WGC reports today:
"The Canadian government said yesterday that it had disposed of another 90,937 ounces of gold reserves last month, taking its holdings to 700,000 ounces."

maybe they are depending on gold corp. as by the time its allover gg will have more gold than the canadian govt( ok thats a big speculation but it sounded good. just like this does
free gold.... open the mint... silver first f the imf!
makcumka
(11/06/2002; 19:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88940)
@ Cometose
Thank you for the information. It is definitely going to help in my quest for financial security. If I could only borrow some money at 1.25%....

@ Aristotle

So... you suggest I return my pile of Levi's jeans I was planning on smuggling into old USSR for huge profits and buy gold? Maybe we should figure out a product that could be so desirable that everyone would want it but no one could get it in the US after TSHTF... Oh, I got it, how about a CREDIT CARD? The levels of consumer debt blow my mind.
Blackjack
(11/06/2002; 19:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 88941)
World thinks Iraq war more likely with Bush victory
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20021106-125004-6115rOn the whole, diplomats seem to expect a change in tone coming from Washington rather than any dramatic new shifts in policy. The executive branch always runs foreign policy, aside from big issues like war or peace or the ratification of treaties.

And on the main issues, like threatening war on Iraq or the new national security doctrine that authorizes pre-emptive strikes, have already been decided.

In Asia, officials were trying to assess what the elections could mean for their region. Taku Yamasaki, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, concluded that America's War on terrorism would continue even more forcefully, since the Republican victory "confirms that public opinion remained united behind the Bush administration's policy."

"In terms of foreign policy, Mr. Bush would gain much more leeway in dealing with the war on terrorism and the Iraq threat," said Singapore's Straits Times.

In South Korea, some commentators saw the election result strengthening Bush's hands if he decided to get tough with North Korea over its admission that it was enriching uranium with a view to developing nuclear weapons.

But they also feared the Korean issues might be on the back burner, after Powell called Foreign Minister Choi Sung-hong on Wednesday and said he had to cancel a planned visit to South Korea next week because of "unavoidable circumstances" related to the U.N. Security Council resolution on Iraq.

In Europe and the Middle East, media comment seemed to expect a tougher line coming from Washington over Iraq, with an agreed resolution in the U.N. Security Council said to be very close.

"The prospect of waging war on Iraq looks to be increased," Qatar-based Al Jazeera TV said Wednesday.
______________
Bush's hand has been strengthened to pursue his economic
and foreign policies now.
Blackjack
(11/06/2002; 19:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88942)
Big trouble brewing in Pakistan
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=33145In a surprising development, a broad coalition of Islamic parties have cobbled together enough mandates to form a ruling coalition in Pakistan.

This was accomplished in part through the cooperation of Benazir Bhutto, President Musharraf's arch political rival. The group is expected to formally attempt to form a government in the next few days.

This development is being viewed with alarm in Washington, as it would install a pro-Taliban government in control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
_________________
Mainstream media not covering this story. This is a real problem
for the world. Iraq is small potatoes compared to Pak nukes and
missiles.

Then again, Pak has no oil. Its all about who controls
Iraq oil. US & UK vs Russia, France and China.
silvercollector
(11/06/2002; 19:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 88943)
Just got back into town........
Wow! Half a point? Are we not thoroughly into 'negative return' now?

After inflation, investing in UST must be now a losing proposition. What happens now?

P.S.: I agree with the escalation of the Iraq smacking. It is a known Bush wants to go, the 'green light' he received can only be perceived as a endorsement of his bellowing. Hussein's goose is cooked.
Waverider
(11/06/2002; 21:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 88944)
Steady
Hold *steady* on your charted course - and please do not be discouraged by someone's responses. One thing I've learned is that although I may not see ANY results of my efforts for something - i.e. when trying to influence someone's attitudes, beliefs, etc., there are times when I have planted a seed - some I never know about - or sometimes I find out years later that some seemingly insignificant comment, or debate or action in fact inspired someone beyond my wildest expectations. You may have planted a seed today which will take root in the future - don't despair just because the response was not immediate - and persevere - years of brainwashing by the media and government doesn't change overnight. Cheers,

Waverider
Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 21:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 88945)
Time For Insurance!!! � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Time to Take Out an Insurance Policy

The dictionary defines insurance as "an insuring or being insured against loss; a system of protection against loss�." I would suggest to most investors that now is the time to think about owning insurance against financial loss. The insurance I'm referring to is gold and silver. The surprise rate cut by the Fed today of 1/2 a point speaks volumes as to the amount of risk in the financial system. Systemic risk is everywhere and especially here in the US. The fact that the Fed cut rates a half a point says that economic prospects are much more bleak than is reported. The profit picture in the US has been in a freefall since 1997. Whatever gains in the economy that has been accrued from consumer spending has mainly been in the housing sector and in foreign imports. Despite record consumption by consumers, the main beneficiary of that consumption binge has been with foreign manufacturers as America's traded deficits have ballooned from close to $130 billion in 1997 to today's annual deficit of $500 billion. While the trade deficit has ballooned, debt levels have skyrocketed across all sectors of the American economy.


Black Blade: Definitely! Every portfolio should be anchored with a sound solid foundation with hard assets like Gold and Silver before branching out into less solid and less sound investments like stocks and bonds (Note the nice graph at the top of the page at the link). Considering the events of the last 24 hours all I can say at this point is that we definitely live in "Interesting Times". It appears that war is now more likely than ever and the desperate interest rate cut will have very little if any effect (see Japan).

Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 21:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 88946)
Strategists counter market optimists - They advise watching yields, gold, Brazil and banks
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4D0DB3AF%2DC090%2D47B9%2D8CC7%2D1145805C3B7E%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

John Hathaway, manager of gold fund Tocqueville Asset Management (TGLDX): "The worst bear market in 25 years, corporate scandals, accounting heresy and all too evident geopolitical risks have caused only a modest rise in the gold price. This sort of skepticism is reassuring and supports our expectation that significantly higher gold prices lie ahead. The core safety nets that have absorbed the tide of risk-averse capital instead of gold are government bonds, real estate mortgages and credit derivatives. Pay careful attention to yield spreads, the share prices of money-center banks, particularly large derivative players such as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), the trade-weighted dollar index, the share prices of (FNM) Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the share prices of mortgage insurers ... and the shape of the yield curve."

Robert Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report: "I continue to be amazed at the lack of conviction that some have about where we stand in the current gold cycle. Despite closing in on the third year in a row with gold having advanced, while virtually everything else has declined, there exists a tentativeness that does not lend itself to the reflexive embrace of lower prices. Two decades of decline will understandably lead to such a loss of confidence, and it's clear that only much higher gold prices will make certain buyers of today's uncertain fence-sitters."


Black Blade: Yep, today I was talking with a couple of people at the gym about gold. They asked about the potential of gold now that rates have been cut to 44-year lows and the change in politics toward a more restrictive authoritarian government. I have to admit that it is an interesting question, but the price of gold should rise substantially from here. The average price of gold since the $875 an ounce spike during exceptional circumstances has been between $380 to $420 an ounce. With the economy deteriorating rapidly and more exceptional events on the horizon (war and higher energy costs anyone?) the price of gold is horrendously undervalued. The price should be well north of the upper range of $420 an ounce � maybe $600+ an ounce for starters. Obviously we have a lot of upward potential for the price of gold.

Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 22:14:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88947)
SEC's Inquiry of IPO 'Laddering' Marks Goldman, J.P. Morgan
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=808&ncid=808&e=13&u=/dowjones/20021106/bs_dowjones/200211060331000243
Snippit:

The regulatory investigation of IPO "laddering" is reaching a peak, Wednesday's Wall Street Journal reported. The enforcement staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission has notified Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) that it has recommended filing civil securities- fraud and market-manipulation charges against the securities firm for allegedly steering hot IPOs to investors who signaled plans to buy additional shares, people familiar with the matter say. The SEC also has notified the securities unit of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. that it could face similar civil charges in the agency's probe of laddering, in which investors who indicated they planned to buy more shares at higher prices after trading began were allegedly able to get more shares of initial public offerings, the people say.


Black Blade: So I wonder how much of a token fine they will end up paying � another slap on the wrist I bet. If this were a case against those who are not "connected" or have inside influence you can bet the dogs would be set loose. I don't expect any significant punishment to be meted out here. Nothing a well placed campaign contribution won't fix.

Pizz
(11/06/2002; 22:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88948)
Aristotle
Yes Ari, we should make allowances for things such as potential public backlashes, etc. and yes we need to take these things into consideration, and I'm glad you agree.

As far as falling pianos, again I agree, but there is somewhat of a difference between a piano falling and Southern California dropping into the sea, which is a closer description (in MY opinion) to the end game in paper as you see it coming.

And for a physical only guy, your defense of the CB's and leasing has me just a bit baffled. You find no problem with the CB's leasing their physical out and still recording it as if it were still in the vaults? Come on. Personally I'd be happy if they'd just footnote their leased assets.

And disagreeing with you is the equivalent of public castration? Next time capitalize THE nuances instead of the ONLY and more will get your message.

And as far as other investments and income? How about a little silver and some A-hole in the goround gold stocks to round out the disaster insurance. Silver wasn't confiscated by the government in 33, doesn't have a nuesmatic premium as does pre 33 coins (just in case we repeat the past) and as one of our poster so stated, the dividends on some good gold stocks were pretty good during the 30's. And besides, PM demand in all forms pushes the price for all UP.

Sorry that you appear to take diversified views personal, but I personally won't put all my eggs into the physical gold only basket at the expense of other good PM investments, cause my crystal ball just doesn't seem to be quite as clear as yours.

Just one beancounter's minor disagreements and opinion.

And nothing personal. . . .

Pizz





Black Blade
(11/06/2002; 22:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88949)
Wait for U.S. Single-Stock Futures Is About Over: Taking Stock
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcih_hVwV2FpdCBm
Snippit:

New York, Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Mace Blicksilver, a hedge fund manager, is among those anticipating the U.S. introduction of futures on individual stocks. He expects the contracts to make it faster and less expensive to profit from falling share prices.``They'll be much easier to handle'' than sales of borrowed shares and option trades, said Blicksilver, a managing director of Marblehead Asset Management in New York. ``I am counting the days until I can use single-stock futures.'' He doesn't have much longer to wait. OneChicago, a joint venture of Chicago's futures and options exchanges, and Nasdaq Liffe Markets, a venture of the Nasdaq Stock Market and Europe's second-largest futures and options exchange, will introduce the contracts on Friday. Nasdaq Liffe's futures received their final approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. Until now, stock futures have been available in the U.S. only for indexes, such as the Standard & Poor's 500.

Black Blade: Whaddya know, another game table opening up at the casino.

auenboy
(11/06/2002; 22:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 88950)
Gold Guess
$$$$333.70$$$$
Just like the late 60's the same cartel is managing the price, the same banks (some names have been changed or merged)are in trouble, the same countries are going broke or in trouble, and the same Fed, BIS, and IMF are trying to but the mess back together, fix the problem they helped create. If they fix the problem like the last time (we can only hope),I have little doubt the pundits that talk > $1000 gold will be right, and as many have said here before, the late comers, still licking their wounds from the dot com era will be lining up to buy gold at their local bank or coin dealer.
Gandalf the White
(11/06/2002; 22:53:24 MDT - Msg ID: 88951)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
GC2Z Gold Contract Price Settlement CONTEST !!SIXTH UPDATE as of 22:50 Denver time 11/06/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
(looks as if Sir Frosty is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be some "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)
GratefulForGold
(11/06/2002; 23:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 88952)
Black Blade #88949 � Single Stock Futures

Hmmm. Maybe I'm still too naive but my mind twitched when I read of yet another casino game they've created! Now, my head is shaking in resigned, bewildered sadness. Incredible. I guess that since the 401k-ers aren't actively playing the SM, only the gambler/speculator psyches are left and the casino has to create some new games to interest them (and relieve them of their fiat).
DOWNUNDER
(11/06/2002; 23:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88953)
IT'S ENOUGH TO MAKE YOU SPEW ! -- - -
"Bush's hand has been strengthened to pursue his economic
and foreign policies now" ---

With apologies to Blackjack for useing the last part of his 941 post. It's a sad day for the world that this egomaniac jackass has been given almost total control.Looking back is
a good indicator for what lies ahead from this most crooked of administrations -only now in SPADES! A lot of Americans seem to have blinkers on & see the Prez as Royalty - never to be denigrated especially in public & taboo for an outsider. Well I want to call a spade a spade & if it's any consolation to the die hard patriots,the Australian prime minister is an A$$hole & his ministers are a bunch of *ickheads! Now I feel better!
TEX
(11/06/2002; 23:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88954)
DOWNUNDER
Woah Dude........like, do you mean things would be better off back in the "good old days" of Clinton?

Sorry if this is a little off subject (Gold).

Nuff sed.....goin to bed.
Galerider
(11/06/2002; 23:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88955)
DOWN UNDER
Royalty? Not to be derided publicy? I'll drop a name for ya,
NIXON. But, on the other hand, I can't believe how much Clinton got away with. If GW is an egomaniac, hopefully there will be some cooler Republican heads prevailing in future sessions.
DOWNUNDER
(11/06/2002; 23:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 88956)
GET RID OF THE GOVERNMENT CARTEL. LET'S TRY FREEDOM
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/champeau110802.htmlHi TEX - -No I don't think we/you would be better off back in the "good old days" of Clinton. I was however hoping that the "power" would not be lop-sided as it is now.

I "stole" the heading for this post from an article by that name at another site.Follow the link it's very well worth the read.

SNIPS-
The biggest cartel of all - Government

Of course none of the world's cartels could exist without the one cartel that has the "monopoly on force", GOVERNMENT.

By government cartel I obviously mean the US and its satellite organizations, United Nations, World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, etc., with the backing of the US Court system and the military.

Just as the credit bubble is the foundation for all the other bubbles in the global financial system, government, especially the US Imperial government, is the foundation for all of the world's cartels.

The cartels operate with the blessing of the government in a symbiotic relationship. The government acts as the "enforcer" while the cartel members share the spoils with the government.
-------------------
"Let's do away with the modern day aristocracy. We need to do away with the power that the current group of cartels has and get back to a free society and free markets. The only way to do that is to weaken the strongest of the cartels.

In the US the way to do this is to stop voting for Democrats and Republicans.

GET RID OF THE GOVERNMENT CARTEL. LET'S TRY FREEDOM"
Bound Spirit
(11/06/2002; 23:58:53 MDT - Msg ID: 88957)
$$$$$320.0$$$$$
Just for fun, I performed a little present worth analysis to determine the compounded interest rate between Gold priced at $35/oz in 1969 and gold at $320/oz in 2002. It works out to an annual compounded interest rate for n = 33 years at approximately 6.93%. Now, if the historical average PE ratio for the S&P 500 works out to be about 13.5, the reciprocal of that average ratio represents an average annual equity return of approximately 7.41%.

So lets see, if I bought some gold in 1969 and buried it in my back yard for 33 years, I would have made just about as much if I played the stock market for 33 years. But there's one big glaring difference though. In order to realize a 7.41% annual return in equities, I would need to diligently learn about, apply, and focus intensely on, things like: Technical analysis, geo-political conditions, accounting practices, monetary policy, fiscal policy, market dynamics, corporate dynamics, CEO integrity, quarterly reports, trade imbalances, credit quality, etc, etc, etc. Day after day after day after day.

You know, a great way to create a keen sense of focus in rats is to throw one into a deep glass container and fill it half way up with water.

As far as I'm concerned, our fiat dollar, especially the one created in 1971, has created a populous of keenly focused rats�..er, I mean investors. After 31 years, its truly impressive how much effort they expend to keep their heads above water and how quickly they can react to the slightest perceived change in surface conditions.

Unfortunately, many physical gold advocates, even though they don't need to worry about drowning themselves, have had to jump in that glass container as well - primarily out of their social need to help those who are slowly drowning. They had to jump in because the only way to catch what's left of a drowning persons attention span is to engage them from within their own paradigm. Maybe, just maybe, or so the gold advocates� hopes go, these highly focused, narrow minded investors have a small piece of mindspace left where they can still be receptive to the idea that life is better on dry land. That they can still hear that it's not only better because you can quit worrying about drowning, it's better because you're free to explore an endless variety of new paradigms - including those lofty realms of love, beauty and truth. Heck, they might even find enough time to start wondering about radical concepts like meaning and purpose. And if that happens, well, don't dwell on the past, everyone has regrets. Philosophically speaking, we all have to tread water for a time before we can find our own way out of the glass jar.

Well, so much for utopia. The truth is, there are very few gold advocates in the water for the right reasons, and far too many people drowning for those advocates to effect any real sea change. In other word's: "you can't be told about the matrix, you've got to see it for yourself" and their just aren't enough red (gold) pills to go around.

Back to the subject at hand. In 1969 the water depth was not quite over our heads and for most, the distinction between gold and dollars was not a significant one. Today, in 2002, we are just about exhausted, death is near, and the idea that our nation can reaffirm the precepts necessary to "insure domestic tranquility" exists only within that most basic of human traits � hope.
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 00:14:36 MDT - Msg ID: 88958)
CONGRATULATIONS Sir Trapper !
Your POG entry was the FIRST to be "BRACKETED" !!! <;-($$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735
---
MUST be a good number!
<;-)
Aristotle
(11/07/2002; 00:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 88959)
Pizz, progress!
"for a physical only guy, your defense of the CB's and leasing has me just a bit baffled." ---Pizz 88948

Excellent! Your own thought will be the only thing that results in anything meaningful outta this whole deal.

Sort it out until the baffling aspect fades.

(I assure you, if I could just hand it to you I would. It's been handed to me, I took it, and likewise I've passed it round. Done it here, and this is where we are -- evidence that everyone can't be so easily reached no matter how diligent the try.)

My best --- Ari
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 00:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 88960)
US starting to look like Japan
http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3415078.htmlBanks already are struggling with an increased level of bad debts, so continued weakness in the economy won't help on that front. And with deposit rates already near a floor, the latest cut in rates poses the threat that some banks will simply have to live with a smaller average margin between the rates at which they borrow money and the rates at which they can lend it.

Bank analyst Jon Arfstrom at RBC Capital Markets agreed with Sohn that the Fed "sent a message that it has stepped on the gas. That 50-basis-point cut . . . sends the message that maybe the Fed sees something that the market does not see, such as [potential] loan quality issues," Arfstrom said.

"Generally, bank stocks rally when the Fed cuts rates. But we are at a point in time where short-term rates are so low that banks don't have the ability to lower deposit costs any further. And their [loan] asset yields are certainly going to come down," he added. "So there may be some near-term hiccup in the margins, but certainly over time it should benefit some borrowers -- which ultimately should benefit some of the banks."

Other analysts said that community banks will be hurt by the Fed's action more than the larger banks because they rely heavily on deposits to fund their loans, and any reduction in rates would only further discourage people from putting cash in the bank. Larger banks typically draw on a range of sources for their funds.

Many banks simply can't cut their deposit rates any further, said analyst John O'Connor with Fort Washington Investment Advisors.

"Banks are only paying 1 percent or less on all deposit accounts. Pretty soon you will have to pay them to hold your money," joked O'Connor. While some borrowers will benefit, retirees and others who rely on interest income will suffer further from the interest cut, he added.
______________
This sounds like the problem in Japan. Bad loans at banks.
MM interest rates so low its below the low inflation rate.
It looks like an act of desperation by the Fed. They don't want to
do what Japan did, lower interest rates slowly in the face of
deflation. The Fed decided to be more aggressive but it looks
like we are drifting into a Japan style deflation.
Downunder no apology needed, you can repost anything.
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 00:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88961)
Marketwatch article on yahoo boards
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7B2875D3F0-EF90-4409-9D4B-AC984B748EAD%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahooSAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The stock market may have reacted with a nifty rally in the wake of the Fed rate cut Wednesday afternoon, but there was clearly no joy in cyberspace.

"Greenspan's Fed is obviously now in white-knuckle terror mode," posted Yahoo's MRRE1999: "After aiding and abetting massive debt accumulation and hyper-inflated asset bubbles in stocks and housing they now face the return swing of the pendulum, deflation and depression. There have never been so many incompetents in high places, at a critical time in our history, as there is now."

Even before the market swooned in the extended session, virtual investors were convinced that the short-term uptick wouldn't hold.

Take AMDCleanKilled who pretty much called the reversal: "Expect the market to digest the REAL FACT that interest rates were cut so much because the economy is virtually dead and then the market will tank. I think this rally is about over."

Well then, what do we do about it?

Yoddle-ay-he-hoo! Wcrimi chimed in with his thoughts: "The Fed is pretty much giving away money now in order to prop up Wall St, the banking system, and the existing excesses - no matter how much long term damage he does to the country. It's getting to the point where there are simply no options that offer appropriate risk adjusted returns.

"It's time to consider moving some percentage of your investment portfolio to Switzerland. Greenjeans is a madman!"

And 3rdHerd didn't exactly wax liberal with his solution: "I suspected they would lower that much as they just want to keep this puppy propped up until we can hit Iraq. Kinda reminds me of trying to skip over a river jumping from the back of one alligator to the next, hoping we don't misstep. Next stop Iraq, to expand our power base and control oil. What other alternatives do we have?"

Bottom line: Greenspan's just riding the white horse, according to SuAmigo: "Mr. Fed doesn't seem to grasp that no matter how low the funds rate, firms will not invest into excess capacity, will not invest into a declining rate of profit. The funds rate is mediated by the real market, by real private financial institutions, that cutting this rate is no more beneficial to the real economy than another shot of heroin for a dying addict."
______________
Hey, sounds like this board! LOL
Risk adjusted return in PMs.
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 01:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 88962)
Insider sales at MSFT seem relentless
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/m/msft.htmlThe above link takes you to Yahoo page on the insider sales
at MSFT corp. Sale after sale. No buying. Its an incredible list.

You would think the media might mention these sales.
Looks like massive cashing out. Doesn't look like the
insiders at MSFT are bullish on the market.
Operative
(11/07/2002; 01:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88963)
Trapper, Live Small Indeed!!
http://www.wired.com/news/privacy/0,1848,56234,00.htmlGoing to have to keep tabs as the Bushies gain reign as in total control.
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 02:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88964)
Bengalis turn to Gold
http://in.biz.yahoo.com/021106/26/1xef0.htmlTraders said the middle class was flocking back to gold as the preferred investment option with other options losing sheen.

Falling interest rate on deposits and poor stock market returns have turned Bengalis to gold. "Dhanteras acted as a trigger to utilise liquid cash for buying gold," they pointed out.

Dey said many of the buyers were first timers. "Over 40 per cent of them were new customers from all walks of life. I have never seen people queuing up with pockets full of cash to buy gold," Dey noted.

Gold coins were the normal purchase during Dhanteras but this year Bengalis rushes to buy gold jewellery. The price of standard 10 grams gold ruling at Rs 5100 did not deter purchases.

In response, shops rushed to offer freebies and discounts over the weekend and extended hours of trading. Heavy discounts were offered on jewellery making charges. Others offered free snacks to waiting customers.

Lucky draws and free mehendi applications sessions were advertised in Bengali newspapers. However, most shops were caught off-guard by the sudden rush.
_____________
"Falling interest rate on deposits and poor stock market returns"
Its that way in most of the world, join the club.
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 03:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 88965)
NTT profit down 95%
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021107/0318000244_3.htmlTOKYO -- NTT DoCoMo Inc. said Thursday its group net profit plunged 95% to 4.2 billion yen ($34.5 million) for the six months ended Sept. 30 because of massive valuation losses on investments in foreign telecom firms.
----
The most depressing trend for NTT DoCoMo remains the sluggish demand for its " FOMA" 3G mobile services. Launched last October with the aim of reaching 2.15 million subscribers by March 2003, the service only had a disappointing 140,000 users as of September end. Thursday, DoCoMo significantly slashed its 3G service user goal to 320,000 from its already revised estimate of 1.38 million.
_________________
I wonder what the debt situation is here.
Slash prices , more deflation.
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 03:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88966)
European Central Bank will have to cut soon
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2414643.stmSeasonally adjusted joblessness rose 22,000 in October, far more than average market forecasts, and taking the overall figure to 4.119 million.

This is the fourth month in a row that unemployment has lingered above 4 million, a level seen as evidence of the government's failure to create jobs in the past two years.

The news is the latest sign that Germany's economy is not recovering as fast as hoped from the recession at the end of last year.

And since Germany accounts for two-thirds of eurozone economic output, it will increase calls for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates when its governing council meets later on Thursday.
______________
The devaluation race is on!
Cut and Burn

Topaz
(11/07/2002; 03:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 88967)
The long and short of it- Don't write off Buckaroo just yet.
We should have seen it coming (the 50bp cut)- Long bond yield spike thru early-mid October, after basing @ 4.65% was "let go" to 5.15%.
I'm thinking official buying was suspended just long enough to create a plausable "long-cash" spread WITH a rate-cut. There was no wriggle room left in Bonds 4.65-1.75. Now @ 5.05-1.25 a sense of normality should prevail short-term.
This opens the door for a Long Bond retest of 4.5% or even 4.15% going forward - and I'm thinking, a stronger Dollar, until of course, the wheels come off.

Arcticfox
(11/07/2002; 03:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 88968)
I like this quote..taken from k board..
The last 11 interest rate decreases didn't buoy the stock market and increased the downward pressure on the dollar. As Einstein said, "the first sign of madness is to do the same thing over and over while each time expecting a different result." I think Einstein was telling Greenie that #12 wouldn't do anything that numbers 1 thru 11 didn't also do.

mas
(11/07/2002; 04:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 88969)
IR's in EU
BlackJack just heard they didn't cut (Bloomberg). So maybe the race ain't on, so to speak.
Got Gold and Euro's?
AbsoluteX
(11/07/2002; 04:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88970)
TA
http://www.geocities.com/zavazingo999/pics/gold.jpgIf we go over $322(+1) (which lokoks very possible at this time), we will reach in a short period of time to $338 level..
AbsoluteX
(11/07/2002; 04:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88971)
TA
http://www.geocities.com/zavazingo999/pics/index.htmlSorry other link was broken
Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 04:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 88972)
Market Indicators Mixed
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The market futures indices indicate a sharply lower open on Wall Street. Petroleum prices are higher on anticipation of looming war between the US and Iraq now that the Prez has a free hand. The price of Gold is higher on rock bottom interest rates as a stake has been driven through the heart of forward selling by vampire Gold producers and is now finally a dead issue. The USD is flat and just wallowing about looking for direction. Looks like an "entertaining" day is on tap when Wall Street opens for business.

- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
(11/07/2002; 05:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 88973)
$$$$ 331.4 $$$$
Buying gold now at 320 is exactly like buying gold then at 35. The same perception change is in the works. Wealth is being redefined. We all need a reference point when discussing something, and for now, people are using the US dollar as the measuring rod for worth all over the world. It has replaced the gold standard.
When the perception changes that the dollar is not serving this role fairly, then alternatives are considered. People naturally return to gold because of it's historical role as the surest measurement of wealth. As the consititution says, the dollar is just an adjective describing a certain amount of precious metal. Every so often, people delude themselves into thinking they are gods and can control everything. This virtual reality world of delusion always ends when it is realized that just because you make up some game that fools everyone for a while doesn't mean you have changed the laws of nature, or physics. The world needs ANOTHER way of measuring wealth and cost and value. When people stop defining things in terms of dollars and begin using something like grams of gold, then we will have an economic system that is not subject to these games and manipulations.
Blurrmoon
(11/07/2002; 06:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 88974)
$$$$ 323.2 $$$$$
Yes Sir GW, one decimel will do fine. thank you.
CoBra(too)
(11/07/2002; 06:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 88975)
ECB - Eurozone Rates Unchanged at 3.25%!
Also BoE no change at 4% - Seems Alan is alone this time around... cb2


Kojak
(11/07/2002; 06:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 88976)
interest rates are FAR too high
It looks as if we would drop into one of the worst depressions in Germany. 3.75% vs. 1.25% vs. 0%

Japan and Europe will fall into deflation, while the U.S. will bail out via low US$.

The motivation behind the non-lowering could be that leading European politicians demanded lower interest rates. Of course the "independent" ECB couldn't lower as it would have made them look like the puppets of politics.

regards
Kojak
Albatros
(11/07/2002; 07:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 88977)
Honourable Gangalf the White
Thanks for your warm welcome. I have been lurking for some time, content in reading the words of wisdom within. Couldn't resist joining the contest though. Your question #7 is interesting. The various submissions have created a new sense of perspective. Sir Bound Spirit's figures, in conjunction with Sir Robotguy's suggested peek at BigCharts DJIA over the same period of time is interesting. I'm putting to sea tomorrow to join my fine feathered friends for 5 weeks & don't have time to say more. I will look forward to reviewing events here upon my return. Keep up the good work here everyone in clarifying the collective consciousness! I am sure many Hobbits appreciate the time & effort the Elders put into keeping us informed...
RobotGuy
(11/07/2002; 07:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 88978)
POG is lookin a little spikey today!
Cheers!
Boilermaker
(11/07/2002; 08:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88979)
Investors starting to think
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/financial_sia_survey_1.htmlReuters
Investor confidence in Wall Street at 8-year low
Thursday November 7, 10:27 am ET


BOCA RATON, Fla., Nov 7 (Reuters) - Hit by corporate scandals and the stock market decline, investors' opinion of Wall Street and brokers has fallen to its lowest level in eight years, according to a survey released on Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT


At the top of the list of investor concerns is losing money in the stock market and corporate dishonesty, the Securities Industry Association's annual investor survey, conducted by Harris Interactive, found.

As a result, 49 percent of survey respondents said they were less willing to take risks to achieve potentially higher investment gains than they were 12 months ago. The survey polled 1,500 investors between Aug. 22 and Sept. 22.

"Americans' opinions of the capital markets have been tested," Allen Morgan Jr., SIA chairman and chairman of Morgan Keegan & Co. Inc., said in a statement. "Our credibility and integrity are being questioned."

Of those polled, 55 percent said they have a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" opinion of the securities industry, down from 62 percent in 2001 and 63 percent in 2000. "Very favorable" ratings fell to 9 percent from 22 percent in 2001.

The industry's reluctance to punish wrongdoers was cited by 68 percent of those surveyed as one of the big problems, up from 41 percent in 2001.

Greed was cited as a big problem by 66 percent, up from 52 percent in 2001 and 49 percent in 2000.

Declining confidence is a serious issue for Wall Street, which has seen profits fall amid the market decline.

Among investors who have brokers, only one in five said he were "extremely" or "very" satisfied with the performance of his investments held with the broker. That is about half the level of 2001 and less than one-third the level of 2000.

"We're encouraging brokers to be more in contact with their customers," said Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MWD - News) John Schaefer, who runs the firm's brokerage unit.

Looking ahead, 29 percent of the respondents believe 2003 will be a "very good" or "good" year for investing, similar to 2001's results.

Comment;
55% still think favorably of the securities industry. Bear market will bottom out when this percentage goes under 20%.
Get thee some precious metals and watch the fireworks.
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 09:06:50 MDT - Msg ID: 88980)
Update on Brazil
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcnzShXeQnJhemls``The pension system is a bomb ready to explode,'' said Raul Velloso, a self-employed economist in Brasilia who specializes in public finances. ``The government is forced to implement giant spending cuts just to cover the pension deficit.''

This year, Brazil's retirement program for civil servants will generate three quarters of the social security system's 70.1 billion reais shortfall. The deficit created by government retirees, which is equivalent to 3.9 percent of gross domestic product, rises by 0.3 percent of GDP each year, economists said.

`Heart of Crisis'

``This is the heart of the Brazilian crisis,'' said Mailson da Nobrega, a former finance minister. ``With such a deficit, the government cannot reduce the tax burden and make the economy grow.''

Pensions for former private and state employees together account for 41 percent of government expenditure and salaries a further 39 percent. That leaves 20 percent to fund services such as education, health and aid to the poor -- Lula's priorities.

Investor concerns that Lula, a former union leader, won't cut spending enough to avert a debt default have caused Brazil's currency to drop 37 percent this year, to about 3.7 reais per dollar. The benchmark 8 percent bond that matures in 2014 fell 27 percent to about 56 cents on the dollar.
_______________
@Mas : ECB will cut soon. Unless you think the European economy
doesn't need it. Do you think the European economy will look
strong in the next couple weeks? I think ECB will cut before the
end of the year.
CoBra(too)
(11/07/2002; 09:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 88981)
Financials weaken (From CBS)
"Dow stock J.P. Morgan (JPM: news, chart, profile) fell over 4 percent after sliding as much as 9.3 percent early in the session amid speculation about possible losses in its derivatives operations. The stock came off its lows after a J.P. Morgan spokesperson called the talk "false and irresponsible." Fellow Dow components American Express and Citigroup rose 2.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively."

The original article expressively states JPM's gold derivative (dhort) positions. False and irresponsible rumours have been proven correct before, is it Argentina, Enron, World Com et al. JPM's latest Quarter losses and write-offs started as rumours too - and were officially denied until they had to show their true colors.

Where there's smoke there surely is some fire. Considering a derivative book total of 25 Trillion US$ - 2 and 1/2 times the US annual total GDP! ... and throw in bad debts, downgrading of their own and top it off with some pending lawsuits by and against some insurance co's unwilling to pay up to the Enron scham, you'ce got a concoction of which Harry Potter would be proud of.

The too big to fail may prove too big to bail - Got Gold? cb2



Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 09:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 88982)
"Nonexistent demand in job market"
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of TMP Worldwide Inc.TMPW.O , parent of online job site Monster.com, fell sharply on Thursday after it reported weak third-quarter earnings and slashed its fourth-quarter view, citing the sluggish economy that has dampened the job-search market.

Shares of TMP, also a leading executive search service firm and one of the world's largest Yellow Pages advertising agencies, fell $3.17, or about 20 percent, to $12.63 in morning trade, making it the biggest percentage loser on the Nasdaq.

TMP late on Wednesday said its third-quarter earnings fell by close to half due to the persistent slump in the labor market, and warned of a similarly dismal fourth quarter.

On a conference call early on Thursday, TMP Chairman and Chief Executive Andrew McKelvey said "job creation is virtually at a standstill with little to no growth," with hiring budgets lagging the overall economy as firms wait to see if higher payroll expense is warranted.

"These challenging market conditions have had and continue to have negative effects on our top-line results," he said.

The company, which last month said it would spin off two lagging units, expects to break even in the fourth quarter, far below Thomson First Call's consensus earnings estimate of 14 cents per share. It was the third consecutive quarter that TMP warned of profits below expectations.

U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Analyst Brett Manderfeld on Thursday cut his rating on TMP Worldwide to "underperform" from "outperform," citing the disappointing financial and "continued nonexistent demand" from the hiring markets.
barnaclebob
(11/07/2002; 09:35:01 MDT - Msg ID: 88983)
$$$$319.80$$$$
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse090902.htmlBack when gold was $35 per oz. a home cost $10,000, a car $2,000, and the average hourly wage was $1.50 per hour. Inflation has grown all prices X10.

The average home today is $100,000+, a car $20,000+ and the average wage is $15.00+ per hour, it's all times ten.

Gold is really a true value using the X10 equation. The equation indicates a POG @ $350, yet we can buy it at the discounted price of $315 - $325. That is until the forces of inflation/deflation and/or fear of systemic economic failure forces capitulation resulting in safe haven demand. When the financial system capitulates, gold will prove the only safe "port of call" as paper burns, X20 will only be a beginning......

Don't wait till the ship leaves port!

BB
(NIA)
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 09:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 88984)
@Cobra(too) more from CBS
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B31E6A5C7%2DF042%2D4632%2DAAB4%2D067E793F5225%7D&siteid=mktw"Unemployment will be a vicious problem," Russell said. "Before next year is out, we'll see another 20 percent drop in the dollar. China is at economic war with the West. I wouldn't be surprised if it backs (its currency) with gold."

As for specific recommendations, he pointed to Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest gold producer, as the "bellwether" investment in troubled fiscal times. Russell said the 18 gold mining stocks he follows demonstrated strong accumulation this week as measured by advancing prices on rising volume.

"There is going to be tremendous resistance to the idea of gold from the people who produce the junk paper. I'm talking about the Federal Reserve, of course," said Russell, eliciting applause. "The central banks want you to believe gold is junk and their paper is not. Gold has been in a bear market for 20 years. To many, it is only something you fill your teeth with."

On Thursday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), the nation's second largest bank, denied speculation it was suffering from large losses on gold-linked derivatives. Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have dangerous exposure to gold derivatives. "It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of gold.

Murphy said central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running about 14,000 tons. "Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you have a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he said. See: Morgan weakest among financial stocks.

What do ordinary folks say about all this? "At some point," said Paul Collins, a Monmouth Beach, N.J., investor, "people are going to lose confidence in everything but gold."
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 09:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 88985)
Thank You BOTH Sir Albatros and Sir Barnaclebob !!!
<;-)
--
AND you take care there Sir Albatros !!! FLY HIGH !!!
"Chok Dee"
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 10:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 88986)
WOWSERS -- The PAPER has been flying in the COMEX Gold Pit
LOTS of yelling and screaming in the Gold Pit today !
A few tears too !!
<;-)
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
RobotGuy
(11/07/2002; 10:17:52 MDT - Msg ID: 88987)
Naysayer - - - Perma Bear - - - Contrarian - - - GoldBug
Have I always been a naysayer/perma bear? Of course not! I love technology, and advancements in technology. Exciting things happen, creative and useful products are developed, and the thought of war is practically non-existant during times when the economy works like a well oiled machine. Manufacturing is my gig, I get a strong sense of when the market is about to take off through job opportunities and the wage offer, word of mouth from various industries on their production and average working week hours etc. I love it when the economy is running well, and production lines can't run fast enough. I would like to consider myself a somewhat capable individual with a little sense of surroundings. I am not the close-minded type individual that goldbugs are often dubbed. Tunnel visioned, doomsday saying, perma bear blah blah blah. Why is such a precious metal surrounded by such negativity? Gold is a magnificent industrial material, it poses no toxic threats, has been used for jewellery and trade for eons,.. not to mention it's nice to look at, and it doesn't tarnish.
I know there are various reasons why there is so much negativity surrounding gold, we've all discussed them before, and the term bre-x still hasn't faded into history.

I'm just getting sick of it all I guess. I hate when people do what other people do just because, trends, lemmings, it's all crap. Individuality is lost in our society, perhaps it's a result of subliminal societal programming.

Despite being told many times by many individuals to "cut my hair", this professional individual goldbug is a long hair. I am not rebelling against society, or trying to change the world, I simply like my hair long, and I believe as individuals we should do the things we like (providing you don't cause harm to others) and not follow the trodden path of sheep. I am not an overly eccentric individual, but I am an individual.

For those of you who speak publicly against goldbugs perhaps you should get to know one before you begin appending labels.

BAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

Thank-you.
Zhisheng
(11/07/2002; 10:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 88988)
Dollar Index.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThe dollar index has broken below 105.
Belgian
(11/07/2002; 10:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 88989)
Carry Trade : US$ (1,25%) >>> euro (3%)
The perpetual US trade deficit or in other words, more and more printed dollar-confetti, sended around the world, in exchange for real goods and services...shall be exchanged for another currency > the euro !? The dollar/euro exchange rate is telling us that this is happening.
The euro and Gold, allies/budies, are giving the dollar-holders the opportunity to leave the sinking ship. That's what a currency war is all about !
A low POG is an invitation to chose for Gold as dollar-alternative. At one particular moment, this very cheap alternative will become very expensive and so will the euro vis � vis the US$, regardless of economic realities.
Where Euroland's economic ambitions are very different of nature than the dollar's ones.

After a period of massive dollar-debt-repudiation and bankruptcies, there will only be HYPERINFLATION !
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 10:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 88990)
Belgian (11/07/02; 10:37:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 88989)
WOWSERS Sir Belgian -- Could you not have added some SUGAR to that ? J6P is still smelling the ROSES !! AND, TRUE FACTS like those may not be understood by all the Sheeple at this point in time !
BUT THANKS !
<;-)
CoBra(too)
(11/07/2002; 10:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 88991)
Here's some more on JPM - CBS reporting from N.O.
@ Blackjack - Only play the game in North-Central Nevada - places like Winnemucca (where the Q.M. sailed the Humboldt) or Lovelock, or even Elko ... made and lost fortunes there, though mostly on gold explorers and will make it back in specie...not gam(bl)ing!
BTW - the annual deficit between new production (2.500t)and scrap (5-600t) and new demand is estimated to be somewhere between 500 to 1.500t for the last few years.

For how long can the CB's stand ready to sell their diminishing gold piles, Sir Allan? The failure of the historical gold pools have, again historically led to the greatest gold booms - ever. ... The jig is up, is it?


NEW YORK -- J.P. Morgan Chase shares came under selling
pressure Thursday, despite a denial by the nation's second-largest bank that it had suffered large losses on gold derivatives.

"The rumors circulating today are false and
irresponsible," a J.P. Morgan Chase spokesman said.

J.P. Morgan Chase's shares recently traded at $20.86,
down $1.20, for a drop of 5.4 percent.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said
the derivatives loss talk made the rounds before the
opening of trading, but he generally dismissed them,
noting that the entire financial sector was struggling
Thursday and that the cloud of a civil lawsuit was also
hanging over the Dow Jones Industrials component.

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission had notified Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase that it recommended filing civil
securities-fraud charges against the two firms over the
way they allocated IPO shares.

Against this backdrop, the Philadelphia Bank Index shed
1.8 percent. The Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index also retreated to the tune of 1.8 percent.

Morgan gold rumor rides again

Rumors of derivatives losses at J.P. Morgan Chase have sporadically appeared in the market over the last 18 months, particularly with respect to gold.

Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy,
attending the New Orleans Investment Conference Wednesday,
said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have potentially dangerous exposure to gold derivatives.

"It is only a matter of time before they explode and
the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work
together to depress the price of the precious metal.

Murphy said central banks' gold loans and swaps amount
to about 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons, and
a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running
at about 14,000 tons.

"Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and
you a gold price explosion that is just waiting to
happen," he asserted.

U.S. banks and their customers continued to pour money
into derivatives in the second quarter, as the total
value of the specialized contracts passed $50 trillion.

The second-quarter data are the most recent available
from the Comptroller of the Currency, which is
responsible for monitoring derivatives.

The banks with the largest derivative positions were
J.P. Morgan Chase, with $25.9 trillion, up from $23.5
trillion in the first quarter; Bank of America, with $10.3 trillion, compared to $9.8 trillion last quarter; and
Citibank, the Citigroup subsidiary with $7.4 trillion,
versus $6.7 trillion in the first quarter.

Equity, commodity, and other contracts jumped $85
billion, to $1.1 trillion during the second quarter.

Bank of America's shares lost $1.69, or 2.4 percent, to
$68.40, while Citigroup dropped 79 cents to $37.07.

-END- and amen -cb2

Zhisheng
(11/07/2002; 11:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 88992)
SUGAR
Gandalf the White msg#: 88990What sugar? I can't seem to find any. Besides it's bad for the health.
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 12:18:02 MDT - Msg ID: 88993)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
The GC2Z POG Settlement Guessing CONTEST !!SEVENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 11:10 Denver time 11/07/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - 0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - 0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3

(looks as if Sir Basil is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 ?*? nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)
===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be some "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/07/2002; 12:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 88994)
Give the Gift of Gold -- avoid jewelry store mark-ups
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlMarie (ext.106) can offer excellent advice and assistance on these items, and help keep you out of the crowded stores this holiday season!
MO VER MEG
(11/07/2002; 12:48:20 MDT - Msg ID: 88995)
Silver Statue of Liberty - What a Lady!
I ran across a cool, two foot tall silver replica of the Statue of Liberty (supposedly one of one hundred). It is one thousand ounces of .999 silver. Does anyone know the story on it?

MOVERMEG
GratefulForGold
(11/07/2002; 14:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 88996)
CoBra(too) #88981 & 88991 - JPM

Hey, CoBra, do you have any idea where the JPM - gold derivatives "news" story was initiated? Since it's been around for so long, I've been wondering who gave the signal to put it in the media. Do you think it came from a reporter covering the New Orleans Conference?

The big boys couldn't be removing support from JPM (after making sure their personal profits/wealth were covered) and letting it tank, could they?

Interesting. JPM just seems to have garnered too much negativity on too many fronts for them to do a big bail out.

I say, they can't write TV shows more entertaining than this! Unfortunately, this isn't fantasy, it's reality that affects the world. Sigh.
R Powell
(11/07/2002; 14:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 88997)
Belgian
You stated,
"After a period of massive dollar-debt-repudiation and bankruptcies, there will be HYPERINFLATION."

I tend to agree and dug through my papers to find an old article by White about the return of all those exported dollars. I believe it's call "Return of Bigfloat" and I also think it's here, perhaps in the Guilded Archives.

May I ask for your opinion or guess on a time frame? I see price inflation already in some tangible sectors and still some deflation in others, mostly paper holdings but, with yesterday's Fed. rate cut a done deal, how long do you think before foreign held U.S. dollars start returning to their birthland? Will these dollars be exchanged among non-U.S. holders still and remain uncollected debt or will the world try to unload them if the currency exchange rate of the U.S.$ starts dropping severely?? Mostly, any opinion to how long such a process might take?
Thanks
Rich
Waverider
(11/07/2002; 14:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 88998)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlPhew....made it through to the end of todays most excellent and thorough DMR!
a nation of one
(11/07/2002; 14:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 88999)
$$$$$ 321.40 $$$$$

Buying gold today is like buying gold at 35 per ounce in the late 1960's in that there is great potential for advancement in price. The price has been too low too long. Inflationary pressures have been building and have not yet been released or realized. Also, the majority of the public are unaware of the potential. Therefore it is much the same. We are presently in the very early stages of a long-term bull market in gold, and this one, like the previous one, is recognized only by a few. That's us, fellows. In coming years we will look back on this and it is likely that we will have real reason to congratulate ourselves and each other. I chose 321.40, instead of say, 327.10, because I think a gradual move upward is both more reasonable to expect, and more indicative of strength, volatility being an indicator not of value but of contoversy. Also, if I say that it can't possibly go to 327.10 by Tuesday, for some reason I feel that it will be more likely to do so.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/07/2002; 14:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 89000)
The Great Money Giveaway supplants the "Strong Dollar Policy"
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html

Swiss gold francs
Gold Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for a while.

While the Administration's Treasury Department has fallen mum on the issue, the latest target rate cut (to 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with an institution-saving discount rate at 0.75%!) tells the score loud and clear. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world -- these are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

a nation of one
(11/07/2002; 15:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 89001)
the 'fix'

I might be alone in this, but one thing I would like to see is a clear description of what is meant when it is said that the price of gold 'was fixed' at some price.
R Powell
(11/07/2002; 15:22:46 MDT - Msg ID: 89002)
Wrong door
Help! I tried finding the Blademan's daily report by clicking on the Daily Market Report, the Afternoon Gold Report and Waverider's posted link. All three took me to the November 5th report.
It's like the old Clue game where the corner rooms had a secret passage to the opposite corner room only I can't find the right passage to today.
I remember an old Kingston Trio song about a man trying to get a train to the town of Morrow but the ticket man tells him he's too late,
"If you had gone to Morrow yesterday
now, don't you see.
You could have gone to Morrow
and been back today at 3.
Where's the secret passage?
Rich
Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 15:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 89003)
USD Sinks and Gold Rises

Like cream rising to the top, gold is moving higher in after hours. Notice that the USD sank below the critical 105 support level. We fall below 104.87 and it could get "interesting". I see that Silver is pulling right along with gold as well. There was a rumor floating about earlier today that due to lowered gold and base metal production, the by-product Silver stocks are depleting at a more rapid rate than anticipated. Some pointed to the seemingly large amount of Silver in storage at the COMEX, however, almost all that is registered - in other words claimed and "untouchable". Meanwhile, it appears that physical off take for Gold has actually been increasing in parts of Central Asia even after the all important Diwali Festival. But I covered that in the DMR. The outlook for PMs have dramatically improved over the last 48 hours and it appears that there may be no turning back. The fundamentals for the equities and bond markets are viewed as "grim" at best. Hang onto your undershorts because it looks like we may be in for a sustained rise in PMs.

- Black Blade
TownCrier
(11/07/2002; 15:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 89004)
Dollar status on borrowed time
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/markets_forex_dollar_1.htmlNEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Slowing economic growth, one-party government, lending rates at four decade lows. If you ask currency market experts, the opposing strands make a knot of Gordian difficulty that threatens to bind the dollar.

"What you've got is monetary and fiscal policy both in a very stimulative mode," said Lara Rhame, U.S. economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

The dollar's predicament was borne out even further on Thursday, when the European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rates unchanged -- emphasizing a hefty interest-rate differential.

Now that the differential has widened anew, Garvey says a debate is currently underway that questions whether the ECB is the more prudent central bank -- however parochial its emphasis on inflation may seem to some.

"Back in the start of the easing cycle, a lot of people argued that the Fed was being more proactive and the dollar rallied," he said. "Now you're seeing the opposite, as people are thinking the ECB has run the more prudent, responsible policy for the last several years."

-------(full article at url)------

If the U.S. dollar slips from its throne as international king of reserves, the fall could be swift and hard and its purchasing power will vanish in the blink of an eye.

Protect your wealth through gold ownership.

R.
Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 15:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 89005)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Roger Conrad (Utility Forecaster):

With the United Nations about to give the U.S. the ability to act alone against Iraq, there's no question that it's just a matter of time before Saddam Hussein is removed from power. The REAL question is how will Saddam's reaction to his impending destruction impact world energy prices? Saddam will do ANYTHING to prevent the U.S. from getting not only Iraq's oil, but the oil OF THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST as well! If he contaminates the oil fields of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar with "dirty" bombs, crude prices will SKYROCKET to $100 a barrel and stay there, triggering economic chaos. There simply WON'T be enough energy to go around!

Black Blade: Possible scenario but just the act of war alone will kick energy costs higher and that is exactly what pushed the global economy into recession as with every postwar recession. Now geopolitical tensions have again come to the forefront with the recent US elections and the UN resolution vote expected to easily pass. Note that Roger Conrad recently was interviewed on Jim Puplava's radio program. He and Stephen Leeb (Personal Finance Newsletter) have co-authored several articles on the looming energy crisis, and Leeb is somewhat of a closet goldbug too. Conrad may be a bit alarmist I think, but then you just never know. There are a lot of potential economic landmines about.

mas
(11/07/2002; 15:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89006)
Blackjack 88980
Couldn't say it any better than Sir Belgian's post 88989. Thank you.
Waverider
(11/07/2002; 15:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 89007)
Sir Rich Powell
Here's the golden key....you need to delete your temporary internet files...go to tools on your toolbar, go to internet options...go to temoporary internet files and click on delete files, then to history and clear history, and okay, okay? For some reason I need to do this every few days on both of my computers - the DMR is the only link which I seem to have trouble with for updating. Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 15:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 89008)
Re: R. Powell - DMR

I have occasionally had the same problem. Sometimes hitting the "refresh" button works and if the computer has been on for a long time it may just be that it is easier to logoff - shutdown, then restart and clear off temp files by going into "My Computer" on your desk top, go to file, click properties, then hit clean disk to remove temp files in the cache. Reenter the USAGOLD site and that should work. I haven't had this problem for quite a while, but now I regularly shutdown and clear temp files when I restart. It also helps to speed up surfing the net too. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, maybe Randy has a few ideas as he is the Whizz Kid here when it comes to working with this site.
Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 15:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 89009)
Re: R. Powell

I see that Waverider does something similar (though a slightly different approach). I am assuming that you are using a PC too. My approach is a little more cumbersome so you may try Waverider's method first. Cheers!

- Black Blade
miner49er
(11/07/2002; 16:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 89010)
R Powell @ DMR probs...
Hi Rich,

Your browser may be set to not automatically check for newer versions of a page when you revisit a site.

To overcome this, you can force a full refresh of the page with either of the two big name browsers by doing a Shift-Refresh (hold down the shift key while clicking the refresh button on your browser's tool bar).

This will fetch a new page from USAGold's server. Otherwise your browser seems to be reusing what it has in cache.

Let us know if that helps...

Rgds,
miner

Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 16:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 89011)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Dan Denning (Strategic Investment):

According to U.S.A. Today, the average money market fund is yielding just 1.21%. Money funds closely track the federal funds rate - the one Alan Greenspan has lowered 12 times to its current 40-year low. The article continues, arguing that the latest cut "could force funds with high expenses and low returns out of business. IMoneyNet says 34 have yields of 0.25% or less. They might have to slash expenses to avoid having their share prices fall below $1 - 'breaking the buck,' in industry terms."

- If a fund "breaks the buck", it means that the yield becomes negative...and an investor actually gets back less than a dollar for every dollar he puts in. Last time we checked, this was not the goal of investing. And that's why a fund that breaks the buck is not long for this earth. Jeff Tjornehoj, a research analyst at Lipper, says only once in the 31-year history of money market funds has a fund gone into forced liquidation after "breaking the buck."

- Even so, investors who've seen the yield on their money market funds fall to Japan-like levels can't be too relieved. Forget about making a buck. How about hanging on to the one you have? That's getting harder and harder, what with Chairman Greenspan's determination to stimulate lending and spending by driving down the yield on liquid savings instruments.


Black Blade: I laugh because CNBC's Larry Kudlow is fond of saying that "America is not Japan!". Speaking of CNBC, I have stopped watching this infomercial for a couple of weeks and now tune in to a live web feed (WebFN - yeah television on the internet � go figure), out of Chicago that covers the stock, bond and commodities markets. I'll see how long that lasts. I have done the same with Bloomberg too. At least they don't tout stocks and the "recovering economy" with professional Pied Pipers and Trolls in a day long infomercial. I also log on to a radio station out of Denver in the morning (the Zone) on occasion. I guess what I am saying is that I just needed to "wean" myself from the absurdities of the daily salesmen paraded before the cameras to push stocks in order to generate business for the investment banks and brokerages. I can only stand to look at so many "pigs with bright red lipstick".

- Off to the gym!!!
Tevye
(11/07/2002; 16:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 89012)
$$$$ 321.0 $$$$
On the one hand, Yes, the price of gold today is economically similar to the price of gold in the '60's at $35/oz. On the other hand, the ability to own gold is so much easier now, not to mention legal for Americans, that No, there is no comparision. On the other hand, when my good friend Lazar Wolf finally did get married in the early 70's in America, he bought 2 gold rings, each 1oz of gold, to get around the american ownership issue. Actually, thats on his hand. If I were a rich man I could have done the same.

Gold. Its Tradition. ( and cheap at $$$$ 321.0 $$$$ )
Tevye
Paper Avalanche
(11/07/2002; 16:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 89013)
@ BB - Timing of creation of MM funds
from your most recent link I lifted the following:

"only once in the 31-year history of money market funds"

I was not aware that MM funds have only been around for 31 years. Is it any coincidence that MM funds came into being the same year that the US defaulted on the Bretton Woods Agreement?

The paper avalanche is indeed upon us.

I would encourage all to do their holiday shopping with the fine folks at CPM and possibly provide your loved ones with a glimmer of financial security in the form of a holiday gift.

Take care.

PA
TownCrier
(11/07/2002; 16:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 89014)
Wherein will any dollar strength possibly be found?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/markets_bonds_outlook_1.htmlNEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) -
Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse First Boston said if future economic data come in weak and if the stock market falters and turns lower again, then yields could go lower and the Fed will be compelled to ease again.

"We take issue with (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan when he says that everything is going to be fine," said Konstam. "I'd be concerned about bigger challenges. All you need is bad economic data plus the stock market going down and you've got big problems."

--------(full text at url)-----

Through personal gold ownership these "big problems" can be chased from your own doorstep.

Centennial has what you need. Give them a call.

R.
CoBra(too)
(11/07/2002; 16:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 89015)
GfG - Re JPM
I've first seen the rumors on Reuters today - then it was picked up across the "globe".

Where does it originate - well, your guess is as good as mine. I feel the horrendous negative quarter together with the SEC probe and law suits in Dec. (insurance vs Enron games and laddering IPO's) and again rising notional derivative risk may have started the rumor mongering again.

... Also the Deutsche Bank bid for JPM a few years ago comes to mind, where Chase came in unexpectedly and carved out a deal in a couple of hours ... all very strange ...

Guess, we'll only know in retrospective for sure, though an entity of barely 25 billion in assets - including any goodwill anyone wants to concede - taking on trillions of derivative bets, while their credit rating is continously downgraded - warrants some questions.

Other rumors are that JPM has been hedonizing (if that's a word) losses of substance - by far outstripping their market cap. and not only their capital - which may see the light of the day.

The governments bank? ... too big to fail - just watch 'em bail ...

Being a rather conservative guy - while taking on some speculative investments - I've bought put options on the stock for some time ... and again!

Hoping to make some $$ in time to convert to more physical - the substance these guys seem to be short in a major way - aye cb2
TownCrier
(11/07/2002; 16:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 89016)
R Powell and the DMR
I see you've already received good guidance to overcome that odd glitch.

Another workaround that may be either easier or more to your liking is to use the new email-to-a-friend feature to have the current report emailed to yourself. I've tried to code that email page in such a manner to avoid these caching problems that a small number of people have had.

I hope it works. You'll find the necessary link at the base of the report text.

R.
TownCrier
(11/07/2002; 17:21:27 MDT - Msg ID: 89017)
a nation of one: the fix
Common referrences to the price of gold being "fixed" are almost invariably about the twice-a-day public announcements of the single clearing price for gold arrived at during the 10:30am and 3:00pm gatherings of five bullion banks in London.

In a very loose way, this process in gold is akin to the fed funds market, except that it is a spot price which represents the outcome "price of gold" in the London fix whereas it is an interest rate that represents the outcome "price of dollars" in New York fed funds.

Granted, it's not a perfect parallel, but I have found it to be immensely helpful in conveying this material to others who are more familiar with dollar banking than bullion banking.

R.
R Powell
(11/07/2002; 18:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 89018)
Thanks
Waverider, Black Blade, miner49er, and Randy.
I've printed out your info for future computer tuning and cleaning but, for now, used the easy e-mail solution as my own gray matter computer is also not functioning properly. Easy fix, it needs sleep.
Thank you, all. Good night.
Rich
Paper Avalanche
(11/07/2002; 18:13:57 MDT - Msg ID: 89019)
And so it begins
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=350002My guess is that the war begins before thanksgiving. I am giving thanks that I am now too old to be drafted, because if this things drags out the draft will be needed to find fresh bullet catchers.

PA
NTgeo
(11/07/2002; 18:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 89020)
$$$$322.50$$$$
Is the situation for gold today the same as what it was in the 1960's? I am not sure it is. Much of the world production came from South Africa then, nowadays production is more widely spread around the globe. Central Banks were generally buyers of gold then but many now seem to want to get rid of the yellow metal. The dollar looks like it is going to take a heavy fall and this is positive for gold as well as the falling worldwide production. I think that the gold price will go up but fear that the "powers that be" will have some horrible scheme to puncture its rise. I hope I am wrong!
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 18:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 89021)
@mas
My remark was the ECB would cut soon. The reason they did
not was to avoid looking like a knee jerk reaction to our Fed.
Most analysts feel the ECB should have cut and the Fed should
not have.

In the 1930s as the world economy shrank, nations tried to
export their unemployment by raising tariffs. Today raising
tariffs is not politically correct. So now they devalue their
currencies to get an economic advantage.

Japan has openly admitted to selling Yen and buying dollars
to keep the Yen weaker so as to prop up their export economy.

The European economy, is in just as bad a shape as ours if not worse. Germany, a big part of the EU is doing very badly.

The big difference is we have a huge trade deficit while the
EU has a small trade surplus. Germany also has a bad historical
memory from hyperinflation, so they are more cautious with
interest rates.

The ECB will see their exports fall as their currency strengthens.
They will come under great pressure to cut at the next
opportunity. As the Euro strengthens unemployment in Germany
will get worse.

I am not against the Euro. It should strengthen. As interest rates
are cut around the world, thats bullish for Gold and Silver.

The article I posted on the Bengalis buying gold was to point out that zero return in banks and falling stocks have prompted
people even in remote parts of the world to see Gold as a better
place to be rather than MM funds or stock markets.

If you think the ECB will not cut thats fine, I am not opposed
to a strong Euro.
mikal
(11/07/2002; 18:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 89022)
Gold
As interest rates are manipulated downwards again, gold benefits indirectly from the nudge to players called to action. Actions that they must take irregardless, just as central banks know the value of accumulating gold and do it openly or covertly as suits their purposes. War or war fears also work to either halt or trigger gold plays that must be taken irregardless. This is the inherent and natural state of the current bull market in gold.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(11/07/2002; 18:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 89023)
LET US GET ON WITH THE OIL GETTING, MR. PRESIDENT!!
Mr. Bush, the time has come to launch the offensive! We MUST get control of the IRAQ OIL! The economy will not last another year, half year, quarter year without it! EVERYBODY IS BROKE! We need that oil to gain back the advantage we have had for years and are now losing in this currency war. INTEREST RATES TO .5%! Got to have it to get out of this mire we are in! If we stay focused and get on with the business at hand, we can have control in two weeks maximum! We have the weaponry, technology, etc to get the job done now! LETS ROLL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 19:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 89024)
@mas
I forgot to mention that Berlin has an unemployment
rate of 17% and rising. Berlin (the city itself) is bankrupt
and asking for around 60 Billion Euros from the central
government as a bailout.

Another development to watch is political extremism.
Desperate times lead to desperate rulers with desperate
solutions. Turkey just elected an Islamist government.
Pakistan may soon have a Taliban supporter elected Prime
Minister. Lula in Brazil and the rest of LA looking to turn
to the hard left.

The people in many parts of the world are hungry and angry and turning against the political establishment that has been adopting US economic models.

Gold and Silver don't need much promoting now. I think the
handwriting on the wall will get easier for the public to see.
PMs are one of the few safe havens in the coming storm.

Cavan Man
(11/07/2002; 19:27:25 MDT - Msg ID: 89025)
No ECB or BOE Rate Cut????
You are witnesing a high stakes currency game under the worst of macroeconomic circumstances. The prize is the right of issuing the WRC; irredeemable script!
mas
(11/07/2002; 19:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 89026)
Blackjack
Yeap, can't agree with you more but like what was mentioned the stakes are high for the WRC. It's just possible that EU needs a little sobering up after the US induced boom. From where I'm looking I can see sky lines with empty shell buildings, the effects of 97/98. So yes I know about these things and their effects in the areas you talk about.
But we need to move on from where we were, so how do we go about building it all up again after this "crash"? Economic's or war? Easy choice for me to answer.
Got Gold?
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 20:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 89027)
More coverage of JPM and derivatives
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7A62450C%2D1234%2D47BE%2DBCBE%2D282D053C3007%7D&siteid=mktwNEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan Chase fell almost 7 percent Thursday, unable to shake early talk on Wall Street -- denied by the nation's second largest bank -- that it has suffered large gold-related derivatives losses.

J.P. Morgan Chase's (JPM: news, chart, profile) stock closed down $1.46, or 6.6 percent, at $20.40. Earlier, shares had traded as low as $20.01.

"The rumors circulating today are false and irresponsible," a spokesman for bank said Thursday morning.

Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said the derivatives-loss talk made the rounds before the opening of trading, but he generally dismissed them, noting that the entire financial sector was struggling Thursday and that the cloud of a civil lawsuit was also hanging over the Dow Industrials component.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal had reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission had notified Goldman Sachs (GS: news, chart, profile) and J.P. Morgan Chase that it recommended filing civil securities-fraud charges against the two over the way they allocated IPO shares.

Against this backdrop, the Philadelphia Bank Index ($BKX: news, chart, profile) shed 3.7 percent Thursday. The Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index ($XBD: news, chart, profile) also retreated to the tune of 3.6 percent.

Rumor rides again

Rumors of derivatives losses at J.P. Morgan Chase have sporadically appeared in the market over the last 18 months, particularly with respect to gold.

Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference on Thursday, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have potentially dangerous exposure to gold derivatives.

"It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of the precious metal. Read Thom Calandra's StockWatch for more on gold derivatives and the New Orleans conference.

Murphy said central banks' gold loans and swaps amount to about 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running at about 1,400 tons.

"Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you get a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he asserted.

U.S. banks and their customers continued to pour money into derivatives in the second quarter, as the total value of the specialized contracts passed $50 trillion.

The second-quarter data are the most recent available from the Comptroller of the Currency, which is responsible for monitoring derivatives. See the OCC report.

The banks with the largest derivative positions were J.P. Morgan Chase, with $25.9 trillion, up from $23.5 trillion in the first quarter; Bank of America (BAC: news, chart, profile), with $10.3 trillion, compared with $9.8 trillion last quarter; and Citibank, a Citigroup (C: news, chart, profile) subsidiary, with $7.4 trillion, up from $6.7 trillion in the first quarter.
goldquest
(11/07/2002; 21:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 89028)
Project Hammer
http://www.nexusmagazine.com/hammer1.htmlIt looks like GOLD might be important to a few others also!
Blackjack
(11/07/2002; 22:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 89029)
Saudization of Gold jobs
http://www.arabnews.com/print.asp?id=20208&ArY=2002&ArM=11&ArD=8JEDDAH, 8 November � Interior Minister Prince Naif, who is also chairman of the Manpower Council, has ordered the total Saudization of jobs in gold and jewelry shops from the beginning of next Hijrah year (March 4, 2003), Al-Madinah reported yesterday.

The shop owners have also been strictly instructed to implement 50 percent Saudization this year itself. The minister had ordered that 30 percent of jobs in the sector be Saudized last year, 50 percent this year and 100 percent by next year, but the authorities concerned complained to the prince about noncompliance by shops in most regions.

In order to end the complaint that it is difficult to find qualified Saudis to handle precious metals and stones, a group of Saudi businessmen have decided to open an institute to train youth in all skilled jobs related to the manufacture and sale of gold and jewelry, Al-Watan reported yesterday.

There are about 13,500 jobs available for Saudis in the jewelry sector, according to some studies. Non-Saudi workers, who earn SR450 million annually from the industry, hold most of the jobs. The new institute will facilitate the smooth replacement of expatriate workers with Saudis in line with the government decision to Saudize the sector.

Muhammed Azouz, a member of the gold and jewels committee at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry and director of the training project at the chamber, said that the World Gold Council had also expressed interest in the diploma courses to be conducted at the proposed institute.

The areas of training will cover trades such as sales of gold and jewels, specialized accounting of gold workshops, handling precious stones, designing, filling and inlaying, polishing and determining the standard of gold.

The cost of providing training to 13,500 Saudis will work out to more than SR282 million. When the training courses are completed Saudis will be fully qualified to replace 3,500 expatriates working in 1,100 shops and 10,000 skilled laborers working in 360 workshops in Jeddah alone.
_________________
Saudis going for da gold.
Yes young man, your future is in the Gold industry.
Get your diplomas while der hot.
Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 22:38:38 MDT - Msg ID: 89030)
Rate cut no balm for debt-laden consumers
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/business/4457715.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK - For all too many Americans struggling to dig out from debt, Wednesday's surprisingly big cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve may help very little, experts say. Personal bankruptcy rates are rising, job growth has stalled and consumer debt is at an all-time high. So it's unclear -- even after the Fed cut rates by an aggressive one-half percentage point -- whether the tapped-out consumers can do much more to keep the economy humming. "More and more Americans are living life styles they can't afford using borrowed money," said Steve Rhode, president of Myvesta, a financial crisis center in Rockville, Maryland. "It's not just credit cards -- it's homes too big for them to afford, cars too big for them to afford."


Black Blade: Yes, once again, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash several months worth of emergency cash for expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Obviously as the "Bone Pile" grows many find themselves buried under crushing debt, they will wish they had prepared ahead of time. Bankruptcy will no longer be an option as credit cards and some other debt obligations will soon no longer be wiped away by the courts. It looks to get very ugly. The economy is seriously bad shape and many will suffer as there is no way out � why do you think that Alan and the boys at the Fed sprang into action to slash interest rates as aggressively as they did? They suggest a "neutral" bias, but then they are in business to calm the fears of distraught investors. Be careful especially now � it's a jungle out there.

Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 23:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 89031)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

A Matter of Spin & Perception

The markets move on perception, and perception is influenced by how the news is presented. One day bad earnings can drive down markets; while the next day similar bad earnings can trigger a rally. In October Intel's disappointing numbers triggered a market selloff. The very next day IBM's numbers triggered a market rally. IBM's earnings were down 18% and they mentioned in their footnotes that they would need to make a $1.5 billion contribution to their pension plan. The news coming from IBM was consistent with most of the news coming out of the tech sector. Sales are sluggish and there has been no significant pickup in demand. Companies that are making a profit are doing so mainly through cost cutting. They are slashing costs by trimming back payroll. The point to understand is that there has been no news that would have indicated the economy or profit picture has changed. In fact, the economic situation has actually worsened. Why the market rallied on IBM and sold off on Intel is all part of how the news is spun and perceived.

However, at the moment Wall Street isn't selling things. Most firms abandoned their commodities trading departments years ago. Commodities have been in a bear market for decades, so most firms don't talk about it. When was the last time your broker called you up and talked about oil, natural gas, gold, silver, cocoa, coffee, and grains? It is unlikely you have received that call. Analysts and anchors pay very little attention to the fact that the AMEX Gold Index is up over 88% this year. You don't hear much about the fact that the CRB Index is up close to 19% this year, or that oil and natural gas is up over 25%. Instead, all you hear is that IBM beat estimates and that most companies beat estimates, which is always the way it plays out each quarter. You don't get real news that is helpful for investing; you are told how the market has bottomed or why stocks are cheap.

Black Blade: A major reason I am laying off of CNBC for a while. I will just read or listen to the facts without the "spin" as I don't need the Pied Pipers and Trolls to feed me a daylong infomercial. I find it quite amusing that the individual investor has not been in the market � in fact Trim Tabs reports consistent weekly withdrawals from mutual funds and declining participation in 401K's. I see that the bulk of trading is in large "block trades" which indicates that it is mostly just the institutional players who are left in the game. It appears that they are playing against each other while the individual investor is content to just sit this one out (or jump into the real estate bubble). Heck, I even notice that insiders are bailing out at nearly a 2 to 1 rate. If the insiders want out of their own companies stocks why the hell should anyone else want in? I watch this Wall Street game play out with occasional "bear market rallies" (or as I prefer "suckers rallies" and "dead cat bounces"). There is simply no substance underneath all the fluff. I find it equally amazing that hard assets like precious metals are selling at such a bargain under these circumstances. I suspect that we could be seeing just the first stirrings of a precious metals market rally that will catch shorts flat-footed, crush hedgers, send some derivatives players with hat in hand to regulatory agencies and begging for government bailouts (can you say Randolph and Mortimer Duke? I knew you could). Should be fun!

Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 23:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 89032)
A Dissenting View - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20021107-thu.html#anchor0
Snippit:

Policy makers at the Federal Reserve did the right thing with their seemingly aggressive monetary easing on 6 November. I applaud them for that. It is impossible to fight deflation with small incremental moves. However, there's far more to the Fed's statement than meets the eye. It did not convey a full sense of the risks now bearing down on the US economy. Nor, contrary to widespread interpretation, did it offer any guarantees that the medicine will work.

On the surface, an aggressive 50-bp rate cut seems just what the doctor ordered. Never mind that the previous 11 moves totaling 475 bp of rate cuts haven't worked their charm. Most believe that this one is bound to make a difference. The Fed is doing everything in its power to deepen such conviction. By stating that it has shifted to a balanced policy bias, the central bank is sending a message that this easing was the last one for this cycle. According to this logic, the only thing left now is to wait out the lags.

I beg to differ. For me, the story is all about deflation, and what the central bank must to do to prevent such an outcome. In that context, I find it hard to take confidence in a now neutral policy bias. This aspect of the Fed's latest action was pure spin. Make no mistake, an aggressive 50-bp move is a signal of heightened alert. Yet, had the monetary authorities not qualified this action with a neutral bias, I believe there would have been full-scale panic in the financial markets. The Fed would have been portrayed as being in a state of high anxiety over mounting deflationary perils. That's the last message it wanted to send. Instead, the central bank is attempting to convince the markets that all is under control.

The risk is the Fed is wrong. That's because it may already be too late to arrest the gathering forces of deflation.


Black Blade: I have to applaud Stephen Roach's clarity on his position. He makes a good case. The Fed is walking a tightrope � one miscue or overshooting their target could conceivably send the economy over the edge into deflation (see Japan). On the other hand if the Fed panics as we approach the abyss and they fire up the presses all out 24/7, we could easily swing the other direction into an inflationary environment (though I suspect Stagflationary 1970's style could be more likely). Definitely a good article worth reading for another viewpoint not considered by the establishment on Wall Street. No matter, Gold and Silver portfolio insurance is in order for either possible outcome.

Black Blade
(11/07/2002; 23:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89033)
Rate cut puts many savers in tough spot
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/rates/2002-11-06-saving-rates_x.htm
Snippit:

The Federal Reserve's half-point rate cut Wednesday dealt a blow to savers already reeling from the lowest interest rates in 41 years. "It's gone from bad to worse for conservative investors," says Greg McBride, a financial analyst at Bankrate.com. It's harder and harder to find a safe, liquid place to put cash that will stay ahead of inflation. The national average yield for FDIC-insured money market accounts is 0.95%, McBride says. The latest Fed rate cut will cause that to fall even more � perhaps to 0.75%, he says.


Black Blade: Can you say "Japan"? I knew you could.

Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 23:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 89034)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !EIGHTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 00:10 Denver time 11/08/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - 0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - 0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3

(looks as if Sir Basil is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012

$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 ?*? nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)
===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be a few "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(11/07/2002; 23:53:24 MDT - Msg ID: 89035)
OOPS -- better head off to bed as I can't read a clock now !
That UPDATE was about 20 minutes EARLY !
<;-)
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 00:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 89036)
Natural gas prices fall prior to seasonal pull from storage
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=160866
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Nov. 7 -- Natural gas futures prices dipped again Wednesday just ahead of a government report Thursday of the first withdrawal of gas supplies from US underground storage for this winter season. The US Energy Information Administration said 27 bcf of gas was withdrawn from US underground storage last week, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Measured by heating-degree days, US weather last week generally was 28% colder than the previous week, 60% colder than a year ago, and 30% colder than the 10-year average.

Black Blade: Looks like a colder than normal start to the winter heating season. Colder weather and declining production have resulted in earlier than usual natural gas withdrawals from storage. NatGas decline rates are accelerating just as expected and drill rig counts are still at depressed levels. We could be looking at another developing "energy crisis" in coming months. That will hit the weakened economy like a ton of bricks!

Also, the NatGas storage chart at the following link:

http://highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm
Spartacus
(11/08/2002; 00:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 89037)
The Fed's Prescription for Disaster
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1087
An Interview with Frank Shostak

Mises.org: The Fed has lowered the interest rate, again, and it seems that the whole world is celebrating.

Frank Shostak: Actually, it is a disastrous move, so far as I'm concerned. Last year, the Fed cut interest rates 11 times. Why anyone should believe the 12th is the charm is beyond me. From the end of last year until now, the federal funds rate was 1.75 percent, and now we have a very aggressive lowering by half a percent to 1.25 percent.

This indicates desperation. It shows that the Fed believes the economy is doing poorly, more poorly than is usually reported, but that they have no idea why or what to do about it. --
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 00:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 89038)
BP calls on policymakers to endorse Alaska pipeline
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Trasp&ARTICLE_ID=160871

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, DC, Nov. 7 -- The fate of a sweeping US energy reform bill remains uncertain, but BP PLC officials said Wednesday that Congress sooner than later needs to consider legislation that encourages construction of an Alaska natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Lower 48 states. "Energy legislation is essential now to enable the gas to flow in 10 years," BP official David Welch said at a Washington briefing. Welch is overseeing BP's potential investment in the massive project, with an estimated construction cost of $20 billion. He said Alaska gas is needed since traditional supplies cannot keep pace with US demand. "We expect existing production areas will struggle just to maintain current supply," Welch said. "All North American sources of gas plus new LNG imports are needed to meet demand." Without a new gas supply, a gap of 15 bcfd (6 tcf/year) or more is likely within 10 years, the company said.


Black Blade: Even Alaska cannot keep up with increasing demand. However, natural gas in the lower 48 are not being developed now. Also it appears that a taxpayer subsidized pipeline is the wrong way to approach this project. The price of NG will naturally rise anyway as more NG fired power plants are built and the environmental restrictions require the closure of older coal and oil fired power plants. Regardless, the costs of energy will go in only one direction � higher!

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 00:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 89039)
Text of the New US Draft Resolution
http://www.gas.com/p/e3/992d18dfd12b.html?id=fd9f3a
The U.S. draft resolution on Iraq which was cosponsored by Britain and officially submitted to the Security Council Wednesday. The draft can be found at the link above.

Black Blade: For anyone interested, the resolution spells out the demands set by the US that Iraq submit to the conditions of their surrender as well as new demands.

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 00:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 89040)
Iraq Gov't Media Denounce U.S. Draft
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&ncid=736&e=2&u=/ap/20021107/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_un
Snippit:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq's government-controlled media on Thursday denounced the latest U.S. draft resolution on weapons inspections as a pretext for war against Baghdad and urged the U.N. Security Council not to bow to American demands.

Black Blade: What? I'm shocked - shocked I tell ya! I think Saddam just has no sense of humor.

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 00:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 89041)
Bali Bomb Suspect Confesses
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,69378,00.html
Snippit:

In the first major break in the inquiry into the Bali nightclub bombings, Indonesian officials said that a suspect has admitted to taking part in the Bali bombing and led police to a house where residue of the explosives were recovered. Police believe six to 10 people were involved in the attack on a nightclub district frequented by foreigners that killed nearly 200 people, and that there were signs of international involvement. "We have their names already," he said in Manila. "We know their identities. What the police are doing now is searching throughout the country. Gen. Da'i Bachtiar, the national police commander, said Thursday that the suspect, an Indonesian man identified only as Amrozi, owned the L300 Mitsubishi minivan laden with at least 110 pounds of explosives that blew up outside a packed nightclub on Bali. "Amrozi was one of the main perpetrators in the Bali bombing," Bachtiar told a news conference Thursday, adding that Amrozi was part of a group that planned and carried out the attack.


Black Blade: So far no evidence of Indonesian military involvement, though there are apparently links to radical Islamists.

Blackjack
(11/08/2002; 00:59:36 MDT - Msg ID: 89042)
Re: Energy
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2002110800312r4783&SA=Latest%20NewsLONDON (Dow Jones)--Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
representatives this week sent clear signals that the producer group will hold
crude oil output targets steady well into 2003, and continue to manage prices by
unofficially adjusting production.
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 01:37:59 MDT - Msg ID: 89043)
Gold Soars - USD Crumbles!!!

As I said earlier, once the USD falls through the 104.87 support level, all hell could break loose. Noice that the POG is surging higher as US dollar support collapses. "Check and Mate"

- Black Blade
Belgian
(11/08/2002; 01:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 89044)
US-$
@ Rich : The hart of the matter is that we do not realize how much of this dollar-stuff has been distributed around the globe in the past 30 YEARS ! NOT ONE SINGLE DOLLAR WILL RETURN BACK TO WHERE IT ORIGINALLY CAME FROM !
Why would/should the US accept any of the, confetti it has been producing all those decades !? There's not such thing as "return to sender" ! Adress unknown and Alice doesn't live here anymore.

The whole globe has been dollarized, the american way (americanism). It was a perfect job, made possible, thanks to the two WWs, raging in the old European continent AND the perfect "divide and rule" strategy in the ME-cheap-oil, deserts.

But what's next :

Euroland is on its feeth and the ME is waking up ! The dollarization has run its course. In the very nearby future, the globe doesn't prefer to trade "on the dollar" anymore ! This process is definitely on its rails and the past global dollarization must be unwinded, by preference peacefully and without unnecessary shocks, if possible.

Imvho, Rich, there is no specific timing in such a process. There are only options within unpredictable time frames.
When and to what extend is it opportune to push the dollar back and let it perisch/witter ? It is that specific, non-confrontational, European way, of doing things. The old continent, supervising the young an violent stallions.

But let there be no doubt anymore on the main option of pushing the US$ back to where it belongs and decrease its "importance", drastically. The alternatives are in place : Gold, the euro, within the oil concept as a transitional period before reaching a more healthy global "balance".

The US$, knew this fate/destiny, would happen one day. But can't attack Euroland and its euro, frontally. Therefore, the dollar has chosen the cheap oil as the weakest and most important dollar-supporting, tangible. Please note that Sharon wanted Iran, included in the oil-occupation/confiscation ! Waw, what an ambitious suggestion.

My amateuristic conclusion is that those massive dollar-piles, growing at a faster and faster pace (trade-deficit), floating all over this globe, will slowly be replaced at convenient times quantities and places. Dollar-debts will be rolled over less and less and exchanged for its alternatifs. The dollar currency will gradually be "phased out". Geopolitical events and possible economical shocks (or lack of) will determine how fast and deep this will take place. There is no crystal ball for this kind of predictions. As there was no timing for the fall of the Berlin wall and the implosion of the communist empire (?) without any revolution or one shot fired.

Note that the UK left its IRs, unchanged, ALSO !!! In wich camp do you think they want to be ? The coming events (and aftermath) in the ME will be a possible catalysator on global relations. It remains a very difficult exercise in political balancing, the more, no one wants to push the US as a western ally. It is only the dollar-imperialism that went too far and omnipotent.

I, personally don't care about "timing". I do prefer to understand the options and checking on their implementations. More precisely how the dollar and the euro evolve (behave) vis � vis Gold. This behavior must tell us if the currency war is "THE" war !? The POO final destiny is being a tool for harmonic balance for a more prosperous and peaceful globe. If Bush gets re-elected, things will evolve more rapidly. But all this depends on what happens in the ME.

Americans do think in straith lines and not in spirals. A very difficult, combination/antagonism, for keeping peace and prosperity going. Let us all hope, suffering, will be limited to the absolute minimum. Life is great and well worth living.
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 02:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 89045)
A most respectable call for $3,000 gold
http://www.mips1.net/mgno.nsf/UNID/DMKY-5FNQJF?OpenDocument
Snippit:

NEW ORLEANS -- Investment newsletter guru Richard Russell has for some time been urging his subscribers to accumulate gold stocks and the metal itself as an antidote to a sorrowful recuperation from the speculative bubble of the late 1990s. The bull market that he says ran from 1974 to 2000 was unprecedented, and he believes the consequences will be just as unprecedented. The keynote speaker at this year's New Orleans Investment Conference, it was not just another gold bug message. Russell's reputation was minted through uncannily accurate trend spotting that made his followers truly wealthy, which is why the audience swelled to hear him. He is warning average investors to quit the market altogether unless they have really good advice; which will not come from Wall Street. "Wall Street is there to distribute stock to raise capital. They are worried about their commissions, not their clients."

Black Blade: Interesting article. $3000 gold sounds good, but that may be because the dollar is crumbling and gold will be your primary insurance policy against economic calamity. Hang on for the ride!

BTW, it appears that some big hitters are coming out of the woodwork to attempt to put a cap on the rising POG tonight. Looks like a battle is ensuing here. The POG was poised to rattle a lot of cages and the fear factor must have jumped a few notches and probably a few late night phone calls were made to this "side of the pond". Maybe JP Morgan Chase's gold derivative denials were premature or they are sweating tonight. "Interesting Times"

Spartacus
(11/08/2002; 02:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 89046)
Japan
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APctTeRXJVGFrZW5h
Japanese bonds are headed for their first losing week since September after government warnings that slowing economic growth is eroding tax revenue, which sparked concern the nation will sell more debt.
-----------
Japan's government debt will probably rise to 693 trillion yen by the end of March, according to Ministry of Finance figures. That's 40 percent more than the nation's gross domestic product and the highest among industrialized countries.

Blackjack
(11/08/2002; 03:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 89047)
Global derivatives $128 TRILLION!
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APct9GBWIT2ZmLUV4Basel, Switzerland, Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Derivatives trading outside exchanges grew 15 percent to $128 trillion in the first half of the year, driven by contracts pegged to interest rates, the Bank for International Settlements said.

``Derivatives are mainly used by financial institutions according to what they expect to happen to interest rates,'' said Serge Jeanneau, a statistician at the BIS. ``They're efficient instruments for managing financial risk.''

The market is at its biggest ever -- more than four times global gross domestic product as measured by the World Bank. Placed end to end, 128 trillion dollar bills would reach to the sun and back 67 times. Interest-rate contracts expanded 16 percent to $90 trillion from December to June, the BIS said in its twice- yearly report.
_________
Most of these instruments are interest rate related!
Yikes!
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 03:17:12 MDT - Msg ID: 89048)
Asian and Euro Markets Mostly Negative
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Foreign equities markets are mostly treading in negative territory tonight. US market futures are flat, the USD is weaker, and Gold is holding onto steady gains.

- Black Blade

BTW, I see that SJ Kaplan is still "Moderately Bearish" on gold. But then he's been bearish on gold since $255 an ounce. Hmmm...
Blackjack
(11/08/2002; 03:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 89049)
Link for futures
http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/This page gives you fair market value for futures.
Pre Market info.
NEMO me impune lacessit
(11/08/2002; 04:08:44 MDT - Msg ID: 89050)
Re: Q:s of D Marantette
http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf99/opa4327-99.htmWhat happened - link above would do the tric.
NEMO
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 05:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 89051)
Possible Placer Dome Takeover?
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/TGAM/20021108/RPLAC/Business/business/business_temp/4/4/5/
Snippit:

Placer Dome Inc. shares have been caught up in a torrent of trading as major mining players mull possible takeover scenarios. Industry sources said a number of foreign and domestic mining companies have privately expressed interest in acquiring some of Vancouver-based Placer's far-flung international gold mining assets in recent months, but no suitor has shown interest in bidding for the entire company. Sources familiar with some potential suitors said a number of proposals are being floated to resolve concerns about Placer's asset mix. For example, these sources said, one tentative proposal calls for a syndicate of buyers to launch a bid. If such a bid were successful, syndicate members would divide Placer's various assets among themselves. Suitors that have been approached about joining the syndicate, sources said, include Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. and some unidentified pension funds and financial investors. Markets were rife with rumours yesterday that London-based AngloGold Ltd. might soon mount a bid on its own or as a joint bid with another mining company.

Black Blade: Some "interesting" rumors this morning. Some say Newmont is in the hunt, others say Barrick, and yet others say a consortium of investors. Placer does have a few choice assets so who knows. This would be a big event in the mining industry if a takeover does occur.

Belgian
(11/08/2002; 05:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 89052)
The US$ * FEAR * factor....
How extremely difficult is it to manage the global dollar-exodus ? Very difficult !
Any kind of panic, resulting in an accelerated $-decline "must" be avoided by the Central Banks. That is not an easy task in combination with the different (euro/US) IR-policies.

The currency markets are not going to risk a big dollar-move as to not destroy themselves. Let us not forget that banks, aren't banks anymore, but gigantic storehouses of inflated paper-mountains, circling around and proliferating. Not only banks but many global businesses as well, will surely implode/default with a strong/fast, dollar-decline/collapse.

The dollar-shift must (at any cost) proceed *** Gradually *** ! The oil-pricers (OPEC) are co-operating to make this happen. But for how much longer can they remain disciplined and have their oil priced in dollars ? (impossible timing)

Phasing out the US$ is one of the most dramatic adventures in monetary history. It is happening now ! Gold remains very, very disciplined, together with oil. Their price-behavior is to be interpreted against this background.
One day, there will be a strong price-gapping in both because of a detoriating economy and geo-political tensions.
The gapping will be boosted by the derivative situation.

But all this remains impossible to time. It is a spiralling proces and not linear.
Zhisheng
(11/08/2002; 06:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 89053)
Dollar Pentrates 104,87(see Black Blade msg#: 89043 and msg#: 89003)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sThe dollar presently is 104.77!
CoBra(too)
(11/08/2002; 06:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 89054)
Global Derivatives at 128 Trillion $
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APct9GBWIT2ZmLUV4... according to BIS in Basle. That's 4 times the world's GDP (World Bank).

By far the largest player is JPM Chase with a 26,2 Trillion stake of the cake - denials R'Us?


Paper Avalanche
(11/08/2002; 06:37:02 MDT - Msg ID: 89055)
@ Belgian - ECB / BOE
Thank you for your insight. I have learned much from you in the past few years on this board. One thing that you said earlier caused me to think about the predicition on the gold trail regarding the dollar being abandoned on a wholesale level when England elects to go with the Euro (the vote for which is currently scheduled for May 2003). You said:

"Note that the UK left its IRs, unchanged, ALSO !!! In wich camp do you think they want to be ?"

Is possibly the fact that the BOE is taking cues from the ECB instead of the FED an implicit admission that the switch from the dollar to the Euro in roughly six months is a foregone conclusion and those in the know are taking measures now, given this inidcation of intent on the part of England, to "beat the rush to the exits"?

Have a terrific weekend.

PA
Gimli_
(11/08/2002; 06:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 89056)
In all fairness to SJ Kaplan.....
http://truecontrarian.com/BB said: "BTW, I see that SJ Kaplan is still "Moderately Bearish" on gold. But then he's been bearish on gold since $255 an ounce. Hmmm..."

Hey Jon,

SJ Kaplan has not update his webpage since September, so we really don't know his current position. Also, SJ Kaplan's position as varied from bearish and bullish a few times since gold was at $255/oz.

Granted, SJ Kaplan has missed profit opportunities by being too bearish in the last year, but he does offer a range of technical factors that should at least be considered. I don't think you're painting SJ Kaplan as a pawn of the gold manipulators is accurate, but I am also glad I haven't strictly followed SJ Kaplan's advice either. ;-)
Cavan Man
(11/08/2002; 07:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 89057)
@ CB (too)
RE: New OrleansDear friend, you were most definitely missed. On Wednesday eve, I hoisted a couple of pints and toasted your good health.

Richard Russell was worth the price of admission as I had to leave quite early (again). His presentation was a bit eerie; almost ominous. He spoke via video link from a Kinko's in La Jolla so perhaps it was the meduim but....he came across to me as issuing a warning of sorts. If you have read A Christmas Carol, then I know you are familiar with the Ghost of Christmas'Future.

You know, it is often too easy to get caught up in the Bear's case; it is much easier to be pessimistic. Some, by their nature, are more inclined to be ultra conservative with their investments. Myself, I come down on the side of history. History always wins. Mr. Russell is "THE" market historian. DOW @ 4-5K is, in my opinion, in the cards. It is how we get there that will determine lifestyle for many.

Our friend sector had an interesting THOUGHT. He said his opinion on POG is that at some point when the metal is allowed to run free, the "spin" will be that we are conducting a "war on deflation" and that the high POG is not representative of $USD weakness.

Glad to be home as I have no fondness for that venue other than the excellnet company of clear thinkers and red beans and rice (sure do taste nice). Salutations....CM
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 07:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 89058)
Re: Gimli - SJ Kaplan

Well, I never accused him of being a "pawn of gold manipulators". However, I have read his commentary and recos for the last few years and he has been primarily bearish (especially so since gold hit about $255 an ounce). He made one or two reversals only to quickly change course again. His other recos in stocks and funds have been..... how should I put this? Oh, deep in the red. His call for shorting tech stocks (notably ebay and Amazon) was a might bit early. Anyone followng that advice would have been whip-sawed badly. Granted the tech bubble was obvious to most of us, however, to go short in the middle of a "mania" is extremely dangerous.

But then again, these are differences between those who take a fundamental analysis (big picture) and value-oriented approach to investing vs. day trading tactics using technical analysis. No one position is perfect though I would say that those who bought at deep discount (contrarian investors) vs. those to buy trends (momentum investors) have done much better. It also helps to know that producers can't supply the market with product at below cost for very long ;-)

As far as his current position I would say that he would most likely have updated his site if his current outlook had changed. Obviously he hasn't found any need to make any changes to his position. His primary focus has been on COT's of commercials and speculators. That strategy hasn't worked for gold in a few years. Gold reacts to events both related to and external to the markets. Quite a dangerous strategy as he and others have come to find out. But then I am quite happy with my investment decisions as I have been consistently in the black. Investing really isn't all that complicated - it certainly isn't rocket science.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Cavan Man
(11/08/2002; 07:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 89059)
Ireland's Annual Inflation
For EU watchersCurrently running at 4.6% according to govt. stats. The largest increases were in "education and housing". At least they measure those two critical elements of modern lifestyles.

If those two components were added to US stats, inflation as reflected by prices for same would be much, much higher. While were at it, let's not forget about the cost of various insurnce products (here in US)
rsjacksr
(11/08/2002; 07:46:55 MDT - Msg ID: 89060)
France and Russia Back U.S. on Iraq, Call for Unanimous UN Vote
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_windex&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&T=markets_box.ht&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APcvEKhUnRnJhbmNlFrance and Russia Back U.S. on Iraq, Call for Unanimous UN Vote
By Bill Varner

SNIPPET


"`Debate Over'
``The debate about whether we're going to deal with Saddam Hussein is over,'' Bush said in Washington yesterday. ``Now the question is how to deal with him. This time it's for real. This time something happens.'' "

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 07:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 89061)
McDonald's Plans to Close 175 Restaurants, Eliminate 400 to 600 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021108/0938000489_1.html
Snippit:

OAK BROOK, Ill. -- McDonald's Corp. unveiled plans Friday to close 175 under performing restaurants and cut between 400 and 600 jobs world-wide in an effort to emphasize sales growth at existing restaurants.

Black Blade: Oh no! Another career opportunity lost. The "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 08:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 89062)
UN Resolution Passes

The new UN resolution passed the UN Security Council 15-0. Iraq has one week to accept the new demnads or face war. Looks like a done deal as it includes weapons searches in Saddam's "palaces" and anywhere - anytime searches within the Iraq's borders.

- Black Blade
goldenpeace
(11/08/2002; 08:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 89063)
$$$$$324.8$$$$$$$$
With the tide of paper currencies and manipulated derivatives far outpacing the advance in the gold price from $35 in the sixties and with the $ now on shaky ground due to the vast current account deficit, budget deficit, and Fed support operations for the banks (mandated by such a weak debt laden economy ), the gold price at $322 is a far, far better deal for savers than that which existed in the late sixties. Go physical gold!
MK
(11/08/2002; 09:02:59 MDT - Msg ID: 89064)
The Squeeze
Sometime back, in a discussion with Belgian, I pointed out that banks would have difficulties in low to zero interest rate environment in that profits would be squeezed as interest rate differentials narrowed. To make enough money to support a bank at .25% spread (for example), a bank's loan book would have to swell beyond any measure of prudence. In order to survive, banks will have to charge more for the various services it offers just to survive. That's why you saw the drop in bank sector stocks yesterday, including JP Morgan.

But what about money market funds which do not have the luxury of charging for services like banks do?

In today's Financial Times an article titled "Fed rate cut puts squeeze on money market funds," we learn that the .5% interest rate plunge threatens savers like you and me far beyond what we may have imagined when the cuts were first announced. As we open our future money market account statements, we are going to see something that is sure to cause a sinking feeling -- the rate of return in many cases will have fallen below 1%! This raises the specter of "breaking the buck" -- that is asset values falling in money market funds below $1 causing investors to "actually lose money on their money fund investments."

Forget about "real rate of return," Belgian. We are no courting the prospect of not even receiving a "nominal rate of return" in our savings! The FT article pooh-poohs the prospect then immediately talks of money market funds merging to survive. We have never had an interest rate environment near zero in the modern financial structure. This is all new ground, and no one in the banking industry has a clue where this is going to take us. Bruce Bent, the founder of money market funds according to FT, warns investors "to take the opportunity to look at the quality of their funds as they struggle to maintain the status quo." Oh -Oh.

I can say one thing for certain: My gold holdings went up 1% just in the past few days. I know my money markets are going to come in right around 1% but more probably lower. These are the kind of numbers that will cause a radical shift in capital allocation all over the globe -- and in the United States among millions of savers who no longer can count on the dollar to provide a return. The very dour look of Alan Greenspan as pictured in this morning Financial Times tells the story better than any words I can put on this page. As a Wall Street friend said to me yesterday, " Alan doesn't know how to walk away."

By the way, I see the ECB hold as temporary -- much dissent on the ECB board, we hear. Much like the Fed before the big cut. Holding out for the nation states to demonstrate fiscal integrity is not going to hold up in the current Euroland political environment. Gold demand will gather pace on both sides of the Atlantic as the realization sets in that no paper is good paper these days.
Zhisheng
(11/08/2002; 09:15:23 MDT - Msg ID: 89065)
Manipulation.
The dollar has hit a new low for the day as has the S&P index, yet gold and silver are not responding by rising.

The minipulators seem to be more concerned with the precious metals than with currency and the stock markets.
Belgian
(11/08/2002; 09:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 89066)
@ Paper Avalanche
I can confirm you Sir, that many of the Britisch people are already leaving, de facto, their sterling currency, by buying, massively, real estate in France and Spain. The Irish "Yes" was a booster and Sweden's "OK", will add to it.
But don't get too optimistic about your six months time table or the "rushing" in. Remember, we want it "gradually" and smoothly. There's a hell of a lot of this dollar-confetti that needs to be exchanged/transformed and those who are stucked with it, prefer to do so at the most favorable exchange rate possible. Nobody is served with any kind of *collapsing* currency. The ECB might even lower its IRs, if and when the dollar-flight might go too fast or violent. IRs will NOT be lowered for economical purposes !!!
cfr. Duisenberg : lower IRs will not bring jobs or prevent unemployment. It is purely exchange rate management from Euroland's point of vieuw. Not so for the dollar-block.
mudr
(11/08/2002; 09:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 89067)
$$$$ 320.50 $$$$
There's my guess. Having been shook out of my favorite gold mine stock by its ups and downs, I am firmly convinced that the best way to be in this GOLD bull market is to buy at a reasonable point and hold on. The POG may fluctuate and the same old "fear talk" may be posted on the boards that was posted when GOLD was trying to break $300, but today the price is well over that amount. The POG will zigzag it's way across the time line, but it's overall trend is UP. Buy now, wait a year or two, don't worry to much in between the times. Our fundamental reasons for joining the GOLD bull market has not changed nor will it change with the daily fluctuations. Hold on tight. Good luck to all and thanks for all your postings.
Gandalf the White
(11/08/2002; 10:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 89068)
ATTENTION Sir Mudr !!!! WHERE IS RULE #7 paragraph ?
mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 89067)
===
Come on !! I know you can do it !
<;-)
MoonHowler
(11/08/2002; 10:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 89069)
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$
Yes, buying gold now is nearly identical as buying gold in the late 1960's. Gold always has been and always will be an international currency and source of wealth. Regardless of the price that gold is, it will always be a valuable commodity to own and nothing can change that. A nation's currency can rise and then fall, but gold is forever.
Paper Avalanche
(11/08/2002; 10:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 89070)
Lost your job in NY? Not to worry, your taxes are going up!
http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/50328.htmJoe sixpack is finding himself sandwiched between raging inflation (despite the fact that the government is lying about it to keep COLA adjustments low) and increasing taxes. Couple that with the fact that what little remaining discretionary Joe Sixpack has left after buying too much house during the boom times is not being spent because JS thinks that he may be next in line for the bone pile. All this has to make you wonder just how much more steam the consumer has left in his little engine.

BTW, I hate being refererred to as a consumer. I am a sovereign.

@ Belgian - Thank you again for your insight. Your wisdom is very much appreciated and often needed to smooth out my reactionary positions or statements.

Take care all!

Paper Avalanche
CoBra(too)
(11/08/2002; 11:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 89071)
@ MK - The Squeeze
Great insight, as others feel the same.
Your post was just chosen as brilliant by Chris Powell of GATA:

11:16a CT Friday, November 8, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The most brilliant analysis of the week may belong to
Michael Kosares of Centennial Precious Metals in
Denver, proprietor of www.USAGold.com, who seems
to have tossed off the commentary below as a casual
aside on his Internet site's forum. If you read only
one thing on the markets this week, read this.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Thanks for your thoughts and congrats - cb2

Belgian
(11/08/2002; 11:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 89072)
@ Sir Kosares : The Squeeze !?
We also have to consider that fiat can sit idle and simply undergoes its destruction without finding the Gold escape route. Declining stock markets have the effect of evaporizing fiat that never was. Declining IRs are only bookmarked profits (rising bond-prices) that will never materialize (cashed profits_no buyers). In other words, fiat-confetti simply vanishes without having been exchanged for a tangible. The confetti mountains melt.
Who dares to organise POG's runaway gap as to signal wich way, one has to run ? Is this the reason why funds are not allowed to invest in physical Gold ?

Yes, I keep on dreaming about that fatal squeeze and the fatal "one step too far". But how much freedom is left in this financial jungle ? If 100 Trillion of derivatives can grow to 125 Trillion...
If France and Russia can be bribed on Iraq ...
If stocks can remain so obscenely over-valued for so long...

The financial circus is on its way of total paralysis through hyperkinesis/volatility, except for POG. How do you see this squeeze happennig ?
Max Rabbitz
(11/08/2002; 11:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 89073)
Guess for Sir Gandalf
$$$$ 322.7 $$$$

The answer to the question of Rule #7.....is.....yes and no. Yes in that gold was/is managed to create the illusion of a stable dollar value, unrelated to reality and ready to jump. No in that this time we've made no promise of a link. Just a wink. Not a link. Winks have an unlimited upside. Is that 30 words?

P.S. Thanks MK for the Philharmonic runner-up coin in the last price quessing contest. It arrived within the week in a box so big and wrapped so tight. It's a jewel of a coin. If anyone wants to take it from me they'll have to pry it out of my cold dead fingers (apologies to Chuck Heston).

P.P.S. Looks like a wedge formation on the $POG chart with convergence around $325. Irresistible force vs. immovable object? The object gets moved, but not by December 02 settlement close.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/08/2002; 12:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 89074)
True Wealth: If you have it, you can FEEL it.
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(11/08/2002; 12:21:24 MDT - Msg ID: 89075)
USAGOLD International -- No VAT. Let us put gold in your hands.
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlThe assistance and pricing you want, the professionalism you need.
(see link above for details)
Pizz
(11/08/2002; 12:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 89076)
On a Hope and Prayer
I sure hope that the PTB have their contingency plans in order, or that their crystal balls are a lot clearer than most, cause it appears to me they've just backed our enemies into a pretty tight corner.

We now have Republican majority in both houses and a political shift to the right.

We've drawn the line in the sand for Iraq thru the UN, but with what appears to be 45 day or so wiggle room which could conveniently take us thru year end financially.

We have the Fed with what sure looks like a preemptive rate cut for something in excess of what was expected, which to me is nothing more than a life preserver for the multinational banks and interest rate derivatives that is probably designed to keep a major failure from happening in the near term.

And then we have Bush's speach today, with the comment that we still reserve the right to defend ourselves.

My take is that we have a war-war senario. Even if Sadaam rolls over completely, which I doubt seriously, our good friends the Al Queda probably have the ability to throw a monkey wrench into the pot with another terrorist attack which will more than likely be the straw that could break our economy's back.

I don't see a peaceful way out of this, and the .50 rate cut is buying just about enough financial time for war, Sadaam, and/or the terrorists to take the blame for the fall rather than the system.

PM's also appear to be in a win-win senario, with what appears to be serious but subtle accumulation.

Pizz

Gandalf the White
(11/08/2002; 12:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 89077)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
UPDATE on THE "gc2z" POG GUESSING CONTEST !!!NINTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 12:20 Denver time 11/08/02

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - 0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - 0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

******7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

$?$? 320.5 ?$?$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 ?*? nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

===

PLEASE give a little thought to RULE #7 after you have determined YOUR WINNING PROGNOSTICATION of Tuesday's Settlement Gold Price !
WITHOUT the paragraph addressing the QUESTION, your entry can not be accepted !
There may be some "accepted entries" that OWE me a "paragraph" !!
You know who you are !!
<;-)
MK
(11/08/2002; 12:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89078)
Sirs Cobra, Belgian, Chris Powell. . .
Thanks CB2. My best wishes to you and yours. Can't go into ski season, snow on the highest ranges without thinking about you. And thanks for the kind words.


And thanks to you too, Chris. As all politics are local, so all finance comes down to each of our individual portfolios. We all sit afloat in this same leaky boat. My best to you, Bill Murphy and GATA. With all due respect, I defer to Mr. Richard Russell and his recent comments for brilliance. He is much sager than I -- a mentor for all of us -- and, in turn, all of us on the gold side are wiser for his presence. I agree with him that gold and the DJIA will cross in the 2000 to 3000 range. That crossover can only happen in the tumult of a monetary crisis.

Belgian, you are so right to ask about "how much freedom is left in the financial jungle." A day does not go by in conversations with well-heeled investors, when the subject inevitably gets around to the limited choices these days (in this environment). Just had an interesting conversation with a client where we went through the check-list of choices and just about skotched all options -- or at least defined their limitations. The best we can do is diversify, build savings (paper & gold), conduct our businesses, professions and work to the best of our ability, and, as always, hope for the best.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(11/08/2002; 13:19:42 MDT - Msg ID: 89079)
Stupid Is, as Stupid Is !
Forgive me for being stupid, but I still have NOT picked up on WHY WE (USA BANKING SYSTEM) CANNOT EXIST/FUNCTION/OPERATE with .5% Interest Rates??? If we have a source of Oil, does it really matter if we lose the CURRENCY WAR? WE HAVE ALREADY LOST THAT WAR! GREENSPAN KNOWS IT; HE'S NOT THAT BIG A DUMMY! Foreignors will take our dollars if they want to sell anything and boost their economic well being. The banks, because of their derivative positions are essentially NOW insolvent, broke/busted, whatever you want to call their status. Who cares about money market/CD/passbook/ accounts? They are financial vehicles that have no relevance in today's economic setting/outgrown their lifespan just like the dollar. HAS ANYBODY even considered that with negative returns from these financial instruments, other alternatives (spending/consumption) are the underlying reasons for their eventual elimination! WE JUST NEED OIL! IF WE HAVE OIL, THE US CAN START A NEW INDUSTRIAL AGE IN MANUFACTURING, ETC.
IT IS ALL ABOUT OIL, IN MY BOOK! THE DOLLAR WAS TOAST YEARS AGO, EVEN IF WE HAVE NOT FELT ALL THE REPERCUSSIONS AS OF YET!
Guided
(11/08/2002; 13:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 89080)
The pot (ME oil) will be split
One thing. The US will have to split this pot.
The other players at the table are not about to fold and this is not a winner take all game.
Limited choices indeed.

In the footsteps
Tacitus
(11/08/2002; 14:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 89081)
Relax!Hoosier Goldbug

I hate to see somebody filled with so much fear and pain. It isn't just about oil. We are a rather productive people,we have that in our corner. Last I heard, we are4% of the worlds population yet produce 25% of the world's goods. That is good news. We therefore have lots to trade with. Gold isn't the only hard asset, there are cars, roads , homes etc. Even though the 2002 dollar is only worth 7%? of the 1920 dollar, we are producing enough in today's dollar terms to compensate. That might need to be qualified a little but I do not think it is too far off.

What are those Arabs going to do with all our dollars we give them for the oil. They could burn them but I think they would rather use them to buy some of our goods. That is trade; that means jobs etc. If the day were to come that they didn't need anything from us, then I might worry. Right now without our goods, they would have lots of oil but that is about all.

As far as money markets and CDs go, they aren't doing a lot for investors now but inflation is very low too, so we need to keep that in mind and not lose heart.

I am also have great confidence in our president, George W. Bush. Or should I call him George the Dragonslayer. I think we might be on the brink of something new on the political sphere. I am praying and hopeful. If the elections of 2004 go like those of 2002, we could be seeing a conservative revolution far superior than those of the eighties. The Republican party, the Grand Ol' Party has gone on the offensive and is stating conservative ideas, even conservative fiscal ideas in a language that is winning many Americans over. I believe the day people wake up and see the fact that wealth comes from productivity, not from increased wages or company hoarded profits, then we will be on our way. (Check out Henry Hazlitt's book, Economics in One Lesson.)

In the meanwhile, I still like the look of that pretty yellow metal. So I am keeping 10% of my wealth in gold. I have great hope for our future at this time but diversification makes sense to me in any time.

Now I hope you find peace of mind. Keep smiling and vote Republican. (Keep them in line though. Follow the Heritage Foundation. They come up with the best fiscal and cultural/moral policies. Fortunately, Our Commander-in-Chief is one of their fans)

Salve,
Tacitus
Guided
(11/08/2002; 14:41:05 MDT - Msg ID: 89082)
Thanks Tacitus
For that well spoken message of hope. A lot of truth in that.
Waverider
(11/08/2002; 14:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 89083)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThanks Black Blade and a happy weekend to all!
kludge
(11/08/2002; 14:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89084)
@Tacitus
Great postAlso, with a falling dollar our exports are now cheaper overseas stimulating (hopefully) more people buying our products. The other obvious side of the coin is that imports are more expensive, encouraging US citizens to Buy American. I know, ECON101 stuff - but that and a little common sense can take you a long way.

Take care and have a great weekend, all.

Aristotle
(11/08/2002; 15:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 89085)
Tacitus, or should I call you Cool Breeze?
Thanks for the fresh air! Guys like you are what makes the world go 'round. (Or at least you're what keeps the rest of us from wanting to jump off!)

I'd stay and chat a spell, but I see that Belgian has been busy earlier today. I'm always eager to see what's on his mind, 'cause if you're a cool breeze, that guy is what I'd call wind over the mountains! Brrrrrrr. Very refreshing!!

Gold. yadda yadda yadda. --- Ari
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 15:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 89086)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Bill Bonner (DailyReckoning):

"Home lending explosion has created more than just a record number of McMansions," reports a Dow Jones newswire. "There are also record numbers of homeowners now in bankruptcy protection." Chapter 13 has become required reading for many Americans, thanks largely to the encouragement of Alan Greenspan and the credit industry. Mortgage debt has risen 50% in the last 4 years, to $5.7 trillion. The number of people asking for Chapter 13 protection is rising at an 8% annual rate. "I think we're seeing only the front end of the wave," says Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor who specializes in consumer bankruptcy. One out of every 5 homeowners has refinanced his home in the last 12 months.

The nice thing about Chapter 13 is that it allows you to hold onto your home; you have to promise to catch up on your payments, but you can take years to do so. Mortgage lenders say that refinancers use the money to pay down other debt. But fewer than one in three of them did so in the last year. Meanwhile, revolving debt has risen 5% per year for the last 5 years.

Job losses, bankruptcies, less overtime, falling prices - all were beginning to have a sobering effect on the U.S. consumer, we thought. But along comes Alan Greenspan on
Tuesday, like a man coming to an AA meeting with a bottle of whiskey under his arm. Another rate cut will allow the biggest, longest-lasting, and most reckless lending spree to continue a while longer, he hopes...at least until his term is over.


Black Blade: Then again the chairman has another 125 basis points he can blow off. It does not look good for the US economy and as the US economy goes, so goes the rest of the world's economies. Of course should the other economies shake loose and dump the dollar as the primary reserve asset (as China appears to be doing with their CB gold acquisitions), then that could protect them a little from the New Great Depression. At least that's the hope. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 15:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 89087)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Dan Denning (Strategic Investments):

This is part of the same email from DailyReckoning. However, I found this particularly interesting as it is about a conversation with a well respected economist (Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher):

Just this morning I spoke with Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher on the phone. Dr. Richeb�cher is our resident Austrian economist - he identifies the excesses of credit markets and their effects on asset values. He's been busy the last 10 years. He told me he'll be making a trip to New York City later this month to visit with his old friends Paul Volcker and Henry Kaufman. - The old school of inflation fighters know Dr. Richeb�cher pretty well.

But the new school of would-be inflation igniters has no idea how bad things are going to get, especially for the dollar. Dr. Richeb�cher, who's working on a book about the U.S. asset bubble, told me, "you have no idea how bad it's going to get, my dear."

"Hasn't it already been pretty bad?" I replied, referring to the $9 trillion in stock market wealth wiped out.

"Yes, my dear, yes. But not as bad as it's going to get." - For its part, the market is paying no heed to Dr. Richeb�cher's dire warnings. But already Wednesday's rate cut is losing its potency. Used to be you could throw a rate cut in the middle of a room full of stock traders and you'd get a party that would make even Dennis Kozlowski blush. But now, some investors are complaining about the rate cuts.


Black Blade: Anyone who knows of Dr. Richeb�cher and his impressive record at predicting the markets will tell you that you should take heed. When he says it is going to get worse you can take that to the bank. Better yet protect yourself as I continue to recommend.


Cavan Man
(11/08/2002; 15:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 89088)
Republican or Democrat???
Too much faith in either party and in politicians in general is not good for one's financial, social, political and economic freedom. Caveat emptor! What is the core competency of government? I would submit that they are best at destroying the value of the coin of the realm. Witness the dollar declining 95% since 1911. For 100 years prior, the value of the USD remained stable--completely.

For myself and my family we vote a straight GOP ticket; but we have no illusions about what a GOP ticket will mean to us (or not). We vote in every election and just move on; voting in the next election. I/we have no emotional attachment to politics and regret to see so many on an individual or collective political jihad.

If we all spent more time concerning what comes "AD" and conducted our affairs in fear of that day, the world would be a much better place than if all political office were held by one party or ANOTHER. Regards....CM
Golden Bear
(11/08/2002; 16:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 89089)
Goldman Sachs closes Gold Desk...
Noticed earlier on Bloomberg Television that GS has fired its senior(?) Gold analyst and is closing its Gold analysis desk.

Why would a major broking firm close the desk of the best performing sector over the last 12 months?

Looking for the link....
Cavan Man
(11/08/2002; 16:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89090)
Dear Tacitus....
The very best "moral policies" are found deep within your heart; in your soul. Morality cannot be legislated.
R Powell
(11/08/2002; 17:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 89091)
Belgian // M.K.
Thanks for the insight concerning timing. You stated that the timing is near impossible to figure out. This answer did not surprise me.
There certainly is "a hell of a lot of this dollar-confetti that needs to be exchanged." Also have to agree that those doing the exchanging will "prefer to do so at the most favorable exchange rate possible." I learned years ago that the currency exchange game is too political, too uncertain and probably too complicated for my fundamental analysis approach but, from my opinion of human nature, I doubt that the U.S.$ decline will be orderly, gradual or peaceful unless forced to be so. I'll most assuredly agree that "Nobody is served with any kind of *collapsing* currency." but I don't rule out some sort of panic dumping of dollars if the general perception is that the dollar's "value" is rapidly declining. I don't wish for this but we must remember that the U.S. dollar is a fiat paper and the present currency exchange is a global electronic market.
I'm not disagreeing with anything you said, I'm just wondering how much control does exist regardless of who holds it or regardless of how coordinated and well intentioned the various PTB are towards producing a gradual descent. When unimaginable amounts of wealth are involved, I'm reminded of the three way standoff (gunfight) in the movie "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly". Someone, somewhere, will rush to exit and a stampede will ensue.


M.K. Congratulations on impressing two different Powells with your Squeeze thoughts. If we add some inflation to the squeeze (inflation here, being the increase in the cost of staying alive for the average consumer), to put the Mutual Funds tiny returns into the negative category, we'll sgueeze the living Bejesus right out of them. No more profit from the gold carry, no profit from mutuals, disaster in equities, a declining currency,...You may have to upgrade the telephone system! Gold and silver are shining brighter every day. I hope your business is very, very busy.
Happy weekend!!
Rich
Belgian
(11/08/2002; 18:03:41 MDT - Msg ID: 89092)
Euro and dollar at parity....
A very comfortable situation for both. Global trade will increasingly be confronted with a choice between those two completely different currencies with the same purchasing power. More and more individuals outside the US or Euroland will be free to decide wich currency they prefer to hold or use, next to their own currency. The present "parity" phase is an important one for the euro. The dollar-block hates this situation of equal footing. The financial media are painting this as a temporary situation without explaning why the euro rushed to parity in no time.

If this �/$ parity holds for quite some time (more than a year), the dollar block will suffer from the euro alternative in many ways. Think globally and you will see, I have, possibly, an important point here.

In the very nearby future, currencies will disconnect further and further away from their strict economical corset. Both currencies will receive attention about their intrinsic "monetarian" and "political" fundamentals. The dollar-evidence will systematically be put into more serious question. Monetary Euroland steams ahead, whilst politically unified Euroland follows more slowly.

At a given opportune moment, Gold comes on the forefront and will surely be associated with the euro. That's why the ECB marks quarterly to market its Gold reserves.

This process "must" happen/evolve in absolute discretion !

The $ and � will split on the Gold issue when the time is ripe for the euro. The dollar is already over the hill and will soon have less to offer than the euro. An euro earmarked with 2 very easy to understand, words : stability and growth ! The dollar will be left with its association of military might. But all wars do end and make place for peace and prosperity. A post WW, brandnew, currency will certainly have a strong appeal, especially when the association with Gold becomes evident.

We are all workers and entrepreneurs, striving for more, better and maximum productivity. Our different currencies and their relationship with Gold, will make the ultimate difference.

There is no other theory for explaining why POG is behaving as it is. The derivative situation can be detonated (or maintained) at will ! It is a pity that Another didn't elaborate extensively on what he ment by "political will".
Let's do some homework ourselves.
Buena Fe
(11/08/2002; 18:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 89093)
Bravo Belgian
I note that it was reported that the Canadian embassador (to the UN I think) stated that the Iraq resolution just passed actually REDUCED the possibility of a war.

I do not think GW got what he needed let alone wanted!

THERE WILL BE NO WAR!

The "PLAYERS" have decided that the $-Regime is expendable and I believe very soon.

GET MORE GOLD
Tacitus
(11/08/2002; 18:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 89094)
A Few Thoughts on Today's Many Talking Points
Gentlemen,

I read a lot of and then scanned the rest of today's entries. Lots of topics are being tackled. A few thoughts.

First of all I address myself to Aristotle. So you think I should change my pseudonym to "Cool Breeze". I kind of like it but just as you prefer a classical name, so do I. In fact, I think you may have very well inspired my choice. I like Tacitus because history is so important to understanding the market place. You see, there is even hidden meaning in my "name". However, I wasn't confident enough to pick the name, Herodotus, father of history. That would have been too much of a claim to wisdom. Regardless, you can call me "Cool Breeze". I just hope I can live up to your expectations.

Now for the rest of you philosophers and Aristotle too. One of you brought up the thought that lower rates will translate into more debt. That is one of my concerns too. If money gets too cheap, I am a little afraid that this will encourage too many to use money in foolish, that is, less than productive ways. In other words, there will be little or no return on this money and people will only put themselves in more debt. I wish Mr. Greenspan, who I trust more or less(perhaps this disappoints some of you), could respond telling me why this concern is unfounded. Or perhaps one of my brother philosophers has some insights. It seems to me generally speaking, it would be best to let the market determine the cost of borrowing money. As industry slows, the interest rates should go down all by themselves, right? And when business is growing too quickly, then the interest rates will rise as money is in greater demand, thus slowing growth to a healthier rate. But there has to be some logic to what Mr. Greenspan is doing. I suppose a little tinkering can be helpful. Looking for insights here.

Then there is Cavan Man. Don't lose faith my fellow Republican. We must hold to our principles and make sure our fellow party members do the same. Part of the duty of citizens is to get involved on the civic level and never lose hope. I see you vote the party line but that is only the start. We have to make sure those conservative principles of less government, efficient government, national defense, civic virtue, and personal responsibility, to name a few, are spread. Political and Religious indifferentism has become fashionable, perhaps because there have been too many "isms" which have led to tragedy. But take heart. I am not advocating shooting democrats, only making converts of them. Take a look at what happened in the state legislature in Georgia. Three Democrats switched parties thus throwing the majority to the Republicans for the first time since Reconstruction in Georgia!

And as far as not being able to legislate morality, there is some truth to that. People have to be prudent. Law can only set the broad boundaries. But if you look at welfare reform inspired by my former governor, Governor Thompson, you can see the good effects, morally speaking, of good laws. In this example, I believe we have a better system which encourages people to be more productive and thus discover a new sense of selve worth. That then frees up for us some tax payer dollars so that we and they can buy more gold or stocks or bonds or cars. And as far as worrying more about A.D.(after death?), I think it is the duty of every Christian to do their best to make this a better world too. We just have to be careful not to fall into any "Utopianism."

Well, that is my contribution to this conversation my fellow lovers of truth. Your turn.

Sincerely,
Tacitus

Belgian
(11/08/2002; 18:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 89095)
@ Rich
Yes Sir, there definitely will be a "moment supreme" of rushing out of the US$-reserve currency. Not the slightiest doubt about that. But will it be at the relative beginning of the decline or in the second half of the process ?
The answer fully depends on what happens geo-politically that is of nature to bring critical masses together as to detonate the inevitable. That's why we all ponder daily on the ME-oil thing and the fate of the US in particular.
Just imagine some ME oil producers, proposing Euroland to pay for oil with euro, after Iraq is occupied and its oil confiscated !?
It is NOT the US who will abandon the dollar-ship (least likely). And how will the evolution of the global economy affect us all ?
We are only left with our subjective interpretation of POG's behavior and trust that the Gold club-insiders do give us "the" signal that Free Gold is here to come.

Unilateral currency devaluations are events that happen overnight. But we are talking about the present globe's currency ($). When there was no dollar-alternative (euro) in the past, it was much easier to accept the wild gyrations of its exchange rate against all other small and insignificant (non competive) currencies. Today the situation is quite different. The euro management can't afford any major mistake(s) in its quest to overrule the dollar once and for all. It is a currency World War and ,not a local revolution.

Happy weekend all.
R Powell
(11/08/2002; 18:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 89096)
For those interested in some market numbers
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm Not surprisingly the non-commercials or Funds covered some short silver positions and are now net long again. I believe the bulk of this occured as soon as the fund managers were convinced that the downtrend had reversed. Tough job, huh, look at a chart and remember to buy if the chart line is rising- sell if the line is going down. Chart line up-buy! Chart line down- sell. Wax on, wax off.
The Commercials, as usual, accommodate the funds, this week by selling what the funds wanted to buy.
The non-reportables or small investors reduced both their long and short silver positions but offset more shorts than longs. They are now net long 21,198 contracts. I still believe (just one man's opinion) that the silver market trades almost entirely off technical (chart reading) considerations and will until there is a real or perceived shortage of metal OR until POS is lifted by gold or by a rise in commodity prices in general. There are many commodity analysts calling for higher commodity prices across the board reflecting price inflation in basic raw materials. Perhaps the bigger overall monetary picture is now much more powerful a force than the fundamentals or specifics of any one commodity. In keeping with M.K.'s squeeze of paper returns, maybe money will flow this way. I hope so.
Happy Friday night here on the eastern USA coast
and Happy Weekend!
Rich
Golden Bear
(11/08/2002; 18:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 89097)
Tacitus (msg#: 89094)
"...That is one of my concerns too. If money gets too cheap, I am a little afraid that this will encourage too many to use money in foolish, that is, less than productive ways. In other words, there will be little or no return on this money and people will only put themselves in more debt. I wish Mr. Greenspan, who I trust more or less(perhaps this disappoints some of you), could respond telling me why this concern is unfounded...."

Tacitus my dear fellow, where have you been the last five years? During this period, more misallocation of resources has occurred due to the manipulated lowering of interest rates by Greenspan than at any other time in history!

Look at your 10 year note... at what, 4%, that doesn't even cover inflation (real inflation), not what the Government reports from their ivory tower.

This is why now you are watching first hand the bursting of the biggest bubble in 100 years.

Be careful, your Cool Breeze may become a blizzard rather quickly....
Golden Bear
(11/08/2002; 18:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 89098)
Inflation vs Deflation debate...an interesting comment...
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1087"...Mises.org: What does the lowering of rates mean for the supply of money and credit?

Shostak: If you read the Fed's statement, you see that creating money is the goal. If you look at the money base, the latest figures for October, increases were running 6.7 percent year on year. In September, the increases were running 5 percent. So already, the Fed was pushing quite a bit of new money into the system. It won't surprise me to see them really step it up now.

While the Fed is going to do its best to inflate the money, it can happen that money supply won't increase - depending on the behavior of banks. If banks stop lending, due to tighter credit standards or fewer borrowers, the money supply will not respond. This is what happened in the 1930s..."
-------------------------------------------------------
GB: Some evidence for you Tacitus.... 12 rate cuts in 2 years, with 11 in 12 months - how else does a central banker try to stop a bubble from deflating, a bubble that was recognized by Greenspan in 96 and allowed to grow to monstrous proportions... using the same tools to stop it that were used to create it in the first place.

CHECKMATE...
Aristotle
(11/08/2002; 19:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 89100)
Belgian, thanks especially for #89044 on the US-$
There was an interesting angle in your presentation that cast new light on the old familiar faces. In this light a seedling sprung rapidly to an old oak. The germ of the thought was in your comments:

= = =
"The heart of the matter is that we do not realize how much of this dollar-stuff has been distributed around the globe in the past 30 YEARS! NOT ONE SINGLE DOLLAR WILL RETURN BACK TO WHERE IT ORIGINALLY CAME FROM!"

"Why would/should the US accept any of the, confetti it has been producing all those decades!? There's no such thing as "return to sender"! Address unknown and Alice doesn't live here anymore."

"The whole globe has been dollarized, the american way (americanism)."
= = =

In an approximate way, mankind around the world has been coming of age together, some a little ahead of the others, depending on geography, but still more or less together. It was almost overnight that cars were filling the roads on all continents, chasing the horses back into pastures, and planes were making skies everywhere a dangerous place for birds to fly at unawares.

The uniqueness of religion and national custom among groups of peoples have contributed to the speed and degree to which the groups have accepted various behavioral innovations (industrial, financial, technological) over the long span of years, but its probably fair to say that the quality of being members of the human species means these groups of us all share more fundamentally in common with each other than not in common based on religion, culture, etc.

In other words, wherever on earth a human being might find himself today, we're all pretty much riding in the same boat. I'm pretty sure you agree with me on this to the extent that what I'm referring to is perfectly characterized in your other thoughts today about life being worth living, about the need for the shift to occur **gradually**! and the possibility of the ECB lowering IRs so as not to rock the boat in the process of winning this currency war.

I tend to look at the ECB less as a general trying to win a currency war, and more like a shepherd keeping wolves and things from spooking the flock at it moves across unfamiliar terrain toward greener pastures.

In this process, I think maybe a great deal of unnecessary confusion results among people (I don't count you among them) who insist on clinging to the notion of "us guys" versus "them guys."

Here's my point that ties all this together. As we (the world's population) have all come together to share this point in time, United States citizens (and its government) are certainly not the only creatures who have innovatively borrowed these trillions of dollars into existence. The IMF's international operations and the Eurodollar market stand as good examples that the dollar has become a global utility. The world has long embraced the innovative usage and convenience of this utility -- the dollar.

Except for the one's actually printed by the Treasury's Bureau of Engraving, none of these dollars have "Made in the U.S.A." on them. They exist as bookkeeping entries on bank ledgers.

They belong to the world.

Therefore...

The world is perfectly free to pursue innovation -- to discard this common utility, the dollar, if it has been deemed collectively unwieldy or obsolete.

And here's the rub...

While "us guys," the U.S. people, haven't been completely responsible for the creation of every single dollar that's swirling around out there, without argument we have been the PRIMARY (glorious!) BENEFICIARY of the world's decision to use dollars all these years instead of some other currency like an "eartho" which we couldn't have so easily printed to sell abroad for the low price of interest. We've really enjoyed a free ride, and a good long run at that.

As I see it, the ECB isn't "them guys" hell bent on sticking it to "us guys" because they don't like us. No. Instead, the ECB is the figurehead for the organized part of the rest of the world saying "we desire to shift to greener pastures, and we will now walk confidently in this new direction." The world has been crippled under its own dollars, and it wants to shrug off this burden. Who are "us guys" to stop them?

To return to my "we're all in the same boat" analogy, the global boat is foundering, taking on massive water. It's obvious (to them) why the engineers and everyone on the lower decks are wanting to launch the lifeboats and abandon ship. Meanwhile, the Americans, still enjoying the sunshine and parties on the upper deck, are loath to recognize that a problem truly exists below the surface.

If more Americans were to view the dollar issue for what it is -- the world's problem of the world's making -- instead of clinging to our remaining privileged days in the sun, perhaps we could all see past any petty "us guys" versus "those guys" issues and join in the positioning ourselves as the world prepares to shrug off its dollar usage, to walk away from its own overgrown problem.

It's only "us" versus "them" insofar as the American "exorbitant privilege" will be flattened into a more level playing field -- a chessboard filled with currency pawns on which Gold is king on each side.

I hope I haven't put too much fertilizer on this poor little seed!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Tacitus
(11/08/2002; 20:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 89101)
Raising and Lowering Interest Rates
Dear Golden Bear,
I am not sure of what you are saying. Is it therefore a mistake to lower or raise rates? Should this never be done?
Cavan Man
(11/08/2002; 20:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 89102)
Thank you Aristotle.
Bravo. My clear thinking abilities have significantly improved whilst reading your fertilizer.
mikal
(11/08/2002; 20:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 89103)
@BuenaFe
That is a fresh viewpoint you have relayed about Iraq! And I agree with you only so far as the POSSIBILITY of a peaceful resolution, which, if enough people were to envision, would materialize. The PROBABILITY lies now, IMHO, with a terrorism-inspired war, a la, Afghanistan, which is not yet a fait accompli. We know what that would do to energy costs, insurance premiums, trade flows and more. Inflating their way out of debt using all the tools at their disposal perhaps. Thank you for your unique Iraq perspective. Long live diplomacy!
Golden Bear
(11/08/2002; 20:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89104)
Tacitus (msg#: 89101)
Your question leads me to believe you are of a Keynesian bent...

Let me answer your question with a question.

Before the Federal Reserve came into being (illegally, against what was stated in the US Constitution), who controlled interest rates?
Waverider
(11/08/2002; 21:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 89105)
Rich Powell
I just got off of the phone with my internet support person and the method that I suggested yesterday is, in fact, not the same as what Black Blade suggested. My suggested method works to clean enough space to download the current DMR, but BB's method clears *all* the temporary folders in the cache - I had over 5,000 - yikes!! When you click on the my computer icon, right click on your C drive icon, then click on properties, and then clear disc. I shall take BBs advice and do this preventative maintenance now when I start my system. Cheers,
Waverider
ax
(11/08/2002; 21:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 89106)
We Should All be Bankers- or We Should All Own GOLD

Correct me if I am wrong but if you own a bank, and just
lend money out, avoiding complex derivitive plays, you
should do very well.

How?

You borrow money from the FED at DR .75 % or from other
banks at FF 1.25 % ( or thereabouts), or from checking
and savings account holders at around 1 % or so, then
you lend out:

1. business loans at minimally the prime rate of 4.25%

2. home loans at about 6 %

3. car loans at about 7.5 %

4. credit card loans of anywhere between 12 -22 %


This is not a bad rate of return for the bankers.

The drop in the DR and FF of .5 % Wed has reduced the
above percentages by no more than this amount, but when
the rates are so much higher in absolute terms, the benefit
to the consumer is problematical. The benefit appears to
accrue mainly to the banks by increasing their ability to borrow money very cheaply.

The Saver is worse off than the consumer. The Saver has
a a choice of:

1. pass book savings in the 1 % range

2. 3 month TB bills at near the FF rate of 1.25 %

3. or 2 year, 5 year and 10 year notes who pay a higher
yield but which are subject to the risk of a falling
dollar or a sudden reversal in the interest rate
decimating their market price

4. common stocks which have proven to be very risky
over the last 2 1/2 years and which mostly still
have unreasonably high P/E ratios and most of which
pay very little or no dividends


BUT THEN THERE IS GOLD ----

THE ONLY LOGICAL
INVESTMENT FOR EVERYONE.


ax
Gold N Rule
(11/08/2002; 21:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 89107)
Responses to Tacitus#89094 and comment to Golden Bear#89104
http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/mcherald/news/local/4473702.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jspThe link above corresponds to the following article which gives another view of the direction this country is taking under the forces of the Conservative Right Control- Freak- War-mongers.....

snippit:

Posted on Fri, Nov. 08, 2002


WEBB: DON'T ATTACK IRAQ
Former Marine urges restraint
By ALEX FRIEDRICH
afriedrich@montereyherald.com
A former Cabinet member under former President Ronald Reagan told military officers Thursday in Monterey that the
United States should not invade Iraq.

Former Secretary of the Navy James Webb said the country should focus instead on eliminating international terrorism.
Speaking at
the Naval Postgraduate School, Webb said that without a clear understanding of consequences - or a clear exit strategy -
U.S. forces
face a decades-long occupation that could sap American resolve and resources.

The United States also risks inflaming Arab anger even more if it invades without first finding a solution to the Palestinian
problem -
which would include establishment of a Palestinian state, Webb said.

"I am very concerned with the direction this country may be going with regard to Iraq," Webb told several hundred students
and
faculty members. "Are we going to reshape American foreign policy to put (soldiers) on the ground in the Middle East? I think
it's a
mistake."

Webb, a best-selling novelist who also has written nonfiction since leaving the military, cautioned against an invasion in a Sept.
4
article in the Wall Street Journal.

He has argued against toppling the regime and rebuilding the government unless the United States is in direct danger. The
evidence
of such danger, he said, is not in sight.

Despite the size of the U.S. armed forces, he said, a collection of 1.5 million troops "is not that many" if it's spread out over
the
world.

"There are a lot of recently retired officers with experience who are concerned," he said.

The failure of the United States to solve the Palestinian problem would also complicate any invasion by inflaming Arab tension.

"I don't think we have clean hands" in the Palestinian issue, he said, and have failed "to effect a Palestinian state. Without that
happening, anything we do in that region can be misconstrued to our detriment."

America must also focus on aggressively pursuing trans-national terrorist organizations, he said, "even if it means (crossing)
boundaries of (host) countries not doing the policing."


COMMENT: Tacitus how dare you suggest you Republicans are the Moral Majority needing to convert Democratic Infidels!!

Besides hard-working people professionally Democrats work hard for all Americans that may be disabled veterans or sick or elderly, because we have the real Compassion the Bible talks so much about.....With your gloating administration currently in power don't plan on more money in your pocket to buy more gold, on the contrary, the richest one percent may snare a few extra bucks as the government will rape the little guy so it can spend billions on star war programs, and the military and put our national budget deeper and deeper into debt....No what you'll get in the end is more deregulation of corporate polluters so there will be no pristine paradise left to retire in with your gold and basically you'll be paying more to Insurance, cable companies and the like(private sector) instead of the government(which is actually our money back to us). Bush Sr. will add to his wealth as part of the Carlyle Group who will profit the most off the war along with the family's oil cohorts.......But no.. you and me will not profit beyond our investment in things like PM's I fear!

Golden Bear: I agree, Tacitus's views are extraordinary indeed!
Cytek
(11/08/2002; 21:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 89108)
The Rumor that won't die.
http://finance.canada.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpCTe0d8bndC2mJCX&FQ=c%25PDG-CA%20&Type=&Heading=Search%20Results%20-%20PDG&BC=Search%20ResultsThe rumour that won't die
Financial Post - Friday November 8, 2002


By Steve Maich

Investors keep worrying about J.P. Morgan's gold hedging exposure

The rumour that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is facing massive losses on gold derivative exposure is the market conspiracy theory that will not die.

J.P. Morgan insisted yet again yesterday that its derivative exposure remains minimal, calling the latest rumours "false and irresponsible." But that didn't stop investors from driving the shares (JPM/NYSE) down 6.6% yesterday.

Despite the denials, thousands of investors and analysts suspect J.P. Morgan has more on the line than it's letting on. Just as they did when Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. slipped last summer on concerns about their extensive hedging strategies, investors are complaining about a lack of transparency in derivatives trading, and a general distrust of complex financial structures.

One former brokerage credit officer, now working as an independent analyst, said the market has very little faith in assurances about risk exposure when they aren't backed up by hard data.

"To see what some of these companies have as real exposure and then hear their public statements, it just boggles the mind sometimes," he said. "You just don't know, and that's the point."

J.P. Morgan became heavily involved in forward gold contracts in the 1990s when the commodity price was in a slow decline. Market watchers at the time said gold was going nowhere in the new global economic environment, and the derivatives market allowed banks like J.P. Morgan to extract profits from a marooned asset class.

As far as most analysts are concerned, J.P. Morgan's massive derivatives program amounted to a short position on the price of gold. And with gold prices up 17.5% in the past year, speculation is swirling that the bank is now taking a serious pounding.

How big the losses are, is a matter of endless debate.

David Hendler, a bond analyst at Creditsights Inc., an independent research firm in New York, discussed the gold question in a Sept. 23 report to clients. He concluded that there is not enough public information released by the bank to precisely determine the risks, but there are a few clues that suggest reasons for concern.

First and foremost is J.P. Morgan's extensive participation in the derivatives market, he said. In all, the bank holds about US$26-trillion in futures and options contracts, or roughly 50% of the overall market. That's more than twice the size of the entire annual U.S. gross domestic product.

J.P. Morgan has reduced its gold contracts over the past year, but it is still relatively overexposed compared to other major banks, Mr. Hendler said. At the end of the second quarter Morgan's gold contracts were worth US$45-billion on a notional basis. Citigroup, the largest financial services company with about 50% more total assets than J.P. Morgan, has just US$12-billion in gold derivatives.

Notional value isn't a true reflection of the bank's risk, because it refers to the potential maximum value of a contract. But even a writeoff of 5% of its total gold contract would represent a loss in excess of US$2-billion, greater than the bank's total net income in 2001.

Like all banks, J.P. Morgan has stress-tested its portfolio and insists that even in its worst-case "value at risk" scenario, its gold contracts would cut just US1� per share from its 2003 earnings. But, like all banks, it refuses to go into the specifics of trading strategies, or how they arrive at their risk models, as these are proprietary secrets.

If the denials are starting to ring hollow, it's because J.P. Morgan has had to issue so many of them in recent months.

The bank is trying to recover US$965-million in losses from doomed derivatives transactions with Enron Corp. The insurance companies involved maintain the deals were tantamount to fraud and they've refused to pay. The bank also faces a variety of lawsuits arising from its role as financier to Enron and WorldCom Inc. The bank has denied all allegations of wrongdoing, and so far hasn't taken a provision for the potential losses, insisting that they'll be vindicated.

Back in July, Kathy Shanley, an analyst at Gimme Credit, an independent bond research firm, said "there is no way to responsibly quantify the ultimate financial impact of the current investigations."

J.P. Morgan is also at the centre of a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into allegations that the bank forced clients to buy more shares of bank-led IPOs in the after market to ensure new issues surged in their first few days of trading. Again, executives have denied the charges, but investors are well aware that Credit Suisse First Boston paid US$100-million last year to settle similar charges.

For a bank that saw third-quarter profits plunge 91% thanks to a slew of credit writeoffs, all the outstanding questions are creating an unappealing picture.

Golden Bear
(11/08/2002; 22:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 89109)
Gold N Rule (msg#: 89107)
Well said, your post reflects what I was thinking...

Also, Bush knows economically he has no power to avert what lies ahead, thus the diversionary romp into Iraq.

Cheers.
Gold N Rule
(11/08/2002; 22:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 89110)
corrected link to message89107
http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/mcherald/news/4473702.htmhopefully this one will work...
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 22:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 89111)
Market Wrap Up � Michael Hartman (sitting in for Puplava)
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

There are some very powerful forces at work in these two metals. I boil it down to the "paper shorts" versus the physical market. I don't plan on opening a big can of worms at this juncture. For now, suffice it to say that some of the big bullion banks became overzealous in the gold carry trade and are now stuck with enormous short positions in a rising market. They are trapped. I'm just patiently waiting for the BIG short squeeze!! The day the bullion banks are forced to cover their short positions, it should go down in the history books as the "Super Squeeze of 2003." Should be a fun ride.

If you take some time to study the supply/demand fundamentals of both gold and silver and see all that is developing globally from a geopolitical perspective/monetary viewpoint, the fundamentals are "pound the table strong" in favor of rising prices. As it stands, I don't think the metals will break out until the war begins in earnest. The powers that be will need a scapegoat when gold blows through the $330 barrier, silver blows through $5.00, and the dollar is down twenty percent. Someone or something will have to take the fall in the aftermath of the derivatives carnage. If my timing is correct, this would also leave enough room for another session of gold-bashing before the inevitable price explosion.


Black Blade: Actually a pretty good article tonight. The breakdown in the strong US dollar policy looks to continue and if that's the case we should be looking at pre-1996 prices for Gold ($380 to $420 an ounce at least) as the USD readjusts to the 80 to 90 level. Add in rising geopolitical tensions, deteriorating economic indicators, weaker equities markets, rising debt (government, corporate, and consumer), etc. and the price of Gold could rise substantially higher. Pity the Gold short and hedged Gold producer when paper fails to distract actual physical demand. Remember what happened when Goldcorp attempted to purchase a mere 1.2 million ounces of Gold on the open market. Just think of what will happen when someone with deep pockets demands the delivery of a few million ounces of Gold for diversification or mainstream investor attention swings toward precious metals. The game will then be exposed and the shorts (banks and hedged producers) will be begging with hat in hand for a bailout from the government (remember the S&L crisis?).

Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 22:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 89112)
Dollar Heads for Third Losing Week; U.S. Rate Cut Erodes Demand
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APcvOpBVfRG9sbGFy
Snippit:

New York, Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is heading for a third losing week against the euro and yen after the Federal Reserve's half-percentage point interest-rate cut drove some investors to higher-yielding investments outside the U.S. Signs a rebound in the world's largest economy is slowing has pushed down yields on Treasuries and dollar-denominated deposits, boosting demand for other currencies. The extra yield offered on three-month euro deposits over those held in dollars has jumped almost a quarter-percentage point this week. ``Investors can't get excited about being in the U.S. dollar'' with money market rates at about 1.25 percent, said Emeric Challier, who helps oversee 8.3 billion euros ($8 billion) at Societe Generale Asset Management in Paris. His firm is holding more European fixed-income relative to U.S. debt, he said.


Black Blade: Gee, pro-strong US dollar Sec. Paul O�Neill has been quiet lately. The silence is deafening. A weaker US dollar is necessary if the economy is to recover. Otherwise cheap imports will kill domestic manufacturers and US exports will be too expensive abroad. We have a long hard road ahead. Get prepared and hope that it all works out.

DOWNUNDER
(11/08/2002; 22:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 89113)
US GOV T CHEST THUMPING OVER IRAQ - - - -
The Bush administrations determination to invade Iraq when there is NO demonstrable need or proof to do so AT THIS POINT in time, WILL in my opinion ignite world opinion against America. Not a smart move.

It is disappointing to say the least to read earlier posts by right wing consevative (so called "christians") who support Bush & the coming war. They even "crow" about taking
the Arab oil & distributing it as if its OK to take someone
elses property. This born to rule mentality is going to get
a big shock. Better prepare to live small.

Now a good country to pick a fight with would be N. Korea.I
recommend it to the American Govt as a worthy opponent.It is a facist,totalitarian regime that kills & starves it's own people --the leader there makes Saddam look like mother Terresa.They also have (in defiance of the worlds opinion & American threats) real WMD including Nukes AND they would use them if attacked.

I would support an American strike against N.Korea but it wont happen any time soon.After all they might be able to fight back -they're not quite the 3th world army that Iraq has.Oh yeah & I almost forgot -- NO OIL!

How ANYONE can support a strike on Iraq to take over their
oil & deflect the voters gaze from the US economy is sad enough --when the supporters are smart enough to know the facts I hope they burn in hell.
Black Blade
(11/08/2002; 23:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 89114)
From The Mail Bag

Courtesy of Addison Wiggins (Daily Reckoning):

Low interest rates are supposed to be good for businesses - especially the housing business, where lower interest rates supposedly make buying a home cheaper for first-time buyers. Reality tells a different story. Housing prices are rising 10 times faster than income. Debt is mounting as consumers use equity to buy more gadgets and gizmos for overpriced homes. As housing prices escalate, the average home is unaffordable to the new or first-time homebuyer. With mortgages on the rocks, there's trouble for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They bring liquidity to the mortgage market. It's been estimated that the market for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's debt is larger than the entire U.S. Treasury market. With a burst in the housing bubble knocking at the front door, shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be in big trouble.


Black Blade: I sure am getting swamped with email from these guys but some of this info is interesting. As I have been saying, housing prices simply cannot keep rising faster than income for long. The Real Estate Bubble is about to pop � even the new interest rate cut won't stimulate much of a surge in housing purchases. Just how many homes does the average family need anyway? Even auto manufacturers are finding out that zero percent financing no longer brings in the customer. Sales of big-ticket items are beginning to slow. So what next? Another interest rate cut in the desperate hope that will bring out shoppers? It has not worked in Japan and it will not work here either. The consumer is tapped out. I see that discount retailers Wal-Mart, Target, Costco, etc. are warning and have weaker sales. This just as we approach the Holiday shopping season!!! Yep, it's going to get very ugly.
Mr Gresham
(11/08/2002; 23:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 89115)
Ed Bugos
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=17234Don't miss this Ed Bugos masterpiece -- on what makes gold money, and why it is impossible to get a fiat to perform similarly.
Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 00:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 89116)
Wall Street Sees Chance To Put Off Reforms
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25443-2002Nov7.htmlPitt's Departure, GOP Win Prompt Go-Slow Sentiment

Snippit:

BOCA RATON, Fla., Nov. 7 -- Harvey L. Pitt's resignation from the Securities and Exchange Commission, coupled with the Republican Party's success in the midterm elections, has emboldened some Wall Street executives to stiffen their resistance to strong reforms that only days ago seemed almost certain, industry and regulatory sources say.

Black Blade: It does not surprise me one bit. I think if Dubya has a sense of humor he could offer the job to Ralph Nader. Now that would get their attention. Hmmm�

Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 00:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 89117)
With economy in doubt, much hangs on U.S. consumer
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021107/markets_stocks_consumer_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - With the Federal Reserve using one of its last shots to shore up the economy and business investment still looking dodgy, a lot is hanging on the U.S. consumer to keep the recovery going. While the Fed's move on Wednesday to cut interest rates should encourage businesses to boost capital spending, rates are unlikely to fall any lower on home loans, credit cards, or other consumer credit. Since consumer spending is the mainstay of the U.S. economy, a sharp decline could spell problems to the economy and put a damper on the stock market. "The consumer has to continue to spend," said Clare W. Zempel, chief investment strategist for Robert W. Baird & Co. "Provided that the consumer doesn't collapse, we can get sustained moderate economic growth, perhaps even tilted to the above moderate side -- the consumer just has to continue to spend and have a positive attitude." Investors are concerned that rising unemployment will prompt a cutback in spending, and that other consumers may be close to exhaustion. Without that impetus to fuel corporate profits, the stock market could be a victim. Cracks already have appeared with U.S. auto sales falling for a second straight month in October to their lowest level in four years. Without auto sales, housing remains the last thriving sector in an otherwise sputtering economy.


Black Blade: Quite the dilemma � pass on the rate cut to the consumer to keep the poor sucker spending and hurt banksters bottom line, or do nothing hoping against hope that the consumer keeps spending while borrowing at the same rate while the banksters pocket the difference. Nahhh, the consumer is about tapped out and can't keep it up. Those who needed new autos already got them and if the banksters won't cut rates then the consumer won't refi their homes to keep spending. In fact home sales are supposedly weakening. It looks like the game is about over. Besides the consumer can see that his friends, family, coworkers and neighbors are getting "pink slips". So he is not likely to rush out and buy another house or take on a lot more debt. It might even be a stretch to believe that the consumer will spend nearly as much this year on holiday spending, so we are now hearing about earnings warnings and declining earnings at retailers and discounters. We are in the "end game".

Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 00:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 89118)
Home bankruptcies jump 8 percent
http://www.msnbc.com/news/831322.asp
Connection between huge mortgages, personal bankruptcies

Snippit:

Consumer bankruptcy filings of all kinds are at record levels, but Chapter 13 filings � the category that attracts most homeowners � are outpacing other consumer categories. They were up 8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, compared with a less than 3 percent increase in personal bankruptcies overall and a slight decline in the more-popular Chapter 7, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, a nonprofit group in Alexandria, Va. That rise comes as the total amount of mortgage debt outstanding has jumped 50 percent to almost $5.7 trillion in just the past four years. And bankruptcy experts say that is no coincidence.

Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Law School professor who specializes in consumer bankruptcy, says there is a direct connection between the massive levels of mortgage-related debt that homeowners have taken on and the rise in personal bankruptcies. Her latest research indicates that the number of homeowners in bankruptcy protection has risen "sharply" in the past year to a record 750,000, compared with about 450,000 five years ago. "I think we're only seeing the front end of this wave," she says.

A portion of today's huge mortgage debt is attributable to people who took out large first mortgages amid the recent low-interest-rate environment in order to buy ever-larger and more expensive homes. But a good chunk represents people who are juggling debts and who took advantage of today's easy refinancing and home-equity-loan opportunities to extract more cash from their house. "Homeowners are putting their most valued asset on the line trying to right themselves," says Prof. Warren. "They are playing with fire." Prof. Warren has been a critic of the proposed bankruptcy bill that is designed to make it harder for debtors to file Chapter 7 and force more of them into Chapter 13. The bill failed to pass during the last session of Congress. Congress.


Black Blade: Like we didn't see this coming. Of course I have no sympathy for these people. To put their homes at risk is purely irresponsible behavior. Credit card debt is rising at a very furious clip. Now if the proposed bankruptcy legislation is passed � which is now very likely, these people will be forced to cough up. The credit bubble is about to collapse another house � a house of cards.

Aristotle
(11/09/2002; 00:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 89119)
Mr. Gresham, in my opinion...
...someone should take old sentimental Ed out behind the woodshed and spank the idiocy outta him.

The prosecution rests upon the evidence already presented before the court, Your Honor.

G. Gys. --- A.
Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 00:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 89120)
The Fed's deflation dread
http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/07/news/economy/deflation/index.htm
This week's dramatic rate cut may have been made with an eye towards Japan.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates this week, the central bank's policy-makers confidently claimed that the economy would get moving again, eventually, but they also probably had a nervous eye on the 800-pound gorilla lurking in the corner -- deflation. The policy-makers said they made the bigger-than-expected cut because of recent signs of economic weakness, a "soft spot" in an otherwise upward growth trajectory. But without mentioning it, the Fed almost certainly had to have another worry, deflation, in mind, some analysts said. "The Federal Reserve is completely cognizant of deflationary tendencies in the system," said Van Hoisington, president and senior investment officer of Hoisington Investment Management. "We would not be surprised to see future aggressive policy moves by the Fed."

Black Blade: "Interesting Times" - That's quite a comparison table at the linked article.


"The United States is not Japan!!!" � Larry Kudlow

Sierra Madre
(11/09/2002; 00:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 89121)
The same old question: "Whither gold?"

Now we have the euro worth just a tiny bit more than the dollar. Interesting situation.

Let us suppose the dollar continues its trajectory downwards. And let us suppose that the price of gold continues to be hammered down every time it approaches $325 - which seems to be regarded as a kind of trigger point which cannot be allowed to establish itself, I guess because it heralds a breakaway up past $330 and beyond, into territory which cannot be easily beaten back, thus spelling disaster for the gold shorts.

That would mean that the price of gold in euros would have to be declining. Envision the euro, worth $1.05, $1.10, and $1.20 And envision gold remaining blocked at $320. That would mean, respectively, gold in euros at e304.76, e290, and e266.66.

Gold, already rather scarce from anecdotal evidence, is going to go DOWN this way, in Euroland? A lower price, will not stimulate further buying? Where will the supply come from?

At parity, gold is $320 and e320.

But, it seemeth to me, that things can go the other way, too. Let us suppose that gold remains at e320, while the dollar continues its decline.

Then, with gold stable at e320, the price in dollars, at $1.05/1 euro, will be $336; at $1.10/ 1 euro, it will be $352; at $1.20/ 1 euro, it will be $384.

What's it going to be, in the showdown dollar vs. euro?

Will Europeans take their cue from the dollar price? Why should they? I don't know the answer but intuitively, I feel that this parting of the ways will allow us to witness a new evaluation of gold, based on European valuations, not on the American bandleader's valuation, as has been the case for decades.

The ino.com graph for the dollar is not comforting for dollar prospects. Within a few months - say six - we may be at $1.10 dollars for 1 euro. Maybe sooner. Depends perhaps on the outcome of - what's that ridiculous name: "Enduring Freedom"?

Sierra



Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 00:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 89122)
Why are credit card rates so high?
http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/24/pf/banking/q_rates/index.htm
Low rates are everywhere except on your credit card. Here's why.

Snippit:

The average interest rate on credit cards has fallen about 2 percentage points since the Fed started its rate-slashing campaign in 2001. But, let's face it, the current average of 14.74 percent hardly screams "Free money!" And credit card rates are actually beginning to creep up again, said Robert McKinley, CEO of credit-card tracker CardWeb.com. "The trend this year has been to raise rates because of the increasing number of defaults among consumers," McKinley said. Defaults, in this instance, include not just personal bankruptcy, but also late payments and going over one's credit limit.


Black Blade: It's called "Loan Sharking".

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It's going to get ugly.
Sierra Madre
(11/09/2002; 01:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 89123)
Goldman Sachs closing its gold analysis department?

This is very strange and portends something big brewing, in my humble opinion. "Something wicked this way comes."

Rather reminds me of a Power closing its embassy, recalling the ambassador and repatriating its citizens.

In due course we shall understand the reasons for this extraordinary measure.

Sierra
Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 01:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 89124)
Falling futures prices ignore market fundamentals
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=160984
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Nov. 8 -- Energy futures prices continued to deteriorate Thursday in anticipation of the United Nations Security Council's approval Friday of a resolution stipulating no military action can be taken against Iraq without first consulting the UN. Market perceptions of increased cheating on production quotas among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have coupled with reduced apprehension of any immediate threat of war in the Middle East to drive down oil futures prices in recent weeks. "Oil is being moved out of the (Persian) Gulf to fill up producer-held storage closer to market. We suspect that much of OPEC's apparent increase is not actually making its way to refiners. Some is, as oil is also being moved to Asian refiners who have a certain sense of panic that their inventories are too low for normal times, let alone for a period of Middle East uncertainty."

However, Horsnell said, "US heating oil inventories have now passed beyond critical into dangerously low. They are too low for a normal US winter, let alone the lower-than-normal temperatures of late. There will be serious price spikes unless the weather warms up significantly and inventories increase very sharply." US oil inventories have increased recently, with refinery runs still depressed as the result of extended storms along the US Gulf Coast where those facilities are concentrated. However, oil stocks "are still 16.5 million bbl below normal levels, and the extent of the recent increase still fall short of what we would have expected given the refinery slow down," Horsnell said. "The oil market has then not slipped from tight to slack," he said. "If the supposed tide of OPEC oil fails to improve things quickly, then the fundamentals might cause a panic just as the geopolitics start to heat up and just as the speculative short-selling runs out of steam."

The December natural gas contract declined 2.3� to $3.83/Mcf Thursday on NYMEX, despite a report by the US Energy Information Administration of the early withdrawal last week of 27 bcf of gas from underground storage. "Year-over-year natural gas storage comparisons should now become increasingly supportive of prices," said Robert Morris, energy market analyst with Salomon Smith Barney Inc., New York. "After eliminating what was a more than 760 bcf year-over-year surplus at the beginning of April, storage levels are now below last year's levels heading into the winter." Moreover, he said, "Despite our assessment that industrial demand is still lagging 1 year ago by around 1.5 bcfd or more, North American natural gas production is projected to continue to decline. Consequently, with just normal temperatures in November and December, we project US storage could end this year at a year-over-year deficit of nearly 500 bcf."


Black Blade: It looks like we are being set up for another "energy crisis". One thing that the power industry has recently found out is that there are so few "dual-fuel" facilities left in operation that a short fall in either oil or gas for power generation will has a serious impact on power supply (can anyone hear say "California Energy Crisis"). Also, it should be noted that there have been a couple of hundred new NatGas fired power plants put online over the last couple of years, so the NG inventory in storage is actually quite small even though it is greater than the 5 year average. Also drawdowns are already occurring ahead of the "normal" winter heating season. A normal or colder than average winter will be a disaster. It just might be a long cold winter.

Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 01:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 89125)
US drilling activity falls to 26-week low
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=161065
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Nov. 8 -- US drilling activity this week dropped to the lowest level in 26 weeks with 826 rotary rigs working, down 28 from the previous week and well below the 1,010 units that were drilling during the same period a year ago, Baker Hughes Inc. officials reported Friday. Losses were reported in every major category. The number of US land rigs working dropped by 22 to 696 during the week. Offshore drilling was down 4 rigs to108 in the Gulf of Mexico and down by 5 to 110 rigs still working in US waters as a whole. Activity in inland waters dropped by 1 rig to 20. At least some of the loss likely was weather-related. Texas, where more than a week of rain flooded portions of the state, lost 15 rigs with 330 still working. Snow-blown Wyoming was down 6 rigs to 37. Louisiana, which caught some of the aftermath of rainstorms that blew through Texas, had 164 rigs working, 4 fewer than the previous week. Alaska's rig count was down 3 units to 7.


Black Blade: This too will impact energy supply. Drilling season is over and that means less new supply coming into the system and storage while decline rates accelerate. And just as we go into winter. Higher energy costs will kill any hope of an "economic recovery".

Belgian
(11/09/2002; 01:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 89126)
EXACTLY !!! Dearest Aristotle : # 89100
THE WORLD HAS BEEN CRIPPLED UNDER ITS OWN DOLLARS...w're all in the same boat !!!

Voila, as simple and straithforward as that !

We are honouring each other with pieces of paper that only increase in "debt" un-value. If only I could find a way to "picture" this swelling dollar-debt-berg for all to see and understand. At home, I do this with the monopoly game, but the players enjoy it time and time again. They dislike it when paper is taken away and the remaining confetti increases in value. It is definitely a contra-natural act.

And at the end it is GOLD and GOLD alone that can restore/restaurate this distructive appetite, of all men, for more and more of the same worthless confetti illusion.

Confiscation of the vast oil reserves of Iraq by the "dollar", will give it (the $) some little, temporary, credibility ...again. Confetti, representing something ad repetitum. Only to add some more, again. Permanent Depreciation is the one and only direction and method/system to expand for the modern homo economicus.

And it is not only the price of Gold that is capped. Many other tricks are common practice to hide and avoid the massive price-hyperinflation, that already should have been with us. How brilliant we are !?

What you discribe in #89100, Ari, is the main reason *WHY* the euro not yet recognized as an "alternatif". Each time the financial media touch on the euro subject, I notice some hostile/envious, undertone. Evidence for admitting w're all in that same sinking dollar boat and postpone the launch of rescue boat. The Golden alarm (with many others) have simply been switched off, because of the fearful noise they would produce.

Many thanks Ari for contributing permanently to mine/our deeper understanding of it all. Thank you Sir !

Black Blade
(11/09/2002; 02:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 89127)
Costs hit home for energy crisis - Californians have to pay billions more to bail out utilities
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/a/2002/11/08/MN192456.DTL&type=printable
Snippit:

In a pair of decisions Thursday, state regulators voted to shift as much as $6 billion in costs onto consumers over the next year to help pay for the continued fallout from California's energy crisis. The resulting cost to the average customer of California's two biggest utilities -- Pacific Gas & Electric Co. and Southern California Edison -- will be at least $270 in 2003, according to estimates Thursday. Californians already pay extra on their bills because of surcharges imposed during the state's energy crisis in 2001. The extra charges -- totaling $22.50 per month for the average household -- were to have been eliminated when they were no longer necessary. Now, as a result of Thursday's rulings, consumers will continue to pay them for the foreseeable future. Commissioner Carl Wood explained in an interview, the commission has come to believe that the only way to solve California's energy crisis is to have ratepayers bear the burden.


Black Blade: As I said long ago, the blunders made by the state's re-regulation scheme will be passed on to the taxpayer. The state continues to suffer worse than most with higher unemployment, higher taxes, and a weaker economy. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis.

Belgian
(11/09/2002; 02:44:06 MDT - Msg ID: 89128)
@ Sierra Madre (GS-closing Gold analysis dep.)
What if...It is realized that it is the CENTRAL BANKS (ECB/BIS-?) who are setting the price of Gold !? And that the private Gold-market has lost any grip on POG .

Official Goldreserves in the midst of the greatest currency transition ever ($ > �) ?

Would you remain into a market where you have no say or grip on prices ?

And wasn't it the WA (CBs) that caused the most significant price-move ?

It were the CBs who caused POG to decline and it were CBs who stopped the decline ! It is CBs who set the interest rates and decide on the appropiate currency exchange rates.
It is the CB who manages the creation of confetti.

The financial brotherhood goes where the action can be organized by themselves with or without political collusion.

POG is NOT moving in compensation for changing exchange rates...but, POG is moved to alter the exchange rates !!!
An enormous difference. The euro/Gold-concept/architecture !? That's how I see POG's behavior translated. Scarcely available Gold is "centrally", managed, price-wise instead of volume-wise.

POG is a tool to the ECB to set the �/$ exchange rate. People must keep on believing that the US$ is still the axis, around wich, POG is turning (compensating for $ decline). The offer/demand force for Gold the metal has been neutralized by official Goldreserves.
Gold will be rehabilitated as the monetary asset par excellence, without disturbing influences of the metal/paper boys ! What else than eliminate these "boys", could be the purpose of the "so called" CB Gold-sales/reshufflements !?

And "WHY" do you think so very little of substance has been said on those Gold-sales ? Yeah, right...nothing seems what it is, does it ?

If only the tiniest of fractions of these gigantic dollar oceans should dare to go for physical Gold...CBs would lose control over their ultimate tool > TOO SOON AND NOT AT THE APPROPIATE MOMENT !!! Keep the Gold *window* and (front)*door* closed for the masses. The Giants are cueing up at the backdoor of the CB-house.
GratefulForGold
(11/09/2002; 02:51:23 MDT - Msg ID: 89129)
I don't know?
As always, I hesitate to post (after my initial "first blush" of enthusiasm) my uneducated and somewhat naive thoughts on this "august forum," but sometimes I'm emboldened by some inner drive (or is it the wine?). Thank those of you who must cringe at reading (if you do) my grade school level of understanding and tolerating my meager efforts. I've put forth more effort this past year to educate myself (thanks to discovering PMs, which led me to economics, which led me to politics, etc.) than I have in my entire life and I am SO grateful for the guidance I have received.

One reason that I continue to post my sophomoric (not even that � kindergarden?) two cents is that there are probably many like me who are lurking that are new. While I don't want to disrupt this forum by opening it up to bombardment of off-the-wall posters (you've done admirably well in containing/maintaining the content and quality of the posts here) I do want to make those like me feel welcome and free to post, even if their posts seem inadequate to them!

So, that said, my current thoughts on the interest rate cut:

I perceive these factors: the cut accelerates the downturn in US$, which the administration, if it has any brains, wants. I may be projecting intelligence in their motive here � that's possible. A weaker US$ is necessary on many levels but the ramifications on the other side are also huge (which is why people have been saying that AGreenspan was between a rock and a hard place in going either direction).

I'm suspecting that, for reasons (or the ultimate outcome) I don't understand, the Fed reduced rates fully knowing (or wanting?) the US consumer to keep spending and going further in debt. Big ticket items are starting to slow � cars, houses (how much mortgage finance new debt is to actually BUY a house and how much is refi that takes cash out to spend elsewhere?). I suspect that most refi monies received in the last month or two were not even spent to REDUCE credit card debt but rather were spent continuing to live (probably in life styles that need to disappear but people don't make those changes willingly). Hopefully some of that refi money has been spent on necessities like stockpiling food rather than a fancy restaurant tab.

I don't know why I keep going back to the consumer in this scenario � but one thing I read long ago (relatively) keeps ringing true in my ears: (paraphrasing) The US administration keeps taking action in relation to its constituency (the US public) and fails to act as the WORLD�S RESERVE CURRENCY. (Was that FOA??) Is this still happening? I know no other country is in the difficult position to having to economically please both its home base and the world, but maybe that is one advantage the Euro will have over the US$: The Euro is a combination of countries with a different type of "constituency" and can take a broader view and stance. The US, and our pathetic political system that has the politicians prostituting themselves to big business, media, telling the people what they want to hear in order to get elected or re-elected � the US acts as though its main obligation is to the US citizenry (which it is and should be in many ways). But, when it boils down to the US$ and economics, and that the US$ is the global, reserve currency of the entire world...I think the US government should broaden its scope, be unpopular with the US public and try to educate them to some of the "realities" of life (which is going to happen anyway...but that kind of change is always better accepted when it is done willingly rather than forced upon one). I don't know if it was the US who actually set out to become the world's reserve currency (or some "master planning") but it IS, and the US has failed for decades to act accordingly. It just keeps pleasing the US constituency and providing them with the riches of the world at discount.

Our government hasn't even given us a chance to grow because they don't trust our intelligence (we're only "fodder units," mind you) to be able to accept the truth of the global situation and deal with it. Instead, they keep "playing" us and we keep pretending to believe it and the game goes on until harsh reality slaps us in the face. Or, more correctly, deals us a lethal blow. Which it will, probably very soon.

OK � I accept that no politician speaks the truth. They can't, and get elected (which probably says more about not getting the vested-interest backing and financing in order to get elected, rather than a constituency that rejects hearing the truth and accepting it). So, where do we go from here? Our president is only a politician that made it to the Big Game. And, in my limited understanding of our current one, he hasn't too many original thoughts so he relies heavily on his closest advisors (and he is very intolerant of dissent...to the extent of having small town newspaper personnel fired for unflattering or opposing opinions). That's where I begin to shudder. I think he's ignorant of practically everything except "telling them what they want to hear, in a good ole� boy fashion". If he has intelligence, I firmly believe it's all directed to cronyism (his "advisors") and furthering his father's and grandfather's (Prescott Bush, who made his fortune dealing in arms during WWII) (and probably those before them but I haven't studied the Bush family tree) instruction. In my book, the man's main talent is how to con the people and sell whatever is his latest product (which, unfortunately for us, is the fate of the US). I've seen enough to believe that those Saturday Night Live parodies were based on fact, not just an easy laugh. We have a driven man, with a script that many want to hear (after all, scare the American public by having some "war devastation" actually occur IN THE US, ON OUR SOIL, and we're ready to bomb the hell out of the rest of the world to get the SOB who has the audacity to do that to such a peace loving country who much of the world (muslim) resents because we love "peace and freedom.") (BTW, I am SO sick of hearing how they resent our "freedom" and that's why they hate us!) At the same time as the public is roused to go after those terrorists, the administration manages to sneak in a few freedom curtailing new laws or Executive Orders (Homeland Security), it allows a few of its energy buds to get a few new contracts, get its federal judges appointed and approved, etc. Give me a break -- if anyone thinks the current administration gives a rat's about the American public, they are in for a very rude awakening!

War is a GREAT diversion (it hides a multitide of "sins" (or what they don't want you to look at)). Until it finaly HITS HOME.

I'm sorry for this tirade. BUT, if we Americans want to survive, we need to start thinking outside of what WE WANT. We have been so spoiled for so long that we actually believe (because we want to) our own (politicians') hype!

GET GOLD (AND SILVER FOR EVERY DAY PRACTICALITY) NOW! Ignore the hype. Don't buy the BS. Protect yourself...do you think they will??

OK, Tacitus, you know where I stand in my political beliefs! Unfortunately, I know of no Democrat politician that I think any more highly of, so I can't argue "politics." I am not in favor of the "democratic - socialist" programs of free lunches. Nor am I in favor or policies that favor the upper 1% of the public ("cronies") which seems to be the current administration's bent. Unless, of course, our PM holdings should ever catapult US into that category! Ha! Ho!.

Sorry for my rambling...that seems to be who I am!
Golden Bear
(11/09/2002; 03:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 89130)
Goldman Sachs Gold desk link... what a load of BS from GS...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Securities%20Firms%20News&b1=ad_bottom1&br=blk&tp=ad_topright&T=wealthstory.ht&s=APcviCRV_R29sZG1hGoldman's New York Gold Mining Equity Analyst McConvey Fired
By Claudia Carpenter


New York, Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman, Sachs & Co. gold mining analyst Daniel McConvey was fired after five years on the job as the securities firm halted research on the industry amid a slump in business on Wall Street.

``I was a casualty of downsizing,'' McConvey, 47, said in a telephone interview from his home in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey. Goldman spokesman Ed Canaday in New York said the company has dropped coverage of 12 gold-mining companies that McConvey covered, including Newmont Mining Corp., the world's biggest gold producer.

McConvey joined Goldman in 1997 after three years at Lehman Brothers Inc., and before that he was a comptroller at Barrick Gold Corp. in Toronto. In May, McConvey said gold would have a hard time extending its 17 percent gain this year. Gold prices in New York are now up 16 percent for this year, trading at around $320 an ounce.

A war with Iraq is gold's best chance of climbing further, and even then it probably wouldn't go much over $350 an ounce, McConvey said.

``The problem with $500 gold is there's so much scrap in the world'' that any price above $350 would probably lead investors to sell some of their holdings rather than buy more, he said.

``You're going to need central bank buying to support gold prices significantly over $350, and at this point I think the chances of that are low,'' McConvey said.
a nation of one
(11/09/2002; 04:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 89131)
deliberate actions

Deflation increases the proportion of loans that cannot be repaid. During bankruptcy procedings, property changes hands. In a fiat currency society, property has some advantages which currency does not have. And if these loans were repaid, all that would change hands would be fiat currency. Therefore deflation has an appeal to a certain type of strategy. Deflation is used for the purpose of causing tangible assests to change hands. Combined with the fact that all borrowing is inherently destructive to a society -no matter what the interest rate, the amount borrowed, or the size of the economy- deflation and inflation offer those in positions to control them a substantial opportunity to enrich themselves and others like themselves, at the expense of the economic system overall, and at the expense of the vulnerable public within that system.

a nation of one
(11/09/2002; 04:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 89132)
el dollarini
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12&w=1&t=l&a=200
Looks like the dollar is about to make up its mind.
mas
(11/09/2002; 05:44:32 MDT - Msg ID: 89133)
Nation of one
Looks like making up your mind means falling off a cliff. Wow what a snap shot. Next week should look look like???????
Got gold?
Hipplebeck
(11/09/2002; 07:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 89134)
(No Subject)
What most people don't understand, is that the dilemma for the US is that dollar usage must grow or the whole system dies. The dollar will have to be forced onto people if they will not take it voluntarily. That is how a ponzi scheme works. If it does not grow exponentially, it dies.
No matter what the US or the UK media say, The US and UK have not gotten endorsement for attacking Iraq. The resolution that has passed in the UN says that if Iraq is in violation, then the security council will meet again to decide what action is to be taken. Bush and Blair lost to Chiraq and Putin.
The great whore of Babylon files: If the US is dependent on foreign capital so much, and there is a very large growth in asset backed security sales to keep the mortgage refinance game going, doesn't this mean that foreigners are buying ownership to US homes? Who really owns the title when the mortgage is bundled, securitized and sold?
Now that the republicans are fully in control, I expect that all the reforms that are supposed to take place to make America's business honest again will be a sham.
It is a total hoax when a corporation is fined for wrongdoing. It is a way to let the criminals off scott free while having the appearance of doing something. All they are doing is stealing from the stockholders. It's an outrage, but the common US citizen is powerless to do anything. We count on our leaders in politics and business to be real leaders, take responsibility and keep an honest game going, but it is not the case. The worship of money has corrupted all.
CoBra(too)
(11/09/2002; 07:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 89135)
Excerpt from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin
"Data released today by the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) on positions in the global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market at the end of June 2002 point to a further acceleration of activity in the first half of the year." Total OTC derivative positions increased at a 30% annualized rate during the first half to $127.6 Trillion (up 83% since June 1998!). Interest rate derivatives expanded at a 32% rate to $90 Trillion (up 112% since 6/30/98), while currency derivatives increased at a 16% rate to $18.1 Trillion. Equity derivatives grew at a 35% rate to $1.9 Trillion, with gold derivatives increasing at a 42% rate to $279 billion."

The explosive pace of gold derivative growth clearly high-lights the desperate and untenable position some bullion banks have dug themselves into. Small wonder that rumors of potential major gold derivative losses surface with renewed fury. Denials without substance may become a bit frayed and eventually may have opposite effects.

Time's a running out - cb2

@CM - thanks, my friend for your kind words the other day. Will be in touch later.
Blurrmoon
(11/09/2002; 08:17:48 MDT - Msg ID: 89136)
@ Hipplebeck
Amen, brother. Agreed.
Buena Fe
(11/09/2002; 08:33:53 MDT - Msg ID: 89137)
Hipplebeck
Spot on Cap'
Cavan Man
(11/09/2002; 08:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 89138)
Hipplebeck
Bravo dear brother. You have freedom!!
Tacitus
(11/09/2002; 08:51:08 MDT - Msg ID: 89139)
Sorry Guys
Dear Golden Bear, GoldNRule, GratefulForGold, and anybody else who wants to get into the fray,

Didn't mean to get people upset. I'm afraid I violated one of Mr. Kosares' rules: not to promote any particular political party. So I will try to be more careful in the future.

First, I do not fancy myself a Keynesian, rather a Hazlittian in process. However, I was looking for the strongest argument the Keynesian's would have for doing what they do, in this case lower interest rates. We can all make straw arguments on behalf of our intellectual opposites and then blow them down. I was looking for their strongest argument so that after addressing it I could be a better Hazlittian. But you didn't give me one. That's alright. But I am trying to learn by this exchange not build up my ego.(and maybe even share a little info.) Last night I had a conversation with one of my neighbors. She is an older lady dependent upon the interest she obtains from her savings. She expressed her dismay at the low rates. Now I have come to see more clearly something I should have thought of before. The lowering of rates takes money, or income from those who have and thus they are being "taxed" again and also they will have less to spend thus keeping them from participating in the market. I think we can conclude therefore, that although there may be some gains in sales thanks to lowering the interest rates there will also be loses, perhaps even a net loss. That is where I am with this topic. Still looking for insights though.


As far as politicians go, I believe there are people of good character in every party, just like I believe there are a lot of good CEOs etc. in the business sector. I wish we could avoid the temptation to villianize the Bushes and Gores of the world. I think the vast majority of politicians have good motives. They want to find and impliment the right policies for our financial world. They just have different proposals of how to realize these common goals. Civil discourse is the key to working together to put this country on the right path, whether that be morally speaking or fiscally speaking. Otherwise we may one day degenerate into another Palestine/Israel scenario.

One last thing, I have only one agenda, and that is to share what I believe to be the truth and be corrected where I am wrong and to learn as much as I can from my fellow philosophers that are on this ship with me.

All the best,
Tacitus


Belgian
(11/09/2002; 09:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 89140)
@ Golden Bear : GS nonesense
Indeed, fellow Goldmeister, GS's explanations are nothing less than idiocy. But they are definitely "Gold" insiders and belong to the inner core of the gold-club !
So many stocks "decimated" and the handful of goldminers left, on average, trippled their value. But this infinitesimal fraction of the Gold-business isn't of a nature, anymore, to arouse with billions of dollars.
Available physical Gold has become very scarce and is massively derivatized. Soon, the financial brotherhood cannot do business with Gold anymore, under whatever form that is. The Gold market is in the process of being dehydrated (decline in liquidity) in comparaison with what we experienced in the hyper-liquid, stock markets, during the past decades. In simplier words : how do you move so much confetti in such a tiny small Gold market ? Worse, how do you get out of it ?

When there is less and less physical gold available, because of declining offer in proportion to demand, the paper circus encounters more and more difficulties to remain liquid. A renewed physical Gold market is imposing itself. That will happen as Another pointed out.

At the present POG, the 3.000 tonnes of forward sold underground Gold has certainly reached its limits. Add to this the plunder of some private and official Gold stocks and it becomes obvious that the available physical is running short. The bullion banks are outplayed by the prolonged very low POG.

So, why should CBs have to buy Gold when there is already a shortage. This situation is our best guarantee that when POG explodes, no one in the possession of physical Gold will be inclined to sell one nanogram. These things happen with publicly trade stocks of excellent quality, also. Zero liquidity because the ultimate holders don't want to sell an excellent business (valuable). Than this stock is dispised by those who weren't able to accumulate it. Common sense, don't you think so ?

Can we therefore conclude that the best way to exterminate papergold contracts is by drying up the market with practically unmoved price-behavior ? This pattern co-incides suspiciously well with the management of the $/� exchange rate.
Gold N Rule
(11/09/2002; 09:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 89141)
450,000 or More Protest War In Italy!!!
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=574&ncid=721&e=4&u=/nm/20021109/wl_nm/italy_globalisation_dc
snippit:

European Anti-War Rally Streams Through Florence
20 minutes ago

By Luke Baker

FLORENCE, Italy (Reuters) - More than 450,000 anti-war protesters from
across Europe marched through this Italian Renaissance city on Saturday,
denouncing any U.S. plans to attack Iraq.

Fired with anti-American sentiment and angered by
a tough new U.N. resolution to disarm Iraq,
European activists joined forces in a carnival
atmosphere and marched together singing
Communist anthems and blowing shrill whistles.
"Take your war and go to hell," one of the colorful
banners read. "No to war," said another.

The rally marked the climax of the first European
Social Forum, which brought together
anti-globalisation campaigners from across the
continent for four days of talks and concerts.

The forum was planned months ago, with tens of thousands of participants
from dozens of countries stretching from Portugal to Russia. Delegates
discussed topics from debt-reduction to support for the Palestinian uprising.

But organizers said the march was given added relevance by Friday's
unanimous vote in the U.N. Security Council, which gave Iraq a last chance to
disarm or face almost certain war.

Authorities estimated more than 450,000 protesters were on the streets, and
people were still streaming in from a fleet of buses and trains hired for the
occasion.

Organizers said the crowd could swell to more than a million people, making
it one of the biggest rallies ever seen in Italy.


COMMENT: If this reflects global sentiment to America then "Made In America" may become a dirty word and our goods could be boycotted and instead of "As The World Turns" It'll
be.."As The Dollar Falls" .......
Mr Gresham
(11/09/2002; 09:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 89142)
GfG
You are a treasure!
Gold N Rule
(11/09/2002; 10:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 89143)
DEFLATION: THE CLEAR AND GROWING DANGER
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/nov2002/nf2002118_7388.htmDEFLATION: THE CLEAR AND GROWING DANGER

snippit:


So far, the Fed has been the economy's stalwart supporter. Chairman Alan Greenspan has convinced his colleagues to
aggressively slash the fed funds rate, by 4.75 percentage points in 2001 and an additional half-percentage point this year.
U.S. fiscal policy has buttressed the economy, too, as a $250 billion federal budget surplus in 2000 was transformed into a
$160 billion deficit in fiscal 2002.

Still, fiscal-policy management has been largely inept. The Bush Administration's tax cut, largely skewed toward the wealthy
in future years, has done little for the economy. Its economic summit in Waco, Tex., was a joke. And both Congress and the
White House have failed to deal forcefully with the recent spate of corporate-accounting scandals.

TOO HIGH A PRICE. Deflation is still considered a remote possibility by many economists and policymakers. But remember
President Herbert Hoover, who famously forecast in 1930 that, "prosperity is just around the corner." At the time, his was a
reasonable bet, since the economy had declined in only seven of the years from 1869 to 1929. Only once during that time
did business activity contract for two consecutive years.

Of course, it turned out to be a disastrous forecast for the country -- and a mistake that eventually cost him the nation's
highest elected office. Now, like then, if America's leaders underestimate the prospects for deflation, the price the nation must
pay in terms of economic damage would be too high. Deflation is a fearful risk. Washington should pull out the stops now to
prevent its emergence.


COMMENT: LET'S SEE THE TYPE OF SUPERFICIAL ANTICS WASHINGTON USES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY'RE HELPING THE ECONOMY
silvercollector
(11/09/2002; 10:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 89144)
There will be war
http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?id={55CF529F-E332-4E04-BD38-08623406AEE8}"Bush's domestic victory is a foreign victory"

Bush now calls the shots regarding Iraq. An Iraqi minister has already claimed some of the resolutions will be impossible to acheive.
CoBra(too)
(11/09/2002; 10:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 89145)
@Gold N Rule - Re: War in Italy
GNR - it's not against the US as such and certainly not against Americans.

Though, as an Austrian I see it as a protest against globalization, NWO and hegemonial and imperial demands on the understanding of being the last surviving superpower and the reserve currency - paid up by the poor getting poorer.

Considering that the opposition first formed in Seattle in a meaningful way - it may be time to reflect on what caused this opposition?

Globalization didn't really help Argentina, SE Asia nor Black Africa - The helpful? hand-outs of the IMF and/or the World Bank only meant governance and enslavement for countries having accepted the status quo! only helped the US! ... and that's a fact!

It helped the status quo of the US to keep inflation in check by pricing every product in (future's hedonistic markets)of the gobal reserve currency - albeit the fact that the country has the largest trade, budget and overall deficits in history.

The empire of debt on every walk of life, while still having its great capacity of R&D, military supremacy and pricing power may be on its way to meet the destiny of prior empires.

Killing gold ... will have its repercussions ...

Musings from a pro US -Austrian - cb2

Cometose
(11/09/2002; 11:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 89146)
Grateful for Gold Post 89129
Would you please now tell us how you Really feel!!!!

I agree....Like hearing your posts....

We all learn by releasing....it enables our brains more sythesis of informaiton when we post.

GOLD IS GOING TO BE......

COMETOSE
Gandalf the White
(11/09/2002; 11:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 89147)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
This is NOT an UPDATE -- but, something far more important !
I have been reading the "Rule 7" paragraphs and FOUND THEM TO BE GOLDEN !!! See if you can agree.
I had been thinking about writing my story about long ago in the GOLD at $35 an ounce era -- BUT, when I read all these postings --- I just reconsidered !!
<;-)
===
This relates to the POG CONTEST "Rule 7", which states ---
"AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!"

-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

==============
Following are SELECTED RESPONSES ("Disclaimer" -- These randomly selected posts may have been sorted for "ease of reading", education, and "impact" by an opinionated and biased person.) <;-)

---
Crash (11/4/02; 17:29:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 88753)
Gold in the late 1960's vs. gold today . . . was it the same?

In 1969, gold was trading in the low $40's after having been capped for 35 years at $35 oz. This was a significant breakout but was recognized by very few analysts. Owning bullion was still not legal for U.S. citizens. The only way to buy gold was to purchase numismatic coins.

After searching the yellow pages, I located a small coin shop in downtown Los Angeles run by a young man (19 years old) who had been a coin collector most of his life. All of my limited assets were invested in sovereigns and U.S. $20 coins. My motivation was to preserve the value of what I had accumulated up to that time. I had a very negative view of the stock market and little confidence in banks. Gold seemed to be the lowest risk alternative. The differences between then and now are great. However, there are important similarities. Then, as now, there was no way to absolutely predict the future. Then, as now, the desire to preserve the "value" of assets was a strong motivator. My analytical process was to explore and consider all the alternatives and then choose the one that seemed to provide the lowest risk. Gold rose to the top of the list in 1969. Although today's environment is different, the process of elimination once again favors gold. Today, the greatest difference is in the wealth of information and opinions available and gold's price history over the past 30 years. Since the internet and this forum have introduced me to like-minded souls, I am aware that favoring gold today is not as contrary as it was 30 years ago. The detailed analysis, interesting discussion and meteoric price projections somewhat inhibit my enthusiasm. But, times have changed. Today's case for gold is different. It is not a weaker case, but it is a different case.
---
Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 88957)
Just for fun, I performed a little present worth analysis to determine the compounded interest rate between Gold priced at $35/oz in 1969 and gold at $320/oz in 2002. It works out to an annual compounded interest rate for n = 33 years at approximately 6.93%. Now, if the historical average PE ratio for the S&P 500 works out to be about 13.5, the reciprocal of that average ratio represents an average annual equity return of approximately 7.41%.

So lets see, if I bought some gold in 1969 and buried it in my back yard for 33 years, I would have made just about as much if I played the stock market for 33 years. But there's one big glaring difference though. In order to realize a 7.41% annual return in equities, I would need to diligently learn about, apply, and focus intensely on, things like: Technical analysis, geo-political conditions, accounting practices, monetary policy, fiscal policy, market dynamics, corporate dynamics, CEO integrity, quarterly reports, trade imbalances, credit quality, etc, etc, etc. Day after day after day after day.

You know, a great way to create a keen sense of focus in rats is to throw one into a deep glass container and fill it half way up with water.

As far as I'm concerned, our fiat dollar, especially the one created in 1971, has created a populous of keenly focused rats�..er, I mean investors. After 31 years, its truly impressive how much effort they expend to keep their heads above water and how quickly they can react to the slightest perceived change in surface conditions.

Unfortunately, many physical gold advocates, even though they don't need to worry about drowning themselves, have had to jump in that glass container as well - primarily out of their social need to help those who are slowly drowning. They had to jump in because the only way to catch what's left of a drowning persons attention span is to engage them from within their own paradigm. Maybe, just maybe, or so the gold advocates� hopes go, these highly focused, narrow minded investors have a small piece of mindspace left where they can still be receptive to the idea that life is better on dry land. That they can still hear that it's not only better because you can quit worrying about drowning, it's better because you're free to explore an endless variety of new paradigms - including those lofty realms of love, beauty and truth. Heck, they might even find enough time to start wondering about radical concepts like meaning and purpose. And if that happens, well, don't dwell on the past, everyone has regrets. Philosophically speaking, we all have to tread water for a time before we can find our own way out of the glass jar.

Well, so much for utopia. The truth is, there are very few gold advocates in the water for the right reasons, and far too many people drowning for those advocates to effect any real sea change. In other word's: "you can't be told about the matrix, you've got to see it for yourself" and their just aren't enough red (gold) pills to go around.

Back to the subject at hand. In 1969 the water depth was not quite over our heads and for most, the distinction between gold and dollars was not a significant one. Today, in 2002, we are just about exhausted, death is near, and the idea that our nation can reaffirm the precepts necessary to "insure domestic tranquility" exists only within that most basic of human traits � hope.
--
barnaclebob (11/07/02; 09:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 88983)
Back when gold was $35 per oz. a home cost $10,000, a car $2,000, and the average hourly wage was $1.50 per hour. Inflation has grown all prices X10.
The average home today is $100,000+, a car $20,000+ and the average wage is $15.00+ per hour, it's all times ten.

Gold is really a true value using the X10 equation. The equation indicates a POG @ $350, yet we can buy it at the discounted price of $315 - $325. That is until the forces of inflation/deflation and/or fear of systemic economic failure forces capitulation resulting in safe haven demand. When the financial system capitulates, gold will prove the only safe "port of call" as paper burns, X20 will only be a beginning......

Don't wait till the ship leaves port!
BB
---
BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 88734)
Trading gold in the late 1960's was difficult because it had not yet opened up to the general public but, at $35/oz is was a fantastic buy, even considering the greater buying power of the dollar at that time. I think that it is still way undervalued, which is why I, a person of limited financial means, am holding physical PMs. The silver that I hold I purchased for less than that which I held in the mid 1970's, which means that it is now a hugely fantastic buy. My holdings in the mid 1970's went to over 1000% of where I got in..what a deal! Probably more so than the late 60's, the gold that is left to extract from the earth is, of course, more and more limited, and more and more expensive to get out...IT CAN ONLY GO UP...we all know the manipulating that is happening, largely, I think, to secure the election tomorrow for TPTB. They can only hold on for so long and my figure, my guess is based on the assumption that the charade will start to fall apart after the election is secured...if it is a big win for the Repubs, they wont care what the citizens think, if it is a win for the Dems, the markets will be allowed to reflect the horrible shape of our economy in order to make it look like it is a reflection of lack of confidence in Democratic control...so let's see what the next 48 hours looks like...at any rate..the real time of reckoning is NIGH, as opposed to the late 60's..not long wait (is that 30 words)(hard for me to introduce myself in 30 words)
BlackBart
---
MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 89069)
Yes, buying gold now is nearly identical as buying gold in the late 1960's. Gold always has been and always will be an international currency and source of wealth. Regardless of the price that gold is, it will always be a valuable commodity to own and nothing can change that. A nation's currency can rise and then fall, but gold is forever.
--
goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 89063)
With the tide of paper currencies and manipulated derivatives far outpacing the advance in the gold price from $35 in the sixties and with the $ now on shaky ground due to the vast current account deficit, budget deficit, and Fed support operations for the banks (mandated by such a weak debt laden economy ), the gold price at $322 is a far, far better deal for savers than that which existed in the late sixties. Go physical gold!
--
Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 88973)
Buying gold now at $320 is exactly like buying gold then at $35. The same perception change is in the works. Wealth is being redefined. We all need a reference point when discussing something, and for now, people are using the US dollar as the measuring rod for worth all over the world. It has replaced the gold standard.

When the perception changes that the dollar is not serving this role fairly, then alternatives are considered. People naturally return to gold because of it's historical role as the surest measurement of wealth. As the consititution says, the dollar is just an adjective describing a certain amount of precious metal. Every so often, people delude themselves into thinking they are gods and can control everything. This virtual reality world of delusion always ends when it is realized that just because you make up some game that fools everyone for a while doesn't mean you have changed the laws of nature, or physics. The world needs ANOTHER way of measuring wealth and cost and value. When people stop defining things in terms of dollars and begin using something like grams of gold, then we will have an economic system that is not subject to these games and manipulations.
---
NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 89020)
Is the situation for gold today the same as what it was in the 1960's? I am not sure it is. Much of the world (gold) production came from South Africa then, nowadays production is more widely spread around the globe. Central Banks were generally buyers of gold then but many now seem to want to get rid of the yellow metal. The dollar looks like it is going to take a heavy fall and this is positive for gold as well as the falling worldwide production. I think that the gold price will go up but fear that the "powers that be" will have some horrible scheme to puncture its rise. I hope I am wrong!
--
Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 89012)
On the one hand, Yes, the price of gold today is economically similar to the price of gold in the '60's at $35/oz. On the other hand, the ability to own gold is so much easier now, not to mention legal for Americans, that No, there is no comparision. On the other hand, when my good friend Lazar Wolf finally did get married in the early 70's in America, he bought 2 gold rings, each 1oz of gold, to get around the american ownership issue. Actually, thats on his hand. If I were a rich man I could have done the same.
Gold. Its Tradition. ( and cheap at $$$$ 321.0 $$$$ )
Tevye
--
a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 88999)
Buying gold today is like buying gold at 35 per ounce in the late 1960's in that there is great potential for advancement in price. The price has been too low too long. Inflationary pressures have been building and have not yet been released or realized. Also, the majority of the public are unaware of the potential. Therefore it is much the same. We are presently in the very early stages of a long-term bull market in gold, and this one, like the previous one, is recognized only by a few. That's us, fellows. In coming years we will look back on this and it is likely that we will have real reason to congratulate ourselves and each other. I chose $321.40, instead of say, $327.10, because I think a gradual move upward is both more reasonable to expect, and more indicative of strength, volatility being an indicator not of value but of contoversy. Also, if I say that it can't possibly go to $327.10 by Tuesday, for some reason I feel that it will be more likely to do so.
--
auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 88950)
Just like the late 60's the same cartel is managing the price, the same banks (some names have been changed or merged)are in trouble, the same countries are going broke or in trouble, and the same Fed, BIS, and IMF are trying to but the mess back together, fix the problem they helped create. If they fix the problem like the last time (we can only hope),I have little doubt the pundits that talk > $1000 gold will be right, and as many have said here before, the late comers, still licking their wounds from the dot com era will be lining up to buy gold at their local bank or coin dealer.
----
Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 88908)
As for buying gold now as opposed to buying it in 1960 at $35/oz. i dont know personally, was a young boy. however i would conjecture that to buy today is better as an investment and as a safe harbor. there are more people nowadays you know. gold supply has not grown proportionally. if looking at the price of stamps, inflation is 1,000+% so the cost basis is similar i guess. if looking at the price of gas, inflation is only about 600-700%. the extremely interesting times we have been in since the civil war are only more interesting now, as they will be even more interesting in the nearer future. buying gold now is like buying amazon.com before its' bubble i believe (imho).
--
NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 88906)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No, much more like a bargain. Today's political and economic forces are going to push (unwillingly) the price of gold to unknown heights not even seen during the early -80. I also think that gold is going to be valued and traded in other currencies than US dollar. It (gold) will become one of the weapons in the future economic warfare of this planet � used by Asian and ME countries in a joint attack on several western countries. By then � in the west - it will be regarded disloyal to own gold.
NEMO
--
drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 88893)
Gold is more valuable to have under your mattress now than it was at $35.00 in the late 60's. Our government and our populace is much more corrupt and we need something real and of value in our possession. Trust only in G-d, your family, and knowlege.
--
Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 88892)
Gold was still "remembered" as real currency by vastly more of life's pilgrims when still priced at $35 per ounce.These forums indeed help spread the word to new generations--but Joe Sixpack by and large doesn't have a clue yet. He will regretfully learn.
--
Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 88883)
Is buying gold now similar to the late '60's?
NO!...Back then, the Dollar had an officially sanctioned Gold value of $35, nowadays Gold, in all it's manifestations, has a "freemarket" Dollar value of (say) $320.
The difference is profound fellow goldhearts. The former situation (60's) provided for a comparison, whereas the latter does not. Today, valuing Gold in Dollars (or ANY currency) is akin to ascribing a value of 4 Gallons to a Kilo of Wheat ie: more information is needed.
Gold-----Priceless Today.
--
Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 88853)
The ease of buying gold at $35 an oz. in the 60' wins hands down . Sure there has been inflation in almost everything we come in contact with but the powers behind the screen still have the deck and they don't intend to give it up. $320 gold is a lot harder to come by than $35 gold was then .
--
Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 88851)
Yes, buying gold now is exactly the same as buying it at whatever price it brought in the 1960's. As it is the same as buying/accumulating it in 1860, 1760, 1660, 1560, 1460... You get the idea! Owning gold always makes sense. Over the course of history and time it's value always exceeds it's price
--
Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 88848)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

First, if you look at the chart that RobotGuy posted (#88830), it clearly indicates that the 60's were nothing like today's stock market and gold market. $320 gold today will soon look much cheaper than $35.00 in the 60's especially if FOA is proves correct. Cheers to all!
FROSTY
--
HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 88843)
Gold buying now as compared to buying GOLD at $35.00 an ounce in the 1960s???

Gold buying in the 1960s was a sideline game/speculation/coin collector pastime activity! Gold buying TODAY is REQUIRED PRESERVATION OF ECONOMIC STATUS/WEALTH! With a multiply of 100 potential expansion, today's price equates to FIRESALE prices !!!!!!!
----
silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 88841)
Buying gold at ~$325 today IS LIKE buying gold in the 60s for $35 because:

* Price has been artificially manipulated for a number of years (London Gold Pool in the 60s, Bullion bank leasing & producer hedging today)

* Globe is experiencing a wave of political instability (Vietnam and nuclear standoff in 60s, terrorism and war on Iraq today)

* Runaway monetary inflation (Vietnam war spending in 60s, financial crises in 90s and 00s requiring massive infusions today)

However there are major differences as well:

* US was the largest creditor nation in the 60s; now it is the largest debtor nation

* Corporate debt in the 60s was very high by contemporary standards; Corporate debt today is MUCH higher

* Consumer debt in the 60s was virtually non-existent; consumer debt today is at all-time highs

* In the 60s, the US was the dominant economic growth story, with Germany and japan as the upstarts. Today, US is the dominant financial growth story, while real economic growth has shifted almost entirely to China.

* In the 60s, the US still supplied most of its own oil needs. Today the US is overwhelmingly dependent on foreign sources of oil. Meanwhile the importance of oil in the economy has not been reduced (despite all our fabulous technology)

* Today, a fiat dollar run amok is the world's reserve currency; in the 60s, gold (or a gold-backed dollar) constituted world financial reserves.

The ROCKET forces will be applied to the price of gold TODAY, dwarfing the price move in the 70s.
--
SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 88839)
Purchasing gold now is IMHO different than in the Sixties. 15 years after the end of WW II with rising inflation and Vietnam coming into the picture, America still had a strong manufacturing economy. Now it has a service economy with huge balance of payments problem because of the huge importation of foreign goods. Now the purchase of gold is first an insurance policy and second and investment vehicle. With hindsight and Forty years of fiat currency and a weak economy, it is now imperative to purchase gold (silver).
--
Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 88837)
Hi all, nice reading all the posts. You guys and gals are awesome! I hate missing some of the postings but I try and visit the castle as often as possible. I think buying gold now IS probably like that in the late 60's because although times change people generally don't change. The majority of investors back then were probably into the fad stocks of that time as they are today thus treating gold like an unwanted stepchild. Although I wasn't old enough to really grasp those times in the late 60's concerning the precious metals I can only assume and we all know what happens when one assumes.

Cheers,
Rock
--
Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 88828)
In the 60's the families of my clan were content with the daily gathering and selling of the bat guano plentiful in our cavern home. This great and seeming boundless (and renewable) resource was seen to all as the store of wealth for my people. Little was know or understood of the wealth preserving power of gold.

Over these years my clan has grown to a great number--we have outgrown our bat population. Every family has acquired cell phones and computers for every person--Electronics which use gold. And many have decorated themselves with gold jewelry. From our years of dependency upon the bat's, my people understand supply and demand.

Today, my clan seeks gold as a more reliable store of wealth and we observe that the guano/gold ratio has remained constant over these many years--as good for us today as it was in the 60s.

We will talk of this again. I am Lothar, of the Hill People.
---
VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 88820)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the v not gett4(8 �P4,�0nterest back4'��and financing in order to get elected, rather than a constituency that rejects hearing the truth and accepting it). So, where do we go from here? Our president is only a politician that made it to the Big Game. And, in my limited understanding of our current one, he hasn't too many original thoughts so he relies heavily on his closest advisors (and he is very intolerant of dissent...to the extent of having small town newspaper personnel fired for unflattering or opposing opinions). That's where I begin to shudder. I think he's ignorant of practically everything except "telling them what they want to hear, in a good ole� boy fashion". If he has intelligence, I firmly believe it's all directed to cronyism (his "advisors") and furthering his father's and grandfather's (Prescott Bush, who made his fortune dealing in arms during WWII) (and probably those before them but I haven't studied the Bush family tree) instruction. In my book, the man's main talent is how to con the people and sell whatever is his latest product (which, unfortunately for us, is the fate of the US). I've seen enough to believe that those Saturday Night Live parodies were based on fact, not just an easy laugh. We have a driven man, with a script that many want to hear (after all, scare the American public by having some "war devastation" actually occur IN THE US, ON OUR SOIL, and we're ready to bomb the hell out of the rest of the world to get the SOB who has the audacity to do that to such a peace loving country who much of the world (muslim) resents because we love "peace and freedom.") (BTW, I am SO sick of hearing how they resent our "freedom" and that's why they hate us!) At the same time as the public is roused to go after those terrorists, the administration manages to sneak in a few freedom curtailing new laws or Executive Orders (Homeland Security), it allows a few of its energy buds to get a few new contracts, get its federal judges appointed and approved, etc. Give me a break -- if anyone thinks the current administration gives a rat's about the American public, they are in for a very rude awakening!

War is a GREAT diversion (it hides a multitide of "sins" (or what they don't want you to look at)). Until it finaly HITS HOME.

I'm sorry for this tirade. BUT, if we Americans want to survive, we need to start thinking outside of what WE WANT. We have been so spoiled for so long that we actually believe (because we want to) our own (politicians') hype!

GET GOLD (AND SILVER FOR EVERY DAY PRACTICALITY) NOW! Ignore the hype. Don't buy the BS. Protect yourself...do you think they will??

OK, Tacitus, you know where I stand in my political beliefs! Unfortunately, I know of no Democrat politician that I think any more highly of, so I can't argue "politics." I am not in favor of the "democratic - socialist" programs of free lunches. Nor am I in favor or policies that favor the upper 1�f the public ("cronies") which seems to be the current administration's bent. Unless, of course, our PM holdings should ever catapult US into that category! Ha! Ho!.

Sorry for my rambling...that seems to be who I am!

Gandalf the White
AND NOW the real postings conclusion !!! <;-)
SO SORRY !! First time that I have ever posted something that was toooooo long for the Server !
I do not know where the ADDITIONAL data on VanRip's post came from !!! (please excuse the dangling partciple.)

==
VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 88820)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No. The urgency to own gold now is greater than it was in the 1960's, regardless whether it costs more or less in dollars. Unfolding severe economic and social problems demand that one protect his assets now in the best possible way - gold.
--
rsjacksr (11/05/02; 10:34:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 88815)
AND OF COURSE THE ANSWER TO THE BURNING #7 QUESTION IS NO. Buying gold now is not like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's. It's better. Well now, let's see. If I have 1/2 of my information straight, if you divide M3 by the total amount of gold we are suppose to have, the numbers come up to something like $30,000 plus dollars per ounce. At today's prices, that makes Gold a steal.
Gold, get you some.
---
J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 88730)
Buying gold now is much better than buying gold at $35 in the late sixties. Back then the gold window was about to close. Now, not only are the economic stresses to the system about to be much worse due to the massive amounts of debt, but gold is starting to come back into use as money. Add to the fact that since the mid-1990's the Fed has been printing $$$ like it's been growing on trees, the huge short gold position time bomb that's brewing, wars, and it's the only real financial insurance you can get.
---
slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 88787)
Missed that boat too! I think it is the same. The attitude towards gold now by the general public is that it is a poor investment at $318.0 for they will not let lose of the paper money. In the late 1960's I do not think most people paid any attention to the POG. Thirty five dollars was plenty of money for the average J6P. I do not remember any gold coins in circulation.
Slingshot-------------<>
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Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 88767)
When gold was $35 an ounce, the U.S. currency was backed by silver certificates and silver coins. Now, the price of gold is relative only to paper, ink, and plated zinc slugs.
Interestingly, 35 Silver dollars are now still worth about one ounce of gold. I think we are now getting a better bargain on gold, then in 1960. Also, I can earn $320 today, easier than I could earn $35 in 1960.
---
GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 88764)
No, buying gold now is not like buying gold at $35/oz in the very late 60's. I don't think I had $35 to spare in the late 60's. Fortunately, I've had many $319's or so to spare in 2002! Phew! (A subjective answer regarding my ability and not gold's value).
GratefulForGold
---
PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 88776)
Early in my gold bug days, some time in the early '80s, I purchased 2 Krugerrands. Up till then I had held shares only.

I had them in my possession overnight and can still remember the weight in my hand and my feeling of wealth in those two coins. I had been underground at a few of the SA mines so had an appreciation of the sweat in their production.

The Krugerrands went back to the stockbroker's safe and I sold them at a modest profit a few weeks later. I purchased options on 10 more. I held those a couple of months and sold them again at a modest profit. I'm expecting a 'modest' rise in POG again.

I never forgot those coins and intend to buy 4 more, to hold.

The market is different now, I realise now that gold was in a bear market and my gold investments see-sawed over the years. I missed the Internet bubble and started buying mostly precious metal mutuals to add to my portfolio from 1996.

Your competition reminds me of that time and I feel that gold will again show a modest rise in the coming months. The difference from the early '80s though, is well documented by list members.
---
Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 88774)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" Hmm, lets compare wages. In the late sixties minimum wage was $1.60 an hour while Gold was 21 times minimum wage. Now my Dad got a job at Ford's in 67' making $4.25 an hour as an electrician and was happy as a clam. This brings Gold to 8 times his hourly wages.

Now at present minimum wage is $5.15 which makes Gold 62 times the hourly wage. If you want to compare apples to apples (21x) then the present minimum wage should be at $15. And the 8 times Gold price brings a electrician wages to $40 an hour which sounds about right. However, the guy getting minimum wage is getting ripped of at present, relative to gold.
--
Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 88769)
By the late 1960's it had become clear to many of the thoughtful that the US was some way along the old "Road to Ruin the Romans ran", via "panem and circenses" (bread and circuses in Roman times, Government welfare and sports events in our times), and via foreign wars. Inflation was inevitable and the price of gold had to increase. Investment in gold was a way to preserve the value of ones accumulated liquid capital.

Now the US is nearing the terminus of that "Road to Ruin" and buying gold becomes a means for not merely capital preservation, but for personal and family survival. The prospective consequences of buying gold have become considerably higher.
---
Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 88768)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

In Australia, no, because gold now is about twice as expensive in Aussie dollars as it was then. In the US, yes; in fact it is probably a bit better value now than then. However it is good value in both countries because the world financial system is more precariously poised now than then, the excesses have been greater, and gambling in "sewage" wasn't around then. Finally, the US is now heading into the uncertainties of a war, while then we were heading towards stalemate in the Vietnam conflict. Enough said...
Sundeck
---
kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 88763)
For certain, gold was a much better deal in the late '60s at $35 an ounce, had it been legal for Americans to own it then of course. de Gaulle knew it was a steal. So why $$$ 321.2 $$$? $285.41 ($20.67 in 1933 dollars adjusted for inflation today) + 356.96 ($35 in 1944, again adjusted for inflation) / 2 = $321.2

Funny how that works out to just about it's value today, huh? Currency pegged or currency floating, gold spikes and gold valleys - over time it will average out to it's historic intrinsic value. Gold will always preserve wealth, if you want to use it to make a profit (off physical, anyway) sell it when the first case of smallpox is confirmed or the first dirty bomb goes off. Buy it back 6-12 mo's later for less. Just my opinion. Good luck all.
--
Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 88752)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

Well, of course not! There are some thirty years difference between the late 1960's and now. Buying it now is a completely different year. The past is gone forever, so buy it now, but you will never find it for $35/ ounce.
--
steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 88748)
$$$$ 319.20 $$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

I don't know if it is or not. I wasn't even in my teens . However the federal reserve sure has printed a lot of fiat dollars since then so it seems like it is to me at the moment.
--
Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 88743)
Yes, I feel the price of Gold at $35 in 1960 is the same as now because it doesn't matter what the price of Gold's value is its the most precious of all. Living in Canada at this time of the year we tend to talk about the weather a lot so here's my weather forecast...its going to get *Gold* this winter...very very GOLD...Good Luck To All
--
Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 88740)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

No, In My Very Humble Opinion, we are above the low for this bull market. I think buying in the 270's - 280's was like buying in the 1960's at 35.00 per ounce. Gold is still at an unbelievable low price, even now. I bought 30 oz. last week in a private placement at 326.00. I will continue to buy as the price goes up. Buying now has not hurt the weighted average cost of my stash. Buy gold. You'll never be sorry you did, no matter what the price.

My investment money is divide thusly.

Gold Bullion 49%
Natural Gold Nuggets 26%
Cash 22%
Rare Gold Coins 2%
Silver 1%

Go gold! Thanks for the contest!
--
Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 88732)
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" It is! I may be a little early on the price of $3,231.20 but someday soon people will be asking "Is buying gold now like buying it at $318 an ounce in late 2002?
====
<;-)
Gold N Rule
To Cobra Too
Yes indeed, the U.S. may go the way of other empires.... not a happy thought!!
Tacitus
Give Me a Solution
Gentlemen,

Things are sounding rather gloomy in this chat room. So let's play a little "make-believe". Make believe that you were in charge. You are president and have total control of the government, your party held the vast majority of seats in the House and Senate and the general public was ready to go in whatever direction you wanted them to go. Mr. Greenspan is at your beck and call etc. You get the general picture.

What do we do, to turn things around. What kind of program would you put in. Lay out at least a 10 point program. In other words, where should we go from here? I think this would be interesting.

Would especially like to hear from Aristotle and Belgian.

Salve,
Tacitus
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Sierra Madre
From "The Thirties" by Malcolm Muggeridge
So MUCH entusiasm in the US about going to war!!! "It is one of the illusions of Liberalism and all its many offshoots and affiliations, that the way to men's hearts is to offer them material benefits. If this were indeed the case, the triumph of pacifism would be assured, since there is no material benefit more precious than life, no material catastrophe more awful than death. If however, men want to live, they also want to die; and their longing for death is usually the more ardent and more easily played upon of the two, because more rarely indulged. It accumulates through monotonous, disappointing years, a reservoir of death-longing, ready to be tapped, and when tapped, producing wars, revolutions, and other upheavals. Between the two longings to live and to die, men fluctuate, making civilizations and destroying them, formulating beliefs and demolishing them, bringing order out of disorder and then disorder out of order, weaving the pattern of their history."
Sierra Madre
Tacitus, your request for a ten point program, "What to do?"

Tacitus, I think you really have not grasped the problem facing the US, and also the rest of the world.

There has been an enormous malinvestment, a mistaken use of scarce resources in the US, and ALSO all over the world, mainly driven by credit-creation in the US, producing dollars for the rest of the world through trade deficits.

Malinvestment means, for instance, that you built a boat that cannot float in your farm pond. The boat is too big, not enough water depth. That's malinvestment.

Another mistaken use of capital, is burning your house down, to keep warm.

Your questions are rather like, "Propose a ten point program to fix the problem of the burnt-down house."

The house is gone, it burnt down. It is no more. There can be no solution to the problem, no financial alternative to remedy the fact that the house is gone.

All that is left, is to begin rebuilding again, with painful savings, lower standard of living for a long while, and lots of sweaty labor.

People find it hard to understand that finance cannot work magic. When the house has burnt down, it is gone; that is a fact and no amount of number-juggling is going to change the fact.

The world is going to have to go through a terrible, terrible period, and perhaps that is why Mr. Bush is in such a hurry to get a war going: to be able to attribute the decline in living standards, which will be great, to the "war effort" and rally patriotism to cover up the gigantic mess, facing the US principally; but, the whole world is in for very, very difficult times.

There are no solutions. Only work and savings, and a mass psychology more oriented to facts and away from consumerist lunacy.

Sierra
GratefulForGold
The virtual door opens a crack...
She first scans the room, alert for signals. Hearing no alarms, she sheepishly enters, feeling a comparable "morning after" chagrin. "Did I really say that?" she ventures. "Yes, dear, you did!"

Thank you, Mr. Gresham, for your continued acceptance. I truly appreciate it.
Thank you, Tacitus, for your gentlemanly response.
And you, too, Cometose! But don't encourage me because one of these days I'll say what I Really feel! ho.

You guys here are great and I appreciate all of you and your wisdom.

GratefulForGold (and GratefulForUSAGOLD!)
mikal
@Tacitus
Gloomy? What led you to that conclusion, unless you're speaking for yourself. Why don't you take your own bait and tell us just how the "chief exucutive" will wrest control from his handlers without taking a bullet like Reagan, Kennedy and their hapless forbears. Once accomplished, then give us your cheery assessment of this "recovery" and how to spread American "prosperity". Maybe a start would be to give the country's foremost scholars, scientists and statesman a strong voice in the selection of candidates who run for gov't positions. There are many qualified candidates that have been stymied in the past. Another needed reform is control over electronic ballot boxes that have illegal "back doors". And it goes without saying that most people do not even know why they vote as they do- the winner is usually the one spending the most money to make his name known.
Yukon
Tacitus
www.nesara.orgI agree with Sierra's message below, i.e. you need more than a 10 point program to fix an entire monetary system that affects virtually every aspect of our lives.

To answer your question though, if it is true solutions to this beast that has been thrust upon us that we seek, then I believe that there is an answer. However, even with both houses of Congress on the same page, what I refer to will probably never become reality because most of our elected reps. have a vested interest in keeping the system going at all costs. Would you want to be a politician and admit that you had a hand in perpetrating great lies and knew that the government to which you were elected was operating outside its constitutional boundaries and you did nothing to stop it or call it into question? (I belive Rep. Ron Paul is the only exception here)

The answer to our problems lies in a little known piece of legislation called the National Economic Stabilization and Recovery Act (N.E.S.A.R.A.). I have studied this act in detail and believe it to be the most comprehensive and total package for providing for the following:

1. Elimination of the private Federal Reserve System and returning monetary control back to Congress where it Constitutionally belongs; which thereby provides for the U.S. Treasury to issue paper currency of two types; first that which is backed by precious metal and second that which is backed by the credit of the U.S. government

2. Restoring gold and silver coin as mandated by the Constitution, though ignored by every state in this republic

3. Providing a means to eliminate all interest on debt

I hope everyone has at least taken a cursory look at what this Bill could accomplish. I would love to hear all the great minds at this forum come out in favor of this potential legislation. I would also love to hear any criticisms of it. For as I stated earlier, I know of no other solution or idea that even comes close to tackling all three problems listed above.

Viva Liberty!

Yukon
Cavan Man
Cheers Sierra
Few see the world as it actually is. Surely there's
a solution in a political platform or a new slogan?

"What shadows we chase. What shadows we've become!"
Liberty Head
Tacitus
If I had the power:
1. I would reinstall the Constitution and Bill of Rights as the supreme law of the land. This would be retroactive and all inclusive.
2. I would stop all government sponsored meddling in the internal affairs of other countries.
3. Our military would be 100% devoted to defending our country and training citizens to defend themselves.
4. All peaceful private business and mediums of exchange would be conducted at the mercy of a complete and total free-market.
5. Representation would be proportional as opposed to winner take all.
Belgian
@ Tacitus
First of all Sir Tacitus, I do agree with Sierra Madre that the major part of the economical/social house has already been burned and that the remaining parts are on fire.
There is not much left as we can do or do not.
Strong trends went already too far and are therefore irreversable. Economic hyperconcentration, monopolism, regulation and intervention are in full swing. Economics of scale and exploitation/domination are un-balancing and preventing an harmonious development. Debt proliferation and competitive falsifications are murderous...etc...etc !

How would you expect to set all this back on track as to ensure peaceful prosperity for the majority, within an honest meritocraty. I'm making my considerations on a global scale and not only for one continent in particular.
But to be honest with you, I do prefer things going the Euroland way. A nice mixture of sufficient free enterprise and complimentary social engagement without falling into extremes.

But in an effort to answer your question, I would like to suggest the following :

- Decrease economic/monetary intervention drastically.
- Stop all measures that make the economy grow faster than its natural pace. No to unproductive debt and yes to default.
- Stop all forms of blind nationalism and infantilization/de-responsibilization, of the masses.
- Start a crusade to rehabilitate lost values on all domains. Stop wars and put an hold on ambitions to dominate with evil, exploitational, intentions. Live and let live !
- Guarantee genuine justice for all.

PPPfffftttt, what a question, Sir Tacitus...

But I only see extremes, building upon extremes and feel somewhat hopeless with such a naive answer.

As our mentor-host, Sir M. Kosares, talks to a wide variety of his clients about all different economic/financial options, at the stage where we presently are...one must surely find a high dosis of econ./fin., "stablity" in the possession of physical Gold. When the environment is very visibly, overheating, one feels relative comfortable with sufficient water (Gold).

All those economical/financial authorities, never come up with any straithforward strategies to avoid further detoriation or any change of course ! Have you already noticed this ? What good is it to lower 12 times IRs when nothing seems to change and when Japan is a clear to see example ? Why is there so much selectiveness in the defaults (bail outs) ? Why is intervention of all kinds, so omnipotent ? Because having reached extremes can only invite to search for more extremes !

I do realize, this is a somewhat weekend, amateur, philosophy...or an elegant effort for not having to answer your question because I have no, GENERAL, answer/solution to it. That's why I landed on this Gold University here and most probably stickt to it as long as things don't change for the better. Accidently born in 1949 at the start of the Kondratief cycle...I have that nasty feeling that I'll have to live it through the winter period of this entire cycle.
Give me a comforting smile as sign of understanding. Thanks Tacitus for letting me express myself.






Golden Bear
Belgian (msg#: 89140, msg#: 89128)
GS nonesenseSir Belgian,

excellent analysis and revelation of the situation, as always. Thank you.

"The problem with $500 gold is there's so much scrap in the world that any price above $350 would probably lead investors to sell some of their holdings rather than buy more, he said."

Scrap!?!? Reminds me of the story of John Law, the biggest confetti pusher in the history of finance (until Greenspan), and while trying to flee the devastation his scheme created, was supposedly caught with a hoard of bullion.

Cheers.
Golden Bear
Tacitus (msg#: 89139)
Greetings Tacitus,

no need to apologize, this is only healthy debate, which stimulates the mind...

As for...

"...I wish we could avoid the temptation to villianize the Bushes and Gores of the world. I think the vast majority of politicians have good motives. They want to find and impliment the right policies for our financial world. They just have different proposals of how to realize these common goals. Civil discourse is the key to working together to put this country on the right path, whether that be morally speaking or fiscally speaking. Otherwise we may one day degenerate into another Palestine/Israel scenario...."

Bush holding civil discourse? Ya gotta be kidding! Take a read of this and see how Bush responds to ideas foreign to his own...

http://www.bankindex.com/read.asp?ID=1425

Cheers.
Max Rabbitz
End of Goldman Sachs Gold Desk
Could the reason be that the miners are no longer willing to play the paper hedging game? GS is frustrated that miners refuse to do what they're advised/told. Without forward selling, what's in it for GS? They can't make money on analysts fees alone. Who listens to them anyway? Remember the rape of Ashanti? Are they having losses on their gold carry trade book? So they drop coverage and pretend gold is nothing and going nowhere, and get free media propaganda. I'll bet "Analyst" McConvey gets a good recommendation and greener pastures soon. He did his job.
Tacitus
Thanks for the Responses and now Another Question
Gentlemen,

Thanks for the insights. If you have more insights to share so that when I take over I can get things straightened out, please let me know. I'll make you my advisors if you come up with some good ones.

These past two days in the Forum, there was quite a bit of talk about what has happened in Japan thanks to their government tampering with interest rates. Could any of you get me in touch with a history or monograph or essay on this topic. In might help me find out what to expect in the US of A.

And by the way, for all of you lovers and haters of George W. Bush, check out the new documentary called, Journey's with George, produced and written by Alexandra Pelosi (daughter of Nancy Pelosi, soon to be Democratic minority leader in the House of Rep.) It can be partially viewed at HBO.com under documentaries.

Salve,
Tacitus
kludge
Tacitus, et al
My list for the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are:

1) Y2K
2) The asian contagion
3) The falling US dollar...

Oops, sorry - been reading the archives too much and they rest heavy on my thoughts. How DID we survive against, what seemed at the time, these insurmountable challenges???

To answer your earlier question Tacitus, I guess if I had a BS from Yale and an MBA from Harvard (as our President does) - I would still surround myself with the best advisors I could find, experts in their fields, and listen closely to their advice first.

I also found interesting the posts of late on the new UN resolution on Iraq. I'd only like to point out that the 1991 war has NOT ended, we're in a cease-fire as long as Saddam adheres to the resolution he agreed to then. A quick read of UN Res. 687 will show without a doubt that he is NOT living up to the terms of the cease-fire. Some mention clandestine oil contracts, arms sales, and diverting the American citizens minds from the economy as the cause for renewed aggression with Iraq - OK, maybe - but don't forget firstly that Iraq is in breach of a cease-fire agreement!

To the weakness of the new UN resolution, Paragraph 5 states, in part:

"as well as immediate, unimpeded, unrestricted and private access to all officials and other persons"
[...]
"further decides that UNMOVIC and the IAEA may at their discretion conduct interviews inside or outside of Iraq, facilitate the travel of those interviewed and family members outside of Iraq, and that such interviews shall occur without the presence of observers from the Iraqi government"
[...]
Wonder what those "officials and other persons" will have to say once they and their families are safe?

Lastly, on what appears to me as posts from the "guilty American conscience" for having it so good when others may not; our gov't has the responsibility to see to our "Safety and Happiness" and to "insure domestic Tranquility" - considering our standard of living vs. the rest of the world, have they not succeeded? Do we not assist others when disaster strikes their country? Do they help us? I haven't heard of any "IslamCares" crates of food/blankets arriving to help our victims of disaster.

What's any of this have to do with gold? Maybe nothing, except that if the only adjoining device you can envison is a nail, then every problem might like the back-end of a claw hammer.
Max Rabbitz
Golden Bear@ 89161
Is that a Lyndon Larouche web site? It's OK if it is. Doug Noland has even referenced him. It's just that he should be up front about it. Although interesting I am still uncertain how stable/reliable he is. He does not reference anything and so much seems hidden.
The Invisible Hand
BoE is model for 'new' ECB
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,836761,00.html
Faisal Islam, economics correspondent
Sunday November 10, 2002
The Observer

The path towards Britain's possible entry into the euro will be made much easier by a radical French plan for the European Central Bank to be reformed in the image of the Bank of England.
French Prime Minister Jean Pierre Raffarin's Council of Economic Advisers recommends that the ECB adopts three major reforms to its monetary policy arrangements. If adopted, they would allay most of Gordon Brown's concerns about the institutional structure of the Frankfurt-based bank, and make his 'five tests' far easier to pass.
The council's study, by economists Charles Wyplosz and Patrick Artus, was received warmly by the French PM. The reforms would replace the ECB's confusing 'two-pillar' target with an inflation target of between 1 and 4 per cent, entirely consistent with the Britain's target of 2.5 per cent.
It argues that an enlarged eurozone should abandon its unwieldy 18-member decision-making committee, in favour of an executive committee of economists, like the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
France's position is important. It is almost certain that ECB President Wim Duisenberg will be replaced by a Frenchman in July. The favourite, Banque de France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet, is politically close to Raffarin.
==
What does this mean for gold? Only the inner circle of the executive committee of economists will hold decision power. Is this Trail Guide's hand, mind, idea or system?
mas
Comment's from The-Privateer
While we are on the subject, something of interest.

We have asked variations of this question before, but in the wake of the Fed's decision of November 6, it is highly appropriate to ask it again. What would you expect would be the fate of the currency of a nation which:

* Had by far the world's largest net external debt
* Was running an annual current account deficit of (+/-) 500 Billion
* Had not run a GENUINE budget surplus for nearly 40 years
* Was spending more than its six largest "competitors" combined on armaments
* Had a citizenry which had no savings whatsoever
* Had a stock market in a bear with prices still around 40-50 times earnings
* Had a government debt of well over 6 TRILLION
* Had a Central Bank "controlling" interest rate of 1.25%


You would expect the currency of such a nation to be losing exchange value against other currencies, would you not? Of course, the nation is the US, the currency is the US Dollar, and the US Dollar IS losing value against other currencies. On Friday, November 8, the US Dollar index closed at 104.68 - down 0.45 points on the day and only 0.26 points above its 2002 low close of 104.42 set on July 19.
Shermag
$$$$ 324.2 $$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

Yes and no. Although today's environment bears many of the characteristics of that era, there exist important differences that further support a gold price explosion.

First the important similarities:

1. The world again finds itself awash in U.S. dollars. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods accord and Nixon's closing of the gold window were the consequences of the dollar excesses at that time. We again find that the U.S. has overplayed its privileged reserve currency hand as evidenced by the enormity of the "big float" and the massive current account deficit. At the moment, geopolitical and economic incentives for individuals and nations to hold their dollars seem to be eroding away. Machinations of the Treasury, IMF, and assorted central banks not withstanding, the U.S. dollar is due for a hard adjustment.

2. It's all about oil. In the early seventies, the U.S. oil production peaked. That caused a shift in capital flows and wealth that was partially offset by inflating the currency. The entire world now seems poised to round out its Hubbert peak, with inevitable inflationary reactions to mitigate the pain.

3. It's guns and butter all over again. The U.S. once again finds itself embroiled in external military engagements. The war on terror, as was the war on communism, threatens to be costly, and escalating, with no foreseeable end. Meanwhile, the cradle to grave social promises remain intact. There is again to be no sacrificing of lifestyle to support the war effort, with attendant federal budget deficits as far as the eye can see.

Now the important differences:

1. Its the debt, stupid. The U.S. was then a net creditor nation, supported by a productive capital base built over more than a century. It was a nation of savers. We now see the U.S. bloated with debt at government, corporate and personal levels seemingly beyond what can ever be repaid. Productive capital investment is displaced by consumptive excesses.

Although an extreme in magnitude, the U.S. is far from alone in its debt excesses. National governments around the globe, from first to third world status, are pushing the debt envelope. Argentina is only one of the first to succumb. Personal debt levels, most notably in the Anglo nations, is also at unprecedented levels. Germany's corporate strains of late are just a few examples of corporate excesses around the world.

2. Tottering banks. A fed funds rate at 1.25%, rocketing loan loss provisions, runaway bankruptcy at corporate, national and personal levels, decimated share prices, earnings under pressure, abysmal transparency, and notional derivative exposures beyond $90 trillion. These are not the hallmarks of a healthy sector. Japans banks are on the verge of falling below the minimal capital adequacy requirements to be able operate internationally. The banks of the seventies were models of fiscal probity compared to those of today.

3. Demographics. We are an aging globe, with the populations of western nations about to place some hefty demands on the remaining productive sectors. In Canada, for example, within 20 years each retiree will have only 2.5 working age people to support them, in contrast to the present 6 workers. Pay as you go pension promises will be broken with alarming frequency in years to come.

4. Bubbles galore. We have just witnessed the bursting of what has been described as the largest stock market bubble ever. A U.S. housing bubble is arguably about to burst. The bond markets are looking bubblish of late. The Japanese have yet to come to terms with their massive twin bubbles in stocks and real estate. Add these to the above described debt, balance of payments, and U.S dollar bubbles and we get a not so pretty picture of what monetary excesses can do.

5. The call-the-lawyers syndrome. Although less tangible, there is non-the-less an increased tendency in our society to find someone else to pay for our mistakes or misfortunes. Litigation is a first recourse in many circumstances. This goes hand in hand with an erosion of personal responsibility and self sufficiency.

6. Inflate your problems away. If all you have in your toolbox is a hammer, every problem resembles a nail. The fed's response to all financial problems it encounters is to smack it with its inflation hammer. And hammer hard they do. The nail-like threat of deflation will be no different.

7. Price suppression. Today's price does not closely reflect the supply and demand fundamentals in the gold market. When this over-corrects, as all economic pendulums eventually do, the upside in dollar terms will be breathtaking.

In short, there is a now much more compelling case for preservation of personal wealth with gold than that of the late 60's era.
Golden Bear
Max Rabbitz (msg#: 89165)
Hey Max,

No I don't think it is. I did a search and could find no direct affiliation. It's a website offering alternative views on global events, some articles being from Larouche and his staff...

I agree with your comments, I posted the link more for the anecdotal comments from various sources regarding Bush.

Larouche's website is at: http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/

Cheers.
ax
How much does U.S. Gold Cover?

reference: mas (11/09/02; 18:55:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 89167)
"... government debt of well over 6 TRILLION"

Assuming the figure quoted by MAS of a " 6 trillion dollar
debt" is approximately correct, how much of this is covered
by U.S. Treasury Gold?

6 trillion dollars = 6000 billion dollars

Assuming there are 8000 tons of gold in the U.S. Treasury
and the price is roughly $321/ounce, my calculations
indicate ( please correct me if this is inaccurate ):

$ 82,524,383,000 or 82.524383 billion dollars are
covered by U.S. Treasury Gold.


82.524383/6000 = .0137540 = 1.37548 %


Only 1.37548 % of the 6 billion dollars is covered by
U.S. Treasury Gold.

Is there any doubt that either :

1. The price of gold must rise significantly to increase
the dollar value of the U.S. Treasury gold stock

or

2. The U.S Treasury must substantially increase the
gold tonnage it owns


Either way, it will require massive increases in either
1 or 2 to cover the 6 billion dollar figure more than
a very slight 1.37548 %.

Any corrections to these figures are welcomed.

ax
Gandalf the White
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
The Dec '02 POG Settlement Guessing CONTEST !TENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 20:10 Denver time 11/09/02
A total of 54 Prognostications to date !
Get your Number soon as the rush will be on MONDAY !
(As my Crystal Ball says that the total will be 150+ !!!!!) TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!

TENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 20:10 Denver time 11/09/02
A total of 54 Prognostications to date !
Get your Number soon as the rush will be on MONDAY ! <;-)

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :

11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---
THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892

?*?* 320.5 Rule 7 mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

===
<;-)

mikal
@ax
I like your reasoning! I have seen estimates based on a gold cover for M3 money supply as well as M1 money supply for varied results. But concluding, like you, the US would need to somehow purchase a large gold cache. Why not, for fun base an estimate on covering M1+ M2+ M3? There are many possibilities, and many individual perspectives that could establish something closer to definitive than we have already seen.
Golden Bear
James Grant on Inflation and Greenspan's fears...
http://www.nbr.com/"...KANGAS: Do you believe Wednesday's half percent cut in the Fed funds rate marked the end of the down trend for interest rates? And, in any event, why would the Fed cut so aggressively while at the same time elevating its view of the economy from weak to neutral?

GRANT: Well, central bankers, no more than diplomats, are held to the literal truth in our society. And I think what the Chairman of the Fed meant to say is I am really scared. I'm cutting the rate by one half of one percent, but I'm going to say I'm not scared.

KANGAS: Do you think the Fed sees the threat of deflation?

GRANT: Interestingly, the Fed is worried about the threat of no inflation. And think about what that means. It means that the powers that be want the currency in which our savings is denominated, they want that currency to depreciate. Inflation is a part of the institutional structure of American finance and the absence of inflation is a very worrisome thing to the Federal Reserve system. So levered, that is to say, so indebted is the economy that the absence of inflation presents, paradoxically, a big problem. And I think that we all ought to reflect on what that means. What it means is that the dollar is meant to depreciate. That is the public policy of the United States government and we ought to take, I think, the proper steps to offset that..."
mikal
@ax
As the US dollar will need to be devalued to pay off the external trade deficit and inflate away the budget deficit, will this lay the groundwork for a new linked currency coordinated with the Euro, Yen, Remnibi, Pound, Franc and Dinar? Perhaps invoking the gold cover clause, which is still on the books, to provide a partial backing to the US$, using gold in the Central Bank reserves. The Euro, as you know, is 15% "backed" by gold, whereby the large gold reserves in the European Central Bank (ECB) are revalued periodically (currently every 3 months, this is flexible), called mark to market, (ie- marked to the market price) the current London gold fix. As I write, the Euro is above parity with the US dollar and near a historic high which will soon be left far behind. As gold revalues, the Euro reserve's value increases, strengthening their currency, credit standing and clout internationally, Attracting more and more foreign investment in official(gov't) and private(corporate) bonds, currency, real estate, factories, banks, and more. A nominal percentage Au backing would guarantee the fiscal discipline needed to restore a measure of confidence to currency markets and begin to heal the US and world's economic systems.

Tacitus
Bravo Kludge
Dear Kludge,

Thanks for putting in a good word for the Commander-in-Chief.

I'll keep an eye open for your postings. But for now I'm crashing.

By the way, what does "Kludge" stand for?

Over and out.
Tacitus
seagull
$$$$ 320.7 $$$$
As already mentioned by others, the POG has inflated from the late �60s to the present by a factor of about 10, but as this inflation is seen in all goods and services, the relative price of gold has remained stable.

But it is the backdrop that is different.

Back in the 60's:
1.public interest in the financial markets and certainly the gold market was miniscule compared with the present, and in some countries, gold ownership was illegal

2.there was general public consensus about the intrinsic value of gold as the pinnacle of absolute value, whereas currently TPTB do all in their power to denigrate gold as a �barbarous relic�.

3.There was probably manipulation of markets, but it wasn't as blatant or as desperate as in the present

4.The social and economic fabric of developed countries was considerably more stable

5.The currency of those nations was backed by something a little more substantial than is the case today

So, while the POG has remained relatively constant, its absolute value has escalated by a factor of 10, and TPTB are doing all they can to obscure this from a more-informed public (well, some are!) in a vain effort to hold onto the reins. Gold has been the absolute store of value for thousands of years, and there is absolutely nothing to replace its position or its historical significance.
ManAurum
$$$$322.40$$$$
Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?

The opportunity to gain from a purchase of gold in the late 60's was bigger imho. Today, the potential price rise in gold may be smaller than in the late 60's, but our ability to capitalize it is greater.

By the late 60's, the price of gold had been set at $35 for approximately 35 years. For the vast majority, $35 gold must have been like a fact of nature and taken for granted. Only the more astute and shrewd investors could have predicted that the US would go off the gold standard, which then led to the dramatic rise in gold in the 70's and beyond. Only the very few saw the eventual price rise, and they took the lion's share of the investment gain. The average investor was probably kept out of a good part of the rally by the restrictions in gold ownership by the US government.

Today, there are quite a few people who predict a dramatic rise in the gold price (although we are still very much the minority). The gain we experience may be smaller. Gold would have to rise to approximately $7,800 to reach the same percentage gain as when gold went from $35 to $850. $7,800 gold might happen, but I predict not. Nevertheless, with all the gold products available today (eagles, maple leafs, pandas, krugs, etc.) and with gold ownership legal, we have a greater ability to capitalize on the price gain and to protect our wealth.

P.S. This seemed like the perfect day to submit my first post. I received my first order from USAGold today: 3 St. Gaudens. Thank you to USAgold for the services you provide and thank you to all the knowledgeable and wise posters I have read over the last year of lurking.

(By the way, if the US continues to relentlessly depreciate its currency, we could see $7,800 gold. Hang on for the ride!)

ax
@MIKAL

Mikal, I think you are correct that currencies could be
linked. However, the need for a gold "stabilizer" ie
larger tonnages of gold reserves for each of the
participating countries in such a linkage, would even more
necessary than it is now. This is because there would be
a greater need to smoothe out fluctuations in the economic
stability factors within each country so participating.
For instance, when a currency such as the USD , now the
world's reference currency, weakens because of the multiple
factors such as are now weakening it, the need for a greater
tonnage of an "absolute" gold reference within the treasury
increases in importance. It is now important for the USD
to be so stabilized, but would, in a future linked currency
set up,be important for that component of the linked
currency which was represented by the USD component.

Basically, the more weight of "absolute" gold reference
within each of the major central banks, particularly that
of the United States, the better it would be for future world currency stability, leading to world economic
stability, led by stability within the United States.

ax
@MIKAL

Mikal -

1.

in line with your idea of a currency linkage I
think it would help us all to stop relating gold to its
price in various currencies and do the opposite - always
relate a currency in terms of its value in gold -
the " absolute" currency.

for instance:

Fri 11-08-02 the USD = 96.89 mg of gold

the Yuan Renminbi = 11.71 mg of gold

the Euro = 98.15 mg og gold

and so forth.

2.

I think your thought of adding m1 plus m2 and m3 to see
how much of that sum is currently covered by gold reserves
is an interesting one. Do you have any current figures
for these aggregates?

3. I would also be interested to know the total current valuation of all residential homes in the U.S. as
another comparative figure. Do you have any idea?
OZ
From Jim Sinclair
To my
Friends, the Gold community:



This is the singular most informed article ever written about derivatives by a respected media publication. I respectfully and earnestly request that each member of this community do everything in their power to get this article on as many web sites, chat sites, editors of major business publications and to investigative media. The author this article has been clearly, correctly and professionally informed. We all want our major gold producers to survive this threat and not to be burdened by it. I also respectfully suggest that you send this article to every gold and silver company you are invested in, trade in or simply follow. Both majors and juniors with new projects being developed by majors with a derivative book have a derivative problem. The recent BIS figures suggest strongly that some producers now claiming to be non-hedgers have just increased the size of their hedge books by buying more of this sewage paper but only in an offsetting specific performance obligations. They are therefore still exposed the counter party risk but only in a greater way. These items must be expunged from their balance sheets for their own best interest. I have not asked much of my friends but for gold, for the gold industry, for me and for yourself please make a major effort to see this article gets the distribution is deserves.
Thank you.
Your Fox Hole Buddy in the Gold War.
Jim

Saturday � November 9 � 2002


The rumour that won't die
Investors keep worrying about J.P. Morgan's gold hedging exposure

Steve Maich
Financial Post

Friday, November 08, 2002

Suzanne Plunkett, The Associated Press
Wall Street investment bank J.P. Morgan headquarters in New York. J.P. Morgan has denied repeated allegations that a rising gold price will trigger losses in its huge position in gold derivatives.



The rumour that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is facing massive losses on gold derivative exposure is the market conspiracy theory that will not die.

J.P. Morgan insisted yet again yesterday that its derivative exposure remains minimal, calling the latest rumours "false and irresponsible." But that didn't stop investors from driving the shares (JPM/NYSE) down 6.6% yesterday.

Despite the denials, thousands of investors and analysts suspect J.P. Morgan has more on the line than it's letting on. Just as they did when Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. slipped last summer on concerns about their extensive hedging strategies, investors are complaining about a lack of transparency in derivatives trading, and a general distrust of complex financial structures.

One former brokerage credit officer, now working as an independent analyst, said the market has very little faith in assurances about risk exposure when they aren't backed up by hard data.

"To see what some of these companies have as real exposure and then hear their public statements, it just boggles the mind sometimes," he said. "You just don't know, and that's the point."

J.P. Morgan became heavily involved in forward gold contracts in the 1990s when the commodity price was in a slow decline. Market watchers at the time said gold was going nowhere in the new global economic environment, and the derivatives market allowed banks like J.P. Morgan to extract profits from a marooned asset class.

As far as most analysts are concerned, J.P. Morgan's massive derivatives program amounted to a short position on the price of gold. And with gold prices up 17.5% in the past year, speculation is swirling that the bank is now taking a serious pounding.

How big the losses are, is a matter of endless debate.

David Hendler, a bond analyst at Creditsights Inc., an independent research firm in New York, discussed the gold question in a Sept. 23 report to clients. He concluded that there is not enough public information released by the bank to precisely determine the risks, but there are a few clues that suggest reasons for concern.

First and foremost is J.P. Morgan's extensive participation in the derivatives market, he said. In all, the bank holds about US$26-trillion in futures and options contracts, or roughly 50% of the overall market. That's more than twice the size of the entire annual U.S. gross domestic product.

J.P. Morgan has reduced its gold contracts over the past year, but it is still relatively overexposed compared to other major banks, Mr. Hendler said. At the end of the second quarter Morgan's gold contracts were worth US$45-billion on a notional basis. Citigroup, the largest financial services company with about 50% more total assets than J.P. Morgan, has just US$12-billion in gold derivatives.

Notional value isn't a true reflection of the bank's risk, because it refers to the potential maximum value of a contract. But even a writeoff of 5% of its total gold contract would represent a loss in excess of US$2-billion, greater than the bank's total net income in 2001.

Like all banks, J.P. Morgan has stress-tested its portfolio and insists that even in its worst-case "value at risk" scenario, its gold contracts would cut just US1� per share from its 2003 earnings. But, like all banks, it refuses to go into the specifics of trading strategies, or how they arrive at their risk models, as these are proprietary secrets.

If the denials are starting to ring hollow, it's because J.P. Morgan has had to issue so many of them in recent months.

The bank is trying to recover US$965-million in losses from doomed derivatives transactions with Enron Corp. The insurance companies involved maintain the deals were tantamount to fraud and they've refused to pay. The bank also faces a variety of lawsuits arising from its role as financier to Enron and WorldCom Inc. The bank has denied all allegations of wrongdoing, and so far hasn't taken a provision for the potential losses, insisting that they'll be vindicated.

Back in July, Kathy Shanley, an analyst at Gimme Credit, an independent bond research firm, said "there is no way to responsibly quantify the ultimate financial impact of the current investigations."

J.P. Morgan is also at the centre of a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into allegations that the bank forced clients to buy more shares of bank-led IPOs in the after market to ensure new issues surged in their first few days of trading. Again, executives have denied the charges, but investors are well aware that Credit Suisse First Boston paid US$100-million last year to settle similar charges.

For a bank that saw third-quarter profits plunge 91% thanks to a slew of credit writeoffs, all the outstanding questions are creating an unappealing picture.

In an environment like this, whispers about multi-billion dollar derivatives losses are finding fertile ground among nervous shareholders.

smaich@nationalpost.com


� Copyright 2002 National Post






Gandalf the White
WELCOME Sir ManAurum !!!
ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 89177)
===
Great to have you aboard ! Now, don't be a STRANGER.
<;-)
mudr
To Gandalf the White
Sir, I am sorry rhat my contest entry did not answer the question in rule # 7. Please amend my post, although NOT my guess. I would add these first lines to my origional:
Buying GOLD now may very well be like buying GOLD in the $60's at $35 an ounce. But two things to remember are that it took time and included correction along the way.

(Then continue with my origional post)

There's my guess. Having been shook out of my favorite gold mine stock by its ups and downs, I am firmly convinced that the best way to be in this GOLD bull market is to buy at a reasonable point and hold on. The POG may fluctuate and the same old "fear talk" may be posted on the boards that was posted when GOLD was trying to break $300, but today the price is well over that amount. The POG will zigzag it's way across the time line, but it's overall trend is UP. Buy now, wait a year or two, don't worry to much in between the times. Our fundamental reasons for joining the GOLD bull market has not changed nor will it change with the daily fluctuations. Hold on tight. Good luck to all and thanks for all your postings.

(My origional price guess was: $$$$ 320.50 $$$$ )

Thanks.

Sierra Madre
Idle to compare M1, M2, and M3 with gold stocks...

Or to talk of regaining stability once more, with a "return to gold".

It is not going to happen. Things have gone much too far.

The world's productive structure and debt structure are beyond salvation.

What will have to happen, is a tremendous overhaul which will leave the world in, to us who live these days, a completely unrecognizable form.

Gold will be extremely important in the period ahead, but it will not figure in the plans devised by nations or their governments. It will be vitally important to individuals, you and me...

The forest has been chopped down, there is nothing to be done but wait, until it grows again - if it ever does. And we won't see the day when the forest flourishes once more.
In the history of mankind, Institutions are never re-established. "You can't go home again." We shall not live to see the day when any currency is gold and any bills are redeemable in gold. Not even the Euro.

Not only is it a question of productive structures and debt; it is a question of morality that has disappeared. And also, a question of populations that want something for nothing, and will not have it any other way. That precludes real money.

Populations used to be ruled by their morality (by and large). Today, they are ruled by offering them - paper money. What other means of ruling is there, today, except by bribing the masses? After paper money cannot be used any further, the masses will be ruled by the whip and the firing squad.

The circle has gone around, and we are back to pre-Hammurabi times. Even 5,000 years ago, people and rulers were never godless atheists, not even the cruelest despots ignored Divinity. Our world is in a situation worse than any in history, for vast numbers of population and rulers are atheistic, something never seen before in human history.

You think the "Dark Ages" are in the past? We are IN the dark ages, far darker than those of the IV to the XV centuries. Technology - yes; but it will evaporate in the intellectual, moral and religious darkness stifling the world.

Gold: get some, and if you can, hang on to it.

Sierra
Waverider
The European experience
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DK08Dj01.htmlThis article (12 printed pages) provides an in-depth historical analysis of European banking and monetary policy - quite an interesting read.
Yellow Metal
$$$$321.9$$$$
I missed the last two contests and I don't want to miss this oneIn 1967 or 68 I bought a Canadian 1912 five dollar gold piece.
Diameter: 21.59 millimeters
Weight: 8.36 grams
Composition: .900 gold, .100 copper
Edge: Reeded
Net Weight: .242 ounce pure gold
Rather similar to that being offered by our host in this contest.
I shared the purchase price with a friend and I believe we each contributed about $55.00 CDN.
After watching it's progress for a little more than a year I grew discouraged that I hadn't made my fortune with it and I guess it was in 1969 that I sold it to buy my first 10 speed bicycle. That same coin now appears to be worth about $300. CDN and I could almost get a bicycle of similar quality now with my share of the proceeds.
What this tells me I'm not exactly sure but it certainly points in the direction of gold being undervalued.
I sure enjoyed that 10 speed.

Belgian
@ Waverider and All !
www.atimes.comAllow me to urge all, reading the archives of Asia Times.
High quality, up to date, insights on matters that directly or indirectly come down to the future of our Gold.
The insights presented in the archives are relatively well balanced and therefore contributing to more, in dept, understanding and helping us in our exchanges of thoughts on the forum.

Start with "The American Empire" Francesco Sisci (parts:1/2/3).

Oil, Global Economy and geopolitical VERY important,evolving, events.
Ingredients for our Gold-Cake.
Christian
$$$$ 315.00 $$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at 35 an ounce in the late 1960's?" NO- Today's enviroment of futures and option contracts make possible other tangible precious metals to compete with gold. Oil also plays a role as a precious metal. Industrial production also plays a role as a tangible asset. Same goes with real estate. China will lead the way to precious metal when the Renmimbi implodes. The people of China already use precious metals as a store of value. It's industrial base is growing while ours is declining. We only produce 16% of what we consume and it will continue to decline until we either starve or have an honest currency. Industrial progress can not be made in a free market system. Too many crooks eat away on the system. It can only be made with a government support system that provides investment capital.
silvercollector
Gold Contest
http://kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgi$$$$315.60$$$$

Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?


"By the late 60's, the price of gold had been set at $35 for approximately 35 years."

Thank you ManAurum.

I do not know the answer but perhaps I may ask a few questions to shed light on the 'question'.

Several posters have jumped on the notion that since 'general' inflation has multiplied by a factor of 10 then gold has followed this multiple with a price hike from $35 to say $350. Gold had dribbled off a tad to $320 leaving a current multiple of somewhere around 9. Lovely.

The spike to $850 in 1980 is an overshoot and thus does gold at 350 reflect 'fair value'? Perhaps in the post spike up era of 1980, but 20 years have now passed. Since 1982 gold has meandered up and down with an average of approximately $350. Has gold said that $350 in 1982 is the correct price, a correction from the late '60's price of $35 indicating a 10-fold leap in inflation.

So what is the 'general price inflation multiple' of post 1982 to today? Another multiple of 6, 8, 10? Let's say 6 putting fair value of gold at $2100.

Let's go where FOA likes to go, way, way back. His $30,000 gold price, I believe derives from the fact that the dollar has lost 99% of it's value, its worth a penny. That's a 100 multiple putting gold at a cool $30,000!!

I think we can solve this debate by looking at the inflation index but where does one start? As ManAurum astutely pointed out gold was at $35 for 35 years, so do we start, at the late 60's or in the 50's, 40's? Surely someone has this graphed. Gold in 1940 at $35 puts gold at X, gold at $35 in 1950 puts gold at Y, gold at $35 in 1960 puts gold at Z.

Now the interesting real time picture, gold at $350 in 1982 puts gold in 2002 at XXX!!

I don't know if the re-inactment of the gold price in the '60's to 1982 is upon us but I bet it is to some degree.

Check the link above.



Gold had a 35 year flatline at $35 and now boasts a 20 year flatline at $350. Next leg up? You bet. You pick the multiple; I'm going with 6, gold=$2100.

I hope I'm wrong.

;)

silvercollector

kludge
(No Subject)
http://www.newsmax.com/showinsidecover.shtml?a=2002/11/10/02756Tacitus, "kludge" (lower "k" please, pronounced "klooj") is an old Navy term for devices that work well on land but not at sea. It came, in my circles anyway, to include "modifications" made to expediently repair something (usually electronics or software) when the correct procedure can't be adhered to or would require too much time to fix properly. Sometimes it can result in the "enhancement" of the device, so that it operates outside it's design specs. Usually the modification is temporary and unsightly. Electrical tape, paper clips, tinfoil, or hex editors and hard-coding variables, are the more common tools of the trade. Students trained in the discipline take pride in the simplicity of their design, the level of enhancement, or the amount of "unnecessary" stuff they can bypass :)

So that this post isn't 100% off topic, see the link above for some news that might spike gold in the short-term.
Rock
In a word....Grim
I can hear the war drums pounding. The lastest report on the terrorism front was that realiable resourses told the AP to expect another terrorist attack within the next three weeks Reports had mentioned that there were three attacks scheduled to occur at the same time, one in the US, one in Great Britian and I can't remember where the other one is. Gold should react favorably to these grim conditions. Expect a nice spike this week. It was times like these that supported my vison to get gold.

Rock
R Powell
$$$$$$324.4$$$$$$
Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960s?

Are the reasons for buying homeowners, life or health insurance any different now than they were in the past? Financial insurance holds value, maybe in proportion to how much wealth is at risk. The amount of risk is a derivative of how much you possess and how secure whatever form of investment your wealth has taken. Isn't it nice that gold (and silver!) possession fills the need for insurance (against monetary theft) while also providing the potential for monetary gains. Were these gains a consideration when the POG was *fixed* at $35/ounce? Of course, only some could not imagine them.
Rich
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Common sense investing for common and uncommon times...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Gandalf the White
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
The GC2Z POG Price Settlement CONTEST !!!ELEVENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 11:15 Denver time 11/10/02
A total of 59 Prognostications to date !
Get your Number soon as the rush will be on MONDAY !
(As my Crystal Ball says that the total will be over 150 guesses !!!!!) (The Hobbits are scheduling overtime !)
--
Rule #6 says, "All �Guesses� MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th."
--
THEREFORE there are less than TWENTY-FIVE (25) Hours to go !!!! Don't miss this CONTEST, ---all you procrastinators !!!
<;-)
===

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---

THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/02; 09:27:27MT - msg#: 89191

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764

$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020
$$$$ 322.4 $$$$ ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - msg#: 89177

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767

$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ Yellow Metal (11/10/02; 05:49:21MT - msg#: 89185

$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892
$$$$ 320.7 $$$$ seagull (11/09/02; 21:47:22MT - msg#: 89176

$$$$ 320.5 $$$$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 315.6 $$$$ silvercollector (11/10/02; 06:58:06MT - msg#: 89188

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ Christian (11/10/02; 06:46:53MT - msg#: 89187

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)
===
<;-)

Prometheus
$$$$ 326.0 $$$$
I expect the POG will bump up against it's overhead resistance at $326 at least one more time before it begins the big move upward. That should happen sometime this week. Whether it happens by Tuesday, I'm not sure; but I'm going to go with that.

As to the question of whether buying gold today at $300+ is like buying at $35 in the 1960's, it seems that other posters have given the data indicating that, in inflation adjusted terms anyway, it's about the same. But I have a different thought to throw out for consideration. I think the POG supression is a good thing. The government stole the people's gold away from them at $22/oz. I think it should sell it back to us for the same price - ALL OF IT! I think they should push the price all the way down, at least to $35 at least, and then sell us back what they stole from us. The government shouldn't possess ANY of OUR gold! They should give ALL of it back, as cheaply as possible, and the the PEOPLE could set the proper price in worthless pieces of green paper for OUR gold, which I'm sure would be considerably higher than what the arrogant paper pushers would say it should be.

My two cents worth.

P.
Aristotle
Belgian, that was an excellent bit of reading
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ18Ak02.htmlI've been known to wander around in the ATimes archives when time allows, and I even remember walking past this series a time or two (the distinctive picture of G.W. Bush as emperor is a hard thing to miss or forget!!) but never paused long enough to read it.

Thanks for giving me just the push I needed to get the job done. It's a brilliant little package. I'll echo your call for everyone to add this to their reading list. It really fits in well with our recent discussion about the current nature and notions of "us guys" and "them guys" as we're all in the same boat.

To help anyone find it I've given the address of the third part of the series because it's the only part that also provides direct links to both of the other parts. Be sure to start with part one though when you get there because Sisci gives a delightfully linear presentation that you'll want to read beginning to end. It's a good lesson in morality and responsibility that every intelligent inhabitant of our planet (not a ship of fools, I hope!!) should weigh and consider in their own minds and hearts.

Gold. You know the routine. --- Ari
Ole Man
$$$$320.80$$$$
Compared to the 1960's buying gold in the USA today is relatively unchanged. This appears true for a couple of reasons. Ownership then was legal only for collectors. Most people had no interest because it was not part of their reality. Today, the situation is similar, thought people can own gold they are not interested because they do not recognize gold as money. While ownership is possible, it will take a little longer for the public to get a clue as to gold's store of value. Equity investors have yet to experience more loss before the dawn.
jimbojim39
US Dollar
Bloomberg's has an article today indicating that the USA dollar could fall to $1.20 per Euro BY THE END OF THE WEEK!! Looks like parity is dead and gone!!!
Yellow Jacket
$$$$$322.8$$$$$
Is buying gold today like buying at $35 in the late 60s?
In many ways yes.The price was set at35 in 1933 but the dollar lost much of its value by the 60s.That made gold at 35 undervalued at that time.If you compare the purchasing power of the dollar in 1933 to today,then gold is still undervalued at$320.
The main differerce between the 1960s and today is that deflation is in our future.
The CoinGuy
Jimbo, All
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APc59tRXCVS5TLiBEGood to be back in town, looks like I have a LOT of catching up to do, mail a mile thick, and lots of good posts to read.

Jimbo, took a cursory look at that article you mentioned, it looks as though there was a precursory to your statement.

snippit:

Dimming the outlook for the economy and the dollar, some investors are concerned about ``the effect of an action against Iraq having a devastating impact on consumer spending,'' said Charles Spence, director of foreign-exchange sales at ING Capital Markets LLC, who said the dollar may drop to $1.2050 per euro and to 116 yen in a week. ``We're seeing the bulk of the dollar selling coming from overseas,'' reflecting heightened concern, he said.


Gold, Got some...saw a nice box in that stack of mail(yeah!)

The(physical)CoinGuy
Boilermaker
"The American Empire" Francesco Sisci (parts:1/2/3).
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ18Ak02.htmlJust finished this essay recommended by Belgian and Ari. I concur with their advice; read it.

Boilermaker
Electrum
the guess
Greetings honorable host, Knights and ladys

Long time lurker first time poster;

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at 35 an ounce in the late 1960's?" NO !!!

If you can recall that era, it was a gentler time. There were economic problems on the horizon, but that generation was prepared to cope. My father worked in the automotive industry and there were several times in the 60s he was laid off from work. 4 children at home a wife that did not work or even drive.
He would calmly find odd jobs increase the size of the garden and do whatever was needed to get us by.
We had a 1959 Ford station wagon that was inherited when my grandfather passed away. In essence we had no real debt aside the house and that was pretty typical of our neighborhood. Most of the time there were no discretional dollars to spend or save. At that time to save was to sacrifice. As I view my current situation Gold and silver are purchased with discretionary dollars, I have forgone a vacation or two to add some bright shiny metal to the collection but don't view that as a sacrifice. Its an opportunity to purchase a parachute while riding the Hindenburg

Bankers in control for now $ 323.6

look at those yoyos thats the way they do it
they run the presses for the treasury
look at um thats what there doing
Fiat worth nothing so gold is free
Best regards to all E.

Just waking up
$$$$ 322.0 $$$$
Is buying gold now like buying gold at $35 an ounce in the late 1960s?

YES. In several important ways it is.


First, and most foundational, is the fact that in both cases the POG has been suppressed, for decades, to artificially low levels to preserve the dollar's role as the world's reserve currancy. In the late 1960s, as well as now, this suppression was coming to an end. Back then it led to a decade-long bull market in gold. There is reason to believe it will again.

In the late 1960s we were getting ready to enter a period of war, uncertainty, unrest and severe recession (1974), kinda like today.

The 1970s were marked by an inflationary destruction of paper assets, during which gold emerged as the premier means to protect wealth. Looks like it's going to be deja-vu all over again.

And, finally, buying gold now is like buying it in the late 1960s because the reasons and wisdom for buying gold have been unchanged for thousands of years and in every culture.

We watch expectantly,

Bob
Belgian
The Illusion ?
Reflexions on "The American Empire" > Asia Times :
Let us suppose that the ME oil comes under Western control and a dramatic decline of the POO (10$-15$) would create the necessary bout of optimism/euphory to quick-start, global or Western economy.
Two threaths will grow exponentially :
1/ 1,2 Billion, humiliated, islamists will plunge into further poverty.
See GDP figures for the whole ME region and growth of the population as to realize how poor they really are.
Terror cannot be eradicated and will continue to threathen any economic recovery.
2/ Russia cannot live with a POO ranging between 10$-15$.
They will react, in-directly to this event.
(Iraq oil costs 0,75 cts and Russian oil between 8$ and 10$-give or take on these figures).

Can this globe live and prosper with increasing terror, produced by 1,5 Billion people (ME+Russia) because of convenient low oilprices for Americas/Euroland/Japan/China ?

I fiend it difficult to believe, we can ?
Belgian
Farfel is Angry...
Courageous knight, Farfel, is angry about the GS-joke. Lucky, he hasn't read Tim Wood's comment on Denver, or he would be furious.
Why should we be angry when we regulary get our *indirect*, evidence that Gold, still is tremendously powerful. The evidence lies in the complete "absurd and idiotic" approach to Gold by insiders who really know much better than that ! That makes this public Gold-theatre, so terribly funny. Yes, for amusement only !

But it is bedtime and don't have the courage to elaborate much further on it. Knowing very well that a majority on this forum knows, what Gold stands for and isn't impressed, at all, with stunts � la GS. Was happy to see that Farfel is still alive and kicking.
Scarab
$$$$ 323.1 $$$$
Better or worse that $35? Better if you observe the vast amount of paper dollars that have been created over the last 10-15 yrs. Somehow the slate will have to be reconciled. And the time is approaching fast for the final reckoning. And a huge upset in the world financial system.
Mr. Bill
"The American Empire"
poppycock
Mr Gresham
Electrum: Money for Nothing
Quite an entry! Now I'm gonna have that song in my head all night. (Not complaining.) Now, what were those "4 G's" we're supposed to remember? Ah yes, Gold, Guitars, Girls, and uh, uh, -- Grateful Dead? (Somebody help me here... ;-) )
Cavan Man
The Big Fat Japanese Conundrum
What would they do without us?11/10 19:55
Yen May Fall After Kuroda Says Japan to Take Appropriate Action
By John Brinsley and Yumi Kuramitsu


Tokyo, Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen, little changed, may fall against the dollar after Haruhiko Kuroda, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Japan will take measures to stem the Japanese currency's rise against its U.S. counterpart.

``The yen's recent gain against the dollar is not appropriate and Japan will take appropriate action in the foreign exchange market,'' Kuroda said, raising concerns the Bank of Japan may sell yen.

Operative
@ Electrum, Welcome to the table!
Liked this part of your post a lot: "Its an opportunity to purchase a parachute while riding the
Hindenburg ".

Well said and it paints a vivid picture in the mind's eye.
Gandalf the White
ATTENTION and also "WELCOME" Sir Ole Man !!!
Ole Man (11/10/02; 12:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 89196)
$$$$320.80$$$$
==
Please be advised that your choice of #320.8 was previously taken by one Sir Basil, back on 11/06/02 !!!
Please, if you can, choose another number.
LOVE that handle !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
"WELCOME" Sir Electrum !!!
Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 89201)
Long time lurker first time poster;
===
An Historical Handle !!
Great to see you here.
<;-)
Waverider
Japan's current account surplus falls on slowing exports
http://asia.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=F5LZNT5AC2ID0CRBAEZSFFA?type=businessnews&StoryID=1710502Snippit:
'The surplus on Japan's current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, fell for the first time in a year in September as slowing exports threatened to remove the main prop from an economic recovery. Data released on Monday showed that the current account surplus fell 6.8 percent in September from a year earlier to 1.1705 trillion yen ($9.76 billion), putting an end to 11 straight months of growth and falling short of market forecasts. Economists had expected a surplus of about 1.28 trillion yen.

The fact that the current account surplus fell for the first time in a year shows that the prospect of an export-led economic recovery is receding," Shirota said. Rapid export growth that fuelled Japan's recovery from recession earlier this year is showing signs of stalling on the back of stagnant consumer demand in the United States, Japan's biggest export market. Growing tension between the United States and Iraq helped send the dollar lower late last week, putting traders on alert for possible yen-selling intervention by the Finance Ministry. Japan's top financial diplomat, Haruhiko Kuroda, said on Monday morning that recent foreign exchange movements had been "totally inappropriate".

Waverider: More on the economic blues in Japan - I see the Nikkei is off almost 2% tonight, and Mizuho Holdings (Japan's largest bank) is off more than 7% - Mizuho is due to report first-half earnings on Nov. 25.
Yukon
$$$$320.3$$$$
Having been born in 1969, I can only go by what I have read and understand about the history of our gold markets. As such, I think that there are many similarities between then(1960's) and now with respect to the gold price.

While most everyone knows that the price of gold was "fixed" at $35/ounce by our government back then, few realize today that even though gold trades around the clock and globe, our government still has listed on its books an official U.S. government price of $42/ounce. This does not really carry much weight with traders and holders of gold, as few would be nieve enough to part with their gold at the official price of $42/ounce when it is trading on the COMEX (even though it is mostly paper gold contracts that are traded there)at $320. But the fact that the U.S. gov. values its holdings at this absurd price is questionable at the very least.

Looking back and looking forward, I believe the present time period will indeed look very similar to the price pattern of the sixties carried forward to the big spike in the eighties. Hopefully, the next time the breakout occurs, there will be little for the powers that be to restrain its movement to its natural equilibrium.

While maintaining the value of our dollar should be foremost on our governments list of things to do, unfortunately for us, since they handed over monetary control to the private Federal Reserve, our best interest has been on the back burner and will remain there until full accountability returns to all who hold office. Only then will there be even a chance of a return to government of the people, by the people, and for the people!

Viva Liberty!

Yukon
MO VER MEG
$$$$ 318.90 $$$$
Buying gold today is unlike buying gold ever before. I do not believe there has ever been such a concerted effort to manipulate (derivatives to the extreme) the price of gold. Because of said manipulation, holding on to the physical is like climbing a greased pole. Whenever they shake the pole, I just struggle to hold on, continually changing my grip seeking traction. From this precarious perch, I am learning solitary discipline.
Aureo Speedwagon
$$$326.40$$$
In the late 1960s, the price of gold was fixed by the US government and it was illegal for US citizens to own gold bullion. Sure, Nixon's closing of the gold window was only a few years away, but hardly anybody had an inkling it was going to happen.

The biggest difference today is the Internet: it is possible for the average person to study the international gold market and realize the cataclysmic danger approaching.
Trurl
$$$$ 319,1 $$$$
Discussion:

Buying gold now is very different than buying it at $35/oz in the 1960's. Then as now no one knew the future, but then gold had been at least at $35 since 1934.

Look at the official BLS inflation stats at their web site.
We are currently ( 2002 ) *BELOW* the long time $20.67 price when the US lost it in 1933.

The basic thought is that we still don't know the future, but the spring has got to be coiled much tighter now than in the '60s.

SWEET 16
$$316.20$$
I think buying gold now is more fun than in those old days. Especially for women like those that write on this page. How many women do you think bought back then? You guys better get busy and start buying too - we aren't waiting for you.
Ole Man
Revised number!! $$$$321.80$$$$
I like this number cause it's higer, sorta like good whiskey and my age.I like this number cause it's higher, sorta like good whiskey and my age; da older da betta!
Brett Woods
(No Subject)
$$$$326.4$$$$
The pog might consolidate in the coming week at this higher level but the gold bull is definately here imo and with the usual volitility, looks like clear sailing until June 2004 with potential re-evaluation of this forcast around September 2003. Good luck to all!
Brett Woods
$$$$326.3$$$$
Oops! Sorry, Aureo Speedwagon. I'll go for this one then.
BILLYG
$$$$ 317.70 $$$$
$$$$ 317.70 $$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

I was just a kid at that time but I can remember when gold was hitting new highs (above 800.00) and a friend of the family's came over with a new gold coin. Now that I know him better it was a good indicator that the price was topping out. I remember when every one was cashing in all their silverware. Must have been quite the news event to remember it so clearly.
The reason my price is lower than the current price, looks to me the Gold Stocks are running into selling in here and may be in for a correction. I will probably start taking profits and short some tech stocks that also look over extended. I don't post often but I do read this message base every day. I appreciate the wisdom.
mikal
@SweetSixteen
Well said! Isn't it true that woman like gold? But talking about jewelry is taboo to many. But wait until those husbands find out what that jewelry box REALLY holds. As you may know, Michael Kosares sells BEAUTIFUL gold jewelry. Best regards.
Gandalf the White
Attention Sir Brett Woods !! A "Rule 7" need NOW !! <;-)
Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 89221)
$$$$326.3$$$$
Oops! Sorry, Aureo Speedwagon. I'll go for this one then.

Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 89220)
(No Subject)
$$$$326.4$$$$
The pog might consolidate in the coming week at this higher level but the gold bull is definately here imo and with the usual volitility, looks like clear sailing until June 2004 with potential re-evaluation of this forcast around September 2003. Good luck to all!
Sierra Madre
Questions about a cheaper dollar

TheCoinGuy in a post earlier today (#89199) quoted a snippit in which Charles Spence of ING Capital said he thought we might see the dollar at $1.20 to the Euro, in a week, due to heavy foreign selling.

That would mean that the dollar, instead of being worth some 99 euro-cents as of today, would be worth only 83 euro-cents.

Now the question we are about to see answered, is:

"Does a cheaper dollar mean CHEAPER GOLD?"

If the answer is "Yes" - and I don't think that's a reasonable answer, but, you never know - then we would see gold in Euroland at 266.66/oz (supposing the price in dollars remains at $320.) It does not seem reasonable to me, that a weakening dollar would drag down gold with it!

If the answer is "No", then we will see the dollar price of gold go UP, to $384, supposing gold in Euroland stays at 320 euros/oz. If it's the dollar that is weakening and being sold, it stands to reason that its power to purchase gold will also weaken, requiring more dollars to purchase an ounce. (However, strange things do happen...)

Which is it going to be? Of course, I am here supposing that Spence's prediction comes true. It does seem rather drastic, but...when confidence goes (I have seen this many times) it goes very quickly and nobody wants to be the last to leave a burning theatre.

The next week should provide us with much action. Stay tuned.

Sierra



harryo
gold contest
$$$$319.70$$$$ Buying gold today relates to the 60's value in two ways: Given inflation since that time the current price is probably pretty close to the purchasing power then. Also Gold would have been a bargain then and is one now. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the coming inflation will diminish the actual value of gold (as opposed to price), in US$, dramatically.
Blackjack
Japan: Trade Surplus Down 6.8% , Bad Loans up by $109 Billion
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873166702Tokyo stocks lost ground on Monday morning, as the banking sector took a hit after the country's financial regulator increased its assessment of their bad loan holdings.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 average lost 1.8 per cent to 8,534.89, while the broader Topix index was off 1.9 per cent to 845.98.

Japan's Financial Services Agency revealed over the weekend it believes bad loans at the country's banks are Y13,000bn ($109bn) greater than the banks say. The publication of the FSA's estimate rides roughshod over the sensitivities of senior executives at the country's largest banks and is likely to further sour relations between Heizo Takenaka, FSA head, and the banks' boards of directors.

The banking sector was off 3.5 per cent, with Mizuho Holdings, the world's biggest bank by assets, off 7.7 per cent to Y156,000. UFJ Holdings was down 8.9 per cent to Y143,000, while Sumitomo Mitsui was off 6.3 per cent to Y418.

Adding to the gloom was data released Monday morning that showed Japan's current account surplus � a broad measure of trade in goods and services � slipped 6.8 per cent in September, for the first time in a year. The data adds to mounting evidence that the country's fragile export-led recovery has peaked.

Japan's top exporters lost ground on the news, with Sony shedding 3.3 per cent to Y5,020 and Toyota Motor off 1.6 per cent to Y3,090. Honda Motor lost 4.9 per cent to Y4,100 and consumer electronics maker Sharp was off 2.1 per cent to Y1,080. Semiconductor maker Advantest was 4.3 per cent lower to Y4,680 and rival Tokyo Electron was down 5.4 per cent to Y5,010.
______
Asia markets tanking
Gold N Rule
$$$$320.60$$$$
No, I don't believe buying gold now is like buying it at $35 oz. in the late 1960's.
In the late 60's gold's price was designated @ $35/oz government's intervention on the price of gold was fixed
in part to mask the dollar's weakness.This was to change in 71' under Nixon when he abandoned the Bretton Woods agreement,
devalued the dollar and superficially raised the price of gold. This was done in part to prevent an International run on our gold
reserves which were quite reduced to support that $35/oz. benchmark price of gold, prior to this.

At this time, 71', Nixon freed the dollar to trade naturally against the other world currencies.This invited the opportunity to allow
unlimited trade and budget deficits.We were basically readily able to inflate the dollar cause the U.S. no longer had to deliver gold
on demand for dollars to other countries.Subsequent inflation blew the price of gold way up til it peaked in around 79'.

Today with a freefloating dollar and being faced with a rapidly mounting deficit, higher oil prices, deflation, mounting bankruptcies
and potential bank failures where they have to scramble to liquidate assets and repossess on bad debts as well as mounting
business costs limiting mine production there should be considerable pressure on gold to eventually go much higher. New demand
should surge as worried investors continue their bailing from equities and even bonds. The dollar not based on a gold standard like
days of ole will have to settle at a lower more realistic value. With the dollar lower there will be more ability and temptation for
nervous investors to seek out gold as a hedge againgst inflation and deflation alike.

Today investing in gold seems a potentially better investment than it was in the late 60's should we be on the brink of a full
scale global economic collapse which would not be the case in the 60's.This unique volcanic-like scenerio means it's likely gold
could be worth considerably more in a nearer term than it took gold to rise so much about a decade after the late 60's.


Gandalf the White
WELCOME Sir HarryO !!! <;-)
harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 89226)
===
GREAT to see you here !
<;-)
DOWNUNDER
ANYONE IN EUROPE SEE THESE FIGURES PUBLISHED?
(This was sent to me in an E/mail today --No Source)


On July 12,.the head of the IMF stated that the probability of a complete, global financial meltdown was ONE IN FIVE.

ONE IN FIVE. That is a VERY large number.

The Council on Foreign Relations in NY has been running
"scenario analyses" on global financial meltdown for the last nine months.Neither of these things was reported in the US media; both were only reported in the European press.
Gandalf the White
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!
POG Price Guessing CONTEST ---- Tick Tock, Tick Tock !!!!!!THIRTEENTH UPDATE <;-)
as of 22:20 Denver time 11/10/02
A total of 75 Prognostications to date !
Get your Number soon as the rush will be on MONDAY !
(As my Crystal Ball says that the total will be over 150 guesses !!!!!)
Rule #6 says, "All �Guesses� MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes "HIGH NOON" on MONDAY, November 11th."
THEREFORE there are less than THIRTEEN (13) Hours to go !!!!
Don't miss this CONTEST, ---all you procrastinators !!!
<;-)
===

The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6

(looks as if Sir 18K is "KING of the HILL", at this point !) <;-)
---

THE RULES --
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2002 Gold Contract (GC2Z) on the date of (revised) TUESDAY the 12th of November.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on (revised) MONDAY, November 11th.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ****** as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication, OR the price entry SHALL NOT BE CONSIDERED!
-- A short discussion (at least a thirty word paragraph) about the QUESTION --

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

----
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the December �02 (GC2Z) SETTLEMENT price on (revised) TUESDAY, November 12th ----- an ANTIQUE PRIZE of a German 20 Mark GOLD coin containing 0.2304 ounces of GOLD !!!
Look at one of these at this LINK supplied by The Town Crier --

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a U.S. SILVER EAGLE containing one ounce of PURE SILVER ! (Rich, Did you see that ?)

ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (11/5/02; 01:02:05MT - msg#: 88788

$$$$3,231.2$$$$ Clint H (11/04/02; 14:04:30MT - msg#: 88732

$$$$ 543.2 $$$$ Gandalf the White (11/04/02; 12:41:44MT - msg#: 88729

$$$$ 399.8 $$$$ Believer (11/4/02; 17:28:40MT - msg#: 88752

$$$$ 372.5 $$$$ techbull.... (11/05/02; 06:58:01MT - msg#: 88799

$$$$ 346.2 $$$$ drawmax (11/06/02; 07:57:48MT - msg#: 88893

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ Sundeck (11/4/02; 20:36:14MT - msg#: 88768

$$$$ 340.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (11/05/02; 02:17:40MT - msg#: 88793

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (11/05/02; 05:01:21MT - msg#: 88797

$$$$ 338.4 $$$$ gvc (11/04/02; 15:15:16MT - msg#: 88739

$$$$ 336.8 $$$$ PCV1 (11/04/02; 22:06:09MT - msg#: 88776

$$$$ 333.7 $$$$ auenboy (11/06/02; 22:37:19MT - msg#: 88950

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ BlackBart (11/04/02; 14:46:04MT - msg#: 88734

$$$$ 331.4 $$$$ Hipplebeck (11/07/02; 05:25:08MT - msg#: 88973

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (11/04/02; 21:02:31MT - msg#: 88769

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Rock (11/05/02; 15:57:42MT - msg#: 88837

$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ Kodie (11/04/02; 15:18:14MT - msg#: 88740
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ sangrelli (11/05/02; 07:36:17MT - msg#: 88800

$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ silvergolong (11/05/02; 16:29:06MT - msg#: 88841
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ Beach (11/04/02; 15:56:34MT - msg#: 88743
$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Aureo Speedwagon (11/10/02; 20:19:15MT - msg#: 89216
?*?* 326.3 ?*? Rule 7 Brett Woods (11/10/02; 20:45:32MT - msg#: 89221

$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Prometheus (11/10/02; 11:50:11MT - msg#: 89194

$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (11/05/02; 19:09:24MT - msg#: 88853
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (11/05/02; 13:13:06MT - msg#: 88828

$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ goldenpeace (11/8/02; 08:59:57MT - msg#: 89063

$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Cytek (11/04/02; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 88774

$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ R Powell (11/10/02; 09:27:27MT - msg#: 89191

$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Shermag (11/09/02; 19:13:41MT - msg#: 89168

$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ slingshot (11/5/02; 00:39:55MT - msg#: 88787
$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ Electrum (11/10/02; 14:55:29MT - msg#: 89201

$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (11/04/02; 12:57:35MT - msg#: 88730

$$$$ 323.2 $$$$ Blurrmoon (11/06/02; 12:30:20MT - msg#: 88908
$$$$ 323.1 $$$$ Scarab (11/10/02; 17:19:48MT - msg#: 89205

$$$$ 322.9 $$$$ GratefulForGold (11/4/02; 19:31:21MT - msg#: 88764
$$$$ 322.8 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (11/10/02; 12:46:40MT - msg#: 89198
$$$$ 322.7 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/08/02; 11:54:33MT - msg#: 89073

$$$$ 322.5 $$$$ NTgeo (11/07/02; 18:25:59MT - msg#: 89020
$$$$ 322.4 $$$$ ManAurum (11/09/02; 22:03:13MT - msg#: 89177

$$$$ 322.2 $$$$ Mountain Top (11/05/02; 09:40:22MT - msg#: 88808
$$$$ 322.1 $$$$ Liberty Head (11/4/02; 20:25:50MT - msg#: 88767
$$$$ 322.0 $$$$ Just waking up (11/10/02; 15:56:20MT - msg#: 89202
$$$$ 321.9 $$$$ Yellow Metal (11/10/02; 05:49:21MT - msg#: 89185
$$$$ 321.8 $$$$ Ole Man (11/10/02; 20:38:04MT - msg#: 89219
$$$$ 321.7 $$$$ 18K (11/04/02; 15:08:52MT - msg#: 88738
$$$$ 321.6 $$$$ Noble1 (11/05/02; 18:43:59MT - msg#: 88851

$$$$ 321.4 $$$$ a nation of one (11/07/02; 14:52:32MT - msg#: 88999

$$$$ 321.2 $$$$ kludge (11/4/02; 18:41:45MT - msg#: 88763

$$$$ 321.0 $$$$ Tevye (11/07/02; 16:28:05MT - msg#: 89012
$$$$ 320.9 $$$$ MoonHowler (11/08/02; 10:42:45MT - msg#: 89069
$$$$ 320.8 $$$$ Basil (11/06/02; 07:36:14MT - msg#: 88892
$$$$ 320.7 $$$$ seagull (11/09/02; 21:47:22MT - msg#: 89176
$$$$ 320.6 $$$$ Gold N Rule (11/10/02; 21:59:18MT - msg#: 89228
$$$$ 320.5 $$$$ mudr (11/08/02; 09:59:11MT - msg#: 89067

$$$$ 320.3 $$$$ Yukon (11/10/02; 20:11:26MT - msg#: 89214
$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ NEMO me impune lacessit (11/06/02; 12:17:07MT - msg#: 88906

$$$$ 320.0 $$$$ Bound Spirit (11/06/02; 23:58:53MT - msg#: 88957
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (11/05/02; 09:30:05MT - msg#: 88806
$$$$ 319.8 $$$$ barnaclebob (11/04/02; 14:49:06MT - msg#: 88735
$$$$ 319.7 $$$$ harryo (11/10/02; 21:50:09MT - msg#: 89226

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ Nibelung (11/06/02; 15:33:42MT - msg#: 88926
$$$$ 319.4 $$$$ SilverHoard (11/05/02; 16:07:31MT - msg#: 88839

$$$$ 319.2 $$$$ steady (11/04/02; 16:50:45MT - msg#: 88748
$$$$ 319,1 $$$$ Trurl (11/10/02; 20:19:57MT - msg#: 89217

$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ MO VER MEG (11/10/02; 20:17:16MT - msg#: 89215

$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ VanRip (11/05/02; 11:34:35MT - msg#: 88820

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Frosty (11/05/02; 18:03:57MT - msg#: 88848

$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ BILLYG (11/10/02; 21:04:59MT - msg#: 89222

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ Albatros (11/05/02; 08:38:52MT - msg#: 88803

?*?* 316.7 Rule 7 nickel62 (11/06/02; 09:04:02MT - msg#: 88896

$$$$ 316.4 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (11/05/02; 16:51:51MT - msg#: 88843

$$$$ 316.2 $$$$ SWEET 16 (11/10/02; 20:36:10MT - msg#: 89218

$$$$ 315.6 $$$$ silvercollector (11/10/02; 06:58:06MT - msg#: 89188

$$$$ 315.0 $$$$ Christian (11/10/02; 06:46:53MT - msg#: 89187

$$$$ 307.5 $$$$ Topaz (11/06/02; 02:55:05MT - msg#: 88883

===

Your Attention Please ! The Master of the Castle, SIR MK is pleased to announce that there shall be a new "PRICE OF GOLD GUESSING CONTEST".

ALL Goldhearts present are invited to enter. The ONLY requirement is that, One must be able to POST to the Forum in order to enter. LURKERS, therefore must obtain a required FREE "Password" by visiting the webpage at:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html

and reading the Guidelines and Prohibitions sections, and then completing the REGISTRATION form and submitting. (Rather painless too.)

===
<;-)

Gold N Rule
$$$$320.6
In case you didn't want $$$$320.60$$$$ with the 0 on the end of my quote I'm correcting the message #88587
Gold N Rule
$$$$320.6$$$$
Did I finally get it correct??????
Gandalf the White
Sir Gold N Rule's "correction" statement ! <;-)
No problemo !! They are the SAME !
Either meets Rule #3 !
<;-)
The CoinGuy
Sierra, ALL...
I believe the precursor in the article referred to a decline in the dollar to that level if the US attacked Iraq. This # he states seems to be a little steep for me. An orderly decline would benefit both sides. Although, I found it very interesting the ECB, and the BOE stood pat. Perhaps, a reinforcement of a better managed currency model? The problem is, as brought forth on this table. I believe the world will run to the "best managed currency" as war with Iraq breaks out. I remember FOA stating to Au Spec, and the rest of us on the Trail that a war will seriously shorten the remainder of the dollars timeline as a reserve.

Entirely to many wildcards out there...

After reviewing some of the archives tonight, I see a lot has happened since I left. Ari is tossing them out hot and heavy. Nice one Ari. Also, Belgian is putting 'em in there as well. Nice to see original thinking. Quite a few new faces. Hello to all that are new around the table!

The (physical)CoinGuy
DOWNUNDER
THE GLASS STEAGALL ACT -- (From the same source)

You might recall that over the last couple of years I have warbled on about the Glass Steagall Act. It was established in 1933 to separate deposit banking and investment banking - for reasons I outlined in the IWL Morning Report on October 6th, 2001 (a little over a year ago - I have attached the text to this e-mail...).

It turns out that Wall Street banks spent THREE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS (in campaign contributions and so on) lobbying for the repeal of Glass Steagall.

Three hundred million. Little wonder the US is on the same track as Argentina.
-----------------------------------------------------------
WRITTEN BY ANALYST OCT 6th 2001 --NOTHING'S CHANGED!
A SAD COMMENTARY ON GREED & BLIND PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE (DU)



There is one extraordinarily good reason for people to sell US dollars � namely, that its markets have been perverted to suit the joint whims of Wall Street and the US bureaucracy. BY 'bureaucracy' I don't mean President Bush, Vice President Cheney, or any of the folks who carry on the business of government; I am talking about Greenspan (so what else is new) and his ego.

Folks should realise that the market has never been 'free' � in the sense of 'unfettered'. For a while � particularly between 1933 and 1989, when the Glass Steagall Act was in force � is was 'open' in the sense of transparency of the objectives of its participants. However the abandonment of the Glass-Steagall strictures on investment banks, and the 'buddy buddy' nature of relations between Wall Street insiders (and I use the word deliberately) and the Fed and the US Treasury, have so corrupted this market that the entire system is at the most significant risk since 1932 � or perhaps even since 1895.

Interestingly, it was at this time (1895) when the incestuous relationship between Wall Street banks and the US Government was first cemented, with John Pierpont Morgan meeting with US President Grover Cleveland to organise a 'bailout' of the US Treasury � which was experiencing a run on gold. Morgan organised a syndicate through which the US would issue Treasury bonds.

Morgan's 'assist' to the US Treasury in 1895 was repaid in part by a regulatory framework which simply 'looked the other way' during the bull market of the 1920's (by which time JP was dead). The resultant chicanery was responsible in no small part for the 1929 meltdown in the market (although it bears no responsibility at all for the Depression).

Morgan's name remains a 'legacy asset' for JP Morgan, which is now JPMorganChase, the most leveraged financial institution in US history. Where LTCM was leveraged to 300 times its equity, JPMorganChase has notional derivative exposure equal to 450 times its market cap and 1350 times the book value of its equity. Where John Pierpont Morgan was an avid believer in gold as an asset, JPMorganChase has short gold derivative positions which dwarf annual gold production.


The chicanery which Glass and Steagall sought to prevent, is all happening again. And nobody should pretend that this manipulation is an attempt to shore up the economy; it is simply to prevent the return to fair valuation of this over-hyped market.

Major brokerages have continued to pump massive Fed liquidity injections straight into the futures market (thereby magnifying the effect on equities quite massively thanks to leverage � which is ironic since it is their leveraged exposure through other derivatives which is to be their final undoing).
This chicanery � borne of desperation and executed in full knowledge that it is probably futile � will serve only to prolong the pain of economic adjustment, and will not hold the market up in the face of an economy which is dragging earnings down the steepest cliff I have ever seen. Despite all the maundering baloney about how retail investors should be buying this market, and how short-sellers are responsible for the recession, we still see blatant manipulation of financial markets on a scale which is unprecedented since the before the 1933 introduction of the Glass Steagall Act � and in fact probably the largest scale the introduction of laws against insider trading and market manipulation. It is also unprecedented in that the US Federal Reserve � the supposedly august institution charged with regulating the US Payments System � is a willing participant, basically giving money away at below the Fed Funds target, in full knowledge that it will be used as I described. It has even gone so far as to slow the release of its repurchase data, so that market participants have no idea how much money was pumped into the market until hours after it happens.
It's worth noting that several of the major aims of the Glass Steagall Act have amazingly direct relevance to the present situation. By trying to prevent commercial banks from dealing in securities, the Act sought to obviate -
�Conflicts of interest and other abuses of trust.
�Excess risk-adoption by commercial bank: the Federally provided deposit insurance and access to discount window borrowings at the Federal Reserve permit and even encourage banks to take greater risks than are socially optimal. Permitting trading and advice in securities was thought problematic since commercial banks are protected by this federal 'safety net'.
�Unfair competition and concentration of market power. Banks get subsidized federal deposit insurance which gives them access to 'cheap' deposit funds. Thus they have market power and can engage in cross-subsidization that would give them an unfair competitive advantage over non-bank competitors (e.g. Securities brokers and underwriters) if they were permitted to offer investment banking services.

Interestingly, most of the major market makers are linked directly or indirectly to a major bank; all four of the dominant houses on Wall Street have access to the discount window, and have been using it like blazes this past month.

OCT 2001
Blackjack
Asia in deep slide
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uTokyo, Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell last quarter as slumping exports prompted companies such as Advantest Corp. to curb investment.

Machinery orders, an early indicator of business investment, fell 1.7 percent last quarter from the previous three-month period, seasonally adjusted, government figures showed. In September, orders rose 12.7 percent from the previous month after dropping 13.6 percent in August.

The world's second-largest economy is counting on investment by its companies to power growth as falling wages and job cuts shake consumer confidence and spending, economists said. A rebound from the third recession in a decade may be cut short by slowing growth in the U.S., Japan's biggest overseas market.

``Everything hinges on the outlook for the U.S. economy,'' said Tatsuya Torikoshi, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. ``September's increase was a rebound from August's big decline, and production will probably start falling by the beginning of next year.''

Falling sales prompted Advantest, the world's biggest maker of memory-chip testing equipment, to cut 600 jobs after announcing a loss in the six months to Sept. 30. Equipment sales will probably fall in the fiscal second half, the company said.

U.S. growth will slow to a 2.2 percent annual rate this quarter from an expected 3.6 percent pace in the third quarter as consumer spending cools, according to a consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

``The outlook is quite grim,'' said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd.
The CoinGuy
$$$$323.80$$$$
Is it better to be purchasing gold now or in the 60's?

Interesting Question. Does it make any difference? Yes, I believe it does. The world wasn't in the post bubble stage of the most overpriced stock market ever in history. Not to mention tech bubble, credit bubble, dollar bubble and bond bubble. In the 60's I believe most individuals were looking for asset appreciation, now were looking for asset protection. I personally don't care if gold goes sky high(a side benefit), it is the ultimate insurance. Like I always say during each contest. The only asset w/o liabilities, a complete asset in your hand. Not tied to any systemic risks.

You surely won't see it's CEO doing the perp walk either.

The CoinGuy
Gandalf the White
Question Sir Blackjack --- Where have we heard that statement before ?
``The outlook is quite grim,'' said Takehiro Sato, an economist at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd.
---
<;-)
Blackjack
@ Sir Gandalf the White
"Grim and Bear it!"
Aristotle
Mr. Bill says the Sisci article is "poppycock" (msg#: 89206)
Wowzers! How long have you been such an American-hater, Mr. Bill?

I ask because I can't easily think of any other bias you could've carried into it to walk away with that vague and outright dismissal.

If you're not a hater of America and Americans, then I'm guessing instead that you read only as far as the first half of the first page. Yeah... I sure hope that's it, 'cause nothing gets under my skin more than bigoted American-haters and any other individual who similarly hates with broad sweeping brush strokes.

A discussion can't get much mileage if you don't give us more fuel than "poppycock."

Gold. Elaborate you some. --- Aristotle
Brett Woods
$$$$326.3$$$
My appologies Sir Gandalf for any agregious omission in my previous prognostication. In answer to the question, "Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?" Yes, I've thought that for two years!
There was a very big pullback relative to the price movement then before the big take off. Not unlike what happened over the summer. But for gold to go over 400 and rise to 700 will take a kind of trigger. Currencies are all falling, Japan is bankrupt, China bankrupt, Russia is bankrupt and has taken the whole former USSR with it. South America? Africa? What country has been successfull with currency? The world is now opening a sleepy eye to dollar hegemony and the awakening is going to be rude.

But, that's not enough. These situations can languish for decades. If there is a strong second leg down in U.S. and european equity markets coupled with any irrational or draconian public policy foreign and domestic, then that will be the signal for me that we will likely see numbers in the DOW and Gold, not like the 60's but like the 80's first (meaning the reciprical or mirror image of the trends these two had in the 80's) There's still a lot holding back the rocket ride of the 70's, namely computers giving us eyes and ears, greater liquidity of market and complex hedges and derivatives that weren't around then. Obviously I'm as clear as mud here, but i'm rushing to make up my guessing deficiency. :)
Black Blade
$$$$321.10$$$$

"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"


Yes, more or less. Actually considering the furious pace of inflation through the 1970's and 1980's, and the less pronounced rate of inflation since, it is similar. As far as portfolio insurance is concerned and the numerous pitfalls that lay ahead ranging from currency instability, economic worries, imploding stock markets, and geopolitical tensions, gold is a screaming bargain at current prices.

- Black Blade
mikal
Price Guessing Contest
$$$$$321.5$$$$$
How is gold in the 60's comparable to gold today? In many ways, as we can see from our contestant/contributers.
Gold's significance today is it's ageless function for ordinary people, both symbolic and tangible. A benchmark of progress valued by natural law alone.
timbervision
$$$$321.3$$$$
""Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?""

I think there is no doubt that many parallel's exist...for a Westerner. Most of the Western currencies have been able to maintain their value, to some degree, with respect to the U.S. dollar. So a highly under-priced ounce of gold should bring rewards as the US dollar devalues. However, I know that I am paying close to $500 Canadian for an ounce of gold compared to an American who only has to pay $320. If I was from any one of a number of third world countries, I wonder how relatively expensive it would be for them to buy one ounce of gold. How many hours does the average Mexican have to work to buy one ounce today compared to in 1968? Would a family in places like China, India, the Middle East, etc. be well advised to put their own fiat into gold or would it be better spent buying other real assets that are produced in their own country. When the financial detonation occurs what happens to this huge disparity in foreign exchange rates. Will there be a coming back together of world exchange rates?

My question. Does the answer depend, at least in part, on where you live?
Blackjack
$$$$323.9$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the late 1960's ?"Yes, I think the analogy is close.

With interest rates where they are in the US and soon coming
down from the ECB there will be few places to invest as
a safe haven.

With the US Dollar weakening, this could eventually lead to
a surge in inflation. The US imports a lot of energy/goods and there
will have to be price increases or exporters will suffer even
more in lost profits due to a weaker US Dollar.

Exporters like Japan will suffer from a weak dollar and this puts
the world economy in a downward spiral. A weaker dollar should
help US exporters but in the past it has not helped much.

Stagflation could be the result with weakening economies and
prices rising with weaker buying power of paper money.

When the ECB cuts again, European Bonds will look less attractive and more money will find its way into GOLD and SILVER!
Gandalf the White
Sir Timbervision's Question !!
timbervision (11/10/02; 23:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 89245)
""Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35 an ounce in the very late 1960's ?""

My question. Does the answer depend, at least in part, on where you live?
=====
BRAVO !!!
<;-)
Liberty Head
Gold vs Oil

Greetings one and all,

I have this nagging bearish thought about gold.

If the U.S. were to "find" a vast quantity of oil, equivalent, say, to all the oil in Iraq, wouldn't that put a significant downward pressure on the POG?


Can anyone here help me exorcize my bearish demons?

Thank You
Waverider
***** $320.40 *****
Is buying Gold now like buying it at $35.00 in the late 1960?

In some ways yes, as there is also the potential for appreciation as was the case when purchased in the late 60s, but for different reasons (derivatives, hedging, debt, etc, etc,). What makes it different today are two things - the benefits of ownership will be more pronounced when economically the proverbial SHTF, and the collegiality of ownership - the internet has provided a median where like-minded individuals may conglomerate, share information, ideas, and learn.
Black Blade
Richard Russell Takes Off The Gloves
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp?guid={14AD2C24-DD46-41A6-AB17-4F1B70739D69}
Snippit:

Thursday, after gold started strong and was driven back below $320 an ounce, Russell took of the gloves: "It's obvious that someone, some group, somebody, does NOT want gold above 320. Who the hell are they? Is it the Fed that wants to cover up its frantic attempts to reinflate? Is it the gold-mining companies that are still hedged and therefore don't want gold to rise until they can get rid of the hedges? Is it the Commercials who are net short? Just who are they?"

But Russell takes the long view -- maybe that's the advantage of age: "Look, I believe gold and gold shares are in the early accumulation phase of a bull market... [I] tell subscribers, 'Use this area to accumulate whatever gold and whatever gold shares you want to hold. Take this obvious gold manipulation as a chance to buy gold at what I consider dirt cheap levels.'" Russell's long-standing view: all such attempts to control market forces fail. Eventually.

Commenting on Friday's action, Russell wrote: "Gold now on a 'buy' signal, being well above its 50-day M[oving] A[verage]. Nevertheless, the resistance to gold moving higher is incredible. You can almost feel it." Actually, it didn't take much "feeling." The end of the week saw a huge COMEX volume spike, with kamikaze sellers crashing onto buyers, so that, after a lot of smoke and flame, the actual price barely moved. One persistent rumor is that major banks, notably JP Morgan Chase, are in trouble with their gold derivatives positions, and that their death throes are bloodying the waters.


Black Blade: That's the persistent rumor that I keep hearing too. It is always that some bank � notably JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs that enters into the market to sell down gold on a rally.

Blackjack
Found an ETF for Gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=XGD.TO&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=lBarclays has an ETF for Gold
iShares
XGD
It trades on Toronto exchange XGD.to for those in US.
Link above for Yahoo quote.
Black Blade
Asian Markets Get Hammered
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets got creamed in overnight trade. Euro markets look to thrashed at the open as well. There is no real reason for the markets to move into positive territory now. The global economy is sick and on life support. Note that the U.S. dollar is on shakey ground too. It should get "interesting" this week.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Market Index Futures Lower
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
The US market futures point to a lower opening, oil is higher, the USD is very weakly higher, and gold is off about a dollar. Looks like a lot of "entertainment" on tap for today.

- Black Blade
Sierra Madre
Liberty Head: will control of M.E. oil allow the US to keep gold down?

I have myself felt this same nagging doubt, and have spoken about it on this Forum. However, reviewing this doubt again at this late hour, I reflect as follows:

The U.S. is faced with several simultaneous enormous problems. I list some - perhaps I do not list all:

1. Enormous foreign debt
2. Persistent and gigantic fiscal deficits.
3. Persistent and gigantic trade and commercial account deficits with the rest of the world.
4. A rapidly increasing M3 and its components, M1 and M2
5. Enormous - one runs out of adjectives for "bigness"!- internal debt: corporate, state, personal.
6. A consumer which is heavily in debt and is reported to be just about maxed out.
7. A huge housing bubble, about to pop.
8. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac indebtedness now rivals that of the whole Federal Government.
9. A stock market which is still vastly overvalued.
10.No sign of improving profitabiity for companies.
11.Persistent lay-offs (rising unemployment)
12.A war at the doorstep, which will exacerbate fiscal imbalances, spending of money created out of nothing to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, maybe hundreds.

Will control of oil correct or alleviate these problems? Oil is certainly extremely important, but the mismanagement of finance and money and the malinvestment it has promoted for at least a decade - can oil counterbalance excessive debt and debauching the currency?

I doubt it. A speedy victory in Iraq (and in war, nothing is entirely certain, no matter that the leaders of the U.S. seem to have in mind a kind of "computer game war", where everything is done on a screen and the player doesn't ever get hurt) a speedy victory in Iraq MIGHT lower the price of gold for a few weeks (a buying opportunity!) but can scarcely hold it down against all the fundamentals that are so much against the U.S. dollar.

If you have gold, sleep well. You have done all you can do!

Sierra


Black Blade
Japan Ready to Intervene as Dollar Weakens Vs Yen
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_forex_intervention_1.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese monetary authorities are expected to step into the currency market soon to try to lift the dollar against the yen so as to help protect Japanese exports, dealers and analysts say. They worry that a stronger yen could choke off growth in what have been the main factor leading Japan's economic recovery. Dealers said the outlook for the dollar was increasingly bearish due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprising half-point rate cut last Wednesday, tensions surrounding Iraq and volatility in the U.S. equity market. "The authorities seem to be seeking the best time now to intervene, as they do not want to do it in vain," said Tomoko Fujii, an economist at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney.

Black Blade: So go the currency wars. Talk about being "caught between a rock and a hard place", the Japanese want to lower the yen for their export driven economy and yet the American consumer is tapped out. Everyone is in the same boat.

Belgian
RE:
@ Liberty Head # 89249: Yes, Sir...
***IF*** if,if,if, the occupation of Iraq (regime change) happens without significant counter-shocks, and the POO comes down substantially (10$/15$) for a prolonged period (6 months), than POG might (!!!) come down for reasons of dollar-strength. But I very strongly doubt that it will /can be "significant" !
Supposing that the "military" operation will be succesful is as far as I dare to go. The aftermath will be a disaster.

@Downunder #89230 : IMF/CFR - Global financial meltdown :
No Sir, haven't seen these figures or scenarios.
But this meltdown is simply a crashing of the US$ exchange rate and I think that Euroland doesn't want it to happen, YET !? As I don't see the advantage (for the time being) of having the �/$ exchange rate going from present parity to the suggested 1,20 (Bloomberg). We are all still trying to avoid the global economic collapse and still hoping that a soft (hum) landing (crash) is a possibility. That's why the military operation in the ME, "MUST" be succesful ! Politically it is a guarantee for disaster.
Dollar-Panic is to be avoided for the benifit of us all.
POG-Gap will signal when the total collapse is knocking on the door.
Black Blade
Stocks, Dollar Slide as Iraq Mulls Reply
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_asia_4.html
Snippit:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares tumbled on Monday, losing up to three percent in Tokyo, South Korea and Taiwan, as poor Japanese economic data, a weaker U.S. dollar and concern over a U.S. confrontation with Iraq shook investor confidence. Fears a new U.N. resolution on Iraq weapons inspections could lead to war helped send the dollar to a two-month low against the yen and fueled fresh gains in oil prices.

Black Blade: World markets are taking a beating this morning. I see that Iraqi foreign minister Taraq Aziz is making noise about the UN sanctions and thumbing his nose at the U.S. again. I talked to friend last night and he tells me that his brother and a couple of our friends have been "called up" for military service. Should get "interesting".

Black Blade
Stocks Seen Settling, Eyes on Consumer
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021110/column_stocks_outlook_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are poised to fall this week on the heels of the first down week for the broad market in more than a month, though key consumer spending numbers may end up steering the market's direction as investors fret about where the sputtering economy is headed. With corporate earnings season winding down and a strong run-up in stocks behind them, investors are looking to take a breather, experts said. "The market got a little bit overdone and then settled down and I think we might see a little bit more of that in the next couple of days," said Frank Gretz, market analyst and technician at New York brokerage Shields & Co.

Still, the market will certainly be taking cues this week from a Wednesday speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and any news that could signal an impending U.S. military strike on Iraq. Economic data will also be center stage, most notably the October retail sales figures due Thursday, which are expected to rise. A Reuters survey put the month-on-month increase at 0.2 percent, excluding car sales, or flat with autos included. Another key figure for the market, the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence, is due on Friday. A Reuters poll put the preliminary November index at 81.3, up from 80.6 for October.


Black Blade: The economic data is simply "grizzly" and the outlook is grim. Instead of focusing on retail sales improving from the prior week, they should look how it compares to last year as sales will likely improve going into the holiday season. It is expected that sales will be pathetic compared to last year as consumers are pulling in their horns as layoffs continue and the outlook is not very good.

Black Blade
Derivatives growing rapidly
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/021111/1035873163866_1.html
Snippit:

The derivatives market continues to grow at a rapid pace according to the latest research by the Bank for International Settlements, led by the strong demand for interest-rate hedging products. Derivatives is one of the few areas of the financial markets currently enjoying good health, and most bankers in the industry are expecting large bonuses this year while many of their equity and bond market colleagues face sweeping redundancies. The BIS says the total outstanding size of the over-the-counter derivatives market stood at almost $128,000bn at the end of June in terms of notional value. This is an increase of 15 per cent from the size of the market at the end of 2001. The market expansion was largely driven by a 16 per cent rise in the volume of interest rate derivatives, the largest segment of the OTC market. Outstanding interest rate products totalled $90,000bn at the end of the first half, compared with $67,500bn a year earlier


Black Blade: The maddening pace is picking up as bankers frantically paper over the markets. Looks like they are losing their grip on reality and pursue fantasy. This is going beyond crazy � it's insane!

Boilermaker
$$$$$ 322.3 $$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

Yes and no for the many reasons already offered. My favorites; Yes because we have gold selling below replacement cost (at least for many marginal producers) and we've had years of inventory liquidation (above and below ground) by CB's and producers to suppress the price. No because we now have much greater leverage applied through derivitives that will cause near instantaneous meltup.

I might add that silver may have an even more compelling price outlook if you consider that its price ratio, current to 1960's, is only 3.5 whereas gold has risen by a factor of 9.1

Good luck to all

Boilermaker
Black Blade
Russian central bank issues new gold, silver coins
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=34271330&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:

Moscow, 11 November: The Central Bank of Russia today put into circulation the gold coin with the denomination of 25 roubles and the silver coin with the denomination of 2 roubles in the "Signs of the Zodiac" series, with the image of Sagittarius depicted on both coins, the bank's external and public relations department reported on Tuesday [as received]. The gold coin, with gold mass content of 3.11 g, is hallmarked 999, and the silver coin, with silver mass content 15.55 g, is hallmarked 925.


Black Blade: Another alternative for Russian goldbugs.

Black Blade
Dollar Hits Fresh Lows
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_forex_2.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar racked up another series of multi-month lows against major currencies on Monday, as U.S. economic worries and prospects for a U.S. war with Iraq outweighed the growing risk of Japanese dollar-buying intervention. The dollar slid to three-month lows versus the euro and two-month lows against the yen, ignoring warnings by top Japanese financial diplomat Haruhiko Kuroda the yen's rise was inappropriate. "We're seeing broad based dollar weakness and the break of key technical levels is opening the way for a further move lower," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas. "There's no specific news today but concerns over the U.S. economic outlook have increased following the Fed's move last week."


Black Blade: Well now, this is interesting. Of course the USD probably should be in the 80 to 90 range. We will have to see how this turns out now that the ECB and BOE decided not to lower interest rates and foreign investments return home for the higher rate of return.

Blackjack
Credit Report
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=17279Recent "debate" is increasingly reminiscent of the late 1920s and early 1930s, to the point of being eerie.� Regrettably, the earlier wrangling about prices, markets, and monetary management was anything but satisfactorily resolved.�

In the end, the Monetarists won and history (and curriculums) was revised to blame the Depression on a shortage of money and liquidity.� They got it absolutely wrong.� Amazingly, virtually no one is today willing to admit that Federal Reserve policy has been an unmitigated disaster, with the meter still running (time and a half for overtime!).� What we have today is so far removed from sound money, with the lunatics directing the governors of the asylum to pump in only stronger laughing gas.�

There is today an overwhelming consensus that there are no costs associated with Fed rate cuts, thus every reason to aggressively cut to the bare bones and quickly.� While our central bankers were determined to avoid learning lessons from the Japanese Bubble experience, they do appreciate that it is expedient to "learn" from their dismal post-Bubble struggle � the key is to move early and move aggressively.� But the Fed is only feeding the gluttonous financial sphere to death.

The big problem we have with all of this is that our analysis convinces us that this is precisely the recipe that led to a hopelessly deranged financial sphere that was resolved with the 1930s financial collapse and Depression. It is my view that the post 9/11 aggressive rate cuts (and consequent blow-off in mortgage finance and Credit market speculative excess) were an even greater mistake than the post-Russia/LTCM cuts and "reliquefication" that fueled the fateful technology/stock market speculative blow-off.�

And, amazingly, no one will step up and admit we have set course for financial disaster.� Sure, ultra-easy money stimulated unprecedented household borrowings, with a spike in home and auto sales.� We will now pay the price for artificially inflating housing and auto demand.�

It was absolutely irresponsible monetary policy to actively stimulate consumer over-borrowing and spending in this manner � a desperate attempt to Sustain Unsustainable boom-time demand.� It's been little more than a dangerous monetary gamble with great risk and NO possibility for success.�
Black Blade
Oil Rises as U.S. Warns Iraq
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021111/markets_oil_2.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday as the United States warned Iraq that one false move in complying with the United Nations resolution on weapons inspections would lead to a military strike against the Middle East oil power. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures in London rose 57 cents to $24.15 a barrel, while U.S. light crude gained 47 cents to $26.25, building on Friday's gains. U.S. National Security adviser Condoleezza Rice said on Sunday Iraq would be held to a "zero tolerance" standard on arms inspections under a new U.N. resolution approved last Friday, with any breach triggering "serious consequences." U.S. officials also said President Bush had approved plans involving 200,000 troops for the invasion of Iraq if it failed to comply. "Prices are up on the fairly hawkish talk over the weekend -- the spectre of war is starting to loom larger again," said analyst Steve Turner of Commerzbank.


Black Blade: Four more days to accept the resolutions. Even then it is very likely that the inspectors will be turned back at some sites.

kludge
Veteran's Day
To any US Veterans that may be posters or lurkers here, and especially to those that "aren't here":

We Remember - THANK YOU.
Hipplebeck
forex
I've asked this before, and I don't know how to find out the answer, so maybe someone can help.
If the US wants to support the dollar, how do they do it?
I know that the Japanese sell yen and buy dollars in their intervention in the forex markets, but they are trying to lower the value of yen. If they wanted to support the yen, then they would sell dollars and buy yen. They are known to have dollar reserves. It would seem that the US would at some time in the future need to support the dollar if the imbalances in the current account area ever begin to rebalance. How would they do this? Is there a vault full of euros and yen somewhere, or would they have to sell gold?
Gimli_
$$$$ 322.6 $$$$
"Is buying Gold now like buying it at $35.00 in the late 1960?"

YES in terms of inflation adjusted dollars, but NO in terms of potential collapse of the US$ which would obviously make physical gold cost many times more dollars.

IF the USA's attempts under the caption "War of Terrorism" does not succeed in keeping the trade of oil pegged to the US$ around $30, then inflation will return as it did in the 70s. Gold will spike and then settle at a higher inflation adjusted price.

IF the US suffers some military/political catastrophe that causes oil trade to decouple from the US$ (for any number of causes as have been detailed by others on this forum), then a total dollar collapse (like what happened in Russia after the Berlin Wall came down) could result. Gold would then surge much higher and remain a store of real wealth in whatever newly (or even totally new) valued currency replaces the current US$.

If the USA does succeed in solving all the economic, political, and millitary problems in the present world, then gold will at least be worth what it costs now--so you can't really lose anything (unless the government takes it). ;-0)
Paper Avalanche
POG today
The chart on Kitco looks like a clash of the titans.
Genoo
$$$319.60$$$
The answer to the question posed is yes and no. Buying Gold now is equivelant to buying gold at $35 in the sixties in that the lid on the gold price is about to blow off resulting in a many-fold increase in the price, just like what happened some three decades ago. At the same time, in the sixties, there was no fear of a global deflation/deprssion scenario as there surely is today.
Wky_Woodsman
Contest
$$$$323.3$$$$

Gold today is, just as gold in the late sixties simply was gold. In the late sixties, I received as a wedding present from my Dad: a Double Eagle, an Eagle, a half eagle and a quarter eagle, pre-1933. Those precious coins were all the gold that anyone in my immediate family(all wage earners) had ever held in their hands. Today we have so much more opportunity to hold a larger quantity of gold in the form of bullion, than in the numismatic form. What a great opportunity at these prices! Yet as most here have related, so few will even acknowledge that gold is valuable.

In a paper world of deceit and illusion, remember that GOLDistruth!
Wky_Woodsman
Veterans Day
To all my follow veterans who have served our country I thank you for your service, and I salute you.

Wky
Wky_Woodsman
Correction
Make that my fellow veterans. The eyesight isn't what it used to be.
Shanti
$$$$323.30$$$$
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's ?"

To me, sec to the figures, it's NO. But if i look deeper into it, it's gona be even worse,

1) a differend period of time-spirit
2) a more (un)develloped culture
3) a medium what speeds up things with lightspeed "the internet"
4) a fiat system out of ballance
5) a manipulation of figures

I trully hope the manipulators keep holding it in hand until all air has gone out of the figures, (have lots of doubts on that) But its need to be positive and will keep trust with Gold.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti

goldenboy
****** $$$$$320.10$$$$$********
Just back from Myrtle Beach, notice golf packages are cheaper this year, anyway as to why gold current prices is different than $335 gold in the 60`s:

****** I bought gold in the late 60`s and it was different than today although potentially as or more rewarding. The first major difference is that gold had been officially controlled or pegged at virtually the same price for over 30 years. Accordingly, it took greater faith to believe that a price change was possible and or likely. The fact that gold was exchangeable at some level until Nixon closed the window helped make it seem more likely a change would occur.
Secondly, inflation had reared its ugly head to a larger degree than today, or at least it seemed that way, as we had enjoyed price stability for so long.

Today, we have had 30 years of gold free floating all over the map. The difference being that in the 60`s it is for sure that it was either an up or sideways investment. Also inflation is different in that we are getting asset inflation but not cost push so much due to imports neutering labour and pricing power.
As to price and opportunity, math tells you $35 gold was a 20 + banger in the 60`s, so you need over $6400 to compare. Is that reasonable? Well, if we look at other goods and go market high to anticipated market high, we have to compare 1980 to today. On a financial assets basis, the Dow was about a 10-fold increase, housing about 3-4 fold depending on where you live and less for cost of living.Wish I had M-3 data for additional comparisons.
Conclusion: The 60`s were likely the better opportunity, but this is probably the best opportunity (save for last year) since then; and who would really be disappointed with a 300% - 1000% increase anyway?
Conclusion; 60`s were better,
Trapper
Sir Kludge
I often wonder when at 3:00 in the morning and reach for a pain pill, and the morphine will help get some sleep from the pain of the broken bones that the bullet caused as it crushed through my ankle. And when the temprature is 90 dergees out side and I pass over a nice pair of shorts just to put my jeans to wear outside because I'm tired of mothers coming up to me and complaing that the scares left from where the shrapnel ripperd out my muscles and flesh upset their kids. And when I try to find a pair of gloves that I can easily cut and sew up so it fit the missing finger. Thank you for your concern and you are welcome, just call me if can help out again. Live small.
RJ
Gandalf the White
ATTENTION Sir Shanti !!! Previously TAKEN Guess !!!
Shanti (11/11/02; 09:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 89274)
$$$$323.30$$$$
---
You were beaten by just a couple minutes !!
Please try again !
<;-)
Sierra Madre
Hipplebeck: on how to support the dollar
It's interesting that you should ask the question; very few Americans (perhaps you are American?) ever think of anything as outlandish as "supporting the dollar". So many Americans just take it for granted that the dollar is the best money, in fact, remember when Americans used to go abroad and ask puzzled Frenchmen: "How much is that in REAL money?"

Classic ways of supporting a currency when you are the finance minister of an underdog country:

1. Raise interest rates, to keep foreigners buying your currency, in order to take advantage of the higher rates you offer. That's many times, just "hot money" that will take off all at once, like swallows, at the very first sign of alarm. Then, you have an abrupt devaluation on your hands. But, the first thing to do, is keep money at home, so you raise interest rates.
2. You can try exchange controls. You would not allow Americans to buy foreign currencies without a "permit". If you run a business, you'd have to have some clearance for payments. This brings the "black market" to life.
3. You can impose restrictions on imports, such as high tariffs, to discourage your people from buying things abroad and having to sell your dollars to buy the foreign currency to pay for the imports. Americans could start by imposing a 50% tax on imported cars. (It is possible to live without MB's, BMW�s, Toyotas, Lexus, etc etc)
4. You can forbid the importation of certain goods - "luxury" goods.
5. You can grant special treatment to exporters. Of course, if you grant them subsidies out of tax dollars, you are sort of defeating your purpose. But politically, it works pretty well - Americans see their goods going abroad, and think it helps support the dollar. Of course, how to get manufacturing going in the USA, to earn foreign exchange, now that the USA has "globalized" itself by sending so much manufacturing abroad, poses a big problem. You'd have to throw "globalization" out the window and turn to "nationalism".
6. What you cannot do, is sell foreign currencies to bring them down, because you haven't got them! Britain lost a bundle back in '92, trying to support the pound. Soros made a bundle.

Actually, once you have to think about "supporting" the dollar, it is really too late! Should have thought about old age, when you were thirty or forty, not at 55!

Sierra
canamami
$$$$$319.30$$$$$$
The answer to the question is: I don't know.

Unlike the 1960's, there is now no US law against owning gold privately. Also, the current gold price as expressed in the Comex, etc., no longer reflects an official price peg to the US currency. In addition, gold no longer constitutes the legal basis of the international currency regime, either directly or indirectly. the currency restricttions which exsited in the 1960's no longer exist, at least to the degree they once did.

Contrariwise, the world is now primed for a major paradigm shift. THe US dollar and the US itself will be facing major challenges in the next few years. Heightening international and cultural tensions may give rise to politically-based currency controls. Hence, there is a serious possibility that gold may reassert its role as the "honest broker" among competing currencies and as the ultimate international currency. This could give rise to a major revaluation of gold in US dollar terms, as in the 1960's.

Paper Avalanche
For the record, I'm no technical analyst BUT
it appears that TPTB had every intention of making this a $4, $5 or $6 down day for POG (noting the severity of the downward spikes) and only have been able to knock it a little below $320/oz. for brief periods of time.

Something is afoot IMHO.

PA
Gandalf the White
$$$$$319.30$$$$$$ Taken !!
canamami (11/11/02; 09:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 89279)
$$$$$319.30$$$$$$
===
I got ya Sir Canamami !!
Thanks
<;-)
Waverider
Veterans Day and Remembrance Day
In honor of all veterans here and those who lurk, to those whom we know and whom we will never know, and to those who have died for our countries...yes, we thank you!

In Flanders Fields

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly

Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

John McCrae (1872-1918)
Waverider
Goldenboy
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/datapage.htmYou will find historical economic data at the attached link - it's quite fun! For instance,

M3 1969.12 615.937
2002.09 8331.986

Cheers,
Waverider
Gandalf the White
usagold.com msg#: 89283)
Waverider (11/11/02; 09:47:47MT
Veterans Day and Remembrance Day
==
Thank you Lady Waverider !!
I could not say it better.
GW
jlfletc
$$$$323.0$$$$$
I don't think that buying gold at $35 in the 60s was like buying gold at $3xx.xx today, because unlike the 60s, gold is no longer price controlled, unless you count the obvious manipulation. Factoring in inflation, and supply, it's a much better bargain at these prices.

makcumka
$$$$ 323.5 $$$$
buying gold now is different than in the 60s because now, from my perspective, the majority of the people in the US are oblivious to what the war or the depression can do to them. In the 60s there were a lot of people who experienced the depression, a number of families whose members fought in the 2nd World War and Vietnam. They had a better understanding of real values in life. For the society of today, who live in debt and watch the war on CNN, the couch and a bag of potato chips is comfort, and ability to borrow is financial security. Gold is cheap.
Gandalf the White
POG CONTEST ! Tick tock, Tick tock, Tick tock, Tick tock!!
GUESSES are SOLID from $319.1 though $323.9 !!!!
ONLY less than 120 Minutes to Go !!
GUESS HIGH or guess low -- But hurry and enter !
The Winning number will be known TOMORROW at the COB on the COMEX !!
otish mountain
$$$$324.0$$$$
In some ways buying gold today is the same as when gold was $35./oz. except more important now to protect ones self than in the late 60's.

Today we live in a world of extreme debt, the credit bubble should be called the debt bubble. This debt will not be repaid unless there is inflation. We here know gold will survive this coming financial meltdown.

otish
Houston
(No Subject)
$$$$332.0$$$$ That is my "kick at the cat" guess.
Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?

The major difference is bullion gold buying was illegal then vs now. All of it has been said on USAGold already: i.e. creditor nation vs debtor nation; saving vs spending; few to no bubbles then vs potential epidemic bubbles everywhere now. The only negative difference was then we are actively in Vietnam where now we are preparing for another Vietnam in Iraq and eventually the Middle East. We don't have peace in the world we have "controlled" rage.

I'm currently maxed out in physical gold and silver as far as my budget will allow. I await the gold equity shares to rocket after $330 is reached. When gold is between $450-600 I will begin cashing out of my gold shares and buy into more physical.

If I could only convince my parents into converting paper CDs into physical. Anybody run across a good article addressing that subject?

I particularly like this forum for its minimal individual personal attacks vs other gold sites. My hat is off to you professional knights and ladies! I think a minimum of a semester of reading USAgold forum should be required reading for economic, financial, political and current events for students taking related college courses. What a profound effect that would have!!
Gandalf the White
WELCOME Sir Houston !!!
Houston (11/11/02; 10:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 89290)
==
Sir Houston, "we have NOT a problem" with your Semester of USAGOLD Forum required reading ! It is at least a FIVE CREDIT course that sticks with one FOR LIFE !!
Thanks !
<;-)
Shanti
$$$$323.30$$$$
Dear Gandalf,
Thanks for the 2nd chance ! But anyway i confess i'am late and leave it up to the esteemed winner....

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti
goldquest
$$$$324.90$$$$
In 1968, I was just completing my second tour as an active participant in the unpopular, "Southeast Asian War Games." About this same time,the first piece of gold I ever owned was in the form of a gold tooth, complements of the U S Army.
Curious as to what gold was doing in the 1960's, I found that in the early 60's, the US $35=1oz ratio was becoming difficult to sustain. Gold demand was rising, US reserves were falling. At the suggestion of US undersecretary of the Treasury, Robert Roosa, the US and eight European central banks formed the London Gold Pool to try and control the price of gold. The London Gold Pool collapsed in April of 1968 when DeGaulle of France insisted on receiving gold in exchange for US greenbacks. From the late 1960's, gold started a climb, with a few setbacks on the way, to it's $800+ peak a few years later. Our host has an excellent chart showing this gold run. It can be found at, http://www.usagold.com/newsviews.html Click on the May 2001 link.
"Is buying gold now, like buying it at$35.an ounce in the very late 1960's?"
YES! They lost control back then and they are losing control now. Just as DeGaulle caused the unraveling in the 60's, any number of things,Euro,war,terrorism,etc., will cause gold to skyrocket at anytime.
TownCrier
Attention: Veterans and servicemen...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.htmlDid you know that USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals offers special pricing on gold orders just for you?

They do!

It is MK's way of showing his appreciation for the service that YOU provide.

You have a friend in USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. Call today for a consultation on your order and enjoy the benefits of professional friendship and gratitude.

R.
canamami
Gandalf: You caught me good!!!

eom
RobotGuy
$$$$324.3$$$$
Unfortunately I was not around to experience the marvelous 60's, but many things happened that I would have loved to have been a part of. Gold at $35 an ounce would have been a real steal here in Canada. By doing a quick little bit of research, I learned that the exchange rate was much closer for Canadians in the late 60's comparatively. Today exchange is roughly 1.56 Canadian dollars for one U.S. dollar compared to 1.06 approx. in the late sixties.
I can assure you that the price of gold in Canadian dollars now is more than ten times what it was in the late sixties, considering exchange differences, however the average household income has not multiplied by that factor as I'm sure you'll all agree.
Less people were considered poor, there were lower averages for personal debt, and more people were employed.

Gold was a steal at $35 dollars an ounce in the 60's. Guess what we'll be saying ten years from now.



Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.
Neubie
$$$$324.1$$$$
As has been stated by many posters, their is a significant difference in the financial environment between the 60's and now. However the reasons to hold gold are still the same, long term peace of mind. Gold, I'll keep mine!
Gandalf the White
NICE JOB Sir Nuebie and Sir RobotGuy !!
THREE SECONDS apart -- AND you filled the gaps !
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
Gold: Power, Security, Independence... Freedom.
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Golden Goal


"For as long as cannons have thundered,
they have echoed
with the sound of men yearning for gold."

-- R. Strauss

RobotGuy
Gandalf, your unending enthusiasm is one very big reason why this forum is so successful.
Thank-you for all of your hard work.

Thank-you Centennial precious metals for your constant sacrafices, and inspiration. I don't know how many people travel through these pages on a daily basis, but I do know the number will be ever inreasing.


Cheers!

RobotGuy.
Gandalf the White
Question to the T. C. --- <;-)
Having only a FEW thing to do -- I was looking at the picture that you posted in message # 89300 !!
IF my eyes do not deceive me -- that "Chest" could not begin to support or hold those contents UNLESS it is made totally of "Kryptonite" !! At the least the LOCK is two to three inches wide and the chest must be 12" x 24" x12" in size !! THEREFORE the contents would weigh OVER ONE TON !!
and one would need a FORKLIFT to move it !
Please tell me that I am DREAMING !!
<;-)
Time For GOLD
$$$$324.50$$$$
(Repost as the other price was already taken)
Is buying gold now like buying it at $35 an ounce in the late 1960's?
Yes, there are many similarities. One of the guides to predicting the price of gold that I follow is the performance of the gold stocks as a leading indicator. Also I look at the relative performances of the Dow, the US$ and the gold price. When taking a look at the late 60s/early 70s I see a particularly strong correlation to today's markets with the 1972-1974 period, especially from May to July of 1973. This period is strikingly similar to the 2 month period that began in late May of this year. In both cases the gold price pulled back even as the Dow continued to grind lower and the US$ plunged. The peak in the HUI that occurred in late May of this year lines up almost perfectly with the peak in the Barrons Gold Mining Index that occurred in early July of 1973. The difference is that when the HUI peaked earlier this year it was well ahead of where the BGMI was at its July 1973 peak. The HUI outperformed the BGMI during 2000-2002 considering that the surge in gold stock prices between January 1972 and July 1973 was accompanied by a 150% increase in the gold price whereas the surge in gold stock prices between November 2000 and May 2002 was accompanied by only a 30% increase in the gold price. After the recent Fall correction, the HUI is now about even with where the Barrons Gold Mining Index was at a similar stage in the 1972-1974 bull market. Based on this relationship, the BGMI portends an imminent rally for gold stocks and gold. I chose $324.30 as my guess. But I have to agree with Richard Russel's recent comment that he sees the DOW and gold ratio crossing at $3,000. I see this as a very big possibility especially viewing the differences between now and the late 60s/early 70s. Especially now that there is such a large gold short, huge derivitive position by several of the major banks and an enormous national debt that spell monetary and price inflationion the pipeline!
Skydog
$$$$$ 324.1 $$$$$
Is buying gold now, like buying it at $35. an ounce in the very late 1960's?

IMVHO...yes! Like Goldquest, I too completed my second tour in "Nam" in the late sixties only to return to an America who's very fabric was being torn apart with civil unrest. Unlike the 60's, however, the cause for the civil unrest we are yet to see will be driven by the breakdown in our society and not war. However, the end result for gold will be the same as it did in the 70's. In other words..."To da moon Alice!!!"

Regards...
Skydog
makcumka
@ Black Blade, msg #89262
Interesting info. The $ - rouble excange rate now is around 32 roubles/$. So, 25 roubles = 1/10 oz, 1 oz = 250 roubles = $320 in gold weight. Comes out to .78/$1. Looking at the face coin value, 250 roubles (1 ounce worth) = $50 (1 ounce). Comes out to 5/$1. Either way, nowhere near 32/$1 ratio.

Same with silver, 2 roubles = 1/2 oz, 4 roubles = 1 oz = $4.50. 0.89/$1 ration. Face value, 4 roubles - $1. 4/$1 ratio. Just wondering if this had any relevance. Maybe, Putin is establishing his gold standard.

I will definitely find out what these coins are going for. If it is close to face value, it is an outstanding buying opportunity.
Gandalf the White
<;-)
Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock Tick Tock !!!The December 2002 COMEX Gold Contract SETTLEMENT Price on :
11/04/02 was $318.7 with a High = $319.3 and Low = $317.5
11/05/02 was $318.6 - $0.1 High = $320.2 and Low = $318.3
11/06/02 was $317.9 - $0.7 High = $318.3 and Low = $317.2
11/07/02 was $320.9 +$3.0 High = $321.5 and Low = $319.3
11/08/02 was $321.7 +$0.8 High = $323.3 and Low = $320.6
11/11/02 was $321.6 - $0.1 High = $322.1 and Low = $320.1

It looks as if Sir Noble1 is the present "KING of the HILL" !! GOOD LUCK !
<;-)
slingshot
VETERANS DAY
A Day To RememberI just ran the STAR SPANGLED BANNER up. Today I will remember those have served in the military and the reasons why they went to war. Over the years I was fortunate to talk to those who served in WWII, Korea,Vietnam, and Desert Storm. Pearl Harbor survivor, Indianapolis survivor,Inchon Vet,A.V.G Flying Tiger, Vietnam (Khie Shan) survivor,and Desert storm.I have listen to their stories with interest.
I have seen their wounds from the ravages of war, no words can describe my feelings.

To those who went in HARMS WAY a special THANK YOU and WELCOME HOME.

I lift my glass of cheer in your HONOR.

Job Well Done. My Brothers.

Slingshot------------<>
Gandalf the White
ATTENTION Sir Skydog --- PREVIOUSLY taken Guess !!!
Skydog (11/11/02; 11:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 89306)
$$$$$ 324.1 $$$$$
==
Please TRY AGAIN !!
<;-)
Aristotle
$$$$ ?X? $$$$
Buying Gold now is not like buying it in the 1960's for several reasons, but primarily Gold is a much better value today with an upside potential that is far more imminent now than it was then.

Fundamentally Gold's value was capped back then by the structure of the international monetary system based on the Gold Standard of Bretton Woods. Convertibility in the framework of a modern banking system succeeds only in subordinating the hard asset to the nominal monetary unit as I've previously detailed. That subordination lasts until the strains on the system reach the inevitable breaking point. In the 1960's, this breaking point could be vaguely foreseen, but there was no clear indication that Gold would subsequently emerge completely free from it's entanglements with the banking system.

It didn't. That's how it's possible that we've got Gold prices today which are ONLY $300ish.

Fortunately, the greater monetary minds have used the learning experience of the last century to recognize the points of instability and non-sustainablility, and over the past three decades have slowly but surely crafted a structure that will unencumber Gold's value from the everlasting downdraft of bank money.

We eagerly await the first primary phase shift that is in sight now, but wasn't in the 1960's. Ka-POW!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Pilgrims Gold
********** $319.00 ************
BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE PICKED IT!
Pilgrims Gold
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Too Late!
Skydog
If I'm not too late...
how about $$$$$ $324.5 $$$$$?